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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

1951 Ballot Discussion

1951 (May 8)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

435 134.9 1927 Jimmie Foxx-1B (1967)
287 95.5 1933 Bob Johnson-LF (1982)
216 77.5 1934 Harlond Clift-3B (1992)
233 71.6 1930 Ben Chapman-CF/RF (1993)
231 70.0 1931 Paul Derringer-P (1987)
224 69.9 1934 Dolph Camilli-1B (1997)
206 73.4 1929 Rick Ferrell-C (1995)
203 60.8 1930 Tony Cuccinello-2B (1995)
165 63.8 1934 Curt Davis-P (1965)
178 48.6 1931 Gee Walker-LF (1981)
147 55.6 1932 Van Mungo-P (1985)
135 50.1 1930 Gus Mancuso-C (1984)
149 44.9 1933 Pete Fox-RF (1966)
135 45.7 1937 Jim Tobin-P (1969)
146 41.2 1936 Mike Kreevich-CF (1994)
119 37.5 1930 Whit Wyatt-P (1999)
115 33.1 1936 Gene Moore-RF (1978)
102 35.0 1936 Max Butcher-P (1957)
105 33.8 1939 Vern Kennedy-P (1993)
084 23.0 1939 Bobby Estalella-CF/LF (1991)

1951 (May 8)—elect 2
HF% Career Name-pos (born) BJ – MVP - All-Star

24% 30-45 Jimmy Crutchfield-OF (1910) #7 cf - 0 - 1*
04% 21-48 Larry Brown-C (1905) #9 c - 0 - 1*
04% 32-46 Alex Radcliffe-3B(1905) #8 3b - 0 - 2*
00% 31-47 Felton Snow-3B (1905)0 - 3*

Players Passing Away in 1950

HoMers
Age Elected

80 1915 Bill Dahlen-SS
63 1936 Pete Alexander-P

Candidates
Age Eligible

79 1905 Bill Lange-CF
65 1927 Slim Sallee-P
65 1928 Art Fletcher-SS
51 1944 Kiki Cuyler-RF/CF

Kudos to Dan and Chris for the lists!

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2005 at 12:19 AM | 142 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 
   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2005 at 12:27 AM (#1305684)
hot topics
   2. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: May 03, 2005 at 12:35 AM (#1305715)
Paul Derringer

Curt Davis

Anyone know anything about Curt Davis's PCL years?
   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2005 at 12:39 AM (#1305727)
Besides Jimmie Foxx, Sammy T. Hughes, Bob Johnson, Harlond Clift, Josh Gibson, Chet Brewer, Sam Bankhead and Double Duty Radcliffe, are there any other threads needed?
   4. sydhe Posted: May 03, 2005 at 01:16 AM (#1305856)
I'd say Foxx has a pretty good shot. :)

Davis had an interesting career, although he's hardly hallworthy.
   5. Ardo Posted: May 03, 2005 at 01:19 AM (#1305864)
It's getting hard to keep track of the backlog. The number of Very Good players keeps increasing, so I'm going through each position systematically.

Look at the four players who "dropped out" of the 1950 ballot: Bartell, Cuyler, Hooper, and Lazzeri. Three of them are in the HoF. All four players produced at an above-average level for a decade. None of them are really HoM-quality, but we can't quite ignore them.

"/" indicates a razor-wire gap, "//" a larger gap, and "///" a chasm.

C: Schang/McGuire/Mackey//Bresnahan/R. Ferrell///Schalk.

Notes: Bresnahan has too few games caught and a short career as-is. Deacon McGuire is HUGELY underrated, given the short catching careers of the 1890's.

1B: Foxx///Beckley/Sisler/Chance//Taylor/Dunlap//Konetchy.

Notes: If you go to "Progressive" leaders on BBRef, Beckley was the active MLB leader in hits, doubles, triples, home runs, runs, and RBI at some time. That's a feat that Rusty Staub or Harold Baines never came close to achieving.

2B: Scales/Childs/Doyle/Lazzeri//Monroe.

Notes: Truly razor-wire. Doyle has better counting stats than Childs, but in a lesser quality league. Lazzeri is surprisingly comparable to Doyle. Scales could be first or fourth; from what little I know, he ranks a squeak ahead of Childs.

SS: Cronin//Sewell/Lundy//Jennings/Moore//Maranville/Bartell///Tinker, Long, Bush, etc.

Notes: I had been ranking Lundy based on a 112 OPS+ equivalent (KJOK's initial 122, minus ten). He's been shown to be closer to 102, so he slips behind Sewell.

Jennings had five good years at SS (1894-98). There's a big difference between 5 and 7 good years (as we see from Chance and Sisler). He's a long way from the top of my ballot.

3B: Beckwith//Leach/Traynor/Williamson//Clift/McGraw.

Notes: Leach slips b/c of his shift to CF and league quality. Williamson is 4th, due to timelining, but deserves a fresh look (he was 10th in the initial HoM election; Ezra Sutton, who he compares well with, was 7th). McGraw's career length and fielding are insufficient.

Later this week: the corner OFs, CFs, and Ps.
   6. Mike Webber Posted: May 03, 2005 at 02:36 AM (#1306246)
Calling Gadfly -

Since MLEs and OPS+ and so forth for Negro League Player are becoming more of a focus of this group, could you update us on the status/results of all the work Clark and Lester did on Negro League stats? I saw some NeL leaders at the last SABR convention, but is the project "complete"? (Meaning as complete as it is going to get.) Will any results ever be published?

Also, could you comment in way that is unlikely to get you sued about the quality of the stats from Negro Leaguers that is availible in Macmillan?

I have led to believe that most people took those with a grain of salt - a grain the size of Mt. Etna.
   7. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:06 AM (#1306325)
Besides Jimmie Foxx, Sammy T. Hughes, Bob Johnson, Harlond Clift, Josh Gibson, Chet Brewer, Sam Bankhead and Double Duty Radcliffe, are there any other threads needed?

I'd like to see a thread about Curt Davis. No, he doesn't look like a HoM'r based solely on his numbers at b-ref, but I'd like to find out for sure & I think giving him his own thread might help. How good was he in the PCL? Just how long was he that good? . . . He's the sort of guy I'd like to find out about in the HoM, put it that way.
   8. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:16 AM (#1306352)
Greetings from sunny San Antone; it's the HOM Roadshow with Dr. Chaleeko!

Sure Foxx will sail on in, but the group of candidates on this ballot is filled with lots of interesting little questions, like:

-What about Curt Davis's PCL years? Does war-time league-quality deduction have a major effect on his candidacy?

-Does Bob Johnson get minor league credits? Does war-time league-quality deduction have a major effect on his candidacy?

-Does Bobby Estalella need translations for any NgL, international, or minor league play?

-Is Sammy T. Hughes just another 2B backlogger?

-Is Rick Ferrell even worth worrying about or is he Ray Schalk's 1930s-1940s counterpart?

Inquiring minds want to know.... Especially Joe Cronin's inquiring mind.

Oh, and Karlmagnus, I have to tell you that while eating my sausage and bacon at my hotel's breakfast buffet, I was reminded of your comment about Joe Cronin's pig's breakfast as Boston manager. Good on ya!
   9. Brent Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:38 AM (#1306412)
Does Bobby Estalella need translations for any NgL, international, or minor league play?

I'd say probably not. Estalella's Cuban record is good but not outstanding. The Pride of Havana lists Estalella among the third tier of Cuban League stars of the 1930s, with the first tier being Dihigo and the second tier consisting of Lázaro Salazar, Ramón Bragaña, Luis Tiant, Santos Amaro, and Silvio García.
   10. PhillyBooster Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:49 AM (#1306432)

Anyone know anything about Curt Davis's PCL years?


Assumedly I do, but the books at work, and I'm in depositions all day tomorrow. I'll try to post them on Wednesday.
   11. DavidFoss Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:56 AM (#1306458)
Preliminary big three for me:

1. Foxx
2. Cronin
3. Beckwith

Everyone else lags behind and moves up a slot from last week.

I'll re-ask a question that OCF asked last week. Basically, its Beckwith vs. Suttles. I have Beckwith several slots ahead of Suttles. His bat is historically good for an SS-3B (even for a mediocre fielder). Suttles' bat is good enough to make my ballot, but for a OF-1B type (also mediocre fielding) its not enough to raise him up above the entire backlog.

Suttles is leading Beckwith at the moment, why? The big year (1926)? Career length? Just curious.
   12. KJOK Posted: May 03, 2005 at 07:29 AM (#1306702)
...could you update us on the status/results of all the work Clark and Lester did on Negro League stats? I saw some NeL leaders at the last SABR convention, but is the project "complete"? (Meaning as complete as it is going to get.) Will any results ever be published?

This is an email response I received on 4/29 from Larry Lester in response to the same question:


Kevin: Currently, there is no expected date for
publication. We are still editing massive amounts of data.
Stay tune for an update.
Larry
   13. Kelly in SD Posted: May 03, 2005 at 10:12 AM (#1306790)
4-part 1950 recap. part 1.

1950 RECAP

AL top 15 or so position players:
Rizzuto    ss  35
Berra      2   32
Doby       of  30
Rosen      5   29
J DiMaggio of  29
Kell       5   26
H Evers    of  26
Wertz      of  26
Priddy     4   24
Yost       5   24
D DiMaggio of  24
Doerr      4   23
Stephens   6   22
Groth      of  22
Noren      of  22


NL top 15 or so position players:
Musial      of  32
Torgeson    3   32
Stanky      4   30
Robinson    4   29
S Gordon    of  29
Snider      of  29
Elliott     5   27
Pafko       of  27
Ennis       of  26
H Thompson  5   23
Ashburn     of  23
Kiner       of  23
Campanella  2   22
Seminick    2   22
Westrum     2   22
P Jones     5   22
Jethroe     of  22


AL top 10 or so pitchers:
Garver     25
Houtteman  25
Lemon      25
Parnell    22
Wynn       21
Hutchison  21
Lopat      20
Feller     19
Raschi     18


NL top 10 or so pitchers:
Roberts    26
Blackwell  26
Jansen     25
Konstanty  23
Newcombe   22
Spahn      21
Roe        21
Maglie     21
Pollet     19
Bickford   18


League All-Star teams by Win Shares:
AL then NL
C: Berra // Campanella, Seminick, Westrum
1B: Dropo // Torgeson
2B: Priddy // Stanky
3B: Rosen // Elliott
SS: Rizzuto // Reese
OF: Doby // Musial
J DiMaggio // S Gordon
H Evers, Vertz // Snider
P: Garver // Roberts
Houtteman // Blackwell
Lemon // Jansen
Parnell // Konstanty

Gold Gloves by Win Shares:
AL, then NL (position’s best in ALL CAPS)
C: Jim Hegan // WES WESTRUM
1B: Luke Easter // EDDIE “Ouch, I been shot” WAITKUS
2B: JERRY PRIDDY // Red Schoendienst
3B: AL ROSEN // Puddin’ Head Jones
SS: PHIL RIZZUTO // Granny Hamner (Rizzuto most defensive win shares, 11.32, by .32 over Priddy)
OF: Irv Noren // RICHIE ASHBURN
Dom DiMaggio // Bobby Thomson
Joe DiMaggio // Andy Pafko

Rizzuto’s performance is the best in baseball between 1942 when Reese had 11.67 defensive win shares and 1978 when Burleson has 11.42. It is still the 3rd highest by a shortstop since 1942. Burleson in 1979 had 11.75 and Orlando Cabrera in 2001 had 13.47. Among all positions since 1942, the following players had more than Rizzuto’s 11.32: Ron Karkovice – 1993 – 11.60, Ivan Rodriguez – 1996 – 11.56 and 1999 – 11.95, Bill Mazeroski – 1962 – 11.64, Burleson twice – 11.42, 11.75, Orlando Cabrera’s 13.47, and Devon White – 1991 – 11.51.

