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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, March 27, 2006

1973 Ballot

Impressive newbies: Whitey Ford, Dick Groat, and Curt Simmons.

Top-ten returnees: Biz Mackey, Cool Papa Bell, Willard Brown, George Sisler, George Van Haltren, Joe Gordon, and Cannonball Dick Redding.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 27, 2006 at 02:03 PM | 113 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 27, 2006 at 02:10 PM (#1920716)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

2) Cupid Childs-2B (3): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

3) Joe Gordon-2B (4): Best second baseman of the 1940's when you give him appropriate WWII credit. Best major league second baseman for 1940, 1942, 1943, and 1947. Best AL second baseman for 1939 and 1941.

4) Whitey Ford-P (n/e): Not Roberts, but immensely qualified for the Hall of Merit. Consistently good. I'm giving him credit for '52-'53. Best AL pitcher of 1961 and 1963.

5) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (6): Eric's new MLEs may give Brown that extra-added push. His HOF induction probably wont hurt, either.

6) Tony Mullane-P/OF (7): I'm officially the greatest FOTM now. :-) His unusual career is hard to evaluate, but I now think he's worthy. I also give him credit for the time he missed during the mid-1880s.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (8): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (9): Why Kell, but not Elliott? Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

9) Pie Traynor-3B (10): Best white third baseman of his time (though Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

10) Alejandro Oms-CF (5): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

11) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (11): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Mickey Welch-P (14): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

14) Dobie Moore-SS (15): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

15) Bucky Walters-P (n/e): First time on my ballot. The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

Mackey, Bell, Sisler (may hit my ballot in a year or two), Van Haltren, and Redding all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: March 27, 2006 at 02:26 PM (#1920718)
The Chairman’s good, but slightly less good than Roberts – still enough for #3, though. Groat OPS+ 89 and shortish career – off the bottom. Simmons on the bottom, but below Pierce and indeed Quinn.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A) Whitey Ford. Even when you discount for Yankeehood and thus weak competition, he’s up here. 236-106, ERA+132 in 3170 innings (so no Koufax career-length problem.) OPS+28, so no discount here, either.

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

5. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5-4-4-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!
   3. karlmagnus Posted: March 27, 2006 at 02:27 PM (#1920719)
11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

13. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, although lots of UER. Back on ballot to replace Griffith after almost 40 years – he fell off it in 1934.

14. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

15. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

OFF BALLOT

16. Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

20. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

21. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.

22. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759
23. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
24. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
25. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
26. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
27. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
28. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
29. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
30. Billy Pierce.
31. Sal Maglie.
32. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
33. (N/A) Heinie Manush
34. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
35. Joe Gordon. OPS+120, but only 1530 hits. Short and only moderately impressive career; missed 2 war years, but had one easy one. Played for Yankees, so others softened up the pitchers for him – would be more plausible if he hadn’t had a lousy 1946. Have moved him up a bit on comparison with Stephens, but Stephens was better.
36. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
37. Bob Elliott
38. (N/A) Dick Lundy
39. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
40. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
41. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
42. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
43. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
44. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
45. Kiki Cuyler
46. Deacon McGuire
47. Jack Quinn
48. Tony Mullane
49. Pye Traynor
50. Jim McCormick
51. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
52. Joe Judge
53. Edd Roush
54. Spotswood Poles.
55. Larry Doyle
56. Curt Simmons 193-183, 3348 IP, ERA+ 111, OPS+11. Redding’s pretty close, Quinn a little better.
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Harry Hooper.
60. Gil Hodges
61. Jules Thomas.
62. Wilbur Cooper
63. Bruce Petway.
64. Jack Clements
65. Bill Monroe
66. Jose Mendez
67. Herb Pennock
68. Chief Bender
69. Ed Konetchy
70. Jesse Tannehill
71. Bobby Veach
72. Lave Cross
73. Tommy Leach.
74. Tom York
   4. Rusty Priske Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:05 PM (#1920743)
PHoM: Sandy Koufax & Quincy Trouppe

1. Willard Brown (1,3,3)
2. George Van Haltren (3,2,2)

Both are quite overdue. I had hoped that two 'backloggers' would go in this year with no qualified new candidates, but apparently people value Ford much higher than I do.

3. Cool Papa Bell (5,4,7)
4. Biz Mackey (4,5,5)

How did Doerr squeak ahead of Mackey?

5. Jake Beckley (6,6,5)
6. Mickey Welch (8,8,8)
7. Tommy Leach (13,10,9)
8. Dobie Moore (7,7,10)
9. George Sisler (9,9,12)
10. Edd Roush (11,13,13)
11. Hugh Duffy (10,11,11)
12. Nellie Fox (12,12,x)

If ANY of the people above get in this year, I will be happy.

13. Tony Mullane (x,x,x)

Back on my radar.

14. Quincy Trouppe (14,14,15)
15. Minnie Minoso (x,x,x)

16-20. Ryan, Redding, Childs, Rice, White
21-25. Smith, Streeter, Sewell, Strong, Gleason
26-30. Kiner, Doyle, Greene, Monroe, Browning
   5. Daryn Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:07 PM (#1920746)
I have Gordon at 20. Minoso is at 21. Brown is at 27. Copying Gadfly, I have instituted a Grade ranking of my candidates. As and Bs would make my version of a Smaller Hall. B minuses and C plusses are borderline. I think it will be interesting to see if some of the Cs get to elect me positions as we get into the backlog. Bresnahan was once as high as 6 on my ballot.

1. Cool Papa Bell (A) – It seems likely he would have exceeded 3000 hits with tremendous speed and great defense in a key position. Hopefully, his last year on the ballot. Or third last year.

2. Whitey Ford (A) – could be as low as fifth, but I love the winning percentage and the normalized ERA+. Clearly an extremely successful pitcher for a long time. A level better than his modern day comp for me, Mussina. Is there anyone else in baseball history who has 15+ seasons and no season with an ERA+ below 100? I can’t find any – Pedro is 14 seasons and counting, but he hasn’t had his decline phase yet. Mussina has 15 seasons and no season with an ERA+ below 98.

3. Mickey Welch (A)
– 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

4. Burleigh Grimes (B+)
– as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Grimes at 4 and Mendez at 15, which results in 7 pitchers on my ballot. Grimes is among the top 50 all-time in Pitching Win Shares.

5. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving.

6. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Biz Mackey (B) – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (14) or Schang (27). Could be his year.

8. Nellie Fox (B)
-- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

9. George Sisler (B) – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

11. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

12. George Van Haltren (C+) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

14. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

15. Jose Mendez (C) – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right (this gap used to be twelve spaces -- now it is four). Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.
   6. TomH Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:28 PM (#1920774)
Anyone else feeling like I am?; that I'm used to putting together a ballot with some no-brainer that is an easy #1, and this week there IS nobody on my list with those quals. It's one thing for me to pontificate and whine about the guys I feel are undervalued here, but even so I admit they all have their flaws. While there are many (20ish) guys I wouldn't MIND electing, there is nobody that I really WANT to honor. I guess this will occur a lot more often on future ballots.
   7. sunnyday2 Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:36 PM (#1920781)
Rusty, not just Ford but people apparently value every pitcher who didn't win 299 games or pitch in the NeLs than you do. Not a single ML pitcher other than Welch and Mullane. Not a single 20C pitcher. I would re-eval my pitcher ratings if my ballot came out like that.
   8. karlmagnus Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:38 PM (#1920783)
Don't have that ptroblem. I really WANT to elect Beckley, Welch, Cicotte and Joss, and every year think they're better than the vast majority of newbies. Of course, that's why my consensus score is low :-((
   9. karlmagnus Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:41 PM (#1920788)
8 refers to 6, BTW
   10. Daryn Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:55 PM (#1920805)
Rusty, don't you think you should flip-flop your 19th and 20th picks? It would be funnier that way. And while we are on that topic, who is your 20th pick?
   11. DavidFoss Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:58 PM (#1920807)
Rusty, don't you think you should flip-flop your 19th and 20th picks? It would be funnier that way.

Better than flipping 28 & 18, I'd say. :-)
   12. DavidFoss Posted: March 27, 2006 at 04:02 PM (#1920811)
Not a single 20C pitcher. I would re-eval my pitcher ratings if my ballot came out like that.

Although I do think he's underrating Ford, 5 of our last 7 inductees have been pitchers (Roberts, Spahn, Koufax, Wynn, Griffith). Its natural that ballots may be pitcher-thin due to this.
   13. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 27, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#1920813)
And while we are on that topic, who is your 20th pick?

Sol White?
   14. DavidFoss Posted: March 27, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#1920822)
While there are many (20ish) guys I wouldn't MIND electing, there is nobody that I really WANT to honor. I guess this will occur a lot more often on future ballots.

Yup. I'm very thankful for those 'wouldn't mind' guys, or it would be like those painful late-20s ballots.

Its turning into a bigger hall than we thought. With no expiration of candidates, the project is transitioning into a veteran's committee. Its the borderline newbies we have to be most careful with.
   15. Daryn Posted: March 27, 2006 at 04:45 PM (#1920847)
Better than flipping 28 & 18, I'd say. :-)

He could just insert this guy at 29.

I'll be here all week -- don't forget to tip your waitresses.
   16. ronw Posted: March 27, 2006 at 05:12 PM (#1920893)
1973 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Dick Redding May be more similar to Spahn/Roberts than we realize.

2. Whitey Ford Closer call than I thought, but with a weak class he rises near the top.

3. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor.

4. Larry Doyle We generally elect hitters of this caliber, no matter what the fielding. I think the 1910’s NL is getting penalized more than the 1950’s AL.

5. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT not really an issue.

6. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951. I see that soon I will have to compare him to Boyer, and I think Boyer wins.

7. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

8.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

9. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

10. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter. Was he Koufax-good though?

11. Willard Brown New numbers boosted him, not the HOF vote.

12. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

13. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

14. Cupid Childs With the rise of Doerr/Gordon, I really looked at Child’s hitting peak recently, and came away less impressed.

15. Minnie Minoso The HOF made a mistake, but they’ve done it before.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

16. George Sisler

17. Cool Papa Bell

18. Ben Taylor

19. Alejandro Oms

20. Rube Waddell

Missing top 10

Joe Gordon – I do see him as very similar to Doerr, but both are off my ballot. (Gordon 172.8 BWS in 1566 G. Evers 18.0 BWS/162 G, Gordon 17.9 BWS/162G, Doerr 17.1 BWS/162G.)


Some of the Newbies

Curt Simmons – In the Bob Friend, Virgil Trucks, Dizzy Trout, Ned Garvin mold as pretty good pitchers who are unappreciated by history.

Dick Groat – As of 1973, is he the best two-sport star since Jim Thorpe?

Lew Burdette – Chick Fraser redux.

Vern Law – These Pirate pitchers were pretty solid through and through, kind of like the ‘40’s Tigers.

Stu Miller – May be the best pure reliever to date (1973).

Smoky Burgess – Who would have thought he was similar to Sherman Lollar as a hitter?

Bill Skowron – Hey, here’s a George Kelly comp! Kelly was a better fielder, though. That’s why Kelly is in the Hall of Fame. That and his teammates.

Johnny Podres – This is next year! Just not for the 1955 SI Sportsman of the Year.

Jim Landis – Near the bottom of a very large OF consideration set.

Earl Battey – Not quite enough career.

Johnny Romano – Underrated hitter, definitely not enough career.

That’s all I will do, for those of you actually reading this far.
   17. yest Posted: March 27, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#1920924)
1973 ballot
Ford and Averill make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Whitey Ford wonder what his record would look like on a normal team with a normal manager usage pattern (makes my personal HoM this year)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
8. Biz Mackey was (almost missed this one) another Cooperstown mistake I don't get Doerr beating him(made my personal HoM in 1949)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
10. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
12. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
13. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
14. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
15. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
19. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
20. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Joe Gordon would need a real lot of war credit to even approach my ballot
Willard Brown, Dick Redding, and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
   18. yest Posted: March 27, 2006 at 05:51 PM (#1920946)
While there are many (20ish) guys I wouldn't MIND electing, there is nobody that I really WANT to honor.
go with a Sisler and Ford ticket and you'll make my week
   19. Mark Donelson Posted: March 27, 2006 at 06:06 PM (#1920960)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. And some other stuff.

Keller and Bresnahan make my pHOM. This looks like it’ll be the second time since I started voting that no one on my ballot gets elected.

1973 ballot:

1. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak.

2. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Still the best nonelected eligible pitcher out there, IMO.

3. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I’m still his best friend, it seems. Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

4. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). It seems many of us agree this era is a bit underrepresented; it’s just that we can’t agree on whether Duffy, the peak candidate, or Van Haltren, the career candidate, deserves to go in. As a peak voter, guess who I choose.

5. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another from that underrepresented era, and another infielder with a great peak.

6. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

7. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

8. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). Looks like a great hitter to me, even if he didn’t walk much.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Perhaps not quite as good as I’d thought for several elections there. Still, an impressive peak by any of my favorite measures.

10. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

11. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers.

12. Joe Gordon (pHOM 1971). My recent 2B reevaluation gave him a decent boost; I like him quite a bit better than the recently elected Doerr. With war credit, he’s clearly worthy.

13. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.

14. Bucky Walters (pHOM 1968). Another underrated pitcher with a solid peak.

15. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). He’s baaaack…and my consensus score plummets again. With a positional adjustment (I give 3Bs and Cs big ones), my system finds even his really short peak worthy.
   20. Mark Donelson Posted: March 27, 2006 at 06:08 PM (#1920963)
16-20: Keller, Sisler (1939), Bresnahan, Redding, C. Jones
21-25: [Reese], Browning, Fox, [Slaughter], Mackey (1958), Leach, Doyle
25-30: Berger, Joss, H. Wilson, Oms, [Doerr], Minoso
31-35: Ford, Chance, Cravath, Pierce, Poles
36-40: [Ashburn], [Lyons], Roush, McCormick, Ryan, McGraw, [Wynn], Elliott
41-45: Burns, Pesky, [Rixey], Welch, [Lemon], Van Haltren, Trout
46-50: Veach, Rizzuto, B. Johnson, Stephens, [W. Foster], Gilliam

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t quite there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, but at #23, he is getting closer to my ballot (with his election looking imminent, this may be as close as he gets).

•Bell. Even with a bump to reduce the smoothing effect of the WS estimates, I still feel he’s just not a peak voter’s type, unless you go entirely on reputation. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Van Haltren. Not a peak voter’s kind of hitter. He’s at #44.

•Sisler. After a demotion some years back, he’s crept back to the edge of my ballot, depending on who the new candidates are. Presently #17.

•Redding. Not quite the peak of my favorite unelected eligible pitchers, but he’s close. At #19.

•Gilliam. Last year’s newbie, but didn’t have time to get beyond “he won’t be on the ballot” then. He’s got some appealing qualities, foremost among them his on-base ability. With some NeL credit, he crawls into the bottom of my top 50.

•Ford. I was expecting to like him more, despite his low WS tallies, but he doesn’t do so well by PRAA either. His ERA+ peak is nice, and his usage patterns do give him a boost, but I can’t see that getting him to my ballot. He looks awfully similar to Billy Pierce overall (and I gave Pierce a bit of a boost over past years as well—had forgotten his usage patterns). Debuts at #31.

•Groat, Simmons, Burdette, Law, Miller, Burgess, Skowron, and Podres gave me a more interesting bunch of not-quites to not-closes than most years. Or maybe we’re just getting into an era where I’m more familiar with this level of player… Anyway, it was interesting to discover that Groat was better than I’d realized, and that Burdette was more mediocre than I’d realized, but none of ‘em is especially close to my ballot.
   21. Rusty Priske Posted: March 27, 2006 at 06:09 PM (#1920965)
David Foss has it right. I am not, in any way 'anti-pitcher'. It is just that the pitchers that I was supporting all got elected (except for Welch). Even after I was relatively down on Koufax, he hit my PHoM this year.


The 'White' at #20 on my ballot is Sol White.
   22. Michael Bass Posted: March 27, 2006 at 06:43 PM (#1921024)
1. Dobie Moore - Hughie-lite, a monster player for not as short as you might think.
2. Jose Mendez - Ed Walsh-lite, probably more criminally underrated than Moore, because his comp, unlike Moore's comp, sailed in. I'll also put forth the comparison to Koufax: His peak was higher (because he actually owned a bat) and longer than Sandy's.
3. Whitey Ford - Because his raw peak is not that high, needs to aboost from two things to get here (from about 8 or 9): 1) His usage pattern, which is both anecdotally and statistically supported, and 2) his postseason performance, which was outstanding (2.71 ERA in 146 innings).
4. Joe Gordon - As good as Doerr with the stick, not as much with the glove. Flaming out early didn't help, but still a great 2B. Moves up a bit upon re-examination of his war credit.
5. Joe Sewell - The ultimate all-prime career.
6. Bucky Walters - I am not quite as alone as I used to be on Bucky. He has the Faber career shape going for him (couple huge years with a long enough career), and I liked Faber.
7. Willard Brown - All the man did was hit; I think he's better than Suttles, who had similar OBP issues, high SLG, but was much less valuable defensively than Brown.
8. Minnie Minoso - Moves up quite a bit with the new MLEs. Are these new numbers a huge change in his case? Not really...but everyone at this point in the ballot is clumped together, and 2 more prime years does nothing but help.
9. Quincy Trouppe - I'm willing to look at him again, but I see all positives from his case, even if he wasn't fabulous with the glove (no evidence he was anything worse than average, though).
10. George Sisler - I only hope Medwick's induction means good things for Sisler's candidacy, because they have similar career shapes, and Sisler is clearly better, IMO.
11. Bob Johnson - Sewell-esque career, though as a corner OF vs. an infielder, thus the difference in their placements.
12. Dick Redding - I don't see the evidence of a super-long career or a super-high peak, but I see more than enough evidence of a long career and a very good peak.
13. Fred Dunlap - One of the 5 best players in baseball for 6 out of 7 years. I'd take him over quite a few people currently in the HOM.
14. Pete Browning - Fielding questions, AA questions are what keep him this low. The man could still hit.
15. Biz Mackey - I think he had a great prime, between his solid hitting and amazing defense. His career essentially ends with his prime, which holds him down this low. Oddly enough, he finally creaps onto my ballot this year (his likely election), after spending his entire candidacy practically in the 16-20 range.

