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Monday, August 23, 2004

1933 Ballot

Will it be Zack Wheat, Heinie Groh, George Van Haltren, Clark Griffith, Lip Pike or Jake Beckley joining Walter Johnson at the ceremony this year?

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 23, 2004 at 09:38 AM | 176 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. karlmagnus Posted: August 26, 2004 at 07:33 PM (#821257)
Dolf Lucky, this business of Beckley not being very good is nonsense. With an OPS+ of 123 he's right in the Duffy/Ryan/Van H. bracket, but lasted 15-20% longer than any of them. There are plenty of teams who won with a player no better than Beckley -- the 1917 Giants, for example. He was the best 1B in baseball for about 8 years, at a time when 1B was more difficult to play than it later became, and certainly more difficult than LF or RF. By 1890s standards, he had a lot of power, as witnessed by the triples number. He simply didn't have one Duffy 1894 peak season that knocks your socks off, but like Palmeiro was very good for a very long time, and unlike Palmeiro ran up counting stats that were spectacular for the time -- #2 in hits to Anson when he retired, for example. Plus he played mainly in the 1890s, an under-repesented era with high attrition and few ML slots available.
   102. Dolf Lucky Posted: August 26, 2004 at 07:54 PM (#821325)
Re: Beckley...

There are plenty of teams who won with a player no better than Beckley -- the 1917 Giants, for example.

The '17 Giants had the best offense in the league (by far), and the best pitching staff in the league (by far).

The best hitter on those Giants was George Burns, who finished 5th in league OPS. A rank Beckley reached once.

If your point is that a team led by Beckley could win the pennant, provided:
a) it was Beckley's career year,
b) the rest of the offense was loaded, and
c) you had 3 of the top 5 ERA+ pitchers on your staff,

then I guess I concede the point. The flip side, of course, is that we haven't elected any of the 1917 Giants, and we're not likely to in the future.

I still contend that if we had a sandlot draft where all 54 players who received votes last year were on the field, and each player was at his peak, Beckley would be near the end of the line.

Of course, there are others who might say that Donie Bush would be last taken. I'll get to that next...
   103. Al Peterson Posted: August 26, 2004 at 08:21 PM (#821417)
1933 ballot. Just think if Big Train had waited til the 1934 ballot.

1. Walter Johnson (-). In addition to major league exploits spent the winters of 1907-1909 pitching in California. Pitched with the All-Nationals fall of 1909 where they took on the SF and LA PCL teams and the Philadelphia A’s in a series on contests. Walter had a record of 6-2 pitching over 8 games in those contests. Over that winter he threw 150 documented innings then went on the lead the league in IP. Big Train was an appropriate moniker.

2. Zack Wheat (-). People wanting to place him in with the OF glut category might want to reconsider.

3. Rube Waddell (3).
Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. His 1902 season: 12-8 out in LA to start season, brought back to Philly by Connie Mack in June and went 24-7. That's a lot of pitching. Unique in that he controlled the game, via strikeouts, at a time when the ball was always put in play (dead-ball era).

4. Hughie Jennings (6). Peak-riffic. SS with plenty of glove and bat, albeit for a short stretch of time.

5. Pete Browning (5). #18 on the SABR 19th century Top 40 players survey done in the late 1990s. Everyone above him, and 12 below him have been elected. 1884-1893 Leaders OWP 4000+ PA

1 Dan Brouthers .787
2 Roger Connor .748
3 Pete Browning .733
4 King Kelly .699
5 Tip O'Neill .695
6 Cap Anson .691
7 Harry Stovey .685
8 Sam Thompson .676
9 George Gore .660
10 Henry Larkin .657

6. Heinie Groh (-). Kinda a surprise when I analyzed him and got him to slot this highly. Positional leadership over others at 3B in the same era is the key here.

7. Jimmy Ryan (2). Big fall for Jimbo. How he ever got so high on my ballot anyways tells you the depths to which the candidate drought took over.

8. George Van Haltren (4). His time has probably come and gone for getting into the HOM.

9. John McGraw (7). Limited playing time but what he did with it is nonetheless outstanding. Positional bump as well. Cons include just not playing enough but was on base all the time when participating.

10. Cupid Childs (8). He's always bounced between being on the ballot and off. I'm keeping a gap between him and Doyle as I feel he was the better of the two. From that underrepresented period of the 1890s.

11. Jake Beckley (10). Wow, what haven’t we analyzed about him…

12. Hugh Duffy (9). Couple of great spikes to go with other uneven performances. Gets bump based on contemporary opinion as being one heck of a ballplayer. Win Shares love the D.

13. Mike Griffin (11). Consistent hitter, excellent fielder. My numbers say it's his place so I'll believe them for now.

14. Tommy Leach (12). If Tommy Leach is a HOMer than so am I. Kinda like his mid-career switch to the OF.

15. Clark Griffith (13). Moved up since his ranking among pitchers in the 1890s is excellent.

Looking on for a chance to be invited:
16. Larry Doyle (14). Between Childs and Dunlap, am more comfortable giving him a boost over the fielding numbers presented. He might have been a hack in the field but to stay at 2B that many years without somebody saying "Get that stiff outta there" would be tricky to do.

17. Tony Mullane. Another pitcher who was good with the stick. Pitched many innings with good rate stats. He won 284 games playing with some teams that weren't nearly the strength of other hurlers of the era. Remember he's missing a year (1885) when in a contract dispute or his numbers would have been better. Great nicknames as well - Count, Apollo of the Box.

18. Spotswood Poles. His statistical projections and standing in comtemporary rankings lead to a lower start than some recent NL electees.

19. Bobby Veach. Nice little career playing next to the Georgia Peach.

20. Roger Bresnahan (15). Getting positional consideration since catchers just can't play as often. Duke could hit with anybody all the same.

21. Jose Mendez. Good peak argument, decent hitter. Should be close to Rube Foster.

22. Mickey Welch. Just win baby. Pitched a ton of innings - probably deserves more credit than I'm giving.

23. Mike Tiernan. Good...just not good enough. Nothing wrong with that except if you want to get elected.

24. Gavvy Cravath. Get's a lift from noteworthy performance in minors between stints in the majors to go along with peak achievement at the major league level at an advanced age.

25. Vic Willis. I have a feeling he wasn't as good as the win totals show. Just a feeling I guess.

26-30: Youngs, Pike, Moore, Hooper, Dunlap
31-35: C Jones, F Jones, Shocker, Cooper, Monroe
36-40: Petway, Cross, Konetchy, Cicotte, Vaughn

In summary, all of last year's top 10 returning candidates are in my top 30 so they are not too far off. Welch and Bresnahan could reappear, Pike has a tougher road to that point.
   104. Dolf Lucky Posted: August 26, 2004 at 08:37 PM (#821461)
Re: Bush...

1. While most players have defensive "peaks", and a career curve that somewhat mirrors that of the typical offensive curve, Bush's was much more pronounced than usual. He was a very good defensive SS for the 1st half of his career. The fact that this coincides with the strongest portion of his offensive career gives him a pretty solid peak, and makes up for his less than stellar offensive numbers. I would say that Bush was a B+ or A- with the glove for the first 6 or 7 years of his career. And, as alluded to earlier, contrary to King James, the Tigers did turn a relatively high number of double plays with Bush manning SS--again earlier on in his career. Unfortunately, BPro's site is on the fritz right now, so I can't list the WARP numbers, but I seem to remember the defensive stats sharply declining over time. Admittedly, Bush was gawd-awful with the glove in the 2nd half of his career, but 1st half--he was pretty slick.

2. I do place some emphasis on traditional stats, as well as an attempt to look at various niches that a player may excel at, and Bush has been given some boost by me for what appear to be very strong leadoff-type hitter credentials. The CS data of course would be helpful, but not only did Bush's name frequently litter the stolen base and times on base leaderboards, but he was also scoring lots of runs for teams that on average were basically mediocre. That he was doing this as a shortstop enhances the boost.

So, I guess in summary: If you allow Bush's defensive peak to be credited to his offensive peak, he probably ranks higher than Long, but shy of Jennings. Giving him a "leaderboard" boost for his consistency and specific skill set, plus a slight timeline boost nudges him ahead of Jennings.
   105. Michael Bass Posted: August 26, 2004 at 09:02 PM (#821537)
but he was also scoring lots of runs for teams that on average were basically mediocre.

Wasn't he the leadoff hitter on teams that featured Cobb and Crawford, then later Cobb and Veach (and for a couple years, all 3 of them)? I don't think leading the league in scoring when you hit in front of those guys is any great indicator of anything beyond his stats. That the bottom part of the Tiger lineup may have stunk didn't really affect his scoring. That the part right behind him was probably the best in baseball most certainly did.
   106. Dolf Lucky Posted: August 26, 2004 at 09:14 PM (#821577)
That's a good point, Michael. Those Tiger teams were strong offensively, even though they weren't all that great overall. I may downgrade Bush a bit next year, but at the same time, scoring a lot of runs is not all team dependent.
   107. OCF Posted: August 26, 2004 at 09:38 PM (#821658)
As long as Dolf is bringing actual runs scored into it, maybe I'll dust off that old gadget, R*. Definitions of that would be buried in some of my posts on discussion threads between about 1904 and 1910. Sorted from best year to worst:

Donie Bush
133 121 111 102  99  98  93  93  89  87  78  74  68  15  15   5
George Burns
123 122 119 119 109 107  97  97  85  84  81  54  40  10   2
Herman Long
105 105  93  91  85  79  78  74  72  70  69  67  48  43  27   0

OK, Bush did score plenty of runs. So did Burns. Burns's own offensive statistics do more to explain why. It does seem to be an advantage Burns has over Long, but those who support Long don't put his offense at the front of the argument.

I don't draw any conclusions from this. I just thought I'd show the data.
   108. OCF Posted: August 26, 2004 at 09:52 PM (#821687)
Oh, and I regard saying that Donie Bush was very good at scoring runs as being vaguely related to saying that Abner Dalrymple was very good at scoring runs (which he was). It does matter who comes up behind you in the order.
   109. ronw Posted: August 26, 2004 at 11:21 PM (#821806)
Dolf, sorry to pick on you today, but:

1 (-)Walter Johnson--The 2nd player since the beginning of this project to garner a perfect score in my system (Lajoie was the first).

Honus Wagner didn't get a perfect score? Where was he deficient in your system?
   110. Jim Sp Posted: August 26, 2004 at 11:30 PM (#821830)
Fournier off the ballot at #17.

1)Walter Johnson--Either half of his career would put him at #1.
2)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and the competition on the ballot is not strong. C+ defender by Win Shares, terrible by WARP. My rating of Doyle I think is out of sync with the electorate because I don’t discount the NL during this time, I treat 2nd base as a defensive bonus position until 1920, and I use Win Shares defensive ratings not WARP. Compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. Doyle’s 126 OPS+ at 2B is only exceeded by Hornsby, Lajoie, Collins, Morgan, Robinson, Richardson, and Dunlap. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
3)Wheat--Beckley Plus, so I like him.
4)Groh--I guess where you put him depends on how much you like third basemen. Compares pretty well with Collins, only Baker is clearly better among 3B.
5)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production.
6)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, striking out people at rate that is extremely high for the era. Each year allowing at least 20% fewer runs than an average pitcher, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. 134 ERA+ in 3000 IP is worthy, his W/L record isn’t impressive because his run support wasn’t impressive. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
7)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
8)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
9)Bresnahan--Best hitting year was as a CF, not a C, so that hurts him a bit.
10)Griffith—Comp is Marichal, plus he could hit.
11)Joss—Comp is Koufax…a terrible hitter.
12)MendezI rate him right below Joss.
13)Lave Cross—great fielder. Caught some too. Only hit well in weak leagues, but still that’s a lot of career value…2645 career hits with a lot of defensive value. All time leader in Win Shares / 1000 innings at 3B.
14)Del Pratt--Well, if I like Doyle then of course I will like Pratt a little too. Good hitter and good fielder at 2B.
15)Welch— Better than Galvin. His 1885 season (44-11, 1.66 ERA, 492 IP) is a great peak year, he had 3 other great years (1884, 1888, 1889) plus another 6 good seasons. Welch played every year in the toughest league. He could hit a little (68 OPS+). Career 307-210…he deserves some of the credit for that.



