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Monday, September 06, 2004

1934 Ballot

Cobb! Speaker! Collins! Williams! Lloyd!

Who will win the John Murphy Lottery?

Oh, BTW, Cristobal Torriente, Stan Coveleski and Ben Taylor have the huge misfortune of also having their first year of eligibility this “year.”

Returnees include Heinie Groh, George Van Haltren, Lip Pike, Jake Beckley, Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings, Rube Waddell and Mickey Welch.

Hey! Let’s be careful out there (and Happy Labor Day!)

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2004 at 01:30 PM | 146 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Brad Harris Posted: September 11, 2004 at 01:23 PM (#848702)
15 for '34:

1. Ty Cobb
2. Eddie Collins
3. Tris Speaker
4. Pop Lloyd
5. Christobal Torriente
6. Smokey Joe Williams
7. Lip Pike
8. Heinie Groh
9. Jose Mendez
10. Rube Waddell
11. Ed Konetchy
12. Larry Doyle
13. Stan Coveleski
14. Clark Griffith
15. Mickey Welch
   102. Brent Posted: September 11, 2004 at 09:21 PM (#849044)
If the HOM had actually been in existence in 1934 operating according to our rules, I’m sure that there would have been such a public outcry at limiting this year’s class to 2 inductees that we almost would have been forced to change the rules.

1. Tris Speaker: Hey, where’s the fun in playing the Murphy lottery if you pick the same numbers as everyone else! ;>)

Ok…here are reasons for this surprising (even to me) selection. First is the emphasis my rating system gives to fielding. Over the last couple of years I’ve read quite a few articles on defensive evaluation by folks like MGL, Mike Emeigh, Charles Saeger, David Pinto, Michael Humphries, and others. Comparing WS to more sophisticated methods based on PBP information, I drew the following conclusions: (a) While WS is not always accurate season by season, I believe it does a reasonably good job (not perfect) of identifying good and bad fielders over periods of 3 or 4 years or more; and (b) the variation of fielding WS tends to be compressed relative to the more sophisticated measures. For example, if the difference in WS (converted to runs) between the best fielder and worst fielder at a position is 20 runs, the difference between the best and worst according to UZR or the Pinto measure may be 40 runs. For purposes of HOM evaluation, I drew the conclusion if the statistical and subjective evidence are consistent about a player’s long-term fielding skills, it’s appropriate to adjust up the fielding WS of good fielders and adjust down the fielding WS of poor fielders.

For Speaker, of course, both the statistical and subjective evidence say that he was a fielder of historic stature. Here are the top 10 HOM-eligible outfielders in fielding WS / 1000 innings (min. 10,000 innings):

1. Tris Speaker 4.93
2. George Gore 4.35
3. Hi Myers 4.35
4. Fielder Jones 4.29
5. Steve Brodie 4.12
6. Hugh Duffy 3.99
7. Mike Griffin 3.74
8. Cy Seymour 3.73
9. Jimmy Slagle 3.68
10. Jimmy Sheckard 3.65

In valuing the impact of these differences, though, WS is pretty conservative. It shows the average difference between Speaker and Cobb (3.20 fielding WS / 1000) as about 2.4 WS (that is, 7 or 8 runs) every 154 games. I think that the actual difference in their fielding contributions was perhaps twice that large and have adjusted my ratings accordingly.

This adjustment, and the fact that much of Cobb’s small advantage in career games comes from several seasons in which he was not a regular, full-time player -- seasons that are given little credit in my system -- are enough to push Speaker slightly ahead of Cobb. I didn’t make any adjustment for Cobb’s personality, though I do think it negatively affected his teams. All things considered, I’m comfortable asserting that Speaker may actually have been a bit more valuable than Cobb.

2. Ty Cobb: What do you think of the theory that when Krakatau erupted in 1883, its ashes spread resin into the water supply, leading to unprecedented congenital baseball talent among babies born over the next 5 years?

3. Eddie Collins: TDI Eric Enders has mentioned the amazing 1928 Athletics, which included the top 3 here plus Grove, Foxx, Cochrane, and Simmons -- 7 certain HOMers, 6 of them inner circle types. Ironically, their best position player that season was someone who will not make the HOM, Max Bishop.

Collins, IMO, is certainly the best second baseman to date and may have been the best ever. But this year he winds up as # 3 on my ballot.

4. Smokey Joe Williams: The data presented in the discussions led me to realize what a great pitcher Williams was.

5. John Henry Lloyd: No slight is intended to Lloyd; in fact, I agree that he may have been the second greatest SS ever.

6. Cristóbal Torriente: He would have been # 1 on my ballot two “years” ago.

7. Hugh Duffy: He stands out from the outfield glut with:
- 2 seasons as the best position player in the major leagues, 1893-94 (based on WS; tied with Delahanty in 1893)
- 3 seasons as the best outfielder in MLB, 1892-94 (tied in 1893)
- 5 seasons as one of the top 3 outfielders in his league, 1890-94
- 9 seasons among the top 10 outfielders in his league, 1889-1895, 97-98. During these seasons, his teams won 5 pennants. For 2 of the pennants, he was the best position player on his team.

Last “year” his candidacy was criticized by someone pointing out that his career OPS+ is lower than certain other outfielders, such as Mike Tiernan. I thought that we all recognized that other factors can outweigh differences in OPS+. In Duffy’s case, I’ll note that:

- he was a great defensive player according to fielding WS and also by reputation. Duffy had an advantage over Tiernan of 1.6 fielding WS / 1000 innings -- using Bill James’s (IMO) conservative values, rough calculations indicate this difference is worth about 10 points of OPS+. With my own adjustments this difference is worth even more.

- Keeping star players in the lineup is critical for pennant contenders. During Duffy’s 11 seasons as a regular, he missed only 36 games -- an average of 3 games a season.

- During Duffy’s prime, the Beaneaters regularly exceeded expectations both for runs scored, based on OPS+, and for wins, based on the Pythagorean approximation. The assumption underlying WS, which I agree with, is that these differences can reflect gaps in the data, so it is best to spread them among the players on the team to better reflect their accomplishments.
   103. Brent Posted: September 11, 2004 at 09:21 PM (#849046)
8. Tommy Leach: Long career. Good peak performance. Excellent fielder at two important positions. Contributor to several championship teams. Comparable to an HOMer (Sheckard). So why was his name on fewer than half of last year’s ballots?

9. Hughie Jennings: Best player in baseball, 1896-98.

10. José Méndez: An awesome pitcher for about 5 years and a contributor for several more.

11. Mickey Welch: Even in 1885, 44-11 was nothing to sneeze at.

12. Spottswood Poles: I see him as a little below Torriente, Duffy, and Sheckard, but above the rest of the outfield glut.

