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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, November 07, 2005

1964 Ballot

Newbies: Pee Wee Reese, Bob Lemon, Virgil Trucks, and Sal Maglie.

Returnees: Wes Ferrell, Red Ruffing, Joe Medwick, Eppa Rixey, Biz Mackey, Clark Griffith, George Van Haltren, and Cool Papa Bell.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:46 PM | 125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. ronw Posted: November 14, 2005 at 06:20 PM (#1731106)
As someone who had Robinson #1, I can say that despite what my comment may have read, I did not take any intangibles into account when rating Jackie. I did give some Negro League XC. To me, Robinson's actual numbers were historic enough to justify a high ballot placement.

I also didn't dock Jackson or Beckwith or Cicotte, and I won't be docking Richie Allen.

Likewise, Murphy won't be docked for listing Mike Webber among the nonvoters even though Mike voted, because of Murphy's intestinal fortitude in the face of upswelling adversity.
   102. Michael Bass Posted: November 14, 2005 at 06:53 PM (#1731187)
Gah, still getting hammered, so another short ballot. Sorry about this. More detailed than last week's at least.

1. Ferrell
2. Moore
3. Bob Lemon - In the end, I could have placed him anywhere between 1 and 4. I kind of split the difference. Very confusing to sort out the top 4 on my ballot right now.
4. Mendez
5. Reece - Not on the level of the top 4 due to peak, but enough peak and prime to be clearly separated from the next tier.
6. Doerr
7. Ruffing
8. Walters
9. Dean
10. Sewell
11. Griffith
12. Williard Brown
13. Gordon
14. Trouppe
15. Bob Johnson

16-20: Redding, Sisler, Browning, Mackey, Trout

Top 10 not on my ballot:

Medwick - #21, sub-Sisler, IMO, not enough peak or prime years to be higher, but not a bad choice overall.

Rixey/Beckley - No peak, not in top 50.

Mackey - #19 see above. Very nice prime between his first half bat and his amazing glove, but not quite high enough peak or long enough career to make the ballot. Still, I'll get him into my top 15 someday.

Van Haltren - #48, I don't think he was a special player, not notably separated from Ryan and Duffy, though the best of that particular lot. I can't see the in/out line being between those 3, so either all in or all out, and I have them all out. Still, I see the opposing view.

Bell - #51. No peak, probably a little more prime than Beckley or Rixey, but still, is cruising on name value, IMO.

Sisler: #17, see Medwick.
   103. DavidFoss Posted: November 14, 2005 at 07:05 PM (#1731209)
Likewise, Murphy won't be docked for listing Mike Webber among the nonvoters even though Mike voted, because of Murphy's intestinal fortitude in the face of upswelling adversity.

Oh my! :-)
   104. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: November 14, 2005 at 08:05 PM (#1731343)
When we wrote that into the Constitution, the intent was entirely focused on not 'discrediting' players who were thought to be headcases, bad apples, jerks, whatever, unless it directly impacted their teams negatively. We didn't put that in there as an out for allowing someone to be moved up.

Okay, but whatever the intent, if you write this (emphasis added, I hope):

A player’s “personality” is to be considered only to the extent that it affected the outcomes of the player’s games (e.g., via his positive or negative effect on his teammates)

it can certainly be interpreted as allowing for positive credit, not an “out” at all. One of those unintended consequences we hear so much about.

Would Robinson have failed otherwise? Highly unlikely, impossible to say, but karl (#86) has an excellent point.
Did Reese make Robinson great or better? Obviously not.
Did the open support of a white southern man make it easier for Robinson to gain acceptance and to be as great as he was? I say yes.
Did this help the Dodgers win games? I say yes again.
Can I quantify this? No. I haven’t calculated Personality Shares or CARP (Character Above Replacement Player). ;-)
[Well, during Reese’s 13 years as a full-time player, the Dodgers outperformed their Pythag 11 times and were only –1 the other 2 years. The ’47 team was +7, but how much of that was Pee Wee and Jackie, or Cookie, Ralphie, Hughie, or even Dixie?]

I’m not sure how easy it would be to assess negative impact, either, except in the most obvious cases.

All that said, I don’t have my heels dug in on this and if the Power That Be insists, I will amend my ballot, though I’d prefer to leave it as is.

Oh, and

Maybe each of us should abstain from voting for players who played for our favorite teams.

