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Monday, November 15, 2004

1939 Ballot

Strong crop of newly eligible players this “year”, though no no-brainers, IMO. They include Rabbit Maranville, Red Faber, Eppa Rixey, Joe Sewell, Nip Winters, Heavy Johnson and Jack Quinn. Strong returnees from last “year” include Lip Pike, Max Carey, Hughie Jennings, Jake Beckley, Clark Griffith, George Sisler, Rube Waddell and Mickey Welch.

As far as I am concerned, it’s a wide open election. I have no clue who will be the two candidates.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 15, 2004 at 06:30 AM | 149 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. ronw Posted: November 20, 2004 at 06:26 PM (#975338)
Its even worse. Scott Perry isn't even a 1B, but we're giving him credit anyway, since the position is so bad. :-)

Only Chance 1903 with 31, Chance 35 and Harry Davis 31 in 1905, Perry 30 in 1918, Sisler 33 in 1920, and Fournier 34 in 1924 were awarded 30+ win shares.

1918 - Perry 30, Merkle 22

Great list, Kelly. Is WS undervaluing 1B, or were they all horrible? We'll probably have a similar dip in the late 1960's-70's-early 80's at SS.
   102. Cblau Posted: November 20, 2004 at 06:36 PM (#975340)
Several voters have referred to Max Carey as a leadoff hitter. It
would be more correct to call him a leadoff-type hitter, since he only
hit first 696 out of his nearly 2500 games. He likely hit third
more often than first. George J. Burns hit leadoff nearly twice
as many times as Carey. See Herm Krabbenhoft's article.
   103. Howie Menckel Posted: November 20, 2004 at 06:51 PM (#975347)
Gents, probably best to send the comments over to "Ballot Discussion" rather than the ballot.

No reply needed here, since that would be just another post. We always have some comments interspersed with ballots, but at this point the ratio is unusually askew. (God bless me).
   104. Chris Cobb Posted: November 20, 2004 at 07:42 PM (#975372)
1939 Ballot

Reading the tea leaves . . . I’m curious to see whom we’ll elect this year. Less commentary than usual, because I’m not clear enough to advocate strongly. I am clear on three things: (1) The single-league 1890s need a couple of more representatives, (2) outfielders are overrepresented in the HoM at present, (3) we have a lot of strong pitching candidates at present.

1. </b>Clark Griffith</b> (2). Best 1890s candidate available. His relation to his peer pitchers is similar to that of Faber and Rixey. His raw peak is higher than theirs because pitchers threw more innings per season while his career value is lower because pitchers tended to burn out sooner, but his standing relative to his peers is close. Quality of competition considerations give him a slight edge over Rixey.
2. Eppa Rixey (n/e). With a 5% discount vs. Faber, he still comes out ahead among his peers. His run of good and very good seasons gives him the best career on the ballot.
3. Hughie Jennings (3). Best peak available, by far.
4. Red Faber (n/e). His peak was great but short, his career was long but mostly average. I think we’ll elect him sooner or later, and rightly so, but I think Griffith and Rixey are a bit more deserving.
5. George Van Haltren (9). Renewed study of quality of competition in one-league 1890s vs. NL of teens and twenties edges him ahead of Carey this year. The rest of his move up is a drop for Redding and Mendez. See below.
6. Max Carey (8). If he’s elected, I won’t complain; he’s deserving, but we’d do better to elect a couple of pitchers.
7. Edd Roush (10). Very similar in value to Carey.
8. Tommy Leach (11) Very similar in value to Carey.
9. Dick Redding (6). jschmeagol’s application of the WS short-form to Nip Winters raised questions for me about my WS estimates for Negro-League pitchers being too high. Haven’t fully resolved them, so I’m lowering Redding and Mendez slightly while I study more examples.
10. Jose Mendez (7). Best pitching peak on the ballot.
11. Lip Pike (13). If he’s elected I won’t complain; he’s deserving.
12. George Sisler (14). Nice peak; overrated by the electorate.
13. Larry Doyle (15). Appreciating his hitting more.
14. Rabbit Maranville (n/e). OPS is sad-looking, but his run from 1914 to 1930 was a fine career. Definitely one of the all-time great defensive shortstops.
15. Mickey Welch (5). Discussion has raised doubts about my analysis of him. I’m not prepared to drop him off my ballot altogether, but I can’t advocate his election now.

Players in the returning top 10 not on my ballot.

Jake Beckley. His lack of peak keeps him out of the running for a ballot spot from me.
Rube Waddell. In a win-based analysis, he’s less impressive than his in component-stat analysis. Deserving member of HoF, but just below the quality needed for HoM.
Cupid Childs. A fine player; second-best eligible second baseman after Larry Doyle, but he doesn’t have quite enough peak and career to make my ballot. Even though infielders are slightly underrepresented in HoM, they are trailing on my ballot right now, so I may be underrating them, but I’m not prepared to make major adjustments in my system at present. That will have to wait for post-1960 retrospection, I think.


Other new eligibles of note.

Joe Sewell – Not enough peak or career; he’s like Cupid Childs, but with a bit less peak, a bit more career.

Nip Winters – Truly great for five years, but very little outside that time. Not quite Mendez’s equal at peak, and lacks all of Mendez’s additional value outside of his peak.

Heavy Johnson – career tailed off too soon for an outfielder, and his great years were heavily helped by a hitter-friendly ballpark.
   105. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2004 at 08:08 PM (#975393)
I am clear on three things: (1) The single-league 1890s need a couple of more representatives, (2) outfielders are overrepresented in the HoM at present, (3) we have a lot of strong pitching candidates at present.

I echo your sentiments, Chris.
   106. Rob_Wood Posted: November 20, 2004 at 09:22 PM (#975445)
My 1939 ballot (a very strange ballot indeed):

1. Max Carey -- best career value on ballot
2. Red Faber -- very good pitcher for many years
3. Eppa Rixey -- ditto
4. Edd Roush -- CF a little behind Carey
5. George Sisler -- great half-career is enuf
6. Jake Beckley -- worthy very good career
7. Larry Doyle -- very good hitting 2Bman
8. Joe Sewell -- decent peak and career
9. Rabbit Maranville -- ballot worthy SS
10. Rube Waddell -- great strikeout pitcher
11. Addie Joss -- luv his whip
12. Jack Quinn -- difficult to place long time P
13. Lip Pike -- most overlooked early star
14. Cupid Childs -- another early meritorious star
15. Urban Shocker -- another very good pitcher
   107. favre Posted: November 20, 2004 at 10:28 PM (#975506)
1.Lip Pike

Pike:
a)averaged about 34 aWS per season during an eight-year stretch (275 aWS in 10-year documented career; -5 WS for two token appearances; 270/8=33.85). While I acknowldege the difficulties of adjusted win shares for the NA era, that’s still quite a prime.
b) His career OPS+ of 155 is higher than anyone on the ballot except Browning.
c) was the best outfielder—not centerfielder, but OUTFIELDER-- in baseball in 1871, ’74, ‘75’ and ’76.
d) was a star for five years before the NA, one of the first players to be paid, probably the best second baseman in the game during 1869-1870

2.Jake Beckley
3.Clark Griffith

I understand why Beckley is as welcome to peak voters as the Dixie Chicks would be at the Republican National Convention. But I’m not really a peak voter, and Jake’s a good career pick. He has 316 unadjusted Win Shares, which modified for schedule length would be, what, 330-340 WS? Not a lock, but hardly an embarrassment to the HoM. His WARP3 career score is good (87.1). He had 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. His career grey ink is good, and he has very good counting stats; I know we have to take the 90s level of offense into account, but 2900 hits/1600runs/1500 RBI certainly doesn’t discourage me from putting him high on the ballot. His era is underrepresented as it is, and I can’t imagine inducting another first baseman who played between 1897 and 1915. I’m sold.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

4.Tommy Leach
5.Eppa Rixey

Leach has 324 career WS. We’ve elected every position player with more career Win Shares except Van Haltren and Carey, and Van Haltren’s WS (344) are distorted by his pitching stint. He played near flawless CF/3B and hit in a low offense era. He makes my pHoM this year, just edging Rixey.

Rixey 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, Jack Powell, and Roger Clemens (for the moment) are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

6.George Sisler
7.Edd Roush
8.Rube Waddell

Cap Anson and Roger Connor retired in 1897, so we currently have a forty-year-and counting gap of first basemen in the HoM. Gehrig will reduce that to thirty; if we elect Beckley, the gap will be twenty years. Kelly in SD’s list further convinces me that Sisler deserves to be high on the ballot; he was the best 1B in baseball for five seasons, at the end of a long drought of quality first sackers. I’ve now moved him ahead of Roush.

I’m surprised that I have this Roush this high; I thought he would end up near the CF glut off the ballot. He was clearly one of the best players in the NL from 1917-1921—an impressive prime, even with a small NL discount-- and was a good player from ’23-26. He may make it into the top five next year.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

9.Ned Williamson
10.Hugh Jennings
11.Pete Browning
12.Cupid Childs

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better. If you give Browning a healthy AA discount (obviously a matter of contention), then he was a comparable player to Sam Thompson: relatively short career, not much defense, but a very good hitter.

13.Red Faber
14.Wally Schang
15.Larry Doyle

Ted Lyons is an excellent comp for Faber, which makes me wonder if I’ve ranked Urban too low. Schang is an interesting “in-between candidate”. He stacks up well against his competitors from 1895-1925: McGuire, Schalk, Petway, and, yes, Bresnahan (Bresnahan has a higher peak, but Schang has 500 more games at catcher and a thousand more PA). However, he does not look good when compared to catchers who played after ’25: Hartnett, Cochrane, Dickey, Mackey. For now, that lands him at the bottom of the ballot. Doyle was a comparable hitter to Childs, but there are more questions about his defense.

16.Mickey Welch

His career wins total and record vs. HoMr’s keeps him near the ballot; his peripherals continue to keep him off. I still don’t understand the discrepancy in ERA+ if he was basically the same player as Keefe. Why would Welch be “pitching to the score,” and Keefe not?

17.Spotswood Poles
18.Max Carey
19.George Van Haltren

Carey was a fine player, but he was a contemporary of Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Torriente, and Roush, and I’m not sure the sixth-best CF of his era is a good pick. Van Haltren was merely a good hitter in a high offense era, and I think his WS totals are distorted by his pitching stint.
   108. Patrick W Posted: November 20, 2004 at 11:44 PM (#975546)
Overlooked Heilmann last year, when I should’ve had him elected (a year behind his official election). He goes in this year, with the elector’s apologies.

