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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, June 04, 2006

1978 Ballot

Top new candidates: Roberto Clemente, Hoyt Wilhelm, Bill Mazeroski, and Maury Wills.

Top-ten returnees: George Sisler, José Méndez, Cannonball Dick Redding , Minnie Minoso , Joe Sewell , Jake Beckley, Hugh Duffy, and Dobie Moore.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 04, 2006 at 11:06 PM | 125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 05, 2006 at 11:28 AM (#2051621)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Hoyt Wilhelm-RP (n/e): I think he's somewhere in between the no-brainers and borderline of the HOM, which makes him a good choice for our first relief pitcher induction (I hope :-). Not a peak monster at the position, but good enough when paired with his extremely long career. Best ML starting pitcher for 1959.

2) Roberto Clemente Walker-RF (n/e): The bad: nowhere near being the best of his generation of right fielders, not to mention all-time. The good: he was still great, nevertheless. :-) Best NL right fielder of 1966.Best ML right fielder of 1967

3) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

4) Cupid Childs-2B (2): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.

The most dominating backlogger 99.9% of the time for each election.

5) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (5): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

6) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (6): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

7) Pie Traynor-3B (7): Best white third baseman of his time (though Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

8) Alejandro Oms-CF (8): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

9) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (9): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

10) Burleigh Grimes-P (10): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

11) Mickey Welch-P (11): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

12) Bucky Walters-P (12): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

13) George Sisler-1B (13): Great player at his peak, but unquestionably a mediocre (at best) player after 1922, which didn't add much to his overall value. Best AL first baseman for 1916 and 1922. Best ML first baseman for 1917, 1919, and 1920 (very close in 1916 and 1922).</b>

14) Vic Willis-P (14): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (15): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Redding, Mendez, Sewell, and Beckley all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   2. EricC Posted: June 05, 2006 at 12:19 PM (#2051636)
1978 ballot. Voting early for a chance.

1. Wally Schang - Long consistent career with very good bat in the 1910s-1920s AL, an era when catchers did not catch as many games year in and year out as later.
2. Roberto Clemente - Obviously HoM-caliber corner outfielder. Rank among all RF in career WS similar to Schang's rank among C.
3. Hoyt Wilhelm - Not a reliever in the modern sense, as career innings pitched relative to normals of the time was higher than some HoM starting pitchers, so doesn't really help in deciding how to rank modern relievers. Tied for 3rd highest career ERA+ among pitchers with 1000+ IP.
4. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL. I believe in league-strength adjustments.
5. Jose Mendez - Reputation and statistical evidence that he had a HoM-worthy peak. I think of him as a better version of Lefty Gomez,
6. Gil Hodges - The best or among the best 1B throughout his prime in the strong 50s NL.
7. Bob Elliott - In a rating system that attempts to balance positions, Elliott's and Boyer's careers stand out among unelected 3B.
8. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers, behind Blyleven. One of the overlooked great pitchers.
9. Charlie Keller - With reasonable war credit, his monster peak helps him eclipse his twin Kiner.
10. Ralph Kiner
11. Ken Boyer
12. Dutch Leonard (Emil) In new system designed to weed out innings-eating pitchers of the 50s-60s, Leonard's balance of career length and strength still stands out. Was an effective reliever too.
13. Orestes Minoso - Not an extereme career, but a little credit for ML time missed and a fine prime put him on the ballot.
14. Ernie Lombardi - One of the greatest bats ever for a C, despite the legs.
15. Nellie Fox - Borderline 50s 2B candidate. Solid prime, but issues with AL strength.

-Mazeroski and Wills were very good, but are not HoMers.

-Van Haltren and Beckley are the best unelected 1890s OF and IF.
-Sisler was a good player, but because of his injury, his prime wasn't quite long/strong enough for me.
-Duffy had an excellent peak/prime by some measures. Note quite long/strong enough for me.
-I'd elect Mendez and Byrd before Redding, and elect Lundy before Moore.
   3. Rusty Priske Posted: June 05, 2006 at 12:57 PM (#2051653)
PHoM: Roberto Clemente & Heinie Groh

1. Roberto Clemente (new)

Easy. This is the biggest gap on the ballot.

2. George Van Haltren (5,2,2)

Oh, St. George. Why must these sinners doubt thee?

3. Jake Beckley (2,3,5)
4. Mickey Welch (4,4,6)

Constantly squezed out my the flavour of the month. (Of course, they often DESERVE to be squeezed out by the flavour of the month.)

5. Dobie Moore (3,5,4)
6. George Sisler (6,6,7)

Oh, so close.

7. Hugh Duffy (8,7,8)
8. Nellie Fox (7,9,10)
9. Tommy Leach (9,8,9)
10. Edd Roush (10,10,11)

Leach and ROush are pretty much dead even.

11. Quincy Trouppe (11,13,14)
12. Minnie Minoso (13,11,14)

Another big gap

13. Cupid Childs (14,15,x)
14. Jimmy Ryan (x,x,x)
15. Sam Rice (12,12,13)

16-20. Wilhelm, Redding, Sewell, Boyer, Monroe
21-25. White, Willis, Kiner, Smith, Streeter
26-30. Elliott, Mullane, Strong, Doyle, Gleason

About Wilhelm: he redefined relievers. He 'created' the closer. Unfortunately, I think the closer is the most overrated 'position' in baseball. I won't be comaplining when he gets in, but he doesn't get my vote.
   4. ronw Posted: June 05, 2006 at 01:30 PM (#2051664)
1978 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP just for fun.

1. Hoyt Wilhelm Easily in for me. 34 pWS/300IP.

2. Roberto ClementeAnother easy one. Only Ruth, Ott, Crawford, P. Waner ahead of him among RF eligibles. (Aaron, Robinson, Jackson, Kaline, Gwynn, Winfield will soon also pass Roberto, though). 21 bWS/700PA

3. Dick Redding Well, with recent stats, he may not be very similar to Spahn, but perhaps Roberts. I think his teens peak is higher than we realize.

4. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders. 26.1 bWS/700PA, unadjusted for league.

5. Larry Doyle I think the 1910’s NL is getting penalized more than the 1950’s AL, and Doyle is being unfairly penalized for poor fielding. 22.5 bWS/700PA, better than all 2B save Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie, Robinson (and soon Morgan).

6. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Based on MLE, 22.1 bWS/700PA. Only Wagner and Vaughn better.

7. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951. 20.3 bWS/700PA.

8. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well. 23.9 bWS/700PA (but Rosen is at 24.7)

9. Roger Bresnahan Did just enough for just long enough. 22.7 bWS/700PA, better than all catchers eligible through 1999 save . . . Gene Tenace!!! (24.1), and probably Josh Gibson (unreal 35.6 based on MLEs).

10. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

11. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before. 20.0 bWS/700PA.

12. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

13. Cupid Childs Less of a hitter than Doyle, but not by much. Only 18.6 bWS/700PA. I would have thought he would be in the 20’s. Still, his rate is comparable to Sandberg (18.8) Whitaker (18.7) and Gordon (18.5)

14. Minnie Minoso In the Slaughter mold. 21.8 bWS/700PA, exactly the same as Bob Johnson, and similar to Joe Kelley (21.7).

15. George Sisler Almost. 20.2 bWS/700PA, of course dragged down by the latter part of the career.


LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES


16. Ben Taylor

17. Alejandro Oms MLE give him 21.4 bWS/700PA, a little worse than Edd Roush (21.9).

18. Billy Pierce 22.1 pWS/300IP. Similar to Clark Griffith (22.8) and Juan Marichal (22.3) and Eddie Cicotte (22.8) and Bucky Walters (22.6) and Wilbur Cooper (22.2) and Charlie Buffinton (22.3) and Don Drysdale (21.9) and Chief Bender (21.8) among pitchers between 3000-3500 IP.

19. Jake Beckley Only 18.6 WS/700PA, but a lot of them.

20. George Scales Awaiting full reevaluation, could vault onto ballot next week.

21. Hilton Smith Awaiting full reevaluation, could vault onto ballot next week.

Missing top 10

Joe Sewell – A year or two more would make him an easy choice. He is creeping up my backlog. He and I are members of the same college fraternity. 15.8 WS/700PA

Hugh Duffy – I like Van Haltren, Roush, and Ryan a little more. Only 20.9 WS/700PA


Bill Mazeroski - A worse hitter (8.8 WS/700PA) than Bobby Lowe (10.3) cannot be in the HOM no matter how good the glove.

Maury Wills – More on the border than I would have thought. I would take Stephens over him, though. Wills’ WS/700PA (14.2) is weaker than that of our weakest SS, Bobby Wallace (14.7), in many less appearances.

Tom Haller – Another borderline Dodger. Hit very well for a catcher. In fact, his WS/700PA (18.6) is very similar to notorious masher Lombardi (18.5), albeit in nearly 2000 less appearances.
   5. Daryn Posted: June 05, 2006 at 02:00 PM (#2051681)
I’m surprised that I don’t have Maz on my ballot, but I have decided that one great skill does not a career make. I was born in 1969, but the 1960 World Series is by far my favourite.

I have instituted a Grade ranking of my candidates. As and Bs would make my version of a Smaller Hall. B minuses and C plusses are borderline. Cs and below, including the 3 on my ballot, are not worthy.

I have Sewell, Minoso and Moore at 20, 22 and 23. Duffy is at 29. Duffy and Sewell were on my ballot in the teens. The other two never have been.

1. Hoyt Wilhelm (A+) – I would say that the top 3 to 5 relievers of all time would be in the top 2 on this ballot, and Hoyt is likely the No. 1 reliever of all-time. What would his entrance music have been?

2. Roberto Clemente (A) – 3000 hits and great defense does it for me.

3. Mickey Welch (A) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

4. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought.

6. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

8. George Sisler (B) – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

9. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

10. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

11. George Van Haltren (C+) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

12. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. Joe D thinks he was one of the Hall of Fame’s 5 worst pitching selections. I disagree.

13. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

14. Jose Mendez (C) – His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin.

15. Jimmy Ryan ( C) – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 14 spots back.
   6. Ardo Posted: June 05, 2006 at 02:27 PM (#2051704)
I, too, will post early and take a break from the HoM for a week. Each player has their 75-76-77 ballot placement in parentheses. Last year, we elected Ernie Banks (1) and Jim Bunning (8).

1. Roberto Clemente (new)
2. Hoyt Wilhelm (new)

Clemente had more season-by-season value than Wilhelm (from playing every day) and places first. Both men rank ahead of Mendez, even though ol' Jose was a mighty fine pitcher.

3. Jose Mendez (1-1-2)
4. Wally Schang (7-6-5) - hugely under-rated thus far. Caught a lot of games for his era, hit well, played for winning teams.
5. Charley Jones (x-x-4) - I did a massive re-eval of eligible OFs, and Jones came out best. Note Pete Browning in my top 20.
6. Billy Pierce (6-4-6) - most Pennants Added of any eligible 20th-century pitcher.
7. Quincy Trouppe (3-3-3) - games played at 3B demote him by a hair.
8. Ken Boyer (8-5-7) - We're under-rating consecutive peaks like Boyer's.
9. Joe Sewell (15-11-9) - The best available SS. The latest research on Dobie Moore shows that Moore was no better than Sewell in the same time span.
10. Jake Beckley (x-13-13) - Amazing that 1B was below-average in terms of Runs Created for much of his career. I'm appreciating his durability more and more.
11. Dick Redding (9-8-10)
12. George Sisler (10-14-11) - Two 7-year halves: one with 154 OPS+, one with 97 OPS+ but a .320 BA! Even in today's offensive era, it's hard to fathom how a .320 BA could lead to a below-average OPS+.
13. Nellie Fox (11-9-12) - a grade better with the bat than Mazeroski.
14. Ralph Kiner (14-15-x)
15. Elston Howard (never on) - See Boyer, Ken, then look at Ellie's 1961-64.

16-20: Doyle, Minoso, Maranville, Luque, Browning.
21-25: Bridges, Oms, Rizzuto, Lombardi, Waddell.
   7. karlmagnus Posted: June 05, 2006 at 03:02 PM (#2051739)
Wilhelm and Clemente are both in, Wilhelm being a top half of the HOM player (adjust him and he beats Ford – the last better ML pitcher was Grove. Clemente above the borderline but I think just below Beckley – career not so astoundingly long (he might get dead credit, but only 25% if he did.) Mazeroski 84 OPS+, doesn’t do it. Wills very marginally better, but still off the bottom (so’s Maranville, who was better than either.)

1. Hoyt Wilhelm 2254 innings @ERA+ of 146, which is 15 points better than Koufax. Add 50% to IP and subtract 10 from ERA+ in primitive adjustment for a reliever and you get 3381/136, better than anybody since Grove. AND he was a knuckleballer. Probably top 50, certainly top 100. (Equal third in ERA+ or 18th after 10 point adjustment.) Truly an elite pitcher, very underrated by conventional wisdom.


2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.


3. Roberto Clemente 3000 hits at 130 OPS+, better than Beckley. However Beckley had relatively a considerably longer career, and played a marginally more difficult position. TB+BB/PA .500, TB+BB/Outs .743. Didn’t walk much.


4. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

5. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

6. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5-4-4-4-5-6-4-4-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

7. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

8. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.
   8. karlmagnus Posted: June 05, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#2051740)
11. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

12. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

13. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

14. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14-12-12-13) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, although lots of UER.

15. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

20. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

21. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

22. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

23. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
24. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
25. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
26. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
27. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
28. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
29. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
30. Billy Pierce.
31. Sal Maglie.
32. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
33. (N/A) Heinie Manush
34. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
35. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
36. Bob Elliott
37. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
38. (N/A) Dick Lundy
39. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
40. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
41. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
42. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
43. Kiki Cuyler
44. Deacon McGuire
45. Jack Quinn
46. Tony Mullane
47. Pye Traynor
48. Jim McCormick
49. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
50. Joe Judge
51. Edd Roush
52. Spotswood Poles.
53. Larry Doyle
54. Curt Simmons
55. Roger Bresnahan.
56. Wayte Hoyt.
57. Harry Hooper.
58. Gil Hodges
59. Jules Thomas.
60. Wilbur Cooper
61. Bruce Petway.
62. Jack Clements
63. Bill Monroe
64. Jose Mendez
65. Herb Pennock
66. Chief Bender
67. Ed Konetchy
68. Jesse Tannehill
69. Bobby Veach
70. Lave Cross
71. Tommy Leach.
72. Tom York
   9. Thane of Bagarth Posted: June 05, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2051789)
1978 Ballot
I have tweaked my pitcher rankings slightly for all pitchers. I also adjusted them so that relievers’ Win Share totals reflect something more similar to WARP’s relative valuation, which does sneak Wilhelm onto my ballot, albeit toward the lower end. I don’t have a problem with him cruising through in his first election, but I don’t see him as quite the no-brainer that others seem to.

1) Roberto Clemente
It would have been nice if they named the new ballpark in Pittsburgh after him, but I guess a bridge is pretty good, too.

2) Pete Browning
Pete ended up a lot closer to Clemente than I would have thought before running Roberto’s numbers. He is really the only player hanging around that I see as well above the HoM’s established in-out line.

3) Dick Redding
4) Jose Mendez
Revised pitcher rankings put my top two NeL pitchers just ahead of Taylor.

5) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (Career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

6) Ken Boyer
53.3 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is better than all other eligible hitters, including Clemente.

7) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but thanks to 300 extra IP and an OPS+ advantage of 13 points Bucky wins out.

8) Joe Sewell
His top 5 WARP come in a close second to Boyer (52.4), but his 5-yr. consecutive Win Shares are a little below Boyer (and Gordon). Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.

9) Charley Jones
Seems like poor man’s Browning, or perhaps an old-timer’s Ralph Kiner. Blackball year credit gets him on the ballot.

10) Dizzy Trout
Back on the ballot this year, just ahead of Wilhelm and Pierce among pitchers.

11) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner for best top 3 seasons in Win Shares. I guess it’s just the extra war credit I’m giving Keller that gets him a spot above Kiner.

12) Hoyt Wilhelm
I don’t really have anything to add to what’s already been discussed.

13) Billy Pierce
Finally making his debut on my ballot. He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.

14) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

15) Dobie Moore
Perhaps the Black Hughie Jennings, but I think he’s got more career value so he makes my ballot (Jennings would be ranked in the 40s).

The Rest of the Top 50.
16) Minnie Minoso—Barely slides off the ballot this year.

17) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his Relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.

18) Jake Beckley—Oh so close to the ballot due to career value, still, 37.6 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
19) Tommy Leach
20) Gavy Cravath
21) Jimmy Ryan
22) Bob Johnson
23) Burleigh Grimes
24) George Van Haltren
25) Harry Hooper
26) Rabbit Maranville
27) Fred Dunlap
28) Sam Rice
29) Bob Elliott
30) Fielder Jones
31) Phil Rizzuto
32) Nellie Fox
33) Alejandro Oms
34) Cy Seymour
35) Vern Stephens
36) Quincy Trouppe
37) Dick Bartell
38) Hugh Duffy—In a dead-heat with Sisler. Win Shares likes Duffy more, WARP3 likes Sisler, I’m kinda splitting the difference.
39) George Sisler—Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
40) Dom DiMaggio
41) Spotswood Poles
42) Gil Hodges
43) George Burns
44) Carl Mays
45) Bobo Newsom
46) Johnny Pesky
47) Bobby Veach
48) Dave Bancroft
49) Edd Roush
50) Urban Shocker

Other Returning Top 10 and New Notables
51) Cupid Childs—Childs suffers a fate similar to Kiner: He’s got decent numbers for peak, but the career value is relatively low. Kiner’s peak is better, though, that’s why he’s up at #17 and Cupid is down here.

Wills & Mazeroski—Two unique players that don’t really have a shot at ever making my ballot. Both are down around #110, Wills being the higher of the two.
   10. Thane of Bagarth Posted: June 05, 2006 at 04:34 PM (#2051816)
WARNING: EGREGIOUS ERROR ALERT

So, after posting this:

2) Pete Browning
Pete ended up a lot closer to Clemente than I would have thought before running Roberto’s numbers. He is really the only player hanging around that I see as well above the HoM’s established in-out line.


I thought, "Hmm...why is he so surprisingly close to Clemente?" Well, I double checked the data I had entered for Browning, and in using real-life plate appearances and BPro’s translated stats to adjust his stats for season length I had mistakenly been using 4,315 as his total real-life PAs instead of 5,315. This means I artificially inflated some of his stats by almost 25%. Using the right data he falls short of my top 50.

I apologize for the bone-head mistake, and here’s a re-posting of my new top 15:

1) Roberto Clemente
2) Jose Mendez
3) Dick Redding
4) Ben Taylor
5) Ken Boyer
6) Bucky Walters
7) Joe Sewell
8) Charley Jones
9) Dizzy Trout
10) Charlie Keller
11) Hoyt Wilhelm
12) Billy Pierce
13) Bill Monroe
14) Dobie Moore
15) Minnie Minoso
   11. sunnyday2 Posted: June 05, 2006 at 04:50 PM (#2051840)
I woulda thought Pete would be better after getting those extra 1,000 PAs.
   12. yest Posted: June 05, 2006 at 05:06 PM (#2051876)
1978 ballot
Roberto Clemente and Hoyt Wilhelm make my PHOM

1. Roberto Clemente so overrated he’s now underrated (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
3. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts moved up when I relized I like him better then Banks and Banks beat Traynor (made my personal HoM in 1939)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
13. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
14. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
15. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
16. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Hoyt Wilhelm best reliever ever (obviously I’m not a big fan of relievers not a big fan ) (makes my personal HoM this year)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
31. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe Leauge stats seem to show he lacked
   13. Daryn Posted: June 05, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2051909)
I woulda thought Pete would be better after getting those extra 1,000 PAs.

Not if he went O-fer in them.
   14. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 05, 2006 at 06:28 PM (#2051982)
Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year


Let's look at Mazeroski's best defensive season, 1966. Pittsburgh allowed 641 runs in 1966, with a pitching staff that included some guys who had pretty good years for other teams - Pete Mikkelsen, Don Cardwell, Billy O'Dell, Woddie Fryman - as well as some long-term Pirates like Bob Veale and Al McBean who didn't pitch a lot for other teams, and guys like Vernon Law and Steve Blass who didn't pitch for *any* other teams. That wasn't a bad pitching staff to have at that time. They allowed 641 runs and finished fourth in the NL in ERA.

You are claiming that "on average" Maz saved 90 runs a year. Add 90 runs to that season, and the Pirates suddenly have the third-worst staff in the NL, ahead of only the woeful Mets and Cubs. And 1966 (as I noted before) was Mazeroski's *best* defensive season - a season in which he very likely saved more runs than he did in any other year of his career.

I'm as much an admirer of Mazeroski's defense as anyone. But no matter how much I massage the data, I can never get to a conclusion that suggests that any defender saves 90 runs a season. *At best* (1966), Mazeroski was probably somewhere around 40-50 runs.

I don't want to belabor the point in the ballot thread, though. If you want to discuss this further, I'll post this comment in Mazeroski's thread as well and it can be discussed there.

-- MWE
   15. DL from MN Posted: June 05, 2006 at 06:41 PM (#2052001)
1978 Ballot

1) Roberto Clemente - very good defender in addition to the 3000 hits
2) Hoyt Wilhelm - spectacular pitcher, best reliever ever (watch Mariano closely) but relievers aren't able to pile up the value of everyday position players or starting pitchers due to opportunity. I can't fathom how Wilhelm could provide more value in 2254 innings than Clemente did in 2433 games. I do agree that Hoyt ranks higher than Koufax.
3) Bob Johnson - very close in value to Wilhelm, very well rounded player.
4) Billy Pierce - as long as we're giving bonus value to leveraged innings Pierce finished 84 games with 32 saves. He also had 193 complete games.
5) Ralph Kiner - lots of power and walks, one more season or better defense would have helped put him over the top. Comparable to Manny Ramirez.
6) Ken Boyer - Excellent defender at 3B, very good hitter
7) Charlie Keller - I'm probably not giving as much war and minor league credit as those who have Keller above Kiner
8) Tommy Bridges - Deserves a little war credit
9) Dutch Leonard - Deserves a little war discount
10) Quincy Trouppe - Mexican league star
11) Bob Elliott - Another war era player, another 3B, we're short on both
12) Virgil Trucks - Deserves 2 extra seasons due to WW II.
13) Minnie Minoso - took away one season of minor league credit when I figured out I gave him favoritism wrt other candidates. Very good defender.
14) Joe Sewell - Good hitter, good defender
15) Jake Beckley - always ends up around the bottom of my ballot, consistenly good for a long time
16-20) Chuck Klein, Dick Bartell, Gavy Cravath, Dobie Moore, Rube Waddell
21-24) Jose Mendez, Tommy Leach, Edd Roush, Urban Shocker

George Sisler ranks 27th, he got hurt a year or two too early.
Dick Redding is 42nd, his career beyond age 32 is probably not major league caliber and his peak was lower than Mendez.
Hugh Duffy - 63rd, not that great of a fielder or a hitter. There have been plenty of CF better than Duffy. There are unelected contemporaries better than Duffy.
Bill Mazeroski - provided about the same value as Rizzuto, neither is close to the ballot
Maury Wills - not in the top 100 eligibles
   16. DanG Posted: June 05, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2052019)
Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year

Mike, he must mean 90 runs saved over having nobody playing the position. That might compute.
   17. Paul Wendt Posted: June 05, 2006 at 07:45 PM (#2052105)
I had mistakenly been using 4,315 as his total real-life PAs instead of 5,315. This means I artificially inflated some of his stats by almost 25%. Using the right data he falls short of my top 50.

some stats way more than 25%. I'm sure you underrated the Browning who made 1000 fewer outs.

--
Hoyt Wilhelm (A+) – I would say that the top 3 to 5 relievers of all time would be in the top 2 on this ballot, and Hoyt is likely the No. 1 reliever of all-time. What would his entrance music have been?

something by Herbie Mann on the flute. When i fix the turntable, I'll listen again and tell you which one.

--
4) Billy Pierce - as long as we're giving bonus value to leveraged innings Pierce finished 84 games with 32 saves. He also had 193 complete games.

Retrosheet now barely covers some of the epoch when Games Finished were important, we think, for regular starting pitchers. Of course, a particular career could be studied from box scores.

Does anyone have a leverage guestimate for relief innings by top starters in those days?

How did I miss Billy Pierce, covering historical relief pitchers several months ago?
Pierce isn't in the Palmer "Relief Register" (TB3), that's how.

Billy Pierce in The Baseball Encyclopedia 1 (1969)
total:: 585g 3306i . . . 3.27 ERA, 211-169
relief: 153g _228i . . . 2.64 ERA, _14-10 32s
start:: 432g . . . 193cg
   18. favre Posted: June 05, 2006 at 08:10 PM (#2052158)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Roberto Clemente
2. Charley Jones
3. Rube Waddell

Clemente had ten seasons with an OPS+ of 135 or higher, which makes him an easy #1 pick in my system. I was four years old in 1972; I really, really wish I could have seen him play.

From 1876-1880 Charley Jones posted OPS+ seasons of 183, 169, 158, 156, and 154. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2. I had basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part. Take a look at him again if it’s been a while.

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Didn’t pitch a lot of innings compared to his contemporaries but, as dolflucky (used to) say, the man was dominant.

4. George Sisler
5. Hoyt Wilhelm
6. Jake Beckley

At the moment, the Hall has no one at 1B from 1897 until 1923, when Jud Wilson played a couple of seasons at first. From 1917-1922 Sisler’s averaged an OPS+ of 161 with forty stolen bases per season, which keeps him ahead of Beckley.

I have Beckley and Wilhelm linked together in my head. Both players had basically one big year, neither of which could seriously be considered MVP years. Beckley never posted HUGE numbers in any given season; Wilhlem was extremely effective when he pitched, but threw a limited number of innings on a per season basis. Their merit comes in their long primes: Beckley has thirteen seasons with an OPS+ 122 or higher; Wilhelm has thirteen seasons of 140 ERA+ or higher, which is my cutoff for a prime year for a reliever. Both are worthy HoMr’s, though Wilhelm is going to have a slightly shorter wait for induction.

7. Dobie Moore
8. Bob Elliott
9. Ken Boyer

I’ve dropped Moore some as Chris’ new numbers have sunk in, but I still think he’s the best shortstop on the ballot, and has been for a while (last year notwithstanding). He is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see how you could put Sewell ahead.

Elliott and Boyer are fairly similar players. Elliott was a better hitter and had a little longer prime, which gives him the edge over Boyer’s defense. We currently have only four infielders from the 1950s (Robinson, Resse, Mathews, and Banks), so Boyer would help fill a gap there as well.

10. Billy Pierce
11. Ralph Kiner
12. Orestes Minoso

We are very short on pitchers from 1941-55. Pierce is the best pitcher left from the 1950s, with five seasons posting an ERA+ over 130: 201, 148, 141, 136, 133, and a sixth season at 124. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams with excellent defenses.

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two. By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is only one year shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher, with OPS+ seasons of 184, 184, and 173.

13. Vic Willis
14. Nellie Fox
15. Roger Bresnahan

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

I’ve already mentioned that we only have three infielders from the 1950s. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

We also have no one at catcher from 1891-1910. Bresnahan would not only help fill that gap, but also (a possible) one at CF from 1901-5, depending on what position you assign Pete Hill.

16-20: Bucky Walters, Gavvy Cravath, Jose Mendez, Wally Schang, Cupid Childs,

Jose Mendez: It kills me to drop him from the ballot, where’s he had settled for many years. But other pitchers looked better in my re-evaluation, and I have to respect that.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more. The fact that the HoF committee did not pick him doesn’t encourage me to move him up.

Hugh Duffy: Only one big year, and I question his WS A+ fielding grade. There is also no dearth of centerfielders in the Hall of Merit.

Joe Sewell: See Moore comment. Sewell does not stack up well with other SS in the HoM.
   19. DanG Posted: June 05, 2006 at 08:12 PM (#2052162)
My #1 was elected. Old exhibits reprised for GVH and Bresnahan. Clemente and Wilhelm figure to dominate the balloting in 1978. Willie Mays is unanimous in 1979, while Luis Aparicio and Frank Howard take on the backlog. A bumper crop comes on in 1980; we elect three from Kaline, Santo, Marichal, Cash and Cepeda.

1) Roberto Clemente – Generally considered to be a top-100 player, and deserves that status, as far as I can see.

2) Hoyt Wilhelm – Many rank him top 100. He’s not, but he is a solid mid level hall of famer, putting him above anyone in the backlog.

3) George Van Haltren (2,1,1) – In three years, 1972 to 1975, he went from the #1 unelected player to #10. He slipped two more spots in 1977. Why? Now in his 70th year eligible. His day may come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

4) George Sisler (3,2,3) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This may not be the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

5) Tommy Leach (4,3,2) – Holding steady, finished mid-20’s for the sixth straight year. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

6) Edd Roush (5,4,4) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he climbed another notch last year, with his first back-to-back 200-point showings since 1946-47 when he was still a Shiny New Toy. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

7) Minnie Minoso (6,5,5) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

8) Roger Bresnahan (7,6,7) – Only about eight voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .380, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas
8—.386 N. Lajoie
9—.382 M. Huggins

9) Jimmy Ryan (8,7,8) – As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 16 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

10) Jake Beckley (9,8,9) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

11) Wally Schang (10,9,10) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

12) Burleigh Grimes (11,11,12) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3750+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey

9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller
11—3762 W. Hoyt
12—3760 J. Bunning
13—3759 B. Newsom

13) Charlie Keller (13,14,15) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too.

14) Cupid Childs (14,15,--) – I’ve voted for him five times previously: 1914-15, 1942 and 1976-77. The backlog added since 1940 has finally played itself out. Players with OBP over .400, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1--.455 B. Hamilton
2--.433 T. Cobb
3--.431 T. Speaker
4--.423 D. Brouthers
5--.421 E. Collins
6--.416 C. Childs
7--.415 J. Burkett
8--.413 R. Thomas
9--.411 E. Delahanty
10--.402 J. Kelley

15) Ralph Kiner (15,--,--) – Hangs on to ballot spot. I’ve never seen him on any “questionable hall of famers” survey. NBJHBA rates him ~#171. Like Keller, a long, high prime. Could move up.

Moore was the odd man out from last election’s tail-enders. Other top tenners off ballot: Redding, Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters. In fact, I have a suspicion that some of their lofty ranking is due to the fact that, because most of their analysis was the work of others, voters are unable to justify a downgrading.

