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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, June 19, 2006

1979 Ballot

Top new candidates: Willie Mays, Frank Howard, Luis Aparicio, Johnny Callison, Felipe Alou, and Milt Pappas.

Top-ten returnees: George Sisler, Ralph Kiner, José Méndez, Minnie Minoso , Joe Sewell, Jake Beckley, Hugh Duffy, and Cannonball Dick Redding.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 19, 2006 at 12:17 PM | 157 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 23, 2006 at 06:49 PM (#2073483)
Test---post 100 flipscreen protocol 2259.55.2-x
   102. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 23, 2006 at 06:51 PM (#2073487)
we'll have to endure those strange looks from our spouses, along with the muttered asides, "You're such a dork."

I usually have to endure eye rolling, followed by half-hourly groans of "But you said you were coming to bed a half hour a ago...."
   103. mulder & scully Posted: June 23, 2006 at 07:11 PM (#2073507)
Formerly Kelly in SD.

1979 Prelim:

1. Willie Mays: Yes
2. Mickey Welch: The weight of the evidence.
3. Charley Jones: The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1979, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
4. Pete Browning: Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not.
5. Charlie Keller: MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.75 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979.
6. Hugh Duffy: A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not.
7. Quincy Troupe: A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 1979.
8. Jose Mendez: From 1910 to 1914, only Johnson and Alexander were better. A gigantic peak.
9. Bucky Walters: Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white players.
10. Alejandro Ohms: Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1979.
11. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close. 11th all-time among second basemen.
12. Vic Willis: Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League.
13. Dobie Moore: Banks before Banks. I may have to move them closer on the final ballot. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1979 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers.
14. Tommy Leach: Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton.
15. Gavy Cravath: Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares.

16-20:
Chance: Best prime by a first baseman between Connor and Brouthers and Gehrig.
Howard, Frank: These four players are ranked as the best leftfielders in my system. There is no difference between them.
Burns: Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.
Kiner: Just a hair behind Burns for best LF on my board.
Minoso: Just a hair behind Howard, Burns and Minoso for best LF. I can't put all three on the ballot so none of them go.

21-25:
Redding: Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years.
Grimes: Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Cooper, Wilbur: He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is a 13 space gap between them.
Roush: PHOM for years.
Bresnahan: I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era.

26-30
Doyle: Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired.
Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.
Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder.
Rosen: What if...
Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense.

31-35
Sisler: His raw numbers are heavily park influenced. Too bad he couldn't walk. His peak is just not high enough, nor is his prime. First base and center field have the highest standards for me. He doesn't meet them.
Van Haltren: Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there.
Waddell: Does not have as many big years as the other great pitchers of his era.
Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.

36-40:
Schang: I wish he could go higher. I see the arguments.
Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
Fournier: Remember to give him credit for the White Sox screwing up.
Mays, Carl: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding.
Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw

41-45:
Scales: Pretty good player.
McGraw: Just not healthy enough.
Sewell: A good player, but just a little short.
Berger: Not enough prime years for me.
Clarkson: Another good player who was I discoverdd through this process.

46-50:
Elliott: I need to review his candidacy
Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
Jones, F: Excellent defender. Stats are hard to difficult to understand because fo the context:
Denny Lyons / Ed Williamson: Two excellent third basemen of a bygone era.

Others:
Beckley: 11th best available first baseman. Around 140th among all eligible players.
Callison: Slots in behind Beckley. Many outfielders had much bigger years in the sixties.
Aparicio: Lack of hitting prevents him from being on the ballot. Even in the sixties, it mattered what you hit. Definitely a member of the Hall of the Very Good.
   104. sunnyday2 Posted: June 23, 2006 at 08:28 PM (#2073605)
Or, "No wonder you aren't done with (fill in the blank)."
   105. Rob_Wood Posted: June 24, 2006 at 05:16 AM (#2074370)
1979 ballot:

1. Willie Mays - my first and most favorite player of all time
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career
3. George Van Haltren - star of the underrepresented 1890s
4. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
5. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
6. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
7. Cupid Childs - very good second baseman during the 1890s
8. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
9. George Sisler - half a super career is enuf for me
10. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop, could be higher
11. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Luis Aparicio - my luv of long careers is showing
13. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
14. Joe Sewell - best shortstop of his time
15. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
-----
16-20. Pie Traynor, Chuck Klein, Minnie Minoso, Jose Mendez & Tommy Leach

Not voting for: Dick Redding (very good pitcher I have just off ballot)
and Hugh Duffy (not anywhere near the ballot).
   106. Dr. Vaux Posted: June 24, 2006 at 11:00 AM (#2074412)
Sorry everybody... I had a bit of commentary in the discussion thread, but I'll go into more detail a bit later on why I didn't vote for certain candidates, if you like. Next time I'll repeat the commentary over here, too.
   107. sunnyday2 Posted: June 24, 2006 at 12:54 PM (#2074418)
When a voter here cites a number--CWS, OPS+, whatever--as a reason to support a given player, I think you can assume that the subtleties of the number are understood, and that the voter is not just dumbly ranking players on the basis of the raw number alone.
   108. TomH Posted: June 24, 2006 at 01:03 PM (#2074420)
Gotcha, vaux. I think many of us knew you actually had the detail, since you had discussed it earlier, so nobody was in much of a fuss over the naked ballot.
   109. favre Posted: June 24, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#2074855)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Willie Mays
2. Charley Jones
3. Rube Waddell

From 1876-1880 Charley Jones posted OPS+ seasons of 183, 169, 158, 156, and 154. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2. I had basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part. Take a look at him again if it’s been a while.

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Didn’t pitch a lot of innings compared to his contemporaries but, as dolflucky (used to) say, the man was dominant.

4. George Sisler
5. Jake Beckley

At the moment, the Hall has no one at 1B from 1897 until 1923, when Jud Wilson played a couple of seasons at first. From 1917-1922 Sisler averaged an OPS+ of 161 with forty stolen bases per season. That keeps him ahead of Beckley, whose thirteen seasons with an OPS+ 122 or higher continue to impress me.

6. Dobie Moore
7. Bob Elliott
8. Ken Boyer

I’ve dropped Moore some as Chris’ new numbers have sunk in, but I still think he’s the best shortstop on the ballot, and has been for a while (1977 notwithstanding). He is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see how you could put Sewell ahead.

Elliott and Boyer are fairly similar players. Elliott was a better hitter and had a little longer prime, which gives him the edge over Boyer’s defense. We currently have only four infielders from the 1950s (Robinson, Resse, Mathews, and Banks), so Boyer would help fill a gap there as well.

9. Billy Pierce
10. Ralph Kiner
11. Orestes Minoso

We are very short on pitchers from 1941-55. Pierce is the best pitcher left from the 1950s, with five seasons posting an ERA+ over 130: 201, 148, 141, 136, 133, and a sixth season at 124. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams with excellent defenses.

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two. By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is only one year shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher, with OPS+ seasons of 184, 184, and 173.

12. Vic Willis
13. Nellie Fox
14. Roger Bresnahan
15. Bucky Walters

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

I’ve already mentioned that we only have three infielders from the 1950s. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

We also have no one at catcher from 1891-1910. Bresnahan would not only help fill that gap, but also (a possible) one at CF from 1901-5, depending on what position you assign Pete Hill. Again, we are very short on pitchers from the WWII era. Walters’ great peak in ’39-40 sneaks him onto the ballot.

16-20: Gavvy Cravath, Jose Mendez, Wally Schang, Cupid Childs, Frank Howard

Jose Mendez: It kills me to drop him from the ballot, where’s he had settled for many years. But other pitchers looked better in my re-evaluation, and I have to respect that.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more. The fact that the HoF committee did not pick him doesn’t encourage me to move him up.

Hugh Duffy: Only one big year, and I question his WS A+ fielding grade. There is also no dearth of centerfielders in the Hall of Merit.

Joe Sewell: See Moore comment. Sewell does not stack up well with other SS in the HoM.
   110. dan b Posted: June 25, 2006 at 02:17 AM (#2074892)
PHoM class of 1979 – Mays, Ruffing


1. Mays
2. Duffy PHoM 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons
3. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
4. Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. Closest thing on ballot to Koufax.
5. Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
6. Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
7. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
8. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks puts Diz on my ballot for the first time.
9. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Dropping a few spots in 1975 – too many corner OF near top of my ballot.
10. Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
· 3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
· 5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
· 8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
· WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
· OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
· NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
· HoM Support – Roush slowly coming around? Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! That’s a shame.
11. Minoso PHoM 1972.
12. Sisler PHoM 1978. 1975 reevaluation puts him on ballot for first time in 30 years.
13. Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
14. Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
15. Cooper, W. Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942.
16. Ruffing
17. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
18. F. Howard
19. Fox
20. Wilhelm
21. Ashburn
22. C. Mays
23. Chance
24. Burns
25. Oms
26. Arlett
27. Berger
28. Doyle
29. Doerr
30. Willis
   111. Dr. Vaux Posted: June 25, 2006 at 02:26 AM (#2074895)
Some observations about recurring candidates I didn't rank:

José Méndez: I don't really know what to make of his stats against major-leaguers. 204 innings is a somewhat significant sample, though over five years. The K rate he posted is outstanding compared to the ML averages of the time, but his ERA is somewhere between average and below, depending on how much of it was before 1910. There's no guarantee he was really a dominant pitcher rather than just someone who the MLers hadn't seen before.