16. Billy Pierce - A little better (less peak, more prime) than Dizzy Trout. As compared to Walters, the peak really hurts him (and the prime is not much better; the career obviously is).

17. Fielder Jones
18. Dizzy Trout
19. Bob Elliot
20. Urban Shocker

21-25: Monroe, Rizzuto, Oms, Bond, Luque
26-30: Van Haltren, Matlock, Williamson, D. Dimaggio, Uhle
31-35: Grimes, Scales, Kiner, B. Taylor, Lundy
36-40: King, Veach, Buffinton, Poles, Harder
41-45: Dean, H. Smith, Mays, Clift, Childs,
46-50: Bartell, Klein, Cross, Garver, Lazzeri


Vargas - I still have zero feel for him. I suspect he would fit into my top 50, but I don't feel I have the numbers at all with which to make an accurate ranking of him. Is there more discussion yet aside from the one post in his thread? (Leaving this on my ballot till I get some more information, dammit! :D )

GVH - #26. Best 90s hitter remaining, not quite enough peak to make my ballot, especially considering that the 90s were not packed with inner circle guys, unlike the era immediately preceeding.

Bell, Off ballot. No peak, not even much prime. I'm open to a reinterpretation of his numbers, but the numbers given right now don't do anything for me.
   23. Adam Schafer Posted: March 27, 2006 at 07:26 PM (#1921115)
Congrats to Bobby Doerr. Very happy to see him go in with our last vote

1. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

2. Whitey Ford - Consistent pitcher. Great career. Adequate peak.

3. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

4. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

5. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

6. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

7. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

8. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

9. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

10. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

11. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

12. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a lot more

13. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

14. Cool Papa Bell - creeps up a little bit to take over this position from Bresnahan

15. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

16. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

17. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

18. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

19. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

20. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.
   24. DL from MN Posted: March 27, 2006 at 09:13 PM (#1921284)
1. Cool Papa Bell - I think the comparison to Ichiro is telling. Ichiro's translated stats didn't tell the whole story either
2. Whitey Ford - A notch better than the rest of the pitchers and I think we're short a few pitchers
3. Bob Johnson - Decent length, consistently good career and I haven't given him minor league credit he may deserve
4. Billy Pierce - Unfortunately Pierce didn't have as many Mickey Mantle stories for the writers
5. Ralph Kiner - best of the short career sluggers
6. Tommy Bridges - I like him best of the remaining war era pitchers
7. Joe Gordon - I had Doerr 3rd last year
8. Biz Mackey - very much deserves to get in, top defensive catcher for many years and just enough bat
9. Dutch Leonard - I've been overlooking him but he fits well into my prime pitchers
10. Minnie Minoso - Solid outfielder could have used an MVP type season to distinguish him from the backlog
11. Virgil Trucks - strong war credit
12. Jake Beckley - clearly he will eventually get in but he might wait longer than anyone
13. Quincy Trouppe - Mexican leagues thought of him as an MVP
14. Charlie Keller - prime slugger played just long enough
15. Bob Elliott - Will still be around to compare to Boyer
16-20. Klein, Van Haltren, Sewell, W Brown, Cravath
21-25. Shocker, F Jones, Mendez, Lazzeri, Waddell
26-30. Trout, Friend, J Ryan, Sisler, Roush
31-36. D Moore, Oms, Leach, Veach, Willis, Redding

Dick Redding is translated as 115 ERA+ in 3500 IP. I prefer his contemporary Shocker with a 124 ERA+ in 2700 IP. I still see Vic Willis and Dick Redding as equivalent value with Willis slightly ahead.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: March 28, 2006 at 03:20 AM (#1921926)
1973 ballot, our (and my) 76th
I continue to be convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.


1. WHITEY FORD - A rare combination of good peak and career length with phenomenal prime. I am amazed he will not be nearly unanimous this year, especially since he deserves some war credit as well.
2. JAKE BECKLEY - Moves back into an elect-me spot.
His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Some parallels to Rixey, who is now a HOMer.

3. COOL PAPA BELL - Maintains a lofty place on my ballot, and this is while conceding that his park and his steals led him to be a bit overrated. But discounting the myth a bit doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career. I love our MLEs, but in this case I think they are keeping out a definite HOMer. Some voters, I believe, are penalizing players for lack of peak even though the MLE system tends to produce that.
4. JOE GORDON - Second straight year as my 3rd backlogger. Candidacies of Doby and Slaughter confirmed that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison. Yeah, it looks weird that his career has no head and no tail; but the body of work is outstanding.
5. RALPH KINER - I like mashers like this, and there's a smidge of war credit, too. Is getting underrated by the electorate, but that may finally be changing. Slugging version of Gordon. How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF?
6. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted. This is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way.
7. BILLY PIERCE - Some interesting comparisons with new HOMer Griffith, but a little less effective, played in a weaker league vs a strong one-league, etc. I think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of the era can beat him out (beyond the Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.
8. CUPID CHILDS - Even this slot may not be high enough. A full-length career for this brutal and underrepresented era is darn impressive. Even discounting 1890 AA, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras.
9. GAVVY CRAVATH - Jumps two spots this year in spite of being ignored for decades by many voters. His uniqueness is starting to grow on me a bit. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
10. GEORGE SISLER - Flipflops with Cravath. The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
11. BOB ELLIOTT - Probably better than HOMer Hack, has returned to my ballot in recent years. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd play all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Amazing how much better a hitter he was than Pie Traynor.
12. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar 7 years ago and onto my ballot 6 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, and other borderline HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
13. MICKEY WELCH - Clawing his way back up the ballot, slowly. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
14. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite is back on the ballot. He's slipped just behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
15. GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but as the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15. Don't think he's a HOMer, but tough to find 15 better. So while I don't root for him to get in this year, I won't rig a vote to try to stop him either.



JUST MISSED
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14th 2 yrs ago, still in the mix. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Had not been on my ballot in many years before recently. Better pick than Mackey.
JOSE MENDEZ - Benefits from a slightly-shortening backlog; so far beating out Bucky Walters for the extra pitcher slot.
JOE SEWELL/BOB JOHNSON/PIE TRAYNOR - All three may get a reevaluation soon; they're due.


TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
WILLARD BROWN - Mediocre OBP and played in a weak league, I still say, take that HOF! I even blaspheme by taking the "hey, the Negro Leagues were tougher" sour grapes for his late-career MLB flop with a grain of salt, frankly.
BIZ MACKEY - Probably will get elected in the HOM soon enough without me. I just don't like mediocre hitters, even if they're pretty good for their position. Fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth in his era? Convince me on that, and maybe he joins the ballot.
   26. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: March 28, 2006 at 10:37 AM (#1922382)
I try to approach this exercise as if I am picking a 25-man roster. What this means is that I have positional quotas: 5 OF, 3 CI, 3 MI, 2 C, 2 UT, 10 P. I am a peak/prime voter for hitters using Win Shares. For pitchers, it's a bit trickier. To start, I look at the careers of the eligible pitchers and compare them to the pitchers in the HOM. Bob Lemon is my personal in/out line -- a pitcher has to be better than Lemon to get a place on my ballot. Lemon and the above-average, long-career family of Faber, Keefe, Ruffing and Rixey represent the bottom rung of legitimate HOM pitchers. For Negro Leaguers, I consider the posted stats and MLEs, as well as the subjective opinions of the players. Also, I give full credit to players who missed time because of World War II and Korea. Also, there are a lot a "matched pairs" on my ballot: Mendez/Redding, Fox/Leach, Pierce/Leonard.

I am in the process of reevaluating pitchers using a measure that is a combination of marginal runs saved and runs saved above average.

1. Whitey Ford - One of the best ever to take the mound, even before the war credit.
2. Charlie Keller - With war credit, "King Kong" had six straight MVP-caliber seasons with two more All-Star level seasons to start his career. Ranks seventh all-time among major league left fielders to date, which puts him ahead of nine other HOMers at the position.
3. Minnie Minoso - Ranks this high because of greater confidence in his career record than the other Negro Leaguers.
4. Dobie Moore - Absolute monster at shortstop. Value comparable to Hughie Jennings, who I liked, but better.
5. Jose Mendez - Mendez and Redding are certifiable HOMers, though I like Mendez's peak a bit more.

6. Dick Redding - Gets bumped up a bit based on subjective opinion, but still a strong candidate.
7. Quincy Trouppe - Love, love, love the MLEs. A catcher who could absolutely rake.
8. Willard Brown - He gets bumped down to this spot because his lack of plate discipline makes projecting career value a bit uncertain.
9. Rube Waddell - Career shape puts him here. Compressed a lot of value into a relatively short career.
10. Cool Papa Bell - MLEs and subjective opinion are totally divergent. I just couldn't imagine leaving him off of the ballot.

11. Nellie Fox - Very closely linked to Leach in terms of value. Both players are underrated by the electorate because they were not eye-popping in any one facet of the game. Edge goes to Fox because of his peak seasons.
12. Tommy Leach - Criminally underrated by the electorate. Sixth-greatest major league third baseman of all-time to date.
13. Biz Mackey - As high as I can place him given his spotty hitting record.
14. Billy Pierce - Pierce and Leonard are very, very similar. I have them ranked 43rd and 46th all-time among pitchers (that is up through 2005).
15. Dutch Leonard - Pedestrian W/L record underrates his effectiveness.

Looking at Pierce and Leonard, they are similar to guys like Cone, Tiant, Stieb and Trucks in that their value is about an equal mix of career and peak/prime.

16. Joe Gordon - Can't cram his way into this ballot sausagefest. He's absolutely a HOMer in my eyes.
17. Dizzy Dean
18. Addie Joss
19. Alejandro Oms
20. Hugh Duffy

21. Ralph Kiner
22. Urban Shocker
23. Lefty Gomez
24. George Sisler - Peak is hugely overrated and didn't really do much with the stick compared to the other greats at the position. Only ranks this high because my team needs a first baseman. But if I think Sisler is one of the biggest HOM mistakes, we're probably doing pretty good. He wasn't peanuts (though my system has him just behind Albert Pujols.)
25. Al Rosen

Other contenders:
George Van Haltren - In an OF backlog with Roush, Cravath, Berger and Veach.
Jake Beckley - It's not happening, ever. At some point, you have to be one of the best three or so layers on your team and push them toward a pennant, but he never really did that.
   27. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: March 28, 2006 at 10:46 AM (#1922384)
To give you an idea on how my system rates pitchers, here's a snapshot of the top 20 eligible pitchers and where they rank all-time so far (I have done 181 pitchers, the vast majority of which are legitimately Top 150 all-time.).

Yes, there is a bit of a timeline that most adversely affects early pitchers (1871-1920) who were not DIPS-friendly.

21. Whitey Ford
41. Rube Waddell
43. Billy Pierce
46. Dutch Leonard
50. Dizzy Dean

53. Addie Joss
54. Urban Shocker
55. Lefty Gomez
56. Noodles Hahn
59. Tommy Bridges

62. Virgil Trucks
69. Vic Willis
70. Silver King
77. Dizzy Trout
80. Harry Brecheen

81. Eddie Cicotte
83. Bucky Walters
86. Bob Friend
88. Eddie Rommel
92. Dolf Luque
   28. DL from MN Posted: March 28, 2006 at 03:13 PM (#1922441)
You left Jose Mendez and Dick Redding off your list, although your ballot has them ahead of Ford so they must be top 20 all-time.
   29. Daryn Posted: March 28, 2006 at 04:33 PM (#1922536)
You left Jose Mendez and Dick Redding off your list, although your ballot has them ahead of <strike>Ford</strike> Waddell so they must be top <strike>20</strike> 40 all-time.

Fixed that for you.
   30. DL from MN Posted: March 28, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#1922564)
Thanks, didn't sleep well.
   31. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: March 28, 2006 at 06:36 PM (#1922766)
DL, that is right. My list doesn't include Negro League pitchers; it is strictly based on major-league statistics. What I do with the Negro Leaguers is eyeball the career projections and see where they best fit on the ballot compared to other pitchers. With Mendez and Redding, I don't have conclusive statistical evidence to argue that they were better than Waddell, but other factors (contemporary opinion, a general inclination to give the benefit of the doubt to Negro Leaguers in direct comparison to major-leaguers) push them ahead.

By the way, the guy who interests me most is Noodles Hahn. I am putting together a conclusive database of all pitchers with at least 1,000 career innings. I went through the career ERA+ leaders on Baseball-Reference and came across Hahn. There was an initial mental barrier toward placing him as highly as he does, considering that he pitched only eight big-league seasons and qualified for the ERA title six times.

However, the more I see, the more I like. Hahn averaged about 318 innings pitched in those six years with an ERA+ in the mid-to-high 130s, so he was able to compress a lot of run prevention value in those six years. Also, his performance indicates that he wasn't a dead-ball fluke who got hit lucky or overly benefited from a great defense. Five of those six years, he was Top 10 in the National League in BB/9 with a second (1903) and first (1904). But he was also a very good strikeout pitcher who finished Top 10 in K/9 for four years with a second (1899) and a third (1900).

I think that being initially considered with the workhorses of the 19th century and the dead-ball aces made Hahn look bad by comparison. However, guys like Hahn, Waddell, Koufax, Dean and Joss have careers that are wholly unique in major-league history: strikeout/control pitchers who pitched a lot of innings in about five to seven seasons. Hahn should definitely be considered a viable candidate by the Dean/Joss crowd.

Career IP/ERA+
Hahn.....2029.3/132
Koufax....2324.3/131
Waddell...2961.3/134
Joss.....2327.0/142
Dean.....1967.3/130

200/275 IP Seasons
Hahn.....6/6
Koufax...5/3
Waddell...10/6
Joss.....7/5
Dean.....5/5

Top 5/Top 10 finishes in BB/9 or K/9
Hahn....5/9
Koufax...9/10
Waddell...10/11
Joss.....8/8
Dean.....7/9
   32. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 28, 2006 at 09:31 PM (#1923177)
James,

Could you post top 5/10 in IP as well? It would give us a better cross-era comparison as far as peak seasons go.

Noodles Hahn is a guy I have never really looked at as he was so far deep into the backlog when I started as a voter in 1935. I will take another look at him when I have the time.
   33. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 28, 2006 at 09:50 PM (#1923220)
Hahn was a good pitcher, but he wasn't nearly durable enough to be spotted on my radar. He makes Addie Joss look like Cy Young. :-)

As for his peak, it was nice but we're not talking Sandy Koufax here.
   34. TomH Posted: March 28, 2006 at 10:08 PM (#1923262)
1973 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

I obviously rank the long primes higher than most here. Sewell, Gordon, Bob Johnson, McGraw, Chance; all lacking a stellar peak and great career length. But deserving IMHO.

1-Whitey Ford {new}
Barely my #1 in a weak class, but it’s hard to ignore a man who won 69% of his decisions. He looks barely better than Walters once you adjust for what teams they were on, so let’s all get on the Bucky Train!
2-Cool Papa Bell (2) [5]
The basestealing of Coleman/Henderson with the CF ability and career length of Mays/Speaker. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer.
3-George Van Haltren (3) [7]
If you adjust his win shares for 20th century season length, he would total over 380. Now THAT, my friends, is a career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
4-Bucky Walters (4) [21]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
5-Joe Gordon (6) [9]
Super prime. Larry Doyle with a much better glove.
6-John McGraw (7) [38]
2nd in RCAP among ALL third basemen for MLB’s first 100 years. And, the HoM is short of 3Bmen. And short of 1890s infielders. And he was a brilliant tactician.
7-Willard Brown (8) [6]
Great slugger and new HoF member.
8-Joe Sewell (9) [17]
Great RCAP, AND very good defense. We will ignore Alan Trammell?
9-Biz Mackey (10) [4]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
10-Billy Pierce (11) [20]
Similar to Bucky Walters. Good value out of the bullpen helps him some.
11-Minnie Minoso (12) [11]
Looks a lot like Bob Johnson. But a teensy bit better.
12-Jake Beckley (14) [13]
Fine career.
13-Ralph Kiner (off) [16]
Great prime. A few penalty points for being in B. Rickey’s doghouse.
14-Frank Chance (13) [50]
Every ballot I howl at the moon.
15-B Johnson (off) [33]
Very good long prime. Dissed by ultra peak-ists and ultra career-ists.