Lip Pike-- The quality of competition was not good. I think we’ve taken enough of the 1870’s crowd.
Van HaltrenGood player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Hugh Duffy—Good hitter, great fielder. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan are even in my estimation, but off the ballot.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Childs Steep discount for his domination of the 1890 AA, otherwise he would be higher. Has been on my ballot several times, right now he’s just off the edge.
   111. KJOK Posted: August 27, 2004 at 03:04 AM (#822439)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers.

1. WALTER JOHNSON, P. 643 RSAA! 561 Neutral Fibonacci Wins! 146 ERA+ in 5,9515 Innings!

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low.

3. PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than Van Haltren or Duffy.

4. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively.

5. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane/Dickey, except for maybe Santop.

6. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively.

7. RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings.

8. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

9. HEINIE GROH, 3B. .598 OWP, 216 RCAP, 7,035 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Only Frank Baker was better in 1910’s era.

10. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Hack, Alomar, and Sandberg.

11. DOBIE MOORE, SS. Estimated batting career close to Jennings, but little evidence that he was quite as good as Jennings defensively.

12. LARRY DOYLE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times.

13. LIP PIKE, CF. Perhaps best hitting CF of the 1870’s. Similar to Hack Wilson.

14. ZACK WHEAT, LF. .647 OWP, 300 RCAP, 9,991 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Joe Medwick with a better glove.

15. MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES:

URBAN SHOCKER, P. 239 RSAA, 172 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, and 124 ER+ in 2,681 innings. Just needed a few more innings or a little better pitching to make ballot.

JACK FOURNIER, 1B. .679 OWP, 269 RCAP. 6,033 PA’s. Def: POOR! Don Mattingly without the glove.

RAY SCHALK, C. .426 OWP, 10 RCAP. 6,216 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Del Crandall’s long lost twin.

ROGER PECKINPAUGH, SS. .432 OWP, 80 RCAP. 8,383 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Donie Bush the 2nd.

RETURNEES:

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

JIMMY RYAN, CF/RF. .609 OWP. 205 RCAP. 9,114 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not quite up to top OF hitters, and only average defense won’t move him up.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

SPOTWOOD POLES, CF Estimated 117 OPS+ over 8,331 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Oscar Charleston and Pete Hill the only Negro League contemporary outfielders that were better. Comp somewhere around Cesar Cedeno.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being on ballot.

CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. He’s really not all that far away from McGinnity, but not that far from Silver King either.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

EDDIE CICOTTE, P. 183 RSAA, 209 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 123 ERA+ in 3,223 Innings. Not all that far from McGinnity in value/performance.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. Similar to Smoky Joe Wood. Like Wood, has some really great years early in his career, and like Wood changed positions due to arm problems (age 25 for Wood, 27 for Mendez, OF for Wood, SS for Mendez) and was never really a star player after that. I don’t think his best years were quite as good as Wood’s, and not sure he was really better than teammate Dolph Luque, so he falls short on the ballot.

13. BRUCE PETWAY, C. Estimated 102 OPS+ over 5,739 PA’s. Best Negro Leagues Catcher of the 1910’s. Def: EXCELLENT. An Elston Howard/Sherman Lollar comp.

BOBBY VEACH, LF. .610 OWP. 96 RCAP. 7,560 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Some really good years, but not enough for a LF HOM’er.

HARRY HOOPER, RF. .574 OWP. NEGATIVE 15 RCAP. 10,242 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Nice long career, but not enough offense to match up with other candidates.

GEORGE J. BURNS, LF .579 OWP. 82 RCAP. 8,251 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Another great fielding LF’er with a few good offensive years that just don’t stand out enough for a LF’er.
   112. BryceB (Radiation-Free Tanketra) Posted: August 27, 2004 at 11:41 AM (#822572)
1. Walter Johnson (n/e; PHoM 1933). To be honest, I'd like to leave Johnson off my ballot entirely ... if Ron Wargo can actually transport me back in time because of it. That'd be cool. Something tells me that's unfeasible, so I'll just stick with the only sane solution.
2. Hughie Jennings (6, PHoM 1919). There's enough people handing out gold watches, so I don't feel too bad about leaning towards the candles that burned faster but brighter.
3. Heinie Groh (n/e; PHoM 1933). Takes over the Tommy Leach position of the underrated player at an underrated position who is, paradoxically, probably overrated on my ballot.
4. Clark Griffith (4; PHoM 1931). If he ever gets in, should he have to pay for his own plaque?
5. Zack Wheat (n/e). Halfway to the podium to pick up his PHoM plaque before I actually sat down to crunch numbers. I still think he belongs in the Hall, but he's not the slam-dunk guy I thought he'd be.
6. Tommy Leach (2; PHoM 1930). I like Groh's highs better than Leach's career, but I still like Leach.
8. Addie Joss (7; PHoM 1930). The gut pick. Bill doesn't really agree with me, WARP doesn't really agree with me ... but I keep looking at the ERA+, and then troll around to find the hole that everybody else is finding, and I don't like the looks of the hole. I haven't looked at enough guys to say this with confidence, but it doesn't LOOK like Addie falls short for his era in terms of % of starts completed. He doesn't get an extraordinary bump from his team's D. The Ks aren't there, sure, but neither are the BBs. So either (a) he's not Hall-bound because he didn't pitch enough innings, because his arm got hurt, or (b) he's not Hall-bound because he didn't pitch enough innings, because Nap LaJoie and friends weren't very smart managers, and because he ate the salmon mousse. I'm not sure A's the case yet, and I'm not wired to accept B as an argument. Oh well. Maybe I really need to stop doing the thinking for this stuff at 3 in the morning ...
7. Hugh Duffy (9). The BP numbers are strong enough that I feel more confident moving him up.
9. George van Haltren (5; PHoM 1926).
10. Spotswood Poles (8).
11. Mike Griffin (OB). The W3-only version of this ballot actually puts him #2 behind Johnson. I don't really buy that ... but for now, I will buy that I've been overlooking him.
12. Charley Jones (13).
13. Dobie Moore (11).
14. Urban Shocker (n/e). Holds his own in the W3 version even without the "nudge" I tended to give pitchers. First-ballot inductee into the Hall of Cool Names.
15. Lip Pike (15). Nudged back down a little from reading more of the discussions on him.

Beckley: I spent a lot of time this week looking over Beckley, and honestly expected that when I did, I'd find I was underrating him badly and he should be moved up into the ballot. It didn't happen that way. Yes, he *might* be "right up there" with Ryan, Van Haltren, etc. ... except for the fact that there's no way I'm buying a positional adjustment for first base THAT high enough to match with center field. (And, of course, Ryan's not ON this ballot, and Van Haltren might slip off without a slight bump for pitching). And as far as no years that knock your socks off ... it's Drysdale/Pappas. Years like that *count*. I see a very *unusual* career ... but not really a Hall-worthy one.

Bresnahan: 28th in the home list, but could have ended up as high as 12th and not bothered me. Still trying to get a handle on how big of a positional bias I need to have. (Unavoidable smart-aleck comment: this week I learned 8 is ahead of 6 ...).

Waddell/Welch: clustered in the early 20s on the home-list in a tight knot of a dozen or so guys between Burns and Chance. Kind of a drowning-pair ... it almost seems like one *has* to go up, and the other down, but I can't decide who really has the stronger argument, and as a result they both end up dropping below easier calls.
   113. BryceB (Radiation-Free Tanketra) Posted: August 27, 2004 at 11:55 AM (#822574)
Sigh ... see what happens when you get smart and defy the wrath of the typo gods, and rush in the early morning?

The numbers for Joss and Duffy, not the order, are the intended ballot. (i.e. 6-7-8-9 is Leach, Duffy, Joss, van Haltren).
   114. Dolf Lucky Posted: August 27, 2004 at 01:31 PM (#822601)
Honus Wagner didn't get a perfect score? Where was he deficient in your system?

My system ranks players relative to the other players eligible to be selected. Wagner's peak was just shy of someone else's on the board (Jennings probably), and so Wagner's final score was something like 99.3% of perfect. Not to say he wasn't a better candidate than Lajoie, but just that Lajoie happened to top (barely, IIRC) each and every category that I rank. Wagner didn't. No biggie, just a statistical oddity.
   115. jimd Posted: August 28, 2004 at 02:28 AM (#824563)
Ballot for 1933

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

The greatest players are those who combine a high peak with longevity. However, a player can demonstrate greatness for a shorter period of time and then be unable to follow through with the longevity, which is partly a function of luck (amongst other things such as genetics and discipline). OTOH, a player can demonstrate longevity but not demonstrate "greatness" (no high peak).

Both of these types of players are flawed, but I think both have a place in the HOM, because there are not enough truly great players available to fill the HOM quota. I try to balance the two types, not leaning one way or the other. Although it may seem like my ballot caters to peak players, it only looks that way because the majority of voters here tend to elect most of the good career players (high peak or no) while leaving most of the great-peak/short-career guys behind.

1) W. JOHNSON -- !

2) H. JENNINGS -- Using rolling 5-year peaks for WARP-3, of those eligible, only he can claim to have been the "best player in baseball". All of the others have already been elected or are not yet eligible; elected to my PHOM over a decade ago.

3) J. RYAN -- Here comes the glut. Much better peak than Van Haltren. Best outfielder of the late 1880's; not great after the train wreck.

4) S. KING -- Not likely to go anywhere soon, but this is where he rates. This ballot is very thin.

5) F. JONES -- Reached the top of the OF heap before he walked away. Not enough peak for the peak voters to really get excited about and not enough career for the career voters. Some of each will work on my ballot. The career OF guys took a hit in my system because of the new blood.

6) N. WILLIAMSON -- Need some infielders on this ballot; the best not in either the HOM or PHOM.

7) G. VAN HALTREN -- He and Hooper have the best careers left on the current ballot, now that the really good career players have been inducted. GVH is the Beckley of outfielders, though better, unless Jake deserves more defensive credit than I'm giving (via WARP).

8) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; not great enough long enough.

9) T. BOND -- Will probably drop some after I absorb the new WARP.

10) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Deserves votes, though not inclusion (at least yet).

11) Z. WHEAT -- Still don't see that big of a difference between him and Hooper.

12) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

13) H. HOOPER -- Great defensive player on a great defensive team. If he had any real peak, I'd vote him to elect. 2nd best player on the dominant team of the 1910's.

14) H. LONG -- Great defensive player on a great defensive team.

15) H. GROH -- Bring back the bottle bat.

Just missing the cut are:
16-18) Jim Whitney, Jim McCormick, Jose Mendez,
19-21) Gavy Cravath, Hugh Duffy, Rube Waddell,
22-24) Spotswood Poles, Del Pratt, Lip Pike,
25-27) Lave Cross, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
28-30) Tommy Leach, Roy Thomas, Roger Bresnahan
   116. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: August 29, 2004 at 01:08 AM (#825793)
PHOM inductees this year are Walter Johnson and Zack Wheat.

1933 ballot:

1. Walter Johnson: Gotta say something ... He could hit a bit too. Career OPS .617, AL pitchers 1907-27 .473.

2. Mickey Welch: Kelly in SD (#96) makes a great case for him. The only “smudge” I see on Welch’s record is that pesky ERA+. Everything else I see says HOM. (PHOM 1929)

3. Zack Wheat: Long career, trumps perennials Van Haltren & Ryan on win shares & OPS+. GVH has a better WS rate, but some of that’s 19th century pitching. Wheat makes 4 STATS All-Star teams, I have him as a backup 5 more times. Van Haltren 0 AS, 5 backups, Ryan 2+5.

