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Indeed.
I'm not keen on Pierre in the first place, but three prospects for a year's rental )never mind the salary dump benefit to the Fish) is way over the top.
I'm not that high on Pinto, so if he's the 'name' in the deal it could lessen the blow. If Wellemeyer were another, that would help as he's out of options and can't hope to be on the roster nezt April.
The best news would be if this turned out to be just another rumor.
And the trading of prospects concerns me. Hendry's suddenly made all those bullpen arms expendable with his new fascination with relievers entering their mid-30s. I'm not thrilled at the thought of giving up Pinto to begin with if Pierre is all we're getting in return.
I don't think the 2006 prospects are that bad. They should be better, and Hendry is undoing his own good work, but there is a significant chance of contention, I think. My guess is that the 2006 Cubs will be projectable as a better than .500 team, but barely.
Back in the 1990s, when you knew that the Cubs had NO chance of contending. NONE. Those were bad times.
But the downgrade from getting Giles to getting those bullpen/Neifi sure feels like it.
ITI has learned from a source close to the Cubs that free agent shortstop Raphael Furcal and the Cubs have all but finalized a deal that will bring the shortstop to Chicago for the next five years, with a mutual option for a sixth year. The source told ITI that the deal could pay Furcal as much as $100 million including the sixth year and "significant performance bonuses" that included winning a batting title, the stolen base title, and a bonus if he plays in 150 games for each of the first three years of his contract.
And there's more:
The rumor goes that the Cubs are close to finalizing a seven player deal with the Texas Rangers that would bring Alfonso Soriano and Kevin Mench to the Cubs in exchange for Jerome Williams, Todd Walker, and three minor leaguers, one of whom is believed to be right hander David Aardsma, and another shortstop Ronny Cedeno. According to our source the two clubs have agreed on which players would be dealt, but what is holding it up is exactly what kind of deal Soriano will want in Chicago.
I wonder who 'the source' is. Levski, perhaps?
I guess it all depends on what the base is. In any case, it sort of sounds like Hendry has a pretty deep pocketbook right now, so I'm not going to get too bent out of shape about this even if the price is exhorbitant. I'm less concerned about the length and dollars of the contract than I am about the ages covered, and five years carries Furcal through age 32.
The best part, of course, is that it marginalizes Neifi.
The rumor goes that the Cubs are close to finalizing a seven player deal with the Texas Rangers that would bring Alfonso Soriano and Kevin Mench to the Cubs in exchange for Jerome Williams, Todd Walker, and three minor leaguers, one of whom is believed to be right hander David Aardsma, and another shortstop Ronny Cedeno. According to our source the two clubs have agreed on which players would be dealt, but what is holding it up is exactly what kind of deal Soriano will want in Chicago.
No Corey Patterson? Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if a big trade or two happened that involved some of these players, but as described here it doesn't solve any of the OF problems, unless the Cubs really intend to use Soriano in the OF, and you consider Mench the solution to anything. It doesn't leave a whole lot for the Cubs acquiring Pierre, but who knows.
Certainly, the trade as described here is terrible from the Cubs' perspective. All that for a slight improvement at 2B you have to sign long-term, plus a mediocre platoon OF? Horrible.
They might suck. They've sucked before. La Troy Hawkins came with far better credentials than either of these guys, and look what happened to him.
He and Soriano are not helping this team's OBA issues. I don't see the Texas trade as necessarily bad but if the Cubs are so flush with cash they should have been looking at Giles.
Remlinger too
Soriano road
2004: .244/.291/.444
2005: .224/.265/.374
Patterson overall
2004: .266/.320/.452
2004: .215/.254/.348
Mench's splits also reveal a player who has never hit outside Arlington and doesn't do much against righthanders. Basically fit only for platooning.
I see it as horrible. Soriano isn't a huge improvement over Walker, and Mench is nothing special at all and a poor fit for a team that needs a left-handed hitting platoon corner OF, if anything. The guys listed are all tradeable, but there's no reason to blow the entire wad on those two players.