Giants fan. Nuf ced.
   105. Tiboreau Posted: November 14, 2005 at 08:57 PM (#1731476)
1. ss Pee Wee Reese (nc)—Was never great, but was real good for a long time. Best career value of his type at a tough position.
2. sp Wes Ferrell (3, 4, 1)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter.
3. sp Bob Lemon (nc)—Like Ferrell, is underrated by ERA+ due to his ability to hit. Better career value than Wes after WWII credit, while Ferrell has the better peak years. It could really go either way between the two, IMO.
4. cf Hugh Duffy (4, 5, 3)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
5. lf Joe Medwick (5, 6, 4)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as among the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
6. ss Dobie Moore (6, 8, 6)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
7. sp Clark Griffith (7, 7, 2)—A good balance between peak and career: his peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former.
8. 2b Cupid Childs (8, 12, 10)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
9. cf Alejandro Oms (9, 9, 9)—The poor man’s Paul Waner. Only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a real good peak IMO as well as a real good career (340 WS).
10. sp Bucky Walters (10, 10, 8)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
11. rf Willard Brown (11, 11, ob)—Similar value to Alejandro Oms. His peak is slightly better (3 30+ WS seasons to 1) and he missed two years due to WWII, but Oms had a better, more consistent prime and receives some credit for early play.
12. 2b Joe Gordon (12, 15, 14)—It seems that 2b is to the infield glut what cf has been to the outfield glut. By my count there are 7 serious 2b candidates, including 1 1890s candidate (Childs\Duffy) and 2 Negro Leaguers (Monroe & Scales\Bell & Poles). Both Gordon & Doerr’s candidacy is similar to Averill & Sisler’s: strong, but not great, peak with medium career value.
13. sp Jose Mendez (13, 13, 11)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
14. cf Edd Roush (14, 14, 12)— Nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
15. 1b George Sisler (15, ob)—Have been underrating him due to the shortened war seasons during his peak and the greater importance of fielding at his position during the era.

Required Disclosures:
20. sp Eppa Rixey (ob, ob, 15)—Nearly 4500 IP with a 115 ERA+, the best of the long career, low peak pitchers eligible.
21. c Biz Mackey (ob)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang.
22. cf Cool Papa Bell (ob)—An interesting case. While James Riley’s expert pole places Bell among the 1st team Negro League All-Stars, Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections place him squarely among the long career, decent peak candidates, below even the infamous Jake Beckley. Like Willie Wells, I think his peak is doubly understated, and have placed Cool Papa about where I see his MLB comparable, Max Carey.
26. sp Red Ruffing (ob)—Like Rixey, Ruffing had a long and valuable career but not enough of a peak to make my ballot. Questions regarding the support he received playing for the Yankees and the dichotomy between his Boston and New York careers also cloud the issue.
37. cf George Van Haltren (ob)—Great career value, but neither his peak nor his prime measure up to what I think of as worthy of the Hall of Merit.
   106. OCF Posted: November 14, 2005 at 09:33 PM (#1731551)
Maybe each of us should abstain from voting for players who played for our favorite teams.

We can't do that. Basically, we've sworn ourselves to fairness. I can't duck when Lou Brock becomes eligible - I must evaluate him fairly and place him where the evidence leads me. And karlmagnus must similarly place Jim Rice where the evidence leads him, and so on, for everyone.
   107. Max Parkinson Posted: November 14, 2005 at 11:06 PM (#1731750)
1964 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Lemon and Mendez, bringing up the pitcher gap between the halls to 6.)

1. Dick Redding

One of the 6 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Waddell and Griffith have fallen off my ballot, but plaques are forever…), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

2. Red Ruffing

Good to great for a long enough time with the Yankees to overcome how awful he was with Boston.

3. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

4. Bob Lemon
5. Wes Ferrell

The peak/prime voter in me. I think that I have good hitting pitchers higher than most of the electorate…

6. George Sisler

I’ve moved him up recently.

7. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly outstanding peak, and as I keep reading, he may jump to the Ferrell level. Congrats, Jose on your induction.

8. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up to be the best available LF. Fairly large jump for me.

9. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

10. Bucky Walters

Another pitcher who could hit.

11. Bill Monroe
12. George Burns

I have lessened my 1910-mid 20s AL-NL penalty. Burns is helped.

13. Bobby Veach

The 3rd best outfielder in a league that employed Cobb and Speaker.

14. Quincy Trouppe

He could rise as I fully evaluate their NeL achievements.

