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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, February 28, 2005

1946 Ballot

Al Simmons, Turkey Stearnes, Mule Suttles, Earl Averill, Wally Berger, Dizzy Dean and Newt Allen lead off one of the most impressive classes of newly eligible to date.

Top-ten returnees include: John Beckwith, Eppa Rixey, Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings, Wes Ferrell, Joe Sewell, George Sisler and George Van Haltren.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 28, 2005 at 02:20 PM | 119 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 28, 2005 at 03:08 PM (#1170213)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Turkey Stearnes-CF/LF/1B (n/e): Even though we don't have the MLE for Stearnes yet, I decided to go with him at #1. The many years in centerfield convinced me to place him above Simmons. A pretty obvious HoMer.

2) Al Simmons-LF/CF (n/e): out faster than expected, but he was a truly great one during the twenties.Best major league centerfielder for 1926 and close in 1927. Best AL centerfielder for 1927. Best major league leftfielder for 1930 and 1931. Best AL leftfielder for 1934.

3) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (1): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. I have him pegged at his position(s) multiple times as the best for many seasons among white and black players.

4) Mule Suttles-1B/LF (n/e): Could be underrating or overrating him, but I don't think it matters for this election. I can confidently say the man had a bat, though.

5) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (3): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (n/e): It has been a while since we last saw Duffy on my ballot (and he really made a splash this time!). "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league rightfielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) George Van Haltren-CF/P (4): Another player who does well with my new system. Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

9) Jake Beckley-1B (5): I think karlmagnus overdoes it with his hitting metric, but he does make a good point about Beckley's hits. Prorated to a 162 game schedule, "Eagle Eye" would have easily made over 3,000 hits without breaking a sweat. How many contemporary batters would we leave off our ballots with that on their resume? I would think none.

Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

10) Jack Quinn-P (n/e): Giving him credit for his 1916-17 years pushes him on to my ballot for the very first time. Never the best for a season, but more consistently good than Grimes or Rixey, IMO.

11) Wally Schang-C (n/e): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

12) Pie Traynor-3B (6): For a while, I thought I may be overrating him, but I think I have him right now. Underrated by the electorate. Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (7): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Eppa Rixey-P (8): Before Spahn, he was the winningest lefty in the NL. Comparable to Faber, except Red had a better peak..

15) Mickey Welch-P (9): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

16) Earl Averil

17) Buzz Arlett

18) Frank Chance

19) Pete Browning

20) Charley Jones

Griffith, Ferrell, Sewell, Jennings and Sisler all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: February 28, 2005 at 03:38 PM (#1170252)
I usually leap into action about now, but I have to say without Stearnes' and Suttles' MLEs I feel lost on those two. If Chris hasn't been able to produce by then, I will shut my eyes and guess Wed/Thurs, but I would hate to elect Stearnes without Chris' full input -- he's not Charleston/Gibson, so one can't just tip the cap, equally I think he should probably be in.

Suttles less of a problem, because I assume Al Simmons will block him till '47, at which point one can benchmark him and enthusiasts/non enthusiasts of the Negro leagues can at least get him ranked properly against his peers.
   3. Chris Cobb Posted: February 28, 2005 at 05:05 PM (#1170380)
Since folks are waiting on the MLEs, let me say 1) I'm sorry I haven't been able to get them ready yet and 2) I will at least get Suttles done tonight. I spent more time reviewing the conversion factor than I expected, and I've been working on some other fine-tuning of the system to reduce the inflationary effects of regressing early and late seasons and other things.
   4. ronw Posted: February 28, 2005 at 06:31 PM (#1170559)
1946 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. All-Star candidate is roughly the top 16 pitchers and top 32 players. MVP candidate is anyone with double the WS numbers of the worst All-Star candidate in that season. I have incorporated WARP and Pennants Added.)

1. Turkey Stearnes Being #25 on Bill James' all time list can get you a #1 vote from me. PHOM 1946

2. Al Simmons By many accounts, an arrogant man, but a good hitter. MVP Candidate 1925, 1929-1931, All-Star Candidate 1924, 1926-1928, 1932-1934, 1936, 1938 (13 HOM seasons). PHOM 1946.

3. John Beckwith Great hitter who has been tarnished by history. PHOM 1942.

4. Mule Suttles At first glance, it seems Beckwith was a better fielder, and may have struck out less. They seem to be equivalent hitters.

5. George Van Haltren Only one season among top 8 players (1898). Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

6. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

7. Jimmy Ryan Had a nice peak 1888-1891, better than both Beckley and Van Haltren. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

8. Earl Averill Starting conservatively, may move up if I decide to credit his PCL play. Even without it, he was extremely dominant during his career. MVP Candidate 1931, 1932, 1934, All-Star Candidate 1929-30, 1933, 1935-1938. (10 HOM seasons)

9. Eppa Rixey Consistently above average. Looking at measures other than Win Shares, he barely sneaks by Grimes. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1920-1925, 1927-1929, war credit 1918 (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1939.

10. Wes Ferrell Best pitcher peak on the board, even including Dizzy Dean. MVP Candidate 1930, 1935-1936. All-Star Candidate 1929, 1931-1934, 1937. (9 HOM seasons)

11. Burleigh Grimes I think he is being overlooked by the electorate, especially given his 1918-1924 peak. MVP candidate 1918, 1920. All-Star candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1930. (10 HOM seasons).

12. Dobie Moore I realized my Hughie Jennings argument (one or two more great seasons would put him over the top) applies to add Moore to my ballot.

13. Dick Lundy If actually a 122 OPS+ hitter, he deserves to rate higher.

14. Bill Monroe Lack of documentation hurts him.

15. Tommy Leach Consistently at the top of his weaker league. MVP candidate 1908. All-Star candidate 1901-1907, 1909-1910, 1913-1914. (12 HOM seasons)


LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Joe Sewell - Looks like the best of the available major league infielders to me, but is looking less impressive over time. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1921-1929, 1931-1933 (12 HOM seasons).

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown, Vance or perhaps even Waddell. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. Pitchers ahead of him include Rixey, Grimes, Ferrell, Redding, Mendez, Mays, Willis and Cooper. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)

George Sisler – A decent peak but surprisingly only one 30+ WS season. Averill’s peak was better. MVP candidate 1917, 1920. All-Star candidate 1916-1922, 1925, 1927-1928. (10 HOM seasons.)

Newt Allen – Joins the list of Negro League solid candidates. Was Allen, George Scales, or Sammy T. Hughes better among 30’s 2B?

Wally Berger – Similar to Averill, but just below, due to the earlier dropoff.MVP Candidate 1931, 1933-34, All-Star Candidate 1930, 1932, 1935-1938. (9 HOM seasons).

Dizzy Dean – To borrow a euphemism from another zany announcer: “Juuuust a bit outside.” Maybe Averill should give Diz a season or two of credit for likely causing Dizzy’s exclusion from the HOM. MVP Candidate 1934-1936, All-Star Candidate 1932-33, 1937. (6 HOM seasons)

Missing from my PHOM:

Terry (will make it some day)
Coveleski (will make it some day)
Vance (will make it some day)
Faber (will make it some day)
Thompson (will never make it)
   5. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 28, 2005 at 07:00 PM (#1170634)
1 (-)Al Simmons--Best career value on the board

2 (-)Turkey Stearnes--I'm not completely convinced that I have the order of the top 2 correct, but it won't matter. Both should and will get in.

3 (2)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

4 (-)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

5 (3)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

6 (7)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

7 (-)Newt Allen--Start him here for now…a likely candidate to drop down in the near future.

8 (4)Joe Sewell
9 (5)John Beckwith--These two will likely be tied at the hip on my ballot until one of them gets in.

10 (8)Burleigh Grimes--Obviously, not as peak-heavy as some of the others, and there were certainly some below-average seasons thrown in here, but I think that doesn't hurt a pitcher as much as it does a hitter.

11 (11)Eddie Cicotte--Career and peak numbers synch up fairly closely to Waddell, but Cicotte lacked the dominance.

12 (10)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

13 (-)Mule Suttles--For now, I don't see him ranking higher than Beckwith. I promise to investigate him further in the future.

14 (12)Roger Bresnahan--The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing).

15 (9)Donie Bush--Gets extra points for being a top-notch leadoff type.

Dropping out: Kiki Cuyler, George J Burns, Carl Mays

Top 10 omissions: Eppa Rixey and GVH lack the requisite peak to make it on, Clark Griffith is close, but with 6 pitchers already on the ballot, it's not a slam dunk that he'll ever make it back on.
   6. andrew siegel Posted: February 28, 2005 at 09:03 PM (#1170924)
(1) Turkey Stearns (new)-- The available evidence has him as a slightly more valuable offensive and defensive player than Simmons. The top 3 are close.

(2) Mule Suttles (new)-- Bill James has Al Simmons 71st all-time and ranks Johnny Mize, Hank Greenberg, Harmon Killibrew, and Willie McCovey all in the 60's. I think those guys are very similar in value to Suttles and agree that they rank fractionally ahead of Simmons. I initially had Simmons ahead of Suttles on uncertainty principles, but my policy is to vote for excluded players based on my best assessment of their abilities without an uncertainty penalty.

(3) Al Simmons (new)-- Though I'd make him wait a year, a worthy first-ballot inductee.

(4) Hughie Jennings (3rd)--Nothing left to say.

(5) Wes Farrell (6th)-- Slips past Duffy and Van Haltren as the swarm of OF's make them look just a little bit less special.

(6) Hugh Duffy (4th)-- One of the very best players in baseball during the first half of the 1890s.

(7) George Van Haltren (5th)--The totality of his accomplishments are overwhelming (14 consecutive very good seasons, pitching success, PCL superstar before he moves to major leagues, solid PCL seasons after he leaves the majors).

(8) Cupid Childs (9th)-- Like him a lot; moves up or down only based on my shifting evaluation of other guys.

(9) Charley Jones (8th)--Big OPS+ numbers need to be discounted but still worthy of ballot spot.

(10) John Beckwith (12th)--Convinced that his peak was a little bigger than the latest projections, so I moved him up a few spots.

(11) Edd Roush (10th)--Would be an easy HoMer if his league had been better; as is , on the bubble.

(12) Eppa Rixey (7th)--Ditto. Drops because I had been ignoring the difference between the quality of the leagues during his era.

(13) Dobie Moore (11th)-- Not quite the hitter Beckwith was and a much shorter career, but hard not to like his level of offense from a solid SS.

(14) Earl Averill (new)-- Very similar to Joe Sewell or Lip Pike in that all the better players from their eras are or will be in and all of the worse players have seemingly been permanently rejected.

(15) Burleigh Grimes (13th)-- Very close to Rixey, though a bit behind on career value.

Next ten in order: Sewell (14th), Chance (15th), Berger (new), Beckley, Sisler, Ryan, Bresnahan, Schang, Lundy, Redding.

Dizzy Dean is somewhere between 25th and 35th. So is Buzz Arlett (who is functionally making his ballot debut this week). Newt Allen is in the Miller Huggins/Del Pratt range, which puts him outside the top 50.

I don't think Griffith pitched enough innings in comparison to his contemporaries to make it with his level of quality, though he's in my top 30.

Beckley and Sewell just miss the ballot. Not a knock on them, but a compliment to their competition.
   7. David C. Jones Posted: March 01, 2005 at 02:30 AM (#1171676)
My official ballot, submitted after much consideration, meditation, and deep thinking...

1.) Turkey Stearnes. Based on all the available evidence, I believe this guy was similar to Hank Aaron, maybe with a bit better peak and not as much career value. Probably should rank a little lower than Aaron, maybe somewhere around Frank Robinson.

2.) Mule Suttles. I think he was probably somewhere in the neighborhood of Harmon Killebrew. Great power, no defense.

3.) Al Simmons. I'm not a huge Simmons fan, but 375 Win Shares is mighty tough to ignore, especially when it comes with a peak like he enjoyed from 1929-1931. I think he and Suttles are very close. This is where I have them for now.

4.) John Beckwith. Tops on my ballot last year, moved down by three more deserving candidates.

5.) Dick Lundy. Likewise falls down three notches.

6.) Spotswood Poles. Ditto.

7.) Jose Mendez.

8.) Dick Redding. In retrospect, I was uncomfortable placing him ahead of Bill Foster, but thankfully Foster was elected anyway.

9.) Edd Roush. I believe he is a very deserving candidate, who may well leapfrog some of the Negro Leaguers ahead of him on my ballot in future years. 314 career Win Shares, terrific peak from 1917-1920.

10.) Rube Waddell. Dropping down a bit from where I had him last time. I moved him down further at first, after looking at the earned/unearned runs issue, but after further debate and consideration I feel he is better than Dizzy Dean, based on his superiority in innings pitched. Yes, I know Dean led the league in IP and Waddell didn't, but after looking at the numbers more carefully I don't believe there was any substantive difference between Waddell's durability and Dean's, and I think Waddell's peak is a touch longer and better than Dizzy's.

11.) Bill Monroe.

12.) Earl Averill. I think he's a borderline, deserving HOM candidate. 280 Win Shares with a very nice peak from 1931 to 1934. Lower than Roush because he wasn't as effective for as long; higher than Berger because he was effective for a bit longer.

13.) Gavvy Cravath. I'm going to keep beating the drum for this guy. If you look at his whole career, minor league + major league stats, I think he's deserving of more attention than he's getting.

14.) Dizzy Dean. Like Averill, borderline deserving candidate, in my estimation. I think Waddell is an interesting comp for Dizzy, and I have outlined above why I chose Rube over Dean.

15.) George Sisler. Just missed my ballot last time. This time he makes it. Obviously he had a terrific peak, and then fell off a cliff. I like him more than other guys with great peaks and short careers, like Jennings or Chance, because I think he played a bit more and his peak was a little better.

I think all fifteen of these guys are deserving HOMers. Guys who just missed my ballot: Wally Berger, Wes Ferrell, Eddie Cicotte, Addie Joss, Wally Schang, further down the infamous Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
   8. sunnyday2 Posted: March 01, 2005 at 04:44 AM (#1171986)
1946

1. Al Simmons (new, PHoM 1946).
2. Turkey Stearnes (new, PHoM 1946). Not much to choose here. Simmons listed as a LF but played a lot of CF, too. So has more defensive WS than any LF to go with better career OPS than Yaz or Goose.

3. Hughie Jennings (2 last year-4-2, PHoM 1927). 4. Dobie Moore (4-6-5, PHoM 1942). Another interesting pairing.

5. George Sisler (3-5-3, PHoM 1938).
6. Mule Suttles (new). Could move up upon further study. But Sisler was Joe Jackson with a glove for 8 years.

7. Rube Waddell (5-7-4, PHoM 1932). Six years at 152 ERA+ is the best prime available. Factor in UER and he's still ahead of the pack.

8. Tommy Bond (6-9-11, PHoM 1929). Massive value. Give half of his WS to his defenders, then normalize for short seasons and he lands here.

9. Edd Roush (11-x). A far cry from Simmons but a nice combo of peak and prime compared to the merely mortal candidates.

10. Larry Doyle (8-12-15). Hard to pick among Doyle, Childs and Monroe.

11. Addie Joss (13-15-9). Second best prime ERA+.

12. Pie Traynor (10-14-7). Steady.

13. Ed Williamson (9-11-6, PHoM 1924). Better than Pie at his best.

14. Eddie Cicotte (14-x). 12 years prime, almost 3000 IP, 129 ERA+.

15. John Beckwith (15-10-13). Could hit.

Dropped out: Charley Jones (12-12-11, PHoM 1921). Sorry Charley.

New of note: Dizzy Dean dropped from #9 on prelim. Prime ERA+ is indeed not what I had expected.

Close:

16-20. Averill, Lundy, C.Jones, Sewell, Browning
21-25. Griffith, Dean, Bancroft, McCormick, H. Wilson
26-30. Bresnahan, Childs, Duffy, Cuyler, Welch.

Required:

Rixey made my ballot in 1941. He, Ferrell and Van Haltren are all around #40-45 or so.
   9. sunnyday2 Posted: March 01, 2005 at 04:47 AM (#1171994)
Note that my #4 above--Dobie Moore--is listed above next to Hughie Jennings. It looked like it was on a new line. Guess not.
   10. David C. Jones Posted: March 01, 2005 at 06:02 AM (#1172109)
I forgot to discuss the top 10 returnees that I have left off.

Eppa Rixey: I guess I'm more of a peak guy than a steady career guy, and Rixey's peak just doesn't move me.

Clark Griffith: Again, he was a hell of a pitcher in 1898, but I'd probably put him below Rixey if push came to shove. His peak isn't much better, and his career value is significantly shorter.

Hughie Jennings: Like I said last time, the Frank Chance of shortstops. I like peak, but I also like guys who play. Jennings played in 100 or more games only 7 times. Played in half as many games as contemporary Bill Dahlen. He's in the 20s on my ballot.

Joe Sewell. I don't get the fascination with this guy. By Win Shares, he doesn't look much better than Dave Bancroft. More bat, less glove than Beauty. Sewell has 277 career WS. In his best 3-year-stretch, he put up 76 WS. Bancroft had 269 WS with a 3-year-peak of 84 WS. Someone explain to me why Sewell gets so much support and Bancroft very little.

George Van Haltren. On the surface, he looks impressive, but I have a few quibbles. In his peak years by WS, he's playing in diluted leagues--specifically 1888-1891. He was very good in 1898, but otherwise I don't see a tremendous peak value. Also, my first inclination upon looking at the guys who have already been selected was that there were too many 19th century guys, and so it is possible that I have not fairly evaluated Van Haltren as a result. I will continue to ponder his value for future ballots, but for now he stays off.

Wes Ferrell. As noted above, Ferrell is not far from my ballot right now. I don't think he rates much below Dean, and I would probably put him in my Personal Hall of Merit. I expect him to show up on my ballot in future elections.
   11. Rusty Priske Posted: March 01, 2005 at 02:46 PM (#1172496)
PHoM: Al Simmons and Turkey Stearnes

1. Al Simmons (new) PHoM 1946

Stands above the pack. Easy pick for me.

2. George Van Haltren (3,5,3) PHoM 1912

One day, George, one day...

3. Eppa Rixey (4,7,6) PHoM 1939
4. Jake Beckley (5,6,4) PHoM 1913
5. Mickey Welch (6,8,7) PHoM 1929
6. Tommy Leach (7,9,8) PHoM 1921

No changes from 2-6, other than sliding up a notch.

7. Turkey Stearnes (new) PHoM 1946

Clearly an HoMer, but there are other, passed-over candidates that slot higher, in my opinion.

8. Edd Roush (8,10,10) PHoM 1942

9. Mule Suttles (new)

The third clear HoMer in the new group.

10. George Sisler (11,11,12) PHoM 1940

There is a little shuffling in the bottom third of my ballot.

11. Hugh Duffy (9,12,13) PHoM 1930

In a way I am amazed that Duffy didn't get in years ago. I'm not really complaining though.

12. Sam Rice (12,13,11) PHoM 1940

Overlooked.

13. Jimmy Ryan (10,14,14) PHoM 1914

Very overlooked.

14. Dobie Moore (13,15,x) PHoM 1932

15. Dick Lundy (14,x,15)

16-20. Monroe, Childs, Sewell, Griffith, Powell
21-25. Doyle, Grimes, Mullane, Hooper, Poles
26-30. Streeter, Burns, Cuyler, White, Allen
   12. jhwinfrey Posted: March 01, 2005 at 04:00 PM (#1172581)
March 12, 1946--20-year old pitcher Fidel Castro tries out for the Senators. He goes unsigned and returns to Cuba to pursue other interests.
April 18, 1946--Jackie Robinson makes his minor league debut with the Montreal Royals, hitting a home run in his second at bat, and ending the day with 3 hits, 4 RBI, 4 runs, and 2 stolen bases.
April 30, 1946--Bob Feller no-hits the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, the first pitcher to do so.
July 6, 1946--Leo Durocher, in a pre-game interview, says, "The nice guys are over there in last place, not in this dugout."
August 14, 1946--For the first time, separate admissions are charged for each game of a doubleheader, at Ebbets Field. Armageddon soon follows.

1946 Ballot:
1. Turkey Stearnes(ne): A great all-around player. Better fielding and a longer career give him the edge over Simmons. (1946)

2. Al Simmons(ne): Bucketfoot was no slouch, either. (1946)

3. Jake Beckley(6,3,5,4,4,3,3,4,8,5,4,2,2,2,3,3,1,4,4,2) I point to 1889-95 to those who say Beckley had no peak. Over six seasons, he had only one year with an OPS+ below 124. And he averaged 63 extra base hits a year. Leave out his slump of '92 and his peak is Jennings-esque. But while Jennings dropped off the map, Beckley added another 9 good seasons after his peak. (1927)

4. Mickey Welch(1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,7,6,5,3,1,1,2,4,2,5,5,3) A big-game, high-innings pitcher who'd get my vote with 250 wins. (1926)

5. Eppa Rixey(6,7,7,3,7,6,4) One of only two players to die after being elected but before being inducted to the Hall of Fame. And yes, I stole that from the HoF newsletter. (1939)

6. Mule Suttles(ne) I'm still not entirely sure whether he was Reggie Jackson or Bob Horner. I'll place him conservatively for now, but there's no disputing his big bat or his lengthy career.

