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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, June 20, 2005

1954 Ballot

Big names among the newly eligible include Arky Vaughan, Joe Medwick, Bucky Walters and Hilton Smith.

Top-ten returnees include Willie Wells, Mule Suttles, John Beckwith, Billy Herman, Red Ruffing, Stan Hack, Earl Averill and Eppa Rixey.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 20, 2005 at 02:10 PM | 82 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 20, 2005 at 02:15 PM (#1417062)
hot topics
   2. ronw Posted: June 20, 2005 at 03:45 PM (#1417210)
1954 Ballot
Fueled by finishing #1 in consensus, time on Father's Day, and some thinking about peak vs. career, I’m totally revamping my system this year. I’m also redoing my PHOM again. Gone is my previous heavy emphasis on long careers (sorry Van Haltren, Beckley, Ryan, Rixey and Ruffing), and a greater emphasis is placed on peak/prime.

1. Arky Vaughan Few shortstops in history hit as well as Arky.

2. Willie Wells I like the Luke Appling comparison.

3. Mule Suttles Beckwith was a better fielder, and may have struck out less, but Suttles had 2000 more plate appearances.

4. John Beckwith Great hitter whose reputation has been tarnished by history.

5. Dick Redding I think Redding was probably dominant for a few seasons in an undocumented time. One of the few long-career holdovers.

6. Pete Browning The biggest beneficiary from my revised focus. This is the best hitter we haven’t elected yet, by far. Yes, most of his prime was in the AA, but as has been said, he hit anywhere, any time.

7. Stan Hack The premier 3B of the late 30’s/early 40’s is overlooked by Cooperstown.

8. John McGraw Really an all-time great on base machine. I have had career length issues in the past, but his peak is too good to ignore.

9. Cupid Childs I think I was focusing on the wrong 1890’s guys.

10. Roger Bresnahan Lombardi made me take a look at Roger. I think Bresnahan may have been a better hitter than the Schnozz.

11. Wes Ferrell Outstanding hitter, outstanding peak.

12. Dobie Moore I think he had just enough, and koufax/sunnyday2 made me rethink this excellent shortstop.

13. Tommy Bridges Surprisingly above average almost every year of his career. The electorate should take another look at him.

14. Rube Waddell Similar career-length to Griffith, had a higher peak and not one in the 1901 AL.

15. Clark Griffith I never thought I’d get back to the Old Fox, but here he is. Had just enough to make my ballot.


LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

I just noticed that if I merely recycled my old ballot, I would not have had to make comments here.

Billy Herman – On my ballot last year, now looking a bit below Childs and even Lazzeri among eligible 2B.

Red Ruffing – Off with the new peak/prime emphasis.

Earl Averill – Close to the ballot, BUT also close to Hack Wilson in hitting value. I think he was a better fielder then Hack, so he’s next in line among CF.

Eppa Rixey – Off with the new peak/prime emphasis.

Joe Medwick – Surprisingly behind Bob Johnson (who is just off the ballot).

Hilton Smith – Very close to the ballot.

Bucky Walters – I thought he would make the ballot. It turns out his peak was not as high as I had originally thought.
   3. Jim Sp Posted: June 20, 2005 at 04:44 PM (#1417370)
Hilton Smith off my ballot based on the info in the Hilton Smith thread.

Bucky Walters is HoVG worthy. Around #70, with Wilbur Cooper and Dolf Luque.

Beckley, Rixey, Waddell, Cravath, Monroe, Bresnahan, Griffith, Joss, Jose Mendez, and Welch are in my PHoM but off my ballot.

1)Vaughan--Very underrated.
2)Wells--Well qualified, could have gone in right away in a different year.
3)Beckwith-- A great hitter, he played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. He made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
4)Suttles--
5)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while.
6)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
7)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
8)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA.
9)Lombardi--Well, there goes my consensus score. A long career as a catcher with a big bat. I see 15 obvious catching electees: Gibson, Bench, Fisk, Carter, Hartnett, Dickey, Piazza, Berra, Simmons, Ewing, Cochrane, Campanella, Parrish, Rodriguez, Santop. I’m an advocate for what I see as the next tier: Freehan, Munson, and Porter will get strong consideration on my ballot too. You can’t have a baseball team without a catcher. Almost 2000 games caught including PCL.
10)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
11)Medwick--
12)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
13)Billy Herman-- I’m still perplexed trying to figure out his career relative to the defensive spectrum shift at 2B. He looks good compared to modern 2B, not so great compared to early lively ball 2B. Gets two years war credit, that helps too.
14)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
15)Stan Hack--His time will come, I think. I like him better than Groh, who I voted for.

Ruffing#30, he’s HoVG but I don’t like him as much as the consensus.
Rixey--#17
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Hughie Jennings—impressive peak, not enough career.
   4. andrew siegel Posted: June 20, 2005 at 05:33 PM (#1417470)
Rethinking my baseline for long career pitchers drops Ruffing from a projected number 6 slot to #15 and Grimes from #16 down into the 20's.

Walters is number 30; Smith right around #50.

My only required disclosure is Stan Hack, who ranks #20 once you take appropriate war discounts. He's ever so slightly behind Herman (#15) and Sewell (#19), who I think bring very similar credentials to the table.

This is a very difficult ballot. I've ended up ranking groups of similar players right next to each other. Don't know whether that kind of strategy will continue, but it gives me the ballot I'm most comfortable with this week. Here's the ballot:

(1) Arky Vaughan (new)-- I have him in the top 40 players of All-Time. The second best SS peak of All-Time likely belongs to him or ARod (with apologies to Llyod, Jennings, and Moore), and the career is more than long enough.

(2) John Beckwith (2nd)--The next three guys are among the very best non-inner circle negro league candidates. Beckwith was the best hitter of the bunch and had at least some defensive value.
(3) Willie Wells (3rd)--Feel about him like the bulk of you do.
(4) Mule Suttles (5th)--Without defensive value or walks has to rank behind the two other negro leaguers.

(5) Hughie Jennings (6th)--The rest of the candidates are mixes of big pluses and big minuses. His astronomical peak is the biggest chit any of the remaining candidates bring to the table.

(6) George Van Haltren (7th)--The next four are the OF's who put up full-length HoM careers with either a huge peak or a consistent run of very good seasons, but without both. GVH had more good seasons than any of the rest.
(7) Earl Averill (9th)--Averill has the best prime of the group and ranks even with the next two guys on career length if you give him PCL credit.
(8) Hugh Duffy (11th)--Very similar to Medwick, seems to have ever so slightly less falloff from his historic seasons.
(9) Joe Medwick (new)--Huge peak advantage and slight career edge have him comfortably above Bob Johnson on this tight ballot.

(10) Dobie Moore (10th)-- Still dying for more info. If he was as good as ARod, Vaughan, Lloyd, and Jennings at his peak, he should be in the top 5 regardless of career length issues. Just not sure enough to pull the trigger.

(11) Wes Ferrell (13th)-- Favorable comparison to Walters ticks him up one spot; very similar value to Rixey and Ruffing, just achieved in a very different way.

(12) Cupid Childs (12th)-- Still a big fan.

(13) Eppa Rixey (15th)--Substantially more of his PRAR are PRAA than Ruffing or Grimes, plus he get some war credit.
(14) Red Ruffing (8th)-- I still believe WARP that he was a pretty good pitcher in Boston, but too much of his value is tied up in being average. Trying to come up with a system that better evaluates the long career pitchers., Until then, he goes here.

(15) Billy Herman (14th)--Ever so slightly worse than Childs, ever so slightly better than Sewell and Hack. I suspect that you will elect him before I get a chance to see if I think he really belongs.

Next 15: Mackey, Roush, Jones, Sewell, Hack, Redding, Willis, Bresnahan, Bell, Bob Johnson, Sisler, Chance, Ryan, Grimes, Walters.
   5. karlmagnus Posted: June 20, 2005 at 06:22 PM (#1417608)
Frey, York and Walters well off – short careers, and York/Walters need to be rounded down for WWII. Medwick also needs to be rounded down – becomes medium length career at OPS+ significantly below 134 -- about #40, I think. Vaughan on the other hand needs to be rounded up if anything, had an OK length career, was really good and a shortstop – beats Welch though being conservative not quite Beckley, therefore. Smith’s 174-123 MLE doesn’t do it.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp, finally (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (N/A) Arky Vaughan 2103 hits, would have been 2600-2700 but for the war (need to give war credit for ’46, also, but subtract a bit for ’43.) OPS+136 and he was a SS. TB+BB/PA .510, TB+BB/Outs .837. Easy HOMer, may even be above Beckley. Much better than Greenberg, Dickey or Wells.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-10) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, even if some of it was during the war years. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

10. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.
   6. karlmagnus Posted: June 20, 2005 at 06:23 PM (#1417610)
11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12. (N/A-13) Willie Wells. Pretty much like Sewell, but somewhat better for somewhat longer. Marginally a HOMer, therefore.

13. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice. Decided he’s not quite as good as Rixey or Leever, after seeing Kelly’s figures.

14. (N/A-13-14-14-13-13-13-14-15) John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson. Also, Chris Cobb’s equivalents are looking more solid to me. Definitely better than Suttles, but had a short career.

15. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Just off the ballot until an extra slot opens up.

17. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA.575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

18. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits.

19. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

20. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
21.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
22. (N/A) Mule Suttles. About halfway between Reggie Jackson and Dave Kingman -- out rather than in, I feel, but still close to the boundary.
23. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
24. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
25. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
26. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
27. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
28. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
29. (N/A) Heinie Manush
30. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
31. Earl Averill. Fairly well off my ballot, and I think the team are giving him too much minor league credit. In the real world, 2019 hits at an OPS+ of 133 doesn’t get him close to the HOM. Not as good as Tiernan.
32. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell
33. Wes Ferrell
34. (N/A) Dick Lundy
35. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
36. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
37. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
38. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
39. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.

40. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792

41. Cool Papa Bell. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
42. Billy Herman. 112 OPS+ not very distinguished, but 2345 hits is an OK length career and he about breaks even on war credit. TB+BB/PA .448, TB+BB/Outs .677, pretty undistinguished for a mainly 1930s player.
43. Kiki Cuyler
44. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire.
45. Deacon McGuire
46. Jack Quinn
47. Tony Mullane
48. Pye Traynor
49. Jim McCormick
50. Dick Redding
51. Joe Judge
52. Edd Roush
53. Spotswood Poles.
54. Larry Doyle
55. Roger Bresnahan.
56. Wayte Hoyt.
57. Harry Hooper.
58. Jules Thomas.
59. Wilbur Cooper
60. Bruce Petway.
61. Jack Clements
62. Bill Monroe
63. Jose Mendez
64. Herb Pennock
65. Chief Bender
66. Ed Konetchy
67. Jesse Tannehill
68. Bobby Veach
69. Lave Cross
70. Tommy Leach.
71. Tom York
Hack shortish career and rate stats inflated by the war, off bottom of consideration set.
   7. sunnyday2 Posted: June 20, 2005 at 06:50 PM (#1417691)
Just as a point of clarification--and I'm sure I could find the answer on the Arky Vaughan thread if I had a minute--but didn't Vaughan "retire" as opposed to "go to war"? Not that it really matters, he's going to be #1 on my ballot regardless. But while his retirement was due to an odd circumstance, it was still more akin to a retirement than to an enlistment or anything. Right?
   8. DavidFoss Posted: June 20, 2005 at 07:03 PM (#1417728)
From the baseball online library:

"in 1944, Vaughan stayed on his California ranch, refusing to give as the reason his obvious loathing for Durocher or his wish to support the war effort by farming."

arky vaughn
   9. Tiboreau Posted: June 20, 2005 at 07:23 PM (#1417793)
I finally took the time to construct a Personal Hall of Merit based on my present evaluations (Griffith, Jennings, Beckwith & Suttles in, Thompson, Carey, Terry & Lyons out . . . at least for the next few years). The biggest effect this had was on long, peakless pitching careers (Lyons out of PHoM, Rixey & Ruffing off my ballot), which I am more comfortable with—it better matches my view of the similar career arc in position players. Arky Vaughan and Bill Dickey make my PHoM this "year."

1. ss Arky Vaughan (nc)—An underrated star of the ‘30s, Vaughan has the best peak of any eligible candidate, and enough value outside his prime to merit spot over Willie’s greater career. PHoM 1954
2. ss Willie Wells (1)—Legitimately the second greatest shortstop of the Negro Leagues, Willie’s peak is doubly understated by his MLEs. PHoM 1953
3. 3b John Beckwith (4, 4, 3)—His spot on my ballot is mainly based on Gadfly’s inestimable opinion on his hitting and Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections. PHoM 1940
4. 1b Mule Suttles (5, 5, 4)—Based on his reputation alone, I originally had Suttles ahead of Simmons & Beckwith. Based on Chris Cobb’s projections alone, he would be behind Duffy in the midst of the outfield/first base glut, so I’ve compromised between the two. PHoM 1949
5. 2b Billy Herman (6)— According to Win Shares, only Jennings, Moore, and Hack have a better peak among serious bottom tier middle infield candidates, and only Leach and Hack have similar career value. According to WARP, only Vaughan and Jennings have a better peak among all eligible candidates, and only Vaughan and Red Ruffing have comparable or better career value. I give Billy credit for time missed due to WWII during ’44 and ’45.
6. sp Wes Ferrell (7, 8, 8)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter.
7. 3b Stan Hack (8)—Similar to Billy Herman in balance of real good peak and career value; his peak was better but considering WWII Herman’s career advantage gets a boost while Stan’s best season is docked a bit. A card-carrying member of the underrepresented third baseman class.
8. sp Clark Griffith (10, 6, 5)—A good balance between peak and career: His peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former. PHoM 1939
9. ss Hughie Jennings (11, 7, 6)—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates (excluding Arky Vaughan). His peak also comprises of 73.4% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value. PHoM 1942
10. lf Joe Medwick (nc)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
11. cf Hugh Duffy (12, 9, 7)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
12. sp Dizzy Dean (13, ob)—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! Win Shares credits Dean with the best peak among eligible pitchers, while only Wes Ferrell has a better peak according to WARP.
13. ss Dobie Moore (ob, 10, 9)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1916 to 1920.
14. rf Gavy Cravath (14, 11, 10)—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
15. sp Bucky Walters (nc)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
16. cf Edd Roush (ob, 13, 12)—Roush nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
17. cf Earl of Snohomish (ob, 14, 13)—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the ever-growing glut of solid outfield candidates. I give Averill credit for his ’28 PCL performance. If his peak was a little higher or his career a little longer, he would have made my ballot.
18. sp Jose Mendez (ob)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
19. 2b Cupid Childs (ob)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
20. c Biz Mackey (ob, 15, 14)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang.
21. sp Eppa Rixey (15, 12, 11)—Suffers from my re-evaluation of long, peakless pitching careers made in constructing my PHoM. The new evaluation puts them in better alignment with their position player counterparts.
22. cf Cool Papa Bell (ob)—An interesting case. While James Riley’s expert pole places Bell among the 1st team Negro League All-Stars, Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections place him squarely among the long career, decent peak candidates, below even the infamous Jake Beckley. Like Willie Wells, I think his peak is doubly understated, and have placed Cool Papa about where I see his MLB comparable, Max Carey.
23. sp Rube Waddell (ob)—While an real good player at his peak, his character created interesting issues for his teams, evidenced by his disappointing IP totals during that time and his UERA totals over his career.
24. ss Joe Sewell (ob)—I see him as the third best shortstop of his era when including Negro Leaguers Beckwith and Moore, and behind three other middle infielders: Jennings, Childs, and Doyle. So, Sewell falls just off my ballot.
25. 1b George Sisler (ob)—While his peak is nice it’s not as good as I originally thought, and his marginal second-half isn’t enough combined with his peak to get him on my ballot. He’s sitting just off the ballot with Joe Sewell.
26. sp Red Ruffing (9)—Like Rixey, dropped due to my reevaluation of long, peakless pitching careers. Was also a reality check for my reliance on WARP for the position.

