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Monday, September 06, 2004

1934 Ballot

Cobb! Speaker! Collins! Williams! Lloyd!

Who will win the John Murphy Lottery?

Oh, BTW, Cristobal Torriente, Stan Coveleski and Ben Taylor have the huge misfortune of also having their first year of eligibility this “year.”

Returnees include Heinie Groh, George Van Haltren, Lip Pike, Jake Beckley, Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings, Rube Waddell and Mickey Welch.


Hey! Let’s be careful out there (and Happy Labor Day!)

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 01:30 PM | 146 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 02:06 PM (#838614)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).


1) Eddie Collins-2B (n/e): Extremely close between Collins and Cobb, but Cocky narrowly beats him, IMO, when taking into account the attrition levels for their respective positions, the many World Series that Cocky was involved in and Cobb's irascible personality (though Collins had his dark side as a GM). Dominated the 1910s at second and has the greatest career value at that position. Best major league second baseman for 1909, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, close in 1918, 1919 and 1920. Best AL second baseman for 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925 and 1926.

2) Ty Cobb-CF/RF (n/e): I have to agree with Bill James about Cobb: I don't think he was the psychopath or even racist that he usually is portrayed. Much, much nicer guy than Anson, IMO. Yet, there were times... Best major league rightfielder for 1907, 1908 and 1909. Best major league centerfielder for 1910, 1911, 1915, 1916, 1918, 1919, 1920 and 1924.

3) Tris Speaker-CF (n/e): "The Grey Eagle" will probably make it this year because he has more WS and WARP3 over Collins (forgetting that it was easier as an outfielder to acquire them), but I can't say that I will be complaining. Best major league centerfielder for 1909, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923 and 1926.

4) John Henry Lloyd-SS/2B/1B (n/e): I don't think he was as good as Wagner, but El Cuchara for second greatest? I'd have to take him over Vaughan. Easily the greatest shortstop of the 1910s.

5) Smokey Joe Williams-P (n/e): I think he was slightly below Alexander. That means HoMer to me.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (2): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Heinie Groh-3B (3): Best third baseman of his era not name Frank Baker. Terrific hitting (second best at his position in major league history to date) and fielding for his position. Like Childs, many years as the best at his position, yet still had a long career for someone at his position. He belongs. Best major league third baseman for 1915, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920 and 1924.

8) Cristobal Torriente-CF/LF/RF/P (n/e): This guy was no where near being the best centerfielder of his time, but that tells you more about Cobb and Speaker than it does about Torriente. Great bat and glove.

9) Lip Pike-CF/RF/2B (4): Considered the fastest man of his time. Major star prior to the NA. Two things hold him back somewhat: durability and how good of a player he was at his position compared to his competition pre-NA (Pearce is not affected as much by the latter in my analysis, obviously). Best major league rightfielder for 1871 and 1873. Best major league centerfielder for 1874-1876.

10) Charley Jones-LF/CF (5): Like York below, he was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

11) Vic Willis-P (7): Why does this man receive such little respect? Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

12) Tom York-LF (8): I know some here looking at his OPS+ must be saying to themselves "Murph has him over guys like Sheckard?!?" Fair question, but, IMO, York was a more dominating player at his position than Sheckard was during his time. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today) deserves a ballot spot.Best leftfielder of the 1870s. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).

13) Jake Beckley-1B (9): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

14) Mickey Welch-P (10): I have to admit that the 1880s had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Rube Waddell-P (11): If he had been a little more serious and quit the horse playing... Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.


Van Haltren was knocked off when the new guys came on my ballot. Griffith and Jennings have also moved farther away than they were, obviously.

Of the newbies, Coveleski and Taylor have good shots of making my ballot in a few years.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 02:25 PM (#838623)
Tom Hanrahan's ballot:

prelim (and final) 1934 ballot from Tom "seriously delusional" Hanrahan:

This is a great 3 weeks to force myself to be busied with more important but less fun things in life. So, I submit this: please count it as my ballot. I certainly don't think my initial gut placement of Williams, Lloyd, Torriente, and Coveleski is necessarily correct, but for this project it won't matter much if I'm off a bit.

Now if I can only make myself stop reading everything on this board 3 times a day....

1-Ty Cobb (new)
Arguably the greatest CF ever
2-Tris Speaker (new)
Arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever, and greatest defensive player before WWII.
3-Eddie Collins (new)
Arguably the greatest second baseman ever
4-Pop Lloyd (new)
Somewhat plausibly the greatest shortstop ever
5-Smokey Joe Williams (new)
Arguably the greatest Negro League pitcher ever
6-Cristobal Torriente (new)
7-Clark Griffith (2)
Like my wonderful wife: the more I look, the more pure gold I find underneath :)
8-Stan Coveleski (new)
And he might belong above Mr. Griffith

Other very fine ballplayers:
9-George Van Haltren (4)
Hit. Ran. Played defense. Pitched. Long career. Played in one-league 1890s. Solidly on my ballot.
10-John McGraw (5)
I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP ain’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us. KJOK will keep me from being the best FOJMcG.
11-Lip Pike (6)
AdjEqA of .302. Fine WS and OPS+. Played infield too. Concerns about his ethics’ affect on team performance made me drop him a bit.
12-Rube Waddell (7)
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit.
13-Heinie Groh (8)
Almost as much value in twelve years as Leach had in seventeen.
14-Roger Bresnahan (9)
A nod to position scarcity. A great player when he was on the field.
15-Addie Joss (10)
Bonus points for his great pennant exploits.

This of course assumes WJ and ZW get elected in '33; if not, I 'spose this ballot don't count.

Lots of players drop off; I hope we are a bit lenient on the "need to justify" rule next week :)
   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 02:44 PM (#838643)
Rick A's ballot:

OK, I'll be going on vacation for the next 2 weeks. This is my official 1934 ballot. Could someone move it over to the 1934 ballot thread when it is up? Thanks.

PHOM
Ty Cobb
Pop Lloyd

1934 Ballot
1.Ty Cobb – One of the top 2 players who’ve been eligible so far. (The other is Honus Wagner)
2.Pop Lloyd – Would rank #1 in almost any other election. Only one thing stands out for me. People have compared him to Honus Wagner, and they’ve been taken seriously. This is enough to get up to #2 on the ballot.
3.Smokey Joe Williams – Would rank #1 in almost any other election. Looking forward to when Satchel Paige gets on the ballot to see who really was the best pitcher in Negro Leagues history.
4.Eddie Collins – Would rank #1 in almost any other election. (Does anyone else sense a pattern here) As far as I’m concerned “Cocky” Collins had every right to be cocky.
5.Tris Speaker – Would rank #1 in almost any other election. Just slightly behind Collins. Amazing that a player of this quality is ranked #5.
6.Cristobal Torriente –Would rank #1 in … well, some elections. Blows HOMer Pete Hill away. Great career and peak value.
7.Charley Jones – Would rank #1 in … well, no he wouldn’t. Very good hitter, though. 96% of value is above average. Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
8.Lip Pike – 95% of documented career is above average. Fresh look at Charley Jones, Pike, and Browning made me change my order of them. Elected PHOM in 1918.
9.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average.
11.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days.
12.Stan Coveleski – Not sure if I’m overrating him or underrating him. Need to see some more of his contemporaries to get a real handle on him.
13.Ed Williamson – Overvalued him in previous elections. Much closer to Groh and Leach than I thought. Still a damn good player, though. Still may be overrating him. Elected PHOM in 1931
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense. Took another look at him and he moved up a couple of spots
15.Tommy Leach – Good peak and decent career. I’ll take Leach’s career over Groh’s peak.

Required Explanations
16.Heinie Groh – Took a fresh look at Groh and other thirdbasemen. Very close to Leach, but I like Leach’s career a little more than Groh’s peak. A couple more years would’ve moved him up quite a bit.

20.George Van Haltren –I tend to really like steady careers like Van Haltren, Griffin, Beckley, but just can’t see him jumping over anyone on my ballot.

22.Clark Griffith –Won lots of games with bad teams. Was overrating him, so he dropped a few slots.

26.Rube Waddell –Impressive SO ability, but his record should be SO much better than it actually is.

30.Mickey Welch – Never sure about Welch. Compares with McCormick and Mullane, but I’m always re-evaluating these 3.

Off the ballot
16-20 Groh, Cooper, Mendez, Monroe, Van Haltren
21-25 Poles, Griffith, Willis, Doyle, Tiernan
26-30 Waddell, Bresnahan, McGraw, Bond, Welch
31-35 Griffin, Chance, Burns, Veach, Ryan
   4. OCF Posted: September 06, 2004 at 03:26 PM (#838652)
1934 ballot. Going early this time.
1. Tyrus R. Cobb (new) We've got our combination categories, like power-speed. How about this one: great player, but widely despised and often booed? Before Cobb, the press wasn't robust enough to support the "widely despised." Perhaps only Ted Williams and Barry Bonds can compete at this level.
2. Edward T. Collins (new) Why Collins over Speaker? Maybe it's just that, while I always knew Collins was great, every time I find out anything new about him, his stock goes up.
3. Tristram E. Speaker (new) Not that I have anything bad to say about Speaker. They're all going in, soon enough.
4. Joe Williams (new) I'd put Alexander ahead of him, but that's more about Alexander than about Williams. Of course he belongs in the HoM.
5. John Henry Lloyd (new) A great, great player - but an A or A- hitter, not an A+ like Wagner or Collins.
6. Cristobal Torriente (new) Another week or two of discussion is in order, but no reason to put him behind any of the outfield backlog.
7. George Van Haltren (8, 2, 1, 2, 3) As "peakless" careers go, he's got substantially more offensive peak than the likes of Beckley or Hooper. Not much pitching value (and it was a whole lot easier to be a pitcher-hitter before 1893 than after), but what little pitching there is serves as a tiebreaker among similar candidates.
8. Jimmy Ryan (6, 3, 2, 3, 4) Nearly indistinguishable from Van Haltren. 26th year on my ballot.
9. Larry Doyle (2, 5, 3, 4, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
10. Stanislaus Kowalewski (new). The best of the 3000-inning pitchers, other than maybe Vance. Had an off year in 1924, but a big contributor to the Senators' 1925 pennant.
11. Heine Groh (----, 6) This may be too high, but was an MVP candidate more than once.
12. Hugh Duffy (7, 4, 4, 5, 7) 28th year on my ballot.
13. Rube Waddell (4, 6, 5, 6, 8) The best one left from his generation, and I have him ahead of Griffith - but he's going to lose ground to a new generation of pitchers, of whom Coveleski is only the first.
14. Roger Bresnahan (9, 8, 6, 7, 9) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
15. Jake Beckley (18, 10, 11, 11, 10) No peak, long career. But still more peak than Hooper. Decided to move him ahead of Cravath.
16. Gavy Cravath (10, 9, 7, 8, 11) A big offensive peak. Yes, he took unique advantage of his park, but real wins resulted from that. Seriously lacking in bulk unless you also consider his work in Minneapolis.
17. Jose Mendez (---, 9, 12) Keeping him in position relative to other pitchers.
18. Frank Chance (13, 11, 10, 12, 13) I could have him higher; huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
19. Ben Taylor (new)
20. Mickey Welch (5, 7, 8, 10, 14) 300 wins, but the 80's are already well-represented.
21. George J. Burns (--, 11, 13, 15) My current favorite leadoff hitter, ahead of Thomas, Hartsel, and Bush. (See also the NBJHBA.)
22. Vic Willis (11, 12, 12, 14, 16) I could reasonably have him right up there with Waddell.
23. Jack Fournier (----, 17) Matches up will with Cravath. Less defense, a less-developed minor league back story - but he could mash.
24. Tommy Leach (----, 18) The candidacy of Groh throws some relief on his case - I think I've been underrating him.
25. Johnny Evers (12, 16, 20, 24, 19) Him, too.
Falling off the back of the list: Hooper, Adams, Long, Tinker, Griffith, Shocker, Veach, Jennings.
   5. Sean M Posted: September 06, 2004 at 03:47 PM (#838656)
Alright, what a great ballot, here goes:

1.Ty Cobb: I rank him as the second greatest position player in baseball history. The second greatest player eligible so far, trialing only the Big Train.

2.Eddie Collins: The best-around player at his position in history.

3.Joe Williams: Probably a lot like Bob Feller, may have been even better than Satchel Paige.

4.Tris Speaker: A number one most any other year, Tris is one of the 3 best CFers of all-time.

5.Pop Lloyd: Again, likely not as good as Wagner. but was the best SS in NL history by most accounts.

6.Cristobal Torriente: The slugger of the great Foster teams, I am sure he will get in the HOM someday.

7.Rube Waddell: I've argued him to death elsewhere, but simply put, he put up some staggering numbers.

8.Jake Beckley: Great longevity totals, not as bad a peak as some would like to say.

9.Mickey Welch: Again, the notion that you can win 309 games simply from playing on a very good team has totally devalued this fine pitcher.

10.George Van Haltren: This is about where I draw the line on players I want to get inducted.

11.Heinie Groh: The best 3B available, nuff said.

12.Stan Coveleski: 1917-1921 is a very impressive run, apparently he was a good releiver too.

13.Eddie Cicotte: Three fantastic years make up the most of his career, postseason stats aren't that bad either ;)

14.Ben Taylor: Could possibly be the second greatest NL first baseman, but for now, I am going conservative with him.

15.Jimmy Ryan: A lot like GVH, both will likely drop in future elections.

16-25: Duffy, Willis, Griffith, Monroe, Mendesz, Bresnahan, Evers, Chance, Cravath, Leach
   6. Chris Cobb Posted: September 06, 2004 at 04:13 PM (#838669)
1934 Ballot

The arrival of the Magnificent Seven. Some numbers listed, for a change.

1. Ty Cobb. (n/e) Career adjusted win shares 782, top among players so far eligible. Total peak 300, top among eligibles. Peak rate, 07-17 = 47.43 ws/162 games, #3 among eligible position players. Honus Wagner ranks ahead of him all time because I give him an infielder bonus to career value and he beats Cobb on peak rate, but it's close between them. No one else eligible is close to them.
2. Tris Speaker. (n/e) cws 690, #5 among eligibles. Tp 269, #5 among eligibles. Pr, 12-17 = 46.16 ws/162, #4 among eligible position players. With infielder career bonuses, Collins is close to Speaker, but The Gray Eagle edges him on all three measures.
3. Eddie Collins. (n/e). cws 627, #7 among eligibles. Tp 213, #7 among eligibles, peak rate, 09-15 = 43.98 ws/162 games, #6 among eligible position players. Awesome player: #6 all time among eligibles, but two of the five ahead of him are on the ballot this year.
4. John Henry Lloyd. (n/e) cws 543, #9 among eligibles, tp 118, #13 among eligible position players. A lot of pitchers rate ahead of him, but pitchers tend to have higher peak value and lower career value than position players. Lloyd’s tp is comparable to Hamilton, Delahanty, Hines, but he beats this calibre of HoMer on career value). Pr 36.46 ws/162 games, # 21 among eligible position players. Most ahead of Lloyd are 19th-century players, when rates tended to be higher. #10 all time among eligibles.
5. Joe Williams. (n/e) Study of his Negro-League record makes him look more like Bob Feller than like Pete Alexander, if Bob Feller hadn’t missed four years for WWII and had pitched successfully until he was 40. ERA+ of about 122-120 in 5000-6000 ip. I have him as the 4th or 5th best pitcher so far eligible, behind Johnson, Young, and Mathewson. I’m not sure whether he or Kid Nichols is next. That puts him at about #14 or #15 all time among eligibles.
6. Cristobal Torriente. (n/e) cws 402, #36 among eligibles, 110 tp, #18 among position players eligible, pr, 15-20 = 37.10 ws/162 games, #20 among position players eligible. Would have been a first-ballot HoMer in a majority of elections.
7. Stan Coveleski. (n/e). For numbers on Coveleski, see my post in the 1934 discuss thread. Best pitcher eligible after Joe Williams. He’s not a shoo-in pitcher like Johnson, Williams, and Alexander, but he’s the best of the rest between 1910 and 1930. I think an apt analogy for Coveleski’s position relative to the three shoo-in pitchers is Frank Baker to Eddie Collins.
8. Clark Griffith. (3) Top returning candidate. Best remaining player from the still-underrepresented 1890s. I think he was better than Rusie. My system shows him at 36.5 support-neutral wins above average.
9. George Van Haltren (4) All-around, consistent talent; just the sort of player who has been underrated in traditional discussions of merit.
10. Mickey Welch. (5) 8th-10th best player of the 1880s. 33.5 support-neutral wins above average. Accomplished this feat against weaker competition in much easier conditions for pitchers, so despite higher career value, he ranks below Griffith.
11. Heinie Groh (6) . I’m pleased that he seems to be getting his due from the electorate.
12. Hughie Jennings (7) The third 1890s star still featured on my ballot. During his 1894-1898 peak, he was the best position player in baseball, and better than a pair of contemporary first-ballot HoMers, Billy Hamilton and Ed Delahanty, who were also at their peaks during these years.
13. Tommy Leach (8) Last star of the aughts who is a serious candidate for election.
14. Lip Pike. (9) Makes my ballot for the 32nd consecutive year.
15. Urban Shocker (10) A very underrated player; he might well be a HoMer. Shocker had a couple of great seasons in 1920 and 1921, and he was above average every single year he pitched. In comparing Shocker to a pitcher like Waddell, the electorate should keep in mind that average innings pitched for a starting pitcher dropped from an average of 277 for 1900-1909 to 230 for 1917-1926 as conditions for pitchers became increasingly difficult.