One other note about defensive win shares that I don’t know where to post. As of 2001, the most valuable defensive season of all time was Cabrera in 2001 with 13.47 defensive win shares, playing shortstop. He just passed Maranville’s 13.35 in 1914 and Peckinpaugh’s 13.09 in 1924. I think those are the only seasons over 13.

MVP (by the writers, by Win Shares)
AL: Phil Rizzuto, Rizzuto
NL: Jim Konstanty, tie: Stan Musial and Earl Torgeson

Retro Cy Young (by STATS, by WinShares)
AL: Bob Lemon, tie: Ned Garver, Art Houtteman, Bob Lemon
NL: Jim Konstanty, tie: Robin Roberts, Ewell Blackwell

Some numbers:
Garver: 13-18, 3.39 era, 260 IP, 37 G 31 GS 22 CG, 264 hits 108 bb 85 k, team w/o him 45-78.
Houtteman: 19-12, 3.54 era, 274 IP, 41 G 34 GS 21 CG, 257 hits 99 bb 88 k, team w/o him 76-47.
Lemon: 23-11, 3.84, 288 IP, 44 g 37gs 22 cg, 281 hits 146 bb 170 k, team w/o him 69-51.

Blackwell: 17-15, 2.97, 261 IP, 40g 32gs 18cg, 203 hits 112 bb 188k, team w/o him 49-72
Roberts: 20-11, 3.02, 304 IP, 40g 39gs 21cg, 282 hits 77 bb 146k, team w/o him 71-52

Rookie of the Year (by the writers, by Win Shares)
AL: Walt Dropo, Dropo
NL: Sam Jethroe, Jethroe

Statistical achievements:
There was one no-hitter: Vern Bickford against Brooklyn
Five players hit for the cycle:
George Kell, Ralph Kiner, Roy Smalley, Elmer Valo, and Hoot Evers.
Gil Hodges hit 4 Homeruns
A Whole Mess O’ People hit 3 homeruns:
Duke Snider, Bobby Doerr, Wes Westrum, Andy Pafko, Larry Doby, Roy Campanella, Hank Sauer, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, Tommy Brown, and Gus Zernial.
I assume this is a coincidence, but Larry Doby’s 3 homer game, Andy Pafko’s 3 homer game and Elmer Valo’s cycle were all on August 2.
Joe DiMaggio becomes first player to have 3 homer game in Griffith Stadium.
   14. Kelly in SD Posted: May 03, 2005 at 10:29 AM (#1306798)
1950 Recap, part 2 of 4:

Team Information:
AL: four teams between 98 and 92 wins (NY, Det, Bos, Cle) then Washington 25 games back with 67, then 7 more to Chicago with only 60, then St Louis with 58, and the As in last with 52.
Boston scored the most runs of any team, 1027, since the 1936 Yankees, and were the only team in 63 years, to break 1000: 1936 Yankees to 1999 Cleveland Indians.
Washington and Philly led the league in steals with 42 while the Red Sox led the league in percentage at 65% - 32 steals and 17 caught.
Detroit led the league with 110 sacrifices (I think that includes SF, but I am not sure.) but still grounded into the second most double plays, 162.
I am not sure how this balances out, but in the team batting totals, the average AL team hit into 148 double plays while in the defensive stats, the average team turned 181 double plays. Were there a lot of players trying to advance on flyballs? Lineouts with aggressive baserunners? Strike ‘Em-Out, Throw-‘Em-Out double plays? That is one of those double plays every 5 games for every team.
Boston took advantage of the A’s and Browns, finishing 19-3 against each of them for the most wins against one team in the league.

Boston was again the best home team, but lost the pennant to a team with the best road record for the third straight year. They led the league in runs scored at home by 185 over the Yankees (625 to 440) but were only the fourth highest scoring team on the road.

Washington had the toughest home run park, surprise, but the park played neutral for runs.
The average team walked over 100 times more than it struck out.
League averages: .271 BA, .356 OBP, .402 SLG
Oddity: St. Louis played 80 games on the road and Detroit played 80 at home instead of the usual 77. Anyone know why?

Pythagorean Questions:
New York: 2 games better
Detroit: 7 games better
Boston: even
Cleveland: even
Washington: 1 game better
Chicago: 4 games worse
St Louis: 1 game better
Philadelphia: 4 games worse

Attendance:
New York: 2,081,000
Detroit: 1,951,000
Cleveland: 1,727,000
Boston: 1,344,000
Chicago: 781,000
Washington: 700,000
Philadelphia: 310,000
St Louis: 247,000


NL Team Stuff:
The teams were much more evenly spread out: Phillies 91, Dodgers 89, Giants 86, Braves 83, Cardinals 78, Reds 66, Cubs 64, Pirates 57.

For the third straight year, the team with the best road record finished a step ahead of the team with the best home record. Brooklyn lost to St Louis in ’48, St Louis lost to Brooklyn in ’49, and Brooklyn lost to Philly this year.
Showing the distorting effects of Ebbets Field, Brooklyn led the league in runs scored at home and led the league in fewest runs allowed on the road.

In contrast to the AL, NL teams struck out 59 more times than they walked. In combination with the lower batting average, the average team grounded into only 131 double plays.
League Averages: .261 BA, .336 OBP, .401. If the AL is the walking league, the NL is the power league.
Brooklyn took advantage of Pittsburgh, going 19-3, winning the most games against one opponent. Philly won 18 against Cinci.

Pythagorean Questions:
Philadelphia: 4 games better
Brooklyn: 1 game better
New York: even
Boston: 1 game better
St Louis: 1 game worse
Cincinnati: 2 games worse
Chicago: even
Pittsburgh: 4 games worse

Attendance:
Philadelphia: 1,217,000
Brooklyn: 1,186,000
Pittsburgh: 1,166,000
Chicago: 1,166,000
St Louis: 1,093,000
New York: 1,009,000
Boston: 944,000
Cincinnati: 539,000

Postscript about the double plays. I checked a couple of years in the 1980s and there was the same discrepancy. I guess I just didn’t realize there were so many non-GIDP each year.

Integration Activity:
Sam Jethroe become the first black player for the Boston Braves. Only takes the Red Sox 9 more years and the Braves to have left town before they integrate. An example of the Red Sox “questionable” attitudes toward blacks: They release Piper Davis from their Scranton, Eastern League team when he is leading the league in hitting.
J. B. Martin, president of the Chicago American Giants, instructs his manager to sign white players in an effort to combat raids by the majors.
Later that year, police bar 3 white players on the Giants from playing for the Giants against the Birmingham Black Barons.
Yankees sign first black players, Elston Howard and Frank Barnes. Howard makes the majors in only 4 ½ years, debuting in 1955.
   15. Kelly in SD Posted: May 03, 2005 at 10:33 AM (#1306800)
1950 Recap part 3

