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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, February 13, 2006

1970 Ballot

Newbies: Duke Snider, Minnie Minoso, Billy Pierce, Pete Runnels, Bill Bruton, and Luis Marquez

Returnees: Early Wynn, Biz Mackey, Clark Griffith , George Van Haltren, Cool Papa Bell, Bobby Doerr, George Sisler, and Willard Brown.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 13, 2006 at 02:00 PM | 111 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. TomH Posted: February 13, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#1859876)
bump (visibility)
   2. karlmagnus Posted: February 13, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#1859914)
Snider’s clearly a HOMer, but below Beckley and Welch on career length. There’s no way Minoso is as good as Snider or Doby or Johnson; even with 3 full added seasons he’s still about 2400 hits at 130, which is off the bottom of the main ballot. Pierce within consideration set, surprisingly good 119 ERA+. Runnels won a batting title for the Red Sox, and deserves to be memorialized, but is still off the bottom of the ballot.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A) Duke Snider 2116 hits at 140 OPS+ TB+BB/PA .587 TB+BB/Outs .905 Fairly clear HOMer, but loses to Beckley and probably Welch on career length.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-8) Early Wynn 300-244, 4564 innings at 106 ERA+ not as good as Rixey, though more wins. Better than Grimes -- longer career. Missed 1945 but 43-44 should be discounted slightly. Would look better without early Washington part of his career (228-157 at about 115.) Hit nicely for his era – 53 OPS+

8. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just below Wynn.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

10. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-
6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14-13-11-10-9-11-10-9-
10-9-9-11) Clark Griffith. Credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: February 13, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#1859916)
11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

13. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

14. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13-15-14-14-14-13-12-15) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

15. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Back off ballot after a few years just on.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

17. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

18. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

19. Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

20. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

21. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

22. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

23. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

24. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

25. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
26. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
27. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
28. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
29. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
30. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
31. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
32. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
33. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
34. Billy Pierce. Surprisngly good ERA+ in weaker league but not a Yankee. 3307 innings at 119 ERA+ 211-169 definitely better than Redding and Quinn, somewhere around Maglie.
35. Sal Maglie. At 175% of visible career he would have been 208-108, with a 126 ERA+ in 3015 innings. That puts him about here.
36. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
37. (N/A) Heinie Manush
38. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
39. Bob Elliott
40. (N/A) Dick Lundy
41. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
42. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
43. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
44. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
45. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
46. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
47. Kiki Cuyler
48. Deacon McGuire
49. Jack Quinn
50. Tony Mullane
51. Pye Traynor
52. Jim McCormick
53. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
54. Joe Judge
55. Edd Roush
56. Spotswood Poles.
57. Larry Doyle
58. Roger Bresnahan.
59. Wayte Hoyt.
60. Joe Gordon.
61. Harry Hooper.
62. Gil Hodges Significantly shorter career than Hooper/Ashburn, but a bit better. No war credit, I think. 1921 hits at 120 OPS+ TB+BB/PA .539, TB+BB/Outs .807
63. Jules Thomas.
64. Wilbur Cooper
65. Bruce Petway.
66. Jack Clements
67. Bill Monroe
68. Jose Mendez
69. Herb Pennock
70. Chief Bender
71. Ed Konetchy
72. Jesse Tannehill
73. Bobby Veach
74. Lave Cross
75. Tommy Leach.
76. Tom York
   4. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 13, 2006 at 04:37 PM (#1859978)
bump (visibility)

Thanks, Tom. I knew I forgot something. :-)
   5. andrew siegel Posted: February 13, 2006 at 04:38 PM (#1859979)
Three interesting but difficult newcomers and the lingering difficulty of evaluating Wynn make this a challenging ballot. Here goes nothing:

(1) Snider (new)--As I wrote on his thread, you can reason him out of the HoM without making an obvious mistake if that is your intention, but the best current guesses at his value have him somewhere around 100 all-time.

(2) Dobie Moore (3rd)--I started this project as a peak voter and quickly realized that there were just too many guys who were astounding for a year or two to make that a viable strategy. Since then, I have really focused in on a combination of career on the one hand and value over a roughly seven-year period on the other hand. On a seven (or six or eight or nine) year measure, Moore is the best player we have ignored.

(3) Oms (4th)--The objective numbers back up the subjective comments--Sam Crawford with good but not remarkable longevity is probably the best comparison.

(4) Van Haltren (5th)--My position on him remains consistent: the small plusses add up. There are many position players who are quite similar to him in the next 20 spaces and he has a small but signficiant plus factor on each. Another words, he is one notch above borderline.

(5) Wynn (9th)--Not as good as Ruffing, Lyons, or probably Rixey, but very similar in profile (e.g., big peak plus long run as an innings eater). Take Burleigh Grimes, make him 2-3% better and then have him pitch 15% more innings on an era-adjusted basis and you have Wynn.

(6) Roush (6th)--Missed a lot of games due to injuries and holdouts or he would have had career stats that make him a low-interest no-brainer like Clarke, Wheat, or Goslin. Still, was a consistent top 10 (usually top 5) OPS+ guy who was also a solid CF. 135-140 games of that is awfully valuable.

(7) Beckley (7th)--If you do a major era adjustment, he's Palmiero without the steroid issue. If your adjustment is more minor, he's Gil Hodges, Steve Garvey, or Keith Hernandez with a record-long career. Either way, he's a bottom-quarter HoMer.

(8) Duffy (8th)--I need to do a study of why his offesnive WS are so high throughout the early 1890s. Until I do that, I will split the difference between WS assessment of his offensive ability and other metrics. When I do the study, he may move to the top of the ballot or off ballot.

(9) Childs (11th)--Now come the solid 2B with the bats of good OF's. They are both underrated.

(10) Gordon (12th)--Like I just said.

(11) Trouppe (9th)--I wish our info on him was better, but my consistent policy has been to evaluate the excluded players as best as I can and then vote that evaluation without a deduction for their larger confidence interval. Similar to Frank Grant in that there is a chance he wasn't one of the top 1000 players of All-Time but that there is a better chance that he was one of the top 200.

(12) Mendez (13th)--Looks an awful lot like the Lemons, Coveleskis, and Vances of the world.

(13) Sisler (14th)--Had Charlie Keller's career, then another one that was of some small but genuine value. Might be a bit overrated here but the bunching is extraordinary.

(14) Pierce (new)--He looks a bit like Cooper/Mays/Shocker and a bit like Coveleski/Vance/Lemon. I like the former group more than most of the electorate and think that era usage patterns make the second group the better comparison anyway. He's a peripheral guy, but some peripheral guys are going to get in.

(15) Elliot (15th)--Elliot, Doerr, and Sewall are essentially tied on my ballot, but I'm letting position scarcity break the tie.

Next 15: Doerr, Sewell, Schang, Bell, Grimes, Minoso (new), Johnson, Chance, Bridges, Ryan, W. Brown, C. Jones, Kiner, Bresnahan, Griffith.

I'm sad to find out that Minoso is not nearly as good as I had always assumed, but those 3 years of age make all the difference. He is very similar to Bob Johnson; both of them will be within 10 spots of the in-out line one way or the other when this project ends.

As for the holdovers:

Mackey looks an awful lot like Bob Boone with one or two big years with the bat. He's in the 30's.

I really don't like Griffith's low IP totals but am reevaluating him and moving him up slowly. Right now, he is number 30.

The new MLE's for Bell are getting him awfully close to the point where his defense, baserunning, and career length would make him an HoMer. If I can be convinced his ML OPS+ would have been somewhere around 110, he'd be in. Right now, he is 19th.

I have Willard Brown pegged to Andre Dawson, great players who fall just short of the HoM due to unacceptable OBP's. Right now he's number 26.
   6. ronw Posted: February 13, 2006 at 05:04 PM (#1860012)
1970 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Duke Snider Not an all-time great, but he’s more than worthy.

2. Dick Redding I hope he gets elected to the HOF in a few weeks.

3. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor.

4. Larry Doyle We generally elect hitters of this caliber, no matter what the fielding.

5. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT not really an issue.

6. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

7. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

8.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

9. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

10. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

11. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

12. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

13. Clark Griffith The Old Fox is looking better.

14. Cupid Childs With the rise of Doerr, I really looked at Child’s hitting peak this week, and came away less impressed.

15. George SislerThe ‘30s electors would instantly dismiss this project because of Sisler’s omission. To which we would respond, “Really? Morgan Bulkeley?”

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

16. Cool Papa Bell

17. Willard Brown

18. Ben Taylor

19. Alejandro Oms

20. Rube Waddell

Missing top 10

Early Wynn – He’s close, but will probably not make my ballot before he is elected.

Bobby Doerr – Even with war credit, he seems surprisingly similar to Johnny Evers. (Evers – 198.1 BWS in 1784 G, Doerr 196.4 BWS in 1865 G.)

Jake Beckley – I’ve voted for Jake in the past, and probably will again before he is elected.

Newbies

Billy Pierce – I think I’d rather have Rube among shortish-career lefties.

Pete Runnels – The 1960 AL season always seems terrible statistically, especially from the pitching side. But, Runnels also won the BA title in 1962.

Bill Bruton – I was shocked to see that his BWS numbers are very similar to Matty Alou. Of course, that won’t get either of them elected.

Luis Marquez – I’m glad we are remembering him, but he won’t get elected.
   7. DL from MN Posted: February 13, 2006 at 07:18 PM (#1860192)
I've topped consensus twice in 2 chances, so here is the bellwether ballot.

1. Duke Snider - clearly above the rest of this pack but not a clear #1 on most ballots. The backlog is wide but not deep.
2. Clark Griffith - giving him an elect-me instead of Mackey this year due to a better peak. I hadn't heard the "shutouts are unlucky" information before and I'm giving him that benefit.
3. Biz Mackey - Glad to see someone else agrees with the Bob Boone plus more bat comparison. If Bob Boone's hitting had been 15% better I'd put him high on the ballot also.
4. Cool Papa Bell - I like the Ichiro comparison at the plate. His lack of power wouldn't be as damaging as the conversions guesstimate because he would definitely have led off.
5. George Van Haltren - giving him a virtual "elect-me" bonus over Duffy, Roush and Ryan. He's closer to them than I have it slotted but I clearly like him better than those players.
6. Early Wynn - decent peak, gobbled up innings
7. Quincy Trouppe - clearly a talented athlete, I'd slot him higher except for confidence in the numbers
8. Joe Sewell - playing SS gets him above Gordon and Doerr
9. Bobby Doerr - one additional good season separates him from Gordon
10. Bob Johnson - consistently significantly above average for a long time
11. Rube Waddell - too bad strikeouts weren't worth more in his era
12. Tommy Leach - I like multiposition guys (see Trouppe and Van Haltren), that has value that doesn't show up in individual numbers
13. Vic Willis - Not an outlier of his era but a standard deviation away from the mean
14. Dick Redding - I have him paired with Willis on my ballot
15. Jake Beckley - Not my favorite candidate but fits my system well
16. Minnie Minoso - I can't give him more than a season's extra credit which only gets him to the bottom of the ballot.
17-20. Oms, Cravath, Dobie Moore, Tommy Bridges
21-25. Gordon, Ryan, Roush, Trout, Walters
26-30. Jones, Elliott, Sisler, D. Dimaggio, Kiner

Pierce is 63rd on this ballot.

I'm not confident better competition would have been kind to Willard Brown. I'm guessing corner outfielder with mediocre batting averages in the bigs so I've slotted Brown 35th.
   8. yest Posted: February 13, 2006 at 07:41 PM (#1860237)
1970 ballot
Snider and Wynn make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Duke Snider probably underrating him (makes my personal HoM this year)
9. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
11. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
12. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
15. Early Wynn 300 wins (makes my personal HoM this year)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
19. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
20. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Minnie Minoso much worse Negroe Leauge stats tthen I expected
Willard Brown barring new evidence with the expetions of Mackey, Bell, and H SMith I think we’re done with the NNL
Bobby Doerr is 59th on my ballot
   9. AJMcCringleberry Posted: February 13, 2006 at 08:06 PM (#1860296)
1. Duke Snider - Outstanding hitter who played a good centerfield.

2. Bobby Doerr - Great defensive second baseman who could hit.

3. George Van Haltren - Good hitter, good defender, long career.

4. Early Wynn - Over 4500 IP with a pretty good peak.

5. Jose Mendez - Not a long career, but an outstanding peak.

6. Bob Johnson - Great hitter who moves up this high with minor league credit.

7. Willard Brown - Great hitter who played centerfield and shortstop for half his career.

8. Minnie Minoso - Like Johnson gets this high due to minor league credit, wasn't as good a hitter as Indian Bob.

9. Fielder Jones - Great centerfield, great OBP.

10. Bucky Walters - Similar to Mendez, but peak wasn't as good.

11. Joe Sewell - Great shortstop, good hitter. Done at age 34.

12. George Sisler - Very good peak. Could have been great w/o injury.

13. Jimmy Ryan - Similar value to Sisler, but not as big a peak.

14. Bob Elliot - Good defender, very good hitter.

15. Ralph Kiner - Short career, but 7 home run titles and a 149 OPS+.

16. Gavvy Cravath
17. Wally Berger
18. Clark Griffith - Not that many innings for his era.
19. Cool Papa Bell - Long career, but no peak.
20. Edd Roush

Biz Mackey - Not a great hitter and no peak, I have Trouppe rated higher.
   10. Brent Posted: February 13, 2006 at 11:14 PM (#1860632)
1970 Ballot:

Newly eligible candidates Snider and Miñoso are selected for my personal hall of merit.

1. Duke Snider – Easy selection—he’ll be in the top half of the HoM. 8 seasons with 25+ WS, with highs of 41-39-38 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1970)

2. Orestes Miñoso – A feature of our rank-based voting system is that we often can’t distinguish large differences from small ones—in last year’s election, Berra was ahead of the backlog by a mile, whereas in this year’s Miñoso is ahead by an inch. But Miñoso was a fine, fine player--hit for average and with power, and was an excellent outfielder. 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1970)

3. Clark Griffith – Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 124 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

4. Early Wynn – Reconsideration moves him up. Over 9 seasons (1943, 47, 50-52, 54-56, 59) he averaged 20-11, 2.0 wins above team, 257 IP, 117 DERA+, 64 OPS+. CYA for 1959.

5. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

6. Phil Rizzuto – Excellence with the glove is meritorious too. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

7. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

8. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 116 DERA (PHoM 1966)

9. Cool Papa Bell – Very comparable to Ashburn, with a little more power and not quite as many walks. (PHoM 1968)

10. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

11. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1967)

12. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley.

13. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 128 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

14. Burleigh Grimes – Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 115 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

15. Biz Mackey – “His defensive skills were unsurpassed in the history of black baseball . . . In his prime, the switch-hitting Mackey was one of most dangerous hitters in baseball.”—James A. Riley.

Near misses:

16. Charlie Keller
17. Don Newcombe
18. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
19. Roger Bresnahan
20. Buzz Arlett

21-25: Redding, Gordon, Cravath, Pesky, Rosen.

Other consensus top 10:

38. Bobby Doerr – I can't see placing him ahead of Gordon.

39. George Van Haltren – A good player, but I don’t see that he was better than (for example) George Burns or Spottswood Poles.

55. George Sisler – Career value is hurt by a lot of throwaway seasons; peak and prime are not as impressive as those of other hitters such as Keller, Cravath, and Kiner.

Other new arrivals:

I’ve ranked Billy Pierce at # 49 – I’m not as impressed by him as some other voters are; among eligible 1950s-era pitchers I see Wynn and Newcombe as potential HoMers, while Pierce joins Antonelli, Dickson, and Garcia in the HoVG.

Pete Runnels didn’t make my top 100. An outstanding singles hitter, if he’d been able to remain an effective shortstop throughout his career he might have developed into a strong HoM candidate.
   11. Michael Bass Posted: February 14, 2006 at 12:13 AM (#1860725)
1. Dobie Moore - Hughie-lite, a monster player for not as short as you might think.
2. Jose Mendez - Ed Walsh-lite, probably more criminally underrated than Moore, because his comp, unlike Moore's comp, sailed in.
3. Early Wynn - The Ruffing and Lyons comps work for me; lots of career and prime. I like Wynn better as I think his peak is a touch higher. Faber isn't a good comp in my book, Faber's prime was shorter, peak much higher.
4. Duke Snider - For the group, he is an obvious #1, because he is a solid B+ in about everything. For me, his peak isn't high or long enough, and his career/prime have serious length issues (as compared to Wynn, who is slightly above him). I think the key disagreement is defense. WS likes him, WARP hates him.
5. Bobby Doerr - His fielding is what pushes him over the edge...incredible with the leather, plenty good with the stick. Lots of prime, Sewell+.
6. Clark Griffith - Best player from the 1890s left, by a wide margin I'd say. Peak, prime and career, a little of each, I love him.
7. Joe Sewell - The ultimate all-prime career.
8. Bucky Walters - I am about alone on Bucky, but he has the Faber career shape going for him (couple huge years with a long enough career), and I liked Faber.
9. Willard Brown - All the man did was hit; I think he's better than Suttles, who had similar OBP issues, high SLG, but was much less valuable defensively than Brown.
10. Joe Gordon - As good as Doerr with the stick, not as much with the glove. Flaming out early didn't help, but still a great 2B.
11. Quincy Trouppe - I'm willing to look at him again, but I see all positives from his case, even if he wasn't fabulous with the glove (no evidence he was anything worse than average, though).
12. George Sisler - I only hope Medwick's induction means good things for Sisler's candidacy, because they have similar career shapes, and Sisler is clearly better, IMO.
13. Bob Johnson - Sewell-esque career, though as a corner OF vs. an infielder, thus the difference in their placements.
14. Dick Redding - I don't see the evidence of a super-long career or a super-high peak, but I see more than enough evidence of a long career and a very good peak.
15. Fred Dunlap - One of the 5 best players in baseball for 6 out of 7 years. I'd take him over quite a few people currently in the HOM.