13. Heine Groh: A fine player and a very good defensive 3B.

14. Vic Willis: May be the most underappreciated player on the ballot. Great seasons in 1899, 1901-2, and 1906, as well as several other good ones.

15. Wilbur Cooper: Another pitcher who worked a lot of innings and put in some very fine seasons.

Other new players: I have Covaleski at 16 -- he should make my ballot in the next year or two -- and Ben Taylor at 35.

Not on my ballot:

Lip Pike: I'll look at him again sometime in the next few weeks, but I’m not yet convinced that he was actually the offensive force that is imagined by many of the voters.

George Van Haltren: Doesn’t offer as much as Torriente, Duffy, and Poles.

Jake Beckley: I rank him fifth among 1B, behind Chance, Fournier, Taylor, and Konetchy. None of the five makes my ballot.

Clark Griffith: Two reasons I don’t rank him as high as others do: I don’t give him full credit for exceeding his win expectations (even over a long career, W-L records have a substantial element of luck). And I don’t see him as pitching a lot of innings relative to the norms of the 1890s.

Rube Waddell: Behind Covaleski among pitchers off my ballot.

Cupid Childs: He was on my ballot 3 “years” ago, but has been slipping as better candidates have entered. I now have him ranked at 26.
   104. karlmagnus Posted: September 11, 2004 at 09:48 PM (#849147)
Brent, I'm already onto 1935, and Carey looks pretty feeble, but is he on your top 10 if you extend it a year?
   105. Brent Posted: September 11, 2004 at 10:02 PM (#849198)
Karl, You're ahead of me. But as you may guess, I love the defense, but am not crazy about the lack of a peak. I see him coming in somewhere just around # 10.
   106. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2004 at 10:20 PM (#849257)
Brent, I'm already onto 1935, and Carey looks pretty feeble, but is he on your top 10 if you extend it a year?

But karlmagnus, he has 351 Win Shares!!!

Okay, he's not going to be on my ballot either. :-) Not much peak there for me.
   107. DavidFoss Posted: September 11, 2004 at 10:36 PM (#849312)
Its worth noting that Carey's got some incredible SB percentages, especially for the era. Though, I think WARP & WS already take those into account though (except that the years without CS data won't appreciate that as much).

Not going to make my ballot, either.
   108. karlmagnus Posted: September 11, 2004 at 10:42 PM (#849336)
To benchmark Carey, in my view, ex a special bonus for magnificent fielding, he's not as good as Duffy, and Duffy's just off the bottom of my ballot. However if Brent's numbers say he's a substantially better fielder than Duffy (#6 on Brent's list), one will have to adjust for this.
   109. dan b Posted: September 11, 2004 at 10:45 PM (#849346)
1. Cobb (1)
2. Speaker (2)
3. Collins (3) These guys ranked 1-2-3 in this order in every component of my composite ranking. Wagner still tops all-time, this trio pushes Lajoie down to #5.
4. LloydUnless Pop knocks Nap down to #6.
5. Williams3rd best pitcher to date.
6. Torriente 6 newbies from the NHBA top 100.
7.Groh (6) Eventual PHoM.
8.Duffy (4). PHoM in 1912.
9.Griffith (2) 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM in 1913.
10.Jennings (12) – PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar.
11.Waddell (4) I like his peak and K’s. 2nd best LHP to date. PHoM 1926.
12.Leach (6) 6th in 8-yr peak, 3rd in career. PHoM 1926.
13.Bresnahan (27) Big position bonus to fill the void behind the plate. HoM will be flawed if we do not induct at least one Major League catcher who played between Buck Ewing’s retirement in 1897 and Gabby Hartnett’s debut in 1922. Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
14.Poles Second Negro Leaguer to make PHoM (1929). Bill James and the Cool Papa’s survey agree.
15.Chance (17) –5 times one of the top 12 players in the NL, 4 times one of the top 5 hitters. Best 1B of the era. NHBA rank of 25 puts him in the BJHoM. PHoM in 1921. The Peerless Leader merits more attention here.
16.Browning (19) – Hitter. PHoM in 1906.
17.Doyle (10) NHBA rank of 20 put him in BJHoM in 1926. PHoM 1930.
18.Willis (1) – 2st in career, 3rd in 3-year peak. By WS, best NL pitcher in 1899 and 1901, 2nd best in 1902 and 1906.
19.Coveleski (4)
20.Burns (5)
21.Taylor Could move up.
   110. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2004 at 10:49 PM (#849355)
To benchmark Carey, in my view, ex a special bonus for magnificent fielding, he's not as good as Duffy,

...or, IMO, Van Haltren, Roy Thomas or Fielder Jones.

Carl Mays may make the bottom of my ballot, but it's tight down there.
   111. Howie Menckel Posted: September 12, 2004 at 01:18 AM (#849509)
I may not be the only one who is leery of giving too much credit to early-era fielding stats, which is why I have given up on Duffy.
I may be shortchanging him, but for that era I need a combo of stats AND reputation for a boost. Have you seen much in peers raving about Duffy? That might help.

I will be getting more comfortable with fielding stats as time goes by, and I have a nagging feeling that already I failed to give enough credit to Speaker for that.
   112. Chris Cobb Posted: September 12, 2004 at 01:20 AM (#849512)

I have Carey slightly above the Van Haltren line, and I like Van Haltren. Carey's a lot like Van Haltren, actually, but he achieved his similar (comprehensive metric) stats against slightly better competition.

Mays ranks fourth among the 1920s pitching cohort so far eligible, behind Coveleski, Shocker, and Cooper, in that order. He won't be making my preliminary ballot. (He's also behind Alexander, Rixey, and Faber among the not yet eligibles.)
   113. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 12, 2004 at 01:40 AM (#849530)
Mays ranks fourth among the 1920s pitching cohort so far eligible, behind Coveleski, Shocker, and Cooper, in that order. He won't be making my preliminary ballot. (He's also behind Alexander, Rixey, and Faber among the not yet eligibles.)

Going over that group made me look twice at my placement of Coveleski because he doesn't stand out with my rankings (which seemed odd to me). Needless to say, I made a mistake with him. I won't worry about it this week, but I'll have him at #6 next week.
   114. OCF Posted: September 12, 2004 at 06:32 AM (#849909)
In the offensive system I'm using - a context-corrected RCAA system with some extra gimmicks - Carey with his last four years missing looks a lot like Fielder Jones (hence a good ways below Van Haltren/Ryan/Duffy). Adding in those last four years hurts more than it helps.
   115. Brent Posted: September 12, 2004 at 02:11 PM (#849968)
Howie Menckel asked:

Have you seen much in peers raving about Duffy?

