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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, July 31, 2006

1982 Ballot

New candidates: Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Billy Williams, Bill Freehan, Tony Oliva, Willie Davis, Rico Petrocelli, Tommy Davis, and Tommy Harper.

Top-ten returnees: José Méndez, Joe Sewell, Minnie Minoso, Ralph Kiner, Billy Pierce, Cannonball Dick Redding, Cupid Childs, and Hugh Duffy

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 31, 2006 at 11:39 AM | 213 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. mulder & scully Posted: August 02, 2006 at 06:19 AM (#2122942)
Used to be Kelly in SD

1982 Ballot:

To recap my balloting:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums - pretty much Babe Ruth or Walter Johnson with Cy Young's career totals. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.


1. Hank Aaron: Yearly rank among position players in the NL by win shares: 1954: NR, then 5th (T), 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 10th (1966), 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 14th, 3rd, 20th (1972). In the 17 seasons from 1955 through 1971, Aaron was among the top 5 players in the National League, 15 times...
2. Frank Robinson: Yearly rank among position players in the NL/then AL by win shares: 1956: 7th, 6th, 11th, 6th, 10th, 2nd, 1st, 17th, 4th, 13th, traded, 1st, 3rd, 14th, 6th, 12th, 15th, NR (1972), 7th. How great was Aaron? Robinson was a top 5 player in his league 5 times, Aason tripled that.
3. Mickey Welch: The weight of the evidence.
4. Charley Jones: The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1980, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
5. Pete Browning: Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not.
6. Charlie Keller: MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979.
7. Hugh Duffy: A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. I need to post that to the Duffy thread soon. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not.
8. Quincy Troupe: A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 19780.
9. Jose Mendez: From 1910 to 1914, only Johnson and Alexander were better. A gigantic peak.
10. Bucky Walters: Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers.
11. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close. 11th all-time among second basemen.
12. Bill Freehan: Best catcher in AL 6 times. Best in majors 3 times. 5 times in the top 10 position players in the AL. 5 win shares gold gloves. He hit with power, he walked, he was a great defensive player. What’s not to like.
13. Tommy Leach: Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
14. Gavy Cravath: Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares.
15. Vic Willis: Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Place is very tenuous. Dobie Moore could push back on or one of the left fielders in the 18-21 knot could break out.
   102. mulder & scully Posted: August 02, 2006 at 07:19 AM (#2122956)
<u>16. Dobie Moore</u>: Banks before Banks. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1980 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers.
<u>17. Alejandro Ohms</u>: Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.
<u>18. George Burns</u>: Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.
19. Kiner: Just a hair behind Burns for best LF on my board.
20: Billy Williams: 7 times a top 10 player in the NL, 2 times in majors. Very similar value as Burns, Kiner, and Minoso, so slots in the middle. If I can find a reason to break the logjam among them, I will.
21. Minoso: Did not place quite as high in his league as Burns and Kiner did.
<u>22. Chance</u>: Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig.
<u>23: Norm Cash</u>: somewhere in here. Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Even with the missed games.
24. Redding: Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years.
<u>25. Grimes</u>: Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.

<u>26. Cooper, Wilbur</u>: He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
<u>27. Roush</u>: PHOM for years.
<u>28. Bresnahan</u>: I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era.
<u>29. Doyle</u>: Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired.
<u>30. Frank Howard</u>: Just slightly below the left field knot 18-21.
<u>31. Easter</u>: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.
<u>32. Long</u>: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder.
<u>33. Rosen</u>: What if...
<u>34. Stephens</u>: Great hitter. More than adequate defense.
<u>35. Van Haltren</u>: Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.

<u>36. Dean</u>: Great peak. Just nothing else there.
<u>37. Cepeda</u>: A little behind Cash. Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
38. Waddell: Does not have as many big years as the other great pitchers of his era. Lacks the innings pitched totals that other HoM pitchers of his era had. No credit for minor league time because he jumped his teams. He went to the minors on his own.
<u>39. Fox</u>: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
<u>40. Schang</u>: I see the arguments
<u>41. Tiernan</u>: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
<u>42. Fournier</u>: Remember to give him credit for the White Sox screwing up.
<u>43. Mays</u>: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding.
<u>44. Monroe, Bill</u>: He impressed the hell out of McGraw
<u>45. Scales</u>: Pretty good player.

46. Pierce: Pluses: led league twice in win shares, tied one other time. Minuses: His league leading totals are among the worst in American League history through 2005. I see the argument, but I think he is about the twelfth best available pitcher.
<u>47. McGraw</u>: Just not healthy enough.
48. Sewell: A good player, but just a little short.
<u>49. Berger</u>: Not enough prime years for me.
<u>50. Clarkson</u>: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.
<u>51. Elliott</u>: I need to review his candidacy
<u>52. Shocker</u>: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
<u>53. Jones, F</u>: Excellent defender. Stats are hard to difficult to understand because of the context:
<u>54. Denny Lyons</u> /
<u>55. Ed Williamson</u>: Two excellent third basemen of a bygone era.

Others:
Willie Davis: Long career. Lots of hits. He produced a lot of value, but his peak and prime were not high enough.

Sliced Bread: 11th best available first baseman. Around 140th among all eligible players.
No peak
Very low prime
His defense is overrated by some – I have seen a great deal of conjecture, but very little in the way of either anecdotal or numerical proof about how much difficult is was to play first in the 1890s. Also, I have never seen any explanation for why it should be tougher in that decade as opposed to earlier when they played without any gloves or later during the deadball era when bunting, or at least sacrifice hits, doubled compared with the 1890s.
Did not stand out against a rather poor group of competition in the 1890s among first basemen. - See Dr. Chaleeko’s wonderful posts on the Beckley Thread to see how he compares to other first basemen.
Comparisons to Harold Baines or Rafael “B-12” Palmeiro mean nothing to me because neither player will make my top 30 when they are eligible.
   103. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 02, 2006 at 11:51 AM (#2122987)
Yes. You're ignoring the fact that Bresnahan starred in the OF when he wasn't behind the plate. He also dominated his generation at his primary position, unlike the others (the sum total of his career, that is - I'm aware of Johnny Kling). Bresnahan's era for catchers was tougher on the body than later generations, so that has to be factored in (McGuire just wasn't of the quality of the others - durability was his real strength).

But I'm glad that at least your attempting a reasonable critique of my ranking instead of another ad hominem attack.

BTW, I really haven't done my full analysis of Freehan yet, so he may appear on my ballot next election.
   104. sunnyday2 Posted: August 02, 2006 at 12:08 PM (#2122992)
"John Murphy is nuts" is ad hominem? ;-)

Jake Beckley = Sliced Bread, now that's ad hominem! Pass the peanut butter.
   105. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 02, 2006 at 01:25 PM (#2123043)
M&S, that's sliced bread comment was very funny.

Boggs had the style and the talent, he didn't have an environment that was conducive to it--too many night games, too many PAs against fresh hard-throwing relievers--all of which would have depressed Cobb and Hornsby and all those guys, too, if they had faced them.
Interestingly, I read an article many, many years ago that said Boggs did have a .400 season. It just wasn't a continuous season. In some June-to-June context he hit .400 for the rough equivalent of a full season.

Looking in on retrosheet, I can't find it. What I do see is that from June 1985-May 1986, Boggs played 162 games, batted 643 times, knocked 253 hits for a .393 average. Not bad. And probably there's a few games at the tail ends where he struggled, and if you pull off a week or two, you'd get a hidden .400 season.
   106. karlmagnus Posted: August 02, 2006 at 01:48 PM (#2123076)
The mechanical bread slicer was invented by Otto Frederick Rohwedder in 1912; within 20 years more than 80% of bread sold in the United States was sliced. Thus the expression "the best thing since sliced bread." I suggest that by demonstrating Beckley had the convenience, popularity and consumer-friendliness of sliced bread you have made him an INEVITABLE entry to the Hall of Merit. He's just better than the competition!
   107. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 02, 2006 at 02:08 PM (#2123097)
Wow, and he had all that five years before Otto Frederick Rohwedder!

If only he could also remove the crust....
   108. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: August 02, 2006 at 02:40 PM (#2123131)
The mechanical bread slicer was invented by Otto Frederick Rohwedder in 1912; within 20 years more than 80% of bread sold in the United States was sliced. Thus the expression "the best thing since sliced bread." I suggest that by demonstrating Beckley had the convenience, popularity and consumer-friendliness of sliced bread you have made him an INEVITABLE entry to the Hall of Merit. He's just better than the competition!

Of course, slicing bread accelerates the staling process, thereby requiring sliced breads to be infused with lots of preservatives and/or excess oils in order to maintain freshness. That's why nowadays, no one with a brain buys sliced bread when excellent quality loafs from artisanal bakeries are available.

Beckley IS the sliced bread of candidates. Seems like a great idea at first, but then you realize you're better off without it.
   109. SWW Posted: August 02, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#2123224)
I hope no one has a problem with my top two. I wouldn’t want to make Karlmagnus angry two years in a row. Some re-thinking in the outfield.

<u>1982 Ballot</u>
1) Henry Louis Aaron Jr. – “Hammerin’ Hank”
So many numbers, so many reasons he’s earned the top spot. Here’s one: 15 times among the Top 10 Win Shares in the National League. Consistent, durable, and tremendously poised. Not to mention, a great ballplayer. 4th on SABR Top 100. 3rd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 5th on Sporting News Top 100. 12th on Bill James Top 100. 5th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 2nd on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Frank Robinson
With all the talk of league strengths and quality of competition, it’s nice to see a guy who actually proved he was one of the best in either league. 14th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 24th on SABR Top 100. 34th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 22nd on Sporting News Top 100. 24th on Bill James Top 100. 63rd on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Billy Leo Williams
Our third Cub with a retired number to join our ballot. Although the second one to actually get his number retired. Interesting. 71st on Ken Shouler Top 100. 100th on Bill James Top 100. 94th on Maury Allen Top 100.
4) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I was intrigued by the assertion that Grimes is “the Jake Beckley of pitchers”. I disagree. (And we definitely don’t want to get started on Beckley.) I disagree. Grimes has some legitimate highs; he beats Beckley on Black Ink 38 to 1. I feel like a more apt comparison for Beckley might be Mickey Welch. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I bumped him up a notch, as I’m starting to recognize how unique a second baseman of his caliber is at this point in the game. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
6) Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
That’s no knock against Minnie, though. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
7) Hugh Duffy
The recent rash of top notch center fielders has led me to question whether Hugh actually belongs this high. But the career numbers still justify his merit to me. Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler.
8) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
9) Carl William Mays
I’m coming to believe that Carl is really one of the overlooked greats of the mound. I think if he’d had one huge season, he’d have easily gone in ahead of Lemon or Ferrell. In fact, I’m a little baffled by the love for Billy Pierce when Mays has equal or better numbers for his career, and with two fewer seasons.
10) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Looking at other infielders of the day, he’s very good. Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position.
11) William Ashley Freehan
Wow, I haven’t been this surprised by a player in I don’t know how long. Stands far apart from the crowd, with Bresnahan and Schang the best of the lingering backstops. Three times in the AL WS Top 10, and those 11 All-Star appearances clearly mark him as one of the pre-eminent catchers of his day.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
13) José de la Caridad Mendéz y Baez
It remains very hard to get a handle on these guys. They both represent this bizarre mix of career and peak numbers, and my support for Mays makes me think they should be higher, but I just can’t figure out how good they really were. They will probably both get elected before I ever fully figure them out. In any event, congratulations to José on the new plaque.
14) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
15) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Joseph Wheeler Sewell
I’m pretty sure that if I had to have a shortstop on my ballot, it would be Vern Stephens. Fortunately, I don’t have to have a shortstop on my ballot. These guys, along with Maranville and Aparicio, are very good. I just don’t think any of them is among the 15 best eligible for a vote. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
Ralph McPherran Kiner
I’ve really raised my opinion of Kiner, along with that of Chuck Klein. Still not enough to make the ballot, but certainly somewhere in the 16-25 range. The shortness of the career still holds me back. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
Walter William Pierce – “Billy”
If he continues to place this high, I may get into this point-by-point. However, Grimes beats Pierce on career WS, prime WS, peak WS, Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards…and yet Pierce is in the top 10 while Grimes struggles to stay in the top 30. I just don’t get you folks sometimes.
Clarence Algernon Childs – “Cupid”
I was trying to figure out why he would be so high on the ballot, and then I saw his highest similarity score: Hughie Jennings. Oh. Still, Fox and Doyle strike me as having a greater impact against their competition, and have far superior career numbers.
   110. Al Peterson Posted: August 02, 2006 at 04:37 PM (#2123263)
1982 ballot – All-time HR king, MVP winner in both leagues, NL ironman. Wow, those guys were good!

1. Hank Aaron (-). My words would not do him justice. Let’s just say he is overqualified.

2. Frank Robinson (-). He spent the most years with the Reds but will forever be an Oriole in my mind. Must be the team success they had in Baltimore.

3. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book.

4. Billy Williams (-). He had the career that was equivalent to the next guy, adding in a couple years due to the new fangled DH thing. Extremely steady in performance.

5. Bob Johnson (5).
Let’s get the Win Shares issue out of the way first. The system don’t like him, that’s not the death blow for me. Win Shares require your team to win some games, something the Philadelphia A’s tried to avoid for the decade Johnson patrolled left field. Therefore…

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 107.1 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

6. Rube Waddell (5). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

7. Norm Cash (11). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things.

8. Tommy Leach (7). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

9. Billy Pierce (10). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

10. Hugh Duffy (6). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s. The fact he played LF is not a huge minus since it was more important defensively in the earlier eras of the game.

11. Joe Sewell (9). I’ve come around a little bit on the ironman. His work at SS was excellent, lacked a little in length but not enough to dismiss as a candidate as we delve into the backlog.

12. Edd Roush (8). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

13. Dobie Moore (13). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

14. Cupid Childs (12). This is a nod to similarities to Sewell. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

15. Pete Browning (14). I think I had timelined him a bit in recent elections. Or else I’m to the point where as a pure hitter its hard to argue the man wasn’t something special.

16-20: Oms, Freehan, Boyer, Mullane, Mendez
21-25: Kiner, Ryan, Poles, Walters, Chance
26-30: F Jones, Keller, Byrd, Mays, Shocker
31-35: Berger, C Jones, Welch, Easter, F Howard
36-40: Ben Taylor, Luque, Minoso, Doyle, Willis
41-45: Cepeda, Bancroft, Bresnahan, Grimes, Trouppe
46-50: R Thomas, Bridges, Lundy, Beckley, Joss

Top 10 Returnees: Mendez(#20), Minoso (#38), Kiner(#21), Beckley (#49). My ranking system tries to mix the peak, prime and career aspects into a single answer. So outside my top 15 fall 2 peaks, 1 prime, and 1 career. Beckley would be the one I’d have the most trouble balloting but I can see how someone with a career slant would like him. And really, there is lots of hairsplitting here trying to place so many people with similar qualifications.

New guys: Freehan falls just outside, probably due to people I feel belong before him still being in the top 15. Gotta clear backlog to make room. Oliva got hurt too young, Willie Davis stayed healthy but was good, not excellent.
   111. Thane of Bagarth Posted: August 02, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2123265)
1982 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but I try to allow additional career value to add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit.

1) Hank Aaron
8th best position player of all-time, thus far, in my ranks. Below Josh Gibson, above Tris Speaker.
2) Frank Robinson
17th best position player—between Nap Lajoie and Joe D.

3) Billy Williams
He’s nowhere near the top 2 this year, but I’ve still got him around 50th all time.

4) Jose Mendez
I’m thinking Marichal might not be a bad comp for him, and it looks like Jose may just make it, too, one of these years.

5) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers—yet.

6) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

7) Ken Boyer
53.3 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is third among eligible hitters. Plus 102 WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

8) Bob Johnson
Minor League credit moves him into he top 10.

9) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but, thanks to 300 extra IP and an OPS+ advantage of 13 points, Bucky wins out.

10) Joe Sewell
His top 5 WARP is close to Boyer (52.4), but his 5-yr. consecutive Win Shares are a little lower. Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.

11) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 47.4 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career: 88.4 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

12) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner and Howard for 2nd best top 3 seasons in Win Shares (unadjusted for season length) aside from the 2 guys at the top of my ballot. The extra war credit for Keller gets him a spot above Kiner.

13) Billy Pierce
He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.

14) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

15) Minnie Minoso—Longevity, mixed with modest peak and some NeL credit gives him the edge over Kiner.

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Dobie Moore
17) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.
18) Burleigh Grimes
19) Norm Cash
20) Tommy Leach
21) Gavy Cravath
22) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to undeniable career value, still, 37.6 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
23) Harry Hooper
24) Rabbit Maranville
25) Charley Jones
26) Jimmy Ryan
27) Bob Elliott
28) George Van Haltren
29) Sam Rice
30) Jack Quinn
31) Phil Rizzuto
32) Nellie Fox
34) Alejandro Oms
35) Orlando Cepeda
36) Vada Pinson
37) Fielder Jones
38) Quincy Trouppe
39) Vern Stephens
40) Dom DiMaggio
41) Urban Shocker
42) Spotswood Poles
43) Rube Waddell—He moves up about 30 spots this election with a small bonus for MiL play. I feel like the bonus is justified mostly in that it makes up for what looks like an otherwise low IP career for his era.
44) Gil Hodges
45) Carl Mays
48) Willie Davis—A decent player for a long time, but nothing to get excited about (even with credit for JpL years).
47) Bobo Newsom
48) Johnny Pesky
49) George Burns
50) Hugh Duffy—He was in a dead-heat with Sisler, who I only voted for once, in 1948. Win Shares likes Duffy more, WARP3 likes Sisler, I’m kinda splitting the difference.

Other Top Returnees Not in Top 50
72) Cupid Childs—I would like him better if his career value was a little higher. Still, there isn’t a huge gap between Childs at 72 and, say, Nellie Fox at 32.

Other New Players
Bill Freehan—He didn’t come out in my top 50 in my first effort to evaluate him. Currently, I favor Trouppe, but I am going to give him another look-see.
Tony Oliva—Decent career, but not really within shouting distance of the ballot.
Rico Petrocelli—Pretty nice peak (at least by WARP), but he didn’t hang around long enough to crack my top 100 eligibles this year.
   112. Al Peterson Posted: August 02, 2006 at 04:45 PM (#2123271)
Oh, and I love the single line from SWW above during his discussion of Billy Pierce: "I just don’t get you folks sometimes." That was exactly the feeling I got when seeing the posts re: yest/Waner. People getting excited about the placement of a player at #34 on one person's ballot?!? Maybe #3 or #4 but #34 -- well, I don't know where to go with that.
   113. TomH Posted: August 02, 2006 at 04:57 PM (#2123291)
Pierce/Grimes:

Billy has a much better ERA+; because he was above avg 14 years in a row, while Burleigh threw in a few clunker years. You could also say that while Grimes might have more win shares, he sure would also have a Lot more 'loss shares'. Yes Grimes has more IP, but part of that is the 1920s vs 1950s, and if we're going to be fair to all eras, we might wish to save some room for the post-WWII pitchers who aren't gettin much luv.

Hmm... before I stand up firmly on that statement, I oughta get more data. Where is the latest post of HoM players by playing decade or birth year? Have we ever split it up into pitchers/hitters?
   114. TomH Posted: August 02, 2006 at 06:48 PM (#2123448)
1982 Ballot
1982 - quite a year for me! Within 3 months, I graduate, get my first real job, get married, move states, and discover Bill James. Oh, and the Brewers were better than the Cardinals.

Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or RCAP adjusted for defense and timeline. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes (or value above average) higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- THE HAMMER
Holds records for most RBI and most total bases, both by large margins. And clearly deserves to hold both records; swap everyone to the same era, and it seems obvious he would still be the RBI and TB king. On my all-time team, hits cleanup against southpaws.
2- Frank Robinson
Not as famous as Rose or Griffey, but clearly in the top 20% of the HoM. Pushing the top tenth.
3- Billy Williams
Above his most comparable player on this ballot, Mister Beckley. And a long way beneath the guys in front of him!
4- Joe Sewell (4) [4]
Great fielder, very good bat for a shortstop. I don’t fully discount his move to3B at the end, since it seems clear he still could have played shortstop if needed.
5- Bucky Walters (3) [19]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
6- Billy Pierce (8) [7]
Similar to Bucky Walters, but no spiked peak. Bonus value out of the bullpen.
7- Jake Beckley (5) [12]
Very fine career, understated by Win Shares.
8- John McGraw (6) [36]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen. The HoM is short of 1890s infielders.
9- Ken Boyer (7) [13]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader. Could’ve used another productive year or two.
10- Cupid Childs (9) [9]
Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him. Consistently the best at his position, which not many on this ballot can say.
11- George Van Haltren (10) [16]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
12- Bob Johnson (11) [24]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
13- Minnie Minoso (12) [5]
Very similar to Bob Johnson.
14- Frank Chance (13) [60]
Reason #1 that TomH does not appear at the top of the ‘consensus score’ charts. :)
15- Ralph Kiner (14) [6]
Power prime.

Top 10 disclosures: D Redding #17, J Mendez #20 (I’m not a peak/prime guy), Duffy around #50 (he had one great year, and a bunch of decent ones. Was his defense that fabulous?). Yes, if we elect Redding and Mendez, my consensus with the majority will rise!

Bill Freehan – great unrecognized player. Might be ballot-worthy. I need more time than I have made this week to place him. Fortunately, it matters little to this week’s election.
   115. Sean Gilman Posted: August 02, 2006 at 06:51 PM (#2123451)
Interestingly, I read an article many, many years ago that said Boggs did have a .400 season. It just wasn't a continuous season. In some June-to-June context he hit .400 for the rough equivalent of a full season.

I believe Ichiro!'s done that. He was over .400 in 2004 not counting April of that year, IIRC.
   116. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 02, 2006 at 07:38 PM (#2123505)
It's a funny reminder that even though we talk about peak seasons, peaks don't always follow the calendar. Sometimes the top of the curve falls in December.
   117. Sean Gilman Posted: August 02, 2006 at 08:05 PM (#2123547)
Well, it looks like he didn't.

From May 2004 - May 2005, Ichiro! had 272 hits in 703 at bats, for an average of .387, if all my math is correct.

He did hit .429 after the all-star break in 2004. Here's his home/road splits for that year:

home: .338/.385/.399
away: .405/.443/.508

I found one webpage that said no one had hit .400 on the road since 1958, but retrosheet confirms that no one hit .400 on the road that year. Anybody know who the last person to hit .400 on the road for a full season was?
   118. OCF Posted: August 02, 2006 at 08:20 PM (#2123577)
Oh, and the Brewers were better than the Cardinals.

That remark is premature - it's still January or February, 1982. I'll save my replies for next year.
   119. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 02, 2006 at 08:36 PM (#2123595)
home: .338/.385/.399
away: .405/.443/.508


Check out that ISO at home: .061. That's the stuff of legends. Even Lloyd Waner's .077 career ISO is better.... ; )

Then again, Ichiro's road of ISO of .103 screams Henry Cotto.

A friend's father can't quite get his mouth around the pronunciation of Ichiro and refers to him as Ichio instead. Actually I've never fully understood it myself since I'm not very familiar with the rules of Japanese speech. Is the second i an eee sound or is it a schwa as announcers often say it? And what is its relationship to the -ro?
each-ee-roe?
each-er-oh?
each-uh-roe?
   120. Sean Gilman Posted: August 02, 2006 at 08:51 PM (#2123614)
The accent's on the first syllable: ee-chee-roe

ISO is, of course, Ichiro!'s weak link as a hitter. I've never been able to figure out how he manages to hit so few doubles. The obsession with base hits limits his value as a hitter, but it's also what makes him so fascinating and unique a player.
   121. Tiboreau Posted: August 02, 2006 at 09:15 PM (#2123643)
1982 - quite a year for me! Within 3 months, I graduate, get my first real job, get married, move states, and discover Bill James. Oh, and the Brewers were better than the Cardinals.

Quite the year for me too--'tis my birth year!

1982 HoM Ballot

1. rf Hank Aaron (nc)
2. rf Frank Robinson (nc)
3. lf Billy Williams (nc)—No, he didn’t have the peak of Kiner or Keller, but Sweet Swingin’ Billy was no slouch in that regard either. 11 consecutive years with a WARP over 7, and over half of those years were higher than 9, Williams combines a good peak with an excellent prime and good career.
4. sp Jose Mendez (3, 4, 2)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
5. 2b Cupid Childs (5, 10, 3)—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
6. ss Dobie Moore (4, 5, 7)—Since his candidacy is based on his stellar peak (as well as pre-1920 credit) his numbers are underrated due to regression. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
7. sp Bucky Walters (6, 12, 5)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
8. lf Ralph Kiner (7, 6, 15)—Both Win Shares and WARP agree that Kiner & Keller were the best outfielders, peak-wise, available. Below Moore because, while their peak was better, Moore is closer to longer career, good peak infielders than the two peak-centric outfielders are to their counterparts.
9. lf Charlie Keller (8, 7, ob)—See Ralph Kiner.
10. c Bill Freehan (nc)—Two excellent seasons plus a few more solid ones make for a nice peak, the best among catchers according to Win Shares.
11. sp Dizzy Dean (9, 8, 8)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
12. 3b Al Rosen (10, 9, ob)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else. Career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
13. cf Alejandro Oms (11, 11, 4)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
14. sp Rube Waddell (12, 15, 11)—While a real good player at his peak, his character created interesting issues for his teams, evidenced by his disappointing IP totals during that time and his UERA totals over his career.
15. cf Hugh Duffy (13, 13, 6)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.

Required Disclosures:
17. sp Billy Pierce (15, ob, 14)—Takes Eppa Rixey’s old spot on my ballot; while never great (according to the uber-stats), was always solid. Rixey had more career value, but Pierce’s peak was better, squeezing more into a shorter career. Very similar to Whitey Ford, and is also underrated due to usage patterns.
27. 2b Nellie Fox (ob)—Two real good years followed by several slightly better than average ones. The opposite of Larry Doyle as a player, yet falls only one spot behind him.
29. sp Dick Redding (ob)—A pre-1920s Negro League candidate about whom little is known. Going by the translations on his thread, Cannonball would be much lower then this; I give him a boost considering the nature of the numbers in his era, but he is still primarily a career candidate.
30. lf Minnie Minoso (ob)—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory.
33. ss Joe Sewell (ob)—He had a solid prime, dominating in an era of weak shortstops; however, his peak isn't quite as strong as I'd like and his best competition was banned from the majors. Similar in value to Bob Elliott according to WS.
52. 1b Jake Beckley (ob)—Yes, he had a long career, he just wasn't good enough in any one season for my taste.
   122. OCF Posted: August 02, 2006 at 09:29 PM (#2123664)
Frank Chance ... Reason #1 that TomH does not appear at the top of the ‘consensus score’ charts. :)

Actually, in your case I'd say Reason #1 is not voting for Mendez, who is the top-of-the-backlog guy.
   123. TomH Posted: August 02, 2006 at 10:18 PM (#2123740)
yeah, if I had a 21-man ballot, he'd sneak on and bump me up I 'spose
   124. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 02, 2006 at 10:45 PM (#2123776)
You need to relax. He said he thought your ranking was nuts. He didn't say you are nuts. Though you may well be, if you keep harping on such a harmless comment.

Thanks, Dr. Phil.
   125. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 02, 2006 at 10:46 PM (#2123779)
Jake Beckley = Sliced Bread, now that's ad hominem! Pass the peanut butter.

:-D
   126. EricC Posted: August 02, 2006 at 11:23 PM (#2123849)
1982 ballot. Getting it a little earlier than usual, because I'm leaving tomorrow to head up north for the weekend. Will stop by Cooperstown on the way back to see the new plaques.

1. Hank Aaron - In the last 30 years, surpassed only by Bonds.
2. Frank Robinson - Only Ruth, a fraction of Musial, and Aaron top him among RF.
3. Wally Schang - When Schang retired in 1931, he was the major league career leader in WS. He did not earn this distinction lightly: His total of 245 is still 12th all-time among retired ML catchers; the AL was the stronger league during his time; and in-season catcher usage during his time was low- by my estimates, about 10 to 15 percent less than that for post-1930 catchers. HoM voters take changes in pitcher usage over time into account. Why don't they do that for changes in catcher usage?
4. Bill Freehan - Multiple years of all-star quality play and durability in a ratings system that likes catchers; Freehan and Torre are the best C of their time.
5. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL; very consistent.
6. Orlando Cepeda - Strength of the NL during his time helps his case.
7. Billy Williams - HoM quality corner outfielder.
8. Norm Cash - Cash was consistently very good for a long time; the kind of player that my system likes. And 1961 doesn't hurt.
9. Jose Mendez - Reputation and statistical evidence that he had a HoM-worthy peak. I see similarities to Lefty Gomez, with the patches of brilliance.
10. Frank Howard - By Win Shares, 297 WS/25.4 WS/162 in 7353 PA for a 60s player, very deserving. Although I don't use WARP, WARP3 admittedly doesn't make him look like a sure thing. A great hitter who played in pitchers parks in a pitchers era, and who, along with Cepeda and Cash, should not be quickly buried.
11. Charlie Keller - My guesstimate is that his monster peak would have been sustained during the war years, making him a viable "peak" candidate a la Jennings in the past or Garciaparra in the future.
12. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers, behind Blyleven The factoid does overstate his greatness a little, because he pitched in a high run-scoring time, but his rate stats show that he was still great in the second half of his career, despite the low IP/season.
13. Lefty Gomez - Very good to dominant, in a strong league, and at a time when dominance was rare.
14. Gil Hodges - The best or among the best 1B throughout his prime in the strong 50s NL.
15. Sol White - Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to ever know if this rating is accurate, but the sketchy record available show a full career, most of it at 2B, but several years at SS, with a good batting average.

16-21: Fox, Boyer, Berger, Kiner, Elliott, Minoso
26. Pierce; 29. Redding; 36. Waddell
57. Childs; 60. Duffy; 64. Pinson; 70. Beckley; 71. Willie Davis; 88. Van Haltren
   127. Brent Posted: August 03, 2006 at 12:17 AM (#2123996)
1982 Ballot:

An outstanding class of newly eligible plyaers. Aaron and Robinson, of course, are # 1 and 2 and enter my personal hall of merit. Williams waits on deck and Freehan's in the hole.

1. Henry Aaron – 17 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 43 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). MVP for 1957, placed in the top 10 in MVP voting 13 times, 3 Gold Gloves. Top decile of the HoM. (PHoM 1982)

2. Frank Robinson – 16 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 43 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). MVP for 1961 and 1966, placed in the top 10 in MVP voting 10 times, World Series MVP for 1966, ROY for 1956, Gold Glove for 1958. Top quartile of the HoM. (PHoM 1982)

3. Billy Williams – 9 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 35. ROY for 1961, placed in top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. Like Killebrew, Kaline, and Clemente, he'll comfortably fit into the third quartile of the HoM.

