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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, May 08, 2006

1976 Ballot

Prominent newbies: Bob Allison and Johnny Roseboro.

Top-ten returnees: Willard Brown, George Sisler, Joe Gordon, José Méndez, Minnie Minoso, Cannonball Redding, Dobie Moore, and Hugh Duffy.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 08, 2006 at 12:57 PM | 112 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Kelly in SD Posted: May 15, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2020878)
13. Tommy Leach: PHOM 1966: 5 times in the top 4 players in NL, plus 2 others in top 7. If you like defense and you believe 3rd base was more important of a defensive position in the Dead-Ball Era, I urge to take a look at him. Also, he was an excellent defensive CF’er. A key, along with Fred Clarke and Honus Wagner to Pittsburgh’s great teams in the first 15 years of the century.

14. Dobie Moore: PHOM 1967: Holway has him as an All-Star for 6 straight years, 1920 – 1925. Based on Chris Cobb’s numbers from post 7 of the Moore thread, best short stop in the majors in 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924, 1925 and second in 1923. Hit for average and power. I give 4 years of credit for Wrecker play.

15. Joe Gordon: PHOM 1976: Great power and defense from a defensive position. The best teams for double plays turned in comparison with their expected double plays were the Gordon / Rizzuto Yankees. Best second basemen in the majors 6 times. Big moveup as I rethought how I incorporate a player’s position. Also, I have no idea how anyone could look at Doerr and Gordon and think Doerr was better. In neutral parks, Gordon is a much better hitter. Doerr hit 223 career homers to Gordon’s 253, but he hit 145 of them at Fenway. From the first BJHBA, here are Gordon’s and Doerr’s Road Numbers:
Player G HR AVG OBP SLG
Doerr 911 78 .261 .327 .389
Gordon 797 134 .279 .367 .482
Which one is the better player?

<u>16-20: Chance, Redding, Burns PHOM 1938, Kiner, Minoso</u>
Dick Redding is moving closer to my ballot. I had not been giving him any World War I credit. I am now giving him credit and that boosts him some.
Redding ranks by translated win shares:
1911: 27 win shares would rank him 8th behind Mendez and the 5 pitchers listed above plus Ford and Gregg (each had 28)
1915: 40 win shares would rank him 3rd behind Alexander 43 and Johnson 42 and miles ahead of anyone else.
1916: 33 win shares would rank him 4th behind Alexander 44, Ruth 37, and Johnson 36.
1917: 27 win shares would rank him 8th behind Alexander 40, Ruth 36, Cheater 35, Bagby 34, Mays 30, Johnson and Coveleski 29.
1920: 19 win shares would rank him between 16th and 20th in the majors.
1921: 21 win shares would rank him 15th in the majors.
1922: 19 win shares would rank him about 20th in the majors.
Redding is missing a 5th big year that would put him easily on the ballot.
Kiner’s career is not that long and I give one year of credit for a WWII late start.
Minoso is moving up, but he lacks the big years to push him over the top. Still looking at the 1950s.

<u>21-25: Grimes PHOM 1961, Cooper PHOM 1975, Cravath, Roush PHOM 1940, Van Haltren PHOM 1939</u>

30. George Sisler: Peak and prime are not high enough to balance out career totals that are not remarkable. Hit counting numbers are greatly influenced by playing in the best batting average park of his day.
   102. Ken Fischer Posted: May 15, 2006 at 09:36 PM (#2021079)
1976 Ballot

I just arrived back in Orlando after driving from Southern Cal across the fruited plain. It was a long exhausting haul…even if it took me 6 days. I did get to see the Astros beat up on the Rockies on Friday night at MM Park. I need more time to study Dobie Moore. He may make my ballot next time.

1-Dick Redding
Is this Dick’s time? James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick Redding was given the shaft on February 27.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM. He’s getting closer all the time!

3-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

4-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

5-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

6-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of the most overlooked ballplayers in history…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

7-Ken Boyer 279 WS
I've had a tough time deciding where to rank Boyer. His MVP season pushes into the middle of my ballot.