16-18 G Sisler, T Leach, C Childs
19-21 J Mendez, B Monroe, R Bresnahan
22-25 P Traynor, A Oms, P Rizztuo, D Moore
26-28 P Browning, M Welch, W Schang

Others near the ballot:
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Don Newcombe … Great prime. Less disastrous post-season results sure would help
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher…for a while
Dick Redding …could be #3, could be #99. Same with Luke Easter. Same with….
…Gavy Cravath! … might belong also, but it’s real, real hard to tell
   35. rawagman Posted: March 28, 2006 at 11:20 PM (#1923393)
I'm still new at this, so I will preface my top 15 by reminding that I put more stock on a great peak than I do on longevity. That said, longevity does count for something. Also, consistency is very important for longer careers.
1) Hugh Duffy - amazing peak, and consistently playing at a level better than his peers. OPS+ above 100 14 of his 17 seasons. One of the bad "seasons" was only 1 AB long. Bill James rates his fielding as Golg Glove worthy. Scores very well on both gray and black ink tests. HIs only possible negative points are level of competition, which he can't really be blamed for.
2) Whitey Ford - lots of great ink. Not much to add to his argument for inclusion. Interstingly, all of his age 30+ seasons are very comparible with those of Lefty Grove.
3) Dick Redding - credited with a Big Train-esque fastball and several Negro-League no-no's. Extra points for serving in WWI. Check out his 1912 season for peak - a 43-12 record, including a perfect game.
4) Joe Sewell - holds 7 of top 10 all time seasons for lowest batter K%. Great defensive ink as well, leading the AL in putouts (x4), assists (x4) and fielding % (x2).
5) Cool Papa Bell - consistent excellence. So many anecdotes, hard to know where to begin with him.
6) George Sisler - seems like he was playing almost a different game. What if he didn't play for the B's. Ina ddition to his hitting, I'm also impressed by his baserunning - consistently among the SB leaders.
7) Dizzy Dean - makes me think of Koufax in reverse. More points for playing in an offensive era, less points for career arc. Different circumstances. His dominating years were VERY dominating - ERA+'s of 159, 148, 135. - Until the end, was always above 114. Also knew how to hit.
8) Addie Joss - I can't really give him points for dying in his prime, but he was all peak. Career ERA+ of 142, whip under 1.
9) Mickey Welch - marvelous peak years, even considering framework. Very good hitting pitcher as well.
10) Minnie Minoso - difficult to accurately rank with his career being split in several directions. MLB OPS+ of 130 sticks out. Very consistent, very good. Extra merit for the circumstances in which he played.
11) Biz Mackey - from what I understand, he ranks with Josh Gibson and Roy Campanella. Great catching arm.
12) A fresh look at his career made me appreciate his black ink more, especially considering the late start his career had.
13) George Van Haltren - career OPS+ of 121 is impressive. Nice BB/K rates for when the data is available. He dropped a bit in my ballot considering his low ink totals. Still, consistently well-above average.
14) Roger Bresnahan - similar in change to Van Haltren, different position (sometimes) less ink. But consistently above average.
15) Jake Beckley - the third in this trio. Never a huge peak, always very good. Don't see a good reason to give more points by position to a 1B than an OF or a C/OF.



Close calls - Joe Gordon (some credit for the war, but would have liked peak to be higher for that short a career - alternately, the big year to have been '43 instead of '42. '42 screams fluke year to me), Ernie Lombardi (flawed game, but is said to have been the best pure hitter of all time - forget the exact quote, but it's in Lombardi's piece in the Bill James Historical Almanac), Ralph Kiner (may raise in later voting, but some of his ink is deceiving - he gets ink points for GIDP!), Rube Waddell (something also tells me he needs to be researched more for future voting - a lovely peak), Pete Browning (Makes me think about Hugh DUffy, but with nowhere near the defense, and almost entirely against AA/PL competition)
   36. rawagman Posted: March 28, 2006 at 11:34 PM (#1923417)
Excuse me - in 12th spot is Gavy Cravath
   37. Rick A. Posted: March 29, 2006 at 02:24 AM (#1923597)
PHOM
Jimmy Sheckard Yes, Jimmy Sheckard. Didn't think he would ever see my PHOM when he was elected to the HOM, since he was deep in the backlog. However, constant chipping away at the backlog, as well as occasional reevaluations have finally placed him in my PHOM.
Dizzy Dean

1973 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
5.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
6.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
7.Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
8.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
9.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
10.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information. Elected PHOM in 1966.
12.Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
13.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.
14.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
15.Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973

Required Disclosures
Bell and Sisler Just miss my ballot
Gordon Low 30's. Better than Doerr.
Van Haltren In my top 50

New Candidates
Whitey Ford - Just misses my ballot

Off the ballot
16-20 Bresnahan,Minoso,Leach,Monroe,Bell
21-25 Ford,Oms,Waddell,Sisler,Mays
26-30 Roush,Cravath,Johnson,McGraw,Fox
31-35 Gordon,WCooper,Elliott,Trouppe,Doyle
36-40 FJones,Easter,Matlock,Poles,HSmith
41-45 Newcombe,Tiernan,Winters,Rosen,Stephens
46-50 Bond,Schang,Rizzuto,ACooper,Van Haltren
   38. Ardo Posted: March 29, 2006 at 04:31 AM (#1923694)
A question for Joe Dimino and John Murphy:

Hey, I'm back. I voted from 1940-51 inclusive, left for a while, and am ready to return. Now that the backlog has thinned a bit and we have more electees from which to judge "HoM standards", I feel qualified to give my opinion again.

I have posted a sample ballot in the Ballot Discussion thread. Thanks!
   39. Jeff M Posted: March 29, 2006 at 01:19 PM (#1923815)
1973 Ballot

1. Ford, Whitey – I gave war credit and no discount for ball doctoring. In addition to pulling the tough duty pitching against the other AL tough teams during the regular season, let’s not ignore the 22 starts he had against the best team from the NL.

2. Mackey, Biz –My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

3. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

4. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

5. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson.

6. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

7. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

8. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

9. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

10. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

11. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

12. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

13. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

14. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction, though if Doerr is a HoMer so is Gordon.

15. Ryan, Jimmy – Still better than Van Haltren.

Required Disclosure(s):

Van Haltren, George – Groan.

Bell, Cool Papa – Other than the legend, I cannot see anything that puts him in the elite of all time. I’ve got him as a .303/.346/.427 man, with good but not exceptional defense. He’s #40 in my system, neck and neck with Hack Wilson. I guess we are going to elect him, but I can’t figure out why. That stuff about him getting into bed before the lights went out? Not true.

Redding, Dick – Not even part of my consideration set, and my consideration set has 98 members.
   40. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 29, 2006 at 02:42 PM (#1923831)
I have posted a sample ballot in the Ballot Discussion thread. Thanks!

You didn't really have to post a sample ballot since you were a voter in good standing with us, even with your sabbatical. :-)

Welcome back!
   41. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 29, 2006 at 07:09 PM (#1924199)
1974 ballot

PHOM: Whitey Ford and Bill Terry

Kind of an exiciting year as I have two ballot spots open. So I have one old friend back on my ballot and a first-timer.

1. Cupid Childs (3, PHOM) - Baseball's best 2Bman every year except for one between 1890-1897 and teh best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion. He had a very nice peak and good longevity for someone who played his position in his era.

2. Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM) - Another overloked player from the underrepresented 1890's. Best of the era's CF troika due to his superior peak.

3. Whitey Ford (x, PHOM) - I have decided that he is teh best pitcher on the ballot. Not a great peak, but a very goodprime and I am willing to give him some bonus points for his unorthodox usage patterns. Great post-season pitcher as well and deserves war credit. It is a toss-up between he and Redding.

4. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind only Smokey Joe Williams and that ain't bad.

5. Charlie Keller (6, PHOM) - He has quite possibly the best peak on teh board (he or Moore). With war credit I have him with 4 MVP level season and a few seaons just under that level. Just above Kiner as his fielding and OBP edge override Kiner power advantage.

6. Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) - The NeL version of Hughie Jennings. I am not so sure his peak was as high and his career ended abruptly due to his wife's rage and his own stupidity. Either he or Keller has the best peak on the board, however I trust Keller's numbers more than Moore's.

7. Ralph Kiner (8, PHOM) - Seven consecutive HR titles is mighty impressive no matter which way you cut it. Very nice peak.

8. Bucky Walters (9, PHOM) - Best of the WWII era pitcher left on the board. He had a very nice peak in '39-40 and was used a little like Whitye Ford was. Coudl also hit enough to be an asset.

9. Pete Browning (10) - Next in line for my PHOM, it is possible that he was as good as Keller or Kiner, but I am giving him a sizable AA discount. Definitely the best hitter on the board.

10. Joe Gordon (11) - I have him slightly above Bobby Doerr. If we elect Doerr and not Gordon we will have mad ea mistake that most likely has something to do with not giving proer war credit. However, I believe that both are just over the in/out line.

11. Quincey Trouppe (13) - Definitely the best catcher on teh baord, I like him much more than Mackey, whom we are about to elect. A high level of offense at catcher is hard to find, much harder to find than good defensive catchers.

12. George Van Haltren (14) - I guess that someday he will make my PHOM and even the real HOM. I dont' think he was as good as Duffy, but he isnt' a bad choice. GVH is the player that Beckley fans think their guy is. Long, productive career while being a real All-star at his best.

13. Dizzy Dean (15) - Great pitcher when he was at his best, which admittedly was not for very long. If he could have hit a little he would probably be up with Walters.

14. George Sisler (16) - Beck on my ballot after all these years.....
I am not so sure he had a great peak or otherwise he would be up in Keller/Moore territory. He does have a very good prime, however. I dont' add much for his performances post 1922, but they dont' detract from him anyway.

15. Al Rosen (17) - Great peak, probably the best peak I have seen at 3B in my time here since 1935. In some ways this is test run to see hwo comfortable I could become voting for Rosen every year.

16-20 Oms, Brown, Waddell, Bresnahan, Berger
21-25 Mendez, Cravath, Minoso, Fox, Willis
26-30 Pierce, Newcombs, Mackey, Roush, Bell
31-35 Lundy, Rizzuto, Monroe, Veach, Doyle
36-40 Sewell, Shocker, Johnson, Leach, Thomas
41-45 McGraw, Stephens, Wilson, Chance, Traynor
46-50 Cicotte, Burns, Easter, Ryan, Klein

Required Disclosures
17. Willard Brown - It is up in the air as to whether or not Brown will make my ballot or the HOM first. I think he may be the player with the highest degree of variance as far as translating what he may have done in MLB. He may have been a monster, he may have beena complete bust. There is a chance that his game, with so little plate discipline, would not have translated as well from the NeL to MLB as others. Still not a bad selection.
28. Biz Mackey - I am not too impressed by what I see. I see a great defensive catcher that wasn't a difference maker at the plate, with a long career and a middling peak. I ocudl be wrong, therefore I dont think he would be an awful selection, but I prefer Trouppe.
30. Cool Papa Bell - Career seems to be longer with an even lower peak than Mackey's. Again, I coudl be wrong (as I could be with any NeL player) so he isn't the worst selection. However, I will not be advocating for his almost certain induction. I have him about even with Roush and Carey.
   42. Mark Donelson Posted: March 29, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#1924544)
Re Rosen: Come on in, the weather's fine! :)
   43. sunnyday2 Posted: March 29, 2006 at 10:40 PM (#1924652)
J, you scared me there for a second, I thought I was reading Whitey Ford and Ralph Terry.
   44. Thane of Bagarth Posted: March 30, 2006 at 04:41 AM (#1925293)
1973 Ballot

1) Ben Taylor
He's been in the top 5 on my ballot since 1958, but it seems weird that he finally ascends to #1. I’m still not sure why the rest of the electorate sees such a big gap between Taylor and Suttles. I can see why some would have Mule higher, but was the breadth of his support due to there being better record-keeping than when Taylor was playing? Anyhow, for full disclosure: I’m ranking Taylor as if he had a Warp3 total of around 105 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively. I get those numbers based on the WS projections on Taylor’s thread mixed with a little of my own subjectivity.

2) George Van Haltren
Big career #s in Win Shares and WARP1. His 3 year and 5 year peaks in WS are almost identical to Ashburn’s, but WARP3 gives the 5 year edge to Ashburn (46.7 to 39.0).

3) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories make him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent.

4) Dick Redding
5) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

6) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but thanks to 300 extra IP and a OPS+ advantage of 13 points Bucky wins out.

7) Willard Brown
I consider the Andre Dawson comparison to be rather complimentary, as Dawson was a classic “5-tool” player, at least early on in his career. As much as Brown’s lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

8) Fielder Jones
Doesn't have the 130 OPS+ that jumps out at you, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he's a ballot contender: 44.3 in top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.

9) Minnie Minoso

10) Pete Browning
The WARP1-WARP2 (timeline, league strength, etc.) adjustment hits Browning pretty hard, but he was an offensive powerhouse and his numbers still justify a spot on the bottom third of the ballot.

11) Whitey Ford
Not a great peak, but decent career value and war credit get him a ballot spot.

12) Dizzy Trout
Similar WARP career (~87) and 5 yr. peak (~48) to that of Walters, but WS gives Bucky an edge: 248 to 230 career, 132 to 126 5 yr. consecutive peak.

13) Spotswood Poles
14) Alejandro Oms
Like Mendez and Ruffing, Poles and Oms are hard to separate.

15) Joe Gordon
Not terribly far behind Doerr.

Rest of the Top 50
16) Bill Monroe—I’ve been pegging Monroe to Gordon for a while. I could have just as easily pegged him to Doerr which would have him in the top 5 this year.
17) Jimmy Ryan
18) Charlie Keller
19) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.
20) Billy Pierce
21) Dobie Moore—I’m slowly re-evaluating Negro Leaguers and Moore could well move up.
22) Dom DiMaggio
23) Burleigh Grimes
24) Tommy Leach
25) Gavy Cravath
26) Quincy Trouppe—I had him down around #53, but upon taking another look I’m convinced he deserves to be higher than Mackey.
27) Harry Hooper
28) Bob Johnson
29) Edd Roush
30) Bob Elliott
31) Bobby Veach
32) Joe Sewell
33) George Sisler--Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
34) Phil Rizzuto
35) Biz Mackey--I’m not convinced his hitting was strong enough to earn him a higher spot.
36) Rabbit Maranville
37) Sam Rice
38) Carl Mays
39) Cy Seymour
40) Wally Berger
41) Hugh Duffy
42) Dick Lundy
43) Jake Beckley—I like Taylor a lot more.
44) Lon Warneke
45) George Burns
46) Roy Thomas
47) Kiki Cuyler
48) Lefty O’Doul
49) Leon Day
50) Dutch Leonard
   45. Rob_Wood Posted: March 30, 2006 at 05:18 AM (#1925344)
1973 ballot:

1. Whitey Ford - clear number one on this ballot
2. Jake Beckley - very good career when 1b was more of a key defensive position
3. George Van Haltren - star centerfielder of the 1890s
4. Joe Gordon - top middle infieder now that Doerr has been elected
5. Bob Johnson - underrated outfielder stuck on poor teams
6. Willard Brown - great negro league slugger
7. Ralph Kiner - way underrated by the group
8. Cupid Childs - best remaining 1890s middle infielder
9. Nellie Fox - more than a singles hitter
10. Bob Elliott - underappreciated third baseman
11. George Sisler - I think he ultimately deserves HOM
12. Cool Papa Bell - moving up a smidge on my ballot
13. Dobie Moore - another tough case
14. Tommy Bridges - deserves another look (better than Pierce)
15. Joe Sewell - resurfaces on my ballot
---
16-20. Edd Roush, Pie Traynor, Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, Tommy Leach

Not voting for group top ten: Biz Mackey (I'll likely never have voted for Mackey before he is elected) and Dick Redding (also way down my list).
   46. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 30, 2006 at 07:27 AM (#1925496)
Sorry for scaring you sunny. Bill Terry is kinda a forgotten guy around here. I wonder how many have him in their PHOMs? I had him 4th when he was elected and it took me this long to get him in.
   47. Jim Sp Posted: March 30, 2006 at 07:43 AM (#1925518)
PHoM Ford and Willard Brown.

Groat, Burgess, Simmons, Romano, Battey memorable but well below the line.


1)Ford--add in two years of war credit. PHoM 1973.
2)Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one. PHoM in 1970.
3)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
5)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
6)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
7)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
8)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
9)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too. PHoM in 1966.
10)Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. Compare to Julian Javier, his hitting was way above replacement.
11)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right. PHoM in 1970.
12)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
13)Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs. PHoM 1972.
14)Willard Brown-- I’m still concerned about the terrible plate discipline and terrible ML flop. PHoM 1973.
15)Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit. 10 top 10 seasons in AL ERA+.

Van Haltren--#75, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Sisler--#84, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Redding--#40.
Moore--#32, I didn’t vote for Jennings either.
Beckley--#17
   48. Al Peterson Posted: March 30, 2006 at 04:32 PM (#1925764)
1973 ballot. Three from my last ballot are in now so who takes their place?

1. Whitey Ford(-). Gotta do it…

Announcer No. 1: Hall of Famer Whitey Ford now on the field pleading with the crowd for ... for some kind of sanity.

Announcer No. 2: Uh-oh, and a barrage of pretzels now knocking Whitey unconscious.

Announcer No. 1: Wow. This is uh ... This is a black day for baseball.

2. Dick Redding (2). So the HOF missed him – doesn’t take away from the fact he could pitch well.

3. Edd Roush (4). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

4. Bob Johnson (5). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

5. Jimmy Ryan (6). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

6. Rube Waddell (7). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.

7. Tommy Leach (8). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little.

8. Biz Mackey (10). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

9. Hugh Duffy (11). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s.

10. Cool Papa Bell (12). Speed game particularly suited for the Negro Leagues. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

11. Frank Chance (13). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. Had some speed for his day as well.

12. Billy Pierce (14). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

13. Dobie Moore (15). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

14. Alejandro Oms (16). Sweet-swinging outfielder, probably have a harder time projecting him since he got to the States more rarely than some other foreign-born players.