Top Ten Returning Players from 1933 Who Don’t Make my 1934 Ballot

Jake Beckley. See #38 below
Rube Waddell. See #22 below
Cupid Childs. See #27 below
Hugh Duffy. See #20 below.
   7. Chris Cobb Posted: September 06, 2004 at 04:14 PM (#838670)
1934 Off-Ballot

16. Spotswood Poles (11) His peak was short, but strong in relation to his contemporaries. He’s stayed in the mix without having a vocal champion; I think he’ll rise to serious contention in time. He’s at the top of a group of second-tier stars from the 1910s – Poles, Mendez, Hooper, Doyle – whom I may be underrating.
17. Jose Mendez (12) Mendez was lights-out during his peak, which is better than that of any eligible pitcher aside from Johnson. After 1914 he didn’t pitch much, but he remained a highly effective in a limited role.
18. Harry Hooper (13). jimd's arguments about league quality have convinced me to reassess Cravath/Burns/Hooper/Veach as Hooper/Veach/Cravath/Burns, so Hooper moves into the rank formerly held by Cravath, and also moves above Larry Doyle, though I have some reservations about putting yet another teens outfielder up higher. Further movement is possible as I continue to study league quality issues.
19. Larry Doyle (14). Last of the possibly-underrated teens group.
20. Hugh Duffy (12). Like the four above, bumped off the ballot by the great class of 1934. He will probably be back around the bottom of my ballot in five years or so.
21. Wilbur Cooper (16) A consistently fine pitcher for 8 years. A Griffithesque career, but not quite as high a peak, and a couple of bad years outside his peak, which Griffith never had. Could move up or down significantly as I continue to study his contemporaries. He might be a worthy HoMer in his context, though the distance between his achievements and those of Shocker and Coveleski are making upward movement on his part look less likely than it did two years ago.
22. Rube Waddell (17) See Shocker comment above for more on how I compare Waddell to later pitchers. Waddell was a great talent, and he was one of the greatest characters in the history of major-league baseball. He’s thus deserving of his place in the Hall of Fame, but I think his value is just below the threshold for Hall of Merit induction.
23. Ben Taylor (n/e) Best Negro-League first-baseman to date, and best first baseman of the 1910s. Still probably not a HoMer. Like his contemporaries Konetchy and Daubert, he was a very good hitter and a fine defensive first baseman, but he was a star, not a superstar. Might move up into contention if the 16-19 group jumps upward.
24. Bobby Veach (18)
25. Roger Bresnahan (19) Top catcher of the aughts. Will probably stay off ballot for a long time now, unless the arrival of the great catchers of the twenties causes me to reevaluate catchers up as a group.
26. Jimmy Ryan (20)
27. Cupid Childs (21). I see Groh, Jennings, and Doyle all as superior to Childs among short-career infield candidates, and he doesn’t rank all that highly against his 1890s contemporaries, either.
28. Fielder Jones (22)
29. Dobie Moore (23)
30. Gavvy Cravath (24)
31. Herman Long (25)
32. Tommy Bond (26)
33. George Burns (27)
34. Charley Jones (28)
35. Bruce Petway (29)
36. Bill Monroe (30)
37. Babe Adams (31)
38. Jake Beckley (32) Like Childs, Beckley just doesn’t appear outstanding in comparison to his contemporaries. Lack of better first-basemen could give him a positional boost, but right now I don’t see the justification for a positional bonus for first base.
39. Frank Chance (33)
40. Tony Mullane (34)

Dropped Out of Top 40

Dick McBride (35) Last hurrah for the 1860s; it’s unlikely he’ll return to the top 40
Ed Konetchy (36)
Lave Cross (37)
Addie Joss (38)
John McGraw (39)
Johnny Evers (40)

Other new eligibles worthy of mention:

Jules Thomas – third-best Negro League outfielder of the teens, after Torriente and Poles. He may deserve a place in the top 40, but with so much work to be done on Lloyd, Williams, Torriente, and Taylor among Negro-Leaguers and with 1920s pitchers to try to get Coveleski placed, I just haven’t had time to study Thomas properly. I hope to study him for 1935 together with Bingo DeMoss and Bernardo Baro. He shouldn’t be forgotten: he might have been as good as Spotswood Poles. Even if he were, he wouldn’t make my ballot in 1934, though, so I figure waiting a year to place him properly isn’t costing him a vote he deserves.
   8. karlmagnus Posted: September 06, 2004 at 04:19 PM (#838673)
Tough year. I’m comfortable ranking Ty ahead of everyone and Collins ahead of Speaker (the latter being close.) My problem comes with the Negro League stats, which seem to be grossly optimistic – if you believe I9, or even I9 minus 5% we’ll have 30 NL players in the HOM, 2½ times their share of the population, statistically very unlikely to be “correct.” Believing therefore that the stats and their interpretation are wrong, I’ve applied a 10% discount on quantity and a 15% discount on quality to the I9 projections, which tallies in these cases fairly closely with Chris Cobb’s work and puts Williams and Lloyd close to Speaker but below him and Torriente close to Beckley/Welch but below them. All three are HOMers even on my stern definition, though.

Coveleski is also good enough not to be forgotten – would be much higher most years. Taylor and Thomas both as good as 2nd tier NL candidates we’ve been considering and in some cases, possibly wrongly (Foster, Johnson, Hill) electing. It’s gonna be a long struggle for Beckley and Welch, alas.

1. Ty Cobb. I alternate between Ty and Ted Williams as my favorite “pre-seeing-them-live” ballplayers (physically, I could have seen Ted, but was living on the wrong continent.) Soppy Montville bio of Williams has pushed me towards Ty. Should be in the Investors HOF for picking GM and Coca-Cola in the private equity stage, before they went public. I find Ty a very attractive personality, but I also found Richard Nixon a very attractive personality; so sue me!

2. Eddie Collins Figures almost as good as Tris, but he was an infielder. He and not Shoeless Joe was the main reason the Black Sox were rightly prohibitive favorites for the ’19 Series.

3. Tris Speaker This is the only year in history where he would rank as low as #3 (better than Matty or Nap, in my view.) Plus he was a Red Sox, and a central player of the dynasty. Losing Speaker and Cicotte at least as important as losing Ruth in condemning Sox to mediocrity.

4. Smokey Joe Williams Striking out 20 of the 1917 Giants, who won the National League is damn impressive – Clemens’ records weren’t against that level of competition. Level with Matty, behind Alexander sounds about right, even with the putative 400 wins (or 399 per Chris Cobb)

5. John Henry Lloyd Don’t see him as Top 10 all-time, but almost certainly top 50. I9 figures inflated, though; Chris Cobb’s arguments look to me persuasive, he’s not as good as Williams.

6. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2) Jake Beckley Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (8 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (5 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707 not as good as outfielder glut - but much of his career was played in the dead ball ‘00s, and 1B was a marginally more important fielding position than outfielder then. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

7. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3) Mickey Welch “Money” slot again, probably his last for some time unless Beckley gets elected. - 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the short career dead ball era pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was better than the 00s pitchers, all of whom were pitching in favorable conditions, none of whom (other than Young and Matty) got near 300 wins.

8. Cristobal Torriente. I’m satisfied he was a great player and HOM-worthy, but probably the lower half of the HOM. His I9 translations beat Beckley/Welch, but not by much and I think I9’s too high. But everybody down to about 11-12 on this ballot is easily HOM-worthy, in my view.
   9. karlmagnus Posted: September 06, 2004 at 04:21 PM (#838675)
9. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) By a significant margin the best pitcher on the current ballot except Williams – only loses to Welch on longevity.

10. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

11. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

12. (N/A-8-7-8) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B, and I’ve been undervaluing him, significantly.

13. (N/A-9) Heinie Groh Close to a clone of Childs, so fits here. 1774 hits, OPS+118, TB+BB/PA .431, TB+BB/Outs .666 (all 3 below Childs). 3B in 10s probably about equivalent to 2B in 90s.

14. (N/A-12-10) Sam Leever 194-100 and an ERA+ of 123 get him above Van Haltren and Ryan, there being no outfielder dearth. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Much better ERA+ than Tannehill, and W/L pct close to record territory. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Above Waddell for the “would you want him on your team” factor, moral probity.

15. (N/A) Stan Coveleski More wins than Leever and a similar ERA+, but started at the normal time, and less W/L pct. One of the best of his era, and will rank much higher in years to come.

OFF BALLOT
16. (N/A-10-9-8-11) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan
17. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

18. (N/A-9-10-10-13) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so no higher than the middle of this weak ballot. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

19. (N/A-11-14)Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134 and moves up owing to pitcher dearth, although his unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

20. (N/A-13-15) Vic Willis Moved up owing to pitcher dearth 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

21. (9-12-12-11-9-10-10-13-12-15-14-N/A-12-13-11-13-13-15-N/A) Lip Pike - Like Start, give some credit for missing 1860s. However, normalize 1871-78 season by season and he gets 1,592 hits after 26 - not quite an obvious HOM-er. 4 “normalized 200-hit” seasons, but only just, whereas Meyerle’s 1871 peak normalizes to 320 (obviously a random fluctuation, but in the right direction!)TB+BB/PA .478, TB+BB/Outs .713.

22. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike. Lower than Pike because not a huge pre-’71 career. Drops off in ’32, back in later 30s, hopefully.

23. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
24. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
25. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
26. Ben Taylor Are ALL the great NL’ers eligible in 1934? I’m putting him here, above Poles, he may well make the ballot in weak years.
27. Deacon McGuire
28. Tony Mullane
29. Jim McCormick
30. Spotswood Poles.
31. Larry Doyle
32. Roger Bresnahan. Santop, not this guy, is by far the best catcher of the era. Short career, and only about half of it as catcher.
33. Harry Hooper.
34. Jules Thomas. A smidgen less than Poles, I think. But you’re right, he’s a serious candidate.
35. Wilbur Cooper
36. Bruce Petway.
37. Jack Clements
38. Bill Monroe
39. Jose Mendez I9 has him below 200 wins and with a pretty unimpressive WPct. Pretty clearly not as good as Foster.
40. Chief Bender
41. Ed Konetchy
42. Hughie Jennings Not a historic peak, and a very short career.
43. Jesse Tannehill
44. Bobby Veach
45. Tommy Leach
46. Lave Cross
47. Tom York
   10. ronw Posted: September 06, 2004 at 04:33 PM (#838682)
1934 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. I'll gladly incorporate WARP when they tell me how they reach their numbers.)

1. Ty Cobb No one’s friend, immortal player. MVP candidate 1907-1913, 1915-1919, All-Star candidate 1906, 1914, 1920-1925, 1927. (21 HOM seasons). PHOM 1934.

2. Pop Lloyd Subjective fit here, but the only other “best player ever” candidate on the ballot. PHOM 1934.


3. Eddie Collins Best 2B ever, but rarely viewed as such. MVP candidate 1909-1917, 1919-1920, All-Star candidate 1918, 1921-1926 (18 HOM seasons, partial WWI credit)

4. Tris Speaker One of the two best long-career fielding CF ever. MVP candidate 1909-1910, 1912-1920, 1923, All-Star candidate 1911, 1921-1922, 1924-1927 (19 HOM seasons)

5. Joe Williams Another subjective placement, but 2-5 are essentially equal.

6. Christobal Torriente Big gap between him and below.

7. George Van Haltren Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

8. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters, but I’m a career/prime man. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

9. Jimmy Ryan My system likes Jimmy about as much as Van Haltren and Sheckard. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

10.Ben Taylor I decided Ben’s lengthy, solid career belongs with my career guys.

11. Harry Hooper I can’t support Beckley, Van Haltren, and Ryan, and ignore Hooper. MVP candidate 1918, All-Star candidate 1910-1917, 1919-20, 1922, 1924. (13 HOM seasons) PHOM 1931.

12. Heinie Groh - A rare infielder sighting on my ballot. MVP candidate 1917-1919. All-Star candidate 1914-1916, 1920-21, 1923-24. (10 HOM seasons).

13. Hugh Duffy Part of the now underrepresented CF block, but significantly below Van Haltren, Sheckard and Ryan. MVP candidate 1893-1894, All-Star candidate 1889-1892, 1895-1899. (11 HOM seasons)

14. Mickey Welch Solid pitcher is losing his luster as more 1880’s contemporaries join the HOM. With the lack of 1890’s quality, I think he still rates here. MVP candidate 1884-1885, All-Star candidate 1880-81, 1883, 1886-1889 (9 HOM seasons)

15. Tony Mullane I don’t see much between Welch and Mullane. I know this puts me in the minority. MVP candidate 1882-1884, All-Star candidate 1886-1893 (11 HOM seasons)


MISSING OUT, in no particular order anymore.

Lip Pike – Would probably be in my PHOM if we started the election earlier. MVP candidate 1876 All-star candidate 1871-75, 1877-78. (7 HOM seasons)

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown or perhaps even Waddell or Coveleski. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)

Rube Waddell - Fun man who needed to play longer. MVP candidate 1902, 1905. All-Star candidate 1901, 1903-1904, 1906-1908. (8 HOM seasons).

Cupid Childs – Not enough career, but a fine player. MVP candidate 1890. All-Star candidate 1891-1898. (9 HOM seasons).
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 04:44 PM (#838691)
I find Ty a very attractive personality, but I also found Richard Nixon a very attractive personality; so sue me!

Yes, for all of you who were guessing, "karlmagnus" is the alias used for the Governator. :-D
   12. Adam Schafer Posted: September 06, 2004 at 05:34 PM (#838719)
1. Ty Cobb (n/a) - no need to explain

2. Eddie Collins (n/a) - The greatest second baseman

3. Tris Speaker (n/a) - I love the batting average and the extra hits he has over Collins, but Collins was simply more dominating at second then Tris was in the OF.

4. Pop Lloyd (n/a) - I love Smokey Joe, but it appears to me that Pop was more dominating and
more deserving at his position then Smokey was at pitching...nothing against Smokey though,
he's only one spot down.

5. Smokey Joe Williams (n/a) - see Pop

6. Mickey Welch (2) - This ballot sure hurt his #1 and #2 ranking I've been keeping him at.

7. Clark Griffith (4) - Big jump for Griffith. All of the talk on Welch has had me reevaluate
Griffith. Turns out Griffith was much more valuable than I was giving him credit for.

8. Stan Coveleski (n/a) - I initially had him ranked 17th on my ballot, but since then I've read everyone's comments on him and have decided that I had him way too low.

9. Rube Waddell (5) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

10. Cristobal Torriente (n/a) - EXCELLANT player, just not in Pop or Smokey Joe territory

-----------------------My PHOM line-----------------------------------------------------------

11. Lip Pike (6) - I bump him ahead of a couple others this year as I am convinced he was a
bigger stud than I was willing to let myself believe. I can see him finally getting in one of these days.

12. George Van Haltren (7) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.

13. Jose Mendez (8) - I thought I'd have him a lot higher than this, but I just don't feel like
I have a firm grasp of his career yet. I do feel much more comfortable with him than I do with Rube Foster though.

14. Jake Beckley (9) - Big drop for a guy that would've been #2 on my ballot this year. I didn't find any reason to like him any less, I just found justification in moving several
others higher than him.

15. Roger Bresnahan (10) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I would've ranked Roger higher had he caught more and played the OF less during his peak years.

16. Hughie Jennings (11) - Nothing new to add

17. Heinie Groh (12) - One of the best thirdbasemen to date

18. Bobby Veach (13) - Not enough career for him to merit a higher ranking on my ballot, but enough peak to grab a lower spot.

19. Jimmy Ryan (14) - A watered down Van Haltren

20. Eddie Cicotte (15) - Underrated in my opinion. May not be HOM material, but underrated
nonetheless.

21. Urban Shocker (16) - 8 good pitching seasons. Nothing spectacular, but a respectable
career.

22. Hugh Duffy (17) - Back onto my ballot. No new thoughts on him

23. Harry Hooper (18) - nothing overly impressive about his career. I originally thought he would rank much higher than this on my initial ballot, but he just doesn't meet the
qualifications in my mind that everyone above him does.

24. Jim McCormick (19) - He's no Mickey Welch

25. Cupid Childs (20)

26. Bill Doak (n/a) - Yep, he almost cracked my top 25. Ok, he lost a lot of games but his ERA
was outstanding, and he played for the Cardinals before the Gas House Gang came in, and let's
face it, those St. Louis teams just weren't very good. He did awful well for having such awful
teams.
   13. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 06:02 PM (#838764)
26. Bill Doak (n/a) - Yep, he almost cracked my top 25. Ok, he lost a lot of games but his ERA
was outstanding, and he played for the Cardinals before the Gas House Gang came in, and let's
face it, those St. Louis teams just weren't very good. He did awful well for having such awful
teams.


Boy, if you like Doak, you must love Willis (who kicks Doak's butt all over the place ERA+ and innings-wise)! :-)
   14. PhillyBooster Posted: September 06, 2004 at 06:43 PM (#838852)
"Greatest X on the Ballot" Edition.

1. Eddie Collins (n/e) -- Greatest second baseman on the ballot. Also, greatest second baseman of all time.
2. Pop Lloyd (n/e) -- Greatest Negro Leaguer on the ballot. Also, greast Negro League player to date
3. Joe Williams (n/e) -- Greatest pitcher on the Ballot. Greatest Negro League pitcher to date.
4.Ty Cobb (n/e) -- Greatest outfielder on the ballot. Possibly the greatest centerfielder of all-time. Possibly not. Loses out to Collins on defense, intangibles, and post-season play.
5. Tris Speaker (n/e) -- First player on ballot who is not arguably the best anything on the ballot really.
6. Jake Beckley (2) -- Greatest non-new player on the ballot.
7. Mickey Welch (3) -- Greatest 19th century player on the ballot
8. Cristobal Torriente (n/e) -- Greatest Cuban player on the ballot
9. Jose Mendez (5) -- Greatest Cuban pitcher on the ballot
10. Gavy Cravath (6) -- Greatest PCL, American Association, and dead-ball slugger on the ballot.
11. Lip Pike (7) -- Greatest NA player on the ballot
12. Roger Bresnahan (8) -- Greatest catcher on the ballot.
13. Pete Browning (10) -- Greatest AA star on the ballot.
14. Bill Monroe (11) -- Went from #1 black player on the ballot to #4.
15. Clark Griffith (13) -- Greatest 1890s pitcher on the ballot.

Dropping off for the moment: 16. Groh, 19. Childs 20. van Haltren, and 21. Chance. All should be back eventually.

Covaleski places as tied for the next pitcher spot with Cicotte. They are currently 17/18 or 18/17. I don’t have to decide this week.
   15. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 07:17 PM (#838877)
Matt:

You should have tried these:

Tris Speaker: Greatest player who was a member of the KKK at one time, but wasn't a racist

Bill Monroe: Greatest Bill Monroe who played baseball, but not the mandolin

:-)
   16. OCF Posted: September 06, 2004 at 07:30 PM (#838894)
From the lead-in to the thread:

Hey! Let’s be careful out there

Maybe the greatest television series ever. But do you remember Boccho's attempt to do a series on a baseball team?
   17. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 08:13 PM (#838953)
Maybe the greatest television series ever. But do you remember Boccho's attempt to do a series on a baseball team?

Bay City Blues? Wasn't bad, but I could have dome without the male nudity, if you ask me.

:-0
   18. favre Posted: September 06, 2004 at 08:34 PM (#838977)
1.Ty Cobb
2.John Henry Lloyd
3.Tris Speaker
4.Eddie Collins
5.Joe Williams
6.Cristobal Torriente

I just ranked the four major leaguers in order of career Win Shares.

If you give Lloyd the 5% i9’s discount (with all the difficulties i9’s entails), then he created 1956 career runs. Eddie Collins created 2006 career runs. By this crude measure, Lloyd was comparable to Collins as a hitter; Eddie was a little better at the plate, but Pop was also a Gold Glove shortstop. Intuitively, that seems a good approximation of his value. Williams may deserve to rank higher than Collins or Speaker, but those are two incredible players, and I haven’t seen enough to convince me to move Smokey ahead.