15. Eppa Rixey

Previous Top 10s:

Mackey is 22 and Medwick is 28 (although I’ve voted for him before). GVH is not my kind of hitter (decent prime but not a great peak). He’s 76.

A note on Reese, although it won’t matter. With no war credit – he’s behind GVH, in the low 90s. I don’t give war credit as a rule, but I did in this case to see if it would make a difference. Using an average of his performance in ’42, ’46 and ’47, and giving him that full benefit in ’43-’45, Reese would have been 18th. The number of HoMers that would never get a vote from me grows by one this year.
   108. OCF Posted: November 14, 2005 at 11:18 PM (#1731770)
Veach makes 74. Still waiting for jimd's ballot.
   109. Brad G Posted: November 14, 2005 at 11:46 PM (#1731830)
1.Joe Medwick- Career OPS+ = 134, tons of Ink, the one truly great year was enough to boost his peak/prime numbers above his peers.

2.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

3. Pee Wee Reese- Great career despite losing some prime years to the War.

4.Bobby Doerr- Career WARP3 = 98.9, Excellent defensive player.

5.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

6.Edd Roush- No matter what system I use, it always trends toward CFs. Roush put up some strong numbers, but probably not enough to get him in.

7.Tommy Leach- A big benefactor in my latest ratings system… particularly helped by his outstanding defenseive rating.

8.Cupid Childs- Questionable whether he was better than Gordon, but I don’t think he was quite at Doerr’s level.

9.Cool Papa Bell- By most subjective accounts, one of the greatest of the Negro Leaguers.

10.Jimmy Ryan- Still hanging around after all these years.

11.Joe Gordon- Excellent fielding 2B. Probably the best 2B of the 1940’s.

12.Joe Sewell- Yet another nice-hitting, very good defensive SS.

13.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941. And he only had 6 toes! The entrance of Feller on the ballot has knocked the other pitchers down a bit.

14.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Not only could he hit (1920 and 1922 being his standout years), but he had speed too, leading the league in SBs four times. Pretty good pitcher as well.

15.Bob Elliott- Hard to pinpoint anything exceptional in Elliott’s career stats, but the numbers are consistently above average.

The Biz ranks at #20.
Griffith and Rixey slightly lower.

Thanks!
   110. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 14, 2005 at 11:46 PM (#1731831)
Well, perhaps this argument has already been made, but Reese's Dodgers, from 1940-58 (excepting the years when Reese was off at war) did exceed their pythagorean record by a combined 40 games. That's about 2.7 wins per year, I believe.

Win Shares credits that, so I'm definitely not against factoring in that.

I'm also not against other intangible credits. But I do think you have to explain yourself a litlle bit more on your ballots if you're going that route, IMO.

I agree with DavidFoss that it's important to re-establish the groundwork for HoM election before childhood idols start popping up on the ballot.

Joe will tell you that has been one of his big worries with the project (if not his biggest).

Maybe each of us should abstain from voting for players who played for our favorite teams. Otherwise Tony Oliva and Kirby Puckett go to the top of my ballot! ;-)

Since I am a Met fan, Tom Seaver is the only guy that I can justify a high placement on the ballot (of course, Piazza is a HoMer, but I think of him as a Dodger).
   111. jimd Posted: November 14, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1731847)
"Only" 73 players have received votes so far. On the other hand, jimd hasn't voted yet.

I guess I have a reputation to maintain...

Maybe each of us should abstain from voting for players who played for our favorite teams.

My favorite Red Sox players as a kid were Monbouquette, Malzone, and Yaz. I think Yaz is probably a lock (1989 is more than a few years away), and I think I MIGHT be able to be objective about the other two ;-).
   112. OCF Posted: November 15, 2005 at 12:02 AM (#1731860)
Brad G, I don't see you mention Ferrell. Where does he rate with you?
   113. jimd Posted: November 15, 2005 at 12:02 AM (#1731861)
Ballot for 1964

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next month.

1) B. LEMON -- I'm surprised at the lack of support. My system rates Lemon clearly ahead of Ferrell (and I've been one of Wes' best friends). What more could you ask of a pitcher over a 9 year span?

2) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

4) P.W. REESE -- Would he have been an All-Star all 3 years 1943-45? I'm giving him 2 out of 3.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

6) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

7) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

8) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

9) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

10) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

12) J. TINKER -- Long career playing great defense; integral part of a great team.

13) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus keeps him on ballot.

14) J. MEDWICK -- Just hanging on.