16. Pete Browning - Fielding questions, AA questions are what keep him this low. The man could still hit.
17. Biz Mackey - I think he had a great prime, between his solid hitting and amazing defense. His career essentially ends with his prime, which holds him down this low.
18. Billy Pierce - A little better (less peak, more prime) than Dizzy Trout. As compared to Walters, the peak really hurts him (and the prime is not much better; the career obviously is).

19. Fielder Jones
20. Dizzy Trout
21. Bob Elliot
22. Urban Shocker

23-25: Monroe, Minoso, Rizzuto
26-30: Oms, Bond, Luque, Van Haltren, Matlock
31-35: D. Dimaggio, Uhle, Grimes, Scales, Kiner
36-40: B. Taylor, Lundy, King, Veach, Buffinton
41-45: Poles. Harder, Dean, H. Smith, Mays
46-50: Clift, Childs, Bartell, Klein, Byrd

Minoso - Not really enough pre-ML career to boost his good-but-not-great numbers onto the ballot. Very, very good player, better than a solid 25+ HOFers.

Vargas - I still have zero feel for him. I suspect he would fit into my top 50, but I don't feel I have the numbers at all with which to make an accurate ranking of him. Is there more discussion yet aside from the one post in his thread? (Leaving this on my ballot till I get some more information, dammit! :D )

Mackey - #17. See above.

GVH - #29. Best 90s hitter remaining, not quite enough peak to make my ballot, especially considering that the 90s were not packed with inner circle guys, unlike the era immediately preceeding.

Bell, Beckley - Off ballot. No peak, not even much prime. With Bell, I'm open to a reinterpretation of his numbers, but the numbers given right now don't do anything for me.
   12. sunnyday2 Posted: February 14, 2006 at 05:21 AM (#1861032)
Has my ballot turned up yet?

No, I don't see it anywhere. Second election in a row that my ballot went off into the cyber-ozone.

And to think there was a vote for poor old Minnie Minoso in there somewhere.
   13. TomH Posted: February 14, 2006 at 01:34 PM (#1861203)
the evil ballot-eater, determined to disenfranchise Mr. Sunnyday, lurks again....bwa ha ha ha
   14. Rusty Priske Posted: February 14, 2006 at 02:20 PM (#1861210)
PHoM: Duke Snider & Early Wynn


1. Duke Snider (new)

Not a runawy in front of GVH, but #1 nonetheless.

2. George Van Haltren (3,5,1)

I am much happier when he is in an elect-me spot. :)

3. Willard Brown (4,1,6)

The next GVH.

4. Jake Beckley (5,4,4)

5. Biz Mackey (7,6,7)

6. Early Wynn (13,x,x)

Rising support

7. Cool Papa Bell (6,9,8)

8. Mickey Welch (8,8,5)

Don't forget Mickey!

9. Tommy Leach (12,12,11)

10. Dobie Moore (9,7,9)

11. Hugh Duffy (11,11,12)

12. George Sisler (10,10,10)

Mr. Consistancy is slipping.

13. Edd Roush (14,13,13)

14. Quincy Trouppe (15,15,15)

15. Bobby Doerr (x,x,x)

16-20. Ryan, Griffith, Rice, Childs, Redding
21-25. H.Smith, Streeter, White, Willis, Strong
26-30. Gleason, Greene, Doyle, Elliott, Grimes
   15. sunnyday2 Posted: February 14, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#1861229)
>the evil ballot-eater, determined to disenfranchise Mr. Sunnyday, lurks again....bwa ha ha ha

Yeah, what he said.

I have to tell you I recently discovered "24" in its 5th season and got hooked. I am now 1.5 years into the series on DVD. So, yes, absolutely, there is a conspiracy afoot. No question. I have asked a certain Mr. Bauer to check into this for me, so watchout.
   16. Thane of Bagarth Posted: February 14, 2006 at 03:27 PM (#1861254)
1970 Ballot

1) Duke Snider
Finishes just below former teammate Jackie Robinson in my all-time ranks.

2) Early Wynn
He comes out solidly in Red Ruffing/Ted Lyons territory (actually slightly ahead with a small amount of war credit) which makes him the best available pitcher in my book.

3) Ben Taylor
He's been in the top 5 on my ballot since 1958. I see him as equal to, or slightly better than, Suttles among NeL 1stbasemen.

4) George Van Haltren
Big career #s in Win Shares and WARP1. His 3 year and 5 year peaks in WS are almost identical to Ashburn’s, but WARP3 gives the 5 year edge to Ashburn (46.7 to 39.0).

5) Bobby Doerr
Best of the middle infielder heap. Great defense and 115 OPS+.

6) Dick Redding
7) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

8) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but thanks to 300 extra IP and a OPS+ advantage of 13 points Bucky wins out.

9) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories make him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent.

10) Willard Brown
Andre Dawson circa 1935? As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

11) Fielder Jones
Doesn't have the 130 OPS+ that jumps out at you, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he's a ballot contender: 44.3 in top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.

12) Pete Browning
I see him hanging around the bottom third of my ballot for some time to come.

13) Dizzy Trout
Similar WARP career (~87) and 5 yr. peak (~48) to that of Walters, but WS gives Bucky an edge: 248 to 230 career, 132 to 126 5 yr. consecutive peak.

14) Spotswood Poles
15) Alejandro Oms—Like Mendez and Ruffing, Poles and Oms are hard to separate.

Rest of the Top 50
16) Joe Gordon
17) Bill Monroe
18) Jimmy Ryan
19) Charlie Keller
20) Dick Lundy
21) Ralph Kiner
22) Minnie Minoso—Even with a little credit for pre-MLB play he’s not quite on my ballot. His WARP numbers were a little disappointing.
23) Billy Pierce—Solid but unspectacular career.
24) Dobie Moore
25) Dom DiMaggio
26) Burleigh Grimes
27) Tommy Leach
28) Gavy Cravath
29) Ray Dandridge
30) Harry Hooper
31) Bob Johnson
32) Edd Roush
33) Bob Elliott
34) Bobby Veach
35) Joe Sewell
36) George Sisler—Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
37) Phil Rizzuto
38) Biz Mackey—I’m not convinced his hitting was strong enough to earn him a higher spot.
39) Rabbit Maranville
40) Sam Rice
41) Carl Mays
42) Cy Seymour
43) Wally Berger
44) Hugh Duffy
45) Jake Beckley—I can understand why some voters rank him high, my relative preference for peak vs. career just doesn’t favor him.
46) Clark Griffith—A worthy candidate, but I see several other pitchers ahead of him.
47) Lon Warneke
48) George Burns
49) Roy Thomas
50) Kiki Cuyler
   17. DavidFoss Posted: February 14, 2006 at 04:46 PM (#1861357)
I have asked a certain Mr. Bauer to check into this for me, so watchout.

Dammit!!!!
   18. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 14, 2006 at 05:09 PM (#1861407)
1970 Ballot

Is it love or confusion? I keep re-re-re-revising my ballots again and again, and this week’s ballot reflects that. Meanwhile, as Brooks Robinson stuns the world by revealing during the World Series that his left arm has the suction power of a top-of-the-line Electrolux, Jimi Hendrix dies in a hotel room of a drug-related death.

1. Duke Snider: Top-ten centerfielder all the way, best candidate on the board.

2. Jose Mendez: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but he’s chronically underranked and with any luck Chris Cobb and Gary A will soon write a breakthrough expose on how much better he is than we all think he even is.

3. Bucky Walters: This space used to be occupied by Leroy Matlock. I can’t justify that high of a ranking for him any longer without some reasonable proof beyond my own fumbling calculations. Walters, on the other hand, continues to merit high placement with his combo of pitching, hitting, and big seasons.

4. Quincy Trouppe: Dude is on the QT but was an outstanding hitter and a good receiver. Even if you think my Mexico translations for his time in the MxL are loco (mostly at 90% of MLB), knock 5% off him, and he’s still an outstanding catcher.

5. Charley Jones: He was the best left fielder of his time not named Jim O’Rourke and one of the best dozen to fifteen left fielders ever (assessment includes blacklist credit).

6. Billy Pierce: [Every time I think his name, I want to sing it like the Beatles sang “Billl-yyyyyyy Sheeeeeears” on Sgt Pepper] Like Joe Dimino, I have a real big soft spot for Stiebesque pitchers with medium length careers but good streaks of dominance. But like Dave Stieb, my soft spot for Pierce isn’t really a blind spot. He earned his ballot placement like Stieb will in 30 years. In addition, he’s also somewhat like Lemon, who I had in the virtual same spot on my ballot before BL got in.

7.Early Wynn: Old Stubble Ruffing himself checks in right behind Pierce. The two can’t be separated by much and so they aren’t.

8. Hugh Duffy: Hugh’s good enough. He’s near the edge, I agree, but he’s a HOMer.

9. Roger Bresnahan: Another one right near the edge for me. I like how often Raj led his position in WS, and I like that he’s got big seasons. I just want more, more, more.

10. Tony Mullane: Did I miss the whole discussion on Mullane? I discount the AA like everyone else probably does. And I give Mullane credit for his year out of baseball like everyone probably does. I see that he could hit. I see that he was not well supported by his teammates (RSI was 96.5). I see that he transitioned well to the NL before the demise of the AA. So where are the Mickey Welch people for this guy? Or the Burleigh Grimes people? Or anyone?

11. Willard Brown: I think he’s better than Andre Dawson. But I don’t know it.

12. Pete Browning: Nothing not to like here…except for defense and shortness of career and AA deduction. Still with all that, here he is on my ballot---musta been some hitter.

13. Wilbur Cooper: Don’t mind me, just listing out another medium career hurler with a nice prime/peak….

14. Burleigh Grimes: Early Wynn’s more attractive first cousin…. The difference between Wynn and Grimes isn’t nearly as large as suggested by the six ballot spots between them here.

15. Vic Willis: Yeah, I know he’s a conundrum, but I’m cool with confusion as long as it’s shared by others.

16. Cupid Childs: Dominant at position. That’s helpful. Weak field. That’s not helpful. Big seasons. That’s helpful. Short career. That’s not helpful. All in all, it puts him at the HOM’s periphery.

17. Biz Mackey: Good glove, some bat, right at the edge of the HOM but deserving.

18. N/Ed Williamson: All peak/prime all the time. Hard candidate to figure, but I think he’s an “in.”

19. Alejandro Oms: If we knew exactly how much the regression analysis lowered the peak and extended the career of a player it would probably help me gauge Oms more accurately (vis my ballot that is). Now he’s on the edge of the HOM.

20. Dick Redding: Or at least I think so.

21. Don Newcombe: Ditto.

22. Arlie Latham: Where’s the love for this guy?

23. GVH: Someday your plaque will come.

Old guys worth noting:

Clark Griffith: About the 100th best pitcher ever.

C.P. Bell: Here’s a guy I wish I understood better, see Oms comment.

Bobby Doerr: In the 20s.

Geo. Sisler: In the 20s.

New guys, some worth noting:
Minnie Minoso: In the 30s or 40s; MiL and NgL credit don’t help him all that much and age-gate doesn’t either.

Pete Runnels: Second base? Short? First? Nope: batter. A little worse than Ritchey and Feffer, a little better than Grantham and Bishop.

Billy Bruton: Even if he gets any xc, he’s not good enough.

Luis Marquez: No walks makes a speedster not so speedy.
   19. sunnyday2 Posted: February 14, 2006 at 05:13 PM (#1861417)
That's an awful lot of pitchers there Mr. Dr. Chaleeko. What's going on?

(Signed) Jack Bauer
   20. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 14, 2006 at 05:46 PM (#1861479)
Well Jack, the trouble is that I've kidnapped your wife---oops, sorry, wrong plot twist!

Eight is a lot of pitchers, especially for me, the former Dr. Cornerfielder. When I looked at it, I felt there were more guys closer to the middle of the HOM who were pitchers than I felt were near its edge, where at the other positions, most guys were edgers.

My point of view may or may not be substantiated by the percentage of pictures making up the HOM (which is still shy of 30% IIRC). I didn't think it through that way as I was composing my ballot, but it makes sense that if we've underelected hurlers, then a reconsidered ballot might end up with more of them than it had previously.

That said, previously being Leroy Matlack's only friend, I can at least hope for some mild bounce in my consensus score! (Except that I'm now probably Mullane's only friend.)
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: February 14, 2006 at 06:04 PM (#1861516)
Well, Mullane is near the bottom of my top 10 pitchers though that only puts him in the 30s-40 range.Now about that nerve gas.
   22. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 14, 2006 at 06:32 PM (#1861547)
Okay, so this thread has taken a really strange turn...
   23. TomH Posted: February 14, 2006 at 06:52 PM (#1861572)
1970 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

If I can strongly support guys like Walters, Chance and McGraw, and still be one of the top ‘consensus’ guys, we really do have a lot of ballot variety.

1-Duke Snider {new}
We’re talkin baseball…..
2-Clark Griffith (3) [5]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other player in our backlog. Or the new guy, Wynn!
3-Joe Sewell (4) [18]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP, AND very good defense. We will ignore Alan Trammell?
4-George Van Haltren (5) [6]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
5-Cool Papa Bell (6) [7]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer.
6-Early Wynn (7) [3]
Pitched a lot, pitched forever, had a few very good years, hit OK too. Let’s honor him…but this week is too Early.
7-Bucky Walters (8) [23]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
8-John McGraw (9) [37]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
9-Joe Gordon (10) [13]
Nudges out Doerr; I might feel differently if Doerr had helped his team over the top in at least one of the many close pennant races that they lost.
10-Billy Pierce {new}
Similar to Bucky Walters.
11-Biz Mackey (11) [4]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
12-Frank Chance (12) [44]
Y’all know how I feel.
13-Jake Beckley (13) [12]
Fine career.
14-Willard Brown (14) [10]
Close comp to Averill, who I assess as one of our weakest HoMers to date.
15-Ralph Kiner (15) [14]
Great prime

16 Minnie Minoso - looks a lot like Bob Johnson. Could be #10, but he’ll start here.
17 B Johnson – very good long prime
18 G Sisler – great prime; almost Kiner
19-21 B Monroe, C Childs, A Oms
22-24 T Leach, R Bresnahan, P Rizzuto
25-29 B Doerr, P Traynor, D Moore, P Browning, M Welch

Others near the ballot:
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher…for a while.
Jose Mendez….ditto Dean!
Dick Redding …could be #3, could be #99. Same with Luke Easter. Same with….
…Gavy Cravath! … might belong also, but it’s real, real hard to tell
   24. Daryn Posted: February 14, 2006 at 09:05 PM (#1861801)
I have asked a certain Mr. Bauer to check into this for me, so watchout.

Dammit!!!!


Marc, WHO DO YOU WORK FOR?

Anyway, here's my ballot. The comparisons of Pierce to Stieb are interesting. Stieb is my all-time favourite player -- bar none -- and he wouldn't crack the top-30 on my ballot this year. It will be interesting for me if we elect him without my help and against my philosophy of what makes a HoMer.

Here is this week's ballot. I think I have placed Snider too high, but I also know it doesn't matter.

Neither Minoso nor Pierce crack my top-30. I have Doerr at 22, right behind Gordon and Brown at 28, right ahead of Cravath and Arlett. Only the top 10 or 11 on this ballot would make my own Smaller Hall.

1. Cool Papa Bell – It seems likely he would have exceeded 3000 hits with tremendous speed and great defense in a key position. The appearance of another great centerfielder on the ballot made me reassess Bell in comparison to the 300 game winners. Bell came out on top, so surprisingly tops my ballot for the first time.

2. Duke Snider -- 352 career WS (only 16% FWS, compared to Ashburn’s 22%) and a 171 WS five year consecutive peak are very impressive. I like Bell’s longer career better. I think I like Snider over Wynn and Welch, but I’m not sure. He played better in the World Series (.954 OPS) than Wynn (1-2, 4.95 ERA) did. That must mean something.

3. Early Wynn – similar to Welch. The consensus has convinced me to leapfrog him over Welch.

4. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber ( both now elected) and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Grimes at 5 and Joss at 14, which results in 7 pitchers on my ballot. Grimes is among the top 50 all-time in Pitching Win Shares.

6. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

8. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (15) or Schang (27).

9. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

11. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

12. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with Mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. I’ve decided to slot him right behind the two short career pitching balloters, though he could just as easily be ahead of them. He is barely better than Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin. That’s 25 pitchers. It is tough to separate the wheat from the chaff among the pitchers.

14. Addie Joss – I used to have him on the ballot, but then dropped him, perhaps due to peer pressure. But in preparing for Koufax, I asked myself what kind of short pitching career would be ballot worthy (I’m not sure Koufax is); my answer was Joss’. It goes without saying but I give no credit for anything after April 14, 1911. I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. I can’t see how Koufax is better than this guy. So, to make a long story short, he’s back on the ballot, perhaps to stay.

15. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.
   25. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 14, 2006 at 10:02 PM (#1861911)
I would like to mention that my ballot was present commercial free by Chaleeko Wireless Communications, bringing fear into the home with phones that alert you whenever the Vice President is out hunting.
   26. sunnyday2 Posted: February 14, 2006 at 10:07 PM (#1861923)
>I have asked a certain Mr. Bauer to check into this for me, so watchout.

