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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, October 10, 2005

1962 Ballot

Newly eligible: Jackie Robinson, Bob Feller, Monte Irvin, Phil Rizzuto, and Al Rosen.

Returnees: Red Ruffing, Joe Medwick, Wes Ferrell, Biz Mackey, Eppa Rixey, Clark Griffith, George Sisler, George Van Haltren, and Cool Papa Bell.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 10, 2005 at 01:23 PM | 94 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 10, 2005 at 01:30 PM (#1673957)
hot topics
   2. yest Posted: October 10, 2005 at 01:54 PM (#1673990)
1962 ballot
Feller and Ray Brown make my PHOM this year

1. Bob Feller (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
3. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
8. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
9. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
11. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
12. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
15. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
16. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
17. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
19. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
20. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21. Hilton Smith see his thread
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
28. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
31. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice
34. Alejandro Oms the recent discussion put him here
35. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Jackie Robinson not enough career even with 1 minor league and 1negore league seasons no war credit
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot
   3. karlmagnus Posted: October 10, 2005 at 02:08 PM (#1674009)
Feller’s a clear #1 – over 320 wins with WWII credit, though he’s not as outstanding as I’d expected. Robinson shortish career even with extra credit, but quality good – however I don’t see why he’s better than Addie Joss. If Irvin was SO wonderful why is his OPS+ only 126 post 30; also, even if you add 150% to his ML career, that’s still only 1827 hits. Hence he’s at best Klein/Johnson, and I’ve put him just below them. Rizzutto’s Rabbit Maranville without the career length.

1. (N/A) Bob Feller Over 320 wins with WWII credit. 3827 innings, 266-162. ERA+ only 122, but pulled down by long tail and lack of wartime peak.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-4-5-4-6-4-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-5-6-5-7-5-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just above Rixey.

8. Jackie Robinson. 1518 hits, so only 2000-2100 even with 3 years pre-1947 credit. OPS+ 132, excellent for 2B. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .844, very good but not outstanding. Easily in, but not top tier.

9. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7-6-8-8-7-9-8-7) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: October 10, 2005 at 02:10 PM (#1674014)
11. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14-13-11-10-9) Clark Griffith credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

12. (N/A-10) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better.

13. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-11-14-13-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

14. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

15. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly, so now a little below. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-15) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

19. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. Monte Irvin. Only 731 hits at OPS+ of 126 in his ML career. Cannot believe he would have got above 136-138 OPS+ and 2000 hits if he’d played ML pre-30. TB+BB/PA .532, TB+BB/Outs .838. Overrated by history, for understandable reasons.

23. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

24. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

25. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
26.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
27. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
28. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
29. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
30. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
31. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
34. (N/A) Heinie Manush
35. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
36. Wes Ferrell. Not enough career.
37. (N/A) Dick Lundy
38. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
39. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
40. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
41. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
42. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
43. (N/A) Vern Stephens.
44. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
45. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pye Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Joe Gordon.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Jules Thomas.
62. Wilbur Cooper
63. Bruce Petway.
64. Jack Clements
65. Bill Monroe
66. Jose Mendez
67. Herb Pennock
68. Chief Bender
69. Ed Konetchy
70. Bob Elliott.
71. Jesse Tannehill
72. Bobby Veach
73. Lave Cross
74. Tommy Leach.
75. Tom York
   5. sunnyday2 Posted: October 10, 2005 at 02:11 PM (#1674019)
Ralph Kiner 6200 PAs
Ginger Beaumont 6000 PAs
Hack Wilson about 5450 PAs
John McGraw 4800 PAs adjust to (guessing here) 6250 PAs
Jackie Robinson >5600 ML PAs, with one MiL and one NeL...?

I would have to conclude, yest, that you think Kiner and Beaumont and Wilson and McGraw were just plain better baseball players than Jackie?
   6. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 10, 2005 at 02:40 PM (#1674066)
how do we fix this?
   7. DavidFoss Posted: October 10, 2005 at 03:53 PM (#1674221)
how do we fix this?

Fix what?

Quirks in the new interface? -- I do miss the usernames in the hot topics. More of a reminder of new posts than the time stamp. The live preview and fix to the pre-tag font size is pretty darn cool, though.

Early returns skewed a bit by our two most historically non-consensus voters? -- Every ballot counts the same regardless of order and we should all just keep voting.
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 10, 2005 at 04:06 PM (#1674254)
Quirks in the new interface? -- I do miss the usernames in the hot topics.

That might be temporary. Of course, more threads can be listed in the sidebar now.

I would have to conclude, yest, that you think Kiner and Beaumont and Wilson and McGraw were just plain better baseball players than Jackie?

Marc, don't even bother. :-)

I will say that I don't think you can find a list from either a sabermetric or non-sabermetric perspective that would rank Robinson as low as we have seen so far.
   9. OCF Posted: October 10, 2005 at 04:19 PM (#1674287)
Aagh - I was all set to post early this week, but I left the flash drive with my ballot and supporting materials at home this morning. If it makes you feel any better, it's going to start out 1. Robinson, 2. Feller. The placement I'm struggling with is Irvin. At the moment, I have him at #16, but that may be too low.
   10. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 10, 2005 at 04:23 PM (#1674295)
Fix the fact that I have to scroll right and left to read everyone's ballot. It isn't like this on other threads.
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 10, 2005 at 05:04 PM (#1674396)
Seems to be affecting Firefox, but not IE, jschmeagol.

I know that has been brought to Jim's attention already.
   12. sunnyday2 Posted: October 10, 2005 at 05:06 PM (#1674409)
I get that right-left scroll necessity now and again, seemingly at random, not just certain threads but on and off on the same thread. Not right now.
   13. ronw Posted: October 10, 2005 at 06:16 PM (#1674580)
1962 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Jackie Robinson. I have no memorabilia or pictures at home, other than various baseball books on the shelves. Nevertheless, my three year old daughter can recognize two baseball players by their picture (including modern players): Babe Ruth, and Jackie Robinson. She always asks me if they are playing when she sees a game on TV. I tell her no, but deep down part of me thinks that they are. Congratulations, Jackie.

2. Bob Feller. Deserving of a spot, and receives no argument from me for being #1 on others’ ballots.

3. Monte Irvin. I like what I have read and heard. Seems to be the real thing.

4. Pete Browning. I have been convinced that he was more unique than Redding, and thus deserves a higher spot. Failing to electing Pete is like failing to elect Hank Greenberg. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. When the Gladiator retired, only Brouthers, Connor, and Anson were probably better hitters.

5. Dick Redding. I think he is like an Eddie Plank rather than an Eppa Rixey for career value. As a long-career flamethrower, maybe he is even a Nolan Ryan, although maybe with this sabermetric crowd I shouldn’t say that.

6. Bob Elliott. Offensively, as of 1962 he is 2nd all-time to Stan Hack using unadjusted BWS. In fact, even with adjustments, he only drops below Frank Baker to 3rd. I think that everyone (including me) has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

7. Larry Doyle. I’m surprised here, but I looked carefully at offense this week, and saw that offensively Doyle easily measures up to our existing bottom-tier 2B electees Frisch, Herman, Richardson and McPhee. He is below them defensively, but offensive output puts him ahead of Childs, Lazzeri, Evers, Doerr, and Gordon, despite some league-quality concerns.

8. Cupid Childs. Seemed far ahead of all eligible 2B, until I really looked hard at Larry Doyle.

9. John McGraw. Mugsy’s RCAA domination of the rough-and-tumble 1890’s, tells me we missed him. Offensively, his value is similar to Frank Baker’s minus 476 games, some of which could be made up by schedule-length adjustments. I now believe that fielding is the reason why the huge support for Jennings has not been applied to McGraw.

10. Dobie Moore. We’ve missed him.

11.Biz Mackey. I think we may be missing some offense. A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a bit lower peak.

12. Roger Bresnahan. Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

13. Tommy Bridges. Looking at Newhouser made me realize that Bridges was nearly as valuable a pitcher. Also similar to Coveleski in value.

14. Wes Ferrell. Fine pitcher peak.

15. Jose Mendez. I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.



LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Joe Medwick – #18, now ahead of Bob Johnson. I found out that they have the same BWS/162, 21.8. However, Johnson played 1863 games, while Medwick played 1984 games, so Medwick’s unadjusted BWS total (267.1) slightly surpasses Johnson. Medwick has the highest unadjusted BWS total of any eligible save Jake Beckley (278.9).

Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good. Still, I think I would rather have Lefty Gomez. For what it is worth, I see him as behind all HOM P except Red Faber.

Eppa Rixey – I’ve supported him in the past, but now I like a little more peak.

Clark Griffith – #19.

George Sisler - #16.

George Van Haltren - #17.

Cool Papa Bell - #20.

Phil Rizzuto – Holy cow! Just behind Dave Bancroft.

Al Rosen – Ahead of Bill Joyce, but behind John McGraw. Closer to the ballot than I expected.

Bus Clarkson – Solid shortstop, but I don’t think he has enough.
   14. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 10, 2005 at 07:55 PM (#1674852)
1961 Ballot

As always I’m tinkering and thinkering. I’m more and more considering positional balance. I can’t have 2,000 outfielders on my ballot, and it seems that playing the outfield allows a lot of people to create bigger numbers. So I devised a method that very grossly measures how far away from my personal by-position consideration line each candidate is. And I mostly ranked players on that basis.

1.Bob Feller: As impressed as I am by Robinson as a player, athlete, historical figure, and person, Feller was so good that he gets the #1 spot.

2. Jackie Robinson: I’d like to give him all sorts of extra credit for being the first black in MLB since Fleet Walker, but he doesn’t need it—his record is outstanding by itself.

3.Jose Mendez: Great Cuban talent, big peak, decent shoulder seasons.

4. Leroy Matlock: The US version of Mendez two generations later.

5.Bucky Walters: Oft-overlooked star of the 1930s and 1940s with an outstanding peak and prime.

6.Quincy Trouppe: Trouppe’s among the biggest upward movers on my ballot this week. He’s getting respect from the electorate, but not quite enough (IMO). He’s the Gary Carter of his era and environment. The best catching candidate out there. (I am giving him credit for the ND years, but it’s only a bulk credit, he earns this spot with a very nice peak and prime.)

7.Charley Jones: Big bat with a big peak. I am giving him credit for the blacklist seasons.

8.Wesley Ferrell: He’s my fourth favorite among the high-peak, medium-career hurlers. That said, he is well worth inducting.

9.Monte Irvin: A very nice peak combined with a strong career. Although many have expressed concerns about unregressed MLEs, I don’t share them. The available data shows Irvin hitting at every stop, and the projections are simple multiplying and averaging. There’s not much more to it, and it shows Irvin as an excellent player. His seeming low placement at number 8 is not a knock on him as much as it is a reflection of the excellent talent above and a recognition that his career is less impressive as a LF than it would be as, say, a C or SS.

10.Roger Bresnahan: I’ve never voted for Bresnahan before, but I am this year because I believe that I haven’t been attentive to the details of position viz performance. Bresnahan is the second-best catcher available, even if he wasn’t always a catcher, and he has as good a peak as Trouppe without quite as much career.

11.Hugh Duffy: Best available CF, his peak/prime combo are still very attractive.

12.Cupid Childs: Haven’t voted for him in quite a while. He’s a very impressive 2B with a very impressive peak/prime. If he’d just had a little more career, he’d have been in some time ago.

13.Joe Medwick: 22nd or 23rd best left fielder that I’m aware of. ; )

14.Dobie Moore: Hughie Jennings lite is still heavier than a lot of dudes.

15.Willard Brown: A very impressive talent who excelled in every facet of the game but walking.



16.Biz Mackey: The catchers really get a lot of help from my re-evaluation of ranking methodology, including Mackey.

17.Wilbur Cooper: What can I say, I like his peak/prime better than I like Ruffing’s and Rixey’s careers.

18.Red Ruffing: Ted Lyons still awaits pHOMing, so I’m no hurry with Red.

19.Eppa Rixey: Red Ruffing in the morning, Rixey take warning.

20.Alejandro Oms: Falls well back of where he was on previous ballots after re-evaluation.

NEWBIES
Ellis Kinder: I have no clue what to do with him. He’s kind of like Eck but without the career length. I feel like he’s getting lost and that maybe he shouldn’t be, but it’s a hunch a this point.

Bus Clarkson: He’s in a clump with Pesky, Stephens, and others.

Phil Rizzuto: Just ahead of the Clarkson clump, you huckleberry!

Hank Thompson: A very impressive moneyball player. If he hadn’t drank himself out of the game, I think he would have had a very special and interesting career.

Al Rosen: The peak is there, but it’s not Jenningsesque, which it would need to be to get near my ballot.

Mel Parnell: A very good pitcher for a very short time.

TOP TENS
Griffith: I still don’t like him.

Sisler: A couple weeks ago I re-evaled him onto my ballot. This week, he’s back off, around number 20-25ish. He’s much closer to the borderline candidate than the men on my ballot.
   15. yest Posted: October 10, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1675310)
I would have to conclude, yest, that you think Kiner and Beaumont and Wilson and McGraw were just plain better baseball players than Jackie?

correct just using Kiner because their contemperies I would say Kiner was better in 1947, 1948, 1949, 1951
and Jackie was better in 1950, 1953, 1954, 1955
for career value I have them around equal and since they both had their peak around the same time I think Kiner was better. I have Javkie as the most overated player ever
   16. Daryn Posted: October 10, 2005 at 10:34 PM (#1675334)
You have them equal on best seasons and career and Kiner is 19 and Jackie is nowhere? I don't get it. How is "they both had their peak around the same time" a tiebreaker in favour of Kiner and how does it slot him at least 16 spots ahead of Robinson?
   17. sunnyday2 Posted: October 10, 2005 at 11:01 PM (#1675412)
And, ok, now, how about the immortal Ginger Beaumont?
   18. yest Posted: October 10, 2005 at 11:18 PM (#1675442)
You have them equal on best seasons and career and Kiner is 19 and Jackie is nowhere? I don't get it. How is "they both had their peak around the same time" a tiebreaker in favour of Kiner and how does it slot him at least 16 spots ahead of Robinson?

because they were both loosing it towards the end of their career I give less weight to who's better

And, ok, now, how about the immortal Ginger Beaumont?

Thats due to my theroy that singels are much more impotant then walks in a non power enviorment
   19. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 11, 2005 at 12:16 AM (#1675558)
Please enjoy my (SWW's) absentee ballot. Many thanks to Mr. Murphy for his stewardship of my vote.

Because of my ongoing inability to see into the future, I’m not sure precisely who was elected last year. So – for the first time ever – I am submitting a Top 16. If the 1961 electee is among the first 15, please delete him and move everyone up accordingly. And if he’s not, then you can just ignore #16 altogether. Thanks, and see you next year.

1962 Ballot
1) Jack Roosevelt Robinson

The fact that he was such a good player is impressive. The fact that he excelled while under the greatest pressure faced by any athlete in the 20th Century is nothing short of astonishing. 32nd on Bill James Top 100. 36th on SABR Top 100. 42nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Sporting News Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 11th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.

2) Robert Andrew William Feller – “Rapid Robert”

My first ever vote for a living nominee. A force of nature, with stats to match. And that’s before you factor in the time lost to the war. In most other years, I’d have ranked him #1. 22nd on SABR Top 100. 26th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 36th on Sporting News Top 100. 56th on Bill James Top 100. 81st on Ken Shouler Top 100. 24th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times #125; Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.

3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”

I have looked over the stats again and again, determined to bring my thinking in line with the electorate. And try as I might, I just can’t escape the conclusion that he’s the most meritorious guy on my ballot. So I’ve decided to stop fretting about it and just accept the fact that you’re all wrong in the head. A c.v. that includes a durable, Win Share-rich career, six “All-Star” appearances, terrific black and gray ink, four World Series appearances, and clever use (and non-use) of the spitball. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.

4) James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”

For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.

5) Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”

Medwick continues a run of candidates with huge primes and a rather sharp drop-off. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely, like a certain shortstop I’ll discuss later. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.

6) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”

Another tremendous high with decent career filler. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.

7) Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”

I’m willing to accept the notion that he performed poorly with Boston because they used him so poorly. Factoring in the war years and his high totals in spite of it, I’m content to rank him this high. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.

8) Montford Merrill Irvin – “Monte”

Instinctively, this looks like a Hall-worthy career to me. However, the debate hasn’t really gotten going yet, so I’m cautiously placing him lower than he might actually deserve to be slotted. I should have a clearer picture next year. 19th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.

9) Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”

I consider him to be the best catcher currently available for our consideration, and though his numbers are not as gaudy as Gibson or Santop, they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.

10) Howard Earl Averill

I’m going to go ahead and say I was wrong in allowing him to slip off the ballot. A startling eight times as one of the 10 best players in his league.

11) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”

He drops down from his personal high on my ballot, owing to my concerns about the lack of arc in his career. But I’m sticking with my man Sam, because I recognize how remarkable his career numbers are given his late start, and because he spent so much of his career as the best everyday player on a very bad team. Check the Win Shares, and it’s consistently Walter Johnson and Sam Rice as the Senators’ best. Think if he’d gotten a re-invention like Ruffing. A great one.

12) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”

Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.

13) Edd J Roush

Part of the celebrated center fielder glut. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.

14) Willard Brown

Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot. The general lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy does trouble me somewhat.

15) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”

My ballot should demonstrate that I’m determined not to punish players for consistency over time. That’s why he’s still hanging on to my ballot. But examining his career, I’m very disturbed by the fact that Beckley not only didn’t have any kind of a peak in his league, but that he never even stood out on his own team. He remains the one big problem child in my career-oriented voting pattern.

16) Joseph Wheeler Sewell

Still hanging on until a flood of new guys comes in. Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
   20. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 11, 2005 at 12:20 AM (#1675568)
John,

Whose ballot is post 19? Thanks!
   21. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 11, 2005 at 12:20 AM (#1675569)
Ignore Averill, include Sewell, and adjust accordingly for SWW's ballot.
   22. OCF Posted: October 11, 2005 at 01:05 AM (#1675677)
1962 ballot.