4. Pete Browning: Monster hitter, even considering AA discount. 8-time STATS all-star including 1 each at 2b & 3b. .745 OWP is 8th all-time (1876-1931). (PHOM 1927)

5. Jake Beckley: At or near the top at his position for about 10 years. Long, steady career, lots of gray ink. 3 STATS AS, 7 backup slots. (PHOM 1926)

6. Roger Bresnahan: Positional boost moves him up, and I think his performance in non-catcher roles shows his quality rather than detracting from it. (PHOM 1932)

7. Hugh Duffy: Solid WS and WS/162, MVP in ’94, excellent defense.

8. Heinie Groh: vs. Leach: Edge to Tommy in career length and Win Shares, but Heinie’s got more career at 3b and a better WS rate. Overall edge to Groh, this year, anyway.

9. Larry Doyle: No questions about his offensive credentials. There are some about his defensive ability, but if he were substandard, wouldn’t McGraw have moved him elsewhere?

10. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career, McGinnity-like stats but spread out over more years. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

11. Rube Waddell: MVP/CYA in 1905, good ERA & ERA+, lots of strikeouts.

12. Jose Mendez: Comparison to Waddell seems apt, so he goes here.

13. Tommy Leach: A+ defender at two right-spectrum positions with solid offensive numbers.

14. Bill Monroe: Made 4 of Holway’s first 6 all-star teams, the last in his next-to-last year at age 37.

15. Cupid Childs: 6-time STATS all-star, good WS rate, good defense, underrepresented position.

Dropout: Spots Poles

In 1932 top 10, off ballot:
Van Haltren: Good career, not a standout player. Also see Wheat comment above.
Jennings: Exceptional peak, but not much else. I like some of both.
Pike: Still squeezed off; has been on my ballot.
   117. TheGoodSamaritan Posted: August 29, 2004 at 03:10 AM (#825924)
Missed last year's vote. Darn, there goes my perfect record... I wonder how many voters here that have voted in every election?

01. Walter Johnson SP - Has a claim to be the greatest pitcher of all time along with Lefty Grove, Roger Clemens, Bob Caruthers and Satchel Paige. (sorry about that... I think karlmagnus took over my body for a second there) :) So, who IS the greatest pitcher of all time? I think all three have valid arguments, and whether we should pick a pitcher who pitched and had most of his big years in the deadball era is more, I feel, a subjective argument than an objective argument, sorta like when somebody is picking the best general in history. A lot of people would pick Alexander the Great, but others who favour modern warfare would pick somebody recent like Patton or von Manstein, and who's to say they are wrong? For better or worse, I think if I had to choose, I would anoint Clemens as the best pitcher in history (and Genghis Khan as the best general ever). Johnson is in the top 5 along with Greg Maddux. Johnson also has a claim of being the nicest person in MLB history (a title which I don't think Clemens will challenge for...).

02. Zack Wheat LF

03. Bill Monroe 2B - I have been thinking about Monroe for some time now. I might be wrong, but if there is only one Negro League second baseman that I could elect into the HoM, it probably would be Monroe. When I think of Bingo DeMoss or Newt Allen, I think of players like Red Schoendienst, Nellie Fox or Frank White. Great career players, very good chance to get into the HoM, but not impact players. When I think of Monroe, I think of a Charlie Gehringer who played in the deadball era, somebody who is a force in his league. He is one of the few 2B of the Negro League that is considered one of the best player of the entire league. Dirk Knemeyer wrote that "Monroe stands with John Henry Lloyd as the finest Negro League players of their generation."

04. Spotswood Poles CF - Over in the discussion page for Poles, there seems (in my view) to be a lot of weight placed on the theoretical numbers that the fine folks at i9s.org had conjured up. I am sure that they came up with the numbers based on sound reasonings, but they are still theoretical numbers; numbers that I can't trust enough to wipe out the all the favorable subjective reviews. 4th greatest Negro League CF? Sounds about right. Probably was the same kind of player as Cool Papa Bell.

05. Jimmy Ryan CF
06. George Van Haltren CF

07. Roger Bresnahan C - I think he is the best catcher of his era. He is the classic Win Shares Love Him, WARP Hate Him player (along with Hugh Duffy and Joe McGinnity). The WARP numbers for him are not that good because they have him to be very much below average fielder at a FRAA of -119. Win Shares has Bresnahan to be a C+ fielder, which I think is about average. The peak WARP numbers for Bresnahan are also very low. OTOH Win Shares loves Bresnahan as seen with his high ranking as the #16 all-time best catcher of all time, one slot above Buck Ewing, and his Win Shares per 648 PA. A person named Cyril Morong did a ranking of all the players with 5000 PA by their Win Shares per 648 PA and Bresnahan is ranked 6th in the catcher's list:
1 Mike Piazza 31.82
2 Yogi Berra 29.06
3 Gabby Hartnett 28.86
4 Bill Dickey 28.82
5 Mickey Cochrane 28.71
6 Roger Bresnahan 27.86
7 Roy Campanella 27.85
8 Gene Tenace 27.09
9 Buck Ewing 27.06
10 Johnny Bench 26.61
Bresnahan is ranked 45th(!) overall in Win Shares per 648 PA over players like Ed Delahanty (27.41), Roger Connor (26.60), Hughie Jennings (24.52) and Charlie Bennett (23.60).

08. Mike Tiernan RF

09. John Donaldson SP - Along with Willie Foster, Donaldson has a claim to be the greatest left-handed pitcher in Negro League history. I have him personally ranked as the 8th greatest Negro League pitcher, above Rube Foster but below contemporaries Smokey Joe Williams and Cannonball Dick Redding. Here is my ranking:
01. Satchel Paige
02. Smokey Joe Williams
03. Bullet Joe Rogan
04. Willie "brother of Rube" Foster
05. Leon Day
06. Cannonball Dick Redding
07. Hilton Smith
-- HoM Mason-Dixon line --
08. John Donaldson
09. Rube Foster
10. Jose Mendez
11. Nip Winters
12. Ray Brown
13. Chet Brewer
14. Martin Dihigo (ranked here as a pitcher only)
15. Andy Cooper
IMHO I think that the top 7 pitchers are sure-fire HoMer, 8 to 11 are boarderline candidates, and 12 to 15 are very good pitchers but are only ballot fillers in my book (except for Dihigo). So it's plain to see that I consider Donaldson to be a very good player, a boarderline great player, but not a sure-fire HoMer when compared with the 7 men above him.

10. Hugh Duffy CF
11. Fielder Jones CF
12. Eddie Cicotte SP
13. Jose Mendez SP

14. Heinie Groh 3B - Hey PhillyBooster, if you think the name 'Walter' is losing popularity, how about 'Heinie' or 'Urban'?

15. Urban Shocker SP
   118. Kelly in SD Posted: August 29, 2004 at 03:30 AM (#825935)
Posted career breakdowns for Urban Shocker and Pud Galvin on pitchers thread.
   119. Brian H Posted: August 29, 2004 at 03:58 AM (#825948)
Brian H.
1933 Ballot

1.Walter Johnson... Probably the greatest Pitcher ever..

2Hugh Jennings – (3 AS + 2 MVP) His peak is among the highest ever at SS. He was not merely the top SS of an era abundant with outstanding shortstops. This was in perhaps the most competitive era we have judged to date (the one-league 1890’s). James (a peak fan) ranks Jennings 18th , just above Dahlen among all SSs... Jennings was an integral part of the “Old Orioles” dynasty of the ‘90s.

3.Zach Wheat – Top notch (all-star level) outfielder for several years. The field is too weak to hold him back much further even given a conservative first ballot.

4. Frank Chance (7 AS, 1 MVP) Chance was the was the premier 1B in baseball for several years (weak years for the position). Conversely, I have Beckley as the top 1B for only a few years. Very valuable on the bases.....Chance could rank higher if: (A) He was accorded credit for managing the Cubs; or (B) He was more durable player and put up career numbers like his longtime nemesis Fred Clarke.

5.Hugh Duffy –(2 AS, 1 MVP) Duffy was integral part of Boston’s “team of the 90’s”. He had an exceptional peak and enough of a career that I can’t call it a fluke. Renowned as a heads-up player and a top-notch fielder.

6.Cupid Childs (5 AS) – I had him above McPhee based on his peak and strength of competition (as does James). I also think he hit a bit better than Bid (although his fielding was clearly inferior).
7.Heinie Groh – Better than I thought he would be.... This is a conservative start for him.

8.Mickey Welch – Well I’ve always had a soft spot for him (see earlier ballots)... His 300+ Wins are legit. I wonder why James leaves him off his top 100 but lists Mullane (whose career numbers need to be depreciated somewhat since he played in the AA) instead.

9.Clark Griffith – Among the top Pitchers for the (in my opinion) underappreciated 1890's.

10.Pete Browning (8 AS !) – A better AA hitter you will not find. Not as good all around as Stovey – a much better career than O’Niell. His early AA years are discounted.

11Rube Waddell – (3 AS, 1 CY + 1 MVP) – one of the greatest strikeout Pitchers of all time. If he had the legendary savvy of Griffith, for example, he probably would have won 300 games and become a first ballot HOMer.

12.Roger Bresnahan (4 AS) – Better than Bennett but not by that much. He was a tremendous all-around talent and played a prominent role in the successes of the Giants of the 1900's. The big question here is how much of a bump he gets as a Catcher.

13.JJ McGraw – In terms of peak performance one of the best 3Bs ever.

14.Bill Monroe - Monroe made several all-star teams and apparently hit for power as well as average... I actually think he may have been better than Johnson.

15.Tony Mullane – Top notch Pitcher in inferior AA.... I was shocked at just how good a hitter he was. A very strong Win Shares candidate. I’m not giving him much for his missing season – full credit could arguably place him above Welch at this point.
Off the list :

Lip Pike – He played a bit later than Pearce but did not excel for as long and was probably never the BEST player. Then again at least we have some stats I can appreciate. I guess the ultimate explanation for why he falls behind guys like Moore, McGraw, Youngs and Ryan is that I hold his era in relatively low esteem.

Van Haltren Strong career but not up to what I look for in a peak for his position.

Jimmy Ryan – I like his peak a bit more than VH’s career but neither makes the list with the 3 new entries. His train accident may be what keeps him out of the HOM.... as I recall he had quite a career going until that time.

Jake Beckley – Same as Van Haltren above only much more so. He places around 20 on my list. His best selling point for me is that he did a lot of his best work in the 1890s – which I believe we are selling short (especially relative to the 1900's and 1880's). As a 1B he rates well-below Chance and just below Ed Konetchy (Sp ?).
   120. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 29, 2004 at 04:04 AM (#825950)
Kelly - your late 90s post regarding Mickey Welch was outstanding. The Politics of Glory was what got me started with this thing in the first place. The idea for an MVP style vote comes from there, as well as some other things. Thanks for bringing that stuff up. A great 'back to the basics' post.

I'm sorry I've been pretty AWOL around here of late (I've been saying that at all of my 'commitments' of late), for those of you that don't know, I moved this summer, purchased my first house. Of course it's an hour from where I used to live, so every time we had to look at houses, we had a 2-hour round trip, etc.. This made most free time null and void.

I'll be back regularly from here out I hope. Thanks to John Murphy for keeping things running smoothly, updating the Plaque Room, and rebuilding many of the 'lost' posts from the archives.

And thanks to all of you for keeping the machine cranking, it's pretty cool that I can basically disappear for a few months, and the wheels just keep cranking. If someone would have told me that two years ago, I would have laughed. We're about 1/3 of the way through this already, and I have to say that I'm ecstatic with how it's gone so far.
   121. Brent Posted: August 29, 2004 at 04:58 AM (#825984)
I base my ratings on the idea that merit means playing at a high enough level that a player could significantly contribute to winning a pennant. I start with WS, then adjust for defense (which I think is undervalued in WS), pitcher and catcher usage, etc. I try to count each season according to how much value it would have to a team in a pennant race. That means I give a lot of weight to high performing seasons with 25 or 30+ adjusted WS, since these are the kind of seasons that matter a lot.

This week I made several refinements to my system, leading to a few changes.

My 1933 ballot:

1. Walter Johnson: All aboard!

Something I didn’t know 2 weeks ago: That WJ was such a good hitter (career OPS+ 76).

Something you may not know: After retiring from baseball he entered politics, serving on the County Commission of Montgomery County, Maryland (link ). (I live in Montgomery Co., which is located just north of Washington, DC.) A local high school is named after him.