If the Cubs end up getting Furcal, Soriano, Mench and Pierre, they'll end up with a very different, much improved lineup, one that I actually like. There would be two fast guys at the top of the order who actually know what they're doing on the basepaths, with good contact skills. The lineup would again be heavily right-handed (another factor that would ensure the marginalization of Murton and Cedeno) but I don't see adding Soriano as any kind of necessity. I'd rather see Hendry put those resources toward another starting pitcher, if not Brian Giles.
It doesn't leave a whole lot for the Cubs acquiring Pierre, but who knows.
I still think Patterson gets traded (with prospects) for Pierre. The Cubs have plenty of live arms left for Florida even after giving Texas a few.
Wow. Just wow. The Furcal signing would be overpaying for premium talent -- which is OK, I suppose -- but I see the Texas trade as a disaster in the making. Is Hendry really that blind to park factors? It will fun to see the fans' reaction when Sorryano puts up a sub-.250 BA this year while Walker and Cedeno combine to hit .300 as Texas's 2B platoon.
A lineup of --
Pierre
Furcal
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Murton
Mench
Barrett
-- looks shiny on paper, and it does have considerable upside, but there are a lot of land mines there. To gut the farm system for that; well, my faith in Hendry as trader par excellence would be seriously shaken.
Not sure this is such a big issue. Soriano had HR totals in the high 30s playing for the Yankees.
A lineup of --
Pierre
Furcal
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Murton
Mench
Barrett
Six straight right-handed hitters. Buh-bye Murton.
Come on now. LaTroy didn't suck at the end, and you were one of the more vocal ones saying so. He was misused, lost favor, and had to get traded. In most other situations, he'd still be useful (and I bet he'll be fine this season).
And I don't even whole-heartedly believe what I posted. I just think there's too much overreaction here (not just us Cubs fans, but this site in general) and I feel like I've got a major venting post building up right now. Just trying to keep things in perspective, that's all.
Yes but I'm always right. Let's keep that in mind for the future, OK?
To explain myself: I'm getting concerned about Walker's age. Soriano will be a larger improvement in 2006 than he would have been in 2005 and the trade will also keep Neifi out of the starting lineup if Furcal is signed. This second factor probably shouldn't be part of the trade assessment but I have to admit it makes the deal more attractive from my POV. Also, the deployment of Mench will play a large part in Chicago's derived benefit.
This is the second time he's been linked to the Cubs in a trade (he was the rumored PTBNL in the Leicester swap) which concerns me. Do the Cubs honestly believe that he is a desirable solution in RF?
And I don't even whole-heartedly believe what I posted.
It's true that the Cubs are better with those two relievers on their roster. I will admit that. I will even say that the Howry signing is defensible though not good. The Eyre signing is absurd.
I remember reading sometime this offseason that Hendry was walking away from anyone who asked for Pie, Cedeno, or Hill. But wouldn't it be smart to trade Hill now? I mean, he's probably as highly though of as possible and he's totally buried by the Cubs now. There's 3 lefties ahead of him, so is he worth that much to the Cubs in the AAA rotation? And what about Mitre? He has to be traded this year, I'd think. Hill and Mitre are too much to give up for Kearns, I realize. But I think something could be worked out.
Come on now. LaTroy didn't suck at the end, and you were one of the more vocal ones saying so. He was misused, lost favor, and had to get traded.
Don't confuse my defense of his continued use in key situations with suggesting he was actually doing a good job. He went from three straight seasons with a K/BB ratio exceeding 4:1 to something less than 2:1 last season.
The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers believes the Marlins will wait until after Johnny Damon signs to trade Juan Pierre.
He also says the White Sox have a better chance to get him than the Cubs because GM Jim Hendry won't part with Felix Pie, Matt Murton or Rich Hill. The White Sox no longer have Aaron Rowand to give up to get Pierre, but they have young outfielders they can afford to part with.