1. Jackie Robinson (new) My only analytical concession to accounting for the effects of the color line is to use it as an explanation for why he lacks career bulk. He did have the prime of a great one.
2. Bob Feller (new) Of all the "child prodigy" players of the last 80 years or so, perhaps the most successful career - certainly that for a pitcher. At his peak, an amazing workhorse (as Nolan Ryan would be 40 years later); like Ryan, walked too many batters (when he was young) for me to be entirely comfortable with what he did. Still, my rating system puts him just below Hubbell, and that's without any war credit.
3. Red Ruffing (4, 2, 3, 1, 2) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
4. Larry Doyle (5, 3, 4, 3, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
5. Ducky Wucky Medwick (6, 4, 5, 4, 3) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
6. George Van Haltren (8, 6, 6, 5, 4) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
7. Eppa Rixey (9, 7, 7, 6, 5) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
8. Ralph Kiner (----, 5) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
9. Wes Ferrell (10, 8, 8, 7, 7) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
10. Joe Sewell (11, 9, 9, 8, 8) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
11. Jake Beckley (13, 11, 11, 10, 10) Not much peak, long career.
12. Biz Mackey (14, 12, 12, 11, 11) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
13. Jose Mendez (15, 13, 13, 12, 13) A peak-value pitching candidate.
14. Dick Redding (16, 14, 14, 13, 13) A career-value pitching candidate.
15. Bob Elliott (--, 15, 14, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
16. Monte Irvin (new) Bill James refused to rate him, "... since his career is half or two-thirds in one world, half or one-third in the other." We're not allowed to duck. His major league career doesn't impress me much. I realize that's just the tip of the iceberg - this is a conservative placement, and I'll make another push at placing him for next year.
17. Quincy Trouppe</b> (---, 15, 15) Haven't decided to put him ahead of Mackey - yet.
18. Willard Brown (-, 15, 16, 16, 16) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
19. Hugh Duffy (17, 16, 17, 17, 17)
20. Bucky Walters (19, 18, 19, 18, 18) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
21. Phil Rizzuto (new) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. (The Ozzie profile, although of course they're not at all comparable). But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
22. Cupid Childs (20, 19, 19, 19, 19) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
23. Joe Gordon (21, 20, 20, 20, 19) Not much to choose from between him and Herman.
24. Tommy Bridges (22, 21, 21, 21, 21) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
25. Cool Papa Bell (23, 22, 22, 22, 22) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
26. Edd Roush (24, 23, 23, 23, 23) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
27. George Sisler (25, 24, 24, 24, 24) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
28. Vern Stephens (----, 25)
29. Bobby Doerr (26, 25, 25, 25, 26)
30. Dobie Moore (-, 26, 26, 26, 27) Short career, high peak.

Falling out of the top 30: Bob Johnson, Rube Waddell, Frank Chance.

Al Rosen has a blazing short peak, but not a career and not really even a prime.
   23. Kelly in SD Posted: October 11, 2005 at 07:02 AM (#1676374)
A recap some of Jackie Robinson's achievements on the diamond.

Let's look at traditional stats and measures first:
Honors while playing:
MVPs: 1, 1949
Rookie of the Year: 1, 1947
All-Star games: 6, 1949 - 1954

Top 10s and firsts:
Batting Average: 6 times, 1948 - 1953 (10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 8th); with one first: .342 in 1949.
OnBase Percentage: 6 times, 1949 - 1954 (2, 3, 3, 1, 2, 8th); first with .440 in 1952.
Runs: 7 times, 1947 - 1953.
Hits: 5 times, 1947 - 1951.
Doubles: 6 times, 1947 - 1951, 1953.
Walks: 4 times, 1949-1952.
Stolen Bases: 9 times, 1947 - 1953, 1955 - 1956, with 2 firsts.
Also:
Led league in sacrifice hits twice

His Career Batting Average is .311 which is 94th all-time.
His On-Base Percentage is 39th all-time.

Fielding:
Led league at second base in double plays 4 times in a row, 1949 - 1952.
Led league in fielding percentage 3 times, 1948, 1950-1951.
Led league at first base in double plays in only year, 1947.

Using advanced metrics:
Bill James numbers:
Runs created: 5 top tens: 1947, 1949-1952.
Win shares:
1947: 21, tied for 13th among position players NL
1948: 25, tied for 6th among position players NL
1949: 36, 3rd among position players NL
1950: 29, 4th among position players NL
1951: 38, 2nd among position players NL
1952: 34, 2nd among position players NL
1953: 25, 7th tied among position players NL
1954: 20, 15th tied among position players NL

By Total Player Rating from the first Total Baseball (b/c I don't have the time to figure it out by looking up individual players on BP's site.)

1948: Jackie has a 2.2. The book only listed top 5 and 5th place was 2.3, so I would guess he was about 6th.
1949: 2nd in NL
1950: 3rd in NL
1951: 1st in NL
1952: 1st in NL

Of course, he is missing some seasons because of racism. And what seasons are those? Ages 26 and 27. And at what ages do the vast majority of baseball players have their peak seasons? - ages 26, 27, and 28. Jackie is playing NeL ball, in Montreal, and then a year from hell in 1947. So, we don't know what Jackie's peak may have been.

Jackie was also a starter and key performer on 6 first place teams in his ten years: 1947, 49, 52, 53, 55, 56. 3 times a 2nd place team: by 2 games in 1950, 1 game in 1951, 5 games in 1954. 1 time on a 3rd place team: 7.5 games in 1948.

And from SWW's ballot, Jackie's ranks by various experts:
32nd on Bill James Top 100. 36th on SABR Top 100. 42nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Sporting News Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 11th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.

Oh, and he reintegrated baseball.
   24. Kelly in SD Posted: October 11, 2005 at 09:32 AM (#1676402)
1962 Ballot:

1. Bob Feller – PHOM 1962: This is without any WWII credit. 4 seasons with 30+ win shares. Last pitcher with four or more? Walter Johnson. Eligible pitchers with more win shares in any 3 seasons (98)? Dean 99 and turn-of-the-century guys with 100: Waddell and Willis. Eligible pitchers with more win shares in 7 years (198)? Willis with 199. Pitchers with more win shares for career (292)? Rixey, Ruffing, and Willis (293). Eligibles with more times as a win shares all-star (6)? None, though several are tied. Give some War credit and there is no doubt. Oh, also had 95 black ink points. Next best among eligibles is Dean with 52.

2. Jackie Robinson – PHOM 1962: Among eligibles, 3rd in win shares/648 PA with 29.6 (Chance and Keller). 2nd among eligibles in peak (3 straight years – 103) (Medwick). Depending on how you translate short seasons and give credit for NeL play, Jackie is between 1st and 6th in prime score (best 7 seasons) with 208. 5 times a win shares all-star, 5 times a STATS all-star. 4 times a win shares major league all-star. A+ defender at 3rd and 2nd base.

3. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901: The weight of the evidence. Over 300 wins. Everyone pitched a lot in the 19th century... well only Galvin and Keefe had more innings pitched. Compared to his compatriots, he had poor offensive support: Caruthers 111, Clarkson 109, Keefe 107, Radbourn 107, Welch 103, and Galvin 102.
Record against other HoMers: 62 – 38. The others are all around .500 or worse. His ERA+ is hurt because he was unlucky regarding unearned runs behind him. If he had luck similar to the other pitchers on his team it would be 2 or 3 points higher.

4. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906: I give 2+ seasons credit for being blackballed. The credit is given based on the surrounding 6 years. I have him roughly 6th in peak and 1st in prime. Among position players, by win shares, he ranks tied for 4th in 1878, 2nd in 1879, 6th in 1883, 1st in 1884, 3rd in 1885. Now add in 2 missing years in 1881 and 1882. Also, career OPS+ of 149 is tied for 4th among eligibles behind Browning, Keller, and Cravath. His Grey Ink score is 4th among eligibles. If you adjust for season length, he has 9 20+ win share season, 6 over 25, and 4 over 30.

5. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921: Adjusting for season length, he roughly has the second best peak and prime. Adjusting for season length, 7 years over 20 win shares, 6 over 25, and 5 over 30. Has the best OPS+ among eligibles by 10 points, 162 to Keller’s 152. An All-Star by STATS 8 times and win shares 5 times. Among position players, he is 1st in 1882 in AA, 4th in 1883, 5th in 1884, 1st in 1885, 2nd in 1887, 5th in 1890 Players League. His Grey Ink score is in the top 10 among eligibles.

6. Wes Ferrell – PHOM 1958: 3rd highest prime behind Feller and Willis. 6th highest peak (non-consecutive) – 95 win shares behind Waddell, Willis – 100, Dean – 99, Feller – 98, and Walters 97. Only Dean had a higher per 275 innings win shares. NO other eligible has 6 seasons of at least 25 win shares. May have had a career ERA over 4.00, but the league’s run environment was so high that he posted a 117 ERA+. If not for Grove, would be remembered as the best AL pitcher between Johnson and Feller.
In 1929, he was 3rd in the league with 25 win shares while Grove was 1st with 28.
In 1930, he was 2nd with 32 win shares to Grove’s 37.
In 1931, he was 3rd with 28 win shares to Grove’s 42 and Earnshaw’s 29.
In 1932, he was 3rd with 26 win shares to Grove’s 33 and Crowder’s 30.
In 1933, he was 8th with 18 win shares.
In 1935, he was 1st with 35 win shares.
In 1936, he was 2nd with 27 win shares to Grove’s 29.

7. Charlie Keller – PHOM 1957: WWII credit for one season and one partial at his established level. Tied with Pete Browning for second in peak score. Fourth in adjusted prime – Jones, Browning, Duffy. 4 seasons with 30 win shares + 2 adjusted for WWII time. Only Ralph Kiner has 4 seasons over 30 among eligibles. Only Pete Browning has a higher career OPS+ than Keller’s 152. Was an on-base machine, with the 4th highest OBP among eligibles behind McGraw, Childs, and Roy Thomas. Also, hit with tremendous power. His .518 SLG is behind only Kiner, Wilson, Klein, Bi Herman, K Williams, and Berger. Among position players he finished as follows: 1939 – 22 win shares – 14th in AL in rookie year. 1940 – 24 win shares – 9th in AL. 1941 – 32 win shares – 4th in AL. 1942 – 34 win shares – 2nd in AL. 1943 – 36 win shares – 2nd in AL. 1946 – 31 win shares – 4th in AL.

8. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1918: Adjusted for season length, only Browning, Robinson, and Keller have a better peak, and only Browing and Charley Jones have a better prime. 7 years with at least 25 win shares. No other eligible has that. 8 years adjusting for season length which is 2nd only to GVH. 5th in Black Ink behind Cravath, Klein, Medwick, and Kiner. His Grey Ink is top 10. 5 times a win shares All-Star. An A+ outfielder who played less than 50% of his games in center. He was 2nd in 1890 PL with 26 win shares. 1891 AA 3rd with 28. 1892 NL 5th with 29. 1893 NL 1st with 28 (tied). 1894 NL 1st with 33. 1895 NL 11th with 23. 1897 8th with 25. 1898 13th with 25.

9. Bucky Walters – PHOM 1958: This ranking is after I reduce his WWII efforts. 3 times best pitcher in NL. Only Feller, Dean, Waddell, and Willis have a better peak. Has 10th highest prime. Only Feller and Dean have more Black Ink.
   25. Kelly in SD Posted: October 11, 2005 at 09:36 AM (#1676404)
10. Quincy Troupe – PHOM 1960: Long career catcher at a very high level. An All-star 23 different times. The productive phase of his career lasted longer then Mackey’s. 7 times with over 20 win shares is nothing to sneeze at from a catcher. I do not give credit for the year spent boxing, but I do for the War. The huge number of walks is a big plus for me.

11. Alejandro Ohms: Big plus for my system is the 8 years of at least 25 win shares. While he doesn’t have the big peak that I like, his prime his fantastic. I don’t have much more to go on than his thread and the translations.

12. Monte Irvin: Conservative placement. Based purely on Doc’s translations he would be top 5. Tremendous power, hit for average, and took walks. Could play several positions. Has the consistent, long high prime I like.

13. Luke Easter: I give various bits of credit for WWII, NeL play, Industrial League play, and barnstorming. He was a fearsome power hitter who played forever.

14. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942: Only Ruffing and Rixey have a higher career win share total. He is tied with Waddell for best non-consecutive peak. He has the highest prime of any eligible pitcher. He ranks lower than other pitchers because I have a higher standard for earlier pitchers than post deadballers. First in NL twice (1899, 1901). Top 10 pitcher in 1902, 1903, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909.

15. Willard Brown: Reduced a bit because of questions I have about how successful he could have been with the low translated walk levels. Does have the long series of 25+ win shares seasons that my system loves.

Next 10 or so, plus Newbies and Top 10ers.
16. Burleigh Grimes - PHOM 1961:
Had the big years that Ruffing and Rixey did not. 6 times a win shares all-star. Less run support than Ruffing. Black Ink total is 7th among eligibles. Grey Ink is 3rd among eligibles. I urge others to review his candidacy.
17. Dobie Moore:
I give 3 years of credit for Wreckers play. If I gave more, he would be on the ballot. Very high level of performance hitting and fielding for a shortstop. Too bad he jumped out of the whorehouse window and broke his leg.
18. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939):
Yet another long career, high prime player. Nine years with over 25 win shares after you adjust for season length. Could move up next election if Brown moves down.
19. Edd Roush (PHOM 1940):
I’ll take the high average and good power he provided. A good fielder in CF. I still think the group voted in a mistake when they went head-over-heals for Max Carey.
20. Wilbur Cooper:
Stuck on the Pirates during the trough between the successes in the Oughts and the mid-20s. Long consistent career with higher peaks than Ruffing or Rixey.
21. Biz Mackey:
A great fielder, but I like more hitting.
22. Cupid Childs (PHOM 1932):
Still haven’t made up my mind about what sort of boost to give because of how difficult it was to play middle infield during the 1890s. A walking machine. A key member of the great 1890s Clevelend teams.
23. George Burns (PHOM 1938):
Great leadoff hitter. Took walks. Good fielder. Still want him back on the ballot. Has he been lost to history because he played with the Giants before Frisch got there?
24. Tommy Leach:
Long career. Amazing fielder. Key player that allowed the Pirates to get great performances from so many different pitchers during the first 15 years of the century.
25. Red Ruffing:
I see very little difference between him and Lefty Gomez. The Yankees results when they started are very similar. Lefty Gomez pitched better against the better teams. Ruffing pitched worse than the average Yankee pitcher against first division teams.

Rizzuto: Even with 3 years of war credit at 70 win shares, he is about 85th-90th on my list. NO hitting ability.
Clarkson: 60th-65th. The lack of a big peak destroys his candidacy.
Rosen: 55th-60th. Too short a carreer to be any higher. No credit for WWII or anything else.
Beckley: Around 110th-115th. No peak and a very low prime. No seasons with 25 win shares.
Medwick: 26th. 3 big years does not do it for me. There is too much of a disparity between his peak and everything else. 3 years over 30 win shares. 6 others a little over 20.
Rixey: No peak. Low level, but long term prime. Long careers with no peak / little prime do the worst in my system.
Waddell: Too inconsistent. Great peak, but not enough surrounding support. Big strikeout totals do not impress me. If the strikeouts were supposed to help because they prevented balls in play during a time when there were lots of errors, why did Waddell allow slightly more unearned runs than expected based on his team’s performances.
Sisler: About 36th. Peak and prime do not match the players on the ballot. Look at his homepark. Its like Colorado in some years. Look at Hornsby’s splits for example. Remember, the two teams shared a home park.
Kiner: In a giant knot around 30th. I don’t agree with the placement, but I haven’t figured out why he comes out so low. I expected 15th to 20th. His peak and prime are a little lower than the guys on the ballot and the career is short.
   26. Kelly in SD Posted: October 11, 2005 at 09:41 AM (#1676405)
Forgot two:
Griffith: Career doesn't match his cohort group. Lacks long prime that most compatriots have. Ranks about 30th. Very good peak. Just not enought career.

Bell: Long career players who lack big primes and/or peaks do not do well in my system. Here is another example.
   27. sunnyday2 Posted: October 11, 2005 at 12:46 PM (#1676454)
1962

Interesting pairing at the top--two players who rank much more highly for their peaks than for their careers, though Feller would be a slam dunk based solely on career, too. But at his peak he seems to have impressed people about as much as Dizzy Dean and Satchel Paige. Those would be the three great peak pitchers since Lefty.

Jackie is a more subtle and complicated case in at least two ways. First, his ML career taken alone is pretty short so you've got to supply a lot of context (including MLEs). Second, he was one of those guys who did a lot of things well rather than just one big thing, and who therefore is sometimes underrated. In some respects Jackie is of course hardly underrated, I mean, every ML baseball team, including all of those that didn't exist when he played, has retired his number. But I think he is actually underrated in terms of appreciation of his skills.

Needless to say, Rapid Robert and Jackie make my PHoM this year.