Joe Sewell: For me, a short career needs a very high peak, and a career of consistent very good performance needs to be long. Sewell wasn't good enough and didn't last long enough for the HOM, but his apparently fine defense and ability to get on base that he maintained till the end of his career earn him a position in the 'Hall of the Very Good.'

Dick Redding: The idea that his career value is similar to Rick Reuschel's is interesting, because I'm not sure where I'll stand on Reuschel himself. I think he's a borderline electee (I can't be sure, since we don't know how much of the current backlog will be in by that time) for me, though, so Redding is in the twenties or so for me among current canidates.

Billy Pierce I talked about a little in the other thread.

Ken Boyer: Not quite enough peak for his career-length unless defense was more quantifiable. He's another example of a 'very good' player for me.

Cupid Childs: I know it was the 19th century, but his career was a trifle too short for my taste, and his peak is terrific but too-briefly outrageously so.

Nellie Fox: There's really no peak here, and his time as a useful regular was too short. The HOM isn't a place for players whose un- or semi-quanifiable traits are a big part of their resumes.

Dobie Moore: His career just isn't long enough; it's too bad.

Edd Roush: A strange career progression, when you look at his independent ratios. He seems to have lost his plate-discipline more quickly than his ability to get hits. His career was long, but he's behind Sam Rice among outfielders according to my overall taste. He might make it onto my ballot someday.

Pete Browning: The peak is really something, but the career length isn't there.


***

My voting tendencies can probably be fairly well gleaned from my comments about players; I favor sustained excellence over short spurts of greatness, but if the spurt is great enough, it can suffice. Career value is the key, regardless (to some degree) how it's achieved (Obviously, if a player played for thirty years as Neifi Perez, his career value might be higher than, say, Andre Dawson's, but he'd still be a far worse player. If Pedro Martinez retired tomorrow, he'd certainly be an HOMer, but Mike Morgan could have pitched another ten years and he'd still never come close.).

But I don't think that a sheer ranking of Win Shares or WARP is generally necessary, because small differences between players mean the same thing as the difference between happening to have pitched at Wrigley when the wind was blowing in or out, or getting jammed far enough down on the bat to have a few bloops drop in, just over a longer time-frame. Does it mean anything to try and decide whether Wade Boggs or George Brett was more valuable when they're so different and they're both obviously great? Those things, in my opinion, are useful either for team-building as a GM, or being able to tell if I'm way off-base about a player (Carney Lansford's that bad?). Of course, ranking players based on those things is a perfectly legitimate thing to do in any context, but players who are close together on such lists are either both HOMers or both not HOMers.

I hope that's not taken as an anti-stat rant; I have long relied almost exclusively on era- and league-adjusted rate stats. Another reason I don't like Win Shares a lot for this purpose is that they penalize players for nagging injuries, when I in contrast think that a long career maintained despite such injuries is to some degree particularly laudable.
   112. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 25, 2006 at 12:41 PM (#2075038)
Cupid Childs: I know it was the 19th century, but his career was a trifle too short for my taste, and his peak is terrific but too-briefly outrageously so.

But most careers were short back then, Vaux. Yes, there were outliers like Anson and O'Rourke, but they were few and far between because of the rough-and-tumble nature of baseball during that era (especially during the 1890's), as well as the primitive training and conditioning players received. Bid McPhee's 19 seasons at second stands out like a sore thumb for that position because of his amazing durability. Today, it would be impressive, but not as much of a big deal as it was during the 19th century.
   113. sunnyday2 Posted: June 25, 2006 at 01:17 PM (#2075042)
Among the many many other advantages ;-) I've always been a peak/prime voter because it gives one a better way to compare the 19C guys to all of those who came later and had the advantages that John mentions.
   114. Al Peterson Posted: June 25, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#2075182)
1979 ballot. Who to put first – I’m at a loss…

1. Willie Mays (-). Hit a little, fielded a little, just squeaks by the others.

2. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book.

3. Bob Johnson (4). Let’s get the Win Shares issue out of the way first. The system don’t like him, that’s not the death blow for me. Therefore…

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 107.1 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

4. Rube Waddell (5). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

5. Tommy Leach (7). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

6. Hugh Duffy (8). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s. The fact he played LF is not a huge minus since it was more important defensively in the earlier eras of the game.

7. Edd Roush (6). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

8. Billy Pierce (9). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

9. Cupid Childs (12). This is a nod to similarities to Sewell. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

10. Dobie Moore (11). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

11. Joe Sewell (10). I’ve come around a little bit on the ironman. His work at SS was excellent, lacked a little in length but not enough to dismiss as a candidate as we delve into the backlog.

12. Pete Browning (13). I think I had timelined him a bit in recent elections. Or else I’m to the point where as a pure hitter its hard to argue the man wasn’t something special.

13. Alejandro Oms (14). Sweet-swinging outfielder, probably have a harder time projecting him since he got to the States more rarely than some other foreign-born players.

14. Jimmy Ryan (15). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

15. Minnie Minoso (17). Case arguments are similar to Bob Johnson: Never the best, always among the best. Not much added during the NeL portion of his career.

16-20: Mullane, Kiner, Mendez, Walters, Chance
21-25: C Mays, Poles, Shocker, F. Jones, W Berger
26-30: Byrd, Welch, F Howard, Easter, Keller
31-35: Boyer, C Jones, Luque, Beckley, Ben Taylor
36-40: Sisler, G Burns, Willis, Lundy, Grimes
41-45: R Thomas, Doyle, Elliott, Bridges, Bresnahan
46-50: Trouppe, Joss, Cicotte, Stephens, Bancroft

Top 10 Returnees: Sisler(#36), Mendez(#18), Kiner(#17), Beckley (#34), Boyer (#31). There is a reason they are part of the backlog – each has their good points and bad points. Sisler and Kiner are peak guys but George’s peak is kinda short, Kiner has fielding issues. Mendez career was during the sketchy record-keeping stage of the Negro Leagues and other places he played. Beckley you really must love the long career argument which I’m lukewarm to. Boyer, well my ranking might be a little cool on 3bmen in general.

New guys: Frank Howard, swell guy, falls into the middle of the big hitters and is at #28 to start with. Dominance period was a little short, defense was an issue. Aparacio had the defense and speed, lacked the stick. Hall of Fame can have him, nice career and all but not Hall of Merit.
   115. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: June 25, 2006 at 07:57 PM (#2075440)
Guess who my favorite player is! :-)
I better not have to recuse myself… ;-)

1979 ballot:

1. Willie Mays: Yep, this is him, and I can’t do him justice. Simply a joy to watch, when I could. I was in the east and for most of his career he was in the west, and there wasn’t the coverage we have now. Best player of my lifetime, one of the greatest ever.

2. George Sisler: Doomed or due? We just keep him hangin’ on. (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

3. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. The more analysis there is, the better he looks, and he looked really good already. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

4. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

5. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

6. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

7. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

8. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

9. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

10. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

11. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)

12. Pete Browning: Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)

13. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

14. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)

15. Ken Boyer: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)

Required comments:
Jose Mendez: Creeps ever closer to the ballot as the crowd thins out.
Hugh Duffy: Hugh made my PHOM in ’40, but the field’s much deeper now. Near the bottom of my top 30.
Jake Beckley: Very good for a long time. He went into my PHOM in ’26, but I’ve cooled off on him since.

New guys:
Looey: There’s 4 or 5 SS I like better, and only one (Sewell) is on my ballot. He’s well down.
Hondo: Short peak/prime, not a long full-time career. A big bat but nothing else.
   116. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:48 AM (#2076166)
1979 Hall of Merit Ballot

1. Willie Mays - Basically in a flat-footed tie with Cobb, Mantle, Speaker and Charleston as the greatest CF of all-time.
2. Charlie Keller - Showed that, at the age of 20, he was able to walk from his college graduation straight to the high minors and dominate. With minor-league credit and war credit, he was an MVP-level player for a decade. No one else on the ballot, other than Mays, can make that claim.
3. Dick Redding - I'm constructing my own short-form Win Shares-based evaluations for pitchers with the ERA translations that I use. Good peak plus (previously unrecognized by me) war credit puts him right behind Rube Foster in the all-time rankings. Could someone point me toward the new numbers for him?
4. Jose Mendez - Phenomenal stretch from 1910-1914; my projections have him winning 23 games per season.
5. Dobie Moore - New MLE Win Shares from Chris Cobb hurt him slightly, but I'm eager to see the California Winter League data worked into projections somehow.

