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   1. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: June 18, 2010 at 07:54 PM (#3563374)
My thoughts:

I wouldn't mind holding on to Lilly unless we're getting a real prospect back. I haven't been impressed in any of the dumps Hendry has done before, and he actually got this contract right. Offer him arb, worst case they pay him 1 year low 5 figures. Good chance the draft picks up end being worth more.

I'll be shocked if the Cubs can dump Fukudome and not eat 75% of the contract. At that point, might as well wait until the offseason. IOW, he should be in the 2nd group.

I bet Lee has some value, but I'm not sure he should be gone. There isn't a ready replacement for either this year or next (or is it time to move Aramis over there?). He's not going to be very expensive after this year, so it's not the end of the world if they bring him back on a short deal.

I don't see why Fontenot should be kept and Theriot not. I mean, if anyone wants either, let them have em. They're both expendable. Theriot probably has more value cause he can play SS.

I also don't think Gorzelanny is necessarily a keeper either. But there's nothing wrong holding on to him and letting finish the year in the rotation.
   2. Brian C Posted: June 18, 2010 at 09:15 PM (#3563480)
As far as the major league roster goes, my list to keep looks like this:

Castro
Soto
Marmol
Colvin?

Anyone else I'm listening to offers for.
   3. McCoy Posted: June 18, 2010 at 10:12 PM (#3563521)
5 figures would be steal.

if you offer lilly arb you risk having to pay him 11 to 15 million. I don't think thhey will risk that.
   4. dcsmyth1 Posted: June 18, 2010 at 10:18 PM (#3563526)
I think the Cubs need to focus on who to acquire rather who to get rid of. Some of the players we are talking about getting rid of are solid players. These players can help the Cubs win. The real problem is that the top end of the team has no superstar players. If they want to win, they need a couple of those. So, how can they get rid of their supposedly best players (Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano, Soriano) and bring in 1 or 2 true superstars by free agency. If the contracts, etc., make that impossible, then the Cubs are simply stuck. No amount of rearranging of the minor pieces will make a big difference.

I would never give a player a no-trade clause, unless it was an obvious inner circle HOFer.
   5. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: June 18, 2010 at 10:29 PM (#3563531)
D'oh. I meant, well, I don't know exactly how I meant to say that. But yes, I was thinking that range. For one year, it's not so bad. Someone will offer him a 3 year deal or so.
   6. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2010 at 12:03 AM (#3563640)
the players that trade value are costing the cbs tens of millions of dollars. The cubs have cheap young options they an plug in and then can use the savings in free agency.
   7. Brian C Posted: June 19, 2010 at 04:17 AM (#3563954)
I think the Cubs need to focus on who to acquire rather who to get rid of. Some of the players we are talking about getting rid of are solid players.

Sure, I don't think anyone's saying the Cubs should get rid of guys just for the sake of getting rid of them. Well, maybe Grabow. And perhaps Theriot. But for the most part, I think it's understood that the Cubs would need to get something in return to make the transaction worthwhile.
   8. Andere Richtingen Posted: June 19, 2010 at 01:01 PM (#3564038)
But for the most part, I think it's understood that the Cubs would need to get something in return to make the transaction worthwhile.

The Cubs need young talented players of all types, and they need to free up payroll to invest in developed players who can help them win in the shorter-term. The beginning step in thinking about that is an accounting of the value of their current inventory of players.

I mostly agree with McCoy's list. I also agree that Fukudome is a tough sell, and that Lee has value. Otherwise, completely crappy players are traded for decent talent all the time. Teams often find themselves desperate for a lefty reliever, and willing to deal from some kind of talent surplus they hand over a decent player for one as bad as Grabow. And it might even work out for them.

Hendry simply needs to hang up the "Open for Business" sign and teams will come to him with offers. I really don't expect that to happen, but it should. There isn't a single player on the major league roster that I would consider untouchable. Potential trade partners would probably judge otherwise.
   9. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2010 at 05:10 PM (#3564237)
Derrek Lee is starting to heat up and he might just have respectable seasonal stats come the middle of July. He has put together a good month or so of play and hopefully he keeps it up and helps the Cubs win some games and if the Cubs still don't win games then yeah, I can see him having some trade value.
   10. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 19, 2010 at 06:26 PM (#3564345)
I consider the possibility of Lilly accepting arb to be around zero. If nobody offers something more valuable than the expected draft pick compensation then there's no reason to trade him. Any guesses as to whether he would be a Type A?