15) C. P. BELL -- Just moving on.

Just missing the cut are:
16-18) Rabbit Maranville, Hugh Duffy, Tommy Leach,
19-21) Dick Redding, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan,
22-25) Dick Lundy, Eppa Rixey, Ray Schalk, Bobby Doerr,
26-28) Joe Gordon, Ned Williamson, Herman Long,
29-31) Wally Schang, Rube Waddell, Phil Rizzuto,
32-34) Jim McCormick, Edd Roush, Roger Bresnahan,
35-37) Vern Stephens, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
   114. jimd Posted: November 15, 2005 at 12:04 AM (#1731865)
I just posted my ballot but I'm not seeing it, even after refreshing.
   115. jimd Posted: November 15, 2005 at 12:05 AM (#1731866)
There it is. Never mind.
   116. KJOK Posted: November 15, 2005 at 12:17 AM (#1731888)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Best first baseman from 1880 – 1920.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Beckley as best post-1880 1st baseman due to playing time.

5. RED RUFFING, P. 31 POW, 113 WARP1, 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Batting prowess puts him ahead of the pitching glut.

6. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 28 POW, 83 WARP1, 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s.

7. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

8. EPPA RIXEY, P. 24 POW, 99 WARP1, 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

9. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period. Not as much ahead of Dave Bancroft as I originally thought.

10. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

11. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Best of the outfield glut.

14.BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

15.BOBBY DOERR, 2B. 40 POW, 107 WARP1, 234 RCAP & .539 OWP in 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Have him just ahead of Reese and Childs this time.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:
PEE WEE REESE, SS. 16 POW, 100 WARP1, 223 RCAP & .504 OWP in 9,470 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just behind Doerr and ahead of Childs as he doesn’t stand out that far vs. his contemporaries.

RETURNEES:

WES FARRELL, P. 31 POW, 88 WARP1, 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls a little short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP, 267 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 8,142 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Bob Johnson is better by almost every measuring stick.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

DOBE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.
   117. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 15, 2005 at 12:37 AM (#1731908)
1. Red Ruffing SP (3) - Not much of a peak, but with war credit he is 3rd among pitchers we've seen in translated IP, meaning he pitched forever. With war credit I have him as one of just 5 pitchers we've seen with 300 translated wins (he hit 300 exactly with my war credit).
2. Pee Wee Reese SS (n/e) - No extra credit needed :-) Giving him war credit he was more WARP1 than Beckley, and obviously a higher peak. The definition of very good player for a very long time. I've got him a hair behind Ruffing, but really, it could have gone either way.
3. Eppa Rixey SP (4) - Like Ruffing, a Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Niekro HoMer. Very similar Ruffing. Low peak for pitchers on this list, but so much career value.
4. Jake Beckley 1B (5) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.
5. Gavy Cravath RF (6) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.
6. Luke Easter 1B (7) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.
7. Virgil Trucks SP (n/e) - Hidden gem here, I didn't even notice it until I threw his numbers in my spreadsheet. I give him two full years of war credit for 1944-45, at an average of his 1942-43-46 level (after adjusting 1943 down a smidge for the war). He had some peak (I have him between Ruffing and Plank on my 'peak' score) and there's a lot of career value here.
8. Ralph Kiner LF (8) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.
9. Charley Jones LF (9) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?
10. Wes Ferrell SP (10) - Best peak of any pitcher on the ballot and fantastic hitter for a pitcher.
11. Bob Lemon SP (n/e) - Impressive peak, I have him just a hair behind Ferrell - note, Prospectus recalibrated their numbers again, so if you are comparing Lemon to old numbers you've input into a spreadsheet or something, you need to update everyone else's numbers too. The new numbers are making all pitchers look worse from what I've observed.
12. Phil Rizzuto SS (11) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP
13. Clark Griffith SP (12) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity or Three-Finger Brown from Griffith?
14. Joe Medwick LF (13) - Looking at Kiner made me realize I had Medwick too low.
15. George Van Haltren CF (14) - He could rank anywhere from 1 to 30, very tough to evaluate.