6. Quincy Trouppe - Mackey's election has made me think about something: how much is defensive reputation overrated in how casual fans perceive a catcher's value? It makes sense that it is, considering how the catcher is at the center of attention in the field (along with the pitcher). But most of a position player's overall value is with the bat.
7. Rube Waddell - With guys like Mendez, Mays and Bridges, he is part of a family of pitchers on the HOM borderline. The difference in my system between pitchers like Mendez and Waddell in comparison to Mays and Bridges is about 30-40 points of adjusted ERA (the actual number, not the percentage) and support-neutral winning percentage.
8. Nellie Fox - In a tightly-grouped ballot such as this, I tend to favor the "up-the-middle" guys.
9. Minnie Minoso - See Alejandro Oms comment.
10. Alejandro Oms - Minoso and Oms might be the most tightly-matched pair of players on this ballot. Both had a broad base of skills which helped their teams. Both didn't really have any standout, MVP-type seasons, but played at an All-Star level for about eight seasons. Both were black Cubans. Minoso gets the edge because his shoulder seasons were better.

11. Tommy Leach - Similar in value pattern and skill set to the two players above him, trading some offense for defense.
12. Edd Roush - Two MVP-level seasons (1919, 1920) and three more that would have been at that level if he didn't miss quite as much playing time (1917, 1918, 1923).
13. Burleigh Grimes - Three great seasons (1920, 1921, 1928) anchor a long career. Hitting ability a plus.
14. Dizzy Dean - Gets nailed on a shift to a Win Shares-based evaluation system. Five-season peak is very similar to Jose Mendez, though a tiny bit worse. Slightly better shoulder seasons and more "hang-around value" is the difference between fourth and fourteenth on a tight ballot.
15. Vern Stephens - Played a decent shortstop and raked.

Top Ten Returnees Off Ballot
George Sisler - His 1920 season was great, but some durability issues in other peak/prime seasons keep him from rating higher. In integrated all-time rankings (MLB and NeL), he barely ranks among the top 35 at first base. Albert Pujols has already had four seasons that equal or far surpass Sisler's best and he'd probably fall on the wrong side of the HOM borderline if a truck driven by a deranged Cubs fan ran him over tomorrow.
Ralph Kiner - 1949 and 1951 were monster seasons with the bat. 1947 and 1948 were MVP-level, too. But those four seasons are all there really is to recommend him. Using OPS+ to argue that he and Keller are inseparable is misleading. More of Keller's OPS+ value is in the OBP portion. Furthermore, Keller's OBP is driven more by his batting average. These two advantages are small but very important.
Joe Sewell - Solid player who had a few All-Star level seasons, but stands out in comparison to his contemporaries only because of a drought in top-line talent at shortstop in the white majors. Lloyd, Wells, Moore and Lundy were all better than him. Appling and Cronin came into the league just as Sewell was finishing up his career at the hot corner for the Yankees. He rates in a virtual tie with Bancroft, far, far off my ballot.
Jake Beckley - He hung around forever. So did Jason in the "Friday the 13th" movies.
Hugh Duffy - Nice little player who lingers just off my ballot.
Billy Pierce - Eight seasons provide the meat for his HOM case (1950-53, 55-58). I have him as consistently very good in those seasons with four, maybe five All-Star seasons. He's not on my ballot, but I'm agnostic about his candidacy.
Ken Boyer - A couple of hairs behind Leach across the board, so he's in a cluster of about five to seven guys who are just off of my ballot.
   117. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:55 AM (#2076168)
It will be interesting over the next couple of elections as I incorporate WARP into my rankings. Boyer and Sewell rate very well in my system, but given my previous evaluation of their candidacies, I can't imagine putting them above the bottom third of my ballot.

It will be especially interesting with the bumper crop of borderline HOMers coming up in 1980!
   118. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 26, 2006 at 10:09 AM (#2076177)
Very retooled this week . . . a bunch of forgotten pitchers added.

1. Willie Mays CF (n/e) - Nothing to add, one of the all-time greats.
2. Jake Beckley 1B (2) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.
3. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.
4. Luke Easter 1B (4) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.
5. Jack Quinn SP (--) - Whoops. Completely missed him for all of these years. I was unaware that he pitched very well in the PCL from 1916-18, after he couldn't get back into the majors following the demise of the Federal League. He's got almost 800 relief innings, at an estimated leverage index of 1.26. Not much of a peak, just a very good pitcher for about 2 decades.
6. Billy Pierce SP (5) - What's not to like. He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. I could see Mike Mussina ending up like Pierce historically. He's first among the eligibles in RSAR (using DERA and Translated IP). And that's using a fairly high replacement level, of .404 WPct.
7. Juan Marichal SP (n/e) - Not as good as I would have guessed. Great peak. But he basically has the 6 great years, and was a little better than league average over the rest of his career. I don't think he was as valuable as Drysdale, Bunning, Quinn or Pierce.
8. Ralph Kiner LF (6) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? He should be. All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.
9. Charley Jones LF (7) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?
10. George Van Haltren CF (15) - He could rank anywhere from 2 to 20, very tough to evaluate. Placing him in the middle :-)
11. Elston Howard C (9) - I wouldn't have expected him to be this high. One of the things I love about working on this is that you get to take a look at a guy like Howard and realize he was a much better player than you ever realized. Schang, Dickey, Berra, Howard, Munson, Posada. Everyone talks about CF in Yankee Stadium, but behind the plate has a pretty solid history there too.
12. Tommy Bridges SP (10) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.
13. Nellie Fox 2B (11) - Very good peak. Great defense. Relatively long career at a key defensive position. I'm a big fan of this kind of player.
14. Dave Bancroft SS (13) - Inexplicably dropped off my consideration set. Upon further review, very similar to Rizzuto and Fox. I like him better than Sewell career wise. While Sewell had the better peak, Bancroft's is nothing to sneeze at, 4 WARP1's 9.4+, with a high of 11.5 in 1921, as the Giants won it all.
15. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (14) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.
   119. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 26, 2006 at 10:13 AM (#2076178)
Honorable Mention:

