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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, March 13, 2006

1972 Ballot

Newbies: Robin Roberts, Sandy Koufax, Bob Friend, Junior Gilliam, Harvey Keunn, and Joe Adcock.

Returnees: Biz Mackey, Bobby Doerr, Willard Brown, Cool Papa Bell, George Sisler, Cannonball Dick Redding, George Van Haltren, and Joe Gordon.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 13, 2006 at 01:53 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. karlmagnus Posted: March 13, 2006 at 02:05 PM (#1896657)
Roberts below Beckley and Welch, who should have been elected decades ago, but still an easy HOM’er. Friend should have picked his teammates better, just off the bottom of consideration set. Gilliam’s a shorter career version of Fox, a tad better but a much shorter career (and no, no extra credit, he was only 24 when he reached the majors.) Adcock quite a long career, but durability issues. Kuenn not as good as Rocky. Koufax missed my initial cut, being below 200WS – unquestionably the most overrated player in history, will oscillate around the bottom of the ballot until the rest of you elect him.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. Robin Roberts. Not as good as Welch – fewer innings (4689), same ERA+ (113), fewer wins (286). In reality a great pitcher and an easy HOMer, but the group’s refusal to elect Beckley and Welch is causing a blockage.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5-4-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just below Wynn.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!
   2. karlmagnus Posted: March 13, 2006 at 02:06 PM (#1896658)
11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13-15-14-14-14-13-12-15-14-13) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

13. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Back off ballot after a few years just on.

14. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

15. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, although lots of UER. Back on ballot to replace Griffith after almost 40 years – he fell off it in 1934.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A) Sandy Koufax. Drysdale was probably better. 2324 IP @131 is beaten by both Joss (2327@141) and Waddell (2961@134.) His hitting was lousy too (OPS+-26, the lowest I’ve seen; Drysdale’s was 45, damn good for his era.) Only his W/L (165-87) and reputation get him as high as this.

17. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

18. Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

19. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

23. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.

24. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759
25. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
26. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
27. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
28. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
29. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
30. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
31. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Billy Pierce. Surprisngly good ERA+ in weaker league but not a Yankee. 3307 innings at 119 ERA+ 211-169 definitely better than Redding and Quinn, somewhere around Maglie.
34. Sal Maglie. At 175% of visible career he would have been 208-108, with a 126 ERA+ in 3015 innings. That puts him about here.
35. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
36. (N/A) Heinie Manush
37. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
38. Bob Elliott
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
45. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pye Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Joe Gordon.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Gil Hodges Significantly shorter career than Hooper/Ashburn, but a bit better. No war credit, I think. 1921 hits at 120 OPS+ TB+BB/PA .539, TB+BB/Outs .807
62. Jules Thomas.
63. Wilbur Cooper
64. Bruce Petway.
65. Jack Clements
66. Bill Monroe
67. Jose Mendez
68. Herb Pennock
69. Chief Bender
70. Ed Konetchy
71. Jesse Tannehill
72. Bobby Veach
73. Lave Cross
74. Tommy Leach.
75. Tom York
   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 13, 2006 at 02:07 PM (#1896661)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Robin Roberts-P (n/e) Combining peak, prime and career, Roberts is clearly the tops among the pitching candidates. Best NL pitcher for 1952, 1955, and 1956. Best ML pitcher for 1953 and very close in 1956.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Cupid Childs-2B (3): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.           

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

4) Joe Gordon-2B (4): Best second baseman of the 1940's; major oversight on my part. Best major league second baseman for 1940, 1942, 1943, and 1947. Best AL second baseman for 1939 and 1941.

5) Alejandro Oms-CF (5): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

6) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (6): Eric's new MLEs may give Brown that extra-added push. His HOF induction probably wont hurt, either.

7) Tony Mullane-P/OF (7): I'm officially the greatest FOTM now. :-) His unusual career is hard to evaluate, but I now think he's worthy. I also give him credit for the time he missed during the mid-1880s.

8) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (8): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

9) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (9): Why Kell, but not Elliott? Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

10) Pie Traynor-3B (10): Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

11) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (11): Not as high as '70, but still at a respectable position. Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Bobby Doerr-2B (13): As I goofed with Gordon for a while, I also goofed with Doerr. Best AL second baseman in 1946 and 1949. Best major league second baseman for 1948

14) Mickey Welch-P (14): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (15): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Mackey, Bell, Sisler, Van Haltren, and Redding all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   4. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: March 13, 2006 at 03:02 PM (#1896681)
Allow me to be the first to say: You all will be ####### retarded if you don't elect Koufax.

"But wait!" you argue. "Koufax's career winshares are below tons of candidates who we haven't elected! He doesn't deserve this."

An excellent point, but an ultimately false one. You elect Koufax for the following reasons:

1) He was the best pitcher alive for 3 seasons, perhaps 4 seasons. Some years, a couple of pitchers were better at preventing runs, but Koufax's performance was best supported by his peripherals. From 1963-1966, he's the best in the world.

2) As Bill James documented, his fantastic performance in clutch games, especially vis-a-vis Drysdale

3)The questionable effectiveness of the statistical measures in such an extreme run environment. What I mean by this is, Win Shares, WARP, etc... are all designed to work in a typical run environment throughout baseball history. Koufax pitched in one of the 2 most extreme environments post the deadball era. You better be damn sure the stats are adequately evaluating him, since they were almost certanly tested in a more normal setting.

4)The overwhelming consensus that Koufax was the best pitcher anyone had ever seen.

5) Respect for peak v. career; if you are a career guy, that's fine, but understand that Koufax clearly had one of the great 3 or 5 year peaks of all-time, especially accounting for the number of innings pitched.

6)Koufax is the first of the great 350+IP pitchers of the late-60's and early 70's you're going to deal with. That kind of performance has enormous value. Koufax affected the pennant race in a given season in a way that greater pitchers in other eras can only hope to imagine. Sure, you'll era adjust, but Babe Ruth was a more valuble hitter than Home Run Baker.

8)In fact, Koufax was thowing more innings than even his peers; he's among the vanguard in ushuring in the superhigh IP era. Compare, for instance, Dean Chance's 1964 to Koufax's 1965.

7) The ultimate point: No other pitcher combined Koufax's durability and effectiveness during his best 2 seasons.

Summary: Koufax was throwing many more innings than most of his peers in a season, at a higher level than his peers. The standard statistical meausures are potentially flawed in his extreme environment and need to be carefully evaluated. There's no inherent reason to favor career value players over peak value players, so that's an entirely arbitrary way to shade your "Hall of Merit". All of Koufax's peers thought he was the greatest pitcher they'd ever seen. Koufax's 3 and 5 year peaks put him comfortably in any HOF.
   5. Rusty Priske Posted: March 13, 2006 at 03:11 PM (#1896685)
PHoM: Robin Roberts, Bobby Doerr, Sam Streeter (Don't ask)

1. Willard Brown (3,3,4)

I flip flop on who is more underrated here: Brown or GVH.

2. Robin Roberts (new)

Easy elect.

3. George Van Haltren (2,2,3)

One day.

4. Biz Mackey (5,5,7)

This year?

5. Cool Papa Bell (4,7,6)

6. Jake Beckley (6,4,5)

7. Dobie Moore (7,10,9)

8. Mickey Welch (8,8,8)

Hobgoblin.

9. George Sisler (9,12,10)

10. Hugh Duffy (11,11,11)

11. Edd Roush (13,13,14)

12. Nellie Fox (12,x,x)

13. Tommy Leach (10,9,12)

14. Sandy Koufax (new)

15. Bobby Doerr (15,15,x)

16-20. Minoso, Trouppe, Childs, Redding, Ryan
21-25. Kiner, White, Smith, Streeter, Mullane
26-30. Strong, Gleason, Sewell, Elliott, Greene
   6. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 13, 2006 at 03:11 PM (#1896686)
There's no inherent reason to favor career value players over peak value players, so that's an entirely arbitrary way to shade your "Hall of Merit".

You do understand that your selection criteria is just as arbitrary, right?
   7. TomH Posted: March 13, 2006 at 03:13 PM (#1896687)
Grandma, there's no rule about the need to mention newbies, but Sandy K is the elephant in the room - might your ballot state that you didn't merely 'forget' him? :)
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 13, 2006 at 03:16 PM (#1896692)
Grandma, there's no rule about the need to mention newbies, but Sandy K is the elephant in the room - might your ballot state that you didn't merely 'forget' him? :)

I've stated my opinion of his candidacy on quite a few threads, so nobody should be uniformed as to where I stand in regard to him. I will point out, though, that he's not that far off my ballot. His peak does have a lot of weight.
   9. Rusty Priske Posted: March 13, 2006 at 03:17 PM (#1896694)
There's no inherent reason to favor career value players over peak value players

This is very arguable. I see the exact opposite.

Having said that, Koufax's peak was so important that I did give him a big bump. WIthout it, he doesn't even make the ballot.
   10. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: March 13, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#1896707)
You do understand that your selection criteria is just as arbitrary, right?


No, its not. Here are three lines of thought in that regard:

1)Why do players have long careers? That is to say, what distinguishes Player X, who plays for 20 seasons, from Player &, who plays for 10, if they reached the same peak?

More often than not, it's injury. Now, some injuries are a result of a congenital problem with the player (and, potentially, Koufax's fall into this category). But most injuries are periodic and, in large part, random. Would Mantle have a shorter career than Mays if he hadn't stepped on the drain? Would Garciaparra have tailed off so rapidly had he not made one awkward swing?

Because I don't like the idea of an arbitrary injury lightning bolt deciding a player's merit for me, I choose instead to focus on peak value. The shorter the window you examine, the less control the arbitrary hand of injury has upon your evaluation of a player. Obviously, a too-short period includes players with fluke seasons, but if a player maintains a level of play for 3 or 5 years, that's clearly his "true" level.

2)Any "HoF" wants to elect extraordinary players. I argue that players who play a "typical" number of seasons are not extraordinary. Players who show extreme longevity, the Spahns and Ryans and Mays's of the world, get bonus points for that uniqueness, and the players who are extreme in their greatness, the P. Martinezes, the Arky Vaughns and, yes the Koufaxs, get similar bonus points. Any reasonable HoF should include the players extraordinary for durability and extraordinary for excellence. Koufax, at his best 5 seasons, kicks the pants off of Robin Roberts-yet Roberts is a first balloter and Koufax doesn't get in?

3)Any HoF should contain all the players who are reasonable answers to the question: If you were making a all-time team to play in an imaginary league, who would you pick?

You wouldn't pick the one-season fluke guys, but you'd damn well pick the guys who were brilliant for 5 years, and you'd pick them over the guys who were very good for 10 years. You've got to include the peak greats, if only to ensure that the players who played baseball at the highest level are honored by an institution that purports to honor the best players ever.
----


I'm not saying that peak arguments are better than career. I'm saying that peak is equal to career (or rather, any distinction is arbitrary); and if you acknowledge that fact, you have to elect Koufax.
   11. DavidFoss Posted: March 13, 2006 at 04:13 PM (#1896739)
A-Rod, could you please move the discussion to the Koufax thread? I can see that discussion perhaps expanding into something lengthy and the ballot thread is not necessarily the place for that.
   12. Chris Cobb Posted: March 13, 2006 at 04:44 PM (#1896768)
As a moderate Koufax supporter, let me add that, historically, abuse of the electorate has proven counter-productive as a method for promoting the election of a favored candidate. See the history of Ferrell, Wes, for the relevant examples.
   13. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: March 13, 2006 at 05:03 PM (#1896787)
Fair enough; I just didn't want to be buried at post 99 under some discussion of the average win shares of Negro Leaguers from the 30's.
   14. DavidFoss Posted: March 13, 2006 at 05:26 PM (#1896808)
Fair enough; I just didn't want to be buried at post 99 under some discussion of the average win shares of Negro Leaguers from the 30's.

People do re-read this stuff and stuff in the Koufax thread will be a lot easier to find a month from now. (When I know something is in a ballot thread, it becomes increasingly difficult to remember which year that was as more time passes).
   15. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 13, 2006 at 05:44 PM (#1896828)
Fair enough; I just didn't want to be buried at post 99 under some discussion of the average win shares of Negro Leaguers from the 30's.

