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Monday, August 09, 2004

1932 Ballot

I hope Joe doesn’t get mad at me for creating this ballot thread. :-0

Of the new candidates, Babe Adams, Wilbur Cooper, Hooks Dauss, Stuffy McInnis, Jose Mendez, Dobie Moore,  Louis Santop and Ross Youngs are the strong ones this year.

We’re back to electing two players again this year. Strong holdovers who will give the newbies some competition are Rube Foster, George Van Haltren, Clark Griffith, Lip Pike, Jake Beckley and Hughie Jennings.

Remember: only you can prevent forest fires.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 09, 2004 at 08:03 PM | 171 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Brent Posted: August 14, 2004 at 04:25 AM (#797059)
This week I tweaked my system for evaluating pitchers (the info on ChrisJ’s site was very useful), and also reviewed players from the 1870s and 1880s. As a result, 2 players I missed last week make it onto this week’s ballot – Vic Willis and Charley Jones. Also 3 newly eligible players make it on – Santop, Cooper, and Mendez. With Pearce’s induction, that means 4 players from last week’s ballot had to drop off – Childs, Waddell, Ryan, and Evers.

My 1932 ballot:

1. Louis Santop: Considering offense, defense, and longevity, he’s clearly one of the best catchers to date and an easy # 1 pick.
2. Hugh Duffy: I find it easy to rank Duffy at the head of the outfield crowd because he had much more impact in 11 good seasons than Van Haltren had in 13. Led the league in RBI in 1891 and 1894, 8 seasons in top 10. Led the league in R in 1890, 7 times in top 10. The star of the forgotten 1892 league championship series. An A+ defensive outfielder.
3. Tommy Leach: Led the league in R in 1909 and 1913, 8 seasons in top 10. Led league in 3B and HR in 1902. Similar to Sheckard. An A+ fielder at both 3B and CF.
4. Hughie Jennings: According to WS, one of the best defensive SS of all time, and I believe it. Best player in baseball, 1896-98.
5. Rube Foster: I know the evidence is sketchy, but I still think Foster is the best pitcher on the ballot.
6. Vic Willis: I overlooked him last week. Willis, Griffith, and Cooper look to me to be very close – all quality pitchers for a number of years, but not dominating. I’ve placed Willis first because he pitched more innings, but I really don’t see much difference among them. Willis led league in ERA+ in 1899 and 1901, 5 seasons in top 10. Led league in IP in 1902, 9 seasons in top 10. An outstanding pitcher for 10 seasons: 1898-99, 1901-04, 1906-09.
7. George Van Haltren: 8 seasons in top 10 for R. Peak wasn’t great, but was very good for a very long time. 13 seasons with 20+ WS.
8. Spotswood Poles: After Duffy, the outfielders are so tightly bunched that I really have no certainty where Poles should rank, but I see him as almost as good as Van Haltren.
9. Jose Mendez: He was an awesome pitcher for about 5 years and a contributor for many more.
10. Roger Bresnahan: I lowered him a little this week – last week I gave him too much positional credit considering the seasons he spent in the outfield. 7 seasons in top 10 in OBP.
11. George Burns: 5-time league leader in R. Led league in OBP once, in walks 5 times, and in stolen bases twice. 3 seasons with 30+ WS.
12. Clark Griffith: Better W-L record than Willis or Cooper, but that’s mostly a combination of run support and “luck.” Led league in ERA+ in 1898, 5 seasons in top 10. An outstanding pitcher for 9 seasons: 1894-1901 and 1903.
13. Joe Tinker: Defensive contributions played a huge role in the success of the Cubs. His 7.28 fielding WS/1000 innings is the highest to date for a SS with 10,000+ innings.
14. Wilbur Cooper: 7 seasons in top 10 for ERA+. Led league in IP for 1921 and 8 seasons in top 10. An outstanding pitcher for 10 seasons: 1914 and 1916-24.
15. Charley Jones: Makes my ballot this week after I decided to give him credit for his blacklisted seasons. Led league in RBI in 1879 and 1883, in top 10 for 6 seasons. Led league in R in 1879, in top 10 for 5 seasons.

Not on my ballot:

Lip Pike: To quickly summarize what I’ve talked about on the discussion thread – I think OPS+ and related measures (EQA, RC) can give a misleading picture of offensive value for the game of the 1870s. Because of all the errors, 35 to 45 percent of run creation in the 1870s isn’t captured by the batting statistics. My best guess is that Pike’s career OPS+ of 155 had value, in terms of wins and losses, more similar to an OPS+ of 135-40 20 years later. This is not an argument about the quality of play of the time, but about the gap in the statistics because of batters reaching base and scoring on opposition errors. While Pike surely was an excellent hitter, in the proper context I think his offensive value was likely more comparable to Mike Tiernan than to Joe DiMaggio. With a relatively short career and a mix of good and not-so-good seasons, that’s not quite enough to make my ballot.
Jake Beckley: He was never more than a very good player. Not one of my top 30.
Cupid Childs: I see him as about the same as Evers and Doyle; all 3 are just off my ballot.
Jimmy Ryan: His rating is hurt by the years 1893-96 when he missed games and didn't do much. He just misses my ballot.

I'd place Ross Youngs about 25th and Babe Adams somewhere in the low 30s.
   102. Brent Posted: August 14, 2004 at 01:04 PM (#797327)
A correction. In my comment on Duffy, I should have said that Van Haltren had 14 good seasons. Otherwise the comment still stands.
   103. OCF Posted: August 14, 2004 at 09:05 PM (#797806)
Just making sure the live ballot thread doesn't fall off the hot topics list.
   104. dan b Posted: August 15, 2004 at 02:31 AM (#798408)
1.Santop Big Bertha in a landslide!
2.Duffy (1). 2nd in 5-year peak, 1st in 8-year and 10-year, PHoM in 1912.
3.Griffith (1) 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, elected to PHoM in 1913.
4.Bresnahan (24) Big position bonus to fill the void behind the plate. HoM will be flawed if we do not induct at least one Major League catcher who played between Buck Ewing’s retirement in 1897 and Gabby Hartnett’s debut in 1922 – as The Old Professor said “You have to have a catcher….”. SABR dead ball era committee has him #1. Highest ranking available player by NHBA rankings. PHoM 1928
5.Jennings (10) – PHoM in 1908. 5-year peak 5th best of all eligible players to date behind Wagner, Baker, Delahanty and Lajoie. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar.
6.Waddell (3) I like his peak and K’s. 2nd to Joss in WS/IP. 2nd best LHP to date. PHoM 1926.
7.Poles Second Negro Leaguer to make PHoM (1929). Bill James and the Cool Papa’s survey agree.
8.Chance (13) –5 times one of the top 12 players in the NL, 4 times one of the top 5 hitters. Best 1B of the era. NHBA rank of 25 puts him in the BJHoM. PHoM in 1921. The Peerless Leader merits more attention here.
9.Leach (4) 4th in 8-yr peak, 2nd in career. PHoM 1926.
10.Browning (17) – Leads in WS/162, elected to PHoM in 1906.
11.Doyle (8) NHBA rank of 20 put him in BJHoM in 1926. PHoM 1930.
12.Willis (2) – 1st in career, 2nd in 3-year peak. By WS, best NL pitcher in 1899 and 1901. 2nd best in 1902 and 1906.
13.Burns (2) 3rd behind Jennings and O’Neill in 3-year peak, 2nd behind Duffy in 8 and 10-year peaks. Best hitter on the ballot.
14.Van Haltren (5) 5th best 10-year run on ballot, 4th best hitter.
15.Joss (10) 1st in WS/IP. Great pitcher belongs on more ballots.
16.Mendez
17.Veach (9) – 3rd in 8-year peak and 10-year run.
18.Cooper (4)
19.Foster Has a lot of support, but of Negro League pitchers who played a significant amount of their career in the dead ball era, he clearly was not as good as Williams, and may not have been as good as Mendez or Donaldson.
20.Donaldson
   105. Rob_Wood Posted: August 15, 2004 at 02:34 AM (#798411)
My 1932 ballot.