Honorable mention

16. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (15) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.
17. Vern Stephens SS (16) - I love shortstop that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Clearly better than Doerr IMO.
18. Dutch Leonard SP (26) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set. Bumping him further this week.
19. Bill Monroe 2B (17) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
20. Ernie Lombardi C (18) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
21. Biz Mackey C (19) - After further review he appears to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.
22. Cool Papa Bell CF (20) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?
23. Bucky Walters SP (29) - I was underrating him. I took a look at his RSI page - back when it existed, and he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a close call.
24. Jimmy Ryan OF (21) - Getting bumped again - could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
25. Joe Gordon 2B (22) - Clearly above the rest of the 2B pack.
26. Bobby Doerr SS (23) - Too close to call w/Gordon right now.
27. Wally Schang C (24) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.
28. George Sisler 1B (25) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
29. Dizzy Trout SP (27) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Moves up more with my pitcher re-evaluation.
30. Tommy Bridges SP (28) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. He'd slipped off my radar too.
31. Quincy Trouppe C (30) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
32. Bob Elliott 3B (31) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).
33. Urban Shocker SP (32) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
34. Burleigh Grimes SP (33) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.
35. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (34) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
36. Bob Johnson LF (35) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.
37. Dom DiMaggio CF (36) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
38. Joe Sewell SS (37) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Good, but not great, peak isn't enough to overcome his short career.
39. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (38) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
40. Willard Brown LF (39) - Tough to peg after considering his incredibly low walk rates.
41. Ed Williamson 3B (40) - Still on the board after 60+ years.
42. Dick Redding SP (41) - Can't see him as better than Grimes, but he's back on the board.
43. Rube Waddell SP (42) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.
44. Walker Cooper C (43) - Great hitter for a catcher, just a smidge below Bresnahan and Schang.
45. Mike Griffin CF (44) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
46. Hugh Duffy OF (45) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan.
47. Edd Roush CF (46) - Weak league hurts him.
48. Ben Taylor 1B (47) - Not that far off Beckley, shows how tight the ballot is.
49. Dobie Moore SS (48) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit.
50. Mel Harder SP (49) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
51. Vic Willis SP (50) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.
52. Bobo Newsom SP (51) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
53. Dick Lundy SS (52) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
54. Alejandro Oms OF (53) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
55. George Scales SS (54) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?
56. Charlie Keller LF (55) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long.
57. Pete Browning CF (56) - He's on the board again, but I cannot see ranking him over Keller. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation.
58. Cupid Childs 2B (57) - Good hitter, but 2B was a hitter's position in his time.
59. Larry Doyle 2B (58) - Ditto
60. John McGraw 3B (59) - More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
61. Tommy Henrich RF (60) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good comp.

Sal Maglie SP I've got him below Joss, even with Mexican League credit.

Jose Mendez SP I reconsidered him, but I still see him behind Gomez (I like the Hippo Vaughn comparison on his thread, if that's off, please tell me why), and I don't see the need to go lower with the rankings.

Leon Day SP I see him as Bucky Walters minus a year without the peak. If that's an inaccurate assessment, please help me out.
   118. OCF Posted: November 15, 2005 at 12:57 AM (#1731928)
78, tying the record. There's still room for more. Luque? Scales?
   119. karlmagnus Posted: November 15, 2005 at 01:07 AM (#1731939)
OCF, Jim Rice is not a problem, never one of my favorites, partly because I was abroad in '78 and not paying attention. Yaz is presumably a no-brainer. TIANT will be the conflict-of-interest king (and Wakefield and Manny (no-brainer, hopefully) if we're still doing this in 2020.)
   120. karlmagnus Posted: November 15, 2005 at 01:08 AM (#1731942)
Oh, and Dwight Evans, too, but more Tiant.
   121. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 15, 2005 at 01:23 AM (#1731960)
TIANT will be the conflict-of-interest king (and Wakefield and Manny (no-brainer, hopefully) if we're still doing this in 2020.)

Tiant has a case, but I think Wakefield will be your new Sam Leever (except he's not as good as the Goshen Schoolmaster).
   122. sunnyday2 Posted: November 15, 2005 at 01:29 AM (#1731967)
Reggie Smiff?
   123. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 15, 2005 at 02:00 AM (#1731994)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.

The new plaques will be posted a little later than normal tonight. This intestinal flu really knocked me for a loop.

Reese's plaque is finished, but I want to touch up Ferrell's.
   124. Kelly in SD Posted: November 15, 2005 at 02:02 AM (#1731997)
WOW!!

Who would have thought that Rick Ferrell would be the next catcher we elected?
   125. Paul Wendt Posted: November 15, 2005 at 02:03 AM (#1731998)
Reggie Smith and Lou Brock
Two of the great sabermetric Revelations

A poor man's, what, Santo and Garvey?
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