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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, September 12, 2005

1960 Ballot

Newbies: Hal Newhouser, Leon Day, Silvio Garcia, Phil Cavaretta, Johnny Pesky, and Allie Reynolds.

Returnees: Joe Medwick, Red Ruffing, Hughie Jennings, Biz Mackey, Wes Ferrell, Earl Averill, Eppa Rixey, and Clark Griffith.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 12, 2005 at 12:34 PM | 128 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 12, 2005 at 01:01 PM (#1613262)
hot topics
   2. sunnyday2 Posted: September 12, 2005 at 02:37 PM (#1613401)
1960

karl, where are you? I almost always put in my ballot on Monday a.m., but have never gotten in ahead of you!? Well, let's see.

1. Hughie Jennings (3 lat year-1-2, PHoM 1927)
2. Dobie Moore (4-2-3, PHoM 1942)

Great peak shortstops back on top.

3. Joe Medwick (5-3-4, PHoM 1954)
4. George Sisler (6-4-5, PHoM 1938)

Great peak hitters next. I don't see Averill or Johnson having the peaks these guys had nor am I big on MiL credit.

5. Tommy Bond (7-5-6, PHoM 1929)

Great peak pitcher next.

5a. Lou Boudreau (e-9-11, PHoM 1960)

Another shortstop with not as consistently high a peak as the top 2.

6. Hal Newhouser (new, PHoM 1960)

As I said on the discussion thread, I always thought Prince Hal was a legit. HoFer and that I was probably going to be his BF. I guess not. I can't pretend that others placing him as high as #1 hasn't influenced this vote, as he moves up from #11 on prelim.

7. Rube Waddell (8-6-7, PHoM 1932)
8. Jose Mendez (9-7-8, PHoM 1957)

More great peak pitchers.

9. Addie Joss (10-11-12)
10. Ed Williamson (11-12-13, PHoM 1924)
11. Willard Brown (12-10-x)
11a. John Beckwith (na-e-10)

All (except Williamson of course) also get PHoM consideration every year. Now next in line.

12. Pete Browning (13-13-15)
13. Charley Jones (14-15-x, PHoM 1921)

Remaining great 19C hitters.

14. Joe Gordon (15-x-14)
14a. Stan Hack (e-14-x)

Will get their PhoM consideration some day.

15. Dick Redding (last on my ballot in 1939)

Re-eval of NeL and also of ML pitchers brings the Cannonball all the way back from #46 last year.

Dropped out: none

Required: see below I think they're all in there.

Among #16-50, I need to understand Coimbre better, he might belong higher up. I'm fairly satisfied with all the rest, though I always have some angst about the pitchers. Hard to believe Leon Day is at #49 and I have little remorse about it. Actually the spread from Hilton Smith at #29 might be a little large but there are always examples like that.

16-21. Klein, Doyle, Cravath, Coimbre (new), Doerr, Duffy
22-26. Trouppe, (Stovey), Rixey, Averill, Cicotte, Childs
27-31. Dean, Oms, Monroe, H. Smith, Sewell, Griffith
32-36. Roush, McCormick, Bell, Byrd, Elliott
37-41. Bresnahan, Matlock, Traynor, (Keeler), Mullane, Gomez
42-47. A. Cooper, (Faber), Lundy, Mackey, Ferrell, Ruffing, Bancroft
48-52. Keller, Wilson, Dunlap, (Sheckard), Day, Welch
   3. TomH Posted: September 12, 2005 at 02:55 PM (#1613432)
sunny, given your preference for peak performance, I'm surprised that Wes Ferrell is in the 40s on your ballot; his peak/prime (if you count his hitting at all) was as good or better for his day as Rube's or Joss's or Bond's IMHO, and certainly better than Eppa's [see what happens when you go first on a ballot...you get picked on :) ]
   4. sunnyday2 Posted: September 12, 2005 at 03:49 PM (#1613501)
I do manage to get the really sound "career" candidates into my consideration set, so they show up somehwere. Even Ruffing at #46 and Mickey Welch at #52.

To me, Ferrell's peak is awfully reminiscent of Dean's. Just not as high as some others, like Prince Hal's for example. I am probably not giving enough credit for pitcher hitting, however.
   5. ronw Posted: September 12, 2005 at 03:58 PM (#1613518)
1960 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Pete Browning I have been convinced that he was more unique than Redding, and thus deserves a higher spot. Failing to electing Pete is like failing to elect Hank Greenberg. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. When the Gladiator retired, only Brouthers, Connor, and Anson were probably better hitters.

2. Dick Redding I think he is like an Eddie Plank rather than an Eppa Rixey for career value. As a long-career flamethrower, maybe he is even a Nolan Ryan, although maybe with this sabermetric crowd I shouldn’t say that.

3. Hal Newhouser Not that we should have quotas of lefties, but we’ve only elected Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Bill Foster, and Eddie Plank. Newhouser does seem near that group, but a little below. I see him as having a similar value to Stan Coveleski.

4. Cupid Childs Seems far ahead of all eligible 2B.

5. John McGraw Mugsy’s RCAA domination of the rough-and-tumble 1890’s, combined with his head-and-shoulders status above all other 3B tells me we missed him. I’m not sure why the huge support for Jennings has not been applied to McGraw.

6. Hugh Jennings Packed more into his five years than many SS’s do in a career.

7. Dobie Moore We’ve missed him.

8.Biz Mackey I think we may be missing some offense. A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a bit lower peak.

9. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

10. George Sisler Drops thanks to Chris Cobb. He didn’t put up the late career numbers that other players playing in his parks theoretically would have. He still put some decent numbers, and played every day.

11. Tommy Bridges Looking at Newhouser made me realize that Bridges was nearly as valuable a pitcher. Also similar to Coveleski in value.

12. Wes Ferrell Fine pitcher peak.

13. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

14. Bill Monroe The 2B glut is rivaling the CF glut.

15. George Van Haltren I see him as a better hitter candidate than Medwick, Johnson, or Averill.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Joe Medwick – Surprisingly behind contemporary Bob Johnson, but I wouldn’t object to his making the HOM. For what it is worth, I see him as behind all HOM LF except Jimmy Sheckard.

Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good. Still, I think I would rather have Lefty Gomez. For what it is worth, I see him as behind all HOM P except Red Faber.

Earl Averill – A bit more than Hack Wilson, but not quite enough to vault him on the ballot. It is getting hard for outfielders to accumulate the career stats to make my ballot.

Eppa Rixey – I’ve supported him in the past, but now I like a little more peak.

Clark Griffith – Is just off the ballot.

Leon Day – I don’t think he was quite Newhouser. Seems similar to Bob Lemon.

Silvio Garcia – Solid career, but I don’t think enough for the HOM.

Phil Cavarretta – Fine player.

Johnny Pesky – Short career, even with war credit.

Allie Reynolds – Blessed with a great team.
   6. karlmagnus Posted: September 12, 2005 at 04:35 PM (#1613582)
Newhouser, when you discount WWII, is a pretty close comp to Cicotte, with a slightly shorter career, so becomes a mid-ballot candidate, just below Joss. Cavarretta shortish career, surprisingly, and only 118 OPS+, so off the bottom. Day’s 175-148 doesn’t quite do it.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-4-5-4-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-5-6-5-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-7-7-6-8) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just above Rixey.

7. (N/A) Hal Newhouser. 2993IP is shortish, but 207-150 and 130 ERA+ both excellent – average as a hitter. War discount should be quality, not length, so his career shouldn’t be shortened but his ERA+ reduced to the 122-125 level. At that level, he’s Cicotte with a slightly shorter career.

8. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7-6-8-8-7-9) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

10. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14-13-11) Clark Griffith credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.
   7. karlmagnus Posted: September 12, 2005 at 04:39 PM (#1613590)
11. (N/A-10-9-12) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754.

12. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, even if some of it was during the war years. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

13. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-11-14) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

14. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

15. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-14-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season.

17. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits.

20. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

21. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

22. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
23.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
24. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
25. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
26. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
27. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
28. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
29. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
30. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
31. (N/A) Heinie Manush
32. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
33. Earl Averill. Fairly well off my ballot, and I think the team are giving him too much minor league credit. In the real world, 2019 hits at an OPS+ of 133 doesn’t get him close to the HOM. Not as good as Tiernan.
34. Wes Ferrell. Not enough career.
35. (N/A) Dick Lundy
36. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
37. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
38. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
39. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
40. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
41. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
42. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
43. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
44. Kiki Cuyler
45. Deacon McGuire
46. Jack Quinn
47. Tony Mullane
48. Pye Traynor
49. Jim McCormick
50. Dick Redding
51. Joe Judge
52. Edd Roush
53. Spotswood Poles.
54. Larry Doyle
55. Roger Bresnahan.
56. Wayte Hoyt.
57. Joe Gordon.
58. Harry Hooper.
59. Jules Thomas.
60. Wilbur Cooper
61. Bruce Petway.
62. Jack Clements
63. Bill Monroe
64. Jose Mendez
65. Herb Pennock
66. Chief Bender
67. Ed Konetchy
68. Bob Elliott. War years discount drops him to here – short career. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .770 would have him up around Childs otherwise – it’s a tight ballot after about #10.
69. Jesse Tannehill
70. Bobby Veach
71. Lave Cross
72. Tommy Leach.
73. Tom York
   8. TomH Posted: September 12, 2005 at 05:46 PM (#1613725)
"Hal Newhouser.......he’s Cicotte with a slightly shorter career"
--
maybe true in a very literal sense, but only if by analogy Dickey Pearce had a shorter career than Omar Vizquel (hey, he played in fewer games!)
--
Newhouser finished in the top 3 in IP 6 times. Cicotte did this twice.

We can argue about timelining for quality, but there must be a resonable adjustment for different conditions. And given this adjustment, Newhouser had effectively a longer career than Cicotte (and Joss, and Waddell, and....)
   9. yest Posted: September 12, 2005 at 06:04 PM (#1613770)
my trip was delayed/cancelled so her's my 1960 ballot
Newhouser and Dihigo make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
13. Hal Newhouser (makes my personal HoM this year)
14. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
15. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
16. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
17. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
19. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
28. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
29. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
30. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice
33. Alejandro Oms the recent discussion put him here
34. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is just off my ballot
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot
   10. Jim Sp Posted: September 12, 2005 at 09:17 PM (#1613807)
Welcome back, Rube. Newhouser #11, Day off ballot around #45. Elliott and Medwick for my PHoM this year.

1)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while. PHoM in 1948.
2)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. PHoM in 1960.
3)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
4)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
6)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
7)Medwick-- PHoM in 1960.
8)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
9)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
10)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
11)Newhouser--
12)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
13)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
14)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career. PHoM in 1939.
15)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters. PHoM in 1916.

Ruffing#18.
Hughie Jennings—impressive peak, not enough career.
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #25.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
   11. yest Posted: September 12, 2005 at 09:31 PM (#1613842)
out of 10 election spots we have 10 differant players
   12. OCF Posted: September 12, 2005 at 09:40 PM (#1613873)
out of 10 election spots we have 10 differant players

And Ruffing (#2 on the waiting list) has no votes at all yet.

Yeah - and if we stopped the election right now and ran consensus scores, yest would be the highest and Jim Sp the lowest. It ain't gonna stay that way.
   13. Jim Sp Posted: September 12, 2005 at 10:07 PM (#1613959)
I'm not looking back--yest might be gaining on me.
   14. yest Posted: September 12, 2005 at 11:09 PM (#1614096)
Yeah - and if we stopped the election right now and ran consensus scores, yest would be the highest and Jim Sp the lowest. It ain't gonna stay that way.

For the past few elections I noticed that my guys (-Traynor of course) did great in the first few ballots
   15. KJOK Posted: September 13, 2005 at 04:19 PM (#1615338)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. HAL NEWHOUSER, P 309 RSAA, 235 Neutral Fibonacci WIns, 130 ERA+ and 106 WARP1 in 2,993 Innings. Unless we’re not going to elect ANY primarily 1940’s players, he belongs.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP, 282 RCAP, 75 WARP1, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher from 1880s – 1915 means he should be in HOM.

3. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP, 346 RCAP, 103 WARP1, 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

4. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter.

5. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP, 271 RCAP, 78 WARP1, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

6. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP, 263 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

7. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP, 459 RCAP, 78 WARP1, 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND best 3B between 1875-1900!

8. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s.

9. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP, 245 RCAP, 115 WARPP1, 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Probably best first baseman from 1880 – 1920.

10. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

11. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

12. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP, 354 RCAP, 104 WARP1, 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

13. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. .610 OWP, 241 RCAP, 90 WARP1, 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Underrated.

14. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player.

15. EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

JOHNNY PESKY, SS. .555 OWP, 111 RCAP, 56 WARP1, 5.516 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Giving him every possible favorable assumption on War credit would get him up to Sewell, but my more conservative method has him off ballot.

LEON DAY, P. 124 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 109 MLE ERA+ in 2,725 innings. Comps closely with Dizzy Dismukes and Phil Cockrell, which won’t get him on the ballot.

RETURNEES:

BOBBY DOERR, 2B. .539 OWP, 234 RCAP, 107 WARP1, 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Falls just behind Monroe and Childs.

JOE GORDON, 2B. .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr.

BOB JOHNSON, LF. .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Goes to near head of the class of OF glut, but falls just short of ballot.

EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP, 321 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp.

JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP, 267 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 8,142 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Initially overrated Medwick, so he’s moved off-ballot.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP, 478 RCAP, 95 WARP1, 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP, 81 WARP1, 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior. Even Pennants Added likes Tiernan.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, 118 WARP1, 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

DUTCH LEONARD, P. 209 RSAA, 185 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, 92 WARP1 and 119 ERA+ in 3,220 innings. I have him very close to Farrell, but Farrell doesn’t make my ballot…

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.

RED RUFFING, P. 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Good for awhile, and could hit, but I’d vote for Ferrell or even Welch first.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception somewhat a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.
   16. sunnyday2 Posted: September 13, 2005 at 04:23 PM (#1615343)
Now 6 ballots, 12 elect-me slots, no duplicates.
   17. TomH Posted: September 13, 2005 at 04:47 PM (#1615387)
If I posted my ballot now, it would make 7 and 14!
   18. Mark Donelson Posted: September 13, 2005 at 06:14 PM (#1615576)
Some more tweaking this time, though it’s getting less and less major each time (a good sign?):


• I learned belatedly that the WS estimates I’d been using for some of the NeL pitchers needed to be adjusted down slightly (per Chris). This didn’t change Méndez’s standing at all, oddly—I had apparently been adjusting his numbers already, perhaps instinctively (or, more likely, just making a mistake). But it did rob both Redding and Matlock of the high peaks I thought they had, and that knocked them down significantly—in Redding’s case, from on-ballot to well off.


• As I was figuring out where to put Redding post-adjustment, I started looking over Vic Willis’s numbers again and decided I’d been underestimating him. He’s a peak voter’s dream, really.


• I’d been badly underestimating Tommy Leach, too (anti-Pittsburgh bias?), penalizing him in comparison with other 3Bs rather than looking at him compared to other CFs and boosting him a bit for the 3B time. He gets into my top 50 now, though not particularly close to my ballot.


• After going over the Medwick Files one more time, I didn't change Medwick's placement, but I did give Bob Johnson a bit of a boost for the underperforming-team year. That got him into my top 50, knocking Chuck Klein out.


• The new candidates: Newhouser easily takes a high spot on my ballot. I was surprised at how much this Yankee fan likes Pesky, but he falls just outside my top 50. Day, Garcia, and Cavaretta, all excellent players, are not close to my top 50. And Reynolds wasn’t even that good, except, for some reason, in the World Series; he’s beyond not close.


1960 ballot


1. Hughie Jennings. A dominant force, for just long enough.


2. Rube Waddell. Still my favorite of the unelected pitchers, though Newhouser gave him a run for his money.


3. Hal Newhouser. I’m grateful to this process for making me appreciate him; I’d always thought of him as a wartime mirage. But his peak extends well beyond the war, and it’s a huge one even after you dock the war years. A very impressive candidate; it’s possible he deserves to be even higher, but the fog of [World] War [II] makes it hard for me to be sure.