1. Louis Santop -- great Negro League catcher
2. Jake Beckley -- career value proponent
3. Larry Doyle -- great hitting second sacker
4. Rube Waddell -- a truly great SO pitcher
5. Addie Joss -- a truly great WHIP pitcher
6. Lip Pike -- a great early hitter
7. Harry Hooper -- please give him another look
8. Cupid Childs -- a very good early 2Bman
9. Roger Bresnahan -- multitalented star
10. Tommy Leach -- another multitalented star
11. Charley Jones -- great player, blackballed
12. Ed Konetchy -- very underrated first sacker
13. Clark Griffith -- early pitching star
14. George Van Haltren -- keep on trucking
15. Mickey Welch -- I've bumped him onto my ballot

I did not vote for Rube Foster or Hughie Jennings since I am not convinced that either is as good as the long career guys at the bottom of my ballot.
   106. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: August 15, 2004 at 02:30 PM (#798584)
PHOM inductees this year are Louis Santop and Roger Bresnahan.

1932 ballot:

1. Mickey Welch: There are a number of borderline pitching candidates kicking around now. He’s got the career totals to put him well inside the border. In 1904, Amos Rusie waltzed into the HOM on his 1st try, with fewer seasons, innings, wins, and a lower WL% in many fewer decisions. 28 years later, Smiling Mickey’s still waiting while his career’s being analyzed down to the most minute details available. (PHOM 1929)

2. Rube Foster: Unquestionably great. Did he pitch enough? I’ve decided he did. (PHOM 1929)

3. Louis Santop: No doubts about him, either. Third may be too low. (PHOM now)

4. Pete Browning: Monster hitter, even considering AA discount. 8-time STATS all-star including 1 each at 2b & 3b. .745 OWP is 8th all-time (1876-1931). (PHOM 1927)

5. Jake Beckley: At or near the top at his position for about 10 years. Long, steady career, lots of gray ink. 3 STATS AS. (PHOM 1926)

6. Roger Bresnahan: Positional boost moves him up, and I think his performance in non-catcher roles shows his quality rather than detracting from it. (PHOM now)

7. Hugh Duffy: Solid WS and WS/162, MVP in ’94, excellent defense.

8. Larry Doyle: No questions about his offensive credentials. There are some about his defensive ability, but if he were substandard, wouldn’t McGraw have moved him elsewhere?

9. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career, McGinnity-like stats but spread out over more years. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

10. Rube Waddell: MVP/CYA in 1905, good ERA & ERA+, lots of strikeouts.

11. Jose Mendez: Comparison to Waddell seems apt, so he goes here.

12. Bill Monroe: Made 4 of Holway’s first 6 all-star teams, the last in his next-to-last year at age 37.

13. Tommy Leach: A+ defender at two right-spectrum positions with solid offensive numbers.

14. Cupid Childs: 6-time STATS all-star, good WS rate, good defense, underrepresented position.

15. Spotswood Poles: There’s enough to suggest brilliance that I’ll put him ahead of the “glut” of outfielders, who don’t suggest that at all.



In 1931 top 10, off ballot:
Ryan & Van Haltren: I just don’t get the excitement over these two. (A few people who place them high on their ballots don’t seem too thrilled, either.) Solid careers, but few standout seasons.
Jennings: Their antithesis. Exceptional peak, but not much else. I like some of both.
Pike: Squeezed off by the newcomers; was on my ballot last year.
   107. Esteban Rivera Posted: August 16, 2004 at 01:02 AM (#799734)
The drought is almost over. I can start to hear the sound of a raging flood that will come soon.

1. Louis Santop - Best new candidate. Best catcher of the deadball era. Best choice for the top spot.

2. Lip Pike - One of the best players in early baseball. The pre-NA numbers confirm what I have believed about his early career.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the player's league.

4. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

5. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

6. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

7. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

8. Hughie Jennings - A historical monster for five years.

9. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. However, I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

10. Rube Foster - Have looked at Foster once more and have concluded that the evidence does support him being one of the best pitchers of his time

11. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Charley Jones - Great hitter and one of the top outfielders of his time. Shorter seasons and blacklisting distort the actual statistical accomplishments Jones would have had.

13. Roger Bresnahan - He has his favorable points such as his offense and being versatile. However, playing time and defensive issues make me a bit wary of going higher with him.

14. Tommy Bond - The only other 70's era candidate that I feel is a viable candidate besides the ones already on my ballot. Was an outstanding pitcher for a stretch of five years. Arm gave out but was the best for what I feel is a long enough time for me to give him the last spot on my ballot. Caruthers without the hitting.

15. Frank Chance - Was an outstanding player when he played, which wasn't much outside of his peak.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

George Van Haltren - Consistency but not the best at postion.

Jimmy Ryan - I'll take Van Haltren's consistency over Ryan's ups and downs.

Cupid Childs - Would have made it onto my ballot if it weren't for Santop this year. Not off my radar screen yet.

Dobie Moore & Jose Mendez - Both fall into my next five off ballot. Have to further digest the information until I can reach a more solid determination on their worthiness.

Ross Youngs - Did have a good start to what looked could be a Hall-worthy career but the circle of life happened.

Out of the three new ML pitchers (Adams, Cooper and Dauss) Cooper has the best shot of ever reaching my ballot but is not that close.

