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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, March 14, 2005

1947 Ballot

Lefty Grove, Gabby Hartnett and Jud Wilson are the “big kahunas” from the Class of ‘47.

Top-ten returnees include: Mule Suttles, John Beckwith, Eppa Rixey, Earl Averill, Wes Ferrell, Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings and George Sisler.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 14, 2005 at 04:44 PM | 115 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Kelly in SD Posted: March 21, 2005 at 06:04 AM (#1209294)
1947 Ballot:
Happy 50th to the Hall of Merit.

Sorry, not much new on this ballot with 5 finals in the last week-plus. Just some cutting-and pasting. For more info, see my 1946 ballot for some in depth descriptions of most of these players.

1. Lefty Grove: PHOM 1947: Best white pitcher in history comes down to the Big Train or Lefty. ERA titles, strikeout titles, winning %age titles, innings pitched titles, great reliever.

2. Gabby Hartnett: PHOM 1947: Battles Cochrane for best catcher since 60 feet 6 inches pitching distance. Numerous best in league or best in majors.

3. Jud Wilson: Long career. High 300 avg with plenty of walks. Good power. Around 3000 hits. If comparable to Paul Waner, that is a HoMer, just not in an “elect-me” spot because Hartnett and Grove are candidates for best ever at their position.

4. Mickey Welch: Wins, quality of defense, record against other HoM, overall record.

5. Mule Suttles: Probably should lower his ranking some, but a long career with great power, played first which NeL’s took seriously for defense so could not have been awful. If his career is almost a combination of the value of Berger and Keller, that is a HoMer. Just not this election.

6. Charley Jones: Numerous all-stars. Great power. Great peak and prime. Had 2 and one-sixth seasons stolen by blacklisting that was the result of a dispute over contract terms.

7. Pete Browning: Great hitter. Great peak and prime and per season numbers. Numerous all-star appearances.

8. Hugh Duffy: Great defense. 2 times best player in the majors. Great prime, peak, and adjusted career totals. 3 other years in top 5 position players.

9. Earl Averill: Great defense. Best centerfielder in AL between Speaker and DiMaggio. 8 straight years best CF in AL, second two times to DiMaggio. In first 10 years in league, 9 times a top ten player by WS (Eleventh the other year). Give full credit for one year in PCL.

10. George Burns: Great peak and prime. Numerous all-star apps. Fantastic lead-off man. Great black and grey ink.

11. Jose Mendez: Sneaks in front GVH this election. Convinced by his thread he deserves to be on the ballot. Best Cuban pitcher (ever?). Also, has position play to add to value.

12. George Van Haltren: Lack of All-Star apps hurt, but was competing with the following HoMers: Billy Hamilton, Ed Delahanty, Jesse Burkett, Willie Keeler, Joe Kelley. 9 years of 25+ win shares adjusting for season length.

13. Moore: Great hitter at shortstop. Some credit for play with the Army. Great peak.

14. Vic Willis: 4000+ IP at 118 ERA+. 2 times best in NL, 2 other times second best in NL.

15. Wes Ferrell: I’ll take him over Beckwith. Great pitcher. No loss if second-best in your league to Grove. Great hitter. With no Grove, 3 times best in AL, 3 times second.

Not on Ballot:
Beckwith: 16. Too many good candidates. There must be some basis for all the bad press. Great power hitter who played third and some shortstop.

Jennings: Not enough good years. Great for 5 straight years, but his peak is not unique anymore. Top 20.

Griffith: Did not perform as often as starting pitchers normally did in his time. So he had a longer career, but lacked the big peaks. Top 20-22.

Sisler: Top 25 player. Peak and prime not high enough to get on the ballot. Career totals not high enough (when taking his era into account) to move up.

Rixey: Top 50 player. Low peak. Lots of good years. Much better support than his teammate Luque. I don’t think he was the number 1 for his teams. It was either Alexander, Luque, or Donohue (sp?).

Sewell: Top 50 player. Good defense. Good offense. Just many good players on ballot now. The best shortstops during his years were in the NeL.

Beckley: Great career totals. NO peak. Even adjusting for schedule length, never over 25 win shares. Best in his league only between one and three times.

New Players:
Buddy Myer: in my top 90. good secondbaseman, but not a long enough career or high enough peak.

