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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, November 21, 2005

1965 Ballot

IMPORTANT: We’re testing out the 20-man ballot this week!

Newbies: Larry Doby, Enos Slaughter, Mickey Vernon, Bobby Avila, Murry Dickson, and Hank Sauer.

Returnees: Red Ruffing, Joe Medwick, Bob Lemon, Biz Mackey, Eppa Rixey, Clark Griffith, George Van Haltren, and George Sisler.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 21, 2005 at 03:37 PM | 86 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 21, 2005 at 03:49 PM (#1740504)
hot topics
   2. TomH Posted: November 21, 2005 at 04:01 PM (#1740523)
Earliest I've ever voted. But a very busy 2 days of work, and then a looonng weekend. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

1965 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Clark Griffith (2) [8]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other player in our backlog.
2-Joe Sewell (4) [21]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP, AND very good defense. Y’all gonna dis Alan Trammell?
3-Enos Slaughter {new}
Pretty clear to me that he should rate above Cool Papa, another long-career OFer. Great baserunner, which is not reflected in many stats we use.
4-Larry Doby {new}
Fine research showing his solid pre-MLB years bumps him up. If I were a big peak voter, I’d have him even higher.
5-George Van Haltren (5) [9]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
6-Bob Lemon (7) [5]
Looks like I pegged him about where the rest of us have.
7-Red Ruffing (6) [3]
Eppa Rixey, plus he could hit. Nice World Series stats.
8-Bucky Walters (9) [25]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
9-John McGraw (10) [40]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
10-Cool Papa Bell (8) [11]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer. Our MLEs may understate Bell’s real value.
11-Joe Gordon (11) [24]
Nudges out Doerr; I might feel differently if Doerr had helped his team over the top in many close pennant races they lost.
12-Eppa Rixey (12) [7]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?
13-Biz Mackey (13) [6]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
14-Willard Brown (14) [18]
His closest comp seems to be Averill, but not quite the glove.
15-Frank Chance (15) [50]
Peerless leader. Managing may have Cost him playing time. A key cog on some dominant teams, and played well in many World Series. Probably more valuable defensively than most systems credit him for.

---------------------
tentative 16-26: Beckley, Sisler, Childs, Medwick, Rizzuto, Monroe, Kiner, Doerr, Bresnahan, Traynor, Moore

Others near the ballot:
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
Alejandro Oms … another fine NegL Ofer
   3. Daryn Posted: November 21, 2005 at 04:07 PM (#1740533)
1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

2. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

3. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment.

4. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Rixey at 3 and Griffith at 13, which results in 7 pitchers in the middle part of my ballot.

6. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits). I have to say I disagree with (and almost resent) comments that we are “beyond” things such as the SABR poll. You just have to decide how you are going to weight all the information.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

8. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (16) or Schang (30).

9. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

11. Bob Lemon – a bit of a ringer for Ferrell, who was one spot ahead when elected. I take Ferrell’s hitting advantage over Lemon’s slight pitching advantage.

12. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

13. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. I’ve decided to slot him right behind the two short career pitching balloters, though he could just as easily be ahead of them. He is barely better than Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin. It is tough to separate the wheat from the chaff among the pitchers.

14. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut. Slightly better than Doby.

15. Larry Doby – I’m giving him credit for 1946 and 1947. I compared him to both Medwick and Kiner and preferred both over him, for different reasons. As I mentioned on another thread, I’d prefer Albert Belle to all three of them. 15th may seem low, but I only have 4 Major League hitters ahead of him.

16. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

17. Enos Slaughter – with war credit, surpasses Van Haltren, Ryan, Arlett, Roush and Cravath (the latter three are 35 through 37 on my ballot).

18. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

19. Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining.

20. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher.

No required disclosures for the first time since 1915, I believe (helped by this extended ballot).
   4. karlmagnus Posted: November 21, 2005 at 04:14 PM (#1740540)
Slaughter has almost 2900 hits with 3 years war credit, or 2650 with 3 years 50% credit – however his OPS+ is only 126 even if you add another 500 hits at 140. Sisler’s peak’s better, Beckley’s career’s significantly longer. Well above Kiner/Wilson because of career length –put him just below Leever. Vernon’s very like Sam Rice, slightly better, not quite as long even with war credit, so put him just below. Assume Doby born in 1920, and give about 3 seasons of extra credit, puts him about 2000 hits at an OPS+ say still around 136 - below Slaughter but above Kiner, I think. Dickson less than .500, probably only around .500 with war credit, so off the bottom. Pafko short career and should get no war credit. Tough year!

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4- 3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1- 1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1 -2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1- 3-1-1-2-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2 -3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2 -3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3- 2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2 -3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-3-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3 -5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4 -3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8 -6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5 -6-7-5-5-4-4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5- 7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8- 6-6-5-5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just above Rixey.

7. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8 -9-7-7-6-8-8-7-9-8-7-9-8) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10- 11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10 -10-9-8-9-10-9-8-7-9 -9-8-10-9-8-10-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7 -11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12 -13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13 -13-14-13-11-10-9-11-10) Clark Griffith credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11- 10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11-11- 12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.
   5. Trevor P. Posted: November 21, 2005 at 04:15 PM (#1740541)
A thought, John - perhaps it'd be a good idea to announce in the thread's heading that this year we're testing out a twenty-space ballot?

Just in case some people haven't read the 1964 discussion thread.
   6. karlmagnus Posted: November 21, 2005 at 04:16 PM (#1740542)
11. (N/A) Bob Lemon 207-128, ERA+ of 119, plus he could hit with OPS+ of 82. Distinctly better than Ferrell, and deserves a year or so’s war credit, since he didn’t start till 25.

12. (N/A) Enos Slaughter 2383 hits, or about 2900 with 100% war credit. OPS+only 123, though. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .796. Should be marked down for vulgar showboat play in ’46 World Series, but I’ll be nice.

13. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10 -10-10-11-11-10-9-11- 12-11-14-13-11-13-13) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

14. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13-15-14) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

15. Larry Doby OPS+136, but only 1515 hits or say 2050 with 3 years NEL credit. TB+BB/PA .554, TB+BB/Outs .871. Looks like half way between Slaughter and Kiner to me.

OFF 15-BALLOT

16. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9 -11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15 -N/A-15-N/A-15) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Back on ballot after a few years just off.

17. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly, so now a little below. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

18. (N/A-10-12-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

19. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

20. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

OFF BALLOT

21. Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

22. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15- 15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A -14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

23. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

24. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

25. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

26. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

27. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
28.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
29. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
30. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
31. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
32. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
33. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6- 6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9- 12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
34. (N/A) Mickey Vernon 2495 hits plus say 300 for war credit. OPS+116, TB+BB/PA .477, TB+BB/Outs .711
35. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
36. Sal Maglie. At 175% of visible career he would have been 208-108, with a 126 ERA+ in 3015 innings. That puts him about here.
37. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
38. (N/A) Heinie Manush
39. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
40. Bob Elliott
41. (N/A) Dick Lundy
42. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12- 11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13 -14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
43. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
44. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11 -12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
45. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
46. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15- 12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
47. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
48. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
49. Kiki Cuyler
50. Deacon McGuire
51. Jack Quinn
52. Tony Mullane
53. Pye Traynor
54. Jim McCormick
55. Dick Redding
56. Joe Judge
57. Edd Roush
58. Spotswood Poles.
59. Larry Doyle
60. Roger Bresnahan.
61. Wayte Hoyt.
62. Joe Gordon.
63. Harry Hooper.
64. Jules Thomas.
65. Wilbur Cooper
66. Bruce Petway.
67. Jack Clements
68. Bill Monroe
69. Jose Mendez
70. Herb Pennock
71. Chief Bender
72. Ed Konetchy
73. Jesse Tannehill
74. Bobby Veach
75. Lave Cross
76. Tommy Leach.
77. Tom York
   7. TomH Posted: November 21, 2005 at 04:42 PM (#1740576)
just to be clear: my 5 extra spots go to
16 Beckley 17 Sisler 18 Childs 19 Medwick 20 Rizzuto
   8. ronw Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:04 PM (#1740601)
1965 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Pete Browning Failing to electing Pete is like failing to elect Hank Greenberg. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. When the Gladiator retired, only Brouthers, Connor, and Anson were probably better hitters.

2. Dick Redding I think he is like an Eddie Plank rather than an Eppa Rixey for career value. As a long-career flamethrower, maybe he is even a Nolan Ryan.

3. Larry Doby With Negro League credit, an easy HOMer, possibly up to Duke Snider level.

4. Enos Slaughter With war credit, he is in the HOM. Without it, he seems to be a Harry Hooper clone (who gets a little war credit himself).

5. Larry Doyle We generally elect hitters of this caliber, no matter what the fielding.

6. Dobie Moore Leapfrogs a couple of guys this week.

7. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

8. Cupid Childs More 1890’s infielders please.

9. John McGraw Fielding is the reason why the huge support for Jennings has not been applied to McGraw.

10.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

11. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

12. Tommy Bridges Seems remarkably similar to Whitey Ford. Durability seems to be an issue, but maybe those late 30’s early 40’s Tigers were revolutionary in protecting arms. They sure had a lot of good young pitchers (Bridges, Trucks, Trout, Newhouser, Rowe, Benton, Hutchinson, Auker) during this time, and maybe realized (like the aughts Cubs) that they could defy convention and use a few more starters then most teams.

13. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

14. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

15. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES (a lot of new notables this year)

16. Joe Medwick

17. Clark Griffith

18. George Sisler

19. Cool Papa Bell

20. Willard Brown

Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good. Still, I think I would rather have Lefty Gomez. For what it is worth, I see him as behind all HOM P except Red Faber.

Bob Lemon – I see him as virtually identical with Bucky Walters. Close but not enough.

Eppa Rixey – I’ve supported him in the past, but now I like a little more peak.

Mickey Vernon – Especially with war credit, very similar, but just behind, Jake Beckley.

Murry Dickson – More solid than I realized.

Andy Pafko – Good career, but not enough for the HOM.

Carl Furillo – Very similar to Pafko as a hitter.

Del Ennis – A bit higher than Pafko and Furillo. Seems an NL version of Roy Sievers.

Hank Sauer – With war credit, he is at the Ennis, Sievers level as a hitter.

Bobby Avila – With an extra 500 games at his WS/162 rate, he looks like Del Pratt. A bit higher rate, and he is Buddy Myer or Bobby Doerr.

Granny Hamner – Fielding is his strong suit.

Chico Carrasquel – Another fielder.

Gus Zernial – Seems below the Pafko-Furillo duo.

Jim Hearn – Fine career.

Solly Hemus – Surprisingly good hitter for a couple of years.

Stan Lopata – If he didn’t platoon with Seminick/Burgess all those years, would we be looking at Ernie Lombardi? OK, that’s probably a bit much, but Lopata could rake.

Carl Erskine – Oisk!

Bob Porterfield – He made an All-Star Game in 1954, but wasn’t a RonStar, as teammates Mickey Vernon and Dean Stone (!) also made the team.

Alex Kellner – Also made a lone All-Star Game (1949), but not a RonStar as teammates Eddie Joost and Lou Brissie (!) made the team.

Claude Johnson – I’m sorry that I had never heard of him before. Still, he doesn’t seem to have enough.
   9. yest Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:13 PM (#1740609)
<u>KARL I REPEAT IN THE FUTURE CAN YOU PLEASE PUT A SPACE IN YOUR VOTING HISTORY SO THE THREAD WOULDN'T EXPAND TO FAR</u>
   10. yest Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:14 PM (#1740610)
1965 ballot
Buck Leonard and Enos Slaughter make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Bob Lemon weaker league keeps him down (made my personal HoM in 1964)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
15. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
19. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
20. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Enos Slaughter would be in the 40s with out war credit (makes my personal HoM this year)
27. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
28. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
29. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
30. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
31. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
32. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
33. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
35. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Larry Doby
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot
   11. yest Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:19 PM (#1740621)
make that
Larry Doby not enogh career even with Negroe Leauge credit though a worthy Hall of Famer
   12. Evan Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:19 PM (#1740622)
Can someone edit Karl's ballot to fix the spacing?
   13. sunnyday2 Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:50 PM (#1740680)
Just as an aside, I don't see whatever it is in karl's ballot that is bugging some folks. I'm on Safari 1.3.1 now.
   14. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:55 PM (#1740693)
"Can someone edit Karl's ballot to fix the spacing?"

I'm on it.
   15. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:58 PM (#1740702)
How is that. Still slow typing a bit here, dang it.
   16. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 21, 2005 at 06:00 PM (#1740706)
So it's not just the spacing it's something else too. I can't get it to not wrap, unless I went in space by space to figure it out.
   17. yest Posted: November 21, 2005 at 06:02 PM (#1740710)
thanks Joe
   18. karlmagnus Posted: November 21, 2005 at 06:04 PM (#1740714)
It's not a problem on AOL, though other threads do run wide. Sorry yest, I will put spaces in for next "year" in the hope that others who now have the problem won't.
   19. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 21, 2005 at 08:41 PM (#1741004)
early ballot as I leave teh big city and my laptop tomorrow for Turkey Day

Bob Lemon and Dick Redding make my PHOM

1. Cupid Childs (3, PHOM 1939) - I took another look at him and have concluded that he is still the best plaeyr on the board, but man is it tight. There really are like 9 guys who coudl have been #1 for me but I see no reason to change things. Best 2B of the 19th century in my view.

2. Joe Medwick (4, PHOM 1960) - Sticks out just a tad from the other top OFers due to his WS peaks. I know that it is a small thing that many of you challenge but I must say that the smallest advntages can mean 3-6 spots on this ballot.

3. Hugh Duffy (5, PHOM 1964) - I am finally out of being one of the top conensus scorers with guys like Duffy and Redding making my PHOM) Best of the 1890's CF trio based on his peak.

4. Bob Lemon (6, PHOM 1965) - Very similar to Ferrell, but I like Wes peak a bit more.

5. Dick Redding (7, PHOM 1965) - Has been in my top 10 for so many years it is nice to finally be placing him in my PHOM. 2nd best NeL pitcher of the Dead Ball Era and probably one of the five best ever.

6. Charlie Keller (8) - Great peak and maybe the player most helped by my WWII credit system. I believe he missed a few MVP caliber season (30 WS).

7. Dobie Moore (10) - The Black Jennings, good enough to be #1 on this ballot. Moved up thanks to my reconsideration of he and Childs. Mayget get inot my PHOM very soon.

8. Bucky Walters (9) - Very similar to Lemon and Ferrell, in fact it may come down to how they hit. I woudl say offensively it goes Ferrell, Lemon, Walters (who is stil a good hitter) and Dean. That also happens to be my ranking of them overall as well.

9. Larry Doby (x) - Just a smidge above Earl Averill with is NeL credit, giving him asn extra year or two of prime. In the ML's I would say Averill was slightly better.

9a. Earl Averill
10. Ralph Kiner (11) - Great peak, great power. Everything you could want for a corner guy, short career though and I don't think he was as good as Keller was in the field.

10a. Bill Terry
11. Clark Griffith (12) - Best 19th century pitcher on the board and the 4th best pitcher of the 1890's. Certainly rather elect him than Welch.

12. Quincey Trouppe (13) - Nice peak for a catcher, our studies show him to have been very durable in season, which probalby matters more for catchers than an other position player.

13. Joe Gordon (14) - Slightly ahead of Doerr, though they are close. Gordon, in my view, had a slightly better peak and was slightly better defensively. I think they were about even offensively.

14. Pete Browning (15) - A special case that I don't usually consider with my other OFers. I think he was more of an offensive monster in his time than any other eligible player. However, and I know this is timelining (which I don't have a problem with if done right), I think his competition was low enough to put him down here instead of in my top 10.

15. Eppa Rixey (16) - I have him above Ruffing because I think he had more big years and had a more impressive career with war credit. I just wish the electorate saw it my way as well. Pitched a lot of innings and pitched them at a very good rate.

16. Bobby Doerr - Nearly even with Gordon
17. Al Rosen - What can I say? I am a peak guy.
18. Dizzy Dean
19. Enos Slaughter
20. George Van Haltren - I see these last two guys as extremely similar.

21-25 Sisler, Oms, Waddell, Bresnahan, Berger
26-30 Mendez, Elliot, Cravath, Brown, Willis
31-35 Mackey, Roush, Bell, Lundy, Rizzuto
36-40 Monroe, Ruffing, Veach, Doyle, Sewell
41-45 Shocker, B. Johnson, Leach, R. Thomas, McGraw
46-50 Stephens, Wilson, Chance, Traynor, Cicotte
51-55 Burns, Taylor, Ryan, Klein, Schang
56-60 Bancroft, Easter, Scales, C. Jones, Gomez

explanations
Ruffing - I see noting speicla about him and definitely have him behind Rixey. He would become the worst selection we ahve made since 1935 (my first year) would be be elected, slightly edging out Max Carey.

Mackey - Long career, but no peak.

GVH and Sisler are #'s 20 and 21 respectively, they aren't bad choices I just think there are a few other guys better than they were.
   20. Adam Schafer Posted: November 21, 2005 at 09:42 PM (#1741114)
Looks like the Welch supports are getting their ballots in early.

1. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back
then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this
since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got
elected) on the same team pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching
categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

2. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push
him up this high on my ballot.

3. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

4. Bob Lemon - Top 3 in wins 8 out of 9 years, top 10 in wins 9 years straight.

5. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

6. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

7. Enos Slaughter - I give him reasonable war credit which gets him this high on my ballot.

8. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman.

9. Red Ruffing - Did he pitch for good teams? Absolutely. That's not his fault.

10. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a
dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

11. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

12. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

13. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

14. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

15. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away. I did decide to move him up quite a
bit, but I also felt the need to move Schang and Rixey down on my ballot after taking another look at them (yet again).

16. Eppa Rixey - Not as excited about him as I once was, but he's hanging around the bottom of my ballot.

17. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

18. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a lot more

19. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

20. Cool Papa Bell - creeps up a little bit to take over this position from Bresnahan
   21. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 22, 2005 at 01:37 AM (#1741530)
A thought, John - perhaps it'd be a good idea to announce in the thread's heading that this year we're testing out a twenty-space ballot?

Oops! Forgot about that. Sorry, guys.
   22. EricC Posted: November 22, 2005 at 01:43 AM (#1741544)
1965 ballot. Latest league factor revisions favor the NL more than before, and shift some names on and off the bottom of the ballot.

I was tempted to not list a 16-20, because I do not agree with expanding the ballot.

1. Enos Slaughter With war credit, more than 400 career WS as an outfielder in the 1940s-1950s NL. I'll take that. Take WS/162 with caution, as it unfairly penalizes players such as Slaughter with significant numbers of games as a PH. Someday will be joined by the Alous and Sammy Sosa in the crossword HoM.

2. Wally Schang Tremendous career value in his long career, many seasons with > 120 OPS+ as a C. An OBP-heavy OPS, ranking 2nd all time among C in career OBP. Low in-season catcher usage during this era taken into account.