I'm sure there are others who are more knowledgeable or better read than me, but Duffy is one of those players (like Speaker, Carey, and Jones) for whom almost everything you read mentions his fielding. Duffy's Hall of Fame plaque, which I assume was written in 1947, emphasizes his fielding. And during that era (when teams still averaged about 3 errors per game), fielding statisitcs received a lot of attention. For example, old newspaper box scores often included columns for PO and A (and didn't include RBI).

I admit I could be overadjusting the fielding statistics, but I'm pretty sure that in pre-WWII baseball, fielding mattered more than it does in today's game (and it still matters today).
   116. Howie Menckel Posted: September 12, 2004 at 02:45 PM (#849978)
Thanks, Brent.
I'm not disputing the importance of early fielding, just how well we can measure it.
I'll give Duffy a fresh look in 1935, though. His OPS+s in particular weren't good enough, but now that so many better OFs have been elected, maybe his offense plus a fielding boost rates a vote after all.
   117. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: September 12, 2004 at 06:01 PM (#850097)
Mays ranks fourth among the 1920s pitching cohort so far eligible, behind Coveleski, Shocker, and Cooper, in that order. He won't be making my preliminary ballot. (He's also behind Alexander, Rixey, and Faber among the not yet eligibles.)

You know that defensive adjusment I have at my site? I played around with it & figured that Mays had more above average Fielding Win Shares per 1000 innings than ANY live ball pitcher I could find.

I can't imagine him on my ballot, but I haven't taken my final look yet.
   118. Ken Fischer Posted: September 12, 2004 at 06:27 PM (#850141)
1934 Ballot

1-Ty Cobb 722 WS
Most things I’ve read about the guy make me want to hate him…but that doesn’t he shouldn’t get my first place vote…perhaps only Wagner really rivals him as the top player we’ve voted on.

2-John Henry Lloyd
They called him the black Wagner. That’s good enough for me.

3-Smokey Joe Williams
Smokey Joe rates ahead of Paige on some all-time charts. Johnson, Foster and maybe Mathewson are his only rivals for the best pitcher we’ve voted on.

4-Eddie Collins 574 WS
IMHO…Eddie was the greatest all around 2nd baseman between Bid McPhee and Joe Morgan…with the possible expection of Jackie Robinson when he played 2nd.

5-Tris Speaker 630 WS
In life and death he bears the burden of being compared to Cobb.

6-Cristobal Torriente
Torriente was a five tool player elected to the Cuban Baseball Hall of Fame in 1939 (first class). He played well against white major leaguers.

7-Pete Browning 225 WS
Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me. His defense takes a lot criticism. But he had a lot of merit besides being the original Louisville Slugger and a great story.

8-Lip Pike
Great numbers even though he was in the twilight of his career during the NA days. Despite the abundance of superstars to vote on in the mid-30s...I believe Pike will eventually make the HOM.

9-George Van Haltren 344 WS
GVH had an interesting journey through the bigs, first as a pitcher then as an outfielder. Van played with Ryan briefly in the 1880s and was a teammate of Ed Williamson and Christy Mathewson at different times in his career. The fact he was traded to Pitt for an HOM caliber player (J. Kelley) is one more reason he deserves election.

10-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.

11-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

12-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

13-Jose Mendez
John Holway says some records credit Mendez with a 44-2 record in 1909. He was considered the best black pitcher of his time. Holway also reports Mendez’s velocity was such that he accidentally killed a teammate during batting practice. Will have to wait awhile.

14-Rube Waddell 240 WS
Despite short career Waddell still makes the A’s all-time top 30 list for Win Shares. Mack signed Rube out of the coast league in 1902. The big cities of the east must’ve been quite a site for Rube.

15- Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
His numbers don’t match up well with the top catchers outside his era but look good in his own time. The Deadball era appears to have been tough on backstops.
   119. Esteban Rivera Posted: September 13, 2004 at 01:20 AM (#850868)
Last couple of years, its either been hard (having to choose from the backlog) or easy (couple of worthy newcomers show up). This year its both. Easy because you know who is a definite. Hard because you can only induct two this year. No matter which two make it this year, I'll feel a little regretful at having to keep the other guys waiting. But, as the saying goes, them's the breaks.

1. Ty Cobb - Peak, career, prime, porterhouse, no matter how you cut it this year, Cobb's the man.

2. Tris Speaker - One of the greatest, if not the greatest, defensive centerfielder ever. Heard he was kinda good on offense.

3. Eddie Collins - I used defense as the tie-breaker between Speaker and Collins, but this is by no means any slight against Collins. Still, Speaker's reputation as the greatest fielder and the fact that I don't think second base and third base had yet shifted on the defensive spectrum cause Collins to be third.

4. John Henry Lloyd - Any other year he would be number one. But when faced with competition from three of the best ever, the uncertainty of what heights he would have reached and for how long leave him at four.

5. Smokey Joe Williams - If the sketch being drawn of Smokey Joe's career is almost Alexander, that is something to behold. Places fifth this year.

6. Cristobal Torriente - An absolute gem of a ballplayer. I will feel very honored to have been a part of giving this gentleman his due when he is inducted into the HOM.

7. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe. Thanks to Kelly in SD's post which cleared up any leftover doubts I had about pushing Welch this high on my ballot.

8. Lip Pike - One of the best players in early baseball. The pre-NA numbers confirm what I have believed about his early career.

9. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the player's league.

10. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

11. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

12. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

13. Stan Coveleski - Starts here. So far what I have seen has me inclined in his favor. How he compares to his contemporaries will decide whether he's in or out.

14. Hughie Jennings - A historical monster for five years.

15. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. However, I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

Pushed off by newcomers but will definitely be back when it clears up:

Bill Monroe
Charley Jones
Roger Bresnahan
Tommy Bond
Heinie Groh

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

George Van Haltren - Consistency but not the best at position.
   120. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 13, 2004 at 04:50 AM (#851136)
Yeah, gotta go along with everybody else; this is a pretty good bunch of guys. I guess we should thank Connie Mack for this; would anyone else have picked up Cobb and Speaker with scandal hanging over them?

Got a little lazy this year about reexamining the lower candidates on the ballot, so they're pretty much in the same order as last year. Won't make a difference.

1. Ty Cobb (new) If you needed someone to get a hit, there's no one in baseball history you'd rather have.

2. Eddie Collins (new) I do believe he's the best 2Bman in baseball history.

3. John Henry Lloyd (new) The comparisons to Wagner are probably a stretch, but you can be #2 and still way ahead of everyone else.

4. Tris Speaker (new) I do kind of agree with people who would take him over Cobb if they needed someone to play for their team, but he's just not quite as good. (And given that I drafted Jamal Lewis in my fantasy league, I'd probably wind up taking Cobb.)