Freddie Fitzsimmons: About 105th among all eligibles (but I don’t have all the Nineteenth C. or NeL players in the database yet.

Charlie Root: About 100th among all eligibles.

Looking forward to doing some catching-up and re-evaluating.
   102. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: March 21, 2005 at 06:18 AM (#1209306)
Oh, since I just caught up on the ballot discussion thread, I'm 33, and I was aware of the HoM from Joe's original article, but not really involved in the discussion (and my 1898 ballot was a mess mostly designed to just get something in.) Anyway, it's another simple year at the top of the ballot.

1. Lefty Grove (new) Off the top of my head, I feel like I'd put him #3 all-time, behind my one of my favorite (Johnson) and least favorite (Clemens) pitchers.

2. Gabby Hartnett (new) I do think he's better than Cochrane, but it's not something I'd fight a duel over.

3. Jud Wilson (new) Excellent hitter, played for some of the great teams, his fielding was apparently adequate. He obviously had a temper, should he be penalized for it? And, given that according to Gadfly he was 40 years old in 1937, yeah, that would have been the end of his career. Does seem to be a more complete player than Suttles or Beckwith. Scary-looking dude.

4. Mule Suttles (3) Going this high in part based on reputation, and also because I'm not totally convinced about anyone below him on the ballot. Was Bill James totally off base to have him in his top 100?

5. Tommy Leach (4) I think I've said before, I have a weakness for what I see as "complete players", without a strong weakness in their argument, and Leach is that way to me. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Among the candidates he has one of the best career arguments. His peak isn't great, but it's certainly respectable. I'm not sure why he dropped off so much, if he's getting a "CF bonus" from Win Shares, what about Van Haltren? Made my PHoM in 1940.

6. John Beckwith (5) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around, not an extremely long career.

7. Wes Ferrell (6) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Comes out ahead of all the other ML pitchers in latest revision of my ranking system, but could still shift around.

8. Bill Monroe (7) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Seems to have had a longer career than any of the other 2B candidates. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. Joe Sewell (8) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.

10. Cupid Childs (10) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. I'd say his defensive advantage outweighs Doyle's offensive one. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Lazzeri. Made my HoM in 1932.

11. Dick Redding (9) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not. I'm also not sure the teens need many more pitchers. I do think he's better than Mendez, but it's not an unshakable conviction.

12. Earl Averill (11) His record appears close to the CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead.

13. George Van Haltren (12) Kind of a dividing line for me, as I can't see putting him in without Carey and Ryan as well. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That just doesn't seem like a HoMer to me.
(13A Max Carey)

14. Jimmy Ryan (13) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.
(14A Bill Terry)

15. Eppa Rixey (14) I might be underestimating him, and he did throw a ton of innings, but I still see him behind Vance and Ferrell. (I'm growing more convinced Faber was a mistake - which I eventually went along with, so a comparison isn't helping.) I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era.
(15A Sam Thompson)

16. Dick Lundy (15) I agree, the MLE’s look very similar to Sewell, with a bit less peak, so he’s a little lower.
17. Jose Mendez (16) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t quite match up to Redding.
(17A Rube Foster)
18. Spotswood Poles (18) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good.
19. Hughie Jennings (15) His peak still leaps out at you, but there's just so little around it that I can’t put him higher than this.
20. Ben Taylor (19) Maybe I'm underrating 1Bmen, but I'm not yet convinced. A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
21. Tony Lazzeri (20) Looks pretty close to Childs for me, although the Pennants Added could change that. Didn't think he'd be this high.
22. Rube Waddell (21) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
23. Jake Beckley. (22) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit.
24. Bobby Veach (23) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
25. Dave Bancroft (24) Looking at how their Win Shares compared to the rest of their leagues, Sewell does have an edge, but it's not a huge one. Wins the award for "Best Frankie Frisch Selection".
26. Dizzy Dean (25) Similar to Ferrell, but significantly behind. I'm not upset he's in the Hall of Fame, but he doesn't belong here.
27. Mike Griffin (26) I liked Joe's argument, he's very closer to GVH and Ryan in WARP in significantly fewer games, so he was packing a bigger punch.
28 Burleigh Grimes (27) Another pitcher from the 20's clump, closer to Rixey and Faber than I previsously thought.
29. George Sisler (28) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years. Haven't looked at new WARP yet.
30. Larry Doyle. (29) Amazingly similar hitter to Ed Konetchy, but definitely a worse fielder. Is the 2B offense better than the 1B Defense?