1. Max Carey (1), Pitt. (N), CF / LF (’10-’29) (1937) – Top of the mere-mortal portion of the ballot.
2. George Van Haltren (2), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – So close to election before the superstar surge, after things return to normal he’s not even top 10, having fallen behind 6 others who were eligible eight years ago. I don’t get it.
--. Harry Heilmann, Det. (A), RF / 1B (’14-’30) (1939) – D’oh!
3. Jimmy Ryan (3), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – His chances were slim when VH was close.
4. Harry Hooper (4), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
5. Fielder Jones (5), Chic.(A), CF / RF (’96-’08) (1930) – Woo Hoo! He got 1 more voter this year! His election in 2030 will be a proud moment for me.
6. Joe Sewell (n/a), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) -- Don’t let it be said I have no love for the prime/peak guys. I’m betting that some rookie is going to sneak in while only appearing on ~38 ballots.
7. Ben Taylor (6), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
8. Jake Beckley (8), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Solid numbers forever.
9. Rube Waddell (9), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – Top of the pitcher glut.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
--. Mordecai Brown, Chic. (N), SP (’03-’16) – Raised my weighting of PRAA, raised my opinion of 3-Finger.
10. Urban Shocker (11), St.L (A), SP (’16-’27) – Solid pitcher, deserves his place among all the other pitchers here getting more votes.
11. Red Faber (n/a), Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) – No better time to rethink pitchers than when some fresh-blood competition for the old timers appear. WARP says Rixey & Faber slot in with the rest of the pitchers pretty nicely.
--. Joe Start, Atlantic-Bkn (NABBP)-N.Y.Mut.(NL), 1B (‘60-’86) –
12. Wally Schang (12), Phila. – NY (A), C (’13-’31) – Small difference between him & Bresnahan, but a) clearly Wally is the better in my mind, and b) there are many evenly ranked players near the same overall value that create quite a distance between the two on my ballot.
13. Clark Griffith (15), Chic. (N) - NY (A), SP (’91-’14) – The pitchers at the bottom here look better to me than Eddie Rommel.
14. Eddie Cicotte (14), Chic. (A), SP (’08-’20) (1930) – Now that the obvious honorees have been taken care of, the pre-’34 crowd is back.
--. Joe McGinnity, NY(N), SP (‘99-‘08) –
15. Eppa Rixey (n/a), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – I can timeline adjust Rixey anywhere from 2nd best pitcher to not near the ballot. Don’t be shocked if the ballot re-organizes itself next year.

Lip Pike – Too many other worthies have arrived (and will continue to) and rank ahead of him. Doesn’t look likely that he’ll ever make it to the ballot.
Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to overcome the career guys.
George Sisler – Jennings had the better career
Mickey Welch – Give me McCormick first (also not near the ballot).

Maranville suffers from a steep NL discount in WARP, but is only just missing the ballot (along with 12 other guys in some order). He’s either just ahead or behind Lave Cross right now

Pike, Jennings, Sisler & Welch were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   109. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 21, 2004 at 12:06 AM (#975553)
FYI, I am working on five ballots since it's not clear who will be the two candiates yet. I may have to add a couple more by the end of the election since there are five candidates within fifty points of the holders of the second spot at this moment. Way too close to call still.
   110. Thane of Bagarth Posted: November 21, 2004 at 12:42 AM (#975568)

1939 ballot

1) Lip Pike—155 OPS+. Top 7 or better in OPS+ in 5 out of 7 documented seasons, top 10 in slugging all 7 years.
2) Cannonball Dick Redding—2nd best NeL pitcher of the deadball era.
3) Joe Sewell—3rd in top 5 years in WARP3 (45.3) a hair behind Veach (45.7) and well below Jennings. Productivity outside of 5-year peak moves him past Jennings for #1 SS on the board (even though he played 5 years at 3B).
4) Hughie Jennings — That peak is hard to resist—54.2/151 in top 5 WARP3/WS seasons. Not far behind Sewell…moves ahead of Browning as BP revisions don’t do the Louisville Slugger much good.
5) Pete Browning—162 OPS+, .305 EQA (all time), 30.81 WS/162G.
6) Ben Taylor—As I see it, one of the top 3 NeL 1st basemen of all time. That puts him well ahead of the likes of Beckley & Sisler. Taylor should be on at least half the ballots Beckley is on, last election he got one more vote so he was on just over ¼ (7:27).
7) Fielder Jones— Comes out on top of CF glut this time around. Seems like he gets passed over in a lot of the OF debate. 89.9 WARP3 is very close to Hooper & Carey, ahead of Roush, GVH and a host of others. A+ fielder like Hooper & Carey and significantly better WS/162 at 26.28 puts him ahead of those guys even though they played a bit longer. Does well in peak and career measures by both WARP3 and WS. Modest OPS+ of 111 masks competitive .282 EQA(all-time).
8) Rube Waddell—Waddell is the next Caucasian pitcher in line after Coveleski. 142 ERA+. 3.69 DERA. 5 best seasons: 236 PRAA/442 PRAR/145 WS.
9) Jose Mendez—Excellent NeL pitcher. Doesn’t get a ton of recognition in the “expert” rankings, but he was #34 out of SABR’s top forty NeL players, 9th pitcher overall.
10) Dobie Moore— The Black Hughie Jennings cracks the top 10. If Hughie makes the HoM, Dobie should not be far behind
11) Charley Jones—OPS+ of 149. 29.17 WS/162g is second only to Browning among eligibles. Bump for missed years.
12) Bill Monroe—Top 2nd baseman on my ballot. I see him as slightly better than Childs, whose ranking is now slipping into the middle of outfield hogpile.
13)Red Faber— Peak looks considerably better than Shocker in WS and BP’s stats. Respectable rate stats (119 ERA+, 4.11 DERA, 26.81 WS/Season) over almost 1200 more Translated IP give Faber the edge.
14) Urban Shocker—Top three seasons were a bit below Cicotte’s, but career and 5-year peak totals of WS, WARP3, PRAA are very close or better than Ed’s. Significant edge in DERA (3.79 vs. 4.04) and WS/1000IP (84 vs. 77) for Shocker. It’s close but Shocker comes out ahead.
15) Ed Cicotte—His top three seasons were outstanding: 94 WS, 151 RSAA. Top 5 and career totals bring him back to the rest of the pack:
186/394 top 5 PRAA/PRAR, 124 top 5 WS, 4.04 DERA, 77 WS/1000IP. Willis is right on his heels.
   111. Thane of Bagarth Posted: November 21, 2004 at 12:42 AM (#975569)
Just off ballot:
16) Vic Willis—Top 3/5 PRAA seasons just behind Cicotte, comes out ahead in career PRAA by 2. Lower WS/1000IP and DERA keep him off the ballot (barely). His IP advantage shrinks quite a bit when you look at Translated IP.
17) Long Levi Meyerle—164 OPS+ in career that is 75% of Pike’s documented length. Top 8 or better in OPS+ 6 out of 7 seasons, 1st twice.
18) Chino Smith—Exceptional peak makes him the Dobie Moore of outfielders. I think he could be easily overlooked. Seems to have hit .400+ on a semi-regular basis (granted they’re small samples). Premature death really throws a wrench into the evaluation. According to McNeil and the Pitts. Courier Poll, he’s somewhere between the 4th and 6th best NeL outfielder. He’s very close to being on my ballot.
19) Addie Joss—Latest BP revision hits Joss hard, dropping his Top 3/5 PRAA seasons by more than 33% down to: 97/160. 31.51 WS/season is best for 20th Century eligibles. 1700 Translated IP is lowest by far of pitchers in my top 20. Good fielder (109 Rate), horrible batter (20 OPS+). Weak hitting and low IP hurt him in yet another reevaluation of pitchers thanks to the new crop.
20) Eppa Rixey—Difference between pitchers at 13-16 and 19-20 is razor thin. Rixey has the career to come up neck and neck with Joss’s peak. They have almost exactly the same all-time RSAA for their careers (243 for ER, 240 AJ). Comes up just a little bit short of Faber in just about every rate or peak stat.

Top 10 Left Off:
21) Max Carey—I have jumped him above Harry Hooper (#23). Long career, but there are a lot of pretty good OFs with long careers. 20.71 WS/162G is not outstanding against the competition.
66) Jake Beckley—He’s no Ben Taylor. I also don’t see a huge difference between him and Ed Konetchy who only got 3 votes ast election.
45) George Sisler—His peak years aren’t that much higher, at least top 5 in WARP3 (43.6), than a lot of the outfielders who played longer that I have above him. I did move him up slightly among hitters, but the influx of pitchers and Joe Sewell has his overall position dropping two slots this week.
25) Clark Griffith—Deflation of his IP by Trans. IP hurts him a bit. Better DERA keeps him ahead of Carl Mays. He’s stayed within shouting distance of my ballot for a while, but I doubt he’ll make it back on any time soon.
64) Mickey Welch—I don’t think he was horrible or anything, I’m just not that impressed. WS/1000IP (74) and WS/Season (29.5) are in line with the growing group of pitchers that I see as slightly below HoM-worthy. Like Griffith, hurt by Translated IP, but Mickey’s is cut in half. A few of the more modern pitchers moved past him in this week’s reevaluation.
36) Cupid Childs—Having a hard time settling on where to place him in relation to the OF glut. WARP3 and WS don’t help him out that much. Maybe I’ve overreacted. He was on my ballot two years ago.
27) George Van Haltren—A very good player, I just don’t see him as standing out enough from the Hooper-Poles-Thomas-Leach-etc. crowd to justify enshrinement in the HoM.

New guys in top 100:
34) Nip Winters—I put him right next to John Donaldson in my rankings. A star for a few years. Made it on the second team for the Pitts. Courier poll. Repeated anecdotes about his lack of control make me think he was not in Redding/Mendez territory.
49) Jack Quinn—Quality pitcher for a lot of IP. Not exceptional enough for the HoM.
61) Rabbit Maranville—Actually beats Ozzie Smith in WARP1 (134 vs. 126), but WARP3 discounts Rabbit a lot more than the Wiz (86 vs. 125) so it looks like Ozzie will be ranked significantly higher when his time comes.
100) Highpockets Hudspeth & 101) Heavy Johnson—Two NeLers that were pretty good, but not in the upper echelon.
   112. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 21, 2004 at 01:44 AM (#975606)
61) Rabbit Maranville—Actually beats Ozzie Smith in WARP1 (134 vs. 126), but WARP3 discounts Rabbit a lot more than the Wiz (86 vs. 125) so it looks like Ozzie will be ranked significantly higher when his time comes.