15. Tony Mullane (18). Count in the house! Apollo of the Box shows up every 15 years or so on the ballot, maybe a bit longer this time as the ballot thins. Have him higher than Welch for the era despite playing in the AA.

16-20: Sewell, Minoso, Childs, Mendez, F Jones
21-25: Van Haltren, Browning, Berger, Poles, Bridges
26-30: Kiner, Sisler, Easter, Byrd, Gordon
31-35: Willard Brown, Keller, Lundy, Shocker, Veach
36-40: Ben Taylor, Joss, Elliot, Stephens, McGraw
41-45: Trout, D Leonard, Beckley, Doyle, Trouppe
46-50: Willis, Cicotte, Maranville, Bancroft, C Mays

Top 10 Returnees: Sisler (#27), Van Haltren (#21), Willard Brown (#31), Gordon (#30), Minoso (#17). We’re splitting hairs when it comes down to spots 10 and below on my ballot. Guys are good, no doubt, and should rise again to see their names among the top 15. That is if they don’t get elected first…

New guys: Groat, Simmons did good things but they are not going to be seeing my ballot.
   49. Max Parkinson Posted: March 30, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#1925782)
1973 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Ford and Earl Averill – getting into the backlog)

1. Dick Redding

One of the 3 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Redding, Mendez and Waddell), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly great peak pitcher.

4. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak.

5. George Sisler

George’s case was made in from ’17 to ‘22 – anything he did afterwards adds or subtracts little.

6. Whitey Ford

Some World Series bonus gets him here instead of the 13-16 range.

7. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Cool Papa Bell

Without a colour line, we would have had a good/great defensive CF with 3,000 hits. Obviously that type of player is a no-brainer for Cooperstown, but I’d run out of reasons why that shouldn’t be honoured here as well.

10. Rube Waddell

Welcome back to the ballot. Love me those punches, Rube.

11. John McGraw

Went PHoM a couple of years ago.

12. Joe Sewell
13. Biz Mackey

Finally got him into the MP HoM last year, along with the two pitchers.

14. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

15. Willard Brown

16-20. Burns (good), Minoso, Williamson, Veach, B. Taylor
21-25. Lazzeri, Bancroft, B. Johnson, Trouppe, Konetchy
26-30. Duffy, Hooper, Childs, Cuyler, Monroe
31-35. Klein, Youngs, Tiernan, Kiner, Keller (Hello, peak OFs)
36-40. F. Jones, Traynor, Roush, Gordon, Walters
41-45. Shocker, Schang, Leach, Beckley, B. Bradley
46-50. Ryan, Cicotte, Nicholson, Chance, B. Pierce

Previous Top 10s:
Joe Gordon is at 39.
Beckley is 44.

GVH is not my kind of hitter (decent prime but not a great peak). He’s at 86.
   50. SWW Posted: March 30, 2006 at 06:39 PM (#1926066)
Whoever gets in this year is pretty lucky, because they sure aren’t getting in next year.

<u>1973 Ballot</u>
1)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
With the recent elections of Griffith and Wynn, I’ve become more resolute than ever that Burleigh Grimes is unjustifiably overlooked by this electorate. A standout National League pitcher of his era. The best possible combination of prime and career, several seasons as one of the best pitchers in the game. His numbers compare quite favorably to this year’s Shiniest New Toy. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
Great career numbers. Overwhelming contemporary acclaim. I liked Max Carey. That’ll do. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
3)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
A tremendous high with decent career filler. As a HOM member, he would follow in the footsteps of guys like Medwick and Averill. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)James Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
Looking at his vote ranking, he’s the poster child for “close but no cigar.” His numbers are not as gaudy as those of Gibson or Santop, but they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. Recent activities in Cooperstown have not affected his placement one iota. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
5)Edward Charles Ford – “Whitey”, “The Chairman of the Board”
I was a little sluggish on Whitey at first, owing to the relatively flat career arc and the fact that he only placed in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares once. But the ink and HOF scores boost his case, and his sterling postseasons also work in his favor. He’s got room to move up, although I somehow doubt he’ll need it. 52nd on Sporting News Top 100. 54th on SABR Top 100. 62nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 87th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 31st on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
6)Edd J Roush
Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
7)Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
The reconsideration of his Negro League performance helped a little, but another look at his major league numbers helped even more. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. Definitely the best left fielder on the ballot. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
8)Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I have him at the head of a pack of very good second basemen, including recent inductee Doerr. Slight edge for six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. It’s close, though.
9)Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Easier to swallow than the mess of pitchers, though. I do like me some center fielders.
10)Willard Jessie Brown – “Home Run”
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. The new plaque in upstate New York is reassuring, but not a factor in his placement here.
11)Joseph Lowell Gordon
Demonstrates what may be the harshest effect of the war of any strong candidate for election. His numbers suffer so significantly upon his return. His outstanding prime, plus five years along the ten best in WS in the AL, keep him this high, although I had ranked Doerr higher. 92nd on Maury Allen Top 100.
12)Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
13)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
14)Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Redding’s a little bit career, Mendez is a little bit peak, and I really can’t make up my mind between them. (When’s the last time anybody voted a tie?) He yo-yos on and off my ballot, and he’ll spend another one just off.
15)José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
I’m not thrilled about this. The recent HOF doings had an impact, but that was such a mixed bag, I’m questioning how much weight it actually deserves. In comparing Mendez and Redding, Cannonball has the edge in career WS, while José offers a prime that projects out to monstrous numbers.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangeable with Jimmy Ryan, and I don’t support either one. Similar to Pete Browning, too. Only finished in the Top 10 in Win Shares in his league once. Although , since that’s also true of Whitey Ford, that may not mean as much as I thought. He’s probably due for a review.
   51. andrew siegel Posted: March 30, 2006 at 07:51 PM (#1926198)
With a new baby and little free time, I'm recycling last week's comments with a few necessary revisions:

(1) Edd Roush (2nd)--My new system shows him as the most qualified 20th century position player on the ballot; his leage-ranks in OPS+ are in accord; and the other Hall snapped him up. He gets downgrades to lack of durability, league quality, and WS's infatuation with CF's, but is the best flawed candidate in a field where all have flaws.
(2) Dobie Moore (3rd)--On my new system, he is a borderline HoMer if his top 7 seasons total 194 WS (as shown early in his thread) and a clear HoMer if they were around 210. Right now, my personal calculations have them at 207, but that may drop on further study.
(3) Minnie Minoso (4th)-- The big mover; doesn't blow you away on either prime or career value, but the two together add up to an impressive HoM resume. Adding 40 WS to the career totals and shifting to an objective calculation of prime both contribute to his rise.
(4) Hugh Duffy (5th)--Even without a season-length adjustment, he is the fifth most qualified position player on the ballot under my system; with one, he'd be number one. On the other hand, his offensive WS are extremely implausible given the underlying data. This rank continues to be a compromise but at some point I need to make a choice.
(5) George Van Haltren (6th)-- I continue to grow slightly less enamored each election; he is now at the point where one more negative adjustment could drop him 10 places.
(6) Whitey Ford (new)--A conservative ranking. He gets mucho extra credit for usage patterns but starts out from a lower perch than you might think due to his extraordinary defensive support.
(7) Jake Beckley (7th)--My WS-based system doesn't like him at all, but, here, I think the system is wrong. He's a smidge behind GVH in offensive value and a smidge behind in defensive value over a slightly longer career. How can they be far apart on anyone's ballot?
(8) Jose Mendez (8th)--Similar career value to Koufax, but his prime is slightly better as he manintained his peak slightly longer.
(9) Joe Gordon (9th)-- Leads a very tightly packed group of IF candidates that includes Sewell, (Doerr), (Hack), Elliot, Childs, and Doyle. I think that for his position and era, Gordon had the best bat of the group.
(10) Tommy Leach (10th)--I lost him in the shuffle; mea culpa. If you consider him an IF candidate, he looks a lot like the Gordon, etc. group. If you consider him a long-career, turn-of-the-century guy, he looks a lot like GVH and Beckley. If you consider him a 20th-century OF/1B candidate with some extra defensive value, he scores out near Minoso and Sisler. All in all, belongs with these guys.
(11) George Sisler (11th)-- My system overrates him in some ways (by, for example, calculating prime based on the exact number of good years he had and adopting WS's low replacemnt level when calculating career value) but underrates him in other ways (by, for example, not giving him extra credit for playing in the tougher league and adopting WS's artifically low-value for pre-1920 1B defense). Letting those biases cancel each other out, he lands here.
(12) Joe Sewell (13th)--On further review, I now have him slightly ahead of Doerr and Elliot.
(13) Quincy Trouppe (15th)-- I have lingering concerns about league quality but translations try to deal with that. The least rembered great 20th century player.
(14) Billy Pierce (14th)--Bounces back onto the ballot based on comparisons with Koufax. Put up very similar value to Sandy albeit it in a very different fashion.
(15) Alejandro Oms (off/16th)--Slides back on.

Willard Brown--league quality and OBP issues push him down to about 18th

Bell--Not quite enough bat, ranks somewhere between 20th and 25th.

Mackey--Not nearly enough bat, ranks in the 30's.

Redding--Numbers that I have seen don't match the reputation; ranks in the late 20's largely based on reputation.
   52. Chris Fluit Posted: March 30, 2006 at 08:43 PM (#1926287)
Hello everyone. I'm a long-term lurker, first-time voter. And by long-time lurker, I mean that I remember when the debates about Joe Start and Cal McVey were the hot topics. So that means I've been lurking since the 1908 election or thereabouts. And now, for a variety of reasons, I've decided to join in on the fun.

I posted this yesterday to the Ballot Discussion thread. After receiving some confirmation, and a few questions, I was told that I could go ahead and post here.

1. Whitey Ford, P. One of the best peaks on the ballot with outstanding years in '55, '58, '60, '61 and '63. A long prime landing in top ten lists for ERA, Wins and Strikeouts ten times. And all of that gives him one of the best careers on the ballot as well.

2. Cool Papa Bell, OF. There are other outfielders on this ballot with better peaks, but Bell had a long, long prime. And his career numbers for hits and stolen bases make him a close comparison to Max Carey who was inducted fairly easily.

3. Willard Brown, OF. At first look, I wasn't sure what all of the fuss was about as his career on-base and slugging are both kind of low. But when I looked at his peak and prime numbers, and gave him sufficient war credit, he jumped way up.

4. Cannonball Dick Redding, P. The MLEs of 234-174 put him between Ford and Billy Pierce which lands Redding right about here.

5. Jose Mendez, P. His MLEs are slightly lower than Redding but still just ahead of Pierce.

6. Billy Pierce, P. He had a very solid four year prime from 1955 to 1958. And he regularly ranked in top ten lists for WHIP, Ks per 9 IP, Ks and Complete Games for 8 or 9 seasons. He's a notch below Whitey Ford in every category but still one of the best candidates on the ballot.

7. Minnie Minoso, OF. Entered the majors and was immediately among the All-Stars for his first 9 seasons, picking up numerous top ten finishes in average, on-base percentage, runs, total bases, stolen bases and doubles. Outside of 1954 when he led the league in total bases, he doesn't have a lot of black ink. However, credit for his early years in the Negro leagues gives him enough career value to make him a very solid candidate.

8. Nellie Fox, 2B. I know that a lot of HoM'ers don't like the counting stats but I think there's some value in being the guy who actually got it done. With regular appearances in the top ten lists for average and hits (8 and 10 times respectively), Fox has an enviable prime. And his top ten appearances for total bases, doubles and triples (4, 5 and 11) show that he was more than just a singles slap-hitter.

9. Quincy Trouppe, C. He had a better peak than Fox but his prime wasn't quite as long.

10. Hugh Duffy, OF. A number of years ago, I did a lot of research on the 1890s and Hugh Duffy was a player that impressed me quite a bit. Looking into the numbers for the Hall of Merit, I was glad to discover that my impression of him held up. He has a solid peak with big years in 1890, '91, '94 and '97 and was routinely among the All-Star caliber players for a seven-year period from 1891-97.

11. George Sisler, 1B. His peak isn't quite as long as Duffy's as Sisler was only among the very best for a three-year period from 1920-22. However, he had a longer prime, picking up top ten slots in average, stolen bases, total bases and hits 8, 9, 9 and 11 times. Also, the career numbers aren't as bad as the Hall of Merit discussion led me to believe.

12. Ralph Kiner, OF. At his best, he was as good at Sisler, though more of a slugger. But he wasn't at his best as long as Sisler was and his career numbers end up pretty short.

13. Alejandro Oms, OF. Kiner turned out to be a fairly good comparison in terms of length of prime and career value. I'm a little more sure of Kiner's numbers though so Oms slips in just behind.

14. Jake Beckley, 1B. Never among the very best, but he was among the very good for a long time and his career numbers are among the best on the ballot.

15. Mickey Welch, P. A pitching version of Beckley: never among the very best, but he was among the very good for a long time and his career numbers are among the best on the ballot.

Required Disclosures:

Biz Mackey, C. He's 18th after my initial research, though I have to admit that he looks an awful lot like Ernie Lombardi which means the voters are either under-valuing Lombardi or over-valuing Mackey.

George Van Haltren, OF. As I mentioned during my Hugh Duffy tidbits, I've done a lot of research on the 1890s before joining this project. Van Haltren didn't impress me then and he doesn't impress me now. He was never one of the best players in the game and he wasn't even among the very good for all that long, maybe 5 years. He's nowhere near my ballot and I don't think he ever will be.

Joe Gordon, 2B. I've got him 16th and he'll easily make my ballot when another backlogger makes the Hall. War credit gives him a pretty strong prime, but his career numbers are still a little less impressive than those of Beckley and Welch.
   53. Dolf Lucky Posted: March 30, 2006 at 10:44 PM (#1926524)
1 (2)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

2 (5)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

3 (4)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

4 (7)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

5 (-)Whitey Ford--Definitely debuting higher than I expected. Played a long time, never had a bad year, and had a solid peak.

6 (8)Ralph Kiner--7 straight years leading the league in homers. Obviously, the career length leaves something to be desired, but Kiner was very dominant for a considerable period.

7 (9)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

8 (12)Dom Dimaggio--Give credit for the missed WWII years and I see Richie Ashburn lite.

9 (13)Billy Pierce--Is in the same career WARP ballpark as Bob Lemon, albeit with considerably less peak.

10 (15)Joe Gordon--Another career gutted by the war. War truly is hell.

11 (11)George Sisler--An old favorite of mine. With more pitchers getting elected recently, it's easier to put his name back on the ballot.

12 (-)Nellie Fox--Interesting to support a player with a career OPS+ of 94, but apparently had a pretty slick glove, and has fairly solid career numbers.

13 (10)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

14 (-)Burleigh Grimes--I like the peak/career combo, and he keeps popping back up as a name to include towards the bottom of the ballot.

15 (14)Rube Waddell--10 straight years being in the top 5 in strikeouts. 7 straight years leading the league in K/9. Career ERA+ of 134. Dominant.

16 Vern Stephens
17 Bob Elliott
18 Urban Shocker
19 Johnny Sain
20 Joe Sewell

Top 10 omissions: Cool Papa and the Biz lack the necessary peak to be ballot worthy. Redding and Van Haltren are mired in positionaly gluts. I took a closer look at Willard Brown, who has MLE's of 122 OPS+ at 8800 PA. I'll give him another look as soon as Jimmy Ryan and Heinie Manush become attractive candidates again.
   54. Mike Webber Posted: March 30, 2006 at 11:40 PM (#1926610)
Using Win Shares as my main tool with a little bit of peak adjustment.

1)WHITEY FORD – Would like him better if he had one huge season, but if he did he would be breezing in.
2)EDD ROUSH – Do I sense my best friend is gaining momentum? Maybe I should start banging the drum again. Long career, solid peak with 3 MVP type seasons. I bought the recent bio by Susan Dellinger, will be looking for some persuasive tidbits.
3)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Those Pirate teams he played on were awfully good.
4)JOE GORDON 5 times in top 10 of MVP voting, in the all-star game every year from 1939 to 1949 except his two war seasons.
5)RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot.
6)COOL PAPA BELL – Long career, great anecdotal evidence.
7)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares.
8)CARL MAYS – I think his strong peak moves him ahead Griffith and Warneke, but just barely.
9)PIE TRAYNOR – I’ve been reading the comments of the people who vote for Elliot over him closely, because I think they are the top two 3B in the consideration set.
10)MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner, career vs. peak argument.
11)DICK REDDING – Moved him after re-examining his thread.
12)BILLY PIERCE – consistently good, maybe not enough peak to be really high on the ballot.
13)GEORGE SISLER – enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.
14)ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger and Schang are both ahead of Mackey IMO.
15)JOE SEWELL – Best available shortstop.

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang and Lombardi
Willard Brown – too many question marks for me. Would not put Andre Dawson ahead of anyone on my ballot.
   55. sunnyday2 Posted: March 31, 2006 at 12:14 AM (#1926664)
1973

Whitey Ford and Eppa Rixey go PHoM--4 PHoM pitchers in 2 years!