2. Hugh Duffy: Why do I have Duffy rated above Wheat? Compare their WS (adjusted to 154-game seasons) for their 8 best seasons:

Duffy – 39, 33, 31, 29, 29, 29, 27, 25
Wheat – 35, 32, 28, 27, 27, 26, 24, 23

Now it’s true that after the top 8 seasons Wheat moves ahead, but those are the type of seasons that typically wouldn’t contribute much to winning a pennant race. (The average WS for a regular position player on a pennant winning team is usually 18 to 20 WS.) Duffy loses a few points because one of his good seasons was with the weak 1891 AA, but this is more than offset by credit I give him for his fielding, rated A+. (Wheat’s is rated B-.) Duffy also gets a little extra for his remarkable postseason record – 23 for 47 (.489) with 16 RBIs in 11 games (1892 and 1897).

3. Tommy Leach: For Leach versus Groh, on the other hand, I go with the player with more good seasons, even though Groh’s peak is higher. Leach has 8 seasons with 23+ adjusted WS, compared to 6 for Groh. Leach was an A+ fielder at both 3B and CF.

4. Hughie Jennings: Highest peak of any player on the ballot other than WJ. One of the greatest defensive SS ever.

5. José Méndez: An awesome pitcher for about 5 years and a contributor for several more.

6. Mickey Welch: Wasn’t on my ballot last year. I was making a pitcher usage adjustment for seasons before 1892, but after taking a closer look at changes in pitcher usage (see my post on the pitchers thread) I learned that there wasn’t a big break in pitcher usage that year. The changes came in two stages – a move from using 2 starters to 3 around 1887, and a change from 3 to 4 around 1898. This meant that I had been undervaluing the last half of Welch’s career – making this correction boosts him from just off my ballot to just below Méndez. Welch had several excellent seasons.

7. Spottswood Poles: The more I look at him the better he looks.

8. Heine Groh: A fine player and a very good defensive 3B.

9. Zack Wheat: The fortunes of Brooklyn seemed to rise and fall with Wheat.

10. Vic Willis: May be the most underappreciated player on the ballot. I started refining my system for ranking pitchers because I assumed there must be a flaw – why did I keep coming up with Willis ahead of Waddell when everyone seems to agree that Waddell was the better pitcher? After making several refinements, though, their relative rankings hadn’t budged. I finally looked at their records side by side. I decided I’d rather take Willis’s best season than Waddell’s best season. I’d rather take Willis’s 4 best seasons than Waddell’s. I’d rather take the rest of Willis’s career than the rest of Waddell’s. And Waddell in his best years was very, very good, but Willis was better.

11. Wilbur Cooper: Another pitcher who worked a lot of innings and put in some very good seasons.

12. Roger Bresnahan: 7 seasons in top 10 in OBP.

13. George J. Burns: Best player on 1917 pennant-winning Giants. 3 seasons with 30+ WS.

14. Charley Jones: Led league in RBI in 1879 and 1883, in top 10 for 6 seasons. Led league in R in 1879, in top 10 for 5 seasons.

15. Joe Tinker: This is probably the last time he will appear on my ballot, so let’s pause to remember a SS who, if we had a Gold Glove HOM, would be in its inner circle. Leaders in fielding WS/1000 innings among HOM eligible SS with 10,000+ innings:

Joe Tinker 7.28
Art Fletcher 7.04
Everett Scott 6.98
Honus Wagner 6.89
Germany Smith 6.86

Not on my ballot:

George Van Haltren: He was on my ballot last year, but after comparing him to other OF I decided he doesn’t offer as much as Duffy, Poles, Wheat, Burns, and Jones. Not much of a peak.

Clark Griffith: The flip side of Mickey Welch – I decided I had been over-rating his early seasons and he dropped just off my ballot. Pitcher work loads changed around 1898, so although it looks like he was pitching a lot of innings, he was among the top 10 in IP only 2 times. IP matter a lot to my pitcher ratings.

Lip Pike: I think that if he had come along 20 years later, his power and speed might have been much more effective than they were in the 1870s, when his offensive impact was greatly diluted by all of the errors.

Jake Beckley: I rank him fourth among 1B, behind Chance, Fournier, and Konetchy. None of the four makes my ballot.

Rube Waddell: See my comments on Willis above.

Cupid Childs: One of a cluster of second basemen, along with Doyle and Evers, ranked between 19 and 25.

Other new players: Several good ones. I have Shocker at 23, Shawkey at 27, and Fournier at 29.
   122. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 30, 2004 at 12:34 AM (#826970)
At this time, I count 42 ballots.

MIA are:

Tom H
Eric C
Michael Bass
Phillip
Esteban Rivera
The Commish
Guapo
Devin McCullen
Ken Fischer
Michael D
Max Parkinson
James Newburg
   123. Esteban Rivera Posted: August 30, 2004 at 12:48 AM (#826974)
Ask and ye shall receive John Murphy. The flood is just moments away from arriving. In the meantime, just ride the Big Train to the election ceremonies this year.

1. Walter Johnson - Choo Choo Coleman had a better railroad nickname.

2. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe. Thanks to Kelly in SD's post which cleared up any leftover doubts I had about pushing Welch this high on my ballot.

3. Zack Wheat - Career man with some spikes. A good solid candidate for the HOM. Makes my PHOM along with some guy named Johnson.

4. Lip Pike - One of the best players in early baseball. The pre-NA numbers confirm what I have believed about his early career.

5. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the player's league.

6. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

7. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

8. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

9. Hughie Jennings - A historical monster for five years.

10. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. However, I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

11. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Charley Jones - Great hitter and one of the top outfielders of his time. Shorter seasons and blacklisting distort the actual statistical accomplishments Jones would have had.

13. Roger Bresnahan - He has his favorable points such as his offense and being versatile. However, playing time and defensive issues make me a bit wary of going higher with him.

14. Tommy Bond - The only other 70's era candidate that I feel is a viable candidate besides the ones already on my ballot. Was an outstanding pitcher for a stretch of five years. Arm gave out but was the best for what I feel is a long enough time for me to give him the last spot on my ballot. Caruthers without the hitting.

15. Heinie Groh - He and Childs appear to be very similar. Gets the edge for playing the more demanding position in comparison of the eras they played in.

Falling off:
Frank Chance

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

George Van Haltren - Consistency but not the best at postion.

Cupid Childs -Next in line after Chance. Not off my radar screen yet.
   124. Ken Fischer Posted: August 30, 2004 at 02:11 AM (#827006)
1933 Ballot


1-Walter Johnson 560 WS
A no-brainer. In the early 1900s he spent some time on ball fields in my home county...Orange County, Calif. He attended Fullerton High School.

2-Zach Wheat 380 WS
Gwynn & Clemente are his comps. Could’ve had 3,000 hits and been a 4 decade if he had hung around a little longer. Zach holds up well against the rest of the outfielders on the ballot.

3-Pete Browning 225 WS
I’m moving Pete up after a lot of re-thinking. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me. His defense takes a lot criticism. But he had a lot of merit besides being the original Louisville Slugger and a great story.

4-Lip Pike
Great numbers even though he was in the twilight of his career during the NA days. I believe Pike will eventually make the HOM. He’ll probably have to wait until the automatics of the mid-30s clear out.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Still holds PCL record for most at-bats (941) in a season with Seattle in 1904. A pitcher turned outfielder, Van has always been hurt by having played for the Giants’ in their least heralded era (days of Andrew Freedman)…and for missing 3,000 hits. He had plenty of hits left in him. He just got them in the PCL. Van played with Ryan briefly in the 1880s and was a teammate of Ed Williamson and Christy Mathewson at different times in his career. The fact he was traded to Pitt for an HOM caliber player (J. Kelley) is one more reason he deserves election.

6-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.

7-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

8-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

9-Jose Mendez
John Holway says some records credit Mendez with a 44-2 record in 1909. He was considered the best black pitcher of his time. Holway also reports Mendez’s velocity was such that he accidentally killed a teammate during batting practice.

10-Rube Waddell 240 WS
Despite short career Waddell still makes the A’s all-time top 30 list for Win Shares. Mack signed Rube out of the coast league in 1902. The big cities of the east must’ve been quite a site for Rube.

11- Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
I agree with the argument that we need a catcher…and perhaps a third baseman on the ballot. Roger is probably the best C available. His numbers don’t match up well with the top catchers outside his era but well within his own time. The Deadball era appears to have been tough on backstops.

12- Lave Cross 278 WS
Cross, Van Haltren and Ryan would’ve been more well known names if they had stuck around for 2 to 4 more years. You would think they could’ve caught on with weak teams. They would have their 3,000 hits. An interesting career…including playing for Philly teams in four different leagues.

13-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
Peak among the best but his career value drops him down on my list. Hughie probably ranks third or fourth on the list of great 1890s shortstops. I expect Hughie to be one of those guys to finally get in by the mid-1940s.

14-Cupid Childs 238 WS
Neck and neck on my ballot with his comp…Hughie Jennings. After more thought…Childs deserves to be on the ballot…perhaps the top second baseman along with McPhee until Collins & Hornsby came along. He played on the good Spiders teams of the 1890s.

15-Bobby Mathews 158 WS
MLB.com includes Mathews’ NA days in his stats. His 297 wins are on their all-time list. Does this mean they actually recognize the NA as a major league? I doubt it. Overshadowed by Spalding in the NA years, Mathews had outstanding seasons with the A’s during the 80s. He was a pioneer in using the curve and spitball. The 1876 NY Mutuals didn’t make their last road trip. There’s Mathews' 3 missing wins…but of course we’ll never know.

I keep waffling on Griffith. He’s in my top 20 as is Groh. More thought on both in 1934.

16-Hugh Duffy 295 WS
17-Clark Griffith 273 WS
18-Heinie Groh 272 WS
19-Tony Mullane 399 WS
20-Sol White
   125. Guapo Posted: August 30, 2004 at 03:58 AM (#827054)
1. Walter Johnson- One of the great things about this project is it gives you a chance to appreciate the true greats by providing you with the perspective to evaluate their accomplishments in context.. If Johnson had retired in 1914, he probably had already earned his spot on the top of my ballot. Probably the 2nd greatest player eligible for election so far, after Wagner.
2. Zach Wheat- I’m paranoid that I’ve been overranking new candidates. Still, Wheat is a HoMer by any standard. Check out those power numbers! Has the mix of peak and career performance that will guarantee him election.
3. Larry Doyle- Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence.
4. Heinie Groh- Another new guy who makes the top of the ballot... I guess I’m not that paranoid. Reminds me a lot of Larry Doyle. Considering the dearth of third base candidates, he looks very strong for eventual election.
5. Wilbur Cooper- He was one of the very best pitchers in his league for 10 years- unless you completely discount the NL from 1914-1924, he meets the standards of the HOM. I’m hoping others are just being cautious regarding him. (I guess maybe I should be cautious too).
6. Clark Griffith- I’m not super comfortable ranking him this high, but everyone on the ballot from here on down has some question marks surrounding them.
7. Jose Mendez- Again, this might be too high. I’m impressed with what I see though.
8. Gavvy Cravath- Had a great 5 year run at the top of the league.
9. Ed Konetchy - The best first baseman of his time, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played.
10. Ross Youngs- Guess I’m a Giants fan and a peak voter... this is without any additional credit for his untimely death. Youngs was a terrific player- just didn’t live long enough to accrue career “points.”
11. Frank Chance- Keith Hernandez comp? An OBP stud who was an offensive star, albeit for a short time. Konetchy’s got a better case though.
12. Lip Pike- Others have made the arguments, and they’re convincing. The premier outfielder of his time.
13. Roger Bresnahan- I'm souring on him a bit. Still, with the catcher bonus here he is.
14. Tommy Leach- Jumps back on the ballot after missing a couple of years. It’s a mystery to me why he hasn’t done better- I’d think the career voters would be all over this guy. But he’s slipped through the cracks...
15. Hugh Duffy- Another guy who jumps back on the ballot. If I have to take one of the 1890's outfielders, I’ll take this guy and bash you into submission.
   126. Guapo Posted: August 30, 2004 at 03:59 AM (#827055)
Don’t Believe the Hype:

George Van Haltren: The lowest ranked member of the outfield glut for me, he surged ahead of the other contenders for reasons I don’t understand.
Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career. Konetchy and Chance were the best of their eras.

