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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, May 09, 2005

1951 Ballot

The prominent newbies: Jimmie Foxx, Bob Johnson, Harlond Clift, Ben Chapman, Paul Derringer, Dolph Camilli, Rick Ferrell, Tony Cucinello, and Curt Davis.

The top-ten returnees: Joe Cronin, Mule Suttles, John Beckwith, Earl Averill, Eppa Rixey, Wes Ferrell, Biz Mackey and Hughie Jennings.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 09, 2005 at 12:16 AM | 97 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 09, 2005 at 01:05 PM (#1322903)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).



1) Jimmie Foxx-1B/3B/C (n/e): A true monster of a player, his numbers are staggering despite the fact that he was done by 36. Best AL third baseman for 1928. Best major league first baseman for 1929, 1932, 1933, 1938 and 1939.

2) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (3): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. Probably would have been the best major league third baseman for 1923 and 1929, as well as the best major league shortstop for 1925, if he had been allowed to play.

3) Joe Cronin-SS (4): Overrated over the years, but still a HoMer, IMO. Best major league shortstop for 1930.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (5): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (6): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

6) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (7): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league rightfielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

7) George Van Haltren-CF/P (8): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

8) Tommy Bridges-P (9): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

9) Jake Beckley-1B (10): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

10) Wally Schang-C (11): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

11) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

12) Mickey Welch-P (13): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (14): I like him better than Suttles, FWIW. I'm comfortable enough with his MLEs to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league rightfielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

14) Frank Chance-1B/C (15): Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

15) Pete Browning-CF/LF (n/e): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

Suttles, Rixey, Ferrell, Averill, Mackey and Jennings all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: May 09, 2005 at 01:39 PM (#1322930)
Foxx is an easy #1, top third of the HOM I’d say. Indian Bob is a slightly inferior Klein; I prefer Hack Wilson to either, on reflection. Derringer lots of decisions but weak ERA+ and inflated by war years, so off the bottom of consideration set, just.

1. (N/A) Jimmie Foxx REALLY good. I wonder to what extent our stats on the early 30s are skewed by having Ruth/Gehrig/Foxx all blasting away simultaneously. TB+BB/PA .662, TB+BB/Outs 1.124.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp, finally (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

4. (N/A-9) Joe Cronin Only 2285 hits, surprisingly short career, but that’s pretty solid – only 97 during war years. OPS+119, TB+BB .521, TB+BB/Outs .824. Significantly better than Schang, moved the old bastard up a bit.

5. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP, decided I’d been undervaluing him, so moved him up the ballot a bit further. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

10. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: May 09, 2005 at 01:40 PM (#1322932)
11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice. Decided he’s not quite as good as Rixey or Leever, after seeing Kelly’s figures.

13. (N/A-13-14-14-13-13) John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson. Also, Chris Cobb’s equivalents are looking more solid to me. Definitely better than Suttles, but had a short career.

14. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes. Just off in this strong year.

15. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Just edges onto the ballot as an extra slot opened up.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-14-14) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA.575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

17. (N/A) Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits.
18. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
19.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
20. (N/A) Mule Suttles. About halfway between Reggie Jackson and Dave Kingman -- out rather than in, I feel, but still close to the boundary – have moved him up a little.
21. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
22. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
23. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
24. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
25. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
26. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
27. (N/A) Heinie Manush
28. Earl Averill
29. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).
30. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell
31. Wes Ferrell
32. (N/A) Dick Lundy
33. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
34. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
35. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
36. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
37. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
38. Cool Papa Bell. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
39. Kiki Cuyler
40. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire.
41. Deacon McGuire
42. Jack Quinn
43. Tony Mullane
44. Pye Traynor
45. Jim McCormick
46. Dick Redding
47. Joe Judge
48. Edd Roush
49. Spotswood Poles.
50. Larry Doyle
51. Roger Bresnahan.
52. Wayte Hoyt.
53. Harry Hooper.
54. Jules Thomas.
55. Wilbur Cooper
56. Bruce Petway.
57. Jack Clements
58. Bill Monroe
59. Jose Mendez
60. Herb Pennock
61. Chief Bender
62. Ed Konetchy
63. Jesse Tannehill
64. Bobby Veach
65. Lave Cross
66. Tommy Leach.
67. Tom York
   4. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: May 09, 2005 at 02:19 PM (#1322993)
31. Wes Ferrell

karl, question for you. As I recall, you were a giant-sized fan of Bob Caruthers. Why the low rank of Ferrell? In my mind at least, Ferrell's as close to Caruthers as any 20th century pitcher.
   5. karlmagnus Posted: May 09, 2005 at 02:41 PM (#1323032)
I'm not strongly anti-Ferrell, but his reputation as a hitter is overblown. OPS+ 100 compared with Caruthers' 135. As a picher, Caruthers was also better (MUCH better W/L pct. though overall I grant you it's close.
   6. andrew siegel Posted: May 09, 2005 at 03:15 PM (#1323095)
Some substantial tinkering as I move OF's down a bit and IF's up and as I come to grips with persuasiveness of Chris's numbers.


(1) Jimmie Foxx (new)--One of my alltime favorite players. Inner circle.

(2) John Beckwith (7th)-- Hard not to credit the translations at least for ORDERING the Negro Leaguers offensively. Unless something is screwy with the park factors, he was a noticeably better offensive player than Suttles and would have had more defensive value whereever he was used. That puts him into a three-way scrum with Cronin and Jennings and, while it's very close, I find it hard not to take him over a substantially worse hitting medicore fielding SS and a SS who's career was half as long.

(3) Cronin (2nd)--An easy, middle-of-the-pack HoMer. Compotent SS's who hit like him are hard to find.

(4) Hughie Jennings (3rd)--Career too short to nose out two guys above.

(5) Mule Suttles (4th)--As I've said before, 480ish HR's and a .310 or so batting average with 40-50 walks per season and a long durable career more than sell me on the Mule.

(6) Earl Averill (6th)--Best OF on the ballot, though the gap from 1st to 20th isn't that substantial.

(7) George Van Haltren (10th)--Moving him back up a few spots among OF's after reexamining his record--sheer volume of his achievements is impressive.

(8) Hugh Duffy (9th)--Not the best player in baseball in the early 1890s by any metric other than WS; still, played every day and did everything well for one of the best teams of All-Time while putting up impressive numbers.

(9) Cupid Childs (12th)--If WS overrates 1890s OF's, it almost by definition underrates 1890s IFs. Two solid years short of competing with the guys ranked 2nd-4th.

(10) Wes Ferrell (8th)--Though achieved very differnently, I find his total merit to be very similar to that of Rixey and Grimes. (Incidentally, he's number 100 on my All-Time Top 100 through 1952.)

(11) Eppa Rixey (13th)--Just waiting his turn.

(12) Burleigh Grimes (14th)--I'm with the crowd that seems him as essentially even with Rixey.

(13) Dobie Moore (off/16th)--There's a real chance he might rank with the guys 2-4; I hold back because I'm not 100% sold on the quality of his competition, because the data is so fragmentary, and because we have evidence that he was batting 8th and playing 3B for the equivalent of a AA team just a few years before he is supposed to be the best player in baseball.

(14) Biz Mackey (11th)--Suffers (maybe unfairly) in comparison to Gibson; his move down is coordinated with Beckwith's move up--I'm trusting the numbers a bit more this week.

(15) Charley Jones (off/17th)--My system has him next best among 25 fairly similarly ranked candidates for this spot; no reason to distrust it.

Sisler is in the next five but doesn't quite have a high enough peak for a peak candidate; Griffith didn't pitch enough innings in comparison with his contemporaries.

Indian Bob Johnson is around 30th, in the same general neighborhood as Veach, Berger, and Cuyler, well ahead of Manush, Wilson, Klein, et al.

Indian Bob Johnson is somewhere around 30, although I am still trying to reconcile WARP's love for him with WS's tepid review. No other newbies even register.
   7. ronw Posted: May 09, 2005 at 03:15 PM (#1323096)
1951 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. All-Star candidate is roughly the top 16 pitchers and top 32 players. MVP candidate is anyone with double the WS numbers of the worst All-Star candidate in that season. I have incorporated WARP and Pennants Added.)

1. Jimmie Foxx Next. MVP Candidate 1929-30, 1932-1935, 1938-1939. All-Star candidate 1928, 1931, 1936-37, 1940-41. (14 HOM seasons). PHOM 1951

2. Joe Cronin One of the top shortstops in history. MVP Candidate 1930-33, 1938, All-Star candidate 1929, 1934-35, 1937, 1939-41. (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1951.

3. John Beckwith Great hitter whose reputation has been tarnished by history. PHOM 1942.

4. Mule Suttles At first glance, it seems Beckwith was a better fielder, and may have struck out less. PHOM 1949.

5. Cool Papa Bell I always had Carey right behind Van Haltren and Beckley. I think Bell is a little bit better than all three.

6. George Van Haltren Only one season among top 8 players (1898). Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

7. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

8. Jimmy Ryan Had a nice peak 1888-1891, better than both Beckley and Van Haltren. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

9. Earl Averill Dominant during his career. MVP Candidate 1931, 1932, 1934, All-Star Candidate 1929-30, 1933, 1935-1938. (10 HOM seasons)

10. Eppa Rixey Consistently above average. Looking at measures other than Win Shares, he barely sneaks by Grimes. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1920-1925, 1927-1929, war credit 1918 (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1939.

11. Wes Ferrell Great peak. MVP Candidate 1930, 1935-1936. All-Star Candidate 1929, 1931-1934, 1937. (9 HOM seasons)

12. Dick Redding Redding belongs with the long-career pitchers.

13. Burleigh Grimes I think he is being overlooked by the electorate, especially given his 1918-1924 peak. MVP candidate 1918, 1920. All-Star candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1930. (10 HOM seasons).

14. Biz Mackey Dwarfed by Gibson, but still HOM material.

15. Bill Monroe Makes my list of underappreciated Negro League greats this week.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)

Bob Johnson – Indian Bob was a fine player. He rates in my system as surprisingly similar to some other overlooked LF, Bobby Veach and Elmer Smith. He’s also close to the better-known Harry Hooper and Kiki Cuyler. There is a thin line between this group and electee Joe Kelley. MVP Candidate 1939, 1944, All-Star candidate 1933-38, 1940-43, 1945 (13 HOM seasons).

Missing from my PHOM:

Lyons (first on the missing list, would rate #9 on this ballot)
Terry (will make it some day)
Coveleski (will make it some day)
Vance (will make it some day)
Faber (may never make it, even with the peak adjustment)
Thompson (will never make it)
   8. OCF Posted: May 09, 2005 at 05:13 PM (#1323335)
1951 ballot.

1.Jimmy Foxx (new) The man could hit.
2. Joe Cronin (----, 3) The second best-hitting major league shortstop we've seen - third best if you count Vaughan - and that's not a close call.
3. John Beckwith (5, 5, 4, 2, 4) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit.
4. Larry Doyle (6, 6, 5, 3, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
5. Joe Sewell (4, 3, 3, 4, 6) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. I've been his best friend; even lowering him a little, I'm probably still tied for his best friend. He nearly got elected once, and there's still a lot there.
6. George Van Haltren (7, 8, 8, 6, 7) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
7. Eppa Rixey (8, 9, 9, 7, 8) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
8. Wes Ferrell (9, 10, 10, 8, 9) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
9. George "Mule" Suttles (3, 7, 7, 9, 10) Was he Willie Stargell? Willie McCovey (only shorter)? Or someone else entirely?
10. Earl Averill (10, 11, 11, 10, 11) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
11. Jake Beckley (11, 12, 12, 11, 12) Not much peak, long career.
12. Biz Mackey (---, 12, 13) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
13. Hugh Duffy (13, 14, 14, 14, 15) 44th year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.
14. Cupid Childs (12, 13, 13, 13, 16) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
15. Tommy Bridges (---, 15, 17) RA+ PythPat 190-124, which is a record that has to be taken seriously. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
16. Cool Papa Bell (--, 15, 16, 18) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
17. Edd Roush (14, 15, 16, 17, 19) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey. He'll make it back to my ballot.
18. George Sisler (15, 16, 17, 18, 20) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
19. Bob Johnson (new) A late bloomer, excellent hitter, steady career. WWII discount keeps him out of the top 15.
20. Pie Traynor (16, 17, 18, 19, 21) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy.
21. Frank Chance (17, 18, 19, 20, 22) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
22. Rube Waddell (18, 19, 20, 21, 23) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
23. Jose Mendez (19, 20, 21, 22, 24)
24. Roger Bresnahan (20, 21, 22, 23, 25) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
25. Dick Redding (24, 25, 24, 25, 26)
26. Jimmy Ryan (23, 24, 25, 26, 27) I've let way too much space creep in between him, Van Haltren, and Duffy, but I don't know how to resolve that.

Jennings doesn't make the top 25 because his peak isn't enough for me. Griffith suffers from lack of IP relative to his times. They're close.

Harlond Clift: if he'd done that for about 2 more years, I'd vote for him. Career is too short.

Rick Ferrell: Obviously had value, to be kept in the lineup for so many years. Not enough bat in our context.

Paul Derringer: Rixie minus a small margin of effectiveness. That small margin matters.

Curt Davis: For a considerable portion of baseball history, most pitchers were "swingmen", a hybid of starter and reliever. Davis was very good at it - worth mentioning, but not quite worth voting for.
   9. Jim Sp Posted: May 09, 2005 at 07:24 PM (#1323649)
Clift #37, Rick Ferrell #52. Camilli, Ben Chapman, Derringer, and Curt Davis had nice careers but aren’t close to the ballot.

Griffith, Bresnahan, Welch, Joss, and Jose Mendez are in my PHoM but off my ballot.

1)Foxx--Something like #40 all time, overwhelmingly qualified.
2)Cronin--Clearly qualified.
3)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
5)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA.
6)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
7)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
8)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. He made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
9)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
10)Suttles--Struggling with where to put him.
11)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
12)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
13)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
14)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
15)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.

Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #20.
   10. David C. Jones Posted: May 09, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1324025)
My 1951 ballot:

1. Jimmie Foxx. My cousin, a huge baseball fan who also has a great knowledge of history, and I once played a game one day when we were bored where one of us would throw out a statistic, and the other person would then say the first player who came to mind. As we were moving along, my cousin said, "Slugging percentage" and I immediately said, "Jimmie Foxx."

2. Joe Cronin. I have him as about the seventh best SS in baseball history, though the ranking fluctuates depending on whether you consider Banks, Yount, and A-Rod as primarily shortstops. Good glove, very good offensive player, fairly consistent over the course of his career. Probably a touch overrated in the past because, before Ripken, the American League didn't have a history of great shortstops, so he was frequently cited as the best in the history of the league.

3. Buzz Arlett. And so the campaign begins. I actually don't pay much attention to his excellent pitching at the beginning of his career. All I had to do to put him third was focus on his hitting, which appears to me to be at the level of a Harry Heilmann or Al Simmons, though I doubt his defense was anything to write home about.

4. John Beckwith. I think his detractors aren't giving him enough credit for his defense, for playing shortstop and third base throughout his career.

5. Mule Suttles. A better hitter than Beckwith, I think, but probably subpar defensively.

6. Pete Browning. Last election someone encouraged me to give him another look, and I did, and now I think others should give him another look as well. Do you like peak? If you do, you really ought to explain why Browning is not on your ballot (if he isn't there already). Career OPS+ is 162. That's career OPS+ of 162. He was awesome from the moment he stepped into the American Association until he drank himself into oblivion 13 years later. He was a great hitter in three different leagues: the American Association, the Players League, and the National League. He'd be higher if only he had taken better care of himself.

7. Gavy Cravath. Kind of like Browning. My reevaluation of his minor league numbers, in conjunction with his already impressive major league stats, places him here.

8. Jose Mendez. I think for a couple of years he was in the Walter Johnson, Smokey Joe Wood class of pitchers, though he didn't stay there for long. But his success in the early 1920s suggests he had enough staying power.

9. Edd Roush. 6.09 Runs Created per 27 outs for a very good defensive outfielder.

10. Wes Ferrell. In 2,660 innings, career ERA+ of 117. In 1,345 plate appearances, career OPS+ of 100.

11. Rube Waddell. Okay, he gave up too many unearned runs. But let's focus on the positive for a second. He led the league in strikeouts per 9 innings pitched 8 times in the span of 9 years, and his walk totals weren't too bad. How is this guy not deserving of the HOM, particularly if you like peak? This guy had an extended peak that was truly impressive, and was one of the most dominant pitchers of the 1900s.

12. Dick Redding. One of the best strikeout pitchers of the 1910s.

13. Ben Taylor. A good-fielding, great-hitting first baseman. Very similar to Sisler: Started out as a pitcher and moved to first base. Riley credits him with a lifetime .334 batting average, which of course is not at Sisler-level when you adjust for quality of league, but Taylor played effectively for much longer than Sisler.

14. George Sisler. A baseball fan from the 1920s would be astounded that we hadn't elected Sisler yet, and that one of his supporters would even have him this low. I still can't quite get my mind around how it is that Sisler is on the outside of the HOM, and Terry is on the inside.

15. Dick Lundy. I believe he was one of the top fielding shortstops in the history of the game, at Maranville-level, but with a much better bat.
   11. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 09, 2005 at 10:28 PM (#1324036)
This was an easy ballot for me so I am posting it on Monday rather than my usual later time. Got the chance to go over both Arlett and Cravath and both recieved bumps though neither is on my ballot. I would like to thank David C. Jones for bringing up Arlett, we may have had a little death match over his ranking but he forced me to take a closer look at his MLE's and batting record. Foxx and Dihigo make my PHOM this year.

1. Jimmie Foxx (x, PHOM 1951) - Inner circle guy and probably the second best 1B ever.

2. Joe Cronin (2, PHOM 1950) - definite HOMer who has been slightly overlooked by the electorate for some reason. Nice peak and lots of career.

3. Hughie Jennings (3, PHOM 1938) - best peak on the board, sans Jimmie Foxx.

4. Mule Suttles (4, PHOM 1948) - Probably the NeL HR champ, definite HOMer.

5. John Beckwith (5, PHOM 1949) - Every post I have on him seems to be me picking on him in order to explain why I like Suttles more. This time I just want to say that the man could hit. Period.

6a. Jud Wilson
6. Wes Ferrell (7) - Wilson is next in line for my PHOM with Ferrell right behind him. Best player to have played the position of pitcher on the board.

7. Cupid Childs (8, PHOM 1939) - Nice peak and decent career for an 1890's middle infielder.

8a. Ted Lyons
8. Hugh Duffy (9) - Best of the 1890's OF trio because of his peak. I can see how someone would disagree with me though.

9a. Bill Terry
9. Dick Redding (10) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era. He is the last of my definite HOMers.

10. Clark Griffith (11) - Nice low DERA (3.90) and the best 19th century pitcher we have yet to elect. I would much rather see him elected than Welch.

11. Dizzy Dean (12) - At his best he was lights out.

12. Earl Averill (15) - A little bump as I warm up to a guy who had ten very good years.

13. Eppa Rixey (13) - The poor man's Ted Lyons.

14. Rube Waddell (14) - One crazy son of a ##### with a lot of K's and a great peak.

15. Dobie Moore (15) - The NeL's Hughie Jennings is back on the ballot where he belongs. Until next year.

16-20 GVH, Sisler, Bresnahan, Mendez, Roush
21-25 Willis, Mackey, browning, CPB, Cravath
26-30 Lundy, Monroe, Veach, Doyle, Shocker
31-35 Berger, Sewell, Johnson, Leach, Thomas
36-40 McGraw, Scales, Wilson, Chance, Traynor
41-45 Cicotte, Burns, Taylor, Schang, Klein
46-50 Ryan, Jones, Arlett, Cuyler, Grimes

Newbies
33. Bob Johnson - He doesn't look as good as Berger in my System. I am giving him very little MiL credit and it doesn't really affect his ranking.