3. Joe Sewell 87.4 WARP3 in 1903 games is arguably a HoM-worthy career, while the number of seasons among the top N players in league is evidence of a HoM-worthy peak. Like with Schang, the answer to AL vs. NL league strength in the 1910s-1920s has a big effect on his all-time standing. And, like Schang, would help fill in the 1920s gap. :-)

4. Red Ruffing We haven't seen anybody quite like him; a tad below
Eddie Plank and a tad above Rixey IMO is the best description. A lower peak than any other pitcher I've voted for so strongly, but his great career length for his era more than makes up for it. More career WS as a Yankee than any other pitcher.

5. Joe Gordon With all the discussion about WWII credit, how much
difference will it make between anybody getting elected or not? Comparisons with the performance of similar players by age suggests that he may have missed out on some great seasons. The downside is that Gordon + war credit may look too much like Sewell for some.

6. Bobby Doerr A great 2B; another player who edges up because of war credit.

7. Charlie Keller Won't make the HoM because injuries curtailed his career, but his prime looks like the real deal to me, as a perennial (non-Ted Williams) all star and MVP-level player. Had his best seasons in the worst-possible time to be a post-1920 slugger and lost nearly two seasons at his probable peak.

8. Joe Medwick Played like an inner-circle HoMer for 3 years, but like a non-HoMer the rest of his career, averaging out to a borderline HoM candidate. Looking better and better as time goes on.

9. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.

10. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; Gomez is perhaps a reasonable comparison.

11. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in 2826 IP in the 1930-1943 AL.

12. Biz Mackey One of the greatest NeL catchers. Looked at Trouppe again, but still have more confidence in Mackey as a bona fide candidate. As Radcliffe and Petway are also still in the NeL C glut, looking forward to comprehensive NeL statistical data to do a better job of sorting everybody out.

13. Ernie Lombardi Helped by reevaluation of league factors. Even with WWII deduction, of the best hitting C ever.

14. Dutch Leonard In the tradition of pitchers such as Waite Hoyt, he makes my ballot as a long-career good pitcher with some very good years and a little relief pitching "bonus".

15. Bob Elliott Another NLer helped by reevaluation of league factors. The kind of player my system likes: an IF with a good and consistent prime.

16. Ralph Kiner. Go figure. After branding myself as an EoRK in his discussion thread, he's on target to make my ballot next year!

17. Lefty Gomez
18. Phil Rizzuto
19. Pie Traynor

20. Larry Doby. Might be a controversial omission. Using his age and ML performance, I used the performance of similar players (e.g. Berger) to extrapolate the most likely ML career without the color barrier. This kind of extrapolation is extremely dependent on age. With his official birthdate of 13 Dec. 1923, he only figures to have played about 2 half seasons as an averagish player before 1947. I thus see his net career as below Averill's and above Berger's and have him ranked in accordance. Now, the big problem is that he may have been born before 1923, in which case his extrapolation would be better, putting him on the ballot. On the other hand, is his case really as cut and dry as the electorate may think?

Rixey, Griffith, and Van Haltren have all made my ballot in past years.

Bob Lemon was very good, but with a slight league discount, his career ERA+/IP+, in context, is in a range where most comparable pitchers are not HoMers.

I have Sisler lowest among the returning top-10. While I sympathize with his case, I have to go by what he accomplished, and his prime wasn't quite dominant and long enough for me.
   23. Rick A. Posted: November 22, 2005 at 03:51 AM (#1741810)
Little early this week.

Good year for Cleveland as 2 Indians make my PHOM.
PHOM
Larry Doby
Lou Boudreau

1965 Ballot
1.Larry Doby – Elected PHOM in 1965.
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
5.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
6.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
7.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
8.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
9.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
10.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information.
12.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot
13. Enos Slaughter – Great career value and very good prime value.
14.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings..
15.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
16.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation.
17.Bob Lemon – A step behind Ferrell. Very close to Walters and Dean.
18.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
19.George Sisler – Too many good candidates to make my ballot. Definitely think WS underrates him
20.Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus.

Required Disclosures
Joe Medwick – I think WS has him right. Very close to Bob Johnson though.

Red Ruffing & Eppa Rixey – Low peak, long career pichers don't rate well in my system. (Grimes has a higher peak than Ruffing or Rixey)

Van Haltren and Griffith are ranked around 50

21-25 Medwick, Mays, Bell, Bresnahan, Oms
26-30 Roush, Cooper, Johnson, Waddell, McGraw
31-35 Cravath, Rosen, Leach, Ruffing, Keller
36-40 Elliott, Gordon, Stephens, Schang, Doyle
41-45 Easter, Poles, Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr
46-50 F. Jones, Van Haltren, Rixey, Taylor, Trouppe
   24. Rusty Priske Posted: November 22, 2005 at 02:43 PM (#1742208)
PHoM: Enos Slaughter & Larry Doby

1. Red Ruffing (1,3,3)

On the cusp for a couple of years now.

2. George Van Haltren (2,2,4)

One day, George. One day...

3. Enos Slaughter (new)

An easy HoMer.

4. Willard Brown (3,6,5)

Where is the love?

5. Joe Medwick (5,5,7)

Ruffing, take 2.

6. Eppa Rixey (4,4,6)
7. Mickey Welch (8,7,11)
8. Cool Papa Bell (7,9,10)
9. Jake Beckley (6,8,8)

I would be happy if any of these guys got in this year.

10. Biz Mackey (8,10,9)
11. Dobie Moore (11,12,14)
12. Tommy Leach (14,13,12)

All in my PHoM from weaker years.

13. Larry Doby (new)

Not a slam dunk, but deserving of a place.

14. George Sisler (12,15,13)
15. Hugh Duffy (13,14,15)

16-20. Roush, Vernon, Trouppe, Rice, Ryan
21-25. Lemon, Griffith, Powell, Childs, White
26-30. Redding, Streeter, H. Smith, Doerr, Browning
   25. karlmagnus Posted: November 22, 2005 at 04:04 PM (#1742284)
John, technically we're testing, not introducing the 20-man ballot, aren't we?
   26. karlmagnus Posted: November 22, 2005 at 04:05 PM (#1742285)
John, technically we're testing, not introducing the 20-man ballot, aren't we?
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: November 22, 2005 at 04:35 PM (#1742322)
1965 ballot, our 68th

I am convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I like to think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.
This has become my Year of the Pitcher.

1. EPPA RIXEY - I guess I'm his best friend. See my note on the Bob Lemon thread. A misunderstood career, I think because people found him wanting compared to other guys with that incredible number of IP. But pretend he's a shorter-career guy, and suddenly he looks better than the Ferrells or the Lemons. Plus he's got his own solid collection of top 10 IP finishes, so we don't have a Griffith situation here. Eppa missed his age 27 season to WW I (and much of the age 28 season), and I wonder how many have accounted for that, either. Better than Ruffing over full career context, too.
2. JAKE BECKLEY - His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Long, long career of "quite good" is quite unusual. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Some parallels to Rixey.

3. ENOS SLAUGHTER - Outstanding player in 1941-42 at age 25-26, and a good one in 1946 and 1948; very good in 1949 and so on. With war credits of roughly 145, 135, 125 OPS+s, he'd gain a slight edge over Beckley in Years 1-9 - one that is only undone by Beckley's endless career as a solid regular and by the greater importance of Beckley's fielding. They are close.
4. LARRY DOBY - Not nearly as good a hitter as Kiner without Negro League/WW II credit. Still not quite in Kiner's league even then, but edge in longevity and fielding at with some bonuses allow Doby to slide ahead. Not the no-brainer that some people think, as I am not as convinced of Doby's WW II-years greatness as I am of Slaughter's (considering established level of play only by Slaughter).
5. RED RUFFING - I hate putting him this high, because I would so much rather see Rixey elected first. But the numbers don't lie, and they are quite similar to Rixey's. Tiny edge on peak, which Rixey only reverses with superior war credit and late-career advantage.A little WW II credit helps, and he really racked up the innings.
6. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that. I agree that this is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment.
7. BOB LEMON - So close to this bunch. Seven straight years in the top 4 in IP, and in four of those years he was right there with the best "rate" pitchers as well. Also a very good hitter; how much that is worth to you may determine the fate of a lot of these pitchers.
8. GEORGE SISLER - The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
9. CUPID CHILDS - I discount the heck out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven 120 OPS+s here. A full-length career for this brutal era is darn impressive.
10. PETE BROWNING - Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Almost would be No. 1 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
11. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than Medwick; I like mashers like this, and a little war credit. Is getting underrated by the electorate.
12. CLARK GRIFFITH - Regains two of the spots he lost last ballot. Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
13. COOL PAPA BELL - This is conceding that park and steals led him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd have been in the HOM more a decade ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
14. JOE MEDWICK - Helped a little by a recent review. Very nice 5, 8, 10-year numbers.
15. BOB ELLIOTT - Probably better than HOMer Hack, has returned to my ballot. Wish he'd play all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie.

EXPERIMENTAL 16-20
16. GAVY CRAVATH - Gets his second vote from me. The key is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter. And his work in his 30s is just outstanding. Could move up further.
17. MICKEY WELCH - Will return to the ballot someday. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
18. GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Yes, the three levels of league-average SPing are worth something. I dismissed him long ago, but as the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back toward the top 15.
19. ROGER BRESNAHAN - I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years.
20. JOE GORDON - Candidacies of Doby and Slaughter confirm that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison.
(WBrown-Moore-Mendez-Sewell-Leach are 21-25).

NEWBIE UNWORTHY
MICKEY VERNON - Very clear from my notes on his thread that he's nowhere near Beckley, even with two years of war credit.

TOP 10 RETURNEE STILL SNUBBED
BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread. Sisler - one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career. McGuire - long career as a C, but played not always that often or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth?
   28. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 22, 2005 at 04:37 PM (#1742323)
John, technically we're testing, not introducing the 20-man ballot, aren't we?

Correct. I'll revise the intro to make that clearer.
   29. Mike Webber Posted: November 22, 2005 at 09:17 PM (#1742834)
I use Win Shares, career first, bonus for peak, and try to balance out the positions a little.

1)ENOS SLAUGHTER – Slaughter, with war credit I think he is easily the best player on the board. Without it, I still there is still a strong argument for being in an elect me spot. 323 career win shares, Top 10 in MVP voting 5 times.
2)JOE MEDWICK – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified
3)EDD ROUSH –314 win shares, I’m Edd’s best friend.
4)LARRY DOBY – Reluctant to give him very much in the way of Negro League credit., but he still ends up here. His peak boost him ahead of the next two on my ballot.
5) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak.
6)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Without setting off a firestorm I hope, why are those who are ga-ga over Beckley not high on this guy?
7)COOL PAPA BELL – FYI Rankings of Best Negro League Players, 1999 By SABR Negro Leagues committee
[block]Rk Player Votes %
1 Paige, Satchel 85 100.0%
1 Leonard, Buck 85 100.0%
3 Bell, Cool Papa 84 98.8%
[/block]
8) RALPH KINER – his peak doesn’t move him ahead of the other Ofers that have 60 to 80 more career win shares.
9) BOBBY DOERR – lacks outstanding peak.
10)CARL MAYS –I think he has to go ahead of Lemon.
11)JOE GORDON Managed both the KC A’s and KC Royals.
12)BOB LEMON Replaced Gordon as Royals manager.
13)RED RUFFING – About the same as Rixey, however I think his weak peak is more the norm for his era than Rixey.
14)EPPA RIXEY
15)GEORGE SISLER – Good combo of peak and career value.
16)ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, I lowered him just below Sisler 3-4 elections ago due to Sisler’s superior career total. Roger and Schang are both ahead of Mackey.
17)RUBE WADDELL – seems like the arguments for last elections pitching inductee could apply to Rube. Well, not the part about hitting, but shape and quantity of his value.
18)PIE TRAYNOR – Slightly ahead of Elliot and Rosen. I am not sure there is an eligible third baseman – depending on how your classify Leach – that is HOM worthy.
19)LARRY DOYLE – I see all the arguments for Doyle, if his fielding wasn’t so in question, I think he’d be in.
20)DIZZY DEAN – This guy I think is closer to definitely in, than definitely out. The one thing I like about 20 person ballot, is a possibly new discussion of some players, like Dean and Sewell.

21-30 Warneke, Berger, Rizzuto, Rosen, Elliott, Lazzeri, H. Wilson, Redding, Duffy, Schang

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang, Griffith – about 40th, and Trucks is about even with him.

Mickey Vernon is about 40th. One of the many nice things about being married to a doctor is you can ask about weird player injuries. I suppose you have read that Mickey had back problems for years, which went away after appendix surgery. My doctor definitely confirms that appendix pain can definitely radiate to the back, as opposed to the lower right quadrant the classic presentation. And it can continue for years, if unfixed. But the possibility of poor medical care affecting your career doesn’t qualify for the type of credit usually given.
But I guess you could, I mean if you are giving credit for teaching school instead pitching in the major leagues, I’d say poor medical care is definitely equally merit-worthy.
   30. Daryn Posted: November 22, 2005 at 09:33 PM (#1742869)
Without setting off a firestorm I hope, why are those who are ga-ga over Beckley not high on this guy?

Granting the premise -- if they are so similar how come Beckley is nowhere to be seen on your ballot? They both make my newly-expanded ballot -- Beckley's slightly higher OPS+ and 3 extra seasons with concomitant extra counting stats are the difference between 2nd and 18th on my ballot - the gap would be greater if it weren't for GVH's pitching.
   31. KJOK Posted: November 22, 2005 at 11:27 PM (#1743149)
Without setting off a firestorm I hope, why are those who are ga-ga over Beckley not high on this guy?

Because Beckley's #1 at his position during his "era" (centered around 30 years) while Van Haltren's about the 7th best CFer during HIS era.
   32. Mark Donelson Posted: November 22, 2005 at 11:50 PM (#1743189)
1965 ballot

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. Doby and Irvin make my pHOM this year.

1. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Best unelected hitter, at least for the peak-centric.

2. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). We still need more pitchers, and to me, he looks like the best one still out there.Would have loved to see him pitch.

3. Larry Doby (pHOM 1965). I don’t really care what year it turns out he was born. The NeL credit gives him an extended peak that makes him the best of the eligible outfielders, IMO. He may not have turned out quite as good in the majors as his NeL numbers would have led people to expect, but he was still plenty good.

4. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I’m still his best friend, even after demoting him a bit last time around. Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

5. Joe Medwick (pHOM 1958). The peak is persuasive.

6. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). It seems most of us agree this era is a bit underrepresented; it’s just that we can’t agree on whether Duffy, the peak candidate, or Van Haltren, the career candidate deserves to go in (poor Jimmy Ryan gets lost between the two). If this were the U.S. Senate, we’d have compromised and gotten both in ages ago. (One more reason the HOM is better than the U.S. Senate!)

7. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another high-peaking infielder.

8. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Underrated (or so says my dropping consensus score). Impressive peak, lots of Ks.

9. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

10. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). A great hitter, even if he didn’t walk much.

11. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

[11a.] Monte Irvin. (pHOM 1965). I’d underrated him in his first couple of years of eligibility, and so he makes my pHOM just a couple of years late.

[11b.] Earl Averill. Another outfielder I’ve made wait a bit longer than most did. Not the best of the remaining CFs, but in the top group of them. Next in line now for my pHOM.

12. Quincy Trouppe. All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers.

13. Bucky Walters. Another underrated pitcher with an appealing peak.

14. Al Rosen. Well, if nothing else, this experiment of going to 20 votes this year seems to have ended my loneliness on Rosen. I knew I could count on jschmeagol! Anyway, normally even I don’t go for guys with peaks this short, but his position gives him a decent boost in my system—I think we need more 3Bs.

15. Charlie Keller. Quite close to Kiner overall; a very underappreciated and underrated player (well, if you’re a peak voter, anyway).

16. George Sisler (pHOM 1939). The stretch to 20 brings Gorgeous George back to my ballot, after being demoted on reappraisal a few years back.

17. Roger Bresnahan. He moved up a bit on last year’s reappraisal, and now makes my ballot in this noncounting spot. We need more catchers, and he played the position enough to qualify (if he’d played it more, he’d be significantly higher).

18. Dizzy Dean. Ol’ Diz has been up and down with me. The premature discussion of Koufax made me take another look at him and Joss, and both moved back up. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not higher), but it’s an impressive one.

19. Joe Gordon. I thought I’d never type his full name. A solid infielder who I may still be underappreciating.

20. Charley Jones. Another player I may still have too low; I’ve never been fully happy with my analysis of him (as well as of Pete Browning, who’s a few places below). His peak is prodigious, but how real are those numbers?
   33. Mark Donelson Posted: November 22, 2005 at 11:51 PM (#1743190)
21-25: Doyle, Browning, Slaughter, McCormick, Mackey.
26-30: Berger, H. Wilson, Oms, Redding, Cicotte.
31-35: Poles, Leach, Cravath, Doerr, Roush
36-40: Chance, Ryan, Burns, Joss, Dunlap
41-45: Pesky, Lemon, Van Haltren, Griffith, Veach
46-50: Mays, Rizzuto, Welch, McGraw, B. Johnson

EXPLANATIONS:

•Ruffing. Obviously not a peak voter’s cup of tea. Not in my top 50.

•Lemon. He was arguably the best pitcher in the AL for a while there, but the numbers themselves aren’t that stellar—he has a nice little peak, with the emphasis on “little.” I’m not a big fan of many of the AL pitchers of this era. He ends up at #42.

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone; he’s at #25.

•Rixey. Well above Ruffing, but still no peak to speak of. Just outside my top 50.

•Griffith. I like him better than Rixey or Ruffing, but there’s still limited appeal here for a peak voter. He’s at #44.

•Van Haltren. Very much like Griffith; not a peak voter’s kind of hitter, really. He’s right above Griffith at #43.

•Slaughter. Not being a career voter, I feel like I’d have to give him a ridiculous amount of war credit to get him on my ballot. Now, I do give a humongous amount of war credit, but not a ridiculous amount…He debuts at #23, right behind Browning.

•Vernon. He’s kind of Slaughter-very-lite, but since I’m not exactly Country’s biggest fan, I’m certainly not terribly high on Vernon either. Seems a classic Hall of Very Good type; he’s just outside my top 50.

•Dickson. Certainly better than I realized (I’d not even heard of the man), but he’s also not close for me—not really a peak-lover’s type. Not close to my top 50.

•Pafko, Ennis, Furillo, Sauer. All solid players, none close to my top 50.

•Avila. The Mexican League years push him up, but not quite into my top 50; he’s pretty close to Dave Bancroft overall.
   34. DavidFoss Posted: November 23, 2005 at 12:00 AM (#1743202)
Beckley's #1 at his position during his "era" (centered around 30 years)

I'll grant you that there is a 30-year gap of 1B HOM-ers between Brouthers/Connor and Gehrig/Terry, but Beckley is only ten years younger than Brouthers/Connor. The primes of B & C actually overlap with 7-8 years of Beckley's career.
   35. KJOK Posted: November 23, 2005 at 12:27 AM (#1743239)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Best first baseman from 1880 – 1920.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Beckley as best post-1880 thru 1920 1st baseman due to playing time.