Hughie Jennings- My # 17. His career was a little too short to establish himself as a solid candidate.

Rube Waddell- We’ve elected a bunch of his mound peers. His career does not stand out compared to those elected.

Mickey Welch- Similarly, I’m taking a break from voting for 1880's pitchers. I’m keeping him on the radar and maybe he’ll get a vote in the future, but I think that era’s quite well represented at this point.

Cupid Childs- My #18. I really wish I could figure out a way to get him into the top 15. His run of excellence at 2B is ballot-worthy, and I’d take him over Bid McPhee any day of the week. He just gets squeezed out by peers who I think were a little better.

Jimmy Ryan: I’d take Jimmy over GVH based on peak. Ryan’s not a bad candidate, but it’s becoming increasingly clear to me that I’m never going to vote for him.

Pete Browning- I have him ahead of Ryan. Took another look at him and reminded myself how good he is- he’s probably in my top 25. Not sure that will mean much in a few “years,” though....
   127. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: August 30, 2004 at 04:53 AM (#827068)
Not that I'm lazy or anything, but truly obvious candidates are so much easier to deal with. Two weeks ago I was up until 1:45 AM trying to figure out which 1890s candidate was squeezing in to my PHoM. This year's a little more obvious.

I understand all the folks who say we need more pitchers inducted. I'd tend to agree, but when I actually look at the pitchers, none of them appeal to me. Sorry.

1. Walter Johnson (new) Saw Collateral this afternoon; pretty good movie. Plot's a bit predictable, but the performances are good and it's always nice to look at. Figured that was more informative than anything I could come up with about the Big Train.

2. Zack Wheat (new) The ballot's still tight; I thought the Hooper comparisons make some sense but Harry's at #14. Has tons of career value, some peak value, fielded reasonably well. Not a no-brainer by any means, but definitely worthy of induction.

3. Lip Pike (2) Seems to be among the best 5 or 6 players in baseball for almost a decade, which no one below him on the ballot can say. Wheat's ahead of him because he wasn't that far off the standard for the early 20s and has a lot of career value as well. And I think I'm voting for Dick Allen as well. Made my PHoM in 1919.

4. Heinie Groh (new) I only see Leach as even close to him among 3Bmen. McGraw doesn't have enough career length, Williamson just isn't that great, Cross just played forever at an OK level. Further ahead of Leach on peak than behind him on career; similarly, his offensive advantage is bigger than Leach's defensive. Similar to Childs in a lot of ways, but slightly better.

5. Cupid Childs (3) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is short, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s. Made my HoM in 1932.

6. Jimmy Ryan (4) The new WARP pushes Van Ryan back closer to Griffin and Duffy, but I still think they're a little bit better. Very good players for a reasonably long time, but don't think they were ever great.

7. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Have him close to Childs, but I'm just less certain he was really good enough to make the HoM.

8. George Van Haltren (6) Behind Ryan, because Ryan's peak is just a little better and I don't think the pitching helps him that much. I admit I don't see what some people like so much.

9. Jose Mendez (9) I do think he was better than Foster, because I have more trust in how much he was playing outside his peak. I'm not really certain about putting him this high, but I am sure I'm not holding anyone worthy back.

10. Tommy Leach (11) Comparison to Groh shows I've been underrating him some. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. May move up more.

(10A Sam Thompson)

11. Spotswood Poles (7) His numbers (as we have them) do seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation seems good. Outside of the NHBA, there isn't much demanding his induction, though.

12. Hughie Jennings (8) Sliding down the ballot, but he's done that before. The peak isn't quite so amazing with the new WARP.

(12A Rube Foster)

13. Clark Griffith (10) He's not really that much better than Breitenstein or Hawley for the 90s, but he did stay around a lot longer. That's not enough to get him any higher than this.

14. Harry Hooper (14) Similar to Wheat in some ways, but not as good. Pretty low OPS+ for a corner OF candidate.

15. Bobby Veach (12) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.

Off Ballot

16. Mike Griffin (15) Dammit. I love the guy and so does WARP, but doesn't quite match up to the other OFs.
17. Jake Beckley. (25) Took another look, and there is a TON of career value. But when your best 5 years by WARP3 are below Lip Pike, that's a lack of peak.
18. Del Pratt. (19) WARP likes him a LOT more than Win Shares does. More well-rounded than Doyle.
19. Jim McCormick (16) Not that far behind the other 1880s pitchers.
20. Larry Doyle. (20) Seems to be Hornsby lite (very good hitter, lousy fielder).
21. Mickey Welch (17) Still won't put him ahead of McCormick. New WARP hates him!
22. Dobie Moore (18) I do see him as pretty similar to Jennings, but it's a tight ballot, and Hughie had a bad week too.
23. Vic Willis (24) He had a lot of very good years, and might still move up.
24. Pete Browning (30) Hit the tar out of the ball, played defense like he was stuck in a tar pit. (rimshot)
25. Hugh Duffy. (22) Still a step behind the rest of the glut, there's nothing to make him stand out.
26. Charley Jones. (21) A heck of a hitter, but you need to make a lot of assumptions to get him up on the ballot.
27. Rube Waddell (27) I don't see what gets people so excited. Strikeouts are nice to look at, but outs are outs
28. George Burns (31) Might be low, but he's definitely behind Hooper and Veach.
29. Roger Bresnahan. (26) I'm thinking I should reexamine him, but I doubt it will help. He just wasn't good enough long enough.
30. Urban Shocker (new) FWIW, WARP likes him, and he does well against his contemporaries on the ballot.
   128. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 30, 2004 at 06:06 AM (#827087)
I hear you Devin.

My ballot is just strange. I don't feel really confident about anyone below #2. It's just a lot of guessing at this point, as my #15 could easily be #3 if an interpretation here or there is changed. That tells me that we are near the bottom of where we want be in terms of electing guys at this point, and new blood on the ballot next year will be welcome.

Don't get me wrong, there are a couple of players here that I'd like to see inducted, but all are borderline guys after Wheat.

1. Walter Johnson (n/e) - (436-260 Chris J record) duh. He's Clark Griffith and Urban Shocker.

2. Zack Wheat (n/e) - Glut is over. 380 WS, 95 WARP3. 18 years of being +30 OBP, +75 SLG, 5 years over 140 OPS+. Very nice package. Interesting that his most similar player is Tony Gwynn. Different eras, Wheat had more power, Gwynn was on base more, but similar production (Gwynn 132 OPS+, Wheat 129). Gwynn would rate higher, but you can be a little below Tony and still be an easy HoMer.

3. Clark Griffith (2) - (231-152 CJ). His aWARP3 is best on the ballot aside from McCormick, and his two best years show as more valuable than McGinnity's (though McGinnity had 4 such years total).

4. Jake Beckley (3) - Very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. Good for 22-25 WS a year for about 13-14 years. That has a lot of value in my opinion. I also believe that 1B defense was more important in his time, and that gets him a subjective nudge forward from where modern methods place him. I see him as more Rafael Palmeiro than Harold Baines.

5. Lip Pike (4) - He was a great hitter. 155 OPS+ do not grow on trees . . . major bump, as his mainstream statistically documented career doesn't include his accomplishments before age 26.

6. Bill Monroe (6) - Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he should be ranked near Pike and Jones.

7. Charley Jones (7) - Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow. Was better than I realized.

8. Mickey Welch (14) - (302-215 CJ). He comes out basically a little below McGinnity, Willis, et al. Throw in some timeline, and he's below them. But Chris J. has mentioned that he was generally matched up against the other teams's best pitchers, so that gives him some bump. He compares better to the top pitchers (Clarkson 299-207 CJ, Radbourn 292-212 CJ, Galvin 361-313 CJ) of his era than I previously thought. I've been convinced that it doesn't make sense to rank them highly and not Welch - and I ranked them highly.

9. Hughie Jennings (8) - Great peak, but it was just 5 years, there's not a lot on the resume besides that. His career number turned out higher than I expected (on the strength of those 5 great seasons), and when you throw in the peak, well, here he is.

10. Heine Groh (n/e) - Another great peak, but it wasn't as great as Jennings'. Groh has more meat on the bones of his resume, but it was still a short career, and I'm conservatively ranking Jennings higher right now. I don't see how Groh can't rank ahead of Williamson.

11. George Van Haltren (12) - Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6. He's behind Ryan because of Ryan's higher peak.

12. Dobie Moore (9) - Best I can come up with right now is to rank him slightly behind Jennings. Don't understand his lack of love in 1932 - especially from the peak guys.

13. Jimmy Ryan (11) - Good, not great defensive CF, which is probably why he was eventually shifted to RF. One heckuva hitter though. This is a tight ballot.

14. Ed Williamson (10) - I'm really serious about taking a second look at everyone. His career is quite comparable to Jimmy Collins'. Both had a 113 career OPS+, and Williamson's was more OBP driven than Collins'. Both Collins and Williamson were great defensive players, Williamson was actually better, good enough to play about 3 1/2 years as a SS, though he wasn't too good there. Short career makes him tough to rank.

15. Vic Willis (13) - (254-200 CJ) I see very goodness. He's Dennis Martinez compared the guys ahead of him on the ballot being Steve Carlton, Dave Stieb and Tommy John. But the more I look the better he looks.
   129. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 30, 2004 at 06:06 AM (#827088)
Honorable Mention

16. Urban Shocker (n/e) - (188-116 CJ) Shocker was just 36 when he died, his last season was at 34 in 1927. If he would have been able to hang around for 3 or 4 more years, he probably would have been an easy choice. His worst season was probably 1925, when his support neutral record was 12-12 and he posted a 117 ERA+. A consistently very good to great pitcher from 1919-27. I see him as pretty similar to Mike Mussina actually, maybe a notch below.

17. Spotswood Poles (15) - I9s, with some downward adjustment shows him below Ryan and Van Haltren, above where I figure Cravath/Tiernan, so this is a reasonable starting point. I don't think his peak is enough to move him past Ryan and Van Haltren.

18. Rube Waddell (16) - (193-138 CJ). Not quite as good as Joss at his best, but he pitched about 2 more seasons, enough to edge him forward.

19. Ed Konetchy (17) - 72.8 aWARP1. WARP loves his defense. Very good player - kind of Hernandezish - more power, less OBP, and overall not as good, but a similar package.

20. Harry Hooper (18) - I can't see any way to put him ahead of Van Haltren or Ryan.

21. Cupid Childs (19) - Now I can see how you could compare him to Doyle and have him ahead - consider me converted . . .

Regarding Hugh Duffy and Roger Bresnahan, I think they are easily the two most overrated candidates by our electorate.

Duffy, on the rate stats alone barely compares with Ryan and Van Haltren. When you throw in the fact that, 1) his career was several years shorter, and; 2) his second best season was in an awful league (the 1891 AA), and; 3) his best year was in a monster hitter's park in a monster hitter's season (Boston, 1894) - I just don't see how he compares.

Mike Tiernan posted a 138 OPS+ (Duffy 122) in a career that was only a year and a half shorter. In basically the same era too.

Mike Griffin posted a 123 OPS+ (more OBP driven than Duffy as well), playing incredible defensive CF in a career two years shorter. He never had years as big as Duffy did in 1891 or 1894, but he never had years as bad as Duffy did in 1896 or 1899 either.

Those are the type of players Duffy is truly comparable to.

Bresnahan was an incredible player when playing. He just didn't play enough.
   130. Kelly in SD Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:53 AM (#827106)
Posted a Career Breakdown for Stan Coveleski on the Pitchers Thread. Will repost when 1934 Ballot Discussion Thread opens.
   131. EricC Posted: August 30, 2004 at 11:15 AM (#827115)
1933 ballot.

1. WALTER JOHNSON (N)

I rate his career as the greatest at any position through 1927.