8-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

9-Gil Hodges 263 WS
Gil would be making big bucks in the AL if he was playing today. He would be a great DH/1B right-handed hitting slugger. He’s always been penalized for having his numbers from the 50s compared to other eras. It may take awhile but Gil will eventually be in the HOM.

10-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Minnie had one of the most interesting careers in baseball history. With a late start he still made 7 All-Star teams. His SB numbers would be off the chart if they ran more in the 50s. Some credit for Negro Leagues.

11-Willard Brown
He didn’t get much of a chance with the Browns. But some reports claim Brown was the top power hitter in the Negro Leagues in the 1940s.

12-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

13-George Sisler 292 WS
Yes…I broke down and added him to my ballot. I had Ralph Kiner next in line and knew I had to take another look. Strong Gray Ink and good Black Ink marks. His OPS ranking dropped in the mid-20s…but he was getting old.

14-Jose Mendez
After more research Jose makes it back on my ballot. John Holway says some records credit Mendez with a 44-2 record in 1909. He was considered the best black pitcher of his time.

15-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

Kiner is now #16 on my depth chart. After further reflection he deserves to be in the top 20…my earlier comparison to Dave Kingman was unfair.

I’m still researching Duffy & Moore...will wait until next ballot to consider moving them up on my depth chart. Right now they barely break my top 50.
   103. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 15, 2006 at 09:38 PM (#2021082)
OK Murphy, you don't have to count me among the MIA anymore for this election.

1976 BALLOT

I have some sympathy to those who would prefer to list but ten. Ellie Howard’s on my ballot, and he’s just to the bad side of my personal in/out line. Sisler’s just the same. In fact most of these guys are really damn close.

I strongly back the first 8-10 on my ballot as legit HOMers (in my vision of it, YHOMMV), but after that we’re not talking about anyone I’m rallying for. So let me inveigh you all in the last moments of voting, vote for Mendez, he’s the man-uh-dez!

1. Jose Mendez: The Hall got him right. Dominant peak/prime candidate with hitting and infielding to boot.

2. Bucky Walters: Strong peak/prime pitching candidate with shoulder years too.

3. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available; the Hall didn’t get him right because it didn’t consider Mexico or North Dakota, nor probably his minor league play.

4. Charley Jones: Best available outfielder; dominant hitter; gets blacklist credit from me. Dang if the Hall didn't get him wrong too.

5. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with enough career to make good. The Hall’s wrong about him too. Sorry Coop, you missed this one.

6. Willard Brown: New walk data from Gadfly boosts his placement and solidifies my thoughts on him. I’d love to see what data the HOF committee had to work with; score one for them on including Brown.

7. Hugh Duffy: Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line. The HOF's got this one.

8. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF. They got this one too.

9. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me. Let's see, 19th C., blacklisted, yeah the HOF won't get him right ever.

10. Pete Browning: This is the olde tyme portion of my ballot. Browning was a great hitter and a pretty rotten fielder, but he’s still HOM material for me. Another easy miss for the HOF.

11. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime candidate. Ditto.

12. Cupid Childs: Love the peak/prime, don’t mind that there’s nothing else. Again with the guys the HOF shoulda got years ago.

13. Tommy Leach: Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose. What, changing positions excuses the HOF?

14. Alejandro Oms: Borderliner’s borderliner. Love to see the data on him.

15. Elston Howard: I mistakenly was looking at a list of MLB-only catchers when I described Howard as likely appearing in the middle of my ballot. He’s just off of it instead, barely but just. He’s right behind Bresnahan and Mackey in my catcher rankings. I’m giving him MiL/NgL credit for 1954 only.

16. Burleigh Grimes: Early Wynn’s 1920s doppelganger. He’s not quite as good as Wynn, but close enough that he’s a HOMer.

17. Vic Willis: Shortish career years wise, but a ton of innings. Strange mix of factors including alternately great/porous defense and run support complicate things, but he’s an end-of-the-line HOMer for me.

18. Dick Redding: Who knows? The fact that the Hall passed on him doesn’t bode well, especially since I’ve never made up my mind clearly about him. I think he’s a HOMer, but I’ll be danged if I can sufficiently and articulately prove it to myself or anyone else.

