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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, September 20, 2004

1935 Ballot

Max Carey and Carl Mays are the viable new candidates for the Hall of Merit this “year.” They also will be on the sidelines rooting for two of the carryover studs from the “year” before (Eddie Collins, John Henry Lloyd and Smokey Joe Williams) because they won’t be making it this “year.”

Other returnees include Cristobal Torriente, Heinie Groh, Stan Coveleski, Lip Pike, Jake Beckley, George Van Haltren and Rube Waddell.

Robin! To the Batcave!

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 20, 2004 at 01:52 PM | 125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 20, 2004 at 02:13 PM (#864504)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).




1) Eddie Collins-2B (1): Take 2! :-) Dominated the 1910s at second and has the greatest career value at that position. Best major league second baseman for 1909, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, close in 1918, 1919 and 1920. Best AL second baseman for 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925 and 1926.

2) John Henry Lloyd-SS/2B/1B: I don't think he was as good as Wagner, but El Cuchara for second greatest? I'd have to take him over Vaughan. Easily the greatest shortstop of the 1910s.

"3) Smokey Joe Williams-P (5): I think he was slightly below Alexander. That means HoMer to me.

4) Cupid Childs-2B (6): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

5) Heinie Groh-3B (7): Best third baseman of his era not name Frank Baker. Near the top of his position for total WS and WS per Games. Terrific hitting (second best at his position in major league history to date) and fielding for his position. Like Childs, many years as the best at his position, yet still had a long career for someone at his position. He belongs. Best major league third baseman for 1915, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920 and 1924.

6) Stan Coveleski-P (n/e): I screwed up last election by not including him. Of course, he had no chance anyway. :-)

7) Cristobal Torriente-CF/LF/RF/P (8): This guy was no where near being the best centerfielder of his time, but that tells you more about Cobb and Speaker than it does about Torriente. Great bat and glove.

8) Lip Pike-CF/RF/2B (9): Considered the fastest man of his time. Major star prior to the NA. Two things hold him back somewhat: durability and how good of a player he was at his position compared to his competition pre-NA (Pearce is not affected as much by the latter in my analysis, obviously). Best major league rightfielder for 1871 and 1873. Best major league centerfielder for 1874-1876.

9) Charley Jones-LF/CF (10): Like York below, he was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

10) Vic Willis-P (11): Why does this man receive such little respect? Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

11) Tom York-LF (12): I know some here looking at his OPS+ must be saying to themselves "Murph has him over guys like Sheckard?!?" Fair question, but, IMO, York was a more dominating player at his position than Sheckard was during his time. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today) deserves a ballot spot.Best leftfielder of the 1870s. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).

12) Jake Beckley-1B (13): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

13) Mickey Welch-P (14): I have to admit that the 1880s had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

14) Rube Waddell-P (15): If he had been a little more serious and quit the horse playing... Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.

15)Jose Mendez-P (n/e): Back on my ballot. Looks a lot like Waddell quality-wise, so I'll place him right here. Very impressive player.

Hey, I don't have to make any comments for a missing top-ten returnee for the very first time! They're all on my ballot! Woo-hoo! :-)


Of the newbies, Mays is close, but I'm not really sold on Carey.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: September 20, 2004 at 02:23 PM (#864513)
Mays is a nice player, boosted by his hitting just above the very comparable Coveleski. Carey is exactly the sort of player overrated by WS (Lave Cross was another, Van H is to some extent another) – nearly Beckley’s length of career, but without anything like Beckley’s quality.

1. (N/A-2) Eddie Collins. He and not Shoeless Joe was the main reason the Black Sox were rightly prohibitive favorites for the ’19 Series.

2. (N/A-4) Smokey Joe Williams Striking out 20 of the 1917 Giants, who won the National League is damn impressive – Clemens’ records weren’t against that level of competition. Level with Matty, behind Alexander sounds about right, even with the putative 400 wins (or 399 per Chris Cobb)

3. (N/A-5) John Henry Lloyd Don’t see him as Top 10 all-time, but almost certainly top 50. I9 figures inflated, though; Chris Cobb’s arguments look to me persuasive, he’s not as good as Williams.

4. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6) Jake Beckley Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (8 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (5 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707 not as good as outfielder glut - but much of his career was played in the dead ball ‘00s, and 1B was a marginally more important fielding position than outfielder then. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

5. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7) Mickey Welch 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the short career dead ball era pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was better than the 00s pitchers, all of whom were pitching in favorable conditions, none of whom (other than Young and Matty) got near 300 wins.

6. (N/A-8) Cristobal Torriente. I’m satisfied he was a great player and HOM-worthy, but probably the lower half of the HOM. His I9 translations beat Beckley/Welch, but not by much and I think I9’s too high. But everybody down to about 11-12 on this ballot is easily HOM-worthy, in my view.

7. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) By a significant margin the best pitcher on the current ballot – only loses to Welch on longevity.

8. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

9. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: September 20, 2004 at 02:25 PM (#864517)
10. (N/A-12-10-12) Sam Leever 194-100 is more career than 1720 hits, so Leever, Mays and Covaleski go above Childs and Groh. That and an ERA+ of 123 also get him above Van Haltren and Ryan, there being no outfielder dearth. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Much better ERA+ than Tannehill, and W/L pct close to record territory. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

11. Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above Coveleski

12. (N/A-13) Stan Coveleski More wins than Leever and a similar ERA+, but started at the normal time, and less W/L pct. One of the best of his era, and will rank much higher in years to come.

13. (N/A-8-7-8-14) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B, and I’ve been undervaluing him, significantly.

14. (N/A-9-15) Heinie Groh Close to a clone of Childs, so fits here. 1774 hits, OPS+118, TB+BB/PA .431, TB+BB/Outs .666 (all 3 below Childs). 3B in 10s probably about equivalent to 2B in 90s.

15. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

17. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so no higher than the middle of this weak ballot. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

18. (N/A-11-14-N/A)Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134 and moves up owing to pitcher dearth, although his unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

19. (N/A-13-15-N/A) Vic Willis Moved up owing to pitcher dearth 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

20. (9-12-12-11-9-10-10-13-12-15-14-N/A-12-13-11-13-13-15-N/A) Lip Pike - Like Start, give some credit for missing 1860s. However, normalize 1871-78 season by season and he gets 1,592 hits after 26 - not quite an obvious HOM-er. 4 “normalized 200-hit” seasons, but only just, whereas Meyerle’s 1871 peak normalizes to 320 (obviously a random fluctuation, but in the right direction!)TB+BB/PA .478, TB+BB/Outs .713.

21. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike. Lower than Pike because not a huge pre-’71 career. Back in later 30s, hopefully.

22. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
23. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
24. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
25. Ben Taylor
26. Deacon McGuire
27. Tony Mullane
28. Jim McCormick
29. Max Carey. More hits than Hooper, lower OPS+ (only 107, though that’s lowered by a long decline). TB+BB/PA .433, TB+BB/Outs .658 very feeble, and it’s post-the real deadball era. SBs only add a little, as he was only about 70%-75%successful.
30. Spotswood Poles.
31. Larry Doyle
32. Roger Bresnahan.
33. Harry Hooper.
34. Jules Thomas.
35. Wilbur Cooper
36. Bruce Petway.
37. Jack Clements
38. Bill Monroe
39. Jose Mendez
40. Chief Bender
41. Ed Konetchy
42. Hughie Jennings Not a historic peak, and a very short career.
43. Jesse Tannehill
44. Bobby Veach
45. Tommy Leach
46. Lave Cross
47. Tom York
   4. SWW Posted: September 20, 2004 at 02:27 PM (#864519)
1935 Ballot
My first. This will all seem very familiar to anyone who read my provisional ballot on the discussion thread. Anyway, thanks for letting me in to the party, and here we go.

1) Edward Trowbridge Collins
I’ll wager that 70 years from now, he’ll still be considered one of the best second basemen ever. Only Cobb and Speaker kept him out last year.
2) John Henry Lloyd - “Pop”
The NBJHA argues Lloyd might be the best ever at shortstop. I’m not sure if he was better than Wagner, but he had an exceptionally long career for the position, which is one of many examples of his quality. Plus, when the original Negro Leagues committee was handing out plaques, Lloyd was the only candidate to come from the beginning of the century. If such short memories remembered Lloyd, he must have been damn good.
3) Joseph Williams – “Smokey Joe”
By all accounts, the pre-eminent pitcher of the early Negro Leagues. May end up being one of the best players who has to wait for his third ballot to get elected.
4) Cristobal Torriente
Even though there’s a drop-off between 3 & 4, Torriente is still leagues ahead of the returning candidates.
5) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Jake”
A lot of hits. James Vail’s standard deviation scores indicate he performed significantly better than many of his Cooperstown brethren, both in era and position. I think the nature of his career may make him seem a less appealing candidate than is warranted.
6) Max George Carey
There are a lot of center fielders up for consideration, but he just stands out. Particularly the combination of career and prime, which I enjoy.
7) Henry Knight Groh – “Heinie”
Considering how rare it seems to be to have someone truly excel at third base in the past couple decades, I’m inclined to give him an extra push. Especially compared to…
8) Thomas William Leach – “Tommy”
If he’d stayed at third, his numbers would probably give him an edge over Groh. But right now, the split makes me place him here.
9) Hugh Duffy
I see Mr. Dimino’s point, but I’m not ready to reject Duffy’s success out of hand, particularly the Triple Crown season. I mean, he made success in the surroundings he was given, dominant success. I’ll research further, but this is where I see him right now.
10) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
I need to keep better track of my research, but some recent book on player rankings made a very convincing argument that he was significantly underrated among second basemen. He’s no Collins, mind you.
11) Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
I prefer career candidates, but right now I’m convinced that his peak is sufficiently strong enough to merit placing him here. And I'm slowly getting over the fact that his nickname puts me in a mind to shake it like a Polaroid picture.
12) Elwood DeMoss – “Bingo”
I really thought he would do much better than this. I ranked him ahead of Bill Monroe primarily because of the stronger competition he faced. As befits the subjective nature of his candidacy, this is the pick I feel least solid about.
13) Harry Bartholomew Hooper
I like him a lot more than most seem to. He scores as the best of the eligible right fielders, although he probably won’t look so good when guys like Heilmann and Cuyler start appearing. Oh, and that Ruth fellow.
14) Roger Philip Bresnahan
I had him much higher due to his position, but a recent post – I think from either Howie or Max – made the very cogent argument that considering the remarkable skill of the Negro League catchers, it was ludicrous to consider Bresnahan as one of the best catchers of the day. He has been dropping steadily in my estimation, and may drop further.
15) Michael Francis Welch – “Smiling Mickey”
I’ve been going back on forth on him. I’ve decided to include him at this time, because pitching is poorly represented on my ballot, and his WS and grey ink place him way above the other contenders. And the wins. That’s a lot of wins for any era.

Other Top 10 Finishers:
Lipman Emanuel Pike
Just don’t know what to do with Lip. Most of his numbers are guesswork, but the numbers we have are quite good. Doesn’t have the pioneering skills that favored a Dickey Pearce or a Joe Start. For now, I have to err on the side of caution.
Stanley Anthony Coveleski
Numbers strike me as similar to Rube Waddell, and Rube had a better peak. Part of a cluster of pitchers who strike me as Really Good (including Mays, Griffith, and Mendez) without being especially Meritorious.
   5. Daryn Posted: September 20, 2004 at 03:00 PM (#864540)
Ballot -- I kind of like Mays, but haven't been ful1y convinced. If this were the Hall of Fame ballot-style I'd have only 9 players on my ballot -- the rest are filler.

1. Lloyd -- I think 600 Win Shares is about right. He could be below Collins, but I think there is more of a chance he compares to Cobb and Ruth (inner-inner circle).

2. Williams – I believe he would have had 350+ wins in the majors, and that puts him here.

3. Collins – One of the top 3 second basemen of all time.

4. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data is helping Welch – those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe.

5. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Baseballreality.com has him as the best first baseman in baseball for a long time. HoMers Crawford and Wheat are two of his three most similars.

6. Cristobal Torriente – nice ball player – maybe a little worse than Clemente will be.

7. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor.

8. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

9. Lip Pike – 4 monster seasons, 4 more not too bad, plus 4 undocumented.

10. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. That being said, he is barely better than what is now a 10 person pitching glut.

11. Cupid Childs – nice obp.

12. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

13. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.

14. Bill Munroe – I think he was pretty good. Any blackball player that is even talked about as among the best 70 years later is pretty good. I’ll take McGraw’s word for it.

15. Heinie Groh – hard for me to analyze – I know he is not better than Leach in my mind and he is definitely better than the rest of the thirdbasemen. He could go up or down.

16. Stan Coveleski – I can’t really see a huge difference between Waddell (8) and Shocker (mid-30s). So Coveleski is somewhere in between. I really wish someone could do an analysis of the differences between the eligible pitchers who have between 190 and 215 wins. I can’t tell them apart without a program. Mays could be in this spot too.

17. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right.

18. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. Could be as low as 35th.

19. Max Carey – I never thought 350 Win Shares could rank so low, but I don’t think he is much better than Van Haltren.

20. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

21. Spotswood Poles – Van Haltren seems like a good comp.

22. Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs.

23. Hugh Duffy – 10 strong seasons, good black ink.

24 and 25. Veach and Hooper – I don’t think they will make my ballot. But if one of them does I may defer to Hooper’s 321 Win Shares and 2500 hits.

26. Ben Taylor – Starting him low. I have him somewhere between here and Monroe.

27. Jennings – he may get more consideration from me a few decades from now, when Koufax starts to exist. But he was no Koufax, being a righthanded shortstop and all.

28. Dobie Moore – about here; also could be as high as Monroe – I don’t have a very good handle on the second tier blackballers.

29. Gavvy Cravath – I’m not sure how to treat his non-ML time, but I do think one of the purposes of the HoM is to take into account great achievers outside the majors. Baker Bowl issues keep him here.

30. Konetchy – 287 Win Shares, but nothing really impressive on his resume, particularly for a firstbaseman. Belongs in the Hall of the Very Good.

31. Larry Doyle – not a bad hitter for a second baseman and it wasn’t a particularly strong decade for NL second sackers.

Somewhere between 16 and 40. McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin -- pitcher glut; any of these guys could make my ballot if it ever has fewer than 4 pitchers on it; not that I have an actual quota.

Next in line, in no order, but I’d be very reluctant to but them on a ballot -- Milan, Burns, Daubert, Pratt, Gardner, Donaldson, Petway, Evers, Tiernan, Tinker, Jennings, Williamson, Meyerle, White, Thomas, Cross and Chance.
   6. OCF Posted: September 20, 2004 at 03:41 PM (#864567)
1935 ballot.
1. Eddie Collins (----, 2) Lajoie wasn't exactly a marginal or questionable choice for us, and Collins was clearly better than Lajoie.
2. Smokey Joe Williams (----, 4) I'd put Alexander ahead of him, but that's more about Alexander than about Williams. Of course he belongs in the HoM.
3. John Henry Lloyd (----, 5) A great, great player - but an A or A- hitter, not an A+ like Wagner or Collins. Obviously belongs in the HoM.
4. Cristobal Torriente (----, 6) Better than the outfield backlog.
5. George Van Haltren (2, 1, 2, 3, 7) As "peakless" careers go, he's got substantially more offensive peak than the likes of Beckley or Hooper. Not much pitching value (and it was a whole lot easier to be a pitcher-hitter before 1893 than after), but what little pitching there is serves as a tiebreaker among similar candidates.
6. Jimmy Ryan (3, 2, 3, 4, 8) Nearly indistinguishable from Van Haltren. 27th year on my ballot.
7. Larry Doyle (5, 3, 4, 5, 9) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
8. Stanislaus Kowalewski (----, 10). The best of the 3000-inning pitchers, other than maybe Vance. Had an off year in 1924, but a big contributor to the Senators' 1925 pennant.
9. Heinie Groh (---, 6, 11) This may be too high, but was an MVP candidate more than once.
10. Hugh Duffy (4, 4, 5, 7, 12) 29th year on my ballot.
11. Rube Waddell (6, 5, 6, 8, 13) The best one left from his generation, and I have him ahead of Griffith - but he's going to lose ground to a new generation of pitchers, of whom Coveleski is only the first.
12. Maximilian Carnarius (new) The Beckley of oufielders. The dominant base stealer of his times. Maybe if we were to elect Carey, he'd be sort of a precedent for Brock? (OK, not the same position or the same defense.)
13. Roger Bresnahan (8, 6, 7, 9, 14) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
14. Jake Beckley (10, 11, 11, 10, 15) No peak, long career. But still more peak than Hooper.
15. Gavy Cravath (9, 7, 8, 11, 16) A big offensive peak. Yes, he took unique advantage of his park, but real wins resulted from that. Seriously lacking in bulk unless you also consider his work in Minneapolis.
16. Jose Mendez (--, 9, 12, 17) He'll be back on my ballot in time.
17. Frank Chance (11, 10, 12, 13, 18) I could have him higher; huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
18. Ben Taylor (----, 19)
19. Mickey Welch (7, 8, 10, 14, 20) 300 wins, but the 80's are already well-represented.
20. George J. Burns (-, 11, 13, 15, 21) A better leadoff hitter than Carey, but didn't last as long.
21. Vic Willis (12, 12, 14, 16, 22) I could reasonably have him right up there with Waddell.
22. Jack Fournier (---, 17, 23) Matches up well with Cravath. Less defense, a less-developed minor league back story - but he could mash.
23. Tommy Leach (---, 18, 24) The candidacy of Groh throws some relief on his case - I think I've been underrating him.
24. Johnny Evers (16, 20, 24, 19, 25) Him, too.
25. Hughie Jennings (20, 22, 26, 25, -) To his supporters, the ultimate peak candidate. I've hesitated with him for several reasons: only 5 good years, I don't 100% believe in the fielding stats, and a little bit of prejudice in that I don't like the brand of baseball he represents. But his supporters may have a case.
NR. Lip Pike. (-----) I've never voted for him. Call it a timeline, but there's a lot not to trust about NA statistics, with the unbalanced schedules, the uneven competition, and the small samples. Reputedly the fastest man in the game. The speed shows in his triples and HR, but he didn't score an unusual number of runs.
NR. Carl Mays (new) The only major league player to kill a man in a game. There's some chance he will still be on some people's ballots when it's time to vote for Willie. My system gives him an equivalent record of 189-146. This doesn't account for either his good hitting or his good defensive support. Perhaps a good match for Shawkey; not too far behind Cicotte. There are arguments for each of these three to be in my top 25, but better arguments for Shocker and Griffith. Next week I reexamine my pitchers.
NR. Bingo DeMoss (new) Has the buzz, but I pay attention to our own Negro League experts. The pithiest of their comments was "couldn't hit." I didn't see anyone refute that.
NR. Ken Williams (new) A nice half of a career, but we can say that about too many outfielders: Youngs, Donlin, Stone, and so on. Not enough PCL data to bring him onto the ballot.
   7. Rusty Priske Posted: September 20, 2004 at 04:31 PM (#864633)
1. Pop Lloyd (2,x,x)

I had him getting in ahead of Speaker, so he is an easy #1 for me.