48. Buzz Arlett - He isn't new but I wanted to explain his ranking so I am doing it here. I am not giving him pitching credit for the reasons stated on the Arlett thread. However, I did decide to give him credit for 1924, assuming that his 1923 was good enough to get him into the majors. He comes out as very similar to Kiki Cuyler and in fact I have no real reason to put him above Cuyler, but I did.

required disclosures:
Sewell - I don't see him as anything special, he was a big fish in a small pond and he wasn't a real MVP guy at his best.
Beckley - Never one of baseball's top 15 players
Welch - His era hides the fact that he simply wasn't that good of a pitcher
Bell - His lack of a real peak keeps him off my baloot but I can see him getting there in a backlog year.
Mackey - If the ballot only went to 22...
   12. yest Posted: May 10, 2005 at 12:49 AM (#1324555)
1951 ballot
Foxx and Klein make my pHoM this year

1. Jimmie Foxx (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
3. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
4. Joe Cronin A SHORTSTOP (made my personal HoM in 1950)
5. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
8. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (makes my personal HoM this year)
10. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
12. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
13. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
14. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
15. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
16. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
17. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg.
19. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20. Moose Suttles with I had some antidotal information on him especially quotes
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
28. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
30. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
31. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
32. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
John Beckwith I’m not enough confident enough in his case to put him higher then he is
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is in the 30’s


I’m going to be away from my computer for the next few weeks can someone please post my 1952 ballot for me
I’m assuming Foxx and Cronin are going in this year if not place Foxx 1st and Cronin in between Bell and Traynor
Ott and Dickey make my pHoM this year

1. Mel Ott (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. Bill Dickey (makes my personal HoM this year)
3. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
4. Josh Gibson
5. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
6. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
7. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
8. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
9. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
10. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
11. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
13. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
14. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
15. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg.
20. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21. Moose Suttles with I had some antidotal information on him especially quotes
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
28. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
29. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
30. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
32. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
33. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
John Beckwith I’m not enough confident enough in his case to put him higher then he is
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is in the 30’s
   13. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 10, 2005 at 12:56 AM (#1324598)
I’m going to be away from my computer for the next few weeks can someone please post my 1952 ballot for me

Will do, yest.
   14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 10, 2005 at 12:59 AM (#1324618)
yest:

You need to explain that vote for Gibson, especially when Sisler was three times less the hitter Gibson was.
   15. yest Posted: May 10, 2005 at 01:05 AM (#1324638)
I'm 99.9999999ext sure that Sisler belongs in the top 5 I'm around 90 percent sure a bought Gibson due to lack of stats and defensive quistions and I give negitive value to bad Defensive catching.
   16. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 10, 2005 at 01:25 AM (#1324703)
yest, I'm going to contune this conversation over at the Gibson thread.
   17. Rusty Priske Posted: May 10, 2005 at 12:35 PM (#1325789)
PHoM match my Top 2 again.

1. Jimmie Foxx (new)

Slam dunk pick. No one is close.

2. Joe Cronin (3,x,x)

I was happy to see him passed over last week, but he is still very deserving.

3. Mule Suttles (4,1,3)

Just waiting for a weaker year.

4. George Van Haltren (6,4,5)

Most underrated player on the ballot.

5. Eppa Rixey (5,2,4)

I'm not a big fan, but the figures don't lie.

6. John Beckwith (7,5,2)

I'm not as big a fan as some, but more than others. (How is that for a pointless comment?)

7. Jake Beckley (8,3,6)

Next to GVH, the most underrated.

8. Mickey Welch (9,7,7)

He continues hanging around.

9. Biz Mackey (10,13,x)

I suspect he will slide into oblivion before too long.

10. Cool Papa Bell (11,10,11)

I would like to put him higher, but can't justify it.

11. Tommy Leach (12,9,8)

See Mackey.

12. Edd Roush (13,8,9)

More overlooked than underrated.

13. George Sisler (14,14,15)

One of the more OVERRATED players on the ballot...but he is still good.

14. Hugh Duffy (15,12,13)

See Leach.

15. Sam Rice (x,11,14)

Pretty much filler...but still in my PHoM. :)

16-20. Ryan, Averill, Lundy, Powell, Grimes
21-25. Streeter, Griffith, Moore, Childs, Monroe
26-30. Mullane, DOyle, Sewell, White, Willis
   18. Daryn Posted: May 10, 2005 at 02:46 PM (#1325953)
1. Double X – 3 time MVP, 5 times the best hitter in the league. Inner circle.

2. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

3. Cronin – lots of doubles, one more career extra base hit than Beckley, one less than Chili Davis. I could have him as low 7th, but I have question marks about all of the candidates between 4 and 7. Only beats Beckley because of his position bonus.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

5. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment.
6. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind Rube Foster, Rogan and Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

8. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang (who I have in the low 20s).

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

10. George Sisler
11. Sam Rice – I like the hits. Sisler way out peaks Rice.

12. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here, ahead of Suttles and Beckwith. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

13. Mule Suttles – I’m getting more sold on Suttles and less sold on Beckwith. Suttles’ MLE WS are tough to overlook even if you apply a modest discount.

14. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

My personal in/out line is here.

15. Beckwith –The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 315 career WS, which is pretty much how I see him.

Other players of interest

16. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Warneke, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin.

22. Wes Ferrell

25. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.

30. Bob Johnson – he’s Bernie Williams offensively (without the postseason records) and if Bernie never played another game, he’d remain in the Hall of the Very Good.

31. Earl Averill

32. Buzz Arlett – can 350+ WS be a correct translation? Like GVH, he pitched some too.

42. Jennings – he’d be lower for me if you guys weren’t all so sure he was great. Peak alone is insufficient for me. For those who say he was the best in the game at his peak, was he really better than Delahanty?
   19. Howie Menckel Posted: May 10, 2005 at 07:21 PM (#1326521)
1951 ballot, our 54th (halfway home?)

My first in Jersey, and I hope the last with my crappy 1999 Gateway computer....

1. JIMMIE FOXX - Top 3 in OBP nine times from 1929-39; top 5 in slugging pct 10 times in that same span. 1st or 2nd in OPS eight times in that span. A Beast, indeed. Weird stat: stole 87 bases, but caught a ghastly 72 times.
2. JOE CRONIN - I note the similarities to Doyle's hitting career in the Cronin thread. That's OK, because I think Doyle is a little underrated as a candidate, and that there is a big gap between a terrible fielder and a good one. Nine VERY solid years and several other useful ones at a difficult position. Overrated generally, but still a HOMer.

3. MULE SUTTLES - No wavering from me on the Mule. I do significantly discount for his extremely favorable parks; not as convinced on the 'pitcher's park' data; I don't particularly discount for his defense; but I do factor in the likelihood of his OBP not being dazzling. That's 3 discounts out of 4 options, basically, yet I still see him as third-best on this ballot.
4. EPPA RIXEY - Climbs another spot this year as I sense that WWW I credit for him is significant to this 'career-minded' case. If only he had one huge year. Pretty baffled that Faber got in immediately, while Rixey sits on the fence.
5. JOHN BECKWITH - Passes two more longtime Howie choices this time as I more heavily factor in a SS-3B bonus. Now finally convinced he does belong.
6. CLARK GRIFFITH - Flops with Rixey, slips below Beckwith. 1890s are underrepresented. It's remarkable how much better Griffith's W-L was than the teams he pitched for.
7. GEORGE SISLER - Slides under Beckwith. I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
8. JAKE BECKLEY - Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? Not his fault that the ABCs clogged his position earlier in his career.
9. CUPID CHILDS - Climbs ahead of Jennings this year. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on these ballots.
10. COOL PAPA BELL - We're wise to realize the results don't match the rep, but great fielder-long career-decent hitter is quite valuable. Another Max Carey?
11. MICKEY WELCH - If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the old Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
12. PETE BROWNING - Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time. Have newer voters taken a sufficient look at him?
13. BOB JOHNSON - Always was fascinated by his unique "500+ PA all 13 years of his career" background. But never fully weighted his advantage in playing vs such crappy talent late in his career.
14. HUGHIE JENNINGS - Still sliding on my ballot. One solid season short of an "elect me" slot on my ballot. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
15. JOE SEWELL - First vote from me in a while. Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting.


JUST MISSED/NEW/TOP 10 RETURNEES
WES FERRELL - 117 ERA+ not dazzling, but it's misleading with the late-career bad IP. Significant hitting bonus, too. Kind of a weird player, too bad he didn't play some OF on his off-days.
EARL AVERILL - I think you need a 'major' amount of 'minors' credit to get him to the top 10. We'll see 30 guys like this before we're done, and none of 'em belong in the HOM. Is it 'Ah-verill,' or "AY-verill,' by the way?
EDD ROUSH - I have a problem with the games he missed in a lot of years, but his D and high level of play combined with career length gives Roush strong consdideration. Waiting for a weak year.
BIZ MACKEY - I see more Freehan or R Ferrell than anything else so far, and not sure he contributed as much as the countless other Negro League candidates we're mulling. Not ruled out yet.
DICK LUNDY - He really does present a problem for Sewell, doesn't he? I think Sewell needed to be a slightly better fielder and Lundy needs a tiny bit more evidence.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Seems very similar to Beckley, only he's an OF and not a 1B. Pitching helps, not quite enough.
TOMMY LEACH - The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'
HARLOND CLIFT - Had a HOM path 'til age 30, but you gotta keep it going.
   20. OCF Posted: May 10, 2005 at 08:23 PM (#1326660)
2. JOE CRONIN - I note the similarities to Doyle's hitting career in the Cronin thread.

In my adjusted RCAA offensive system, I have Doyle distinctly ahead of Cronin. There are three "buts" attached to that:
1. It's a peak-friendly system, and Doyle's advantage over Cronin is in peak. Cronin makes a little of it back up on career length.
2. There's no league-strength adjustment in that. As we know, the strength of the NL in Doyle's time is an issue.
3. As Howie mentioned, defense.

Still - as the #1 FOLD (it's my biggest eccentricity at the moment), I appreciate Howie's mention.
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: May 10, 2005 at 10:17 PM (#1326940)
1951--the second ML season of my young life.

1. Jimmie Foxx (new, PHoM 1951). Inner circle.

2. Joe Cronin (3-x, PHoM 1951). Not inner circle, but obvious HoMer. Peak virtually identical to Dobie Moore.

3. Hughie Jennings (4 last year-2-2, PHoM 1927). It's all been said.

4. George Sisler (5-3-5, PHoM 1938). Even without extra credit for those great years as a Wolverine!

5. Dobie Moore (6-4-3, PHoM 1942). Yes, I'm partial to SSs, because that is where the best all-around athletes have often ended up.

6. Mule Suttles (7-8-6). PHoM the next backlog year, along with Teddy Lyons.

7. Rube Waddell (8-5-7, PHoM 1932). Prime ERA+ 152.

8. Tommy Bond (9-11-8, PHoM 1929). Huge value even after giving half of it to his fielders.

9. Edd Roush (11-6-9). PHoM someday.

10. Ed Williamson (13-x-12, PHoM 1924). Keep trying to dump him but still the best 3B available. Did it all.

11. Larry Doyle (x-12-11). Unstable because every now and then I decide that Childs and Monroe are just as good, but I like having at least one 2B on the ballot and for now it's Larry.

12. Cool Papa Bell (15-15-15). Numbers don't do it for me, but reputation does.

13. Chuck Klein (12-10-new). As Bill James said, "There's just too much."

14. Addie Joss (14-13-x).
15. John Beckwith (x, first time since 1947). The borderline of the borderline.

Dropped off: Dick Lundy (10, 7, 10). OPS+ 94 or 122?

Close: 16-20. Cravath (new for me), Lundy, Dean, Averill, Sewell.
21-25. Gomez, Bresnahan, Browning, Cicotte, Traynor.

Required: Rixey, Ferrell and Mackey all in the 30-40 range. Griffith was in the top 10 year before last, what happened? He's 26th on my list.
   22. sunnyday2 Posted: May 10, 2005 at 10:26 PM (#1326960)
Oh, and among the newbies:

Bob Johnson--HOVG, in the 35-40-45 range.

Clift, Derringer, Camilli, Ferrell all HOG, in the 90-110 range?

Bobby Estalella is a very tantalizing talent. I see him as almost Minnie Minoso. Look at his year in Minneapolis in 1940 (age 29), Bobby Estalella thread. At 80 percent as good as Minoso but for about 5 percent longer (than Minnie's actual, documented ML career, not whatever you add for other play), I see him as about a 237 WS player. That makes him the #3 newbie with more WS than Ferrell or Camilli or Clift or Derringer or Dom DiMaggio or Bob Lemon or George Kell and 5 fewer than Ralph Kiner.
   23. Chris Cobb Posted: May 11, 2005 at 01:45 PM (#1328400)
1951 Ballot

A slow year by recent standards: Foxx leads the ballot, Bob Johnson just breaks the top 50. A number of other good players became eligible this year, but none of them seem to have a serious case for the HoM.

1. Jimmy Foxx (n/e). Mighty powerful. I have him at about 15 all-time through 1951, but he’ll slip two places next year when Ott and Gibson become eligible.
2. John Beckwith (3). Remains on the cusp of election. He’s been under consideration for a decade now. We can now compare his MLEs to numerous other NeL greats to see that, unless the raw statistics are flawed, he was definitely among the top hitters of his generation. The reports of his bad character have been carefully examined and debunked on several points. His defense has been carefully examined as well, with the available statistics suggesting that he was at least an adequate defender on the left side of the infield. Further examination of MLEs from the late 1920s and early 1930s raises the possibility that the current MLEs underrate Beckwith somewhat, so I’m going to slot him just ahead of Cronin.
3. Joe Cronin (4). A better fielder than Beckwith; not as good a hitter, similar career length. They’re very close, both around #10 at their positions (taking Beckwith as a 3rd baseman) all time. Looks like he’ll be elected this year, and that’s ok.
4. Clark Griffith (5). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length. Also the best pitching post-1893 candidate according to Pennants Added. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
5. Hughie Jennings (6). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well. jimd’s recent comments on Jennings’ fielding value seem right to me.
6. Eppa Rixey (7). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the late 1950s, though if he turns out to be better than Ruffing, election could come sooner than that.
7. Mule Suttles (8). Still needs revised win shares, but further examination of MLEs moves him past Ferrell in my rankings.
8. Wes Ferrell (9). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM.
9. George Van Haltren (10). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet. Van Haltren was in an “elect-me” spot on my 1931 and 1932 ballots. I’ve lowered my view of outfielders in general since then, which caused Jennings to pass him, but everyone from Van Haltren up clearly merits eventual enshrinement, in my view.
10. Edd Roush (11). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
11. Tommy Leach (12) Finally getting his due. Won’t have a chance at election until the 1960s, but it looks like he’s more firmly on the radar now.
12. Biz Mackey (13). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer, but not good enough to leap ahead of the backlog. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
13. George Sisler (14). Nice peak. Although I don’t use WARP formally in my system, the revision of his value there makes me feel more confident about keeping him on my ballot.
14. Larry Doyle (15). Best of an over-looked teens group of middle-tier stars.
15. Burleigh Grimes (16). Back on the ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey.


Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot.
Earl Averill. Just off the ballot at 16. He’ll probably slip down to about 20-22 in my rankings by the mid-1950s and then begin to rise up again. I rather hope he is eventually elected, but there are several better centerfielders who need to go first, namely Van Haltren, Edd Roush, and half of Tommy Leach.
   24. Chris Cobb Posted: May 11, 2005 at 01:47 PM (#1328403)
1951 Off-Ballot

16. Earl Averill (17). Exercising a little caution on the 1930s has dropped Averill off the ballot. I’m with Joe D. in that there are 22 candidates I’d really like to be voting for, and I think the next 25 after that all have some decent arguments to be in the HoM rather than the Hall of Very Good. I’ll be very interested to see who the HoM starts electing once we have caught up to the present and no longer have our membership numbers tied to Cooperstown’s. It’s pleasant to think that we could honor _more_ players than they do and still have a much better set of honorees . . .
17. Jose Mendez. (18) The player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention.
18. Buzz Arlett. (19) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
19. Gavvy Cravath. (20) Revised minor league MLEs move him from out of the running to in the running, though still off ballot. My 15-25 range is now full of 1910s stars who are just a little bit short by current standards, but who may go in later.
20. Cool Papa Bell (21). New consideration of MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville.
21. Rabbit Maranville. (22) His defensive value and his career length deserve more respect. Wish I could get him onto my ballot.
22. Spotswood Poles . (23) Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
23. Dick Redding . (24) Ditto. I don’t buy gadfly’s claims that he would easily have been a 300-game winner, but I’d like to see a defense of this claim that really goes into Redding’s record, as we have it now. We need a fresh look at the black players who starred before the Negro National League began in 1920.
24. Carl Mays . (25) Wes Ferrell lite. A small all-around athlete bonus.moves him up, relative to the players around him, this year.
25. Urban Shocker. (26) Someday I’ll take up his cause.
26. Mickey Welch. (27) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again.
27. Hugh Duffy. (28) Not quite enough career for an outfielder to make the ballot.
28. Rube Waddell
29. Jimmy Ryan
30. Roger Bresnahan
31. Wally Schang
32. Cupid Childs
33. George Scales
34. Dobie Moore
35. Ben Taylor
36. Jake Beckley
37. Joe Sewell
38. Dick Lundy
39. Waite Hoyt
40. Herman Long
41. Wilbur Cooper
42. Lave Cross
43. Kiki Cuyler
44. Harry Hooper
45. Bobby Veach
46. Fielder Jones
47. Dolf Luque
48. John McGraw
49. Tommy Bond
50. Bob Johnson (n/e). Having adjusted his win shares for his teams’ pythagorean shortfalls and for WWII and having studied his WARP record and his PCL record, I see him as just below Kiki Cuyler among his immediate contemporaries, and more significantly behind Earl Averill, though the gap between Johnson and Averill is not huge. The matter of minor-league credit is problematic, but I see Averill’s peak advantages as outweighing Johnson’s career-value advantage even in WARP1. I am not trusting WARP3 on this comparison. I think that Johnson as a RF is benefiting disproportionately in the adjustment of fielding value to an “all-time” context, and any system of measuring competition quality that doesn’t see 1945 as markedly worse in comparison to its “all-time standard” than the AL of the late 1920s fails to win my trust. Once the Pythagorean issue is dealt with in win shares, its findings are very close to WARP1’s in this case. To see Johnson as a contending candidate, it seems to me that one must either a) give him significant minor-league credit or b) trust WARP3. Both of those seem to me to be dubious propositions. Johnson looks to me like a very solid member of the Hall of Very Good outfield, along with Cuyler and Hooper and Fielder Jones and Veach and George J. Burns and Mike Tiernan. I have a pang of conscience about putting Charley Jones in this group—he probably belongs up with Ryan and Duffy, unless they belong down here, too—but I think his core supporters are overrating him.
51. George J. Burns
52. Charley Jones
53. Bruce Petway
54. Bill Monroe
55. Dizzy Dean
56. Babe Adams
57. Mike Tiernan
58. Sam Rice
59. Dave Bancroft
60. Frank Chance
61. Tony Mullane
62. Ed Konetchy
63. Addie Joss
64. Wally Berger
   25. TomH Posted: May 11, 2005 at 02:30 PM (#1328482)
"50. Bob Johnson
I am not trusting WARP3 on this comparison.... any system of measuring competition quality that doesn’t see 1945 as markedly worse in comparison to its “all-time standard” than the AL of the late 1920s fails to win my trust. "
--
Chris, not sure I follow. WARP does discount 1945 more than 1929 AL. Even if you wish to clip 1 or 2 more 'wins' (any more would be, IMHO, totally unjustified) off Johnson's WARP for 1945, he still is better than Averill unless you really ramp up Averill MinL ##s and not Johnson's.
I see them as very similar. Johnson slightly better stick, Averill more important position.
   26. Chris Cobb Posted: May 11, 2005 at 03:36 PM (#1328605)
Chris, not sure I follow. WARP does discount 1945 more than 1929 AL.

Part of the confusion is a typo: That should be 1944, not 1945.
W1-3 Averill 1929 10.2 - 8.1
W1-3 Johnson 1944 10.7 - 8.9

And I didn't even go into the 1920s NL
W1-3 Johnson 1945 7.4-5.4
W1-3 Cuyler 1926 8.6-6.4

I'm too dubious about the validity of these adjustments to make them the basis my ranking of these players against one another. Sure, I could dock Johnson another win or two for 1944-45, but the fact is I can't place musch stock in the competition adjustments that affect Averill and Cuyler over many seasons.

I give Averill one season of credit for minor-league play, Johnson no seasons of credit. That moves Averill ahead on career value, and he was already ahead on peak and on rate stats. If I gave no MLE credit to either player, Averill would still rank ahead, but by a lesser margin.

They are similar players. Only Cool Papa Bell and Bill Terry fall between them in my rankings for the 1930s right now. However, both the teens and twenties are croweded with players whose value appears to fall between Averill and Johnson, so although the two are close in value, 33 players crowd between them. That's an unusually wide spread, but given where we are in baseball history, one would expect that a 3-player separation this far down in the rankings within a single decade would mean at least a fifteen-player separation overall.
   27. SWW Posted: May 11, 2005 at 03:43 PM (#1328621)
Been traveling, so not much in the way of changes this year. By the way, if anyone wants my seat at the Polo Grounds for the playoff game between the Dodgers and Giants, you’re welcome to it. I doubt it’ll be much of a game.