Duffy was a regular on my ballot until 30 years ago and may return someday. I’ve never voted for Sewell, the “position-era domination” argument doesn’t do much for me.
   20. OCF Posted: June 05, 2006 at 09:05 PM (#2052232)
1978 ballot.

1. Roberto Clemente Walker (new) Caught a Willie Mays fly and crashed into a Forbes Field wall in the first major league game I ever saw. Late bloomer; meets the general definitions of "typical HoM corner outfielder." A better peak than Wheat, a longer career than Flick, more defensive value than Goslin, a better hitter than Slaughter. Nowhere close to Crawford, and certainly nowhere close to Ott.
2. Billy Pierce (4, 5, 1, 1, 2) Underappreciated by both the HoF and (so far) us.
3. Hoyt Wilhelm (new) I guess I'm OK with him being in the HoM, but I think I'm going to be very stingy with relief pitchers. Hoffman, Wetteland, Lee Smith, John Franco, Quisenberry, Fingers, Sutter - I don't really see any of them for the HoM. Above I've seen people trumpeting that his ERA+ is better than Koufax. I'd be careful with that talk - Wilhelm does have unearned runs issues, and part of that is about passed balls, which have to be included as part of his abilities. My own RA+ equivalent records have him approximately level with Koufax, only spread over 20 years - and that's the other issue. Wilhelm simply does not have high peak value.
4. Ralph Kiner (3, 4, 3, 2, 4) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
5. Larry Doyle (5, 6, 4, 3, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
6. José Méndez (2, 3, 2, 4, 6) Could easily be as good as Koufax.
7. Quincy Trouppe (6, 7, 5, 5, 7) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
8. George Van Haltren (7, 8, 6, 6, 8) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
9. Bucky Walters (8, 9, 8, 7, 9) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
10. Joe Sewell (10, 11, 10, 8, 10) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
11. Dick Redding (12, 13, 12, 9, 11) A career-value pitching candidate.
12. Orestes Miñoso (9, 10, 9, 10, 12) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value.
13. Jake Beckley (13, 14, 13, 11, 13) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
14. Bob Elliott (14, 15, 14, 12, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
15. Tommy Bridges (23, 23, 22, 13, 15) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
16. Ken Boyer (--, 15, 14, 16) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove. The issue I haven't come to grips with yet, and I don't think the electorate has come to grips with: the NL of the 50's-60's was supposed to be a very high quality league, better than the AL at the same time. Part of the reason for that is some not-yet-eligible monster candidates like Mays, Aaron, and Robinson. But if it really was the better league, that should boost some marginal candidates into electability - who were they?
17. Hugh Duffy (15, 16, 16, 15, 17) Nothing new to say after all these years.
18. Mickey Vernon (16, 17, 17, 16, 18) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
19. Nellie Fox (19, 19, 19, 18, 19) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
20. Phil Rizzuto (20, 20, 20, 19, 20) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
21. Cupid Childs (21, 21, 20, 20, 21) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
22. Edd Roush (24, 24, 24, 22, 22) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
23. George Sisler (25, 25, 25, 23, 23) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
24. Vern Stephens (26, 26, 26, 24, 24)
25. Dobie Moore (27, 27, 27, 25, 25) Short career, high peak.
26. Bob Johnson (28, 28, 28, 26, 26)
27. Rocky Colavito (-, 29, 29, 27, 27) I like Colavito's actual major league career a hair better than Johnson's, including a better peak. Johnson stays ahead of Colavito in recognition of his minor league value.
28. Frank Chance (30, 30, 30, 28, 28)
29. Rube Waddell (30, --, 29, 29)
30. Jimmy Ryan (---, 30, 30)

Bill Mazeroski and Maury Wills. I haven't yet given either of them my full offensive workup and really should, but I don't see that much chance of either making my top 15 (one or the other might crack my top 30). Mazeroski did one thing fabulously well, and that was turn the DP. His offense looks not too bad, somewhat useful for a middle infielder - but what's striking is that although he came up very, very young, his offensive skills never really developed. He was as good a hitter at 20-21 as he ever would be. Wills was a late bloomer who managed to put together a 1900+ game career anyway. Yes, he did score 130 runs in 1962 and I've always liked runs scored - but that shouldn't have made him the MVP. Now give me a player that's Mazeroski ages 19-27 and Wills ages 28-39 and we might have something. By the way, there's this kid in Kansas City named Frank White - already 5 years in the majors as a good-field, no-hit 2B, and he'll just be 27 next season. You wouldn't expect him to develop power, but if he ever did, maybe he'd be as good as Mazeroski.
   21. jimd Posted: June 05, 2006 at 10:28 PM (#2052299)
something by Herbie Mann on the flute. When i fix the turntable, I'll listen again and tell you which one.

Let me preface this by saying that I know nothing about Wilhelm's taste in music. It's quite possible that Hoyt could have encountered young Herbie Mann during his days with the Giants, so you might have something there, or you may know about his tastes. I was thinking, based on his age and birthplace, more along the lines of Flatt and Scruggs.
   22. OCF Posted: June 05, 2006 at 10:36 PM (#2052305)
I was thinking, based on his age and birthplace, more along the lines of Flatt and Scruggs.

Yes, but his pitches didn't move as fast as that music.
   23. EricC Posted: June 05, 2006 at 10:40 PM (#2052306)
But if it [50s-60s NL] really was the better league, that should boost some marginal candidates into electability - who were they?

Ashburn and Cepeda, most likely.
Ken Boyer, possibly.
Gil Hodges, probably not.
   24. Thane of Bagarth Posted: June 05, 2006 at 10:57 PM (#2052324)
I woulda thought Pete would be better after getting those extra 1,000 PAs.

Not if he went O-fer in them.


It's not so much that he wasn't getting credit for those plate appearances, I just use Translated PAs/Real life PAs to adjust my career Win Shares totals. Increasing the denominator by 1,000 does a lot of deflating.
   25. dan b Posted: June 06, 2006 at 02:39 AM (#2052901)
1. Hoyt Wilhelm Easily in for me. 34 pWS/300IP

pWS/300IP for some other RP:

Quisenberry – 45
Smith – 46
Sutter – 48
Hoffman – 55
Rivera – 62

As a voter who wants to see some peak, I’m not ready to share the opinion expressed by some voters that Wilhelm (who lead his league in saves exactly zero times) was the best RP ever.
   26. Chris Cobb Posted: June 06, 2006 at 03:08 AM (#2052980)
1. Hoyt Wilhelm Easily in for me. 34 pWS/300IP

pWS/300IP for some other RP:

Quisenberry – 45
Smith – 46
Sutter – 48
Hoffman – 55
Rivera – 62

As a voter who wants to see some peak, I’m not ready to share the opinion expressed by some voters that Wilhelm (who lead his league in saves exactly zero times) was the best RP ever.


This comparison of relievers' win share rates is not meaningful. Win shares' valuation of relievers is built around saves as a measure of leverage, so a relievers' win-share rate will be tied closely to the ratio between his saves and his innings pitched. Since post-1990 closers like Hoffman and Rivera typically pitch one inning in save situations, obviously their rate of win shares will be astronomical, where relievers who frequently throw 2-inning saves (see Quiz, Sutter) will have a lower rate, and relievers whose usage isn't based around saves (see Wilhelm) will have even lower rates, even though the innings they are pitching are nearly as highly or more highly leveraged than the innings that earn the post-1990 closers their huge pile of saves. That's not to say that the rates of these later relievers aren't excellent: they are, and they compensate for the 75-ip seasons these guys regularly throw. But it's about as meaningful to argue that Hoyt Wilhelm has a weak peak because his rates don't match those of later relievers as it is to make the same argument about Sandy Koufax.
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: June 06, 2006 at 12:49 PM (#2053240)
Right, in some cases Wilhelm was pitching the 8th and 9th, for instance, of a 3-2 game. Rivera only pitches the 9th.
Yet I believe Rivera would be credited with a higher "peak" by that definition, since he only pitched the 9th. That would be perverse.

Basically, Wilhelm, Gossage, et al, did the things that one-IP closers do PLUS the hard work of 'setup' innings, pitching in the middle of innings, etc.
With all that, any closer who doesn't have very high 'rate' stats probably isn't even a part of the HOM discussion.
   28. rawagman Posted: June 06, 2006 at 01:25 PM (#2053264)
Due to movign to a new apartment, I have not had as much of a chance to fine tune things as I would have liked. Roberto and Hoyt both make my PHoM. That relief pitcher thread really went nuts this past weekend - unfortunately the majority of it did not add much.
The other big news for my ballot is that Jake Beckley has dropped down and off. I have decided that I was giving him too much credit for his defense and that his hitting was not impressive enough. I prefer Minnie Minoso at this point for a largely peakless, mainly primish career type on my ballot.

1)Roberto Clemente - Once he got his career going, nothing could stop him. Well, almost nothing. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
3)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher (PHOM)
4)Hoyt Wilhelm - An argument could be made that he was the greatest relief pitcher of all time. He was definitely one of a kind. Still, as a peak/career/prime man (as opposed to prime/career/peak), I can "only" give Wilhelm 4th place on my ballot. It still puts him in my PHoM, and I don't feel is disrespectful to him and what he brought to his teams and to the game of baseball. (PHOM)
5)Gavvy Cravath - Very possibly the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates. Likely the best hitter in that group, too. (PHOM)
6)Joe Sewell (PHOM)
7)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes (PHOM)
8)George Sisler - He actually dropped a bit on my ballot when reconsidering his down years. Peak keeps him up here. Highly comparable with Banks. Main difference is that Banks did his good work while at SS and Sisler at 1B. I've heard mixed reports about the defense of both of them, being either a little better than average to very good+. I can take each with a grain of salt and be happy with these placements.
((8a)Cool Papa Bell))
9)Jose Mendez
((9a)Willard Brown - I had been underestimating him severely. His reputation enhances his already wonderful numbers.))
10)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime and glove than Beckley. This ranking may be an understatement.
11)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder.
12)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak!
13)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
14)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher
((14a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
15) Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.

16)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
((16a)Don Drysdale - Not yet, DD))
17)Nellie Fox - Low OPS+, but he is an exception to that measurement. SLG is negligible for him, he did quite well with the rest
18)Ken Boyer - so close. Still my highest ranking 3B. At least for now.
19)Wally Berger - super-underrated
20)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
21)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. NOt sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
22)Ernie Lombardi - deense was below average, but not quite horrible
23)Roger Bresnahan
24)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
25)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
26)Chuck Klein
((26a)Joe Gordon - neither here nor there. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
27)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges
28)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
29)Pete Browning
30)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - I'd be happier if I knew what he was doing for those two years
31)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
32)Cupid Childs
33)Phil Rizzuto
34)Charlie Keller - 2nd all time in extra credit
((34a)Jim Bunning - Not convinced. He had merits, but not enough for balloting.))
35)John McGraw
36)Jimmy Ryan
37)Alejandro Oms
38)Luke Easter
39)Johnny Evers
40)Pete Reiser
41)George Kell
42)Bobby Veach
43)Bob Elliott
44)Bucky Walters
45)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
46)Fred Dunlap
47)Jim Bottomley
48)Bob Johnson
49)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
50)Dobie Moore
51)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for prue "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
52)Tony Lazerri
53)Dolf Camilli
54)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
55)Johnny Pesky
56)Hippo Vaughn
57)Tip O'Neill
58)Rocky Colavito
59)Denny Lyons
60)Cecil Travis - holds the all-time record for most war credit. 4 years is a lot of credit.
61)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
62)Lon Warneke
63)Don Newcombe
64)Jack Clements
65)Cy Williams
66)Roger Maris
67)Pie Traynor
68)Frank Chance
69)Kiki Cuyler
70)Red Schoendienst
71)John Clapp
72)Larry Doyle
73)Bill Joyce
74)Benny Kauff
75)Bill Nicholson
   29. sunnyday2 Posted: June 06, 2006 at 01:25 PM (#2053266)
1978

Last year’s #1 and #16 got elected, though #16 remains in the pool for PHoM. He will have to wait, as Wilhelm and Clemente go PHoM in 1978, just as I imagine they will both go HoM.

1. Hoyt Wilhelm (new, PHoM 1978)—this is the Hall of Merit, not the Hall of Value. The #4 pitcher of all-time on ERA+ with about as many innings as Koufax cannot fail to be a PHoMer, nor probably a HoMer as well.

2. Dobie Moore (2 last year-1-1, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

3. Roberto Clemente (new, PHoM 1978)—a little bit overrated; four seasons as a young man that would fit into Sisler’s decline, but only four versus Sisler’s seven

4. Ralph Kiner (3-2-2, PHoM 1964)—there’s not just those 7 HR titles, but all those BB, too

5. Rube Waddell (4-3-3, PHoM 1932)—second highest ERA+ available, and it turns out after all these years that his UER were not outside the norm

6. George Sisler (5-4-4, PHoM 1938)—when people say his peak or prime wasn’t long enough, the truth is that nobody in the backlog peaks for much longer

7. Larry Doyle (6-5-5, PHoM 1975)—15 years of 15+ WS, I don’t see another eligible “glove” who did that, plus same OPS+ as Edd Roush and 5 points more than Hugh Duffy

8. Charley Jones (7-7-7, PHoM 1921)—Charley made my PHoM without 2 MLE blacklist years; now, he moves up with them added in

9. Addie Joss (8-6-6, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available

10. Pete Browning (9-8-8, PHoM 1961)—essentially equivalent to Charley Jones if you give Jones the two blacklist years, clearly better if you don’t

11. Edd Roush (10-11-11, PHoM 1976)—really belongs ahead of Averill and Duffy, on reconsideration

12. Vic Willis (11-12-12, PHoM 1977)—how did I miss this guy? Oh, yeah, he came eligible the same year as Waddell and didn’t quite measure up. Great peak (though not consecutive) and a huge workhorse

PS. Pitchers whose careers overlap Willis’ career: Young, Walsh, Matty, Plank, Brown, McGinnity, Foster, Waddell, Mendez, Joss, Griffith (11 HoM or PHoM)

Pitchers whose careers overlap Bunning’s: Marichal, Gibson, Drysdale, Koufax, Spahn, Roberts, Wynn, Lemon, Ford, Wilhelm, G. Perry, Palmer, Carlton, Niekro, Palmer (15 likely HoM, not counting Kaat, John, Tiant, Pierce, Sutton)

(12a. Earl Averill [11a-12a-12a-17])

13. Jose Mendez (12-13-13, PHoM 1957)—this is with essentially no credit at all for his hitting and his SS years

14. Minnie Minoso (13-14-14)—I give 2 NeL seasons though at well below peak level

(14a. Stan Hack [13a-14a-14a])

(14b. Don Drysdale [13b-15a-15])

15. Bobby Estalella (new)—if his skin was either lighter or darker, he would have a more conventional career (MLs or NeLs) and would be a PHoMer by now, as it is his career is very hard to get a handle on, but the ability was there

Drops out

16. Alejandro Oms (14-15-16-37)—big winner in recent re-eval.
17. Nellie Fox (15-18-19)

Required

Jake Beckley is about #75, right there head to head with Ben Taylor and George Van Haltren.