2. Zack Wheat (N) By the de facto standards that have applied so far, Wheat is a HoMer. Other position players may be more exciting, but, IMO, Wheat is the most meritorious. With his balance of peak and career, Wheat could end up as the "most typical" HoMer.

3. Roger Bresnahan (1 last year)) Dominant catcher of the 1900s, rated within a system that uses win share rates and prorates positional playing time and career length to era-dependent norms.

4. Jake Beckley (2) At the time of his retirement,
was the active career leader in nearly every offensive category. Solid 1B for a long, long time, when 1B was more of a defensive position.

5. George "Rube" Waddell (3) A legitimately great, though hard-luck pitcher, who should not be forgotten in the years to come. Many ERA+ and strikeout titles.

6. Harry Hooper (6) Before participating in this project, I never would have had much appreciation for a career like Hooper's. But there is value in preventing GM headaches by filling a roster spot with average to above-average play for an exceptionally long time.

7. Eddie Cicotte (5) To paraphrase what somebody else said, just because you don't like him doesn't mean that he wasn't a great pitcher. One of the best pitchers of the 1910s.

8. Heinie Groh (N) Old Bottle Bat has the honor of being the highest HoF eligible/not in HoF player on my ballot, which is saying something given my tendancies not to rock the boat when it comes to voting for non-HoFers. Best ML 3B 4 times, but the rest of his career was not exceptionally long nor strong, and any league-normalized stats should be downgraded due to NL weakness.

9. George Van Haltren (7) Van Haltren beats Ryan because of more pitching value and because he played a greater percentage of his career in CF

10. Jimmy Ryan (8)

11. Jose Mendez (9) Add Holway's W/L data from 1910 to 1913 and Mendez was 59-19, and he was still capable of dominating a decade later.

12. Ray Schalk (N) I hope that I don't end up having ballots in later years that are half-filled with unelectable catchers, but this is where my system has him ranked. Similar argument to Hooper: defense, exceptionally long career, and league.

13. Urban Shocker (N) One reason that he makes my ballot is that he never had a bad year. (Well, I suppose that 1928 was a bad year, what with the death and all.) In my ratings, I always rate players over a solid block of years, under the philosophy that you don't get to pick and choose which years count and which don't.

14. Frank Chance (10) I like Frank. IMO, the top 1B of the deadball era. Lack of playing time hides his greatness.

15. Lip Pike (12) By the standards the electorate has applied to 1870s players, he's clearly the next in line, but doesn't have enough to get in without credit for pre-1871 play. Good evidence for being a star 1866-1870. All in all, still leaves an annoying amount of uncertainty.

Squeezed off by newcomers:

16. Hughie Jennings
17. Cupid Childs
18. Hugh Duffy
19. Clark Griffith

Never on:

Mickey Welch. It all boils down to how to treat 1880s pitchers. I don't think that there were that many great pitchers active in the 1880s, nor that 300 wins has to be a standard for electing pitchers.
   132. TomH Posted: August 30, 2004 at 11:46 AM (#827116)
1933 Ballot
review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 13 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and maybe speed. I don’t believe in much extra value for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

1-Walter Johnson (new)
One of the ten greatest ballplayers ever
1 Ruth …...6 Williams
2 Bonds ….7 Aaron
3 Wagner .8 Musial
4 Mays …...9 Cobb
5 Johnson 10 Mantle
Yeah, it’s POSSIBLE that one of the early black stars belongs, but top 10 is an awfully high standard. Looking forward to upcoming discussions of Josh Gibson and Oscar Charleston.

2-Clark Griffith (2)
Like my wonderful wife: the more I look, the more pure gold I find underneath : )
3-Zack Wheat (new)
Transitioned well from dead to live ball, where he became even more valuable. I’ve heard precious few good reasons not to elect Zachary, whether it be this election or a few down the road.

Other very fine ballplayers:

4-George Van Haltren (5)
Hit. Ran. Played defense. Pitched. Long career. Played in one-league 1890s. Solidly on my ballot.
5-John McGraw (6)
I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP ain’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us. KJOK will keep me from being the best FOJMcG.
6-Lip Pike (3)
AdjEqA of .302. Fine WS and OPS+. Played infield too. Concerns about his ethics’ affect on team performance made me drop him a bit.
7-Rube Waddell (4)
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit.
8-Heinie Groh (new)
Plenty of time to discuss him more over the next 2 months :)
9-Roger Bresnahan (8)
A nod to position scarcity. A great player when he was on the field.
10-Addie Joss (10)
Bonus points for his great pennant exploits.
11-Hughie Jennings (11)
As great as he was in 5 years, that’s all he has.
12-Jake Beckley (12)
Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM tho.
13-Frank Chance (13)
He lacks the big seasons if you use WARP or WS, since those measure rely on playing time to accumulate much value. But by RCAP in a run-starved environment, and taking into account his team’s performance, his peak, prime and career are all durn fine. Small bonus because I assess that he would have played a few more games if he wasn’t managing
14-Cupid Childs (14)
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay as well. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.
15-Larry Doyle (off)
I was being WARPed into believing his defense hurt his teams too much. Jumps ahead of a few guys this ballot.

Urban Shocker would have made my ballot if he were eligible last time. Decent hitter and bunter, made very few errors on the mound. Pitched poorly in his only W.S. Might move up. Looking forward to comparing him to Coveleski.

Bumped off this ‘year’ are
Ed Williamson
Re-thinking Ed – yes, he had great accolades from those who saw him play. But even if he was Brooks Robinson with the glove (and bat), he’s missing one-third of Brooks’ career. I couldn’t put him even with the new 3B entry, Mr. Bottle Bat.
Mickey Welch
I’m only partially convinced that his W-L record is more relevant than his comparatively poor ERA.

Also near the ballot edge: H Hooper, T Leach, B Monroe, H Duffy, C Jones, J Ryan
   133. Max Parkinson Posted: August 30, 2004 at 02:28 PM (#827240)
MP HoM inductees for 1933 are Johnson (I know, you're all very suprised) and Shocker.

1. Walter Johnson (MP HoM 1933)

2. Hughie Jennings (MP HoM 1908)

I've said my piece.

3. Harry Hooper (MP HoM 1931)

A pretty similar player to Willie Keeler. Not quite as good with the stick, but a lot better with the glove. Check out any pictures of Fenway that you can find from the 1910s. You think right field is tough there now? Think about him as a CF and a good one, consider the long career (and along with that, acknowledge the lack of a great peak), the 4 WS titles with the Sox, and he belongs on a ballot. Where on that ballot will depend on your predilection for a peak.

4. Lip Pike (MP HoM 1926)

I’ll vote for the NA star above the deadball good player, even though I’ll concede that the latter had more actual talent…. Lip was definitely the best OF in the NA, and is the best NA player left. I really hope that he makes it before the superstars hit the ballot.

5. Bobby Veach (MP HoM 1932)

One of the best LF in baseball year in and year out. The fact that he made any Sporting News all-star teams in the AL during the 1910s is impressive enough. That he did it multiple times should wow you. Remember, two positions are locks (Cobb and Speaker), and you also have Jackson in his prime, Hooper in his, and then Ruth. With those guys as competition, I don’t hold the fact that he was never the best OF in his league against him. None of GVH, Ryan, Duffy, or possibly Pike would have been either…

6. Eddie Cicotte (MP HoM 1927)

I’ve got more pitchers on my ballot than most everyone else, simply because I would have already elected them. My HoM is about 30% pitchers, and I’m pretty comfortable with that. One of the top pitchers in the better league for damn near a decade.

7. Jim McCormick (MP HoM 1905)

The best pitcher in the game for a couple of years. The fact that he had a short career doesn’t throw me; name me a single pitcher from the late ‘70s-early ‘80s who had a long one. They threw tons of innings, racked up a lot of value, and then burned out. That’s the way that it worked. But Bond and then McCormick were the cream of the crop for their time.

8. Clark Griffith (MP HoM 1912)

Some of you are coming around… The 4th best pitcher of the strongest decade of baseball yet. The 3 in front of him are inner-circle types, so there’s no shame in not medalling here.

9. Urban Shocker (MP HoM 1933)

A fairly long career, and a pretty good peak in his own right.

10. Fielder Jones

He keeps popping up this high on my ballot. If he was as good as both James and Davenport think in centre, he deserves it. My system has him as one of the best handful of OFers in the aughts, thanks to his glove…

11. George Van Haltren

The steady, long career. Good Player. Blah.

12. Jose Mendez

Again, just making my best guess with the information that is available. (BTW, thanks to all who have done this work on the Negro and Cuban leagues…)

13. Tommy Bond

See McCormick’s comment. Maybe ‘70s pitching didn’t mean a whole lot, but nobody did it better than him for a good 3-4 year stretch. Then went the arm.

14. Heinie Groh

He caught me off guard - one of the pleasant surprises of this little project is discovering that players you've heard of were a lot better than you had figured them for...

15. Ned Williamson

He’s not going to get in anytime soon, but let’s not forget how good he was – once Pike is elected (fingers begin crossing), he’ll be the best position player left from the ‘70s.

The rest:

16-20. Beckley, Nash, Petway, Ryan, Cross
21-25. Monroe, Whitney, Poles, Buffinton, McGraw
26-30. Konetchy, King, Moore, Waddell, Dauss
31-35. Force, Long, Seymour, J. Williams, Childs
36-40. Wheat, Cravath, Duffy, Tenney, Griffin

Notables -

Bresnahan wasn't a good catcher.
Welch wasn't dominant enough relative to his contemporaries.
   134. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 30, 2004 at 02:45 PM (#827268)
36-40. Wheat, Cravath, Duffy, Tenney, Griffin


Wow.
   135. Max Parkinson Posted: August 30, 2004 at 02:55 PM (#827280)
John,

I was suprised that he was that low as well. On the other hand, there are plenty of voters who have my #2 man well below 36 on their ballots, so I didn't figure that it was a massive problem...
   136. OCF Posted: August 30, 2004 at 02:59 PM (#827287)
Well, that breaks the string. Wheat has (so far) appeared on 49 out of 50 ballots. Johnson, of course, is unanimous (quite frankly, we'd question the motives of anyone who didn't have him #1). I'm not letting any big secrets out of the bag if I say that Wheat will be elected by a very large margin. As someone noted, he will be elected without ever receiving a single #1 vote.

Voters not yet heard from:
James Newburg
Michael Bass
Michael D
Philip
Eric Enders (he did imply he'd start voting now)
   137. DavidFoss Posted: August 30, 2004 at 03:05 PM (#827296)
I'm not letting any big secrets out of the bag if I say that Wheat will be elected by a very large margin. As someone noted, he will be elected without ever receiving a single #1 vote.


Fred Clarke did this too.
   138. Philip Posted: August 30, 2004 at 03:54 PM (#827361)
1932 ballot:

1. Johnson (new) – I hear a Big Train comin’!
2. Pike (2-1-1-1-2) –Pike should appeal to both peak and career voters. Especially his peak is one of the highest of this group. And his 13 year career should not be considered short for the early days (longer than Thompson and effectively just as long as Duffy and Stovey). Also, he shouldn’t be considered part of the outfield glut since half his value comes at second base. Pike has been sitting in my HOM since 1908 and is now the only player left who is been on all my ballots since 1898.

3. Wheat (new) – Just ahead of Van Haltren in each category.
4. Griffith (7-5-4-3-3)
– Great all-round pitcher without really excelling in either career or peak.

5. Van Haltren (11-10-6-5-5) – Benefits as I lean a little more toward Win Shares rather than WARP. Should eventually make my pHoM.
6. Ryan (12-11-8-7-6) – As always, just behind Van Haltren. A bit higher, but shorter peak. Borderline candidate.
7. Mendez (7) – Great peak puts him this high.
8. Shocker (new) – Great for a decade, I see him as very close to Mendez.
9. Groh (new) – Career is a little short, though not too much for a thirdbaseman.
10. Leach (14-16-15-9-8) – Third base duties push him in the top10.
11. Jennings (9-7-7-6-9) – Collected enough career value in his short peak. Borderline candidate.
12. Bresnahan (8-6-10-8-10) – It’s still very difficult to rank catchers. I find the argument that the best hitters were saved from catcher duties to make them more durable very interesting.