5. RED RUFFING, P. 31 POW, 113 WARP1, 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Batting prowess puts him ahead of the pitching glut.

6. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 28 POW, 83 WARP1, 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s, and in the top 10 of his 30 year era.

7. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

8. EPPA RIXEY, P. 24 POW, 99 WARP1, 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

9. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

10. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

11. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Best of the outfield glut.

14.LARRY DOBY, CF. 18 POW, .679 OWP, 308 RCAP, 80 WARP1, 6,302 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Add in a few great Negro League seasons, and Doby stacks up with the HOM outfielders.

15.BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

16.BOBBY DOERR, 2B. 40 POW, 107 WARP1, 234 RCAP & .539 OWP in 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Have him just ahead of Childs this time.

17.CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

18. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

19. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

20. BOB LEMON, P. 34 POW, 93 WARP1, 180 RSAA, 162 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 119 ERA+ in 2,849 innings. He was very good for awhile, and he could hit.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:
ENOS SLAUGHTER, RF. 15 POW, .628 OWP, 237 RCAP, 99 WARP1, 9,084 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. The Eppa Rixey of outfielders? Very good for a long time.

RETURNEES:

JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP, 267 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 8,142 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Bob Johnson is better by almost every measuring stick.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that. Not sure he was really better than teammate Dolph Luque, so he falls short on the ballot.
   36. KJOK Posted: November 23, 2005 at 12:42 AM (#1743253)
I'll grant you that there is a 30-year gap of 1B HOM-ers between Brouthers/Connor and Gehrig/Terry, but Beckley is only ten years younger than Brouthers/Connor. The primes of B & C actually overlap with 7-8 years of Beckley's career.

And I'll grant you that point, but that leaves 1897 -1916. So, who's your all-MLB first team 1st baseman during that time who had the greatest career? I think it has to be either Beckley or Chance or Taylor, with consideration to Ed Konetchy, Jake Daubert, Fred Tenney and Harry Davis.
   37. OCF Posted: November 23, 2005 at 01:00 AM (#1743293)
The time gap between Mize and McCovey isn't as long as the gap between ABC and Gehrig, but who is the best first baseman of the 50's (other than Musial, whom I mostly think of as an outfielder)?

Well, actually, hard to tell yet which of Cepeda or McCovey will have the better career. McCovey just spent last season as a part-time outfielder, with Cepeda occupying 1B. Doesn't make a lot of sense - what are the Giants going to do about it in the long run?
   38. DavidFoss Posted: November 23, 2005 at 01:15 AM (#1743320)
Well, actually, hard to tell yet which of Cepeda or McCovey will have the better career.

Same age, same rate stats, but Cepeda's got twice as many AB's due to an earlier call-up and being the incumbent at the position (McCovey has had to fight for AB's).

Cepeda's age comps are GriffeyJr, Aaron and FRobinson.
McCovey's age comps are Sexson, Belle, and McGriff.

Using bb-ref's projection using comps tool gives much different projections for the two (Cepeda 499 HR/ McCovey 380 HR):

Cepeda after 26 Projection

McCovey after 26 Projection
   39. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 23, 2005 at 02:08 AM (#1743388)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Larry Doby-CF/2B (n/e): Whether he was born in 1919 or 1923 is inconsequential to me: he was a great player in the NeL and a great player in the ML. I'm giving him NeL credit starting from the time that he would have been noticed by the ML. Best ML centerfielder for 1950 and 1951. Best AL centerfielder for 1952.

2) Enos Slaughter-RF (n/e): WWII credit, a long career, and a good peak land him here. Best ML right fielder for 1942, 1946, and 1952.

3) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

4) Alejandro Oms-CF (3): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

5) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (4): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (5): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (6): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) George Van Haltren-CF/P (7): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

9) Tommy Bridges-P (8): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

10) Jake Beckley-1B (9): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

11) Wally Schang-C (10): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (11): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Mickey Welch-P (12): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

14) Pete Browning-CF/LF (13): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

15) Frank Chance-1B/C (14): Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

16) Charley Jones-LF/CF (15): Back on my ballot after quite a few elections off it. He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

17) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (n/e): I'm comfortable enough with his MLEs to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league right fielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

18) Pie Traynor-3B (n/e): Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

19) Tony Mullane-P/OF (n/e): Talk about forgotten around here. I don't think he's a HoMer, but the guy was up there.

20) Dobie Moore-SS (n/e): First time on my ballot. Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Medwick, Ruffing, Lemon, Griffith, Rixey, Mackey, Van Haltren, and Sisler all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   40. Brent Posted: November 23, 2005 at 05:19 AM (#1743494)
1965 Ballot:

Slaughter and Doby enter my PHoM.

1. Bob Lemon – Lemon takes Wes’s place at the top of my backlog. I hope it won’t take him 21 years to be elected. Over 9 seasons (1948-56) he averaged 21-12, 1.1 wins above team, 272 IP, 111 DERA+, 88 OPS+. (PHoM 1964)

2. Enos Slaughter – 6 seasons with 23+ WS with a high of 37 WS; age 27-29 seasons lost to military service. His 2.86 fielding WS / 1000 innings is excellent for a pure corner outfielder. Three top-3 finishes in MVP voting. (PHoM 1965)

3. Larry Doby – 9 seasons with 23+ WS (or MLE WS) with a high of 34 WS. Runner up in 1954 MVP contest. (PHoM 1965)

4. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

5. Clark Griffith – Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 124 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

6. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

7. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 116 DERA+.

8. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+, MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

9. Ducky Medwick – 7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. His 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. MVP for 1937. (PHoM 1958)

10. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 128 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB, MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

11. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 25+ WS.

12. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley.

13. Burleigh Grimes – Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 115 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

14. Red Ruffing – Over 8 seasons (1925, 28, 32, 35-39) he averaged 17-12, 0.4 wins above team, 249 IP, 119 DERA+, 88 OPS+.

15. Phil Rizzuto – Can’t a shortstop be elected to the HoM primarily on the basis of his glove? Among HoM eligible players with at least 10,000 innings at shortstop, the Scooter ranks third in fielding WS / 1000 innings with 7.14. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; age 25-27 seasons lost to military service.

Test ballot:

16. Charlie Keller
17. Biz Mackey
18. Roger Bresnahan
19. Cool Papa Bell
20. Buzz Arlett

21-25: Redding, Leach (PHoM 1932), Cravath, Gordon, Matlock

Off ballot:

36. Eppa Rixey

45. George Van Haltren

53. George Sisler

Other new arrivals:

Both Mickey Vernon (# 81) and Bobby Avila (# 83) had HoM-level talent, but either caught some bad breaks or had trouble staying healthy. Of course, the same could be said of dozens of other players. Murry Dickson didn’t make my top 100, but he came a lot closer than I would have guessed.
   41. Sean Gilman Posted: November 23, 2005 at 05:47 AM (#1743503)
1965

1. Larry Doby (-)--Very close race for the top spot this year. Ultimately in came down to Doby’s MLE credit vs. Slaughter’s WW2 credit, with the tie going to the guy who was actually playing baseball.

2. Enos Slaughter (-)--Browning and Jones have better peaks, but Doby and Slaughter have bigger edges in career value.

3. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares. According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. Just how big is your AA discount? (1927)

4. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

6. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

7. Clark Griffith (6)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

8. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

9. George Sisler (8)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

10. Cool Papa Bell (9)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

11. Eppa Rixey (10)--Griffith’s got a big edge in peak, and his career value doesn’t make up the difference. It does give him the edge over the short/career/high peak pitchers though.(1960)

12. Hugh Duffy (11)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

13. George Van Haltren (13)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually.

14. Carl Mays (14)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell.

15. Biz Mackey (15)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage.

16. Willard Brown (16)--Big career advantage over Sewell.

17. Joe Sewell (17)--Overrated, underrated. Tomato, potato. The gap between him and #8 Doyle is tiny, despite the 9 ballot spots.

18. Edd Roush (18)--I’ve always prefered him to Averill or Medwick.

19. Alejandro Oms (19)--Very comparable to Roush. Why hadn’t anyone heard of him?

20. Quincy Trouppe (20)--Him too. Good peak, career a little short compared to Mackey, but Bresnahan’s is even shorter.

21. Red Ruffing (21)
22. Vern Stephens (22)
23. Bob Lemon (23)
24. Roger Bresnahan (24)
25. Joe Medwick (25)
26. Bob Elliott (26)
27. Ed Williamson (27)
28. Jose Mendez (28)
29. Bobby Doerr (29)
30. Dave Bancroft (30)
   42. sunnyday2 Posted: November 23, 2005 at 04:01 PM (#1743704)
1965

An up and down year. Two months after seeing the 2nd and 7th games of the World Series with my father (I was 15 years old) and a few days before Christmas (by which time I was 16) he was diagnosed with terminal colon cancer.

Larry Doby is an obvious PHoMer to me. I decided to slot John Beckwith into my PHoM ahead of Enos Slaughter. Addie Joss, Stan Hack, Joe Gordon, Alejandro Oms, Bob Lemon and Dick Redding also were considered.

1. Dobie Moore (1 last week-2-3, PHoM 1942)--Still the best player available at his peak.

2. Larry Doby (new, PHoM 1965)--shows up pretty big on Moneyball study, plus played defense.

3. Joe Medwick (2-3-4, PHoM 1954)
4. George Sisler (3-4-5, PHoM 1938)
5. Pete Browning (5-6-7, PHoM 1961)
6. Ralph Kiner (6-8-9, PHoM 1964)--big peak hitters.

7. Rube Waddell (8-9-10, PHoM 1932)
8. Jose Mendez (9-10-11, PHoM 1957)--re-evaluated pitchers, both move ahead of Tommy Bond.

9. Tommy Bond (4-5-6, PHoM 1929)--he doesn't fall too far.

(9a. John Beckwith--PHoM 1965)

10. Enos Slaughter (new)--not enough peak to slide into PHoM right away but clearly ballot-worthy.

11. Addie Joss (10-11-12)--second best prime ERA+ available after Waddell.

12. Ed Williamson (11-12-13, PHoM 1924)--comps include Jimmy Collins and Stan Hack.

13. Willard Brown (12-13-14)--Beckwith light as I was reminded in my 1965 PHoM eval.

(13a. Stan Hack)

14. Charley Jones (14-15-x, PHoM 1921)--without blacklist credit.

15. Dick Redding (13-14-15)--remains behind Joss, stays ahead of Lemon.

Drops out of top 15: Joe Gordon (15-x-x)

16. Joe Gordon
17. Vern Stephens
18. Larry Doyle
19. Bobby Doerr--the middle IF who could hit glut

20. Bob Lemon--I had underrated Lemon, he is now the #4 ML pitcher, though also behind Mendez and Redding.

Drops out of top 20: Charlie Keller falls behind Bob Lemon
   43. SWW Posted: November 23, 2005 at 05:41 PM (#1743902)
You know, first you elect Jennings. Then you elect Ferrell. Now you’re asking for a 20-man ballot. It’s like I can’t agree with you guys on anything. Well, just for that, I’m taking the drumstick.

<u>1965 Ballot</u>
1)Enos Bradsher Slaughter – “Country”
A slight edge for the top spot, based on career. There is a certain six-of-one, half-a-dozen-of-the-other element, though. Numbers are impressive even before factoring in the war. Love seeing him paired with...
2)Lawrence Eugene Doby
When the Veterans’ Committee selected him, I questioned whether that was a nod to his career or to his place in history. I question no longer. A very good career in the major leagues, with a slight boost from factoring in his early years. An edge over Bell thanks to a more significant prime. 30th on SABR Negro League poll. 3rd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
3)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I liked Don F’s theory on the Favorite Teddy Bear. Thing is, Grimes still looks like a really great bear to me. Top 10 most similar pitchers: Red Faber, Red Ruffing, Ted Lyons, Tony Mullane, Gus Weyhing, Dennis Martinez, Eppa Rixey, Sam Jones, Vic Willis, and Tom Glavine. That’s good company. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
5)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Still here. Dang. Medwick continues a run of candidates with huge primes and a rather sharp drop-off. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely, like a certain shortstop I’ll discuss later. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Another tremendous high with decent career filler. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
7)Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
I’m willing to accept the notion that he performed poorly with Boston because they used him so poorly. Factoring in the war years and his high totals in spite of it, I’m content to rank him this high. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.
8) Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
His numbers are not as gaudy as those of Gibson or Santop, but they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
9)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Still sticking with my man Sam, because I recognize how remarkable his career numbers are given his late start, and because he spent so much of his career as the best everyday player on a very bad team. Check the Win Shares, and it’s consistently Walter Johnson and Sam Rice as the Senators’ best. Think if he’d gotten a re-invention like Ruffing. A great one.
10)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.
11)Edd J Roush
He figures to be pretty lonely without Averill to shadow. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
12)Willard Brown
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot. The general lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy does trouble me somewhat.
13) James Barton Vernon – “Mickey”
14)Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
Here’s where my bid for consensus goes kablooey. I have little doubt, based on my review of their numbers, that Vernon is a better first baseman than Beckley. However, I’m not entirely certain that he’s one of the 15 best players on the ballot. And yet, I have considered Beckley to be worthy of a vote from me ever since I began participating in this project. So now I’m questioning the presence of either one on my ballot. I haven’t been able to give this question the attention it deserves, so until I can, I’m going to lean in favor of consistency with my previous balloting. This will probably change in the next couple years, however.
15)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
We’ve elected so many outstanding shortstops, and they don’t make Sewell look that great by comparison. Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
<u>For Test Purposes Only</u>
16)Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
Just keeps yo-yoing on and off my ballot. I’m relying very heavily on Chris Cobb’s projections, which demonstrate a substantial peak. He also does well in James Vail’s standard deviation scores. I’ll be curious to see what the people of Cooperstown think of him.
17)Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Easier to swallow than the mess of pitchers, though.
18)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Used to vote for him quite regularly. Some would call that timelining, but I just think stronger candidates have joined the ballot since his heyday.
19)Carl William Mays
A gentler career arc than that of Ferrell or Lemon, higher highs than Willis. Pitchers really challenge my notion of a great career. Other than the guy I keep trumpeting at the top of my ballot, it’s hard for me to make a strong case for pitchers from the available crop.
20)Robert Granville Lemon
That’s uncanny: I finally get to remove Wes Ferrell from my list, and I have to replace him with the spitting image. Actually, I think Lemon’s a better candidate than Ferrell. I just hate the shortness of the career. I will be curious to see how Dwight Gooden does in our voting. 59th on Maury Allen Top 100.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Clark Calvin Griffith
There’s a voter who likes to refer to the “Hall of the Very Good.” Clark is in that.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangeable with Jimmy Ryan, and I don’t support either one. Similar to Pete Browning, too. He’s good, but it’s not enough. If you guys manage to expand the ballot to 25, he might just make it.
   44. Tiboreau Posted: November 23, 2005 at 09:22 PM (#1744377)
Happy Thanksgiving!

1. cf Larry Doby (nc)—Receives WWII credit as well as recognition as the best Negro Leaguer from 1946 –7, making for a solid career that, combined with his excellent peak, boosts him to the top of my ballot.
2. sp Bob Lemon (3)—Like Ferrell, is underrated by ERA+ due to his ability to hit. Better career value than Wes after WWII credit, while Ferrell has the better peak years.
3. ss Dobie Moore (6, 6, 8)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
4. cf Hugh Duffy (4, 4, 5)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value ain’t too shabby, either.
5. lf Joe Medwick (5, 5, 6)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as among the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
6. sp Clark Griffith (7, 7, 7)—A good balance between peak and career: his peak value is closer to Ferrell & Lemon than it is to Rixey, Ruffing, & Grimes , while his career value isn’t too far off the latter.
7. cf Alejandro Oms (9, 9, 9)—The poor man’s Paul Waner. Only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a real good peak IMO as well as a real good career.
8. rf Enos Slaughter (nc)—Remarkably similar to Alejandro Oms, of all people, as well as Willard Brown:
<u>                g  tpa h+bb ops+  WS  /162  top5   1   2   3    1  2  3</u>
Oms          2178 9056 3557  125 340 25.29   140  147 144 144  31 29 29
Brown        2034 8407 2961  132 328 26.12   132  151 150 147  33 31 31
Slaughter    2380 9084 3401  123 323 21.99   141  156 143 141  37 29 29

(The last 2 groups are their top 3 in ops+ and WS)

All three gentlemen have seasons not taken into account by the numbers—both Brown and Slaughter are deserving of WWII credit (Slaughter 3, Brown 2), while I think that Oms is deserving of a couple years credit for his play with his hometown team (like Cravath, I think Oms would have made the jump before records show, and he did play)

After extra credit, Slaughter has a slight advantage in career value (although Oms is very close). Of the 3, Brown had a better peak, but was the least consistent. And while Slaughter definitely had the best season of the group, regressions understate the peaks of both Oms and Brown.

Of course, there are some questions concerning Brown's patience (the chart above uses the Medwick model). In the end, I chose the order you see hear, but whatever your thoughts on the 3, I hope that Slaughter's eligibility lends toward a second glance at Alejandro Oms and Willard Brown.
9. 2b Cupid Childs (8, 8, 12)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
10. sp Bucky Walters (10, 10, 10)—When at his best he was not only an excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
11. rf Willard Brown (11, 11, 11)—Similar value to Alejandro Oms. His peak is slightly better (3 30+ WS seasons to 1) and he missed two years due to WWII, but Oms had a better, more consistent prime and receives some credit for early play.
12. 2b Joe Gordon (12, 12, 15)— Both Gordon & Doerr’s candidacy is similar to Averill & Sisler’s: strong, but not great, peak with medium career value.
13. sp Jose Mendez (13, 13, 13)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
14. cf Edd Roush (14, 14, 14)— Nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
15. 1b George Sisler (15, 15, ob)—Have been underrating him due to the shortened war seasons during his peak and the greater importance of fielding at his position during the era.
16. sp Dizzy Dean (ob)—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! Win Shares credits Dean with the best peak among eligible pitchers, while only Bob Lemon has a better peak according to WARP.
17. rf Gavy Cravath (ob)—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
18. 2b Bobby Doerr (ob)—See Joe Gordon.
19. rf Buzz Arlett (ob)— Similarly strong peak and poor defensive value to Cravath, he provided definite value to an independent PCL in a time when Branch Rickey and TV had yet to corrupt the minors, when talented ballplayers could still win notoriety for their accomplishments without stepping foot in the majors.
20. sp Eppa Rixey (ob)—Nearly 4500 IP with a 115 ERA+, the best of the long career, low peak pitchers eligible.