FWIW, some of the Sox fans were saying that there are reports that Williams is not interested in Pierre.
OK, forget about home-road splits and just look at the whole picture:
Age . .OPS+ . .WARP1
25 . . 92 . . . 2.1
26 . . 131. . . 7.5
27 . . 128. . . 7.5
28 . . 98 . . . 3.7
29 . . 110. . . 3.7
Soriano fell off a cliff when he moved to Texas. Did he stop using 'roids? Did he miss New York's fine French cuisine? Who knows, but his reputation is still drawing heavily on those two years in Yankee Stadium, when the world thought he was 24 and 25. Turns out he was two years older and was enjoying what looks now to be a pretty anomolous peak. Of course, he's still young enough to put together a sustained run of excellence at the plate, but his defense has always been very poor. In other words, he's not a bad player -- he's probably a little above average -- but he's also one of the most overrated players in baseball, and I'd hate for the Cubs to pay his perceived value.
Hill and Mitre are too much to give up for Kearns, I realize.
I would do that trade, but I'm higher on Kearns and lower on Hill than most.
I wouldn't say he fell off a cliff. If you look at his raw stats over that period, the seasons all look pretty similar. He had a big drop in XBH in 2004, and that bounced back somewhat in 2005, with a drop in singles instead. My guess is that you can average those OPS+s over the last five years and get a good projection. A lot of the variation is noise in BA. Of course, looking at a player with Soriano's approach at the plate it's easier to conclude that he's a .268 hitter than a .295 hitter.
This is not to say that I am high on acquiring Soriano -- quite the contrary. I definitely think the Cubs should wait 2006 out with Todd Walker, who isn't a much worse player. What makes the potential of acquiring Soriano really scary is that he could easily end up in one of the corner OF positions on this team.
"The Cubs are expected to announce the signing of free-agent utilityman John Mabry within the next day or two"
"Mabry, 35, hit .240 with eight home runs and 32 RBIs with St. Louis last season and can play both corner outfield spots, along with first base and third base. The left-handed-hitting veteran has a .269 career average and is expected to assume the role Todd Hollandsworth excelled in during the first half of '04, before incurring a season-ending leg injury."
What a fitting way for Mabry's career to sputter into dust: as a Cub, stealing playing time from Matt Murton.
He can't use the line about ignoring the year that Mabry had last year before the injury. Murton doesn't look akward in the OF, so there goes that one. Hmmm.... Dusty is much more creative than I am, I'm sure he'll come up with something good.
If Mabry is truly a replacement for Macias, he is an upgrade at the plate (though that's not saying very much). The Cubs *do* need to improve the bench and -- let's face facts -- not only are they not going to stock the bench full of kids, but even if they did, the kids they have will be unlikely to outproduce even the John Mabrys of the world. To upgrade the bench, the Cubs will need to sign guys like this (or better, hopefully).
But we all know Dusty. As much as the Cubs do need a viable backup for Ramirez and Lee, as well as a decent LH pinch-hitter, Dusty will also be reluctant to give Murton a full-time shot and having a veteran guy who can play OF and hit LH will be just what Dusty is looking for. Even Sullivan knows as much by comparing Mabry to Hollandsworth (albeit the 2004 version).
For now, I'm confident we'll be seeing a Mabry/Murton platoon in LF next season. The idea that Murton would get the full-time role is wishful thinking in the first place. The only thing that will convince me otherwise will be if the Cubs acquire not one, but *two* additional corner OFers. To that end, here's what Sullivan suggests:
"The Cubs are also considered the front-runner for Florida center fielder Juan Pierre if the Marlins shop him at the winter meetings, as expected, and they'll also pursue a right fielder, likely through a trade.
The Cubs have mild interest in free-agent outfielder Preston Wilson, whom they pursued at the trading deadline before acquiring and dumping Matt Lawton."