19. Ned Williamson: He’s very nearly a HOMer, I mean really close, razor-thin line.

20. George Van Haltren: I remember when I was his bestest (though not onliest) friend. Some friendships fade away, some blow up, this one’s just sort of cooled. I’m still his friend, just not as friendly as he’d like.

21. George Sisler

22. Edd Roush

23. Arlie Latham

24. Dolf Luque

25. Dobie Moore

New dudes

Bobby Allison: Allison, my aim is true…which means after the election, you’ll be blue.

Johnny Roseboro: Nice catcher, probably screwed in some way by playing in LA beyond what the park factors say.

Old dudes

Minnie Minoso: Within my top 50.

Joe Gordon: I still don’t get the election of Bobby Doerr, so why would I have Gordon any higher? (OK, in truth I “get” the election of BD, but I’m not sure that we took the right guy, in fact, I think I don’t really care for either of them, I mean why not Fred Dunlap then? I’d say that if you’re rooting for Lou Whitaker, you’ll be bitterly disappointed, cause there’s only so many second baseman that we’ll feel good about taking, and Lou’s going to have a tough case with even less peak than Goerr/Doerdan, and which reminds me that isn’t Nellie Fox, like, just as good as those guys? Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.)

Ralph Kiner: I’m not a huge fan. Like Minoso he’s around my top 50. I actually see them as virtually equally good candidates. Notice I didn’t say equally good players or similar players. Just candidates. They both have a similar number of plusses and minuses, and as far as their type of player is concerned, they do just about as well as you can without getting my out and out endorsement for HOM election. Either is a “tolerable error” in my judgment, but neither is someone I’ll vote for happily.
   104. Mark Donelson Posted: May 15, 2006 at 09:40 PM (#2021089)
It may take awhile but Gil will eventually be in the HOM.

Do you mean HOF? I think he's got a better chance there, frankly...
   105. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 15, 2006 at 09:57 PM (#2021109)
OK Murphy, you don't have to count me among the MIA anymore for this election.

Since you had made a few posts prior to posting your ballot, I knew you wouldn't let us down. :-)
   106. Max Parkinson Posted: May 15, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#2021120)
1976 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold)

1. Dick Redding

One of the 3 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Redding, Mendez and Waddell), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly great peak pitcher.

4. George Sisler

George’s case was made in from ’17 to ‘22 – anything he did afterwards adds or subtracts little.

5. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

8. Rube Waddell

Welcome back to the ballot. Love me those punches, Rube.

9. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

10. Joe Sewell
11. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

12. (N)Ed Williamson
13. Ben Taylor

He’d slide nicely in the 1B void.

14. George Burns (the good one)
15. Charlie Keller




16-20. W. Brown, Minoso, Veach, Pierce, Walters
21-25. Lazzeri, Bancroft, Duffy, Konetchy, B. Johnson
26-30. Trouppe, Cuyler, Childs, Youngs, Klein
31-35. Monroe, Tiernan, Kiner, Hooper, Gordon
36-40. F. Jones, Traynor, Shocker, Boyer, Bradley
41-45. Roush, Cicotte, Howard, Leach, Chance
46-50. Griffin, Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang, Beckley

Previous Top 10s:
Joe Gordon is at 35.
Beckley is 50.

GVH is not in the top 100.
   107. Chris Cobb Posted: May 15, 2006 at 10:27 PM (#2021133)
1976 Ballot

Ranking went right down to the wire this year! So this is what I have for 1976. I have made a number of changes in my attempt to improve my evaluation of infielders. I hope to undertake defenses of some of the big changes I’ve made for next time.