35. Clark Griffith (34) I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers, he just lacks the greatness I feel I need to see.
   103. Sean Gilman Posted: March 21, 2005 at 12:00 PM (#1209536)
1947

1. Lefty Grove (-)--He’s really good.

2. Gabby Hartnett (-)--Him too.

3. Pete Browning (3)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

4. Mule Suttles (4)--Why do all the newly eligible Negro Leaguers have animal nicknames? Trails Browning and Jones on peak, but more career value than either of them.

5. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

6. Hughie Jennings (6)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

7. Cupid Childs (7)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .(1938)

8. Tommy Leach (8)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

9. Clark Griffith (9)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

10. John Beckwith (10)--Another bump for Beckwith as I become more and more convinced of his worthiness.

11. Jud Wilson (-)--Slotting him in behind Beckwith for now. They look pretty similar to me.

12. Larry Doyle (11)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

13. Joe Sewell (12)--In danger of either being elected or becoming underrated. Well, not so much anymore. . .

14. George Sisler (13)-- Comparison with Terry convinces me I was underrating him.

15. Ed Williamson (14)--Still no Ezra Sutton.

16. Jose Mendez (15)
17. Carl Mays (16)
18. Wes Ferrell (17)
19. Dave Bancroft (18)
20. Roger Bresnahan (19)
21. Dick Redding (20)
22. Eppa Rixey (21)
23. Hugh Duffy (22)
24. George Van Haltren (23)
25. Edd Roush (24)
   104. Chris Cobb Posted: March 21, 2005 at 03:14 PM (#1209559)
1947 Ballot

Getting back into the HoM discussions after a week+ away, longer than I had expected to be gone. I have a lot of catching up to do on various threads and on MLE work, but I’m going to get a ballot in quickly this morning so I don’t miss the election. Not that my vote will affect the outcome, but I hate to miss . . .

1. Lefty Grove (n/e). Dominance as a pitcher (leaving out fielding and hitting) unmatched before Pedro.
2. Gabby Hartnett (n/e). Highest career value of any catcher to this time.
3. John Beckwith (3) I think the evidence that Beckwith played the more demanding defensive positions when he was a teammate of Wilson’s shows clearly who had more defensive value. Beckwith’s argument over Wilson is a peak argument, but Wilson’s MLE-equivalent career wasn’t that much longer than Beckwith’s, unless you give him credit for a late start, which I’m not prepared to do. I think Beckwith and Wilson are both clear HoMers, in any case.
4. Jud Wilson (n/e). This placement is provisional, pending the calculation of win shares for Wilson, but I’m pretty confident he will land around here.
5. Clark Griffith (4). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length. Also the best pitching post-1893 candidate according to Pennants Added. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure.
6. Hughie Jennings (5). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
7. Eppa Rixey (6). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the late 1950s. Concerns about league quality drop him down my ballot a bit, but variability of individual NeL conversion factors makes me leary of placing too much weight on league-quality assessments. Head-to-head comparisons with Lyons and Ruffing a few elections down the road will be crucial to his HoM case.
8. Wes Ferrell (7). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM.
9. Mule Suttles (8). Revised MLE projections for the 1930s might move him up a few places, but I haven’t had time to account for those yet.
10. George Van Haltren (9). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet. Van Haltren was in an “elect-me” spot on my 1931 and 1932 ballots. I’ve lowered my view of outfielders in general since then, which caused Jennings to pass him, but everyone from Van Haltren up clearly merits eventual enshrinement, in my view.
11. Edd Roush (10). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
12. Tommy Leach (11) Finally getting his due. Won’t have a chance at election until the 1960s, but it looks like he’s more firmly on the radar now.
13. George Sisler (12). Nice peak. Although I don’t use WARP formally in my system, the revision of his value there makes me feel more confident about keeping him on my ballot.
14.Earl Averill (13). Lands between two other borderline cf candidates, Edd Roush and Spotswood Poles. This is giving Averill one full season of MLE credit for PCL play. Two seasons credit would put him right up with Roush and Van Haltren.
15. Larry Doyle (14). Best of an over-looked teens group of middle-tier stars.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot.
Hugh Duffy. Not far from my ballot at #23. I like Duffy pretty well, but I prefer Van Haltren among 1890s outfielders. I think WS overrates Duffy a bit due to his team beating pythagorean projections by a large margin through most of his peak seasons.
Jake Beckley. Liking him better as I give the quality of competition in his prime due weight. He’s now at #33. If we make good progress into the backlog in the 1960s-1970s, he could make my ballot.
Joe Sewell. Right behind Beckley at #34. Likely Beckley, I don’t see him as unworthy of the HoM, but, also like Beckley, I see him as near the bottom of a large group of borderline candidates. There really is a not a whole lot of difference between Beckley & Sewell and Doyle and Maranville, or anyone else in between 15 and 35.

