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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, July 03, 2006

1980 Ballot

Prominent newbies: Al Kaline, Ron Santo, Juan Marichal, Orlando Cepeda, Norm Cash, and Dick McAuliffe.

Top-ten returnees: José Méndez, Minnie Minoso, Ralph Kiner, Joe Sewell, Jake Beckley, Cannonball Dick Redding, Hugh Duffy, and Nellie Fox.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 03, 2006 at 12:31 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Jim Sp Posted: July 06, 2006 at 07:15 PM (#2089620)
Kaline #1, Santo #2, Cash #10, all PHoM. Marichal, then Frank Howard, Keller, Kiner on deck for PHoM.

Cepeda #31, McAuliffe #40.

1) Kaline--Easily a top 100 player, I’m surprised that there are some naysayers on Kaline.
2) Santo--No doubt the HoF will elect Gil Hodges before him, but we’ll get it right here.
3) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one. PHoM in 1970.
4) Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
5) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
6) Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B before Mathews. PHoM in 1960.
7) Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
8) Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. Compare to Julian Javier, his hitting was way above replacement.
9) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right. PHoM in 1970.
10) Norm Cash--Wow, the 60s run environment justifies quite an adjustment. I didn’t expect him to be this high.
11) Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
12) Marichal--Never would have expected to have him below Cash, but the run support did make him overrated.
13) Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs. PHoM 1972.
14) Lombardi-- A long career as a catcher with a big bat. Almost 2000 games caught including PCL. PHoM 1976.
15) Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control. PHoM 1975
16) Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit. 10 top 10 seasons in AL ERA+. PHoM 1975.
17) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976.
18) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
19) Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
20) Frank Howard--The man could mash.

Mendez--#35, I rate him right below Joss. PHoM in 1932.
Kiner--#20
Redding--#47.
Hugh Duffy—#82. Good hitter, great fielder. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan are even in my estimation, but off the ballot.
Moore--#33, I didn’t vote for Jennings either.
   102. favre Posted: July 06, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#2089826)
I had the opportunity last week to meet Joe Dimino, Dagnabbit and a few other primates in person last week at the SABR convention. It was great to finally put some faces to the names.

I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Al Kaline
2. Charley Jones
3. Ron Santo

Jones ahead of Santo? From 1876-1880 Charley Jones posted OPS+ seasons of 183, 169, 158, 156, and 154. Give him two years of credit for his blacklisted years, and Charley has a better prime than Santo, even though Santo had six years with an OPS+ above 130 as a third baseman (and a seventh at 129). Kaline’s career—fourteen seasons with at least 450 PA and a 120 OPS+--gives him the top spot.

4. Rube Waddell
5. Jake Beckley
6. Juan Marichal

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Marichal’s top four—169, 165, 166, 144—are nearly as impressive. He’s significantly better than Billy Pierce, and I like Pierce a lot.

Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. Beckley’s thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 122 keeps him in the top five.

7. Dobie Moore
8. Bob Elliott
9. Ken Boyer

I’ve dropped Moore some as Chris’ new numbers have sunk in, but I still think he’s the best shortstop on the ballot, and (Ernie Banks notwithstanding) has been for a while. He is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see how you could put Sewell ahead.

Elliott and Boyer are fairly similar players. Elliott was a better hitter and had a little longer prime, which gives him the edge over Boyer’s defense. We currently have only four infielders from the 1950s (Robinson, Resse, Mathews, and Banks), so Boyer would help fill a gap there as well.

10. Billy Pierce
11. Ralph Kiner
12. Orestes Minoso

We are very short on pitchers from 1941-55. Pierce is the best pitcher left from the 1950s, with five seasons with an ERA+ over 130: 201, 148, 141, 136, 133, and a sixth season at 124. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams with excellent defenses.

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two; I’m glad to see the electorate is beginning to agree. By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is only one year shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher, with OPS+ seasons of 184, 184, and 173.

13. Vic Willis
14. Nellie Fox
15. Roger Bresnahan

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

I’ve already mentioned that we only have three infielders from the 1950s. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

We also have no one at catcher from 1891-1910. Bresnahan would not only help fill that gap, but also (a possible) one at CF from 1901-5, depending on what position you assign Pete Hill.

16-20: Bucky Walters, Gavvy Cravath, Jose Mendez, Wally Schang, Cupid Childs.

Jose Mendez: Has been in my pHoM for years, and is still in my top twenty. I would welcome his induction, although I think there are several pitchers with better cases in front of him.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more. The fact that the HoF committee did not pick him doesn’t encourage me to move him up.

Hugh Duffy: Only one big year, and I question his WS A+ fielding grade. There is also no dearth of centerfielders in the Hall of Merit.

Joe Sewell: See Moore comment. Sewell does not stack up well with other SS in the HoM.
   103. Rob_Wood Posted: July 07, 2006 at 04:45 AM (#2090705)
1980 ballot:

1. Al Kaline - solid top half HOM'er
2. Ron Santo - SABR cause celeb, deserving of HOM
3. Juan Marichal - great 1960's pitcher for my favorite team
4. Jake Beckley - luv the career
5. George Van Haltren - star of the underrepresented 1890s
6. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
7. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
8. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
9. Cupid Childs - very good second baseman during the 1890s
10. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
11. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop, could be higher
12. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
13. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
14. Luis Aparicio - my luv of long careers is showing
15. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
-----
16-20. Sewell, Traynor, Klein, Minoso, Mendez
21-25. Keller, Maranville, Cepeda, Cash, Wilson
26-30. Pierce, Leach, CPBell, Waddell, CJones

Not voting for: Dick Redding (very good pitcher I have just off ballot)
and Hugh Duffy (not anywhere near my ballot).
   104. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 07, 2006 at 08:17 AM (#2090770)
A little early this year. My full top 101 is on the discussion thread, post 201.

1. Al Kaline RF (n/e) - The 3rd greatest RF in history to this point, behind only Ruth and Ott. An underrated all-time great.

2. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

3. Joe Sewell SS (15) - I've been too hard on him. With my revised rankings, he's smack dab in the middle of the pack among HoM SS's. I'm glad he didn't get rushed in, but now I've come full circle and think he's waited too long.

4. Jack Quinn SP (5) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a huge leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26.

5. Billy Pierce SP (6) - What's not to like? He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. I could see Mike Mussina ending up like Pierce historically. He's first among the eligibles in RSAR (using DERA and Translated IP). And that's using a fairly high replacement level, of .404 WPct.

6. Juan Marichal SP (n/e) - Not as good as I would have guessed. Great peak. But he basically has the 6 great years, and was a little better than league average over the rest of his career. I wouldn't trade the career of Drysdale, Bunning, Quinn or Pierce for Marichal's, even with the peak.

7. Charley Jones LF (8) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

8. Jake Beckley 1B (2) - Drops a bit, but I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

9. Norm Cash 1B (n/e) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example. This is a conservative ranking. I will be VERY disappointed if he isn't eventually elected.

10. Ron Santo 3B (n/e) - I've got him a smidge below Heine Groh. Groh was a better player, both hitting and fielding, Santo almost closes the gap with his career length. Compared to 3B of his time, Pie Traynor was a better hitter, but Santo makes up for it with his glove and again, his career length.

11. Tommy Bridges SP (11) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

12. Wally Schang C (17) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense questionable, only thing keeping him from the #3 spot on this ballot.

13. Cupid Childs 2B (18) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.

14. Dave Bancroft SS (13) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

15. Burleigh Grimes SP (19) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.

Knock, knockin' on my ballot's door . . .

Luke Easter, Dobie Moore, Tony Lazzeri, Roger Bresnahan, Elston Howard, Nellie Fox, Ralph Kiner, Charlie Keller, Phil Rizzuto, Tommy Leach, Pie Traynor, Bob Johnson, Virgil Trucks, Urban Shocker, Bucky Walters, Dutch Leonard, Dolph Luque.

Required disclosures . . .

José Méndez: Between Waite Hoyt and Vic Willis for me, #15 among eligible pitchers. A hair behind Dizzy Trout and Bucky Walters, who I think are good comps.

