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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, January 03, 2005

1942 Ballot

Now that the holidays are over, let’s get back to business!

Bill Terry  is the big newbie this “year.” Will Firpo Marberry be deemed ballot worthy by anyone?

Top returnees: Dazzy Vance (looking good!), Eppa Rixey Joe Sewell, Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings, Tommy Leach, George Sisler and Jake Beckley.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 03, 2005 at 04:42 AM | 103 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 03, 2005 at 03:50 PM (#1052713)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (3): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. I have him pegged at his position(s) multiple times as the best for many seasons among white and black players.

2) Cupid Childs-2B (4): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

3) Charley Jones-LF/CF (5): Like York below, he was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

4) Vic Willis-P (6): Why does this man receive such little respect? Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

5) Tom York-LF (7): I know some here looking at his OPS+ must be saying to themselves "Murph has him over guys like Carey or Roush?!?" Fair question, but, IMO, York was a more dominating player at his position than those two during their time. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today) deserves a ballot spot.Best leftfielder of the 1870's. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).

6) Burleigh Grimes (8): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

7) Pie Traynor-3B (9): Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

8) Jake Beckley-1B (10): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

9) Mickey Welch-P (11): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

10) Rube Waddell-P (12): If he had been a little more serious and quit the horse playing... Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.

11) Eppa Rixey-P (13): Before Spahn, he was the winningest lefty in the NL. Comparable to Faber, except Red had a better peak..

12) Ed Konetchy-1B (14): Best first baseman of the Deadball Era, IMO. The uber-stat systems don't measure first base well, so Konetchy is hurt by that. Best major league first baseman for 1910, 1911 and 1916 (very close in 1909 and 1912). Best NL first baseman for 1909, 1912 and 1919.

13) George Van Haltren-CF/P (15): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

14) Dazzy Vance-P (n/e): The Dazzler! What a weird, but wonderful career. If he only had those bone chips removed years earlier… Best major league pitcher for 1924 and 1928. Best NL pitcher for 1930.

15) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (n/e): It has been a while since we last saw Duffy on my ballot. "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league rightfielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.



Sewell, Jennings, Griffith, Leach and Sisler are admirable players who just miss in my system.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: January 03, 2005 at 04:17 PM (#1052770)
Thank God Christmas is over!

Terry between Wilson and Rice, other newbies don’t look anything special. Dull year – 1943 will be more difficult.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3) Jake Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch but above Torriente, I think. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) By a significant margin the best pitcher on the current ballot, much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

7. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9) Sam Leever. 194-100 is more career than 1720 hits, so Leever goes above Childs. That and an ERA+ of 123 also get him above Van Haltren and Ryan, there being no outfielder dearth. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Much better ERA+ than Tannehill, and W/L pct close to record territory, MUCH better than the 1920s glut. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

8. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: January 03, 2005 at 04:19 PM (#1052778)
9. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B, and I’ve been undervaluing him, significantly.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

11. (N/A-7-13) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 Downgrade a bit because of short career and Hornsby is a LOT better (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

12. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above where Coveleski was, and above Faber/Rixey.

13. (N/A) Bill Terry. Looks to me the mathematical midpoint of Hack Wilson and Sam Rice, so that’s where I’ve put him – slightly short career, but good quality though no Hack. 2193 hits OPS+ 136, TB+BB/PA .532, TB+BB/Outs .858.

14. (N/A-11-12-15) Joe Sewell 2226 hits, TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .721, so not sure why OPS+ as low as 109. You could argue he’s better than Schang and Childs, you can’t argue he’s worse than Groh, especially as he was mainly a SS.

15. (N/A-14-N/A) Sam Rice 2987 hits, but OPS+ only 112 TB+BB/PA.455, TB+BB/Outs .702, so not as good a hitter as Sewell on raw data.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

18. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

19. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes. ERA+ nothing special at 107, but 270-212 is the best on the ballot apart from Welch, and he hit better than any pitcher on the ballot apart from Mays. Faber through Rixey all very close.

20. (N/A) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115, not quite as good as Willis, even though huge 4,494 IP. Stuffed this year by where end of ballot falls, will presumably get lucky in the future.

21. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

22. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134 and moves up owing to pitcher dearth, although his unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

23. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak, and by comparison with rather anonymous 20s players on ballot.

24. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike. Lower than Pike because not a huge pre-’71 career.
25. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
26. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
27. John Beckwith.
28. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
29. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
30. Jack Quinn ERA+ of 114, and 247-218, not as good as Willis, Faber or Rixey.
31. Deacon McGuire
32. Tony Mullane
33. Pye Traynor
34. Jim McCormick
35. Dick Redding
36. Joe Judge
37. Edd Roush
38. Spotswood Poles.
39. Larry Doyle
40. Roger Bresnahan.
41. Harry Hooper.
42. Dazzy Vance Don't like his W/L record, and not particularly impressed by strikeouts. Not nearly as good as Wes Ferrell.
43. Jules Thomas.
44. Wilbur Cooper
45. Bruce Petway.
46. Jack Clements
47. Bill Monroe
48. Jose Mendez
49. Herb Pennock
50. Chief Bender
51. Ed Konetchy
52. Jesse Tannehill
53. Bobby Veach
54. Lave Cross
55. Tommy Leach. Inferior to Childs, even if he’d played 3B his whole career, which he didn’t. Dropped him 1, as overall, Cross was better, too.
56. Tom York
   4. TomH Posted: January 03, 2005 at 04:20 PM (#1052782)
1942 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

This year’s ballot includes about 21% pitchers (altho they get the 2 elect-me slots), 44% catcher/infielders, and 35% OF/1B.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Clark Griffith (3) [6]
Vastly underrated by conventional stats.
2-Dazzy Vance (4) [3]
As awesome as he was in the 1920s, think about how many swing-and-a-misses he would generate in today’s game. Short career only reason he isn’t a shoo-in.

“Hall of very good” starts right about here…
3-George Van Haltren (5) [11]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.
4-John McGraw (6) [35]
I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP isn’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us.
5-Joe Sewell (7) [5]
He may not have any one stat that defines him, but overall he won lots of ballgames for his team. Not quite Alan Trammell, but beats Dave Concepcion.
6-Larry Doyle (9) [22]
A 2Bman with such a high OWP deserves attention.
7-Rube Waddell (10) [12]
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit. We’ve already elected 8 pitchers from his prime – that nudges him down a bit. But his big KOs would have made him a bigger stud in most other eras, and that bumps him back up.
8-Cupid Childs (11) [16]
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay too. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.
9-John Beckwith (12) [13]
Right now he looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew, with a shorter career and some baggage.
10-Roger Bresnahan (13) [21]
Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
11-Tommy Leach (8) [8]
As a third baseman he’s high on my ballot. As an OFer he’s off. He lands here. Looks really similar to Pie Traynor.
12-Bill Terry { new }
Hitter. Almost as good as Sisler’s prime, for much longer. Better player than Konetchy or Beckley. Way more career than Chance. Has to land on my ballot, even being conservative in his first appearance.
13-Pie Traynor (off) [29]
Not as good as Heinie Groh. Fine player.
14-Frank Chance (14) [39]
He lacks the big seasons if you use WARP or WS, since those measure rely on playing time to accumulate much value. But by RCAP in a run-starved environment, and taking into account his team’s performance, his peak, prime and career are all very fine. Small bonus because I assess that he would have played a few more games if he weren’t managing. Another bonus for playing 1/7th of his career as a catcher. Yet another small bonus for his fine play in 4 World Series. And his rep was real good too. Look deeply, and you’ll find a gem.
15-Jake Beckley (off) [10]
Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM tho.

Close but no cigar:
George Sisler (off) [9]
I feel bad putting three 1Bmen on this ballot and no George, but…..if only his severe injury had been even one or two years later :(
Eppa Rixey (off) [4]
115 ERA+ , in front of a good defensive team in the weaker league. Massive amount of career innings doesn’t quite do it.
Mickey Welch (15) [17]
Gets bumped this week. Yes, he won 300 games, but his career doesn’t look much different than Rixey’s, who is also on my ballot bubble.
Hughie Jennings (off) [7]
Great for 5 years. If we had a PEAK Hall of Merit, Hughie would be a shoo-in.
Wally Schang (off) [25]
Another guy begging for a bigger ballot.

Others hanging nearby: Ed Roush, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Bobby Veach, Bill Monroe, Urban Shocker, D Redding, J Mendez, H Duffy, C Jones, J Ryan, S Rice
   5. PhillyBooster Posted: January 03, 2005 at 06:02 PM (#1053010)
1. Jake Beckley (3) -- I guess Jake and I will be hanging around together for a lot longer than I originally thought.

2. Eppa Rixey (4) -- Pitcher replacement is lower than you think it is. Also, unlike hitter replacement, you can't really replace it with one guy. We're all pretty good at spouting off a list of replacement level position players who turned in 600 PA at their position. But how many replacement level pitchers can you name who threw 160-200 innings in their replacement level season? Part of being replacement level is that your innings necessarily drop. Besides being lower than hitters' replacment, a pitcher that has to be replaced with replacement-level talent essentially has to be replaced with 2 or 3 or 4 different pitchers. That's a hidden "cost" that doesn't get tallied when considering high IP, "very good" pitchers like Rixey.

3. Jose Mendez (5) -- Best of the Cuban pitchers, really of all time. Cuba has provided some of the best baseball talent of all time. Will the HoM be void of Cuban pitchers (Dihigo doesn't count)? If you don't like Mendez or Luque, you're probably does to Luis Tiant and Mike Cuellar as the next two reasonable candidates. I don't see either of them as better than Mendez or Luque. If your system doesn't include voting in any Cuban pitchers, maybe that suggests a flaw with your system?

4. Gavy Cravath (7) -- Full credit for the nearly-half of his career that is buried in old PCL and AA stat-books. Even conservative estimages put him above 300 win shares -- probably over 350. He was among the best deadball sluggers ever.

5. Dolf Luque (8) -- See Mendez comment. Also, Cravath comment. It took the World War player dearth for Luque to finally get a solid shot at the majors, despite numerous seasons of top-rate pitching at a young age in Cuba, the Negro Leagues, and the top white minors. He doesn't get credit for more than he did, but he does get to fill out the left side of his bell curve a little. Those Cuban league games counted too, and I think they have to be considered in creating the "big picture".

6. Mickey Welch (6) Am I getting bored, or just less impressed with his numbers to 400th time I've looked at them? I don't know. In any case, I'm less inspired about pushing his candidacy than I have been in previous years, and his "subjective points" ranking is starting to slide a little.

7. Roger Bresnahan (9) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

8. Pete Browning (10) -- Though experiment. What statistics would you require a player to have in order to make your ballot, if he peaked in the AA from 1882 to 1885? Is it possible for any mortal to attain those levels, and survive the league adjustment?

9. Dazzy Vance (11) -- Not crazy about him. I want a lot more from my short-career pitchers (see Rixey comment), but if we're going with peak, I like his over Waddell's. I was convinced by other comments to move him above Carl Mays (whom I had ranked 15, and now slips to 17 this year).

10. Bill Terry (n/e) -- No Beckley, but in this weak ballot year he doesn't have to be.

11. Bill Monroe (12) -- still one of the best
12. Clark Griffith (13) -- The HoM needs more PITCHERS.
13. Dick Redding (14) -- Like these guys.
14. Tommy Leach (15) -- My #2 "career" candidate after Beckley.
15. Vic Willis (off) -- #44 all-time in wins. Solid peak. 4000 innings (#39 all-time) must put him in the top 50 pitchers all-time. Vic needs more love.
   6. Jim Sp Posted: January 03, 2005 at 07:02 PM (#1053248)
Terry debuts at #14, Travis Jackson and Babe Herman #31 and #32. Lindstrom had a nice career, but so did Willie Kamm and he’s not close either.

1)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
2)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. Stands out from the extreme lack of catching candidates recently.
3)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
4)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. I might regret this, but he made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
5)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
6)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
7)Vance--Rixey or Vance? Today I’m in a career mood I guess.
8)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
9)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
10)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
11)Bancroft--Adjusted him up…
12)Bresnahan--Best hitting year was as a CF, not a C, so he’s not quite as impressive as I thought at first glance.
13)Griffith—Comp is Marichal, plus he could hit.
14)Terry--Overrated in general, but still pretty good.
15)Joss—Comp is Koufax…a terrible hitter.

Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Leach--Great fielder at both 3B and CF. Historically a unique player, if only he hit a little better. Or had stayed at 3B.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
   7. TomH Posted: January 03, 2005 at 07:04 PM (#1053260)
"Thought experiment. What statistics would you require a player to have in order to make your ballot, if he peaked in the AA from 1882 to 1885?"
--
Good way to frame the question, PB. As a Browning non-voter, I answer thusly:

Pete Browning led his league in slugging one time. He finished second one time. While he is the best eligible hitter not Merited to date, I would expect that for a guy with a shortish career (11+ years) and not much defense to dominate (even) more than he did form eto bump him on to my ballot. Hack Wilson might be the next best hitter, who also has monster years, but we're not gonna vote him in, either.

Counter thought experiment: John Beckwith may have been as good a hitter as Pete, plus he played infield! How great would his stats have had to be in the Nergo Leagues to get him on to your ballot?
   8. TomH Posted: January 03, 2005 at 07:06 PM (#1053266)
((typo corrections))

I would expect that for a guy with a shortish career (11+ years) and not much defense to dominate (even) more than he did to bump him on to my ballot.
   9. jhwinfrey Posted: January 03, 2005 at 08:13 PM (#1053488)
"I honestly feel that it would be best for the country to keep baseball going...they ought to have a chance for recreation and for taking their minds off their work even more than before...if 300 teams use 5,000 or 6,000 players, these players are a definite recreational asset to at least 20,000,000 of their fellow citizens--and that in my judgment is thoroughly worthwhile."
--Franklin D. Roosevelt, to Kenesaw Mountain Landis, on January 15, 1942

1942 Ballot
Tommy Leach and Bill Terry are my PHoM inductees this year.

1. Jake Beckley (6,3,5,4,4,3,3,4,8,5,4,2,2,2,3,3) This may be Eagle Eye's last best chance for a while. Beckley voters unite! (1927)

2. Mickey Welch (1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,7,6,5,3,1,1,2,4) Yes, I'd still like to see another 19th century pitcher inducted. (1926)

3. Eppa Rixey (6,7,7) (1939)
4. Burleigh Grimes (5,6) Two solid pitcher who threw a lot of innings. Never the greatest pitcher of their time, but definitely meritorious. (1940)

5. Ben Taylor (11,8,8,6,4,3,4,5) Very similar to Carey and Beckley, plus he pitched a little. (1938)

6. Tommy Leach (9,7,5,7,8,8) If Heinie Groh is a HoMer, then Leach ought to be, too. (1942)

7. Bill Terry (ne) Setting all else aside, he was clearly a great hitter. (1942)

8. Carl Mays (9,10,9,7,5,6,9) A good pitcher and a great athlete. (1939)

9. Dick Redding (13,11,15,15,10)
10. Jose Mendez (4,8,13,13,11,10,8,14,14,11) These two both seem to me to be superior to Rube Foster. (1932)

11. Jim McCormick (4,8,13,13,11,10,8,14,14,11) 466 complete games. Not that bad.

12. Rabbit Maranville (10,11,13) Remarkably durable, dependable gloveman.

13. Edd Roush (8,6,11,13,14) A very good hitter with a solid career.

(13a. Bobby Wallace)

14. Vic Willis (13,12,10,10,15) Rounding out the pitchers on my ballot with another innings-eater.

15. Pie Traynor (nr) Pie debuts on my ballot this year, giving me 6 infielders.

Other newcomers:
54. Tom Zachary--ranks just below Herb Pennock.
77. Travis Jackson--below Harry Hooper.

Obligatoires:
34. Joe Sewell
35. George Sisler
41. Clark Griffith
42. Dazzy Vance
64. Hughie Jennings
These 5 players all miss my ballot for the same reason--I do not think they played long enough to help their teams to the same amount as the players ranked ahead of them.
   10. DanG Posted: January 03, 2005 at 09:53 PM (#1053872)
Welcome, Bleacher!

We normally recommend that first-time voters post a preliminary ballot on the ballot discussion page for the year. If you had done this, it could have been pointed out there that your #4 Torriente and your #10 Faber have already been elected.

Please try again.
   11. Bleacher Posted: January 03, 2005 at 09:59 PM (#1053895)
Thanks, Dan. I'm glad I had those two on my ballot!
When did they sneak by me? I thought I had read all of the induction year results.
   12. DanG Posted: January 03, 2005 at 10:06 PM (#1053926)
Faber in 1939.
Torriente in 1937.
   13. Bleacher Posted: January 03, 2005 at 10:29 PM (#1054030)
My error allowed me to do a little reconsideration. Sorry about missing those guys, but I'm glad they made it!

1942 Ballot

1. Waddell–103.6 WARP; 240 WS; 135 ERA+; 3 ERA+ titles; 6 straight K titles; 10th all-time in ERA. If he were pitching today, he’d be on medication.

2. Joss–97.7 WARP; 191 WS; 142 ERA+–Like Waddell, a career cut short–only by physical, as opposed to mental illness.

3. Beckwith–Chris Cobb’s WS analysis is convincing.

4. Welch–354 WS, 6 years over 30, 9 over 25.

5. Van Haltren–84.2 WARP; 344 WS, 121 OPS+ (more WS than Beckley and Billy Hamilton; no peak, however).

6. Beckley–318 WS, 125 OPS+, no peak.

7. McCormick–334 WS–I misread his totals before, so he gets a boost.

8. Leach–85.6 WARP; 328 WS; but only 108 OPS+.

9. Rixey–315 WS, no peak.

10. Griffith–273 WS; need another ‘90s P; 7-time 20-game winner.

11. Terry–OPS+ = 137, 278 WS–upon reflection, he was better than the OF'ers below.

12. Chance–good peak, averaged 28 WS for 6 years, 135 OPS+, caught some–a winner. I believe he’s still the franchise leader in SB's.

13. Roush–80.2 WARP; 314 WS, 126 OPS+.

14. Hooper–93.5 WARP; 321 WS, 114 OPS+; but doubt he was ever the best in his own OF.

15. Ryan–84 WARP; 316 WS, 123 OPS+–close to Hooper–lots of longevity; sat out a year or would have more WS than Hooper.

Honorable mention: Vance, Duffy, Moore, Grimes, Breshnahan, Schrang, Jennings, Williamson, Browning, Cravath.
   14. ronw Posted: January 03, 2005 at 10:36 PM (#1054056)
1942 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. All-Star candidate is roughly the top 16 pitchers and top 32 players. MVP candidate is anyone with double the WS numbers of the worst All-Star candidate in that season. I'll gladly incorporate WARP when they <u>clearly</u> tell me how they reach their numbers.)

1. John Beckwith Based on the discussions he seems to be a sure HOM player. I for one tend to think of the top Negro League teams as better than AAA. PHOM 1942.

2. George Van Haltren Only one season among top 8 players (1898). Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. One question I will explore next week: Was Van Haltren really done in 1904, or did he pull a Kid Nichols and go to the minors to participate in management/ownership? I realize he had a poor 1903 season in the majors, but I think put up decent PCL numbers for a couple of years. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

3. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters. When peak calculations are factored in, his numbers alone do not place him here, but positional adjustment does. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

4. Jimmy Ryan Had a nice peak 1888-1891. Is in danger of being overlooked for flashier candidates. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

5. Burleigh Grimes According to Win Shares, when both were starters, Grimes was better than Rixey in the same league in 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1926, 1928, 1929, 1930 and 1931. They were about equal in 1924 and 1927. Rixey was better during 1916, 1917, 1922, 1923, and 1925. Rixey also pitched a few more seasons in 1912, 1913, 1914 and 1915 prior to the start of Grimes’ career, but wasn’t anything special during those years. MVP candidate 1918, 1920. All-Star candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1930. (10 HOM seasons).

6. Eppa Rixey Consistently above average. I’m not sure why he rates so much higher than contemporary Grimes. In 1912, 1913, 1914 and 1915, Rixey was a serviceable to bad pitcher. In 1916 he was an All-Star. In 1917 he was solid. He served in 1918 and 1919. Grimes was an All-Star in 1918 and had a poor 1919. In 1920 and 1921, Grimes was significantly better than Rixey, and was probably the top pitcher in the NL. Rixey was significantly better in 1922, but was not the top NL pitcher. They were very close in 1923 and 1924, with Rixey getting a slight edge. Rixey had a significantly superior 1925. From 1926-1927 they were close, but neither was really an All-Star. In 1928 and 1929 Grimes again was a top pitcher in the NL, significantly better than Rixey. In 1930 and 1931 Grimes was a solid starter, Rixey was essentially done. From 1932-1934, both were hanging around. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1920-1925, 1927-1929, war credit 1918 (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1939.

7. Joe Sewell Looks like the best of the available major league infielders to me. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1921-1929, 1931-1933 (12 HOM seasons).

8. Tommy Leach Consistently at the top of his weaker league. MVP candidate 1908. All-Star candidate 1901-1907, 1909-1910, 1913-1914. (12 HOM seasons)

9. Dick Redding I just don’t see where to slot Negro League pitchers, but Redding seems worthy of induction some time.

10. George J. Burns Dominated a weaker league. Through the teens, generally among the top 8 players in the league. MVP candidate 1917, 1919, All-Star candidate 1913-1916, 1918, 1920-1923. (11 HOM seasons).

11. Bill Monroe Seems to have suffered because of lack of documentation.

12. Ben Taylor I like this candidate, but he doesn’t seem very spectacular.

13. Wilbur Cooper Good career candidate, with questions about league quality. Really benefited by being top of his league. Never really an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1914, 1916-1924 (10 HOM seasons)

14. Vic Willis Some questions about league quality again. MVP candidate 1899, All-Star candidate 1898, 1901-1909 (11 HOM seasons)

15. Bill Terry Slightly better than Sisler. MVP candidate 1927, 1930-32, 1934. All-Star candidate 1925, 1928-1929, 1933, 1935. (10 HOM seasons)

LAST YEAR TOP TEN

Dazzy Vance - A great deal like electee Amos Rusie, not quite Ed Walsh. MVP candidate 1924, 1928. All-Star candidate 1922-1923, 1925, 1927, 1929-1930. (8 HOM seasons)

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown, Vance or perhaps even Waddell. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)

George Sisler – A decent peak but surprisingly only one 30+ WS season. Probably deserves ballot placement in future seasons. MVP candidate 1917, 1920. All-Star candidate 1916-1922, 1925, 1927-1928. (10 HOM seasons.)

Missing from my PHOM:

Pike (with peak adjustment, makes it this year)
Coveleski (will make it some day)
Faber (may never make it, even with the peak adjustment)
Thompson (will never make it)
   15. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 03, 2005 at 11:09 PM (#1054199)
1942 Ballot

Phew, back to that familiar Glut-atious feeling… Those easy elections are just too taxing.

1. George Van Haltren
Still the best career numbers on the board; still not as weak a peak as the likes of Beckley; still worthy of induction into the HOM. The love’s still out there for him, it’s just lying dormant waiting for the right moment to spring forth from the hearts of learned baseball men….

