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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, August 14, 2006

1983 Ballot

New candidates: Dick Allen, Joe Torre, Jim Wynn, Brooks Robinson, and Boog Powell.

Top-ten returnees: Billy Williams, José Méndez, Bill Freehan, Joe Sewell , Ralph Kiner, Billy Pierce, Minnie Minoso, and Rube Waddell.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 11:28 AM | 110 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 11:38 AM (#2139986)
I'll post my own ballot sometime this week.

Here's Sunnyday2's"

1983

1. Dobie Moore (3-2-2, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

2. Dick Allen (new, PHoM 1983)—and another mighty peak

3. Ralph Kiner (4-3-3, PHoM 1964)—there’s not just those 7 HR titles, but all those BB, too

4. Rube Waddell (5-5-4, PHoM 1932)—second highest ERA+ available, and it turns out after all these years that his UER were not outside the norm; plus some super MiL pitching in the ‘90s

5. Brooks Robinson (new, PHoM 1983)—I’m torn, part of me says he wasn’t that great (OPS+ 104) but everything else on his resume points to here, so here he is

6. Bill Freehan (7-new)—Freehan becomes, far and away, the best available catcher and, given our catcher shortage, he goes here; if I were building a team ca. early 1960s, I’d take Freehan over Billy Williams (but not over Brooksie). And frankly I would take Freehan over Dick Allen, but that’s a different deal.

7. Larry Doyle (6-6-6, PHoM 1975)—15 years of 15+ WS, I don’t see another eligible “glove” who did that, plus same OPS+ as Edd Roush and 5 points more than Hugh Duffy

8. Edd Roush (10-8-8, PHoM 1976)—really belongs ahead of Averill and Duffy, on reconsideration

9. Charley Jones (7-7-8, PHoM 1921)—would be ahead of Williams with blacklist credit, just behind him without it

10. Pete Browning (11-9-12, PHoM 1961)—monstrous offense, comp is Dick Allen but Browning’s defense and intangibles (not Allen’s) move him down

11. Billy Williams (8-new)—a little bit overrated by history, a borderline BBWAA HoF choice, more of a VC type choice IMO

12. Addie Joss (12-10-9, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available

13. Nellie Fox (16-17-19, PHoM 1971)—bounces back up, I tend not to value defense enough, trying to correct this week

14. Joe Torre (new)—tough to slot but the fact is he caught a lot of games and wasn’t horrible

15. Jose Mendez (14-13-10, PHoM 1957)—this is with essentially no credit at all for his hitting and his SS years

Drops Out

16. Frank Howard (13-13-11)—monster OPS+, better than Cash through prime years

17. Orlando Cepeda (15-14-x)—better than Cash through prime years

Also Close

(17a. Stan Hack [16a-16a-13a])
18. Minnie Minoso (16-16-13, PHoM 1970)—I give 2 NeL seasons though at well below peak level
(18a. Bobby Doerr [17a-20a-19b])
19. Charlie Keller (22-22-21)— the ultimate peak only candidate (among position players)
20. Tommy Bond (21-19-27, PHoM 1929)—the ultimate peak only candidate (among pitchers)

21. Phil Rizzuto (20-20-20)—you want defense? Here’s your guy
(21a. Don Drysdale [20a-23a-19a])
22. Hilton Smith (18-15-15)—the pitcher I wanted Redding to be?
23. Elston Howard (29-29-25)—much better than I had thought
24. Norm Cash (24-24-x)—underrated, for sure, until now
25. Ed Williamson (23-21-39, PHoM 1924)—still the best 3B available after all these years

26. Hugh Duffy (26-26-18)—up and down, up and down, just not much peak after that one big year
27. Dizzy Dean (34-35-30)
(27a. Jim Bunning (27a-23c-19c)—somewhere below Drysdale)

28. Joe Sewell (27-25-22)—wish those final 5 years had been at SS instead of 3B
29. Ken Boyer (42-34-30)
30. Dick Redding (31-28-26, PHoM 1971)