Minnie Minoso: Between Duke Farrell and Bill Monroe, #38 among eligible hitters. What's the difference between him and Edd Roush - who I have at #34 among hitters. Or Orlando Cepeda, who I have at #43?

Ralph Kiner: I'm dropping him a fair amount this week - I've got him #17 among hitters, had him #8 overall last time. I don't think I was accounting enough for defense in the past. He's quite similar to Charley Jones, but Jones was a plus fielder, Kiner a minus. That makes all the difference in competition this tight.

Cannonball Dick Redding: I've got him #22 among eligible pitchers, between Mel Harder and George Uhle. I could be being too hard on him, the highest I could see pushing him is up to #11, behind Dolf Luque - who could also hit, and had a nice long career with some big seasons thrown in.

Hugh Duffy: I've got little love for Hugh. I mean he was a good of a hitter as Roush - but hitters at the same position in his time has a .579 OWP, Roush's position peers had just a .530 OWP. Duffy was a good fielder, but not in a class with someone like Mike Griffin, who hit just as well, considering he played CF his whole career, while Duffy had considerable time on the corner. I just don't get it with him.

Nellie Fox: Just missed my ballot would be in the top 25. Unique player in that he played 2B in an era where 2B hit as poorly as they ever have. I think he's Miller Huggins, with an extra 40% on his career. A real tweener on the in/out line.
   105. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 07, 2006 at 08:37 AM (#2090774)
To any ballot counters who may have been reading at 4 a.m., I updated my ballot because I realized I forgot Schang when writing it up . . . just wanted to note it here . . .
   106. Daryn Posted: July 07, 2006 at 12:48 PM (#2090826)
Rob, you should probably remove Bell from your ballot.
   107. sunnyday2 Posted: July 07, 2006 at 01:30 PM (#2090855)
1980

Last year’s #1 and #5 got elected. Kaline, Santo and Marichal go PHoM.

1. Al Kaline (new, PHoM 1980)—not inner circle but the class of this ballot. The Harry Heilmann of his day—i.e. an A-/B+ HoMer—though Kaline did everything well and doesn’t have any one gaudy stat to lean on

2. Dobie Moore (2 last year-2-2, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

3. Ralph Kiner (3-4-3, PHoM 1964)—there’s not just those 7 HR titles, but all those BB, too

4. Ron Santo (new, PHoM 1980)—below only Mathews and Baker at the time of his retirement, how we managed to believe that Brooksie was better I can’t recall

5. Rube Waddell (4-5-4, PHoM 1932)—second highest ERA+ available, and it turns out after all these years that his UER were not outside the norm

6. Larry Doyle (6-7-6, PHoM 1975)—15 years of 15+ WS, I don’t see another eligible “glove” who did that, plus same OPS+ as Edd Roush and 5 points more than Hugh Duffy

7. Charley Jones (7-8-7, PHoM 1921)—Charley made my PHoM without 2 MLE blacklist years; now, he moves up with them added in

8. Edd Roush (8-11-10, PHoM 1976)—really belongs ahead of Averill and Duffy, on reconsideration; and better than Cash throughout their respective primes

*Roush 326/38-33-30-29-28-23-22-21-20-18-16-15-10
Cash 315/41-27-24-24-23-23-21-21-18-18-18-16-16-15

*WWI years adjusted for season length

Roush 126/162-53-49-47-45-42-35-25-25-15-8
Cash 138/198-48-47-41-40-35-34-33-28-27-27-26-21-21

9. Pete Browning (12-10-9, PHoM 1961)—essentially equivalent to Charley Jones if you give Jones the two blacklist years, clearly better if you don’t

10. Addie Joss (9-9-8, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available

11. Juan Marichal (new, PHoM 1980)—perhaps overrated in his time, he is not Pedro Martinez or anything, but not far behind Koufax and an easy HoMer

12. Jose Mendez (10-13-12, PHoM 1957)—this is with essentially no credit at all for his hitting and his SS years

13. Frank Howard (11-x)—monster OPS+, better than Cash through prime years

14. Orlando Cepeda (new)—better than Cash through prime years

15. Hilton Smith (15-35-34)—moves up based on new NeL numbers, the pitcher I wanted Redding to be?

Drops out:

16. Minnie Minoso (13-14-13, PHoM 1970)—I give 2 NeL seasons though at well below peak level

(16a. Stan Hack [13a-14a-13a])

23. Bobby Estalella (14-15-x)—if his skin was either lighter or darker, he would have had a more conventional career (MLs or NeLs) and might be a PHoMer by now; as it is his career is very hard to get a handle on, but the ability was there

Required

81. Jake Beckley--worthy of a re-eval someday (karl), but haven't gotten around to it; he and Chance are the legacy 1Bs, otherwise the modern generation from Cash and Cepeda on makes everybody else superfluous

Close

16. Minoso
17. Nellie Fox (19-17-15, PHoM 1971)
18. Vic Willis (17-12-11, PHoM 1977)
19. Tommy Bond (27-26-25, PHoM 1929)
20. Phil Rizzuto (20-19-18)—one of the big winners in recent re-eval
(20a. Bobby Doerr [19b-17a-15a])

21. Ed Williamson (39-38-38, PHoM 1924)—lost cause, yes, but belongs higher than #39
22. Charlie Keller (21-20-19)
23. Estalella
(23a. Don Drysdale [19a-14b-13b])
(23c. Jim Bunning (19c-17b-16)—somewhere below Drysdale)
24. Norm Cash (new)—underrated, for sure, until now
25. Joe Sewell (22-21-20)
(25a. Richie Ashburn [22a-21a-20a])
26. Hugh Duffy (18-18-17)
27. Alejandro Oms (16-16-14)
28. Dick Redding (26-25-24, PHoM 1971)
29. Elston Howard (25-24-23)—new #1 catcher until Freehan comes along, much better than I had thought

They also ran

30. Jim McCormick (23-22-21)
31. Hack Wilson (24-23-22)
32. Wally Berger (28-27-26)
33. Mickey Welch (29-28-27)
34. Ken Boyer (30-29-28)
35. Dizzy Dean (30-29-29)
36. Dick Lundy (31-30-30)
37. Chuck Klein (32-31-31)
38. Al Rosen (33-32-32)
39. Frank Chance (34-33-33)
40. Pie Traynor (36-35-35)

41. Tony Mullane (37-36-36)
42. Quincy Trouppe (38-37-37)—no longer the best catcher around
(42a. Early Wynn [39a-38a-38a)
43. Gavvy Cravath (40-39-39)

44. Vern Stephens (41-40-40)
45. Mike Tiernan (42-41-41)
46. Cupid Childs (43-42-42, PHoM 1925)
47. Bill Monroe (44-43-43)
48. Bob Johnson (45-44-44)
49. Bob Elliott (46-45-45)—all the way down to about here, I still wish I could get all these guys on my ballot. Maybe Bresnahan, too, but after that, no
50. Roger Bresnahan (47-46-46)
(50a. Biz Mackey [48a-47a-47a])
(50b. Red Faber [48b-47b-47b])
(50c. Wes Ferrell [48c-47c-47c])
(50d. Willie Keeler [48d-47d-47d])

Really Dropped Out

xx. Bucky Walters (48-47-47)
xx. Lefty Gomez (49-48-48)
xx. Dave Bancroft (50-49-49)
(xxa. Jimmy Sheckard [50a-49a-49a])
   108. Rob_Wood Posted: July 07, 2006 at 04:17 PM (#2090989)
Thanks Daryn, will do. I don't keep real good track of who has previously been elected. Maybe I should (duh). I would probably have Larry Doyle in place of Bell on my extended ballot.
   109. dan b Posted: July 08, 2006 at 01:04 AM (#2091587)
Anyone else going to the All Star game?