1. Dobie Moore (2 last week-2-2, PHoM 1942)—still the best peak position player available

2. George Sisler (3-3-3, PHoM 1938)—excellent point made this past week; his good and bad years stack up nicely against Early Wynn’s but the same is also true of Robin Roberts, both had 7.5 years of normal superstar pattern from beginning of career, then fell off a cliff

3. Whitey Ford (new, PHoM 1973)—he’s no Robin Roberts but rates higher on my ballot than Sandy Koufax did last year, to my surprise

4. Rube Waddell (6-10-7, PHoM 1932)—bounces back up based on comparison with Koufax and Ford and the other peak/prime pitchers; Rube and Whitey are interchangeable

5. Pete Browning (4-4-4, PHoM 1961)
6. Ralph Kiner (5-5-5, PHoM 1964)—more big peak hitters

7. Addie Joss (13-14-13, PHoM 1967)—moves up after pitcher re-eval

8. Tommy Bond (8-11-11, PHoM 1929)—also bounces back up based on comparison of big peak pitchers; I guess I am now among those who think we are light of pitchers

9. Jose Mendez (9-6-6, PHoM 1957)—big peak pitcher, newly enshrined in Cooperstown, but drops down a tad based on pitcher re-evaluation

10. Nellie Fox (10-7-x, PHoM 1971)—best available 2B

11. Willard Brown (11-8-8, PHoM 1966)—big peak/prime/career hitter, now also a member of that “other” Hall

12. Minnie Minoso (12-9-9, PHoM 1970)—comps are Brown and Enos Slaughter, speaking from a peak/prime standpoint


13. Dick Redding (14-12-10, PHoM 1968)—I am not discouraged by the Cooperstown vote

(13b. Eppa Rixey, PHoM 1973, just a schnipple ahead of Griffith and Gordon and Averill)

14. Joe Gordon (15-14-12)—held back by being virtually indistinguishable from Doerr, Doyle, Childs and Monroe

(14a. Earl Averill)
(14b. Clark Griffith)
(14c. Stan Hack)—significant shake-up among the next half dozen backloggers—Rixey, Averill, Griffith, Duffy up; Hack and Doerr down

15. Charley Jones (x-15-15, PHoM 1921)—another big hitter in the Kiner mold

Backlog (* = PHoM)

16-20. Duffy, Doyle, (Doerr), Williamson* (my in/out line here) Cicotte, Keller
21-25. Dean, Stephens, Klein, Trouppe, Roush
26-30. Cravath, Sewell, Childs*, (Ruffing), Monroe, Tiernan
31-35. Lundy, Oms, (Wynn), Bob Johnson, Elliott, Bresnahan

Required: Biz Mackey is in the 40s, as I prefer Trouppe and Bresnahan. Van Haltren and Bell, the peakless wonders, remain in consideration, Bell also in the 40s but GVH down in the 70s.
   56. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2006 at 01:41 AM (#1926827)
Pardon me if I missed it, but to what extent is Bell's reputation for "lack of peak" due to the MLEs trending that way?

I mix peak with prime with longevity, so a system which evens out the peaks and valleys to any extent doesn't hurt a voter much in my system.
But most of the resistance to Bell is "lack of peak," so if it's partly a function of the MLEs, then we're WAY overdue in electing him.
   57. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2006 at 01:42 AM (#1926830)
"doesn't hurt a PLAYER much"
   58. karlmagnus Posted: March 31, 2006 at 02:21 AM (#1926897)
MY resistance to Bell has nothing to do with lack of peak, since I like Beckley. However, his OPS+ is only around 100-105, which is nowhere near HOM quality for an outfielder.
   59. sunnyday2 Posted: March 31, 2006 at 05:19 AM (#1927169)
I'm with karl. Even if you assume that MLEs suppress Bell's real peak, how much higher would it be? A "normal" career arc around a 100-105 OPS+ is still not going to be high enough, at least not for me.
   60. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2006 at 02:49 PM (#1927482)
Thanks, guys.
I understand some concerns about Bell, it's just that "lack of peak" seems to be the most popular one. Sounds like you're like me, in looking at the combination.

I think the MLEs underrate his career just a bit, and that he isn't given enough credit for extraordinary baserunning, fielding, and career length.

I'm not a leading proponent of the first two compared to many others, but I see this guy as the exception.
Seems like he's on the elect-me path, regardless.
   61. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 31, 2006 at 03:35 PM (#1927511)
He also seems to have a lack ofpeak when compared to other NeL guys like Moore, Mendez, Brown, Oms, Trouppe. Our MlE's may be suppressing peak, but he is still way below other NeL candidates in that respect.
   62. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 31, 2006 at 03:38 PM (#1927513)
Bell most likely would have had some impressive milestone achievements (hits and stolen bases) had he played in the MLB, so while he's not on my ballot, I'm comfortable with the increasingly inevitability of his induction. As I mentioned to Mike Webber on AIM, Bell is the anti-Koufax: unimpressive peak, but a very long career of sustained quality. Chick Hafey he aint.
   63. rawagman Posted: March 31, 2006 at 03:59 PM (#1927536)
is it 3 electees each year now?
   64. TomH Posted: March 31, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#1927547)
no, it's 2 a year with an occasional "3"; I think the next three-bee election is 1980.
   65. DavidFoss Posted: March 31, 2006 at 04:30 PM (#1927569)
Even if you assume that MLEs suppress Bell's real peak, how much higher would it be? A "normal" career arc around a 100-105 OPS+ is still not going to be high enough, at least not for me.

If anything he's a wider spread of seasonal performance than most 100-105 guys. Its that long period in the prime of his career where he tried to be a slap-hitting switch hitter while his teammates were slugging away in a bandbox that is killing him for me.

He's basically a Max Carey type of candidate. I'm not going to vote for Bell, but there is a precedent.
   66. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 31, 2006 at 05:02 PM (#1927603)
I guess my thing with Bell (and with Mackey) is that I can concede that I am wrong on him (he's at #30 for me and I dont' think of him as a HOMer) becuse of the variance inherent in NeL candidates.
   67. Brent Posted: March 31, 2006 at 05:14 PM (#1927618)
He also seems to have a lack ofpeak when compared to other NeL guys like Moore, Mendez, Brown, Oms, Trouppe. Our MlE's may be suppressing peak, but he is still way below other NeL candidates in that respect.

Let's be careful. Bell's MLEs used the technique of "regression," which flattens out a player's peak, whereas most of the others you're citing did not (Oms being the exception; I'm not sure about Moore - I think his MLEs were done before Chris starting using regression but I'd have to go back to the threads to be sure).

We peak-oriented voters need to understand that:
a) MLEs done without regression can overstate a player's peak because the season-by-season play is often extrapolated from a very small base - sometimes from NeL seasons of as few as 40 games. (The same phenomenon can affect the peaks of some 19th century players.)
b) MLEs done with regression will generally tend to understate peaks, especially when measured by top non-consecutive seasons. Chris designed his regression method to capture the shape of the player's career over 5-year intervals, so measures of 5 or more consecutive seasons should be more comparable to those major league players.

My understanding is that none of the MLEs for pitchers used regression.

For position players, regression was used in the MLEs done by Chris Cobb (beginning with Beckwith, if I remember correctly). Not coincidentally, these are also the players about whom there have been consistent complaints about lack of peak. The MLEs done by Dr. Chaleeko, on the other hand, have not used regression.

Evaluation methods that give considerable weight to highest (3/4/5) non-consecutive seasons will not work accurately for the NeL MLEs. I suggest that you consider substituting other criteria, such as performance over 5-to-7 consecutive seasons.

Regarding Bell, I did a reevaluation when Ashburn became eligible. ( Bell thread # 136) Bell experienced an unusual early-career slump from ages 24 to 28 after taking up switch hitting. If those seasons are left out and we compare his career over 15 quality seasons, the same length as Ashburn's career, and reasonable estimates for the Mexican League seasons are included, Bell's career looks very comparable to (and perhaps better than) Ashburn's. Since I supported Ashburn, I decided to raise Bell's name on my ballot.
   68. Brent Posted: March 31, 2006 at 05:16 PM (#1927626)
I just realized this is the ballot thread - I'm sorry, I should have tried to move this discussion to the discussion thread.
   69. rawagman Posted: March 31, 2006 at 06:16 PM (#1927700)
I'm wondering if there was a discussion thread comparing 1890's Cf's Duffy and Van Haltren?
   70. rawagman Posted: March 31, 2006 at 06:48 PM (#1927761)
never mind - I found it. And added a few things to it, in case anyone is interested.
   71. favre Posted: March 31, 2006 at 07:57 PM (#1927886)
1.Whitey Ford
2.Jake Beckley
3.Rube Waddell

A couple of voters have compared Ford with Mordechai Brown, which seems apt. Like Brown, Ford played in front of great defenses—but like Brown, you have to give a HUGE discount to his ERA+ for him not to be a HoM’r. I have some concerns about his relative lack of innings, but a long prime with a good peak gives him the top spot.

Speaking of long primes… Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons in between where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. Now that is a long, productive prime. For those of you who can’t stand Jake, well, my next five ballot spots goes to short career, high peak guys…

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Has similar IP issues to Ford but, as dolflucky says, the man was dominant.

4.George Sisler
5.Ralph Kiner
6.Gavvy Cravath

For years I had kept these three guys low or off altogether because of their short careers, but now realize I had been underestimating the value of their primes. Sisler edges Cravath and Kiner because of his defense and stolen bases (ranked 1 or 2 in the AL between 1917-1922). By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is only one year shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher. Cravath gets credit for a couple of PCL seasons.

7.Dobie Moore
8.Billy Pierce
9.Alejandro Oms

Moore does not quite have the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot four decades ago.

Pierce had five seasons with an ERA+ over 130: 201, 148, 141, 136, 133, with a sixth season at 124. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams that had very good defenses. I could be convinced I’m wrong, but I don’t think anyone has made a really good case against him yet.

Chris’ projections for Oms (340 WS, 125 OPS/9056 PA) are pretty close to Van Haltren (344 WS, 122 OPS/8979 PA). This makes sense, in that their career paths are similar: long primes without really high peaks, good (but not great defense) at center field. I like Oms more. He has a better peak, even before allowing that Chris’s projections can suppress peak a little (Dr. C has him with a 133 OPS+).

10.Joe Gordon
11.Wally Schang
12.Jose Mendez

I hope Doerr’s induction gives a good push to Joe Gordon: 120 career OPS+ with great defense, while missing two prime years to the war. Schang has issues with playing time and defense, but I still think he’s the best catcher available. Ten seasons with at least 300 PAs and an OPS+ over 120, with excellent on-base percentages.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba. I’ve dropped him a bit, but I’m still very happy to see him in the other Hall.

13.Ned Williamson
14.Tommy Leach
15.Orestes Minoso

Williamson is still the best pure third baseman available almost eighty years after he retired: huge peak, great glove when it was more of a fielding position. His main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson was a better defender, and had a higher peak.

It’s great to see a little momentum for Leach, who has been on my ballot for a long time. I think he’s the best of the “defense” candidates: 109 OPS+ with a lot of stolen bases, A+ defense at both third *and* centerfield, more career WS than any position player on the ballot except Van Haltren.

Minoso is another candidate with a long prime. Similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10,470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to have a lot of distance between the two; in fact, I may have to move Minoso up.

16-20: Bob Elliott, Cupid Childs, Tommy Bridges, Roger Bresnahan, Larry Doyle

Biz Mackey: Long career with a couple of big years, but his projections don't show a lot of what I would define as “prime” seasons. Quincy Trouppe may have been better.

Cool Papa Bell: He *may* have been a Jake Beckley type figure—not a real high peak, but a prime that lasts forever. I would love for someone smarter than me to look at his numbers again.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more. The fact that the HoF committee did not pick him doesn’t encourage me to move him up.

Willard Brown: Often compared to Andre Dawson, whom I’m not a huge fan of.

George Van Haltren: See the Oms comment
   72. OCF Posted: April 01, 2006 at 01:58 AM (#1928457)
1973 ballot.

What kind of voter am I? I have several systems, and I don't totally trust any of them. Not really peak, not really career, (a little more career with pitchers and glove men, a little less with hitters) not really WS, certainly not WARP. So I'm a "seat of the pants" voter. I think my seat was getting too comfortable - time to get up and walk around a little.

1. Whitey Ford (new) Not inner circle, but no one on this ballot is. He's Three-Finger Brown with some career-bulk (in context) advantages.
2. José Mendez (8, 10, 10, 10, 10) Could easily be as good as Koufax.
3. Ralph Kiner (4, 5, 5, 5, 5) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
4. Billy Pierce (--, 4, 4, 4) See his thread for more. Better than Lemon. I like him better than Wynn. One thing to note: he had significant relief usage throughout his career (the old Grove/Johnson/3F Brown pattern), presumably at high leverage.
5. Larry Doyle (1, 3, 2, 2, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
6. Quincy Trouppe (6, 8, 8, 8, 8) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
7. George Van Haltren (2, 4, 3, 3, 3) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
8. Bucky Walters (16, 17, 18, 18, 19) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
9. Orestes Miñoso (--, 13, 6, 6) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value.
10. Joe Sewell (5, 7, 7, 7, 7) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
11. Biz Mackey (7, 9, 9, 9, 9) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Berra didn't have quite the hitting career needed for election as a corner player.
12. Dick Redding (9, 11, 11, 11, 12) A career-value pitching candidate.
13. Jake Beckley (10, 12, 12, 12, 13) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
14. Bob Elliott (11, 13, 14, 13, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
15. Hugh Duffy (15, 16, 17, 16, 17) I had too much space between him and Van Haltren.
16. Mickey Vernon (12, 14, 15, 14, 15) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
17. Willard Brown (13, 15, 16, 15, 16) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
18. Nellie Fox (--, 17, 18) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
19. Cool Papa Bell (21, 22, 23, 19, 20) As he reaches the brink of election, what about the notion that an "ordinary career arc" would give him more peak than we're attributing to him? Remember that he's got a "hole" in the middle for his ill-advised attempt to become a switch hitter. But also - not everyone has an "ordinary career arc," especially "speed" players. Consider Otis Nixon - was there ever a flatter career line than his? But then Willie Wilson did have a career arc, and didn't last forever; it's Wilson that I think Bell most resembles.
20. Phil Rizzuto (17, 18, 19, 20, 21) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
21. Cupid Childs (18, 19, 20, 21, 22) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
22. Joe Gordon (19, 20, 21, 23) Not much to choose from between him and Billy Herman.
23. Tommy Bridges (20, 21, 22, 23, 24) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
24. Edd Roush (23, 22, 23, 24, 24) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
25. George Sisler (23, 24, 25, 25, 26) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
26. Vern Stephens (24, 25, 26, 26, 27)
27. Dobie Moore (26, 27, 28, 28, 29) Short career, high peak.
28. Bob Johnson (27, 28, 29, 29, 30)
29. Frank Chance (28, 29, 30, 30, -)
30. Rube Waddell (30, 29, 30, --)

Dick Groat: a 1900-game career, nearly all of it at SS, apparently an excellent defensive SS. Usually a below-average hitter (not much power, not fast, so-so walks) but with a couple of offensive years that stick up. It's been said a lot around here that that NL of the 50's was (due to integration) a superior league. The headline-makers of that league are yet to become eligible, but if it really was a superior league, shouldn't we be able to find a few more HoMers from its second-line players? That could apply to Groat, but I'd need to see either a little more offense or a little longer career to go for it in his case.

Curt Simmons: RA+ equivalent record 198-174. Best equivalent years (not consecutive): 17-11, 16-10, 16-11. Very good? Yes. HoM? No.

Smokey Burgess: One of baseball history's great figures of fun. He could hit, of course, but even if my scaled RCAA system ranks him ahead of Cooper, Ferrell, Kling, and Schalk, I don't take him seriously as a HoM candidate - if his offense were really that compelling, teams would have found a way to get him more PA.
   73. Brent Posted: April 01, 2006 at 02:04 AM (#1928469)
1973 Ballot:

My personal hall of merit inductees this year are Ford and Mackey.

1. Whitey Ford – Over 12 seasons (1953-56, 57-65) he averaged 18-8, 2.8 wins above team, 234 IP, 117 DERA+, 146 SO, 79 BB. CYA (2-league variety) for 1961; World Series MVP for 1961. (PHoM 1973)

2. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley. (PHoM 1971)

3. Cool Papa Bell – With legendary speed, he hit for average and with mid-range power and was an excellent center fielder; he was a key contributor to three of the greatest teams in the history of black baseball. (PHoM 1968)

4. Orestes Miñoso – A fine, consistent player. He hit for average and with power, ran with speed, and won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1970)

5. Biz Mackey – “His defensive skills were unsurpassed in the history of black baseball . . . In his prime, the switch-hitting Mackey was one of most dangerous hitters in baseball.”—James A. Riley. (PHoM 1973)

6. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

7. Phil Rizzuto – “The best shortstop ever at turning the double play, almost beyond any dispute, was Phil Rizzuto.”—Bill James, TNBJHBA, p. 638. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

8. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

9. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 116 DERA+ (PHoM 1966)

10. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1967)

11. Gavy Cravath – From ages 32-36 his OPS+ stats were 172-160-171-147-153. However, he was just continuing what he’d been doing for years, while he was with Los Angeles at age 26 and with Minneapolis from ages 28-30.