>Dammit!!!!

>Marc, WHO DO YOU WORK FOR?

You'll just have to trust me on this. NOW!
   27. kthejoker Posted: February 14, 2006 at 10:17 PM (#1861941)
I just thought it'd be interesting to point out that Tommy Bridges's #1 comp is Dave Stieb, and that his career and Pierce's are remarkably similar. Pierce just had a monster year in '55 and a longer career, but a lot of their peripherals are pretty close. They both even finished with a career 19 OPS+ (Pierce in 1102 AB, Bridges in 1003.)

I don't know if this will spark any discussion, but the Stieb reference opened up my memory.
   28. OCF Posted: February 14, 2006 at 11:04 PM (#1862007)
My RA+-equivalent records:

Pierce 218-150
Bridges 190-124

Pierce has more of a "big years" bonus on top of that. Pierce has a normal IP/decision (8.70), Bridges a hair lower (8.56); since my equivalent record is based on IP, not decisions, that gives Pierce a few more.

I have to admit that there are a whole lot of pitchers, including elected ones like Coveleski and Vance, down to half-forgotten ones like Bridges, where the differences from one to the next are small and it looks like an exercise in hairsplitting.
   29. Mark Donelson Posted: February 15, 2006 at 12:32 AM (#1862134)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker.

After a slight PRAA-related tweak last “year,” I did a full overhaul this time around, having been persuaded that I was relying on WS altogether too much when it comes to pitchers. PRAA took up most of the slack, but ERA+ and the usual bullshirt entered in as well. I also decided I was generally underrating pitchers (still), so I gave them another general boost across the board.

I also took another look at 3Bs, just to be sure I was applying positional bonuses fairly (in some cases I wasn’t, and guys like Bob Elliott moved up). I'll do the same next "year" with 2Bs, with Fox to evaluate.

Snider and Griffith make my pHOM.

1970 ballot:

1. Duke Snider (pHOM 1970). Perhaps not a complete no-brainer, but he was a better player than I had thought he was, anyway. Solidly among the midranks of the HOM CFs so far.

2. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak.

3. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). We still need more pitchers, and to me, he looks like the best one still out there. Would have loved to see him pitch.

4. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I’m still his best friend, it seems. Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

5. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). It seems many of us agree this era is a bit underrepresented; it’s just that we can’t agree on whether Duffy, the peak candidate, or Van Haltren, the career candidate, deserves to go in. As a peak voter, guess who I choose.

6. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another from that underrepresented era, and another infielder with a great peak.

7. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

8. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done; am I entering best-friend territory? It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

9. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). Looks like a great hitter to me, even if he didn’t walk much.

10. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Underrated, though he drops ever so slightly (a little more this time) as I ease off the WS for pitchers a bit and take his era a bit more into account. Still, an impressive peak by any of my favorite measures.

11. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

12. Clark Griffith (pHOM 1970). The biggest gainer in my pitching overhaul; PRAA really likes him. I’ve been edging toward getting him on my ballot for some time now; this time he finally made it.

13. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers, other than the shoo-in Berra.

14. Eddie Cicotte. Another big gainer in my reevaluation. Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. And since these pitchers pushed Rosen off my ballot, I didn’t want my similarity score rising too much! ;)

15. Bucky Walters (pHOM 1968). Another underrated pitcher with an appealing peak.
   30. Mark Donelson Posted: February 15, 2006 at 12:36 AM (#1862137)
16-20: Rosen (pHOM 1968), Keller, Sisler (pHOM 1939), Bresnahan, Gordon
21-25: Redding, C. Jones, Doyle, [Reese], Browning, [Slaughter], Mackey (pHOM 1958)
26-30: Leach, Berger, Joss, H. Wilson, Oms
31-35: Minoso, Chance, Cravath, Poles, [Ashburn], Doerr
36-40: [Lyons], Roush, McCormick, Ryan, McGraw, Burns
41-45: Elliott, Wynn, Pierce, Pesky, [Rixey], Welch
46-50: [Lemon], Van Haltren, Trout, Veach, Rizzuto, B. Johnson

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Wynn. Better than I thought at first, but still not especially close on peak. He moves up a couple of slots on reevaluation to #42; I expect him to join several recent electees shortly as HOMers not in my pHOM.

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t quite there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, but at #25, he is getting closer to my ballot.

•Van Haltren. Not a peak voter’s kind of hitter. He’s at #46.

•Bell. I took another look, but even with a bump to reduce the smoothing effect of the WS estimates, I still feel he’s just not a peak voter’s type, unless you go entirely on reputation. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Doerr. I see Gordon and several other middle infielders as significantly more deserving. He's midpack at #35.

•Sisler. After a demotion some years back, he’s come back to the point where he’s dropping on and off my ballot, depending on who the new candidates are. Presently #17.

•Minoso. Like many, I was surprised that his numbers (especially pre-MLB) weren’t more impressive. But they weren’t…so he debuts midpack, at #31.

•Pierce. A nice surprise, as I’d always thought of him as mere HOVG material. I was initially tempted to put him much higher, but his lack of IPs in his big seasons convinced me otherwise. Still, he starts off in my top 50, at #43.

•Runnels. Honestly doesn’t impress me that much. I rate Gil McDougald higher, which may have something to do with my team allegiance, I admit. Neither is remotely close to my top 50, so it doesn’t much matter.

•Marquez. As with Olivo last time, I just don’t feel I have the information to make any assessment at this point.

No other newbie made my consideration set.
   31. Howie Menckel Posted: February 15, 2006 at 02:42 AM (#1862367)
1970 ballot, our (and my) 73rd

Like almost everyone else, my two 1969 picks were elected.

I continue to be convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. DUKE SNIDER - About the equal of Ralph Kiner as a hitter in my book, but with a fielding bonus instead of a demerit, and a little plus (though not much) for his extra years. That's enough to get to the top of the ballot here. Injuries slowed him regularly once he got to LA, by the way.
2. JAKE BECKLEY - It'll be his time soon, but I've seen for a while now that a lot of our voters will never ever vote for him.
His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Long, long career of "quite good" is almost unique. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Some parallels to Rixey.

3. DICK REDDING - I'd like to add he and Bell to round out my own personal Negro League contingent, pending further analysis. A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that. I agree that this is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment.
4. COOL PAPA BELL - I enjoy the color-blindness of our evaluations, and this is the ultimate case. Continues a steady climb on my ballot, and this is while conceding that park and steals led him to be a bit overrated. But discounting the myth a bit doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
5. CLARK GRIFFITH - Stays near the top after a brief detour toward the bottom of my ballot two years ago. Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
6. EARLY WYNN - I like these long-career good SPs; they suffer in ERA+ because they had long peaks and long struggles. Outstanding in 55 mostly relief IP at age 43; seems like he coulda played another year, in spite of the myth that he was a hanger-on.
7. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than HOMer Medwick; I like mashers like this, and there's a little war credit. Is getting underrated by the electorate, but gets strong consideration from me.
8. BILLY PIERCE - I always chuckle when someone puts a newcomer RIGHT in the middle. And now here it's happened to me! Some interesting comparisons with Griffith, but a little less effective, played in a weaker league vs a strong one-league, etc. I think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of the era can beat him out (beyond the Spahn-Roberts duo coming soon).
9. JOE GORDON - Moved up 5 slots last week, stays put this time. Candidacies of Doby and Slaughter confirmed that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison.
10. GEORGE SISLER - Hanging in there. The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
11. CUPID CHILDS - A full-length career for this brutal and underrepresented era is darn impressive. I discount the heck out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras.
12. GAVVY CRAVATH - Continues to have a presence on the Howie ballot for the past decade, after 20+ years of resistance. The key is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. And his work in his 30s is just outstanding. Doesn't need a lot of minor-league credit to beat Medwick. Comparison to Kiner is even more fascinating.
13. BOBBY DOERR - Like Gordon, deserving of our strong consideration. I was tempted to move him ahead of Gordon, but I have a problem with a guy having a monster year in 1944, of all years. Weird how both might have skated in if only they played a couple more modest seasons instead of just disappearing.
14. BOB ELLIOTT - Probably better than HOMer Hack, has returned to my ballot in recent years. Wish he'd play all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Amazing how much better a hitter he was than Pie Traynor.
15. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed on my radar 4 years ago and onto my ballot 3 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, and other borderline HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. Just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.


JUST MISSED
PETE BROWNING - Tough one for Pete, who was mid-ballot for me only a few years ago. He's slipped just behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14 last year. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Has not been on my ballot in many years. Better pick than Mackey.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Slips from 15 last year. I dismissed him long ago, but as the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15. Don't think he's a HOMer, but tough to find 15 better.
MICKEY WELCH - Will return to the ballot someday. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.

SNUBBED NEWCOMER
MINNIE MINOSO - Minnie doesn't quite measure up on the scale of boomers like Kiner and Snider, even factoring in credit for his high OBPs and his durability. The Ashburn comparison is interesting, but less so for me - I didn't even have Ashburn in the top 15, and have no regrets about that.

TOP 10 RETURNEES STILL SNUBBED
WILLARD BROWN - Horrible OBP and played in a weak league. I even blaspheme by taking the "hey, the Negro Leagues were tougher" sour grapes for his late-career MLB flop with a grain of salt, frankly.
BIZ MACKEY - Probably will get elected in a few years without me. I just don't like mediocre hitters, even if they're pretty good for their position. Fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth in his era? Convince me on that, and maybe he joins the ballot.
   32. OCF Posted: February 15, 2006 at 02:57 AM (#1862395)
BILLY PIERCE - ... I think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of the era can beat him out (beyond the Spahn-Roberts duo coming soon).

The comparison that I haven't looked at yet: to Whitey Ford.
   33. sunnyday2 Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:09 AM (#1862418)
Can we get the New Eligibles Year by Year thread fixed, as long as we're using it. It's bad enough to try to read it, but posting! Oy!
   34. Rick A. Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:30 AM (#1862453)
PHOM
Duke Snider
Hugh Duffy

1970 Ballot
1.Duke Snider – Elected PHOM in 1970
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
7.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
8.Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
9.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
11.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
12.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information. Elected PHOM in 1966.
13.Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
14.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot
15.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation.

New Candidates
Minnie Minoso Better than Medwick or Johnson. Just misses my ballot.
Billy Pierce Too many similar pitchers who aren't close to my ballot.
Runnels, Marquez,Bruton No where near my ballot.

Required Disclosures
Bell and Sisler Just miss my ballot.
Wynn Better than Rixey, Ruffing and Faber, but I'm more of a peak/prime voter.
Van Haltren Not far behind F. Jones, Ashburn and Carey on my ballot.
Doerr I like Gordon and Doyle better
Griffith Never ranks too well in my system. I'm probably underrating him since he won much more than his peripheral stats would show. Even so he'd need to jump up 40 slots to make my ballot and I don't see that happening.

Off the ballot
16-20 Bresnahan,Dean,Monroe,Leach,Bell
21-25 Oms,Waddell,Mays,Minoso,Matlock
26-30 Sisler,Roush,Johnson,McGraw,Cravath
31-35 H.Smith,Gordon,Elliott,Doyle,Trouppe
36-40 F.Jones,Wynn,Easter,Poles,W.Cooper
41-45 Tiernan,Winters,Rosen,Stephens,Bond
46-50 Schang,Rizzuto,A.Cooper,VanHaltren,Keller
   35. KJOK Posted: February 15, 2006 at 04:21 AM (#1862500)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

4. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 28 POW, 83 WARP1, 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s, and in the top 10 of his 30 year era.

5. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.


6. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

7. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

8. DUKE SNIDER, CF. 23 POW, .664 OWP, 334 RCAP, 103 WARP1, 8,237 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 4th best CF in 30 year era, which is pretty good considering the competition. Best of the outfield glut.

9. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

10. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

11. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. “War discount” years puts him slightly behind Snider.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

14. EARLY WYNN, P.20 POW, 117 WARP1, 105 RSAA, 184 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 106 ERA+ in 4,566 innings. May have him too high, as not sure he’s much better than Jack Quinn, but on the other hand he’s close to Rixey.

15. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

RETURNEES:

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception perhaps a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

BOBBY DOERR, 2B. 40 POW, 107 WARP1, 234 RCAP & .539 OWP in 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Have him just ahead of Childs & Gordon at this time.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

JOE GORDON, 2B.29 POW, .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson, or Averill, who can’t make my ballot.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.
   36. jingoist Posted: February 15, 2006 at 04:36 AM (#1862507)
Looks like HoM voters are sending a big fat Valentine to Edwin "Duke" Snider. Not bad for a guy who was injured on an almost annual basis from age 32 onward.

Minnie, on the other hand is getting the Charlie Brown treatment.

Call up Peppermint Patty and get her to send in a vote for Mr. Minoso.

I ask you, where is the love?
   37. DavidFoss Posted: February 15, 2006 at 09:18 AM (#1862674)
Aw, man... I spend a half hour on a season write-up and it got lost. Bummer...

Quite an interesting season. Its too late to try that again, but here is a stream of consciousness re-write. O's - Earl Weaver juggernaut, Palmer healthy Cuellar pickup. Twins - Billy Martin, Harmon, Carew, Perry, Boswell. also... young Reggie 40 HR in 97 Games. O's ALCS sweep.

Cubs collapse, but Mets streak to 100 wins to win going away. Seaver, Koosman. Ten team shutouts in Sept. Braves streak as well to go from 4th to 1st in Sept. Aaron, Carty, Niekro, late-season pickup Wilhelm. Mets ALCS sweep. Mets win WS.

1970 Ballot

1. Duke Snider (ne) -- Held his own against Willie and Mickey until the big migration westward. Injuries are keeping him out of the inner circle, but he's still ahead of my legion of teddy bears.
2. Clark Griffith (3) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
3. Larry Doyle (4) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
4. John McGraw (5) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
5. Cupid Childs (6) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
6. Dick Redding (7) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
7. Ralph Kiner (8) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
8. Gavvy Cravath (9) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
9. Biz Mackey (10) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft spot for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
10. Charley Jones (12) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
11. George Sisler (13) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
12. Joe Gordon (11) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
13. Roger Bresnahan (14) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
14. Joe Sewell (15) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
15. Bob Elliott (15) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.

16-20. BJohnson, Doerr, BPierce, Rosen, Trouppe,
21-25. Chance, Lombardi, Beckley, WBrown, Browning,
26-30. Wynn, Welch, DMoore, Minoso, Leach,
31-35. Waddell, Roush, CPBell, Newcombe, BWalters
   38. Gadfly Posted: February 15, 2006 at 02:03 PM (#1862699)
1970 Ballot (Gadfly)

There are a lot of interesting new players on the ballot: Billy Pierce and Sam Jones, two good pitchers who are polar opposites; Al Smith and Bill Bruton, two guys who both had pronounced, injury related, mid-career slumps; Bobby Schantz and Luis Marquez, two careers that never really were because of injury and racism; and Pete Runnels, a two time batting champion.

However, every one of these guys, although all very good players, would be a class D Hall of Famer. That just leaves two guys for consideration: Duke Snider and Minnie Minoso.

Snider grades out as a Class B+ Hall of Famer. He has the peak but faded out quickly. Minoso is a harder case. A lot of people have made a Hall of Fame case based on his age, but his given birth year, 1922, is incorrect as he added 3 years to get out of Cuban military service.

But he was a Major League star player from 1948 on (hitting .336 in the 1948 Negro National League) and has to be given some credit for that. Interestingly, given that credit, Minoso grades out as about equal to Snider on career value, though obviously not peak. In the final analysis, Minoso was a B-/C+ Hall of Famer.

Something tells me (the fact that he's still alive) that Minoso will very shortly be elected to the Hall of Fame in the February 2006 Negro League election. But, like the still-living Buck O'Neil, Minoso will not be particularily deserving of the honor just based on his career.

1. Gavy Cravath (A+5)
He was the greatest slugger of his time, trapped in Minors for his prime, and would have hit well over 500 home runs in his career if it had only started in 1922, not 1902. A Proper evaluation of his Minor League numbers makes it clear that he was a Major League caliber player for 20 years with an astounding peak. Exactly the type of player the Hall of Merit was formed to honor.

2. Willard Brown (A+4)
The Brown thread has Willard's career petering out quickly after 1949. He was the best hitter in the Negro League from 1947 to 1949 and should have had a career lasting from 1936 to 1955 if the world was colorblind. Another guy who would have easily passed 500 home runs in his career without wars and stupidity. Brown also walked much more than he is being given credit for in his thread (playing in Puerto Rico during his prime, Brown was walking more than once per every 10 at bats).

3. Luke Easter (A)
Basically Willie McCovey’s bigger stronger brother with his career hidden under layers of racial discrimination, World War II military service, injuries, and then age discrimination. Easter is the baseball equivalent of an iceberg. If Easter, Brown, and Cravath had all gotten to play their full careers out in the Majors, Luke Easter would have been the one most remembered. And it's not even close.

4. Dick Redding (A)
Redding would have won over 300 games in the Major Leagues with well over 200 of them coming from 1910 to 1920. A huge man (6 foot 3 or 4 and 210 to 230 pounds) Redding threw hard all the time. He has no real comparable white contemporary which, in and of itself, is an indication of his value.

5. Cool Papa Bell (A)
6. Alejandro Oms (A)
7. Tetelo Vargas (A-)
8. Biz Mackey (A-)
All very overqualified Negro Leaguers and badly underestimated by the conversion rates in use. The three outfielders (Bell, Oms, and Vargas) are all very similar with Oms having the best bat and Bell being the best defensive player. Although I think Richie Ashburn was a fine player, he cannot hold a candle to any of these three guys. Biz Mackey was the black Gabby Hartnett.