1. Jackie Robinson (new, PHoM 1962)
2. Bob Feller (new, PHoM 1962)

3. Dobie Moore (4-2-1 last year, PHoM 1942)--actually, I see Jackie Robinson as a fair comp in about as long a career if you count the Wreckers

4. Joe Medwick (2-3-5, PHoM 1954)
5. George Sisler (3-4-6, PHoM 1938)--the big hitters

6. Tommy Bond (4-5-7, PHoM 1929)--what can I say

7. Pete Browning (5-12-13, PHoM 1961)
8. Monte Irvin (new)
9. Ralph Kiner (6-x)--love those big hitters

10. Rube Waddell (7-7-8, PHoM 1932)
11. Jose Mendez (8-8-9, PHoM 1957)
(11a. John Beckwith)
12. Addie Joss (9-9-10)--more great peak pitchers

13. Ed Williamson (10-10-11, PHoM 1924)--comps include Jimmy Collins and Stan Hack, ahead of the middle IF glut (see #16-19)

14. Willard Brown (11-11-12)--love those big hitters

15. Dick Redding (14-15-x)--moves up due to well-documented shortage of HoM pitchers, but any of the next 5 could just as easily go here
(15a. Stan Hack)

Drops out: Joe Gordon (13-14-15)

16-20. Gordon, Stephens, Doyle, Doerr, Keller
21-25. Trouppe, (Stovey), Duffy, Rixey, Cravath, Tiernan
26-30. Cicotte, Roush, Childs (PHoM 1925), Johnson, Dean
31-35. Oms, Monroe, H. Smith, Sewell, Griffith
36-40. McCormick, Bell, Byrd, Elliott, Bresnahan
41-45. Wilson, Klein, Traynor, Berger, (Keeler), Mullane
46-50. Gomez, A. Cooper, Lundy, Mackey, Ferrell

Required: Ruffing #51, VanHaltren #74.
   28. Rusty Priske Posted: October 11, 2005 at 01:30 PM (#1676492)
PHoM: Jackie Robinson & Bob Feller

1. Jackie Robinson (new)
2. Bob Feller (new)

When I ran my numbers for my initial placement, they were both way too low. Normally I go over everything, trying to find what I ahve missed, but honestly, it doesn't feel worth the effort.

Robinson deserves to be a unanimous #1 for reasons other than his play. If that goes against the rules, so be it.

3. Red Ruffing (1,1,4)

Bumped from an elect-me spot by the two newbies.

4. George Van Haltren (3,4,5)

Most overlooked ont he ballot.

5. Willard Brown (4,6,7)

Also horribly overlooked.

6. Eppa Rixey (6,3,6)
7. Joe Medwick (2,8,8)
8. Jake Beckley (5,2,3)

A trio of guys who are bound to be elected sooner or later...they things aren't looking good for Beckley.

9. Biz Mackey (8,9,9)
10. Cool Papa Bell (7,7,10)
11. Mickey Welch (9,5,1)
12. Tommy Leach (11,11,14)

Four who are unlikely to ever be elected.

13. George Sisler (10,10,11)

Enjoying an upswing of popularity so...who knows?

14. Dobie Moore (12,12,12)
15. Hugh Duffy (13,x,x)

16-20. Roush, Irvin, Rice, Ryan, Childs
21-25. Griffith, Monroe, Powell, Trouppe, Doerr
26-30. White, H.Smith, Streeter, Gleason, Redding
   29. ronw Posted: October 11, 2005 at 03:13 PM (#1676747)
Kelly, #23 and #24, when taken together, have to be two of the more unintentional funny posts I have seen on this thread. After all that praise of Robinson, he only gets #2 on your ballot.

I am not disagreeing with your placement of Feller at #1, but I just wanted to point out that I enjoyed your unexpected twist.
   30. Daryn Posted: October 11, 2005 at 04:32 PM (#1676891)
As I like to do every ten years or so, I have included my top 35. Averill and Jennings were not on it.

1. Bob Feller – probably number 1 without war credit, easily #1 with war credit. Conservative war credit takes him to 320+ wins, which is inner circle. I’d say he is easily a top 20 all-time pitcher.

2. Jackie Robinson – without the reputation and without pre-1947 credit and without taking into account the circumstances under which he compiled his ML stats, Jackie doesn’t make my ballot. With all those things considered, he should be between 2nd and 4th. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt, because a man has few heroes, and Jackie’s one of them.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

5. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment. Nice to see him reaching the top 10.

6. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

7. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Griffith (who is at 17 this week), a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Ferrell.

8. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

9. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

10. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang.

11. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

12. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles.

13. Wes Ferrell – Wes has been hanging around in my 20s for a decade or so. I finally realized the significance of his 100 OPS+.

14. Monte Irvin – Cobb’s MLE’s help, as does the comparison to Griffey. That said, Griffey would be #2 on this ballot. Like Suttles and Beckwith before him, I have some real trouble placing him correctly on the ballot, or off it for that matter.

15. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

16. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

17. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut.

18. Willard Brown – I see him as close to Medwick.

19. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin.

20. Sam Rice – once in a dead heat with Sisler, David C. Jones made me realize the backlog has a lot of players that are better than this guy.

21. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

22. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. I could see him in my theoretical PHOM one day.

23. Joe Gordon/Bobby Doerr

24. Joe Sewell – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense. I don’t see him as a HoMer though.

25. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.

26. Pie Traynor -- just behind Leach. I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

27. Bill Munroe – I think he was pretty good. Any blackball player that is even talked about as among the best 70 years later is pretty good. I’ll take McGraw’s word for it.

28. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. I'll be interested to see how much higher, if at all, I place Koufax.

29. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.

30. Dizzy Dean -- see Koufax comment at Joss placement.

31. Hack Wilson – all peak, no career. Lip Pike lite.

32. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares. Was once on my ballot with Duffy and Ryan, both of whom who have fallen further.

33. Bob Johnson – he’s Bernie Williams offensively (without the postseason records) and if Bernie never played another game, he’d remain in the Hall of the Very Good.

34. Buzz Arlett – can 350+ WS be a correct translation? Like GVH, he pitched some too.

35. Edd Roush – little difference between Buzz, GVH, Roush, Ryan and Duffy, except the era and the contexts. Could rethink any of these guys upwards, but still probably won’t make the ballot until the 80s, if at all.
   31. Daryn Posted: October 11, 2005 at 04:36 PM (#1676897)
He is barely better than Ferrell, Harder, Warneke....

After pressing submit, I noticed I forgot to edit my Griffith comment. I have moved Ferrell ahead of Griffith based on a reevaluation of his hitting.
   32. andrew siegel Posted: October 11, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1677184)
1) Feller (new)--I love Jackie Robinson and fully expected to have him number 1, but, having never looked at Feller's record before, I was simply blown away. He's an easy HoMer w/o/ war credit and is the easiest case for big chunks of high-level war credit I've ever seen. He's Hubbell plus war credit or Grove minus his minor league credit. And to find comps you have to look backwards or jump forward 30 years. An all-time top 15 pitcher, very possibly top 10.

(2) Robinson (new)--Choosing between Robinson and Feller is like choosing between Speaker and Collins or Foxx and Ott, to wit, basically impossible. Jackie has one of the top 25 position player primes of All-Time and a career that is plenty long enough unless you are a pure career voter, allergic to giving credit for anything other than Major League play, or a racist. My coin comes up Feller, but that is not a slight to my All-Time favorite player.

(3) Irvin (new)--I was originally confused by his surprisingly underwhelming Major League record, but our best reconstruction of the full record shows a hitter in the Harry Heilmann-Edgar Martinez range with substantially more defensive value.

(4) Moore(2nd)--Every run through the Negro League records raises my impression. He's George Sisler with a decent SS glove. Basically the same player as John Lloyd, Alex Rodriguez, and Arky Vaughan only with a shorter career.

(5) Van Haltren (1st)--The sum total of his achievements make him fully qualified.

(6) Wes Ferrell (4th)--A seven year run that includes six years as the best or second-best pitcher not named Grove and a few shoulder seasons that add a bit of bulk. Too good a prime to pass up.

(7) Cupid Childs (5th)--Just a little better than Gordon and Doerr, but the ballot is tightly packed and his career length is more impressive when they are all put in context.

(8) Eppa Rixey (6th)--An All-Star enough times to satisfy my thirst for at least some peak and career numbers that are overwhelming (particularly with war credit).

(9) Alejandro Oms (7th)--Broadbased talent, lots of seasons over 25 projected WS, impressive subjective record.

(10) Hugh Duffy (8th)--As I've said before, WS has him with a superb peak and prime and more than 300 adjusted career WS, and I think Bill is closer to the truth here than WARP or OPS.

(11) Red Ruffing (9th)--Rixey plus a bulls#t dump docking for team quality effects that should have but might not have come out in the wash.

(12) George Sisler (10th)--Prime looks a lot better when you adjust for the short war seasons.

(13) Joe Medwick (11th)--Like him, don't love him.

(14) Edd Roush (12th)--Would be in already if he could have stayed in the lineup or if he put up these numbers in the AL.

(15) Jimmy Ryan (14th)--Similar career pattern to Irvin(though at a slightly lower performance level).

Mackey (13th) and Bell (20's) both fall out of the top 25 for now, as I trust the numbers more for the Negro League candidates.

Griifth is around number 30, b/c/ I just don't think he pitched enough innings per season given what his superstar contemporaries were throwing.

I can see the argument for Rizutto but it requires giving him the benefit of the doubt on virtually every assumption or question (value of fielding, prime over career, war credit, no bonus for in-career consistency, etc). I'm sure he's not on my ballot, but I'm not sure whether he ranks with Stephens in the 20's or with Bancroft, Long, and Tinker down between 50 and 75. Right now, I lean towards the latter.

I'm dubious about Clarkson's defense; at best, he's the Larry Doyle of the Negro League candidates. I also have concerns about the holes in his career. He's around number 60 for me right now.

Al Rosen's peak was great, but the reason Hughie Jennings got in on five years of play was that he was more valuable on defense than any other non-pitcher ever. 1940s-1950s 3B simply didn't have enough defensive resposibility to create a 5-year HoMer (unless the guy hit like Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds at his peak). He's out of the top 50; somewhere in Chuck Klein territory.
   33. favre Posted: October 11, 2005 at 07:52 PM (#1677355)
1.Jackie Robinson
2.Bob Feller

From 1949-1953, Robinson was an A+ second baseman averaging about a 147 OPS+, and was considered one of the best baserunners in the game. We’ve elected only two other first basemen with an A+ WS defensive rating: Frankie Frisch and Bid McPhee. Neither could hit like Jackie, nor had to perform under the pressure he did.

Credit for his ’45-’46 seasons gives Robinson the edge over Bob Feller, who retired at No. 3 on the all time strikeout list (2,583) behind Cy Young (2,803) and Walter Johnson (3,509).

3.Alejandro Oms
4.Monte Irvin

Dr C’s/Chris’ MLE’s suggest that Irvin was a similar hitter to Edgar Martinez (right-handed, high-OBP, medium power), but his career shape resembles that of Will Clark, who also posted a career high 175 OPS+ at age 25, and who also struggled with injuries and decline after age 31. Oms makes a big leap up my ballot. He was not quite the hitter that Irvin was, but was more durable and a better fielder.

5.Eppa Rixey
6.Jake Beckley
7.Wally Schang

Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, which is impressive for a catcher.

8.Rube Waddell
9.Jose Mendez
10.Dobie Moore

I know Waddell allowed an inordinate amount of unearned runs, that his RSI index isn’t impressive, and that he was very unreliable. But his top four ERA+ seasons are 179, 179, 165, and 153, and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Arguably better than Feller at his peak.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

It’s become pretty clear to me that Moore is the best shortstop on the board. Not quite the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. He made my ballot for the first time last year; but I should have had him on a couple of decades ago.

11.Cool Papa Bell
12. Tommy Leach

Leach actually has more career WS than any major-league position player on the ballot except for Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Looking back over the years, I’m surprised by how many times I’ve been able to write that. Good hitting, great defense at *two* key positions.

Bell’s projections put him at near 400 WS and 3700 hits. I think we missed the boat on him. I know Max Carey was elected on a strange ballot, but why Carey, and not Bell?

13. Joe Gordon
14. Wes Ferrell
15.Bobby Doerr

Gordon and Doerr were very similar players: great D at 2nd, could hit a little. I had kept Ferrell off the ballot for years, but I finally realized its hard to include Waddell, Mendez, and Newhouser on a ballot finding a place for Wes somewhere.

16.Ned Williamson
17. Biz Mackey

Williamson is still the best third baseman available seventy years after he retired: his main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson has a better peak and considerably more defensive value.
Mackey has been at the bottom of my ballot for a few years, was bumped off this year by a very good incoming class. I am seriously wondering if Quincey Trouppe wasn’t better than Biz.

18.George Sisler
19.Ralph Kiner
20.Gavvy Cravath

These three guys have the same resume: huge peak seasons with short careers that just keep them just off the ballot for now. Kiner’s seasons of 184, 184, and 173 OPS+ really impress me, but not enough to vote for him yet.

21.Joe Medwick
22.Clark Griffith

Medwick is another OF with a relatively short career, but doesn’t have the peak of the guys in front of him. Griffith was a mainstay on my ballot for years, but in my re-evaluation I decided he doesn’t have the peak or the career of the pitchers in front of him.

23-25: Edd Roush, Cupid Childs, Bob Elliott
26-30: Larry Doyle, Dick Redding, Pete Browning, Mike Tiernan, Quincey Trouppe
31-35: Bob Johnson, Vic Willis, George Van Haltren, Roger Bresnahan, Burleigh Grimes

36. Red Ruffing

I think Rixey significnantly better than Ruffing: he pitched for more innings on worse teams with a better ERA+, and that does not take account the time he missed for WWI. Was the jump in Ruffing’s effectiveness from Boston to New York due at least in part to a better defense?
   34. Kelly in SD Posted: October 11, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1677834)
Re: Posts 23 and 24.

Yeah. I just wanted to talk a bit about Jackie. I thought he would be number 1 on my ballot. For some reason, I have never been a fan of Feller so I thought I would stick him in second. But then after looking at the numbers and seeing him being the number one player without war credit, I decided to bite the bullet.

On a book note inspired by this year's candidates, I encourage any voter (or any lurker) to read Jules Tygiel's Baseball's Great Experiment about the background to the breaking of baseball's color line, and Feller's Now Pitching, Bob Feller. Both good books, though Tygiel's is a little more heavy and in depth.
   35. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 11, 2005 at 11:31 PM (#1677919)
I encourage any voter (or any lurker) to read Jules Tygiel's Baseball's Great Experiment about the background to the breaking of baseball's color line

Great book, Kelly. Jackie Robinson: A Biography by Arnold Rampersad is the definitive book on his life, AFAIC.
   36. EricC Posted: October 11, 2005 at 11:32 PM (#1677920)
1962 ballot. Go ahead, John, and write this year's plaques.

1. Jackie Robinson A+ defensive player, with high peak. An obvious HoMer, as all players with similar career age 28+ are HoMers. Peak and career value
extrapolated as similar to Gehringer's. Played 2B only 55 percent of his ML games, less than I realized.

2. Bob Feller Nothing against him; my system concludes that a Gehringer-type career at 2B is a greater accomplishment than a Feller-type pitching career. Late career was only averagish, but helped to build up the career totals.

3. Wally Schang Tremendous career value in his long career, many seasons with > 120 OPS+ as a C. An OBP-heavy OPS, ranking 2nd all time among C in career OBP. Low in-season catcher usage during this era taken into account.

4. Joe Sewell 87.4 WARP3 in 1903 games is arguably a HoM-worthy career, while the number of seasons among the top N players in league is evidence of a HoM-worthy peak. Like with Schang, the answer to AL vs. NL league strength in the 1910s-1920s has a big effect on his all-time standing.

5. Red Ruffing We haven't seen anybody quite like him; a tad below Eddie Plank and a tad above Rixey IMO is the best description. A lower peak than any
other pitcher I've voted for so strongly, but his great career length for his era more than makes up for it. More career WS as a Yankee than any other pitcher.

6. Joe Gordon With all the discussion about WWII credit, will it actually make any difference between anybody getting elected or not? Comparisons with the
performance of similar players by age suggests that he may have missed out on some great seasons. The downside is that Gordon + war credit may look too much like Sewell for some.

7. Bobby Doerr A great 2B; another player who edges up because of war credit.

8. Charlie Keller Won't make the HoM because injuries curtailed his career, but his prime looks like the real deal to me, as a perennial non-Ted Williams all star and arguable MVP. Had his best seasons in the worst-possible time to be a post-1920 slugger and lost nearly two seasons at his probable peak.

9. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in 2826 IP in the 1930-1943 AL.

10. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.

11. Joe Medwick Played like an inner-circle HoMer for 3 years, but like a non-HoMer the rest of his career, averaging out to a borderline HoM candidate. Liking him more as time goes on.

12. Lefty Gomez With "dominant season" pitcher bonuses, his 2 Cy-Young type seasons help to boost him above the other high-peak short career pitchers. Seems like the type who would be a relief ace if he were playing today.

13. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; Gomez seems like a reasonable comparison.

14. Phil Rizzuto A defensive star who lost 3 years of his probable peak to the war, likely costing him a 300 WS career. Gets more war credit in my system than any other player so far.

15. Monte Irvin has the kind of record that makes me nervous: his ML stats age 31+ do not fit the pattern of a HoM corner OF, and an extrapolation of this record wouldn't even get him in the top 100 of my ballot. But I give some credit to historical reputation of NeL players, which is how he makes my ballot.

Mackey was one of the greatest NeL catchers, but is squeezed off again by the newcomers.

Ferrell, Rixey, Griffith, and Van Haltren all made my ballot in past years.

I have Sisler lowest among the returning top-10. While I sympathize with his case, I have to go by what he accomplished, and his prime wasn't quite dominant and long enough.
   37. Jim Sp Posted: October 12, 2005 at 12:44 AM (#1678051)
Robinson #1, Irvin #2, Feller #3, Rizzuto #15, Rosen probably in the top 100. Parnell had a nice career, nowhere near the ballot. Beckley off my ballot? Say it isn’t so…

1)Robinson--Doesn’t take much NL/War credit to put him at #1.
2)Feller--Clearly qualified.
3)Irvin--I have no doubt that the war plus the integration transition hide a lot of his merit.
4)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
5)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
6)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
7)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
8)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
9)Medwick-- PHoM in 1960.
10)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
11)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
12)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
13)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
14)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
15)Rizzuto--Lots of war credit.