Close but no cigar

(17a. Bobby Doerr [15a-15a-17])
(17b. Jim Bunning (16-new)—somewhere below Drysdale)
18. Hugh Duffy (17-16-17)
19. Phil Rizzuto (18-17-18)—one of the big winners but still not on ballot
20. Charlie Keller (19-19-20)

21. Joe Sewell (20-20-21)
(21a. Richie Ashburn [20a-20a-21a])
22. Jim McCormick (21-21-22)
23. Hack Wilson (22-22-23)
24. Elston Howard (23-23-24)—new #1 catcher until Freehan comes along, much better than I had thought
25. Dick Redding (24-24-25, PHoM 1971)
26. Tommy Bond (25-25-26, PHoM 1929)
27. Wally Berger (26-26-27)
28. Mickey Welch (27-27-28)
29. Ken Boyer (28-28-29)—new #1 3B, not overwhelming however
30. Dizzy Dean (29-29-30)

They also ran

31. Dick Lundy (30-30-31)
32. Chuck Klein (31-31-32)
33. Al Rosen (32-32-33)
34. Frank Chance (33-33-34)
35. Hilton Smith (34-34-35)—should probably move up based on new NeL numbers, but it will have to be next year
36. Pie Traynor (35-35-36)
37. Tony Mullane (36-36-37)
38. Quincy Trouppe (37-37-38)—no longer the best catcher around
39. Ed Williamson (38-38-39, PHoM 1924)
(39a. Early Wynn [38a-38a-39a)
40. Gavvy Cravath (39-39-40)

41. Vern Stephens (40-40-41)
42. Mike Tiernan (41-41-42)
43. Cupid Childs (42-42-43, PHoM 1925)
44. Bill Monroe (43-43-44)
45. Bob Johnson (44-44-45)
46. Bob Elliott (45-45-46)—all the way down to about here, I still wish I could get all these guys on my ballot. Maybe Bresnahan, too, but after that, no
47. Roger Bresnahan (46-46-47)
48. Bucky Walters (47-47-48)
(48a. Biz Mackey [47a-47a-49])
(48b. Red Faber [47b-47b-49a])
(48c. Wes Ferrell [47c-47c-49b])
(48d. Willie Keeler [47d-47d-49c])
49. Lefty Gomez (48-48-50)
50. Dave Bancroft (49-49-51)
(50a. Jimmy Sheckard [49a-49a-51a])
   30. Daryn Posted: June 06, 2006 at 01:52 PM (#2053277)
60)Cecil Travis - holds the all-time record for most war credit. 4 years is a lot of credit.

Ted Williams says hi.
   31. ronw Posted: June 06, 2006 at 06:05 PM (#2053647)
I said

1. Hoyt Wilhelm Easily in for me. 34 pWS/300IP

dan b said

pWS/300IP for some other RP:

Quisenberry – 45
Smith – 46
Sutter – 48
Hoffman – 55
Rivera – 62


To start, I was posting rates for fun. I generally don't compare players (especially relievers) across eras using rates.

Now, how does Wilhelm stack up against contemporary and near-contemporary (40s-60s) relievers and reliever/starters using pWS/300IP

Hoyt Wilhelm - 34.0
Ron Perranoski - 32.6
Don McMahon - 30.7
Elroy Face - 30.6
Ellis Kinder - 29.4
Ted Abernathy - 27.9
Stu Miller - 27.0
Lindy McDaniel - 26.0
Dick Hall - 25.5
Al Worthington - 25.3
Al Brazle - 25.1
Bobby Shantz - 24.3
Don Mossi - 22.7
Turk Farrell - 21.7
Gerry Staley - 21.1
Johnny Sain - 19.9
Murry Dickson - 19.5

And immediately after him (late 60s, 70s, not much in the heady 80s)

Hoyt Wilhelm - 34.0
Sparky Lyle - 34.7
John Hiller - 34.7
Rollie Fingers - 33.0
Mike Marshall - 31.4
Tug McGraw - 31.2
Jim Brewer - 30.4
Clay Carroll - 27.7

So, he handly beats his contemporaries, and holds his own against the generation following him. It is not until the 1980s that he gets outrated.

I think he might be the best reliever of all time.
   32. ronw Posted: June 06, 2006 at 06:12 PM (#2053678)
Relievers with greater then 100 career pWS, and their pWS/300IP that beat Wilhelm's 34.0. (None come close to Wilhelm's career 255.3 pWS or 2253 IP, the next highest is Gossage at 222.4, 1809.33 IP)

Rivera - 60.4 (I have through 2005 only)
Wagner - 58.9
Percival - 54.4
Henke - 52.4
Hoffman - 50.9
Benitez - 50.6
Nen - 50.3
Wetteland - 49.5
Sutter - 48.2
Montgomery - 46.3
Smith, L - 46.1
Worrell - 45.4
Quisenberry - 45.0
Foulke - 44.9
Franco - 44.0
Urbina - 43.1
Hernandez, R - 42.5
Myers - 41.3
Reardon - 41.1
Beck - 40.4
Smith, D - 39.1
Jones, D - 38.4
Gossage - 36.9
Hiller - 34.7
Lyle - 34.7
Aguilera - 34.4

I'm pretty sure Wilhelm or Rivera are the best all time.
   33. ronw Posted: June 06, 2006 at 06:16 PM (#2053690)
IP for the previous list over 1000 (Remember, Wilhelm had 2253 IP)

Gossage - 1809.3
Lyle - 1390.3
Aguilera - 1291.3
Smith, L - 1289.3
Franco - 1245.7
Hiller - 1242
Reardon - 1132.3
Jones, D - 1128.3
Quisenberry - 1043.3
Sutter - 1042.3
   34. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 06, 2006 at 08:28 PM (#2053923)
So, he handly beats his contemporaries, and holds his own against the generation following him. It is not until the 1980s that he gets outrated.

I think he might be the best reliever of all time.


He's my all-time pick from the "fireman" mold. However, Rivera may wind up as the best relief pitcher, period, when he finally hangs up his cleats.
   35. Adam Schafer Posted: June 06, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#2053948)
The two main newbies come in at the top of my ballot. The rest of my ballot remains relatively unchanged. I respect Mazeroski and Wills, but neither are close to my ballot.

1. Hoyt Wilhelm - Not a hard decision for me to rank him #1

2. Roberto Clemente - Would have liked to have put him #1, but he wasn't THE best at his position, didn't redefine his position, and while great, wasn't AS great at his position as Hoyt was at his. A HOMer nonetheless.

3. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worse teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

4. George Sisler - Even during his "bad" years he could still get a ton of hits. Kiner like peak with some solid years to tack on for career voters.

5. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

6. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

7. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

8. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

9. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

10. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

11. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

12. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

13. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

14. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

15. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

16. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

17. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

18. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.

19. Ralph Kiner - Kiner finally breaks into the lower ranks of my ballot. If he could've had 2 more good (not even necassarily great) years, he could've moved up to the top 3 or 4 spots on my ballot. As is, not enough career value for me.

20. Billy Pierce - Close to Drysdale, but still not quite enough to squeeze into the top 15
   36. Mark Donelson Posted: June 06, 2006 at 10:52 PM (#2054191)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

My consensus score takes a bit of a dive this time; while I have both of the big-gun new eligibles on my ballot, neither is at the top. Despite this, though, Wilhelm and Clemente are my pHOM electees.

1978 ballot:

1. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Still simply the best eligible pitcher out there, IMO, comparable with some of the best ML pitchers of his era.

2. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

3. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I have to say I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least to anyone with as much of a peak emphasis as I have.

4. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs.

5. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another infielder with a great peak, from an underrepresented era.

6. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

7. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

8. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Perhaps not quite as good as I’d thought for several elections there. Still, impressive by any of my favorite measures.

9. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

10. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers.

11. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). A peak I just couldn’t argue around anymore.

12. Hoyt Wilhelm (pHOM 1978). I found what seems to me an acceptable balance of career value vs. peak performance for relievers, after having decided pure peak was going to keep them all out, and that this wasn’t right. In that system, though, Wilhelm, while near the top, isn’t the clear-cut best of all time, nor good enough to get past my peak-fave starting pitchers. He’s the best reliever so far by a long shot, though (Stu Miller is next), and will remain the best for some time. That’s certainly enough to get him on ballot and into my pHOM.

13. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.

14. Roberto Clemente (pHOM 1978). His peak is not negligible, and I agree he’s better than a lot of the guys we’ve elected of late, or are close to electing: Minoso, Slaughter, Ashburn. But I don’t have any of those guys in my pHOM yet, so that’s not an immensely compelling argument for me. And Clemente’s peak doesn’t get him into Kiner or Keller territory. He’s on ballot (barely) and in my pHOM (easily), though.

15. Bucky Walters (pHOM 1968). Another underrated pitcher with a solid peak.
   37. Mark Donelson Posted: June 06, 2006 at 10:58 PM (#2054204)
16-20: Sisler (1939), Rosen (1968), Bresnahan (1973), Redding (1975), C. Jones (1976)
21-25: E. Howard (1976), Browning, Joss, [Reese], Pierce, Fox
26-30: Leach, [W. Ford], [Slaughter], Doyle, Cravath, Berger, McGraw
31-35: H. Wilson, Oms, [Doerr], Minoso, Gomez, Chance
36-40: [Wynn], [Lyons], Poles, K. Boyer, [Ashburn], Roush, McCormick, J. Ryan
41-45: Elliott, [Lemon], G. Burns, Pesky, [Rixey], Colavito, Welch
46-50: Van Haltren, Trout, Veach, Rizzuto, B. Johnson

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Sisler. Again, two new eligibles keep him hanging just off my ballot. Long in my pHOM; I’ll be happy to see him elected if it ever happens.

•Redding. Not quite the peak of my favorite unelected eligible pitchers, but he’s close (and in my pHOM). At #19.

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren: very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. Midpack at #33.

•Sewell. Back from the dead? There’s just not remotely enough peak here for me; he’s just outside my top 50 at the moment.

•Beckley. No peak. What more is there to say?

•Wills. Better than I’d realized, but still short of Bancroft among SS, which leaves him well out of my top 50.

•Mazeroski. Great, great fielder, but he doesn’t make my top 50 either; I need a little more hitting than this.

•McLain. Yeah, there’s a peak, but some are even too short for me. He’s not Dean-lite—more like Luque-lite.
   38. Howie Menckel Posted: June 07, 2006 at 12:57 AM (#2054497)
1978 ballot, our 81st

Voting style: I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

My only two newbie considerations claimed my top 2 spots.

1. ROBERTO CLEMENTE - I thought I was going to go with Hoyt No. 1, due to Clemente's fairly irrelevant 1955-60. But wow, what a prime for Clemente after that! OPS+s of 170-68-58-51-49-46-45-45-38-35-35-21-15-05 - that's a dozen at 135 or better (a few late-career with 400-500 PAs, but still). The majority of HOMers cannot make that claim, and Clemente adds to his case with fielding. Glad to see that on balance, the wondrous player I remember isn't as overrated as I feared.
2. HOYT WILHELM - A fine No. 1 pick, if people prefer. An utter revolutionary, who in his one career chance to qualify for an ERA title - won an ERA title, in 1959. Wow. Fantasy players may notice this collective WHIP for 1962-69 - ages 39-46 - was under 1.000. Top 10 in saves 14 times. Threw 100 relief IP 10 times. Won 10+ relief games three times. ERA+ of 150 or better 12 times.

3. JAKE BECKLEY - This year's ballot comments haven't swayed me against him.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (twas a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Eddie Mathews had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted.
4. RALPH KINER - Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
5. CUPID CHILDS - Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better. This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support.
6. GEORGE SISLER - Some may have downgraded Banks over his comparison to Sisler, but that recognition actually moved Sisler up a slot on my ballot last year and this one. I'm also giving a fielding credit based on widespread reputation (I consider pre-1930 fielding stats to be problematic). Not much in that 2nd half of career, I'll admit, hitting or fielding. But the first half was something to see. A slight pitching boost, too.
7. BILLY PIERCE - The leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar, and be ahead of the curve when people start to realize, 'Wow, we may be underrating 1950s players!'
8. BOB ELLIOTT - Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details). I've also mulled him vs McGraw, which is a difficult comparison, but Bob wins that, too. Better than HOMer Hack as well.
9. GAVVY CRAVATH - Good to see more discussion of him, but I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
10. RUBE WADDELL - Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. I still think he had some direct impact in costing his team wins with his 'personality quirks,' but his overall effectiveness is impressive. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, and never led his league in IP and only top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But I'll give him this spot, at least.
11. DICK REDDING - The one big drop in this year's rankings; the new stats suggest that he wasn't the long-cateer workhorse that some of us had believed. A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. Think about how many Negro League hitters we have elected/are considering. This still may be the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way, and I now worry that the HOM won't, either.
12. MINNIE MINOSO - 4th time voting for him. Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but disappointed to see such negligible Negro Leagues credit. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
13. BOB JOHNSON - Moved up three spots 2 yrs ago after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
14. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot 2 yrs ago, and am tempted to move him up a little. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.
15. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite clings barely to the ballot for a 3rd straight year. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.

TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
JOSE MENDEZ - I reread his thread 2 yrs ago (it's long). I am satisfied as to Mendez being able to pitch to a level of a HOMer - but a long-career one, not a pure-peak one. Still better than most pitchers available, and could someday grab a No. 15 spot, but he doesn't quite rate with me right now. Sorry, Jose.
DOBIE MOORE - Similar in some ways to Mendez - short prime, some questionable opposition, much of that not in his hands, though. The MLEs on his thread underline to me showed him to be short of the level of a Gordon or a Childs, to pick two other middle INFs. An excellent player, but not for nearly long enough, and I'm not even satisfied that he was a big contributor with the glove at SS.
HUGH DUFFY - Win Shares gets him all wrong, and eventually they'll fix it. Excellent fielder, but geesh, he's not Ozzie Smith. As noted on the discussion thread, a non-WS look at the numbers leaves you wondering how he gets so many votes here.
JOE SEWELL - I prefer great-hitting SSs, or long-career ones, or great fielding ones at least. Sewell is a HOVG SS-3B.

OTHER JUST MISSED
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar nearly a decade ago, but fell just off the ballot 2 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but when the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15 at times.
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14th 7 yrs ago, is the 3rd NY Giant still in the mix. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Had not been on my ballot in many years before recently. Would haved been a better pick than Mackey.
LARRY DOYLE - Yep, another NY Giant! Hitting prime was great, this is Gordon without the fielding. Of course, at 2nd base, that means a lot. Could sneak back onto my ballot one day...
   39. jimd Posted: June 07, 2006 at 01:45 AM (#2054640)
McLain. Yeah, there’s a peak, but some are even too short for me. He’s not Dean-lite—more like Luque-lite.

Chesbro-lite?
   40. Rick A. Posted: June 07, 2006 at 01:52 AM (#2054655)
My consensus score will be going down this week.

PHOM
Hoyt Wilhelm
Alejandro Oms

1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
5. Hoyt Wilhelm – Had a hard time trying to evaluate his career, but I think I finally got a handle on it. Elected PHOM in 1978.
6. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
7. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
8. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
9. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
10. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11. Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
12. Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.
13. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
14. Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973.
15. Edd Roush – Forgot to give him some credit for his holdouts. I’m giving credit to C. Jones blacklist years and plan to give credit for strikes, so I should give credit for holdouts. Elected PHOM in 1975.