Stuffy McInnis - Behind Konetchy who is not on my ballot either.
   108. Guapo Posted: August 16, 2004 at 04:56 AM (#799961)
1. Rube Foster- The most dominant player on the ballot, and I believe a greater player than Santop.
2. Louis Santop- The right candidate, at the right time- a deserving inductee.
3. Larry Doyle- Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence.
4. George Burns- Terrific leadoff man, perennial MVP candidate for the Giants. Bill James ranks him higher than Joe Kelley and Jim O’Rourke(!)
5. Wilbur Cooper- He was one of the very best pitchers in his league for 10 years- unless you completely discount the NL from 1914-1924, he meets the standards of the HOM.
6. Gavvy Cravath- I don’t see anyone else on the ballot who had a comparable 5 year run at the top of the league.
7. Ed Konetchy- The best first baseman of his time, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played.
8. Frank Chance- Keith Hernandez comp? An OBP stud who was an offensive star, albeit for a short time. Konetchy’s got a better case though.
9. Clark Griffith- could and maybe should rank higher.
10. Roger Bresnahan- No longer the best catcher on the ballot, which drops him a few notches.
11. Lip Pike- Others have made the arguments, and they’re convincing. The premier outfielder of his time.
12. Ross Youngs- Guess I’m a Giants fan and a peak voter... this is without any additional credit for his untimely death. Youngs was a terrific player- just didn’t live long enough to accrue career “points.”
13. Jose Mendez- Surprised he ranks this low- thought he would be higher. Might move up in years to come.
14. Cupid Childs- I just can’t deny him a ballot spot. He wasn’t a dominant player, but his run of excellence at 2B is ballot-worthy.
15. Hughie Jennings- sneaks on to the ballot. I’m obviously taking a stand in support of short career/high value guys this year.
   109. Guapo Posted: August 16, 2004 at 04:59 AM (#799964)
Desolation Row:

George Van Haltren: The lowest ranked member of the outfield glut for me, he seems to have surged ahead of the other contenders for reasons I don’t understand.

Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career. Konetchy and Chance were the best of their eras.

Jimmy Ryan: I’d take Jimmy over GVH based on peak. Ryan’s not a bad candidate, but he’s going to have to wait to get a vote from me.

Hugh Duffy- He’s made my ballot before. Pike, Leach, Duffy, and Fielder Jones are difficult to differentiate for me.

Rube Waddell- We’ve elected a bunch of his mound peers- I don’t know we need any more.

Mickey Welch- Similarly, I’m taking a break from voting for 1880's pitchers. I’m keeping him on the radar and maybe he’ll get a vote in the future, but I think that era’s quite well represented at this point.

Pete Browning- I have him ahead of Ryan, a notch behind Leach, Duffy, and Fielder Jones, which means he’s probably a long shot for the ballot.

Tommy Leach- I’ve voted for him before- he’s in my top 20.

Incidentally, am I missing something or does it seem like there are no good candidates with lengthy AL service?
   110. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: August 16, 2004 at 05:45 AM (#799995)
I definitely agree with the person who said this year someone will be getting in just because he happens to be there - finding #2 for my PHoM this week has been an exercise in frustration. I'm going with Childs, but I have 18+ hours left to change my mind.

And I've missed 1 election, because Joe closed the balloting early that week. (My fault for not checking the thread enough.) Pike slipped off for a week in 1905. Jennings has been on continuously since 1908.

1. Louis Santop (new) If there's a catcher on my ballot, he has to be at #1, I guess. Seems to have a similar career to Bresnahan, but he did it better. His defense may have been a little shaky, but he hit enough to make it worthwhile.

2. Lip Pike (2) I don't think anyone below him on the ballot was among the best of his time as long as he was. The numbers show he was one of the five or six best players of the '71-'77 era, combined power and speed, and played important defensive positions. The information from Marshall Wright via David Foss compares him favorably to his compatriots already enshrined in the pre-NA period. Made my PHoM in 1919.

3. Cupid Childs (3) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is short, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, and ultimately, that uniqueness keeps him ahead of Ryan. Makes my HoM this year.

4. Jimmy Ryan (8) The new WARP pushes Van Ryan back closer to Griffin and Duffy, but I still think they're a little bit better. Very good players for a reasonably long time, but don't think they were ever great.

5. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Have him close to Childs, but I'm just less certain he was really good enough to make the HoM


6. George Van Haltren (7) Back behind Ryan, because Ryan's peak is just a little better and I don't think the pitching helps him that much.

7. Spotswood Poles (6) His numbers (as we have them) do seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation seems good. Slips behind Van Ryan because I decided to stop relying on James when everybody else seems to point the other way.

8. Hughie Jennings (4) Hughie moves around a lot, I guess because how much I value peak tends to shift from week to week. Still a more impressive peak than anyone else on the ballot, and when he was good, he was good at everything.

9. Jose Mendez (new) I do think he was better than Foster, because I have more trust in how much he was playing outside his peak. I'm not really certain about putting him this high, but I am sure I'm not holding anyone worthy back.

10. Clark Griffith (11) I reevaluated all the pitchers, and he came out ahead in the White Leagues. I do feel like we're short on pitching and I should have them ranked higher, but every time I look at them I say "These guys?" He's not really that much better than Breitenstein or Hawley for the 90s, but he did stay around a lot longer. That's not enough to get him any higher than this.

(10A Sam Thompson)

11. Tommy Leach (11) Long career w/out much peak, but hit OK for defensive positions and fielded extremely well. Most WS Gold Gloves of anyone in my consideration set.

12. Bobby Veach (12) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.

13. Rube Foster (17) I realized I had to have him close to Mendez. I appreciate the hard work done on his behalf, but I'm really not sure how much he was pitching outside his peak. He feels like an Ed Walsh-type career, and I'd have to be more certain he was near that level to put him in.

14. Harry Hooper (14) A little better peak than Beckley, but a similar type of guy. Pretty low OPS+ for a corner OF candidate.

15. Mike Griffin (15) A great fielder and a good hitter. Similar to Ryan and Van Haltren, but his career was cut short (OK, because he walked away). New WARP gives him a boost (actually back to where he was in the version before that), but I can't put him any higher than this.

Off Ballot:

16. Jim McCormick (9) Wait, wasn't I the guy going on about McCormick in the discussion thread? Yes, but I was probably still overrating him. I decided I'd rather have the Negro League pitchers.
17. Mickey Welch (13) Still won't put him ahead of McCormick. And I'm not saying anyone has to accept how Davenport deals with 1880s pitchers, but WOW, New WARP hates him! (That really didn't affect my ranking, though.)
18. Dobie Moore (new) I do see him as pretty similar to Jennings, but it's a tight ballot. Might move them closer together in future.
19. Del Pratt. (19) WARP likes him a LOT more than Win Shares does. I don't think it's all National League penalty that has him so far ahead of Doyle.
20. Larry Doyle. (16) Seems to be Hornsby lite (very good hitter, lousy fielder). Even w/out the NL penalty, he seems too flawed to rank much higher.
21. Charley Jones. (18) A heck of a hitter, but you need to make a lot of assumptions to get him up on the ballot.
22. Hugh Duffy. (21) Still a step behind the rest of the glut, there's nothing to make him stand out.
23. Herman Long. (20) Here's where the numbers put him.
24. Vic Willis (35) Major beneficiary of reexamining the pitchers, he could move up further. Had a lot of very good years
25. Jake Beckley. (24) There just is no peak there whatsoever, and even when there weren't HOFers in the league, he wasn't a great deal better than his compatriots.
26. Roger Bresnahan. (28) I'm thinking I should reexamine him, but I doubt it will help. He just wasn't good enough long enough.
27. Rube Waddell (26) I don't see what gets people so excited. Strikeouts are nice to look at, but outs are outs.
28. Eddie Cicotte (22)
29. Wilbur Cooper (new)
30. Pete Browning (23)
   111. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 16, 2004 at 08:09 AM (#800132)
Sorry it's late and I've been MIA, but I moved this week, still getting settled in . . . if there are any pressing issues I need to be aware of, please let me know . . .