Ruffing#22.
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Rixey—#17
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #29.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Beckley— #16.
   38. Howie Menckel Posted: October 12, 2005 at 03:39 AM (#1678499)
1962 ballot, our (and my) 65th

I am convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I like to think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. BOB FELLER - He's spectacularly good at both age 21 and 27, and quite useful at age 17-18 and age 35-36. Better than Rixey, a little, even with FOUR missing or near-missing seasons that likely would have been outstanding. Strikeout totals are ridiculously low for 1952-56, yet he still had decent results. A rare super-fireballer turned no-stuff-but-still-gets-outs guy. Great career, and we know it woulda been so much better without the damn war.
2. JACKIE ROBINSON - A fascinating comp with Feller. One of baseball's best in five of his seasons, and a sixth is only a notch behind. That's quite a list for a mostly-2B. With four more decent seasons, he might be a HOMer without any other credit. He gets none for me for his inspiration to the nation, because that ain't in this project. But clearly the guy woulda been an above-average IF for at least two seasons, being conservative. At that point, he's grabbed the No. 2 spot. Closer to my No. 1 slot than I guess others believe, but it won't matter in the end. Both so much better than the raw career numbers suggest.

3. EPPA RIXEY - I'm among his best friends. Matches Ruffing in top 3-4 years except for hitting credit; then slowly but surely maintains an advantage throughout straight-up comparisons. A little WW I credit as well. Am comfortable putting Eppa in an 'elect me' slot.
4. JAKE BECKLEY - His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Amazing. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelecteds from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted.
5. GEORGE SISLER - The comparison with Medwick in the ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument that his best season was better than George's, but it's debatable and too many voters are using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
6. CLARK GRIFFITH - Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
7. MONTE IRVIN - What a unique career, straddling so many different baseball worlds. Still getting my hands around his career, but if anything he may move up. Surely a great hitter in his early 20s, and I believe he was better, longer, than the rest of the slugger crowd. Only two MLB seasons that blow you away, but they're useful in confirming the likelihood that he was great early. I suspect he's more Ken Griffey than Will Clark, though neither is an insult.
8. RED RUFFING - Have warmed up a bit. A little WW II credit helps, and he really racked up the innings.
9. CUPID CHILDS - I discount the crap out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven 120 OPS+s here. A full-length career for this brutal era is darn impressive.
10. PETE BROWNING - Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Would be No. 1 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
11. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than Medwick; I like mashers like this, and a little war credit.
12. WES FERRELL - Close call, but the mighty bat and the high volume of innings in peak years gets it done. Not Newhouser-esque, though.
13. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of career shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that.
14. COOL PAPA BELL - Allowing for park and steals leading him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd be in the HOM a decade ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
15. JOE MEDWICK - Helped a little by a recent review. Very nice 5, 8 10-year numbers.

OTHERS CONSIDERED CLOSELY
BOB ELLIOTT - Bounced for this year. Slots in a little below where I had Hack; I guess others don't do the same. Seven seasons with 123 or better OPS+ as a 3B, ok two are war discount. 124 OPS+ in 8190 PA, mostly as a 3B. Would move up if Ps weren't so underrepresented.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced for this year. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance wasn't there.
JOSE MENDEZ - Guessing that the Reuschel comparison doesn't do him justice; the Hershiser one might. Hitting credit, but I wish he had pitched more documented innings.
JOE GORDON - Was 14th a few yrs ago. A bit underrated, another with seven years of 120 OPS+ if you give him one for the war.
GAVY CRAVATH - Still deserves more of a look, but at best he noses out Browning for the No. 10 slot, and probably not that. On the radar, though, finally.

NEWBIES
AL ROSEN - I see the Hughie Jennings comp as interesting, but I like Hughie better and he was my No. 15 when elected.
PHIL RIZZUTO - Wow, surprised he's not even close. Even with war credit, just so little here. Davey Concepcion had a better 'peak.'

TOP 10 RETURNEE
BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread - Sisler, one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career; McGuire, played forever as a C but not always that often, or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others.
   39. Adam Schafer Posted: October 12, 2005 at 05:58 AM (#1678566)
1. Bob Feller - I'm not one to give as much war credit as some here, but I do give a bit of credit. Even without the war credit, Feller is #1 on my ballot.

2. Jackie Robinson - I struggled to put him this high. I initially had him 4th below Medwick. 1 year Negro League play, 1 year minor league play and then figuring in 3 years of war credit convinced me that 5 extra years at his level of play makes for a pretty deserving second baseman.

3. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

4. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push him up this high on my ballot.

5. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

6. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

7. Wes Ferrell - Good peak, and just enough career to make me like him

8. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

9. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman.

10. Red Ruffing - Did he pitch for good teams? Absolutely. That's not his fault.

11. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

12. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

13. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

14. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

15. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself
   40. TomH Posted: October 12, 2005 at 02:09 PM (#1678742)
1962 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Bob Feller {new}
Very little war credit. Doesn’t need it, either! My #15 pitcher all-time.
2-Jackie Robinson {new}
He didn’t belong on the all-century team of 25, but he sure belongs in the HoM. Give him a few years of prime credit for NegL/Minors play, move him to 2B instead of 1B in 1947, and his value is way up. My #5 2Bman just ahead of Gehringer, and in my top 60 overall.
3-Clark Griffith (1) [7]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other player in our backlog.
4-Wes Ferrell (2) [4]
Career ERA of 4.04, but his league/park average ERA was 4.72. Then add in the huge bat.
5-Monte Irvin {new}
Could be #3. Could be lower. Like all NegL candidates, it’s a hazy view out there.
6-Joe Sewell (3) [18]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP plus very good defense. Y’all gonna dis Alan Trammell?
7-George Van Haltren (4) [9]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
8-Red Ruffing (5) [2]
Eppa Rixey, plus he could hit. Nice World Series stats.
9-Cool Papa Bell (6) [10]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer. Our MLEs may understate Bell’s real value.
10-Bucky Walters (8) [24]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. Drops a bit this week as I re-consider how much the Red’s gold gloves helped him during his peak (39-40).
11-John McGraw (9) [39]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
12-Joe Gordon (10) [22]
Well, now that I have his Win Share rate correct, he’s on my ballot.
13-Eppa Rixey (11) [6]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?
14-Biz Mackey (12) [5]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
15-Willard Brown (13) [16]
His closest comp seems to be Averill, but not quite the glove.

Bumped off - Frank Chance
Peerless leader. Managing may have Cost him playing time. A key cog on some dominant teams, and played well in many World Series. Probably more valuable defensively than most systems credit him for.

Phil Rizzuto
Just what I needed, another tough call!

---------------------
tentative 16-24: Chance, Beckley, Sisler, Childs, Medwick, Rizzuto, Monroe, Kiner, Doerr

Ducky and Sisler are consensus top10-ers, but I suppose that’s due to my valuing ‘peak’ less than most other voters. Also that I put little stock in Sisler’s great rep, in that I believe it was biased by the old-timers’ love for batting average.
   41. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: October 12, 2005 at 08:32 PM (#1679825)
1. Bob Feller. According to RSI, his 1946 season is the only liveball season where a pitcher got jobbed out of 30 wins by his run support. Tremendous tremendous pitcher and an all-time great workhorse, until he apparently damaged his arm.

2. Jackie Robinson. By my reckonin', the most similar batter to him from age 28 onward is Frankie Frisch, except the future Vets Committee Madman had less power, fewer walks, and far fewer stolen bases.

3. Clark Griffith. Bill James didn't list him in his Top 100 pitchers, let alone his top 100 players. Type in his name at b-ref and it takes you to his managing career. Never mentioned among the greatest. He just might be the most underrated player in baseball history.

4. Cool Papa Bell. I try to balance the info in the threads with general reputation. Also, I think the MLEs might underrate him (see my comment about Ichiro in the Bell thread).

5. Monte Irvin. Yea, I do think he was that good. With apologies to Buck O'Neill, Irvin's the last suriving great Negro Leaguer.

6. Biz Mackey. Better than Schang, and I have Schang on the ballot. IIRC, he's the #1 choice of both experts and players in the "Cool Papas and Double Duties" book as best Negro Leaguer not in Cooperstown.

7. Eppa Rixey. I like the big long career guys (that's the only reason Eppa even makes my ballot). I'm giving him a little WWI credit. I see him as not quite as good in his era as Mickey Welch was in his era.

8. Jake Beckley. Not a real peak, but a very long and very deep prime. Add that in with his career value and here he is.

9. Wes Ferrell. He was a monster for a while, and lasted just long enough to rack up some decent career numbers.

10. Ralph Kiner. Ridiculous prime. The Pete Browning of the 20th century.

11. Pete Browning. With the exception of Kiner, the best pure hitter out there. Even adjusting for quality of competition and he's a monster.

12. Joe Gordon. Childs, Gordon, and Doyle are all very close in my mind.

13. Larry Doyle. Bat more than makes up for his glove. The Jeff Kent of his day?

14. Ernie Lombardi. Great hitting prime at a tough position to hit at. Terrible defense, though.

15. George Van Haltren Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch. Looking at him again I can't quite figure why I liked him as much as I did, so he falls.

16-25 (not really ordered): Willard Brown, Geoge Sisler, Jimmy Ryan, Edd Roush, Joe Mediwck, Bob Johnson, Wally Schang, Alejandro Oms, Mickey Welch, Cupid Childs.

Comments:

Joe Medwick - great hitter at a position full of great hitters. Needed a few more years or something else to distinguish him.

Red Ruffing - too hard to figure out where he ends and his teammates begin.

George Sisler - Kicked him up a few weeks ago, but he's been falling since. He was to first base what Medwick was to LF. A great player, and great hitter, who just misses having enough to distinguish him from the mob.

Cupid Childs - Great force, but I discount that AA year something fierce.

Is there anyway to get rid of live preview?
   42. Sean Gilman Posted: October 13, 2005 at 07:35 AM (#1681008)
1962

1. Bob Feller (-)--He’s good.

2. Jackie Robinson (-)--Him too.

3. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares. According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. Just how big is your AA discount? (1927)

4. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Cupid Childs (3)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

6. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

7. Clark Griffith (5)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

8. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

9. George Sisler (7)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

10. Cool Papa Bell (8)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

11. Eppa Rixey (9)--Griffith’s got a big edge in peak, and his career value doesn’t make up the difference. It does give him the edge over the short/career/high peak pitchers though.(1960)

12. Hugh Duffy (12)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.

13. Carl Mays (11)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell.

14. George Van Haltren (12)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually.

15. Wes Ferrell (13)--Great peak, just wish it lasted longer.

16. Biz Mackey (14)
17. Willard Brown (15)
18. Joe Sewell (16)
19. Monte Irvin (-)
20. Edd Roush (17)
21. Alejandro Oms (18)
22. Quincy Trouppe (-)
23. Red Ruffing (19)
24. Vern Stephens (20)
25. Roger Bresnahan (21)
26. Joe Medwick (23)
27. Bob Elliott (24)
28. Ed Williamson (25)
29. Jose Mendez (26)
30. Bobby Doerr (27)
   43. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 13, 2005 at 02:20 PM (#1681234)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Bob Feller-P (n/e): I decided to go with Feller over Robinson, but it's close and it's definitely not meant to be a slight to Jackie. I gave Feller WWII credit, but at a much lower rate of innings than he had pre-WWII. Best AL pitcher for 1939. Best ML pitcher for 1940.

2) Jackie Robinson (n/e): His placement here is based on solely his career numbers and appropriate MLE credit, not on his pioneer or flashiness stature. He was that good. Best NL second baseman for 1948. Best NL left fielder for 1954. Best ML second baseman for 1949, 1951, and 1952.

3) Monte Irvin-CF/LF/SS/3B (n/e): I'm convinced that he was a great player and should go into the HoM fairly quickly. Thanks to Eric and Chris for their great work!

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Alejandro Oms-CF (2): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

6) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (3): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

7) Cupid Childs-2B (4): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

8) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (5): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

9) George Van Haltren-CF/P (6): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

10) Tommy Bridges-P (7): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

11) Jake Beckley-1B (8): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

12) Wally Schang-C (9): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (10): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Mickey Welch-P (11): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Pete Browning-CF/LF (12): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

Medwick, Ruffing, Ferrell, Griffith, Rixey, Mackey, Sisler, and Bell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   44. Mike Webber Posted: October 13, 2005 at 03:24 PM (#1681339)
I use Win Shares, career first, bonus for peak, and try to balance out the positions a little.

1)BOB FELLER
2)JACKIE ROBINSON Its almost too close to call between 1 and 2, I’ll give Feller the edge on a little bit better showing in the MVP voting, and War Credit.
3)EDD ROUSH –314 win shares, with a couple of missing seasons.
4)JOE MEDWICK – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified
5) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak.
6)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Huge career value, decided that there is too much here to ignore. One of the candidates that makes me wish I’d have gotten in on the party sooner.
7)COOL PAPA BELL – Would most Negro League experts rate Bell higher than Irvin? I am going with the notion that Bell is better than Irvin.
8)RED RUFFING – About the same as Rixey, however I think his weak peak is more the norm for his era than Rixey.
9)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list, I am going to put him ahead of Mays, because his peak numbers are more unique a decade after Mays.
10)EPPA RIXEY -
11)RALPH KINER – his peak doesn’t move him ahead of the other Ofers that have 60 to 80 more career win shares.
12)CARL MAYS – With additional emphasis on total career and less on peak, I slide him behind the Ruffing/Rixey combo.
13)BOBBY DOERR – War credit penalty may not be docking him enough.
14)GEORGE SISLER
15)ROGER BRESNAHAN –Best catcher between Ewing and Hartnett.

16-30 Gordon, Dean, Berger, Rizzuto, Rosen, Traynor, Warneke, Elliott, Lazzeri, Irvin, H. Wilson, Waddell, Schang, Cooper.

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang, Griffith – about 40th.

Other than the top 1-2, I see Rizzuto, Rosen and Irvin all as just off the ballot guys, if we ever do catch up on the back log, they’ll slip on eventually.
   45. Dolf Lucky Posted: October 13, 2005 at 04:57 PM (#1681549)
My first ballot consisting solely of 20th century players...

1 (-)Bob Feller
2 (-)Jackie Robinson--Obviously, both have air tight cases. And obviously, it's difficult to compare a pitcher (whose career was interrupted by the war) and an infielder (whose career was delayed by racism). However, through no fault of his own, Jackie Robinson is forever linked to the inane practice of all of MLB retiring his number. That's a big time demerit in my eyes.

3 (1)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

4 (2)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

5 (4)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

6 (3)Red Ruffing--I can't believe he hasn't been elected yet.

7 (-)Monte Irvin--Like everyone else, I have no idea exactly where he belongs. His talent is probably higher than a #7 slot, but some of that falls through the cracks. I think he'll eventually get in, and I'd be comfortable with that.

8 (6)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

9 (5)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

10 (8)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

11 (7)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

12 (11)Vern Stephens--After further review, holds up better than Ralph Kiner

13 (9)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

14 (10)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher.

15 (12)Ralph Kiner--One of my favorite stat sheets to look up as a kid. I can't believe I've got him this low, but he just doesn't stack up against the greats.

Dropping out: Dom Dimaggio, Rube Waddell, Joe Gordon.

Top 10 omissions: Biz Mackey has been lapped by catchers who are documentable and elite. George VanHaltren...I didn't like him the first time he was in vogue. Eppa Rixey lacks the requisite peak. Clark Griffith appears too similar to the 2nd tier glut of pitchers. George Sisler is in the 16-20 range, and could conceivably reappear. When did the sign under Cool Papa Bell's name change from "Grossly overrated" to "Appropriately venerated by history"?
   46. Jim Sp Posted: October 13, 2005 at 05:39 PM (#1681667)
When did the sign under Cool Papa Bell's name change from "Grossly overrated" to "Appropriately venerated by history"?

When we elected Max Carey.
   47. Brad G Posted: October 13, 2005 at 05:46 PM (#1681693)
1962 Ballot:

1.Jackie Robinson

2.Bob Feller- Could go either way on the top two. Both were truly great in such different ways.

3.Joe Medwick- Career OPS+ = 134, tons of Ink, the one truly great year was enough to boost his peak/prime numbers above his peers.

4.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

5.Bobby Doerr- Career WARP3 = 98.9, Excellent defensive player.

6.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

7.Edd Roush- No matter what system I use, it always trends toward CFs. Roush put up some strong numbers, but probably not enough to get him in.

8.Tommy Leach- A big benefactor in my latest ratings system… particularly helped by his outstanding defenseive rating.

9.Cupid Childs- Questionable whether he was better than Gordon, but I don’t think he was quite at Doerr’s level.

10.Cool Papa Bell- By most subjective accounts, one of the greatest of the Negro Leaguers.

11.Jimmy Ryan- Still hanging around after all these years.

12.Joe Gordon- Excellent fielding 2B. Probably the best 2B of the 1940’s.

13.Joe Sewell- Yet another nice-hitting, very good defensive SS.

14.Monte Irvin- Almost let Irvin slip by me. I confess the jury’s still out on him. Will continue reading the excellent threads developed here.

15.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941. And he only had 6 toes! The entrance of Feller on the ballot has knocked the other pitchers down a bit.

----------------------------------------------------

16.Bob Elliott- Hard to pinpoint anything exceptional in Elliott’s career stats, but the numbers are consistently above average.
17.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Not only could he hit (1920 and 1922 being his standout years), but he had speed too, leading the league in SBs four times. Pretty good pitcher as well.
18.Willard Brown
19.Larry Doyle
20.Bucky Walters
21.Bingo DeMoss

Wes Ferrell ranks at #24
Biz Mackey, the best of the eligible Catchers, holds steady at #22.
Clark Griffith and Eppa Rixey fall to #34 and #35, respectively. There are so many pitchers I still favor over these two, including Dean, Waddell, Willis, Redding, Cicotte, and Grimes.

Thanks!
   48. Rick A. Posted: October 14, 2005 at 04:13 AM (#1682717)
Had less time than I thought to evaluate this ballot. Had a business trip earlier in the week and computer problems which limited my time to analyze the new players.

PHOM
Jackie Robinson
Bob Feller

1962 Ballot
1.Jackie Robinson – The classiest, gutsiest player in MLB history. Elected PHOM in 1962
2.Bob Feller – Compares very well to Hubbell. Elected PHOM in 1962.
3.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
6.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
7.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
8.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1958.
9.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1960
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Still in line to be a PHOM.
11.Burleigh Grimes – Moves up a little. Higher peak than Rixey.
12.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
13.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information.
14.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
15.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings..