4. Bill Freehan – 5 Gold Gloves, placed in top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. Although he wasn't Berra, Campanella, or Dickey, Freehan is pretty clearly the best eligible catcher. An underappreciated player, I hope he'll eventually be elected.

5. Orestes Miñoso – 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). He won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. As I observed on my 1978 ballot, in his prime Miñoso was not far behind Clemente. (PHoM 1970)

6. Phil Rizzuto – Great defensive shortstop and an above-average hitter for the position. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 26-28 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

7. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

8. Ken Boyer – 8 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 33 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). Five Gold Glove awards. MVP for 1964; four times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1975)

9. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. From 1920-26 with the Monarchs, he was 26-12, 2.70 ERA, and hero of the 1924 Negro World Series. (PHoM 1938)

10. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). From 1921–29 (ages 26 to 34), he averaged an MLE OPS+ of 138 while playing center field with excellent range. Check out the Oms thread. (PHoM 1967)

11. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

12. Nellie Fox - 9 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 34 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). “A” defensive second baseman; 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. MVP for 1959; six times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1979)

13. Elston Howard – Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964. (PHoM 1977)

14. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

15. Dobie Moore – – “A superb fielder with outstanding range and a terrific arm...An outstanding hitter, he hit for average and could also hit the long ball.” —James A. Riley.

Near misses:

16-20. Cravath (PHoM 1976), Dean (PHoM 1958), Redding (PHoM 1976), F Howard, Cepeda
21–25. Keller, Grimes (PHoM 1940), Newcombe, Leach (PHoM 1932), Bresnahan

Other consensus top 10:

Joe Sewell – Among shortstops, I prefer Rizzuto, who was a superb fielder and an all-star quality shortstop through age 35 (Sewell's last year at SS was age 29) and Moore, who hit better and fielded at least as well as Sewell over a similar length career.

Ralph Kiner – ranks behind Cravath, F Howard, Cepeda who had similar peaks and longer careers, and also behind Keller, who had a better peak in an even shorter career.

Billy Pierce – as explained here, I think Newcombe ranks ahead of Pierce as the best eligible 1950s pitcher.

Dick Redding – slips off my ballot this time; he'll return.

Cupid Childs – another short career, high peak candidate; I have him ranked behind Fox and Gilliam, who had longer careers and decent peaks as well.

Other new arrivals:

In addition to the four new arrivals at the top my ballot, another four had HoM talent but for various reasons fell short. Injuries were the problem for Oliva (ranked # 39), Petrocelli (just misses my top 100), and Tommy Davis. I'll always remember Davis as the young, athletic batting champion of the first team I rooted for—the 1962-63 Dodgers. For his teammate, Willie Davis (ranked # 76), the impediment apparently was in adapting to the enlarged strike zone that was in effect from 1963–68. If Willie Davis's career had simply filled in a typical prime between his age 23 performance (1962) and his age 29–34 performances (1969–74), he would have easily qualified as a HoMer.
   128. Howie Menckel Posted: August 03, 2006 at 12:28 AM (#2124021)
1982 ballot, our (and my) 85th

Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

1. HANK AARON - Incredibly, top 10 OPS every year from 1955-73, with 15 of those being top 5 finishes. Also top 10 in HRs 18 times and was top 5 in 14 of those tries. Top 5 in runs for 12 straight years, 1956-67, and 17 times overall. Also 16 top 10s in RBI, eight top 10s in SBs (all in the 1960s), 14 top 5s in intentional walks, and a 21-time All-Star. Also, .... eh, this is probably enough to convince any holdouts ;)
2. FRANK ROBINSON - Top 10 in OPS 16 times, and top 6 every year from 1959-71. 15 top 10s in Hrs and 13 in RBI. A dozen times top 10 in walks. Was top 7 in steals five times. Underrated stat - top 5 in hit by pitch 16 times, and a 7-time league leader. Surprisingly, only a 12-time All-Star. But that's ok.

3. RALPH KINER - His competitiveness with Kaline over his top 9 years and even with Killebrew for a long stretch helps keep him the top holdover slot again this year. Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
4. JAKE BECKLEY - Kiner finally overtook him on my ballot 2 yrs ago.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (it was a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially newer voters.
5. CUPID CHILDS - This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support. Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better.
6. BILLY PIERCE - Bob Gibson-lite, if you ask me. Put up a good fight with Marichal in recent years, but the Dominican Dandy's seasonal durability won the day. Pierce's leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.
7. BILLY WILLIAMS - A little conservative, perhaps, but Kiner crunches him on prime and unlike Beckley he looks an awful lot like a lot of fellow ballot candidates. I do suspect his durability is a bit underrated, though. I'm sure he's a HOMer, but I like a few other guys just a little better.
8. BOB ELLIOTT - If you haven't examined him in a while, or ever, get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
9. GAVVY CRAVATH - Good to see more discussion of him, but I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
10. BILL FREEHAN - Wow, a tough one. Two spectacular seasons (1967-68) and four other very good ones. 1974 is a little odd; the 137 OPS+ looks great but he is a 1B-C that year. The 105-106 OPSs in 1969-70 are good for a catcher, too, and he gets a fielding bonus even by catcher standards.11 times an All-Star, a big number. Could move up.
11. ORLANDO CEPEDA - This next group is remarkably close; I hope to find some way to differentiate them. Cepeda was a textbook All-Star hitter for his day, and unlike Kaline and especially Clemente he was a stud from Day 1. Seems to have been a good 1B in his day (I mostly just remember him as an end-career DH with the Red Sox). At this point, not penalizing him for refusing to move positions to help his team - for this fact, Derek Jeter is grateful, lol.
12. MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but I'm disappointed to see that such negligible Negro Leagues credit is due. I thought he was a better player there than we discovered. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
13. BOB JOHNSON - Moved back onto my ballot a few yrs ago after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
14. RUBE WADDELL - Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. I still think he could have had some direct impact in costing his team some wins with his 'personality quirks,' but his overall effectiveness is impressive. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, never led his league in IP and only in the top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But I'll give him this spot, at least.
15. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot 2 yrs ago, still hanging on. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.

NEWBIES
TONY OLIVA - I had hopes that Oliva might be another Kiner, dimly remembering him play. But the stats don't back it up. Most similar to Minoso, but not as good even without factoring in fielding or Minoso extra credit. No chance.
WILLIE DAVIS - A below-average hitter for an OF for much of his career; only surpasses league average with baserunning and fielding (he cleared 130 OPS only once, and that year he missed 33 games). Not a serious candidate.

TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
DICK REDDING - Big drop the last 5 years and for now slips off the ballot; the new stats suggest that he wasn't the long-career workhorse that some of us had believed. For me, that's very costly. But think about how many Negro League hitters we have elected/are considering. This still may be the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way, and I now guess the HOM won't, either.
JOSE MENDEZ - I reread his whole thread several yrs ago (it's long). I am satisfied as to Mendez being able to pitch to a level of a HOMer at his best, but there's not quite enough there for me. Still better than most pitchers available, and could someday grab a No. 15 spot, but he doesn't quite rate with me right now. Sorry, Jose.
HUGH DUFFY - Win Shares gets him all wrong, and eventually they'll fix it. Excellent fielder, but geesh, he's not Ozzie Smith. As noted on the discussion thread, a non-WS look at the numbers leaves you wondering how he gets so many votes here.
JOE SEWELL - I prefer great-hitting SSs, or long-career ones, or great fielding ones at least. Sewell is a HOVG SS-3B.


OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Our first DHer on a ballot. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135.
NELLIE FOX - Three years ago was my first time voting for him since - ever? But that core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends. Will be back on my ballot.
NORM CASH - My gripe is that he often had 100 fewer PA (adjusting for pre-expansion guys) than the competition each year. Good 1B and very reliable when in the lineup, but he's the first one to really confound my OPS+ lists. While they're just a get-started point anyway, in Cash's case I needed to make more adjustments than usual. Still might fight his way onto the ballot someday, however.
PETE BROWNING - Ran out of room for this big slugger, too. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar nearly a decade ago, but fell just off the ballot 4 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but when the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15 at times.
   129. jimd Posted: August 03, 2006 at 12:31 AM (#2124026)
Where is the latest post of HoM players by playing decade or birth year?

TomH, I posted my raw birth year data on the 1981 results thread.
From that you can aggregate it any way you like.
   130. Rick A. Posted: August 03, 2006 at 12:32 AM (#2124029)
PHOM
Hank Aaron
Frank Robinson

1982 Ballot
1. Hank Aaron - Elected PHOM in 1982
2. Frank Robinson - Elected PHOM in 1982
3. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
5. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
6. Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
7. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
8. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
9. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
10. Hugh Duffy – Great defender Best of the 1890's CF's eligible. Elected PHOM in 1970
11. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
12. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
13. Bill Freehan - Best catcher on the ballot.
14. Ralph Kiner – Incredible peak. Elected PHOM in 1971.
15. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972

New candidates
Billy Williams Just misses my ballot. Very close to Minoso. Both should be PHOM in the backlog years.
Willie Davis Long career that was above average, but lacks peak. Like Pinson better.
Tony Oliva Neither Peak nor career are long enough

Required Disclosures
Minnie Minoso Just misses my ballot.
Joe Sewell Not as good as Doyle, Monroe, Stephens or Rizzuto.
Billy Pierce I see him as HOVG, not HOM.

Off the ballot
16-20 Dean,Roush,Oms,EHoward,Bresnahan
21-25 Minoso,Williams,Cravath,Waddell,Monroe
26-30 Mays,Fox,FHoward,Newcombe,Johnson
31-35 Elliott,Trouppe,Doyle,Boyer,McGraw
36-40 Leach,FJones,Wilson,Keller,WCooper
41-45 Stephens,Matlock,Rizzuto,Cepeda,Poles
46-50 HSmith,Easter,Tiernan,Winters,Rosen
51-55 Bond,Schang,ACooper,VanHaltren,Ryan
56-60 DiMaggio,Traynor,Pesky,Sewell,Clarkson
61-65 Taylor,Scales,Chance,Pierce,Byrd
66-70 Berger,Fournier,Cash,Burns,Lundy
71-75 Beckley,Dunlap,Griffin,NAllen,Long
   131. Rick A. Posted: August 03, 2006 at 12:33 AM (#2124031)
PHOM
Hank Aaron
Frank Robinson

1982 Ballot
1. Hank Aaron - Elected PHOM in 1982
2. Frank Robinson - Elected PHOM in 1982
3. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
5. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
6. Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
7. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
8. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
9. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
10. Hugh Duffy – Great defender Best of the 1890's CF's eligible. Elected PHOM in 1970
11. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
12. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
13. Bill Freehan - Best catcher on the ballot.
14. Ralph Kiner – Incredible peak. Elected PHOM in 1971.
15. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972

New candidates
Billy Williams Just misses my ballot. Very close to Minoso. Both should be PHOM in the backlog years.
Willie Davis Long career that was above average, but lacks peak. Like Pinson better.
Tony Oliva Neither Peak nor career are long enough

Required Disclosures
Minnie Minoso Just misses my ballot.
Joe Sewell Not as good as Doyle, Monroe, Stephens or Rizzuto.
Billy Pierce I see him as HOVG, not HOM.

Off the ballot
16-20 Dean,Roush,Oms,EHoward,Bresnahan
21-25 Minoso,Williams,Cravath,Waddell,Monroe
26-30 Mays,Fox,FHoward,Newcombe,Johnson
31-35 Elliott,Trouppe,Doyle,Boyer,McGraw
36-40 Leach,FJones,Wilson,Keller,WCooper
41-45 Stephens,Matlock,Rizzuto,Cepeda,Poles
46-50 HSmith,Easter,Tiernan,Winters,Rosen
51-55 Bond,Schang,ACooper,VanHaltren,Ryan
56-60 DiMaggio,Traynor,Pesky,Sewell,Clarkson
61-65 Taylor,Scales,Chance,Pierce,Byrd
66-70 Berger,Fournier,Cash,Burns,Lundy
71-75 Beckley,Dunlap,Griffin,NAllen,Long
   132. Rick A. Posted: August 03, 2006 at 12:34 AM (#2124033)
Sorry for the double post
   133. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 03, 2006 at 01:18 AM (#2124160)
Sorry for the double post

The least you could have done was have posted a revised ballot like others have done this week. ;-)
   134. Rusty Priske Posted: August 03, 2006 at 01:35 PM (#2124807)
Revise your #75, just to say you did. :)
   135. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 03, 2006 at 03:49 PM (#2124977)
Revise your #75, just to say you did. :)

:-)
   136. andrew siegel Posted: August 03, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#2125034)
In the middle of some major reevaluations. Long ballot next "year."
(1) Aaron (new)--Quite good.
(2) Robinson (new)--Him too.
(3)Keller (3rd)--One notch better for his prime than guys like Moore, Sisler, Kiner, and Berger.
(4) Mendez (4th)--Very similar to Marichal (also see Waddell, Rube + bat + reliability).
(5) Cravath (5th)--My gradual reconsideration of all old candidates shows that I dropped the ball with him. Great--though scattered prime--and 300-plus WS.
(6) Freehan (new)-- Almost identical to Charlie Bennett.
(7) Williams (new)--Conservative ranking. Very good, but there are many long career OF's during his era.
(8) Sewell (6th)--Feel like I've been underrating the defense a bit.
(9) Roush (7th)--Solid CF who always ranked in the top 10 in his league offensively. Solid prime; solid career. Missed a lot of games or he'd be in already.
(10) Cash (10th)--Doesn't feel like an HoMer but, his OWP is so high that even when you adjust for league and playing time he had about the same offensive value as Cepeda; defense puts him ahead.
(11) Pierce (11th)--Compares well to other recently- and soon-to-be-elected pitchers.
(12) Minoso (8th)--Has the prime; negro league credit gives him the career. Ranks very highly among 1950s position players. Drops a bit as I slightly downgrade OF's.
(13) Tommy Bridges (nr/20's)--Moves way up. Very good for 13 straight years.
(14) Bob Johnson (nr/18th)--Adding in minor league credit puts him on ballot.
(15) Leach (9th)--Lots of All-Star seasons by every metric, though never an MVP candidate. Weak league too. OF yeas downgraded this year.

Redding's numbers don't impress me; Kiner only had 4 years that scream superstar--that's just not enough; Duffy and Childs are PHoM, but have fallen a few spots off my ballot.
   137. rico vanian Posted: August 03, 2006 at 04:55 PM (#2125085)
Hybrid voter- I'm big on career and peak with a side order of black ink. I don't give alot of credit generally to the "what-ifs" (ie: military, injury, alien abduction, etc.



1) Hank Aaron- It was a tough choice between Bad Henry and Cleon Jones, but Aaron had a bit more career value.
2) Frank Robinson – Inner circle greatness.
3) Nellie Fox - 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
4) Ralph Kiner - 7 home run titles in a row. I see a lot of attention to players who had a few good years and how deserving they are to be HOM’ers, but jeez, this guy led the league in Home Runs 7 straight years! Mega peak.
5) Ernie Lombardi - 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
6) Chuck Klein - 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
7) Burleigh Grimes - 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
8) Pie Trayner - .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
9) Billy Williams – A consistent and long very good to almost great career.
10) Luis Aparicio - nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
11) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
12) Rube Waddell- The Randy Johnson of the 20th centuries' first decade. Randy just doesn't have a sense of humor (but might be just as insane as Rube was).
13) Phil Rizzuto - SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
14) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
15) Jake Beckley - almost 3000 hits.

close but no cigar-

16) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick. Will be top 15 next year.
17) Ken Boyer -. MVP. 7 all star games. Better hitter than Brooks Robinson and almost as good in the field.
18) Jose Mendez- So much of his career is anecdotal, it's hard to quantify. But how many years did he truly excel?
19) Mickey Welch
20) Joe Sewell - Just misses, needed a couple of more seasons.
21) Cannonball Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for argaubly the NL team of the 50's.
23) Bill Freehan – I did not realize how good he was until now. Might go higher in the future.
24) Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
25) Orlando Cepeda-
26) Billy Pierce - Very good, not great.
27) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
28) Cupid Childs – Short career, not much black or grey ink.
29) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
30) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.