1951 Ballot
1)James Emory Foxx – “Double X”
Although best known for his stalwart management of the Rockford Peaches, this legendary...wait. That’s not right. Ah, here we go. A truly outstanding first baseman. Also, a Triple Crown winner from Philadelphia with a little more durability.
2)Joseph Edward Cronin
A little surprised to see him again. But no matter. Consistently the best shortstop of his day. Six Top 10 WS finishes.
3)George Suttles – “Mule”
I promised to factor in a comparison between Suttles and Sisler. Mule came out ahead. Durability and longer prime give him the edge.
4)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
I can’t bring myself to punish him for the strange shape of his career. His highs are exceptional, and his lows are not so low as to be invisible, like Jennings or Hack Wilson.
5)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I notice I’m all alone up here now. Sigh. I still find his overall career is better than his closest competitors. So here he will stay.
6)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
I continue to suspect that my placement for Bell is low. As someone who gives much credence to career, the projected Win Shares impress me. Even the adjusted Win Shares projections impress me. I find him well ahead of the glut.
7)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Since he debuted on my ballot, his fortune has been tied to that of Beckley, owing to their similar WS primes and career. Given their different positions and eras, I should probably rethink this approach.
8)Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
Kelly from SD’s analysis of Beckley’s performance vs. his contemporaries is devastating, even to someone like me who places a lot of value in a lengthy, Win Share-rich career. I am not prepared to move him or Rice yet, but the matter does deserve further consideration.
9)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. And I’ll be rhyming his named with “jewel” until someone decides to correct me. Cronin’s still here to make him look bad.
10)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
I continue to gain respect for Rixey’s career. Since I tend toward career stats, I figure my vote ought to reflect that.
11)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
Tops my list of eligible catchers, although that will certainly change next year. I’m giving a lot of credence to peer and expert rankings here, so your mileage may vary.
12)Howard Earl Averill
13)Edd J Roush
Quite similar, which may be why they’re right next to each other in Bill James’ ranking of right fielders. I’m giving Averill a slight edge for a tiny-bit-better prime.
14)Hugh Duffy
In the ever-changing world of evaluating the numbers, I’m no longer convinced that such his peak should earn him placement over the more career-oriented Averill and Duffy.
15)John Beckwith
Told you he’d be back. I am still influenced by anecdotal evidence, which explains his low ranking here, compared to other voters. Probably time to print off some discussion pages again.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
Love his peaks. Hate the shortness of his career. I like him more as a candidate than Dizzy Dean, who has outstanding peak. I like Grimes and Rixey, so I guess that tells you where I stand on Wes.
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
Hack Wilson has a similar career arc, with a better career, and he’s not here. Basically, the peak is outstanding, but not so much so that it overshadows the fact that the peak is the entire career. Five-year prime is over 70% of career. Ouch.
   28. TomH Posted: May 11, 2005 at 04:05 PM (#1328680)
"I give Averill one season of credit for minor-league play. That moves Averill ahead on career value, and he was already ahead on peak and on rate stats. "
--
Thanks, Chris. Agreed that smal diffs can move guys quickly from 20 to 50 on this ballot!Although I think the reason Averill wins on rate stats is that WS IMO over-rewards 'average' CF play.
   29. ronw Posted: May 11, 2005 at 04:16 PM (#1328707)
By the way, if anyone wants my seat at the Polo Grounds for the playoff game between the Dodgers and Giants, you’re welcome to it. I doubt it’ll be much of a game.

Hey, my money is on those young Phillies to repeat in '51. They may even take the tottering Yanks this year, since DiMaggio's about done, and there's no way that Mantle kid will be able to replace Joltin' Joe.

The Dodgers had a nice run through the 40's, but its just downhill from here for them.

As for the Giants? Its not like they will get a new great outfielder all of a sudden.
   30. Chris Cobb Posted: May 11, 2005 at 05:09 PM (#1328887)
Although I think the reason Averill wins on rate stats is that WS IMO over-rewards 'average' CF play.

WARP1 also favors Averill on career rate: I haven't done a "peak rate" comparison in WARP, though, which is the rate stat I actually plug into my system. Here also, the difference in fielding replacement level between cf and rf may be much of the distance between them.

Placing Bob Johnson was one of the most difficult decisions I've had to make in a while, and he'll probably move around a bit more until I've really studied all of the 1930s star outfielders. Medwick hasn't had his turn under the microscope yet.
   31. Jeff M Posted: May 11, 2005 at 09:03 PM (#1330508)
1951 Ballot

John, I'm going to e-mail you my 1952 ballot and would appreciate you posting it when the time comes. Thanks.

1. Foxx, Jimmie – Didn’t realize what a fine fielder he was at 1b.

2. Cronin, Joe – I was skeptical about Cronin, because his normalized traditional rate and counting stats are not particularly impressive. But he is similar to a number of HOF and HOM shortstops, has lots of grey ink for a SS, was a good fielder and a frequent all-star and is pushing 350 adjWS. He’s a HoMer.

3. Mackey, Biz – Significant revision of my NeL methods moved him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

4. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

5. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe. I also see him better than the other NeL middle infielders that are eligible. I’ve got them ranked: Monroe [moderate gap] Beckwith [small gap] Lundy [moderate gap] Moore [big gap] Scales [small gap] DeMoss [small gap] Allen.

6. Suttles, Mule -- Originally I was afraid I had him too high based on long-ball feats, but on re-evaluation, I’ve had him about right. I flip-flopped he and Monroe, but otherwise, his ranking is unchanged. I rate him lower than an average defensive player. Riley basically says he caught everything he could reach, but implies strongly that he could not reach very much. In any event, he was probably a better hitter than Sisler, so I’ll put him a little ahead.

7. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

8. Beckwith, John – Reevaluation of NeL players dropped him a few slots. I’ve now got him at roughly 300 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is still a good number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

9. Waddell, Rube – Waddell still lives here. RSI shed some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

10. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a much bigger factor for an outfielder.

11. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety.

12. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition.

13. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, but was a peak performer and could swing the bat.

14. Lundy, Dick – Dropped a fair amount with my NeL re-evaluations. I had him in the top 5 a few times. Hard to tell where he belongs, but he was a great defensive shortstop and better than average hitter for a long time.

15. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

Required Disclosures:

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #22 in my system, behind Bobby Veach (but really behind Max Carey) and ahead of Larry Doyle, Tommy Leach and Joe Sewell (but really just ahead of Goose Goslin). I need more brilliance than he provided.

Averill, Earl – Another player whose numbers are inflated by the high run environment in which he played, and when corrected, look just very good. He’s #42 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan and ahead of Kiki Cuyler.

Jennings, Hughie – Just didn’t excel for a long enough period to warrant election. He’s #44 in my system, behind Kiki Cuyler (but really behind Al Spalding) and ahead of Rabbit Maranville.
   32. Sean Gilman Posted: May 12, 2005 at 01:32 AM (#1331184)
1951

1. Jimmie Foxx (-)--He’s good.

2. Joe Cronin (2)--Him too.

3. Pete Browning (4)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. (1927)

4. Mule Suttles (5)--Trails Browning and Jones on peak, but more career value than either of them. (1949)

5. John Beckwith (6)--Another high peak, non-conventional major league player.

6. Charley Jones (7)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

7. Hughie Jennings (8)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

8. Cupid Childs (9)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

9. Tommy Leach (10)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

10. Clark Griffith (11)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

11. Larry Doyle (12)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

12. George Sisler (13)--Comparison with Terry convinces me I was underrating him. New PA numbers inspires a bump for him and Bell above Sewell and Williamson.

13. Cool Papa Bell (14)--Long career, moderate peak. Good comp with Rixey, actually, which is kinda weird.

14. Eppa Rixey (22)--Big jump this year as I realize I wasn’t giving him enough war credit.

15. Joe Sewell (15)--Was in danger of either being elected or becoming underrated. He became underrated.

16. Ed Williamson (16)
17. Carl Mays (17)
18. Wes Ferrell (18)
19. Jose Mendez (19)
20. Dave Bancroft (20)
21. Roger Bresnahan (21)
22. Dick Redding (23)
23. Hugh Duffy (24)
24. George Van Haltren (25)
25. Edd Roush (26)
   33. Adam Schafer Posted: May 12, 2005 at 06:12 AM (#1331485)
Even with my love of catchers, and a positional bonus, Rick Ferrell can't come close to the ballot. Camilli and Cucinello were always great to me in answering questions and filling autograph requests. I'm glad we took the time to remember them, but they aren't anywhere close to my ballot either. I had a heck of a time trying to decided what to do with Bob Johnson. I've had him as high as 6th and as low as 27th on my ballot. For now I have him slotted lower but continue to look at him and make sure I'm comfortable with his current rank on my ballot.

1. Jimmie Foxx (n/a) -

2. Joe Cronin (3) - Takes the #2 spot this year with the election of Dihigio. Should be a shoo-in this year behind Foxx.

3. Mickey Welch (4) - Mickey continues to hang out at the top of my ballot. No way to justify giving him an elect me spot though. To many great players hitting the ballot each year.

4. Wes Ferrell (5) - Hard to put him here without the career that I'd normally love to see, but his peak was good and just barely lasted long enough for me to rank him this high.

5. Burleigh Grimes (6) - Grimes just won't leave the top of my ballot. I can't say that it bothers me either.

6. Biz Mackey (7) - I love catchers. He's not Santop or Gibson, but he's HOM material in my book. He did reaffirm for me that Schang should be on my ballot.

7. Mule Suttles (8) - I like Mule, but can't put him ahead of Mackey.

8. Sam Rice (9) - This is the type of consistency that I love. Simply the type of player that I love. Consistency is meritable in my eyes.

9. Pie Traynor (10) - One of the best 3b ever

10. Earl Averill (11) - Consistency is key for me...what he could have done had he been in the majors sooner...I do give him some (minimal) minor league credit.

11. Eppa Rixey (12) -I've decided that Grimes is more deserving of the word "Merit" by my definition.

12. George Sisler (13) - I still believe he should be in the HOM. Even his "bad" years were pretty darn good.

13. Clark Griffith (14) - Same old story for Clark

14. Jake Beckley (15) - Not far off from Sisler.

15. Wally Schang (17) - I welcome him back to the spot on my ballot that actually counts. Lots of career value for a catcher. I really wish I could justify having him higher right now. A definate HOM'er in my opinion. Just too many other good players on the ballot right now.

16. Rube Waddell (16) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

17. Joe Sewell (18) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out. Same problem as Schang at the moment.

18. John Beckwith (19) - Just off of the ballot, but no fault of his own. He'll be back on the ballot again soon enough.

19. Cool Papa Bell (20) -

20. George Van Haltren (21) - At the bottom of my PHOM list, but on it still the same.

21. Bob Johnson (N/a) - This is the most comfortable spot that I have for him at the moment. He may move up on the ballot (possible) or down on the ballot (more possible).
   34. TomH Posted: May 12, 2005 at 11:43 AM (#1331631)
1951 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

I bumped up the pitchers a bit this week; they are still only 3 of my 15.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

at least the first two spots on the ballot are easy....

1-Jimmy Foxx {new}
Overrated by general public because of the gaudy 1930s offensive environ: bb-ref has the league/park average OBA at .362 for Jimmy’s career. Still, pretty clearly the #2 first sacker ever, and overall #35 on my ever-tweaking all-time list.
2-Joe Cronin (2) [3]
Almost Barry Larkin. Shortstops with OPS of 850s don’t grow on trees.
3-Clark Griffith (4) [12]
Vastly, vastly underrated by conventional stats. Great post-season performances too.
4-Mule Suttles (3) [4]
His MLEs look very good, his career was long, and his rep among those who have previously written much about NeLers was great as well.
5-Wes Ferrell (6) [8]
Career ERA of 4.04 doesn’t seem impressive...until you compare it to the league/park average ERA of 4.72. When you add in the bat and huge seasons, he’s a very viable candidate.
6-Joe Sewell (5) [15]
He may not have any one stat that defines him, but overall he won lots of ballgames for his team. What is there NOT to like about him? He hit great for a shortstop, for any time period, not just his. He fielded great too. Only 9 SS in MLB history have more career WS and more WS/PA than Sewell.
7-George Van Haltren (9) [15]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.
8-Cool Papa Bell (10) [14]
If I envision the basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability of a Paul Blair with afterburners, Bell comes out as a HoMer, even with a mediocre bat. And that’s what his rep makes him out to be.
9-John McGraw (8) [FORTY TWO!?!]
The peak of Hughie Jennings, with a longer prime. Outstanding RCAP. Mugsy will keep me from ever being the highest consensus guy I guess!
10-Biz Mackey (11) [9]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here, above Roger B, with whom he looks comparable if you end Mackey’s career in 1932. Too many people thought Mackey was too good to leave him off my ballot.
11-John Beckwith (12) [5]
He looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew. But: if I were a GM and had to draft one guy at a young age to play his career (I hope) on my team, I would be wary enough to rank him here, instead of the 5-10 spots higher that he would be in a sterile table game environment.
12-Earl Averill (13) [6]
Add in a bit of credit for his PCL years, and he’s on my ballot. Compared to GVH, hit a bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch.
13-Indian Bob Johnson {new}
Hitter! Calling all friends of Pete Browning: this guy could slug as well, fielded better, and had a longer career. Not even close.
14-Eppa Rixey (off) [7]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in front of a fairly good defensive team in possibly the weaker league. Would be elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+?
15-Cupid Childs (14) [24]
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay too. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.

Others who would appear on a 25-man ballot:
Roger Bresnahan (15, bumped off this year)
Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played. Catcher bonus makes him a viable candidate.
Pie Traynor …Fine player, fine rep.
George Sisler ...Equal of Chance and Beckley, although they sure are different!
Rube Waddell ...Great Kos, but too many UER and other HoM pitchers from his era.
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor minus the good rep.
Jake Beckley ...Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM, though.
Frank Chance ...More Win Shares per game than Henry Aaron! Highest WS/yr among any ballot-eligible player by a large margin (>2 WS/yr)! Lots and lots of positive intangibles. Still not quite enough with such a brief career.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Wally Schang …hangin close by

Gavy Cravath … similar to Browning or H Wilson or C Jones. Unless you sttrrrreeeeettttch his Minors-to-MLB career a lot.
   35. Rick A. Posted: May 12, 2005 at 12:30 PM (#1331663)
PHOM
Jimmie Foxx
Martin Dihigo

1951 Ballot
1.Jimmie Foxx – Elected PHOM in 1951
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
3.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
4.Joe Cronin – Solid HOMer. Elected PHOM in 1950.
5.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me.
6.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
7.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
8.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Elected PHOM.in 1945.
9.Burleigh Grimes – Jumps up when I give a big years bonus. Higher peak than Rixey.
10.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak. Elected PHOM in 1940
11.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
12.Mule Suttles – Not as high a peak as Beckwith, but a better career.
13.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
14.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position.
15.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.

New Candidates
Harlond Clift OK candidate, below Traynor, Nash and Meyerle on my ballot
Dolph Camilli Closer to Jim Bottomley than a HOMer
Bob Johnson Don't see it. Maybe I'm underrating him, but he seems like a close match to Heinie Manush to me.
Paul Derringer Workhorse. Not enough of either peak or career, however. Herb Pennock lite.
Lon Warneke Yes, I know he's not a new candidate, but I finally got a chance to evaluate him in my system. Good peak value, but not as good as Dean or Waddell.

Required Disclosures
Wow, only one required disclosure this week, and that one is a just-missed-the-ballot candidate.
Earl Averill Just misses my ballot.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Averill, Mendez, Duffy, Redding, Bell
21-25 Roush, Schang, Leach, Dean, Bresnahan
26-30 Sisler, Cooper, McGraw, Williamson, Waddell
31-35 Mays, Poles, Griffith, Tiernan, Van Haltren
36-40 Lundy, Taylor, Dunlap, Doyle, Sewell
41-45 Traynor, Chance, Burns, McCormick, Bancroft
46-50 Griffin, F. Jones, Wilson, Bond, Berger
   36. TomH Posted: May 12, 2005 at 01:30 PM (#1331724)
oops, forgot one required disclosure, altho y'all smart guys could figure it out for the ballot discussion thread :)
Jennings - not one of the top 25 careers eligible, especially if you discount WARP's assessment of his fielding a little.
   37. Dolf Lucky Posted: May 12, 2005 at 05:17 PM (#1332123)
1 (-)Jimmie Foxx--Top career, peak, and prime on the board.

2 (3)Joe Cronin--Not a bad "leftover". Easily qualifies for induction.

3 (4)Chuck Klein--Much better peak than anyone in the OF glut. Plus he was dominant in Earl Weaver Baseball.

4 (6)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

5 (7)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

6 (5)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

7 (8)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

8 (13)Roger Bresnahan--The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing).

9 (9)Joe Sewell
10 (10)John Beckwith--Due to defensive concerns, I'd have a hard time putting him above Sewell. However, a reconsideration of him means he'll probably be on the ballot for awhile.

11 (-)Biz Mackey--Definitely took a huge fall from where I expected him to be. Based on the evidence coming out, I can't see Mackie rating above Bresnahan.

12 (12)Mule Suttles--I don't see him ranking higher than Beckwith. I promise to investigate him further in the future.

13 (11)Hughie Jennings--I guess I was having trouble reconciling the fact that I had Dizzy Dean on the ballot, but not Jennings. For now the solution is to boost Jennings on to the ballot again.

14 (-)Duke Farrell
15 (-)Donie Bush--In the interest of ballot fragmentation...

Dropping out: Burleigh Grimes, Urban Shocker

Top 10 omission: Earl Averill isn't too far off the ballot, somewhere in the 16-25 range. I see him as the 4th best OF currenty available. Eppa Rixey lacks the requisite peak to ever make the ballot.
   38. OCF Posted: May 12, 2005 at 05:46 PM (#1332184)
14 (-)Duke Farrell
15 (-)Donie Bush--In the interest of ballot fragmentation...


You'll have to do more than that if you want to drive your consensus score down to yest's level. ;)
   39. sunnyday2 Posted: May 12, 2005 at 06:15 PM (#1332252)
Voters who like to acknowledge newbies at the bottom of your ballot: Other than Indian Bob Johnson, Caribbean Bobby Estalella is the best of the bunch. Don't let those paltry WARP and WS totals fool you. He could easily have been a big leaguer throughout, and then his numbers would look a lot like Indian Bob's.

In 110 G and 340 ABs in 1935-36-39 his OPS+ was about 130. In 1940 at Minneapolis (age 29) he hit .341 with 36 2B, 32 HR, 121 RBI, 132 BB, 147 R in 147 G.

Yet it took a serious player shortage to get him a real shot in '42-'45 when he posted OPS+ of 130, 123, 125, 142 at ages 31-34. Give him a WWII discount, then imagine he had been given that same chance at ages 26-30 and I guess he goes 130, 123, 125, 142 (in the late '30s) and sans adjustment period does even better in the '40s.

All those years he wasn't in the MLs or Minneapolis, he was active in lower MiLs and Cuba, too.

Tote it all up and he is Indian Bob Johnson--well, not quite. Call it a 127 career OPS+, which is exactly what he did, and OK, he's only Minnie Minoso.

Bill James says, "This, then, was clearly a player who got a raw deal from baseball, and I always wondered what the story behind the story was. It turns out, he was actually a black guy--not very black, but black enough to retard his career.... He was a Cuban star, and his skin tone was such that the Senators...were skating on thin ice. The unwritten rule was that you could play Cubans...but only if they were light enough to pass for white guys. Estalella...looked more like Jackie Robinson than Richie Ashburn.... Somehow he slipped past the bouncer and got a chance to play. But not much of a chance."
   40. ronw Posted: May 12, 2005 at 06:58 PM (#1332324)
One more Estalella-Bob Johnson tidbit. They were traded for each other late in their careers.

From Baseball Library:

March 20, 1943: LF Bob Johnson, a star for the Athletics since 1933, is traded to the Senators for 3B Bob Estalella and Jimmy Pofahl. Johnson has led the A's in RBIs in each of the last seven seasons: no team has ever traded a slugger with that mark.
   41. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 12, 2005 at 10:21 PM (#1332625)
1951 BALLOT
The Doctor is in the house, albeit later than usual, and he’s got the prescription for the too-many-CFs-blues….

1. Jimmie Foxx: A better ballplayer than Redd Foxx.

2. Joe Cronin: Number two last week, number two this week. I still like a middle infielder who can pound the ball and has a reasonably long career.

3. Mule Suttles: Second-best firstbaseman on this ballot. He’ll get in by and by.

4. John Beckwith: Big middle infielder/third-baseman who can mash. The career looks short, thus he’s after Suttles, but I think our projections are underselling his peak.

5a) Martin Dihigo

5. Hugh Duffy: Unlike some CFs, this guy’s for real. WARP1 shows his fielding as worth more than 35 runs above average. That’s about ten runs better than heavy vote getters like Averill and more again better than candidates like Roush.

