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Monday, September 26, 2005

1961 Ballot

New Candidates: Vern Stephens, Ralph Kiner, Pee Wee Butts.

Returnees: Joe Medwick, Earl Averill, Red Ruffing, Wes Ferrell, Biz Mackey, Clark Griffith, Eppa Rixey, and George Sisler.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2005 at 01:10 PM | 97 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2005 at 01:58 PM (#1642909)
hot topics
   2. karlmagnus Posted: September 26, 2005 at 02:24 PM (#1642956)
Stephens would be at bottom of main ballot, but WW2 discount on OPS+ of 119 takes him off it. Kiner is a slightly better Hack Wilson, quality superb but very short career. Joost was TERRIBLE in mid career, Sid Gordon another short career (though should get modest war bonus) and not Kiner’s quality. Butts really not very good.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1) Jake Beckley. #1 in this elect-1 year. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-4-5-4-6-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-5-6-5-7-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just above Rixey.

7. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7-6-8-8-7-9-8) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14-13-11-10) Clark Griffith credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

10. (N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: September 26, 2005 at 02:25 PM (#1642958)
11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-11-14-13) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

12. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

13. (N/A-10-9-12-11) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

14. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly, so now a little below. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

15. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

17. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits.

20. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

21. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

22. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
23.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
24. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
25. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
26. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
27. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
28. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
29. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
30. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
31. (N/A) Heinie Manush
32. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
33. Earl Averill. Fairly well off my ballot, and I think the team are giving him too much minor league credit. In the real world, 2019 hits at an OPS+ of 133 doesn’t get him close to the HOM. Not as good as Tiernan.
34. Wes Ferrell. Not enough career.
35. (N/A) Dick Lundy
36. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
37. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
38. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
39. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
40. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
41. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Very short career, and OPS+ of 119 needs to be discounted somewhat for the war. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756
42. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
43. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
44. Kiki Cuyler
45. Deacon McGuire
46. Jack Quinn
47. Tony Mullane
48. Pye Traynor
49. Jim McCormick
50. Dick Redding
51. Joe Judge
52. Edd Roush
53. Spotswood Poles.
54. Larry Doyle
55. Roger Bresnahan.
56. Wayte Hoyt.
57. Joe Gordon.
58. Harry Hooper.
59. Jules Thomas.
60. Wilbur Cooper
61. Bruce Petway.
62. Jack Clements
63. Bill Monroe
64. Jose Mendez
65. Herb Pennock
66. Chief Bender
67. Ed Konetchy
68. Bob Elliott.
69. Jesse Tannehill
70. Bobby Veach
71. Lave Cross
72. Tommy Leach.
73. Tom York
   4. ronw Posted: September 26, 2005 at 03:26 PM (#1643059)
1961 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Pete Browning I have been convinced that he was more unique than Redding, and thus deserves a higher spot. Failing to electing Pete is like failing to elect Hank Greenberg. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. When the Gladiator retired, only Brouthers, Connor, and Anson were probably better hitters.

2. Dick Redding I think he is like an Eddie Plank rather than an Eppa Rixey for career value. As a long-career flamethrower, maybe he is even a Nolan Ryan, although maybe with this sabermetric crowd I shouldn’t say that.

3. Bob Elliott Offensively, as of 1961 he is 2nd all-time to Stan Hack using unadjusted BWS. In fact, even with adjustments, he only drops below Frank Baker to 3rd. I think that everyone (including me) has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

4. Larry Doyle I’m surprised here, but I looked carefully at offense this week, and saw that offensively Doyle easily measures up to our existing bottom-tier 2B electees Frisch, Herman, Richardson and McPhee. He is below them defensively, but offensive output puts him ahead of Childs, Lazzeri, Evers, Doerr, and Gordon, despite some league-quality concerns.

5. Cupid Childs Seemed far ahead of all eligible 2B, until I really looked hard at Larry Doyle.

6. John McGraw Mugsy’s RCAA domination of the rough-and-tumble 1890’s, tells me we missed him. Offensively, his value is similar to Frank Baker’s minus 476 games, some of which could be made up by schedule-length adjustments. I now believe that fielding is the reason why the huge support for Jennings has not been applied to McGraw.

7. Dobie Moore We’ve missed him.

8.Biz Mackey I think we may be missing some offense. A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a bit lower peak.

9. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

10. Tommy Bridges Looking at Newhouser made me realize that Bridges was nearly as valuable a pitcher. Also similar to Coveleski in value.

11. Wes Ferrell Fine pitcher peak.

12. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

13. Bill Monroe The 2B glut is rivaling the CF glut.

14. George Sisler Has fluctuated tremendously on my ballot. He may drop off next week after a renewed Beckley study.

15. George Van Haltren I see him as a better hitter candidate than Medwick, Johnson, or Averill.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Joe Medwick – Now just ahead of Bob Johnson. I found out that they have the same BWS/162, 21.8. However, Johnson played 1863 games, while Medwick played 1984 games, so Medwick’s unadjusted BWS total (267.1) slightly surpasses Johnson. Medwick has the highest unadjusted BWS total of any eligible save Jake Beckley (278.9).

Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good. Still, I think I would rather have Lefty Gomez. For what it is worth, I see him as behind all HOM P except Red Faber.

Earl Averill – A bit more than Hack Wilson, but not quite enough to vault him on the ballot. I also think that among short-career outfielders, I would take Roush over Averill.

Eppa Rixey – I’ve supported him in the past, but now I like a little more peak.

Clark Griffith – Is just off the ballot.

Vern Stephens – Has just as much offensive value as Boudreau. However, Boudreau is at the bottom of our elected SS, has a higher fielding value, and has the monster season Stephens lacks. Vern could make the ballot someday.

Ralph Kiner – As a hitter, he’s Frank Howard minus 423 games. They have essentially the same career unadjusted BWS/162. (Kiner – 23.8, Hondo 23.3). Among electees, Kiner hit like Sherry Magee (23.7) minus 615 games. Unless a player has great fielding value (Kiner doesn’t) that’s not enough.

Pee Wee Butts – I think he misses out, but a solid career.
   5. OCF Posted: September 26, 2005 at 06:01 PM (#1643439)
Quite a World Series we just had wasn't it? It's the first World Series I can remember following - and my father was a Yankee fan. Whitey Ford breaking Babe Ruth's WS consecutive scoreless inning record (Babe Ruth!). Bobby Richardson's improbable 6 RBI game. And game 7 - the potential DP grounder that hit Kubek in the throat, the whole 8th inning. Hey, might as well give the retrosheet version. Since Kubek was injured on the play, it's easy enough to spot.

PIRATES 8TH: CIMOLI BATTED FOR FACE; Cimoli singled; Virdon singled [Cimoli to second]; DEMAESTRI REPLACED KUBEK (PLAYING SS); Groat singled to left [Cimoli scored, Virdon to second]; COATES REPLACED SHANTZ (PITCHING); Skinner out on a sacrifice bunt (third to first) [Virdon to third, Groat to second]; Nelson made an out to right; Clemente singled to first [Virdon scored, Groat to third]; Smith homered [Groat scored, Clemente scored]; TERRY REPLACED COATES (PITCHING); Hoak made an out to left; 5 R, 5 H, 0 E, 0 LOB. Yankees 7, Pirates 9.

Followed by a Yankee 2-run rally, followed by you-know-what.

I'll have my ballot in about Wednesday.
   6. sunnyday2 Posted: September 26, 2005 at 07:00 PM (#1643570)
Mazeroski's home run was enough to make a baseball fan out of any 10 year old boy, or at least that's they way it worked out for me.
   7. OCF Posted: September 26, 2005 at 07:09 PM (#1643592)
Interesting, the public fascination with final outcomes. Interesting what gets remembered and what slides away. If you say "Mazeroski's home run," everyone understands immediately. But "Hal Smith's home run"? Bear in mind that Smith came up (his only AB of the game) with two out in the 8th and the Pirates still behind. It was a huge moment.
   8. Mark Donelson Posted: September 26, 2005 at 07:13 PM (#1643601)
Well, to be fair, the Kubek grounder does get a lot of attention as well. Perhaps there's some kind of one-event-per-inning rule working under the radar there...

Similarly, the Buckner grounder in '86 takes all the glory; the wild pitch preceding it gets no credit! (I'm not sure if this backs up your point, mine, or both of them...)
   9. TomH Posted: September 26, 2005 at 07:53 PM (#1643679)
or Bucky Dent's home run in 78, when actually, a HBP would have produced the same end result, assuming similar succeeding events of course.
   10. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 26, 2005 at 08:03 PM (#1643697)
1961 ballot

Early ballot this year, I feel I want to get it out of the way. I have this weird relaxed feeling toward this ballot after my pet candidate got elected last year. (hint: it wasn't Hal Newhouser)

Ted Lyons finally makes my PHOM, he has been near the top of the backlog since he first became eligible.

1. Wes Ferrell (3, PHOM 1956) - He may not be the best pitcher on the board but he was the best player to have played pitcher on the board. Nice peak, decent prime and a 100 OPS+ from the pitcher's spot.

2. Cupid Childs (4, PHOM 1939) - Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion. He had a very nice peak and a decent career for an 1890's MIer.

3. Joe Medwick (5, PHOM 1960) - His high WS peak peak puts him over Keller, Averill, and Kiner on my ballot. Otherwise he is roughly the same player with a little more career tacked on at the end.

4. Hugh Duffy (6) - Best of the 1890's CF trio dure to his superior peak. Is currently first in my PHOM backlog.

5. Dick Redding (7) - Highest he has ever been, I am convinced he was better than Mendez. 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era. The black Eddie Plank?

6. Charlie Keller (8) - With war credit Keller may have the highest peak on the board. However, his peak isn't Jenningsesque and he doesn't have many shoulder seasons. Odd how Jennings still finds his way onto my ballot posts, huh?

7. Bucky Walters (9) - High peak pitcher who was probably Ferrell's equal on the mound.

8. Dobie Moore (11) - Changed from my prelim as I find it hard to seperate the OFers too much. The black Hugh Jennings, his peak wasn't as high but if you give him army credit his career was longer.

9. Earl Averill (10) - His peak is nice but not great, however he had a fantastic 10 year run where he was always one of the top OFers in baseball. Over Kiner due to a year of PCL credit. That is how close they are.

10. Ralph Kiner (x) - Best power hitter on the board. I have his peak just below that of Keller and his career wasn't much longer either. The biggest difference is probably that Keller could field while Kiner could not.

11. Clark Griffith (12) - Best 19th century pitcher available and 4th best pitcher of the 1890's. Very impressive 3.99 DERA for a player of his era. Certainly rather see him in than Mickey Welch.

12. Quincy Trouppe (14) - If our MLE's are correct, I give him the biggest peak of any catcher currently on the board. The difference between he and Bresnahan is that Roger played CF, where it was possible to play 154 games in a season, hence racking up higher WARP, WS, RC, etc.

13. Joe Gordon (15) - Very similar to Bobby Doerr (#16). In fact I feel odd having any space between them.

14. Eppa Rixey - He was not Ted Lyons, but he certainly ranks better than Ruffing in my system. He pitched a lot of innings and he pitched them well. Receives WWI credit from me as well.

15. Pete Browning (17) - Jumps over Bobby Doeer due to teh discussion invovling he and Kiner. I find teh two players very similar, however Kiner's league was much tougher than Brownings. I can't remember the last time he made my ballot, probably sometime in the late 30's or early 40's.
   11. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 26, 2005 at 08:22 PM (#1643732)
16-20 Doer, Dean, GVH, Sisler, Elliot
21-25 Oms, Waddell, Bresnahan, Berger, Mendez
26-30 Cravath, Brown, Willis, Mackey, Roush
31-35 Bell, Lundy, Monroe, Ruffing, Veach
36-40 Doyle, Sewell, Shocker, Johnson, Leach
41-45 Thomas, McGraw, Stephens, Scales, Wilson
46-50 Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Burns, Taylor

Newbies:

They aren't newbies but this week is the first time I had the chance to get a real good look at Cepeda and Coimbre. I will keep them in my consideration set, but there are so many blank spots in their record that I can't really rank them yet. If we get everything filled in then they may appear in my top 50.

Stephens - I have him below Sewell in the Lundy, Monroe, Doyle, Sewell, Scales group. Just below the upcoming Rizzuto.

top 10ers - Ruffing is below Rixey on my list of long career pitchers. I dont' see anything special about him, much like Joe Sewell in that regard. I don't think I have any other top 10ers to explain.
   12. KJOK Posted: September 26, 2005 at 08:33 PM (#1643756)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP, 282 RCAP, 75 WARP1, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher from 1880s – 1915 means he should be in HOM.

2. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP, 346 RCAP, 103 WARP1, 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

3. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

4. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP, 271 RCAP, 78 WARP1, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

5. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP, 459 RCAP, 78 WARP1, 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND best 3B between 1875-1900!

6. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, 83 WARP1 and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s.

7. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP, 245 RCAP, 115 WARPP1, 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Probably best first baseman from 1880 – 1920.

8. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

9. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

10. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP, 354 RCAP, 104 WARP1, 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

11. EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, 99 WARP1 and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

12. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. .610 OWP, 241 RCAP, 90 WARP1, 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Underrated.

13. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player.

14. BOB JOHNSON, LF. .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Best of the outfield glut.

15. RED RUFFING, P. 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, 113 WARP1 and 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Batting prowess puts him ahead of the pitching glut.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

RALPH KINER, LF. .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 75 WARP1, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson, or even Averill and Medwick, who can’t make my ballot.

VERN STEPHENS, SS. .572 OWP, 192 RCAP, 83 WARP1, 7,240 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Only 192 career RCAP at weak hitting SS position plus only 1 great non-war year season (1949) dooms him.

RETURNEES:

BOBBY DOERR, 2B. .539 OWP, 234 RCAP, 107 WARP1, 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Falls just behind Monroe and Childs.

JOE GORDON, 2B. .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr.

EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP, 321 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp.

JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP, 267 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 8,142 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Initially overrated Medwick, so he’s moved off-ballot.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP, 478 RCAP, 95 WARP1, 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP, 81 WARP1, 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior. Even Pennants Added likes Tiernan. Still on my radar screen although off everyone elses.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, 118 WARP1, 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception somewhat a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

DUTCH LEONARD, P. 209 RSAA, 185 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, 92 WARP1 and 119 ERA+ in 3,220 innings. I have him very close to Farrell, but Farrell doesn’t make my ballot…

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.
   13. Daryn Posted: September 26, 2005 at 08:48 PM (#1643795)
1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

2. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

3. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment. Nice to see him reaching the top 10.

4. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Rixey and Ferrell, a six person group of whiteball pitchers that includes ballot-makers Waddell and Griffith. If you like Ruffing, you should like Grimes.

6. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

7. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

8. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang (who I have at about 25).

9. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Ralph Kiner – starting him here. Could be two spots higher or maybe two spots lower but I think I like him better than Medwick and less than Bell. I don’t like peak candidates but I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles.


11. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

12. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

13. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut.

14. Willard Brown – I see him as close to Medwick.

15. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin.

Just two required disclosures, which is low for me: Ferrell is in the 20s with Mendez, Averill is in the 30s with GVH and many other outfielders.
   14. sunnyday2 Posted: September 26, 2005 at 11:35 PM (#1644144)
OK, no more arguing about Kiner and Sisler, I'll just ante up here where it counts.

1. Dobie Moore (2 last week-4-2, PHoM 1957)

The black Jennings replaces the white one at the top of my ballot. I see him as the greatest player at his peak who is available in 1961.

2. Joe Medwick (3-5-3, PHoM 1954)
3. George Sisler (4-6-4. PHoM 1938)

The two hitters who combine a nice peak with a reasonable career length.

4. Tommy Bond (5-7-5, PHoM 1929)

Greatest peak pitcher available.

5. Pete Browning (12-13-13)
6. Ralph Kiner (new)

My "moneyball" analysis was meant to determine where Kiner belonged. It ended up reminding me how great Browning was. This is with a AA discount. Shoulda gone into the HoM before Stovey. Like Medwick and Sisler, Kiner has the combo of high peak and reasonable career length--though, when I say reasonable, I mean relative to the competition that is left at this point: Keller, Wilson, Berger, Klein et al. Let's face it, we don't have anybody else with both. So I'll take the peak over the career.

7. Rube Waddell (7-8-6, PHoM 1932)
8. Jose Mendez (8-9-7, PHoM 1957)
(8a. John Beckwith)
9. Addie Joss (9-10-11)

I'm not much for pitcher quotas. If the best available individual happens to be a position player, so be it. But there are worthy pitchers--3 more, in fact, for a total of 4 among my top 9.

10. Ed Williamson (10-11-12, PHoM 1924)
11. Willard Brown (11-12-10)
12. Charley Jones (13-14-15, PHoM 1921)

The last of eligible among the great NeL hitters, Brown splits the last of the great 19C position players still hanging out there.

13. Joe Gordon (14-15-x)

The Ed Williamson of the 20C--great glove, pretty good hitter with some power, short career but definite impact.

14. Dick Redding (15-x-x)

An eventual PHoMer, I think.