27 – 30: Tony Lazzeri, Roger Bresnahan, Larry Doyle, Burleigh Grimes
31 – 35: Charley Jones, Carl Mays, Wally Schang, Tommy Leach, George Van Haltren
36 – 40: Dick Redding, George Scales, Jimmy Ryan, Ernie Lombardi, Pete Browning
41 – 45: Lon Warneke, Fielder Jones, Jake Beckley, Bill Monroe, Vic Willis
46 – 50: Dick Lundy, Frank Chance, George J. Burns, Dolf Luque, John McGraw
   10. OCF Posted: June 20, 2005 at 07:37 PM (#1417823)
1954 ballot.
1. Joseph Vaughan (new) A completely convincing peak case. I don't know if we're going to have a manager's wing, and if we do, I might not participate - but if it came to that, I would definitely hold Vaughan's story as evidence against Durocher.
2. Willie "Devil" Wells (---, 3) I see him as belonging somewhere in the Frisch/ Cronin/ Sandberg/ Whitaker/ Trammell/ Larkin/ Biggio/ Alomar line of infielders, which is tricky, becuase I think most of those guys belong in the HoM but I'm not sure all of them do. Wells is comfortably on the long-career end of this group. We can't completely rule out the possibility that Chris has systematically underestimated his peak, in which case he would be more of a Ripken/Yount.
3. John Beckwith (2, 4, 3, 4, 4) Starting a run of infielders who could really hit.
4. Stan Hack (----, 5) Depending on what you consider Beckwith to be, the second or third best-hitting 3B of the last 60+ years. OBP matters. Offense-only, he's below Sisler for peak but ahead career in my system.
5. Larry Doyle (3, 5, 4, 5, 6) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
6. Ducky Wucky Medwick (new) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
7. Red Ruffing (----, 7) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
8. Joe Sewell (4, 6, 5, 6, 8) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. I've been his best friend; even lowering him a little, I'm probably still tied for his best friend. He nearly got elected once, and there's still a lot there.
9. George Van Haltren (6, 7, 6, 7, 9) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
10. Eppa Rixey (7, 8, 7, 8, 10) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
11. Wes Ferrell (8, 9, 8, 9, 11) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
12. George "Mule" Suttles (9, 10, 9, 10, 12) Was he Willie Stargell? Willie McCovey (only shorter)? Or someone else entirely?
13. Earl Averill (10, 11, 10, 11, 13) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
14. Jake Beckley (11, 12, 11, 12, 14) Not much peak, long career.
15. Biz Mackey (12, 13, 12, 13, 15) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
16. Hugh Duffy (14, 15, 13, 14, 16)
17. Billy Herman (----, 17) Offensively about the equal of Lazzeri, B+ defense; that's a very good player, but I don't see more than that.
18. Bucky Walters (new) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
19. Cupid Childs (13, 16, 14, 15, 18) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
20. Tommy Bridges (15, 17, 15, 16, 19) RA+ PythPat 190-124, which is a record that has to be taken seriously. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
21. Cool Papa Bell (16, 18, 16, 17, 20) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
22. Edd Roush (17, 19, 17, 18, 21) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey. He'll make it back to my ballot.
23. Jose Mendez (22, 24, 23, 24, 22) Pending further review; could move up.
24. Dick Redding (25, 26, 25, 26, 23) Ditto.
25. George Sisler (18, 20, 18, 19, 24) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
26. Bob Johnson (--, 18, 20, 25) A late bloomer, excellent hitter, steady career. WWII discount keeps him out of the top 15.
27. Pie Traynor (19, 21, 20, 21, 26) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy. But nowhere near Hack as a hitter.
28. Frank Chance (20, 22, 21, 22, 27) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
29. Rube Waddell (21, 23, 22, 23, 28) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
30. Roger Bresnahan (23, 25, 24, 25, 29) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
   11. DanG Posted: June 20, 2005 at 08:22 PM (#1417951)
My #1 and #2 were elected for the third straight year. Another stellar quartet arrives in 1954: Vaughan, Medwick, Walters and Hilton Smith(?). Buck Leonard is a shoo-in for 1955. In 1956, the AL keystone combo of Appling and Gordon make their debut.

1) Arky Vaughan – An easy HoMer, top 75 all-time.

2) Willie Wells (3,ne,ne) – Could be a top 100 player all-time.

3) Billy Herman (4,ne,ne) – High peak, high career. Often underrated. The SABR 20th century survey voted him #183 among 20th century white players, which translates to about #225 when you add in 19th century, Negro league and 21st century stars. James has him about #130 in the new BJHBA. He’s right smack in between those two ratings, I think. An all-star ten times. Three times top 4 NL MVP voting.

4) Clark Griffith (5,4,4) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

5) George Van Haltren (6,5,3) – I’ve been his best friend in recent elections, a position I am not comfortable trying to defend. He gained ground among the backlog for the 2nd straight election; let’s hope that continues. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Now in his 46th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

6) Tommy Leach (7,6,5) – Still approaching Lost Cause status. Every time I think of dropping him, to get in line with the consensus, I look at the guys below him and go, “nah”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated. Voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Some voters are docking him too severely for league quality. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2100+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins
9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler
11—2122 J. Sheckard

7) Earl Averill (8,7,6) – Ranks above Roush on strength of league and minor league credit, otherwise very similar peaks and careers. James ranks them #14-#15 in centerfield.

8) Eppa Rixey (9,8,9) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

9) Mule Suttles (10,9,14) – Good slugger. Could move up.

10) Edd Roush (11,10,7) – Pennants added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

11) Wes Ferrell (12,11,10) – Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

12) Red Ruffing (13,ne,ne) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well.

13) George Sisler (14,12,8) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

14) Biz Mackey (15,13,12) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available, knocking Bresnahan off after a 28-year run. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

15) Joe Medwick – Everyone needs a shiny new toy. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting.

John Beckwith – About half the electorate is sold on him. That’s all it takes to be a HoMer in this environment. For me, he’s fourth in my NeL queue.

Stan Hack is being strongly considered for future ballots.
   12. EricC Posted: June 20, 2005 at 09:26 PM (#1418135)
1954 ballot. Moving this week, so voting early and keepin' it short.

1. Arky Vaughan. We know better now than the HoF voters did back then.
2. Wally Schang. Catcher bonus, 10s-20s AL bonus, recognition that C did not catch as many games per season then.
3. Joe Sewell. One of the top IF of the 1920s, HoM career value taking AL strength and true replacement level into account.
4. Red Ruffing. Put me in for the Ruffing close to Lyons comparison. To his era what Plank was to an earlier era and Blylevan (?) was to a later one.
5. Earl Averill. Top ML CF of the 1930s.
6. Billy Herman. One of best 2B of his time; some war credit.
7. Stan Hack. 9th all time 3B in BJNHBA.
8. Willie Wells. One of top NeL SS ever, peaking in late 1920s. Could deserve to rate higher.
9. Mule Suttles. NeL HR king.
10. Tommy Bridges. 126 ERA+ in the AL.
11. Cool Papa Bell. Long career, low peak, like Sam Rice, but with outstanding speed.
12. Lefty Gomez. Peak bonuses help because of the 2 Cy-Young type seasons.
13. Jose Mendez. Evidence of a HoM worthy peak.
14. Biz Mackey. One of greatest NeL catchers.
15. Joe Medwick. Suspect that he doesn't get it quickly, but joins the OF glut instead.

Bucky Walters and Hilton Smith are definitely at least hall of very good, but neither makes my top 30. More excited about Ray Brown as a HoM type player.

Rixey was very good but has been knocked off my top 15 by more recent players.

Relative career shortness, uncertainty about his peak, and strong competition from contemporary players keeps Beckwith below the above players on my ballot.
   13. Daryn Posted: June 20, 2005 at 09:38 PM (#1418163)
I'm away the next week, so this is a quick ballot.

1. Arky Vaughn – has a lot of similarities to Joe Medwick with the bat (I have Medwick at 17, ahead of the outfield glut), but he did at shortstop. Peer pressure is keeping me from taking a hard look at whether he is actually better than Welch and Beckley. He just barely tops them at a cursory review.

2. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

3. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

4. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment.

5. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

6. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind Rube Foster, Rogan and Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

8. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang (who I have in the low 20s).

9. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here, ahead of Suttles and Beckwith. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

11. Willie Wells – I’m having trouble putting full reliance on the MLEs. I wish I had a better way of determining where the NeLers ranked. No matter how you look at it, I don’t see how to justify a top of the ballot placement, particularly if Scales is nowhere near your ballot.

12. Mule Suttles – I’m getting more sold on Suttles and less sold on Beckwith. Suttles’ MLE WS are tough to overlook even if you apply a modest discount.

13. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

14. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

15. Beckwith –The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 315 career WS, which is pretty much how I see him.

16. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin.


19. Billy Herman – close to Sewell, the all-star games are impressive. This is the beginning of my defensive infield positions glut – Herman, Sewell, Leach, Hack, Traynor and Monroe are all pretty close to me.

23. Stan Hack – either just better or just worse than Traynor. I’m starting him here.

26. Wes Ferrell

35. Earl Averill

46. Jennings – he’d be lower for me if you guys weren’t all so sure he was great. Peak alone is insufficient for me.
   14. Brent Posted: June 21, 2005 at 02:26 AM (#1419201)
1954 Ballot:

The backlog gets pushed back once again, as Arky, Bucky, and Ducky join the cacophony this year. If I could, I’d vote for 30 candidates.

1. Arky Vaughan –
Number 3 shortstop of all time—though there is probably a bigger gap between number 3 and the top 2 (Wagner and Lloyd) at shortstop than at any other position.

2. Wes Ferrell –
Underappreciated. In his prime he was more valuable than Hubbell or Lyons.

3. Willie Wells –
He did it all – good fielder, hit for average and power, played for a long, long time.

4. Mule Suttles –
How many home runs might he have hit in the majors? My best guess is 535, which would have placed him second on the career list when he retired.

5. John Beckwith –
A better hitter overall than Suttles, but if I were a manager I would have preferred Suttles.

6. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL. Counting 1928, 10 seasons with 24+ WS.

7. Hughie Jennings –
In the 1986 BJHBA, James presented two top-100 lists, one for peak value, the other for career value. It’s always seemed to me that the HoM should include the top players on my peak list regardless of how they place on my career list. Jennings would rank about # 30 on my all-time peak list, so I see him as fully qualified for the HoM.

8. Dizzy Dean –
I see Dean’s HoM case as just as strong as Jennings’—not sure why Jennings garners so much more support. See my case for Dean in # 26 on the Dizzy Dean thread.

9. Bucky Walters –
The successor to Hubbell and Dean as the top pitcher in the NL. The 1930s had a ton of pitching talent—much more than the 20s.

10. José de la Caridad Méndez –
See my case for Méndez in # 65 on the José Méndez thread.

11. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

12. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones.

13. Ducky Medwick –
7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings.

14. Red Ruffing –
Awful in one-run games. But he was 7-2, 2.63 in the World Series.

15. Biz Mackey –
Outstanding defensive catcher who was also a good hitter during his prime.

These guys are meritorious too:

16. Roger Bresnahan
17. Cool Papa Bell
18. Tommie Leach

19. Billy Herman –
Just misses my ballot – he’ll eventually make it.

20. Hilton Smith –
I’m more uncertain about his placement than any other player (other than Double Duty Radcliffe). His statistics suggest a similar career to Bucky Walters, which places him here. But I’m not at all confident that Smith should rank ahead of Andy Cooper and Nip Winters.

21. Stan Hack –
Another outstanding player who just misses my ballot.

22. Clark Griffith
23. Buzz Arlett
24. Dobie Moore
25. Bill Byrd
26. Mel Harder
27. Gavy Cravath
28. George Burns
29. Urban Shocker
30. Spottswood Poles

Other top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
I have him ranked # 37. Was almost never the best pitcher on any of his teams; in my estimation, being the best number two pitcher of his time just isn’t enough to qualify for the HoM.
   15. Adam Schafer Posted: June 21, 2005 at 05:16 AM (#1419509)
Mostly recycled comments on the hangovers from last year.

1. Arky Vaughn (n/a) - Love the peak, wish he hadn't have clashed with Durocher so we could've seen what type of career numbers he really would've had.

2. Billy Herman (3) - Billy has been a pain for me. I've thought him over time and time again and have settled on him deserving an elect me spot this year.

3. Mickey Welch (4) - Mickey continues to hang out at the top of my ballot. No way to justify giving him an elect me spot though. To many great players hitting the ballot each year.

4. Red Ruffing (5) - The 2nd player I had a hard time ranking. I couldn't decided whether he belong over Ferrell and Grimes or not. I am fairly satisfied now that he does, but that could change.

5. Wes Ferrell (6) - Hard to put him here without the career that I'd normally love to see, but his peak was good and just barely lasted long enough for me to rank him this high.

6. Burleigh Grimes (7) - Grimes just won't leave the top of my ballot. I can't say that it bothers me either.

7. Biz Mackey (8) - I love catchers. He's not Santop or Gibson, but he's HOM material in my book. He did reaffirm that Schang should be on my ballot.

8. Willie Wells (9) - Had a hard time getting a grip on Willie too. Not convinced he was as valuable as Mackey, but fairly convinced he was more valuable than Suttles. Will keep him here for now, but could easily move.

9. Mule Suttles (10) - Not overly confident that I have him too high or too low. This seemed like the best spot to slot him for this year

10. Wally Schang (17) - Re-evaluated Schang. Realized he should be ahead of Lombardi. Over ranked Lombardi on the last ballot.

11. Sam Rice (12) - This is the type of consistency that I love. Simply the type of player that I love. Consistency is meritable in my eyes.

12. Ducky Medwick (n/a) - Ends up low on my ballot after initially thinking he would be much higher.

13. Earl Averill (13) - Consistency is key for me...what he could have done had he been in the majors sooner...I do give him some (although minimal) minor league credit.

14. Eppa Rixey (14) -I've decided that Grimes is more deserving of the word "Merit" by my definition.

15. George Sisler (15) - I still believe he should be in the HOM. Even his "bad" years were pretty darn good.

16. Clark Griffith (16) - Same old story for Clark

17. Pie Traynor (18) - One of the greates 3b of all time.

18. Stan Hack (19) - Nothing against the guy, but the ballot is crowded and I can't seem to put him above Traynor although he is really close.

19. Jake Beckley (20) - Not far off from Sisler.

20. Rube Waddell (21) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

21. Joe Sewell (22) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out. Same problem as Schang at the moment.

22. John Beckwith (23) - Just off of the ballot, but no fault of his own. He'll be back on the ballot again soon enough.

23. Ernie Lombardi (11) - Takes a big hit to adjust for his lack of playing time each season.

24. Cool Papa Bell (24) -

25. George Van Haltren (25) - At the bottom of my PHOM list, but on it still the same.
   16. Rusty Priske Posted: June 21, 2005 at 12:52 PM (#1419622)
PHoM: Army Vaughan and Bill Dickey


1. Willie Wells (1,x,x)
2. Arky Vaughan (new)

This is not a slight on Vaughan, but rather an endorsement for Wells.

3. Red Ruffing (4,x,x)

There has been some hate for Ruffing floating around. I'm not sure why. He is very deserving of enshrinement.

4. Mule Suttles (3,3,3)

Could he be the next GVH? So close, and yet so far.

5. Stan Hack (11,x,x)

I underrated him.

6. George Van Haltren (6,5,4)

Everyone else (nearly) underrated him.

7. John Beckwith (9,6,6)
8. Mickey Welch (7,8,8)
9. Jake Beckley (10,7,7)

It seems that these guys are 'love 'em or hate 'em' types.

10. Eppa Rixey (8,4,5)

I was once his best friend. I still think he deserves a spot.

11. Billy Herman (x,x,x)

I'm not as high on him as some, but he is moving up in my eyes.

12. Tommy Leach (14,11,11)

For someone who doesn't get mentioned much, he hangs around.

13. Cool Papa Bell (12,10,10)

I've said it enough.

14. Biz Mackey (13,9,9)
15. Edd Roush (15,12,12)

On their way down and out.

16-20. Medwick, Rice, Sisler, Duffy, Moore
21-25. Averill, Mullane, Powell, Ryan, White
26-30. H. Smith, Streeter, Monroe, J. McCormick, Gleason
   17. TomH Posted: June 21, 2005 at 12:55 PM (#1419624)
relatively easy at the top this week

1954 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates our consensus rank from last ballot

1-Arky Vaughan {new}
Thru age 24, as good as A-Rod!
2-Willie Wells (3) [3]
--
--(goes shopping at the) GAP --
--
3-Mule Suttles (6) [4]
His MLEs look very good, his career was long, and his rep among those who have previously written much about NeLers was great as well.
4-Billy Herman (4) [6]
War credit gets him above Sewell.
5-Clark Griffith (5) [14]
Vastly, vastly underrated by conventional stats.
6-Stan Hack (7) [8]
A shame that Pie Traynor is way more famous than the Hackster. Check out the RCAA/RCAP!
7-Wes Ferrell (9) [11]
Career ERA of 4.04, but compares well to the league/park average ERA of 4.72. Then add in the huge bat. Ruffing with more peak but less career.
8-Red Ruffing (8) [7]
Eppa Rixey plus a smidge of career length plus better peak plus he hit great, too.
9-Bucky Walters {new}
Hidden greatness? Faced strong opponents, didn’t have many gold glovers behind him, pitched real well and hit well too.
10-Joe Sewell (10) [20]
What is there NOT to like about him? He hit great for a shortstop, for any time period, not just his. He fielded great too.
11-John Beckwith (15) [5]
He looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew. But: if I were a GM and had to draft one guy at a young age to play his career (I hope) on my team, I would be a bit wary. He does rise this ballot, as I reconsider the harshness of the penalty I was imposing on him for his perceived 'issues'.
12-George Van Haltren (11) [15]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.
13-Cool Papa Bell (12) [16]
If I envision the basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability of a Willie Mays, Bell comes out as a borderline HoMer, even with a mediocre bat. And that’s what his rep makes him out to be.
14-Biz Mackey (14) [13]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here, above Roger B, with whom he looks comparable if you end Mackey’s career in 1932. Too many people thought Mackey was too good to leave him off my ballot.
15-John McGraw (13) [45]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician. How DARE I be one of the most ‘consensus’ voters last ballot with Mugsy on my ballot!