I certainly hopes so.
   113. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 21, 2004 at 02:09 AM (#975632)
Hey guys I have visiting a friend in california (I am from central Pa) and won't get back until tomorrow night. Just in case I can't get a full ballot done with disclosures and comments, I am posting my ballot without comments now. Hopefully I will be able to post comments

1. Hughie Jennings
2. Cupid Childs
3. Red Faber
4. Eppa Rixey
5. Lip Pike
6. Tommy Leach
7. Dick Redding
8. George Sisler
9. Rube Waddell
10. Hugh Duffy
11. Max Carey
12. Jose Mendez
13. Bobby Veach
14. Pete Browning
15. Clark Griffith

George Sisler is a big winner this week as I took another look at my lack of 1B on the ballot. Max Carey fell a few spots. Last week I took a close look at Stan Coveleski to make sure I wanted him as high as he was, this week it was Carey. While Stan passed, Carey fell down below Hugh Duffy on prime/peak considerations. Griffith made a big jump thanks to Sunnyday2.

Hope to have more explanation on monday.
   114. Brent Posted: November 21, 2004 at 06:27 AM (#975777)
1939 Ballot:

This week I made a major change to my system for evaluating pitchers. Since I’m really not sure whether WS or WARP does a better job of adjusting pitchers’ records for defense and other factors, I decided to use an average of WS and WARP-1. Another change is that I tweaked my outfield evaluations after my first draft ballot came up with 7 center fielders and no corner outfielders. I still have 4 (or 5, depending on how you count Leach), but I think several of the strongest candidates are actually the center fielders.

I also was struck by the similarity between the top half of this year’s ballot and my 1931 ballot. I guess most of the strong entrants over the last 8 years have now been elected.

1. Hugh Duffy: 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

2. Hughie Jennings: According to WS, one of the best defensive SS of all time, and I believe it. Better peak than most HOMers.

3. José Méndez: The more I learn about him the more impressed I am. I’ve been reading The Pride of Havana: A History of Cuban Baseball (highly recommend it), and it’s clear just from looking at the rosters that the Cuban League he dominated for his first 7 seasons (1908-14) was very good. There were only 3 or 4 teams in the league, and the other teams had many great players, including John Henry Lloyd, Smokey Joe Williams, Cristóbal Torriente, Louis Santop, Grant Johnson, Rube Foster, Dolf Luque, Cannonball Redding, Bruce Petway, Spot Poles, Preston Hill, and others. I’d like to see some of you statisticians take a closer look, but I’m convinced that in their best seasons the level of play must have equaled the best of the Negro Leagues.

4. Spottswood Poles: I haven’t given up on him. I think he was a better hitter than either Carey or Roush and a better fielder than Roush

5. Roger Bresnahan: I know some voters prefer Schang, but I really can’t see it. Here are their WS for their best 10 seasons (adjusted to 154 gm seasons):

Bresnahan: 30, 29, 27, 23, 19, 18, 14, 14, 13, 13
Schang: 21, 20, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 14

That’s a difference of 26 WS over their best 10 seasons (200 for Bresnahan vs. 174 for Schang). I know Schang has a slight lead in total WS (249 to 237), but I just don’t see how the value picked up from seasons as a second-string or below average catcher can offset such a big difference in their peak performance.

6. Tommy Leach: 6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey, but I rate him higher because of his years at 3B.

7. Clark Griffith: Helped by my reevaluation of pitchers.

8. Dick Redding: I see his career value as similar to Coveleski’s.

9. Max Carey: Second only to Speaker in the outfield.

10. George J. Burns: Outstanding leadoff hitter; 3 seasons with 30+ WS.

11. Urban Shocker: Another pitcher helped by my reevaluation.

12. Fielder Jones: Underappreciated.

13. Vic Willis: Ditto.

14. Eppa Rixey: I noticed Rob Neyer’s Big Book of Baseball Lineups lists him as the # 4 all-time starting pitcher for the Reds behind three near contemporaries: Walters, Derringer, and Luque. But we can only vote for the ones who are eligible.

15. Carl Mays: Edges out Faber as the last pitcher on my ballot.

I have Faber at # 18; not enough years like 1920-22. I rank Joe Sewell at # 28, just ahead of Larry Doyle and Joe Tinker. And I have Nip Winters at # 35. I like Maranville and Quinn, but they both have the Beckley problem – they seldom, if ever, had seasons that placed them among the best players. Neither of them makes my top 40.

Not on my ballot:

Lip Pike: Overrated.
Jake Beckley: Undistinguished.
George Sisler: Near miss.
Mickey Welch: The big loser from my pitcher reevaluation. The key question is how much of the success of his 1885 season should be attributed to his fielders. Both WARP and Bill James (in TNBJHBA) suggest that most of it should be. I’m not sure, but there’s enough doubt that I’ve dropped him from my ballot.
   115. Tiboreau Posted: November 21, 2004 at 11:20 PM (#976170)
1. Hughie Jennings—Jennings had the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprised of 73.3% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value.
2. Lip Pike—After Negro Leaguers, Pike and Cravath are the hardest for me to judge. Gotta give credit to a man who reputedly outran a horse, though. . . . He also benefits from credit for his playing time prior to the NA, and from seasonal length adjustments.
3. Red Faber—Two amazing seasons combined with a long, solid career carries Faber to the top part of the ballot.
4. Max Carey—Sticks out like a sore thumb among a similar group of center fielders with very good career and good peak numbers. His 351 Win Shares is the highest among HoM candidates (non-19th century pitchers division).
5. Larry Doyle—Siding with Win Shares interpretation of his defense, combined with an adjustment for Childs’s 1890 AA competition, gives Doyle the edge over Childs.
6. Cupid Childs—See comments on Larry Doyle.
7. Rube Waddell—Coveleski played 14 seasons; Waddell played 13. Coveleski accumulated 245 WS and averaged 29.85 per season; Waddell accumulated 240 and averaged 30.59. They have the same dERA: 3.58. The difference between the two, other than strikeouts, is the comparison between their peers, but on another “Ballot of the Very Good” this is the spot that I think Waddell deserves.
8. Clark Griffith—In this, my second, ballot I decided that pitchers were one of two groups that deserved a closer look. The greatest beneficiary was Clark Griffith, who is currently battling it out with Waddell for the 7th spot on my ballot.
9. Jose Mendez—Has been compared statistically to Rube Waddell.
10. Tommy Leach—Very good career, good peak, a part of the underrepresented third baseman class.
11. Joe Sewell—Good offense to go along with great defense at shortstop put Sewell on the ballot.
12. Eppa Rixey—Did not have a great peak, but Eppa was consistently real good for a long time. Best name on the ballot.
13. Dick Redding—Best Negro Leaguer pitcher from 1917 – 1919, according to Bill James, and a great nickname to boot.
14. Dobie Moore—The other group that received a closer perusal were the Negro Leaguers. Dobie Moore, who has drawn comparisons to Hughie Jennings, was the greatest beneficiary, essentially switching spots with Poles. Monroe suffered the most, slipping behind the outfielders.
15. Gavy Cravath—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.

Disclosures:

Jake Beckley—Very good career numbers, however, his peak numbers are the lowest of any candidate. Even with fielding adjustments, there are still other very good career, good peak guys I'd put ahead of him.
George Sisler—After a second comparison with the outfield glut, Sisler has fallen just within their midst. He’s right behind Duffy and Roush, who are both just off my ballot.
Mickey Welch—A bit difficult for me to rate because one uber-stat seems to overrate 19th century pitchers while the other underrates them, so I also relied on comparison among peers, and Welch falls a bit off the ballot.
   116. sunnyday2 Posted: November 21, 2004 at 11:28 PM (#976175)
This should go somewhere else, but heck, I'm gonna put it here anyway so it doesn't get lost in the shuffle. Somebody already asked, but...

How 'bout a Joe Rogan thread. I had thought he was an NB, but was surprised to see his i9 MLE as less distinguished than Dizzy Dismukes. What's with that????

And that could be coupled with Luque. Like Rogan his basic pitching resume (NeL for Rogan and ML for Luque) is just 2/3 of the story. In each case there's an additional 1/3 (Rogan's hitting and Luque's Cuban record).

Need this discussion soon!

Not to mention John Beckwith? Curiosity or true great?
   117. Esteban Rivera Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:00 AM (#976421)
Adding to this year's mish-mash.

1. Lip Pike - One of the best players in early baseball. The pre-NA numbers confirm what I have believed about his early career.

2. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

3. Hughie Jennings - A historical monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

5. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

6. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

7. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

8. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

9. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

10. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

11. Max Carey - Defense and stolen bases. How much will that carry him in the future?

12. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career land him for the first time on my ballot.

13. Red Faber - He and Rixey are almost equal but the strength of the two big years edges him onto the ballot.

14. Roger Bresnahan - Edges out Schang and Shalk as my top catcher available. Have moved him back up because I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

15. Frank Chance - The opposite of Beckley. Was the standard for excellence at his position but injuries did him in. Tragic that it was the "competitive" nature of his opposition that caused him part of his career and shortened his life.

Joe Sewell is at 16 while Eppa Rixey is at 19.
   118. dan b Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:06 AM (#976438)
Win shares are my metric of choice. My composite ranking = 5 x Career + (3 best years)/3 + (5 best consecutive years)/5 + (8 best years)/8 + (10 best consecutive years)/10 + WS per 162. I then make adjustments justified by individual components with a touch of subjectivity thrown in. I use the same system for hitters and for 60’ 6” era pitchers. I also look at WS w/o defense for a hitting only ranking. (Number in parenthesis shows composite rank.)