Interesting achievements and dates:
Charlie Grimm resigns as VP of Cubs to take a job managing Dallas in the Texas League. I bet the 3 yr, 90k contract helped.
Indians fire a coach b/c his son signed with the Red Sox, George Susce.
Bob Feller “voluntarily” reduces salary from $65k to $45k.
Bonus Baby Time: Paul Pettit is signed for $100k by the Pirates. $ per win for his major league career: $100k as he wins once.
From the Where Were the Queer Eye Guys Dept: The Hollywood Stars open the season with uniform calling for shorts.
On Opening Day in Wash, DC, Pres Truman throws out a first pitch twice, left- and right-handed then sits through the rain to watch the entire game.
The Cards have the first Opening Night.
The Red Sox go up 9-0 over the Yankees at Fenway, before the Yankees come back to outscore the Sox 15 – 1 to win 15-10.
Red Sox beat the A’s in game one of a DH, 19-0, their third 10 run game in 13 April games.
Walt Dropo is brought up May 1, still has time to lead the league in RBI.
Vic Raschi balks 4 times in one game, still beats the White Sox.
The next day, the Yanks lose 15-0 to the White Sox.
Dick Sisler has 8 hits in a row.
Another game with both teams scoring at least 10, Bos beats Cinci 15-11.
Another 15 run shut out, St Louis Cards over Braves, 15-0, the next day.
Abraham Ribicoff, H-Conn, proposes National Baseball Day.
Dodgers beat Max Lanier for the first time since 1943.
Tom Glaviano makes errors on 3 straight plays to let in 4 runs in the 9th as the Dodgers come back for a 9-8 win.
Three Dodgers throw 9-2/3 no-hit innings of relief in an 11 inning win.
Jerry Priddy starts 5 double plays in the first 5 innings.
More Bonus Baby Time: Bill MacDonald debuts with the Pirates. Wins 9 games in career.
Red Sox win another double 10 run games, 15-12.
Gerry Staley wins both ends of a doubleheader in relief for the second time in his career. First ever to do that.
Dept of Good Starts: the White Sox start 8-22, the Browns start 8-25.
Walt Dropo hits 10 homers in his first month in the majors.
Harry Dorish becomes the last pitcher to steal home this century as he wins 9-3.
Red Sox score at least 10 runs in 6 of 7 games: 11-5, 11-9, 17-7, 12-0, 4-8, 20-4, 29-4. That is 104 runs in 7 games, outscoring opponents 104 – 37. WOW.
In the 29 run game, among a host of wild statistical lines, leadoff hitter Clyde Vollmer becomes the only hitter (in “modern times”??) to bat 8 times in 8 innings.
Cardinals battle the Commissioner’s Office over their right to have night games on Sunday.
On June 13, all Red Sox regulars are hitting over .300.
Brooklyn – Pittsburgh game runs into curfew with the Dodgers up 19-14. It is finished 2 months later.
Johnny Mize hits 25 homers with 72 RBI in 90 games for Yankees.
Joe DiMaggio gets 2000th career hit.
Cardinals shut out in a doubleheader for first time in 17 years.
The Tigers beat the Yankees 10-9 as all runs are scored on 11 homeruns.
Red Sox defeat the A’s 22-14, the highest scoring game in AL history (so far...). Break their own 49 year old record.
Whitey Ford makes major league debut.
Bob Feller wins 200th game.
Another 15 run shutout, Cubs over Reds 16-0.
Sid Gordon ties then record with four grand slams in one year.
In five innings, Tommy “Wild Ass” Byrne gives up 6 hits, 6 walks, and hits four batters.
Ted Williams fractures elbow in first inning of All Star game. Stays in the game, has RBI single later. Says he is never the same after this injury. Hits only .336 over rest of his career.
After 79 games, three Red Sox are averaging at least one RBI per game: Dropo, Williams, Stephens.
Vern Stephens hits 200th homer, fifth active player to reach it.
Stan Musial hits in 30 straight games.
Del Ennis sets a team record with 41 RBI in one month for the Phillies.
Indians waive Gene Bearden to Senators. Two years ago, he led them to the World Series as a rookie.
Joe DiMaggio benched in midst of 4-38 slump.
Andy Seminick destroys the Giants by himself. He knocks thirdbaseman Hank Thompson unconscious at third base and takes out second baseman Bill Rigney with a linebacker block.
Red Sox go 24 – 3 between Aug 15 and Sept 12. Unfortunately, they finish the season with an 8 – 9 record.
Hank Thompson hits two inside-the-park homeruns in one game. It had been 11 years since the last time.
Red Sox host first Ladies’ Night, instead of Ladies’ Day.
Red Sox come back from 7-0 and 10-0 deficits on consecutive days.
Tigers hold first place from June 10 to August 30.
Yankees acquire Johnny Hopp from Pirates on Sept 4 as pennant insurance while he is 2nd in NL in hitting.
Curt Simmons inducted into military because of Korean War.
Yankees sign Moose Skowron off of Purdue Boilermakers football team.
Don Newcombe almost starts and wins both ends of doubleheader against Phillies. Wins game 1, 2-0, and leaves game 2 in seventh, down 2-0 though Dodgers will win 3-2.
Sal Maglie throws 45 straight shutout innings. Gives up a homer over 257’ sign in Polo Grounds.
Eddie Waitkus and Del Ennis both have five hits for Phils in 19 inning win.
Rob Northey hits his 3rd career pinch hit grand slam.
Jim Konstanty sets record with his 71st appearance.
Dom DiMaggio sets record when leads league in steals with 15.
Ted Williams drives in 97 in 89 games while teammate Dropo drives in 144 in 136.
The Red Sox score at least 10 runs in 34 games.
   16. Kelly in SD Posted: May 03, 2005 at 10:41 AM (#1306802)
1950 Recap, part 4

Post-Season:
White Sox hire Paul Richards, become Go-Go Sox. They increase their steals from 19 in 1950 to 99 in 1951.
Dodgers fail to renew Branch Rickey’s contract after the season. He sells his interest in the Dodgers for over $1000000 and Walter O’Malley becomes president.
Connie Mack retires.
Happy Chandler is not renewed as Comissioner by a 9-7 vote led by Cardinals’ Fred Saigh. Reasons given include investigations into gambling activities of owners and his actions jeopardized the reserve clause.

Pennant Race:
Detroit leads AL from June 10 to Aug 30.
Sept. 7 – Tigers retake lead from Yankees due to a tie game.
Sept. 9 – Tigers up ½ game on Yankees, 1 on Red Sox.
Sept 11 – Yankees in first with a doubleheader sweep of Senators in only games played
Sept 12 – Tigers win and Yankees blow 6-run lead. Tigers up ½ game on Yankees, Red Sox 1 back.
Sept 14 – Yankees beat Tigers 7-5 to take over first. Red Sox lose to Browns. Their hot streak is over.
Sept 15 – Tigers best Yankees to go back in front, despite Mize’s 6th career 3 homer game.
Sept 16 – Yankees and Whitey Ford beat Tigers to go back in front. Red Sox then come in and beat the Tigers 3 straight.
Sept 20 – Phillies up by 7-1/2 games over Dodgers and Braves, 87 - 54 to 79 – 61. Red Sox swept in doubleheader by Indians, but Billy Goodman become eligible for batting title.
Sept 23 – Tigers lose second straight to Indians, drop 1-1/2 games off the pace as Yankees defeat Red Sox.
Sept 24 – Dodgers beat the Phillies to cut lead to 5. Cleveland beats Detroit to knock the Tigers back 2-1/2 games as Yankees beat the Red Sox – now behind by 4 games.
Yankees finish out year with another pennant.
Sept 27 – Andy Seminick injured as Phillies swept by Giants. Dodgers split with Boston, now only 4-1/2 games back.
Sept 28 – Phillies swept by Giants. Dodgers split again against Boston, 3-1/2 games back.
Sept 29 – Dodgers sweep against Boston, only 2 games back with 2 left against the Phillies.
Sept 30 – Dodgers beat Philly, one game back, their 13th win in 16 games, the Phillies 8th loss in 10 games.
Oct 1 – Robin Roberts makes his 3rd start in 5 days. Phillies beat Dodgers and Newcombe 4-1 in 10 innings on homer by Dick Sisler. Richie Ashburn saves game by throwing out Cal Abrams at plate in bottom of the ninth.
What is it with Philly managers, pennant races, and their use of starting pitchers?
I apologize if any of the games back data is wrong, but I don't think baseballlibrary.com had all the info correct, so I tried to do some refiguring.

World Series:
Curt Simmons declared ineligible to pitch for Phillies despite being on furlough. Like it needed to be harder for the Phillies to win.

Oct 4 – Jim Konstanty starts for the Phils, loses 1-0 to Vic Raschi on a double to Bobby Brown and two sacrifice flies.

Oct 5 – Allie Reynolds defeats Robin Roberts 2-1 in 10 innings when Joe DiMaggio hits a homer in the 10th.

Oct 6 – Tom Ferrick leads Yankees to a 3-2 win over Russ Meyer.

Oct 7 – Whitey Ford wins 5-2 as Yankees win their 13th World Series.

Minor League Notes:
In the West Texas-New Mexico League, a catcher is struck by lightning. He plays the next day.
Marlin Stuart throws a perfect game for Toledo in the American Assoc. He wins 1-0.
St. Petersburg Saints choose their own manager. Might as well, he is the teams’ fourth of the year.
Tom Poholsky and Andy Tomasic pitch 22-inning complete games in the Int’l League.
In the Florida International League, Havana wins its 5th straight title.
Al Lien throws a 17 inning no-hitter for San Francisco in PCL to win 1-0.

Money News:
Gillette pays $800,000 for World Series rights. Radio goes for additional $175,000. Hey, that’s almost as much as the NHL gets for the Stanley Cup right? Hah, I kill me.

Hall of Fame:
Elects no one as no player receives the required 75% of the vote. 126 votes needed for enshrinement and Mel Ott receives the most with 116.
Top vote getters:
Mel Ott: 116
Bill Terry: 105
Jimmie Foxx: 103
Paul Waner: 95
Al Simmons: 90
Harry Heilmann: 87
Dizzy Dean: 85
Bill Dickey: 78
Rabbit Maranville: 66
Hank Greenberg: 64
Gabby Hartnett: 54
Dazzy Vance: 52
Ted Lyons: 42
Joe Cronin: 33
Tony Lazzeri: 21
Lefy Gomez: 18
Zack Wheat: 17
Ross Youngs: 17
Edd Roush: 16
Ray Schalk: 16
Hack Wilson: 16
Max Carey: 14
Chuck Klein: 14
Charlie Grimm: 13
Red Ruffing: 12
Kiki Cuyler: 11
Jesse Haines: 11
Waite Hoyt: 11

Others with votes:
Red Faber: 9
Burleigh Grimes: 6
Eppa Rixey: 6
Home Run Baker: 4
Goose Goslin: 2
Heinie Groh: 2
Stan Coveleski: 1
Sherry Magee: 1
Wally Schang: 1

Information was gathered from a variety of sources including: Win Shares, baseballlibrary.com, baseballreference.com, STATS All-Time Sourcebook, Daguerrotypes, retrosheet.com, and the Baseball Rookies Encyclopedia.
   17. PhillyBooster Posted: May 03, 2005 at 01:23 PM (#1306860)
Curt Davis was a career San Francisco Seal. He debuted at age 25 in 1929, going 17-13, 3.98 in 240 IP for the 114-87 (2nd place) Seals. His ERA was 3rd on the team, after league leader a 20 year old Lefty Gomez (3.44) and 36 year old post-major-leaguer Elmer Jacobs. Davis had 79 Ks and 61 BB.

In 1930, Curt went 17-18, 4.87 in 305 IP for the 4th place (101-98) Seals. He led the league with 389 hits allowed, 184 runs allowed, and 165 runs allowed. 130 K and 80 BB. He was again the #3 pitcher, after Jacobs and journeyman Jimmy Zinn.

In 1931, the Seals leaped to first place (107-80) behind the pitching of journeyman Sam Gibson, who led the league with 337 IP, 28 wins (28-12), 204 Ks (against 59 BB) and a 2.48 ERA. Davis was the #2 or #3 pitcher on that team (Jacobs had similar stats), with a 14-14 record in 236 IP, and a 4.19 ERA. Davis had 106 K and 56 BB.

In 1932, the Seals plummeted to 4th (96-90), but Curt Davis finally became staff ace, leading the league with 326 IP and a 2.24 ERA. Davis was 26-16 that year with 122 Ks and 57 BBs.

In 1933, the Seals again dropped to 6th place, despite a team that featured an 18 year old Joe Dimaggio hitting .340. Davis was 20-16, 3.98 in 283 IP, essentially the same performance as teammate Jimmy Zinn (20-19, 4.12 in 317 IP). Davis K'd 99 and walked 69. Wee Willie Ludolph led the league in ERA with 3.09 for the Oakland Oaks.

In 1934, he was a 30 year old rookie with the Phillies.