The next 5:

16. Jose Mendez (15)
17. Rabbit Maranville (16).
18. Spotswood Poles (17).
19. Burleigh Grimes (18)
20. Dick Redding (19)
   105. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 21, 2005 at 03:40 PM (#1209568)
48 ballots at this point. Still missing ballots from: robc, mbd1mbd1, Philip, Big Joe, Michael Bass, Buddah, Guapo, jimd, Max Parkinson, Bleacher, RMc, Eric Enders and Flaxseed.
   106. Buddha Posted: March 21, 2005 at 04:26 PM (#1209603)
1) Grove: 2nd best pitcher ever, regardless of skin color.

2) Hartnett: Easily #2.

3) Sisler: Still underrated.

4) Waddell: Still love the K's and the ERA+. Dominating pitcher with a dimestore discount head. He'll never make it, but I'll keep voting for him anyway.

5) Jud Wilson: Seems a good place to start for him. Might be too high.

6) Duffy: What a peak.

7) Welch: Reevaluated him. We need more pitchers to go in. 300 wins is nothing to sneeze at. Neither is 500 innings pitched in one season. Seems to be almost on the level of his contemporaries who have made it.

8) Suttles: Still seems about right.

9) Averill: Career was too short to be any higher but too good to be much lower.

10) Traynor: Moving the third baseman up the ladder.

11) Beckwith: Moving up with Traynor.

12) Beckley: I have trouble placing Beckley. Never seemed to be in the upper-elite when he played, but he played for so long at a high enough level where I feel he deserves consideration.

13) Sewell: Great contact hitter. Like Beckley, he never seemed to be among the ultra-elite. However, unlike Beckly, he didn't stick around for almost 20 years BUT he did play a superb shortstop.

14) Van Haltren: Duffy without the monster peak.

15) Wes Ferrell: Giving credit for tremendous peak.


Near misses: Cuyler, Rixey, Grimes, Hack Wilson, Cravath, Frank Chance.
   107. Michael Bass Posted: March 21, 2005 at 09:53 PM (#1210033)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

New WARP not included for now, but I haven't been strict WARP for a while now. I'll give it a fresh look when we get back into the backlog, esp. with respect to Sisler.

No shock on the new PHOMers (yet again): Grove and Hartnett

Myer is well back in the glut, though he was a solid player. The pitchers are nowhere close.

1. Lefty Grove (1947) (new) - Duh. Not Big Train (who is?), but a top 5 pitcher in history easily.

2. Gabby Hartnett (1947) (new) - Another duh. Not sure I'd have him as the best catcher to date. For one, I'd have Deacon White ahead of him, though of course he's not a pure catcher like Gabby. Pure catcher, I would say he's the best we've seen; haven't compared him to Santop, but I think he'd come out on top there as well.

3. Jud Wilson (new) - Not sure on the placement here, hoping to get Win Shares before next vote. I think his peak was probably not what Beckwith's was, and his defense was below Beckwith as well, but he has prime and career all over Beckwith. As far as I can tell, an all-time great hitter.

4. Wes Ferrell (1945) (3) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

5. Hughie Jennings (1910) (4) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

6. José Méndez (1932) (5) - While Waddell is moving down, Méndez is staying steady. Why? Because I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

7. Joe Sewell (1939) (6) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit.

8. John Beckwith (1940) (7) - Liking him more and more, as his offense looks better and better, plus I've upgraded my assessment of his defense some. Don't think he can be below Suttles, at least as good of a hitter, and a much more valuable fielder even if you believe the worst about his defense. Actually moves up in my mind, but was far below Sewell on last ballot, so doesn't quite catch him.