16. Joe Sewell SS/3B (16) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. However, after comparing him to Bancroft and Rizzuto, I realize I've been underrating him. Major jump this week.
17. Minnie Minoso LF (17) - Still not sure what to make of his extra credit. I can't see him being lower than this. Career track somewhat similar to Will Clark. Great player from the start of his career, very good player for the rest, and career ends rather early. Those guys tend to be underrated.
18. Wally Schang C (18) - Looking over WARP for catchers with Howard coming on the ballot, he's way ahead of everyone else that's eligible. I didn't realize that. I wonder if one of the recalcs bumped him.
19. Cupid Childs 2B (41) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.
20. Burleigh Grimes SP (12) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.
21. Phil Rizzuto SS (19) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP, great defensive SS and hurt by his park enormously. After a deeper look that included comparing Rizzuto to other shortstops with their age 25-27 seasons missing, I think Bancroft and Sewell deserve to rank ahead of the Scooter.
22. Virgil Trucks SP (25) - I urge everyone to take a closer look at him. We've got a hidden gem here, I didn't even notice it until I threw his numbers in my spreadsheet. I give him two full years of war credit for 1944-45, at an average of his 1942-43-46 level (after adjusting 1943 down a smidge for the war). He had some peak (I have him equivalent to Pierce and Plank on my 'peak' score, would have won the 1953 AL Cy Young if it existed) and there's a lot of career value here once you give him a couple of 15-11 years for the war. That would be enough to at least get him looked at by everyone. But the two missing years put him only in the 170s in wins, instead of the 200s, so he slips off the radar completely. Take a look at him - Bill James ranked him as the #61 pitcher of all time.
23. Dobie Moore SS (20) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit. Mike Webber's list that showed the age 21-24 record of players with similar performance from age 25-31 as Moore doesn't convince me that he should get a lot of credit for those years, but I do think he should get credit for about 50 or so WS for those years.
24. Ken Boyer 3B (21) - Very good player. I like him better than Elliott, better peak, a little more career. Elliott was a better hitter, but Boyer was a great fielder.
25. Vern Stephens SS (22) - I love shortstops that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Better than Doerr IMO.
26. Urban Shocker SP (31) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
27. Bob Johnson LF (26) - After looking at Colavito, I finally realized I had him too low. One powerful hitter. I really don't see how Sisler could be ranked ahead of Indian Bob.
28. Bucky Walters SP (24) - According to RSI he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter (for a pitcher) too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Throw in a MOWP of .526.
29. Bill Monroe 2B (27) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
30. Ernie Lombardi C (28) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
31. Ben Taylor 1B (32) - Poor man's Beckley.
32. Jimmy Ryan OF (33) - Could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
33. Charlie Keller LF (34) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long. Still I think I underrated just how good he was. Moving up this week. I think there's a very strong case he's better than Sisler. I'll be really disappointed if we induct Sisler any time soon.
34. Dick Redding SP (42) - I see him just a little ahead of Leonard - long career, not convinced it was spectacular.
35. Dutch Leonard SP (23) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set. Wasn't able to get to him in my recalibrated system this week, so I'm leaving him unchanged. Could go up or down next week.
36. Dick Bartell SS (35) - Win Shares doesn't love him, but WARP does. More than Bancroft actually. Longer career than Bancroft, and WARP sees him as better defensively, even in WARP1, before the all-time adjustments. This is a conservative ranking as he re-enters the consideration set. I could be moving him higher.
37. Larry Doyle 2B (77) - Another good pre-Ruth 2B, but he wasn't very good defensively, and the position wasn't even difficult at the time. I see him as similar as a hitter to Bob Elliott through 1950. I now realize 2B didn't hit quite as well as I thought during his career (league average OWP .492).
38. George Sisler 1B (38) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
39. Dolf Luque SP (74) - Good hitter, long career, and a very nice peak from 1923-25.
40. Bob Elliott 3B (39) - Much further behind Hack than I realized - 3B hit much better (.516 OWP) than in Hack's (.472 OWP). I can now see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott.
41. Bobo Newsom SP (63) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
42. Don Newcombe SP (29) - Now that I've quantified his extra credit, almost 5 seasons worth, I'm comfortable moving him ahead of Shocker and just behind Trucks. His hitting really makes a difference. He's closer to going higher than lower too.
43. Dizzy Trout SP (30) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Best peak of any pitcher on the ballot this week. Haven't had a chance to run him through my new system yet.
44. Quincy Trouppe C (40) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
45. Pie Traynor 3B (53) - Back on the board. I think we are all seriously underrating 3B defense from the mid-30s back. Basically even with Larry Gardner, same player, different generation. 3B only had a .440 OWP during his career.
46. Jose Mendez SP (37) - Putting him back on the ballot after his recent election to the Hall of Fame caused me to reconsider his case. He was comparable to Luque.
47. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (43) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
48. Dom DiMaggio CF (44) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
49. Ed Williamson 3B (45) - Still on the board after nearly 80 years.
50. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (46) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
51. Waite Hoyt SP (--) - Forgot about him. Not a huge peak, but a long solid career.
52. Vic Willis SP (61) - I thought I should have him higher, finally found some justification for moving him up.
53. Walker Cooper C (47) - Great hitter for a catcher, just a smidge below Bresnahan and Schang.
54. Lave Cross 3B (48) - Also caught some. See Traynor for the reason he's back on the board. Enormous career value. Superb defender at important position(s).
55. Mike Griffin CF (49) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
56. Hugh Duffy OF (50) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan. I just don't see why some people like him so much. What makes him any better than Griffin? Griffin was on base more, and was a better fielder. Griffin had almost as much power. I just don't see it. If Duffy didn't have about 2 seasons on Griffin, he wouldn't be this close.
57. Edd Roush CF (51) - I'll take another look at him this week Mike Webber.
58. Ed Cicotte SP (60) - Should be on the ballot if Willis is. I don't see him as being a real candidate, but in the interest of thoroughness he should be listed. Very nice peak.
59. Rube Waddell SP (36) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped. Moving up significantly this week. I actually see him as between McGinnity and Brown (who I think we may have overrated, I was guilty too) at this point.
60. Babe Adams SP (--) - Up and down career, but he was up, he was very good. Could also hit a little.
61. John McGraw 3B (52) - One helluva player - when he could stay on the field. More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
62. Frank Howard LF (n/e) - I like him a little better than Colavito.
63. Larry Gardner 3B (54) - I see him as a tad behind Traynor, about equal to Childs after bumping for 3B D in his era.
64. Red Schoendienst 2B (55) - Good player, very nice peak from 1952-54. About equal as a hitter to someone like Concepcion or Campaneris, but they played SS, not 2B. Can't see any way to rank him ahead of someone like Larry Gardner, Billy Nash, Pie Traynor, Cupid Childs, etc.. So I bumped the others, since I don't think Schoendienst should be lower than this.
65. Buddy Myer 2B (56) - Sure could hit for a 2B. Had trouble staying in the lineup, but shouldn't have dropped off the board.
66. Wilbur Cooper Sp (--) - Nice run from 1916-24.
67. Rocky Colavito RF (57) - Not as good as Indian Bob, but a definite Hall of Very Gooder.
68. Billy Nash 3B (59) - Similar to Traynor, better glove, less pop.
69. Luis Aparicio SS (n/e) - Overrated by history, but a very good player. I could be convinced this is way too low.
70. Dick Groat SS (62) - Better than I would have thought. 2 years of military service help too. He basically had the same career length as Schoendienst. Wasn't quite as good of a hitter, but he was SS as opposed to being a 2B.
71. Rabbit Maranville SS (--) - Great defensive player, long career, lots of value.
72. Mel Harder SP (58) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
73. Dick Lundy SS (64) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
74. Bobby Avila 2B (65) - Gives him some credit for pre-major league play. Had a couple of really big years in the early 1950s.
75. Tommy Henrich RF (69) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good modern comp.
76. Alvin Dark SS (70) - Shortstops that can hit league average are a valuable commodity.
77. Alejandro Oms OF (71) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
78. Mickey Vernon 1B (73) - Good player, long valuable career, not nearly the hitter Beckley or Taylor were.
79. Pete Browning CF (75) - He's on the board again. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation. The bat was great, the D was awful and the career was short.
80. Gil Hodges 1B (76) - I don't see how he can be ranked above Vernon.
81. George Uhle SP (--) - Monster hitter for a pitcher. Decent pitcher too, it all adds up.
   120. sunnyday2 Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:24 AM (#2076184)
I emailed Joe to tell him that Juan Marichal is not eligible yet. Maybe he'll move Sisler up from #38?
   121. rawagman Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:49 AM (#2076190)
I will score Joe's ballot as having everyone moved up one notch - putting Sewell on at 15th
   122. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 26, 2006 at 12:03 PM (#2076193)
I will score Joe's ballot as having everyone moved up one notch - putting Sewell on at 15th

That's the way I will also handle it.

38 ballots tallied up to this point. Still missing ballots from: SWW, Mike Webber, Trevor P, David Foss, Chris Cobb, Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau, Michael Bass, Max pArkinson, jimd, and KJOK.

Since one part of the election wil be very close, no ballots will be allowed after 8 PM EST.
   123. Ken Fischer Posted: June 26, 2006 at 12:43 PM (#2076203)
1979 Ballot

Sorry I missed the ’78 Ballot. I had sinus surgery…not fun…but now I can breath. Too bad about the hard drive. I know the feeling...that's why I now try to back up data on a regular basis. I'm going to this week's SABR 36 in Seattle. It will be my first since 2002.

1-Willie Mays 642 WS
Another no brainer

2-Dick Redding
I’m still debating whether Mendez should go before Redding.

3-Jose Mendez

4-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Would’ve easily been over 300 if his Negro League years were in majors.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Only W. Mays & two 19th century pitchers have more win shares on the ballot.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS

7-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

8-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Gets no respect…a forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS

10-Ken Boyer 279 WS

11-Bob Johnson 287 WS

12-George Sisler 292 WS

13-Jake Beckley 318 WS

14-Tony Mullane 399 WS
He has the most WS for a non-HOMer…expect W. Mays. If Win Shares are my main guide he should be on the ballot.

15-Edd Roush 314 WS
His granddaughter has a book out about the 1919 Series. She gave a great presentation at a recent SABR chapter meeting in St. Petersburg.