New Eligibles
Monte Irvin Trying to be conservative until I get a better handle on him. Just misses my ballot.
Al Rosen Good match with McGraw. Both missed too much time to make my ballot.
Phil Rizzuto I grew up listening to Phil and Bill White on WPIX. They are my all time favorite broadcasting duo. Loved listening to his stories about all time Yankee greats and where to find the best cannolis. As a shortstop, I have Phil ranked around Pesky, Long and Bancroft.
Bus Clarkson and Hank Thompson Didn't get an opportunity to evaluate them this week. Hope to do so by next week.

Required Disclosures
George Sisler and Joe Medwick Just miss my ballot
Cool Papa Bell Underrated by this group. Phenomenal speed and defense. Better than Carey. Not far from my ballot.
Red Ruffing and Eppa Rixey Both players drop due to my new emphasis on peak value for pitchers.
George Van Haltren Good player but he's below Fielder Jones on my ballot.
Clark GriffithOverachiever and better than his stats show, but doesn't rate well in my system.

Off the ballot
16-20 Irvin, Kiner, Duffy, Walters, Oms
21-25 Sisler, Medwick, Dean, Bresnahan, Bell
26-30 Roush, Cooper, Mays, Johnson, Waddell
31-35 McGraw, Rosen, Leach, Ruffing, Cravath
36-40 Keller, Elliott,Schang, Stephens, Gordon
41-45 Doyle, Poles, Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr
46-50 F. Jones, Van Haltren, Rixey, Taylor, Trouppe
   49. DavidFoss Posted: October 14, 2005 at 02:34 PM (#1683091)
Major PC issues this week. I don't have access to my usual list of .txt files that I can modify and tweak and re-save. Luckily its a very non-controversial election -- turning out to be a coronation of sorts for Feller and Robinson. I hope to have the PC thing figured out by next time but for now it won't turn on.

1961 was a memorable year. Maris, Expansion, Yankees... The Reds were a nice story as well, outperforming pythag by 10 games to sneak in a pennant.

1962 Ballot

1. Feller
2. JRobinson -- going to do the cop-out and have one comment for both. They are each so far ahead of my backlog that they almost deserve to be co-#1. Feller is easily the best pitcher between Hubbell and Spahn and possibly better than that (Grove & Seaver?). Jackie is a top-tier middle infielder and I like infielders.
3. Clark Griffith (1) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
4. Larry Doyle (2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning, but still has a core group of followers. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
5. Cupid Childs (3) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
6. Biz Mackey (4) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
7. John McGraw (5) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
8. Dick Redding (6) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
9. Wes Ferrell (7) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
10. Monte Irvin (ne) -- Conservative first placement ahead of Kiner. He can't win this week, will look closer once my PC is fixed.
11. Ralph Kiner (8) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good. Starting him just above Cravath.
12 . Gavvy Cravath (9) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
13. Joe Gordon (10) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
14. Charley Jones (11) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
15. George Sisler (12) -- Welcome back Jorge! Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
16. Roger Bresnahan (13) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
17. Joe Sewell (15) -- Back to the ballot for Joe. The positional superiors from the later generation have all been inducted.


18-22. BElliott, BJohnson, Ruffing, Medwick, Doerr,
23-28. Rixey, Rosen, Chance, Lombardi, Beckley, WBrown,
29-34. Browning, Leach, Welch, Moore, Rizzuto, VStephens

A messy ballot, please let me know if something is missing.
   50. Mark Donelson Posted: October 14, 2005 at 04:06 PM (#1683315)
This new interface is killing me...the live preview doesn't work properly, so I hope this works...

1962 ballot

1. Jackie Robinson (pHOM 1962). He’d be high on my ballot just on his Dodger years, but with NeL credit and war credit and minor league credit added in, he ends up just below the very top tier of 2Bs all-time, and that catapults him to the top spot for me.

2. Bob Feller (pHOM 1962). I wasn’t quite as impressed with his numbers as I thought I’d be, to be honest (at least, before war credit). But that’s just expectations—I had this idea of him as inner-circle, corner-locker. He’s still another no-doubter, especially with credit for those prime years he missed.

3. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I appear to be his best friend. I know about the unearned runs, but the impressive peak, the PRAA, and the strikeouts just dazzle me. He’s just barely ahead of Ferrell.

4. Wes Ferrell (pHOM 1945). Another great pitching peak.

5. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. And what a peak!

6. José Méndez</b> (pHOM 1960). Would have loved to see him pitch.

7. Joe Medwick (pHOM 1958). The great peak is enough.

8. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Still my favorite of the remaining CFs.

9. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another infielder with a great peak.

10. Vic Willis</b> (pHOM 1961). Underrated. Peak is strong, and lots of strikeouts.

[10a. Dazzy Vance. I wasn’t as high on him as many, but he’s next in line for my pHOM once there’s a year without stellar new candidates.]

11. Ralph Kiner.</b> He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

>12. Willard Brown. Great hitter, even if he wasn’t a Moneyball player.

>13. Ed Williamson. I used to say he was by far the best of the remaining 3Bs, but Rosen came pretty close. Not quite close enough, though.

>14. Quincy Trouppe. All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining catchers, at least for this peak voter.

15. Bucky Walters. Another underrated pitcher with an appealing peak.
   51. Mark Donelson Posted: October 14, 2005 at 04:16 PM (#1683341)
Well, some strange bolding issues, but not too bad overall. Here's the rest:

16-20: Rosen, Irvin, Keller, Sisler, Gordon
21-25: Berger, Mackey, Doyle, Bresnahan, McCormick
26-30: C. Jones, Doerr, Dean, H. Wilson, Oms
31-35: Browning, Redding, Cicotte, Poles, Leach
36-40: Roush, Cravath, Chance, Mays, Ryan
41-45: Burns, Dunlap, Pesky, Welch, Van Haltren
46-50: Griffith, Veach, Rizzuto, B. Johnson, Grimes

EXPLANATIONS (required and otherwise):

•Ruffing. Obviously not a peak voter’s cup of tea. Not in my top 50.

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, so he’s at #22.

•Griffith. I like him better than Rixey and Ruffing, but there’s only limited appeal here for a peak voter. He’s at #46.

•Rixey. Well above Ruffing, but still no peak to speak of. Just outside my top 50.

•Sisler. He was previously on my ballot, ahead of Medwick. My analysis of Irvin somehow made me look at him again, and I decided I was overvaluing him, giving too much extra value for the fact that WS appears to underestimate his defense. He drops a lot, from #5 last year to #19.

•Van Haltren. The Clark Griffith of hitters. Again, not enough peak; he’s at #45.

•Bell. As with Mackey, the numbers and the MLEs don’t impress much, and I’m unwilling to put him higher just on rep. Not in my top 50.

•Rosen. It’s true that a similarly short peak from Dizzy Dean didn’t get him this far, but Dean didn’t play 3B, a badly underrepresented position. The lack of anything other than the few good/great years eventually convinced me he didn’t belong on this year’s ballot, but he’s right on the edge at #16. I seem to like him better than most.

•Irvin. The latest MLEs convinced me to bring him up this high, but I’m still a little underwhelmed, at least compared to most voters. Still, at #17, he’s in good position to climb my ballot eventually. I imagine he’ll be elected before that happens, actually.

•Rizzuto. The mostly defensive candidates don’t often impress me (and I suppose 48th isn’t that impressive, in the end), but he looks a lot like Pesky to me. I think his defense, along with one fantastic offensive season and some good ones, outweighs Vern Stephens’s offense.

•Clarkson. Very good, but seems short of the Pesky/Rizzuto/Stephens group. I have him somewhere around Dave Bancroft and Tony Lazzeri, and well out of my top 50.

•Kinder. I’m keeping him around, for comparison with other relief pitchers as the evaluation of them begins, but on first analysis he seems well short of what I’d need to vote for him. Just outside my top 50, for now, anyway.

•Pollet, Parnell, and Konstanty had some nice years, but nowhere near what they’d need to get near my top 50. The rest of the newbies are, well, even further back.
   52. Thane of Bagarth Posted: October 14, 2005 at 04:47 PM (#1683439)
1962 Ballot:

1) Bob Feller
With war credit I’ve got him down as the eighth best pitcher to be eligible for the HoM. Without war credit he falls to 9. 107 career WARP3. 60.7 WARP3 & 151 WS in his top 5 years.

2) Jackie Robinson
What I wouldn’t give to have been able to see him play. Fifth best second baseman of all time (through 1962) behind Collins, Hornsby, Lajoie, and Gehringer. I can’t imagine anyone will come close to 19 steals of home any time soon.

3) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (103.3 WARP3, 992 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

4) Bucky Walters
89.6 WARP3, 251 WS. An excellent, underrated pitcher. Similar numbers to Ferrell, but with slightly less peak and more career.

5) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” Even if he was only the third best 1B of the Negro Leagues, he deserves to join the HoM.

6) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

7) Jose Mendez
Possibly better than Redding.

8) Dizzy Trout
87.4 WARP3, 228 WS, Top 5 PRAA/PRAR: 152/447. Here’s a guy where it seems like the war discount you use will greatly affect his placement. I’m ok with the BP discounts, so he comes out high on my ballot.

9) Dutch Leonard
91.9 WARP3, 233 WS. This guy racked up a surprising amount of career value. 956 all-time PRAR ranks third only to Feller and Ruffing.

10) Monte Irvin
I’m comfortable putting him ahead of the next closest outfielders (Medwick, GVH, CPB, W. Brown), but I’m not entirely convinced he shouldn’t be #3 on this ballot. I’ll stay conservative for now.

11) Joe Medwick
He’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible hitter other than Robinson. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

12) George Van Haltren
Clearly HoM-worthy by Win Shares, borderline at best by WARP3…I’ve got him somewhere in-between.

13) Bobby Doerr
He’s at the top of the middle infielder heap. In the reverse of the GVH case, Win Shares don’t favor him as much as WARP3.

14) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories made him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor keeps him on the ballot.

15) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Of eligible pitchers, his 5-year PRAR (457) is 2nd only to Dean.
------------------------------------------
The Rest of the Top 50

16) Willard Brown—As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

17) Eppa Rixey—Loads of career value keep him near the ballot…he’s on one year, off the next.

18) Bobo Newsom—Low peak and a meager OPS+, but some decent career value nonetheless. 81.9 WARP3, 237 WS, 939 PRAR.

19) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 44.3 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
20) Dizzy Dean—493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. Not much beyond the peak, sort of the anti-Rixey.
21) Pete Browning
22) Spot Poles
23) Alejandro Oms
24) Joe Gordon
25) Bill Monroe
26) Rube Waddell
27) Lon Warneke
28) Jimmy Ryan
29) Charlie Keller
30) Dick Lundy
31) Leon Day
32) Dave Barnhill
33) Tommy Bridges
34) Urban Shocker
35) Ralph Kiner
36) Clark Griffith
37) Mel Harder
38) Paul Derringer
39) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty ever(?)
40) Dominic DiMaggio
41) Ed Ciccotte
42) Dobie Moore
43) Tommy Leach
44) Jack Quinn
45) Ray Dandridge
46) Vic Willis
47) Harry Hooper
48) Jim McCormick
49) Bob Johnson
50) Ed Roush
Remaining Consensus Top 10 & Notable New Eligibles
56) George Sisler—The good part of his career didn’t last long enough for me to rank him higher.
57) Phil Rizzuto—A solid career, plus some war credit, but still not enough to come within shouting distance of my ballot.
58) Biz Mackey—Highest ranked catcher on my list. I’m just not impressed enough by his batting to get him much closer to the ballot.
65) Jake Beckley—I’ve gotten more career-friendly in my voting in recent years, but his 33.8 top 5 WARP3 is still not enough peak value.
76) Bus Clarkson—I was surprised that he was that good. Not HoM-worthy, but a good player I hadn’t really heard much about.

100+:
Al Rosen—Two outstanding years and one good year aren’t enough.
Ellis Kinder, Howie Pollet, Mel Parnell: Three intriguing pitchers that come out rather close in my rankings. Parnell’s 1949 season was amazing—122 PRAR and yet he walked 134 while striking out only 122.
   53. Trevor P. Posted: October 14, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1684360)
This year features a look at my constantly shifting below-ballot rankings. Feel free to point out that I must've been on illegal substances for placing player x above player y, if you feel so inclined.

1) Bob Feller (–). Some here have expressed a bit of disappointment when looking at Rapid Robert’s statistical record. For me, it’s the opposite. I think I must’ve been confusing him with Bob Lemon, as it wasn’t easy for a nine-year-old to keep track of all the Bobs in Earl Weaver Baseball. Anyways, one of the all-time great pitchers.
2) Jackie Robinson (–). I have him as the 5th best 2B of all-time, just ahead of Gehringer.
3) Monte Irvin (–). Similar to Buck Leonard.
4) George Van Haltren (1). Consolidated league. Long career. OPS+ above 120, tilting slightly in the OBP direction. Played CF. Pitched. Could steal a base. Top-ten in triples seven times. Lots of little stuff that, put together, makes a HOMer.
5) Eppa Rixey (2). Of eligible pitchers, only Mickey Welch has more innings pitched and an ERA+ over 110. And don't forget about WW1 credit.
6) Jake Beckley (3). 125 OPS+ in 10,000 AB when adjusted to a 154-game schedule. Was mentally forgetting that he, like GVH, played in the one-league 1890s.
7)Red Ruffing (5). Have decided WARP3 is overrating his hitting contributions. He's still the type of player I like, though not as much as when he first debuted.
8) Quincy Trouppe (6). Have decided he’s the best available catcher. Higher estimated in-season innings than Schang, which isn’t a big thing for a career voter like myself, but it serves to separate the two.
9) Cupid Childs (9). Was best available 2B before Robinson debuted on ballot. Played in an era that was much more perilous for middle IF, and posted similar stats to Doerr, Gordon, et al.
10) Bob Elliott (7). Like Medwick/Johnson, the Hack/Elliott comparison is one more reason I hesitate to use win shares exclusively. Offensively they look about equal, with Elliott having a stronger peak. Defensively, Elliott's OF play (although not terrible by any account I've read) means he's slotting in at #8 whereas Hack made it to #2 on my ballot.
11) Edd Roush (8). Even playing in a weak league, he posted some strong stats, and being a career voter I think I care less about whether he always played full seasons as long as the overall numbers are there.
12) Cannonball Dick Redding (10). I don’t think he’s that far off from Paige, and he sure blows Leon Day out of the water. Second best NeL pitcher after Smokey Joe Williams counts for enough to offset the ML-equivalent 115 ERA+ (which is unspectacular) in about 3,600 innings.
13) Wally Schang (11). Dropped down in favor of Trouppe. Still think we’re placing too much importance on his in-season stats and not looking at the overall picture. He was a catcher, after all!
14) Alejandro Oms (13). OPS+ is better than GVH, though he played more corner outfield and against lesser opponents.
15) Jimmy Ryan (12). Garnered more votes than GVH, once upon a time.

16-20: Bridges, Sisler, Ferrell, Walters, Mackey
21-25: Griffith, Gordon, Cicotte, Duffy, Sewell
26-30: Doyle, Medwick, Kiner, Waddell, Bus Clarkson
31-35: Grimes, Doerr, Bell, Brown, Lazzeri
36-40: Willis, Bresnahan, Trout, Browning, Stephens

Phil Rizzuto is behind Dick Lundy, Dave Bancroft, and Rabbit Maranville on my list of shortsops. He’d probably be somewhere in the mid-70s, if I were to go that far.

History is littered with players who were great for three or four years, and Al Rosen is just the latest one. Below Rizzuto.
   54. Chris Cobb Posted: October 15, 2005 at 02:46 AM (#1684739)
1962 Ballot

Three new arrivals land at the top of the ballot.

1. Bob Feller (n/e). I have Feller slightly ahead of Jackie, but it’s close.
2. Jackie Robinson (n/e). This placement is without any war credit (but with MLE credit for 1945 and 1946) as is Feller’s. Both could get war credit, but I’m not sure how much should go to each. Since they rank above everybody else even without that credit, I’ve decided simply not to worry about it. If I ever try to rank them among the top 100 players of all time, I’ll return to that issue, but for now, it just doesn’t matter.

3. Monte Irvin (n/e). Better than I realized. His peak isn’t as large as his rate stats suggest it would be because he was less durable than some, but he was more successful in this respect than, say, Edd Roush or Joe Dimaggio. Some have expressed skepticism about his greatness given his relatively weak major-league numbers, but he matches pretty well against the outfielders elected to the HoM when his numbers from his 30s are compared to theirs. In any case, we know that he had a series of injury problems during this part of his career, and when he did play, he put up numbers that are quite consistent with the truly outstanding peak that the NeL translations show. Since these are the years of the NeL that were used to create the conversion factors, those numbers should be quite reliable, and most of Irvin’s NeL seasons are very well documented: we have 200+ at bats for many of them. We have better documentation for him than for any NeL star since the 1920s, really. I rank him, therefore, exactly where my numbers put him, with WWII credit for 1943-45. He’s not quite an all-time great like Jackie, but he’s not a borderline case. I expect when the electorate fully sizes him up, he will be an easy choice with Campanella in 1963, becoming our second living HoMer.