Disclosures:
Earl Averill [9]
A bit of credit for his PCL yrs. Compared to GVH, hit a bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch. Just missed at #16 this week!
Eppa Rixey [10]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in front of a fairly good defensive team in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?

Others in my top 34:
Pie Traynor …Fine player, fine rep; could he have played shortstop?
Cupid Childs …fine hitting second sacker, and playing IF in the 1890s was tough.
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Joe Medwick … a lot like Indian Bob
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Roger Bresnahan ...Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would hav emade him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone.
Hughie Jennings ….peak only.
Bill Monroe …reasonable argument as best NeL 2Bman.
George Sisler ...Equal of Chance and Beckley, although they sure are different!
Jake Beckley ...Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM, though.
Frank Chance ...More Win Shares per game than Henry Aaron! Lots and lots of positive intangibles
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs and KOs, but many UER and not in the top 5 of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
   18. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 21, 2005 at 02:20 PM (#1419741)
1954 Ballot

The wife and I are putting our condo up for sale this week and looking around the quiet hamlets of Kittery, Maine, and Eliot, Maine, for a cute little house to nest in for the next 30 years or so. With that in mind and after sampling a LOT of MLS web listings….

1. Arky Vaughan: pHOM. 1930s arts-and-crafts style shortstop in exclusive location with all the amenities, including charming leather, discerning taste in pitches, and plenty of power to the spacious gaps of Forbes Field. Ceiling is high peaked to accentuate comfy living! A high-end player at a journeyman’s price.

2. Mule Suttles: Power hitter’s paradise! This slugger comes with a high average, monstrous power, and peak/prime only a stitch lower than Greenberg’s. Includes hardwood glove.

3. John Beckwith: Move on up to the top with this deluxe all-peak/prime slugger! Combines ample offensive capabilities with defensive versatility.

4. Willie Wells: pHOM. One-floor living in this spacious, rambling home. Enjoy many solid years of offensive excellence and defensive adequacy with a touch of Mexican flair.

5. Hugh Duffy: Antique New Englander with high, vaulted ceilings.

5a. Martin Dihigo

6. Joe Medwick: Everything’s Ducky in this hitter’s haven. You’ll love the high average and MVP-level details like the triple-crown molding!

7. Jose Mendez: Black Diamond in the rough! Discover the pleasures of Cuba in this one-bedroom condo overlooking the surf.

8. Gavy Cravath: There’s no place like home. Small, fun cape restored with second-floor dormers and skylights that let in more light and bring out the beautiful details.

9. George Van Haltren: Turn of the century charm can be yours with this large Victorian. A little TLC will turn it into a showpiece.

10. Bucky Walters: Pass the Joneses or the Ferrells with new construction in improving neighborhood. Strong foundation with startlingly beautiful upstairs, including views of water and widow’s walk.

11. Wes Ferrell: Go for it! Deluxe second-story condominium with big rooms is sure to please.

12. George J. Burns: Price reduced!

13. Spots Poles: Handyman’s special for owner with imagination and vision. See the possibilities and make your dream house come true!

14. Stan Hack: Well-maintained home in working-class neighborhood.

14a. Ted Lyons

15. Bill Byrd: Under construction. Perfect home for a large family with many bedrooms and ample storage. Slated for completion Fall 2005.

NEW LISTINGS!
Hilton Smith: Be neighbors with the Deans. Very good property in nice neighborhood.

SEE MORE LISTINGS
Billy Herman: Two-story colonial with E-Z access to services and major roadways.

Red Ruffing and Eppa Rixey: Two-in-one. Rancher with adjoining office space, perfect for telecommuters working long hours at home.

Earl Averill: Live like the Snohomish nobility.
   19. TomH Posted: June 21, 2005 at 04:43 PM (#1420131)
barrel o laughs, doc. beautfiul. for Cravath, I might have added something about 'hidden charm' or 'must see to believe'
   20. DavidFoss Posted: June 21, 2005 at 05:15 PM (#1420209)
Includes hardwood glove.

:-) They just don't make 'em like that anymore!
   21. Gadfly Posted: June 21, 2005 at 05:29 PM (#1420263)
1954 BALLOT (Gadfly)

Have to do a quick and dirty ballot since work will steal the rest of my week.

1. Gavy Cravath
2. John Beckwith
3. Dick Redding
4. Cool Papa Bell
5. Willie Wells
6. Arky Vaughn
7. Mule Suttles
8. Charley Jones
9. Biz Mackey
10. Rube Waddell
11. Ben Taylor
12. Hugh Duffy
13. Earl Averill
14. Dick Lundy
15. Roger Bresnahan

16. Edd Roush
17. Joe Medwick

Notes: Arky Vaughn gets credit for around 400 career WS from me, but I’m slightly uneasy about that since he sat out 1944-1946 by his own choice.

Medwick has a lot of similarities to Vaughn (same career years, same early high peak), but is clearly a lesser player. In fact, he might be rated a little high at 17.

For the Negro Leaguers, Hilton Smith is interesting but I’ve always felt he got into the Hall of Fame on Buck O’Neil’s say so and have never been convinced that he was the best choice. I’d rather take Mendez for a peak Negro League pitching career.
   22. sunnyday2 Posted: June 21, 2005 at 10:21 PM (#1421082)
1954

1. Arky Vaughan (new, PHoM 1954). Easy choice.

2. Joe Medwick (new, PHoM 1954). Similar career pattern to Al Simmons and Chuck Klein, somewhere in between for ranking. Better than the Goose.

3. Hughie Jennings (3 last year-6-3, PHoM 1927).
4. Dobie Moore (4-4-5, PHoM 1942). Big year for SSs.

5. George Sisler (6-7-4, PHoM 1938). Almost Joe Jackson.

6. Tommy Bond (7-8-8, PHoM 1929). Highest pitcher peak ever. If merely a product of his time, then why did nobody else match him?

7. Mule Suttles (5-5-6). Great hitter, but one of a type.

8. Willie Wells (8). Big year for SSs.

9. Rube Waddell (9-9-7, PHoM 1932). Prime ERA+ 152 is best available.

10. Jose Mendez (11-12-x). Best NeL peak this side of Joe Williams.

11. Billy Herman (10). Replaces Leapin' Larry as the best available 2B.

12. Edd Roush (13-10-9). Best of a glut of VG to great CFers.

13. John Beckwith (12-15-15). Great hitter for an IF. Why didn't his contemporaries appreciate him more?

14. Chuck Klein (x-11-13). Similar to Medwick, great peak regardless of park effects.

15. Ed Williamson (x-x-10, PHoM 1922). Great for a while.

Dropped out: Addie Joss (14-x-14) and Larry Doyle (15-13-11).

Close: 16-20. Joss, Doyle, Cravath, Dean, Browning
21-25. Ruffing, Rixey, McCormick, Sewell, Duffy

Required: Hack (28), Averill (31)
   23. TomH Posted: June 22, 2005 at 01:23 PM (#1422539)
Gadfly - maybe you could make a quick comment or two on the guys who were in our top 10 last election, but not on your ballot (Rixey and Ruffing) to ensure we know you didn't accidentally overlook them. I do note that your ballot is devoid of any MLB pitcher between the years 1910 and 1948.
   24. Howie Menckel Posted: June 23, 2005 at 12:48 AM (#1424440)
1954 ballot, which is our 57th

for once, few changes up or down; 'also-rans' have solidified for now

1. ARKY VAUGHAN - Overrated by this group, but still has to rank No. 1. Six full seasons over 140 OPS+, two more over 130. I could not find any indication that he was seen as a good glove man, but he doesn't face the demerits of a Browning or a Doyle, either.Slipped badly after being traded to BKN, in spite of dilution of talent due to WW II.
2. MULE SUTTLES - Finally grabs an 'elect me' spot from me. I do significantly discount for his extremely favorable parks; not as convinced on the 'pitcher's park' data; I don't particularly discount for his defense; but I do factor in the likelihood of his OBP not being dazzling. That's 3 discounts out of 4 options, basically, yet I still see him as No. 2 on this ballot.

3. EPPA RIXEY - Could not have picked a more brutal time frame to come aboard; I want him in the HOM, but he's never been quite good enough over these years to overcome the tide of newcomers. But let's not lose sight of him, especially with backlog years just ahead. If only he had one huge year.
4. JOHN BECKWITH - As I now more heavily factor in a SS-3B bonus, I am finally convinced he does belong. Too bad that conclusion came in a tough voting era, but he'll get in fairly soon..
5. CLARK GRIFFITH - Flopped with Rixey, slipped below Beckwith last year. 1890s still are underrepresented. It's remarkable how much better Griffith's W-L was than the teams he pitched for.
6. WILLIE WELLS - Not sold on the Appling comparison, MLEs and other comps put me in the 'better than Sewell' camp, but not sure where that puts him. Moves up to here on his longevity, which is quite impressive.
7. GEORGE SISLER - Slides under Beckwith, and for the first time I wonder if he'll ever get in. I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
8. JOE MEDWICK - Debuts right in the middle, appropriate in that he could go either direction on my ballot. Has the monster year, the big 3, even a 'big 9 or 10.' Fell off a little too soon, which makes him problematic.
9. JAKE BECKLEY - Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? Not his fault that the ABCs clogged his position earlier in his career. I wish fewer voters were so enamored with peak at the exclusion of this unusual career.
10. COOL PAPA BELL - Maintains his slot from last year. We're wise to realize the results don't match the rep, but great fielder-long career-decent hitter is quite valuable. Another Max Carey?
11. MICKEY WELCH - Also maintains slot. If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the old Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
12. PETE BROWNING - Ditto. Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time. Have newer voters taken a sufficient look at him?
13. RED RUFFING - Definitely not as good as Rixey, in my mind. But gotta love his overcoming losing four toes on his left foot in a mine accident as a kid. Seemed to have something left when he drafted for 1943, so a little war credit cinches a ballot spot.
14. CUPID CHILDS - Struggling to stay on my ballot against fierce competition. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on these ballots. But I'm starting to wonder if I'm just still voting for him out of habit.
15. BILLY HERMAN - Hmm, not as impressed as I thought I'd be. Loses, barely, to Childs head-to-head in the first go-round. I have to study him further in future years; he'll be around a while.

TOP 10s OFF BALLOTS/CLOSE CONSIDERATION
HILTON SMITH - Will never get my vote before Cannonball Dick, who at the moment is just out of the top 25.
STAN HACK - Thought sure I'd vote for him, but less even than meets the eye when you take away for diluted war year performance while others are getting war credit.
ERNIE LOMBARDI - I need to keep him on my radar in an amazingly deep 'rookie' class. At first glance, it bothers me that he had a hard time getting to 100 games played. A good forerunner of the problem we'll have with 1-inning closers. You aren't helping when you aren't playing.
DICK LUNDY - Falls back off the ballot, but I'm one voter who could swayed back in the 1955 ballot discussion.
BILL MONROE - Spent years battling Grant for 'one slot' in the HOM, which may have been unfair to both. Are the new wave of ballot-enders really more worthy than Monroe?
HUGHIE JENNINGS - The Hughie love is over. One solid season short of an "elect me" slot on my ballot. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
JOE SEWELL - Back off the ballot. Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting.
WES FERRELL - 117 ERA+ not dazzling, but it's misleading with the late-career bad IP. Significant hitting bonus, too. Kind of a weird player, too bad he didn't play some OF on his off-days.
EARL AVERILL - I think you need a 'major' amount of 'minors' credit and quite the fielding bonus to get him to the top 10. We'll see 30 guys like this before we're done, and none of 'em belong in the HOM. Is it 'Ah-verill,' or "AY-verill,' by the way?
EDD ROUSH - I have a problem with the games he missed in a lot of years, but his D and high level of play combined with career length gives Roush strong consideration. Waiting for a weak year.
BIZ MACKEY - I see more Freehan or R Ferrell than anything else so far, and not sure he contributed as much as the countless other Negro League candidates we're mulling. Not ruled out yet.
   25. KJOK Posted: June 23, 2005 at 01:16 AM (#1424579)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. ARKY VAUGHAN, SS. .692 OWP. 598 RCAP, 7,721 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Super offensive player in an era where SS’s didn’t hit.

2. WILLIE WELLS, SS. . Estimated 114 OPS+ over 10,836 PA’s. Probably better fielder than Beckwith. Major League Comp is Luke Appling.

3. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. . Estimated 137 OPS+ over 8,010 estimated PA’s, and played left side infield. 221 WSaR and .774 Pennants Added. THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues? Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

4. HANK GREENBERG, 1B. .722 OWP. 347 RCAP. 6,096 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. One of best all-around 1Bmen of his era.

5. STAN HACK, 3B. .631 OWP. 370 RCAP. 8,506 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. One of the few good hitting 3B of his era.

6. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

7. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane, except for Santop.

8. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

9. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

10. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

11. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

12. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

13. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

14. MULE SUTTLES, LF/1B. Estimated 137 OPS+ over 10,163 PAs. After adjusting for parks and eras, I think he’s maybe slightly above Ben Taylor offensively, but a little less valuable defensively.

15. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

BUCKY WALTERS, P. 161 RSAA, 166 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings put him at the bottom of the “pitcher glut” that is just off my ballot.

HILTON SMITH, P. Lefty Gomez similar, which won’t get him on the ballot.

RETURNEES:

EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP. 321 RCAP. 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp. Better than Bob Johnson by a little.

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not quite as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Ben Taylor as best early century 1st baseman due to playing time.

DICK LUNDY, SS. Estimated 92 OPS+ over 9,160 PA’s with at least VERY GOOD defense.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior. Even Pennants Added likes Tiernan.

BOB JOHNSON, LF. .651 OWP. 319 RCAP. 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Goes to near head of the class of OF glut, but falls just short of ballot.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

BILLY HERMAN, 2B. .563 OWP. 298 RCAP. 8,641 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Hard to see him as much higher than Childs or Lazzeri.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.

RED RUFFING, P. 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Good for awhile, and could hit, but I’d vote for Ferrell or even Welch first.
   26. KJOK Posted: June 23, 2005 at 01:22 AM (#1424594)
Ahgg, #4 should have been MEDWICK replacing GREENBURG from last ballot...

REVISION:

4. JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP. 267 RCAP. 8,142 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Doesn’t get remembered for his also excellent defense.
   27. Michael Bass Posted: June 23, 2005 at 02:18 AM (#1424803)

4. JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP. 267 RCAP. 8,142 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Doesn’t get remembered for his also excellent defense.


Not that defensive metrics are perfect, but there is some serious disagreement here.

He gets a B- in WS, which is decent for a corner OF, but hardly excellent some modern B- LF include Tim Raines and Kevin McReynolds, neither of whom would get an "excellent" tag. His career FRAA is...er...1.
   28. Sean Gilman Posted: June 23, 2005 at 02:53 AM (#1424882)
1954

1. Arky Vaughan (-)--And it isn’t particularly close.

2. Willie Wells (3)--Long career, good peak. I think his peak was probably higher than the WS translations show, but it’s impossible (for me at least) to tell how much.

3. Pete Browning (4)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. (1927)

4. Mule Suttles (5)--Trails Browning and Jones on peak, but more career value than either of them. (1949)

5. John Beckwith (6)--Another high peak, non-conventional major league player.

6. Charley Jones (7)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

7. Hughie Jennings (8)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

8. Cupid Childs (9)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

9. Billy Herman (10)--I agree with those who see him as close to Cupid. I’ve got them in a dead-heat, with Cupid having the slightly better peak.

10. Tommy Leach (11)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

11. Clark Griffith (12)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

12. Stan Hack (13)--Another tight group with Hack, Doyle and Sisler.

13. Larry Doyle (14)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

14. George Sisler (15)--That’s a nice peak.

15. Cool Papa Bell (16)--That's a lot of career value.

16. Eppa Rixey (17)
17. Joe Sewell (18)
18. Ed Williamson (19)
19. Jose Mendez (20)
20. Carl Mays (21)
21. Red Ruffing (22)
22. Wes Ferrell (23)
23. Dave Bancroft (24)
24. Roger Bresnahan (25)
25. Dick Redding (26)

30. Joe Medwick
34. Earl Averill
50. Bucky Walters
65. Hilton Smith
   29. KJOK Posted: June 23, 2005 at 03:15 AM (#1424910)
4. JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP. 267 RCAP. 8,142 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Doesn’t get remembered for his also excellent defense.

Not that defensive metrics are perfect, but there is some serious disagreement here.

He gets a B- in WS, which is decent for a corner OF, but hardly excellent some modern B- LF include Tim Raines and Kevin McReynolds, neither of whom would get an "excellent" tag. His career FRAA is...er...1.


Well, when we STARTED this project Medwick had a 105 rating from BP, but I see that he's been revised now to 100.