No way newbies

Fritz Peterson – Deserves a mention because of the whole wife swapping thing with Mike Kekich
Rico Petrocelli - Suave

<b>
   138. Mike Webber Posted: August 03, 2006 at 07:32 PM (#2125542)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) HANK AARON
2) FRANK ROBINSON - If everyone that was retired for at least 5 seasons were on the ballot, then Aaron would be on my ballot in election 1 until inducted. Robinson wouldn’t make the top 15, but would make the ballot on the 5th to 7th election cycle (assuming two electees per year).
3) BILLY WILLIAMS - One of the top 100 major leaguers of all-time, comfortably above the in/out line.
4) EDD ROUSH –314 Win Shares, 3 MVP type seasons, excellent fielder at a key defensive position.
5) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
6) BILL FREEHAN – The best catcher that I am not absolutely sure is HOM worthy. Strange, but if you made a list of the top 20 catchers ever, where would you draw your positively IN line? I bet Freehan is within one or two of where you draw the line. Firmly on the bubble.
7) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
8) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
9) MINNIE MINOSO – Paired with Kiner, but just behind him.
10) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
11) GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares. Even so, his career totals keep him ahead Duffy and the 19th century guys.
12) BILLY PIERCE - Re-weighed Pierce, Carl Mays and Jose Mendez this week, and I think maybe Billy edges Mays.
13) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
14) KEN BOYER – Last week I slotted him behind Cepeda, and it seems like that isn’t quite right.
15) ORLANDO CEPEDA - 300+ Win Shares, MVP type seasons, deep position with no defensive bonus. Big seasons keep him ahead of Norm Cash.


Disclosures – Jose Mendez, Dick Redding – difficult to measure, but I think Mendez is third among eligible pitchers – Redding slightly further down.
Joe Sewell – I think Chris Cobb is on target with this one, ranks behind Maranville and Long and possibly Vern Stephens.

Duffy is behind Roush and Van Haltren but in my top 25.
Cupid Childs – 2nd base may be the deepest position – LF and 2b with CF close behind those two.

Newbies – Oliva surprised me, I thought his arguments would be stronger. Petrocelli, Davis bros., and Harper aren’t really that close.
   139. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: August 03, 2006 at 11:22 PM (#2125960)
1. Henry Aaron: I don't think I need to say much.
2. Frank Robinson: See above.
3. Ralph Kiner: An amazing peak, on a par with the gentlemen residing north.
4. Jose Mendez: To me, the best pitcher on the ballot and it isnt particularly close.
5. Billy Williams: Should sneak in during the upcoming backlog elections.
6. Minnie Minoso: Again, maybe a guy I'm overvaluing, but I like him a bit better than the Duffy's, Van Haltren's, and Keller's of the world.
7. Joe Sewell: Another guy that should get in in the mid 80's. Great numbers for a SS.
8. Billy Pierce: His 1955 is the stuff dreams are made of.
9. Hugh Duffy: Made his teams better. A old-time Derek Jeter, if you will. Reasonably good glove.
10. Bill Freehan: Maybe too low? Can't justify him higher than 8 or lower than here though. A top flight catcher with the glove, had some fantastic seasons with the stick, too.
11. Ken Boyer: Great glove, not too shabby at the plate, I have hope he might get in, but I can't rank him above the 10 guys ahead of him.
12. Rube Waddell: What could have been. Awesome at his peak. Pretty good prime. With more IP, he's up there with Mendez.
13. Charlie Keller: Poor man's Kiner. Close to Kiner with war credit, from what I've read, but I'm not sure how real the war credit is.
14. Cupid Childs: Another guy I hope we squeeze in. Fantastic early career, not a bad glove.
15. Dobie Moore: Did a little re-evaluating, and I like him right here with Childs. I may need to do some more due diligence here.
16. George Van Haltren: Not much of a peak, but a solid career. Didn't hang on for counting stats, was consistently above average.
17. Pete Browning: Good peak gets a discount due to competition, but not so much that Pete doesn't get a spot on my ballot. Loses spots due to the quality of this year's class, and my re-evaluation of Dobie Moore.
18. Jake Beckley: Sorry Karlmagnus, this is as high as I can justify him for now. A peak of any kind would have him in the top 10.
19. Dick Redding: Him being here speaks more the quality of the eligibles than anything else. Will move into the top 12 in some of our lean years, I think.
20. Nellie Fox: Great glove, underrated bat. Good guy at 20.
21 - 30: Charley Jones, Norm Cash, Dizzy Dean, Gavvy Cravath, Roger Bresnahan, Addie Joss, Ben Taylor, Frank Howard, Chuck Klein
   140. Jeff M Posted: August 04, 2006 at 02:58 AM (#2126508)
1982 Ballot

1. Aaron, Hank -- He had a hammer.

2. Robinson, Frank – I don’t think there’s any real debate about whether he should be ahead of Aaron, nor whether he is a first ballot HoMer.

3. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

4. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

5. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

6. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

7. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon in my system.

8. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on certain career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

9. Cravath, Gavvy – A re-evaluation, and a victory for Joe Dimino.

10. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be. I can’t really read Joe Dimino’s chart on the pitching thread, but based on the comments, it appears Waddell comes out fine there too.

11. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position, I’ve given him the higher spot.

12. Pierce, Billy – I think he is just on the wrong side of the HoM line, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

13. Boyer, Ken – A heck of a lot better than I thought.

14. Moore, Dobie -- I’ve never had a good handle on him. He’s been lurking off ballot for awhile. I looked him again and gave him a slight bump, resulting in his appearance on the ballot.

15. Williams, Billy – I was really surprised he didn’t fare better, until I looked at those park factors, which are some of the highest we’ve seen for serious candidates. If you park adjust, his black ink drops to 0 and his grey ink is cut in half. In 18 seasons he makes the OBP top ten exactly 1 time, and the SLG top ten only 4 times. He’s top ten in RBI and runs only six times in 18 years. Sim scores (even the non-park adjusted ones) produce guys like Andre Dawson, Dwight Evans, Harold Baines, Dave Parker and Tony Perez, none of whom is a slam dunk HoMer in my book, although one or two might be. His adjusted hitting numbers are better than Duffy’s, but Duffy was a center fielder and competes with Williams pretty well on the hitting side.


Required Disclosure(s):

Mendez, Jose – He’s not in never never land like Redding. I’m committed to giving him another look…eventually, but he’s got a ways to go.

Kiner, Ralph – I’ve still got him as a short-career, weak-defending .274/.393/.539 guy. Wish he had played a couple more years.

Redding, Dick – I’ve said all I’m going to say about a player who is outside my top 100.

Childs, Cupid -- I’m always concerned when a guy who has been eligible for almost a century jumps in one week from #16 to #9 in the overall voting, without any new information coming to light. I’d like for him to be higher, on the theory that John Murphy must not be wrong. :) But I’ve gerrymandered his numbers for years and never been able to get him higher than meeting approximately 2/3 of my requirements. That doesn’t get him on the ballot, but rather 5-6 spots off it.
   141. fra paolo Posted: August 04, 2006 at 10:43 AM (#2126653)
1) Henry Aaron.
2) Frank Robinson.
3) Edd Roush. When he retired he was the 2d-best centrefielder in National League history. Overshadowed by his AL counterparts.
4) Ken Boyer. Best balance of batting and fielding at 3b I've found so far, ranked up here because of his Win Share total among fielding infielders on my ballot.
5) Joe Sewell. Best SS in the AL during the 1920s.
6) Cupid Childs. Amazing stat - he averaged 9 FR per prime season, while playing a lot of the time without those newfangled gloves.
7) Orlando Cepeda. By virtue of Win Shares and height of prime, he's first at first at the moment.
8) Rube Waddell. With pitchers, I've become less comfortable with my "quality over quantity" approach. But for the moment Waddell's got the most of the former.
9) Ralph Kiner. I'd have him higher, but he's held back by two high-grade corner outfielders.
10) Charley Jones. He remains a dominant hitter in his era, but he's coming under pressure for his place on the ballot as I look more to Batting + Fielding Runs for estimating quality.
11) Hugh Duffy. His stock is in decline, but currently is propped up by playing for pennant winners. Four of 'em.
12) Elston Howard. He's probably the only player on my ballot who has secured his place entirely owing to his fielding prowess (as a catcher).
13) Nellie Fox. I have a lot of trouble working up enthusiasm for his candidacy, but he's got 304 Win Shares and 154 HoF Monitor points.
14) Bucky Walters. He's got a good high prime, one that doesn't benefit as much from the war years as I thought. He's a little bit more dominant than Pierce, although Pierce is better on my counting measures over a prime of the same length.
15) Pie Traynor. Best 3b in NL history when he retired.
   142. fra paolo Posted: August 04, 2006 at 10:44 AM (#2126654)
Top Tens off ballot
José Mendez. I've decided to treat him like Cravath, regarding his Cuban League years as an add-on, so he's got to earn his place via his Negro League experience. He's still under review.
Minnie Minoso. I don't think he's peaky enough for me at the moment.
Billy Pierce. Lost out to Bucky Walters on the head-to-head.
Cannonball Dick Redding. I moved him behind Mendez after comments on my 1981 preliminary. I'll be taking another look at these two.

Non-returnees
Rabbit Maranville. This time, I devalued the role of WARP3 in my comparisons. the air came out of his balloon enough to push him off the ballot. Fox is in the same peril.

Esteemed newcomers
Billy Williams. He's not very peaky, and he's got a short prime. Mr Consistent, though. He'll have a hard time making my top 15.
Bill Freehan. I had my flabbers gasted here. He didn't put together the kind of prime that would satisfy me. And where did I grow up? Detroit 1961-76. Specifically, I penalize his 1969-70 with the bat. It's all very Rizzuto-esque. Like Norm Cash and the Yankee SS, he'll never be on my ballot.
Tony Oliva. He came out better than I expected. I won't be surprised if he makes a subsequent ballot, but this time the competition for my corner OF slots was too strong.
Rico Petrocelli. I rated him as a SS, which flattered him, but not enough to put him on the ballot.
Willie Davis. Short prime + low peak = no vote.
Mike Cuellar. He had a low but LONG prime in a short career, which has got me thinking about how to rate pitching. I don't necessarily think Cuellar is HoM-worthy, but consistency is hard to come by in pitchers, and a reliable pitching staff over several years is probably the Holy Grail of all teams.
   143. DL from MN Posted: August 04, 2006 at 02:00 PM (#2126779)
> regarding his Cuban League years as an add-on, so he's got to earn his place via his
> Negro League experience

This is a bit ridiculous. For one, Mendez is Cuban and would probably prefer to play in the Cuban league. For another, the Cuban league may have been more lucrative and was definitely more stable than the barnstorming black teams of the time. There wasn't even a real Negro League until 1920. Even then there was hardly a balanced league schedule. Finally, the best evidence of Mendez greatness was his dominance of high level competition in black-white all-star contests and in black championship games which you are excluding.
   144. fra paolo Posted: August 04, 2006 at 03:19 PM (#2126866)
If you want to change how I'm going to assess Mendez' career, instead of calling my thinking ridiculous you'd do better to find the date when John McGraw decided he wanted to sign him. Until I find that out, I can't effectively determine at what point he was excluded from the Majors by racism. Prior to that point, he's a foreign ballplayer. Or are we allowed to vote for Japanese now?
   145. Ardo Posted: August 04, 2006 at 03:36 PM (#2126884)
1982 Ballot

Each player has their 79-80-81 ballot placement in parentheses. Last year, we elected Bob Gibson (1) and Harmon Killebrew (2).

1. Hank Aaron (new) - The most home runs, RBI, and total bases ever.

2. Frank Robinson (new) - The only MVP winner in both leagues.

3. Jose Mendez (2-3-3) - More like Sandy Koufax than Wes Ferrell on the mound, even if he couldn't hit as well as Ferrell. He dominated the best available competition.

4. Bill Freehan (new) - 11 All-Star Games played. Freehan is clearly the best eligible catcher, despite being overlooked by Cooperstown.

5. Billy Pierce (5-7-5) - He deserves leverage credit, on top of an already strong resume.

6. Wally Schang (4-6-4) - *His BBRef page says, "The ONLY great offensive catcher of the World War I era, and solid defensively as well. His greatness has been recognized in the BaseballEvolution.com Hall of Fame." *No offense meant to Louis Santop.

7. Charley Jones (3-5-7) - All positions, all eras. The only glaring NA-era omission.

8. Norm Cash (new-8-6) - Like Pierce, Cash had the One Big Year, and a 139 career OPS+ coupled with consistently excellent 1B defense is nothing to sneeze at.

9. Quincy Trouppe (6-9-8) - a half-notch below Simmons or Torre among "slugging catchers who played other positions".

10. Joe Sewell (8-12-10) - The best available SS. The latest research on Dobie Moore shows that Moore was slightly worse than Sewell in the same time span.

11. Ken Boyer (7-11-9) - a consecutive peak, entirely at 3B, in a strong league (1958-64). His rapid decline keeps him out of Santo territory.

12. Nellie Fox (12-13-11) - a full grade better with the bat than Mazeroski, and nearly as skilled with the glove.

13. Orlando Cepeda (new-15-13) - peak-a-licious career shape sneaks him onto my ballot.

14. Dick Redding (10-14-12) - see my comments in his own thread.

15. Rabbit Maranville (14-x-14) - very high peak defensive value and cumulative career value. He has become a ballot fixture in quiet years.

16-20: Edd Roush, Billy Williams, Ralph Kiner, Minnie Minoso, Jake Beckley.
21-25: Willie Davis, Elston Howard, Adolfo Luque, Larry Doyle, Pete Browning.

Call me out on Billy Williams if you wish, but a 132 OPS+ and mediocre LF play doesn't impress me.
   146. sunnyday2 Posted: August 04, 2006 at 04:03 PM (#2126922)
The "foreign" careers of players who played in the U.S. are part of the record and have been for...well, forever.

I would defer to Joe as to whether voters are allowed to disregard those parts of the player's record that are, er, "incovenient." How much or how little to value them is up to you (e.g. Cravath's MiL record) but they do exist and we are encouraged not to pretend they don't.

My understanding is that Ichiro's (!) Japanese record will count, but we will not be voting on Saduharu Oh(!?), e.g.

Mendez is analogous to Ichiro, not Oh. Check the Mendez thread, I would be pretty sure it's all in there.
   147. DL from MN Posted: August 04, 2006 at 04:03 PM (#2126923)
Mendez played ball in America in 1908 with the Brooklyn Royal Giants. If you want to exclude his spring 1908 Cuban season on the "foreign player" grounds I suppose that makes sense, but that's it. I have Mendez off the ballot because being as good as Mathewson from 1908-1914 just isn't enough to make this year's top 15. I'm giving him a little credit for the post-injury career as a utility infielder and (excellent) spot starter but not much.
   148. jimd Posted: August 04, 2006 at 11:32 PM (#2127581)
Ballot for 1982

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) H. AARON -- !

2) F. ROBINSON -- !

3) B. WILLIAMS -- Yes, he is similar to Minoso, but slightly better for slightly longer. The difference in ranking is mostly due to NL vs AL. Prime 1962-73. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) 1972; WARP adds 1963, 1964; WS adds 1965 in RF. Other star seasons include 1962, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1973.

4) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

8) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

9) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

11) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

12) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

13) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

14) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

15) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

16) N. CASH -- Ranks ahead of Cepeda, but slips off to make room for Billy Williams. Prime 1961-71. Best player candidate 1961. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1961. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1971. HM in 1969.

17) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he's ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

18) D. DEAN -- He's just missing this thin ballot. Prime 1932-36. Best player candidate 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star in 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

19) R. KINER -- If he was the best LF during those years, he'd be high on the ballot. Prime 1947-54. Star seasons include 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951. HM in 1952, 1953, 1954.

20) J. BECKLEY -- Not quite. Long low prime but never close to the best player in the league. Prime 1893-1900. 1st-team MLB All-Star in 1900. WARP adds 1894, 1901; WS adds 1893. HM in 1890, 1896, 1899, 1904.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Billy Pierce, Rube Waddell,
23-24) Dizzy Trout, Joe Tinker,
25-26) Bill Hutchison, Hugh Duffy,
27-28) Dick Redding, Edd Roush,
29-30) Willie Davis, Tommy Leach,
31-32) Bill Freehan, Nellie Fox,
   149. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 05, 2006 at 02:27 AM (#2128107)
1982 Ballot

1. Hank Aaron
2. Frank Robinson
3. Jake Beckley
4. Bob Johnson
5. Minnie Minoso
6. Norm Cash
7. Charley Jones
8. Ralph Kiner
9. George Van Haltren
10. Ernie Lombardi
11. Jimmy Ryan
12. Dutch Leonard
13. Frank Howard
14. Quiny Trouppe
15. Tommy Bridges

***
The next fifteen:

16. Billy Williams: he has the long-time very good-ness that I like, and his peak was plenty high.
17. Rube Waddell
18. Orlando Cepeda
19. Gavy Cravath
20. Sam Rice
21. Burleigh Grimes
22. Wally Schang
23. Bob Elliott
24. Billy Pierce
25. Dizzy Trout: length and success are a nice combination.
26. Jack Quinn: Pitching to that age, especially in that era, is still quite an accomplishment, and he was very good.
27. Eddie Cicotte: put his seasons in a different order, and he superficially looks better. But he was never worse than average, often far above, and it seems like knuckleballers are more prone to having isolated disaster years. Plus, his career ended because he was banned from the game; he was 36, but wasn't slowing down.
28. Tony Oliva: an outstanding performer, but "only" for parts of eleven seasons. Two more of his 1973 might push him up a slot. He might have been a little older, but then again, he might not have.
29. Ken Boyer: if he had a little more production or a little more productive length, he'd be higher. But add his defense, and he was very valuable for a reasonably long time. He might eventually make it further up.
30. Edd Roush
31. Bucky Walters: further consideration pushes those others ahead of him.
32. Jose Mendez
   150. Rick A. Posted: August 05, 2006 at 02:28 PM (#2128375)
The least you could have done was have posted a revised ballot like others have done this week. ;-)

Sorrry, John. I could always forget to remove last years electees, like I did last year and repost my ballot again if you'd like. ;-)
   151. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 05, 2006 at 05:42 PM (#2128487)
Sorrry, John. I could always forget to remove last years electees, like I did last year and repost my ballot again if you'd like. ;-)

lol
   152. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: August 06, 2006 at 03:57 PM (#2129006)
1982 ballot

1. Hank Aaron (PHOM)
2. Frank Robinson (PHOM)
Bad Henry was decidedly badder, which is not to say Frank didn’t have his moments. A year earlier, a year later -- most years -- Frank would be no. 1.

3. Billy Williams: Career edge over Minoso, I see the 2 as pretty similar. (eligible 1982)

4. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

5. Bill Freehan: The win shares, durability, no. of good seasons and defense make him my #1 catcher, so he slots above Bresnahan, which might mean I have Bresnahan too high, or not. The longer I do this, the more confuseder I get. It should be the other way around, shouldn’t it? (eligible 1982)

6. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

7. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

8. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

9. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

10. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)

11. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

12. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

13. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning without league quality issues. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

14. Ken Boyer: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)

15. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)



Required comments:
Jose Mendez: On the bubble -- the HOF election is an influence.
Hugh Duffy: Hugh made my PHOM in ’40, but the field’s much deeper now. Near the bottom of my top 30.
Cupid Childs: My #3 2b behind Fox (on ballot) and Doyle (off).
Dick Redding: Slips just off. Doubts got too nagging to leave him on. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

New guys:
Willie Davis: Good WS total, a few good seasons after an up-&-down early career, but neither the peak nor the career are all that impressive. Never a top-3 outfielder in a year.
Tony Oliva: Fine all-around player, probably on HOF/HOM track until injuries did him in. Not enough career, which would have been even shorter if not for the DH rule.
   153. dan b Posted: August 06, 2006 at 06:04 PM (#2129100)
Baseball talent is normally distributed with inner circle HoM candidates represented by the extreme right tip of the bell shaped curve and an increasing number of comparable candidates contending for the lower echelon of the Hall as you follow the curve to the left. The large number of players justifiably receiving votes is evidence that this is the case. The list of borderline candidates grows every year. To be fair to all eras, it is time to let go of favorite teddy bears. PHoMers Cravath, Leach, Browning and W. Cooper have been on my ballot for a long time and obviously, since they are PHoMers, I feel they should have been elected long ago. After years as also-rans against less competition for the vote, they have been rejected by the consensus in favor of their contemporaries. They are part of the growing borderline glut, their time has passed, and after careful re-evaluation, their once hallowed spot on my ballot will be taken by comparable players of more recent vintage.

1. Aaron Close to dead center of the inner circle.
2. Robinson, F Is the inner circle big enough for F Robby?
3. Williams, B If we cut the size of our hall in half, Williams would be a borderline candidate.
4. Duffy PHoM 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons. A teddy bear not rejected by the consensus.
5. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
6. Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. Another teddy bear not rejected by the consensus.
7. Freehan Best catcher on the ballot.
8. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
9. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
10. Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
· 3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
· 5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
· 8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
· WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
· OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
· NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
· Too bad we elected Ashburn.
11. Minoso PHoM 1972.
12. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
13. Pierce Moving up. By WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
14. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras. Dropping down, but not off (yet).
15. Boyer, K More deserving than Sewell.
16. Fox, N
17. Howard, E
18. Howard, F
19. Cravath
20. Leach

Mendez and Redding will make my PHoVG, which reminds me – after we are caught up and waiting to reconvene for our 2008 election, let’s stay in touch by going back to 1898 and start building a Hall of the Very Good with HoMers obviously not eligible. Would Ned Williamson be our first inductee?
   154. Chris Cobb Posted: August 06, 2006 at 06:49 PM (#2129160)
1982 Ballot

Wow! The strongest set of new arrivals since at least 1943, which was the last time four soon-to-be HoMers (Charleston, Cochrane, Frisch, and Bill Foster) reached the ballot in the same season. Aaron, Robinson, and Williams will all go in very easily. There may be a bit of debate about Freehan, but I expect he will be elected by 1985 at the latest. The class of 1934 (Cobb, Speaker, Collins, Lloyd, Joe Williams, Torriente, and Coveleski) remains unmatched, of course, as the strongest ever.

1. Hank Aaron (n/e). Ought to be a unanimous #1 this year, but with a #2 as good as Frank Robinson, that may not happen. Not as good as Mays, but better than Musial. If not top 10 all time, then certainly top 15. His breaking of Babe Ruth’s home run record, with all that went with it, is the single most impressive career achievement in baseball history, in my view.
2. Frank Robinson (n/e). Good enough to be a unanimous #1 in the majority of elections, but not this year. Among the best 30 players we have seen so far.
3. Billy Williams (n/e). Way behind Aaron and Robinson, but still a great player. Among outfielders so far eligible, I have him in a group with Duke Snider and Harry Heilmann: players who are no-doubt Homers but clearly not inner-circle types. His peak wasn’t as good as theirs, but his career was better.
4. Rabbit Maranville (3). An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
5. Jose Mendez (4). Pretty much holding steady with the best pitching peak among eligibles. Now that he’s at the top of the backlog, the electorate should review his case carefully while we elect shoo-ins in 1982-84.
6. Bill Freehan (n/e). The best catcher of the 1960s, very strong offensively and defensively. Who knew? Actually more underrated than Ron Santo, who is a well-known cause in sabermetric circles. I am unaware of any serious attention to Freehan’s case for the Hall of Fame. An excellent opportunity for the HoM to give credit where it is due.
7. Dick Redding (5). Slips behind Maranville and now Mendez among 1910s & early 20s stars. I’d happily elect him, but I see him as slightly less brilliant than the three above. Recently published data has raised questions about his career value. I haven’t had a chance to review the data, but I think it’s just as well that we will have a few years of shoo-ins coming up so that we can chew over that data before Redding reaches the cusp of election.
8. Dave Bancroft (6). Top beneficiary of my reexamination of WARP and fielding value. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
9. Charlie Keller (7). Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
10. Minnie Minoso (8). As with Keller, WARP and win shares agree that, with appropriate MLE credit, he is the best remaining candidate from the 1950s.
11. Joe Sewell (9) Very strong prime with very good defense at shortstop and very good offense.
12. Billy Pierce (10). Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is gaining momentum: we should definitely elect him.
13. Herman Long (11). Like Maranville, he tracks upward as I place more weight on infield defense.
14. Jake Beckley (12). Well, look who else benefits from my reassessment of first-base defense! No great years, but with his defense properly credited, he was steadily an above-average player for a very long time.
15. Tommy Leach. (13). Greater credit for fielding brings him back onto the ballot.


The next fifteen
16. Ralph Kiner (14). Bumped off ballot by the bumper crop of new eligibles. He’ll return in the mid-1980s.
17. Rube Waddell (15). See Kiner. Joe D. sees him as comparable to Three-Finger Brown, whom he worries was a mistake election. I agree that Brown was a dubious selection, but I think Waddell was better. Great peak, though not quite as good as Mendez’s.
18. Charley Jones
19. Alejandro Oms
20. Edd Roush
21. Norm Cash
22. Gavvy Cravath
23. Ken Boyer
24. Nellie Fox
25. Cupid Childs
26. Bus Clarkson
27. Bucky Walters
28. Ben Taylor
29. Urban Shocker
30. Burleigh Grimes

Returning Consensus Top 10 not on my ballot:

Hugh Duffy: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. I can see giving Duffy some extra credit beyond his stats for his team’s outperforming their stats, but that should only go so far. He’s in the 40-50 range in my rankings. I think Duffy is being seriously overvalued by the electorate, and it would be a mistake to elect him.

Rube Waddell: See #17 above. He’s just off my ballot, and will return after the early 80s glut gets elected.

Other new candidates of note:

Willie Davis: Very similar in value to Vada Pinson. Pinson was better early, Davis was better late. With no credit for play in Japan, he’s a bit behind Pinson; with Japan credit, he is about even with Pinson. He’s not far out of the picture, but he’s still out.

Tony Oliva: A strong prime, but his is ultimately a What-if? candidacy. If his knees hadn’t gone and he could have put up 5-6 more years like his prime, he might well have been a HoMer. As his career was, he’s a little behind Rocky Colavito in my rankings for the 1960s.

Rico Petrocelli: One awesome year and a nice peak, but not nearly enough career for me. Ranks a little behind Oliva.
   155. Sean Gilman Posted: August 06, 2006 at 07:14 PM (#2129178)
Baseball talent is normally distributed with inner circle HoM candidates represented by the extreme right tip of the bell shaped curve and an increasing number of comparable candidates contending for the lower echelon of the Hall as you follow the curve to the left. The large number of players justifiably receiving votes is evidence that this is the case. The list of borderline candidates grows every year. To be fair to all eras, it is time to let go of favorite teddy bears. PHoMers Cravath, Leach, Browning and W. Cooper have been on my ballot for a long time and obviously, since they are PHoMers, I feel they should have been elected long ago. After years as also-rans against less competition for the vote, they have been rejected by the consensus in favor of their contemporaries. They are part of the growing borderline glut, their time has passed, and after careful re-evaluation, their once hallowed spot on my ballot will be taken by comparable players of more recent vintage.

I don't believe this is Constitutional, Dan. If you think Cravath is one of the 15 best players on the ballot, you need to vote for him, whether or not anyone else agrees with you or however long he's been eligible.
   156. Patrick W Posted: August 06, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#2129354)
Newbies take the top three. Bill Freehan is just below Santop in value but 50 years too late to join him in the Hall. No one else appears likely to ever see the ballot.

1. Henry Aaron (n/a), Milw.- Atl. (N), RF (’54-’76) (1982) – Having only seen him on highlight reels, I really had Aaron’s career figured wrong. While no doubt great, I thought it was only his longevity that put him atop those career leader boards; I didn’t think it was possible that he was actually as great as Mays or Musial. Ties Williams for the most 10+ WARP years and bests Cobb & Stan to reach the top 5.
2. Frank Robinson (n/a), Cinc.(N) - Balt. (A), RF / LF (’56-’76) (1982) – Frank’s NL career pretty easily trumps his AL stint. I thought the competition would be a little closer.
3. Billy Williams (n/a), Chic.(N), LF (’61-’76) – More hitting value than Banks or Santo, but less fielding value in LF than at 3B or SS. I rank him third amongst the 60s Cubbies.
4. Billy Pierce (3), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – He made the top ten? I'm speechless.
5. Ken Boyer (4), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding infielders further down the ballot.
6. Dutch Leonard (5), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
7. Dizzy Trout (6), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
8. Norm Cash (7), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
9. Alejandro Oms (8), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
10. George Van Haltren (9), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
11. Ben Taylor (10), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – I am comfortable being Ben’s 2nd-3rd biggest fan.
12. Dom DiMaggio (11), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) (1978) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
13. Bob Johnson (12), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
14. Luis Aparicio (13), Chic. – Balt. (A), SS (’56-’73) – Luis causes a re-evaluation of the infielders. They are slotted correctly here amongst each other, but not yet among the pitchers and outfielders. All these guys could slot between spots 8-30 at the drop of a hat.
15. Minnie Minoso (15), Chic. (A), LF (’49-’63) – Numbers say he’s on the happy side of the in/out line of the HOM right now (i.e. one of the top 200+ players of all time), but I see him as a victim of the timeline to ensure earlier eras were properly represented. Having said that, he is 4th on the backlog for P-Hall entry, so I could be wrong…

Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Joe Sewell – Elect 2 last year, 3 rookies worthy this year, someone has to fall off
Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 27 votes and Chuck Klein with 2 before I explain why he is off-ballot.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Cupid Childs – Not too far behind Groh and Rizzuto in value, who were on the ballot as recently as 1979. There are quite a few outfielders who are in this same value range too, though.
Hugh Duffy – This seems like we’re just pulling names out of the hat at random. 65 years later, still not better than Ryan or Van Haltren.