5. Smokey Joe Williams (new) Underappreciated even by Negro League standards, given his numbers.

6. Cristobal Torriente (new) ...of course, at least Joe's IN the Hall of Fame. Another great player.

7. Lip Pike (3) Seems to be among the best 5 or 6 players in baseball for almost a decade, which no one below him on the ballot can say. And I think I'm voting for Dick Allen as well. Made my PHoM in 1919.

8. Heinie Groh (4) I only see Leach as even close to him among 3Bmen. McGraw doesn't have enough career length, Williamson just isn't that great, Cross just played forever at an OK level. Further ahead of Leach on peak than behind him on career; similarly, his offensive advantage is bigger than Leach's defensive. Similar to Childs in a lot of ways, but slightly better.

9. Cupid Childs (5) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is short, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s. Made my HoM in 1932.

10. Jimmy Ryan (6) The new WARP pushes Van Ryan back closer to Griffin and Duffy, but I still think they're a little bit better. Very good players for a reasonably long time, but don't think they were ever great.

11. Bill Monroe (7) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Have him close to Childs, but I'm just less certain he was really good enough to make the HoM.

12. George Van Haltren (8) Behind Ryan, because Ryan's peak is just a little better and I don't think the pitching helps him that much.

13. Jose Mendez (9) I do think he was better than Foster, because I have more trust in how much he was playing outside his peak.

14. Tommy Leach (10) Comparison to Groh shows I've been underrating him some. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter.

(14A Sam Thompson)

15. Stan Coveleski (new) Maybe I listen to WARP too much on pitchers, but there was an excellent post comparing him to Griffith, and he comes out a little ahead in a lot of areas.

Off the ballot

16. Spotswood Poles (11) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good. Should be back soon
(16A Rube Foster)
17. Clark Griffith (13) I don't think he was hugely better during the 90s than the non-HoMers, but he did stay around a lot longer.
18. Hughie Jennings (12) First time ever off the ballot. Not too sure that peak is so important anymore.
19. Ben Taylor (new) Not sure I have a handle on him yet, but he's a little better than Beckley to me for now.
20. Harry Hooper (14) Similar to Wheat in some ways, but not as good. Pretty low OPS+ for a corner OF candidate.
21. Bobby Veach (15) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
22. Mike Griffin (16) Dammit. I love the guy and so does WARP, but doesn't quite match up to the other OFs.
23. Jake Beckley. (17) There is a TON of career value. But when your best 5 years by WARP3 are below Lip Pike, that's a lack of peak.
24. Del Pratt. (18) WARP likes him a LOT more than Win Shares does. More well-rounded than Doyle.
25. Jim McCormick (19) Not that far behind the other 1880s pitchers.
26. Larry Doyle. (20) Seems to be Hornsby lite (very good hitter, lousy fielder).
27. Mickey Welch (21) Still won't put him ahead of McCormick. New WARP hates him! (that's a comment, not an argument)
28. Dobie Moore (18) I do see him as pretty similar to Jennings, but it's a tight ballot.
29. Vic Willis (23) He had a lot of very good years, and might still move up.
30. Pete Browning (24) Hit the tar out of the ball, played defense like he was stuck in a tar pit. (rimshot)
32. Hugh Duffy. (25) Still a step behind the rest of the glut, there's nothing to make him stand out to me.
33. Rube Waddell (27) I don't see what gets people so excited. Strikeouts are nice to look at, but outs are outs
35. Roger Bresnahan. (29) He just wasn't good enough long enough. It was a lousy era for white catchers, it happens.
   121. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 13, 2004 at 12:34 PM (#851485)
1. Ty Cobb (n/e) - even with this field, it's an easy choice.

2. Tris Speaker (n/e) - One of history's most underrated players in my opinion. Just a monster player. Very close call over Collins. In the end, I feel that 2B had the value of 3B today throughout Collins' career, it was an incredible career, but not quite as valuable as it first looks, or as valuable as Speaker's.

3. Eddie Collins (n/e) - see above.

4. Smokey Joe Williams (n/e) - (420-256 conservative estimated record). Just a monster pitcher. At worst the 3rd greatest pitcher of his generation (after Johnson and Alexander). Conservative ranking here.

5. John Lloyd (n/e) - arguably the 2nd greatest shortstop of all-time. Chris Cobb estimates him between 450-490 WS depending on how conservative you want to be with his later years. I feel very comfortable slotting him in here.

6. Cristobal Torriente (n/e) - Chris Cobb projects him around 375 WS, with 5 seasons over 30. Amazing that this is only good enough for 6th place this year . . .

7. Clark Griffith (3) - (231-152 CJ). His aWARP3 is best on the ballot aside from McCormick, and his two best years show as more valuable than McGinnity's (though McGinnity had 4 such years total). I'm having a tougher time with keeping Griffith this high . . . I'll hold off on moving him for a week.

8. Jake Beckley (4) - Very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. Good for 22-25 WS a year for about 13-14 years. That has a lot of value in my opinion. I also believe that 1B defense was more important in his time, and that gets him a subjective nudge forward from where modern methods place him. I see him as more Rafael Palmeiro than Harold Baines.

9. Lip Pike (5) - He was a great hitter. 155 OPS+ do not grow on trees . . . major bump, as his mainstream statistically documented career doesn't include his accomplishments before age 26.

10. Bill Monroe (6) - Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he should be ranked near Pike and Jones.

11. Charley Jones (7) - Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow. Was better than I realized.

12. Mickey Welch (8) - (302-215 CJ). He comes out basically a little below McGinnity, Willis, et al. Throw in some timeline, and he's below them. But Chris J. has mentioned that he was generally matched up against the other teams's best pitchers, so that gives him some bump. He compares better to the top pitchers (Clarkson 299-207 CJ, Radbourn 292-212 CJ, Galvin 361-313 CJ) of his era than I previously thought. I've been convinced that it doesn't make sense to rank them highly and not Welch - and I ranked them highly.

13. Hughie Jennings (9) - Great peak, but it was just 5 years, there's not a lot on the resume besides that. His career number turned out higher than I expected (on the strength of those 5 great seasons), and when you throw in the peak, well, here he is.

14. Heine Groh (10) - Another great peak, but it wasn't as great as Jennings'. Groh has more meat on the bones of his resume, but it was still a short career, and I'm conservatively ranking Jennings higher right now. I don't see how Groh can't rank ahead of Williamson.

15. Stan Coveleski (n/e) - (212-145 CJ) sneaks on the ballot in 15th place. Outstanding pitcher, career reminds me of Mike Mussina's.
   122. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 13, 2004 at 12:36 PM (#851486)
Honorable Mention:

16. George Van Haltren (11) - Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6. He's behind Ryan because of Ryan's higher peak.