1. Luis Santop (n/e) - Likely the best catcher of any color from the first quarter of the century.

2. Clark Griffith (1) - (231-152 Chris J record - CJ from here out). His aWARP3 is best on the ballot aside from McCormick, and his two best years show as more valuable than McGinnity's (though McGinnity had 4 such years total).

3. Jake Beckley (2) - Very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. Good for 22-25 WS a year for about 13-14 years. That has a lot of value in my opinion. I also believe that 1B defense was more important in his time, and that gets him a subjective nudge forward from where modern methods place him. I see him as more Rafael Palmeiro than Harold Baines.

4. Lip Pike (3) - He was a great hitter. 155 OPS+ do not grow on trees . . . major bump, as that aWARP1 number has nothing before age 26.

5. Rube Foster (4) - (241-176 estimated record). Creeping up some more. I can see him as better than Waddell now, though with a similarly short career.

6. Bill Monroe (5) - Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he should be ranked near the Thompson level.

7. Charley Jones (6) - Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow. Was better than I realized.

8. Hughie Jennings (7) - Great peak, but it was just 5 years, there's not a lot on the resume besides that. His career number turned out higher than I expected, and when you throw in the peak, well, here he is.

9. Dobie Moore (n/e) - Best I can come up with right now is to rank him slightly behind Jennings. Will be reviewed further this week.

10. Ed Williamson (8) - I'm really serious about taking a second look at everyone. His career is quite comparable to Jimmy Collins'. Both had a 113 career OPS+, and Williamson's was more OBP driven than Collins'. Both Collins and Williamson were great defensive players, Williamson was actually better, good enough to play about 3 1/2 years as a SS, though he wasn't too good there.

11. Jimmy Ryan (10) - Good, not great defensive CF, which is probably why he was eventually shifted to RF. One heckuva hitter though. This is a tight ballot, he's not all that far behind Sheckard, but here is where he landed.

12. George Van Haltren (11) - Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6. He's behind Ryan because of Ryan's higher peak.

13. Vic Willis (12) - (254-200 CJ) I see very goodness. He's Dennis Martinez compared the guys on the ballot being Dave Stieb, David Cone or Tom Glavine. But the more I look the better he looks, so he's rising this year.

14. Mickey Welch (13) - (302-215 CJ). He comes out basically a little below McGinnity, Willis, et al. Throw in some timeline, and he's below them. But Chris J. has mentioned that he was generally matched up against the other teams's best pitchers, so that gives him some bump. He compares better to the top pitchers (Clarkson 299-207 CJ, Radbourn 292-212 CJ, Galvin 361-313 CJ) of his era than I previously thought.

15. Spotswood Poles (14) - I9s, with some downward adjustment shows him below Ryan and Van Haltren, above where I figure Cravath/Tiernan, so this is a reasonable starting point. I don't think his peak is enough to move him past Ryan and Van Haltren.

Top 10 from 1931 not on my ballot:

Cupid Childs - currently 18th - nice player, but I think 2B wasn't as important defensively in the 19th Century and his career wasn't especially long. His peak wasn't especially high either.

Roger Bresnahan - currently 29th. An incredible hitter for a catcher. Lots of walks, but he just didn't play enough. He's only this high because of a subjective 'catcher bonus'.
   112. Philip Posted: August 16, 2004 at 09:20 AM (#800148)
1932 ballot:

1. Santop (new) – Just edges out Pike after giving some credit for war years.
2. Pike (1-2-1-1-1) – Still needs a few more voters to finally make it! Pike should appeal to both peak and career voters. Especially his peak is one of the highest of this group. And his 13 year career should not be considered short for the early days (longer than Thompson and effectively just as long as Duffy and Stovey). Also, he shouldn’t be considered part of the outfield glut since half his value comes at second base. Pike has been sitting in my HOM since 1908 and is now the only player left who is been on all my ballots since 1898.

3. Griffith (10-7-5-4-3) – Great all-round pitcher without really excelling in either career or peak.
4. Foster (21-10-6-5-4) – After integrating his adjusted Win Share numbers he really looks deserving.
5. Van Haltren (8-11-10-6-5) – Benefits as I lean a little more toward Win Shares rather than WARP. Should eventually make my pHoM.
6. Ryan (9-12-11-8-7) – As always, just behind Van Haltren. A bit higher, but shorter peak. Borderline candidate.
7. Mendez (new) – Great peak puts him this high.
8. Leach (15-14-16-15-9) – Third base duties push him in the top10.
9. Jennings (9-9-7-7-6) – Collected enough career value in his short peak. Borderline candidate.
10. Bresnahan (12-8-6-10-8) – It’s still very difficult to rank catchers. I find the argument that the best hitters were saved from catcher duties to make them more durable very interesting.

11. Poles (9-12-10) – I rate him just a level below Van Haltren and Ryan.
12. Waddell (23-22-21-20-16) – Comparison with Cooper pushes him forward.
13. Long (17-17-13-13-12) – I think he’s underrated, although I no longer think he will make my personal HoM. Both WARP and win shares like him. Maybe his lack of a great peak hurts him but most of his value came from playing defense, which is generally more constant from year to year. I don’t believe it’s wrong to have a high percentage of shortstops in the hall, after all it’s the toughest and most important defensive position to play (just like there are more QB’s, centers and strikers considered the best players in their respective sports).
14. Duffy (19-19-19-18-18) – Finally makes my ballot again after some marginal adjustments. Numbers 10 to 30 are very close.
15. Monroe (11-13-14-14-15) – I rate him just ahead of Childs.

16. Welch (27-21-20-19-20)
17. C Jones (9-7-16-15-16)
18. Childs (18-16-12-11-11)
19. Cooper (new)
20. Beckley
21. F. Jones
22. Hooper
23. Burns
24. Williamson
25. Cross

27. Moore
34. Adams
   113. Ken Fischer Posted: August 16, 2004 at 12:05 PM (#800161)
1932 Ballot

1-Louis Santop
Negro League historian James Riley has Santop on his all-time Negro league all-star team. Santop was on the original list of Negro League HOF candidates and would probably be in by now if the annual picks started in 1995 had continued after 2001. Perhaps the best catcher in all of baseball prior to Gibson.

2-Rube Foster
Rube was a pioneer executive, manager and a great pitcher. Right now he represents the best of the players outlawed from playing in the majors not in the HOM.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Still holds PCL record for most at-bats (941) in a season with Seattle in 1904. A pitcher turned outfielder, Van has always been hurt by having played for the Giants’ in their least heralded era (days of Andrew Freedman)…for missing 3,000 hits. He had plenty of hits left in him. He just got them in the PCL.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

5-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.

