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Hall of Merit
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Wednesday, February 11, 2004

1919 Results - Keeler & Kelley gain immortality

A couple of old Baltimore Orioles, Wee Willie Keeler and Joe Kelley have been elected to the Hall of Merit. Keeler made it in his fourth year of eligiblity and Kelley was on the ballot 6 years.

First year eligible Jimmy Sheckard (the only new player to receive a vote) moved in at #6, between holdovers Joe McGinnity and Bob Caruthers. Other than that, the pecking order remained largely unchanged.

In 1920 Jimmy Collins will be the top returning candidate, followed by Charlie Bennett and McGinnity.

Bob Caruthers finished 7th. Frank Grant moved past Sam Thompson into 8th place. Rube Waddell finished 10th.

Rk   LY  Player             Pts Bal    1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 1    2  Willie Keeler      827  45   11  7  6  4  4  5  1  2  1  1  1     1     1
 2    3  Joe Kelley         768  45    7  7  4  6  3  3  2  1  4  3  5
 3    4  Jimmy Collins      718  44    4  9  4  3  4  2  2  3  3  2  4  2  1  1
 4    5  Charlie Bennett    638  36   11  2  5  3  2  2  5  1  1        1  1  1  1
 5    6  Joe McGinnity      616  43    2  4  4  4  6  2  2  2  2  4  2  2  3  2  2
 6  n/e  Jimmy Sheckard     501  39       2     3  6  5  3  3  2  3  3  2  2  1  4
 7    7  Bob Caruthers      495  35    4  3  4  2  3  1     1  1  2  3  2  6     3
 8    9  Frank Grant        476  36       1  5  3  4  3  1  6  1  1  1  2  5  2  1
 9    8  Sam Thompson       460  33    2  3  4     2  4  1  3  2  3     4  1  1  3
10   10  Rube Waddell       389  32    1     1  3  4  1  2  3  4     3  1  4  1  4
11   11  Lip Pike           331  24    1  3  3  2        3     2     3  3     3  1
12   12  Hughie Jennings    326  23    1  2  4     2     3  3  1  1  1  2     2  1
13   13  George Van Haltren 315  28             2  1  3  4  1  2  1  2  5  4  1  2
14   14  Jimmy Ryan         288  25             1  1  2  1  4  2  5  3  3  2  1
15   15  Jake Beckley       284  24          1     2  2  1  3  2  6  4     1  1  1
16   16  Dickey Pearce      274  20    2     1  3     2  1  1  1  3  3  1  2
17   18  Clark Griffith     266  28                      3  2  1  4  4  3  2  5  4
18   17  Hugh Duffy         257  21             4     4  3     1     3  2     3  1
19   19  Pete Browning      170  13       1     1  1  1  1  1  3  1  1  1        1
20   20  Cupid Childs       146  15       1                    2  3        4  4  1
21   23  Frank Chance       102   9             1        1  2     2     1  1     1
22   21  Addie Joss         101   8                   1  2  2  1  1     1
23   24  Mickey Welch        99   7       2           1     1  1              1  1
24   22  Vic Willis          89  10                   1        2        1  1  3  2
25   26  Jim McCormick       67   8                      1     1              5  1
26   25  Sol White           61   6             1        1              2        2
27   29  Charley Jones       58   5                   2        1           2
28   34  Ed Williamson       54   7                         1           1     2  3
29   27  John McGraw         47   3    1           1                          1
30   31  Harry Wright        44   3             1        1  1
31   30  Lave Cross*         33   4                               1     1     1  1
32   32  Fielder Jones       33   4                                     2  1  1
33   28  Herman Long         28   3                            1           2
34   33  Mike Tiernan        25   3                            1              1  1
35   38T Tom York            24   2          1                                   1
36   41T Roy Thomas          23   3                                  1        1  1
37   35  Tony Mullane        22   2                1                             1
38T  38T Jim Whitney         14   1                      1
38T  37  Denny Lyons         14   1                      1
40   40  Levi Meyerle        12   1                            1
41T  41T Jimmy Williams       9   1                                     1
41T  43T Deacon Phillipe      9   1                                     1
43   43T Cy Seymour           8   1                                        1
44T  --  Fred Dunlap          7   1                                           1
44T  45  Harry Davis          7   1                                           1
46   46T Silver King          6   1                                              1
*won tie-breaker 4-3 on individual ballots.
Dropped Out: Tip O'Neill (36), Sam Leever (46T), Jack Powell (46T).
Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 11, 2004 at 01:16 AM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Marc Posted: February 11, 2004 at 02:02 AM (#521825)
Looking to the future, I've always felt that the number of ballots is a better predictor of ultimate electability than the number of points. McGinnity will eventually pass Bennett, e.g., as his 5th and 10th place ballots turn to 2nd and 7th place ballots, unless Bennett gets on some more ballots. That's the theory, anyway. See also Clark Griffith with his 28 ballots. Those are 28 ballots he can move up, while several players ahead of him might only be able to move up 22-23-24 ballots.