16-Joe Sewell 277 WS
17- Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
18-Nellie Fox 304 WS
19-Pete Browning 225 WS
20-Gil Hodges 263 WS
21-Ralph Kiner 242 WS
22-Dick Lundy
23-Curt Flood 221 WS
24-Red Schoendienst 262 WS
25-Ray Dandridge
26-Dobie Moore
27-Sam Rice 327 WS
28-Cupid Childs 238 WS
29-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
30-Luis Aparico 293 WS

Sewell and Kiner are in my top 25 and could be moving up. Duffy is #46 on my depth chart with 295 WS. IMHO…there are several outfielders in front of him that had more career value.
   124. rawagman Posted: June 26, 2006 at 12:50 PM (#2076207)
31. Ben Taylor 1B (32) - Poor man's Beckley.


Taylor was a better hitter (translated OPS+) and fielder (by reputation, the greatest fielding NeL 1B ever). And his career was (apparently) longer.
   125. karlmagnus Posted: June 26, 2006 at 01:19 PM (#2076217)
Even I9, a sunny optimist on NEL translations, has Taylor at 8257AB compared with Beckley's 9526. You also have to be an optimist to make him a significantly better hitter. He's quite good; I have him about #20 on my ballot, but he's no Beckley
   126. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 26, 2006 at 01:28 PM (#2076222)
Sorry I missed the ’78 Ballot. I had sinus surgery…not fun…but now I can breath.

Glad you're back, Ken. As a fellow sinus sufferer, I can empathize with you. Fortunately, my breathing rarely is affected (my eyesight has been Sisler-affected, though).
   127. DavidFoss Posted: June 26, 2006 at 02:10 PM (#2076254)
1979 Ballot
1. Willie Mays (ne) -- Thirteen 30+ WS seasons before war credit and a few others in the upper twenties as well. Take out his best 8 seasons and he's still a HOM-er.
2. Larry Doyle (3) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
3. John McGraw (4) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
4. Cupid Childs (5) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
5. Dick Redding (6) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
6. Ralph Kiner (7) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
7. Gavvy Cravath (8) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
8. Charley Jones (9) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
9. George Sisler (10) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
10. Roger Bresnahan (11) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
11. Joe Sewell (12) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
12. Bob Elliott (13) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
13. Billy Pierce (14) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA.
14. Bob Johnson (15) -- The OF glut is percolating up onto my ballot. Indian Bob hit well with fine OBP's for poor Athletics teams.
15. Charlie Keller (ne) -- Tough guy to rank, but thought I'd toss him some love. A legitimate HOM peak, but issues with minor league credit before, war credit during, and his health later have kept him low. Its tough to pull the trigger on a borderline guy when so much of his value is speculative.
16-20. Rosen, Browning, Chance, Lombardi, Fox,
21-25. Beckley, Welch, Trouppe, DMoore, Minoso,
26-30. FHoward, Leach, Waddell, Roush, KBoyer,
31-33. Newcombe, TBridges, BWalters
   128. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 26, 2006 at 03:00 PM (#2076294)
Hey Ken, welcome back, hope you are feeling better.

As far as Marichal, yes, just move everyone up a notch, whoops!

Would it be better for all involved with counting if I fixed it on the thread and resubmitted? Or would that be more clutter? Just let me know either way.
   129. Esteban Rivera Posted: June 26, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#2076322)
1979 Ballot:

1. Willie Mays – I don’t run like Mays and I hit like…

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

5. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

6. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

7. Jose Mendez – Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

8. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

9. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

10. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

11. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

12. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

13. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

14. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

15. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

16. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Drysdale makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

17. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

18. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

19. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

20. Burleigh Grimes – Not as many great seasons as some other candidates but his career length has it over most of them.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.

Joe Sewell – Close to making my top 20. See Moore as better.
   130. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 26, 2006 at 03:36 PM (#2076325)
Would it be better for all involved with counting if I fixed it on the thread and resubmitted? Or would that be more clutter? Just let me know either way.

I think everybody did what rawagman suggested, Joe, so I don't think you need to resubmit it.
   131. SWW Posted: June 26, 2006 at 04:33 PM (#2076369)
I think it was 1979 when I saw my first professional baseball game. Maybe. Are the Corpus Christi Seagulls considered professional? No? Okay, it might be next year, then.

Abbreviated ballot this year, owing to a crazy fortnight. My apologies.

<u>1979 Ballot</u>
1. Willie Howard Mays, Jr. - "The Say Hey Kid"
When someone is a strong contender for "Greatest Player of All Time" status, I think you put them on top of the ballot.
2. Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Ideal combination of prime and career stats. Last year's new voter included him, which is a positive step.
3. George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Heavily slanted towards peak years, but a full career nonetheless.
4. Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive.
5. Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I have him at the head of a pack of very good second basemen, including recent inductees Doerr and Gordon.
6. Edd J Roush
Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
7. Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, but similar in that regard to Sisler.
8. Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. Suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
9. Kenton Lloyd Boyer
One of the best third basemen we've seen on the ballot. Not Eddie Mathews, but a strong performer.
10. Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Haven't looked at his newest numbers enough. I still have him clearly ahead of Mendez.
11. Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” Excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
12. Carl William Mays
The other Mays. A gentler career arc than that of Ferrell or Lemon, higher highs than Willis.
13. José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
Cooperstown likes him more than I do. José offers a prime that projects out to monstrous numbers.
14. Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Great career numbers, and consistently the best position player on a very bad team for a very long time.
15. Luis Ernesto Aparicio Montiel
My problem child. He seems to be acclaimed as one of the most overrated players in history, but my numbers still show him as the best available at his position. Until I can take more time to review his case, I need to trust my eyes, and they tell me he at least deserves a slot on the ballot.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Ralph McPherran Kiner
I have him lumped together with a batch of candidates whose significant primes are not currently enough for me to support their induction, like Klein, Berger, and Keller.
Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Still trying to figure out Sewell and Vern Stephens. They're very close.
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I tend towards career numbers, but Beckley’s are so without peak that I’m hard pressed to call him a great.
   132. Tiboreau Posted: June 26, 2006 at 04:41 PM (#2076376)
Just got called into work, so I won't be able to post comments until after the deadline. Hope this is acceptable 'til then. . . .

Willie Mays
Jose Mendez
Cupid Childs
Alejandro Oms
Bucky Walters
Hugh Duffy
Dobie Moore
Dizzy Dean
Gavy Cravath
Buzz Arlett
Rube Waddell
Larry Doyle
Roger Bresnahan
Billy Pierce
Ralph Kiner
   133. Chris Cobb Posted: June 26, 2006 at 05:49 PM (#2076459)
1979 Ballot

Aside from one of the best players all time at the top, there’s no obvious choice in this election: all the remaining players available have significant weaknesses as well as strengths, and the merit one sees in them is very strongly influenced by one’s metrics and measures of choice. I’m still in the process of integrating WARP1 into my system and reassessing positional balance in my system: I hope to be finished by next election, but for now my rankings are still very much in flux.

1. Willie Mays (n/e). Top 5 all time.
2. Rabbit Maranville (3). Why isn’t he on more ballots?? Deeper study of WARP and fielding brings Maranville towards an elect-me spot. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
3. Dick Redding (4). Slips behind Maranville among 1910s & early 20s stars. I’d happily elect him, but I see him as slightly less brilliant than the three above. Recently published data has raised questions about his career value. I haven’t had a chance to review the data, but I think it’s just as well that we will have a few years of shoo-ins coming up so that we can chew over that data before Redding reaches the cusp of election. Until I do a careful review, I am leaving Redding where I ranked him on the basis of a thorough study of the available data.
4. Jose Mendez (5). Pretty much holding steady with the best pitching peak among eligibles.
5. Gavvy Cravath (6). I hope the renewed discussion of Cravath will help revive his candidacy. Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding and weak competition hold him back. My study of top 7 consecutive seasons placed his peak below Keller, Kiner, and Sisler, but he has nearly three top seasons in the AA outside that peak.
6. Herman Long (7). Like Maranville, he tracks upward as I place more weight on infield defense.
7. Ralph Kiner (8). Great peak versus strong competition. A little more peak than Cravath, but quite a bit less prime.
8. Billy Pierce (9). Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is about to gain momentum. I _really_ hope that a thorough comparison of him to Marichal will help him!!
9. Dave Bancroft (10). Top beneficiary of my reexamination of WARP and fielding value. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
10. George Sisler. (11). I’ve changed my mind on him again. After another reassessment of first-base defense, I conclude that his peak is underrated because his above-average first-base defense prior to his illness is substantially underrated. With the best position-player peak available, he comes back onto my ballot.
11. Jake Beckley (12). Well, look who else benefits from my reassessment of first-base defense! No great years, but with his defense properly credited, he was steadily an above-average player for a very long time.
12. Tommy Leach. (13). Greater credit for fielding brings him back onto the ballot.
13. Nellie Fox (14). Holds steady. We need to elect some more infielders from the 1950s!
14. Bucky Walters (15). Favre’s period surveys help identify Walters as a player deserving of a little more support. I think that players who peaked during the war years have been getting a little less credit than they deserve, so I bring Walters onto my ballot for the first time.
15. Joe Sewell (16) Receives a vote from me for the first time. Very strong prime with very good defense at shortstop and very good offense gets him onto the board.