15. Earl Averill (24, 1st time on my ballot)

Averill or Stephens, Stephens or Averill? Gasp, Stephens had about 75 more PAs! And while Averill has a big defensive edge over the other 1B-OF candidates, well, Stephens was a SS and a SS who moved Johnny Pesky off the position. But Averill's OPS+ edge is more than 10 points and Stephens gets a WWII discount for 3 years, so.... I've been knockin' Averill vis-a-vis Sisler and Medwick and Kiner, but the simple fact that I gave him a close look gets him here. It's close, though.

16. Vern Stephens (new)
17. Larry Doyle (17)
18. Bobby Doerr (20)
19. Charlie Keller (49)
20. Quincy Trouppe (22)
(20a. Harry Stovey)

21. Hugh Duffy (21)
22. Eppa Rixey (23)
23. Gavvy Cravath (18)
24. Mike Tiernan (83)
25. Eddie Cicotte (25)
26. Cupid Childs (26)
27. Bob Johnson (65)
28. Dizzy Dean (27)
29. Alejandro Oms (28)
30. Bill Monroe (29)

Dropped out of top 30: Chuck Klein (16 to 41), Hilton Smith (30 to 31)

Required: Clark Griffith (33), Wes Ferrell (49), Red Ruffing (50)
   15. Brent Posted: September 27, 2005 at 04:05 AM (#1645033)
1961 Ballot:

With a weak incoming class, we have another opportunity to draw from the backlog. My personal hall of merit inductee this year is Goose Goslin. If I could, this year I’d vote for 31 players.

(Note - for the pitching candidates, I’ve listed their average statistics for peak/prime seasons, which I’ve identified as seasons with Warp1>5.5. Although I give credit for the other seasons too, my ratings are dominated by a player’s performance during his peak/prime.)

1. Wes Ferrell –
Over 8 seasons (1929-36) he averaged 20-12, 4.6 wins above team, 264 IP, 127 DERA+, 104 OPS+. When you account for the hitting, that’s not too far behind Newhouser. (PHoM 1944)

2. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL and an A+ center fielder. Counting 1928, 10 seasons with 24+ WS. (PHoM 1957)

3. Clark Griffith –
Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 127 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

4. Dizzy Dean –
Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 131 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB, MVP for 1934 (placing 2nd in ’35 and ’36). Maybe some of you Jennings voters should take another look at a pitcher whose career was all peak. (PHoM 1958)

5. José de la Caridad Méndez –
Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. Hero of the dramatic first Negro League World Series in 1924. (PHoM 1938)

6. Burleigh Grimes –
Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 117 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

7. Hugh Duffy –
It seems weird not to have Jennings here; Duffy’s been paired with Jennings in the top half of my ballot since I began voting in 1931. 8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

8. Bucky Walters –
Over 8 seasons (1936-37, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.1 wins above team, 267 IP, 120 DERA+, and 72 OPS+. (PHoM 1958)

9. Ducky Medwick –
7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. His 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. (PHoM 1958)

10. Alejandro Oms –
According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 25+ WS. And like Averill, he’s missing the first 3-5 seasons of a typical HoM career.

11. Willard Brown –
He did everything very well except for drawing walks.

12. Mickey Welch –
Over 6 seasons (1884-85, 87-90) he averaged 29-15, 3.2 wins above team, 415 IP, 119 DERA+.

13. Charlie Keller –
For 8½ seasons until his career was derailed by a back injury in June 1947, Keller was a genuinely great player. 4 seasons with 31+ WS. Good left fielder (2.62 fWS/1000).

14. Biz Mackey –
His HoM-quality reputation is consistent with his MLE OPS+ through 1931 of 113 together with his outstanding defense. I believe that the dramatic drop-off in his MLEs starting in 1932 is probably partly an artifact of the translation procedures.

15. Roger Bresnahan –
To see why I think Bresnahan is HoM worthy, let’s compare him to the other top catchers of his time. Here are the best seasons by major league catchers, 1901-10 according to WS:
1. Bresnahan 1906 – 29
2. Bresnahan 1908 – 27
3. Gibson 1909 – 24
4. Kling 1903 – 22
4. Kling 1908 – 22
6. Kling 1906 – 21
7. Bresnahan 1905 – 19
7. Kling 1907 – 19
9. Bresnahan 1907 – 18
9. Gibson 1910 – 18

Bresnahan also had two all-star-quality seasons as a center fielder.

These guys are meritorious too:

16. Cool Papa Bell

17. Red Ruffing –
Over 9 seasons (1928, 30, 32-33, 35-39) he averaged 17-11, zero wins above team, 248 IP, 117 DERA+, 93 OPS+.

18. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
19. Buzz Arlett
20. Vic Willis
21. Gavy Cravath
22. Joe Gordon
23. Dobie Moore
24. George Burns
25. Leroy Matlock
26. Mel Harder

27. Ralph Kiner – was relatively easy to rank because he was directly comparable to, and a half step behind, Joe Medwick and Charlie Keller.

28. Urban Shocker
29. Dick Redding
30. Johnny Pesky
31. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals -

With war credit, I have Johnny Sain ranked at # 45; he was a great pitcher from 1946-48 and had a couple other really good seasons. I’ve placed Vern Stephens at # 80 – the war discount hurt him. (I’ll be glad when we’re finished with this 1940s cohort – it’s so difficult trying to correct for the effects of the war.) Eddie Joost was certainly a unique and interesting player, but doesn’t make my consideration set.

Other top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
Although his peak/prime lasted a little longer than the candidates I’ve ranked higher, it was also less distinguished. Over 10 seasons (1912, 16-17, 20-25, 28) he averaged 18-15, 0.6 wins above team, 275 IP, 112 DERA+. I’ve ranked him # 37.

George Sisler –
With only 7 prime seasons, his peak was simply not strong enough to make him a serious contender. I’ve ranked him # 57.
   16. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:43 PM (#1645495)
1961 is my own personal HOM Year of the Pitcher. I've rejigged my ballot extensively AGAIN this year. The queries about the dearth of pitching and previous questions about balanced representation have made me look deep into my decision-making to figure out what the h*ll I'm doing with my ballots (and wouldn't you all like to know the answer to that one!). To make this story a little shorter, the answer is that I'm chronically over-rating OFs and chroncially underrating Ps, plus I could use an infielder on this ballot.

Meanwhile, in honor of Ralph Kiner, it's the Kiner's Korner ballot!

1 Jose Mendez aka Jose Mendehlson: Peaktastic pitching in addition to a plus bat, and versatility.

2 Charley Jones aka Cleon Jones: He hasn't been on my ballot since 1931 (my second year). But like Browning, it was time for me to quit ignoring him and take his candidacy seriously. I've given him two years of credit at his average rate for the surrounding period. Without such credit he's about as qualified as Browning. But with the credit (and appropriate deductions for QoP in the early AA), he's pretty monstrous, easily beating Medwick in peak and prime. At first I placed him at mid-ballot, but now I'm rejiggering my entire ballot, and he's the only corner outfielder who's stayed above the hurlers.

3 Leroy Matlock aka Ben Matlock: Overlooked Negro League star whose great years are obscured by a combination of a fractured career path (that took him through several Central American locales), the lack of strong personality to identify with, and pitching in an era (the depression decade) when the Negro Leagues were having a tough time keeping things together and the papers didn't report on their activities as much. That's the definition of a NgL Stealth Candidate.

4 Bucky Walters aka Muddy Walters: The Leroy Matlock of the National League? A very high peak and a reasonably long career with enough shoulder seasons to support the big peak.

5 Hugh Duffy aka Hughie Jennings: Same old Hugh. High peak, sweet prime, enough career to make the whole package work. Also enough to keep him from sliding down too far into the pitchers.

6 Willard Brown aka Kevin Millard: When I did his MLEs a couple months ago, they were my first stab at the process and I hadn't refined it much. So I returned to my original MLEs and did them over again, expecting his MLE numbers to drop after tweaks to the procedures. Instead they went upward. Enough so that he lands here, even after all this ballot recasting.

7 Alejandro Oms aka Amos Oms: Not a great peak, but an excellent prime and career. He moves down my ballot not because he isn't great, but because he is at a position that I'm overvaluing.

8 Joe Medwick aka Ducky Walters: Likely inductee to be sure, but slips another couple slots in my rankings due to the re-emergence of Jones and the positional balance question.

9 Pete Browning aka Pete Brown: Strong candidate with an oustanding peak. If he'd just had the ability to play longer, he'd be a shoe-in.

10a (Hal Newhouser, aka Joe Hauser, pHOM eta 1964)

10 Gavy Cravath, aka Gabby Hamner: A bit behind the other corner OFs. I'm moving him down in a nod to positional balance (see Moore below for more on that).

11 George Sisler, aka Dick Sisler: Recent reconsideration gets him onto my ballot. He's better than Bill Terry, who I thought was a mistake selection.

12a (Stan Hack, aka Hack Wilson, pHOM eta 1968)

12 Quincy Trouppe, aka Quincy Jones: Best catcher available. In 1963, Campy will be best available. Then it's Trouppe again until 1969 and Yogi Berra. Then after Yogi, Trouppe will be the best catcher available until well into the 1980s.

13a (Billy Herman, aka Herm Willingham, pHOM eta 1972)

13b (Ted Lyons, aka Barry Lyons, pHOM eta 1972)

13 Wes Ferrell, aka Mike Farrell: Another in the mold of Matlock. He's, in my opinion, the weakest among the short-mid career high-peak hurlers because, well, his peak isn't high enough and his shoulders are droopier than the rest.

14 Red Ruffing, aka Orange Ruffing: Best long-career hurler available, but peak isn't great, and I like peaks.

15a (Hugie Jennings, aka Hugh Duffy, pHOM eta 1976)

15 Dobie Moore, aka Larry Doby or aka Michael Moore or aka Archie Moore: In looking over my ballot, I felt it was too laden with corner outfielders, and that I needed an infielder. George J Burns is my 22nd ranked left fielder; Moore is my 17th ranked SS. I think it was best to go with the infeilder.

FALLING AWAY
George J Burns, aka Britt Burns: The numbers are there, the nice peak, the great prime, etc...but I haven't been contextualizing it between positions very well.

TOP TEN NUH-UHS
Clark Griffith, aka Horace Clark: I still don't get it, and I probably never will.

Earl Averill, aka Earl Averill: Just off the end.

Eppa Rixey, aka Richard Nixon: Not so good as Ruffing.

Biz Mackey, aka Connie Mack: I'm not too keen on players whose OPS+ hovers around 100, crude though OPS+ may be.

NEW GUYS
Ralph Kiner, aka Ellis Kinder: As you all know, I prefer Burns to Kiner, but even so, how many corner OFs could I possibly have on my ballot? Well, 15, I suppose....

P.W. Butts, aka Pee Wee Reese: The Pokey Reese of his day.

Vern Stephens, aka Vern Stephenson: At the edge of my positional consideration set.
   17. andrew siegel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 03:00 PM (#1645544)
I just went back and re-did my personal HoM based on my current player rankings and my 1961 inductee is, laugh out loud!, Joe Start.

I have little new to add, so here is my ballot and the relevant others with shortform comments:

(1) George Van Haltren (3rd)--The sum total of his accomplishments put him in the Sheckard, Magee, Goslin class for me.

(2) Dobie Moore (4th)--Ranks in the same general vicinity as Jennings, Boudreau, and Cronin, though a bit behind.

(3) Earl Averill (5th)-- I agree with all those who argue that he is one small rung above the Sisler/Medwick gang.

(4) Wes Ferrell (6th)--I've got a big knot of pitchers ranked around 100th best player thus far (Caruther, McGinnity, Keefe, Vance, Coveleski, etc.) and Ferrell fits snuggly in the middle of that group.

(5) Cupid Childs (8th)--Bounces back above Rixey. Hit like Jennings, fielded 2B well, and had a much longer prime. Very similar in total value to Herman.

(6) Eppa Rixey (7th)--Behind Lyons but ahead of Ruffing, Grimes, and Faber. Size of the HoM suggests that my PHoM line will run somewhere through that group.

(7) Alejandro Oms (9th)-- I liked the subjective reports when he first became eligible and now have the stats to back it up. He looks a lot like Duffy, only with a slightly better bat.

(8) Hugh Duffy (10th)-- I think WS captures his value to his teams better than other metrics.

(9) Red Ruffing (11th)-- Next in line for my PHoM. My metrics have him even with Rixey; I think they don't adjust for the team factor quite enough.

(10) George Sisler (12th)-- Once you adjust for season-length and value of 1B fielding, his prime is good enough to seal the HoM case for me, but I totally understand why career voters with relatively high replacement levels have him as low as 50.

(11) Joe Medwick (13th)--Very similar in value to guys like Sisler, Terry, Thompson, Ryan, and Roush. I'm allowing subjective evaluations and WS a bit of a role in sorting players within that group.

(12) Edd Roush (15th)--If I had to pick one of the remaining guys for the last HoM slot, I'd probably pick him, so he jumps a few places. Would be in already if not for quality of competition; we may be overadjusting for that issue.

(13) Biz Mackey (off/17th)-- Even with our current projections, I have him in the top 25 and I genuinely believe they underrate his bat. Not of the calibre of the catchers we have elected so far, but a better mix of quality and career length than any we have excluded. A tough player to evaluate.

(14) Jimmy Ryan (14th)-- Belongs with this gang, but nagging worries about the timing of his resurgence keep him towards the bottom of the knot.

(15) Joe Sewell (off/18th)-- Hit like Doerr and played mostly SS.

I've got Kiner 17th b/c/ I prefer him to the rest of his cohort (Keller, Hack Wilson, Browning, Klein, etc.) but not by that much. He is slated to make my PHoM somewhere around 1979.

Stephens is in the mid 20's. He's a viable candidate but needs to wait in line behind Sewell, Gordon, and Doerr.

Clark Griffith is around 30, largely based on his low season IP totals.
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: September 27, 2005 at 03:16 PM (#1645587)
Can we cut off the voting now? Thank you.

(Signed) Dobie Moore
   19. SWW Posted: September 27, 2005 at 03:29 PM (#1645629)
Submiting my ballot a little earlier than usual, because I won’t be available for the next few weeks. I have to go to a wedding. Namely, mine. For that same reason, my 1962 ballot will be in Mr. Murphy’s capable hands. If you all will just remind him that he’s got that, that’d be swell. Thanks.

1961 Ballot
1)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I have looked over the stats again and again, determined to bring my thinking in line with the electorate. And try as I might, I just can’t escape the conclusion that he’s the most meritorious guy on my ballot. So I’ve decided to stop fretting about it and just accept the fact that you’re all wrong in the head. A c.v. that includes a durable, Win Share-rich career, six “All-Star” appearances, terrific black and gray ink, four World Series appearances, and clever use (and non-use) of the spitball. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, 1952 Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
3)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Very surprised to see Joe here. Still on the ballot, I mean. Medwick continues a brief run of candidates with huge primes and a rather sharp drop-off. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely, like a certain shortstop I’ll discuss later. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Another tremendous high with decent career filler. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5)Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
I’m willing to accept the notion that he performed poorly with Boston because they used him so poorly. Factoring in the war years and his high totals in spite of it, I’m content to rank him this high. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.
6)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
I consider him to be the best catcher currently available for our consideration, and though his numbers are not as gaudy as Gibson or Santop, they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
7)Howard Earl Averill
I’m going to go ahead and say I was wrong in allowing him to slip off the ballot. A startling eight times as one of the 10 best players in his league.
8)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
He drops down from his personal high on my ballot, owing to my concerns about the lack of arc in his career. But I’m sticking with my man Sam, because I recognize how remarkable his career numbers are given his late start, and because he spent so much of his career as the best everyday player on a very bad team. Check the Win Shares, and it’s consistently Walter Johnson and Sam Rice as the Senators’ best. Think if he’d gotten a re-invention like Ruffing. A great one.
9)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.
10)Edd J Roush
Part of the celebrated center fielder glut. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
11)Willard Brown
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot. The general lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy does trouble me somewhat.
12) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
My ballot should demonstrate that I’m determined not to punish players for consistency over time. That’s why he’s still hanging on to my ballot. But examining his career, I’m very disturbed by the fact that Beckley not only didn’t have any kind of a peak in his league, but that he never even stood out on his own team. He remains the one big problem child in my career-oriented voting pattern.
13)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Still hanging on until a flood of new guys comes in. Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
14)Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
I’m relying very heavily on Chris Cobb’s projections, which demonstrate a substantial peak. He also does well in James Vail’s standard deviation scores. The Negro League pitchers are very hard to get a handle on, and I will certainly revisit this matter again.
15)Carl William Mays
Just edges out Griffith & Kiner to claw his way back onto the ballot. A gentler career arc than that of Ferrell, higher highs than Willis. Pitchers really challenge my notion of a great career. Carl probably shouldn’t get used to being this high up.


Other Top 10 Finishers
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
I’ve tried to come around to the notion that Hughie belongs, but I – what? He got elected? Seriously? No, come on, seriously. Really? Hmm. Weird.
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
Ferrell continues to fall upwards in my estimation, but still not high enough. Ferrell’s thing is that his career isn’t long enough and his peak isn’t high enough. He falls short on both counts. So he remains off my ballot.
Clark Calvin Griffith
Inching closer and closer. If we clear out the backlog, he just might have a shot.
   20. Rusty Priske Posted: September 27, 2005 at 06:14 PM (#1646071)
PHoM: Billy Herman

1. Red Ruffing (1,4,2)

Tops my list for the second year running.