7. Burleigh Grimes(5,6,4,8,7,5) Grimes may be the poster boy for my voting criteria. Long career? Check. Gray Ink? Check. Good hitter and fielder? Check-Check. He may never have been the best pitcher in the league, but I'd want him on my pitching staff any time. (1940)

8. John Beckwith(21,12,11,6) Will Beckwith stay strong through the next few ballots, full of good newcomers, and eventually get in? Or will he follow Monroe, Petway, and Poles to the bottom of the ballot? I'm rooting for the former. (1945)

9. Tommy Leach(9,7,5,7,8,8,6,10,9,7) Just a great all-around athlete. Speed and skill in the field and on the basepaths. (1942)

10. Dick Lundy(11,10,8) I see him as Rabbit Maranville with a better bat, basically.

11. Dick Redding(13,11,15,15,10,9,14,13,10) The fact that Redding is still waiting, not just for the HoM, but also for my PHoM, highlights the quality of the candidates.

12. Jose Mendez(4,8,13,13,11,10,8,14,14,11,10,15,14,11) A good hitter and sometimes dominant pitcher, he's just a hair behind Redding. (1932)

13. Carl Mays(9,10,9,7,5,6,9,8,13,12,9) Best submarine pitcher on the ballot. (1939)

14. Ben Taylor(11,8,8,6,4,3,4,5,5,9,8,12) Not quite Jake Beckley, in my view, but clearly better than Ed Konetchy. (1938)

15. Jim McCormick(15,nr,13,15,nr,15,12,11,9,8,9,12,11,16,15,13) When in doubt, put a 19th-century innings-eater on your ballot.

16-20: Maranville, Roush, Willis, Traynor, Petway
21-25: Quinn, Averill, Judy Johnson, Nip Winters, Poles
26-30: Luque, Hoyt, Marcelle, Ferrell, Bancroft

Newcomers:
22. Earl Averill--Dynamite with the bat, but only for 10 seasons. Not enough to contribute the value of the players listed above him.
36. Newt Allen--Ranked just below Bill Monroe.
65. Wally Berger--Ranks 10 slots better than Wally Pipp, thanks to his power.
Dizzy Dean doesn't make my top 100.

Obligatoires:
With 7 of last year's top 10 missing from my ballot, my career-heavy criteria is obviously in the minority. But I don't think that means I'm wrong. My personal feeling is that being great during 5-7 seasons is much easier, and less valuable to a team, than being good or very good over 15-20 seasons.
Clark Griffith, Wes Ferrell, Joe Sewell, George Sisler, George Van Haltren, and Hughie Jennings all failed to be productive enough over a long enough period of time to make my ballot.
   13. TomH Posted: March 01, 2005 at 04:36 PM (#1172636)
Someone explain to me why Sewell gets so much support and Bancroft very little.
--
Better league. Better sustained prime (good years together). Sewell a much better hitter. Win Shares says Bancroft was the better fielder, but WARP sees them even.
   14. Paul Wendt Posted: March 01, 2005 at 07:59 PM (#1173128)
jhwinfrey #12:
August 14, 1946--For the first time, separate admissions are charged for each game of a doubleheader, at Ebbets Field. Armageddon soon follows.

The holiday "doubleheaders" of the 1880s were separate admission games.

"A two-for-one doubleheader was first played in the NL on Monday, September 25,1882, in Worcester" after it was known that Philadelphia would replace Worcester in 1883. "The Worcester club had little incentive to adhere to league decorum concerning the rainout of its September 22 game with Providence." --Charlie Bevis, "Evolution of the Sunday Doubleheader" delivered to the Cooperstown Symposium 2003; winner of a SABR "best article" award
McFarland-SABR Baseball Research Award

Eppa Rixey(6,7,7,3,7,6,4) One of only two players to die after being elected but before being inducted to the Hall of Fame. And yes, I stole that from the HoF newsletter. (1939)

The other being George Wright? Or should that be one of two since 1939, when induction covered several years of elections?
   15. Ardo Posted: March 01, 2005 at 08:09 PM (#1173151)
1946 ballot:

From now on, I will only list ballot position for the previous four elections.

1. (new) Turkey Stearns. One of the top 75 players ever.

2. (new) Al Simmons. Ditto for top 100.

3. (4-3-6-1) John Beckwith. About where I would put Dick Allen, who I see as a roughly comparable player for both his offensive production and his hot temper.

4. (6-9-7-6) Edd Roush. Both his offense in context (five top 5's in OPS+) and his superior defense rank him as the best of the eligible CFs.

5. (new) Mule Suttles. Similar career path to Reggie Jackson in a higher-offense era. An eventual HoMer.

6. (new) Earl Averill. Like Edd Roush, a marvelous CF who played at a high level offensively and defensively. Mild boost for his final PCL year.

7. (7-7-8-5) Clark Griffith. Adjusted well to the post-1894 distance. His career record compares favorably to HoM inductee and contemporary Joe McGinnity.

8. (new-13-x-11) Dick Lundy. Re-evaluated ahead of the MLB middle infield class. Like Barry Larkin, he combined exceptional power and speed with a long career.

9. (x-x-10-7) Eppa Rixey. My study of the long-career pitchers convinced me that he belongs here. His peak in the mid-1920s is real.

10. (8-8-9-8) Joe Sewell. A clear notch above the MLB infield crew (Childs, Doyle, Lazzeri, Jennings, Bancroft, Maranville, Traynor) and not far below Frisch.

11. (3-5-4-4) George Sisler. There are many superior hitters on this ballot. Sisler's exemplary .340 career BA masks his lack of walks and (post-injury) power. Still a HoMer with pitching credit.

12. (x-x-12-9) Jose Mendez. The best Cuban pitcher of his era, who boasted a winning career record against strong MLB competition.

13. (x-11-13-10) Hugh Duffy. The HoF did right by admitting outstanding defensive CFs Roush and Duffy and excluding average defensive CFs Ryan and Van Haltren.

14. (new-14-12) Wes Ferrell. His ERA+ and (BB+H)/9 are not any better than his contemporaries Bridges and Warneke. A unique talent who didn't last long.

15. (11-12-15-14) Jake Beckley. I compared Beckley to another peakless/long career type, Harold Baines:

Beckley 2930 hits, 125 OPS+
Baines 2866 hits, 120 OPS+

Baines falls into the Hall of Very Good and won't be elected; Beckley, then, is a borderline case.

16-20: Redding, Schang, Williamson, Leach, D. Moore.
   16. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 01, 2005 at 08:21 PM (#1173183)
Baines falls into the Hall of Very Good and won't be elected; Beckley, then, is a borderline case.

Except Beckley was a much more important defensive player than Baines ever was.
   17. karlmagnus Posted: March 01, 2005 at 09:21 PM (#1173372)
And Beckley, on the figures you quote, was about 5% better than Baines which is a lot on these ballots. Incidentally, I am souring on Suttles; his MLE has the same number of hits as Sisler, and he equiv-batted .298 to Sisler's .340, neither walking much as far as one can tell -- the eras being different, but Suttles' equiv-ers higher offense, if anything.. So why is Suttles higher?
   18. TomH Posted: March 01, 2005 at 09:27 PM (#1173392)
Power. Huge diff.
   19. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 01, 2005 at 09:30 PM (#1173403)
So why is Suttles higher?

Suttles is still better than Sisler,but unless he's elected this "year," I think he'll move down considerably next time. I'll be reevaluating him myself in '47, though I want to see what Chris' WS numbers say before making my final verdict about him.
   20. andrew siegel Posted: March 01, 2005 at 09:43 PM (#1173451)
I've been going back through Chris's numbers, the raw stats, the I-9 projections, and any other Negro League numbers I can get my hands on.

I seem to have Suttles too high.

On the other hand, I'm becoming increasingly concerned that we are underrating Lundy, Moore, and Beckwith. At first blush it seems strange to elect 7 or 8 guys who played a lot of SS in the Negro Leagues, but I think there may be an explanation. We are unlikely to elect a single 20th-century Negro League 2B and will elect somehwere between 0-2 Negro League 3B (depending on whether you count Beckwith and what you think of Dandridge). It may be that, given the broad talent spectrum in the league (some guys high-A or AA quality, some guys as good as Ty Cobb), the best infielders were going to play SS disproportionately (as they do in little league, college, and the low minors). Perhaps some of the guys we are considering as Negro League SS would have been HoM 2B or 3B if they had had an opportunity to play in the major leagues (Moore? Home Run Johnson? Wells? Beckwith?).
   21. karlmagnus Posted: March 01, 2005 at 10:17 PM (#1173561)
I agree that I will have Beckwith above Suttles, on the evidence Chris has provided on both -- probably just at the edge of my ballot, with Suttles around #20. Eagerly awaiting Stearnes, to see if our a priori belief that he was better is correct.
   22. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 02, 2005 at 02:58 AM (#1173971)
It’s hOmscar Week, and I think Bob Ho(M)pe is once again hosting the ceremony this year.

And this year’s award for

The Most-Electable First-time Duo goes to….
1.Al Simmons: 390 162adjWS with a peak of about 110 for three years, 175 for five years, and 300 for 10 years is simply awesome.
2.Turkey Stearnes: With nothing but his reputation as one of the Negro League’s greatest players, I’m positioning him here.

Biggest Leapfrog on Dr. Chaleeko’s Ballot ….
3.John Beckwith: This is a big jump for Beckwith, but in looking at him compared to his peers and seeing Heilmann and Simmons, outfielders, as having careers of comparable quality and length to his own, I’m convinced that I’ve been underappreciating his value, greatness, and merit. Easily the best infielder on the board.

Academy Lifetime Achievement Award …
4.George Van Haltren for his long and distinguished work as a wonderful centerfielder in the 1890s, give a hand to old George as we wheel him out from the wings.

Best Player with a Last Name That Rhymes with Orange Roughy …
5.Hugh Duffy: A much better Duffy than Duffy Dyer…. Here’s what separates the Simmonses from the Duffys. Simmons’s best 3-year peak in WS was worth 1 WS per season more than Duffy’s. His best 5-year peak in WS was worth about 1.5 more WS per season more than Duffy’s. His best 10-year prime in WS was worth about 4 WS per season more than Duffy’s. And over their best 15 year extended primes, Simmons outpaced Duffy by 3 per season. The line between being a clear HOMer and a borderline candidate is less than 10 runs contributed per season, but it sure adds up quickly.

The George Van Haltren Memorial Lifetime hOmscar for Being a Really Good Pitcher for a Really Long Time …
6.Eppa Rixey for being a consistently good to great hurler during the administrations of at least four presidents (Wilson, Harding, Coolidge, Hoover if I’m not mistaken).

Best Supporting Power-Hitting Outfielder goes to …
7.Mule Suttles: Placing lower than I expected. I may very well bump him up, depending on how he comes out in the WS department, but at this point, he looks to me like a guy with a long career and good-not-great rates. Better than the likes of Manush, not quite on par with an Al Simmons. The MLEs suggest five seasons of a SLG over .550. Compare with Beckwith who had six such seasons in a shorter career, and I conclude that Beckwith was a little more of an impact player than Suttles. In addition, the remarks that paint Suttles as a free swinger suggest that because his AVG wasn’t as high as Beckwith’s, he may not have created quite as many runs as JB. So for now Suttles and his long, productive career slot here, pending further considerations.

Best Hollywoodesque Name on a HOM Ballot …
8.George Burns: The opposite of his Hollywood namesake, he had a relatively short career with a big peak. Very Duffyesque without the CF defense and without quite so much prime and career value to bolster him. Maybe he should have smoked more cigars?

Best Leading Pitcher in an Early 20th Century Cuban League …
9.Jose Mendez: Great peak candidate, with impressive credentials in well-documented Cuban seasons and against white competition as well.

Best Centerfielder That I’m Not Exactly Sure What to Do With Anymore …
10.Spots Poles: I’ve been down on Poles lately, not quite knowing which direction to take him. His speed and defense played much better in his era and probably in the style of play his teams favored, and that’s not an inconsiderable matter. On the other hand, that’s what’s keeping him from dropping behind Averill.

Best Ballot Newcomer Who Played by One of His Given Names….
11.Howard Earl Averill: Adding that extra 31 MLEWS PCL season did, in fact, move him up my ballot from fighting with Ferrell to ahead of Eddddd. Remarkable consistency over a shortish career, but without the peak of a Duffy or Burns despite similar career WS totals. And yes, he gives me another chance to loose my apparent CF fetish on the world.

Easiest Guy to Slot on My Ballot …
12.Edd Roush: Another year for double-d on my ballot. Like sands through the hour glass, these are the days of his life.

Third-Best Animal Name on My Ballot…
13.Tommy Leach: Great defender at third and center with nice career WS totals and a reasonable peak.

Best Peak Performance in a Short Career at Short …
14.Hughie Jennings: The Scarlet Peakernil survives another day to battle the forces of careerism everywhere in the kingdom!!!!

And finally, the hOmscar for the Best Supporting Peak Performance in a Short Career at Short goes to …
15.Dobie Moore: No Jennings, certainly, but a truly impressive peak performer with around ten years of active duty when you factor in some military service time spent playing ball.

IT HURTS TO BE A hOmSCAR LOSER, BUT I’M SURE THEIR DRESSES WERE STUNNING NONETHELESS

Wes Ferrell: Ultimately lost out to Averill’s having one more good season.

Clark Griffith: Remains in his usual spot just off the ballot, he’s the Susan Lucci of the hOmscars.

Joe Sewell: Consolation prize: Best Leading Man in a Down Time for Major League Shortstops.

George Sisler: Winner of the Best Peak Performance for a First Baseman with a Longer Career Than Frank Chance, but that’s one of those technical awards that Jennifer Garner or some other tertiary star hosts without fanfare the day before the big event.

Wally Berger: One of my personal favorites this year, an easy winner for Best Short Career by an Outfielder.

Dizzy Dean: Best Animated Short, but not long enough to get onto my ballot.

Newt Allen: Long-career guys with good gloves that hit around the league average aren’t usually favorites with the academy, so no hOmscar for Newt.

And look, we finished up the hOmscar telecast before midnight!
   23. Adam Schafer Posted: March 02, 2005 at 07:49 AM (#1174323)
The definition of merit that I go by "A quality deserving praise or approval". That's mainly a career guy for me. Someone that is strictly peak and no career to support it (i.e. Dizzy Dean or Hughie Jennings) will not closely fit my definition of merit.

1. Turkey Stearnes (n/a) - He earnes the #1 spot from me this week.

2. Al Simmons (n/a) - coming into the election, I thought he'd be #1. Stearnes proved me wrong

3. Mickey Welch (5) - Big drop for Mickey this week

4. Wes Ferrell (6) - Hard to put him here without the career that I'd normally love to see, but his peak was good and just barely lasted long enough for me to rank him this high.

5. Burleigh Grimes (7) - Tough debate on whether to have him above Rice or not

6. Mule Suttles (n/a) - Not overly confident that I have him too high or too low. This seemed like the best spot to slot him for this year

7. Sam Rice (8) - This is the type of consistency that I love

8. Pie Traynor (9) - One of the best 3b ever

9. Earl Averill (n/a) - Consistency is key for me...what he could have done had he been in the majors sooner...

10. Eppa Rixey (10) - A bit of a drop for Rixey. I've decided that Grimes is more deserving of the word "Merit" by my definition.

11. George Sisler (11) - This is going to be an unpopular vote I know, but his peak was great, and there's enough career for me put him this high. What George has really done, is convinced me to move Beckley up on my ballot again.

12. Clark Griffith (12) - Same old story for Clark

13. Jake Beckley (13) - Not far off from Sisler.

14. Rube Waddell (14) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

15. Wally Schang (15) - Lots of career value for a catcher. I really wish I could justify having him higher right now. A definate HOM'er in my opinion. Just too many other good players on the ballot right now.

16. Joe Sewell (16) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out. Same problem as Schang at the moment.

16. John Beckwith (17) - Ok, I'll jump on the Beckwith bandwagon too. After his high ranking last "year" I realized that I had better reevaluate him b/c I was obviously missing something very important.

17. Dick Lundy (18) - I have him slotted just slightly worse than Sewell

18. George Van Haltren (19) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.

-------------My Personal HOM Line----------------

19. Jose Mendez (19) - I haven't been able to convince myself that he deserves a spot higher than this.

20. Roger Bresnahan (20) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I would've ranked Roger higher had he caught more and played the OF less during his peak years.
   24. Adam Schafer Posted: March 02, 2005 at 07:52 AM (#1174325)
not that it matters, but Beckwith should've been 17th, and everyone below him adjusted accordingly
   25. OCF Posted: March 02, 2005 at 09:09 AM (#1174389)
Posted as Dizzy Dean

Dizzy Dean: Best Animated Short

Who you calling short? I'm a big strapping country boy!
   26. kthejoker Posted: March 02, 2005 at 12:56 PM (#1174449)
Random thought from a non-voter: Where is the love for the best white third baseman of the 1920s - Pie Traynor?
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: March 02, 2005 at 01:41 PM (#1174462)
ktj:
look for the Pie Traynor discussion within the "Selected 20th Century Players" link on the main menu.
Shortest answer is that his numbers were vastly inflated by his era/league.
   28. Rusty Priske Posted: March 02, 2005 at 01:52 PM (#1174465)
I'm confused. Adam says that Van Haltren "moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan" (which I heartily support), but then he has him off ballot when he has Beckley at #13.

Shouldn't "ahead" mean higher than?
   29. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 02, 2005 at 03:17 PM (#1174514)
Rusty, look at Adam's #3, too. :-)
   30. Michael Bass Posted: March 02, 2005 at 04:35 PM (#1174641)
Ah, the old obselete recycled comment from past ballots. I've pulled that one many times myself. :)
   31. Buddha Posted: March 02, 2005 at 06:32 PM (#1174941)
1) Simmons: Easy pick.

2) Stearns: Easy pick.

3) Sisler: Still underrated.

4) Waddell: Still love the K's and the ERA+. Dominating pitcher with a dimestore discount head. He'll never make it, but I'll keep voting for him anyway.

5) Duffy: What a peak.

6) Welch: Reevaluated him. We need more pitchers to go in. 300 wins is nothing to sneeze at. Neither is 500 innings pitched in one season. Seems to be almost on the level of his contemporaries who have made it.

7) Suttles: Seems about right.

8) Averill: Career was too short to be any higher but too good to be much lower.

9) Beckley: I have trouble placing Beckley. Never seemed to be in the upper-elite when he played, but he played for so long at a high enough level where I feel he deserves consideration.

10) Sewell: Great contact hitter. Like Beckley, he never seemed to be among the ultra-elite. However, unlike Beckly, he didn't stick around for almost 20 years BUT he did play a superb shortstop.

11) Traynor: Reevaluated him. Similar to Sewell. Very good offensive numbers at a defensive position. Just as good or better than Groh, IMO.

12) Van Haltren: Duffy without the monster peak.

13) Sam Rice: Similar to Beckley, but played a corner outfield slot instead of first base back when first base was a lot tougher than it is now.

14) Cuyler: Similar to Duffy but without the enormous peak year. Similar to Rice and GVH. Have a hard time sorting out the three of them.

15) Beckwith: Moving down with more and more players coming onto the ballot.


Near misses: Rixey, Grimes, Hack Wilson, Cravath, Frank Chance.
   32. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 02, 2005 at 07:06 PM (#1175038)
Ah, the old obselete recycled comment from past ballots. I've pulled that one many times myself. :)

It's probably easier to count the voters who haven't recycled their past comments. :-)
   33. jhwinfrey Posted: March 02, 2005 at 10:31 PM (#1175753)
Eppa Rixey(6,7,7,3,7,6,4) One of only two players to die after being elected but before being inducted to the Hall of Fame. And yes, I stole that from the HoF newsletter. (1939)

The other being George Wright? Or should that be one of two since 1939, when induction covered several years of elections?


The other listed in the HOF newsletter was Leon Day, in 1995.
   34. Daryn Posted: March 02, 2005 at 11:08 PM (#1175867)
1. Al Simmons – a little uncomfortable with him ahead of Stearnes, but the devil you know.

2. Turkey Stearnes – I could have him first or third, so second seems okay. It is only these top-3 that I really am sure are Hall of Merit-orious.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

5. George Sisler – Hits impress me and he had a lot of them, plus a better peak than Beckley. I’ve put Beckley ahead of him because I’m a career voter.

6. Eppa Rixey
7. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between these two candidates. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on.

8. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind Rube Foster, Rogan and Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

10. Sam Rice – close to Beckley – I’ve dropped him after five years of insisting that he was equal to Beckley and Sisler. I took another look at his OPS+ and some traditional stats and feel comfortable with him here.

11. Mule Suttles – I can’t really peg him. He is somewhere between Stearnes and Monroe. I almost put him right behind Beckwith and I almost put him right behind Stearnes. That’s a 16 spot swing. This is my most uncertain ballot placement ever.

12. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). My personal, in/out line is here.

13. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Hoyt (who I am surprised is not making any ballots), Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin. I have Ferrell next in line and he may move up – I like hitting pitchers, dislike the unbalance created by extreme advocacy.

14. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

15. Joe Sewell – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense. I don’t see him as a HoMer though. Back on the ballot. No throwing infielders in my top-14, then 5 straight.

Others

18. Beckwith – I’m assuming he was pretty bad on defence. The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 297 career WS. I’m going with 95% of Cobb’s estimate. I like him better than Monroe and Moore. I’m pretty sure he’s not Hornsby.


20. Wes Ferrell

24. Dizzy Dean

28.George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

29.Earl Averill

30.Buzz Arlett – can 350+ WS be a correct translation? Like GVH, he pitched some too. Any of these three guys (28 to 30) could move up, but I'm not sure which one(s) should.

38. Jennings – he’d be lower for me if you guys weren’t all so sure he was great.
   35. karlmagnus Posted: March 03, 2005 at 03:13 AM (#1176339)
Averill, Berger and Dean all short careers (Berger/Dean very short indeed) so below the ballot, as neither Berger nor Dean were so outstanding as to force their way onto it. If we won’t elect Hack Wilson, why them? Simmons better than Goslin, and could go just ahead of or just behind Beckley. Stearnes a touch better than either, I think. Suttles off the bottom, but Beckwith moves up again from the comparison. Allen just off the consideration set.

1. (N/A) Turkey Stearnes Modestly but significantly better than both Beckley and Simmons, one of our best NL’ers.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1) Jake Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

3. (N/A) Al Simmons 2927 hits, at OPS+ of 132 just beats Beckley (shorter career when you correct for season length), but Beckley played a more valuable defensive position. TB+BB/PA .557, TB+BB/Outs .879.

4. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

5. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

10. (N/A-12-10-9) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP, decided I’d been undervaluing him, so moved him onto the ballot and fairly well up it.
   36. karlmagnus Posted: March 03, 2005 at 03:15 AM (#1176340)
11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10) Sam Leever. Dropped him a bit, since nobody shares my enthusiasm – pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice. Decided he’s not quite as good as Rixey or Leever, after seeing Kelly’s figures.

13. (N/A) John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson. Also, Chris Cobb’s equivalents are looking more solid to me. Definitely better than Suttles.

14 (N/A-12-12) Tony Lazzeri Shortish career but a pretty good one, and he just beats Childs all round. TB+BB/PA .521, TB+BB/Outs .816, OPS+121, only downside is only 1840 hits.

15. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 Downgrade a bit because of short career and Hornsby is a LOT better (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

17. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above where Coveleski was.

18. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell 2226 hits, TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .721, so not sure why OPS+ as low as 109. You could argue he’s better than Schang and Childs, you can’t argue he’s worse than Groh, especially as he was mainly a SS.

19. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice 2987 hits, but OPS+ only 112 TB+BB/PA.455, TB+BB/Outs .702, so not as good a hitter as Sewell on raw data.

20. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

21. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

22. Mule Suttles. About halfway between Reggie Jackson and Dave Kingman -- out rather than in, I feel.

23. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes. ERA+ nothing special at 107, but 270-212 is the best on the ballot apart from Welch, and he hit better than any pitcher on the ballot apart from Mays.

24. (N/A) Heinie Manush Shorter but better career than Rice. 2524 hits, TB+BB/PA .495, TB+BB/Outs .745. OPS+121.

25. Earl Averill Shorter but better career than Manush 2019 hits, OPS+133, TB+BB/PA .577, TB+BB/Outs .935. Wilson’s better still

26. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

27. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134. His unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

28. Wes Ferrell Hon. Mention really, because of his hitting. Even Mays is only hovering around 15, and Ferrell not as good a pitcher, for not as long.

29. (N/A) Dick Lundy Just a few spots below Sewell, based on his MLEs.
30. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
31. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
32. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
33. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
34. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
35. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
36. Kiki Cuyler
37. Jack Quinn
38. Deacon McGuire
39. Tony Mullane
40. Pye Traynor
41. Jim McCormick
42. Dick Redding
43. Joe Judge
44. Edd Roush
45. Spotswood Poles.
46. Larry Doyle
47. Roger Bresnahan.
48. Wayte Hoyt. Better than Pennock, not as good as Quinn, so about here.
49. Harry Hooper.
50. Jules Thomas.
51. Wilbur Cooper
52. Bruce Petway.
53. Jack Clements
54. Bill Monroe
55. Jose Mendez
56. Herb Pennock
57. Chief Bender
58. Ed Konetchy
59. Jesse Tannehill
60. Bobby Veach
61. Lave Cross
62. Tommy Leach. Inferior to Childs, even if he’d played 3B his whole career, which he didn’t. Dropped him 1, as overall, Cross was better, too.
63. Tom York
   37. Jim Sp Posted: March 03, 2005 at 03:42 AM (#1176396)
Dean just doesn’t have enough career for me. Billy Rogell had a nice career, nowhere near the ballot. Allen is around #30.

1)Stearnes--#1 and #2 are easy choices.
2)Simmons--#1 and #2 are easy choices.
3)Suttles--he’ll get in soon unless Chris has some surprising new info.
4)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while. Hmmm…maybe I need to reconsider Roush.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
6)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. Stands out from the extreme lack of catching candidates recently.
7)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
8)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. He made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
9)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
10)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
11)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
12)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
13)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
14)Cuyler--I think he’ll be below the in/out line.
15)Berger--I suspect Berger will not quite make my HoM, it’s close though.


Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Hugh Duffy—Good hitter, great fielder. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan are even in my estimation, but off the ballot.
   38. David C. Jones Posted: March 03, 2005 at 03:42 AM (#1176397)
18. Beckwith – I’m assuming he was pretty bad on defence.

From Riley: "When he wasn't swinging his 38-inch bat, the hulking 220-pounder could play any position on the field. He began his career as a shortstop-catcher, progressed to a third baseman-shortstop during his prime seasons, and was a third baseman in his waning years."

Aside from being a "hulking 220-pounder," I get the impression that as a third baseman who could also play shortstop he was probably at least average defensively. Assuming he was bad seems like an unwarranted stretch to me.
   39. Daryn Posted: March 03, 2005 at 05:33 PM (#1177264)
David,

I got my impression of Beckwith's defence from the Beckwith thread (see posts 5, 13, 14, 15, 18 and 30 for example). I perceive him to be a "below average" or "marginal" fielder at key defensive positions (both Cobb quotes). Cobb's translated defensive WS seem to support this. If this is wrong, he'd probably move on to my ballot.
   40. Chris Cobb Posted: March 03, 2005 at 06:20 PM (#1177396)
I got my impression of Beckwith's defence from the Beckwith thread (see posts 5, 13, 14, 15, 18 and 30 for example). I perceive him to be a "below average" or "marginal" fielder at key defensive positions (both Cobb quotes). Cobb's translated defensive WS seem to support this. If this is wrong, he'd probably move on to my ballot.

Two quick notes on this:

1) The defensive win shares in my projections are not translations of fielding statistics. We have next to no useful fielding data (a few snippets from Gary A.), so these and other fielding win shares for NeL players are showing how many win shares the player would likely have earned _if_ their reputation as a fielder is basically accurate. Since the fielding win shares are derived from the reputation, they can't serve as evidence to support its accuracy.

2) In the later parts of the Beckwith thread (see posts 256-260), the issue of Beckwith's defense was revisited. Those posts are not conclusive by any means, but they open up some new perspectives on the question of Beckwith's defensive value.
   41. Daryn Posted: March 03, 2005 at 07:39 PM (#1177630)
Yeah, Chris, I did understand the duplicative nature of the WS estimates, but I took it to be your "conclusion" regarding Beckwith's defense based on the limited info available. I remember when I read your quote of James' comparison of Beckwith to Bobby Bonilla (when you first posted it a couple of weeks ago), thinking that is exactly my physical image of Beckwith -- talented athlete, big boomer, but lackadaisical or perhaps disinterested on defense. I know a lot of this is guesswork, and I guess I am erring on the side of caution with Beckwith.
   42. Chris Cobb Posted: March 03, 2005 at 09:59 PM (#1178201)
On "conclusions": I guess I would rather see the defensive win shares simply as my modeling of the prevailing opinion, rather than as my judgment about the truth of that opinion.

This relates to Howie's point about grist and the mill, I suppose :-).

The offensive MLEs I am more willing to claim as my conclusions about what a reasonable interpretation of the existing data would look like.
   43. Chris Cobb Posted: March 03, 2005 at 10:01 PM (#1178205)
Conclusions, I should add, arrived at on the basis of the group's discussions about what "reasonable" is.
   44. TomH Posted: March 03, 2005 at 10:43 PM (#1178312)
1946 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

Four newbies make my ballot.
I reiterate, once again, that we are short-changing the 1890s guys.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Al Simmons {new}
Comparable to Goose Goslin, and slightly better in most every facet.
2-Turkey Stearns {new}
Consensus great NeL star. Could easily be #1, but for lack of info.
3-Clark Griffith (1) [5]
Vastly, vastly underrated by conventional stats. I’ve said it so often and in so many ways, I’m getting tired of saying it.

--small PhoM line drawn here----

4-Joe Sewell (4) [8]
He may not have any one stat that defines him, but overall he won lots of ballgames for his team. Not quite Alan Trammell, but beats Dave Concepcion. Moves up this week as I ask the question “what is there NOT to like about him?” He hit great for a shortstop. He fielded great too.
5-Wes Ferrell (5) [7]
Value of at least Rube Waddell, even though they are as different as could be. ERA of 4.04 doesn’t seem impressive...until you compare it to the league/park average ERA of 4.72! When you add in the bat, he’s a very viable candidate.
6-John Beckwith (3) [3]
He looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew, with a shorter career and some baggage. Which ain’t bad at all. Consensus opinion of NeL experts, while possibly tainted, keeps him lower on my ballot.
7-John McGraw (6) [[absurdly low]]
Is sticking to your guns courage, or arrogance? I will re-evaluate Mugsy from scratch next ballot and see if I come up with a different answer.
8-George Van Haltren (8) [10]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s. But was never the key player on his teams, which weren’t exactly perennial winners.
9-Cupid Childs (9) [17]
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay too. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.
10-Rube Waddell (10) [14]
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit. We’ve already elected 8 pitchers from his prime – that nudges him down a bit. But his big KOs would have made him a bigger stud in most other eras, and that bumps him back up.
11-Roger Bresnahan (11) [19]
Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
12-Mule Suttles {new}
On the bubble until I process more info. His ‘Cobb MLEs’ don’t look great, but his rep sure was, and with this NeL I will go 50% on rep right now.
13-Earl Averill {new}
Add in a bit of credit for his PCL years, and he’s on my ballot. Could go higher as I learn more. Compared to GVH, hit a little better, fielded worse, shorter career.
14-Pie Traynor (12) [31]
Fine player. Not as good as Heinie Groh. I’m not into buying the ‘old guys’ wisdom hook, line, and sinker, but LOTS of people thought he was a great player, and that gives him a small boost.
15-Tommy Leach (14) [15]
As a third baseman he’s high on my ballot. As an OFer he’s way off. He lands here. Looks really similar to Pie Traynor.

Required disclosures:
Hughie Jennings
If we had a PEAK Hall of Merit, Hughie would be a shoo-in.
Eppa Rixey
115 ERA+ , but in front of a good defensive team in the weaker league. Would be elect a guy with a 108ish ERA+? Massive amount of career innings doesn’t quite do it.

Others who are close
Jake Beckley (13) [11]
Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting an elect-me spot, though.
Frank Chance (15) [tie for 46th!]
More Win Shares per game than Henry Aaron! Highest WS/yr among any ballot-eligible player by a large margin (>2 WS/yr)!
Dizzy Dean
Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Larry Doyle
Great hitter (check out the OWP). Problems throwing to first hurt the Giants.
Tony Lazzeri
Very similar to Doyle.
George Sisler
If only his severe injury had been even one or two years later :(
Mickey Welch
Career looks a lot like Rixey’s.
Wally Berger
Bill James’ #13 CFer. I’m looking, but I don’t see it.

Wally Schang, Hugh Duffy, and Jimmy Ryan are also in my consideration set.
   45. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 03, 2005 at 11:10 PM (#1178377)
Karl,

EQA
Beckley .278
Simmons .293

PA's
Beckley 9526
Simmons 8759

FRAA
Beckley 43
Simmons 73

Without getting into peak vs. career value, I don't think that your argument of Beckley over Simmons hold up. Even if by some odd measure 1B in the 1890's was move valuable than CF/LF in the 1920's and 30's, Simmons was better at his position than Beckley was at his. Defensive value goes to Simmons

While their OPS+'s may be close, their EQA's are not. And Beckley only has about 800 most PA's. That is two or three extra seasons of below average offense that Beckley has going for him. I don't like to give credit for such offesnive mediocrity to guys playing offensive positions.

Honestly, I don't even see it as being close and this is without considering the superior peak of Simmons. I hate to accuse people of anything but it seems as if you are putting Beckley up high because you have selected him as your pet candidate and want him to get into the HOM.

Also, lets not take up space in this thread. If you want to reply and argue, let's take it over to the discussion thread. I just posted here to get your attention.
   46. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 03, 2005 at 11:38 PM (#1178433)
I don't like to give credit for such offesnive mediocrity to guys playing offensive positions.

I know you disagree with this, Mark, but first base wasn't really an offensive position during Beckley's time.

With that said, I have Simmons about 15% better than Beckley. I like Eagle Eye a lot, but I love Bucketfoot Al!
   47. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 04, 2005 at 01:41 AM (#1178640)
It was still on the left side of the defensive spectrum (or whichever one is not a hard to play) so I would categorize it as offensive. It had more defensive responsiblity and was more important that the corner outfield positions, but it wasn't 2B, SS, CF, 3B, or C.

And sorry if that last post seemed like I was attacking karl. Looking back it does have more venom in it than was intentioned.
   48. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 04, 2005 at 01:56 AM (#1178701)
It was still on the left side of the defensive spectrum (or whichever one is not a hard to play) so I would categorize it as offensive. It had more defensive responsiblity and was more important that the corner outfield positions, but it wasn't 2B, SS, CF, 3B, or C.

I'll buy that, Mark.
   49. karlmagnus Posted: March 04, 2005 at 02:17 AM (#1178776)
It was Simmons-Beckley-Stearnes until I found out how good Stearnes was, when it became Stearnes-Beckley-Simmons. You have to correct Beckley's figures for season length, and for the fact that his earliest and probably best seasons were the shortest. I've no idea what EqA is, but the 90s weren't the hitting era that the 30s were, and Beckley's home park turned home runs into triples, thus artificially suppressing SLG.

And what John said.

Whether Beckley should be 2nd or 3rd (or even 4th, behind Welch, for which you can make an argument) on this ballot is far less salient than the bizarre rankings that have him off the bottom. THAT is irrational!
   50. karlmagnus Posted: March 04, 2005 at 02:19 AM (#1178783)
Oh, and I disagree that CF was a tough position in the 90s. You only got about 2 balls there a game.
   51. Thane of Bagarth Posted: March 04, 2005 at 02:32 AM (#1178832)
1946 Official Ballot:

I tweaked the weights in my rankings of pitchers to be slightly less rate & peak heavy. Dean still made out very well and Rixey moves up. As for batters, I did a little reevaluating of Browning, C. Jones, and Cravath. Gavvy moves up considerably, the other two move down.

1) Al Simmons—Definite HoMer. Top 10 in OPS+ 10 times. Plus he could field: 106 Rate in BP, “A” in WS. Sort of like Heilmann, if Harry traded in some bat-work for glove-work.
2) Turkey Stearnes—The fact that he was a comparable hitter to Suttles but played the OF (and reportedly played it well) puts Norman Thomas Stearnes on top. He could conceivably rank ahead of Simmons.
3) Mule Suttles—Generally regarded as the 2nd best NeL 1st baseman. I think he gets somewhat overrated when compared to Taylor because their eras were different. Still, he was an incredible slugger.
4) Wes Ferrell—Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Highest Career WARP3 (81.2) among eligible pitchers, 2nd highest 5-year PRAR (455).
5) Dizzy Dean— Dean has basically the same career value (~62 WARP3, ~175 adj. WS) as Waddell, but with a better peak. 493 Top 5 PRAR (1st among eligibles) 228 career PRAA (2nd to Waddell), 145 Top 5 WS (1st among strictly 20th C. eligibles).
6) Dick Redding—Now the best NeL pitcher on the board. 2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.
7) Ben Taylor—Now that it looks like were giving the 2nd best NeL 1B his due, can we start to appreciate 1B #3? He has a highly regarded historical reputation—Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” Plus Chris Cobb estimates 326 Win Shares & KJOK estimates an OPS+ of 138.
8) John Beckwith—Looks like the best Negro League 3rd baseman, which is HoM-worthy. I’m looking forward to seeing how Jud Wilson stacks up.
9) Eppa Rixey—Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+. Highest career PRAR of eligibles, 871. Eeks his way past Waddell this “year.”
10) Rube Waddell—142 ERA+ 3.81 DERA. 209 PRAA/ 429PRAR/ 145WS in 5 best seasons. Behind only Dean & Ferrell in PRAR in his top 5 seasons.
11) Jose Mendez— Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat.
12) Joe Sewell—Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. His peak can’t match up with Jennings’, but the rest of his career is solid and moves him ahead.
13) Earl Averill—Disagreement between WARP & Win Shares about his fielding is intriguing. Either way, he was a solid hitter: Top 10 in SLG 8 times.
14) Hughie Jennings—Slowly being pushed to the bottom of the ballot. He’s all peak, but it’s hard to resist: 52.7/151 in top 5 WARP3/WS seasons.
15) Dobie Moore—Pretty much pegged to Hughie Jennings from here on out.

--------------------------
16) Bill Monroe
17) Urban Shocker
18) Spot Poles—332 estimated WS.
19) Fielder Jones—New WARP3 moves him down a few spots.
20) Harry Hooper—Hardly different from Fielder Jones.
21) Gavy Cravath
22) Dick Lundy
23) Jack Quinn—2nd highest career PRAR of eligibles, 801.
24) Clark Griffith—Slides down a few slots due to new weighting.
25) Ed Cicotte
26) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty is underrated.
27) Kiki Cuyler
28) Jimmy Ryan
28) Wally Berger
29) Charley Jones
30) Pete Browning

Other Top 10 not on my ballot
31) George Van Haltren—So many outfielders seem to have similar or better careers. There really isn’t much space between the low-30s and the mid-teens on this ballot.
33) Hugh Duffy—See GVH comment.
37) George Sisler—His peak was good, but not stellar enough to outweigh lack of production post-sinus problem.
83) Jake Beckley—Unimpressive 21.59 WS/162G and 31.7 top 5 WARP3 cannot be overcome by his longevity.
   52. DavidFoss Posted: March 04, 2005 at 05:34 AM (#1179268)
1946 Ballot

1. Turkey Stearnes (ne) -- Known to bb-ref fans as the part of their perennial "Happy Turkey Day" holiday banner of links. The MLE's say he's somewhere between Ott & Waner. That's enough for #1 slot this week.
2. Al Simmons (ne) -- Had a solid 152 OPS+ after 1934 and let his career numbers regress a bit with a Sisler-esque tail to his career. Looks to be the 5th 1928 Athletic star to be enshrined (with Foxx/Grove still awaiting eligibility)
3. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13-11-11-9-6-4-4-4-2-5-4-2) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago.
4. Clark Griffith (15-12-10-8-7-9-10-14-nr-14-14-13-8-4-7-5-3) -- The plethora of borderline 20's candidates is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
5. John Beckwith (12-8-6-4) Convinced he's ballot-worthy by recent analysis and re-analysis. He was certainly a good hitter. Career length and true defensive position are my main concerns with him.
6. Mule Suttles (ne) -- Dropping a bit since the prelim as I'm thinking Beckwith was a bit better. The MLE's have him at Kiner/Killebrew level of pre-DH DH-ness accompanied by perennial HR-title type power... unlike Kiner/Killebrew, his plate discipline was only average.
7. Larry Doyle (14-11-9-8-6-7-10-8-8-6-4-2-3-3-1-4-7-6) -- I think the electorate is underrating him. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
8. Cupid Childs (15-12-10-9-8-9-14-12-12-10-8-6-6-5-3-6-8-7) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
9. Dick Redding (ne-12-10-8-9-10-7-12-12-10) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. Wes Ferrell (ne-13-11) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
11. Joe Sewell (ne-12-14-15-14-14-15-12) His RCAA numbers are good and earn him a place on the ballot. His RCAP numbers are a bit inflated due to his being 10 years older than Cronin/Vaughn/Appling.
12. Earl Averill (ne) -- Hard guy to judge. Solid ten year prime, but not much else. The best white CF between Cobb/Speaker & Dimaggio, but I don't feel he has the dominance that a short-career outfielder should. Credit for an extra PCL season helps. He's making the ballot which is a credit to him as I tend to be tough on non-shoo-in outfielders
13. Charley Jones (13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11-9-9-7-5-3-7-6-5-9-10-8) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
14. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12-10-10-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-11-9) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keepin him out of the HOM so far...
15. Roger Bresnahan (14) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.