2. Hugh Duffy
An outstanding peak
Good glove—good career—what’s left?
Four-forty be hanged

3. Spots Poles
Less peak than Duffy, less career than GVH.

4. Jose Mendez
Big peak, and enough shoulder seasons to shoulder his way past the likes of Waddell.

5. Dazzy Vance
I’m not at all certain that Vance should be ahead of Rixey, nor visa versa, but I am confident that the two of them belong close together and roughly at this point on my ballot. Where perhaps Dean/Koufax describe the opposite of Rixey, Vance represents something like equivalency. What I mean by this is that Rixey’s peak is approximately as much lower than Vance’s as Vance’s career is lower than Rixey’s. And their primes roughly intersect. So in a way two sides of the same pitching coin, whereas Dean/Koufax are more like Jennings vs. GVH. As a recovering peakster, I’m impelled to put Vance over Rixey, recognizing that his peak seasons added more at the margins to his teams’ chances to win, while also recognizing that his offensive and defensive support were poorer than Rixey’s.

6. Eppa Rixey
The anti-Dean/Koufax candidate with all kinds of career value, and a steady stream of 20 win share seasons. If Rixey were a 70s rock band, he'd be Journey: a long, successful career with lots of songs and albums that chart highly, but no #1s.

7. George "Not born in Tioga" Burns
A really nice peak/prime that petered out a little too quickly to give him the career boost he needs.

8. Edd Roush
The extra d wasn't for defense, but he did a have a productive peak, almost as good as Burns's, and a little more career value. I lean to peak, so Burns is ahead. Someone else could easily feel differently.

9. Hughie Jennings
As ever, a peak lover's dream, a career lover's nightmare. Someone in baseball history had to be the perfect demonstration of the peak/career argument, and it's him.

10. John Beckwith
Here's the man I'm really struggling with. On one hand, Chris's projections show me someone not quite as effective as Doyle who is off of my ballot. On the other hand, there's also talk about his organized-league exuent in the 1930s being, in part, driven by a want to stay in familiar surroundings. Given the instability of the era, what with the then recent foldings of the NNL, ECL, and E-WL, there was probably ample reason for him to doubt whether the NNL would continue as a profitable enterprise and, therefore, to eschew playing in it when he could make money playing near home. My hindsight on Negro Leaguers is blurriest with regard to this sort of matter, that is, what effect the loose organization of the teams and leagues had on players and teams. Anyway, the (now) long and short of it is that, I think there's more room in Beckwith's projection for upside than in Doyle's actual stat lines or in Moore's (due to the clear termination point of his career). That's why they're not here and Beckwith is.

As to the attitude stuff, I also think this is a reflection of the (then) probable lack of support systems for atheletes, especially in the Negro Leagues, which probably couldn't afford those luxuries. I don't know that Milton Bradley's all that different from John Beckwith, but he's had a support structure to keep him reigned in enough that he hasn't killed someone. Yet.

11. Tommy Leach
More career than Burns, but not enough peak to get above him.

12. Wilbur Cooper
Cooper's consistent finishes among the top pitchers in his league combined with just enough career to make him dangerous get him almost into my top ten.

13. Cupid Childs
Great OBP, nice peak/prime, not enough career value. He’s just this side of Bill Terry, and the two are extraordinarily close in 3/5 peak. Terry’s got a little more prime and career, however. So why am I putting Childs ahead? An interesting question to ask would be was 2B in Childs’s day more difficult than 1B in Terry’s day? As a modern person, I have difficulty imagining any scenario in which a 2B from any period would be less valuable defensively than a 1B from the post-deadball era. Were I voting on a second-base contemporary of Terry, I think I might vote for the second baseman ahead of him without really giving it too much thought. However, what tripped me up was some foggy notion that the double play didn’t rise to prominence as a defensive weapon until the decade after Childs’s career. A modicum of research didn’t seem to support that, so I couldn’t justify ranking Terry over Childs when some teams were turning 80 twinkillings a year.

14. Bill Terry
(see Childs).


15. Bill Monroe
Decent peak, but a good, long career. I have that nagging feeling he’s better than this, but I can’t prove it…. And Karlmagnus would never believe me anyway! ; )



tying up the l/n-oose ends:

New fellows

Zachary, Jackson, Lindstrom, Herman? Pass. Marbury’s more complicated, but in a word, I don’t know what in god’s name to do with relievers.
Previous top dawgs
Sewell: The best in a weak era for SS. I'm not convinced by his soft peak and low career WS.

Clark Griffith: Just off the end of the ballot.

Sisler: Not enough peak to overcome modest career totals (esp for a 1B) and half a career of being Hal Morris. Is it the Mattingly Complex or does Donald Arthur suffer from the Sislerian Syndrome?

Beckley: Sorry Karlmagnus, I just can't bring myself to vote for "The Who Never Peaked." ; )

Waddell: ERA+ is easier to rack up, mathematically, in a lower run environment. Between that and all those unearned runs, I'm not convinced Rube was as good as the WS say.
   16. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 03, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1054270)
Welcome, Bleacher! Your ballot passes muster as far as I am concerned. I hope you enjoy yourself as a member of this project.

BTW, I deleted your first ballot so it doesn't confuse the people (like me :-) tabulating the votes.
   17. PhillyBooster Posted: January 03, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1054312)
Pete Browning led his league in slugging one time. He finished second one time. While he is the best eligible hitter not Merited to date, I would expect that for a guy with a shortish career (11+ years) and not much defense to dominate (even) more than he did form eto bump him on to my ballot. Hack Wilson might be the next best hitter, who also has monster years, but we're not gonna vote him in, either.

He also led his league in OPS twice, was second twice, had a third, a fourth, and fifth, and two sixths. I don't impart any mystical power to "#1". A guy is almost identically valuable coming in #1 in a statistic as he is when he comes in second to Quirky McFlukeyear or third to Quirky and a HoMer.

He was winning the marathon, even though he was losing each leg to series of sprinters.
   18. Sean Gilman Posted: January 04, 2005 at 01:38 AM (#1054491)
1942

1. Pete Browning (3)--Best of a weak ballot. AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

2. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Hughie Jennings (5)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

4. Cupid Childs (6)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .(1938)

5. Tommy Leach (9)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. . .Leapfrogs over the pitchers this week for reasons of peak and pennants added.

6. Clark Griffith (7)--About as close to Covaleski as can be.

7. Dick Redding (8)--Peak not quite long enough to put him ahead of the other second-tier HOM-probable pitchers. A good comp for Griffith, I think.

8. Larry Doyle (10)--Another underrated infielder. . .

9. Bill Terry (-)-- WARP prfers him to Doyle, win shares (and pennants added) prefers Doyle.

10 Joe Sewell (11)--In danger of either being elected or becoming underrated.

11. George Sisler (24)-- Comparison with Terry convinces me I was underrating him.

12. Ed Williamson (12)--Don’t know that my opinion of any candidate has fluctuated more over the last 40 years.

13. Dave Bancroft (13)--Not quite Sewell, but very close.

14. Roger Bresnahan (14)--Great rate stats, but he just didn’t play enough to generate the value of the higher ups on the ballot.

15. John Beckwith (15)--Putting him at the end of the infield glut. There really isn’t much difference between #12 and #25 on my ballot.

16. Jose Mendez (16)
17. Carl Mays (17)
18. Dazzy Vance (27)
19. Eppa Rixey (18)
20. Hugh Duffy (19)
21. George Van Haltren (20)
22. Edd Roush (21)
23. Jimmy Ryan (22)
24. Jake Beckley (23)
25. Bobby Veach (25)
   19. OCF Posted: January 04, 2005 at 02:03 AM (#1054561)
1942 ballot.
1. George Van Haltren (5, 3, 1, 2, 3) As "peakless" careers go, he's got substantially more offensive peak than the likes of Beckley or Hooper. Not much pitching value (and it was a whole lot easier to be a pitcher-hitter before 1893 than after), but what little pitching there is serves as a tiebreaker among similar candidates.
2. Dazzy Vance (----, 4)) I'm probably overrating what is, after all, a too-brief career. But there's really no one else remotely like him.
3. Joe Sewell (---, 3, 5, 5) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. Come to think of it, I could say that about a lot of people, including Childs.
4. Larry Doyle (3, 1, 4, 4, 6) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
5. John Beckwith (---, 5, 7) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit. Beckwith had an environment more favorable to a hitter, and not all of the instabilities of his career were out of his own control.
6. Bill Terry (new) Overrated by history, but that's no reason for us to underrate him. The standard for first basemen is not Connor, Foxx, or Bagwell, so the fact that Terry doesn't belong with that group isn't the issue. We're comparing him to Beckley, Chance, and Sisler - and I have him ahead of all three of them.
7. Eppa Rixey (--, 5, 6, 8) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
8. Jake Beckley (13, 13, 6, 7, 9) Not much peak, long career.
9. Cupid Childs (---, 7, 8, 11) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
10. Hugh Duffy (8, 6, 9, 9, 12) 36th year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.
11. Edd Roush (10, 8, 10, 10, 13) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
12. George Sisler (15, 15, 11, 11, 14) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
13. Pie Traynor (----, 10) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy. But I think I started him too high.
14. Rube Waddell (11, 11, 9, 12, 12, 15) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
15. Jose Mendez (15, 10, 13, 13, 16) Others have made his case better than I could, but he's right there.
16. Frank Chance (12, 17, 14, 14, 17) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time. Still has a chance to get back to my ballot.
17. Roger Bresnahan (12, 12, 15, 15, 18) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
18. Jimmy Ryan (7, 5, 16, 16, 19) Not beyond reconsideration.
19. Dick Redding (23, 11, 17, 17, 20)
20. Hugh Jennings (-, 25, 18, 19, 21) All he's got is 5 years.
21. Wally Schang (14, 14, 19, 20, 22) A much better hitter than most catchers. Not the hitter Bresnahan is, but closer to being a pure catcher.
22. Sam Rice (---, 21, 23) Comparable to Hooper; either he could rank lower or Hooper higher.
23. Gavy Cravath (16, 16, 20, 22, 24) A big offensive peak. Yes, he took unique advantage of his park, but real wins resulted from that. Seriously lacking in bulk unless you also consider his work in Minneapolis.
24. Rabbit Maranville (--, 21, 23, 25) I know he wasn't much of an offensive player, but 2500 game middle infield careers are a distinct rarity.
25. Tommy Leach (19, 18, 22, 24, -) Would be higher if he were purely an infielder.

The cluster of players fighting to get back up to the #25 spot include Luque, Lindstrom, Poles, Taylor, Willis, Welch, Burns, Griffith, and Hack Wilson.
Griffith languishes down here largely because he's not that high on career IP for his times.
Tom Zachary: Comparable to Hooks Dauss and Rube Marquard
Travis Jackson: A good player, but no reason to put him ahead of Bancroft, and I don't have Bancroft on the ballot.
Firpo Marberry: A great story, but ultimately there just wasn't enough there.
Fred Lindstrom: Probably closer to being Traynor than I'm giving him credit for - but he's still back there in the line. Ed Williamson is out there somewhere as well.
Buzz Arlett: I haven't really sorted out what I think of his case yet.
   20. jimd Posted: January 04, 2005 at 02:09 AM (#1054571)
He was winning the marathon, even though he was losing each leg to series of sprinters.

This metaphor has problems, given Browning's short career, and his troubles staying in the lineup in those few seasons (he missed an average of 15% of those 9 top-10 OPS+ seasons). Less spectacular but durable players would accumulate more value while Browning was out of the lineup.

He also led his league in OPS twice, was second twice, had a third, a fourth, and fifth, and two sixths.

Factoring in playing time and defense, Win Shares would rank those same nine seasons as league leader twice, plus a second tie, fourth, fifth tie, sixth tie, and three shortened seasons ranking 17, 20, 22 (all ties). WARP ranks him in baseball's top-32 (includes pitchers) 4 times (82,85,87,90); it's not enough.
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: January 04, 2005 at 03:52 AM (#1054808)
1942 ballot

1. Bill Terry (new, PHoM 1942)--My PHoM has four extra IF and the HoM has four extra corner OF. But I still like it when a new best peak/prime hitter becomes available.

2. Hughie Jennings (3 last year-1-1, PHoM 1927)--still the best overall peak available for a position player.

3. George Sisler (4-5-3, PHoM 1938)--once overrated, now underrated.

4. Rube Waddell (5-10-6, PHoM 1932)--ERA+ 135 in almost 3000 IP. No eligible pitcher tops him on both.

5. Dobie Moore (9-14-14, PHoM 1942)--played as long as Joe Sewell. Does anybody think he wasn't better at his peak? (And just for the record, if not Moore for PHoM, the next choice is probably Harry Stovey over Pie Traynor for me.)

6. Ed Williamson (8-12-7, PHoM 1924)--comp is Jimmy Collins. Twice (maybe 3X) the player Freddie Lindstrom was.

7. Pie Traynor (10-x)--not the kind of peak I usually prefer, but a nice long consistent prime at a defensive position that is difficult enough.

8. Joe Sewell (12-8-13). The essence of borderline--not a long career, not a high peak, but still somehow in contention.

9. Addie Joss (13-x). ERA+ 142, but short career in years and spotty in IP.

10. Dazzy Vance (6-x)--Ks are just outs but ERA+!

11. Tommy Bond (x-4-2, PHoM 1929)--dropped in my first recent pitcher re-consider, then recovered somewhat when I added in a couple other measures.

12. Charley Jones (11-9-5, PHoM 1921)--great hitter, this is even w/o blacklist bonus.

13. John Beckwith (14-15-x)--moving up!

14. Cupid Childs (x-x-10, PHoM 1925)
15. Larry Doyle (x-11-x)----interchangeable with one another and Monroe, maybe even Dunlap.

Dropped out--Rixey (7) and Griffith (15) as I continued my pitcher re-con.

16-20. Roush, Cicotte, Bancroft, Rixey, Monroe.
21-25. McCormick, Browning, H. Wilson, Griffith, Redding.
26-30. Welch, Dunlap, Mendez, Duffy, Leach.
31-40. Van Haltren, Veach, Willis, Beckley, Poles, Tinker, S. White, Tiernan, Taylor, Evers.
   22. Jeff M Posted: January 04, 2005 at 04:37 AM (#1054944)
I may have missed it, but has there been any discussion of Chaney White and Clint Thomas?

"Hawk" Thomas' write-up in Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia is impressive...stole a bunch of bases, had 20+ home run power, hit consistently over .300 (several times well over .300) and appears to have been one of the best defensive outfielders (though it isn't clear exactly which outfield position he should be identified with). He hit in the middle of the lineup on Pop Lloyd's all-star team. He was called the "black Joe Dimaggio" (I know, I know...). He missed two years to military service at the front end of his career. I9 has no stats.

Chaney "Reindeer" White also gets a good write-up. Apparently he was incredibly fast (take note Lip Pike fans), but a bit of a dirty player in the Ty Cobb sense. He also consistently hit above .320 (with a couple of off years at .274 and .295). He appears to have been the regular #3 in the lineup wherever he played. He had a weak arm, but great range in the outfield. Pop Lloyd selected him as the left fielder on his all-time team in 1953 (for a nat'l magazine poll).

Anyway, I didn't see either of them mentioned in the 1942 ballot discussion, and they aren't making anyone's top 50 so far on the ballot. In fact, they aren't even being mentioned in the "other newly eligible" categories on the ballot.

Anyone know more about these guys? Maybe they are only in the Hall of the Very Good, but seems like we ought to discuss them. They've got to be at least as good as Van Haltren, since they hit about as well, played about as long and were better defensively.
   23. Jeff M Posted: January 04, 2005 at 04:55 AM (#1055004)
Gotta vote uncharacteristically early b/c I'll be out the rest of the week.

1942 Ballot

1. Vance, Dazzy -- Solid in both WS and WARP1… better on peak than career (but career looks nice in WARP1). Had some fantastic seasons and really only one bad one (1932). Consistent winner, despite what appears to be weak defense and run support.

2. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at roughly 349 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is one hell of a number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

3. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

4. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

5. Terry, Bill – Didn’t really start playing until he was 27, so his career was not as long as some others. But earning nearly 300 adjWS after the age of 27 ain’t too shabby. He apparently could pick it at 1b, too. When he retired, he ran car dealerships in my hometown (Jacksonville, Fla.) and was generally known as an irascible fellow. My guess is he was not a popular teammate.

6. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

7. Waddell, Rube – I’ve been holding him behind Griffith because his win totals are less impressive, but RSI gives some of the reason why, so I’ve moved Waddell ahead rather than letting him float at the end of my ballot.

8. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM.

9. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor in the outfield.

10. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

11. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

12. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good normalized counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

13. Rice, Sam – Mostly career, with little peak, and WS likes him much better than WARP. Really a one-dimensional hitter, but he was very good in that dimension. I considered putting either of the Negro Leaguers Chaney White or Clint Thomas here, but I am not quite confident enough about them to place them on the ballot.

14. Bresnahan, Roger -- In my system he was quite a bit better as a hitter than Charlie Bennett, though certainly not as good defensively (and not a full-time catcher). If you stack Bresnahan's WS and WARP1 numbers against the catchers actually elected to the HoF, he looks very solid. But then again, he wasn’t a full-time catcher.

15. Joss, Addie – No doubt would be up the list if he had not been stricken, but those are the breaks.

Required Disclosures:

Sewell, Joe – He’s #19 in my system, essentially tied with Larry Doyle and Tommy Leach, and just slightly ahead of Jake Beckley. A very solid player but not spectacular enough to crack the ballot for now.

Jennings, Hughie -- He’s #38 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan (really behind Spalding) and ahead of Rabbit Maranville. I’ve never been comfortable enough with his career length to place him highly.

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #27 in my system, behind Mickey Welch and ahead of Spotswood Poles. I’ve got to side with the WARP analysis on this one…at 275 IP per year, he’d give you a WARP of about 4.2. I like steady, but I need some brilliance too. He moved up a lot from my prior ranking because of RSI.

Beckley, Jake – All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in grey ink and Keltner tests. He’s #22 in my system, behind Joe Sewell (really Wallace) and ahead of Vic Willis.

Leach, Tommy – He’s #19 in my system, tied with Joe Sewell and Larry Doyle. He has made my ballot from time to time.
   24. Ardo Posted: January 04, 2005 at 06:52 AM (#1055264)
1 (3) George Sisler. How many position players on this ballot have a 124 ERA+ in 111 innings of pitching? Remember, he once beat Ruth in a 1-0 shutout.

A note on pitching by position players: I rank Sisler #1 because he could have become an outstanding ML pitcher given the chance (like Wes Ferrell, only ten years earlier!)
   25. Ardo Posted: January 04, 2005 at 07:26 AM (#1055308)
Continued... Sisler:

Connie Mack chose Sisler ahead of Gehrig as the 1B for the 1950 mid-century team. For Mack's choice to make any sense, the young Sisler's defense and pitching had to balance Gehrig's stupendous hitting to some degree.

Van Haltren and Ryan, who have dropped, pitched a) pre-1893 and b) at the league average ERA+. Sisler deserves far more pitching credit than either Ryan or VH.

2 (4) Dazzy Vance. See TomH's post, #34 in the Dazzy Vance thread. Overwhelming power pitcher with bad run support.

3 (new) Bill Terry. A stronger version of Don Mattingly, with a higher OPS+ (136 to Don's 127) in a similar-length career. His 10-year consistency at 1B impresses me.

4 (5) John Beckwith. About where I would put Dick Allen, who I see as a roughly comparable player for both his offensive production and his hot temper.

5 (9) Tommy Leach. His exemplary defensive value and timely hitting in a low-scoring era is worthy of HoM induction.

6 (off) Edd Roush. His context-adjusted offense is as good as Ryan's or Van Haltren's, and his outfield defense is noticeably superior to both. A huge oversight on last year's ballot.

7 (8) Clark Griffith. Adjusted well to the post-1894 distance. His career record compares favorably to HoM inductees McGinnity and Coveleski.

8 (11) Joe Sewell. I re-examined the whole ML infield crew (Childs, Doyle, Sewell, Jennings, Maranville, Traynor). Sewell was firmly in the lead.

9 (12) Dick Redding. If Joe Williams, Satchel Paige, Bullet Rogan, Bill Foster, and Hilton Smith were better Negro League hurlers, then was Redding a truly exceptional player? I'm not sure.

10 (off) Ed Williamson. Why did Ezra Sutton earn so much more love from the voters than ol' Ned? His OPS+ compares well (Ed 113, Ezra 119) and Ed was at least as good as Ezra on defense.

----------PHoM----------
11 (10) Jake Beckley. I compared Beckley to another long career type, Harold Baines:

Beckley 2930 hits, 125 OPS+
Baines 2866 hits, 120 OPS+

Baines falls into the Hall of Very Good; Beckley, then, is a borderline case.

12 (6) Jimmy Ryan
13 (7) George Van Haltren

High-average, long-career hitters, but what else did they bring to the table? Both men teeter on the edge of my PHoM line.

14 (14) Dobie Moore. The Negro-Leagues equivalent to Hughie Jennings, but an even better hitter.

15 (off) Rube Waddell. The Rubester sneaks his way onto the bottom. Dazzy Vance-lite in a lower scoring era, with reliability issues.

----------------------
16. Bresnahan
17. Duffy
18. Ben Taylor
19. Childs
20. Joss
----------------------

Gone from 1941: Childs (was 13), Traynor (was 15).

Eppa Rixey: Doesn't belong in the HoM. Red Faber was a doubtful pick; Rixey would be a worse pick. Look at the ugly residue careers obtained by subtracting Vance's or Griffith's statistics from Rixey's career total.
   26. Rusty Priske Posted: January 04, 2005 at 02:32 PM (#1055528)
PHoM, Red Faber & Edd Roush


1. Eppa Rixey (5,4,7) PHoM 1939

With no strong new candidates, I did some reanalysis and tried to put two in the "elect-me" spots that it would be a mistake to overlook.

2. George Van Haltren (7,6,5) PHoM 1912. Most overdue candidate.

3. Tommy Leach (6,7,6) PHoM 1921. Underrated, but consistant support gives him an outside chance.

4. Jake Beckley (4,2,3) PHoM 1913. Should get in.

5. Mickey Welch (3,1,2) PHoM 1929. My top non-shoe-in from last year slips a bit. I would still like to see him inducted, but he doesn't top my priority list.

6. George Sisler (8,8,9) PHoM 1940
7. Edd Roush (10,9,8) PHoM 1942
8. Hugh Duffy (11,12,11) PHoM 1930
9. Sam Rice (9,3,x) PHoM 1940

These four are fairly consistant from last year. They are strong, but it is a good drop below Welch.

10. Jimmy Ryan (14,14,10) PHoM 1914. Next to GVH, the most underrated overall, imo.

11. Joe Sewell (12,10,x). Probably will make my PHoM soon.

12. Bill Monroe (x,15,15). Back after a one year absence.

13. Dobie Moore (x,x,x) PHoM 1932. Deserves a spot.

14. Harry Hooper (13,11,12) PHoM 1931

15. Cupid Childs (x,13,x). Also back after a one year absence.

16-20. Doyle, Griffith, Powell, Grimes, Streeter

21-25. Willis, Burns, Mullane, Redding, White

26-30. Poles, Gleason, Maranville, F.Jones, McCormick
   27. DavidFoss Posted: January 04, 2005 at 05:32 PM (#1055799)
5. Terry, Bill – ...[snip]... When he retired, he ran car dealerships in my hometown (Jacksonville, Fla.) and was generally known as an irascible fellow. My guess is he was not a popular teammate.

Starting in 1932, he was the manager... successor to McGraw.
   28. Chris Cobb Posted: January 04, 2005 at 06:59 PM (#1056043)
1942 Ballot

I’ve been busy with Negro-League stuff, so I haven’t done any re-thinking of the rest of my ballot this year. Everyone moves up, as the backloggers have another chance at election. My ballot is heavy with neglected 1890s stars and pitchers. Clark Griffith is both, and he holds down the #1 spot this year. Wish I had had time to make the case for him . . .