2. Joe Medwick (8,8,5)

I have wavered somewhat on him. Currently I think he is a little underrated.

3. George Van Haltren (4,5,4)

Poor George.

4. Willard Brown (6,7,1)

Overlooked.

5. Jake Beckley (2,3,7)

Jennings got in and Backley is still out?? (All right, personal bias showing...)

6. Eppa Rixey (3,6,11)
7. Cool Papa Bell (7,10,10)
8. Biz Mackey

Solid candidates, but lagging in popularity.

9. Mickey Welch (5,1,6)

GVH mkII.

10. George Sisler (10,11,12)

I'm not as big a fan as some are, but it wouldn't bother me at all if he got in soon.

11. Tommy Leach (11,14,13)

GVH Jr.

12. Dobie Moore (12,12,15)

Hanging around.

13. Hugh DUffy (x,x,14)

Returns after a two year absence.

14. Edd Roush (13,x,x)

Holding on.

15. Earl Averill (x,x,x)

I believe this is the first time he has snuck onto my ballot.

16-20. Rice, Griffith, Childs, Powell, Monroe
21-25. Sewell, Trouppe, Doerr, Ryan, H.Smith
26-30. Streeter, White, Mullane, Strong, Gleason
   21. DavidFoss Posted: September 27, 2005 at 06:19 PM (#1646088)
I have to go to a wedding. Namely, mine.

Congrats to SWW and the future Mrs. SWW! :-)
   22. Mike Webber Posted: September 27, 2005 at 06:51 PM (#1646196)
I use Win Shares, career first, bonus for peak, and try to balance out the positions a little.

1)EDD ROUSH –314 win shares, with a couple of missing seasons. Of all the tightly bunched outfield candidates, I think he is a whisper ahead.
2)JOE MEDWICK – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified
3)EARL AVERILL – The PCL credit makes his total career value about the same as Roush and Medwick, so I break the tie with big seasons. I’d say Roush and Medwick’s big seasons were just a little bit bigger.
4)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified.
5)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Huge career value, decided that there is too much here to ignore. One of the candidates that makes me wish I’d have gotten in on the party sooner.
6)COOL PAPA BELL – less confident of this placement than any other on my ballot.
7)RED RUFFING – About the same as Rixey, however I think his weak peak is more the norm for his era than Rixey.
8)EPPA RIXEY -
9)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list, I am going to put him ahead of Mays, because his peak numbers are more unique a decade after Mays.
10)RALPH KINER – I am conservatively placing him here, I could see an argument to place him ahead of any except my top three.
11)CARL MAYS – With additional emphasis on total career and less on peak, I slide him behind the Ruffing/Rixey combo.
12)BOBBY DOERR – War credit penalty may not be docking him enough.
13)GEORGE SISLER – I know he played in the American Association following his AL days, but am not sure of how much or how long. Does anyone have Daguerreotypes that shows how much.
14)ROGER BRESNAHAN –Best catcher between Ewing and Hartnett.
15)JOE SEWELL - Best shortstop on the board, here at 15 but really just barely ahead of Stephens.

16-30 Mendez, Gordon, Berger, Dean, Traynor, Elliot, Warneke, Lazzeri, H. Wilson, Waddell, Schang, Redding, Duffy, Doyle, V Stephens.

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang, Griffith – 41th.
Pee Wee Butts is interesting, but I’d guess comfortably behind Moore and Lundy.
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: September 27, 2005 at 07:02 PM (#1646230)
A little birdie told me that Earl Averill has already made 2 ballots for the first time!
   24. Mark Donelson Posted: September 27, 2005 at 09:05 PM (#1646611)
1961 ballot.

I finally came up with a (retroactive) pHOM, so I get to add those notations this year. My first official PHOM inductee becomes…Vic Willis?

1. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I appear to be his best friend. His peak still just edges out Ferrell’s for me by a nose, but it’s incredibly close between them.

2. Wes Ferrell (pHOM 1945). Another great pitching peak. Dr. Chaleeko’s analysis on the discussion thread almost convinced me to elevate him above Waddell, but then I realized the criteria there were very different from mine!

3. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932).With Jennings elected, the best peak position player still out there.

4. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). He jumps Sisler, thanks to my decision to elevate nearly all my pitchers slightly (see below).

5. George Sisler (pHOM 1939). Immensely overrated historically, but still a great hitter. Just outer-circle, not inner.

6. Joe Medwick (pHOM 1958). The great peak is enough.

7. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Still my favorite among the CF glut.

8. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another nice peak infielder.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). The prime beneficiary of my new emphasis on pitchers. Great peak, quite underrated, I think.

[9a. Dazzy Vance. About to join my pHOM any minute now, but I like Willis a bit better.]

10. Ralph Kiner. After all the debate, I leave him where he was on my prelim. I was almost convinced to drop him a bit, but then couldn’t find anyone below him I felt was better, so here he stays. In the end, he still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

11. Willard Brown. Great offensive player, even without any walks.

12. Ed Williamson (PHOM 1931). By far the best of the remaining 3Bs.

13. Earl Averill. I’m still not convinced he was better than Sisler or Medwick (or Kiner or Brown), at least in terms of his peak, but he was good enough for long enough to stay on my ballot.

14. Quincy Trouppe. Takes over the lead among my catcher candidates (see below).

15. Bucky Walters. Another pitcher with a nice peak, and another beneficiary of my pitcher elevations this year.

16-20: Keller, Gordon, Berger, Mackey, Doyle
21-25: Bresnahan, McCormick, C. Jones, Doerr, Dean
26-30: Wilson, Oms, Browning, Redding, Cicotte
31-35: Poles, Leach, Roush, Cravath, Chance
36-40: Mays, Ryan, Burns, Dunlap, Pesky
41-45: Welch, Van Haltren, Griffith, Veach, B. Johnson
46-50: Grimes, Joss, Stephens, [W. Foster], Matlock, [W. Wells], [Keeler], F. Jones
   25. Mark Donelson Posted: September 27, 2005 at 09:07 PM (#1646618)
EXPLANATIONS:

I managed to come up with some answers to most of the questions I posed myself on the prelim, and some of the other discussions there also caused some changes.

• Most notable (macro division): I was convinced by Chris’s argument that we need more pitchers, and my pHOM tabulations came up even shorter on them than the real HOM is (Keefe, Vance, Willie Foster, Lyons, and Faber aren’t in my PHOM, while only non-HOMers Waddell, Ferrell, and Méndez are). Accordingly, I boosted nearly all my pitchers, though the second (third) look at pitchers also turned up a handful of people I felt I had too high.

• Most notable (micro division): I’m still not confident re Mackey vs. Trouppe—but I realized this time that if I’m going to be consistent with the way I’ve evaluated other situations like this, I need to make a change. As I said last ballot, I was putting Mackey at the top of my catcher list mostly on reputation, since the numbers pointed to Trouppe being better, especially to a peak voter. The problem is, I wasn’t doing anything of the kind with other NeL stars whose numbers showed them to be worse than their reputation (Bell, Dandridge). This left me with two choices—go against the numbers with them as well, or go with them on Mackey. I went with the numbers, and Mackey drops off ballot.

• The similarities between Kiner and Keller, and my feeling that Kiner deserves a place on the ballot, made it necessary for me to elevate Keller a bit. He would have made the ballot as well if not for the pitching boosts (Walters got his spot). I’m still a little worried I have Kiner too high, actually.

• I had Charley Jones and Browning too low, but I’m not convinced (yet) it was by that much. They move up a bit (particularly Jones, who still looks better to me), but not to the ballot.

• I had Pesky (and the newbie Stephens) too low as well, and they move into my top 50.

•I still have no idea how to gauge Coimbre’s and Cepeda’s value, and until I get one, they remain outside my top 50.

• Oms didn’t benefit much from my new look at him. He was better than Poles, but his argument seems more of a career one than a peak one, and thus isn’t that appealing to me.

REQUIRED DISCLOSURES:

Ruffing: At this point, just saying “I’m an extreme peak voter” should be enough. He’s not in my top 50.

Mackey: See above. He’s dropped to #19.

Griffith: I like him better than Rixey and Ruffing, but he only has limited appeal to a peak voter. He rose slightly with the other pitchers, but that still leaves him at #43.

Rixey: Better than Ruffing, worse than Griffith, and definitely not my kind of candidate because of the lack of peak. He’s not in my top 50.

New candidates: Other than Kiner and Stephens, none are even close to my top 50, with Butts probably closest (but still quite far).
   26. dan b Posted: September 28, 2005 at 12:44 AM (#1647353)
Seems strange not voting for Hughie Jennings who entered my PHoM as a shiny new toy in 1908.

1.Kiner This might jeopardize my standing among the consensus score leaders, but sometimes you have to ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Join me for a Pirates game at PNC Park and I will show you the partial statue erected in Kiner’s honor – it might be the only thing about the park that could have been done better.
2.Medwick PHoM 1956. Lots of peak value, career value not shabby.
3.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
4.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
5.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s still underrepresented.
6.Averill More WS over 10 consecutive years than any other ML player on the ballot. PHoM 1960.
7.Ferrell Tweaking my system to favor peak over career in evaluating pitchers moves Ferrell up.
8.Brown, Willard
9.Leach PHoM 1926.
10.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
11.Cravath Would be in my PHoM had the mle’s been available back in the early 30’s.
12.Ruffing Or should Rixey be just ahead of Ruffing?
13.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
14.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
15.Walters See Ferrell.
16.Poles PHoM 1929.
17.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
18.W. Cooper Of pitchers whose career began after 1910 and are now eligible for our consideration, Cooper has more WS over 10 consecutive seasons than any pitcher except Alexander, Grove and Hubbell. PHoM 1942.
19. Mays I still like him better than Vance or Faber.
20.Roush PHoM 1942.
   27. Cblau Posted: September 28, 2005 at 01:43 AM (#1647599)
Posted by Mark Donelson

# 46-50: Grimes, Joss, Stephens, [W. Foster], Matlock, [W. Wells], [Keeler], F. Jones


Do you have something against players named Willie? Does Mays have a chance with you? ;^)
   28. Rick A. Posted: September 28, 2005 at 02:12 AM (#1647789)
PHOM
Cupid Childs

1961 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1958.
7.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1960
8.Cupid Childs – Slightly better than Herman. Elected PHOM in 1961
9.Burleigh Grimes – Moves up a little. Higher peak than Rixey.
10.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
11.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
12.Earl Averill - Decided to give minor league credit.
13.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings..
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
15.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation.

New Candidates
Ralph Kiner These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Just misses my ballot
Vern Stephens - Not too far from Boudreau but closer to Gordon and Doyle than Boudreau.

Required Disclosure
Joe Medwick and George Sisler - Both just miss my ballot
Red Ruffing and Eppa Rixey - Both pitchers took a hit with my new emphasis on peak value
Clark Griffith - Just never ranked well in my system.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Sisler, Medwick, Kiner, Dean, Bell
21-25 Brown, Bresnahan, Oms, Roush, Cooper
26-30 Mays, Johnson, Waddell, Leach, McGraw
31-35 Ruffing, Cravath, Keller, Elliott, Schang
36-40 Easter, Stephens, Gordon, Doyle, Poles
41-45 Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr, F. Jones, Van Haltren
46-50 Rixey, Taylor, Trouppe, Wilson, Fournier
   29. Rick A. Posted: September 28, 2005 at 02:13 AM (#1647798)
PHOM
Cupid Childs

1961 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1958.
7.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1960
8.Cupid Childs – Slightly better than Herman. Elected PHOM in 1961
9.Burleigh Grimes – Moves up a little. Higher peak than Rixey.
10.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
11.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
12.Earl Averill - Decided to give minor league credit.
13.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings..
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
15.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation.

New Candidates
Ralph Kiner These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Just misses my ballot
Vern Stephens - Not too far from Boudreau but closer to Gordon and Doyle than Boudreau.

Required Disclosure
Joe Medwick and George Sisler - Both just miss my ballot
Red Ruffing and Eppa Rixey - Both pitchers took a hit with my new emphasis on peak value
Clark Griffith - Just never ranked well in my system.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Sisler, Medwick, Kiner, Dean, Bell
21-25 Brown, Bresnahan, Oms, Roush, Cooper
26-30 Mays, Johnson, Waddell, Leach, McGraw
31-35 Ruffing, Cravath, Keller, Elliott, Schang
36-40 Easter, Stephens, Gordon, Doyle, Poles
41-45 Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr, F. Jones, Van Haltren
46-50 Rixey, Taylor, Trouppe, Wilson, Fournier
   30. Rick A. Posted: September 28, 2005 at 02:15 AM (#1647810)
PHOM
Cupid Childs

1961 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1958.
7.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1960
8.Cupid Childs – Slightly better than Herman. Elected PHOM in 1961
9.Burleigh Grimes – Moves up a little. Higher peak than Rixey.
10.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
11.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
12.Earl Averill - Decided to give minor league credit.
13.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings..
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
15.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation.

New Candidates
Ralph Kiner These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Just misses my ballot
Vern Stephens - Not too far from Boudreau but closer to Gordon and Doyle than Boudreau.

Required Disclosure
Joe Medwick and George Sisler - Both just miss my ballot
Red Ruffing and Eppa Rixey - Both pitchers took a hit with my new emphasis on peak value
Clark Griffith - Just never ranked well in my system.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Sisler, Medwick, Kiner, Dean, Bell
21-25 Brown, Bresnahan, Oms, Roush, Cooper
26-30 Mays, Johnson, Waddell, Leach, McGraw
31-35 Ruffing, Cravath, Keller, Elliott, Schang
36-40 Easter, Stephens, Gordon, Doyle, Poles
41-45 Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr, F. Jones, Van Haltren
46-50 Rixey, Taylor, Trouppe, Wilson, Fournier
   31. Rick A. Posted: September 28, 2005 at 02:16 AM (#1647813)
Oops. Sorry for the triple post
   32. Rob_Wood Posted: September 28, 2005 at 04:55 AM (#1648100)
My 1961 ballot:

1. Bobby Doerr - I'm still convinced he's the best
2. Jake Beckley - his time is nigh
3. George Van Haltren - 1890s star CF (&P)
4. Red Ruffing - Yankee star hurler
5. Earl Averill - star CFer
6. Joe Gordon - great fielding second sacker
7. Ralph Kiner - here's the spot for Kiner
8. Bob Johnson - better than medwick
9. Tommy Bridges - I like him with wwii and pcl
10. Willard Brown - hard to know where he belongs
11. Bob Elliott - very good third baseman
12. Joe Medwick - high peak, good career
13. Eppa Rixey - steady career
14. George Sisler - review moves him up a bit
15. Cupid Childs - 1890s star second baseman

16-20: Joe Sewell, Clark Griffith, Edd Roush, Charlie Keller, Wes Ferrell

Not on my ballot: Wes Ferrell (see above), Clark Griffith (ditto), Biz Mackey (way off ballot).
   33. Sean Gilman Posted: September 28, 2005 at 08:16 AM (#1648146)
1961

1. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares. According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. How big is your AA discount? (1927)

2. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

4. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

5. Clark Griffith (6)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

6. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares. (1945)

7. George Sisler (8)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position. (1958)

8. Cool Papa Bell (9)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak. (1960)

9. Eppa Rixey (10)--Griffith’s got a big edge in peak, and his career value doesn’t make up the difference. It does give him the edge over the short/career/high peak pitchers though. (1960)

10. Hugh Duffy (24)-- Reshuffled the bottom of the ballot this year in an attempt to break up the gluts that were forming with infielders pitchers and outfielders. Duffy makes the biggest jump as he returns to the spot at the middle of my ballot he left years and years ago.

11. Carl Mays (16)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell.

12. George Van Haltren (25)--Another 1890s outfielder returns to my ballot.

13. Wes Ferrell (18)--Great peak, just wish it lasted longer.

14. Biz Mackey (26)--Another beneficiary of the backlog reshuffling. If the translations are underrating his peak, like they probably do, then he’s gotta be a clear choice over Bresnahan.

15. Willard Brown (29)--Was definitely underrating him. Very comparable to Oms and Roush, but a little bit better.

16. Joe Sewell (12)
17. Edd Roush (27)
18. Alejandro Oms (28)
19. Red Ruffing (17)
20. Vern Stephens (20)
21. Roger Bresnahan (22)
22. Earl Averill (29)
23. Joe Medwick (31)
24. Bob Elliott (13)
25. Ed Williamson (14)
26. Jose Mendez (15)
27. Bobby Doerr (19)
28. Dave Bancroft (20)
29. Ralph Kiner (-)
30. Wally Berger (35)
   34. yest Posted: September 28, 2005 at 01:51 PM (#1648256)
I know he played in the American Association following his AL days, but am not sure of how much or how long. Does anyone have Daguerreotypes that shows how much.

I posted a link on the Sisler site that talks abought his minor leauge career
   35. yest Posted: September 28, 2005 at 02:05 PM (#1648282)
1961 ballot
Kiner makes my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
13. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
14. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
15. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
16. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
17. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
18. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (makes my personal HoM this year)
19. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
28. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
29. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
30. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice
33. Alejandro Oms the recent discussion put him here
34. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is just off my ballot
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot
   36. Jim Sp Posted: September 28, 2005 at 07:41 PM (#1649005)
Gordon, Stephens, Doerr, Billy Herman, Sewell and Elliott are all basically tied. IMHO all are above the line. From 1948 to 1962 an abnormally high number of good 2B and SS candidates hit the ballot. My reading is that this is just something that happened, they’re turning double plays at a high rate so I’m keeping them at the top of my ballot.