New Candidates
Roberto Clemente Just a little more peak would have placed him on my ballot. Just misses my ballot.
Bill Mazeroski Great fielder, but fielding only gets you so high. Ranked to the 70's.
Maury Wills About 5 slots below Mazeroski.
Tom Haller Very good catcher, but outside my top 100.

Required Disclosures
Sisler and Minoso Both just miss my ballot.
Sewell Behind Gordon, Doerr, Doyle, Stephens, and Rizzuto among middle infielders.
Beckley Never have been a Beckley fan. No peak.

Off the ballot
16-20 Bresnahan,Oms,Minoso,Clemente,Sisler
21-25 Cravath,Monroe,Waddell,Howard,Mays
27-30 Fox,Leach,McGraw,Johnson,WCooper
31-35 Elliott,Trouppe,Doyle,Boyer,Stephens
36-40 FJones,Matlock,Wilson,Keller,Rizzuto
41-45 Poles,HSmith,Newcombe,Tiernan,Winters
46-50 Rosen,Bond,Schang,ACooper,Van Haltren
51-55 Ryan,Easter,Sewell,Pesky,Traynor
   41. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: June 07, 2006 at 02:25 AM (#2054725)
1978 ballot

Clemente and Wilhelm make my PHOM
Rixey and Doerr remain my top two PHOM backloggers

1. Roberto Clemente (x, PHOM) - I am usually a big peak guy, but Clemente was very good for over a decade with enough MVP level seasons to top my ballot. He is overrated, same as contemporaries Banks, Snider, and Koufax, as he looked better than he actually played and he played in a city that has been bereft of baseball stars recently. Still, he is an easy HOMer.

2. Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) - After much deliberation I decided to put King Kong above Wilhelm. Keller is the only player on the board who was an MVP level player for the better part of a decade and that is really special if you ask me.

3. Hoyt Wilhelm (3, PHOM) - If I went solely by the numbers, Wilhelm would not be on my ballot, so something will have to be changed for relievers as he is probably the best ever. He is only #3 because of my nearly Hughie Jennings sized man crush on Keller.

4. Cupid Childs (3, PHOM) - I have everyone above him as second tier HOMers with Childs as the first lower tier guy. The best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion he had a very nice peak and a long career for a MIer of his era.

5. Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM) - Best of the 1890's CF trio based on his superior peak. I believe Win Shares that players deserve credit for their teams overplaying their pythags, which accounts for the discrepancy between WS and WARP on Duffy. A GREAT defensive Ofer.

6. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind only Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I have him as the top backlog starter on the baord and think that at his best he was as good as ‘peak’ candidate Mendez with a longer career.

7. Ralph Kiner (6, PHOM) - Seven consecutive HR titles is impressive no matter what the context. I like Keller combination of high OBP’s and decent defense over Kiner’s power advantage.

8. Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) - Do you prefer Ernie Banks peak or a slightly worse peak with a slightly worse decline? I prefer for former, which Dobie Moore embodies, over the latter, Which is how I rank George Sisler. New MLE’s have forced me to remove the ‘black Hughie Jennings’ tag as I am not sure how would ever have been the best player in baseball. Still a HOMer though.

9. Bucky Walters (9, PHOM) - Very high peak pitcher of the late 30's and early 40's. I have him about even with Waddell and Dean as a pitcher but his hitting advantage puts him a few spots higher. It is funny how that has effected my pitcher rankings so much.

10. Pete Browning (10, PHOM) - Probably the best hitter on the board. He would be up with Keller and Kiner if I didn’t have concerns about the quality of the 1880's AA.

11. Quincey Trouppe (11) - Best catcher in the backlog, I would much prefer he get in that the already elected Mackey. He was a much better hitter and was a good bit better at his best than Mackey.

12. Dizzy Dean (12) - High peak pitcher who was devastating at his best. If his best had lasted a year or two longer I think he would have gotten Koufax-like support as it stands I am confident that he is Sandy-light, which is enough for me.

13. Rube Waddell (13) - Devastating for six seasons, which is enough for a guy like me. I must say that rawagman’s chart showing that Waddell’s UER, while still high, was not out of place in his ear, was enough for me to vault this man child back onto my ballot. Definitely the best player ever to leave a game in order to chase a fire truck and I don’t think it is close.

14. Elston Howard (14) - Another high peak catcher. I see him as very similar to Trouppe. Both were good offensive catchers with high peaks who played significant time at other positions. Trouppe is slightly higher for me as he didn’t spend a lot of time on the bench and he played 3B instead of OF. Still, they are close.

15. Ken Boyer (15) - Very good defensive 3B, not as good as brother Clete but he was a much better hitter. If we are to get anything close to an even number of 3Bman when compared to other position in the HOM we will need to elect guys like Boyer or Bob Elliot. I prefer Boyer but I can see it either way.

Newbies

Maury Wills and Bill Mazeroski did not reach my top 60 (where I stop ranking players) though Wills was closer as he had a couple of very good seasons. Maz was the best defensive 2Bman ever, which may be enough for the HOF, but not for me. His bat never made him a truly impact player.

Required Disclosures

Sisler and Mendez are currently #’s 17 and 18, they have both been on my ballot before and will be again. Sisler is low because I don’t’ think his peak, on which his candidacy rests was as good as some think. Mendez is ranked lower as I have trouble seeing him as any better than Rube Waddell, who beats him by 14 points of ERA+ based on our MLE’s. Still, neither are bad HOM selections and are likely to make my PHOM down the road.

Beckley is a guy that I have never liked and will never like. I think that he is a mistake and will immediately be our worst selection since 1935, when I began. He was never a real impact player. Even a WS bonus of 2-3 WS (which is dubious as I am not convinced he was a great fielder) never makes him an MVP type player.

Joe Sewell is another guys I don’t’ like very much, but he is in the 30's for me. Why him and not Stephens or Rizzuto or Lundy? Sewell seems to benefit from being the best AL SS of the 1920's which doesn’t take into account guys who may have been better in Bancroft, Lundy (sort of, a little later actually), and Moore. Sometimes there are just positional valleys.

Minoso is someone that I don’t’ think ever really separates himself from the rest of the OF backlog. He may be slightly better than Burns, Johnson, and Veach, but it is close and does that make him a HOMer? Had he been as good as most of us presumed before his MLB career began I would support him, but the changed birth date and the corresponding MLE’s proved tome that he is HOVG material.
   42. Brent Posted: June 07, 2006 at 02:27 AM (#2054728)
1978 Ballot:

This year my personal hall of merit inductees are Clemente and Wilhelm.

1. Roberto Clemente – 8 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 35 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). His 2.87 fielding WS / 1000 innings are excellent for a corner outfielder. MVP for 1966, World Series MVP for 1971. Best player ever acquired from rule V draft. (PHoM 1978)

2. Orestes Miñoso – 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). He won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. As a hitter, during his prime he was quite comparable to Clemente—about the same isolated power, fewer singles and more walks, but in a slightly higher offensive context. Miñoso also had better in-season durability:
Average statistics ages 25-34Clemente 1960-69Miñoso 1951-60
Player     G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB   BA  OBP  SLG OPS
+
Clemente 148 578  93 190 26 10 18  87  6  2 43 .328 .375 .501 .875          
Rel
-to-lg                                       125  115  128  143  
Miñoso   157 586 104 180 31  8 17  94 19 13 74 .307 .397 .476 .873
Rel
-to-lg                                       116  117  120  137
*Seasons adjusted to 162-game schedule

Clemente had 3 more good seasons after age 34, though he missed quite a few games. Miñoso had one good season at 35 plus a couple of good seasons before age 25 in the NeL/minor leagues. Both were excellent corner outfielders, though the Clemente was probably better. Clemente is ahead in the comparison, but the gap isn’t huge—I can’t see a rationale for anyone placing Clemente in an elect-me slot while leaving Miñoso off the ballot. (PHoM 1970)

3. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

4. Hoyt Wilhelm – I’m not sure I agree with the sentiment that he’s the greatest reliever ever, but for our purposes we don’t have to answer that question. Over his 10 best seasons as a reliever (1952-54, 1961-65, 67, 69) he averaged 9-7, 16 saves, 120 IP, 137 DERA+, 88 SO, 41 BB. Also had a great season as a starter in 1959. (PHoM 1978)

5. Phil Rizzuto – A truly great player, underappreciated by the voters here. Great defensive shortstop and an above-average hitter for the position. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

6. Ken Boyer – 8 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 33 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); MVP for 1964. (PHoM 1975)

7. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

8. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

9. Gavy Cravath – From ages 32-36 his OPS+ stats were 172-160-171-147-153. However, he was just continuing what he’d been doing for years, while he was with Los Angeles at age 26 and with Minneapolis from ages 28-30. (PHoM 1976)

10. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1967)

11. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

12. Elston Howard – Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964. (PHoM 1977)

13. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

14. Dick Redding – “One of the great pitchers of black baseball” —James A. Riley. (PHoM 1976)

15. Burleigh Grimes – Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 116 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

Near misses:

16–20. Moore, Newcombe, Keller, Fox, Arlett
21–25. Easter, Bresnahan, Leach (PHoM 1932), Rosen, Kiner

Other consensus top 10:

16. Dobie Moore – Excellent shortstop; just misses my ballot.

47 George Sisler – Peak and prime were not as impressive as those of other hitters such as Cravath, Keller, and Kiner; his non-prime seasons don’t get much credit from me.

79. Joe Sewell – I can’t see it.

Not in my top 100. Jake Beckley – I’m not drinking that brand of kool-aid.

Other new arrivals:

Maury Wills ranks # 82. Sabermetrics may have let a lot of air out of stolen bases as an offensive tool, but as a fan it sure was a lot more fun watching Wills go for second (and then third) than watching Gilliam draw a walk. Wills the player was a childhood hero of mine – what a disappointment it was to read his autobiography and become acquainted with the man.

Tom Haller ranks # 97. Why is it that the interesting marginal catcher candidates never get their own threads? (For other examples, see Crandall and Lollar.)

Denny McLain – doesn’t make my top 100, but he had a couple of truly great seasons.

Bill Mazeroski – great glove, but doesn’t make my top 100. I knew that he and Clemente were teammates for a long time, but until I was filling in my ballot I hadn’t realized it was for Mazeroski’s entire 17-season career. What’s the record for most consecutive seasons by two players on the same team?
   43. Cblau Posted: June 07, 2006 at 02:32 AM (#2054740)
Howie-
Wilhelm actually qualified for the ERA title twice, and won it both times. 1952 as well as 1959.
   44. DanG Posted: June 07, 2006 at 04:05 AM (#2054872)
What’s the record for most consecutive seasons by two players on the same team?

Trammell and Whitaker 1977-1995
   45. Mefisto Posted: June 07, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2055430)
Hoyt Wilhelm (A+) – I would say that the top 3 to 5 relievers of all time would be in the top 2 on this ballot, and Hoyt is likely the No. 1 reliever of all-time. What would his entrance music have been?

Flight of the Bumblebee.
   46. Mark Donelson Posted: June 07, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#2055446)
Chesbro-lite?

Not bad!
   47. Trevor P. Posted: June 07, 2006 at 09:12 PM (#2055479)
Brent, I think I'll be adding Minoso to my ballot this week. He's always been hovering close to the bottom, but your comparison to Clemente has convinced me to move him up a few spots.

I was wondering, though - how would Bob Johnson compare to Clemente and Minoso if you used his age 27-36 seasons, prorated to 162 games? That period would account for most of his pre-WW2 seasons.
   48. OCF Posted: June 07, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2055531)
Chesbro-lite?

Not bad!


Over on the McLain thread, I suggested Smokey Joe Wood, without the return as an outfielder, as a comp. But that I also thought Wood was better.
   49. Chris Fluit Posted: June 07, 2006 at 10:50 PM (#2055581)
1. Roberto Clemente, OF (n/e). Among the best non-consecutive peaks on the ballot for batters, scattering black ink in several years from 1961 to 1967. The longest prime for any batter on the ballot, with 12 All-Star appearances and 12 Gold Gloves between 1960 and 1972. And the best career value of any batter on the ballot. An easy number one.

2. Hoyt Wilhelm, P (n/e). The best pitcher on the ballot. There are a few better peak candidates but the length of his prime and the value of his career push Wilhelm ahead of everybody else. Plus, I like that Wilhelm beat the old record for saves by 91.

3. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (2). The best starting pitcher on the ballot, according to his MLEs. I also like that his own winning percentage was better than his team’s by 100 points.

4. Jose Mendez, P (3). His MLEs are slightly lower than Redding’s and slightly better than Pierce’s actual numbers.

5. Nellie Fox, 2B (4). Fox was an outstanding defensive second basemen- winning three gold gloves- and an ideal top of the line-up hitter- routinely landing in top ten lists for Runs (7 times), AVG (8), Hits (10) and Triples (11). Plus he has a long prime during which he was acknowledged as the best at his position, picking up MVP votes in 10 seasons and being named an All-Star 12 times.

6. Quincy Trouppe, C (5). I think he’s the best catcher on the ballot with more great years than anybody else at his position. Not that Mackey was a bad pick, but Trouppe would have been the better one.

7. Billy Pierce, P (6). The best Major League starting pitcher on the ballot. An All-Star 7 times between 1953 and 1961, TSN named him AL Pitcher of the Year for 1956 and 1957 so he’s got both the peak and the prime. During that prime, Pierce also made the adjustment from being a strikeout pitcher- leading the league in Ks in 1953 and Ks per 9 IP in ’53 and ’55- to an innings eater –leading the league in Complete Games from 1956-’58- demonstrating that he’s smart as well as talented.

8. Minnie Minoso, OF (7). He was an All-Star as soon as he entered the Major Leagues, getting named to the actual team 7 times and picking up MVP votes 8 times. He was routinely among the league leaders, finishing in the top ten eight or nine times each for AVG, OBP, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, 2Bs and Stolen Bases. A little bit of Negro League credit at the beginning of his career gives him the added boost to offset the lack of black ink.

9. Hugh Duffy, OF (8). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

10. Ernie Lombardi, C (9). Lombardi was a solid All-Star 8 times between 1936 and 1945 and the MVP in 1938. He was top ten in the league 5 times in Home Runs, 7 times in AVG and 8 times in SLG.

11. George Sisler, 1B (10). His peak isn't quite as long as Duffy's as Sisler was only among the very best for a three-year period from 1920-22. However, he had a longer prime, picking up top ten slots in average, stolen bases, total bases and hits 8, 9, 9 and 11 times. Also, the career numbers aren't as bad as the Hall of Merit discussion led me to believe.

12. Mickey Welch, P (11). Mickey Welch is back on my ballot after dropping off last year. Sure, he was never among the very best in the game and he lacks the black ink that I tend to admire. But he was among the very good for such a long time that he has the best career numbers of anyone on the ballot.

13. Ken Boyer, 3B (13). One outstanding season in 1964 was good enough for an MVP. Otherwise, Boyer had a solid prime from 1956 to 1964 picking up top ten finishes routinely in AVG, OBP, SLG, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, triples, home runs and RBIs. Easily the best at his underrepresented position.

14. Ralph Kiner OF (14). Led the league in Home Runs 7 straight seasons and finished fifth one more time. But Kiner was more than just a one-dimensional player. Fans of both OPS and Adjusted OPS+ should be impressed by his league-leading numbers in those categories in 1947, ’49 and ’51.