9. Charlie Jones(B+)
Jones was clearly a better hitter than Pete Browning or Ralph Kiner, who are both close comps. If he had only played ball from 1871-75, not been blacklisted for two years, and not changed his name, Benjamin Rippay would have been an easy Grade A Hall of Famer.

10. Duke Snider
The brevity of Snider's career as a great player is somewhat surprising. Basically, he was really good from just 1949 to 1957 with a really pronounced peak from 1953 to 1956. The fade after 1958 was dramatic. It was said that Snider didn't really like playing baseball all that much. I don't know if that's true, but it sure doesn't look like he put any effort into getting it back once he lost it.

11. George Van Haltren (B+)
12. Rube Waddell (B)
13. Hugh Duffy (B)
Three more forgotten guys from the turn of the century. Van Haltren is directly comparable to and much better than Jake Beckley; Waddell was great and would have been much greater at virtually any other time in baseball history; and Hugh Duffy was the Kirby Puckett of the 1890s with a longer career.

14. Jose Mendez (B)
Mendez was, for seven years, one of the three or four greatest pitchers extent (with Johnson, Brown, and Mathewson). His career, as a pitcher and light-hitting shortstop lasted 20 years. Basically, he is the ‘Hughie Jennings’ of pitchers.

15. Quincy Trouppe (B)
Trouppe is basically a much bigger, much stronger, better version of Wally Schang and would have walked a 100 times a year in the Major Leagues while hitting for power and average.

16) Ben Taylor (B-)
17) Edd Roush (B-)
18) Minnie Minoso (B-)
19) Charlie Keller (C+)
20) Joe Gordon
21) Chet Brewer
22) Tony Mullane
23) Clark Griffith
24) Tommy Leach
25) Roger Bresnahan
26) Bill Wright
27) Pete Browning
28) Ralph Kiner
29) Burleigh Grimes
30) Bill Byrd
31) George J. Burns (C+)
32) Bucky Walters (C)
33) Dick Lundy
34) Wally Berger
35) Dobie Moore
36) George Sisler
37) Early Wynn
38) Cupid Childs
39) Frank Chance
40) Larry Doyle

As always, I believe that the conversion rates used in the Hall of Merit for Negro Leaguers and Minor Leaguers are inaccurate (see Cravath thread) and unfairly downgrade Negro League and Minor League performances. This, of course, makes my list top heavy with Negro Leaguers and poor Gavy Cravath.

Also, I give catchers a 30 percent position bonus, pitchers a gradually increasing position bonus from 1921, and credit for career interruptions that are timeline related (i.e. wars but not injuries). I also upgrade for various other small things like the 1877-78 and 1892-1900 contractions while downgrading the early AA, 1884 UA, 1890 AA, 1914-15 FL, etc.

My ballot relies on Win Shares and tries to weight peak and career equally, basically multiplying the total WS of the player's best 5 years by three and adding this number to the total career WS to arrive at a score that looks like an old-fashioned grading system (i.e. 900 and above: Grade A Hall of Fame/Merit player, 800-899: Grade B, etc.). The system favors peak as it should since peak wins pennants.

WILLARD BROWN note: In 1951, the 36-year-old Willard Brown returned to the Negro American League. He played the first half of the NAL season before accepting a more lucrative offer to play in Latin America. The quality of the Negro American League had declined by 1951, it was probably a Double-A quality league at the time.

Brown, still an awesome Major League quality hitter, tore the NAL apart. In his half season, he hit .420 (58-138) and has been credited with one HR. But this is were it gets odd. The 1 HR is a typo. Brown actually hit 10 HRs in the 1951 NAL and slugged .761 and was leading the League in all three Triple Crown categories when he left town.

And yet, in his thread, Brown is no longer counted as a Major League quality hitter in 1951.

For some context: In 1950, Willie Mays hit .330 and slugged .547 in the NAL. In 1951, Mays hit .274 and slugged .472 in the National League. By admittedly crude conversion with some sample size issues, Brown would have probably hit over .325 and slugged over .600 in the 1951 National League in comparison with Mays.
   39. Chris Cobb Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:19 PM (#1862728)
Gadfly,

On your last ballot, you mentioned PRWL walk data for Brown. Would it be possible for you post those numbers? I'd like to be able to work them formally into my MLEs for Brown.
   40. Al Peterson Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:29 PM (#1862735)
1970 ballot. Get a couple newcomers to the ballot then the rest mostly stay where they are at.

1. Duke Snider(-). Not being Mantle or Mays usually isn’t a black mark on your record. Nice peak performance.

2. Clark Griffith(3). Best left over from the 60’6” transitional period of pitching. Was a winner, good auxiliary stats to go with it.

3. Dick Redding (4). CANNONBALL!!! Pitched in multiple leagues, each time having success. He’s the NeL pitcher I think we’re missing.

4. Bobby Doerr (5). Yes, above Gordon. But the gap is less than the difference in ballot positions seems to indicate. Does well in the non-Win Share metrics.

5. Edd Roush (7). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

6. Bob Johnson (8).
His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

7. Jimmy Ryan (6). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

8. Rube Waddell (9). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.


9. Frank Chance (11). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. Had some speed for his day as well.

10. Biz Mackey (10). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

11. Early Wynn (12). Workhorse for an awfully long time. The question of whether those vast amounts of innings were worth it can be open to debate. This is about where Rixey was placed so I’m good with that.

12. Hugh Duffy (13). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s.

13. Cool Papa Bell (14). Speed game particularly suited for the Negro Leagues. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

14. Billy Pierce (-). Wynn is a better choice but the gap isn’t too severe. Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

15. Dobie Moore (16). Seems like slot #15 is the one I swap people in and out of. Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years.

16-20: Oms, Minoso, Mullane, Leach, Browning
21-25: Mendez, Kiner, Berger, Sisler, Poles
26-30: Childs, Van Haltren, Easter, Sewell, Bridges
31-35: Byrd, F Jones, Keller, Lundy, Shocker
36-40: Gordon, Elliott, Willard Brown, Stephens, Trout
41-45: McGraw, Ben Taylor, Veach, Joss, Roy Thomas
46-50: Cicotte, Willis, Trouppe, Hack Wilson, D. Leonard

Top Returnees: Sisler (#24), Van Haltren (#27), Willard Brown (#38), Beckley (around #60), they all could be ballot worthy. Sisler and Beckley have 1Bmen I rank ahead of them. Van Haltren and Brown are somewhere in the large mass of outfielders which I try to sort through to come up with a ballot.

New guys: Minoso starts off just off the edge of the ballot. I like Indian Bob better and Oms is right there as well. Everyone else gets a pass from me.
   41. Paul Wendt Posted: February 15, 2006 at 07:45 PM (#1863106)
George Sisler The ‘30s electors would instantly dismiss this project because of Sisler’s omission. To which we would respond, “Really? Morgan Bulkeley?”

I suspect that the 1936 and 2006 electorates were about equally familiar with the baseball career of Morgan Bulkeley. We don't know even that Bulkeley was elected by the small committee that selected him.

Rube Waddell - too bad strikeouts weren't worth more in his era

I'm sure the error rate was higher on ground balls than on strikeouts. Isn't it remarkable that Waddell was the unearned runs leader of his time?

Andrew Siegel [good comments, a.s.]
I'm sad to find out that Minoso is not nearly as good as I had always assumed, but those 3 years of age make all the difference.

Beside the pre-1893 players and the pre-1947 black players, I "am" (in the extended present tense) surprised that so many Cooperstown omissions are in the Hall of Merit, some of them quickly (Magee, Hack). Some slowly but they aren't even sabermetrically famous omissions (Sheckard, Ferrell). And surprised by the high standing of some others (Van Haltren).

If the Hall of Fame is a five-tier cake, I didn't realize that the fourth tier is so large or that this electorate would over time so clearly assess so many. Often almost no time: Faber and Lyons in, Coveleski and Vance in, to name only the pitchers from one era and on one side.
   42. sunnyday2 Posted: February 15, 2006 at 07:57 PM (#1863131)
>10. Duke Snider
The brevity of Snider's career as a great player is somewhat surprising. Basically, he was really good from just 1949 to 1957 with a really pronounced peak from 1953 to 1956.

Really good for 9 years and great for 4 is essentially the definition of a Def. B HoFer which is above the 50th percentile of HoFers (or HoMers). It is made to sound here like a bad thing.
   43. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 15, 2006 at 10:04 PM (#1863348)
Jingoist,

I would have to say that considering the age change (from 28 when he started to 25) and the correspondingly low NeL and MiL translations that our caution on Minoso is warranted. When I joined the project, I figured that Minoso would be like Hack, Santo, etc. A guy that we would sweep into the HOM, but this new info shows that I was wrong. He may still get in but I dont' see a big deal of difference between Minnie and a whole host of other corner guys ranging from Willard Brown to George Burns.
   44. jingoist Posted: February 15, 2006 at 11:33 PM (#1863502)
Dont disagree jschmeagol.

In a post to another thread I contrasted what I felt was a "first year sweep" into the HoM for Richie Ashburn versus the more detailed analysis of Minnie's career that is taking place currently.
After looking at Richie more closely I think the electorate was correct in electing him, just not sure why he went in on a first ballot and solid performers with similar credentials like GVH, Duffy and Roush linger on after 60 years or more.

As a kid I always thought Minnie was one of the top 3 or 4 AL outfielders for the entire 1950's decade; BBref seems to show that's true.
That said, that fact alone doesn't necessarily make him an "automatic HoMer".
I guess my memeories are now being challanged by the HoM electorate as I knew they would.
I can remember watching first-hand almost all of the newly-eligible players you will be considering going forward.
Now I'll need to reconcile what I think I remember with what actually happened and view this beauty contest with a set of more pragmatic eyes.

Keep up the great work guys; this is the first site I visit in the morning and last at night.

Never imagined that I'd get so caugt up in all this......... I surely am enjoying this effort of love immensely.
   45. OCF Posted: February 16, 2006 at 01:14 AM (#1863609)
Keep up the great work guys; this is the first site I visit in the morning and last at night.

Never imagined that I'd get so caugt up in all this......... I surely am enjoying this effort of love immensely.


I you go looking for me on some early HoM thread - maybe 1902, somewhere around there - you'll find a post or two explaining that I'm a lurker who has no intention of becoming a voter. Next thing you know, I got sucked in.

The pull is there. Are you going to hold out forever?
   46. Sean Gilman Posted: February 16, 2006 at 01:41 AM (#1863648)
1970

1. Duke Snider (-)--He’s good.

2. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares (plus a little war credit). According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cupid Childs (5)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

5. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

6. Clark Griffith (7)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

7. Larry Doyle (8)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. George Sisler (9)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

9. Early Wynn (10)--Win Shares isn’t a fan of his peak, though WARP thinks better of him. Gonna slot him in between Griffith and Mays.

10. Cool Papa Bell (11)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

11. Hugh Duffy (12)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

12. George Van Haltren (13)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

13. Carl Mays (14)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

14. Biz Mackey (15)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage. (1968)

15. Willard Brown (16)--The most anonymous player on my ballot.

16. Joe Sewell (17)
17. Edd Roush (18)
18. Alejandro Oms (19)
19. Minnie Minoso (-)
20. Ralph Kiner (28)
21. Quincy Trouppe (20)
22. Jose Mendez (25)
23. Vern Stephens (21)
24. Roger Bresnahan (22)
25. Bob Elliott (23)
26. Ed Williamson (24)
27. Bobby Doerr (26)
28. Dave Bancroft (27)
29. Wally Berger (29)
30. Bucky Walters (30
   47. TomH Posted: February 16, 2006 at 03:55 AM (#1863762)
Gadfly, I can admit that my interpretation of the NeL translations may be wrong. But this seems quite a bit of hyperbole:
Although I think Richie Ashburn was a fine player, he cannot hold a candle to any of these three guys. Biz Mackey was the black Gabby Hartnett.
--
Ashburn and Bell were very similar. Richie had some serious black/grey ink in the categories dealing with getting on base. Do you think Bell would have been better? Don't the NeL data (once you put in park effects) show that many other hitters were as good as Bell was? And Hartnett - lifetime slugging of .489, OPS+ of 126, OWP of .610. Fourth highest RCAP of all MLB catchers through 1964. If our translations for Mackey (saying that he was an average hitter) are THAT FAR off, we may as well shred them all.
   48. Rob_Wood Posted: February 16, 2006 at 06:19 AM (#1863899)
1970 ballot:

1. Duke Snider - clearly number one on this ballot
2. Jake Beckley - very high career value
3. George Van Haltren - best of underrepresented 1890s
4. Bobby Doerr - great fielder, good hitter
5. Joe Gordon - ditto
6. Bob Johnson - very good player
7. Ralph Kiner - too good to overlook
8. Willard Brown - Joe Medwick comparison seems right
9. Tommy Bridges - great pitcher for awhile (with wwii and pcl credit)
10. Early Wynn - middle of the ballot
11. Bob Elliott - similar in many ways to bob johnson
12. Cupid Childs - another 1890s star
13. Clark Griffith - TomH makes good points, could be higher
14. George Sisler - despite sabr reevalution, still a hom'er
15. Dobie Moore - I fear I have him too low

Group top ten not voting for = Biz Mackey (way down on my list) and Cool Papa Bell (reevaluted him up to around 20-25). I just cannot see me voting for either of them any time soon.
   49. Brent Posted: February 16, 2006 at 06:30 AM (#1863904)
Tom,

Gadfly has addressed the NeL translations many times on various threads, and I don't think there is any doubt that he sincerely thinks that the translations are very much understated.

I have to agree that I also question some of the translations. For example, according to the recent translations of Minnie Minoso's pre-MLB record, his average was .269 from 1946-50, which compares to his actual MLB average of .306 from 1951-55. That difference is so large that I really don't consider the translation to be credible. You just don't see baseball players who suddenly add 37 points to their average and then sustain it over a period of years, unless there is a change in environment (such as moving to a hitter-friendly park). Also, there is the problem of missing data for his 1948 NeL seasoon, which shows up in the translation as a gap in playing time. Some voters forget that the translations are very imperfect projections, not actual statistical records. The translations often can't adequately adjust for factors like park effects or differences in run scoring environment that we consider routine in analysis of major league records. We ought to treat all of these translations with a healthy dose of skepticism (including, of course, the minor league translations that I have sometimes done) and consider their plausibility in conjunction with other evidence. In the case of Minoso, I think his established batting ability over his major league career provides a better indicator of his likely pre-MLB performance than is provided by the MLE translations.

Although I don't think the biases in the translations are as large as Gadfly contends, I've always appreciated his critiques. I think he has pointed to some real problems, especially for the 1930s when the NeL contracted to a single league.
   50. caspian88 Posted: February 16, 2006 at 06:44 AM (#1863919)
1. Duke Snider - Close, but he takes the top spot. His peak from 1952-1957 is awesome, with good seasons before that and effective (if injury-marred) seasons afterwards. 140 OPS+, 1481 RC, 7.48 RC/27, B+ fielder.

2. Jose Mendez - Once again, reminds me of Juan Marichal, judging by his Win Share translations in his discussion thread. Marichal would be ahead of Snider, but Mendez isn't quite that good, and I'd prefer to be a bit conservative with players for whom we have problematic statistics. Best pitcher still eligible, barely.

3. Bobby Doerr - Almost as good offensively as Gordon, and a better fielder with a longer career. 115 OPS+, 1184 RC, 5.91 RC/27, A fielder.

4. Alejandro Oms - WS translations put him about here for me.

5. Addie Joss - I rate him higher than just about anyone else. Insane ERA total, excellent ERA+ totals, and even compared to the pitchers still available to be elected, he's the best of the major league group. Even with his relatively low IP totals, I don't see how he can rate below Griffith, Wynn, and the others. The man was good. I didn't even give him credit for seasons missed due to death. 142 ERA+, 2327 IP.

6. Charlie Keller - Awesome peak, especially if we give war credit. Even without it, he only drops a few spots. I just don't see how one can ignore his 1940-1946 seasons. I'm a strong believer in the peak. 152 OPS+, 803 RC, 7.75 RC/27, C fielder.

7. Roger Bresnahan - Another man with a deserving peak. Catcher who had OPS+ between 129 and 162 for 6 seasons, with short but effective seasons at other times, while being a good fielder who also played center. He looks to have been a decent basestealer, although we only have one year of full data (19/3 in his last season). 126 OPS+, 646 RC, 5.22 RC/27, B fielder.

8. George Sisler - I used to think he wasn't much better than average, and before that I thought he was great (Superstar Baseball once held great sway over my opinions, and Sisler was the best first baseman in that game, even over Gehrig). 1916-1922 was great, with a few more useful seasons besides. Just beats out Easter, to whom I can't give too much extra credit. 124 OPS+, 1477 RC, 6.7 RC/27, B- fielder.

9. Joe Gordon - not better than Doerr, peak not as impressive as Bresnahan or Sisler, short career (even with war credit). Those are the reasons for his ranking here. 120 OPS+, 942 RC, 5.73 RC/27, B fielder.

10. Clark Griffith - Very good peak from 1895-1901, just not as good as Joss. Slightly better than Redding, who upon further review has dropped. 121 ERA+, 3385.2 IP.

11. Edd Roush - actually appears to have been a better hitter than any other center fielder (except Snider) on the ballot, with above-average defense as well. 126 OPS+, 1204 RC, 6.09 RC/27, B- fielder.

