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1. Bunny Vincennes Posted: May 03, 2010 at 10:04 PM (#3521305)Grabow is a major disappointment. Not that I had high expectations but he has been a disaster (caveat, its easy to pick on relief pitchers, but this guy sucks). I think he has had exactly one outing in which he did not allow a baserunner, and that was last Friday when he got a 1-3, K, >|, to end an inning. Other than that he has been terrible. I'm not sure why Hendry isn't finding out if Juan Cruz wouldn't like to come back to Chicago, unless someone else has offered him a shot. If I'm Jim, I would have made the call as soon as I was aware of his availablity, just to see what he's got.
I honestly believe he will turn this around. He's had some good at bats, and is clearly seeing the ball, as he is working counts, etc. I am nervous, though. A couple of games of breakout hitting would do a lot to calm my fears. He's already had 100 AB's, 20% of a season, so that's a pretty deep hole he's dug.
Tracy has been used as a PH 13 times so far and has only started 2 games and besides those two starts he has seen what, 4 innings in the field? I don't expect anybody to look good being treated like that. I think moving forward he should get more regular usage at third base until Aramis turns it around or Chad proves he can't hit better than Aramis. This is a guy who before his injuries was perfectly useful to a ballclub so it isn't like they would be sending Lenny Harris out there or anything like that.
Baker still has the pop but he can't make consistent contact. It would be nice if he could figure that out but if he hasn't figured it out by now he probably is never going to figure it out.
Nady for me is this years Jason Kendall so far. Can't hit anything but is still getting on via walks and HBP. Nady, like Tracy, is suffering from constantly getting one PA a game. He is part of a crowded OF and I don't see him getting a lot of at bats any time soon. I'd keep him around for awhile and see what shakes out.
As for Colvin what I wrote in the last one of these still holds true. I think he is going to come back down to earth fast. I think he is AAAA.
It is May 3rd and basically the season starts tomorrow. Sure they have spotted a few teams some games but they haven't dug themselves a hole and Lou and Hendry should have a pretty good feel as to what kind of team they have. I expect them to do well from here on out. I think 90 wins isn't unrealistic.
Well, that's why I didn't call it bad, and said maybe my hopes for him were too high. Does this mean no Sanchez/DeRosa talk this year? :)
Tracy has been used as a PH 13 times so far and has only started 2 games and besides those two starts he has seen what, 4 innings in the field? I don't expect anybody to look good being treated like that. I think moving forward he should get more regular usage at third base until Aramis turns it around or Chad proves he can't hit better than Aramis. This is a guy who before his injuries was perfectly useful to a ballclub so it isn't like they would be sending Lenny Harris out there or anything like that.
Baker still has the pop but he can't make consistent contact. It would be nice if he could figure that out but if he hasn't figured it out by now he probably is never going to figure it out.
Nady for me is this years Jason Kendall so far. Can't hit anything but is still getting on via walks and HBP. Nady, like Tracy, is suffering from constantly getting one PA a game. He is part of a crowded OF and I don't see him getting a lot of at bats any time soon. I'd keep him around for awhile and see what shakes out.
Oh, I agree it's too soon to jump to conclusions about any of these guys. The Trib had an article today where Lou was saying he's struggling to get Nady time because of how well the starters are playing. He'll start tomorrow in RF against Malholm though. As for Tracy, I think he sucks (and always has, to some extent), so I'm not really hoping to see him more and I don't know how much better he really could be - I think we're seeing about what the best case scenario is (that great 2005 really sticks out, even though he wasn't bad in 2006).
Lou has been pretty consistent with his tendencies to sit the cold hand and play the hot hand or at least move on to another option other than the cold hand. So I think at some point we will see less of Aramis and I think quite naturally Lou will turn to Tracy.
E.g., I'm thinking of Theriot maybe hearing Castro's distant footsteps, or Soriano seeing Colvin's hot start and realizing playing time ain't guaranteed (though the fat contract is).
Might be my imagination, though. But if it's not, sitting Aramis in favor of Tracy a few times might not be the worst idea.
I'm not really interested in finding playing time for Tracy but I'd certainly give ARam some time off -- and maybe he's hurt. Anyway, he's 3rd on the team in PAs while he's usually a guy you want to give a good chunk of rest.
Gorz & Silva -- I'm almost ready to believe some of this is real. Silva's BIP pitcher act depends on not walking anybody and he's doing a pretty good job of that. Will have some UGLY starts when the wind starts blowing out regularly but a full season of 100 ERA+ is not unfathomable (of course that suggests the remainder of the season would be around a 85-90 ERA+ which is generally fine for a 5th starter).
