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Ian Stewart -- not a promising start to the "maybe he just needs a change of scenery and we'll have a league-average 3B for a few years" idea
Soto -- hopefully just a random slump
Soriano -- a trade does not look likely
Volstad -- actually pitching OK in many ways; 16/4 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP with 2 HR in 22 IP. He's been fine so far despite my concerns.
Marmol -- sigh
As for looking ahead if LaHair continues to hit I could see them moving him to the OF to bring Rizzo up as well.
I'm not impressed with Dale but it is true that he doesn't have much to work with. That being said I don't think the coaches are handling the pitching well. Perhaps they aren't doing a terrible job but I wouldn't say they are top notch in that category. I was also not pleased to see that Dale took a long time to move Bryan up in the batting order. I don't know if he did that because he was new to the clubhouse and needed to support the "veterans" or what but having one of his only two hot bats in the lineup so far apart and one of them stuck at the bottom of the lineup cost the Cubs some runs. I do like that it appears that Dale is letting the team run and that they seem to be doing it intelligently. 71% success rate and it doesn't appear to me that the Cubs are running themselves out of innings.
Wow. So, league avg. LD%, his K rate is at a career low 22.2%, and he's still hitting .160. Maybe the Rockies sacrificed the guy's luck, spirit, or both for all those winning streaks.
I tend to agree with Walt on Volstad -- he just seems to get singled to death and the BBs, while low, always seem to hit at precisely the worst time. I read this morning rumors of his rotation spot being in danger. That would be a huge mistake - not because of what was traded for him, but because with a guy like him, you've got to ride out those streaks where everything falls in. I still think Volstad will be a solid mid-rotation member for a long time, eventually.
Geo Soto really needs to start hitting... With Clevenger raking (though hurt) and Castillo almost certainly major league caliber, Soto is an enigmatic luxury. At this point, Soto is probably the most logical trade chit -- but he can't be stinking up the batters box.
Beyond that... hoo boy... a whole lot of cookage in the OF, no? Soriano's 2011 is looking like a swan song/dead cat bounce from 2010. I don't think you could even pay someone to just take him at this point. Even if you covered every dime -- who wants a LF that hits like an undisciplined, powerless middle IF? I gotta think this is his last year in Chicago and I wouldn't be shocked if they just cut the cord before it's up. DeJesus likewise looks like last year was a portend of things to come more so than just an off year.
I'm warming to the idea of just extending Garza... He's young enough that he ought to still be quite fine in 2-3-4 years and I think he's really grown as a pitcher. He shouldn't be getting more than 15 mil -- but if he'd do say... 5/70? I'd pull that trigger and I hate giving pitchers long deals.
Soto: I'd trade him by the all-star break assuming his numbers get to where they should be. He's a free agent after 2013, so he's really not very valuable to us (not in the sense of OMG we can't compete in 2013!, but in the sense that we only have one year left of him, and if he hits to the point that we still want him, he's not going to be cheap.
DeJesus: Not hitting for power, but his 352 OBP is still respectable. Plus, how can you not love the SSS fun that has been Tony Campana? I'm fine writing him in to the 25 man roster for the next 2 seasons, then cutting bait once he costs actual money.
Garza: Unless his elbow explodes, there's no way he makes less than 15M/Y in his next contract.
He's a fine pitcher, a decent #2 on a decent team, a great #3 on a great team -- he's not an ace... If he costs more than 5/80, then I think he's a chit. I'm not LOOKING to move him - I think he's got another year before he's FA eligible, so there's no rush - but if I were Thed, then I'd be looking to either get a deal signed or start quietly shopping him. He's probably worth more this summer (health assumed) than he is in the offseason. I suppose maybe that changes depending on who's in contention (a small market club might not necessarily want a possible 12-15 mil hit this offseason) this July.