Give the same i9’s discount to Torriente, and he created 1435 runs; Duke Snider created 1436. There’s all sorts of difficulties with that comparison, but I like the analogy: Torriente’s Snider to Cobb’s Mantle and Speaker’s Mays.

7.Lip Pike
8.Jake Beckley

If Torriente was the Duke, then Pike was Dick Allen: outstanding hitter at an important defensive position, fairly short career, underrated by his peers because he was huge pain in the butt.

I understand why Beckley is as welcome to peak voters as the Dixie Chicks would be at the Republican National Convention. But I’m not really a peak voter, and Jake’s a good career pick. He has 316 unadjusted Win Shares, which modified for schedule length would be, what, 330-340 WS? Not a lock, but hardly an embarrassment to the HoM. His WARP3 career score is good (87.1). He had 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. His career grey ink is good, and he has very good counting stats; I know we have to take the 90s level of offense into account, but 2900 hits/1600runs/1500 RBI certainly doesn’t discourage me from putting him high on the ballot. His era is underrepresented as it is, and I can’t imagine inducting another first baseman who played between 1897 and 1915. I’m sold.

9.Stan Coveleski
10.Clark Griffith

I see these two as very comparable players; Coveleski pitched more innings compared to his contemporaries, so I’ve placed him above Griffith.

11.Heinie Groh
12.Tommy Leach
13.Rube Waddell

Leach has 324 career WS. We’ve elected every position player with more career Win Shares except Van Haltren, and Haltren’s WS (344) are distorted by his pitching stint. He played near flawless CF/3B and hit in a low offense era. I’m more and more convinced that he belongs. Groh was an even better player than Leach in his prime, and moves ahead of Tommy on this ballot.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

14.Ned Williamson
15.Hugh Jennings

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better.

16.Pete Browning
17. Cupid Childs
18.Larry Doyle
19. Mickey Welch
20.Spotswood Poles
21.Hugh Duffy
22.George Van Haltren
23.George Burns

I had always thought Hugh Duffy was terribly overrated. However, once I had to explain why I’m not voting for him…well, his career looks like Van Haltren’s, a little shorter, but with a big year and better defense. VH does have 689 innings of league average pitching, but I don’t give him a lot of credit for that, and he slips off my ballot. Mickey Welch’s peripherals keep him off the ballot this year.

24.Jose Mendez
25.Mike Tiernan
26.Bill Monroe
27.Jimmy Ryan
28.Jim McCormick
29.Harry Hooper
30.Roger Bresnahan
   19. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: September 06, 2004 at 08:40 PM (#838980)
Weird - part of me's really interested in seeing which 2 of the top 5 get elected this year, part of me doesn't care because we all know they'll just get in the next few years.

1. Ty Cobb (new). The conventional wisdom's right.

2. Tris Speaker (new). He'd be in fourth except that he has (by far) the most fielding win shares of any outfielder ever.

3. Pop Lloyd (new). Yes many Negro Leaguers played forever, but were any as good as long as this shortstop?

4. Eddie Collins (new). A personal favorite, this class is whacko-nutty deep in new candidates.

5. Smokey Joe Williams (new). Terrific.

6. Crisotbal Torriente (new). Zach Wheat retired at the right time - all 6 are better than him.

7. Jake Beckley (3,2,1,2,3). I'll let others vote for the best players. I'll vote for the best careers.

8. Clark Griffith (6,5,3,3,4). Personal favorite 1890s pitcher. Nice career, nice prime. The median winning percentage of his opponent one of the highest of the pitchers I've checked. Jumps past Welch due to both the overall quality of play in the 1890s.

9. Stan Coveleski (new). Minor 1890s adjustment keeps CG ahead of him. SC had great numbers and he earned them.

10. Mickey Welch (5,4,4,4,5). Thank you retrosheet. Turns out he earned those 300 wins. Offensive support only gave him 3-4 wins. Defensive support, though a little above average, was actually worse the defensive support of all major non-Galvin pitchers in the 1880s. In 1885, against the Cubs, he faced off against John Clarkson 7 times & won every game.

11. Lave Cross (25,23,22,16,6). Weird career. OK for a long time. Great defense, but banal offense. Spent a few years as one of the worst hitting 3Bmen around, but overall he had an OPS+ of 100, which is above average for the 2nd most important glove position. And oh yeah, he's possibly the greatest defensive player ever at third, and he did it forever. Gets some bonus for playing some time at catcher. 16.0 seasons played.

12. George Van Haltren (9,7,7,6,7). Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch. Played 14.2 seasons worth of games (including as pitcher) by my reckonin'.

13. Jimmy Ryan (10,8,8,7,8). GVH without the ability to pitch. Played 14.6 seasons worth of games, by my reckonin'.

14. Ben Taylor (new). Heckuva hitter for quite a while.

15. Cupid Childs (12,10,9,9,9). Looking at him again & I think he's better than the infielders I was putting just above him. The D & OBP keep him above Larry Doyle. 10.5 seasons worth of games by my reckonin'.

Top 10 returners:
16. Heine Groh (10). 11.1 seasons played. Better prime & bat than Leach, and off-sets Leach's career numbers because Groh spent all his time at the more important 3B position.
31. Rube Waddell (26,24,26,25,25). The king of unearned runs - and considering how important his ERA+ is to his candidacy, that really hurts. Entry of Vaughn and Cicotte helps him.
34. Lip Pike (19,17,18,20,28). Stuck in a glut of OFers at the edge of the ballot that could best be described as: "If only they'd been that good for a few more years. . ." By my reckonin', from 1871 onward he played in 7.5 seasons worth of games, so I'll figure he's worth about 11.5-12 seasons worth in his career.
36. Hugh Duffy (27,26,28,27,30). Needs either better rate stats or more games. He's a tweener - in a bad way. Periodic re-evaluation boosts him a little. I reckon him at 12.5 seasons played.
37. Hughie Jennings (42,43,29,28,31). See Beckley comment.
   20. ronw Posted: September 06, 2004 at 08:58 PM (#838989)
Tris Speaker (n/e) -- First player on ballot who is not arguably the best anything on the ballot really.

Really? Not even the best fielding OF on the ballot, let alone all time?

Seriously, its either Speaker or Mays as the best all time fielding OF, by a wide margin. Maybe if Andrew Jones plays twelve (12!) more years at his current fielding level, he can get mentioned some day too. (Of course, Matt's nickname may mean he's partial to Richie Ashburn.)
   21. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 09:17 PM (#839005)
Really? Not even the best fielding OF on the ballot, let alone all time?

Certainly, the greatest AL centerfielder of all-time.
   22. EricC Posted: September 06, 2004 at 09:59 PM (#839019)
1934 ballot. No need to spend all week on this one.

1. Ty Cobb (N)
2. Tris Speaker (N)
3. Eddie Collins (N)

If an inner-circle HoMer is a player who is an all-star and MVP candidate nearly every year for a long career, then there are (at least) three inner-circle newcomers this year. Career Win Shares totals of 722, 630, and 574 provide as good an explanation as any for the ordering.

4. John Henry Lloyd (N)
5. Joe Williams (N)

The first Negro League candidates who I am completely confident about. Would be top-of-the ballot selections most years.

6. Stan Coveleski (N) Perhaps the litmus test of how deep we will go in 1910-1930 era pitchers. While part of me thinks it's unfair that legal spitball pitchers such as Shocker, Coveleski, and Faber do so well in my system, I have to like Coveleski's 3082 IP and 127 ERA+.

7. Cristobal Torriente (N) I would think that he would have to be elected to Cooperstown eventually. His career record looks like a HoMer's.

8. Roger Bresnahan (3) Best catcher of the 00s.

9. Jake Beckley (4) The career man.

10. George "Rube" Waddell (5) 142 ERA+; 3 ERA+ titles; 6 consecutive strikeout titles. Most similar batter is Stan Coveleski.

11. Harry Hooper (6) Longevity, defense, and league strength.

12. Eddie Cicotte (7) 3223 IP; 123 ERA+; 1 ERA+ title, came in second twice to Walter Johnson, and once to Babe Ruth(!).

13. Heinie Groh (8) Great 3B at his peak. Adjustment for NL weakness drops him lower than I would have otherwise rated him.

14. Ray Schalk (12) Quirky(?) selection in my system, but does well in longevity, defense, and league strength. Like most of my selections, does make baseballreality's MLB timeline.

15. George Van Haltren (9) Pitching value and the fact that he spent more time as a centerfielder lifts him above Ryan.

Knocked off: Ryan, Shocker, Pike, Chance, Mendez

Pike, Griffith and Jennings, Childs, and Duffy have all been on my ballot before.

Welch has not. I think that the 1880s are to the HoM what the 1920s-1930s are to the HoF.
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: September 06, 2004 at 10:28 PM (#839044)
1934. The conventional wisdom for the top 5 newbies is (I think) to rank them Cobb-Speaker-Collins-Lloyd-Williams. This week's discussion suggests a couple changes from the conventional wisdom.

1. Ty Cobb (new). I considered dropping him down because of the character issue and the greater difficulty of replacing a middle IF. But no. Cobb was a pain in the du-pah, but the Tigers' struggles after '09 had more to do with a lack of pitching. And he played in as many World Series as Speaker, after all. And other than Speaker, who (like Ruth and Gehrig or Gehrig and Foxx) is an accident of history, who exactly would you replace Cobb with? PHoM 1934.

2. Eddie Collins (new). The positional difference is not enough to move him ahead of Cobb, but it moves him ahead of Speaker. And Collins was a (or maybe 'the") leader on two multi-pennant dynasties, playing in twice as many World Series as Tris. PHoM 1934.

3. Tris Speaker (new). Arguably the second greatest CF of all-time. Third is no shame on this ballot. PHoM 1935.

4. Smokey Joe Williams (new). Anywhere from 330 to 470 MLE wins. Even if closer to 330 than 470, he goes here. (If closer to 470 he moves ahead of Speaker.) PHoM 1935.

5. Pop Lloyd (new). Here's the surprise. A .284 MLE? Shocking. But according to Chris' methods and explanation, sounds about right. And if so, no way he plays 25 years in the bigs. But even if 20 years at .284 and excellent defense, he's a HoMer. PHoM 1936.

6. Hughie Jennings (2). Still the, oh, 4th highest post-NA ML peak. PHoM 1927.

7. Heinie Groh (3). 2nd best 3B we've seen yet. PHoM 1933.

8. Cristobal Torriente (new). Possibly overrated by our group. Not sure he's better than Carey, Heilmann or Roush. Those will be tough choices the next 3 years, though right now I have him pegged as PHoM 1937 ahead of those guys. We'll see.

9. Jose Mendez (5). Not sure he wasn't better than Torriente, not sure he was.

10. Rube Waddell (6). Best of the non-NB pitchers (20th century), but there's a pack of 'em. PHoM 1932.

11. Tommy Bond (11). Best of the non-NB pitchers (19th century). PHoM 1929.

12. Cupid Childs (12). PHoM 1925.

13. Lip Pike (4). My new system hurts him considerably. PHoM 1928.

14. Ed Williamson (10). Those who take Babe Ruth and John McGraw's comments re. Pop Lloyd at face value, take another look at Big Ed! I will be comparing Hughie, Cupid and Ed soon in an effort to settle the eternal question, who should the next 19th century IF in the HoM be? (None of the above is not a choice!) PHoM 1924.

15. Charley Jones (7). Watch for my eval. of selected 19th century "hitters." I've had Lip and Charley at the top of that list forever. Browning is certainly in that class, but in this case none of the above might be a choice. PHoM 1921.

Dropped out: Browning (12), Doyle (13), Monroe (14), D. Moore (15).

16-20. Doyle, Monroe, Browning, Moore, Dunlap.
21-25. Poles, Joss, Leach, McCormick, Duffy.

Required:
Van Haltren--nice peak, nice career, 26th.
Griffith--nice peak, nice career, in the 40s.
Beckley--nice career, no peak, in the 30s.
Bresnahan--nice, nice, nice, 30s.
Welch--ERA+ and WARP do not lie. 40s.

Coveleski--probably should be in top 25, ballot-worthy in a down year.
Ben Taylor--possibly the best 1B available, but soon to be outstripped by a wide margin by at least 3 newbies. Probably won't ever make my ballot.
   24. yest Posted: September 07, 2004 at 12:09 AM (#839240)
1. Ty Cobb (Makes my pHoM this year) in 1919 Ty Cobb led the active major leaguers in career (from baseball reference.com)
372 batting avg.
434 on base percentage
516 slugging percentage
1416 runs
2713 hits
3765 total bases
431 doubles
210 triples
1211 RBIs
765 stolen bases
708 extra base hits
3516 times on base
the only major categories where he didn’t lead the majors in was Hrs (Cravath) and walks (Bush) this looks like something no one else ever accomplished.
by the way personally I still give him 12 batting titles, 4191 hits and a 367 batting avg. (but not on the list)
2. Tris Speaker (Makes my pHoM this year) always a bridesmaid never a bride (But I do have him as the best fielding center fielder ever)
3. Eddie Collins HOPE HE DOSN’T MAKE THE HOM THE YEAR
4. John Henry Lloyd HIM TOO
5. Mickey Welch 15th in innings pitched (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
7. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
8. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
9. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
10. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
11. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
12. Smokey Joe Williams underrated by most, overrated here, he’s no Welch
13. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever
14. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
15. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
16. Lip Pike 465 slugging percentage (made my personal HoM in 1910)
17. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
18. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
19. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
20. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
21. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
22. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
explanation for players of the ballot
Cristobal Torriente see his thread for an explanation
Heinie Groh no third base bonus
Hughie Jennings would be higher if he had led his league in something important
   25. Patrick W Posted: September 07, 2004 at 12:17 AM (#839261)
Do you realize that the 5th best player on this ballot could have a higher % Score in 1936 than the 4 players above him when they are elected? Cobb will probably prevent this, but the 5th best player here should be in ‘elect me’ spots on all ballots 2 years from now, and maybe above Pete on many. Just trying to present some intrigue into these proceedings

1. Ty Cobb (n/a), Det. (A), CF / LF (’05-’28) (1934) – As jaw-dropping as the contenders on this ballot are, the immortals truly shine when compared to the players just below that status.
2. Tris Speaker (n/a), Bost. - Clev. (A), CF (’07-’28) (1934) – I’ll let someone else pick the hat – made his name with Boston, the numbers favor Cleveland.
3. Eddie Collins (n/a), Phila. - Chic. (A), 2B (’06-’28) – I’ll let someone else pick the hat – made his name with Philly, the numbers favor Chicago.
4. Smokey Joe Williams (n/a), NY (--), SP (’10-’32) – His numbers are stupid good, mostly based on the IP. Cy Young would be 4th on this ballot FWIW, Big Train 2nd.
5. Pop Lloyd (n/a), Phi – NY – Chic – Bkn – Columb - NY again (--), SS (’06-’31) – I’ll let someone else pick the ha….. – If somebody starts arguing with you that Hall of Famers don’t stay with one team like they used to, point them towards the ’34 ballot thread.
6. Cristobal Torriente (n/a), Chic. (--), CF (’13-’28) – Only 106.8 est. W3 based off the MLE’s.
7. George Van Haltren (3), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – A case can be made for Van Haltren over Wheat. Mostly along the lines of reducing timelines & ignoring W3 PRAR, but it’s a case I could be persuaded by. I’m going back to adjusted WS to break the tie with Ryan.
8. Jimmy Ryan (4), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Still underrated by the group.
9. Harry Hooper (5), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
10. Fielder Jones (6), Chic.(A), CF / RF (’96-’08) (1930) – Criminally underrated here. OPS+ isn’t everything folks…
11. Ben Taylor (n/a), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) – Worried he’ll be forgotten because of a group wariness on injecting too much new blood in one year. Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
12. Stan Coveleski (n/a), Clev (A), SP (’16-’28) – I’d recommend to anyone here checking out the minor league ballpark named after him in South Bend, IN.
13. Jake Beckley (7), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Solid numbers forever.
14. Rube Waddell (8), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – Tied at the hip to Foster, so the new WARP helps them both to the top of the pitcher glut.
15. Heinie Groh (9), Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) – He was #9 last year, and I haven’t reconsidered!!!!!!!!!

Since I fully expect to elect Urban Shocker (#16) into my PHOM, I’m thinking this ballot is better than any previous one.

Lip Pike – Too many other worthies have arrived (and will continue to) and rank ahead of him. Doesn’t look likely that he’ll ever make it to the ballot.
Clark Griffith – ‘New Blood’ Casualty.
Hughie Jennings – Did ya notice how Big Train’s peak puts Jennings to shame?
Mickey Welch – I think McCormick is 1) better than Welch, & 2) slotted on the election results pretty close to where I would place him (43rd) if I ranked them out that far.


Pike, Griffith, Jennings, Fine, Howard, Howard & Welch are in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   26. Adam Schafer Posted: September 07, 2004 at 12:41 AM (#839309)
Boy, if you like Doak, you must love Willis (who kicks Doak's butt all over the place ERA+ and innings-wise)! :-)

I do like Willis...He's coming in at #29 on my ballot. Willis definately isn't forgotten :)


26. Doak
27. Browning
28. Leach
29. Willis
30. Cravath
   27. jhwinfrey Posted: September 07, 2004 at 01:54 AM (#839479)
I for one, take a great deal of interest in this election--being a first-ballot HoMer in 1934 will carry quite a bit more prestige than in the usual 1 or 2 "no-brainer" candidate years. I'm also curious to see which 3 or 4 holdovers stay in the top 10.

My PHoM inductees are Ty Cobb and Pop Lloyd.

1934 Ballot
1. Ty Cobb (ne)--Four thousand, one hundred, and eighty nine. Wow.
2. Pop Lloyd (ne)--26 seasons and 8 MVP years. I'm inclined to think he was just as good as the Flying Dutchman.
3. Eddie Collins (ne)--The all time sacrifice hits king.
4. Smokey Joe Williams (ne)--As many no-hitters as five and a half Nolan Ryans.
5. Tris Speaker (ne)--It's almost a crime to rank someone this low who has 792 career doubles.
6. Cristobal Torriente (ne)--Definitely an elite player.
7. Mickey Welch (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2)--All those ones look a bit silly with all of these "real" candidates around this year. But Welch is the best of the rest.
8. Jake Beckley (6, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4)--Best first baseman on the ballot, and a very consistent hitter.
9. Rube Waddell(5, 8, 8, 6, 5, 4, 5, 6)--No one had more K's in the first decade of the 20th century.
10. Clark Griffith (11, 8, 5)--46 Wins Above Team. That's antihistamine numbers.
11. Ben Taylor (ne)--I believe he's closer to Beckley than he is to Konetchy.
12. Bill Monroe (15, nr, 14, 12, 11, 6, 7, 7)--Leads the second tier of middle infielders.
13. Jose Mendez (4, 8)--Still looks very similar to Rube Foster.
14. Lip Pike (13, 14, 12, 10, 8, 8, 9, 9)--I'd like to see a few more 19th century stars inducted.
15. Cupid Childs(13, 15, 14)--A decade of dominance keeps him from slipping off the ballot.