If Sullivan is correct and everything shakes out the way the Cubs plan, we will be looking at the following:
C -- Barrett
1B -- Lee
2B -- Walker (or, if dealt, a Perez/Cedeno platoon)
SS -- Furcal
3B -- Ramirez
LF -- Mabry/Murton platoon
CF -- Pierre
RF -- Wilson
This will do absolutely nothing to retain my interest in the team next season.
To clarify, what I mean is that for the Cubs to displace the Mabry/Murton platoon, they will need to acquire Pierre, Wilson, and *another* OFer to play LF and move both Mabry and Murton to the bench.
I don't see any scenario in which Murton gets the full-time job, at least not out of Spring Training (perhaps if Mabry gets hurt during the season, but that's another issue).
I'd like to see Macias off the roster before I come to that conclusion. As a Macias replacement I have little problem with it, but we know right now that the Cubs need at least a couple of outfielders, and that Murton will, at best, be platooned, so I suspect Mabry's seen as a platoon corner OF.
To clarify, what I mean is that for the Cubs to displace the Mabry/Murton platoon, they will need to acquire Pierre, Wilson, and *another* OFer to play LF and move both Mabry and Murton to the bench.
I don't see any scenario in which Murton gets the full-time job, at least not out of Spring Training (perhaps if Mabry gets hurt during the season, but that's another issue).
Nor do I. I would add that getting a platoon partner for Murton is a good idea, although I would want to plan on giving Murton all PA against LHP and a significant portion against RHP.
Not only do I expect the Cubs to platoon Murton officially, I expect Mabry to get significant PT against LHP. He has a reputation as being able to "hang in" against LHP.
And of course Mabry is a poor choice for that role. He has a career OPS of .751 against RHP, and despite his reputation he has a normal platoon split with a career OPS of .673 against LHP. Whether he's filling in against RHP with frequency for Murton or perhaps for Kevin Mench, that just isn't very good. Better than Macias, sure, but not very good.
The only game that Murton faced Harang, he went 1-3 with a HR against the tough righty.
Bearing that in mind, and factoring in Dusty logic, I expect you're right on the button with your prediction.
I'm not as convinced as you fellas that Mabry is going to have a significant role on the team. My fear with someone like Preston Wilson is that the Cubs pick up a poor starter and will therefore consider him a starting quality outfielder. Mabry has been nothing but a backup since he left St. Louis back in the '90's. Sure Dusty will use him more than he probably should but I'm not convinced they have plans to use him as a big part of a platoon or the opening day starter.
If not, God save the Cubs.
From themselves.
FWIW, despite Carrie Muskat's assurances that the Cubs 40-man roster was messed up because they had another move pending and MLB's offices were closed for the November 19 weekend, it has now been about 10 days further and we still don't know who is/isn't on the roster.
The website lists 41 players (including Howry) and still doesn't list Scott Moore, let alone Mabry.
They didn't, at least not that's been announced. Couple of possibilities:
1) There's a backlog/slowdown at MLB headquarters and the transaction hasn't been "processed" yet (seems doubtful, since Howry has been officially announced and added).
2) The Cubs have in fact dropped a player or two but haven't announced it and have asked MLB not to disclose the info (seems doubtful that the info wouldn't have leaked out somehow).
3) There's actually some flexibility in the 40-man roster during the offseason, so that teams can go over the limit for short periods of time (seems the most likely, but as the winter meetings and the Rule V draft approach I'm sure other teams would like to know who exactly is going to be available via waivers).
In any case, I'd expect an announcement by Friday. In fact, with Furcal seemingly likely to sign with the Cubs, I'd expect several announcements or perhaps a significant 40-man-clearing trade. (I think prospects-for-Pierre is still the most likely, but who knows?)
Who's Our #5.
Among other oversights (such as suggesting Angel Guzman and "Bobby Browlie" as options), Jerome Williams' name isn't even mentioned. Did he get traded away when I wasn't looking?