Pitcher contracts haven't exploded at the same rate as contracts for big hitters. Maybe the Matt Cain contract is the new normal, but that isn't for sure yet. Cain also had a much better record of actually preventing runs from scoring than Garza does. He's a bit of a FIP bet. I might guess something like 6/90 for Garza, assuming that this is the year his run prevention closes the gap on his FIP. 5/65 is a decent bet if he turns in another cromulent ERA, excellent FIP year.
Wilso took 5/75 because he wanted to play in LA. He would've got a lot more elsewhere.
I think I'd still try to keep him under 15 per year -- if he'd take 6/80, I'd sign tomorrow.... 6/90 is probably my absolute, take it or leave it ceiling.
fWAR: 10th
xFIP: 8th
FIP: 9th
ETA: And why wouldn't you include CC's "extension" of 5/122 (with vesting option)
On Sabathia, I said it in my post. He was never technically "on the market". The larger point is that there is some precedent for good-not-great pitchers making $100M+, but there's significantly more precedent for them falling in the 5/80 range. Garza isn't Sabathia or Santana or Lee, he's a lot more like Wilson and Lackey and Zambrano and Lowe and Burnett. (Which might be a little scary, when considering locking him up to a longterm deal, I guess.)
I hadn't seen the "since" part before. Sad.
That was the strike dual-season year; play didn't start again until Aug 10. So it's really been even longer than that.
Cubs 2B that year hit 193/249/269 and SS hit 193/277/233. :-)
I had them at 65 so I'm sticking with it.
McCoy asked about LaHair and his BABIP. I'll cheat and just use on-contact numbers. With that K-rate, even if he put up a Ruthian 400/800 on-contact, he'd hit 233 with a 466 SLG. Right now on contact he's hitting 676/1353 -- even for a small sample that's just silly awesome.
Matt Kemp is 556/1190. I'm taking the under. :-)
Soto, Stewart, Soriano, Byrd have all been much worse than I expected; LaHair much better. Stewart really does have to start hitting at some point -- his BABIP this year and last is below pitchers' BABIP and even Don Zimmer would notice if he'd become that bad of a hitter. He is hitting a ton of GB. Anyway, point is, even I expect the Cubs' offense to get better from here although not dramatically (maybe high 80s OPS+).
On the pitching, Dempster was one question mark for me -- I was expecting average-ish but so far he's been excellent so maybe 2011 was just a bump. Already mentioned Volstad and, miracles of miracles, SRJ also has a K/BB of 3 and a HR/9 of .4. So I may have under-estimated the rotation as suggested although overall staff performance has ended up about where I thought. The bullpen has been a disaster even if not quite in the ways I expected.
And, timing, they're coming off 2 runs in 2 IP to lose a tied game in Philly.
Castro with a CS and a PO today so it is 10 stolen bases and 5 outs on bases.
He really looked great last night against Cincinnati. Great velocity and command on the fastball, and nasty splitters as well.
Maine? The reliever who's pitching well goes down? Trust me, I know Maine is no great shakes but not like we've got good options out there.
And can I go back to disaster after the latest meltdown?
"Mr. Marmol? It's about a little boy in the hospital. I was wondering if you could do something to lift his spirits."
"Sure, I can help you there."
"Yeah, well, I promised him that you would throw two strikes."
"You promised a kid in the hospital that I'd throw two strikes?"
"Yeah, what, no good?"
"No, it's no good, it's terrible! I mean, you don't throw strikes like that, it's hard to throw strikes! And where the heck did you get two from?"
"Well, two is better than one."
"That's ridiculous! I'm not a strike pitcher!"
"Huh. Maybe I did overextend myself."
OTOH - I think I'm ready to pronounce myself a believer in both LaHair and Samardzija
1) GABP is a lot more appealing in person than it is on TV. On TV, it always seemed very ordinary to me, but the river setting feels very appropriate for the city, and it's a good deal smaller than I had imagined. They figured out how to do something that I haven't seen in a stadium before, which is to open the upper deck concourses to the field; basically, the two upper decks share a concourse, so you can see the field from the concourse like you can from the concourses from the lower bowl in most other new stadiums. I don't know if Cinci is the first to figure this out, but it's the first I've seen it, and it's a very clever design.