4. Wes Ferrell. Great peak, also for just long enough. The hitting helps, too.


5. Dobie Moore. Nothing but peak, but what a peak!


6. George Sisler. He wasn’t as good as most think he was, but he still had a nice run as a top hitter.


7. José Méndez. I get the feeling I would have loved to watch this guy pitch. Great peak, and the head-to-head matchups with the era’s top white pitchers convince me it’s for real.


8. Joe Medwick. After processing both sides of the Medwick controversy, I have him settled pretty firmly here.


9. Hugh Duffy. For me, the best of the CF glut.


10. Biz Mackey. It’s still mainly his reputation that’s keeping him above Trouppe, which makes me uncomfortable. But flipping them would make me more uncomfortable, so Mackey stays here for now.


11. Cupid Childs. Another short but brilliant peak is enough to put him at the top of my 2B list.


12. Willard Brown. Seems to have been a Beckwith-level hitter, or nearly so.


13. (N)ed Williamson. He could arguably go even higher, but I’ll stay conservative with my schedule adjustments and put him here. By far the best of the eligible but unelected 3Bs, though.


14. Earl Averill. Played well enough long enough to get here, despite not having the blazing peak I usually require.


15. Vic Willis. He should always have been a favorite of mine…I’m not sure why I had him lower the first two times around.


16-20: Trouppe, Gordon, Berger, Walters, Doyle
21-25: Keller, Doerr, Bresnahan, Wilson, McCormick
26-30: Dean, Charley Jones, Oms, Poles, Leach
31-35: Roush, Browning, Redding, Cravath, Grimes
36-40: Chance, Ryan, Cicotte, Burns, Dunlap
41-45: Joss, Mays, Van Haltren, Welch, Matlock
46-50: Veach, Griffith, Bob Johnson, Rixey, Fielder Jones

Required Disclosures:
Red Ruffing (not in top 50): I’m a pretty extreme peak voter, and he, well, didn’t have one.


Eppa Rixey (49th): Pretty much the same as Ruffing, except I can't ignore the sustained quality completely.


Clark Griffith (47th): He has a bit of a peak, but not enough of one.


Cool Papa Bell (not in top 50): I want to give his reputation some cred, but it seems that even best-case, he’s a career player, not a peak one. He’s just outside my top 50.


Jake Beckley (not in top 50): See Ruffing; I see them as quite similar cases.
   19. Mark Donelson Posted: September 13, 2005 at 06:19 PM (#1615593)
Sorry about the extra spaces. It's the copy editor in me; I'm leaving room for editorial comments. :)
   20. Mark Donelson Posted: September 13, 2005 at 06:21 PM (#1615596)
Sorry about the extra spaces. It's the copy editor in me; I'm leaving room for editorial comments. :)
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: September 13, 2005 at 06:27 PM (#1615608)
Hughie rules!

By a 5-4 vote the Supreme Court says stop counting.
   22. DavidFoss Posted: September 13, 2005 at 06:30 PM (#1615613)
For the past few elections I noticed that my guys (-Traynor of course) did great in the first few ballots

Its usually the same three voters (karlmagnus, RonWargo, sunnyday2) early on Monday. That list used to include John, but he's started to vote later in the week.
   23. Rusty Priske Posted: September 13, 2005 at 06:59 PM (#1615668)
PHoM: Cool Papa Bell & Joe Medwick

1. Red Ruffing (4,2,2)

Will this be his year? A little udnerrated, but should get in, though maybe not now.

2. Jake Beckley (3,7,8)

Overdue.

3. Eppa Rixey (6,11,6)

I can't figure out why he ends up so high. I tried to devalue some of his strengths a couple years back, but that seemed so arbitrary.

In short, I'm not a booster, but here he is anyway.

4. George Van Haltren (5,4,5)

Incredibly undervalued.

5. Mickey Welch (1,6,11)

I refuse to give up on him.

6. Willard Brown (7,1,x)

A comfortable mid-balloter.

7. Cool Papa Bell (10,10,9)

I feel better now that he is in my PHoM. It just seemed wrong to not support him more.

8. Joe Medwick (8,5,7)

9. Biz Mackey (9,9,12)

10. George Sisler (11,12,15)

11. Tommy Leach (14,13,13)

Another undervalued candidate, but I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel.

12. Dobie Moore (12,15,x)

13. Edd Roush (x,x,14)

Returns without a top new candidate.

14. Sam Rice (13,x,x)

Filler, really.

15. Quincy Trouppe (15,x,x)

I'm surprised he doesn't have more support.

16-20. Ryan, Averill, Powell, Childs, Elliott
21-25. Duffy, H. Smith, Streeter, White, Griffith
26-30. Jennings, Mullane, Sewell, Monroe, Strong

I have Newhouser around #50. He isn't as good as Jennings, and I don't think Jennigns is particularly qualified.
   24. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 13, 2005 at 08:20 PM (#1615823)
Chaleeko Productions presents a ballot for a new decade!!!!

Chaleeko Productions in association with Big Whoop Pictures presents Dr. Chaleeko's 1960 Ballot...a stirring account of one man's trials and tribulations with fielding stats, time WARPs, and just general crankiness.

STARRING
(in order of appearance)
1) Hugh Duffy: Very good peak, excellent defensive CF, and concentrated a lot of value into his prime. All considerations I like.

2) Alejandro Oms: Long, wonderful career with a decent if unspectacular peak. Also an outstanding gloveman.

3) Jose Mendez: Big time peak. Good hitter, shoulder seasons to boot. His thread merits a re-visit by voters and, perhaps, a reconsideration by Chris to see if there's anything that his latest group of MLE best practices can tell us.

4) Joe Medwick: Chris C's very interesting analysis of Medwick, Sisler, Johnson, and Averill had the interesting effect of solidifying my placements of three of them, and causing me to dramatically shift support toward another of them, then also to further adjust upward the support of a fifth player. Medwick stays put, at the eye of this particular storm, however, stays put. This might seem peculiar in light of Chris's conclusion, but there's a difference: I consider peak and prime in non-continous years, and Medwick's discontinuous peak has got the bling bling and the cha-ching.

5) Gavy Cravath: Cravath's position remains steady as well.

6) Pete Browning: Here's the first major movement on my ballot. He's gone from off the ballot, to one the ballot, to mid-lower ballot, to kickin Gavy's shins in the matter of a week or two on the strength of his peak. Yes, I do discount his early AA stats a bit.

7) Leroy Matlock: This guy looks huge in my system...and in no one else's.

8) Bucky Walters: Same here, but with a few more friends. Most folks have the peak pitchers in my reverse order....

9) Hal Newhouser: Winner of the 1960 Official Dr. Chaleeko Dazzy-Vance Ballot Slot Rookie of the Year Award. I like him more than this ballot placement might indicate.

10) George Sisler: Sisler just went from about 30th to 10th in the blink of an eye. Despite Karlmagnus's longtime encouragement to revisit first-base defense, it was only in the context of the Medwick v. Averill v. Johnson v. Sisler discussions that I finally did it. Thanks, Chris, for sharing your method. Anyway, the increased defensive credit was enough to rocket Sisler 20 places in an extremely tightly packed ballot by increasing the profile of his peak and prime.

To answer the question Karl's bound to ask, yes, I did refigure Beckley's fielding (as well Chance, Fournier, Terry), and, no, Becks Light is still nowhere close to my 15th slot.

11) Wes Ferrell: The biggest (and probably sorest) loser in the re-evals of Browning and Sisler, he and everyone below loses two ballot slots from me.

12) George J. Burns: In case you didn't hear, he's a better candidate than Ralph Kiner. Sometimes the little things do add up. ; )

13a) Stan Hack (pHOM eta currently 1965)
13b) Billy Herman (pHOM eta currently 1968)
13c) Ted Lyons (pHOM eta currently 1968)

13) Willard Brown: Strong peak and prime, long career, the man could hit and was athletic enough, IMO, to hold down CF for the better portion of his career.

14) Quincy Trouppe: When I prorate to 162 and give my usual catcher bonus, Trouppe emerges as a very strong candidate with credentials better than Joe Torre's or Ted Simmons's, but not quite so good as Gary Carter's.

15) Red Ruffing: A long career that was a little better than Eppa Rixey's. One of them is the GVH of pitchers.

------------------------------------------
ALSO FEATURING
16) Hughie Jennings: I wonder if he'll return to my ballot before he's elected? Next year could be his last chance to slip onto the bottom half before he's elected or a slew of new backloggers comes along.

17) Earl Averill: Unless he's elected very soon, the question we will soon bump up against is which Cleveland CF was more HOMeritorious? Averill or Doby? I've begun the process of MLEing Doby's early years---and the dude could whack a baseball---but the determiner here will ultiamtely be how many seasons the electorate feels Doby should receive credit for. Stay tuned....

18) Eppa Rixey: Better than TJ. Not better than RR.

19) Geo. Van Haltren: His named sounds like a combination of bridges over to Manhattan. The lower deck of the GVH is experiencing long delays as people make their way to Yankee Stadium... Anyway, you know the story here.

20) Dobie Moore: I like him better than Lou Boudreau but not as much as Hughie.

WITH
Biz Mackey: floating in around #40, I love the career, but his peak/prime don't do it for me. He's well behind Trouppe in my rankings.

Clark Griffith: I've never gotten him and probably never will, he's off my radar.

AND INTRODUCING...
Leon Day: I didn't like Hilton Smith the first time around, why should like him now?

Silvio Garcia: The MLEs tell a compelling story of a guy who couldn't draw a walk and hit for occasional power. It's possible a couple years are being dampened by Cuba's pitcher-friendly confines, but not so much that it's filling the plot with uncertainty.

Phil Cavaretta: Doesn't he do impersonations? Oh, sorry that's Fred Travelina....
Now for my next impression, here's Birdie Tebbets being chased by a hopping-a*s mad Hal Newhouser!

Johnny Pesky: Did you hear the one about Pesky's pole? Even with liberal war credit, he's just off the radar.

THAT'S A WRAP
Allie Reynolds: Get it???
   25. TomH Posted: September 13, 2005 at 08:36 PM (#1615864)
I say Big Whoop to you! Actually that was terribly amusing as the last post I will read before turning off my office comptuer for the day. Thanks Doc.
   26. Mark Donelson Posted: September 13, 2005 at 09:06 PM (#1615928)
So far, looks like Newhouser and (oddly enough) Sisler are the leaders, if I'm counting correctly. Prince Hal's on every ballot but one, and Gorgeous George is on all but two.

Long way to go, obviously.
   27. jimd Posted: September 13, 2005 at 09:13 PM (#1615951)
(Cast)

Ballot for 1960

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next month.


1) H. NEWHOUSER -- BP discounts the war years. They see 1945 as very close to 1946 and 1944 as similar to 1948 (WARP-3). 1944-49 is an extraordinary 6 year peak. With career, even Jennings takes a back seat.

2) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

5) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

6) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

7) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

8) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

9) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

11) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus gets him on ballot.

12) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

13) E. AVERILL -- Giving a little bit of PCL credit.

14) R. MARANVILLE -- Very long career playing great defense; needs a little more bat.

15) G. CRAVATH -- Needs more support.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Tommy Leach, Hugh Duffy, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan,
20-23) Dick Redding, Eppa Rixey, Ray Schalk, Dick Lundy,
24-27) Ned Williamson, Bobby Doerr, Joe Gordon, Joe Medwick,
28-31) Herman Long, Jim McCormick, Wally Schang, Rube Waddell,
32-35) Edd Roush, Roger Bresnahan, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
   28. jimd Posted: September 13, 2005 at 09:17 PM (#1615961)
So far, looks like Newhouser and (oddly enough) Sisler are the leaders

Just a gentle reminder. It's not considered appropriate to comment on the current point totals for an on-going election.
   29. yest Posted: September 13, 2005 at 09:29 PM (#1615990)
So far, looks like Newhouser and (oddly enough) Sisler are the leaders

it's not so odd Sisler usuly does very well for the first few ballots
   30. Mark Donelson Posted: September 13, 2005 at 10:08 PM (#1616104)
jimd--and everyone else--

My apologies. Didn't know the protocol. Won't happen again.
   31. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: September 14, 2005 at 12:54 AM (#1616466)
Farting around trying to come up with my own guesstimate math formula for ranking hitters reminded me of why I avoided doing if for so long (since it's constructed on the fly it's possible for it to worsen my ballot rather than strengthen it, hard to figure what tweaks help it rather than hurt it, etc). Frankly, if my system were a person it would be biting the heads of of chickens at the local carny because it really is a geek show stat.

Still, I'm glad I did it because it did help organize my thoughts to some extent, make me take a closer look at all of them, etc. I changed it considerably since publishing the initial results on the discussion thread. Mainly, I'll use it as a rough guideline, but under no sense whatsoever will I ever pay too much attention to it.

Fun fact: none of the top three returnees are on my ballot.

New & "improved" ballot:

1. Clark Griffith. Personal favorite 1890s pitcher. Nice career, nice prime. The Rodney Dangerfield of the Hall of Merit.

2. Cool Papa Bell. I try to balance the info in the threads with general reputation. Also, I think the MLEs might underrate him (see my comment in the Bell thread).

3. George Sisler. Really moving up for me. He's got two things I really like: great prime/peak, and good total career values.

4. Biz Mackey. Better than Schang, and I have Schang on the ballot. IIRC, he's the #1 choice of both experts and players in the "Cool Papas and Double Duties" book as best Negro Leaguer not in Cooperstown.

5. Eppa Rixey. I like the big long career guys (that's the only reason Eppa even makes my ballot). I'm giving him a little WWI credit. I see him as not quite as good in his era as Mickey Welch was in his era.

6. Earl Averill. Great prime. Decent career value. Some minor leauge credit. It all adds up.

7. George Van Haltren Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch.

8. Hal Newhouser. A devastatingly good pitcher for a while. Most wins prior to age 30 of any liveballer.

9. Wes Ferrell. He was a monster for a while, and lasted just long enough to rack up some decent career numbers.

10. Jake Beckley. Not a real peak, but a very long and very deep prime. Add that in with his career value and here he is.

11. Pete Browning. Best pure hitter out there. Even adjusting for quality of competition and he's a monster.

12. Joe Gordon. Childs, Gordon, and Doyle are all very close in my mind.

13. Cupid Childs. Great prime, good defensive, nice career. Best second baseman available.

14. Ernie Lombardi. Great hitting prime at a tough position to hit at. Terrible defense, though.

15. Larry Doyle. Yet another very good first baseman.

Dropped off the ballot and/or top returnees not on:

16. Jimmy Ryan. For me the hardest positions to gauge were CF and 2B because there were several of each I thought were all real close and very good. I wouldn't mind him being on my ballot still, but there's only 15 slots and about 25 guys I'd like on.

17. Edd Rousch. Nice prime, good career length, good fielding, nice on the baseball paths. An overall good player. Drops some due to inability to stay healthy over the course of a year.

18. Mickey Welch. Thank you retrosheet. Turns out he earned those 300 wins. Offensive support only gave him 3-4 wins. Falls for me as I just don't think he was as valuble to his teams in his era as the guys ahead of him.

19. Joe Medwick. Flipping him and Johnson. Not as much of his value came in WWII and a higher peak.

21. Wally Schang. Drop in my reevaluations, though I still like him.

26. Red Ruffing. Good pitcher, but should've had better numbers for his career.

38. Hughie Jennings. Needs a career to go with that peak.

42. Tommy Leach. Huge drop for a guy who had previously routinely been on my ballot.
   32. OCF Posted: September 14, 2005 at 01:26 AM (#1616526)
1960 ballot.