Off-ballot:
16. Roger Bresnahan (9, 11, 9, 7, 6, 7, 10, 10)
In/Out Line
17. George Van Haltren (14, 15, 13, 13, 12, 10, 11, 11)
18. Spotswood Poles (11, 9, 9, 12, 12)
19. Bruce Petway (14, 12, 14, 13)
20. Jim McCormick (15, nr, 13, 15)
21. Tommy Leach
22. Lave Cross
23. Stan Coveleski--After some adjustments, this is where he rates for me.
24. Jules Thomas--I feel he's closer to Poles than he is to Shively
25. Addie Joss
26. Heinie Groh--Aye yi yi. I've been comparing him to Childs, Doyle, Cross, and Leach, and this is where he ranks. Lambast away.
31. Jimmy Ryan--The gap between him and GVH is beginning to grow, not through any fault of Ryan's but due to the steady increase of "very good" candidates.
32. Hugh Duffy--A .400 hitter who led the NL of the 1890's in HR and RBI. But quite a few mediocre seasons, too.
58. Hughie Jennings--Just not my kind of player. His peak isn't high enough to offset his brevity.

Ok, now that '34's out of the way, bring on the Dizzy Dismukes and Bernardo Baro discussions!
   28. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 07, 2004 at 02:31 AM (#839572)
1934 BALLOT
1) Ty Cobb: Best hitter ever before Ruth comes on the scene. Led the AL in OPS+ 9 years in a row from 1907-1915. Career OPS+ of 167. Was even good in the field (B+ in WS; 104 Rate in CF).
2) Tris Speaker: 16 times in the AL’s top5 in OPS+ and he was a gold glove caliber CF the whole time. His advantage with the glove brings him pretty close to Cobb, but not close enough.
3) Eddie Collins: Put up all-star quality seasons for 20 years. Career OPS+ of 143. BP rate at 2B of 107 is equal to Speaker’s in CF, but WS only ranks Collins as a B-. WARP3 and WS both have him the slightest bit behind Speaker, so I’ve placed him at #3.
4) Smokey Joe Williams: 2nd best Negro League pitcher ever—best ever at this point. If he doesn’t make it this year he should be in next year. It goes without saying, but this top 5 is something else.
5) Pop Lloyd: Obviously tremendously talented. I guess I’m ranking him conservatively because just how great he was is hard to pin down. I wouldn’t put him above Cobb, but I could easily see him ranked above the other 3 top guys.
6) Lip Pike: Hard to evaluate, but I’m going to try to stay consistent—I’ve had him high, so far, and I haven’t seen anything that’s convinced me to change my mind. Impressive 155 OPS+. A dominant player over a somewhat brief time. I don't think he is too far behind his contemporaries that are already in the HoM.
7) Stan Covaleski: Debuts on the ballot just ahead of Waddell—-better WARP3 and same DERA as Rube. Win Shares has them even closer, but overall I think Stanislaus wins out. Horrible hitter, but Waddell wasn’t that great either. 2nd best AL pitcher of the late-teens, behind Walter Johnson, ahead of Cicotte.
8) Rube Waddell:
Definition of a dominating pitcher. Strikeout king of the '00s. Slight edge in career length puts him higher than Joss for me. Practically tied with Covaleski.
9) Addie Joss:
8 excellent seasons in a row. Clearly one of the top pitchers of the ’00s. 150 and 213 PRAA (all-time) in his top 3 and top 5 seasons is better than any other eligible pitcher.
10) Pete Browning:
One of the few remaining outstanding hitters from the 19th Century. His 30.81 WS/162 games is highest among returning eligible hitters with over 1000 games played.
11) Cristobal Torriente: “Greatest Cuban home-run hitter in baseball history” according to Riley’s Encyclopedia. A great player whose skill set compares well with Roberto Clemente. However, he’s still not in the class of Lloyd and Williams. I think he’s a star closer to the Ben Taylor level—that’s why I have them ranked together. I’m starting off ranking him conservatively at #11, which, on this ballot, is not too shabby.
12) Ben Taylor:
Best Sprundel ever. Slight bonus for his pitching. Best Negro League 1st baseman of his time. 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman ever. I know that’s a debatable statement but I think he was a better all-around player than Suttles and Taylor's stats are dampened by his era. He deserves to be in the HoM eventually. Comparable to Beckley and Konetchy in that he was good for a long time, but I think he was more of a standout than either of them. The dearth of stats for his era doesn’t help his argument, but I’m convinced of his excellence anyhow.
13) Hughie Jennings:
He averaged more WS/Inning on defense than any other eligible player—his shorter career probably helps make that the case (Tinker is not far behind him), but it is still quite impressive. Gives up some ground this year to the exceptional Negro Leaguers who have a bit more career to lean on.
14) Roger Bresnahan: Flip-flopped him with Jennings last year. Best catcher out there. I’m still contemplating moving him up significantly because catcher is such an underrepresented position.
15) Jose Mendez:
Great pitcher. Not quite on Smokey Joe’s level. There is a pretty big gap between Mendez and the next group of pitchers that starts with Griffith at #21.
   29. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 07, 2004 at 02:32 AM (#839576)
Dropped off my ballot:
16) Charley Jones: 149 OPS+ .321 EQA 30.17 WS per 162g…Even with no credit for missed time he was the cream of the crop—not far behind Pike and Browning for best remaining player from ’70s & ’80s.

17) Dobie Moore: It’s always hard to gauge the reputations of Negro League stars, but Dobie appears to have been a dominator for a long enough time before he got shot that I think he is worthy of the Hall.

18) Fred Dunlap: Pretty good hitter for a second baseman (.307 EQA/ 133 OPS+) and BP card is high on his defense (Rate/Rate2 of 113/107 at 2B). Better than Childs in WARP3/162g (10.6 vs. 8.3), WS/162g (27.7 vs. 26.5), and WS defense (A- vs. B+).

19) Heinie Groh: Replaced John McGraw as my highest rated 3B. Outstanding on defense: 111 Rate according to BP and an A- by WS. Had an amazing run from 1916-1919 where he was among the NL’s top 10 in adjusted OPS 4 times (second twice). Extended peak from ’15-’20 where he averaged just over 28 WS and 9 WARP3 per season. He should work his way back onto my ballot soon.

20) Gavvy Cravath: Great player with lots of question marks. I’ve giving him credit for excellent minor league seasons. Beginning of players that I think are borderline HoMers.

21) Clark Griffith: Stays at the top of the group of similar pitchers--just above Cicotte and Willis. I like it that he had the most consistent and prolonged peak ('94-'01), the others were more up and down. He is tops among that group in all-time PRAA for his career (159) and his top 5 seasons (163). It may be some time before he creeps back into the lower end of my ballot.

Other returning top 10 off ballot:

23) Cupid Childs: Of the remaining white 2nd basemen, I still prefer Dunlap. Cupid was getting closer to the 15th slot before he was pushed down this year by the excellent newcomers.

29) Hugh Duffy: Second among the remaining outfielders, behind Fielder Jones by a hair. I don’t foresee him getting close to my ballot any time soon.

39) George Van Haltren: He’s definitely in the top half of the cluster of OFs who remain off my ballot. I haven’t been convinced that he should really be separated from most of the rest of the pack. The abundance of OFs who seem to be of about the same quality as GVH is evidence that none of them are quite outstanding enough to be in the HoM.

55) Mickey Welch: Prospectus’ timelining is pretty harsh on him. I may be underrating pitchers of that era, but I can’t see him getting close to my ballot.

56) Jake Beckley: In spite of long career, lower WARP3 than most of the OF swarm (Leach, Hooper, GVH, Ryan, F. Jones, among others). 5-year peak by WARP3 is relatively low, too, at 32.
   30. Rob_Wood Posted: September 07, 2004 at 03:29 AM (#839731)
My 1934 ballot:

1. Ty Cobb -- one of greatest players ever
2. Tris Speaker -- overshadowed by Cobb
3. Eddie Collins -- he and Speaker are very close
4. Pop Lloyd -- one of all time greats too
5. Smokey Joe Williams -- ditto
6. Cristobal Torriente -- slight gap after SJW
7. Jake Beckley -- big drop but I still like Jake
8. Larry Doyle -- very good second baseman
9. Rube Waddell -- luv those strikeouts
10. Addie Joss -- luv that WHIP
11. Lip Pike -- great hitter in his era
12. Stan Coveleski -- borderline HOF/HOMer
13. Urban Shocker -- just as good as Coveleski
14. Heinie Groh -- I overlooked Groh last ballot
15. Cupid Childs -- last on strongest ballot ever

I wonder how many from this ballot will eventually make the HOM!
   31. andrew siegel Posted: September 07, 2004 at 04:10 AM (#839902)
A good week to get some real work done. With apologies for the short form ballot:

(1) Ty Cobb (new)--Offensive gap too much for Collins to overcome.
(2) Eddie Collins (new)--By a nose over Tris; CF really no less valuable than 2B, but EC's durability rarer at his position.
(3) Tris Speaker (new)--No negatives.
(4) Lloyd (new)--Deducting for the years he hung on, ARod with a 20 year career.
(5) Smokey Joe Williams (new)--So maybe he's Kid Nichols or Bob Feller instead of Walter Johnson or Pete Alexander.
(6) Cristobal Torriente (new)--Based as much on reputation as analysis; at the top of the 1937 to do list.
(7) Cupid Childs (3rd)--Great bat, good glove, peak, longevity for his time and position, what am I missing?
(8) George Van Haltren (4th)--Did everything well for a long time.
(9) Hughie Jennings (5th)--Etc.
(10) Heinie Groh (6th)--Getting his due.
(11) Stan Coveleski (new)--Every system I use has him as HoM-worthy; still need to sort out where he ranks among his contemporaries.
(12) Frank Chance (7th)--Big stepdown in quality; closer to 100th place than to 5th.
(13) Hugh Duffy (8th)-Have been studying his WS rates and can't find a systematic flaw; giving them full credence would have him 7th or 8th.
(14) Lip Pike (9th)--19th century Dick Allen hanging in there.
(15) Jake Beckley (10th)--Would rather give his 6 points to a personal favorite, but can't ignore him.

Of the other strong returnees, Ryan and Bresnahan are the next two on; Welch (who reminds me of Jack Morris, btw) and Griffith (surprisingly low IP totals for time) are still in the discussion; and Waddell is a non-starter for me (his arm was not worth the trouble).

Taylor might make my ballot eventually; he's closer to Beckley than to Konetchy.
   32. OCF Posted: September 07, 2004 at 04:56 AM (#840154)
20 votes cast is way too early to say anything, but this is such a good ballot I can't resist.

Out of 100 available 1-5 votes so far, 99 have gone to the same 5 candidates.

If the election were to end now, consensus scores would range from +15 to +29. They'll go down from that, but not that far down.

I know who's going to finish 6th. When have we ever been able to say that with any confidence?
   33. Jeff M Posted: September 07, 2004 at 05:06 AM (#840208)
1934 Ballot

1. Cobb, Ty – The best player so far.

2. Speaker, Tris – Third best player so far, IMO, behind Cobb and Wagner.

3. Collins, Eddie – The sixth best player so far, IMO, behind Cobb, Wagner, Speaker, Lajoie and Walter Johnson

4. Lloyd, Pop – The best Negro League player we’ve seen so far. I used the I9 numbers with a modest discount – since the numbers are uncertain and the competition less proven -- and he comes up shy of Collins. Without question a HoMer.

5. Williams, Smoky Joe – I’ve got him at about 400 WS, which is a great career number, but is spread out over 23 years, which gives him only a modest peak. Definitely the best pitcher on the ballot and definitely a HoMer.

6. Torriente, Cristobel -- I’ve got him around 380 WS (using Puckett as a defensive comp), putting him shy of Smoky Joe, which I think is about right. I think he belongs in the HoM.

7. Coveleski, Stan – Negatively affected by not pitching as long as some of the other pitchers under consideration, so his career numbers are not as impressive. Every other player who scored as high in my system has been elected.

8. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

9. Groh, Heinie – Excellent fielder with a high extended peak. Would fare better on my ballot if he played a bit longer and had some more grey or black ink. But still damned good.

10. Monroe, Bill -- Alleged comp is Jimmy Collins. He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

11. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM…but Groh is more deserving.

12. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. He hit about as well as McVey, with power, but with a smaller WS peak and fewer WS per 162 games. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

13. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

14. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

15. Bresnahan, Roger -- In my system he was quite a bit better as a hitter than Charlie Bennett, though certainly not as good defensively (and not a full-time catcher). If you stack Bresnahan's WS and WARP1 numbers against the catchers actually elected to the HoF, he looks very solid. But then again, he wasn’t a full-time catcher.

Required Disclosures:

Pike, Lip – Gut tells me he doesn’t quite belong. I’ve explained aplenty, so I won’t say more here. He’s #34 in my system, behind Urban Shocker and ahead of Hughie Jennings. Has a real chance of election, even though less than half of us think he’s top 10.

Van Haltren, George – Where’s the greatness? Never the best player in the league and never a genuine All-Star. Managed to crack the top 10 in AdjOPS+ only three times in his career, and two of those were at #10 (with the other at #7). Virtually no black ink; poor grey ink. He’s #32 in my system, tied with Urban Shocker. Has a real chance at election, even though only 44% of the electorate thinks he’s top 10.

Beckley, Jake – Usually on the ballot but drops off with the outstanding new class. All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in black ink and Keltner tests. He’s #19 in my system, behind Tommy Leach and ahead of Tony Mullane.

Jennings, Hughie – Career is just too short. Also, when I reduced the WARP fielding ratings to get away from the low replacement value used by BP, he plummeted. He’s #35 in my system, behind Lip Pike and ahead of Charlie Buffinton.

Waddell, Rube – Usually on the ballot. Comparable to Griffith, but win totals are far less impressive. Can't see putting him ahead of Griffith, unless you overvalue strikeouts. He’s #16 in my system, behind Roger Bresnahan and ahead of Bobby Veach.

Welch, Mickey – Just won’t go away. Fares poorly in WARP1 and Pennants Added (using WS). I can’t get past how unimpressive his ERA numbers are, especially since BP indicates he got good defensive support. He’s #22 in my system, behind George Burns and ahead of Spotswood Poles.
   34. Rusty Priske Posted: September 07, 2004 at 12:32 PM (#840344)
PHoM: Cobb & Lloyd

1. Ty Cobb (new) PHoM 1834

Even though one through 5 (and 6) all deserve top billing, Cobb still stands out.

2. Pop Lloyd (new) PHoM 1934
3. Tris Speaker (new)
4. Smokey Joe Williams (new)
5. Eddie Collins (new)

After Lloyd, the other three could shake out any way. I chose this way.

6. George Van Haltren (3,1,1) PHoM 1912

Missed his chance and a deserving HoMer will fade away.

7. Jake Beckley (4,5,3) PHoM 1913

It is amazing how top candidates become also-rans in a year like this.

8. Mickey Welch (5,4,4) PHoM 1929
9. Lip Pike (6,6,6)
10. Tommy Leach (7,8,9) PHoM 1921
11. Jimmy Ryan (8,7,8) PHoM 1914

All deserve spots eventually.

12. Cristobel Torriente (new)

Overshadowed but still great.

13. Hugh Duffy (9,11,11) PHoM 1930
14. Harry Hooper (10,10,5) PHoM 1931
15. Heinie Groh (x,x,x)

Batter than I thought, but not a HoMer yet.
   35. PhillyBooster Posted: September 07, 2004 at 01:58 PM (#840403)
Matt's nickname may mean he's partial to Richie Ashburn.

Nothing wrong with Whitey, but the Phils are my current allegiance (combined with my governmental job). In the era in question, I was raised an Orioles fan. So, I'm more likely to be "boosting" the cases of everyone from Gus Triandos to Luis Aparicio to Ken Singleton before I start leading the Ashburn bandwagon.

Meanwhile, I think the clear concern for this election is Chris Cobb's obviously nepotistic ballot.
   36. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 07, 2004 at 02:03 PM (#840408)
Following up on OCF's ruminations:

As of right now, there are over twenty players who were on last "year's" ballot who have not popped up yet on this one.
   37. Paul Wendt Posted: September 07, 2004 at 02:18 PM (#840420)
Maybe if Andrew Jones plays twelve (12!) more years at his current fielding level, he can get mentioned some day too.

Bill James has already named Andruw Jones, on a new authors panel preliminary to SABR33 last year. (James and the new BJHBA were overshadowed by Michael Lewis and Moneyball.)

The conventional wisdom for the top 5 newbies is (I think) to rank them Cobb-Speaker-Collins-Lloyd-Williams.

There isn't any conventional wisdom yet, and it doesn't appear that a convention will be newly formed here.

Ed Williamson (10). Those who take Babe Ruth and John McGraw's comments re. Pop Lloyd at face value, take another look at Big Ed! I will be comparing Hughie, Cupid and Ed soon in an effort to settle the eternal question, who should the next 19th century IF in the HoM be? (None of the above is not a choice!) PHoM 1924.

Williamson is one of several 19Cers sometimes called the best of all time while active. His ability to play exceptionally well at short and third was much admired. So was the pop in his bat.
   38. PhillyBooster Posted: September 07, 2004 at 02:20 PM (#840421)
OCF:

I know who's going to finish 6th. When have we ever been able to say that with any confidence?


Yes, but there's a very close three-way race for second, so it's not all cut-and-dried quite yet.
   39. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 07, 2004 at 02:21 PM (#840422)
1934, a conglomeration of talent not to be seen again until the Beatles make their first record about 30 years later. Or maybe until the Traveling Wilburys get together….

1. Ty Cobb (x): As the most dominant player of his time, Cobb merits the first slot on this loaded ballot.

2. Tris Speaker (x): Speaker’s big peak years give him the edge on Williams and Collins.

3. Eddie Collins (x)
4. Smokey Joe Williams (x): I have Collins and Williams in a dead heat, but because Collins’s career is more clearly documented and less reliant on guesswork on my end, I give him the slightest edge. Another argument for Collins over Williams might be that he is very clearly one of the top three persons at his position, all-time, and, in my opinion, the best 2B we’ve seen, whereas Williams isn’t the best P we’ve seen and probably isn’t one of the best three at his position because Johnson, Young, Paige, Grove, and Clemens (and maybe Seaver and Spahn?) probably all have better arguments. Williams, of course, has more competition at his position, so maybe that’s an unfair way to look at it, but when you’re looking for tie-breakers in a closely-bundled ballot….