6. Gavy Cravath: Count me among the believers. I credit him with 1907 plus the AA years. A late bloomer? Not really, just a fairly typical career pattern obfuscated by forces out of his control.

7. George Van Haltren: He’s slipping a bit in my estimation as I continue to consider the meaning of WS unquenchable lust for centerfielders, but right now he remains firmly ensconced at number seven.

8. George J. Burns: Big peak. Big prime. Enough career.

9. Jose Mendez: If the size of a man’s peak can be judged by the length of his toes, Mendez wore a size 17. Of course he also had just enough shoulder seasons to be a real candidate as well.

10. Spots Poles: How is it that I was the ONLY poster who voted for this guy last week? I don’t mean to be aggressive, but what’s Cool Pappy Bell got that this guy doesn’t? To answer my own question, four things: a memorable name; lots of legendary stories about light switches; a better-documented career; a longer career. But if you look at Bell and Poles side-by-side those are Bell’s only advantages, and Poles has got it all over C.P. in the peak/prime battle of the bands. I guess as the LAOFOSP (lastest and onliest friend of Spots Poles) I should be getting a little more animated about this, but I have to say that I just don’t get it.

11. Wes Ferrell: The more I think about it, the more likely it seems that much of my overrating of CF has to do with WS overrating CF. So if that’s true, then some change gotta’ come. Here’s the start of it: Ferrell moves up.

11a)Ted Lyons

12. Eppa Rixey: Sure won lots of games. Sure pitched at a good level for a long time. Sure thing he’ll get into the HOM. Someday, sure.

13. Earl Averill: He gets a year of MiL credit from me. Defense was good but not Duffyesque in a career of similar length.

14. Hughie Jennings

15. Dobie Moore: Edd Roush and Tommy Leach are casualties of my rethinking of CFs. Jennings and Moore climb back on board, necessarily in that order unless new data surfaces to change my mind on Moore’s placement. Roush, Leach, Monroe, and Childs form the next group after the on-ballot bonus round.

As for Biz Mackey, call me Biz Snarky, but I’m not seeing it. I have him just ahead of Bresnahan who is off in the 20s or 30s somewhere.

Bob Johnson? I don’t really understand where the divergence of WARP/WS opinion in coming from, but I think he’s HOVG material. I have not given him any MiL credit, but I have discounted his war years by 10% (as I have all players active in the league at that time).

Curt Davis is a late bloomer which is too bad for his HOM case.

Harlond Clift: Baby, I loved you opposite Pie Traynor in Bill Kills Volume I, but you lack enough career and peak to be on my list.
   42. Rob_Wood Posted: May 13, 2005 at 04:11 AM (#1333087)
My 1951 ballot:

1. Jimmie Foxx - all time great
2. Joe Cronin - great SS at his best
3. Tommy Bridges - with WWII and PCL credit
4. Jake Beckley - still standing!
5. Mule Suttles - negro slugger
6. George Van Haltren - great 90s player
7. John Beckwith - really good negro infielder
8. Earl Averill - CF with PCL credit
9. Bob Johnson - LF definitely HOM material
10. Eppa Rixey - very good P for a long time
11. Joe Sewell - very good shortstop
12. Edd Roush - very good centerfielder
13. George Sisler - value is non-linear
14. Cool Papa Bell - overlooked negro star
15. Cupid Childs - great 90's 2B back on my ballot

Group top tenners I am not voting for include Hughie Jennings (whom I vote for occasionally), Wes Ferrell (whom I will likely never vote for), and Biz Mackey (ditto).
   43. OCF Posted: May 13, 2005 at 05:03 AM (#1333107)
Rob, I can see you're only giving yourself 4-6 words per player to make your comments one-liners. It's just that I don't think I would have used the word "overlooked" as one of the words to apply to Cool Papa Bell. If Bell is "overlooked", what's Beckwith?
   44. Mike Webber Posted: May 13, 2005 at 03:49 PM (#1333683)
I am mostly using Win Shares with a bonus for peak seasons. Discounting pre-1893 pitching accomplishments, and trying to balance the positions so that a catcher occasionally makes the HOM.

1)JIMMIE FOXX – Second Manager in AAGPBL to make the HOM. Link to picture of Foxx with the 1952 Fort Wayne Daises. Foxx and the Daiseys
2)JOE CRONIN – Have you ever heard the story about the HOF talking about inducting Joe Jackson in the 1960’s, but it was squelched by some of the HOF members? I always suspected that Cronin was one of the squelchers, due the fact that he and Collins worked so closely for so long. Enders any insight into this tale?
3)MULE SUTTLES – I think he would have been at least even with Greenberg.
4)COOL PAPA BELL – I’m a little higher that most on Papa, I would think his worst-case scenario is Richie Ashburn or Max Carey, but more likely Billy Hamilton.
5)EDD ROUSH – I put him ahead of Averill due to his slightly longer MLB career, and slightly higher peak.
6)CARL MAYS – IMO the best combination of peak and career length among the available pitchers.
7)EARL AVERILL
8)WALLY BERGER – I know this group rarely comes to a conclusion, but I think it would be a benefit to discuss how Bell, Roush, Averill, Berger, Duffy, GVH and Hack Wilson and any others centerfielders compare to each other. After this ballot period I’ll try to start a discussion in the Roush thread, which currently has no comments.
9)ROGER BRESNAHAN – I think that the argument for him about being the best catcher in the period has considerable merit. Between Ewing and Hartnett he is the best.
10)TOMMY LEACH – That long career and solid peak, he probably won’t ever get in, but he is definitely ballot worthy.
   45. Mike Webber Posted: May 13, 2005 at 03:50 PM (#1333688)
11)WALLY SCHANG – 2nd best catcher between 1900 and 1925.
12)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list.
13)HUGHIE JENNINGS - His peak probably puts your team over the hump for the flag, trumps the problems of short career
14)DIZZY DEAN – Same arguments for Hughie and Ferrell apply to Diz.
15)LARRY DOYLE - His combination of Peak and Length nose out the 16 thru 30 crowd.

16-30 Traynor, Warneke, H. Wilson, Lazzeri, Waddell, Duffy, W. Cooper, Redding, Mendez, Moore, Grimes, Sewell, Sisler, Myer.


Disclosures – Beckwith – Not convinced he is Dick Allen, am convinced he is at least Bill Madlock and probably Edgar Martinez.

Mackey –re-read the Mackey thread, comfortable he is behind Schang and not in top 15.

Griffith and Rixey, in the 35 to 40 range, Rixey due to mediocre peak, Griffith to era discount mostly.

New comers Johnson, Rick Ferrell, and Camilli are around 50, and probably outside the scope of my serious consideration unless someone has a very persuasive arguments. I have followed the Bob Johnson discussion and would be happy to re-evaluate him if the rest of the electorate is convinced he is close.
   46. DavidFoss Posted: May 13, 2005 at 04:17 PM (#1333781)
Second Manager in AAGPBL to make the HOM.

Who was the first?
   47. Mike Webber Posted: May 13, 2005 at 04:39 PM (#1333834)
Max Carey
   48. Brad G Posted: May 13, 2005 at 05:43 PM (#1334019)
1951 Ballot:

1.Jimmie Foxx- He’ll go into my PHoM as the #2 all-time 1B, between Gehrig and Anson.

2.Mule Suttles- His ranking in comparison to Beckwith, in this case, is based primarily on the Win Share estimates of the two. While Beckwith probably played a more difficult position better, Suttles’ offensive output was enough to put him ahead of almost anyone, regardless of position. Superb power hitter.

3.Joe Cronin- At this point, I can go either way on Cronin vs. Suttles. I’m choosing to give Suttles the benefit of the doubt in this case. Cronin- easily the best SS since Pop Lloyd. The fifth of the five straight HoFers struck out by Carl Hubbell in the ’34 All-Star Game (but still had 2 RBIs in the game).

4.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

5.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Went into my HoM in 1938.

6.Chuck Klein- Career Runs Created = 1364, OPS+ = 137, and more Black Ink (60) than any other eligible player.

7.Wes Ferrell- Over 30 Win Shares/season.

8.Cool Papa Bell- The subjective accounts favor Cool Papa.

9.Earl Averil- Consistent if not exactly mind-blowing career. Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games. Used the heaviest bat in the majors.

10.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Win Shares A- Defender.

11.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

12.Eppa Rixey- Very good career, piled up some good Ink scores.

13.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.

14.Tommy Leach- Career Win Shares = 329, WARP1 = 113.7, WARP3 = 74.8.

15.John Beckwith- A constant struggle with his placement. Moving up, yet still not sold on him.

Biz Mackey?- Currently, the best catcher on my list still ranks #24.

Hughie Jennings is still hanging around #25.

Thanks!
   49. Gadfly Posted: May 13, 2005 at 06:33 PM (#1334151)
1951 BALLOT (Gadfly)

1. Gavy Cravath
The career of Gavy Cravath is being undervalued because of a simple misunderstanding. In his time, the minor leagues were not a funnel forcing the best baseball talent to the top. If Cravath had played his whole career in the Majors, my analysis shows a player with a five peak seasons of 44, 44, 41, 37, and 36 Win Shares and a career total approaching 500 WS. Gavy Cravath was an incredibly valuable player in his own time, and would have never stayed in the minors under present conditions.

2. John Beckwith (Major League comp: a slower stronger Rogers Hornsby)
By adjusted WS calculations, Beckwith has 402 career WS with peak seasons in the low 40s. In my opinion, these calculations are slightly off and miss Beckwith’s actual peak (1928 and 1929). With better information, I believe that Beckwith would have slightly higher numbers (career WS closer to 450 and peak seasons in the mid 40s). Beckwith is the best hitter here, though Cravath is close, closer than I thought.

3. Jimmie Foxx
Jimmie Foxx racked up 435 Career Win Shares with a five peak years of 41, 40, 34, 34, 34. If not for his 1942 rib injury which (for all intents and purposes) ended his career, Foxx would have probably gotten much closer to 500 WS for his career. An easy selection for the Hall of Merit, Foxx will obviously only be on the ballot for one year.

4. Dick Redding (Major League comp: Amos Rusie in the 20th Century)
Redding is the hardest player in my list to actually rate. By unadjusted and very tentative WS calculations in his thread, Redding is credited with somewhere between 250 and 300 career WS with peak seasons in the high 30s. I think he would have far exceeded the career WS projection, probably amassing around or over 400 career WS; and he was quite capable of WS seasons of 30 and higher. Redding is a forgotten great.

5. Cool Papa Bell (Major League comp: Max Carey’s better faster brother)
By adjusted WS calculations, Cool Papa Bell has 512 career WS with a five year peak of seasons in the mid 30s (37, 35, 35, 33, 32). I believe these figures to be essentially correct, but I believe he may have had one or two (1933 and 1940) peak seasons that were in reality even better. Bell was amazingly durable, and it is doubtful that any other player on my 1951 ballot would have finished with more career WS.

6. Mule Suttles (Major League comp: Hank Greenberg)
By adjusted WS calculations, Mule Suttles has 458 career WS with peak seasons (excepting the fluke season of 1926) in the low 40s. I believe that the peak seasons are being slightly inflated by inadequate park factors and Suttles probably had a peak in the middle to high 30s. Even so, Suttles probably had a higher peak than Bell; but, without absolute proof, ranks behind him on career WS. If his peak seasons were actually in the low 40s, Suttles should be even with Gavy Cravath and John Beckwith.

7. Charley Jones
8. Biz Mackey (Major League comp: Gabby Hartnett)
9. Dick Lundy (Major League comp: Frankie Frisch)
10. Joe Cronin
11. Ben Taylor (Major League comp: Ed Konetchy)
12. Roger Bresnahan
13. Hugh Duffy
14. Earl Averill
15. Edd Roush
   50. PhillyBooster Posted: May 13, 2005 at 06:55 PM (#1334214)
1. Jimmy Foxx (n/e) -- Great baseball player, but his career didn't really take off until he got a starring role on "In Living Color".

2. Joe Cronin (3) -- Nickname of "Ol' Double Non-Consecutive N" never really stuck.

3. Mule Suttles (4) -- The end of my "inner circle" grouping.

4. Eppa Rixey (5) -- Lots of way above average innings. Lots of solid seasons. War credit. Just because I argued for Lyons being better doesn't mean I now can't use him as a reason to vote for Rixey!

5. Jake Beckley (6) -- I consider myself equal parts "peak" and "career", but I think this peak-minded electorate is leaving me with lots of the older career guys on top.

6. Gavy Cravath (7) – No reason really. Just picked his name out of hat.

7. Jose Mendez (8) -- Will Martin Dihigo become the only Cuban pitcher in the Hall of Merit? No way, Jose.

8. Dolf Luque (9) -- See above. Great league with great pitchers. Relatively small league depresses stats (all teams are "All-Star" teams.) Where's the love?

9. Mickey Welch (10) -- Will the 1880s soon appear underrepresented? The is the end of my "second tier HoMer" group.

10. Roger Bresnahan (11) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

11. John Beckwith (12) -- I am satisfied that he was sufficiently better than Sewell to warrant a ballot spot.

12. Cupid Childs (13) -- More love for the 1890s.

13. Clark Griffith (14) -- Never the best pitcher, but always near the top.

14. Cannonball Dick Redding (15) -- Because that's just how I'm feeling today.

15. Hugh Duffy (off) -- back after a one week hiatus during which he was pre-empted by The Martin Dihigo Show.

This week, I voted for six of the carry over top ten, omitting Averill (16), Jennings (17), Mackey (23), and Ferrell (29). Expanding the ballot to 25 would put three of these four into contention, but would falsely give the impression that I had done a systematic study of Mackey versus Ferrell to decide whom to leave off.

16-20: Earl Averill, Hughie Jennings, Vic Willis, Tommy Leach, Jimmy Ryan
21-25: Bill Monroe, Joe Sewell, Biz Mackey, Wally Schang, Larry Doyle
26-30: Ed Cicotte, Charley Jones, Pete Browning, Wes Ferrell, George van Haltren
31-35: Bob Johnson, Dobie Moore, George Sisler, Cool Papa Bell, Tony Lazzeri
36-40: Frank Chance, Johnny Evers, Fielder Jones, Sol White, Wally Berger
41-50: Edd Roush, Hack Wilson, Carl Mays, Dizzy Dean, Rube Waddell
51-55: Bingo DeMoss, Ray Schalk, Wilbur Cooper, Dick Lundy, Tony Mullane
56-60: Bruce Petway, Burleigh Grimes, Joe Tinker, Urban Shocker, Babe Adams
61-65: Addie Joss,Jack Clement, Ben Taylor, Ed Williamson, Ed Konetchy
66-70: Ken Williams, Mike Tiernan, Billy Nash, Tommy Bond, Fred Dunlap
71-75: Roy Thomas, Cy Seymour, Dave Bancroft, Larry Gardner, Dummy Hoy
76-80: Lave Cross, Herman Long, George Burns, Bobby Veach, Rabbit Maranville
81-85: Miller Huggins, Pelayo Chacon, Joe Wood, Sam Rice, Kiki Cuyler
86-90: John McGraw, Buddy Myer, Jack Fournier, Del Pratt, Clyde Milan
91-95: Deacon McGuire, John Donaldson, Art Fletcher, Harry Hooper, Spottswood Poles
96-100: Tommy Bridges, Jake Daubert, Hal Chase, Tip O'Neill, Dolf Camilli
   51. OCF Posted: May 13, 2005 at 07:15 PM (#1334271)
That's a provocative vote, putting Cravath ahead of Foxx. But is it reasonable?

We're comparing a first baseman (with a little C and 3B a smidgen of P) to a flank outfielder - I don't see defense as swinging the argument very hard. This is about hitting. I have a season-by-season offensive number, a context-adjusted RCAA-related number, that I use. Let's sort the two careers best to worst, cutting off the years that fall below 1.0 on this scale, and let's use the assumption that Cravath's best FOUR years were all outside the major league context - an assumption that is quite generous to Cravath.

XX   Gavy
10.0  -
 9.5  -
 8.5  -
 7.2  -
 7.0  7.1
 6.6  5.8
 6.4  5.2
 6.2  4.7
 5.5  4.5
 4.0  3.8
 3.5  2.2
 3.1  1.6
 3.0  -
 2.9  -

Sorry - I don't see how Cravath could have been better than Foxx. PhillyBooster has looked at Cravath's minor league record as hard as anyone, and last year he had Cravath just behind Beckley and well behind Waner.
   52. OCF Posted: May 13, 2005 at 07:19 PM (#1334287)
... and this year's PhillyBooster ballot is similar.
   53. TomH Posted: May 13, 2005 at 07:20 PM (#1334291)
Gad, can you enlighten us with some comments on the holdover top 10s who are not on your ballot?

7 Eppa Rixey
8 Wes Ferrell
10 Hughie Jennings

FWIW, who is your highest rated eligible guy who actually pitched in MLB? Rixey, Ferrell, Griffith, Bridges, Waddell, Grimes, Welch? Any of these make your top 25?
   54. PhillyBooster Posted: May 13, 2005 at 07:29 PM (#1334316)
Whew! For a second there I had to go back and do a ballot check to make sure I didn't put in a "Freudian vote" and vote for Cravath too high!

My sixth place vote incorporates an assumed four seasons of well-above-average MLE play (3 AA + 1907 PCL) and one (1906 PCL) season of slightly-above-average MLE play.

In my mind, at least, my number 4-7 (Rixey, Beckley, Cravath, Mendez) are essentially tied. How do you even BEGIN to compare, say, Eppa Rixey and Gavvy Cravath? The foursome had probably four of the most "unique" careers compared to each other that four top-tier baseball could possibly have.

I don't think it takes anything away from any of them, though, to say that they weren't up to the level of the three guys above them.
   55. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 13, 2005 at 07:33 PM (#1334323)
2.Mule Suttles- His ranking in comparison to Beckwith, in this case, is based primarily on the Win Share estimates of the two.

Since Beckwith didn't have that many less estimated WS than Suttles (27), how do you account for the big difference in their rankings, Brad?
   56. PhillyBooster Posted: May 13, 2005 at 07:48 PM (#1334359)
That's a provocative vote, putting Cravath ahead of Foxx. But is it reasonable?

Nonetheless, while I would not presume to speak for Gadfly, and while I certainly disagree with putting Cravath ahead of Foxx, I think Gadfly's methodology was fully explicated in posts 149-156 on the Gavvy Cravath thread.

And while I do not agree (or understand!) all of it, I think that any methodology that takes 43 screen-flips to describe is going to probably meet the "reasonable ballot test". The general gist, as I read it, is that if he had been in the majors all of those "missing" years, he would have made adjustments and been even better than both his MLEs and actual major league numbers show.
   57. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 13, 2005 at 07:55 PM (#1334371)
And while I do not agree (or understand!) all of it, I think that any methodology that takes 43 screen-flips to describe is going to probably meet the "reasonable ballot test".

I have to agree, Matt. I don't agree with his vote, but I would be hard pressed to say that Gadfly made it without thinking the whole thing out.
   58. PhillyBooster Posted: May 13, 2005 at 08:10 PM (#1334420)
Anyway, if you like Gadfly's theories, stay tuned for my forthcoming "If Ken Singleton had been drafted by the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1947 and broken the color line in utero" projections for the 1990 election.

(Don't worry. This is a substantial discount for all Win Shares earned before the third trimester.)
   59. OCF Posted: May 13, 2005 at 08:21 PM (#1334447)
I agree with posts #56 and #57. I wasn't challenging the legitimacy of the ballot - I was just discussing it.

My sixth place vote incorporates an assumed four seasons of well-above-average MLE play (3 AA + 1907 PCL) and one (1906 PCL) season of slightly-above-average MLE play.

With respect to my post #51, I rather suspect that that the "7.1" (1915) was probably Cravath's best year in any context and the other four years that PhillyBooster refers to splice into that list in various places, with 1906 falling off the back.
   60. jingoist Posted: May 13, 2005 at 08:24 PM (#1334454)
Well, his handle isn't gadfly for nothing!

I was wondering if any voter would have the chutzpah to NOT pick Foxx at #1 position.

I can understand the logic flow for feeling Beckwith is underated; but Cravath as a #1?

That might be the worst #1 pick since Portland drafted LaRue Martin from Loyola of Chicago in 1973!
   61. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 13, 2005 at 09:24 PM (#1334607)
re:Suttles WS vs. Beckwith WS,

I realize that John wasn't talking to me here but I want to speak up now anyway.

This isn't the computer that I have my spreadsheets on so I am winging this, but I think Suttles advantage lies in peak. As far as I remember John Beckwith gets a 13 for peak score (all WS over 25) while Suttles gets a 24 in my system.

There are obviously caveats here. One is that these aren't the newest WS estimates and I do remember Chris Cobb saying that Beckwith's peak may be 'smoothed out' after posting his WS estimates. maybe some a few WS should be taken from his 15-20 seasons and added to his best seasons.