4. Clark Griffith (1). Received the most elect-me votes in 1961! Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
5. Eppa Rixey (2). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he is now getting closer to election at last. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close.
6. Wes Ferrell (3). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer to WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century major-league pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM. (Will Bert Blyleven be the second? Ray Brown, of course, is the first twentieth-century pitcher to reach the HoM but not the HoF.)
7.Alejandro Oms (4). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. I think he’s the best outfield candidate eligible. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player. Given the possibility that we are missing a season or two of major-league quality seasons at the beginning of his career, I continue to see Oms as the top outfielder candidate.
8. Red Ruffing. (5) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
9. Biz Mackey (6). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
10. Burleigh Grimes (7). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, as Grimes joins Rixey, Roush, and Cravath as representatives of that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 10 ballot spots.
11. Willard Brown (9). Probably the #4 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard, and Monte Irvin. More raw power than Leonard and Irvin, I think (though less, apparently, than the mysterious Luke Easter), but his lack of plate discipline places him behind the more complete hitters. The plate-discipline issues make him very hard to rate.
12. Joe Gordon (10) I think I’ve been underrating infielders a bit. An eventual HoMer, in my view, a bit better than Doerr, who should also be an eventual HoMer.
13.Bobo Newsom (11). My system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1938 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border. I hope Newsom won’t get passed by without a serious look.
14. Edd Roush (12). Great ballplayer, but lots of time out of the lineup keeps him from being higher. Slips a few spots, but stays on ballot.
15. Gavvy Cravath. (13) Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding keeps him from being higher. WARP’s coolness towards him drops him slightly this time as I try to take a more balanced look at outfield candidates.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Joe Medwick. See #25 below
Cool Papa Bell. See #26 below
George Van Haltren. See #23 below
Jake Beckley. See #50 below
   55. Chris Cobb Posted: October 15, 2005 at 02:48 AM (#1684745)
Off-Ballot

16. George Sisler (14). Truly outstanding peak, but outside of that seven-year run he was not generally an above-average player. Strong class of 1962 pushes him back off of my ballot.
17. Jose Mendez. (15) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention.
18. Dick Redding. (16) Still paired with Mendez, though the ballot line splits them this year.
19. Ralph Kiner . (17) He’s above my all-time in-out line but not on my ballot yet. Just ahead of Doerr both among 1940s stars and in my all-time list.
20. Bobby Doerr (18). Brilliant fielder; I’m liking him more now that I see he really was one of the top players of the 1940s.
21. Buzz Arlett. (19) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
22. Rube Waddell (20). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, Waddell seems well ahead of Joss and Dean.
23. George Van Haltren (21). Right on the all-time in/out line for me. If we get deep into the backlog in the next decade, he’ll get back onto my ballot.
24. Tommy Leach (22). Ditto.
25. Joe Medwick. (23). Fuller analysis shuffles the outfielders above him in my rankings a bit, but leaves me still unenthusiastic about his candidacy. He isn’t obviously unqualified, but his main distinguishing feature is his peak according to win shares, and i think it’s overrated. I’d take Oms, Averill, Brown, Roush, Cravath, Arlett, Van Haltren, and Leach first. Sadly, many of those more deserving players may never be elected. Time will tell.
26. Cool Papa Bell (24). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville. Note to self: Bell really needs a new study now that a lot more MeL data is available.
27. Bill Byrd (25). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher. He enters the ballot with contemporary Mel Harder, whom he betters, in my view, by a small amount, mostly on peak.
28. Rabbit Maranville. (26) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
29. Bucky Walters. (27) Chris J.’s RSIs move Walters ahead of Trout. Pitchers have more responsibility than other players to have their wins match their RS/RA ratio.
30. Leroy Matlock (28). A a very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
31. Larry Doyle (29). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
32. Spotswood Poles (30). Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
33. Bob Elliott</b> . (31) Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. The slope of the rankings is close to flat once one passes 25, so a small change in my view of Elliott could jump him up a long way. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I can’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now. The lower end of the 1940s group—Doerr, Byrd, Walters, Elliott, Trouppe, Keller, D. Dimaggio—is really hard to figure out.
34. Mickey Welch. (32) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again. This ballot is unbelievably deep.
35. Carl Mays. (33) Wes Ferrell lite.
36. Urban Shocker. (34) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
37. Bus Clarkson (n/e). Perhaps the best player to get no support from the experts in _Cool Papas and Double Duties_. My ranking system using Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs places Clarkson virtually even with Bobby Doerr, but I think the good doctor’s MLEs are a little bit higher than what my own would be, so until I’ve a chance to run my own numbers for Clarkson, I’m going to place him conservatively at the rear of the borderline infielder group for the 1940s: Gordon (12), Doerr (20), Elliott (33), and Clarkson (37). These four are all very close in value, but when they are shuffled in with 70 years worth of borderline candidates, they end up separated by 25 slots top-to-bottom.
38. Bob Johnson (35). Career value is better than Medwick’s, I think, but even WARP1 agrees that his peak and prime trail that of his similar contemporaries Medwick and Averill. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but he’s close.
39. Hugh Duffy. (36) Another guy whom I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now nearly down to 40 in the rankings. Youch!
40. Jimmy Ryan (37)
41. Roger Bresnahan (38)
42. Wally Schang (39)
43. Quincy Trouppe (40).

44-48. Cupid Childs, George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller, Charley Jones
49-53. Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley, Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell, Dick Lundy
54-58. Mel Harder, Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper, Johnny Pesky
59-63. Lave Cross, Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Bobby Veach
64-68. Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson, Phil Rizzuto
69-73. Tommy Bond, Vern Stephens, Jim McCormick, George J. Burns, Jack Fournier
74-78. Bruce Petway, Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams, Mike Tiernan
79-83. Pete Browning, Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance, Leon Day
84-89. Tony Mullane, Hilton Smith, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger

Other notable new arrivals in 1962

68. Phil Rizzuto. (n/e) Another fine 1940s shortstop. Probably the greatest defensive shortstop of his generation, but not quite enough hitting to make him a HoMer, though enough to place him ahead of Vern Stephens.
   56. Rob_Wood Posted: October 15, 2005 at 01:24 PM (#1685044)
1962 ballot:

1. Bob Feller - by far the greatest player on the ballot; 10th greatest pitcher ever (with WWII credit)
2. Jackie Robinson - a great player under unbelievable circumstances; the player I admire the most
3. Jake Beckley - long valuable career
4. Bobby Doerr - great hitting second baseman
5. George Van Haltren - 1890s star CF
6. Red Ruffing - very good pitcher with the Yanks
7. Joe Gordon - athletic second baseman; just shy of Doerr due to his bat
8. Ralph Kiner - stellar combo of homers and walks
9. Bob Johnson - steady left fielder forgotten by history
10. Tommy Bridges - great curve ball; with WWII and minor league credit
11. Willard Brown - very good negro league CFer
12. Bob Elliott - unheralded third baseman
13. Joe Medwick - great hitter with great peak
14. Eppa Rixey - steady inning-eater pitcher; with WWI credit
15. George Sisler- strange shaped career but nonetheless ballot worthy

Not voting for Wes Ferrell (not enuf career), Biz Mackey (not good enuf); Clark Griffith (barely off my ballot), and Cool Papa Bell (not good enuf hitter).
   57. Brent Posted: October 15, 2005 at 05:45 PM (#1685205)
1962 Ballot:

This year’s class is a strong one with four outstanding candidates, all of whom lost three or more seasons to the war.

1. Jackie Robinson –
I’m pleased to note that my “system” had no problem in identifying Robinson as the great player that he obviously was. Exceptional on the field, on the basepaths, and in the batter’s box, and he played his historic role with great dignity. (PHoM 1962)

2. Bob Feller –
I can see going either way on the order of this week’s top two. Over 8 seasons (1938-41, 46-47, 50-51) Feller averaged 22-11, 5.5 wins above team, 301 IP, 131 DERA+. (PHoM 1962)

3. Wes Ferrell –
Over 8 seasons (1929-36) he averaged 20-12, 4.6 wins above team, 264 IP, 127 DERA+, 104 OPS+. When you account for the hitting, that’s not far behind Newhouser. (PHoM 1944)

4. Monte Irvin –
Hit for average and power and contributed with the glove. I see him ranking somewhere between Simmons and Heilmann.

5. Clark Griffith –
Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 127 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

6. Dizzy Dean –
Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 131 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB, MVP for 1934 (placing 2nd in ’35 and ’36). Maybe some of you Jennings voters should take another look at a pitcher whose career was all peak. (PHoM 1958)

7. José de la Caridad Méndez –
Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. Hero of the dramatic first Negro League World Series in 1924. (PHoM 1938)

8. Burleigh Grimes –
Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 117 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

9. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

10. Bucky Walters –
Over 8 seasons (1936-37, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.1 wins above team, 267 IP, 120 DERA+, and 72 OPS+. (PHoM 1958)

11. Ducky Medwick –
7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. His 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. (PHoM 1958)

12. Alejandro Oms –
According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 25+ WS. And like Averill, he’s missing the first 3-5 seasons of a typical HoM career.

13. Willard Brown –
He did everything very well except for drawing walks.

14. Phil Rizzuto –
Top 5 HoM-eligible shortstops in career fielding win shares / 1000 innings (min. 10,000 innings):
(1) Marty Marion 7.32
(2) Joe Tinker 7.28
(3) Phil Rizzuto 7.14
(4) Art Fletcher 7.04
(5) Everett Scott 6.98

I usually base my war credit calculations on the seasons immediately preceding and following the player’s military service, but Scooter apparently had adjustment difficulties after the war. I think it is appropriate to note that his 1947, ’49, and ’50 seasons were more in line with his established pre-war playing ability than were his 1946 and ’48 seasons.

15. Mickey Welch –
Over 6 seasons (1884-85, 87-90) he averaged 29-15, 3.2 wins above team, 415 IP, 119 DERA+.

These guys are meritorious too:

16. Charlie Keller – see comment on Rosen below.

17. Biz Mackey – Just misses. I give a lot of weight to his reputation and defense.

18. Roger Bresnahan

19. Red Ruffing – Over 9 seasons (1928, 30, 32-33, 35-39) he averaged 17-11, zero wins above team, 248 IP, 117 DERA+, 93 OPS+.

20. Cool Papa Bell – Leadoff skills, defense, and reputation keep him close to my ballot

21. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
22. Buzz Arlett
23. Vic Willis
24. Gavy Cravath
25. Joe Gordon
26. Dobie Moore
27. George Burns
28. Leroy Matlock
29. Mel Harder
30. Ralph Kiner
31. Urban Shocker
32. Dick Redding
33. Johnny Pesky

34. Al Rosen – Keller, Kiner, and Rosen test my limits as a peak/prime voter. Here are their win shares for their top 8 seasons. (Keller’s are adjusted for war credit—I’ve assigned him 27 WS each for 1944-45, but for quality of competition I’ve also reduced his 1943 WS total by 3 and ’42 by 1.)
Keller – 33, 33, 32, 31, 27, 27, 24, 22
Kiner – 37, 35, 30, 30, 23, 23, 19, 19
Rosen – 42, 31, 29, 27, 25, 16, 15, 0

Keller’s 9th best season was credited with 11 WS for 1/3rd of a season of excellent performance. Kiner’s 9th best season received 15 WS for a full season as a slightly below average player. Neither player did much beyond that. I’ll take Keller’s superior prime over the one- or two-year peaks of Rosen and Kiner.

35. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals -

With Ellis Kinder we’re starting to see the evolution toward the modern relief ace, but we’re not quite there yet. He doesn’t make my consideration set.

Other top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey – Although his peak/prime lasted a little longer than the candidates I’ve ranked higher, it was also less distinguished. Over 10 seasons (1912, 16-17, 20-25, 28) he averaged 18-15, 0.6 wins above team, 275 IP, 112 DERA+. I’ve ranked him # 41.

George Van Haltren – He made my ballot a few times in the early 1930s, but now has dropped behind many other better qualified candidates. He’s currently ranked # 50.

George Sisler –The last half of his career was so weak that it gets very little “career” credit from me. That means I’m judging him primarily as a peak candidate, where he falls behind players like Keller, Kiner, and Rosen. He’s currently ranked # 60.
   58. Gadfly Posted: October 15, 2005 at 05:57 PM (#1685222)
1962 BALLOT (Gadfly)

1) Gavy Cravath (A+ Hall of Famer)
2) Monte Irvin A+
3) Willard Brown A+
4) Jackie Robinson A+
5) Bob Feller A+
6) Luke Easter A+
7) Dick Redding A
8) Cool Papa Bell A
9) Alejandro Oms A
10) Biz Mackey A-
11) Charley Jones B+
12) George Van Haltren B+
13) Rube Waddell B
14) Hugh Duffy B
15) Jose Mendez B-

16) Ben Taylor B-
17) Edd Roush B-
18) Charlie Keller C+
19) Joe Gordon C+
20) Red Ruffing C+
21) Clark Griffith C+
22) Tommy Leach C+
23) Roger Bresnahan C+
24) Joe Medwick C+
25) Pete Browning C+

As always, I use a Win Share system, basically trying to give equal credit for peak and career length tilted slightly to peak. I adjust upwards for catchers, pitchers after 1920, and Negro League players (who I believe are unfairly downgraded by insufficient conversion rates). I give extra credit for Minor League performance if the player was obviously of Major League caliber, excluding the first minor league season of major league caliber play.

My system ends up with a numerical grading of the player's career and assigns an A thru F Hall of Fame rating (and, to answer someone’s question from the 1961 ballot, a player grading as A+ can be an obscenely over-qualified A+. Babe Ruth qualifies as an A plus, plus about 12 more pluses).

Of the new candidates, Irvin, Robinson, and Feller are all over-qualified and easy selections. Al Rosen has the peak but was robbed of the bulk by injury; and Phil Rizzuto, even with war credit, simply grades out as one of the many C- candidates. Bus Clarkson is a very interesting player, but I did not list him at this time. Basically Clarkson hit like Joe Gordon or Bobby Grich but was not their defensive equal. On the other hand, Bus had a longer career.
   59. dan b Posted: October 17, 2005 at 12:53 AM (#1687154)
1.Feller Few better.
2.Robinson Would be #1 most years.
3.Medwick PHoM 1956. Lots of peak value, career value not shabby.
4.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
5.Irvin Could move up.
6.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
7.Kiner Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Had him too high last year.
8.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s still underrepresented.
9.Ferrell Tweaking my system to favor peak over career in evaluating pitchers moves Ferrell up.
10.Brown, Willard
11.Leach PHoM 1926.
12.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
13.Cravath Would be in my PHoM had the mle’s been available back in the early 30’s.
14.Ruffing Or should Rixey be just ahead of Ruffing?
15.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
16.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
17.Walters See Ferrell.
18.Keller 2nd look moves him close to making my ballot.
19.Poles PHoM 1929.
20.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
21.W. Cooper Of pitchers whose career began after 1910 and are now eligible for our consideration, Cooper has more WS over 10 consecutive seasons than any pitcher except Alexander, Grove and Hubbell. PHoM 1942.
22. Mays I still like him better than Vance or Faber.
23.Roush PHoM 1942.
24.Burns,GJ
25.Oms
   60. DanG Posted: October 17, 2005 at 02:29 AM (#1687468)
My #3 was elected. In 1962, Jackie and Rapid Robert render gray matter superfluous, while Irvin and Rizzuto make their bids. Campanella leads the class of 1963, with Kell adding another HOFer to the also-rans. The next year, Reese and Lemon debut.

1) Bob Feller – Not quite inner circle, among the top 60 players all-time.

2) Jackie Robinson – Uncertainty as to how much he lost to the color barrier slots him close behind Feller; certainly a top 100 player.

3) Clark Griffith (1,2,3) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

4) Monte Irvin – Occasionally, you find a real diamond among the shiny new toys. His MLEs support his reputation. Giving proper war credit makes him an easy HoMer. Given his exemplary character, it was assumed that he would be the one to break the color barrier, not Jackie (or so the story goes).

5) George Van Haltren (2,3,4) – I’ve been among his four best friends for 25 elections. He picked up support last time, but still languishes in the second tier of the backlog, where he’s been since the mid 1940’s. Now in his 54th year eligible. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

6) Eppa Rixey (4,5,6) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

7) Wes Ferrell (5,6,7) – Liking him more and more. Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

8) Red Ruffing (6,7,8) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well.

9) Tommy Leach (7,8,9) – Still approaching Lost Cause status; lost ground again last election. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10—2182 T. Speaker
11—2156 T. Leach
12—2123 W. Keeler
13—2122 J. Sheckard
14—2087 S. Magee

10) George Sisler (8,9,10) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

11) Biz Mackey (9,10,11) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz. This is around my HoM cutoff line.

12) Edd Roush (10,11,12) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, his support has doubled over the last four elections. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

13) Joe Medwick (11,12,13) – Good peak/career combo. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting.

14) Jimmy Ryan (12,13,14) – The Ryan express picked up steam, but he still has not finished higher than 40th since 1951. From zero ballots in 1957, he was named on 6 last election. To those 16 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes.

15) Cool Papa Bell (13,15,--) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Could move up.

Bresnahan and Doerr are pushed off, but they’ll be back.
   61. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2005 at 05:13 AM (#1688213)
1962 Ballot:

1. Bob Feller - Edges Jackie for the top spot on the ballot. Reminds me of Grove in so many ways.

2. Jackie Robinson – Best position player on the ballot and one of the most courageous men ever.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

4. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

6. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

7. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

8. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

9. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

10. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

11. Monte Irvin – The numbers and reputation give him a conservative placement here on my ballot. Will likely stay put or go up next year on closer inspection.

12. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

13. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

14. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

15. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.


Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but not enough to get him on the ballot yet.

George Van Haltren - Never the best in his time.

Cool Papa Bell - Knocked off by the newcomers.
   62. Andrew M Posted: October 17, 2005 at 05:14 AM (#1688215)
1962 Ballot

I thought a few things on my 61 ballot needed to be revisited, but found it wasn’t so easily done--so not many changes this week.

1. (new) Jackie Robinson. There doesn’t seem to have been anything he couldn’t do on a baseball field. Deserves credit for at least two missing years.

2. (new) Bob Feller. Not a bad career for a guy missing almost 4 years in the middle of his career. His debut at the age of 17 in the summer of 1936 (151 ERA+ in 62 innings) must have been something to see.

3. (1) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His career isn’t long, but there is an argument that he should get some credit for pitching in the PCL in 1892 and 1893. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

4. (4) Dobie Moore. At his best, I think Moore may have been as good as any position player on this ballot except maybe the guy at #1, and with a few years credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

5. (3) Eppa Rixey. Long, consistent career. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks ballot-worthy to me.