1. Willard Brown (2). Review of his credentials this week gives me more confidence that he is the best player available. His career is hard to assess, but his success in many different leagues is well documented, and he has more upside than anybody else.
2. Joe Gordon (3). Best infielder available. Nobody else matches his combination of hitting, stellar defense, and durability. Career is short, but there’s suggestive evidence that he was a major-league talent in the minors at both the beginning and the end of his career.
3. Rabbit Maranville (9). Why isn’t he on more ballots?? Deeper study of WARP and fielding brings Maranville towards an elect-me spot. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
4. Dick Redding (1). Slips behind Maranville among 1910s & early 20s stars. I’d happily elect him, but I see him as slightly less brilliant than the three above. I hope to review his MLEs before the next election.
5. Jose Mendez (4). Pretty much holding steady with the best pitching peak among eligibles. I hope to reveiw his MLEs before the next election.
6. Gavvy Cravath (6). Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding and weak competition hold him back. My study of top 7 consecutive seasons placed his peak below Keller, Kiner, and Sisler, but he has nearly three top seasons in the AA outside that peak.
7. Herman Long (10). Like Maranville, he tracks upward as I place more weight on infield defense.
8. Ralph Kiner (7). Great peak versus strong competition. A little more peak than Cravath, but quite a bit less prime.
9. Billy Pierce (13). Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is about to gain momentum.
10. Dave Bancroft (n/e). Top beneficiary this week of my reexamination of WARP and fielding value. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
11. George Sisler. (20). I’ve changed my mind on him again. After another reassessment of first-base defense, I conclude that his peak is underrated because his above-average first-base defense prior to his illness is substantially underrated. With the best position-player peak available, he comes back onto my ballot.
12. Jake Beckley (47). Well, look who else benefits from my reassessment of first-base defense! No great years, but with his defense properly credited, he was steadily an above-average player for a very long time. He makes my ballot for the first time, in his 65th year of eligibility.
13. Tommy Leach. (24). Greater credit for fielding brings him back onto the ballot.
14. Nellie Fox (14). Holds steady. We need to elect some more infielders from the 1950s!
15. Bucky Walters (18). Favre’s period surveys help identify Walters as a player deserving of a little more support. I think that players who peaked during the war years have been getting a little less credit than they deserve, so I bring Walters onto my ballot for the first time.

The next 15
16. Joe Sewell
17. Cupid Childs
18. Rube Waddell
19. Minnie Minoso
20. Charlie Keller
21. Charley Jones
22. Alejandro Oms
23. Ben Taylor
24. Lave Cross
25. Burleigh Grimes
26. Edd Roush
27. Mickey Welch
28. Bob Elliott
29. Ken Boyer
30. Bill Byrd

Returning Consensus Top 10 not on my ballot:

Minnie Minoso: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. I don’t oppose his election, but I think there are more deserving, overlooked infield candidates.

Dobie Moore: an excellent peak, but not high enough or long enough to offset his lack of career value. I somewhat prefer several other contemporary shortstops.

Hugh Duffy: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. I think Duffy is being seriously overvalued by the electorate. I can see giving Duffy some extra credit beyond his stats for his team’s outperforming their stats, but that should only go so far.

Joe Sewell: Just off my ballot, which is his highest ranking ever from me. Slight preference for Bancroft. I no longer oppose his election, as I long did, but I don’t advocate for it at present.
   108. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 15, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#2021159)
And the election tightens up again...
   109. KJOK Posted: May 15, 2006 at 10:49 PM (#2021164)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

4. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

5. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

6. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

7. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

8. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

9. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

10. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

11. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

12. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

13. KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, , 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

14. CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

15. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He’s back! He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:
NEWBIES OF NOTE:
NONE close.
RETURNEES:

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

JOE GORDON, 2B.29 POW, .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr and Childs.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still ahead of him, such as Doerr,
Childs, & Gordon.
   110. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 15, 2006 at 11:09 PM (#2021189)
After another week to look at them, I’m more certain that Drysdale is clearly HoM-worthy, and that Boyer needs a broader perspective. Also, this year it seemed I got to spot #4 on the ballot and had issues with everybody after that. Finally, a shift at the bottom might make this a pivotal ballot in the election (although, really they all are.)

Drysdale and Ruffing make my PHoM.

1. Willard Brown (3) More recent analysis has made me feel more certain about his value, and less concerned about the walks. Best combination of quality hitting and career length on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1967.