Required Disclosures:
21. c Biz Mackey (ob)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang.
22. cf Cool Papa Bell (ob)—An interesting case. While James Riley’s expert poll places Bell among the 1st team Negro League All-Stars, Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections place him squarely among the long career, decent peak candidates, below even the infamous Jake Beckley. Like Willie Wells, I think his peak is doubly understated, and have placed Cool Papa about where I see his MLB comparable, Max Carey.
26. sp Red Ruffing (ob)—Like Rixey, Ruffing had a long and valuable career but not enough of a peak to make my ballot. Questions regarding the support he received playing for the Yankees and the dichotomy between his Boston and New York careers also cloud the issue.
37. cf George Van Haltren (ob)—Not sure if he holds more similiarites to the Slaughter\Oms\Brown group or the Leach\Schang\Beckley group; at the moment I'm leaning toward the latter, but I could be persuaded otherwise. . . .
   45. OCF Posted: November 24, 2005 at 02:27 AM (#1744859)
1965 -

My team just won the World Series - only it wasn't really my team; I wasn't paying that much attention yet. It mattered to the kids on the playground. My father (who will die before the next baseball season is over, but I don't know that) is a Yankee fan. Interesting team, the 1964 Cardinals. Not a young team, not at all. Boyer was great, but at 33 he's got to be looking at the downslope, and soon. And who knew Brock would go .348/.387/.527 after the trade? He can't keep that up; in particular, he strikes out too much to keep that batting average.

Some interesting names pop up on that team. Did you know that Mike Cuellar was there? As a 27-year-old rookie pitching middle relief and spot starts, and not being very impressive doing so. Not a line that jumps up to say "This will be a star some day." And Joe Morgan had a cup of coffee - no, not that Joe Morgan, the other one, the eventual Red Sox manager.

And the World Series - I know Whitey Ford got kicked around in game 1, but why did he never appear again in the series? That sounds like a Stengelesque managerial move, but Casey was gone and Yogi was managing the Yankees.

OK, a ballot:

1. Larry Doby (new) His major league record, alone, puts him in the same neighborhood as Van Haltren for me. He was a centerfielder - at least, Cleveland, which had a whole lot of space out there in their ballpark, was willing to leave him in CF for his whole career. What pushes him from mid-ballot to the top is the recognition that he was, for a couple of years, the best player in the twilight Negro Leagues.
2. Enos Slaughter (new) We don't really need any more corner outfielders, but here he is. As I said for Reese, he's a career candidate for whom part of his career (1943-45) is hypothetical. He doesn't have Medwick's top handful of years, but he's not without a peak.
3. Red Ruffing (1, 2, 3, 2, 1) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
4. Larry Doyle (3, 2, 4, 3, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
5. Joe Medwick (4, 3, 5, 4, 4) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
6. George Van Haltren (5, 4, 6, 5, 5) Where he's been for me for a long time.
7. Eppa Rixey (6, 5, 7, 6, 6) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
8. Ralph Kiner (-, 5, 8, 7, 7) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
9. Joe Sewell (8, 8, 10, 9, 9) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
10. Quincy Trouppe (15, 15, 17, 16, 17) I keep rereading his discussion thread - maybe he was better than Mackey.
11. Biz Mackey (11, 11, 12, 11, 12) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
12. Jose Mendez (12, 13, 13, 12, 13) A peak-value pitching candidate.
13. Dick Redding (13, 13, 14, 13, 14) A career-value pitching candidate.
14. Jake Beckley (10, 10, 11, 10, 10) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
15. Bob Lemon (----, 15) Ferrell, Lemon, and Walters form a pretty tight group. I think Ferrell is probably the best of the group, but not by a huge margin. And Walters is right there, too.

16. Mickey Vernon (new) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
17. Bob Elliott (14, 14, 15, 14, 16) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
18. Willard Brown (16, 16, 18, 17, 17) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
19. Hugh Duffy (17, 17, 19, 18, 18)
20. Bucky Walters (18, 18, 20, 19, 19) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.

21. Phil Rizzuto (--. 21, 20, 20) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
22. Cupid Childs (19, 19, 22, 21, 21) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
23. Joe Gordon (20, 19, 23, 22, 22) Not much to choose from between him and Herman.
24. Tommy Bridges (21, 21, 24, 23, 23) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
25. Cool Papa Bell (22, 22, 25, 24, 24) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
26. Edd Roush (23, 23, 26, 25, 25) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
27. George Sisler (24, 24, 27, 26, 26) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
28. Vern Stephens (-, 25, 28, 27, 27)
29. Bobby Doerr (25, 26, 29, 28, 28)
30. Dobie Moore (26, 27, 30, 29, 29) Short career, high peak.

Dropping off: Bob Johnson. He'll probably be back some day.
   46. andrew siegel Posted: November 24, 2005 at 02:55 PM (#1745404)
I'm in the middle of a major reevaluation that attempts to rebalance eras and positions, to restore a little bit more of my earlier focus on peak/prime, and to be more systematic in accoridng war credit. Some changes are refelected in this ballot; more are to follow.

(1) Dobie Moore (1st)--I think we are now sufficiently comfortable with our numers to conclude that his three or five year peak is a full-level better than anyone else on the board. With proper crediting for Army play, his nineish year career is neither long nor short for a peak/prime candidate. Total package looks an awful lot like Cal McVey.

(2) Larry Doby (new)--At his best, he was as good as Duke Snider or Ken Griffey. He didn't consistently play at that level, but did so often enough to put up a total value slightly north of Earl Averill with a better peak. (I am not giving him any extra credit for it, but I suspect that he would have come a lot closer to achieving his potential if he didn't have to deal with all the race and transition issues, ie., if he had been born white.)

(3) Eppa Rixey (6th)-- With proper war credit, he ranks about sixth in career value among all pitcher born between 1888 and 1938 (behind Grove, Spahn, Paige, Feller, and probably Roberts). His peak isn't as good as any of those guys (or even Grimes or Lyons) but it is not nonexistent. Better than I had thought (and I always liked him).

(4) George Van Haltren (2nd)--Very, very similar in quality and quantity to Enos Slaughter. Slaughter's best season was substantially bettern than GVH's, but GVH had a few more of those 25-30 WS seasons that defined their careers. I could see it either way.

(5) Enos Slaughter (new)--Like he two guys above him, he has so much career value that it would be unprecedent to exclude him (arguable exception alert: Coool Papa Bell) and enough peak/prime that he should not be the new precedent.

(6) Red Ruffing (9 th)—Substantially behind Rixey when you look only at pitching and probably deserves a little further discount for his teams, but has about 120-130 runs over Rixey with the bat; depending on how you value those runs might deserve to rank ahead of Rixey.

(7) Alejandro Oms (7th)—I have always been incredibly impressed by his subjective reports and the stats now match up. True across-the-board talent of the classically underrated type. Somewhere between Sam Crawford and Bernie Williams.

(8) Bob Lemon (5th)—On the same level as guys like Vance, McGinnity, Keefe, and Coveleski; belongs in the HoM but not over-qualified.

(9) Quincy Trouppe (8th)—Next best catcher; couldn’t have timed his career worse.

(10) Hugh Duffy (9th)—Of roughly the same offensive value as GVH and Beckley but with a substantially shorter career. Would down around 30th but for the following three things: (1) Big peak seasons; (2) Star of historically great teams that consistently outperformed their stats; (3) Extraordinary defensive value for his position by most measures (not WARP).

(11) Edd Roush (14th)—He’s GVH with a better peak but much less in-season durability. Gets about a five-spot bump based on the evidence that we may have underestimated the careers of players who stradled the change-over to the live ball or performed in the early live ball era.

(12) George Sisler (12th)—As a peak/prime voter, you have to like his seven-year run where he hit like Keller and Kiner but had substantially more defensive value. If you are a career voter with a high replacement level, he could be down as low as the 40’s.

(13) Jake Beckley (off/16th)—The more I look, the more I see him as within one standard deviation of GVH whatever the uber-metrics say. I think GVH was better b/c/ he was more consistent, he had more versatility and (in my mind) defensive value, and his best seasons were in tougher leagues, but it is awfully close. Beckley’s career length edge is something of an illusion, caused in part by his having a few truly mediocre seasons that add to his career numbers but not really to his career value and partly by the fact that GVH left some of his value (and almost all of his hang-around seasons) in the PCL on the two ends of his career.

(14) Cupid Childs (10th)—Had more offensive value than Gordon and substantially more the Doerr and had longer career in context than them (12 productive years vs. 13 with war credit for Gordon and 14 for Doerr). On the other hand, between their superior defensive skills and the increasing defensive importance of 2B they make up most (if not all) of the gap in the field. For now, he stays ahead of them, but I’m not sure it will last.

(15) Joe Gordon (off/19th)—Once you give war credit, his career length is a neutral. Offense value outstanding (substantially better than Doerr’s). His position rests on defense—his rep was fantastic and stats agree for pre-war portion of career. If his poor defensive numbers for the last portion of his career are accurate (and not attributable to the war), he probably ranks behind Doerr and Sewell. If they are entirely inaccurate (or completely attributable to the war), he might be 7 or 8 spots low. I’m going to split the difference for now, but am sympathetic to arguments that there are some weird park of team effect going on there.

(16) Joe Sewell (17th)—If he had stayed at SS his whole career, would probably rank in the top 10.

(17) Joe Medwick (13th)—I think he’s eventually an HoMer, but there are just so many OF’s with similar credentials.

(18) Bobby Doerr (21st)—See Gordon and Childs comments above.

(19) Bob Ellliot (unranked/about 27th)—Very underrated; may move up again next year.

(20) Charlie Keller (unranked/about 35th)—Biggest beneficiary of my changes to war credit and prime calculations. If you give him war credit, he has a ten-year offensive run better than anything Kiner, Medwick, or Sisler put together over a similar period of years, with more defensive value than the first two.

Apologies to: Bob Johnson, Kiner, Ryan, Willard Brown, Walters, Bresnahan, Frank Chance, and Mendez.

Other new guys are good players but not close, with possible exception of Bobby Avilla, who deserves a much closer look.

Clark Griffith is down around 30-35 due to IP concerns. Mackey and Bell are in the same general vicinity as their bats don't show enough juice.
   47. Rob_Wood Posted: November 24, 2005 at 09:54 PM (#1745672)
1965 ballot:

1. Jake Beckley - very good 1B when it was an important def pos
2. George Van Haltren - overlooked 1890s star CF
3. Enos Slaughter - missed three prime seasons due to WWII
4. Red Ruffing - great pitcher for Yanks
5. Bobby Doerr - he and Gordon are now touching
6. Joe Gordon - he and Doerr are now touching
7. Ralph Kiner - overlooked star of the 1950s
8. Bob Johnson - very good hitter
9. Willard Brown - negro lg cf
10. Tommy Bridges - with wwii and pcl credit
11. Bob Elliott - very good third baseman
12. Joe Medwick - great peak hitter
13. Larry Doby - could be higher, conservative for now
14. Eppa Rixey - i luv long careers
15. Cupid Childs - great 2b of the 1890s
-----
16. George Sisler - good enuf 1st half of career for me
17. Clark Griffith - star pitcher of the 1890s
18. Dobie Moore - negro lg star
19. Joe Sewell - very good shortstop
20. Cool Papa Bell - very good negro league CF

Not voting for group top ten: Bob Lemon (not enuf) and Biz Mackey (not even close).
   48. favre Posted: November 25, 2005 at 05:19 PM (#1746182)
1.Larry Doby
2.Alejandro Oms

Tiboreau compared Oms to Slaughter, but I think Doby is a better comp. They were the same type of players, with about 140 OPS+ and excellent CF defense in their primes. Both had long strings of 25+WS (nine for Oms, eight for Doby), and they had fairly similar career WS (312 for Doby w/ NeL credit; Oms projected at 340). Doby had a higher peak, Oms had a better career. If you have Doby high on your ballot, take another look at Alejandro.

3.Eppa Rixey
4.Jake Beckley
5.Wally Schang

Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, which is impressive for a catcher.

6.Rube Waddell
7.Jose Mendez
8.Dobie Moore

I know Waddell allowed an inordinate amount of unearned runs, that his RSI index isn’t impressive, and that he was very unreliable. But his top four ERA+ seasons are 179, 179, 165, and 153, and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Arguably better than Feller at his peak.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

It’s become pretty clear to me that Moore is the best shortstop available. Not quite the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot three decades ago.

9.Cool Papa Bell
10. Tommy Leach

Bell’s projected OBP is not as high as I would like. OTOH, his projections also give him nearly 3700 hits and God-only-knows how many stolen bases, which means he created a crapload of runs over his career. We presume with his speed that he also prevented a lot of runs with his glove. His contemporaries pretty unanimously thought that he was one of the best players in the game. That’s a lot of weight to counter his OBP. I wonder if he shouldn’t be even higher on my ballot.

Leach actually has more career WS than any major-league position player on the ballot except for Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Looking back over the years, I’m surprised by how many times I’ve been able to write that. Good hitting, great defense at *two* key positions.

11.Joe Gordon
12.Enos Slaughter

Gordon had some very good years with the bat and glove. While I do not project a peak for him during WWII, I agree with those who think he may have missed a couple of great seasons.

I have not found it easy to write the names Anson, Jackson, Cobb, and Slaughter on my ballot. It doesn't help that the first three guys were much better ballplayers than Enos. But with war credit he projects to near 400 WS, and that has to get him a place somewhere.

13.Bob Lemon
14. Ned Williamson
15.Bobby Doerr

Lemon and Doerr are similar to Ferrell and Gordon; their peaks are not as high, so they land a little below those two. Williamson is still the best pure third baseman available over seventy years after he retired. His main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson has a better peak and considerably more defensive value.

16.Biz Mackey
17.George Sisler
18.Roger Bresnahan
19.Ralph Kiner
20.Clark Griffith

Mackey had a better career and peak than Bresnahan, so I’ve placed Biz just ahead, even though Roger had a longer prime. Still, I’m becoming more convinced that Bresnahan belongs in the Hall.

Sisler, Kiner, and Cravath have similar resumes: huge peak seasons with short careers that just keep them just off the ballot for now. Kiner’s seasons of 184, 184, and 173 OPS+ really impress me, but not enough to vote for him yet. Griffith was a mainstay on my ballot for years, but I have decided he doesn’t have the peak or the career of the pitchers in front of him.

21.Gavvy Cravath
22.Joe Medwick

Medwick will not be a horrible pick for the Hall, but he doesn’t have the peak of the guys in front of him, or the kind of career that I like.

23-25: Cupid Childs, Bob Elliott, Larry Doyle
26-30: Dick Redding, Edd Roush, Pete Browning, Mike Tiernan, Bob Johnson
31-35: Vic Willis, George Van Haltren, Burleigh Grimes, Red Ruffing, Willard Brown

I think Rixey is significantly better than Ruffing: he pitched for more innings on worse teams with a better ERA+, and that does not take account the time he missed for WWI. Was the jump in Ruffing’s effectiveness from Boston to New York due at least in part to a better defense?

I am rethinking Van Haltren, now that Reese has been on my ballot; he’s another did-many-things-well type of player. Still, Oms was a better hitter and fielder; Van Haltren was a better pitcher, but 700 innings with a 96 ERA+ just doesn’t impress me much.
   49. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 25, 2005 at 06:11 PM (#1746220)
1 (1)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

2 (2)Bob Lemon--Like Ferrell, only better.

3 (-)Enos Slaughter--Most career value on the board.

4 (4)Red Ruffing--Probably the best pure pitcher available.

5 (5)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

6 (6)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

7 (8)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

8 (9)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

9 (10)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

10 (11)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

11 (12)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

12 (15)Vern Stephens
13 (14)Rube Waddell
14 (13)Ralph Kiner--I keep flip-flopping on Stephens and Kiner. I rarely flip flop at all on Waddell, who has been in my PHOM for a long time, but doesn't get much support in the actual elections because he had a tendency for giving up unearned runs, or something.

15 (-)Burleigh Grimes--I like the peak/career combo, and he keeps popping back up as a name to include towards the bottom of the ballot.

16 Dom Dimaggio
17 Johnny Sain
18 Joe Gordon
19 Urban Shocker
20 Eddie Cicotte

Dropping off: none

Top ten omissions: Sisler is literally #21, and could conceivably re-appear. Mackey has been lapped by better recent catchers. Van Haltren and Griffith are stuck in positional gluts. Rixey lacks the requisite peak.

Doby needs more review, but for now doesn't seem to stack up. Even with additional bonuses, I can't see him climbing above Kiner.
   50. DanG Posted: November 26, 2005 at 05:18 AM (#1746773)
My #1 and #5 were elected. In 1965, Slaughter, Doby and Vernon try to hold off the backlog. In 1966, Ted Williams is no-brainer unanimous, while a back-logger grabs the other spot. The class of 1967 is the weakest since 1938, so expect a backlog bonanza.

1) Enos Slaughter – Equal to Reese. Easily the best on this ballot.

2) Clark Griffith (2,2,3) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Like Leach et al, he doesn’t have that one big Wow! that gets voters excited. Career only seems short due to missing two years after contraction; peak only seems low because the contracted league is harder to dominate. Good hitter, too. A workhorse in his prime, averaging 332 IP from 1895-99 in seasons that were 15% shorter than today. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

3) George Van Haltren (3,4,5) – I’ve been among his five best friends for 30 elections. As the ballot thins out he climbs up again, passing Beckley, Bell and Sisler in recent years. Now in his 57th year eligible. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4) Eppa Rixey (4,5,6) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

5) Red Ruffing (6,7,8) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well. I like guys who play; Pitchers with 300 complete games, 1916-2005:

382 W. Spahn
356 T. Lyons
335 R. Ruffing
314 B. Grimes
305 R. Roberts
303 G. Perry
300 L. Grove

6) Tommy Leach (7,8,9) – Still in danger of Lost Cause status, but held his ground last election. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10—2182 T. Speaker
11—2156 T. Leach
12—2123 W. Keeler
13—2122 J. Sheckard
14—2087 S. Magee

7) George Sisler (8,9,10) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

8) Biz Mackey (9,10,11) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz. This is around my HoM cutoff line.

9) Edd Roush (10,11,12) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he gained ground last election. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

10) Joe Medwick (11,12,13) – Good peak/career combo. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting. Players with more than 550 extra base hits 1933-42:

1—729 J. Medwick
2—707 J. Foxx
3—631 B. Johnson
4—628 H. Greenberg
5—605 M. Ott
6—556 H. Trosky

11) Jimmy Ryan (12,13,14) – The Ryan express stayed on course, but he still has not finished higher than 40th since 1951. From zero ballots in 1957, he now has five solid friends. To those 15 voters who had GVH in their top eleven last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes. Players averaging more than 40 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
5—484 M. Tiernan
6—474 R. Connor
7—467 H. Duffy
8—452 E. McKean

12) Cool Papa Bell (13,14,15) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Could move up.

13) Larry Doby – NeL play adds needed bulk to his career. Weakness of AL knocks him back a few pegs.

14) Roger Bresnahan (14,15,--) – Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

15) Bob Lemon (15,ne,ne) - Right now, I’m not sure whether he’s more like Ferrell or more like Walters. It’s always best to exercise caution with a borderline newbie.

