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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Tuesday, November 09, 2004

1938 Election Results: Immortality is Awarded to Groh and Coveleski Via the Hall of Merit!

In the election with the least consensus among the HoM voters ever (a record 63 candidates had their names on at least one ballot), Cincinnati’s finest third baseman Heinie Groh edged out his nearest opponent to win the first spot this “year” for induction in his sixth year of eligibility.

Not that far behind, Cleveland mound legend Stan Coveleski earned the second HoM spot in his fifth year of eligibility. Both players were far ahead of the other 61 candidates.

Among the top-ten also rans, Max Carey (who had the most #1 votes for this election), Lip Pike and Hughie Jennings appear to be the strongest candidates to take on the newbies of 1939.

Rounding out the top-ten returnees were Jake Beckley, Clark Griffith, George Sisler, Rube Waddell and Mickey Welch.

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1    3  Heinie Groh              826   49   5 11  4  7  1  3  2  2  3  5  3  2  1      
 2    4  Stan Coveleski           794   49   5  7  8  4  5  3  2  2  3  1  1  3  4     1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 3    5  Max Carey                547   35   9     2  2  2  3  1  4  3  2  2  2  2     1
 4    6  Lip Pike                 520   29   8  3     5  5  2     3           1  2      
 5    8  Hughie Jennings          490   30   7  2  4  3  3  1     1        3  3     2  1
 6    7  Jake Beckley             446   27   3  5  2  3  2  1     5  2  2        1     1
 7   11  Clark Griffith           429   34      2  4  2     4  2  3  2  3  2  1  4  2  3
 8   10  George Sisler            415   32   1  1  6  2  3  1  1  3     1  1  4  1  3  4
 9    9  Rube Waddell             405   31   1  1  1  2  2  4  3  4  5  1        3  1  3
10   12  Mickey Welch             384   22   6  4  1  1  1  1  1     3     1  1     1  1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   15  Cupid Childs             374   29   1  1  4  2  1     3  1  4  1  1  3  5  2   
12   14  George Van Haltren       363   25   2  3  4  1  1  1  1  1  2  1  1  2  2  2  1
13   13  Pete Browning            361   23      6  3  2  1  2  1        3  1  2  1     1
14   16  Hugh Duffy               343   26   1  1  2  1  3  4  1  1  1  3  2     1  5   
15   18  Cannonball Dick Redding  313   26      1     1     1  4  3  2  5  7        2   
16   20  Tommy Leach              306   26               6  4  1  1  3  1  2  1  1  3  3
17   17  Edd Roush                303   25      1        1  2  6  3  3  2  1  2     1  3
18   19  Roger Bresnahan          266   23         2     2  1  3  2  2  1     6     2  2
19   21  José Méndez              258   23         2  1     1  1  2  2  4  2  4  1     3
20   22  Jimmy Ryan               209   18         1  2  1  1  2     2  2  1  1     3  2
21   24  Charley Jones            193   13   1  1  1     3     1  2  1  1     1  1      
22   25  Larry Doyle              190   13   2  1     1  1  2  1        2        1     2
23   23  Wally Schang             182   16   1           1  1  1  2  1     2  2  2  3   
24   27  Bill Monroe              168   16         1  1  1     1     2  1  2  1  1  1  4
25   26  Harry Hooper             144   12            3  1     2           1  1  3     1
26   29  Bobby Veach              136   13               1  1  1     1  1  3  1  1  3   
27   28  Carl Mays                109   11                     2           4  2  2  1   
28   30  John McGraw              101    8      1        1  1  1     1           1  1  1
29   33  George J. Burns           92    9               1     1  1     1  1     1  2  1
30   31  Ben Taylor                91    7            1  1  2  1                 1     1
31T  38  Ed Cicotte                78    8            1        1     1        1     2  2
31T  34  Vic Willis                78    8                  1        1  1  1  1  1  1  1
33   36  Urban Shocker             73    7                        2     2  1     1  1   
34   32  Addie Joss                72    6                     2  1     1  2            
35   39  Frank Chance              68    6      1                 2                 1  2
36   35  Fielder Jones             66    6               1  1           1     1  1  1   
37   37  Spotswood Poles           61    5            1     1     1              2      
38   41  Gavy Cravath              60    5            1     1     1              1  1   
39   40  Ed Williamson             50    5                  1           1     1  1  1   
40   44  Wilbur Cooper             43    4            1                    1  1     1   
41   42  Dave Bancroft             40    5                                 1  1  1  1  1
42   43  Ed Konetchy               33    3                           2        1         
43   45  Ray Schalk                26    2                  1           1               
44   47  Lave Cross                25    2         1                                1   
45   46  Dobie Moore               21    2                              1  1            
46T  49  Donie Bush                17    1            1                                 
46T  50  Fred Dunlap               17    1            1                                 
48   55T Del Pratt                 16    2                                 1           1
49   48  Tommy Bond                16    1               1                              
50T  57T Tony Mullane              14    2                                       1     1
50T  57T Mike Tiernan              14    2                                       1     1
52T  52T Jack Fournier             14    1                     1                        
52T  52T Sam Leever                14    1                     1                        
52T  51  Tom York                  14    1                     1                        
55   54  Jim McCormick             12    1                           1                  
56   55T Ross Youngs               11    1                              1               
57   57T Herman Long               10    1                                 1            
58T  57T Mike Griffin               7    1                                          1   
58T n/e  Oliver Marcelle            7    1                                          1   
60T n/e  Jake Daubert               6    1                                             1
60T  53T Bruce Petway               6    1                                             1
60T n/e  Eddie Rommel               6    1                                             1
60T n/e  Jim Whitney                6    1                                             1