Not to hijak the discussion, but Screw, I think a lot of people in the room might be somewhat offended at this remark. I think several electors believe that our work on Negro League players is among the most important work we're doing here. If you believe aruging ad naseum about Sandy Koufax (as this group has on many occasions) is more important than trying to understand which players from an obscured and poorly understood time/place in baseball history, you might want to try that Hall of Fame thing they've got in Cooperstown.
   16. DL from MN Posted: March 13, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#1896849)
> A-Rod, could you please move the discussion to the Koufax thread?

Or possibly the ballot discussion thread?

Here's my packed-full-of-Bobs ballot:

1) Robin "Bob" Roberts - close to Spahn until you give Spahn war credit
2) Cool Papa Bell - I believe he was better than Ashburn and this is where I would have Ashburn.
3) Bob Doerr - One extra season of value better than Gordon
4) Bob Johnson - Best available corner outfielder, all prime career
5) Billy Pierce - Just a tick below Whitey Ford
6) Ralph Kiner - One more season of equivalent production would have him in an elect-me slot
7) Joe Gordon - Terrific infielder, war credit is key for his placement
8) Tommy Bridges - I think I've said enough about him this week but I still like him instead of Walters from that era
9) Biz Mackey - Most catchers who catch that well don't hit as well as he did
10) Minnie Minoso - top LF of the AL in the 50s
11) Sandy Koufax - amazing he makes the ballot with as few good years as he had. Extreme peak.
12) Quincy Trouppe - my numbers actually have him higher than Koufax but since those numbers are invented I slid him down a notch.
13) Jake Beckley - Long, solid prime is worth almost as much as an insane, short peak
14) Bob Elliott - This project is proving that good 3B are hard to find.
15) Chuck Klein - Big masher slots between Kiner and Willard Brown

16-19) Willard Brown, George Van Haltren, Gavy Cravath, Rube Waddell
20-23) Jose Mendez, Joe Sewell, Dizzy Trout, Fielder Jones
24-27) Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller, Alejandro Oms, Vic Willis
28-32) Edd Roush, George Sisler, Jimmy Ryan, Gil Hodges, Dick Redding
33-36) Dom DiMaggio, Bucky Walters, Phil Rizzuto, Tommy Leach
37) Bob Friend - Top off-ballot guy named Bob
   17. ronw Posted: March 13, 2006 at 06:41 PM (#1896895)
1972 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Robin Roberts My mom’s favorite Whiz Kid. Wow, after this election the 1950 Phils will tie the 1906 Cubs in HOMers, and the Phils HOMers each made it on their first ballot, while the two Cubbies took some time. I never would have dreamed that would be the case when this project started.

2. Dick Redding May be more similar to Spahn/Roberts than we realize.

3. Sandy Koufax I was all set to put him low, but then looked at the guys I have below, and I can’t see him as worse than them. I wrote this before looking at Screw's comments. His comments remind me of the brilliant Josh Gibson analysis a few years ago. For the lurkers who are upset with our selections, we have a procedure for convincing each other, and it is not through insulting the voters. Go to the player's individual thread or in the Ballot discussion thread. State your case and you might convince others, you might not. Most importantly, while you may believe that you are 100% right, chances are that others rightfully disagree with you. Accept that disagreement.

4. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor.

5. Larry Doyle We generally elect hitters of this caliber, no matter what the fielding. I think the 1910’s NL is getting penalized more than the 1950’s AL.

6. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT not really an issue.

7. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

8. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

9.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

10. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

11. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter. Was he Koufax though?

12. Willard Brown New numbers boosted him, not the HOF vote.

13. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

14. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

15. Cupid Childs With the rise of Doerr/Gordon, I really looked at Child’s hitting peak this week, and came away less impressed.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

16. Minnie Minoso

17. George Sisler

18. Cool Papa Bell

19. Ben Taylor

20. Alejandro Oms

Missing top 10

Bobby Doerr – Even with war credit, he seems surprisingly similar to Johnny Evers. (Evers – 198.1 BWS in 1784 G, Doerr 196.4 BWS in 1865 G.)

Joe Gordon – I do see him as very similar to Doerr, but both are off my ballot. (Gordon 172.8 BWS in 1566 G. Evers 18.0 BWS/162 G, Gordon 17.9 BWS/162G, Doerr 17.1 BWS/162G.)


Newbies

Bob Friend – In the Virgil Trucks, Dizzy Trout, Ned Garvin mold as pretty good pitchers who are unappreciated by history.

Junior Gilliam – Is this the last candidate with significant Negro League credit? Even with it, it doesn’t make Gilliam electable. Surprisingly one of the longest major league careers primarily at 2B, only Collins, Lajoie, Fox, Gehringer, Frisch, Hornsby, Schoendienst, McPhee, and Kid Gleason are ahead of Gilliam in ML games to date.

Harvey Kuenn – Finally a comparison to Ed McKean. Very good hitter in a realatively weak league, terrible fielder. If he could field and stayed at short, he might have been elected.

Joe Adcock – Seems to have a Phil Cavaretta type of value. Decent numbers over a good career length.
   18. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 13, 2006 at 07:16 PM (#1896955)
Is this the last candidate with significant Negro League credit?

Depends on what you mean by significant. I count the following as having at least a year of NgL credit:
-Banks
-Aaron
-Mays
-E Howard (he's due in the next couple years)
-G Crowe (did I miss him? Dude could hit.)

Other lesser lights
-Pancho Herrera?
-Sam Hairston?
   19. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 13, 2006 at 07:17 PM (#1896957)
a year of NgL credit

Sorry, I meant to say NgL play, not necessarily credit.
   20. yest Posted: March 13, 2006 at 09:38 PM (#1897135)
1972 ballot
Roberts, Koufax and Kuenn make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
7. Biz Mackey was (almost missed this one) another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
8. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
9. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
11. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
12. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
13. Robin Roberts subpar seasons in the second half of his career keep him down (makes my personal HoM this year)
14. Sandy Koufax 5 era titles (makes my personal HoM this year)
15. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
16. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
17. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
18. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
19. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
20. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (makes my personal HoM this year)
21. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
22. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
23. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
24. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
25. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
26. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
27. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
28. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
29. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
30. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
31. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
35. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Joe Gordon would need a real lot of war credit to even approach my ballot
Willard Brown, Dick Redding, and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Bobby Doerr as he now he falls slightly short and depending on how good his season was would put him over the top (thats all with out a discount for the seasons he played)
   21. Daryn Posted: March 13, 2006 at 09:50 PM (#1897159)
There's no inherent reason to favor career value players over peak value players.

Well, yes, in fact there is.

The HoM is an honour bestowed upon individuals after the completion of their career that attempts to honour their career. It is, IMHO, inherently a career based award. I have learned from my colleagues here that one way of measuring career is to give credit for a strong peak or a strong prime, but it still seems to me that what we are honouring here is the career. Others here disagree, as apparently do you, and I respect their right to have a different opinion. But I think they even acknowledge that we are honouring a career, they just view the parts of the career that are only average or even above average less meritorious than the parts that are excellent and often short.


Sorry for the clogging of the ballot thread. I'll have Koufax at 13.
   22. ronw Posted: March 13, 2006 at 11:50 PM (#1897337)
Is this the last candidate with significant Negro League credit?

Depends on what you mean by significant.


By significant, I mean:

1. does a HOM voter say, when seeing the player, the major league career isn't enough, is there anything else I should consider? and
2. does the HOM voter find anything of significance worth considering.

We wouldn't ask question #1 for Aaron and Mays, and probably Banks, and I don't think we find anything of significance for any of Aaron, Mays, Banks and Howard.

Finally, aren't Crowe, Herrera and Hairston eligible by now?
   23. Jeff M Posted: March 14, 2006 at 02:40 AM (#1897460)
1972 Ballot

1. Roberts, Robin – He’s no Warren Spahn, but he’s an easy #1.

2. Mackey, Biz –My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher. I must have different numbers for Trouppe, because he doesn’t impress me. I don’t think it is an accident that he wasn’t even considered by the new HOF Negro Leagues project.

3. Koufax, Sandy – I use a mix of career and peak, but his peak was so good, he finishes high on the ballot. Regardless of the numbers, we’re talking here about a guy who nearly universally is rated by fans and hitters as one of the best to ever take the mound.

4. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

5. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

6. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson.

7. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

8. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

9. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

10. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

11. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

12. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

13. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not convinced it was quite HoM level.

14. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

15. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction.

16. Ryan, Jimmy – Still better than Van Haltren.

Required Disclosure(s):

Van Haltren, George – He’s #33 in my system.

Bell, Cool Papa – Other than the legend, I cannot see anything that puts him in the elite of all time. I’ve got him as a .303/.346/.427 man, with good but not exceptional defense. He’s #42 in my system, neck and neck with Hack Wilson.

Doerr, Bobby – Just off the list by fractions of a point, at #23.

Redding, Dick – Not even part of my consideration set, and my consideration set has 97 members.
   24. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 14, 2006 at 03:19 AM (#1897491)
Regardless of the numbers, we’re talking here about a guy who nearly universally is rated by fans and hitters as one of the best to ever take the mound.

I assume many fans and hitters think that the best hitters for average played during the 1920s and 1930s, too. ;-)
   25. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: March 14, 2006 at 04:48 AM (#1897670)
It's been a while since I've voted, but I finally think I have a handle on my ballot. Basically, I try to approach this exercise as if I am picking a 25-man roster. What this means is that I have positional quotas: 5 OF, 3 CI, 3 MI, 2 C, 2 UT, 10 P. I am a peak/prime voter for hitters using Win Shares. For pitchers, it's a bit trickier. To start, I look at the careers of the eligible pitchers and compare them to the pitchers in the HOM. Bob Lemon is my personal in/out line -- a pitcher has to be better than Lemon to get a place on my ballot. Lemon and the above-average, long-career family of Faber, Keefe, Ruffing and Rixey represent the bottom rung of legitimate HOM pitchers. For Negro Leaguers, I consider the posted stats and MLEs, as well as the subjective opinions of the players. Also, I give full credit to players who missed time because of World War II. Also, there are a lot a "matched pairs" on my ballot: Mendez/Redding, Fox/Leach, Pierce/Leonard.

1. Robin Roberts - Easy HOM pick as a pitcher. Ranks tenth all-time among major league pitchers to date.
2. Charlie Keller - With war credit, "King Kong" had six straight MVP-caliber seasons with two more All-Star level seasons to start his career. Ranks seventh all-time among major league left fielders to date, which puts him ahead of nine other HOMers at the position.
3. Sandy Koufax - Comparable to Ed Walsh for career shape and high peak. Ranks around the middle of the group of major league HOM pitchers.
4. Minnie Minoso - Ranks this high because of greater confidence in his career record than the other Negro Leaguers.
5. Dobie Moore - Absolute monster at shortstop. Value comparable to Hughie Jennings, who I liked, but better.

6. Jose Mendez - Mendez and Redding are certifiable HOMers, though I like Mendez's peak a bit more.
7. Dick Redding - Gets bumped up a bit based on subjective opinion, but still a strong candidate.
8. Quincy Trouppe - Love, love, love the MLEs. A catcher who could absolutely rake.
9. Willard Brown - He gets bumped down to this spot because his lack of plate discipline makes projecting career value a bit uncertain.
10. Monte Irvin - I'm cheating here by considering Irvin as a corner infielder, but the talent pool of eligibles is so weak at 1B/3B. Solid peak/prime guy who holds down the middle of the ballot.

11. Cool Papa Bell - MLEs and subjective opinion are totally divergent. I just couldn't imagine leaving him off of the ballot.
12. Nellie Fox - Very closely linked to Leach in terms of value. Both players are underrated by the electorate because they were not eye-popping in any one facet of the game. Edge goes to Fox because of his peak seasons.
13. Tommy Leach - Criminally underrated by the electorate. Sixth-greatest major league third baseman of all-time to date.
14. Biz Mackey - As high as I can place him given his spotty hitting record.
15. Billy Pierce - Pierce and Leonard are very, very similar. I have them just above Faber, Keefe, Ruffing and Rixey.

16. Dutch Leonard - HOM-quality, but gets bumped by the last-minute inclusion of Irvin.
17. Joe Gordon - Off by a hair.
18. Alejandro Oms
19. Tommy Bridges
20. Hugh Duffy

21. Ralph Kiner
22. Rube Waddell
23. Lefty Gomez
24. Dizzy Trout
25. George Sisler - Peak is hugely overrated and didn't really do much with the stick compared to the other greats at the position. Only ranks this high because my team needs a first baseman. (My system has him just behind Albert Pujols.)