13. Poles (9-12-10-11) – I rate him just a level below Van Haltren and Ryan.
14. Waddell (22-21-20-16-12) – Comparison with Cooper pushes him forward.
15. Long (17-13-13-12-13) – I think he’s underrated, although I no longer think he will make my personal HoM. Both WARP and win shares like him. Maybe his lack of a great peak hurts him but most of his value came from playing defense, which is generally more constant from year to year. I don’t believe it’s wrong to have a high percentage of shortstops in the hall, after all it’s the toughest and most important defensive position to play (just like there are more QB’s, centers and strikers considered the best players in their respective sports).

16. Duffy
17. Welch
18. Monroe
19. C Jones
20. Childs
21. Cooper
22. Beckley
23. F. Jones
24. Hooper
25. Burns
26. Williamson
   139. MichaelD Posted: August 30, 2004 at 04:18 PM (#827403)
1. Walter Johnson - This is pretty easy.

2. Zach Wheat - Given how weak the ballot is, Wheat seems like a pretty obvious choice for number 2. He is a level above all the other outfielders on the ballot with his win shares in the high 300s.

3. Jimmy Ryan - I'm not sure what else to say. I still think we haven't adequately accounted for the hitting position players of the 1890s.

4. George Van Haltren - Before I was discounting his Win Shares too much for his pitching. Maybe he should be above Ryan.

5. Hugh Duffy - I guess the CF glut has just taken over the top of my ballot. Every time I do a re-analysis, Duffy or Ryan turns out to be slightly in front of the other and it flip-flops each time. Now Ryan has the slight edge.

6. Tommy Leach - Another point towards the CF glut. I guess he is my type of player, lots of career Win Shares. 3b was still a key defensive position while he was playing there, so the defensive Win Shares make sense.

7. Heinie Groh - A player that I suspect will look better here than he does to common fans. Still I don't see him as better than Leach. Yes Groh has the advantage on peak but Leach has the superior career. Groh is one who does better when we look at the stats than histor says but so is Leach.

8. Jake Beckley - Hard to ignore his entire career. Even though the peak is not very high, he was still often the best first baseman. Moved up slightly this year.

9. Gavvy Cravath - I'm right now giving him a middling bump up for his missed years (about half a full year) but could give him more.

10. Clark Griffith - 2nd highest pitcher on the ballot. We'll see if he can hold his spot with the tidal wave coming.

11. Harry Hooper - Yes, he doesn't have much peak. However, his career is strong. Yes, he doesn't look like the best outfielder of his era. However, OF in the AL in those years is loaded.

12. George J. Burns - All those walks. Kind of like Sheckard lite. Very close in value to Hooper. Hooper has a little more from the longer career and playing in the stronger league. Burns
has the higher peak.

13. Larry Doyle - Definitely questions about his defense. Based on WS he'd probably be a couple of slots ahead. He fell a few spots, not because I dislike him more but because the others moved up.

I suspect everyone below this point is going to disappear from my ballot for a while in a few years. The others should be competitive after a little while.

14. Ed Williamson - Still a strong candidate, but of all the candidates the one who needs the strongest non-statistical boost.

15. Mike Tiernan - I always thought he was a little inferior to Thompson. The two are pretty close but that slight difference could be pretty important at this level.

Next groups. Listed alphabetically. Like what I do with grades, I tried to find break for these groups.

16-21: Bresnahan, Cooper, Childs, Evers, Poles and Welch.

22-25: Chance, Jennings, Konetchy and Veach.

26-30: Mendez, Mullane, Pike, Tinker and Waddell.
   140. MichaelD Posted: August 30, 2004 at 04:22 PM (#827410)
Missing:

Welch - I'm not convinced that the 5th or 6th best pitcher of the 80s is worthy enough. That would be saying that pitching extremely important in that decade.

Jennings - He needed a couple more years of quality play to be deserving in my opinion.

Pike - He just doesn't seem as strong as the others of his time and I feel his time has been adequately represented.
   141. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: August 30, 2004 at 05:07 PM (#827463)
OK folks, hereby submitting my first Hall of Merit ballot. As you will notice, I am mostly a peak value guy.

1. Walter Johnson - No remarks necessary.
2. Zack Wheat - No remarks necessary here, either, I don't think -- pretty obviously the 2nd-best player on the ballot.
3. Jose Mendez - I'm admittedly placing a lot of emphasis on anecdotal records of Mendez's dominance vs. major league teams. It's possible that I'm rating him too high and I'll continue to study the matter between now and the next election.
4. Pete Browning - Even considering relative league strength, a 162 OPS+ is very difficult to overlook.
5. Rube Waddell - A career only one season shorter than Clark Griffith's, but much more dominant.
6. Hughie Jennings - A very short career, but for a few years he was arguably the second-greatest SS ever.
7. Spotswood Poles - Fabulous peak and a player who, best as I can tell, was considered a HOF-level player during his career (although the HOF itself did not yet exist...)
8. Gavy Cravath - A career 150 OPS+ despite playing in an extreme hitter's park, plus an excellent minor league record, is good enough for me.
9. Jake Beckley - A career value guy, but 20 straight years of outstanding hitting is something very few candidates bring to the table.
10. Bill Monroe
11. George Van Haltren - Ranks this low thanks to having no discernable peak.
12. Lip Pike - Career too short, played against weak competition, but makes the ballot after allowing for pre-1871 play.
13. Larry Doyle - Short career, bad defensive rep, too much hitting to ignore.
14. Roger Bresnahan - Best offensive catcher in the first 50 years of MLB?
15. Frank Chance - Perhaps being dismissed too easily by the electorate? Oodles of OBP.

Other notables:
Clark Griffith - A peak value candidate, with a peak that I'm not overly impressed by.

Heinie Groh - A nice player, but an outstanding hitter for only 7 seasons, and his peak wasn't high enough to make up for it.

Hugh Duffy - To me, he misses HOM level on both peak and career value. Will likely never appear on one of my ballots.
   142. DavidFoss Posted: August 30, 2004 at 05:11 PM (#827471)
Welcome TdiEE!
   143. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 30, 2004 at 05:16 PM (#827476)
Heinie Groh - A nice player, but an outstanding hitter for only 7 seasons, and his peak wasn't high enough to make up for it.

In sixty years of professional baseball, he would be my pick for second greatest hitter at third (McGraw just didn't play that long to be #2). That sounds like an outstanding hitter for his position to me.

BTW, glad you made it, Eric!
   144. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: August 30, 2004 at 05:37 PM (#827507)
A career 150 OPS+ despite playing in an extreme hitter's park,

Seeing as how there were some years this slugger hit almost all of his homers in the home park, I'm not sure "despite" is the best word to use there.

But you did use the word "oodles" in your ballot, & that's clearly one of the most underutilized words in any language.

Welcome to the HoM & keep voting for Beckley!
   145. OCF Posted: August 30, 2004 at 07:32 PM (#827671)
53 ballots now. James Newburg and Michael Bass would make 55; the only other possible voters have been away for at least two years. All of you (Chris C., John Murphy) who've been worried about Groh being overlooked or underrated can stop worrying - his 3rd place finish is secure, as is the fact that he appears on at least 9 more ballots than anyone in the crowd chasing him. Average consensus score is about +5.5 pending the last two ballots, with the newcomer (EE) checking in at about +6.
   146. PhillyBooster Posted: August 30, 2004 at 07:46 PM (#827701)
Personally, I think that from a "baseball name" perspective, Heinie Groh is suffering from a severe consonant shortage. In a game dominated by the likes of Carl Yastrzemski (73% consonant),Ted Kluszewski (69% consonant) and even the shorter named Babe Ruth (63% consonant) and Barry Bonds (70-75% consonant, depending on your league's interpretation of the 'Sometime Y' rule), a guy like Heinie Groh (50% vowel) just doesn't stand a chance -- especially with a 50% vowel GERMAN name.
   147. DavidFoss Posted: August 30, 2004 at 07:57 PM (#827739)
Heinie should give one of his E's to Kent Hrbek (78% consonant).

German's love their E's. Some code breaking books I was reading a couple of years ago said that with single substitution code's its easy to identify the german language because its 20% letter E and few other languages are represented so much by a single letter.

Groh 3 of 4 consonants in it. Heinie's namesakes will have larger problems:

Heinie Meine
Heinie Mueller (both of them)
Heinie Peitz
Heinie Reitz
Heinie Scheer

Even Heinie Manush is worse off than Groh.
   148. PhillyBooster Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:03 PM (#827749)
On re-consideration, I believe that any definition of "vowel" that excludes the "h" at the end of Groh's name is simply worthless.

Under the newly instituted "Sometimes 'H'" rule, Groh descends to 40% consonant, and I'm not done my analysis of that first "H" either.
   149. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:07 PM (#827755)
If Groh should make the HOM, he'd join Willie Keeler as a 50% consonant guy.

But the question is, what to do about Joe Kelley?

Depending on whether you consider the ending y a vowel or not, he's either 44% or 55% consonants! ; )
   150. DavidFoss Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:08 PM (#827756)
Under the newly instituted "Sometimes 'H'" rule, Groh descends to 40% consonant, and I'm not done my analysis of that first "H" either.

:-)

I'm thinking this team is going to play its home games in Hawaii

(Also remember that the french use 'ou' for the letter 'w'... that really all the sound is anyways)
   151. PhillyBooster Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:27 PM (#827780)
If Groh should make the HOM, he'd join Willie Keeler as a 50% consonant guy.

Yeah. Well, don't even get me started on Nap Lajoie.
   152. OCF Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:50 PM (#827810)
At some point I used BBref to look up everyyone named "Heinie". They were rather concentrated in time, and have been gone for some time now. One thing: the vast majority of them, Groh included, had official (birth certificate) names assigned in English. Usually, including in Groh's case, the given name was Henry. Henry Knight Groh. The same applies to other German nicknames - for instance, John P. Wagner. Lou Gehrig could just as easily have been "Heinie" instead of "Lou".

The seldom-used backup catcher for the '83 Padres won't draw any votes for the HoM, but ...
   153. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:59 PM (#827820)
Heinie Gehrig? I don't think so.

The seldom-used backup catcher for the '83 Padres won't draw any votes for the HoM, but ...

Eyechart!
   154. Michael Bass Posted: August 30, 2004 at 09:00 PM (#827824)
Mainly WARP3, with some Win Shares emphasis to my analysis. OPS+ and RA+ (basically ERA+ with an eye out for high unearned run totals) are also used as a sanity check.

Sorry for the lateness of this ballot, got swamped this week, and am becoming increasingly dissatisfied with WARP. Does anyone notice that it seems to be changing weekly (or even more often) now? I guess maybe it's because they are updating it with the daily stats? Massively irritating for use in this project, and I am going in a different direction starting next week I believe.

1. Walter Johnson (new) - Duh. I think you can make a decent timeline argument for Clemens being better, but that's not particularly relevant now. The second best player we have covered, and moreover will continue to be the second best player through next election, too.

2. Hughie Jennings (3) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

3. Heinie Groh (new) - Great player, great peak, position where we could use some inductees.

4. Hugh Duffy (4) - Hugh was a strong hitter with a good offensive peak and a hell of a defender. A+ rating from Win Shares, despite playing more corner than center? Sign me up. Not sure what I was (or wasn't) looking at before on him.

5. Mike Griffin (5) - About the same level hitter as Duffy, just not quite as long of a peak. Very nice defender, too, almost entirely in center.

6. Bobby Veach (6) - Similar case to Groh. Peak a little less high, lasted a little longer.

7. Zach Wheat (new) - I think he was a heck of a player, but his peak was not impressive. Further, I unlike most voters buy BP's discounting of the NL in the teens. A fine choice, just not who I'd have taken from the newcomers.

8. Spotswood Poles (7) - A slightly lesser Pete Hill. Very worthy of election.

9. Fielder Jones (8) - I guess I like defense more than the group as a whole, but he had 4 really nice seasons in the midst of a nice career.