Gorz is the guy that interests me though. With the Cubs at the ML level, he's got 67 K in 67 IP. He's K'd about 9/9 in the minors too. Pitt's silly "pitch to contact and feel free to walk people" pitching philosophy of the last several years may have been what did him in. The Cubs have been very good at producing (and signing) high-K pitchers these last several years. This just might be the right fit for Gorz.
Serenity now. Serenity now.
2010 Cubs so far: 102 OPS+, tied for fifth in the league, second in the league in OBA.
The Cubs likely will be made or broken on their offense. I am still very concerned about it, but they have certainly turned it around in the last few weeks.
Colvin's a better player than he's been given credit for being, but he really needs more minor league time. He's not terribly overmatched in center, so at worst he's going to have a career as a fourth outfielder.
-- MWE
When the hell did this crap start, and how do we stop it?
I'd comment about the team, but, seriously, I think seeing the wave at Wrigley short-circuited my brain. It's also possible that seeing Fonzie hit the ball did that, though.
edited to ad that the stat line has been updated
I completely agree. I think the pen will work itself out, and there's plenty of depth at SP.
Starlin Castro is at least as good defensively as Alcides Escobar (who I've liked from the first moment I saw him play), and he's a better hitter. I liked what I saw last year, and he's only gotten better this year.
Us Cubs fans are weary of how the Cubs treat their prospects. When do you think would be a good time to bring him up? How long until he's ready? For now, Theriot is adequate to there is the gaping whole that usually precedes a premature callup.
Colvin's a better player than he's been given credit for being, but he really needs more minor league time. He's not terribly overmatched in center, so at worst he's going to have a career as a fourth outfielder.
I'm ok with 4th OF being his upside, but he is 24 (turns 25 in Sept). At point do we reach "what you see is what you get" with him?
So, I finally made it to a game for the first time in a couple of years this past Saturday. Whereupon I found my biggest disappointment of the season: the wave. At Wrigley.
When the hell did this crap start, and how do we stop it?
Ouch. I still don't remember seeing it happen in a game I've been too yet, but that is disappointing.
Fascinating, because there's been pretty much two teams that the Cubs have actually managed to hit against, and they're two of the bottom three staffs in the league by ERA+. Fortunately, the Pirates are up next, and 4 of the bottom 7 staffs so far are in the Central, but overall I suppose I'm still very concerned, too.
Say wha'? Where? It didn't make it around the whole stadium, did it? Having sold my Saturday tickets, I feel somehow responsible for this.
Interestingly, the first instance I saw this was sitting in section 105 or so, and there was a large Rainbow Coalition group sitting a couple of sections over near the foul pole. They were a fun group but I wasn't a fan of them starting the wave.
Yes, but 2B is a concern. If he's ready, Castro to SS, Theriot to 2B, Fontenot to the bench and one of Baker/Tracy out of a job makes all sorts of sense. As to when ... June 1 or thereabouts to keep his arb clock from starting too early. (This isn't a claim that Castro is ready, I have no idea. But I love the MWE stamp of approval.)
Colvin just might actually be in the best shape of his life. :-) They say he added 25 pounds of muscle this offseason (whistle and walk away as if nothing is happening) and the power he's shown so far would seem to back that up. This huge power spike can't be maintained of course but he had a nice jump at AA last year so we are closing in on 450 PA of increased power. Even being a 150 ISO hitter vs. a 100 ISO hitter would be huge for Colvin's value (even if just as a 4th OF). I'm glad they gave him the job over Fuld/Hof. I am contractually required to point out that his on-contact numbers are over 400/800 though and clearly he's in for a sizeable fall going forward.
As McCoy has pointed out, Fontenot hasn't been that bad. At least not bad enough for the demands to be that loud. If Castro keeps up this production, it'll get louder. Maybe having Patterson and Pie fail has helped keep the mainstream fan less reliant on the uberprospect.
Sadly, there was a wave at the Sox game last night that lasted for at least 10 revolutions. It disgusted us.
That's funny, because I thought the Cell was where people went for a real baseball experience, not to hang out with all the poseurs who don't really care about baseball.
Well, at first, the left-field bleachers nearest the shrubs tried to start it, but it failed miserably. As it should. A couple of innings later, it looked like one started in the right field bleachers and made it around two or three times.
I fear that, because Derrek drove in the winning runs about a minute after they stopped, someone will take this as confirmation that it's acceptable behavior, and, yes, perhaps even a positive good. And if that happens, I may have to get my smiting arm back in shape.
If it makes you feel any better, some fans had a huge sheet with "Wave" written on it and then stamped out. The fans popped up and help up the banner in the direction that the wave was coming from right before it got to their section.
I remember Harry Caray saying during a game, just before he retired, "they do the wave at Fenway? I thought they had more class than that."
I have no idea why that stuck in my mind.
I have. Cardinals were in town.