Omissions:

Sisler -- Was on my ballot for ten years, dropped off due to strong class of newbies.
Van Haltren -- Two 10ths and an AA-7th in OPS+ is not what I look for in a HOM outfield candidate. Win Shares fielding rating of B. Looks like the Hall of the Very Good to me.

Newbies:
-- Dean -- Oooh... I'm torn on him. I love peak, but it wasn't as dominant as Jenning's or Koufax's.
-- Berger -- Forgotten great. Behind Averill and slipping into the glut of OF candidates.
   53. Kelly in SD Posted: March 04, 2005 at 09:19 AM (#1179690)
1946 Ballot part 1

1946 Ballot

1. Stearnes – PHOM 1946 – A great hitter. Long time center fielder. Chris’ translations place him as similar to the following players. A .537 slugging percentage has the following players with long careers: Aaron .554, Sosa .545, Bagwell .542, Snider .540, F Robinson .537, Simmons .535, Ott .533, Stargell .529, Sheffield .528, Heilmann .521. The 5200 total bases is comparable to: E Murray 5397, F Robinson 5373, Palmeiro 5223, Winfield 5221, Ripken 5168, Speaker 5101, Ott 5041. He is an obvious HoMer. I just thought I would try to find some similar players.

2. Simmons - PHOM 1946– Most unadjusted career win shares, 375. 2nd most adjusted to Van Haltren. Highest peak – 3 cons years – 104. 2nd most adjusted to Jennings. Highest prime – best 7 years – 216. 4th most adjusted to C Jones, Browning, Duffy. 13th best per season (648 PA), but there is NO player ahead of him within 2000 plate appearances. 5 times among best outfielders in AL. Best player in AL in 1925 and 1929. 9 times top 10 position players in AL. 6 times selected to Sporting News All-Star. Black Ink 23, Grey Ink 215. Highest Grey Ink score among eligibles. So excellent career length with a fantastic peak.

3. Welch - PHOM 1901 – see posts this ballot thread. To summarize, the weight of the evidence leads me to believe he was as good as most of the pitchers already enshrined in the HoM, especially pre-1893.
His record against HoMers: 62-38.
Lack of defensive support compared to every other HoM pitcher pre-1893
Small difference in ERA+ is attributable to comparatively poorer defenses that played behind him.
Durability – 3rd most innings pre-1893
Wins – No person with this many wins is NOT a HoMer
Similar pitchers – most similar include: Radbourn, Keefe, Clarkson, Nichols, Seaver, and Plank among his top 8.

4. Suttles – Not quite as a good a hitter as Stearnes. Mainly a first baseman so less defensive credit than Stearnes. Higher than Beckwith because I see him with 3 more productive seasons which more than balances out the defensive positioning. Using Dr. Chaleeko’s info from the Suttles thread, you get Suttles by adding Wally Berger and Charlie Keller together. That sounds HoMer to me.

5. C Jones - PHOM 1906 - : I give full credit for the 2 and one-sixth black-balled years. 4th in peak (Jennings, Browning, Duffy), 1st in prime, 8th in per season, 7th in career. 4 times a Win Shares all-star, 3 times best in majors. 5 times a STATS all-star. OPS+ of 149 is 3rd (Browning, Cravath). Adjusted for season length, 9 20 ws seasons, 6 - 25+, 4 - 30+ and that is without giving credit for the missing years. 7th in black ink, 3th in grey ink. 8th most pennants added.

6. Browning - PHOM 1921 - Prime – 2nd behind Jones. Peak – 2nd behind Jennings. Season – 5th behind Chance, Cravath, Bresnahan, Seymour. 5 times a win shares all-star, 2 times majors. 8 times STATS all-star. OPS+162 is 12 points better than next highest among eligibles – Cravath. Only Duffy and Van Haltren have more pennants added.

7. Duffy - PHOM 1919 - Prime – 3rd (Jones, Browning). Peak – 3rd (Jennings, Browning). Career – 8th. Excellent defensive center fielder on one of the best defensive teams ever. Rates at an A+ with 4 gold gloves. Only Van Haltren has more pennants added. 5 times a Win Shares all-star. Only Cravath has more black ink.
2 times best position player in the league: 1893 tied with Delahanty, 1894.
3 other times in top 5: 1890 Players League (the strongest of the three) 2nd by 1 behind Ward; 1891 AA: 3rd behind Brouthers and Brown; 1892: 5th behind 2 HoMers Brouthers and Dahlen, Cupid Childs, and E Smith.
1895: 11th behind 5 HoMers. Tied with another HoMer – Keeler.
1897. 8th behind 6 HoMers and Jennings.
1898. 13th behind 7 HoMers. Tied with 2 other HoMers – Clarke and Wallace.
His Defensive Win Shares are NOT the result of playing centerfield. He actually spent only 40% of his time in center. He moved out of center because Billy Hamilton came to the team.

7. Averill – 1 year of credit for his last year in PCL. In his first 10 years in AL, he had 9 finishes in top 10 position players; the other year he finished 11th. 9 times among top 3 outfielders in AL. AL All-Star Centerfielder from 1929-1936. Second to Joe DiMaggio in 1937, 1938. 7th most win shares in the 1930s. 4 times a Gold Glove outfielder including 2 years as the best outfielder.

8. Burns - PHOM 1938 - Steps back in front of Roush this time. 4th in prime (Jones, Browning, Duffy). 5th in peak (Jennings, Jones, Browning, Duffy). 5 times all-star and 3 times majors by win-shares. Great lead-off man (who have definitely been overlooked). 3rd in black ink (Cravath, Duffy). 12th in grey ink. 10 years with 20+ win shares. Best position player in league – 1914.

9. Van Haltren - PHOM 1939 - Career – Best. Prime – 6th (Jones, Browning, Duffy, Burns). What hurts him is his peak and seasonal numbers. 12 years with 20+ win shares. Adjust for season length and 9 are over 25. 2 times win shares league and majors all-star. Very consistent player.

10. Mendez – Convinced he deserves to be this high by recently rererereading his thread. Pitched at a top level for a long time against excellent NeL competition. Added bonus of position play.
   54. Kelly in SD Posted: March 04, 2005 at 09:22 AM (#1179695)
1946 Ballot part 2

Oh, the Welch part refers to posts made in the 1945 Ballot Discussion Thread.

10. Mendez – Convinced he deserves to be this high by recently rererereading his thread. Pitched at a top level for a long time against excellent NeL competition. Added bonus of position play.

11. Moore - Great shortstop. Now giving some credit for seasons spent in the military. Excellent prime. Great hitter. Maybe not at the level of Beckwith, but still excellent production for a shortstop. Quite a bit better fielder than Beckwith.

12. Willis – PHOM 1942 - 4000 innings with a 118 ERA plus. 4 times league all-star. Only Grimes had more Grey Ink. Best pitcher in league in 1899, 1901. Second best pitcher in 1902, 1906. More Grey Ink than 7 HoMers from post-1893 era.

13. Ferrell - No, I am not drinking the Kool-Aid. He has an excellent peak. I see him as the 3rd best pitcher of the period (Grove, Hubbell were better.) If Grove had not been in the AL, Ferrell would have led the league 3 times and finished 2nd 3 times instead of the 1 first, 2 seconds, and 3 thirds he ended up with. Ferrell handled a heavy workload for his time at a consistently top level.

14. Beckwith – Back on the ballot. I generally am more put off by strong passionate arguments so Jennings and Beckwith get pushed off if its between them and others. But, the most recent arguments have convinced me he is ballot worthy. His numbers from the Suttles thread are comparable to Averill especially if some credit is given to Averill for some minor league time.

15. Leach: 5th in career win shares. A+ defense at Third and outfield. Key reason why Pittsburgh could place so many different pitchers in the rotation and they would all pitch well. 7 times a top 7 player in league.
Top 10 in league:
1902: 4th
1904: 6th tied
1907: 3rd tied
1908: 4th tied
1909: 7th
1913: 4th tied
1914: 4th

Next 15:
Roush, Childs, Jennings, Berger, (Terry), Poles, (Vance) Cooper, Griffith, Waddell, (Carey), Doyle, Sisler, Chance, Herman Long, Thomas, F Jones, Grimes, Bresnahan, Veach or Konetchy. (Faber)

Newbies:
Berger: 2 years best player in NL. 2 other years as a NL All-Star outfielder. Excellent outfielder. 4 gold gloves. 1 time best fielder in majors. 1 time best in NL. Just too short a career with the great candidates now. 1 year of credit.

Dean: Great peak. Just not enough a career.

Returning Top 10s Not on My Ballot:
Jennings: 18th, Just not enough good or average years surrounding his great peak. Just too many good players available right now.
Griffith (20th): Despite my Griffith-centric posts recently, he is a great pitcher. He just did not put up the numbers that the great pitchers of his era did. He had a very long run in his prime, but he lacks the big years that other pitchers had during his era.


Sisler: He is close, but the second half of his career is about as worthy as the second half of Ryan’s. His prime is not worthy on its own. Several first basemen had 5-6 years as the best in their league during the pre-Gehrig period.

Rixey: Very consistent. Better run support than teammates. No big years. High in win shares only 26. Top 7 years is weak as well. Did have 6 all-star seasons, but never the best in even one year. Most every top pitcher of his era had a much higher peak.

Sewell: Better than other white shortstops of his time, but several NeL shortstops were better from the 1920s.

Beckley: I really like him for his career. Some of the most impressive career totals. But his year-to-year performance were lacking big years or greatness or whatever you want to term it. Many years over adjusted 20 win share level, but never over 25. Only the best at his position 1 to 3 times in his career. Brouthers, Connor, Anson, Chance, Harry Davis, Konetchy, Fournier, Sisler, Daubert, Terry, and Gehrig did better
   55. Kelly in SD Posted: March 04, 2005 at 09:42 AM (#1179707)
Damn. A piece of advice: Don't try to do this while your wife is trying to get your help to pick out paint colors for the house. Just drop Leach off the ballot and move Averill and all the others below him down one spot.

Ballot should run:
1. Stearnes
2. Simmons
3. Welch
4. Suttles
5. C Jones
6. Browning
7. Duffy
8. Averill
9. Burns
10. Van Haltren
11. Mendez
12. Moore
13. Willis
14. Ferrell
15. Beckwith
   56. Rick A. Posted: March 04, 2005 at 06:21 PM (#1180289)
PHOM
Turkey Stearnes
Al Simmons

1946 Ballot
1.Turkey Stearnes – Elected PHOM in 1946
2.Al Simmons – Elected PHOM in 1946
3.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
4.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
5.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Elected PHOM.in 1945
6.Mule Suttles – Placed here for now. Need more info.
7.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
8.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
9.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak. Elected PHOM in 1940
10.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
11.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
12.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
13.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
14.Edd Roush – Majorly underestimated him. Very good centerfielder.
15.Dick Lundy – Better than Sewell. Moves up in re-evaluation. Very close between Lundy and Moore, but I think I like Lundy's career a little better than Moore's peak.

Required Explanations
George Sisler – Too many good candidates to make my ballot.
Clark Griffith – Just doesn't rate well in my system. Overachiever.
George Van Haltren –I tend to really like steady careers like Van Haltren, Griffin, Beckley, but just can’t see him jumping over anyone on my ballot. Falling deeper into the CF glut.
Joe Sewell – the 1942 discussion convinced me that I was overrating him. Best SS in ML at his time, but he has a weak peak and not a very long career. Still a good player, though.

New Candidates
Earl Averill- Not far from my ballot
Dizzy Dean - Strong Peak, but not enough career.
Wally Berger - OK player, but I like Averill better.
Newt Allen - Haven't ranked him yet, but I doubt he'd make my ballot.

Off The Ballot
16-20 Moore, Grimes, Mendez, Redding, Leach
21-25 Schang, Sisler, Cooper, Averill, McGraw
26-30 Williamson, Dean, Waddell, Mays, Taylor
31-35 Griffith, Poles, Tiernan, Bresnahan, Dunlap
36-40 Van Haltren, Doyle, Sewell, Traynor, Chance
41-45 Burns, McCormick, Bancroft, Griffin, F. Jones
46-50 Wilson, Bond, Berger, Long, Welch
51-55 Thomas, Cravath, Fournier, Konetchy, Beckley
   57. SWW Posted: March 04, 2005 at 07:37 PM (#1180509)
A week or two ago, Kelly from SD posted a series of statistical comparisons among some of our leading pitcher candidates. I found this very helpful in analyzing the way I was ranking pitchers, with the interesting effect of reinforcing my support for some players and changing my view on others. Since we’re all about giving full credit around here, I just wanted to thank Kelly for the boost.

I just hope that no one figures out I cribbed the full names of the players from my Microsoft Baseball ’95 CD-ROM.

1946 Ballot
1) Aloysius Harry Simmons – “Bucketfoot Al”
2) Norman Thomas Stearnes – “Turkey”

Both outstanding players, both eminently worthy of immediate election. I give the slightest of edges to Simmons because his numbers are less conjectural. So that earns him a whopping one additional point. Wouldn’t you love to go back in time and confront the bigots who divided the game, basing your argument purely on the fact that segregation screws up your statistical analysis?
3) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
He seems like he should be all peak, but he’s still a right-decent ballplayer when you look at his non-prime years. I like the balance.
4) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
So Kelly’s numbers helped me clarify some things in my head...primarily that I really require some durability from my pitchers. Grimes is consistently successful over a long range of time, but he also has the peaks necessary to make him more than Milt Pappas. I’m resigning myself to the fact that I will probably be Burleigh’s best friend for quite a while.
5) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
6) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”

A pair of long, flourish-free careers. The HOF Standards and Monitor stats are useful in tracking the difference between a merely long career, and one that measures up over the long run. Rice does exceptionally well here, but Beckley’s pretty good, too.
7) Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. And I’ll be rhyming his named with “jewel” until someone decides to correct me.
8) Hugh Duffy
I was trying to place Earl Averill, and I found that Duffy came out ahead in the comparison. When calculating prime vs. career, Duffy’s actually a lot more balanced than I expected. Prime is less than half of career. That was a surprise.
9) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Reviewing Kelly’s numbers convinces me that I’ve been underrating Rixey severely. I’m lifting him up.
10) Howard Earl Averill
11) Edd J Roush
Quite similar, which may be why they’re right next to each other in Bill James’ ranking of right fielders. I’m giving Averill a slight edge for a tiny-bit-better prime.
12) George Suttles – “Mule”A cautious ranking. Someone on one of the threads used the term “Kingman-eqsue”, which greatly alarms me. But the significant offensive success leads me to slot him here for now.
13) John Beckwith
I spent a lot of time looking over the Cobb projections and the attendant discussion. I have a sneaking suspicion that what I don’t like about Albert Belle is what I don’t like about Beckwith. But right now, the numbers justify inclusion on my ballot.
14) Carl William Mays
Suffered in my review of pitchers, since he’s more peakish than I generally like to have on my ballot. Still find his peaks very impressive, moreso than Ferrell. I don’t know how long he’ll hang on, though, since I’m coming around to the idea that I have been selling Griffith and Willis short.
15) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
Just hanging on. Win Shares are really saving his bacon.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Clark Calvin Griffith
What can I say: I’ve got six pitchers ahead of him. (Candidates come and go, but there always seem to be six ahead of Griffith.) His is an interesting mix, and my recent re-think has made him look more appealing. I definitely like him way better than...
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
Love his peaks. Hate the shortness of his career. I like him more as a candidate than Dizzy Dean, who has outstanding peak. So I guess that tells you where I stand on Wes.
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
Hack Wilson has a similar career arc, with a better career, and he’s not here. Basically, the peak is outstanding, but not so much so that it overshadows the fact that the peak is the entire career. Five-year prime is over 70% of career. Ouch.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangable with Jimmy Ryan. He’s good, but it’s not enough.
   58. OCF Posted: March 04, 2005 at 07:42 PM (#1180524)
1946 ballot.
1. Norman "Turkey" Stearnes (new) Clearly a great player. Simmons was also clearly a great player. The evidence to say with any confidence which one was the greater does not exist.
2. Al Simmons (new). The man could hit. Goslin was 1st on my ballot last year, and Simmons is ahead of Goslin.
3. George "Mule" Suttles (new). The greatest uncertainty of this ballot lies in where to place Suttles. Putting him here for now doesn't guarantee anything about his position on my 1947 ballot.
4. Joe Sewell (5, 3, 5, 5, 2) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. Come to think of it, I could say that about a lot of people, including Childs.
5. John Beckwith (7, 5, 7, 6, 3) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit.
6. Larry Doyle (6, 4, 6, 7, 4) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
7. George Van Haltren (3, 1, 3, 3, 5) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
8. Eppa Rixey (8, 7, 8, 8, 6) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
9. Wes Ferrell (---, 11, 7) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
10. Earl Averill (new) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
11. Jake Beckley (8, 10, 10, 9, 9) Not much peak, long career.
12. Cupid Childs (11, 9, 11, 12, 10) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
13. Hugh Duffy (12, 11, 12, 13, 11) 40th year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.
14. Edd Roush (13, 11, 13, 14, 12) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey. Do I have too many CF on the ballot? Maybe.
15. George Sisler (14, 12, 14, 15, 13) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
16. Pie Traynor (10, 13, 15, 16, 14) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy.
17. Frank Chance (17, 16, 18, 19, 15) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
18. Rube Waddell (15, 14, 16, 17, 16) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
19. Jose Mendez (16, 15, 17, 18, 17)
20. Roger Bresnahan (18, 17, 19, 20, 18) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
21. Dizzy Dean (new) A peak monster, but it's not enough.
22. Ki Ki Cuyler (---, 21, 19) I'll peg his case to Ryan's.
23. Jimmy Ryan (19, 18, 20, 22, 20) Not beyond reconsideration.
24. Dick Redding (20, 19, 21, 23, 21)
25. Hugh Jennings (21, 20, 22, 24, 22) All he's got is 5 years.

The cluster of players fighting to get back up to the #25 spot include Schang, Cravath, Maranville, Rice, Leach, Luque, Lindstrom, Poles, Taylor, Willis, Welch, Burns, Griffith, and Hack Wilson.
Griffith languishes down here largely because he's not that high on career IP for his times.

Newt Allen: not enough hitter.
Wally Berger: short career, maybe comparable in value to Roy Thomas.
   59. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 05, 2005 at 03:19 AM (#1181327)
I have been holding out for a while but with the MLE's in, I will post my ballot. I am looking forward to Win Shares estimates on Mule Suttles, however.

1. Al Simmons (x, PHOM 1946)
2. Turkey Stearnes (x, PHOM 1946) - I am willing to concede to those that persist that Stearnes was the better player. However, it is close and I am going with the player that I know was a great one. I have gotten flack for this before, but I don't care. Would it be correct to think of Stearnes as a LF/CF (asopposed to CF/LF)type like Simmons in MLB? Was he a truly great CFer?

3. Hughie Jennings (1, PHOM 1938) - I am being bearish on Suttles, but it is possible that he is better than Jennings. I still think that EE-YAH has the best peak on the board.

4. Cupid Childs (3, HOM 1939) - Not much else to say about the little fat man. Best 2B of the 1890's, for what that is worth.

5. Wes Ferrell (5) - On the precipice of the PHOM. With Foster gone I believe that he is the best pitcher remaining. Dean/Koufax level peak with some decent years added to boot.

5a. Bill Terry
6. Clark Griffith (6) - I am in the proces of re-evaluating him as he has so far recieved a boost for being the fourth best pitcher of the 1890's. Still love any 19th century player that can boast a DERA under 4.00.

7. Eppa Rixey (7) - Best career pitcher on the board. Threw a lot of innings and threw them well.

8. Mule Suttles (x) - This is probably too low. I want to take another look at him and as a consequence am being a little bearish. His MLE's dont' really match up to his rep as an all-time great hitter, though he could still mash.

9. John Beckwith (9) - Though, his actual spot on my ballot is holding steady this is actually a bump up for Beckwith. I have him just below Suttes for two reasons.
1. I see him as a 1B/3B instead of a 3B/SS. This lowers his defensive value
2. Much like with Dick Allen, I think that he was a detriment to his team with his off the field actions.
Great hitter though.