Off Ballot

16) Bobby Doerr – I looked long and hard at Kiner, but he didn’t quite have the peak to make up for his short career. Doerr over Childs. Similar peaks and hitting, but Doerr was a much better glove and had a longer prime. Was last on-ballot in 1961.

17) Jake Beckley – Lurking just off-ballot since his last appearance in 1940.

18) Wally Schang – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar since his last appearance on my ballot, in 1945.

19) Dobie Moore – If there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him.

20) Cupid Childs – I’ve voted for him three times: 1914, 1915 and 1942.
   51. Kelly in SD Posted: November 27, 2005 at 05:09 AM (#1747827)
Someone went a little overboard...

1965 PHOM Inductees: Larry Doby and Bob Lemon and late 1964 Inductee Alejandro Ohms joins PeeWee Reese.

1. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901: The weight of the evidence. Over 300 wins. Everyone pitched a lot in the 19th century... well only Galvin and Keefe had more innings pitched. Compared to his compatriots, he had poor offensive support: Caruthers 111, Clarkson 109, Keefe 107, Radbourn 107, Welch 103, and Galvin 102.
Record against other HoMers: 62 – 38. The others are all around .500 or worse. His ERA+ is hurt because he was unlucky regarding unearned runs behind him. If he had luck similar to the other pitchers on his team it would be 2 or 3 points higher.

2. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906: I give 2+ seasons credit for being blackballed. The credit is given based on the surrounding 6 years. I have him roughly 6th in peak and 1st in prime. Among position players, by win shares, he ranks tied for 4th in 1878, 2nd in 1879, 6th in 1883, 1st in 1884, 3rd in 1885. Now add in 2 missing years in 1881 and 1882. Also, career OPS+ of 149 is tied for 4th among eligibles behind Browning, Keller, and Cravath. His Grey Ink score is 4th among eligibles. If you adjust for season length, he has 9 20+ win share season, 6 over 25, and 4 over 30. And those totals do not include the two missing years.

3. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921: Adjusting for season length, he roughly has the second best peak and prime. Adjusting for season length, 7 years over 20 win shares, 6 over 25, and 5 over 30. Has the best OPS+ among eligibles by 10 points, 162 to Keller’s 152. An All-Star by STATS 8 times and win shares 5 times. Among position players, he is 1st in 1882 in AA, 4th in 1883, 5th in 1884, 1st in 1885, 2nd in 1887, 5th in 1890 Players League. His Grey Ink score is in the top 10 among eligibles.

4. Charlie Keller – PHOM 1957: WWII credit for one season and one partial at his established level. Tied with Pete Browning for second in peak score. Fourth in adjusted prime – Jones, Browning, Duffy. 4 seasons with 30 win shares + 2 adjusted for WWII time. Only Ralph Kiner has 4 seasons over 30 among eligibles. Only Pete Browning has a higher career OPS+ than Keller’s 152. Was an on-base machine, with the 4th highest OBP among eligibles behind McGraw, Childs, and Roy Thomas. Also, hit with tremendous power. His .518 SLG is behind only Kiner, Wilson, Klein, Bi Herman, K Williams, and Berger. Among position players he finished as follows: 1939 – 22 win shares – 14th in AL in rookie year. 1940 – 24 win shares – 9th in AL. 1941 – 32 win shares – 4th in AL. 1942 – 34 win shares – 2nd in AL. 1943 – 36 win shares – 2nd in AL. 1946 – 31 win shares – 4th in AL.

5. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1918: Adjusted for season length, only Browning and Keller have a better peak, and only Browing and Charley Jones have a better prime. 7 years with at least 25 win shares. No other eligible has that. 8 years adjusting for season length which is 2nd only to GVH. 5th in Black Ink behind Cravath, Klein, Medwick, and Kiner. His Grey Ink is top 10. 5 times a win shares All-Star. An A+ outfielder who played less than 50% of his games in center. He was 2nd in 1890 PL with 26 win shares. 1891 AA 3rd with 28. 1892 NL 5th with 29. 1893 NL 1st with 28 (tied). 1894 NL 1st with 33. 1895 NL 11th with 23. 1897 8th with 25. 1898 13th with 25.

6. Bucky Walters – PHOM 1958: Best National League pitcher between Hubbell and Roberts/Spahn. This ranking is after I reduce his WWII efforts. 3 times best pitcher in NL. And he dominated those leagues: Best pitcher in 1939 by 12 win shares, 38 to 26. Best pitcher in 1940 by 4 win shares, 32 to 28. Best pitcher in 1944 by 8 win shares, 32 to 24. He missed by 1 win share in 1941 of leading the league 4 times. Only Feller, Dean, Waddell, and Willis have a better peak. Has 10th highest prime. Only Dean has more Black Ink. Faced tougher average opponents then any real candidate. Only Nap Rucker, Thorton Lee, and Eddie Smith faced tougher.

7. Quincy Troupe – PHOM 1960: Long career catcher at a very high level. An All-star 23 different times. The productive phase of his career lasted longer then Mackey’s. 7 times with over 20 win shares is nothing to sneeze at from a catcher. I do not give credit for the year spent boxing, but I do for the War. The huge number of walks is a big plus for me.

8. Larry Doby – PHOM 1965: Credit for 1946 and 1947. 5th highest per season win shares behind Keller, Chance, Cravath, and Moore. 7th highest 7 year prime behind Jones, Browning, Duffy, Keller, Burns and Van Haltren. Including NeL credit, he has a top 15 career total as well. 6 times win-shares all-star.
Top 20 in position players, league:
1949: Tied for 5th with many with 24. (Williams, Joost, Stephens, Doerr)
1950: 3rd in league with 30. (Rizzuto, Berra)
1951: 3rd in league with 29. (Williams, Berra)
1952: Best in league with 34.
1953: Tied for 4th with 2 with 26. (Rosen, Vernon, Berra)
1954: 4th in league with 33. (Mantle, Berra, Avila)
1955: Tied for 9th with Kuenn with 22. (Mantle, Kaline, Smith, Power, Fox, Berra, McDougald, and Williams)
That’s 6 straight years in the top 5.
   52. Kelly in SD Posted: November 27, 2005 at 05:11 AM (#1747836)
Part 2

9. Alejandro Ohms – PHOM 1964: Big plus for my system is the 8 years of at least 25 win shares. While he doesn’t have the big peak that I like, his prime his fantastic.
2nd highest career batting average in Cuban leagues behind Torriente, .352 to .345. He is 19 points ahead of John Henry Lloyd and 25 points ahead of Willie Wells. Those three were easily elected to the HoM. What about Ohms?
Other highlights: 3 batting and 3 doubles titles.
Career ranks: 5th in runs, 10th in doubles, 8th in triples, 2nd in avg.
In US play, hit roughly .330 for his career.
From post 31 of the Ohms thread, in the 1920s, only Jud Wilson hit for a better average or slugging average. Only Wilson and Charleston hit for more isolated power.
Ohms played against other HoMers and performed as well as they.
I encourage everyone to review his thread.

10. Cupid Childs (PHOM 1932): Gets a slight boost because I am ensuring I have every position represented. Childs was the best second basemen of the 1890s by a wide margin. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year of the decade. Middle infielders did not last long in the 1890s. Childs did. A walking machine. A key member of the great 1890s Clevelend teams.
1890: best among the majors with 31. Even if you reduce his season by 25%, he is the 2nd best in all the majors. McPhee has 21.
1891: second in majors with 21, 2 behind Crooks in the AA. If you reduce 1890, you need to reduce 1891, and I would say Childs is the best in the majors. McPhee has 19.
1892: 3rd best position player in the majors. Best second baseman. 5 win shares more than McPhee.
1893: 8th best position player in the majors with 24. Best second baseman. 3 more win shares than McPhee.
1894: 20 win shares. Tied for best in majors. 3 more than McPhee.
1895: 18 win shares. Best in majors. 2 more than McPhee.
1896: 7th best position player. 27 win shares. Best in majors. 10 more than McPhee.

11. Bob Lemon – PHOM 1965: 7 20 win seasons, 7 years with 20+ win shares, 7 times a win shares All-Star. The seven times a win shares All-Star may not have great meaning, but it is unique. The last pitcher with 7 or more win shares All-Stars was Lefty Grove and the next with 7 or more are Robin Roberts and Warren Spahn. Grove did do it 12 times and Spahn 13 so I am NOT saying they are comparable.
Lemon has 4 seasons of 25+ win shares. Only Willis (5), and Griffith (5) have more among eligibles. Many others have 4 also though.
He was a very good pitcher who didn't get hurt. 9 top tens in IP. 9 top tens in wins. 6 top tens in winning percentage. 6 top tens in ERA. 5 top tens in ERA+.

12. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942: Only Ruffing and Rixey have a higher career win share total. He is tied with Waddell for best non-consecutive peak. He has the highest prime of any eligible pitcher. He ranks lower than other pitchers because I have a higher standard for earlier pitchers than post deadballers. First in NL twice (1899, 1901). Top 10 pitcher in 1902, 1903, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909.

13. Tommy Leach : Gets a boost because I am reevaluating how I structure my ballot. I saw that I had 6 pitchers and 6 outfielders in the top 15. With everyone from Reese down to Medwick separated by very thin amounts, I thought it better to have at least one player from each position. I know Leach split time in centerfield along with third, but I see him as the most qualified 3rd baseman by far. 7 Gold Gloves by win shares. 5 times a win shares All-Star. Instrumental in the Pittsburgh defenses of the first 15 years of the 20th century.

14. Dobie Moore: Slight increase for better positional balance. Similar to Hughie Jennings, who was consistently at the fringes of my ballot. No infielder has such a great peak. I give 3 years credit for Army play. An all-star every year he was healthy.

15. Luke Easter: I give various bits of credit for WWII, NeL play, Industrial League play, and barnstorming. He was a fearsome power hitter who played forever.

16 through 20 took a lot of time. I reviewed the threads/candidacies of my next five outfielders: Willard Brown, George Burns, Joe Medwick, Edd Roush, and Enos Slaughter. Also, Burleigh Grimes, Wilbur Cooper, Biz Mackey, George Sisler, Larry Doyle, Chance, and I rediscovered Ralph Kiner. Part of me wanted to put the first five outfielders in spots 16 to 20 because they are so close in my system, but that would leave 11 outfielders out of 20 which doesn’t seem justifiable. I ended up with 2 outfielders, Grimes, Cooper, and Frank Chance.

16. Burleigh Grimes – PHOM 1961: Not just a slop pitcher. 7 top 10s in K/9. 10 top 10s in IP with 3 firsts. 11 top 10s in wins with 2 firsts. 6 years as win shares All-Star, 7 years with 20 win shares, 4 over 25, 2 over 30. 5 times a STATS all-star. I like him better than Rixey among 1920s pitchers. 3 year peak of 92 win shares is in the top 10 among eligibles, career total of 286 is 4th among eligibles, 7 year prime of 181 is 5th behind 4 pitchers whose primes were in better pitching times.

17. George Burns – PHOM 1938: Like his balance. 4 top 5s in extra-base hits and 6 top 10s. Also, led league in walks 5 times, 2 other top 5s, 2 more top 10s. 8 top 10s in runs created. 3 times best outfielder in league, 1 time second, 2 times 3rd best OF in NL. 8 straight years among top 10 position players in NL including 1 first and 4 times in top 3. And he did this as a lead off hitter.

18. Willard Brown: Dropping from my previous estimation because I reconsidered his dominance of the NAL in light of his competition and the lack of walks. I had to balance the lack of walks with the small base upon which those are based. His power is certainly impressive. Does he remind anyone else of Jeff Francoeur? Maybe Soriano is a valid comp? I am just trying better understand him.
   53. Kelly in SD Posted: November 27, 2005 at 05:15 AM (#1747843)
Part 3

19. Wilbur Cooper: Similar to Grimes, just 700 fewer innings and better defensive support. Had 9 years of 20 win shares. This is unique. The number of pitchers with 9 or more such seasons since he retired are Grove, Spahn, Clemens, Seaver, Maddux, Palmer, Niekro, and Blyleven. But he only had 1 year over 30. A 4 time STATS all-star, 6 times win shares all-star. 12th in non-consecutive 3 yr peak. 8th in consecutive 3-yr peak. 6th in 7yr prime. 7 top 10s in ERA+, 8 top 10s in wins, 8 top 10s in IP.

20. Frank Chance: Benefits from my reconsideration. 6 year run as best first baseman in baseball. His Cubs were the winning-est team of all time based on anything from 1 year to 8 years (or more). It wasn’t just Brown and Sheckard. Great at getting on base. I think people forget he had a OPS+ of 135 while still being in the top 70 in career stolen bases.

Everybody else (and their mom).

Enos Slaughter: In the running for a spot from 12 to 20. What hurt him is the War. I give credit based on a weighted average of the 3 years on either side of the gap. These surrounding years include his biggest years, but also some at a lower level. I am not comfortable with pencilling in peak years between 37 and 29 win shares. Also, he very likely could have been an all-star in some of those three years. I may be being too harsh and am looking for a better way to take account of this.

Joe Medwick: I am very concerned by the dropoff of Medwick’s production, first after 1938, then after 1941. I am concerned that he got to stay and compete against War-diluted talent. I am concerned that he built up his big counting and average numbers in a great hitting park. Does anyone have home-road splits for his Cardinal years other than HRs? I am concerned that he has only 3 years over 24 win shares.

George Van Haltren – PHOM 1939: Lots of year with 25 win shares once you adjust for schedule length. Unfortunately, the 1890s were the best decade for outfielders to put up big numbers and there were too many others who put up bigger numbers for him to make the ballot.

George Sisler: In the consideration set. I would love to see Sisler’s career broken down by home/road splits because I know he got a huge advantage from Sportsman’s Park. Not a big enough prime to cure the not big enough career.

Red Ruffing: The next pitcher on the list. Big years were not big enough. Did not perform well against the better teams when on the Yankees. Performed worse than the non-Ruffing Yankees pitchers against first/second/third place teams. That doesn’t sound like a HoMer to me.

Jake Beckley: Was the best first baseman only 3 times in his career. Almost never the best player on his own team. I don’t care if he was above average for a long time, if all he was was SLIGHTLY above average. Even adjusting for schedule length, he NEVER had a season of 25 win shares.
Between Anson/Connor/Brouthers and Chance, 1895 to 1902, 8 seasons, Beckley was the best first baseman 2 times by either STATS or win shares. He finished behind: Candy LaChance, Dan Brouthers, J Doyle, Fred Tenney, Bill Joyce, Nap Lajoie, Dan McGann, Cartwright, and Joe Kelley in various years. These players were not having big 30 win share seasons. Only 3 times did any of them get 25 win shares and they only got 25 each time.
In these 8 years, he was 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 1st tied, 1st, and 2nd. And this is against a crappy group of first basemen.
Also, if he was the best player on his team, his team sucked. In the years he was 1st or 2nd, his team was over .500 twice, .500 even once, and under .500 7 times. If he was 4th or worse among position players, his team was over .500 in every year.
To me, a HoMer NEEDS to be the best at his position when there are no HoMers playing. A HoMer is among the best players on his team when they are a good team. Beckley was neither.

Eppa Rixey: Cooper and Rixey and Vance and Coveleski and Johnson and Alexander were all better in the teens and twenties. Lack of big years hurts him. Luque and Donohue faced the tougher pitchers on the Reds. I have severe doubts about giving war credit if the following story is true. I can’t find the source, but Rixey joined the war effort in a fit of pique after the Phillies traded Alexander to the Cubs after the 1917 season. If you leave for war because you are angry with management, rather than patriotism or draft, I am not sure about giving any credit. I still do, but it is under exam.

Biz Mackey: Peak and prime was not as high as I thought it would be. Poor second half of his career.

Clark Griffith: Did not have the big years that his contemporaries did. Maybe that is why he had a longer career, but he definitely lacks the big years of Young, Nichols, Rusie, or McGinnity.


Mickey Vernon: Around 100th among eligibles with war credit. Too inconsistent. Peak not high enough.

Hank Sauer: Screwed by drafted out of the Yankees system after the 1939 system by the Reds. The Yankees could have moved him to first base with Gehrig’s unfortunate retirement. Instead he is drafted by a team whose manager is insanely concerned with defense and allows his bat to rot for 5 years.

Murry Dickson: No peak or prime. Had some good years, but with bad teams. Maybe if he stayed with the Cards and there was no War???

Bobby Avila: Just not enough. Was he due any Mexican league credit? He would need a good deal to make the ballot.
   54. Gadfly Posted: November 27, 2005 at 07:25 AM (#1747987)
1965 Ballot (Gadfly)

As always (yadda yadda), I believe that the conversion rates used in the HOM are inaccurate (see Cravath thread) and unfairly downgrade Negro League and Minor League performance which, of course, makes my list top heavy with Negro Leaguers and poor Gavy Cravath.

In addition, I give catchers a 30 percent position bonus, pitchers a gradually increasing position bonus from 1921, and credit for career interruptions that are timeline related (i.e. wars but not injuries). I also upgrade for various other small things like the 1877-78 and 1892-1900 contractions while downgrading early AA, 1884 UA, 1890 AA, 1914-15 FL, among other things.

My ballot relies on Win Shares and tries to weight peak and career equally, basically multiplying the total WS of the player's best 5 years by three and adding this number to the career WS to arrive at a score that looks like an old-fashioned grading system (i.e 900 and above: Grade A Hall of Famer, 800-899: Grade B, etc.) and slightly favors peak.

1. Gavy Cravath (A+)
Greastest slugger of his time, trapped in Minors for his prime, would have hit well over 500 home runs in his career if it had only started in 1922, not 1902. Proper evaluation of his Minor League numbers make it clear that he was a Major League caliber player for 20 years with an astounding peak. Exactly the type of player the Hall of Merit was formed to honor.

2. Willard Brown (A+)
The Brown thread has Willard's career petering out quickly after 1949. Brown was the best hitter in the Negro League from 1947 to 1949 and would have had a career lasting from 1936 to 1955. Another guy who would have easily passed 500 home runs in his career without war and stupidity. Brown also walked much more than he is being given credit for in his thread.

3. Luke Easter (A)
Basically Willie McCovey's bigger stronger brother with his career hidden under layers of racial discrimination, World War II, injuries, and then age discrimination. Easter is the baseball equivalent of an iceberg. If Easter, Brown, and Cravath had all gotten to play their full careers out in the Majors, Easter would have been the one most remembered and it's not even close.

4. Dick Redding (A)
Redding would have won over 300 games in the Major Leagues with well over 200 of them coming from 1910 to 1920.

5. Cool Papa Bell (A)
6. Alejandro Oms (A)
7. Biz Mackey (A-)
All very overqualified and badly underestimated by the conversion rates in use.

8. Charlie Jones(B+)
Jones was clearly a better hitter than Pete Browning or Ralph Kiner, who are both close comps. If he had only played ball from 1871-75, Rippay would have been an easy Grade A Hall of Famer.