New arrivals to place: Luis Aparicio, Frank Howard

The next 15
16. Cupid Childs
17. Rube Waddell
18. Minnie Minoso
19. Charlie Keller
20. Charley Jones
21. Alejandro Oms
22. Frank Howard (n/e). I’m starting him out at the back of a pack of just-off-ballot outfielders. Win shares really likes him, but WARP doesn’t so much. Less well-rounded than anyone else in this group, but also the best pure power hitter. Peak is only slightly lower than Ralph Kiner’s or George Sisler’s, who are on the ballot.
23. Ben Taylor
24. Urban Shocker
25. Lave Cross
26. Burleigh Grimes
27. Edd Roush
28. Mickey Welch
29. Bob Elliott
30. Ken Boyer

Returning Consensus Top 10 not on my ballot:

Minnie Minoso: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. He’s just off my ballot at #18. I don’t oppose his election, but I think there are more deserving, overlooked infield candidates.

Hugh Duffy: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. I think Duffy is being seriously overvalued by the electorate. I can see giving Duffy some extra credit beyond his stats for his team’s outperforming their stats, but that should only go so far. He’s in the 40-50 range in my rankings.

Dobie Moore: an excellent peak, but not high enough or long enough to offset his lack of career value. I somewhat prefer several other contemporary shortstops. Moore is just outside my top 30.

Cupid Childs: Just off my ballot at #16. As with Minoso, I don’t oppose his election, but I’m not advocating for it right now.

Other new candidates of note:

Luis Aparicio. WARP and WS agree that his defense was very good but not tremendous, in a period when infield defense was declining in value, and his offense is weak. I won’t have an exact ranking for him until I finish overhauling my system, but at present it doesn’t look to me like he will be making the top 50. He certainly doesn’t deserve to rank ahead of his contemporary Ken Boyer, and Boyer is setting the lower bound of the top 30.
   134. Evan Posted: June 26, 2006 at 05:59 PM (#2076475)
76 players receiving votes so far... what's the record?
   135. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 26, 2006 at 06:06 PM (#2076484)
76 players receiving votes so far... what's the record?

I believe it's in the eighties, Evan.
   136. DanG Posted: June 26, 2006 at 07:34 PM (#2076598)
76 players receiving votes so far... what's the record?

I'm seeing 82 in 1968 and 1969.
   137. jimd Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:06 PM (#2076653)
76 players receiving votes so far...

And I haven't voted yet...

;-)
   138. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:08 PM (#2076655)
What's required if you want to join up and start voting?
   139. jimd Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:18 PM (#2076670)
Ballot for 1979

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and unsupported Peak doesn't get too far in my system.

1) W. MAYS -- !

2) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

3) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

4) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

5) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

6) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1917, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922; WARP adds 1916 and 1918.

7) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

8) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929.

9) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

11) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

12) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

13) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

14) E. HOWARD -- Very different from Mackey. Prime 1961-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

15) D. DEAN -- He's back onto this thin ballot. Prime 1932-36. Best player candidate 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star in 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

16) R. KINER -- If he was the best LF during those years, he'd be high on my ballot (because he'd have a higher peak). Prime 1947-54. Star seasons include 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951. HM in 1952, 1953, 1954.

17) D. REDDING -- Made my ballot earlier, but slips back off.

18) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

19) J. BECKLEY -- Not quite. Long low prime but never close to the best player in the league. Prime 1890-1904. Best 1b-man 1900. WARP adds 1894, 1901; WS adds 1893. HM in 1890, 1896, 1899, 1904.

20) B. PIERCE -- Marginal case hurt by being in the weaker league. Prime 1950-58. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1955. WS adds 1952, 1953, 1958. Other star seasons include 1951. HM in 1950, 1956, 1957.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Dizzy Trout, Joe Tinker,
23-24) Bill Hutchison, Hugh Duffy,
25-26) Nellie Fox, Rube Waddell,
27-28) Harry Hooper, Tommy Leach,
29-30) Mickey Welch, Edd Roush,
   140. rawagman Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:24 PM (#2076684)
B. Williams - put up a test ballot (comments included) in the ballot discussion thread. If it looks thoughtful and well-rounded enough, you will earn a vote
   141. Daryn Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:27 PM (#2076688)
What's required if you want to join up and start voting?

Well, first you have to recognize that that play ought to have been called an error. Next, post a ballot on the discussion thread with comments on all of those you vote for and comments on any of the previous top 10 whom you don't vote for. As long as Clay Bellinger does not appear on your ballot, you're in.
   142. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:31 PM (#2076696)
What's required if you want to join up and start voting?

As a possible new voter, you would first need to submit a preliminary ballot at the 1979 Ballot Discussion thread. If it's decided that it follows the proper format (15 candidates, comments for them and for any top-ten candidates from '78 who don't make your ballot, etc.), then you can submit it on the 1979 Ballot thread. We ask that you read the Constitution first before you submit one and that you are fair to all eras and players who may have been denied ML play beyond their control.

If you are submitting a ballot today, make sure to have it in no later than 8 PM EST. Later than that will disqualify it.

If you have any other questions, please let us know.
   143. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2076700)
As long as Clay Bellinger does not appear on your ballot, you're in.

Wid Conroy will also get you banned. ;-)
   144. DanG Posted: June 26, 2006 at 08:59 PM (#2076748)
Wid Conroy will also get you banned.

The third baseman on my 1908 draft APBA team, The Plague, many years back; quickly acquired the nickname "Dim".
   145. Mike Webber Posted: June 26, 2006 at 09:11 PM (#2076769)
In Portland today, Seattle tomorrow evening, for SABR convention.

1) WILLIE MAYS Shiny new toy effect?
2) EDD ROUSH – Congrats to Sisler if that is what happens, but Edd beats him (barely) on OPS+, played a tougher defensive position at a very high level, and has 22 more win shares in 900 less Plate Appearances.
3) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
4) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
5) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
6) MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner.
7) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
8) GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares. Even so, his career totals keep him ahead Duffy and the 19th century guys.
9) CARL MAYS – Strong peak, good career value.
10) ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger, Elston Howard, and Schang are ahead of Mackey on my list.
11) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
12) HUGH DUFFY – Good combination of career and peak value.
13) GEORGE SISLER – Enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.
14) KEN BOYER – His peak nudges him ahead of Traynor, 6th in games played at 3b when he retired – Mathews, Yost, Robinson, Traynor and Hack.
15) LARRY DOYLE - just ahead of Traynor for last spot on ballot.


Disclosures – Jose Mendez and Dick Redding – Hard to rank, and not clearly better than the pitching glut.

Dobie Moore – Looking at his value pattern closely I think it is a big stretch to assume that his career before 25 was likely to have cemented his candidacy. I believe Al Rosen is his best comp, and I see Rosen as no better than the fourth best third baseman on the ballot.

Joe Sewell – I think Chris Cobb is on target with this one, ranks behind Maranville and Long.

Jake Beckley – good candidate at a deep position, in my top 50.
   146. Max Parkinson Posted: June 26, 2006 at 09:11 PM (#2076770)
1979 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Mays and Bunning). The HoM/MP HoM gap should drop to 11 this year….

1. Willie Mays

Are we allowed to say no-brainer yet?

2. Dick Redding

One of the 3 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Redding, Mendez and Waddell), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

3. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

4. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly great peak pitcher.

5. George Sisler

George’s case was made in from ’17 to ‘22 – anything he did afterwards adds or subtracts little. How's about soon, if only for yest's sake...

6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Rube Waddell

Welcome back to the ballot. Love me those punches, Rube.

10. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

11. Joe Sewell
12. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

13. (N)Ed Williamson

Between him and Mugsy, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

14. Ben Taylor

He’d slide nicely in the 1B void.

15. Charlie Keller

16-20. Minoso, Burns, Veach, Pierce, Walters
21-25. Lazzeri, Bancroft, Duffy, Konetchy, B. Johnson
26-30. Trouppe, Cuyler, Childs, Youngs, Klein
31-35. Monroe, Tiernan, Kiner, Hooper, F. Jones
36-40. Traynor, Shocker, Boyer, Bradley, F. Howard
41-45. Roush, Cicotte, E. Howard, Leach, Chance
46-50. Nicholson, Griffin, Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang
51-55. Seymour, Nash, Dunlap, Rommel, Rucker
56-60. Beckley, Elliott, H. Wilson, Hodges, Fox

Previous Top 10s:
Duffy is 23.
Kiner is 33.
Beckley is 56.
   147. Patrick W Posted: June 26, 2006 at 09:39 PM (#2076820)
Third year in a row, delete No. 1, insert new No. 1.