15. Joe Sewell, SS (n/a). Ron Wargo convinced me in the Maury Wills discussion that I had been underrating Joe Sewell. Usually I like a bit of black ink even from glove positions, but Joe Sewell’s all-around play- hitting, getting on-base and fielding- make him a worthy candidate. He’s the Alan Trammell of his day.

New eligibles:
Maury Wills: I made the case for Wills, and I still think I like him more than electorate as a whole, but not enough to bump either Boyer or Kiner off the ballot. I could have had Wills as high as 10, but right now I have him as low as 20.
Necessary disclosures:
Jake Beckley: I’ve voted for Beckley before and probably will again when we cut down the backlog in the mid-‘80s elections. For now, Beckley is sitting at 19 on my ballot tracker.
Dobie Moore: I find Moore hard to assess. He had the great peak, but by playing for a military team at the beginning of his career and the early end to his career due to getting shot in a domestic dispute, there’s just too much guesswork for me to feel comfortable giving him a ballot spot at this time.
   50. Brent Posted: June 08, 2006 at 04:10 AM (#2055971)
Brent, I think I'll be adding Minoso to my ballot this week. He's always been hovering close to the bottom, but your comparison to Clemente has convinced me to move him up a few spots.

I was wondering, though - how would Bob Johnson compare to Clemente and Minoso if you used his age 27-36 seasons, prorated to 162 games? That period would account for most of his pre-WW2 seasons.


Average statisticsClemente 1960-69Miñoso 1951-60Johnson 1933-42

Player     G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB   BA  OBP  SLG OPS
+
Clemente 148 578  93 190 26 10 18  87  6  2 43 .328 .375 .501 .875          
Rel
-to-lg                                       125  115  128  143  
Miñoso   157 586 104 180 31  8 17  94 19 13 74 .307 .397 .476 .873
Rel
-to-lg                                       116  117  120  137
Johnson  153 571 105 170 32  8 27 109  8  5 90 .298 .395 .520 .915
Rel
-to-lg                                       106  111  126  137

*Seasons adjusted to 162-game schedule 

Johnson and Miñoso had the same OPS+ over these 10-year periods. Johnson had more home run power, but a lower batting average than Miñoso, and of course he played in a higher offense context. I'd rate Miñoso with a small advantage on offense because of the higher relative OBP and with a fairly large advantage on defense (Miñoso won 3 Gold Gloves and earned 2.76 fielding WS/1000 innings compared to Johnson's 2.31 and Clemente's 2.87). Johnson isn't a bad corner outfield candidate, but I see Miñoso as clearly ahead.
   51. sunnyday2 Posted: June 08, 2006 at 04:13 AM (#2055975)
Ah, the case for Minnie Minoso. He was pretty darn near Roberto Clemente.
   52. Howie Menckel Posted: June 08, 2006 at 04:51 AM (#2056020)
duly noted, cblau.

Wouldn't change my vote, but how great is that - this RP, whose peak arguably is in the late 1960s, wins the ERA title in his only two qualifications - in 1952 and 1959.

You want entrance music for him? You want one of a kind - either Miles Davis, or Bob Dylan..
   53. TomH Posted: June 08, 2006 at 12:41 PM (#2056081)
If Minoso looks like Clemente (and he might), it should be mentioned again that Bob Johnson looks a lot like Minoso.....

1978 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or RCAP adjusted for defense and timeline. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes (or value above average) higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Roberto Clemente {new}
Overrated but still great.
2- Hoyt Wilhelm {new}
I didn’t take the time required to justify his placement below or above Roberto’s, ‘cause it really don’t matter much. I’ll try to catch up on all of the fine relievers research in future weeks. For now, Hoyt is clearly a top-2 guy for me.


3- Bucky Walters (3) [22]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too. His perceived great peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Reds’ gold glove defense.
4- Joe Sewell (2) [7]
Bumped down one notch this ballot. Re-examined he and Maranville, and am now convinced it’s much closer than the gulf I had pictured. Maybe my thinking had been WARPed ? :) Anyways, the Rabbit enters my top 40.
5- Jake Beckley (5) [8]
Very fine career, quite understated by Win Shares.
6- John McGraw (6) [34]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen and especially 1890s infielders. He was a brilliant tactician as well.
7- Ken Boyer (7) [15]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league. Could’ve used another productive year or two. League strength puts him above Elliot.
8- George Van Haltren (8) [14]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
9- Billy Pierce (9) [13]
Similar to Bucky Walters. Good value out of the bullpen helps him some.
10- Minnie Minoso (10) [6]
Looks an awful lot like Bob Johnson.
11- Cupid Childs (13) [12]
Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him.
12- Frank Chance (11) [52]
Every ballot I howl at the moon.
13- Bob Johnson (12) [27]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
14- Ralph Kiner (14) [11]
As a kid I listened to Kiner’s Korner, a wrap-up after Mets games. Never really knew who he was.
15- Charlie Keller (off) [29]
Monster bat that Pete Browning’s supporters ought to fall in love with! Compares well with Sisler; just not as famous.

Top 10 disclosures: D Redding #16, G Sisler #17, J Mendez #20, D Moore #27, Duffy around #50

Dick Redding - a HoF vote for Cannonball would have dotted the “i”s on his resume.

I’d feel better about Mendez if the 1952 Courier poll had ranked him higher.

I completely understand those peaksters who have Mendez or Dobie Moore at #1. As for me, I rank Moore higher than I did Hughie Jennings (he condemns with faint praise).

Hugh Duffy was not a great hitter, nor even a very good one. He had one great year, and a bunch of decent ones. He will never make my ballot unless we find consensus that his defense was fabulous.
   54. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 08, 2006 at 01:13 PM (#2056096)
Hoyt is likely the No. 1 reliever of all-time. What would his entrance music have been?

"Blowin' in the Wind"
   55. TomH Posted: June 08, 2006 at 01:31 PM (#2056105)
upside down
boy you're turnin me
inside out
round and round
   56. sunnyday2 Posted: June 08, 2006 at 01:52 PM (#2056119)
>I’d feel better about Mendez if the 1952 Courier poll had ranked him higher.

To me, the Courier poll is completely understandable...and almost totally useless.

The voters in the Courier poll = the current voters today in the VC, especially as it relates to old-time players they hadn't seen (hadn't played with or against).
   57. TomH Posted: June 08, 2006 at 03:00 PM (#2056158)
(will move my Courier poll Qs in Neg Lgs thread)
   58. Jeff M Posted: June 08, 2006 at 03:27 PM (#2056176)
1978 Ballot

1. Clemente, Roberto – Having not seen him play, I thought he was more of a power hitter and was killed in his prime. Silly me. No matter. He could hit, and he obviously played a splendid right field.

2. Wilhelm, Hoyt – If he’s not a HoMer, we may as well close the doors for relievers.

3. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

4. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

5. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

6. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

7. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

8. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

9. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

10. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32. This is a shaky placement, and if he gets closer to election, I'm going to have to look closer.

11. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

12. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon. It might be a mistake to have him behind Wilson, Clarkson and Minoso.

13. Dean, Dizzy – Short career obviously seriously affects his standing.

14. Pierce, Billy – I don’t think he is HoM-worthy, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

15. McGraw, John – Back on the ballot after a long absence. I haven’t touched him. We’ve just backed into him. He’d obviously be in on the managerial side.

Required Disclosure(s):

Redding, Dick – I was in the downtown library recently and glanced through five or six books about the Negro Leagues. They focused primarily on what a character Redding was. Doesn’t sound like a HoMer to me.

Mendez, Jose –It probably won’t surprise anyone that I’ve got Mendez way off the ballot, given how much I differ from the electorate on Cool Papa and Redding. Though, he’s not in never never land like Redding. I’m committed to giving him another look.

Moore, Dobie – I’ve never been sure where to place him. Data seems particularly sketchy. I value other Negro Leaguers higher than these three.

Beckley, Jake -- He’s #41, a little behind Hack Wilson, tied with Urban Shocker, and a nudge ahead of Dave Bancroft.
   59. Trevor P. Posted: June 08, 2006 at 03:59 PM (#2056206)
Thanks again, Brent. That comparison reinforces an important point - even when you ignore Johnson's war-inflated seasons (like that 177 OPS+ Johnson posts in 1944), his offensive prime stacks up pretty well against both Minoso and Clemente.

A lot of Johnson vs. Minoso comes down to defense - WS sees Minoso as better; FRAA doesn't. That's what I'll be chewing on before I post my ballot this weekend.
   60. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 08, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2056259)
it should be mentioned again that Bob Johnson looks a lot like Minoso.....

Then why all the fuss about Jackie Robinson?

;-)
   61. Jim Sp Posted: June 08, 2006 at 09:59 PM (#2056529)
Maz #44, even I don’t like second basemen enough to get him on the ballot. Tom Haller and Maury Wills not top #100 but surprisingly close.

Ashburn on deck for PHoM, then Keller and Kiner.

1) Wilhelm--Greatest reliever ever.
2) Clemente--
3) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one. PHoM in 1970.
4) Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
5) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
6) Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B before Mathews. PHoM in 1960.
7) Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
8) Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. Compare to Julian Javier, his hitting was way above replacement.
9) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right. PHoM in 1970.
10) Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
11) Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs. PHoM 1972.
12) Lombardi-- A long career as a catcher with a big bat. Almost 2000 games caught including PCL. PHoM 1976.
13) Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control. PHoM 1975
14) Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit. 10 top 10 seasons in AL ERA+. PHoM 1975.
15) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976.
16) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
17) Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
18) Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters. PHoM in 1916.
19) Keller
20) Kiner

Sisler--#88, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years. See also Jack Fournier.
Mendez--#31, I rate him right below Joss. PHoM in 1932.
Redding--#42.
Hugh Duffy—#77. Good hitter, great fielder. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan are even in my estimation, but off the ballot.
Moore--#33, I didn’t vote for Jennings either.
Kiner--#20
Van Haltren--#78, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Childs--#56. Steep discount for his domination of the 1890 AA, otherwise he would be higher.
   62. Howie Menckel Posted: June 09, 2006 at 12:27 AM (#2056795)
nature of my job, I guess, but that missing i in "wlhelm" at the top of the page here is just killing me, Mrph...

:)
   63. Rob_Wood Posted: June 09, 2006 at 12:27 AM (#2056797)
1978 ballot:

1. Roberto Clemente - long and productive career
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career
3. Hoyt Wilhelm - difficult to peg, thanks to Joe and everybody for their great discussion
4. George Van Haltren - star of the underrepresented 1890s
5. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
6. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
7. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
8. Cupid Childs - very good second baseman during the 1890s
9. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
10. George Sisler - half a super career is enuf for me
11. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop, could be higher
13. Joe Sewell - best shortstop of his time
14. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
15. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
-----
16-20. Pie Traynor, Chuck Klein, Minnie Minoso, Tommy Leach, & Jose Mendez

Not voting for: Dick Redding (very good pitcher I have just off ballot)
and Hugh Duffy (not anywhere near the ballot).
   64. Paul Wendt Posted: June 09, 2006 at 12:36 AM (#2056826)
jimd Posted: June 05, 2006 at 06:28 PM (#2052299)
something by Herbie Mann on the flute. When i fix the turntable, I'll listen again and tell you which one.

Let me preface this by saying that I know nothing about Wilhelm's taste in music. It's quite possible that Hoyt could have encountered young Herbie Mann during his days with the Giants, so you might have something there, or you may know about his tastes. I was thinking, based on his age and birthplace, more along the lines of Flatt and Scruggs.

I know nothing but I think (jazzy) flute for the flutterby pitch.

I considered Blight of the Fumblebee, too.
   65. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 09, 2006 at 11:34 AM (#2057438)
I was thinking, based on his age and birthplace, more along the lines of Flatt and Scruggs.

I have seen Earl Scruggs a few times. The old guy can still play.

nature of my job, I guess, but that missing i in "wlhelm" at the top of the page here is just killing me, Mrph...

:)


I'll correct it sometime today, Hwie. ;-) My backup hard drive died over the weekend (which makes the computer inoperable despite that drive's slave status), so that screwed things up for me and I rushed everything Monday morning.
   66. andrew siegel Posted: June 09, 2006 at 02:27 PM (#2057568)
(1) Clemente (new)--Like Banks, he doesn't live up to his reputation, but still tops the ballot.
(2) Wilhelm (new)-- I had him first on the prelim but am convinced by Joe's numbers that he simply didn't pitch enough innings to rank in the top 75 or so players of All-Time. I'd have Drysdale about 6th on this ballot and Bunning around 15th, so this placement includes a major bomus for uniqueness.
(3)Keller (2nd)--One notch better for his prime than guys like Moore, Sisler, Kiner, and Berger.
(4) Roush (3rd)--Solid CF who always ranked in the top 10 in his league offensively. Solid prime; solid career.
(5) Mendez (5th)--Looks like Bob Lemon, or perhaps Rube Waddell with a brain and a bat.
(6) Leach (8th)--Lots of All-Star seasons by every metric.
(7) Minoso (4th)--Has the prime; negro league credit gives him the career. Ranks very highly among 1950s position players. His prime close enough to Clemente's to raise eyebrows.
(8) Cravath (11th)--My gradual reconsideration of all old candidates shows that I dropped the ball with him. Great--though scattered prime--and 300-plus WS.
(9) Sisler (13th)--If you look at how an informed fan would have ranked him among all the players in the majors at the end of his good years, those numbers are VERY high; peak is quite good when short seasons and league quality are taken into account.
(10) Sewell (6th)--Doprs a bit when I do season to season comparisons to sisler but still fully qualified.
(11) Duffy (7th)--This week nly giving him partial extra credit for all the excess offensive WS.
(12) Van Haltren (9th)--Very good for a very long time, but lots of good 1890s OF's.
(13) Pierce (12th)--Ranks strongly among 1950s ptichers.
(14) Trouppe (14th)--Best catcher on ballot.
(15) Oms (15th)--Fully qualified but era and position are well-represented.

Redding's numbers don't impress me; I run hot and cold on Beckley but was fairly peruaded by Kelly's lists (he's in the 20's for me right now); Moore has been on my ballot for years and as high as number 1, but Chris's new numbers drop his peak below where I excpeted it to be. Since he has no career, he really needs a Keller-esque 7-year run.