However, B- in Win Shares is a VERY GOOD to EXCELLENT rating for a corner OF. These are the ONLY qualifying post-19th century LF'ers with ratings higher than B-:

Simmons, Al
Sheckard
Clarke
Mertes
Musial
Veach
Vosmik
Galan
   30. KJOK Posted: June 23, 2005 at 03:18 AM (#1424913)
These are ALL the B- Left Fielders (same criteria):

Burns, George
Rose
Alou, Moises
Raines
Wheat
Williams, Ken
Medwick
McReynolds
Minoso
Magee
Cruz, Jose Sr
Baker, Dusty
   31. Al Peterson Posted: June 23, 2005 at 01:41 PM (#1425315)
1954 ballot. We’ll get quality in the electees again this year.

1. Willie Wells (3). Longtime shortstop, could hit and field, what’s not to like? Maybe helped by home park but he did enough overall to take a high ballot spot.

2. Arky Vaughan (-). Him and Wells took different paths in getting to a similar value in my book. You wouldn’t go wrong with either.

3. Joe Medwick (-). I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

4. Earl Averill (4). Highly productive for a centerfielder, he started ML career late after playing semi-pro in Washington state and then three years in the PCL. By comparison to Bob Johnson, Averill had teams which outperformed Pythag W-L by 18 games (1929-39).

5. Bob Johnson (5). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. Hang in there big guy; I’ll try and convince others…

6. Clark Griffith (6). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

7. Hughie Jennings (7). A peak to be proud of, especially for a SS. When you can be in the running for best player in the game in a certain time period that gives you a bonus. A rough style of play in during his heyday means careers were shorter.

8. Dick Redding (9). Pitched a good long time in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

9. Wally Berger (12). Another slugger, cut short due to injuries. Right about here the difference between the players to me is getting pretty miniscule.

10. John Beckwith (11). One of the more interesting fellas on the ballot. Hitter with questions about the glove. I’m assuming he found a way to be adequate with the leather.

11. John McGraw (22). Lived on the bases while playing – check out the OBP. The issue is his playing amount is on the light side.

12. Edd Roush (10). From Baseballlibrary.com: “June 8, 1920: The Reds' Edd Roush falls asleep in CF during a long argument in the IF. Heinie Groh goes out to wake him, but the ump ejects Roush for delaying the game.” When we wasn’t sleeping he was hitting .300 and playing some pretty good CF.

13. Biz Mackey (14). Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost.

14. Red Ruffing (16). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey is right around here also but a little lower.

15. Pete Browning (18). Even with league discounts he swung some mean lumber. Career OPS+ = 162 which puts him in company with names like Foxx, McGwire, Frank Thomas. Discount it because of AA play? At the OPS+ = 147 level you're talking Heilmann, McCovey, and Schmidt. That's some pretty lofty company. Batting Average Placement within league 1882-1891: 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 3, -, 1, 3. Had a career .341 average in a league environment of .257 . Offensive Winning Percentage - .745. His guy was a WOW when hitting.

Hanging down below:

16-20:Suttles, Hack, C.P. Bell, Rixey, Herman
21-25:Chance, Poles, Mullane, Byrd, Ryan
26-30:Waddell, Mendez, Van Haltren, Leach, Hack Wilson
31-35:Bridges, Fielder Jones, Childs, Lundy, Cicotte
36-40: Duffy, Sewell, Willis, Grimes, Dobie Moore
41-45: Veach, Camilli, Wes Ferrell, Mays, Roy Thomas
46-50: Taylor, Cravath, Quinn, Mike Griffin, Cuyler

New folks:

Bucky Walters is probably among the next couple of pitchers if I ranked further. An interesting person he would have been as a pitcher from the start. Hilton Smith got the once over – more impressed by others.

Top 10 Returnees off-ballot:

Herman, Hack and Rixey are in that 16-20 grouping so they have merit, just not enough for a ballot spot this time. Ferrell is in the 40s behind a bunch of other pitchers. Add a year or two more to his record and I’d like much better.
   32. SWW Posted: June 23, 2005 at 02:28 PM (#1425383)
Not much change. Kind of a chaotic week, so most of the commentary remains unchanged.

1954 Ballot
1)Joseph Floyd Vaughan – “Arky”
I’m not sure anyone would have ranked him as the second best shortstop in the history of the game before Bill James did it (SABR, McGuire & Gormley, and the Sporting News all left him off their Top 100 lists), so his burnished reputation stands as some sort of monument to Win Shares. Sterling numbers, including eight seasons in the top 10 in Win Shares. And the second top candidate to pass away before his first ballot in the past three years.
2)Willie James Wells – “Devil”
Superlative projected Win Shares. General consensus that he trails only Pop Lloyd as the best shortstop in Negro League history. My appreciation for his numbers is reinforcing my suspicion that I’m ranking Cool Papa Bell too low.
3)George Suttles – “Mule”
Has a slight edge over Sisler on durability and longer prime. I think he might just be on the cusp of meritorious immortality.
4) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
I can’t bring myself to punish him for the strange shape of his career. His highs are exceptional, and his lows are not so low as to be invisible, like Jennings or Hack Wilson.
5)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Is it the spitball that people don’t like about him? I’ll be curious to see how Gaylord Perry fares in the voting. At least when Grimes threw junk, he did it with the permission of the rules.
6)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
I continue to suspect that my placement for Bell is low. As someone who gives much credence to career, the projected Win Shares impress me. Even the adjusted Win Shares projections impress me. I find him well ahead of the glut.
7)Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
If Rixey had some standout seasons, his career might look a little more like this. Compares very favorably with Grimes; I can see him moving up in the next couple years.
8)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
I think for me, the thing that distinguishes him from someone like Harry Hooper is how late his career started. I’m not giving him credit for seasons missed, but his career is unique in the late start combined with gaudy career numbers.
9)Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I place a lot of value in a lengthy, Win Share-rich career. This is why he continues to maintain his perch on my ballot. I continue to be troubled by the virtually flat line that his his career, though. Would one peak have killed you, Jake?
10)Stanley Camfield Hack
Third basemen with lots of Win Shares are hard to come by. I’m enjoying him sitting right next to Beckley. Jake gets recognition for his era, while Stan deserves a nod for his position.
11) William Jennings Bryan Herman – “Billy”
Getting more acclaim from the electorate than I might have expected. Definitely the top second baseman currently eligible.
12)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Cautiously low to start. I do like the Win Shares, both for career and four top 10 seasons. Excellent black/gray ink. Until him, Suttles was the only left fielder on my ballot. That was surprising.
13)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. And I’ll be rhyming his named with “jewel” until someone decides to correct me.
14)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like.
15)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
I’m giving a lot of credence to peer and expert rankings here, so your mileage may vary.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Howard Earl Averill
A victim of a crowded ballot. He and Edd Roush have been hanging together on my ballot, and now they hang together at what I’ll call 16 & 17.
John Beckwith
Another victim of the crowd. We’ve not heard the last of him.

Just Wanted To Mention
George Hartley McQuinn
Several years ago, I wrote a play in which I needed a character to be a lifelong fan of a player who was good, but maybe not quite worthy of this man’s particular level of admiration. My friend Ted and I did some research, and we settled on McQuinn, pride of the 1944 pennant-winning Browns. He is certainly not sufficiently meritorious to join this particular Hall, but I am indebted to his career for its use to me, and wanted to take a moment to pay homage. Thanks, George.
   33. Rob_Wood Posted: June 23, 2005 at 03:20 PM (#1425492)
1954 ballot:

1. Arky Vaughan - all-time great ss
2. Willie Wells - all-time great negro leaguer
3. Billy Herman - big drop, but still great
4. Jake Beckley - support is gathering steam?
5. Red Ruffing - great pitcher, more later
6. Mule Suttles - great negro league slugger
7. Tommy Bridges - great curve ball (PCL, WWII)
8. George Van Haltren - 1890's CFer
9. John Beckwith - very good negro league infielder
10. Earl Averill - very good CFer (PCL credit)
11. Stan Hack - underrated third sacker
12. Bob Johnson - underrated left fielder
13. Joe Medwick - right next to Indian Bob
14. Eppa Rixey - good for a long time
15. Joe Sewell - very good shortstop

I believe I am voting for all the players in the group's top ten from last year. I am not yet convinced that Hilton Smith, the only other newbie that I seriously considered, deserves a slot on my ballot.
   34. TomH Posted: June 23, 2005 at 06:15 PM (#1425939)
Rob, you are lookin like a strong consensus man! But in order to Really be a centrist, you'll have to persuade some of us on the merits of Tommy Bridges
   35. Rob_Wood Posted: June 23, 2005 at 07:01 PM (#1426131)
Yes, I have been delinquent in presenting arguments in favor of players (typically pitchers) that I have significantly higher than other voters. I will take up the banner for Ruffing and Bridges -- but it won't be until I get back from a vacation around July 4.
   36. Dolf Lucky Posted: June 23, 2005 at 08:55 PM (#1426658)
1 (-)Arky Vaughan--Best career, peak, and prime on the board. I have to believe he was better than Wells

2 (1)Willie Wells--Although Wells was no slouch himself. A nice 1-2 combo

3 (3)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

4 (4)Billy Herman--Similar career and peak to Dickey, according to WARP. I give a bigger catcher bonus, so Herman starts at #4.

5 (-)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

6 (6)Chuck Klein--Much better peak than anyone in the OF glut. Plus he was dominant in Earl Weaver Baseball.

7 (7)Red Ruffing--Pretty clearly the best pure pitcher available.

8 (8)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

9 (-)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

10 (9)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

11 (10)Stan Hack--This one surprised me. I can't say I knew much about him, but I don't see any reason to keep him off the ballot, especially coming from such a historically weak position. The numbers show him as Heinie Groh-lite.

12 (11)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

13 (12)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

14 (-)Burleigh Grimes--Obviously, not as peak-heavy as some of the others, and there were certainly some below-average seasons thrown in here, but I think that doesn't hurt a pitcher as much as it does a hitter.

15 (-)Eddie Cicotte--I've got a thing for guys who throw games.

Dropping out: Sewell, Beckwith, Suttles, Jennings.

Top 10 omissions: Suttles and Beckwith are right there, and will very likely be back on the ballot again soon. Averill is part of an indistinguishable OF glut to me, and is unlikely to make a ballot. Rixey lacks the requisite peak to ever make a ballot.
   37. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: June 24, 2005 at 12:20 AM (#1427153)
#### FUCK #### FUCK My computer decided to suit on me 3/4 of the way thorugh my ballot. ARGH!

Vaughn and Jud Wilson make my PHOM this year

1. Arky Vaughn (x, PHOM 1954) - Easy #1 choice this year, would have been #1 last year as well. Monster peak, good career totals, and one of the top four MLB SS's ever with Wagner, ARod, and Ripken.

2. Hughie Jennings (3, PHOM 1938) - Still has the best three year WS and WARP totals, even with Vaughn on the ballot.

3. Mule Suttles (4, PHOM 1948) - Big HR hitter would would probably have hit 500 in MLB. Quite possibly the NeL all-time HR champ.

4. John Beckwith (5, PHOM 1949) - Big hitter would coudl play some 3B, he is slightly under Suttles due to concerns I have about his defense (I doubt he ever would have played SS in MLB) and some character issues. Modern comps would be Dick Allen or Albert Belle at 3B/1B isntead of LF.

5. Joey Medwick (x) - his one great year inflates his peak a bit so he is a little lower than where my system would palcehim. Still a formidable force at his best and better than HOMer Goslin. Currently the top of my PHOM backlog.

6. Willie Wells (6) - I have some concerns about his peak based on the WS MLE's. If I went completely by then he wouldn't be in my top 10, eventual PHOMer, however.

7. Stan Hack (7) - I have a thing for infielders taht are OBP machines, so Hack is a guy I understandably like. One of the 10 best 3B ever by my calculations. Why is it that Cubs 3B got so screwed by the BBWAA?

8. Wes Ferrell (8) - While not the best pticheron teh board, he was the best player to ahve played the position of pitcher. A 100 OPS+ from the 9 slot was a huge advantage for his teams.

9. Billy Herman (9) - Mostly likely a HOMer when all si said and done. Nothing terribly fantastic, but he had a nice career, a nice prime and a nice peak. He may be the player that many think that Joe Sewell was (the guy who did nothing special and is thus overlooked).

10. Cupid Childs (10, PHOM 1939) - I still think he is deserving of the HOM but we ahve a very strong ballot. Nice peak and good career length for a middle infielder of his era.

11a. Ted Lyons
11. Hugh Duffy (11) - Best 1890's OFer left on the board based on his peak.

12a. Bill Terry
12. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era, behind only Smokey Joe Williams and Williams may be the best NeL pitcher ever. He is my imaginery PHOM line.

13. Clark Griffith (13) - A very nice DERA for a 19th century pitcher (3.99). He has fallen a littel due to concerns I have about the level ofpitching during the 1890's. I would much rather induct him than a guy like Mickey Welch.

14. Bucky Walters (x) - Kicks Dizzy Dean off my ballot. Walter's peak was as godo as Dean's in my system and he had a few useful years around that peak. Still not quite sure what to make of the war years with pitchers so Walters could experience a slide in the next few ballots.

15. Earl Averill (15) - Hops over Dizzy Dean to make my ballot. While he didn't have the peak of a guy like Medwick or even Duffy, he did have 10-12 years as a consistent All-Star performer. Kind of like a Bob Johnson plus.
   38. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: June 24, 2005 at 12:31 AM (#1427173)
16-20 Dean, Moore, Rixey, Waddell, GVH
21-25 Sisler, Bresnahan, Mendez, Roush, Willis
26-30 Mackey, Browning, Bell, Cravath, Berger
31-35 Lundy, Monroe, Ruffing, Veach, Doyle
36-40 Sewell, Shocker, Johnson, Leach, Thomas
41-45 McGraw, Scales, H. Smith, Wilson, Chance
46-50 Traynor, Cicotte, Burns, Taylor, Ryan (!!!, deap ballot!)

Newbies

43. Hilton Smith - I have yet to get a real handle on him but the MLE that we have impress me. The WS are a bit screwy with some very low numbers mixed amongst some very big numbers. It is possible that he was Dean or walters, in which case I am underrating him. It is possible that he was Joss or Wood, in which case I am overrating him. It is also possible that his peak should be leveled out, in which case he will quickly drop out of my top 50. So I guess I coudl see him anywhere from #16 (Dean) to outside my top 75. Got it?

Required Disclosures

18. Eppa Rixey
20. GVH
21. George Sisler - These three guys are only off my ballot due to the depth. They are likely to get back on but if we keep having calsses liek we have had recently they may find that climb harder than originally thought.

26. Mackey
28. Bell - Both of these players suffer due to peak concerns but again I have no real reason to dislike either.

33. Red Ruffing - I see nothing special about Ruffing, in fact as I look at this I may even be overrating him. If you take out his Red Sox years, you get a more impressive ERA+, but he still lacks any sort of peak. However, I cant' argue with a Yankee making the HOM.

Beckley and Welch are two guys I have not supported since day one. Beckley lacks peak 9Never oen of the top 15 players in a league with only 8-10 teams). Welch is overrated because he got 300 wins, if he had pitched in the 19th century I doubt he would have cracked 200.
   39. Esteban Rivera Posted: June 24, 2005 at 04:57 PM (#1428242)
1954 Ballot:

1. Arky Vaughan – Fantastic hitter and what I understand to be better than average defense at shortstop.

2. Willie Wells – Has a lengthy career of being very good to great. He is definitely a HOMer in my view.

3. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

5. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

6. Mule Suttles - Still murky on how good he really was. On what I can safely sort out, this spot seems reasonable.

7. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

8. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

9. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

10. John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had.

11. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower third on my ballot. Will have to see if his career holds up when new candidates arrive.

12. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

13. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

14. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

15. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.


Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Billy Herman – Next in line to make my ballot as soon as a spot opens up.

Stan Hack – The war discount keeps him of my ballot for now, but he is close.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.
   40. yest Posted: June 24, 2005 at 07:40 PM (#1428628)
1954 ballot
Vaughan and Wells make my PHOM this year (BTW John they both play shortstop)

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Arky Vaughan led the NL in putouts 3 times led the Nl in assits 3 times (make my personal HoM this year)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Willie Wells nothing new to say on him (make my personal HoM this year)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
8. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
10. Stan Hack what’s the hall’s problem with cubs third baseman
11. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
13. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
14. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
15. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
16. Billy Herman most putouts 7 times
17. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown
18. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
19. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
20. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
21. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg.
22. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
23. Moose Suttles with I had some antidotal information on him especially quotes
24. Hilton Smith see his thread
25. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
26. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
27. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
28. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
29. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
30. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
31. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
32. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
33. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
34. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
35. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
John Beckwith I’m not enough confident enough in his case to put him higher then he is
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is just off my ballot
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot
   41. TomH Posted: June 24, 2005 at 07:50 PM (#1428652)
yest - quick clarifying Q fer ya -

when you state "Earl Averill (and Ruffing)... just off my ballot", does that mean they are just below the last guys you listed at #35?
   42. OCF Posted: June 24, 2005 at 08:27 PM (#1428754)
In the annual race for the lowest consensus score, karlmagnus has about a point and a half lead on yest - substantial, but not beyond the reach of the changes that will be caused by the >20 voters yet to be heard from. Which outlier will you come closer to agreeing with?
   43. Trevor P. Posted: June 24, 2005 at 10:03 PM (#1429058)
1954

1) Arky Vaughan

Career length acceptable; peak mindblowing.