PHoM class of 1980 – Kaline, Santo, Marichal

1. Santo More peak than Kaline. I grew up listening to Bob Prince, so Santo the homer in the booth doesn’t bother me.
2. Kaline More career than Santo. Since I grew up listening to Bob Prince, I’ll say Kaline not quite as good as Clemente.
3. Marichal Not as good as Koufax or Gibson, but clearly ahead of HoMers Drysdale and Bunning.
4. Duffy PHoM 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons
5. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. If you are going to the All Star game, check out the Kiner tribute next to the escalator in the left field corner. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
6. Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964.
7. Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
8. Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
9. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
10. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks puts Diz on my ballot for the first time.
11. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Dropping a few spots in 1975 – too many corner OF near top of my ballot.
12. Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
· 3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
· 5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
· 8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
· WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
· OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
· NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
· HoM Support – Roush slowly coming around? Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! That’s a shame.
13. Minoso PHoM 1972.
14. Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
15. Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
16. Cooper, W. Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942.
17. Ruffing
18. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
19. F. Howard
20. Fox
   110. Patrick W Posted: July 09, 2006 at 12:38 AM (#2092362)
Kaline just above the 25% HOM threshold, Santo just below that mark, everyone else fights to be in the upper half of spots 3-30.

1. Al Kaline (n/a), Detr. (A), RF (’54-’74) (1980) – Career triumphs peak again.
2. Ron Santo (n/a), Chic. (N), 3B (’60-’74) (1980) – I can’t imagine him with anyone other than the Cubs, but try to picture his ’63-‘68 with a team that could have done something with it in October. The White Sox, for instance, might have gotten 2 or 3 pennants in that era.
3. Juan Marichal (n/a), S.F. (N) SP (’60-’74) (1980) – Neck & neck with Ford & Drysdale in total value, thanks to the credit of his peak seasons.
4. Billy Pierce (3), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – With the pitchers this closely together, I’m stepping back from total value, and sorting them by pitching value for the ballot.
5. Ken Boyer (2), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding infielders further down the ballot.
6. Alejandro Oms (4), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Drops a little because the resume is so heavily non-US.
7. Dutch Leonard (5), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
8. Dizzy Trout (6), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
9. Norm Cash (n/a), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
10. Ben Taylor (15), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938)
11. George Van Haltren (7), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
12. Dom DiMaggio (8), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) (1978) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
13. Bob Johnson (10), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
14. Luis Aparicio (11), Chic. – Balt. (A), SS (’56-’73) – Luis causes a re-evaluation of the infielders. They are slotted correctly here amongst each other, but not yet among the pitchers and outfielders. All these guys could slot between spots 8-30 at the drop of a hat.
15. Joe Sewell (12), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – The one player from the top ten list here, and he only barely makes it himself. Can’t say I haven’t earned that worst consensus score from OCF.

Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Minnie Minoso – Probably one of the 15 best available players, but the anti-timeliners would have my head if my ballot were constructed like that.
Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 27 votes and Chuck Klein with 2 before I explain why he is off-ballot.
Jake Beckley – PHOM, but not good enough this year.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Hugh Duffy – This seems like we’re just pulling names out of the hat at random. 65 years later, still not better than Ryan or Van Haltren.
Nellie Fox – Phil Rizzuto comes first. I also say Maz is better, tho’ that’s probably because of the NL/AL quality comparison in the 60’s; I wonder how league quality affects fielding value.

One of the players from last year’s top ten actually made my top 15.
   111. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 09, 2006 at 04:55 AM (#2092523)
1. Al Kaline
2. Ron Santo

Pretty easy 1,2. It's close but I'll take Kaline's career over Santo's peak.

3. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

4. Joe Sewell - Outstanding shortstop. And could hit a little bit too.

5. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting centerfielder, long career

6. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

7. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

8. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

9. George Van Haltren - Good hitting CFer, over 400 adjusted win shares.

10. Minnie Minoso - Very good hitter, over 350 win shares after adding his negro league career.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Norm Cash - 139 career OPS+, monster season in 1961. Also a good fielder.

13. Hugh Duffy - Good peak, highlighted by his outstanding 1894 season.

14. Juan Marichal - Great peak, more career value than Mendez.

15. Jose Mendez - Outstanding peak, not much in the way of career value.

16. Bucky Walters
17. Bob Elliot
18. Edd Roush
19. Tommy Leach
20. Harry Hooper
21. Alejandro Oms
22. Buzz Arlett
23. Dizzy Trout
24. Orlando Cepeda
25. Gil Hodges
26. Fielder Jones
27. Pie Traynor
28. Ralph Kiner - Short career.
29. Billy Pierce
30. Cupid Childs

Dick Redding - outside of his three year peak he doesn't impress me much
   112. OCF Posted: July 09, 2006 at 05:50 AM (#2092541)
The one player from the top ten list here, and he only barely makes it himself. Can’t say I haven’t earned that worst consensus score from OCF.

But not this week. right now you're within a quarter point of the average consensus score, and that probably won't shift by more than a point in either direction with the last dozen or so ballots. Look at who you've got 1-2-3.
   113. mulder & scully Posted: July 09, 2006 at 06:37 AM (#2092553)
Used to be Kelly in SD

Voting method: Best seven years (prime) considered the most heavily. Best three straight years (peak) considered second. Pitchers is a 50/50 mix of 3 straight and any 3. Career and per season are considered third/fourth and weighed roughly equal. Bonuses for the following: best in league at your position (or top 3/4 if a starting pitcher) and being a catcher. Credit for minor league years once established at a major league level - usually after their first excellent year at the top level. Credit for Negro League seasons. Credit for WWI, WWII at established level. Credit for certain player transactions/structural issues - Charley Jones, Gavy Cravath, Jack Fournier, Jack Quinn.

1980 Ballot:

1. Al Kaline: Best career, a top 20 prime. The case of a player with a good peak, very good prime and a fantastic career. Among retired right fielders, Ruth, Aaron, Ott, Robinson, Crawford, Waner, Flick, and roughly even with Heilman. Dihigo and King Kelly played everywhere and I list them in right and I have them ahead also. Between 8th and 10th best RF.
2. Ron Santo: 5th best prime behind Jones, Browning, Keller, and Duffy. 7 gold gloves by win shares. Among retired third basemen, Mathews, Baker, Groh, and Sutton (with NA credit) rank ahead. Deacon White and Jud Wilson played all over the field, but I have them at 3rd and they rank ahead. Between 5th and 7th best 3rd basemen. Kaline is significantly better than Santo so he ranks ahead.
3. Mickey Welch: The weight of the evidence.
4. Charley Jones: The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1980, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
5. Pete Browning: Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not.
6. Charlie Keller: MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979.
7. Hugh Duffy: A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. I need to post that to the Duffy thread soon. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not.
8. Quincy Troupe: A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 19780.
9. Jose Mendez: From 1910 to 1914, only Johnson and Alexander were better. A gigantic peak.
10. Bucky Walters: Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers.
11. Juan Marichal: About the same as Koufax, Drysdale, and Ford, but slightly lower.
12. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close. 11th all-time among second basemen.
13. Vic Willis: Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League.
14. Dobie Moore: Banks before Banks. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1980 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers.
15. Tommy Leach: Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
   114. mulder & scully Posted: July 09, 2006 at 06:42 AM (#2092556)
16. Alejandro Ohms: Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.
17. Gavy Cravath: Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares.

18-22:
Chance: Best prime by a first baseman between Connor and Brouthers and Gehrig.
Howard: These four players are ranked as the best leftfielders in my system. There is no difference between them.
Burns: Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.
<u>Kiner</u>: Just a hair behind Burns for best LF on my board.
<u>Minoso</u>: Just a hair behind Howard, Burns and Minoso for best LF. I can't put all four on the ballot so none of them go. Will look more closely in the coming elections.

<u>22.5: Norm Cash</u>: somewhere in here. Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Even with the missed games.

23-27:
<u>Redding</u>: Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years.
Grimes: Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Cooper, Wilbur: He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
Roush: PHOM for years.
Bresnahan: I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era.

28-32
Doyle: Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired.
Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.
Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder.
Rosen: What if...
Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense.

33-37
Van Haltren: Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there.
<u>Cepeda</u>: A little behind Cash. Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
Waddell: Does not have as many big years as the other great pitchers of his era.
<u>Fox</u>: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
Schang: I see the arguments


38-40:
Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
Fournier: Remember to give him credit for the White Sox screwing up.
Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding.

41-45:
Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw
Scales: Pretty good player.
McGraw: Just not healthy enough.
<u>Sewell</u>: A good player, but just a little short.
Berger: Not enough prime years for me.