Thanks to Evan Reich and Ron Wargo for double-checking the results!

 

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2004 at 02:53 AM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2004 at 03:25 AM (#958622)
hot topics
   2. Paul Wendt Posted: November 09, 2004 at 03:42 AM (#958636)
> Both players were far ahead of the other 61 candidates.

Carey, Pike, Jennings, and Welch all had more #1 votes.
Fascinating.
   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2004 at 03:45 AM (#958640)
Carey, Pike, Jennings, and Welch all had more #1 votes.
Fascinating.


Yet couldn't make in on more than 35 ballots, Mr. Spock. :-)
   4. DavidFoss Posted: November 09, 2004 at 04:06 AM (#958663)
FWIW, Groh & Coveleski were 1-2 in "elect-me" votes.

Anyhow, congrats to Heinie and Stan!
   5. OCF Posted: November 09, 2004 at 08:55 AM (#959017)
I have a problem with the official count. I have Groh with 11 second place votes and 4 third place votes, and Coveleski with 7 second place votes and 8 third place votes. Hence I have Groh with 826 votes and Coveleski with 794.

I have the following voters as putting Groh 2nd and Coveleski 3rd: John Murphy (#1), MIchael Bass (#9), David Foss (#60), and Max Parkinson (#142). Could you recheck how you've tallied those particular votes?
   6. robc Posted: November 09, 2004 at 02:44 PM (#959152)
Carey gets 9 elect-me votes, all of them 1st. Weird.
   7. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2004 at 03:54 PM (#959192)
Thanks, OCF!
   8. Evan Posted: November 09, 2004 at 04:36 PM (#959209)
I concur with OCF on his count.
   9. ronw Posted: November 09, 2004 at 05:30 PM (#959280)
I submitted the same totals that OCF had to John Murphy and Joe Dimino. They were not used by Mr. Murphy.

As punishment for his deception, John shall be forced to read, in detail, each of jonsey's Wes Ferrell posts.
   10. OCF Posted: November 09, 2004 at 05:42 PM (#959282)
Consensus scores:

Average: -4.5

Highest: jschmeagol +6, Chris Cobb +4, the new guy (Tiboreau) +4, Buddha +4.

Lowest: jhwinfrey -18, Guapo -17, Ron Wargo -14, Eric C -14.