1. Willie Mays (n/a), N.Y.-S.F. (N), CF (’51-’73) (1979) – Only 5 players to date have achieved top 10% of HOMer’s in every career and/or peak measure that I use: Williams, Mays, Charleston, and Musial. (Cobb just misses the 3-Yr Peak score, Ruth, Johnson and Young only needed 1 more replacement season apiece to make the list). Either #3 or 4 all-time (to-date), going back-and-forth with Oscar.
2. Ken Boyer (2), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding infielders further down the ballot.
3. Billy Pierce (3), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – With the pitchers this closely together, I’m stepping back from total value, and sorting them by pitching value for the ballot.
4. Alejandro Oms (4), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Drops a little because the resume is so heavily non-US.
5. Dutch Leonard (5), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
6. Dizzy Trout (6), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
7. George Van Haltren (7), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
8. Dom DiMaggio (8), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) (1978) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
9. Bucky Walters (10), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value.
--. Hoyt Wilhelm, N.Y. (N), Balt. – Chic. (A) RP (’52-’72) (1979)
10. Bob Johnson (13), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
11. Luis Aparicio (n/a), Chic. – Balt. (A), SS (’56-’73) – Luis causes a re-evaluation of the infielders. They are slotted correctly here amongst each other, but not yet among the pitchers and outfielders. All these guys could slot between spots 8-30 at the drop of a hat.
12. Joe Sewell (14), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939)
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
13. Phil Rizzuto (11), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) (1972)
14. Bill Mazeroski (9), Pitt. (N), 2B (’56-’72) –
15. Ben Taylor (15), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.

George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 25 votes and Chuck Klein with 3 before I explain why he is off-ballot.
Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Minnie Minoso – Drops off ballot due to the elect only 2, but 3 rookies are better phenomenon.
Jake Beckley – PHOM, but not good enough this year.
Hugh Duffy – This seems like we’re just pulling names out of the hat at random. 65 years later, still not better than Ryan or Van Haltren.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.

One of the players from last year’s top ten actually made my top 15.
   148. Andrew M Posted: June 26, 2006 at 09:59 PM (#2076853)
1979 Ballot

Just back from vacation and rushing to get this done. I haven’t been able to follow the discussions for this ballot as closely as I would like, but I feel pretty good about my number 1.

1. (new) Willie Mays. Unfortunately, my baseball watching began just as his career was ending. The difference on this ballot between 1 and 2 is a lot greater than the distance between 2 and 50.

2. (3) Edd Roush. One of the best players in the NL for a decade. There are some odd things about his career, but to me he balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other contenders for this spot.

3. (4) Dobie Moore. The material presented on his thread confirms that he was a great player for at least 5 years. There’s a lot about his career we may never know, but with a few years' credit for his time playing in army, his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

4. (5) Nellie Fox. I always associate Fox with Aparicio and realizing this week that Aparicio is nowhere near my ballot makes me wonder, irrationally perhaps, whether I am overrating Fox. Both men were durable, consistent, and excellent fielders at important defensive positions for more well more than 2000 games. Unlike Louie, Fox could get on base--his career OBP is .009 above the league average while Aparicio is .018 below.

5. (6) George Sisler. Sisler was an outstanding player, both offensively and defensively between 1916-1922. The remainder of his career doesn’t add much value, but he gets more credit for playing than had he retired.

6. (7) Larry Doyle. His defensive stats are peculiar. If BP’s assessment is to be trusted, Doyle began as a terrible fielder and became a better than average fielder as his career was winding down. Also, it seems odd that he wouldn’t have been at least tried at some other position if he was really that poor. There’s no question about his offensive abilities, however. Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star.

7. (8) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Maybe the best eligible 2B, period. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher, but I like him better than I like the three 1890s OFs.

8. (9) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade.

9. (10) Rube Waddell. Rube deserves more respect regardless of how troubled he may have been. Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even factoring in concerns about unearned runs and innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.

10. (11) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t an much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

11. (12) Geo. Van Haltren. Never an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

12. (13) Ralph Kiner. 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

13. (14) Minnie Minoso. He played in a tough league and NeL credit bumps up his career value. Like Sisler, we’ve elected several players he seems comparable to.

14. (15) Bucky Walters. Like fellow Red Edd Roush there are a few strange things about his career (in his case: a late start, a legendary defensive team, pitching through the war) that make him hard to evaluate. It’s hard to imagine you could be a much better player than he was in 1939, when he led the NL in wins, ERA, IP and had a 111 OPS+ in 131 plate appearances.

15. (new) Quincy Trouppe. Back on the ballot. Nice career length for a catcher with a good peak. Defense seems to have been well-regarded.

Next 5
16. Charlie Keller
17. George J. Burns
18. Phil Rizzuto
19. Vern Stephens
20. Alejandro Oms

Required disclosures:

Dick Redding, Jose Mendez, Jake Beckley, Hugh Duffy, Joe Sewell.
Redding is probably the next pitcher on my list. Mendez strikes me as a peak candidate whose peak isn’t quite enough. Duffy (who I have voted for in the past) is buried in the OF glut. Beckley and Sewell were both fine players whose supporters have never swayed me.
   149. KJOK Posted: June 26, 2006 at 10:04 PM (#2076872)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. WILLIE MAYS, CF. Obviously.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

6. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

7. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Better than Ernie Banks. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

8. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

9. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

10. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

11. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

12. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

13. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

14. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

15. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He’s back! He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

FRANK HOWARD, LF. 23 POW, 78 WARP1, 189 RCAP & .649 OWP in 7,353 PAs. Def: FAIR. A defensive liability corner OFer needs either a really long career or really high offensive performance, and Howard falls just short of both.

LUIS APARICIO, SS. 12 POW, 92 WARP1, 51 RCAP & .425 OWP in 11,230 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. One of the worst BBWAA HOF selections.



RETURNEES:

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, , 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still ahead of him, such as Doerr, Childs, & Gordon.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.
   150. KJOK Posted: June 26, 2006 at 10:06 PM (#2076884)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. WILLIE MAYS, CF. Obviously.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

6. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

7. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Better than Ernie Banks. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

8. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

9. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

10. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

11. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

12. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

13. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

14. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

15. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He’s back! He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

FRANK HOWARD, LF. 23 POW, 78 WARP1, 189 RCAP & .649 OWP in 7,353 PAs. Def: FAIR. A defensive liability corner OFer needs either a really long career or really high offensive performance, and Howard falls just short of both.

LUIS APARICIO, SS. 12 POW, 92 WARP1, 51 RCAP & .425 OWP in 11,230 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. One of the worst BBWAA HOF selections.



RETURNEES:

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, , 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still ahead of him, such as Doerr, Childs, & Gordon.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.
   151. Evan Posted: June 26, 2006 at 10:06 PM (#2076886)
76 players receiving votes so far... what's the record?

I'm seeing 82 in 1968 and 1969.


Up to 81 now.
   152. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: June 26, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#2076925)
Copied over from the discussion thread, since it's my first ballot:
My philosophy: PEAK PEAK PEAK. To me, I don't want any team comprised of non-HoM players, playing at their peak, to be able to beat a team of HoM players, also at their peak. No Jake Beckleys for me. I also put a major premium on consecutive or near-consecutive peak (eg, peak interrupted by one injury year). If a player is wildly inconsistent, its impossible for a team to utilize him correctly, and that makes him less valuble. My general rule of them is 3 year peak minimum for players, 2 year peak minimum for pitchers but I prefer 3 years for the pitchers. I give some amorphous extra credit for 5 year prime.