1. Clark Griffith (3). Best 1890s candidate available, and the need to elect another 1890s pitcher is clear. His relation to his peer pitchers is similar to that of Faber and Rixey. His raw peak is higher than theirs because pitchers threw more innings per season while his career value is lower because pitchers tended to burn out sooner, but his standing relative to his peers is close. Quality of competition considerations give him a slight edge over Rixey.
2. Eppa Rixey (4). Long, solidly above average career.
3. John Beckwith (7) Reevalution of 4 of his seasons in light of better data and information about his playing time moves him up here. I now see him as a definite HoMer.
4. Dazzy Vance (5). During his best seasons, he was really phenomenal. For a short peak, the best pitcher of the 1920s, I think. But Rixey has 1500 innings on him, plus (for me) WWI credit, so the Dazzler slots in here. I figure his RSI would have been about 2 points higher for his career if he had been a hitter of average ability.
5. Hughie Jennings (6). Best peak available, now that Ruth and Hornsby have been elected. Would represent 1890s well.
6. George Van Haltren (8). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet.
7. Edd Roush (9). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but a heck of a player when he was on the field in his prime.
8. Tommy Leach (10) Finally getting his due. Won’t have a chance at election until the 1960s, but it looks like he’s more firmly on the radar now.
9. Dick Redding (11). Still working on Negro-League pitching WS. I’ve worked out the new system and have results for Joe Rogan that I’ll be posting soon, but for this year no reevaluation of Redding or Mendez. I hope I’ll have that done in time for Bill Foster’s arrival next year.
10. Jose Mendez (12). See Redding above.
11. George Sisler (13). Nice peak.
12. Larry Doyle (14). Appreciating his hitting more.
13. Urban Shocker (15) Never had a bad year.
14. Burleigh Grimes (16). Threw a lot of innings, had some big years, but also had a lot of seasons were he was not especially effective.
15. Rabbit Maranville (17). OPS is sad-looking, but his run from 1914 to 1930 was a fine career. Definitely one of the all-time great defensive shortstops. Last time he’ll appear on my ballot for many years.


Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot.
Joe Sewell – see #28 below
Jake Beckley – see #42 below
Rube Waddell – See #20 below
   29. Chris Cobb Posted: January 04, 2005 at 07:04 PM (#1056060)
1941 Off-Ballot

16. Mickey Welch (18).
17. Spotswood Poles (19)
18. Hugh Duffy (20).
19. Carl Mays (21).
20. Rube Waddell (22) Waddell was a great talent, and he was one of the greatest characters in the history of major-league baseball. He’s thus deserving of his place in the Hall of Fame, but I think his value is just below the threshold for Hall of Merit induction. In the context of his time, just the eighth-best pitcher of the aughts.
21. Jimmy Ryan (23)
22. Roger Bresnahan (24).
23. Wally Schang (25).
24. Wilbur Cooper (26).
25. Bill Terry (n/e). I like Terry a lot, but my system sees him belonging here in the company of various almost-but-not-quite HoMers. The gap between him and Sisler is larger than I’d like, but I’m not sure what to do about it yet.
26. Dobie Moore (27).
27. Ben Taylor (28)
28. Joe Sewell (29). I’ve warmed to Sewell considerably since he first became eligible, but he, like Terry and Waddell, is an almost-but-not-quite HoMer. The 1920s infielder on the ballot who stands out for election is John Beckwith.
29. Harry Hooper (30).
30. Cupid Childs (31).
31. Bobby Veach (32)
32. Fielder Jones (33)
33. Dolf Luque (34)
34. Gavvy Cravath (35)
35. Herman Long (36)
36. Tommy Bond (37)
37. George J. Burns (38)
38. Charley Jones (39)
39. Bruce Petway (40)
40. Bill Monroe (41)
41. Babe Adams (42)
42. Jake Beckley (43). Still doesn’t have much peak.
43. Sam Rice (44).
44. Dave Bancroft (45)
45. Mike Tiernan (46)
46. Frank Chance (47)
47. Tony Mullane (48)
48. Ed Konetchy (49)
49. Lave Cross (50)
50. Addie Joss (51)
51. John McGraw (52)

New and Recent Arrivals Worthy of Note and awaiting evaluation

Lefty Andy Cooper. Still not ranked. Part of the great NeL pitcher project to be completed for Bill Foster’s arrival in 1943.

George Uhle. Haven’t studied him yet. Might break the top 50.

Buzz Arlett. Waiting on Brent’s next round of WS estimates before placing him. I am doubtful that he will rank ahead of Gavvy Cravath at 34 or Charley Jones at 38, but he might break the top 50.
   30. Adam Schafer Posted: January 04, 2005 at 07:22 PM (#1056109)
1. Mickey Welch (3) - Welcome back to #1 Mickey

2. Dazzy Vance (4) - Lots of newbies at the top of my list. I am debating hard whether to

have Vance ahead of Welch or not. I'm much more of a career voter than I am peak, but my

god, Vance has a great peak, and enough career to satisfy me. I can only sit and wonder what

tyep of numbers he would've had if he'd been pitching well before he was 31.

3. Eppa Rixey (5) - Close call between him and Faber

4. Burleigh Grimes (6) - Tough debate over whether I'd have him or Rice at #4.

5. Sam Rice (7) - This is the type of consistency that I love

6. Pie Traynor (8) - One of the best 3b ever

7. George Sisler (9) - This is going to be an unpopular vote I know, but his peak was great,

and there's enough career for me put him this high. What George has really done, is

convinced me to move Beckley up on my ballot again.

8. Clark Griffith (10) - Same old story for Clark

9. Jake Beckley (11) - Not far off from Sisler.

10. Rube Waddell (12) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the

all-time ERA leaders.

11. Wally Schang (13) - Lots of career value for a catcher

12. Joe Sewell (14) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out

-----------------------My PHOM line-----------------------------------------



13. George Van Haltren (15) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.

14. Jose Mendez (16) - I haven't been able to convince myself that he deserves a spot higher

than this.

15. Roger Bresnahan (17) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I would've ranked Roger

higher had he caught more and played the OF less during his peak years.

16. Herb Pennock (18) - If he'd only put up some good seasons before he was 25 he would've

had a shot at my PHOM. He'll never make my PHOM, and I doubt he'll ever come close to making

the HOM, but he's good enough to scratch in just ahead of Mays.

17. Bill Terry (n/a) - Debuts just off of my ballot. I love his extended peak, but would

really like to see more career to go with it.

18. Carl Mays (19) - People may laugh that he made my ballot, but Carl could pitch. With

Sisler and Welch so high, I already have two unpopular votes, so what's one more for them to

laugh at?

19. Hughie Jennings (20) - Nothing new to add

20. Edd Roush (21) - Not quite as good as Max Carey

21. Vic Willis (24) - I'm beginning to think that I've highly underrated him. He's making a slow climb up my ballot right now.

22. Dobie Moore (22) - I believe Dobie was great, there just isn't room for him higher than

this yet. I'm sure he'll move onto the actual ballot soon enough.

23. Rabbit Maranville (23) - Only this high b/c he was a SS. No peak, and not even a good

enough career value for me, and I'm a big career voter.

24. Eddie Cicotte (25) - Underrated in my opinion. May not be HOM material, but underrated

nonetheless.

25. Bobby Veach (26) - Not enough career for him to merit a higher ranking on my ballot, but

enough peak to grab a lower spot.

26. Jimmy Ryan (27) - A watered down Van Haltren

27. Urban Shocker (28) - 8 good pitching seasons. Nothing spectacular, but a respectable

career.

28. Hugh Duffy (29) - Back onto my ballot. No new thoughts on him

29. Harry Hooper (30) - nothing overly impressive about his career. I originally thought he

would rank much higher than this on my initial ballot, but he just doesn't meet the

qualifications in my mind that everyone above him does.

30. Dick Redding (31) - I am much more impressed with Mendez

31. Ray Schalk (32)
32. Cupid Childs (33)
33. Tommy Leach (34)
34. Pete Browning (35)
35. Larry Doyle (36)
36. Fielder Jones (37)
37. Firpo Marberry (n/a)
38. Ben Taylor (38)
39. Gavvy Cravath (39)
40. Addie Joss (40)
41. Tommy Bond (41)
42. Joe Judge (42)
43. Earl Combs (43)
44. Dolph Luque (44)
45. Duke Farrell (45)
46. Andy Coooper (46)
47. Lave Cross (47)
48. George Uhle (48)
49. John Beckwith (49)
50. Tom York (50)
   31. mbd1mbd1 Posted: January 04, 2005 at 07:46 PM (#1056195)
1942 ballot: Terry catches the bottom of my ballot; none of the other new eligibles get close. Lots of moving around on this ballot, as I consider a bit of positional relativity which gets thrown off when inner circle types enter and leave the field of eligibles. This class doesn't hold up well to it's chronological neighbors, does it?

1. George Van Haltren (3) - I've always been high on GVH, and he floats right back to the top every few years.
2. Jimmy Ryan (8) - Couldn't keep these two separated for long.
3. Edd Roush (6) - Of GVH's top ten comparables, 8 are in the HOF. Ryan is also 8/10, and Roush is at 4/10. Of course, Roush is the only one of the three in the HOF himself.....
4. Harry Hooper (NA) - Same case with Hooper....he and only 3 of his 10 comps are in the HOF. It's a weird place.
5. Sam Rice (14) - The long career guys are back in my good graces.
6. Roger Bresnahan (7) - Stays high on my ballot after his debut last year.
7. Hugh Duffy (4) - Yeah, so my first 6.5 ballot spots go to outfielders. After that, though...I'm trying to be better about having a more balanced ballot. Trying.
8. Joe Sewell (NA) - Deservedly back on my ballot.
9. Jake Beckley (10) - Jake is hanging in there; I'm liking his career more than Terry's and Sisler's right now.
10. Dazzy Vance (5) - Dropped a few spots.
11. Tommy Leach (13) - 1/2 outfielder representative for the bottom of my ballot.
12. Larry Doyle (NA) - Also deservedly back on my ballot, although I feel more strongly about Sewell.
13. Bill Terry (NA) - I like his nice consistent career; I'd really like it if he had somehow squeezed a couple more years in there.
14. John Beckwith (NA) - I've gone back and forth on him, decided that he probably deserves a ballot spot.
15. Eppa Rixey (NA) - Back on my ballot after getting edged off last year.

Next five: Schang, Sisler, Veach, Traynor, Burns. Griffith is behind Waddell, Willis, Grimes, and Mays in my pitcher ranking, and Jennings doesn't appeal to the career voter in me.

As an aside, I kinda like Phillybooster's marathon/sprinters analogy...
   32. Rick A. Posted: January 04, 2005 at 08:11 PM (#1056303)
PHOM
Vic Willis - Very comparable to Rixey and Grimes. Jumped up in new evaluatuion system I started a few years ago.
Dazzy Vance

1942 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
2.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
3.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
4.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
5.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak. Elected PHOM in 1940
6.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
7.Dazzy Vance – Could go either way between him and Rixey. Very close to Waddell in raw stats, but Vance dominated his competition to a greater degree than Waddell. Waddell also had his UER problem. Elected PHOM in 1942

The next 4 players are very close and I may change their order in later years.

8.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense. Took another look at him and he moved up a couple of spots
9.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position..
10.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him onto my ballot.
11.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
12.George Sisler – Major jump up. I believe that WS undervalues his peak. Jumps up in my new evaluation.
13.Wally Schang – Took a closer look at Bresnahan and Schang. While Bresnahan was a better hitter, Schang played catcher more and was the top catcher of his time more often than Bresnahan was.
14.Tommy Leach – Good peak and decent career.
15.Jose Mendez – Slotted between Foster and Waddell. Took a closer look with Redding on the ballot. Like his peak over Redding’s career

New Candidates
Bill Terry – Very good player. Close to Sisler, but Sisler’s big peak years moves him over Terry.

Firpo Marberry - Very difficult to rate him without any idea how to evaluate relievers yet. Probably wouldn't have made my ballot anyway.

Required Explanations
Clark Griffith – Close to Waddell, but neither is on my ballot right now.
Joe Sewell – the 1942 discussion convinced me that I was overrating him. Best SS in ML at his time, but he has a weak peak and not a very long career. Still a good player, though.
Jake Beckley - Lower peak than Van Haltren, in my top 50, but just barely.

Off the ballot
16-20 Grimes, Roush, Redding, Cooper, McGraw
21-25 Waddell, Williamson, Terry, Taylor, Bond
26-30 Mays, Griffith, Poles, Tiernan, Bresnahan
31-35 Van Haltren, Doyle, Sewell, Traynor, Chance
36-40 Burns, Bancroft, Griffin, F. Jones, McCormick
41-45 Wilson, Long, Welch, R. Thomas, Cravath
46-50 Fournier, Konetchy, Beckley, Dunlap, Mullane
   33. Daryn Posted: January 04, 2005 at 08:32 PM (#1056411)
I still can't figure out why Rice is so far behind Beckley and Sisler in everyone's minds.

1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his record against HoMers.

2. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

3. George Sisler – Hits impress me and he had a lot of them, plus a better peak than Beckley. I’ve put Beckley ahead of him because I’m a career voter.

4. Sam Rice – close to Beckley – I’ve put him behind Beckley and Sisler in a nod to the intelligence of the consensus. Pretty close to 9000 hits in these three candidates and it looks like they’ll side-by-side on my ballot for at least the next 15 to 20 years. I haven’t seen a good explanation as to why Beckley supporters are not supporting Rice. I don't mind dropping Rice if I could figure out why I should.

5. Burleigh Grimes – takes Faber’s spot on my ballot. I like the wins, don’t like the ERA+. Welch-lite. The beginning of pitcher/catcher row.

6. Eppa Rixey – back to his original spot in a dead heat with Grimes and Faber (the latter now elected).

7. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

8. Dazzy Vance – not much to choose between the career stats of Waddell and Vance. I give the nod to Waddell based on the ERA+. Wins and ERA+ are my two uberstats for pitchers.

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

10. Redding – probably the 6th or 7th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams, Paige, Foster, Foster and Rogan), and that is good enough for me.

11. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely worse than Grimes and barely better than Mendez, Joss, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin.

12. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

13. Joe Sewell – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense. I don’t see him as a HoMer though.

14. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.

15. Bill Terry – could drop – I’d place Puckett and Mattingly about here on my ballot.

16. Pie Traynor -- just behind Leach. I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

17. Beckwith – I’m assuming he was pretty bad on defence. The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 297 career WS. I like him better than Monroe and Moore but I’m not sure he’s Hornsby-dark.

18. Bill Munroe – I think he was pretty good. Any blackball player that is even talked about as among the best 70 years later is pretty good. I’ll take McGraw’s word for it.

19. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right.

20. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. Could be below Duffy. Eight pitchers in my top 17.

21. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.

22. Hack Wilson – all peak, no career. Lip Pike lite.

23 to 27.

·George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

·Spotswood Poles – Van Haltren seems like a good comp.

·Edd Roush – little difference between Carey, GVH, Poles, Roush, Ryan and Duffy.

·Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs.

·Hugh Duffy – 10 strong seasons, good black ink.

28. Jennings – he’d be lower for me if you guys weren’t all so sure he was great.
   34. Tiboreau Posted: January 05, 2005 at 01:53 AM (#1057193)
I still can't figure out why Rice is so far behind Beckley and Sisler in everyone's minds.

Daryn, I replied to this in the '42 discussion thead. (And I hope the tone is okay. . . . )
   35. EricC Posted: January 05, 2005 at 02:03 AM (#1057210)
1942 ballot.

Voting system:
1. Players are rated in order of best prime.
2. A Prime is a series of consecutive seasons that gives a player his best rating.
3. The rating is a function of "strength of prime" and "length of prime"
4. Strength of prime is determined relative to all peers and to peers at the same position, and rated more heavily toward whatever is more favorable to the player.
5. Differences in league strengths are real and are incorporated into the system.

A gazillion technical details later, a system arises that is fun, and, I humbly submit, does a pretty good job of separating the kind of players that Cooperstown likes from the kinds that they have passed over.

1. Wally Schang Things are not this simple, but if I had to quantify my "catcher bonus", it would be maybe 50-60 percent. While my ballot seems catcher heavy, that is because there seems to be a sharper division of catchers into "ins" and "outs" than there is for other positions. So far, my system agrees with Cooperstown on 20th century catchers, except that Schalk should be traded for Schang (maybe his induction was because of a spelling mistake.)
2. Joe Sewell Dominant ML SS of the 20s.
3. Roger Bresnahan Not as high as Schang because NL was weak during his time.
4. Eppa Rixey If a NL "enemy" like me likes him, he must be a HoMer. :-)
5. Pie Traynor. Similar argument to Sewell: dominant ML player at his position.
6 . Sam Rice. For Rice, Hooper, Beckley, and Schalk, length rates more heavily than strength.
7. Harry Hooper
8. Jose Mendez Outstanding seasons in a good career; the Waddell-Vance type.
9. George "Rube" Waddell Oh, did I mention that I give a kind of "big year bonus" to pitchers?
10. Jake Beckley
11. Urban Shocker A case where consistent very goodness equals near greatness.
12. Ray Schalk Not too thrilled about him, but set the record at the time for games caught and was usually one of the best C.
13. Jack Quinn The kind of pitcher that does well on comprehensive metrics but doesn't have enough oomph to be appreciated.
14. Dazzy Vance. If Vance jumping onto a ballot at #14 is good enough for John Murphy, then it's good enough for me.
15. Eddie Cicotte Another pitcher in the Waddell-Vance mold. Will this be his last time on my ballot?

The following either came close, or did not have a sufficient length-strength combination in context:

17. George Van Haltren
19. Hughie Jennings
23. Clark Griffith
39. George Sisler
40. Bill Terry
47. Tommy Leach.
   36. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:27 PM (#1058330)
Good to be back.

I see the Jennings haters are out in full force early on! I am here to balance this out. Jennings/Vance in '42!

Vance and Pike make my personal Hall of Merit. I use Win Shares as a base and WARP to check myself, probably on a 60/40 scale. I also use best at position and other considerations, like those anitquated stats like AVG, OBP, and HR.

For pitchers I use BP stats from theor translated stats and DERA. I also use actual stats and Chris J's Run Support Index. Win Shares is awful across eras when it comes to pitchers. I may start using WARP, however.

1. Hughie Jennings (3, PHOM 1938) - Not too much else to say. He was the best player in baseball from 1894-1898, a time period which gives him the best peak of all the eligible white players (Moore may have had a better peak, I am not sure).
If we are looking for greatness, Jennings at his best was the greatest.

2. Dazzy Vance (4, PHOM this year) - Best DERA (3.58) of the eligibles and more translated innings pitched than any of the other guys under 4.00. I believe he was the best of the 20s glut, better than Faber and Coveleski. We elected those two, with my support, now we should elect Vance.

3. Cupid Childs (5, PHOM 1939) - Best 2B of the 1890s. Had a nice peak and long career for a 2B of his time. Gets a boost becomes the rough play of the 1890s affected middle infielders the most, in my opinion.

3a. Lip Pike
4. Bill Terry (newbie) - This seems high I know. I didnt' even expect him to be this high. But he grades out as having a higher peak than Sisler and a longer, more productive prime. Sure Sisler's best season is better than Terry's, but Terry's has a massive edge from there on out. I really like Terry but I didnt' want to rush him into my PHOM.

The next few guys will probably make my PHOM someday, but with some very strong classes coming in it won't be in the near future. By that time, I may have reevaluated them to their detriment.

5. Eppa Rixey (6) - He probably won't make my PHOM anytime soon, and it may be an uphill climb to ever make it, but he pitched A LOT of innings and he did it pretty well. I am more impressed by career guys on the mound than career guys in the batter's box for whatever reason.

6. Clark Griffith (11) - Big mover, almost put him ahead of Rixey, but I dont' want to get carried away. BP gives him 1600 fewer translated innings than Rixey, which is A LOT. As the fourth best pitcher of the 1890's he probably deserves to get in. But on his own mertis I am not so sure.

7. Hugh Duffy (9) - When adjusting his WS to a 154 game schedule he looks like a monster. Best prime, peak second only to Jennings, great career. However, WARP is less enthusiastic and so am I as I believe WS overrates CFers a tad. Still he is climbing up.

8. Dick Redding (8) - 2nd best NeL Dead ball era pitcher next to Williams.

9. Rube Waddell (10) - Lot's of Ks, great DERA, very nice peak. His lack of career keeps him from being in the upper reaches of my ballot.

As an aside, does DERA take into account unearned runs? I believe that it does, making it more accurate for Waddell than ERA+. He still kicks ass in it though.

10. Tommy Leach (7) - Leach suffered from my using WARP a bit more. Still has a nice long career and a nice productive prime. Splitting his time between 3B and CF doesn't help either. As a CFer he would rate below guys like Roy Thomas and Fielder Jones.

11. George Van Haltren (18) - an old favorite comes back with a vengeance as I adjust his career to a 154 game schedule. Per WS and my system, his peak was a good as Hack Wilson's. his career, of course, was phenomenal.

12. Jose Mendez - Career arc much like Waddell, but with a lower ERA+.

13. George Sisler (11) - Still a nice peak, but he suffers in comparison with Terry.

14. Jimmy Sheckard (25) - Even after adjusting Pete Browning and others to 154 game schedules AND doing a WARP write-up, Sheckard still rates as the best corner outfielder in my system. I just cant' ignore it any longer. I will admit that it is a pretty weak group right now, but Jimmy just stands out. Best '06 Cub position player? Never would have guessed that in my youth.

15. Dobie Moore (16) - Had a great peak, one that may have been as good as Jennings. However, there is NOTHING outside of it, at least Jennings showed up. Not sure what to do with his military years still, so I am keeping him down here. He and Beckwith are candidates to move up in the future.
   37. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:31 PM (#1058340)
14. Jimmy Sheckard (25)

Has he been removed from the HOM?
   38. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:33 PM (#1058347)
I just checked - Sheckard is still there. :-D
   39. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:38 PM (#1058362)
16-20 - Beckwith, Browning, Bresnahan, Veach, Roush
21-25 - Monroe, Doyle, Shocker, McGraw, Wilson,
26-30 - Sewell, Traynor, Cravath, R. Thomas, Chance
31-35 - Joss, Burns, Ryan, F. Jones, Schang
36-40 - Evers, Grimes, Konetchy, Cicotte, Beckley
41-45 - Welch, Rice, Mays, Tinker, Bancroft
46-50 - Seymour, Schalk, Long, C. Jones, Rommel/Marberry

Required disclosures

26. Joe Sewell - Very similar to Bancroft, Tinker, and Long. He was better than all three but the difference is too slight for me to draw the in/out line between them

41. Mickey Welch - low ERA+, low tranlasted IP. He deserved his 300 wins in his own time, but had he pitched 20-30 years later he may have struggled to get to 200 wins.

42. Jake Beckley - The anti-Jennings. Better than Same Rice because he has a peak according to WARP. Still, his peak grades as a zero in my WS system. I want to elect great players and I dont' think a player can become great by being above average to good for a decade or more.

Newbies

Didn't get a chance to look at Tom Zachary, I guess this makes me a bad person

50 (tie). Firpo Marberry - I like him but don't yet know what to do with him. This is why he is tied for 50th. It isn't a copout. I fear if I dont' put him here he will be lost to the sands of time. I dont' want that to happen. All of that being said, it would probably take a miracle for him to make my PHOM. I think our first reliever will be Wilhelm.
   40. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:43 PM (#1058373)
Damn, I feel like an idiot. Thanks John!

I guess it was that he was part of John's schpiel on Tom Yorke when I started, I jsut immediately puthim into my consideration set. I think I will just plame it on Murph and move on.