10. Hugh Duffy (8) - Best of the remaining 1890's OFers and it is a pretty strong group.

11. Dick Redding (10) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the Dead Ball Era. Threw some of the best gas ever.

11a. Max Carey
12. Dizzy Dean (x)
13. Rube Waddell (11) - I have Dean just above Waddell. Why? According to BP's translated pitching stats, the difference between the two colorful pitcher is 500 innings of 5.70 ERA ball on Waddell's part. Advantage Dean. Two of my favorite players ever.

14. George Van Haltren (12) - Nice long career. Unlike Beckley, Cross, Hooper, and Rice he had a nice little peak as well.

15. Dobie Moore (13) - The black Hughie Jennings, though his peak wasn't as valuable as EE-YAH's.
   60. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 05, 2005 at 03:31 AM (#1181338)
16-20 Averill, Sisler, Bresnahan, Mendez, Browning
21-25 Roush, Veach, Lundy, Monroe, Doyle
26-30 Shocker, Berger, Sewell, Leach, Cravath
31-35 Wilson, R.Thomas, McGraw, Chance, Traynor
36-40 Joss, Burns, Taylor, Schang, Ryan
41-45 F. Jones, Evers, Cuyler, Grimes, Konetchy
46-50 Cicotte, C. Jones, Manush, Lazzeri, Bancroft

Newbies

16. Earl Averill - WARP All-Star on the same scale as Bobby Veach. His career was of sufficient length for an all-prime player. He will be on my ballot in subsequent years.

27. Wally Berger - I thought that I would like him more. Better WS peak than any other CFer not named Hugh Duffy. HOVG, about even with Sewell.

New Allen, Billy Rogell, Lyn Lary, and Pepper Martin were sent thorugh my system and didn't make my top 50. I will take a look at Allen again in the future. Pepper 'Wild Horse of the Osage' Martin was the worst player that I have run through my system in my 12 years on the project. Great nickname, though.

Required Disclosures

28. Joe Sewell - Not spectacular or special at anything. Best player of a weak crop of SS's, moved to 3b by the time that Cronin, et al. came along. According to Win Shares he isnt' much better tha Dave Bancroft. HOVG for sure.

xx. Jake Beckley - Finally pushed out of the Top 50 by a strong 1946 class. It is unclear at this point if he will ever return. Long career with many decent seasons, never a great player however.

xx. Mickey Welch - Those 300 wins are a giment of the era in which he played. I don't really by all of the micro analyzing about who pitchers pitched against, etc. I think at most it adds another 3-4 wins to Welch's resume, not nearly enough to overcome Welch's run prevention chops.
   61. Michael Bass Posted: March 05, 2005 at 07:29 AM (#1181611)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

No shock on the new PHOMers: Stearns and Simmons.

Berger is smack in the middle of the OF glut, an unlikely candidate for the ballot. I'd still like to see WS estimates on Allen (and Demoss) in the long run, but I'm comfortable saying both are below Lundy, and nowhere close to my ballot.

1. Turkey Stearns (1946) (new) - Well, his hitting stats are strong, his defensive reputation is strong, his offensive reputation matches his stats. What's not to love? I really think he's the nb #1 on the ballot...

2. Al Simmons (1946) (new) - ...which is not to insult Simmons, who is an easy HOMer, just think Stearns is an inner-circle guy. Simmons is a second tier, in the "duh" category, but below the immortals. Not enough peak to be in with the top guys. Just barely edged my #2 in fact, as Ferrell had a vastly superior peak. But Simmons prime just went on, and on, and on....

3. Wes Ferrell (1945) (1) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best on the ballot.

4. Hughie Jennings (1910) (2) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

5. José Méndez (1932) (3) - While Waddell is moving down, Méndez is staying steady. Why? Because I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

6. Joe Sewell (1939) (4) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit.

7. John Beckwith (1940) (6) - Liking him more and more, as his offense looks better and better, plus I've upgraded my assessment of his defense some. Don't think he can be below Suttles, at least as good of a hitter, and a much more valuable fielder even if you believe the worst about his defense. Actually moves up in my mind, but was far below Sewell on last ballot, so doesn't quite catch him.

8. Dizzy Dean (new) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

9. Rube Waddell (1926) (7) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me. Moves down a touch, as he didn't have quite as many big years as I'd like.

10. Mule Suttles (new) - Cautious for now, not sure I loved what I saw on his early translations. Will wait till the Win Shares before making a final call. Could move up above Ferrell, could fall down below Moore.

11. Clark Griffith (1927) (9) - Another big winners in WARP3 changes, as well as the look back at the first 3 decades of the majors. We need more 1890s players. Griffith and Jennings are the two we should be looking at. As others have pointed out, we don't need more 1890s OF; need more infielders and pitchers.

12. Dick Redding (10) - Of similar value to Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. I'm really stuck the mid-ballot pitchers. Really have no confidence in my order, they're all very close.

13. Dobie Moore (11) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

14. Wally Schang (12) - I took another look at him, and his OPS+ combined with a long catcher career makes him the top backstop candidate in the backlog.

13. Lave Cross (1928) (13) - A career/prime guy who does well. Having played catcher helps him a lot, as well. For those looking for 3B/C, this is an overlooked guy.

14. Fred Dunlap (1929) (14) - For 7 consecutive years, one of the top best players in baseball. Is there anyone else fitting that description who we haven't inducted? Excellent defense, very good offense. This is discounting his UA year waaaay down.

15. Bill Monroe (1930) (15) - Simply a great 2B from the early days of the Negro Leagues. All evidence I have seen points strongly toward him being a very, very good player. I have him ranked slightly ahead of Frank Grant, who we've inducted.

16-20: Cross, Dunlap, Monroe, F. Jones, Veach
21-25: Williamson, Bond, Browning, Shocker, Buffinton
26-30: Sisler, Childs, Taylor, Maranville, Grimes
31-35: Luque, Cuyler, Lundy, Schalk, Ryan
36-40: Poles, Mays, Lazzeri, Uhle, Hooper




Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Sisler - I like him OK, but peak isn't nearly high or long enough to make up for the short productive career.

Van Haltren - Way down on my ballot. I'd much prefer Jimmy Ryan, who also is not on my ballot. Also would prefer Poles, Duffy, Griffin, Hooper. And of course Fielder Jones and Bobby Veach, who I think were the best of all these guys who have been around forever. Plus Cuyler now. And Averill and Berger. As has been pointed out, while we need 1890s players, we don't need 1890s OFs.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. I've softened a bit on the old goat. He's in my top 50!

Duffy - Well down on the OF list. Not in need of 1890s OFs.
   62. OCF Posted: March 05, 2005 at 08:46 AM (#1181704)
Michael Bass, that's a defective ballot. Who, exactly is #13-14-15?
   63. Michael Bass Posted: March 05, 2005 at 05:02 PM (#1182155)
Ugh....I apologize. The perils of posting late at night.

1. Stearns
2. Simmons
3. Ferrell
4. Jennings
5. Méndez
6. Sewell
7. Beckwith
8. Dean
9. Waddell
10. Suttles
11. Griffith
12. Redding
13. Moore
14. Schang

15. Earl Averill (new) - This is actually conservative on him, not sure he won't end up higher on my ballot eventually. Hell of a player, good peak and prime, good career if you add it any minor league credit.
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 05, 2005 at 05:16 PM (#1182177)
Counting Michael's ballot, we have 24 ballots. Seems to be running a little slow this week.
   65. Howie Menckel Posted: March 05, 2005 at 05:24 PM (#1182190)
1946 ballot, which is our 49th (big one next year!).

1. TURKEY STEARNES - I love the package of a very good CF who is an excellent all-around hitter as well. Musial seems like a stretch, but Mel Ott (in terms of total value, that is) seems like a reasonable comp as has been noted. I like Gadfly's comments in the Stearnes thread; augments my sense that this guy could star in any park at any time. I'd love to see him beat out Simmons for first place.
2. AL SIMMONS - Basically a one-decade player, 1925-34, but what a decade. OPS+s, top to bottom, of 176, 176, 171, 159, 149, 145, 142, 136, 130, 129. That's a cut above even some mid-level HOMers in terms of best 3 and best 7, for example, and he adds in three more worthies - plus other years of some contribution. It's a nice package as well.
3. MULE SUTTLES - I do significantly discount for his extremely favorable parks; not as convinced on the 'pitcher's park' data; I don't particularly discount for his defense; but I do factor in the likelihood of his OBP not being dazzling. That's 3 discounts out of 4 options, basically, yet I still see him as third-best on this ballot.
4. CLARK GRIFFITH - Glad to see further (and more profound) recent analysis of how and why the 1890s are underrepresented. It's remarkable how much better Griffith's W-L was than the teams he pitched for. At least he is getting some fresh looks of late from the academy.
5. EPPA RIXEY - Moving ahead of some colleagues as I review the WW I issue, and flipflops with Jennings. If only he had one huge year. Pretty baffled that Faber got in immediately, while Rixey sits on the fence. I may have to consider league quality more deeply.
6. HUGHIE JENNINGS - One solid season short of an "elect me" slot on my ballot, but the best player in baseball nods and the difficulty of the era have him back in the running for me. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
7. GEORGE SISLER - Way better than Wally Berger, for example, see below. I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
8. JOHN BECKWITH - I keep digesting his thread notes and relenting slightly each year, but I'm still not all the way sold on him. A great player for a time and glad to see him get some deserved props, though.
9. CUPID CHILDS - Continues to hang in there. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot.
10. WES FERRELL - 117 ERA+ not dazzling, but it's misleading with the late-career bad IP. Significant hitting bonus, too. Kind of a weird player. Do Caruthers voters tend to favor him more?
11. MICKEY WELCH - If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the old Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
12. JAKE BECKLEY - Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? I'm finally convinced that he really wasn't quite as good as Keeler after all, but he can still grab a ballot spot in this bunch.
13. EDD ROUSH - VERY interesting comparison for Berger and Averill; I have a problem with the games he missed in a lot of years, but his D and high level of play combined with career length gives Roush the nod. I wonder if Roush will be a barrier to a lot of Berger-Averill types. Or maybe Sheckard makes people look more favorably on the group.
14. TOMMY LEACH - The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'
15. DICK LUNDY - He really does present a problem for Sewell, doesn't he? I think Sewell needed to be a slightly better fielder and Lundy needs a tiny bit more evidence. This year, they straddle the voting line.

JUST MISSED/NEWBIES
JOE SEWELL - Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting. We've already elected a lot of SSs, let's see if he measures up to a new crop of them.
EARL AVERILL - I guess he can beat out Roush with a significant minor-league credit, and I'll continue to weigh both. Doesn't quite match Berger's monster year, but otherwise generally a slightly better player for slightly longer.
WALLY BERGER - First seven years of OPS+s: 172, 147, 144, 142, 137, 131, 120. Not much after that. Sisler's big 7: 181, 170, 167, 161, 154, 140, 132.
DIZZY DEAN - Wow, I'm shocked at how little is there. 119 and 114 ERA+s in his first two years of the 'five-year greatness.' Incredible in 1934 and excellent in 1935, but I can't even imagine anyone putting him at the bottom of our ballots.
NEWT ALLEN - Maybe a Herman Long, probably not more than that. Not a HOMer.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Seems very similar to Beckley, only he's an OF and not a 1B. Pitching helps, not quite enough.
PETE BROWNING - Missed last year for the first time in many years. Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time.
JOSE MENDEZ, ROGER BRESNAHAN - Fresh looks will come in a more reasonable voting year.
   66. Howie Menckel Posted: March 05, 2005 at 05:46 PM (#1182241)
Mr. Murphy,
I'd chalk up the delay to Simmons vs Stearnes; Suttles above or below them, or below others, too; Averill and Berger, where do they fit in the OF pantheon, with minor-league credit issues to boot. Plus there's Dean to look at, at least.

It's a tough ballot.
   67. Brent Posted: March 05, 2005 at 05:57 PM (#1182263)
DIZZY DEAN - Wow, I'm shocked at how little is there. 119 and 114 ERA+s in his first two years of the 'five-year greatness.'

Take a look at adjusting for defensive support. Dean's DERA+ for 1932 and '33 were 130 and 118. Combine that with placing 1st and 2nd in the league in IP, leading the league in K's both seasons, placing 4th and 2nd in W, and 7th in fewest BB/9 for 1933, and it looks like a very good package to me.
   68. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 05, 2005 at 06:14 PM (#1182275)
Mr. Murphy,
I'd chalk up the delay to Simmons vs Stearnes; Suttles above or below them, or below others, too; Averill and Berger, where do they fit in the OF pantheon, with minor-league credit issues to boot. Plus there's Dean to look at, at least.


Makes sense to me, Howie.

BTW, my father is Mr. Murphy. :-)
   69. Brent Posted: March 05, 2005 at 06:41 PM (#1182296)
1946 Ballot:

With the deepest entering class since 1934, six major new candidates merit serious consideration. Only one of the new candidates is an inner-circle, Definition-A HoMer, but the next four rise well above the “Carey line” and race past most of my backlog. The sixth candidate just misses my ballot.

1. Turkey Stearnes –
A rare player who was very-good-to-excellent in all aspects of the game--hitting for power and for average, strike zone judgment, fielding, and base running. How many HoMers can that be said of? Maybe as few as a dozen, certainly not more than two dozen. The admission of Stearnes to that other Hall in 2000 rectified its biggest omission.

2. Wes Ferrell –
Ferrell ahead of Simmons? As the fourth best pitcher of the 1920-43 era (behind Grove, Paige, and Hubbell), he stands out more than Simmons, who ranks no higher than sixth among outfielders (behind Ruth, Charleston, DiMaggio, Stearnes, and Ott).

3. Al Simmons –
No criticism intended by placing him here – Simmons would have been an easy number one in many recent elections. An outstanding hitter and fielder, he was a star of one of the greatest teams in baseball history. Hit .329 with 6 home runs in 19 WS games.

4. Mule Suttles –
In a class with other big right-handed sluggers who could really wallop the ball. It’s a large class with a lot of variation in value, and without much information on walks it’s tough to figure where Suttles should be placed along a spectrum that runs from McGwire to Howard, Canseco, Colavito, Adcock, and others. IMO Chris Cobb’s MLEs for Suttles appear overly conservative with respect to his slugging and isolated power; given the chance to play in the majors, I’m confident that Suttles would have hit 500+ home runs.

5. Earl Averill –
My general rule is to give players credit for minor league play after the first season in which they’ve demonstrated that they have above-average major league ability. Averill’s 1926 PCL season clearly showed that he was capable of being a star in the majors, so he gets full credit from me for 1927 and ‘28. Win shares rates his fielding better than WARP1 does; when they disagree, I tend to trust WS a little more.

6. Dizzy Dean –
In honor of his arrival on the ballot, I rented the video, “The Pride of St. Louis.”

For five and a half seasons Dean was a truly great pitcher. So far his candidacy hasn’t really caught on among the HoM’s career-centric voters, but I think it would be a shame if the HoM passes him by.

7. Hughie Jennings –
As the best player in baseball for 3 seasons (1896-98), he’s in pretty exalted company. Every other player who’s been on top for that long has been (or will be) considered a “no brainer.” I’d like to see the HoM honor a few of the sprinters as well as the distance runners.

8. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

9. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones.

10. José de la Caridad Méndez –
I made the case for Méndez in a recent post on his ballot thread.

11. Tommy Leach –
6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey and Sheckard.

12. Buzz Arlett –
As I’ve been able to refine his MLEs, my confidence in his viability as an HoM candidate has grown. For the 14 seasons he spent as an outfielder, I see him as about halfway between Heilmann and Hack Wilson – he hit for average and for power and drew walks. Throw in a couple of seasons as a very good pitcher, and he’s ballot worthy. His fielding wasn’t so bad as to negate all of that.

13. Clark Griffith –
Outstanding pitcher from 1895-99; good pitcher, albeit with a lighter load, in 1894, 1900-01, and 1903.

14. Roger Bresnahan –
His peak towers over Schang’s. I still hold out hope that he will eventually be elected.

15. John Beckwith –
After a lot of skepticism, I’m finally climbing aboard the Beckwith bandwagon. I still have concerns that his behavior may sometimes have negated his value as measured by his batting statistics, but his stats just can’t be ignored.

Other new arrivals:

Wally Berger is the best MLB position player from the 1920s or 30s who hasn’t been elected to the HoF. He really should have gone into Cooperstown before Hack Wilson and Chuck Klein. The HoM has tougher standards, though, so Berger probably falls just below the in-out line. I’ve ranked him at # 20.

I haven’t studied Newt Allen yet, but it seems doubtful that he will make my ballot.

Top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
Slips to # 25. During their primes, Grimes was better.

Joe Sewell –
He’s now # 45 in my rankings. I don’t believe in grading on a curve.

George Sisler –
His peak, after adjusting for context, just wasn’t good enough. I have him at # 41.

George Van Haltren –
# 30. I like Van Haltren, but he doesn't have the peak needed to boost him higher on my ballot.

Jake Beckley –
Not in my top 50. Undistinguished.
   70. Howie Menckel Posted: March 05, 2005 at 07:44 PM (#1182380)
Fair point, Brent, but Rixey had some years like that and pitched forever, and he hasn't gotten in!

Aside from those seasons, you'd be comparing two super Dean years with a lifetime of Rixey good pitching. Don't see how Dean survives those kind of peak vs longevity battles...
   71. Brent Posted: March 05, 2005 at 08:18 PM (#1182424)
Dean's five best seasons as measured by WARP1 were 1932-36:

11.9, 10.0, 10.0, 9.2, 7.5

Rixey's five best were 1921, 1923-25, and '28.

8.9, 8.3, 7.6, 7.5, 7.4

Rixey was a very fine pitcher for a very long time, but Dean had four seasons that were better than Rixey's very best. In my opinion the line between greatness and very good lies between the two of them.
   72. Chris Cobb Posted: March 05, 2005 at 08:48 PM (#1182466)
1946 Ballot

Very strong set of new candidates this year. Two, Stearnes and Simmons, are first-ballot HoMers; two others, Suttles and Averill, make the ballot and are likely to achieve election eventually; two more, Dean and Berger, break the top 60 but lack the career value needed to be serious candidates for election.

1. Turkey Stearnes (n/e). Tremendous player; interesting that he doesn’t have the semi-legendary aura of Lloyd, Charleston, Paige, and Gibson. Mel Ott is probably his nearest comp in terms of value (though not style) among his major-league contemporaries; Ott doesn’t have a semi-legendary aura either. Both were very consistent players at MVP level. Great as Simmons was, putting Stearnes #1 is an easy choice.
2. Al Simmons (n/e). Really fabulous peak, better at peak than anyone on the ballot except Jennings, and career is quite strong, too, but the weaker second half of his career drops him clearly behind Stearnes.
3. John Beckwith (3) Revised MLEs raise Beckwith a bit higher in my estimation.
4. Clark Griffith (1). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length. Also the best pitching post-1893 candidate according to Pennants Added. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure.
5. Hughie Jennings (5). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
6. Eppa Rixey (4). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the late 1950s. Concerns about league quality drop him down my ballot a bit, but variability of individual NeL conversion factors makes me leary of placing too much weight on league-quality assessments. Head-to-head comparisons with Lyons and Ruffing a few elections down the road will be crucial to his HoM case.
7. Wes Ferrell (6). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM.
8. Mule Suttles (n/e). MLEs don’t quite come up to his recent reputation as best NeL player not elected to HoF, but he’s still HoM calibre. His beaning in 1927 (another bad-luck moment for first-basemen: they had it tough during first half of the twentieth century, didn’t they? Chance and Suttles and Daubert getting beaned, Sisler’s sinuses, Gehrig’s fatal illness) cut seriously into his peak and keeps him, in my view, out of the upper half of the HoM but not out of the HoM altogether.
9. George Van Haltren (7). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet. Van Haltren was in an “elect-me” spot on my 1931 and 1932 ballots. I’ve lowered my view of outfielders in general since then, which caused Jennings to pass him, but everyone from Van Haltren up clearly merits eventual enshrinement, in my view.
10. Edd Roush (8). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
11. Tommy Leach (10) Finally getting his due. Won’t have a chance at election until the 1960s, but it looks like he’s more firmly on the radar now.
12. George Sisler (11). Nice peak.
13.Earl Averill (n/e). Lands between two other borderline cf candidates, Edd Roush and Spotswood Poles. This is giving Averill one full season of MLE credit for PCL play. Two seasons credit would put him right up with Roush and Van Haltren.
14. Larry Doyle (12). Best of an over-looked teens group of middle-tier stars.
15. Jose Mendez (15). Stays on the ballot as I try to figure out what to do with the next tier of teens candidates.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot.
Hugh Duffy. Not far from my ballot at #22. I like Duffy pretty well, but I prefer Van Haltren among 1890s outfielders. I think WS overrates Duffy a bit due to his team beating pythagorean projections by a large margin through most of his peak seasons.
Jake Beckley. Liking him better as I give the quality of competition in his prime due weight. He’s now at #32. If we make good progress into the backlog in the 1960s-1970s, he could make my ballot.
Joe Sewell. Right behind Beckley at #33. Likely Beckley, I don’t see him as unworthy of the HoM, but, also like Beckley, I see him as near the bottom of a large group of borderline candidates. There really is a not a whole lot of difference between Beckley & Sewell and Doyle and Maranville, or anyone else in between 14 and 34.