46-50:
Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.
Elliott: I need to review his candidacy
Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
Jones, F: Excellent defender. Stats are hard to difficult to understand because fo the context:
Denny Lyons / Ed Williamson: Two excellent third basemen of a bygone era.

Others:
<u>Beckley</u>: 11th best available first baseman. Around 140th among all eligible players.
   115. Mike Webber Posted: July 09, 2006 at 10:26 PM (#2093397)
Great to met Dr. Chaleko, KJOK and Ken Fischer in Kansas City this weekend, will try to give a convention report of some kind next week.

1) AL KALINE As a career voter mainly, those extra 130 Win Shares for Kaline put him ahead of Santo, despite Ron’s big peak and positional adjustment advantages.
2) RON SANTO
3) JUAN MARICHAL Best pitcher on ballot, big seasons separate him.
4) EDD ROUSH – The guys at the Negro Leagues conference were too polite to tell me I’m delusional about Roush, but my points remain the same, 314 Win Shares, 3 MVP type seasons, excellent fielder at a key defensive position.
5) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
6) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
7) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
8) MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner.
9) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
10) GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares. Even so, his career totals keep him ahead Duffy and the 19th century guys.
11) CARL MAYS – Strong peak, good career value.
12) ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger, Elston Howard, and Schang are ahead of Mackey on my list.
13) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
14) ORLANDO CEPEDA - 300+ Win Shares, MVP type seasons, deep position with no defensive bonus. Big seasons keep him ahead of Norm Cash.
15) KEN BOYER – His peak nudges him ahead of Traynor, 6th in games played at 3b when he retired – Mathews, Yost, Robinson, Traynor and Hack.


Disclosures – Jose Mendez and Dick Redding – Hard to rank, and not clearly better than the pitching glut, but I promised Dr Chaleko I’ll read the Mendez thread again next week.

Joe Sewell – I think Chris Cobb is on target with this one, ranks behind Maranville and Long.

Jake Beckley – good candidate at a deep position, but behind the 2 new 1b that joined the discussion this week.
Newbies – 4 in my ballot, Cash not in my top 25 but the second best first baseman in my ratings. McAuliffe, behind Doyle, and maybe Lazzeri, hard to see what he offers above a group of second basemen such as Evers and Myer. His non-2b fielding numbers are really poor.
   116. OCF Posted: July 09, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2093427)
mulder & scully ... Used to be Kelly in SD

May we assume that that's Mark and Vin?
   117. DavidFoss Posted: July 09, 2006 at 11:05 PM (#2093443)
May we assume that that's Mark and Vin?


Chris Carter has actually acknowledged that Dana is named after Vin.
   118. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: July 10, 2006 at 12:18 AM (#2093550)
Very strong class of new people this time.

1980 ballot --

1. Al Kaline: Looks really good in just about every category I consider. No. 6 is No. 1. (PHOM)

2. Ron Santo: Likely the second-best 3b so far. (PHOM)

3. Juan Marichal: Could have won 3 Cy Young awards, but in his best seasons there was always somebody better. Outstanding peak and prime, better career than Drysdale or Bunning. Best pitcher on the board. (PHOM)

4. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

5. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. The more analysis there is, the better he looks, and he looked really good already. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

7. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

9. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)

10. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

11. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

12. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning without league quality issues. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

13. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. Not so sure about him anymore; he’s slip-sliding. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

14. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)

15. Ken Boyer: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)


Required comments:
Jose Mendez: I’m toying with putting him on and dropping Redding off -- the HOF election is an influence.
Hugh Duffy: Hugh made my PHOM in ’40, but the field’s much deeper now. Near the bottom of my top 30.
Jake Beckley: Very good for a long time. He went into my PHOM in ’26, but I’ve cooled off on him since.

New guys:
Cepeda and Cash: Very close to each other and very close to the ballot. I give the edge to Cepeda, with one more good season. The MVP award (whether deserved or not) helps, too. But it almost looks like if one on, then both on. I’ll take the opposite tack this time around.
McAuliffe: Has only 5-6 full-time seasons, and didn’t exactly set the world on fire in any. Nice player, likely better than I ever thought he was, but nowhere near HOM-level.
   119. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 10, 2006 at 12:44 AM (#2093590)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Al Kaline-RF/DH/1B (n/e): I thought about Santo as #1, but Kaline's career was just too overwhelming. Best ML right fielder for 1955.Best AL right fielder for 1956, 1957, and 1967 Best AL CF for 1966.

2) Ron Santo-3B (n/e): Hopefully Ron will somehow be notified if and when he's elected. Best ML third baseman for 1967 and 1968.

3) Juan Marichal-P (n/e): Got him between Drysdale and Bunning. That smells like HoMer to me.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (3): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.          

The most dominating backlogger for his position 99.9% of the time for each election.

6) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (4): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

7) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (5): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

8) Pie Traynor-3B (6): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

9) Alejandro Oms-CF (7): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

10) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (8): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.
   120. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 10, 2006 at 12:44 AM (#2093592)
11) Burleigh Grimes-P (9): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

12) Mickey Welch-P (10): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Bucky Walters-P (11): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

14) Vic Willis-P (13): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (14): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Kiner, Redding, Mendez, Sewell, and Beckley all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   121. Buzzards Bay Posted: July 10, 2006 at 12:52 AM (#2093595)
#17..context
does Cash get the free pass in 2006
and what was his state of mind..mens rea
#69..The Temptations..inner circle
   122. Andrew M Posted: July 10, 2006 at 04:37 AM (#2093860)
1980 Ballot

1. (new) Ron Santo. Best available IF and one of the top 10 3B ever. He hit for power, got on base (he led the league in walks 4 times) and was a terrific fielder. In short, I like his peak more than Kaline’s and his career length is solid for a third baseman--well above 300 WS and 100 WARP.

2. (new) Al Kaline. I don’t think he requires much explanation. I too have him ranked above Clemente. If we’re doing music comps—let me suggest Elvis Costello for Kaline—long career where he was very good, but never the best.

3. (new) Juan Marichal. I hate going 1,2,3 with the new guys, but I think he’s the best pitcher on the Board for career (3500 innings) and peak (3 seasons above 165 ERA+). Among recent electees, I’d put him just below Drysdale and Ford and just above Bunning--well above the HoM in/out line.

4. (2) Edd Roush. One of the best players in the NL for a decade. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc.-- but to me he balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other contenders for this spot.

5. (3) Dobie Moore. The material presented on his thread confirms that he was a great player for at least 5 years. There’s a lot about his career we may never know, but with a few years' credit for his time playing in army, his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

6. (4) Nellie Fox. Fox was durable, consistent, got on base a lot, and an was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. To me, that seems like a player far more valuable than might be suggested by his 94 OPS+.

7. (6) Larry Doyle. His defensive stats are peculiar. If BP’s assessment is to be trusted, Doyle began as a terrible fielder and became a better than average fielder as his career was winding down. Also, it seems odd that he wouldn’t have been at least tried at some other position if he was really that poor. I spent some time last summer reading contemporary accounts of his fielding and came away without finding any real consensus—though there were several comments along the lines of “makes great plays when he has to, but sometimes misses the easy ones in less critical situations.” No question about his offensive abilities, however. Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star.

8. (8) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale or Marichal. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade.

9. (7) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Maybe the best eligible 2B, period. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him higher, but I like him better than I like the three 1890s OFs.

10. (new) Dick Redding. He’s been lurking just off my ballot for decades, but he jumps on the ballot this week as the closest comp on my spreadsheet to Juan Marichal. By reputation would seem to belong in the HoM, though the projections in his thread always seemed not to support his reputation.

11. (10) Rube Waddell. Rube deserves more respect regardless of how troubled he may have been. Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even accounting for innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.

12. (11) Geo. Van Haltren. Never an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

13. (10) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t an much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

14. (12) Ralph Kiner. I don’t really like this type of player, but he does seem like the best of this type--and 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

15. (13) Minnie Minoso. He played in a tough league and NeL credit bumps up his career value. We’ve elected several players he seems comparable to, for what that’s worth.