Stephens #5. Kiner #18, basically tied with Keller at #17.

1)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while. PHoM in 1948.
2)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
3)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
5)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
6)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
7)Medwick-- PHoM in 1960.
8)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
9)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
10)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
11)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
12)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
13)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
14)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career. PHoM in 1939.
15)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters. PHoM in 1916.

Ruffing#19.
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #26.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
   37. Adam Schafer Posted: September 28, 2005 at 07:57 PM (#1649042)
1. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back

then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this

since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got

elected) on the same team pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching

categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

2. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push

him up this high on my ballot.

3. Earl Averill - I've kept Averill low, but now feel I haven't been giving him adequate PCL credit.

4. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

5. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

6. Wes Ferrell - Good peak, and just enough career to make me like him

7. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

8. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman.

9. Red Ruffing - Did he pitch for good teams? Absolutely. That's not his fault.

10. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a

dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

11. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

12. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

13. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

14. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

15. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away. I did decide to move him up quite a

bit, but I also felt the need to move Schang and Rixey down on my ballot after taking another look at them (yet again).

Schang, Rixey, Bresnahan and Gordon are all just off of my ballot right now. Kiner doesn't cut it for me. Great homerun hitter though.
   38. Howie Menckel Posted: September 29, 2005 at 02:36 AM (#1650656)
1961 ballot, our 64th

Recent discussions have further convinced me that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I like to think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

Giant headaches at work this week, so I ain't gonna find any more time 'til Monday. Here goes.

1. EPPA RIXEY - Maybe his best friend. Matches Ruffing in top 3-4 years except for hitting credit; then slowly but surely maintains an advantage throughout straight-up comparisons. A little WW I credit as well. Am comfortable putting Eppa in an 'elect me' slot.
2. JAKE BECKLEY - His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Amazing. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelecteds from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted.
3. GEORGE SISLER - The comparison with Medwick in the ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument that his best season was better than George's, but it's debatable and too many voters are using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
4. CLARK GRIFFITH - Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
5. RED RUFFING - Have warmed up a bit. A little WW II credit helps, and he really racked up the innings.
6. CUPID CHILDS - I discount the crap out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven 120 OPS+s here. A full-length career for this brutal era is darn impressive.
7. PETE BROWNING - Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Would be No. 1 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
8. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than Medwick; I like mashers like this, and a little war credit.
9. WES FERRELL - Close call, but the mighty bat and the high volume of innings in peak years gets it done. Not Newhouser-esque, though.
10. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of career shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that.
11. COOL PAPA BELL - Allowing for park and steals leading him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd be in the HOM a decade ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
12. EARL AVERILL - Flipflops with Medwick this year. I think most OF fielding can be overrated, but he's one who really does deserve extra credit. Maybe best case yet for minor-league credit.
13. JOE MEDWICK - Helped a little by a recent review. Very nice 5, 8 10-year numbers.
14. BOB ELLIOTT - Slots in a little below where I had Hack; I guess others don't do the same. Seven seasons with 123 or better OPS+ as a 3B, ok two are war discount. 124 OPS+ in 8190 PA, mostly as a 3B. Would move up if Ps weren't so underrepresented.
15. MICKEY WELCH - Bulls his way back onto the ballot. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance wasn't there.


OTHERS CONSIDERED CLOSELY
JOSE MENDEZ - Guessing that the Reuschel comparison doesn't do him justice; the Hershiser one might. Hitting credit, but I wish he had pitched more documented innings.
JOE GORDON - Was 14th a few yrs ago. A bit underrated, another with seven years of 120 OPS+ if you give him one for the war.

TOP 10 RETURNEE
BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread - Sisler, one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career; McGuire, played forever as a C but not always that often, or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others.

NEWBIE
VERN STEPHENS - Maybe two good seasons short of getting a vote. Was on the right path, but didn't last long enough.

Next year's 'closer look' candidate: Gavy Cravath.
   39. Trevor P. Posted: September 29, 2005 at 03:17 AM (#1650718)
1) George Van Haltren (2). Consolidated league. Long career. OPS+ above 120, tilting slightly in the OBP direction. Played CF. Pitched. Could steal a base. Top-ten in triples seven times. Lots of little stuff that, put together, makes a HOMer.
2) Eppa Rixey (3). Of eligible pitchers, only Mickey Welch has more innings pitched and an ERA+ over 110. And don't forget about WW1 credit.
3) Jake Beckley (4). 125 OPS+ in 10,000 AB when adjusted to a 154-game schedule. Was mentally forgetting that he, like GVH, played in the one-league 1890s.
4) Earl Averill (5). I really found the Averill-Medwick-Sisler-Johnson comparisons on the discussion thread insightful, and feel that Averill - even if I’m not the biggest fan of minor league credit - should’ve been placing higher than he was.
5)Red Ruffing (6). Have decided WARP3 is overrating his hitting contributions. He's still the type of player I like, though not as much as when he first debuted.
6) Quincy Trouppe (10). Moved him back up, and have decided he’s the best available catcher. Higher estimated in-season innings than Schang, which isn’t a big thing for a career voter like myself, but it separates the two.
7) Bob Elliott (7). Like Medwick/Johnson, the Hack/Elliott comparison is one more reason I hesitate to use win shares exclusively. Offensively they look about equal, with Elliott having a stronger peak. Defensively, Elliott's OF play (although not terrible by any account I've read) means he's slotting in at #8 whereas Hack made it to #2 on my ballot.
8) Edd Roush (8). I apparently love centerfielders. Even playing in a weak league, he posted some strong stats, and being a career voter I think I care less about whether he always played full seasons as long as the overall numbers are there.
9) Cupid Childs (13). Best available 2B. Played in an era that was much more perilous for middle IF, leaving me unimpressed with Doerr, Gordon, et al.
10) Cannonball Dick Redding (9). I don’t think he’s that far off from Paige, and he sure blows Leon Day out of the water. Second best NeL pitcher after Smokey Joe Williams counts for enough to offset the estimated 115 ERA+ in about 3,600 innings, which otherwise would concern me more.
11) Wally Schang (11). Dropped down in favor of Trouppe. Still think we’re placing too much importance on his in-season stats and not looking at the overall picture. He was a catcher, after all!
12) Jimmy Ryan (12). Drops with the elevation of Averill, Roush, and Redding, but I still feel he’s worthy. Garnered more votes than GVH, once upon a time.
13) Alejandro Oms (14). OPS+ is better than GVH, though he played more corner outfield and against lesser opponents.
14) Tommy Bridges (15). Last week the #15 spot came down to an epic battle between five pitchers: Bridges, Ferrell, Cicotte, and Walters. I'll take the guy with 201 career PRAA - of the others, only Walters comes within 40. Shame Bridges didn't pitch more innings in his top seasons.
15) George Sisler (new). This week, the #15 spot goes to a 1B who put up a 124 OPS+ in over 9,000 plate appearances. WARP might be overestimating his defensive decline, in my mind.

Omissions:
Mackey: Third in my catcher consideration set. Around #26.
Kiner: I feel as though he deserves a spot, but I have to reconcile that first with my lack of enthusiasm about similar candidates like Pete Browning and Charlie Keller.
Stephens: Probably about #35 or so, as he seems like a lesser Boudreau and I wasn’t crazy about Sweet Lou.
Ferrell: Just off.
Griffith: Just off, part two.
Jennings: Not enoug...oh, umm, never mind.
   40. TomH Posted: September 29, 2005 at 11:38 AM (#1650912)
1961 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Clark Griffith (2) [8]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other eligible player in our backlog.
2-Wes Ferrell (3) [6]
Career ERA of 4.04, but his league/park average ERA was 4.72. Then add in the huge bat.
3-Bucky Walters (4) [27]
Faced strong opponents, didn’t have many gold glovers behind him, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. Hidden greatness – let’s look beyond the surface stats.
4-Joe Sewell (5) [18]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Joe wants all of the voters to learn the Village People song (let’s all do the motions now) R…C…A….P.…it’s fun to talk about the R….C….A….P…!
5-George Van Haltren (6) [12]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
6-Red Ruffing (7) [5]
Eppa Rixey, plus he could hit. Nice World Series stats.
7-Cool Papa Bell (8) [11]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer. Our MLEs may understate Bell’s real value.
8-Earl Averill (10) [4]
A bit of credit for his PCL yrs. Compared to GVH, hit a bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch.
9-John McGraw (11) [40]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
10-Joe Gordon (12) [24]
Well, now that I have his Win Share rate correct, he’s on my ballot.
11-Eppa Rixey (13) [9]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?
12-Biz Mackey (9) [7]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
13-Willard Brown (14) [16]
Looks like a very good comp for Averill (almost).
14-Frank Chance (15) [a big jump all the way to #69 last week!]
Peerless leader. Managing may have Cost him playing time. A key cog on some dominant teams, and played well in many World Series. Probably more valuable defensively than most systems credit him for.
15-Beckley (off) [13]
He finally bubbles up on to my ballot.

---------------------
tentative 16-20: Sisler, Childs, Medwick, Monroe, Kiner or Doerr

Ducky and Sisler are consensus top10-ers, but I suppose that’s due to my valuing ‘peak’ less than most other voters. Also that I put little stock in Sisler’s great rep, in that I believe it was biased by the old-timers’ love for batting average.

Kiner: tough call. 7 consec HR titles, leads in OPS+ a few times, consensus top 100 player by other historians/polls. But….poor defense, and Branch Rickey, an awfully wise baseball man, didn’t think much of him at all. Stands only a little bit higher than many other poor-fielding mashers with about as many seasons.

Others in my top 40:
Pie Traynor …Fine player, fine rep; could he have played shortstop?
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Bobby Doerr ….a lot like Gordon
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Roger Bresnahan ...Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Dobie Moore …peak/prime shortstop
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
Alejandro Oms … another fine NegL Ofer
Vern Stephens … good but not great
   41. Chris Cobb Posted: September 29, 2005 at 12:32 PM (#1650926)
TomH,

Here's a question about your assessmet of Walters I've been meaning to ask you for a while now:

3-Bucky Walters (4) [27]
Faced strong opponents, didn’t have many gold glovers behind him, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. Hidden greatness – let’s look beyond the surface stats.


It's the "gold-glovers" comment I'm wondering about. It's my understanding that the Bill McKechnie Reds of 1938-1944, during Walters' peak, were generally excellent defensively. Bill James in the NBJHBA certainly describes the team that way in his comments on Eddie Joost: "Bil McKechnie was glove-crazy; he didn't care what a guy hit, if his glove was good enough . . . the Reds stopped winning, as McKechnie's mania for defense strayed over the line of diminishing returns."

My own studies of defensive efficiency corroborate James' anecdotal evidence: Using RSI and batting win shares, I have Walters at 24.5 wins above average before adjusting for defensive support, and at 18.1 wins above average after adjusting for defense. That's a big reason why I see Walters as a borderline candidate rather than a top candidate now.

Do you see the Reds' defense differently?
   42. TomH Posted: September 29, 2005 at 01:47 PM (#1650993)
Chris, agree. I'll re-look at Walters.

Yes, Cinci had a GREAT defense, which benefited Bucky and others.

However, the Phils' D when Walters was with them was even WORSE than the Reds was good.

The BP cards show Walter's ERA was hurt by about 0.40 per year when with Philly. But since he spent more time with the Reds, overall he comes out O.K.

Here are the BP "Translated Stats" for a few pitchers:
pithcer career IP *ERA*
Walters. 3065 .....3.62
Ferrell. 2569 .....3.63
Ruffing* 3200 .....3.74

With Ruffing I threw out his Boston years (all poor). These guys all look similar, altho of course Wes could really hit.
   43. Al Peterson Posted: September 29, 2005 at 02:20 PM (#1651018)
1961 ballot. The newest folks don’t excite me all that much so we’ve got some moving up to do for the leftovers. I’m OF heavy but I think they are worthy.

1. Joe Medwick (2). I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

2. Earl Averill (3). Highly productive for a centerfielder, he started ML career late after playing semi-pro in Washington state and then three years in the PCL. By comparison to Bob Johnson, Averill had teams which outperformed Pythag W-L by 18 games (1929-39).

3. Clark Griffith (4). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

4. Bob Johnson (5). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

5. Dick Redding (6). Pitched in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

6. Bobby Doerr (7). Herman’s election now gives a comp in the HOM.

7. Red Ruffing (8). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey is right around here also but a little lower.

8. Jimmy Ryan (9). Quality OF for extended time period.

9. Pete Browning (11). Born hitter, also born with numerous other problems which drag his stock down.

10. Biz Mackey (12). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.
11. Eppa Rixey (13). A nod to tilting my ballot toward pitchers a bit more.

12. Cool Papa Bell (14). I’m going to throw in another outfielder. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

13. George Van Haltren (15). The eternal companion to Jimmy Ryan makes an appearance.

14. Edd Roush (16). Always fighting over more money, he was actually worth those extra dollars.

15. Tony Mullane (19).
Could be any one of a number of gentlemen but “Apollo of the Box” surges back to pick up a ballot spot. A lost cause I’ve voted for in the past.

16-20: Chance, Waddell, Kiner, Berger, Dobie Moore
21-25: Poles, Leach, McGraw, Easter, Keller
26-30: Childs, Byrd, F. Jones, Cicotte, Sewell
31-35: Duffy, D. Leonard, Mendez, Sisler, Bridges
36-40: Veach, Trout, Lundy, Roy Thomas, Willard Brown
41-45: Grimes, Beckley, Hack Wilson, Ben Taylor, Ferrell
46-50: Gordon, Elliott, C. Mays, Trouppe, Griffin

Top Returnees: Ferrell (#44) and Sisler (#34) both are great peak candidates. I tend to do some mixing of peak and career and they come up short.

New guys: Ralph Kiner, for all the prodigious power, didn’t do that long enough. Combined with a lack of other facets to his game leave him just off the top 15. Vern Stephens got a war discount and came in somewhere 60-75 I suppose.
   44. Dolf Lucky Posted: September 29, 2005 at 05:00 PM (#1651364)
1 (2)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

2 (3)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

3 (4)Red Ruffing--Pretty clearly the best pure pitcher available.

4 (5)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

5 (8)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

6 (7)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

7 (6)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

8 (10)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

9 (9)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

10 (11)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

11 (-)Vern Stephens
12 (-)Ralph Kiner--I don't have the greatest handle on these two yet, so they're starting off towards the bottom of the ballot. Actually, Kiner feels right at 12, but Stephens might be a bit overrated. Still, this is where the "system" puts him.

13 (12)Dom DiMaggio--Build in some "appropriate" war credit, and he has the same career value as Boudreau. Limited peak, as he was amazingly consistent.

14 (13)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

15 (14)Joe Gordon--One of the great 'what-if' stories. I give him credit for his war years, but my suspicion is that if there was no war, he'd have been close to a no-brainer.

Dropping out: Willard Brown

Top 10 omissions: Sisler is in the 16-20 group, and could easily return to the ballot. Similar career value to Kiner, and much less peak, so he's not a slam dunk return.

Averill and Griffith are too mired in gluts with several players that look too similar to set them apart.

Rixey lacks the requisite peak; Mackey has been lapped by later and greater catchers.
   45. OCF Posted: September 29, 2005 at 05:19 PM (#1651417)
The way I see it, I think that anyone who likes Stephens ought to also like Pesky - and vice versa. Dolf's ballot fits the criterion.
   46. DanG Posted: September 29, 2005 at 05:22 PM (#1651427)
My #1 and #14 were elected. Peak candidates Ralph Kiner and Vern Stephens lead the class of 1961 (elect 1). The next year, Jackie and Rapid Robert render gray matter superfluous, while Irvin and Rizzuto make their bids. The class of 1963 is led by Campanella, with Kell adding another HOFer to the backlog.

1) Clark Griffith (2,3,2) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

2) George Van Haltren (3,4,3) – I’ve been among his three best friends in recent elections. He held his ground, advancing in the 1890’s queue with Jennings’ election. The 53rd time’s the charm? The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

3) Earl Averill (4,5,4) – Ranks above Roush on durability, strength of league and minor league credit. James ranks them #14-#15 in centerfield.

4) Eppa Rixey (5,6,5) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

5) Wes Ferrell (6,7,6) – Liking him more and more. Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

6) Red Ruffing (7,8,9) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well.

7) Tommy Leach (8,9,8) – Still approaching Lost Cause status; lost ground last election. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Some voters are docking him too severely for league quality. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2100+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins
9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler
11—2122 J. Sheckard

8) George Sisler (9,10,10) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

9) Biz Mackey (10,11,12) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz. This is around my HoM cutoff line.

10) Edd Roush (11,12,11) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Still approaching Lost Cause status. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

11) Joe Medwick (12,13,13) – Good peak/career combo. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting.

12) Jimmy Ryan (13,14,14) – The Ryan express stalled in the third year of his comeback. From zero ballots in 1957, he was named on 5 last election. To those 15 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes.

13) Cool Papa Bell (15,--,--) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Could move up.

