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Monday, March 22, 2004

1923 Ballot Discussion

Quite a new class coming on the ballot and only one electee this year. Wonder who it’ll be . . .

 WS   W3  Rookie Name-Pos (Died) 
655 180.1  1897  Honus Wagner-SS (1955)
446 115.2  1899  Sam Crawford-RF (1968)
361 100.1  1901  Ed Plank-P (1926)
268  70.8  1903  Johnny Evers-2b (1947)
231  58.6  1903  Chief Bender-P (1954)
157  28.7  1906  Hans Lobert-3b (1968)
124  35.0  1909  Jim Scott-P (1957)
129  32.9  1909  Chief Meyers-C (1971)
139  25.1  1907  Mike Mowrey-3b (1947)
137  23.4  1907  Bobby Byrne-3b (1964)
128  26.8  1903  Cy Falkenberg-P (1961)
113  26.0  1905  George Gibson-C (1967)
Negro Lg   1901  Rube Foster-P (1930)

Thanks to DanG for compiling this list:

HoMers and candidates who died in the past year:

HoMers:
Age Elected
 69 1903 Cap Anson

Candidates:
Age Eligible
 81 1882 Wes Fisler
 70 1896 Orator Shaffer
 67 1896 Joe Gerhardt
 62 1902 Sam Thompson
 59 1902 Tommy McCarthy
 53 1907 Nig Cuppy
 52 1905 Billy Rhines
 43 1918 Jake Stahl

Future Candidate:
Age Eligible
 27 1928 Austin McHenry
Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 22, 2004 at 04:11 PM | 221 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   201. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 01, 2004 at 04:35 PM (#523355)
Oh wait, they say they're not using raw data. Well, that explains why my numbers are a little different then. Still some use for me yet!
   202. Chris Cobb Posted: April 01, 2004 at 05:17 PM (#523356)
Chris J., while they're doing the same thing you are, their data are not nearly so complete as yours -- since they just give leaders, they leave out pitchers in the middle, and they don't give us season-by-season figures, either. I, for one, rely on getting season-by-season RSIs from you!
   203. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 03, 2004 at 06:43 PM (#523357)
Retrosheet now lists the starting pitcher for every game ever played from 1871-2003. Guess I know what I'll be doing with my free time the next few days. Cool!
   204. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 03, 2004 at 08:25 PM (#523358)
Clark Griffith's RSIs for his entire career (no adjusted W/L records yet - I'll post those when I can get them - may take several days as I need the Macmillan 'cyclopedia from the library to find out how many relief W/L he had. At any rate, here's his RSIs:

1891..117
   205. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 03, 2004 at 09:11 PM (#523359)
Bob Caruthers (jeez, I never guessed that the first guys I'd check on once the 19th century became available would be Clark Griffith & Bob Caruthers!). And since he's BC, I'll include his OPS+ for the year in parathesis (figure out how much of his run support is attributable to himself on your own - your guess is as good as & probably better than mine). FWIW, in 1888, even though his stats list him as having 43 GS, I find him 44 times in the game log. Here he is:

1884..118 (113)
   206. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 03, 2004 at 09:29 PM (#523360)
Complete career RSI info for Joe McGinnity:

1899..102
   207. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 03, 2004 at 09:41 PM (#523361)
Complete career RSI info for Rube Waddell. He gains an extra start in 1900:

1897..18
   208. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 03, 2004 at 09:53 PM (#523362)
And Vic Willis:

1898..103
   209. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 03, 2004 at 11:46 PM (#523363)
And the only other 19th century pitcher still receiving considerable support - Smiling Mickey:

1880..99
   210. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 04, 2004 at 02:11 AM (#523364)
Got adjusted W/L for Cauthers & Welch (screwed up on the others, forgetting to write down their RA):

Bob Caruthers:
   211. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 04, 2004 at 02:15 AM (#523365)
That's all the main candidates, but since we're about to hit the dead spot (last chance for longshots to get elected) anyone else anyone here would like to see RSId?
   212. Jeff M Posted: April 04, 2004 at 03:00 AM (#523368)
I can't help an ineffable feeling of smugness settling over me.

I think that must be indigestion Karl, because (1) the RSI is just part of the information mix and (2) it shows that Caruthers doesn't top Mordecai Brown, much less Mathewson and Lajoie.
   213. Chris Cobb Posted: April 04, 2004 at 03:05 AM (#523366)
Well, I'm interested in seeing pretty much as much data as you are willing to prepare. Pitchers I'd like to see, in order of interest, more or less:

Jim McCormick
   214. Chris Cobb Posted: April 04, 2004 at 03:12 AM (#523369)
And I'd like to see

John Clarkson

too.