6. (5) Larry Doyle. His career OPS+ (126) is outstanding for a middle infielder. I favor him slightly over Childs because he played a little longer and over Gordon (and Doerr) because I think his peak was higher—though it’s close if you factor in some type of league discount (which, for various reasons, I don’t do much of.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems about right to me from everything I’ve read about him.

7. Monte Irvin (new). The projections we have (OPS+ over 140 in more than 9,000 ABs) would seem to put him in the top tier of eligible OFs. Best player ever whose last name begins with the letter “I”.

8. (6) Geo. Van Haltren. Figuring out where he belongs in the OF glut is difficult as there aren’t any guys with truly similar careers. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

9. (8) Joe Medwick. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is a real peak, and he has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that. Didn’t do much past the age of 30, which is why he isn’t higher. Just for fun, it would be interesting to know whether many contemporary baseball observers thought Averill or Bob Johnson were better players than Medwick.

10. (9) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher to me, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

11. (10) Edd Roush. You hear a lot of odd things about this guy, and I have a hard time getting a clear picture of Roush’s career. A good CF and among the best players in the NL for a decade. Also had a couple of MVP type seasons and was the one of the best players on a team that won a World Series. (OK, it was the 1919 Series, but still…)

12. (11) George Sisler. Back on the ballot thanks to his proximity to Medwick and Averill in various peak/career calculations. Not much after 1922, but a lot of guys on this ballot were basically finished by the age of 30.

13. (7) Rube Waddell. Downgraded for general unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

14. (12) Wes Ferrell. Great pitcher until the age of 30. Could also hit a little….

15. (13) George Burns. In a lot of ways I like him better than his contemporary Edd Roush. Roush may have better rate stats, but Burns rarely missed a game and averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Could get on base, run, field, and always showed up to play.

Next 5
16. Red Ruffing
17. Alejandro Oms
18. Joe Gordon
19. Hugh Duffy
20. Quincy Trouppe

Required disclosures:

Red Ruffing. Just off the ballot. I like Rixey more among the big innings pitchers.
Biz Mackey. I don’t see putting him ahead of Trouppe, though it’s close. He’s around #30 on my ballot.
Cool Papa Bell. A hard one. He bounces between about 10 and 25 on my ballot. Currently, I have Irvin, Oms, and Brown ahead of him among NeL OFs, but part of me thinks this must be all wrong given his legendary status.
   63. Ken Fischer Posted: October 17, 2005 at 12:01 PM (#1688461)
1962 Ballot

1-Jackie Robinson 257 WS
Sure short career…but the war years & Negro League year count for something. To me Jackie is a no-brainer for number 1 on the ballot.

2-Bob Feller 292 WS
Also hurt by the war years. But Rapid Robert is one of the best ever.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

4-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

6-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

7-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

8-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Red Ruffing 322 WS
Several 20-win seasons in the 30s is impressive.

11-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

12-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

13-Joe Medwick 312 WS
I decided there had to be room for the last NL triple crown winner in my top 15.

14-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

15-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.
   64. Al Peterson Posted: October 17, 2005 at 02:22 PM (#1688623)
1962 ballot. Late but it’s not like I’m moving the election one way or another.

1.Bob Feller (-). Even without the war credit that could be passed around he did alright for himself.

2.Jackie Robinson (-). Great player, not great enough to pass Rapid Robert this go around. Didn’t realize he played positions other than 2B so much in the major leagues.

3.Joe Medwick (1). I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

4.Clark Griffith (3). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

5.Bob Johnson (4). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

6.Dick Redding (5). Pitched in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

7.Bobby Doerr (6). Herman’s election now gives a comp in the HOM.

8.Red Ruffing (7). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey is right around here also but a little lower.

9.Jimmy Ryan (8). Quality OF for extended time period.

10. Monte Irvin (-). Excellent analysis throughout the various threads on this guy. He might deserve higher but could move up next year.

11.Pete Browning (9). Born hitter, also born with numerous other problems which drag his stock down.

12.Biz Mackey (10).
His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

13.Eppa Rixey (11). A nod to tilting my ballot toward pitchers a bit more.

14.Cool Papa Bell (12). I’m going to throw in another outfielder. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

15. Hugh Duffy (31). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. Duffy has showed up occasionally before so I’m not upset to see him mentioned again.


16-20:Chance, Roush, Dobie Moore, Mullane, Waddell
21-25:Leach, Poles, Van Haltren, Berger, F. Jones
26-30:Easter, Byrd, Childs, Bridges, Cicotte
31-35:Kiner, McGraw, Sewell, Sisler, Lundy
36-40:Trout, Willard Brown, D. Leonard, Veach, Grimes
41-45:Roy Thomas, Gordon, Ferrell, Trouppe, Ben Taylor
46-50:Willis, Elliott, Beckley, C. Mays, Hack Wilson

Top Returnees: Ferrell (#43) and Sisler (#34) both are great peak candidates. I tend to do some mixing of peak and career and they come up short. Van Haltren (#23) is around the fringes of the ballot for me. He’s on one year, off another, kinda like him being on the cusp of the HOM.

New guys: Rosen and Rizzuto aren’t looking too good by my calculations and apparently not by anyone else’s. Fine players, just not ahead of players listed.
   65. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 17, 2005 at 02:39 PM (#1688659)
I have 38 ballots tabulated. Still missing ballots from: PhillyBooster, Patrick W, Don F, Jeff M, the Commish, Devin McCullen, Michael Bass, jschmeagol, KJOK, Tiboreau, jimd, Max Parkinson, Carl G, and James Newburg.

Hopefully, they all don't roll in right before the deadline tonight. :-0
   66. OCF Posted: October 17, 2005 at 07:01 PM (#1689232)
I have 38 ballots tabulated. Still missing ballots from: ...

Even though the election is already decided, in the sense that 15 ballots cast in as extreme a fashion as possible would not change the identity of the two players elected, those remaining ballots are still important to the process. In particular, we need them to see what the overall placement is for new candidates Irvin and Rizzuto, and to see whether there has been movement one way or another in the relative standing of continuing candidates.
   67. Chris Cobb Posted: October 17, 2005 at 07:07 PM (#1689247)
I wonder if anyone has not voted because they have lost the site. When I checked the site first thing today, the URL I had been using to get to the home page took me to Jim's Lab Notes page, and it took me a while to find the HoM hidden in the "Other Blogs" menu. My first thought was that the HoM had disappeared temporarily as part of the site overhaul. Obviously that's not the case for KJOK and jimd, who have been posting in the last 12 hours, but maybe for some of the less frequent visitors? If others who came to the site today were disoriented by the changes, would it be worthwhile sending out an informational message to the yahoogroups mailing list?
   68. OCF Posted: October 17, 2005 at 07:19 PM (#1689266)
The address changed from

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hom

to

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit

I've updated my bookmark.
   69. PhillyBooster Posted: October 17, 2005 at 07:27 PM (#1689278)
Oddly, cut and paste is not working for me in this box,
which will clearly cut down the length of my comments.

1. Bob Feller (n/e) -- Obvious, even with minimal war credit.

2. Jackie Robinson (n/e) -- Obvious, even with minimal Negro League credit.

3. Eppa Rixey (1) -- Lots and lots of above average innings.

4. Jake Beckley (2) -- the Eppa Rixey of hitters.

5. Gavvy Cravath (3) -- Trying to get up and back to the majors could
be consider a "war" of sorts. Full war credit for at least 5 years of PCL
and AA play makes this an easy choice.

6. Jose Mendez (4) -- Imagine that MLB was a 4-team league. How would Mendez's
numbers stack up against comparable HoMers?

7. Mickey Welch (5) -- Closely comparable to HoMer Keefe. His numbers are
what they are. Attempts to minimize them are merely rationalizations.

8. Dolf Luque (6) -- Photoshop his skin a few shades darker, and make him a
rookie is 1947 and he's the Jackie Robinson of pitchers, with a comparable or
better post-integration career. Recognizing shades of gray puts Luque high.

9. Roger Bresnahan (7) -- A highly leveraged Joe Torre.

10. Biz Mackey (8) -- Almost Bresnahanian is his exploits.

11. Cupid Childs (9) -- More love for the 1890s.

12. Clark Griffith (10) -- Always a bridesmaid is good enough to be a bride.

13. Hugh Duffy (11) -- You can't tell me the 40th best guy in 1940 is better than
the 20th best guy 50 years earlier.

14. Dick Redding (12) -- Yet another 2nd best who is better than all the third bests.

15. George van Haltren (14) -- Again, because none of the newfangled guys are better.

16. Oms (15) dropps off from last week.
   70. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 17, 2005 at 08:00 PM (#1689335)
If others who came to the site today were disoriented by the changes, would it be worthwhile sending out an informational message to the yahoogroups mailing list?

I'll see what I can do, Chris.
   71. Tiboreau Posted: October 17, 2005 at 08:10 PM (#1689357)
1. 2b Jackie Robinson (nc)—5th best second baseman in baseball history after considering play before breaking color barrier.
2. sp Bob Feller (nc)—Just a smidge below Jackie, IMO; really, it’s a toss-up between the two.
3. lf Monte Irvin (nc)—Closer to the borderline candidates below him than the no-brainers above, but still solid HoM candidate.
4. sp Wes Ferrell (1, 2, 3)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter.
5. cf Hugh Duffy (3, 5, 6)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either. PHoM 1960
6. lf Joe Medwick (4, 6, 7)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as among the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
7. sp Clark Griffith (2, 3, 4)—A good balance between peak and career: his peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former.
8. ss Dobie Moore (6, 8, 9)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
9. cf Alejandro Oms (9, 11, 12)—The poor man’s Paul Waner. Only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a real good peak IMO as well as a real good career (340 WS).
10. sp Bucky Walters (8, 10, 11)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
11. rf Willard Brown (ob)—Similar value to Alejandro Oms. His peak is slightly better (3 30+ WS seasons to 1) and he missed two years due to WWII, but Oms had a better, more consistent prime and receives some credit for early play.
12. 2b Cupid Childs (10, 12, 13)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
13. sp Jose Mendez (11, 13, 14)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
14. cf Edd Roush (12, 14, 15)— Nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
15. 2b Joe Gordon (14, ob)—It seems that 2b is to the infield glut what cf has been to the outfield glut. By my count there are 7 serious 2b candidates, including 1 1890s candidate (Childs\Duffy) and 2 Negro Leaguers (Monroe & Scales\Bell & Poles). Both Gordon & Doerr’s candidacy is similar to Averill & Sisler’s: strong, but not great, peak with medium career value.

Required Disclosures:

16. 1b George Sisler (ob)—Have been underrating him due to the shortened war seasons during his peak and the greater importance of fielding at his position during the era. Could go higher.
21. sp Eppa Rixey (15, ob)—Nearly 4500 IP with a 115 ERA+, the best of the long career, low peak pitchers eligible. His peak is just not enough to make my ballot, though.
23. c Biz Mackey (ob)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang.
24. cf Cool Papa Bell (ob)—An interesting case. While James Riley’s expert pole places Bell among the 1st team Negro League All-Stars, Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections place him squarely among the long career, decent peak candidates, below even the infamous Jake Beckley. Like Willie Wells, I think his peak is doubly understated, and have placed Cool Papa about where I see his MLB comparable, Max Carey.
26. sp Red Ruffing (ob)—Like Rixey, Ruffing had a long and valuable career but not enough of a peak to make my ballot. Questions regarding the support he received playing for the Yankees and the dichotomy between his Boston and New York careers also cloud the issue.
   72. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 17, 2005 at 08:21 PM (#1689371)
Alright, this ballot will be brief as I dont' have a lot of time on my hands.

1962 ballot

1. Jackie Robinson - A monster peak and with WWII and NeL credit he may challenge Lajoie as for the 4th best 2Bman ever.

2. Bob Feller - I would rather give him war credit during his peakand take it away at the end of his career than the other way around. Easy #2.

3. Wes Ferrell - High peak pitcher whose bat earns him this lofty place

4. Cupid Childs - Best 2Bman of the 19th century in my view

5. Monte Irvin - The MLE's give him Medwick's three year peak with more career

6. Joe Medwick - I believe that WS has go thim right, a great peak and some decent career numbers as well.

7. Hugh Duffy - Best of the 1890's CF trio basedon his superior peak.

8. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the Dead Ball era.

9. Charlie Keller - He has the best peak of anyone on the board outside of the top 2.

10. Bucky Walters - Ferrell without the bat

11. Dobie Moore - The black Jennings, I dont' think his peak was as high, however.

12. Ralph Kiner - A great power hitter for seven years

13. Clark Griffith - Sparkling 3.99 DERA, underrated

14. Quincy Trouppe - He seems to have been Bresnahan in career shape with more time spent at C and less in CF.

15. Joe Gordon - Great prime, slightly edges Browning, Rixey, and Doerr.

Newbies - Rizzuto is at #37 with Sewell, Lundy, et al. Rosen is currently at #25, if he had posted a few more yeasr liek hsi best he woudl be top 10 easily.

Required disclosures - GVH and Sisler are right outside my top 15, they will probably get back on my ballot at some point and I am not against their election per se. Bell and Mackey are #'s 32 and 27 right now, they are good but I am not too impressed. Ruffing is #36, I dont' see his career as being as god as Rixey's.
   73. TomH Posted: October 17, 2005 at 08:24 PM (#1689377)
well, if some voters DID lose the bookmark, at least it will have happened in a year without a nail-biter election :)
   74. sunnyday2 Posted: October 17, 2005 at 08:36 PM (#1689390)
There's not a Campy thread yet, is there? Would love to see his NeL record! Need to decide if he is as good as Dobie Moore! Is it 1) Campy, 2) Dobie or the other way around?
   75. jimd Posted: October 17, 2005 at 08:43 PM (#1689400)
Ballot for 1962

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next month.

1) B. FELLER -- !

2) J. ROBINSON -- ! Both had great peaks; Feller has more career.

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

4) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

6) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

7) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

8) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

9) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

10) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

11) M. IRVIN -- Early opinion: he may belong.

12) J. TINKER -- Long career playing great defense; integral part of a great team.

13) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

14) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus keeps him on ballot.

15) J. MEDWICK -- Just hanging on.

Just missing the cut are:
16-18) Cool Papa Bell, Rabbit Maranville, Hugh Duffy,
19-22) Tommy Leach, Dick Redding, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan,
23-26) Dick Lundy, Eppa Rixey, Ray Schalk, Bobby Doerr,
27-30) Joe Gordon, Ned Williamson, Herman Long, Wally Schang,
31-34) Rube Waddell, Phil Rizzuto, Jim McCormick, Edd Roush,
35-38) Roger Bresnahan, Vern Stephens, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
   76. Daryn Posted: October 17, 2005 at 08:57 PM (#1689420)
Marc,

There is a Campy thread. It has some good info on his NeL years and suggests, to me, that he earned another 100 WS there at least.
   77. Jeff M Posted: October 17, 2005 at 09:41 PM (#1689477)
1962 Ballot

1. Feller, Bob – Didn’t add any war credit. Didn’t need to. Easy #1 for me.

2. Robinson, Jackie – No credit for anything before 1945. No war discount. Would probably be about mid-ballot without the 1945-1946 MLEs. On the other hand, one could reasonably boost his 1947-1948 numbers to account for the ordeal. In any event, we all know he belongs in the HoM one way or another.

3. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

4. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

5. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

6. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

7. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

8. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

9. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

10. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, because he would be a shoo-in. But, he was a peak performer anyway, and could swing the bat.

11. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

12. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

13. Clarkson, Bus – I give up. I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

14. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

15. Gordon, Joe – I think he’s quite a bit ahead of Doerr, at least in terms of where he is on the ballot. Most of the gap is probably meaningless on an actual baseball diamond.

Required Disclosure(s):

Ruffing, Red – Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a small boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Rixey, Eppa – No question in my mind he is better than Ruffing. However, he never really had flashes of brilliance, and for me that is a pre-requisite to the HoM.

Griffith, Clark – Was on my ballot last year, but the newcomers pushed him off. Prefer him strongly to Rixey, and vociferously to Ruffing.

Van Haltren, George – This guy is the Energizer bunny. I wish I knew why. He’s #31 in my system.

Bell, Cool Papa – Legend overstates his case. Somebody turn out the lights and put his candidacy to bed. This is a guy with only six top 5 votes.
   78. KJOK Posted: October 17, 2005 at 09:55 PM (#1689493)
Trying to put the finishing touches on my totally rewokrked ballot in between a busy workday, so my ballot MAY be a little late...
   79. Max Parkinson Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1689508)
I didn’t have Averill on my ballot, and the two newbies drop everyone else by 2. Trouppe leapfrogs Grimes, and probably more in the next couple of years…

1962 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are obvious)

1. Bob Feller

I don’t give war credit – this is where he gets on his own.

2. Jackie Robinson

3. Dick Redding

One of the 5 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Waddell and Griffith have fallen off my ballot, but plaques are forever…), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

4. Red Ruffing

Good to great for a long enough time with the Yankees to overcome how awful he was with Boston.

5. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty. Welcome aboard, Pete.

6. Wes Ferrell

The peak/prime voter in me. I don’t hold his (unsuccessful) comeback attempts against him at all.

7. George Sisler

I’ve moved him up recently.

8. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly outstanding peak, and as I keep reading, he may jump to the Ferrell level. He’ll be PHoM before long.

9. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up to be the best available LF. Fairly large jump for me.

10. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

11. Hugh Duffy
12. Bill Monroe
13. Edd Roush
14. George Burns

I have lessened my 1910-mid 20s AL-NL penalty. Roush and Burns are helped.

15. Quincy Trouppe

He (along with Irvin) could rise as I fully evaluate their NeL achievements.

Previous Top 10s:

Rixey is 17 (on my ballot last year), Mackey is 22 and Medwick is 28 (although I’ve voted for him before).
   80. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:13 PM (#1689524)
In all honesty, if this were a contested election, I might not have voted because I’ve had to work SO much this past week that I had virtually no time for the HoM. But since I know I won’t affect the outcome, I don’t see the harm (plus, Leach and Monroe have enough problems already without a sudden plunge in the totals). Feller and Robinson make my PHoM.