2. Eddie Collins (5,x,x)

I had him as the 'weakest' of the five last year, though that is not much of an insult with this group. However, I have bumped him ahead of Williams this year. It doesn't matter so much as they will all get in.

3. Smokey Joe Williams (4,x,x)

See Collins.

4. Max Carey (new)

Another new guy to bump GVH down a notch. :(

5. George Van Haltren (6,3,1)

One day, George, one day...

6. Mickey Welch (8,5,4)

Somewhat underrated.

7. Jake Beckley (7,4,5)

Ditto.

8. Cristobel Torriente (12,x,x)

Moves up a little, but he isn't the sure thing that the other newbies are.

9. Lip Pike (9,6,6)

Hangs around.

10. Jimmy Ryan (11,8,7)

From here down, I doubt they will ever get in, even though some should, imo.

11. Harry Hooper (14,10,10)

12. Tommy Leach (10,7,8)

13. Hugh Duffy (13,9,11)

14. Heinie Groh (15,x,x)

15. Bill Monroe (x,12,13)

Two inductees with only one top new candidate means Monroe sneaks back on.

16-20. Childs, Griffith, Powell, Moore, Poles
21-25. Doyle, F.Jones, Mullane, White, Willis
26-30. Gleason, McCormick, G.J.Burns, Cross, DeMoss
   8. ronw Posted: September 20, 2004 at 05:06 PM (#864682)
1935 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. I'll gladly incorporate WARP when they tell me how they reach their numbers.)

1. Pop Lloyd Subjective fit here, but the only “best player ever” candidate on the ballot. PHOM 1934.

2. Eddie Collins Best 2B ever, but rarely viewed as such. MVP candidate 1909-1917, 1919-1920, All-Star candidate 1918, 1921-1926 (18 HOM seasons, partial WWI credit). PHOM 1935 (with Speaker)

3. Joe Williams Another subjective placement, but 1-3 are essentially equal. I guess it’s a nice fit that outfielders went first, followed by the infielders, and next year, the pitchers.

4. Christobal Torriente Big gap between him and below.

5. George Van Haltren Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

6. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters, but I’m a career/prime man. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

7. Max Carey Joins the long career, low-peak glut. MVP Candidate 1922-1923, All-Star candidate 1912-1918, 1920-1921, 1924-1925 (13 HOM seasons)

8. Jimmy Ryan My system likes Jimmy about as much as Van Haltren and Sheckard. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

9.Ben Taylor Ben’ lengthy, solid career belongs with the long career, low-peak glut.

10. Harry Hooper At the bottom of the long career, low-peak glut, which now takes up most of my ballot. MVP candidate 1918, All-Star candidate 1910-1917, 1919-20, 1922, 1924. (13 HOM seasons) PHOM 1931.

11. Heinie Groh - A rare infielder sighting on my ballot. Splits the long career, low-peak guys from the mid-length career, low-peak guys. MVP candidate 1917-1919. All-Star candidate 1914-1916, 1920-21, 1923-24. (10 HOM seasons).

12. Hugh Duffy At the top of the mid-career, low peak glut, ahead of guys like Mike Griffin, Fielder Jones, Charley Jones, George J. Burns etc. MVP candidate 1893-1894, All-Star candidate 1889-1892, 1895-1899. (11 HOM seasons)

13. Mickey Welch Solid pitcher is losing his luster as more 1880’s contemporaries join the HOM. With the lack of 1890’s quality, I think he still rates here. MVP candidate 1884-1885, All-Star candidate 1880-81, 1883, 1886-1889 (9 HOM seasons)

14. Tony Mullane I still don’t see much between Welch and Mullane. I know this puts me in the minority. MVP candidate 1882-1884, All-Star candidate 1886-1893 (11 HOM seasons)

15. Stan Coveleski Had just enough to squeak on the ballot. MVP Candidate 1917, 1918, 1920, All-Star candidate 1919, 1921-1923, 1925-1926 (9 HOM seasons)

MISSING OUT, in no particular order anymore.

Lip Pike – Would probably be in my PHOM if we started the election earlier. MVP candidate 1876 All-star candidate 1871-75, 1877-78. (7 HOM seasons)

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown or perhaps even Waddell or Coveleski. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)

Rube Waddell - Fun man who needed to play longer. MVP candidate 1902, 1905. All-Star candidate 1901, 1903-1904, 1906-1908. (8 HOM seasons).

Cupid Childs – Not enough career, but a fine player. MVP candidate 1890. All-Star candidate 1891-1898. (9 HOM seasons).
   9. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: September 20, 2004 at 07:00 PM (#864920)
1. Pop Lloyd - The second-best shortstop ever, by a comfortable margin. A lesser peak than Wagner, but probably greater career value. Vaughan, Ripken, Wells, and (maybe) A-Rod can duke it out for third place. Ranked #2 on my 1934 ballot.

2. Smoky Joe Williams - Ranked #3 on my 1934 ballot. In this election, as last time, choosing between Williams and Collins was my toughest decision. Williams seems like Bob Feller with a much longer career. It's almost a coin flip, really.

3. Eddie Collins - Possibly the greatest 2B ever, although Hornsby or Morgan might have something to say about that. Ranked a very close 4th on my 1934 ballot.

4. Cristóbal Torriente - Great hitter, outstanding defender, HOMer a couple of years from now.

5. Pete Browning - Unreliable, supposedly a poor defender, and a short career -- but one of the finest hitters who ever lived.

6. José Méndez - Peak value and excellence against major league competition. I've bumped him down one spot on my ballot, and may still be overrating him. Hero of the 1924 World Series. (1.42 ERA in 4 games)

7. Rube Waddell - I like peak guys. (And crazy guys.)

8. Hughie Jennings - See comment for #7.

9. Spots Poles - Outstanding peak combined with a moderately lengthy career gets him this spot on the ballot. A truly dominant player with the Lincoln Giants for a time. Gets small amount of credit for missed time due to WWI. (Won 5 Battle Stars and a Purple Heart in France.)

10. Gavy Cravath - Am giving him some credit for minor league play. A creature of his home ballpark, but he was able to take advantage of that short porch like nobody else could, resulting in many real wins for his team.

11. Bingo DeMoss - Ranks lower than I originally thought he would. Batting stats not overly impressive; I'm relying to a certain extent on anecdotal stories of his defensive prowess, admittedly a risky thing to do. A master of "small-ball" in an era when such skills were more valuable than they are today.

12. Max Carey - Never a great hitter, but did enough other things well to make the ballot. 700+ steals with a phenomenal percentage, especially considering the era. Towered over basestealers of his day to the same degree that Bonds towers over today's hitters. Similar to Poles in both playing style and value, but ranks lower due to a lesser peak.

13. Jake Beckley - Keeps hanging around the bottom of my ballot, to the delight of many, I'm sure.

14. Bill Monroe - "Idol of all the ladies," according to one contemporary report. A better hitter than DeMoss, but difficult to tell whether he was a better player. This is my best guess.

15. George Van Haltren - Similar, but inferior to, Carey.

----ALSO RECEIVING CONSIDERATION----
16. Lip Pike
17. Larry Doyle
18. Stan Coveleski
19. Roger Bresnahan
20. Carl Mays
21. Frank Chance
22. Heinie Groh
   10. sunnyday2 Posted: September 20, 2004 at 07:09 PM (#864932)
1935 ballot

1. Jimmy Collins (was #2, PHoM 1935). Hit .333 in 11,500 PA with 109 defensive WS.

2. Smokey Joe Williams (4, 1935). I've seen MLEs from 330 to 470. I agree he's in there somewhere, though I would say 330-350 myself, below Pete and Matty but ahead of Eddie Plank. Still goes here.

3. Pop Lloyd (5, 1936). Now don't get me wrong. Pop is a HoMer, it's just a question of '34-'35 or '36. But those who have him ahead of Eddie Collins should review Chris Cobb's post #81 in the Pop Lloyd thread. Eddie hit .333 in 11,500 PAs. I9s projects Pop to .324 in 13.,000 MLEs. Now considering the position differential, I can see Pop ahead on that basis.

The problem with that is that Pop actually hit about .320 against the best competition available--i.e. bona fide NeL teams and Cubans. I think Chris is correct--that projects to .285-.290 MLE. And his legendary .586 BA at age 45 is just that. It didn't happen. So, no way he collects those 13,000 PAs at that rate.

Still a HoMer--even an inner-circle HoMer--but more like Dave Bancroft (with an extra 25 percent longevity) than Hans Wagner.

4. Hughie Jennings (6, 1927). Still the 2nd best peak of any eligible MLer.

5. Heinie Groh (7, 1933). 2nd best eligible 3B to date, and probably better (though I haven't done the head-to-head) than that new guy Pie.

6. Cristobal Torriente (8, 1937).
7. Lip Pike (13, 1928). Two subjective placements from the CF glut. Could john-kerry (i.e. flip-flop) them either way.

8. Charlie Jones (15, 1921). Best of the pure 19C hitters still lurking, though I could j-k (f-f) him, too, with Pete Browning.

9. Max Carey (new). OK offensively (pretty much the same average as Pop Lloyd's MLE), but flat-out off the charts defensively and as a base-runner. Not to be confused with Earl Combs.

10. Tommy Bond (11, 1929). Massive value, whatever the circumstances.

11. Rube Waddell (10, 1931).
12. Jose Mendez (9). Another pair that seems to f-f every year.

13. Cupid Childs (12, 1925).
14. Ed Williamson (14, 1924). These two didn't even drop off my ballot in 1934. That makes him the real deal. Anybody who takes Ruth and McGraw's comments about Lloyd as the final word, take a look at Ed. Some nice endorsements of his own.

15. Stan Coveleski (new). We have been pretty hard on second tier pitchers. Me, too. The new test case.

Drops off: none.

Required: Beckley (#51)--no peak. Van Haltren (#28)--made my ballot in 1909-10.

16-20. Browning, Doyle, Duffy, Griffith, Monroe.
21-25. Dunlap, Joss, Poles, Veach, Leach.
26-30. D. Moore, Bresnahan, Van Haltren, Cicotte, McCormick. And don't forget about #31 Sol White.

Not required but close: Welch (#35)--there's that pesky ERA+. Ryan (#40). Taylor (#44). Carl Mays (#48).
   11. sunnyday2 Posted: September 20, 2004 at 07:12 PM (#864942)
PS. Coulda mentioned Bingo DeMoss. Not on my top 100.
   12. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 20, 2004 at 07:29 PM (#864990)
PS. Coulda mentioned Bingo DeMoss. Not on my top 100.

PSS Coulda mentioned Eddie Collins, too. :-D
   13. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: September 20, 2004 at 07:34 PM (#865002)
29. Max Carey. More hits than Hooper, lower OPS+ (only 107, though that’s lowered by a long decline). TB+BB/PA .433, TB+BB/Outs .658 very feeble, and it’s post-the real deadball era. SBs only add a little, as he was only about 70%-75%successful.

I'm not trying to quibble with your distaste for Carey, karl, but I thought it should be pointed out that the portion in bold is blatantly false. Carey never had a season with a SB% below 75 percent, and he went as high as 96 percent. For his career that we know about, his success rate was 81%, better than Rickey Henderson's. And that's in an era when the overall MLB percentage was much worse than it is today.
   14. OCF Posted: September 20, 2004 at 07:49 PM (#865022)
PSS Coulda mentioned Eddie Collins, too. :-D

I'm counting ballots and that one slipped right by me - I read what I expected to see there, not what was actually said. Of course, "Hit .333 in 11,500 PA"* pretty much clinches the identity.

(*bbref says it was > 12,000 PA)
   15. sunnyday2 Posted: September 20, 2004 at 08:17 PM (#865081)
Geez, can't put nuffin' past you guys.

Yes, that's Eddie at #1. Eddie hit better than Jimmy, too, BTW, so Jimmy would be down there around his comps Childs and Williamson at 13-14. Jimmy is PHoM, BTW, though it took me another 6-8 years to get him in there than the rest of you. I partially made up for it by honoring Eddie a year earlier.

Now, about Ripper...
   16. karlmagnus Posted: September 20, 2004 at 08:37 PM (#865121)
Eric, sorry I corrected it on the discussion thread. The SBs, according to my calculation, add about 90 bases to his total, and increase his OBP by an equivalent of .009, so add 2 points to his OPS. At 109, it still keeps him off the bottom of my ballot, but of course others may differ.
   17. karlmagnus Posted: September 20, 2004 at 08:38 PM (#865125)
Sorry, OPS+
   18. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: September 20, 2004 at 08:45 PM (#865149)
Gotcha, karl. Thanks. Just wanted to make sure we weren't overlooking anything.
   19. Brad Harris Posted: September 20, 2004 at 11:17 PM (#865359)
1. Eddie Collins
2. Pop Lloyd
3. Smokey Joe Williams
4. Christobal Torriente
5. Heinie Groh
6. Lip Pike
7. Clark Griffith
8. Rube Waddell
9. Larry Doyle
10. Ed Konetchy
11. Carl Mays
12. Stan Coveleski
13. Jose Mendez
14. Charley Jones
15. Cupid Childs
   20. dan b Posted: September 21, 2004 at 01:38 AM (#865790)
1. Collins (1) Best player not elected on first ballot.
2. Lloyd 2nd best player not elected on first ballot.
3. Williams3rd best player not elected on first ballot.
4. Torriente best player to receive no “elect me” votes on his first ballot.
5.Groh (4) Eventual PHoM.
6.Duffy (2). PHoM in 1912.
7.Griffith (2) 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM in 1913.
8.Jennings (13) – PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar.
9.Waddell (3) I like his peak and K’s. 2nd best LHP to date. PHoM 1926.
10.Leach (7) 6th in 8-yr peak, 4th in career. PHoM 1926.
11. Carey (5) 2nd in career, 8th in 10 year peak.
12.Willis (1) – 2st in career, 3rd in 3-year peak. By WS, best NL pitcher in 1899 and 1901, 2nd best in 1902 and 1906.
13.Coveleski (4)
14.Burns (3)
15.Bresnahan (27) Big position bonus to fill the void behind the plate. HoM will be flawed if we do not induct at least one Major League catcher who played between Buck Ewing’s retirement in 1897 and Gabby Hartnett’s debut in 1922. Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
   21. Sean Gilman Posted: September 21, 2004 at 01:43 AM (#865801)
Dates in parenthesis are when they entered my PHOM.

1935

1. Eddie Collins (2)--WARP1 likes him better than Speaker, especially on peak. Best Second Baseman Ever. (1934)

2. Pop Lloyd (4)--Doesn’t look like his peak was as high as Cobb-Speaker-Collins.

3. Smokey Joe Williams (5)--Best Smokey Joe ever.

4. Lip Pike (6)--Not quite as good in the NA as McVey, but better before; much better in the NA than Start, not as good before. Very underrated. I’ve never been able to understand the anti-1870s crowd. A pennant is a pennant. How one could rank, say, Sam Thompson ahead of Pike I have no idea. Played the infield, played the outfield. The greatest power/speed combination of his time. Great peak and a fairly long career for a 19th Century Outfielder. According to WARP3, the best player on his team in 1871, 1874, 1875, and 1876. .2 WARP3 behind the team leader in 1872, second on the team in 1877. One of the top 2-3 players on the pre-NA teams he played for in his early 20s. Faster than a horse. (1919)

5. Pete Browning (7)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

6. Charley Jones (8)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

7. Cristobal Torriente (9)--While his career was longer, it doesn’t look as if his peak can match that of the three high peak/short career outfielders above.

8. Hughie Jennings (10)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

9. Cupid Childs (11)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .

10. Heinie Groh (12)--Peak not quite as high as Jennings or Childs, but better than the long career outfielders.

11. Roger Bresnahan (13)--Great rate stats, but he just didn’t play enough to generate the value of the higher ups on the ballot. Ranks ahead of Childs only because of the bonus I give him for being a catcher.

12. Stan Coveleski (21)--I’ve been systematically underrating pitchers as a reaction to the tendency of Win Shares and WARP to overrate them in the first 50 years or so of baseball. But I think I’ve been too hard on these two, so I’m bumping them ahead of the outfield glut.

13. Clark Griffith (31)--Pitcher reevaluation gives him a big jump up this year.

14. Hugh Duffy (14)--Duffy’s got small (very small) edges on Van Haltren and Ryan in pennants added and win shares peak numbers.

15. George Van Haltren (15)--Gluterrific.

16. Ed Williamson (16)
17. Tommy Leach (17)
18. Jimmy Ryan (18)
19. Larry Doyle (19)
20. Rube Waddell (22)--Doesn’t get the jump that Coveleski and Griffith do because while I had been underrating their peaks, turns out I’d been overrating Waddell’s.
21. Bobby Veach (20)
22. Max Carey (-)--Welcome to the outfield glut!
23. George Burns (23)
24. Jake Beckley (24)
25. Ben Taylor (25)
   22. Patrick W Posted: September 21, 2004 at 02:37 AM (#865968)
Some comments are past their expiration date, but they’ll have to make due for now. If my luck holds up, the job workload might let up by November.