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

13. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 128 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

14. Dick Redding – “One of the great pitchers of black baseball” —James A. Riley.

15. Burleigh Grimes – Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 115 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

Near misses:

16. Don Newcombe
17. Dobie Moore
18. Nellie Fox
19. Charlie Keller
20. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
21. Roger Bresnahan
22. Buzz Arlett
23. Luke Easter
24. Joe Gordon – Good offensive and defensive player, better than Doerr.
25. Johnny Pesky

Other consensus top 10:

39. George Van Haltren – A good player, but his fielding WS rates were low for a player who spent most of his career in CF.

50. George Sisler – Career value was hurt by a lot of throwaway seasons; peak and prime were not as impressive as those of other hitters such as Keller, Cravath, and Kiner.

Other new arrivals:

Dick Groat was a very good player but didn’t make my top 100.
   74. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 02, 2006 at 12:06 AM (#1929563)
1973

1. Jose Mendez: The Hall got him right. Dominant peak/prime candidate with hitting and infielding to boot.

2. Bucky Walters: Strong peak/prime pitching candidate with shoulder years too.

3. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available; the Hall didn’t get him right because it didn’t consider Mexico or North Dakota, nor probably his minor league play.

4. Charley Jones: Best available outfielder; dominant hitter; gets blacklist credit from me.

5. Whitey Ford: HOMer, a little better than Pierce. His peak is frankly not exceptional, though I do appreciate that his WS were gathered in fewer innings than his contemporaries, like Pierce, thanks to Stengel’s usage patterns, and that’s why he’s here and Piece isn’t. I like Mendez and Walters better because of their bigger peaks.

And since I brought up his cheating, I should probably say something about it. Basically, I opened that discussion seeking greater clarity on the constitutionality of dealing with cheaters (proven, alleged, or admitted). I got it, and the counsel was to essentially ignore Ford’s alleged type of cheating in deference to MLB’s ability or inability to punish him appropriately. I don’t really agree that see-no-evil is the most bestest policy, but I’m willing to abide by it en lieu of well-formulated policy of my own, which, obviously, has failed to manifest itself to this date and may not for a while as the implications of various forms of cheating come along, as well as various evidentiary procedures for considering it. Which is all to say that I’m essentially forced to postpone much more hand wringing until the elections of the PED generation, at which point, we’ll likely have more and better evidence to work from.

I guess I also want to add one last point, which is that although baseball may not see scuffing and PEDs as similar and although they have been considered by many posters in our group as generally unequal offenses thus far (presumably due to the secretive nature of PEDs), I believe this is a false dichotomy or false dis-equalization or something like that. We know that defacing/gooing balls has a fairly dramatic effect on movement and run scoring. We know that simply because the elimination of the spit ball played a part in the rise of R/G beginning in 1920. Couldn’t tell you the percentage of impact compared to putting more new balls in play and upper cutting and stuff, but I don’t think it’s presumptive to say that it’s a big part of that change. That being the case, then, we could also argue the same sort of thing about PEDs, though in other direction: that among many other factors conspiring to increase scoring (weightlifting, smaller parks, more bad relievers entering games, the DH, more use of OBP and SLG in evaluating players, etc…), they are responsible for some percentage of the rapid, wholesale rise in R/G. We don’t know the exact percentage, but most of us probably agree that it’s a factor, perhaps even a significant one. Just like the spitter was probably significant to keeping runs off the board.

That’s why I think they are equal or extremely close to equal offenses, and why I was so adamant that we tackle this question. We did, and it’s resolved, for now, to most of our satisfactions, but I think revisiting this topic from time to time, especially as more info comes along about the roid cohort, will probably help us quite a bit in the 2000s. In the meantime, I think we should be careful not to undersell the gravity of defacing/gobbing the ball just because Joe McCarthy, Al Dark, or Davey Johnson had the opportunity to catch a defacing/foreign-substance-abusing pitcher in the act.

6. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with enough career to make good. The Hall’s wrong about him too.

7. Willard Brown: New walk data from Gadfly boosts his placement and solidifies my thoughts on him. I’d love to see what data the HOF committee had to work with.

8. Hugh Duffy: Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line.

9. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF.

10. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me.

11. Pete Browning: This is the olde tyme portion of my ballot. Browning was a great hitter and a pretty rotten fielder, but he’s still HOM material for me.

12. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime candidate.

13. Cupid Childs: The loser of the Leach reconsideration is Childs. He’s a HOMer for me, but he’ll have to wait another year for my support to show up again.

14. Biz Mackey: The Hall got him right, but he’s nevertheless a borderliner in my opinion. The hitting in the second half of his career is desultory and his peak batting skills hardly looked like George Sisler’s to me. But his excellent defense saves the day. Again, he’s a player I’d like to have the Shades of Glory data for.

15. Tommy Leach: Despite announcements that said he would reach number 11 this year, I’ve instead moved him to the final ballot slot. Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose.


16. Alejandro Oms: Borderliner’s borderliner. Love to see the data on him.

17. Burleigh Grimes: Early Wynn’s 1920s doppelganger. He’s not quite as good as Wynn, but close enough that he’s a HOMer.

18. Vic Willis: Shortish career years wise, but a ton of innings. Strange mix of factors including alternately great/porous defense and run support complicate things, but he’s an end-of-the-line HOMer for me.

19. Dick Redding: Who knows? The fact that the Hall passed on him doesn’t bode well, especially since I’ve never made up my mind clearly about him. I think he’s a HOMer, but I’ll be danged if I can sufficiently and articulately prove it to myself or anyone else.

20. Ned Williamson: He’s very nearly a HOMer, I mean really close, razor-thin line.

21. George Van Haltren: I remember when I was his bestest (though not onliest) friend. Some friendships fade away, some blow up, this one’s just sort of cooled. I’m still his friend, just not as friendly as he’d like.

22. George Sisler

23. Edd Roush

24. Arlie Latham

25. Dobie Moore

New dudes

Dick Groat: He went to Duke; I’m glad they’re out of that ridiculous gambling vehicle known as the NCAA tourney; Nuf sed.

Curt Simmons: Hall of the Better Than Average but Not Great (HoBTANG)

Old Guys
Cool Papi Bell: He’s around Max Carey, which is like 50th…

Joe Gordon: I still don’t get the election of Bobby Doerr, so why would I have Gordon any higher? (OK, in truth I “get” the election of BD, but I’m not sure that we took the right guy, in fact, I think I don’t really care for either of them, I mean why not Fred Dunlap then? I’d say that if you’re rooting for Lou Whitaker, you’ll be bitterly disappointed, cause there’s only so many second baseman that we’ll feel good about taking, and Lou’s going to have a tough case with even less peak than Goerr/Doerdan, and which reminds me that isn’t Nellie Fox like just as good as those guys? Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.)
   75. dan b Posted: April 02, 2006 at 03:26 AM (#1929855)
PHoM class of 1973 – Ford and Lemon

1.Ford PHoM 1973. I’m glad he only pitched 2 games in the 1960 World Series.
2.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. The following are at or above the median:
3 year peak (non-consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Keller
5 year peak (consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Duffy, Berger, Keller
8 year peak (non-consecutive) – Duffy, Keller
10 year peak (consecutive) – Duffy, Burns
WS/162 – Keller, Chance, Berger, Rosen, Duffy, McGraw
Career – None
3.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
4.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. Closest thing on ballot to Koufax.
5.Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
6.Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Best WS/162 among 20th century players on this ballot. See Duffy comment above.
7.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
8.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
9.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
10.Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
11.Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
12.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
·3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
·5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
·8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
·WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
·OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
·NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
·HoM Support – Roush forgotten; Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! L
13.Minoso PHoM 1972.
14.Bell PHoM 1968.
15.Brown, Willard
16.Fox Need a 2B to bridge the Jackie to Joe gap
17.Cooper, W. Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942. HoF just admitted the wrong Cooper.
18. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
19.C. Mays
20.Chance
   76. Kelly in SD Posted: April 02, 2006 at 03:49 AM (#1929823)
To recap my balloting:
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots.

I'm a nerd.

1973 Prelim:

PHOM Inductees: Whitey Ford and TBA later this weekend:

1. Mickey Welch - Wrongfully ignored at the beginning of balloting. The weight of the evidence.

2. Charley Jones - Fantastic hitter from 1876-1885. I believe some voters are not taking into account that he was blacklisted for 2.16 seasons. Please see the Keltner List I posted on the Charley Jones/Lip Pike Thread for my reasoning. The weight of the evidence – best player on his teams every year, top 10 or top 5 among position players every year. Great OPS+. Great Grey Ink scores.

3. Pete Browning - Fantastic hitter.

4. Hugh Duffy - Very good hitter and fantastic defender.

Yes, I have my Olde-Timey Teddy Bears. But Jones ranks ahead of the following HoMer LFs in my system: Stovey, Magee, Kelley, Sheckard, Goslin, Wheat, Medwick, and Irvin. Browning ranks ahead of the following HoMer CFs: Averill, Doby, and Ashburn and is comparable in peak, prime, and seasonal to Gore, Snider, Hines, and Hamilton. Duffy is right behind Browning and I feel people have disregarded the fact his A+ outfield grade is made from less than half time in CF.

5. Charlie Keller - Great power and on-base skills. Credit for WWII - 1.75 seasons. 6 years where only Williams, DiMaggio, and Musial were better. Better than Kelley, Sheckard, Goslin, Wheat, Medwick, and Irvin. One of the biggest surprises in this whole experiment.

6. Quincy Troupe - Good hitting catcher who took walks and played forever at a high level. James says he was an All-Star in 23 different leagues, but gives no source. Cut that in half and that is still 11.5 times. Wow.

7. Jose Mendez – see Vic Willis comment

8. Whitey Ford – see Vic Willis comment – doesn’t have the peak because of Stengal’s usage. Only started more than 30 games under Stengal once – only 2 years in the top 10 innings while managed by Stengal. Averaged 3 to 4 more starts against the top 2 teams than would be expected. See my posts on the Ford thread. Plus, 2 years at close to all-star level due to Korea. Plus, the World Series exploits.

9. Bucky Walters – see Vic Willis comment

10. Willard Brown

11. Alejandro Ohms
Brown and Ohms had careers that my system loves – great high-all-star level play for 7 or more years with many other surrounding years. Brown was a phenomenal power hitter. Ohms hit for average and took more walks. Both players are worthy enshrinement in the HoM.

12. Cupid Childs - Dominant second baseman of the 1890s. There is no real competition. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year. There were very few infielders to do well with WS in the 1890s.

13. Vic Willis.
Ranking in League / Majors by win shares:
Ford: 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 7, 8, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 14, 14, 20+
Walters: 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Willis: 1, 1, 2, 2, 5, 8, 9, 9, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 18, 20, 20+
Mendez had a Koufax-ian peak 5 years from 1910 to 1914 with his performances against white teams as a bonus.
1910: 28 win shares would be 7th in the majors, 3rd in NL or 5th in AL behind: Jack Coombs 37, Walter Johnson and Ed Walsh 36, Ford 35, Mathewson 30, Three Finger Brown 29.
1911: 31 win shares would be tied for 3rd in the majors, tied for 3rd in the NL and tied for 1st in the AL behind: GC Alexander 34, Mathewson 32 and tied with Rucker, Johnson, and Walsh
1912: 40+ win shares would be 3rd in the majors, 1st in the NL and 3rd in the AL behind: Johnson 47 and Joe Wood 44 and tied with Walsh 40.
1913: 31 win shares would be 3rd in the majors, 1st in the NL and 3rd in the AL behind: Johnson 54 and Russel 32.
1914: 36 win shares would be tied for 2nd in majors, tied for 1st in NL and 2nd in AL behind: Johnson 38 and tied with Bill James 36.
1923: 21 win shares would be tied for 13th in majors, 5th in NL and 8th in AL.
These numbers could be increased by 1 or 2 each year for batting contributions if you wish.

14. Tommy Leach. 5 times in the top 4 players in NL, plus 2 others in top 7. If you like defense and you believe 3rd base was more important of a defensive position in the Dead-Ball Era, I urge to take a look at him. Also, he was an excellent defensive CF’er. A key, along with Fred Clarke and Honus Wagner to Pittsburgh’s great teams in the first 15 years of the century.

15. Dobie Moore: Holway has him as an All-Star for 6 straight years, 1920 – 1925. Based on Chris Cobb’s numbers from post 7 of the Moore thread, best short stop in the majors in 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924, 1925 and second in 1923. Hit for average and power. I give 4 years of credit for Wrecker play.
   77. Kelly in SD Posted: April 02, 2006 at 03:49 AM (#1929824)
16-20: Chance, Redding, Burns, Kiner, Grimes
Dick Redding is moving closer to my ballot. I had not been giving him any World War I credit. I am now giving him credit and that boosts him some.
Redding ranks by translated win shares:
1911: 27 win shares would rank him 8th behind Mendez and the 5 pitchers listed above plus Ford and Gregg (each had 28)
1915: 40 win shares would rank him 3rd behind Alexander 43 and Johnson 42 and miles ahead of anyone else.
1916: 33 win shares would rank him 4th behind Alexander 44, Ruth 37, and Johnson 36.
1917: 27 win shares would rank him 8th behind Alexander 40, Ruth 36, Cheater 35, Bagby 34, Mays 30, Johnson and Coveleski 29.
1920: 19 win shares would rank him between 16th and 20th in the majors.
1921: 21 win shares would rank him 15th in the majors.
1922: 19 win shares would rank him about 20th in the majors.
Redding is missing a 5th big year that would put him easily on the ballot.

21-25: Cooper, Cravath, Minoso, Mackey, Van Haltren
Mackey lacks the big years that catchers of his era had. Look at Cochrane, Dickey, and Hartnett. Mackey is great defensively and I would not look askance at his election to the HoM, but I do not believe he is the best catcher candidate.
George Van Haltren: He had the over 25 win shares seasons my system likes, but during the 1890s, the best outfielders got 30+ a year. It was the best decade to be an outfielder. GVH does not match his cohort group for achievement.

29. George Sisler: Peak and prime are not high enough to balance out career totals that are not remarkable. Hit counting numbers are greatly influenced by playing in the best batting average park of his day.

30. Joe Gordon: I need to reevaluate 1940s and 1950s infielders. I think he is much better than Bobby Doerr. In neutral parks, Gordon is a much better hitter. I think many voters have not considered the Coors Field-like hitting environment that was Fenway Park in the 1940s. Doerr hit 223 career homers to Gordon’s 253, but he hit 145 of them at Fenway. From the first BJHBA, here are Gordon’s and Doerr’s Road Numbers:
Player G HR AVG OBP SLG
Doerr 911 78 .261 .327 .389
Gordon 797 134 .279 .367 .482
Which one is the better player?

31. Cool Papa Bell: His MLEs just do not back up the reputation.
   78. Chris Fluit Posted: April 02, 2006 at 06:51 AM (#1930219)
So what's the record for the highest number of different candidates receiving first place votes in a single election? We're up to 17 this time around: Beckley, Bell, Bresnahan, Brown, Childs, Duffy, Ford, Grimes, Jones, Lombardi, Mendez, Moore, Redding, Roush, Sisler, Taylor and Welch.
   79. Sean Gilman Posted: April 02, 2006 at 10:53 AM (#1930401)
1973

1. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares (plus a little war credit). According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. (1927)

2. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

4. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

5. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

6. George Sisler (7)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

7. Cool Papa Bell (9)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

8. Hugh Duffy (10)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

9. George Van Haltren (11)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

10. Whitey Ford (-)--Very tough to rank given all the necessary adjustments, placing him at the head of my pitcher backlog seems about right.

11. Jose Mendez (12)--Koufax forces a reevaluation of short career/high peak players. Subsequently, Mendez, Walters, Berger and Redding move up my ballot, consistent with how I’d moved Kiner up a couple years ago.

12. Carl Mays (13)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

13. Biz Mackey (14)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage. (1968)

14. Willard Brown (15)--The most anonymous player on my ballot.

15. Joe Sewell (16)--From almost elected to nearly forgotten, but he'll get in eventually.

16. Edd Roush (17)
17. Minnie Minoso (18)
18. Alejandro Oms (19)
19. Ralph Kiner (20)
20. Nellie Fox (21)
21. Quincy Trouppe (22)
22. Bucky Walters (23)
23. Wally Berger (24)
24. Dick Redding (25)
25. Ed Williamson (26)
26. Vern Stephens (27)
27. Roger Bresnahan (28)
28. Bob Elliott (29)
29. Dave Bancroft (31)
30. Jimmy Ryan (32)
   80. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2006 at 12:02 PM (#1930412)
18
   81. rawagman Posted: April 02, 2006 at 12:20 PM (#1930416)
can someone please post the vote values: how many points for a 1st place, how many for a 2nd place, etc....
   82. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 02, 2006 at 12:27 PM (#1930417)
can someone please post the vote values: how many points for a 1st place, how many for a 2nd place, etc....

For two inductee elections:

24, 23, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6

For three inductee elections:

24, 23, 22, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6
   83. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: April 02, 2006 at 03:05 PM (#1930481)
1973 ballot:

1. Whitey Ford: Consistently good, often great. ERA+ over 100 every season. As good as the Yankees were most of the time he was with them, he had a better W-L% than the team practically every year. Best player eligible. Definitely the chairman of this board. (eligible & PHOM 1973)

2. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. By Bill James’s rankings, about the 65th best player and the 10th best centerfielder so far. (eligible 1948, PHOM 1957)

3. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

4. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. The more analysis there is, the better he looks, and he looked really good already. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

5. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. Was the #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia, now he’s in. (eligible 1949, PHOM 1958)

6. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

7. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

8. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

9. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

10. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

11. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. (eligible 1961)

12. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

13. Willard Brown: Must have been a great bad-ball hitter. Why would anyone throw him a strike? I’ve had trouble making up my mind about him. His being elected to the HOF helps him make it on for the first time. (eligible 1958)

14. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

15. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)


Required comments:
George Van Haltren: I wasn’t that crazy about him in the ‘20s, and the field of candidates is much better and deeper now. Very solid performer, but no suggestion of greatness.
Joe Gordon: He’s lurking, around 20th.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940)

HOM not PHOM: Ashburn, Slaughter, Vance, Averill, Beckwith, Ferrell, Kelley, Sheckard, Jennings, Pike, Pearce, Jackson.