Other contenders:
Bobby Doerr - Not really close to making my "team." He'd probably be in the bottom 10 percent of the HOM if he ever got voted in. Closer to Doyle and Childs than he is to Gordon.
George Van Haltren - In an OF backlog with Roush, Cravath, Berger and Veach.
   26. DavidFoss Posted: March 14, 2006 at 05:01 AM (#1897719)
10. Monte Irvin - I'm cheating here by considering Irvin as a corner infielder, but the talent pool of eligibles is so weak at 1B/3B. Solid peak/prime guy who holds down the middle of the ballot.

Monte Irvin is in the HOM. Does that imply that Dutch makes your ballot?

Welcome back!
   27. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: March 14, 2006 at 05:35 AM (#1897802)
Gah....I'm terribly sorry. Mover everyone up a spot, puuting Dutch at 15.

Al Rosen is 25th.
   28. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: March 14, 2006 at 09:36 AM (#1898107)
Also, a comment on my ballot:

Generally, I consider everyone in my top 15 to be worthy of the HOM; spots 16-20 represent the in/out line.
   29. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 14, 2006 at 02:51 PM (#1898171)
Howard probably has a combo of NgL and MiL and war credit worth looking into. That combo could move him up onto some people's ballots if it's enough. Crowe, Hairston, Herrara probably not, but I figured they at least were worth mentioning in passing.
   30. karlmagnus Posted: March 14, 2006 at 03:04 PM (#1898181)
I've just looked at Howard; he's close to the hitting quality I look for in catchers but not quite there, and if his age is correct, a couple more seasons at the beginning of his career wouldn't get him the extra "long career" points to overcome this (war credit is Korea, right, not WW2?) However, looking at his career path he may have rounded his age down a year or two, which would make a big difference -- are we absolutely sure his published age is correct? If he was really 28 when he started in the ML, it would explain his creakiness when paying for the '67 Red Sox, and make him a pretty plauisble HOM candidate. (Red Sox cap if elected, right -- that's where he got by far his most distinguished championship!)
   31. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 14, 2006 at 03:14 PM (#1898186)
If he was really 28 when he started in the ML, it would explain his creakiness when paying for the '67 Red Sox, and make him a pretty plauisble HOM candidate. (Red Sox cap if elected, right -- that's where he got by far his most distinguished championship!)

Definitely, karlmagnus. Those other Yankee championships were minor league compared to the Impossible Dream team that swept the Cardinals in '67.

</facetiousness> :-)
   32. Michael Bass Posted: March 14, 2006 at 03:48 PM (#1898210)
1. Robin Roberts - Not as good as Spahn of course, didn't have the prime/career, but great peak and an obvious #1.
2. Dobie Moore - Hughie-lite, a monster player for not as short as you might think.
3. Jose Mendez - Ed Walsh-lite, probably more criminally underrated than Moore, because his comp, unlike Moore's comp, sailed in.
4. Bobby Doerr - His fielding is what pushes him over the edge...incredible with the leather, plenty good with the stick. Lots of prime, Sewell+.
5. Joe Sewell - The ultimate all-prime career.
6. Bucky Walters - I am about alone on Bucky, but he has the Faber career shape going for him (couple huge years with a long enough career), and I liked Faber.
7. Willard Brown - All the man did was hit; I think he's better than Suttles, who had similar OBP issues, high SLG, but was much less valuable defensively than Brown.
8. Joe Gordon - As good as Doerr with the stick, not as much with the glove. Flaming out early didn't help, but still a great 2B.
9. Minnie Minoso - Moves up quite a bit with the new MLEs. Are these new numbers a huge change in his case? Not really...but everyone at this point in the ballot is clumped together, and 2 more prime years does nothing but help.
10. Sandy Koufax - His peak wasn't as high as you'd think or as long as you'd think (it's 3 years, not 5). Still, it was high and long enough for here, given an appropriate bonus for his post-season efforts.
11. Quincy Trouppe - I'm willing to look at him again, but I see all positives from his case, even if he wasn't fabulous with the glove (no evidence he was anything worse than average, though).
12. George Sisler - I only hope Medwick's induction means good things for Sisler's candidacy, because they have similar career shapes, and Sisler is clearly better, IMO.
13. Bob Johnson - Sewell-esque career, though as a corner OF vs. an infielder, thus the difference in their placements.
14. Dick Redding - I don't see the evidence of a super-long career or a super-high peak, but I see more than enough evidence of a long career and a very good peak.
15. Fred Dunlap - One of the 5 best players in baseball for 6 out of 7 years. I'd take him over quite a few people currently in the HOM.

16. Pete Browning - Fielding questions, AA questions are what keep him this low. The man could still hit.
17. Biz Mackey - I think he had a great prime, between his solid hitting and amazing defense. His career essentially ends with his prime, which holds him down this low.
18. Billy Pierce - A little better (less peak, more prime) than Dizzy Trout. As compared to Walters, the peak really hurts him (and the prime is not much better; the career obviously is).

19. Fielder Jones
20. Dizzy Trout
21. Bob Elliot
22. Urban Shocker

23-25: Monroe, Rizzuto, Oms
26-30: Bond, Luque, Van Haltren, Matlock, Williamson
31-35: D. Dimaggio, Uhle, Grimes, Scales, Kiner
36-40: B. Taylor, Lundy, King, Veach, Buffinton
41-45: Poles. Harder, Dean, H. Smith, Mays
46-50: Clift, Childs, Bartell, Klein, Cross


Vargas - I still have zero feel for him. I suspect he would fit into my top 50, but I don't feel I have the numbers at all with which to make an accurate ranking of him. Is there more discussion yet aside from the one post in his thread? (Leaving this on my ballot till I get some more information, dammit! :D )

Mackey - #17. See above.

GVH - #28. Best 90s hitter remaining, not quite enough peak to make my ballot, especially considering that the 90s were not packed with inner circle guys, unlike the era immediately preceeding.

Bell, Beckley - Off ballot. No peak, not even much prime. With Bell, I'm open to a reinterpretation of his numbers, but the numbers given right now don't do anything for me.

Kiner - #35. His defense was bad enough that it kept his peak down. And it wasn't as long as Heilmann's, so that leaves him here.
   33. Adam Schafer Posted: March 14, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#1898321)
Kiner and Koufax just don't cut it for me. I have to admit, OUTSTANDING peak, but too short
lived of a peak for me to personally consider them HOF or HOM material. Koufax is
admittedly better than Dizzy Dean, but still not for me. The peak was incredible enough
that he would probably crack my top 35 or 40.

1. Robin Roberts - I LOVE seeing him atop my ballot. I've always really liked Robin's
career and peak. And I'm not even "that" much of a peak guy.

2. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins
were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I
guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games.
Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the
same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all
major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of
the best over and over.

3. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

4. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

5. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman. Enough career to make my ballot.

6. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

7. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in,
but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

8. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

9. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

10. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in
Batting Average.

11. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more
stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has
enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

12. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

13. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a
lot more

14. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I
didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

15. Cool Papa Bell - creeps up a little bit to take over this position from Bresnahan

16. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I
didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of
room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

17. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

18. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

19. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

20. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one
with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit
for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!
   34. DanG Posted: March 14, 2006 at 08:31 PM (#1898616)
Well, better early than never. My #1 and #2 were elected. Roberts and Koufax are new pitching candidates in 1972; Gilliam may draw some interest as well. In 1973, Whitey Ford tries to show how he is better than the Pierce/Newcombe class of pitchers. Mantle and Mathews join the HoM in 1974.

1) Robert Roberts – Easy #1, top 30 pitcher all-time.

2) Sandy Koufax – One of the most overrated players in history. Having said that, you don’t need to be superman to take the second spot on this ballot. The NBJHBA has him #51; the Baseball Survivor project had him #75,…he’s almost universally ranked among the top 100 all-time. You’re going to try and convince me he isn’t a HoMer?

3) George Van Haltren (3,4,4) – As the ballot thins out he climbs up again. Now in his 64th year eligible. His day will come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4) Tommy Leach (4,5,5) – Still in danger of Lost Cause status, he slipped out of the top 30 for the first time since 1958. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

5) George Sisler (5,6,6) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

6) Cool Papa Bell (6,7,7) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Moving up.

7) Edd Roush (7,8,9) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he held his ground again last year. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

8) Minnie Minoso (8,9,ne) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

9) Biz Mackey (9,10,10) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he may be the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

10) Roger Bresnahan (10,11,11) – Only about eight voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

11) Jimmy Ryan (11,12,12) – As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings. To those 15 voters who had GVH in their top nine last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes. Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

12) Bobby Doerr (12,13,13) – Consensus of ratings consulted puts him ahead of Gordon. Doerr over Childs; similar peaks and hitting, but Doerr was a much better glove and had a longer prime. Players with 1600 games at second base, 1876-1959:

1—2650 E. Collins
2—2209 C. Gehringer
3—2126 B. McPhee
4—2035 N. Lajoie
5—1852 B. Doerr
6—1813 B. Herman
7—1775 F. Frisch
8—1735 J. Evers
9—1728 L. Doyle
10-1719 R. Schoendienst
11-1687 D. Pratt

13) Jake Beckley (13,14,14) - Back, for awhile at least. He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

14) Wally Schang (14,15,15) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

15) Joe Gordon – New to my ballot. I have him with an even 300 career win shares, including credit for WW2 and adjusted to 162-game seasons.
   35. Daryn Posted: March 14, 2006 at 09:18 PM (#1898689)
I have Doerr at 22, right behind Gordon at 21. Brown is at 29. Only the top 10 or 11 on this ballot would make my own Smaller Hall. New eligibles in bold.

1. Cool Papa Bell – It seems likely he would have exceeded 3000 hits with tremendous speed and great defense in a key position. The appearance of Snider in 1970 made me reassess Bell in comparison to the 300 game winners. Bell came out on top.

2. Robin Roberts – I think he is just better than Welch and may be better than Bell. It is (Bell v. Roberts) like comparing apples and oranges in more ways than one.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Grimes at 4 and Griffith at 13, which results in 7 pitchers on my ballot. Grimes is among the top 50 all-time in Pitching Win Shares. Just in case you are wondering, it does feel funny having Grimes ahead of Koufax, but it is just reflective of my notion of what the HoM ought to honour.

5. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving.

6. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me. Nice to see him crack our top-10.

7. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (15) or Schang (28). Hopefully, this is the last time he's on my ballot.

8. Nellie Fox -- he falls somewhere between here and 16 on my ballot. I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position. His 2100 singles are almost exactly the same number Sisler hit.

9. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+. Definitely, IMO, more qualified tham Koufax due to the longer prime and still very high peak.

11. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

12. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Sandy Koufax — The World Series performances (1965 must have been fun to watch) and the fact that he crammed all this goodness into 6 years puts him slightly ahead of Joss. I completely agree with Rusty Priske – the HoM is a career achievement, but there are very rare careers that may deserve a bump up like Sandy’s.

14. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. It was a hard to decision to place Koufax relative to Joss.

15. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.
   36. DL from MN Posted: March 15, 2006 at 12:43 AM (#1898892)
> not much of a spread between Grimes at 4 and Griffith at 13

Koufax was at 13
   37. sunnyday2 Posted: March 15, 2006 at 01:08 AM (#1898912)
Daryn, yes, I saw Sandy 2-hit the Twins in the 7th game in '65 in person at the old Met. I saw the Twins knock him out of the box in game 2 (on TV) too. He was a pretty good pitcher.
   38. Rick A. Posted: March 15, 2006 at 01:27 AM (#1898923)
Strange not having to write why Griffith isn't on my ballot anymore.

PHOM
Robin Roberts
Sandy Koufax
Bucky Walters
Wow, three pitchers this year! And I was starting to worry that my PHOM was short on pitchers.

1972 Ballot
1.Robin Roberts – Elected PHOM in 1972
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Sandy Koufax – Ultimate peak pitcher. Tough candidate to evaluate. Elected PHOM in 1972.
7.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
8.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
9.Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
10.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
11.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
12.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
13.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information. Elected PHOM in 1966.
14.Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
15.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.