1. Red Ruffing (7, 4, 4, 2, 3) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
2. Hal Newhouser (new) Career short but brilliant. Yes, his 1944-1945 competition was weaker, but his accomplishments still stand out.
3. Larry Doyle (5, 5, 5, 3, 4) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
4. Ducky Wucky Medwick (6, 6, 6, 4, 5) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
5. George Van Haltren (9, 7, 8, 6, 6) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
6. Eppa Rixey (10, 8, 9, 7, 7) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
7. Wes Ferrell (11, 9, 10, 8, 8) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
8. Joe Sewell (8, 11, 11, 9, 9) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
9. Earl Averill (13, 14, 12, 10, 10) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
10. Jake Beckley (14, 13, 13, 11, 11) Not much peak, long career.
11. Biz Mackey (15, 14, 14, 12, 12) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
12. Jose Mendez (23, 23, 15, 13, 13) A peak-value pitching candidate.
13. Dick Redding (24, 24, 16, 14, 14) A career-value pitching candidate.
14. Bob Elliott (----, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
15. Quincy Trouppe (-----) Am becoming convinced that he had the goods; replaces Bresnahan in my top 30.
16. Willard Brown (---, 15, 16) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
17. Hugh Duffy (16, 15, 17, 16, 17)
18. Bucky Walters (18, 17, 19, 18, 19) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
19. Cupid Childs (19, 18, 20, 19, 19) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
20. Joe Gordon (-, 19, 21, 20, 20) Not much to choose from between him and Herman.
21. Tommy Bridges (20, 20, 22, 21, 21) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
22. Cool Papa Bell (21, 21, 23, 22, 22) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
23. Edd Roush (22, 22, 24, 23, 23) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
24. George Sisler (25, 25, 25, 24, 24) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
25. Bobby Doerr (--, 26, 25, 25)
26. Dobie Moore (---, 26, 26) Short career, high peak.
27. Bob Johnson (26, 26, 27, 27, 27) A late bloomer, excellent hitter, steady career. WWII discount keeps him out of the top 15.
28. Frank Chance (28, 28, 28, 28, 28) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
29. Rube Waddell (29, 29, 29, 29, 29) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
30. Johnny Paveskovich (new) Only about as many games as Chance, which is a problem, but without the war, it could have been 1700 games. Very good hitter for a SS, if you consider him a SS.
   33. andrew siegel Posted: September 14, 2005 at 10:34 AM (#1616855)
I usually vote early but I'm going to have to wait this week. I'm having a hard time ordering my number 1 and 2 guys and an impossible time ordering number 8 through 15. Since every point counts this week, I'm going to sleep on it a few more days. I've been voting every year since the beginning and this is the first time I've delayed a ballot more than a day or two out of fear that I will screw up the overall results.
   34. TomH Posted: September 14, 2005 at 04:04 PM (#1617214)
1960 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

As of 1959, no player has gained HoM status without being somewhere on my ballot. That may change this week, as I cannot find a spot for 2 of our 3 top returnees. Part of that is the ballot is deeper now than when (for example, my lowest rated honoree) Red Faber made his way in. Red was about at #7 for me when elected. Today he would slip to around 18th.

A new first for me: Pitchers get the top 4 spots. And three of them aren’t in any danger of being elected this time.

1-Hal Newhouser {new}
Dare I put the new guy at #1 and possibly commit the error of the Shiny New Toy? No bout a doubt it. He has the peak of Hughie Jennings, except longer. He compares very well against Wes Ferrell, who is my #3, reagrdless of measure used. ‘Nuf said!
2-Clark Griffith (3) [10]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other eligible player in our backlog.
3-Wes Ferrell (4) [7]
Career ERA of 4.04, but his league/park average ERA was 4.72. Then add in the huge bat. Very strong prime.
4-Bucky Walters (5) [25]
Hidden greatness? Faced strong opponents, didn’t have many gold glovers behind him, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. Am I his best friend?
5-Joe Sewell (6) [17]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Joe wants all of the voters to learn the Village People song R…C…A….P.…it’s all about the R….C….A….P…!
6-George Van Haltren (7) [12]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
7-Red Ruffing (8) [4]
Eppa Rixey, plus he could hit. Nice World Series stats.
8-Cool Papa Bell (9) [13]
If I envision the basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays, Bell comes out as a HoMer, even with a mediocre bat. And that’s what his rep makes him out to be. My best guess is that our MLEs understate Bell’s real value.
9-Biz Mackey (10) [6]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
10-Earl Averill (12) [8]
A bit of credit for his PCL yrs. Compared to GVH, hit a bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch.
11-John McGraw (11) [41]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
12-Joe Gordon (13) [28]
Well, now that I have his Win Share rate correct, he’s on my ballot.
13-Eppa Rixey (14) [9]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?
14-Willard Brown (15) [16]
Looks like a very good comp for Averill.
15-Frank Chance (off) [72]
Peerless leader. Managing may have Cost him playing time. A key cog on some dominant teams, and played well in many World Series. Probably more valuable defensively than most systems credit him for.

---------------------
tentative 16-20: Beckley, Sisler, Childs, Medwick, Monroe

Hughie Jennings (off) [5th] ….peak only, and my system doesn’t credit peak as much. About #25 for me; even with Dobie Moore. If Hughie gets elected, I won’t be upset. I don’t think he is being over-rated; it is merely that other voters value peak more than I do. Same with Ducky, about whom I can at least say we elected a guy who led the league in RBI three years in a row, and that ain’t nuthin to sneeze at.

Others in my top 40:
Pie Traynor …Fine player, fine rep; could he have played shortstop?
Cupid Childs …fine hitting second sacker, and playing IF in the 1890s was tough.
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Bobby Doerr ….a lot like Gordon
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Roger Bresnahan ...Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Dobie Moore …peak/prime shortstop
Bill Monroe …reasonable argument as best NegL 2Bman.
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
Alejandro Oms … another fine NegL Ofer
Vern Stephens … good but not great
Ralph Kiner … monster bat, not much else, short career.
   35. Lundy's Grandbaby Posted: September 14, 2005 at 05:52 PM (#1617485)
This discussion is very interesting. I am not a knowledge person when it comes to the stats and ongoings in regards to the players. I am getting into this and trying to gain more knowledge. I always see that my Granddad falls short of any recognition. Dick Lundy is my Granddad. Where do you get the stats and details from?.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
   36. Adam Schafer Posted: September 14, 2005 at 06:36 PM (#1617600)
Will be in Omaha over the weekend, so I have to get my ballot in now.




1. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team pitching against the same people for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Almost was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

2. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push him up this high on my ballot.

3. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

4. Wes Ferrell - Good peak, and just enough career to make me like him

5. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

6. Hal Newhouser - I initially didn't think he would make my ballot. After looks of good discussion amongst everyone, I was convinced that not only would he make my ballot, but he would jump up into the middle part of it. He'll probably make it this year, and I won't complain if he does as everyone that is currently on my ballot is people I would have in my PHOM if I kept one.

7. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman.

8. Red Ruffing - Did he pitch for good teams? Absolutely. That's not his fault.

9. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

10. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

11. Clark Griffith - wonderful career. If he hadn't of pitched after 1903 I bet people would look at him differently.

12. Earl Averill - Not the extended career that I like to see most of the time, but great peak and enough career value to merit a spot on my ballot.

13. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

14. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

15. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

Schang, Rixey, Bresnahan and Gordon are all just off of my ballot right now. Jennings doesn't have enough career value for me. I'll be looking long and hard at Indian Bob some more and he just might make my ballot in the next election, same goes for Bob Elliot, I really feel that I might be underrating him.
   37. OCF Posted: September 14, 2005 at 06:48 PM (#1617635)
Lundy's Grandbaby, you should at least take a look at this thread.

We welcome your attention. I would hope that one or more of Gadfly, Gary A, KJOK, or Chris Cobb would reply to you and give some more explanations.
   38. Lundy's Grandbaby Posted: September 14, 2005 at 07:55 PM (#1617787)
Thank you OCF - I will check out that string. At a glance, it is VERY informative.
   39. Sean Gilman Posted: September 15, 2005 at 12:19 AM (#1618366)
1960

1. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. (1927)

2. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Hughie Jennings (5)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

4. Cupid Childs (6)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

5. Tommy Leach (7)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

6. Clark Griffith (8)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

7. Larry Doyle (9)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

8. George Sisler (10)--That’s a nice peak.(1958)

9. Cool Papa Bell (11)--That’s a lot of career value.

10. Eppa Rixey (12)--Him too.

11. Hal Newhouser (-)--Higher than I expected to rank him, I may still be underrating him.

12. Joe Sewell (13)--Bit more career than Williamson. And WARP1 likes his peak better.

13. Bob Elliott (14)--Win Shares has him nearly even with Sewell, WARP’s got him even with Williamson, so he goes right in-between the two of them.

14. Ed Williamson (15)--Still chugging along. That timeline thing’s a killer.

15. Jose Mendez (16)--Starts a run of borderline pitchers. Though he’s the least famous of them, he appears to have the best peak.

16. Carl Mays (17)
17. Red Ruffing (18)
18. Wes Ferrell (19)
19. Bobby Doerr (20)
20. Dave Bancroft (21)
21. Joe Gordon (22)
22. Roger Bresnahan (23)
23. Dick Redding (24)
24. Hugh Duffy (25)
25. George Van Haltren (26)
   40. Howie Menckel Posted: September 15, 2005 at 01:38 AM (#1618678)
Lundy's Grandbaby,
We've definitely done some looking at Lundy, and might do some more. I promise you he's getting a fair shake, even if he doesn't get in the Hall of Merit.

Wow, swamped by work this week, I may wind up a weekend voter for once...
   41. Rick A. Posted: September 15, 2005 at 01:41 AM (#1618691)
PHOM
Hal Newhouser
Ed Williamson

1960 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Hughie Jennings – Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
3.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4.Hal Newhouser – Best pitcher on the ballot. Elected PHOM in 1960
5.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
6.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
7.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
8.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1958.
9.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1960
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Still in line to be a PHOM.
11.Burleigh Grimes – Moves up a little. Higher peak than Rixey.
12.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
13.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
14.Earl Averill - Decided to give minor league credit.
15.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings. Just misses my ballot.

Required Disclosures
Joe Medwick Not far from my ballot, but not to far from Bob Johnson either
Red Ruffing and Eppa Rixey Both pitcher drop due to my new emphasis on peak value.
Clark Griffith While I agree that Griffith was an overachiever, he's never fared well in my system.

New candidates
Leon Day and Johnny Pesky are the best of the newcomers, but neither one is close to my ballot.
Phil Cavaretta has a long career, but not enough peak value. Out of my consideration set.
Allie Reynolds Neither a long career nor a high enough peak. Out of my consideration set.
Silvio Garcia Haven't gotten a chance to look at him. Hope to do so by next week.

Off the ballot
16-20 Duffy, Walters, Dean, Sisler, Medwick
21-25 Bell, Brown, Bresnahan, Oms, Roush
26-30 Cooper, Mays, Johnson, Waddell, Leach
31-35 McGraw, Ruffing, Cravath, Schang, Keller
36-40 Elliott, Easter, Gordon, Doyle, Poles
41-45 Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr, F. Jones, Van Haltren
46-50 Rixey, Taylor, Trouppe, Wilson, Fournier
   42. Rob_Wood Posted: September 15, 2005 at 05:01 AM (#1619130)
My 1960 ballot:

1. Bobby Doerr - first on a weak ballot
2. Jake Beckley - like him more and more
3. George Van Haltren - he's my 1890s guy
4. Red Ruffing - very good pitcher
5. Earl Averill - where's the luv (pcl credit)
6. Joe Gordon - with wwii credit
7. Hal Newhouser - middle of ballot seems right
8. Bob Johnson - ahead of medwick to me
9. Tommy Bridges - great teammate of Newhouser
10. Willard Brown - little known negro star
11. Bob Elliott - modern day third baseman
12. Joe Medwick - cannot believe he's about to be elected
13. Eppa Rixey - luv the long career
14. Cupid Childs - another 1890s star
15. George Sisler - ballot-worthy tho strange career

Not on my ballot but in group top 10: Hughie Jennings - I have him in 16-20; Biz Mackey - nowhere near my ballot; Wes Ferrell - probably in 40-50; Clark Griffith - around 25.
   43. Tiboreau Posted: September 15, 2005 at 06:00 AM (#1619220)
1. sp Hal Newhouser (nc)—Even with a significant WWII discount, his peak is still in the Ferrell\Dean level of greatness, and with a little more career than either of those two. PHoM 1960
2. sp Wes Ferrell (3, 2, 5)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter. PHoM 1957
3. sp Clark Griffith (4, 5, 7)—A good balance between peak and career: his peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former. PHoM 1939
4. ss Hughie Jennings (5, 6, 8)—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprises of 74.7% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value. PHoM 1942
5. cf Hugh Duffy (6, 7, 10)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either. PHoM 1960
6. lf Joe Medwick (7, 8, 9)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as among the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
7. sp Dizzy Dean (8, 9, 11)—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! Win Shares credits Dean with the best peak among eligible pitchers, while only Wes Ferrell has a better peak according to WARP.
8. ss Dobie Moore (9, 10, 12)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
9. rf Gavy Cravath (10, 11, 13)—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
10. sp Bucky Walters (11, 12, 14)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
11. cf Alejandro Oms (12, 4, 4)—The poor man’s Paul Waner. Only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a real good peak IMO as well as a real good career (340 WS).
12. 2b Cupid Childs (13, 13, 15)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
13. sp Jose Mendez (14, 15, ob)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
14. cf Edd Roush (15, ob)—Roush nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
15. cf Earl Averill (ob)—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the ever-growing glut of solid outfield candidates. Similar in value to Boudreau & Gordon, IMO. I give Averill credit for his ’28 PCL performance.

Required Disclosures:
17. sp Eppa Rixey (ob)—Nearly 4500 IP with a 115 ERA+ puts Eppa Rixey near my ballot, but his lack of a peak just doesn’t quite cut it.
19. c Biz Mackey (ob)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang.
20. 1b George Sisler (ob)—While his peak is nice it’s not as good as I originally thought, and his marginal second-half isn’t enough combined with his peak to get him on my ballot.
25. sp Red Ruffing (ob)—Like Rixey, Ruffing had a long and valuable career but not enough of a peak to make my ballot. Questions regarding the support he received playing for the Yankees and the dichotomy between his Boston and New York careers also cloud the issue.
34. cf George Van Haltren (ob)—A long career with little peak is just not what I'm lookin' for in a HoMer. Resides in the mid-thirties with Schang, Leach, and Jimmy Ryan.
   44. SWW Posted: September 15, 2005 at 02:41 PM (#1619538)
Most of my time has been spent trying to figure out where to slot one guy. Play along at home, and see if you can guess who that is.