1. Eddie Collins (3), Phila. - Chic. (A), 2B (’06-’28) (1935) – I’ll let someone else pick the hat – made his name with Philly, the numbers favor Chicago.
2. Smokey Joe Williams (4), NY (--), SP (’10-’32) (1935) – His numbers are stupid good, mostly based on the IP. Cy Young would be 5th on this ballot FWIW.
3. Pop Lloyd (5), Phi-NY-Chic-Bkn-Columb-NY again (--), SS (’06-’31) – I’ll let someone else pick the ha….. – If somebody starts arguing with you that Hall of Famers don’t stay with one team like they use to, point them towards the ’34 ballot thread.
4. Cristobal Torriente (6), Chic. (--), CF (’13-’28) – only 106.8 est. W3 based off the MLE’s.
5. Max Carey (n/a), Pitt. (N), CF / LF (’10-’29) – Slots in (barely) at the top of the mere-mortal portion of the ballot.
6. George Van Haltren (7), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – A case can be made for Van Haltren over Wheat. Mostly along the lines of reducing timelines & ignoring W3 PRAR, but it’s a case I could be persuaded by. Just too many tie-breakers point to the new guy. I’m going back to adjusted WS to break the tie with Ryan.
7. Jimmy Ryan (8), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Still underrated by the group. Somebody needs to explain Duffy over Ryan to me.
8. Harry Hooper (9), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
9. Fielder Jones (10), Chic.(A), CF / RF (’96-’08) (1930) – Criminally underrated here. Not the second best on the ballot either, but 6 votes?? OPS+ isn’t everything folks…
10. Ben Taylor (11), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) – Worried he’ll be forgotten because of a group wariness on injecting too much new blood in one year. Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
11. Stan Coveleski (12), Clev (A), SP (’16-’28) – I’d recommend to anyone here checking out the minor league ballpark named after him in South Bend, IN.
12. Jake Beckley (13), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Solid numbers forever.
13. Rube Waddell (14), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – Tied at the hip to Foster, so the new WARP helps them both to the top of the pitcher glut.
14. Heinie Groh (15), Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) – HoM before PhoM most likely.
15. Urban Shocker (--), St.L (A), SP (’16-’27) – I remembered his name from a long time ago, looking up the ’27 Yankees. I had assumed his 18-6, 2.84 season was mid-career, not his last. Clear #2 pitcher without the ‘voluntary retirement’ at 35.

Lip Pike – Too many other worthies have arrived (and will continue to) and rank ahead of him. Doesn’t look likely that he’ll ever make it to the ballot.

Pike was in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   23. DavidFoss Posted: September 21, 2004 at 03:09 AM (#866019)
1935 Ballot:

John Murphy Lotto -- Round Two

1. Pop Lloyd (ne-2) -- Top Negro league shortstop of all time, in Honus Wagner's league.
2. Eddie Collins (ne-4) -- One of the great trio of early 2B. Great fielding and baserunning complement stellar bat.
3. Smokey Joe Williams (ne-5) -- Compares to Pete Alexander, though a war-less Feller has been mentioned as well. Neyer/James book has his fastball rated in the top 3-4 from 1905 to 1920.
4. Cristobal Torriente (ne-6) -- The type of OF candidate I've ranked high in the past. High peak, medium length career.
5. Lip Pike (5-4-2-1-2-2-1-1-1-2-2-7) -- 155 OPS+ CF in the NA/NL. Solid pre-NA play includes time at 2B. Brooklyn's best slugger in '70, second to Start in '69, also had excellent 'rookie' season on great Athletics squad in '66.
6. Heinie Groh (ne-4-8) -- Best 3rd baseman of the late teens. Peak is not close to McGraw's but doesn't have the career issues that Johnny Mack has.
7. Stan Coveleski (ne-9) -- 127 ERA+ over 3000 IP. Best human pitcher between 1915 and 1925.
8. Larry Doyle (nr-14-11-9-8-6-7-10) -- Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests. Recent work here convinced me to drop his NL discount, he's far below Collins even without it. I think the electorate is underrating him.
9. Charley Jones (nr-nr-13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11) -- Late start (for the era) and unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
10. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues -- even for this peak voter -- are causing him to fall. I may be giving up on him, but would resurrect his candidacy in a heartbeat if necessary.
11. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13) -- I like peak and boy does Hughie have peak. Short career, poor seasons outside his peak slip his career OPS+ down to 117.
12. Cupid Childs (nr-15-12-10-9-8-9-14) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
13. Mickey Welch (nr-14-11-11-12-15) -- 300 game winner. Played for great teams in an easy era to win games, but new research is saying he did more to earn his W's than previously thought. Still, his meager 113 ERA+ is keeping him low on the ballot.
14. Clark Griffith (nr-15-12-10-8-7-9-10)-- Long tail at the end of career is masking a solid prime from 94-01... a prime longer than many other current candidates. That would fill the late 90's pitcher shortage that's been reported, but I'm not giving him a bonus for that or anything.
15. Roger Bresnahan (15-15-nr-nr-13-11-10-10-11) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage.

Omissions:

Beckley -- Took a long look at him. Black Ink of 1. Top OPS finishes are 5-7-8-10. His 125 career OPS+ is actually SLG-heavy which is cause for a slight discount... probably explains why his career high in WS is only 23.
   24. Chris Cobb Posted: September 21, 2004 at 03:18 AM (#866026)
1935 Ballot

Still working through the all-time greats glut.

1. Eddie Collins. (3). Beats Lloyd on hitting.
2. John Henry Lloyd. (4) Possibly the #2 shortstop ever.
3. Joe Williams. (5) He beat Alexander in the one game they pitched against each other. Holway doesn’t provide a single-game box score, but it looks like the team backing Williams included Judy Gans, Brodie Francis (both fine players), Doc Wiley (at his peak nearly as good as Santop), Spotswood Poles, Louis Santop, Home Run Johnson, and John Henry Lloyd! No wonder they beat Alexander 9-2. (Alexander was backed by Vern Duncan, Beals Becker, Bobby Byrne, Josh Devore, Dode Paskert, and some other unnamed players. Not quite as good a team.) Still, I don’t think Williams’ career was quite as good as Pete’s, and he would have to be that good to rank ahead of Lloyd or Collins.
4. Cristobal Torriente<6>. (n/e) A shoo-in for 1937.
5. <b>Stan Coveleski
. (7). Unlike the other eligible pitchers with similar records, Coveleski didn’t benefit from above-average run support or fielding support.
6. Clark Griffith. (8) Best remaining player from the still-underrepresented 1890s.
7. Hughie Jennings (12) The second 1890s star still featured on my ballot. While I see why some favor Childs over Jennings, I’m just not convinced that the “best second baseman” argument matters, and Jennings, at his best, was the best position player of the era, a point on which WARP and win shares agree. During his 1894-1898 peak, he was the best position player in baseball, and better than a pair of contemporary first-ballot HoMers, Billy Hamilton and Ed Delahanty, who were also at their peaks during these years. Passes Van Haltren in my 1890s rankings, and so takes a leap up on the ballot.
8. Mickey Welch. (10) 8th-10th best player of the 1880s.
9. Heinie Groh (11) . I’m pleased that he seems to be getting his due from the electorate.
10.Max Carey (n/e). Drops a bit from my preliminary ballot in response to concerns about outfield defense being overrated. I don’t think WS or WARP overrates outfield defense, but I had been applying blanket fielding bonuses to all position players by era. I’ve dropped those bonuses for outfielders, so they’ve slipped a bit vs. pitchers and infielders this year. All that said, Carey was one of the best defensive outfielders of all time, and so he rates just ahead of Van Haltren, who was somewhat better with the stick but not a historically great glove in center.
11. George Van Haltren (9) All-around, consistent talent. Karlmagnus argues that win shares overrates players like him and Carey; I hold to the contrary that traditional discussions of merit overlook the value of these players.
12. Tommy Leach (13) Another player similar to Carey, but not quite as good with the stick. Last star of the aughts who is a serious candidate for election in my view. Comparison to Groh pointed out that I had been underrating him a little.
13. Lip Pike. (14) Still around; makes my ballot for the 33rd consecutive election. He had a great peak, however one adjusts for era.
14. Urban Shocker (15) A very underrated player; he might well be a HoMer. He had a couple of great seasons in 1920 and 1921, and he was above average every single year he pitched. He and Mendez are very close in value as my system sees it, but Shocker is slightly ahead. In comparing Shocker to a pitcher like Waddell, the electorate should keep in mind that average innings pitched for a starting pitcher dropped from an average of 277 for 1900-1909 to 230 for 1917-1926 as conditions for pitchers became increasingly difficult. In that context, Shocker’s innings-pitched totals are as good as Waddell’s, and he was a more consistently effective pitcher.
15. Spotswood Poles (16) Back on the ballot. His peak was short, but strong in relation to his contemporaries. He’s stayed in the mix without having a vocal champion; I think he’ll rise to serious contention in time. He’s at the top of a group of second-tier stars from the 1910s – Poles, Mendez, Doyle, Hooper – whom I may be underrating slightly.

Top Ten Returning Players from 1934 Who Don’t Make my 1935 Ballot

Jake Beckley. See #38 below
Rube Waddell. See #22 below

1935 Off-Ballot

16. Jose Mendez (17)
17. Larry Doyle (19). Outfield defensive adjustment moves Doyle past Hooper.
18. Harry Hooper (18).
19. Hugh Duffy (20). Haven’t trickled my outfielder revisions down below Hooper yet, so Duffy may slip next year.
20. Wilbur Cooper (21)
21. Rube Waddell (22) See Shocker comment above for more on how I compare Waddell to later pitchers. Waddell was a great talent, and he was one of the greatest characters in the history of major-league baseball. He’s thus deserving of his place in the Hall of Fame, but I think his value is just below the threshold for Hall of Merit induction.
22. Carl Mays (n/e). Without accounting for run support and defense, he looks a lot like Coveleski, but when you account for run-support and defense, he loses almost 20 wins above average—he’s not close to Coveleski. His hitting raises his value almost to that of Cooper and Waddell, but not quite.
23. Ben Taylor (23)
24. Bobby Veach (24)
25. Roger Bresnahan (25)
26. Jimmy Ryan (26)
27. Cupid Childs (27).
28. Fielder Jones (28)
29. Dobie Moore (29)
30. Gavvy Cravath (30)
31. Herman Long (31)
32. Tommy Bond (32)
33. George J. Burns (33)
34. Charley Jones (34)
35. Bruce Petway (35)
36. Bill Monroe (36)
37. Babe Adams (37)
38. Jake Beckley (38) Like Childs, Beckley just doesn’t appear outstanding in comparison to his contemporaries. Lack of better first-basemen could give him a positional boost, but right now I don’t see the justification for a positional bonus for first base.
39. Frank Chance (39)
40. Tony Mullane (40)
   25. Adam Schafer Posted: September 21, 2004 at 05:34 AM (#866250)
1. Eddie Collins (2) - The greatest second baseman

2. Pop Lloyd (4) - I love Smokey Joe, but it appears to me that Pop was more dominating and more deserving at his position then Smokey was at pitching...nothing against Smokey though, he's only one spot down.

3. Smokey Joe Williams (5) - see Pop

4. Mickey Welch (6) - This ballot sure hurt his #1 and #2 ranking I've been keeping him at.

5. Clark Griffith (7) - Big jump for Griffith. All of the talk on Welch has had me reevaluate Griffith. Turns out Griffith was much more valuable than I was giving him credit for.

6. Stan Coveleski (8) - I initially had him ranked 17th on my ballot, but since then I've read everyone's comments on him and have decided that I had him way too low.

7. Rube Waddell (9) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

8. Cristobal Torriente (10) - EXCELLANT player, just not in Pop or Smokey Joe territory

-----------------------My PHOM line---------------------------------------------

9. Lip Pike (11) - I bump him ahead of a couple others this year as I am convinced he was a bigger stud than I was willing to let myself believe. I can see him finally getting in one of these days.

10. George Van Haltren (12) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.

11. Jose Mendez (13) - I thought I'd have him a lot higher than this, but I just don't feel like I have a firm grasp of his career yet. I do feel much more comfortable with him than I do with Rube Foster though.

12. Jake Beckley (14) - Big drop for a guy that would've been #2 on my ballot this year. I didn't find any reason to like him any less, I just found justification in moving several others higher than him.

13. Max Carey (n/a) - Not much peak, but enough career to scratch in at #13

14. Roger Bresnahan (15) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I would've ranked Roger higher had he caught more and played the OF less during his peak years.

15. Carl Mays (n/a) - People may laugh that he made my ballot, but Carl could pitch

16. Hughie Jennings (16) - Nothing new to add

17. Heinie Groh (17) - One of the best thirdbasemen to date

18. Bobby Veach (18) - Not enough career for him to merit a higher ranking on my ballot, but enough peak to grab a lower spot.

19. Jimmy Ryan (19) - A watered down Van Haltren

20. Eddie Cicotte (20) - Underrated in my opinion. May not be HOM material, but underrated nonetheless.

21. Urban Shocker (21) - 8 good pitching seasons. Nothing spectacular, but a respectable career.

22. Hugh Duffy (22) - Back onto my ballot. No new thoughts on him

23 Harry Hooper (23) - nothing overly impressive about his career. I originally thought he would rank much higher than this on my initial ballot, but he just doesn't meet the qualifications in my mind that everyone above him does.

24. Jim McCormick (24) - He's no Mickey Welch

25. Cupid Childs (25)

Just a nod of acknowledgement to Jack (John W.) Scott, not that he should recieve even the slightest amount of consideration for the HOM, b/c he shouldn't. I was just tickled to see his name mentioned as the autographed Ford Frick ball I have of him is sitting here staring back at me.
   26. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 21, 2004 at 01:37 PM (#866536)
1. Eddie Collins (3)
2. Smokey Joe Williams (4): I have Collins and Williams in a dead heat, but because Collins’s career is more clearly documented and less reliant on guesswork on my end, I give him the slightest edge. Another argument for Collins over Williams might be that he is very clearly one of the top three persons at his position, all-time, and, in my opinion, the best 2B we’ve seen, whereas Williams isn’t the best P we’ve seen and probably isn’t one of the best three at his position because Johnson, Young, Paige, Grove, and Clemens (and maybe Seaver and Spahn?) probably all have better arguments. Williams, of course, has more competition at his position, so maybe that’s an unfair way to look at it, but when you’re looking for tie-breakers in a closely-bundled ballot….

3. John Henry Lloyd (5): I don’t believe he was as good as Wagner, in particular because he lacks Hans’s giant peak. In a way you could make the argument that Wagner is to A-Rod as Lloyd is to Ripken. But el Cuchara is shortstop numero uno in the teens. He’s only a hair behind Williams and Collins, and only because his peak is a shade lower than theirs. He played forever, and he was highly effective for most of that time. On virtually any other ballot, he’s in an elect-me slot.

4. Cristobal Torriente (6): Torriente was a stud with a nice high peak, a reasonably long career full of productive seasons, and he played an up-the-middle position to boot. To my mind he’s very clearly better than anyone in the OF glut. That Torriente doesn’t have a plaque in C-town is truly bogus.

5. George Van Haltren (7, pHOM 1932): Nice, long career helped him generate plenty of value, but flat peak keeps him out of the top two spots. That said, he’s not as flat in peak as the likes of Beckley or Hooper.

6. Spotswood Poles (8): Poles seems like another member of the Van Ryanffy family, but I prefer him to all but GVH in the group. I do give him credit for missing the 1918 season.

7. Cupid Childs (9): Best second baseman of 1890s, peak not as high as Jennings, but he had a career, not just a peak like Hughie.

8. Hughie Jennings (10): His huge peak, the best among the returning position players, goes a long way to establishing value, and winning five pennants. But being awesome for five years doesn’t mean as much when coupled to a near total lack of surrounding value.

9. Bobby Veach (11): Nice peak/prime player, but now that his NB contemporaries have come due, he’ll quickly start sliding downward. As someone said earlier, being second-tier in a league with Cobb, Crawford, Speaker, Ruth, Collins, ain’t something to sneeze at.

10. Heinie Groh (12): His five year peak is sweet, but it’s not as nearly as high as Jennings’s. I also found that his prime/extended prime didn’t offer as much as Veach’s did. Groh did play a more demanding defensive position when it was even more demanding than today, and from all accounts seems to be a brilliant defender, so it’s possible that I’m underrating him a bit, which means it’s possible he could move northward on my ballot as we compare him against future third base eligibles.

11. Stan Coveleski (13): I’m freeloading off the great work of everyone on the ballot discussion thread. Originally I had Stan off the ballot entirely in the Waddell area of my consideration set, but the case made for him elevated him enough above his predecessors that he’s jumped on board the ballot. The more I see, the more I like. I suspect that as we come to grips with the high-peak pitchers over the coming “years,” he will move up my ballot, benefiting from those comparisons.

12. Bill Monroe (14): Working with the translations, he comes out as having the best career value among eligible non-Collins second basemen, though less peak/prime value than Childs. I continue to waiver over Monroe, because of the sketchy information available about his career. Sigh.

13. Jimmy Ryan (15): I prefer GVH, SP, and BV. Thus begins Ryan’s probable ultimate slide off my ballot. Perhaps he’ll see the light of day again around 1960 or 1990.

14. Griffith (x): Back on the ballot after a year’s hiatus. I’m now bumping him ahead of Mendez, but I might flip-flop again.

15. Taylor (x): I may have him too high. I may have him too low. Hard to say. He looks like a guy with good career length and value and peak—just a little higher than the Hooper/Carey contingent, with good defense to boot and a little mound work.

(TBC)
   27. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 21, 2004 at 01:39 PM (#866538)
Returning Top-Tens I Didn’t Vote for:
Lip Pike: Third best player of the 1860s–70s is, to my mind, a persuasive argument for Lipman. On the other hand, I’m not willing to put him anywhere near an elect-me spot without Pearce’s combination of performance AND visionary status. New candidates have pushed well him off.

Jake Beckley: Becks Lite’s career length and totals ARE impressive, but the total lack of peak makes him seem like a background contributor, not a HOMer. At this juncture, I prefer what I know of Taylor to what I know of Beckley.

All the New Dudes:
Max Carey: In a near dead heat with Hooper, which means he’s off my ballot. It is possible that OPS+ and similar measures underrate him because they exclude his defense and his SB%, but it’s also possible that Win Shares’ systematic quirks overrate him because he’s a CF. I think those factors mostly wash each other out. To use a Jamesian argument: a team with Carey as its best player would be unlikely to win a pennant.