1945 Off-Ballot, through 32

16. Rabbit Maranville (13).
17. Spotswood Poles (14).
18. Burleigh Grimes (16)
19. Dick Redding (17)
20. Urban Shocker (18)
21. Mickey Welch (19)
22. Hugh Duffy (20)
23. Carl Mays (21)
24. Rube Waddell (22)
25. Jimmy Ryan (23)
26. Roger Bresnahan (24)
27. Wally Schang (25)
28. Cupid Childs (26)
29. Buzz Arlett (27)
30. Dobie Moore (28)
31. Ben Taylor (29)
32. Jake Beckley (30)
33. Joe Sewell (31)
34. Dick Lundy (32)

35. Waite Hoyt (33).
36. Herman Long (34)
37. Wilbur Cooper (35).
38. Lave Cross (36)
39. Kiki Cuyler (37).
40. Harry Hooper (38).
41. Bobby Veach (39)
42. Fielder Jones (40)
43. Dolf Luque (41)
44. Gavvy Cravath (42)
45. John McGraw (43)
46. Tommy Bond (44)
47. George J. Burns (45)
48. Charley Jones (46)
49. Bruce Petway (47)
50. Bill Monroe (48)
51. Dizzy Dean (n/e)
52. Babe Adams (49)
53. Mike Tiernan (50)
54. Sam Rice (51).
55. Dave Bancroft (52)
56. Frank Chance (53)
57. Tony Mullane (54)
58. Ed Konetchy (55)
59. Addie Joss (56)
60. Wally Berger (n/e)

P.S. Still thinking about the discussion with KJOK about merit in top level of play, but haven't changed my system for this election.
   73. favre Posted: March 05, 2005 at 11:01 PM (#1182777)
1.Turkey Stearnes
2.Al Simmons

Stearnes is probably the #2 outfielder in Negro League history. He’s been compared to Ott, who has 528 career WS. Give Stearnes a 20% discount—which seems a little high—and he’s still above 400 WS, so I feel confident placing him ahead of Simmons. And Simmons, as others have noted, ranks comfortably ahead of Goslin.

3.John Beckwith
4.Mule Suttles

I am jumping on the Beckwith bandwagon. Chris Cobb and Gary A. have done an excellent job at presenting his case. At worst, he was a great hitting 3B/SS with around 280 career WS; my guess his total WS are somewhere between 325-250. As several others have mentioned, he is very comparable to Dick Allen.

The fact that we can roughly estimate park effects of the Negro Leagues is a tribute to the kind of research that has taken place during this project. I have Willie Stargell as a rough comp for Suttles (.282/.360/.529; 370 WS; 1,936 career strikeouts), although with era adjustments Pops was a little better. I’ve put Beckwith above him because he played more important defensive positions (if not particularly well), and may have been a better hitter.

5.Jake Beckley
6.Clark Griffith

Beckley does not have much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

7.Tommy Leach
8.Eppa Rixey

There seems to be a little backlash against Leach, which I don’t quite understand. Leach a) played great defense at two key positions b) was a pretty good hitter, with six seasons over 122 OPS+ c) has 324 Win Shares; we’ve elected every position player with more except Van Haltren d) Was a productive player every season from 1901-1914 (with the exception of the 1911 season) e) has a peak, with seasons of 31 and 29 WS. He’s a much better pick than, say, Joe Sewell.

Rixey 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, Jack Powell, and Roger Clemens (for the moment) are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

9.Earl Averill
10.George Sisler

At age 29, Sisler would have seemed to be a lock for the HoM. He had a great run from 1917-1922, hitting .407 and .420 in a couple of seasons, and was first or second in stolen bases every year for five years. He also played at a position which had not seen a dominant star since the 1890s.

Averill wasn’t quite the hitter that Sisler was, but he had considerably more defensive value and a more productive career, particularly if you give him credit for one or two PCL seasons. Those PCL MLE’s are another example of terrific research. I’m recondiering Cravath as well.

11.Rube Waddell
12.Edd Roush

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

Now that Averill has arrived, I’ve dropped Roush a bit. Still, he was clearly one of the best players in the NL from 1917-1921—an impressive prime, even with a small NL discount-- and was a good player from ’23-26.

13.Ned Williamson
14.Hugh Jennings
15.Cupid Childs

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. Besides timelining, I don’t see how you can have Pie Traynor above Williamson. I have Jennings ahead of Childs; Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better.

21. George Van Haltren
Van Haltren was merely a good hitter in a high offense era, and I think his WS totals are distorted by his pitching stint.

22. Wes Ferrell
Ferrell and Mickey Welch are the players that I find the toughest to gauge. Traditional stats and Win Shares see Ferrell as essentially the same type of player as Carl Mays (to be fair, James has Mays at #38 and Ferrell at #40, well within HoM range). WARP sees Ferrell as something more special, but I don’t trust WARP. The era during which he pitched, plus the value of his hitting, does suggest that he could be underrated, but right now Ferrell will hang just off my ballot.

Joe Sewell.
Good player, but he doesn’t compare well with other shortstops who are already in the Hall. I’m certainly not convinced that he was better than John Beckwith, Dick Lundy, or Dobie Moore.
   74. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 06, 2005 at 02:21 AM (#1183173)
Early ballot this week . . . wish me luck, I'm heading to Atlantic City tomorrow!

1. Turkey Stearns (n/e) - another pretty easy choice. One of the Hall of Fame's most glaring omissions.

2. Eppa Rixey (2) - (280-237 CJ, .687 PA, 206 WSaR, 331 WS) Rixey is clearly the top pitcher on this ballot. He'd be over 300 CJ wins (and around .770 PA and 370 WS) if he hadn't served in the military in 1918-19. 300 game winners are a rare breed (especially after 1892) and in just about any other conditions before 1985, Rixey would have been one. It's a shame that he's considered a mistake Hall of Famer by many because of his W-L record, which was tainted by pitching for some bad teams. He's every bit as good as Robin Roberts was, for example.

3. Al Simmons (n/e) - nothing to add, easy HoMer. His career record looks a lot like Clemente's.

4. Charley Jones (3) - (.714 PA, 197 WSaR, 287 WS) Give him credit for his blackballed years at .0875 per year and he's at .889 PA. That's basically his 1878, he was better than that in 1879, 1884 and 1885. Throw in 33 WS per year and we're at 343. Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow.

5. Hughie Jennings (4) - The Sandy Koufax of position players. Crammed 9 years production into 5 magnificent seasons.

6. Clark Griffith (5) - (231-152 CJ, .765 PA, 216 WSaR, 320 WS). He was a true star - though earlier pitchers seem to have an advantage on PA (more innings in a season = more pennant impact). He falls behind Rixey when Rixey's war credit is included. It was also tougher for pitchers to have the same pennant impact in Rixey's era, so ties tend to go to the modern pitcher on this basis.

Why the rush on McGinnity and the stonewalling of Griffith? I just don't get it. I think we were way too friendly to McGinnity, but I can't see how he'd be in and Griffith out - Griffith absolutely deserves eventual induction.

7. Bill Monroe (6) - (Esitmated 344 WS if you give him credit for A defense) Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he was a star.

8. Mule Suttles (n/e) - Big time bat, and another of Cooperstown's missing NL stars.

9. Gavy Cravath (7) - (.533 PA, 152 WSaR, 220 WS) Too much to ignore - either he was a freak of nature or there's a lot missing. Just giving him 4 years of extra credit at .075 PA, or 29 WS per season (he was better than that 3 times in his 30s) moves him to 336 WS, .833 PA.

10. Jake Beckley (8) - (.712 PA, 215 WSaR, 369 WS) A very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. 11 seasons over 20 WS, which is understated by about 2-3 per season because of WS undervaluing 1B in his era. That has a lot of value in my opinion.

11. Wes Ferrell (9) - Great pitcher at his best and a good hitter. Combined value higher than I ever realized.

12. Earl Averill (n/e) - There's a lot to like here. I need to take a better look at his pre-MLB record, I could very well have him too low.

13. Tony Lazzeri (11) - Quite a hitter for a 2B. I like him better than Childs (though they are quite similar) because 2B was more important defensively in Lazzeri's time.

14. Mike Griffin (12) - We're forgetting about him guys. Great defense, very good offense and a star during the one league era, where it was tougher to stand out. Reassessment moves him back onto the ballot.

15. George Van Haltren (13) - (.898 PA, 259 WSaR, 412 WS; .774/225/361 not counting the pitching) - Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6. Should get a signficant bump for his pitching, though it is easy to forget about it.

Out for a year or two . . .

16. Tommy Leach (14) - (.775 PA, 226 WSaR, 355 WS) Win Shares loves this guy. He's underrated as a 3B and overrated as a CF because of the time he played in, but in the end it's a wash. Sure it wasn't a great league, but that's an awful lot of WS to turn your back on. He's also the 3rd highest rated 3B to date by WARP3 - just a hair behind Cross and Groh.

17. Dobie Moore (15) - (Estimated 300-340 WS depending on war credit and defensive quality). Great player, career cut short.

*****

18. Wally Schang (16) - (.567 PA, 174 WSaR, 262 WS) The best white catcher we've seen since Buck Ewing. 117 OPS+ that was OBP heavy (career .393 OBP) and he lasted 19 years, though he never played more than 134 games in a season. He rates higher on WS and WARP3 (70.8) than Charlie Bennett (.525, 154 WSaR, 239 WS, 68.4 WARP3).

Schang is miles ahead of Schalk (.390 PA, 120 WSaR, 206 WS), and as far as I can tell, any white catcher of the era 1910-30 era.

19. Jimmy Ryan (17) - (.809 PA, 235 WSaR, 378 WS) Great player from 1888-92, and a very good player during the remainder of his long career.

20. Edd Roush (18) - (.796 PA, 228 WSaR, 340 WS) Great player from 1917-1920. His peak was every bit as good as Sisler. Sisler 1916-1922: 145 WSaR. Roush's best 7 seasons 152 WSaR. Sisler, one season at 25 WSaR. Roush two above that and another at 24. The remainder of their careers isn't close. I can't see voting Sisler over Roush. Even giving Sisler at 10% overall bonus for 1B not being measured correctly (which wouldn't even apply to 2nd half of Sisler's career, where 1B became a more offensive position Roush is ahead on all three measures.

21. Ben Taylor (19) - (Estimated 326 WS) Almost a direct replica of Beckley. Says a lot about the tightness of the ballot.

22. Wally Berger (n/e) - Short career, but a top notch player when in there. His record reminds me a lot of Fred Lynn's.

23. Jim McCormick (20) - WARP and WS like him much better than Welch.

24. Hugh Duffy (21) - (.820 PA, 231 WSaR, 348 WS) What? The guy I bashed, bashed and bashed again? I guess I was discounting his 1891 too heavily. It needs to be deflated, but not as much as I had. I also laughed away his 1894 as a very good year, but not a historic one in context - again, I was probably too harsh there.

25. Vic Willis (22) - (251-203 CJ, .734 PA, 207 WSaR, 322 WS) - I like Mike Webber's pet too.

26. John Beckwith (--) - Okay, I'll move him up some since you guys obviously think he was great. But I'm still unconvinced.

27. Spotswood Poles (23) - (~332 WS)

28. Heinie Manush (24) - similar offensively to Roush, but he was a LF, not a CF.

29. Dolph Luque (25) - (with 3 bonus seasons at roughly .500 I see him at 239-199 (207-166 CJ) .667 PA, 197 WSaR, 297 WS)

30. Frank Chance (26) - (.649 PA, 185 WSaR, 257 WS) - don't forget to give him a slight catcher boost if that's something you do . . .
31. Roger Bresnahan (27) - (.579 PA, 170 WSaR, 249 WS)
32. George Sisler (28) - (.660 PA, 190 WSaR, 317 WS) Most of what I want to say about him is covered in the Roush comment. Additionally, Sisler was a great player from 1916-22. 1B had more defensive responsibility and Sisler still hit like a great outfielder. I see as quite similar to Don Mattingly, but Sisler was able to sustain his greatness a little bit longer and would have to rank ahead if forced to choose among them. I give him a 7.7% bonus for playing 1B - this is the percentage of his pennants added that game before 1923 (the date I generally use as my cutoff for deadball the deadball 1B bonus).
33. Mickey Welch (29) - (302-215 CJ, 1.414 PA, 341 WSaR, 536 WS) - I can't tell if RSI or WARP tells the true story. Extremely divergent opinions. Sad to see that he died this year without being elected.

Others within shouting distance:

Joe Sewell (--) - Good player, but like being the best shortstop of the 1970s, just being the best of a weak crop isn't good enough.

Newt Allen (n/e) - a nice player but I'm not convinced. I do like him better than . . .

Dizzy Dean (n/e) - He had two huge years and a couple of good ones. I don't see it. Just looking at his most similar list, how do you take him over a guy like Harry Breechen even? Breechen was just as good, maybe a hair below. The more I think about it, he's probably the most overrated player in the history of Major League baseball. He's famous and a great part of MLB history, but he shouldn't be anywhere near the Hall of Fame for what he did on the field. He's closer to Mark Fydrich than a HoMer in my opinion (he's obviously much more qualified than Fydrich, but you get my point). Another example, Kevin Appier is MUCH more deserving than Dean, and I don't see him sniffing the HoM . . .

Close but can't even order them at this point: Dick Redding, Jose Mendez, Dick Lundy, Urban Shocker, Carl Mays, Burleigh Grimes (should I be giving him any military service credit?), Rube Waddell, Jack Quinn, Eddie Cicotte, Herb Pennock, Harry Hooper, Ed Konetchy, Travis Jackson, Ed Williamson, Lave Cross, Pie Traynor, Herman Long, Sam Rice, Fielder Jones, Larry Doyle, Cupid Childs, John McGraw, Rabbit Maranville, Joe Tinker, Dave Bancroft, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning, Kiki Cuyler, Waite Hoyt.
   75. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 06, 2005 at 02:22 AM (#1183176)
Thank God I control-c'd that before I posted, because the first time I hit submit it went into hyperspace . . .
   76. OCF Posted: March 06, 2005 at 02:48 AM (#1183224)
You're early, Joe - Saturday instead of Monday. Lots of other voters are later than usual. (29 so far, barely over halfway through.) Average consensus scores running around +8.
   77. Rob_Wood Posted: March 06, 2005 at 04:16 AM (#1183296)
My 1946 ballot:

1. Turkey Stearnes: great negro lg center fielder
2. Al Simmons: coin-flip between Stearnes and Simmons
3. Jake Beckley: deserving HOMer
4. Earl Averill: very good hitting center fielder
5. Mule Suttles: very good hitter, here seems right
6. Eppa Rixey: very good, long career
7. Kiki Cuyler: stellar center fielder
8. Tony Lazzeri: very good second baseman
9. Joe Sewell: good fielding, good hitting ss
10. Wally Berger: another very good center fielder
11. Edd Roush: I seem to luv center fielders
12. George Van Haltren: ditto
13. George Sisler: cannot keep him off ballot
14. Cupid Childs: overlooked for too long
15. John Beckwith: unconvinced he belongs higher

No room on ballot for group top tenners: Clark Griffith (he's in my top 20); Hughie Jennings (he's in my top 30); and Wes Ferrell (he's in my top 50). Also, I am still struggling with placing Dizzy Dean, a test for all of us to wrestle with.
   78. yest Posted: March 06, 2005 at 05:55 AM (#1183441)
Simmons and Stearns make my pHoM this year

1. George Sisler finished 4 in the NL in batting average in 1928 (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Al Simmons 200 hits 6 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Turkey Stearnes this is my conservative estimate (makes my personal HoM this year)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
10. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
11. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
13. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
14. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
15. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg.
16. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
17. Moose Suttles with I had some antidot[u/]al information on him especaly quotes
18. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
19. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
20. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
21 Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
22. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
23. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
24. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
25. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
27. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
28. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Tommy Leach I don’t even understand the argument for him
John Beckwith I’m not enough confident enough in his case to put him higher then he is
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
   79. Howie Menckel Posted: March 06, 2005 at 03:02 PM (#1183843)
Wow, tough ballot for Suttles there. He doesn't make the top 15, AND he gets called "Moose."
   80. Patrick W Posted: March 06, 2005 at 04:05 PM (#1183878)
Computer froze up last night; was able to recover this ballot, but the workups I did on my two HOMers this year appear lost. Remember to save frequently!

1. Turkey Stearnes (n/a), Detr. (--), CF (‘23-‘40) (1946) – If Chris’ playing time estimates can be believed (I haven’t had any reason to doubt them yet), Stearnes (0.328) almost matches Beckwith’s EQA (0.330) and does it with a 40-50% longer career. Pretty easy No. 1 this year.
2. Mule Suttles (n/a), St.L - Nwk. (--), 1B / LF (‘23-‘42) (1946) – More peak seasons, 800 more translated AB’s enough to get Suttles over Simmons.
3. Al Simmons (n/a), Phila. (A), LF / CF (‘24-‘41)– The system says Beckwith is just above Simmons, but the uncertainty of the MLE numbers cause the flip on the final ballot. If it was a close call between Stearnes, Suttles and Simmons, Al would get the bump as well. Bill James’ top 100 (Turkey 25, Mule 43, Al 71) gets it right IMO.
4. John Beckwith (1), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Appears to me to rank solidly among banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson). I estimate an EQA of 0.330 from the MLE’s. Short career, but definitely worthy by the numbers.
5. Joe Sewell (2), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Don’t let it be said I have no love for the prime/peak guys.
6. George Van Haltren (4), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Even un-adjusted, most career WS among 1B-OF. Leads the pack from the 90s holdovers.
7. Jimmy Ryan (5), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Don’t really understand the lack of support. I guess I never will.
8. Dick Lundy (6), Atlantic Cty (--), SS (’16-’34) – I see a comparison here with Frank Grant. Those who liked Grant should see something worthy in Lundy. As such, my guess is he makes the P-Hall and falls short of the group HOM.
9. Ben Taylor (7), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
10. Eppa Rixey (8), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings.
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) –
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
11. Jake Beckley (9), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.
12. Harry Hooper (10), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
--. Bill Foster, Chic. (--), SP (’23-’37) –
13. Dizzy Dean (n/a), St.L (N), SP (’32-’40) – Much higher than I would have guessed. Excellent Runs Saved Above Average ranking, and the peak boost I’ve applied to everyone was tailor-made for him. Even so, he’s 7th in line for the P-Hall; there’s a long haul ahead.
14. Wes Ferrell (12), Clev. (A), SP (’29-’38) – Foster ahead because of ~400 extra IP.
15. Rube Waddell (13), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – Seeing as how he’s not in the P-Hall, a good bet for my personal Most Total Ballot Points since 1909. Hate to see him go, but it won’t be long now.

Earl Averill strikes me as a rare species: a player that is justified being both a HOFer and NOT a HOMer. He could very well fall into the top 225 (+/-) players of all time, and thus justify his Vet Committee vote, and fall under the radar in the HOM because of the project’s timeline and the overall quality of players within his own time. My own personal timeline keeps him below the Beckley / Hooper / F.Jones group, and (because of the onslaught of talent that’s headed our way) off the ballot for a long while to come.

Clark Griffith – On the ballot last year, once again bumped off in favor of the new blood.
Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to overcome the career guys.
George Sisler – I’ve had no love for Caruthers or Sisler, only a little love for Dean. You’d think a Cardinals fan would show more favor to the borderline players from St.Louis. At least I had Wallace on top once.

Griffith, Jennings & Sisler were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   81. Gadfly Posted: March 06, 2005 at 06:09 PM (#1184004)
1946 BALLOT (Gadfly)

1) Norman (Turkey) Stearnes, born May 1901 [CF]
NL 1923-1941 (19) Best Major League Comp: Stan Musial
Comment: Stearnes was better than his Negro League contemporary Mule Suttles in every way except power. He was quite comparable to Stan Musial, another left-handed line-drive masher with a funky stance. Stearnes would have racked up well in excess of 500 WS in the Majors and is an easy number one choice. Career also could have been slightly longer in the Majors. Like fellow southerner Joe Jackson, Stearnes did not want to come north in the early 1920s or he would have been in the Negro Leagues in 1921. Also, after his 1941 season with the Monarchs, Stearnes returned to Detroit to work in the lucrative wartime industries, not because he could no longer play. He did not actually retire until 1945.