Closest to average (within .01 of it): John Murphy.

Previous year of greatest disagreement was 1931. In that year, the average was -3.1, the highest scores were +6, +5, +5, +5 and the lowest scores were -22, -14, -13, -13.
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2004 at 05:55 PM (#959303)
I submitted the same totals that OCF had to John Murphy and Joe Dimino. They were not used by Mr. Murphy.

I not only did read yours and Evan's totals, they also match what I originally had, too! Some of the formulas on my ballot counter were screwed up. Me thinks gremlins have overtaken my computer (or at least Excell).

As punishment for his deception, John shall be forced to read, in detail, each of jonsey's Wes Ferrell posts.

That's been done already weeks ago. Even enjoyed them.

Closest to average (within .01 of it): John Murphy.

To close to the truth in many other areas. :-(

Lowest: jhwinfrey -18, Guapo -17, Ron Wargo -14, Eric C -14.

I think yest is going to be very disappointed not to see his name there. :-D
   12. OCF Posted: November 09, 2004 at 08:00 PM (#959426)
More electoral navel-gazing. This post ranks voters by preferences for timeline, preference for outfielders, for infielders/catchers, for first basemen, for pitchers, and for Negro League candidates.

Preference by timeline:
"Youngest" (greatest preference for the most recent players):
Guapo
Dolf Lucky
dan b
OCF
robc
"Oldest":
Sean Gilman
esteban rivera
Rick A
John Murphy
sunnyday2

Preference for outfielders:
Most:
mdb1mdb1
Rusty Priske
Brad G
DanG
Patrick W, Ron Wargo (tied)
Least:
Jim Sp
KJOK
Brian H
Howie Menckel
Daryn

Preference for infielders and catchers:
Most:
KJOK
Jim Sp
jimd
David Foss
Brian H
Least:
yest
Brad G
Philip
mdb1mdb1
Ken Fischer

Preference for first basemen:
Most:
yest
Buddha
karlmagnus
Daryn
SWW
Zero:
jimd, Michael Bass, TomH, Sean Gilman, Devin McCullen, Rick A, Brent, Dr. Chaleeko, Philip

Preference for pitchers:
Most:
Chris Cobb
Adam Schafer
karlmagnus
jhwinfrey
Thane of Bagarth
Least:
mdb1mdb1
robc
Andrew Siegel
jimd
SWW

Preference for Negro League (or Cuban) players:
Most:
Thane of Bagarth
Michael Bass
jhwinfrey
Dr. Chaleeko
Devin McCullen
Zero:
karlmagnus, Buddha, Dolf Lucky, TomH, yest, Dan Rosenheck, Rob Wood, Brian H, favre, Brad G, DanG, jimd, Andrew Siegel, mdb1mdb1

--
Chris J. hasn't voted in either of the last two elections. What's up with that?
   13. Guapo Posted: November 09, 2004 at 08:24 PM (#959463)
Preference by timeline:
"Youngest" (greatest preference for the most recent players):
Guapo


This is simply my way of acknowledging what a fantastic job the electorate did before I joined the project. ;-)
   14. Buddha Posted: November 09, 2004 at 09:22 PM (#959598)
I love me some first baseman.
   15. DavidFoss Posted: November 09, 2004 at 09:29 PM (#959613)
Chris J. hasn't voted in either of the last two elections. What's up with that?

I noticed that too. Strange thing is that he's around and posting good stuff! Just no ballot.
   16. PhillyBooster Posted: November 09, 2004 at 09:45 PM (#959661)
I have a ballot with Welch, Mendez, Griffith, Redding, Willis, and Cicotte on it, and I don't make the "pitcher friendly" list?
   17. OCF Posted: November 09, 2004 at 09:54 PM (#959682)
I have a ballot with Welch, Mendez, Griffith, Redding, Willis, and Cicotte on it, and I don't make the "pitcher friendly" list?