9. George Van Haltren (B+)
10. Rube Waddell (B)
11. Hugh Duffy (B)
Three forgotten guys from the turn of the century. Van Haltren is directly comparable to and much better than Jake Beckley; Waddell was great and would have been much greater at virtually any other time; and Hugh Duffy was the Kirby Puckett of the 1890s with a longer career.

12. Enos Slaughter (B)
Slaughter obviously lost some of his peak to WW2; but, even without the peak and simply average credit for WW2, he scores as a solid B Hall of Famer.

13. Jose Mendez (B)
Mendez was, for seven years, one of the three greatest pitchers alive and had a career that lasted 20 years.

14. Quincy Trouppe (B)
Trouppe is basically a much bigger, stronger, better version of Wally Schang and would have walked a 100 times a year in the Major Leagues.

15. Larry Doby (B-)
With some war credit, Larry Doby had enough career to add to his peak and make the bottom of the list. This probably does a disservice to Doby as he would have obviously been much greater without the discrimination. In fact, Enos Slaughter and Doby, this year's virgins, are very similar in the fact that they both have almost surely lost uncredited peak.

Doby also illustrates what I like best about the Hall of Merit. I always learn something new here. John Murphy found a ten year old Doby in the 1930 Census. After a little research, it became apparent that the 10 year old boy listed in the 1930 Census was the real Larry Doby (Lucille Covington, the head of the household, was his aunt).

However, Doby's biographer (Joseph Moore) asserted that he had acquired a certified birth certificate for Doby that listed his date of birth as December 1923. A quick check of the 1920 Census shows that Doby's mother was single and childless and Doby's biography lists Doby's parents as getting married in 1922.

Although the claim of having a certified birth document would seem to end the discussion, I still have doubts. Larry Doby dominated the Negro National League in 1942 after graduating from High School. This seems unlikely for an 18-year-old. There is a slight possibility that Doby was born in 1920, 21, or 22. Although its unlikely, at least now I am aware of it and can research what I thought was a dead issue.

16. Ben Taylor (B-)
17. Edd Roush (B-)
18. Charlie Keller (C+)
19. Joe Gordon (C+)
20. Tony Mullane (C+)

None of the other new eligibles even came close to my top 40. Mickey Vernon was the closest and graded out as a C- while Hank Sauer, the most interesting, would also probably grade out as a C- with all the proper credit. However, this just gets them into the enormous backlog of Grade C Candidates.
   55. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: November 27, 2005 at 02:36 PM (#1748189)
1965 ballot:

1. Red Ruffing: I’ve been wondering for several years if he’ll be doomed by the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams. Obviously not doomed, but it’s touch and go. Career stats aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. A pennant is a pennant? He was an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners. (PHOM 1956)

2. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. By Bill James’s rankings, the 7th best centerfielder so far (including Stearnes in cf, James has him in lf). SWW believes that Negro Leaguers would be astonished by Bell not being in our HOM. I wonder if the HOF Negro League committee will be similarly astonished. (PHOM 1957)

3. Bob Lemon: He doesn’t have the eye-popping seasons that peak voters like, but there aren’t a lot of pitchers who could match his 9 consecutive seasons of sustained excellence. He’s at the top of my “moderate” career-length pitchers (~2500-3000IP) and is more of a workhorse in context than Mays or Ferrell, his 2 closest comps. (PHOM 1964)

4. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

5. Larry Doby: I like Larry better than Ducky and Ducky better than Enos. Centerfielder, good defense, about 3 years of pre-ML credit puts him well over 300 WS. PHOM this year (with teammate Boudreau).

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

7. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (PHOM 1958)

8. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher.

9. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

10. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

11. Bobby Doerr: Like Sewell, 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4.

12. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, career edge over Ferrell, pretty good hitter.

13. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood.

14. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (PHOM 1929)

15. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley after Mackey & Pete Hill. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson).

16-20:

16. Clark Griffith
17. Lefty Gomez
18. Enos Slaughter
19. Rube Waddell
20. Ralph Kiner

Required comments:
Clark Griffith: In my PHOM since '45, now he wanders on & off the ballot as the crowd thins or thickens. 16th this year.
George Van Haltren: I wasn’t that crazy about him in the ‘20s, and the field of candidates is much better and deeper now. Very solid performer, but no suggestion of greatness.

New people:
Interestingly, Slaughter’s #1 comp at bb-ref is Vernon. Vernon’s #3 comp is Slaughter, behind Mark Grace and Bill Buckner. Besides each other, they’ve got 5 people in common: Grace, Jose Cruz Sr., Willie Davis, Keith Hernandez and Al Oliver. Slaughter has the edge in non-commons: Wheat, Julio Franco, Cuyler and Bob Elliott versus Buckner, Kuhel, Garvey and Judge. Slaughter is clearly the better player of the two. Career-wise, they’re supposedly very comparable, but by individual seasons, I don’t think they look that much alike.


PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940), Griffith (1945).

HOM not PHOM: Suttles, Carey, Vance, Beckwith, Averill, Ferrell, Kelley, Sheckard, Jennings, Pike, Pearce, Jackson

PHOM not HOM: Lemon, Welch, Grimes, Griffith, Ruffing, Bresnahan, Mackey, Beckley, Sisler, Sewell, Browning, Duffy, Bell
   56. Chris Cobb Posted: November 27, 2005 at 06:08 PM (#1748300)
1965 Ballot

My #1 and #4 candidates were elected; two newbies land at the top of the preliminary ballot, so there’s little change in my rankings this year.

1. Larry Doby (n/e). Despite not fulfilling his potential(!) in the majors, Doby has an outstanding, sustained prime than places him comfortably above the backlog. I give him MLE credit for 1946-47 and a year of war credit for 1945. Should be an easy, though not unanimous selection this year.
2. Enos Slaughter. (n/e). A career candidate. In the context of his time, Slaughter’s career is really outstanding. Like Van Haltren, to whom he has been compared, he does not have a great peak, but that is partly an effect of the war, and he was very good for a long time. I don’t know if he’ll make it this year or not, but he should go in soon.
3. Clark Griffith (2). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
4. Eppa Rixey (3). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he is now getting closer to election at last. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close. Would help to fill the 1915-25 drought.
5. Alejandro Oms (5). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player. Given the possibility that we are missing a season or two of major-league quality seasons at the beginning of his career, I am comfortable with Oms here. Tiboreau’s comparison of Oms to Slaughter on his ballot was excellent, really clarifying the shape and quality of Oms’s career.
6. Red Ruffing. (6) The last 1930s candidate whom I strongly support for election. Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
7. Biz Mackey (7). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
8. Burleigh Grimes (8). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, with Grimes, Rixey, Roush, and Cravath representing that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 5 ballot spots.
9. Willard Brown (9). Probably the #4 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard, and Monte Irvin. More raw power than Leonard and Irvin, I think (though less, apparently, than the mysterious Luke Easter), but his lack of plate discipline places him behind the more complete hitters. The plate-discipline issues make him very hard to rate.
10. Joe Gordon (10) I think I’ve been underrating infielders a bit. An eventual HoMer, in my view, a bit better than Doerr, who should also be an eventual HoMer.
11.Bobo Newsom (11). My system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1938 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border.
12. Edd Roush (12). Great ballplayer, but lots of time out of the lineup keeps him from being higher.
13. Gavvy Cravath. (13) Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding keeps him from being higher. WARP’s coolness towards him drops him slightly this time as I try to take a more balanced look at outfield candidates.
14. George Sisler (14). Truly outstanding peak, but outside of that seven-year run he was not generally an above-average player.
15.Jose Mendez. (15) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention. New data from Brent gives us a window into CWL league quality during Mendez’s prime: this may help or hurt his case. I hope I’ll have time to study this in the next few “years” in relation to that data.
   57. Chris Cobb Posted: November 27, 2005 at 06:11 PM (#1748301)
The 1965 Experimental Five

16. Dick Redding. (16) Still paired with Mendez, but he won’t follow Mendez back onto the ballot until next year, except in so far as the ballot has extended to meet him.
17. Ralph Kiner. (17) He’s above my all-time in-out line but not on my ballot yet. Just ahead of Doerr both among 1940s stars and in my all-time list.
18. Bob Lemon (19). A candidate about whom I would urge the electorate to exercise a bit of caution. Because he’s the first 1950s pitcher to become eligible, we don’t have a good sense yet of how 1950s pitchers stack up against pitchers from other eras or position players from their own eras, so it’s easy for him to be either over- or under-rated. I think it’s clear that underrating isn’t likely to have been a problem here, but I’m not convinced that he hasn’t been overrated. I’d like to see head-to-head comparisons of him to Newcombe, Ford, Wynn, and Pierce before I fully get on board with his candidacy. (Obviously, he’s no Roberts or Spahn, but he doesn’t need to be to be a HoMer.) I doubt we should be taking more than six 1950s pitchers, and I’d like to be sure Lemon is one of the six. That said, Lemon appears a solid candidate based on his prime. He doesn’t have any monster years, but he was among the top pitchers in the league for a full decade.
19. Bobby Doerr (18). Brilliant fielder; I’m liking him more now that I see he really was one of the top players of the 1940s. Slight recalibration of post-WWII pitching peaks moves Lemon ahead of him this year, but the two are still very very close in value.
20. Buzz Arlett. (20) The closest I’ve come yet to voting for Mr. Arlett.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Joe Medwick. See #25 below
Cool Papa Bell. See #26 below
George Van Haltren. See #22 below
Jake Beckley. See #49 below

1965 Off-Off Ballot

21. Rube Waddell (21). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, Waddell seems well ahead of Joss and Dean.
22. George Van Haltren (22). Right on the all-time in/out line for me. If we get deep into the backlog in the next decade, he’ll get back onto my ballot. Why is there so much distance between him and similar player Enos Slaughter? Slaughter has a bit more peak value and places higher relative to his contemporaries. I have Slaughter as about the 10th best player of the 1940s, while VH is about the 15th best player of the 1890s. That makes Slaughter a clear HoMer in the context of his time, while VH is on the borderline for his.
23. Tommy Leach (23). Ditto.
24. Bucky Walters. (24) His peak is overrated by some, but he was an outstanding pitcher during his prime. Wouldn’t object to his eventual election.
25. Joe Medwick. (25). Still unenthusiastic about his candidacy. He isn’t obviously unqualified, but his main distinguishing feature is his peak according to win shares, and I think it’s overrated. I’d take Oms, Brown, Roush, Cravath, Arlett, Van Haltren, and Leach first. Sadly, many of those more deserving players may never be elected. Time will tell.
26. Cool Papa Bell (26). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville. Note to self: Bell really needs a new study now that a lot more MxL data is available.
27. Bill Byrd (27). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher.
28. Rabbit Maranville. (28) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
29. Mickey Welch. (29) Moved him up a bit in the backlog this year as I realized he’d slipped below several players whose contextual value was less than Smiling Mickey’s. May still have him 5-8 spots too low, but for now that distinction isn’t significant. In ten years, I’ll have to think more carefully about him vs. Walters and Waddell.
30. Leroy Matlock (30). A very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
31. Larry Doyle (31). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
32. Spotswood Poles (32). Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look, though additional perspective offered by Brent’s CWL data doesn’t help his case.
33. Bob Elliott. (33) Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. The slope of the rankings is close to flat once one passes 25, so a small change in my view of Elliott could jump him up a long way. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I can’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now.
34. Carl Mays. (34) Wes Ferrell lite.
35. Urban Shocker. (35) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
36. Bus Clarkson . (36) Perhaps the best player to get no support from the experts in _Cool Papas and Double Duties_. My ranking system using Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs places Clarkson virtually even with Bobby Doerr, but I think the good doctor’s MLEs are a little bit higher than what my own would be, so until I’ve a chance to run my own numbers for Clarkson, I’m going to place him conservatively at the rear of the borderline infielder group for the 1940s: Gordon, Doerr, Elliott, and Clarkson. These four are all very close in value, but when they are shuffled in with 70 years worth of borderline candidates, they end up separated by 25 slots top-to-bottom.
37. Bob Johnson (37). Career value is better than Medwick’s, I think, but even WARP1 agrees that his peak and prime trail that of his similar contemporaries Medwick and Averill. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but he’s close.
38. Hugh Duffy. (38) Another guy whom I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now nearly down to 40 in the rankings. Youch!
39. Jimmy Ryan (39) Nice peak, but in a weak league, and for much of his long career his numbers are not distinguished.
40. Roger Bresnahan (40) The first of the reserve catcher trio. He, Schang, and Trouppe were all very similar in value: if I change my mind about comparing catchers to players at other positions, they are poised to rise.
41. Wally Schang (41)
42. Quincy Trouppe (42).

43-47. Cupid Childs, George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller, Charley Jones
48-52. Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley, Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell, Dick Lundy
53-57. Mel Harder, Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper, Johnny Pesky
58-62. Lave Cross, Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Mickey Vernon
63-67. Bobby Veach, Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson
68-72. Phil Rizzuto, Tommy Bond, Vern Stephens, Jim McCormick, George J. Burns
73-77. Jack Fournier, Bruce Petway, Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams
78-82. Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning, Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance
83-89. Leon Day, Tony Mullane, Hilton Smith, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger

Other new arrivals worthy of note:

Mickey Vernon is a poor man’s Jake Beckley. Long career, good hitter, nothing special defensively at the least important defensive position. Similar career shape to Beckley, but less value in practically every register. I prefer him to Sam Rice, though.

Hank Sauer. A big bopper who had much less of a major-league career than he deserved, but who wasn’t a _great_ hitter in the minors long enough to have a serious case.

Bobby Avila. I’m pretty sure he’s above the Berger line but well off the ballot, most likely in Stephens/Rizzuto territory, but I haven’t finished studying him yet, so I don’t have an exact placement for him. I’ll get him placed for 1966 directly after I finish studying Don Newcombe.

From 1964:

Virgil Trucks A very good pitcher, but he falls below the Berger line and so does not make it into my listed rankings. I see him as similar to but slightly better than Dutch Leonard. Both were highly effective when they pitched and pitched for a considerable time, but their in-season durability was not outstanding, so their peaks are not exceptional. Both have very similar career values to Bob Lemon, for example, but both required more innings to accumulate that value, and they spread it over about 15 seasons where Lemon concentrated it into about 10 and added hitting value on top.

Sal Maglie . An interesting career and a fine pitcher, but he falls farther below the Berger line than Trucks.
   58. Howie Menckel Posted: November 27, 2005 at 10:34 PM (#1748671)
Gadfly,
How would you compare Negro League play to major league play from 1901-1950?
From your votes, it would almost seem you think the former was significantly better.
Or do you only think that the best of the NeL was better than the majors?

I'm all for the creative ballot, but what is the ultimate conclusion you are drawing?
   59. Al Peterson Posted: November 28, 2005 at 12:10 AM (#1748799)
1965 ballot. Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving or at least a tolerable one.

1. Joe Medwick (1). Better player than a person.

2. Clark Griffith (2). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

3. Dick Redding (3). CANNONBALL!!! Pitched in multiple leagues, each time having success. He’s the NeL pitcher I think we’re missing.

4. Jimmy Ryan (4). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

5. Bobby Doerr (6). Middle IF who is slightly above many others in the running for HOM. Billy Herman minus a little.

6. Bob Johnson (5). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

7. Bob Lemon (7). With him I bow to the mighty Wins category – 8 out of 9 years top 3 in the American League. Egads!

8. Enos Slaughter (-).
Had to extrapolate peak during war so I won’t do too much of that. Was the best RF the big leagues had to offer for a time.

9. Red Ruffing (8). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey plus a little bit sorta guy.

10. Larry Doby (-). This is with a couple of years allowance for pre-ML play. Might be higher but I doubt it.

11. Hugh Duffy (9). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. Duffy has showed up occasionally before so I’m not upset to see him mentioned again.

12. Tommy Leach (10). Two positions make him hard to rate. Fielded well at both, hit with enough authority to be considered valuable.

13. Biz Mackey (11). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

14. Rube Waddell (12). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.

15. Cool Papa Bell (14). Speed game particularly suited for the Negro Leagues. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

Extra 5 for experimental 20 man ballot:

16. Frank Chance (15). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. All folks down this way on the ballot have flaws so the playing time issue is lessened at least for a ballot mention.

17. Edd Roush (13). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

18. Dobie Moore (16). Probably the SS from the 20’s if I had to choose one. Jennings type of candidate if the stories are correct.

19. Eppa Rixey (17). Lost a little time to war but still a fine career candidate.

20. George Van Haltren (18). Well, yeah, um… I got nothing. Good player but that’s really not shocking news.

21-25:Poles, Childs, Mullane, Easter, Berger
26-30:Byrd, Kiner, Browning, F Jones, Mendez
31-35:Bridges, Sewell, Cicotte, Lundy, Keller
36-40:McGraw, Sisler, Willard Brown, Trout, Veach
41-45:D. Leonard, Beckley, Shocker, Gomez, Ben Taylor
46-50:Willis, Trouppe, Mays, Gordon, Bob Elliott

Top Returnees: Beckley (#42) and Sisler (#36) – one peak, one career but neither have the goods for the ballot. I’ll have to reexamine these guys to make sure there aren’t some items I’m missing from their resume.

New guys: Vernon had the roller coaster career with the troughs to prove it. Comparisons to Beckley probably being kind to the old Senator.
   60. dan b Posted: November 28, 2005 at 12:47 AM (#1748823)
1.Doby Better than I thought, easy pick.
2.Medwick PHoM 1956. Jennings like peak. Compared with pool of HoM hitters who appeared in 20th century ML, scores above the WS median over 10 consecutive seasons.
3.Slaughter PHoM 1965. War credit makes him a career value pick.
4.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
5.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s still underrepresented.
6.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented, Duffy’s 8 best seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and WS per 162 would put him at the median when compared with current HoMers. Van Haltren doesn’t fare well in this comparison.
7.Kiner Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles.
8.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. IMO, Koufax is a no-brainer. When comparing all the eligible high peak pitchers on this ballot to Sandy’s overpowering dominance from 1961-1966, Rube’s performance from 1902-1908 comes closest.
9.Brown, Willard Strong mle’s.
10.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
11.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
12.Cravath Would be in my PHoM had the mle’s been available back in the early 30’s.
13.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
14.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
15.Walters Preferring his peak to Ruffing’s career.
16.Ruffing
17.Lemon
18.Keller 2nd look moves him close to making my ballot.
19.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
20.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” He may have overlooked a few.

21-25 - W. Cooper, C. Mays, G. Burns, Oms, Chance

Sisler’s strongest argument by my analysis is a 5 consecutive year peak which isn’t as good as Kiner, Duffy, Keller or Berger to name a few. I’d rather enshrine Chance if we need a 1B to fill the ABC to Gehrig gap.

Van Haltren – Duffy would be a much better choice. Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really make Van Haltren this much better than Jimmy Ryan?