PHOM not HOM: Welch, Grimes, Waddell, Redding, Bresnahan, Mackey, Beckley, Sisler, Sewell, Browning, Duffy, Bell, Minoso.
   84. AJMcCringleberry Posted: April 02, 2006 at 05:26 PM (#1930582)
1. George Van Haltren - Good hitter, good defender, long career.

2. Jose Mendez - Not a long career, but an outstanding peak.

3. Bob Johnson - Great hitter who moves up this high with minor league credit.

4. Willard Brown - Great hitter who played centerfield and shortstop for half his career.

5. Minnie Minoso - Like Johnson gets this high due to minor league credit, wasn't as good a hitter as Indian Bob.

6. Fielder Jones - Great centerfield, great OBP.

7. Bucky Walters - Similar to Mendez, but peak wasn't as good.

8. Joe Sewell - Great shortstop, good hitter. Done at age 34.

9. George Sisler - Very good peak. Could have been great w/o injury.

10. Jimmy Ryan - Similar value to Sisler, but not as big a peak.

11. Bob Elliot - Good defender, very good hitter.

12. Ralph Kiner - Short career, but 7 home run titles and a 149 OPS+.

13. Gavvy Cravath - Great hitter, fantastic peak, not much D

14. Wally Berger - Outstanding peak, but short career.

15. Cool Papa Bell - Very long career. Great speed and D.

16. Nellie Fox
17. Edd Roush
18. Buzz Arlett
19. Dizzy Trout
20. Quincy Trouppe
21. Joe Gordon - Short career keeps him lower.

Cannonball Dick Redding - Other than his 3 year peak he doesn't impress me too much.
Biz Mackey - Not a great hitter and no peak
   85. Delorians Posted: April 02, 2006 at 06:50 PM (#1930660)
re: post 78...now up to 19
   86. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 02, 2006 at 08:17 PM (#1930803)
re: post 78...now up to 19

As long as we don't give away the order of the candidates that are in contention at the present time. ;-)
   87. Andrew M Posted: April 02, 2006 at 10:22 PM (#1930958)
1973 Ballot

1. (new) Whitey Ford. I’m a little uneasy putting him first, but the rules here prevent me from submitting a ballot with a 15-way tie for 7th. Even if you accept that he played on some excellent defensive teams, Ford was remarkably consistent in turning in good season after good season for his entire 16-year career. Add on some war credit, and he seems to me to be the best-qualified player on the ballot.

2. (3) Dobie Moore. I’m more of a prime voter than peak voter, and I was never really on the Hughie Jennings bandwagon, but the evidence presented on his thread suggests that he was a great player for longer than 5 years. There’s a lot about his career we may never know, but with a few years' credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

3. (4) Larry Doyle. I have Doyle higher than most voters because I don’t devalue the 10s NL, I think his defense was probably closer to OK than terrible, and I have an irrational preference for big hitting middle infielders. Doyle was consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., won an MVP award, and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star.

4 (5) Edd Roush. There are some odd things about his career, but he was one of the best players in the NL for a decade, which included a couple of MVP type seasons. I think Bill James has him ranked about right (15-CF).

5. (6) Nellie Fox. Despite what I wrote above about big hitting infielders, I like Fox a lot. He was durable, consistent, got on base a lot, and an was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. It’s a value judgment, of course, but I think that adds up to a player far more valuable than might be suggested by his 94 OPS+.

6. (8) George Sisler. I don’t give him much credit for his post-1922 career, but he was truly an outstanding, if overrated, player for almost a decade before that. To my mind the argument for him is about the same as that as for Medwick or Averill.

7. (9) Minnie Minoso. NeL credit bumps up his career value. Like Sisler, we’ve elected several players he seems comparable to.

8. (10) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs, but I like him better than the three 1890s OFs.

9. (13) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Whitey Ford other then their teammates. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade, with perhaps one year (1955) when there was no one better.

10. (12) Cool Papa Bell. Long career in which he contributed many positive things (speed, fielding, lots of singles) to his teams that may not be reflected in his modest estimated OPS+.

11. (7) Geo. Van Haltren. Like Bell, I’m not sure where to put GVH. His peak wasn’t as high as most of the other players on this ballot, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

12. (11) Rube Waddell. Probably deserves more respect regardless of how troubled he may have been. Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even factoring in concerns about unearned runs and durability, those are some impressive numbers.

13. (14) Joe Gordon. Another big-hitting middle IF. With reasonable war credit, I like Gordon more Doerr, though what happened to him in 1946?

14. (15) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t an much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times. A very solid pitcher who seems easy to overlook, much like his former teammates D. Trout and V. Trucks.

15. (23) Ralph Kiner. 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his shortcomings or short-ish career.

Next 10
16. Bucky Walters
17. Willard Brown
18. Quincy Trouppe
19. Bob Johnson
20. George J. Burns
21. Alejandro Oms
22. Tommie Leach
23. Roger Breshanan
24. Dick Redding
25. Dizzy Dean

Required disclosures:
Biz Mackey. I’m bothered not to have a place for Trouppe on the ballot, and I have Trouppe ahead of Mackey.
Dick Redding. Need to look at him again, but he doesn’t seem to have the peak or career to rise above the starting pitcher glut.
Willard Brown. Just off the ballot
   88. Chris Fluit Posted: April 02, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#1930987)
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy: As long as we don't give away the order of the candidates that are in contention at the present time. ;-)

No worries, Mr. Murphy. I can't speak for anyone else but I think we're just taking delight in how wide open this particular election is shaping up to be.

ps. The current tally of 19 doesn't even crack the top 5 but I'll save that for the results thread.
   89. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 02, 2006 at 10:58 PM (#1931009)
No worries, Mr. Murphy. I can't speak for anyone else but I think we're just taking delight in how wide open this particular election is shaping up to be.

Just a "preemptive strike," Chris. :-) Posters unaware of our rule have occasionally given us an early tally, which could sway later voters.

It wont make any difference next "year," of course. :-)
   90. Ardo Posted: April 03, 2006 at 01:42 AM (#1931593)
1973 Ballot

<u>Only Top 20 outfielders have comments</u>. For my opinion on catchers, infielders, and pitchers, see posts 88-90 and 94-95 in the Ballot Discussion thread.

1. Whitey Ford
2. Jose Mendez
3. Joe Gordon
4. Quincy Trouppe
5. Alejandro Oms

Under-appreciated thus far. Like Jose Mendez, he was a dominant player for almost a decade in very strong Cuban leagues.

6. Billy Pierce
7. Dick Redding
8. Wally Schang
9. Nellie Fox
10. Cool Papa Bell

Some similarities between Bell and Sisler: long careers with good and bad spots, the ability to pitch well, and being absolutely brilliant and scary players at their peaks.

11. George Sisler
12. Orestes Minoso

A longtime team-mate of Nellie Fox, who had a wee bit more value to the White Sox teams of the '50s.

13. Joe Sewell
14. Ralph Kiner

I tend not to promote short-career, poor-defense slugging outfielders, but Kiner's peak is outstanding in a high-value league context.

15. Vic Willis

16-20: Williard Brown, Tommy Leach, Gavvy Cravath, Biz Mackey, Addie Joss.

Brown's extreme lack of plate discipline really bugs me. I comp him to Andres Galaragga, who is not an HoM candidate for that reason alone.

Cravath played in an extreme park in a weak phase for the NL; I have read his thread closely and want him higher, but Kiner is a better candidate.

21-25: Jake Beckley, Tommy Bridges, Larry Doyle, Edd Roush, Charley Jones.
   91. Patrick W Posted: April 03, 2006 at 01:43 AM (#1931596)
1. Willard Brown (3), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) (1966) – I have decided that the consensus is correct: Brown’s career trumps Oms’ peak advantage.
2. Alejandro Oms (4), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Maybe I could drop Oms a little more because the resume is so heavily non-US, but I won’t do that yet.
3. Whitey Ford (n/a), N.Y. (A) SP (’50-’66) (1973) – Nearly equal value to Oms by my ratings, and just a hair below the median ‘Career + Peak’ score for a HOMer (safely above avg. for career only). Rookie penalty says if it’s too close to call, the rookie starts out below. But he’s clearly worthy of election this year.
4. Biz Mackey (5), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) (1967) – Near equal value as Cochrane in my system, but needed the 3000 more AB’s to achieve that. It shouldn’t take long now.
5. Billy Pierce (8), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – With the pitchers this closely together, I’m stepping back from total value, and sorting them by pitching value for the ballot.
6. Joe Gordon (9), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) (1968) – Compares favorably to Doerr. Better bat, shorter career, lesser defender (though not according to Win Shares), more war credit. Weighing it all together, I think Doerr was more valuable. .
7. Dutch Leonard (10), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
8. Dizzy Trout (7), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
9. Bucky Walters (6), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value.
10. Phil Rizzuto (11), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) (1972) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.
--. Larry Doby, Clev. (A), CF (’46-’59) (1973)
11. George Van Haltren (12), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
--. Stan Hack, Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) –
--. Joe Medwick, St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) –
12. Dom DiMaggio (13), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
13. Bob Johnson (14), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
14. Joe Sewell (15), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Might deserve the spot over Rizzuto, but not this year.
15. Ben Taylor (14), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Better than Beckley but they’re both in the P-Hall. Looks better to me than Minoso or C.P.Bell.


George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Cool Papa Bell – Could be on the ballot, but many players can now say that
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   92. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: April 03, 2006 at 05:02 AM (#1932071)
I'm not sure I accept the arguments that the HoM in general has been too restrictive on pitchers, but I've personally been even more restrictive than the electorate in general, so there's some moving up this year. Ford and Redding make my PHoM.

1. Whitey Ford (new) Even with his being spotted in the rotation, with his long record of very good pitching, he's just ahead of the other pitchers. Add in 2 years of war credit and he moves up to the top of the ballot.

2. Willard Brown (2) Moves past Leach and Monroe for 2 main reasons: 1)More recent analysis has made me feel more certain about his value, and less concerned about the walks, and 2)I am concerned about under-representing the late 40s and 50s. Made my PHoM in 1967.

3. Tommy Leach (3) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Funny that he slips after a lot of people pushing for him on the ballot discussion thread, but the season-by-season analysis wasn't flattering. Made my PHoM in 1940.

4. Bill Monroe (4) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Joe Sewell (5) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. The comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. With one possible exception, clearly the best SS on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Dobie Moore (6) The possible exception, because we honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

7. Dick Redding (12) I think I'm settling the Redding/Mendez debate by eventually putting them both in. For now, Daisy-Cutter Dick is ahead because I find his career argument stronger than Mendez' peak one. Makes my PHoM this year.

8. Quincy Trouppe (7) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

9. Cupid Childs (8) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

10. Minnie Minoso (9) I think he's a bit ahead of Medwick & Johnson among corner OF, but it's very hard to be sure. Like Brown, gets a bit of an era boost, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Made my PHoM in 1971

11. Jose Mendez (18) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer.

12. George Van Haltren (10) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM last year.

(12A Red Ruffing, 12B Bobby Doerr)

13. Billy Pierce (24) This could turn right back around next year, but I have to admit there isn't much separating him from Ruffing.

(13A Joe Medwick,)

14. Bob Johnson (14) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.

(14A Richie Ashburn)

15. Gavvy Cravath (15) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Like Rixey, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.

16. Joe Gordon (17) Extremely similar to Doerr.
17. Bus Clarkson (16) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
18. Cool Papa Bell (19) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation.
(18A Max Carey)
19. Jake Beckley. (20) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
20. Biz Mackey (21) I don’t really see him as induction-worthy, but maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
21. Phil Rizzuto (22) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
22. Alejandro Oms (23) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
23. Clark Griffith (25) Still don't see him as much of a standout in his era, but he did compile a lot of good pitching.
(23A Sam Thompson, 23B Rube Foster)
24. Charlie Keller (26) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
25. Nellie Fox (27) Just can't have him ahead of Doerr & Gordon. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
26. Bob Elliott (28) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
27. Ben Taylor (29) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
28. Vern Stephens (30) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto.
(28A Hughie Jennings)
29. Rube Waddell (32) The ERA and strikeouts look impressive, but I don't feel it added up to enough.
30. George Sisler (33) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
31. Roger Bresnahan
32. Ralph Kiner
33. Bobby Veach
34. Tony Lazzeri
35. Bucky Walters
36. Edd Roush
37. Charley Jones
38. Ernie Lombardi
39. Pie Traynor
40. Bill Byrd
   93. DavidFoss Posted: April 03, 2006 at 06:11 AM (#1932270)
1972 recap.

STRIKE hits baseball! A labor stoppage cancelled the first two weeks of games. These games were never made up and in one case (see below) a pennant race was affected.

The NL pennant races were not very dramatic. The Pirates and Reds had sizeable leads for the last two months of the season. The Pirates had a great offense led by Willie Stargell, Richie Hebner and Roberto Clemente and a deep pitching staff led by Steve Blass. The Reds were led by MVP Johnny Bench who rebounded from an off year and new acquisition Joe Morgan who enjoyed his escape from the Astrodome. Tony Perez and Pete Rose also had fine years. Gary Nolan was the bright spot on a patchwork pitching staff. In the NLCS, the Pirates were leading going into the bottom of the ninth of the fifth and deciding game. Bench hit a leadoff homer to tie it up and two hits and two outs later, a wild pitch by Bob Moose let the winning run score.

In the AL, scoring dipped to near 1968 levels which will cause the league to adopt the DH for the next season. Oakland repeated as Western division champions. The White Sox were in first near the end of August but a 4-game losing streak coinciding with a 5-game Athletic winning streak reversed their fortunes and the A's went on to win by five games. MVP Dick Allen led the Sox with an historic season while Mike Epstein, Joe Rudi, Reggie Jackson & Catfish Hunter had great years for the A's. An era came to a close as three-time defending champion Baltimore missed the playoffs. Frank Robinson was traded to the Dodgers and almost every returning member of the 71 offense had a sizeable drop in performance. Despite this, the O's were in the race until when a double-header loss to the Red Sox effectively made it a two team race. The Red Sox led by Reggie Smith and rookie sensation Carlton Fisk led by a half game over the Tigers and went to Detroit for a season ending three game series. The Tigers won the first two games to clinch the division and the Sox won the final game to have the dubious distinction of losing a pennant by a *half game* (86-70 to 85-70). The Tigers were led by Bill Freehan and a part-time Al Kaline. The NLCS also went the full five games. In Game 5, the Tigers scored first with an unearned run in the first, but the A's had a double-steal of home in the 2nd (led by Reggie!) and an unearned run in the fourth to take the lead. Vida Blue pitched the final 4 innings for the save. Reggie would pull his hamstring on that play causing the future Mr. October to sit during the World Series.

The thrilling postseason continued as the World Series also went seven games. Gene Tenace, a 25 year old back-up catcher who hit .225/.307/.339 with five homers in the regular season picked up the slack for the injured Reggie and slugged four homers in the WS to win Series MVP honors. Tenace's six inning double in game seven put the A's up for good.

1973 Ballot

1. Whitey Ford (ne) -- 132 ERA+ in 3170 IP is good enough for #1 on this ballot. As someone has said before, it would have been nice for one of his workhorse years to match his high-ERA+ years.
2. Larry Doyle (3) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
3. John McGraw (4) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
4. Cupid Childs (5) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
5. Dick Redding (6) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
6. Ralph Kiner (7) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
7. Gavvy Cravath (8) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
8. Charley Jones (10) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
9. Biz Mackey (9) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft spot for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
10. George Sisler (11) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
11. Joe Gordon (12) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot.
12. Roger Bresnahan (13) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
13. Joe Sewell (14) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
14. Bob Elliott (15) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
15. Willard Brown (nr) -- Makes my ballot for the first time. The electorate likes him, the HOF likes him and I like him better than Minoso. I'm tough on OF-ers so making my ballot is a compliment to Willard.

16-20. BJohnson, BPierce, Rosen, Browning, Trouppe,
21-25. Chance, Fox, Lombardi, Beckley, Welch,
26-30. DMoore, Minoso, Leach, Waddell, Roush,
31-33. CPBell, Newcombe, BWalters
   94. EricC Posted: April 03, 2006 at 11:33 AM (#1932429)
1973 ballot. A relatively weak class of newcomers. My system really likes the 60s pitchers. I don't know whether that is a fault of the system or not, but I am thinking of ways to tinker it.