11 multi-hit games in his last 13 starts! Before that he was sitting at a .222 batting average and a .512 OPS and had only 2 multi-hit games in his first 13 games. I have no idea how long he can keep this up, the answer is probably not very, but do you guys think this is caused by Theriot abandoning his Dunston imitation of trying for homers? It seems to me that Theriot is going back to his old self of simply going with the pitch and banging out singles.
ZING!
I haven't looked into it, but he seems like a very streaky hitter. He has yet to keep up a solid approach for any consistent period of time. IIRC, he played well early the last couple of years and faded down the stretch. When he's getting on base (and stays attached to that base), he's a very useful player. As I said above, I haven't watched a ton this year so can anyone tell me if he's cut back at all on his boneheadedness? Whether it's true or not, I'd like to think he can hear Castro's footsteps coming; if we're looking for other reasons for motivation, maybe losing arbitration has been eating at him.
I see in fangraphs that his flyball rate is way down this year as compared to last year and his GB and LD are up as a consequence. It really does seem like Ryan is finally using his speed more than in years past.
The Cubs were 2 games under for April and in May they did it again winning two games less than they won. So now they are 4 games under and 6 back. Sure it is possible they could come back but it isn't bloody likely. They got two teams in front of them for the division and another 5 teams ahead of them for the Wild Card. We just hit June but the Cubs are basically playing for a winning record from here on out.
We probably didn't think it was possible and probably everybody thought it wouldn't happen but the Cubs offense in May was actually worse than the Cubs offense in April. Despiter playing four less games in April than in May the Cubs managed to score 4 less runs overall in May. The Cubs offense averaged an anemic 3.86 runs per game. The pitching was largely the same with just a slight uptick in runs per game. Unfortunately that means the bullpen still sucked and the starters were slightly less fantastic than they were in April.
Big Hitters for the month:
Alfonso Soriano: .308/.376/.626 with 9 doubles, 1 triple, and 6 homers
and then. . . . .crickets.
Well, technically Mike Fontenot and Tyler Colvin had a good month but since they were not platoon partners their minimal amount of PA doesn't really add up to one starter's worth of plate appearances.
Mike Fontenot: .347/.407/.633 with 5 doubles, 3 triples, and a homer in 54 PA
Tyler Colvin: .333/.367/.667 with 3 doubles and 2 homers in 30 PA.
Slumping Hitters for the month
Aramis Ramirez: .173/.241/.253 with 3 doubles and a homer in 83 PA
Ryan Theriot: .238/.259/.248 with 1 freakin double
Geovany Soto: .200/.333/.329 with 3 doubles and 2 homers in 84 PA
But really pretty much all the hitters could be in this category. Byrd has been slumping the last couple of weeks, Fukudome is doing is yearly bat migration, and Lee can't put it together.
Big Pitchers for the month
Ted Lilly: 3.21 ERA in 33.2 innings to along with a 1.13 WHIP in 5 starts but thanks to the Cubs offense he is 0-3 for the month. He has gone 6 innings or more in all 5 of his starts so far and has only given up more than 3 runs in a start once and that was 4 runs in 7 innings at the beginning of the month. I thought Ted Lilly was a mediocre FA signing when they got him but Hendry snagged himself a pretty good starter with his purchase of Lilly
Sean Marshall: 2 earned runs in 13.33 innings of work so far. Lou really should be getting this guy more work. He only appeared in 4 games this month and for a bullpen that sucks this bad I'm surprised he isn't riding Marshall more. He is just as effective against righties this year as he is against lefties and this a guy they could definitely let go for more than an innings worth of work.
Carlos Marmol: 3 earned runs in 13 innings of work over 13 games. Again, Lou needs to break from the norm. What is the point of having a setup guy and a closer if you can barely ever use them because your middle relief is blowing the game wide open before you can even get to these guys?
Carlos Silva: People would probably question why he isn't here if I leave him off so he is here. 5-0 in 6 starts this month but I'd say he has only pitched 1 gem so far this month and that was his last start. The beginning of the month saw him get de-BRACKINed and everyone thinking he was going back to his old ways but his next 3 starts put him solidly back into the middle of the rotation type pitcher. A solid #3 or #4 guy.
After that you have some hit or misses. James Russell has been pretty solid but it did give up that lead off homer today. It wouldn't have been a big deal except that the Cubs can't score runs and so it help kill the Cubs. Other than that 3 runs in 13 innings but all three runs were homers so that is troubling.
Slumping Pitchers for the month:
John F'in Grabow: ugh, thank god Hendry has buried him on the DL. Hopefully he never comes off it and another one of his stupid multiyear crap signings.
Pretty much the entire back end of the bullpen. Berg, Gray, Zambrano. . .
Randy Wells has had some solid starts and some bad starts. I guess Gorz got the boot because the Cubs believe Wells is a nice cheap future for them and why scuttle that over a little inconsistency.