9. Dizzy Dean (8) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

10. Rube Waddell (1926) (9) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me. Moves down a touch, as he didn't have quite as many big years as I'd like.

11. Mule Suttles (10) - Still not sold; defensively much worse than Beckwith and worse than Wilson as well. Offensively, not as good as either, though enough more career than Beckwith to close the gap a little. Still not seeing any good reason for him not to be 3rd in this grouping.

12. Clark Griffith (1927) (11) - We need more 1890s players. Griffith and Jennings are the two we should be looking at. As others have pointed out, we don't need more 1890s OF; need more infielders and pitchers. Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone.

13. Dick Redding (12) - Of similar value to Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. I'm really stuck the mid-ballot pitchers. Really have no confidence in my order, they're all very close.

14. Dobie Moore (13) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

15. Wally Schang (14) - I took another look at him, and his OPS+ combined with a long catcher career makes him the top backstop candidate in the backlog.


16-20: Averill, Cross, Dunlap, Monroe, F. Jones
21-25: Veach, Williamson, Bond, Browning, Sisler
26-30: Shocker, Buffinton, Childs, Taylor, Maranville
31-35: Grimes, Luque, Cuyler, Lundy, Schalk
36-40: Ryan, Poles, Mays, Lazzeri, Uhle




Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Sisler - I like him OK, but peak isn't nearly high or long enough to make up for the short productive career. New WARP has the potential to get him onto my ballot, but I'm not leaping to any conclusions.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. I've softened a bit on the old goat. He's a contender for my top 50!

Duffy - Well down on the OF list. Not in need of 1890s OFs.
   108. Max Parkinson Posted: March 21, 2005 at 10:19 PM (#1210076)
1947 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Grove and Hartnett)

1. Lefty Grove

A no-brainer for election. I’ve got him as the 6th-best pitcher to date, behind Johnson, Young, Alexander, Mathewson and Nichols.

2. Gabby Hartnett

The best NL catcher from day one at least until Bench.

3. Hughie Jennings

All-time greats will pass him, but he still holds that elusive (at least for me) “best player in the game” title...

4. John Beckwith

I went with the assumption that Beckwith in the big leagues wouldn't have lasted long at 3rd base, and would've ended up at 1st or left field. Taking Chris Cobb's WS estimates, I compared him to his contemporaries at the bat-first positions of LF,RF and 1B. He falls behind the no-brainers, but was comparable to Konetchy, Sisler and Keeler (not a true contemporary). Assuming average defensive value at 1B or LF, which is no stretch at all, he falls just ahead of Ed and Terry.

I understand that this is a conservative estimate of Beckwith’s defensive capability, but I can point to a number of current big-leaguers who were shortstops at AA or AAA or even for a year or two in the majors who would never be considered ML SSs or even 3rd basemen – Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell, not to mention Delgado and Phelps (catchers, which is a similar proposition of good bat at key defensive positions who got shifted leftward on the spectrum).

5. Jud Wilson

Was he better than Beckwith – to be frank, I’m not positive. They’ll both get in, so at this point, I’m not sure how much it’s worth arguing.

6. Dick Redding

I think he slots in best here. But really, I’ve got a system that has a possible point range from 0 to 5950. The Babe is #1 with just over 4600, and 5 other players are above 3000. 14 more are better than 2000. I’ve got 46 players (retired and active) between Jennings (1618) and Eddie Cicotte (1420), a gap of less than 200 points. If I think Redding’s in this region, the margin of error puts him anywhere from 4 to 35 on this ballot.

7. Wes Ferrell

The peak/prime voter in me. I don’t hold his (unsuccessful) comeback attempts against him at all.

8. Ed Konetchy

Ahead of Sisler? Well, it’s close but yes. Whereas Rixey had the better extended prime than Faber, it wasn’t better by enough to overcome Faber’s peak lead. Here, Konetchy’s prime is better by enough to overcome Sisler’s peak. Take defense for example. Sisler was acknowledged as a great glove man, but it was really only true while he was young. Konetchy was as good as that for most of his career. Konetchy never had Sisler’s great few seasons, but he wasn’t nearly as bad at his worst.

9. Mule Suttles

I’m a little concerned about how great he really was (I’m starting to question how often he would have been a first team all-star, what with Gehrig and Foxx, with sometimes Terry and Greenberg playing at the same time...), but here seems good enough for now. I’ll have more time to review the NL threads over the next couple of weeks.