14)Roger Bresnahan (--,--,--) – Back after 12 years off. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

15) Bobby Doerr – I looked long and hard at Kiner, but he didn’t quite have the peak to make up for his short career. Doerr over Childs. Similar peaks and hitting, but Doerr was a much better glove and had a longer prime.
   47. Mark Donelson Posted: September 29, 2005 at 05:25 PM (#1651439)
25 ballots so far (I think), 21 different players receiving first-place votes. We are a diverse lot.
   48. Mark Donelson Posted: September 29, 2005 at 05:28 PM (#1651448)
Make that 26 ballots, still 21 players.
   49. Brad G Posted: September 29, 2005 at 08:04 PM (#1651883)
This year the top 10 remain unchanged or fill in the electees' spots, with the exception of Cool Papa sneaking in at the 10 slot. The rest has only minor tweaks... probably the fewest changes I've ever had from one year to the next.

1961 Ballot:

1.Joe Medwick- Career OPS+ = 134, tons of Ink, the one truly great year was enough to boost his peak/prime numbers above his peers.

2.Earl Averil- Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

3.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

4.Bobby Doerr- Career WARP3 = 98.9, Excellent defensive player.

5.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

6.Edd Roush- Nice career, better peak. WS3 = 96 WARP3 = 82.3

7.Tommy Leach- A big benefactor in my latest ratings system… particularly helped by his outstanding defenseive rating.

8.Cupid Childs- Questionable whether he was better than Gordon, but I don’t think he was quite at Doerr’s level.

9.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941. And he only had 6 toes!

10.Cool Papa Bell- I can no longer support having Cool Papa behind Jimmy Ryan. By most subjective accounts, one of the greatest of the Negro Leaguers.

11.Joe Gordon- Excellent fielding 2B. Probably the best 2B of the 1940’s. Moves up slightly.

12.Jimmy Ryan- Ryan still shows prominently in my rankings.

13.Joe Sewell- Yet another nice-hitting, very good defensive SS.

14.Bob Elliott- Hard to pinpoint anything exceptional in Elliott’s career stats, but the numbers are consistently above average. Maybe a little high, but I’m comfortable with this ranking right now.

15.Bucky Walters- WS3 = 102, Black Ink = 48, Gray Ink = 152.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

16.Willard Brown
17.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Not only could he hit (1920 and 1922 being his standout years), but he had speed too, leading the league in SBs four times. Pretty good pitcher as well.
18.Larry Doyle
19.Wes Ferrell- This is actually a four spot jump for Wes.
20.Bingo DeMoss

Biz Mackey, the best of the eligible Catchers, moves up to #22 on my list.
Clark Griffith and Eppa Rixey move up to #32 and #33, respectively. There are so many pitchers I still favor over these two, including Dean, Waddell, Willis, Redding, Cicotte, and Grimes.

Don’t care too much for any of the new crop, though Stephens and Kiner at least show up on the radar. I do prefer Vern to Joe Pesky, though.
   50. OCF Posted: September 30, 2005 at 04:17 AM (#1653366)
1961 ballot.

1. Red Ruffing (4, 4, 2, 3, 1) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
2. Larry Doyle (5, 5, 3, 4, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
3. Ducky Wucky Medwick (6, 6, 4, 5, 4) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
4. George Van Haltren (7, 8, 6, 6, 5) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
5. Eppa Rixey (8, 9, 7, 7, 6) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
6. Ralph Kiner (new) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
7. Wes Ferrell (9, 10, 8, 8, 7) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
8. Joe Sewell (11, 11, 9, 9, 8) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
9. Earl Averill (14, 12, 10, 10, 9) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
10. Jake Beckley (13, 13, 11, 11, 10) Not much peak, long career.
11. Biz Mackey (14, 14, 12, 12, 11) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
12. Jose Mendez (23, 15, 13, 13, 12) A peak-value pitching candidate.
13. Dick Redding (24, 16, 14, 14, 13) A career-value pitching candidate.
14. Bob Elliott (---, 15, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
15. Quincy Trouppe (----, 15) Haven't decided to put him ahead of Mackey - yet.
16. Willard Brown (--, 15, 16, 16) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
17. Hugh Duffy (15, 17, 16, 17, 17)
18. Bucky Walters (17, 19, 18, 19, 18) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
19. Cupid Childs (18, 20, 19, 19, 19) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
20. Joe Gordon (19, 21, 20, 20, 20) Not much to choose from between him and Herman.
21. Tommy Bridges (20, 22, 21, 21, 21) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
22. Cool Papa Bell (21, 23, 22, 22, 22) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
23. Edd Roush (22, 24, 23, 23, 23) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
24. George Sisler (25, 25, 24, 24, 24) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
25. Vern Stephens (new)
26. Bobby Doerr (-, 26, 25, 25, 25)
27. Dobie Moore (--, 26, 26, 26) Short career, high peak.
28. Bob Johnson (26, 27, 27, 27, 27) A late bloomer, excellent hitter, steady career. WWII discount keeps him out of the top 15.
29. Frank Chance (28, 28, 28, 28, 28) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
30. Rube Waddell (29, 29, 29, 29, 29) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.

Johnny Pesky drops out of my top 30.
   51. EricC Posted: September 30, 2005 at 10:28 AM (#1653499)
1961 ballot. It may look like I'm a Yankee fan from this ballot, but I assure you that I'm not so in real life! Pitching is based on ERA+, which is adjusted for a team not facing its own batters. Contemporary position players are compared by Win Shares per plate appearance. Dividing out the plate appearances eliminates most of the advantage that players on good offensive teams get in the WS system because their teammates' play tends to give them more plate appearances.

1. Wally Schang Tremendous career value in his long career, many seasons with > 120 OPS+ as a C. An OBP-heavy OPS, ranking 2nd all time among C in career OBP. Low in-season catcher usage during this era taken into account.

2. Joe Sewell 87.4 WARP3 in 1903 games is arguably a HoM-worthy career, while the number of seasons among the top N players in league is evidence of a HoM-worthy peak. Like with Schang, the answer to AL vs. NL league strength in the 1910s-1920s has a big effect on his all-time standing.

3. Red Ruffing We haven't seen anybody quite like him; a tad below Eddie Plank and a tad above Rixey IMO is the best description. A lower peak than any other pitcher I've voted for so strongly, but his great career length for his era more than makes up for it. More career WS as a Yankee than any other pitcher.

4. Joe Gordon With all the discussion about WWII credit, will it actually make any difference between anybody getting elected or not? Comparisons with the performance of similar players by age suggests that he may have missed out on some great seasons. The downside is that Gordon + war credit may look too much like Sewell for some.

5. Bobby Doerr A great 2B; another player who edges up because of war credit.

6. Earl Averill Top ML CF of the 1930s.

7. Charlie Keller After the discussion, looked at him again, and still like him. Won't make the HoM because injuries curtailed his career, but his prime looks like the real deal to me, as a perennial non-Ted Williams all star and MVP candidate. Had his best seasons in the worst-possible time to be a post-1920 slugger and lost nearly two seasons at his probable peak.

8. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in 2826 IP in the 1930-1943 AL.

9. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.

10. Lefty Gomez With "dominant season" pitcher bonuses, his 2 Cy-Young type seasons help to boost him above the other high-peak short career pitchers. Seems like the type who would be a relief ace if he were playing today.

11. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak.

12. Joe Medwick Played like an inner-circle HoMer for 3 years, but like a non-HoMer the rest of his career.

13. Biz Mackey One of the greatest NeL catchers. Looked at Trouppe again, but still have more confidence in Mackey as a bona fide candidate. As Radcliffe and Petway are also still in the NeL C glut, looking forward to comprehensive NeL statistical data to do a better job of sorting everybody out.

14. Tommy Henrich OK, guess I have some 'splaining to do on this one. Consistently good, and the 2nd best RF to Musial at his late peak. Projecting his career averages over 1800 PA during the WWII years gives around 278 WS at more than 26 per 162. No truly similar player to pin this career to. Comparison with most similar players by age suggests that he may have missed some great years. In Bill James' list of players whose HoF chances were most affected by WWII.

15. Sam Rice I think his league-adjusted career value puts him in HoM territory, though I can understand why there's not a lot of love for singles-hitting right fielders.

Ferrell , Rixey and Griffith were all good enough to have made my ballot in past years.


I sympathize with Sisler 's case. Unlike some other candidates whose ML career was derailed by injury or being stuck in the minors, Sisler was almost certainly on target for a HoM career before his injury. Still, I have to go by what he accomplished, and his peak wasn't quite dominant and long enough for me.

Kiner has peak appeal, but declined suddenly after age 28 due to back problems. A player with few truly similar comparables so far.
   52. favre Posted: September 30, 2005 at 11:48 AM (#1653508)
1.Earl Averill
2.Eppa Rixey

I’m glad to see Averill is getting some more support. Compare him with John Beckwith: Chris/David’s MLE’s put Beckwith at 137 OPS+ in about 8000 PA’s; Earl Averill has a 133 OPS+ in 7200 PA’s. However, Averill also had a couple of great seasons in the PCL at ages 25 and 26, which would bring them pretty close to even. Averill was an outstanding centerfielder, who saved a lot of runs; Beckwith played SS/3B, but does not have a great reputation with the glove. Beckwith projects to somewhere between 315-350 WS; Averill is at 280, but moves into the Beckwith range if you give him some PCL credit.

Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

3.Jake Beckley
4.Wally Schang

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley has thirteen seasons where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher. That's darn impressive for a catcher.

5.Rube Waddell
6.Jose Mendez

I know Waddell allowed an inordinate amount of unearned runs, that his RSI index isn’t impressive, and that he was really, really strange. But his top four ERA+ seasons are 179, 179, 165, and 153, and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine innings as he was posting those.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

7.Alejandro Oms
8.Dobie Moore

I spent some time this week looking at shortstops, and it became pretty clear to me that Moore is the best of the bunch. Not quite the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. He makes my ballot for the first time this year, but I should have had him on a couple of decades ago. Based on his NeL projections, Oms looks a lot like Earl Averill, who is first on my ballot.

9.Cool Papa Bell
10. Tommy Leach

Leach actually has more career WS than any major-league position player on the ballot except for Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Looking back over the years, I’m surprised by how many times I’ve been able to write that. Good hitting, great defense at *two* key positions.

Chris' projections put Bell near 400 WS and 3700 hits. I think we missed the boat on him. I know Max Carey was elected on a strange ballot, but why Carey, and not Bell?

11. Joe Gordon
12. Wes Ferrell
13.Bobby Doerr
14.Ned Williamson
15. Biz Mackey

Gordon and Doerr were very similar players: great D at 2nd, could hit a little. Williamson is still the best third baseman available seventy years after he retired: his main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson has a better peak and considerably more defensive value. Mackey fits well with the good-hitting-excelent-defense-with-long-career crowd.

Ferrell makes my ballot for the first time. I had kept him off for years, but I finally realized its hard to include Waddell, Mendez, and Newhouser on a ballot without putting Ferrell on somewhere.

16.George Sisler
17.Ralph Kiner
18.Gavvy Cravath

These three guys have the same resume: huge peak seasons with short careers that just keep them just off the ballot for now. Kiner’s seasons of 184, 184, and 173 OPS+ really impress me. Cravath makes a big jump up the rankings.

19.Joe Medwick
20.Clark Griffith

Medwick is another OF with a relatively short career, but doesn’t have the peak of the guys in front of him. Griffith was a mainstay on my ballot for years, but in my re-evaluation I decided he doesn’t have the peak or the career of the pitchers in front of him.

21-25: Edd Roush, Cupid Childs, Bob Elliott, Larry Doyle, Dick Redding
26-30: Pete Browning, Mike Tiernan, Quincey Trouppe, Bob Johnson, Vic Willis
31-35: George Van Haltren, Roger Bresnahan, Burleigh Grimes, Red Ruffing, Willard Brown

I think Rixey significnantly better than Ruffing: he pitched for more innings on worse teams with a better ERA+, and that does not take account the time he missed for WWI. Was the jump in Ruffing’s effectiveness from Boston to New York due at least in part to a better defense?
   53. Gadfly Posted: September 30, 2005 at 09:41 PM (#1654847)
1961 BALLOT (Gadfly)

1) Gavy Cravath (A+ Hall of Famer)
2) Willard Brown A+
3) Luke Easter A+
4) Dick ReddingA
5) Cool Papa Bell A
6) Alejandro Oms A
7) Biz Mackey A-
8) Charley Jones B+
9) Rube Waddell B
10) Hugh Duffy B
11) Jose Mendez B-
12) Ben Taylor B-
13) Edd Roush B-
14) Charlie Keller C+
15) Joe Gordon C+

16) Red Ruffing C+
17) Clark Griffith C+
18) Tommy Leach C+
19) Roger Bresnahan C+
20) Joe Medwick C+
21) Pete Browning C+
22) Ralph Kiner C+
23) Eppa Rixey C+
24) George J. Burns C
25) Earl Averill C

As always, I use a Win Share system, basically trying to give equal credit for peak and career length tilted slightly to peak. I adjust upwards for catchers, pitchers after 1920, and Negro League players (who I believe are unfairly downgraded by insuffienct conversion rates). I give extra credit for Minor League performance if the player was obviously of Major League caliber, excluding the first minor league season of major league caliber play.

My system ends up with a numerical grading of the player's career and assigns an A thru F Hall of Fame rating.

Of the best of the new candidates, Ralph Kiner certainly had the peak to get in the Hall of Fame but not the career length and ended up at 22 on my ballot. Number 21 is Pete Browning and the similarities between them are interesting.

Vern Stephens graded out as a C- Hall of Famer and there are tons and tons of guys rated as C or C- Hall of Famers. If my list was complete, I don't know if he would even be in the top 75.

Tommy 'Pee Wee' Butts of the Negro Leagues is a non-candidate. The name makes one think he might have perhaps been comparable to Pee Wee Reese, but electing Butts would be like electing Rey Ordonez to the Hall of Fame. Butts had no bat.

Unfortunately, I still haven't figured out what to do with pre-1893 pitchers and Tony Mullane and Mickey Welch might or might not deserve a place.
   54. OCF Posted: September 30, 2005 at 10:59 PM (#1655066)
Just curious: if the top guys on this particular ballot rate an A+, what grade is available for the likes of Willie Mays or Ted Williams? Not that it matters.
   55. Thane of Bagarth Posted: October 02, 2005 at 01:55 PM (#1657296)
1961 Ballot:

Few changes—basically everybody moves up one. Kiner debuts at #32 and Stephens is all the way down at #70.

1) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (103.3 WARP3, 992 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

2) Bucky Walters
89.6 WARP3, 251 WS. An excellent, underrated pitcher. Similar numbers to Ferrell, but with slightly less peak and more career.

3) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” Even if he was only the third best 1B of the Negro Leagues, he deserves to join the HoM.

4) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

5) Jose Mendez
Possibly better than Redding.

6) Dizzy Trout
87.4 WARP3, 228 WS, Top 5 PRAA/PRAR: 152/447. Here’s a guy where it seems like the war discount you use will greatly affect his placement. I’m ok with the BP discounts, so he comes out high on my ballot.

7) Dutch Leonard
91.9 WARP3, 233 WS. This guy racked up a surprising amount of career value. 956 all-time PRAR ranks second only to Ruffing.

8) Joe Medwick
He’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible player. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

9) George Van Haltren
Clearly HoM-worthy by Win Shares, borderline at best by WARP3…I’ve got him somewhere in-between.

10) Bobby Doerr
With Herman and Boudreau inducted, Doerr moves to the top of the middle infielder heap. In the reverse of the GVH case, Win Shares don’t favor him as much as WARP3.

11) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories made him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor keeps him on the ballot.

12) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Of eligible pitchers, his 5-year PRAR (457) is 2nd only to Dean.

13) Willard Brown
As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

14) Eppa Rixey—WARP1 favors Ruffing by 15% before it makes the timeline adjustment. Win Shares shows them as having almost identical career, rate and peak stats. I consider their war-time absences to be a wash. Incorporating any degree of timeline that deflates Rixey more than Ruffing and Red stands out as the better of the two by either uber-stat.

15) Bobo Newsom—Low peak and a meager OPS+, but some decent career value nonetheless. 81.9 WARP3, 237 WS, 939 PRAR.
------------------------------------------
The Rest of the Top 50

16) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 44.3 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
17) Dizzy Dean—493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. Not much beyond the peak, sort of the anti-Rixey.
18) Pete Browning—Hanging in there, he might just make it back on the ballot.
19) Earl Averill—Solid, consistent major league performer: averaged about 27 WS/year for his 10 full seasons in the majors, never below 22 or above 33 during that span.
20) Spot Poles
21) Alejandro Oms
22) Joe Gordon—Not quite on the Herman/Boudreau/Doerr level.
23) Bill Monroe
24) Rube Waddell
25) Lon Warneke
26) Jimmy Ryan
27) Charlie Keller
28) Tommy Bridges
29) Leon Day—Newest NeL pitcher to make the not-quite-ballotworthy party.
30) Dick Lundy
31) Urban Shocker
32) Ralph Kiner
33) Mel Harder
34) Clark Griffith
35) Paul Derringer
36) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty ever(?)
37) Dominic DiMaggio
38) Ed Ciccotte
39) Dobie Moore
40) Tommy Leach
41) Jack Quinn
42) Ray Dandridge
43) Vic Willis
44) Jim McCormick
45) Bob Johnson
46) Harry Hooper
47) Waite Hoyt
48) Bob Elliott
49) Ed Roush
50) Burleigh Grimes

Remaining Consensus Top 10
53) Biz Mackey—Highest ranked catcher on my list. I’m just not impressed enough by his batting to get him much closer to the ballot.
54) George Sisler—The good part of his career didn’t last long enough for me to rank him higher.
61) Jake Beckley—I’m still not a big fan.
   56. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 02, 2005 at 03:11 PM (#1657332)
I completely agree with the people who have been saying we’re not electing enough pitchers. There’s plenty of pitchers below, but some of them aren’t the “right” ones.