Next 15: Elliot, Childs, Johnson, Bridges, Moore (10th).
   67. rico vanian Posted: June 09, 2006 at 08:27 PM (#2058036)
1) Roberto Clemente
2) Hoyt Wilhelm
3) Nellie Fox
4) Pie Traynor
5) Phil Rizzuto
6) Ralph Kiner
7) Ernie Lombardi
8) George Sisler
9) Ken Boyer
10) Billy Pierce
11) Chuck Klein
12) Burleigh Grimes
13) Gil Hodges
14) Tony Lazzeri
15) Hack Wilson
   68. OCF Posted: June 09, 2006 at 08:54 PM (#2058064)
rico: you're trying to be a new voter, so we're going to have to hold you to the rules. You really do need to give an argument for each of the people you're voting for. And you have to explain why you're not voting for Mendez, Redding, Minoso, Sewell, Beckley, Duffy, and Moore. I don't think we can count your ballot until you do those things.
   69. Daryn Posted: June 09, 2006 at 09:28 PM (#2058096)
It is a nice ballot, though. :)
   70. yest Posted: June 09, 2006 at 09:49 PM (#2058114)
It is a nice ballot, though. :)
exept those Yankee middle infielders
   71. sunnyday2 Posted: June 09, 2006 at 10:06 PM (#2058136)
And nobody older than George Sisler. So I'd like to hear that Beckley and Duffy were considered/analyzed/whatever.
   72. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 10, 2006 at 12:53 AM (#2058405)
I had an e-mail conversation with Rico earlier in the afternoon and mentioned the rules to him. He told me he would submit a revised ballot sometime this weekend.
   73. dan b Posted: June 10, 2006 at 01:46 AM (#2058521)
PHoM class of 1978 – Clemente, Sisler

1. Clemente PHoM 1978. I am a Pittsburgh Pirates season ticket holder, and here in Pittsburgh, Roberto is generally revered as “The Great Roberto”, one of the greatest players ever. When I try to point out to fellow Pirate fans that Clemente’s place in history may not have been as high as they think, I start by listing contemporary OF that were arguably better. Too often, naming Frank Robinson and even Hank Aaron gets a “Not so fast – they didn’t play in Forbes Field” response. My question is, do Pirate fans lead the league in provincialism or does Pete Rose have an even bigger army of fans in Cincinnati convinced that Rose was better than Cobb? Or perhaps Kirby Puckett fans in Minnesota, Cal Ripken fans in Baltimore or Duke Snider fans in Brooklyn.
That being said, Clemente is an easy number one on this ballot and anyone putting Wilhelm above him is underrating Clemente. As DL from MN said above, "I can't fathom how Wilhelm could provide more value in 2254 innings than Clemente did in 2433 games."
2. Duffy PHoM 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons
3. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
4. Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. Closest thing on ballot to Koufax.
5. Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
6. Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
7. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
8. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks puts Diz on my ballot for the first time.
9. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Dropping a few spots in 1975 – too many corner OF near top of my ballot.
10. Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
· 3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
· 5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
· 8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
· WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
· OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
· NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
· HoM Support – Roush slowly coming around? Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! That’s a shame.
11. Minoso PHoM 1972.
12. Sisler PHoM 1978. 1975 reevaluation puts him on ballot for first time in 30 years.
13. Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
14. Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
15. Wilhelm Ron Wargo posted WS/300 rates on his ballot (just for fun, but I took seriously seeing Wilhelm with 34 and Drysdale with 22) and I drew some fire for pointing out that Wilhelm’s numbers were dwarfed by more recent RP like Sutter, Rivera and Hoffman. The same reasoning that rejects using WS rates to compare RP of different generations also makes them meaningless for comparing RP of any generation with starting pitchers. From the Meaningless Trivia Department, he never led his league in saves. I am sure his catchers frequently led the league in PB.
16. Cooper, W. Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942. HoF just admitted the wrong Cooper.
17. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
18. Fox
19. Ashburn
20. C. Mays
21. Chance
   74. AJMcCringleberry Posted: June 10, 2006 at 02:36 AM (#2058637)
1. Roberto Clemente - Pretty easy #1, 130 OPS+, great D in right.

2. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

3. Joe Sewell - Outstanding shortstop. And could hit a little bit too.

4. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting centerfielder, long career

5. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

6. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

7. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

8. Hoyt Wilhelm - Seems like a good spot to put him. Best reliever in history.

9. George Van Haltren - Good hitting CFer, over 400 adjusted win shares.

10. Minnie Minoso - Very good hitter, over 350 win shares after adding his negro league career.

11. George Sisler - Outstanding peak, career changed after injury. Could've been an all time great.

12. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Get a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

13. Hugh Duffy - Good peak, highlighted by his outstanding 1894 season.

14. Bucky Walters - Most of his value comes from his 39-46 seasons.

15. Jose Mendez - Outstanding peak, not much in the way of career value.

16. Bob Elliot
17. Edd Rousch
18. Tommy Leach
19. Harry Hooper
20. Alejandro Oms
21. Buzz Arlett
22. Dizzy Trout
23. Gil Hodges
24. Fielder Jones
25. Pie Traynor
26. Ralph Kiner - Short career
27. Billy Pierce
28. Cupid Childs
29. Wally Berger
30. Dick Bartell

Dick Redding - outside of his three year peak he doesn't impress me much

Dobie Moore - Great peak, but no career.
   75. Howie Menckel Posted: June 10, 2006 at 03:37 AM (#2058780)
"As DL from MN said above, "I can't fathom how Wilhelm could provide more value in 2254 innings than Clemente did in 2433 games." "

Well, Clemente's first 627 games produced a below 100 OPS+ score. As an outfielder, no less. How much are THEY worth to his HOM case? And that's more than 25 pct of his career.
Meanwhile, the bulk of Wilhelm's IP are late in games.

Anyway, pitcher's innings are worth a lot more than batter's games.

I still wound up with Clemente No. 1 due to his long prime, but I don't understand this argument at all.
   76. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 10, 2006 at 12:31 PM (#2059021)
"As DL from MN said above, "I can't fathom how Wilhelm could provide more value in 2254 innings than Clemente did in 2433 games." "

Including Koufax, Dan? ;-)
   77. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 10, 2006 at 12:36 PM (#2059022)
My question is, do Pirate fans lead the league in provincialism or does Pete Rose have an even bigger army of fans in Cincinnati convinced that Rose was better than Cobb? Or perhaps Kirby Puckett fans in Minnesota, Cal Ripken fans in Baltimore or Duke Snider fans in Brooklyn.

I think that can be found at any park, Dan. The older you get, the more pronounced it becomes. :-)
   78. Daryn Posted: June 10, 2006 at 12:50 PM (#2059029)
I think that can be found at any park, Dan. The older you get, the more pronounced it becomes. :-)

Indeed, here in Toronto, Alomar has that status, and we still can't figure out how they kept Carter out of the Hall of Fame.
   79. DL from MN Posted: June 10, 2006 at 01:47 PM (#2059050)
I have Wilhelm ahead of Koufax. Blasphemy?
   80. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 10, 2006 at 01:49 PM (#2059053)
I have Wilhelm ahead of Koufax. Blasphemy?

:-)
   81. sunnyday2 Posted: June 10, 2006 at 02:22 PM (#2059062)
Speaking from the province of Minnesota, the most provincial fans of all have to be Red Sox Nation, eh?

Nobody in the National League is even close. All the "best" fans seem to be in the AL, with the exception of the Clemente family.

No offense intended, but that's the view from here.

I think Twins FANS are generally pretty realistic about guys like Puckett and Carew (I mean, what do you expect from the FRANCHISE itself, especially with Puckett's untimely death). Killebrew is king among the more knowledgeable fans that I know, anybody who preferred Carew was clearly of the anti-HR and I-don't-know-nuthin'-'bout-no-BB crowd, both of which are dwindling fast). I do think Kent Hrbek was underrated but even he was a HoG (not even HoVG). If I'm chauvinistic, it's about Bobby Allison, not the race car driver. And if Twins fans generally over-rate anybody it's Tony O, though according to the last VC ballot it's not just Twins fans.
   82. SWW Posted: June 10, 2006 at 09:18 PM (#2059428)
New job is wreaking havoc with my schedule. Not complaining; love the new job. Just noting the delay. Wouldn’t miss this ballot, though.

<u>1978 Ballot</u>
1) Roberto Clemente Walker
“If you have a chance to accomplish something that will make things better for people coming behind you, and you don't do that, you are wasting your time on this earth.” 20th on SABR Top 100. 20th on Sporting News Top 100. 29th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 32th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 74th on Bill James Top 100. 12th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) James Hoyt Wilhelm
Well, we’ve really never seen a player quite like Hoyt on our ballot before. Some are calling him the best reliever of all time, and his performance certainly goes a long way to establishing the position. (Even though they kept trying to make him a starter anyway.) 77th on SABR Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Got nothing done on my oft-mentioned Keltner list for Burleigh. For now, I’ll just repeat that he’s consistently the best pitcher on his team (even trading off with Dazzy Vance), and a few times the best player. So that’s one of the things he’s got going for him. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
I’m beginning to understand how all those Lip Pike voters felt, year after year, just waiting for the election they knew would eventually come, so they could finally make a change on their ballot. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
The reconsideration of his Negro League performance helped a little, but another look at his major league numbers helped even more. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. Definitely the best left fielder on the ballot. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
6) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I have him at the head of a pack of very good second basemen, including recent inductees Doerr and Gordon. Slight edge for six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. It’s close, though.
7) Edd J Roush
Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate. Really no fuss at all with Edd.
8) Hugh Duffy
Fun fact: Duffy hasn’t finished in the Top 10 since 1932. A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Kind of in the Sisler mode, although the peak is a lot sharper. I do like me some center fielders.
9) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
10) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Certainly one of the best third baseman we’ve seen on the ballot. Mathews signaled the vanguard of a new age for third basemen, and Boyer follows his lead.
11) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Benefits from corrected numbers. Always struck me as similar to Clark Griffith. 22nd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
12) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but Rice is hovering on the tail end of my ballot, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
13) Carl William Mays
Carl has bounced on and off my ballot over the years, which I will assume is Ray Chapman’s karmic revenge. A gentler career arc than that of Ferrell or Lemon, higher highs than Willis. Frankly, I think the only reason more people voted for Lemon is the black ink. Mays is higher in career WS, peak, WS, prime WS, and they’re practically even in gray ink.
14) José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
I took a closer look at the leading Negro League pitchers on the ballot (it’s how I discovered the faulty math), and my concern about the pure peak-ness of Mendez’ career has me worried anew. He’s still got a place on the ballot. Just not as high as before. 4th Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll (as a utility player, not pitcher).
15) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Hanging on for another year, ahead of a cluster of very talented players who are just not quite there. Great career numbers, and consistently the best position player on a very bad team for a very long time. Also impressive owing to the unusually late start to his career. The utter flatness of his career arc is Beckley-esque, which I’m not thrilled about.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Joseph Wheeler Sewell
I go back and forth between Sewell and Vern Stephens, and I keep changing my mind as to who is better. In any event, they’re positioned just off my ballot. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I tend towards career numbers, but Beckley’s are so without peak that I’m hard pressed to call him a great. He actually manages to have less of a peak than Sam Rice. I like Jake, and I wouldn’t complain about his election, but I just don’t think he’s earned a spot on the ballot.
Walter Moore – “Dobie”
Strong similarities to Hughie Jennings, whose candidacy I ultimately did not endorse. Possibly would have won some MVPs in a more just universe (or at least not gotten shot), but the short career he had in this life does not get my vote.
   83. dan b Posted: June 11, 2006 at 02:49 AM (#2059612)
"As DL from MN said above, "I can't fathom how Wilhelm could provide more value in 2254 innings than Clemente did in 2433 games." "

Including Koufax, Dan? ;-)


John, I stand corrected and wish to withdraw my endorsement of DL from MN's flawed argument. :-) I would take Koufax over Clemente and Clemente over any RP.
   84. rico vanian Posted: June 11, 2006 at 04:48 AM (#2059729)
OK guys ... here goes...after being at Yankee Stadium for the last 2 Yanks/A's debacles...


1) Roberto Clemente - 3000 hits, rocket arm, 12 all star games, mvp.
2) Hoyt Wilhelm - Not the best reliever in history (I rate Gossage, Rivera and Hoffman over him), but the first of his kind. Mind blowing that he played 20 years and didn't come up till he was 29. 53 games and over 80 innings at the age of 47 is beyond the pale.
3) Nellie Fox - 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times.
4) Phil Rizzuto - SS on the team with the greatest period ever. 3 years lost to WW2 would have put him over 200 hits and ended the debate.
6) Ralph Kiner - 7 home run tiles in a row.
7) George Sisler - 2800 hits, 340 career average. 2 timnes over 400
8) Ernie Lombardi - 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, 300 career average as a catcher!
9) Gil Hodges - terrific hitter and fielder for the great 50's Dodgers teams
10) Chuck Klein - 3 hr titles, triple crown.
11) Burleigh Grimes - 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
12) Pie Trayner - 320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
13) Ken Boyer - 2nd best NL 3rd baseman after Matthews in 50's-60's. MVP 7 all star games. Better hitter than Brooks Robinson and almost as good in the field.
14) Jose Mendez- So much of his career is anecdotal, it's hard to quantify.
14) Tony Lazzeri - 2B for the great yankees teams of the 20's and 30's- 6x 100+ rbi's
15) Jake Beckley - almost 3000 hits.

close but no cigar-
Hugh Duffy- Great stas, not a long enough career
Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
Cannonball Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
Joe Sewell - Just misses, needed a couple of more seasons.
Hack Wilson- a couple of great years do not make an all time great
Bill Mazeroski - Just didn't hit well enough.
Bill White- Great Fielder, steady stats. It would have been interesting if he had another 3 average (for him) seasons
Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.


</b><b>
   85. rawagman Posted: June 11, 2006 at 05:15 AM (#2059736)
rico
1) I assume Kiner is 5th, Sisler 6th, etc...Mendez 13th?
2) Duffy and Klien had an almost equal length career - 16 games difference. If you think about Duffy playing with a shorter schedule, his career was longer. Also, Duffy was a Triple Crown winner, too.
   86. rico vanian Posted: June 11, 2006 at 05:31 AM (#2059743)
Ach...I messed up on the numbering and the typo's...my sincere apologies...beginner's jitters.
   87. yest Posted: June 11, 2006 at 05:35 AM (#2059746)
4) Phil Rizzuto 3 years lost to WW2 would have put him over 200 hits and ended the debate.
in case you rycicle tour comments 2000 hits
Chuck Klein - 3 hr titles, triple crown.
4 1929 31-33
   88. DavidFoss Posted: June 11, 2006 at 06:38 AM (#2059761)
Chuck Klein - 3 hr titles, triple crown.
4 1929 31-33


I suppose the triple crown contained the 4th hr title. ;-) Could have been phrased better I suppose.

Welcome to the board Rico!
   89. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2006 at 11:27 AM (#2059770)
John, I stand corrected and wish to withdraw my endorsement of DL from MN's flawed argument. :-) I would take Koufax over Clemente and Clemente over any RP.

That's what I figured, Dan, since I believe you were the most enthusiastic supporter of Sandy here among the electorate. :-)

Rico:

Looks good now! I'll add it to the tally now.

Welcome!
   90. ronw Posted: June 11, 2006 at 03:40 PM (#2059808)
Welcome, rico!

Don't take any comments personally. Except from Murphy. He knows where you live. In fact, I'm pretty sure he's listening to your phone conversations right now. Say hi.
   91. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2006 at 04:18 PM (#2059821)
Don't take any comments personally. Except from Murphy. He knows where you live. In fact, I'm pretty sure he's listening to your phone conversations right now. Say hi.

lol
   92. Sean Gilman Posted: June 11, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2060387)
1978

1. Roberto Clemente (-)--Best combination of peak and career on the ballot.

2. Hoyt Wilhelm (-)--After reading 100s of posts from the last two weeks on Wilhelm and relievers in general, I’ve come to the conclusion that while Wilhelm is undoubtedly one of the greatest relievers of all-time, I have no idea how that relates to the other players eligible for this year’s election. We can’t come to a consensus on how to compare relievers from the 60s to relievers from the 90s, or relievers in general to pitchers in general or pitchers in general to hitters in general, so how can I hope to compare Hoyt Wilhelm to Pete Browning? I’ve decided to make my best guess and recognize that stats can’t do everything, yet.

3. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. Keep hope alive! (1927)

4. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

6. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

7. Minnie Minoso (16)--Comparison with Clemente shows I’d been underrating his nice balance of career and peak in favor of more one-sided candidates.

8. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

9. George Sisler (7)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

10. Edd Roush (15)--Another beneficiary of the Clemente Comparison.

11. Ken Boyer (13)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. But the nature of the project requires us to exaggerate the very small differences between them all and put them in some kind of rank order. This isn’t nearly the exact science we sometimes like to think it is. Anyway, I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

12. Joe Sewell (14)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. (1976)

13. Hugh Duffy (8)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

14. George Van Haltren (9)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

15. Jose Mendez (10)--Koufax forced a reevaluation of short career/high peak players. Subsequently, Mendez, Walters, Berger and Redding moved up my ballot. (1972)

16. Carl Mays (12) (1968)
17. Alejandro Oms (17)
18. Ralph Kiner (18)
19. Nellie Fox (19)
20. Quincy Trouppe (20)
21. Bob Elliott (21)
22. Bucky Walters (22)
23. Wally Berger (23)
24. Dick Redding (24)
25. Ed Williamson (25)
26. Dobie Moore (26)
27. Billy Pierce (45)
28. Vern Stephens (27)
29. Roger Bresnahan (29)
30. Dave Bancroft (29)
   93. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: June 12, 2006 at 02:28 AM (#2060656)
1978 ballot:

1. Roberto Clemente: Good peak, great prime, great man. He sleeps with angels too soon.

2. George Sisler: Doomed or due? We just keep him hangin’ on. (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

3. Hoyt Wilhelm: A unique candidate with tremendous value. Best “failed starter” ever!

4. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. The more analysis there is, the better he looks, and he looked really good already. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

5. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

7. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

9. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

10. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

11. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

12. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

13. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)

14. Pete Browning: Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)

15. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)

Required comments:
Jose Mendez: Creeps ever closer to the ballot as the crowd thins out.
Dobie Moore: High quality, but short career hurts.
Hugh Duffy: Hugh made my PHOM in ’40, but the field’s much deeper now. Near the bottom of my top 30.
Jake Beckley: Very good for a long time. He went into my PHOM in ’26, but I’ve cooled off on him since.
   94. Patrick W Posted: June 12, 2006 at 02:45 AM (#2060675)
Clemente is no Banks, but he slots in at No. 1 just as nicely.

1. Roberto Clemente (n/a), Pitt. (N), RF (’55-’72) (1978) – Missed decline years may have kept him from Top 25% HOMer status, but no one’s gonna argue over his worthiness.
2. Ken Boyer (3), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding infielders further down the ballot.
3. Billy Pierce (4), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – With the pitchers this closely together, I’m stepping back from total value, and sorting them by pitching value for the ballot.
4. Alejandro Oms (5), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Drops a little because the resume is so heavily non-US.
5. Dutch Leonard (6), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
6. Dizzy Trout (7), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
7. George Van Haltren (10), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
8. Dom DiMaggio (11), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) (1978) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
9. Bill Mazeroski (n/a), Pitt. (N), 2B (’56-’72) – Another fielder quickly ignored by the electorate.
10. Bucky Walters (8), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value.
11. Phil Rizzuto (9), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) (1972) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.
12. Hoyt Wilhelm (n/a), N.Y. (N), Balt. – Chic. (A) RP (’52-’72) – I’m sure it’s a whole lotta disrespectin’ the bullpen, but when Dutch Leonard outshines you on peak, you’re not gonna start out top of the ballot.
13. Bob Johnson (12), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
14. Joe Sewell (13), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Might deserve the spot over Rizzuto, but not this year.
15. Ben Taylor (14), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.

George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Minnie Minoso – Drops off ballot due to the elect only 2, but 3 rookies are better phenomenon.
Jake Beckley – PHOM, but not good enough this year.
Hugh Duffy – This seems like we’re just pulling names out of the hat at random. 65 years later, still not better than Ryan or Van Haltren.
Dobie Moore – Well now you’re really scraping the bottom of the peak barrel. In no particular order, I have Moore below a host of peak players: Waddell, Cicotte, Dean, Klein, Nicholson, Kiner, Garver, …

One of the players from last year’s top ten actually made my top 15..
   95. Andrew M Posted: June 12, 2006 at 06:41 AM (#2060833)
1978 Ballot
Posting this ballot from Copenhagen, so please excuse the mostly cut and paste from the previous ballot. Nice city, incidentally—though not much baseball to be found.
1. (new) Roberto Clemente. Not much to add here. Long career, great player, can’t see him ranking any lower than #2 on the ballot.
2. (new) Hoyt Wilhelm. I’m not a huge fan of relief pitchers as a category, but a 3.47 DERA/146 ERA+ in 2250 innings strikes me as HoM-worthy.
3. (2) Edd Roush. One of the best players in the NL for a decade. There are some odd things about his career, but to me he balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than most of the guys who finished ahead of him on the last ballot.
4. (3) Dobie Moore. The new material presented on his thread confirms that he was a great player for at least 5 years. There’s a lot about his career we may never know, but with a few years' credit for his time playing in army, his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.
5. (4) Nellie Fox. Fox was durable, consistent, got on base a lot, and an was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. To me, that adds up to a player far more valuable than might be suggested by his 94 OPS+.
6. (5) George Sisler. Sisler was an outstanding player, both offensively and defensively between 1916-1922. The remainder of his career doesn’t add much value, but I give him more credit for playing than I would if he had simply retired.
7. (6) Larry Doyle. His defensive stats are just odd. If BP’s assessment is to be trusted, Doyle began as a terrible fielder and became a better than average fielder as his career was winding down. Also, it seems odd that he wouldn’t have been at least tried at some other position if he was really that poor. There’s no question about his offensive abilities, however. Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star.
8. (7) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Maybe the best eligible 2B, period. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher, but I like him better than I like the three 1890s OFs.
9. (9) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade, with perhaps one year (1955) when there was no one better.
10. (10) Rube Waddell. Rube deserves more respect regardless of how troubled he may have been. Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even factoring in concerns about unearned runs and innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.
11. (11) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t an much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.
12. (12) Geo. Van Haltren. Never an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.
13. (13) Ralph Kiner. 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.
14. (14) Minnie Minoso. He played in a tough league and NeL credit bumps up his career value. Like Sisler, we’ve elected several players he seems comparable to.
15. (15) Bucky Walters. Like fellow Red Edd Roush there are a few strange things about his career (in his case: a late start, a legendary defensive team, pitching through the war) that make him hard to evaluate. It’s hard to imagine you could be a much better player than he was in 1939, when he led the NL in wins, ERA, IP and had a 111 OPS+ in 131 plate appearances.

Next 5
16. Charlie Keller
17. Quincy Trouppe
18. George J. Burns
19. Phil Rizzuto
20. Vern Stephens

Required disclosures:
Dick Redding, Jose Mendez, Jake Beckley, Hugh Duffy. I like Redding the best of these guys and would like to find a place for him on the ballot. Mendez strikes me as a peak candidate whose peak isn’t quite enough, though I could be wrong. Duffy (who I have voted for in the past) is buried in the OF glut. And I’ve never seen the light on Beckley.
   96. rawagman Posted: June 12, 2006 at 11:52 AM (#2060874)
Lovely city, Copenhagen - was there around this time of year 4 years ago
   97. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 12, 2006 at 12:10 PM (#2060887)
Lovely city, Copenhagen - was there around this time of year 4 years ago

I always think of the movie "Hans Christian Anderson" with Danny Kaye when I think about Copenhagen. I assume it has changed a little from Anderson's time, right? ;-)
   98. Al Peterson Posted: June 12, 2006 at 01:10 PM (#2060938)
1978 ballot. Stud outfielder and the best reliever join the fray. They take up a couple spots on the ballot.

1. Roberto Clemente (-). Maybe not as good as some people want to remember but still easily 1st ballot. Current Pirates could use a couple players like him.

2. Dick Redding (2).
Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book.

3. Hoyt Wilhelm (-). If failed starters ended up like him that wouldn’t be so bad. Each year didn’t have high peak but adding up the career aspect is very nice indeed.

4. Bob Johnson (3). Let’s get the Win Shares issue out of the way first. The system don’t like him, that’s not the death blow for me. Therefore…

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 107.1 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

Comparison with Clemente

Clemente (14 yrs, age 24-37): 141 OPS+, 8003 AB + BB.
Johnson (13 yrs, age 27-39): 138 OPS+, 7995 AB + BB.

5. Rube Waddell (4). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

6. Edd Roush (5). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

7. Tommy Leach (6). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

8. Hugh Duffy (7). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s. The fact he played LF is not a huge minus since it was more important defensively in the earlier eras of the game.

9. Billy Pierce (8). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

10. Joe Sewell (9).
I’ve come around a little bit on the ironman. His work at SS was excellent, lacked a little in length but not enough to dismiss as a candidate as we delve into the backlog.

11. Dobie Moore (10). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

12. Cupid Childs (11). This is a nod to similarities to Sewell. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

13. Pete Browning (12). I think I had timelined him a bit in recent elections. Or else I’m to the point where as a pure hitter its hard to argue the man wasn’t something special.

14. Alejandro Oms (14). Sweet-swinging outfielder, probably have a harder time projecting him since he got to the States more rarely than some other foreign-born players.

15. Jimmy Ryan (15). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

16-20: Mullane, Minoso, Kiner, Mays, Mendez
21-25: Chance, Walters, Berger, Poles, Shocker
26-30: Keller, F Jones, Byrd, Welch, Easter
31-35: C Jones, Sisler, Boyer, Ben Taylor, Luque
36-40: Bresnahan, Beckley, Roy Thomas, Willis, Lundy
41-45: Doyle, Stephens, Trouppe, Grimes, Elliott
46-50: George Burns, McGraw, Bridges, Cicotte, Colavito

Top 10 Returnees: Sisler(#32), Mendez(#20), Minoso(#17), Kiner(#18), Beckley (#37). There is a reason they are part of the backlog – each has their good points and bad points. Sisler and Kiner are peak guys but George’s peak is kinda short and not extraordinarily high, Kiner has fielding issues. Mendez career was during the sketchy record-keeping stage of the Negro Leagues and other places he played. Minoso doesn’t garner enough from his early playing years. Beckley you really must love the long career argument which I’m lukewarm to.

New guys: Besides Hoyt and Roberto, Mazeroski has a HOF plaque based on defense but he is not going to the HOM based on his weak hitting. Wills had speed but you can’t steal ballot spots. Moe Drabowsky just passed away – RIP to the fun-loving reliever.
   99. Esteban Rivera Posted: June 12, 2006 at 01:40 PM (#2060965)
1978 Ballot:

1. Roberto Clemente – The Great One

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

5. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

6. Hoyt Wilhelm – The Ageless One

7. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

8. Jose Mendez – Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

9. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

10. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

11. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

13. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

14. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

15. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

16. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

17. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Drysdale makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

18. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

19. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

20. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.

Joe Sewell – Close to making my top 20. See Moore as better.
   100. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 12, 2006 at 02:18 PM (#2060991)
1978 Ballot

1. Jose Mendez: The Hall got him right. Dominant peak/prime candidate with hitting and infielding to boot.

2. Bucky Walters: Strong peak/prime pitching candidate with shoulder years too and good hitting.

3. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available; the Hall didn’t get him right because it didn’t consider Mexico or North Dakota, nor probably his minor/Carribean league play.

4. Charley Jones: Best available outfielder; dominant hitter; gets blacklist credit from me.

5. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with a pretty good amount of highly leveraged relief innings too.

6. Hugh Duffy: Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line. The HOF's got this one.

7. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF.

8. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me. Let's see, 19th C., blacklisted, yeah the HOF won't get him right ever.

9. Pete Browning: This is the olde tyme portion of my ballot. Browning was a great hitter and a pretty rotten fielder, but he’s still HOM material for me. Another easy miss for the HOF.

10. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime candidate. Ditto.

11. Cupid Childs: Love the peak/prime, don’t mind that there’s nothing else.

12. Tommy Leach: Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose.

13. Roberto Clemente: I think Clemente was wonderful, but he’s vastly overrated as a player---though perhaps underrated as a humanitarian. He’s not a no-brainer to me because so many of his positional peers were better hitters at this hitting-first position. Not that Clemente was a bad hitter, by any means, but he’s behind a ton of fabulous hitters starting with Ruth and Aaron and it’s just too much for a guy with low walk rates. He’s ahead of the Deweys and the Dawsons, and that’s good enough to get HOMed.

14. Elston Howard: He’s right behind Bresnahan and Mackey in my catcher rankings. I’m giving him MiL/NgL credit for 1954 only.

15. Burleigh Grimes: Early Wynn’s 1920s doppelganger. He’s not quite as good as Wynn, but close enough that he’s a HOMer.

16. Hoyt Wilhelm: I’m awaiting the darts…. Here’s where I’m at. Relievers as a rule are only likely to bubble up to the middle of the pitching pack, where resides DD, The Senator, Burly Wynn, Eurleigh Grimes, and others. I’m struggling myself to locate a good system that compares these RPs to the starters. Joe D’s system seems rather well thought out, so I’m leaning on it for information.

By Joe’s reckoning, Wilhelm’s clearly behind Pearce in every facet of value Joe has calculated. Joe lists Burleigh Grimes as being a smidge behind Hoyt Wilhelm in pennants added. And Grimes has more peak/prime value by PEACE and is 2ish wins behind in career value. BUT this is only for pitching. Wilhelm’s not much of a hitter, Grimes is a good one. By BP, in WARP1 land, Wilhelm’s batting is worth -60 RAR, Grimes -23. That’s about 3.5 wins or so. I know I shouldn’t mix apples and oranges but taking the conclusions of Joe’s system about their pitching value and taking a general view that Grimes’s hitting would probably give him enough of an advantage to move up over Wilhelm, I arrive at my ranking.

17. Vic Willis: Shortish career years wise, but a ton of innings. Strange mix of factors including alternately great/porous defense and run support complicate things, but he’s an end-of-the-line HOMer for me.

18. Alejandro Oms: Borderliner’s borderliner. Moved southward after Chris Cobb’s trenchant evaluation of him. Thanks Chris.

19. Ned Williamson: He’s very nearly a HOMer, I mean really close, razor-thin line.

20. George Van Haltren: I remember when I was his bestest (though not onliest) friend. Some friendships fade away, some blow up, this one’s just sort of cooled. I’m still his friend, just not as friendly as he’d like.

21. George Sisler

22. Edd Roush

23. Arlie Latham

24. Dobie Moore

25. Newcombe



Old dudes

Minnie Minoso: Within my top 50.


Ralph Kiner: I’m not a huge fan. Like Minoso he’s around my top 50. I actually see them as virtually equally good candidates. Notice I didn’t say equally good players or similar players. Just candidates. They both have a similar number of plusses and minuses, and as far as their type of player is concerned, they do just about as well as you can without getting my out and out endorsement for HOM election. Either is a “tolerable error” in my judgment, but neither is someone I’ll vote for happily.

Dick Redding has slipped downward. His 1920s numbers were just awful, and I can’t really justify his placement among the big names. I don’t know where he’s landed yet, but he’s going down.

Joe Sewell isn’t far away from the top 25, but Jake Beckley is.
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