With this in mind, I counted how many times each player clearly was rated in voters' top 25s. This is a very unscientific method because many voters did not clearly identify their runners-up, but I'd say about 2/3 identified at least some. So here goes.

(There were 46 ballots, a record I believe!)

Name Ballots 1-15 Ballots 16-25 Total Ballots 1-25
   2. Chris Cobb Posted: February 11, 2004 at 03:15 AM (#521827)
Thanks, Marc, for collecting that data. It's interesting to see a bit more clearly what's happening Below the Line. And amazingly enough, I find that I am interested in who gets the 22nd spot next year. I guess that's why I have fun here . . .
   3. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: February 11, 2004 at 05:13 AM (#521828)
(There were 46 ballots, a record I believe!)

I count 47 first place votes, including the McGraw-er way down below.
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: February 11, 2004 at 05:28 AM (#521829)
Chris,
   5. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: February 11, 2004 at 05:35 AM (#521830)
Howie - I'm going off the leaderboard here. 11, 7, 4, 11 - that's 33. 2, 4, 2, three 1's - that's another 11 - 44 total. 2 with Pearce, 1 with McGraw. I'm assuming the official leaderboard doesn't have a ballot counted twice.
   6. OCF Posted: February 11, 2004 at 05:47 AM (#521831)
And 47 2nd place votes, and 47 3rd place votes on the official leaderboard. My own tally sheet turned into a corrupt file and I never rebuilt it, so I can't confirm any other details.
   7. Chris Cobb Posted: February 11, 2004 at 06:06 AM (#521832)
The 47 members of the 1919 electorate were

Tom H, Rusty, daryn, Karlmagnus, MattB, Andrew Siegel, Craig B, John Murphy, Marc, Chris J., Chris Cobb, Jim Spenser, Sean M., Rick A., dan b, Eric C., Clint, Yardape, sean gilman, Rob C., OCF, Rob Wood, Dan G., Al Peterson, Favre, ed, Ron Wargo, Patrick W, Philip, Brad G., jimd, Adam Schafer, Mark McKinniss, Howie Menkel, KJOK, yest, RMc, Don F, Esteban Rivera, Jeff M., Ken Fischer, JoeDimino, MichaelD., Devin McCullen, Brian H., Max Parkinson, Carl Goetz
   8. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: February 11, 2004 at 06:28 AM (#521833)
Someone mentioned that the "elect of the elect" could be told by looking at who got in on their first ballot. I don't really agree with that, because of the vagaries of who comes on the ballot when, but I thought people might be interested. So here's a list of the current inductees by how many years it took them to make the Hall.

Elected in 1st year (* indicates finished 1st in voting): Anson, Barnes, Brouthers*, Clarke, Clarkson*, Connor*, Dahlen, Davis*, Delahanty*, Ewing, Gore, Hamilton*, Hines, Kelly, Nichols*, O'Rourke*, Rusie, Ward, White*, Young*
   9. Sean Gilman Posted: February 11, 2004 at 09:00 AM (#521834)
Here we are with the 1919 HOM Game, featuring Eddie Cicotte and the Chicago White Sox and Dutch Ruether and the Cincinnati Reds.
   10. Marc Posted: February 11, 2004 at 03:40 PM (#521835)
Devin, that was my thought about the Inner Circle being first ballot winners. I agree it's not a perfect method but it is an easy one. (Easy for me to say, since you did the work.)

For the record--9 players finished 1st in the voting in their 1st year on the ballot.* 11 others were elected in their 1st shot. And 16 were elected 2nd year or later. 9 out of 36 = 25%. So it's interesting if not perfect.

*Brouthers, Clarkson, Connor, Davis, Delahanty, Hamilton, Nichols, O'Rourke, White, Young

A "real" Inner Circle would almost surely have Anson in place of O'Rourke and/or White, but it's close.
   11. DanG Posted: February 11, 2004 at 07:25 PM (#521837)
I use a similar method to Marc?s theory of Most Ballot Mentions as the leading indicator of future elections. Call it the Election Money Spot theory.