5. John Henry Lloyd (x): I don’t believe he was as good as Wagner, in particular because he lacks Hans’s giant peak. In a way you could make the argument that Wagner is to A-Rod as Lloyd is to Ripken. But el Cuchara is shortstop numero uno in the teens. He’s only a hair behind Williams and Collins, and only because his peak is a shade lower than theirs. He played forever, and he was highly effective for most of that time. On virtually any other ballot, he’s in an elect-me slot.

6. Cristobal Torriente (x): Although an obvious number six on this ballot, that’s kind of like saying that, to continue on an earlier theme, that Beatle George was the third most talented guy in the group. Torriente was a stud with a nice high peak, a reasonably long career full of productive seasons, and played an up-the-middle position to boot. To my mind he’s very clearly better than anyone in the OF glut, unless you discount his league environment by approximately 15% or more. That Torriente doesn’t have a plaque in C-town is truly bogus.

7. George Van Haltren (3, pHOM 1932): Nice, long career helped him generate plenty of value, but flat peak keeps him out of the top two spots. That said, he’s not as flat in peak as the likes of Beckley.

8. Spotswood Poles (4): Poles seems like another member of the Van Ryanffy family, but I prefer him to all but GVH in the group. I do give him credit for missing the 1918 season.

9. Cupid Childs (5): Best second baseman of 1890s, peak not as high as Jennings, but he had a career, not just a peak like Hughie.

10. Hughie Jennings (6): His huge peak, the best among the returning position players, goes a long way to establishing value, and winning five pennants. But being awesome for five years doesn’t mean as much when coupled to a near total lack of surrounding value.

11. Bobby Veach (7): Nice peak/prime player, but now that his NB contemporaries have come due, he’ll quickly start sliding downward. As someone said earlier, being second-tier in a league with Cobb, Crawford, Speaker, Ruth, Collins, ain’t something to sneeze at.

12. Heinie Groh (8): His five year peak is sweet, but it’s not as nearly as high as Jennings’s. I also found that his prime/extended prime didn’t offer as much as Veach’s did. Groh did play a more demanding defensive position when it was even more demanding than today, and from all accounts seems to be a brilliant defender, so it’s possible that I’m underrating him a bit, which means it’s possible he could move northward on my ballot as we compare him against future third base eligibles.

13. Stan Covaleski (x): I’m freeloading off the great work of everyone on the ballot discussion thread. Originally I had Stan off the ballot entirely in the Waddell area of my consideration set, but the case made for him elevated him enough above his predecessors that he’s jumped on board the ballot.

14. Bill Monroe (9): Working with the translations, he comes out as having the best career value among eligible non-Collins second basemen, though less peak/prime value than Childs. I continue to waiver over Monroe, because of the sketchy information available about his career. Sigh.

15. Jimmy Ryan (10): I prefer GVH, SP, and BV. Thus begins Ryan’s probable ultimate slide off my ballot. Perhaps he’ll see the light of day again around 1960 or 1990.

(to be continued)
   40. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 07, 2004 at 02:21 PM (#840423)
part 2...

Sliding off my ballot in deference to new candidates.
Jose Mendez (11): I love the big peak, it gives his profile enough oomph to outrank Griffith when combined with some good shoulder years that militate against the dead-arm period.

Clark Griffith (12): The sly old Fox ends up ahead of other peak/prime guys without heavy career value. Griffith benefits, in my view, from better strength of competition than his predecessors like Jim McCormick, but also surpasses successors like Waddell when career, peak, and prime are all taken into consideration.

Duffy (13): Duffy concentrates a little more of his value into a couple peak years than the other members of his “family” but didn’t play quite as long. The peaks just weren’t high enough, however, to rise above the others.

Jack Fournier (14): Initially I had Fournier off the ballot, but when I credited him for missing his peak seasons due to what appears to be either organizational indifference or organizational incompetence it just nudged him on. That said, it’s not enough for him to zoom up the ranks, just enough to get onto the bottom of the ballot.

Pete Browning (15): Flatter career trend line than Jennings, with slightly more career value. But although he was clearly a great hitter, I’ve come down on the side that says the 1880s were an easier time to dominate than subsequent decades/generations. As such, he continues to slide down my ballot and will, undoubtedly slide off next year and perhaps permanently if better borderline candidates emerge.

Returning top-tens I didn’t vote for:
Lip Pike: Third best player of the 1860s–70s is, to my mind, a persuasive argument for Lipman. On the other hand, I’m not willing to put him anywhere near an elect-me spot without Pearce’s combination of performance AND visionary status. New candidates push him off.

Jake Beckley: Becks Lite’s career length and totals ARE impressive, but the total lack of peak makes him seem like a background contributor, not a HOMer.

Rube Waddell (x): I see three pitching a clusters that looks like this:
Willis
Cooper
Welch
Mullane

Waddell
Cicotte
McCormick
Shocker

Shawkey
Adams
Vaughn

The first group floats in the ether just off my ballot, while the second group comes in around ten places behind the first, and finally, the third another ten or fifteen behind the second. I like Covaleski and Griffith better than any of these fellows.
   41. Jim Sp Posted: September 07, 2004 at 05:35 PM (#840752)
1)Cobb--Top 5 on this ballot are all obviously going in, I don’t have much to add. I have Cobb #2 behind Ruth on my alltime list.
2)Speaker--#11 alltime on my list.
3)Collins--#13 alltime.
4)Lloyd--No disrespect to Lloyd, just unbelievable competition on this ballot.
5)Smokey Joe Williams--Hard to believe I have him at #5.
6) Torriente --Big gap between Williams and Torriente, but still very well qualified.
7)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
8)Groh--I guess where you put him depends on how much you like third basemen. Compares pretty well with Collins, only Baker is clearly better among 3B.
9)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production.
10)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
11)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
12)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
13)Bresnahan--Best hitting year was as a CF, not a C, so that hurts him a bit.
14)Coveleski--I expect he will be waiting on the bubble for a while.
15)Griffith—Comp is Marichal, plus he could hit.

Lip Pike-- Nothing to say that hasn’t already been repeated for 30 years. I think there are at least 15 players on the ballot more worthy of enshrinement than Pike.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Hugh Duffy—Good hitter, great fielder. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan are even in my estimation, but off the ballot.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Childs--Steep discount for his domination of the 1890 AA, otherwise he would be higher. Has been on my ballot several times, right now he’s just off the edge.
Welch— Weird. Instead of explaining why I have him on my ballot, now I have to explain why he is off. I would have taken him instead of Galvin or Caruthers, but now that the ballot has some strength he’s fallen off the edge of my ballot.
   42. Dolf Lucky Posted: September 07, 2004 at 06:40 PM (#840874)
1 (-)Ty Cobb--"4191" was a number seared into my childhood memory. Now it turns out that it was really 4189? Eric Show must feel better. Anyways, when you've got the best career and the best peak on a stacked board, you waltz into the #1 slot. I was thinking the other day that Ty Cobb was like the bat control of Ichiro mixed with the speed of Juan Pierre. And the gap to gap power of...Paul Molitor or Edgar Martinez. Must have been a sick athlete. 9 straight years leading league in OPS+. 13 straight years in the top two.

2 (-)Eddie Collins--After all the superlatives for Cobb, the #2 pick isn't all that far behind, especially with a small positional adjustment. 14 times in the top 5 in his league in on-base pct.

3 (-)John Henry Lloyd--Slotted Lloyd here, because I think the gap between Collins and Speaker is larger than the gap between Cobb and Collins. At some point, you just have to rest in the knowledge that you won't get the order completely right, but you won't be that wrong either.

4 (-)Tris Speaker--As others have mentioned, most years he would be at the top, and it really seems unfair, but a stacked list is a stacked list. Is it any wonder that the Hall of Fame opened when it did?

5 (-)Cristobal Torriente--I'm not saying anything new by mentioning that Torriente was good, but not quite at the Cobb/Speaker level. However, even the most conservative estimates would put this guy at roughly Zack Wheat's level, who easily made it in last year. I'm not saying that Torriente should go in 1st ballot, but I do think he's being underrated by some.

6 (-)Smokey Joe Williams--As for Williams, I realize that I'm in danger of underrating him, but based somewhat on a gut feeling, and somewhat on the basis that the overwhelming majority of Negro League "legends" were hitters, I'm putting in a conservative first ballot for Smokey Joe. I will revisit, but in the long run, it doesn't really matter.

7 (2)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

8 (-)Stan Coveleski--Head-to-head, Coveleski clearly ranks ahead of Cicotte, who I like. Much closer to Waddell, who stays ahead partly on the basis of all those shiny strikeouts…

9 (3)Heinie Groh--At his peak, he was the cornerstone of a championship team. His career numbers are solid, placing him at least the equal of Jimmy Collins, but shy of Frank Baker.

10 (4)Donie Bush--Has the "Anyone but Bush" crowd completely taken over this site?...

11 (5)Roger Bresnahan--The biggest boost from the new WARP scores. The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing). My apologies to the Duke of Tralee for not catching on quicker.

12 (7)Eddie Cicotte--Career and peak numbers synch up fairly closely to Waddell, but Cicotte lacked the dominance.

13 (6)Duke Farrell--Catchers apparently got the largest WARP boost. Much of Farrell's case comes from the strength of his 1891 season.

14 (8)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

15 (15)George Burns--Could have easily been Veach or Jennings. Could very well change for next year.

Dropping out: Del Pratt, Larry Doyle, Hugh Duffy, Hughie Jennings, Bobby Veach.

Top 10 ommissions:
Clark Griffith and Hughie Jennings are close, and have been on my ballot recently. Numbers game with all the great newbies forced them out this year.
Lip Pike played too long ago and raises too many level of competition questions for me to rank him favorably against modern candidates.
George VanHaltren and Jake Beckley lack enough peak to make it on to my ballot. Actually, GVH has made my ballot as recently as 1931, but new WARP scores were particularly damning for him.
Mickey Welch used to be a ballot regular of mine, but similar to Pike, the modern guys just have too much going for them for me to go back to Welch again.
   43. andrew siegel Posted: September 07, 2004 at 07:12 PM (#840926)
#1 discussion threads NOT to start:

"Donnie Bush is better qualified for the HoM than George W. Bush is for the Presidency. Discuss."
   44. PhillyBooster Posted: September 07, 2004 at 07:18 PM (#840937)
How about, "Donnie Bush is better qualified for the Presidency that George W. Bush"?
   45. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 07, 2004 at 07:37 PM (#840965)
How about we try avoiding a political flame war that nobody is going to win and will change exactly zero minds, guys?

Sheesh! :-)
   46. Daryn Posted: September 07, 2004 at 07:44 PM (#840981)
Boring three years ahead. Wake me up in mid-October.

5 pitchers, 5 blackballers, 3 all-time greats, a catcher, Pike, Leach and Beckley makes 15.

1. Cobb – Led the league in adjusted OPS 11 times and is pretty much the all time leader (hitting division) in HOF Standards (Ink Tests/Standards/Monitor). He’d make my top 5 all time. None of the other candidates this year would.

2. Lloyd -- I think 600 Win Shares is about right. He could be below Speaker, but I think there is more of a chance he compares to Cobb and Ruth (inner-inner circle).

3. Williams – I believe he would have had 350+ wins in the majors, and that puts him here.

4. Collins – Collins over Speaker was my toughest choice. It is really all about the position, plus he did do well in the MVP voting. I find it difficult to try and parse it when it doesn’t matter.

5. Speaker – ridiculously qualified first ballot HoMer. I like the 3500 hits. Would have been #1 in about 30 of the ballots we’ve done so far.

6. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data is helping Welch – those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe.

7. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Baseballreality.com has him as the best first baseman in baseball for a long time. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (soon to be HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

8. Cristobal Torriente – nice ball player – maybe a little worse than Clemente will be.

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor.

10. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

11. Lip Pike – 4 monster seasons, 4 more not too bad, plus 4 undocumented.

12. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.

13. Bill Munroe – I think he was pretty good. Any blackball player that is even talked about as among the best 70 years later is pretty good. I’ll take McGraw’s word for it.

14. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected.

15. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right.

The rest

16. Cupid Childs – nice obp.

17. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

18. Heinie Groh – hard for me to analyze – I know he is not better than Leach in my mind and he is definitely better than the rest of the thirdbasemen. He could go up or down.

19. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

20 or 21. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

20 or 21. Spotswood Poles – Van Haltren seems like a good comp.

22. Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs.

23. Hugh Duffy – 10 strong seasons, good black ink.

24 and 25. Veach and Hooper – I don’t think they will make my ballot. But if one of them does I may defer to Hooper’s 321 Win Shares and 2500 hits.

26. Stan coveleski – I can’t really see a huge difference between Waddell (10) and Shocker (mid-30s). So Coveleski is somewhere in between.

27. Ben Taylor – Starting him low. I have him somewhere between here and Monroe.

28. Jennings – he may get more consideration from me a few decades from now, when Koufax starts to exist. But he was no Koufax.

29. Dobie Moore – about here; also could be as high as Monroe – I don’t have a very good handle on the second tier blackballers.

30. Gavvy Cravath – I’m not sure how to treat his non-ML time, but I do think one of the purposes of the HoM is to take into account great achievers outside the majors. Baker Bowl issues keep him here.

31. Konetchy – 287 Win Shares, but nothing really impressive on his resume, particularly for a firstbaseman. Belongs in the Hall of the Very Good.

32. Larry Doyle – not a bad hitter for a second baseman and it wasn’t a particularly strong decade for NL second sackers.

33-39. McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin -- pitcher glut; any of these guys could make my ballot if it ever has fewer than 4 pitchers on it; not that I have an actual quota.
Next in line, in no order, but I’d be very reluctant to but them on a ballot -- Milan, Burns, Daubert, Pratt, Gardner, Donaldson, Petway, Evers, Tiernan, Tinker, Jennings, Williamson, Meyerle, White, Thomas, Cross and Chance.
   47. andrew siegel Posted: September 07, 2004 at 08:05 PM (#841009)
Calm down, John.

That why it's the #1 thread NOT to start.
   48. andrew siegel Posted: September 07, 2004 at 08:07 PM (#841012)
How about a thread that actually needs to be started: Sorting out the SS--Tinker vs. Long Vs. Fletcher vs. Bush vs. Sewell vs. Bancroft vs. Maranville vs. Chapman.
   49. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 07, 2004 at 08:24 PM (#841042)
Andrew:

I wasn't really upset. I've just seen too many Primer threads destroyed over a single post, that's all.

How about a thread that actually needs to be started: Sorting out the SS--Tinker vs. Long Vs. Fletcher vs. Bush vs. Sewell vs. Bancroft vs. Maranville vs. Chapman.

Good idea, but I would probably give Long his own for the 19th century thread.
   50. TheGoodSamaritan Posted: September 07, 2004 at 09:40 PM (#841144)
1934 Vote:
01. Ty Cobb CF - The starting center fielder of the team of "the most despised players by teammates/fans/me", which also includes:
c Marty Bergan
1b Hal Chase
2b Roger Hornsby
3b Dick Allen
ss Maury Wills
lf Jeff Heath
rf Reggie Jackson
sp Carl Mays
Maybe somebody like Dick Bartell, who was booed everywhere he went, is more suitable to the team than Maury Wills, but I personally dislike Wills more. You could also replace Reggie Jackson with Albert Belle if you like. The team would win the pennant easily if Chase doesn't infect the team with his virus.

02. Tris Speaker CF - He was pretty close in getting the top spot from Cobb whenever I ask myself the question "If I had a team, which of the two would I want more?". Cobb was the better offensive player and was a good defensive outfielder, but the baggage that Cobb carried makes the choice very close.
Is Tris the greatest defensive outfielder of all-time? According to Win Shares, Speaker's 4.93 is the 5th most defensive WS per 1000 innings of all of the outfielders with more than 6695 defensive innings -- after Andruw Jones (6.47), the Curt brothers, Flood (5.32) and Welch (5.11), and Mike Kreevich (5.06). But the 4 players above him has not experience a decline phase where the fielder looses a step or two which drags down the WS/1000. For example, Flood has played the most innings, but he has played about 9700 innings less than Speaker has. Keevich is the next closest and he has played about 13500 innings less. Andruw Jones has a chance but he has a long ways to go. If I were to pick the best outfield defenders, I would probably pick an outfield of 'Carey - Speaker - Mays' with a nod to Jones, who is in mid-career, and Flood, who had his career ended prematurely. Personally, the best outfielder I have ever seen is Devon White. I have not seen enough of Andruw Jones to pass any judgment on him (I don't get TBS).

03. Eddie Collins 2B - The best player not to get in the HoM in his first year? I guess I could've used Cobb's off field conduct and penalized him for it and bump Cocky Collins in one of the 'bonus' slots, but what the hay, they all will get in pretty soon so it doesn't really matter.

04. John Henry 'Pop' Lloyd SS - Probably the second best shortstop of all time.

05. 'Smokey' Joe Williams SP - I have him being the second best pitcher in the history of the Negro League.

06. Cristobel Torriente RF/CF

07. Bill Monroe 2B - 5 Negro Leaguer in a roll, 6 in the top 15, might be a little extreme, but personally I wouldn't have put Frank Grant and Rube Foster into the HoM (yet at least). I have Grant rated below Monroe and Foster (player only) rated below Donaldson.

08. Spotswood Poles CF - The 4th best CF in Negro League history? Sounds about right. I think he was the same type of player that Cool Papa Bell was. I feel that people are placing too much weight on the theoretical numbers that i9s.org has up. They are not real and who really knows how accurate they are in determining a player's value.

09. Jimmy Ryan CF
10. George Van Haltren CF
11. Roger Bresnahan C
12. Mike Tiernan RF
13. Stan Coveleski SP
14. John Donaldson SP
15. Fielder Jones CF
   51. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 08, 2004 at 12:00 AM (#841474)
Good Samaritan,

How about Alex Johnson for your all-detested team?
   52. ronw Posted: September 08, 2004 at 12:23 AM (#841573)
The team could be managed by Charles Comiskey and owned by Andrew Freedman.
   53. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: September 08, 2004 at 12:36 AM (#841627)
And of course we all know who the commissioner would be.

Jay Mariotti could be beat writer.
   54. DanG Posted: September 08, 2004 at 03:39 AM (#842252)
My #1 and #2 were elected. I deleted the older exhibits this time. The class of 1934 is probably the best we’ll ever see, with four of the top 25(?) players in history (Cobb-Speaker-Collins-Lloyd), another great Black star (Torriente) plus one great, and another near-great pitcher (Williams-Covaleski). In 1935, Bingo DeMoss, Max Carey and Carl Mays debut. The backlog grows in 1936 as Alexander and Heilmann lead another stellar group that also includes Sisler, Bancroft and Marcelle.

1)Ty Cobb – “A Genius In Spikes”. Isn’t that his title?

2)Tris Speaker – Going with traditional, nearly universal consensus of him over Collins.