Carl Mays: Much closer to the ballot than Carey, perhaps a slot or two off of it. Seems like, per Chris J.’s info, that he was pretty derned lucky, but I have trouble ignoring the monster years.

Ken Williams: I concur with whoever posted the Youngs-Williams hybrid. Two great players who taste great together, but who didn’t have quite enough career individually to get on my ballot. I wish there was more info on his pre-1919 activities so that I could feel more secure about my placement of him. Would the Chisox win if they made this Ken Williams the GM instead of the other Ken Williams???

Geo H. Burns: I wasn’t a big fan of Oh God Book II.

Bingo DeMoss: Glenn Hubbard without the bat? Maranville lite? Or the beta version of Dal Maxville?
   28. TomH Posted: September 21, 2004 at 03:15 PM (#866625)
A good week to vote early - while I could tweak the lower portion of my ballot, it would not influence the elcetion.

1935 Ballot
review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 13 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and maybe speed. I don’t believe in much extra value for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

1-Eddie Collins (3)
Arguably the greatest second baseman ever.
2-Pop Lloyd (4)
Likely the second-best shortstop ever. Too bad A-Rod moved to 3B; he may have made a good claim.
3-Smokey Joe Williams (5)
Arguably the greatest Negro League pitcher ever
4-Cristobal Torriente (6)
By consensus, one of the 12 (if not fewer!) best position players in Negro League history.
5-Clark Griffith (7)
Like my wonderful wife: the more I look, the more pure gold I find underneath : )
6-Stan Coveleski (8)
127 ERA+ for 3000 IP mostly in live ball era.

----phom line about here
7-Heinie Groh (13)
Very good stick and glove. I was a bit conservative last ballot. Hearing no substantial negatives, the Bottle Bat rates right here.
8-George Van Haltren (9)
Hit. Ran. Played defense. Pitched. Long career. No timeline discount for 1890s. Solidly on my ballot.
9-John McGraw (10)
I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP ain’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us. KJOK will keep me from being the best FOJMcG.
10-Lip Pike (11)
AdjEqA of .302. Fine WS and OPS+. Played infield too. Concerns about his ethics’ affect on team performance drop him a bit.
11-Max Carey (new)
Best comparisons
Comp1: Hooper. Hit almost as well (if you include the baserunning), fielded better, same career length. Edge to Max.
Comp2: Leach. Hit better, almost as valuable in field. Edge to Max.
Comp3: Beckley. Hit almost as well and a good deal more defensive value. Edge to Max.
Comp4: Groh. Not as good a stick, not as valuable a glove. Extra years won’t do it. Edge to Heinie.
A few bonus pts for his superb World Series gets him on the ballot.
12-Rube Waddell (12)
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit.
13-Roger Bresnahan (14)
A nod to position scarcity. A great player when he was on the field.
14-Addie Joss (15)
Bonus points for his great pennant exploits.
15-Hughie Jennings (off)
Great for 5 years; that’s all he has.

Barely missing
Jake Beckley, Urban Shocker, Frank Chance, Cupid Childs, Larry Doyle, Mickey Welch

Is it possible that DeMoss belongs here? Sure it is. But even if he was Mazeroski with the glove, I need a LITTLE evidence that he could hit.
   29. jhwinfrey Posted: September 21, 2004 at 03:38 PM (#866663)
This is my 10th ballot as a HOM voter, so naturally it's time for me to revamp my ranking system. In the past, I've used Win Shares as a starting framework and then made adjustments based on a wide range of objective and subjective criteria. I've decided to go with a more quantitative system, factoring in career length, gray ink, win shares, OBP, total bases, ERA+, and range factor.
As you can see, this has resulted in a few changes in this year's ballot.

1935: (Collins and Williams join my PHOM)

1. Pop Lloyd (2)
2. Eddie Collins (3)
3. Smokey Joe Williams (4)
4. Cristobal Torriente (6)

No changes in order from last year so far.

5. Jake Beckley (6, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 8): Beckley jumps ahead of Welch for the first time.

6. Mickey Welch (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 7): Welch's relatively short career bumps him down a notch.

7. Max Carey (ne): There's not much not to like about Carey. Long career, great speed, excellent defense.

8. Ben Taylor (11): Here's where the subjectiveness comes in. I've estimated the negro leaguers' stats based on the players I consider most similar. Taylor is very close to Beckley in my judgement.

9. Carl Mays (ne): A bit of a surprise, but that's why I've gone to the numbers instead of my gut.

10. Spotswood Poles (11, 9, 9, 12, 12, nr): A notch ahead of Van Haltren.

11. George Van Haltren (14, 15, 13, 13, 12, 10, 11, 11, nr): Another player whose defensive abilities help him in my new rankings.

12. Jules Thomas (nr): Very close to Poles.

13. Jose Mendez (4, 8, 13): No change on Mendez, I still feel he's not far below Foster.

14. Bruce Petway(14, 12, 14, 13, nr): Best catcher on the ballot, and I continue to use a small positional bonus.

15. Jim McCormick(15, nr, 13, 15, nr): Like Mendez, about where he was in my old rankings.

Just missing...
16. Jimmy Ryan
17. Vic Willis
18. Hugh Duffy: Clearly, I was short-changing him.
19. Tommy Leach
20. Stan Coveleski: Close, but Mays is the better of the two "newbie" pitchers

Other notables:
22. Heinie Groh: Will likely make my ballot in the 40's
23. Lip Pike: Like Waddell, his reputation blinded me to his numbers a bit. He's still in the mix, though.
24. Clark Griffith
27. Bingo DeMoss: Hard to overlook his offensive shortcomings.
31. Cupid Childs
32. Rube Waddell: Childs and Waddell take the biggest hits. In posturing myself as a "career voter" I had been making an exception for Waddell for no good reason. It's time to get serious.
   30. OCF Posted: September 21, 2004 at 03:53 PM (#866691)
From dan b's ballot:
14.Burns (3)

I'd say we should count that as a vote for George J. Burns, outfielder. Any objections?
   31. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 21, 2004 at 04:03 PM (#866703)
None, OCF.
   32. Dolf Lucky Posted: September 21, 2004 at 05:56 PM (#866949)
1 (2)Eddie Collins--With Cobb off the ballot, Collins has the best career, best peak, and best prime on the board.

2 (3)John Henry Lloyd
3 (5)Cristobal Torriente
4 (6)Smokey Joe Williams--They're all getting in, and deservedly so. I'm just bumping them up until they're in.

5 (7)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

6 (8)Stan Coveleski--Head-to-head, Coveleski clearly ranks ahead of Cicotte, who I like. Much closer to Waddell, who stays ahead partly on the basis of all those shiny strikeouts…

7 (9)Heinie Groh--At his peak, he was the cornerstone of a championship team. His career numbers are solid, placing him at least the equal of Jimmy Collins, but shy of Frank Baker.

8 (10)Donie Bush--...and he managed Ted Williams in the minors!

9 (11)Roger Bresnahan--The biggest boost from the new WARP scores. The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing). My apologies to the Duke of Tralee for not catching on quicker.

10 (12)Eddie Cicotte--Career and peak numbers synch up fairly closely to Waddell, but Cicotte lacked the dominance.

11 (14)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

12 (13)Duke Farrell--Catchers apparently got the largest WARP boost. Much of Farrell's case comes from the strength of his 1891 season.

13 (-)Hughie Jennings--Back on, since his case is all peak, and when compared to the ultra-elite, his peak tends to look somewhat weak.

14 (-) Silver King--Ditto.

15 (-)Hugh Duffy--I've got a Duffy/Veach/Burns/Carey logjam fighting for 15th. I'm taking Duffy for now, but we're talking coin flip territory.

Dropping out: George J. Burns

Top 10 omissions: Lip Pike can't overcome the timeline issue at this point in history. Jake Beckley can't overcome the lack of peak issue at any point in history.
   33. TomH Posted: September 21, 2004 at 06:36 PM (#867021)
observation: jhwinfrey, you may take the award for most "pro Negro league" ballot. Eight out of 15.
   34. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 21, 2004 at 06:54 PM (#867053)
observation: jhwinfrey, you may take the award for most "pro Negro league" ballot. Eight out of 15.

Boy, I "only" have four Negro League players. I hope the NAACP doesn't hear about this. :-D
   35. OCF Posted: September 21, 2004 at 07:12 PM (#867081)
Of the 20 votes cast so far, everyone has voted for at least 3 Negro League players, and the average is 4.15. John is one of 9 who have voted for exactly 4. Second place on this list goes to Eric Enders who voted for 7. Dr. Chaleeko voted for 6.
   36. PhillyBooster Posted: September 21, 2004 at 07:43 PM (#867117)
From dan b's ballot:
14.Burns (3)

I'd say we should count that as a vote for George J. Burns, outfielder. Any objections?


Personally, the top Burns on my list of eligibles is Oyster.. That's probably not who dan meant, though.

BTW, did anyone else hear that in the movie recreation of the 1916 New York Giants' season, their left fielder was going to be played by Ellen DeGeneres?
   37. Howie Menckel Posted: September 21, 2004 at 11:45 PM (#867458)
1935 ballot, the usual tweaking of some comments and a few rearrangings..

1. EDDIE COLLINS - Great battle with Morgan for best-ever 2B. OPS+s 1909-15: 171, 152, 162, 158, 164, 176, 165. Top 10 in OBP every year from 1909-26 (yet never led), and finished 2, 3, or 4 a dozen times.
2. JOE WILLIAMS - Best Negro League pitcher ever. Basically, a 400-game winner major league level. "In exhibition games against major leaguers, Williams compiled a 22-7-1 record with 12 shutouts. In 1915 he struck out 10 while hurling a 1-0 three-hit shutout over Hall of Famer Grover Cleveland Alexander and the Phillies."

3. POP LLOYD - Deserves to be a first-ballot HOMer, but maybe has to wait 'til third try. I'm not quite buying the Wagner comparisons, and Lloyd didn't last as long at SS anyway. In 29 recorded games against white major leaguers, Lloyd batted .321.
4. CRISTOBAL TORRIENTE - Still feels too low, but I don't quite see him as rivaling Lloyd - who reversed his Negro Leagues/Cuba route. Did some quality LH pitching, too, for bonus credit. "When he joined the Chicago American Giants in 1919, Hall of Famer Oscar Charleston moved from centerfield to left field." In the 12 documented years that Torriente played in the Cuban League, he hit .352.

5. PETE BROWNING - Deserves a LONG second look from those overlooking him. Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time. Has been discounted too much for AA numbers, and I'm not a big AA fan at all.
6. MICKEY WELCH - Pitching was extremely important in the 1880s in my mind, and this is the last one we need to close the books. I'm still convinced we got a little off-track in the Keefe-Welch-Clarkson discussion; OK if we rate Welch third in that bunch, but not sure how he got THIS far behind. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
7. HEINIE GROH - I'm slowly starting to give fielding numbers more weight, after being quite skeptical in the 1800s. He's above my HOMer line, thanks to positional consideration.
8. CLARK GRIFFITH - A personal favorite, and gets a pitching 'quota' bonus. It's remarkable how much better he was than the teams he pitched for. I think he was a brilliant strategist long before he became a manager, and it showed in his pitching.
9. STAN COVELESKI - I buy the idea that these two are very close, after another look at Stan's career. A bit of a transitional time for pitchers, which makes them tougher to compare across eras than hitters, I think.
10. JAKE BECKLEY - Moves up a slot, with another year of candidates who didn't have the staying power ol' Jake did. I'm now firmly convinced that no one will ever explain what Keeler has that Beckley doesn't. And he's better than many here give him credit for (no disrespect intended).
11. HUGHIE JENNINGS - The yang to Beckley's yin moves up several slots, on the theory that a four-year megastar is better than entire careers of most of these balloteers. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS. Tough call.
12. CUPID CHILDS - The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot. But I can't say I'm sure he belongs.
13. LIP PIKE - Back on the ballot. The Dick Allen comparisons seem apt. A little odd that he didn't get to play much with 'the big boys' at a time when they seemed to seek each other out, but the hitting numbers are damn good. My main trepidation is the murmurs about his ethics, but I voted Shoeless Joe No. 1. Or maybe we have enough 1870s guys.
14. JOSE MENDEZ - First time on my ballot. High-peak Negro Leaguers of course are problematic; we know the Lloyds and Smokey Joes belong, but is this guy Joss, or Walsh? Another tough one, but maybe Sam Crawford's buddy belongs with his pal in the HOM.
15. MAX CAREY - The SBs/pct puts him ahead of Hooper, but Harry didn't get much time in on my ballot. I'm not sure yet what to do with Max, though.


TOP 10 SNUBS
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - See my 'dis' in the 1933 ballot discussion thread. I'm just not a fan, and would rather see him not get in. The early pitching carries him a smidge past Ryan, Duffy, and friends.
I'm likely done with Waddell, Ryan, Duffy, and Bresnahan.

NEW
CARL MAYS is on the radar screen. Geesh, picking borderline HOMer pitchers is going to be our toughest assignment....
   38. andrew siegel Posted: September 22, 2004 at 03:13 PM (#868692)
I typed a long ballot, went to class without sending it, and lost it to the computer Gods. This is my not exactly satisfactory substitute:

(1) Eddie Collins (2nd)-- A unique player.

(2) Pop Lloyd (4th)-- Wish I knew more about his defense; if he were an A/A- offensive player and an All-Time Top 10 defensive SS his career length would make him an All-Time Top 5 player; so, obviously I rate his defense lower than that.

(3) Smokey Joe Williams (5th)-- You are obviously a great player when I can write the following sentence about you: "On further review, I've demoted him into a tie with Christy Matthewson."

(4) Cristobal Torriente (6th)-- Best-case comp is Paul Waner; worst case comp is Zach Wheat. Those guys are separated by almost 100 places on my All-Time list, but both would rank 4th on this ballot.

(5)Cupid Childs (7th)--Like a broken record: great bat, good glove, some speed, high peak, excellent prime, good career length for his position and era, where is the love?

(6) George Van Haltren (8th)-- I see the arguments comparing him to guys who are off my ballot, but I think his little advantages (consistency, offense, adequacy at key defensive position, better speed than all but Carey, tough one-league era, pitching)add up to a substantial advantage over, say, Ryan and a huge advantage over, say, Hooper.

(7) Hughie Jennings (9th)-- On the bubble, now and forever. His kingdom for one more great year.

(8) Heinie Groh (10th)-- I really like him but don't see how he can rank over Childs (longer, stronger prime) or Jennings (better five-year peak) given what he is selling.

(9) Stan Coveleski (11th)-- Ranks with Caruthers and McGinnity in my Hall of Just-Quite Meritorious.

(10) Hugh Duffy (13th)-- WS likes him better than a subjective eyeballing would suggest, but I can find no systematic reason why WS would overrate him. In fact, he gets a higher percentage of his teams' WARP's than their WS. I think WS is just doing a good job picking up the value of his defense, baserunning, in-season durability, and intangibles for a championship team that regularly exceded Pythagoras's expectations.

(11) Frank Chance (12th)-- Wish he'd played more, but his rate and winner's sheen beat the rest of this pack.

(12) Lip Pike (14th)-- Summary of what I've said in the past: Like, don't love.

(13) Jake Beckley (15th)-- Think WS underrates his defensive value; with appropriate adjustments, his peak is just good enough to get him on my radar screen.

(14) Jimmy Ryan (off)-- Very similar to Beckley in my book (in terms of both offensive and defensive value).

(15) Vic Willis (off)-- Feel like the next best pitcher somehow deserves this very competitive slot; could just as easily have been Bresnahan, Doyle, Monroe, McGraw, Poles, Griffin, Carey, Jones, or Welch.

On further review, Mays was helped too much by his teams and slots in somewhere around Joss and Shocker (around 25th-35th). Carey on the other hand benefits from further review--I like him a lot better than Hooper and have him battling Mike Griffin for the title of best defense-first OF; right now I have them 17th and 18th.

Most eveybody who is in the top 20 is under serious consideration for me. The one big exception is Rube Waddell, who I would turn down if offered in a trade for any of about 15 other pitchers on the ballot.
   39. PhillyBooster Posted: September 22, 2004 at 06:20 PM (#869079)
Okay. I haven't placed Max Carey yet, but I've placed 15 guys above him, so that's good enough for me to vote.

1. Eddie Collins (1) -- Greatest second baseman on the ballot. Also, greatest second baseman of all time.
2. Pop Lloyd (2) -- Greatest Negro Leaguer on the ballot. Also, greast Negro League player to date
3. Joe Williams (3) -- Greatest pitcher on the Ballot. Greatest Negro League pitcher to date.
4. Jake Beckley (6) -- Greatest non-new player on the ballot.
5. Mickey Welch (7) -- Greatest 19th century player on the ballot
6. Cristobal Torriente (8) -- Greatest Cuban player on the ballot
7. Jose Mendez (9) -- Greatest Cuban pitcher on the ballot
8. Gavy Cravath (10) -- Greatest PCL, American Association, and dead-ball slugger on the ballot.
9. Lip Pike (11) -- Greatest NA player on the ballot
10. Roger Bresnahan (12) -- Greatest catcher on the ballot.
11. Pete Browning (13) -- Greatest AA star on the ballot.
12. Bill Monroe (14) -- Went from #1 black player on the ballot to #4.
13. Clark Griffith (15) -- Greatest 1890s pitcher on the ballot.
14. Heinie Groh (off) -- Top eligible third baseman, unless Ed Williamson was better.
15. Ed Cicotte (off) -- either he or Coveleski was getting #15. I've tried numerous ways to compare the two near-contemporaries. Ed keeps poking out ahead.

Carey is somewhere is the 16-20 range, leaving

16/17. Coveleski; 17/18. Childs; 18/19. van Haltren; 19/20. Chance.

Carl Mays is no Rube Waddell, who is no Stan Coveleski, who is no Ed Cicotte, who is no Eppa Rixey, who is no Red Faber.

