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Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Now what?

I’m hungover and at work.  This is probably going to be an incoherent mess.  I probably will end up disagreeing with some or all of this, probably sooner than later.  However, might as well start thinking about how the Cubs are going to approach this offseason. 

The easy route is making some small changes around the edges - maybe splurge on a reliever or two, bring a couple more long shot rebound types - and talk about being healthier and improving from within.  There’s probably some merit to that, and it very well could work.  They could burn it all down - fire Maddon, make a couple big, splashy trades, and spend a ton of money in FA.  Maybe there’s some merit to that too, but that still would be an overreaction.  I expect them to do something in between (wow, really going out on a ledge here, aren’t I), but it still very likely will be more turnover than we’ve been used to lately.  So, let’s break it up by area.

Coaching Staff
I don’t think I’d be stunned if they fired Maddon now, but I’d be a little surprised.  Robothal has a piece today that feels like a little more than just pure speculation to me.  Maybe it’s just someone sending out feelers to gauge the reaction, maybe it’s nothing.  I think I’d like them to move on from Chili Davis; how much credit or blame should he really get though?  The offense is really the problem here, and it’s so incredibly damning to see how the Red Sox and Cubs went in opposite reactions based on him. 

Absolutely, positively will be back: Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Heyward (he’s not going anywhere, and I don’t see any way they get rid of him).  Will not be back: Russell, Murphy. After that, I think everything else is in play.  I have some hope they’ll get *something* for Russell (look at the Osuna deal).  I think moving any of Schwarber, Happ, or Almora would be also selling them at a lower point in their value; none of them really are guys who’ve shown they should clearly be every day regulars, although you could make an argument for giving each of them a chance to play more.  I do think the Cubs are going to go pretty hard after one of Machado or Harper - though I don’t necessarily seeing them being able to outbid the Phillies (so much damn money available) or the Yankees/Dodgers if they really want one of them.  If they do get one of them, it’ll mean at least one of those 3 young guys becomes expendable trade bait.  I keep going back and forth on which one of them I’d prefer the Cubs to go after, and I think today I’m thinking Harper (he’ll cost less) and just putting him in LF (bye bye Schwarber); I really don’t want to see a regular OF of Schwarber/Heyward/Harper.  If they went after Machado, they could move Bryant to LF fulltime (again, bye bye Schwarber) or move Javy back to 2b (the lesser of those two options).   

I think the Cubs need a new backup catcher.  I’m actually ok with Caratini, but they need someone that can give Contreras a lot more rest.  Whether that’s a coaching thing that Joe just won’t play him, or a real reason they don’t like him getting regular appearances, they can’t expect Willson to play this much again and be worth anything with his bat.  I still hope that for Contreras, he just needs more rest and he’ll be fine.  The Cubs need a fulltime 2b and CF, but it very well could be those spots continue to be a rotation of in house guys (Almora/Happ/Zobrist/Bote/Heyward).  I can live with that (and Heyward getting most of the starts in RF) if they add a big bat elsewhere.  However, I have a suspicion that Cubs add someone else from the outside to fill one of those spots.  I like the idea of Bote and Zobrist as bench regulars who each start a few times a week, but think the Cubs are better if neither are counted on to start 140ish times (Zobrst, just due to his age, can’t really be expected to be this good again in this much PT). 

Bottom line, I think the Cubs end up with 2 new starting position players and a different looking bench.

Pick up Hamels’s option is step 1.  Find some way to make Chatwood disappear is step 2.  I don’t see the Cubs spending much money here at all (biggest expenditure will probably how much of Chatwood’s deal they have to eat).  Rotation is then set with Montgomery and Mills are the long men/6th starter options (I think I want Mills on the roster all year next year).  They need to add more guys at the AAA level that could also fill in as starters (who knows what to expect from Azolay, but he’s going to make some starts next year if he’s healthy).  I would expect them to make another Morrow/Cishek range signing, maybe a lefty since Wilson is most likely gone.  You have a solid bullpen base with Morrow (for the times he’s healthy)/Strop/Edwards/Montgomery.  Bullpens are hard to predict, so I’d again expect them to approach it with quantity.  In addition to Wilson being gone, I’d also expect Duensing, Kintzler, and Garcia to be removed one way or another.  Anything else is TBD, and I don’t have any specific guys in mind (I would love for Maples to figure his #### out).

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:27 AM | 408 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 5 of 5 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5
   401. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 11, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5804603)
The flip...she is mine.
   402. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 11, 2019 at 11:34 AM (#5804612)
Seems to me that the Occam's Razor is that the FO realizes it's a bad idea to sign Harper for the amount and length that Harper wants.
   403. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 11, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5804622)
Well, the team has other needs and they're not exactly throwing money around to fill those out either.
   404. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: January 11, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5804625)
Exactly. So until they do sign anyone, it's really the most sensible explanation.
   405. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 11, 2019 at 12:07 PM (#5804640)
I mean, the Ricketts have other significant expenses. Buying the entirety of Wrigleyville requires a pretty major up-front cash outlay, and I assume they're also going to try to purchase the mayoral election, so that's on the books for this year at least.
   406. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: January 14, 2019 at 05:53 AM (#5805207)
Couple days late, but the Cubs settled with all their arb guys (the projected numbers in ()):

Bryant: $12.9mil ($12.4)
Hendricks: $7.405mil ($7.6)
Baez: $5.2mil ($7.1)
Russell: $3.4mil - he losing a chunk during his suspension, but has roster bonuses that can get him back to that $3.4mil. (yet another reason I think he's on the team again) ($3.167)
Schwarber: $3.39mil ($3.086)
Montgomery: $2.44mil ($3.0)
Edwards: $1.5mil ($1.4)

That comes out to be about $1.5mil less in total than projected, so the Cubs salary currently sits at ~$205mil, not including pre-arb guys (Contreras, Almora, Happ, Bote, Caratini), and the tax amount is between $222mil-$225mil.
   407. Walt Davis Posted: January 15, 2019 at 10:51 PM (#5805891)
Regarding Russell ... I think it's mainly a sign they are not going to give him away for free unless the PR hit gets so bad they have no choice.

On the arb numbers, way back at #61 I made some guesses in response to those original estimates ... I did meh as you might guess.

Bryant -- I thought $12.4 was a bit low and said "something in the $13-14 range." I coule note how close $12.9 is to $13 and declare victory but I'll call it a draw where we were both .5 M off.

Hendricks -- I thought $7.6 was a bit low ... Hendricks obviously needs to hire me as his agent. Anway, I lose this one.

Baez -- I thought $7.1 was too high given this being his first real full-time year. I put him at $5-6 M so I'll declare victory here and take my lap.

Schwarber -- I thought $3.1 was a bit high given his PT but I also mentioned the Cubs still seem to like him a lot and $3.1 would satisfy everybodyy. Obviously this Kyle should not hire me to be his agent. Draw.

Russell -- I only indirectly (and pronoun-confusingly) discussed him but said he wasn't in line for much of a raise from $3.2. But neither did they so another draw.
   408. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: January 17, 2019 at 09:26 AM (#5806255)
Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 19m19 minutes ago

Ricketts defends lack of spending this winter by pointing out Cubs one of biggest payroll spenders, cites burdens of revenue sharing, maintenance/upgrades to own stadium & long-term planning taking into account arb raises & free agents over multiple years (Darvish, Chatwood, etc)

Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 18m18 minutes ago

Ricketts: “We like our club. And we’re among the very top spenders. I think that stuff is just kind of misguided.”

And btw, he says, Theo has added players, citing Hamels, Descalso
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