1961 ballot:

1. Red Ruffing: I’ve been wondering for several years if he’ll be doomed by the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams. Obviously not doomed, but it’s touch and go. Career stats aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. Being an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners is a positive in my book. (PHOM 1956)

2. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. Even if the 400+ win shares get reduced to ~350, he’s well ahead of any “glut”. 76th on James’s top 100 of all time, #3 NeL CF. (PHOM 1957)

3. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

4. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

5. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (PHOM 1958)

6. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

7. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

8. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher. Moves up substantially this year.

9. Bobby Doerr: Like Sewell, 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4.

10. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, career edge over Ferrell, pretty good hitter.

11. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Earl, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood.

12. Clark Griffith: Moved back on the ballot a few years ago when the crowd thinned, and hangs in there, moving up. PHOM 1945.

13. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. PHOM 1929.

14. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson). 3 votes for balance on this ballot.

15. Lefty Gomez: Back on the ballot. Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, and I don't see what Ferrell's got (except for a bat) that he doesn't. Goofy's ahead on black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for better teams. I think he had something to do with them being good.

Required disclosures:
Earl Averill: Topnotch OF for most of his career. He’s very close.
Wes Ferrell: Right behind Gomez.

New people:
Ralph Kiner falls into a crowd of short-career dominant sluggers. Close to the ballot, I have him slotted between Averill & Browning.
Vern Stephens drops into a crowd of infielders, could move up.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940).
   57. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2005 at 08:54 PM (#1658165)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).


1) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

2) Alejandro Oms-CF (3): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

3) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (4): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

4) Cupid Childs-2B (5): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

5) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (6): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

6) George Van Haltren-CF/P (7): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

7) Tommy Bridges-P (8): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

8) Jake Beckley-1B (9): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

9) Wally Schang-C (10): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

10) Burleigh Grimes-P (11): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

11) Mickey Welch-P (12): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

12) Pete Browning-CF/LF (13): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

13) Frank Chance-1B/C (14): Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

14) Charley Jones-LF/CF (n/e): Back on my ballot after quite a few elections off it. He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

15) Earl Averill-CF (n/e): First time on my ballot. May deserve to be higher up on my ballot. I have no doubt that he was a superior player to Ducky Medwick, at any rate. Best AL centerfielder for 1929, close in 1930, 1931, 1933, 1934, 1935. Best ML centerfielder for 1932, close in 1934, and 1936.

Medwick, Ruffing, Ferrell, Griffith, Rixey, Mackey, Sisler all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   58. Chris Cobb Posted: October 02, 2005 at 11:26 PM (#1658380)
1961 Ballot

1. Clark Griffith (2). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
2. Eppa Rixey (4). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he is now getting closer to election at last. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close.
3. Wes Ferrell (5). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer to WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century major-league pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM. (Will Bert Blyleven be the second? Ray Brown, of course, is the first twentieth-century pitcher to reach the HoM but not the HoF.)
4.Alejandro Oms (6). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. I think he’s the best outfield candidate eligible. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player. Given the possibility that we are missing a season or two of major-league quality seasons at the beginning of his career, I continue to see Oms as the top outfielder candidate.
5. Red Ruffing. (7) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
6. Biz Mackey (8). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
7. Burleigh Grimes (9). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, as Grimes joins Rixey, Roush, and Cravath as representatives of that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 10 ballot spots.
8. Earl Averill (10). Re-evaluation of major-league outfield candidates boosts Averill significantly. The best combination of hitting, fielding, and durability available among the major-league candidates.
9. Willard Brown (11). Probably the #3 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard. Well-rounded player except for his plate discipline.
10. Joe Gordon (12) I think I’ve been underrating infielders a bit, though I do think we have a notable dearth of top IF candidates at present. Gordon's an eventual HoMer, in my view, a bit better than Doerr, who should also be an eventual HoMer.
11.Bobo Newsom (13). My system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1938 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border. I hope Newsom won’t get passed by without a serious look.
12. Edd Roush (14). Great ballplayer, but lots of time out of the lineup keeps him from being higher. Slips a few spots, but stays on ballot.
13. Gavvy Cravath. (15) Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding keeps him from being higher. WARP’s coolness towards him drops him slightly this time as I try to take a more balanced look at outfield candidates.
14. George Sisler (16). Truly outstanding peak, but outside of that seven-year run he was not generally an above-average player. Slips a bit on reevaluation, but I still would like to see him elected.
15. Jose Mendez . (17) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention. He makes it back onto my ballot sans reevaluation, after a long absence.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Joe Medwick. See #23 below
Cool Papa Bell. See #24 below
George Van Haltren. See #21 below

I like all three of these outfielders pretty well, but they all fall a bit short of my ballot, for very different reasons. I don’t have any real argument with Bell and Van Haltren’s current ranking by the electorate, but I think Medwick is overrated. If he’s elected this year, he wouldn’t be our worst pick by any means, though.
   59. Chris Cobb Posted: October 02, 2005 at 11:29 PM (#1658385)
Off-Ballot

16. Dick Redding. (20) Still paired with Mendez, though the ballot line splits them this year.
17. Ralph Kiner (n/e). He’s above my all-time in-out line but not on my ballot yet. Just ahead of Doerr both among 1940s stars and in my all-time list.
18. Bobby Doerr (24). Brilliant fielder; I’m liking him more now that I see he really was one of the top players of the 1940s.
19. Buzz Arlett. (21) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
20. Rube Waddell (22). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, Waddell seems well ahead of Joss and Dean.
21. George Van Haltren (27). Right on the all-time in/out line for me. If we get deep into the backlog in the next decade, he’ll get back onto my ballot.
22. Tommy Leach (26). Ditto.
23. Joe Medwick. (25). Fuller analysis shuffles the outfielders above him in my rankings a bit, but leaves me still unenthusiastic about his candidacy. He isn’t obviously unqualified, but his main distinguishing feature is his peak according to win shares, and i think it’s overrated. I’d take Oms, Averill, Brown, Roush, Cravath, Arlett, Van Haltren, and Leach first. Sadly, many of those more deserving players may never be elected. Time will tell.
24. Cool Papa Bell (28). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville. Note to self: Bell really needs a new study now that a lot more MeL data is available.
25. Bill Byrd (28). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher. He enters the ballot with contemporary Mel Harder, whom he betters, in my view, by a small amount, mostly on peak.
26. Rabbit Maranville. (30) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
27. Bucky Walters. (30) Chris J.’s RSIs move Walters ahead of Trout. Pitchers have more responsibility than other players to have their wins match their RS/RA ratio.
28. Leroy Matlock (31). A a very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
29. Larry Doyle (33). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
30. Spotswood Poles (34). Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
31. Bob Elliott</b> . Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. The slope of the rankings is close to flat once one passes 25, so a small change in my view of Elliott could jump him up a long way. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I can’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now. The lower end of the 1940s group—Doerr, Byrd, Walters, Elliott, Trouppe, Keller, D. Dimaggio—is really hard to figure out.
32. Mickey Welch. (37) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again. This ballot is unbelievably deep.
33. Carl Mays. (35) Wes Ferrell lite.
34. Urban Shocker. (36) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
35. Bob Johnson (66). Finally got around to jumping him up this year. Career value is better than Medwick’s, I think, but even WARP1 agrees that his peak and prime trail that of his similar contemporaries Medwick and Averill. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but he’s close.
36. Hugh Duffy. (38) Another guy whom I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now nearly down to 40 in the rankings. Youch!
37. Jimmy Ryan
38. Roger Bresnahan
39. Wally Schang
40. Quincy Trouppe (41). I’ve started to do serious work on Trouppe this year, and he continues to look a lot like Schang/Bresnahan. Qualitatively, he seems a lot like Schang: a catcher who was a very good hitter and a solid but unspectacular defender who could play 3rd base if needed. If he had a great defensive reputation, he might be ballot-worthy, but to my knowledge he does not.

41-45. Cupid Childs, George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller, Charley Jones
46-50. Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley, Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell, Dick Lundy
51-55. Mel Harder, Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper, Johnny Pesky
56-60. Lave Cross, Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Bobby Veach
61-65. Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson, Tommy Bond
66-70. Vern Stephens, Jim McCormick, George J. Burns, Jack Fournier, Bruce Petway
71-75. Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning
76-80. Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance, Leon Day, Tony Mullane
81-85. Hilton Smith, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger

Other notable new arrivals in 1961

Vern Stephens. An excellent hitter for a shortstop, but most of his best years came during the war, his career was short, and he wasn’t great defensively. A very fine player, but not a HoMer, either. He debuts at #66, about half way between Joe Sewell and Dave Bancroft.
   60. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2005 at 11:55 PM (#1658416)
Posted by Arte Johnson on October 02, 2005 at 07:56 PM

The election?

Ver-r-r-ry eenteresting...
   61. Happy Jack Chesbro Posted: October 03, 2005 at 01:55 AM (#1658568)
Ver-r-r-ry eenteresting...

Am I winning?!
   62. Patrick W Posted: October 03, 2005 at 02:12 AM (#1658599)
I see Kiner as equaling Chuck Klein’s career value, more OBP but fewer PA’s. I have no room for either on the ballot right now. Out-of-date comment recycling is in full effect.

1. Red Ruffing (2), N.Y. (A) SP (’25-’47) (1955) – Looks as good as Ted Lyons did.
2. Bobby Doerr (3), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) (1960) – Reaches Boudreau’s career value but takes about 1700 more AB’s (War Adj. Up) to do so. Boudreau’s peak is once again the difference.
3. Bucky Walters (4), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – Dropping Leonard for poor hitting means I have to raise Bucky. So the consensus score is screwed either way.
4. Alejandro Oms (5), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) – I’m worried about the slippery slope here of voting for a non-US based career, but he apparently had great value and did play in the NeL.
5. Willard Brown (6), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) – Very closely ranked to Oms, but Alex gets a bigger boost from peak.
6. Dutch Leonard (7), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – 4 great years before the war, 2 great years after the war, fairly average in between. Dizzy Trout with 500 more IP.
7. Biz Mackey (8), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – He’ll make it in on my ballot someday.
8. Dizzy Trout (9), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) – Trout is causing me to wonder how much credit I should award to PRAA as opposed to PRAR. Looking at translated careers with a 50/50 split, Trout’s pitching value equals that of Ruffing with over 1500+ fewer IP. My peak factor helps Trout out even more. Is a 50/50 split for RAR/RAA fair or is it too much? Maybe Ruffing is elected before this issue is resolved.
9. Joe Gordon (10), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) – I have Sewell being slightly better than Gordon with the glove, and Gordon with every other advantage between the two. It’s a slight advantage in most cases, and it’s not enough to rank Gordon any higher on the ballot than here.
10. Bobo Newsom (11), Wash. – Detr. – St.L (A) SP (’34-’47) – I’m actually kinda glad he made the ballot, because it was quite an ordeal to combine his stats during the 8 years he was traded; all that work didn’t go for naught. Like Leonard, his peak was before the war and he had a reprieve in ’46-’47, but he couldn’t capitalize on the lesser competition in ’42,’43,’45. Looking good for the P-Hall, he’ll never make it in the real thing because we won’t be able to decide on a cap.
11. Joe Sewell (12), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – The great defense of Sewell trumps the modest offense advantage of Hack.
12. Dom DiMaggio (13), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 2nd highest war credit bonus to date (Greenberg).
13. Bob Johnson (14), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
--. Stan Hack, Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) –
14. Joe Medwick (15), St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) – With so many pitchers on the ballot already, I’m worried about not giving full credit to the hitters. With respect to Beckley, the 5 years at +7 W3 and 0.299 EQA (vs. 1 yr. and 0.280) trump the heavy career advantage. This year anyways.
15. Dick Lundy (--), Atlantic Cty (--), SS (’16-’34) – Had fallen off the ballot due to concerns over how much credit I was giving for his fielding value. Could lose this spot to Hoyt, Beckley, Rixey or Ben Taylor next year but this year he appears more worthy than any of them.

Wes Ferrell – He’s under consideration.
Earl Averill – I can’t see Averill making the ballot until I can find room for Charlie Keller first. In reality, they both might end up timeline casualties of the HOM despite numbers that say they are among the top 210+ players of all-time.
Eppa Rixey – Doesn’t appear to be a whole lot different than a dozen other pitchers who have been summarily reject by the voters (Harder, Passeau, Shocker, Warneke, Grimes, …).
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   63. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 03, 2005 at 02:21 AM (#1658612)
Posted by Arte Johnson on October 02, 2005 at 10:21 PM

Am I winning?!


I said eenteresting, not ah-musing!
   64. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 03, 2005 at 03:14 AM (#1658724)
1961 Ballot:

1 Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

2. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

5. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

6. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

7. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

8. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

9. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

10. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

11. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

13. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

14. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

15. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but not enough to get him on the ballot yet.
   65. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 03, 2005 at 04:10 AM (#1658818)
Quick one this week guys as I'm out of town. This line preview thing stinks, have to wait about 30 seconds to see what I typed! Will be a great feature once this fixed.

1. Eppa Rixey (2) - If a few things out of his control were different (like the elimination of WWI), Rixey would likely have won 300 games. A Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Niekro HoMer.

2. Jake Beckley (3) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

3. Red Ruffing (4) - Did very well in my revaluation. I wasn't giving him enough credit for his hitting, and I was underrating his pitching.

4. Gavy Cravath (5) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

5. Luke Easter (6) - This is a conservative ranking (for me anyway, some see it as very liberal I'm sure). There's a case that could be made that if I'm going to rank him at all he should either be #3 or off the ballot. But I think this is fair as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.

6. Ralph Kiner (n/e) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but hit peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.

7. Charley Jones (7) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL.

8. Clark Griffith (8) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity from Griffith? I've dropped Jones and Griffith below the three 1B this time.

9. Joe Medwick (13) - Has to rank ahead of Averill and Roush, at least based on MLB (I'm thinking of Averill's PCL credit). Looking at Kiner made me realize I had Medwick too low.

10. George Van Haltren (9) - He could rank anywhere from 1 to 30, very tough to evaluate.

11. Tommy Leach (10) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

12. Vern Stephens (n/e) - I love shortstop that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Clearly better than Doerr IMO.

13. Bill Monroe (12) - I still really like this guy.

14. Ernie Lombardi (11) - I was convinced that his OPS+ does overstate his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.

15. Biz Mackey (14) - After further review he does appear to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.

Honorable Mention:

16. Cool Papa Bell (15) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?

17. Joe Gordon (16) - Clearly below Herman, clearly above the rest of the 2B pack.

18. Bobby Doerr (17) - Too close to call with Gordon right now.

19. Wally Schang (18) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.

20. Wes Ferrell (19) - Great pitcher (for a few years) and fantastic hitter (for a pitcher). I wish I could get him higher, but I can't say I'd want his career over any of those ranked ahead of him. I think his hitting trumps Harder's career value, but it's close and could go either way.

21. Earl Averill (20) - I still think I'm pegging him too low, but don't see why I should move him higher. How much PCL credit should I be giving him?

22. Bucky Walters (21) - I was underrating him. I took a look at his <a hre="http://runsupportindex.blogspot.com/2004/06/bucky-walters.html">RSI page</a>, he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a very close call. I'm leaving Ferrell ahead for now because two of Walters' big years were during the war, but these two are extremely close.

23. George Sisler (23) - I think it is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.

24. Quincy Trouppe (24) - Didn't realize he was eligible in 1958, thought he was a 1959er, wouldn't have affected the ballot. Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.

25. Bob Elliott (25) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).

26. Burleigh Grimes (26) - Had dropped him out of consideration wrongly. Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.

27. Roger Bresnahan (27) - Somehow got dropped, but is better than many that were in my consideration set. Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.

28. Bob Johnson (28) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.

29. Dom DiMaggio (29) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.

30. Joe Sewell (30) - I'd been underrating him. Most of you were overrating him. We're getting closer to a consensus it appears. Very glad he wasn't rushed in. A little bump this week. The more I think about it, I think I'd take Hughie's career.