I've done some very quick eyeball comparisons of RSI numbers to the team average run support numbers I had been using as part of my wins above an average pitcher calculations. No firm conclusions yet (there'll be a lot of number crunching before I have those) but

Clark Griffith got better support than team average, in general. He's going to slide, though I don't know how far yet.

Joe McGinnity's 1899 & 1900 RSI is pretty closely in line with team average. 1899 RSI matched team average almost exactly; 1900 RSI was notably but not spectacularly above team average. His overall standing won't be affected.

Bob Caruthers' RSI is pretty much in line with team averages over his career, so I don't foresee my evaluation of him shifting all that much, though insofar as it does shift, the cumulative effect will be slightly upward.

Vic Willis' 1898-1900 numbers are cumulatively pretty much in line with team averages, though each season individually is off a fair amount. Don't think his ranking will be much affected.

Rube Waddell's 1899 & 1900 numbers are likewise pretty much in line.

Mickey Welch's RSI numbers are quite interesting. For Welch's early seasons, the RSI numbers are right in line with team average support, but for most of his big years in New York, 1884-1888, his RSI is below team average support, so he looks better than I had estimated, though I can't say yet by how much. I'm quite curious to see if those extra runs show up in Tim Keefe's run support record . . .
   215. karlmagnus Posted: April 04, 2004 at 03:23 AM (#523370)
Jeff M, Brown's presumably going into the HOM and he didn't hit. Caruthers' problem with getting into the HOM is not the keen, even fanatical devotion of his supporters, but the number and implacable hostility of his opponents. Hopefully the new data will shift the opposition a bit.
   216. karlmagnus Posted: April 04, 2004 at 03:40 AM (#523367)
Wonderful stuff, Chris J. As one who, in non-Honus years has had Caruthers and Welch 1-2 on my ballot since McVey made it in 1914, I can't help an ineffable feeling of smugness settling over me. I will try to fight it, but may not succeed! :))

Hopefully the EOBC and ideally also the EOMW will modify their opposition sufficiently to see them elected in the "dead period." Even if not, there will surely be years after 1960, with 3 elected per annum, when there are no good candidates and ghosts of long-dead ballplayers walk the earth.
   217. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 04, 2004 at 03:43 AM (#523371)
Bob Caruthers' RSI is pretty much in line with team averages over his career

Which would mean his run support was actually a little worse than it should have been over the course of his career. The teams should have scored more runs on days Caruthers was hitting for them than not.
   218. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 04, 2004 at 04:36 AM (#523372)
Whew!

Well, by my reckonin' I've sat through & done the grunt work on 2783 games today. What a testament to wasted time! No one expect me to even remotely maintain that pace (especially since I have to work almost all day tommorrow). FWIW, I just retrosheet'd Cy Younger, Jim McCormick, & Tony Mullane. I should have their RSIs up tommorrow - mid-day if lucky. Don't expect their Adjusted W/L for a few days - Monday if everything goes well, but maybe not until Wendesday. Next up: Tim Keefe.
   219. Chris Cobb Posted: April 04, 2004 at 05:01 AM (#523373)
Well, by my reckonin' I've sat through & done the grunt work on 2783 games today. What a testament to wasted time! No one expect me to even remotely maintain that pace (especially since I have to work almost all day tommorrow). FWIW, I just retrosheet'd Cy Younger, Jim McCormick, & Tony Mullane. I should have their RSIs up tommorrow - mid-day if lucky. Don't expect their Adjusted W/L for a few days - Monday if everything goes well, but maybe not until Wendesday. Next up: Tim Keefe.

Many thanks!! But don't knock yourself out! I don't figure the change in assessment from RSI data will be so drastic that we'll be wanting to elect McCormick or Mullane ahead of Crawford and Plank. . .
   220. Howie Menckel Posted: April 04, 2004 at 11:28 AM (#523374)
In other news, Howie Menckel will finish second in the 50-man Primer1 NCAA pool if UConn wins on Monday (losing 127-125 to Magicboff). If they lose, I'll keep my current fifth place...
   221. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 04, 2004 at 03:41 PM (#523376)
Many thanks!! But don't knock yourself out!
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