I'd say that Davis was essentially a league-average PCL pitcher from 1929-1931. In 1932 was his star season, and 1933 was well above average.
   18. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2005 at 01:26 PM (#1306866)
Suttles is leading Beckwith at the moment, why? The big year (1926)? Career length? Just curious.

Home runs. He had the most in NeL history, while Beckwith's offensive achievements (at two defensive positions) were spread out more evenly.

It's similar to Brooks Robinson and Ron Santo: while Santo was very good in most areas, Robinson was phenomenal in one area. Brooks is in the Hall, while Santo still has to wait (though he was the greater player).
   19. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2005 at 01:38 PM (#1306880)
Guys, make sure that you go through the Selected Twentieth Century and Negro Home Page threads. We have quite a few new threads and they all can't be seen in the Hot Topics session. I don't want any of those players to fall through the cracks if it's possible.
   20. Carl G Posted: May 03, 2005 at 02:00 PM (#1306918)
Whats up the the Hall of Fame vote? They couldn't elect anyone from that group?! Assuming you could name up to 10(like now), I'd have voted for: Foxx,Ott, Waner, Heilmann, Dickey, Greenberg, Hartnett, Coveleski, Baker, and Vance. And I would have have left guys off my ballot that are Hall-worthy! Seriously, how do you elect NOBODY!
   21. DavidFoss Posted: May 03, 2005 at 02:25 PM (#1306968)
Seriously, how do you elect NOBODY!

According to Bill James, Commisioner Frick congratulated the HOF for "upholding and increasing the stature of the Hall" with their non-election.

The other Hall is inducting players in fits and spurts. Only two inducted from 1940-44, but then 10 in 1945 and 11 in 1946, then 4 in 1947, 2 in 1948, 3 in 1949 and then only none in 1950. They appear to be alternating between feast and famine. This combined with their extremely late start has me thinking that their Hall isn't going to be as good as ours. :-)
   22. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: May 03, 2005 at 02:25 PM (#1306971)
Oddity: St. Louis played 80 games on the road and Detroit played 80 at home instead of the usual 77. Anyone know why?

Looking at the game results vs. the original schedule at Retrosheet: in Detroit's last visit to St. Louis, they were scheduled for a single game on 8/12 and a doubleheader on 8/13. Those games weren't played -- rainouts, I suppose. Since that was the last series between the two in St.L., the games were made up in Detroit, which was the practice at the time. Odd schedule: the Browns still had 3 visits to Detroit left, and one game was made up in each of them.

That type of thing still happens a bit now, but it's rarer, between better travel and teams more zealous about protecting their home dates. Last year, the Giants & Cubs both had one extra home game, the Marlins & Bucs one more on the road.
   23. Carl G Posted: May 03, 2005 at 02:34 PM (#1306984)
'According to Bill James, Commisioner Frick congratulated the HOF for "upholding and increasing the stature of the Hall" with their non-election.'

What were Frick's standards that he was happy that Foxx didn't get in?
   24. Carl G Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:15 PM (#1307049)
'-Does Bobby Estalella need translations for any NgL, international, or minor league play?'

Does anyone know if he's related to Bobby Estalella who caught for the Giants and Rockies a couples years ago?
   25. DavidFoss Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:15 PM (#1307051)
What were Frick's standards that he was happy that Foxx didn't get in?

I think he just liked that they number was zero.

The number of HOF per year reads like a volatile stock market in this era. They'd induct a huge number of guys (e.g. 45-46) and then worry that it was getting too easy to get in and then change the rules to make it tougher. In 1950, they had eliminated the run-off vote, so candidates had to get 75% on the first try. After a number of low-induction years, the backlog would be overflowing with great candidates and then they would change the rules again to make things easier. Its in the high-induction years that they made their most mistakes.
   26. yest Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:23 PM (#1307064)
Underlined candidetes are HoMers bold I'm almost 100% sure are going to be HoMers
what probably happend was there were to many good canidites in addition with the writers self righteousness
Mel Ott: 116
<u>Bill Terry: 105
Jimmie Foxx: 103
<u>Paul Waner: 95</u>
<u>Al Simmons: 90</u>
<u>Harry Heilmann: 87</u>
Dizzy Dean: 85
Bill Dickey: 78
Rabbit Maranville: 66
Hank Greenberg: 64
<u>Gabby Hartnett: 54</u>
<u>Dazzy Vance: 52</u>
<u>Ted Lyons: 42</u>
Joe Cronin: 33
Tony Lazzeri: 21
Lefy Gomez: 18
Zack Wheat: 17
Ross Youngs: 17
Edd Roush: 16
Ray Schalk: 16
Hack Wilson: 16
Max Carey: 14
Chuck Klein: 14
Charlie Grimm: 13
Red Ruffing: 12
Kiki Cuyler: 11
Jesse Haines: 11
Waite Hoyt: 11

Others with votes:
<u>Red Faber: 9</u>
Burleigh Grimes: 6
Eppa Rixey: 6
<u>Home Run Baker: 4</u>
<u>Goose Goslin: 2</u>
<u>Heinie Groh: 2</u>
<u>Stan Coveleski: 1</u>
<u>Sherry Magee: 1</u>
Wally Schang: 1
   27. yest Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:25 PM (#1307075)
I missed Wheat and Carey
   28. OCF Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:30 PM (#1307088)
Underline Max Carey, too. And that other category, "not 100% sure they'll be in the HoM but they are getting fairly healthy support" would include at least Roush and Rixey.
   29. Carl G Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:35 PM (#1307099)
I'm re-working my ballot this year a little so I don't have my whole ballot ready, but here are my top 5:
1Jimmie FoxxDouble X is about as clear cut as you get.
2Joe CroninBest SS on the ballot-Great Peak Great Career
3John BeckwithSuttles was a better hitter, but I think Beckwith had more value.
4Mule SuttlesSee Beckwith. Best NegL power hitter not named Gibson
5Earl AverillWith PCL credit, you can add career value to an already nice peak.

I've decided to not go as strictly on WS as I had been. I'm going to use it more as a piece of evidence, along with WARP, DMB Greatest players disk stats and ratings, MLEs for NegL and to fill in Minor league seasons, and things like OPS+ and ERA+. The main reason is that I feel like I'm too caught up in one stat and I'm forgetting about the underlying stats and players that sum to this number. The 5 player above I feel are a cut above the rest of the class, so I feel confident that they will hold their spots once my research is complete, but it certainly is possible for someone to sneak in ahead of them.
   30. yest Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:35 PM (#1307100)
my computer is giving me trouble with the bold,underline ext.
   31. DavidFoss Posted: May 03, 2005 at 03:41 PM (#1307123)
Ted Williams fractures elbow in first inning of All Star game. Stays in the game, has RBI single later. Says he is never the same after this injury. Hits only .336 over rest of his career.

Only .336! Maybe more players should fracture their elbows. :-)

Wow... Kelly outdid himself this year. Thanks for the great report!
   32. Rusty Priske Posted: May 03, 2005 at 04:14 PM (#1307247)
Prelim.

Once again it look slike my Top 2 are also my PHoM inductees.

1. Jimmie Foxx
2. Joe Cronin
3. Mule Suttles
4. George Van Haltren
5. Eppa Rixey
6. John Beckwith
7. Jake Beckley
8. Mickey Welch
9. Biz Mackey
10. Cool Papa Bell
11. Tommy Leach
12. Edd Roush
13. George Sisler
14. Hugh Duffy
15. Sam Rice

16-20. Ryan, Averill, Lundy, Powell, Grimes
21-25. Streeter, Griffith, Moore, Childs, Monroe
26-30. Mullane, Doyle, Sewell, White, Willis
   33. Daryn Posted: May 03, 2005 at 05:57 PM (#1307546)
I'd be interested to here comments on my reasoning regarding Bell. I have moved from 29 to 15 to 12.

1. Double X – 3 time MVP, 5 times the best hitter in the league. Inner circle.

2. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

3. Cronin – lots of doubles, one more career extra base hit than Beckley, one less than Chili Davis. I could have him as low 8th, but I have question marks about all of the candidates between 4 and 8. Only beats Beckley because of his position bonus.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

5. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment.
6. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind Rube Foster, Rogan and Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

8. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang (who I have in the low 20s).

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

10. George Sisler
11. Sam Rice – I like the hits. Sisler way out peaks Rice.

12. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here, ahead of Suttles and Beckwith. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits). Now I’m going to press submit and try to get into bed before it is posted. Made it.

13. Mule Suttles – I’m getting more sold on Suttles and less sold on Beckwith. Suttles’ MLE WS are tough to overlook even if you apply a modest discount.

14. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

My personal, in/out line is here, the lowest/highest it has ever been.

15. Beckwith –The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 315 career WS, which is pretty much how I see him. I might move him down soon --- or he might get elected first.
   34. Al Peterson Posted: May 03, 2005 at 06:03 PM (#1307567)
Question on Dolph Camilli:

I've heard conflicting stories on his 1944 season (or lack thereof). Was he playing non-ML ball somewhere or in the military?

I'm assuming the tale of him quitting mid 1943 after the trade to the Giants is true but I don't know about the other part.
   35. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2005 at 06:06 PM (#1307574)
I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something.

I think what it means is that they had plenty of drugs in the early fifties, too.
   36. andrew siegel Posted: May 03, 2005 at 06:32 PM (#1307632)
Prelim:

A little tinkering. Nothing earth-shattering. PHOM electees are Foxx and Dihigo.

(1) Foxx (new)--One of my alltime favorite players. Inner circle.
(2) Cronin (2nd)
(3) Jennings (3rd)
(4) Suttles (4th)
(5) Beckwith (7th)--Slides towards the top. Can't quite pull the trigger on fully crediting his projections (which would put him second).
(6) Averill (6th)
(7) Van Haltren (10th)--Moving him back up a few spots after reexamining his record--sheer volume of his achievements is impressive.
(8) Duffy (9th)
(9) Childs (12th)--If WS overrates 1890s OF's, it almost by definition underrates 1890s IFs.
(10) Ferrell (8th)--Though achieved very differnently, I find his total merit to be very similar to that of Rixey and Grimes.
(11) Mackey (11th)
(12) Rixey (13th)
(13) Grimes (14th)
(14) Moore (off/16th)--Given my uncertainty as to Lundy's offense, I held off on him and promoted the next two on my list back onto the ballot.
(15) Charley Jones (off/17th)

Indian Bob Johnson is somewhere around 30, although I am still trying to reconcile WARP's love for him with WS's tepid review.
(13
   37. Ardo Posted: May 03, 2005 at 07:09 PM (#1307719)
Prelim for 1951:

The first five are clear:

1) Foxx
2) Cronin
3) Beckwith
4) Averill
5) Griffith

The next ten are all over the place:

6) Suttles [moving up]
7) Rixey
8) Roush
9) Sewell
10) Beckley (see post #5)

11) Sisler
12) Ferrell [moving up]
13) Bell
14) Welch (thanks to Kelly's analysis)
15) Johnson [138 OPS+ (!); to compare, Chuck Klein has a 137 in about 1000 fewer PA]

Browning, Charley Jones, Tip O' Neill, etc. did have much higher OPS+ than 138, but against FAR weaker competition. Tom York is the only OF from that era close to my ballot.
   38. Ardo Posted: May 03, 2005 at 07:15 PM (#1307734)
A side note: Now that Dick Lundy has been revealed as more like Dave Concepcion than Barry Larkin, he falls into Tommy Leach territory just outside my ballot.