1960 Ballot
1)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I have looked over the stats again and again, determined to bring my thinking in line with the electorate. And try as I might, I just can’t escape the conclusion that he’s the most meritorious guy on my ballot. So I’ve decided to stop fretting about it and just accept the fact that you’re all wrong in the head. A c.v. that includes a durable, Win Share-rich career, six “All-Star” appearances, terrific black and gray ink, four World Series appearances, and clever use (and non-use) of the spitball. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his projected Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, 1952 Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
3)Harold Newhouser – “Prince Hal”
Being a voter who relies heavily on career, alarm bells go off with Newhouser. And the wartime peak doesn’t help. But his sheer dominance at his best, to say nothing of the clear contribution he made to the success of his team, makes him impossible to ignore. Looking over Kelly from SD’s comparisons from a few weeks back, Hal keeps showing up near the top of a lot of lists. After a lot of soul-searching, I’m comfortable placing him here.
4)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Medwick continues a brief run of candidates with huge primes and a rather sharp drop-off. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely, like a certain shortstop I’ll discuss later. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
And Sisler rounds out the trio of brief candles. Another tremendous high with decent career filler. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6)Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
I’m willing to accept the notion that he performed poorly with Boston because they used him so poorly. Factoring in the war years and his high totals in spite of it, I’m content to rank him this high. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.
7)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
I consider him to be the best catcher currently available for our consideration, and though his numbers are not as gaudy as Gibson or Santop, they are significantly greater than his Major League couterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
8)Howard Earl Averill
I’m going to go ahead and say I was wrong in allowing him to slip off the ballot. A startling eight times as one of the 10 best players in his league.
9)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
He drops down from his personal high on my ballot, owing to my concerns about the lack of arc in his career. But I’m sticking with my man Sam, because I recognize how remarkable his career numbers are given his late start, and because he spent so much of his career as the best everyday player on a very bad team. Check the Win Shares, and it’s consistently Walter Johnson and Sam Rice as the Senators’ best. Think if he’d gotten a re-invention like Ruffing. A great one.
10)Willard Brown
Another one of my characteristically cautious early rankings. Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot.
11)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.
12)Edd J Roush
Part of the celebrated center fielder glut. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
13)Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
My ballot should demonstrate that I’m determined not to punish players for consistency over time. That’s why he’s still hanging on to my ballot. But examining his career, I’m very disturbed by the fact that Beckley not only didn’t have any kind of a peak in his league, but that he never even stood out on his own team. He remains the one big problem child in my career-oriented voting pattern.
14)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Still hanging on until a flood of new guys comes in. Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
15)Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
Hey, look who’s back. I’m relying very heavily on Chris Cobb’s projections, which demonstrate a substantial peak. He also does well in James Vail’s standard deviation scores. The Negro League pitchers are very hard to get a handle on, and I will certainly revisit this matter again.


Other Top 10 Finishers
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
Everybody’s so worried about Medwick, and here comes Hughie. He's got an extraordinary peak, and that’s it. The most daunting statistic for me: five-year prime is over 70% of his career. Just can't do it.
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
Newhouser forced me to re-examine my placement of Ferrell. But I do feel like Newhouser is clearly better. Ferrell’s thing is that his career isn’t long enough and his peak isn’t high enough. He falls short on both counts. So he remains off my ballot.
Clark Calvin Griffith
My last re-evaluation of pitchers did put him in a better light, but not much. I actually moved Vic Willis up ahead of him. I need to spend some time looking at him in the context of his era.
   45. sunnyday2 Posted: September 15, 2005 at 03:02 PM (#1619586)
You didn't say whether you meant "most of my time" this week, or "most of my time" over a longer time. If this week, Newhouser; if longer, Grimes.
   46. Daryn Posted: September 15, 2005 at 03:11 PM (#1619596)
Someone please answer my Waddell/Newhouser question if you get a chance.

1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

2. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

3. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment. Nice to see him reaching the top 10.

4. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on. If you like Ruffing, you should like Grimes.

6. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang (who I have at 26).

8. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

9. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here, ahead of Suttles and Beckwith. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

10. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

11. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

12. Hal Newhouser – I like the two times ERA+ lead, the career 130 ERA+, the .580 winning percentage, the 47 black ink points, and, of course, two strikeout titles (plus the 1945 Triple Crown).


I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes. I understand context and wouldn't question someone who preferred Hal, but the wide gap is inexplicable to me.

13. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut.

14. Willard Brown – I see him as close to Medwick.

15. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin.

Jennings isn't close for me, Averill is in an outfield glut in my 30s and Ferrell is just off the ballot in the mid-20s.
   47. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 15, 2005 at 03:22 PM (#1619626)
As someone who isn't voting for Waddell, but whose ranking system for hurlers is, uh, idiosyncratic, Waddell doesn't fair well in comparison to his peers. My system attempts to adjust for workload and league usage patterns, and Waddell simply doesn't fair all that well.

His ERA+ sparkles and shines, but although he may not be the King of the UER, he's in the royal family and a prime courtier.

That's my answer.
   48. Chris Cobb Posted: September 15, 2005 at 03:31 PM (#1619649)
On Waddell vs. Newhouser:

Waddell overrated somewhat by ERA+ (lots of UER, low-scoring era boosts ERA+ scores imo)
Newhouser better with the stick (36 to 25 OPS+, worth a couple of points of ERA+)

Most important:

Newhouser's IP _much_ more impressive in context than Waddell's. Newhouser finished in the top 3 in his league in IP 6 seasons running, 1944-49. Waddell finished 4-3-4 in 1903-05 and 7 in 1907.

It's that IP factor that makes Newhouser a total monster during his peak and Waddell merely outstanding. There's no question that Newhouser was the best pitcher in baseball in the late 1940s. Though some might argue the point, Waddell was almost certainly not the best pitcher in baseball in the mid-1900s.

(Incidentally, Ferrell places 2-4-3-x-1-1-1 in IP in his league over his seven-year prime, better, I think, than Newhouser in terms of durability.)
   49. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: September 15, 2005 at 04:27 PM (#1619766)
Newhouser's IP _much_ more impressive in context than Waddell's.

The same point can be made about their OPS+s. Based on the info on my site about pitcher OPS+, it looks like Waddell's OPS+ was 10-15 points below average for his day, and Newhouser's was 10 points above average for a pitcher back then.

(Incidentally, Ferrell places 2-4-3-x-1-1-1 in IP in his league over his seven-year prime, better

Fun fact about Wes Ferrell - one thing I found out while looking at pitcher aging patterns I can tell you that not only did Wes Ferrell have more win shares through age 30 of any pitcher born in 1900s (decade, not century), but his lead was so big that no one caught him for 2-3 years despite the fact that he was done. Very impressive.
   50. sunnyday2 Posted: September 15, 2005 at 04:33 PM (#1619779)
George Sisler had a kick ass record through age 30.

Which one's the hot dog?
   51. SWW Posted: September 15, 2005 at 05:01 PM (#1619845)
You didn't say whether you meant "most of my time" this week, or "most of my time" over a longer time. If this week, Newhouser; if longer, Grimes.

By gum, you're absolutely right. I did mean "this week", but you have actually put your thumb on a major element of my ongoing trials as a participant in this project. Nice.

I am well and truly busted. :-)
   52. sunnyday2 Posted: September 15, 2005 at 05:19 PM (#1619885)
My pleasure!

And as a peak voter I want to heartily congratulate you on your very excellent choices for #3-4-5 on your ballot!
   53. SWW Posted: September 15, 2005 at 05:34 PM (#1619916)
And as a peak voter I want to heartily congratulate you on your very excellent choices for #3-4-5 on your ballot!

Happy to oblige. It does make me look like a peak guy, doesn't it? Although honestly, I think of myself as more of a career-with-prime guy. It's difference between Medwick and, say, Charlie Keller, whose peak is big, but then has his career cut short.

As long as Bell, Rice, and Beckley continue to hold slots on my ballot, I think I can avoid being called a peak voter. That, and I'll never have the highest consensus score.
   54. Daryn Posted: September 15, 2005 at 05:44 PM (#1619937)
It's that IP factor that makes Newhouser a total monster during his peak and Waddell merely outstanding. There's no question that Newhouser was the best pitcher in baseball in the late 1940s. Though some might argue the point, Waddell was almost certainly not the best pitcher in baseball in the mid-1900s.

This is a great answer, as were the other responses, for why you would put Newhouser over Waddell, but I don't understand why the "total monster" will be on 40+ ballots and at the top of many while the "merely outstanding pitcher" won't make 10.
   55. sunnyday2 Posted: September 15, 2005 at 05:52 PM (#1619962)
That timeline thingy? Or the SNT?
   56. Mike Webber Posted: September 15, 2005 at 07:07 PM (#1620151)
I use Win Shares, career first, bonus for peak, and try to balance out the positions a little which occasionally gets me into trouble.

1)EDD ROUSH – There goes my consensus score! 314 win shares, with a couple of missing seasons. Of all the tightly bunched outfield candidates, I think he is a whisper ahead.
2)JOE MEDWICK – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified
3)EARL AVERILL – The PCL credit makes his total career value about the same as Roush and Medwick, so I break the tie with big seasons. I’d say Roush and Medwick’s big seasons were just a little bit bigger.
4)HAL NEWHOUSER – I’m sure we all do this, dump the guys in a spreadsheet make up formulas and spit out results to help us rank the players correctly. Newhouser keeps popping out on the top of those lists among the 20th century pitchers for me. Only a shiny new toy discount keeps him below Averill.
5)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified.
6)COOL PAPA BELL – I am going to put my faith in the legend.
7)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list, I am going to put him ahead of Mays, because his peak numbers are more unique a decade after Mays.
8)CARL MAYS –I think his peak places him ahead of Ruffing and Rixey, even if he trails the pair by 60 to 75 total win shares.
9)HUGHIE JENNINGS – In 1901 with the Phillies he hit one homer, tied for 3rd on the team!
10)RED RUFFING – About the same as Rixey, however I think his weak peak is more the norm for his era than Rixey.
11)ROGER BRESNAHAN –Best catcher between Ewing and Hartnett. Moved him down as his big season in centerfield had been causing me to view his peak as too high.
12)BOBBY DOERR – War credit penalty may not be docking him enough.
13)RUBE WADDELL – Another big peak pitcher, though maybe it should be his teammate Vic Willis based on recent discussion. Chris J?
14)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Huge career value.
15)GEORGE SISLER – Three straight George’s to round out my ballot. Has a solid career value, and good peak.

16-30 Sewell, Gordon, Berger, Dean, Traynor, Elliot, Warneke, Lazzeri, H. Wilson, Schang, Redding, Duffy, Doyle, W. Cooper, Mendez, Moore

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang, Rixey 46th – I like the pitchers with big peaks better. Griffith – 40th.
   57. Chris Cobb Posted: September 15, 2005 at 07:19 PM (#1620169)
This is a great answer, as were the other responses, for why you would put Newhouser over Waddell, but I don't understand why the "total monster" will be on 40+ ballots and at the top of many while the "merely outstanding pitcher" won't make 10.

Well, it's possible that Waddell is being underrated by the electorate right now, but with so many good candidates, small differences will often separate candidates by 10 or more ballot spots.

Right now, I have Newhouser at 1 and Waddell at 20, with Ferrell and Mendez between them among the peak pitcher candidates. I expect Waddell will make it on to my ballot sometime in the next ten years, possibly to stay.
   58. Dolf Lucky Posted: September 15, 2005 at 07:30 PM (#1620199)
1 (-)Hal Newhouser--Best peak on the board. Some pretty huge seasons (quality + quantity) in the mid-40's

2 (3)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

3 (4)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

4 (5)Red Ruffing--Hey, I can't use that slick "pretty clearly the best pure pitcher available" comment anymore. Maybe next year. 3 pitchers in the top 4 of my ballot hasn't happened since the 1900 ballot. Maybe we should elect one or two?

5 (-)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

6 (7)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

7 (6)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

8 (8)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

9 (11)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

10 (9)Chuck Klein--Much better peak than anyone in the OF glut. Plus he was dominant in Earl Weaver Baseball.

11 (10)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

12 (13)Dom DiMaggio--Build in some "appropriate" war credit, and he has the same career value as Boudreau. Limited peak, as he was amazingly consistent.

13 (12)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

14 (14)Joe Gordon--One of the great 'what-if' stories. I give him credit for his war years, but my suspicion is that if there was no war, he'd have been close to a no-brainer.

15 (15)Willard Brown--I've grown attached to the idea of him being somewhere between Medwick and Averill.

Top 10 omissions:

Oy vey, there's 5 of 'em. Rixey lacks the requisite peak to find the ballot; Mackey has been lapped by better and more deserving catchers; likewise Jennings to some extent although the peak still scores very high; Averill is indistinguishable from a rather large OF glut; and Griffith used to sneak on my ballot 20-some years ago, but there've been too many pitchers that have come on since with better or similar numbers.
   59. TomH Posted: September 15, 2005 at 07:43 PM (#1620239)
On Waddell / Newhouser / others: Yes, the difference in IP is large enough to make Prince Hal a #1 and Rube a 25ish. Newhouser, adjusting for context, has about a 500 to 60 career IP "lead" over Rube.

The real question is why Waddell over Griffith? Griffith has 15 more WARP1. This is in spite of the fact that Griffith was demonstrably worth many more WINS to his team than he was "runs". They were contemps, altho Clark pitched more in the one-league 1890s.

To me the only way to put Rube above Griffith is to blindly use ERA or ERA+, without accouting for Rube's higher rate of unearned runs. And I am no enemy of Waddell.
   60. Chris Cobb Posted: September 15, 2005 at 07:51 PM (#1620268)
Thanks, Tom, for speaking up for Griffith!

I left him out of my list only because I don't number him among the "peak candidate" pitchers -- he's a combo of career and peak for me, and he's between Newhouser and Ferrell in my rankings, which means he will probably be in an elect-me spot.
   61. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: September 15, 2005 at 08:18 PM (#1620362)
This is a great answer, as were the other responses, for why you would put Newhouser over Waddell, but I don't understand why the "total monster" will be on 40+ ballots and at the top of many while the "merely outstanding pitcher" won't make 10.

It's that tight a ballot. Speaking for myself, there's about 25-30 guys I'd like to have on it. But there's only 15 slots.

Waddell may be getting underrated, though. What I mean is he's a candidate in that great grey spot of is-he-good-enough? for us and some of the research that's come out about him (certainly the most discussed info on him) hurts his candidacy (the UER). I don't think he is being underrated, because other positive info (RSIs, for example) have come out to help him. What hurts him is that the stat that best helps his career (ERA+) clearly overrates him. He wasn't a superlative workhorse for his era, didn't quite last long-enough to get in as a career-ist, couldn't hit that well . . . ERA+ is what would push him over the top, but it don't, so he falls back into the trenches.

13)RUBE WADDELL – Another big peak pitcher, though maybe it should be his teammate Vic Willis based on recent discussion. Chris J?

Huh? I'd be more than willing to help (time permitting), but I have no idea if you're asking for info on Waddell or Willis or comparing the two, or whatever. If you can clarify I can try to do some work on them by the '61 election.
   62. andrew siegel Posted: September 16, 2005 at 04:30 AM (#1621585)
I'm finishing an article and pressed for time, so here's a ballot short on comments (but not on thought):

(1) Jennings-- Put him up against Newhouser season by season in season-lenth adjusted WS or WARP and notice what it is like to be one level better than great.

(2) Newhouser-- Ed Walsh minus a war discount and I have Walsh in the top 20 pitchers of all-time.

(3) Van Haltren--Love all the little plusses.

(4) Dobie Moore--Not quite Hughie, but who is?

(5) Averill--Loved the study of OF/1B from earlier this week that showed how well he combines peak, prime, and career.

(6) Ferrell--Comparison to other short-career pitchers shows me that he is clearly on the good side of the line.

(7) Rixey--The GVH of pitchers.

(8) Childs--Looks an awful lot like Gordon and Doerr, but the gaps are very small once you get beyond the first six or seven on this ballot.

(9) Duffy--I lean towards WS's assessment of him.

(10) Oms--Linked to Duffy for now, but might be better.

(11) Ruffing--Rixey minus a slight discount b/c/ of skepticism regarding whether systems sufficiently discount for the quality of his teams.

(12) Sisler--Also benefits from that nice study; have to think his defense had some value.

(13) Medwick--Will eventually go PHOM, so no big deal if he get into the HoM this year even though I prefer others.

(14) Ryan--Glad to have rescucitated him.

(15) Roush--Like his many owners and fans, I get to say "Welcome back" to Edd.

Mackey is 17th and due for reevaluation. Griffith is 29th; he was great but didn't pitch enough innings for his time.

Of the newbies, Newhouser is #2; Pesky doesn't make my 70ish player consideration set but is likely in the top 100; the rest didn't even register a glance.
   63. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 16, 2005 at 01:41 PM (#1621835)
1960 Ballot:

1) Hal Newhouser
The only pitcher on the ballot with over 1000 all-time adjusted PRAR. 60.8 WARP3 and 157 WS in his best five seasons. He’s one notch below Hubbell in my rankings of eligible-to-date pitchers.

2) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (103.3 WARP3, 992 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

3) Bucky Walters
89.6 WARP3, 251 WS. An excellent, underrated pitcher. Similar numbers to Ferrell, but with slightly less peak and more career.

4) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” Even if he was only the third best 1B of the Negro Leagues, he deserves to join the HoM.

5) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

6) Jose Mendez
Possibly better than Redding.

7) Dizzy Trout
87.4 WARP3, 228 WS, Top 5 PRAA/PRAR: 152/447. Here’s a guy where it seems like the war discount you use will greatly affect his placement. I’m ok with the BP discounts, so he comes out high on my ballot.

8) Dutch Leonard
91.9 WARP3, 233 WS. This guy racked up a surprising amount of career value. 956 all-time PRAR ranks third only to Ruffing and Newhouser.

9) Joe Medwick
He’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible player. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

10) George Van Haltren
Clearly HoM-worthy by Win Shares, borderline at best by WARP3…I’ve got him somewhere in-between.

11) Bobby Doerr
With Herman and Boudreau inducted, Doerr moves to the top of the middle infielder heap. In the reverse of the GVH case, Win Shares don’t favor him as much as WARP3.

12) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories made him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor keeps him on the ballot.

13) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Of eligible pitchers, his 5-year PRAR (457) is 3rd only to Dean and Newhouser.

14) Willard Brown
As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

15) Eppa Rixey—WARP1 favors Ruffing by 15% before it makes the timeline adjustment. Win Shares shows them as having almost identical career, rate and peak stats. I consider their war-time absences to be a wash. Incorporating any degree of timeline that deflates Rixey more than Ruffing and Red stands out as the better of the two by either uber-stat.
------------------------------------------
The Rest of the Top 50

16) Bobo Newsom—Low peak and a meager OPS+, but some decent career value nonetheless. 81.9 WARP3, 237 WS, 939 PRAR.
17) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 44.3 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
18) Dizzy Dean—493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. Not much beyond the peak, sort of the anti-Rixey.
19) Pete Browning
20) Earl Averill—Solid, consistent major league performer: averaged about 27 WS/year for his 10 full seasons in the majors, never below 22 or above 33 during that span.
21) Spot Poles
22) Alejandro Oms
23) Joe Gordon—Not quite on the Herman/Boudreau/Doerr level.
24) Bill Monroe
25) Rube Waddell
26) Lon Warneke
27) Jimmy Ryan
28) Charlie Keller
29) Leon Day—Newest NeL pitcher to make the not-quite-ballotworthy party.
30) Dick Lundy
31) Tommy Bridges
32) Dave Barnhill
33) Urban Shocker
34) Clark Griffith
35) Mel Harder
36) Paul Derringer
37) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty ever(?)
38) Dominic DiMaggio
39) Ed Ciccotte
40) Dobie Moore
41) Tommy Leach
42) Jack Quinn
43) Ray Dandridge
44) Vic Willis
45) Harry Hooper
46) Jim McCormick
47) Bob Johnson
48) Hughie Jennings—57.2 WARP3, 150 WS in top 5 years! (Too bad that makes up 82% and 70% of his career value, respectively.)
49) Ed Roush
50) Waite Hoyt


55) Biz Mackey—Highest ranked catcher on my list. I’m just not impressed enough by his batting to get him much closer to the ballot.
56) George Sisler—The good part of his career didn’t last long enough for me to rank him higher.
   64. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 16, 2005 at 02:35 PM (#1621895)
1960 ballot
Hal Newhouser and Joe Medwick mak emy PHOM. The next three in my PHOM backlog are now Ted Lyons, Hugh Duffy, and Dick Redding. Subject to change of course.

1. Hughie Jennings (3, PHOM 1938) - On a balot without a no brainer I will go for the guy who, at his best, was as good as Musial, Mays, etc.

2. Hal Newhouser (x, PHOM 1960) - He had a GREAT peak in the late forties, pitching a ton of innings and pitching lights out. Only a war discount keeps him at #2.

3. Wes Ferrell (4, PHOM 1955) - He had a very nice peak with some eyars around it. He pitched a lot of innings in his prime and provided league average offense from the pitcher position.

4. Cupid Childs (5, PHOM 1939) - Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion. He had a very nice peak, played most of his career in a strong league and had decent career length for someone at his position in the rough and tumble 1890's.

5. Joe Medwick (6, PHOM 1960) - There has been a lot of consternation on his probable electio in teh next few yers or so. I still see him as having the biggest three year peak of any corner OFer and he has over 300 career WS when adjusted to a 162 game schedule. There have to be borderline candidates somewhere right?

6a. Ted Lyons
6. Hugh Duffy (7) - 2nd in my PHOM backlog, he vaults ot the top of the 1890's CF glut due to his superior peak. He has some very big 5 and 7 year WS totals when schedule adjusted.

7. Dick Redding (8) - It has been about a decade since REdding was this high and I must say it is good to see him up here again. 2nd best NeL pitcher of the Dead Ball era, probably one of the 5 best of all-time.

8. Charlie Keller (9) - He was a monster during the fourties putting up multiple MVP caliber seasons. With two full yeras of war credit, I think he will rank above the likes of Kiner.

9. Bucky Walters (10) - Yet another peak pitcher makes my ballot. His peak isn't as high as Dean's but he isn't far off. He also provided value outside of that peak and wasn't an embarrassment at the plate.

10. Earl Averill (11) - It is close between he and Keller. His 10 year prime is very impressive, though he never really was a great player.

11. Dobie Moore (12) - The Black Jennings. His peak wasn't qutie as high as EE-Yah's though.

12. Clark Griffith (13) - I used ot have him in my top five, but I have reconsidered. He still has a sparkling 3.99 DERA and was the fourth best pitcher of the 1890's.

13. Eppa Rixey (14) - Looking at there MLB numbers I just happen to think that Rixey is teh better candidate than Ruffing. With war credit, he pushes onto the ballot. Pitched a lot of innigns in his career and pitched them well.

14. Quincy Trouppe (NR) - Trouppe pushes onto my ballot because of his peak. I lower my threshhold 20% to account for the fact tha catchers cant' catch everyday. Those that do, and from what I hear Trouppe nearly did, get a huge boost in my system. That I prefer Trouppe to Mackey should out me as a peak voter once and for all.

15. Joe Gordon (15) - His peak wasn't as high as I had figured it would be. But he stills makes my ballot in a backlog year, very nice prime and he deserves war credit as well.
   65. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 16, 2005 at 02:43 PM (#1621907)
16-20 Doerr, Browning, Dean, GVH, Sisler
21-25 Elliot, Oms, Waddell, Bresnahan, Berger
26-30 Mendez, Cravath, W. Brown, Willis, Mackey
31-35 Roush, Veach, Lundy, Bell, Monroe
36-40 Ruffing, Doyle, Sewell, Shocker, B. Johnson
41-45 Leach, R. Thomas, McGraw, Scales, Wilson
46-50 Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Burns, Taylor

None of the other newbies make my ballot, the closest is probably Leon Day, but I can't really say he was better than Smith, Winters, etc.

Required disclosures

30. Mackey - I am not really agaisnt his induction and he may one day make my ballot. But his lack of a peak troubles me.

40. Ruffing - I don't really see anything special here, Ruffing would be teh candidate I disgaree with most (should he be elected in the near future) since my first ballot in 1935.
   66. Brad G Posted: September 16, 2005 at 03:48 PM (#1622013)
1960 Ballot:

1.Joe Medwick- Career OPS+ = 134, tons of Ink, the one truly great year was enough to boost his peak/prime numbers above his peers.

2.Earl Averil- Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

3.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

4.Hal Newhouser- His prime wasn’t just limited to the war years. Best AL pitcher 1945-48?

5.Bobby Doerr- Career WARP3 = 98.9, Excellent defensive player.

6.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

7.Edd Roush- No matter what system I use, it always trends toward CFs. Roush put up some strong numbers, but probably not enough to get him in anytime soon.

8.Tommy Leach- A big benefactor in my latest ratings system… particularly helped by his outstanding defensive rating.

9.Hughie Jennings- Not the longest career, but a super peak and an A+ defender at SS.

10.Cupid Childs- Questionable whether he was better than Gordon, but I don’t think he was quite at Doerr’s level.

11.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941. And he only had 6 toes!

12.Jimmy Ryan- Lest anyone refer to him as a “lost cause”, Ryan still shows prominently in my rankings.

13.Joe Sewell- Yet another nice-hitting, very good defensive SS.

14.Cool Papa Bell- The subjective accounts favor Cool Papa. Probably one of the fastest players ever. I like that he’s gaining support here.

15.Joe Gordon- Sneaks back into the top 15. Excellent fielding 2B. Probably the best 2B of the 1940’s

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

16.Bob Elliott
17.Willard Brown
18.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Not only could he hit (1920 and 1922 being his standout years), but he had speed too, leading the league in SBs four times. Pretty good pitcher as well.
19.Larry Doyle
20.Bucky Walters- WS3 = 102, Black Ink = 48, Gray Ink = 152.

Biz Mackey, the best of the eligible Catchers, ranks #25 on my list.
Wes Ferrell is slightly higher at #23.
Clark Griffith and Eppa Rixey are #36 and #37, respectively. Admittedly, both had nice careers, but I can’t see them in the Hall.

Thanks!
   67. Gadfly Posted: September 16, 2005 at 05:33 PM (#1622172)
1960 BALLOT (GADFLY)

1. Gavy Cravath
2. Willard Brown
3. Luke Easter
4. Dick Redding
5. Cool Papa Bell
6. Alejandro Oms
7. Charley Jones
8. Biz Mackey
9. Rube Waddell
10. Hugh Duffy
11. Ben Taylor
12. Hughie Jennings
13. Edd Roush
14. Charlie Keller
15. Joe Gordon
   68. Al Peterson Posted: September 16, 2005 at 05:39 PM (#1622188)
1960 ballot. Where have all the years gone? It seems like yesterday we were debating Ross Barnes…

1. Hal Newhouser (-). Had a six year run (44-49) where he was no lower than 3rd in AL in innings pitched. During those same years his league standing in ERA+ comes out 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 8. Unless WWII was 6 years long that is mighty impressive.

2. Joe Medwick (3). I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

3. Earl Averill (4). Highly productive for a centerfielder, he started ML career late after playing semi-pro in Washington state and then three years in the PCL. By comparison to Bob Johnson, Averill had teams which outperformed Pythag W-L by 18 games (1929-39).

4. Clark Griffith (5). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

5. Bob Johnson (6). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

6. Dick Redding (7). Pitched in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

7. Bobby Doerr (8). Herman’s election now gives a comp in the HOM.

8. Red Ruffing (9). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey is right around here also but a little lower.

9. Jimmy Ryan (10). Quality OF for extended time period.

10. Hughie Jennings (11). Best in baseball for a few years in the 1890s. Rough time to try and get a long career going. Especially when you have a particular skill of getting hit with a beanball.

11. Pete Browning (12). Born hitter, also born with numerous other problems which drag his stock down.

12. Biz Mackey (13). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

13. Eppa Rixey (14).
A nod to tilting my ballot toward pitchers a bit more.

14. Cool Papa Bell (15). I’m going to throw in another outfielder. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

15. George Van Haltren (16). The eternal companion to Jimmy Ryan makes an appearance.

16-20: Roush, Berger, Chance, Mullane, McGraw
21-25: Waddell, Dobie Moore, Poles, Leach, Easter
26-30: Childs, Byrd, F. Jones, Cicotte, Duffy
31-35: Sewell, D. Leonard, Bridges, Mendez, Trout
36-40: Veach, Lundy, Roy Thomas, Willard Brown, Grimes
41-45: Hack Wilson, Ben Taylor, Bob Elliot, Ferrell, Gordon
46-50: Sisler, C. Mays, Trouppe, Beckley, Cuyler

Top Returnees: Ferrell hangs in the top 50 but I’m still not seduced by the hitting/pitching combo.

New guys: Pesky’s hope for a ballot spot would be All-Star performances during the war years which wasn’t meant to be.
   69. TomH Posted: September 16, 2005 at 05:56 PM (#1622237)
Gadfly, could you give us a quick "I considered these guys but they didn't make my ballot" re: our top 10 returnees, to make sure we know you merely didn't overlook someone that many other voters felt was worthy--
Joe Medwick, Red Ruffing, Wes Ferrell, Earl Averill, Eppa Rixey, Clark Griffith
   70. sunnyday2 Posted: September 16, 2005 at 06:16 PM (#1622279)
Actually our Constitution also requires some commentary as to why we voted the way we did.
   71. Gadfly Posted: September 16, 2005 at 06:33 PM (#1622324)
I vote by my own Win Shares formula (career total plus top 5 seasons times 3). Basically, this formula weights peak slightly more than career because peak wins pennants while career consisits of much replacable bulk.

My list is different from others because I give credit for whole professional careers, not just the Major League portion (i.e. if the player was a Major League caliber player and was playing professionally, they get credit). For Instance, Gavy Cravath was a Major League caliber player from 1904 to 1922.

I also make allowances for some things such as:
careers warped by discrimination, the effects of one league 1892-1900, military service, reserve clause discrimination, pitching before 1893, etc.

In any case, Joe Gordon is my number 15 and his score in my system is 796.

The others mentioned by Tom H-
788 Clark Griffith (he would be #16)
782 Joe Medwick (18)
763 Earl Averill (20)
   72. Gadfly Posted: September 16, 2005 at 06:45 PM (#1622359)
Whoops. Hit submit by accident.

717 Red Ruffing
705 Eppa Rixey
677 Wes Ferrell

Of course, the one indusputable thing about my list is this: I believe that the conversion factors used to convert Negro and Minor League careers into Major League Equivalents are too low and discriminate against players who spent their careers in the Negro Leagues and/or part of their careers in the Minors.

For this reason, my list is top heavy with guys who fit these criteria.

Anyone interested in a more complete explanation can just read the Cravath thread.
   73. sunnyday2 Posted: September 16, 2005 at 07:25 PM (#1622451)
Gad, if you looked at more of the long career MiLers using those higher conversions, I wonder if Ike Boone, Buzz Arlett, Joe Hauser et al might not make your ballot?
   74. TomH Posted: September 16, 2005 at 07:37 PM (#1622475)
Gad, thanks. While I have a diffeent opinion on NegL conversions, it certainly could be me who is incorrect.

I do hope there is some correction for pitchers as conditions change and they have a harder time racking up Win Shares. For example, Greg Maddux's ##s through 1999 (272 career win shares, top 5 seasons approx 30-27-26-25-24) would put him well short of your ballot.
   75. Gadfly Posted: September 16, 2005 at 08:06 PM (#1622531)
73. Sunnyday-

Buzz Arlett falls just short under my syste (mostly because of career length) which feels about right to me. He scores very similar to Earl Averill, but I'd rather have Averill. I haven't tried to do conversions for Boone or Hauser but assume that they would not score as high as Arlett (though both might actually have higher peaks).

74. Tom H-

I think we discussed this before somewhere, but I agree with you and basically believe that Win Shares over-credits pitchers before 1920 (and especially 1893) and under-credits modern day pitchers. In other words, Win Shares credits olden-day pitchers with much value that is really just defense and credits modern day defenses with much credit that should be the pitchers.

When the Clemens/Maddux generation comes up, I will surely make some adjustment. I did not note it above, but I already make a large adjustment for catchers (multiplying their career and peak by 1.25). Despite the adjustment, Lombardi still doesn't rate much but Bresnahan is my No. 17.

One guy I haven't done anything with yet is Quincy Trouppe but I have a feeling that he will be very close to Biz Mackey.
   76. Gadfly Posted: September 16, 2005 at 08:29 PM (#1622578)
Two other random points:

1) Hauser would be very hard to do an accurate MLE for because of park effects. If I remember correctly, he hit 69 home runs one year in the AAA International League: 50 at home and 19 on the road.