6-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

7-Rube Waddell 240 WS
Despite short career Waddell still makes the A’s all-time top 30 list for Win Shares. Mack signed Rube out of the coast league in 1902. The big cities of the east must’ve been quite a site for Rube.

8-Lip Pike
Great numbers even though he was in the twilight of his career during the NA days.

9-Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
I’m starting to agree with the argument that we need more catchers…and perhaps a third baseman on the ballot. Roger is probably the best MLB C available. His numbers don’t match up well with the top catchers outside his era but well within his own time. The Deadball era appears to have been tough on backstops.

10-Pete Browning 225 WS
Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me. He had a lot of merit besides being the original Louisville Slugger and a great story.

11- Lave Cross 278 WS
Cross, Van Haltren and Ryan would’ve been more well known names if they had stuck around for 2 to 4 more years. You would think they could’ve caught on with weak teams. They would have their 3,000 hits. An interesting career…including playing for Philly teams in four different leagues.

12-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
Peak among the best but his career value drops him down on my list. Hughie probably ranks third or fourth on the list of great 1890s shortstops. I expect Hughie to be one of those guys to finally get in by the mid-1940s.

13-Bobby Mathews 158 WS
Overshadowed by Spalding in the NA years, Mathews had outstanding seasons with the A’s during the 80s. He was a pioneer in using the curve and spitball. Greg Maddux just passed him on the all-time wins list. His longevity and the ground he helped break in the NA earn him my vote.

14-Hugh Duffy 295 WS
Comps include Brouthers, Kelley and Thompson. Like Cross, Duffy is a four league guy. He was a solid player for a long time…more than just his 1894 average.

15-Clark Griffith 273 WS
Torn between Griffiths and Mullane but went with Clark this week.

Still no Childs...I believe we need to clear out some of the other remaining candidates from the 80s & 90s before bringing in Childs...but others value him much higher
   114. Ken Fischer Posted: August 16, 2004 at 12:23 PM (#800163)
Comment under Foster is incorrect...Santop is my number one choice...so obviously I believe Santop is the best outlawed from playing in the majors not in the HOM.
   115. Max Parkinson Posted: August 16, 2004 at 01:45 PM (#800192)
With only 5 voters from last year yet to check in (49 ballots in thus far); unless all 5 have a serious change of heart from their last ballot in terms of their preference between our current #2 man and our #3, this one's over...

BTW, I've had so much more fun with these elections since I began tracking them! The movements up and down as the voting goes on is pretty cool.
   116. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 16, 2004 at 01:49 PM (#800196)
With only 5 voters from last year yet to check in (49 ballots in thus far); unless all 5 have a serious change of heart from their last ballot in terms of their preference between our current #2 man and our #3, this one's over...

Agreed.

BTW, I've had so much more fun with these elections since I began tracking them! The movements up and down as the voting goes on is pretty cool.

I'll second that. The guy we think has the second spot this "year" really picked up steam at the end, didn't he?
   117. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 16, 2004 at 01:51 PM (#800198)
BTW Max, who are those voters who haven't participated yet this year? I'll send them a reminder when I find out who they are. Thanks!
   118. Max Parkinson Posted: August 16, 2004 at 01:53 PM (#800201)
And it will only grow with the remaining voters...

(2 of the 5 have submitted Prelims, and their prelims confirm our thoughts)

Let's just say that if we were NBC, we'd have already called 1932.
   119. Max Parkinson Posted: August 16, 2004 at 01:54 PM (#800203)
John,

It's Daryn and Jamey N. (both submitted Prelim Ballots, so if there not accounted for by 8:00, I would suggest using those).

The 3 who have not yet been heard from are ed, yest and Brad Harris.
   120. TomH Posted: August 16, 2004 at 02:03 PM (#800212)
Santop wins Florida!
   121. TomH Posted: August 16, 2004 at 02:11 PM (#800218)
by the way, I'd appreciate any perspective (not readily avialable thru the #s) on Wheat or Groh early this week. I'll be away on business and taking daughter #1 to college the next 12 days, and looking ahead to the 1933 ballot, it's possible one of the new guys could go in an "elect me" spot.
   122. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 16, 2004 at 02:13 PM (#800221)
Thanks, Max!

I sent an e-mail to James and yest; couldn't find the rest's e-mails at our Yahoo site.
   123. Daryn Posted: August 16, 2004 at 02:23 PM (#800232)
1. Andrew Foster – On the Foster thread Chris Cobb has a great detailed analysis of Rube’s career – 241-176 MLE, 300 MLE Win Shares. I'm surprised he isn't sliding in on this weak ballot. Plus, he was a good hitter. Wagner said he might have been the best pitcher of his time. McGraw and Chance said similar things. Career spanned 1897-1912. Undeniably great from 1902 to 1907 – four 50 win seasons, at least. Likely also great but without opportunity to prove it 1899 to 1901 and great but in a self-imposed reduced role from 1908 onwards. I like him a lot better than Mendez.

2. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data is helping Welch – those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe.

3. Santop – I’ll start him low. I’m prepared to be convinced he deserves the Number 1 spot, but it looks like you won't get the chance.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Baseballreality.com has him as the best first baseman in baseball for a long time.

5. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor.

6. Lip Pike – 4 monster seasons, career too short.

7. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). As part of the reeval, I have moved Joss from 23 to 10.

8. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.

9. Bill Munroe – I think he was pretty good. Any blackball player that is even talked about as among the best 70 years later is pretty good. I’ll take McGraw’s word for it.

10. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. I don’t think his career is HOM worthy, but those below are really just ballot filler for me.

11. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected.
12. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems right.

13. Cupid Childs – nice obp.

14. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

15. Spotswood Poles – Van Haltren seems like a good comp. I’ll let him have the ballot spot this week.

The rest

16. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated.

17. Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs.

18. Hugh Duffy – 10 strong seasons, good black ink.

19. Dobie Moore -- a little better than Jennings in my view.

20 and 21. Veach and Hooper – I don’t think they will make my ballot. But if one of them does I may defer to Hooper’s 321 Win Shares and 2500 hits.
   124. Daryn Posted: August 16, 2004 at 02:26 PM (#800235)
I have Jennings in the mid 20s -- his short career, shorter than anyone who has ever made our consensus top 10, hurts him.
   125. DavidFoss Posted: August 16, 2004 at 02:57 PM (#800265)
by the way, I'd appreciate any perspective (not readily avialable thru the #s) on Wheat or Groh early this week. I'll be away on business and taking daughter #1 to college the next 12 days, and looking ahead to the 1933 ballot, it's possible one of the new guys could go in an "elect me" spot.