1.Rixey (9) More career value than any other pitcher in his era not answering to Walter or Grover puts him in PHoM.
2.Jennings (13) – PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1st in 3 and 5-year peaks.
3.Duffy (1). PHoM in 1912. 1st in 8 and 10-year peaks.
4.Leach (7) 6th in 8-yr peak, 3rd in career. PHoM 1926.
5.Faber (8) Right behind Rixey on career value.
6. Carey (5) 1st in career, 8th in 10 year peak.
7.Griffith (2) 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM in 1913.
8.Roush (2) Composite rank better than any single component.
9.Bresnahan (28) 19th in WS/162, but 3rd in WS/600PA. Big position bonus to fill the void behind the plate. HoM will be flawed if we do not induct at least one Major League catcher who played between Buck Ewing’s retirement in 1897 and Gabby Hartnett’s debut in 1922. Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
10.Redding Good enough to enshrine.
11.Cooper (4) Ditto. 3rd best 10-year peak in his era behind WJ and GCA.
12. Mays (5) Ditto again. 3rd best 8-year peak in his era behind WJ and GCA.
13.Burns,GJ (4) 2nd in 8 and 10 year peaks. 2nd best hitter.
14.Sisler (15) – Best hitter on ballot. Future PHoM.
15.Sewell NHBA has him as 5th best SS eligible to date.
   119. Ken Fischer Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:39 AM (#976506)
1939 Ballot
(includes my top 25)

1-Max Carey 351 WS
It’s hard to ignore Max’s win shares. Max was helped by live ball era but it’s hard to ignore the 738 lifetime steals. There was an interesting argument about George Burns & Carey. I’ve added Burns to my depth chart but I don’t see anything that puts him in Max’s league.

2-Pete Browning 225 WS
Have to be a true believer to stick with Pete. He does have a down side. But he was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me. His defense takes a lot criticism. But he had a lot of merit besides being the original Louisville Slugger and a great story.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Van played with Ryan briefly in the 1880s and was a teammate of Ed Williamson and Christy Mathewson at different times in his career. The fact he was traded to Pitt for an HOM caliber player (J. Kelley) is one more reason he deserves election.

4-Dick Redding
Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years. The Cannonball shut out Smoky Joe Williams twice in 1920…including a 5-0 win at Ebbets Field.

5-Lip Pike
Great numbers even though he was in the twilight of his career during the NA days. I believe Pike will eventually make the HOM. Other HOM voters have done a great sell job to get me to see the light on Lip.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

7-Wally Schang 245 WS
He moves up my list after more research. I’ve come to the conclusion that Schang belongs in a special group of most the most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. Wally had an interesting career that spanned the dead ball era into the middle of the live ball era. Played with World Series winners with A’s, Red Sox and Yanks…including the last Red Sox WS win and the first WS win for Yanks. He was a starter for several years followed by years of part-time work. Despite being a part-time for the last 7-8 years he earned 245 career win shares as a catcher…impressive.

8-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.

9-Eppa Rixey 315 WS
I think of Rixey as a Red…but his only post-season appearance came in ’15 with the Phils. Only Grimes, Johnson & Alexander beat him in wins and complete games during his era. Rixey has detractors…he hung on his last 5 years after being great.

10-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

11-Jose Mendez
John Holway says some records credit Mendez with a 44-2 record in 1909. He was considered the best black pitcher of his time.

12-Carl Mays 256 WS
Penalized for Chapman incident and pitching in a high run-producing era. Mays was hard to get along with but was a gamer. He had strong numbers for 3 teams spread out across his entire 15-year career.

13-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
Jennings is back on my ballot after a long hiatus. After looking at Maranville & Sewell I decided that Jennings belongs on the list ahead of the newcomers. Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

14-Rube Waddell 240 WS
Despite short career Waddell still makes the A’s all-time top 30 list for Win Shares. Mack signed Rube out of the coast league in 1902. The big cities of the east must’ve been quite a site for Rube.

15-Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
His numbers don’t match up well with the top catchers outside his era but well within his own time. The Deadball era appears to have been tough on backstops.


16-Joe Sewell 277 WS
17- Lave Cross 278 WS
18-Cupid Childs 238 WS
19-Edd Roush 314 WS
20-Bobby Mathews 158 WS
21-Rabbit Maranville 302 WS
22-George Sisler 292 WS
23-Hugh Duffy 295 WS
24-Clark Griffith 273 WS
25-Tony Mullane 399 WS
   120. Jeff M Posted: November 22, 2004 at 05:15 AM (#976555)
1939 Ballot

1. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

2. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

3. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

4. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM. Groh is more deserving.

5. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor in the outfield.

6. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. He hit about as well as McVey, with power, but with a smaller WS peak and fewer WS per 162 games. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

7. Faber, Red – Solid in all areas – grey ink, WS, WARP1, counting stats, etc. Not a spectacular career, but some spectacular seasons with good surrounding years.

8. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

9. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

10. Mays, Carl – Better peak than career, and WS looks better than WARP1. A couple of MVP caliber seasons, and several other All-Star caliber seasons. Probably won’t make my PHoM, but is right on the edge.

11. Bresnahan, Roger -- In my system he was quite a bit better as a hitter than Charlie Bennett, though certainly not as good defensively (and not a full-time catcher). If you stack Bresnahan's WS and WARP1 numbers against the catchers actually elected to the HoF, he looks very solid. But then again, he wasn’t a full-time catcher.

12. Waddell, Rube -- Comparable to Griffith, but win totals are far less impressive. Can't see putting him ahead of Griffith, unless you overvalue strikeouts. He floats on and off my ballot.

13. Veach, Bobby – Several near-MVP years, but just doesn’t end up with truly impressive WS or adjWARP1 numbers.

14. Carey, Max – Excellent defender and a good, but not great hitter. Defense only counts so much in the outfield. It doesn’t make up for the difference between his hitting and the centerfielders we tend to elect.

15. Doyle, Larry – Doyle is essentially tied with Joe Sewell and Tommy Leach in my system, but I’m giving the nod to Doyle.

Required Disclosures:

Beckley, Jake – All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in black ink and Keltner tests. He’s #18 in my system, behind Joe Sewell and ahead of Tony Mullane.

Pike, Lip – He’s #39 in my system, behind Heinie Zimmerman and ahead of Charlie Buffinton.

Jennings, Hughie -- He’s #31 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan and ahead of Rabbit Maranville. I’ve never been comfortable enough with his career length to place him highly.

Welch, Mickey – He’s #20 in my system, behind George Burns and ahead of Spotswood Poles.
   121. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 22, 2004 at 06:08 AM (#976662)
Okay, I am not back home and here are my explanations. Not, THIS IS NOT A BALLOT. Although if you guys want mto double count my ballot that would be nice...:-)

Cupid Childs and Red faber make my personal hall of merit.

1. Hughie Jennings
2. Cupid Childs

I think that most of us agree that the one league 1890's are underrepresented in the HOM. The problem we have had though, is not that we as members are overlooking the decade but that there are just very different opinions over who those extra two-three players should be. I think that the two above guys are the best not yet in (obviously) and one reason is that the rough style of play was very harsh on infielders, giving them shorter careers. Both players have very nice peaks though and may have had longer careers in other eras. Any thoughts?

3. Red Faber
3a. Stan Covelski
4. Eppa Rixey

I do have reservations about putting the two newbies so high, but I just feel that both are meritorious. There is a drop after this as the rest of the players fall into the category of, "players I won't mind if they get in but I won't go out of my way to campaign for".

5. Lip Pike - Great hitter in the documented part of his career, which only incapsulates half of it.

6. Tommy Leach - Very nice player, more of a career guy than a peak guy, but it is hard not to have him this high.

7. Dick Redding - Best NeL deadball pitcher outside of Smokey Joe.

8. George Sisler - After taking another look at him my 'system' has him head and shoulders above the rest of the first sackers, so he gest a bump up from 15 a 'year' ago. Great peak makes up for the mediocre second half of his career.

9. Rube Waddell - great strikeout pitcher, and I have a soft spot for guys with tons of K's.

10. Hugh Duffy - Best blend of peak and career among eligible outfielders

11. Max Carey - Lest election I took a good hard look at Stan Coveleski to make sure that he deserved his high ranking on my ballot, and I surmised taht he did. With Max Carey the probable favorite this year I took another look at him and realized that I had him too high (#6 on my prelim ballot). All told his long career didnt' make up for his lack of peak, even in Win Shares a ssytem that favors him.

12. Jose Mendez - Similar to Waddell, only with a lower ERA+.

13. Bobby Veach - very nice peak

14. Pete Browning - Best hitter eligible (depending on how good you think Pike was). To me he looks like a Harry Heilmann lite.

15. Clark Griffith - Has made a huge jump in the past few days, but strangely enough is still the my #6 pitcher. He just went from the best of the second group (Mays, Cicotte, Joss, and Shocker), to the worst of the first group.

16-20 - GVH, Sewell, Bresnahan, Roush, Moore
21-25 - Monroe, Doyle, Konetchy, Bancroft, R. Thomas
26-30 - Schang, Shocker, Cicotte, Chance, F. Jones

Disclosures
Beckley - Not enough peak for me, not even close
Welch, - I understand that he may have been pitching to teh score but such analysis doesn't really convince me that he wasn't more than a merely above average pitcher that had one great year.
   122. Brian H Posted: November 22, 2004 at 08:33 AM (#976918)
Brian H —>>>1939

I am largely a "Peak Voter" and am also concerned with some degree of chronological and positional balance. Generally I value James and STATS more than the WARPs -- largely because I am unclear on exactly what the mathematic formulae behind the WARPs are (even though I acknowledge I might not be able to follow them anyway at this point in my life).

Of the newbies I am so far most impressed by Sewell. It may take me a while to get my mind around Faber and Rixey...

1.Hugh Jennings – (3 AS + 2 MVP) His peak is among the highest ever at SS. He was not merely the top SS of an era abundant with outstanding shortstops. – the one-league 1890’s.. James (a peak fan) ranks Jennings 18th, just above Dahlen among all SSs... Jennings was an integral part of the “Old Orioles” dynasty of the ‘90s.

2. Frank Chance (7 AS, 1 MVP) Chance was the was the premier 1B in baseball for several years (weak years for the position). Conversely, I have Beckley as the top 1B for very few years. Very valuable on the bases.....Chance could rank higher if: (A) He was accorded credit for managing the Cubs; or (B) He was more durable player and put up career numbers like his longtime nemesis Fred Clarke.

3. Roger Bresnahan (4 STATS AS)– We have elected no Major League Catchers who played after Buck Ewing and don’t figure to until Hartnett/Cochrane (or perhaps Schang ?). This is nothing new to the voters. Bresnahan (along with Kling for a while) was generally regarded in his time as the top Catcher....I stumbled across a ranking in the STATS All-Time Source Book. placing Bresnahan as the #1 all-time Catcher in Relative (to league) Runs Created at 150 (topping Cochrane by some fraction). While IROD or Piazza may very well have passed him up since this book was issued after the 1997 season, it did cause me to revisit Bresnahan ....