10. Harry Hooper
11. George Burns

An excellent defensive RF, who would have played centre if an all-time great wasn’t there, and a great leadoff hitter of the teens.

12. Rube Waddell

A beneficiary of my correction for previously overpenalising poor-hitting and poor-fielding pitchers. He was certainly both. But those K’s…

13. Clark Griffith

As discussed in the Mickey Welch thread, Griffith is the best pitcher not yet inducted from a pretty damn good era of baseball, the one-league late ‘90s, where the other 3 are inner-circle types in Young, Nichols and Rusie. Contrast Welch, who would be at best the 7th best pitcher from his decade. Note the late ‘90s (as it’s true that Stivetts and Breitenstein would give him a run for his money if the pre-mound days were considered…)

14. Bobby Veach

Peak was higher than Hooper, but prime not as long. Was the 3rd best OF in the AL a few times; not too shabby when the other 2 are Cobb and Speaker.

15. Bill Monroe


Others:

16-20. Sisler, Grimes, Cuyler, Sewell, Moore
21-25. Uhle, Maranville, Rixey, Taylor, Shocker
26-30. Lundy, F. Jones, Roush, Bancroft, Mays
31-35. C. Jones, Mendez, Luque, Cicotte, Pennock
36-40. Duffy, Quinn, Leach, Averill, Seymour
41-45. Allen, Hoyt, Fletcher, Tinker, Shawkey
46-50. Lazzeri, Rommel, Buffinton. Youngs, Willis
51-55. Traynor, Dean, Bottomley, Bush, Stivetts
56-60. Dauss, Winters, Cross, Williamson, McGraw

Beckley is 61.
GVH is 74.
   109. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 21, 2005 at 11:11 PM (#1210156)
1. Lefty Grove (n/e) - Duh.

2. Gabby Hartnett (n/e) - Double Duh.

3. Eppa Rixey (2) - He'd be over 300 CJ wins (and around 370 WS) if he hadn't served in the military in 1918-19. 300 game winners are a rare breed (especially after 1892) and in just about any other conditions before 1985, Rixey would have been one. It's a shame that he's considered a mistake Hall of Famer by many because of his W-L record, which was tainted by pitching for some bad teams. He's every bit as good as Robin Roberts was, for example.

4. Charley Jones (4) - Give him credit for his blackballed years at .0875 per year and he's at .889 PA. That's basically his 1878, he was better than that in 1879, 1884 and 1885. Throw in 33 WS per year and we're at 343. Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow.

5. Hughie Jennings (5) - The Sandy Koufax of position players. Crammed 9 years production into 5 magnificent seasons.

6. Clark Griffith (6) - He was a true star - though earlier pitchers seem to have an advantage on PA (more innings in a season = more pennant impact). He falls behind Rixey when Rixey's war credit is included. It was also tougher for pitchers to have the same pennant impact in Rixey's era, so ties tend to go to the modern pitcher on this basis.

Why the rush on McGinnity and the stonewalling of Griffith? I just don't get it. I think we were way too friendly to McGinnity, but I can't see how he'd be in and Griffith out - Griffith absolutely deserves eventual induction.

7. Bill Monroe (7) - Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he was a star.

8. Jud Wilson - seems like he was a very good hitter, the fact that he was a 3B pushes him ahead of Suttles.

9. Mule Suttles (8) - Big time bat, and another of Cooperstown's missing NL stars.

10. Gavy Cravath (9) - Too much to ignore - either he was a freak of nature or there's a lot missing. Just giving him 4 years of extra credit at .075 PA, or 29 WS per season (he was better than that 3 times in his 30s) moves him to 336 WS, .833 PA.

11. Jake Beckley (10) - A very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. 11 seasons over 20 WS, which is understated by about 2-3 per season because of WS undervaluing 1B in his era. That has a lot of value in my opinion.

12. Wes Ferrell (11) - Great pitcher at his best and a good hitter. Combined value higher than I ever realized.

13. Earl Averill (12) - There's a lot to like here. I need to take a better look at his pre-MLB record, I could very well have him too low.

14. Tony Lazzeri (13) - Quite a hitter for a 2B. I like him better than Childs (though they are quite similar) because 2B was more important defensively in Lazzeri's time.