Also, Suttles advantage lies almost completely in that 42 WS season. How likely is it that he actually had a season like that and it is not some sort of error? I think that even if you admit that his best season was morelikely to have been 36 or 35, that extra WS should be posited somewhere else in his peak/prime so the difference here is slight. And if he really did have one great career year, entirely possible when you look at the carer arcs of guys like Cy Seymour, Norm Cash, or Will Clark, then he does deserve some credit for having that historical season.

Overall I think that Beckwith's peak was a little better than the WS estimates show and that Suttles was a little worse, which evens things out. And I want to state that I am not removing or adding WS here, but redistributing them a little. However, my very controversial claim that Beckwith's would have played more 1B in the Majors than he did in the NeL and would have played next to zero SS keeps him one spot below Suttles and while I could flip flop here I am unlikely to do so.
   62. DanG Posted: May 14, 2005 at 04:16 AM (#1335666)
I only have time to do a Rob Wood style ballot this year. What the heck, I'll even use some of his justifications.

1. Jimmie Foxx - an inner circle HOFer, top 35 all-time. Connie Mack proclaimed him "the next Gavy Cravath" in the late 20's.
2. Joe Cronin - not among the top 100, but nobody else on this ballot is in the top 150.
3. George Van Haltren - in a glut now with Sewell and Duffy, his status as a serious candidate is slowly subsiding.
4. Clark Griffith - still standing!
5. Tommy Leach - approaching Lost Cause status, see Ryan comment.
6. Earl Averill - CF with PCL credit
7. Edd Roush - very good centerfielder
8. George Sisler - value is non-linear
9. Eppa Rixey - very good P for a long time
10. Wes Ferrell - overlooked caucasian star
11. Jimmy Ryan - I'm publicly invoking the unofficial addendum to the constitution and downgrading him due to his Lost Cause status, as others have done privately.
12. Biz Mackey - he could catch!
13. Cool Papa Bell - great nicknames have been known to impress some voters
14. Mule Suttles - overlooked negro star
15. Hughie Jennings - great 90's SS back on my ballot

John Beckwith - makes a 20-man ballot
   63. dan b Posted: May 14, 2005 at 05:34 PM (#1336366)
1.Foxx Not as good as Gehrig
2.Suttles Bill James likes him more than we do.
3.Cronin 2nd to Foxx in 8 year peak.
4.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
5.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
6.Mackey the only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
7.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
8.Leach PHoM 1926.
9.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
10.Averill More WS over 10 consecutive years than any other ML player on the ballot except Foxx.
11.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy. Only appeared on 45% of the ballots last year.
12.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander put him in PHoM 1939.
13.W. Cooper Of pitchers whose career began after 1910 and are now eligible for our consideration, Cooper has more WS over 10 consecutive seasons than any pitcher except Alexander, Grove and Hubbell. It looks like I am the only friend he has left. PHoM 1942. In the interest of ballot fragmentation control (BFC), I will drop Cooper from my ballot if karlmagnus agrees to stop voting for Leever.
14.Cravath Now that we have some mle’s, Gavy jumps on to my ballot and could move higher. Would be in my PHoM had that information been available back in the early 30’s.
15.Ferrell moving above Mays, but not ready to move above Cooper.
16.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
17. Mays Pennants added likes him. I still like him better than Vance or Faber.
18.Roush PHoM 1942.
19.Arlett My system puts his mle’s between Roush and Burns.
20.Lyons
21.Lundy Only Biz Mackey fared better in the Cool Papa’s survey.
22.Burns,GJ
23.Sisler
24.Berger
25.Redding
26.Sewell
27.Dean
28.Waddell
29.Poles
30.Chance
31.Browning
32.Doyle
33.Willis
34.Van Haltren
35.Traynor
   64. DavidFoss Posted: May 14, 2005 at 06:00 PM (#1336426)
War is raging once again and a draft is in danger of taking talent out of baseball once again. The draft doesn't appear to be anywhere near as extensive as WWII and there are plenty of NeL-ers ready to fill the gaps and then some.

1951 Ballot

1. Jimmie Foxx (ne) Second best first baseman so far. Triple Crown, 3 MVP's, yadda yadda yadda. :-)
2. Joe Cronin (2) One of the best eligible SS's to date and first eligible of the great crop of 30s-40s stars. Excellent fielder in his prime. Benched himself when it was clear that he could still hit.
3. John Beckwith (4) He compares well to Cronin, in my opinion. Kept him below Cronin after seeing most of the biggest Beckwith supporters doing the same.
4. Hughie Jennings (5) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago.
5. Clark Griffith (6) -- The plethora of borderline 20's candidates is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
6. Larry Doyle (7) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, but he's rapidly looking to be a Lost Cause. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
7. Cupid Childs (8) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
8. Mule Suttles (9) -- I think Beckwith was a bit better. Guys with their batting skill are much tougher to find on the left side of the infield than at OF/1B. He certainly did have the 'big year', though.
9. Dick Redding (10) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. Wes Ferrell (11) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
11. Joe Sewell (12) -- His RCAA numbers are good and earn him a place on the ballot. His RCAP numbers are a bit inflated due to his being 10 years older than Cronin/Vaughn/Appling.
12. Biz Mackey (13) -- Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Could move up or down.
13. Earl Averill (14) -- Hard guy to judge. Solid ten year prime, but not much else. The best white CF between Cobb/Speaker & Dimaggio, but I don't feel he has the dominance that a short-career outfielder should. Credit for an extra PCL season helps. He's making the ballot which is a credit to him as I tend to be tough on non-shoo-in outfielders
14. John McGraw (15) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
15. Gavvy Cravath (nr) -- Reaching into the backlog for the first time in a few years. Cravath edges out CJones and GSisler for the six points.

Rixey -- Lingering near the edge of the ballot. Very good for a long time. I did like him better than Faber. He's on my radar.
   65. favre Posted: May 14, 2005 at 08:17 PM (#1336818)
1.Jimmie Foxx
2.Mule Suttles
3.Earl Averill

Suttles had a similar skill set to Willie Stargell, and Chris’ projected WS totals are comparable to Pops: 370 WS/21 years for Stargell, 353 WS/19 years for Suttles (Suttles WS are based on old MLE’s; the new MLE’s should give him even more WS). Probably had a better peak than Stargell, though perhaps not as good as a career. So call Suttles Willie-Stargell-lite, or Diet Pops.

Averill had a very good ten-year prime from 1929-1938, and was a great player in the PCL for a couple of seasons before that. He was a comparable hitter to Beckwith, but likely had more defensive value.

4.John Beckwith
5.Joe Cronin

While there are some questions about Beckwith’s defense, baseball history is not exactly littered with guys who could play SS/3B and hit .330 with power. Cronin wasn’t the hitter that Beckwith was. WS suggests he was a better defensive player, although Cronin did not have a great reputation with the glove. Similar players in many respects, but Beckwith’s bat gives him the edge.

6.Jake Beckley
7.Eppa Rixey

Beckley does not have much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

8.Wally Schang
9.Clark Griffith

I took a long, hard look at Biz Mackey, but ended up putting Schang on the ballot. Obviously Mackey has the defensive edge, and is projected for considerably more games at catcher. But Mackey is projected for three seasons with an OPS+of 121 or higher, while Schang had nine; the next highest OPS+ for both catchers was 111. Chris’ projections would have to be way off for Mackey to equal Schang as a hitter. And Mackey’s defense would not have been as valuable in the major leagues, because there was far less basestealing than the NeL. I’m forced to conclude that Schang was better.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

10.George Sisler
11.Rube Waddell
12.Jose Mendez

At age 29, Sisler would have seemed to be a lock for the HoM. He had a great run from 1917-1922, hitting .407 and .420 in a couple of seasons, and was first or second in stolen bases every year for five years. He also played at a position which had not seen a dominant star since the 1890s.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

13.Cool Papa Bell
14.Tommy Leach
15. Ned Williamson

In the end, I like long careers, and it’s very difficult to ignore Bell, who projects to between 370-420 win shares. Leach moves down to the end of my ballot, but I still like his combination of good hitting and excellent defense at two key positions. Ned Williamson makes the end of the ballot for what I presume will be the last time for a long while. Like Leach, he combined good hitting with excellent defense; he also had a higher peak than Leach, which makes me wonder if I shouldn’t switch the two. I choose Williamson over Jennings because of ned’s longer career.

16.Hugh Jennings
17.Cupid Childs
18.Wes Ferrell

Ferrell and Mickey Welch are the players that I find the toughest to gauge. Traditional stats and Win Shares see Ferrell as essentially the same type of player as Carl Mays (to be fair, James has Mays at #38 and Ferrell at #40, well within HoM range). WARP sees Ferrell as something more special, but I don’t trust WARP. The era during which he pitched, plus the value of his hitting, does suggest that he could be underrated, but right now Ferrell will continue to hang just off my ballot.

19.Edd Roush
20.Larry Doyle
21.Biz Mackey

I see Mackey as sort of a Lance-Parrish-type, although better than Parrish: Parrish had much more power, but Mackey hit for better average and was probably a better defensive player. Honestly, I’m not thrilled about having Mackey this low, but I also can’t see moving him ahead of the guys in front of him right now.

22. Dick Redding
23.Gavvy Cravath
24.Buzz Arlett
25.Pete Browning
26.Mike Tiernan
27.George Van Haltren
28.Jimmy Ryan
29.Mickey Welch
30.Jim McCormick
   66. Gadfly Posted: May 14, 2005 at 08:20 PM (#1336823)
53. Tom H-

I evaluate by Win Shares and look for two things, 1: bulk (career total) and 2: peak (MVP type seasons).

When looking at bulk, I usually like a player to have at least 300 career Win Shares.

When looking at peak, I like a player to have multiple seasons of more than 30 Win Shares. In other words, MVP type seasons that would really help win championships.

So, basically, I have problems with two types of players: 1) players that are all bulk but no peak (Jake Beckley being the perfect example) and 2) players that are all peak but no bulk.

In my view, a Hall of Fame or Merit player should have both bulk and peak.

Of course, I also make allowances for certain other things that disrupt a player's career (catching, managing, racial discrimination, financial considerations, major league quality play in the minors, etc.) probably to a greater degree than most people here.

As for the players you mentioned:

Rixey- all bulk [315+], no real peak [26-26-24]
(Rixey is sort of the pitching equivalent of Jake Beckley)

Ferrell- needs bulk [233], ok peak [35-32-28]
(I wish Ferrell had played OF in the Majors after his arm went dead)

Jennings- needs bulk [214], all peak [36-32-29]
(Of course, Jennings' peak is even greater than this when adjusted for games and for the 1890s talent squeeze. Jose Mendez is the pitching equivalent of Hughie Jennings.)

As for pitchers:

My highest rated pitcher would probably be Tony Mullane [399 career WS] who I feel is better than Mickey Welch [354 career WS] even with a 10% AA discount. Mullane had several interruptions to his career that kept him from amassing 450 or so career WS.

I used to put Mullane on my ballot but stopped because I am unsure how much of all that WS credit before 1893 should really go to Mullane and how much is simply team fielding.

As for the other pitchers:

Griffith- ok bulk [273], ok peak [34-32-30]
Bridges- needs bulk [225], needs peak [26-22]
Waddell- needs bulk [240], good peak [35-33-32]
Grimes- ok bulk [286], ok peak [32-30-29]

My number 15 rated guy is Edd Roush with an ok bulk [314], and ok peak [33-33-30].

Both Griffith and Grimes are pretty comparable to Roush, but slightly less. Giving Griffith credit for the 1890s talent squeeze and the effect that managing probably had on his career WS total, I could possibly be persuaded that he was better than Roush.

On the other hand, Grimes would probably get a mental discount from me for being a spitballer (if I have any bias, it is a present day baseball context bias and I wouldn't have voted for Ross Barnes in a million years) and I wouldn't put him over Roush.

Of the other two, Bridges doesn't measure up, but Waddell is very interesting.

WS (1897,1899-1910)
1,7-16-17-33-27-32-35-18-20-21-12-1 = 240.

Waddell, of course, was a total Fruit Loop. He started his pro career in 1896 at 19 and was in the Majors briefly with Louisville in 1897 at the age of 20 for 1 WS. But, despite the fact that he threw harder than living hell, no one could handle Waddell's personality so he went back down to the minors. Then he went 27-13 for two teams in the 1899 Western League.

Waddell returned to Louisville in 1899 in time to go 7-2 in 9 starts at the end of the season for 7 WS and an overall record of 34-15 in 1899.

If he had spent the whole season in the Majors, he would have probably amassed 30 to 35 Win Shares.

In 1900, Louisville and Pittsburgh combined. Waddell amassed 16 Win Shares for Pittsburgh where he was evidently unhappy. But he also went 10-3 for Milwaukee in the new American League for an overall record of 18-16. Waddell would have probably had 25 or so WS playing just for PIT.

In 1902, after an off-year in 1901 [probably due to how hard he had been pitched in 1899 with 410 IP and in 1900 with 338 IP], Waddell went 24-7 for Connie Mack's Athletics, amassing 33 WS.

But Waddell pitched the beginning of that season for Los Angeles, going 11-8 for a total record in 1902 of 35-15. Waddell would have probably amassed in excess of 40 Win Shares in 1902, if he had pitched the whole year in the Majors.

In 1909, Waddell fell out of the Majors, despite probably still being a Major League caliber pitcher, because he was still a nutcase. But he could have probably pitched until 1912 in the Majors.

His career could have easily looked like this:

career WS 1897-1912
1-7-30-25-17-40-27-32-35-18-20-21-12-6-12-5 = 308.

And that is without giving him any credit for the 1900 NL talent concentration.

His peaks are even more impressive:

Peaks:
1902 40
1905 35
1904 32
1899 30
1903 27

And the WS estimates for 1899 and 1902 are probably conservative.

So I would rate the four pitchers you mentioned as:

1) Rube Waddell
2) Clark Griffith
3) Burleigh Grimes
4) Tommy Bridges

I'll probably put Waddell on my ballot in 1952.
   67. Brent Posted: May 15, 2005 at 01:58 AM (#1337426)
1951 Ballot:

One all-time great player became eligible this year. The other newly eligible candidates form an interesting, but not terribly strong group. The other notable change to my ballot this year is that after considering the discussion between Andrew Siegel, Chris Cobb, and others on the Dick Lundy thread, I’ve decided to slightly bump up the Negro League MLEs for 1925-35.

1. Jimmie Foxx –
One of the more enjoyable aspects of this project is that when I spend time going over a player’s bbref page in detail preparing my HoM evaluation, I inevitably learn something new, even for those players I thought I knew pretty well. For example, while I knew that Foxx had been a catcher early in his career, I hadn’t been aware of how much time he spent at catcher later in his career.

2. Wes Ferrell –
Lyons sails into the HoM, while Ferrell shows up on only 26 ballots? Here’s their WARP1 for their 8 best seasons:
Ferrell 14.1, 11.9, 11.4, 10.7, 9.7, 8.9, 6.6, 6.5
Lyons 10.6, 10.3, 09.1, 08.8, 8.7, 7.7, 6.5, 6.5

I look at the rest of Lyons’ career and I have trouble seeing how it makes up for his substantial gap behind Ferrell in peak and prime. Where’s the love for the Ferrell, the fourth-best pitcher of the period 1920-43?

3. Mule Suttles –
If Ken Burns ever decides to film “Baseball II: The Players of the Hall of Merit,” I suggest that Muddy Waters’ “Long Distance Call” could be used as background music for the George Suttles segment.

4. Joe Cronin –
An outstanding shortstop, but unlike the first three players on my ballot, not one of the top 100 players in baseball history.

5. John Beckwith –
A great hitter.

6. Hughie Jennings –
In the 1986 BJHBA, James presented two top-100 lists, one for peak value, the other for career value. It’s always seemed to me that the top players on my peak list should be considered strong HoM candidates, even if they don’t place well on my career list. Jennings should rank about # 30 on the peak list, so I see him as fully qualified for the HoM.

7. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL.

8. Dizzy Dean –
If you vote for Jennings or Waddell, you ought to take another look at Dean. See my case for Dean in # 26 on the Dizzy Dean thread.

9. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

10. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones.

11. José de la Caridad Méndez –
See my case for Méndez in # 65 on the José Méndez thread.

12. Biz Mackey –
Outstanding defensive catcher who was also a good hitter during his prime.

13. Roger Bresnahan –
The greatest major league catcher of the deadball era.

14. Cool Papa Bell –
I’m getting more sold on his credentials. Probably the equal of Carey on defense, but a better hitter. I’ve always been impressed by his runs scored totals.

15. Tommie Leach –
I noticed in Deadball Stars of the National League that he signed his name with an “ie” rather than a “y”. 6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey and Sheckard.

I wish I could have voted for 22. These guys are all meritorious too:

16. Clark Griffith
17. Buzz Arlett
18. Gavy Cravath
19. George Burns
20. Urban Shocker
21. Dobie Moore
22. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals:

None of the other new arrivals is a serious ballot contender. The one I’ve ranked highest, Paul Derringer ( # 68), has not been discussed at all on the ballot discussion thread.

Just behind him is Bob Johnson. The strength of Johnson’s HoF case is that he wasn’t substantively worse than Klein, Manush, or Wilson. The weakness of Johnson’s HoM case is that he wasn’t substantively better than Klein, Manush, or Wilson.

Harlond Clift would be in the 90s if I kept my rankings going that far. Roberto Estalella turns out to have been better than I expected, but if someone wants to champion an overlooked Cuban player I suggest that they start with Alejandro Oms. Rick Ferrell gets to compete with Travis Jackson, Jesse Haines, George Kelly, and Chick Hafey for least qualified HoFer.

Other top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
I have him ranked # 29. During their primes, Grimes was better.
   68. TomH Posted: May 15, 2005 at 04:28 AM (#1337876)
Gadfly -
Thanks for your response, which was very complete in its explanation.
I think the differences in our rankings will be mostly be contextual. Of the MLB pitchers mentioned, your top ones (I perceive your ordering to be Mullane, Welch, Waddell, Griffith) are all pre-1920. It is obvious that it was much more difficult to achieve 300 career WS or a peak of 30 WS a year once the live ball came in, and in the modern era this is even more true - will Pedro Martinez even approach 300 WS, and were his peak WS per season anywhere near Waddell's, never mind Mullane's?
I apply more of a 'rank among contemporaries' crierion; if we don't do this, our balance among eras will wind up out of whack.
   69. EricC Posted: May 15, 2005 at 05:49 PM (#1338414)
1951 ballot.

1. Jimmie Foxx He roxx!

2. Wally Schang 12th all-time in career WS among catchers in the NBJHBA, but that doesn't take into account AL strength during his time nor low in-season catcher usage during his era. Not at Cochrane-Hartnett Dickey level, but not far behind.

3. Joe Cronin Even Joe Sewell's best friends all have Cronin rated higher.

4. Joe Sewell Dominant major league SS by so much during his prime that he would be in the top half of my PHoM.

5. Earl Averill I view him as close to the average of Elmer Flick and Frank Baker.

6. Mule Suttles It's the home runs. According to Holway, the NEL home run king, and among the top 5 in league HR 12 or 13 times. Park effects, and perhaps league weakness, gave him a boost while he played in St. Louis, but was also among league leaders while in Birmingham, Baltimore, Chicago, and Newark.

7. Tommy Bridges Most similar pitcher: Urban Shocker With deductions for low quality of competition in the early war years, and no credit for later war years, but no penalty for preferentially facing poor teams. 126 ERA+ in a still strong (?) AL is impressive.

8. Lefty Gomez The 2 Cy-Young type seasons plus the remainder of his prime, alternating with Ruffing as the ace of the Yankees dynasty during the 1930s, helps put him on my ballot.

9. Jose Mendez His domination of the Cuban leagues and total run average title in his full NEL season may indicate a HOM-worthy peak, with all of the uncertainties involved.

10. Sam Rice I think his league-adjusted career value puts him in HoM territory, though I can see why there's not a lot of love for singles-hitting right fielders.

11. Biz Mackey Enters my ballot for the first time, as I reevaluated his career, giving him a slight boost in a portion of the ballot where the difference between players is razor thin. By reputation, one of the greatest C in NEL history, a 1920s star, then hung around forever.

12. Buddy Myer It seems like I'm more likely to vote for borderline 2/4/5/6 infielders than the consensus, but I like it that way. It seems to make the balance among positions close to that of Cooperstown. A borderline candidate, as are Schalk,Traynor,Lazzeri ....

13. Wes Ferrell Great prime, small bonus for hitting. Hurt from a HoF perspective by pitching in such a hitter's era.

14. Roger Bresnahan Top catcher of the 19-aughts, consistently all-star quality in his prime.

15. Heinie Manush I don't like the excess of corner outfielders in the HoM, but can't dock Manush for that. It's telling that his highest similarity score through age 36 is with Paul Waner (not that Waner wasn't better, of course).