Required Disclosures
Bell and Sisler Just off the ballot
Gordon In the mid 30's
Doerr Not as impressed. Agree that he's not as good as Sewell
Van Haltren Now that Griffith is finally elected, when will you guys finally elect VH so I don't have to write this anymore ;-)

Off the ballot
16-20 Walters,Bresnahan,Dean,Minoso,Monroe
21-25 Leach,Bell,Oms,Waddell,Mays
26-30 Matlock,Sisler,Roush,Johnson,McGraw
31-35 Cravath,Fox,Gordon,H Smith,Elliott
36-40 Trouppe,Doyle,F Jones,Easter,Poles
41-45 W Cooper,Tiernan,Winters,Rosen,Stephens
46-50 Bond,Schang,Rizzuto,A Cooper,Van Haltren
   39. Daryn Posted: March 15, 2006 at 02:09 AM (#1898954)
Daryn, yes, I saw Sandy 2-hit the Twins in the 7th game in '65 in person at the old Met. I saw the Twins knock him out of the box in game 2 (on TV) too. He was a pretty good pitcher.


I expect he was -- I won't be shedding a tear when he ekes into our Hall on the first ballot. Growing up in a Jewish baseball loving family, I was raised on stories about Koufax and Greenberg. And Adam Stern. :)

And in my Grimes comment replace "Griffith at 13" with "Joss at 14".
   40. Rob_Wood Posted: March 15, 2006 at 07:06 AM (#1899183)
1972 ballot:

1. Robin Roberts - by far best of this ballot; underrated by history
2. Jake Beckley - i luv the career
3. George Van Haltren - very good 1890s CF
4. Bobby Doerr - great fielder and very good hitter too
5. Joe Gordon - a smidge behind Doerr
6. Bob Johnson - a very good career, severely underrated
7. Sandy Koufax - here he belongs tho not for long
8. Willard Brown - could be much higher
9. Ralph Kiner - not enuf career but a star nonetheless
10. Cupid Childs - star second baseman from the 1890s
11. Nellie Fox - ballot worthy but not overwhelming
12. Bob Elliott - unheralded third baseman outside our living memory
13. George Sisler - i still think he belongs on our ballots
14. Dobie Moore - great negro leaguer
15. Cool Papa Bell - makes my ballot for first time

My next 5 are probably Tommy Bridges, Joe Sewell, Edd Roush, Tommy Leach, and Pie Traynor.

Not voting for Biz Mackey (I just don't see it) and Dick Redding (probably around 25).
   41. Sean Gilman Posted: March 15, 2006 at 09:41 AM (#1899228)
1972

1. Robin Roberts (-)--He’s good.

2. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares (plus a little war credit). According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

5. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

6. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

7. George Sisler (8)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

8. Sandy Koufax (-)--Might be the hardest player for me to rank so far, but I’m happy putting his bizarre peak/career combination right about here.

9. Cool Papa Bell (9)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

10. Hugh Duffy (10)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

11. George Van Haltren (11)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

12. Jose Mendez (22)--Koufax forces a reevaluation of short career/high peak players. Subsequently, Mendez, Walters, Berger and Redding move up my ballot, consistent with how I’d moved Kiner up a couple years ago.

13. Carl Mays (13)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

14. Biz Mackey (14)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage. (1968)

15. Willard Brown (15)--The most anonymous player on my ballot.

16. Joe Sewell (16)
17. Edd Roush (17)
18. Minnie Minoso (19)
19. Alejandro Oms (18)
20. Ralph Kiner (20)
21. Nellie Fox (-)
22. Quincy Trouppe (21)
23. Bucky Walters (30)
24. Wally Berger (29)
25. Dick Redding (31)
26. Ed Williamson (26)
27. Vern Stephens (23)
28. Roger Bresnahan (24)
29. Bob Elliott (25)
30. Bobby Doerr (27)
   42. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 15, 2006 at 12:58 PM (#1899271)
Hey guys, just an FYI - I'm heading out of town for a few days, not sure how often I'll be able to check in - this is the annual March Madness get together for me and my college buddies . . . 12th year in a row we've done this - and this year a few we haven't seen in years will be showing up, so it should be fun.

Between the festivities, I'll try to check in, but I can't be sure how often that'll be. I'll definitely have a ballot posted sometime on Monday though.

If any of you are going to be in the Harrisburg, PA area and want to try to meet up at one of the watering holes some point, let me know.
   43. Howie Menckel Posted: March 15, 2006 at 01:20 PM (#1899273)
Funny, I was just in Harrisburg last week for work. First night I ever stayed there, too.
   44. TomH Posted: March 15, 2006 at 01:49 PM (#1899279)
1972 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

While I am not a peak voter, since it is career value that wins pennants, I have been a bit more friendly toward peak pitchers than hitters, especially toward those who showed how much a peak pitcher can dominate in the post-season. Koufax’s peak/prime, being in the 'surreal' range, gets a far larger bonus than most others. I don’t have to re-vamp my entire system merely to get him where he ‘belongs’, thankfully.

I have re-considered this week and dropped Joe Sewell 5 places, when I could not convince myself that he was any more valuable than Joe Gordon, and barely better than Doerr. Both 1940s 2Bmen also get a bit more war credit than previously.

1-Robin Roberts {new}
Easy pick.
2-Cool Papa Bell (4) [6]
The basestealing of Coleman/Henderson with the CF ability and career length of Mays/Speaker. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer. This is the highest he has been on my ballot.
3-George Van Haltren (5) [9]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
4-Bucky Walters (6) [22]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
5-Sandy Koufax {new}
Wow, are my teeth gritting when I put him here and not #1 or #2. But it took unusual (for me) bonuses for peak/pennant/World Series just to get him here in my career-centric system.
6-Joe Gordon (8) [10]
Nudges out contemp Doerr; mostly on close pennant races won vs. lost. Super prime.
7-John McGraw (7) [38]
2nd in RCAP among ALL third basemen for MLB’s first 100 years. And, the HoM is short of 3Bmen. And short of 1890s infielders. And he was a brilliant tactician. Look deeply into my eyes while I chant “vote for mugsy….vote for mugsy…”
8-Willard Brown (9) [5]
Great slugger and new HoF member.
9-Joe Sewell (3) [18]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP, AND very good defense. We will ignore Alan Trammell?
10-Biz Mackey (10) [3]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
11-Billy Pierce (11) [21]
Similar to Bucky Walters. Good value out of the bullpen helps him some.
12-Minnie Minoso (12) [14]
Looks a lot like Bob Johnson. But a teensy bit better.
13-Frank Chance (13) [51]
Y’all know how I feel.
14-Jake Beckley (14) [15]
Fine career.
15-Bobby Doerr (off) [4]
Welcome to the hallowed Hanrahanian ballot, Bobby.

.......
16 R Kiner - Great prime. A few penalty points for being in B. Rickey’s doghouse.
17 B Johnson – very good long prime
18 G Sisler – great prime; almost Kiner
19-20 T Leach, C Childs
21-23 J Mendez, B Monroe, R Bresnahan
24-27 P Traynor, A Oms, P Rizztuo, D Moore
28-30 P Browning, M Welch, W Schang
Others near the ballot:
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Don Newcombe … Great prime. Less disastrous post-season results sure would help
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher…for a while
Dick Redding …could be #3, could be #99. Same with Luke Easter. Same with….
…Gavy Cravath! … might belong also, but it’s real, real hard to tell
   45. Howie Menckel Posted: March 15, 2006 at 02:38 PM (#1899301)
1972 ballot, our 75th (what anniversary is that?)
I continue to be convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. ROBIN ROBERTS - Top 5 in IP 10 times - the same number of times he cleared 120 ERA+. Unusually high combo of workhorse and thoroughbred, underrated by history.
2. SANDY KOUFAX - We're almost unanimous in agreeing that he is one of the most overrated players in history. BUT his 1966 swan song is one for the ages; 1963-65 are monster years; and 1961-62 are major pluses. A little better than Hughie Jennings for a little longer at a little harder position to do it from. It all adds up for Koufax to just nose out the rest here. I had Lemon mid-ballot and now have Pierce there; Koufax's career outshines both.
3. JAKE BECKLEY - It should be his time soon, but I've seen for a while now that a lot of our voters will never ever vote for him.
His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Some parallels to Rixey, who is now a HOMer.

4. COOL PAPA BELL - Continues a steady climb on my ballot, and this is while conceding that his park and his steals led him to be a bit overrated. But discounting the myth a bit doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career. I love our MLEs, but in this case I think they are keeping out a definite HOMer.
5. JOE GORDON - Continues to move up my ballot as well, this year leapfrogs Redding and Pierce. Candidacies of Doby and Slaughter confirmed that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison. Yeah, it looks weird that his career has no head and no tail; but the body of work is outstading.
6. RALPH KINER - I like mashers like this, and there's a smidge of war credit. Is getting underrated by the electorate, but that may finally be changing. Slugging version of Gordon.
7. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted. This is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way.
8. BILLY PIERCE - Some interesting comparisons with new HOMer Griffith, but a little less effective, played in a weaker league vs a strong one-league, etc. I think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of the era can beat him out (beyond the Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.
9. CUPID CHILDS - Even this slot may not be high enough. A full-length career for this brutal and underrepresented era is darn impressive. Even discounting 1890 AA, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras.
10. GEORGE SISLER - Slips one spot this week. The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
11. GAVVY CRAVATH - Continues to have a presence on the Howie ballot for the past decade+, after 20+ years of resistance. The key is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. And his work in his 30s is just outstanding. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
12. BOBBY DOERR - Like Gordon, deserving of our strong consideration. I was tempted to move him ahead of Gordon, but I have a problem with a guy having a monster year in 1944, of all years. Weird how both might have skated in, if only they played a couple more modest seasons instead of just disappearing.
13. BOB ELLIOTT - Probably better than HOMer Hack, has returned to my ballot in recent years. Wish he'd play all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Amazing how much better a hitter he was than Pie Traynor.
14. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed on my radar 5 years ago and onto my ballot 4 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, and other borderline HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. Just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
15. MICKEY WELCH - 2nd straight year in the 15 hole. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.



JUST MISSED
PETE BROWNING - Tough one for Pete, who was mid-ballot for me only a few years ago. He's slipped just behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14th 2 yrs ago, still in the mix. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Had not been on my ballot in many years before recently. Better pick than Mackey.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Slips from 15 2 yrs ago. I dismissed him long ago, but as the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15. Don't think he's a HOMer, but tough to find 15 better.


TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
WILLARD BROWN - Horrible OBP and played in a weak league, I still say, take that HOF! I even blaspheme by taking the "hey, the Negro Leagues were tougher" sour grapes for his late-career MLB flop with a grain of salt, frankly.
BIZ MACKEY - Probably will get elected in the HOM, too, in a few years, without me. I just don't like mediocre hitters, even if they're pretty good for their position. Fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth in his era? Convince me on that, and maybe he joins the ballot.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Still hovering around the edge of my ballot; I just don't think he's a HOMer, but his numbers are just strong enough that I can't just dismiss him for good.
   46. Howie Menckel Posted: March 15, 2006 at 02:39 PM (#1899303)
whoops, listed Van Haltren twice - good news is that in neither case was it in a ballot slot....
   47. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 15, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#1899363)
1972

1. Robin Roberts: Peak, career, workhorse, everything you’d want.

2. Jose Mendez: The Hall got him right. Dominant peak/prime candidate with hitting and infielding to boot.

3. Bucky Walters: Strong peak/prime pitching candidate with shoulder years too.

4. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available; the Hall didn’t get him right because it didn’t consider Mexico or North Dakota, nor probably his minor league play.

5. Charley Jones: Best available outfielder; dominant hitter; gets blacklist credit from me.

6. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with enough career to make good. The Hall’s wrong about him too.

7. Willard Brown: New walk data from Gadfly boosts his placement and solidifies my thoughts on him. I’d love to see what data the HOF committee had to work with.

8. Hugh Duffy: Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line.

9. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF.

10. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me.

11. Pete Browning: This is the olde tyme portion of my ballot. Browning was a great hitter and a pretty rotten fielder, but he’s still HOM material for me.

12. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime candidate.

13. Cupid Childs: The loser of the Leach reconsideration is Childs. He’s a HOMer for me, but he’ll have to wait another year for my support to show up again.

14. Biz Mackey: The Hall got him right, but he’s nevertheless a borderliner in my opinion. The hitting in the second half of his career is desultory and his peak batting skills hardly looked like George Sisler’s to me. But his excellent defense saves the day. Again, he’s a player I’d like to have the Shades of Glory data for.

15. Tommy Leach: Despite announcements that said he would reach number 11 this year, I’ve instead moved him to the final ballot slot. Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose.