He also says that he "knows by now" that Kerry Wood will make 20-25 starts next year. That's great news. The Cubs can stop their pursuit of another starter. Wood is apparently fully recovered and ready to throw 140-180 innings in 2006. I bet even Wood didn't know that.
I should know better than to click on articles for Yahoo! Sports, but I couldn't help myself.
My guess is that this is closer to the truth. I don't think there are "secret" transactions going on -- I can't imagine that MLB would allow this -- but I think that it is likely that a mistake was made (perhaps Moore was never added) and no one has bothered to fix the website or the initial media releases.
If anything, I'm just as ticked off that folks like Carrie Muskat or the people at BA haven't followed up to see what's going on.
3) There's actually some flexibility in the 40-man roster during the offseason, so that teams can go over the limit for short periods of time (seems the most likely, but as the winter meetings and the Rule V draft approach I'm sure other teams would like to know who exactly is going to be available via waivers).
If there is any flexibility (and there might be a tad), I can't imagine that flexibility allows a team to skate with an illegal roster for 2 weeks. It's one thing when a team signs a FA and needs to make a corresponding roster move later that day to accommodate it. It's another thing when the issue is left dangling for 2 weeks. I guess stranger things have been known to happen, but I don't figure that this is routinely allowed.
Number of Seasons Over NL Average OBP: 6 (1984, 1985, 1988, 1989, 1998, 2001)
And that's 3 of the 4 playoff appearances in that time as well, plus a pretty decent season in 2001. The 1985 team probably could have contended if they hadn't put every starter on the DL at the same time. Only the 1988 team stands out as undeniably bad, though I guess the pieces were sort of in place for the 1989 division winners.
Instead, it's pretty f'n sad that they've only had six seasons in which they've even had an average OBP (and none under Hendry).
I wonder if they'll carry it on the Score.
Hendry snuck through this year.
Hendry snuck through this year.
I'm FAR more disappointed in the loss of Mateo than in any of the guys discussed. I don't blame Hendry however, since it's surprising that someone, let alone the Cardinals, would take someone who has never played in AA ball.
Read Mateo's stats and weep.
Still, two years in A ball, I wonder whether he won't get lit up this year in St. Louis.
Leaving him unprotected is understandable.
Leaving him unprotected is understandable.
ZiPS likes him.
Still, two years in A ball, I wonder whether he won't get lit up this year in St. Louis.
He had one year in Rookie ball, one year in Low A, and one year in High A. Nothing wrong with that, and he was good at every level, and downright dominant last season.
Leaving him unprotected is understandable.
I'm sure it was a surprise to Hendry, and I don't blame him for that.
I'm not surprised he was unprotected--frankly, I think putting this guy on the 40-man roster would've been goofy. Losing Sisco last year was far less excusable than this.
"The Houston Astros, in need of pitching and always in the market for homegrown stars such as Wood, are listening to offers for center fielder Willy Taveras, the runner-up in National League Rookie of the Year voting. With the Astros showing more trust in Chris Burke during the postseason, Taveras has become a hot name on the trade market.
"Taveras, with his speed and bunting ability, would be the perfect fit to bat behind Pierre. He would immediately become the best outfielder on the roster."
Hilarious.
And Vince Coleman is the bestest baseball player of all time!
Yikes, hope this guy doesn't get to vote for anything more important that what's for dinner at the De Luca house tonight.
ERA, SchmERA. Look at the walk and strikeout rates.
I'm not surprised he was unprotected--frankly, I think putting this guy on the 40-man roster would've been goofy. Losing Sisco last year was far less excusable than this.
Agree on all counts.
Hilarious.
It would be a lot more hilarious if it weren't so close to being the truth.
...if Tavares were available, he would have been a much better acquisition than Pierre.
I think it will be pretty entertaining next year to hear Hendry talk about how 79 wins will not be tolerated.
Good idea. We can express our own intolerance for 79 wins by harping on this incessantly, and getting others to do the same.
I think he meant "the best *defensive* outfielder on the roster", which would probably be true.