Others in last year's top 10:

I view other contemporary candidates as superior to Beckwith : Stearnes and Suttles as hitters, Wilson as a 3B, Wells and Lundy as SS, Mackey and Gibson as hitters in the toughest defensive position.

Eppa Rixey has been squeezed off my ballot by more recent players.

Jennings is a difficult case. He has made my ballot before. As I currently balance peak and career, he ends up short.

Other newcomers:

Bob Johnson was a greater player than I realized before. He ends up 19th in my system. If not for war year discounts, he might have made my ballot.

Many serious candidates for the Hall of the Very Good. Among them: Harlond Clift: intriguing parallels to Ed Williamson; Rick Ferrell: Even in my catcher-friendly system he doesn't come close; Dolph Camilli: a classic high-peak, short career star.
   70. Gadfly Posted: May 15, 2005 at 07:17 PM (#1338601)
68. TomH-

Actually, I think I would order the pitchers as: 1) Waddell, 2) Mullane, 3) Griffith, 4) Welch, 5) Grimes [what a wonderful name for a spitball pitcher]; for the exact same reason you bring up, timeline bias.

And I could probably be easily convinced that the two 1880s guys are too high.

Although I use James' Win Shares, I do know that it has flaws, probably the biggest one being that players are sometimes simply being credited for luck (i.e. the difference between the team's actual wins and the team's expected wins).

But another problem would be timeline bias. As you point out, this seems to be a particularily large problem with pitchers.

Pedro 1992-2001 (167)
1-12-11-14-14-26-21-27-29-12

With 2002 to 2004 added in, Pedro probably has about 220-230 career Win Shares now. I think that there's a pretty good chance that he will make it to around 300 if his arm holds up.

But, by my system, he would probably rank behind a whole bunch of pre-WW2 guys and that's not right. Pedro, to my mind, is pretty much a slam dunk Hall of Famer, especially if he adds in the bulk of a few more good years.

As you stated, it's obvious that today's pitchers are not being credited with the MVP (over 30 WS seasons) type seasons that I mentioned as being important in my system.

TO 2001
PITCHER-Best 4 WS-(Career)
Pedro 29-27-26-21 (167)
Randy 26-26-26-23 (226)
Schil 24-22-22-17 (163)
Brown 26-26-23-20 (211)

None of these guys broke 30 (although Randy may have in 2002 and Schilling had pretty damn fine years in 2002 and 2004).

Intellectually, I don't know if I agree with this. Since one actual win equals three win shares and today's best pitchers put up records of about 24-4 or so, it would make sense that a 24-4 season would result in 30 Win Shares (i.e. the pitcher would raise the level of an 81 win team to 91 wins or 10 victories or 30 win shares).

But actually that doesn't seem right. A pitcher who goes 24-4 on an average team is not going to replace a 14-14 pitcher. He's more likely to take the place of a replacement level pitcher, say a .400 or 11-17 pitcher. That would raise the level of an 81 win team to 94 wins or 13 victories or 39 win shares.

If you make that replacement level pitcher a .333 pitcher, it goes up to 45 or so Win Shares.

I think that pitchers' records are suffering from a quite severe timeline bias that, way back in the past, credited the pitcher far too much for team defense and, presently, credits the team defense far too much for the pitcher's skill.

Of course, Win Shares for pitchers have been steadily decreasing over time [The following tables were put together quickly, are not all-inclusive, and probably contain mistakes].

MOST WS (SEASON) BY A PITCHER PER DECADE:

1876-79 61 Galvin
1880-89 89 Radbourn
1890-99 56 Rusie (2nd Hutchison 54)
1900-09 53 Chesbro (2nd Walsh 47)
1910-09 54 Johnson (2nd Johnson again 47)
1920-29 39 Luque (2nd Faber 37)
1930-39 42 Grove (2nd Grove-Hubbell-Dean 37)
1940-49 42 Trout (2nd Newhouser 38)
1950-59 35 Roberts (2nd Roberts again 32)
1960-69 36 Gibson (2nd Koufax 35)
1970-79 40 Carlton (2nd Perry 39)
1980-89 33 Gooden (2nd Carlton-Clemens 29)
1990-99 32 Clemens (2nd Maddux 30)

Note: Greg Maddux had 26-30 WS in 1994-95. Pro-rated to 162 games, that would be about 37-34.

PITCHERS IN TOP TEN OF TOTAL WS BY DECADE:

1880s Top ten are all pitchers.
1890s Top 3, four of top five are pitchers.
1900s 3-4-8-9 (Young-Mathewson-McGinnity-Waddell)
1910s 2-5 (Johnson-Alexander)
1920s 8-9-10 (Alexander-Grimes-Rixey)
1930s 5-10 (Grove-Hubbell)
1940s 4 (Newhouser)
1950s 7-9 (Spahn-Roberts)
1960s 17 (Marichal)
1970s 9 (Palmer)
1980s 29 (Stieb)
1990s 10 (Maddux)

From 1876 to 1892, before the mound was moved back and many pitcher's threw underhand, pitchers were the most valuable players on the diamond. A whole bunch of these guys had seasons of over 50, over 60, and even over 70 Win Shares.

In 1884, Charlie Radbourn actually was credited with a 89 win share season (in other words, he would make a 81 win team into a 111 win team all by himself). Do I believe that Radbourn, at his peak, was three times the pitcher that Roger Clemens is today? Hell no.

I think Radbourn was getting a lot of credit that should have gone to his fielders.

Do today's pitchers get all the credit that they deserve?

I don't think so.

I think the best pitchers today are being slighted and will take it into consideration. Basically, it seems to me that there should be a sliding scale for pitcher's WS that reduces those ancient chuckers down to size and increases today's hurlers up to scale.

However, what that scale would be, I have no idea. Should Pedro's WS be increased by 25 or 33 or 50 percent? I don't know.
   71. Trevor P. Posted: May 15, 2005 at 08:26 PM (#1338780)
#1) James Emory Foxx (new)
"Double-X" is one of the best nicknames, period.

#2) Mule Suttles (2)
#3) Joe Cronin (3)

Cronin was a solid SS for many years, with an intriguing late career renaissance starting in 1937. But I prefer Suttles' monstrous power over a long period of time, despite the fact that
he played an easier defensive position.

#4) John Beckwith (5)

Discounted a bit as I was overestimating his playing time. If we’re picking shortstops, I’d still rather have Beckwith’s bat than Sewell’s glove.

#5) George Van Haltren (6)

Long career, OPS+ above 120 (sort of a personal benchmark figure for me, the sabermetric equivalent of 2500 hits), and held his own as a pitcher. Gets a small bonus simply due to his versatility in 1888-90. Everyone eligible that’s ranked higher according to HOF standards is in the HOM aside from Hugh Duffy.

#6) Edd Roush (7)

Similar to GVH: higher OPS+ but fewer plate appearances due to injuries.

#7) Eppa Rixey (8)

See Jake Beckley.

#8) Jake Beckley (9)

See Eppa Rixey.

#9) Burleigh Grimes (10)

At first glance not as impressive as Rixey, and initially that 107 ERA+ scared me off, but as Kelly from SD pointed out once upon a time, Burleigh Arland was among the top three pitchers in his league six times, and one of the two best five times. Low defensive support, as well, gets him on the ballot.

#10) Earl Averill (11)

Now confident he belongs on the ballot.

#11) Wally Schang (12)

Mackey sans decline, but without the glove. Better than Bresnahan, in my opinion; career WARP-3 for Schang is 71.4, Bresnahan is 57.5.

#12) Clark Griffith (14)

One huge year (1898) and at least five others where I’d say he was an all-star candidate. I’ve never been a huge fan of Griffith’s, but he keeps hanging on to the bottom of my ballot.

#13) Dick Redding (off)
Leapfrogs a bunch of players this week. Hard to justify not having Redding if I claim to be a career voter, supporting both both Grimes and Rixey. I'm not sure about his precise placement - will have to look at his peak figures a bit closer - but for now "Cannonball" catches the tail-end of this week's ballot.

#14) Wes Ferrell (off)
Slides back onto the ballot, somewhat hesitatingly. I'm not as big a fan of his hitting statistics (a 100 OPS+ in 1345 at-bats) as others are.

#15) Larry Doyle (15)

Everytime a 2B/SS with HOM potential appears on the ballot (I'm looking at you, Joe Cronin), I keep returning to Doyle. Beckwith-lite?

Disclosures: I'm losing faith in Mackey, who is somewhere around #20. Sisler is hovering around #17. Jennings doesn't have the requisite career to place much higher than 30th, though he is the highest of the "all sizzle, no steak" category of my ballot. I'll admit, I'm too lazy to look up specifically who I should be accounting for this year, but these guys tend to be the usual suspects.

New guys: Bob Johnson seems a touch above Cuyler and Manush, and had more longevity than either Chuck Klein or Hack Wilson, but in my estimation is not at the level of the current CFs monopolizing the ballot.

Rick Ferrell's no Wes, but he's ten times the player Ferrell Anderson was.
   72. Brent Posted: May 15, 2005 at 09:23 PM (#1338963)
Gadfly wrote:

I think the best pitchers today are being slighted and will take it into consideration. Basically, it seems to me that there should be a sliding scale for pitcher's WS that reduces those ancient chuckers down to size and increases today's hurlers up to scale.

However, what that scale would be, I have no idea. Should Pedro's WS be increased by 25 or 33 or 50 percent? I don't know.


Since most of the difference over time in WS reflects variations in pitchers' workloads, as measured by innings pitched by the top pitchers each season, I scale pitchers' WS up and down based on the typical workload of the period.

On the Pitchers thread I've posted the innings pitched by the pitcher who ranked # 5 in innings pitched each season. I picked the 5th ranked pitcher to try to get a measure that reflected what a good pitcher might be expected to pitch, and to avoid the outliers caused by the occasional pitcher who pitched much more than his colleagues. This information is found in posts # 257, 258, 270, and 281.

To incorporate it in my rankings, I first take a moving average over several seasons, then form an index that goes down 7.5 percent when the innings pitched drops by 10 percent. (The reason for not having it drop a full 10 percent is that it seemed reasonable to continue to give some advantage to pitchers who worked during periods with heavy workloads, though not the full amount.) I've scaled it so the index equals 1 with a workload of 333 innings pitched (a workload that was typical of the 1900-1909 period). I then divide each pitcher's WS by this index to create WS that have been adjusted for pitching workload.

If you haven't read it, I recommend the Pitchers thread; lots of useful information has been posted on it. Although it's not one of the more active threads for discussion, it does serve as a repository of useful information.
   73. Andrew M Posted: May 16, 2005 at 12:34 AM (#1339433)
1951 Ballot

1. (new) Jimmie Foxx. No argument here.

2. (3) Joe Cronin. Among middle IFs, I have him just below Gehringer and above Frisch. Both Win Shares and WARP show him to have outstanding peak and career numbers—particularly for a shortstop.

3. (4) John Beckwith. A great hitter who could also could play some SS and 3B. Shorter career than Suttles, but at his peak he seems to have been a better hitter and fielder. I don’t know what to make of his reputation, but I am not marking him down for character issues.

4. (6) Mule Suttles. The ML projections we have (.301/.364/.537, 137 OPS+) wouldn’t seem to put him in the elite hitter category of first basemen, but he played forever and was clearly a formidable slugger.

5. (7) Eppa Rixey. Throw out the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings tells me he should be on the ballot someplace.

6. (9) Geo. Van Haltren. Some weeks he moves up, some weeks he moves down, but I suspect I am going to be voting for him until he finally gets elected or there are no more ballots to be cast.

7. (5) Earl Averill. With the appearance of Bob Johnson this week, I reassessed the eligible OFs in the 280-300 Win Shares range (Averill, Manush, Johnson, F. Jones, Burns, Duffy, Cuyler) and still am not sure what order to put them in—or that any of them are really election-worthy. In his favor, Averill has 1) a very good 10 year stretch when he was one of the 3 best AL OFs, 2) A+ quality CF defense (well, maybe—BPro suggests otherwise), 3) a good argument for receiving 1 and maybe 2 years of PCL credit. From 1929 on, Win Shares shows him to be almost identical to Waner. (Both, e.g., have 253 WS in the 1930s.) Although he was playing in the PCL, I think he was probably a comparable player before 1929 as well.

8. (10) Clark Griffith. It’s hard to find any one thing that stands out, but I buy the argument that the totality of the available evidence presents a compelling case in his favor. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His peak level of performance between 1895-1901 was significant.

9. (8) Hugh Duffy. It’s possible Win Shares over-rates Duffy, and there would seem also to be some inherent problems with projecting short seasons to 162 games, but if you do this, Duffy’s Wins Shares jump into the mid-330s with 3, 5, 7, 10 year runs as good or better than any other eligible player, which along with his excellent OF play and good black and gray ink, makes him look ballot-worthy to me.

10. (11) Larry Doyle. Sort of Joe Cronin-lite. Actually not so lite--higher career OPS+ (126 to 119) than Cronin--but shorter career and almost certainly not as good a fielder in a less-critical defensive position. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which would not make him the worst defensive 2B elected into the HoM.

11. (12) Biz Mackey. Excellent defensive reputation, long career, and positional bonus work in his favor. Projected OPS+ of 98 hard to reconcile with his reputation as “one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball” (Riley). Midway between the Hartnett/Cochrane and Schang/Bresnahan is right about here on my ballot.

12. (14) Dobie Moore. Conservative credit for his 7 or so years in the army moves him ahead of Jennings, who has, perhaps, more peak but less career. At his best, I think Moore may have been better than Beckwith or Suttles—but his career just doesn’t seem long enough to move him up next to them—or Cronin, who he resembles in some ways--on my ballot.

13. (18) Edd Roush. With the Federal League, missed games, and an ejection for sleeping in the OF to contend with, it’s hard to know what to make of Roush. Arguably the best position player in the NL between 1917-1920. Intuitively, it seems odd that the HoM might end up electing Carey, but not Roush.

14. (13) Cupid Childs. Somewhere in the short career middle infielder category with Moore and Jennings. 20% more PAs than Hughie. Best 2B of the 1890s.

15. (15) Rube Waddell. Still hanging on the ballot. Lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

Next 10, more or less:
16. Wes Ferrell
17. George J. Burns
18. George Sisler
19. Bob Johnson
20. Jimmy Ryan
21. Cool Papa Bell
22. Hughie Jennings
23. Joe Sewell
24. Tommie Leach
25. Wally Schang

Required disclosures:
Ferrell, Jennings. Both are just off the ballot, and I go back and forth on whether they were great enough for long enough to make it onto a crowded ballot.
   74. sunnyday2 Posted: May 16, 2005 at 12:52 AM (#1339447)
In a pure value world we certainly could elect a lot of 19th century and deadball pitchers, and it would be hard to elect very many pitchers post-1980 or thereabouts.

A timeline is one way to even things out for pitchers, but I really think it's a bad way.

I like Brent's and others' methods of evaluating workloads but how much weight to give to value, and especially the part of value contributed by IP, and how much to give to skill, as measured by effectiveness (ERA+) is going to be a very tough thing to do. I think we are going to be fragmenting all over the lot on P from the fourth quarter of the 20th century.
   75. sunnyday2 Posted: May 16, 2005 at 12:53 AM (#1339450)
And that is not even to mention relievers.
   76. Esteban Rivera Posted: May 16, 2005 at 03:48 AM (#1339620)
1951 Ballot:

1. Jimmie Foxx - Double X is number one with a bullet. Amazing hitter!

2. Joe Cronin - Terrific shortstop both offensively and defensively, but for differing lengths of time.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had.

9. Mule Suttles - Still murky on how good he really was. On what I can safely sort out, this spot seems reasonable

10. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

11. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

12. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

13. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

14. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop

15. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for my top catcher in my consideration set.


Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but can't reach the ballot with the newcomers this year. On the edge of the ballot
   77. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 16, 2005 at 04:48 AM (#1339678)
Another not-terribly-exciting election, but what are you going to do? Bob Johnson provides a challenge for analysis, though. Foxx and Cronin make the PHoM.

1. Jimmie Foxx (new) The first AAGPBL Manager to make my PHoM. One of the all-time great hitters.

2. Joe Cronin (3) Good if non-Jennings peak, a lot of career value, could hit (for a SS), could field (at least some of the time). Just pointing out, we haven’t elected a SS who’s played since Lloyd, or a white SS who’s played since Wagner.

3. Mule Suttles (4) HR's aren't the be-all and end-all, but they make him look like the 2nd best power hitter in Negro League history, which sounds like a HoMer to me. Even if the 1926 MLE is inaccurate, he's got a consistent career with some very good years. Made my PHoM in 1949.

4. Tommy Leach (5) I think I've said before, I have a weakness for what I see as "complete players", without a strong weakness in their argument, and Leach is that way to me. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Among the candidates he has one of the best career arguments. His peak isn't great, but it's certainly respectable. Has more WS than Beckwith's translated estimates in a career of very similar length. Made my PHoM in 1940.

5. John Beckwith (6) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around, not an extremely long career compared to the other Negro League candidates, but it does all add up to a player worthy of induction.

6. Bill Monroe (7) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Seems to have had a longer career than any of the other top 2B candidates. (Childs, Lazzeri, Doyle). Made my PHoM in 1939.

(6A. Ted Lyons)
7. Wes Ferrell (8) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above. Latest look at my pitching analysis shows I might have been overrating him a bit, but for now that just serves to move other people up.

8. Earl Averill (9) His record appears close to the CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead. I do see the argument for being wary of overrepresenting the 30s - I wouldn't put him in my PHoM at this point.

9. Joe Sewell (10) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.

10. Dick Redding (11) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not. I'm also not sure the teens need many more pitchers. I do think he's better than Mendez, but it's not an unshakable conviction.

11. Cupid Childs (12) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Lazzeri, and the latest WARP revisions didn’t help his case. Made my HoM in 1932.

12. George Van Haltren (13) Kind of a dividing line for me, as I can't see putting him in without Carey and Ryan as well. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That just doesn't seem like a HoMer to me.
(12A Max Carey, 12B Bill Terry)

13. Eppa Rixey (18) I still see him behind Lyons and Ferrell, but it's closer than I thought before. He did throw a ton of innings. I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era, though.

14. Cool Papa Bell (14) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and if so, that feels like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation – unlike Beckley, IMO. And his WS Equivalents may not look special, but they add up to a lot

15. Bob Johnson (new) Maybe it's a bit of Shiny New Toy Syndrome, but he's the best of the corner OF (leaving Suttles out of it), and his record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.

16. Biz Mackey (15) I am comfortable that he's ahead of the other catchers on the ballot, but those numbers still aren't that striking. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
17. Jimmy Ryan (16) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.
(17A Sam Thompson)
18. Dick Lundy (17) The MLE’s look very similar to Sewell, with a bit less peak, and James claims he was an excellent defensive player. There were a lot of good SS in the Negro Leagues, and I might be underestimating him.
19. Ben Taylor (19) Maybe I'm underrating 1Bmen, but I'm not yet convinced. A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
20. Jake Beckley. (20) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit. It does seem wrong to have him too far behind Cool Papa Bell, though.
21. Jose Mendez (21) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t quite match up to Redding.
(21A Rube Foster)
22. Gavvy Cravath (30) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
23. George Sisler (31) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years. Still, for the moment his peak seems more impressive than Jennings'.
24. Tony Lazzeri (22) Looks pretty close to Childs to me. Didn't think he'd be this high.
25. Charley Jones (22) A lot of uncertainty about his true value. I can understand why people have him on the ballot, but I'm not that sure.
26. Rube Waddell (25) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
27. Spotswood Poles (24) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good.
28. Hughie Jennings (26) I guess I'm becoming less of a peak voter, but longevity isn't something you can just ignore.
29. Bobby Veach (28) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
30. Clark Griffith (33) I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers, he just lacks the greatness I feel I need to see.
   78. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: May 16, 2005 at 09:25 AM (#1339888)
See previous ballots for more detail.

1. Jimmie Foxx (n/e) - Just a monster. The 2nd greatest 1B of all-time, and closer to the top than most realize.

2. Joe Cronin (3) - A top 10 SS. I think the Jeter comparison is a good one, although Jeter was more OBP/AVG, less power. Alan Trammell with more power.

3. Gavy Cravath (2) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project. Hopefully he gets back on the radar now.

4. Eppa Rixey (4) - With better teammates and no assination of Franz Ferdinand, Rixey would likely have won 300 games. A Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Nierko HoMer.