How fortunate that Pierce made a climb in the standings. I figured Sewell dropping off would bring me back to one player from last year’s top ten making my top 15. Now I’m in the almost unheard-of territory of 2 consecutive years with 2 players on the list.
   157. DavidFoss Posted: August 06, 2006 at 11:20 PM (#2129418)
1982 Ballot
1. Hank Aaron (ne) -- Lots of great stuff in his discussion thread.
2. Frank Robinson (ne) -- Great stuff in his thread, too. Would be unanimous #1 in many other years.
3. Larry Doyle (4) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
4. John McGraw (5) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
5. Cupid Childs (6) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
6. Ralph Kiner (8) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
7. Gavvy Cravath (9) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
8. Charley Jones (10) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
9. Dick Redding (7) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. Roger Bresnahan (11) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
11. Joe Sewell (12) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
12. Bob Elliott (13) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
13. Billy Pierce (14) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA.
14. Billy Williams (ne) -- Lukewarm on him. Much of his high WS numbers come from extreme in-season durability. I like corner OF-ers with more dominant peaks. I like him enough to make the ballot, though.
15. Charlie Keller (15) -- Tough guy to rank, but thought I'd toss him some love. A legitimate HOM peak, but issues with minor league credit before, war credit during, and his health later have kept him low. Its tough to pull the trigger on a borderline guy when so much of his value is speculative.
16-20. Rosen, Browning, BJohnson, Freehan, Chance,
21-25. Lombardi, Fox, Beckley, Welch, Trouppe,
26-30. DMoore, Roush, Minoso, FHoward, Cash,
31-35. Leach, Waddell, KBoyer, Cepeda, Newcombe,
36. TBridges
   158. Howie Menckel Posted: August 06, 2006 at 11:33 PM (#2129437)
I agree with Sean re dan b's comments and constitutionality.

I almost sympathize with him, but we decided a long time ago not to go that route.

I do think it's reasonable to weigh the evidence of 'naysayers' on those guys, though. Did you factor in the qualms decades ago when you picked out that teddy bear?

I stopped voting for Redding (who used to be high on my ballot), but only after the new HOF evidence suggested he didn't do much in the 1920s. I'm still sold on Childs, part-sold on Browning and Welch, etc. It is what it is...
   159. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 07, 2006 at 12:45 AM (#2129558)
I don't believe this is Constitutional, Dan. If you think Cravath is one of the 15 best players on the ballot, you need to vote for him, whether or not anyone else agrees with you or however long he's been eligible.

You're 100% correct, Sean. This looks like a matter for Joe to decide.
   160. dan b Posted: August 07, 2006 at 01:13 AM (#2129634)
I take exception to the suggestion that my ballot is unconstitutional. One of the goals of participating in this project is to learn, whether it be through the research of others such as the Negro League work done by Chris Cobb and Dr Chaleko, or the criticism of others towards your point of view. Assessment of the voting patterns of the group is a useful tool in helping discern errors in your own methods. You guys have helped me see the errors of my previous ballots and I can no longer justify voting for my teddy bears. I would further suggest that other voters look into discarding their teddy bears. One of our constitutional principles is fairness to all eras. I contend that the permanent candidacy rule is proving unfair to later eras as the teddy bears steal votes from modern lower echelon candidates.

I stand by my ballot as submitted.
   161. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#2129742)
Dan, while your honesty is appreciated, Sean and Howie are correct, your ballot is unconstitutional.

Voters are clearly instructed to vote for the 15 players they feel are the best. You are not allowed to drop 'lost causes'. This has come up before and we've been very clear regarding this subject.
   162. sunnyday2 Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:22 AM (#2129762)
I would agree that danb didn't explain his decision very well. But I think you are misinterpreting what he said. He is not discarding his "teddy bears" BECAUSE they are lost causes. While they are lost causes, as he says, he has discarded them because he has decided that the modern borderliners are better than the old-time borderliners.

I have dropped Cupid Childs and Ed Williamson from long-time places on my ballot to the 30s or so because they just aren't as good as the more modern players. I struggled with whether I should do so, specifically whether their relative position among their peers was decisive. IOW Ed Williamson is very close to being the best 3B of the 19C whereas Ken Boyer is a long shot behind Eddie Mathews and Mike Schmidt. Relatively speaking Williamson was better, in a sense. And I don't believe in "absolute" ability. A pennant is a pennant, and that means that Terry Pendleton can't rate more highly than Williamson. But splitting the difference I decided that Ken Boyer is more HoM-worthy.

I think this (or, rather, something sort of like it) is what danb said. And if I thought his ballot was unconstitutional, then I would think mine is, too, and it's not.

This is different than jimd's unconstitutional ballot of some years ago. jimd said "lost cause, and therefore off my ballot." That's not what danb said. I think you should reread his posts and reconsider.
   163. dan b Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:30 AM (#2129778)
Quoting myself, "Assessment of the voting patterns of the group is a useful tool in helping discern errors in your own methods. You guys have helped me see the errors of my previous ballots and I can no longer justify voting for my teddy bears."

Are you asking me to submit a ballot I can not justify and no longer believe to be correct?

I respectfully request that you accept my ballot as submitted.
   164. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:34 AM (#2129786)
That's not what Dan said Marc.

"PHoMers Cravath, Leach, Browning and W. Cooper have been on my ballot for a long time and obviously, since they are PHoMers, I feel they should have been elected long ago. After years as also-rans against less competition for the vote, they have been rejected by the consensus in favor of their contemporaries. They are part of the growing borderline glut, their time has passed, and after careful re-evaluation, their once hallowed spot on my ballot will be taken by comparable players of more recent vintage."

To me, it's clear that he's dropping them because they have no chance of election - he specifically says they've been rejected by the consensus, and that's why he's dropping them. Not that he's re-evaluated them and they aren't as good as he thought they were. That's clearly unconstitutional.
   165. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:38 AM (#2129795)
OK Dan, maybe I misinterpreted what you said, as Marc suggests.

Are you saying that honestly you don't think those guys were as good as you thought they were? Seems strange that a re-assessment would only affect 4 lost causes and not others.
   166. sunnyday2 Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:39 AM (#2129796)
To me, he says he is voting for comparable players and that he is voting for them because they are of recent vintage, and that being fair to all eras in this case means being fair to recent players over pet players of the past. Like I said, he didn't express himself very well and there is language in there to suggest a "lost causes" motivation. He says they are lost causes, but not that that is his motivation in bumping them.
   167. DavidFoss Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:41 AM (#2129805)
jimd said "lost cause, and therefore off my ballot."

I believe that voter even had slotted the lost causes on the ballot where they would have been... like some do with already inducted guys not in their PHOM. He even had a much stricter notion of lost cause as well -- that he was the *only* guy voting for a person. Cravath and especially Browning have a decent level of support here.

The claim that Teddy Bears are taking away from moderns is definitely something we need to worry about. It certainly is taking away from the 'unanimity' levels that many lurkers are expecting for the moderns that they grew up watching. That decrease in unanimity hasn't been preventing any inductions though, as far as I can see. The 1982 election just about finishes off the titanic class of superstars born in the early 1930s, so maybe its nearing the time to do an analysis and see how represented modern eras are.

If the era that your Teddy Bear is from an era that is overrepresented, then that could be used as grounds to lower him, in my opinion. I've been letting Bob Johnson slip on my ballot because I think we've inducted enough of 1930s guys. Bob's always been a bit of a borderline candidate for me, but he'd probably be 5 slots up (and in my top 15) if I didn't do that. I can't say the same thing for Doyle & Cravath. The 1910s are nowhere near as represented as the 1930s, so I keep voting for them.

If it turns out that the 1950s & 1960s are greatly underrepresented, then we can point that out and guys like Fox/Pierce/Cash/Cepeda/etc will get a surge in support... leapfrogging guys from other eras in the process, perhaps. But, we should determine if there is a shortage first and not just assume there is one.
   168. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:42 AM (#2129806)
"Are you asking me to submit a ballot I can not justify and no longer believe to be correct?"

No, we are asking you to submit the 15 players that you feel are the best. The consensus should have nothing to do with that. This is why we have perpetual eligibility. If everyone dropped their lost causes, why not just have players lose eligibility at some point.

This whole thing only works when everyone submits the 15 players they feel are the best, regardless of the consensus. It's one thing to try to get someone to change their opinion, but another to just drop guys you feel deserve to be there because others rejected them.
   169. AJMcCringleberry Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2129827)
1. Hank Aaron
2. Frank Robinson

Huh, they were pretty good.

3. Billy Williams - Great hitter who was incredibly durable. Played 160+ games 8 times.

4. Jose Mendez - Truly outstanding peak.

5. Bucky Walters - Not as good a peak as Mendez, but more career value.

6. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

7. Joe Sewell - Outstanding shortstop. And could hit a little bit too.

8. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

9. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting centerfielder, long career

10. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

11. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

12. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

13. George Van Haltren - Good hitting CFer, over 400 adjusted win shares.

14. Minnie Minoso - Very good hitter, over 350 win shares after adding his negro league career.

15. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

16. Billy Pierce
17. Vada Pinson
18. Norm Cash
19. Hugh Duffy
20. Bob Elliot
21. Edd Roush
22. Tommy Leach
23. Harry Hooper
24. Bill Freehan
25. Alejandro Oms
26. Buzz Arlett
27. Orlando Cepeda
28. Gil Hodges
29. Burleigh Grimes
30. Willie Davis

Disclosures:

Kiner - Great peak, but not enough career value.

Redding - Not impressed outside of his 3 year peak.

Childs - Just didn't have a long enough career.
   170. DanG Posted: August 07, 2006 at 04:24 AM (#2129890)
If everyone dropped their lost causes, why not just have players lose eligibility at some point.

Well, not to be snarky (OK, maybe a little), but this is exactly what we should have done, as "70 and Out" suggested. Anyway, that's water under the bridge, and having said that, my first reaction was that dan b's reasoning was unconstitutional. And his line, "their time has passed", I thought especially objectionable since it has nothing to do with their merit as players.

What I would point out to dan is that three of his four players in question are very much alive as candidates. Cravath, Leach and, especially, Browning have continually finished among the top 25 also-rans in the past decade of our elections, each with a dozen or so staunch supporters. Joe Gordon is a good recent example of a candidate catching on and climbing steadily to election; from a 25th place finish in 1965 he gained election in 1976. As we near the 2008 election we will continue to dig into the current backlog, so the 28 also-rans with 10% or more support in 1981 cannot be dismissed as being "rejected by the consensus".

Sorry to say this about a long-time voter, but I think we need a more specific explanation of the analytical process behind the phrase, "You guys have helped me see the errors of my previous ballots", before we can accept dan's ballot.
   171. DanG Posted: August 07, 2006 at 04:37 AM (#2129894)
And my ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #2 were elected. This year brings the stellar class of Aaron and F. Robinson, relegating B. Williams, Freehan and W. Davis to the queue. The backlog grows in 1983 with the quartet of Torre, Allen, B. Robinson and Wynn coming on. A four-year backlog bonanza begins in 1984, when Fregosi and Wood lead a weak freshman class.

1) Hank Aaron – Inner inner-circle.

2) Frank Robinson – Impressive post-career resume.

3) Billy Williams – Consensus top-200 player. Nobody below him on this ballot can make that claim.

4) George Van Haltren (3,4,2) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned. In six years, 1972 to 1978, he went from the #1 unelected player to #15. Why? Now in his 74th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

5) Tommy Leach (4,5,4) – Holding steady, finished mid-20’s for the tenth straight year. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

6) Edd Roush (5,6,5) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. Support recouped last election, finishing back in the top 20. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

7) Minnie Minoso (6,7,6) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

8) Bill Freehan – More durable than Roger, even adjusted for era. Peak nearly as high. Could move up.

9) Roger Bresnahan (7,8,7) – Only about nine voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .380, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas
8—.386 N. Lajoie
9—.382 M. Huggins

10) Jimmy Ryan (8,9,8) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 16 voters who had GVH in their top eleven last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

11) Jake Beckley (9,10,9) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

12) Wally Schang (10,11,10) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

13) Burleigh Grimes (11,12,11) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3750+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

11—3762 W. Hoyt
12—3760 J. Bunning
13—3759 B. Newsom

14) Charlie Keller (12,13,12) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too.

15) Cupid Childs (13,14,13) – I’ve voted for him nine times previously: 1914-15, 1942 and 1976-81. The backlog added since 1940 has finally played itself out. Players with OBP over .400, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1--.455 B. Hamilton
2--.433 T. Cobb
3--.431 T. Speaker
4--.423 D. Brouthers
5--.421 E. Collins
6--.416 C. Childs
7--.415 J. Burkett
8--.413 R. Thomas
9--.411 E. Delahanty
10--.402 J. Kelley

Top tenners off ballot:

Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters. In fact, I have a suspicion that some of their lofty ranking is due to the fact that, because most of their analysis was the work of others, voters are unable to justify a downgrading.

Duffy was a regular on my ballot until 35 years ago and may return someday; like Thompson his raw performance was greatly inflated by a hitter’s park. I’ve never voted for Sewell, the “position-era domination” argument doesn’t do much for me. OTOH, I’ve never voted for Waddell because he ranks behind many other pitchers of his era, where it was easy for pitchers to dominate. In all three cases, their performances are not historically rare.

Kiner and Pierce drop off for now.
   172. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 07, 2006 at 08:59 AM (#2129949)
1982 Ballot (I'm -3 months old)

1. Hank Aaron
2. Frank Robinson
3. Charlie Keller
4. Billy Williams
5. Bill Freehan

6. Jose Mendez
7. Dobie Moore
8. Quincy Trouppe
9. Rube Waddell
10. Dick Redding

11. Nellie Fox
12. Minnie Minoso
13. Alejandro Oms
14. Billy Pierce
15. Tommy Leach

Other Consensus Top Ten Returnees
Joe Sewell - Top 50. Low peak. Last good season came at 32.
Ralph Kiner - Top 25. Four outstanding seasons not enough.
Cupid Childs - Top 50. Closer to 25th than 50th. Shortish career. Positional dominance over contemporaries not an important factor in evaluation.
Hugh Duffy - Top 25. Worthy player crowded off of tight ballot.
   173. rawagman Posted: August 07, 2006 at 09:50 AM (#2129958)
re: dan b's ballot. I don't think it's unconstitutional at all. He didn't make the 4 guys disappear. He simply came to the conclusion that some of his "teddy bear" picks were not as good as some newer types. Four guys who were just made eligible this "year" are in his top 7. Assuming two of his ballot picks were elected last "year", he would have to remove at least two men form his ballot to add the four new guys. He mentioned four guys. Is it not reasonable that he studied a few players with more depth this week and realized that a) his "teddy bear" picks were maybe not as great as he once believed and
b) there are other players who were even better?

I think so. I have balloted Redding, Beckley and George Van Haltren once upon a time. And I have also realigned my thinking on elected candidates such as Drysdale and Mackey post-facto.
   174. sunnyday2 Posted: August 07, 2006 at 12:25 PM (#2129985)
Speaking of unconstitutional, what about ballots that have no explanation whatsoever? I think there are two of them this year, so far.
   175. Max Parkinson Posted: August 07, 2006 at 01:23 PM (#2130011)
1982 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are …I’m not going to dignify the thought that it could be anyone else.)

1. Henry Aaron

2. Frank Robinson

Well, that was easy. In case anyone is curious, through the end of 1981, I have these two as 17th and 32nd of all time.

3. Jose Mendez

Would have been the third-best pitcher of the early teens, from what I can see in the good work of the NL folk here at the HOM.

4. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

5. Rube Waddell

Slight change to pitcher rankings, with a touch more emphasis on peak. Waddell hops Redding.

6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. Dick Redding
8. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

9. Joe Sewell
10. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

11. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.


12. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

13. George Burns

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

14. (N)Ed Williamson

Between him and Mugsy, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

15. Billy Williams

Very good, no doubt. But I just don’t see enough here to be the automatic #3. He’s another 2nd or 3rd tier outfielder from his era. I mean, he’ll get into my PHoM, but I don’t see a lot between him and Burns and Veach (and Keller and Minoso).