2) At the conclusion of the 2004 season, Greg Maddux had 359 career Win Shares with a best five of 30-27-26-26-25. But adjusting for the strike of 1994-1995 makes that 37-34-27-26-25. Under my system, Maddux would score an 806 and be on my list, somewhere around 11 or 12.

However, I do think that's too low and Maddux should be in the top 10 and probably right around Redding at number 5. Of course, this is without the additional value Maddux will accrue before he actually retires. And if anyone can tell me why Maddux gets one win share for 1986 and just one for 1987, I'd be very interested.

Maddux:
1986 31 innings, 2-4 record, 5.52 ERA
1987 155 innings, 6-14 record, 5.61 ERA

There's something messed up there.

Greg Maddux career WS (1986-2004)
01-01-20-20-15-17-27-25-26-30-23-26-25-17-24-20-19-11-12=359
   77. jimd Posted: September 16, 2005 at 09:26 PM (#1622727)
And if anyone can tell me why Maddux gets one win share for 1986 and just one for 1987, I'd be very interested.

Maddux:
1986 31 innings, 2-4 record, 5.52 ERA
1987 155 innings, 6-14 record, 5.61 ERA

There's something messed up there.


The fractional Win Shares from the supplementary e-book:

1986 0.6 PWS
1987 1.6 PWS

The rest is round-off. The 1.6 rounds down instead of up because rounding it up would screw up his team's total for that year. Sometimes the reverse happens and .4 rounds up because the team has an extra win-share left. Those things usually even out over a career.
   78. Gadfly Posted: September 16, 2005 at 09:32 PM (#1622743)
One of the interesting things about my system to me is that it ranks Hall of Fame candidates like an old school grading system:

Over 1000: Slam Dunk Hall of Famers
900-1000: Grade A Hall of Famers
800-900: Grade B Hall of Famers
700-800: Grade C Hall of Famers
600-700: Grade D Hall of Famers
under 600: Not in this Lifetime.

Of course, there are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame who are Grade C, even Grade D, Hall of Famers (Lomberdi, for instance). Joe Gordon, my number 15 guy, rates as a C+, almost B-, HOF candidate and that seems to me to fit him pretty well.

Hughie ('whatta peak') Jennings comes in at B- and Clark Griiffith is a solid C+ and these ratings seem just about right to me too. Most of the backlog in the Hall of Merit scores as Grade C Hall of Famers.

However, Greg Maddux only scoring an 806, or a B- grade, seems intuitively wrong. Maddux, in my opinion, should already be a Grade A or even a slam dunk Hall of Famer (Great peak + career).

Of course, the great change in modern day pitching has been the change to the five man rotation. Modern pitchers throw less innings but throw much more difficult and harder innings (which co-relates to the enormous rise in SO rates). I don't think Win Shares compensates for this at all.

One way to compensate for this would be to increase the Win Shares by 1.25 for modern day ptichers as I do for catchers throughout Baseball history (this makes some sense since 5 divided by 4 is 1.25). But, on the other hand, perhaps 1.25 is too great an increase. Perhaps the square root (1.118) or half (1.125) should be used.

In any case:
Maddux: Best 5=149, career=359.
1.250 (186-449)=1007 (Slam Dunk)
1.125 (168-404)=908 (Grade A-)

Intuitively, the first ranking (just into Slam Dunk) seems right.

That would make Maddux, along with Cravath and Willard Brown, one of my three slam dunk Hall of Famers.
   79. Gadfly Posted: September 16, 2005 at 09:48 PM (#1622775)
One other thing I like about my system is that it keeps you from falling for the shiny new toy syndrome:

Hal Newhouser 722, Grade C- Hall of Famer.
Just about the same as Wes Ferrell, better than Dizzy Dean.

Great peak peak from 1944-46, very good six year peak 1944-1949, but not really enough career.

But, on the other hand, I could probably be convinced that I have all pitchers from 1920 on underrated. Great pitchers are simply rarer than great hitters and have much more trouble retaining their value for long careers.

However, when the money is on the table, I'd rather have an ace pitcher than a great hitter. Bonds can be walked and the bat taken out of his hands in a pinch, but great pitchers (Johnson, Martinez, Schilling, etc.) cannot be stopped from pitching.

I could see Newhouser as a grade C+ or B- Hall of Famer, now that I think about it.

Anyways, it is something to think about.
   80. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 16, 2005 at 11:55 PM (#1623014)
1960 ballot:

1. Red Ruffing: I’ve been wondering for several years if he’ll be doomed by the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams. Not doomed, but it’s touch and go. Career stats obviously aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. Being an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners is a positive in my book. (PHOM 1956)

2. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. Even if the 400+ win shares get reduced to ~350, he’s well ahead of any “glut”. 76th on James’s top 100 of all time, #3 NeL CF. (PHOM 1957)

3. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

4. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

5. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (PHOM 1958)

6. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

7. Bobby Doerr: Likewise 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4.

8. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

9. Hal Newhouser: Better peak candidate than Mays, less career than those ahead of him. 3 straight STATS Retro-Cys! Wait -- discounting 10% for WW2, only 2.8. :-)

10. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, career edge over Ferrell, pretty good hitter.

11. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Earl, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood.

12. Clark Griffith: Moves on & off ballot as the crowd thins or thickens. PHOM 1945.

13. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. PHOM 1929.

14. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson). 3 votes for balance on this ballot.

15. Dick Redding: Looking everybody over, this is the guy I like best for 15th. Wow. 7 pitchers on my ballot. Some of them aren’t the “right” ones, though. Guess I’m a Friend Of Pitchers, but can’t say I like the acronym.

Required disclosures:
Wes Ferrell: Impressive peak and a lot of value in a relatively short career. He’s very close.
Earl Averill: Topnotch OF for most of his career. Also very close.
Hughie Jennings: Impressive peak, but not much else. He’s not close.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940).
   81. Paul Wendt Posted: September 17, 2005 at 12:18 AM (#1623082)
Gadfly schrieb:
Of course, the great change in modern day pitching has been the change to the five man rotation. Modern pitchers throw less innings but throw much more difficult and harder innings (which co-relates to the enormous rise in SO rates). I don't think Win Shares compensates for this at all.

One way to compensate for this would be to increase the Win Shares by 1.25 for modern day ptichers as I do for catchers throughout Baseball history (this makes some sense since 5 divided by 4 is 1.25). But, on the other hand, perhaps 1.25 is too great an increase. Perhaps the square root (1.118) or half (1.125) should be used.


Since 1893, the change has been gradual so the adjustment should be continuous or nearly so.

Someone's (OCF?) index of ace pitcher workload is essentially the Nth greatest number of innings pitched where N is the number of MLB teams. So 16th-high innings pitched, each year 1901-1960. A smooth version of that statistic (such as 9-year moving average), normalized to the number of games scheduled, is a reasonable basis for the adjustment Gadfly evidently seeks.
   82. Howie Menckel Posted: September 17, 2005 at 04:42 PM (#1624308)
1960 ballot, our 63rd
Will we, too, have dead people from Chicago voting early and often? ;)

Recent discussions have further convinced me that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I like to think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. HAL NEWHOUSER - Maybe a 'weaker' No. 1 than some would have him, but I like him better than Ed Walsh. I see no reason to believe he would not have sliced and diced all comers in '44 and '45. Would be intriguing to see career stats of Hal vs Cronin, Dickey, Appling, DiMaggio, and Boudreau.
2. EPPA RIXEY - Nearly his best friend. Matches Ruffing in top 3-4 years except for hitting credit; then slowly but surely maintains an advantage throughout straight-up comparisons. A little WW I credit as well. Am comfortable putting Eppa in an 'elect me' slot.

3. JAKE BECKLEY - His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Amazing. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelecteds from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted.
4. GEORGE SISLER - The comparison with Medwick in the ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument that his best season was better than George's, but it's debatable and too many voters are using other systems that work against Sisler. Guess I'm a contrarian here.
5. CLARK GRIFFITH - Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
6. RED RUFFING - Have warmed up a bit. A little WW II credit helps, and he really racked up the innings.
7. CUPID CHILDS - I discount the crap out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven 120 OPS+s here. A full-length career for this brutal era is darn impressive.
8. PETE BROWNING - Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Would be No. 1 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
9. WES FERRELL - Close call, but the mighty bat and the high volume of innings in peak years gets it done. Not Newhouser-esque, though.
10. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of career shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that.
11. BOB ELLIOTT - Slots in right where I had Hack; I guess others won't do the same. Seven seasons with 123 or better OPS+ as a 3B, ok two are war discount. 124 OPS+ in 8190 PA, mostly as a 3B. Would move up if Ps weren't so underrepresented.
12. COOL PAPA BELL - Allowing for park and steals leading him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd be in the HOM a decade ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
13. JOE MEDWICK - Helped a little by the review. Very nice 5, 8 10-year numbers.
14. EARL AVERILL - First vote from me in many years; I think most OF fielding can be overrated, but he's one who really does deserve extra credit. Maybe best case yet for minor-league credit.
15. HUGHIE JENNINGS - 13th two yrs ago, off ballot last year. I've voted for him dozens of times, but fresh look hurts him. Fifth year is only OK, sixth year worthless and seventh year worse than that.

OTHERS CONSIDERED CLOSELY
JOSE MENDEZ - Guessing that the Reuschel comparison doesn't do him justice; the Hershiser one might. Hitting credit, but I wish he had pitched more documented innings. Tiny positional bonus gets him on.
MICKEY WELCH - May finally be wearing out on him, as he drops off the ballot. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance wasn't there.
RUBE WADDELL -Finally back on my radar based on astounding four-year ERA+s (179-79-65-53), but was the anti-Griffith. HOM-quality stuff, but unearned run totals suggest a guy who unraveled easily.
BOBBY DOERR - Full-length career, too, but I have a huge problem with his only great year being a war one. Noses Gordon only on fielding; anyone claim Gordon could pick it like Doerr?
JOE GORDON - Was 14th two yrs ago. A bit underrated, another with seven years of 120 OPS+ if you give him one for the war.
ALEJANDRO OMS - I refer to him as a 'Bernie Williams' in his thread. I love his ability to match or outhit several HOMers in competition together, so ability is there. A little leery on career length, so for now he's here.
LEON DAY - Not consistent enough by any stretch of the imagination, and Negro Leagues upheavals and WW II didn't help, either. Not enough.

OTHER TOP 10 RETURNEE
BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread - Sisler, one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career; McGuire, played forever as a C but not always that often, or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others.

Next year's 'closer look' candidate: Gavy Cravath.
   83. DavidFoss Posted: September 17, 2005 at 10:48 PM (#1624866)
The Pale Hose took advantage of a rare off year in the Bronx and the Dodgers took advantage of parity (and mismanagement in Milwaukee) to sneak in a pennant with a weak record. Dodgers in six.

Trying something new this year -- ranking a second fifteen. The project is gradually transitioning towards electing more backlog members and the length of time that the backlog is covering is so enormous that I really needed to expand my rankings. Comments welcome.

1960 Ballot

1. Hughie Jennings (3) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago. Imagine Boudreau with 3-4 more 1948's.
2. Hal Newhouser (ne) -- I'm convinced. A real workhouse for most of the 1940s with one of his out-of-this-world seasons being after the war.
3. Clark Griffith (4) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
4. Larry Doyle (5) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning, but still has a core group of followers. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
5. Cupid Childs (6) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
6. Biz Mackey (7) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
7. John McGraw (8) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
8. Dick Redding (9) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
9. Wes Ferrell (10) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
10. Gavvy Cravath (11) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
11. Joe Gordon (12) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
12. Charley Jones (13) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
13. George Sisler (14) -- Welcome back Jorge! Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
14. Roger Bresnahan (15) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
15. Earl Averill (nr) -- Hard guy to judge. Solid ten year prime, but not much else. The best white CF between Cobb/Speaker & Dimaggio, but I don't feel he has the dominance that a short-career outfielder should. Credit for an extra PCL season helps. Returning to the ballot which is a credit to him as I tend to be tough on non-shoo-in outfielders

16-20. Sewell, BElliott, BJohnson, Ruffing, Medwick,
21-25. Doerr, Rixey, Chance, Lombardi, Beckley,
26-30. WBrown, Browning, Leach, Welch, Moore
   84. Brent Posted: September 18, 2005 at 05:28 AM (#1625381)
1960 Ballot:

As another excellent pitcher arrives, my ballot is getting top heavy with pitchers (8 of my top 15 and all of my top 3). It’s time to elect some pitchers!

This week I decided that my evaluation system had been undervaluing the pre-1920 pitchers. After making some adjustments, Griffith and Welch return to my ballot for the first time in many elections. My personal hall of merit inductees this year are Newhouser and Griffith.

If I could, I’d vote for 32 players this year.

1. Hal Newhouser –
Over 7 seasons (1942, 1944-49) he averaged 21-12, 3.7 wins above team, 279 IP, 144 DERA+, and 177 SO. Even with a war discount that’s one of the best pitcher peaks in baseball history. One of the most underappreciated pitchers in baseball history. (PHoM 1960)

2. Wes Ferrell –
Over 8 seasons (1929-36) he averaged 20-12, 4.6 wins above team, 264 IP, 127 DERA+, 104 OPS+. When you account for the hitting, that’s not too far behind Prince Hal. Even more underappreciated than Newhouser. (PHoM 1944)

3. Clark Griffith –
Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 127 DERA+. Although his IP average is a little low for a period when top pitchers typically pitched 350 innings, I’ve decided that I can no longer deny that he is HoM-worthy. (PHoM 1960)

4. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL and an A+ center fielder. Counting 1928, 10 seasons with 24+ WS. (PHoM 1957)

5. Dizzy Dean –
Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 131 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB, MVP for 1934 (placing 2nd in ’35 and ’36). Maybe I’m blind, but I don’t see what’s so bad about that. (PHoM 1958)

6. Burleigh Grimes –
Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 117 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

7. Hughie Jennings –
In the 1986 BJHBA, James presented two top-100 lists, one for peak value, the other for career value. It seems to me that the HoM should include the top peak players regardless of how they place on career value. Jennings would rank about # 30 on my all-time peak list, so I see him as fully qualified for the HoM. (PHoM 1933)

8. José de la Caridad Méndez –
Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. Hero of the dramatic first Negro League World Series in 1924. (PHoM 1938)

9. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

10. Bucky Walters –
Over 8 seasons (1936-37, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.1 wins above team, 267 IP, 120 DERA+, and 72 OPS+. (PHoM 1958)

11. Ducky Medwick –
7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. His 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. (PHoM 1958)

12. Alejandro Oms –
According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 25+ WS. And like Averill, he’s missing the first 3-5 seasons of a typical HoM career.

13. Willard Brown –
He did everything very well except for drawing walks.

14. Mickey Welch –
Over 6 seasons (1884-85, 87-90) he averaged 29-15, 3.2 wins above team, 415 IP, 119 DERA+.

15. Charlie Keller –
Four seasons with 31+ WS; missed 200-250 prime games due to WWII. Good left fielder (2.62 fWS/1000).

These guys are meritorious too:

16. Biz Mackey – just misses.

17. Roger Bresnahan

18. Red Ruffing – drops a few places in my pitcher reevaluation.

19. Cool Papa Bell
20. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
21. Vic Willis
22. Buzz Arlett
23. Gavy Cravath
24. Joe Gordon
25. Dobie Moore
26. George Burns
27. Mel Harder
28. Urban Shocker
29. Dick Redding

30. Johnny Pesky – with a .394 OBP and an A- fielder at shortstop and at third base, I see him as the second best of the four “teammates” that Halberstam wrote about. (I have Dom DiMaggio at # 42 and Doerr at # 49, though, frankly, all three were about equally good.) I’m looking forward to the eligibility of the final “teammate” in 1966.

31. Leroy Matlock
32. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals -

Leon Day – It appears that he was a step behind Matlock and Hilton Smith; he just misses my 93 player consideration set.