First, estimate the number of future HoMers on a given ballot. By my reckoning, this has varied from 7 to 14 during the course of our elections. For 1919 let?s guess ten. So any Top 10 vote puts you in the money -- a voter is saying, de facto, that you belong in the HoM. Recent elections indicate likely future induction for: Collins (36 top ten votes), Bennett and McGinnity (32), Sheckard (27), Grant (25), Thompson (24), Caruthers (21), and Waddell (19).

Actually, when I say there are ten HoMers on the 1919 ballot, it?s not necessarily the top ten finishers in that election. There are only three holdovers here that are certain to make it: Collins, McGinnity and Bennett. The other five could come from among any of those players finishing 6th to 19th. It?s the infamous Gray Area.

My method, as well as Marc's MBM theory, is subject to the shifting sands of electorate opinion. For example, Hugh Duffy. In 1919 he finished 18th in voting; in 1913 he was 5th. He was in the money from 1907-15. My, how wrong we were then, eh? With Flick, Keeler and Kelley now gone, is he worth a reexamination? Is Duffy really 15 places worse than Kelley?

Or Caruthers. He was in the Money 1899-03 and 1916-19. In 1906 he finished 12th; by 1911-12 he was 20th, behind guys like Tiernan and McCormick.; now, he has surged up to 7th. Which placement is right?

The question is, are we sure that the doors of our Hallowed Hall should swing open for Sheckard, Grant, Thompson, Caruthers and Waddell? While possibly excluding forever Pike, Jennings, Van Haltren, Ryan, Beckley, Pearce, Griffith, Duffy and Browning? In 1920, consider carefully those first ten spots on your ballot, the Money Spots. These are the spots that will advance towards election during the candidate drought 1924-32.
   12. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: February 11, 2004 at 07:28 PM (#521838)
I think what you might need to do under Patrick's system is to compare the points they received to the theoretical points they'd receive for finishing in the place they did. So if Fred Clarke comes in 2nd in a 2-player election, you'd compare his points to (# of voters x 23). Otherwise, you're just penalizing him for retiring the same year as Cy Young, which doesn't seem fair. (The alternative is to give an average - 23.5 points in a 2-person election, 23 in a 3-person, but then Cy Young winds up with MORE than 100%, which doesn't seem right either.)
   13. Marc Posted: February 11, 2004 at 09:16 PM (#521840)
>Recent elections indicate likely future induction for: Collins (36
   14. Chris Cobb Posted: February 11, 2004 at 09:36 PM (#521842)
I didn't count how many backloggers we are likely to elect by 1932 (e.g. total to be elected minus newly eligibles who are likely to be elected).

What's that number? And if we know that number, then we know how deep on the current ballot we are likely to go, and then we can start splitting hairs about whether it is more likely to be Thompson or Waddell.


That number, to keep things interesting, is impossible to establish with any precision because the early Negro League stars are entering the ballot, and we have no way of knowing how they will do with the electorate.
   15. Marc Posted: February 11, 2004 at 09:54 PM (#521845)
Sorry to say this list is just jammin' with former Twins. Willie Banks and Frankie Rodriguez conjure up some just really great, great memories. Not.
   16. Sean Gilman Posted: February 12, 2004 at 09:28 AM (#521849)
I have no idea why Jackson didn't play. . .I didn't take him out of the lineup and he is the default starter in left. . .maybe someone got to him in the time between my setting the lineups and clicking on 'simulate this game'. . .
   17. Rick A. Posted: February 12, 2004 at 07:04 PM (#521854)
Sean,

Thanks for posting the HOM game. It was a strange game, even in the make beleive, virtual world. Both Joe Jackson and Edd Roush missed the game.
   18. Marc Posted: February 12, 2004 at 07:28 PM (#521855)
How often is a pitcher the Player of the Game who gives up 15 H+BB?
   19. Sean Gilman Posted: February 12, 2004 at 08:21 PM (#521856)
Roush is missing too!?!

That's it, the gamblers have gone too far, I'm replaying the game:
   20. sean gilman Posted: February 12, 2004 at 10:06 PM (#521859)
For the CF/LF, you can't change who plays what in the SimMatchup (but you can in the leagues). For some reason, it uses fielding pct. instead of range factor to determine the default setting.
   21. jimd Posted: February 24, 2004 at 01:20 AM (#521861)
BTW, for those who care about such things as positional balance. For the 1896-1905 period, 1/3rd of the games played by HOMers were played by LFers. We've got Clarke, Burkett, Kelley, and Delahanty active during most of this period. This tops the old record of nearly 25% of the games played by HOMers that were played by 1Bmen during the early 1880's.

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