2) Mule Suttles

Lots of quality ABs from The Mule over a sumptuously long career. Are there any other serious candidates with a peak season over 200 OPS+?

3) John Beckwith

Vaughan-esque, without the matching glove.

4) Willie Wells

Did a little bit of a reconsideration of Wells this week, what with the Arkmeister appearing on the ballot. Thought he might come out on top; instead, he slides to just below Beckwith. Is essentially Billy Herman playing a more difficult position and accumulating 1,000 more PAs (after war credit is doled out).

5) GVH
Long career, OPS+ above 120 (sort of a personal benchmark figure for me, the sabermetric equivalent of 2500 hits), and held his own as a pitcher. Gets a small bonus simply due to his versatility in 1888-90. Everyone eligible that’s ranked higher according to HOF standards is in the HOM aside from Hugh Duffy.

6) Stan Hack

Best MLB third baseman since Home Run Baker, in my estimation. Average fielder, but I do like the walks. If we're seeking positional equilibrium, we would be remiss not to take a very close look at Hack.

7) Eppa Rixey
8) Red Ruffing

After taking a new look at Rixey, Grimes, and Ruffing, I decided that Grimes doesn't measure up, and have dropped him accordingly.

9) Jake Beckley

Was never a superstar, but amazingly consistent. Rafael Palmeiro was never the best 1B either, but that's who Beckley reminds me of.

10) Wally Schang

Moved up this week.

Schang: 6423 PA, 117 OPS+. Batting average 4 points above league average; OBP 44 points above.
Dickey: 7060 PA, 127 OPS+. Batting average 33 points above league average; OBP 29 points above.
Cochrane: 6206 PA, 128 OPS+. Batting average 26 points above league average; OBP 53 points above.
Hartnett: 7297 PA, 126 OPS+ Batting average 11 points above league average; OBP 23 points above.

Now, I'm not saying Schang is the equal of Dickey, Hartnett, or Cochrane. And admittedly, that's a pretty quick and dirty analysis posted above. But those three have the red carpet to the HOM laid out for them, and Schang struggles to break into the ballot's top 30? Color me confused.

11) Earl Averill
12) Edd Roush

With minimal PCL credit (not a big fan), Averill seems better than Roush.

13) Tommy Bridges (new)

Aside from his rookie season (and the 29 innings tacked on to the end of his career) Bridges NEVER posted a below average PRAA. I think he's hall-worthy, but just barely.

14) Dick Redding

Like his career, especially when compared to recent NeL candidates Hilton Smith and Bill Byrd.

15) Wes Ferrell

Peak-a-riffic.

Disclosures:

Billy Herman - not feeling the love. A difficult candidate to judge in terms of war credit: was he having a late career renaissance with that 135 OPS+ in 1943? Or was that a fluke, and had he turned into the player who posted OPS+ of 101-103-95 in the three seasons prior? For now, I have him close to Sewell, but a few slots above - about #22.

Bucky Walters is in an ever-increasing pitcher glut with Mickey Welch, Eddie Cicotte, Rube Waddell, and now Grimes. Think I might like him the best, though.

Joe Medwick is essentially Bob Johnson, with an SLG-heavy OPS+ and a slightly higher peak. Can't justify having one on the ballot without the other. Much prefer Goose Goslin, if I had to choose. High 30s.

Hilton Smith - not impressed by the conversions.
   44. yest Posted: June 24, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1429353)
yest - quick clarifying Q fer ya -

when you state "Earl Averill (and Ruffing)... just off my ballot", does that mean they are just below the last guys you listed at #35?


yes
   45. Rick A. Posted: June 25, 2005 at 01:38 AM (#1429575)
PHOM
Arky Vaughan
Willie Wells

1954 Ballot
1.Arky Vaughan – Easily one of the 5 best shortstops. Elected PHOM in 1954
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
3.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
4.Willie Wells – Solid HOM shortstop. Elected PHOM in 1954
5.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me.
6.Hughie Jennings – Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
7.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Elected PHOM.in 1945.
8.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
9.Burleigh Grimes – Jumps up when I give a big years bonus. Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1940
10.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
11.Red Ruffing – Moves up in re-evaluation.
12.Mule Suttles – Not as high a peak as Beckwith, but a better career.
13.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak.
14.Stan Hack – Was a fan of his since I first heard of him. Very close to Heinie Groh, even with war discount. Better than Pie Traynor.
15.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position.

Required Disclosures
Billy Herman Over-rated him last week. Just off the ballot
Earl Averill Just off the ballot
   46. Kelly in SD Posted: June 25, 2005 at 05:04 AM (#1429832)
A Quickie ... Darn Bar-prep class

1954 Ballot:

1. Arky Vaughan: Best shortstop in majors in 1933 (tied w/ Cronin), 1934, 1935, 1936, 1938, 1939, and 1940. Best shortstop in NL in 1932 (tied w/ Bartell) and 1943.
1933: 4th best player in baseball (tied)
1934: 5th best player in baseball
1935: best player in baseball
1936: 5th best player in baseball (tied)
1938: 2nd best player in baseball (tied)
1940: 4th best player in baseball (tied)
1943: 8th best player in baseball (tied)
That is pretty impressive. All placements are for white majors only of course.

2. Willie Wells: Excellent long career at a high level

3. Mickey Welch: weight of the evidence. Record against other HoMers. Relatively poor defensive support compared to most other HoMers of his era. Over 300 wins. Extremely durable – Galvin and Keefe had more innings pitched.

4. Charley Jones: Top 10 talent from 1878 to 1885. Great hitter.

5. Hugh Duffy: Decided to go with the raw numbers. Great defense. Excellent hitter. 2 times best position player in the league.

6. Mule Suttles: Great power. Willie Stargell.

7. Pete Browning: Great power, just a fantastic hitter.

8. Wes Ferrell: one of the best 4 pitchers of his era: Grove, Hubbell, and Dean. Fantastic first 8 years.

9. Ducky-Wucky Medwick:
1933: 10th in NL, 4th in NL OF
1934: 15th in NL, 5th in NL OF
1935: 6th in ML (tied), 3rd in NL, 2nd in Majors and NL OF
1936: 3rd in ML (tied), 2nd in NL, 1st in Majors and NL OF
1937: Best player in baseball
1938: 12th in NL, 3rd in NL OF
1939: 13th in NL, 3rd in NL OF
1941: 11th in NL, 4th in NL OF (tied)
1942: 16th in NL, 6th in NL OF (tied)

I may have him too highly rated. Hopefully, he won’t be elected this election so I can think more.

10. Bucky Walters: Do I have him the highest? 4 time all-star, 3 times best in league. I reduce his career win shares and his prime score for World War II efforts. 3 years over 30 win shares. No eligible pitcher has more. Feller is the only pitcher with more. Only Dean has more Black Ink.

11. Earl Averill: Consistent at a very high level for 10 years. One year of credit for PCL play. Didn’t have the high 30s scores that first tier 1930s players did, so doesn’t have the peak that others did.

12. Dobie Moore: Best peak among eligible shortstops (other than Vaughan). If only he hadn’t jumped out of that whorehouse window.

13. Vic Willis: Excellent pitcher for Boston and Pittsburgh. 2 times best in NL, 2 times second in NL.

14. Spots Poles: Who was he? Cool Papa Bell, but a better hitter – though a shorter career? I am giving the benefit of the doubt to his translations as opposed to Mackey, Beckwith, and Bell.

15. George Burns: Great leadoff hitter, left fielder of the teens. Took a lot of walks for his era. Could steal a base.

Top 10s and others not on my ballot:
Beckwith is very close to my ballot – always just one or two spots off. If there have been new translations, the ranking will change.

Hack: Looking closer at him, but this ballot is stacked.

Billy Herman: In my top 20-25. Can I have a 25-man ballot now please?

Red Ruffing: See Eppa Rixey

Eppa Rixey: See Red Ruffing. These two pitchers were above average for a long time, but I’ll take the peak and prime of Ferrell, Willis, and Walters, rather than the careers of Rixey and Ruffing.
Any truth to the rumor that Ruffing tanked games to get out of Boston? I remember reading this somewhere, but I don’t have time currently.
   47. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: June 25, 2005 at 09:17 PM (#1430603)
Happy 2nd annual 39th birthday to John Murphy.

Also, anyone know what's going on with early 20th century White Sox pitchers. I've run 3 of them through my unearned run adjuster (- is bad for the pitcher, + is good) and here's how they come out:

Ed Walsh: -44, causing his ERA to go up by 0.13 and his ERA+ to drop by 10 points.

Ted Lyons: -56 (2nd worst raw number of all I've checked on), causing his ERA to go u pby 0.12 and his ERA+ to drop by 4 points.

Red Faber: -66 (!) - worst raw number of all so far; causes his ERA to go up 0.14, and his ERA+ to drop by 5 points.

Dutch Leonard is still the king (his ERA goes up by 0.15) but he's hanging on for dear life. Maybe he should be named an honorary White Sox?
   48. Michael Bass Posted: June 25, 2005 at 09:37 PM (#1430667)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

Smith is a tough one to place. I think a slightly lesser Rube Waddell (in terms of career shape/value, not headcase factor) is fair. Medwich simply doesn't impress me as much as he does you guys, which is fair enough. His defense was average, which keeps his impressive batting peak down. I think the Bob Johnson comparison is a fair one, though he's going to get a lot more votes than Johnson. He's slightly below Johnson (and another decent comp: Sisler) on my ballot, ahead of Hack because he loses less to a war discount than Stan does.

1. Arky Vaughan (new) - I rate him as the 4th best shortstop of all-time (behind Wagner, Lloyd, and Ripken). One of the more obvious #1s since I've been voting; a lot of our no-brainers seems to have come on the ballot in pairs, which is odd. At any rate, the only inner-circle guy on this ballot.

2. Wes Ferrell (3) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

3. Hughie Jennings (4) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

4. Billy Herman (5) - Truly great all around play, both on the field and in HOM profile (peak, prime, career). The little things add up to a decent amount more than Hack.

5. José Méndez (6) - I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

I think this is the electorate's single most underrated player. This is in part because he does not show up so much in the Negro League awards and polls, because his best work was in Cuba, at a time when all of the best Negro League players were playing in Cuba. Compare Mendez's career to Ed Walsh who, deservingly, cruised into the HOM. Was Mendez's pitching height as high as Walsh's? Likely not, but it wasn't that far off. Some of that gap is closed by Mendez's hitting, which was excellent for a pitcher. Some more of that gap is closed by Mendez having a little value after his peak (when he came back from the injury, he had one solid season left in him), something Walsh had zero of. I'd rate Walsh above Mendez, but so much difference that Walsh flies in on his first ballot while Mendez struggles to break double figure ballots? Doesn't make sense to me.

6. John Beckwith (7) - Liking him more and more, as his offense looks better and better, plus I've upgraded my assessment of his defense some. Don't think he can be below Suttles, at least as good of a hitter, and a much more valuable fielder even if you believe the worst about his defense (and I rate him as about 1/2 3B, 1/2 1B).

7. Dobie Moore (8) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

I'm finally going with my gut here. He did not have a super-long career, but he had a monster peak, and his career was all prime (well, we don't know about the Army years, which he just gets some vague credit for, but you get the picture).

8. Willie Wells (9) - This feels low, but I don't think he was better than Moore, so this is as high as I can go. Certainly a much longer career than Moore, but his peak isn't close. Moore seems to have been one of the NL's truly great hitters when he was in his prime; Wells of course was no slouch there either, but I don't see him in Moore's class. And Wells' defensive decriptions raise warning bells to me. Moore feels A to me, Wells feels more B.

With that said, I have considered moving both of them up as high as 2-3; but everyone else ahead of them I would put in the HOM without blinking as well. I hope they all get in eventually so I don't have to worry about it.

9. Red Ruffing (10) - I love these hitting pitchers if you can't tell. Just not enough peak to rank higher than this. I had him above Moore/Wells earlier, but I can't justify that at all now that I'm actually posting. Still, a good strong Lyons-style candidate in value terms.

10. Earl Averill (11) - Moving on up; peak, prime, career. Fielding is in question, but I use WARP which thinks much less of his fielding than Win Shares, so I'm not too worried about overranking him. This gives him one year of minor league credit. Very good player.

11. Bucky Walters (new) - Impressive peak and prime. Ruffing's career advantage trumps Walters' peak advantage in this case, because of war factors, which add slightly to Ruffing and subtract slightly more from Walters.

12. Dizzy Dean (12) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

13. Joe Sewell (13) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit. His offense isn't quite good enough to justify higher, but it was good enough to demand a ballot spot.

14. Clark Griffith (14) - Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone. He also pitched in a tougher league than those who immediately preceeded and followed him.

15. Bob Johnson (15) - Little bit like Averill, though no minor league credit for Bob. He could hit, field (though in a corner). No peak like Averill, but career is all prime, with the possibly exception of 1945 if you slice up his stats (I think 1944 was so good that even with a steep discount, that's a strong year).

-------------------------

16. Mule Suttles (16) - Think he's a pretty clear 2nd in the Negro League glut atop our backlog. It's not that I don't like him, more than I think he should wait a while. I'd also much rather have had Dobie Moore.

17. Dick Redding (17) - Of similar value to Bill Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. Just not quite the peak, and for all the talk about a long career I don't see that either. Still, very good pitcher on the second tier, right in the mix for those last 50 HOM slots.

18-20: Sisler, Browning, Mackey
21-25: Medwick, Hack, Shocker, Dunlap, Monroe
26-30: Buffinton, Lundy, Williamson, Bartell, F. Jones
31-35: Waddell, Scales, Taylor, H. Smith, Passeau
36-40: Veach, Bond, Klein, Uhle, Poles
41-45: Byrd, Van Haltren, Harder, Warneke, Berger
46-50: Bell, Schalk, Clift, Mays, Childs

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Suttles - See above: #16.

Hack - Defense was below average, kept him from having a great peak. I do like him, #22, just not quite ballot worthy. Some discounting of his 44-45, too.

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?
   49. dan b Posted: June 26, 2005 at 12:45 AM (#1431059)
1.Vaughan Using WS to rank the best players in Pirate history, I come up with the top 5 at Wagner, Vaughan, P. Waner, Clemente and Stargell. The Pirates have retired the numbers of 6 players and 2 managers, and erected statues at PNC Park of 3.1 of them. Vaughan and Waner are not so honored, but last week a local writer put out the call to retire Waner’s number. Arky deserves the same.
2.Suttles Bill James likes him more than we do.
3.Wells Not as much career value as Bell, but more peak.
4.Medwick Looks like Ducky will be the first player with a 3-year peak better than Jennings not elected on the first ballot.
5.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
6.Hack Looks to be a fuzz better than Beckwith or Leach.
7.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
8.Mackey the only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
9.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
10.Leach PHoM 1926.
11.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
12.Averill More WS over 10 consecutive years than any other ML player on the ballot.
13.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy. Only appeared on 47% of the ballots last year.
14.Ruffing Or should Rixey be just ahead of Ruffing?
15.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
16.Herman Looks like a HoMer.
17.Cravath Now that we have some mle’s, Gavy jumps on to my ballot and could move higher. Would be in my PHoM had that information been available back in the early 30’s.
18.Ferrell
19.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
20.W. Cooper Of pitchers whose career began after 1910 and are now eligible for our consideration, Cooper has more WS over 10 consecutive seasons than any pitcher except Alexander, Grove and Hubbell. It looks like I am the only friend he has left. PHoM 1942.

I wish I could find room for Bucky Walters – My Dad’s old glove, a Bucky Walters model, is prominently displayed in my game room.
   50. Brent Posted: June 26, 2005 at 01:16 AM (#1431093)
dan b wrote:

4.Medwick Looks like Ducky will be the first player with a 3-year peak better than Jennings not elected on the first ballot.

What metric shows Medwick with a better 3-year peak than Jennings? Win shares (adjusted to 154-game seasons) show Jennings slightly ahead, 110 WS to 109. Warp1 and Warp3 show Jennings far ahead of Medwick.
   51. dan b Posted: June 26, 2005 at 03:07 AM (#1431159)
Brent – I use WS, but don’t directly prorate short seasons to 154 games. I have Medwick 108 (from the Digital Update), Jennings 107.
   52. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 26, 2005 at 07:49 PM (#1432076)
Happy 2nd annual 39th birthday to John Murphy.

(grumble)

Seriously :-), thanks Chris. Other than the graying hair, I don't feel any different than I did when I was in my twenties. That number does carry enough weight mentally, though. :-(
   53. karlmagnus Posted: June 26, 2005 at 08:42 PM (#1432225)
Since I've got my 17th 39th birthday coming up, I've no sympathy :-((
   54. Mike Webber Posted: June 26, 2005 at 09:09 PM (#1432301)
I’m behind on the discussion this week after a family vacation, so my consensus score will probably go up J Looks like next year’s class is weak, so I can fix my mistakes then.