Jose Mendez is 16th.
   39. karlmagnus Posted: May 03, 2005 at 08:58 PM (#1308005)
Incidentally, oh keepers of the HOM plaque room, in view of the appalling ripoff perpetrated with Tris Speaker, Cy Young and to a lesser extent Babe Ruth, I trust both Foxx and Cronin will wear Red Sox caps :-))
   40. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2005 at 09:07 PM (#1308028)
Incidentally, oh keepers of the HOM plaque room, in view of the appalling ripoff perpetrated with Tris Speaker, Cy Young and to a lesser extent Babe Ruth, I trust both Foxx and Cronin will wear Red Sox caps :-))

Uh, well...uh...hmmm...well...

:-D
   41. jimd Posted: May 03, 2005 at 09:48 PM (#1308107)
Seriously, how do you elect NOBODY!

These RF'ers, Ott and Waner, they don't measure up to the great RF'ers of the past, like HOF'ers Ruth, Keeler, Kelly, and McCarthy.

Same thing at 1B. Terry and Foxx can't hold a candle to Gehrig, Anson, Sisler, Brouthers, and the Peerless Leader.
   42. David C. Jones Posted: May 03, 2005 at 10:22 PM (#1308201)
I have a done a major reassessment of the 19th century candidates over the last few days, and I've made one significant change. I've moved Pete Browning all the way up to what would be the #5 slot on my ballot, behind Foxx, Cronin, Beckwith and Suttles, and ahead of Mendez, Roush, Ferrell and Waddell. I had just completely miscalculated him as a player, and upon reflection I've realized that I can't be consistent and not have him up near the top, since I tend to value peak over career. Career is also somewhat important to me, so I try to give that some weight (I have a formula for this), but Browning was excellent for basically every season he played in the majors, across three different leagues. I see C. Jones as being behind Browning fairly significantly, though I did move him up to #27 on my ballot, just ahead of George Burns.

The only downside is that he's another 1880s player, and I wanted to see if any of the 1890s guys deserved to be higher on my ballot, and I couldn't justify it. There's just something wrong with all of them. Beckley I have rated #45, near Tommy Leach and Fielder Jones. His career value is excellent, but there's just no peak to speak of. Hughie Jennings has a great peak, but his career value is almost non-existent. He just didn't play enough to do well in my system. I have him slotted in the 29th spot. Van Haltren I have in the 25th slot--he's got great career value, better than Beckley's even, and a slightly better peak, but overall he leaves me unimpressed as well, in terms of moving him into the top 15. Griffith I have still at #18, just behind Earl Averill.

Am I missing something on these 1890s guys? Or was this just a down decade for the HOM, because too many candidates went down to injury or have other flaws?
   43. sunnyday2 Posted: May 03, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1308208)
I'd like to see a Bobby Estalella thread...or rather, I would like to learn more about him and a thread couldn't hurt.

I mean, just consider that his ML career went from age 24 through 38--granted, a mere 2550 PAs, but an age spread that is representative of a real career. Except that his 4 100 game seasons came at ages 31-34, which may or may not have been past-prime or at least past-peak. Despite which, he ended up with a career OPS+ of 127, subject of course to a WWII discount. But again, that could easily be balanced against the fact that he didn't have a conventional peak, at least not in the ML.

Then I can't see how we would hold it against him that Dihigo was a bigger star in Cuba, and the idea that Salazar and Bragana and Tiant and Amaro and Garcia were better players, well, that's just some people talkin.' Rather than dismiss Estalella, I'd suggest we find out about Salazar and the rest.

Meanwhile, anybody who thinks Indian Bob Johnson is HoM candidate--and maybe he will be when we get into the deep backlog--consider that Bob played 13 years at 139 OPS+. Yes, very impressive, but the guy had a peak in the MLs and Estalella didn't, but played 2 years "longer" from start to finish.

Then Bill James says his minor league numbers are "eye popping."

So I'd at least like to find out some more about those minor league years and those Cuban years.
   44. KJOK Posted: May 03, 2005 at 10:32 PM (#1308230)
Besides Jimmie Foxx, Sammy T. Hughes, Bob Johnson, Harlond Clift, Josh Gibson, Chet Brewer, Sam Bankhead and Double Duty Radcliffe, are there any other threads needed?

I believe it's ALEX Radcliffe that is eligible this year and needs a thread, not Double Duty...
   45. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2005 at 10:42 PM (#1308259)
I believe it's ALEX Radcliffe that is eligible this year and needs a thread, not Double Duty...

As I stated in my e-mail to you, I'm posting threads two weeks earlier for NeL players (or major league players that need credit for minor league play) so we can have more discussion than we have had up to this time. Since Double Duty is eligible in '52, that's why he has a thread now.

BTW, should brother Alex have his own thread?
   46. Ardo Posted: May 04, 2005 at 06:37 AM (#1309651)
Re: TrevorP's post #63 in the 1950 election results thread.

Are there any relievers who deserve HoM induction as one of the top 230-some baseball players ever?

Eckersley and Smoltz, I can see, because both men were successful starters for a long time. But an old-time fireman like Wilhelm or McDaniel? An ace reliever like Sutter or Gossage? A modern closer like Rivera (assuming two more years of ~130 ERA+)? I'm eager for other people's opinions.
   47. karlmagnus Posted: May 04, 2005 at 11:39 AM (#1309783)
Wilhelm will get my vote -- knuckleballer bonus, a concept I invented for Cicotte and am saving for Wakefield :-))
   48. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: May 04, 2005 at 12:00 PM (#1309793)
Wilhelm will absolutely, positively get my vote. Third-best ERA+ of all time, with roughly the same number of innings pitched Pedro has now -- I'll take it.

Beyond that I'm reserving judgment.
   49. Carl Goetz Posted: May 04, 2005 at 12:05 PM (#1309800)
Wilhelm's a no-brainer. What will be interesting is the Fingers-Gossage-Sutter debate.
   50. sunnyday2 Posted: May 04, 2005 at 12:34 PM (#1309822)
An interesting group of second or third tier candidates this year--Johnson, Derringer, Clift, Ferrell. Seems clear enough that the HoF got the wrong Ferrell.

The biggest change for me this year? Actually two:

1. I never thought Lundy was really a 122 hitter, but I also don't think he was <100 hitter either. Maybe Chris' original 104 is about right but even that will bring him down a bit. Still think he was better than Sewell but he will probably drop off my ballot.

2. I am willing to accept a more holistic view of Gavy Cravath's career. This is based on the principle that I have used for Dobie Moore--if he was playing baseball, he deserves credit for playing baseball, whether it was in the majors or not. That leaves, of course, the task of finding the right conversion. In Cravath's case, it is fairly easy, in Moore's (for his time with the Wreckers) difficult.

Along with a strictly numerical conversion, the issue remains, however, that whether he was judged "unfairly" in some micro way, Cravath got a shot. Moore and others didn't. They were excluded at a macro level and never got their shot.

Per the discussion last week about Martin Dihigo, I am inclined to use more or less of a best case scenario for people who never got a shot, and I am inclined to use more or less of a worst case scenario for those who did (Cravath, Averill, etc.). So I am not going to be crediting Cravath with the proposed 530-550 WS, and I'm not going to be getting on the Buzz Arlett bandwagon.

Whether Cravath and Arlett were judged inaccurately (above, I said of Cravath that perhaps he was judged unfairly, I should have said inaccurately), they got a shot, and contemporary opinion does have a role in my evaluations.

So, anyway, whether Cravath makes my ballot or not, I don't know, but he has moved into my active consideration set. With Waner and Dihigo's election, he becomes the #1 RF in the set, ahead of Mike Tiernan, at least.
   51. sunnyday2 Posted: May 04, 2005 at 12:49 PM (#1309838)
Prelim

1. Foxx-->PHoM
2. Cronin-->PHoM
3. Jennings
4. Sisler
5. D. Moore
6. Suttles
7. Waddell
8. Bond--#2 through #8 all move up one slot
9. Roush--was #11, moves ahead of Lundy
10. Williamson--was #13, leapfrogs Klein who drops due to unfavorable comparison to Bob Johnson
11. Joss--was #14
12. Bell--was #15
13. Doyle--was off ballot

14. Lundy, Klein or Dean--I said above Lundy would probably drop off my ballot. I still think we, like WS, overrate bats and underrate gloves. Lundy still in consideration as a GG SS with a >100 OPS+. When I mentioned Klein's unfavorable comparison to Johnson, I meant it was close. Klein still leads on peak. Dean has not been on my ballot but my pitching ratings are always a bit unstable and he is moving back up.

15. Lundy, Klein, Dean, Beckwith or Cravath

19-30. Gomez, Averill, Browning, Cicotte, Sewell, Bresnahan, Childs, Monroe, Traynor, C. Jones, Rixey, Griffith
   52. Al Peterson Posted: May 04, 2005 at 12:52 PM (#1309842)
From the few people posting prelim ballots I can tell I'll be Bob Johnson's biggest supporter. He'll be somewhere in the top 10.

Interesting career. He takes over in 1933 for Al Simmons and is replaced in 1946 by Ted Williams. No wonder he didn't hit the big leagues before or after his 13 year stint.

Little doubt in my mind his results in 1931-32 would have been consistent with 1933-34. That was the name of his game - consistency.
   53. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 04, 2005 at 01:25 PM (#1309883)
Wilhelm will absolutely, positively get my vote.

Same here. He was truly outstanding and my pick for the greatest reliever of all-time.
   54. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 04, 2005 at 01:31 PM (#1309889)
Regarding relievers....

I think that we may be approaching the reliever question even more quickly than we think. Using a version of my admittedly somewhat cockamamie scheme for ranking pitchers among themselves, I've taken a look at relief some of the more dominant relief pitchers since the Fireman model of the McCarthy Yankees started to take hold.