My ballot:

1)Willie Mays. Duh.
2)Ralph Kiner-He's a truly awesome hitter, Sisler's equal or probably superior. He's no great shakes in the field, but, he'd have to be Luzinski-like to not be HoM worthy. He wasn't that bad. The preeminent NL slugger of his generation.
3)Jose Mendez-I'm persuaded by the work of others that he would have had a super, Koufax-like peak if he pitched in the majors. That's superior to the others on the ballot.
4)Charlie Keller-Not much distinguishes Kiner and Keller, though I fear that Keller may have been helped (or rather, less hurt) by his park, and so is overrated by OPS+.
5)Dizzy Dean-For 3 years, best NL pitcher behind Hubbell. As a bonus, his team won the WS during one of those years.
6)Gavvy Cravath-I give him credit for missed seasons in his "true" prime; I don't buy the "not good enough for the bigs" argument. It would be shocking for a player with his post-prime not to have a HOM worth prime (though not impossible: see Hondo). Because of the strength of what is, and probably what was, he should be in.
7)Rube Waddell-A 2 year peak, but oh, what a peak. Best pitcher in the majors after Mathewson at his best.
8)George Sisler-I think that it's sort of hard to make the case for Gorgeous George when guys like Kiner are still kicking around the backlog. A great hitter (probably ~165OPS+ over his prime), but was he better enough as an all-around guy to jump ahead of the corner OF's? I don't think so.
9)Al Rosen- Brilliant, in an era when teams were still putting out offensive stiffs at 3B. Who was his competition in the AL, Nellie Fox? You can't judge him against the 3B's that follow him, IMO.
10)Minnie Minoso-Gavvy-lite. See above.
11)Bucky Walters-It's really only 2 great years, but those 2 great years are better than (for instance) Grimes's 2 great years. Similar to Dean, but w/o the T.T.O. style of pitching.
12) Ken Boyer-He's not Rosen, but that's no disqualification. Great all-around player. Probably even stronger from a career-value POV.
13) Vern Stephens- I don't get why he doesn't get more love. Even ignoring his war years, he's a well-above average hitter who doesn't kill you in the field. And he's a SS. Sure, he's partially a creation of Fenway, and he was a drunk, but there aren't enough SS's of his caliber for that to be a disqualifier (unlike, say, Chuck Klein and Hack Wilson, who face the glut of corner OF).
14) Joe Sewell-His best year screams "BIPA fluke!" to me, but he's still, like Stephens, an above average (115OPS) hitter who plays SS for you. I don't really have any opinion as to the order of Sewell or Stephens-think of it as a tie.
15) Roger Bresnahan-Yes, he's an odd case...and yes, he gets killed on the Ink. But I still think that when you factor in the difficulties of what he did, when he did it, he belongs.


And required disclosures:

Hugh Duffy: He doesn't strike me as quite as good as the hitting backlog from the modern era, and that, combined with the uncertainties of play pre-1900 (and frankly, my own ignorance of the era) leads me to leave him off the ballot. Someone I'd like to consider further as I do this for longer.

Dick Redding: His peak isn't the equivalent of Mendez's, so he has to slot below him. From what I can tell, you can't distinguish him from guys like Waddell based on peak. Redding would probably be the 2nd pitcher off my ballot (after Joss), but its not enough.
   153. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 26, 2006 at 10:48 PM (#2076932)
My ballot's coming, but it won't add anybody new.
   154. Happy Jack Chesbro Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:01 PM (#2076941)
I'm seeing 82 in 1968 and 1969.

Up to 81 now.


Vote for me!
   155. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:09 PM (#2076949)
I just posted this on the discussion thread - wanted to post it here too . . . regarding Bernie's ballot (that has a nice ring to it!)

I wonder what you think, as a peak voter, of Pete Browning and Charley Jones (along with Hugh Duffy, I guess) who seem to be the consensus picks for best remaining peak position players of the 19th century.

I am going to reconsider 19th century guys as it goes along....but due to my general ignorance of that era, I need to start with guys from the Modern.

The peak guy I really have a hard-on for? Smokey Joe Wood. He'd probably start for the non-HoM team in my imaginary HoM v. non-HoM matchup, don't you think?"

Welcome aboard Bernie - always good to have a Yankee fan join the crowd.

A few things, thanks for your honesty - but if you aren't considering 19th Century guys, I don't know how we can consider it a valid ballot. I understand wanting to start with the guys you know - but that's only fine for starting the process, not for voting. I hope you understand that. One of my biggest fears as this moves into the time that everyone remembers is that we are going to get a slew of new voters that only vote for the guys they remember.

Obviously, that's not the case here - you are going back to the deadball era - but there's still another 30 years of baseball to consider.

I hate to be the tough one here, but I guess that's sort of my job :-) But I don't think the ballot is valid for that reason.

We'll gladly welcome it once you give full consideration to the 19th Century players.

As was said above, I think Charley Jones and Cupid Childs will do pretty well by you - Browning will depend on how much you discount the AA.

Does anyone object to this? We're going to have to be a little more vigilant here as we move forward . . . feel free to speak up anyone, if you think I'm off base here.
   156. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:35 PM (#2077001)
Funny thing – Joe Gordon rarely made my ballot, and I was willing to argue that Bobby Doerr was distinctly better. But when Doerr finally moved ahead of Cupid Childs in my 2B rankings and got into my PHoM, I kind of said to myself “Give me 5 years, and Gordon will do the same thing.” All I can say is, I know how my mind works.

Mays and Gordon make my PHoM this year.

1. Willie Mays (new) Funny, in his thread nobody talked about his time with the Mets that much…

2. Tommy Leach (3) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Made my PHoM in 1940.

3. Bill Monroe (4) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

4. Quincy Trouppe (5) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

5. Dick Redding (6) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in. For now, Daisy-Cutter Dick is ahead because I find his career argument stronger than Mendez' peak one. From what I’ve gathered about the new numbers, nobody’s really sure what they mean yet. Made my PHoM in 1973.

6. Minnie Minoso (10) I think he's a bit ahead of Medwick & Johnson among corner OF, but it's very hard to be sure. Gets a bit of an era boost – even though the AL was the weaker league, overall I think the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Also, the spread between the leagues took some time to develop. Made my PHoM in 1971.

7. Jose Mendez (9) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer. Made my PHoM in 1975.

8. Joe Sewell (7) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. The comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. Bancroft may be underrated, but Sewell’s batting advantage is enough to keep him ahead for me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. George Van Haltren (11) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

10. Dobie Moore (8) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

(10A Joe Gordon)

11. Gavvy Cravath (12) You know, I did have Willard Brown pretty high on my ballot. With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him (I do need to redo my attempted WS-to-WARP translation with the latest system). Like Minoso, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.

12. Cupid Childs (13) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932

13. Rube Waddell (14) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing. But his era is pretty well-represented for pitchers.

(13A Joe Medwick)

14. Bob Johnson (15) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.

I’ve said this before – Johnson does better by WARP (although it is a little closer now), and if you look at just the years they were both playing (which takes off 4 years for Medwick where he totaled 12 Win Shares) Medwick’s ahead 300-287, or 1 WS/year. It is certainly possible that Johnson, on a bad team that tended to be even worse than their Pythagorens, is undercounted by Win Shares. Medwick had a better peak, but Johnson was remarkably consistent, and might even deserve some minor league credit. I will admit Medwick deserves to rank higher, but if I ever put him in my PHoM, Johnson will be right behind him.

Pretty passionate for the 14th guy on my ballot, huh?

15. Billy Pierce (16) There really isn’t much separating him from Bunning when you look at the totality of his career, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive. Did have his best years in the early 50s, when the NL advantage was not so great.

16. Ken Boyer (17) I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question.
17. Bus Clarkson (18) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
18. Jake Beckley. (20) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
19. Alejandro Oms (19) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
(19A Biz Mackey, 19B Clark Griffith, 19C Richie Ashburn)
20. Phil Rizzuto (22) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
21. Charlie Keller (21) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
(21A Cool Papa Bell, 21B Max Carey)
22. Bob Elliott (24) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson and Boyer. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
23. Ben Taylor (23) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
(23A Sam Thompson, 23B Rube Foster)
24. Ralph Kiner (30) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
(24A Hughie Jennings)
25. George Sisler (27) I know he wasn’t really a 124 OPS+, but his peak wasn’t as historic as some make it out to be, and he just doesn’t have enough career value for me.
26. Bucky Walters (29) A strong peak, but the wartime factor is just too strong for a marginal case like this.
27. Nellie Fox (28) Just can't have him on the same level as Gordon or Childs. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
28. Vern Stephens (26) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto.
29. Edd Roush (25) Maybe he was a great player in Oakland City, but it was his choice to be there, so tough luck.
30. Burleigh Grimes (37) A lot of career value, but still just not enough there to get any higher than this.
31. Pie Traynor
32. Frank Howard (new) Maybe WARP gives too harsh a fielding penalty, but I just can’t see him matching up with Kiner or Keller.
33. Roger Bresnahan
34. Bill Byrd
35. Bobby Veach
36. Lave Cross
37. Charley Jones
38. Vic Willis
39. Dave Bancroft
40. Dizzy Dean

56. Hugh Duffy. The only top-10 returnee I’ve ever had anywhere near this low. I have him very close to Mike Griffin – played a little longer, had a better peak, but they’re almost identical hitters and Griffin was clearly a better fielder. I just don’t see him at all.
   157. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2077020)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
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