12. Dick Redding - By WS, I have him just below Griffith, and Roush just edges in here above him. Very good pitcher, though - but this ballot is very tight.

13. Luke Easter - Awesome when he played, simply phenomenal. Too bad he didn't play more than he actually did.

14. Ralph Kiner - If baseball statistics were "pictures of negotiable virtue," Kiner's page on Baseball Reference would be among the top in the way of hits. Great peak, marred by defense and by his short career. He stands a good chance of moving up as I reevaluate my rankings. 149 OPS+, 1140 RC, 7.9 RC/27, C fielder.

15. Rube Waddell - Another great pitcher hurt by a short-dead-ball era career. 134 ERA+, 2961.1 IP.

Top 10 not on the ballot and a few besides:

Early Wynn - I just don't find him impressive. Not enough great seasons, and those weren't as great as the guys on my ballot.

Biz Mackey - average hitter, great fielder, right? But I'm no longer too sure about catcher defense and its actual value. Is an average catcher worth as much as an average shortstop, defensively? Maybe in the Negro Leagues, with more emphasis on bunts and baserunning. I just can't see him rating above Bresnahan or Trouppe.

Cool Papa Bell - Just misses the ballot, with Snider and Roush ahead of him at his position.

Willard Brown - Andre Dawson wouldn't have made my ballot. Brown is about as good, but I'm being conservative here.

Minnie Minoso - One extra season is all I can give him. That season isn't good enough.

Billy Pierce - Better than Wynn, not as good as Waddell.
   51. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 16, 2006 at 09:57 AM (#1864176)
Keep up the great work guys; this is the first site I visit in the morning and last at night.

Never imagined that I'd get so caugt up in all this......... I surely am enjoying this effort of love immensely.


That is pretty cool to hear. Glad you are having a fun ride!

I wonder what it's going to be like when we're done . . . the whole, "life's a journey, not a destination thing." Or to quote the greatest rock band ever:

From the point of ignition
To the final drive
The point of the journey
Is not to arrive
Anything can happen

I want to see the final results, but I don't want to be finished . . .
   52. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 16, 2006 at 10:05 AM (#1864191)
"My RA+-equivalent records:

Pierce 218-150
Bridges 190-124

Pierce has more of a "big years" bonus on top of that. Pierce has a normal IP/decision (8.70), Bridges a hair lower (8.56); since my equivalent record is based on IP, not decisions, that gives Pierce a few more.

I have to admit that there are a whole lot of pitchers, including elected ones like Coveleski and Vance, down to half-forgotten ones like Bridges, where the differences from one to the next are small and it looks like an exercise in hairsplitting."

Don't forget guy, Bridges gets some war credit. He was rattling off 22 start, 140 ERA+ seasons like clockwork when the war hit. I give him credit for an extra 360 IP, with a 24-14 record. I also give him an extra 11 WARP1 and 10.5 WARP3.
   53. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 16, 2006 at 10:06 AM (#1864192)
"Don't forget guy" - should be 'guys' wasn't singling you out OCF!
   54. TomH Posted: February 16, 2006 at 02:18 PM (#1864267)
Brent, you are right, Gadfly has competently addressed this previously, and Minoso provides a good example, although the end-of-the-age NegLeg translations are less in play here. My point is that it seems more effective to state one's case without stretching it to the point where some of us who WOULD come on board now have a tendency to discount the whole argument because of the overreach.
   55. DanG Posted: February 16, 2006 at 02:25 PM (#1864270)
My #1 and #2 were elected. We have some good discussion for 1970, with Snider, Minoso and Pierce coming on the ballot. In 1971, Spahn will be elected and Nellie Fox will be debated. Roberts and Koufax are new pitching candidates in 1972; Gilliam may draw some interest as well.

1) Duke Snider – Perhaps not a top 100 player, but clearly the best in this bunch. James grossly overrates him at #50 all-time.

2) Clark Griffith (3,1,1) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Like Leach et al, he doesn’t have that one big Wow! that gets voters excited. Career only seems short due to missing two years after contraction; peak only seems low because the contracted league is harder to dominate. Good hitter, too. A workhorse in his prime, averaging 332 IP from 1895-99 (an era of high offense, 5.7 R/G/Tm), in seasons that were 15% shorter than today. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

3) George Van Haltren (4,3,2) – I’ve been among his five best friends for 35 elections. As the ballot thins out he climbs up again. Now in his 62nd year eligible. His day will come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4) Early Wynn (8,ne,ne) – Little difference between him and the rest of these candidates. Love the career, good prime. Eerily similar to Rixey: loonng career, workhorse, military service, weaker league. Pitchers with 4000+ IP, 1916-76:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing
5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons

5) Tommy Leach (5,4,5) – Still in danger of Lost Cause status, but held his ground again last election. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

6) George Sisler (6,5,6) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

7) Cool Papa Bell (7,6,9) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Moving up.

8) Edd Roush (9,7,8) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he finished in the top 30 for the first time in six years. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

9) Minnie Minoso – A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable five-tool talent. WARP3 trashes him for league quality, which probably accounts for his cold reception by the electorate. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years over 30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

10) Biz Mackey (10,8,7) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he may be the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

11) Roger Bresnahan (11,9,11) – Led the pack in 15th-place votes in 1967, 68; sank like a stone with three strong newbies in 1969. Only about seven voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

12) Jimmy Ryan (12,10,12) – The Ryan express is back on track; Ryan’s Rooters kept him in the top 40 for another election. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings. To those 15 voters who had GVH in their top nine last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes. Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

13) Bobby Doerr (13,11,13) – Consensus of ratings consulted puts him ahead of Gordon. Doerr over Childs; similar peaks and hitting, but Doerr was a much better glove and had a longer prime. Players with 1600 games at second base, 1876-1959:

1—2650 E. Collins
2—2209 C. Gehringer
3—2126 B. McPhee
4—2035 N. Lajoie
5—1852 B. Doerr
6—1813 B. Herman
7—1775 F. Frisch
8—1735 J. Evers
9—1728 L. Doyle
10-1719 R. Schoendienst
11-1687 D. Pratt

14) Jake Beckley (14,12,14) - Back, for awhile at least. He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

15) Wally Schang (15,13,15) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

Off Ballot

16) Dobie Moore – First time on my ballot in 1968, drops right off. If there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him.

17) Burleigh Grimes – Before 1968, he was last on my ballot in 1945.

18) Cupid Childs – I’ve voted for him three times: 1914, 1915 and 1942. The backlog added since then still has not quite played itself out.

19) Hugh Duffy – Last appeared on my ballot 1941 thru 46.

20) Alejandro Oms – He haunts me, too.

21) Joe Gordon – Little difference between him and Doerr.
   56. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 16, 2006 at 02:51 PM (#1864283)
Brent,

I agree with you regarding the use of MLEs. They are imperfect tools for assessing pre-MLB play. They are highly suggestive of a level of play, but each voter should use his or her own best judgement in drawing conclusions from them and weaving those conclusions into their own systems.
   57. DL from MN Posted: February 16, 2006 at 03:41 PM (#1864335)
I've completely revamped everything in the past couple days. I had Pierce way too low on my ballot due to a math error. I don't think it makes a huge difference in the long run (Snider still at the top) so I'm content to wait until 1971 to fix it.
   58. Gadfly Posted: February 16, 2006 at 04:17 PM (#1864379)
39. Chris Cobb-
Willard Brown Puerto Rican Walk data
YEAR AB BB SO
1948-49 294 40 20
1949-50 331 31
   59. Chris Cobb Posted: February 16, 2006 at 04:28 PM (#1864394)
Gadfly,

Thank you!
   60. Gadfly Posted: February 16, 2006 at 04:56 PM (#1864429)
Once again
39. Chris Cobb-

Willard Brown Puerto Rican Walk data
YEAR AB BB SO
1948-49 294 40 20
1949-50 331 31 14
1951-52 112 08 11
TOTALS 737 79 45

As you can see, Brown walked a lot in 48-49 following his unbelievable 47-48 season. It's pretty obvious the pitchers, remembering the year before, wanted no part of him. The data from 49-50 and 51-52 is probably more representative of his normal rates.

Unfortunately, Brown's BB-SO data for 1947-48 is unavailable, but, judging from his AB/G ratio, it's obvious that he was walking a lot, probably even more than in 48-49. Basically, I believe that, in 47-48, Brown, still smarting from his miserable St. Louis Brown experience and also wanting to get back to the Majors, actually buckled down and worked the count. The effects of this was unbelievable:

G-60, AB-234, R-79, H-101, 2B-20, 3B-5, HR-27, RBI-86, BA-.432 PRWL Triple Crown.

Doing crude comparisons of Brown's walk rate with other PRWL players who also played in the Majors, I believe that Brown would have walked, in his prime, 30 to 40 times a full season in the Bigs with highs of 50 or so walks some seasons when he was hitting well (the increase being mostly intentional and semi-intentional walks).

The Andre Dawson comp for Brown is all right except that Brown had two good legs, could run, and was much more of a pure home run hitter than Dawson. Brown was, in my opinion, much much better than the Hawk. He has more in common with Kirby Puckett (who I also think he was better than) than Dawson. Realistically, Brown is pretty unique, something like the bastard son of Puckett and Juan Gonzalez, only better than either.

And my favorite Willard Brown stat:

Reggie Jackson holds the number 2 spot of the PRWL single season HR list with 20 in 1970-71. Willard Brown is number 1 with 27 in 1947-48 (and the PRWL was undoubtedly tougher in 1947-48). If Jackson was able to hit over 40 HRs (high of 47) in the Majors, how many could Brown have hit at his best?
   61. SWW Posted: February 16, 2006 at 05:16 PM (#1864466)
Ah, 1970. Finally, a year in which I actually existed. I wanted to celebrate by taking a fresh look at the entire ballot, but a family emergency has intervened. So we’ll have to save that for my first full year on the planet.

<u>1970 Ballot</u>
1)Edward Donald Snider – “Duke”
Am I wrong, or will we be inducting Willie, Mickey and the Duke in reverse order? 47th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 50th on Bill James Top 100. 68th on SABR Top 100. 73rd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 83rd on Sporting News Top 100. 83rd on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
2)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A standout National League pitcher of his era. The best possible combination of prime and career, several seasons as one of the best pitchers in the game. He appeared on 19 ballots in his first season, 1940. Last year, he appeared on 10 ballots. Wynn is surprisingly similar, but I still give Grimes the edge. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
4)Early Wynn Jr. – “Gus”
A popular candidate among the electorate, so I am going to urge you to compare Wynn to Grimes, and really look hard to see why Gus strikes you as a more viable candidate. When I look at the black ink stats, I see two men who have extremely similar performances. I think they both belong in our Hall, but other than the dreaded Shiny New Toy syndrome, I’m not sure why Burleigh doesn’t get the love. 100th on Sporting News Top 100.
5)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
A tremendous high with decent career filler. As a Hall member, he would follow in the footsteps of guys like Medwick and Averill. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6)James Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
Got his real first name! His numbers are not as gaudy as those of Gibson or Santop, but they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
7)Edd J Roush
And last year’s Ashburn discussion led me to review center fielders. Roush still turned out looking good. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
8)Willard Brown
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot. The general lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy does trouble me somewhat.
9)Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Easier to swallow than the mess of pitchers, though.
10)Robert Pershing Doerr
11)Joseph Lowell Gordon
12)Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
Reading over the discussion thread, I can see that I’ve unfairly slighted Gordon in comparison to Doerr. Sadly, Gordon seems to have been seriously derailed by the war; he only makes one appearance in the AL’s Top 10 Win Shares upon returning to the game. I wish I knew if that was actually war-related, or simply represented a career in rapid decline.
Meanwhile, a quick review of Doyle reminds me that he was the best second baseman in the National League for several years running. His numbers are legit. If we’re really all that concerned about ignoring earlier eras, Larry has to get back into the debate.
13)Carl William Mays
A gentler career arc than that of Ferrell or Lemon, higher highs than Willis. Frankly, I think the only reason more people vote for Lemon is the black ink. Mays is higher in career WS, peak, WS, prime WS, and they’re practically even in gray ink.
14)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but it makes me feel good about the fact that they sit side-by-side on my ballot. (Rice spends this year just off, in the #16 slot.)
15)Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
His closest comp at age 53 is Jim O’Rourke, so that’s good. His major league stats alone mark him as at least a borderline candidate. His Negro League performance doesn’t seem to be bolstering those numbers, but I’m not sure yet how much that works against him. For now, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and slotting him on my ballot. I’ll know more next year. And if by chance you stop in at Sluggers and you see him, please mention that he needs to change the flag on his car. It’s time. 85th on Bill James Top 100.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Clark Calvin Griffith
I found that Griffith had striking similarities to Dick Redding, who I have voted for in the past. Redding has a higher peak, Griffith a higher prime. So for the time being, they’ll be my Van Haltren & Ryan of pitchers, hanging out together through thick and thin.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangeable with Jimmy Ryan, and I don’t support either one. Similar to Pete Browning, too. Only finished in the Top 10 in Win Shares in his league once.
   62. Gadfly Posted: February 16, 2006 at 05:23 PM (#1864478)
47. Tom H-

The conversion rates are measuring two things:
1) actual difference in quality between Leagues; and
2) player adjustment to their new Leagues.

It is my opinion that the second factor is just as great as the first (if you want a complete explanation see the Cravath thread). However, the second factor has to completely eliminated to get a true conversion. This has not been done, not even close.

Basically, Minor and Negro leaguers are being compared to Major League players while standing in a hole. It's like saying Ashburn, at 5 foot 11 inches, is taller than Cool Papa, who is only 5 foot 8 inches, without noticing that Cool Papa is standing in a 6 inch hole.

I personally think the WS and OPS Conversions are off by about 20 percent. Even at this margin, the very best get in, but Cool Papa and Mackey, who were both very good hitters but primarily defensive forces, get shafted.

And yes, Ashburn was an OBP force, but, in my opinion, Bell, who had many of the same virtues as Max Carey, was just as good in his own way while being a superior defensive player over a MUCH MUCH longer career.

Vargas was an even better hitter, but worse defensive player, than Bell over a career of equal length, and Oms was a fantastic hitter but worse defensively than either Bell or Vargas over a slightly shorter career.
   63. Gadfly Posted: February 16, 2006 at 06:10 PM (#1864537)
Brent-
Thanks! Nice to know someone listened even though I long ago gave up fighting the good fight.

And, as long as we're on Cool Papa Bell and the 1930s contraction, this is interesting:

Cool Papa Bell-
YEARS AGES G AB R H 2B 3B HR BA SA SB BB
33-36 30-33 154 637 144 194 18 11 04 .305 .386 28 68
38-41 35-38 154 638 166 234 39 20 14 .367 .556 34 84
43-46 40-43 131 511 100 173 16 09 00 .339 .405 18 56

1933-36 and 1943-46 Negro League stats from just published "Shades of Glory" which has statistics, League games only, for the Negro Leaguers in the Hall of Fame. 1938-41 Stats from Mexican League, pro-rated to 154 G.

According to this, with no evaluation, Bell was a greater hitter at 40-43 than 30-33, though there is almost surely info, particularily 2B and SB missing from the 33-36 data.
   64. OCF Posted: February 16, 2006 at 07:11 PM (#1864630)
Don't forget guys, Bridges gets some war credit. He was rattling off 22 start, 140 ERA+ seasons like clockwork when the war hit. I give him credit for an extra 360 IP, with a 24-14 record.

That seems a tad optimistic. I have him at an equivalent 14-7 for 1943, but now that I look at it again, I may not have taken any level-of-competition discount for that year. He was 36 years old in 1943, and his 192 IP that year were more than he'd had the previous two years. Those 22-start seasons by older pitchers were going out of style all over the league as night baseball increased and doubleheaders decreased. When he came back at age 38-39 he didn't even get much of a chance.

So I couldn't see adding 24-14. But 13-11 would put him at an equivalent 203-135. Not that much in the way of big seasons, because he wasn't really a workhorse inning-eater. I'll take another look at him before I vote.
   65. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 17, 2006 at 03:24 AM (#1865372)
1970 ballot

However I first want to ask Joe which Beatles song he quoted. He did say the best rock band ever right?

Snider and Ralph Kiner make my PHOM

1. Duke Snider (x, PHOM) - Monster five year peak with some godo shoulder seasons as well. Lack of an extended prime keeps him out of the inner circle.

2. Cupid Childs (3, PHOM) - I guess that Cupid is not my pet candidate. I think he is better than both Doerr and Gordon (and Fox for that matter). Great peak and a logn career for an 1890's MIer.

3. Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM) - Best of the 1890's CF trio based on his superior peak, also had some decent career value.

4. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe and that ain't bad. Great fastball.

5. Charlie Keller (6, PHOM) - Great peak, even better with war credit. Not quite as good a hitter as Kiner but he had much more value in the field. Possibly baseball's 3rd best OFer between 1940-1946 (of course Musial's career started later than 1940)

6. Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) - The black Hughie Jennings with a little less peak and a little more career.

7. Ralph Kiner (9, PHOM) - Jumps over Walters as I continue to waiver at putting Bucky into my PHOM. Seven straight HR titles.

8. Bucky Walters (8) - Next in line for my PHOM, I like the medium career/high peak pitchers like Walters, Lemon, and Ferrell.

9. Clark Griffith (10) - 4th best pitcher of the 1890's but is that enough? Great ERA's but he didn't pitch a lot of innings per season. Still, I think he is HOM worthy in time.