Mays might be Burleigh Grimes, though. That and 50 bucks lets him take Mrs. Grimes out to dinner.
   40. OCF Posted: September 22, 2004 at 07:00 PM (#869168)
... who is no Stan Coveleski, ... , who is no Eppa Rixey, who is no Red Faber.

Personally, I have all of Coveleski, Rixey, Faber, Vance, and Ruffing very, very close to each other. In my case, Cicotte drops to a little below that. But yes, Mays might be Grimes - Mays was a better hitter, but Grimes wasn't too bad at that. Neither one is likely to make my ballot.
   41. andrew siegel Posted: September 22, 2004 at 07:26 PM (#869232)
I'm sensing that I'm the best friend Burleigh Grimes is going to have. From 1918 to 1931, he went 252-170, a full HoM career. As a prime voter and someone who doesn't really believe in subtracting much for below replacement seasons, I'm not inclined to hold against him his 18-42 record in partial seasons at the beginning and end of his career.
   42. PhillyBooster Posted: September 22, 2004 at 07:27 PM (#869236)
Yeah, my point was generally one of allocation of resources. With so many excellent players bouncing around, one has to ask oneself: "What are the repercussions of not giving Player X a thorough enough evaluation?"

With Max Carey, he appears (to me, at least) clearly the best uninducted centerfielder from his era. I spent a while agonizing over whether he was ballot-worthy or not.

Mays is clearly not the best uninducted pitcher of his era. When (if) everyone better than he is inducted, I would come back and spend more time studying him. As it is now, spending time on him is just taking time I could be spending re-analyzing Carey, who I'm still not 100% sure is high enough.

That's sort of what I did with Ed Cicotte. He really didn't impress me when he first came on the ballot. But, as time went on, I noticed that after Johnson (inducted two years ago) and Alexander (inducted next year, I assume), he was the best pitcher of the teens. And besides that, it's hard to figure out who the fourth best was after him.

Maybe after some taller trees are cut down, Mays will stand out in the forest. As it is now, I don't think it's worthwhile to take very many new measurements.
   43. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 22, 2004 at 07:31 PM (#869244)
I'm sensing that I'm the best friend Burleigh Grimes is going to have. .

He should be in my top ten his first year, Andrew, at the bottom.
   44. dan b Posted: September 22, 2004 at 07:39 PM (#869260)
From dan b's ballot:
14.Burns (3)

I'd say we should count that as a vote for George J. Burns, outfielder. Any objections?


My apologies to the ballot counters, George J. Burns is correct
   45. jhwinfrey Posted: September 22, 2004 at 09:45 PM (#869494)
observation: jhwinfrey, you may take the award for most "pro Negro league" ballot. Eight out of 15

It could have been 9--Bingo DeMoss was on my preliminary ballot. :)
   46. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 23, 2004 at 03:05 AM (#870842)
Official 1935 Ballot
These guys have all been on my ballot before. I haven’t seen anything new that makes me want change their relative order a whole lot.
1. Eddie Collins—It’s still a difficult choice to rank the top 3. His numbers are so good that I can’t put the Negro Leaguers ahead of him, given the incomplete knowledge of their stats.
2. Smokey Joe Williams— Waiting for next year?
3. Pop Lloyd— The decision to have Collins #1 was easier to make than to put Williams ahead of Lloyd.
4. Lip Pike— I’m wondering if he’s going to be in my top ten for the next 70 “years.”
5. Stan Coveleski DERA and WS are very similar to Waddell, sizeable edge to Stan in Translated IP.
6. Rube Waddell Close to, but definitely behind, Coveleski.
7. Addie Joss Stellar pitcher. Short-ish career can’t mask his dominance.
8. Pete Browning Looks like the best pure hitter not in the HoM.
9. Cristobal Torriente Just because I have him at #9 doesn’t mean I think he wasn’t a superstar.
10. Ben Taylor— A star—not quite on Torriente’s level, but I think he was a lot better than Beckley.
11. Hughie Jennings Love the peak, lack of career keeps him out of the top 10.
12. Roger Bresnahan— Still the best catcher out there.
13. Jose Mendez—Well below Smokey Joe, but still an excellent pitcher.
14. Fred Dunlap 2nd best 2nd baseman on the ballot.
15. Charley Jones Well above the outfield glut.

Top 10 Returnees not on ballot:
Groh just misses at #17. GVH—#38—doesn’t stand out enough from the other outfielders and Beckley, #52, had a nice career, but not enough to have him close to my top 15.
Notable newcomers:
#26—Max Carey is close to Zack Wheat, whom I did not rank as high as most. His peak is not phenomenal, but his longevity gives him a boost. His SB rate is impressive, esp. considering how bad everyone else was during that period.
#54—Carl Mays would be much higher if I only looked at his WS. WARP3 is not all that friendly to him. He winds up somewhere in-between the extremes. #55—Howard Emke appears to be very similar to Mays by all the BP stats, but not that close in WS. I kept him right behind Mays.
#71—Bingo DeMoss'reputation is hard to reconcile with the existing data about his offense. I’m considering moving him up on reputation alone. Right now I see him as the Black Johnny Evers.
#75—Ken Williams was a good outfielder but he’s hurt by not getting regular playing time until he was 29.
   47. DanG Posted: September 23, 2004 at 04:51 AM (#870997)
My #1 and #2 were elected again. We are now about one-third of the way through this project, our 38th election out of 115 total (projecting the 2012 election as our last, in September 2007). New exhibits for Carey and Hooper. In 1935, Max Carey, Carl Mays and Bingo DeMoss debut. The backlog grows in 1936 as Alexander and Heilmann lead another stellar group that also includes Sisler, Bancroft and Marcelle. The crowding continues in 1937 as Redding, Roush and Schang pile on.

1)Eddie Collins (3,ne,ne) – Probably the best 2B of all-time.

2)John Lloyd (4,ne,ne) – Another inner-circle HoMer. His peak age was in the early 1910’s, so he was a deadball player. It’s good to remember this when looking at his hitting, as well as the fact that he was 36 years old in 1920 when the Negro National League was founded. If I’m not mistaken, most of the well-known eyewitness accounts of his play are from the 20’s, when he was well past his prime.

3)Smokey Joe Williams (5,ne,ne) – Easily the best pitcher on the ballot. But will that be true next year? He was also a deadball player, a year younger than Lloyd, two years older than Alexander. This thought occurs: did any team in the Federal League consider breaking the color barrier?

4)Cristobel Torriente (6,ne,ne) – Everything points to him being a HoMer. Either him, Mackey or Suttles will be the next NeLer in the Cooperstown Baseball Hall.

5)Lip Pike (7,3,2) –If the HoM is about respect for all eras, then Pike is a “n-b”. IMO, his era is very underrepresented and he seems unchallenged as the best remaining candidate. Number of HoMers playing regularly during his career:
1866: 2 (Pearce, Start)
1867: 3 (the above 2 plus Wright)
1868: 5 (above 3, Barnes, Spalding)
1869: 7 (above 5, White, McVey)
1870: 8 (above 7, Sutton)
1871: 9 (above 8, Anson)
1872: 10 (above 9, O’Rourke)
1873: 11 (above 10, Hines)
1874: 11
1875: 11
1876: 10 (Pearce token)
1877: 9 (Barnes injured)
1878: 11 (Start, Wright, White, McVey, Sutton, Anson, O’Rourke, Hines, Bennett, Kelly, Ward)

In 1879 it explodes to 16; in 1881 it hits 20 and stays at 18+ until the teens.

Slugging average .300+, age 30+, 1876-82, minimum 600 PA:

1—.420 Lip Pike
2—.387 Joe Start
3—.386 Jim O’Rourke
4—.378 Deacon White

5—.331 Bob Ferguson
6—.327 Ezra Sutton
7—.311 Andy Leonard
8—.302 George Wright

The rest of these guys wouldn’t be bad HoMers, but I can’t justify ranking any of them among the top five, above my personal “Clearly deserving” line.

6)George Van Haltren (8,4,3)—The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 27th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan actually played more corner outfield. Players with 2500 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

5—2840 H. Duffy
6—2837 D. Hoy
7—2774 C. Childs
8—2688 J. Beckley
9—2581 H. Long
10—2504 J. Ryan

7) Tommy Leach (9,5,4) – With 3B and CF lagging in HoM members, you’d think he’d get more attention. If you’re a FOBW, I don’t think you can ignore this guy. Question of league quality knocks him back a couple pegs, otherwise really close to Wallace. Had a better peak than Bobby, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Most Times On Base 1902-10:
1—2173 H. Wagner
2—1952 S. Crawford
3—1845 J. Sheckard
4—1843 N. Lajoie

5—1809 T. Hartsel
6—1772 R. Thomas
7—1754 F. Clarke
8—1736 T. Leach

8)Clark Griffith (10,6,5) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Could hit a little, too. Pitchers with highest OPS as hitters 1894-1903, minimum 500 PA:
1—.796 J. Stivetts
2—.696 A. Orth
3—.689 W. Mercer
4—.684 J. Meekin
5—.676 J. Tannehill
6—.673 N. Callahan
7—.650 C. Griffith
8—.646 F. Dwyer
9—.643 F. Killen

9)Max Carey – Could move up. His career win shares and WARP3 are very similar to Heilmann’s. He missed most of the 1919 season due to injury or illness (sources conflict). Why did his career suddenly nosedive after 1925? Is there any reason to doubt the conclusion that he was a scintillating fielder? Outfielders with 225+ assists, 1911-2004:
1—383 Tris Speaker
2—338 Max Carey
3—300 Harry Hooper
4—278 Sam Rice
5—276 Ty Cobb
6—266 Roberto Clemente
7—257 Mel Ott
8—247 Paul Waner
9—226 Cy Williams
   48. DanG Posted: September 23, 2004 at 04:51 AM (#870998)
10) Jimmy Ryan (11,7,6)—Played with St. Paul in Western Lg in 1901. Best Power-Speed Number, 1886-1920
1—184.0 J. Ryan
2—179.0 H. Duffy
3—177.2 H. Wagner
4—171.2 M. Tiernan
5—165.3 E. Delahanty
6—163.6 R. Connor
7—157.5 S. Thompson

8—155.5 H. Long
9—153.4 S. Crawford
10- 145.6 B. Dahlen


11) Roger Bresnahan (12,8,7) – Even with Santop, catcher is easily the most poorly represented position in the HOM, a condition that may prove to be chronic. Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .380, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker

4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas
8—.386 N. Lajoie
9—.382 M. Huggins

12)Harry Hooper (13,9,8) – Per adjusted win shares, his peak was better than Beckley’s. I see him at 34.5 for the abbreviated 1918 season. His 27.4 in 1916 is also better than Jake’s best, 26.6 in 1890. A couple bulk seasons at the end of his career in a weak NL give Beckley 28 more career AWS. Players with 2200+ Times On Base, 1910-20:
1—2907 Tris Speaker
2—2853 Eddie Collins
3—2800 Ty Cobb

4—2494 Harry Hooper
5—2476 Donie Bush
6—2349 Clyde Milan
7—2343 Joe Jackson
8—2219 Jake Daubert

13)Jake Beckley (14,10,9) – He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples are a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh; his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Hit only 34 of 86 career homes at home. Firstbasemen with 950+ RBI through 1926:

1--2076 Anson
2--1575 Beckley
3--1322 Connor
4--1296 Brouthers

5--1060 McInnis
6--992 Konetchy
7--968 J. Doyle
8--952 H. Davis

Beckley's total is still the 8th best all-time among firstbasemen. Besides Anson (#1 all-time) there's Gehrig, Foxx, Murray, Palmeiro, Perez and Killebrew ahead of Beckley. McCovey and McGriff round out the top ten. Bagwell and Thomas figure to join this group next season.

14)Heinie Groh (15,12,ne) – His hitting is in the HoMer class; glove looks pretty good. Played 2B two years, then 3B for ten yrs. Outstanding peak, similar career length to Williamson. Mediocre power and speed. Was replaced by Freddie Lindstrom as Giants’ 3B. Highest career FA, 3B, 1876-1927, minimum 750 games at 3B:

1—.967 H. Groh
2—.960 O. Vitt
3—.958 J. Dugan
4—.958 C. Deal
5—.956 P. Traynor
6—.952 B. Jones
7—.948 L. Gardner

15)Stan Coveleski (--,ne,ne) – Easily outshines Mays. Likely to move up. FWIW, Stan and Carl are each others most similar player (945). About a year ago I did a close look at Mays-Ferrell-Walters, having always assumed that Mays was the most deserving of the HOF of that trio. I ended up changing my mind and putting Mays 3rd. While his raw stats are superficially better than the other two, he played half his career in the deadball era while spending nearly his entire career with excellent teams.
   49. Daryn Posted: September 23, 2004 at 01:37 PM (#871341)
Call me crazy, but I don't think we should have our 2012 election until 2012.
   50. karlmagnus Posted: September 23, 2004 at 01:45 PM (#871346)
We won't be able to have our 2012 election until 2010 or so at the earliest because of the Rickey Henderson and Ryne Sanberg cases (the latter a clear borderline HOMer) where they don't retire definitively. Probably 2007 will be our last, except to the extent that after 2007 we give ourselves acute intellectual divers' bends and revert to moving through history at the normal rate.
   51. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 23, 2004 at 01:56 PM (#871355)
and Ryne Sanberg cases (the latter a clear borderline HOMer)

Not enough hits, huh? :-)

I'll have him high on my ballot.
   52. PhillyBooster Posted: September 23, 2004 at 02:43 PM (#871406)
Well, technically the 2012 inductees would be voted on in 2011. I agree, though, that once we "catch up", we should stop.

Maybe then we can go back to the beginning and start voting on the oft-discussed-but-never-seen "Hall of Very Good"!
   53. karlmagnus Posted: September 23, 2004 at 03:06 PM (#871438)
You got it, John. Not a bad player, but no Jake Beckley :-))
   54. Brad G. Posted: September 23, 2004 at 03:06 PM (#871439)
1935 Ballot:

1.Eddie Collins- Maybe I’m wrong, but I still have Nap in front of him on the all-time 2B list

2.Pop Lloyd- Greatest Negro League SS.

3.Joe Williams- Easily one of the top three Negro League pitchers.

4.Cristobel Torriente- Greatest Negro League RF.

5.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 Centerfielder of all time. The difference between him and Van Haltren is slight, but Duffy looks to be the better to me.

6.Heinie Groh- Not the longest career, but a terrific peak and very nice Career WARP numbers.

7.Stan Coveleski- I had him way undervalued last year, a mistake I won’t make again.

8.Max Carey- Best of the newcomers. It’s a shame he’s a CF (so much competition in the outfield).

9.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS5 = 145.

10.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445.

11.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

12.Jimmy Ryan- - Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.

13.Pete Browning- Put up some monster offensive numbers, led by the 162 OPS+.

14.George J. Burns- Had a real nice career. Career WARP3= 63.3, Black Ink= 33, Gray= 165.

15.Bobby Veach- Veach and Burns are real close. Career WARP3 = 82.1, Black Ink= 22, Gray= 170.

16-20: Griffith, Cravath, Bresnahan, Leach, Mays

Lip Pike? He's still got a ways to go... far too many CFs ranked ahead of him to break into the top 20 at this time.

Thanks!
   55. robc Posted: September 23, 2004 at 06:25 PM (#871955)
1. Eddie Collins - Collins moves from #4 to #1, edging out Lloyd this year. Just the way the numbers worked out. Both should have been elected last year, except for those darn other guys.
2. Pop Lloyd - moves from #3 to #2.
3. Joe Williams - Going to be elected 2 years late, but thems the breaks.
4. Cristobal Torriente - Need to look closer next year to make sure I have him placed correctly. Dont really see anyone below him passing him though.
5. Lave Cross - reevaluated the down ballot guys this year. Cross moves back to the top of my "others" section. Good, but not great career, good, but not great peak, plays an underrepresented position.
6. Max Carey - Barely beaten out by Cross. First year caution probably holding him down a bit. Might move up next year. Clearly the best of the OF glut.
7. Harry Hooper - Im surprised at his lack of support. Lets see if he makes a few more ballots after we clear off the top.
8. Heinie Groh - Better peak than Lave. Elected both would take care of that 3B problem.
9. Bobby Veach - At this point the OF glut starts to become near indistinguishable.
10. Ben Taylor - Like Torriente, need to look closer, but I think this is about right.
11. Stan Coveleski - This is probably the end of my in/out line.
12. Jake Beckley - nice career.
13. Cupid Childs - hi quality filler.
14. Fielder Jones - I said last time I would reevaluate him, and what do you know, he was too high. Too low on nearly everyone elses ballot.
15. Rube Waddell - Was in 16th on my prelim ballot, but I just couldnt vote for Bingo.
   56. robc Posted: September 23, 2004 at 06:26 PM (#871963)
Top 10 finishers:

Pike - not in my top 30. Last spotted tied for 30th with Browning at the ballot nadir.
   57. Rick A. Posted: September 23, 2004 at 06:35 PM (#872001)
John, Thanks for posting last years ballot. Took a while to catch up on the discussion, but here is my 1935 ballot.

PHOM
Smokey Joe Williams
Eddie Collins

1935 Ballot
1.Pop Lloyd – Only one thing stands out for me. People have compared him to Honus Wagner, and they’ve been taken seriously. Elected PHOM in 1934
2.Smokey Joe Williams – Looking forward to when Satchel Paige gets on the ballot to see who really was the best pitcher in Negro Leagues history.
3.Eddie Collins – As far as I’m concerned “Cocky” Collins had every right to be cocky.
4.Cristobal Torriente – Blows HOMer Pete Hill away. Great career and peak value.
5.Charley Jones – Very good hitter, though. 96% of value is above average. Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
6.Lip Pike – 95% of documented career is above average. Fresh look at Charley Jones, Pike, and Browning made me change my order of them. Elected PHOM in 1918.
7.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
8.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average.
9.Stan Coveleski – Not sure if I’m overrating him or underrating him. Need to see some more of his contemporaries to get a real handle on him.
10.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days.
11.Carl Mays – Just a hair behind Coveleski
12.Ed Williamson – Overvalued him in previous elections. Much closer to Groh and Leach than I thought. Still a damn good player, though. Elected PHOM in 1931
13.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense. Took another look at him and he moved up a couple of spots
14.Tommy Leach – Good peak and decent career. I’ll take Leach’s career over Groh’s peak.
15.Heinie Groh – Took a fresh look at Groh and other thirdbasemen. Very close to Leach, but I like Leach’s career a little more than Groh’s peak. A couple more years would’ve moved him up quite a bit.