15. Mike Griffin (14) - We're forgetting about him guys. Great defense, very good offense and a star during the one league era, where it was tougher to stand out. Reassessment moves him back onto the ballot.
   110. jimd Posted: March 22, 2005 at 12:46 AM (#1210283)
Ballot for 1947

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

In the midst of revising my system (yet again). Maybe next election.

1) L. GROVE -- Best pitcher of his generation, by far.

2) G. HARTNETT -- Best NL catcher of his generation, by far.

3) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

4) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

5) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

7) J. WILSON -- Is he the best of the Wilson/Suttles/Beckwith trio?

8) J. BECKWITH -- Now there's doubts.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

10) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

11) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Excellent defensive fielder does not get enough credit.

12) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

13) M. SUTTLES -- Not Turkey Stearnes but not chopped liver neither.

14) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

15) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Rabbit Maranville, Hugh Duffy, Jimmy Ryan, Harry Hooper,
20-23) Dick Redding, Eppa Rixey, Ned Williamson, Ray Schalk,
24-27) Herman Long, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick, Wally Schang,
28-31) Edd Roush, Jose Mendez, Gavy Cravath, Earl Averill,
32-35) Roger Bresnahan, Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
36-40) Del Pratt, Sam Rice, Jack Quinn, Dizzy Dean, Tommy Bond
   111. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 22, 2005 at 01:00 AM (#1210301)
If anyone has ballot counts, you can e-mail them now so I can correct any possible mistakes. Thanks!
   112. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 22, 2005 at 01:16 AM (#1210314)
9. Mule Suttles

I’m a little concerned about how great he really was (I’m starting to question how often he would have been a first team all-star, what with Gehrig and Foxx, with sometimes Terry and Greenberg playing at the same time...),


That's one of my problems with him, Max.

As for Suttles over Beckwith (we don't have Wilson's MLE's to make a comparable argument for him yet), Beckwith had almost as many WS in a shorter career. I wish Beckwith was at least getting comparable support as Suttles has been getting.
   113. mbd1mbd1 Posted: March 22, 2005 at 01:19 AM (#1210315)
(am I on time? I thought the deadline was 8pm eastern.)

1947 ballot: I've been snowed under at work lately and haven't had as much time as I'd like. Fortunately this is a relatively easy year, and besides I just can't abide missing two years in a row.

1. Lefty Grove - Welcome.
2. Gabby Hartnett - A clear top two, much like last year.
3. George Van Haltren - He's going to the top of the career votes tally soon, right? Our epitome of the HoVG.
4. Jimmy Ryan -
5. Edd Roush -
6. Mule Suttles - I haven't been able to digest his thread yet; I'm not sure this is where he'll stay on my ballot. I like him better than Beckwith.
7. Kiki Cuyler - I'm pretty far off consensus on Ryan and Cuyler.
8. Joe Sewell - I'm surprised that he keeps slipping.
9. Hugh Duffy -
10. Sam Rice -
11. Jake Beckley - Jake and GVH and Duffy probably won't ever get over that hump.
12. Harry Hooper - Yeah, I'm high on the long career outfielders.
13. Larry Doyle - I had him on for several years in the late 30's, he's gradually worked his way back as we get through the great classes of the early 40's.
14. Eppa Rixey - I'm still too tough on the pitchers.
15. John Beckwith - Hanging around.

next five: Leach, Bresnahan, Averill, Sisler, Waddell. I'd like Averill a lot more with a couple more seasons; by my count he's got about 11 full years. He looks a lot like Cuyler to me though. Ferrell was have been just off my ballot last year; Griffith is behind Ferrell, Mays, Mendez, and Willis....I'm working through the pitcher imbalance thing. Jennings doesn't appeal to the career voter in me.
   114. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 22, 2005 at 02:04 AM (#1210351)
The election is now over. Results will be posted momentarily.
   115. OCF Posted: March 22, 2005 at 02:19 AM (#1210370)
Ah - consensus scores were going to average above 9 until mdb1mdb1 posted that last ballot. Now we're going to have to settle for 8.9.

I have Grove + Hartnett at 1296 + 1193 = 2489 points. What was the two-candidate point record again?

That's 54 ballots, with Grove unanimous and Hartnett appearing on all 54 ballots and 2nd on 48 of them.
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