16. Alejandro Oms: Borderliner’s borderliner. Love to see the data on him.

17. Sandy Koufax: OK, let the ripsaw start. I agree with others who suggest that Koufax’s career has been vastly overrated by the world at large. If his years were rearranged so that it conformed to a more normal career path, would we sing his hosannas? Possibly, but maybe not so loudly. Anyway, I do think he’s a HOMer, just not before a few other guys.

18. Burleigh Grimes: Early Wynn’s 1920s doppelganger. He’s not quite as good as Wynn, but close enough that he’s a HOMer.

19. Vic Willis: Shortish career years wise, but a ton of innings. Strange mix of factors including alternately great/porous defense and run support complicate things, but he’s an end-of-the-line HOMer for me.

20. Dick Redding: Who knows? The fact that the Hall passed on him doesn’t bode well, especially since I’ve never made up my mind clearly about him. I think he’s a HOMer, but I’ll be danged if I can sufficiently and articulately prove it to myself or anyone else.

21. Ned Williamson: He’s very nearly a HOMer, I mean really close, razor-thin line.

22. George Van Haltren: I remember when I was his bestest (though not onliest) friend. Some friendships fade away, some blow up, this one’s just sort of cooled. I’m still his friend, just not as friendly as he’d like.

23. George Sisler

24. Edd Roush

25. Arlie Latham

Doerr and Gordon I just don’t see, they’re in the 30s or 40s for me. Good players, yes, HOVG, probably. I guess I think Laughin’ Larry and Cupid should get first crack.

Gilliam is surprisingly close to the ballot with pre-MLB credit.

Friend, Kueen, Adcock: all good players with nothing that recommends them for HOMedness.
   48. andrew siegel Posted: March 15, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#1899409)
Our hardest ballot yet. Numbers 2 and 30 are absurdly close under my system.

I have added a major new tool to my system, a calculation that evenly weighs career value and seven-year non-consecutive prime and produces a number whereby 1.00 qualifies you as an HoMer. I use season-length-adjusted WS as the base for that system and then add subjective input based on WS's flaws after that fact. There are four unelected 20th century position players who score between 1.18 and 1.32 on my system; no one else is over 1.05. All four of those appear on my ballot below, although not at the top (as each is somewhat overrated WS, my formula, or both). Those players are Roush, Minoso (with 40 WS of extra credit), Leach, and Sisler.

I have struggled with Sandy Koufax. My initial pessimism was a mistake; I had inadvertently dropped his fourth best season from my calculations. His full record before extra credit is somehwere in the 30's on my 50% prime/50% career calculation. However, I think Koufax needs 3 upward adjustments: (1) his postseason performance should earn him substantial bonus points (I give him somewhere between 2 and 5 WS for each of the world series years); (2) he desrves some ballast added to his career totals for the years where he was substantially under-utilized; (3) his peak year WS numbers need to be slightly uperwardly tweaked before being compared with Roberts, Wood, Perry, etc., because they were achieved in fewer innings. When those adjustments are made, Koufax comes out very similar to though slightly ahead of Pierce and Drysdale.

Here's the ballot:


(1) Roberts (new)--I don't think it is particularly close.
(2) Edd Roush (6th)--My new system shows him as the most qualified 20th century position player on the ballot; his leage-ranks in OPS+ are in accord; and the other Hall snapped him up. He gets downgrades to lack of durability, league quality, and WS's infatuation with CF's, but is the flawed candidate in a field where all-but Roberts have flaws.
(3) Dobie Moore (2nd)--On my new system, he is a borderline HoMer if his top 7 seasons total 194 WS (as shown early in his thread) and a clear HoMer if they were around 210. Right now, my personal calculations have them at 207, but that may drop on further study.
(4) Minnie Minoso (13th)-- The big mover; doesn't blow you away on either prime or career value, but the two together add up to an impressive HoM resume. Adding 40 WS to the career totals and shifting to an objective calculation of prime both cojntribute to his rise.
(5) Hugh Duffy (7th)--Even without a season-length adjustment, he is the fifth most qualified position player on the ballot under my system; with one, he'd be number one. On the other hand, his offensive WS are extremely implausible given the underlying data. This rank continues to be a compromise but at some point I need to make a choice.
(6) George Van Haltren (4th)-- I continue to grow slightly less enamored each election; he is now at the point where one more negative adjustment could drop him 10 places.
(7) Jake Beckley (6th)--My WS-based system doesn't like him at all, but, here, I think the system is wrong. He's a smidge behind GVH in offensive value and a smidge behind in defensive value over a slightly longer career. How can they be far apart on anyone's ballot?
(8) Jose Mendez (10th)--Similar career value to Koufax, but his prime is slightly better as he manintained his peak slightly longer.
(9) Joe Gordon (9th)-- Leads a very tightly packed group of IF candidates that includes Sewell, Doerr, Elliot, Childs, and Doyle. I think that for his position and era, Gordon had the best bat of the group.
(10) Tommy Leach (off ballot/in the 30's)--I lost him in the shuffle; mea culpa. If you consider him an IF candidate, he looks a lot like the Gordon, etc. group. If you consider him a long-career, turn-of-the-century guy, he looks a lot like GVH and Beckley. If you consider him a 20th-century OF/1B candidate with some extra defensive value, he scores out near Minoso and Sisler. All in all, belongs with these guys.
(11) George Sisler (12th)-- My system overrates him in some ways (by, for example, calculating prime based on the exact number of good years he had and adopting WS's low replacemnt level when calculating career value) but underrates him in other ways (by, for example, not giving him extra credit for playing in the tougher league and adopting WS's artifically low-value for pre-1920 1B defense). Letting those biases cancel each other out, he lands here.
(12) Sandy Koufax (new)--I could see him number 2 or number 25. When I make the adjustments described above, he lands here. So, this is where he starts.
(13) Joe Sewell (off ballot/17th)--On further review, I now have him slightly ahead of Doerr and Elliot.
(14) Billy Pierce (off ballot/ 19th)--Bounces back onto the ballot based on comparisons with Koufax. Put up very similar value to Sandy albeit it in a very different fashion.
(15) Quincy Trouppe (11th)-- I have lingering concerns about league quality but translations try to deal with that. The least rembered great 20th century player.

You will note that my favorite teddy bear, Cupid Childs, falls off the ballot based on a direct comparison to the other top IF candidates that systematically tried to deal with the shifting defensive spectrum; he's now around number 20. Also gone are Alejandro Oms, who falls to number 16 after I realized I was using a 130 OPS+ projection rather than the 125 that our latest calculations produce; Willard Brown, whose league quality and OBP issues push him down from 15th to about 20th; and Bob Elliot, who gets passed by Sewell and Doerr in the IF glut and falls to number 18.

Other explanations:

Bell--Not quite enough bat, ranks somewhere between 19th and 25th.

Mackey--Not nearly enough bat, ranks in the 30's.

Redding--Numbers that I have seen don't match the reputation; ranks in the late 20's largely based on reputation.

Doerr--I like him a lot; he's number 17. Not quite as much offensive value as Gordon or Sewell.
   49. Al Peterson Posted: March 15, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#1899423)
1972 ballot. Robin Roberts and some guy who pitched for the Dodgers are the prime candidates.

1. Robin Roberts (-). I’d say he is a bit underrated historically due to the fact he did hang on past his prime.

2. Dick Redding (3). So the HOF missed him – doesn’t take away from the fact he could pitch well.

3. Bobby Doerr (4). Yes, above Gordon. But the gap is less than the difference in ballot positions seems to indicate. Does well in the non-Win Share metrics.

4. Edd Roush (5). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

5. Bob Johnson (6).
His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

6. Jimmy Ryan (7). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

7. Rube Waddell (8). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.

8. Tommy Leach (9). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little.

9. Sandy Koufax (-). I appreciate the vast amounts of discussion in his thread, trying to separate out the myth from the reality. As a voter who tries to balance peak and career he places here with the excellent peak making up for the career shortcomings.

10. Biz Mackey (10). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

11. Hugh Duffy (11). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s.

12. Cool Papa Bell (12). Speed game particularly suited for the Negro Leagues. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

13. Frank Chance (13). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. Had some speed for his day as well.

14. Billy Pierce (14). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

15. Dobie Moore (15). Seems like slot #15 is the one I swap people in and out of. Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years.

16-20: Oms, Minoso, Mullane, Sewell, Mendez
21-25: Childs, F Jones, Van Haltren, Browing, Berger
26-30: Poles, Bridges, Sisler, Easter, Kiner
31-35: Byrd, Gordon, Willard Brown, Keller, Lundy
36-40: Shocker, Veach, Stephens, Ben Taylor, Trout
41-45: Elliot, McGraw, Doyle, Joss, Beckley
46-50: Trouppe, Willis, Cicotte, Maranville, Cuyler

Top 10 Returnees: I’ve got 6 of them off-ballot: Sisler (#28), Van Haltren (#23), Willard Brown (#33), Gordon (#32), Mendez (#20), Kiner (#30). To have them clumped in 14 spots is pretty weird. Didn’t do it on purpose but it points out the fact they are likely worthy of my support. They’re peeking at the ballot, might get there someday.

New guys: Nothing special except the two on the ballot. Kuenn gets a mention for the Harvey Wallbanger’s Brewer club.
   50. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 15, 2006 at 05:07 PM (#1899461)
Hey Joe, I will be in Lancaster this week which is about an hour or so away.
I know we went over this before but did you go to school in Harrisburg or do you just have a college buddy or two living there? There aren't many schools around Harrisburg and if you had gone to Dickinson (in Carlisle) I probably would have remembered since that is my alma mater.
   51. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 15, 2006 at 05:31 PM (#1899489)
1972 ballot

Getting this done now so that I can procrastinate on my midterms...

Roberts, Koufax, and Clark Grffith make my PHOM

1. Robin Roberts (x, PHOM) - I don't think that his peak as quite as impressive as Koufax bu ### is close. He trounces Sandy in prime and career, however. One of those guys that I have found out was much better than I thought.

2. Sandy Koufax (x, PHOM) - I rate his three year peak as the highest on the board (I think it is underrated by WS) and his five year peak is challenged only by Keller.

3. Cupid Childs (2, PHOM) - High peak player whose career was of decentlength for his era and position. Best 2B of the 19th century.

4. Hugh Duffy (3, PHOM) - Best of the 1890's CF trio based on his superior peak.

5. Dick Redding (4, PHOM) - Top pitcher in my backlog and 2nd best pitcher of the deadball era behind only Smokey Joe and that ain't bad.

6. Charlie Keller (5, PHOM) - With war credit his peak rivals that of koufax. Great player who I believe is significantly underrated by the electorate.

7. Dobie Moore (6, PHOM) - The black Hughie Jennings and coming form me that is quite a compliment. His peak wasn't quite as good but he had more good years.

8. Ralph Kiner (7, PHOM) - Close to Keller, but I htink Keller was teh better player. More power but he didn't have as high of an OBP and was atrocious afield. 7 conescutive HR titles in impressive in any era.

9. Bucky Walters (8, PHOM) - High peak pitcher who was able to help himself wth the bat. I have him just below HOMers Ferrell and Lemon.

10. Pete Browning (10) - Great hitter who woudl be up with Keller and Kiner if I didn't have questions about the quality of the AA. 2ndin line for my PHOM after Bill Terry at the moment.

11. Joe Gordon (11) - Very godo hitter and very good defender, with war credit I think he was just a smidge better than Doerr.

12. Bobby Doerr (12) - nearly indistinguishable from Gordon when war credit s and deductions are taken into account. The difference, as I see it, is that Doerr had a few more good yeras but Gordon was better at his best. Both belong in the HOM.

13. Quincey Trouppe (13) - In a year where Biz Mackey is the leading returnee I think that we may be electing the wrong NeL catcher. Trouppe had a very nice peak and was a much better hitter than Mackey. I dont' thin Mackey is a bad selection necessarily but at the same time I think teh NeL selection committee picked the wrong catcher.

14. George Van Haltren (14) - He had a very long career adn very long prime but his good yeras were much better than others who fit that mold. He is the player Beckley fans think they are supporting in Beckley.

15. Dizzy Dean (15) - Another pitcher in the Koufax mold. he had a very high peak and very little else. Not wuite as god as Sandy, however he was funnier.

Newbies
No one else in really in my consideration set. Am I missing someone?

Required
Sisler - Ranked at #16 he will be on my ballot in 1973 fo rthe first time in about a decade. My major worry with him is that his peak wasn't great enough to carry his later years.