10. Jose Mendez (9) - Very similar to Waddell pitching-wise. His hitting moves him to one spot above him.

11. Rube Waddell (10) - Takes over for Griffith as my top MLB pitcher project. ERA+ overrates him because of his unearned runs, but love, love, love the strikeouts. Deserves more credit for his run prevention that other pitchers of that time because of them.

12. Dobie Moore (12) - If you like Hughie Jennings, you should like Dobie. Peak not as high as Hughie's, but more value outside of it if you give any credit at all for his army years. Much lower than Jennings on my ballot because his value isn't as concentrated.

13. Lave Cross (13) - Basically a Harry Hooper/Jake Beckley career, but at a position that I'm more inclined to give the benefit of the doubt.

14. Cupid Childs (14) - Not as much career as Cross, better peak, but not quite enough better. Not the right position for the era either.

15. Bill Monroe (15) - I like to see more hitting and a better peak from my NLers than what I see from Monroe, but he still had a very nice career that is not to be overlooked.


Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Van Haltren - Looking a little light on peak for me at the moment. Could work his way back into the mix with the new look next week.

Griffith - I think Waddell is the correct long-time ballot pitcher for induction.

Pike - I'm coming around on him. Did hit the ball awfully well. Not sure how much I want to discount baseball in his day.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. Would be a terrible choice for election.

Bresnahan - Wouldn't be so bad of a choice, especially for those yearning for position balance. I give a substantial catcher bonus, but it's not enough to get Roger on my ballot.

Welch - Run prevention just isn't there. Still, I think he could be a beneficiary of my reconsideration next week, we'll have to see.
   155. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 30, 2004 at 09:01 PM (#827827)
I was thinking about the Heinie Phenomeon over this past weekend, and my 10th and 11th grade German came leaping back to me. It makes sense that Henry would produce Heinie since auf Deutsch the cognate name is Heinrich with the first syllable pronounced with the long I sound.

You'd think then that Henny or Hennie would be the English equivalent of Heinie, but the only Henny I ever heard of asked me to take his wife, please.
   156. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 30, 2004 at 09:08 PM (#827834)
You'd think then that Henny or Hennie would be the English equivalent of Heinie, but the only Henny I ever heard of asked me to take his wife, please.

Ba-dum-cha!
   157. OCF Posted: August 30, 2004 at 09:18 PM (#827838)
Those infants in German-American households might well have been baptised as Heinrich Groh (shortened to Heinie for family use) or Johannes Wagner (shortened to Hans for family use) but the parents told the county clerk the names were Henry and John. Same with Henry Louis/Ludwig Heinrich Gehrig.

I may be voting for Stanislaw Kowalewski.
   158. Howie Menckel Posted: August 30, 2004 at 09:44 PM (#827860)
"The seldom-used backup catcher for the '83 Padres won't draw any votes for the HoM, but ...

Eyechart!"


... and pronounced, "GOOSH"
   159. DavidFoss Posted: August 30, 2004 at 09:58 PM (#827870)
What a great nickname!

He caught 6 games in 1984. I wonder if "GOOSH" every caught the Goose.
   160. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 30, 2004 at 11:59 PM (#827959)
The election is now over:

"Barney" and "Buck" are now immortals (again).
   161. OCF Posted: August 31, 2004 at 12:13 AM (#827981)
That's quite a knot we have for places 4-10. I'll tell you what I have, although the slightest tallying error would thoroughly scramble this:
478 Pike
467 Van Haltren
467 Beckley
463 Griffith
458 Jennings
411 Waddell
382 Welch
   162. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 31, 2004 at 01:04 AM (#828025)
I have the same thing, Ancient Redbird Fanatic (thank God for Evan's ballot counter!)
   163. Max Parkinson Posted: August 31, 2004 at 01:19 AM (#828038)
Shoulda emailed Newburg, shoulda emailed Newburg...

Assuming his order stood from his last ballot, and add Johnson and Wheat at 1,2 - Hughie moves up to 5th place, jumping 3 spots!

In reality, emailing him might have been going a little far.
   164. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 31, 2004 at 01:59 AM (#828084)
Shoulda emailed Newburg, shoulda emailed Newburg...

I e-mailed him this morning, Max.
   165. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: August 31, 2004 at 03:03 AM (#828139)
I've been using the counter this week, too, and have the same as OCF & John.
   166. OCF Posted: August 31, 2004 at 07:39 AM (#828382)
I'll add that I also have Johnson 1296 (unanimous), Wheat 997 (25 2nd place votes, 11 3rd place votes and on 53 of 54 ballots) and Groh 608 (no 2nd place but on 46 ballots). Of the 4-10 group above, Griffith appeared on 36 ballots, the others on fewer. Other newcomers: Shocker 100, 27th place; Schalk 27, 41st place, and Fournier 13, tied for 49th place.
   167. Brad G. Posted: August 31, 2004 at 02:01 PM (#828500)
Anyone have the final (unofficial) tallies across the board?
   168. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 31, 2004 at 02:33 PM (#828533)
Anyone have the final (unofficial) tallies across the board?

I do, Brad, but I'm waiting for the official ones from Joe.
   169. Rick A. Posted: August 31, 2004 at 04:11 PM (#828678)
Walter Johnson passed Honus Wagner for most votes by a first time electee, 1296-1152.
   170. ronw Posted: August 31, 2004 at 04:46 PM (#828742)
I have a Monday evening class to teach, so I'll always be a little late in posting results.

Here's what I submitted to Joe:

RK   LY  Player             PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1  n/e  Walter Johnson    1296   54  54                                          
 2  n/e  Zack Wheat         997   53     25 11  3  2  1  1  3  4     1     1  1   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 3  n/e  Heinie Groh        608   46         6  7  1  4  6  5  5  2     4     2  4
 4    5  Lip Pike           478   32      5  4  4  1  5  2  1  3        3  2     2
 5    3  George Van Haltren 467   34         7  5  2  1  4  2  2  1  7  1     1  1
 6    6  Jake Beckley       467   32      2  2  9  3  1  1  3  3  5  1  1        1
 7    4  Clark Griffith     463   36      1  2  4  5  2  3  2  2  4  2  1  6  1  1
 8    7  Hughie Jennings    458   32      6     3  2  5  1  1  3  1  5  1  1  3   
 9    8  Rube Waddell       411   31      1  2     5  5  4  3     1  7        3   
10   11  Mickey Welch       382   25      7  3     3  1  1  2  1  1     1     2  3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   12  Cupid Childs       366   31      1  1     3  4  1  3  4  3  1  2  1  5  2
12    9  Hugh Duffy         357   28      2     2  2  1  5  2  2  5  1  2  1  1  2
13   10  Roger Bresnahan    338   29         1     3  1  2  4  4  3  3  4  2  2   
14   14  Pete Browning      335   24         6  4  3  1  1        4     2     2  1
15   13  Jimmy Ryan         324   25         2  2  3  3  2  4     2  2  1  2  2   
16   16  Jose Mendez        279   24         1     3     2  4  2  1  2  7  1  1   
17   15  Tommy Leach        276   25         1     2  3  1  3  1  2  2  1  4  3  2
18   17  Bill Monroe        228   21         1     1  1  2  1  3  2  2  2  1  4  1
19   18  Charley Jones      214   17      1     2  1  1  3     2     2  2  1  2   
20   20  Larry Doyle        210   19      1  1  2  1     1     1        2  7  1  2
21   19  Spotswood Poles    188   18            2        2  1     2  3  1  4  2  1
22   22  Harry Hooper       164   13         1  1  1  3        2  1  1     2  1   
23   21  Bobby Veach        137   14               1  1  1        1  1  4  1  3  1
24   26  Addie Joss         117   10            1     1  1  1  1  2  1     1     1
25   29  Ed Cicotte         110    9         1     1  1  2              3        1
26   23  Frank Chance       107   11            1     1  1           2     2  1  3
27  n/e  Urban Shocker      100   10                        3  1  2        1  1  2
28   25  John McGraw         97    7      1        2  1        1           1  1   
29   32  Fielder Jones       95    7      1        1  1        1  1  1     1      
30   28  Gavy Cravath        91    8                  1  1  2  1     1     1     1
31   27  Ed Williamson       89    9                  1  1     1  1     1  1  2  1
32   24  George J. Burns     77    9                        1     1     3  1     3
33   31  Vic Willis          74    9                     1     1  1           1  5
34   30  Dobie Moore         65    8                              1  1  2  1     3
35   33  Lave Cross          58    5         1        1                 1  2      
36   36  Ed Konetchy         42    4                  1        1           1  1   
37   35  Mike Griffin        40    4               1                 1     1     1
38   34  Tommy Bond          37    4                           1     1     1  1   
39   37  Wilbur Cooper       36    3               1                 2            
40   39  Mike Tiernan        33    4                        1              1     2
41  n/e  Ray Schalk          27    3                              1     1     1   
42   40  Fred Dunlap         23    2                        1        1            
43   38  Jim McCormick       20    2                     1                       1
44   47T Tony Mullane        17    2                              1              1
45T  49  Donie Bush          17    1            1                                 
45T  45T Silver King         17    1            1                                 
47   41  Del Pratt           16    2                                    1     1   
48   54T Duke Farrell        15    1                  1                           
49T n/e  Jack Fournier       13    2                                          1  1
49T  42  Herman Long         13    2                                          1  1
51   45T Tom York            13    1                        1                     
52   --  John Donaldson      12    1                           1                  
53T  50  Sam Leever          11    1                              1               
53T  43T Ross Youngs         11    1                              1               
55   47T Bruce Petway         8    1                                       1      
56T  51T Jake Daubert         6    1                                             1
56T  51T Bobby Mathews        6    1                                             1
56T  43T Joe Tinker           6    1                                             1
Dropped out: Cy Seymour (53); Jim Whitney (54T)
   171. Rick A. Posted: August 31, 2004 at 05:08 PM (#828788)
History of most votes by a first-ballot electee
Year    Name           Votes
1898    Deacon White   657
1899    Jim O'Rourke   699
1900    John Clarkson  756
1902    Dan Brouthers  1005
1909    Ed Delahanty   1015
1917    Cy Young       1080
1922    Nap Lajoie     1091
1923    Honus Wagner   1152
1933    Walter Johnson 1296
   172. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 31, 2004 at 05:46 PM (#828867)
Scary, but my ballot counter matched Ron's perfectly. Once again, kudos go to Evan. I'm supporting him for the Pioneer section for the HoM! :-)
   173. OCF Posted: August 31, 2004 at 06:09 PM (#828908)
Ditto on matching the tally. Print it.

Consensus scores:

Best possible: +20. Average: 5.2 - the highest since 1925 but still well below the levels of 1922-24. Median was +6.

Highest scores this year: Howie Menckel +14; DanG +13; Adam Schafer, favre, Al Peterson, and Andrew Siegel, all +12.
Lowest scores this year: Max Parkinson and jimd, -10; Dolf Lucky -6; KJOK -4; Michael Bass, Brent, and TheGoodSamaritan, all -2.
My own score: +8, above average for the first time since 1925. Since John Murphy usually asks, he was at +4.

Candidate with the least disagreement: Johnson, of course. Candidates with the most disagreement: Welch, Pike, Jennings, Beckley. The disagreement level for Groh was low for his ballot position.

Prediction for 1934: the best possible will be above +30, several individuals will be above +20, and no one will be negative. (Well, maybe no one. I wouldn't want that to sound like a challenge.) Even though there will be no unanimity about the order of the top 5 candidates, there will be broad agreement as to who the top 5 are.
   174. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 31, 2004 at 06:34 PM (#828985)
Since John Murphy usually asks, he was at +4.

LOL

Sorry for being a pest, OCF. :-)

My number will be moving up with a bullet this year.

Ditto on matching the tally. Print it.

Since we're all in agreement, I don't think Joe will mind if I set it up.
   175. yest Posted: August 31, 2004 at 09:37 PM (#829356)
Just wondering what was mine because I think I was much closer to the group consensous then I was for a long time.
   176. OCF Posted: August 31, 2004 at 10:18 PM (#829433)
yest: +3
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