5. Charley Jones (6) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL.

6. Clark Griffith (7) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity from Griffith?

7. Mule Suttles (8) - Nudged him up in 1949 some after re-reviewing Chris Cobb's MLEs.

8. Jake Beckley (9) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

9. Tommy Leach (10) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

10. George Van Haltren (11) - I don't know what to do with this guy. He could justifiably be anywhere from 3 to 30.

11. John Beckwith (12) - I'm trusting Chris's MLEs here - a little more than I had. I still think it's much more realistic to consider him a 3B that played some SS, than as a SS.

12. Bill Monroe (13) - I still really like this guy.

13. Biz Mackey (14) - After further review he does appear to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.

14. Cool Papa Bell (15) - Awful lot of career value there.

15. Wes Ferrell (16) - Great pitcher and good hitter. For a hitter, not a pitcher. I wish I could get him higher, but I can't say I'd want his career over any of those ranked ahead of him.

Close:

16. Earl Averill (17) - I still think I'm pegging him too low, but don't see why I should move him higher.

17. Wally Schang (18) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.

18. George Sisler (21) - in penalizing him for his 2nd act, I was underrating his first act, though I think it is somewhat overrated by the consensus. I realize that probably sounds confusing as hell.

19. Hughie Jennings (19) - I'm feeling a little more career value oriented of late, Jennings obviously drops on those days. He's down a little more this week.

20. Mike Griffin (20) - a great defensive player. He could hit too. He's been forgotten here . . .

21. Jimmy Ryan (22) - very good player. I've been convinced he should be behind George Van Haltren.

22. Hugh Duffy (23) - not quite as good as the glut above him.

23. Ben Taylor (n/r) - had slipped off my radar. He's pretty close to Beckley, but this is a tight ballot. I ranking him above Roush as a compliment.

24. Joe Sewell (24) - I'd been underrating him. Most of you were overrating him. We're getting closer to a consensus it appears. Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Like say . . . Joe McGinnity. Or say . . . Bill Terry.

25. Dobie Moore (25) - Is this too low? Convince me I should have him higher.

26. Edd Roush (26) - Could be as high as number 9.

27. Vic Willis (27) - I could easily see him much higher on the ballot. Notice the trend?

28. Dick Lundy (28) - Back on the radar. Not as good as Sewell.

29. George Scales (29) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?

30. Lefty Gomez (30) - Very nice career. Not as nice as Ferrell's.
   79. Tiboreau Posted: May 16, 2005 at 12:35 PM (#1339935)
Still in the process of reviewing catchers in relation to other positions while continuing my monthly check-up on pitcher evaluation; I can't wait until Finals are over so I can have some fun!

1. Jimmie Foxx—Second best first baseman in MLB history
2. Joe Cronin—His peak isn't too far off from Jennings; his greater career value then gives him definite HoMer status.
3. John Beckwith—His spot on my ballot is mainly based on Gadfly's inestimable opinion on his hitting and Chris Cobb's Win Shares projections.
4. Mule Suttles—Based on his reputation alone, I originally had Suttles ahead of Simmons & Beckwith. Based on Chris Cobb's projections alone, he would be behind Duffy in the midst of the outfield/first base glut, so I've compromised between the two.
5. Clark Griffith—A good balance between peak and career: His peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn't too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former.
6. Hughie Jennings—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprises of 73.4% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value.
7. Wes Ferrell—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the '30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter.
8. Hugh Duffy—Excellent peak puts Duffy at the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
9. Dobie Moore—Based off projections, estimates, and anecdotes, the Negro Leaguers are the wild cards of my HoM ballot. Called the "best unrecognized player" of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1916 – 20.
10. Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
11. Eppa Rixey—Did not have a great peak, but Eppa was consistently real good for a long time. Drops as a part of the process of reevaluating pitchers. Receives credit for time missed during WWI in 1918 – 19.
12. Edd Roush—Roush nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
13. Earl of Snohomish—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the ever-growing glut of solid outfield candidates. I give Averill credit for his '28 PCL performance.
14. Biz Mackey—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues whose primary value was his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang, a group I’m still evaluating
15. Charley Jones—A legitimate star of the '70s, I give him credit for his blacklisted years, jumping him from just off the ballot to here. 1870s and '80s are well represented, though. In the process of deciding whether his place in his times makes him worthy of merit.
   80. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: May 16, 2005 at 01:27 PM (#1339976)
My home computer crashed Friday night. The technician who came to my house Saturday thinks most of my files may be salvageable, but we won’t know till he puts in a new hard drive. That won’t be for a few days; I ordered one.

All my HOM stuff being inaccessible and me having to do this from work, this ballot’s just pasted from 1950, with Foxx added at the top, everybody else moving up 1 and Welch hopping back on at the end. Bob Johnson looks interesting, but will just have to wait (at least) a year.


1951 ballot:

1. Jimmie Foxx: Inner circle.

2. Joe Cronin: Terrific shortstop offensively and defensively. In the top 5 at his position so far. At the time he was AL president, I didn’t even know or barely knew he’d been a player, and my mental image of him is of a very heavy man in suit and tie.

3. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. 418WS? 377WS? More? Whichever way, great player.

4. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

5. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers.

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. All that in spite of a 107 ERA+! Now that’s pitching in a pinch! : -) (PHOM 1942)

7. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

8. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s. (PHOM 1945)

9. Dick Lundy: Looks roughly comparable to Sewell, longer career, a little more pop, a little less average, great defense. The numbers on his thread could be devastating to his candidacy. They certainly don’t square with expert opinions.

10. Mule Suttles
11. John Beckwith
They’re moving up a bit. I’m reevaluating them.

12. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. 8 STATS AS. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

13. Roger Bresnahan: I dropped him behind Schang for a few years, but Roger’s career suggests brilliance, Wally’s doesn’t. (PHOM 1932)

14. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. 3 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons. Good gray ink. (PHOM 1926)

15. Mickey Welch: Still think he’s worthy, but he’s slipped. (PHOM 1929)

Required explanations:
Rixey: Good for a long time. Behind Lyons, Grimes & Welch among the high-innings guys.
Ferrell: I’ve got about 15 pitchers under serious consideration and he’s in the bottom 5 of those. Low innings; I prefer Mays, Waddell & Gomez among the low-innings guys.
Averill: Hit the lower part of my ballot three years ago. Topnotch outfielder for most of his relatively short career.
Jennings: not enough beyond the peak.

Also in the mix, not necessarily in order: Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1940), Earl Averill, Pie Traynor, Rube Waddell, Tommy Leach, Dick Redding, Larry Doyle, Vic Willis, Carl Mays, Eppa Rixey, Ben Taylor, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Wally Schang, Spots Poles, Edd Roush, Wilbur Cooper, Dave Bancroft, Waite Hoyt.
   81. TomH Posted: May 16, 2005 at 02:02 PM (#1340023)
Joe D, where would Bob Johnson fit in your pile o' OFers?
   82. Thane of Bagarth Posted: May 16, 2005 at 02:24 PM (#1340065)
1951 Ballot:
Note: May 7th changes in BP data not fully accounted for.

1) Jimmie Fox
Not too far behind Gehrig for #2 firstbaseman of all time. I look forward to seeing how Buck Leonard compares to the two of them.

2) Joe Cronin
He’s pretty clearly a HoMer, but I don’t have him all that far ahead of the rest of this ballot.

3) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Highest Career WARP3 (81.2) among eligible pitchers, 2nd highest 5-year PRAR (455).

4) Dizzy Dean
493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. HoM-worthy peak, if you ask me.

5) Ben Taylor
Ben has a highly regarded historical reputation—Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” I see Suttles & Taylor as tied for 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman.

6) Mule Suttles
Generally regarded as the 2nd best NeL 1st baseman. I think he gets somewhat overrated when compared to Taylor because their eras were different, and Mule hit those towering home runs that get longer and longer as the recollections of weathered witnesses weakens. Still, he was an incredible slugger.

7) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

8) John Beckwith
I hope he doesn’t get lost in the mix now that Jud Wilson is in the HoM.

9) Cool Papa Bell
I’m finding it much harder to dismiss Bell’s reputation than it was to dismiss Judy Johnson’s. The longevity factor earns him a ballot spot.

10) Tommy Bridges
75.8 WARP3, 225 WS edge out Warneke, plus I give him the edge in war credit. Not a spectacular peak, but a nice career.

11) Lon Warneke
Better rate stats and peak than Rixey, less career value. This one’s practically a tie.

12) Eppa Rixey
Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+. Highest career PRAR of eligibles (871).

13) Joe Sewell
Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. He’s been treading water in this area of the ballot for a while. I haven’t seen anything that convinces me he should move one way or the other.

14) Earl Averill
Finally adding some value for PCL years. New WARP numbers may move him higher when I get more time to evaluate.

15) Paul Derringer
Derringer lands halfway between Rixey and Waddell in my rankings of pitchers. Slightly better peak than Rixey, but slightly less career value (by WARP3 at least).

------------------------------------------
Next best 15
16) Rube Waddell—the first time he’s been off my ballot since I started voting.
17) Jose Mendez—Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat.
18) Bob Johnson
19) George Sisler
20) Spot Poles—332 estimated WS. Revelations about Bell make me think Poles has been underrated by history.
21) Dick Lundy—Probably underrated as well.
22) Hughie Jennings—I’m still a fan, there’s just a lot of good candidates at this point and Hughie continues to slide down my ballot.
23) Dobie Moore
24) Bill Monroe
25) Urban Shocker
26) Fielder Jones
27) Harry Hooper
28) Gavy Cravath—Margin between Averill at 19 and Gavy at 28 is razor thin.
29) Dolph Camilli—Good hitter with a decent peak, but not outstanding career value. He gets a slight bonus for war credit.
30) Larry French

Other Top 10 not on my ballot
31) Clark Griffith—He’s got ok peak value and ok career value, but not outstanding enough in either to rank higher.
62) Biz Mackey—Somewhere between Santop and Schang, but much closer to Wally.

New Players in Top 100
63) Harlond Clift
70) Curt Davis
96) Rick Ferrell
   83. Al Peterson Posted: May 16, 2005 at 02:40 PM (#1340090)
1951 ballot. Sorry for the lateness so lots of copied comments. Double-X will be going in; who is the other slot going to be?

1. Jimmy Foxx (-). He’s doesn’t need me to trumpet his accomplishments.

2. Joe Cronin (3). Waited a year – still worthy. SS with career length and peak. After him there is a sizeable jump down to…

3. Bob Johnson (-). I’ve tried to reevaluate him and still like him plenty. His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 19 games so he loses some there.

I do credit him a year of Minor League service to a major league equivalent. I feel that his underappreciation spread even to his early years. At a time when BA and flashy speed were king his OBA skills, decent power and solid defensive play were dwarfed.

4. Hugh Duffy (5). Number of runs scored 1889-1894: 144, 161, 134, 125, 147, 160. Second most hits in the 1890’s to Ed Delahanty.

5. Tommy Leach (7). Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Sam Crawford.

6. Edd Roush (4). From Baseballlibrary.com: “June 8, 1920: The Reds' Edd Roush falls asleep in CF during a long argument in the IF. Heinie Groh goes out to wake him, but the ump ejects Roush for delaying the game.” When we wasn’t sleeping he was hitting .300 and playing some pretty good CF.

7. Clark Griffith (6). Another fine control pitcher, his ballot position helped by being one of the better pitchers during the 1890s.

8. Dick Redding (9). Pitched a good long time in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

9. Hughie Jennings (15). A peak to be proud of, especially for a SS. A rough style of play in during his heyday means careers were shorter.

10. John Beckwith (10). Others have provided the argument for him in a more detailed fashion. I’m sold enough to place him here.

11. Earl Averill (8). Highly productive for a centerfielder, he started ML career late after playing semi-pro in Washington state and three years in the PCL.

12. Rube Waddell (12). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.

13. Biz Mackey (13). I’m sticking with the assumption of the NeL being strong at the catching position and Raleigh Biz being among the best.

14. Tony Mullane (14). His constant run-ins with the reserve clause cost him playing time and that magic 300 win total.

15. Eppa Rixey (17). Winningest LHP before some guy named Spahn replaced him. You look at the number of innings pitched and it’s a bunch. But consider: Missed 1918 and part of 1919 due to WWI. 1912 he goes directly from college at UVa to the majors – no small trick since few did it. So he’s probably major league quality at that time and misses out on some innings. In 1913 his season starts late since he returned to UVa to finish some schooling. When adding these non-injury breaks to his playing totals you have a guy with close to 5000 IPs. Wow.

Hanging down below:

16-20:McGraw, Suttles, Mike Griffin, Ryan, Cool Papa Bell
21-25:Poles, Cuyler, Willis, Pete Browning, Sewell
26-30:Mendez, Fielder Jones, Childs, Cicotte, Van Haltren
31-35:Bridges, Sisler, Veach, Roy Thomas, Chance
36-40:Lundy, Burger, Grimes, Carl Mays, Dobie Moore
41-45:Dunlap, Shocker, Camilli, Hooper, George Burns,
46-50:Lefty Gomez, Charley Jones, Ben Taylor, Wes Ferrell, Youngs

New folks:

Paul Derringer doesn’t do too well – unlikely to see his name again. Clift, Chapman, and Ferrell were good but nowhere near enough to get into the HOM. Ben Chapman gets a giant thumbs down for his part in the treatment of Jackie Robinson while he managed the Phillies.

Top 10 Returnees off-ballot:

Suttles, once adjusted for park and position, comes up a little short. Sisler packed a whallop for awhile but not long enough. Ferrell gets hitting bonuses but not too much. He’s not Caruthers since he didn’t play the field in his off days.
   84. Carl G Posted: May 16, 2005 at 02:40 PM (#1340092)
Here goes!

1-Jimmie Foxx-Double X is about as clear cut as you get.
2-Joe Cronin-Best SS on the ballot-Great Peak Great Career
3-John Beckwith-Suttles was a better hitter, but I think Beckwith had more value.
4-Mule Suttles-See Beckwith. Best NegL power hitter not named Gibson
5-Earl Averill-With PCL credit, you can add career value to an already nice peak.
6-Eppa Rixey-Great Long Career; long enough that his near total lack of peak doesn't kill him.
7-Jake Beckley-I've upped in in my re-analysis this week. He's not inner-circle, but definitely 'in' when the back-log-clearing years come around.
8-Dick Redding-One of the great Negro League pitchers
9-Gavvy Cravath-Giving him credit back to '07 gives him pretty solid career numbers to go with the peak.
10-Hughie Jennings-5 phenomenal years. Its enough, I think, but he'll need to wait.
11-Clark Griffith-Long career, solid peak.
12-George Sisler-The peak is hard to ignore.
13-Wes Ferrell-He's not Grove, Hubbell or Lyons, but he's 4th I this period. I upped him in 29-31 for pitching against much tougher offenses than grove did.
14-Wally Schang-I like his offense from the catcher slot.
15-Joe Sewell-Slick fielder, above average hitter. He's in my gray area where I don't know if he's HoM-worthy or not(this started around Sisler and will end several players off my ballot)

I think all of the top10 are on here. I'll re-check the 50 results next to be sure.
   85. Carl G Posted: May 16, 2005 at 02:46 PM (#1340098)
Forgot Biz! And Indian Bob's new so I'll include him too.

20-Indian Bob Johnson-Nice peak. Didn't give him too much credit prior to the Majors though.

21-Biz Mackey-Nice career value. Good, but I'm undecided on his HoM worthiness. My list of guys who I feel maybe HoM worthy but I'm not sure starts at #12 Sisler and goes to about #27 Leach. Mackey is well within that group.
   86. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 16, 2005 at 05:31 PM (#1340483)
I have 43 ballots compiled up to this point. Still missing ballots from: jwinfrey, Patrick W, Kelly from SD, mbd1mbd1, Ken Fischer, Michael Bass, Buddha, KJOK, jimd, Max Parkinson, Ardo, Flaxseed, Stephen and Chris J.
   87. Michael Bass Posted: May 16, 2005 at 06:40 PM (#1340625)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

Finally got around to my reorg. Newest WARP is used, but the main switch ups are a smoother way of incorporating peak/prime, and a new method of giving a catcher bonus.

My PHOM is gone for the moment...too frustrating to deal with when you are reorging.

Non-ballot newbies. Clift is 39th, like his peak, but not enough else. Davis is 51st, same deal as Clift. Everyone else is generally off the map. Esception: Estalalla. I can't honestly say I have any clue how to rank him. I'd love to see a more in-depth study, building on the good work sunnyday has already done.

1. Jimmie Foxx (new) - Is he the second best 1B of all time? Not sure that he isn't a touch overrated, but after Iron Horse, the competition for #2 is basically wide open, so he might well be. I'll say about him what I said about Hornsby: Obvious, duh HOM/HOFer, but perhaps a little overrated by history.

2. Joe Cronin (1) - 119 OPS+ for an excellent defender? Sign me up. Peak, prime, career...all there. As an aside, in my new rankings, Waner would have been ahead of Cronin, so my rantings of two weeks ago seem rather silly.

3. Wes Ferrell (2) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

4. Hughie Jennings (4) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

5. José Méndez (6) - While Waddell is moving down, Méndez is staying steady. Why? Because I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

I think this is the electorate's single most underrated player. This is in part because he does not show up so much in the Negro League awards and polls, because his best work was in Cuba, at a time when all of the best Negro League players were playing in Cuba. Compare Mendez's career to Ed Walsh who, deservingly, cruised into the HOM. Was Mendez's pitching height as high as Walsh's? Likely not, but it wasn't that far off. Some of that gap is closed by Mendez's hitting, which was excellent for a pitcher. Some more of that gap is closed by Mendez having a little value after his peak (when he came back from the injury, he had one solid season left in him), something Walsh had zero of. I'd rate Walsh above Mendez, but so much difference that Walsh flies in on his first ballot while Mendez struggles to break double figure ballots? Doesn't make sense to me.

6. John Beckwith (7) - Liking him more and more, as his offense looks better and better, plus I've upgraded my assessment of his defense some. Don't think he can be below Suttles, at least as good of a hitter, and a much more valuable fielder even if you believe the worst about his defense (and I rate him as about 1/2 3B, 1/2 1B).

7. Dobie Moore (14) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

I'm finally going with my gut here. He did not have a super-long career, but he had a monster peak, and his career was all prime (well, we don't know about the Army years, which he just gets some vague credit for, but you get the picture).

8. Earl Averill (18) - Moving on up; peak, prime, career. Fielding is in question, but I use WARP which thinks much less of his fielding than Win Shares, so I'm not too worried about overranking him. This gives him one year of minor league credit. Very good player.

9. Dizzy Dean (8) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

10. Joe Sewell (9) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit. Moved down a touch, his offense isn't quite good enough to justify higher, but it was good enough to demand a ballot spot.

11. Clark Griffith (12) - Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone. He also pitched in a tougher league than those who immediately preceeded and followed him.

12. Bob Johnson (new) - Little bit like Averill, though no minor league credit for Bob. He could hit, field (though in a corner). No peak like Averill, but career is all prime, with the possibly exception of 1945 if you slice up his stats (I think 1944 was so good that even with a steep discount, that's a strong year).

13. Mule Suttles (11) - Think he's a pretty clear 2nd in the Negro League glut atop our standings. It's not that I don't like him, more than I think he should wait a while. I'd also much rather have had Dobie Moore.

14. Dick Redding (13) - Of similar value to Bill Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. Just not quite the peak, and for all the talk about a long career I don't see that either. Still, very good pitcher on the second tier, right in the mix for those last 50 HOM slots.

15. George Sisler (19) - New WARP does help him, but really my new system gives a full appreciation of his pre-collapse prime, and that's what gets him here. Still like Terry better, BTW, just think the cap is lessened.


16-20: Browning, Mackey, Shocker, Dunlap, Monroe
21-25: Buffinton, Lundy, Williamson, Bartell, F. Jones
26-30: Waddell, Scales, Taylor, Veach, Bond
31-35: Klein, Uhle, Poles, Van Haltren, Warneke
36-40: Berger, Bell, Schalk, Clift, Mays
41-45: Childs, Winters, Camilli, Lazzeri, Cuyler
46-50: Maranville, Griffin, Traynor, Cross, Luque

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Mackey - 17th on my ballot. I love the guy the guy, but he's a hair short of the ballot. Not quite enough offense, I suspect, but I will vote for him someday, when the backlog clears up.


Wow, only 2, and one of the two is 17th! I'm getting way too consensus-oriented, maybe I should be glad Mendez is overlooked. ;)
   88. jimd Posted: May 16, 2005 at 08:25 PM (#1340857)
Ballot for 1951

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my syste (yet again). Maybe next election.

I am now dropping my official support for some candidates as "lost causes". When I am the only supporter two years in a row, that's it, unless someone else brings them back. They will remain mentioned on my ballot, but unofficially as a "lost cause" (e.g., see Fred Dunlap).

1) J. FOXX -- !!.

2) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

3) J. CRONIN -- I don't see a big gap between him and Sewell, but he does rank higher.

4) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

5) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

[lc) F. Dunlap -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Lost cause.]