Next 7
16. Bucky Walters.
17. Quincy Trouppe.
18. Charlie Keller
19. George J. Burns
20. Phil Rizzuto
21. Vern Stephens
22. Alejandro Oms

Required disclosures:
Jose Mendez, Jake Beckley, Hugh Duffy, Joe Sewell.
Mendez strikes me as a peak candidate whose peak isn’t quite enough. Duffy (who I have voted for in the past) is buried in the OF glut. Beckley and Sewell were both fine players whose supporters have never convinced me they should be in my top 15.
   123. Paul Wendt Posted: July 10, 2006 at 04:42 AM (#2093864)
DL
I'll vote early this week since I won't be at work.

always makes me smile
(or frown when someone revises a pseudonym)


HM
I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature. So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. RON SANTO - I almost thought I'd wind up seeing him as overhyped by SABR types, but instead after a close look he beats Kaline by a nose for the top spot!


Wow. The best friend of Ron Santo is not a sabermetric type.


s
Vaux, Jack Quinn was 50 when he retired. Discuss.

longevity. Jack Kwinn had it. Kaline, Kash, and Kepeda kan't touch him.

ElC
11. Ned Williamson: Strong power-hitting peak/prime 3B candidate, who was an amazing fielder. BP lists him with a RATE of 116. That’s higher than Marty Marion, Brooks Robinson, Rey Sanchez, or Bill Mazeroski.

Is it possibly distorted by play at ss?
   124. DanG Posted: July 10, 2006 at 05:07 AM (#2093873)
My #1 and #3 were elected. A bumper crop comes on in 1980; we elect three from Kaline, Santo, Marichal, Cash and Cepeda. In 1981 Gibson and Killebrew breach the doors of the HoM, while Pinson joins the glut. The next year brings the stellar class of Aaron and F. Robinson, relegating B. Williams, Freehan and W. Davis to the backlog.

1) Al Kaline – Seen as a top-100 player almost universally. The Detroit Free Press had a top seven Detroit sports icon list recently. 1-Joe Louis, 2-Gordie Howe, 3-Ty Cobb, 4-Steve Yzerman, 5-Isiah Thomas, 6-Al Kaline, 7-Barry Sanders.

2) Ron Santo – Not a flawless resume, but a solid mid-level hall of fame type. The mind still boggles that he was rejected from the BBWAA ballot by the 5% rule. Could he have been nicknamed “Crab”, after an earlier day Cub infielder, which would help account for his poor support?

3) Juan Marichal – Not really close to being a top-100 player, almost universally overrated. I still think he’s a top-200 player, better than anyone from the backlog.

4) George Van Haltren (2,3,2) – Now in free fall. In six years, 1972 to 1978, he went from the #1 unelected player to #15. Why? Now in his 72nd year eligible. His day may come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

5) Tommy Leach (4,5,4) – Holding steady, finished mid-20’s for the eighth straight year. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

6) Edd Roush (5,6,5) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Avoiding Lost Cause status, he climbed another notch last year, beating Browning for the first time since 1951, when he was still a Shiny New Toy. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

7) Minnie Minoso (6,7,6) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

8) Roger Bresnahan (7,8,7) – Only about nine voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .380, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas
8—.386 N. Lajoie
9—.382 M. Huggins

9) Jimmy Ryan (8,9,8) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 16 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

10) Jake Beckley (9,10,9) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

11) Wally Schang (10,11,10) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

12) Burleigh Grimes (11,12,11) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3750+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey

9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller
11—3762 W. Hoyt
12—3760 J. Bunning
13—3759 B. Newsom

13) Charlie Keller (12,13,13) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too.

14) Cupid Childs (13,14,14) – I’ve voted for him seven times previously: 1914-15, 1942 and 1976-79. The backlog added since 1940 has finally played itself out. Players with OBP over .400, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1--.455 B. Hamilton
2--.433 T. Cobb
3--.431 T. Speaker
4--.423 D. Brouthers
5--.421 E. Collins
6--.416 C. Childs
7--.415 J. Burkett
8--.413 R. Thomas
9--.411 E. Delahanty
10--.402 J. Kelley

15) Ralph Kiner (14,15,15) – Hangs on to ballot spot. I’m not a big fan of short careers or narrow skill sets. But, I’ve never seen him on any “questionable hall of famers” survey. NBJHBA rates him ~#171. Like Keller, a long, high prime. Could move up.

Dobie Moore drops off again.

Top tenners off ballot: Redding, Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters. In fact, I have a suspicion that some of their lofty ranking is due to the fact that, because most of their analysis was the work of others, voters are unable to justify a downgrading.

Duffy was a regular on my ballot until 35 years ago and may return someday. I’ve never voted for Sewell, the “position-era domination” argument doesn’t do much for me.

Weak AL keeps Fox off the ballot, for now.
   125. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 10, 2006 at 05:22 AM (#2093879)
I don't have time to read the whole thread, so I'll try to come up with a comparison I hope nobody's mentioned. Sam Crawford=The Who. Clearly an all-time great, but gets somewhat overshadowed by their more notorious counterpart (Cobb/Rolling Stones).

Anyway, onto the fun. It turns out that Sisler was the first HoMer who I never cast any votes for. (Even Hugh Duffy, currently down in the 50s, did better at one point.) Kiner's another one with the potential to pull that off.

Kaline, Santo and Marichal make the PHoM.

1. Al Kaline (new) Another one of those boring "no-brainer" guys.

2. Ron Santo (new) Also an easy choice for me. Even in the 60s, there weren't that many third basemen who hit THAT well. And he did win 7 Win Shares Gold Gloves. A very strong peak, and compiled a reasonably good career value as well.

3. Tommy Leach (2) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Made my PHoM in 1940.

4. Bill Monroe (3) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Minnie Minoso (6) The more I look at him, the more I like him ahead of the other OF candidates. Gets a bit of an era boost from me – even though the AL was the weaker league, overall I think the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Also, the spread between the leagues took some time to develop. Made my PHoM in 1971.

6. Dick Redding (6) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in. For now, Daisy-Cutter Dick is ahead because I find his career argument stronger than Mendez' peak one. From what I’ve gathered about the new numbers, nobody’s really sure what they mean yet. Made my PHoM in 1973.

7. Quincy Trouppe (4) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

8. Joe Sewell (8) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. The comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. Bancroft may be underrated, but Sewell’s batting advantage is enough to keep him ahead for me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. Jose Mendez (7) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer. Made my PHoM in 1975.

10. Dobie Moore (10) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

11. George Van Haltren (9) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

12. Juan Marichal (new) Better than Waddell and Pierce, but not by that much. Not quite as fearsome as his reputation, but still a very good pitcher. Makes my PHoM this year.

13. Gavvy Cravath (11) You know, I did have Willard Brown pretty high on my ballot. With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him (I do need to redo my attempted WS-to-WARP translation with the latest system). Like Minoso, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.

14. Cupid Childs (12) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

15. Rube Waddell (13) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing. But his era is pretty well-represented for pitchers.

(15A Joe Medwick)

16. Bob Johnson (14) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.
17. Jake Beckley. (18) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. But I have to say it impresses me more than the ups-and-downs of Cepeda's career.
18. Billy Pierce (15) There really isn’t much separating him from Marichal when you look at the totality of his career, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive. Did have his best years in the early 50s, when the NL advantage was not so great.
19. Bus Clarkson (17) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
20. Ken Boyer (16) I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question. But Joe does have a point about better-hitting 3Bmen in the 1960s, so I slipped him behind Clarkson.
21. Alejandro Oms (19) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
22. Orlando Cepeda (new) With the NL advantage and more high-quality years, I like him just a little bit more than Cash. Still very fluid.
(22A Biz Mackey, 22B Clark Griffith, 22C Cool Papa Bell)
23. Phil Rizzuto (20) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
24. Charlie Keller (24) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
(24A Richie Ashburn, 24B Max Carey)
25. Norm Cash (new) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). People are overreacting both ways. Worse than Mickey Vernon?!
26. Bob Elliott (22) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson and Boyer. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
(26A Sam Thompson, 26B Rube Foster)
27. Ben Taylor (23) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
28. Nellie Fox (27) Just can't have him on the same level as Gordon or Childs. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
29. Ralph Kiner (24) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
30. Vern Stephens (28) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto.