Nice future:
Randy Wells
Starlin Castro
Both have been pretty good at times and both have struggled. Both are being given the chance to make it and both appear to be making the most of it. It will be interesting to see what Castro does the rest of the year and unfortunately that might be the only interesting thing to watch the rest of the year. He has already gone through a slump this year and has bounced back nicely. I'm sure it'll happen more as the season wears on but hopefully he can keep himself from cratering.
Things to watch in June:
Starlin Castro
Second Base:
With Castro being installed at short the Cubs moved Ryan over to second and put Fontenot on the bench. At the time Theriot was red hot and Fontenot was scuffling. Since then Theriot has cratered and Fontenot has been hitting the ball well. As much as I have been against Fontenot in the past Lou should stick with his tendency of giving the hot hand the start. Fontenot should be getting as many at bats as possible until he cools off and with Aramis and Theriot slumping badly there should be no shortage of at bats for him. Which leads to the third thing to watch. . . .
Aramis Ramirez:
I think the question now isn't when will Aramis snap out of this but just how bad will it be and can Aramis put up the worst season all time for a guy who is a solid bet to put up a mid 120 to mid 130 OPS+ year in year out.
The Two Carlos (okay how do you make Carlos plural?):
How long can one keep this up and can the other one can get it going again and is this some sort of ying tang thing where in order for one to be good the other is bad?
The Schedule:
In years past looking at a schedule and seeing you got 5 games with the Pirates coming up would generally make Cubs' fans very happy. Unfortunately that hasn't been true this year. On paper June should be a pretty easy month for them. They got 20 games aginst the White Sox, Pirates, Astros, Mariners, and Brewers. They have only 6 games against teams with a better record than them and they are the Angels and A's and both of those teams are struggling to score runs as well. Like I said on paper that is an easy schedule but the reality might be different for the Cubs. As mentioned already the Cubs have struggled mightily against the Pirates, the White Sox games are always see-saw affairs, and depending on how you want to view those AL West teams could be just as good as the Cubs to much better than them.
So that is my May review. If you want go ahead and post it on the main page. If not, well, I hope it sparks some Cubs talk.
I certainly remember thinking that it could get worse. At the time, the Cubs had a lot of guys hitting well, and no one except for Lee and Ramirez who figured to get any better than what they were then. I might have figured that the RISP average might tick upwards, but other than that, it was hard to see where things were going to improve - any improvement from Lee and Ramirez was bound to be offset by comebacks-to-earth by Byrd, Fukudome, Theriot, and likely Soto to a lesser extent (although he's cratered too, as you note). And we're due for a Soriano slump, too, so it might get even worse.
And Randy Wells with a nice future? It's never going to be any better than it is right now for him.
I think Jeff Stevens bears watching. He's struck out a lot of guys in the minors - 10.8 K/9 in over 100 IP in AAA - but has had trouble getting his walks under control (4.4 BB/9 in AAA). Lou's typically impatient with walks out of the pen but his early returns this season have been encouraging. We'll see how it goes.
Castro's hit the skids a little bit, but I hope they're patient with him. It would be stupid to call him up just to sit him (or send him back to Iowa) the first time he slumps but the pressure for Hendry to win RIGHT NOW is enormous and must grow with every loss. He doesn't have the luxury of patience, since Cubs nation will be calling for his head if this team doesn't turn things around. And rightly so.
I'm not talking superstar future but a cheap middle to back end of the rotation option for years to come. With the Cubs payroll the way it that makes Wells a very valuable and important player for the Cubs. In otherwords messing with Wells could very well cost the Cubs tens of millions of dollars down the road.
Castro's hit the skids a little bit, but I hope they're patient with him. It would be stupid to call him up just to sit him (or send him back to Iowa) the first time he slumps but the pressure for Hendry to win RIGHT NOW is enormous and must grow with every loss. He doesn't have the luxury of patience, since Cubs nation will be calling for his head if this team doesn't turn things around. And rightly so.
I don't know, the Cub fans have been calling for his head since almost day one and he has a ton of years left on his contract. I think the team is built to win now but I also think Hendry understands just how valuable producing starters from within is to this team and their payroll limits. This isn't a Dusty Baker led team anymore and it is different than the mid 2000's era Cubs which had no patience for development.
Our nightmare is over. Well, at least that one. We're still Cubs fans.
"The reason we did it was because we needed him in the bullpen," Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild said. "Hopefully, and it looked like the last three or four times out, he got much more aggressive and more animated delivery-wise and let the ball go with a little better sense of purpose. Hopefully that carries over."
This story just gets more wierd. "Given up?" They hardly ####### used him in the bullpen. Seriously. There was something else going on behind this.
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