As for my ballot, do I have to post the entire thing? I would just move Beckwith to 15th and Moore to 14th. Here it is without explanations

1. Jennings
2. Vance
3. Childs
4. Terry
5. Rixey
6. Griffith
7. Duffy
8. Redding
9. Waddell
10. Leach
11. GVH
12. Mendez
13. Sisler
14. Dobie Moore
15. John Beckwith

Should have figured that out! Sorry guys!
   41. robc Posted: January 05, 2005 at 05:00 PM (#1058401)
1. Joe Sewell - clear cut top of ballot guy. Stands out from the rest of the pack.

2. Bill Terry - Best 1B on the ballot. Slightly better career than Beckley, much better peak.

3. Lave Cross - Best of the 3Bs. I havent really looked forward a long ways, but if we dont end up elected guys like Cross and Traynor, we are going to have an out-of-balance Hall.

4. Harry Hooper - Highest WARP3 career value on the ballot, at least before the most recent WARP change.

5. Fielder Jones - The CFs seem to be nigh near indistinguishable. Maybe that means that none should be in the HoM. Jones is the best of the lot.

6. Bobby Veach - good but not great peak.

7. Dazzy Vance - Top pitcher on the ballot, due to his peak. Career is lacking.

8. Pete Browning - Ive have rererereassessed Broning. I have moved him up to here, which is below the guys I would vote in and above the Hall of Very Good.

Below here lies the Hall of Very Good - From 9 to 30+ are mostly indistinguishable.
9. Wally Schang - it takes a catcher bonus to get him here.

10. Tommy Leach - look! a Center Fielder.

11. Del Pratt - Him and Childs keep flip-flopping as best 2B on my ballot. Probably niether deserves induction.

12. Pie Traynor - If better 3B candidates dont come along, he could make my PHOM someday.

13. Eppa Rixey - Rixey and Waddell were good. Not quite meritorious enough for me.
14. Rube Waddell

15. Rabbit Maranville - I have defended has HoF election in the past. I really would like to vote him higher, but I just cant do it.

Griffith, Jennings, Sisler and Beckley are all in this Very Good group. I have them at 19, 25, 28, and 16 respectively. None are very far from the 9 spot.
   42. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2005 at 05:46 PM (#1058526)
I think I will just plame it on Murph and move on.

LOL
   43. Chris Cobb Posted: January 05, 2005 at 06:27 PM (#1058616)
robc wrote:

12. Pie Traynor - If better 3B candidates dont come along, he could make my PHOM someday.

John Beckwith?
   44. robc Posted: January 05, 2005 at 06:55 PM (#1058682)
I have Beckwith at 27, which isnt much different from 12. So, yeah, in the long run it could be him instead.
   45. OCF Posted: January 05, 2005 at 08:25 PM (#1058896)
23 ballots in. 19 candidates receiving "elect me" votes, with no one candidate getting more than 6 of those. The record for lowest average consensus score is within reach.
   46. TomH Posted: January 05, 2005 at 08:40 PM (#1058939)
Well if y'all would just be reasonable about voting for Griffith and Vance, we wouldn't have this problem :)
   47. karlmagnus Posted: January 05, 2005 at 08:51 PM (#1058967)
Is there a software where I can do a global change from "with" to "ley"? There's a clear majority for somone whose first 4 letters are Beck... :-))
   48. Tiboreau Posted: January 05, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1059196)
1. Dazzy Vance—Like Waddell, Vance packs a lot of his value in his peak years, the foundation of which are his K numbers. Rates a little higher than Waddell due to Rube’s UER issues.
2. John Beckwith—John’s spot on my ballot is mainly based on Gadfly’s inestimable opinion on his hitting and Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections.
3. Clark Griffith—While Waddell has better peak value (51.2 warp1 & 145 WS in 5 consecutive years vs. 45.7 & 143), Clark Griffith’s career advantage (45 more games, 320+ more IP, and 33 more WS) is enough to edge ahead of the Rube.
4. Rube Waddell—See comments on Clark Griffith and Dazzy Vance.
5. Hughie Jennings—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprises of 73.3% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value.
6. Hugh Duffy—See comments on Edd Roush.
7. Edd Roush—Nearly indistinguishable from Duffy: 126 ops+ vs. 122; 109.7 warp1 and 315 WS (25.86 per 162) vs. 100.3 and 295 (27.51), giving Roush a slight career advantage IMO; 46.2 warp1 and 136 WS in best five consecutive years vs. 48.1 and 144, giving Duffy a slight advantage peak-wise.
8. Dobie Moore—Based off projections, estimates, and anecdotes, the Negro Leaguers are the wild cards of my HoM ballot. Called the "best unrecognized player" of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings.
9. Pete Browning—The one change to my ballot, his Pen. Add. has made me aware that I have not been adjusting for season length enough for the Gladiator.
10. Larry Doyle—Siding with Win Shares interpretation of his defense, combined with an adjustment for Childs’s 1890 AA competition, gives Doyle the edge over Childs.
11. Cupid Childs—See comments on Larry Doyle.
12. Eppa Rixey—Did not have a great peak, but Eppa was consistently real good for a long time. Best name on the ballot, in my opinion.
13. Bill Terry—Similar to Sisler, WARP and Pen. Add. actually have his peak higher than Gorgeous George’s (51.3 vs. 49.5, and .698 vs. .695). Considering the mediocrity of the second half of Sisler’s career, Terry edges George despite Sisler’s career advantage.
14. George Van Haltren—Raised in esteem after I re-evaluating infielders and peak. I consider him to be similar to Leach; his large career value makes up for slightly less peak value than Tommy.
15. Tommy Leach—For some odd reason, when I re-evaluated infielders I put Leach behind Sisler. I don’t know why. Excellent career, and good peak value puts Leach on my ballot.

Disclosures:
Joe Sewell—I see him as the third best infielder of his era when including Negro Leaguers Beckwith and Moore, and behind four other middle infielders: Jennings, Doyle, Childs, and Leach. So, Sewell falls just off my ballot.
George Sisler—I’ve changed my mind: while his peak is nice, it’s not good enough to make up for the mediocrity of the second-half of his career. He’s sitting just off the ballot with Joe Sewell. This marks my final decision that none of the present 1b candidates are more than borderline for my ballot.
Jake Beckley—Very good career numbers, however, his peak numbers are among the lowest of any candidate. Even with fielding adjustments, there are still other very good career, good peak guys I'd put ahead of him.
   49. yest Posted: January 06, 2005 at 02:18 AM (#1059631)
1942 ballot
Bill Terry and Pie Traynor make my PHOM
I’ll like to thank Bill James for limiting the chances of my top 3 making the HoM :}

1. George Sisler I have a very strong feeling no one is ever going to convince me that (1927) finishing 3rd in hits, 8th in total bases, 9th in rbis and 1st in steals is at replacement level (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Bill Terry 341 batting avg (makes my personal HoM this year)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Sam Rice 2987 hits (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Dazzy Vance love the strikeouts
9. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
10. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
11. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
13. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
14. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
15. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
16. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
17. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
18. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
19. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
20. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
21. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
22. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
23. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
24. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
25. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Tommy Leach I don’t even understand the argument for him
   50. Thane of Bagarth Posted: January 06, 2005 at 03:44 AM (#1059761)
1942 Ballot:

1) Dazzy Vance—Stands out among eligible pitchers. 3-time league leader in ERA+. More Translated IP and better rate stats than Coveleski, whom I ranked highly. 3.71 all-time DERA, 218 top 5 PRAA, and 488 top 5 PRAR are all best for available pitchers. 31.03 WS/Season is second only to Joss among 20th century pitchers. If he doesn’t make it this year he will be behind Bill Foster and slightly ahead of Wes Ferrell, among pitchers, in coming years.
2) Dick Redding—2nd best NeL pitcher of the deadball era.
3) Bill Terry—I was surprised to learn that he was this good considering I always heard about his era-inflated batting average. WARP3 favors him more than WS, but he fares well in both. Top 5 WARP3 49.8 is second only to Jennings. A+ fielding helps, too.
4) John Beckwith—OK, I’ve gone all the way in reconsidering his standing among NeL 3rd basemen—he is #1. It appears that his negative “intangibles” and less than stellar defense have cost him dearly in his historic reputation, but they cannot outweigh his offensive contributions. Marcelle, Dandridge, and Johnson consistently rank above Beckwith in the expert polls, but I am convinced they are greatly overrating 3B defense. How much better would they have to be with the glove to be more valuable than Beckwith? None of the stats I have seen for the other 3 indicate that they are even close to JB with the bat.
5) Ben Taylor— One of the top 3 NeL 1st basemen of all time. Upon closer examination of Terry, I think Taylor is more similar to him than any of the other Caucasian 1st basemen. Though it’s hard to compare because the eras are so different, I see Taylor as a longer-career, slightly lower peak version of Terry—excelling as both hitter and fielder. Not to mention he could pitch a little, too.
6) Pete Browning—The Louisville Slugger is staying put at #6 for the 3rd straight election. 162 OPS+, .305 EQA (all time), 30.81 WS/162G.
7) Rube Waddell—142 ERA+. 3.77 DERA. 214 PRAA, 434 PRAR, 145 WS in 5 best seasons. Only eligible pitcher other than Vance who has over 400 PRAR in his top 5 seasons.
8) Jose Mendez--Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat. He moves up from the bottom of the ballot to better represent the narrow margin between Jose and Cannonball.
9) Joe Sewell--Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. His peak can’t match up with Jennings’, but the rest of his career is solid and moves him ahead.
10) Hughie Jennings--Nothing new here. He’s all peak, but it’s hard to resist: 53.8/151 in top 5 WARP3/WS seasons.
11) Dobie Moore--Nice combo of hitting and fielding. Untimely end to career hurts, but military playing time helps. Beckwith has moved ahead decisively, but the difference between 3 and 12 is not immense. Ranking Dick Lundy next “year” will be a challenge.
12) Eppa Rixey— The revised BP numbers have Rixey popping up on the end of my ballot. Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+.
13) Bill Monroe--Now that the Rajah is gone, he’s the #1 2nd baseman on my ballot. I see him as slightly better than Childs and not far behind Moore.
14) Charley Jones-- OPS+ of 149. 29.17 WS/162g. .290 EQA. Bump for missed years.
15) Fielder Jones—Revised WARP #s bring Fielder back closer to the OF glut. A+ fielder like Hooper & Carey and significantly better WS/162 at 26.28 puts him ahead of those guys even though they played a bit longer. Modest OPS+ of 111 masks competitive .282 EQA.

The second 15
16) Urban Shocker—Top three seasons were a bit below Cicotte’s, but career and 5-year peak totals of WS, WARP3, PRAA are very close or better than Ed’s.
17) Clark Griffith—Increased Translated IP help move him near the bottom of my ballot.
18) Harry Hooper—A small move upfrom #22. He’s not all that different from Fielder Jones. He benefits in my system from a strong league/context according to BP’s stats. Both BP and WS show him having a moderate peak, at best, but he played at a decent level for a long time—consistently averaged 20 WS for 15 straight years from 1910 to 1924.
19) George Van Haltren— A very good player, I just don’t see anything outstanding about his career that justifies enshrinement in the HoM.
20) Spotswood Poles
21) Ed Cicotte
22) Jack Quinn
23) Jimmy Ryan
24) Hugh Duffy
25) Vic Willis
26) Bobby Veach
27) George Sisler— WARP3 totals (71.8 career) are not as positive as WS (292). The BP revision helps him a bit, but he’s still somewhere amidst the OF glut.
28) Cy Seymour
29) Tommy Leach—Great defense at two positions is impressive, but the overall numbers just don’t stand out enough for me to find a spot on the ballot for him.
30) Roy Thomas

Remaining player in Last Year’s Top 10 who were left off my ballot:
60) Jake Beckley—Unimpressive 21.59 WS/162G and 32.8 top 5 WARP3 cannot be overcome by his longevity. New WARP does help some, though.

New Players in Top 100
77) Clint Thomas
87) Tom Zachary
??) Buzz Arlett—I am convinced he belongs in the top 100 somewhere, but I’m waiting to see whether it should be the top 10 or bottom 10.
   51. DavidFoss Posted: January 06, 2005 at 03:47 AM (#1059767)
Looks like the world will never be the same after that infamous day in Pearl Harbor. Glad to see that most MLB-ers will be back in '42. The country's morale deserves a boost.

What a great year last year was with the 56 game hitting streak and the .406 season by The Kid. The pennant race between Brooklyn & StLouis was a tight one as well. St Louis's 20 year old phenom from Denora, PA hit .426/.449/.574 in 12 games. A full season of The Man should make this years race all the more interesting.

I've been fortunate in that the recent backlog years have caused what few non-consensus "favorites" I have had to be inducted.

What's left for me is a ballot overflowing with 6-15 types... that is, the ballot is extremely deep in mid-to-lower ballot candidates. Many deserve honorable mention. Rixey, Browning, Chance, Moore, Cravath, Schang and Poles have all received votes from me before. Traynor & Beckley have each been very close as well. What I don't feel I have on my ballot are any solid top-five candidates. I've done my best to rank the backlog as best as I could this year. May the best two candidates win. :-)

1942 Ballot

1. Larry Doyle (nr-14-11-9-8-6-7-10-8-8-6-4-2-3-3) -- Wow, Laughing Larry at #1. That means if I had a PHOM, he'd certainly be in it! I do like him best of those eligible. I think the electorate is underrating him. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
2. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13-11-11-9-6-4-4-4) -- I like peak and boy does Hughie have peak. Short career, though. Unlike McGraw, poor seasons outside his peak slip his career rate stats a bit. Also unlike McGraw, he was quite durable inside his peak.
3. Cupid Childs (nr-15-12-10-9-8-9-14-12-12-10-8-6-6-5) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
4. Clark Griffith (nr-15-12-10-8-7-9-10-14-nr-14-14-13-8) -- The plethora of borderline 20's candidates is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
5. Charley Jones (nr-nr-13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11-9-9-7-5-3-7-6) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
6. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12-10-10-8-7-5-5-7) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keepin him out of the HOM so far.
7. Dick Redding (ne-12-10-8-9-10) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
8. Dazzy Vance (ne-11) -- Love the K's, love the ERA+, love the peak. Shortish career. Bumped up a couple slots this week after conservative first week... probably makes it this year, which is OK with me.
9. Bill Terry (ne) -- His hitting numbers are better than his career 136 OPS+ would indicate. Relatively short career has me inserting him into the backlog instead of allowing him to rise above it.
10. George Sisler (ne-14-13-11-9-10-12) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter, trailing only Ruth, Cobb, Hornsby, Speaker & Jackson with a big gap down to the next group of Heilmann, Youngs and Roush (155 RC+). After the injury, he was quite mediocre (103 RC+). Peak is high enough to make the ballot. His peak is shorter and lower than JJackson's which is what keeps him relatively low.
11. Roger Bresnahan (15-15-nr-nr-13-11-10-10-11-15-15-14-12-10-11-13) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era. Look out Roger, your catcher boosts may evaporate pretty soon.
12. John Beckwith (nr) Convinced he's ballot-worthy by recent analysis and re-analysis. He was certainly a good hitter. Career length and true defensive position have me a bit cautious this week.
13. Mickey Welch (nr-14-11-11-12-15-13-13-11-9-7-8-9) -- 300 game winner. Played for great teams in an easy era to win games, but research here is saying he did more to earn his W's than previously thought. Still, his meager 113 ERA+ is keeping him low on the ballot.
14. Joe Sewell (ne-12-14-15) His RCAA numbers are good and earn him a place on the ballot. His RCAP numbers are a bit inflated due to his being 10 years older than Cronin/Vaughn/Appling.
15. Tommy Leach (nr-15-13-13-15-14) -- Hard to rate due to mix of 3B & CF, but does well in Pennants Added. Wouldn't make the ballot on CF alone, 3B play boosts him onto the ballot.

Omissions:

Rixey -- Lingering near the edge of the ballot. Very good for a long time. I did like him better than Faber. Strong newcomers in the near future should keep him off, but he's on my radar.
Beckley -- Took a long look at him. Black Ink of 1. Top OPS finishes are 5-7-8-10.
   52. Brad G Posted: January 06, 2005 at 05:12 PM (#1060584)
1942 Ballot

1.Dazzy Vance- Relatively short but very productive career, second look puts him to the top. Racks up over 31 Win Shares per season, Black Ink = 66, Gray Ink = 171. Goes into my PHoM, along with Edd Roush.

2.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

3.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Bill James calls him “Perhaps the most over-rated player in baseball history,” yet still ranks him #24 all-time first baseman and one of the “just out of the top 100” players. Went into my HoM in 1938.

4.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS5 = 145.

5.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Win Shares A- Defender. PHoM this year.

6.Burleigh Grimes- Super Ink scores: Black = 38, Gray = 213, will probably always fall just short of the Hall.

7.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

8.Tommy Leach- Career Win Shares = 329, WARP1 = 113.7, WARP3 = 74.8.

9.Bill Terry- the only newcomer making my list this year. Not too far from Sisler- I just don’t see him as being as dominant. Still, this ranking is conservative.

10.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.

11.Sam Rice- Gets the biggest jump this year. Best career of eligible RFs. Career Win Shares = 327, Career Runs Created = 1467.

12.Eppa Rixey- Holds steady; nice career, just not Hall-worthy in my mind.

13.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445.

14.Hack Wilson- Can’t ignore the 144 OPS+. WS3 = 98, WS5 = 152.

15.Pete Browning- Hard luck case here… came close all those years ago. Career OPS+ = 162, which is nuts. Averaged close to 31 Win Shares per season.

16-20-Clark Griffith, Joe Sewell, Hughie Jennings, Larry Doyle, Dick Redding

All five of these guys teeter on the brink of my rankings each year. Admittedly, I tend to favor offensive performance, resulting in a large proportion of OFs in my top 15 (there are 6 CFs on my list this year).

Thanks!
   53. DanG Posted: January 06, 2005 at 05:54 PM (#1060731)
My #1 and #2 were elected (duh). Revived exhibits for Griffith and Bresnahan, new ones for Sisler, Rixey. 1942 will be the last year for a looong while that any of the backlog has a chance; Terry heads the newbies, while Marberry sparks our first earnest discussion re the value of closers. A flood of greats follows in 1943, led by Charleston and Cochrane, three other top NeLers, plus Frisch and three of his cronies. More greats follow in 1944 with Gehrig, Goslin, Ferrell and Cuyler. 1945 is a backlog year.

1)George Van Haltren (3,2,2) - Pennants Added study shows him well. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 34th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most runs scored 1891-1900:
1—1321 B. Hamilton
2—1215 G. Van Haltren
3—1191 J. Burkett
4—1184 E. Delahanty

5—1130 H. Duffy
6—1102 H. Long
7—1081 C. Childs
8—1070 B. Dahlen

2)Clark Griffith (4,3,3) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young

3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie
5—92.4% R. Donahue
6—90.4% J. McGinnity
7—90.2% C. Fraser
8—89.5% J. Powell
9—89.5% B. Dinneen

3)Dazzy Vance (6,ne,ne) – The Baseball Survivor project a couple years back had him as the 79th best player in history. [http://survivor.dmlco.com/voting.html] That’s maybe 100 places too high, but it still says HoMer. Bill James has him just behind Plank and Drysdale and a little ahead of Mays and Newhouser.

4)Tommy Leach (5,4,6) – With 3B lagging in HoMers, it’s good to see him getting more attention. Longevity, defense and speed rate him above Groh. Versatility a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have also handled CF. Question of league quality knocks him back a couple pegs, otherwise really close to Wallace. Had a better peak than Bobby, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Thirdbasemen with highest OPS+, 1871-1938, minimum 5500 PA (5000 before 1900):
1—138 D. Lyons
2—135 F. Baker
3—126 D. White

4—121 H. Zimmerman
5—119 E. Sutton
6—118 H. Groh
7—113 J. Collins

7—113 E. Williamson
9—110 F. Lindstrom
10—109 L. Gardner
10—109 T. Leach

5) Jimmy Ryan (7,5,7)— Most extra-base hits 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
5—484 M. Tiernan
6—474 R. Connor
7—467 H. Duffy
8—452 E. McKean

6)Edd Roush (8,6,9) – Pennants added likes him a lot. Most hits 1917-27:
1—2119 R. Hornsby
2—2040 G. Sisler
3—1992 H. Heilmann
4—1973 S. Rice
5—1939 T. Cobb
6—1925 T. Speaker

7—1777 E. Roush
8—1746 Z. Wheat
9—1742 E. Collins
10—1678 M. Carey


7)George Sisler (9,7,8) – I think Sisler is still among the top 220 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley, so he stays low on my ballot. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2400+ hits through 1980:

1—30?? C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx
6—2495 M. Vernon
7—2467 R. Connor
8—2406 S. McInnis

8)Eppa Rixey (13,12,13) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most wins, LHP, 1871-1974:
1—363 W. Spahn
2—326 E. Plank
3—300 L. Grove
4—266 E. Rixey
5—253 C. Hubbell
6—240 H. Pennock
7—236 W. Ford
8—218 E. Whitehill

9)Wally Schang (10,9,10) – A bit more sure about this ranking. Catcher bonus puts him here for now. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann

7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

10)Roger Bresnahan (11,10,11) – Versatility is a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett
4—117 J. Clements
4—117 W. Schang
6—101 D. McGuire
7—100 J. Kling
8—99 D. Farrell
   54. DanG Posted: January 06, 2005 at 05:56 PM (#1060739)
11)Hughie Jennings (12,11,12) – Does four years of ARod plus eight years of Ivan DeJesus equal a HoMer? Maybe. Bill James thinks highly of him, he’s #18 at SS in the NBJHBA. I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be? Most TC/G, 1889-1904, minimum 750 games at shortstop:
1—6.68 H. Jennings
2—6.45 B. Dahlen
3—6.40 B. Wallace
4—6.40 G. Davis

5—6.37 H. Long
6—6.18 M. Cross
7—6.10 T. Corcoran
8—6.05 B. Ely

12)Hugh Duffy (14,--,--) – He kinda fell off my radar for awhile, until I realized he shouldn’t be very far behind Ryan. Peak puts him over Hooper, but he didn’t have a long career (12.5 yrs) for a corner OF. A WHOLE lot was context. Hit 82 of his 106 career HRs at home. Players with 1900 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1889-99:
1—2585 H. Duffy
2—2348 E. Delahanty
3—2141 G. Van Haltren
4—2135 B. Hamilton
5—2117 J. Beckley
6—2099 H. Long
7—2038 E. McKean
8—1939 G. Davis
9—1901 J. Ryan

13)Bill Terry – I may be overrating him. Every ranking I find has Sisler just a bit higher.

14)Burleigh Grimes (15,13,ne) – More a workhorse but less longevity then Rixey. Similar peaks. Most wins 1916-29:

1—246 P. Alexander
2—224 B. Grimes
3—213 S. Coveleski
4—211 W. Johnson

5—210 E. Rixey
6—201 C. Mays
7—197 R. Faber
8—187 U. Shocker
9—187 W. Cooper
10-183 H. Pennock

15)Cupid Childs (--,--,--) – Back on my ballot, the last time was 1915. Beats out infielders Beckley, Traynor, Sewell, Doyle based on era dominance and peak. There’s a lot to like. First of all, his career wasn’t too short, with 11.5 seasons of regular play. Players with 1200+ games played at 2B, 1871-1906:
1—2126 B. McPhee
2—1555 K. Gleason
3—1537 F. Pfeffer
4—1454 C. Childs
5—1364 L. Bierbauer
6—1313 B. Lowe
7—1303 J. Quinn
Plus, he was a fabulous leadoff hitter. Players with OBP over .400, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1--.455 B. Hamilton
2--.433 T. Cobb
3--.431 T. Speaker
4--.423 D. Brouthers
5--.421 E. Collins

6--.416 C. Childs
7--.415 J. Burkett
8--.413 R. Thomas
9--.411 E. Delahanty
10--.402 J. Kelley


Joe Sewell – A few spots off the ballot. Perhaps the best shortstop during a down time at the position. I easily prefer Jennings. Maybe Lundy, too. The next generation of shortstops blows him away (Cronin, Wells, Vaughan, Appling). Only 13 years as a regular, 8 at SS (1 more year than Jennings). OPS+ of 120 in just one season.