1. Bob Feller (new) What would he have been without WWII is just one of the great unanswerable questions. But no matter how you come down, he’s clearly a HoM-level pitcher in any case.

2. Jackie Robinson (new) If you gave him WWII credit, he’d probably be ahead of Feller. But since he wasn’t playing professionally before the war, I really can’t do that. Still a great player in any case, and I’d argue one of the most important men in American history in the 20th century.

3. Tommy Leach (1) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. The 1900s aren't any better represented than any other era, and worse than some. Made my PHoM in 1940.

4. Bill Monroe (2) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Wes Ferrell (3) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above. Made my PHoM in 1958.

6. Quincy Trouppe (4) His numbers are comparable to all the other catcher candidates, without the 4 or 5 year period we don't have numbers for. I know the Mexican translations aren't as certain as some of the others, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. Made my PHoM in 1961.

7. Willard Brown (5) On the one hand, I’m not really sure he belongs. On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the other OF on the ballot. Chris's analysis showed him with the best career numbers of the OF candidates he looked at, and the peak numbers may have been deflated by the missing war years.

8. Monte Irvin (new) A very shaky placement, but his MLEs are extremely good. Could move up, down, left, right….

(7A. Earl Averill, 7B Bill Terry)

9. Dick Redding (7) At this stage of the Negro League pitcher analysis, nobody from the crowd has moved ahead of Cannonball Dick to me. Slips just a bit because I don't know that we really need another Negro League pitcher. I don't have a quota, but looking at the number already in gives me pause.

10. Joe Sewell (8) While I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). They're not that far apart to me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

11. Cupid Childs (9) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Every time I compare him to Doerr and Gordon, though, the less sure I feel about having him ahead. Made my PHoM in 1932.

12. Bobby Doerr (10) He's clearly behind Herman on career and peak, and wasn't clearly the best of his era as Childs was. I almost moved him ahead of Childs, but looking at the year-by-year OPS+ held me back.

13. Dobie Moore (11) For a long time I've had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore?

14. George Van Haltren (12) Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy.
(14A Max Carey)

15. Bob Elliott (13) For everyone who said Hack fans should be supporting him, I agree. OTOH, his usage is comparable to Leach's, but I think his defensive value is demonstrably lower, and he played through the war. I was sure Hack was HoM-worthy, I'm not sure yet about Elliott.

16. Red Ruffing (14) I think I was overrating him some - he's hard to distinguish from Rixey, and he does seem to have gotten a lot of help from being a Yankee (although his best years in comparison to the team were in the team's best years, 37-39).
17. Joe Medwick (15) With his peak, he's probably just ahead, of Bob Johnson.
18. Bob Johnson (16) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.
19. Alejandro Oms (17) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
20. Eppa Rixey (18) I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era, but his numbers are impressive. Doesn't do great in my pitcher ranking system, but I'm not sure why.
21. Gavvy Cravath (19) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
22. Biz Mackey (20) I am comfortable that he's ahead of Bresnahan, Schang and Lombardi, but those numbers still aren't that striking, and they don't seem to match up to Trouppe's. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
23. Cool Papa Bell (21) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
24. Ralph Kiner (22) Can't see him as that much better than Keller, had a short career and not a truly outstanding peak. Needs more analysis, but I'm not too crazy about him yet.
25. Ben Taylor (23) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now, and I'd been overlooking the pitching. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
26. Jake Beckley. (24) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
27. Jose Mendez (25) Great peak, but I still think Redding's distinctly better.
(27A Sam Thompson, 27B Rube Foster)
28. Joe Gordon (26) Not that far from Doerr, should probably be a little higher.
29. Vern Stephens (27) Could be higher.
30. Bucky Walters (28) Could move up some more, but it's hard to seperate him from Dean.
31. Jimmy Ryan (29)
(31A Hughie Jennings)
32. George Sisler (30) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff
33. Rube Waddell
34. Dick Lundy
35. Clark Griffith (33) Simply not enough better than his non-HoM contemporaries for me.
36. Charley Jones
37. Edd Roush
38. Charlie Keller
39. Ernie Lombardi
40. Burleigh Grimes

Phil Rizzuto I simply didn’t get around to. He would probably be in my top 30, and has a slim chance to make my ballot, but I didn’t have time to give him enough consideration for a fair judgement.
   81. OCF Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:18 PM (#1689527)
We're up to 74 candidates getting votes. Two more to tie the record.

One note on the way consensus scores work: there's very little difference in practice between being the only person to vote for a particular candidate, and voing for someone who's 40th or 50th on the list. jimd has several people for whom he's the only supporter (yes, that's F. Jones on his ballot, not C. Jones), but he also votes for a good number of the top 10. His consensus score is likely to be within 1 point of the average over all voters.
   82. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:31 PM (#1689540)
1. Bob Feller SP (n/e) - Without a shred of war credit my latest system sees him between Mathewson and Nichols in the pecking order (which is ahead of everyone else, except for Johnson, Young, Alexander and Grove).

2. Jackie Robinson 2B (n/e) - Peak voters should love him anyway, and with pre-1947 credit, I don't see how you can't rank him #2, even if you are a career voter.

3. Red Ruffing SP (3) - Not much of a peak, but with war credit he is 3rd among pitchers we've seen in translated IP, meaning he pitched forever. With war credit I have him as one of just 5 pitchers we've seen with 300 translated wins (he hit 300 exactly with my war credit).

4. Eppa Rixey SP (1) - Like Ruffing, a Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Niekro HoMer. Very similar Ruffing. Low peak for pitchers on this list, but so much career value.

5. Jake Beckley 1B (2) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

6. Gavy Cravath RF (4) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

7. Luke Easter 1B (5) - This is a conservative ranking (for me anyway, some see it as very liberal I'm sure). There's a case that could be made that if I'm going to rank him at all he should either be #3 or off the ballot. But I think this is fair as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.

8. Ralph Kiner LF (6) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but hit peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.

9. Charley Jones LF (7) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL.

10. Wes Ferrell SP (20) - Best peak of any pitcher on the ballot (save Feller, but not by much) and fantastic hitter for a pitcher. Flies up the chart as I re-evaluated pitchers this week.

11. Phil Rizzuto SS (n/e) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP.

12. Clark Griffith SP (8) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity or Three-Finger Brown from Griffith?

13. Joe Medwick LF (9) - Looking at Kiner made me realize I had Medwick too low.

14. George Van Haltren CF (10) - He could rank anywhere from 3 to 25, very tough to evaluate.

15. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (11) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

Honoarable mention:

16. Vern Stephens SS (12) - I love shortstop that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Clearly better than Doerr IMO.
17. Bill Monroe 2B (13) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
18. Ernie Lombardi C (14) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
19. Biz Mackey C (15) - After further review he appears to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.
20. Cool Papa Bell CF (16) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?
21. Jimmy Ryan OF (33) - Getting bumped again - could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
22. Joe Gordon 2B (17) - Clearly above the rest of the 2B pack.
23. Bobby Doerr SS (18) - Too close to call w/Gordon right now.
24. Wally Schang C (19) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.
25. George Sisler 1B (23) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
26. Dutch Leonard SP (--) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set.
27. Dizzy Trout SP (42) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Moves up more with my pitcher re-evaluation.
28. Tommy Bridges SP (--) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. He'd slipped off my radar too.
29. Bucky Walters SP (22) - I was underrating him. I took a look at his <a hre="http://runsupportindex.blogspot.com/2004/06/bucky-walters.html">RSI page</a>, he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a very close call. I'm leaving Ferrell ahead for now because two of Walters' big years were during the war, but these two are extremely close.
30. Quincy Trouppe C (24) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
31. Bob Elliott 3B (25) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).
32. Urban Shocker SP (--) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
33. Burleigh Grimes SP (26) - Had dropped him out of consideration wrongly. Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.
34. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (27) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
35. Bob Johnson LF (28) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.
36. Dom DiMaggio CF (29) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
37. Joe Sewell SS (30) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Good, but not great, peak isn't enough to overcome his short career.
38. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (31) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
39. Willard Brown RF (32) - Tough to peg after considering his incredibly low walk rates.
40. Ed Williamson 3B (34) - Still on the board after 60+ years.
41. Dick Redding SP (35) - Can't see him as better than Grimes, but he's back on the board.
42. Rube Waddell SP (36) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.
43. Mike Griffin CF (37) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
44. Hugh Duffy OF (38) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan.
45. Edd Roush CF (39) - Weak league hurts him.
46. Ben Taylor 1B (40) - Not that far off Beckley, shows how tight the ballot is.
47. Dobie Moore SS (41) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit.
48.
49. Mel Harder SP (43) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
50. Vic Willis SP (44) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.
51. Bobo Newsom SP (--) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
52. Dick Lundy SS (45) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
53. Alejandro Oms OF (46) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
54. George Scales SS (47) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?
55. Charlie Keller LF (48) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long.
56. Pete Browning CF (49) - He's on the board again, but I cannot see ranking him over Keller. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation.
57. Cupid Childs 2B (50) - Good hitter, but 2B was a hitter's position in his time.
58. Larry Doyle 2B (51) - Ditto
59. John McGraw 3B (52) - More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
60. Tommy Henrich RF (53) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good comp.
   83. OCF Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:38 PM (#1689548)
Joe - does Monte Irvin crack your top 60? If not, where would you put him?
   84. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1689563)
Boy, it's hard to find this place now. There have been discussions in the past about limiting membership. This might just do the trick! ;-)

Ballot coming pretty soon, if live preview ever loads it ...
   85. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:49 PM (#1689567)
I believe Scooter’s call of Maris’s 61st was “Holy cow! He did it!” (If it wasn’t, it should have been.) Speaking of Maris, Commissioner Frick thinks there should be a distinctive mark attached to his record. I agree. How about a green die with the 5-spot side showing? :-)

1962 ballot:

1. Jackie Robinson: Best player on the ballot. ROY ’47, MVP ’49, 6 all-star teams, 6 pennants, etc… see Kelly’s #23. plus Batted cleanup some years on teams that included Snider, Hodges, Campanella. Mr. Rickey made the right choice. It’s frightening to think of the consequences if he’d chosen less wisely and that person, whether for reasons of character, temperament or talent, had failed.

2. Bob Feller: Best pitcher on the ballot, with or without war credit.

3. Red Ruffing: He was actually leading last year until the last few ballots. Looks like he might have a chance one of these years. Hope he doesn’t burn out or fade away, my my hey hey. (PHOM 1956)

4. Cool Papa Bell: "Appropriately venerated by history." :-) (PHOM 1957)

5. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

7. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (PHOM 1958)

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

9. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

10. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher.

11. Bobby Doerr: Like Sewell, 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4.

12. Monte Irvin: My first impression is to like him a bit better than Medwick and the gang, so I’ll put him here. He could move up or down, probably up.

13. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, career edge over Ferrell, pretty good hitter.


14. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood.

15. Clark Griffith: Moved back on the ballot a few years ago when the crowd thinned, and lingers on. PHOM 1945.



Leaving these in place, they’ll likely be back at some time:

16. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. PHOM 1929.

17. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson).

18. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, and I don't see what Ferrell's got (except for a bat) that he doesn't. Goofy's ahead on black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for better teams. I think he had something to do with them being good.

19. Wes Ferrell: Right behind Gomez.

20. Bob Johnson

Required comments:
Wes Ferrell: See above, he’s 19th.
George Van Haltren: Wasn’t that crazy about him back in the ‘20s and the field’s much deeper now.

New people:
Rizzuto: I thought I’d be more impressed, but I’m not. Kind of looks like Joe Tinker, but Tinker’s got more speed and pop.
Rosen: Good short peak and rate stats, but really just a 7-year career.


PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940).
   86. Patrick W Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:54 PM (#1689577)
Things are busy in the non-baseball life, and the Cards in the playoffs (for one more night at least) doesn’t help my HOM time either. Easy election comes at the right time for me. Apologies for the lack of returning-player consideration and the repeating commentary.

1. Bob Feller (n/a), Clev. (A) SP (’36-’56) (1962) – I have Feller receiving a 34.0% Bonus for War Credit, which puts Feller at a translated 379-196 record.
2. Jackie Robinson (n/a), Bkn. (N), 2B / 3B (’47-’56) (1962) – I have Feller with more war credit than Robinson has banned credit, and Bob has more on the major league resume as well. Not gonna sweat the order too hard.
3. Red Ruffing (1), N.Y. (A) SP (’25-’47) (1955) – Looks as good as Ted Lyons did.
4. Bobby Doerr (2), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) (1960) – Reaches Boudreau’s career value but takes about 1700 more AB’s (War Adj. Up) to do so. Boudreau’s peak is once again the difference.
5. Bucky Walters (3), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – Dropping Leonard for poor hitting means I have to raise Bucky. So the consensus score is screwed either way.
6. Alejandro Oms (4), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) – I’m worried about the slippery slope here of voting for a non-US based career, but he apparently had great value and did play in the NeL.
7. Willard Brown (5), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) – Very closely ranked to Oms, but Alex gets a bigger boost from peak.
8. Monte Irvin (n/a), N.Y. (N), 1B (‘40-‘56) – I haven’t had time to go through the Irvin thread, so this placement is based on an assumed value through his twenties.
9. Dutch Leonard (6), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – 4 great years before the war, 2 great years after the war, fairly average in between. Dizzy Trout with 500 more IP.
10. Biz Mackey (7), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – He’ll make it in on my ballot someday.
11. Dizzy Trout (8), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) – Trout is causing me to wonder how much credit I should award to PRAA as opposed to PRAR. Looking at translated careers with a 50/50 split, Trout’s pitching value equals that of Ruffing with over 1500+ fewer IP. My peak factor helps Trout out even more. Is a 50/50 split for RAR/RAA fair or is it too much? Maybe Ruffing is elected before this issue is resolved.
12. Joe Gordon (9), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) – I have Sewell being slightly better than Gordon with the glove, and Gordon with every other advantage between the two. It’s a slight advantage in most cases, and it’s not enough to rank Gordon any higher on the ballot than here.
13. Bobo Newsom (10), Wash. – Detr. – St.L (A) SP (’34-’47) – I’m actually kinda glad he made the ballot, because it was quite an ordeal to combine his stats during the 8 years he was traded; all that work didn’t go for naught. Like Leonard, his peak was before the war and he had a reprieve in ’46-’47, but he couldn’t capitalize on the lesser competition in ’42,’43,’45. Looking good for the P-Hall, he’ll never make it in the real thing because we won’t be able to decide on a cap.
14. Phil Rizzuto(n/a), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) – At first look, better than Sewell, worse than Gordon.
15. Joe Sewell (11), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – The great defense of Sewell trumps the modest offense advantage of Hack.

Wes Ferrell – He’s under consideration.
Eppa Rixey – Doesn’t appear to be a whole lot different than a dozen other pitchers who have been summarily reject by the voters (Harder, Passeau, Shocker, Warneke, Grimes, …).
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Joe Medwick – Drops out this year.
Cool Papa Bell – Could be on the ballot, but isn’t.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   87. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 17, 2005 at 10:56 PM (#1689578)
Joe - does Monte Irvin crack your top 60? If not, where would you put him?

He must have totally forgot about him. I AIMed him; hopefully, he responds in time.
   88. OCF Posted: October 17, 2005 at 11:52 PM (#1689630)
Of course, Joe's got a perfectly good ballot for us to count. I wouldn't have said anything if he hadn't gone all the way down to #60 (with a blank #48, by the way).

My own placement of Irvin at #16 will attract my scrutiny between now and the next ballot.
   89. KJOK Posted: October 17, 2005 at 11:59 PM (#1689634)
REVISION OF METHOD – Now weighing performance vs. peers in 30 year window even heavier, and now also considering Player Overall Wins score.

Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. BOB FELLER, P. 32 POW, 106 WARP1, 279 RSAA, 224 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 122 ERA+ in 3,828 innings. Does great in all measurement categories.

2. JACKIE ROBINSON, 2B. 34 POW, 88 WARP1, 323 RCAP & .660 OWP in 5,802 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. At least in the top 10 of 2B all-time.

3. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Best first baseman from 1880 – 1920.

4. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

5. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

6. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Beckley as best post-1880 1st baseman due to playing time.

7. RED RUFFING, P. 31 POW, 113 WARP1, 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Batting prowess puts him ahead of the pitching glut.

8. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 28 POW, 83 WARP1, 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s.

9. EPPA RIXEY, P. 24 POW, 99 WARP1, 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

10. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

11. MONTE IRVIN, LF/SS. Estimated 151 OPS+ over 8,278 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Gary Sheffield may be the best overall comp.

12. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period. Not as much ahead of Dave Bancroft as I originally thought.

13. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

14. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

15. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

BUS CLARKSON, SS. Estimated 120 OPS+ over 8,533 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Vern Stephens.

Returning players not on ballot posted later....
   90. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 18, 2005 at 12:07 AM (#1689643)
Slot Irvin at #3 on my ballot. He wasn't at the top of the page before, so I assumed he was not eligible until 1963.

If this impacts anyone else we can adjust their ballot also. I didn't have time to read through the thread this week, or I would have noticed him. Sorry!
   91. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 18, 2005 at 12:10 AM (#1689646)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   92. OCF Posted: October 18, 2005 at 12:12 AM (#1689649)
Everyone else down one, and Leach off your ballot (from #15 to #16), right?

That's 49 voters: everyone who voted last year except Mike Webber, plus Kelly in SD.
   93. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 18, 2005 at 12:35 AM (#1689690)
Everyone else down one, and Leach off your ballot (from #15 to #16), right?

Right.
   94. KJOK Posted: October 18, 2005 at 05:29 AM (#1690397)
Finishing my ballot, just to make it official:

RETURNEES:

WES FARRELL, P. 31 POW, 88 WARP1, 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls a little short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

BOBBY DOERR, 2B. 40 POW, 107 WARP1, 234 RCAP & .539 OWP in 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Falls just behind Childs.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that. Not sure he was really better than teammate Dolph Luque, so he falls short on the ballot.

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