17. Dobie Moore (12) - Best I can come up with right now is to rank him slightly behind Jennings. Don't understand his lack of love in 1932 - especially from the peak guys.

18. Jimmy Ryan (13) - Good, not great defensive CF, which is probably why he was eventually shifted to RF. One heckuva hitter though. This is a tight ballot.

19. Ben Taylor (n/e) - Tough ranking for a guy with 325 estimated WS (Chris Cobb), but it's a Beckleyesque career that comes up about 40 WS shy of Beckley.

20. Ed Williamson (14) - I'm really serious about taking a second look at everyone. His career is quite comparable to Jimmy Collins'. Both had a 113 career OPS+, and Williamson's was more OBP driven than Collins'. Both Collins and Williamson were great defensive players, Williamson was actually better, good enough to play about 3 1/2 years as a SS, though he wasn't too good there. Short career makes him tough to rank.

21. Vic Willis (15) - (251-203 CJ) I see very goodness. He's Dennis Martinez compared the guys ahead of him on the ballot being Steve Carlton, Dave Stieb and Tommy John. But the more I look the better he looks.

22. Urban Shocker (16) - (186-118 CJ) Shocker was just 36 when he died, his last season was at 34 in 1927. If he would have been able to hang around for 3 or 4 more years, he probably would have been an easy choice. His worst season was probably 1925, when his support neutral record was 12-12 and he posted a 117 ERA+. A consistently very good to great pitcher from 1919-27. I see him as pretty similar to Mike Mussina actually, maybe a notch below.

23. Spotswood Poles (17) - I9s, with some downward adjustment shows him below Ryan and Van Haltren, above where I figure Cravath/Tiernan, so this is a reasonable starting point. I don't think his peak is enough to move him past Ryan and Van Haltren. Awhile back Jeff M projected Poles at 257 WS.

24. Rube Waddell (18) - (198-138 CJ). Not quite as good as Joss at his best, but he pitched about 2 more seasons, enough to edge him forward.

25. Ed Konetchy (19) - 72.8 aWARP1. WARP loves his defense. Very good player - kind of Hernandezish - more power, less OBP, and overall not as good, but a similar package.

26. Harry Hooper (20) - I can't see any way to put him ahead of Van Haltren or Ryan.

27. Cupid Childs (21) - Now I can see how you could compare him to Doyle and have him ahead - consider me converted . . .

I hit all of the top 10 from 1933 already, but I'll leave my comments regarding Hugh Duffy and Roger Bresnahan. I think they are easily the two most overrated candidates by our electorate.

Duffy, on the rate stats alone barely compares with Ryan and Van Haltren. When you throw in the fact that, 1) his career was several years shorter, and; 2) his second best season was in an awful league (the 1891 AA), and; 3) his best year was in a monster hitter's park in a monster hitter's season (Boston, 1894) - I just don't see how he compares.

Mike Tiernan posted a 138 OPS+ (Duffy 122) in a career that was only a year and a half shorter. In basically the same era too.

Mike Griffin posted a 123 OPS+ (more OBP driven than Duffy as well), playing incredible defensive CF in a career two years shorter. He never had years as big as Duffy did in 1891 or 1894, but he never had years as bad as Duffy did in 1896 or 1899 either.

Those are the type of players Duffy is truly comparable to.

Bresnahan was an incredible player when playing. He just didn't play enough.
   123. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 13, 2004 at 03:12 PM (#851619)
We have 50 ballots so far. We're missing one from jimd, Michael Bass, MichaelD, Max Parkinson, KJOK, James Newburg and Eric Enders.
   124. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: September 13, 2004 at 05:49 PM (#851888)
1. Ty Cobb - Really an easy choice for #1, which says a lot considering the competition.
2. Pop Lloyd - For career value, arguably ranks among the Top 5 players of all time. Peak perhaps not quite as high as Collins', but close enough. Unlike many voters I am not discounting his old-age seasons in the Negro Leagues, since they appear to have been so outstanding.
3. Smoky Joe Williams - Bob Feller, except over a full career of 25+ years? Sounds like this is the right spot for such a player.
4. Eddie Collins - Picking between he and Williams was the hardest choice for me this year. The fact that a player of this caliber ranks fourth is just ridiculous.
5. Tris Speaker - The only player of these Top 5 who cannot claim to have been the best of his era at his position. Still, an incredibly overqualified HOMer.
6. Cristobal Torriente - A fabulous hitter, outstanding defender, and a true franchise player. He's below the other five, but still a slam-dunk HOMer. Towers over the #7 candidate.
7. Jose Mendez - Peak value and excellence against major league opponents.
8. Pete Browning - Unreliable, supposedly a poor defender, and a short career -- but one of the finest hitters who ever lived.
9. Rube Waddell - I like peak guys.
10. Hughie Jennings - Perhaps the quintessential peak candidate; arguably the second- or third-best shortstop of all time for a few years.
11. Spots Poles - A truly outstanding peak combined with a fairly lengthy career gets him this spot on the ballot.
12. Gavy Cravath - Am giving him some credit for minor league play. HR numbers were due mostly to home ballpark, but he was able to take disproportionate advantage of that short porch. His adjusted OPS+ numbers speak for themselves: Offensive environment or no, he was putting tons of runs on the board.
13. Jake Beckley - Palmeiro 100 years earlier, except not quite as good.
14. Bill Monroe - One of several candidates for the title of "Best Negro League 2B Ever"
15. George Van Haltren
16. Lip Pike
17. Larry Doyle
18. Roger Bresnahan
19. Frank Chance
20. Stan Coveleski
21. Heinie Groh
   125. MichaelD Posted: September 13, 2004 at 06:30 PM (#851962)
Waiting to the last minute again.

1. Ty Cobb - Even on such a strong ballot Cobb stands out. He is certainly one of the 10 greatest of all time.

2. Eddie Collins - Best 2nd baseman we've seen so far. This was tough between him and Speaker. I'm not usually that keen on positional adjustments but I think the fact that Speaker came at the same time, makes him just a tad less impressive.

3. Tris Speaker - Not quite Ty Cobb, but still one of the best ever.

4. Pop Lloyd - I am willing to consider the NLers. I also think Lloyd would stand out over almost any player of this era with the exeption of the three above him (and Walter Johnson). That means he is number 4.

5. Smokey Joe Williams - I hope I'm not underating pitchers.

6. Christobal Torriente - Not quite in the same class as the other newbies but I view him similar to Wheat, who was clearly behind Johnson and clearly ahead of everyone else.

Not many of these guys seems that impressive after looking at the top 5.

7. Jimmy Ryan - I'm not sure what else to say. I still think we haven't adequately accounted for the hitting position players of the 1890s.