Mackey and Bell - Two long career, low peak types. I am not a big fan of such a player and both reside in the upper 30's for me. Neither is a bad selections with all of the guesswork involved in the numbers we have seen. Would rather see Oms and Trouppe go in instead.

Willard Brown - At #20 in a dead heat with Minoso. The big wild card is whether or not he would have been able to last in MLB with such little patience.
   52. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 15, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#1899500)
There aren't many schools around Harrisburg and if you had gone to Dickinson (in Carlisle) I probably would have remembered since that is my alma mater.

Ahhhhem... How about my alma mater, Gettysburg College!!!! A mere 45 minutes down US 15 (the Baltimore Pike I think the locals call it).

jschmeagol, did you ever go to the pipe/tabacco store in Carlizzzle run by a bitter old racist named Johnson?
   53. Jim Sp Posted: March 15, 2006 at 05:57 PM (#1899541)
Minoso and Roberts PHoM. Roberts and Koufax on ballot but look awfully overrated to me, though on the good side of the borderline.

Crandall, Adcock and Friend memorable but not close.

1)Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one. PHoM in 1970.
2)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
3)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
5)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
6)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
7)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
8)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
9)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too. PHoM in 1966.
10)Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. Compare to Julian Javier, his hitting was way above replacement.
11)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right. PHoM in 1970.
12)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
13)Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs. PHoM 1972.
14)RobertsPHoM 1972. Career ERA+ lower than expected, but still a lot there.
15)Koufaxgreat peak exaggerated by low scoring run environment, short career.

Willard Brown--Moved him from “not convinced” to #16. I’m still concerned about the terrible plate discipline and terrible ML flop.
Sisler--#84, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Redding--#40.
Van Haltren--#75, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Kiner--#20
Mendez--#33, I rate him right below Joss. PHoM in 1932.
   54. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 15, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#1899551)
Wow, we've got a bunch of MAC alum! That's what the conference used to be back in my day before they split it into Commonwealth and Freedom.

I went to Elizabethtown. Pretty funny, I went to HS in CT and within 3 days of getting to ETown, I borrowed a friend's car to head for Millersville and the APBA factory! It was like a Muslim heading to Mecca. Couldn't believe it was only 1/2 hour away . . . one of my best friends is from Carlisle, he went to HS there - I remember hitting a bar called The Blessed Oliver Plunkett with him once, total dive, but I like dive bars, and it was great for a college kid.

jschmeagol/Dr. Chaleeko - I won't be able to get to Lancaster or Gettysburg this weekend, but if you can find a way to swing towards Harrisburg, let me know. I'll drop you an email through the site here with my cell phone number.
   55. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 15, 2006 at 06:05 PM (#1899552)
LOL, sent yours jschmeagol - and now I have to wait another 5 MINUTES!!! before using the email console again. And I even have one of those funny hats on my avatar, jeez!
   56. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 15, 2006 at 06:48 PM (#1899588)
Joe, I had a friend at E-Town named Megan Malick, ever run into her?

jschmeagol/Dr. Chaleeko - I won't be able to get to Lancaster or Gettysburg this weekend, but if you can find a way to swing towards Harrisburg, let me know. I'll drop you an email through the site here with my cell phone number.

The amusing thing is that I now live in York...but not York, Pa, York, ME! Wish I could meet up, but the 14 hour drive doesn't seem doable. ; )
   57. DL from MN Posted: March 15, 2006 at 07:28 PM (#1899676)
Jim Sp - you have the strangest ballot I've seen yet. Lots of up-the-middle players and no pitchers. Are Rizzuto and Lazzeri just off the ballot?
   58. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 15, 2006 at 07:43 PM (#1899706)
Jim Sp - you have the strangest ballot I've seen yet. Lots of up-the-middle players and no pitchers.

He does have two at the tail-end of his ballot, DL.
   59. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 15, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#1899742)
Pitchers, that is.
   60. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 15, 2006 at 08:50 PM (#1899791)
Dr. C - I do not know of a Megan Malick - I'm class of 1994 - It's a small school, where you know just about everyone, so I'm guessing I wasn't there at the right time . . .
   61. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 15, 2006 at 09:55 PM (#1899875)
Doc,

I was thinking of actual schools not safety schools like Gettysburg! ;-) I also cant' say that I know an old racist named johnson, there isnt' much contact between the carlisle townspoeple and the people at the school.

Joe,

I am not going home (I go to grad school in Manhattan) until sunday so I probably wont' be in harrisburg this weekend, which sucks. Anyways, I have been to the APBA in Lancaster.
   62. dan b Posted: March 15, 2006 at 10:14 PM (#1899901)
My daughter is a 1996 graduate of Dickinson. Can't think of a better place for breakfast than Fay's Country Kitchen.
   63. Jim Sp Posted: March 15, 2006 at 10:54 PM (#1899986)
you have the strangest ballot I've seen yet

Stick around, I predict my consensus score won't even be in the bottom 3.
   64. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 15, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#1900014)
saftey school
Unless you're a lacrosse or women's soccer athlete!

My daughter is a 1996 graduate of Dickinson. Can't think of a better place for breakfast than Fay's Country Kitchen.

Well there is the famed Molly Pitcher Waffle Shop in Chambersburg. It's amazing how much good food $6.00 can buy you in central PA. Prices may have changed, of course, it's been ten years since I was an undergrad.
   65. Trevor P. Posted: March 15, 2006 at 11:18 PM (#1900040)
1971 saw my #1 and #9 players elected.

1) Robin Roberts (--). Almost directly comparable to Spahn, with a peak that I would argue is better than Koufax's. Easy, easy #1.
2) George Van Haltren (2). Consolidated league, long career, and a pretty decent late-career prime according to WARP1. And scads of win shares, for what it's worth.
3) Jake Beckley (3). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite alot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
4) Quincy Trouppe (4). Better than Schang, with more in-season appearances. Probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
5) Dick Redding (5). He's sure worked his way up the ballot. Not quite as durable as Wynn, but "Cannonball" threw more high-quality innings than the now-inducted Bob Lemon.
6) Cupid Childs (6). Coming into the 1971 ballot, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation underscored how impressive his peak really was.
7) Edd Roush (7). 110 WARP1 may be excessive, but the discount to WARP3 is overstated. Jumps up when compared to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
8) Bob Elliott (9). Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Win Shares seems to be the only metric keeping Elliott out of serious consideration.
9) Billy Pierce (12). Whether he was a better overall player than Bob Lemon is up for debate, but my initial study of Pierce definitely suggests he was a better pitcher. Defense-adjusted ERA and PRAA both seem to bear that assertion out. Alternatively, he's sort of like Bucky Walters without a war discount.
10) Willard Brown (10). If Brown had never posted that 12-for-67 in 1947, I think I would've had less trouble placing him all these years. I'm giving in and placing him 10th this year - Dr. C's win share estimates from 1937 onwards (his "breakthrough" year) are pretty similar to GVH, so he's on the ballot.
11) Alejandro Oms (11). Another centerfielder, though he played more corner than Roush or Van Haltren.
12) Bobby Doerr (13). Is it too late to get on the Doerr bandwagon? The second best 2B available, after Childs.
13) Wally Schang (14). Schang isn't that far behind contemporaries like Hartnett and Cochrane when it comes to playing time. 78.0 WARP1 is about one win per full season less than Cochrane.
14) Biz Mackey (15). Durable defensively, and enough offensive impact in his best years to make the ballot.
15) George Sisler (16). Back on the ballot with Griffith's election.

Disclosures:

Sandy Koufax - Perhaps it's to my benefit that I won't be born for another eight years. I weight nine-year prime the heaviest, and by that measure Koufax ends up just beneath a war-adjusted Bucky Walters, far below Billy Pierce. I don't give him (or any player) playoff credit. His peak was impressive, even spectacular, but there's just not enough there to make the ballot. Add in the fact that I generally try to be conservative with first-yearplayers, and for 1972 I have Koufax around #27.

Joe Gordon - As I only give about 70% war credit, Gordon falls in line behind Doerr. Around #18.

C.P. Bell - Review of his case has been pushed back to 1973, your honour.
   66. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 15, 2006 at 11:31 PM (#1900066)
Fay's is really really good. I think the godo food line is more in the $8 range now, but you acn still get some decent stuff for $6.

Also, it boggles my mind that there are people on here with children older than me. What was your duaghter's major dan?
   67. DL from MN Posted: March 16, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#1900156)
> C.P. Bell - Review of his case has been pushed back to 1973

Better get on it. He might not last past 1973. I have him topping out my 1973 prelim (assuming Roberts is elected) and he tied with Doerr for the most 2,3,4 votes in 1971 of anyone not elected. A couple favorable re-evaluations could push him over the top.
   68. OCF Posted: March 16, 2006 at 01:30 AM (#1900374)
My Pennsylvania connections are a little further west than what you guys are talking about. My mother was born south of Bedford and grew up in Breezewood. (Everyone knows where Breezewood is, right?) It's probably been 20 years since I was last there.
   69. OCF Posted: March 16, 2006 at 01:31 AM (#1900380)
1972 ballot.

Even though I think I'm overdue for a sweeping revaluation (am I hanging on too hard to my "teddy bear" candidates of Doyle and Van Haltren?), this isn't the week for me to do that. I'm master of ceremonies, test writer, and arbiter of competition for a local high school math competition this coming weekend.

1. Robin Roberts (new) Great peak, very good career. An easy choice.
2. Larry Doyle (2, 1, 3, 2, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
3. George Van Haltren (3, 2, 4, 3, 3) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
4. Billy Pierce (---, 4, 4) See his thread for more. Better than Lemon. I like him better than Wynn. One thing to note: he had significant relief usage throughout his career (the old Grove/Johnson/3F Brown pattern), presumably at high leverage.
5. Ralph Kiner (5, 4, 5, 5, 5) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
6. Orestes Miñoso (---, 13, 6) Moved him up based on what's been posted lately.
7. Joe Sewell (6, 5, 7, 7, 7) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
8. Quincy Trouppe (7, 6, 8, 8, 8) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
9. Biz Mackey (8, 7, 9, 9, 9) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Berra didn't have quite the hitting career needed for election as a corner player.
10. Jose Mendez (9, 8, 10, 10, 10) A peak-value pitching candidate.
11. Sandy Koufax (new) Mendez seems as good a place as any to peg Koufax's candidacy. Even though he's not (as popularly assumed) an "inner circle" candidate, that's still a very real peak.
12. Dick Redding (10, 9, 11, 11, 11) A career-value pitching candidate.
13. Jake Beckley (11, 10, 12, 12, 12) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
14. Bob Elliott (13, 11, 13, 14, 13) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
15. Mickey Vernon (14, 12, 14, 15, 14) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.

16. Willard Brown (15, 13, 15, 16, 15) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
17. Hugh Duffy (16, 15, 16, 17, 16)
18. Nellie Fox (---, 17) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
19. Bucky Walters (17, 16, 17, 18, 18) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
20. Cool Papa Bell (22, 21, 22, 23, 19) A legend, of course, with a very long career. Moved him up because of the fuss I was making about Fox's long career and defense.
21. Phil Rizzuto (18, 17, 18, 19, 20) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
22. Cupid Childs (19, 18, 19, 20, 21) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
23. Joe Gordon (20, 19, 20, 21) Not much to choose from between him and Billy Herman.
24. Tommy Bridges (21, 20, 21, 22, 23) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
25. Edd Roush (23, 22, 23, 24, 24) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
26. George Sisler (24, 23, 24, 25, 25) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
27. Vern Stephens (25, 24, 25, 26, 26)
28. Bobby Doerr (26, 25, 26, 27, 27)
29. Dobie Moore (27, 26, 27, 28, 28) Short career, high peak.
30. Bob Johnson (28, 27, 28, 29, 29)
   70. Brent Posted: March 16, 2006 at 02:15 AM (#1900497)
(Everyone knows where Breezewood is, right?)

I've spent oh so many hours backed up in traffic in Breezewood!
   71. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 16, 2006 at 02:28 AM (#1900523)
Do any of you guys know where Bagel Street is?
   72. jimd Posted: March 16, 2006 at 02:33 AM (#1900530)
Also, it boggles my mind that there are people on here with children older than me.

I just wish we had some voters that had grandchildren older than you. They could add some more firsthand adult perspective on this period. I get the impression that our eldest voters were still in school (highschool? college?) during the Koufax era. (Me? I was a wide-eyed kid, grades 4-8.)
   73. dan b Posted: March 16, 2006 at 05:01 AM (#1900796)
jschmeagol - After majoring in English and Womens Studies, she went to seminary and is now an ordained minister.