Jake Beckley falls off as I begin to question the logic of equal positional representation. I see nothing wrong with saying that few of the best players in his day were first basemen, that the talent tended to congregate around shortstop. Being the best of a weak group does not accrue merit to a player, in my analysis. We’re looking for the best ballplayers, regardless of position.
   55. TomH Posted: January 06, 2005 at 06:15 PM (#1060784)
'Bill James ..... ranks him (Sisler) #24 all-time first baseman and one of the “just out of the top 100” players'
-------
well, not quite. Cap Anson is James' 11th ranked first baseman, and he's not in the top 100 either; Sisler is 13 first baseman 'below' Cap, and thus I ssupect would be about #240 on a theoretical WWBD? list.
   56. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 06, 2005 at 06:53 PM (#1060873)
'Bill James ..... ranks him (Sisler) #24 all-time first baseman and one of the “just out of the top 100” players'
-------
well, not quite. Cap Anson is James' 11th ranked first baseman, and he's not in the top 100 either; Sisler is 13 first baseman 'below' Cap, and thus I ssupect would be about #240 on a theoretical WWBD? list.


You're right, Tom. There would be no way that Sisler would be anywhere near his top 100.
   57. DanG Posted: January 06, 2005 at 07:17 PM (#1060939)
Sisler is 13 first baseman 'below' Cap, and thus I ssupect would be about #240 on a theoretical WWBD? list

I did a crude ranking of Bill's lists when the new BJHBA came out and Sisler fell in at #234. And if you add in Negro leaguers it pushes Sisler to around #260.
   58. Al Peterson Posted: January 06, 2005 at 10:35 PM (#1061553)
1942 ballot ready for counting. One new eligible, and he starts with a bang.

1. Bill Terry (-). His run after age 28, while doing a little managing on the side, is very impressive. Excellent hitter, fine fielder, good leader. This surprises me a bit but my system says start him at the top.

2. Rube Waddell (3). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.

3. Jimmy Ryan (4). Let's see: good hitting CF, longish career, decent fielder. Yep, I like that combo.

4. Dazzy Vance (5). If I like Waddell so much you know Vance is going to be ranked high. Toiled on second division Brooklyn teams with minimal help on defense and offense and yet still excelled. He's not one of the HOF mistakes.

5. Dick Redding (7). Just ahead of a couple of white counterparts on the mound.
6. Tommy Leach (8). Comparing to Traynor worked out for Leach actually. All around player - good hitter, good fielder.

7. Hughie Jennings (6). SS with plenty of glove and bat in his prime, albeit for a short stretch of time. Knocked down by a strong class.

8. Bobby Veach (9). Maybe penalized him too harshly in the past due to tough OF competition in his career. Having a hard time seeing Cobb, Heilmann, and Veach in together.

9. Pete Browning (10). Hitter with few rivals. Top 3 in batting average 9 times in 10 years. He hit in whatever league he played in. Star of the AA which is alright - I don't give extreme discounts for that league.

10. Clark Griffith (11). Some tweaks to my pitcher rankings show him moving up amongst the populace. Is he HOM worthy is another question. Fills an era lacking a player or two in the HOM.

11. Eppa Rixey (12). Keeps pitching, and pitching, and pitching...

12. John McGraw (13). Limited playing time but what he did with it is nonetheless outstanding. Positional bump as well. Cons include just not playing enough but was on base all the time when participating.

13. George Sisler (14). The seven-year peak should not be ignored. Average play after his return from injury just padded some statlines. Star college player who was highly sought after by many teams. For those who want to argue over positional dominance for Sewell check out Sisler at 1B early in his career.

14. Edd Roush (15). Still a darn fine CF, just on a slippery slope down my ballot.

15. John Beckwith (16). Him and Beckley are close - I'll pull slightly for the peak over career.

Wanting a shot:

16-20: Beckley, Griffin, Van Haltren, Duffy, Poles
21-25: Childs, Mullane, Bresnahan, Sewell, Willis
26-30: Mendez, Welch, Schang, H Wilson, D Moore
31-35: Tiernan, Taylor, F Jones, Chance, Mays
36-40: Monroe, C Jones, Cravath, Shocker, Dunlap

Top returnees not getting points:

Beckley, Van Haltren, Sewell: All are top 25 so I'm not that far from placing them. Beckley played a long time at a fine level but never made you stand up and say "Wow, I just saw Jake Beckley play". Van Haltren was one of many fine OFs of the 1890s. Sewell has the big fish in a small pond case - top SS during a down time.
   59. Michael Bass Posted: January 07, 2005 at 03:30 AM (#1062281)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

Reconsideration this week, as I incorporate the new WARP changes, and did a serious second look at the early candidates. Big trend is toward pitchers (so much so that I had to reduce their credit a touch). Smaller trend is toward guys with nice primes, over those who are pure peak.

Also, the debut of my PHOM! See the thread for more details. Terry and Vance make it this week.


1. Bill Terry (1942) (new) - Big peak. Strong prime. So much that despite a short career, he's in the mix with the top guys in pure career.

2. Dazzy Vance (1942) (3) - A better Waddell, without the unearned runs issue. And I like Waddell a lot. Monster peak as well as an underrated career.

3. Joe Sewell (9) - Sewell is a big winner in the reconsideration. Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense.

4. Hughie Jennings (1908) (4) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

5. José Méndez (1939) (6) - Very similar to Waddell pitching-wise. His hitting as a pitcher moves him to one spot above him, but he doesn't get credit in my system for his offensive rebirth (I don't think he'd have had it in the big leagues). In my opinion, the single most underrated player by the electorate. Look at the players in the Cuban Leagues when he was dominating. HOMers and HOM candidates all over the place.

6. Rube Waddell (7) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me.

7. John Beckwith (13) - I'm sold enough to move him up above Moore. Longer prime, peak not as great, but very good. Not going higher than this relative position on the ballot though, his defense seems to have been horrible.

8. Clark Griffith (--) - Another big winners in WARP3 changes, as well as the look back at the first 3 decades of the majors. We need more 1890s players. Griffith and Jennings are the two we should be looking at.

9. Dobie Moore (9) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

10. Lave Cross (--) - Another winners in the look back, and a career/prime guy who does well. Having played catcher helps him a lot, as well. For those looking for 3B/C, this is an overlooked guy.

11. Dick Redding (11) - Of similar value to Mendez, but below him because of Mendez's bat, and Redding is a touch lighter on the peak. Moved him down relative to the group; I like him a lot, but I prefer to see a little more domination out of my NL candidates than I saw out of him. I probably need to look again.

12. Bobby Veach (1939) (5) - Loser in the WARP3 changes. Still the best OF on the ballot, but after having been OF heavy for so long, I'm finally starting to back off.

13. Bill Monroe (14) - Was a hell of a hitter in the early days of the organized Negro Leagues, when he was already up in age. Could be vastly underrating him, don't think I'm overrating him. I'd rather have him than Grant.

14. Fred Dunlap (--) - Jumps up onto my ballot. Only really 7 good years, but what a 7 years. Only this low because the 80s are so well represented already. .300 EQA + great defense at second base, even when 2B was behind 3B on the spectrum, is ballot worthy, especially for peak/prime voters.

15. Fielder Jones (15) - This was almost N/Ed Williamson, but I decided I got a little carried away on the ramping up of the dual-named one. Jones is consistently high every time I do a reconsideration. Yet I still try to find ways to move him down. Maybe I should stop with that, and just accept that he was a really, really good player.

PHOMers not on my ballot (taken from past ballots and past systems, that I somewhat regret now):

27. Jimmy Ryan (1930)
38. Mike Griffin (1932)
39. Hugh Duffy (1931)


Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Leach - I want to like him. I really do. I just can't. Not enough offense, too much center field.

Sisler - A winner in my reconsideration. Just not enough of one. Peak, except for the one monster year, wasn't as great as people seem to think.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. Would be a terrible choice for election.

Van Haltren - Way down on my ballot. I'd much prefer Jimmy Ryan, who also is not on my ballot. Also would prefer Poles, Duffy, Griffin. And of course Bobby Veach, who I think was the best of all these guys. And that's just the outfielders.
   60. KJOK Posted: January 07, 2005 at 04:39 AM (#1062440)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. .THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

2. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane/Dickey, except for maybe Santop. Still best eligible catcher.

4. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

5. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

6. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

7. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

8. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

9. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

10. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons blow away Beckley’s best. Perhaps best firstbaseman in the whole 1900-1920 time period.

11. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. If Chance isn’t the best firstbaseman 1900-1920’s, then Taylor probably is. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

12. BILL TERRY, 1B. .674 OWP. 302 RCAP. 7,111 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. He’s Frank Chance with 3 very mediocre seasons added.

13. PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

14.DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

15. BUZZ ARLETT, LF/RF. Probably the greatest PCL hitter ever, and also had at least 2 great IL seasons. If he hadn’t broken his thumb, may have been given the opportunity to put up great MLB numbers (which he did in half a season). I think he’s very comparable to Pete Browning/Lip Pike – a great hitter with questionable defense.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:
NEWBIES:

TRAVIS JACKSON, SS. .503 OWP. 6,679 PA’s. DEF: Very Good. Very close to Bancroft, but needs either a little more offense or EXCELLENT defense to make ballot.

RETURNEES:

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

DAVE BANCROFT, SS. .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Much better hitter than Maranville. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber. Just off the ballot.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

DAZZY VANCE, P. 251 RSAA, 185 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 125 ERA+ in 2,966 innings. Just slightly behind Waddell.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

LARRY DOYLE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times. Hit like Ken Williams, only played longer and played 2B.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being much higher.

BURLEIGH GRIMES, P. 129 RSAA, 175 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 107 ERA+ in 4,180 innings. Less value than even Quinn.
   61. Rob_Wood Posted: January 07, 2005 at 05:51 AM (#1062649)
My 1942 ballot:

1. Dazzy Vance -- great strikeout pitcher
2. Eppa Rixey -- very good pitcher for a long time
3. Bill Terry -- came in higher than I anticipated
4. Jake Beckley -- very good first baseman
5. Joe Sewell -- great shortstop
6. Hack Wilson -- luv those HRs and RBIs (seriously)
7. Edd Roush -- very good center fielder
8. George Sisler -- great half career
9. Larry Doyle -- very good second baseman
10. Pie Traynor -- now underrated in sabr circles
11. Rabbit Maranville -- enuf very good seasons
12. Rube Waddell -- luv those strikeouts
13. Addie Joss -- luv that whip and ERA
14. Cupid Childs -- very good early 2B star
15. George Van Haltren -- makes my ballot again

Players in group top 10 not on my ballot: I have voted for Clark Griffith and may again on a weaker ballot; Hughie Jennings is not my cup of tea (I am largely a career value proponent); like Griffith I have voted for Tommy Leach and hope to again.
   62. Brent Posted: January 07, 2005 at 06:56 AM (#1062789)
1942 Ballot:

I guess I’m one of the few voters who believes there were two strong, albeit not stunning, new candidates showing up this year, one a solid first baseman, the other arguably the greatest minor league star ever.

1. Dazzy Vance –
As good a choice as anyone as the best pitcher of the 20s.

2. Hughie Jennings –
According to WS, one of the best defensive SS of all time, and I believe it. Better peak than most HOMers.

3. Burleigh Grimes –
Ron Wargo in post # 14 makes the case pretty well.

4. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

5. José de la Caridad Méndez –
Cuban Baseball: A Statistical History, 1878-1961 by Jorge S. Figueredo (my Christmas gift to myself this year) lists the Cuban League all-time leaders in winning percentage:

José Méndez .731
Ray Brown .696
Carlos Royer .677
Martin Dihigo .656
Camilo Pascual .644

6. Bill Terry –
I’ve been an HOM voter since 1931, and this is the first election in which a first baseman has come along for whom I didn’t have to say, “Yes, but...” Terry could hit, he could field, he had a nice peak and a decent length career. His teams won three pennants and were almost always competitive. A solid but unspectacular choice for the HOM.

7. Buzz Arlett –
We all knew he wouldn’t have hit .341 with 450 home runs in the majors, but why should it be so hard to believe that he would have hit .310 with 291 homers?

Since most of the players he’s being compared to had two or three good years in the minors before establishing themselves in the majors, in evaluating Arlett I dropped his 1918 and 1919 seasons and gave only half credit for 1920. He wouldn’t have made it to my ballot purely as an outfielder – I see him as similar to, but not quite as good as Cravath and Tiernan. But when you add one and a half seasons as a 30-win share pitcher, I believe he legitimately qualifies.

Sorry that my first try at doing his MLEs turned out to be a little flaky, but I’ve got a lot more confidence in the second iteration.

8. Spottswood Poles –
In the 1931 election, Poles appeared on 25 of 53 ballots and placed 17th. In 1941 he appeared on 3 ballots and placed 44th, and I really wish I knew why. As far as I am aware, no new information has been posted about him over the last 10 “years.” Other similarly ranked candidates have dropped back a bit, but none has fallen off the cliff like he has. I hope this isn’t a symptom that our voting is being driven by herd behavior or attention effects.

9. Roger Bresnahan –
His peak towers over Schang’s.

10. Tommy Leach –
6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey and Sheckard.

11. Clark Griffith –
Outstanding pitcher from 1895-99; good pitcher, albeit with a lighter load, in 1894, 1900-01, and 1903.

12. George J. Burns –
Outstanding leadoff hitter; 3 seasons with 30+ WS.

13. Urban Shocker –
14. Fielder Jones –
15. Vic Willis –

Three underappreciated players.

Dropping off:

Dick Redding –
I haven’t done a systematic analysis of his case, but I feel like I keep getting hints that he may not have been as good as I originally thought. I’ll look at him some more and see what I can come up with.

Other new arrivals:

Firpo Marberry –
I’m still working on a system for evaluating relief pitchers, but for now I have him placed at # 44. He was historically significant, but not really comparable in value to the pitchers that appear on my ballot.

Tom Zachary, Travis Jackson and Fred Lindstrom –

Of this group I like Lindstrom the best, but none of them make my top 50.

Top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
I have him at # 16. Sorry, FOER, but I think 15 other players are better.

Joe Sewell –
I have him at # 32. I don’t believe in grading on a curve.

George Sisler –
# 29. He’s one outstanding season short of making my ballot.

Jake Beckley –
Not in my top 50. Undistinguished.

John Beckwith –
The Beckwith pot appears to be near boiling, but I’d like to make a plea to let it simmer a while longer.

I greatly appreciate and admire the work that Gadfly, Chris Cobb, KJOK, Gary A, and others have contributed in gathering data, analyzing, and interpreting it. But I also greatly respect experts like Holway and Riley who have devoted years to study of the Negro Leagues, and I am troubled by the disparate interpretations of Beckwith’s career that we receive from these sources.

I’ve always found Chris’s ML projections to be very helpful, but they need to be checked and prodded, just as my own Arlett projections need to be. In Beckwith’s case there are some technical features, such as the influence of an extreme park factor in 1922, that may merit further inspection. (For example, I noticed in the data that Gary A posted last night that the park effects for Schorling Park jump around quite a bit from year to year).

I’m concerned about the dissonance between the rosy biography presented by Gadfly and the decidedly negative biography of Riley.

I think voters have perhaps been too quick to dismiss character issues, especially to the extent that they may have affected team performance. Ty Cobb’s behavior could sometimes be abhorrent, but the Tigers never gave him an unconditional release in mid-season as the Homestead Grays are reported to have done with Beckwith (according to Riley).

If we can resolve some of these issues, I’m willing to give my support to Beckwith, but his is the most complicated case before us, and I would be more comfortable if we took a few more “years” to consider it.
   63. SWW Posted: January 07, 2005 at 07:10 AM (#1062818)
Wow. The new year promises to be hellaciously busy. But hey, a man’s gotta fulfill his responsibility to a voluntary online athletic statistical analysis experiment, doesn’t he?

1942 Ballot
1) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
He seems like he should be all peak, but he’s still a right-decent ballplayer when you look at his non-prime years. I like the balance.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My assessment seems to be uniquely high, but the sheer amount of black and gray ink he racked up works heavily in his favor. And in a fairly durable career, as well.
3) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
4) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”

A pair of long, flourish-free careers. The HOF Standards and Monitor stats are useful in tracking the difference between a merely long career, and one that measures up over the long run. Rice does exceptionally well here, but Beckley’s pretty good, too.
5) Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. This placement is cautiously low.
6) Hugh Duffy
It’s hard to believe that he once ranked as high as 5th in the voting. When calculating prime vs. career, Duffy’s actually a lot more balanced than I expected. Prime is less than half of career. That was a surprise.
7)Carl William Mays
After Burleigh, there’s a real mollybang of great-but-not-outstanding pitchers. Carl is still benefiting by favorable analyses from James Vail and Bill James, as well as an enviable peak. Not a lot of love for Carl, though. And I gather that’s never been Carl’s strong suit.
8) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
My numbers like him better than Childs. I thought that was due to career length, but they have a similar peak, and Doyle has a slightly higher prime. So I’ll stick with Larry.
9)Clarence Arthur Vance – “Dazzy”
I wasn’t enchanted by his career Win Shares, but his extraordinary Black & Grey Ink, couple with a number of appearance in the league’s Top 10 WS, earns my respect.
10)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
Tommy’s first appearance in the top ten is a heartening development. His low Monitor and Standards scores concern me, but the similarity to Jimmy Sheckard is instructive.
11) Edd J Roush
Nice all-around numbers, and several MVP-type seasons. He’s not flashy, but I think he deserves a little more credit than he’s getting. And by putting him down here, I’m clearly not helping. Oh, and I know now not to put the period after the J. My bad.
12) Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
His projected numbers seem to put him squarely in the middle of a pitcher glut. He does well in James Vail’s review, as well.
13) William Harold Terry
Not dissimilar from Sisler, but not quite as much ink. Best comp is Don Mattingly. Hmm.
14) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
He keeps hanging in there. I’d feel better if he had a little better winning percentage. But that’s a lot of wins he did rack up.
15)Harry Bartholomew Hooper
Bouncing back, just ahead of Traynor and Beckwith. He looks similar to Rice, but doesn’t measure up nearly as well in the final numbers. Still has some impressive WS and WARP numbers.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
Hack Wilson has a similar career arc, with a better career, and he’s not here. Basically, the peak is outstanding, but not so much so that it overshadows the fact that the peak is the entire career. Five-year prime is over 70% of career. Ouch.
Clark Calvin Griffith
What can I say: I’ve got six pitchers ahead of him. His is an interesting mix, but the overall picture is not outstanding one way or the other.
   64. Kelly in SD Posted: January 07, 2005 at 11:55 AM (#1063145)
1942 Ballot

System: Win shares in 3 straight years – peak. Win shares in best 7 years – prime. Win shares per 648 plate appearances. For pitchers it is win shares per 300 innings pitched if the career was after 1893. Win shares in career. the first, second, and fourth are adjusted for season length. Prime is weighted the heaviest, then peak, then career and seasonal are about the same. Also, I factor in times being best in league at one’s position and one’s competition. I factor in black ink and grey ink. I rely heavily on the NeL threads and figures to get a feel for players and then try to find a comparable player that we have full stats for.

1. Mickey Welch: To recap: His career record against Hall of Merit pitchers: 61-34
It seems to me the most popular reason not to vote for Welch is his ERA+ is not as good as other pitchers from his time. I thought I would take a look at what could cause this and what this difference actually meant.
First, the defensive support:
Number of times he pitched for a team that max’d out its defensive win shares: once
Number of time other HoM pitchers had similar defenisve support:
Ward: twice - 1880, 1882
Galvin: twice - 1879, 1885
Keefe: four - 1883, 1884, 1885, 1892
Radbourn: five - 1882, 1883, 1884, 1889, 1890
Clarkson: eight - 1885, 1886, 1887, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1892 (both teams he pitched for this year), 1894
Caruthers: five - 1884, 1885, 1886, 1887, 1888
Rusie: once – 1894

This may have something to do with why Galvin and Welch had such lower ERA+ than other Keefe, Radbourn, Clarkson, or Caruthers.
Second, what does the ERA+ difference mean?
For example, Radbourn had a 2.67 career ERA in leagues with a composite 3.21 ERA for an ERA+ of 120. Welch, 2.71 in 3.06 leagues for an ERA+ of 113. So adjusting to Radbourn’s ERA context Welch would have an ERA of 2.84. Over 450 innings that difference is 8.5 earned runs.
Keefe’s 125 based on 2.62 in 3.28 leagues? Welch would have an ERA of 2.90. Over 450 innings that is a difference of 14 earned runs.
Clarkson’s 134 based on 2.81 in 3.75? Welch would have an ERA of 3.32. Over 450 innings that is a difference of 25.5 earned runs.
Now look again at the times each pitcher had defensive support that max’d out.
Obviously, it was not all defensive support that made the difference. But, put each pitcher in front of the same defense and their numbers will be closer together.
To look at it slightly differently cut the earned runs difference per their average season of 450 innings into today’s era with 225 innings pitched. Radbourn would allow just over 4 earned runs fewer than Welch, Keefe – 7, and Clarkson – 13. So when you say you can’t vote for Welch because he has a 113 ERA+, does that mean you can’t vote for him because of literally a handful of runs a season?

2. Charley Jones: I give full credit for the 2 and one-sixth black-balled years. 4th in peak (Jennings, Browning, Duffy), 1st in prime, 7th in per season, 4th in career (behind Van Haltren, Ryan, Beckley). 4 times a Win Shares all-star, 3 times best in majors. 5 times a STATS all-star. OPS+ of 149 is 3rd (Browning, Cravath). Adjusted for season length, 9 20 ws seasons, 6 - 25+, 4 - 30+ and that is without giving credit for the missing years. 8th in black ink, 4th in grey ink. 8th most pennants added.

3. Pete Browning: Prime – 2nd behind Jones. Peak – 2nd behind Jennings. Season – 4th behind Chance, Cravath, Bresnahan. 5 times a win shares all-star, 2 times majors. 8 times STATS all-star. OPS+162 is 12 points better than next highest among eligibles – Cravath. Only Duffy and Van Haltren have more pennants added.

4. Hugh Duffy: Prime – 3rd (Jones, Browning). Peak – 3rd (Jennings, Browning). Career – 8th. Excellent defensive center fielder on one of the best defensive teams ever. Rates at an A+ with 4 gold gloves. Only Van Haltren has more pennants added. 5 times a Win Shares all-star. Only Cravath has more black ink.

5. George Van Haltren: Career – Best. Prime – 4th (Jones, Browning, Burns). What hurts him is his peak and seasonal numbers. 12 years with 20+ win shares. Adjust for season length and 9 are over 25. 2 times win shares league and majors all-star.

6. Jose Mendez: Moved down from 3rd where raw NeL translations put him in order to be cautious. If the translations are valid, only Redding and Waddell had comparable peaks (and Grove and Dean now that they are retired). Only Willis had a comparable prime. (plus Grove, Redding, and Ferrell). I am not sure about how far I trust the conversions, but if Mendez is supposed to be one of the top NeL/Cuban pitchers then this spot feels right.