76 total points for pitchers puts you 11th on that list. Chris Cobb had 100 points for pitchers.
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: November 09, 2004 at 09:58 PM (#959690)
I've been accused of using a reverse timeline, whatever that is. But never been accused of favoring more recent players. Wow!
   19. sunnyday2 Posted: November 09, 2004 at 10:08 PM (#959707)
Here is my most interesting cluster of players.

3. Carey
16. Roush
17. Leach
18. Bresnahan
22. Doyle
29. Burns
38. Cravath
41. Bancroft

All are members of the weaker sex, er, league, all peaked during the deadball era. We oughta be able to get these guys right, and I no more claim to have them right than anybody else. But I don't think WE have them right at all.

Carey that much better than everybody else??? Bancroft last among this cohort? To me, Bancroft and Carey are very comparable. Also I think we are very very hard on IFers.

I also think Negro Leaguers are generally underrated as well as pitchers generally underrated.

If the best players (by consensus) in these underrated categories are indeed Jennings, Redding and Waddell, I would urge everyone to take a look at these three guys. Or if you don't like those particular guys, #2 in each category this year may very well be Sewell, Winters and Faber/Rixey. All of these seven players will be on or very very close to my 1939 ballot.
   20. sunnyday2 Posted: November 09, 2004 at 10:22 PM (#959728)
So with that as commentary, here's a prelim.

1. Jennings
2. Bond
3. Pike--yes the pioneers had the opportunity to accumulate a lot of value because of the small pool (low replacement) plus unrealistic extrapolations to 154 or 162 games. I do normalize the seasons but only to WARPs formula, which doesn't add a whole lot, and these guys still had huge value, huge pennant impact. For Bond, this is also after reducing his value by 50 percent and giving it to his fielders. Of course I'm a peak/prime voter.

4. Sisler--best of the 20th century backlog. If his peak was, say, 10 percent below Joe Jackson, well, even his rather sorry decline was better than what the Shoeless one did after 1920. If Jackson, then Sisler.

5. C. Jones--see Jennings-Bond-Pike.

6. Waddell--see post #19.

7. Carey--even adjusting some IF and P upwards, I still gotta love his defense and base-running. A unique talent.

8. Redding
9. Sewell
10. Williamson
11. Childs
12. Browning
13. Mendez
14. Faber
15. Rixey
16. Winters
17. Doyle
18. Bancroft--see post #19

19. Roush
20. Leach
21-25. Monroe, McCormick, Duffy, Griffith, Bresnahan.
26-30. Dunlap, Veach, Poles, D. Moore, Van Haltren.
31-35. C. Smith (love that peak!), Joss, Tiernan, Chance, Cicotte.
36-40. Taylor, Maranville, Willis, Burns (the good one), Ryan
41-50. Cooper, Schang, Beckley, Welch, Whitney, Shocker, Mullane, Mays, Schalk, Marcelle.

I don't seriously believe that the last few names are not really in the top 50, it's just that they were in a 50 man consideration set based in part on HoM voting and positional balance. I really wanted to rank more pitchers more highly but with some of these guys I just couldn't do it. OTOH, I may be underrating the more unique talents like Maranville and Marcelle. I'm pretty sure I'm not underrating Schang though he too is a unique talent.

In any event, my ballot will come from among the top 19 above. Have to get a better fix on Faber, Rixey and Winters, basically. Faber and Rixey do look like the best of the 20th century pitchers other than Rube and Winters does look very comparable to Mendez and Redding, but I think, for now, below.
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: November 09, 2004 at 10:25 PM (#959733)
PS. A few weeks ago I also posited that Bancroft was better than Sewell. Obviously I've decided that wasn't right, but they should be much much closer. That and the three new pitchers are what I'll be workin' on.
   22. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2004 at 10:28 PM (#959741)
I've been accused of using a reverse timeline, whatever that is. But never been accused of favoring more recent players. Wow!