4.Cupid Childs (5 AS) – I had him above McPhee based on his peak and strength of competition (as does James). I also think he hit a bit better than Bid (although his fielding was clearly inferior). Terrific player from the underappreciated (by us at least) 1890's.

5Hugh Duffy –(2 AS, 1 MVP) Duffy was integral part of Boston’s “team of the 90’s”. He had an exceptional peak and enough of a career that I can’t call it a fluke. Renowned as a heads-up player and a top-notch fielder. The fielding edge keeps him ahead of “Slug” – at least for now.

6.George Sisler (1 MVP, 6 AS) – Overrated yes but not THAT overrated. Strong peak (before sinus problem) and then a few years of accumulating numbers. Renowned as a great fielder – although the stats disagree. His slugging is weaker than Heillmann and his pennant impact pales next to Chance’s.

7Carl Mays (6 STATS AS) – Unfortunately one pitch forever tarnishes his legacy. My sense is that even with the election of Smokey Joe Williams we will still be under representing Pitchers. Certainly that is true if one views the HOF as a decent baseline. Mays probably threw the most effective rising fastball ever (because he threw from down under his heater actually could have risen). One of these heaters got away (at least that’s my take) and accounts for Major League Baseball’s sole fatality. This notorious “one that got away” also may have played an often unacknowledged role in the end of the “dead ball” era.

8.Mickey Welch – . His 300+ Wins are legit. I wonder why James leaves him off his top 100 but lists Mullane (whose career numbers need to be depreciated somewhat since he played in the AA) instead.

9. Clarke Griffith – Among the top Pitchers for the (in my opinion) underappreciated 1890's. For his day I do not see him as quite as strong as either Covaleski or Mays. The comparison between him and Smilin’ Mickey is a bit tougher for me, but I’m still leaning towards the 300 game winner based on some of the arguments advanced over the past few “years”.

10.Joe Sewell – very solid at a tough position (after Wagner we are now faced with a bit of a lull at SS).

11. JJ McGraw – Also, back on the ballot. A true winner as a player with the Old Orioles and then as a Manager. His On Base numbers are still among the highest ever.

12.Ed Rousch – Strong centerfielder – I like him more than Carey less than Duffy (since I favor peak).

13.Rube Waddell – Also, Back on the ballot... Very strong peak — great Strikeout Pitcher. If he weren’t somewhat of a “loon” (probably there is a more sensitive PC way to put it), he would probably have won 300 games.

14. Max Carey – even with more “timelining” credit than I am generally comfortable with James ranks him four notches below Duffy in the CF category (although I guess an argument could be made that he was among the best pure lead off hittesr for some time). I doubt anyone could have ever argued that he was the best of his time even at his position. Nonetheless, he creeps onto the ballot for his consistent ability to get on base and then score. In many ways his game was a sort of deadball game even though he played most of his career after the dawn of the power era.

15.Red Faber - For now he gets the bottom rung. As a peak voter I place him above out Rixey and especially Quinn. His career gives him the edge over Joss....

Others of note:

Lip Pike – The ultimate explanation for his (lack of) placement is that I hold his era in relatively low esteem and I don’t really believe he was dominant enough to overcome that.

Van Haltren (VH) - Strong career but not up to what I look for in a peak for his position.

Jimmy Ryan – I like his peak a bit more than VH’s. His train accident may be what keeps him out of the HOM.... as I recall he had quite a career going until that time.

Jake Beckley – Same as VH above only much more so. As a 1B he rates well-below Chance and just below Ed Konetchy (Sp ?).
   123. Guapo Posted: November 22, 2004 at 09:57 AM (#976929)
All these cryptic comments are very exciting for those of us who don’t keep track! The suspense is killing me. I’d like to think this will help clear things up, but I doubt it:

1. Joe Sewell- I’m a little surprised how many voters left him off-ballot. The American League is about 40 years old right now. Sewell has been the best shortstop for about 25% of the league’s history. His credentials clearly meet the standards of the HOM.
2. Max Carey- Another guy I see as an easy HOMer. Great (and underrated) peak and a defensive superstar.
3. Larry Doyle- Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence.
4. Wilbur Cooper- He was one of the very best pitchers in his league for 10 years- unless you completely discount the NL from 1914-1924, he meets the standards of the HOM.
5. George J. Burns- - OBP master- great leadoff hitter.
6. Eppa Rixey- I have him slightly better than Coveleski, so I’ll slot him in Stan’s slot from last year. Looks like an eventual electee, and probably sooner as opposed to later.
7. Jack Fournier- - Similar player to Cravath, had a great 5 year run. If I have to pick one first baseman to fill our first base dearth, this is the guy.
8. Gavvy Cravath- Had a great 5 year run at the top of the league.
9. Ed Konetchy - Another great first baseman, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played.
10. Ross Youngs- This is without any additional credit for his untimely death. Youngs was a terrific player- just didn’t live long enough to accrue career “points.” Nine full-time seasons, career avg. of .322 and OBP of .399. Led NY to 4 straight pennants from 1921-1924.
11. Dick Redding-
12. Jose Mendez- I really can’t differentiate between Redding and Mendez, so it seems to make sense to rank them together.
13. Fielder Jones- I’ve been wanting to get him back on the ballot for a while, and I finally indulged myself. A superior player at the turn of the century, great centerfielder, underrated because he played in a very hostile offensive environment.
14. Roger Bresnahan- A token vote for a great catcher who seems to have almost no shot of getting elected. I’m starting to feel uneasy about giving a positional bonus, considering we’ve elected more catchers than first basemen at this point.
15. George Sisler- Sneaks on to the ballot, barely edging off Tommy Leach and Ed Roush. You can’t argue with his peak... another two years like that, and he might have been a first ballot inductee.
   124. Guapo Posted: November 22, 2004 at 10:07 AM (#976934)
Thanksgiving Leftovers:

Lip Pike- Another candidate for the #15 spot, Pike is in my PHOM, has made my ballot before and may well make it again if he doesn’t get elected first. Ranks #18 right now.

Hughie Jennings- Ranks around #20 right now. Made my PHOM in 1912. May get elected before I get him back on the ballot.

Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career and was never one of the truly great players in the league. Will never make my ballot.

Clark Griffith- I have voted for him before, took another look at him, was not impressed, and dumped him. There are no pitchers off my ballot whose election I would be inclined to advocate.

Rube Waddell- We’ve elected a bunch of his mound peers. His career does not stand out compared to those elected.

Mickey Welch- Still on the radar. Don’t see him as particularly more compelling than McCormick and Mullane. You know it’s a bad sign when your supporters spend most of their time arguing that you’re better than your numbers because when you sucked, you sucked on purpose...

Cupid Childs: I always want to vote for him, but there’s a lot of people between him and the ballot. He’s probably around #22 right now. Dominated his position like few on the ballot, but I don’t see him as a superstar of the ‘90s. Highly likely to make my PHOM in the teens, though.

George Van Haltren: The lowest ranked member of the outfield glut for me, he surged ahead of the other contenders for reasons I don’t understand.Will never make my ballot.

Pete Browning- I understand why others might support him, but I have six eligible centerfielders ranked ahead of him.

Hugh Duffy- Made my PHOM in 1912. I have him ranked a little below Pike right now and would love to get him back on the ballot.

Red Faber- It seems odd, intuitively, to have Rixey at #6 and Faber off ballot. With Faber, I see the two really outstanding seasons, and then a good, but not great, pitcher for a long time. Guys like that don’t do it for me.

Rabbit Maranville- If the “lively ball era” had never come around, he might have been a star. (Of course, he ended up making the HOF anyway, so he’s not complaining.)
   125. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 22, 2004 at 03:44 PM (#977050)
We have 45 ballots up to this point. Still missing ballots from Joe (he'll have one up today), robc, Dan Rosenheck, Brad G. Philip, Devin McCullen, Buddah and jimd.

From now on, the new discussion thread will be
created after the election is over at 8 PM. That's exactly one week of discussion, so there shouldn't be any problems with anybody here.
   126. PhillyBooster Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:01 PM (#977071)
By my count (which is likely very wrong), one guy has opened a moderate -- but not insurmountable -- 50 point lead. There are still 6 players within 40 points of the #2 spot (four within 10 points), though, so the electees are changing with every ballot, and it should not be shocking to say any two of seven different names in ten hours.
   127. DavidFoss Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:21 PM (#977099)
EEP! What fun!

OK... ballots in by 5 PM, please. :-)

I don't want this one getting bumped up to the Supreme Court. :-)
   128. Evan Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:27 PM (#977111)
And the 1st place candidate has more first place votes than... the guy in 15th. Everyone else, 2-14, has the same or more votes. Wacky fun.
   129. Howie Menckel Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:29 PM (#977112)
I believe it's 8 pm Eastern time.

And probably the less said about early voting tallies, the better. Just ask John Kerry, lol. We'll have plenty of opportunity to rehash once we have two winners.

I do have 45 ballots in, though.
   130. DavidFoss Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:36 PM (#977127)
OK... ballots in by 5 PM, please. :-)

I believe it's 8 pm Eastern time.


Sorry... I'm on the West Coast here. :-)

8 PM EST, 5 PM PST... check your local listings. :-)
   131. karlmagnus Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:46 PM (#977150)
That will be 9pm by this site's bizarre clock. It seems we are fated to go through the winter on EDT, whether we want to or not.
   132. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:51 PM (#977162)
Here we go - better late than never. This was worth the wait, though, I've spent the last 10 hours or so doing a complete reshuffle of the ballot.

MAJOR RESHUFFLE THIS WEEK!

I don't have answers for all of the "Kelly Questions" as promised. Instead, I figured out Pennants Added (Win Shares only) for most players that received a vote last time. Can't post everything yet, hopefully later today.

The computations don't account for WS systematic early century issues (like overrating CF and underrating 1B). I make a mental adjustment for that - a mental adjustment that I try to put a number on.

I now include pitching Win Shares.

PA = Pennants Added
WSaR = Win Shares above replacement
WS = Win Shares

Both WS are adjusted to a 162 game season. Pitchers are also adjusted and lose more to replacement level because of the extra innings they threw. At 220 IP, the raw replacement level (6.5 WS) for a full season pitcher and hitter are equal.

Lip Pike (2) - (.887 PA, 224 WSaR, 276 WS) He was a great hitter. 155 OPS+ do not grow on trees . . . his mainstream statistically documented career doesn't include his accomplishments before age 26. A surprisingly easy choice this time around.