8. George Van Haltren - He is close to Ryan. He has the superior pitching and the slightly better career, I think overall Ryan's just a tad better.

9. Hugh Duffy - This ballot has a ton of centerfielders. Every time I do a re-analysis, Duffy or Ryan turns out to be slightly in front of the other and it flip-flops each time. Now Ryan has the slight edge.

10. Tommy Leach - Another point towards the CF glut. I guess he is my type of player, lots of career Win Shares. 3b was still a key defensive position while he was playing there, so the defensive Win Shares make sense.

11. Heinie Groh - A player that I suspect will look better here than he does to common fans. Still I don't see him as better than Leach. Yes Groh has the advantage on peak but Leach has the superior career. Groh is one who does better when we look at the stats than history says but so is Leach.

12. Jake Beckley - Hard to ignore his entire career. Even though the peak is not very high, he was still often the best first baseman.

13. Gavvy Cravath - I'm right now giving him a middling bump up for his missed years (about half a full year) but could give him more.

14. Clark Griffith - Barely holds onto a ballot spot. That means the only players not in my PHOM on this ballot are Speaker, Lloyd, Williams, Torriente and Coveleski. All new guys. Pretty impressive ballot.

15. Stan Coveleski - Barely creeps on the ballot. I see him as pretty close to Griffith, but I may be under or over rating him. I'll have some time before it becomes an issue.

Next groups in alphabetical order:

16-18: Burns, Doyle and Hooper.

19-24: Bresnahan, Childs, Cooper, Poles, Tiernan and Williamson

25-30: Chance, Evers, Jennings, Konetchy, Veach and Welch.
   126. Michael Bass Posted: September 13, 2004 at 06:31 PM (#851964)
Sorry I'm so late this week. Had a kidney stone attack, and was zonked out on pain meds late last week/all weekend.

Mainly WARP3, with some Win Shares emphasis to my analysis. OPS+ and RA+ (basically ERA+ with an eye out for high unearned run totals) are also used as a sanity check.

1. Ty Cobb (new) - Even in this group, the clear #1. Best peak, best career.

2. Joe williams (new) - To me, between Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander in value. That edges him into second on my ballot. Really, after Cobb, 2-5 could go in any order.

3. Tris Speaker (new) - Actually edged Cobb on my lesser peak measure. Lands above Collins because of it.

4. Eddie Collins (new) - Probably the greatest second baseman ever. And he's 4th! I actually don't see any inherhant problem in this, in that I think the greatest would-be 2Bs generally play shortstop.

5. John Henry Lloyd (new) - At one point, I thought he would be second. Some questions over the quality of his bat knock him down to here, but no further. Amazing player, and one with a solid argument to be ranked #1 even in this company.

6. Cristobal Torriente (new) - Clearly the #6 player on this ballot, an amazing hitter and a good fielder. Significantly better than Pete Hill (who I liked), only Santop from those NLers who came before would be above him, and even he wouldn't be by much.

7. Hughie Jennings (2) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

8. Heinie Groh (3) - Great player, great peak, position where we could use some inductees.

9. Stan Coveleski (new) - Great pitcher with whom I wasn't even all that familiar. Great peak, obvious HOMer (I assume all of these top 9 except Jennings are going in eventually).

10. Hugh Duffy (4) - Hugh was a strong hitter with a good offensive peak and a hell of a defender. A+ rating from Win Shares, despite playing more corner than center? Sign me up.

11. Mike Griffin (5) - About the same level hitter as Duffy, just not quite as long of a peak. Very nice defender, too, almost entirely in center.

12. Bobby Veach (6) - Similar case to Groh. Peak a little less high, lasted a little longer.

13. Spotswood Poles (8) - A slightly lesser Pete Hill. Very worthy of election.

14. Fielder Jones (9) - I guess I like defense more than the group as a whole, but he had 4 really nice seasons in the midst of a nice career.

15. Jose Mendez (10) - Very similar to Waddell pitching-wise. His hitting moves him to one spot above him.

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Pike - I'm coming around on him. Did hit the ball awfully well. Not sure how much I want to discount baseball in his day.

Van Haltren - Looking a little light on peak for me at the moment. Could work his way back into the mix.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. Would be a terrible choice for election.

Griffith - I think Waddell is the correct long-time ballot pitcher for induction.

Waddell - 16th on my ballot, will be back soon enough. Just pushed off by the mass of new guys.

Welch - Run prevention just isn't there. Still need to look at him again, before we get to the next backlog period (which could be a while).

Childs - Like Waddell, pushed off by the new guys. Little lower, though, so he won't be back immediately.
   127. Max Parkinson Posted: September 13, 2004 at 07:49 PM (#852071)
'34 Ballot - MP HoMers in Bold. Sorry for the lack of comments this week, life sometimes gets in the way...

1. Cobb
2. Collins
3. Lloyd
4. Speaker
5. Williams
6. Jennings (even I won't take fandom too far...)
7. Torriente
8. Hooper
9. Coveleski
10. Pike
11. Veach
12. Griffith
13. Cicotte
14. McCormick
15. Groh

16-20. Shocker, F. Jones, Van Haltren, Mendez, Bond
21-25. Nash, Petway, Beckley, Taylor, Williamson
26-30. Ryan, Cross, Monroe, Whitney, Buffinton
31-35. McGraw, Konetchy, King, Waddell, Moore
36-40. Dauss, Force, Long, Seymour, Ji. Williams
41-45. Childs, Cravath, Duffy, Tenney, Griffin
46-50. Shawkey, Tannehill, Willis, D. White, Breitenstein

Selected Required Comments:

Bresnahan - my objections to him are long-stated. He wasn't any good defensively and didn't play enough at catcher to overcome that. There's not even a drought at the position anymore, we've elected more catchers than 1st basemen or right fielders.

Welch - IMO he wasn't anywhere near the best of his time, and for pitchers I find that the starting point for these rankings is how they rank among their contemporaries (See Marc's comment early in the '35 Discussion thread - I completely agree with his method for pitchers, even if my rankings may differ somewhat).

Other Top 10 returnees have been pushed down by the talent onslaught...
   128. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: September 13, 2004 at 09:20 PM (#852237)
Sorry I'm so late this week. Had a kidney stone attack

As excuses go, that's a heckuva good one. Hope your feeling better.
   129. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 13, 2004 at 09:29 PM (#852249)
As excuses go, that's a heckuva good one. Hope your feeling better.

Same goes for me.
   130. Michael Bass Posted: September 13, 2004 at 09:54 PM (#852280)
Very much so. Thanks guys.
   131. jimd Posted: September 13, 2004 at 11:51 PM (#852407)
Ballot for 1934

First, the dog ate my ballot workup, and then other bad things happened. Seriously, crunch week in work.