3)Eddie Collins – Probably the best all-around 2B of all-time.

4)John Lloyd – High uncertainty quotient leaves him with no chance of higher placement on this ballot.

5)Smokey Joe Williams – Easily the best pitcher on the ballot.

6)Cristobel Torriente – Everything points to him being a HoMer. Either him, Mackey or Suttles will be the next NLer in the Cooperstown Hall.

7)Lip Pike (3,2,2) –If the HoM is about respect for all eras, then Pike is a “n-b”. IMO, his era is very underrepresented and he seems unchallenged as the best remaining candidate. Number of HoMers playing regularly during his career:
1866: 2 (Pearce, Start)
1867: 3 (the above 2 plus Wright)
1868: 5 (above 3, Barnes, Spalding)
1869: 7 (above 5, White, McVey)
1870: 8 (above 7, Sutton)
1871: 9 (above 8, Anson)
1872: 10 (above 9, O’Rourke)
1873: 11 (above 10, Hines)
1874: 11
1875: 11
1876: 10 (Pearce token)
1877: 9 (Barnes injured)
1878: 11 (Start, Wright, White, McVey, Sutton, Anson, O’Rourke, Hines, Bennett, Kelly, Ward)

In 1879 it explodes to 16; in 1881 it hits 20 and stays at 18+ until the teens.

Slugging average .300+, age 30+, 1876-82, minimum 600 PA:

1—.420 Lip Pike
2—.387 Joe Start
3—.386 Jim O’Rourke
4—.378 Deacon White

5—.331 Bob Ferguson
6—.327 Ezra Sutton
7—.311 Andy Leonard
8—.302 George Wright

The rest of these guys wouldn’t be bad HoMers, but I can’t justify ranking any of them among the top seven, above my personal “Clearly deserving” line.

8) George Van Haltren (4,3,3)—The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 25th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he has higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan actually played more corner outfield.

9) Tommy Leach (5,4,4) – With 3B and CF lagging in HoM members, you’d think he’d get more attention. If you’re a FOBW, I don’t think you can ignore this guy. Question of league quality knocks him back a couple pegs, otherwise really close to Wallace. Had a better peak than Bobby, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke).

10)Clark Griffith (6,5,5) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Could hit a little, too.

11) Jimmy Ryan (7,6,6)—Played with St. Paul in Western Lg in 1901.

12) Roger Bresnahan (8,7,7) – Even with Santop, catcher is easily the most poorly represented position in the HOM, a condition that may prove to be chronic. Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+.

13)Harry Hooper (9,8,8) – Per adjusted win shares, his peak was better than Beckley’s. I see him at 34.5 for the abbreviated 1918 season. His 27.4 in 1916 is also better than Jake’s best, 26.6 in 1890. A couple bulk seasons at the end of his career in a weak NL give Beckley 28 more career AWS.

14)Jake Beckley (10,9,9) – He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples are a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh; his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Hit only 34 of 86 career homes at home.

Beckley's RBI total is still the 8th best all-time among firstbasemen. Besides Anson (#1 all-time) there's Gehrig, Foxx, Murray, Palmeiro, Perez and Killebrew ahead of Beckley. McCovey and McGriff round out the top ten. Bagwell and Thomas figure to join this group next season.

15)Heinie Groh (12,ne,ne) – His hitting is in the HoMer class; glove looks pretty good. Played 2B two years, then 3B for ten yrs. Outstanding peak, similar career length to Williamson. Mediocre power and speed. Was replaced by Freddie Lindstrom as Giants’ 3B. Highest career FA, 3B, 1876-1927, minimum 750 games at 3B:

1—.967 H. Groh
2—.960 O. Vitt
3—.958 J. Dugan
4—.958 C. Deal
5—.956 P. Traynor
6—.952 B. Jones
7—.948 L. Gardner

Rube Waddell – Still under consideration. Had only two seasons as regular with a Win % of at least .600. His career seems to contain contradictions, mainly a won-loss record out of sync with his ERA. Perhaps he was a notorious hot/cold pitcher, getting raked over the coals after a couple shutouts. Can anyone do a study on this--is his standard deviation for RA higher than others? May deserve some credit for minor league performance.

Duffy, Williamson, Jennings and Welch fall off for now. I like Covaleski and will likely have him on future ballots.
   55. robc Posted: September 08, 2004 at 07:44 PM (#843155)
Gramma Murphy says we all have the top 5 wrong, so I figure I dont need to discuss them. Actually, the only one I am sure about is #1. The rest of #2-#5 is a best guess.
1. Ty Cobb
2. Tris Speaker
3. Pop Lloyd
4. Eddie Collins
5. Joe Williams
6. Cristobal Torriente - While not a "no-brainer", he is clearly (to me) a HoMer and Im not sure the same can be said about anyone else on the ballot. Thus, he goes here.
7. Fielder Jones - good career, good peak, the best of the glut. Im the biggest FOFJ, and I cant get excited about him. I figure I have about 5 years to figure out if he really belongs here. If he does, I will start trying to convince others to at least put him on their ballot.
8. Lave Cross - Best 3B on the ballot.
9. Heinie Groh - Look, its a 3B glut. I give the nod to Lave.
10. Harry Hooper - Best career value of all players on the ballot excluding those with twice his career value.
11. Cupid Childs - I could put anything here, no one is reading more than 6 deep this year.
12. Jake Beckley - Wow! what a peak.
13. Ben Taylor - Possibly overshadowed because of other Negro Leaguers now eligible. Also, possibly doesnt belong in the HoM.
14. Jimmy Ryan - I havent figured it out in a while, but I think he is in my PHoM.
15. Stan Coveleski - Made the top 15. In the prelim thread I said he was going to miss out.

16. Bobby Veach
17. Rube Waddell - Should be back on the ballot soon.
18. George VanHaltren - He was 2nd on my ballot multiple times.
19. Hughie Jennings - Has also been very high on my ballot.
20. Mike Griffin
21. Joe Tinker
22. Tommy Leach
23. Clark Griffith - I believe everyone above him, and at least 3 spots below him have made my top 15 at some time. Some of them will make it back. We will have to see if Griffith is one of them.
24. Mike Tiernan
25. Roger Bresnahan
26. Del Pratt
27. Vic Willis
28. Billy Nash
29. Ed Konetchy
30. Herman Long
   56. robc Posted: September 08, 2004 at 07:47 PM (#843161)
I forgot to discuss Pike and Welch. With the new candidates, Pike, who was fighting for a spot in the top 30, now can't get there.

I would elect Pike before Welch.
   57. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 08, 2004 at 08:33 PM (#843251)
Gramma Murphy says we all have the top 5 wrong,

When did I say that? I did say that it wasn't as cut-and-dried as some feel, but that's not the same thing, Rob. In fact, there was only one spot of the top five on my ballot that I felt extremely confident about.

...and don't call me Grandma! :-)
   58. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 08, 2004 at 08:34 PM (#843252)
...or Gramma! :-)
   59. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: September 08, 2004 at 08:57 PM (#843299)
We'll stick with...

1934
1 Ty Cobb: "A genius in spikes." -- Plaque outside Tiger Stadium
2 John Henry Lloyd: "The greatest player anywhere." - Babe Ruth
3 Tris Speaker: One of the greatest ever…but did he throw games?
4 Smokey Joe Williams: Greatest black pitcher not named Leroy.
5 Eddie Collins: No disrespect, but Pop was better.
6 Cristobal Torriente: Lord, how this man could hit.
7 Jake Beckley: Consistent, but WAY below the top contenders.
8 George van Haltren: Bob Caruthers' evil twin.
9 Heinie Groh: I'm not afraid to show off my Heinie.
10 Lip Pike: If only he was ten years younger…
11 Hughie Jennings: Ee-Yah…!!
12 Rube Waddell: Great pitcher, mostly remembered as a punchline.
13 Mickey Welch: 300 wins…howzabout some love?
14 Roger Bresnahan: Fiery!
15 Pete Browning: Gladiator or crazy drunk? You decide.
   60. robc Posted: September 09, 2004 at 01:46 PM (#844608)
John,

Yeah, I know what you originally wrote. And originally meant. So, you dont think I should be 100% confident about the nearly bogus pulled-out-of-thin-air numbers I have for Lloyd and Williams?

And Ill call you Gramma or Grandma whenever I feel like it. :)
   61. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2004 at 02:04 PM (#844635)
Rob:

LOL
   62. mbd1mbd1 Posted: September 09, 2004 at 02:28 PM (#844664)
1. Ty Cobb (NA) - Number one with a bullet.
2. Tris Speaker (NA) - Would be at the top of the ballot in any other year.
3. Smokey Joe Williams (NA) - The numbers are tremendous, even with a discount.
4. Eddie Collins (NA) - Same as Tris.
5. Pop Lloyd (NA) - Same as Smokey Joe.
6. Cristobal Torriente (NA) - I'm sure that my top five are all better than the holdovers. I'm not as confident about Torriente, but I can't see any reason to place him any lower.
7. George Van Haltren (3) - Sorry, George - you'll work your way back up in a few years.
8. Jake Beckley (4) - Same goes for you, Jake.
9. Harry Hooper (6) - Not much new to say about these holdovers, as they are simply displaced by much better players.
10. Ben Taylor (NA) - Taylor is a tougher call; he seems better than Poles, who I liked.
11. Jimmy Ryan (5) - The rest of my ballot probably won't get a HoM plaque.
12. Hugh Duffy (7)
13. Vic Willis (9)
14. Tommy Leach (8)
15. George J. Burns (10)

just missed: Poles, Coveleski, Veach, Griffith, Waddell, Groh.

I like Groh; he'll get on my ballot eventually. But he probably won't make it very far up with only 272 career WS. Pike is down my list of OF along with Browning, Cravath, and Jennings - guys who were very good for a short time. Welch has been on and off my ballot, and is currently sitting at 22.
   63. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2004 at 03:08 PM (#844724)
But he probably won't make it very far up with only 272 career WS.

How many third basemen have more than Groh at that point (and only Baker and McGraw are clearly ahead of him in WS per 162 games)?
   64. PhillyBooster Posted: September 09, 2004 at 04:38 PM (#844882)
Lave Cross (275) and Tommy Leach (329) are two, among non-HoMers, and Larry Gardner is nipping at his heals with 259.

And adjust for season length, and I'm looking at Ed Williamson, Arlie Latham, and Billy Nash as essentially tied in career value as well in the 260-280 range.

I'm not saying Groh isn't the best of the lot, just that if he is, it's by a very narrow margin.
   65. TheGoodSamaritan Posted: September 09, 2004 at 05:20 PM (#844954)
RMc wrote:
Tris Speaker: One of the greatest ever…but did he throw games?

I think Bill James wrote about this. He wrote that while Cobb might have thrown a game, there was no evidence at all that Speaker had anything to do with it. It was more of a personal grudge between Speaker and Dutch Leonard.

the good doctor, Dr. Chaleeko wrote:
How about Alex Johnson for your all-detested team?

That's a good one. I have forgotten about him.

Ron Wargo wrote:
The team could be managed by Charles Comiskey

Comiskey, I don't think, was hated by his players until he was an owner of the White Sox. He was pretty successful as a manager when he was with the St Louis team in the AA. Maybe Ossie Vitt? Or maybe Hornsby could be the playing manager.

Chris J. wrote:
Jay Mariotti could be beat writer.

What paper did he write/wrote for? I don't know his stuff, but he can't be worse than Richard Griffin, can he? Is that even possible?!?
   66. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2004 at 05:38 PM (#844990)
Lave Cross (275) and Tommy Leach (329) are two, among non-HoMers, and Larry Gardner is nipping at his heals with 259.

Groh beats all three in WS per 162 games fairly easily (and Leach played a ton of games in the outfield which helped extend his career).

And adjust for season length, and I'm looking at Ed Williamson, Arlie Latham, and Billy Nash as essentially tied in career value as well in the 260-280 range.

Sutton would top them all, but he did retire in the 1880s, so that has to be taken account. The same thing with the three that you mentioned.

My point was that 272 WS is damn fine for a third baseman (and his WS per 162 games is outstanding for the position).
   67. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2004 at 05:41 PM (#844996)
And adjust for season length, and I'm looking at Ed Williamson, Arlie Latham, and Billy Nash as essentially tied in career value as well in the 260-280 range.

I forgot to mention that Groh trumps these three in WS per 162 Games, too.
   68. DavidFoss Posted: September 09, 2004 at 05:48 PM (#845013)
I forgot to mention that Groh trumps these three in WS per 162 Games, too.

Yeah, Groh is a peak-value candidate. Career-value arguments will underrate him in my opinion. When a peak-value candidate has a career value is up with the other candidates at the position, that's a plus in my book. He doesn't have the peak of John McGraw, but McGraw has major career-value issues that Groh does not have.
   69. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2004 at 05:58 PM (#845038)
Yeah, Groh is a peak-value candidate. Career-value arguments will underrate him in my opinion. When a peak-value candidate has a career value is up with the other candidates at the position, that's a plus in my book. He doesn't have the peak of John McGraw, but McGraw has major career-value issues that Groh does not have.

Exactly, David (and illustrates why one shouldn't rely solely on the career WS numbers for any candidate).

BTW, in over 130 professional seasons, the greatest third baseman of all-time only has 468 WS. That position is murder on whoever plays it!
   70. TomH Posted: September 09, 2004 at 06:13 PM (#845089)
For the selfish sake of my Scoresheet team's future success, I am hoping that one young stud David Wright (who I snatched up early in 2003) eclipses the career WS mark among 3Bmen!
   71. Al Peterson Posted: September 09, 2004 at 06:19 PM (#845105)
1934 ballot. Excuse the shortness, work gets in the way sometimes. If only all these top six guys could have played in the same league. That would have been quite fun to watch.

1. Ty Cobb (-). Not the nicest human being but we’re not passing out Boy Scout badges here. Could play ball like few others.

2. Eddie Collins (-). I’m sold on the tougher replacement of middle infielders as the reason for his 2nd place showing.

3. Pop Lloyd (-). He falls around here. The praise from Babe Ruth was echoed by others as well so there might be something to this “greatest ever” tag.

4. Tris Speaker (-). Flycatcher extraordinaire who wielded a mighty stick on occasion.

5. Smokey Joe Williams (-). Probably underselling but somebody gets the shaft. His wait for HOM will be forgotten in a couple of years.

6. Cristobal Torriente (-). Seems to meet all my criteria for a ballot election spot, gave up game at a very bad time with no-brainers all over the place.

7. Rube Waddell (3). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. His 1902 season: 12-8 out in LA to start season, brought back to Philly by Connie Mack in June and went 24-7. That's a lot of pitching. Unique in that he controlled the game, via strikeouts, at a time when the ball was always put in play (dead-ball era).

8. Hughie Jennings (4). Peak-riffic. SS with plenty of glove and bat, albeit for a short stretch of time.

9. Pete Browning (5). #18 on the SABR 19th century Top 40 players survey done in the late 1990s. Everyone above him, and 12 below him have been elected. 1884-1893 Leaders OWP 4000+ PA

1 Dan Brouthers .787
2 Roger Connor .748
3 Pete Browning .733
4 King Kelly .699
5 Tip O'Neill .695
6 Cap Anson .691
7 Harry Stovey .685
8 Sam Thompson .676
9 George Gore .660
10 Henry Larkin .657

10. Heinie Groh (6). Kinda a surprise when I analyzed him and got him to slot this highly. Positional leadership over others at 3B in the same era is the key here.

11. Stan Coveleski (-). Between Waddell and Griffith when done studying so that gets you on the ballot.

12. Jimmy Ryan (7). Big fall for Jimbo. How he ever got so high on my ballot anyways tells you the depths to which the candidate drought took over.

13. George Van Haltren (8). His time has probably come and gone for getting into the HOM.

14. John McGraw (9). Limited playing time but what he did with it is nonetheless outstanding. Positional bump as well. Cons include just not playing enough but was on base all the time when participating.

15. Cupid Childs (10). He's always bounced between being on the ballot and off. I'm keeping a gap between him and Doyle as I feel he was the better of the two. From that underrepresented period of the 1890s.

Hangin' around:

16-20: Beckley, Duffy, Griffin, Leach, Griffith
21-25: Doyle, Mullane, Poles, Veach, Bresnahan
26-30: Mendez, Welch, Taylor, Tiernan, Cravath
31-35: Willis, Youngs, Pike, Moore, Hooper
36-40: Dunlap, C Jones, F Jones, Shocker, Cooper

Top 10 Returnees not included: Beckley (16th), Duffy (17th), Griffith (20th), Welch (27th), Pike (33rd).
Three of the group got bumped by the tidal wave of new eligibles, Welch has a few too many question marks, and Pike well, I don't know, he just doesn't do anything for me. Probably some era bias on my part.
   72. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 09, 2004 at 07:01 PM (#845242)
1934 ballot

1. Tyrus Raymond Cobb
According to Win Shares, the second greatest player ever. Who am I to disagree? BTW, does the historical distribution of Win Shares match the historical distribution of home runs? Seems like the numbers of 700+ and 500+ seem roughly comparable...

2. Tris Speaker
Can't take a Negro Leaguer over one of the ten greatest major leaguers ever...

3. Eddie Collins
Or the greatest major leaguer ever at his position, with apologies to Joe Morgan.

4. Pop Lloyd
Can't put anyone else above the greatest Negro League position player not named Josh Gibson or Oscar Charleston.

5. Smokey Joe Williams
When Satchel Paige said "Don't look back, something might be gaining on you," he could easily have been talking about his stature in the annals of Negro League pitchers. Second to one.

6. Cristobal Torriente
Nothing like the first five, but a definitive HOM'er. Such a shame he was disqualified from the majors for having "kinky hair."

7. Heinie Groh
Great six-year peak with another six years of strong play, plus timeline, gets him here.

8. Charley Jones
Short seasons understate his greatness, he was extraordinarily good in 1879 and dominated the early AA as well. Blacklist years not his fault.

9. Clark Griffith
ERA+ makes it seem that Griffith had one dominant year in 1898 and was just above average elsewhere. In fact, he was just as good in 1899 (look at K, BB, HR, and BABIP/Teammates' BABIP), was a reliable workhorse, and pitched at an All-Star level for a decade. You can't see his greatness on the surface, but look deeper into the numbers and from 1896-1901 he was a genuine superstar.

10. Stan Coveleski
I have him in a dead heat with Griffith; advantage to Clark based on 1890's NL.

11. Lip Pike
Obviously a truly dominant player in the NA and 1876 NL, played many years pre-1871 at a very high level.

12. Pete Browning
1890 showed us he was for real, so his knock-em-dead years in '82, '85 and '87 have to be taken seriously. More career value than the “career” guys GVH/Beckley by my measure, and a true dominator for three or four seasons. Hopefully I can drum up some support for him; he really deserves it.