I think there is some stuff in the 1932 discussion. We've been trying to sneak in early discussion for the non-shoo-in-but-perhaps-first-ballot guys at the end of this candidate gap.
   126. Michael Bass Posted: August 16, 2004 at 03:30 PM (#800296)
Even though voting isn't over till 8 Eastern tonight, can we go ahead and open a 1933 Discussion thread? As I recall, we've had them opened on Mondays in the past, and this would give us an outlet for our energies while awaiting those last few ballots.
   127. Philip Posted: August 16, 2004 at 03:42 PM (#800308)
Has anyone voted for a single candidate for all 35 elections?

I have voted for Pike all 35 elections. He has climbed steadily from number 12 to near the top. 12 of 15 on my 1898 ballot have been elected. York no longer makes my ballot, Jones does sometimes and Pike may make my ballot for another hundred years :-(
   128. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 16, 2004 at 03:49 PM (#800319)
and Pike may make my ballot for another hundred years :-(

Probably the same on my part, too. :-(
   129. TomH Posted: August 16, 2004 at 04:05 PM (#800344)
I had Pike tied for 15th on my first ballot, and he has climbed pretty steadily since then
   130. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: August 16, 2004 at 04:09 PM (#800357)
I just feel like venting a little after last night when I spent a long time mulling over Childs and Ryan. I even looked up every time their name appeared in the NBJHA, where I was amused to realize that Childs ranks at #26 at 2B...and Ryan ranks at #26 in CF. And they were each behind 1 person lower on my ballot (Doyle, Duffy). They each had 1 year where James ranked them as Best Position Player. Ultimately, It was a combination of Childs' status as best 2B of the 1890s and a slight advantage for 1B/OF over MI/C in that era (although that's probably attributable to the lack of C.) I still have 8 hours left, though...
   131. yest Posted: August 16, 2004 at 04:53 PM (#800458)
George J. Burns and Ginger Beaumont make my phom this year
1. Mickey Welch finished in the top 10 in era, strikeouts and wins 9 times (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
2. Jake Beckley in the top 10 in RBIs 10 times (made my personal HoM in 1915)
3. Pete Browning 341 batting avg. (13th total) and a 403 on base percentage (51st overall) (made my personal HoM in 1906)
4. Rube Waddell most strikeouts 6 times and strikeouts per 9 innings 8 times and the 7th lowest era for his career (minimum 2000 innings pitched) (made my personal HoM in 1917)
5. Hugh Duffy only him, Ed Delahanty ,Rogers Hornsby and, Ted Williams ever hit 400/500/600 in 1 season (made my personal HoM in 1908)
6. Addie Joss 1st in hits and walks per 9 innings for his career (made my personal HoM in 1918)
7. Clark Griffith 619 winning percentage with sub 500 teams (made my personal HoM in 1912)
8. George Van Haltren 100 runs 11 times (made my personal HoM in 1925)
9. Jimmy Ryan has the 30th most (1642) runs ever (made my personal HoM in 1926)
10. Lip Pike I think the NA still has a few viable candidates (made my personal HoM in 1910)
11. Rube Foster Pitched from 1902-1926 (pitched semi pro from 1897-1901)reportedly had these records:
1902; 51-3
1903; 59-1 (I also saw 54 wins and 55 wins) rumored to have won 44 in a row
1904; 51-4
1905; 50-4
There’s a legend that in 1902 John McGraw was so impressed with his screw ball that he asked him to teach it to his pitching staff whether it’s true or not the Giants era+ went from 99 in 1902 to 113 in 1903
Honus Wagner said he was "one of the greatest pitchers of all time...smartest pitcher I've ever seen..."According to the stats in the Macmillan encyclopedia Foster hit .345 in 69 at bats(made my personal HoM in 1927)
12. Bobby Veach 3 rbi titles (made my personal HoM in 1931)
13. Jake Daubert 2326 hits (made my personal HoM in 1930)
14. John McGraw 4th in runs per game (made my personal HoM in 1930)
15. Gavy Cravath 6 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1928)
16. George J. Burns most runs 5 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
17. Ginger Beaumont 1 of only 12 players to have the most hits 4 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
18. Stuffy McInnis
19. Patsy Donovan
20.Hughie Jennings
21.Levi Meyerle
22.Bobby Mathews
23.Ed McKean
24.Deacon Phillippe
25.Fred Pfeffer
26.Cupid Childs
Explanations for the missing players in the top 10
Roger Bresnahan I like Johnny Kling better
   132. OCF Posted: August 16, 2004 at 04:58 PM (#800466)
With 51 ballots in (and yes, Santop is doubling the votes of the #2 man), the missing voters from last year are:
Brad Harris
James Newburg
TheGoodSamaritan
Others from within the last 5 years:
Carl Goetz
RMc
Seaver 1969
stephen
   133. OCF Posted: August 16, 2004 at 05:06 PM (#800477)
Maybe I spoke too soon on the doubling thing. yest, what is your take on Santop? I think you owe him an explanation.
   134. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:02 AM (#800951)
A first for the HoM! Can you guess what it is? :-)
   135. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:05 AM (#800957)
Both of the players elected are from the Negro Leagues?
The first time we've elected a battery?
Hmm... did Santop ever catch Foster?
   136. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:11 AM (#800976)
Consensus scores recovered a little: average score +1.3, best possible +17. Having one player to agree on helped.
   137. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:19 AM (#801005)
Both of the players elected are from the Negro Leagues?

You got it!

Hmm... did Santop ever catch Foster?

Possibly in 1915 when they were both on the Chicago American Giants.
   138. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:22 AM (#801014)
John: do these numbers look right to you?
1126, 595, 545, 533, 507, 498, 458, 438, 398, 392, 380, 376, 348, 347, 305.
   139. Michael Bass Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:24 AM (#801021)
My point totals, wrong in several places I'm sure

Santop 1126
Foster 595

VH 533
Griffith 529
Beckley 498
Pike 484
Jennings 458
Waddell 438
Duffy 398
Bresnahan 392
Welch 380
Childs 376