Beckley – WS show that a team led by Beckley would be abysmal. Even when peak is stretched to 10 consecutive seasons, would easily be the weakest in the HoM. Using 3 and 5-year peaks, Beckley is within a standard deviation of only the 3 or 4 weakest HoMers. I strongly favor Frank Chance’s short term greatness.
   61. Jeff M Posted: November 28, 2005 at 01:37 AM (#1748872)
1965 Ballot

1. Mackey, Biz –My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

2. Slaughter, Enos – Long productive career, and consistently was a large part of pennant and World Series winners.

3. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 25.5 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

4. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

5. Doby, Larry – I actually expected him to be higher, but he wasn’t what you would call “dominant.” Still, he was obviously very good, and at an important position. I think he was better than Duffy, by a little bit.

6. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

7. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

8. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

9. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

10. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

11. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

12. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

13. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

14. Lemon, Bob – Not a lot different than Wes Ferrell, but Ferrell does a little better in my adjusted WARP and WS, as well as in Linear Weights, taking into account run support. The rankings from #5 down are very tight, so even the slight difference puts him four spots lower than Ferrell.

15. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

16. Gordon, Joe

17. Ryan, Jimmy

18. Griffith, Clark

19. Dean, Dizzy

20. Welch, Mickey

Required Disclosure(s):

Ruffing, Red – Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a small boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Rixey, Eppa – No question in my mind he is better than Ruffing. However, he never really had flashes of brilliance, and for me that is a pre-requisite to the HoM.

Van Haltren, George – He’s #33 in my system.
   62. Trevor P. Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:07 AM (#1749114)
1) George Van Haltren(1). Consolidated league. Long career. OPS+ above 120, tilting slightly in the OBP direction. Played CF. Pitched. Could steal a base. Top-ten in triples seven times. Lots of little stuff that, put together, makes a HOMer.
2) Eppa Rixey (2). Of eligible pitchers, only Mickey Welch has more innings pitched and an ERA+ over 110. And don't forget about WW1 credit - with it, he probably breaks 100 WARP1.
3) Enos Slaughter (new). Slaughter, Van Haltren, and Rixey are all extremely close; Slaughter reminds me of a low-grade version of Paul Waner.
4) Jake Beckley (3). 125 OPS+ in 10,000 AB when adjusted to a 154-game schedule. Was mentally forgetting that he, like GVH, played in the one-league 1890s.
5)Red Ruffing (4). Based on some WARP calculations I did on eligible pitchers who retired in the last twenty or so years, Ruffing actually fell behind Bob Lemon when I weighted for prime and peak. So I may be adjusting him downwards next year, or moving Lemon up even further.
6) Quincy Trouppe (6). Have decided he’s the best available catcher. Higher estimated in-season innings than Schang, which isn’t a big thing for a career voter like myself, but it serves to separate the two.
7) Larry Doby (new). Seems very similar to Earl Averill, of whom I was a fan.
8) Cannonball Dick Redding (9). See below.
9) Bob Lemon (13). I was highly underestimating Lemon’s prime, it seems. When I weight his 9-year prime at 45% of his overall value, he actually comes out ahead of Ruffing. As I’m not sure I agree with that, I’ve boosted him four spots for now. And Redding benefits from those re-evaluations as well, as I’ve always seen the two as quite similar.
10) Cupid Childs (7). Was best available 2B before Robinson debuted on ballot. Played in an era that was much more perilous for middle IF, and posted similar stats to Doerr, Gordon, et al.
11) Bob Elliott (8). Like Medwick/Johnson, the Hack/Elliott comparison is one more reason I hesitate to use win shares exclusively. Offensively they look about equal, with Elliott having a stronger peak. Defensively, Elliott's OF play (although not terrible by any account I've read) means he's slotting in at #8 whereas Hack made it to #2 on my ballot.
12)Edd Roush (10). Even playing in a weak league, he posted some strong stats, and being a career voter I think I care less about whether he always played full seasons as long as the overall numbers are there.
13)Wally Schang (11). Dropped down in favor of Trouppe. Still think we’re placing too much importance on his in-season stats and not looking at the overall picture. He was a catcher, after all!
14) Alejandro Oms (12). OPS+ is better than GVH, though he played more corner outfield and against lesser opponents.
15) Jimmy Ryan (15). Garnered more votes than GVH, once upon a time.

16) George Sisler. Always on the cusp. Had quite a career, though he’s often thought of as a prime/peak candidate.
17) Clark Griffith. My post-ballot pitcher rankings are often in flux, but Griffith’s always up there.
18) Biz Mackey. Methuselah behind the plate.
19) Bucky Walters. Lemon-lite (sounds like a generic soda brand!), though I’m amazed how close he compares to Dizzy Trout.
20) Joe Medwick. I prefer Slaughter’s long career if we’re going to talk about corner outfielders, but Medwick was no slouch in his prime.
   63. Esteban Rivera Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:08 AM (#1749152)
1965 Ballot:

1. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

2. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Enos Slaughter - Has a fine career and given war credit lands here on my ballot.

5. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

6. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

7. Larry Doby - His big years and some NL credit place him in the middle of my ballot.

8. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

9. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

10. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

11. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

12. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

13. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

14. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

15. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

16. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me

17. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

18. Frank Chance - The opposite of Beckley. Was the standard for excellence at his position but injuries did him in. Tragic that it was the "competitive" nature of his opposition that caused him part of his career and shortened his life.

19. Jose Mendez - Peak pitching candidate similar to Wadell. However, a little bit unsure on how much to credit him for his bookend years and ends up here.

20. Bob Lemon - Impressive run as on of the top pitchers in his league but see some contemporaries as better. However, he is a worthy candidate.


Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

George Van Haltren - Never the best in his time.
   64. Andrew M Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:16 AM (#1749163)
1965 Ballot

1. (2) Eppa Rixey. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, Rixey has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t outstanding, but his top ERA+ seasons run 144, 143, 142, 139, 136, 129, 124, which is pretty good for a guy who also pitched almost 4500 innings. And though he doesn’t get any extra credit for this, he was probably the best pitcher to ever pitch for an ACC school (though Kevin Brown may also have an argument here).

2. (3) Dobie Moore. At his best, I think there is sufficient evidence that Moore was better than any position player on this ballot, and with a few years' credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

3. (new) Larry Doby. With NeL credit moves up to about where I had Goose Goslin; that is, not in the top tier of OFs, but just below. My ranking system, such as it is, shows him to be decidedly better than Slaughter. Random thought that struck me several times while looking at adjusted win shares for Doby and Slaughter: Do I need to take another look at Jimmy Ryan?

4. (4) Geo. Van Haltren. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

5. (new) Enos Slaughter. See Van Haltren comment, but subtract the line about pitching.

6. (5) Larry Doyle. His career OPS+ (126) is outstanding for a middle infielder. I favor him slightly over Childs because he played a little longer and over Gordon (and Doerr) because I think his peak was higher—though it’s close if you factor in some type of league discount (which, for various reasons, I don’t do much of.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems about right to me from everything I’ve read about him.

7. (6) Joe Medwick. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is a significant peak-level of performance, and he has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that. Didn’t do much past the age of 30, but still ended up with over 8000 career plate appearances.

8. (7) Clark Griffith. Still my favorite of the medium length career pitchers. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.86 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His career isn’t long, but there is an argument that he should get some credit for pitching in the PCL in 1892 and 1893. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

9. (8) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher to me, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

10. (9) Edd Roush. There are some odd stories about him, but Roush was among the best players in the NL for a decade, which included a couple of MVP type seasons and a year in which he was arguably the best player on a team that won a World Series.

11. (10) George Sisler. I don’t give him much credit for his post-1922 career, but he was an outstanding player for almost a decade before that. To my mind the argument for him is about the same as that as for Medwick and Roush.

12. (11) Rube Waddell. Downgraded for general unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76. Relatively short career, but a he did pitch almost 3,000 innings.

13. (12) Cool Papa Bell. Too much career to ignore. It is hard for me not to think he contributed many positive things (speed, fielding, lots of singles) to his teams that may not be reflected in his modest OPS+.

14. (13) Tommy Bridges. A poor hitter and not as much of a workhorse—though he did finish in the top 10 in innings 5 times—but I’ll live with that from a guy with six 140 ERA+ seasons in the 1930s and 40s American League.

15. (14) George J. Burns. Someone has to be his best friend. In many ways I like him better than his contemporary Edd Roush. Roush may have better rate stats, but Burns rarely missed a game and averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Could get on base, run, field, and his teams won a lot of games.

Next 5
16. Alejandro Oms
17. Joe Gordon
18. Hugh Duffy
19. Red Ruffing
20. Quincy Trouppe

Required disclosures:

Bob Lemon. Currently at #23 on my ballot. A very good pitcher, but his numbers don’t seem compelling enough to place him any higher.

Biz Mackey. I don’t see putting him ahead of Trouppe, though it’s close. He’s around #30 on my ballot.
   65. DavidFoss Posted: November 28, 2005 at 08:54 AM (#1749365)
I hope everyone had a happy thanksgiving!

The Yankees win yet another pennant thanks to a timely 11-game winning streak in September. The Cards steal a pennant from the collapsing Phillies and then win Series in seven.

Quck ballot this week as I just got back into town.

1965 Ballot

1. Clark Griffith (1) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
2. Larry Doyle (2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
3. Cupid Childs (3) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
4. Biz Mackey (4) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
5. Larry Doby (ne) -- Placing here his first week. Like Averill before him, he is getting a boost over the OF glut by being a CF-er as opposed to a corner. Two years of MLE's flesh out his numbers quite nicely
6. John McGraw (5) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
7. Dick Redding (6) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
8. Ralph Kiner (9) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good. Starting him just above Cravath.
9. Gavvy Cravath (10) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
10. Joe Gordon (11) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
11. Charley Jones (12) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
12. George Sisler (13) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
13. Roger Bresnahan (14) -- Good discussion about him of late. Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
14. Joe Sewell (15) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
15. Bob Johnson (ne) -- High OBP slugger stuck on the post-fire-sale Connie Mack clubs. WS numbers are depressed by his teams constant underperforming of Pythag.

16-20. Medwick, Ruffing, Lemon, BElliott, Doerr,
21-25. Rixey, Rosen, Chance, Lombardi, Beckley,
26-30. WBrown, Browning, ESlaughter, Leach, Welch
31-35. Moore, Waddell, Rizzuto, VStephens, Roush
   66. Ken Fischer Posted: November 28, 2005 at 02:40 PM (#1749543)
1965 Ballot

1-Larry Doby 268 WS
Looking at the rest of the field it’s easy for me make Larry number 1. When you combine his Negro League days with the MLB years he stands out on the ballot.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

3-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

5-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

6-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

7-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

8-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

9-Enos Slaughter 323 WS
I consider Country a underrated player. He should’ve come back for spring training in 1960 and hung around until they went from 28 to 25 players on May 15. That way he could’ve been a 4 decade guy.

10-Red Ruffing 322 WS
Several 20-win seasons in the 30s is impressive.

11-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

12-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

13-Joe Medwick 312 WS
I decided there had to be room for the last NL triple crown winner in my top 15.

14-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

15-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

16-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.

17-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

18-Bob Lemon 232 WS
He’s probably underrated by HOM voters. I’ll need to look at Lemon some more next time around.

19-Ralph Kiner 242 WS
Every time I see him on TV or hear him on radio I want to shoot the box. But he deserves to be in the top 20.

20-Eppa Rixey 315 WS
Rixey matches up well with Grimes & Faber. He had a long and interesting career. He is known for his time with the Reds but made it into the Series only once with the Phils early in his career.


George Sisler is #49 and Griffith #41. I agree with James about Sisler…OVERRATED…had 4 or 5 killer years but his batting average is the only thing that sticks out over his entire career. Griffith ranks about tenth on my list of pitchers. There’s too many guys still on the board I’d rather have on the mound for me…Ruffing, Redding, Lemon, Rixey, Grimes, Day, Mendez, Mays to name a few.
   67. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 28, 2005 at 03:18 PM (#1749576)
Sorry for another hastily constructed ballot; I haven't been online in several days, and I want to get this in before the deadline.

1. Jose Mendez: Great big peak.
2. Leroy Matlock: Peak/prime candidate in the Walters, Lemon, Ferrell mode.
3. Bucky Walters: The NL's answer to Wes Ferrell.
4. Quincy Trouppe: Best unelected catcher available. Hosed by the new NgL committee.
5. Bob Lemon: Consistenly great performer in the late 1940s and 1950s.
6. Charley Jones: Big bat. Even without blacklist credit, he's on my ballot.
7. Roger Bresnahan: Second-best catcher available. It's all about the peak, which is excellent for a catcher, if not for a center fielder..
8. Hugh Duffy: Excellent peak/prime candidate. Best CF available.
9. Larry Doby: Excellent peak/prime guy. Gets several years of NL/war credit. He's just a shade behind Duffy.
10. Cupid Childs: High-octane 2B of the 1890s.
11. Joe Medwick: Still clattering around the bottom of my ballot.
12. Dobie Moore: High-octane SS of the 1920s, with creadit for the Wreckers years.
13. Willard Brown: He could hit, he could run. But he could not walk.
14. Biz Mackey: Another excellent catcher candidate, this time in the career mode.
15. Enos Slaughter: Prime/career candidate. War credit helps him get on board.

16. Wilbur Cooper: Overlooked hurler with a very nice peak/prime combo.
17. Red Ruffing: It's all about the bulk.
18. Eppa Rixey: Ditto.
19. George Sisler: Sweet peak before he becae The Man Who Saw Everything Twice.
20. Pete Browning: Dude could hit.

NEW GUYS
Vernon: Not enough career for a guy with no peak.
Avila: MLEs bring him up near the Joe Gordon's of the world. But that's not close enough for me.
Dickson: Rhymes with Nixon, which means I can't vote for him---even if he's got a secret plan to get us out of the third inning. (Just wait til we get to Kessinger/Kissinger and I break out the shuttle diplomacy jokes!)
Sauer: Not enough peak or career, nor enough info about his being kept in the MiLs too long.
   68. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 28, 2005 at 03:31 PM (#1749583)
Jim Sp Posted: November 16, 2005 at 02:24 PM (#1734293)

Doby #1. Slaughter #7. Both go into PHoM. Avila the wild card, waiting for more info.

1)Doby--Better than I thought.
2)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
3)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
5)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
6)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
7)Slaughter--Gets quite a bit of war credit. PHoM in 1965.
8)Medwick-- PHoM in 1960.
9)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
10)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
11)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
12)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
13)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
14)Rizzuto--Lots of war credit.
15)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.

Ruffing#21.
Bob Lemon #55, ERA+ not very impressive, and played for good teams.
Rixey #16, PHoM in 1939.
Griffith In my PHoM since 1912 but off the ballot at #30.
Van Haltren--#74, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Sisler--#81, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
   69. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 28, 2005 at 03:37 PM (#1749590)
40 ballots have been tabulated so far. Still missing ballots from: Thane of Bagarath, Devin McCullen, Patrick W, Michael Bass, Brad G, Max Parkinson, jimd, and the Commish.
   70. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:59 PM (#1749707)
I'm early today. Some re-evaluation for 3B.

1. Enos Slaughter RF (n/e) - I love the long career, very good players. Slaughter would probably not have gotten to 3000 hits without the war, but he likely would have gotten to 2900. It's very hard for me to say that a guy who was top 3 in the MVP vote 3 times, and missed 3 prime years for the war (around which he finished 2nd and 3rd in the MVP vote) didn't have much of a peak. A very easy #1 for me this week.

2. Red Ruffing SP (1) - Not much of a peak, but with war credit he is 3rd among pitchers we've seen in translated IP, meaning he pitched forever. With war credit I have him as one of just 5 pitchers we've seen with 300 translated wins (he hit 300 exactly with my war credit).

3. Eppa Rixey SP (3) - Like Ruffing, a Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Niekro HoMer. Very similar Ruffing. Low peak for pitchers on this list, but so much career value.

4. Jake Beckley 1B (4) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

5. Larry Doby CF (n/e) - Don't see anyway to rank him below Kiner. Much better than a guy like Averill in my opinion. Would have been in the majors no later than 1945 if not for his race, meaning he lost at least 3 years to war/race.

6. Gavy Cravath RF (5) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

7. Luke Easter 1B (6) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.

8. Ralph Kiner LF (8) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.

9. Charley Jones LF (9) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?

10. Bob Lemon SP (11) - Impressive peak - note, Prospectus recalibrated their numbers again, so if you are comparing Lemon to old numbers you've input into a spreadsheet or something, you need to update everyone else's numbers too. The new numbers are making all pitchers look worse from what I've observed.

11. Bucky Walters SP (23) - I was underrating him. I took a look at his RSI page - back when it existed, and he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter (for a pitcher) too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a close call. I have him a hair behind Lemon right now.

12. Phil Rizzuto SS (12) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP, great defensive SS and hurt by his park enormously.

13. Clark Griffith SP (13) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity or Three-Finger Brown from Griffith?

14. Joe Medwick LF (14) - Looking at Kiner made me realize I had Medwick too low.

15. George Van Haltren CF (15) - He could rank anywhere from 1 to 30, very tough to evaluate.

Honorable Mention

16. Virgil Trucks SP (7) - Hidden gem here, I didn't even notice it until I threw his numbers in my spreadsheet. I give him two full years of war credit for 1944-45, at an average of his 1942-43-46 level (after adjusting 1943 down a smidge for the war). He had some peak (I have him between Ruffing and Plank on my 'peak' score, would have won the 1953 AL Cy Young if it existed) and there's a lot of career value here. I overrated him just a little last time, Lemon and Walters have significantly higher peak with similar career value.
17. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (16) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.
18. Vern Stephens SS (17) - I love shortstop that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Clearly better than Doerr IMO.
19. Dutch Leonard SP (18) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set. Bumping him further this week.
20. Dobie Moore SS (49) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit. But I've been convinced that he played enough (the level of play was never in quesiton) that I should move him way up compared with where I had him. This is similar to where I've put Hughie Jennings in the past.
21. Bill Monroe 2B (19) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
22. Ernie Lombardi C (20) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
23. Biz Mackey C (21) - After further review he appears to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.
24. Cool Papa Bell CF (22) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?
25. Jimmy Ryan OF (24) - Getting bumped again - could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
26. Joe Gordon 2B (25) - Clearly above the rest of the 2B pack.
27. Bobby Doerr 2B (26) - Too close to call w/Gordon right now.
28. Wally Schang C (27) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.
29. George Sisler 1B (28) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
30. Bob Elliott 3B (32) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).
31. Dizzy Trout SP (29) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Moves up more with my pitcher re-evaluation.
32. Tommy Bridges SP (30) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. He'd slipped off my radar too.
33. Quincy Trouppe C (31) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
34. Joe Sewell SS/3B (38) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Good, but not great, peak isn't enough to overcome his short career.
35. Urban Shocker SP (33) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
36. Burleigh Grimes SP (34) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.
37. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (35) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
38. Bob Johnson LF (36) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.
39. Dom DiMaggio CF (37) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
40. Ed Williamson 3B (41) - Still on the board after 60+ years.
41. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (39) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
42. Willard Brown LF (40) - Tough to peg after considering his incredibly low walk rates.
43. Dick Redding SP (42) - Can't see him as better than Grimes, but he's back on the board.
44. Rube Waddell SP (43) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.
45. Walker Cooper C (44) - Great hitter for a catcher, just a smidge below Bresnahan and Schang.
46. Mike Griffin CF (45) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
47. Hugh Duffy OF (46) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan.
48. Edd Roush CF (47) - Weak league hurts him.
49. Ben Taylor 1B (48) - Not that far off Beckley, shows how tight the ballot is.
50. Pie Traynor 3B (--) - Back on the board. I think we are all seriously underrating 3B defense from the mid-30s back. Could move significantly higher once I get a better handle on this.
51. Mel Harder SP (50) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
52. Vic Willis SP (51) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.
53. Bobo Newsom SP (52) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
54. Dick Lundy SS (53) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
55. Bobby Avila 2B (n/e) - Gives him some credit for pre-major league play. Had a couple of really big years in the early 1950s.
56. John McGraw 3B (60) - More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
57. Alejandro Oms OF (54) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
58. George Scales SS (55) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?
59. Lave Cross 3B (--) - Also caught some. See Traynor for the reason he's back on the board. More re-evaluation to follow in the coming weeks.
60. Mickey Vernon 1B (n/e) - Good player, long valuable career, not nearly the hitter Beckley or Taylor were.
61. Pete Browning CF (57) - He's on the board again. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation.
62. Cupid Childs 2B (58) - Good hitter, but 2B was a hitter's position in his time.
63. Larry Gardner 3B (--) - I see him as a tad behind Traynor, about equal to Childs after bumping for 3B D in his era.
63. Larry Doyle 2B (59) - Ditto
64. Tommy Henrich RF (61) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good comp.
65. Charlie Keller LF (56) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long.