13. Cupid Childs
Offensive juggernaut at a scarce position with often excellent leather for eight years. A bona fide superstar in '90, '92, and '96, and a strong All-Star in '93 and '97. Didn't play forever but so good that he accumulated more career value than the "career guys" IMO. We don't have anyone from his era at his position, and because he played in a stronger league than his comps by my estimate.

14. Addie Joss
Joss had a remarkable ability to prevent hits on balls in play, allowing a BABIP 31 points lower than his teammates' for his career (.238/.269). He had six seasons where he was absolutely one of the best in the biz, including 1908 which was particularly standout. His rate stats were so good that even despite his innings problem, he still comes out mid-ballot on both career and peak.

15. Hughie Jennings
So good for five years that he was more valuable than guys who played for three times as long.

Left off:
Rube Waddell
Rube’s taken a big hit with my reevaluation. I *love* the K's, but now that I can see that deadball pitchers really could prevent hits on balls in play, he stands out less than he did before. It's worth nothing that his 1903 season was just as good as his much more highly regarded '04--almost as many innings, same BB/K/HR rates, similar propensity to giving up line drives (BABIP 5% higher than teammates' in '03, 6% in '04). '02 was really his best season though. One of the best pitchers in baseball from '02-'05, but not an otherworldly dominator and not enough career to push him further up the ballot or into my revised PHoM.

Eddie Cicotte
He really was a premier, superstar pitcher from 1917-19, and was serviceable in 1913 and 1920. A slightly above league average pitcher for the rest of his career.

Jimmy Ryan
He doesn’t fare that well in my system, but I do have to give respect to his near-ballot-topping career value and he did at least have two great years in 1888 and 89.

John McGraw
He didn't play long enough to make the HoM, and rarely played full seasons even when he did. But man, was he good--an on-base machine the likes of which the game has rarely seen since.

Vic Willis
Just kept churning out those innings at an above-average level. The Beckley of pitchers, but a more valuable career than Beckley and at least a genuine All-Star once or twice.
   73. PhillyBooster Posted: September 09, 2004 at 08:06 PM (#845427)
BTW, in over 130 professional seasons, the greatest third baseman of all-time only has 468 WS. That position is murder on whoever plays it!

Or maybe, because if you're good enough you play somewhere else?

For general discussion, The Saddest Sack: Why Third Base is the Worst Position in Baseball"

"The answer, I suspect, is that player development is not Aristotelian. Young players tend to get noticed by being outstanding at something, not by being fairly good across the board. In the infield, they are either nimble fielders (i.e., the shortstop type) or prodigious power hitters (i.e., the first baseman type), but not both. So, third base is where the rejects land—the oafish guys who don't quite have the pop to play first (Nevin), or the banjo hitters who aren't quite sharp enough afield to play shortstop (Bell). Moving to third is usually a demotion, as when the Red Sox slid John Valentin over from shortstop to make room for Nomar Garciaparra. And leaving third looks a lot like a step up: When Jim Thome blossomed into a top-class slugger, the Indians moved him across the diamond to first."

From what I've seen so far, the author is correct that third basemen tend to be "pretty good across the board" but not really great in anything. Maybe that's not just the crop of 3Bs we're looking at now -- maybe it's inherent in the position! The argument is that Third Base is really a "position" that people train to play, it's just a place you end up if you're not good enough to play anywhere else, but too good to be a backup.
   74. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 09, 2004 at 08:07 PM (#845429)
Piggybacking on Dan Rosenheck's what-if comment about Torriente being disqualified due to kinky hair...

If Torriente's hair had been straighter, I wonder if we'd now be referring to him as Chris Torriente.
   75. Howie Menckel Posted: September 09, 2004 at 08:13 PM (#845444)
Jay Mariotti is a feisty columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times, in the fire-and-brimstone "Fire the Manager" school of writing.
He either doesn't pull punches, or is obnoxious, depending on your point of view.
   76. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2004 at 08:24 PM (#845462)
Or maybe, because if you're good enough you play somewhere else?

I don't buy it. For a generation? Sure, But not for fourteen decades.

BTW, the Saddest Sack article "might" explain the post-1950 third basemen, but not before that time. IMO, contemporary baseball analysts are just ignorant of the position and its responsibilities during that time.
   77. ronw Posted: September 09, 2004 at 08:45 PM (#845538)
Tris Speaker: One of the greatest ever…but did he throw games?

I think Bill James wrote about this. He wrote that while Cobb might have thrown a game, there was no evidence at all that Speaker had anything to do with it. It was more of a personal grudge between Speaker and Dutch Leonard.


I like James' books, but his definition of "evidence" leaves something to be desired. See his explanation of "no evidence" in the Pete Rose case.

Plus, there is evidence in the Speaker case. It may not be a smoking gun, but it is evidence.

First, there are letters from both Leonard and Cobb naming Speaker as in on the fix.

Second, in The Glory of Their Times audio Joe Wood admits the fix, and that he, Leonard, Speaker and Cobb took money.

Finally, although the circumstances are murky, Cobb and Speaker were fired as player-managers after the 1926 season, and they did meet with Landis in December of that year. According to Wood's recollection, Cobb and Speaker hired a lawyer and would have uncovered a great deal more unsavory conduct in baseball had they gone down.

To me, that's a lot more than "no evidence." However, you don't necessarily have to believe it.
   78. Guapo Posted: September 09, 2004 at 09:06 PM (#845605)
Can't take a Negro Leaguer over one of the ten greatest major leaguers ever...

why not?
   79. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: September 09, 2004 at 09:21 PM (#845645)
Jay Mariotti is a feisty columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times, in the fire-and-brimstone "Fire the Manager" school of writing.
He either doesn't pull punches, or is obnoxious, depending on your point of view.


I'll drop the subject after this post, but the above is giving Mariotti way too much credit. He's a cynical, drunken hack who writes provocative, controversial crud solely for the purpose of getting a rise out of people.
   80. DavidFoss Posted: September 09, 2004 at 09:28 PM (#845657)
Or maybe, because if you're good enough you play somewhere else?

I don't buy it. For a generation? Sure, But not for fourteen decades.


Not even an entire generation. The Slate writer just had to wait three years. Its not 2001 anymore. 3B-men are outhitting the 1B-men in the AL and with Beltre, Rolen and Co in the NL, the position is just loaded with talent this year.
   81. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2004 at 09:38 PM (#845683)
I like James' books, but his definition of "evidence" leaves something to be desired. See his explanation of "no evidence" in the Pete Rose case.

Not the finest hour for the man that changed my baseball worldview twenty-two years ago, I must say.

Jay Mariotti is a feisty columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times

Is "feisty" now used as an adjective for "crappy?" :-)

Not even an entire generation. The Slate writer just had to wait three years. Its not 2001 anymore. 3B-men are outhitting the 1B-men in the AL and with Beltre, Rolen and Co in the NL, the position is just loaded with talent this year.

:-)
   82. Brian H Posted: September 09, 2004 at 11:59 PM (#845945)
1934 Ballot – Opening the Floodgates....
Even when trying to exercise some caution in placing the new entrants they still overwhelm the field....


1. Ty Cobb- For many years he was considered the greatest ever. That argument can still be maintained. Surprisingly Cobb was also a mildly successful player/manager and helped mentor Harry Heilman (not that he gets or needs credit for it to be a HOMer.)

2.Tris Speaker - This is where it got tough for me. Speaker, Lloyd, Williams and Collins all have their respective selling points. Speaker is the safe choice and wins out on fielding (although I may be shortchanging Lloyd). Speaker also beats out Collins on leadership value and Williams for career value (and the uncertainty that unfortunately haunts the Negro league greats when compared with their white counterparts).

3.Pop Lloyd - Barely beats out Collins because many people actually believe/believed that he was the best player ever. I have never heard Collins described that way. Lloyd also has a slight fielding edge over Collins as a Shortstop although Collins World Series greatness (except 1919) makes it a really tough call.

4.Eddie Collins – Perhaps the greatest 2B ever (I favor Lajoie but I’d have trouble convincing anyone else). Collins was also a great post-season player and a genius on basepaths.

5. Smokey Joe Williams – I feel bad about his placemen but my lack of insight into his greatness (caused largely by the paucity and unreliability of the existing Stats) makes it impossible for me to put him above the previous four. He may well have been the greatest Pitcher ever but “may” just won’t cut it against the likes of Cobb, Speaker, Lloyd and Collins.

6. Cristobal Torrienti – My understanding is that in his prime he was every bit as good as Oscar Charleston but that his prime (and his career) were much shorter. If he had Charleston’s (or Cobb’s) legendary intensity he could very well lead this list. For that matter if he had the certain paycheck and organized major leagues to play in he might have also equaled the famously undisciplined Babe Ruth.

7Hugh Jennings – (3 AS + 2 MVP) His peak is among the highest ever at SS. He was not merely the top SS of an era abundant with outstanding shortstops. This was in perhaps the most competitive era we have judged to date (the one-league 1890’s). James (a peak fan) ranks Jennings 18th , just above Dahlen among all SSs... Jennings was an integral part of the “Old Orioles” dynasty of the ‘90s.

8. Frank Chance (7 AS, 1 MVP) Chance was the was the premier 1B in baseball for several years (weak years for the position). Conversely, I have Beckley as the top 1B for only a few years. Very valuable on the bases.....Chance could rank higher if: (A) He was accorded credit for managing the Cubs; or (B) He was more durable player and put up career numbers like his longtime nemesis Fred Clarke.

9.Hugh Duffy –(2 AS, 1 MVP) Duffy was integral part of Boston’s “team of the 90’s”. He had an exceptional peak and enough of a career that I can’t call it a fluke. Renowned as a heads-up player and a top-notch fielder.

10.Cupid Childs (5 AS) – I had him above McPhee based on his peak and strength of competition (as does James). I also think he hit a bit better than Bid (although his fielding was clearly inferior).
11.Heinie Groh – Better than I thought he would be.... The best 3B elgible. His career gives him the edge over Mugsy.

12.Mickey Welch – Well I’ve always had a soft spot for him (see earlier ballots)... His 300+ Wins are legit. I wonder why James leaves him off his top 100 but lists Mullane (whose career numbers need to be depreciated somewhat since he played in the AA) instead.

13.Clark Griffith – Among the top Pitchers for the (in my opinion) underappreciated 1890's.

14.Pete Browning (8 AS !) – A better AA hitter you will not find. Not as good all around as Stovey – a much better career than O’Niell. His early AA years are discounted.

15. Stanley Covalevski – as one of the dominant Pitchers of his era I’m starting him a bit low (he may pass Griffith and Welch upon further analysis.) I’m already comfortable listing him above Waddell and Joss when I factor in their gaudy dead ball numbers. I think relative to his era he was more dominant than Mullane (and perhaps Welch).

Off the ballot :
The reason most of these guys aren’t listed is ultimately the sudden influx of SIX top tier players.

Rube Waddell – (3 AS, 1 CY + 1 MVP) – one of the greatest strikeout Pitchers of all time. If he had the legendary savvy of Griffith, for example, he probably would have won 300 games and become a first ballot HOMer.

Roger Bresnahan (4 AS) – Better than Bennett but not by that much. He was a tremendous all-around talent and played a prominent role in the successes of the Giants of the 1900's. Just being a Catcher won’t get him a ballot slot this year.



Lip Pike – He played a bit later than Pearce but did not excel for as long and was probably never the BEST player. Then again at least we have some stats I can appreciate. I guess the ultimate explanation for why he falls behind guys like Moore, McGraw, Youngs and Ryan is that I hold his era in relatively low esteem.

Van Haltren Strong career but not up to what I look for in a peak for his position.

Jimmy Ryan – I like his peak a bit more than VH’s career but neither approaches the list with the 7 new entries. His train accident may be what keeps him out of the HOM.... as I recall he had quite a career going until that time.

Jake Beckley – Same as Van Haltren above only much more so. He places around 25 on my list. His best selling point for me is that he did a lot of his best work in the 1890s – which I believe we are selling short (especially relative to the 1900's and 1880's). As a 1B he rates well-below Chance and just below Ed Konetchy (Sp ?).
   83. Sean Gilman Posted: September 10, 2004 at 12:05 AM (#845960)
1934

1. Ty Cobb (-)--I wouldn’t want him on my team, but he was undeniably great.

2. Eddie Collins (-)--WARP1 likes him better than Speaker, especially on peak. Cobb too, but he’s just too far behind the Peach in career value for me to put him at number one.

3. Tris Speaker (-)--The best player not to make my PHOM on the first ballot.

4. Pop Lloyd (-)--Doesn’t look like his peak was high enough to rate with the three above.

5. Smokey Joe Williams (-)--Best Smokey Joe ever.

6. Lip Pike (2)--Not quite as good in the NA as McVey, but better before; much better in the NA than Start, not as good before. Very underrated. I’ve never been able to understand the anti-1870s crowd. A pennant is a pennant. How one could rank, say, Sam Thompson ahead of Pike I have no idea. Played the infield, played the outfield. The greatest power/speed combination of his time. Great peak and a fairly long career for a 19th Century Outfielder. According to WARP3, the best player on his team in 1871, 1874, 1875, and 1876. .2 WARP3 behind the team leader in 1872, second on the team in 1877. One of the top 2-3 players on the pre-NA teams he played for in his early 20s. Faster than a horse.

7. Pete Browning (3)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP.

8. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me.

9. Cristobal Torriente (-)--While his career was longer, it doesn’t look as if his peak can match that of the three high peak/short career outfielders above.

10. Hughie Jennings (5)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder.

11. Cupid Childs (6)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .

12. Heinie Groh (7)--Peak not quite as high as Jennings or Childs, but better than the long career outfielders.

13. Roger Bresnahan (8)--Great rate stats, but he just didn’t play enough to generate the value of the higher ups on the ballot. Ranks ahead of Childs only because of the bonus I give him for being a catcher.

14. Hugh Duffy (10)--Duffy’s got small (very small) edges on Van Haltren and Ryan in pennants added and win shares peak numbers.

15. George Van Haltren (11)--Gluterrific.

16. Ed Williamson (12)
17. Tommy Leach (13)
18. Jimmy Ryan (14)
19. Larry Doyle (15)
20. Bobby Veach (16)
21. Stan Coveleski (-)--Looks pretty even with Waddell to me. WS likes Waddell, WARP prefers Coveleski.
22. Rube Waddell (17)
23. George Burns (18)
24. Jake Beckley (19)
25. Ben Taylor (-)--Comping him with Beckley for now. looks like his peak was better, but in a shorter career.
   84. sunnyday2 Posted: September 10, 2004 at 12:26 AM (#846033)
Ron, the problem with your post (#77) is the same problem with the original and unfortunate post (#59) by the aptly handled Unfortunate Work of RMc. Unfortunate work, indeed.

The problem is not whether there was or wasn't evidence that Speaker threw a game. Nor why, if there was, Landis blinked.

The problem is that the same person--half of whose evaluation of Tris Speaker is "did he throw games"--would say of Ty Cobb "genius in spikes" and let it go at that.

I mean, the "evidence" against Speaker is evidence against Cobb, too, or am I missing something? It just seems like a very, very gross double standard to me. Move 'em both up or down, fine...but busting Speaker's chops and calling Cobb a "genius" is a bit much.
   85. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 10, 2004 at 12:49 AM (#846127)
To be fair to RMc, he may deduct points from Cobb, too. I wouldn't rely on his short explanations to say absolutely either way.

For the record, I haven't deducted anything from Cobb or Speaker because I think the evidence is flimsy (especially for Speaker).
   86. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2004 at 02:07 AM (#846399)
1934

Like everyone else, the 3-6 spots seem ridiculous to me, but no voter gets a pass out of this challenge.

1. TY COBB - OPS+s 1909-18: 194, 206, 196, 200, 194, 190, 185, 179, 209, 193. AL's leading slugger from 1907-12, and twice more later. Top 10 in OBP every year from 1906-25. Placed first seven times, in top three 14 times. wow.
2. EDDIE COLLINS - OPS+s 1909-15: 171, 152, 162, 158, 164, 176, 165. The rest of his career just a routine HOMer effort, lol. Top 10 in OBP every year from 1909-26 (yet never led). 12 of those in the top 4. Even with positional bonus, can't get him past Tyrus.
3. JOE WILLIAMS - Best Negro League pitcher ever. Basically, a 400-game winner level. "In exhibition games against major leaguers, Williams compiled a 22-7-1 record with 12 shutouts. In 1915 he struck out 10 while hurling a 1-0 three-hit shutout over Hall of Famer Grover Cleveland Alexander and the Phillies."
4. TRIS SPEAKER - OPS+s 1910-17: 171, 157, 188, 181, 178, 151, 185, 172. Top 10 in OBP every year from 1909-25. Led four times, top 5 15 times.
5. POP LLOYD - Deserves to be a first-ballot HOMer, but bad luck to start this year. Not quite buying the Wagner comparisons, and he didn't last as long at SS anyway. "He excelled in a 1910 series played in Havana against the Detroit Tigers, batting .500 in 12 games In 29 recorded games against white major leaguers, Lloyd batted .321."
6. CRISTOBAL TORRIENTE - Weird, weird spot. Would be No. 1 in many years, yet I don't see him as rivaling Lloyd - who reversed his Negro Leagues/Cuba route. Did some quality LH pitching, too, for bonus credit. "Torriente was a powerful, 5'9" lefthanded pull-hitter, and a notorious bad-ball hitter." Could he field? "When he joined the Chicago American Giants in 1919, Hall of Famer Oscar Charleston moved from centerfield to left field." In the 12 documented years that Torriente played in the Cuban League, he hit .352.

7. PETE BROWNING - Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time. Has been discounted too much for AA numbers, and I'm not a big AA fan at all. Still, I am not wedded to ANY of these guys as must-HOM candidates.
8. MICKEY WELCH - Pitching was extremely important in the 1880s in my mind, and this is the last one we need to close the books. I'm still convinced we got a little off-track in the Keefe-Welch-Clarkson discussion; OK if we rate Welch third in that bunch, but not sure how he got THIS far behind. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
9. HEINIE GROH - Moves up a little in the also-ran battle in his second try. I'm slowly starting to give fielding numbers more weight, after being quite skeptical in the 1800s.
10. CLARK GRIFFITH - A personal favorite, and gets a pitching 'quota' bonus. It's remarkable how much better he was than the teams he pitched for. I think he was a brilliant strategist long before he became a manager, and it showed in his pitching.
11. STAN COVELESKI - I buy the idea that these two are very close, after a look at Stan's career. A bit of a transitional time for pitchers, which makes them tougher to compare across eras than hitters, I think.
12. CUPID CHILDS - The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot. Good to see a bit of a revival.
13. JAKE BECKLEY - Deserves recognition, but doesn't have an "oomph" to make the HOM. Still, possibly no one will ever explain what Keeler has that Beckley doesn't. And he's better than many here give him credit for (no disrespect intended).
14. GEORGE VAN HALTREN - See my 'dis' in the 1933 ballot discussion thread. I'm just not a fan, and would rather see him not get in. The early pitching carries him a smidge past Ryan, Duffy, and friends.
15. HUGHIE JENNINGS - Hanging on, barely, by the theory that a four-year megastar is better than entire careers of most of these balloteers. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS. Tough call.