Required Explanations
17.Clark Griffith – Won lots of games with bad teams. Just off the ballot
18.Max Carey – Not as much peak as I thought. Seems kind of like Van Haltren. SB's bumps him up some.
22.George Van Haltren –I tend to really like steady careers like Van Haltren, Griffin, Beckley, but just can’t see him jumping over anyone on my ballot.
40.Jake Beckley- I really like long careers. However his lack of prime value has him ranked lower than Van Haltren.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Mendez, Griffith, Carey, Cooper, Monroe
21-25 F. Jones, Van Haltren, Poles, Willis, Doyle
26-30 Tiernan, Waddell, Bresnahan, McGraw, Bond
31-35 Welch, Griffin, Chance, Burns, Veach
   58. KJOK Posted: September 23, 2004 at 07:09 PM (#872161)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers.

1. EDDIE COLLINS, 2B. .701 OWP. 822 RCAP. 12,039 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Have him as 2nd best 2nd baseman behind only Hornsby.

2. POP LLOYD, SS. Approx equiv. 121 OPS+ over estimated equiv. 13,000 PA’s. Comps slightly better than Joe Cronin, which puts him about 5th all-time among all SS’s.

3. SMOKEY JOE WILLIAMS, P. Comps close to Pete Alexander, which puts him about 7th all-time among all P’s.

4. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low.

5. PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than Van Haltren or Duffy.

6. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively.

7. STAN COVELESKIE, P. 282 RSAA! 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points. 127 ERA+ in 3,093 Innings.

8. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane/Dickey, except for maybe Santop.

9. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively.

10. RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings.

11. Cristobal Torriente, RF. Comps near Dwight Evans and Enos Slaughter.

12. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

13. HEINIE GROH, 3B. .598 OWP, 216 RCAP, 7,035 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Only Frank Baker was better in 1910’s era.

14. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Hack, Alomar, and Sandberg.

15. MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:
NEWBIES:
Ken Williams, LF .639 OWP, 282 RCAP, 5,614 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Over half of a HOM career.

Max Carey, CF .556 OWP, 49 RCAP, 10,770 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Some very good years, but overall not enough offense for the HOM ballot.

Carl Mays, P 184 RSAA, 168 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, and 119 ERA+ in 3,021 innings. Like for OF, the P “Hall of the very good” continues to fill up….

Bingo DeMoss, 2B Best comp is Johnny Evers.

RETURNEES:

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player.

LIP PIKE, CF. Perhaps best hitting CF of the 1870’s. Similar to Hack Wilson.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. He’s really not all that far away from McGinnity, but not that far from Silver King either.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Estimated batting career close to Jennings, but little evidence that he was quite as good as Jennings defensively.

LARRY DOYLE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times.

URBAN SHOCKER, P. 239 RSAA, 172 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, and 124 ER+ in 2,681 innings. Just needed a few more innings or a little better pitching to make ballot.


HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

JIMMY RYAN, CF/RF. .609 OWP. 205 RCAP. 9,114 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not quite up to top OF hitters, and only average defense won’t move him up.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

SPOTWOOD POLES, CF Estimated 117 OPS+ over 8,331 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Oscar Charleston and Pete Hill the only Negro League contemporary outfielders that were better. Comp somewhere around Cesar Cedeno.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being on ballot.


EDDIE CICOTTE, P. 183 RSAA, 209 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 123 ERA+ in 3,223 Innings. Not all that far from McGinnity in value/performance.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. Similar to Smoky Joe Wood. Like Wood, has some really great years early in his career, and like Wood changed positions due to arm problems (age 25 for Wood, 27 for Mendez, OF for Wood, SS for Mendez) and was never really a star player after that. I don’t think his best years were quite as good as Wood’s, and not sure he was really better than teammate Dolph Luque, so he falls short on the ballot.
   59. Al Peterson Posted: September 23, 2004 at 08:45 PM (#872516)
1935 ballot. Still adding great players to the HOM. Couple of new guys, neither make this ballot.

1. Eddie Collins (2). I had him in last year so nothing much has dissuaded me from the top spot.

2. Pop Lloyd (3). His name is thrown about as a top all-time SS. Once again, very nice place to be when wanting election.

3. Smokey Joe Williams (5). Sorry Mr. Williams. I feel bad but be patient.

4. Cristobal Torriente (6). Step above the glut; very worthy.

5. Rube Waddell (7). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. His 1902 season: 12-8 out in LA to start season, brought back to Philly by Connie Mack in June and went 24-7. That's a lot of pitching. Unique in that he controlled the game, via strikeouts, at a time when the ball was always put in play (dead-ball era).

6. Pete Browning (9). I'm probably not the harshest critic of AA league quality. Any way you look at it the Louisville Slugger is a top flight batsmen.

7. Hughie Jennings (8). Peak-riffic. SS with plenty of glove and bat, albeit for a short stretch of time.

8. Heinie Groh (10). Kinda a surprise when I analyzed him and got him to slot this highly. Positional leadership over others at 3B in the same era is the key here.

9. Stan Coveleski (11).
Places well with current eligibles between Waddell and Griffith.

10. Jimmy Ryan (12). I start my OF glut about here.

11. George Van Haltren (13). His time has probably come and gone for getting into the HOM.

12. Jake Beckley (16). Still no 1B have jumped greatly ahead of him so that shows something about his worth.

13. John McGraw (14). Limited playing time but what he did with it is nonetheless outstanding. Positional bump as well. Cons include just not playing enough but was on base all the time when participating.

14. Hugh Duffy (17). Couple of great spikes to go with other uneven performances. Gets bump based on contemporary opinion as being one heck of a ballplayer. Win Shares love the D.

15. Cupid Childs (15). He's always bounced between being on the ballot and off. I'm keeping a gap between him and Doyle as I feel he was the better of the two. From that underrepresented period of the 1890s.

Whos down below:
16-20: Griffin, Leach, Griffith, Veach, Poles
21-25: Carey, Mullane, Doyle, Bresnahan, Mendez
26-30: Welch, Tiernan, Taylor, Willis, Cravath
31-35: Pike, Moore, Hooper, Dunlap, C Jones
36-40: F Jones, Mays, Chance, Shocker, Hooper

Carey is mid-glut for OF; pretty good glove and legs make up for weaker bat. Mays did some nice things but I don't see enough. Maybe I'll sway a little on him. Pike is not high for me - no new reasons just don't feel he played long enough in a well established league.
   60. DanG Posted: September 24, 2004 at 03:58 AM (#873925)
Daryn:

Call me crazy, but I don't think we should have our 2012 election until 2012.

karlmagnus:

We won't be able to have our 2012 election until 2010 or so at the earliest because of the Rickey Henderson and Ryne Sanberg cases (the latter a clear borderline HOMer) where they don't retire definitively. Probably 2007 will be our last, except to the extent that after 2007 we give ourselves acute intellectual divers' bends and revert to moving through history at the normal rate.

PhillyBooster:

Well, technically the 2012 inductees would be voted on in 2011. I agree, though, that once we "catch up", we should stop.


I guess it's all in how you conceptualize the project. If you see it as an open-ended, perpetual deal then sure, you wouldn't want to jump ahead.

I see it as being over when we've done as many elections as we reasonably can.

Say that we get to the fall of 2007 and we decide to have the 2008 elections a couple months ahead of the BBWAA. Then what? Put the HoM on the shelf for a year? Why not go ahead and finish the project? At that point, we'll know who last played in 2003 and 2004 and 2005. Why wait? Retirees in 2006 might still come back and play but, what the heck, let's go ahead and finish up the project with one more election. If someone unretires, oh well, no biggie, the guy certainly deserved election anyway.

The only way I could see NOT going ahead would be if this projects realizes the dream of gaining such notice that it is regarded by many in the baseball world as the truly legitimate Hall, replacing that abomination residing in Cooperstown. If that happens, that people are looking at us because what we're doing is viewed with greater importance than that other Hall's election, then yeah, give them that annual anticipation.

Hey, why not dream? If the Cooperstown Baseball Hall doesn't get their act together, someone's gonna replace them eventually.
   61. Rob_Wood Posted: September 24, 2004 at 05:15 AM (#874131)
My 1935 ballot:

1. Eddie Collins -- an all time great
2. Pop Lloyd -- a lesser known all time great
3. Smokey Joe Williams -- ditto
4. Cristobal Torriente -- only slightly lesser great
5. Max Carey -- I cannot believe voters have him so low
6. Jake Beckley -- me and Jake all the way
7. Larry Doyle -- very good hitting second sacker
8. Rube Waddell -- great strikeout hurler
9. Addie Joss -- great control and Whip
10. Lip Pike -- only early star I'm still voting for
11. Stan Coveleski -- very good career
12. Urban Shocker -- very good curtailed career
13. Heinie Groh -- overfamous for his bat
14. Cupid Childs -- star 1890's second baseman
15. Harry Hooper -- decent bottom of ballot filler
   62. Rusty Priske Posted: September 24, 2004 at 12:26 PM (#874495)
Why would we stop just because we are caught up? As long as BTF is continuing, why not continue with one ballot per year?

And why would we ever choose to jump AHEAD of schedule? There are good reasons that there is a delay after the player retires. Those reasons don't go away just because we don't want to wait.
   63. Howie Menckel Posted: September 24, 2004 at 12:54 PM (#874497)
Yeah, I'd say once we catch up we just go to one election per year, like they do.

Kind of the online version of, "Same Time Next Year."
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2004 at 01:21 PM (#874521)
Yeah, I'd say once we catch up we just go to one election per year, like they do.

Sounds like the only sensible thing to do, IMO.
   65. robc Posted: September 24, 2004 at 01:58 PM (#874567)
That waiting time each year (at least for the first few) after we catch up can be used to elect other categories. For example, if we catch up in 2007, we can start manager discussions, and over the next year or two, catch up on the manager wing of the HoM. Then the pioneer wing, then the Japanese wing, etc.
   66. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2004 at 02:36 PM (#874605)
All-time team/franchise lineups?
   67. karlmagnus Posted: September 24, 2004 at 03:08 PM (#874653)
Repeat the process in reverse, heading backwards into prehistory, and see if we end up with the same HOM ;-))
   68. Evan Posted: September 24, 2004 at 03:15 PM (#874663)
Cart, meet horse. Horse, meet cart.
   69. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2004 at 03:15 PM (#874665)
Repeat the process in reverse, heading backwards into prehistory, and see if we end up with the same HOM ;-))

:-)
   70. Daryn Posted: September 24, 2004 at 03:23 PM (#874680)
DanG,

I'm not often labelled a dreamer, but I do think our project will have wide recognition in our lifetimes. By 2027, we will have been doing this parallel to the Hall for 20 years. Our electees will include some living players. Given the wealth of our electorate (there are a lot of lawyers and entrepreneurs and other professionals here who will have accumulated a lot of wealth by 2020), I don't think it is ridiculous to think there will actually be a Hall of Merit in our lifetimes, with actual plaques and actual induction ceremonies.

I think Aurora, Ontario would be a good site for the Hall. If we don't want to fund it ourselves, we could call it the Magna Hall of Merit -- or pick your local business.

Maybe I'm the only one, but I think this'll happen.
   71. karlmagnus Posted: September 24, 2004 at 03:53 PM (#874740)
Daryn, I'm all in favor of optimism, but I don't know what makes you think that a bunch of guys who spend all their waking hours researching 100 year old baseball players are going to be rich by 2020 :-))

Perosnally, I expect to be poorer in 2020 than I am now. That's what's happened over the last 20 years. :-((
   72. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2004 at 04:03 PM (#874759)
I expect to be 55 in 2020. Everything else is up in the air. :-)
   73. Howie Menckel Posted: September 24, 2004 at 04:11 PM (#874774)
Sometimes I think about writing about this place.

But there is a mixed blessing that comes with becoming more 'popular.'
So far it's just a place where anyone who can find it probably will wind up being a quality voter.
Send it out to the masses, and does it all get away from us, with dozens of new Frankie Frisches joining up every year? I don't know.
   74. Daryn Posted: September 24, 2004 at 06:08 PM (#875055)
I, for one, like this size. I think it'll still be good up to a 100 -- after that, who knows.
   75. OCF Posted: September 24, 2004 at 07:13 PM (#875208)
Right now, what about the number of voters this year? Already Friday afternoon and only 31 ballots. Where is everyone?
   76. Howie Menckel Posted: September 24, 2004 at 09:28 PM (#875456)
Yom Kippur is just starting, so expect a further delay from some precincts (not me, in spite of the nom de plume).
I guess a big rush on Sunday?
   77. Michael Bass Posted: September 24, 2004 at 11:46 PM (#875679)
Mainly WARP3, with some Win Shares emphasis to my analysis. OPS+ and RA+ (basically ERA+ with an eye out for high unearned run totals) are also used as a sanity check.

Partial rework this week. Soon, when I get some time, the OF glut is gonna be reworked, too. No newcomers this week. Mays does nothing for me, and Carey for now is in the middle of the glut just off the ballot.


1. Joe williams (2) - To me, between Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander in value. That puts him on top, but obviously 1-3 are a no lose situation.

2. Eddie Collins (4) - Probably the greatest second baseman ever.

3. John Henry Lloyd (5) - Some questions over the quality of his bat knock him down to here, but no further. Amazing player, and one with a solid argument to be ranked #1.

4. Cristobal Torriente (6) - Clearly the #6 player on this ballot, an amazing hitter and a good fielder. Significantly better than Pete Hill (who I liked), only Santop from those NLers who came before would be above him, and even he wouldn't be by much.

5. Hughie Jennings (7) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

6. Heinie Groh (8) - Great player, great peak, position where we could use some inductees.

7. Stan Coveleski (9) - Great pitcher with whom I wasn't even all that familiar. Great peak, obvious HOMer (I assume all of these top 7 except Jennings are going in eventually).

8. Spotswood Poles (13) - A slightly lesser Pete Hill. Very worthy of election. Dropoff in my rankings both before him and after him (much like Torriente).

9. Jose Mendez (15) - Very similar to Waddell pitching-wise. His hitting moves him to one spot above him. Correction for my chronic undervaluing of pitchers moves him up this week.

10. Rube Waddell (off ballot) - Moves up with Mendez. Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me.

11. Pete Browning (off ballot) - Never been on my ballot before. I reexamined the 3 "bat" candidates from the earlier days, him, Jones, and Pike, and Browning comes out on top. Just one hell of a hitter.

12. Bobby Veach (12) - Currently the #1 name of the OF glut (not counting the Negro Leaguers). Love his peak, was super-strong both offensively and defensively.

13. Hugh Duffy (10) - Hugh was a strong hitter with a good offensive peak and a hell of a defender. A+ rating from Win Shares, despite playing more corner than center? Sign me up. Still moves down some this week.

14. Fielder Jones (14) - I guess I like defense more than the group as a whole, but he had 4 really nice seasons in the midst of a nice career.

15. Mike Griffin (11) - About the same level hitter as Duffy, just not quite as long of a peak. Very nice defender, too, almost entirely in center.



Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. Would be a terrible choice for election.

Pike - Re-examined him, and it just didn't work out. Think Browning is the better choice. Not saying he'll never make my ballot, but he's back in the queue at this point.

Van Haltren - Looking a little light on peak for me at the moment. Could work his way back into the mix when I get around to looking at the OF glut.
   78. OCF Posted: September 24, 2004 at 11:52 PM (#875703)
4. Cristobal Torriente (6) - Clearly the #6 player on this ballot ...

Ah, the hazards of copying a comment written for one year onto the next year's ballot. I've done that, too.
   79. Michael Bass Posted: September 25, 2004 at 12:44 AM (#875934)
Yep, hardly my first time either. :)
   80. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 25, 2004 at 04:01 AM (#876757)
1935 ballot:

1. Eddie Collins (PHOM 1935)
2. John Henry Lloyd (ditto)
Last year, we elected two great centerfielders. This year, we may be electing a what-might-have-been keystone combo. Of course, Collins might have had as little to say to Lloyd as Evers did to Tinker.

3. Smokey Joe Williams: And he should go in next year with Pete Alexander.

4. Mickey Welch: The only “smudge” I see on Welch’s record is that pesky ERA+. Everything else I see says HOM. (PHOM 1929)

5. Cristobal Torriente: Terrific hitter. Also a top defender. The next guy wasn’t so good at the latter.

6. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. (PHOM 1927)

7. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. (PHOM 1926)

8. Roger Bresnahan: The HOM needs catchers. (PHOM 1932)

9. Heinie Groh: More career at 3b and a better WS rate than Leach. HOM needs thirdbasemen, too.

10. Stan Coveleski: I find him roughly comparable to Griffith, but with more good seasons, so he’s ahead

11. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

12. Larry Doyle: Solid offensive credentials. Defense? Well, McGraw was apparently happy with him at 2b.

13. Max Carey: Tremendous base-stealer, A+ defense, long career. My first impression was to slot him even higher, but it didn’t turn out that way. Enters at the top of the horde of outfielders.

14. Carl Mays: He’s pretty close to Coveleski, but with a different career pattern. Mays likely had the benefit of a better environment. He created some of that environment with his own bat.

15. Ben Taylor: Similar to Beckley? Works for me. Reminds me of Sisler, also.


Formerly on the ballot, now waiting in the wings: Leach, Duffy, Mendez, Monroe, Childs, Waddell, Poles, and Lip Pike (only top 10er from 1934 left off my ballot).

New notables:
Bingo DeMoss: Great defender, but not much bat. He looks at best like Frank White.
Ken Williams: Not enough career, even with war credit. An early adopter of the power game.
George H. Burns: Not good enough and probably not funny enough. Goodnight, George.
   81. EricC Posted: September 25, 2004 at 01:25 PM (#876961)
1935 ballot.

Season-by-season ratings for each player determined by rate of performance relative to peers in the same season, based on win shares per plate appearance (for batters) or ERA+ (for pitchers), corrected for league strength. The best string of consecutive seasons (the "prime") is then determined for each player. Final ratings are based on a combination of the strength and length of the prime.