The Cubs need to decide right now whether Derrek Lee is going to be the first baseman in 2011. If there are any doubts then he should be gone. The problem, of course, is that the Cubs have absolutely no contingency plan for first base.
   11. McCoy Posted: June 19, 2010 at 06:32 PM (#3564356)

The Cubs need to decide right now whether Derrek Lee is going to be the first baseman in 2011. If there are any doubts then he should be gone. The problem, of course, is that the Cubs have absolutely no contingency plan for first base


The beauty of first base is that pretty much anybody playing is a contingency plan for first base. As someone else stated they can move Aramis to that spot. They can plug in Colvin for that spot.

The only way I see Derrek being the first basemen for the Cubs next year is if the Cubs give him a multi-year deal and do we really want them to do that?

As for Lilly, it depends on the market. I have no real idea how teams are going to spend and I wouldn't want the Cubs to get "caught" with a player accept arb like the Braves got caught unaware when Maddux accepted arbitration.
   12. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: June 19, 2010 at 08:07 PM (#3564471)
Even Castro, Andere? He 100% untouchable, short of a young superstar.

I agree with Pops about Lilly. He'd get nowhere near maddux's deal.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: June 19, 2010 at 08:15 PM (#3564475)
If he's still on the team, the Cubs should definitely offer Lilly arb -- worst case scenario is they get one year of a good pitcher at $13-15 M.

And I'm not worried about the Cubs' plans at 1B. If they can trade Lee for something decent, they should. Some combo of Nady, Fukudome, ARam, Tracy can get us through the rest of this year and there are always mediocre 1B on the market (plus Dunn will be an FA, albeit probably more expensive than he was two years ago).

I don't see why Fontenot should be kept and Theriot not. I mean, if anyone wants either, let them have em. They're both expendable.

Agreed but at this point, Fontenot is a bench player in every team's eyes ... and you simply don't get anything in exchange for bench players. To the extent that some team can be suckered into giving up something of value for one of these guys, Theriot's our only hope (and it's a slim hope).

I think Fukudome has more value than we're giving him credit for. Yes, the Cubs will have to eat some money (so what) but Fukudome is looking more and more like an average corner OF. Rangers, Angels, Braves, Padres and Giants are in need for OF upgrades and, depending on injury/depth concerns, the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Twins might be interested. Of course there are surely plenty of similar players available for trade.

I do tend to think that if the Cubs are going to get a serious amount of young talent in return, Dempster is the guy they need to look to trade ... or possibly Marmol. And given I don't think the Cubs are going to compete over the next 2-3 years, there's no great need to hold onto Dempster.
   14. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: June 19, 2010 at 09:21 PM (#3564504)
Any guesses as to whether he would be a Type A?


As of 11 June, Lilly was comfortably in the "type A" range. He'd have to fall pretty far not to be a type A, and you'd think he would be easily trade-able if he did accept arbitration. If not, he's likely to earn his paycheck.
   15. Dan Posted: June 19, 2010 at 09:26 PM (#3564509)
I'm not a Cubs fan, but I'm kind of surprised no one mentions Soriano in the "who plays 1B after Lee leaves" discussions. He started out in the infield, and his outfield defense has deteriorated with some of the injuries to his legs. He seems like a pretty good fit as a guy to move to first if you want to free up an OF spot for Colvin.
   16. Andere Richtingen Posted: June 19, 2010 at 09:29 PM (#3564514)
Even Castro, Andere? He 100% untouchable, short of a young superstar.

Yep. The jury is still out on him as a player as far as I'm concerned. If it were a different organization I would probably have a different opinion. Of course it is extremely unlikely that he will be traded and it would be odd for another team to offer anyone young and promising for him. He has great talent, and shows enough flashes of brilliance at a very young age that you can see the great potential. But he also has the typical rough spots that you tend to see in Cubs position prospects, and Cubs position prospects never pan out as stars long-term. You can bet on that like the S&P 500. The Cubs may get a few cheap high quality years out of him like they did with Corey Patterson, and that is actually a very significant thing, but I'd rather see him swapped for a position player that's a bit further along in an organization that knows how to develop hitters.