10. Pete Browning (11) - Probably the equal of Kiner and Keller if I didn't have misgivings about the quality of the AA.

11. Joe Gordon (12) - Nearly indistinguishable from Bobby Doerr, however I think that war credit, fewer war deductions, and a higher peak place him slightly ahead of Doerr.

12. Early Wynn (13) - I have him tied to Rixey in my PHOM standings, long career with a decent but not great peak. For some reason I am more likely to like a pitcher whose strength is career than a position player.

13. Bobby Doerr (14) - Right on the heels of Gordon.

14. Quincey Trouppe (15) - Best catcher on the board, much better at hsi best than Biz Mackey was.

15. George Van Haltren (16) - Gets back onto the ballot after a year off, not much worse than Duffy, but his lower peak knocks him down a few knocks. Much better than Beckley.

16-20 Dean, Sisler, Oms, Rosen, Waddell
21-25 Bresnahan, Berger, Mendez, Elliot, Cravath
26-30 Brown, Minoso, Willis, Pierce, Roush
31-35 Newcombe, Mackey, Bell, Lundy, Rizzuto
36-40 Monroe, Veach, Doyle, Sewell, Shocker
41-45 Johnson, Leach, Thomas, McGraw, Stephens
46-50 Wilson, Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Burns

Required Disclosures

17. George Sisler - He will get back on my ballot by the time he is elected. I am not sure he is a HOMer because I dont' think he peak was all that high, but I can't say I am 100% sure about that either.

26. Willard Brown - may be good enough to make it onto my ballot, but I have to wonder if his lack of strike zone judgement woudl have doomed him in MLB.

32. Mackey
33. Bell - Two guys with lots of career value but without much at their peaks. I dont' think that Bell or MAckey were good enough hitter to warrent HOM induction. I don't know where the line is but right now I think it is above them.

newbies

27. Minnie Minoso - We are beginning to look into his MLE's again but I dotn' think there is much there to really boost him. While it is possibl ehe belongs I think he is probably in the bottom 5% of the HOM, much lower than I thought he would be when I joined in 1935.

29. Billy Pierce - Not sure exactly what to do with him. Good rate stats and enough career tomake it but he didn't pitch many innings per season. I stil have yet to decide if this was for a Whitey Ford reason (only pitched against the best) or for something less worthy, like his manager didnt' think he could handle it.

And lastly, to rub it in to the older guys, we still have eleven more years until we are in a year in which I existed.
   66. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 17, 2006 at 04:26 AM (#1865456)
"I've completely revamped everything in the past couple days. I had Pierce way too low on my ballot due to a math error. I don't think it makes a huge difference in the long run (Snider still at the top) so I'm content to wait until 1971 to fix it. "

DL - if you could, I'd prefer if you fix it for this year. The first year a player is on the ballot establishes a pecking order, and I think it's important to get it right. I would say this even if I didn't support Pierce myself.

OCF - I will double-check later, but I think that the essay on Bridges in the james/Neyer pitcher book led me to believe that Bridges would have been his typical self in 1944-45 and that he didn't get a fair shake in 1946, or something else happened in 1946 that wasn't relevant to 1944-45. I'll double check and give specifics when I get a chance to reread it.
   67. sunnyday2 Posted: February 17, 2006 at 06:17 AM (#1865565)
Well, if we're gonna fix Pierce then we should also fix our ratings to accomodate the latest Minnie Minoso MLEs, which changed on Thursday of voting week.
   68. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 17, 2006 at 07:04 AM (#1865608)
Absolutely Marc, on Minoso.

Hadn't gotten that far yet . . . I'll check them out now.
   69. Howie Menckel Posted: February 17, 2006 at 02:49 PM (#1865782)
I had already given Minoso a 108 OPS+ bonus season, which goes from being very kind to about right in my mind, given the new info. It really didn't help much.

But I agree with Joe on the changing of the Pierce ballot in particular. It's only one voter, but an extra 15 pts or so sometimes can move a single player many places once you get below the top 5 or so.
Not sure it's practical to ask for all earlier voters to reconsider Minoso, but if not it might be worth adding a note to the 1971 thread to make doubly sure he gets the proper consideration.
   70. sunnyday2 Posted: February 17, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#1865824)
Well, actually my point was whether it was practical to ask everybody to reconsider Pierce in the middle of the week....

As for Minoso, the point, however, is that the new data suggests he was a MLer in 1947. Your one extra year is already one of two possible MLE years, and now you've given him one of three possible years. That third year is what is new. Anyone who gives or gave MLE for MiL play by Gavy Cravath or Buzz Arlett or Earl Averill could fairly be looking at 3 years for Minnie, not one. I'm not saying you, Howie,I don't know how generous you are with MLE. But in general, anybody who is giving Minoso 0-1 MLE year just needs to know that the MLEs that have been provided by our MLE expert has gone from 2 to 3 possible MLE seasons. One may (or may not) be fair, but it is certainly not generous.
   71. Chris Cobb Posted: February 17, 2006 at 04:13 PM (#1865845)
My ballot is still in progress, but I can say with certainty that the change in Minoso's MLEs moves him from off-ballot to on ballot in my system. I hope that voters who place significant weight on career or on total seasons at or above average will reconsider Minoso's placement in light of Dr. Chaleeko's changed projections.
   72. sunnyday2 Posted: February 17, 2006 at 04:21 PM (#1865855)
I just did a comparison of Minoso to Monte Irvin on the Minoso thread. Interesting. Irvin beats Minnie up through age 25 and for NeL vs. NeL play. After age 25 they are pretty much the same player, though Minoso played 500 more games even AFTER giving Irvin WWII credit. So for peak/prime, in my opinion they are about equal.

Then for career, Irvin played at a higher overall rate while Minoso has those extra 500 games (again, AFTER giving Irvin credit for 2.5 full seasons or 350 extra games) during WWII.
   73. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 17, 2006 at 05:20 PM (#1865937)
Really? Minoso beign awarded 8 extra WS in 1947 changes everything? As I see it 1947 was the first year in which he looked like a guy who could play in MLB, so I can't give him more than a cup of coffee for the season. It is then followed by a few blah seasons and then his decent 1950 season. That is one good season and a few years when he did little more than add to his future career totals. The only thing the new MLE's did for me was give him 9 more career WS in 1948.
   74. favre Posted: February 17, 2006 at 05:32 PM (#1865958)
1.Duke Snider
2.Alejandro Oms

Unless I’m mistaken, Snider has more career Win Shares than any other hitter on the ballot—pretty impressive, given that he was a part-time player by age 33. Easy #1 pick.

At 340 WS, Alejandro Oms is projected at #3 in career WS. Larry Doby is not a bad comp. They were the same type of players, hitting about 140 OPS+ with very good CF defense in their primes. Both had long strings of 25+WS (nine for Oms, eight for Doby), Ashburn is another comp that people have mentioned (327 WS for Ashburn; Oms projected at 340).

WS is criticized for overrating centerfielders. That’s possible, and I admit I don’t understand the math. OTOH, CF is an extremely important position, and guys who can field it well and hit are very valuable players.

3.Jake Beckley
4.Wally Schang

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons in between where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, which is impressive for a catcher. Career .393 OBP in a .349 era.

5.Rube Waddell
6.Jose Mendez

I know Waddell allowed an inordinate amount of unearned runs, that his RSI index isn’t impressive, and that he was very unreliable. But his top four ERA+ seasons are 179, 179, 165, and 153, and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Arguably better than Feller at his peak.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba. Taken as a whole, this evidence convinces me that he was a better pitcher than Dick Redding.

7.Dobie Moore
8.Billy Pierce

Moore does not quite have the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot four decades ago.

Like some other voters, I’m fond of pitchers like Pierce, with mid-length career IP's and high ERA+s. He did play for a lot of teams that had very good defenses, which gives me a little pause. I’m going to start him mid-ballot.

9.Tommy Leach
10.Cool Papa Bell

Leach actually has more career WS than any major-league position player on the ballot besides Snider and Van Haltren, and Van Haltren's numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Played A+ defense at centerfield AND third base, and could hit a little (career 109 OPS+). It’s not like the HoM suffers from a third baseman glut.

I’d rather have Ashburn and Leach in their primes, but over his career Bell both saved and created a whole lotta runs. He deserves to be in.

11.Joe Gordon
12.Ned Williamson
13.Bobby Doerr

Gordon had a 120 career OPS+ while missing two prime years to the war; Doerr had a 115 OPS+ while playing during the war years; both were A defenders. This convinces me that a) Gordon should *absolutely* be ahead of Doerr and b) both players should be on the ballot. We don’t see this kind of combination of defense and hitting at 2B until we reach Joe Morgan and Ryne Sandberg.

Williamson is still the best pure third baseman available almost eighty years after he retired. His main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson has a better peak and considerably more defensive value.

14.Clark Griffith
15.Ralph Kiner

Griffith made my pHoM in 1930, but fell off the ballot sometime in the 1950s, I think. It must have been a nightmare to pitch in the 1890s: the mound was moved back, offensive numbers were soaring, the best hitters contracted into one league. Griffith was consistently very good through that time period, although I wish his IP were a little higher relative to his contemporaries.

I’ve wanted to put Kiner on the ballot for some time, but I never could quite pull the trigger. Chris’ argument for more ‘40s players made sense, and I also felt my ballot was a little short on big hitters. Kiner’s top three seasons were just fantastic.

16.George Sisler
17.Orestes Minoso
18.Biz Mackey
19.Early Wynn
20.Roger Bresnahan

Minoso does not have quite enough career or peak to make the ballot; Dr. C’s newly-revised MLE’s don’t help his case much with me. Pretty equivalent to Oms as a hitter. Alejandro has more defensive value, although Saturnino Orestes Armas knew how to use a glove as well. He could easily move up.

Sisler and Mackey continue their on again, off again journey through my ballot. Mackey’s career is impressive, but doesn’t have a lot of peak; Sisler’s prime is outsanding, but not particularly historic for a 1st baseman, and the rest of his career is almost worthless. I’m not really knocking either, though; I think they both belong.

Several other voters have compared Wynn to Red Ruffing, whom I was not a big fan of. I did read Wynn’s thread and understand that his K-rate went up significantly at age 30, but it’s still hard for me to believe that his transformation from mediocre innings-eater to star didn’t have something to do with his move from Washington to Cleveland.

21.Gavvy Cravath
22.Bob Elliott
23.George Van Haltren

I think Van Haltren gets too much credit from the electorate for his pitching, but he did do a lot of things well for a long time.

24-25: Cupid Childs, Larry Doyle, Edd Roush
26-31: Edd Roush, Pete Browning, Bob Johnson, Vic Willis, Burleigh Grimes, Dick Redding
32. Willard Brown

I probably have more distance between Oms and Brown than any other voter. I know their projected WS totals are pretty similar, but I just don’t see it. Oms walked a lot more, he had much more defensive value, and Brown did not have that much more power.
   75. Chris Cobb Posted: February 17, 2006 at 05:52 PM (#1866008)
jscmeagol wrote:

Really? Minoso beign awarded 8 extra WS in 1947 changes everything? As I see it 1947 was the first year in which he looked like a guy who could play in MLB, so I can't give him more than a cup of coffee for the season. It is then followed by a few blah seasons and then his decent 1950 season. That is one good season and a few years when he did little more than add to his future career totals. The only thing the new MLE's did for me was give him 9 more career WS in 1948.

I didn't say it changes "everything." I said it moved him from off-ballot (he was c. 18-20) to on-ballot (c. 13-15). It moves him up about five places. When the players are as closely bunched as the borderline group is, even a little change in value matters, and this change isn't all that small.

For those who give MLE credit whenever a player performs at major-league average level or better, 1947 will make a significant contribution to Minoso's career, so this change will matter to all those voters in and of itself.

That's not my way: I give MLE credit starting one season after the player establishes himself as a major-league average player, so this change means only that I am crediting Minoso for 1948, but I see 1948 as a considerably more value season than you are giving it credit for being. Here are the details that need to be considered.

1) Dr. Chaleeko's playing time estimate there doesn't match what Minoso actually did. Because he didn't have NeL data for Minoso for that season aside from knowing that he played, Dr. Chaleeko's playing time and quality-level estimates are based only on Minoso's 11 games in the Central League and his 69 (of 72 team games of CWL play. Rather than projecting those out to the full season that we have good assurance Minoso played, Dr. Chaleeko simply adds them together for an 80-game projected season of 10 win shares. At the very least, this should be projected out to 17 win shares in 140 games.

2) However, we now have a little bit of data about Minoso's NeL play that year. Gadfly provides data in his ballot that Minoso hit .336 in his NeL play in 1948 (see the prefatory notes to post 38 above -- thanks to Brent for catching and repeating this detail on the Minoso thread). Using the usual .90 conversion rate, this comes out to .302. Using a more conservative .87 conversion rate because of the decline of the NeL at this point, this comes out to .292. Giving Minoso 60 games at .292 to go with the 80 games at .272 for which Dr. Chaleeko has already credited him bring Minoso to .280 in 140 games, which is exactly what he hit in 1947, in 148 games. If one then prorates his ws from 148 games to 140, that gives him 19.2 win shares for 1948 instead of the 8 that you propose for him.

In sum, given the revised projections from Dr. Chaleeko and the batting average data from Gadfly, my view is that Minoso should receive credit as an average major-league player for a full season of play in 1948. Adding 1 more league-average, full season to the career of a player in the borderline group would make a signficant difference in his value for anyone who places significant weight on career in their systems.
   76. sunnyday2 Posted: February 17, 2006 at 06:33 PM (#1866083)
>When the players are as closely bunched as the borderline group is, even a little change in value matters, and this change isn't all that small.

What he said.

Basically it shifts Minoso's "possible" or rather "likely" ML career start date from 1949-50 to 1947-48, depending on whether you are more agressive (then, 1947) or less so (then, 1948 instead of 1950) in translating from the NeL data. IOW to me this adds "possbily"--meaning everybody has to decide for himself, but possibly--2 years.
   77. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 17, 2006 at 06:43 PM (#1866097)
Chris,

I didn't notice Gadfly's note, thanks for picking it up. With only his batting average to guide us in 1948, we can still create a very speculative MLE (as you have done) by using data from surrounding seasons to fill in his various rates. If we assume he'd played 50 of 60 team games in the NNL plus the 11 in the minors, roughly the same as you have done, it comes out to a full sason of 150 g. When I then roll it together with his Cuban numbers, I get this

YEAR LG AGE PO  AVG  OBP  SLG   G  PA  AB  H   TB BB OPSSFWS
-------------------------------------------------------------- 
1948 NL 23  OF .294 .370 .406 150 638 569 167 231 69 110  20.8 

If one operates under the assumption that the first see-me year belongs in the minors, then Minoso has three seasons (1948-1950) of MLE credit at 110, 99, 116 OPS+es (109 for the period); 20.8, 13.4, 22.4 SFWS (56.6 for the period); and a line of .291/.363/.421.

I'm going to copy this post over to the Minoso thread as well for more discussion, but I think I'm probably going to have to now post a version three for Minoso's MLEs in light of this new 1948 information.
   78. DL from MN Posted: February 17, 2006 at 06:48 PM (#1866104)
Well, as requested here's my new ballot. I've really altered the entire basis of my voting to help out prime candidates so people are moving all over. I'll include my new point totals. Ruth scores 2415 on the scale, Musial 1921, Max Carey 599.

1. Duke Snider - 866 - he didn't move
2. Cool Papa Bell - 776 (pvs 4)
3. Billy Pierce - 762 (off ballot)
4. Bob Johnson - 757 (10)
5. Early Wynn - 741 (6)
6. Bobby Doerr - 733 (9)
7. Quincy Trouppe - 731 (7)
8. Ralph Kiner - 719 (30)
9. Clark Griffith - 696 (2)
10. Biz Mackey - 690 (3)
11. Minnie Minoso - 690 (16) changed from 1 to 1.5 seasons credit
12. Tommy Bridges - 684 (20)
13. Joe Gordon - 683 (21)
14. Jake Beckley - 665 (15)
15. Chuck Klein - 661 (off ballot)
16-19. Bob Elliott, Rube Waddell, George Van Haltren, Gavy Cravath
20-23. Dizzy Trout, Willard Brown, Dobie Moore, Dick Redding
24-27. Fielder Jones, Vic Willis, Charlie Keller, Joe Sewell
28-32. Alejandro Oms, Gil Hodges, Edd Roush, George Sisler, Jimmy Ryan
33-35. Dom Dimaggio, Jose Mendez, Dizzy Dean
Leach dropped to 38, 568 pts - I'm looking at adjusting the deadball era up more but that will have to wait until later.
   79. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 17, 2006 at 06:51 PM (#1866106)
1 (3)Early Wynn--Overall WARP numbers similar to Red Ruffing's

2 (4)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

3 (5)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

4 (8)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

5 (6)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

6 (-)Duke Snider--Seemed similar to Ashburn, who rated 7th on my ballot when he became eligible

7 (11)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

8 (7)Ralph Kiner--7 straight years leading the league in homers. Obviously, the career length leaves something to be desired, but Kiner was very dominant for a considerable period.

9 (9)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

10 (10)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

11 (-)Billy Pierce--Is in the same career WARP ballpark as Bob Lemon, albeit with considerably less peak.

12 (12)Vern Stephens--Yes, his counting numbers were helped by the ballpark, and his teammates, but a shortstop with a career 120 OPS+ over 14 seasons is rare enough to merit ballot consideration.

13 (13)Rube Waddell--10 straight years being in the top 5 in strikeouts. 7 straight years leading the league in K/9. Career ERA+ of 134. Dominant.