31. Bucky Walters
(31A Hughie Jennings, 31B George Sisler)
32. Pie Traynor
33. Edd Roush
34. Frank Howard
35. Roger Bresnahan
36. Vic Willis
37. Charley Jones
38. Elston Howard
39. Tony Lazzeri
40. Lave Cross

55. Hugh Duffy. The only top-10 returnee I’ve ever had anywhere near this low. I have him very close to Mike Griffin – played a little longer, had a better peak, but they’re almost identical hitters and Griffin was clearly a better fielder. I just don’t see him at all.
   126. Ken Fischer Posted: July 10, 2006 at 12:05 PM (#2093948)
1980 Ballot

I’m in the processing of moving and doing this at a Kinko’s in Norman, OK. I’ll try to be more detailed next time. 20 cents a minutes! It was great meeting several of you at the KC Negro Leagues Conference this past weekend.

1-Al Kaline 443 WS
If I was starting a team I’d pick Kaline over Santo…but not by much.

2-Ron Santo 324 WS

3-Dick Redding
I’m still debating whether Mendez should go before Redding.

4-Jose Mendez

5-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Would’ve easily been over 300 if his Negro League years were in majors.

6-George Van Haltren 344 WS
I refuse to give up on Van.

7-Mickey Welch 354 WS

8-Juan Marichal 241 WS
Juan has a strong peak…and I’m overlooking the Roseboro thing.

9-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

10-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Gets no respect…a forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

11-Wally Schang 245 WS

12-Ken Boyer 279 WS

13-Bob Johnson 287 WS

14-Jake Beckley 318 WS

15-Tony Mullane 399 WS
He has the most WS for a non-HOMer…expect Kaline.


Sewell, Fox and Kiner are in my top 25. Duffy barely makes the top 50.

16-Edd Roush 314 WS
17-Joe Sewell 277 WS
18- Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
19-Nellie Fox 304 WS
20-Pete Browning 225 WS
21-Gil Hodges 263 WS
22-Ralph Kiner 242 WS
23-Dick Lundy
24-Curt Flood 221 WS
25-Red Schoendienst 262 WS
26-Ray Dandridge
27-Dobie Moore
28-Sam Rice 327 WS
29-Cupid Childs 238 WS
30-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
31-Luis Aparico 293 WS
32-Billy Pierce 248 WS
33-Ernie Lombardi 218 WS
34-Tony Lazzeri 252 WS
35-Leon Day
36-Judy Johnson
37-Rube Waddell 240 WS
38-Dizzy Trout 228 WS
39-Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
40-Lave Cross 278 WS
41-Dizzy Dean 181 WS
42-Bobby Mathews 158 WS
43-Hilton Smith
44-Bill Wright
45-Maury Wills 253 WS
46-Pie Traynor 274 WS
47-Rabbit Maranville 302 WS
48-Hugh Duffy 295 WS
49-Bucky Walters 258 WS
50-Firpo Marberry 177 WS
   127. EricC Posted: July 10, 2006 at 12:15 PM (#2093954)
1980 ballot.

1. Al Kaline - An outfielder with a career OPS+ of 134 in 2834 games and 443 Win Shares, Al Kaline passes the acid test of HoM worthiness.
2. Wally Schang - When Schang retired in 1931, he was the major league career leader in WS. He did not earn this distinction lightly, as his total of 245 is still 12th all-time among retired ML catchers. Futhermore, there are two factors that make him more deserving than the statistics show. First, the AL was the stronger of the two leagues during his time. Second, catcher durability during his time was low- by my estimates, 10 to 15 percent less than that for post-1930 catchers. Due to high OBP, had same career EQA as his exact contemporary Sisler(!)
3. Juan Marichal - Compares favorably with 60s pitchers that we've already elected.
4. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL.
5. Orlando Cepeda - Strength of the NL during his time helps his case.
6. Norm Cash - Cash 1961 = Olerud 1993? Cash was consistently very good for a long time; the kind of player that my system likes. And 1961 doesn't hurt. (Note: Cash overall ends up much higher in my system than Olerud, because 1B competition was much tougher in the 90s.)
7. Jose Mendez - Reputation and statistical evidence that he had a HoM-worthy peak. A Lefty Gomez-type career with the occasional domination, but better.
8. Charlie Keller - With reasonable war credit, his monster peak puts him ahead of Kiner in my system.
9. Frank Howard - By Win Shares, 297 WS/25.4 WS/162 in 7353 PA for a 60s player, very deserving. Although I don't use WARP, WARP3 doesn't make him look like a sure thing. A great hitter who played in pitchers parks in a pitchers era, and who, along with Cepeda and Cash, should not be quickly buried.
10. Ron Santo - I may have to turn in my HoM decoder ring for having him so low. PHoM definite. Lower than consensus because (1) I believe that the AL was the inferior league during his time, which makes his peak look less spectacular; (2) I don't give any positional bonus for 3B.
11. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers,
behind Blyleven. One of the overlooked great pitchers. Underrated by HoM voters because of his low numbers of games pitched in the 2nd half of his career, but as Joe Dimino has calculated, his "pennants added" still ends up at a HoM-worthy level. I'm happy to see recognition of and support for him and other great non-HoF pitchers of the 1930s-1950s such as Pierce.
12. Lefty Gomez - Very good to dominant in a time when dominance was rare.
13. Gil Hodges - The best or among the best 1B throughout his prime in the strong 50s NL.
14. Wally Berger - Though he doesn't look worthy by peak-only or career-only metrics, had quite a nice prime and pops onto my ballot as I tweak my ratings.
15. Nellie Fox - Borderline 50s 2B candidate. Solid prime, but some issues with AL strength.

Kiner #18 and Minoso #19 slip off this week.
-Redding is #29, just behind Byrd.
-Beckley is #64. As mentioned above, am less inclined to reward career lenght than before. I also use a population-based adjustment of raw numbers, which makes it hard for unelected early players to stand out, (Duffy #56), but I plan to eventaully test my hypothesis and am therefore open to readjusting inter-era comparisons.
   128. sunnyday2 Posted: July 10, 2006 at 12:30 PM (#2093959)
>10. Ron Santo - ...Lower than consensus because (1) I believe that the AL was the inferior league during his time, which makes his peak look less spectacular....

Did I miss something...like Santo playing in the AL at his peak?
   129. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 10, 2006 at 12:59 PM (#2093982)
Did I miss something...like Santo playing in the AL at his peak?

Yeah, that doesn't make any sense to me, either, Marc. Eric?
   130. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 10, 2006 at 01:06 PM (#2093989)
45 ballots tallied so far.

Still missing ballots from: Al Peterson (?), DavidFoss (?), Trevor P., Esteban Rivera, Tiboreau, Michael Bass, jimd, and James Newburg.

Since Dolf Lucky hasn't voted in the past five elections, he has been removed from my list.
   131. Al Peterson Posted: July 10, 2006 at 01:25 PM (#2094004)
Late ballots becoming the norm. New decade starts with some worthy candidates. Here’s where they fall with me in the 1980 ballot.

1. Al Kaline(-). All battery jokes aside a great player. Had trouble playing full years but was stellar when out on the field.

2. Ron Santo(-). Good hitting 3Bmen, flashed a little leather. Career definitely long enough since he played everyday for the seasons active.

3. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book.

4. Juan Marichal (-). You want to be conservative with 1st time balloters but I see him outpointing the rest of the backlog pitchers. Nice peak who added some extra seasons for weight to his career.

5. Bob Johnson (3). Let’s get the Win Shares issue out of the way first. The system don’t like him, that’s not the death blow for me. Therefore…

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 107.1 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

Comparison with Clemente

Clemente (14 yrs, age 24-37): 141 OPS+, 8003 AB + BB.
Johnson (13 yrs, age 27-39): 138 OPS+, 7995 AB + BB.

6. Rube Waddell (4). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

7. Tommy Leach (5). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

8. Hugh Duffy (6). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s. The fact he played LF is not a huge minus since it was more important defensively in the earlier eras of the game.