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

The greatest players are those who combine a high peak with longevity. However, a player can demonstrate greatness for a shorter period of time and then be unable to follow through with the longevity, which is partly a function of luck (amongst other things such as genetics and discipline). OTOH, a player can demonstrate longevity but not demonstrate "greatness" (no high peak).

Both of these types of players are flawed, but I think both have a place in the HOM, because there are not enough truly great players available to fill the HOM quota. I try to balance the two types, not leaning one way or the other. Although it may seem like my ballot caters to peak players, it only looks that way because the majority of voters here tend to elect most of the good career players (high peak or no) while leaving most of the great-peak/short-career guys behind.

1) T. COBB -- !

2) T. SPEAKER -- !

3) E. COLLINS -- ! (Very close call here 2-4)

4) P. LLOYD -- !

5) S.J. WILLIAMS -- !

6) H. JENNINGS -- Using rolling 5-year peaks for WARP-3, of those eligible, only he can claim to have been the "best player in baseball". All of the others have already been elected or are not yet eligible; elected to my PHOM over a decade ago.

7) C. TORRIENTE -- !

8) J. RYAN -- Here comes the glut. Much better peak than Van Haltren. Best outfielder of the late 1880's; not great after the train wreck.

9) S. KING -- Not likely to go anywhere soon, but this is where he rates. This ballot is very thin.

10) F. JONES -- Reached the top of the OF heap before he walked away. Not enough peak for the peak voters to really get excited about and not enough career for the career voters. Some of each will work on my ballot. The career OF guys took a hit in my system because of the new blood.

11) N. WILLIAMSON -- Need some infielders on this ballot; the best not in either the HOM or PHOM.

12) G. VAN HALTREN -- He and Hooper have the best careers left on the current ballot, now that the really good career players have been inducted. GVH is the Beckley of outfielders, though better, unless Jake deserves more defensive credit than I'm giving (via WARP).

13) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; not great enough long enough.

14) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Deserves votes, though not inclusion (at least yet).

15) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

Just missing the cut are:
16-18) Harry Hooper, Tommy Bond, Herman Long,
19-21) Heinie Groh, Jim Whitney, Jim McCormick,
22-24) Jose Mendez, Gavy Cravath, Hugh Duffy,
25-27) Rube Waddell, Spotswood Poles, Del Pratt,
28-30) Lip Pike, Lave Cross, Clark Griffith,
31-34) Jake Beckley, Tommy Leach, Roy Thomas, Roger Bresnahan
   132. KJOK Posted: September 14, 2004 at 12:15 AM (#852457)
If those in charge will allow it, my late ballot will be up in a few minutes....
   133. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 14, 2004 at 12:18 AM (#852470)
If those in charge will allow it, my late ballot will be up in a few minutes....

Since it won't change anything, I don't think it's a problem.
   134. OCF Posted: September 14, 2004 at 12:18 AM (#852473)
5:00 and 55 ballots cast. A couple of notes:

There's a striking pattern in the first 6 rows and first 6 columns of the tally: For those 6 places, the n'th place candidate got more n'th place votes than anyone else, and the n'th place candidates got more votes for n'th place than for any other place. This pattern established itself early in the voting and persisted to the end. In three of the 6 cases (including, memorably, 6th place) we're talking about a majority rather than just a plurality.

The highest possible consensus score was +30. Actual consensus scores ranged from +13 to +27. The differences between, say, the +21 scores and the +25 scores hardly seem worth commenting on.
   135. DavidFoss Posted: September 14, 2004 at 12:24 AM (#852494)
There's a striking pattern in the first 6 rows and first 6 columns of the tally

Ah-ha! We math geeks would say that the vote matrix is "sparse". Much easier to work with.
   136. KJOK Posted: September 14, 2004 at 12:40 AM (#852570)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers.

1. TY COBB, CF. .781 OWP. 1,078 RCAP! 13,073 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best player between Wagner and Ruth.

2. EDDIE COLLINS, 2B. .701 OWP. 822 RCAP. 12,039 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Have him as 2nd best 2nd baseman behind only Hornsby.

3. TRIS SPEAKER, CF. .748 OWP. 777 RCAP. 11,989 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Have him as 3rd best CF ever behind only Mays and Cobb.

4. POP LLOYD, SS. Approx equiv. 121 OPS+ over estimated equiv. 13,000 PA’s. Comps slightly better than Joe Cronin, which puts him about 5th all-time among all SS’s.

5. SMOKEY JOE WILLIAMS, P. Comps with Pete Alexander, which puts him about 7th all-time among all P’s.

6. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low.

7. PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than Van Haltren or Duffy.

8. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively.

9. STAN COVELESKIE, P. 282 RSAA! 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points. 127 ERA+ in 3,093 Innings.

10. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane/Dickey, except for maybe Santop.

11. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively.

12. RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings.

13. Cristobal Torriente, RF. Comps near Dwight Evans and Enos Slaughter.

14. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

15. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Hack, Alomar, and Sandberg.


BEN TAYLOR, 1B Comps to Ed Konetchy, which won’t make this improved ballot.

HEINIE GROH, 3B. .598 OWP, 216 RCAP, 7,035 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Only Frank Baker was better in 1910’s era.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Estimated batting career close to Jennings, but little evidence that he was quite as good as Jennings defensively.

LARRY DOYLE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times.

LIP PIKE, CF. Perhaps best hitting CF of the 1870’s. Similar to Hack Wilson.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

URBAN SHOCKER, P. 239 RSAA, 172 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, and 124 ER+ in 2,681 innings. Just needed a few more innings or a little better pitching to make ballot.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

JIMMY RYAN, CF/RF. .609 OWP. 205 RCAP. 9,114 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not quite up to top OF hitters, and only average defense won’t move him up.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

SPOTWOOD POLES, CF Estimated 117 OPS+ over 8,331 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Oscar Charleston and Pete Hill the only Negro League contemporary outfielders that were better. Comp somewhere around Cesar Cedeno.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being on ballot.

CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. He’s really not all that far away from McGinnity, but not that far from Silver King either.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

EDDIE CICOTTE, P. 183 RSAA, 209 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 123 ERA+ in 3,223 Innings. Not all that far from McGinnity in value/performance.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. Similar to Smoky Joe Wood. Like Wood, has some really great years early in his career, and like Wood changed positions due to arm problems (age 25 for Wood, 27 for Mendez, OF for Wood, SS for Mendez) and was never really a star player after that. I don’t think his best years were quite as good as Wood’s, and not sure he was really better than teammate Dolph Luque, so he falls short on the ballot.
   137. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 14, 2004 at 12:54 AM (#852619)
Balloting closed.