The Cubs need more players like Castro, not fewer, but if the right offer came along, sure I'd take it.
   17. Andere Richtingen Posted: June 19, 2010 at 09:35 PM (#3564516)
I think the reason to trade Theriot is that he has a pretty high perceived:actual value ratio. He has a reputation as a good defensive starting SS, as a fast guy, and as a reasonably good hitter (his BAs vary but he has hit .300 for a season, and puts stretches together where he hits for good BA).
   18. McCoy Posted: June 20, 2010 at 05:21 AM (#3564673)
I meant to respond to the "why Theriot and not Fontenot" question but I forgot since I was typing from a Palm for awhile. I think it has mostly been answered in a manner similar to my view. Basically I'd trade Theriot because he is more expensive, doesn't really bring the Cubs more value than Fontenot, and is viewed more highly, I believe, within the baseball world. Keeping Theriot is probably going to cost 4 to 5 million for next year. Keeping Fontenot is probably going to cost the Cubs 1.5 million or so. For a team with a tight budget those millions are important.

Plus while I've never been high on Fontenot I've also always believed that Theriot is a player that lives and dies with his batting average and he is getting to the point where he is not or won't be good enough to sustain a decent batting average.
   19. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: June 20, 2010 at 05:53 PM (#3565036)
Well, Lou more or less said "I give up" in his post-game interview yesterday. Roll out the sale, boys!
   20. McCoy Posted: June 20, 2010 at 06:35 PM (#3565065)
I didn't read that from his statements.
   21. McCoy Posted: June 20, 2010 at 11:24 PM (#3565230)
From statements from this Sunday's post game interview it doesn't like Lou told his team or anyone else for that matter "I give up".
   22. Brian C Posted: June 21, 2010 at 03:40 AM (#3565334)
Trading Castro at this point sounds like a great way to get made fun of for the rest of your life. I mean, a 20-year-old (and a young 20 at that) shortstop who's a little overwhelmed at the major league level but still holding his own? Patterson was nowhere near that level at his age - the comparison just doesn't hold.

If he doesn't pan out, he doesn't pan out, but I don't think you can give someone like him to someone else without getting an actual superstar in return.
   23. dcsmyth1 Posted: June 21, 2010 at 09:07 PM (#3565998)
What about Theriot? He is now a 2bman with a slg of .312 and very few walks. Why does he deserve regular playing time when they could platoon Fontenot and Baker and have above avg production at 2b. The Riot should be riding the pines, and should be one of the first guys they trade.
   24. Spahn Insane Posted: June 21, 2010 at 09:30 PM (#3566029)
So do the Cubs take a flyer on Edwin Encarnacion? (I'm not a particular fan of his, mind you, but he'd be an upgrade on what we're running out there now, and he'd probably come cheap. Then again, the season's probably a lost cause, and since Encarnacion's not any sort of longterm solution, I'd probably leave well enough alone.)
   25. McCoy Posted: June 21, 2010 at 11:40 PM (#3566122)
See if he can play second.
   26. Spahn Insane Posted: June 22, 2010 at 12:08 AM (#3566140)
Heh. The EE thread is reminding me what I'd forgotten about his defense, which is that it's pretty damn awful. Probably bad enough I'd rather not tear my hair out watching him, whatever position he's playing.
   27. Brian C Posted: June 22, 2010 at 03:08 AM (#3566235)
They really ought to have shopped Theriot around as soon as they started thinking about calling Castro up (and maybe they did, for all we know). There were never any problems with 2B that Theriot was going to be able to fix, and putting him over there certainly hasn't helped his trade value.
   28. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: June 24, 2010 at 05:45 AM (#3568595)
So who's the first to get traded? We're nearing July and the Cubs will likely have the same record as the Mariners by this time tomorrow. Time to get real and start breaking off trade pieces.
   29. The Original SJ Posted: June 29, 2010 at 08:50 PM (#3574552)
I think Nady has some value. I mean, not much, but I can see him going back to the Yankees as a 5th outfielder.

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