9. Edd Roush (7). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

10. Billy Pierce (8). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

11. Joe Sewell (11). I’ve come around a little bit on the ironman. His work at SS was excellent, lacked a little in length but not enough to dismiss as a candidate as we delve into the backlog.

12. Norm Cash (-). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things.

13. Cupid Childs (9). This is a nod to similarities to Sewell. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

14. Dobie Moore (10). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

15. Pete Browning (12). I think I had timelined him a bit in recent elections. Or else I’m to the point where as a pure hitter its hard to argue the man wasn’t something special.

16-20: Oms, Ryan, Mullane, Kiner, Mendez
21-25: Walters, Chance, Boyer, C Mays, Poles
26-30: Shocker, W Berger, F Jones, Byrd, Welch
31-35: Howard, Easter, Minoso, Keller, Cepeda
36-40: C Jones, Luque, Ben Taylor, Doyle, Beckley
41-45: G Burns, Willis, Bresnahan, Lundy, Grimes
46-50: R Thomas, Bancroft, Bridges, Maranville, Trouppe

Top 10 Returnees: Mendez(#20), Minoso (#33), Kiner(#19), Beckley (#40), Fox (#not top 50), Boyer (#23). There is a reason they are part of the backlog – each has their good points and bad points. Kiner is a peak guy with fielding issues. Mendez career was during the sketchy record-keeping stage of the Negro Leagues and other places he played. Minoso had a nice prime, didn’t advance his cause with NeL play as much as previously thought. Beckley you really must love the long career argument which I’m lukewarm to. Boyer, well my ranking might be a little cool on 3bmen in general. Fox, I just don’t get as opposed to other voters. I have other middle infielders ahead of him, the type of Doyle and Childs.

New guys: Quite a few made the ballot. Cepeda joins the slugging backlog around the Howard/Keller area. McAuliffe is underrated but still not the type of value needed to elect.
   132. Esteban Rivera Posted: July 10, 2006 at 02:10 PM (#2094038)
1980 Ballot:

1. Al Kaline – Easy number one for me when you look at everything he did during his career at the level he did it at.

2. Ron Santo – Great career at the hot corner.

3. Juan Marichal – Barely edges out all the pitchers in my consideration set.

4. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

6. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

7. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

8. Jose Mendez – Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

9. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Marichal makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

10. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

11. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

14. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

15. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

16. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

17. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

18. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

19. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

20. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.

Joe Sewell – Close to making my top 20. See Moore as better.
   133. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 10, 2006 at 02:37 PM (#2094066)
ElC
11. Ned Williamson: Strong power-hitting peak/prime 3B candidate, who was an amazing fielder. BP lists him with a RATE of 116. That’s higher than Marty Marion, Brooks Robinson, Rey Sanchez, or Bill Mazeroski.

Is it possibly distorted by play at ss?


Paul, that RATE is specific to 3B.
   134. DavidFoss Posted: July 10, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#2094092)
Historically a Tuesday-or-Wednesday voter, this is the second week in a row I've made John's 'reminder list'. Not sure why as I had my top three chosen quite early in the week.

At any rate, 1980 is the year I became aware of MLB. I also became aware of the NFL and also the world outside of my neighborhood.

1980 Ballot
1. Ron Santo (ne) -- Could have gone with Kaline here, but I think Santo is a higher-ranked 3B than Kaline is a RF. Some have said that the sabr-types push for Cooperstown may be overrating Santo a bit (as well as Blyleven) but that's just part of the selling process required to convince people to vote for him. Despite the early retirement, he's got quite a long career (10k PA)
2. Al Kaline (ne) -- Great player for a long time. In season durability issues keeping him behind Santo on this ballot but that could have gone the other way. No controversy here.
3. Juan Marichal (ne) -- Peak candidate -- and a fine peak it is -- yet he still accumulated 3500 IP. His great run support has him listed as "over-rated" but his neutral-win-loss-record is still better than Drysdale/Bunning's. Some overcompensation going on there.
4. Larry Doyle (2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
5. John McGraw (3) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
6. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
7. Dick Redding (5) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
8. Ralph Kiner (6) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
9. Gavvy Cravath (7) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
10. Charley Jones (8) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
11. Roger Bresnahan (10) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
12. Joe Sewell (11) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
13. Bob Elliott (12) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
14. Billy Pierce (13) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA.
15. Charlie Keller (15) -- Tough guy to rank, but thought I'd toss him some love. A legitimate HOM peak, but issues with minor league credit before, war credit during, and his health later have kept him low. Its tough to pull the trigger on a borderline guy when so much of his value is speculative.
16-20. Rosen, Browning, BJohnson, Chance, Lombardi,
21-25. Fox, Beckley, Welch, Trouppe, DMoore,
26-30. Minoso, FHoward, Roush, Cash, Leach,
31-35. Waddell, KBoyer, Cepeda, Newcombe, TBridges
   135. SWW Posted: July 10, 2006 at 03:44 PM (#2094133)
It took four players to replace George Sisler on my ballot. If only I’d known.

<u>1980 Ballot</u>
1) Albert William Kaline
I will confess to being someone who just automatically assumed Clemente was a better right fielder than Kaline, before I deigned to look at the numbers. As always, it’s best not to assume. 33rd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 66th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Sporting News Top 100. 90th on Bill James Top 100. 33rd on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
2) Ronald Edward Santo
My pick for Cooperstown’s greatest omission so far. One of the guys I’d most love to have seen play, if only so I could think of him on the field and not yelling “No! Noooo!” when Brant Brown screwed up. 87th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I was intrigued by the assertion that Grimes is “the Jake Beckley of pitchers”. I disagree. Grimes has some legitimate highs; he beats Beckley on Gray Ink 38 to 1. I feel like a more apt comparison for Beckley might be Mickey Welch. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Juan Antonio Marichal Sanchez
I gave Grimes a tiny edge based on the longer career. But Juan is certainly a worthy enshrinee. And could do a fair amount of damage with a bat, I’m given to understand. 58th on SABR Top 100. 67th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 71st on Sporting News Top 100. 88th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 66th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. Definitely the best left fielder on the ballot. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
6) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I have him at the head of a pack of very good second basemen, including recent inductees Doerr & Gordon. Slight edge for six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. It’s close, though.
7) Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Easier to swallow than the mess of pitchers, though. I do like me some center fielders.
8) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season.
9) Carl William Mays
I’m coming to believe that Carl is really one of the overlooked greats of the mound. I think if he’d had one huge season, he’d have easily gone in ahead of Lemon or Ferrell.
10) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
11) Edd J Roush
I look at Edd’s numbers, and I look at Sam Rice’s numbers, and it’s baffling to think that there are two very different ways to accumulate nearly the same stats.
12) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Looking at other infielders of the day, he’s very good. In fact, knowing his ability, he probably helps show just how good Santo actually was.
13) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
14) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
15) José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
It is very hard to get a handle on these guys. They both represent this bizarre mix of career and peak numbers, and my support for Mays makes me think they should be higher, but I just can’t figure out how good they really were. They will probably both get elected before I ever fully figure them out.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Joseph Wheeler Sewell
I’ve been looking at Vern Stephens’ numbers, and Sewell’s placement on my ballot is becoming less defensible all the time. Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares, although someone pointed out on their ballot that there were much better guys in the Negro Leagues at that time. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
Ralph McPherran Kiner
A real pickle. I have had him lumped together with a batch of candidates whose significant primes are not currently enough for me to support their induction, like Klein, Berger, and Keller. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I tend towards career numbers, but Beckley’s are so without peak that I’m hard pressed to call him a great. Kelly from SD articulated most of my concerns very eloquently. Many, many years ago, the discussion thread debated the comparison of Beckley to Rafael Palmeiro. I need to go and re-read that.
   136. James Newburg is in awe of Cespedes' CORE STRENGTH Posted: July 10, 2006 at 05:39 PM (#2094264)
1980 Ballot

1. Ron Santo - Peak, fielding gives him a slight edge.
2. Charlie Keller - Probably has the best peak of any player on the ballot. MVP-level for about a decade. If George Sisler had the same career path, would the voters have him where Keller is?
3. Al Kaline - Odd player; consistently great but always injured. His career is interesting for all the seasonal milestones he didn't reach: only scored 100 runs twice, had 200 hits once, 40 doubles once, never hit 30 home runs, 100 RBI three times, never walked 100 times. Yet he still ranks in the top 50 all-time in every one of these categories.
4. Juan Marichal - Overrated by the casual fan, but still a great pitcher, the best eligible. I really can't see any reason for a voter to leave Marichal off his ballot.
5. Jose Mendez - His is a peak case, but Mendez was one of the very best pitchers in the world for about five years.