He may turn things around, of course, but I was just thinking -- if he doesn't, and July 31, 2004 is the pinnacle of Hendry's career as a GM, when is the date that Jim Hendry jumped the shark? Here are my nominees, feel free to add others:
A. August 19, 2004 -- Signs Neifi Perez to a minor league deal
B. November 5, 2004 -- Resigns Neifi Perez to a one-year contract
C. November 19, 2004 -- Purchased contracts of Russ Rohlicek and Geovany Soto, leaving Andy Sisco unprotected
D. December 20, 2004 -- Resigned Jose Macias to a one-year contract
E. December 27, 2004 -- Resigned Todd Hollandsworth to a one-year contract
F. February 2, 2005 -- Traded Sammy Sosa and cash to the Orioles for Jerry Hairston, Jr., Mike Fontenot, and David Crouthers
G. Other
For now, I'm tempted to go with C -- (leaving Sisco unprotected), but I can be convinced otherwise.
That may be the nadir (I hope), but it's not the shark-jumping point, IMO. I say this because there were several moves you can point to before this that, although not apocalyptic, made no sense at the time.
I picked 11/19/04 because this was the first of these (at least IMO). Getting Neifi in 2004 made some sense. So did resigning him for 2005 -- at that time, it was figured he'd be the utility guy.
Leaving Sisco unprotected for the likes of Rohlicek and Soto made no sense at the time and seems, in retrospect, to be the first of other similarly nonsensical decisions (resigning Macias being the next one).
I look at that move as the biggest and most obvious mistake he's made. I don't know what he was thinking, but I believe he assumed no one would take Sisco and if they did he would likely get him back. The Neifi contract I think best exhibits the lack of vision that defines "jumping the shark." A GM can make mistakes and have a valid vision of the future, but the Neifi contract is in no way consistent with that.
But is that the turning point when things started to go bad? I think it gets pretty difficult to defend some of the decisions between 11/19/04 (the Sisco decision) and 11/7/05 (the Neii 2-year signing). The Enrique Wilson and Kerry Wood sagas come to mind.
Greg Couch: Another Cubs Snooze Conference (discussing the lack of optimism and the hesitancy to take any risks -- Andere will hate the comparison to the White Sox, but it's one I've made several times)
Mike Kiley: Contract Extension Likely for Hendry (discussing the likely extensions for Hendry and Baker, the open 2B situation that seems to lead to Walker being dealt, and Hendry's refusal to place or accept any blame for Patterson's demise)
I think these two stories -- read in the order I'm presenting them here -- do as good a job in explaining my feelings about this team as anything else. I don't believe I could be more discouraged about this team, even if it somehow finds a winning season this year (which I won't bet on).
The Cubs today purchased the contract of OF Angel Pagan from the Mets -- he goes on the 40man roster.
Pagan's a 24 yr old who was in AAA Norfolk last year, where he hit .271/.333/.395, very much in line with his career minor league numbers. I don't see if they dropped anyone and the website lists 40 players.
Either way, the kid has speed and although it looks like he's played all 3 OF spots, my guess is that they'll plant him at CF in Iowa.
You'd think so. The Cubs site hasn't been all that great in clarifying who is on the back end of all their goings-on.
$3.65M/1 yr, with incentives for MVP, CYA etc.
The Cubs website lists Miller as an NRI at this point, though that may change. I'm guessing that Pagan fills the spot vacated by Patterson for now.
That's interesting. I checked the 40 man on the day of the trade and Miller was listed there. I suppose it was just a website goof.
I believe that Carrie Muskrat personally manages the 40-man list that appears on cubs.com. As I understand it, she's an independent contractor with no official relationship to the team, so I wouldn't count on that list for timely or accurate information.
I hope the delay is due to the team's attempt to work something long-term.
I do hope they work something long term, and if they can't finalize it in time, say they'll continue talks in ST (just like they did with Lee and Wood a couple of years ago).
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