Hank Sauer LF - A great what-if, but as pointed out on his thread, not in the Gavy Cravath/Luke Easter class of what-ifs . . .
   71. OCF Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:52 PM (#1749812)
I guess Jim Sp didn't leave us his complete #16-20, although he does say that Rixey is #16.

John - my suggestion to you is that for the report on the results that you'll issue at closing time this evening just concentrate on 1-15 ballots; analysis of the extended ballots can wait until after that's done and debugged. When I give the consensus scores, they will be based on 1-15 ballots. To do anything else would require me to completely rebuild that spreadsheet, and maybe even change the definition of consensus scores in the process.

As a preliminary comment, I have so far about 10 more players listed on 1-20 ballots than were listed on 1-15 ballots. However, most voters have used these spots for "infill," giving most of these votes to players with higher consensus ranking than the voter's own lowest-ranked 1-15 candidate.
   72. Evan Posted: November 28, 2005 at 07:01 PM (#1749922)
I think the easiest way to report on 16-20 is probably to summarize who has gained the most points as a result, and let people draw their own conclusions. As of now, the most points gained by anyone is Bresnahan, with 28.
   73. DavidFoss Posted: November 28, 2005 at 07:15 PM (#1749952)
I think the easiest way to report on 16-20 is probably to summarize who has gained the most points as a result, and let people draw their own conclusions. As of now, the most points gained by anyone is Bresnahan, with 28.

It will be interesting to see how much things reorder (if at all) -- plus I think we also have several different ideas of how we'd change the tallying (like should we bump up the tallies to maintain an "on-ballot" bonus).

I don't think we should focus on how this affects individual candiates, though, that will just polarize opponents and proponents of those candidates. We should be looking for more generic effects like percentage of ballots for each final ranking and stuff like that.
   74. DavidFoss Posted: November 28, 2005 at 09:32 PM (#1750119)
Testing...

I've been having trouble loading threads on this site for the past couple of hours
   75. OCF Posted: November 28, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1750225)
Same here, but it looks like it's back now.
   76. OCF Posted: November 28, 2005 at 10:39 PM (#1750291)
David - I've got a version set up for trying out several different possible point assignments. (I do suspect I have more tallying errors in the 16-20 range than in the 1-15 range - something about trying to maintain two tallies.) In ranges in which candidates are packed very close together, any change at all can rearrage the order - that's simply the nature of being close. I think that it's not going to make all that much difference to the overall order, other than what happens for close cases.

A particular candidate of note: Buzz Arlett has no 1-15 votes but four 16-20 votes.
   77. jimd Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:08 AM (#1750523)
Ballot for 1965

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next month.

1) B. LEMON -- I'm surprised at the lack of support. My system rates Lemon clearly ahead of Ferrell (and I've been one of Wes' best friends.) What more could you ask of a pitcher over a 9 year span?

2) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

3) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

4) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

5) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

6) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

7) E. SLAUGHTER -- Probably not quite as good a peak as Medwick (but we really don't know). Definitely a better career.

8) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

10) J. TINKER -- Long career playing great defense; integral part of a great team.

11) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

12) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus keeps him on ballot.

13) J. MEDWICK -- Just hanging on.

14) C. P. BELL -- Just moving on.

15) H. DUFFY -- 19th century Medwick.

16) R. MARANVILLE -- Extra credit.

17) T. LEACH -- Extra credit.

18) D. REDDING -- Extra credit.

19) H. HOOPER -- Extra credit.

20) J. RYAN -- Extra credit.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Dick Lundy, Eppa Rixey, Ray Schalk,
24-26) Bobby Doerr, Joe Gordon, Ned Williamson,
27-29) Herman Long, Wally Schang, Rube Waddell,
30-32) Phil Rizzuto, Jim McCormick, Edd Roush,
33-35) Roger Bresnahan, Vern Stephens, Larry Doby,
36-37) Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
   78. Patrick W Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:09 AM (#1750524)
I e-mailed this to the co-commish's 2-3 hrs ago, when the site wasn't working. We'll see if it posts now.

1. Enos Slaughter (n/a), St.L (N), RF / LF (’38-’59) (1965) – Nearly the same value as Al Simmons, though he needed 1000 more AB’s to achieve that value.
2. Bob Lemon (2), Clev. (A) SP (’46-’58) (1964) – Peak trumps Career as a tiebreak in my system, and the slimmest of credit for the war creates a tie between Lemon and Ruffing.
3. Red Ruffing (3), N.Y. (A) SP (’25-’47) (1955) – Looks as good as Ted Lyons did.
4. Bobby Doerr (4), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) (1960) – Reaches Boudreau’s career value but takes about 1700 more AB’s (War Adj. Up) to do so. Boudreau’s peak is once again the difference.
5. Bucky Walters (5), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – Dropping Leonard for poor hitting means I have to raise Bucky. So the consensus score is screwed either way.
6. Alejandro Oms (6), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m worried about the slippery slope here of voting for a non-US based career, but he apparently had great value and did play in the NeL.
7. Willard Brown (7), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) – Very closely ranked to Oms, but Alex gets a bigger boost from peak.
8. Dutch Leonard (8), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – 4 great years before the war, 2 great years after the war, fairly average in between. Dizzy Trout with 500 more IP.
9. Biz Mackey (9), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – He’ll make it in on my ballot someday.
10. Dizzy Trout (10), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) – Trout is causing me to wonder how much credit I should award to PRAA as opposed to PRAR. Looking at translated careers with a 50/50 split, Trout’s pitching value equals that of Ruffing with over 1500+ fewer IP. My peak factor helps Trout out even more. Is a 50/50 split for RAR/RAA fair or is it too much? Maybe Ruffing is elected before this issue is resolved.
11. Joe Gordon (11), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) – I have Sewell being slightly better than Gordon with the glove, and Gordon with every other advantage between the two. It’s a slight advantage in most cases, and it’s not enough to rank Gordon any higher on the ballot than here.
12. Phil Rizzuto(13), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) – At first look, better than Sewell, worse than Gordon.
13. Larry Doby (n/a), Clev. (A), CF (’46-’59) – Not as impressive as I would have guessed on first look.
14. Murray Dickson (n/a), St.L – Pitt. (N) SP (’42-’59) – Best guess is this is another pitcher who is ignored by the electorate, but looks good to me.
15. Bobo Newsom (12), Wash. – Detr. – St.L (A) SP (’34-’47) – I’m actually kinda glad he made the ballot, because it was quite an ordeal to combine his stats during the 8 years he was traded; all that work didn’t go for naught. Like Leonard, his peak was before the war and he had a reprieve in ’46-’47, but he couldn’t capitalize on the lesser competition in ’42,’43,’45. Looking good for the P-Hall, he’ll never make it in the real thing because we won’t be able to decide on a cap.

16. Joe Sewell
17. Dom DiMaggio
18. Bob Johnson
--. Stan Hack
19. Joe Medwick
20. George Van Haltren

Eppa Rixey – Doesn’t appear to be a whole lot different than a dozen other pitchers who have been summarily reject by the voters (Harder, Passeau, Shocker, Warneke, Grimes, …).
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
Cool Papa Bell – Could be on the ballot, but isn’t.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   79. jimd Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:17 AM (#1750533)
Note: Unable to submit earlier due to site problems.
   80. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:23 AM (#1750536)
This is Devin McCullen's ballot:

I honestly don’t think I’m suffering from Shiny New Toy syndrome, but I do think I have a generally lower opinion of the holdovers than most voters. At any rate, I like the 2 new candidates a lot. Avila’s pretty far off the ballot, but I might reconsider. Vernon isn’t anywhere close. At least I have a real ballot again (even if most of it is the same old comments). Doby and Slaughter make my PHoM.



1. Larry Doby (new) As a hitter, similar in quality to Wally Berger, except he maintained his quality for over a decade instead of Berger’s 7 years. Also a good, if not great, CF. I am giving him credit for 46 & 47, and that’s enough to get him at the top of the ballot. Makes my PHoM this year.



2. Enos Slaughter (new) Didn’t quite have the pop of the other corner OF candidates, but had a longer career than most of them (with war credit), and seems to have been a very good fielder for his positions. His peak wasn’t Kiner/Keller-esque, but it was certainly respectable. Makes my PHoM this year.



3. Tommy Leach (2) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. The 1900s aren't any better represented than any other era, and worse than some. Made my PHoM in 1940.

4. Bill Monroe (3) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.



5. Bob Lemon (4) Best available pitcher by my rating system. I think he’s very comparable to Ferrell, with a similar (though lower) peak, and a longer period of effectiveness. Made my PHoM last year.


6. Quincy Trouppe (5) His numbers are comparable to all the other catcher candidates, without the 4 or 5 year period we don't have numbers for. I know the Mexican translations aren't as certain as some of the others, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. Made my PHoM in 1961.

(6A. Earl Averill, 6B Bill Terry)



7. Dick Redding (8) At this stage of the Negro League pitcher analysis, nobody from the crowd has moved ahead of Cannonball Dick to me. Pretty hard for me to decide who’s better between him and Brown, but comparing Negro League P and OF, the latter are slightly better represented in my PHoM. (Although the reverse is true for the HoM, mostly because of Rube Foster. But if I’m going to look at something like that, I should be using my references, right?)

8. Willard Brown (7) On the one hand, I’m not really sure he belongs. On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the OF below him on the ballot. Chris's analysis showed him with the best career numbers of the OF candidates he looked at, and the peak numbers may have been deflated by the missing war years.

9. Joe Sewell (9) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. For example, while I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). With one possible exception, clearly the best SS on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1939.



10. Dobie Moore (13) The possible exception, because we honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore?

11. Cupid Childs (11) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

12. George Van Haltren (15) Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy.
(12A Max Carey)

13. Red Ruffing (16) I think I was overrating him some - he's hard to distinguish from Rixey, and he does seem to have gotten a lot of help from being a Yankee (although his best years in comparison to the team were in the team's best years, 37-39). It’s also looking like the 1930s are pretty well represented in starting pitchers.



14. Joe Medwick (17) With his peak, he's probably just barely ahead of Bob Johnson. I’ve said this before, but if you look at their 13 best seasons (which include all Medwick’s significant seasons), he’s 1 WS/yr ahead of Johnson, and behind him on WARP. I do not understand the huge disparity in their votes.



15. Bob Johnson (18) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.



16. Bobby Doerr (12) He's clearly behind Herman on career and peak, and wasn't clearly the best of his era as Childs was. I can’t help but think something’s screwy with WARP’s defensive evaluation of him.
17. Biz Mackey (22) I am comfortable that he's ahead of Bresnahan, Schang and Lombardi, but those numbers still aren't that striking, and they don't seem to match up to Trouppe's. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
18. Eppa Rixey (20) I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era, but his numbers are impressive. Doesn't do great in my pitcher ranking system, but I'm not sure why.
19. Phil Rizzuto (10) Now I’m not so sure why I liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.

20. Bus Clarkson (22) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Could make the ballot in the near future.



21. Alejandro Oms (19) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
22. Gavvy Cravath (21) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
23. Jake Beckley. (25) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
24. Ben Taylor (26) Slides behind Beckley for now, but they’re close. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
25. Bob Elliott (14) Drops a bunch this week, because I compared him to Traynor, who’s way off-ballot, and it was hard to differentiate them. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
26. Cool Papa Bell (23) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
27. Jose Mendez (27) Great peak, but I still think Redding's distinctly better.
(27A Sam Thompson, 27B Rube Foster)
28. Joe Gordon (29) Not that far from Doerr, should probably be a little higher.
29. Charlie Keller (39) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.

30. Vern Stephens (30) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto
31. Bucky Walters

32. George Sisler (33) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
33. Rube Waddell
34. Chuck Klein

35. Ralph Kiner (27)

36. Dick Lundy
37. Bobby Veach

(37A Hughie Jennings)
38. Pie Traynor

39. Clark Griffith (36) Simply not enough better than his non-HoM contemporaries for me.
40. Edd Roush

The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   81. Thane of Bagarth Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:43 AM (#1750558)
I haven't been able to access this thread (or Primer in general) since about 5pm...I don't think it changes the results (nor do I feel it should count), but I thought I'd put it out there anyhow.
1965 Ballot:
1) Enos Slaughter
With war credit he slips into my top 30 hitters through this election. His 326 WS and 96.2 WARP3 are HoM worthy even without the war credit.

2) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (103.3 WARP3, 992 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

3) Larry Doby
Lands slightly behind Slaughter after bonus for pre-integration play.

4) Bucky Walters
89.6 WARP3, 251 WS. An excellent, underrated pitcher. Similar numbers to Ferrell, but with slightly less peak and more career.

5) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” Even if he was only the third best 1B of the Negro Leagues, he deserves to join the HoM.

6) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

7) Jose Mendez
Possibly better than Redding.

8) Dizzy Trout
87.4 WARP3, 228 WS, Top 5 PRAA/PRAR: 152/447. Here’s a guy where it seems like the war discount you use will greatly affect his placement. I’m ok with the BP discounts, so he comes out high on my ballot.

9) Dutch Leonard
91.9 WARP3, 233 WS. This guy racked up a surprising amount of career value. 956 all-time PRAR ranks second only to Ruffing.

10) Bob Lemon
Yet another pitcher cracks my top 10. Slightly better peak and career numbers than Ferrell, and, like Wes, Lemon could hit, too.

11) Joe Medwick
He’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible hitter. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

12) George Van Haltren
Clearly HoM-worthy by Win Shares, borderline at best by WARP3…I’ve got him somewhere in-between.

13) Bobby Doerr
He’s at the top of the middle infielder heap. In the reverse of the GVH case, Win Shares don’t favor him as much as WARP3.

14) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories made him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor keeps him on the ballot.

15) Willard Brown
As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

16) Eppa Rixey
Loads of career value keep him near the ballot…he’s on one year, off the next.

17) Bobo Newsom
Low peak and a meager OPS+, but some decent career value nonetheless. 81.9 WARP3, 237 WS, 939 PRAR.

18) Fielder Jones
Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 44.3 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.

19) Dizzy Dean
493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. Not much beyond the peak, sort of the anti-Rixey.

20) Pete Browning

------------------------------------------
The Rest of the Top 50

21) Spot Poles
22) Alejandro Oms
23) Joe Gordon
24) Bill Monroe
25) Rube Waddell
26) Lon Warneke
27) Jimmy Ryan
28) Sal Maglie—No matter where he was pitching, he was excellent. There just isn’t space for him on the ballot, yet.
29) Charlie Keller
30) Virgil Trucks
31) Dick Lundy
32) Leon Day
33) Dave Barnhill
34) Tommy Bridges
35) Urban Shocker
36) Ralph Kiner
37) Clark Griffith—He’s not *that* far off my ballot, the backlog just keeps getting deaper
38) Mel Harder
39) Paul Derringer
40) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty ever(?)
41) Dominic DiMaggio
42) Ed Ciccotte
43) Dobie Moore
44) Tommy Leach
45) Jack Quinn
46) Ray Dandridge
47) Vic Willis
48) Murray Dickson
49) Harry Hooper
50) Jim McCormick

Remaining Consensus Top 10
58) George Sisler—The good part of his career didn’t last long enough for me to rank him higher.
60) Biz Mackey—Highest ranked catcher on my list. I’m just not impressed enough by his batting to get him much closer to the ballot.
67) Jake Beckley—Still not excited about this gu
   82. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 29, 2005 at 04:05 AM (#1750593)
I included your ballot, Thane.
   83. Michael Bass Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:39 PM (#1751038)
I'll make this super-quick due to the circumstances. Thanks again to Joe for letting me get this in late due to the server issues, I'll make it a point to try to get future in early.


1. Moore
2. Lemon
3. Mendez
4. Slaughter - Not peakish enough to get higher than this, but still a plenty good player for a long time. As others have pointed out, may have lost his peak to the war, but I can't extrapolate it.
5. Doerr
6. Doby - Not as high on him as others are, his MLB career is good, but unspecial (no better, IMO, than GVH et al who aren't on my ballot). The two outstanding Negro League seasons are the reason he propels onto my ballot at all.
7. Ruffing
8. Walters
9. Dean
10. Sewell
11. Griffith
12. Williard Brown
13. Gordon
14. Trouppe
15. Bob Johnson

16-20: Redding, Sisler, Browning, Mackey, Trout
   84. Michael Bass Posted: December 13, 2005 at 01:33 AM (#1774513)
Thanks, John...I just didn't want my ballot to count in a close election without full thought going into it. Hopefully next week I'll be able to work in the explanations for all again.

1. Williams
2. Moore
3. Lemon
4. Mendez
5. Doerr
6. Ruffing
7. Walters
8. Sewell
9. Griffith
10. Williard Brown
11. Gordon
12. Trouppe
13. Sisler
14. Dean
15. Bob Johnson

16-20: Redding, Dunlap, Browning, Mackey, Trout
   85. OCF Posted: December 13, 2005 at 01:41 AM (#1774521)
Uh, Michael... Did you mean to post that on the 1966 ballot thread? 'Cause it sure looks like a '66 ballot.
   86. sunnyday2 Posted: December 13, 2005 at 02:17 AM (#1774562)
No, that's Cy Williams.

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