2. George Van Haltren (13) - (.979 PA, 280 WSaR, 403 WS) - Most WS and WSaR among position players on the ballot. Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6.

3. Charley Jones (5) - (.800 PA, 218 WSaR, 283 WS) Give him credit for his blackballed years at .08 per year and he's at .96 PA. Jones exceeded that 5 times in the 6 surrounding years, and the missing years were at age 31-32. Throw in 30 WS per year and we're at 343. Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow. Was better than I realized.

4. Jake Beckley (1) - (.844 PA, 251 WSaR, 363 WS) Another very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. Good for 22-25 WS a year for about 13-14 years, which is understated by about 2-3 per season because of WS undervaluing 1B in his era. That has a lot of value in my opinion. I see him as more Rafael Palmeiro than Harold Baines. His time has come.

If you give him 38 extra career WS (basically doubling what WS sees as his defensive value) for fielding, he vaults to 1.012 PA, 295 WSaR, 406 WS.

5. Eppa Rixey (n/e) - (280-237 CJ, .623 PA, 188 WSaR, 329 WS) I have no idea where to slot the pitchers among the position players. None. I'm fairly certain Rixey is the top pitcher, he'd be over 300 CJ wins (and around .700 PA) easily if he hadn't served in the military in 1918-19.

6. Red Faber (n/e) - (256-172 CJ, .609 PA, 182 WSaR, 310 WS). Higher quality compared to Rixey, but Rixey's quantity wins the higher spot on my ballot. Another pitcher hurt by 1918-19 military service.

7. Bill Monroe (3) - (Esitmated 344 WS if you give him credit for A defense) Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he was a star.

8. Jimmy Ryan (14) - (.904 PA, 260 WSaR, 361 WS) Great player from 1888-92, and a very good player during the remainder of his long career.

9. Max Carey (10) - (.905 PA, 262 WSaR, 372 WS) I'm not sure about him - he wasn't as good a hitter as Hooper, but he was a great defensive CF and a blazing runner. Is baseball reference correct that he was 51/53 as a basestealer in 1922? Wow. He's basically the Lou Brock of the 10s and 20s, but playing good CF instead of shaky LF (Brock made about 15 errors a year). He's behind Ryan despite being slightly ahead on the numbers because he played more CF. Sounds crazy, but CF from this generation are slightly overrated (because all OF spots hit similar, yet WS gives a decent bonus for playing CF).

10. Edd Roush (15) - (.902 PA, 255 WSaR, 337 WS) Great player from 1917-1920. His peak was every bit as good as Sisler. Sisler 1916-1922: 160 WSaR. Roush's best 7 seasons 165 WSaR. Sisler, one season over 25 WSaR. Roush two and another at 25. The remainder of their careers isn't close. I can't see voting Sisler over Roush. Even giving Sisler at 10% overall bonus for 1B not being measured correctly (which wouldn't even apply to 2nd half of Sisler's career, where 1B became a more offensive position Roush is ahead on all three measures.
   133. DavidFoss Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:51 PM (#977166)
That will be 9pm by this site's bizarre clock. It seems we are fated to go through the winter on EDT, whether we want to or not.

I think it has to be turned off manually.

Your Account -> Localization Settings -> Daylight Savings Time

Sometimes I do get a flash of EDT, but if I click reload and make sure I'm logged in, I get my local time settings.

OK... short work week. I have to stop using this website as a procrastination tool. :-)
   134. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 22, 2004 at 04:53 PM (#977175)
11. Clark Griffith (6) - (231-152 CJ, .692 PA, 198 WSaR, 313 WS). He rates as the top post 1893 pitcher on the ballot, by a long-shot - though earlier pitchers seem to have an advantage on PA (more innings in a season = more pennant impact). I think overall the pitcher numbers are low, so I'm bumping them all a bit.

Also, I cannot find an method that list McGinnity ahead of Griffith. Chris J record? 231-152 is basically equal to 234-154. McGinnity only gets .668 PA, 185 WSaR, 296 WS. Under the old numbers, Griffith had McGinnity by 9 or 10 WARP1 and WARP3, and the margins were similar on PA. Why the rush on McGinnity and the stonewalling of Griffith? I just don't get it. I think we were way too friendly to McGinnity.

12. Tommy Leach (n/r) - (.892 PA, 256 WSaR, 351 WS) Win Shares loves this guy. He's underrated as a 3B and overrated as a CF because of the time he played in, but in the end it's a wash. Sure it wasn't a great league, but that's an awful lot of WS to turn your back on. I was underrating him.

13. Hugh Duffy (n/r) - (.928 PA, 258 WSaR, 343 WS) What? The guy I bashed, bashed and bashed again? I guess I was discounting his 1891 too heavily. It needs to be deflated, but not as much as I had. I also laughed away his 1894 as a very good year, but not a historic one in context - again, I was probably too harsh there.

14. Wally Schang (8) - (.644 PA, 195 WSaR, 260 WS) The best catcher we've seen since Buck Ewing. 117 OPS+ that was OBP heavy (career .393 OBP) and he lasted 19 years, though he never played more than 134 games in a season. He rates higher on WS than Charlie Bennett (.593, 173 WSaR, 234 WS).

Schang is miles ahead of Schalk (.466 PA, 141 WSaR, 204 WS), and as far as I can tell, any catcher of the era 1910-30 era.

15. George Sisler (n/r) - (.732 PA, 214 WSaR, 303 WS) Most of what I want to say about him is covered in the Roush comment. Additionally, Sisler was a great player from 1916-22. 1B had more defensive responsibility and Sisler still hit like a great outfielder. I see as quite similar to Don Mattingly, but Sisler was able to sustain his greatness a little bit longer and would have to rank ahead if forced to choose among them. I give him a 7.7% bonus for playing 1B - this is the percentage of his pennants added that game before 1923 (the date I generally use as my cutoff for deadball the deadball 1B bonus).
   135. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 22, 2004 at 05:06 PM (#977207)
Next in line

Pitchers

Mickey Welch (7) - (302-215 CJ, 1.271 PA, 313 WSaR, 524 WS). He compares better to the top pitchers (Clarkson 299-207, Radbourn 292-212, Galvin 361-313, Keefe 329-228) of his era using Chris J's methodology. I've been convinced that it doesn't make sense to rank them highly and not Welch - and I ranked them highly.

But, I'm not sure what to make of his WS under the old standards. That method puts McCormick (267-212 CJ, 351 WSaR, 1.500 PA) in the class of Galvin (351, 1.526), Radbourn (390, 1.782) and Keefe (329-228, 381, 1.589), but not Welch.

Win Shares likes Carl Mays (.623 PA), Wilbur Cooper (.607), Jack Quinn (.594, not deflating 1914), Rube Waddell (.530) and Urban Shocker (.530).

RSI likes Quinn (256-209 - but with 38-33 from the Federal League), Redding (230-177 - Chris Cobb record), Shocker (186-118), Jose Mendez (195-133 - CC), Waddell (198-138), Eddie Rommel (178-112) and Addie Joss (163-94). It has Mays at just 188-146 and Cooper at 217-177.

All I know right now is that none of them are very close to my ballot, except for possibly Redding. My recalc probably put Coveleski (212-145, .589 PA) at the top of this pack, not sure if he would have been #15 or just off this time around if he hadn't already been elected.
   136. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 22, 2004 at 05:29 PM (#977275)
next in line

Position players

Dobie Moore - I probably should have put him ahead of Sisler. I will correct this next time. Estimates from 250-345 WS.

Harry Hooper .820 PA, 240 WSaR, 345 WS

Ben Taylor 325 estimated WS - closer to my ballot than I realized.

Spotswood Poles 332 estimated WS
Fielder Jones .827 PA, 236 WSaR, 319 WS

Frank Chance .709 PA, 200 WSaR, 253 WS - bonuses for catching and playing 1B give him a healthy bump.

Jules Thomas - educated guess - similar offensive value (more power, less OBP though), less defense than Poles.
Larry Doyle .801 PA, 229, WSaR, 305 WS

Roger Bresnahan (n/r) - (.641 PA, 187 WSaR, 245 WS) I was shocked the numbers came out as close to Schang as they did. After looking at Bennett and Ewing (.876 PA, 249 WSaR, 323 WS) I'm definitely giving a catcher bonus. Ewing was regarded as one of the best players of all-time as late as the 1940s. Catchers just couldn't play enough and unless we don't want any, I don't see any way around it. Strictly by the numbers, Ewing would be between Tommy Leach and Fielder Jones. I'm giving the catchers roughly a 33% bonus (for a full-time catcher). This would make a 300 WS catcher equivalent to a 400 WS player at another position - the area where you have to come up with a reason to keep them out.

Bresnahan doesn't get nearly the bonus Schang does, because he only caught 2/3 as much. But he gets a nice bump here (about 22%, Schang gets about 29%). Bennett would be behind Schang and ahead of Bresnahan.

Pete Browning (.892 PA, 241 WSaR, 307 WS) - league quality issues drop him about this far.

Herman Long (.755 PA, 217 WSaR, 308 WS) - better than I thought - as the shortstops on this ballot go, he rates out highest, which surprised me.

Tom York .808 PA, 231 WSaR, 317 WS
Ed Konetchy .732 PA, 214 WSaR, 303 WS
George J. Burns .798 PA, 224, WSaR, 310 WS
Mike Tiernan .792 PA, 222 WSaR, 296 WS

Joe Sewell (.733 PA, 212 WSaR, 293 WS) - Surprised he comes out this low. But his career was short, just 12 years as a regular. His peak wasn't all that high either. Good player, but the type that needs a long career to get inducted, IMO.

Cupid Childs (.734 PA, 205 WSaR, 278 WS) - I'm sorry John but WS and I just can't see it. 3 huge years, but not enough in total.

Rabbit Maranville (.684 PA, 205 WSaR, 317 WS) - gets a boost for his missing 1918 season - long career, not enough meat on the bones. Was a pretty good player kind of like if Davey Concepcion had stuck around forever.

Hughie Jennings (12) - (.714 PA, 193 WSaR, 251 WS) Great peak, but it was just 5 years, there's not a lot on the resume besides that. His career number turned out higher than I expected (on the strength of those 5 great seasons) It's just not enough, too many players did more.

Lave Cross, .716 PA, 214 WSaR, 319 WS - gets a little bonus for catching over 300 games early in his career. Never realized he caught.