Here's a top-ten list to chew on in rough rank order that is highly subject to change:

1 Wilhelm
2 Gossage
3 McDaniel
4 Sutter
5 Marshall
6 Quisenberry
7 Ellis Kinder
8 Lee Smith
9 Stu Miller
10 Rivera

Disclosure statement: This does NOT account for any leverage indexing, nor for any BP IHR stats and is based purely on a WS adjustment method. In addition, it does indeed count and account for RPs' starting contributions.

Kinder is obviously the potentially controversial name on this list, and he benefits from some SP credit, but he was also a very highly effective reliever, at least according to WS. IIRC, he comes up in the early 1960s.

I haven't identified a great way to rank modern closers yet because they tend to score very low in WS. Thus I am probably short-changing Rivera, Hoffman, and a few others.

Hey, for kicks, here's a second ten:

11 Hiller
12 Face
13 Doug Jones
14 Montgomery
15 McGraw
16 Garber
17 Peranoski
18 Franco
19 Fingers
20 Tekulve

Hoffman could be on this list, as could Wetteland or Eck or Henke.

Anyway, my point in these lists is just to stimulate a little discussion so that we don't have to do all the heavy theoretical lifting when relievers start coming online.
   55. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: May 04, 2005 at 01:35 PM (#1309893)
Should we maybe start a thread for general discussion of relief pitchers at some point?
   56. Al Peterson Posted: May 05, 2005 at 01:27 PM (#1313234)
So the Ballot Discussion thread doesn't drop out of sight...

The SABR Bioproject Bio on Paul Derringer can be found here. Looks to have had quite the temper.
   57. Carl G Posted: May 05, 2005 at 01:33 PM (#1313240)
Just to get this topic back up top again(since it is the current ballot discussion); what do you guys think of Harlond Clift? I'm ranking my 3B right now(haven't tried to fit him in overall yet) and he keeps coming out 2nd to Beckwith and ahead of Childs(I know Childs was a 2B but I look at old time 2B with in my 3B category and vice versa). I see basically 8 good years(5 great) and, by the stats I've seen, a great defensive 3B. As far as 2B/3B/SS go, he's got to be behind Cronin,Beckwith, and Jennings(between 2 'peak' guys Hughie will usually win), but I'm not sure where to rank him relative to Williamson and Sewell.
   58. Rusty Priske Posted: May 05, 2005 at 02:08 PM (#1313290)
Partly just to bump...

I have Bob Johnson 31st and Harlond Clift 60th.
   59. Carl G Posted: May 05, 2005 at 02:15 PM (#1313304)
I haven't done my overall rankings yet, but I'm pretty sure I will have Indian Bob ahead of Clift. The main reason I'm curious about Clift is the possibility that he was a fantastic defensive player. FRAR seems to think so(something like 40% of his WARP comes from fielding) and his range factors are pretty amazing too. I'm going to check out WS when I get home tonight. Does anyone know any anecdotal evidence about his D?
   60. DavidFoss Posted: May 05, 2005 at 02:16 PM (#1313310)
Clift is better than I expected. I know he was a poster boy for SABR types in the old Traynor vs Clift debates of about 10 years ago. But, basically Clift was chosen for those debates in order to raise eyebrows -- chosen for his obscurity.

He was great in his day, though. Clift looked like a HOM-er after his age 25 season, then was decent in his 27 & 29 seasons. He looks like a better fielder than I expected as well. Unfortunately, he fell off sharply after that (despite decreased competition during wartime).

Decent 3B candidates don't come around very often, but I don't think his career is long enough for me to place him above McGraw.
   61. Al Peterson Posted: May 05, 2005 at 02:27 PM (#1313335)
Onto Clift:

He's probably decent for folks who have 3 and 5 year peaks as a metric. My rankings isn't into that peak coverage so much so he's not going to be high. I'd put Beckwith, Childs and Leach ahead of him for sure.

Maybe a check versus Stan Hack will be appropriate to get a real feel of where he fits in this time period. Stan was a good hitter but apparently not as good a fielder.
   62. Chris Cobb Posted: May 05, 2005 at 02:39 PM (#1313365)
Clift, like Johnson, is a player that WARP likes better than WS, for probably the same reasons: Clift played for bad teams that underperformed their pythagorean projections significantly in both of his best seasons.

As a reminder, WS will _slightly_ underrate players on bad teams as a general rule, not because there are not enough WS to go around, but because the WS system makes no in-league competition adjustment. For the 1930s AL, that means the Yankees' competition is treated as the same as the Browns' competition, even though the Browns had to play the Yankees and the Yankees got to play the Browns . . .

I don't think this makes a big difference, but it is an effect.

I think a team having bad pythagorean performances in both of a player's best seasons would have a significant effect.

All that said, I have Clift firmly behind Joe Sewell, who is not on my ballot. His peak was slightly higher than Sewell's, but his career is significantly less impressive.

As for great-fielding third basemen, Clift was good, but check out Heinie Groh's WARP numbers . . .
   63. Chris Cobb Posted: May 05, 2005 at 02:45 PM (#1313381)
On Clift vs. Hack:

Clift was a better fielder, but Hack was a _much_ better hitter.

By WARP, Clift has a somewhat better peak with his big years in 1937-38, Hack has a much better career.

By WS, there's no comparison. Hack is _way_ ahead of Clift.
   64. Carl G Posted: May 05, 2005 at 02:54 PM (#1313397)
How have I not looked at Groh yet? Thats what I get for missing over a decade of elections. When I came back I only looked at the players who got a vote from someone else in that election and that didn't include Groh I guess. On a quick analysis, I would say he's better than Clift, though.
   65. Chris Cobb Posted: May 05, 2005 at 02:58 PM (#1313404)
On a quick analysis, I would say he's better than Clift, though.

Yes.

One other player who bears comparison with Clift, and who really shouldn't be forgotten, is George Scales. He played nearly half of his career at third base, and was quite a good hitter. He and Clift are the sort of players who might slip through the cracks in a deep ballot period . . .

No published win shares for Scales yet, but soon.
   66. Al Peterson Posted: May 05, 2005 at 03:14 PM (#1313436)
Prelim ballot:

1. Jimmy Foxx. Easy at top.
2. Joe Cronin
3. Bob Johnson. I'm falling more on the WARP version than the WS. Plus that 138 OPS+ really is hard to ignore.
4. Hugh Duffy
5. Tommy Leach
6. Edd Roush
7. Clark Griffith
8. Dick Redding
9. Hughie Jennings
10. John Beckwith
11. Earl Averill
12. Rube Waddell
13. Biz Mackey
14. Tony Mullane
15. Eppa Rixey

Next five: McGraw, Suttles, Mike Griffin, Ryan, Poles
   67. alio intuito Posted: May 05, 2005 at 03:23 PM (#1313456)
Does anyone know if he's related to Bobby Estalella who caught for the Giants and Rockies a couples years ago?

I'm 99.9% certain that he is his grandfather. I have to say that I really enjoy reading the comments in the HOM threads. I don't have the depth of knowledge (or the time, really) to contribute but I admire the work that goes on here.
   68. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: May 05, 2005 at 03:37 PM (#1313495)
You can make that certainty 100.0%.
   69. Daryn Posted: May 05, 2005 at 05:44 PM (#1313910)
Carl G,

Groh has been elected by us. From your post, I'm not sure if you knew that.
   70. Carl G Posted: May 05, 2005 at 05:50 PM (#1313932)
Sure enough, I've even got that written down; 1938. I guess that would explain why no one's voting for him. I'll crawl away quietly now.
   71. Al Peterson Posted: May 05, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1314141)
More Bob Johnson stumping below. Lets compare him to some of the folks getting votes. Numbers show he sustained high offensive levels for a long period of time.

Number of full time playing seasons at or above the given OPS+ threshold -
OPS+ >=     125  135  150

Foxx        14    13   10
Johnson     13     6    2
Beckley     11     3    1
Van Haltren  9     4    0
Averill      7     6    1
Sisler       7     7    5
Duffy        6     2    1 
   72. Jim Sp Posted: May 05, 2005 at 06:43 PM (#1314217)
Foxx #1, Bob Johnson #6.

Clift #37, Rick Ferrell #52. Camilli, Ben Chapman, Derringer, and Curt Davis had nice careers but aren’t close to the ballot.

Griffith, Bresnahan, Welch, Joss, and Jose Mendez are in my PHoM but off my ballot.

1)Foxx--Something like #40 all time, overwhelmingly qualified.
2)Cronin--Clearly qualified.
3)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
5)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA.
6)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
7)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
8)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. He made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
9)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
10)Suttles--Struggling with where to put him.
11)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
12)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
13)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
14)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
15)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.


Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #20.
   73. Howie Menckel Posted: May 05, 2005 at 08:32 PM (#1314994)
I expect Indian Bob to surely make my ballot. He's very underrated. Not sure where yet...
   74. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 05, 2005 at 08:43 PM (#1315027)
Al,

the problem with your list is that everyone underneath Johnson, except maybe Sisler, played a more demanding defensive position and Sisler probably had more defensive value since he was a very good 1B during his peak. Also, OPS+ has a myriad of problems. Looking and WARP and WS I dont' think Johnson will make my ballot, not as good as GVH, Duffy, and Averill in my mind.
   75. David C. Jones Posted: May 06, 2005 at 12:47 AM (#1315542)
Here is my preliminary 1951 ballot. There are at least three very significant changes I'm looking to make based upon a reevaluation of three separate careers, as part of an overall effort to look again at some placements I wasn't comfortable with.

1. Jimmie Foxx. Yeah, he was good.

2. Joe Cronin

3. Buzz Arlett. I have purposefully delayed looking at his case until I could give it a more complete review, and upon said review, I think he was really, really, really good. The MLEs suggest to me a top-notch hitter, along the lines of a Harry Heilmann or Al Simmons. I doubt his defense was anything special, but clearly, the guy could rake, and he had a long professional career and was consistently excellent throughout.

4. John Beckwith

5. Mule Suttles

6. Pete Browning. Another reevaluation. He was a consistently great hitter for his entire ML career, across three different leagues. He was the best hitter in the PL in 1890. My mistake was in not accurately pro-rating his career and peak value to adjust for the shortened seasons.

7. Gavy Cravath. Just behind Browning, and back on my ballot after a several year's absence. The ML track record combined with his performance in the PCL is convincing evidence for me.

8. Jose Mendez

9. Edd Roush

10. Wes Ferrell

11. Rube Waddell

12. Dick Redding

13. Ben Taylor

14. George Sisler

15. Dick Lundy

Falling off the ballot: Biz Mackey, Vic Willis.