Other top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
I have him ranked # 38. Was almost never the best pitcher on any of his teams; in my estimation, being the best number-two pitcher of his time just isn’t enough to qualify for the HoM.
   85. favre Posted: September 18, 2005 at 11:22 AM (#1625669)
I’m back, after missing the past three elections. Long story short, I just moved to London. Ranking these guys certainly did not get any easier while I was gone.

1.Earl Averill
2.Eppa Rixey

Before I disappeared I was one of Earl’s best friends; I’m glad to see he’s getting some more support. Compare him with John Beckwith: Chris/David’s MLE’s put Beckwith at 137 OPS+ in about 8000 PA’s; Earl Averill has a 133 OPS+ in 7200 PA’s. However, Averill also had a couple of great seasons in the PCL at ages 25 and 26, which would bring them pretty close to even. Averill was an outstanding centerfielder, who saved a lot of runs; Beckwith played SS/3B, but does not have a great reputation with the glove. Beckwith projects to somewhere between 315-350 WS; Averill is at 280, but moves into the Beckwith range if you give him some PCL credit.

Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

3.Hal Newhouser
4.Jake Beckley
5.Wally Schang

Newhouser has a tremendous prime, even with a significant war discount. He doesn’t have much career outside his prime, though, so he doesn’t quite make an elect-me spot. Beckley, of course, is the opposite of Newhouser: not much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, which is impressive for a catcher.

6.Clark Griffith
7.Jose Mendez
8.Rube Waddell

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

9.Alejandro Oms
10.Cool Papa Bell

Based on his NeL projections, Oms looks a lot like Earl Averill, who is first on my ballot. Bell’s projections put him at near 400 WS; I think we missed the boat on him. I know Max Carey was elected on a strange ballot, but why Carey, and not Bell?

11. Biz Mackey
12.Tommy Leach
13. Joe Gordon
14.Bobby Doerr
15.Hugh Jennings

Mackey, with position adjustments, fits very comfortably into the long-career-and-great-defense-who-could-hit-some group. Leach actually has more career WS than any position player on the ballot except for Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Gordon and Doerr were very similar players: great D at 2nd, could hit a little. The lack of career keeps Jennings low on the ballot, but he is still the best shortstop on the board.

16.George Sisler
17.Joe Medwick

Reading the discussion thread has convinced me to move both of these players up considerably; both had more defensive value than I had initially thought. I almost put Sisler on the ballot, but given the choice, I think I would rather have Jennings.

18.Cupid Childs
19.Larry Doyle
20.Dick Redding
21.Wes Ferrell

I’ve never been really enamored with Ferrell; it’s just hard for me to get excited about a 100 OPS+, even though I know that’s fantastic hitting for a pitcher. I also know that I have short career pitchers like him on my ballot. Part of me thinks he belongs on the ballot, but when I look at the guys ahead of him, I just can’t quite pull the trigger.

22.George Van Haltren
23.Edd Roush
24.Quincey Trouppe
25.Red Ruffing

I think Rixey is better than Ruffing: he pitched for more innings on worse teams with a better ERA+, and that does not take account the time he missed for WWI. Was the jump in Ruffing’s effectiveness from Boston to New York due at least in part to a better defense?
   86. Jeff M Posted: September 18, 2005 at 02:18 PM (#1625695)
1960 Ballot

1. Newhouser, Hal – I know his biggest years were during the war, and who is to say whether he would have done as well otherwise, but he certainly dominated the environment presented to him. I do not discount war years because I think it is impossible to put a number on it (since no one has yet reliably come up with a method to quantify league discounts). I’ll also mention that BP does not discount his 1946 at all.

2. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

3. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

4. Jennings, Hughie – Currently reading “Where They ‘Aint” by Burt Solomon about the old Baltimore Orioles. It is a very good read so far. “Hughey” seems to have been a genuinely good spirit, and his theretofore dismal baseball career was rescued by Ned Hanlon.

5. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

6. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

7. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

8. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

9. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

10. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, because he would be a shoo-in. But, he was a peak performer anyway, and could swing the bat.

11. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

12. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

13. Averill, Earl – Decided to give him minor league credit, which I have mixed feelings about.

14. Sewell, Joe – A re-appearance on the ballot. He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

15. Gordon, Joe – I think he’s quite a bit ahead of Doerr, at least in terms of where he is on the ballot. Most of the gap is probably meaningless on an actual baseball diamond.

Required Disclosure(s):

Ruffing, Red – Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a small boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Rixey, Eppa – No question in my mind he’s better than Ruffing. However, he never really had flashes of brilliance, and for me that’s a pre-requisite to the HoM.

Griffith, Clark – It is strange to have him in this section of my ballot, because he was on my ballot for so long. He is just off my ballot at #17. He isn’t as high as he was before because we’ve got some fine candidates eligible since he became eligible and because I determined I was slightly overrating the early pitchers.
   87. Michael Bass Posted: September 18, 2005 at 07:28 PM (#1626200)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

Pesky was a nice player, but would require much more war credit than I'm willing to give to be a serious candidate. Day is disappointing, and not a serious HOM candidate. The others aren't really worth mentioning.

1. Hal Newhouser (new) - WARP3's meager WWII discount has deservingly taken some knocks, but in this case, it seems to fit, knocking down his 44-45 just enough that it fits perfectly with his 46-49. Like Ed Walsh, an inner-circle peak guy.

Hal's imminent election only reminds me of how underrated Méndez is, though. Please take another look at him. He wasn't Newhouser, but he wasn't too far away from him either.

2. Wes Ferrell (3) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

3. Hughie Jennings (4) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

4. Dobie Moore (5) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

I'm finally going with my gut here. He did not have a super-long career, but he had a monster peak, and his career was all prime (well, we don't know about the Army years, which he just gets some vague credit for, but you get the picture). The comparison to Boudreau, moves him up this high. Dobie is so overlooked it's unbelievable.

5. José Méndez (6) - I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

I think this is the electorate's single most underrated player. This is in part because he does not show up so much in the Negro League awards and polls, because his best work was in Cuba, at a time when all of the best Negro League players were playing in Cuba. Compare Mendez's career to Ed Walsh who, deservingly, cruised into the HOM. Was Mendez's pitching height as high as Walsh's? Likely not, but it wasn't that far off. Some of that gap is closed by Mendez's hitting, which was excellent for a pitcher. Some more of that gap is closed by Mendez having a little value after his peak (when he came back from the injury, he had one solid season left in him), something Walsh had zero of. I'd rate Walsh above Mendez, but so much difference that Walsh flies in on his first ballot while Mendez struggles to break double figure ballots? Doesn't make sense to me.

6. Bobby Doerr (7) - This is the point of the big dropoff, after which I'm no longer sure anyone is a HOMer, and the next 20-30 slots are kind of a big jumble. Doerr is not, in view, close to Boudreau, but he was a great defender at 2B, and has something to like for all voters.

7. Red Ruffing (8) - I love these hitting pitchers if you can't tell. Just not enough peak to rank higher than this. I had him above Moore/Wells earlier, but I can't justify that at all now that I'm actually posting. Still, a good strong Lyons-style candidate in value terms.

8. Earl Averill (9) - Moving on up; peak, prime, career. Fielding is in question, but I use WARP which thinks much less of his fielding than Win Shares, so I'm not too worried about overranking him. This gives him one year of minor league credit. Very good player.

9. Bucky Walters (10) - Impressive peak and prime. Ruffing's career advantage trumps Walters' peak advantage in this case, because of war factors, which add slightly to Ruffing and subtract slightly more from Walters.

10. Dizzy Dean (11) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

11. Joe Sewell (12) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit. His offense isn't quite good enough to justify higher, but it was good enough to demand a ballot spot.

12. Clark Griffith (13) - Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone. He also pitched in a tougher league than those who immediately preceeded and followed him.

13. Willard Brown (14) - For Williard, I compared him to Oms and Suttles. With reasonable war credit, he is clearly, though not substantially, better than Oms. I do not think he was as good as Suttles. Suttles was below this on my ballot, but a second look at him tells me I underrated him some. Anyway, he had a nice career once war credit is in, and some nice peak and prime as well.

14. Joe Gordon (15) - I like him a touch better than the group, though not that much. Seems like lots of folks have him top 20-25, and that's give or take about where I have him.. To me, he's basically Sewell lite once you add a touch of war credit. Not an overly long career or overly high peak, but all prime.

15. Quincy Trouppe (unranked) - With no reason to believe his defense was Lombardi-esque, I've concluded that even an average defensive catcher with his offensive numbers and peak probably is better than Mackey, who I still like.

-------------------------

16. Bob Johnson (16) - Little bit like Averill, though no minor league credit for Bob. He could hit, field (though in a corner). No peak like Averill, but career is all prime, with the possibly exception of 1945 if you slice up his stats (I think 1944 was so good that even with a steep discount, that's a strong year).

17. Dick Redding (17) - Of similar value to Bill Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. Just not quite the peak, and for all the talk about a long career I don't see that either. Still, very good pitcher on the second tier, right in the mix for those last 50 HOM slots.

18-20: Sisler, Browning, Mackey
21-25: Trout, Medwick, Leonard, Elliot, Oms
26-30: Shocker, Dunlap, Monroe, Matlock, Buffinton
31-35: Williamson, Bartell, F. Jones, Waddell, Scales
36-40: Lundy, Taylor, H. Smith, Passeau, Veach
41-45: Bond, Klein, Uhle, Poles, Byrd
46-50: Van Haltren, Harder, Warneke, Berger, Bell

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Medwick - Not as good as Bob Johnson in my view. Peak not as high as you might think, and career is shortish. How can he rank ahead of Sisler, who had a similar career shape, but a much higher peak? #22, nonetheless, he is not a terrible choice. Just not a prime one.

Mackey - #20. Mackey's career was really not all that long (minimal credit for the back half when he couldn't hit at all). But he had a nice prime in the first half, and was certainly an A catcher at a minimum. I do hope to vote for him someday.

Rixey - You all know my feelings on him. The Beckley of pitchers, neither should be within miles of the HOM.

Sisler - #18. I like him a lot, clearly superior to Medwick IMO. I think we'll get him back on my ballot when the backlog starts to clear out in the 60s. At least I hope so.

Van Haltren - #46. You know, I'm not a huge fan, but I see the argument for him, and it's kind of cool that he's made his way back into the top 10. Nice roller coaster for him. Damn near elected to a steady drop out of the collective consciousness. Is he making a comeback? Anyway, not enough peak or long enough career for me, but he was a fine player.
   88. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 18, 2005 at 09:33 PM (#1626390)
Michael,

I can see that you like Mendez a lot but what about Waddell? They both seem to be peak pitchers from the dead ball era who pitched the same amount of innings in their primes (I think the end of MEndez career is mostly fluff), yet Rube has a career 134 ERA+ while Mendez has been MLE'ed to 118. I know that Waddell is the supposed king of the unearned run but 16 points of ERA+ is substantial.

I have Mendez in my top 25 and he hopefully will return to my ballot someday, but I can't put him above Waddell, who is also off my ballot.
   89. Michael Bass Posted: September 18, 2005 at 09:49 PM (#1626399)
Waddell has ERA+, but absolutely nothing else going for him. His UER are terrible, he was a bad hitter, and his innings finishes were unimpressive (only 4 top 10 finishes, one of which was 10th). All in all, I agree with WARP1's assessment of him, that he only had 3 truly "peak" seasons, fewer than Mendez/Newhouser/Walsh and that those peak seasons were not of Newhouser/Mendez/Walsh quality.

As for Mendez, he was a good enough hitter to hang around after his pitching days as a SS. I don't give him any extra credit for his SS playing time, but I do credit him as a very good hitting pitcher, which is a substantial plus. He was also a workhorse during his peak, something Waddell really wasn't.
   90. Chris Cobb Posted: September 18, 2005 at 09:50 PM (#1626400)
Rube has a career 134 ERA+ while Mendez has been MLE'ed to 118.

118 is Mendez's DERA+. DERA+ is NOT directly comparable to ERA+, because it is normalized to a 4.5 run/g environment and adjusted for fielding.

Waddell's DERA+ is 124, which is brilliant for DERA, and higher than Mendez's, but when you take account of Mendez's undoubted superiority as a hitter and a fielder, the DERA+ gap narrows to close to nothing.

I think Waddell probably earned more career win shares, but Mendez had the better sustained peak. I see them as very close. On my still developing ballot, I have Waddell at 21 and Mendez at 17.
   91. EricC Posted: September 18, 2005 at 10:02 PM (#1626408)
1960 ballot.

1. Wally Schang Tremendous career value in his long career, many seasons with > 120 OPS+ as a C. An OBP-heavy OPS, ranking 2nd all time among C in career OBP.

2. Joe Sewell 87.4 WARP3 in 1903 games is arguably a HoM-worthy career, while the number of seasons among the top N players in league is evidence of a HoM-worthy peak. Like with Schang, the answer to AL vs. NL league strength in the 1910s-1920s has a big effect on his all-time standing.

3. Hal Newhouser Back when he finally got into Cooperstown, I intuitively thought that only made it because of the WWII bonus. Research has changed my opinion. An Ed-Walsh type pitcher who is worthy in spite of any bonus that he got from WWII.

4. Red Ruffing We haven't seen anybody quite like him; a tad below Eddie Plank and a tad above Rixey IMO is the best description. A lower peak than any other pitcher I've voted for so strongly, but his great career length more than makes up for it. More career WS as a Yankee than any other pitcher.

5. Joe Gordon With all the talk about giving WWII credit, will it actually make any difference between anybody getting elected or not? Comparisons with the performance of similar players by age suggests that he may have missed out on some great seasons.

6. Bobby Doerr Another great 2B.

7. Earl Averill Top ML CF of the 1930s.

8. Charlie Keller After the discussion, looked at him again, and still like him. Won't make the HoM because injuries curtailed his career, but his prime looks like the real deal to me. Had his best seasons in the worst-possible time to be a post-1920 slugger and lost nearly two seasons at his probable peak.

9. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in the 1930-1943 AL.

10. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, like Sam Rice, but with outstanding speed.

11. Lefty Gomez With "dominant season" pitcher bonuses, his 2 Cy-Young type seasons help to boost him above other high-peak short career pitchers.

12. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak.

13. Joe Medwick Played like an inner-circle HoMer for 3 years, but like a non-HoMer the rest of his career.

14. Biz Mackey One of the greatest NeL catchers. Looked at Trouppe again, but still have more confidence in Mackey as a bona fide candidate. Radcliffe and Petway are also still in the NeL C glut, Looking forward to comprehensive NeL statistical data in order to do a better job of sorting everybody out.

15. Sam Rice I think his league-adjusted career value puts him in HoM territory, though I can understand why there's not a lot of love for singles-hitting right fielders.

Jennings , Ferrell , Rixey and Griffith were all good enough to have made my ballot in previous years.
   92. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 18, 2005 at 11:33 PM (#1626472)
Thanks Chris. I hadn't realized that you had normalized Mendez ERA+. I may raise Mendez next time, however I still think I see Waddell as slightly better. Neither is going to be on my ballot.
   93. dan b Posted: September 19, 2005 at 12:53 AM (#1626560)
1.Newhouser One of the best ML pitchers who played their entire career during the first 40 years of the lively ball era. Limiting discussion to that time period, only Grove, Hubbell, Roberts (stats thru 1959) and Feller were better. Spahn’s career value adds him to the list if you include 1960-1963.
2.Medwick PHoM 1956. Lots of peak value, career value not shabby.
3.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
4.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
5.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
6.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
7.Averill More WS over 10 consecutive years than any other ML player on the ballot. PHoM 1960.
8.Ferrell Tweaking my system to favor peak over career in evaluating pitchers moves Ferrell up.
9.Brown, Willard
10.Leach PHoM 1926.
11.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
12.Cravath Would be in my PHoM had the mle’s been available back in the early 30’s.
13.Ruffing Or should Rixey be just ahead of Ruffing?
14.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
15.Browning PHoM 1906 and returning to my ballot for the first time since 1933.
   94. Chris Cobb Posted: September 19, 2005 at 02:55 AM (#1626706)
1960 Ballot

Day, Newhouser, and Pesky are the most notable new arrivals.