2) My wife doesn't really get the BPJ nickname. I explained it the best I could, but she just doesn't think he looks like Jesus. I said that's not really the point, but it didn't work for her.
3) Speaking of, Samardzija hit easily the longest batting practice HR of the night, into the top of the bleacher section in left, where it landed with such force that it ricocheted back onto the field. He had another long HR, too, into the back of the Reds' bullpen. So maybe we keep the BPJ nickname, only replace "bullpen" with "batting practice". Dude's going to go Zambrano on us at the plate if he can stay in the rotation.
4) LaHair was the next most impressive, consistently hitting balls over our heads (we were six or so rows up in right). He clearly has more power than anyone else on the team. And, of course, he hit one in the game, too.
5) I'm glad we weren't at the game today, because I would have wanted to jump out of the aforementioned upper deck, cursing Marmol's name on my way down. Man, has it ever all gone wrong with him. We had the game on the radio, and Thom Brennaman was just beside himself that any Reds hitter would even bother to swing at any pitch Marmol was throwing. And as much of a blowhard as he is ... he's right. Marmol couldn't get the ball in the strike zone these days if he was standing there putting it on a tee. Obviously Stewart's error hurt him, but still, five batters and three walks issued. He literally couldn't be worse than he's been. It's too bad they can't send him to Iowa, where he could get some regular work and figure things out. With any luck, we'll find out he's hurt. At least that would give us some hope for him in the future.
6) Skyline Chili is overrated.
I was also impressed with GAB during my only visit there in 2005. One thing that stood out to me was how the field seemed even smaller than it appears on TV. Then again, the Reds were thwacking Kerry Wood fastballs into my section, so perhaps that altered my perception.
(Not that I think he's better than Robertson, or even Soriano. But he's still got the shine of the proven closer despite his (small sample size?) early season struggles this year, and picking up a replacement for Rivera allows them to keep the rest of their bullpen structure in place rather than shifting everyone into new roles.)
Marmol: I remember people giving me a hard time (I don't remember where) years ago for suggesting that Marmol was something other than untouchable. Sigh.
Love Eric J's Paul O'Neill redux for Marmol.
Heh... Watching the game on TV with the gf, I tried to explain the same thing... she does agree that he's got a slight Jesus-aesthetic to him, but doesn't care enough about the 2008 bullpen travails to capture the larger meaning... she also said that "Jesus wouldn't have been walking almost five per nine while performing miracles, either". OK, I made that last part up - but I think I'd have proposed on the spot if she had said it.
Also - concur on skyline... cinnamon? Really?
Mark McGwire .387 / .927
Ryan Howard .403 / .821
Jim Thome .397 / .800
Russell Branyan .376 / .784
Manny Ramirez .400 / .750
Barry Bonds .367 / .781
Adam Dunn .367 / .759
Sammy Sosa .377 / .748
Mo Vaughn .398 / .716
Andres Galarraga .395 / .709
Alex Rodriguez .381 / .714
Larry Walker .386 / .705
Miguel Cabrera .395 / .694
Ryan Braun .387 / .702
Carlos Delgado .368 / .718
Matt Kemp .401 / .684
Jim Edmonds .380 / .705
Juan Gonzalez .371 / .707
Jose Canseco .365 / .710
David Ortiz .362 / .695
That really sucks - his value is close to nil right now... I hope he can put it back together to become at least moderately flippable.
I'd say that it's worse than that, his career is close to over. Remember when Ankiel's control problems were so extreme that he couldn't pitch anymore? He never walked 12 batters per nine innings. Rich Hill never walked 12 batters per nine innings. Steve Blass himself didn't put up numbers quite like this until June '73, and of course was never good again.