2) John Beckwith, born Jan 1900 [3B]
NL 1920-1934 (15) Best Major League Comp: Rogers Hornsby
Comment: Beckwith was a much better hitter at his peak than Stearnes or Suttles, but injuries and his managing career seem to have stopped his playing career in his mid-30s. He was quite comparable to Rogers Hornsby, only with less speed and even more power. Interestingly, Hornsby also struggled with injuries in his 30s and had his playing career shortened by his managing career. In the Major Leagues, Beckwith would have had many WS seasons in the 40s and ended his career with 450 WS or more, even with his shortened career. Of everyone on this ballot, Beckwith was the far and away the best hitter and would have had the highest peak.

3) Clifford (Gavy) Cravath, born May 1881 [RF]
ML 1908-1919 (09) 202 WS 26.83 (35-29-28-26-26) 149 OPS+ (170-169-157-151-146)
Comment: Cravath made it to the Majors in 1908 and played very well. Despite this, He went back down to the minors from 1909 to 1911. After two monstrous seasons with Minneapolis in 1910 and 1911, he finally came up for good in 1912. Cravath had 200 WS in his career, virtually all earned from age 31 on. In 1915, Cravath had his peak season (35 WS) at the advanced age of 34. If he had been born in the East rather than CA, Cravath should have been in the Majors by 1903 or 1904 at the latest. Also, if he had not taken up managing in 1919, Cravath would have added on a little more value at the end. In 1921, Cravath was still playing well in the PCL. In a more perfect world, Cravath would have probably played in the Majors from 1904 to 1921 with many peak seasons in the 30s, a true peak of 40 or so WS, and a career total of from 400 to 500 WS. In addition to all this, Cravath would have also been a much greater hitter out of the deadball era. His part-time 1919 season at the age of 38 shows what Cravath would have been capable of in the 1920s (.341 BA/.640 SA/207 OPS+). He actually led the National League in HR in 1919, playing less than half a season Sadly underrated by history.

4) Richard (Dick) Redding, born Apr 1890 [P]
NL 1911-1930 (20) Best Major League Comp: Amos Rusie
Comment: Redding would have won 300 games in Majors easily, averaging well over 20 wins per season from 1911-1923, except for 1913 when he was injured. Redding is quite comparable as a pitcher to Amos Rusie, a great big man who threw extremely hard all the time. However, unlike Rusie, Redding lasted for a full 20-year career. Redding spent the 1920s pitching and managing for Nat Strong’s woeful Brooklyn Royal Giants and was still the team’s ace deep into the decade. Redding would have probably racked up at least 400 WS in the Majors, and probably struck out well in excess of 3000 men. However, it must be said that placing Redding exactly was harder than anyone else in the list. But he truly deserves to be in the top 5 and not simply forgotten because he died long ago in 1948.

5) Benjamin Rippay AKA Charley Jones, born Apr 1850 [LF]
ML 1876-1887 (12) 161 WS 29.42 (27-24-21-18-18) 150 OPS+ (182-175-166-163-162)
Comments: Jones would have had a much greater career in almost any other time and place. Jones was the 18th Century Babe Ruth and was even nicknamed “Baby’ himself. His career is hurt because Jones started late, missed two seasons (1881-1882) in his prime due to the mother of all salary disputes, and perhaps retired a little early. His best five years are very impressive when normalized to a 154 game season (39-37-33-31-28); and, of course, this ignores the effects of the late start and the missing years. With a more normal career pattern (playing from say age 22 until age 38), Jones would have peaked at above 40 WS (adjusted) and amassed 450 to 500 career WS (adjusted). Jones is very comparable to Gavy Gravath and is actually quite better without a timeline discount. And, just like Cravath, Jones would have been an awesome slugger in the lively ball era and much more valuable. The best hitter here besides Beckwith, Jones falls to fifth place because I am ambivalent about crediting him with his early 20s.

6) George (Mule) Suttles, born Mar 1900 [1B]
NL 1923-1941 (19) Best Major League Comp: Hank Greenberg
Comment: Suttles had much more power than Stearnes, and would have hit well over 500, probably 600, home runs in the Majors. But hitting home runs and driving runs in were his only outstanding attributes (not that there is anything wrong with that). Suttles is quite comparable to Greenberg, although without all of Hank’s career interruptions and his early retirement. Like Greenberg, Suttles played primarily 1B, but with a fair amount of time in LF. Chris Cobb’s conversions project Suttles with 353 career WS, but I think that is a quite conservative estimate. Suttles would have probably had somewhere between 450 to 500 WS in the Major Leagues. Suttles is very comparable as a hitter to Stearnes, Cravath, and Jones; but does not have the defensive value of those three players.

7) Aloysius (Al) Simmons, born May 1902 [LF]
ML 1924-1940 (17) 375 WS 27.42 (36-34-34-34-27) 132 OPS+ (173-172-168-158-146)
Comments: Simmons was very comparable to Stearnes at his peak, but not really as good. Also, Stearnes was a true centerfielder, while Simmons played a third of his career in CF, but mostly just in LF. Like Stearnes and Stan Musial, Simmons had an odd stance although he batted right rather than left. For some reason, Simmons career and talent faded badly after 1931. Perhaps, Simmons, who was well known as a clutch player, was badly affected by playing with second division clubs. But, in any case, Simmons was nowhere near as good from 1932 to 1940 as he had been from 1924 to 1931. Without the career fade, he would rate a little higher. By comparing Cravath and Simmons at the same ages, it’s quite easy to see why Cravath rates much higher than Bucketfoot Al.

8) Anthony (Tony) Mullane, born Jan 1859 [P]
ML 1881-1894 (14) 399 WS 29.45 (58-55-46-36-34) 118 ERA+ (159-159-135-134-132)
Comment: Even with a pre-1893 peak-pitching discount, Mullane was a very good pitcher for a long time (especially by the standards of his time). In addition to this, Mullane was suspended for the entire 1885 season and for several other periods during his career or he would have had about 450 WS. Mullane is the best remaining eighteenth century pitcher on the board, obviously more deserving than Welch. Of course, you could discredit Mullane for his character defects (he was an all-around jerk quite often); but he has the numbers and probably would have been able to pitch for 20 or more years in a more pitcher friendly era than the arm shredding 1880s.

9) Richard (Dick) Lundy, born Jul 1898 [SS]
NL 1919-1936 (18) Best Major League Comp: Frankie Frisch (more power/less speed)
Comment: Lundy was a great shortstop for a long period of time, comparable to Frankie Frisch, except that Lundy had more power, less speed, and a much stronger arm. As a shortstop, it is quite probable that Lundy had more defensive value than the Fordham Flash, a 2B. Frisch finished his career with 366 WS, and Lundy would have probably been in that range or even higher, 375 to 400 WS. Like Frisch, Lundy ended his playing career as a manager and the hardest thing about evaluating King Richard is where his lost Major League career would have begun and where it would have ended.

10) Roger Bresnahan, born Jun 1899 [C]
ML 1901-1915 (15) 231 WS 25.88 (29-27-27-23-19) 126 OPS+ (160-146-139-138-136)
Comment: Bresnahan was the best catcher of his time. This being said, it is quite obvious that Bresnahan would have had a much greater career at some other position. Bresnahan first made the Majors as a P, and was the starting CF for the Giants in 1903. He became the Giants’ catcher at the urging of Christy Mathewson for the good of the team. Bresnahan invented various devices to keep himself in the line-up as a catcher but had his career severely shortened by the inevitable injuries caused by catching at that time (and becoming a manager) anyways. The question is this: If he had been left in the outfield, how many career WS would Bresnahan have had? It’s pretty obvious that he would have had several seasons of over 30 WS and at least 350, probably over 400 career WS. It is hard to discredit the man for things he did to help his team win. Bresnahan could rate even higher than here.
   82. Gadfly Posted: March 06, 2005 at 06:10 PM (#1184005)
11) Howard (Earl) Averill, born May 1902 [CF]
ML 1929-1940 (12) 280 WS 27.17 (33-30-30-27-26) 132 OPS+ (159-149-147-143-137)
Comment: Averill was a very good outfielder whose baseball career started late and then was ended early by injuries. From 1926 to 1928, Averill was a Major League caliber player; he was just playing in the Pacific Coast League. Giving Averill credit for 1926 to 1928 brings him up to 15 years and 340 to 350 career WS. Without the late start, the exploding firecracker, and the back injury, Averill would have had a much more impressive career, with probably in excess of 400 career WS.

12) Edd Roush, born May 1893 [CF]
ML 1914-1931 (18) 314 WS 25.86 (33-33-30-28-23) 126 OPS+ (162-153-149-147-145)
Comment: Roush was a very good outfielder with several monetary related career interruptions, including sitting out the entire 1930 season. Without the interruptions, Roush would have had closer to 350 career WS. Roush also had his career slightly impacted by the First World War. When adjusting for WW1, his five-year peak (36-33-30-28-26) is a little more impressive. Roush, one gets the feeling, was not all that driven to play baseball, playing simply for the money. Although it is ultimately unknowable, it would be interesting to know how good Roush could have been if he was just a little more motivated.

13) Russell (Buzz) Arlett, born Jan 1899 [RF]
MN 1923-1937 (15) Best Major League Comp: Harry Heilmann/Babe Herman.
Comment: Quite comparable to Averill in value, Arlett simply played his entire career except for one year in the Pacific Coast League. In effect, his whole career is submerged. In his one injury-plagued Major League season at the age of 32, Arlett had 16 WS with an OPS+ of 135 while playing 107 games in the field. In other words, Arlett would have probably had a 25 or so WS season if he had stayed healthy and played the whole season. If he had played in the Majors from 1923 to 1937, Arlett would have had many seasons or 25 to 30 or more WS with about 350 or so career WS. Arlett is evidently the best minor league career superstars. There is evidence of his uniqueness when one tries to find a comparable Major League player. Heilmann and Herman are the closest comps, but not really dead on.

14) William (Bill) Monroe, born 1876 [2B]
NL 1896-1914 (19) Best Major League Comp: Larry Doyle playing good defense.
Comment: Monroe was a great player, quite comparable to Lundy, and much better than Newt Allen. But he is harder to reliably rank than any other player on this list, so the ranking is conservative. Indisputably a very good hitter, Larry Doyle is a good comp; but, unlike Doyle, Monroe had a very good defensive reputation. Monroe’s career was ended by his death in early 1915.

15) George Sisler, born Mar 1893 [1B]
ML 1915-1930 (16) 292 WS 23.02 (33-29-29-27-25) 124 OPS+ (179-169-163-159-153)
Comment: Without the 1923 sinus infection that affected his vision, Sisler would have probably finished with around 400 win shares and been an easy selection to the Hall of Merit. Even with his injury, Sisler has the peak, if not quite the career. Adjusting for World War One, his five-year peak (33-29-29-27-26), like that of Roush, is slightly more impressive. Sisler is the last man on the ballot, but there are many more players who could have been placed here.

Notes on Ballot:

This is my first ballot and I am pretty sure about the first ten guys, but 11 through 15 are certainly subject to change.

I used win shares mostly as my system becuase I think it is the best system yet devised and looked equally for peak and length of a player's Major League career.

However, I made allowances for these 5 things impacting the Major League career:

1) Negro League time: Since there is no reason to coninue the discrimination of the past. My list has six Negro Leaguers on it, including four of the first six, but I feel the Negro Leagues are still badly underrepresented in the HOM. In fact, there would be two more Negro League players, Alejandro Oms and Sol White, who would be on the list but I'm not sure they are eligible.

2) Minor League time: Especially when the player was obviously of Major League caliber and would have easily been employed by a Major League team. One thing I look for is whether the player was employed in a minor league city that is now Major League city.

3) Catchers: Especially from before there was quality catching gear to reduce injuries. As is stated in the Brenahan comment, I like to look at how the career would have gone if the player would have been able to hold another position.

4) Managers: Many star players used to have their career WS reduced because they accepted the higher paying Manager position. I've tried to make allowances for this also.

5) Monetary Interruptions: Many players, before free agency, had their careers interrupted by the fact that their salaries were completely at the owner's mercy. Some allowance should be made for this too.

The one thing I did not make allowance for is career-altering injuries.
   83. OCF Posted: March 06, 2005 at 06:48 PM (#1184051)
The title of "best friend of Negro League players" for this election will almost certainly go David C. Jones at 132 points. So far, Thane of Bagarth has 99 points and Gadfly 98. Lowest so far is yest at 17 points, with no one else below 32.
   84. DavidFoss Posted: March 06, 2005 at 07:06 PM (#1184074)
For some reason, Simmons career and talent faded badly after 1931. Perhaps, Simmons, who was well known as a clutch player, was badly affected by playing with second division clubs. But, in any case, Simmons was nowhere near as good from 1932 to 1940 as he had been from 1924 to 1931.

There was a bit of a fade from 32-34, but he was still in the 129-136 OPS+ range and piling up grey ink. The real drop-off didn't happen until 1935.
   85. Trevor P. Posted: March 06, 2005 at 07:07 PM (#1184078)
My debut ballot...again! I used my fingers AND toes to count this one.

#1) Turkey Stearns - sounds like Mel Ott to me.

#2) Aloys Szymanski - better than Goose Goslin, whom I had third last year.

#3) John Beckwith - I'm becoming a convert. Nudges ahead of GVH, Roush, and Rixey.

#4) George Van Haltren – long career, OPS+ above 120 (sort of a personal benchmark figure for me, the sabermetric equivalent of 2500 hits), and held his own as a pitcher. Gets a small bonus simply due to his versatility in 1888-90.

#5) Edd Roush – seems similar to GVH, with a higher OPS+ but lacking the pitching innings. I don’t quite understand his lack of support.

#6) Eppa Rixey – as a career voter, 4500 innings of above-average baseball (not counting another 200 or so for missing 1918) wins me over. The Jake Beckley of pitchers.

#7) Mule Suttles - my conservative placement right now.

#8) Dick Lundy – I like the suggested 121 OPS+ better than Joe Sewell’s 109. If we were going to pick one shortstop from the 1920s, I’d rather it be Lundy. Also seems to be an A fielder, much like Sewell, without ever shifting to third base. Long career.

#9) Jake Beckley – even without any supposed peak, still managed to post a 125+ OPS over 9500 plate appearances. Someone compared him to a turn-of-the-century Mark Grace; I’ll say John Olerud instead.

#10) Clark Griffith – looks like Cicotte, whom I’ve slotted one slot below him, except with more innings. One huge year (1898) and at least five others where I’d say he was an all-star candidate.

#11) Burleigh Grimes – doesn’t seem as impressive as Rixey, and initially that 107 ERA+ scared me off, but as Kelly from SD pointed out in the voting thread, Burleigh Arland was among the top three pitchers in his league six times, and one of the two best five times. Low defensive support, as well. Moves up on my ballot in relation to the players around him.

#12) Ed Cicotte – right now, the eligible pitchers – most of which are borderline candidate, to be sure – seem a step ahead of the borderline eligible position players. Over 3000 innings, an ERA+ at 123, and some massive peak seasons (1913, 1917, 1919).

#13) Wes Ferrell – another hurler. more peak than career, but only two seasons' worth of innings less than Ed Cicotte, and combining the 117 ERA+ with his impressive (for a pitcher) hitting gets him on the ballot. Dropped a few spots because he resembles Dean to me, who is not close to my ballot.

#14) Hugh Duffy – GVH with a shorter career but a higher peak. The fact that he’s #11 while Van Haltren is at the top of my ballot is a testament to how close I’m perceiving this class of players to be.

#15) Larry Doyle – short career, but that 126+ OPS is impressive for a middle infielder, even if he wasn’t exactly Ozzie Smith with the glove. Top three in the league twice.

16-20: Waddell, Averill, Schang, Ryan, Sisler

Disclosures:

George Sisler - just off my ballot at #20. Love his peak; plus, he's got enough of a remaining career to one day make it on.

Hughie Jennings - unfortunately, Jennings does not. The Dizzy Dean of hitters?

Joe Sewell - as I've said, I prefer Lundy to Sewell, who switched to third and dominated in a time when there were few other quality shortstops. Might make the bottom of my ballot one day, but for now, he's around 23-25.
   86. Andrew M Posted: March 06, 2005 at 07:08 PM (#1184079)
1946 Ballot

1. (new) Turkey Stearnes
2. (new) Al Simmons
I’m pretty sure these guys should be 1 and 2, though I am not as certain of the order to put them in. By reputation and ML projections, I’ll give the edge to Stearns, who I sense was a greater player for a longer period of time, though Simmons was an outstanding player who is all over the AL leader board in practically every offensive category for over a decade. Both men appear to have been excellent fielders, which is contrary to the mental image I always had of Simmons.

3. (3) George Van Haltren. A very good player for a very long time. Adjusting his career to 162 game seasons he has around 400 career WS with 3 seasons above 30, 6 more above 25, and an average of 28 per season. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching, for which I do give him some credit. R.I.P. George.

4. (6) John Beckwith. A great hitter who could also could play some SS and 3B. I’m not sure whether Dick Allen is the right comp, but this is the spot I thought I’d have Mule Suttles and I have come to believe that Beckwith may have been better.

5. (5) Clark Griffith. I suppose he’s a compromise between the high peak and long career pitchers on my ballot. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings, plus a notable peak level of performance between 1895-1901.

6. (4) Hugh Duffy. His season-adjusted peak/prime Win Shares over 3, 5, 7, 10 years are comparable to Simmons, plus good black and gray ink, A+ CF/OF defense, and an MVP caliber year (1894). Docked slightly for only playing 40% of his games in CF.

7. (new) Mule Suttles. The Willie Stargell comp here is interesting. Chris’s ML projections (295 BA, 524 SLG) wouldn’t seem to put him in the elite hitter category, but he played forever. As stated above, by reputation should be above Beckwith, but I’m not seeing it in the numbers and projections we have.

8. (5) Eppa Rixey. Throw out the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings tells me he should be on the ballot someplace.

9. (7) Larry Doyle. I’m sensing this is a lost cause, but I note that he has a higher career OPS+ (126) than all but a handful of 2B. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. The contemporary accounts I’ve read suggest that his fielding was indeed a concern, though the conclusions writers drew varied considerably. For me, I assume John McGraw would not have played him if his fielding was not adequate or his bat didn’t compensate for his fielding. Contemporary accounts also make it clear that he was considered a major star.

10. (8) Edd Roush. Looks very similar to Hugh Duffy to me with more games in CF. Arguably the best player in the NL during his peak (1917-1920.) At his peak, I’d argue he was better than several outfielders in the HoM, but he does lack consistency. A difficult player to get a real handle on.

11. (12) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak and a relatively short career, though I’m willing to make some allowance for era on this. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. 3, 5, 7 year aWS and WARP not quite up to Jennings, but 20% more plate appearances than Hughie.

12. (13) Dobie Moore. Given conservative credit for his 7 years in the army, his career begins to look long enough HoM worthy to me and moves him just ahead of Jennings on my ballot, though Hughie’s peak was perhaps slightly higher.

13. (12) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak—like the next guy….

14. (13) Wes Ferrell. I respect his WARP numbers and accept that he was a great pitcher for a brief time. Like Waddell, I go back and forth on whether he should be ranked either higher or lower than I have him.

15. (new) Earl Averill. Excellent player in the majors for a decade, and in the PCL before that. But for position, Bill Terry looks like the best comp for his MLB career. Another guy about whom WS and WARP differ on his fielding, as several have pointed out here. Interestingly (?), he was exactly one day older than Al Simmons, but Simmons had almost 3000 major league plate appearances before Averill got his first.

Next 5:
16. George Burns
17. Tommy Leach
18. Hughie Jennings
19. Jimmy Ryan
20. George Sisler

Required disclosures:
Jennings, Sewell, Sisler: All have been on my ballot in the past but are currently just off. Jennings, like Dean below, was a great player, but just not for long enough; Sewell’s caught behind the NeL infielders and big-hitting white 2B; and Sisler is due for a reevaluation as I’ve probably focused too much on his post-injury mediocrity and not enough on his pre-injury greatness.

New Guys
Dizzy Dean. I want to vote for him, but even if you grant that his peak is better than any other pitcher on the ballot, you’ve still only got 5 years to go on—though 1938 is probably as impressive a performance one is likely to find by a sore-armed pitcher.

Wally Berger. More peak than Averill, slightly less career. Another guy who just needed to play a few more years at his established level, but has his career shortened (apparently) by a shoulder injury.

Newt Allen. Not enough evidence that he hit well enough to deserve a ballot spot.
   87. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 06, 2005 at 07:40 PM (#1184128)
My debut ballot...again! I used my fingers AND toes to count this one.