Ryan 371
Browning 347
Leach 305
Mendez 271
Monroe 249
C. Jones 234
Poles 221
Doyle 199
Veach 189
Hooper 183
Chance 137
Burns 133
McGraw 127
Joss 116
Williamson 112
Cravath 109
Cicotte 107
Moore 93
Willis 90
F Jones 85
Cross 46
Bond 45
Griffin 41
Konetchy 36
Cooper 35
McCormick 29
Tiernan 25
Dunlap 22
Pratt 20
Long 17
York 16
King 16
Tinker 16
Younger 16
Petway 15
Mullane 15
Bush 14
Leever 9
Matthews 8
Daubert 8
Seymour 7
Whitney 6
Darrell 6
   140. ronw Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:31 AM (#801045)
Let's see if EricC's cool ballot counter works for this post:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RK   LY  Player             PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 1  n/e  Louis Santop      1126   49  36  7  3  1     2                            
 2    2  Rube Foster        595   40   2  4  5  3  7  2  2  3  2  1  3     1  2  3 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 3    3  George Van Haltren 533   35   2  5  5  1  3  4  2  1  2     5  2  1  2    
 4    4  Clark Griffith     529   41      2  6  3  2  1  1  7  3  4  2  1  3  3  3 
 5    5  Lip Pike           507   32      8  4  3  1  4  3  1  1  1  1  2        3 
 6    6  Jake Beckley       498   32   1  6  5  1  2  3  2  3  3  1  1  1     1  2 
 7    7  Hughie Jennings    458   32   3  1  2  2  2  3  3  6  2  2  2  2        2 
 8   12  Rube Waddell       438   31   1     3  6  2  3  4  1  2  4  2  1  1  1    
 9   11  Hugh Duffy         398   30      3     2  5  1  2  2  5  2  1  2  1  4    
10    9  Roger Bresnahan    392   32   1     1  1  2  3  3  2  4  7  2     2  3  1 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
11   13  Mickey Welch       380   24   4  4     5  1     2        1  1     2  2  2 
12    8  Cupid Childs       376   32      2  1  1  1  3  4  3  3     1     4  7  2 
13   10  Jimmy Ryan         348   23      2  3  3  3  2  3  2  1     3  1          
14   14  Pete Browning      347   24      2  5  3  3           3  4     1  2  1    
15   15  Tommy Leach        305   25      1  1  2  2  2  1  3  1  2  1  2  4  3    
16  n/e  Jose Mendez        271   24            1  1  1  2     8  2  2  3  2  2    
17   16  Bill Monroe        249   23         1     2  2  1     2  1  4  5  2  1  2 
18   20  Charley Jones      234   18      2     2  1  1  2  1  1  1  2  2  1  1  1 
19   17  Spotswood Poles    221   23         1           3  3  1     1  4  1  2  7 
20   18  Larry Doyle        199   16      1  2  1     1     1     2  5  1     2    
21   21  Bobby Veach        189   18               2  2     1  1  3  2  2     1  4 
22   19  Harry Hooper       183   15         1  1  2  2  1  1  1  1        2  2  1 
23   22  Frank Chance       137   13            1     1     3     2     1  2  1  2 
24   24  George J. Burns    133   13            1        1  1  1  1  2  2  2     2 
25   28  John McGraw        127   10   1        2     1  1              1  3  1    
26   27  Addie Joss         116    9            1  1  1  2     1  2              1 
27   26  Ed Williamson      112   10                  1  2  1     1  1  3  1       
28   25  Gavy Cravath       109   10               1  2  1  1           1  1  1  2 
29   23  Ed Cicotte         107    9         1  1  1  1           1  1     1     2 
30  n/e  Dobie Moore         93    9            1              2  1  2  1        2 
31   30  Vic Willis          90    9                  2     1           1  3  2    
32   29  Fielder Jones       85    6      1     1           1     2  1             
33   32  Lave Cross          46    4         1                       2     1       
34   35  Tommy Bond          45    4            1              1        1     1    
35   40  Mike Griffin        41    4               1                 1  1        1 
36   31  Ed Konetchy         36    3                     1  1           1          
37  n/e  Wilbur Cooper       35    4               1                          1  2 
38   33  Jim McCormick       29    3                     1                 1  1    
39   36  Mike Tiernan        25    3                              1        1     1 
40   44  Fred Dunlap         22    2                        1           1          
41   37  Del Pratt           20    2                              1     1          
42   34  Herman Long         17    2                                    1  1       
43T  46  Joe Tinker          16    2                                       2       
43T n/e  Ross Youngs         16    2                                    1     1    
45T  41T Silver King         16    1               1                               
45T  45  Tom York            16    1               1                               
47T  38  Tony Mullane        15    2                                    1        1 
47T  39  Bruce Petway        15    2                                       1  1    
49   41T Donie Bush          14    1                     1                         
50   --  Sam Leever           9    1                                    1          
51T  47T Jake Daubert         8    1                                       1       
51T  47T Bobby Mathews        8    1                                       1       
53   --  Cy Seymour           7    1                                          1    
54T  --  Duke Farrell         6    1                                             1 
54T  52T Jim Whitney          6    1                                             1 
56T  43  John Donaldson       0    0                                               
56T  52T Johnny Evers         0    0                                               
56T  51  Levi Meyerle         0    0                                               
56T  47T Billy Nash           0    0                                               
56T  47T Roy Thomas           0    0                                               
56T  52T Jimmy Williams       0    0                                               
56T  52T Harry Wright         0    0                                               
   141. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:32 AM (#801046)
I have the same as Michael except:

Pike: 507
Beckley: 498
Jimmy Ryan: 348
Harry Hooper: 168
Eddie Cicotte: 122
   142. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:37 AM (#801066)
Michael: I have exactly two differences with that (other than the spellings of Youngs and Farrell): a 2nd place vote that I had for Pike instead of Ryan, and 5th place vote that I had for Griffith instead of Griffin. More likely the mistakes are mine than yours - I'll investigate.
   143. Michael Bass Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:39 AM (#801078)
I have confirmed an error on my part on Pike/Ryan: Pike 507, Ryan 348 is correct. Also I can confirm that I am a horrible typist.
   144. Michael Bass Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:42 AM (#801091)
Pretty sure I'm right on the Hooper and Cicotte totals (2 6th place fots for Hooper, 1 for Cicotte), as well as Griffith/Griffin. I'm especially sure of the latter becayse that 5th place vote makes me Griffin's best friend. :-)
   145. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:49 AM (#801107)
Yep, Michael: the Griffith/Griffin mistake was mine, and it was your ballot. With you fixing Pike/Ryan, we're now in full agreement, and I think that we also agree with Ron. Can you confirm that?
   146. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2004 at 01:21 AM (#801193)
My total for Beckley actually did match Michaeal's, so I probably screwed up only with Hooper and Cicotte.
   147. jimd Posted: August 17, 2004 at 01:34 AM (#801231)
So far, every "heir apparent" has eventually been elected. That is good news for Van Haltren and Griffith.
   148. PhillyBooster Posted: August 17, 2004 at 02:17 AM (#801310)
Both of the players elected are from the Negro Leagues?

You got it!


This elect probably saves me from ever having an only-Negro-Leaguers-or-pitchers-or-both Ballot, but maybe not.

I think it's a good indication that the system is working if at the end of the longest drought of Caucasian talent we will ever see, we didn't elect any.

I wonder if there will be any other Negro-League-only years.

I also wonder what happened last year that nobody like Beckley anymore. I like him as much as ever, and thought he had gathered a nice following.
   149. karlmagnus Posted: August 17, 2004 at 02:19 AM (#801313)
I still like Beckley, and expect to have him #1 on my ballot most years in the 1990s.
   150. PhillyBooster Posted: August 17, 2004 at 02:21 AM (#801315)
Also, as a Childs voter/non-Waddell voter, did I miss some discussion where it was uncovered that the two were switched at birth or wore each other's uniforms?
   151. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2004 at 02:38 AM (#801353)
I still like Beckley, and expect to have him #1 on my ballot most years in the 1990s.