16-20. Taylor, Veach, Shocker, Keller, Cash
21-25. Minoso, Lazzeri, Walters, Bancroft, Pierce
26-30. Duffy, Konetchy, B. Johnson, Kiner, Freehan
31-35. Cicotte, Cuyler, Childs, Youngs, Klein
36-40. Tiernan, Hooper, Rucker, F. Jones, Traynor
41-45. Rommel, Trouppe, Boyer, Bradley, F. Howard
46-50. Roush, Oms, Willis, Bridges, Trout
51-55. E. Howard, Seymour, Nicholson, Leach, Chance
56-60. Griffin, Cepeda, Gomez, Ryan, R. Thomas
61-65. Schang, Wood, Nash, Harder, F. Dunlap

Previous Top 10s:
Duffy is 26.
Kiner is 29.
Beckley is 70.

On Freehan, he’s good, but like B. Williams, I just don’t see it. I don’t mean to read too much into people’s ballots, but I think that he’s getting bonus points for “best available catcher”, as if there’s a shortage of them. I don’t think that there is. If you want a shortage, look at 3B. We’ve (and my PHoM matches) elected 13 catchers. To this point in history, we know that we’re going to elect Bench, and probably Torre, and probably? Simmons. Gary Carter is off to a hell of a start, and Fisk has already done some good things. That could/should get us to 18. Call me one of the people who would like to see Freehan run the gauntlet against the true backlog for the last 2-5 spots for catchers in the HoM.
   176. Esteban Rivera Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:25 PM (#2130073)
1982 Ballot:

Nice class of ballot newcomers this year. Three of them make my ballot, with Freehan still in consideration but not enough for a ballot spot this year.

1. Hank Aaron – In.

2. Frank Robinson – In.

3. Billy Williams – His level of consistency places him at the top of my backlog.

4. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

6. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

7. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

8. Jose Mendez – Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

9. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Marichal makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

10. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

11. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

14. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

15. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

16. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

17. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

18. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

19. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

20. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Joe Sewell – Close to making my top 20. See Moore as better.

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.
   177. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 07, 2006 at 02:40 PM (#2130101)
49 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: Trevor P, Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Michael Bass, KJOK, the Commish, and Chris Fluit.
   178. Ken Fischer Posted: August 07, 2006 at 04:44 PM (#2130227)
1982 Ballot

This ballot is the last of mine on the road at a Kinko’s. It’s been a long summer traveling and moving. Next time I’ll have my own computers back with net access. 20 cents a minute at Kinko’s is a killer.

1-Hank Aaron 643 WS
No-brainer

2-Frank Robinson 519 WS
While I rate Hank higher I’ll admit Frank is a favorite of mine. Sometimes underrated…and a man I would not want to get mad.

3-Dick Redding

4-Jose Mendez

5-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Would’ve easily been over 300 if his Negro League years were in majors.

6-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Van appears to be losing support!

7-Mickey Welch 354 WS

8-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS

11-Billy Williams 374 WS

12-Ken Boyer 279 WS

13-Bob Johnson 287 WS

14-Jake Beckley 318 WS

15-Tony Mullane 399 WS
Little respect.


Sewell is #17…Kiner #22…Childs #29…Pierce #32...and Duffy # 48
   179. Andrew M Posted: August 07, 2006 at 04:46 PM (#2130231)
1982 Ballot

1. (new) Hank Aaron
2. (new) Frank Robinson

No arguments here.

3. (3) Dobie Moore. He was a great player for more than a Jennings-esque 5 years. To me, his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

4. (4) Nellie Fox. Durable (never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ not impressive, perhaps, but it’s OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career.

5. (5) Edd Roush. He’s hard to get a handle on. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc.—and it isn’t readily apparent that Roush was better than some of the other OFs with around 8000 career plate appearances, e.g. Burns, Veach, Cuyler, Manush, Bob Johnson, Minoso. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF seems slightly higher than those other OFs, and his career was significantly longer than the OFs with higher peaks (e.g. Kiner, Keller). In other words, Roush balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other contenders for this spot—for now, at least.

6. (6) Larry Doyle. Questionable defensive reputation, very good offensive player. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913.

7. (7) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale or Marichal. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade.

8. (8) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Maybe the best eligible 2B, period. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him higher, but I like him better than I like the three 1890s OFs.

9. (9) Dick Redding. I think his closest comp may be Juan Marichal. By reputation would seem to belong in the HoM, though the projections in his thread always seemed not to support that reputation.

10. (10) Rube Waddell. Deserves respect for top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even accounting for innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.

11. (11) Geo. Van Haltren. Never an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

12. (12) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

13. (13) Ralph Kiner. I don’t really like this type of player, but he does seem like the best of this type--and 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

14. (new) Bill Freehan. With apologies to Quincy Trouppe, I think he’s the best catcher available. Excellent peak, 11 time all-star.

15. (new) Billy Williams. Maybe this is too conservative a ranking, but sorting out the corner OFs here isn’t easy. Williams was a very good and very durable player. I don’t see that he is an obvious selection over the other eligible OFs, though.

Next 10
16. Minnie Minoso
17. George Burns
18. Bucky Walters
19. Quincy Trouppe
20. Charlie Keller
21. Phil Rizzuto
22. Jose Mendez
23. Vern Stephens
24. Alejandro Oms
25. Tommie Leach

Required disclosures:
Jose Mendez, Hugh Duffy, Joe Sewell.
Mendez is just off my ballot, Duffy is my least favorite of the 1890s OFs, and Joe Sewell has never done much for me as a candidate.
   180. Trevor P. Posted: August 07, 2006 at 05:27 PM (#2130268)
Nice crop of eligibles this year. Happy 2nd birthday to me.

1) Hank Aaron (ne).
2) Frank Robinson. (ne).
3) George Van Haltren (3). Consolidated league, long career, scads of win shares, and a pretty decent late-career prime. Don’t be swayed by the latest WARP translations (or, if you are, make sure you vote for Bob Johnson!) - GVH belongs.
4) Jake Beckley (4). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite a lot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
5) Billy Williams (ne). Positions #3-#5 on this ballot are extremely tight, but I’m going to go with extreme durability in the 1890s over Williams’ level of Medwick-plus offense.
6) Billy Pierce (5). I know it’s in vogue to compare Pierce to Marichal. But we enshrined contemporary Bob Lemon, and Pierce has nearly double (198 to 107) the amount of adjusted PRAA, and wins out in DERA 3.97 to 4.17. Do 220 more total bases at bat really make up that difference? If Lemon belongs, so does Pierce.
7) Bill Freehan (ne). I’m a bit more certain of Freehan’s merit than I am of Trouppe’s. Helps that he starred in the years just before the catcher glut of Torre, Munson, Bench, Simmons, and so on. Thus concludes the “Players Named Bill” section of my ballot.
8) Quincy Trouppe (6). More appearances per season than Schang, and a much better hitter than Mackey - probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
9) Cupid Childs (7). Coming into the 1970s, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation in 1971 underscored how impressive his peak really was.
10) Bob Johnson. (8) Beats Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s. Something interesting I noticed awhile ago - Johnson appears to be the only eligible player we haven’t enshrined who, according to BP’s translations, would have hit 500 HRs.
11) Edd Roush (9). Hurt by the discount to WARP3. Comparable to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
12) Burleigh Grimes (10). Substantial movement in 1976 after comparing his case with Eppa Rixey, whom I had as high as #2. His extreme highs are enough to balance out his scary lows; if he’d grouped them all together, instead of vacillating between the two extremes, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
13) Minnie Minoso (11). Similar to Bob Johnson; placement depends on how much credit you give for his pre-ML play. I can’t fathom how one could have Minoso in an elect-me position and Johnsn off-ballot, though.
14) Jimmy Ryan. (14) All the GVH comparisons are valid; I just think Van Haltren’s a tad better. Might’ve been the Billy Williams of the 19th century with a higher peak.
15) Bob Elliott (12). Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Severe lack in quality 3B during Elliott’s era (unlike Boyer’s).

Dick Redding and Joe Sewell - Unfortunately, due to the four new guys on the ballot, both Redding and Sewell miss the top 15 this year. They’re sitting at #16 and #17, respectively.
Jose Mendez - Below Koufax, whom I had around #25.
Hugh Duffy - Win Shares might like his fielding, but WARP declares him to be average. His 1894 doesn’t impress me as much when league strength is taken into account.
Ralph Kiner – In a second tier of short-career corner outfielders like Charlie Keller and Pete Browning. He’s the best, though, and is currently #21.
Tony Oliva - Hello, Rocky Colavito.
Willie Davis - Long, flat career; with some sort of prime could conceivably have made the ballot as a Richie Ashburn-type. I’m not sold on why I should be counting his Japanese seasons, though. Will we be counting Julio Franco’s time in the Mexican league?
   181. andrew siegel Posted: August 07, 2006 at 05:32 PM (#2130274)
Though Dan didn't explain himself very well, I think his ballot is constitutional. I think he did the same thing I have done over the last few weeks: gone back and reexamined old ON-Ballot guys and realized that he was overrating them compared to borderline modern guys. Assuming that I am right about his reasoning, his actions are not only constitutional, they are laudable. I go back every week and reexamine a hanful of OFF-ballot guys, often moving them onto the ballot or up in my also-ran list. Until recently, it was very rare for me to re-examine ON-Ballot guys. As a result, I would move up some old player who I just rediscovered (e.g., Cravath, Roush, Leach, Bridges) and keep voting for other old players out of habit, squeezing modern borderliners off the ballot. In recent months, however, I have restudied and dropped down or off the ballot a bunch of old guys, including: Moore (MLE's not as high as I initially projected), Oms (low projected OPS+ in comparison to other OF's); Trouppe (current MLE's make him the most underrated player in history but still leave him below Freehan and Schang, roughly even with Bresnahan and E. Howard); Duffy/GVH (WS overrates OF, too many good OF's during their era). My ballot is always evolving, FBOFW.
   182. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 05:39 PM (#2130284)
Andrew, what you say is perfectly fine and reasonable. I still don't see that that is what Dan did.

Dan, please let us know what your honest intentions are here - are they what Andrew is saying in #182, or what I'm saying in #165?
   183. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 05:43 PM (#2130289)
1982 edition of my ballot . . .

1. Hank Aaron RF (n/e) - Slammalamma Ding-Dong!

2. Frank Robinson RF (n/e) - As was mentioned on his thread, when you combine the managing (underrated to me), playing and league office work, arguably the most 'complete' career in the history of baseball. Rates here easily on the playing alone, would be #1 most years.

3. Billy Williams LF (n/e) - I see little difference between Williams and Al Simmons.

4. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

5. Joe Sewell SS (4) - I've been too hard on him. With my revised rankings, he's smack dab in the middle of the pack among HoM SS's. I'm glad he didn't get rushed in, but now I've come full circle and think he's waited too long.

6. Jack Quinn SP (5) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a huge leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26.

7. Urban Shocker SP (6) - Vaulted last week, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

8. Billy Pierce SP (7) - What's not to like? He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. He took a bit of a dip with my league adjustments (AL much worse than NL during his tenure). But I still think he's worthy.

9. Charley Jones LF (8) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

10. Jake Beckley 1B (9) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

I read a comment last week that had CF as more important in the 1890s than 1B. If that's the case, those were some of the worst managers ever, because league average CF during the career of Mike Griffin had an OWP of .562 - while 1B during Beckley's career only had a .531 OWP. So if they were sacrificing that much offense to get a good defensive 1B, they were either making a massive mistake, or the game was different.

11. Bill Freehan C (n/e) - This begins the Tiger portion of the ballot. All kidding aside, Freehan was a heckuva player. I see Schang as the better hitter, but Freehan was much better with the leather and had a higher peak. They are extremely close, but I lean towards Freehan right now.

12. Norm Cash 1B (10) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example. This is a conservative ranking. I will be VERY disappointed if he isn't eventually elected.

13. Tommy Bridges SP (11) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

14. Wally Schang C (12) - Played for the Tigers in 1931, concluding the Tiger portion of the ballot. Basically the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense questionable, only thing keeping him from the #7 spot on this ballot.

15. Cupid Childs 2B (13) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.

Dropping out:

Big new class, shoves these guys down for a year or three.

16. Dave Bancroft SS (14) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

17. Burleigh Grimes SP (15) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.
   184. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 05:44 PM (#2130290)
Top remaining candidates by position, with a 'score' for position players based on something I'm working on right now, that isn't 'ready for release'. It kind of breaks down around the extremes, so I'm not fully comfortable with it yet. It's also not adjusted for season length or weak leagues like the AA. I'll also list the scores for the guys on my ballot, and all Hall of Famers that we haven't elected.

It's done a pretty good job of predicting HoMers (outside of the short schedule 19th century guys), with a few exceptions around the periphery . . .

C - Wally Schang (72.1), Bill Freehan (69.1), Roger Bresnahan (65.6), Ernie Lombardi (55.7), Smoky Burgess (50.6), Duke Farrell (50.0), Johnny Kling (48.4), Sherm Lollar (48.4), Rick Ferrell (48.2), Deacon McGuire (47.8), Jack Clements (46.0), Chief Zimmer (45.4), Tom Haller (44.7), Walker Cooper (42.0), Fred Carroll (40.7), Ray Schalk (36.1), Elston Howard (31.1 no extra credit), John Clapp (27.8), Al Lopez (19.6)

1B - Norm Cash (85.5), Jake Beckley (77.7), Ed Konetchy (69.3), Frank Chance (68.1), Orlando Cepeda (61.8), Jake Daubert (57.3), Jack Fournier (56.3), Harry Davis (54.9), Mickey Vernon (54.5), Dolph Camilli (53.6), Gil Hodges (53.2), Fred Tenney (47.9), Dan McGann (46.7), Phil Cavaretta (46.5), Ferris Fain (45.8), Bill White (42.7), Jim Bottomley (42.4), Rudy York (42.1), Dave Orr (41.5), Jack Doyle (40.1), Joe Judge (39.1), Ted Kluszewski (37.5), Hal Chase (37.4), Joe Adcock (37.1), George Kelly (33.2)

2B - Cupid Childs (78.5), Tony Lazzeri (76.2), Fred Dunlap (72.8 - doesn't discount 1884), Nellie Fox (71.2), Eddie Stanky (67.6), Larry Doyle (63.9), Red Schoendienst (63.4), Del Pratt (62.3), Johnny Evers (60.5), Buddy Myer (60.3), Dick McAuliffe (58.1), Gil McDougald (55.4), Lonny Frey (54.4), Tom Daly (54.3), Miller Huggins (52.1), Max Bishop (51.7), Jimmy Williams (49.9), Bill Mazeroski (47.3), Pete Runnels (47.1), Bobby Avila (46.7 no extra credit)

SS - Joe Sewell (107.8), Dave Bancroft (76.1), Phil Rizzuto (64.3 with war credit), Dick Bartell (63.6), Vern Stephens (61.3 no war demerits), Travis Jackson (60.0), Donie Bush (60.0), Maury Wills (58.6), Roger Peckinpaugh (55.0), Luis Aparicio (54.8), Rico Petrocelli (53.2), Joe Tinker (50.1), Art Fletcher (49.7), Rabbit Maranville (44.2), Herman Long (43.7), Marty Marion (37.5)

3B - John McGraw (76.2), Pie Traynor (72.5), Tommy Leach (68.0), Bob Elliott (67.4), Harlond Clift (67.4), Larry Gardner (62.6), Ken Boyer (62.0), Denny Lyons (56.7), Lave Cross (56.0), Willie Kamm (55.4), Billy Nash (53.8), Bill Joyce (53.3), Art Devlin (52.1), George Kell (50.7), Bill Bradley (48.5), Ken Keltner (48.4), Al Rosen (46.8), Heine Zimmerman (44.4), Arlie Latham (44.1), Ed Williamson (39.0), Freddie Lindstrom (38.1),

LF - Billy Williams (87.6), Bob Johnson (69.9), Augie Galan (61.4), Rocky Colavito (60.8), Ralph Kiner (59.3), Charlie Keller (58.1), Minnie Minoso (52.4), Riggs Stephenson (51.7), Don Buford (50.9), George Burns (50.8), Bobby Veach (47.8), Charley Jones (47.0), Chick Hafey (41.4), Sid Gordon (40.2), Ken Williams (38.8), Lefty O'Doul (37.3), Heinie Manush (37.2).