7. Spots Poles: I am a little more comfortable with the translations for hitters. But I am a little hesitant about to mix in translations done with attempted park factors and those without. The seasons in the NeL were so short there can definitely be a sample size issue. Long consistent career with a peak similar to Van Haltren and a prime similar to George Burns and Van Haltren. And a career total behind only Van Haltren.
   65. Kelly in SD Posted: January 07, 2005 at 11:57 AM (#1063146)
8. Cupid Childs: Biggest move up from raw numbers. Numbers see him as the best second baseman eligible along with Dobie Moore. Best second baseman in majors 1890-1896. Also had 2 second bests afterward. If you want to discount his 1890 season in the American Association where he was the best player in the league, but even with a discount, he was the best second basemen in the game. Hub Collins had 3 fewer win shares in the National League – which lost most of its best players to the Players League also. The best in the Players League had 11 fewer. Tenth in prime.

9. George Burns: Steps back in front of Roush this time. 4th in prime (Jones, Browning, Duffy). 5th in peak (Jennings, Jones, Browning, Duffy). 5 times all-star and 3 times majors by win-shares. Great lead-off man (who have definitely been overlooked). 3rd in black ink (Cravath and Duffy). 13th in grey ink. 10 years with 20+ win shares.

10. Edd Roush: 11th in prime, 9th in peak, 10th in season. 9th in career. A solid to excellent player for a long period of time. An A- defender with 5 gold glvoes. 5 times a win shares all-star. 9 seasons with 20+ win shares.

11: Hughie Jennings: Best peak. 6th best prime (and I set my prime at 7 years in order to avoid primes that were too short – maybe it should have been 8...). An A+ shortstop for one of the 2 best teams of the 1890s. 4 times best in league, 4 times best in majors.

12. Tommy Leach: Great career – 5th highest. 13th in prime. Fantastic defender. An A+ 3rd baseman who moved to center after an arm injury and played A+ defense there as well getting 2 gold gloves at third and 5 in center. See him as instrumental along with Wagner in the Pirates ability to get great pitching seasons from just about everybody from 1900-1915.

13. Dick Redding: Based on pitching numbers only. Peak and prime not as high as Mendez though he did pitch quite a bit more innings. Moved down several spots because of worry about there being too much peak in the translations.

14. Dobie Moore: See him as similar in career shape to Jennings. Very high peak and prime. Career shortened by injuries at one end. This is where he ranks without any credit for the army years. See he and Childs as the best second base available (sorry Doyle and Monroe)

15. Wilbur Cooper: I have Griffith, Waddell, Mays and him in a tight little knot. Picked Cooper despite him having the great defensive support (though Mays had better). Liked the consistency and the 5 times league all-star (only Grimes and Rixey have more). Similar peak to every pitcher except for Waddell. 9 times 20+ win shares – no other eligible has as many.
   66. Kelly in SD Posted: January 07, 2005 at 12:02 PM (#1063147)
Where are they?
John Beckwith – Before the park adjustments, he was 30th. After the park adjustments 9th. Without having park adjustments for the other NeL’ers I did not feel right about boosting Beckwith that much. For me, he epitomizes the talent/numbers dichotomy of the Negro Leagues. Gadfly and other say he had 40-50 homerun ability. His real numbers in league play show a little over 20 per 550. I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Eppa Rixey: Ranks 12th among pitchers in my system (not including pre 1893 ones). Weak peak, weak prime. All he has is innings. He wasn’t even the big man on his staffs. Those would be Alexander (no shame there), Luque, and Donahue (sp?). Only plus is 6 times a win shares all-star. Rube Waddell: Strikeouts – meh. If the strikeouts were so valuable because they prevented balls from being put into play where errors could be made, why did he allow more unearned runs than expected? Shouldn’t he have allowed fewer because there were fewer balls in play and therefore fewer errors should have been made behind him? Just thinking out loud here. No doubt about the talent, just not enough results to get on my ballot.

Clark Griffith: Not enough big years. 2 years is not enough (unless your name is Red Faber...). I think it took a lot longer for pitchers’ arms and managerial strategy to adapt to the 60’6” distance. Other than Young and Nichols there were no other pitchers who could handle league-leading totals year after year. I think managers and pitchers did not realize that it was not healthy for the arm to pitch as much as they did. For one or two years, arms could handle it, but then Poof. For many pitchers in the 1890s, they had to learn to throw at a longer distance – relearn how to throw a breaking pitch, etc, after their arms had matured AND while being asked to pitch huge numbers of innings.
Griffith was not asked to pitch these huge totals and so he stayed healthy and got to put up very good career totals. He is close to my ballot (along with Willis, he was one of the last cut).

Vic Willis: dropped off ballot. Thought he was getting too much of a boost in career value because of the innings he pitched and I was not able to tell how much of his value are due to the innings he pitched due to the time when he played compared to the innings eaters of the 20s/30s. Since I don’t know if any of them belong, Willis has to wait to be reconsidered.

Dazzy Vance: probably going in, but not because of this ballot. Again, another great talent who when healthy was amazing, but had difficulty staying healthy. My system does not have much regard for individual great seasons as opposed to a 3 year peak. Vance’s peak is very weak by this measure. And because of the injuries, his prime is not very strong compared to the rest of the eligibles from the same era. I know he had lousy run support and defensive support, but are we really sure he is the most deserving of the late teens – early 30s cohort (other than Faber and Coveleski already in. Also, Grove's career started just 3 years after Vance established himself. And Ted Lyons was going strong by the mid 20s as well).

Joe Sewell: Hell, he has the name recognition to float on in with Vance this election. I just don’t see it. Yeah, he was most consistent shortstop whose career centered on the 1920s. Well, we might as well elect Jack Morris with that reasoning. Jennings’ peak makes him much more valuable than Sewell. Tinker and Jennings have better seasonal rates; Maranville has by far better career win shares; Jennings Long Bancroft and Tinker have a better peak; and Jennings has a better prime. Oh, defensively, he and Bancroft were the only eligibles who were not A+ fielders (Travis Jackson does not count despite what Frisch has to say.)
Take a look at the shortstop all-star list I posted and you’ll see that the 1920s were the decade that required the LEAST amount of achievement to be the league’s best shortstop. I have yet to see any justification for including Sewell and none of Bancroft, Long, Tinker, or Maranville.
   67. Kelly in SD Posted: January 07, 2005 at 12:08 PM (#1063154)
Lastly,
In an effort to get the Bill Terry train derailed before it gets to the station...

Terry/Sisler/Chance/Fournier/Konetchy/Beckley/Taylor: Look, a series of firstbasemen who were the best in their leagues 4-7 times and best in the majors 0-5 times. Chance has the best seasonal production of any eligible player (30.8 per 648 PA). Terry had a oh so slight edge in prime and peak. He was the 3rd best during his career (Gehrig and Foxx). And before there is another post that those guys are not the standard, Terry is so much closer to Sisler/Chance/ et al., than he is to Gehrig/Foxx/ABC there is no way I could possibly justify having him on the ballot and not any of the others.
Terry has 1 win share more for peak over Sisler and 3 over Fournier. His prime is just 2 more than Sisler. His seasonal rank is tied with Fournier for second behind Chance (5 behind). Today, I would rank them Sisler, Chance, Konetchy, Fournier, Terry. Wait a day and they’ll reverse. They are like the same guy playing for almost 30 years.
More on Terry (SHINY NEW TOY):
Win Shares – career / 3 yr / 7 yr / season
F Chance: 237 / 89 / 177 / 30.8
Fournier: 231 / 90 / 178 / 25.4
Konetchy: 287 / 77 / 171 / 22.1
G Sisler: 292 / 89 / 189 / 21.5
B Terry: 278 / 93 / 197 / 25.8

BP stuff: WARP1 / BRAR / EQA / BRAR per 450 outs
F Chance: 72.5 / 445 / .308 / 61.3
Fournier: 67.4 / 534 / .309 / 62.8
Konetchy: 102.2 / 556 / .288 / 42.8
G Sisler: 87.2 / 596/ .291 / 45.9
B Terry: 95.9 / 604 / .308 / 61.8

All-Stars: STATS/ WS league / WS majors
F Chance: 6 / 6 / 4
Fournier: 4 / 5 / 4
Konetchy: 4 / 7/ 4
G Sisler: 6 / 6 / 5
B Terry: 4 / 6 / 0

Yeah, Terry just jumps out you as the obvious one of the five to be enshrined in the Hall of Merit. Oh, and if you want to add two of his contemporaries plus 2 near-contemporaries to see players that jump out at you:
Win Shares – career / 3 yr / 7 yr / season
Gehrig: 489 / 118 / 278 / 33.1
J Foxx: 435 / 113 / 245 / 29.3
J Mize: 338 / 95 / 222 / 29.8 (no credit for 3 yrs in WWII)
Greenberg: 267 / 91 / 218 / 28.5 (no credit for 4.5 yrs in military)

BP stuff: WARP1 / BRAR / EQA / BRAR per 450 outs
Gehrig: 159.8 / 1309 / .351 / 107.2
J Foxx: 147.8 / 1090 / .333 / 87.2
J Mize: 104.6 / 776 / .325 / 78.4
Greenberg: 90.2 / 650 / .327 / 80.6

All-Stars: STATS/ WS league / WS majors
Gehrig: 8 / 9 / 9
J Foxx: 6 / 6 / 4
J Mize: 7 / 8 / 5
Greenberg: 4 / 2 / 2

Jake Beckley: With my system, his lack of big years is just deadly to him. On the other hand, he did have 10 seasons of 20+ win shares (adjusted for season length). The problem is that even after adjusting for season length, he never reached 25 win shares.
   68. robc Posted: January 07, 2005 at 02:28 PM (#1063208)

I have yet to see any justification for including Sewell and none of Bancroft, Long, Tinker, or Maranville.


Well, I have Sewell high on my ballot and Maranville low on it, so maybe I dont quite qualify, but here is a "justification". In the chart below I used your definition of peak and prime, only with W3 instead of WS. I also included career W1, to show that Sewell is getting the biggest benefit from the group of the W1->W3 adjustment. I havent finished completely integrating the newest Warp numbers into my system, but Sewell may drop a spot or two and Maranville move up, but Sewell will still be ahead of him.

Name:           Warp1:  Warp3:  Peak:   Prime:
Sewell          102.6   88.5    27.5    60.9
Long            108.5   66.7    22.0    42.6
Bancroft        111.1   77.1    22.4    49.6
Maranville      134.7   89.0    20.4    47.3
Tinker          112.7   72.5    21.3    46.3
   69. Dolf Lucky Posted: January 07, 2005 at 04:18 PM (#1063324)
1 (3)Dazzy Vance--Wicked peak. I like the comps to Waddell. These were dominant pitchers, period.

2 (-)Bill Terry--It's a fairly weak ballot, but Terry's in the 90-95 percentile in this group in career, peak, and prime.

3 (7)Joe Sewell--Not too far behind the top 2.

4 (6)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

5 (5)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

6 (9)Donie Bush--Gets extra points for being a top-notch leadoff type.

7 (-)Burleigh Grimes--There's a new WARP adjustment, and Grimes appears to be the big winner, placing his career above other pitchers not named Vance. Obviously, not as peak-heavy as some of the others, and there were certainly some below-average seasons thrown in here, but I think that doesn't hurt a pitcher as much as it does a hitter.

8 (15)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

9 (13)Eddie Cicotte--Career and peak numbers synch up fairly closely to Waddell, but Cicotte lacked the dominance.

10 (4)Roger Bresnahan--The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing).

11 (11)Duke Farrell--Catchers are by far the most underrepresented position right now, and Farrell makes it on as a result.

12 (10)George J Burns--Burns is rising to the top of the OF glut based on a better peak.

13 (-)Carl Mays--Still pretty iffy on him, and I could be convinced that 6 pitchers on this ballot is too much.

14 (8)Bobby Veach--Seems to be basically identical to Burns.

15 (-)Del Pratt--Compared to the Rice/Hooper glut below, Pratt has better peak + prime, and has 85-90% of the career at a "rarer" position. That seems more meritorious to me.

Dropping out: Hughie Jennings, Pie Traynor

Top 10 omissions: Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings, and Tommy Leach are all in my 16-25 group and could easily find their way back on to a ballot in the near future.
Jake Beckley and Eppa Rixey likely lack the requisite peak to make any future ballots.
   70. Chris Cobb Posted: January 07, 2005 at 04:50 PM (#1063384)
Brent and Kelly from SD have raised some questions about Beckwith's career and the MLE translations. I've responded in detail on the Beckwith thread.
   71. Philip Posted: January 07, 2005 at 07:47 PM (#1063817)
1. Vance (5) – Great pitcher in the Covaleski-mold.
2. Griffith (5-3-2-2-3) – Covaleski with a little less peak.

3. Terry (new) – Best first baseman on the ballot since a while.
4. Leach (7-5-3-4) – Another infielder who is greatly underrated. Should rate close to Groh but probably doesn’t get the positional boost Groh is getting. Similar career to Ryan/VH comes out ahead when taking into account his time at third base. Makes my pHoM this year.
5. Mendez (8-6-5-5-6) – Great peak, a little more career and he would be a clear HOMer. Now he is still a borderline candidate.
6. Rixey (6-6-7) – Borderline, I see him even with Mendez.
7. Van Haltren (9-7-7-7-8) – Made my pHoM a few years ago and was probably the last of the 19th century to do so.
8. Shocker (11-8-8-8-9) – Typical 10’s/20’s pitcher who makes my ballot based on his great peak. Underrated by this group.
9. Ryan (10-10-10-9-10) – Nearly identical to VH.

10. Redding (13-11-11-10-11) – Using Chris Cobb’s Win Share estimates, he rates very similar to Cooper.
11. Cooper (14-12-12-11-12) – Steadily rising in my ranking. Still have to see if he stood out enough from his pears to remain so high.

12. C. Jones (15-13-13-12-13) – Every now and then Ol’ Charlie reappears on my ballot. Jones leads a large group of very good players who I don’t feel are HoM-worthy.
13. Roush (14-14-13-14) – See #13
14. Hooper (15-15-14-15) – See #13
15. Long – It’s difficult to get thing sorted out after number 12. Long makes it back again. Still believe he is underrated by the group, though not a Homer.
   72. OCF Posted: January 07, 2005 at 08:59 PM (#1064013)
11 (11)Duke Farrell--Catchers are by far the most underrepresented position right now, and Farrell makes it on as a result.

Will the day come when ballot counters will have to cope with Duke Farrell, Rick Ferrell, and Wes Ferrell all at the same time?
   73. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 07, 2005 at 09:23 PM (#1064078)
Will the day come when ballot counters will have to cope with Duke Farrell, Rick Ferrell, and Wes Ferrell all at the same time?

Thank God we don't have to wory about Will Ferrell, Mike Farrell or the Farrelly brothers popping up on a ballot. :-)
   74. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 07, 2005 at 09:52 PM (#1064162)
Bob O'Farrell is eligible isnt' he?
   75. Howie Menckel Posted: January 08, 2005 at 02:47 AM (#1064750)
1942 ballot, which is our 45th.

Last chance for a lot of these guys (all of them?) to ever make it.
See today's note on the 1942 ballot thread about the dearth of 1894-1903 selections so far.

1. CLARK GRIFFITH - His era clearly is underrepresented on the hill AND it was a time of rough competition, a double bonus which boosts him back to No. 1 this year. It's remarkable how much better his W-L was than the teams he pitched for. I think he was a brilliant strategist long before he became a manager, and it showed in his pitching.
2. GEORGE SISLER - A positional bonus gives him the slot by a nose. I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.

3. HUGHIE JENNINGS - A four-year megastar is better than entire careers of most of these balloteers, but one year short of an "elect me" slot. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
4. TOMMY LEACH - The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'
5. CUPID CHILDS - Jumps up five slots this year. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot. But I can't say I'm sure he belongs.
6. EPPA RIXEY - If only he had one huge year. But a very nice long career slots him here. Pretty baffled that Faber got in immediately while Rixey may never make it.
7. JOHN BECKWITH - His thread has boosted him onto my ballot, but I'm still not all the way sold on him. A great player for a time and glad to see him get some deserved props, though.
8. MICKEY WELCH - Slips a few slots this year in the "gay 90s" revival (hey, hey...). If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
9. DICK REDDING - Yes, 4th SP in the top 9. Definitely should be on more ballots, although the pitching pool is now remarkably deep.
10. JAKE BECKLEY - Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? I'm finally convinced that he really wasn't quite as good as Keeler after all, but he can still grab a ballot spot in this bunch.
11. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Not quite Faber, and thus not quite Rixey, either. Sort of Beckley and Rice-like, isn't he?
12. PETE BROWNING - Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time. Has been discounted too much for AA numbers, and I'm not a big AA fan at all.
13. LARRY DOYLE - Second time on my ballot. Awesome hitting stats for a 2B; with a little longer career and decent fielding, he'd be a HOMer.
14. GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Seems very similar to Beckley, only he's an OF and not a 1B. Pitching helps, not quite enough. Still, I'm softening a little - finally back on my ballot.
15. JOE SEWELL - Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting. We've already elected a lot of SSs, let's see if he measures up to a new crop of them. But status as best SS most years earns him a place on the ballot.

CLOSE, NO CIGAR
CARL MAYS - Intriguing, but only threw 200 IP nine times and wasn't always smokin' in the other years either. Maybe with one more 20 W, 130 ERA+ year....
VIC WILLIS - Nearly got first vote ever from me last year, but here come another truckload of pitchers. Tracks very closely with our other top pitchers; like Mays needed one more quality season to get big points, probably not a HOMer.
JOSE MENDEZ - Outside chance he had enough peak to be a legit HOMer, but part of me suspects he didn't quite do it for long enough. Still worth strong consideration, but I'm already pitcher-heavy this year.
RUBE WADDELL - Not a HOMer; the 'anti-Welch' was Mark Fidrych with a longer but not-long-enough career. Strikeouts are an indicator of ability, not production.
PIE TRAYNOR - Reached 120 OPS+ only twice. Long career for a 3B, but tough competition for INF slots right now. Probably better than the 29th slot he occupies.
DAZZY VANCE - Wildly, wildly overrated by the crowd. Three incredible years, but only reached 120 ERA+ four times. Can't imagine anyone picking him ahead of Hughie Jennings.
   76. Paul Wendt Posted: January 08, 2005 at 08:10 PM (#1065724)
Brent #62 re Beckwith
I noticed in the data that Gary A posted last night that the park effects for Schorling Park jump around quite a bit from year to year.

I haven't looked at the data so I don't know that this pertains to Gary A's park factors.

My intuitions about park factors are shaped by Pete Palmer's three-year BPF and PPF. Single-season park factors by anyone's method look unusually variable to me. KJOK may know whether three years or one year has become standard.
   77. favre Posted: January 08, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1065965)
1.John Beckwith
2.Jake Beckley
3.Clark Griffith

I am jumping on the Beckwith bandwagon. Chris Cobb and Gary A. have done an excellent job at presenting his case. At worst, he was a great hitting 3B/SS with around 280 career WS; more likely his total WS are somewhere between 325-250. As others have mentioned, he is very comparable to Dick Allen.

I understand why Beckley is as welcome to peak voters as the Dixie Chicks would be at the Republican National Convention. But I’m not really a peak voter, and Jake’s a good career pick. He has 316 unadjusted Win Shares, which modified for schedule length would be, what, 330-340 WS? Not a lock, but hardly an embarrassment to the HoM. His WARP3 career score is good (87.1). He had 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. His career grey ink is good, and he has very good counting stats; I know we have to take the 90s level of offense into account, but 2900 hits/1600runs/1500 RBI certainly doesn’t discourage me from putting him high on the ballot. His era is underrepresented as it is, and I can’t imagine inducting another first baseman who played between 1897 and 1915. I’m sold.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

4.Tommy Leach
5.Eppa Rixey

Leach has 324 career WS. We’ve elected every position player with more career Win Shares except Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s WS (344) are distorted by his pitching stint. He played near flawless CF/3B and hit in a low offense era.

Rixey 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, Jack Powell, and Roger Clemens (for the moment) are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

6.Dazzy Vance
7.George Sisler

Short careers, but outstanding primes—well, Sisler’s career wasn’t that short, but he was not particularly effective after 1922. They complement each other quite well: Sisler was done after age 29, and Vance’s career did not take off until age 30. I’m more impressed by Vance, who pitched monster seasons in a high-scoring era.

8.Edd Roush
9.Rube Waddell

I’m surprised that I have this Roush this high; I thought he would end up near the CF glut off the ballot. He was clearly one of the best players in the NL from 1917-1921—an impressive prime, even with a small NL discount-- and was a good player from ’23-26.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

10.Ned Williamson
11.Hugh Jennings
12.Pete Browning
13.Cupid Childs
14.Wally Schang
15.Larry Doyle

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better. Doyle was a similar hitter to Chids, but has more questions about his defense. If you give Browning a healthy AA discount (obviously a matter of contention), then he was a comparable player to Sam Thompson: relatively short career, not much defense, but a very good hitter.

26. Joe Sewell Does not compare well to other shortsops in the HoM. I’m not convinced he was better than John Beckwith or Dick Lundy.

32. Bill Terry Good hitter who played in an era with high batting averages. I simply can’t see putting Terry above Frank Chance or even Ed Konetchy, and neither are on my ballot.
   78. KJOK Posted: January 09, 2005 at 08:16 AM (#1067136)
My intuitions about park factors are shaped by Pete Palmer's three-year BPF and PPF. Single-season park factors by anyone's method look unusually variable to me. KJOK may know whether three years or one year has become standard.

The easy answer is no, there really is no standard, and the "right" standard probably depends on what you're trying to measure.

For a project such as this, I would say that 1 year park factors are generally the correct ones to use as what you really want to know is how the park impacted offense THAT PARTICULAR SEASON, not in the seasons before or after.

If you want to try to come up with a PREDICTIVE park factor (such as for 2005), the best method seems to be using the last 3 years REGRESSED around 25% to the mean.

HOWEVER, for leagues such as the Negro leagues, where we don't have much of a sample size (maybe 30 games a year in a home park) I wouldn't use just one year, but would use as many years I could find, at least until we have enough seasons of data to do more analysis...
   79. KJOK Posted: January 09, 2005 at 08:23 AM (#1067145)
(For example, I noticed in the data that Gary A posted last night that the park effects for Schorling Park jump around quite a bit from year to year).

On this park in particular, I would disagree that there's any possibility it was anything other than a rather exreme pitchers park, although just about any park can have it's park factor jump around in 1 year, especially with such a small sample size.

But this park, called South Side Park II when the White Sox occupied it from 1901-1910, was a pitcher's park EVERY SEASON in the AL, and given what we DO know about some of the Negro League parks, it was certainly one of the largest parks used, so it's almost inconceivable it would be anything other than a pitcher's paradise.
   80. Mike Webber Posted: January 09, 2005 at 06:27 PM (#1067419)
Mostly using Win Shares with a bonus for peak seasons. Discounting pre-1893 pitching accomplishments, and giving catchers and middle infielders a little extra love.

1)TOMMY LEACH – Nice long career, excellent fielder at two tough positions. Has all the pluses long career, good peak, and on the good side of the defensive spectrum (Right?)

2)EDD ROUSH – The best of the outfield candidates due to his high peak, too bad he held out every year or he’d probably already be in.

3)DICK REDDING – As with any of the Negro League candidates who aren’t obvious inner circle guys, you have to try to separate the wheat and the chaff. I think this guy is wheat.

4)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Separating Ryan, GVH and Duffy is hard. GVH rises due to longer career.

5)VIC WILLIS – His big seasons push him ahead of guys with similar career lengths, like Rixey and Grimes. His long career puts him ahead of the Vance Waddell group.