31. Johnny Pesky (31) - Basically the same player as Sewell, but not as good defensively.

32. Willard Brown (32) - Tough to peg after considering his incredibly low walk rates.

33. Jimmy Ryan (33) - Career not as impressive as I used to think but still a good player for a long time.

34. Ed Williamson (34) - His up and down saga with me continues.

35. Dick Redding (35) - can't see him as better than Grimes, but he's back on the board.

36. Rube Waddell (36) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.

37. Mike Griffin (37) - a great defensive player. He could hit too. He's been forgotten here . . .

38. Hugh Duffy (38) - not quite as good as the glut above him.

39. Edd Roush (39) - Took a bit of a hit with my re-evaluation.

40. Ben Taylor (40) - had slipped off my radar. He's pretty close to Beckley, but this is a tight ballot.

41. Dobie Moore (41) - Is this too low? Convince me I should have him higher.

42. Dizzy Trout (42) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. I didn't realize he was this good.

43. Mel Harder (43) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.

44. Vic Willis (44) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.

45. Dick Lundy (45) - Back on the radar. Not as good as Sewell.

46. Alejandro Oms (46) - Glad he's been brought back to the forefront, but I can't see ranking him any higher.

47. George Scales (47) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?

48. Charlie Keller (48) - Nice player, but I couldn't put him above Jennings could I? The best I could see him a little above Henrich.

49. Pete Browning (49) - He's on the board again, but I cannot see ranking him over Keller. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation.

50. Cupid Childs (50) - Should at least be back on the radar.

51. Larry Doyle (51) - Ditto.

52. John McGraw (52) - More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.

53. Tommy Henrich (53) - I could see him higher, but don't ever see him elected.

54. Lefty Gomez (54) - Very nice career. Not as nice as Ferrell's. 177-114 RSI record, which is excellent. Too bad he didn't pitch longer.

55. Silvio Garcia (55) - His thread is not very convincing in terms of whether or not I should vote for him. If I'm misinterpreting it, please let me know.

Others:

Jose Mendez - I reconsidered him, but I still see him behind Gomez (I like the Hippo Vaughn comparison on his thread, if that's off, please tell me why), and I don't see the need to go lower with the rankings.

Leon Day - I see him as Bucky Walters minus a year without the peak. If that's an inaccurate assessment, please help me out.

Pee Wee Butts - Just noting him here so I can prove I considered him. Not a serious candidate, unless our hitting assessment of him is way off.
   66. DavidFoss Posted: October 03, 2005 at 04:22 AM (#1658844)
Procrastinating this week, normally I like to vote earlier. I have no idea how the election is going, though. With Jennings inducted, my backlog jumps up one notch. Old favorites are taking four of my five top slots.

Thrilling World Series last year as the Bucs lost three blow-outs but still managed to win a close one. The Stengel era in NY is over and we'll see if Houk can continue to dominate the AL.

Good news on a personal note as the Griffith family is moving the Washington Senators to Minnesota, so I'll have a local team to root for in twenty years or so when I get old enough to realize what's going on. Fitting that old Clark gets my #1 vote this week I guess.

Also, the AL is expanding for the first time since it became a major league. The schedule of 22*7=154 is now becoming 18*9=162. The increased use of air travel should make the extra 8 games easy to fit in (though the planes freaked out 1958 MVP Jackie Jensen enough to cause him to sit out last year), but changing the length of the season for the first time in over fifty years may have consequences. Who knows what records may fall due to the longer season? Also, the confusion it will bring HOM voters cannot be understated. "Is that per 154G or per 162G?" will be an extremely popular question is a few years. HOM voters will get to know their factors of 81/77 or 77/81 (or 1.052 and 0.951).


1961 Ballot

1. Clark Griffith (4) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
2. Larry Doyle (5) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning, but still has a core group of followers. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
3. Cupid Childs (6) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
4. Biz Mackey (7) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
5. John McGraw (8) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
6. Dick Redding (9) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
7. Wes Ferrell (10) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
8. Ralph Kiner (10) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good. Starting him just above Cravath.
9 . Gavvy Cravath (11) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
10. Joe Gordon (12) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
11. Charley Jones (13) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
12. George Sisler (14) -- Welcome back Jorge! Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
13. Roger Bresnahan (15) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
14. Earl Averill (nr) -- Hard guy to judge. Solid ten year prime, but not much else. The best white CF between Cobb/Speaker & Dimaggio, but I don't feel he has the dominance that a short-career outfielder should. Credit for an extra PCL season helps. Returning to the ballot which is a credit to him as I tend to be tough on non-shoo-in outfielders
15. Joe Sewell (12) -- Back to the ballot for Joe. The positional superiors from the later generation have all been inducted.


16-20. BElliott, BJohnson, Ruffing, Medwick, Doerr,
21-25. Rixey, Chance, Lombardi, Beckley, WBrown,
26-30. Browning, Leach, Welch, Moore, VStephens
   67. Andrew M Posted: October 03, 2005 at 04:38 AM (#1658870)
1961 Ballot

Not too much movement at the top this week.

1. (2) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is very impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

2. (3) Earl Averill. Like Griffith, there are better peak candidates and better career candidates, but Averill has some of both. For 10 years, Averill was one of the 3 best AL OFs—probably the best from 1934-36—who could both hit (133 OPS+/.297 EQA) and play A+ quality CF. Averill also has a good argument for receiving 1 and maybe 2 years of PCL credit if one is so inclined. Though he’s not really a peak candidate, his value over a 7-10 year period looks as good as anyone on the ballot.

3. (4) Eppa Rixey. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks ballot-worthy to me.

4. (5) Dobie Moore. Comparable peak at SS to Jennings, but a longer career. At his best, I think Moore may have been as good as any position player on this ballot, and with a few years credit for his army years, his career seems comparable length to Boudreau’s.

5. (6) Larry Doyle. Best hitter of the middle infield glut. His career OPS+ (126) is outstanding for a middle infielder. I favor him slightly over Childs because he played a little longer and over Gordon (and Doerr) because I think his peak was higher—though it’s close if you factor in some type of league discount (which, for various reasons, I don’t do much of.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems about right to me from everything I’ve read about him.

6. (7) Geo. Van Haltren. Figuring out where he belongs in the OF glut is difficult as there aren’t any guys with truly similar careers. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

7. (8) Rube Waddell. Downgraded for general unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

8. (9) Joe Medwick. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is a real peak, and he has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that. Didn’t do much past the age of 30, which is why he isn’t higher. Just for fun, it would be interesting to know whether many contemporary baseball observers thought Averill or Bob Johnson were better players than Medwick.

9. (13) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher to me, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

10. (12) Edd Roush. You hear a lot of odd things about this guy, and I have a hard time getting a clear picture of Roush’s career. A good CF and among the best players in the NL for a decade. Also had a couple of MVP type seasons and was the one of the best players on a team that won a World Series. (OK, it was the 1919 Series, but still…) All in all, I think he’s just behind Averill and Van Haltren among CF candidates

11. (14) George Sisler. Back on the ballot thanks to his proximity to Medwick and Averill in various peak/career calculations. Looking again at his career between 1916-1922, I wonder whether I have not been seriously underrating him. Not much after that, but a lot of guys on this ballot were basically finished by the age of 30.

13. (15) Wes Ferrell. Great pitcher until the age of 30. Could also hit a little….

14. (11) George J. Burns. In a lot of ways I like him better than his contemporary Edd Roush. Roush may have better rate stats, but Burns rarely missed a game and averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Could get on base, run, field, and always showed up to play.

15. (17) Cool Papa Bell. Long, famous career. Outstanding fielder, baserunner. Could also hit some. Could easily swap places with Geo. Van Haltren on my ballot.

Next 5
16. Red Ruffing
17. Alejandro Oms
18. Joe Gordon
19. Hugh Duffy
20. Quincy Trouppe

Required disclosures:

Red Ruffing. Just off the ballot. I like Rixey more among the big innings pitchers.
Biz Mackey. Has fallen behind Trouppe as my favorite eligible catcher. He’s around #30 on my ballot.
   68. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 03, 2005 at 05:27 AM (#1658972)
I'm up too late and can't think of anything good for an intro. From the "Trust-the-MLE's" department, Quincy Trouppe makes my PHoM this year.

1. Tommy Leach (2) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. The 1900s aren't any better represented than any other era, and worse than some. Made my PHoM in 1940.

2. Bill Monroe (3) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

3. Wes Ferrell (4) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above. Made my PHoM in 1958.

4. Quincy Trouppe (5) His numbers are comparable to all the other catcher candidates, without the 4 or 5 year period we don't have numbers for. I know the Mexican translations aren't as certain as some of the others, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. Makes my PHoM this year (And even if I'm wrong, it's a lesser mistake than the group will make if they pick Medwick. :)

5. Willard Brown (7) On the one hand, I’m not really sure he belongs. On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the other OF on the ballot. Chris's analysis showed him with the best career numbers of the OF candidates he looked at, and the peak numbers may have been deflated by the missing war years.

6. Earl Averill (9) His record appears close to the old CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead. Chris's analysis supports my feeling that he's just ahead of most of the pack.

(6A Bill Terry)

7. Dick Redding (6) At this stage of the Negro League pitcher analysis, nobody from the crowd has moved ahead of Cannonball Dick to me. Slips just a bit because I don't know that we really need another Negro League pitcher. I don't have a quota, but looking at the number already in gives me pause.

8. Joe Sewell (8) While I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). They're not that far apart to me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. Cupid Childs (11) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Every time I compare him to Doerr and Gordon, though, the less sure I feel about having him ahead. Made my PHoM in 1932.

10. Bobby Doerr (17) He's clearly behind Herman on career and peak, and wasn't clearly the best of his era as Childs was. I almost moved him ahead of Childs, but looking at the year-by-year OPS+ held me back.

11. Dobie Moore (12) For a long time I've had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore?

12. George Van Haltren (13) Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy.
(12A Max Carey)

13. Bob Elliott (10) For everyone who said Hack fans should be supporting him, I agree. OTOH, his usage is comparable to Leach's, but I think his defensive value is demonstrably lower, and he played through the war. I was sure Hack was HoM-worthy, I'm not sure yet about Elliott.

14. Red Ruffing (14) I think I was overrating him some - he's hard to distinguish from Rixey, and he does seem to have gotten a lot of help from being a Yankee (although his best years in comparison to the team were in the team's best years, 37-39).

15. Joe Medwick (15) I was really tempted to make this a tie with Bob Johnson, but I have to admit with his peak, he's probably just ahead.

16. Bob Johnson (16) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.

17. Alejandro Oms (18) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
18. Eppa Rixey (19) I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era, but his numbers are impressive. Doesn't do great in my pitcher ranking system, but I'm not sure why.
19. Gavvy Cravath (20) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
20. Biz Mackey (21) I am comfortable that he's ahead of Bresnahan, Schang and Lombardi, but those numbers still aren't that striking, and they don't seem to match up to Trouppe's. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
21. Cool Papa Bell (22) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
22. Ralph Kiner (new) Can't see him as that much better than Keller, had a short career and not a truly outstanding peak. Needs more analysis, but I'm not too crazy about him yet.
23. Ben Taylor (23) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now, and I'd been overlooking the pitching. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
24. Jake Beckley. (24) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
25. Jose Mendez (25) Great peak, but I still think Redding's distinctly better.
(25A Sam Thompson, 25B Rube Foster)
26. Joe Gordon (26) Not that far from Doerr, should probably be a little higher.
27. Vern Stephens (new) Could be higher.
28. Bucky Walters (28) Could move up some more, but it's hard to seperate him from Dean.
29. Jimmy Ryan (29) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident.
(29A Hughie Jennings)
30. George Sisler (30) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff
31. Rube Waddell
32. Dick Lundy
33. Clark Griffith
34. Charley Jones
35. Edd Roush
36. Charlie Keller
37. Ernie Lombardi
38. Burleigh Grimes
39. Spotswood Poles
40. Dizzy Dean
   69. sunnyday2 Posted: October 03, 2005 at 12:02 PM (#1659183)
Andrew M,

Your ballot is missing a #12!
   70. Rusty Priske Posted: October 03, 2005 at 12:47 PM (#1659199)
He posted his #16, though, so I just moved them all up one.

My non-specific comment about the situation in vote counting:


wow
   71. Ken Fischer Posted: October 03, 2005 at 02:18 PM (#1659308)
1961 Ballot


1-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of he list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

2-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top
three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

3-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

4-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

5-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He get discounted by some because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

6-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

7-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

8-Red Ruffing 322 WS
Several 20-win seasons in the 30s is impressive.

9-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

10-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

11-Joe Medwick 312 WS
I decided there had to be room for the last NL triple crown winner in my top 15.

12-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

13-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-Earl Averill 280 WS
He’s penalized some by a short career. Earl gave Indians fans something to cheer about until Bob Feller came along.

Griffith is #40 on depth chart…Sisler #47…there are at least 10 pitchers I rank above Griffiths...he was the number 4 or 5 guy in the 1890s at best…Sisler is overshadowed by many players that were more versatile.
   72. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 03, 2005 at 02:38 PM (#1659348)
He posted his #16, though, so I just moved them all up one.

I think I'll hold off adding his ballot until he responds to me query, though.

Without Andrew's ballot, I have 41 ballots tabulated. Still missing ballots from: PhillyBooster, Kelly from SD, Jeff M, Michael Bass, Tiboreau, jimd, Max Parkinson, Carl G, James Newburg, and Chris J.

Craig B has been removed from the list since he didn't vote in the previous five electons.
   73. jimd Posted: October 03, 2005 at 05:31 PM (#1659748)
Ballot for 1961

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next month.


1) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

2) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

3) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

4) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

5) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

6) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

7) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

8) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

9) E. AVERILL -- Giving a little bit of PCL credit.

10) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus gets him on ballot.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

12) J. TINKER -- Long career playing great defense; integral part of a great team.

13) R. MARANVILLE -- Very long career playing great defense; needs a little more bat.

14) J. MEDWICK -- The other Heavenly Twin?

15) H. DUFFY -- The Joe Medwick of the 1890's. One thing I prefer about Win Shares over WARP is the feedback from team wins; WARP writes off the discrepancy as a fluke. Well, the Beaneaters of the 1890's constantly and significantly outperformed their stats. Hence WARP underrates them. I have no reason to believe that Duffy shouldn't receive his fair share of credit for those extra wins.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Cool Papa Bell, Tommy Leach, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan,
20-23) Dick Redding, Eppa Rixey, Ray Schalk, Dick Lundy,
24-27) Ned Williamson, Bobby Doerr, Joe Gordon, Herman Long,
28-31) Jim McCormick, Wally Schang, Rube Waddell, Edd Roush,
32-34) Roger Bresnahan, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
   74. OCF Posted: October 03, 2005 at 06:27 PM (#1659864)
F. Jones, Veach, Dunlap, Tinker, Maranville.

The number of candidates receiving votes this year is now 75, a new record.
   75. Andrew M Posted: October 03, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1659870)
Revised 1961 ballot (this time with all 15 spots filled)

1. Griffith
2. Averill
3. Rixey
4. Moore
5. Doyle
6. Van Haltren
7. Waddell
8. Medwick
9. Childs
10. Roush
11. Sisler
12. Ferrell
13. Burns
14. Bell
15. Ruffing

Sorry for the confusion...
   76. OCF Posted: October 03, 2005 at 06:33 PM (#1659886)
Thanks, Andrew. That's a big help - especially in this election, when we can't afford to have any questionable or questioned ballots.
   77. OCF Posted: October 03, 2005 at 06:39 PM (#1659904)
By the way, the previous record for lowest mean consenus score was -10.3 in 1958. This year, we're headed for the neighborhood of -14. The highest scores may be around -5, the lowest around -25, but no outliers on either side. Interpretation: the "consensus" is so mushy and distributed that it's impossible to be in good agreement with it and difficult to be in extreme disagreement.
   78. Michael Bass Posted: October 03, 2005 at 06:51 PM (#1659946)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

Kiner is in the OF glut from 20-50. His appearance inspired me to look back, and realize a lot of these guys were mishmashed in poor ranking order, so I rearranged them a bit. Especially overlooked was Dom Dimaggio for some unknown reason, and he vaults into the top 30. Stephens is not top 50. Not enough peak, career not impressively long.


1. Wes Ferrell (2) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.


2. Dobie Moore (4) - Really, the now-former Hughie supporters should love Dobie, too. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

I'm finally going with my gut here. He did not have a super-long career, but he had a monster peak, and his career was all prime (well, we don't know about the Army years, which he just gets some vague credit for, but you get the picture). The comparison to Boudreau, moves him up this high. Dobie is so overlooked it's unbelievable.

3. José Méndez (5) - I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

I think this is the electorate's single most underrated player (well, he or Moore). This is in part because he does not show up so much in the Negro League awards and polls, because his best work was in Cuba, at a time when all of the best Negro League players were playing in Cuba. Compare Mendez's career to Ed Walsh who, deservingly, cruised into the HOM. Was Mendez's pitching height as high as Walsh's? Likely not, but it wasn't that far off. Some of that gap is closed by Mendez's hitting, which was excellent for a pitcher. Some more of that gap is closed by Mendez having a little value after his peak (when he came back from the injury, he had one solid season left in him), something Walsh had zero of. I'd rate Walsh above Mendez, but so much difference that Walsh flies in on his first ballot while Mendez struggles to break double figure ballots? Doesn't make sense to me.

4. Bobby Doerr (6) - This is the point of the big dropoff, after which I'm no longer sure anyone is a HOMer, and the next 20-30 slots are kind of a big jumble. Doerr is not, in view, close to Boudreau, but he was a great defender at 2B, and has something to like for all voters.

5. Red Ruffing (7) - I love these hitting pitchers if you can't tell. Just not enough peak to rank higher than this. I had him above Moore/Wells earlier, but I can't justify that at all now that I'm actually posting. Still, a good strong Lyons-style candidate in value terms.