Newcomers not on my ballot: Nobody besides Foxx is close. I'm not as enamored of Bob Johnson as others seem to be. A consistently good hitter, but he got a boost from the decline in ML quality due to the war at the end of his career. I have him slotted 49th, just ahead of Fielder Jones. Harlond Clift I have at #85, Dolph Camilli at #79, Curt Davis at #90, Rick Ferrell at #91, Cuccinello at #92, and Ben Chapman at #96.

Comments and criticisms welcome.
   76. Al Peterson Posted: May 06, 2005 at 12:55 PM (#1316215)
Al,

the problem with your list is that everyone underneath Johnson, except maybe Sisler, played a more demanding defensive position and Sisler probably had more defensive value since he was a very good 1B during his peak. Also, OPS+ has a myriad of problems. Looking and WARP and WS I dont' think Johnson will make my ballot, not as good as GVH, Duffy, and Averill in my mind.


OK, good observation. One data point does not tell all. Let's see WARP1/WARP3 for the above mentioned:

Player WARP1/WARP3
VH 118.3/83.6
Duffy 95.4/66.3
Averill 95.7/81.7

Johnson 102.2/91.4

If people want to give Averill PCL credit that's fine. I'd also like to give Indian Bob some of that - I feel the MLEs on his hitting would show he was major league caliber before he was up with the A's. It's looks to be he was stuck behind Al Simmons which is no fault of his.

I just assume people look at the 287 WS and give Johnson the "no thanks" glance. Looking at another LF around his time and comparing:

Joe Medwick 134 OPS+ in 8142 PA; 312 WS; 96.1/87.5 WARP1/3
Bob Johnson 138 OPS+ in 8047 PA; 287 WS; 102.2/91.4 WARP1/3

Do I trust WS in this instance? Not so sure. Johnson might be slightly underrated in Win Shares based on the fact that (1) throughout his career his teams underperformed their Pythag W/L and (2) let's face it, his teams stunk.
   77. Michael Bass Posted: May 06, 2005 at 01:21 PM (#1316244)
Al,

It seems relatively clear that you're ranking Johnson primarily on WARP (somethiing I will be doing myself, but in a different manner). A best year by best year comparison between him and Averill in WARP1:

Averill vs. Johnson

12.6 vs. 10.7
11.7 vs. 9.9
10.5 vs. 8.6
10.2 vs. 8.4
9.4 vs. 8.3
8.4 vs. 7.6
8.2 vs. 7.5
8.1 vs. 7.4
7.3 vs. 7.4
6.9 vs. 7.0

With additional years for Johnson @ 6.9, 6.3, 6.2

Now, certainly Johnson's additional years are big wins for him. Those aren't just average years, they are good years. But unless you don't value peak at all, I can't see Johnson > Averill using WARP. Each of Averill's 8 best years is better than the comparable year for Johnson. Each of Averill's 5 best years is significantly (1+ wins) better than the comparable year for Johnson.
   78. Carl G Posted: May 06, 2005 at 02:06 PM (#1316296)
Ok, here goes.

RankNameComments
1Jimmie FoxxDouble X is about as clear cut as you get.
2Joe CroninBest SS on the ballot-Great Peak Great Career
3John BeckwithSuttles was a better hitter, but I think Beckwith had more value.
4Mule SuttlesSee Beckwith. Best NegL power hitter not named Gibson
5Earl AverillWith PCL credit, you can add career value to an already nice peak.
6Eppa RixeyGreat Long Career; long enough that his near total lack of peak doesn't kill him.
7Jake BeckleyI've upped in in my re-analysis this week. He's not inner-circle, but definitely 'in' when the back-log-clearing years come around.
8Dick ReddingOne of the great Negro League pitchers
9Gavvy CravathGiving him credit back to '07 gives him pretty solid career numbers to go with the peak.
10Hughie Jennings5 phenomenal years. Its enough, I think, but he'll need to wait.
11Clark GriffithLong career, solid peak.
12George SislerThe peak is hard to ignore.
13Wes FerrellHe's not Grove, Hubbell or Lyons, but he's 4th I this period. I upped him in 29-31 for pitching against much tougher offenses than grove did.
14Wally SchangI like his offense from the catcher slot.
15Joe SewellSlick fielder, above average hitter. He's in my gray area where I don't know if he's HoM-worthy or not(this started around Sisler and will end several players off my ballot)
   79. Al Peterson Posted: May 06, 2005 at 02:06 PM (#1316297)
Now, certainly Johnson's additional years are big wins for him. Those aren't just average years, they are good years. But unless you don't value peak at all, I can't see Johnson > Averill using WARP. Each of Averill's 8 best years is better than the comparable year for Johnson. Each of Averill's 5 best years is significantly (1+ wins) better than the comparable year for Johnson.

Thanks Michael, I had looked at the WARP yearly material prior. Averill does beat Johnson in the peak component of my rankings. There are just other elements, usually career based material, that ended up with me putting Johnson ahead.

I'll reexamine my CF vs LF conversions also to see if I'm adjusting improperly. That's why my ballot was prelim. Plus the difference between #3(Johnson) and #11 (Averill) is pretty fine to begin with.
   80. Mike Webber Posted: May 06, 2005 at 02:12 PM (#1316304)
I have Edd Roush as the top outfielder on my ballot, could someone tell me what his Warp numbers are? And is there link to them, or do you have to subscribe?

Thanks
   81. PhillyBooster Posted: May 06, 2005 at 02:29 PM (#1316344)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/roushed01.shtml

110.3 WARP1/ 74.7 WARP2/ 77.4 WARP3
   82. Carl G Posted: May 06, 2005 at 02:29 PM (#1316345)
Just go to www.baseballprospectus.com and search for the player you want. The stats at least are free.
   83. Jeff M Posted: May 06, 2005 at 04:48 PM (#1316654)
2B: Scales/Childs/Doyle/Lazzeri//Monroe.

How does Monroe end up behind Scales, much less in a "big gap" behind Scales? Monroe was in heavy competition with Grant and Home Run Johnson, both of whom were elected. I don't know if there were OPS+ or WS numbers done for Monroe, but his OPS in KJOK's MLEs was .820, which is damned good for a good fielding middle infielder. Grant's was .769. Scales was between .800 (MacMillan) and .830 (Holway). Monroe was more of a standout during his era.

I don't see a big gap.
   84. OCF Posted: May 06, 2005 at 05:30 PM (#1316733)
One of this year's key issues is placing Bob Johnson. He's not going to be elected this year (that will almost certainly be Foxx and Cronin), but once we place a new candidate in the queue, that tends to be where he stays barring exceptional efforts to move him.

In my favorite offense-only syste (which is peak-friendly), at face value, I have Johnson ahead of every non-elected corner outfielder except Tiernan, and ahead of a couple of the elected ones (Sheckard, Thompson). But the key word there is "face value." Johnson is getting a big boost in this system from his 1944 season, and at least some benefit from 1942, 1943, and 1945.

As I see it, that makes him the first candidate for whom we must cope with the effects of WWII in order to place him properly. Johnson was playing major league baseball during those years, but the level of competition in the major leagues was significantly reduced by the absence of many players.

I tried applying a modest discount to the context of those years. The discount was modest enough that 1944 still shows up as Johnson's single best offensive season, by a good margin.That modest adjustment is enough to drop him down into the neighborhood of Kiki Cuyler, Chuck Klein and George Burns. (I'd still take him ahead of Thompson, but that ship has sailed.) Johnson has an advantage over Klein in steadiness and playing time; Klein has the higher peak. Cuyler, Burns, and Klein aren't in my top 25.

I'm anticpating mentioning Johnson among my top 25, but not particularly likely as part of my top 15. But what exactly to do about WWII in his case has to be an issue.
   85. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 06, 2005 at 06:14 PM (#1316859)
I've given Johnson a 10% reduction for 1943-1945. Before the deduction, he wasn't getting onto my ballot and with the reductions, he's behind Cravath, Burns, C Jones, Veach, Cuyler, Tiernan, Manush, and in the neighborhood of Rice and Klein.

IMO he's clearly ahead of Herman and Youngs.

I'm a WS voter, so this may not be true for WARPers. I essentially see Dixie Walker and Johnson as extremely similar.
   86. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 06, 2005 at 08:12 PM (#1317295)
Johnson won't be on my ballot, either. I need a little more career from him, plus I reduce his WWII numbers.
   87. Howie Menckel Posted: May 06, 2005 at 08:35 PM (#1317387)
Hmm, I'll think about the WW II issue. Never did before with Indian Bob.
   88. Mike Webber Posted: May 06, 2005 at 08:40 PM (#1317416)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/roushed01.shtml

110.3 WARP1/ 74.7 WARP2/ 77.4 WARP3


Thanks Philly, and Carl too.

So I realize WARP doesn't allow us to look behind the veil, but the Warp 1 puts him at the top of CF group, Warp 3 at the bottom. Anyone have any insight into why?
Everyone listed declined, but Roush dropped 40% and Johnson about 10%.
Is this a strength of league thing?
   89. DavidFoss Posted: May 06, 2005 at 08:51 PM (#1317469)
Is this a strength of league thing?

I believe so. The NL get nicked quite strongly in the 10s.
   90. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 06, 2005 at 09:19 PM (#1317597)
Has anyoneever done a study of the quality of the majors during the war years? I had heard 10%, which sounds reasonable, but knowing that there were more 'major league' players in the service than there were roster slots in MLB, 10% seems a bit too low.

By the way I got that an article by Herbert Simons. I don't have the information on this computer but Simons wrote an article entitled, "Major League Service Stars now number 475" or something like that. At the same time historian Steve Bullock estimated that 90% of MLB players were in the service. I think Bullock is using the beginning of the 1942 season as his reference while Simons is counting anyone who played in MLB. Either way 10% seems low, even if guys like Hack, Johnson, and Musial were around.
   91. Michael Bass Posted: May 06, 2005 at 09:36 PM (#1317704)
I think looking at WARP3 that guys are getting hit for the war years. Just looking at Bob Johnson for example

WARP 1/3

1941: 7.6/7.4
1942: 7.4/6.2
1943: 6.4/5.6
1944: 10.7/8.9
1945: 7.4/5.4

Newhouser WARP 1/3:

1944: 13.0/11.7
1945: 14.8/13.0
1946: 12.8/13.2
1947: 10.8/10.9

Most of the late 30s through 1941, WARP 1/3 are very close. Starting in 1942, the difference starts to widen. When 1946 hits, back to in the same neighborhood (in fact, WARP sees a slightly increased competition pre vs. post war, but that may be typical timelinging).