1. Eddie Collins (N-3 last year) Best 2B to date.

2. John Henry Lloyd (N-4)
3. Joe Williams (N-5)

The first Negro League candidates who I am completely confident about. Long careers of excellence.

4. Stan Coveleski (N-6) Perhaps the litmus test of how deep we will go in 1910-1930 era pitchers. While part of me doesn't think it's fair that legal spitball pitchers such as Shocker, Coveleski, and Faber do so well in my system, I have to like Coveleski's 3082 IP and 127 ERA+.

5. Cristobal Torriente (N-7) I would think that he would have to be elected to Cooperstown eventually. His career stats look like those of a HoFer who was kept out of the major leagues.

6. Roger Bresnahan (3-8) Best catcher of the 00s.

7. Jake Beckley (4-9) Considering that 1B was not a hitter's position for much of his career, he did have enough peak to make him HoM-worthy. At least Sisler will take over the title of most controversial 1B candidate next year.

8. Harry Hooper (6-11) Longevity, defense, and AL strength. Hey, I'm not saying that players like Hooper and Schalk are the most appealing, but that there is a consistent logic that shows them as ballot-worthy rather than obvious HoF mistakes.

9. George "Rube" Waddell (5-10) 142 ERA+; 3 ERA+ titles; 6 consecutive strikeout titles. Most similar batter is Stan Coveleski.

10. Jose Mendez (11-X) Add Holway's W/L data from 1910 to 1913 and Mendez was 59-19, and he was still capable of dominating a decade later.

11. Eddie Cicotte (7-12) 3223 IP; 123 ERA+; 1 ERA+ title, came in second twice to Walter Johnson, and once to Babe Ruth(!).

12. Ray Schalk (12-14) Does well in longevity, defense, and league strength. Possibly more (over)correction for catchers in my system than in most, but the fact that he also makes baseballreality's MLB timeline is evidence that he's not an outright mistake.

13. Urban Shocker (13-X) One reason that he makes my ballot is that he never had a bad year. Bad years and inconsistency hurt players in my system. I've never understood why some systems include best N nonconsecutive years as part of their ratings.

14. Heinie Groh (8-13) Great 3B at his peak. Peak not as sustained as I'd like, so I have him slightly lower than most, but, still, a pat on the back to the electorate for recognizing his excellence.

15. George Van Haltren (9-15) Pitching value and the fact that he played more centerfield lifts him just above Ryan.

16. Ryan: Van Haltren's near clone.
17. Sol White
18. Pike: Knocked out by recent strong newcomers; should return in weaker years.
19. Duffy
20. Childs
21. Griffith: Next best 1890s pitcher.
22. Jennings: I like Hughie, and may tweak my ratings in the coming years to be a little more peak-friendly, which will help him.

Max Carey: Not enough peak. It's nice to see that I'm not the only one who feels that 351 Wins Shares is not equal to the sum of its parts in this case. If you want more of an explanation, note that leadoff hitters are overrated by win shares, etc. because they have more opportunities to bat than the average player.

Welch: Based on percentage of innings pitched by 1880s HoM NL pitchers, 1880s pitching may be overrepresented in the HoM.

Browning: Reasonable discount for AA stats, lack of defense, consistent team underachievement (reflected in Win Shares), and career shortness, gives career length/value/shape most similar to Roy Thomas, Ken Williams, Chick Stahl, and Topsy Hartsel. A very good player, but would be a major mistake to elect to the HoM. I urge all "go with the flow types" who are considering putting Browning on their ballots to look at the big picture and reconsider.
   82. favre Posted: September 25, 2004 at 09:03 PM (#877392)
1.Eddie Collins
2.John Henry Lloyd
3.Joe Williams
4.Cristobal Torriente

I had Lloyd ahead of Collins on the last ballot, but changed my mind this year. They are close in value, but the evidence suggests Collins was a significantly better hitter. Not that it makes any difference whatsoever…as others have noted, Pop was likely the second best shortstop in history, which gives him a subjective edge over Williams.

Give a 5% i9’s discount to Torriente, and he created 1435 runs; Duke Snider created 1436. There’s all sorts of difficulties with that comparison, but I like the analogy: Torriente’s Snider to Cobb’s Mantle and Speaker’s Mays.

5.Lip Pike
6.Jake Beckley

If Torriente was the Duke, then Pike was Dick Allen: outstanding hitter at an important defensive position, fairly short career, underrated by his peers because he was huge pain in the butt.

I understand why Beckley is as welcome to peak voters as the Dixie Chicks would be at the Republican National Convention. But I’m not really a peak voter, and Jake’s a good career pick. He has 316 unadjusted Win Shares, which modified for schedule length would be, what, 330-340 WS? Not a lock, but hardly an embarrassment to the HoM. His WARP3 career score is good (87.1). He had 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. His career grey ink is good, and he has very good counting stats; I know we have to take the 90s level of offense into account, but 2900 hits/1600runs/1500 RBI certainly doesn’t discourage me from putting him high on the ballot. His era is underrepresented as it is, and I can’t imagine inducting another first baseman who played between 1897 and 1915. I’m sold.

7.Stan Coveleski
8.Clark Griffith

I see these two as very comparable players; Coveleski pitched more innings compared to his contemporaries, so I’ve placed him above Griffith.

9.Heinie Groh
10.Tommy Leach
11.Rube Waddell

Leach has 324 career WS. We’ve elected every position player with more career Win Shares except Van Haltren (and now Carey), and Haltren’s WS (344) are distorted by his pitching stint. He played near flawless CF/3B and hit in a low offense era. I’m more and more convinced that he belongs. Groh was an even better player than Leach in his prime, and moves ahead of Tommy.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

12.Ned Williamson
13.Hugh Jennings
14.Pete Browning
15. Cupid Childs

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better.

If you give Browning a healthy AA discount (obviously a matter of contention), then he was a comparable player to Sam Thompson: relatively short career, not much defense, but a very good hitter.

16.Larry Doyle
17. Mickey Welch
18.Spotswood Poles
19.Hugh Duffy
20.George Van Haltren
21.George Burns
22.Mike Tiernan
23.Jimmy Ryan
24.Charley Jones
25.Jim McCormick
26.Jose Mendez
27.Max Carey

Not a bad player, but there are at least seven centerfielders on this ballot who were better than Carey, and that doesn’t include two contemporaries, Cobb and Speaker.

33. Carl Mays Better than many of his contemporaries, including Wilbur Cooper and Urban Shocker.
   83. Brent Posted: September 26, 2004 at 01:27 AM (#878077)
1. Eddie Collins: Best second baseman to date; arguably the best ever.

2. Smokey Joe Williams: While I can’t say with certainty where he ranks among the all-time great pitchers, I know he’s one of them.

3. John Henry Lloyd: What a wonderful, wonderful generation of shortstops was active during the aughts and teens. Led by the two greatest shortstops ever -- Wagner and Lloyd -- other outstanding SS included Bancroft, Bush, Chapman, Dahlen, Davis, Fletcher, Long, Lundy, Maranville, Peckinpaugh, Tinker, and Wallace.

4. Cristóbal Torriente: Would have been # 1 on my ballot three “years” ago.

5. Hughie Jennings: My ballot is getting a bit outfielder heavy, so I decided to give the infielders a modest boost. Jennings is the best qualified infielder other than Lloyd, and possibly could edge out Lloyd for second highest peak value of any shortstop ever (after Wagner).

6. Hugh Duffy: Those who worship at the altar of OPS+ are missing half the story on Duffy. A great defensive player both according to the statistics and the reputation.

A recent article by studes on The Hardball Times (with discussion on BTF) is particularly relevant to Duffy’s candidacy. Studes argues that WS are particularly relevant to awards (he’s talking about MVP, but I think the same argument applies to HOM) because they include all of a team’s runs and wins, while conventional statistics leave some unaccounted for. When you look at Duffy’s OPS+ for 1892 and 1893 you see good, but not historic, seasons (125 each year). According to WS, however, he looks fantastic -- the best outfielder in the only major league in 1892, and tied with Delahanty for best position player in 1893. The reason for this difference is that Boston was “doubly efficient” both seasons. Each season the Beaneaters scored about 70-80 more runs than would be expected based on their OPS, and they also exceeded their Pythagorean projections by 8 wins each season. When a team exceeds its run expectation or its Pythagorean projection, it means that its players are making unmeasured contributions -- things like reaching base on errors, advancing extra bases on hits, hitting well in clutch situations; in the 1890s they also included things we measure now, like avoiding double plays and caught stealing. These contributions represent a combination of luck and skill, which we will never be able to separate; but wins count just as much when they involve a dose of luck. Both seasons Duffy was the team’s best hitter, so it seems only fair that some of the credit for these unmeasured contributions be attributed to him. For me, the crediting of all of a team’s wins to its players is one of the most attractive features of WS and one of the reasons I make use of them in my ratings.

Frank Selee’s Boston Beaneaters (the greatest team of the 1890s) and Chicago Cubs (where he laid the foundation for the greatest team of the deadball era) were built on a foundation of:
- Defense, defense, defense. I have the impression that, if possible, he would have played 3 center fielders in the outfield and 4 shortstops in the infield.
- At least one great pitcher, with the rest of the staff filled with control pitchers who could benefit from having a great set of gloves behind them.
- As much offense as he could get without compromising the defense.

While in modern baseball it is unusual for a championship team to be built around glove men, before WWII it was a common and successful strategy. Besides Selee, this formula was used by Harry Wright, by Bill McKechnie (who led pennant winners in Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Cincinnati), and by the Hitless Wonders of Fielder Jones. Other successful managers of the era, such as Hanlon, McGraw, and Mack, preferred more balance between offense and defense, but still didn’t slight the defense. The success of these defense-oriented teams is one of the reasons I emphasize defense in my ratings.

7. José Méndez: Bumped him up a little. The record suggests that Méndez spent five years as a completely dominating pitcher – a period of dominance that is really quite rare and starts to move him toward must-elect territory. Except for Williams, the other pitching candidates can claim only two to four seasons at this level.

8. Spottswood Poles: With a high batting average, great speed, good fielding ability, and a good peak in a relatively short career, I see him as comparable to Duffy, so this seems to be about the right spot for him.
   84. Brent Posted: September 26, 2004 at 01:28 AM (#878086)
9. Mickey Welch: I count fully half his HOM value as coming from his three best seasons.

10. Tommy Leach: The comparison with Carey is interesting. Although they don’t show up on each other’s “similar batters” lists, there are a number of striking similarities. Both had long careers, and while they contributed with the bat, they were primarily renowned as superb fielders. According to WS, fielding represented 29 percent of Leach’s value and 27 percent of Carey’s. Their career OPS+ are almost the same -- 107 for Carey, 109 for Leach. Both were used sometimes, but not exclusively, as leadoff hitters. Both led the league at least once in runs scored and in triples.

Carey had the longer career and, with his high SB pct and good OBP, was probably the better offensive player. Leach’s peak seasons were better and he spent half his career at 3B, which at the time was the more valuable position. Advantage to Leach by a nose.

I’ve only recently become aware of the extent to which Leach was respected while active and, indeed, considered a star. To some degree our images of early players tend to be shaped by batting lines in the encyclopedia, so it’s hard to picture these players the way the fans of the time did. But Paul Wendt’s SABR Deadball Era site presents some contemporary all-star teams selected by Baseball Magazine (for 1908-19) and by the League Presidents (during 1905). Leach appears as the NL 3B on the 1905 team and an NL OF on the 1909, 1910, and 1913 teams. Leach is definitely not just a product of The Glory of Their Times.

11. Max Carey: Lou Brock, plus a center fielder’s arm. Second-best fielder among HOM-eligible outfielders (after Tris Speaker).

12. Heine Groh: A fine player with some great seasons and a very good defensive 3B. His peak seasons were better than Leach’s, but his career didn’t last as long and he didn’t have quite as much glove skill.

13. Stan Covaleski: A fine pitcher for many seasons; wouldn’t be a bad HOM selection.

14. Fielder Jones: I took another look this week and decided he belongs on my ballot.

15. Wilbur Cooper: Worked a lot of innings and put in some very fine seasons.

Other new players: I placed Carl Mays just off my ballot at 16. My system likes big seasons, so his 1917 and 1921 seasons gave him a boost, as did his hitting. Ken Williams is way off my ballot, even with war credit.

Not on my ballot:

Jake Beckley: A poor man’s Brouthers. I really can’t understand the popularity of his candidacy.

Lip Pike: I understand the popularity, but remain unconvinced.
   85. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2004 at 02:06 AM (#878271)
4. Cristóbal Torriente: Would have been # 1 on my ballot three “years” ago.

Brent's ballot brought something to my attention. Should I use the accent mark above the o or not on his upcoming plaque? How did he normally sign his name? Should we go by the way it was shown in the papers or should we follow the Roberto Clemente Walker example?
   86. Brent Posted: September 26, 2004 at 02:43 AM (#878410)
There are enough Latin players coming up that it will be difficult to know which ones preferred to use accent marks and which ones didn't. I decided to add the accent to my ballot after Eric Enders complained about everyone misspelling Torriente's name. But I have no problem with leaving it off, consistent with common American usage.
   87. Brian H Posted: September 26, 2004 at 03:18 AM (#878446)
1935 Ballot
1.Pop Lloyd - Barely beats out Collins because many people actually believe/believed that he was the best player ever. I have never heard Collins described that way. Lloyd also has a slight fielding edge over Collins as a Shortstop although Collins World Series greatness (except 1919) makes it a really tough call.

2.Eddie Collins – Perhaps the greatest 2B ever (I favor Lajoie but I’d have trouble convincing anyone else). Collins was also a great post-season player and a genius on basepaths. On the last ballot it occured to me that even Collins (known as "Cocky") probabaly didn't believe he was greater than Cobb. That is hardly dispositive of their relative greatness but it does say quite a bit about how highly Cobb was regarded by his contemporaries.

3. Smokey Joe Williams – I feel bad about his placemen but my lack of insight into his greatness (caused largely by the paucity and unreliability of the existing Stats) makes it impossible for me to put him above the previous four. He may well have been the greatest Pitcher ever but “may” just won’t cut it against the likes of Lloyd and Collins.

4. Cristobal Torrienti – My understanding is that in his prime he was every bit as good as Oscar Charleston but that his prime (and his career) were much shorter. If he had Charleston’s (or Cobb’s) legendary intensity he could very well lead this list. For that matter if he had the certain paycheck and organized major leagues to play in he might have also equaled the famously undisciplined Babe Ruth.

5Hugh Jennings – (3 AS + 2 MVP) His peak is among the highest ever at SS. He was not merely the top SS of an era abundant with outstanding shortstops. – the one-league 1890’s.. James (a peak fan) ranks Jennings 18th, just above Dahlen among all SSs... Jennings was an integral part of the “Old Orioles” dynasty of the ‘90s. I think he still leads all-time in HBPs. If I recall correctly, Jennings was nearly the first MLB caualty.

6. Frank Chance (7 AS, 1 MVP) Chance was the was the premier 1B in baseball for several years (weak years for the position). Conversely, I have Beckley as the top 1B for only a few years. Very valuable on the bases.....Chance could rank higher if: (A) He was accorded credit for managing the Cubs; or (B) He was more durable player and put up career numbers like his longtime nemesis Fred Clarke.

7.Heinie Groh – Better than I thought he would be.... The best 3B on the Board right now. His career gives him a significant edge over Mugsy.

8.Hugh Duffy –(2 AS, 1 MVP) Duffy was integral part of Boston’s “team of the 90’s”. He had an exceptional peak and enough of a career that I can’t call it a fluke. Renowned as a heads-up player and a top-notch fielder.

9.Cupid Childs (5 AS) – I had him above McPhee based on his peak and strength of competition (as does James). I also think he hit a bit better than Bid (although his fielding was clearly inferior). Terrific player from the underappreciated (by us at least) 1890's.

10.Carl Mays – Unfortunately one pitch forever tarnishes his legacy. My sense is that even with the election of Smokey Joe Williams we will still be under representing Pitchers. Certainly that is true if one views the HOF as a decent baseline. Mays probably threw the most effective rising fastball ever (because he threw from down under his heater actually could have risen). One of these heaters got away (at least that’s my take) and accounts for Major League Baseball’s sole fatality. This notorious “one that got away” also may have played an often unacknowledged role in the end of the “dead ball” era.. Mays starts here – he could very well pass up a few of the guys inn front of him soon since I am starting him conservatively.

12.Mickey Welch – Well I’ve always had a soft spot for him (see earlier ballots)... His 300+ Wins are legit. I wonder why James leaves him off his top 100 but lists Mullane (whose career numbers need to be depreciated somewhat since he played in the AA) instead.

13.Stanley Covalevski – as one of the dominant Pitchers of his era I’m starting him a bit low (he may pass Griffith and Welch upon further analysis.) I’m already comfortable listing him above Waddell and Joss when I factor in their gaudy dead ball numbers. I think relative to his era he was more dominant than Mullane (and perhaps Welch).

14. Clarke Griffith – Among the top Pitchers for the (in my opinion) underappreciated 1890's. For his day I do not see him as quite as strong as either Covaleski or Mays. The comparison between him and Smilin’ Mickey is a bit tougher for me, but I’m still leaning towards the 300 game winner based on some of the arguments advanced over the past few “years”.

15.Max Carey – even with more “timelining” credit than I am generally comfortable with James ranks him four notches below Duffy. I doubt anyone could have ever argued that he was the best of his time even at his position. This is as high as I can comfortably start Carey.
   88. Brian H Posted: September 26, 2004 at 03:19 AM (#878452)
Brian H. Part 2:
Off the ballot :

Pete Browning (8 AS !) – A better AA hitter you will not find. Not as good all around as Stovey – a much better career than O’Neill . His early AA years are discounted. I think he’s made my ballot every year he’s been eligible until now. I’m sure he’ll be back.

Rube Waddell – (3 AS, 1 CY + 1 MVP) – one of the greatest strikeout Pitchers of all time. If he had the legendary savvy of Griffith, for example, he probably would have won 300 games and become a first ballot HOMer.