1)ARKY VAUGHAN – Inner Circle? I’d think so.
2)WILLIE WELLS – Two shortstop class in 1954
3)STAN HACK – The best 3b between Baker and Mathews. Some give credit for being the best at a position for a time period, and if so Hack should get their attention.
4)EDD ROUSH –
5)JOE MEDWICK – Roush and Medwick are close, I’m slotting the centerfielder ahead of the leftfielder. Hopefully Medwick didn’t get 100 win shares during the war, like I wrote, I’m behind this week.
6)MULE SUTTLES – Thumping 1b, doesn’t seem to get the full support from the Negro League experts in our group that I would have guessed.
7)BILLY HERMAN – His weaker peak leaves him behind Hack and Roush.
8)COOL PAPA BELL – I can’t shake his reputation, despite what his MLEs have shown.
9)TOMMY LEACH – Long career and solid peak.
10)EARL AVERILL -
11)WALLY BERGER – If we can build consensus on the order the Cfers should be ranked, one of these guys will get in (Roush, Bell, Averill or Berger or Van Haltren or Ryan).
12)ROGER BRESNAHAN –Best catcher between Ewing and Hartnett.
13)CARL MAYS –The best combination of peak and career length among the available pitchers.
14)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list.
15)HUGHIE JENNINGS - His peak probably puts your team over the hump for the flag, trumps the problems of short career

16-30 Schang, Dean, Traynor, Warneke, Ruffing, Lazzeri, H. Wilson, Waddell, Redding, Duffy, Doyle, W. Cooper, Mendez, Moore, Lombardi

Disclosures – Beckwith, #32. Rixey - #42. The difference between 48 and 15 is small.

New Comers – Bucky Walters – 40th on the list, between 10 and 15 among pitchers.
   55. Patrick W Posted: June 26, 2005 at 09:52 PM (#1432388)
Fairly substantial shakeup on the ballot this year. Mostly down-ballot maneuverings that won’t affect the results, but I did see fit to give Wells the bonus points this year over Suttles.

1. Arky Vaughan (n/a), Pitt. (N), SS (’32-’47) (1954) – Top 25 to date in Career + Peak.
2. Willie Wells (4), St.L – Nwk. (--), SS (’26-’45) (1954) – I’ve given him a little more defensive credit for playing SS and that allows him to get the bump on Suttles.
3. Mule Suttles (3), St.L - Nwk. (--), 1B / LF (‘23-‘42) (1946) – Estimated 0.306 EQA in 9300 Trans. AB’s.
4. Red Ruffing (6), N.Y. (A) SP (’25-’47) – Too much career value to be as low as he was last year. Looks as good as Ted Lyons did.
5. John Beckwith (5), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Estimated 0.330 EQA in 6600 Trans. AB’s.
--. Martin Dihigo, Cuba (--), RF / P (’24-’45) –
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) –
6. Billy Herman (14), Chic. – Bkn. (N), 2B (’32-’46) – Heavily underrated by me last year. Hard to separate from Dick Lundy, though Billy gets more points on prime rate.
7. Bucky Walters (n/a), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) – I show quite a bit of distance between Ruffing and Walters even though they appear this close on the ballot. The one big year doesn’t make up for Red’s 9 more productive years (w/ war credit).
8. Biz Mackey (7), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – He’ll make it in on my ballot someday, but the NeL competition has gotten very tough, as seen above.
9. Joe Sewell (9), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – The great defense of Sewell trumps the modest offense advantage of Hack.
10. Bob Johnson (11), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume. Could move up
11. Stan Hack (--), Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) – Totally deserving of appearing on my ballot if Groh still theoretically appears on it.
12. Jake Beckley (--), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Jake can thank Ducky Wucky for my reanalysis of all the MLB IF’s and OF’s for this ballot.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
13. Joe Medwick (n/a), St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) – More productive hitter than VH, but in a shorter career. Result is close to a tie in my scorebook. Better peak for Ducky gets the tiebreak.
14. George Van Haltren (12), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Curious how far he’ll drop off the ballot before he begins to rise. Bring on the elect 3 years!
15. Wes Ferrell (--), Clev. (A), SP (’29-’38) – Undeniably great when he was in there, it would be a lot easier to vote for him if there were even 500 more IP on the resume. I do show him preventing more runs above avg. in his career than Rixey, so Eppa drops off-ballot.

Eppa Rixey (10) – Doesn’t appear to be a whole lot different than a dozen other pitchers who have been summarily reject by the voters (Harder, Passeau, Shocker, Warneke, Grimes, …).
Jimmy Ryan (13) (1926) – I can’t support my methods of fighting against the timeline penalties anymore. He’s PHOM material; that’ll have to be enough.
Cool Papa Bell (8) – My estimate of him says he has less peak than Beckley. Doesn’t make sense to have him on and Jake off.
Earl Averill – I can’t see crediting him with as much minor league credit as he needs to crack the ballot in these years. Might hit a 14-15 spot in the backlog years, coming up (hopefully) a decade or so from now.

Rixey & Averill were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   56. DavidFoss Posted: June 26, 2005 at 11:11 PM (#1432458)
Well, the Yankees became the first team to five-peat and the 1954 team looks to win more than the previous five...

1954 Ballot

1. Arky Vaughn (ne) -- That's a lot of value he snuck in between 1932-1940. Being peak-friendly, the 356/119.5 is more impressive in that his career really was not that long.
2. John Beckwith (2) -- The more SS-3B types who become eligible without Beckwith's hitting numbers, the more impressed I am.
3. Willie Wells (3) -- Decent hitter, long career, solid glove. Looks like a cross between Cronin & Frisch.
4. Hughie Jennings (5) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago.
5. Clark Griffith (6) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
6. Larry Doyle (8) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning, but still has a core group of followers. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
7. Cupid Childs (9) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
8. Billy "Don't Call Me Babe" Herman (7) -- Dropped him below Doyle/Childs this week to be cautious. Impressive Win Shares numbers look a lot like Doyle/Childs'. A 'B+' defender as the position is getting tougher. Eligible before Gordon/Doerr.
9. Mule Suttles (10) -- His bat does not have the value at OF/1B that other bats have provided. He certainly did have the 'big year', though.
10. Dick Redding (11) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
11. Wes Ferrell (12) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
12. Biz Mackey (13) -- Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-30s or so.
13. Stan Hack (14) -- Fine OBP man for pennant-winning Cubs teams. 3B is underrepresented and Hack would still has 300 WS after applying a wartime discount (with 3 30+ WS seasons).
14. John McGraw (15) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
15. Red Ruffing (15) -- Sneaks onto the ballot. Sure, the Yankees scored a ton for him, but he had five 130 ERA+ seasons while chewing up a lot of innings. World Series: 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 85.7 IP.

Omissions:

Rixey -- Was barely on my ballot as a newbie (over Faber), but dropping down slightly every year or two due to strong incoming classes.

Averill -- just fell off the ballot a year or two ago. I'm harsh on OF-1B types because there are so many good ones.
   57. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: June 26, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1432516)
Vaughan & Hank Greenberg make my PHOM this year.

1954 ballot:

1. Willie Wells (PHOM 1953)
2. Arky Vaughan (PHOM 1954)
Close call. Vaughan has more retro-all-star selections 9-8, Wells more Win Shares 398-356. Wells’s 2.5 (Holway) MVPs give him the edge.

3. Red Ruffing: I’m more career than peak, so I see him as the best pitching candidate, but the peak and prime aren’t bad at all. However, he’s probably doomed, between the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams.
Career stats obviously aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. Other current candidates:
Rixey 315, 98.8
Ferrell 233, 88.1
Griffith 273, 83.4
Welch 354, 57.6
Waddell 240, 68.8
Grimes 286, 92.0
Walters 251, 88.8
Being an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners is a positive in my book.

4. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. Even if the 400-odd win shares get reduced to 350, he’s well ahead of any “glut”.

5. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

6. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia.

7. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

8. Billy Herman: Starts a mini-parade of infielders. Slight edge over Sewell.

9. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

10. Dick Lundy: Looks roughly comparable to Sewell, longer career, a little more pop, a little less average, great defense. The numbers on his thread could be devastating to his candidacy. They certainly don’t square with expert opinions. #3 on Riley’s list behind Mackey & Pete Hill.

11. Stan Hack: The HOM’s a little short on thirdbasemen. Stan’s an excellent candidate, 316 WS, 4 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons, good defense, OB-heavy OPS+ of 119.

12. Mule Suttles
13. John Beckwith
I’m not completely sold on them. Their hitting puts them on, their defense keeps them low.

14. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

15. Joe Medwick: He, Averill & Indian Bob are very close. In fact, there’s a bunch of people could go here.

Required explanations (only one for once):
Averill: Hit the lower part of my ballot three years ago. Topnotch outfielder for most of his relatively short career.
   58. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 27, 2005 at 12:42 AM (#1432634)
Since I've got my 17th 39th birthday coming up, I've no sympathy :-((

:-)
   59. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 27, 2005 at 02:47 AM (#1433246)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Arky Vaughan-SS/3B (n/e): The second-greatest hitting shortstop, plus he could field. Best NL shortstop for 1932, 1941 and 1943. Best major league shortstop for 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1938, 1939 and 1940.

2) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (2): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. Probably would have been the best major league third baseman for 1923 and 1929, as well as the best major league shortstop for 1925, if he had been allowed to play.

3) Willie Wells-SS (4): I'm not as gung ho over him as I was a week ago, but he's certifiably great, IMO. Possibly could have been the best major league shortstop for 1927, 1928 and 1929.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (5): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Stan Hack-3B (6): Amazingly, Stan wasn't a hacker! :-)Best major league third baseman for 1935, 1937, 1941, 1942, 1945 and 1946. Best NL third baseman for 1936.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (7): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Billy Herman-2B (8): Probably better than Childs, but I'll leave him here for now. Best NL second baseman for 1932, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1938 and 1943.

8) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (9): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

9) George Van Haltren-CF/P (10): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

10) Tommy Bridges-P (11): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

11) Jake Beckley-1B (12): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

12) Wally Schang-C (13): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (14): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Mickey Welch-P (15): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (n/e): I like him better than Suttles, FWIW. I'm comfortable enough with his MLEs to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league right fielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

Suttles, Ruffing, Averill, and Rixey all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   60. Jeff M Posted: June 27, 2005 at 12:02 PM (#1433867)
1954 Ballot

1. Vaughan, Arky – Not a tough call to put him in the HoM. The difficulty was evaluating him against Wells. As always, I give the nod to “real” numbers, as opposed to the ones we derive. However, I would have Vaughan here anyway. I believe Wells was the better defensive player, but I do not believe there is a big enough defensive difference to make up for what I perceive as Vaughan’s distinct advantage in getting on base.

2. Wells, Willie – My personal MLE’s are similar to those posted, except I have him with a lower OBP. I gave him 5.45 per 1,000 estimated innings (somewhere between Appling and Vaughan). This all added up to a shortstop who hit about 25% better than the league and played above-average defense.

3. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher, but can’t put him ahead of Dickey.

4. Medwick, Joe – Could potentially have been higher, but Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is practically an MVP-average season! He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon.

5. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years of baseball, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

6. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

7. Suttles, Mule -- Originally I was afraid I had him too high based on long-ball feats, but on re-evaluation, I’ve had him about right. I rate him lower than an average defensive player. Riley basically says he caught everything he could reach, but implies strongly that he could not reach very much. In any event, he was probably a better hitter than Sisler, so I’ll put him a little ahead.

8. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

9. Herman, Billy – Nudges Beckwith by a few WS. Not as much SLG as Beckwith but more OBP. Also better than Beckwith defensively.

10. Mendez, Jose – Reexamined him in connection with Hilton Smith’s candidacy and he moves up onto my ballot.

11. Beckwith, John –I’ve got him at roughly 300 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is still a good number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

12. Waddell, Rube – Waddell still lives here. RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be. I have significant reservations about slotting him behind Mendez.

13. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but a solid outfielder and contributed a LOT more at the plate, and that’s a much bigger factor for an outfielder than defense.

14. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety.

15. McGraw, John – Amazing OBP.


Required Disclosures:

Ruffing, Red – He’s #81 in my system, tied with Mike Tiernan and Wilbur Cooper. Finished #7 in the voting, but less than 40% of voters have him in the top 10. Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Hack, Stan -- – He’s #27 in my system, behind Eppa Rixey (but really behind Goose Goslin) and ahead of Larry Doyle, Tommy Leach and Joe Sewell. Played for 16 seasons, but because he really only had about 9 full-time seasons, he does not quite make the ballot. I wish he was higher, but I don’t know why.

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #26 in my system, behind Bobby Veach (but really behind Max Carey) and ahead of Stan Hack (but really just ahead of Goose Goslin). I need more brilliance for election.

Averill, Earl – Another player whose numbers are inflated by the high run environment in which he played, and when corrected, looks just very good. He’s #47 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan and ahead of Kiki Cuyler.
   61. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 27, 2005 at 02:17 PM (#1434021)
I have tallied 37 ballots up to this point. Still missing ballots from: PhillyBooster, jwinfrey, Eric Enders, Chris Cobb, Brad G., favre, the Commish, Devin McCullen, Ken Fischer, Thane of Bagarath, Buddha, Andrew M, jimd, Max Parkinson, Ardo, David C. Jones, Chris J and Carl Goetz.
   62. Brad G Posted: June 27, 2005 at 04:15 PM (#1434252)
Sorry for the delay... rough week.

1954 Ballot:

1.Arky Vaughan- Win Shares, WARP. Career, Peak, Prime, you name it… Arky’s got the goods.

2.Mule Suttles- Superb power hitter ... Win Share MLEs are particularly impressive. Other Negro Leaguers show stronger careers, but Suttles has the peak/prime to match. Probably the all-time RBI leader in the Negro Leagues. Too much James influence here? Maybe.

3.Joe Medwick- Excellent peak: WS3 = 109, WS5 = 157, Career Runs Created = 1400, Black Ink = 41, Gray Ink = 226.

4.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941.

5.Willie Wells- Another benefactor of strong MLEs. And being a shortstop certainly helps.

6.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

7.Billy Herman- Career WARP1 = 116.6, WARP3 = 99. Ranked more accurately than last year.

8.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Went into my HoM in 1938.

9.Chuck Klein- Career Runs Created = 1364, OPS+ = 137, and more Black Ink (60) than any other eligible player.

10.Stan Hack- Awesome peak; Career WARP3 = 89.5.

11.Bucky Walters- WS3 = 102, Black Ink = 48, Gray Ink = 152.

12.Earl Averil- Consistent if not exactly mind-blowing career. Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

13.Wes Ferrell- Over 30 Win Shares/season.

14.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Win Shares A- Defender.

15.Burleigh Grimes- Some of the best Ink scores among the current crop of pitchers.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

16.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286. Slipping?

17. Dizzy Dean

18.Cool Papa Bell- The subjective accounts favor Cool Papa. Only wish I could justify ranking him higher. Probably one of the fastest players ever.

19.Rube Waddell- Super peak; just won’t go away.

20.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.

John Beckwith currently ranks # 25 on my list.

Thanks!
Brad G
   63. Andrew M Posted: June 27, 2005 at 05:19 PM (#1434379)
1954 Ballot

1. Arky Vaughan. Among ML shortstops, only Wagner was inarguably better.

2. (3) Willie Wells. Gets the nod over Beckwith because he played longer and was, I think, the better defensive player.

3. (4) John Beckwith. A great hitter who could also could play some SS and 3B. Shorter career than Suttles or Wells, but at his peak he seems to have been a better hitter than both.

4. (new) Joe Medwick. I like him better than I expected to. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937 and has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that. Interestingly, Win Shares shows him as being the 4th best OF in the NL in 1941, but only the 3rd best OF on his team.

5. (9) Earl Averill. Averill has a 10 year stretch when he was one of the 3 best AL OFs—probably the best from 1934-36—plus A+ quality CF defense (maybe—BPro suggests otherwise) and a good argument for receiving 1 and maybe 2 years of PCL credit if one is so inclined. Though he lacks anything like Medwick’s 1936-37 peak, his value over a 7-10 year period looks comparable to that of Ducky or Goose.

6. (5) Mule Suttles. His MLE projections (.301/.364/.537, 137 OPS+) wouldn’t seem to put him in the elite hitter category of first basemen, but he played forever and was a formidable slugger.

7. (6) Eppa Rixey. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks ballot-worthy to me.

8. (7) Geo. Van Haltren. Nothing new to add. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak, career numbers. Even pitched decently.

9. (10) Clark Griffith. I accept the argument that the totality of the available evidence presents a compelling case in his favor. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His peak level of performance between 1895-1901 was significant. Could also hit.

10. (11) Billy Herman. Occupies the very narrow ground between Cronin and Sewell among middle infielders. Had a nice run between 1935 and 1943 in which he averaged 9.7 WARP per year.