I was in college when Koufax pitched his last game and remember a student union discussion when I took the devils advocate position that Koufax wasn't the best pitcher that ever lived, Warren Spahn was. I didn't have much conviction in my argument though. Of course Sandy was the best - he had just finished his career with 5 consecutive ERA titles (being a sabermatrician in 1966 meant you knew how to figure ERA), his last 3 full seasons he won 25 or more games and struck out more than 300! Then there was the 4 no hitters, one each in 4 consecutive seasons - you watched games he pitched expecting to see another no-no. Throw in games with 18 K's and the post season dominance - a 4-hit, 10 K CG in game 5 of the '65 series, followed 3 days later with a 3-hit, 10K CG in game 7. That he sat out game 1 to observe a Jewish holiday just added to the mystique. How could he not be the best ever.

Even though he only played 7 seasons during the Sixties, a writers poll named him player of the decade. Considering his impact on pennant races and post season, they may have been right.

Sabermetrics have not been kind to Sandy's legacy, but in NHBA, Bill James thought enough of Sandy's dominant peak to rank him 10th - above our slam dunk Robin Roberts.
   74. sunnyday2 Posted: March 16, 2006 at 05:02 AM (#1900799)
I saw Koufax pitch on TV many many times, and saw him live in person for the 7th game of the 1965 WS. Is it sentiment then to want to rate him highly (i.e. #1)?

Just in case it is, I am running some comps (Waddell, Joss, Dean) on him first. But also running comps on Roberts (Wynn, Rixey, Ruffing). The truth is that neither one looks as dominant against their respective comps as I expected. Is Roberts really better than Rixey, e.g?
   75. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: March 16, 2006 at 05:03 AM (#1900802)
How about my alma mater, Gettysburg College!!!! A mere 45 minutes down US 15 (the Baltimore Pike I think the locals call it).

Our little world grows smaller -- I'm a G-burg grad, too, though many years before Dr. C. His older profs were young-to-middle-age when I was there. Doc --- Route 97 is the Baltimore Pike, it runs to the left around where Business 15 forks to the right south of the square and becomes Steinwehr Ave. Neither road actually goes to Baltimore.

I get the impression that our eldest voters were still in school (highschool? college?) during the Koufax era.

Maybe we need to get Harvey W. & Andy on board. :-)

I was in college during Koufax's prime. I hated him. He deprived the Giants of pennants, Juan Marichal of at least one Cy Young. Maybe more, don't feel like looking it up. (That's what age does to you) Wasn't too crazy about Gibson, either. But son-of-a-[expletive deleted]: Koufax is the only pitcher about whom I've ever repeatedly thought (at the time and not in retrospect): "This just isn't fair." Pedro can strike me like that occasionally, for different reasons. Gregg Olson's curveball wasn't fair for a brief time, but the rest of his pitches were. Fair, that is.

Koufax: totally unfair! Yeah, he'll be up there on my ballot.
   76. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 16, 2006 at 05:40 AM (#1900856)
Sabermetrics have not been kind to Sandy's legacy, but in NHBA, Bill James thought enough of Sandy's dominant peak to rank him 10th - above our slam dunk Robin Roberts.

He moved Koufax down in the paperback version, I believe. He also had him above Roger Clemens in the hardcover edition which, even at that time, was kind of ridiculous and pretty indefensible, IMO. IOW, even with the sabermetric revolution that he helped usher in, Bill James had a hard time resisting the pull of public opinion himself and gave him a huge subjective boost to move him near the top.
   77. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 16, 2006 at 05:41 AM (#1900858)
"My mother was born south of Bedford and grew up in Breezewood."

People grow up in Breezewood? Did she live at the Taco Bell or the McDonalds? :-)

I've always thought of Breezewood as the outdoor Food Court of the great mall that is Pennsylvania . . .
   78. OCF Posted: March 16, 2006 at 07:02 AM (#1901202)
Well, someone's got to run the businesses there. In our family's case, the phone company. And this was before most of the national chains you know existed, so there wouldn't have been a Taco Bell - maybe a Howard Johnson. She went to high school in Everett, and left Pennsylvania for Michigan as soon as she graduated from high school - eventually to wind up in Oklahoma.
   79. sunnyday2 Posted: March 16, 2006 at 01:35 PM (#1901454)
I went from 10 yrs old to 20 during the '60s. To this day I have clearer memories of bseball in the '60s than of more recent decades.

Koufax was the greatest baseball player of the 1960s. Mays and F. Robby complete the big three. I guess the NL ruled though of course F. Robby was half AL.

C- Freehan
1B- F.Robby
2B- Maz
SS- Wills
3B-B. Robby (sorry, Santo fans)
OF- Yaz, Mays, Aaron
DH- Mantle (gotta get Mick on my team)
P- Koufax, Marichal, Gibson, Ford, Wilhelm
   80. Howie Menckel Posted: March 16, 2006 at 02:30 PM (#1901476)
sunnyday, I had Rixey as "elect-me" even before he got in, so that's a fair comparison in my eyes.

Roberts was better, though, in my boo, based on the "middle 5 years."
   81. Thane of Bagarth Posted: March 16, 2006 at 03:14 PM (#1901505)
1972 Ballot

1) Robin Roberts
Ranks tenth on my all-time pitcher list (through this election)—ahead of Feller, behind Mathewson.

2) Ben Taylor
He's been in the top 5 on my ballot since 1958. I see him as equal to, or slightly better than, Suttles among NeL 1stbasemen.

3) George Van Haltren
Big career #s in Win Shares and WARP1. His 3 year and 5 year peaks in WS are almost identical to Ashburn’s, but WARP3 gives the 5 year edge to Ashburn (46.7 to 39.0).

4) Bobby Doerr
Best of the middle infielder heap. Great defense and 115 OPS+.

5) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories make him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. He moves up a few spots this election because I think I had been underestimating his longevity.

6) Dick Redding
7) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

8) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but thanks to 300 extra IP and a OPS+ advantage of 13 points Bucky wins out.

9) Willard Brown
I consider the Andre Dawson comparison to be rather complimentary, as Dawson was a classic “5-tool” player, at least early on in his career. As much as Brown’s lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

10) Fielder Jones
Doesn't have the 130 OPS+ that jumps out at you, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he's a ballot contender: 44.3 in top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.

11) Minnie Minoso
Stays at #11 this year.

12) Pete Browning
The WARP1-WARP2 (timeline, league strength, etc.) adjustment hits Browning pretty hard, but he was an offensive powerhouse and his numbers still justify a spot on the bottom third of the ballot.

13) Dizzy Trout
Similar WARP career (~87) and 5 yr. peak (~48) to that of Walters, but WS gives Bucky an edge: 248 to 230 career, 132 to 126 5 yr. consecutive peak.

14) Spotswood Poles
15) Alejandro Oms—Like Mendez and Ruffing, Poles and Oms are hard to separate.

Rest of the Top 50
16) Joe Gordon--Should make my ballot next year. Not terribly far behind Doerr.
17) Bill Monroe
18) Jimmy Ryan
19) Charlie Keller
20) Dick Lundy
21) Ralph Kiner--149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.
22) Billy Pierce
23) Dobie Moore
24) Dom DiMaggio
25) Burleigh Grimes
26) Tommy Leach
27) Gavy Cravath
28) Ray Dandridge
29) Sandy Koufax—By no means is this comparison perfect, but if you look at Kiner’s and Koufax’s top 5 totals in the uberstats they are remarkably similar.
WS-
Sandy 151
Ralph 155

WARP1/3-
Sandy 47.4/47.8
Ralph 48.9/47.7

Koufax may have the greatest “aura” of any pitcher we’ve encountered, but I can’t see ranking him far ahead of guys like Kiner, and Kiner isn’t even on my ballot. That being said, one of my favorite lines from The Big Lebowski is
“Three thousand years of beautiful tradition, from Moses to Sandy Koufax--
YOU'RE ####### RIGHT I’M LIVING IN THE F***ING PAST!”
30) Harry Hooper
31) Bob Johnson
32) Edd Roush
33) Bob Elliott
34) Bobby Veach
35) Joe Sewell
36) George Sisler--Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
37) Phil Rizzuto
38) Biz Mackey--I’m not convinced his hitting was strong enough to earn him a higher spot.
39) Rabbit Maranville
40) Sam Rice
41) Carl Mays
42) Cy Seymour
43) Wally Berger
44) Hugh Duffy
45) Jake Beckley
46) Lon Warneke
47) George Burns
48) Roy Thomas
49) Kiki Cuyler
50) Lefty O’Doul

New Eligibles in Top 100
92) Jim Gilliam
   82. sunnyday2 Posted: March 16, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#1901558)
>Sandy Koufax—By no means is this comparison perfect, but if you look at Kiner’s and Koufax’s top 5 totals in the uberstats they are remarkably similar.
WS-
Sandy 151
Ralph 155

WARP1/3-
Sandy 47.4/47.8
Ralph 48.9/47.7

I agree with this, which is why they will be within a couple-three places on my ballot too--in the 5-7 range. Having re-eval the pitchers, I am now working on my 3rd PHoMer for '72. This is a very very very tough year!
   83. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 16, 2006 at 05:09 PM (#1901643)
> 3B-B. Robby (sorry, Santo fans)

Not as sorry as your all-sixties team will be... ; )
   84. yest Posted: March 16, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#1901707)
I'm not so sure these are the best players but I do think it would be the best team (the right balance of offence and defense I doubt any opposing team would score more then 5 runs in a in a 162 season)
My 60's team
C- Bill Freehan
1B- Frank Robinson
2B- Bill Mazaroski
SS- Louis Aparicio
3B- Brooks Robinson
OF- Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron
P- Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale,
RP- Hoyt Wilhelm
   85. jingoist Posted: March 16, 2006 at 05:58 PM (#1901721)
Everett, PA...home of the Bud Shuster By-way!
Then of course you have Rt 220 N. from Bedford, the Bud Shuster Hi-way.
Good old Bud sure threw a lot of legislative highway pork at his district.
I've eaten at that diner in Everett many times over the years....sure beats the fast food joints in Breezewood.

Roberts and Rixey are good comps; I'd rank Robin a bit higher closer to Spahnie.

I might be the oldest poster here; born in 1945.
I missed most of Koufax's great years as I joined the Navy right out of high school in 63 and didn't return until late 66 after his career was done.
Grew up a Pirate fan but as a kid I also rooted for the Dodgers (career underdogs to the Yankees until 1955) until they moved to LA.

Koufax was a non-event in New York and only began to blossom after I went away so I missed all his great feats. Too bad.
   86. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 16, 2006 at 06:18 PM (#1901778)
> 3B-B. Robby (sorry, Santo fans)

Not as sorry as your all-sixties team will be... ; )


Heh. I'd take Santo without question, too.
   87. DavidFoss Posted: March 16, 2006 at 07:53 PM (#1902059)
Heh. I'd take Santo without question, too.

Santo is *way* better with the bat and didn't exactly have an iron glove (five gold gloves of his own). Unless career length is coming into play, I'm guessing that Brooksie's mythical status is tainting the judgement of people who grew up in the 60s. This is something we need to watch out for.
   88. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 16, 2006 at 08:01 PM (#1902086)
c- Torre (Freehan verrrry close)
1- McCovey (Killebrew verrrry close)
2- Rose
3- Santo
s- Fregosi
L- Bi. Williams
C- Mays
R- Fr. Robinson (not to be confused with Fl. Robinson)
SP1- B. Gibson (not to be confused with the other B. Gibson)
SP2- Koufax
SP3- Marichal
SP4- Bunning (Ford, Drysdale, Perry, Seaver runners-up)
RP- Wilhelm
   89. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 16, 2006 at 08:04 PM (#1902098)
Unless career length is coming into play, I'm guessing that Brooksie's mythical status is tainting the judgement of people who grew up in the 60s. This is something we need to watch out for.

That's a great point, David. You don't hear it as much anymore, but I can remember many people placing Robinson over Schmidt as the greatest all-time third baseman ever! Maybe by consuming mass quanities of magic mushrooms could you come to that conclusion. :-) At least Traynor had that non-contextual .320 BA to help his case.
   90. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 16, 2006 at 08:11 PM (#1902117)
Brooksie's mythical status is tainting the judgement of people who grew up in the 60s. This is something we need to watch out for.