6)LARRY DOYLE – Doyle is a better offensive player than any of the shortstops, and none of them dominate him in career length, so I think he has to slot in here.

7)GEORGE J. BURNS – The best leadoff man in NYC until Rickey shows up 65 years later. Some voters talk about balancing positions in the HOM, how about balancing the leadoff position?

8)RABBIT MARANVILLE – Longest career of the shortstops, but mediocre peak. Bonus points for catching pop ups in his shirt pocket.

9)JIMMY RYAN – Trumps Hooper on peak.

10)HARRY HOOPER – Long career, no outstanding peak, but still ahead of Sam Rice in that category.
   81. Mike Webber Posted: January 09, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1067421)
11)EPPA RIXEY – Missing the big seasons to put him in the top third of the year.

12)JOE SEWELL – Career length keeps him below Rabbit, not much difference between the two.

13)GEORGE SISLER – may as well address Bill Terry here, Sisler has the longer career, and Terry’s peak isn’t any better. Terry is 24 on ballot.

14)JOHN BECKWITH – What if he’s not Dick Allen, but instead he is “only” Sal Bando or Bill Madlock? Or even Bobby Bonilla?

15)HUGH DUFFY – Peak slides him ahead of Sam Rice for last ballot spot.


Next ten: Sam Rice, Dobie Moore, Jake Beckley, Dave Bancroft, Burleigh Grimes, Mickey Welch, Pie Traynor, Fielder Jones, and Bill Terry.

Four top tens from last year that I don’t have in the top 25, Clark Griffith(28), Jennings, Vance and Waddell. The difference between Grimes, who I have at 20 and Griffith at 28 is wafer thin. If they were closer to the bottom of the ballot, I’d look at them closer. The other three are guys with shorter careers and awesome peaks, which is fine if you like that sort of thing. I like the long career guys myself.
   82. Guapo Posted: January 09, 2005 at 07:34 PM (#1067521)
Somebody asked for an explanation of individual voters’ “system” for constructing their ballots. Since I’m consistently at the bottom of the class in consensus scores, I’d better spill.

I don’t use a statistical formula. I go through every year, study the encyclopedias, and take notes on the players I identify as the best in the league, or dominant at their position. I look at Win Shares, but am very conscious of its limitations. I rarely look at WARP, because I don’t have access to the explanation of how it’s calculated. When the threads suggest that WARP and WS vary significantly, I may look at WARP to try and get an idea of what’s going on.

I then construct my ballot off those notes. As a result, my ballot is quite focused on what they call “peak.” It would be very easy for me to tweak my ballot to emphasize career and better match the views of the consensus, but I’ve decided that would be intellectually dishonest and a lot less fun. I understand why nobody else is voting for Jack Fournier and Ross Youngs, and I’m cool with that. Conversely, while some guys have been elected to the HoM whom I didn’t support, I understand why they were elected, and what they bring to the table. The only player who I really think was a mistake was probably Bobby Wallace. The only player who I strongly feel should not be omitted is Joe Sewell.

1. Joe Sewell- The American League is about 40 years old right now. Sewell has been the best shortstop for about 25% of the league’s history. His credentials clearly meet the standards of the HOM.

It’s been suggested that Sewell has been overrated because he dominated the shortstop position at a time when it was relatively weak. I looked at how Sewell ranked among players in his league by Win Shares:

1921- Tied for 10th in league- 6th best position player (behind Ruth, Heilmann, Speaker, Sisler, K. Williams, and 4 pitchers)

1922- Tied for 22th in league- 12th best position player (behind 9 pitchers, 3 cf, 3 lf, 2 rf, 2 1b, 1 c, 1 2b)

1923- Tied for 4th in league- 4th best position player (behind Ruth, Speaker, and Heilmann)

1924- Tied for 12th in league- 8th best position player (behind Ehmke, Pennock, Bush, Johnson (P), Collins (2b), Heilmann, Ruth, Rice (RF), Cobb, Jacobson (CF), Goslin (LF)

1925- Tied for 7th in league- 6th best position player (behind Simmons, Goslin, Heilmann, Johnson, Speaker, and Cobb)

1926- Tied for 5th in league- 4th best position player (behind Ruth, Goslin, Uhle, and Gehrig)

1927- Tied for 16th in league- 11th best position player (behind 5 pitchers, 3 RF, 2 LF, 2 CF, 1 1b, 1 2b, 1 C)

1928- Tied for 10th in league- 8th best position player (behind Ruth, Gehrig, Manush, Combs, Grove, T. Thomas, Goslin, Kamm, and Bishop)

1929- Tied for 23th in league- 16th best position player (behind 7 P, 5 1B, 3 CF, 2 2B, 2 RF, 2 LF, 1 C)

1930- Tied for 73rd in league

1931- Tied for 42nd in league

1932- Tied for 29th in league

1933- Tied for 32nd in league

I’m convinced that from 1921 to 1929 (the base of his HoM case), Sewell was not just taking advantage of weak competition. This is the AL in the 1920s, folks- Sewell is hanging with the big boys.

Compare Hughie Jennings:

1891- Tied for 54th in league (AA)

1892- Tied for 78th in league (NL)

1893- 2 WS

1894- Tied for 14th in league- 5th best position player

1895- Tied for 10th in league- 4th best position player

1896- 3rd in league- best position player

1897- 7th in league- 4th best position player (2nd best shortstop)

1898- Tied for 7th in league- 4th best position player

1899- 9 WS

1900- Tied for 72nd in league

1901- 8 WS

1902- 9 WS

Quite a run from 1894-1898. Sewell was less dominant, but an elite player in 4 more seasons than Jennings. I’ll take Sewell.
   83. Guapo Posted: January 09, 2005 at 07:37 PM (#1067530)
2. Larry Doyle- Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence.

3. Hugh Duffy- I’ve been underrating 19th century players, and have been trying to figure out what to about it. Generally, I’ve been able to rationalize it, because (unlike some others) I feel like that era is pretty well represented in the HoM.

However, as I continued to go back and evaluate the guys who were elected before I began participating in the project (Keeler, Burkett, Kelley, etc.) I realized that Duffy comes out very favorably to those guys, to the point where I now feel that his omission is pretty significant. As a result, I decided to boost Duffy and a couple of other 19th century guys over 20th century players I feel are borderline cases... PHOM 1912.

4. Wilbur Cooper- He was one of the very best pitchers in his league for 10 years- unless you completely discount the NL from 1914-1924, he meets the standards of the HOM.
5. Burleigh Grimes- Slightly ahead of Rixey, who I had slightly ahead of Coveleski. Both Grimes and Rixey look like they should make it eventually, but maybe not for many years...
6. Eppa Rixey-
7. Bill Terry- He sure is pulling a lot more support than I thought he would! I like him, but honestly, it’s hard for me to separate him from the glut.
8. George J. Burns- - OBP master- great leadoff hitter.
9. Hack Wilson- A centerfielder who lead the league in HR 4 times? Sign me up. Yeah, the flashy stats are skewed somewhat- but check out those walk totals. This guy was one seriously well-rounded offensive powerhouse.
10. Dick Redding- Not convinced Rogan was better than him.
11. Jack Fournier- - Similar player to Cravath, had a great 5 year run. 10 year career as a regular, and his career adjusted OPS+ is 142.
12. Gavvy Cravath- Had a great 5 year run at the top of the league. Six time HR champ, career adjusted OPS+ is 150.
13. Hughie Jennings- The next beneficiary of the boost for the 19th century guys. I hold him back a little because we’ve elected a lot of his SS peers. PHOM 1912.
14. Ed Konetchy - Another great first baseman, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played.
15. Ross Youngs- This is without any additional credit for his untimely death. Youngs was a terrific player- just didn’t live long enough to accrue career “points.” Nine full-time seasons, career avg. of .322 and OBP of .399. Led NY to 4 straight pennants from 1921-1924.
   84. Guapo Posted: January 09, 2005 at 07:38 PM (#1067535)
Notable Omissions:

Dazzy Vance- one hell of a pitcher for four years, but not much more on his resume. I’d rather have the long career guys like Rixey and Grimes. Still, I don’t begrudge his election- he’s certainly one of MLB’s most wonderful careers.

Clark Griffith- I have voted for him before, took another look at him, was not impressed, and dumped him. There are no pitchers off my ballot whose election I would be inclined to advocate, with the possible exception of Mendez.

Tommy Leach- May well make my PHOM, as I continue to build it. He’s probably in my top 20, but I’m not sure he’s ever going to get back on the ballot with the ways future years are looking.

George Sisler- Slipped off my ballot 2 years ago, perhaps never to return. Four amazing years, but let’s remember context when comparing him to Konetchy and Fournier.

Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career and was never one of the truly great players in the league. I found an old thread that compared him to Mark Grace, which sounds about right to me. Will never make my ballot.

George Van Haltren: The lowest ranked member of the outfield glut for me, he will never make my ballot.

Rube Waddell- We’ve elected a bunch of his mound peers. His career does not stand out compared to those elected.

John Beckwith- The arguments for him are starting to convince me, but I want to see how he compares to Dick Lundy. I still think there’s a disconnect between the statistical recreation of his career and the way observers evaluated him.
   85. Paul Wendt Posted: January 10, 2005 at 12:09 AM (#1068137)
Mike Webber #81:
7)GEORGE J. BURNS – The best leadoff man in NYC until Rickey shows up 65 years later. Some voters talk about balancing positions in the HOM, how about balancing the leadoff position?

The implied suggestion to classify players by batting position, even approximate batting postion (eg 5-6, 6-8) is challenging. For leadoff (batpos 1), I understand that Herm Krabbenhoft has compiled complete data and has distributed if not published much of it. Enough to classify players by reference to his work, not very challenging?

Guapo #82-84:
Good explanation.
Jack Fournier presents one sort of challenge to those who recognize "forces beyond his control" in principle. What kept him out of the majors? I don't think it can be interpreted as voluntary. Was it his skill at baseball?

maybe i will add to this in the WWII thread
   86. Ken Fischer Posted: January 10, 2005 at 12:25 AM (#1068157)
1942 Ballot

1-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM. The fact he was traded to Pitt for an HOM caliber player (J. Kelley) is one more reason he deserves election.

2-Wally Schang 245 WS
He moves up some more on my ballot. Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

3-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

4-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years. The Cannonball shut out Smoky Joe Williams twice in 1920…including a 5-0 win at Ebbets Field.

5-Dazzy Vance 241 WS
Vance’s fast ball pushed Redding to #3 in the 20s with Dazzy right behind Johnson. Amazing career when you realize Dazzy didn’t win his first game until he was 31 and he still finished with 197. He shows up on many all-time Dodgers team lists as the right-handed pitcher.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

7-Bill Terry 278 WS
Deserves a top 10 spot but is overrated because of the .401 season. Terry was a regular for only 10 seasons. I need more from a first baseman to consider him a first-timer.

8-Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
Grimes matches up well with the just elected Faber. His 270 wins and a high Grey Ink are impressive.

9-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

10-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

11-Sam Rice 327 WS
Wheat and Clarke are his comps. Rice ranks high on the triple list. He had success in both the dead & live eras.

12-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.

13-Eppa Rixey 315 WS
Rixey matches up well with Grimes & Faber. He had a long and interesting career. It could be divided into 3 parts…1-his early Phillies days…2-his prime with the Reds as a dominant starter and…3-his time as a spot starter and reliever as he continued to pitch for Cincy into his 40s. He is known for his time with the Reds but made it into the Series only once with the Phils early in his career.

14-Joe Sewell 277 WS
Very hard to strike out and had a tough act to follow (Chapman’s death). He made position change (to third base) late in his career and continued to still have great numbers.

15-Jose Mendez
John Holway says some records credit Mendez with a 44-2 record in 1909. He was considered the best black pitcher of his time.

Sisler is #25, with Griffith #27 and Leach #74 on my depth chart. Terry is similar to Sisler but I see the Giant as much stronger. Griffith just doesn’t match up with the pitchers on my ballot. I would pick any of them plus a couple others not on the ballot as my starter over Griffith. Leach…I’m missing something…I don’t see how he is in the top 10. He’s a poor man’s Jimmy Sheckard.
   87. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 10, 2005 at 12:51 AM (#1068214)
I have 43 ballots at this time.
   88. dan b Posted: January 10, 2005 at 02:27 AM (#1068496)
Win shares are my metric of choice. My composite ranking = 5 x Career + (3 best years)/3 + (5 best consecutive years)/5 + (8 best years)/8 + (10 best consecutive years)/10 + WS per 162. I then make adjustments justified by individual components with a touch of subjectivity thrown in. I use the same system for hitters and for 60’ 6” era pitchers. I also look at WS w/o defense for a hitting only ranking. (Number in parenthesis shows composite rank.)



1.Rixey (9) More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander put him in PHoM 1939. 4th in his era in Pennants Added.
2.Jennings (12) – PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1st in 3 and 5-year peaks.
3.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
4.Duffy (1). PHoM in 1912.
5.Leach (5) 7th in 8-yr peak, 5th in career. PHoM 1926. Joe’s pennants added agrees – he should be in the HoM.
6.Griffith (2) 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913.
7.Cooper (4) Pennants added likes him.
8. Mays (5) ditto. I like these guys better than Vance or Faber.
9.Bresnahan (30) 19th in WS/162, but 5th in WS/600PA. Big position bonus to fill the void behind the plate. HoM will be flawed if we do not induct at least one Major League catcher who played between Buck Ewing’s retirement in 1897 and Gabby Hartnett’s debut in 1922. Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
10.Roush (2) Composite rank better than any single component.
11.Redding Good enough to enshrine.
12.Burns,GJ (3) 4th in 8 and 10 year peaks, 5th in 3-year. 4th best hitter.
13.Sisler (13) – Best hitter on ballot.
14.Terry (6) – Today I have Sisler ahead of Terry, tomorrow I might change my mind again.
15.Sewell(18) NHBA has him as 5th best SS eligible to date.
   89. Patrick W Posted: January 10, 2005 at 02:48 AM (#1068555)
This has been one of those elections where you just have to stop at some point and turn in the ballot. I’ve jumbled these players back and forth for 5 days now. Really looking forward to 3 months of easy elections.

1. John Beckwith (3), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Appears to me to rank solidly among banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson). I estimate an EQA of 0.330 from the MLE’s. Short career, but first on this list by a healthy margin.
2. Joe Sewell (8), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Don’t let it be said I have no love for the prime/peak guys.
3. Bill Terry (n/a), NY(N), 1B (’24-’36) (1942) – Lower end of the career-value spectrum as far as HOM 1B-OF types go, but solid peak vaults him to the top of his subcategory. However, when Sewell beats you on a career analysis you can’t reach the money spots on the ballot. Despite reservations, a first-ballot P-HOMer.
4. George Van Haltren (5), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Even un-adjusted, most career WS among 1B-OF. Leads the pack from the 90s holdovers.
--. Mordecai Brown, Chic. (N), SP (’03-’16) (1942) Best career ERA+ in the P-Hall selection pool, WS likes him better than other pitchers. Not obvious to me that he’s the best pitcher here statistically, even 20 years after he was elected. But I’m gonna put him in before the Faber-Rixey crowd.
5. Jimmy Ryan (6), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Don’t really understand the lack of support. I guess I never will.
6. Dazzy Vance (4), Bkn (N), SP (’22-’35) – Best (W3 + 5-Pk) here, really good ERA+ among this crowd, (WS + 5-Pk) tempers enthusiasm a little. Worth waiting 8-10 years and seeing how he sinks or swims.
7. Ben Taylor (9), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
8. Eppa Rixey (13), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings. See J.Quinn commentary below.
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) –
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
9. Jake Beckley (10), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.
10. Harry Hooper (7), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
11. Rabbit Maranville (--), Bost. (N), SS (’13-’33) – Hard to have no-peak Beckley on the ballot and leave off Rabbit. 300 WS feels like it deserves an automatic ballot spot this year. 80’s pitchers excepted, of course.
12. Clark Griffith (--), Chic. (N) - NY (A), SP (’91-’14) – This spot could be filled by any one of the players I have to talk about for leaving off (or 12 other players just like ‘em).
13. Rube Waddell (12), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – The K’s still impress after all this time.
14. Urban Shocker (14), St.L (A), SP (’16-’27) – Since it’s hard to distinguish between these pitchers, they either all get a spot or all drop off. Decided to round out the ballot with pitchers rather than hitters (Veach, Griffin, Leach, Konetchy).
15. Spotswood Poles (--), N.Y. Lincoln (--), CF (‘09-‘23) – My re-analysis of the MLE numbers has Poles becoming a member of the career-value outfielders list littering this ballot.

Jack Quinn – I’ve thought about Quinn more than any other player on the ballot this week, wondering how Rixey’s going to get in later rather than sooner while Jack has one vote. Total WARP says they’re the same player in net results. BB-Ref agrees they’re the same player by ERA+ (career, 162-avg, & high). So of course, WS finds a 10-win difference in their careers. Still debating, but no room on the ballot this week …

Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to overcome the career guys.
George Sisler – A little more career than Jennings, but I think I like Jennings better, due to the peak.
Tommy Leach – Because I’ll get yelled at for having too many outfielders.

Jennings, Sisler & Leach were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   90. Esteban Rivera Posted: January 10, 2005 at 04:01 AM (#1068696)
Light the candles for the also-rans, because after this election it will be one long vigil for most of them.

1. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

2. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

5. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

6. Dazzy Vance - Peak. Strikeouts. Dominance.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

9. Bill Terry - Just below Sisler's peak but with a longer prime. Starts off below Sisler when career numbers are figured into the mix.

10. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

11. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

12. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

13. Roger Bresnahan - Edges out Schang and Shalk as my top catcher available. Have moved him back up because I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

14. Frank Chance - The opposite of Beckley. Was the standard for excellence at his position but injuries did him in. Tragic that it was the "competitive" nature of his opposition that caused him part of his career and shortened his life.

15. John Beckwith - All the analysis done this "year" vaults him back on my ballot. I am at least certain that he was a fantastic hitter. He may move up quickly soon, but I still am not sure what his role would have been if he had played in the big leagues.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Joe Sewell - A little more playing career and he would have been on the ballot. As it is, he is just off it.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot around 19.

Tommy Leach - Moves up in my estimation this year but not enough to crack the ballot. Around 17.
   91. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: January 10, 2005 at 04:10 AM (#1068715)
Whoever doesn’t make it this year is going to be waiting a long time, maybe forever. There are a lot of “elect-me” types that’ll be coming up over the next decade or so.

1942 ballot:

1. Mickey Welch: Kelly from SD has made the case for him better than I ever could – see posts 107-108 in the 1939 discussion thread. (PHOM 1929)

2. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. I like the gray ink & counting stats. No eye-popping seasons, but an all-star caliber player for 10 years.(PHOM 1926)

3. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. 8 STATS AS. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

4. George Sisler: Practically a perennial all-star before the illness, good but not great after – still, was the STATS all-star 1B in 1925, and a probable runner-up to Gehrig in ’27. Good black & gray ink. I’d think peak voters would really like him. Looks like some do, some don’t. (PHOM 1938)

5. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, above-average offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W% and quite a few of his teams were mediocre at best. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons.

7. Bill Terry: Stronger candidate than I thought he’d be. Very close to Sisler, ahead on pennants added, behind in Win Shares. A+ defense helps.

8. Hugh Duffy: Solid WS and WS/162, MVP in ’94, excellent defense. (PHOM 1940)

9. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

10. Tommy Leach: A+ defense at two important positions, solid offense for the era. Pennants added numbers help his case.

11. Wally Schang
12. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1932)
The HOM needs catchers. Wally edges the Duke on the basis of playing time & durability. Their defense is comparable, and Schang’s offense isn’t that much below.

13. Dick Redding: Similar in different ways to some on- and off-ballot pitchers: Griffith, Vance, Cooper. I’ve spotted him in-between, which seems about right.

14. Dazzy Vance: Dominant strikeout pitcher. Waddell without the baggage.

15. Larry Doyle: Good offensive credentials. 8 all-star quality seasons.


Formerly on the ballot, now waiting in the wings: John Beckwith, Vic Willis, Rube Waddell, Carl Mays, Ben Taylor, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Cupid Childs, Spots Poles.

Required explanations:
Jennings: Exceptional peak, but little else.
Rixey: Right behind Faber, who was 15th on my ballot in ’39.
   92. Andrew M Posted: January 10, 2005 at 06:35 AM (#1069089)
1942 Ballot

I look at both the “uber stat systems” (my apologies to any German speakers for not knowing how to put the umlaut over the “u”) about equally. I tend to favor WS for position players, in part because they are easier for me to understand and work with, and BP’s numbers for pitchers, which seem more reliable to me. I’ve tried various composite rankings/formulas, but haven’t been satisfied with any of them. Instead I look at a player’s career totals, 3, 5, 7, 10 year WS and WARP, WARP and WS above average and above replacement, and anything else I can think of.

1. (3) George Van Haltren. He has the best career numbers among eligible players--his 12 (284) and 15 (335) year unadjusted WS totals are better than any other eligible position player, as are his 13 seasons with 20+ WS--and more peak than he is sometimes given credit for when you consider many of his best years are in short seasons. In my adjustment to 162 games he has around 400 career WS with 3 seasons above 30, 6 more above 25, and an average of 28 per season. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching, for which I do give him credit.

2. (4) Clark Griffith. The first of four pitchers on my ballot, and though I can see putting them in any order, Griffith for now gets the nod for having a better peak than Rixey and more career than Vance or Waddell. .620 career win pct. for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams is impressive as is his 121 ERA+ and 1895-1901 peak.

3. (5) Hugh Duffy. Looking at his Win Shares he looks like the best of the high peak, 8000 plate appearance, 10-12 quality year outfielders. Impressive peak/prime numbers over 3, 5, 7, 10 years (incl. 8 seasons over 25 adjWS/8.9 WARP), good black and gray ink, a+ CF defense, and an MVP caliber year (1894). Rapid decline around age 33, but enough career (336 adjWS) to merit serious consideration.

4. (6) Larry Doyle. Higher career OPS+ (126) than all but a handful of 2B. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. Also captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. I assume John McGraw would not have played him at 2B if his fielding was not adequate for the position. Above Childs on my ballot because he has a longer career with only slightly less peak and I am not significantly discounting the NL during his era.

5. (7) Eppa Rixey. Throw out the years he was fighting in WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 (but for 1920) and as high as 143. ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings tells me he should be on the ballot someplace.

6. (8) Edd Roush. Very similar to Hugh Duffy. Arguably the best player in the NL during his peak (1917-1920.)

7. (14) Cupid Childs. Benefits from a general reconsideration of middle infielders this week. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. 3, 5, 7 year aWS and WARP not quite up to Jennings, but 20% more plate appearances than Hughie.

8. (new) John Beckwith. I am still concerned about those “negative intangibles,” but I am convinced he was a great hitter who also could play some SS and 3B.

9. (new) Bill Terry. Although he was clearly not as good as some of his AL contemporaries, I have him rated as the highest eligible first baseman. His career is relatively brief, but he has 10 quality years in which he averaged almost 26 Win Shares per season, a .304 EQA, 136 OPS+, and had an excellent glove. The player with the closest similarity score to Terry is Don Mattingly.

10. (15) Dobie Moore. Given conservative credit for his 7 years in the army, his career begins to look long enough HoM worthy to me and moves him just ahead of Jennings on my ballot, though Hughie’s peak was slightly higher.

11. (10) Dazzy Vance. A slightly better version of Rube Waddell with even worse run support. Win Shares doesn’t make the case for him, but his career ERA+ (125) is impressive as is/are his DERA, PRAA, and PRAR, which taken together suggest to me that he was very effective pitcher over 3000 innings.