14 (14)Burleigh Grimes--I like the peak/career combo, and he keeps popping back up as a name to include towards the bottom of the ballot.

15 (-)Joe Gordon--Another career gutted by the war. War truly is hell.

16. Dom Dimaggio
17. George Sisler
18. Johnny Sain
19. Urban Shocker
20. Eddie Cicotte

Top ten omissions: Sisler is right there. Mackey and Bell were deemed lesser than their contemporaries at time of eligibility, and have further been passed by later eligibles. Van Haltren and Griffith are mired in positional gluts, and Brown probably needs another look on my end.
   80. jimd Posted: February 17, 2006 at 11:15 PM (#1866516)
Ballot for 1970

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Almost done revising my system. Maybe next year.

1) D. SNIDER -- He may not be inner-circle but he is most-likely upper-half. He has no strong competition on this weak ballot.

2) B. DOERR -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Doerr belongs.

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's.

4) E. WYNN -- The good seasons are HOM-worthy and there are more than enough of them. One of the top pitchers of the 1950's.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close.

6) J. GORDON -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Gordon belongs also.

7) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

8) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

9) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

11) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy.

12) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters?

13) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus keeps him on ballot.

14) C. GRIFFITH -- Made it on.

15) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all (except Snider).

16) D. TROUT -- His rating surprised me.

17) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

18) C. P. BELL -- Hanging around.

19) D. DEAN -- Reevaluated his peak; he's almost ballot-worthy too.

20) J. BECKLEY -- Reevaluated his career; he's almost ballot-worthy too.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Joe Tinker, Dick Redding,
23-24) Hugh Duffy, Bob Johnson,
25-26) Dobie Moore, Wally Schang,
27-28) Bill Hutchison, Tommy Leach,
29-30) Willard Brown, Ralph Kiner,
   81. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 17, 2006 at 11:29 PM (#1866538)
Sorry about that guys. By 'changes everything' I meant enough for people to start re-submitting ballots with a higher/different evaluation of Minoso. I think that is extreme.
   82. Esteban Rivera Posted: February 17, 2006 at 11:47 PM (#1866572)
1970 Ballot:

1. Duke Snider – The fact that he hit like he did while being in centerfield boosts him to the top of the ballot.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

5. Early Wynn – Has enough peak seasons mixed into his long career to make my ballot.

6. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

7. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

8. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

9. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

10. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

11. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

14. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

15. Minnie Minoso – The new information given gives him enough credit to earn the final ballot spot.

16. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me

17. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

18. Joe Gordon
19. Cupid Childs
20. Bobby Doerr – All three are very close to each other. After adding and subtracting the different types of credit I use, this is the order they ended up in. All of them deserve eventual induction.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

George Van Haltren - Never the best in his time.

Willard Brown – Hanging in the 21- 25 range.
   83. sunnyday2 Posted: February 18, 2006 at 02:46 AM (#1866736)
1970

Duke Snider and Minnie Minoso go PHoM

1. Duke Snider (new, PHoM 1970)—an easy choice

2.. Dobie Moore (3 last week-1-1, PHoM 1942)—still the best peak available

3. George Sisler (4-2-3, PHoM 1938)
4. Pete Browning (5-3-4, PHoM 1961)
5. Ralph Kiner (6-4-5, PHoM 1964)--big peak hitters

6. Jose Mendez (8-6-7, PHoM 1957)
7. Rube Waddell (7-5-6, PHoM 1932)—big peak pitchers

8. Willard Brown (9-7-9, PHoM 1966
9. Minnie Minoso (new)—a couple guys with some career value. One extra year moves Minoso from 13 when I tried to post my ballot earlier this week to 9 now. Comps are Brown and Enos Slaughter, speaking from a peak/prime standpoint. A borderline choice, I'll agree, but rates more highly among his peers than the GVHs and Bob Johnsons of the world.

10. Dick Redding (11-11-13, PHoM 1968)—another guy with a nice career to go with nice peak

11. Tommy Bond (8-9-9, PHoM 1929)—wouldn’t make the same claim for Tommy, but he’s the biggest peak pitcher of them all

12. Joe Gordon (15-15-14)—at the head of the IF glut but virtually indistinguishable from Doerr, Doyle, Childs and Monroe

13. Addie Joss (10-8-10, PHoM 1967)—another big peak

(13a. Stan Hack)

14. Ed Williamson (13-9-11, PHoM 1924)—comps Jimmy Collins and Stan Hack

15. Charley Jones (x-10-12, PHoM 1921)—yet another of the big peak hitters

(15a. Earl Averill)

Drops out: Larry Doyle (14-13-15)

Deep backlog

16-20. Doyle, (Stovey), Duffy, Rixey, Dean, Keller
21-25. Wynn, Stephens, Trouppe, Cravath, Cicotte
26-30. Childs, Tiernan, Griffith, Roush, Oms

Required: Biz Mackey remains around #47, as I prefer Trouppe and Bresnahan. Rixey and Griffith are among my top 30. Van Haltren, Bell and Beckley--the peakless wonders—remain in consideration but below #50.

Newbies: Pierce is #3 among the newbies but not among my top 20 pitchers.
   84. dan b Posted: February 18, 2006 at 04:35 AM (#1866854)
1.Snider Clearly #1 by my reckoning.
2.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. The following are at or above the median:
3 year peak (non-consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Keller
5 year peak (consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Duffy, Berger, Keller
8 year peak (non-consecutive) – Duffy, Keller
10 year peak (consecutive) – Duffy, Burns
WS/162 – Keller, Chance, Berger, Rosen, Duffy, McGraw
Career – None
3.Griffith PHoM 1913. If we are going to be fair to all eras, then the 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in. 1890’s still underrepresented.
4.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
5.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. IMO, Koufax is a no-brainer. When comparing all the eligible high peak pitchers on this ballot to Sandy’s overpowering dominance from 1961-1966, Rube’s performance from 1902-1908 comes closest.
6.Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
7.Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Best WS/162 among 20th century players on this ballot. See Duffy comment above.
8.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
9.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
10.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
11.Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
12.Wynn 3rd best pitcher of the 50’s after Roberts and Spahn.
13.Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
14.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
·3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
·5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
·8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
·WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
·OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
·NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
·HoM Support – Roush forgotten; Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! :(
15.Minoso Will make PHoM before Ashburn
16.Bell PHoM 1968.
17.Cooper Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942.
18. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
19.Brown, Willard
20.Ashburn
21.C. Mays
22.Chance
23.Burns
24.Oms
25.Arlett
26.Berger
27.Doyle
28.Sisler
29.Gordon
30.Doerr
31.Willis
32.Van Haltren
33.Poles
127. Beckley Tip O’Neill will return to my ballot before I vote for The Peakless One.
   85. sunnyday2 Posted: February 18, 2006 at 07:27 AM (#1866955)
>I meant enough for people to start re-submitting ballots with a higher/different evaluation of Minoso. I think that is extreme.

Just to recap, the original suggestion was that we should re-eval. and re-submit our ballots for Billy Pierce. Is that also extreme?
   86. DavidFoss Posted: February 18, 2006 at 07:43 AM (#1866963)
Just to recap, the original suggestion was that we should re-eval. and re-submit our ballots for Billy Pierce. Is that also extreme?

The original suggestion was that a single voter -- who had admitted that he had found a math error in his own personal unpublished evaluation scheme -- should not wait until next year before fixing his ballot. That suggestion doesn't affect anyone except that voter.
   87. Kelly in SD Posted: February 18, 2006 at 10:09 AM (#1866994)
Things are still hectic for me, though I have kept up with the threads. I cut and pasted the ballot, so where needed please add Snider's name.

1970 Ballot

PHOM Inductees: Snider and Willard Brown

1. Duke Snider – PHOM 1970: Among retired CF, ranks behind Cobb, Speaker, DiMaggio, Hamilton, Charleston, Torriente, and even with Hines. Best peak on ballot. Second best prime. Top 5 career. 5 times one of the best 3 outfielders in baseball Over-qualified.

2. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901 - The weight of the evidence.

3. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906 - I give 2+ seasons credit for being blackballed. Among position players, by win shares, he ranks tied for 4th in 1878, 2nd in 1879, 6th in 1883, 1st in 1884, 3rd in 1885. Now add in 2 missing years in 1881 and 1882. Career OPS+ of 149.

4. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921 - The third best peak and prime. Has the best OPS+ among eligibles by 10 points, 162 to Keller’s 152. An All-Star by STATS 8 times and win shares 5 times. Among position players, he is 1st in 1882 in AA, 4th in 1883, 5th in 1884, 1st in 1885, 2nd in 1887, 5th in 1890 Players League.

5. Charlie Keller – PHOM 1957 - WWII credit for one season and one partial at his established level. Great peak and prime.
Only Pete Browning has a higher career OPS+ than Keller’s 152.
Was an on-base machine, with the 5th highest OBP among eligibles behind Musial, McGraw, Childs, and Roy Thomas. His .518 SLG is 7th.
Among position players in WS: 1939 -22-14th (rookie year). 1940 – 24 ws – 9th. 1941 – 32 ws – 4th. 1942 – 34 ws – 2nd. 1943 – 36 ws – 2nd. 1946 – 31 ws – 4th. For six years, only Dimaggio and Williams were better (and Musial, but that’s NL).

6. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1918 - Adjusted for season length, only Browning and Keller have a better peak, and only Browing and Charley Jones have a better prime. (And Musial and Berra)
An A+ outfielder for his career who played less than 50% of his games in center.
He was 2nd in 1890 PL. 1891 AA 3rd. 1892 NL 5th. 1893 NL 1st (tied). 1894 NL 1st. 1895 NL 11th. 1897 8th. 1898 13th.

7. Bucky Walters – PHOM 1958 - Best National League pitcher between Hubbell and Roberts/Spahn. This ranking is after I reduce his WWII efforts.
3 times best pitcher in NL and by a large amount each year. He missed by 1 win share in 1941 of leading the league 4 times.
Only 3 eligibles have a better peak. Has 10th highest prime. Only Dean has more Black Ink.
Faced tougher average opponents then any real candidate. Only Nap Rucker, Thorton Lee, and Eddie Smith faced tougher.

8. Quincy Troupe – PHOM 1960 - Long career catcher at a very high level. An All-star 23 different times. The productive phase of his career lasted longer then Mackey’s. 7 times with over 20 win shares is nothing to sneeze at from a catcher. I do not give credit for the year spent boxing, but I do for the War. The huge number of walks is a big plus for me.

9. Alejandro Ohms – PHOM 1964 - Big plus for my system is the 8 years of at least 25 win shares. While he doesn’t have the big peak that I like, his prime his fantastic.
His thread says everything I would say, but better.

10. Cupid Childs - PHOM 1932 - Childs was the best second basemen of the 1890s by a wide margin. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year of the decade. A key member of the great 1890s Clevelend teams.

11. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942 - Only Wynn has a higher career win share total. Tied with Waddell for best non-consecutive peak. Highest prime of any eligible pitcher. He ranks lower than other pitchers because I have a higher standard for earlier pitchers than post deadballers.
First in NL twice (1899, 1901).
Top 10 pitcher in 1902 (2nd), 1903 (9th), 1906 (2nd), 1907 (9th), 1908 (8th), 1909 (5th)

12. Jose Mendez- PHOM 1967: Big beneficiary of rereading his thread. Fantastic peak/prime. And did really well against top-of-the-line white teams. PLEASE REREAD HIS THREAD.

13. Willard Brown – PHOM 1970: I now believe he would have walked enough to be successful in the majors. OK peak, excellent prime, long career, plus war credit.

14. Tommy Leach - PHOM 1966 - I know Leach split time in centerfield along with third, but I see him as the most qualified 3rd baseman by far. 7 Gold Gloves by win shares. 5 times a win shares All-Star. Instrumental in the great Pittsburgh defenses of the first 15 years of the 20th century.
Rank in LG: 5 times top 5, 2 more top 10.

15. Dobie Moore – PHOM 1967: No infielder has such a great peak. I give 3 years credit for Army play. An all-star every year he was healthy.
Please review the information on his thread.
   88. Kelly in SD Posted: February 18, 2006 at 10:11 AM (#1866995)
16. Frank Chance:

17. George Burns – PHOM 1938

17a. Richie Ashburn:

18. Early Wynn – peak and prime are not fantastic, though better than Rixey and Ruffing. Long career so good totals. I have not been a fan of Rixey or Ruffing so I am not in a hurry to get Wynn on my ballot. I assume he will be voted in soon. I urge his voters to reconsider Grimes.

19. Burleigh Grimes – PHOM 1961

20. Ralph Kiner

Mackey: 24th on list. Peak and prime was not as high as I thought it would be. Poor second half of his career.

George Sisler: 28th: Prime is not high enough to balance the not-great career. Does anyone have his home-road splits? Sportsman’s Park was such a great hitters park. I see him as a better Jimmy Ryan. A great first half of a career, but not enough in the second half.

Griffith: About 31st. Did not have the big years that his contemporaries did. Maybe that is why he had a longer career, but he definitely lacks the big years of Young, Nichols, Rusie, or McGinnity.

George Van Haltren: About 25th. PHOM 1939: Lots of year with 25 win shares once you adjust for schedule length. Unfortunately, the 1890s were the best decade for outfielders to put up big numbers and there were too many others who put up bigger numbers for him to make the ballot.

Cool Papa Bell: About 33rd. He suffers from the same difficulties as Beckley, except he was quite a bit better. Long career, but no peak and a low prime.

Jake Beckley: Will never make my ballot. No peak. Did not dominate the period between great first basemen. Best in majors only 2 times. Best in league only 1 more time. If he was the best position player on the team, the team would be lucky to be mediocre. That is not a HoMer.

Dick Redding: About 21st on the list. I see him as the 6th best available pitcher. He has a great peak and a very good prime, but the “seasonal” total is a little weak and the career is middle of the pack. Would be happy to see him in the HoM.

Bobby Doerr: I think his defense is overrated. His offense is way overrated because of Fenway Park. Everyone on the team hit well in Fenway during his career. His home numbers have less impact than they would appear because everyone on the team hit well in Fenway. I prefer Gordon, Childs, Doyle, and Monroe. They all have better peaks and primes than Doerr, though by small margins.

Minnie Minoso: I give him 2+ years of NeL credit, but that still brings him to 5th among LF behind Jones, Keller, Burns, and Kiner. He is definitely in the consideration set. He is about 35th on my ballot.

Billy Pierce: My system gives bonuses for being an all-star and for being best in one’s respective league. Pierce earns bonuses 5 times for all-stars and 3 times for best pitcher. It is not enough to get him on the ballot. Neither his peak nor his prime are high enough for me. Among 1950s pitchers, I prefer Spahn, Roberts, Ford, Lemon, Wynn, and maybe Newcombe. He is on my radar. When I have some free time, I will do a Retrosheet look at his career. I am willing to be convinced that he deserves my vote, but that has not happened this year.

Pete Runnels: Not enough peak, prime, or career.
   89. Kelly in SD Posted: February 18, 2006 at 07:46 PM (#1867177)
I looked at Minoso's thread again and am now giving him more credit. This brings him almost up to Kiner. He is 23rd on the ballot.

Redding is now the 7th best pitcher with the addition of Wynn and has moved down the ballot to 25th.
   90. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 19, 2006 at 03:47 AM (#1867627)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Duke Snider-CF (n/e): One of the best from a great crop of center fielders from the fifties. His HoM case gets no argument from me. Best ML center fielder for 1953. Best NL center fielder for 1950 and 1956.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (3): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (n/e): I was worried about him for a while that he wouldn't make my ballot, but my full-press analysis finally put me at ease. Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

4) Alejandro Oms-CF (4): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

5) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (5): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (6): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (7): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) George Van Haltren-CF/P (8): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

9) Jake Beckley-1B (9): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

10) Joe Gordon-2B (10): Best second baseman of the 1940's; major oversight on my part. Best major league second baseman for 1940, 1942, 1943, and 1947. Best AL second baseman for 1939 and 1941.

11) Mickey Welch-P (11): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (13): Why Kell, but not Elliott? Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

14) Pete Browning-CF/LF (14): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

15) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (15): I'm comfortable enough with his MLEs to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league right fielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

Wynn, Mackey, Sisler, Griffith, Doerr, and Bell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   91. Ken Fischer Posted: February 19, 2006 at 07:21 PM (#1868206)
1970 Ballot

1-Duke Snider 352 WS
Duke may not have been the best…but he’s my favorite of the big three ‘50s NYC Center Fielders. When asked about being a Dodger in a documentary he refers to the team as the Brooklyn-Los Angeles Dodgers…being a California guy I like the politically correct reference! I saw him play in the latter days in LA…I wish I’d seen his prime.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

3-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

4-Early Wynn 309 WS
An outstanding pitcher even if he had to hang on for win # 300. Great years with the Indians in the 50s as Feller was fading.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

6-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years. I moved Dick up after taking another look at my ballot.

7-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

8-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

9-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of the most overlooked ballplayers in history…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

12-Gil Hodges 263 WS
Gil would be making big bucks in the AL if he was playing today. He would be a great DH/1B right-handed hitting slugger. He’s always been penalized for having his numbers from the 50s compared to other eras. It may take awhile but Gil will eventually be in the HOM.