Absolutely, totally. I don't think Koufax is the most overrated player. I think it's Broooks Robinson. See Koufax was really truly great, park effects, run environment, and all. Brooks was a guy who hit well a couple years but mostly was so-so with the bat. But he played at an unusually barren time for 3B inthe AL and was on TV making good plays every couple Octobers.

I think he's a HOMer, butI just don't see how he's any higher than the 10th greatest 3B ever, and even that would be generous. I rank him around 15th personally just behind Darrell Evans (or just ahead depending on what mood I'm in). There's a lot of career, but even so, there's a lot of garbage-time time in his ledger. Way overrated: if you think I'm the Koufax police this year, what til you meet the director of the FBRI: Fanatical Bureauof Robinson Interrogations.
   91. Mike Webber Posted: March 16, 2006 at 08:24 PM (#1902150)
Using Win Shares as my main tool with a little bit of peak adjustment.

1)ROBIN ROBERTS – symbiotic relationship with Ashburn continues in HOM.
2)EDD ROUSH – Long career, solid peak with 3 MVP type seasons
3)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
4)JOE GORDON 5 times in top 10 of MVP voting, in the all-star game every year from 1939 to 1949 except his two war seasons.
5)SANDY KOUFAX – May be too high, but I think his peak argument trumps Kiner’s so he has to slot above him.
6)RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot.
7)BOBBY DOERR – discussion last week slides him back below Gordon after reviewing them again.
8)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore,I bumped him further down my ballot to in relation to my penalty for 19th century pitching win shares.
9)CARL MAYS – I think his strong peak moves him ahead Griffith and Warneke, but just barely.
10)PIE TRAYNOR – I’d rank the Pirate third basemen this way, Leach, Traynor, Bonilla, Elliott, Hebner, Madlock, Hoak.
11)COOL PAPA BELL – Long career, great anecdotal evidence.
12)MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner, career vs peak argument.
13)DICK REDDING – Moved him after re-examining his thread.
14)BILLY PIERCE – consistently good, maybe not enough peak to be really high on the ballot.
15) GEORGE SISLER – enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang and Lombardi
Willard Brown – too many question marks for me.

None of the other newbies are close to the ballot, but Junior Gilliam is the kind of ball player I’d love to have on my team, and OPS+ is little unfair to him because OBA is more important than slugging.
   92. OCF Posted: March 16, 2006 at 09:26 PM (#1902341)
About that all-60's outfield: Frank Robinson in his career played 1281 games in RF and 820 in LF. He was a LF when he first came up, and he was mostly a LF in 1963. Although Aaron was almost entirely RF in the 60's, he did wind up with over 300 career games in left. I've never made that much of the distinction between RF and LF.

So I'll take a 60's OF of Robinson, Mays, and Aaron - with Mantle not too far away, even if he did retire before the decade ended. There's just no way I'd rather have either Billy Williams or Clemente.
   93. karlmagnus Posted: March 16, 2006 at 09:28 PM (#1902344)
You guys are forgetting Yaz, the late 60s version of which I'd take over all the others mentioned (Mays was better in the 50s.)
   94. sunnyday2 Posted: March 16, 2006 at 09:44 PM (#1902379)
Not forgetting Yaz. I had Yaz, Mays and Aaron with Fr. (not Fl.) Robby at 1B. Sorry Willie, sorry Harmon.

>There's just no way I'd rather have either Billy Williams or Clemente.

Absolutely correct.
   95. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 16, 2006 at 10:29 PM (#1902465)
You're right, i did forget Yaz. My bad; put him in left on my squad.
   96. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 16, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#1902516)
You guys are forgetting Yaz, the late 60s version of which I'd take over all the others mentioned (Mays was better in the 50s.)

I'll take Mays of Yaz during the sixties pretty easily. Mays also mised a few seasons during the Fifties, so it's hard to say that he was better than his years during the Sixties (though his best years might have been better)
   97. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 16, 2006 at 11:17 PM (#1902592)
Here's another all-time team, watch for the theme:

Biz
Diz
Quis
Maas
Haas
Oz
Schnozz
Mays
Hayes
Mays
Maz
Yaz
Dazz

I think I'll call this The All Was Not Was Team. Not much on the overall team-speed front, though.
   98. dan b Posted: March 17, 2006 at 02:33 AM (#1902924)
1.Koufax One of the old-timers in this electorate has to acknowledge the single most dominant pitcher we ever saw with a #1 vote. It might as well be me. Player of the decade. I can't think of any athlete that ended his career performing at a higher level.
2.Roberts I really like Roberts a lot. I wish he had been on the ballot in 1971, because I may have put him ahead of Spahn.
3.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. The following are at or above the median:
3 year peak (non-consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Keller
5 year peak (consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Duffy, Berger, Keller
8 year peak (non-consecutive) – Duffy, Keller
10 year peak (consecutive) – Duffy, Burns
WS/162 – Keller, Chance, Berger, Rosen, Duffy, McGraw
Career – None
4.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
5.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. IMO, Koufax is a no-brainer. When comparing all the eligible high peak pitchers on this ballot to Sandy’s overpowering dominance from 1961-1966, Rube’s performance from 1902-1908 comes closest.
6.Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
7.Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Best WS/162 among 20th century players on this ballot. See Duffy comment above.
8.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
9.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
10.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
11.Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
12.Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
13.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
·3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
·5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
·8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
·WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
·OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
·NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
·HoM Support – Roush forgotten; Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! L
14.Minoso PHoM 1972.
15.Fox Need a 2B to bridge the Jackie to Joe gap
16.Bell PHoM 1968.
17.Brown, Willard
18.Cooper, W. Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942. HoF just admitted the wrong Cooper.
19. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
20.Ashburn
21.C. Mays
22.Chance
23.Burns
24.Oms
25.Arlett
   99. sunnyday2 Posted: March 17, 2006 at 12:49 PM (#1903893)
1972

Robin Roberts, Sandy Koufax and Harry Stovey go PHoM

1. Robin Roberts (new, PHoM 1972)—I had expected to prefer Koufax, I wanted to prefer Koufax, but Roberts was better than I remembered

2. Dobie Moore (2 last week-2-3, PHoM 1942)—still the best peak position player available

3. George Sisler (3-3-4, PHoM 1938)—excellent point made this past week; his good and bad years stack up nicely against Early Wynn’s but the same is also true of Robin Roberts, both had 7.5 years of normal superstar pattern from beginning of career, then fell off a cliff

4. Pete Browning (4-4-5, PHoM 1961)
5. Ralph Kiner (5-5-6, PHoM 1964)—more big peak hitters

6. Rube Waddell (10-7-7, PHoM 1932)—bounces back up based on comparison with Koufax and the other peak/prime pitchers

7. Sandy Koufax (new, PHoM 1972)—doesn’t rank nearly as highly as I expected (clearly not better than Waddell), but still an easy choice for PHoM

8. Tommy Bond (11-11-8, PHoM 1929)—also bounces back up based on comparison of big peak pitchers

9. Jose Mendez (6-6-8, PHoM 1957)—big peak pitcher, newly enshrined in Cooperstown, but drops down a tad based on pitcher re-evaluation

10. Nellie Fox (7-x, PHoM 1971)—best available 2B

11. Willard Brown (8-8-9, PHoM 1966)—big peak/prime/career hitter, now also a member of the “other” HoF

12. Minnie Minoso (9-9-x, PHoM 1970)—comps are Brown and Enos Slaughter, speaking from a peak/prime standpoint.

13. Addie Joss (14-13-10, PHoM 1967)—swaps places with Redding after pitcher re-eval

14. Dick Redding (12-10-11, PHoM 1968)—I am not discouraged by the Cooperstown vote

(14a. Harry Stovey—PHoM 1972)
(14b. Eppa Rixey)

15. Joe Gordon (14-12-15)—virtually indistinguishable from Doerr, Doyle, Childs and Monroe, along with pitcher re-eval I had to decide whether Gordon is really the next PHoMer…

(15a. Stan Hack)

Backlog (* = PHoM)

16-20. C. Jones*, Doerr, (Averill), Duffy, (Griffith), Doyle, Williamson*
21-25. Cicotte, Keller, Dean, Stephens, Klein
26-30. Trouppe, Roush, Cravath, Sewell, Childs*, (Ruffing)
31-35. Monroe, Tiernan, Lundy, Oms, (Wynn), Bob Johnson

Required: Biz Mackey is in the 40s, as I prefer Trouppe and Bresnahan. Van Haltren and Bell, the peakless wonders, remain in consideration but below #40.
   100. favre Posted: March 17, 2006 at 02:22 PM (#1903904)
1.Robin Roberts
2.Jake Beckley

Given the choice between Koufax 1961-6 and Roberts 1950-5, I would take Koufax. However, it was closer than I thought, and Roberts has another five prime years. Beckley’s prime is almost three times as long as Sandy’s, so he gets the #2 spot

3.Sandy Koufax
4.Rube Waddell

From 1963-1966 Koufax averaged 298 innings with a 175 ERA+, and pitched 48 innings in the World Series with an ERA under 1.00. I guess “overrated” isn’t really a word I would use for him…My system heavily favors prime, so Koufax needs no extra credit to make it to an elect me spot.

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. His relatively low IP per season gives Koufax the edge, even though Waddell has a couple of more prime years.

5.George Sisler
6.Ralph Kiner
7.Gavvy Cravath

For years I had kept these three guys low or off altogether because of their short careers, but now think I have been underestimating the value of their primes. Sisler edges Cravath and Kiner because of his defense and stolen bases (ranked 1 or 2 in the AL between 1917-1922). By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is not much shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher. Cravath gets credit for a couple of PCL seasons.

8.Dobie Moore
9.Billy Pierce
10.Alejandro Oms

Moore does not quite have the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot four decades ago.

Pierce had five seasons with an ERA+ over 130: 201, 148, 141, 136, 133, with a sixth season at 124. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams that had very good defenses. I could be convinced I’m wrong, but I don’t think anyone has made a really good case against him yet.

Chris’ projections for Oms (340 WS, 125 OPS/9056 PA) are pretty close to Van Haltren (344 WS, 122 OPS/8979 PA). This makes sense, in that their career paths are similar: long primes without really high peakes, good (but not great defense) a center field. I like Oms more. He has a better peak, even before allowing that Chris’s projections can suppress peak a little (Dr. C has him with a 133 OPS+).

11.Joe Gordon
12.Wally Schang
13.Jose Mendez

I may be the only balloter who has Gordon on the ballot, and Doerr off. Gordon had a 120 career OPS+ while missing two prime years to the war; Doerr had a 115 OPS+ while missing only one year. Gordon had six seasons with an 120 OPS+ or higher (one in 1943); Doerr had four (one in 1944). Both were A defenders. I have no problem placing Gordon higher, though Doerr will not be a bad pick for the HoM, either.

Schang has issues with playing time and defense, but I still think he’s the best catcher available. Ten seasons with at least 300 PAs and an OPS+ over 120, with excellent on-base percentages.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba. I’ve dropped him a bit, but I’m still very happy to see him in the other Hall.

14.Ned Williamson
15.Tommy Leach

Williamson is still the best pure third baseman available almost eighty years after he retired: huge peak, great glove when it was more of a fielding position. His main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson was a better defender, and had a higher peak.

Leach had been on my ballot for decades. Last year, as I did a ballot re-shuffle, I dropped him off, although it did not feel right. The momentum he’s getting encouraged me to put him back on. Outstanding defense at *two* key positions, five years with an OPS+ over 120.

16-20: Orestes Minoso, Bob Elliott, Cupid Childs, Tommy Bridges, Cool Papa Bell
21-25: George Van Haltren, Roger Bresnahan, Willard Brown, Larry Doyle, Bob Johnson
26-30: Charley Jones, Vic Willis, Burleigh Grimes, Bobby Doerr, , Carl Mays

Biz Mackey: Long career with a couple of big years, but not a lot of what I would define as “prime” seasons. Quincy Trouppe may have been better.

Cool Papa Bell: He *may* have been a Jake Beckley type figure—not a real high peak, but a prime that lasts forever. I would love for someone smarter than me to look at his numbers again.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more. The fact that the HoF committee did not pick him doesn’t encourage me to move him up.

Willard Brown: Often compared to Andre Dawson, whom I'm not a huge fan of.

George Van Haltren: See the Oms comment

Bobby Doerr: See the Gordon comment.
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