6. Dobie Moore - Three easy HOMers bump him down. Best shortstop in baseball during his career.
7. Quincy Trouppe - A catcher with a reasonably long career, in-season durability, plus bat and average glove is a pretty valuable player.
8. Dick Redding - New data makes me a bit uncertain. Similar in career length and effectiveness to Pierce.
9. Billy Pierce - Quality pitcher who a) didn't really eat innings and b) played in the weaker league. Still a HOMer, though.
10. Ken Boyer - A notch below Santo: better fielder, worse hitter.

11. Bob Johnson - Wasn't flashy, but he got the job done at bat and in the field. Historically underrated.
12. Charley Jones - Masher. I think of him as a long-departed ancestor of Gary Sheffield.
13. Rube Waddell - Great pitcher who was either a) developmentally stunted or b) a little insane. Still, the ur-flamethrower who impressed with his gaudy strikeout stats.
14. Dutch Leonard - Poor man's Pierce. Never got his due as a nomadic junkballer for second-division teams. In that job description, you have to hang around as long as Niekro, Perry or John to get any sort of recognition.
15. Bucky Walters - Downgraded him too much because of the war.
   137. James Newburg is in awe of Cespedes' CORE STRENGTH Posted: July 10, 2006 at 05:43 PM (#2094266)
Minoso, Duffy, Fox are all in the 16-30 rage, Sewell and Beckley a bit below 30. Only change due to the reevaluation is Fox, who drops off because of low OPS+.
   138. EricC Posted: July 10, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#2094550)
Please consider the nonsensical portion of my Santo comment above deleted. My rankings remain the same.
   139. jimd Posted: July 10, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#2094557)
Final Ballot for 1980

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and unsupported Peak doesn't get too far in my system.

1) R. SANTO -- Prime 1961-72. Best-player 1966, 1967 by WARP; candidate in 1964 (WARP), 1967 (WS). 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in both WS and WARP in 1967, 1968; WARP adds 1964, 1965, 1966. Also a star in 1963, 1969. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1961, 1970, 1972.

2) J. MARICHAL -- Prime 1962-69. Best-player candidate 1965, 1966. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1963, 1965, 1966, 1969; WS adds 1964. Also a star in 1968. HM in 1962.

3) A. KALINE -- As I mentioned on an earlier thread, Santo's peak and prime outweighs Kaline's longevity in my system. Rate stats have very little effect in my system, so Kaline's susceptibility to injury hurt him, as does the lack of a "best-player" (MVP-like) season. Marichal and Kaline are in a virtual tie, so I went with the pitcher. Prime 1955-67. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1955. Other star seasons include 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1961, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1967. HM in 1965, 1971.

4) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

8) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

9) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929.

10) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

12) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

13) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

14) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

15) E. HOWARD -- Very different from Mackey. Prime 1961-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

16) N. CASH -- Ranks ahead of Cepeda, but just misses the ballot. Prime 1961-71. Best player candidate 1961. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1961. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1971. HM in 1969.

17) D. DEAN -- He's back onto this thin ballot. Prime 1932-36. Best player candidate 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star in 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

18) R. KINER -- If he was the best LF during those years, he'd be high on the ballot. Prime 1947-54. Star seasons include 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951. HM in 1952, 1953, 1954.

19) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

20) J. BECKLEY -- Not quite. Long low prime but never close to the best player in the league. Prime 1890-1904. 1st-team MLB All-Star in 1900. WARP adds 1894, 1901; WS adds 1893. HM in 1890, 1896, 1899, 1904.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Billy Pierce, Dick Redding,
23-24) Dizzy Trout, Joe Tinker,
25-26) Bill Hutchison, Hugh Duffy,
27-28) Nellie Fox, Rube Waddell,
29-30) Harry Hooper, Tommy Leach,
31-32) Mickey Welch, Edd Roush,

Orlando Cepeda. Prime 1958-70. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) 1963. WARP adds 1962; WS adds 1960. Other star seasons include 1959, 1961, 1967. HM in 1958, 1964, 1966, 1970. It's not a bad prime, but there are many better on this ballot. 1959-63 is not as good as Sisler's prime. He doesn't add a lot afterwards, other than 1967; when he had good rates, he didn't play enough; when he played a lot, he didn't sustain the rates.
   140. OCF Posted: July 10, 2006 at 11:18 PM (#2094573)
That's 51 ballots (and F. Jones, Veach, and Dunlap get their support). The only one still missing from last year's electorate is Tiboreau. The election is not close and the results should surprise no one.
   141. Tiboreau Posted: July 10, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2094608)
As we get deeper into the backlog I find myself reverting back to a peak-centric ballot. This year I take "the leap," as several big peak, short career candidates jump on my ballot after waiting on the wings. Part of this is due to the fact that prefer a small hall, and would rather see greatness elected, even if it was only for a short period of time, than merely very good play over a long time. However, I'll continue to enjoy this project no matter who is elected, especially from a historical perspective.

1. 3b Ron Santo (nc)—His peak puts him over Kaline by a nose.
2. rf Al Kaline (nc)—No, his peak wasn't sensational, but he was consistently very good for a very long time.
3. sp Juan Marichal (nc)—Those early Tacoma Giants teams were pretty good.
4. sp Jose Mendez (2)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
5. ss Dobie Moore (7)—Drops a bit with Chris Cobb’s new WS estimates; however, since his candidacy is based on his stellar peak (as well as pre-1920 credit) his numbers are underrated due to regression. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
6. lf Ralph Kiner (15)—Both Win Shares and WARP agree that Kiner & Keller were the best outfielders peak-wise available. Below Moore because, while their peak was better, Moore is closer to longer career, good peak infielders than the two peak-centric outfielders were to their counterparts.
7. lf Charlie Keller (ob)—See Ralph Kiner.
8. sp Dizzy Dean (8)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
9. 3b Al Rosen (ob)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons in a career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
10. 2b Cupid Childs (3)—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
11. cf Alejandro Oms (4)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
12. sp Bucky Walters (5)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
13. cf Hugh Duffy (6)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
14. c Quincy Trouppe (ob)—Outside of Luke Easter and the 19th century Negro League stars, Trouppes records have been the one I've been least comfortable with. I've finally ranked him, however, finding him to be a bit better than Biz Mackey.
15. sp Rube Waddell (11)—While a real good player at his peak, his character created interesting issues for his teams, evidenced by his disappointing IP totals during that time and his UERA totals over his career.

Required Disclosures:
17. 3b Ken Boyer (ob)—Not quite as good as Childs/Gordon, a bit better than Sewell/Elliott. Like Doerr (and Sewell) boosted a bit by WARP higher estimation.
25. 2b Nellie Fox (ob)—Two real good years followed by several slightly better than average ones. The opposite of Larry Doyle as a player, yet falls only one spot behind him.
27. sp Dick Redding (ob)—A pre-1920s Negro League candidate about whom little is known. Going by the translations on his thread, Cannonball would be much lower then this; I give him a boost considering the nature of the numbers in his era, but he is still primarily a career candidate.
29. lf Minnie Minoso (ob)—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory.
31. ss Joe Sewell (ob)—He had a solid prime, dominating in an era of weak shortstops; however, his peak isn't quite as strong as I'd like and his best competition was banned from the majors. Similar in value to Bob Elliott according to WS.
49. 1b Jake Beckley (ob)—Yes, he had a long career, he just wasn't good enough in any one season for my taste.
   142. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 10, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2094609)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   143. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 11, 2006 at 12:01 AM (#2094612)
Jeez.

Cutting it a little short, Tiboreau? ;-0

Give me a few minutes now...
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