11. (12) Larry Doyle. Higher career OPS+ (126 to 112) than Herman--but shorter career and almost certainly not as good a fielder. (The same could also be said for Lazzeri and Childs.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which would not make him the worst defensive 2B elected into the HoM.

12. (13) Dobie Moore. Comparable peak at SS to Jennings, but a longer career. At his best, I think Moore may have been better than Beckwith or Suttles or Wells—but his career just doesn’t seem long enough to move him up next to them on my ballot.

13. (14) Hugh Duffy. Excellent peak/prime, which along with his excellent OF play and good black and gray ink, makes him look like a viable HoM candidate to me.

14. (15) Rube Waddell. Still hanging on the ballot. Downgraded somewhat for unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

15. (16) Cool Papa Bell. Long, legendary career with some question marks. Outstanding fielder and base runner. Could also hit some, of course.

Next 15, more or less:
16. Stan Hack
17. Biz Mackey
18. Wes Ferrell
19. George J. Burns
20. Edd Roush
21. Red Ruffing
22. Cupid Childs
23. George Sisler
24. Indian Bob Johnson
25. Pete Browning
26. Hughie Jennings or Dizzy Dean
27. Joe Sewell
28. Tommie Leach
29. Wally Schang or Roger Bresnahan
30. Jake Beckley

Required disclosures:
Red Ruffing. I had him on the ballot last week because I couldn’t see much difference between him and Rixey. Having looked at both more closely this week, I am comfortable placing Rixey higher.

Stan Hack. Just off the ballot. I like him, but position scarcity only goes so far on a crowded ballot.
   64. Carl G Posted: June 27, 2005 at 05:26 PM (#1434390)
1-Arky Vaughn-No brainer.
2-Billy Herman-Fantastic from 32-40. Good during the war, but I took a little credit away for 43-45.
3-John Beckwith-Suttles was a better hitter, but I think Beckwith had more value.
4-Mule Suttles-See Beckwith. Best NegL power hitter not named Gibson
5-Red Ruffing-Nice long(but not spectacularily high) peak with the Yanks, plus 1 strong year with the Sox. More Career value than Rixey, even giving Rixey wartime credit. I'm willing to say he's the best pitcher on the ballot right now.
6-Earl Averill-With PCL credit, you can add career value to an already nice peak.
7-Eppa Rixey-Great Long Career; long enough that his near total lack of peak doesn't kill him.
8-Jake Beckley-I've upped in in my re-analysis this week. He's not inner-circle, but definitely 'in' when the back-log-clearing years come around.
9-Dick Redding-One of the great Negro League pitchers
10-Willie Wells-I've got him better than Jennings on top of my currently eligible SS list. I think Cronin and Vaughn were better and were basically his contemporaries. He is HoM-worthy.
11-Stan Hack-Pretty slick fielder and a good hitter. I took a little away for his 43-45 numbers or he would be higher.
12-Gavvy Cravath-Giving him credit back to '07 gives him pretty solid career numbers to go with the peak.
13-Hughie Jennings-5 phenomenal years. Its enough, I think, but he'll need to wait.
14-Clark Griffith-Long career, solid peak.
15-George Sisler-The peak is hard to ignore.


16-Wes Ferrell-He's not Grove, Hubbell, Ruffing, or Lyons, but he's 5th this period. I upped him in 29-31 for pitching against much tougher offenses than Grove did.
   65. jimd Posted: June 27, 2005 at 08:22 PM (#1434817)
(Cast)

Ballot for 1954

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my syste (yet again). Maybe next election.

I'm dropping my official support for some candidates as lost causes. When I am the only supporter two years in a row, that's it, until someone else brings them back. They will remain on my ballot, but deprecated as a "lost cause" (see Fred Dunlap).

1) A. VAUGHAN -- Largest dissonance between stats and reputation that I know of.

2) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

3) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

4) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

5) W. WELLS -- He and Appling are long career, low peak players like Maranville; more bat, less glove, similar value.

6) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

[lc) F. Dunlap -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Lost cause.]

[lc) B. Veach -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Lost cause.]

7) J. BECKWITH -- Belongs.

8) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

9) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

10) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

11) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

12) M. SUTTLES -- Not Turkey Stearnes but not chopped liver neither.

[lc) R. Maranville -- Very long career playing great defense; needs a little more bat. Lost cause.]

13) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus gets him on ballot.

14) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

15) B. HERMAN -- Moving on for now.

Just missing the cut are:
19-22) Hugh Duffy, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan, Dick Redding,
23-26) Eppa Rixey, Gavy Cravath, Ned Williamson, Ray Schalk,
27-30) Herman Long, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick, Wally Schang,
31-34) Edd Roush, Jose Mendez, Earl Averill, Roger Bresnahan,
35-37) Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley
   66. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 27, 2005 at 08:40 PM (#1434879)
Can someone pass along the URL for the wikipedia entries for baseball primer and the HOM? It was posted a few weeks ago, but I can't figure out where, and I forgot to bookmark it at that point. Thanks!
   67. PhillyBooster Posted: June 27, 2005 at 09:36 PM (#1435012)
It is here, and you can find it listed on the right column, under "Special Topics" on the Baseball Primer weblog page.

Ballot forthcoming . . .
   68. Chris Cobb Posted: June 27, 2005 at 09:41 PM (#1435030)
1954 Ballot

Later than usual, most comments recycled, but submitted.

1. Arky Vaughan (n/e). Tremendous peak, and enough career to place ahead of Wells, even though I had Wells #1 last year.
2. Willie Wells (1). Great all-around player: hit for average, hit for some power, good defense, great baserunning, leadership. The MLEs suggest that he was very similar to Luke Appling, with steadier playing time and without the great fluke season.
3. John Beckwith (4). Not quite enough career to reach an elect-me spot this year.
4. Clark Griffith (5). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length. Also the best pitching post-1893 candidate according to Pennants Added. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
5. Hughie Jennings (6). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well. jimd’s recent comments on Jennings’ fielding value seem right to me.
6. Eppa Rixey (7). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the late 1950s, though if he turns out to be better than Ruffing, election could come sooner than that.
7. Mule Suttles (8). Still needs revised win shares, but further examination of MLEs moves him past Ferrell in my rankings.
8. Wes Ferrell (9). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM.
9. George Van Haltren (10). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet. Van Haltren was in an “elect-me” spot on my 1931 and 1932 ballots. I’ve lowered my view of outfielders in general since then, which caused Jennings to pass him, but everyone from Van Haltren up clearly merits eventual enshrinement, in my view.
10. Edd Roush (11). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
11. Tommy Leach (12) Slipping out of view again; as the ballot thins, his accomplishments will again become hard to ignore.
12.Billy Herman (13). A player about whom I knew nothing when this project began, but he was a very fine player. A lot like Willie Wells, actually, as he combined good offense and good defense in a long career, but he was a bit behind Wells in both peak and length.
13. Stan Hack. (14) The best major-league third baseman between Heinie Groh and Eddie Mathews. Great plate discipline, acceptable defense.
14. Red Ruffing. (15) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. That’s just enough to get him on this years’s ballot. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
15. Biz Mackey (16). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer, but not good enough to leap ahead of the backlog. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot: a larger number than usual this year because 6(!) new candidates have reached the ballot.

Earl Averill. See #19 below
Cool Papa Bell. See #25 below.
   69. Chris Cobb Posted: June 27, 2005 at 09:43 PM (#1435035)
Off-Ballot

16. George Sisler (17). Nice peak.
17. Larry Doyle (18). Best of an over-looked teens group of middle-tier stars.
18. Burleigh Grimes (19). Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 12 ballot spots.
19. Earl Averill (20). Has touched bottom and is now rising again, like those around him.
20. Jose Mendez. (21) The player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention.
21. Dick Redding . (22) Still paired with Mendez.
22. Buzz Arlett. (23) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
23. Bill Byrd (24). Stongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe, better than Mays but not quite as good as Grimes, although his peak was better. I’ve placed him halfway between the two. Like Grimes and Mays, Byrd was a good hitter and often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher. He enters the ballot with contemporary Mel Harder, whom he betters, in my view, by a small amount, mostly on peak. More study of the NeL pitchers is needed, though without team and league data our estimates for these players must remain much more speculative than I would like.
24. Gavvy Cravath. (25) Revised minor league MLEs move him from out of the running to in the running, though still off ballot. My 15-25 range is now full of 1910s stars who are just a little bit short by current standards, but who may go in later.
25. Cool Papa Bell (26). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville.
26. Rabbit Maranville. (27) His defensive value and his career length deserve more respect. Wish I could get him onto my ballot.
27. Mel Harder. (28). The historic link between Wes Ferrrell and Bob Feller. Harder was better than I thought. He has decent career length (over 3400 innings) and a very nice peak in the mid-1930s. Very similar to Carl Mays, but slightly better, although not nearly so well-rounded a player.
28. Spotswood Poles . (29) Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
29. Joe Medwick. (n/e). Hard to know what to do with him. There a good reasons to rank him below Cravath, though. Strong peak, but it was short and the rest of his career was not all that distinguished.
30. Carl Mays . (30) Wes Ferrell lite.
31. Urban Shocker. (31) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
32. Mickey Welch. (32) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again. This ballot is unbelievably deep.
33. Hugh Duffy. (33) Another guy who I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now below 30. Youch!
34. Rube Waddell
35. Jimmy Ryan
36. Roger Bresnahan
37. Wally Schang
38. Cupid Childs
39. Bucky Walters (n/e). A strong peak, but not a whole lot of value outside of it. Benefited greatly, as my analysis sees it, from the great fielding support that the Reds provided. I might be underrating him and I look forward to more discussion, but this is where he lands for now.
40. George Scales
41. Dobie Moore
42. Ben Taylor
43. Jake Beckley
44. Joe Sewell
45. Dick Lundy
46. Waite Hoyt
47. Herman Long
48. Wilbur Cooper
49. Lave Cross
50. Kiki Cuyler
51. Harry Hooper
52. Bobby Veach
53. Fielder Jones
54. Dolf Luque
55. John McGraw
56. Tommy Bond
57. Bob Johnson
58. George J. Burns
59. Charley Jones
60. Bruce Petway
61. Bill Monroe
62. Dizzy Dean
63. Babe Adams
64. Mike Tiernan
65. Sam Rice
66. Dave Bancroft
67. Frank Chance
68. Tony Mullane
69. Ed Konetchy
70. Addie Joss
71. Wally Berger

Hilton Smith seems not as good as Dean or Joss, so he does not break onto the top 70 candidates list. He seems more Lefty Gomez than Wes Ferrell. He’s near Sam Leever in the non-competition-adjusted all-time rankings.
   70. PhillyBooster Posted: June 27, 2005 at 09:54 PM (#1435060)
1. Arky Vaughan (n/e) -- Because I'm voting alphabetically by first name.

2. Mule Suttles (3) -- The end of my "inner circle" grouping.

3. Eppa Rixey (4) -- Lots of way above average innings. Lots of solid seasons. War credit. Just because I argued for Lyons being better doesn't mean I now can't use him as a reason to vote for Rixey!

4. Jake Beckley (5) -- I consider myself equal parts "peak" and "career", but I think this peak-minded electorate is leaving me with lots of the older career guys on top.

5. Gavy Cravath (6) – No reason really. Just picked his name out of hat.

6. Jose Mendez (7) -- Will Martin Dihigo become the only Cuban pitcher in the Hall of Merit? No way, Jose.

7. Mickey Welch (9) -- Will the 1880s soon appear underrepresented? The is the end of my "second tier HoMer" group.

8. Stan Hack (off) -- the Ed Williamson of the 20th century? I missed the boat on him last week, and it was in the process of describing why he was off that I realized he shouldn't by. This was actually Ernie Lombardi's spot, who could have otherwise dropped off without comment, but I was convinced by the arguments in the Lombardi thread -- especially those focussing on his GIDP numbers -- that he belonged along with Schang in the mid-to-low 20s.

9. Dolf Luque (8) -- See Mendez. Great league with great pitchers. Relatively small league depresses stats (all teams are "All-Star" teams.) Where's the love?

10. Roger Bresnahan (11) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

11. John Beckwith (12) -- I am satisfied that he was sufficiently better than Sewell to warrant a ballot spot.

12. Cupid Childs (13) -- More love for the 1890s.

13. Clark Griffith (14) -- Never the best pitcher, but always near the top.

14. Cannonball Dick Redding (15) -- Because that's just how I'm feeling today, again.

15. Billy Herman (off) -- because he was 16th last week, and I got another spot to fill. It's funny how sometimes those just-off-ballot-guys sometime get on ballot.

Averill in #17, because his career was short and the PCL doesn't make up for it. Wells in #18 because he can be scientifically proven to be 1/100,000th worse than Averill in every single measurable category. Duffy and Jennings are their off-ballot bookends at #16 and #19, and Red Ruffing rounds in out at #20.

I think Ruffing is somewhat similar to Coveleski, with some Boston filler, but I'm being consistent because this is where Coveleski ranks in my PHoM also.

This may be the first time that the consensus Top 10 is all in my Top 20 -- thanks to the timely drops of Ferrell, Sisler, and Sewell, all of whom I had much lower than most -- but I won't be surprised in my consensus score continues to drop due to unrequited Luque-love.

Medwick -- not convinced that he's any better than a half dozen similar guys that I'm also not voting for. If the electorate thinks he's worthy of a second look, I will certainly give him one next week.
   71. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 27, 2005 at 10:09 PM (#1435077)
Hmmm. I was tied for #3 on consensus score last year, #1 completely reworked his ballot, and I really didn't. I was going to try and type this up last night, but got sucked into the Mets-Yankees game (and that was a mistake). Not a lot of excitement this year – it’s an all SS PHoM, with Vaughan and Wells

1. Arky Vaughan (new) I don’t know about second-best all time, but he was clearly way underrated by the HoF voters. Very good hitter for any position, and no reason to think he was a slouch with the glove. PHoM this year.

2. Willie Wells (3) The MLEs are very good for a SS, but they weren’t screaming "Elect me now!" last election, and even now, it’s more of a “Excuse me sir, but if you look carefully, you’ll see that I’m the best choice.” PHoM this year.

3. Mule Suttles (4) HR's aren't the be-all and end-all, but they make him look like the 2nd best power hitter in Negro League history, which sounds like a HoMer to me. Even if the 1926 MLE is inaccurate, he's got a consistent career with some very good years. Made my PHoM in 1949.
(3A Ted Lyons)

4. Billy Herman (5) I guess he could be a bit high, but he definitely looks a step ahead of Childs here, both on career and peak.

5. Tommy Leach (6) If my consensus score is so good, why isn't he doing better? :) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Has more WS than Beckwith's translated estimates in a career of very similar length. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Made my PHoM in 1940.

6. John Beckwith (7) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around, not an extremely long career compared to the other Negro League candidates, but it does all add up to a player worthy of induction.

7. Red Ruffing (8) I think his career edge trumps Ferrell's peak edge, but I'm far from certain.

8. Bill Monroe (10) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Might be better than Herman, but there isn't enough evidence there for me now. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. Stan Hack (9) Very close to Leach for me, but falls just short. I lean more towards career, and with a cutback for wartime, Leach definitely has the advantage.

10. Wes Ferrell (11) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above.

11. Joe Medwick (new) I think he’s a shade ahead of Averill and Johnson, but all three of them look pretty similar. It may come down to whether you trust WS or WARP, and I try to look at both, so I wind up confused.

12. Dick Redding (12) At this stage of the Negro League pitcher analysis, nobody has moved ahead of Cannonball Dick to me. I'm not sure the teens need many more pitchers, but better him than Rixey.

13. Earl Averill (13) His record appears close to the CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead. The closer I look, the less certain I feel about this, though.

14. Joe Sewell (14) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.
(14A Bill Terry)

15. Cupid Childs (15) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Lazzeri, and is clearly behind Herman. Made my PHoM in 1932.

16. George Van Haltren (16) In 1932, he was fighting with Childs for a PHoM spot, now they're fighting for 15th place. Consistently good, but never great.
(16A Max Carey)
17. Cool Papa Bell (17) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and if so, that feels like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation.
18. Jose Mendez (18) I had been underrating him a bit, but he can't quite make this ballot.
19. Bob Johnson (19) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.
20. Biz Mackey (20) I am comfortable that he's ahead of Bresnahan, Schang and Lombardi, but those numbers still aren't that striking. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
21. Eppa Rixey (21) He did throw a ton of innings, but longevity by itself isn't enough. I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era.
22. Ben Taylor (22) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now, and I'd been overlooking the pitching. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
23. Jimmy Ryan (23) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.
(23A Sam Thompson, 23B Rube Foster)
24. Jake Beckley. (24) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. It does seem wrong to have him too far behind Cool Papa Bell, though.
25. Gavvy Cravath (25) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
26. George Sisler (26) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years. Still, for the moment his peak seems more impressive than Jennings'.
27. Tony Lazzeri (27) Looks pretty close to Childs to me. Didn't think he'd be this high.
28. Dick Lundy (28) I'm not really sure why he dropped so much last year - I just have a harder time seperating him from Jennings and Moore.
29. Bucky Walters (new) Actually the top pitcher in my raw ratings, but it’s close and doesn’t include wartime discounts, so he’s definitely a bit behind.
30. Rube Waddell (29) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
31. Spotswood Poles
32. Bill Byrd
33. Charley Jones
34. Hughie Jennings
35. Bobby Veach
36. Dobie Moore
37. Burleigh Grimes
38. Mike Griffin
39, Ernie Lombardi
40. Clark Griffith
   72. Thane of Bagarth Posted: June 27, 2005 at 10:15 PM (#1435085)
1954 Ballot:

1) Arky Vaughan
Clearly deserving of enshrinement. His 66.1 five year (nonconsecutive) peak in WARP3 is only behind Ruth and Hornsby among players that have been eligible so far. 169 five year (consecutive) WS peak is not as high, comparatively, but still very good.