It's a good thing then that the ballot doesn't have more than 20 spots. :-D
   88. Howie Menckel Posted: March 06, 2005 at 07:41 PM (#1184136)
Gadfly,
We've debated Oms and Sol White; the latter got a handful of votes for a number of years. It seemed Bill Monroe effecrively boxed him out, and even Monroe ultimately slid after being a top 11 to 20 guy for a number of years.
Both are very much still eligible...
   89. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 06, 2005 at 08:37 PM (#1184239)
It seems as if Gadfly is the biggest supporter of extra/minor league credit. Interesting to see someone give virtually all of the credit that could be given.
   90. Gadfly Posted: March 06, 2005 at 11:00 PM (#1184542)
Howie Menckel:
Thanks, I'll put both Alejandro Oms and Sol White in my 1947 ballot.

J. Schmeagol:
I try to only give credit for baseball actually played. But I am really simply making a timeline argument: 'What would the player's career have looked like under today's current (and probably for the foreseeable future) conditions?'

These conditions include:

1) Major leagues far and away the most lucrative with the minors just a training ground;
2) Financial incentive to maximize playing career;
3) Racial discrimination extinct (well mostly);
4) Playing manager position extinct; and
5) Catcher injuries nowhere near as prevalent due to equipment advances.

One always has to remember that today's baseball structure came about through a process of evolution and has not always been this way.

For example, I am sure that Buzz Arlett was just as famous and as wealthy in his time and place as his Major League contemporaries. Roger Bresnahan almost surely made more money as a catcher and as a playing manager than he would have if he had just played the outfield.

But neither of these things would be true today. No minor leaguer makes what a major leaguer makes. Every star player makes more than the manager (unless its Joe Torre, I guess). No player shorts his career to become a manager (or a catcher for that matter). No player has his career denied due to the color of his skin.

If Stearnes, Cravath, Arlett and Bresnahan played today, their careers would have been completely different simply due to these factors.

What I will not give credit for is anything that did not actually happen. Dobie Moore was a much greater player than Lundy or Monroe, but he broke his leg, ended his career, and gets no credit for what might have been. Sisler was a hell of a player too, but he gets no extra credit for his sinus infection either.

On the other hand, Gavy Cravath played baseball for over 20 years and no one sensible would deny that today his entire career would have been spent in the Majors.

And, if someone can prove to me that Charley Jones was playing ball from 1871 to 1875 and simply wasn't in the National Assocaition because he was doing better where he was, he'll move up my list too.

Two other guys I want to work up under my system are Frank Chance and Mike Donlin since both men had careers that were uniquely hurt by their times.
   91. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 06, 2005 at 11:31 PM (#1184597)
Gadfly,

I am not saying that I disagree with the credit given, I just found it interesting. It is kinda cool to have a voice like that.
   92. dan b Posted: March 07, 2005 at 01:18 AM (#1184773)
1.StearnsBy NHBA rankings will be the 12th best player in the HoM if he makes it this year.
2.SimmonsClearly the best available major leaguer on the ballot.
3.Suttles By NHBA rankings would be the 16th best player in the HoM if he were to make it this year.
4.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
5.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
6.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander put him in PHoM 1939. 4th in his era in Pennants Added.
7.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. Glad to see him on John’s ballot.
8.Leach PHoM 1926.
9.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
10.Averill 2nd to Simmons on 10-year peak.
11.W. Cooper Pennants added likes him. PHoM 1942.
12. Mays Pennants added likes him. I like these guys better than Vance or Faber.
13.Roush PHoM 1942.
14.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
15.Lundy Only Biz Mackey fared better in the Cool Papa’s survey.
16.Burns,GJ
17.Sisler
18.Berger
19.Redding
20.Sewell
   93. Sean Gilman Posted: March 07, 2005 at 01:32 AM (#1184794)
1946

1. Al Simmons (-)--He doesn’t blow the field away, but he’s still great.

2. Turkey Stearnes (-)--Could be number one, probably no worse than number two though.

3. Pete Browning (2)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

4. Mule Suttles (-)--Why do all the newly eligible Negro Leaguers have animal nicknames? Trails Browning and Jones on peak, but more career value than either of them.

5. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

6. Hughie Jennings (4)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

7. Cupid Childs (5)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .(1938)

8. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

9. Clark Griffith (7)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

10. John Beckwith (11)--Another bump for Beckwith as I become more and more convinced of his worthiness.

11. Larry Doyle (8)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

12. Joe Sewell (9)--In danger of either being elected or becoming underrated. Well, not so much anymore. . .

13. George Sisler (10)-- Comparison with Terry convinces me I was underrating him.

14. Ed Williamson (12)--Still no Ezra Sutton.

15. Jose Mendez (13)--Starting the run of moderately high-peak, moderately short career pitchers. They're pretty interchangeable.

16. Carl Mays (14)
17. Wes Ferrell (16)
18. Dave Bancroft (17)
19. Roger Bresnahan (18)
20. Dick Redding (19)
21. Eppa Rixey (20)
22. Hugh Duffy (21)
23. George Van Haltren (22)
24. Edd Roush (23)
25. Jimmy Ryan (24)
   94. Esteban Rivera Posted: March 07, 2005 at 02:59 AM (#1184913)
I feel like I'm visiting a zoo when glancing at the names of some of the new eligibles this year:

1. Turkey Stearnes - Using all available evidence, slots ahead of Simmons because of edges in position and career length. Fantastic player.

2. Al Simmons - Best major league carer among the current eligibles in my opinion.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

8. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

9. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

10. Mule Suttles - Still murky on how good he really was. On what I can safely sort out, this spot seems reasonable.

11. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

12. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

14. John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had. Finally am comvinced he should be on the ballot.

15. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

George Van Haltren - Consistency but not the best at position.

Wes Ferrell - Bumped off by the new eligibles.

Joe Sewell - A little more playing career and he would have been on the ballot. With all the new players still remains just off it.
   95. DanG Posted: March 07, 2005 at 05:41 AM (#1185180)
My #1 and #4 were elected. The deluge of greats resumes in 1946 with NeLers Stearnes and Suttles, plus Simmons and Averill from white ball. Grove and Hartnett look like the class of 1947, along with NeLer Jud Wilson. In 1948 another trio of top candidates with Gehringer, Lyons and Bell.

1)Al Simmons – Tough choice between him and Stearnes, both are n-b’s.

2)Turkey Stearnes – One of those guys who, before this project, you assumed would get an “elect me” vote. Nothing in the discussion has altered that image.

3)George Van Haltren (2,4,4) - Pennants Added study shows him well. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 37th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4)Clark Griffith (3,5,5) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young

3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

5)Tommy Leach (5,7,7) – Every time I think of dropping him, to get in line with the consensus, I look at the guys below him and go, “nah”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated. Voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Some voter are docking him too severely for league quality. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2000+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins

9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler
11—2122 J. Sheckard
12—2096 G. Davis
13—2087 S. Magee

14—2085 E. Konetchy
15—2032 T. Speaker

6)Earl Averill – Ranks above Roush on strength of league, otherwise very similar peaks and careers. James ranks them #14-#15 in centerfield.

7)Jimmy Ryan (6,8,8)— Most extra-base hits 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan

8)Edd Roush (7,9,9) – Pennants added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann

6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

9)George Sisler (8,10,10) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with most hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig

10)Eppa Rixey (9,11,11) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

11)Wes Ferrell (10,12,ne) – Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Pitchers completing 2/3 of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean
4—69.6% T. Lyons
5—69.3% R. Lucas

12)Roger Bresnahan (11,13,12) – Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett
4—117 J. Clements
4—117 W. Schang
   96. DanG Posted: March 07, 2005 at 05:42 AM (#1185181)
13)Hughie Jennings (12,14,14) – Does four years of ARod plus eight years of Ivan DeJesus equal a HoMer? Maybe. Bill James thinks highly of him, he’s #18 at SS in the NBJHBA. I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be? Most TC/G, 1889-1904, minimum 750 games at shortstop:
1—6.68 H. Jennings
2—6.45 B. Dahlen
3—6.40 B. Wallace
4—6.40 G. Davis


14)Hugh Duffy (13,15,15) – He kinda fell off my radar for awhile, until I realized he shouldn’t be very far behind Ryan. Peak puts him over Hooper, but he didn’t have a long career (12.5 yrs) for a corner OF. A WHOLE lot was context. Hit 82 of his 106 career HRs at home. Players with 2100 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1889-99:
1—2585 H. Duffy
2—2348 E. Delahanty
3—2141 G. Van Haltren
4—2135 B. Hamilton
5—2117 J. Beckley

15)Mule Suttles – Good slugger. Could move up.

Schang and Grimes fall off again.

John Beckwith – The current flavor of the month among the voters, it’s a good thing he’s going to be on the ballot a few more years. I am not able to reconcile the general disregard of his quality with the translations of his stats being generated here. A small error makes a huge difference. On a ballot as tight as 1945, there is not much difference between an elect-me spot and off-ballot, between 23 points and zero points. Until we have a reliable Negro leagues encyclopedia, we’re likely to be making qualitative mistakes with some of them. Lacking a procedure for periodic recall elections, I will continue to employ a healthy skepticism. In any case, Chris Cobb’s MLEs don’t show him as being quite near the Dick Allen class as a player.

Jake Beckley is off as I question the logic of equal positional representation. I see nothing wrong with saying that few of the best players in his day were first basemen, that the talent tended to congregate around shortstop. Being the best of a weak group does not accrue merit to a player, in my analysis. We’re looking for the best ballplayers, regardless of position.

Joe Sewell – A few spots off the ballot. Perhaps the best shortstop during a down time at the position. I easily prefer Jennings. Maybe Lundy, too. The next generation of shortstops blows him away (Cronin, Wells, Vaughan, Appling). Only 13 years as a regular, 8 at SS (1 more year than Jennings). OPS+ of 120 in just one season.
   97. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: March 07, 2005 at 06:54 AM (#1185263)
Oh, come on guys, wasn't Mule Suttles supposed to be an easy one? :) Anyway, another year with what should be uncontroversial results. Stearns and Simmons make my PHoM.

1. Turkey Stearns (new) A heck of a hitter, apparently able to adapt to any style of play, and a good enough fielder to play a lot of CF. I can't come up with any reason to argue with James' ranking. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Al Simmons (new) Didn't maintain his peak as long as you might have hoped, but still an excellent hitter and a good fielder, one of the best players in baseball for a decade. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Mule Suttles (new) Going this high in part based on reputation, and also because I'm not totally convinced about anyone below him on the ballot. He could move down, though.

4. Tommy Leach (3) I think I've said before, I have a weakness for what I see as "complete players", without a strong weakness in their argument, and Leach is that way to me. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Among the candidates he has one of the best career arguments. His peak isn't great, but it's certainly respectable. I'm not sure why he dropped off so much, if he's getting a "CF bonus" from Win Shares, what about Van Haltren? Made my PHoM in 1940.

5. John Beckwith (4) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around. This is still in flux, but for now he looks better than the middle infielders.

6. Wes Ferrell (5) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Comes out ahead of all the other ML pitchers in latest revision of my ranking system. Could be somewhere else entirely next year (OK, he wasn't, but I didn't really look at him again).

7. Bill Monroe (6) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Seems to have had a longer career than any of the other 2B candidates. Helped by Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Joe Sewell (7) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. Dick Redding (8) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not. I'm also not sure the teens need many more pitchers. I do think he's better than Mendez, but it's not an unshakable conviction.

10. Cupid Childs (9) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. I'd say his defensive advantage outweighs Doyle's offensive one. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Lazzeri. Made my HoM in 1932.

11. Earl Averill (new) His record appears close to the CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead.

12. George Van Haltren (10) Kind of a dividing line for me, as I can't see putting him in without Carey and Ryan as well. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That just doesn't seem like a HoMer to me.
(12A Max Carey)

13. Jimmy Ryan (11) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.
(13A Bill Terry)

14. Eppa Rixey (12) I might be underestimating him, and he did throw a ton of innings, but I still see him behind Vance and Ferrell. (I'm growing more convinced Faber was a mistake - which I eventually went along with, so a comparison isn't helping.) I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era.

15. Dick Lundy (13) I agree, the MLE’s look very similar to Sewell, with a bit less peak, so he’s a little lower. This could be on the high side, but he was a very good player.

(15A Sam Thompson)

16. Jose Mendez (14) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t quite match up to Redding.
(16A Rube Foster)
17. Hughie Jennings (15) His peak still leaps out at you, but there's just so little around it that I can’t put him higher than this.
18. Spotswood Poles (16) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good.
19. Ben Taylor (17) Maybe I'm underrating 1Bmen, but I'm not yet convinced. A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
20. Tony Lazzeri (18) Looks pretty close to Childs for me, although the Pennants Added could change that. Didn't think he'd be this high.
21. Rube Waddell (19) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
22. Jake Beckley. (20) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit.
23. Bobby Veach (21) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
24. Dave Bancroft (22) Looking at how their Win Shares compared to the rest of their leagues, Sewell does have an edge, but it's not a huge one. Wins the award for "Best Frankie Frisch Selection".
25. Dizzy Dean (new) Similar to Ferrell, but significantly behind. I'm not upset he's in the Hall of Fame, but he doesn't belong here.
26. Mike Griffin (23) I liked Joe's argument, he's very closer to GVH and Ryan in WARP in significantly fewer games, so he was packing a bigger punch. (Gadfly alert-I've been wondering whether the troubled end to his career entitles him to credit, check out the SABR Bio Project for details, or eventually I'll put in a discussion thread.)
27. Burleigh Grimes (24) Another pitcher from the 20's clump, closer to Rixey and Faber than I previsously thought.
28. George Sisler (25) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years.
29. Larry Doyle. (26) Amazingly similar hitter to Ed Konetchy, but definitely a worse fielder. Is the 2B offense better than the 1B Defense?
30. Charley Jones (27) Hard to be sure how much credit to give for the blacklisted years, but clearly a good player.
31. Newt Allen (new) May need a closer look, but he seems like very good for a long time but just not at HoM level.
34. Clark Griffith (30) I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers, he just lacks the greatness I feel I need to see.
   98. Jeff M Posted: March 07, 2005 at 07:02 AM (#1185265)
1946 Ballot

1. Simmons, Al – Solid across the board, for both peak and career, grey ink, contributed a lot to championship teams, whatever counting stats you like, etc.

2. Stearnes, Turkey – It seems pretty clear he is a HoFer. It is possible he was better than Simmons, but without comparable reliable data, I would not want to say so. Great combination of power and hitting, plus he played an important position at a high level.

3. Lundy, Dick – I see that most have Lundy slotted lower than Beckwith. I’ve been a bigger proponent of Beckwith’s than most, but I’ve got Lundy around 380 WS and Beckwith around 350, primarily due to defense (and position). They are both HoMers.

4. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at roughly 350 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is one hell of a number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

5. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

6. Suttles, Mule -- I fear that I have him too high, rather than too low. Players who can hit the ball a mile tend to develop long-standing reputations that are not necessarily reflective of overall abilities. That may not be the case here, but I remain a bit skeptical. At one time I scoured 64 lists of all-time great Negro League players. He made 6 of the lists. By contrast, his contemporary, Stearnes, made 13. I rate him lower than an average defensive player too. Riley basically says he caught everything he could reach, but implies strongly that he could not reach very much. In any event, he was probably a better hitter than Sisler, so I’ll put him a little ahead.

7. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

8. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

9. Waddell, Rube – I’ve was holding him behind Griffith because his win totals are less impressive, but RSI gives some of the reason why, so I’ve moved Waddell ahead rather than letting him float at the end of my ballot.

10. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor for an outfielder.

11. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

12. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM.

13. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, but was a peak performer and could swing the bat.

14. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

15. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good normalized counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

Required Disclosures:

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #20 in my system, behind Bobby Veach (but really just behind Max Carey) and ahead of Larry Doyle, Tommy Leach and Joe Sewell (but really just ahead of Goose Goslin). I need more brilliance than he provided.

Jennings, Hughie – Too short a career. He’s #43 in my system, behind Kiki Cuyler (but really just behind Al Spalding) and ahead of Rabbit Maranville.

Sewell, Joe – Tied for #21 in my system with Larry Doyle and Tommy Leach; behind Eppa Rixey (but really just behind Goose Goslin) and ahead of Jake Beckley (but really just ahead of Bobby Wallace).

Van Haltren, George – He’s #47 in my system, tied with Heinie Zimmerman and Jim McCormick; behind Herman Long; ahead of Charlie Buffinton (but really just ahead of Lip Pike). Hate him as a candidate.
   99. Kelly in SD Posted: March 07, 2005 at 12:04 PM (#1185377)
Some comments about Dick Allen.

Quick and dirty version: If Beckwith is a 20s/30s version of Richie / Dick Allen does that mean that Beckwith was similar to the Allen as described by Bill James, a fearsome hitter who destroyed the teams with which he played? And who is the real Allen?

Long version:
I have seen many people preface their comments about John Beckwith with a comparison to Dick Allen. I never saw Dick Allen play and the first sports pages I read were not until 1980 when I was 8. So all I have to go on are numbers, recollections of people who saw him play, and the effects he had on his teams on and off the field.
We can look at the numbers and see one of, if the not, the best hitters in the game from 1964-1974. But we can't see the effects his personality had on his team just by looking at the numbers. I'm bringing all this up, because I was rereading the Politics of Glory (every year during finals it seems).

James describes many of Allen's problems with teammates and management and finishes his description of Allen with "(Allen) did more to keep his teams from winning than anybody else who ever played major league baseball."
He ranks him the 15th best first baseman of all-time in the New BJHBA.

I don't know. I wasn't around for the 70s, let alone the 60s. I have heard that certain areas of Philadelphia were pretty awful then. Was he Randy Moss? Was he Allen Iverson? (I like Moss and Iverson.) Was he Barry Bonds? Was he misunderstood? Was he like certain current team athletes who consistently undermine their teams and head coaches?
What was different about him as opposed to other very vocal leaders of the era - Bill Russell, Jim Brown, who were able to lead their teams to victory?

Beckwith is on my ballot, but he is at the edges. Was Allen as bad as James says? Was Beckwith that bad? - from his thread it seems not. Any input would be helpful from those who were there (for Allen's playing time.)

If people want to respond in another year (26 elections / 1973) that's fine too.

Also, if there are some other, reasonably available, sources for Allen, that would be good, too.
Thank you.
   100. Tiboreau Posted: March 07, 2005 at 12:45 PM (#1185387)
1. Turkey Stearnes—The harmony between Norman’s reputation and his projected numbers solidifies his spot at the top of my ballot.
2. Al Simmons—Easily the top MLer eligible for election.
3. Mule Suttles—Based on his reputation alone, I originally had Suttles ahead of Simmons. Based on Chris Cobb’s projections (Thanks, Chris!) alone, he would be behind Beckwith and possibly Griffith, so I’ve compromised between the two.
4. John Beckwith—His spot on my ballot is mainly based on Gadfly’s inestimable opinion on his hitting and Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections.
5. Clark Griffith—A good balance between peak and career: His peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former.
6. Charley Jones—A legitimate star of the ‘70s, I finally decided to give him credit for his blacklisted years, jumping him from just off the ballot to here.
7. Eppa Rixey—Did not have a great peak, but Eppa was consistently real good for a long time. I have rearranged pitchers due to a different balance of career vs. peak value than position players.
8. Hughie Jennings—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprises of 73.4% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value.
9. Hugh Duffy—Excellent peak puts Duffy in the top 3 among ML outfielders behind Bucketfoot Al and Baby Jones; and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value ain’t too shabby, either.
10. Dobie Moore—Based off projections, estimates, and anecdotes, the Negro Leaguers are the wild cards of my HoM ballot. Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings.
11. Edd Roush—In 1947, 35 players received serious consideration for my ballot. Of those 35, 11 were outfielders, and of those 11, 8 were primarily center fielders. . . . Roush nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill; Bill James has Averill at #14 and Roush #15 in his list of top centerfielders
12. Earl of Snohomish—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the evergrowing glut of solid outfield candidates. I give Averill credit for his his performance in ’28 in the PCL.
13. Wes Ferrell—Comparable to Rube Waddell among peak pitchers, IMO. Waddell has the advantage in IP and ERA+; however, considering the difference in eras the gap in IP shrinks (if not balances in Ferrell’s favor), and his competent handling of the bat more than makes of the difference in ERA+, especially considering Waddell’s UER issues.
14. Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Miners.
15. Rube Waddell—See comments on Wes Ferrell.

Disclosures:
Jake Beckley—Very good career numbers, however, his peak numbers are among the lowest. Even with fielding adjustments, there are still other very good career, good peak guys I'd put ahead of him.
Joe Sewell—I see him as the third best infielder of his era when including Negro Leaguers Beckwith and Moore, and behind three other middle infielders: Jennings, Childs, and Doyle. So, Sewell falls just off my ballot.
George Sisler—I’ve changed my mind: while his peak is nice, it’s not good enough when combined with the second-half of his career. He’s sitting just off the ballot with Joe Sewell.
George Van Haltren—Had a long, solid career without ever being truly outstanding, so he falls just a few spots off of my ballot.
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