"Oldest":
Sean Gilman
esteban rivera
Rick A
John Murphy
sunnyday2


What was that again, Marc? You're still in good standing with the anti-timeliners. :-)
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: November 09, 2004 at 10:32 PM (#959749)
And all on the wrong thread, to boot.
   24. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2004 at 10:37 PM (#959756)
LOL
   25. Jeff M Posted: November 10, 2004 at 05:01 AM (#960017)
How many total ballots? 49?
   26. yest Posted: November 10, 2004 at 05:42 AM (#960053)
I think yest is going to be very disappointed not to see his name there. :-D
John you'll get a even bigger suprise on my next ballot
   27. DavidFoss Posted: November 10, 2004 at 05:50 AM (#960063)
How many total ballots? 49?

Looks like 53.
   28. Jeff M Posted: November 10, 2004 at 03:42 PM (#960485)
This post ranks voters by preferences for timeline, preference for outfielders, for infielders/catchers, for first basemen, for pitchers, and for Negro League candidates.

I did a quick count and found 41* different voter names on OCF's preferences list. If there were 53 ballots cast, there were 12* voters (including me and PhillyBooster -- not sure who else) who made none of the preferences lists.

Does that mean the omitted 12 have the most balanced ballots? :)

*Numbers are approximate. I just eyeballed it.
   29. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 10, 2004 at 03:56 PM (#960506)
Looks like 53.

Correct.

John you'll get a even bigger suprise on my next ballot

Looking forward to viewing your next ballot, yest. :-)

Does that mean the omitted 12 have the most balanced ballots? :)

No, it means that the omitted 12 are gutless conformists. :-)
   30. PhillyBooster Posted: November 10, 2004 at 03:59 PM (#960512)
I think I would be on the top of a "special pleadings" list, that for most credit included that doesn't show up on a major league stat line. That includes players who weren't in the major leagues at all (Negro Leaguers) or for part of their career (Cravath, Luque), players who need extra "catcher credit" added (Bresnahan) or have had too much credit taken away by being "adjusted" down from extreme highs to out of contention. (Pike in the NA, Browning in the AA, Welch in the 1880s).

At least 10 out of the 15 names on my ballot MIGHT have been the best ever, if we could properly consider all of the factors. They might also reasonably be the 50th best of their era. I prefer to take chances on players who might have been the best, rather than on players who I know for sure were only no better than third or fourth best -- but certainly no worse than fifth.
   31. PhillyBooster Posted: November 10, 2004 at 04:04 PM (#960520)
No, it means that the omitted 12 are gutless conformists. :-)

Or is it rather that your limited methods cannot grasp the depths of my non-conformity!

What you fail to consider is that even when I vote for a consensus top candidate, I am doing so for completely different reasons!
   32. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 10, 2004 at 04:23 PM (#960538)
Or is it rather that your limited methods cannot grasp the depths of my non-conformity!

What you fail to consider is that even when I vote for a consensus top candidate, I am doing so for completely different reasons!


Okay, now you have made my head hurt. :-)
   33. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 10, 2004 at 05:50 PM (#960663)
Or is it rather that your limited methods cannot grasp the depths of my non-conformity!

What you fail to consider is that even when I vote for a consensus top candidate, I am doing so for completely different reasons!


I just saw What the Bleep Do We Know?, and, Phillybooster, this somehow sounds like some of the scientists in the film explaning both Quantam Mechanics and God. Which is to say--well said.
   34. favre Posted: November 10, 2004 at 08:49 PM (#960931)
"No, it means that the omitted 12 are gutless conformists. :-)"


I refuse to be a gutless conformist unless everyone else is one.
   35. DavidFoss Posted: November 10, 2004 at 08:55 PM (#960943)
I refuse to be a gutless conformist unless everyone else is one.

I wasn't sure if I was going to chime in on this. But since favre broke the ice, I will.

I agree.
   36. Jeff M Posted: November 11, 2004 at 06:49 PM (#962034)
In light of the foregoing discussion, I've completely revised my ballot. I plan to submit the HoM's first-ever all-catcher ballot.

I'll do whatever it takes to get on one of these special lists. :)

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