I'm not saying we shouldn't argue over whether that discount is the right number, but it may be a starting point for us.
   92. Michael Bass Posted: May 06, 2005 at 09:37 PM (#1317715)
As an aside to Al Peterson, after my rant earlier, having actually run the #'s myself, Johnson could pull ahead of Averill if he gets any ML credit for his minor leagues...his longer career and longer prime grade out better than I thought. :)
   93. sunnyday2 Posted: May 06, 2005 at 10:18 PM (#1317937)
Eligibles--top 10 each position except 20 pitchers = 100 (though not nec. the top 100)

C-Bresnahan, Mackey, Schang, Clapp, Clements, Schalk, Ferrell, Carroll, Kling, Petway

1B-Foxx, Sisler, Suttles, Beckley, Chance, B. Taylor, Bottomley, Fournier, Camilli, H. Davis

2B-Doyle, Childs, Monroe, Dunlap, Evers, Lazzeri, Myer, S. White, N. Allen, Pratt (no G. Scales)

SS-Cronin, Jennings, D. Moore, Sewell, Lundy, Bancroft, Tinker, Maranville, Bartell, Fletcher

3B-Williamson, Beckwith, Leach, Traynor, J. Johnson, McGraw, L. Cross, Marcelle, Nash, Lyons (no H. Clift despite nice peak)

LF-C. Jones, B. Johnson, Veach, Burns, Manush, T. O'Neill, York, K. Williams, H. Johnson, G. Stone

CF-Roush, Bell, Browning, Averill, H. Wilson, Duffy, Van Haltren, Berger, Ryan, Poles

RF-Klein, Cravath, Cuyler, Tiernan, S. Rice, Chino Smith, Youngs, Hooper, Arlett, Oms

P*-Waddell, Bond, Joss, Dean, Cicotte, Redding, McCormick, Gomez, Mendez, Rixey, Griffith, Welch, Ferrell, Bridges, Luque, Mullane, Wi. Cooper, Willis, Grimes, Galvin

*What I really need is a study of the second-tier NeL pitchers (meaning after the so-called "1st tier" eligibles of Redding and Mendez). I have no clue how the rest stack up. I expect 2-5 of them to make this list ahead of anybody from Mullane on down.
   94. OCF Posted: May 06, 2005 at 11:00 PM (#1318053)
Two questions about Mike Kreevich:

1. Would he have had a better career in the 1970's-1980's in some big-outfield turf park?

2. What would your relative ranking be of Mike Kreevich, Paul Blair, and Cesar Geronimo?

(Obviously, we're not talking about an HOM candidate.)
   95. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: May 07, 2005 at 02:53 AM (#1318963)
Not that anyone will, or ought to consider voting for him, but I just did a career review of Ted Breitenstein I'm sorta proud of. If you're interested and you have the time, you may want to check it out.

And as long as I'm self-whoring, Al Spalding.
   96. OCF Posted: May 08, 2005 at 03:21 AM (#1320458)
RA+ PythPat comment:

Paul Derringer: 216-189. An impressive workhorse. Has a three-year stretch with an equivalent 21-13, 21-13, 20-13.

Curt Davis: 148-110. Best years are widely scattered.

I've commented before on IP per actual decision (I've been using one virtual decision per 9 IP.) Derringer had 8.38 IP/decision, which is quite low. Davis had 8.04 IP/decision, which is the lowest of anyone I've worked up. In Davis's case, this clearly reflects him getting a large number of decisions in relief.

Neither one will make my ballot, but these are two very good and memorable pitchers.
   97. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: May 08, 2005 at 05:44 PM (#1321150)
Clark Griffith. Finally did a write-up on him. Not actually done with all I want to do, but due to issues I have going on here for the next whenever, I ain't likely to do that much more than what you already see for a bit. FWIW, he ended up allowing 9 more unearned runs for his entire career based on his team's % of UER, so you can adjust his career ERA from 3.31 to 3.33.
   98. TomH Posted: May 09, 2005 at 03:37 PM (#1323123)
Still catching up on my reading here, so a few random thots:

Nice job on Griffith, Chris.

Nice 1950 summary Kelly!

Calling all friends of Pete Browning: Indian Bob Johnson should be your man. Hit just as well, fielded better, longer career. Not even close. I will have him slightly above Averill.
   99. TomH Posted: May 10, 2005 at 01:01 PM (#1325805)
**** diatribe alert ****

well, not really, and before I hit 'send' on this, a little persepctive - as we hit half-way on the HoM project, I cannot believe how good this has been. The discussions are typically excellent, the new info is marvelous, and overall I almost completely agree with our selections. My own personal choices for biggest mistakes sound woefully pitiful; I mean, there isn't that much to argue over. My lowest ranking HoMer so far is Faber, and I actually helped him get in as he was #7 or so on my ballot when he entered. My highest ranking non-HoMers aren't so extremely deserving to get much upset about. So when I write passionately about two players below, it's not like I truly believe it's a huge issue - merely a minor correction from my perspective. Kudos to us, and to the guys who do so much work here each week.

Now, on to the arguin........
-------

Hughie Jennings, while not yet elected to the HoM, has drawn considerable support from voters who emphasize peak performance.

I do not understand how Jennings gets so much more voter love than his teammate John McGraw.

Win Share Career totals: Jennings tops him, 214 to 207, but in 750 more PA. I trust most voters would consider this a draw, or an edge for Mugsy.

If I line up their best 9 consecutive years, where both of them accumulated most of their value, it looks like this:

JM 20 24 20 ..3 20 31 34 21 16 total 189
HJ 12 14 ..2 24 29 36 29 32 ..9 total 187

So, Jennings DID have a better five-year peak, but he sure dropped off a cliff the year before and year after.

Jennings also played more than McGraw, whcich obviously helps accumulating Win Shares. If I used some type of Win Shares above ‘replacement’ or ‘average’, McGraw’s advantage would increase.

Did Jennings have a historic 5-year run? By Win Shares, the answer is clearly ‘NO’. Hughie’s 150 WS over 5 years is only 80th (!) best of all-time, even if we exclude all of the 19th century pitching years. He is 4th among SS (behind Cronin in fact).

Of course ‘5-year peak’ is Jennings calling card. If we used ‘best 8 consecutive years’, Jennings is 250th all time (gee golly).

Looking at their batting stats (and since they were contemporary teammates, this is easy) for their best 4 year stretches (HJ 95-98, JM 97-00), we see Jennings outhit McGraw, .368 to .350, with a little more power and similar speed. McGraw drew a huge, enormous amount of extra walks, 20.4% of his PAs to 7.5%. Of course Jennings played SS to McGraw’s 3B, but John was surely the better hitter.

So where does the prevailing opinion come from that Jennings was one of the world’s best players at his peak? From WARP! Again, here is a Jennings/McGraw comparison for their best 4 years (same years as before):
….EqA BRAR BRAA FRAA WARP3
HJ 312 …204 …141 …102 …..49.1
JM 332 …222 …169 …..18 …..33.2

This confirms that McGraw was a bit more valuable with the stick. But Jennings gets 21 runs a year advantage for his defense, plus the position difference between playing SS and 3B, which WARP apparently puts very high; so Jennings finishes 4 wins per year better. A gold-glove shortstop is worth 40-50 runs a year more than a decent dead-ball third basemen? Anyone see a problem with this?

First of all, according to Lee Sinins baseball encyclopedia, using RCAA and RCAP, the ‘average’ batting skill between SS and 3B in this period was only 3-4 runs a year. WARP likely overstates this.

Secondly, Jennings 4-year mark of 12 fielding runs above average is by far much better than the best gloves of all time! Here is a comparison to the best 4-year peaks of the consensus best gloves at 2B, SS, and OF:
Ozzie Smith 72 Bill Mazeroski 97 Willie Mays 60 Hughie Jennings 102
(these figures are the ‘timeline corrected’ ones, so it already takes into account the league quality diff – the numbers would look even worse if I had used WARP1)

Anyone wish to claim that this paints an accurate picture? Jennings a far better shortstop than thew wizard? IMHO, nobody is consistently worth 26 runs a year more than an average defender at his position. If they are, then let’s put Mazeroski in the HoM right away :)

John McGraw led his league in runs scored (a pretty impt category!) twice, and in walks.
Hughie Jennings led his league in HBP three times. In fact, much of Jennings’ value is in his historic ability to get plunked; he has the best 3 seasons ever in HBP. Would this ‘skill’ have carried over to playing conditions in 1940 or 1990? Don’t know.

It seems to me that the ONLY way Jennings is so high on some ballots is that many voters put a lot of stock in “5 year consecutive peak” as a measure of greatness – which is A reasonable way to do it, but by no means should be THE measure. By ANY OTHER measure, Jennings’ peak advantage is greatly lessened.

I am not trying to trash Jennings. He is a viable candidate for peak-emphasis voters. But John McGraw, from the stats we have, was as good as Jennings in his best couple of seasons, and again (at least!) as good if you count 7 or 10 or 13 years. When I also consider how respected McGraw was as one of the smartest men to play the game, and maybe there are some items that don’t show up in the stats, it seems to me that Mugsy deserves at least as much action from our group as Hughie does.
   100. sunnyday2 Posted: May 10, 2005 at 04:04 PM (#1326079)
Some people like talking about cases. Me, I kind of like the bigger questions. Like, how broadly should we be considering MLEs? NeLs, yes. PCL and maybe AAA ball generally, yes. Cuba, maybe. Mexico, maybe.

So, I asked, how about high school, college, town ball, little league?

Well, let's get down to cases, and let's make it a case that might mean something.

OK, George Sisler.

Sisler was a star athlete as a young man, as a boy, really, "so much so that at the age of 14 he transferred to Akron (Ohio) High School in 1907 so he could play baseball.... George... distinguished himse;f to the degree that he signed a professional contract with the Akron Champs of the...Ohio-Pennsylvania League" while still in high school. (Quoting from The Baseball Page, www.thebaseballpage.com/past/pp/sislergeorge/)

Upon his high school graduation, he enrolled at the University of Michigan where his coach was Branch Rickey. As a senior, he hit nearly .500 and won 11 games as a pitcher.

A year later (in his ML adjustment year?) he was in the major leagues and hit 106 (OPS+) in 81 games.

Whether this suggests someone who had MLE value during his college career or not, I don't know. But it does not seem to be a totally frivilous and stupid question, as my more general question was said to be (actually, ####### clueless were the precise words).

Also, Joe Sewell is another borderline candidate. Well, I've read that at the time of Ray Chapman's death, he was "burning up the Southern League," whose conversion factors we also do not know but which we can surmise perhaps more readily than the Big Ten.

What about extra credit for Joe Sewell?
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