1. Hal Newhouser (n/e). War-time discount or no, he has a tremendous peak, and his career innings pitched isn’t bad for his era. Among the weaker first-ballot electees we’ll see, but he’s the best available this year. Some folks have described Dizzy Dean as the Jennings of pitchers, but I don’t think Dean’s peak was that good. Newhouser’s peak was that good.
2. Clark Griffith (3). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
3. Hughie Jennings (4). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
4. Eppa Rixey (5). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the early 1960s. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close.
5. Wes Ferrell (6). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer to WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century major-league pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM. (Will Bert Blyleven be the second? Ray Brown, of course, is the first twentieth-century pitcher to reach the HoM but not the HoF.)
6.Alejandro Oms (7). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. I think he’s the best outfield candidate eligible. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player. Given the possibility that we are missing a season or two of major-league quality seasons at the beginning of his career, I continue to see Oms as the top outfielder candidate.
7. Red Ruffing. (9) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
8. Biz Mackey (10). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
9. Burleigh Grimes (14). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, as Grimes joins Rixey, Roush, and Cravath as representatives of that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 10 ballot spots.
10. Earl Averill (17). Re-evaluation of major-league outfield candidates boosts Averill significantly. The best combination of hitting, fielding, and durability available among the major-league candidates.
11. Willard Brown (8). Probably the #3 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard. Well-rounded player except for his plate discipline.
12. Joe Gordon (16) I think I’ve been underrating infielders a bit. Correction for that jumps Gordon up 3 spots (Doerr rises a corresponding set below). An eventual HoMer, in my view.
13.Bobo Newsom (15). My system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1938 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border. I hope Newsom won’t get passed by without a serious look.
14. Edd Roush (11). Great ballplayer, but lots of time out of the lineup keeps him from being higher. Slips a few spots, but stays on ballot.
15. Gavvy Cravath. (12) Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding keeps him from being higher. WARP’s coolness towards him drops him slightly this time as I try to take a more balanced look at outfield candidates.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Joe Medwick. See #25 below
George Sisler. See #16 below
George Van Haltren. See #22 below
   95. Chris Cobb Posted: September 19, 2005 at 02:57 AM (#1626711)
Off-Ballot

16. George Sisler (13). Truly outstanding peak, but outside of that seven-year run he was not generally an above-average player. Slips a bit on reevaluation, but I still would like to see him elected.
17. Jose Mendez. (19) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention.
18. Dick Redding. (20) Still paired with Mendez.
19. Bobby Doerr (24). Brilliant fielder; I’m liking him more now that I see he really was one of the top players of the 1940s.
20. Buzz Arlett. (21) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
21. Rube Waddell (22). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, Waddell seems well ahead of Joss and Dean.
22. George Van Haltren (27). Right on the all-time in/out line for me. If we get deep into the backlog in the next decade, he’ll get back onto my ballot.
23. Tommy Leach (26). Ditto.
24. Joe Medwick. (25). Fuller analysis shuffles the outfielders above him in my rankings a bit, but leaves me still unenthusiastic about his candidacy. He isn’t obviously unqualified, but his main distinguishing feature is his peak according to win shares, and i think it’s overrated. I’d take Oms, Averill, Brown, Roush, Cravath, Arlett, Van Haltren, and Leach first. Sadly, many of those more deserving players may never be elected. Time will tell.
25. Cool Papa Bell (28). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville. Note to self: Bell really needs a new study now that a lot more MeL data is available.
26. Bill Byrd (28). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher. He enters the ballot with contemporary Mel Harder, whom he betters, in my view, by a small amount, mostly on peak.
27. Rabbit Maranville. (30) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
28. Bucky Walters. (30) Chris J.’s RSIs move Walters ahead of Trout. Pitchers have more responsibility than other players to have their wins match their RS/RA ratio.
29. Leroy Matlock (31). A a very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
30. Larry Doyle (33). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
31. Spotswood Poles (34). Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
32. Bob Elliott</b> . Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. The slope of the rankings is close to flat once one passes 25, so a small change in my view of Elliott could jump him up a long way. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I can’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now. The lower end of the 1940s group—Doerr, Byrd, Walters, Elliott, Trouppe, Keller, D. Dimaggio—is really hard to figure out.
33. Mickey Welch. (37) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again. This ballot is unbelievably deep.
34. Carl Mays. (35) Wes Ferrell lite.
35. Urban Shocker. (36) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
36. Bob Johnson (66). Finally got around to jumping him up this year. Career is better than Medwick’s, I think, but even WARP1 agrees that his peak and prime trail that of his similar contemporaries Medwick and Averill. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but he’s close.
37. Hugh Duffy. (38) Another guy whom I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now nearly down to 40 in the rankings. Youch!
38. Jimmy Ryan
39. Roger Bresnahan
40. Wally Schang
41. Quincy Trouppe (41). I’ve started to do serious work on Trouppe this year. A quick-and-dirty career translation suggests that he isn’t quite at the level of Schang and Bresnahan, so I don’t feel that I am seriously disadvantaging him by leaving him just below them for now. I’ll have a firm placement of him in time for the 1961 ballot. Qualitatively, he seems a lot like Schang: a catcher who was a very good hitter and a solid but unspectacular defender.

42-45. Cupid Childs, George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller
46-50. Charley Jones, Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley, Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell
51-55. Dick Lundy, Mel Harder, Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper,
56-60. Johnny Pesky, Lave Cross, Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper
61-65. Bobby Veach, Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson,
66-70. Tommy Bond, Jim McCormick, George J. Burns, Jack Fournier, Bruce Petway
71-75. Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning
76-80. Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance, Leon Day, Tony Mullane
81-85. Hilton Smith, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger

Notable new arrivals in 1960.

Johnny Pesky. Nice little career. High peak value in a short career puts him in the Moore/Keller category of player, but he wasn’t quite as spectacular at his peak as they were.

Leon Day. He’s not close to the ballot. Good, not great peak, good, not great career. I’m still working on his placement. Right now I have him a bit above Hilton Smith.
   96. Andrew M Posted: September 19, 2005 at 04:29 AM (#1626790)
1960 Ballot

1. (new) Hal Newhouser. As a peak candidate with more than 100 WARP, I think he’s the best candidate on the ballot even with a war discount.

2. (3) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is very impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

3. (5) Earl Averill. For 10 years, Averill was one of the 3 best AL OFs—probably the best from 1934-36—who could both hit (133 OPS+/.297 EQA) and play A+ quality CF. Averill also has a good argument for receiving 1 and maybe 2 years of PCL credit if one is so inclined. Though he’s not really a peak candidate, his value over a 7-10 year period looks as good as anyone on the ballot.

4. (6) Eppa Rixey. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks ballot-worthy to me.

5. (7) Dobie Moore. Comparable peak at SS to Jennings, but a longer career. At his best, I think Moore may have been as good as any position player on this ballot, and with a few years credit for his army years, his career seems comparable length to Boudreau’s.

6. (8) Larry Doyle. My favorite lost cause. His career OPS+ (126) is outstanding for a middle infielder. I favor him slightly over Childs because he played a little longer and over Gordon and Doerr because I think his peak was higher—though it’s close if you factor in some type of league discount (which, for various reasons, I don’t do much of.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems about right to me from everything I’ve read about him.

7. (9) Geo. Van Haltren. Figuring out where he belongs in the OF glut is difficult as there aren’t any guys with truly similar careers. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) makes him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

8. (10) Rube Waddell. Downgraded, perhaps unfairly, for unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

9. (4) Joe Medwick. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is a real peak, and he has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that. Didn’t do much past the age of 30, which is why he isn’t higher. Just for fun, it would be interesting to know whether many contemporary baseball observers thought Averill or Bob Johnson were better players than Medwick.

10. (11) Hughie Jennings. I wish he’d been better for longer, but with all the middle infielders recently under consideration his five great years look even more impressive.

11. (13) George J. Burns. I like him better than Roush, which I realize is a minority view. Roush may have better rate stats, but Burns rarely missed a game and averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Could get on base, run, field, and always showed up to play.

12. (14) Edd Roush. You hear a lot of odd things about this guy, and I have a hard time getting a clear picture of Roush’s career. A good CF and among the best players in the NL for a decade. Also had a couple of MVP type seasons and was the one of the best players on a team that won a World Series. (OK, it was the 1919 Series, but still…) All in all, I think he’s just behind Averill and Van Haltren among CF candidates.

13. (15) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Jennings or Moore whose peaks seem higher to me.

14. (22) George Sisler. Back on the ballot thanks to his proximity to Medwick in various peak/career calculations. Looking again at his career between 1916-1922, I wonder whether I have not been seriously underrating him. Not much after that, but a lot of guys on this ballot were basically finished by the age of 30.

15. (16) Wes Ferrell. Great peak and hitting. Welcome back to the ballot, Wes.

Next 5
16. Red Ruffing
17. Cool Papa Bell
18. Alejandro Oms
19. Joe Gordon
20. Quincy Trouppe

Required disclosures:

Red Ruffing. Just off the ballot. I like Rixey more among the big innings pitchers.
Biz Mackey. Has fallen behind Trouppe as my favorite eligible catcher.


As always, gentlemen, it's a honor.
   97. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 19, 2005 at 04:59 AM (#1626852)
Very interesting election, although I probably won't be thrilled with whoever the holdover inductee is. Newhouser and Boudreau make my PHoM this year (and anybody who noticed that Boudreau was behind Trouppe last year, when that wasn't a PHoM-Elect Me slot...is probably paying too much attention to my ballot.)

1. Hal Newhouser (new) Quite a ways ahead of everybody else in my pitcher ranking system, even with a WWII discount. Similar to Ferrell but distinctly better. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Tommy Leach (3) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. The 1900s aren't any better represented than any other era, and worse than some. Made my PHoM in 1940.

3. Bill Monroe (4) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

4. Wes Ferrell (5) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above. Made my PHoM in 1958.

(4A. Lou Boudreau)

5. Quincy Trouppe (6) His numbers are comparable to all the other catcher candidates, without the 4 or 5 year period we don't have numbers for. I know the Mexican translations aren't as certain as some of the others, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good.

6. Dick Redding (7) At this stage of the Negro League pitcher analysis, nobody from the crowd has moved ahead of Cannonball Dick to me. I'm not sure the teens need many more pitchers, but better him than Rixey, or one of the hard-to-discern 30's OF.

7. Willard Brown (8) On the one hand, I’m not really sure he belongs. On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the other OF on the ballot. Chris's analysis showed him with the best career numbers of the OF candidates he looked at, and the peak numbers may have been deflated by the missing war years.

(So now Trouppe, Redding and Brown are the top of my PHoM backlog. This is going to be fun...)

8. Joe Sewell (9) While I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). They're not that far apart to me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. Earl Averill (11) His record appears close to the old CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead. Chris's analysis supports my feeling that he's just ahead of most of the pack.

(9A Bill Terry)

10. Bob Elliott (12) For everyone who said Hack fans should be supporting him, I agree. OTOH, his usage is comparable to Leach's, but I think his defensive value is demonstrably lower, and he played through the war. I was sure Hack was HoM-worthy, I'm not sure yet about Elliott.

11. Cupid Childs (13) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Every time I compare him to Doerr and Gordon, though, the less sure I feel about having him ahead. Made my PHoM in 1932.

12. Dobie Moore (14) For a long time I've had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore?

13. George Van Haltren (15) Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy.
(13A Max Carey)

14. Red Ruffing (10) I think I was overrating him some - he's hard to distinguish from Rixey, and he does seem to have gotten a lot of help from being a Yankee (although his best years in comparison to the team were in the team's best years, 37-39).

15. Joe Medwick (16) I was really tempted to make this a tie with Bob Johnson, but I have to admit with his peak, he's probably just ahead.

16. Bob Johnson (17) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.
17. Bobby Doerr (26) He's clearly behind Herman on career and peak, and wasn't clearly the best of his era as Childs was. I'm not really sure why his WS/WARP totals come out so much better than Gordon's, so I'm not putting him much above him.
18. Alejandro Oms (18) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
19. Eppa Rixey (19) I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era, but his numbers are impressive. Doesn't do great in my pitcher ranking system, but I'm not sure why.
20. Gavvy Cravath (23) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
21. Biz Mackey (21) I am comfortable that he's ahead of Bresnahan, Schang and Lombardi, but those numbers still aren't that striking, and they don't seem to match up to Trouppe's. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
22. Cool Papa Bell (20) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
23. Ben Taylor (24) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now, and I'd been overlooking the pitching. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
24. Jake Beckley. (25) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
25. Jose Mendez (22) Great peak, but I still think Redding's distinctly better.
(25A Sam Thompson, 25B Rube Foster)
26. Joe Gordon (31) Part of me feels he and Doerr should be on my ballot, but we're not really short on 2Bmen, and I already have 2 on there.
27. Bucky Walters (28) Could move up some more, but it's hard to seperate him from Dean.
28. Jimmy Ryan (29) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident.
29. Hughie Jennings (34) His best years were better than Moore's, but Moore sustained it longer. To me, that's more impressive.
30. George Sisler (32) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff
31. Rube Waddell (30) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
32. Dick Lundy (27) Close to Sewell, but doesn't quite get there.
33. Clark Griffith
34. Charley Jones
35. Edd Roush - Moves up a bit, but still don't see him in ballot range
36. Charlie Keller
37. Ernie Lombardi
38. Burleigh Grimes
39. Spotswood Poles
40. Dizzy Dean
   98. Esteban Rivera Posted: September 19, 2005 at 05:33 AM (#1626925)
1960 Ballot:

1. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hal Newhouser – Great string of years, some during the wra and some after. Jumps to the head of the pitchers on my ballot.

4. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

6. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

7. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

8. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

9. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

10. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

11. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

14. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

15. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but not enough to get him on the ballot yet.
   99. Ken Fischer Posted: September 19, 2005 at 12:20 PM (#1627069)
1960 Ballot

Like last time, I’ve included my top 20 to show where I place the required disclosures not on my ballot (Ferrell, Averill & Rixey). They still just miss. The exception is Griffith. I still don’t get the high praise others shower him with…to me he’s a poor man’s Welch. He was overshawdowed by Young and others in the 1890s. Hal is at the top and everyone moved up a slot.

1-Hal Newhouser 264 WS
Back-to-back MVPs, 7 straight All-Star teams and still strong after the war. Prince Hal stands well above Welch and Ruffing IMHO.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

3-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

4-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
He should make it in pretty soon. Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

6-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

7-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

8-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

9-Red Ruffing 322 WS
Several 20-win seasons in the 30s is impressive.

10-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

11-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

12-Joe Medwick 312 WS
I decided there had to be room for the last NL triple crown winner in my top 15.

13-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

14-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.

15-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

____________________________________________

16-Earl Averill 280 WS
He’s penalized some by a short career. Earl gave Indians fans something to cheer about until Bob Feller came along.

17-Wes Ferrell 233 WS
6-20 win seasons in 8 years during the live ball era. Wes is usually short changed because of his high ERA but it’s an unfair when compared to dead ball counterparts.

18-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

19-Eppa Rixey 315 WS
Rixey matches up well with Grimes & Faber. He had a long and interesting career. He is known for his time with the Reds but made it into the Series only once with the Phils early in his career.

20-Joe Sewell 277 WS
Very hard to strike out and had a tough act to follow (Chapman’s death). He made position change (to third base) late in his career and continued to still have great numbers.
   100. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 19, 2005 at 01:55 PM (#1627142)
All I will say is that's it's a very interesting election so far.

I have 42 ballots tallied up to this point. Still missing ballots from: me (I'll have one in), PhillyBooster, Patrick W, Kelly from SD, Dan G (?), the Commish, Max Parkinson, Trevor P., Carl G, Craig B, and Flaxseed.

David C. Jones has been removed from the list since he didn't vote in the previous five elections.
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