12. (11) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134. Would be higher but for concerns about his general effectiveness at winning games and preventing unearned runs.

13. (9) Tommy Leach. Excellent glove at 3B and CF, and a long career with more peak than the other players on the ballot with comparable WS and WARP numbers. I wish he had played more than 955 games at 3B, but still worthy of a ballot spot despite a 109 OPS+.

14. (13) George Burns. Slightly less peak than Duffy and slightly less career than Roush, but the same basic model. 11 good/great seasons, with 3 seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) that were of MVP quality. His fielding numbers in 1922 suggest he could have been a quality CF had McGraw played him there.

15. (18) Hughie Jennings. Those 5 outstanding seasons finally get him on my ballot.

Next 5 (more or less)
16. Wally Schang
17. Vic Willis
18. Jimmy Ryan
19. Roger Bresnahan
20. George Sisler

Required disclosures:
Joe Sewell. Though his WARP numbers are very good, I’m not convinced he’s more worthy than Long or Bancroft, and I am convinced he’s a step or two behind Beckwith, Moore, and Jennings.

George Sisler. Was on my ballot in previous years. Might come back again in the future. He’s got a good 7-year run and a decent career, but so do a lot of these guys.

Jake Beckley. Behind Sisler, Chance, and Taylor on my list of 1B. He’s in the eligible candidates team photo, but not on the ballot.
   93. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: January 10, 2005 at 06:49 AM (#1069128)
I'm not arguing with anybody about the deluge coming, but people were saying that the 1932 election was the last chance for 19th Century players. Mr. Pike would respectfully disagree.

BTW, just so it doesn't get overlooked, this ballot thread is missing from the year-by-year list at the top of the HoM page.

Some definite movement among the top of my ballot this week. Took another look at the pitchers and the cream rose to the top.

1. Dazzy Vance (5) Clearly has the best peak among pitching candidates, and his career totals are very respectable given the length of his career. Best pitcher in the league by WS 3 times, and had several other above average seasons. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Tommy Leach (4) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Among the candidates he has one of the best career arguments. His peak isn't great, but it's certainly respectable. I'm not so sure that the 1900s aren't the underrepresented decade. Made my PHoM in 1940.

(2A Red Faber)

3. Joe Sewell (3) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and as Guapo showed, Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.

4. Cupid Childs (6) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. I'd say his defensive advantage outweighs Doyle's offensive one. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my HoM in 1932.

5. Bill Monroe (7) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Have him close to Childs, with a longer career, but probably less peak value. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. George Van Haltren (8) Kind of a dividing line for me, as I can't see putting him in without Carey and Ryan as well. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That just doesn't seem like a HoMer to me.
(6A Max Carey)

7. Jimmy Ryan (10) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.

8. John Beckwith (11) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionabledefense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around. I'm not wholly convinced yet, but the MLEs do argue for a pretty high ballot position.

9. Bill Terry (new) I finally got around to updating something I did a while back. I averaged the Win Shares for all the starting 1Bmen for each season, and then added up how much each player was above or below average each year. Here's the top 10 for 1888-1951 (so the ABC boys are incomplete):

1. Lou Gehrig - 235.91
2. Jimmie Foxx - 146.09
3. Johnny Mize - 116.43
4. Dan Brouthers - 82.58
5. Bill Terry - 82.04
6. Frank Chance - 76.28
7. Roger Connor - 72.79
8. Hank Greenberg - 70.54
9. Jake Beckley - 67.82
10. Ed Konetchy - 66.71

Add in that Terry's career matches the #1 and #2 guys on the list, which inflates the average he's being compared to, and he's definitely ahead of all the other 1Bmen, if not worthy of induction.

10. Dick Redding (9) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not. I'm also not sure the teens need many more pitchers.

(10A Sam Thompson)

11. Hughie Jennings (12) His peak still leaps out at you, but there's just so little around it that I can’t put him higher than this.

12. Jose Mendez (13) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t quite match up to Redding.

(12A Rube Foster)

13. Eppa Rixey (14) I might be underestimating him, and he did throw a ton of innings, but as I look at everything, he's definitely in back of Vance and Faber.

14. Spotswood Poles (15) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good. Does anyone like him as much as Bill (might make his Top 100) James?

15. Dave Bancroft (22) Here's how Bancroft and Sewell's rank by Win Shares (I was doing it by hand, so I didn't go below 20th)
On their teams:
Bancroft: 1st-3, 2nd-3, 3rd-1(Tie), 5th-2, 6th-3, 9th-1, 10th-1, 13th-1
Sewell: 1st-3(2 Ties), 2nd-4(3 Ties), 4th-1, 5th-1, 6th-1(Tie), 8th-2(Ties), 9th-1, 17th-1
In their league:
Bancroft: 3rd-1, 6th-1, 10th-1, 14th-1(Tie), 16th-1(Tie), 20th-1(Tie), >20th-9
Sewell: 4th-1(Tie), 5th-1, 7th-1(Tie), 10th-2(Ties), 12th-1(Tie), 16th-1(Tie), >20th-7

The teams are pretty even. Sewell does have an edge compared to the league, but it's not a huge one, so I moved Bancroft up. Wins the award for "Best Frankie Frisch Selection".

16. Bobby Veach (16) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
17. Rube Waddell (18) Every time I check the numbers recently he moves up, but still not that much meat on the bones.
18. Ben Taylor (19) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
19. Jake Beckley. (20) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit.
20. Larry Doyle. (17) Amazingly similar to Ed Konetchy, but definitely a worse fielder. Is the 2B offense better than the 1B Defense?
21. Charley Jones (30) Hard to be sure how much credit to give for the blacklisted years, but clearly a good player.
22. Clark Griffith (21) I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers, he just lacks the greatness I feel I need to see.
23. Roger Bresnahan (24) I was underrating catchers, and didn’t realize how good his CF years were. But the career’s still too short.
24. George Sisler (26) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years.
25. Burleigh Grimes (25) Another pitcher from the 20's clump, doesn't measure up to Rixey and Faber.
26. Dobie Moore (36) I still don't really know how much to credit his Army years, but worst-case is Jennings-lite.
27. Vic Willis (27) Does well by Pennants Added, did have a lot of pretty good years.
28. Pie Traynor (28) There isn't much to seperate him from Cross. Across-the-board, definitely behind Sewell among contemporaries.
29. Harry Hooper (23) Similar to Wheat in some ways, but not as good. Pretty low OPS+ for a corner OF candidate.
30. Jim McCormick (39) I don't think I've ever had Welch in front of him, and don't think I ever will.
   94. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 10, 2005 at 07:24 AM (#1069219)
PA = Pennants Added
WSaR = Win Shares above replacement
WS = Win Shares

WS are adjusted to a 162 game season, based on team decisions. Replacement level has been tweaked upward (from 6.5 to 8.8 WS/season). ~337 IP = 162 G for a hitter.

1. Eppa Rixey (3) - (280-237 CJ, .690 PA, 206 WSaR, 331 WS) Rixey is clearly the top pitcher on this ballot, even with the arrival of Vance. He'd be over 300 CJ wins (and around .770 PA and 370 WS) if he hadn't served in the military in 1918-19. 300 game winners are a rare breed (especially after 1892) and in just about any other conditions before 1985, Rixey would have been one. It's a shame that he's consider a mistake Hall of Famer by a lot of people because of his W-L record, which was tainted by pitching for some bad teams. He's every bit as good as Robin Roberts was, for example.

2. Dazzy Vance (4) - (209-129 CJ, .605 PA, 174 WSaR, 256 WS) - Great pitcher, relatively short career. I like long-career very good pitchers more than short career star pitchers, and if it were 1910 I had my choice, I'd take Rixey's career over Vance's. I hope they both are inducted quickly, but I'd take Eppa first.

3. Charley Jones (5) - (.716 PA, 197 WSaR, 287 WS) Give him credit for his blackballed years at .0875 per year and he's at .891 PA. That's basically his 1878, he was better than that in 1879, 1884 and 1885. Throw in 33 WS per year and we're at 343. Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow.

4. Bill Monroe (6) - (Esitmated 344 WS if you give him credit for A defense) Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he was a star.

5. Gavy Cravath (7) - (.534 PA, 152 WSaR, 220 WS) Too much to ignore - either he was a freak of nature or there's a lot missing. Just giving him 4 years of extra credit at .075 PA, or 29 WS per season (he was better than that 3 times in his 30s) moves him to 336 WS, .834 PA.

6. Jake Beckley (8) - (.714 PA, 215 WSaR, 369 WS) A very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. 11 seasons over 20 WS, which is understated by about 2-3 per season because of WS undervaluing 1B in his era. That has a lot of value in my opinion.

7. Clark Griffith (9) - (231-152 CJ, .769 PA, 217 WSaR, 320 WS). He rates as the top post 1893 pitcher on the ballot, by a long-shot - though earlier pitchers seem to have an advantage on PA (more innings in a season = more pennant impact). He falls behind Rixey when Rixey's war credit is included. It was also tougher for pitchers to have the same pennant impact in Rixey's era, so ties tend to go to the modern pitcher on this basis.

Why the rush on McGinnity and the stonewalling of Griffith? I just don't get it. I think we were way too friendly to McGinnity, but I can't see how he'd be in and Griffith out - Griffith absolutely deserves eventual induction.

8. George Van Haltren (10) - (.879 PA, 254 WSaR, 412 WS) - Most WS and WSaR among position players on the ballot. Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6.

9. Tommy Leach (11) - (.778 PA, 226 WSaR, 355 WS) Win Shares loves this guy. He's underrated as a 3B and overrated as a CF because of the time he played in, but in the end it's a wash. Sure it wasn't a great league, but that's an awful lot of WS to turn your back on.

10. Dobie Moore (12) - (Estimated 300-340 WS depending on war credit and defensive quality). Great player, career cut short.

11. Wally Schang (13) - (.569 PA, 174 WSaR, 262 WS) The best white catcher we've seen since Buck Ewing. 117 OPS+ that was OBP heavy (career .393 OBP) and he lasted 19 years, though he never played more than 134 games in a season. He rates higher on WS than Charlie Bennett (.527, 154 WSaR, 239 WS).

Schang is miles ahead of Schalk (.392 PA, 120 WSaR, 206 WS), and as far as I can tell, any white catcher of the era 1910-30 era.

12. Jimmy Ryan (15) - (.787 PA, 229 WSaR, 368 WS) Great player from 1888-92, and a very good player during the remainder of his long career.

13. Edd Roush (14) - (.798 PA, 228 WSaR, 340 WS) Great player from 1917-1920. His peak was every bit as good as Sisler. Sisler 1916-1922: 145 WSaR. Roush's best 7 seasons 152 WSaR. Sisler, one season at 25 WSaR. Roush two above that and another at 24. The remainder of their careers isn't close. I can't see voting Sisler over Roush. Even giving Sisler at 10% overall bonus for 1B not being measured correctly (which wouldn't even apply to 2nd half of Sisler's career, where 1B became a more offensive position Roush is ahead on all three measures.

14. Ben Taylor (16) - (Estimated 326 WS) Almost a direct replica of Beckley. Says a lot about the tightness of the ballot.

15. Hugh Duffy (17) - (.822 PA, 231 WSaR, 348 WS) What? The guy I bashed, bashed and bashed again? I guess I was discounting his 1891 too heavily. It needs to be deflated, but not as much as I had. I also laughed away his 1894 as a very good year, but not a historic one in context - again, I was probably too harsh there.

close, but no cigar . . .

16. Vic Willis (18) - (251-203 CJ, .739 PA, 207 WSaR, 322 WS) - I like Mike Webber's pet too.

17. Bill Terry (n/e) - (.698 PA, 197 WSaR, 294 WS) I think he clearly has to rate above Sisler. WARP likes him a lot more than Sisler. Didn't hit quite the same peak, but had more good years (9 vs. 7) and wasn't as bad in his bad years. I think the Mattingly/Puckett comps are reasonable.

18. Spotswood Poles (19) - (~332 WS)
19. Dolph Luque (20) - (with 3 bonus seasons at roughly .500 I see him at 239-199 (207-166 CJ), .670 PA, 197 WSaR, 297 WS)
20. Frank Chance (21) - (.650 PA, 185 WSaR, 257 WS)
21. Roger Bresnahan (22) - (.581 PA, 170 WSaR, 249 WS)
22. George Sisler (23) - (.659 PA, 190 WSaR, 317 WS) Most of what I want to say about him is covered in the Roush comment. Additionally, Sisler was a great player from 1916-22. 1B had more defensive responsibility and Sisler still hit like a great outfielder. I see as quite similar to Don Mattingly, but Sisler was able to sustain his greatness a little bit longer and would have to rank ahead if forced to choose among them. I give him a 7.7% bonus for playing 1B - this is the percentage of his pennants added that game before 1923 (the date I generally use as my cutoff for deadball the deadball 1B bonus).
23. Mickey Welch (24) - (302-215 CJ, 1.432 PA, 345 WSaR, 536 WS) - I can't tell if RSI or WARP tells the true story. Extremely divergent opinions. Sad to see that he died this year without being elected.

Others within shouting distance:

Close but can't even order them at this point: Dick Redding, Jose Mendez, Urban Shocker, Carl Mays, Burleigh Grimes (should I be giving him any military service credit?), Jim McCormick, Rube Waddell, Jack Quinn, Eddie Cicotte, Herb Pennock, Harry Hooper, Ed Konetchy, Joe Sewell, Travis Jackson, Freddie Lindstrom, John Beckwith, Ed Williamson, Lave Cross, Pie Traynor, Hughie Jennings, Herman Long, Sam Rice, Fielder Jones, Mike Griffin, Larry Doyle, Cupid Childs, John McGraw, Rabbit Maranville, Joe Tinker, Dave Bancroft, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning.

That works out to 55 players under consideration.
   95. andrew siegel Posted: January 10, 2005 at 01:59 PM (#1069655)
Just back from a conference and need to teach two classes today, so this will be brief. Rely on prior ballots for more details:

(1) George Van Haltren (4th)-- Nudges back into first based on the weight of all his accomplishments.
(2) Hughie Jennings (3rd)-- Briefly the best player in baseball; deserving of one of the last few spots in the HoM.
(3) Charley Jones (7th)-- Fewer negatives than anyone below him.
(4) Cupid Childs (5th)-- As I said last week, want to drop him but have no one to move up.
(5) John Beckwith (9th)-- The 5th best hitter in the Negro Leagues during the 1920-1945 period behind 4 surefire HoMers. Only guys with roughly similar offensive credentials we've excluded are Tiernan, Browning, and Cravath and he had more defensive value than them.
(6) Hugh Duffy (13th)-- I keep dropping him for no reason and having to move him back up. If you drink the WS coolaid, he should have been inducted years ago. When you combine the runs, RBI, and titles with the WS, strong top of ballot case despite medicore offensive WP/OPS+.
(7) Dazzy Vance (8th)-- Ever so slightly ahead of the longer career contemporaries.
(8) Edd Roush (10th)-- Van Haltren with less in-season durability.
(9) Eppa Rixey (11th)--Very close to Coveleski and Vance, just earned his value differently.
(10) Burleigh Grimes (12th)-- Ditto.
(11) Bill Terry (new)-- Best 1B on ballot, but their are too many 1B with roughly similar credentials to start him any higher.
(12) Frank Chance (6th)-- Very similar hitter to Terry and slightly worse fielder in much shorter career but with some catching and great intangibles. I've got the two linked. They could be as high as 4th and 5th or as low as the late teens.
(13) Joe Sewell (14th)-- Ballot worthy; not sure if any better than that.
(14) Dobbie Moore (unranked)-- Rises back on to the ballot.
(15) Jake Beckley (unranked)-- While guys like Chance, Terry, Sisler, Konetchy, Fournier, Harry Davis, Stuffy McIniss, etc. would sometimes make the top 10 position players in their leagues, he almost never did so. On the other hand, his league was tougher and larger and he played more innings at 1B than all but one other guy in history. I think James has him horribly underrated, but still don't think he's an HoMer.

Sisler and Griffith are very close to my ballot (maybe the next two guys). I've rethought Waddell a bit and now have him in the top 30, but he's never going to make my ballot.
   96. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 10, 2005 at 04:33 PM (#1069791)
51 ballots up to this point: there is still a battle for the second spot.

We're missing ballots from Dan Rosenheck (looks like he's gone for good), Brian H, Buddah, jimd and Max Parkinson.
   97. Max Parkinson Posted: January 10, 2005 at 05:19 PM (#1069906)
I'll have my ballot in today - and won't cram against the 8:00 deadline for once...
   98. Max Parkinson Posted: January 10, 2005 at 09:56 PM (#1070567)
1942 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Vance and Terry)


1. Hughie Jennings

Still crazy after all these years… Hughie remains the only player on the ballot with the “Best Player in the Game” belt. I’m not sure that a good chunk of you will ever be convinced of my argument, but I’d rather a superduperstar for 5 years, with a blah 6 or 7 than a pretty good player for 15. For those 5 great years, Hughie was more valuable offensively than A-rod in his prime, and was otherworldly in the field. 5 possible MVP years are much more than anyone else here can claim…

It seems as though Hughie isn’t going to make it for a while, now. Pity.

2. Dazzy Vance

Career wasn’t long, but was prime ever good! Best pitcher in the game in ’24 and ’28.

3. Clark Griffith

As discussed in the Mickey Welch thread, Griffith is the best pitcher not yet inducted from a pretty damn good era of baseball, the one-league late ‘90s, where the other 3 are inner-circle types in Young, Nichols and Rusie. Contrast Welch, who would be at best the 7th best pitcher from his decade.

4. John Beckwith

I went with the assumption that Beckwith in the big leagues wouldn't have lasted long at 3rd base, and would've ended up at 1st or left field. Taking Chris Cobb's WS estimates, I compared him to his contemporaries at the bat-first positions of LF,RF and 1B. He falls behind the no-brainers, but was comparable to Konetchy, Sisler and Keeler (not a true contemporary). Assuming average defensive value at 1B or LF, which is no stretch at all, he falls just ahead of Ed and Terry.

I understand that this is a conservative estimate of Beckwith’s defensive capability, but I can point to a number of current big-leaguers who were shortstops at AA or AAA or even for a year or two in the majors who would never be considered ML SSs or even 3rd basemen – Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell, not to mention Delgado and Phelps (catchers, which is a similar proposition of good bat at key defensive positions who got shifted leftward on the spectrum).

5. Bill Terry

Here’s a pretty good test case for how good you can be (Merit-wise) without ever being the best at your position in the game. Terry could never be considered better than the 3rd-best 1Bman in the MLs during any multi-year stretch, and that ignores Mule Suttles. Nevertheless, he was an elite-level player, and I think that he belongs on a ballot.

6. Ed Konetchy

Ahead of Sisler? Well, it’s close but yes. Whereas Rixey had the better extended prime than Faber, it wasn’t better by enough to overcome Faber’s peak lead. Here, Konetchy’s prime is better by enough to overcome Sisler’s peak. Take defense for example. Sisler was acknowledged as a great glove man, but it was really only true while he was young. Konetchy was as good as that for most of his career. Konetchy never had Sisler’s great few seasons, but he wasn’t nearly as bad at his worst.

7. Dick Redding

I think he slots in best here. But really, I’ve got a system that has a possible point range from 0 to 5950. The Babe is #1 with just over 4600, and 5 other players are above 3000. 14 more are better than 2000. I’ve got 46 players (retired and active) between Jennings (1618) and Eddie Cicotte (1420), a gap of less than 200 points. If I think Redding’s in this region, the margin of error puts him anywhere from 4 to 35 on this ballot.

8. Harry Hooper
9. George Burns

The next two outfielders from the teens (and 20s). I’ve got a question for the electorate: Why is Jake Beckley getting so much more attention than Hooper? 18 people voted for Beckley last year, while passing on Hooper, including 4 who voted for Beckley in an elect-me position!

I would think that most (Except Karl, of course) of Beckley’s supporters are Win Shares people, so let’s look at Win Shares. Granted, I use modified WS, but my 3 mods should help Beckley as compared to straight WS. First, pre-1893 I apportion 50% of Pitching WS to position players, more in fielding than batting. This helps Beckley but not Hooper. Next, I use a 2/3 power to account for shorter seasons (This is like old WARP, new WARP uses ½). Last, I use ½ of the league adjustment of BP between leagues of the same year. Beckley played in the best available league for his entire career save the last 6 years. Hooper played in the best league save for his last 2. Slight edge to Hooper. ** Note that WS undervalues both 1B (pre-1920) and RF defense. Beckley was good at the former, Hooper was superlative at the latter. Who does Win Shares’ mistakes hurt more?

Anyhow, here’s what I get from my modified WS

________________JB____HH

Career__________352___337
Best 3___________73____85
Best 5__________116___130
Best 7__________156___171
Best 10_________215___231
5 Cons._________108___127
6 Cons._________127___147
7 Cons._________148___167
8 Cons._________167___188
9 Cons._________178___204
10 Cons.________195___226

Hooper’s best year is better than Beckley’s best. So’s his 2nd best. And 3rd, 4th, 5th right to 12th. Beckley then takes over, and his 13th best through 20th best is better than Hooper’s. But 15 Win Shares over a career is enough to have Beckley 1 and Hooper never heard of ya? When any look at peak or prime says that Hooper was better? Sorry to rant, but I just don’t get it.
   99. Max Parkinson Posted: January 10, 2005 at 09:59 PM (#1070571)
10. Rube Waddell

A beneficiary of my correction for previously overpenalising poor-hitting and poor-fielding pitchers. He was certainly both. But those K’s…

11. Bobby Veach

Peak was higher than Hooper, but prime not as long. Was the 3rd best OF in the AL a few times; not too shabby when the other 2 are Cobb and Speaker.

12. George Sisler
13. Bill Monroe

I’ve probably been underrating Monroe…

14. Burleigh Grimes

Good career, decent peak - possible MP HoMer down the road.

15. Joe Sewell

The best AL shortstop of the 20s (probably the best white shortstop of the era).

Others:

16-20. Moore, Uhle, Maranville, Rixey, Shocker
21-25. F. Jones, Roush, Bancroft, Mays, C. Jones
26-30. Mendez, Luque, Cicotte, Pennock, Duffy
31-35. Taylor, Quinn, Leach, Seymour, Fletcher
36-40. Tinker, Shawkey, Rommel, Buffinton, Youngs


Required:

Beckley – see Hooper’s comment. 50 on my ballot.
   100. jimd Posted: January 11, 2005 at 01:08 AM (#1070944)
Ballot for 1942

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

In the midst of revising my system (yet again). Maybe next election.

1) H. JENNINGS -- Using rolling 5-year peaks for WARP-3, of those eligible, only he can claim to have been the "best player in baseball". All of the others have already been elected or are not yet eligible or are too obvious to mention; elected to my PHOM a quarter-century ago.

2) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

3) D. VANCE -- Dominant at his peak.

4) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

5) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

6) H. DUFFY -- Underrated.

7) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

8) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

9) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition.

10) B. TERRY -- Good peak; rates ahead of Sisler for extra career.

11) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

12) R. MARANVILLE -- Long solid career.

13) H. HOOPER -- Long solid career.

14) J. RYAN -- All been said before.

15) E. RIXEY -- Long solid career.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Fielder Jones, John Beckwith, Ned Williamson, Herman Long,
20-23) Wally Schang, Edd Roush, Dick Redding, Jim McCormick,
25-27) Jose Mendez, Del Pratt, Gavy Cravath, Roger Bresnahan,
30-32) Sam Rice, Tommy Bond, Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley
Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 

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