Mike Griffin .751 PA, 215 WSaR, 289 WS
Ed Willamson, .715 PA, 202 WSaR, 278 WS

Dave Bancroft (11) - (.693 PA, 202 WSaR, 287 WS) Drops some. First he missed time in his best seasons with the stick (only 127/128 G in 1925/26). He'd lost a little defensively by then too.

He was a great defensive SS, and an average hitter (for a hitter, good hitter for a SS). I like his extra years just a tad more than Jennings' monster years. Bancroft's 1921, 25, 26 were great offensive seasons for a SS.

Bancroft had 103 dWS, a great total. Ozzie Smith had 140, for perspective. Ozzie played 2511 games at SS, Bancroft 1873.

Offensively, picture Steve Sax, only if he played 4-5 years longer, and at a slightly better level (Sax 95 OPS+, Bancroft 98). That's a heck of an offensive player for a SS who was close to Ozzie Smith's defense. Bancroft was a very good player, but there just isn't quite as much as I thought.

John McGraw .672 PA, 188 WSaR, 241 WS
Ollie Marcelle 250 estimated WS.
Bruce Petway 181 estimated WS at catcher.
   137. Brad G Posted: November 22, 2004 at 05:39 PM (#977303)
1939 Ballot:

1.Max Carey- the best eligible CF, in my book, and I’m a big fan of the position. I also tend to favor the career guys.

2.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Second look makes him even more impressive.

3.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 Centerfielder of all time.

4.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS5 = 145.

5.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Too bad he’s a CF. Conservative ranking, this is.

6.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445.

7.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

8.Bobby Veach- Career WARP1 = 98.6, WARP3 = 82.1, Black Ink = 22, Gray Ink = 170.

9.George J. Burns- Had a real nice career. Career WARP3= 63.3, Black Ink= 33, Gray= 165.

10.Red Faber- His career numbers aren’t blowing me away, but certainly he needs consideration. I think Faber’s the best of the new guys.

11.Pete Browning- Put up some monster offensive numbers, led by the 162 OPS+. Not so long ago, he was ahead of the likes of Pearce and Caruthers in balloting.

12.Clark Griffith- Excellent Win Share pitcher: Career WS = 266, WS3 = 96, WS5 = 143.

13.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.

14.Tommy Leach- Career Win Shares = 329, WARP1 = 113.7, WARP3 = 74.8

15.Roger Bresnahan- For years, he’s been at the top of the Catcher list.

16-20: Jennings, Sewell, Childs, Cravath, Doyle

Missing: Lip Pike- Ranks #25 currently, will get a better look next ballot (revised system underway)

Thanks!
   138. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: November 22, 2004 at 06:00 PM (#977343)
Sorry if I'm repeating, but I haven't read the ballot thread yet (and I will get mine in today, don't worry), and I thought I should bring this up.

I think there's an error on Chris's RSI pages for Red Faber. I assume that the total Adj. W-L record should be the sum of the season-by-season records, but Faber's is WAY off. The given record is 257-171, but when I added the records, I got 255-212. Obviously, that's a huge difference, and was one of the major reasons I had Faber ahead of Rixey. (As if my ballot wasn't confused enough...). Chris, if you can check on this, I'd appreciate it.
   139. PhillyBooster Posted: November 22, 2004 at 06:16 PM (#977386)
Joe's ballot:

15. George Sisler (n/r) - (.732 PA, 214 WSaR, 303 WS)

. . .

Ed Konetchy .732 PA, 214 WSaR, 303 WS


Surprisingly, George Sisler and Ed Konetchy are exactly the same person.

Who knew?
   140. Philip Posted: November 22, 2004 at 06:41 PM (#977453)
Leach and Faber make my pHoM this year…

1. Pike (7-5-5-3-1) – He was a star as a secondbaseman in the 60’s and a centerfielder in the 70’s. A star in this era should rate higher than just a very good player from any other era.
2. Griffith (9-7-7-5-3) – Unfortunately his support his fading. Covaleski with a little less peak
3. Leach (13-11-9-7-5) – Another infielder who is greatly underrated. Should rate close to Groh but probably doesn’t get the positional boost Groh is getting. Similar career to Ryan/VH comes out ahead when taking into account his time at third base. Makes my pHoM this year.
4. Faber (new) – Both Rixey and Faber have nice careers but lack the peak of Covaleski. Faber’s peak is higher than Rixey’s.
5. Mendez (15-13-10-8-6) – Great peak, a little more career and he would be a clear HOMer. Now he is still a borderline candidate.
6. Rixey (new) – see Faber.
7. Van Haltren (8-8-11-9-7) – Made my pHoM a few years ago and was probably the last of the 19th century to do so.
8. Shocker (14-12-13-11-8) – Typical 10’s/20’s pitcher who makes my ballot based on his great peak. Underrated by this group.
9. Carey (15-14-12-9) – More career value than any of the remaing candidates who have at least a distinguishable peak.
10. Ryan (6-11-9-12-10-10) – Nearly identical to VH.

11. Redding (13-11) – Using Chris Cobb’s Win Share estimates, he rates very similar to Cooper.
12. Cooper (17-16-15-14-12) – Steadily rising in my ranking. Still have to see if he stood out enough from his pears to remain so high.

13. C. Jones (21-22-16-15-13) – Every now and then Ol’ Charlie reappears on my ballot. Jones leads a large group of very good players who I don’t feel are HoM-worthy.
14. Roush (14) – See #13
15. Hooper (15) – See #13

Sewell and Maranville are around #50. I’m especially surprised to see the support for Sewell. Not enough career value for me.
   141. robc Posted: November 22, 2004 at 07:15 PM (#977530)
For the 3rd or 4th consecutive year, I havent posted a prelim ballot. Busy time. Anyway, primarily career Warp3, with some peak and position and other adjustments. Some changes this time around.

1. Max Carey - Easily number 1 this year. Not a no-brainer by any means, but still well ahead of the field.
--
2. Lave Cross - 1 more 3rd basemen will make me very happy for a number of years.
-
3. Harry Hooper - clear cut #3 for me. The first 3 choices made themselves, little judgement necessary.
-
4. Joe Sewell - 4 thru 9 is a crapshoot. I can accept these players in any order. I tried my best to sort them out, but they are so close that it was difficult.
5. Bobby Veach - part of the OF glut.
6. Cupid Childs - I said he was going to drop big this year. I was wrong, or actually, I changed things around yet again.
7. Fielder Jones - more glut.
8. Ben Taylor - Negro leaguers either seem to get in quickly or fall off the ballot. Taylor may follow the Frank Grant pattern.
9. Jake Beckley - career value.
-
10. Wally Schang - the last "in" player. Not as good as the group above, better than everyone else.
-
11. Red Faber - 11 thru 30 are fairly indistinguishable, but Red has a chance to escape from this group.
12. Tommy Leach - Filler from here on down.
13. Mike Tiernan
14. George VanHaltren
15. Rube Waddell

16. Rabbit Maranville - I thought he would make my ballot.
17. George J. Burns
18. Jimmy Ryan
19. Del Pratt
20. Billy Nash
21. John McGraw
22. Eppa Rixey - If you tell me that he is better than Faber, I wont disagree. These 11 spots arent very far apart.
23. Lip Pike - the highest he has been in a long while.
24. Hughie Jennings - used to be solidly on my ballot, may get back there someday.
25. Ray Schalk
26. Ed Konetchy
27. Clark Griffith - Like Jennings, used to be on my ballot. Better pitchers came along.
28. George Sisler - when he was great, he was great.
29. Mickey Welch - sees my top 30 for the first time in a long time.
30. Pete Browning
   142. Buddha Posted: November 22, 2004 at 07:22 PM (#977550)
1) George Sisler: One of the most dominant hitters before his eye problems and still a top performer afterwards. Combined with his reputation for good defense, I think he belongs.

2) Rube Waddell: Dominating pitcher, love the K's and the ERA+.

3) Max Carey: No great peak, but such great defense at such an important position. More offense than Maranville, who also played great defense at an important position for a long period of time.

4) Hughie Jennings: Great peak, great in the field, but no longevity.

5) Jake Beckley: Then anti-Hughie, no great peak but lots of longevity.

6) Clark Griffith: Long career of being really good.

7) Joe Sewell: Don't know how I feel about Sewell yet. Good on defense, decent career length, but that OPS+ of 109 kinda bothers me a bit. Seems like a slap hitter. I think he might be moving up on the list when I have more time to examine his career.

8) Cupid Childs: Kinda long career of being really good.

9) Pete Browning: Really good, not great.

10) Mickey Welch: Ditto.

11) Hugh Duffy: Great hitting career during a great time to be a hitter.

12) Eddie Cicotte: Like him a lot but just can't get past 1919.

13) Gavy Cravath: Like the PCL and AA history.

14) Frank Chance: Good numbers and good defense at a time when first base defense was more important than it is now. Good leader by all accounts.

15) Red Faber: Just a little higher on my list than Rixey. But not by much. Neither great enough to warrant HOM induction.

Just miss: Rixey and Maranville. Can't get over Maranville's bad offense to reward him for longevity and defense. Not enough to me for him to make a Hall of Merit list.
   143. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 22, 2004 at 08:15 PM (#977682)
Devin, I'm sure you are right - uh oh, this could be a big problem.

Faber was 254-213 in real life, so 255-212 makes a lot more sense.

I had Faber at #6 basing things in part on Chris J.'s RSI record - I couldn't figure why his record was so much better but his WS numbers didn't match up. It was strange and I hedged.

I would like to drop Faber to #10 and move Monroe, Ryan, Carey and Roush each up a spot. My ballot is at #132 and #134.

I'm going to post something separate to allow people to change their vote if they were basing it on Chris J's record.

We might want to hold off the tally until tomorrow, so people have a chance to see error and update their ballot if necessary.

Actually to make it easier on the counters:

1. Lip Pike
2. George Van Haltren
3. Charley Jones
4. Jake Beckley
5. Eppa Rixey
6. Bill Monroe
7. Jimmy Ryan
8. Max Carey
9. Edd Roush
10. Red Faber
11. Clark Griffith
12. Tommy Leach
13. Hugh Duffy
14. Wally Schang
15. Dobie Moore (this is also different)

off now - George Sisler

I mentioned above that I messed up and had Sisler 15 and Moore 16, since I'm changing it anyway now, I may as well fix this too.
   144. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 22, 2004 at 09:09 PM (#977834)
1939 ballot

1. Charley Jones
Short seasons understate his greatness, he was extraordinarily good in 1879 and dominated the early AA as well. Blacklist years not his fault.