Beckley and Welch will be entering my top ten for the first time this "year," so I know karlmagnus will be happy. :-)

Also, as a Childs voter/non-Waddell voter, did I miss some discussion where it was uncovered that the two were switched at birth or wore each other's uniforms?

I moved Waddell up a little, but Childs held firm on my ballot. I agree it's very weird, Matt,
   152. Chris Cobb Posted: August 17, 2004 at 03:42 AM (#801403)
I still like Beckley, and expect to have him #1 on my ballot most years in the 1990s.

Hyperbole, perhaps?

A quick look at 1990s eligibles, if I'm not tripped up by token appearances:

1990 Joe Morgan, Jim Palmer
1991 Rod Carew, Al Oliver, Rusty Staub
1992 Tom Seaver, Pete Rose, Tony Perez
1993 Reggie Jackson, Phil Niekro
1994 Steve Carlton, Don Sutton, Ted Simmons, Graig Nettles, Ron Guidry
1995 Mike Schmidt, Darrell Evans
1996 Frank White, Jerry Reuss
1997 Dwight Evans, Dave Parker
1998 Gary Carter, Bert Blyleven
1999 George Brett, Robin Yount, Carlton Fisk, Nolan Ryan
   153. karlmagnus Posted: August 17, 2004 at 12:47 PM (#801560)
Thanks, Chris C, I wondered about that statement, and will now refine it. Assuming there are no staggeringly qualified holdovers from the 1980s, Beckley will be in one of the top 3 slots, in an "elect me" position in every year of the 1990s except 1999. He will be #1 in 1991, 1993, 1996, 1997 and 1998, i.e. 5 of the 10. 91 and 93 are close, the others aren't. That's how good Beckley was, calibrated fairly accurately, I think.
   154. Chris Cobb Posted: August 17, 2004 at 01:02 PM (#801569)
Karlmagnus,

I can see 1991, 1996-98. For 1993, I think you're underrating Jackson. In context, he was closer to Connor and Brouthers than to Beckley.
   155. karlmagnus Posted: August 17, 2004 at 01:31 PM (#801589)
You may be right; my biases on Jackson are due to having been a Yankee-hater while living in NY in '79-82. But one must rise above these things :))
   156. Max Parkinson Posted: August 17, 2004 at 01:31 PM (#801591)
Not that it would make a difference in this case, but James Newburg did submit a preliminary ballot - in cases where the actual is not submitted, can we not count the prelim?
   157. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2004 at 02:42 PM (#801670)
in cases where the actual is not submitted, can we not count the prelim?

We need a ruling from Joe about James' case and also for the future.
   158. Evan Posted: August 17, 2004 at 04:35 PM (#801879)
Posted by Ron Wargo on August 16, 2004 at 07:31 PM (#801045)
Let's see if EricC's cool ballot counter works for this post


Actually, if you're talking about the ballot counter posted to the yahoo group, that was me, not EricC... Long time lurker, don't have the patience to submit a ballot, though. Glad to see some people are using it!
   159. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 04:37 PM (#801887)
My opinion would be that we shouldn't count James Newburg in the official total. There's a right place to cast a ballot, and we really shouldn't go looking for them everywhere. Note that voters have successfully requested that preliminary ballots be made final, enlisting the support of someone else to appropriately move it. Look at what happened with Adam Schafer this year for an example.

With that said, I just recalculated with Newburg's ballot anyway, for two purposes. The first is the consensus score calculation, and the second is the tally of still-eligibles, which I like to see for predictive purposes. If you're looking for his post, it's #237 on the 1932 Ballot Discussion thread. The first place where it makes any difference in rank is putting Browning ahead of Ryan into 13th place. He would also have been the only one to vote for Babe Adams.
   160. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 04:51 PM (#801918)
Consensus scores (including James Newburg):
Average: + 1.1
Best possible: +17
Top three: Ken Fischer, favre, and Howie Menckel, all at + 10.
Bottom three: KJOK -12, jimd -10, Dolf Lucky -9.
New guy: Thane of Bagarth 0
My score: 0
   161. Guapo Posted: August 17, 2004 at 04:57 PM (#801933)
My opinion would be that we shouldn't count James Newburg in the official total.

I agree, for the same reasons. If voters are going to lose internet access during the voting week, they should be able to post in the ballot discussion thread and request their ballot be moved, but otherwise I think we should be sticklers.
   162. ronw Posted: August 17, 2004 at 05:03 PM (#801951)
Evan:

Sorry about the confusion as to authorship. Everyone else, Evan wrote an excellent program in Excel to count ballots. It automatically tallies the votes in the readable format above, and eliminates missing names (Although John Murphy could still transpose some names).

I have dropped my tallying lines system in favor of Evan's program.
   163. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2004 at 05:57 PM (#802068)
(Although John Murphy could still transpose some names).

Hey Ron, why are you picking on me today? :-)

BTW, I'll be using that Excel ballot template from now on. I forgot about it last election.

Thanks for taking the time to come up with it, Evan!
   164. jimd Posted: August 17, 2004 at 06:35 PM (#802143)
Bottom three: KJOK -12, jimd -10, Dolf Lucky -9.

Wow. And I had the two electees 2 and 3.
   165. Rick A. Posted: August 17, 2004 at 06:45 PM (#802163)
Evan,

I also used your ballot counter this election, and liked it much more than the simple spreadsheet I was using. Thanks for writing it and sharing it with the group.
   166. thok Posted: August 17, 2004 at 09:06 PM (#802439)
Bottom three: KJOK -12, jimd -10, Dolf Lucky -9.

How did yest avoid being in the bottom 3?
   167. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 09:23 PM (#802475)
How did yest avoid being in the bottom 3?

At -7, he was 6th from the bottom. Although he did have that spectacular difference with Santop, he also had 10 of the top 14 on his ballot somewhere, which is one more than I had.

Wow. And I had the two electees 2 and 3.

But you had only 6 of the top 20 on your ballot. You were the best friend (in some cases, only friend) of Whitney, King, Long, and Dunlap, as well as among the better friends of Bond and Williamson.
   168. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2004 at 09:44 PM (#802506)
OCF:

If you don't mind, where did I show up? I think I'm slowly moving toward the consensus, but I may be wrong. Thanks!
   169. yest Posted: August 17, 2004 at 09:55 PM (#802519)
he also had 10 of the top 14 on his ballot somewhere, which is one more than I had.
does this mean I'm becoming the consensus.
   170. OCF Posted: August 17, 2004 at 10:01 PM (#802525)
John: -4, shared with Michael D. and Max Parkinson. You're still moving in the direction you think you are.
   171. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 18, 2004 at 04:37 AM (#803589)
"Not that it would make a difference in this case, but James Newburg did submit a preliminary ballot - in cases where the actual is not submitted, can we not count the prelim?"

I'm saying no - I'm only skimming, after my move I've been unpacking, etc., so I may have missed something. But it appears James didn't say to count the ballot, someone just went and found it, right? And is using it only because James didn't vote, right? If that's the case no.

If James had said something to the affect of, "I'm going on vacation, please count this," and we missed it, then it should count.
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