Cobb easily made the first spot, while Speaker beat Collins by a measly 14 pts.
   138. Howie Menckel Posted: September 14, 2004 at 01:22 AM (#852731)
The Kevin Bacon game, HOMers only, 1856-1928:

Speaker played with Cy Young, who played with Ewing, who played with O'Rourke, who played with Start, who played with Pearce.
   139. DavidFoss Posted: September 14, 2004 at 01:58 AM (#852844)

Same number... a bit inefficent at the end though.
   140. yest Posted: September 14, 2004 at 02:09 AM (#852887)
I'm suprised Cobb, Speaker, and Collins didn't get any boycotts
   141. Howie Menckel Posted: September 14, 2004 at 02:26 AM (#852955)
Well, even a 5 G minimum would knock out David Foss's link.

Speaker played 31 games with Young in 1908.

Speaker also links with Al Simmons. IF Kell measures up as a HOMer, he carries you to Brooks Robinson, who carries you to Eddie Murray, who carries you to Piazza, Ripken, R Alomar, etc..
   142. OCF Posted: September 14, 2004 at 05:26 AM (#853452)
56 voters, which is the most ever. Since Cobb was near-unanimous 1st (and not boycotted), Cobb earned the highest vote total ever. There were no new voters. All 54 of the 1933 voters returned in 1934, and RMc and Sean M returned to voting. RMc has voted 3 times in the last 12 years (1927, 1930, and 1934). On each of those occasions, he recorded the single highest consensus score.

The average consensus score was 22.0, well above my previous recorded high of 15.8 in 1923. 33 of the 56 voters had scores ranging from 20 to 24. If you think you're in that cluster somewhere, you probably are. The lowest consensus score (most eccentric) ballot belongs to yest, whose score wound up rounding to +12 (12.41). yest was the only voter to place Williams below 6th (12th in his case) and the only voter to leave Torriente off the ballot.
   143. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 14, 2004 at 02:52 PM (#853851)
If anybody has ballot results, please send them to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) so I can post the election results thread today. Thanks!
   144. ronw Posted: September 14, 2004 at 03:25 PM (#853898)
Here you go:

RK   LY  Player               PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 1  n/e  Ty Cobb             1334   56  52  3     1                                 
 2  n/e  Tris Speaker        1102   56   1 22 17 10  6                              
 3  n/e  Eddie Collins       1088   56   2 17 23 11  3                              
 4  n/e  Pop Lloyd           1032   56   1 13  8 21 13                              
 5  n/e  Smokey Joe Williams  923   56      1  8 13 31  2                 1         
 6  n/e  Christobal Torriente 787   55               2 38  5  5  1  1  1  1  1      
 7    3  Heinie Groh          427   41                     5  5  7  3  6  5  4  2  4
 8  n/e  Stan Coveleski       369   37                  1  3  4  6  2  4  5  4  1  7
 9    6  Jake Beckley         337   31                  2  6  6  3        5  4  2  3
10    4  Lip Pike             300   26                  2  6  3  3  2  6     1  3   
11    5  George Van Haltren   293   27                  1  5  4  3  4     4  1  2  3
12    9  Rube Waddell         268   25                     3  3  4  6  1  3  2  2  1
13    7  Clark Griffith       266   26                     3  2  4  4  4  1  3  3  2
14   10  Mickey Welch         264   23               1  4  4  2  1  2  2  2  1  2  2
15    8  Hughie Jennings      258   24                  3  2  3  2  4  2  1  3  1  3
16   14  Pete Browning        211   18                  1  4  4  3  2     1  1  1  1
17   15  Jimmy Ryan           189   19                     1  3  2  2  4  1  2  1  3
18   11  Cupid Childs         184   20                  1  1     2  2  3  3  1  2  5
19   12  Hugh Duffy           179   19                     2  1  3  1     3  3  4  2
20   13  Roger Bresnahan      162   19                        1  1  2  2  2  3  5  3
21   17  Tommy Leach          133   14                        1  2  3     3  2  2  1
22   16  Jose Mendez          128   14                     1     3  2        4     4
23   18  Bill Monroe           99   11                     1        2  1  2  1  3  1
24  n/e  Ben Taylor            87   10                              2  2  1  2  2  1
25   19  Charley Jones         86    8                     1  2     1  2  1        1
26   22  Harry Hooper          83    8                        1  2  1  2     1  1   
27   20  Larry Doyle           73    6                     2  1  1  1     1         
28   21  Spotswood Poles       67    7                        2        1  1  1  2   
29   24  Addie Joss            57    6                           1  2  1        1  1
30   28  John McGraw           52    5                  1           1  1  1     1   
31   23  Bobby Veach           50    6                                 2  1  1  1  1
32   29  Fielder Jones         49    5                     1        2           1  1
33   30  Gavy Cravath          48    5                              1  2  1  1      
34   25  Ed Cicotte            46    5                           1        2  2      
35   26  Frank Chance          45    5                        1        1  1     1  1
36   31  Ed Williamson         32    4                                 1     1  2   
37   27  Urban Shocker         28    4                                       1  2  1
38   33  Vic Willis            25    3                                 1     1  1   
39   35  Lave Cross            23    2                        1        1            
40   32  George J. Burns       19    3                                          1  2
41T  39  Wilbur Cooper         19    2                        1                    1
41T  36  Ed Konetchy           19    2                                 1  1         
43   41  Ray Schalk            15    2                                       1  1   
44   45T Silver King           12    1                           1                  
45   45T Donie Bush            11    1                              1               
46T  38  Tommy Bond            10    1                                 1            
46T  37  Mike Griffin          10    1                                 1            
48T  40  Mike Tiernan           9    1                                    1         
48T  51  Tom York               9    1                                    1         
50T  42  Fred Dunlap            8    1                                       1      
50T  48  Duke Farrell           8    1                                       1      
50T  53T Ross Youngs            8    1                                       1      
53T  52  John Donaldson         7    1                                          1   
53T  53T Sam Leever             7    1                                          1   
53T  43  Jim McCormick          7    1                                          1   
56   44  Tony Mullane           6    1                                             1
Dropped out: Moore (34); Pratt (47); Fournier (49T); Long (49T); Petway (55);
Daubert (56T); Mathews (56T); Tinker (56T)
   145. DavidFoss Posted: September 14, 2004 at 03:35 PM (#853913)
Thanks Ron!

Yup, that's quite a sparse vote matrix.

Lots of jumbling in the 9-15 slots, too. Those may jumble back somewhat as the 16-17th rankings become votes again.

8 people dropped out, too. Probably a record.
   146. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 14, 2004 at 03:59 PM (#853955)
8 people dropped out, too. Probably a record.

It also happened in '99, David.
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