Marmol's only put in 8.2 IP this season, but it's not like he's been struggling for a week - he was good in August last year, but other than that, he was brutal in the second half last year and has been brutal for a full month now this year.
He's radioactive, and I think it's fair to wonder if he'll ever be a good pitcher again. How many pitchers recover from a near-total inability to find the strike zone over a period of longer than a few games? I'm not asking rhetorically.
Smith was a draftee and Marmol a foreign FA -- good finds both, but in between -- it was always either paying for one in the offseason or shipping talent out for one. What's more - Smith was traded for a decidedly unimpressive haul and now it looks like Marmol wouldn't fetch a bag of balls.
The Cubs really don't seem like they've had problems developing 'prototypical closers' -- plenty of hard-tossers with limited arsenals have graduated through the system in the last 30 years -- but for whatever reason, there's just an awful lot of bringing in Myers, Aguileras, Becks, Smiths, etc... sometimes they work out quite well, sometimes they fail spectacularly.
I suppose they're no worse at this than other teams -- but I guess I just consider 'closer' such a crapshoot, almost fungible thing that I hope the new regime is better at identifying when, whether, and what resources to allocate to the role.
I know that the roster will be in flux all year, but I don't really get it. I'd rather have Maine than Russell even if they're dead-set on having only one lefty, because Russell looks like a pure loogy to me, while Maine looks like his stuff is good enough to be a threat to righthanders as well.
I don't think that's really been a recent problem. Before Marmol, you had Wood, before him you had Dempster on an injury rehab contract, before him you had the Hawkins abomination for a few months, but before that it was Borowski off the scrap heap.
I wonder what type of command Marmol has when he's warming up. Blass never really lost his stuff. He could still find his spots while warming up. But you put a batter in the box, even if it was just a teammate, and the wheels came off.
One of the problems for Marmol is that his command of the fastball has never been too great. It's always been about that slider. And when he was still relatively new to the bigs, he could get away with missing by a lot with the slider, because hitters were still flailing away due to its movement. But now, the command of the slider has weakened a bit, hitters are more patient with him, and when he gets into fastball counts (which is often), he can't spot that straight ball worth a damn.
It's unfortunate to see it unravel like this, because Marmol was once one of the most exciting aspects of the Cubs. It seems like a lifetime ago that Sweet Lou would stroll out to the mound and bring in Marmol to clean up another pitcher's mess, because he was the arm in the pen most capable of missing bats with absurd ease.
I kind of subscribe to the notion that it's nice to have a lights-out closer you can depend on year after year, but it's not impossible to find pieces off of the scrap heap to fill the role (like Tampa Bay has done). So in that sense, this isn't DEVASTATING for the Cubs. It's just a sad story to watch unfold.
Colvin, Pena, Cashner, and Zambrano are doing well for their new teams while Marshall and Ramirez are struggling. Though Ramirez would be an upgrade for the Cubs at third.
On the flip side of that, Marshall's basically been dominant aside than two bad outings.
Cashner is walking a bunch of players but he is also striking out a bunch of players and inducing a ton of groundballs. He has nearly 3 groundballs to every flyball. A .188 BaBIP against is not a knock against him.
No, he's not - 7.6 K/9 is just not very impressive (league average is 7.5), and that's especially true against 6.9 BB/9. Whether he's getting a lot of grounders or not, he's just not going to have sustained success with that kind of K/BB ratio.
This is true, but in all likelihood TWood is just here to make an emergency start, and then the Cubs will call up Cardenas or Valbuena.
Going by 2010-11, Joe Mather looks like a girl bat to me.
Not much longer. They hit 4 in April of that year.
So Nolasco ties Willis in all time Marlins' wins and both were in the Cubs' farm system. The Cubs got basically nothing for Nolasco and got a mediocre reliever and Matt Clement for Willis.