CF - Pete Browning (65.4 unadjusted for weak AA), Edd Roush (63.6), Dom DiMaggio (60.8 with war credit), Mike Griffin (54.8), Wally Berger (54.7), Kiki Cuyler (53.9), Hack Wilson (53.2), Hugh Duffy (51.4), Fielder Jones (49.3), Earle Combs (47.7), Roy Thomas (44.8), George Van Haltren (43.6), Lloyd Waner (30.3).

RF - Hank Aaron (178.4), Frank Robinson (142.5), Tommy Henrich (76.2 with war credit), Jimmy Ryan (59.6), Tony Oliva (59.3), Mike Tiernan (57.4), Ross Youngs (56.5), Gavy Cravath (51.0 no extra credit), Vic Wertz (50.3), John Titus (49.9), Roy Cullenbine (46.2), Harry Hooper (45.1), Bill Nicholson (44.9), Roger Maris (44.6), Frank Howard (44.2), Chuck Klein (43.3), Sam Rice (38.7), Tommy McCarthy (15.8)

P - Jack Quinn (.903 Pennants Added), Urban Shocker (.801), Billy Pierce (.795), Tommy Bridges (.793), Burleigh Grimes (.771), Waite Hoyt (.760), Don Newcombe (.760), Bucky Walters (.741), Ed Cicotte (.741), Rube Waddell (.736), Dutch Leonard (.735), Dolph Luque (.729), George Uhle (.727), Bob Shawkey (.724), Larry French (.720), Herb Pennock (.719), Virgil Trucks (.716), Babe Adams (.715), Bobo Newsom (.715), Carl Mays (.714), Vic Willis (.708), Lon Warneke (.703), Dizzy Dean (.702), Dizzy Trout (.702), Wilbur Cooper (.695), Mel Harder (.687), Bob Friend (.685), Schoolboy Rowe (.683), Larry Jackson (.680), Paul Derringer (.676), Charlie Root (.676), Claude Passeau (.674), Curt Simmons (.672), Nap Rucker (.669), Jack Powell (.651), Lefty Gomez (.641), Eddie Rommel (.638), Murry Dickson (.625), Chief Bender (.618), Tom Zachary (.615), Hippo Vaughn (.604), Howie Pollet (.599), Addie Joss (.540), Jesse Haines (.527), Jack Chesbro (.503), Rube Marquard (.488)

RP - Stu Miller (.584), Lindy McDaniel (.557), Firpo Marberry (.504), Roy Face (.493), Ellis Kinder (.468), Syl Johnson (.401), Ron Perranoski (.387), Al Brazle (.354), Johnny Murphy (.332), Dick Radatz (.326), Clint Brown (.323)

Pre-1893 P - Mickey Welch (.553), Charlie Buffinton (.547), Jim Whitney (.542), Jim McCormick (.541), Jack Stivetts (.517), silver King (.469), Bobby Mathews (.455), Tony Mullane (.431)

Negro Leaguers - Luke Easter, Jose Mendez, Dick Redding, Dobie Moore, Ben Taylor, Bill Monroe, Quincy Trouppe, Alejandro Oms, Artie Wilson, Hilton Smith, Bus Clarkson

Some elaboration . . .

Rube Waddell - moved up last week. I've got him even with Mordecai Brown now. I feel Waddell should be a HoMer - he should have been elected instead of McGinnity and Griffith way back when. He was better than Bob Lemon - who ranks with Griffith and McGinnity as our 3 big mistakes, in my opinion. But compared to the pitchers on this ballot, I can't rank him higher. Peak-wise he's arguably the 2nd best pitcher on the ballot, behind only Dean, with Cicotte and Rucker very close, depending on how you define peak. I can't vote for him right now, but I hope we elect him.

José Méndez: I've got Walters #8 among eligible pitchers, Waddell #10 and Dizzy Trout #21. I've got George Uhle, who could also hit #12. Mendez fits somewhere in there, but that's still off the ballot.

Minnie Minoso: What's the difference between him and Edd Roush - who isn't on my ballot either. Or Orlando Cepeda? Or Rocky Colavito?

Ralph Kiner: I dropped him a fair amount last week - I've got him #17 among hitters, had him #8 overall two weeks ago. I don't think I was accounting enough for defense in the past. He's quite similar to Charley Jones, but Jones was a plus fielder, Kiner a minus. That makes all the difference in the competition this tight.

Dick Redding: My mental picture is something like Herb Pennock - nice long career, pretty good pitcher, not an immortal.

Hugh Duffy: I've got little love for Hugh. I mean he was as good a hitter as Roush - but hitters at the same position in his time has a .579 OWP, Roush's position peers had just a .530 OWP. Duffy was a good fielder, but not in a class with someone like Mike Griffin, who hit just as well, considering he played CF his whole career, while Duffy had considerable time on the corner. I just don't get it with him. Duffy played on the corners a bunch, but is still only 69 FRAA, while Griffin is 121. He wasn't anywhere near Griffin's league as an outfielder. He does have two seasons on Griffin, and was a slightly better hitter, but I don't think that makes up for Griffin's defensive advantage. And Griffin isn't on this ballot, nor is he very close to it.

Tony Oliva: Just not enough - would need about 3 more years at his career averages to become a reasonable candidate for me. You need to hit like Albert Belle or Ralph Kiner in a career of this length to be a serious candidate, and Oliva didn't do that.

Rico Petrocelli: Like Yaz, a New Yorker that grew up to play for the Red Sox, is there anything worse? There's a lot to like here - especially that 1969, WOW! He was a very good defensive player too. Was only moved off of SS because Boston aquired Luis Aparicio. But there's just not enough career here for me. Hughie Jennings was borderline for me, and Rico wasn't that good.

Willie Davis: Good player, but not a serious candidate. I like him better than Pinson because of the defense, but that's as high as I can get him.

Tommy Davis: Not as good as Willie.

Tommy Harper: Not as good as Davis.
   185. ronw Posted: August 07, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#2130308)
Andrew, what you say is perfectly fine and reasonable. I still don't see that that is what Dan did.

Dan, please let us know what your honest intentions are here - are they what Andrew is saying in #182, or what I'm saying in #165?


I vote that Dan has already explained himself, and I think his ballot should stand. In my opinion, it is not unconstitutional.
   186. OCF Posted: August 07, 2006 at 06:28 PM (#2130338)
I agree with ronw, and think that dan b's ballot should stand as is and be counted.
   187. karlmagnus Posted: August 07, 2006 at 06:36 PM (#2130359)
I don't; I think removing lost causes degrades the voting process as a whole, for everybody, and needs to be stamped on. It's the same problem as new voters who don't look back at old candidates.
   188. sunnyday2 Posted: August 07, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#2130373)
Hey, wait a minute. What about those ballots with no comments!
   189. ronw Posted: August 07, 2006 at 07:02 PM (#2130403)
karl, I agree that removing lost causes degrades the process as a whole, but I don't think Dan did that.
   190. TomH Posted: August 07, 2006 at 07:37 PM (#2130451)
agree w/ sunnyday; we have a process in place, and we need to enforce the simplest of procedures, which includes a basic explanation of someone's ballot, along with disclosure of why a top 10 guy from last election as left off.

as to Dan's ballot, yes, I'd like him to explain himself, but If He Doesn't prior to 8pm, there's no reason to pronounce him guilty; a good-faith effort was put forth, and so we ought to err on the side of assuming the intent was proper. The harm in assuming the good here is very small; the harm in mis-assuming the bad could be much greater.
   191. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 07, 2006 at 07:40 PM (#2130455)
Hey, wait a minute. What about those ballots with no comments!

I agree (though I personally don't really care about it), but that's the Commish's bailiwick.

As for Dan, going over his ballot from this year and last, I'm now inclined at this point to say that what he did was constitutional. If he were getting rid of the 19th century players, Duffy would have taken a hit (but he didn't). He also kept Bresnahan on his current ballot, who trailed both Leach and Cravath on his '81 ballot.

I also think this line is key:

They are part of the growing borderline glut, their time has passed, and after careful re-evaluation, their once hallowed spot on my ballot will be taken by comparable players of more recent vintage.

I missed it the last time. I personally have no objection (and have said so in the past) about exchanging older candidates for newer ones provided they're comparable. Therefore, I will now support Dan's ballot.
   192. DL from MN Posted: August 07, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2130490)
His stated rationale is that he'd being fair to all eras. However, I don't agree with keeping Duffy and dropping Browning, Leach and Cravath if it's only because the consensus likes them better. The consensus is wrong about Duffy :).
   193. jimd Posted: August 07, 2006 at 08:35 PM (#2130537)
I believe that voter even had slotted the lost causes on the ballot where they would have been... like some do with already inducted guys not in their PHOM. He even had a much stricter notion of lost cause as well -- that he was the *only* guy voting for a person.

Yes. I used that system from 1951-1957, when it was ruled unconstitutional. Each "lost cause" was mentioned in ballot position, but with no ballot number; it was always possible to reconstruct the alternative constitutional ballot. There was also an "algorithm" for determining when a candidate was a "lost cause" and when he would lose that status.

I'm dropping my official support for some candidates as lost causes. When I am the only supporter two years in a row, that's it, until someone else brings them back. They will remain on my ballot, but deprecated as a "lost cause".
-- (Quoted from those ballots.)

This was done as a counter to a proposal to end eligibility after N years. I saw this as a way to reduce "ballot splinter" (which was considered a problem then), while also allowing other people to monitor my true feelings so that the "lost cause" candidates could be resurrected when appropriate. The electorate collectively appears to no longer be bothered by "ballot splinter", so it is now a solution to a non-problem.

The then deprecated candidates were Maranville, Dunlap, Fielder Jones and Veach. Maranville is now enjoying somewhat of a renaissance, Dunlap and Jones have picked up occasional votes since then, and Veach remains a totally "lost cause".
   194. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 08:36 PM (#2130540)
As for the unexplained ballots, I agree we need to quash that too.

Vaux and Rusty are 'experienced' voters and as such, I think a warning and a request for an explanation if possible before 8 p.m. is more in order here than a dropping of their ballots. They both participate in the discussion, etc.. From what I can tell it looks like Vaux is only explaining new candidates each year.

Going forward, I'll try to keep a better eye on this as well.
   195. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 07, 2006 at 08:38 PM (#2130546)
test
   196. OCF Posted: August 07, 2006 at 08:45 PM (#2130558)
James Newburg's ballot (#173) also seems awfully light on explanation.
   197. sunnyday2 Posted: August 07, 2006 at 09:05 PM (#2130587)
Well, Vaux is a new voter...
   198. Chris Fluit Posted: August 07, 2006 at 09:22 PM (#2130619)
Last week was a pretty hectic week for me so I didn't get my ballot in mid-week as per my usual routine. However, I've been encouraged to still make sure and get my ballot in before the deadline rather than missing this vote. So here we go, with only minimal comments due to time constraints...

1. Hank Aaron, OF (n/e). black ink in '55-'57, '59-'61, '63, '65-'67, '69 and '71 for 12 seasons! gray ink from '55-'73 for 19 seasons! 1st all-time in home runs, total bases and rbi, 3rd in hits, 4th in runs and 9th in doubles

2. Frank Robinson, OF (n/e). black ink from '60-'62 and '66 for the second best peak among batters. gray ink from '56 to '74 for a prime that's just as long as Hammerin' Hank's. 6th all-time in home runs, top twenty all-time in runs, total bases and rbi. Trails only Aaron in peak and career numbers on this ballot.

3. Jose Mendez, P.
4. Cannonball Dick Redding, P. Every bit as good as some of their contemporaries that are already in the Hall of Merit.

5. Nellie Fox, 2B.
6. Quincy Trouppe, C. The best respectively at their positions.

7. Billy Pierce, P. His time should come soon. He's better than other pitchers from the '30s and '60s who are already enshrined.

8. Billy Williams, OF (n/e). I'm surprised he ended up this low. My initial assessment would have had him 5th, but with significant black ink in only three seasons ('68, '70 and '72), he falls behind a few other players. At the same time, I'm having a hard time justifying having him this high 'cause he isn't that far ahead of Duffy or Minoso.

9. Luis Aparicio, SS. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did better than any of the others.

10. Orlando Cepeda, 1B. Like Williams, I'm not entirely comfortable with Cepeda's position. I could see him going higher or lower, and was hoping to be able to do a re-eval before this ballot was due.

11. Don Newcombe, P. My newest pet project.

12. Minnie Minoso, OF.
13. Hugh Duffy, OF. Two very deserving outfielders.

14. Mickey Welch, P.
15. Ralph Kiner, OF. These two hang on to the last two spots. That means that my previous pet project (Ernie Lombardi) drops out but even though I've had Lombardi higher than Welch and Kiner in the past, I just can't see knocking either of these guys completely off the ballot.

new eligibles:
Bill Freehan, my third ranked catcher right now behind Trouppe and Lombardi. That puts him in the teens.
Willie Davis, not as good as Pinson who I had in the '20s.
Tony Oliva, great guy but not good enough to bump somebody else off

necessary disclosures:
Joe Sewell, the second-best shortstop. he's been on my ballot before and is currently sitting 17th.
Cupid Childs, not overly impressed.
   199. KJOK Posted: August 07, 2006 at 09:28 PM (#2130632)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. HANK AARON, RF. 81 POW, 212 WARP1, 822 RCAP & .719 OWP in 13,940 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Had a SEVENTEEN YEAR peak…

2. FRANK ROBINSON, RF/LF. 65 POW, 165 WARP1, 674 RCAP & .717 OWP in 11,743 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’d be #1 on the ballot most years.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

4. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Better than Ernie Banks. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

7. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

8. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

9. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

10. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking. Close to Marichal also.

11. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

12. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

13. JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps, only a little better. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

14. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

15. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

BILLY WILLIAMS, LF. 24 POW, 120 WARP1, 273 RCAP & .636 OWP in 10,519 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. When you contemporaries are Aaron & Robinson, it’s hard to compare favorably. Not as good as Bob Johnson.

BILL FREEHAN, C. 18 POW, 76 WARP1, 188 RCAP & .554 OWP in 6,899 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Just misses the ballot for now.

TONY OLIVA, RF. 20 POW, 72 WARP1, 192 RCAP & .635 OWP in 6,879 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Lack of post-30 year old career definitely hurts him vs. peers.

RICO PETROCELLI, SS/3B. 15 POW, 70 WARP1, 102 RCAP & .519 OWP in 6,170 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Nice player.

RETURNEES:

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still better than him, such as Childs.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.
   200. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 07, 2006 at 09:39 PM (#2130647)
For the sake of completeness, I'll write a general ballot explanation.

My evaluation is back to a Win-Shares based method, though I look at WARP numbers and other evidence discussed by the electorate.

Aaron and Robinson need little, if any, introduction. Keller's peak/prime is slightly, but significantly better than B. Williams, which makes the difference. B. Williams barely edges Freehan after I figure in a catcher bonus. The backlog, which is essentially everyone below fifth place on my ballot, remains consistent with my ballots over the previous several years. The only movement of significance is Redding dropping a few spots in light of new statistical evidence.
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