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   1. McCoy Posted: May 28, 2010 at 04:02 PM (#3545260)
I always said this was a dumb trade on Z's part. I had no idea if Silva was going to bomb or not but I didn't expect it to matter that much since the Cubs had a ton of arms. But for Seattle this was a dumb move because it places the blame squarely on Z if anything should go wrong and the chances are that something would go wrong in this trade.
   2. Brian C Posted: May 28, 2010 at 06:50 PM (#3545359)
I hate to rain on the parade, but I'm not sure how great Silva's really been. Undoubtedly, he had a hot start, but since his first four outings he's slipped considerably:

5 GS, 27.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.95 HR/9

He hasn't really blown up out there with a 1.2-inning/8-run type of start, which combined with those great four starts has hidden that he's essentially the same pitcher he's always been, with a moderate uptick in Ks and a radical decrease (thus far) in BAbip.
   3. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: May 28, 2010 at 07:06 PM (#3545372)
I was certainly one of those carrying the "Silva Sucks" banner but Im not really convinced yet. After all, he carried enormous ERAs despite playing in front of the team that invented defense.
   4. Andere Richtingen Posted: May 28, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3545448)
Don't get me wrong: I'm not "convinced" about Silva and won't be even if he keeps it up all season. Again, think Glendon Rusch. He strung along a solid year and a half as a Cub, but it was right to maintain a skeptical eye about him throughout that period. I think the best thing the Cubs could do right now with Silva would be to trade him.

I also don't think we can gain any insight by splitting up his tiny sample of nine starts either. We have seen Carlos Silva over an entire season pitch like he has over these nine starts, and there is no reason to think it couldn't happen again. He's a guy who throws strikes and gives up a lot of hard contact. Guys like this have good seasons sometimes.
   5. Brian C Posted: May 28, 2010 at 10:12 PM (#3545487)
We have seen Carlos Silva over an entire season pitch like he has over these nine starts, and there is no reason to think it couldn't happen again.

I'm not real sure what this means. Silva's matched his current ERA+ of 127 once in his career, and that was in 2005, when he managed to walk only 9 - yes, nine - batters over 188 IP. He's already walked 11 this year, so...

That's also the only year that he's matched his current K/BB rate. It's also the only year in which he allowed fewer baserunners. Fact of the matter is, we've never really seen Silva pitch like this over an entire season, because that 2005 season didn't really resemble this one. He succeeded in 2005 by walking almost literally no one. Sure, his walk rate is low this year, too, as it has been throughout his career. But it's not any lower this year than he's used to, and his results are much better.

I also don't think we can gain any insight by splitting up his tiny sample of nine starts either.

I dunno, you're probably right. But at the same time, when you do break it down, you see:

Five mediocre starts that are basically in line with the rest of his career
Four very good starts that are way beyond what you'd expect, given the rest of his career

I don't think it's unreasonable to look at those four starts as outliers.
   6. McCoy Posted: May 28, 2010 at 10:23 PM (#3545497)
I can't see how 4 out of 5 are outliers and really those 5 mediocre starts are not really 5 mediocre starts. He had two bad outings immediately after his 4 "very good" outings in which he allowed 9 runs in 10 innings. Since then he has given up 7 runs in almost 18 innings of work. So far in 9 starts he has been a fine pitcher for 7 of those outings.

Interesting sidenote: The Cubs are 8-1 when Silva starts and the only loss was his first start in which he gave up only 1 run over 6 innings.
   7. Andere Richtingen Posted: May 29, 2010 at 01:11 AM (#3545549)
As I said, I don't expect him to maintain an ERA+ of 127, and in fact would be quite surprised to see it. What I would be not at all surprised to see this season is a 103, like he put up in 2007, or a 112, like he put up in 2004. Anything in that range would be great.
   8. Brian C Posted: May 29, 2010 at 10:14 PM (#3545838)
Well, a few more starts like today's and I'll be eating crow myself. 11 strikeouts? Where'd that come from?
   9. Andere Richtingen Posted: May 29, 2010 at 10:31 PM (#3545842)
Well, a few more starts like today's and I'll be eating crow myself. 11 strikeouts? Where'd that come from?

My guess is that it comes in part from a completely reasonable scouting report that said swing early and often.
   10. Brian C Posted: May 29, 2010 at 10:49 PM (#3545848)
...that said swing early and often.

More like, "close your eyes and swing," judging by the few minutes that I saw during the seventh.
   11. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: May 30, 2010 at 06:36 PM (#3546241)
gorz to the pen cashnier up on monday

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