2. Clark Griffith
ERA+ makes it seem that Griffith had one dominant year in 1898 and was just above average elsewhere. In fact, he was just as good in 1899 (look at K, BB, HR, and BABIP/Teammates' BABIP), was a reliable workhorse, and pitched at an All-Star level for a decade. You can't see his greatness on the surface, but look deeper into the numbers and from 1896-1901 he was a genuine superstar.

3. Lip Pike
Obviously a truly dominant player in the NA and 1876 NL, played many years pre-1871 at a very high level.

4. Pete Browning
1890 showed us he was for real, so his knock-em-dead years in '82, '85 and '87 have to be taken seriously. More career value than the “career” guys GVH/Beckley by my measure, and a true dominator for three or four seasons. Hopefully I can drum up some support for him; he really deserves it.

5. Cupid Childs
Offensive juggernaut at a scarce position with often excellent leather for eight years. A bona fide superstar in '90, '92, and '96, and a strong All-Star in '93 and '97. Didn't play forever but so good that he accumulated more career value than the "career guys" IMO. We don't have anyone from his era at his position, and he played in a stronger league than his comps by my estimate.

6. Joe Sewell
Strongest of the newcomers. A career .391 OBP from an excellent defensive SS is impressive, and had a phenomenal, MVP-caliber year in 1923 in which he wasn't even the best player on his own team. Didn't play forever, but was a strong All-Star caliber player for a decade. I like him and support his induction.

7. Max Carey
A great player, but never an MVP candidate really.

8. Edd Roush
Some peak, some career, not tons of either.

9. Red Faber
Two huge years and pitched forever.

10. Addie Joss
Joss had a remarkable ability to prevent hits on balls in play, allowing a BABIP 31 points lower than his teammates' for his career (.238/.269). He had six seasons where he was absolutely one of the best in the biz, including 1908 which was particularly standout. His rate stats were so good that even despite his innings problem, he still comes out here on both career and peak.

11. Hughie Jennings
So good for five years that he was more valuable than guys who played for three times as long.

12. George Sisler
Gotta respect the peak, but not good enough for long enough.

13. Rube Waddell
Rube’s taken a big hit with my reevaluation. I *love* the K's, but now that I can see that deadball pitchers really could prevent hits on balls in play, he stands out less than he did before. It's worth nothing that his 1903 season was just as good as his much more highly regarded '04--almost as many innings, same BB/K/HR rates, similar propensity to giving up line drives (BABIP 5% higher than teammates' in '03, 6% in '04). '02 was really his best season though. One of the best pitchers in baseball from '02-'05, but not an otherworldly dominator and not enough career to push him further up the ballot or into my revised PHoM.

14. Eddie Cicotte
He really was a premier, superstar pitcher from 1917-19, and was serviceable in 1913 and 1920. A slightly above league average pitcher for the rest of his career.

15. Rabbit Maranville
I didn't like Bobby Wallace and I don't like him.

Left off

Eppa Rixey
Just not enough peak for me.

Jimmy Ryan
He doesn’t fare that well in my system, but I do have to give respect to his near-ballot-topping career value and he did at least have two great years in 1888 and 89.

John McGraw
He didn't play long enough to make the HoM, and rarely played full seasons even when he did. But man, was he good--an on-base machine the likes of which the game has rarely seen since.

Vic Willis
Just kept churning out those innings at an above-average level. The Beckley of pitchers, but a more valuable career than Beckley and at least a genuine All-Star once or twice.

Dave Bancroft
A historically great defensive SS. Could be a mid-ballot pick in a weak year.

Wally Schang
Two 20-WS seasons ain't gonna get it done for me.

Jack Quinn
What peak?
   145. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: November 23, 2004 at 12:05 AM (#978280)
Okay, getting it in ahead of the deadline. Lucky I knew it’d be slow at work, so I could spend more time dithering over who’d make my PHoM this year. (Sewell and Monroe)

1. Lip Pike (1) Seems to have been among the best 5 or 6 players in baseball for almost a decade, which no one below him on the ballot can say. Made my PHoM in 1919.

2. Joe Sewell (new) I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league, although WARP 3 might over-correct for this. Not the most sure-fire HoMer ever, but on this ballot, he ranks highly. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Cupid Childs (3) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. I'd say his defensive advantage outweighs Doyle's offensive one. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my HoM in 1932.

4. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Have him close to Childs, and if Joe’s suggestions on his WS are accurate, he’s worthy of induction. Well ahead of DeMoss. Makes my PHoM this year.

5. George Van Haltren (6) Ahead of Ryan, but not by much. Either way, they're close enough that I don't understand why GVH is significantly ahead in the balloting. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That doesn't seem like a HoMer to me – I came very close to putting him in my PHoM this year, but couldn’t pull the trigger. From the silly trivia dept., he’s Dontrelle Willis’ most-similar pitcher through age 22.

6. Dick Redding (7) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not.

7. Max Carey (10) His peak is not great, but it's not much worse than any of the other CFs on the ballot. He looks pretty close in value to Mike Griffin with a few average (and a few below-average) seasons tacked on. And after my comment on GVH, he never made the top 10 in OPS+, although he was a leadoff (sorry, leadoff-type) man.

8. Tommy Leach (8) Comparison to Groh shows I've been underrating him some. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter, but ultimately too many below-average seasons..

9. Jimmy Ryan (9) Drops behind GVH after another look at his post-accident drop-off. He and George were very good players for a reasonably long time, but I don't think they were ever great.

(9A Sam Thompson)

10. Red Faber (new) I may be too tough on pitchers in general, but Faber doesn’t stand out for me in the way that Coveleski did. It’s possible that he and Rixey may move up in the future.

11. Jose Mendez (12) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t match up to Redding.

(11B Rube Foster)

12. Hughie Jennings (11) His peak still leaps out at you, but there's just so little around it that I can’t put him higher than this.

13. Eppa Rixey (new) My instincts say he should be ahead of Faber, but not strongly enough to overrule the numbers for now. They’re clearly pretty close in value, though.

14. Spotswood Poles (13) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good. Does anyone like him as much as Bill (might make his Top 100) James?

15. Bobby Veach (14) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.

16. Larry Doyle. (17) Amazingly similar to Ed Konetchy, but definitely a worse fielder. Is the 2B offense better than the 1B Defense?
17. Ben Taylor (16) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
18. Jake Beckley. (19) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit.
19. Rube Waddell (23) Every time I check the numbers recently he moves up, but still not that much meat on the bones.
20. Clark Griffith (15) And his numbers keep pushing him down. I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers,
21. Dave Bancroft (18) Not a major embarrassment to the HoF (and James said as much), but not much to separate him from the Pratt-Doyle-Long MI glut.
22. Del Pratt. (22) WARP likes him a LOT more than Win Shares does.
23. Harry Hooper (20) Similar to Wheat in some ways, but not as good. Pretty low OPS+ for a corner OF candidate.
24. Roger Bresnahan (35) I was underrating catchers, and didn’t realize how good his CF years were. But the career’s still too short.
25. Rabbit Maranville (new) Lousy hitter, but he did stick around for quite a number of years. Never going to make my ballot.
26. George Sisler (21) His peak is good, but doesn't stick out like Jennings', and his career value isn't anything special.
27. Mike Griffin (24) Doesn't quite match up to the other OFs, but it's close. Wish he hadn't retired when he did.
28. Lave Cross (38) The lesser Beckley, but I had been too harsh on him.
29. Ed Konetchy (31) Hard to keep him too far below Sisler.
30. Jim McCormick (25) Not that far behind the other 1880s pitchers, pitched for some awful teams.

36. Mickey Welch (29) I don’t buy the hype. I don’t think he was as good as McCormick, and we’ve got enough 1880s players anyway.
   146. KJOK Posted: November 23, 2004 at 01:40 AM (#978380)
I’m especially surprised to see the support for Sewell. Not enough career value for me.

You seem to be implying a short career for Sewell, but he has just a 1/2 season of PA's less than Barry Larkin, and more PA's currently than Omar Vizquel.

Comes in about 27th all time in PA's for SS's.
   147. jimd Posted: November 23, 2004 at 01:57 AM (#978402)
Ballot for 1939

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

In the midst of major revision of my system (yet again). Maybe next election.

1) H. JENNINGS -- Using rolling 5-year peaks for WARP-3, of those eligible, only he can claim to have been the "best player in baseball". All of the others have already been elected or are not yet eligible; elected to my PHOM a quarter-century ago.

Thought experiment: Pick your favorite "no-brainer" HOMer. If you cut his career short due to a Sisler/Delahanty tragedy, at what point is it too short and no longer a HOM career?

2) M. CAREY -- Enough extra career over Hooper (by Win Shares) to land mid-ballot.

3) R. FABER -- Best fringe pitcher we've seen in a while.

4) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

5) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

6) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; looked at new WARP and liked what I saw.

7) N. WILLIAMSON -- My system rates him just ahead of Groh at 3B.

8) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

9) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Deserves votes, though not inclusion (at least yet).

10) R. MARANVILLE -- Long solid career.

11) H. DUFFY -- Underrated.

12) H. HOOPER -- Long solid career.

13) J. RYAN -- All been said before.

14) G. SISLER -- I know, mostly peak, but it's not bad.

15) E. RIXEY -- Long solid career.

Just missing the cut are:
16-18) Fielder Jones, Herman Long, Dick Redding,
19-21) Jim McCormick, Tommy Bond, Jose Mendez,
22-24) Del Pratt, Gavy Cravath, Rube Waddell,
25-27) Spotswood Poles, Lip Pike, Clark Griffith,
28-30) Jake Beckley, Roy Thomas, Roger Bresnahan

Sorry, but no on Mickey Welch.
   148. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 23, 2004 at 02:06 AM (#978409)
Jim is the last voter. Looking over the results, I can't see how any revised ballots would affect anything. This is not an Urban legend. It's the real Scoop. :-)

Sometime tonight I'll post the results. If you have any compiled results, send 'em over!
   149. OCF Posted: November 23, 2004 at 02:09 AM (#978413)
Well, that's it, with the all the same voters as last year. I think I know who won, but I guess we'll all hold off on saying. At this point, I've got an average consensus score of -8.5, with only two voters positive (and one of those rounds to 0) while 24 of the 53 scored -10 or below.
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