TOP 10 SKIPPED
LIP PIKE - The Dick Allen comparisons seem apt. A little odd that he didn't get to play much with 'the big boys' at a time when they seemed to seek each other out, but the hitting numbers are damn good. My main trepidation is the murmurs about his ethics, but I voted Shoeless Joe No. 1. Or maybe we have enough 1870s guys.
RUBE WADDELL - Strikeouts are cool, but cooler if you know what to do with them. Refuse to believe that this scatterbrain failed to win games just by bad luck.


NEWCOMER
BEN TAYLOR - Beckley Lite, not quite good enough.
   87. yest Posted: September 10, 2004 at 03:04 AM (#846479)
I don't have any proof in front of me now but if I remember correctly in the game in quiston
Ty Cobb who's team was supposed to win the game had a bad game
Tris Speaker who's team was supposed to lose the game went 3 for 5 with 2 triples
and Joe Wood and Dutch Lenoard didn't play
And the team that was supposed to lose won.
also Dutch Lenoard had a personal antimosity towards Cobb
   88. yest Posted: September 10, 2004 at 03:56 AM (#846565)
what Rocker as a reliver
and have Billy Martian maniging
   89. yest Posted: September 10, 2004 at 03:58 AM (#846570)
Stienberner and Finley also deserve a spot
   90. OCF Posted: September 10, 2004 at 04:58 AM (#846651)
Stienberner and Finley also deserve a spot

I assume we're still talking about that "all-despised" team, and I kind of like the idea of "Billy Martian" (sic) managing.

However: Steinbrenner and Finley are to Andrew Freedman as Reggie Jackson and Dave Winfield are to Ty Cobb as players. Sure, Reggie and Winfield were good baseball players, and sure, there were times when I wouldn't have wanted to stand next to Big George or Charlie O in front of a crowd (or in a thunderstorm), but there are questions of scale here.
   91. Guapo Posted: September 10, 2004 at 06:26 AM (#846689)
1. Ty Cobb- From “Baseball’s Greatest Hitters,” 1950- “Clubhouse showers were a refinement which had not yet reached the Sally League and it was the custom of Cobb and [roommate Nap] Rucker to tub themselves in their room after the game. There never was any difficulty about it because Cobb was always first home and first into the tub. [One day Rucker got home first...] Cobb paced the room like a caged lion while Rucker bathed and as Nap stepped from the tub, Ty rushed at him. . . ‘Have you gone crazy?’ demanded Rucker, ‘a fussin and a fightin like this? Just because I happened to be in the bath first today! And for the first time, too!’ ‘You don’t understand, Nap,’ pleaded Cobb, “I’ve got to be first- all the time.”
2. John Henry Lloyd- One of the two greatest shortstops in baseball history. Let me repeat that. ONE OF THE TWO GREATEST SHORTSTOPS IN BASEBALL HISTORY.
3. Tris Speaker- Much closer to Cobb than most people realize.
4. Smokey Joe Williams- Quite possibly the least well known truly great player in baseball history.
5. Eddie Collins- It’s insane he ranks this low.
6. Cristobal Torriente- Here ranks a ballclub.
7. Larry Doyle- Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence.
8. Wilbur Cooper- He was one of the very best pitchers in his league for 10 years- unless you completely discount the NL from 1914-1924, he meets the standards of the HOM. I’m hoping others are just being cautious regarding him. (I guess maybe I should be cautious too).
9. Heinie Groh- Reminds me a lot of Larry Doyle. Considering the dearth of third base candidates, he looks very strong for eventual election.
10. Jose Mendez- This might be too high. I’m impressed with what I see though.
11. Gavvy Cravath- Had a great 5 year run at the top of the league.
12. Ed Konetchy - The best first baseman of his time, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played.
13. Ross Youngs- This is without any additional credit for his untimely death. Youngs was a terrific player- just didn’t live long enough to accrue career “points.” Nine full-time seasons, career avg. of .322 and OBP of .399.
14. Frank Chance- Keith Hernandez comp? An OBP stud who was an offensive star, albeit for a short time. Konetchy’s got a better case though.
15. Stan Coveleski- A 2.89 ERA is pretty good for a guy who pitched in the AL in the 1920's. Not completely sold on him yet, but he makes the ballot.
   92. Guapo Posted: September 10, 2004 at 06:28 AM (#846691)
The only player who made last year’s Top 15 who makes my ballot this year is Groh!

Lip Pike: Comes in at #16, so should be back in future years.

George Van Haltren: The lowest ranked member of the outfield glut for me, he surged ahead of the other contenders for reasons I don’t understand.
Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career and was never one of the truly great players in the league. Konetchy and Chance were the best of their eras.

Clark Griffith- I dumped him off the ballot this year. Took another look at him and was not impressed. Maybe there just isn’t another 1890's pitcher who deserves election....

Hughie Jennings- Comes in around #22. His career was a little too short to establish himself as a solid candidate.

Rube Waddell- We’ve elected a bunch of his mound peers. His career does not stand out compared to those elected.

Mickey Welch- Similarly, I’m taking a break from voting for 1880's pitchers. I’m keeping him on the radar and maybe he’ll get a vote in the future, but I think that era’s quite well represented at this point.

Cupid Childs- Now comes in around #23 with the new influx of candidates.

Hugh Duffy- made my ballot last year, around #19 now.

Roger Bresnahan- another one knocked off the ballot, I’d say he’s in the vicinity of #17.

Pete Browning- I have him ahead of Ryan. Took another look at him and reminded myself how good he is, but he’s got a ways to go before making the ballot.

Jimmy Ryan: I’d take Jimmy over GVH based on peak. Ryan’s not a bad candidate, but it’s becoming increasingly clear to me that I’m never going to vote for him.
   93. Philip Posted: September 10, 2004 at 02:35 PM (#846897)
1934 ballot:
1. Cobb (new) – Most dominant
2. Collins (new) – Dead-even with Tris
3. Speaker (new) – Dead-even with Eddie
4. Williams (new) – Quite a big train himself!
5. Lloyd (new) – Most uncertainty among top 5
6. Torriente (new) – Number 1 almost any year
7. Pike (1-1-1-2-2) – I prefer a star from the 60’s and 70’s than merely a very good player from any other era
8. Covaleski (new) – Just a little better for longer than the other pitchers on the ballot
9. Griffith (5-4-3-3-4) – Just a tad below Stan.
10. Van Haltren (10-6-5-5-5) – Made my pHoM a few years ago.
11. Ryan (11-8-7-6-6) – Looks like the last of the 1890’s, who will eventually make my pHoM
12. Groh (9) – Tremendous peak and enough career for a thirdbaseman
13. Leach (16-15-9-8-10) – Another infielder who is greatly underrated.
14. Shocker (8) – Typical 10’s/20’s pitcher who makes my ballot mainly on peak
15. Mendez (7-7) – Great peak, similar to Urban.

16. Bresnahan
17. Cooper
18. F Jones
19. Hooper
20. Welch
21. C Jones
22. Duffy
23. Long
24. McCormick
25. Beckley
   94. Brad G. Posted: September 10, 2004 at 03:51 PM (#847020)
1934 Ballot:

I'm afraid the top 6 aren't much different than the norm...

1. Ty Cobb- it's all been said.
2. Tris Speaker- One of the top 20 All-time greatest.
3. Eddie Collins- ditto.
4. Pop Lloyd- Top 5 All-time Negro League player.
5. Joe Williams- Surely makes the Top 10 in the NL list, may have been as good or better than Satchel.
6. Cristobal Torriente- Simply awesome.
Back to familiar ground:
7. Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 Centerfielder of all time.
8. Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS5 = 145.
9. Heinie Groh- Takes over as top eligible 3B
10. George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.
11. Clark Griffith- Not much separates him from Waddell anymore in my mind. He does, however, lack the impressive Ink scores of Rube, as well as the ever-important Win Share measurements.
12. Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445.
13. Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.
14. Roger Bresnahan- A 15% Catcher Bonus puts him here. Once again the best eligible catcher this year.
15. Bobby Veach- Veach and Burns are real close. Career WARP3 = 82.1, Black Ink= 22, Gray= 170.
16-21. Browning (not exactly a "glut", but too much competition in CF this year), Leach, Jennings (slips to a temporary #2 on the eligible SS list), Burns, Childs (slips behind Collins, who makes the other elibible 2Bs look almost insignificant), Cicotte.

Thanks!
   95. Kelly in SD Posted: September 10, 2004 at 05:32 PM (#847166)
1934 Ballot:
This will be quick because I am in the middle of moving.

1. Ty Cobb: Huge win shares career-peak-prime-rate. It may seem incredible, but Cobb has almost 100 win shares more than Speaker. Most all of his totals are a touch higher than Speaker and Collins.
2. Eddie Collins: In contrast to the above. His raw totals are below Speaker's, but among his position, he is the best we will see for a long while. Speaker is the best fielding centerfielder and second best overall centerfielder we have considered, the only problem is he is competing against the best centerfielder.
3. John Henry "Pops" Lloyd. It would be entertaining to see a HoM induction ceremony with Cobb next to Lloyd wouldn't it?
Another candidate for best player ever at his position which is saying something considering Honus would be out there as well.
4. Tris Speaker: An amazing player. Just right this second he is waiting for the second year of eligibility. Comparisons are easy with Cobb since they played the same position in the same league at the same time. He just doesn't quite meet Cobb. Best ever (up to 1934) at their position is the de facto standard for the new guys.
5. Joe Williams: Best/Second best pitcher in NeL history. Long career at very high level.
Any of the above five is a number one any year.
6. Mickey Welch: - for many reasons see my previous posts in the pitcher thread.
7. Cristobal Torriente: One of the best NeL centerfielders. A number one in many years.
8. Browning: Consistent excellence makes him my favorite for other outfielders.
9. Leach: (longer prime than Groh) - excelled at two positions. Key reason why the Pirates could come up with so many pitchers who had such consistent seasons.
10. Groh: Career not as long as Leach. They may switch positions again next ballot.
11. Childs: Best second base candidate who is not a candidate for best ever at his position.
12. Duffy: Reconsidering him, but as of right now, he is my favorite of the 90s outfield glut.
13. Veach: Made all star teams despite competing with Cobb, Speaker, and Jackson
14. Burns: Made major league all-star outfields competing with Cobb, Speaker, Jackson, Veach, and Wheat.
15. Becks: Career is just too big to ignore.

Wish my wife and I luck on our move...
   96. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 10, 2004 at 05:56 PM (#847189)
Wish my wife and I luck on our move...

You got it, Kelly. :-)
   97. BryceB (Radiation-Free Tanketra) Posted: September 10, 2004 at 09:54 PM (#847593)
Should have posted sooner this week, but I've been messing with enrollment troubles ...
The problem with this ballot is it's too hard to come up with something to say, especially after the week's gone by. You can't even say "not much to say, they were great", because somebody's said THAT. So, this is a pretty barebones ballot.

1. Pop Lloyd: Not put here just to tick Tyrus off ... though that is a bonus. Would have liked to see him play in the majors every bit as badly as I would have Gibson, Charleston, or (the legitimate) Paige.
2. Ty Cobb. Some people, the universe creates just because otherwise we'd have nothing to talk about, I think.
3. Eddie Collins: Tried really hard to squeeze him up past Cobb in my head ... REALLY hard ... but just couldn't quite do it.
4. Tris Speaker.
5. Smokey Joe Williams: Somebody had to finish fifth.
6. Cristobal Torriente: I know subjective opinion often has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it seems to me that leaving Torriente off the ballot *entirely*, when the subjective opinion seems so *overwhelming*, would be a pretty hefty over-correction.
7. Heinie Groh.
8. Hughie Jennings: There's enough people handing out gold watches, so I don't feel too bad about leaning towards the candles that burned faster but brighter.
9. Clark Griffith.
10. Tommy Leach. Yes, I like third basemen.
11. Addie Joss: Put myself on the couch in '33, so I won't spaz again here.
12. Stan Coveleski.
13. Ben Taylor. I actually thought this was conservative before noticing his name not popping up a lot ... gonna have to do more lookerin'.
14. Spotswood Poles.
15. Hugh Duffy.

Top 10s who didn't make it:
Lip Pike, George van Haltren: Got knocked off the list because of 8 HoM-worthy first-timers.
Mickey Welch, Rube Waddell: No room to move up onto ballot because of 8 HoM-worthy first-timers.
Jake Beckley: Might feel guilty about leaving off ballot, except for 8 HoM-worthy first-timers.
   98. DavidFoss Posted: September 11, 2004 at 01:55 AM (#848028)
Gotta buy my Lotto ticket. I can't win if I don't play!

1. Ty Cobb (ne) -- The man who could have done anything if he'd wanted to. Known for his batting titles and split-hand grip, but finished with 9 Slugging titles as well. 2nd to Ruth in Black despite playing in the league with more stars (including Collins & Speaker below). Bonus points for having great-great-nephew Chris posting ballots here.
2. Pop Lloyd (ne) -- Top Negro league shortstop of all time, in Honus Wagner's league.
3. Tris Speaker (ne) -- Stellar outfield defense pushes him ahead of Collins.
4. Eddie Collins (ne) -- One of the great trio of early 2B. Great fielding and baserunning complement stellar bat.
5. Smokey Joe Williams (ne) -- Compares to Pete Alexander, though a war-less Feller has been mentioned as well. Neyer/James book has his fastball rated in the top 3-4 from 1905 to 1920.
6. Cristobal Torriente (ne) -- The type of OF candidate I've ranked high in the past. High peak, medium length career.
7. Lip Pike (5-4-2-1-2-2-1-1-1-2-2) -- 155 OPS+ CF in the NA/NL. Solid pre-NA play includes time at 2B. Brooklyn's best slugger in '70, second to Start in '69, also had excellent 'rookie' season on great Athletics squad in '66.
8. Heinie Groh (ne-4) -- Best 3rd baseman of the late teens. Peak is not close to McGraw's but doesn't have the career issues that Johnny Mack has.
9. Stan Coveleski (ne) -- 127 ERA+ over 3000 IP. Best human pitcher between 1915 and 1925.
10. Larry Doyle (nr-14-11-9-8-6-7) -- Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests. Recent work here convinced me to drop his NL discount, he's far below Collins even without it. I think the electorate is underrating him.
11. Charley Jones (nr-nr-13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6) -- Late start (for the era) and unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
12. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues -- even for this peak voter -- are causing him to fall. I may be giving up on him, but would resurrect his candidacy in a heartbeat if necessary.
13. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8) -- I like peak and boy does Hughie have peak. Short career, poor seasons outside his peak slip his career OPS+ down to 117.
14. Cupid Childs (nr-15-12-10-9-8-9) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
15. Mickey Welch (nr-14-11-11-12) -- 300 game winner. Played for great teams in an easy era to win games, but new research is saying he did more to earn his W's than previously thought. Still, his meager 113 ERA+ is keeping him low on the ballot.


Griffith -- Was on my ballot last week. Squeezed off by best incoming HOM class ever.
Beckley -- Took a long look at him. Black Ink of 1. Top OPS finishes are 5-7-8-10. His 125 career OPS+ is actually SLG-heavy which is cause for a slight discount... probably explains why his career high in WS is only 23.
Van Haltren -- Two 10ths and an AA-7th in OPS+ is not what I look for in a HOM outfield candidate. Win Shares fielding rating of B. Looks like the Hall of the Very Good to me.
Duffy -- I'm a bit of a Beaneater fan and '94 was great, but 91-AA discount plus lackluster performance after age 30 drop him down into the OF glut with GVH & JR.
Waddell -- I love the strikeouts, I like the 3 of 4 year peak. Evidence several years ago shows that he gave up more than his share of unearned runs, though. Doesn't have the peak necessary for a "short" career induction. Could be swayed, I suppose.
   99. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 11, 2004 at 02:46 AM (#848185)
An embarrassment of riches this year. How nice.

1934 ballot:

1. Ty Cobb: I could argue someone else ahead of him, but I wouldn’t really believe it myself.

2. John Henry Lloyd: Second-best shortstop so far. Or Babe Ruth’s greatest player of all. Wagner thought it an honor to be compared to Pops. The numbers, longevity, and the suggestion of ultimate greatness slip him ahead of the next two.

3. Eddie Collins: Best secondbaseman to date.

4. Tris Speaker: Second-best centerfielder to date.

5. Smokey Joe Williams: The projections on his thread make him very similar to Johnson. That might be overstating it. At worst, he might be similar to Pete Alexander, and that’s not bad at all.

6. Mickey Welch: The only “smudge” I see on Welch’s record is that pesky ERA+. Everything else I see says HOM. (PHOM 1929)

7. Cristobal Torriente: Terrific hitter. Also a top defender. The next guy wasn’t so good at the latter.

8. Pete Browning: Monster hitter. 8-time STATS all-star including 1 each at 2b & 3b. .745 OWP is 9th all-time (1876-1933). (PHOM 1927)

9. Jake Beckley: At or near the top at his position for about 10 years. Long, steady career, lots of gray ink. 3 STATS AS, 7 backup slots. (PHOM 1926)

10. Roger Bresnahan: Positional boost moves him up, and I think his performance in non-catcher roles shows his quality rather than detracting from it. (PHOM 1932)

11. Stan Coveleski: I find him roughly comparable to Griffith, but with more good seasons, so he’s ahead

12. Heinie Groh: vs. Leach: Edge to Tommy in career length and Win Shares, but Heinie’s got more career at 3b and a better WS rate. Overall edge to Groh.

13. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career, McGinnity-like stats but spread out over more years. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

14. Hugh Duffy: Solid WS and WS/162, MVP in ’94, excellent defense.

15. Ben Taylor: On his thread, he’s compared to Beckley. That’s a pretty good recommendation, to me, anyway, and gets him a spot. He reminds me some of Sisler, too.


Dropouts: Doyle, Waddell, Mendez, Leach, Monroe, Childs.
Holdover dropouts from past years: Poles, Pike

In 1933 top 10, off ballot:

Van Haltren: Still don’t see why he’s been getting the level of support he has. Good career, not a standout player. As someone else noted, there is no greatness here.
Jennings: Exceptional peak, but not much else. I like some of both.
Pike: Still squeezed off; has been on my ballot.
Waddell: Likewise squeezed off.
   100. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 11, 2004 at 02:54 AM (#848200)
Gotta buy my Lotto ticket. I can't win if I don't play!

"I figure you have the same chance of winning the lottery whether you play or not."
(Fran Lebowitz)
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