1. Wally Schang - Long consistent career with very good bat in the 1910s-1920s AL, in an era when catchers did not catch as many games year in and year out as later.
2. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL.
3. Whitey Ford - Hard to ignore his ERA+.
4. Joe Gordon - Significant WWII credit. I have him above Doerr.
5. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers, behind Blyleven.
6. Cool Papa Bell - Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.
7. Jose Mendez - Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; perhaps a slightly better version of Lefty Gomez.
8. Nellie Fox - WS likes him, WARP doesn't. My system rates IF highly; he jumped with revisions in my league factors.
9. Gil Hodges - For strength of the 1950s NL and for being the best or among the best 1B throughout his prime.
10. Bob Friend - I might be his only friend. Maybe I'm still favoring later pitchers too much, but not as extreme as before. In any case, a lot of quality innings in a relatively strong league.
11. Orestes Minoso - Not an extereme career, but a little credit for ML time missed and a fine prime put him on my ballot for the first time last year.
12. Lefty Gomez - Peak-season bonus for his two Cy-Young type seasons helped to boost him back onto the ballot.
13. Dutch Leonard (Emil)- Not one outstanding quality, but lots of very good in a long career.
14. Billy Pierce - Yet another pitcher with many very good seasons.
15. Curt Simmons - A suprise in my system. Similar case to Pierce. Helped by my league factors which suggest that pitching was stronger in the NL during his time.

Mackey was one of the top NeL catchers and is just off my ballot.
Van Haltren and Beckley are the best unelected 1890s OF and IF.
Sisler was a good player, but because of his injury, his prime wasn't quite long/strong enough for me.
Willard Brown was one of the top NeL hitters of the 1940s. I look forward to the coming NeL statistical encyclopedia to see whether I may be underrating him.
Redding was a fine player, but I'd elect Mendez and Byrd as NeL pitchers first.
   95. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 03, 2006 at 12:32 PM (#1932458)
43 ballots tallied up at this point. Still missing ballots from: DanG, Gadfly, Trevor P., Chris Cobb, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Tiboreau, jimd, KJOK, the Commish, and caspian88.
   96. DanG Posted: April 03, 2006 at 12:35 PM (#1932459)
My #1, #2 and #12 were elected. In 1973, Whitey Ford tries to show how he is better than the Pierce/Newcombe class of pitchers. Mantle and Mathews join the HoM in 1974. The next year, Ken Boyer and Don Drysdale challenge the backlog.

1) Whitey Ford – Easy #1, top 35 pitcher all-time.

2) George Van Haltren (3,3,4) – As the ballot thins out he climbs up again. Now in his 65th year eligible. His day will come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

3) Tommy Leach (4,4,5) – Bounced back to his best finish since 1951. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

4) George Sisler (5,5,6) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

5) Cool Papa Bell (6,6,7) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Moving up.

6) Edd Roush (7,7,8) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he held his ground again last year. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

7) Minnie Minoso (8,8,9) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

8) Biz Mackey (9,9,10) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he may be the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

9) Roger Bresnahan (10,10,11) – Only about eight voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

10) Jimmy Ryan (11,11,12) – As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 15 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes. Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

11) Jake Beckley (13,13,14) - Back, for awhile at least. He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

12) Wally Schang (14,14,15) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

13) Joe Gordon (15,15,--) – I have him with an even 300 career win shares, with credit for WW2 and adjusted to 162-game seasons.

14) Burleigh Grimes – Back after four years off. Has the heft I like in a career. Before 1968, he was last on my ballot in 1945.

15) Dobie Moore – Back after four years off. If there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him.
   97. DavidFoss Posted: April 03, 2006 at 02:32 PM (#1932561)
Don't forget that its a short week! A measley 167 hours. Vote early and often! :-)
   98. Chris Cobb Posted: April 03, 2006 at 02:56 PM (#1932597)
1973 Ballot

3 were elected from my ballot in 1972, from the #1, #6, and #9 spots. Ford is a solid #1; other new arrivals are well short of the ballot.

1. Whitey Ford (n/e). I have him as the #3 pitcher of the 1950s, after Spahn and Roberts. He trails them by quite a bit, but his consistent excellence over many years gives him enough value to place ahead of Redding’s and Mendez’s superior peaks. Adj. rank in 1950s: #8. 2 seasons war credit, 352 career win shares, 156 total peak, peak rate 1961-65 = 33.18/305 ip. 14 seasons at/above average.
2. Dick Redding (2). Reexamination of my system benefits players from 1910s over players from 1920s. It’s hard to get a clear sense of how good his peak was, but his career is #4 among NeL pitchers after Paige, Williams, and Ray Brown. I guess I’m not impressed by his falling short of HoF induction this year. If I had to explain it, I’d guess that they had full and not especially impressive data from the later 1920s, when he was winding down his career managing and ptiching for the not-especially-impressive Brooklyn Royal Giants. What they needed was good dat from the teens, when he was at his peak. Adj. rank in 1910s: #13.5. 1+ seasons war credit. 304 MLE cws, 104 tp, pr 14-18 34.78/365 ip, 10 seasons at/above avg.
3. Willard Brown (3) I haven’t integrated the improved walk rates into my system yet, but downward adjustment of 1920s players moves him past Oms. Cooperstown picking him doesn’t hurt his case with me. Adj. rank in 1940s: #14. 2 seasons war credit. 375 MLE cws, 69 tp, pr 35-39 = 27.40, 12 seasons at/above avg.
4. Joe Gordon (4). Moves up with Brown. Bests Doerr on peak, but both should be HoMers. Adj. rank in 1940s: #15.5. 2 seasons war credit. 317 cws, 64 tp (I increase infielders’ cws and peak ws by 10% when comparing them to other positions), pr 39-43 = 28.52, 11 seasons at/above avg.
5. Jose Mendez (5). Moves up with Redding, but not quite so much. Best pitching peak on the board, and his comeback play in the 1920s gives him enough career value for election, as I see it. And so did Cooperstown, apparently. Adj. rank in 1910s. 14.5. 260 MLE cws, 112 total peak, pr 10-14 = 38.97 / 365 ip, 7 seasons at/above avg.
6. Alejandro Oms (7). Did everything well for a long time. Drops in my rankings somewhat as a result of my reexamination of my division of players between the 1920s and 1930s, but it’s still clear that he belongs. Adj. rank in 1920s: #17. 357 MLE cws, 78 tp, pr 21-25 = 30.11 / 162 g, 9 seasons at/above avg.
7. Minnie Minoso (8). A lot like Ashburn and Oms in that he had a long, strong, consistent prime without having a really outstanding peak (Van Haltren is also in this category, but his performance level was slightly lower than theirs). That, and WARP’s lukewarm view of him are keep him below Doerr and Oms, but I’ll take his lasting, well-rounded game over the sluggers just below. Adj. 1950s rank: #16.5. 3 seasons MLE credit. 353 cws, 73 tp, pr 54-59 = 29.39. 11 seasons at/above avg.
8. Gavvy Cravath (10). Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding and weak competition hold him back. Adj. 1910s rank: #16. 5 seasons MLE credit. 334 cws, 71 tp, pr 13-17 = 32.27, 9 seasons at/above average.
9. Ralph Kiner (11). Great peak versus strong competition. Adj. 1940s rank: #17.5. 2 seasons war credit. 300 cws, 72 tp, pr 47-52 = 33.00, 8 seasons at/above avg.
10. Biz Mackey (12). I still support his elections, but he drops significantly in re-evaluation. I guess I wasn’t impressed by his being elected to the HoF. He drops partly because of my reevaluation of the 1920s borderline candidates, partly because I had been ranking him above his numbers, based on the general idea that his value in the 1930s was underrated by the numbers. When I sat down actually to estimate the degree of underrating that could be going on, it became clear that I had been overcompensating. A revised view of his stats placed him right in the company of other players with long careers as defensive specialists: Rabbit Maranville and Herman Long, both of whom I have decided to rank again where my system puts them, rather than down-grading them because of their poor consensus showing. The Nellie Fox discussion of fielding value has persuaded me that their candidacies have suffered because they have low OPS+ scores, and not necessarily because rigorous arguments have shown them to be poorer players than the comprehensive metrics suggest. So Mackey, Maranville, and Long make a new down-ballot trio of fielding stars in my rankings. Adj. 1920s rank: #20. 390 MLE cws (catcher-adj.), 47 tp, pr 22-28 = 25.23, 10 seasons at/above avg.
11. Rabbit Maranville (13). Back on my ballot for the first time since 1942. Benefits both from reconsideration of 1910s stars and from reconsideration of fielding stars. It should be remembered that he lost a year of his prime to WWI. If the lively ball hadn’t been introduced in the middle of his career, I suspect he would already be in the HoM. Relatively low number of above-average seasons relative to his career is a concern, and I’m going to continue to evaluate Maranville & Long-type infielder careers against the Sewell-type of career for next election, but this ranking represents my current best sense of the relative merits of the two types. Adj. 1910s rank: #17. 1 season war credit. 361 cws, 32 tp, pr 14-19 = 26.78, 8 seasons at/above avg.
12. Herman Long (14). Huge jump back into consideration. This is where my system puts him, and I’ve been ignoring it in favor of the consensus. Then I wonder why I don’t have many infielders on or near my ballot?? Hmm. . . Reassessment of infielder defense will continue next year. Similar career to Maranville. A bit shorter, a bit higher peak. Adj. 1890s rank #18.5. 336 cws, 40 5p, pr 89-93 = 30.54, 8 seasons at/above avg.
   99. Chris Cobb Posted: April 03, 2006 at 02:58 PM (#1932604)
1973 ballot, continued

13. Burleigh Grimes (15). Another 1920s player slides down a bit. His mix of good and bad seasons is peculiar, but he had a lot of good years. I think my system tends to overrate this kind of pitcher slightly, which is why I have him ranked slightly below where it says I should put him. Adj. 1920s rank: #19. 303 cws, 133 tp, pr 20-24 = 27.33 / 325 ip. 11 seasons at/above avg.
14. Billy Pierce (16). Makes my ballot for the first time. Much more consistently good than Grimes, but less heft to his career. Adj. 1950s rank: #19. 282 cws, 107 tp, pr 55-59 = 30.77 / 305 ip, 12 seasons at/above avg.
15. Nellie Fox (18). Makes my ballot for the first time. I think he is worthy of election: he’s right on my all-time in/out line, but that won’t be enough to get him on to the ballot until we get deeper into the backlog in the mid-1970s. I’m pretty certain that Gordon is a stronger candidate, but I’ll be comparing him to Maranville, Long, Childs, Elliott, Rizzuto, Sewell, and Dobie Moore with care over the next couple of years. Adjusted 1950s rank: #20. 316 cws, 52 tp, pr 54-59 = 26.85 (5), 10 at/above avg.

Returning top 10 players not on ballot:

Cool Papa Bell. See #31 below
George Van Haltren. See #17 below.
George Sisler. See #22 below.

These three I have just a little lower than the consensus, and I don’t oppose the election of any of the three. I differ with the consensus more strongly on the other two top 10 candidates not appearing on my ballot.

Dobie Moore. #45. Although he certainly had a very fine peak, I don’t see it as quite enough to compensate for the brevity of his career. Deserves a fresh set of MLEs, however.
Jake Beckley. # 48. Although he certainly had a very fine career, I don’t see it as quite enough to compensate for his lack of peak performance. For Beckley to be a serious candidate as my system sees the matter now first base would have to have been a more important defensive position than center field in the 1890s and the 1900s, and I don’t see the case for that. There were more good defensive first basemen in those days than in the modern game, but the position was also held down by poor athletes or player-managers at the end of their careers. I may still be underrating Beckley, and I am in the process of integrating WARP1 into my ranking system and adjusting its assigned fielding replacement level, so my view of him may yet change, but at present I can’t support his election.

1972 Off-Ballot.

16. Bobo Newsom (17). A lot like Burleigh Grimes, but without the spitball and without the hitting. Adj. 1940s rank: #19.5. 297 cws, 120 tp, pr 36-40 = 30.20 / 305 ip, 11 seasons at/above avg.
17. George Van Haltren (19). Fine prime, but peak performance never approached MVP level of play. Right on my all-time in/out line, I think. Adj. 1890s rank: #20. 379 cws, 47 total peak, pr 93-98 = 27.80, 12 seasons at/above avg.
18. Rube Waddell (20). Adj. 1900s rank: #20.5. 270 cws, 125 tp, pr 02-06 = 38.44 / 365, 9 seasons at/above avg.
19. Mickey Welch (21). Exceedingly hard to rank pre-1893 pitchers vs later players. I rather wish we’d elected Welch back in the day, but I can’t quite see bringing him on to my ballot now. Adj. 1880s rank: #20.5. 415 cws, 184 tp, pr 26.44 / 365, 9 seasons at/above avg.
20. Bucky Walters (22). A few great seasons, but career isn’t all that compelling. Adj. 1940s rank: #20.5. 260 cws, 105 tp, pr 39-44 = 32.37/325, 7 seasons at/above avg.
21. Edd Roush (23). At his best, a very high impact player, but his ranking is hurt because he missed a lot of games. Adj. 1920s rank: #21. 333 cws, 57 tp, pr 17-23 = 33.77, 9 seasons at/ above avg.
22. George Sisler (24). I’ve been a long-time moderate supporter of Sisler, but sustaining that support was leading my ballot to increasingly uncomfortable convolutions. Dropping him down just below the all-time in-out line makes more sense. I wouldn’t regard his election as a significant mistake by any means, but I will no longer advocate for his election. An excellent player during his peak, but sadly diminished after his sinus troubles. Adj. 1920s rank: #22. 327 cws, 62 tp, pr 16-22 = 32.87, 8 seasons at/above avg.
23. Tommy Leach (25). Adj. 1900s rank: #22. 365 cws, 52 tp, pr 01-09 = 29.81, 8 at/above avg.
24. C. Jones (26). Adj. 1880s rank: #23.4. 2+ years blacklist credit. 358 ws, tp 80, pr 78-80, 83-85 = 32.98, 11 seasons at/above avg.
25-30. Byrd #21.5 1940s, Bond #22.5 1870s, Ryan #21.5 1890s, Newcombe #21 1950s, Bresnahan #23 1900s, Arlett #23 1920s.
31-35. CP Bell #25.5 1930s, Childs #24 1890s, Matlock #26.5 1930s, Doyle #18 1910s, Poles #19 1910s.
36-45. Elliott, Mays, Shocker, B. Clarkson, M. Williams, B. Johnson, Schang, Trouppe, Scales, D. Moore.
46-55. Keller, B. Taylor, Beckley, D. Dimaggio, J. Sewell, Lundy, Duffy, Harder, Hoyt, Wi. Cooper.
56-65. Pesky, Cross, York, Cuyler, Hooper, Vernon, Veach, F. Jones, Luque, McGraw.
66-75. Williamson, Rizzuto, Stephens, McCormick, GJ Burns, Fournier, Petway, Monroe, Dean, Adams.
76-83. Tiernan, Browning, Rice, Bancroft, Chance, Day, Mullane, H. Smith.
   100. Trevor P. Posted: April 03, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#1932786)
My #1 and #12 were elected last year.

1) George Van Haltren (2). Consolidated league, long career, and a pretty decent late-career prime according to WARP1. And scads of win shares, for what it's worth. (For what it's worth, I have Jimmy Ryan in my swirling cloud of players just off the ballot, and there's really not that much of a difference between #1 and #20.)
2) Jake Beckley (3). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite alot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
3) Whitey Ford (--). I was prepared to be very skeptical towards Ford's candidacy because of his uberstat similarity to Billy Pierce; instead, I think moving Pierce up higher is the appropriate response.
4) Quincy Trouppe (4). Better than Schang, with more in-season appearances. Probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
5) Cupid Childs (6). Coming into the 1971 ballot, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation underscored how impressive his peak really was.
6) Billy Pierce (9). Whether he was a better overall player than Bob Lemon is up for debate, but my initial study of Pierce definitely suggests he was a better pitcher. Defense-adjusted ERA and PRAA both seem to bear that assertion out. Alternatively, he's sort of like Bucky Walters without a war discount, and not too far off from Ford.
7) Dick Redding (5). See entry for my #15.
8) Edd Roush (7). 110 WARP1 may be excessive, but the discount to WARP3 is overstated. Jumps up when compared to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
9) Bob Elliott (8). Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Win Shares seems to be the only metric keeping Elliott out of serious consideration.
10) Willard Brown (10). If Brown had never posted that 12-for-67 in 1947, I think I would've had less trouble placing him all these years. I'm giving in and placing him 10th this year - Dr. C's win share estimates from 1937 onwards (his "breakthrough" year) are pretty similar to GVH, so he's on the ballot.
11) Alejandro Oms (11). Another centerfielder, though he played more corner than Roush or Van Haltren.
12) Wally Schang (13). Schang isn't that far behind contemporaries like Hartnett and Cochrane when it comes to playing time. 78.0 WARP1 is about one win per full season less than Cochrane.
13) Biz Mackey (14). Durable defensively, and enough offensive impact in his best years to make the ballot.
14) George Sisler (15). Back on the ballot since Griffith's election.
15) Burleigh Grimes (--). I used to vote for Grimes, and now he's back. When I promote someone into the #15 spot it often provokes me into re-assessing players with similar skills who are already on the ballot. Looking at Grimes' peak/career combination made me wonder if I was overrating Dick Redding somewhat. So with Grimes' ballot rebirth, Redding drops a few places to make the gap between the two less glaring.

Disclosures:

Joe Gordon - As I only give about 70% war credit, Gordon cannot quite make the ballot this year. Around #18, ahead of Lazzeri but behind Childs (and the recently elected Doerr).

C.P. Bell - I've re-examined his case, and I still don't see enough contribution offensively to merit a ballot spot. I see Richie Ashburn's walk-filled 110 OPS+ as more preferrable to Bell's estimated 104-107.
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