2) Billy Herman
A player I was surprised by—I knew he was decent, but didn’t expect him to have a top 5 WARP3 of 49.1. He puts up some nice career numbers, too: 99 WARP3, 298 WS. Small bump for war credit lands him ahead of Wells.

3) Red Ruffing
He is well ahead of the closest eligible pitcher (Walters) and modest war credit would put him in my top 15 pitchers so far. His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (100.2 WARP3, 985 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

4) Devil Wells
Can’t argue with Bill James’ ranking of him as the #2 NeL SS. I have him ranked next to Cronin which may be underestimating him.

5) Bucky Walters
Even discounting his play during the war years, Bucky comes out better than Ferrell.

6) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. 3rd highest Career WARP3 (80.9) among eligible pitchers, 2nd highest 5-year PRAR (455).

7) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” I see Suttles & Taylor as tied for 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman.

8) Mule Suttles
Generally regarded as the 2nd best NeL 1st baseman. I think he gets somewhat overrated when compared to Taylor because their eras were different, and Mule hit those towering home runs.

9) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

10) Jose Mendez
I had never considered the gap between Mendez and Redding to be very large and, upon reconsideration; I decided Jose deserved a ballot spot.

11) John Beckwith
As a SS, he'd be the #3 among Negro Leaguers in my book.

12) Joe Medwick
Slides in ahead of fellow Gashouse Gang member Dean on my ballot.

13) Dizzy Dean
493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. HoM-worthy peak, if you ask me.

14) Eppa Rixey
Rixey & Ruffing Comparison
IP  ERA+  DERA    WARP1    PRAR FRAR BRAR  WS  WS/Season Top3 WS Top5 WS     
Rixey   4495  115   4.06     98.8    1035 48  
-158   315    26.49    76      118
Ruffing 4344  109   4.13    113.3    1092 09   26    322    25.53    76      116 

WARP1 favors Ruffing by 15% before it makes the timeline adjustment. Win Shares shows them as having almost identical career, rate and peak stats. I consider their war-time absences to be a wash. Incorporating any degree of timeline that deflates Rixey more than Ruffing and Red stands out as the better of the two by either uber-stat.

Now whether you think the career value of these guys is HoM-worthy or they lack peak/prime seasons is another question. I tend to think of myself as a peak voter, but I’ve toned it down a bit since my first several ballots. I’ve tried to add elements to my rankings that give a decent amount of value career as well as peak numbers…so there's room for both on my ballot.
15) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories say he was, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor earns him a ballot spot.

------------------------------------------
Next best 15
16) George Van Haltren
17) Stan Hack—I think I overrated him last week. Still could be HoMworthy.
18) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 43.9 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
19) Pete Browning
20) Earl Averill—Will get back on the ballot. Solid, consistent major league performer: averaged about 27 WS/year for his 10 full seasons in the majors, never below 22 or above 33 during that span.
21) Lon Warneke—Better rate stats and peak than Rixey, less career value.
22) Spot Poles—332 estimated WS. May deserve to be ahead of C.P. Bell
23) Dick Lundy
24) Rube Waddell
25) Jimmy Ryan
26) Tommy Bridges
27) Tommy Leach
28) Urban Shocker
29) Bob Johnson—Similar numbers to Averill, but at less valuable defensive position.
30) Mel Harder

Other Top 10 Not on My Ballot
32) Hughie Jennings—57.2 WARP3, 150 WS in top 5 years! (Too bad that makes up 82% and 70% of his career value, respectively.)

New Players in Top 100
81) Ted Strong—Impressive peak, but not a lot of bulk to his career. Thanks to Gadfly for the extra info.

84) Lonny Frey

90) Hilton Smith—I think this is a bit low right now, but I’m not convinced he was much better than Byrd, Brewer, and Winters.
   73. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 27, 2005 at 10:31 PM (#1435110)
If David C. Jones doesn't submit a ballot by 8 PM, I'll use his prelim instead.
   74. favre Posted: June 27, 2005 at 11:24 PM (#1435197)
1.Arky Vaughan
2.Mule Suttles

Suttles had a similar skill set to Willie Stargell, and Chris’ projected WS totals are comparable to Pops: 370 WS/21 years for Stargell, 353 WS/19 years for Suttles (Suttles WS are based on old MLE’s; the new MLE’s should give him even more WS). Probably had a better peak than Stargell, though perhaps not as good as a career. So call Suttles Willie-Stargell-lite, or Diet Pops.

3.Earl Averill
4.John Beckwith
5.Willie Wells

Averill had a very good ten-year prime from 1929-1938, and was a great player in the PCL for a couple of seasons before that. While there are some questions about Beckwith’s defense, baseball history is not exactly littered with guys who could play SS/3B and hit .330 with power. According to Chris’ projections, Wells had thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 100, and four more between 100-98. That’s pretty impressive for a shortstop. Fifth on the ballot feels low for Wells, but I can’t justify putting him ahead of Beckwith, who was a significantly better hitter.

6.Jake Beckley
7.Eppa Rixey

Beckley does not have much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

8.Wally Schang
9.Clark Griffith
10.Jose Mendez

I took a long, hard look at Biz Mackey, but ended up putting Schang on the ballot. Obviously Mackey has the defensive edge, and is projected for considerably more games at catcher. But Mackey is projected for three seasons with an OPS+of 121 or higher, while Schang had nine; the next highest OPS+ for both catchers was 111. Chris’ projections would have to be way off for Mackey to equal Schang as a hitter. And Mackey’s defense would not have been as valuable in the major leagues, because there was far less basestealing than the NeL. I’m forced to conclude that Schang was better, although not by a lot.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

11.Cool Papa Bell
12.Tommy Leach
13. Rube Waddell
14.Biz Mackey
15.Billy Herman

The long-career-and-great-defense-who-could-hit-some guys, with a short career fireballer thrown in for good measure. Well, Herman is more of a very-good defense guy, but he still racked up a lot of Win Shares. Bell’s career WS projects to nearly 400; Leach actually has more career WS than any major league position player on the ballot save Vaughan and Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Mackey, with position adjustments, fits very comfortably into this group.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

I’m a little surprised that Hack did not make my ballot, but WS is not crazy about his defense, and, like everyone, I had to adjust his WWII numbers downward. Given the choice, I’d rather have Ned Williamson.

16.Ned Williamson
17.Stan Hack
18.Hugh Jennings
19.Cupid Childs
20.Edd Roush
21.Larry Doyle
22.Dick Redding
23.George Sisler
24.Red Ruffing

I think Rixey is better than Ruffing, although they both have just great baseball names. Similar win-loss records, but Rixey pitched for more innings on worse teams with a better ERA+, and that does not take account the time he missed for the war. Was the jump in Ruffing’s effectiveness from Boston to New York due at least in part to a better defense?

25.Wes Ferrell

Last week I said that Joss was better than Ferrell, and that I would mount a defense of that assertion sometime this week. I have not had the time to research it closely, but the little I have done makes me think that I was a little too giddy over Joss.

26.Ernie Lombardi
27.George Van Haltren
28.Addie Joss
29.Gavvy Cravath
30.Buzz Arlett
   75. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 27, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1435201)
Just in the nick of time . . .

1. Arky Vaughn (n/e) - most underrated player in history?

2. Willie Wells (2) - Negro League version of Luke Appling deserves to rate very high..

3. Gavy Cravath (4) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

4. Billy Herman (5) - With war credit we're looking at a 2B with 2600 career hits. He also had a league average walk rate and an above average SLG. One helluva player, as his five top-10 MVP finishes would suggest. I see him as quite similar to Lou Whitaker actually, though Herman hit for a higher average and Whitaker walked more and had a little more pop.

5. Eppa Rixey (7) - If a few things out of his control were different (like the elimination of WWI), Rixey would likely have won 300 games. A Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Nierko HoMer.

6. Charley Jones (8) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL.

7. Clark Griffith (9) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity from Griffith?

8. Mule Suttles (10) - Nudged him up in 1949 some after re-reviewing Chris Cobb's MLEs.

9. Jake Beckley (11) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

10. Stan Hack (12) - I feel like he should be higher, but I can't put him ahead of any of these guys. I think this guy would have been my favorite player if I grew up in the 1930s. He was the Buddy Bell of the 30s/40s, but significantly better (though his career was shorter). I see him as the high end of what Kevin Youkilis could someday be, if everything breaks right for him. It's amazing how many great 3B didn't get their careers off the ground until they were 24-25 years old.

11. Tommy Leach (13) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

12. George Van Haltren (14) - I don't know what to do with this guy. You can make a solid argument that he could rank anywhere from 4 to 31.

13. Ernie Lombardi (6) - Looks an awful lot like Gabby Hartnett and Mickey Cochrane to me . . . I'm backing off a bit, as I was convinced that his OPS+ does overstate his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.

14. John Beckwith (15) - I'm trusting Chris's MLEs here - a little more than I had. I still think it's much more realistic to consider him a 3B that played some SS, than as a SS.

15. Bill Monroe (16) - I still really like this guy.

Close:

16. Joe Medwick (n/e) - Has to rank ahead of Averill and Roush, at least based on MLB (I'm thinking of Averill's PCL credit).

17. Biz Mackey (17) - After further review he does appear to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.

18. Cool Papa Bell (18) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?

19. Wally Schang (22) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.

20. Red Ruffing (off) - I severely underrated him last week. Still think we are overrating him as a group.

21. Wes Ferrell (19) - Great pitcher (for a few years) and good hitter (for a pitcher). I wish I could get him higher, but I can't say I'd want his career over any of those ranked ahead of him. I think his hitting trumps Harder's career value, but it's close and could go either way.

22. Earl Averill (20) - I still think I'm pegging him too low, but don't see why I should move him higher. How much PCL credit should I be giving him?

23. Edd Roush (31) - Should have had him about equal with Averill.

24. Mel Harder (21) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.

25. George Sisler (23) - in penalizing him for his 2nd act, I was underrating his first act, though I think it is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak wasn't that great. I realize that probably sounds confusing as hell.

26. Joe Sewell (24) - I'd been underrating him. Most of you were overrating him. We're getting closer to a consensus it appears. Very glad he wasn't rushed in. A little bump this week. The more I think about it, I think I'd take his career over Hughie's.

27. Hughie Jennings (25) - I'm feeling a little more career value oriented of late, Jennings obviously drops on those days. He's down a little more this week.

28. Mike Griffin (26) - a great defensive player. He could hit too. He's been forgotten here . . .

29. Jimmy Ryan (27) - very good player. I've been convinced he should be behind George Van Haltren.

30. Hugh Duffy (28) - not quite as good as the glut above him.

31. Ben Taylor (29) - had slipped off my radar. He's pretty close to Beckley, but this is a tight ballot. I ranking him above Roush as a compliment.

32. Dobie Moore (30) - Is this too low? Convince me I should have him higher.

33. Vic Willis (32) - I could easily see him much higher on the ballot. Notice the trend?

34. Dick Lundy (33) - Back on the radar. Not as good as Sewell.

35. George Scales (34) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?

36. Lefty Gomez (35) - Very nice career. Not as nice as Ferrell's. 177-114 RSI record, which is excellent. Too bad he didn't pitch longer.

off:

Bucky Walters (n/e) - Good career, some big years, but not nearly as good as I thought he was. The best pitcher in the NL from 1939-41.

Hilton Smith (n/e) - Like Walters a bit disappointed, I thought he'd be higher than this.
   76. EricC Posted: June 27, 2005 at 11:37 PM (#1435237)
If David C. Jones doesn't submit a ballot by 8 PM, I'll use his prelim instead.

Unless DCJ has specifically requested this, wouldn't this be against the rules?
   77. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 27, 2005 at 11:40 PM (#1435243)
Unless DCJ has specifically requested this, wouldn't this be against the rules?

Is it? I'm not sure.

I'll leave his ballot off just to be on the safe side.
   78. Max Parkinson Posted: June 27, 2005 at 11:43 PM (#1435250)
1952 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Vaughan and Goslin)

1. Arky Vaughan

2nd best SS thus far – yep, that’s a HoMer.

2. Hughie Jennings

Yeah, I still like him.

3. John Beckwith

I went with the assumption that Beckwith in the big leagues wouldn't have lasted long at 3rd base, and would've ended up at 1st or left field. Taking Chris Cobb's WS estimates, I compared him to his contemporaries at the bat-first positions of LF,RF and 1B. He falls behind the no-brainers, but was comparable to Sisler and Keeler (not a true contemporary). Assuming average defensive value at 1B or LF, which is no stretch at all, he falls just ahead of Ed and Terry.

I understand that this is a conservative estimate of Beckwith’s defensive capability, but I can point to a number of current big-leaguers who were shortstops at AA or AAA or even for a year or two in the majors who would never be considered ML SSs or even 3rd basemen – Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell, not to mention Delgado and Phelps (catchers, which is a similar proposition of good bat at key defensive positions who got shifted leftward on the spectrum).

4. Willie Wells

Another SS (joined my hall last year), but great players are great players.

5. Dick Redding
6. Red Ruffing

Earned a lot of value by being good for a long time – in Ruffing’s case, good for long enough to make up for how atrocious he was in Boston.

7. Wes Ferrell

The peak/prime voter in me. I don’t hold his (unsuccessful) comeback attempts against him at all.

8. Mule Suttles

I’m a little concerned about how great he really was (I’m starting to question how often he would have been a first team all-star, what with Gehrig and Foxx, with sometimes Terry and Greenberg playing at the same time...), but here seems good enough for now.

9. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up to be the best available LF. Fairly large jump for me.

10. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

11. Rube Waddell

A beneficiary of my correction for previously overpenalising poor-hitting and poor-fielding pitchers. He was certainly both. But those K’s…

12. Bill Monroe
13. Joe Medwick

The best LF in the game for a good stretch – triple crown winners tend to add value.

14. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly outstanding peak, and as I keep reading, he may jump to the Ferrell level.

15. George Burns

Herman is just off the ballot

Rixey is 26 – His teams weren’t as bad as some here feel, and I think that there is overcompensation happening. In addition, I give no credit for missed time in 18 and 19. If this is to be challenged, I’ll be happy to provide my reasoning.

Hack is in the 40s.


A MP HoM update for those interested…
I’ve got 6 differences in my personal Hall from the consensus. I have inducted Jennings, Griffith, Waddell, Beckwith, Ferrell and Redding, while our shared hall has instead selected Sutton, Grant, McGinnity, Hill, Cronin and Greenberg.

The last two have a puncher’s chance of seeing the MP HoM, while I don’t see the other 4 ever getting in…
   79. David C. Jones Posted: June 27, 2005 at 11:53 PM (#1435276)
I'm really sorry for not getting a ballot in guys. I've been super busy this week with SABR-related work, and will be for the next couple of months, so it's going to have to be off and on for awhile for me.

John you have my permission to use the preliminary ballot I posted in the ballot thread for this year.
   80. karlmagnus Posted: June 27, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1435289)
79 would clearly appear to make it legal to use David C. Jones' preliminary ballot, unless it is otherwise invalid :-))
   81. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 28, 2005 at 12:01 AM (#1435300)
The election is now over (David just made it under the wire :-). Results will be up shortly.
   82. OCF Posted: June 28, 2005 at 12:23 AM (#1435376)
From the discussion thread. This is David C. Jones talking, not me. I just wanted to put it here for the sake of the archives.

--

Preliminary Ballot:

1. Arky Vaughan. I think he was better than Wells. In fact, Vaughan is sort of the prototypical HOM candidate that I love. A good, long extended peak of excellence before fading away a bit early.

2. Willie Wells. Very comfortable with my placement of him.

3. John Beckwith. A change. I'm moving Beckwith up one slot and Arlett down one slot. I decided I wasn't giving Beckwith enough credit for his defensive position.

4. Buzz Arlett

5. Mule Suttles

6. Pete Browning

7. Joe Medwick. I have a feeling the electorate is going to be too hard on him. He had three or four outstanding seasons, and a few more good ones. I like him slightly over Cravath.

8. Gavy Cravath

9. Jose Mendez

10. Edd Roush

11. Wes Ferrell

12. Rube Waddell

13. Dick Redding

14. Ben Taylor

15. George Sisler

I'm still working on Hilton Smith.

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