[lc) B. Veach -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Klein, Berger, Wilson, Averill, etc. Lost cause.]

7) J. BECKWITH -- Belongs.

8) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

[lc) F. Jones -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. Lost cause.]

9) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

10) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

11) M. SUTTLES -- Not Turkey Stearnes but not chopped liver neither.

12) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus gets him on ballot.

13) R. MARANVILLE -- Very long career playing great defense; needs a little more bat.

14) H. DUFFY -- The glut comes back.

15) H. HOOPER -- Ditto.

Just missing the cut are:
19-22) Jimmy Ryan, Dick Redding, Eppa Rixey, Ned Williamson,
23-26) Ray Schalk, Herman Long, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick,
27-30) Wally Schang, Edd Roush, Jose Mendez, Gavy Cravath,
31-34) Earl Averill, Roger Bresnahan, Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith,
35-39) Jake Beckley, Del Pratt, Sam Rice, Jack Quinn, Dizzy Dean
   89. dan b Posted: May 16, 2005 at 08:41 PM (#1340886)
If Ken Burns ever decides to film “Baseball II: The Players of the Hall of Merit,” I suggest that Muddy Waters’ “Long Distance Call” could be used as background music for the George Suttles segment.

Great Muddy Waters reference Brent. :-D
My favorite rendition is on “The Lost Tapes” CD. “Another Muuuuuuuuuuuuule is kickin in my stall”
   90. Max Parkinson Posted: May 16, 2005 at 08:46 PM (#1340904)
1951 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Foxx and Redding)

1. Jimmie Foxx

Pass. Oops, wrong 1st Baseman.

2. Hughie Jennings

All-time greats (such as Foxx) will pass him, but he still holds that elusive (at least for me) “best player in the game” title...

3. John Beckwith

I went with the assumption that Beckwith in the big leagues wouldn't have lasted long at 3rd base, and would've ended up at 1st or left field. Taking Chris Cobb's WS estimates, I compared him to his contemporaries at the bat-first positions of LF,RF and 1B. He falls behind the no-brainers, but was comparable to Sisler and Keeler (not a true contemporary). Assuming average defensive value at 1B or LF, which is no stretch at all, he falls just ahead of Ed and Terry.

I understand that this is a conservative estimate of Beckwith’s defensive capability, but I can point to a number of current big-leaguers who were shortstops at AA or AAA or even for a year or two in the majors who would never be considered ML SSs or even 3rd basemen – Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell, not to mention Delgado and Phelps (catchers, which is a similar proposition of good bat at key defensive positions who got shifted leftward on the spectrum).

4. Dick Redding

Welcome to the MP HoM, Dick!

5. Wes Ferrell

The peak/prime voter in me. I don’t hold his (unsuccessful) comeback attempts against him at all.

6. Mule Suttles

I’m a little concerned about how great he really was (I’m starting to question how often he would have been a first team all-star, what with Gehrig and Foxx, with sometimes Terry and Greenberg playing at the same time...), but here seems good enough for now.

7. Joe Cronin

This might be as low as anyone ranks Cronin, but he was really the best SS for a very short period of time, and was rarely a true MVP candidate.

8. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up to be the best available LF. Fairly large jump for me.

9. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

10. Rube Waddell

A beneficiary of my correction for previously overpenalising poor-hitting and poor-fielding pitchers. He was certainly both. But those K’s…

11. Bill Monroe
12. Earl Averill

I don’t give him much credit for his PCL days, if any. That said, he was certainly the best CF in the big leagues for a stretch, and had some solid peak years.

13. Biz Mackey

The best available catcher (at least this year).

14. Cool Papa Bell
15. Burleigh Grimes

Rixey is 22 – His teams weren’t as bad as some here feel, and I think that there is overcompensation happening. In addition, I give no credit for missed time in 18 and 19. If this is to be challenged, I’ll be happy to provide my reasoning.
Beckley is 56, but as my revisions continue, he could move up a little – not enough to ever make my ballot, I fear.
GVH is 74.
   91. Kelly in SD Posted: May 16, 2005 at 08:54 PM (#1340924)
1951 ballot (part 1)

1. Jimmie “Double X” “The Beast” Foxx: Easily the number 1 for this ballot. Only Gehrig was a better first basemen.

2. Joe Cronin: Shortstop with peak and career. Best shortstop in majors in 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933. Best in AL in 1938. Top 10 player in AL in 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1937, 1938, 1940. Too bad he had that bad 1934-36 stretch.

3. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901: M-i-c, k-e-y, Why, because of the weight of the evidence:
Long career by his era’s standards.
Comparable players: of the 8 most comparable, 6 are in HoM or will be. Radbourn, Keefe, Clarkson, Nichols, Seaver, Plank.
Record against other HoMers
Defensive support lagged behind other 300 game winners as did his offensive support.

4. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906: Great early hitter, short career, makes my ballot even if I reduce his adjusted career by 10%. Best 7 year prime on ballot (adjusting for season length) except for Foxx.
Adjusting for season length, 9 20+ win share seasons, 6 25+, 4 30+. Don’t forget he lost 2 and 1/6 seasons out of the heart of his career over a salary dispute.
Even with 2 + seasons missing, STATS has him as an all-star 5 times, WS 4 times. OPS+ of 149 is bettered only by Browning and Cravath.
Top 10 in his league (including pitchers): 1878, 1879, 1885.
Top 10 in position players in 1883 and 1884.
Best position player in league in 1884, 2nd in 1879, 3rd in 1885
He was blackballed in 1881 and 1882 and missed part of 1880. I see a player who was a top 10 player in his league for 8 straight years.

5. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1919: Moving him in front of Browning because of Duffy’s defense. Yes, I know about WS overrating of centerfield, but Duffy only spent 5 years as a center fielder. He was just a great outfielder. Also, the win shares goes overboard on outfielders in the late 1890s, not the earlier period when Duffy was at his peak.
1890: 2nd best position player Players’ League behind Monte Ward.
1891: 3rd best position player in AA behind Brown and Brouthers. (even giving him a 15% discount leaves him among the top 10 position players in the majors) Only Hamilton and Herman Long had more in the NL.
1892: 5th best behind Brouthers, Dahlen, Childs and E Smith. Ahead of McPhee, Hamilton, Ryan, Connor, Ward, and Burkett.
1893: Best position player tied with HoMer Delahanty. Ahead of Burkett, McPhee, G Davis, Dahlen, Thompson, Kelley, etc.
1894: Nobody better. Ahead of Kelley, Hamilton, G Davis, Jennings, Keeler, Delahanty, Brouthers, Dahlen, etc.
1897: 8th behind 6 HoMers and Jennings. Ahead of Burkett, Lajoie, and Wallace.
Most black ink of any candidate who did not spend their career in Baker Bowl.

6. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921: All-Stars: STATS 8 times, Win Shares 5 times. Adjusted for season length, 5 seasons over 30 win shares. 225 hits per 162 games. Only Sisler is within 10.
Top 10s:
1882: Best position player in AA
1883: 4th best in AA
1884: 5th best in AA
1885: Best position player in AA
1887: 2nd best in AA
1890: 5th best in Players’ League

7. Wes Ferrell : Great peak and prime. His 95 win shares in 3 non-cons seasons is tied w/ Mays for 2nd among eligibles behind Dean’s 99 for post 1920 pitchers. It is higher than 4 HoMers: Plank, Vance, Faber, and Lyons.
His prime score (7 non-cons seasons) is the highest for post-20 eligible pitchers and only Willis is higher post-1893. It is higher than Plank, Coveleski, Lyons, Vance, and Faber and only 5 behind Hubbell.
All-Star: STATS 5 times, Win Shares 6 times. 1 Win Shares Cy Young and MVP.
Among all pitchers:
1929: 4th best in baseball behind Grove, Marberry, Lucas
1930: 2nd best in baseball behind Grove
1931: 3rd best in baseball behind Grove, Earnshaw
1932: 3rd best in baseball behind Grove, Crowder
1933: 16th
1934: 15th
1935: Best pitcher in baseball, tied w/ Ott for second best player in baseball
1936: 4th best in baseball behind Hubbell, Dean, Grove.

8. Mule Suttles: If he was Willie Stargell minus 5%, this is where he would rank. I think that production is an approximation of Suttles’ production. Probably should have put him or Ferrell in my PHOM in 1949 instead of Averill, but...

9. Earl Averill – PHOM 1949: WinShares has him an all-star in the AL 9 times, but only 2 times in the majors. STATS has him a 6 time all-star. Give him credit for his 1928 season in the PCL minus 15% of the MLEs.
Top 10s:
1929: 9th in AL, 15th in majors
1930: 15th in AL, 28th in majors
1931: 6th in AL, 7th in majors
1932: 6th in AL, 11th in majors
1933: 7th in AL, 16th in majors
1934: 3rd in AL, 6th in majors
1935: 14th in AL, 28th in majors
1936: 5th in AL, 12th in majors
1937: 9th in AL, 22nd in majors
1938: 8th in AL, 14th in majors

10. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942: 2 times best pitcher, 2 times second best pitcher in league. Poor record in big games with the Pirates though.
Best pitcher in majors in 1899, best in NL in 1901 (Young is better).
Top10s:
1898: 9th best pitcher, 21st best player.
1899: 1st in pitching, 2nd best player (Delahanty)
1901: 1st in NL in pitching, 3rd in NL overall, 2nd in majors in pitching, 5th overall (Lajoie, Young, Burkett, Wagner.)
1902: 2nd in NL in pitching, 4th in NL overall, 6th in majors in pitching, 9th overall (Young, Wagner, Waddell, Jack Taylor, Delahanty, Beaumont, Powell, Donahue)
1903: 9th in pitching in NL
1906: 2nd in pitching NL, 8th in NL overall, 3rd in majors in pitching, 13th overall
1907: 9th in pitching in NL
1909: 5th in pitching in NL, 13th in NL overall, 7th in majors in pitching, 23rd overall.
   92. Kelly in SD Posted: May 16, 2005 at 09:00 PM (#1340940)
There is something funky with the site. I only hit submit once, got a timed out error and hit refresh. Odd.

Part 2
Spots 11 through 25 are hair-thin close. Will change every year depending on what intangible I am emphasizing. The differences producing by my system are so close as to be worthless.

11. Biz Mackey: Long career catcher with a bonus for play at catcher. Does not receive the full catcher bonus because time at other positions. I think the MLEs may be underrating him a bit in his poorer seasons, but I cannot see there is enough to move him higher.

12. John Beckwith: I don’t think he was Hornsby, because Hornsby was outlier good. Beckwith may have had raw power, but lots of players have raw power. I have seen many comparisons to Dick Allen. Allen is going to be a huge can of worms in the 1980s elections so I am not going to open that can now. But Allen had a peak and prime that is rarely seen. Assuming Beckwith had a comparable, though lower, peak and prime, and taking into account the MLEs, Beckwith slots in here. If his peak should be increased, he could move up some spots.

13. George Burns – PHOM 1938: Great leadoff hitter. Great 7-year prime. Great black and grey ink. Took a huge number of walks for the era and scored a lot of runs. WS all-star in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1917, 1918, 1919. Major league all-star 1914, 1917, 1919.
Top 10s:
1913: 15th in NL, 34th in majors.
1914: 2nd in NL, 6th in majors.
1915: 9th in NL, 18th in majors.
1916: 11th in NL, 23rd in majors.
1917: 4th in NL, 8th in majors.
1918: 6th in NL, 15th in majors.
1919: 2nd in NL, 3rd in majors.
1920: 11th in NL, 26th in majors.
1921: 17th in NL, 38th in majors.
1922: 24th in NL

14. Edd Roush – PHOM 1940: 5 gold gloves by win shares. Too similar to Burns for one to be on the ballot and one not. WS all-star in league in 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1923. Major league all-star in 1919, 1920.
Top 10s
1917: 5th in NL among all players, 13th in majors.
1918: 9th in NL, 19th in majors.
1919: 1st in NL, 2nd in majors.
1920: 3rd in NL, 8th in majors.
1923: 4th in NL, 10th in majors.
1924: 19th in NL, 39th in majors.
1925: 13th in NL, 21st in majors.
1926: 13th in NL, 26th in majors.

15. Tommy Leach: Decided to go with the versatility / great fielding and good hitting. Next year, it could be GVH, Grimes, Cooper, Poles, Moore, Mendez, Jennings or Cravath.

Other top 10s or popular players:
Rixey: Bulk careers do not do well in my system. Actually, my system was designed to give less of a reward to long careers that lack a high prime and peak. I see the value in Don Sutton, but I think Steve Carlton is more valuable.
Also, I was going over the BJHBA and the NBJHBA and there is a comment that Rixey joined the military after the 1917 season to spite the Phillies because they sold Alexander to the Cubs. Does anyone know the truth to this? If he joined the military because he was pissed off, I don't know if I would give any WWI credit.

Jennings: Close, in the ballot consideration set. Career is not long, but peak is very high though not historic.

None of the other newbies are top 40 players in my scheme.
   93. Kelly in SD Posted: May 16, 2005 at 09:13 PM (#1340972)
Gadfly mentioned some of the difficulty with using win shares because of the amount of pitcher credit is gradually shrinking throughout baseball history. My personal solution is use the win shares to compare various pitchers from a "cohort" group to a "perfect pitcher" from the era.
For example, for pre-1893 pitchers, I crossed Radbourn's peak and rate with Keefe's career and compared the era's pitchers to this mark.
For 1893-early 1920s, cross Walter Johnson with Cy Young.
For post early 1920s, I reduced the previous "perfect" score to account for the smaller number of innings pitched in-season.
So far, the pitchers that have been enshrined in the HoM have all graded out as better than or among the very best of the rest (except for Coveleski who doesn't have the length).
I am still trying to decide if I should break the post-1920 era into smaller groups, and if so, where? 1960? 1990?
It's not perfect, especially for crossover players like Rixey, Cooper, Mays, Grimes, and Coveleski, but it helps.
   94. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 16, 2005 at 09:17 PM (#1340981)
Brent,

I used a similar method to even out pitchers. Now for the first time I will unleash its evil to the world! (I certainly never claimed I was a good doctor!!!---muah ha ha!!!!)

[warning meatdiscursive methodology to follow]

Because I'm a WS guy, that's my starting point. To figure out context, I looked at every MLB season and averaged the leading and fifth-place WS leaders among SP. Turns out that the historically average season yields a first-place WS total of about 30 and a fifth-place WS total of about 21. So I take 51 as the basic number "conversion factor," if you will.

Then to determine how to convert each season toward an historical WS norm, first I create rolling five-year averages, centered on the season in question, for both first and fifth place WS totals, then I divide 51 by the sum of the rolling averages of the first and fifth place totals.

That's the conversion factor for a given season, and it's simple enough to adjust a pitcher's total up and down through multiplication. I don't adjust for league quality or schedule because the sweep of this "conversion" is pretty grand.

It's not a perfect system by any means, but it helps me start sifting through pitchers a little more carefully, and it gives me a very distinct impression of the shape of their careers. It also spits back results that make sense intuitivuely. Pedro now looks like this from best to worst:

34
31
28
25
24
24
20
18
17
15
14
13
1
====
263 total
93 3-peak
141 5-peak
234 10-prime
263 extended prime
while Tony Mullane looks like

31
29
24
19
18
17
17
17
16
15
14
5
0
====
222 total
84 3-peak
122 5-peak
203 10-prime
222 extended prime

To integrate pitchers into my hitting lists, I figured out the difference between a typical 1st and 5th finish in WS for both hitters and pitchers. The difference is about 20% in favor of hitters, so I just multiply all the pitching total by 1.2 to get a rough cut at how a pitcher stacks up to a hitter.

By that method, Pedro looks like this pre-2005
315 3total
112 3-peak
170 5-peak
281 10-prime
315 extended prime.

This shows Pedro to be better candidates than high-peak/medium-career-length hitters like Geo Burns, Joe Medwick, Hugh Duffy, and on par with hitters like Dick Allen, HR Baker, and Joe Jackson.

Anyway, any suggestions for improvements are always welcomed.
   95. KJOK Posted: May 16, 2005 at 11:09 PM (#1341175)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. JIMMIE FOXX, 1B. .743 OWP. 700 RCAP. 9,670 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Yes, he could even field a little.

2. JOE CRONIN, SS. .583 OWP. 431 RCAP. 8,838 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. In Top 5 of MLB SS post-19th century.

3. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. . Estimated 164 OPS+ over 7,419 estimated PA’s, and played left side infield. THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

4. DICK LUNDY, SS. Estimated 122 OPS+ over 9,684 PA’s with at least VERY GOOD defense puts him ahead of Sewell. Comp is close to Joe Cronin.

5. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

6. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane, except for Santop.

7. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

8. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

9. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

10. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

11. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

12. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

13. MULE SUTTLES, LF/1B. MLE of .366 OBP and .538 SLG over 10,163 PAs. After adjusting for parks and eras, I think he’s very close to Ben Taylor offensively, but a little less valuable defensively.

14. BIZ MACKEY, C. . MLE of .359 OBP and .393 SLG. A .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher had to be a very valuable player.

15. EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP. 321 RCAP. 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp. Better than Bob Johnson by a little.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:
BOB JOHNSON, LF. .651 OWP. 319 RCAP. 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Goes to near head of the class of OF glut, but falls just short of ballot.

HARLOND CLIFT, 3B. .566 OWP. 209 RCAP. 6,894 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just needs a little longer career to make the ballot.

RICK FERRELL, C. .480 OWP. 110 RCAP. 7,072 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Nothing special offensively or defensively.

RETURNEES:

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not quite as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Ben Taylor as best early century 1st baseman due to playing time.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior. Even Pennants Added likes Tiernan.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.
   96. Patrick W Posted: May 16, 2005 at 11:24 PM (#1341209)
Trying to get in under the bell. The comments need a massive rewrite by this point, but will have to suffice for now.

1. Jimmy Foxx (n/a), Phila. (A), 1B (’25-’45) (1951) – Pretty easy #1.
2. Mule Suttles (2), St.L - Nwk. (--), 1B / LF (‘23-‘42) (1946) – Just loses out on all the peak measures to Carl, but my calc of his career value is just above Hubbell. Hubbell’s sub-replacement hitting gives Suttles the ’49 crown.
3. Joe Cronin (3), Wash. - Bost. (A), SS (’28-’44) (1950) – With a nice Rate2 of 108 during his peak years in WAS (what happened in BOS those first 3 years?!), and a career EQA of 0.286, Cronin rates very well in my system.
--. Jud Wilson, Balt. (--), 3B / 1B (’22-’38) (1951)
4. John Beckwith (4), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Appears to me to rank solidly among banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson). I estimate an EQA of 0.330 from the MLE’s. Short career, but definitely worthy by the numbers.
--. Martin Dihigo, Cuba (--), RF / P (’24-’45) –
5. Biz Mackey (5), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – Catcher bonus helps him immensely of course (he’d be in Dick Bartell territory w/out); Santop is obviously the better rate player, but Mackey’s guesstimated 2300 more AB’s closes the race to a photo finish. I think he’ll go in pretty soon on my ballot, but I’ll take Suttles, Wilson and Beckwith first.
6. Cool Papa Bell (6), St.L (--), CF (’24-’42) – Bid McPhee is the comp for me. My guestimate is that Bell has the better EQA and longer career. The A+ fielding is at a different (and lesser) position but McPhee was at the top of my ballot, and Bell would be too – except I’d first take the guys ahead of him on this list.
7. Joe Sewell (8), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – On a second look, I can’t justify Sewell over Cool Papa Bell.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) –
8. Eppa Rixey (13), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings.
9. Bob Johnson (n/a), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume. Could move up
10. George Van Haltren (9), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Leads the pack from the 90s holdovers.
11. Jimmy Ryan (10), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Don’t really understand the lack of support.
12. Dick Lundy (11), Atlantic Cty (--), SS (’16-’34) – I see a comparison here with Frank Grant. Those who liked Grant should see something worthy in Lundy. As such, my guess is he makes the P-Hall and falls short of the group HOM.
13. Tommy Bridges (12), Detr. (A), SP (’31-’43) – Urban Shocker with close to 400 more IP.
14. Ben Taylor (14), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
15. Jake Beckley (15), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.


Wes Ferrell – Larry French almost jumps him on the list. He drops off the in favor of 3 rookies. He’ll be under consideration for a long while.
Earl Averill – I think Averill only tops Van Haltren with a steep timeline adjustment. My system tries to counteract that somewhat while still acknowledging that competition improves over time. I see Earl as close to (but below) the Beckley / Hooper / F.Jones group among OF/1B. It’s a judgment call, but I’ll stay with the old timers over the rookie.
Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to overcome the career guys.

Ferrell, Averill & Jennings were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   97. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 17, 2005 at 12:00 AM (#1341334)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.

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