2. Tommy Leach (4) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Made my PHoM in 1940.

3. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

4. Quincy Trouppe (5) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

5. Dick Redding (6) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in. For now, Daisy-Cutter Dick is ahead because I find his career argument stronger than Mendez' peak one. Made my PHoM in 1973.

(5A Don Drysdale)

6. Joe Sewell (10) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. The comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. Bancroft may be underrated, but Sewell’s batting advantage is enough to keep him ahead for me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. Dobie Moore (4) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much, but they do drop him back behind Sewell. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

8. Minnie Minoso (7) I think he's a bit ahead of Medwick & Johnson among corner OF, but it's very hard to be sure. Gets a bit of an era boost – even though the AL was the weaker league, overall I think the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Made my PHoM in 1971

9. George Van Haltren (8) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM lin 1972

10. Jose Mendez (9) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer. Made my PHoM in 1975.

11. Cupid Childs (11) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932

(11A Red Ruffing)

12. Rube Waddell (20) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing.

13. Joe Gordon (17) Extremely similar to Doerr, although I could live with Doerr in and Gordon out. (Of course, there’s a good chance this ballot could render the issue moot.)

14. Gavvy Cravath (16) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Like Minoso, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.

15. Ken Boyer (12) Haven’t updated my WARP numbers for everyone else, so I’m worried about overrating him. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question.

(15A Joe Medwick)
16. Bob Johnson (14) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.
17. Billy Pierce (15) There really isn’t much separating him from Ruffing or Drysdale when you look at the totality, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive.
18. Bus Clarkson (18) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
19. Alejandro Oms (22) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
(19A Richie Ashburn, 19B Biz Mackey)
20. Jake Beckley. (19) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
(20A Clark Griffith)
21. Charlie Keller (24) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
(21A Cool Papa Bell, 21B Max Carey)
22. Phil Rizzuto (23) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
23. Ben Taylor (25) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
(23A Sam Thompson, 23B Rube Foster)
24. Bob Elliott (26) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson and Boyer. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
25. Edd Roush (27) Maybe he was a great player in Oakland City, but it was his choice to be there, so tough luck.
26. Vern Stephens (28) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto.
(26A Hughie Jennings)
27. George Sisler (29) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
28. Nellie Fox (30) Just can't have him ahead of Doerr & Gordon. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
29. Bucky Walters (31) A strong peak, but the wartime factor is just too strong for a marginal case like this.
30. Ralph Kiner (32) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
31. Roger Bresnahan
32. Charley Jones
33. Dave Bancroft
34. Vic Willis
35. Pie Traynor
36. Bobby Veach
37. Burleigh Grimes
38. Elston Howard
39. Spottswood Poles
40. Bill Byrd

56. Hugh Duffy. The first time I’ve ever had a top-10 returnee anywhere near this low. I have him very close to Mike Griffin – played a little longer, had a better peak, but they’re almost identical hitters and Griffin was clearly a better fielder. I just don’t see him at all.
   111. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 16, 2006 at 12:01 AM (#2021324)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   112. Jeff M Posted: May 18, 2006 at 04:11 AM (#2025436)
My 1976 ballot, for posterity. ;)

1976 Ballot

1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

2. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

3. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson.

4. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

5. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

6. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

7. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

8. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

9. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32. This is a shaky placement, and if he gets closer to election, I'm going to have to look closer.

10. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

11. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon. It might be a mistake to have him behind Wilson, Clarkson and Minoso.

12. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction, though if Doerr is a HoMer so is Gordon. It might be a mistake to have him behind Wilson, Clarkson and Minoso.

13. Ryan, Jimmy – Still better than Van Haltren, even in the Zombie League.

14. Dean, Dizzy

15. Pierce, Billy

Required Disclosure(s):

Redding, Dick – I guess I’m just confused.

Mendez, Jose –It probably won’t surprise anyone that I’ve got Mendez #63, given how much I differ from the electorate on Cool Papa and Redding.

Moore, Dobie – I’ve never been sure where to place him. I value other Negro Leaguers higher than these three.
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