Geez but he's been lights out... His gem last night actually hurt his ERA+ -- now he's at 372. Granted, he's got 3 unearned runs (to just one earned in 35 1/3), but his peripherals are just sterling.
If nothing else, if he can stay healthy -- and so long as doesn't exercise his 10/5 -- he ought to be extraordinarily valuable as a chit later this summer... One year left, figure about ~7 million left owed this year? He could be a top-flight SP rental for just about anyone.
You gotta think all the contenders except maybe the Braves and Cardinals (and then you've got the whole in-division thing, too) are going to be looking hard at another SP. Dempster would be a significant #2 upgrade for even LA and Texas.
I doubt he'll continue to be the NL's best pitcher (look it up - I'd say right now, he's pitching like it), but if he's around 125 ERA+ish, still sporting 9.5 K's/9 with K/BB ratio around 3.5-1, while continuing to be stingy with the HRs? What's a Dempster worth? I have to think he's worth a good haul or a blue-chipper/A prospect. I'm not saying you get to clean out a system for him, but I think it would entirely reasonably to expect a top farm system's near-best prospect in return. Either that - or I think he's easily worth 3 B's.... Consider, too, the Cubs may have a few useful spare parts to toss in, too.
Slight correction on your numbers zonk. You were looking at the ER-HR columns. His R-ER is 6-4.
What's so crazy about Dempster's numbers, is it's not just that he's getting hard luck no decisions. The Cubs are 0-5 in games he's started.
Well, if so - then he's got to be willing to give quite a hometown discount... I'm not opposed to keeping him, but it would have to be substantially below market value. He's 35 and while he's been very, very good -- it's not like he's been a Maddux or Jenkins. No offense to him, but he's not even a Hall of Very Gooder. I think my high limit would be 3/30 -- and I'd much prefer to stay lower. If he stays healthy all year and continues to pitch well, that's probably a fair bit less than he might be able to wrangle on the market -- but we're rebuilding and we don't need any 36 yo's making ~15 a year.
If Dempster stays this good or anything close to it it won't matter if a team needs pitching or not they'll want him for the stretch run.
Remember when we were all debating whether or not Dempster had anything left? Good times.
From my impression of Dempster, this seems like the type of thing he'd go for (but hey, what do I know?).
I was at the game last night and spent much of the day feeling really bad for him (as I do for most Dempster starts). At the very least, he deserves to be on a team that can score more than one run a game.
I could see a team like the Tigers going for something in that vicinity (maybe not their best prospect, but definitely high-end).
Adam Dunn .367 / .759
Oops, forgot about this thread just before that cool list was posted. I like this one as it nicely shows how Ks hurt batters. Dunn hit the ball as well as Bonds, just slightly different contact rates. :-) Not suggesting Dunn could have cut the Ks without sacrificing the production, more a reminder that you need to _hit_ like Bonds if you're going to _not hit_ as often as Dunn and it still adds up to "only" a 128 OPS+.
Not that there are any real conclusions to draw from a week's worth of games, but his power is undeniable, he's been working deep counts all year, and defenses can't overshift against him because he's perfectly willing and able to hit to the opposite field. It might be that his strikeouts earlier in the season were keeping his numbers down as much as his high BAbip was holding them up.
What does rebuilding have to do with it? All things being equal, in fact, a rich team like the Cubs that are rebuilding ought to have a lot of spare cash to toss around. But either Dempster is worth it, or he isn't. The status of the team ought to have little effect.
Hindsight suggests the Cubs would actually be sitting pretty if they had kept Zambrano, Pena, and Ramirez, traded away Byrd for anything in the offseason, let Campana play centerfield and had LaHair play primarily a corner outfield spot.
I think that hindsight would suggest that it's highly unlikely Zambrano would have the same results in Chicago that he's had so far in Miami.
But as soon as I submitted this one, the problem seems to have been fixed.
Yes, it happened again. Strange.
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