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1. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 10, 2008 at 02:43 PM (#2935510)I don't think Soto made a bad play at home to end the game. It was just one of those things. The real travesty was the pitch selection to Lopez. I don't understand why Marmol and Soto elected to go with a barrage of breaking balls on a full count.
What is Lou's plan with Fukudome? He's been sitting quite a bit lately.
Soriano 2008 with RISP: .280/.377/.617 (130 PA)
With men on: .290/.331/.559 (182 PA)
Overall: .285/.344/.548
Nothing much there.
The hop is lame, and he's got a Dusty-era dumb approach at the plate. But overall, he's not part of the problem.
And the problem is...I'm not sure there is a problem. If the Cubs continue to play like this for the remaining games, then yes, there is a problem, and even if they make it to the post-season they will fall flat on their faces, a book I've already read and don't care to repeat. But I really think they're going to turn it around. I'd rather see them go through this now than in three weeks.
Here's what the Cubs have done in this bad stretch of 9 games:
They've hit .306/.429/.447, which looks pretty good. However, they only scored 34 runs in that period, or 3.77 per game. Worse, 21 of those 34 runs came in just two games, where they scored seven runs in a loss to Houston, and 14 in the win in Cincinnati. The 13 runs in the remaining seven games is pretty bad. Also, they hit nine HR in the last nine games, but all of them came in those two games. They scored three runs or fewer seven times, and of course, lost all of those games, plus one more where they scored seven. Overall this sucks, but I'm not seeing a sign of the apocalypse, more a week of tough luck.
The pitchers have put up a 5.80 ERA, which looks pretty bad. The starters had a 4.65 ERA in that stretch, and made six quality starts. That's not very good, but it's not a terrible stretch by any means. In 52.1 starter IP, they gave up 52 hits, walked 23, struck out 37, and gave up 5 HR. Not great peripherals, but you could see a lot worse in a stretch where you go 1-8. The bullpen had a 8.01 ERA and gave up at least one earned run in each game. In 28.1 bullpen IP, they gave up 32 hits, walked 12, struck out 28 and gave up 5 HR. Actually, not bad peripherals except for the HR -- it just converted into a lot of runs. So, the bullpen has been the major problem here, but we are not looking at a lot of games, and I'm not sure whether it reflects any kind of real trend.
I really think it's just a bad stretch. So far this season, the Cubs offense has been fantastic, better than projected. Maybe they are regressing toward their mean, but I think they'll get their fire back. The recent stretch of bad offensive performances coincided with a tough patch from the bullpen, exacerbated by getting just one start out of Zambrano and Harden in the nine games. Otherwise the rest of the rotation was not terrible.
They've hit .306/.429/.447, which looks pretty good.
Wow. That they've managed to lose 8 of those games (and score so few runs doing it) given those numbers is pretty amazing.
They've hit .306/.429/.447, which looks pretty good.
Wow. That they've managed to lose 8 of those games (and score so few runs doing it) given those numbers is pretty amazing.
Actually, I made an error there: the OBA should have been .393. Still, pretty good.
However, in the seven games other than the two where they scored seven or more runs, it's .282/.355/.317. Five doubles, one triple and no HR in 217 PA.
And as you say, I'm still fine with this team. But like Lou said after the game last night, I'm tired of watching all this failing.
Hopefully Lou continues playing the hot hand and willing to sit the slumping vet. He did it last year and I am hoping he continues it this year.
Edmonds always looked like he was cooked but he got the occasional homer that kept him in the lineup.
August: .200/.371/.509
September: .214/.421/.429
That's just 89 plate appearances, and he's really been protected from LHP, but I'll take it from a guy who can competently play CF any day.
I wouldn't bet against Edmonds' bat right now, but I'm not entirely sure he's a competent CF at this point.
He probably isn't good (-4 DRS in fairly small amount of playing time) but that's not a disaster either. Dial has him at +7.20 overall. I think you could do much worse.
Worth noting, Ramirez is not a great HR hitter, just a good one. Last year in 506 AB 24HR. This year he's had 511AB, and he has 26 HR. He only had one excellent HR season, 2006, and his slugging percentages as a Cub look like this: .578, .568, .561, .549, .501. He's on the decline. Unfortunately Cub brass probably won't realize it until he has two poor seasons in a row.
Aramis is signed through 2011, if it takes them two poor seasons in a row to realize Aramis is in decline then that is good since by the end of that second season his contract will be up and they will not pick up his option.
And his EQAs look like this: .307, .302, .292, .294, .291. I don't think Aramis Ramirez is really a point of concern.
Anyhow, Josh Vitters is their 18 year old 3B of the future and he hit .328/.365/.498 in A- this season.
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