6. Earl Averill (8) - Moving on up; peak, prime, career. Fielding is in question, but I use WARP which thinks much less of his fielding than Win Shares, so I'm not too worried about overranking him. This gives him one year of minor league credit. Very good player.

7. Bucky Walters (9) - Impressive peak and prime. Ruffing's career advantage trumps Walters' peak advantage in this case, because of war factors, which add slightly to Ruffing and subtract slightly more from Walters.

8. Dizzy Dean (10) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

9. Joe Sewell (11) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit. His offense isn't quite good enough to justify higher, but it was good enough to demand a ballot spot.

10. Clark Griffith (12) - Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone. He also pitched in a tougher league than those who immediately preceeded and followed him.

11. Willard Brown (13) - For Williard, I compared him to Oms and Suttles. With reasonable war credit, he is clearly, though not substantially, better than Oms. I do not think he was as good as Suttles. Suttles was below this on my ballot, but a second look at him tells me I underrated him some. Anyway, he had a nice career once war credit is in, and some nice peak and prime as well.

12. Joe Gordon (14) - I like him a touch better than the group, though not that much. Seems like lots of folks have him top 20-25, and that's give or take about where I have him.. To me, he's basically Sewell lite once you add a touch of war credit. Not an overly long career or overly high peak, but all prime.

13. Quincy Trouppe (15) - With no reason to believe his defense was Lombardi-esque, I've concluded that even an average defensive catcher with his offensive numbers and peak probably is better than Mackey, who I still like.

14. Bob Johnson (16) - Little bit like Averill, though no minor league credit for Bob. He could hit, field (though in a corner). No peak like Averill, but career is all prime, with the possibly exception of 1945 if you slice up his stats (I think 1944 was so good that even with a steep discount, that's a strong year).

15. Dick Redding (17) - Of similar value to Bill Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. Just not quite the peak, and for all the talk about a long career I don't see that either. Still, very good pitcher on the second tier, right in the mix for those last 50 HOM slots. Very happy to have him back on the ballot.

-------------------------
16-20: Sisler, Browning, Mackey, Trout, Medwick
21-25: Leonard, Elliot, Oms, Shocker, Dunlap
26-30: Monroe, D. Dimaggio, Matlock, F. Jones, Kiner,
31-35: Buffinton, Williamson, Bartell, Waddell, Scales
36-40: Lundy, Taylor, H. Smith, Passeau, Veach
41-45: Bond, Poles, Klein, Berger, Uhle
46-50: Byrd, Van Haltren, Harder, Warneke, Bell

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Medwick - Not as good as Bob Johnson in my view. Peak not as high as you might think, and career is shortish. How can he rank ahead of Sisler, who had a similar career shape, but a much higher peak? #20, nonetheless, he is not a terrible choice. Just not a prime one.

Mackey - #18. Mackey's career was really not all that long (minimal credit for the back half when he couldn't hit at all). But he had a nice prime in the first half, and was certainly an A catcher at a minimum. I do hope to vote for him someday, and we appear to be getting closer to that day.

Rixey - You all know my feelings on him. The Beckley of pitchers, neither should be within miles of the HOM.

Sisler - #16. I like him a lot, clearly superior to Medwick IMO. Like Medwick, though, his true peak is only one season, and his prime pales in comparison to, as thie discussion has gone, Averill.

Bell - #50. Would be happy to look at him again with adjusted Mexico numbers, but I have never seen a peak on him that would recommend him for a ballot slot.

Van Haltren - #47. You know, I'm not a huge fan, but I see the argument for him, and it's kind of cool that he's made his way back into the top 10 returnees. Nice roller coaster for him. Damn near elected to a steady drop out of the collective consciousness. Is he making a comeback? Anyway, not enough peak or long enough career for me, but he was a fine player.
   79. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 03, 2005 at 07:09 PM (#1659983)
Thanks, Andrew. That's a big help - especially in this election, when we can't afford to have any questionable or questioned ballots.

Which reminds me, like last "year," the election will end at exactly 8 PM. As OCF has hinted at, this election is going to be extremely close again.

Thanks, Andrew!
   80. PhillyBooster Posted: October 03, 2005 at 07:19 PM (#1660005)
Two elected from the bottom of my ballot, and no newcomers added, so the choice was who to add at 14 and 15. #14 went to Earl Averill, who gets substantial credit for high-minors play, which pushes him over the rest. The last spot adds to the growing Alejandro Oms juggernaut.

1. Eppa Rixey (1) -- Lots of way above average innings. Lots of solid seasons. War credit. Rixey could end up on the top of my ballot for a loooong time.

2. Jake Beckley (2) -- I consider myself equal parts "peak" and "career", but I think this peak-minded electorate is leaving me with lots of the older career guys on top. On my "more uniquer" scale, failure to elect Beckley will make him the only member of the top 10 in triples (his is #4) to not make it. The next guy who won't make it is Sam Rice (#14)/ Ed Konetchy (#15). Beckley is Rice/Konetchy Plus, and deserves to be in another level.

3. Gavy Cravath (3) – Including high minors play, over 350 WS with a great peak.

4. Jose Mendez (4) -- Will Martin Dihigo become the only Cuban pitcher in the Hall of Merit? Mendez and Luque appear to be my main "lost cause" picks that are pulling down my Consensus Score. Great league with great pitchers. Relatively small league depresses stats (all teams are "All-Star" teams.

5. Mickey Welch (5) -- Will the 1880s soon appear underrepresented?

6. Dolf Luque (6) -- See Mendez. I am the only vote for Luque, and I think it's because no one else is giving him "excluded for racism" points. Anyway, I think it would become obvious if the stat I was looking for existed, but apparently it doesn't. The stat I wish existed would be the opposite of the "Most Similar by Age" list, where you can now see that at 28, Luque was "Most Similar" to Otis Lambeth, a career 11-9 pitcher who pitched his final 7 innings at age 28. Thank you very much, I learned a lot. My new stat would be "Most Similar FROM Age", so that instead of looking at Luque's career from birt to age 28, you could look at it from Age 28 onward only. I can eyeball that he had about 3100 innings with an ERA+ of almost 120 from Age 28 onward, but it's hard to make his case without seeing who that is comparable to. Better than Red Ruffing, I'd say. More like Early Wynn, maybe. It's hard to eyeball, but that fact is that Luque made the Top 100 in IP despite being excluded from the Game for the first years of his career. Give him a few years of "Negro League equivalency," and Luque should be receiving a lot more than "one" vote.


7. Roger Bresnahan (8) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

8. Biz Mackey (9) -- long time studier, first time voter. I'm confortable enough to put him up here with Bresnahan, but not enough to consider him better.

9. Cupid Childs (10) -- More love for the 1890s.

10. Clark Griffith (11) -- Never the best pitcher, but always near the top.

11. Hugh Duffy (12) -- usually a 'tweener (on ballot one year, off the next). Now, likely on for the long haul.

12. Cannonball Dick Redding (13) -- Yet another second-best who is better than all the third-bests below.

13 George van Haltren (14) -- emerges from the "holding pen" below onto ballot. See above.

14. Earl Averill (off) -- PCL credit leaps him over a group of similar contenders.

15. Alejandro Oms (off)-- slowly incorporating the data as it becomes available. Oms is looking more like a "real find" than just early hype. He is looking more and more like Hugh Duffy, and probably deserves a comparable ballot spot.
   81. OCF Posted: October 03, 2005 at 07:28 PM (#1660031)
6. Dolf Luque (6) -- See Mendez. I am the only vote for Luque, ...

That makes 76.
   82. PhillyBooster Posted: October 03, 2005 at 07:42 PM (#1660056)
You know what that means! Free trombones for all the candidates!
   83. Max Parkinson Posted: October 03, 2005 at 08:49 PM (#1660210)
I missed two months, and you all go ahead and elect Hughie Jennings. I guess I wasn’t needed after all…

1961 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductee is Pete Browning)

1. Dick Redding

One of the 5 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Waddell and Griffith have fallen off my ballot, but plaques are forever…), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

2. Red Ruffing

Good to great for a long enough time with the Yankees to overcome how awful he was with Boston.

3. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty. Welcome aboard, Pete.

4. Wes Ferrell

The peak/prime voter in me. I don’t hold his (unsuccessful) comeback attempts against him at all.

5. George Sisler

I’ve moved him up recently.

6. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly outstanding peak, and as I keep reading, he may jump to the Ferrell level. He’ll be PHoM before long.

7. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up to be the best available LF. Fairly large jump for me.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Hugh Duffy
10. Bill Monroe
11. Edd Roush
12. George Burns

I have lessened my 1910-mid 20s AL-NL penalty. Roush and Burns are helped.

13. Burleigh Grimes

I seem to value long career in pitchers more than I do position players. Maybe I need to revisit, maybe not.

14. Quincy Trouppe

This could be underrating him, but I’ll start him conservatively.

15. Eppa Rixey.

The same NL benefit helps Eppa. I still don’t give him any war credit, and think that some are overstating the need to adjust for his teams/defenses.

Previous Top 10s:

Mackey is 22, Medwick is 28 (although I’ve voted for him before), and Averill is below that.
   84. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: October 03, 2005 at 08:56 PM (#1660232)
Hall of Merit ballot

1. Clark Griffith. Bill James didn't list him in his Top 100 pitchers, let alone his top 100 players. Type in his name at b-ref and it takes you to his managing career. Never mentioned among the greatest. He just might be the most underrated player in baseball history.

2. Cool Papa Bell. I try to balance the info in the threads with general reputation. Also, I think the MLEs might underrate him (see my comment about Ichiro in the Bell thread).

3. Biz Mackey. Better than Schang, and I have Schang on the ballot. IIRC, he's the #1 choice of both experts and players in the "Cool Papas and Double Duties" book as best Negro Leaguer not in Cooperstown.

4. Eppa Rixey. I like the big long career guys (that's the only reason Eppa even makes my ballot). I'm giving him a little WWI credit. I see him as not quite as good in his era as Mickey Welch was in his era.

5. Earl Averill. Great prime. Decent career value. Some minor leauge credit. It all adds up.

6. Jake Beckley. Not a real peak, but a very long and very deep prime. Add that in with his career value and here he is.

7. George Sisler. Really moving up for me. He's got two things I really like: great prime/peak, and good total career values.

8. George Van Haltren Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch.

9. Ralph Kiner. Ridiculous prime. The Pete Browning of the 20th century.

10. Wes Ferrell. He was a monster for a while, and lasted just long enough to rack up some decent career numbers.

11. Pete Browning. With the exception of Kiner, the best pure hitter out there. Even adjusting for quality of competition and he's a monster.

12. Joe Gordon. Childs, Gordon, and Doyle are all very close in my mind.

13. Cupid Childs. Great prime, good defensive, nice career. Best second baseman available.

14. Ernie Lombardi. Great hitting prime at a tough position to hit at. Terrible defense, though.

15. Larry Doyle. Yet another very good second baseman.

Off-Ballot Production Presents:

20. Joe Medwick - really good player, but between the number of really good OFers in the mix, and a desire to have non-OFers in there as well, he falls short.

26. Red Ruffing. I might be too hard on him. FWIW, he pitched great when he came back from WWII, until a line drive broke his kneecap(!) So he does deserve some WWII credit, but I'm not sure where the Yanks end and where he begins.
   85. OCF Posted: October 03, 2005 at 09:06 PM (#1660258)
For those seeking to correlate identities, the 1960 ballot I recorded as "Chris J" now says "(out of order)."
   86. Tiboreau Posted: October 03, 2005 at 09:09 PM (#1660264)
1. sp Wes Ferrell (2, 3, 2)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter. PHoM 1957
2. sp Clark Griffith (3, 4, 5)—A good balance between peak and career: his peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Dean than Rixey and Ruffing, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former. PHoM 1939
3. cf Hugh Duffy (5, 6, 7)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either. PHoM 1960
4. lf Joe Medwick (6, 7, 8)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as among the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career. PHoM 1961
5. sp Dizzy Dean (7, 8, 9)—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! Win Shares credits Dean with the best peak among eligible pitchers, while only Wes Ferrell has a better peak according to WARP.
6. ss Dobie Moore (8, 9, 10)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
7. rf Gavy Cravath (9, 10, 11)—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
8. sp Bucky Walters (10, 11, 12)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
9. cf Alejandro Oms (11, 12, 4)—The poor man’s Paul Waner. Only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a real good peak IMO as well as a real good career (340 WS).
10. 2b Cupid Childs (12, 13, 13)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
11. sp Jose Mendez (13, 14, 15)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
12. cf Edd Roush (14, 15, ob)—Roush nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
13. cf Earl Averill (15, ob)—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the ever-growing glut of solid outfield candidates. Similar in value to Boudreau & Gordon, IMO. I give Averill credit for his ’28 PCL performance.
14. 2b Joe Gordon (ob)—It seems that 2b is to the infield glut what cf has been to the outfield glut. By my count there are 7 serious 2b candidates, including 1 1890s candidate (Childs\Duffy) and 2 Negro Leaguers (Monroe & Scales\Bell & Poles). Both Gordon & Doerr’s candidacy is similar to Averill & Sisler’s: strong, but not great, peak with medium career value.
15. sp Eppa Rixey (ob)—Nearly 4500 IP with a 115 ERA+, the best of the long career, low peak pitchers eligible.

Required Disclosures:
18. 1b George Sisler (ob)—While his peak is nice it’s not as good as I originally thought, and his marginal second-half isn’t enough combined with his peak to get him on my ballot.
20. c Biz Mackey (ob)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang.
21. cf Cool Papa Bell (ob)—An interesting case. While James Riley’s expert pole places Bell among the 1st team Negro League All-Stars, Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections place him squarely among the long career, decent peak candidates, below even the infamous Jake Beckley. Like Willie Wells, I think his peak is doubly understated, and have placed Cool Papa about where I see his MLB comparable, Max Carey.
23. sp Red Ruffing (ob)—Ruffing had a long and valuable career but not enough of a peak to make my ballot. Questions regarding the support he received playing for the Yankees and the dichotomy between his Boston and New York careers also cloud the issue.
32. cf George Van Haltren (ob)—A long career with little peak is just not what I'm lookin' for in a HoMer. Resides in the mid-thirties with Schang, Leach, and Jimmy Ryan.
   87. OCF Posted: October 03, 2005 at 09:33 PM (#1660324)
This year's winning candidate will have been omitted from at least a dozen ballots.
   88. OCF Posted: October 03, 2005 at 09:54 PM (#1660380)
Did Kelly from SD leave instructions or messages with anyone regarding proxy ballots? I vaguely remember that there was something about him, but I can't find it anywhwere. He and Jeff M are the only 1960 voters not to appear yet in 1961. So far, our only added voted is Max Parkinson, back after 4 years away.
   89. sunnyday2 Posted: October 03, 2005 at 09:58 PM (#1660391)
Is that a big deal? Jennings missed 21, Boudreau missed more than a dozen. It's true however that you then have to go back to Vance in 1942 who missed 12.
   90. sunnyday2 Posted: October 03, 2005 at 10:08 PM (#1660412)
O, if either or both of them vote, unless they deviate from their 1960 ballot substantially, it's not gonna change the outcome. Of course, Craig B or whomever might still show up, or maybe I'll vote again ;-)... But otherwise, it's all over but the whining.
   91. OCF Posted: October 03, 2005 at 10:18 PM (#1660435)
Of course, Craig B or whomever might still show up,

Most recent appearances:

Flaxseed: 1958
Carl G: 1957
Craig B: 1955
David C. Jones: 1954
Eric Enders: 1952
Ardo: 1950
Buddha: 1950
jhwinfrey: 1950
   92. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 03, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1660444)
But otherwise, it's all over but the whining.

...and there will be whining, Marc. ;-)
   93. sunnyday2 Posted: October 03, 2005 at 10:51 PM (#1660474)
John, you talkin' ta me??? ;-)

(The whiner, er, I mean winner, is on my ballot!)
   94. Happy Jack Chesbro Posted: October 03, 2005 at 11:08 PM (#1660499)
...and there will be whining

Does this mean I won!?! Woohoo!
   95. Jeff M Posted: October 03, 2005 at 11:33 PM (#1660528)
1961 Ballot

1. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

2. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

3. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

4. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

5. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

6. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

7. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

8. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, because he would be a shoo-in. But, he was a peak performer anyway, and could swing the bat.

9. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

10. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

11. Averill, Earl – Decided to give him minor league credit, which I have mixed feelings about.

12. Sewell, Joe – He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

13. Gordon, Joe – I think he’s quite a bit ahead of Doerr, at least in terms of where he is on the ballot. Most of the gap is probably meaningless on an actual baseball diamond.

14. Ryan, Jimmy – Not a fan of Ryan originally, but a reevaluation a few elections ago moved him up, and voila, he makes a ballot.

15. Griffith, Clark – Back on after several years.

Required Disclosure(s):

Ruffing, Red – Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a small boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Rixey, Eppa – No question in my mind he’s better than Ruffing. However, he never really had flashes of brilliance, and for me that’s a pre-requisite to the HoM.
   96. Jeff M Posted: October 03, 2005 at 11:36 PM (#1660529)
Sorry about the late ballot. Hope it didn't create any trouble for the ballot counters.
   97. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 04, 2005 at 12:00 AM (#1660551)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.

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