13-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Minnie had one of the most interesting careers in baseball history. With a late start he still made 7 All-Star teams. His SB numbers would be off the chart if they ran more in the 50s. Some credit for Negro Leagues. He’ll probably make the other hall on February 27.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

On depth chart
…#22 Willard Brown…still studying him
…#41 Clark Griffiths…IMHO…5 to 10 pitchers of more value to their team available
…#51 George Sisler…see James on Sisler
   92. Andrew M Posted: February 19, 2006 at 09:38 PM (#1868303)
1970 Ballot

1. (new) Duke Snider. Excellent 5 year peak, more than 8200 plate appearances. Career OPS+ of 140. And he picked the right year to retire for HoM purposes.

2. (3) Dobie Moore. With a few years' credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

3. (4) Early Wynn. I don’t see much difference between him, Rixey, and Ruffing. He pitched forever and some of his career rate stats (ERA+, DERA, etc.) don’t look all that great, but at his best, basically 1950-56 and 1959, he was among the league leaders in IP and ERA each year. To my mind easily qualified for the HoM.

4. (5) Larry Doyle. Outstanding hitter (126 OPS+) for a middle infielder and the best position player on some very good Giant teams of the 00s and 10s. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems more in line with contemporary accounts than BP’s assessment.

5. (6) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.86 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His career isn’t long, but there is an argument that he should get some credit for pitching in the PCL in 1892 and 1893. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

6. (7) Edd Roush. One of the best players in the NL for a decade, which included a couple of MVP type seasons and a year in which he was arguably the best player on a team that won a World Series. I think Bill James has him ranked about right (15-CF).

7. (8) Geo. Van Haltren. At his best, I don’t think he was as good as the Roush, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

8. (9) George Sisler. I don’t give him much credit for his post-1922 career, but he was truly an outstanding player for almost a decade before that. To my mind the argument for him is about the same as that as for Medwick or Averill.

9. (10) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

10. (12) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, but also Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76. Had he pitched more innings per season, he probably would already have been elected—regardless of how troubled he may have been. As it was, his career was relatively short, but he did pitch almost 3,000 innings.

11. (13) Cool Papa Bell. I might be wrong about this guy. Long career in which he contributed many positive things (speed, fielding, lots of singles) to his teams that may not be reflected in his modest OPS+. Or maybe it is, I don’t know.

12. (14) Tommy Bridges. Not much of a workhorse—though he did finish in the top 10 in innings 5 times—and he couldn’t hit, but he did have six 140 ERA+ seasons in the 1930s and 40s American League.

13. (15) Joe Gordon. Another big-hitting middle IF. With reasonable war credit, Gordon seems to have a slightly better HoM argument than Doerr, Lazzeri, or Stephens, though what happened to him in 1946?

14. (new) Minnie Minoso. New information on his thread caused me to bump him from just off the ballot to just on. I could honestly see him anywhere between 7 and 30 on my ballot.

15. (new) Billy Pierce. I think comparisons to Lemon and Ferrell are apt, though he also seems similar to Clark Griffith in some ways. He’s neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade, with perhaps one year (1955) when there was no one better.

Next 5
16. Bob Johnson. OPS+ of 138 in over 8,000 PAs is very similar to the guy at the top of this ballot.
17 George J. Burns. Either Win Shares is picking up something that doesn’t exist or this guy is very underrated. During the 11 years he was a regular (1913-1923) no NL position player accumulated more total WS.
18. Quincy Trouppe. Best of the eligible catchers?
19. Ralph Kiner. 149 OPS+ in 6200 PAs hard to ignore.
20. Alejandro Oms. Looks very similar to Minoso to me.

Required disclosures:
Biz Mackey. I don’t see putting him ahead of Trouppe.
Bobby Doerr. I have him the fourth ranked 2B as I don’t think his peak was quite a good as the guys ahead of him. Currently #24.
Willard Brown. #29. I need to reconsider my initial assessment of him, but there is a lot of competition for OF spots.
   93. Jeff M Posted: February 19, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#1868389)
1970 Ballot

1. Mackey, Biz –My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him. Awfully good hitting catcher. I must have different numbers for Trouppe, because he doesn’t impress me. I don’t think it is an accident that he wasn’t even considered by the new HOF Negro Leagues project.

2. Snider, Duke – WARP evaluation is not particularly strong, which keeps him out of the top spot. Clearly a HoMer.

3. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

4. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

5. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

6. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

7. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

8. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

9. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

10. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

11. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

12. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not convinced it was quite HoM level.

13. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

14. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction.

15. Ryan, Jimmy

16. Pierce, Billy
17. Griffith, Clark
18. Dean, Dizzy
19. Welch, Mickey
20. Long, Herman


Required Disclosure(s):

Van Haltren, George – He’s #33 in my system. Death to George Van Haltren! Oh, wait. He’s already dead.

Bell, Cool Papa – Other than the legend, I cannot see anything that puts him in the elite of all time. I’ve got him as a .303/.346/.427 man, with good but not exceptional defense. He’s #42 in my system, neck and neck with Hack Wilson.

Doerr, Bobby – Just off the list by fractions of a point.
   94. Patrick W Posted: February 19, 2006 at 11:53 PM (#1868455)
I have Minoso somewhere between Keller and Bob Johnson in the OF rankings. There is not a great difference between these three, but there are many players vying for the back of the ballot. As close as he is to the ballot, a look ahead to the upcoming candidates suggests that it could take awhile for Minoso to appear on mine (credit given only for ’49-’50).

1. Early Wynn (3), Clev. – Wash. (A) SP (’41-’63) (1970) – By W3, Wynn has 8 seasons at 7+ wins, matching Snider; then the career advantage kicks in. Not a particularly tough decision.
2. Duke Snider (n/a), Bkn(N), CF (’47-’64) (1970) – Duke v. Doerr, however, is a tough call for me. Reduction of defensive credit makes it close to even, and then Duke gets a further nudge by peak credit.
3. Bobby Doerr (4), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) (1960) – Obviously a defense and war credit/debit choice, but his offense was both above league and positional averages and the advanced metrics have no question about how valuable a defender he was.
4. Willard Brown (5), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) (1966) – I have decided that the consensus is correct: Brown’s career trumps Oms’ peak advantage.
5. Alejandro Oms (6), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Maybe I could drop Oms a little more because the resume is so heavily non-US, but I won’t do that yet.
6. Biz Mackey (7), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) (1967)
7. Bucky Walters (8), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value.
8. Dizzy Trout (9), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
9. Billy Pierce (n/a), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) – Very similar to Dutch Leonard, but does just enough to start above him. Some metrics I have say he should also start ahead of Bucky and Dizzy, but each of them had the monster season that Pierce never quite achieved.
10. Joe Gordon (10), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) (1968) – Compares favorably to Doerr. Better bat, shorter career, lesser defender (though not according to Win Shares), more war credit. Weighing it all together, I think Doerr was more valuable. .
11. Dutch Leonard (11), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
12. Phil Rizzuto(12), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.
--. Larry Doby, Clev. (A), CF (’46-’59)
13. George Van Haltren (13), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
--. Stan Hack, Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) –
--. Joe Medwick, St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) –
14. Dom DiMaggio (14), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot.
15. Bob Johnson (15), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.

George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
Cool Papa Bell – Could be on the ballot, but many players can now say that

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   95. Adam Schafer Posted: February 19, 2006 at 11:53 PM (#1868458)
Snider appears to be a lock this year. It'll be interesting to see how Minoso does.

1. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

2. Duke Snider - He wasn't even the best CF in the city, just as Welch was never the best pitcher on his own team, but just as Welch was consistently good year in and year out, so was Snider.

3. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

4. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

5. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

6. Early Wynn - I'm not a strictly peak voter as others are, I'm all about career as long as there is some decent peak mixed in with it.

7. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman. Enough career to make my ballot.

8. Gavvy Cravath - Gavvy bursts onto my ballot this year. I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

9. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

10. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

11. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

12. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

13. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

14. George Van Haltren - Surely he'll get elected at some point.

15. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

16. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a lot more

17. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

18. Cool Papa Bell - creeps up a little bit to take over this position from Bresnahan

19. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

20. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.
   96. Trevor P. Posted: February 20, 2006 at 01:58 AM (#1868647)
1) Early Wynn (6). The realization that he's probably better than Eppa Rixey, combined with a slight reduction in the amount of credit I've been giving centrefielders, puts Early Wynn at the top of my 1970 ballot.
2) Duke Snider (--). This year's reference player: Bob Johnson! Snider is basically Bob Johnson playing CF without a war discount.
3) George Van Haltren (3). Consolidated league, long career, and a pretty decent late-career prime according to WARP1. And scads of win shares.
4) Jake Beckley (4). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite alot of value. So what if he wasn't necessarily the best player on his team? Players shouldn't be faulted for their teammates' performances, in my mind.
5) Quincy Trouppe (5). Better than Schang, with more in-season appearances.
6) Dick Redding (7). He's sure worked his way up the ballot. Not quite as durable as Wynn, but "Cannonball" threw more high-quality innings than Lemon.
7) Edd Roush (8). 110 WARP1 may be excessive, but the discount to WARP3 is overstated. Jumps up when compared to Ashburn.
8) Clark Griffith (9). Big jump for Griffith, as I was not adequately accounting for his play in the contracted NL of the 1890s.
9) Cupid Childs (10). Played 2B as well as Doerr, Gordon, et al. And did it during an era that was much more perilous for middle IF-ers.
10) Bob Elliott (10). Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Unfairly underrated by Win Shares.
11) Alejandro Oms (12). Another centerfielder, though he played more corner than Roush or Van Haltren.
12) Billy Pierce (--). Whether he was a better overall player than Bob Lemon is up for debate, but my initial study of Pierce definitely suggests he was a better pitcher. Defense-adjusted ERA and PRAA both seem to bear that assertion out. Alternatively, he's sort of like Bucky Walters without a war discount.
13) Wally Schang (13). Schang isn't that far behind contemporaries like Hartnett and Cochrane when it comes to playing time. 78.0 WARP1 is about one win per full season less than Cochrane.
14) George Sisler (15). Seven seasons of prime, plus eight more as an average 1B.
15) Biz Mackey (--). Back on again, after a year at #16. Long durable career. Knocks off Jimmy Ryan, who loses points in my slight re-evaluation of CF defense.

Minnie Minoso - The mistake corrected in his NeL stats brings him on par with Bob Johnson, around about #23. In fact, the only full time corner outfielder in my top twenty is Ralph Kiner.
Willard Brown - Right now a step behind Minoso and Johnson, so he's in the low 20s. I probably should revisit his thread, however.
Cool Papa Bell - A 100 OPS is hard to accept from anyone who's not a catcher or shortstop. Around #35.
Bobby Doerr - Also in the mid-twenties, arm-in-arm with Joe Gordon.
   97. Brent Posted: February 20, 2006 at 02:17 AM (#1868668)
Cool Papa Bell - A 100 OPS is hard to accept from anyone who's not a catcher or shortstop.

I suggest that you re-read his thread. The MLE estimate of 100 OPS+ covered just for a portion of his career, excluding his years in Mexico (which were among his best). Also, his career OPS+ was brought down by two or three poor seasons while he was learning to switch hit. I don't think Chris ever produced a definitive career estimate, but in post # 92 Chris wrote: "but I notice that, if these seasons [when he was learning to switch hit] were removed and his Mexican seasons added in, he would have a career OPS+ of 107-110 in 11000-11500 PA, which is a bit more than Max Carey's entire career, at (or a bit above) Carey's career OPS+."
   98. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: February 20, 2006 at 04:21 AM (#1868860)
1970 ballot:

1. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. By Bill James’s rankings, the 7th best centerfielder so far (including Stearnes in cf, James has him in lf). (eligible 1948, PHOM 1957)

2. Duke Snider: Very strong extended 9-year prime/peak. Even with reduced playing time, ’58 & ’59 weren’t so bad, either, especially considering he moved to a park that could hardly have been worse for him. Great player who didn’t age very well. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1970)

3. Early Wynn: The main comparisons are to Ruffing, Lyons and Grimes. I like all of them, so it’s no surprise I like Wynn, too. (eligible 1969, PHOM 1970)

4. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

5. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

6. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (eligible 1949, PHOM 1958)

7. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

8. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

9. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

10. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. Recent reevaluation of his extra credit moves him up a few spots. (eligible 1970)

11. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

12. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. (eligible 1961)

13. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley after Mackey & Pete Hill. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with at best marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson). (eligible 1943)

14. Clark Griffith: Hanging on. See him as the most deserving player left from the ‘90s. (eligible 1912, PHOM 1945)

15. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)



16. Bobby Doerr: Like Sewell, 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4. (eligible 1957)
17. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)
18. Pete Browning (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)
19. Pie Traynor (eligible 1941)
20. Billy Pierce (eligible 1970)
21. Waite Hoyt (eligible 1944)
22. Tommy Leach (eligible 1921)

Required comments:
George Van Haltren: I wasn’t that crazy about him in the ‘20s, and the field of candidates is much better and deeper now. Very solid performer, but no suggestion of greatness.
Jake Beckley: I was crazy about him in the ‘20s and he made my PHOM in 1926, I’ve cooled off on him since.
Bobby Doerr: On the cusp between on & off each year.
Willard Brown: Must have been a great bad-ball hitter. Why would anyone throw him a strike?
I can’t make up my mind about him. I’ll work on that.

New guy:
Billy Pierce: sort of falls into a muddle of marginal candidates like Cooper, Hoyt, Walters and a few others.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940)

HOM not PHOM: Carey, Ashburn, Slaughter, Vance, Averill, Beckwith, Ferrell, Kelley, Sheckard, Jennings, Pike, Pearce, Jackson.

PHOM not HOM: Welch, Grimes, Griffith, Waddell, Redding, Bresnahan, Mackey, Beckley, Sisler, Sewell, Browning, Duffy, Bell.
   99. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: February 20, 2006 at 07:35 AM (#1869051)
You know, weird things happen sometimes. Billy Pierce becomes eligible, and in trying to slot him in, I decide he's better than Walters but below Griffith. The problem is I had Walters ahead of Griffith (although none of them make the ballot anyway). Snider and Wynn make my PHoM.

1. Duke Snider (new) Clear #1. Career WS/WARP are the same as Ashburn, but in 1500 less PAs. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Early Wynn (3) Extremely durable pitcher who had a very solid prime. Yes, the ERA+ is weak, but that’s the only real flaw. Not a no-brainer, but clearly qualified by the standards we’ve set - compare him to Ruffing, for example, and he looks clearly better. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Tommy Leach (4) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. The 1900s aren't any better represented than any other era, and worse than some. Made my PHoM in 1940.

4. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Willard Brown (6) I can't say I'm completely certain of this ranking, with the questions about his walk rate and level of competition (although Gadfly's latest numbers help ease the concern). On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the OF below him on the ballot. Chris's analysis showed him with the best career numbers of the OF candidates he looked at, and the peak numbers may have been deflated by the missing war years. Made my PHoM in 1967.

6. Joe Sewell (7) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. For example, while I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). With one possible exception, clearly the best SS on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. Dobie Moore (8) The possible exception, because we honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

8. Quincy Trouppe (9) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

9. Dick Redding (10) His era is pretty well represented with pitchers, but I saw him as very close (though behind) Rixey. I like his career argument a little better than Mendez' peak one.

10. Cupid Childs (12) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

11. George Van Haltren (13) It may be the case that I just don’t want to move him ahead of Childs because only one is in my PHoM. OTOH, I didn’t make that choice easily, and I can’t say there’s been any major new evidence since then. Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy. I do find it hard to understand how anyone could have Beckley ahead.

(11A Red Ruffing)

12. Minnie Minoso (new) I think he's a tiny bit ahead of Medwick & Johnson among corner OF, but it's very hard to be sure. He doesn't really strike me as having any particular argument, except maybe not under-representing the 1950s.

(12A Joe Medwick)

13. Bobby Doerr (11) The difference between Doerr and Gordon basically comes down to 1)Doerr's extra season, and 2)WARPs downgrading of Gordon's defense in Cleveland. I'm not sure the second part is valid, but I don't know why it wouldn't be. In any case, the first part certainly is, so I'm keeping Doerr ahead although I narrowed the gap.

14. Bob Johnson (14) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.

(14A Richie Ashburn, 14B Max Carey)

15. Gavvy Cravath (15) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Like Rixey, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.

16. Bus Clarkson (16) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
17. Jake Beckley. (17) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
18. Alejandro Oms (18) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
19. Jose Mendez (19) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer.
20. Joe Gordon (23) I wanted to move him closer to Doerr, but this is the most I could justify.
21. Biz Mackey (20) I don’t really see him as induction-worthy, but maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
22. Cool Papa Bell (21) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
23. Phil Rizzuto (22) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
24. Clark Griffith (35) Still don't see him as much of a standout in his era, but he did compile a lot of good pitching.
(24A Sam Thompson, 24B Rube Foster)
25. Bob Elliott (24) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
26. Vern Stephens (26) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto
27. Charlie Keller (29) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
28. Ben Taylor (25) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
29. Billy Pierce (new) Definitely underrated by baseball history, but I just don't know if there's enough meat to the career, and he doesn't really have a peak argument per se.
(29A Hughie Jennings)
30. George Sisler (28) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.

31. Rube Waddell (29)
32. Roger Bresnahan
33. Tony Lazzeri
34. Ralph Kiner
35. Bucky Walters (27)
36. Bobby Veach
37. Charley Jones
38. Dave Bancroft
39. Burleigh Grimes
40. Bill Byrd
   100. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 20, 2006 at 02:13 PM (#1869167)
42 ballots tabulated so far. Still missing ballots from: Jim Sp, Eric C (?), Mike Webber, OCF (?), Chris Cobb (?), Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, the Commish, and RmC.

Since he didn't vote in the past five elections, Brad G has been removed from the list.
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