Roger Bresnahan (4 AS) – Better than Bennett but not by that much. He was a tremendous all-around talent and played a prominent role in the successes of the Giants of the 1900's. Just being a Catcher won’t get him a ballot slot this year, I think he’ll return to the ballot though and I am mindful that we are probably under representing his (primary) position thus far.

Lip Pike – I guess the ultimate explanation for why he falls behind guys is that I hold his era in relatively low esteem and I don’t really believe he was dominant enough to overcome that.

Van Haltren (VH) - Strong career but not up to what I look for in a peak for his position.

Jimmy Ryan – I like his peak a bit more than VH’s career but neither approaches the list with the 7 new entries. His train accident may be what keeps him out of the HOM.... as I recall he had quite a career going until that time.

Jake Beckley – Same as VH above only much more so. I believe we are selling short (especially relative to the 1900's and 1880's). As a 1B he rates well-below Chance and just below Ed Konetchy (Sp ?).

Dobbie Moore – While I do feel it is important to have positional balance in the HOM – I do not believe that is it imperative we have positional balance in out Negro League inductees. The Negro Leagues players generally were far more likely to play many positions than their white counterparts so in viewing them I am more concerned with the best ballplayers in general than I am with position. That coupled with my belief that (despite James’ ranking) Moore was not nearly the best primary 2B in the history of the Negro Leagues. Monroe, for example, outranks him in my mind.
   89. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 26, 2004 at 03:50 AM (#878486)
Brian H, you have nobody in 11th place on your ballot.
   90. Brian H Posted: September 26, 2004 at 04:45 AM (#878508)
Thanks -- Put Browning at 15Th and move everyone up from 12-15 so:
11. Welch
12. Covaleski
13. Griffith
14. Carey
15. Pete Browning
   91. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 26, 2004 at 01:13 PM (#878598)
1935 ballot

1. Eddie Collins
It felt criminal having him third last year. Morgan needed two more peak years to match him as the greatest 2B evar.

2. Pop Lloyd
Greatest Negro League position player not named Josh Gibson or Oscar Charleston.

3. Smokey Joe Williams
When Satchel Paige said "Don't look back, something might be gaining on you," he could easily have been talking about his stature in the annals of Negro League pitchers. Second to one.

4. Cristobal Torriente
Nothing like the first three, but a definitive HOM'er. Such a shame he was disqualified from the majors for having "kinky hair."

5. Heinie Groh
Great six-year peak with another six years of strong play, plus timeline, gets him here.

6. Charley Jones
Short seasons understate his greatness, he was extraordinarily good in 1879 and dominated the early AA as well. Blacklist years not his fault.

7. Clark Griffith
ERA+ makes it seem that Griffith had one dominant year in 1898 and was just above average elsewhere. In fact, he was just as good in 1899 (look at K, BB, HR, and BABIP/Teammates' BABIP), was a reliable workhorse, and pitched at an All-Star level for a decade. You can't see his greatness on the surface, but look deeper into the numbers and from 1896-1901 he was a genuine superstar.

8. Stan Coveleski
I have him in a dead heat with Griffith; advantage to Clark based on 1890's NL.

9. Lip Pike
Obviously a truly dominant player in the NA and 1876 NL, played many years pre-1871 at a very high level.

10. Pete Browning
1890 showed us he was for real, so his knock-em-dead years in '82, '85 and '87 have to be taken seriously. More career value than the “career” guys GVH/Beckley by my measure, and a true dominator for three or four seasons. Hopefully I can drum up some support for him; he really deserves it.

11. Cupid Childs
Offensive juggernaut at a scarce position with often excellent leather for eight years. A bona fide superstar in '90, '92, and '96, and a strong All-Star in '93 and '97. Didn't play forever but so good that he accumulated more career value than the "career guys" IMO. We don't have anyone from his era at his position, and he played in a stronger league than his comps by my estimate.

12. Max Carey
A great player, but never an MVP candidate really.

13. Addie Joss
Joss had a remarkable ability to prevent hits on balls in play, allowing a BABIP 31 points lower than his teammates' for his career (.238/.269). He had six seasons where he was absolutely one of the best in the biz, including 1908 which was particularly standout. His rate stats were so good that even despite his innings problem, he still comes out mid-ballot on both career and peak.

14. Hughie Jennings
So good for five years that he was more valuable than guys who played for three times as long.

15. Rube Waddell
Rube’s taken a big hit with my reevaluation. I *love* the K's, but now that I can see that deadball pitchers really could prevent hits on balls in play, he stands out less than he did before. It's worth nothing that his 1903 season was just as good as his much more highly regarded '04--almost as many innings, same BB/K/HR rates, similar propensity to giving up line drives (BABIP 5% higher than teammates' in '03, 6% in '04). '02 was really his best season though. One of the best pitchers in baseball from '02-'05, but not an otherworldly dominator and not enough career to push him further up the ballot or into my revised PHoM.

Left off:

Eddie Cicotte
He really was a premier, superstar pitcher from 1917-19, and was serviceable in 1913 and 1920. A slightly above league average pitcher for the rest of his career.

Jimmy Ryan
He doesn’t fare that well in my system, but I do have to give respect to his near-ballot-topping career value and he did at least have two great years in 1888 and 89.

John McGraw
He didn't play long enough to make the HoM, and rarely played full seasons even when he did. But man, was he good--an on-base machine the likes of which the game has rarely seen since.

Vic Willis
Just kept churning out those innings at an above-average level. The Beckley of pitchers, but a more valuable career than Beckley and at least a genuine All-Star once or twice.
   92. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2004 at 02:17 PM (#878621)
I have 38 ballots up to this point.
   93. OCF Posted: September 26, 2004 at 03:50 PM (#878658)
I have 38 ballots up to this point.

With 56 voters last year and one new voter (SWW), that leaves 19 of last year's voters still out. Here's who:

Bryce B. (Tanketra), Chris J., Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Guapo, Jeff M., Jim Sp, jimd, Joe Dimino, Kelly in SD, Ken Fischer, Max Parkinson, mdb1mdba, Michael D., Philip, RMc, Sean M., TheGoodSamaritan, yest.

Although theoretically a third of the electorate could massively rearrange the partial results we have, I don't expect any big surprises.
   94. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 26, 2004 at 08:12 PM (#879172)
John has given me the go ahead to post my first ballot here so I will. glad to be a part of this and Thanks!

1. Eddie Collins - If I am forced to pick I will usually take the guy that is the sure thing, i.e. the player with which we have the most data, over the one who is not. Hence, Collins edges ahead of Lloyd and Williams for the top spot on my ballot. 2nd best second baseman ever in my opinion and the one with the best career value. He was outstanding for roughly as long as GVH and Beckley were good.

2. John Henry “Pop” Lloyd
3. Smokey Joe Williams
4. Cristobal Torriente - Next comes the three Negro leaguers, making my ballot a very predictable one so far. I have them ranked the way they are because I am confident that Lloyd was the best NeL SS ever, and maybe the best SS ever, while at the same time am confident that Williams is a closer challenger to Paige (my best NeL pitcher) than Torriente is to Charleston. The way I see it Williams was similar, though not as good as, Walter Johnson or Pete Alexander while Torriente was similar to Roberto Clemente and I would rank Johnson/Alexander over Clemente. As an aside, where is Torriente generally placed on the field? I always thought of him as a center fielder but see many put him as a right fielder.

These are the four player that I feel most strongly about and there is a drop down to the fifth player on my ballot, which is...

5. Heinie Groh - Is this too high? Maybe, but after him there aren’t any guys that I truly like and would really fight for. Maybe I am overly impressed with the fact that he played a position without many standouts and hence gave him an additional shove. However, I like him more than Leach, if for no other reason than Leach spending half his career in the outfield, and there aren’t any other guys I like more than him.

6. Max Carey - Sizable from Groh. Great base stealer and defensive center fielder. I9's show him to be as good a hitter as Ben Taylor (whom I gave a lot of consideration) but he played a tougher defensive position and played it at least as well if not better. Things will be interesting in a few years when Roush and Combs are on the ballot as I see all three as very comparable players, especially Roush.

7. Stan Coveleski - My second pitcher. Maybe the toughest part of this project was to compare pitchers to position players, something I don’t do too often. I originally had him paired with Mays but the more I looked at the two of them the more I began to like Coveleski. In fact I now have Mays as my sixth best pitcher, with Coveleski as my second, which to me is evidence of a gap. Not a big gap, mind you, but one nonetheless.

8. Lip Pike - So after saying that I like ‘objective candidates over ‘subjective’ ones, I go and make 4 of my top 8 subjective candidates, go figure. Not only best pre-NA player left but also best 19th century player IMHO. Win Shares doesnt’ really shed any light on him, sinec it starts in 1876, but 9.9 WARP3 in only 70 games in 1875 is just sick.

9. Hugh Duffy - Is he too high as well? As mentioned above I tend to favor peak over career value, so Duffy was the highest of my CF glut (excluding Carey obviously), over GVH, Ryan, and Browning. Actually Browning had the best peak, but the shortest career, Duffy was the best mix when peak is weighted more, I believe. The drop from Duffy to Browning isn’t much and Browning isn’t on my ballot so I am open to suggestions here.

10. Cupid Childs - I have him as the best middle infielder after Collins and Lloyd. When I looked at Childs, I realized that was a very similar player to Groh, so I asked myself If Groh is #5, why shouldn’t Childs be pushing for a top 10 spot. I couldn’t find an answer, so I put Childs at tenth. Plus I like fat guys. John Kruk for the 2001 ballot! :-P
   95. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 26, 2004 at 08:13 PM (#879173)
continued...

11. George Van Haltren - In my first subjective ballot I had him seventh, but realized that his peak simply wasn’t high enough to warrant such a ranking. However, it is still very comparable to Ryan and he had more career value than Ryan did. The difference between him and Duffy is slim.

12. Jake Beckley - I originally had him 6th, but soon realized that his peak was even slower than GVH’s and GVH didn’t have much peak. Still a very long and very good career, I could see him putting him as high as eight or nine, but as a peak person I feel comfortable with him here.

13. Rube Waddell - Alright, not much career. I grouped him with Mendez as they both have careers where most of the value was tied up in five year stints (02-06 for Waddell and 10-14 for Mendez). Waddell career ERA+ was 134 while Mendez’ was either 119 or 113.8 (Newburg had 119 and Cobb had 113.8 on the Mendez thread). Add in that Mendez is a subjective candidate while he have plenty of data for Rube and that crazy sumbitch is my third best pitcher.

14. Jimmy Ryan - Maybe I am wrong in putting so many of the CF glut on my ballot, but I have him just below GVH, so this ranking makes sense to me.

15. Hughie Jennings - While outside of the years 1894-1898 Jennings wasn’t a HOM level player by any means (decent in 1892 though), during those years, dude was money. As I have stated ad nauseam I love peak and Jennings had a very nice peak. It’s the rest of his career that keeps him down so low.

Since this is my first ballot I will explain my next five as well.

16. Jose Mendez - As mentioned in the Waddell comment I have these two guys neck and neck with Waddell just a tad higher. I do think that Mendez had more career value, plus he didn’t chase fire engines, which has to go in his favor right?

17. Tommy Leach - This maybe too low if I am going to put Groh fifth, but I don’t exactly know what to do with him. His time in the outfield is a negative when comparing him to Groh and I am still figuring out where to put him in comparison to GVH, Ryan, et al. He is likely to move up in the future (maybe even way up) but I am playing it cautious here.

18. Pete Browning - Fantastic hitter, best of the CF glut, but also the worst career value and Win Shares doesn’t favor him like it does GVH. Does this mean I put too much stock in Win Shares? Maybe, but I am confident this is where he belongs. However, one reason that I don’t have him or GVH ranked too high, like many others, is that I am hesitant to rate a player that high when he has lots of comparables. If there are plenty of players like him how special could he have been? Does have a nice peak though, 4 10+ WARP1 Seasons, compared to 5 combined for Duffy, Ryan, and GVH.

19. Bill Monroe - In reading his discussion thread many of you seemed high on him. I don’t think he was as good as Grant of Johnson though. I have him slotted in between Childs and Evers (my second and fourth ranked number 4's, with Doyle fifth) am I am comfortable with that.

20. Clark Griffith - I guess I am just not a fan of those 19th century guys whose value is concentrated in the large amounts of innings they pitched. I will need to look into this more, but, for instance, BP’s translations have him pitching fewer innings than Mays in similar length careers. BP is not the end all be all, but it is enough to tell me that those high IP were mostly a function of his era. He does beat Mays in DERA and translated ERA, though, so I have him rated higher. However, Mickey Welch, whom many of you rate highly, is barely on my radar screen.

Barely missed (in no real order): Bresnahan, Mays, Chance, Taylor, Doyle, Leever
   96. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 26, 2004 at 09:41 PM (#879351)
Re: Common usage

Although generally I agree with Brent that common usage would be to leave the accent off, there is a shift in the media toward adding the accent marks. ESPN adopted the accent marks about three years ago or so, and other television and print sources have begun to follow suit.

As is often the case with language stuff, we're in flux. I don't think that voters should be too concerned about the accent marks appearing on their ballots, but I feel personally that as the plaques are the most "official" and public statement of our results, that, where it's possible to know whether a player's un-Anglicized name contained them, we should try to use the accent marks. Not to be overly P.C. or political, but I personally feel that this is especially pertinent nowadays: people of Latino origin now comprise the highest minority population in the U.S., are roughly 15% of the population, and are also currently the largest immigrant group in the country.
   97. Jim Sp Posted: September 26, 2004 at 10:02 PM (#879379)
1)Collins--#13 alltime on my list.
2)Lloyd--A bit above Williams, if I have to choose.
3)Smokey Joe Williams--Will get in very soon.
4) Torriente --Big gap between Williams and Torriente, but still very well qualified.
5)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
6)Groh--I guess where you put him depends on how much you like third basemen. Compares pretty well with Collins, only Baker is clearly better among 3B.
7)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production.
8)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
9)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
10)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
11)Bresnahan--Best hitting year was as a CF, not a C, so he’s not quite as impressive as I thought at first glance.
12)Coveleski--I expect he will be waiting on the bubble for a while.
13)Griffith—Comp is Marichal, plus he could hit.
14)Joss—Comp is Koufax…a terrible hitter.
15)Mendez--I rate him right below Joss.

Lip Pike-- Nothing to say that hasn’t already been repeated for 30 years.

Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
   98. Jeff M Posted: September 26, 2004 at 10:07 PM (#879389)
1935 Ballot

1. Collins, Eddie – The sixth best player so far, IMO, behind Cobb, Wagner, Speaker, Lajoie and Walter Johnson

2. Lloyd, Pop – The best Negro League player we’ve seen so far. I used the I9 numbers with a modest discount – since the numbers are uncertain and the competition less proven -- and he comes up shy of Collins. Without question a HoMer.

3. Williams, Smoky Joe – I’ve got him at about 400 WS, which is a great career number, but is spread out over 23 years, which gives him only a modest peak. Definitely the best pitcher on the ballot and definitely a HoMer.

4. Torriente, Cristobel -- I’ve got him around 380 WS (using Puckett as a defensive comp), putting him shy of Smoky Joe, which I think is about right. I think he belongs in the HoM.

5. Coveleski, Stan – Negatively affected by not pitching as long as some of the other pitchers under consideration, so his career numbers are not as impressive. Every other player who scored as high in my system has been elected.

6. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

7. Groh, Heinie – Excellent fielder with a high extended peak. Would fare better on my ballot if he played a bit longer and had some more grey or black ink. But still damned good.

8. Monroe, Bill -- Alleged comp is Jimmy Collins. He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

9. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM…but Groh is more deserving.

10. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. He hit about as well as McVey, with power, but with a smaller WS peak and fewer WS per 162 games. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

11. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

12. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

13. Mays, Carl – Better peak than career, and WS looks better than WARP1. A couple of MVP caliber seasons, and several other All-Star caliber seasons. Probably won’t make my PHoM, but is right on the edge.

14. Bresnahan, Roger -- In my system he was quite a bit better as a hitter than Charlie Bennett, though certainly not as good defensively (and not a full-time catcher). If you stack Bresnahan's WS and WARP1 numbers against the catchers actually elected to the HoF, he looks very solid. But then again, he wasn’t a full-time catcher.

15. Waddell, Rube -- Comparable to Griffith, but win totals are far less impressive. Can't see putting him ahead of Griffith, unless you overvalue strikeouts.

Required Disclosures:

Pike, Lip – Gut tells me he doesn’t quite belong. I’ve explained aplenty, so I won’t say more here. He’s #34 in my system, behind Urban Shocker and ahead of Hughie Jennings. Has a real chance of election, even though less than half of us think he’s top 10.

Beckley, Jake – Usually on the ballot but dropped off with the outstanding class of 1934. All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in black ink and Keltner tests. He’s #19 in my system, behind Tommy Leach and ahead of Tony Mullane.
   99. yest Posted: September 26, 2004 at 11:02 PM (#879482)
1935 ballot

1. Eddie Collins most 2B assists (7630) (John can you please put that on his plaque when it’s made) (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. John Henry Lloyd nothing too add for him (makes my personal HoM this year)
3. Mickey Welch 15th in innings pitched (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
4. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
5. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
6. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
7. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
8. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
9. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
10. Smokey Joe Williams underrated by most, overrated here, he’s no Welch
11. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever
12. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
13. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
14. Lip Pike 465 slugging percentage (made my personal HoM in 1910)
15. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
16. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
17. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
18. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
19. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
20. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
explanation for players of the ballot
Cristobal Torriente see his thread for an explanation
Heinie Groh no third base bonus
Hughie Jennings would be higher if he had led his league in something important
Stan Coveleski he has a good shot at making my pHoM in the future
   100. OCF Posted: September 27, 2004 at 12:15 AM (#879590)
Welcome, jschmeagol! I see you've put in a bid to have this year's single highest consensus score, although we'll have to wait until all the ballots are in to be sure. I'm sure that if you stick around a few years you'll find some more ideosyncratic take on some candidate.

So far it looks like our lowest consensus score will belong to the voter who has the lowest opinion of our current Negro League candidates, and the second lowest score to the voter with the highest opinion of the Negro League candidates.
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