They also ran

31. Vern Stephens (40-44-41)
(31a. Richie Ashburn [29a-25a-22a])
32. Dick Lundy (36-36-31)
33. Bobby Estalella (25-23-14)—if his skin was either lighter or darker, he would have had a more conventional career (MLs or NeLs) and might be a PHoMer by now; as it is his career is very hard to get a handle on, but the ability was there
34. Alejandro Oms (28-27-16)—another guy I can’t get a handle on
35. Vic Willis (19-18-17, PHoM 1977)

36. Chuck Klein (37-37-32)
37. Al Rosen (43-38-33)
38. Hack Wilson (32-31-24)
39. Wally Berger (33-32-28)
40. Cupid Childs (39-46-43, PHoM 1925)

41. Jim McCormick (30-30-23)
42. Jim Wynn (new)—how did he slip all the way down here? I thought he would be in the 20s….
43. Quincy Trouppe (35-42-38)—no longer the best catcher around
44. Pie Traynor (47-40-36)
45. Roger Bresnahan (48-50-47)
(45a. Biz Mackey [50a-50a-48a])


46. Gavvy Cravath (38-43-40)
47. Dave Bancroft (49-x-50)
48. Mickey Welch (41-33-29)
(48a. Willie Keeler [50d-50d-48d])
49. Tony Oliva (x-new)
50. Frank Chance (44-39-34)
(50a. Wes Ferrell [50c-50c-48c])


51. Bob Elliott (45-49-46)
52. Bob Johnson (46-48-45)
(52a. Jimmy Sheckard [50e-x-50a])
53. Bucky Walters (x-x-48)
54. Ernie Lombardi (x)
55. Eddie Cicotte (x)

56. Bill Monroe (x-47-44)
57. Lefty Gomez (50-x-49)—all the way down to about here, I have harbored an intention to vote for all of these guys at one time or another, and have voted for many of them
(57a. Red Faber [50b-50b-48b])
58. Tommy Leach (x)
59. Ben Taylor (x)
60. Bobby Veach (x)

Really Dropped Out

xx. Tony Mullane (x-41-37)
(xxa. Early Wynn [xa-42a-39a)
xx. Mike Tiernan (x-45-42)

Required

Billy Pierce is the only required disclosure not in my top 50, he’s somewhere in the 70s-80s I guess
   2. yest Posted: August 14, 2006 at 12:32 PM (#2140000)
1983 ballot
Oliva and Brooks make my PHOM this year

1. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
10. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
11. Brooks Robinson the biggest difference in fielding between the best fielder at his position and the 2nd best(makes my personal HoM this year)
12. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
15. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
16. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Joe Torre hard to place someone who played so many positions in a year
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Bill Freehan great fielder and good power
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
27. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
30. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year
31. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
32. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times
33. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. Billy Williams much worse then I expected
36. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
37. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
38. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
39. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
40. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
41. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe League stats seem to show he lacked
Billy Pierce not good enough long enough
Richie Dick Allen based on numbers alone I’ll put him in the 20’s-30’s but his extra credit (cause I think it caused his team many games) shoots him down quit a bit
Jimmy Wynn (a 250 BA) (way to many strikeouts) (overrated fielder) and (wasn’t hurt by his park half as bad as some make it out to be(hit 263/382/457 in the astrodome versus 250/366/436 for his career (PS: I know the second number is brought down by subpar seasons at the end of his career but the point is there)))
   3. rawagman Posted: August 14, 2006 at 12:51 PM (#2140012)
1983 Ballot - A very busy week for me. A long weekend away with the girlfriend (now fiancee), planning my visit to Toronto. Lots of work. The new players are subject to change next time around, and I hope that my new career measures will be ready for the 1984 election.Don Drysdale rises out of my backlog into my PHOM and he is joined by newcomer Joe Torre.

1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher (PHOM)
3)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
4)Joe Sewell (PHOM) - Hard to argue with contact.
5)Joe Torre (PHOM) - Fielding better than I had expected.
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes. In a backlog full of uncertainties, I believe in Lefty. (PHOM)
((6a)Don Drysdale - I took a closer look at your ink - you were good - top the backlog and in)) (PHOM)
7)Jose Mendez - too bad ESPN didn't show his plaque.
((7a)Willard Brown - I had been underestimating him severely. His reputation enhances his already wonderful numbers.))
8)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime and glove than Beckley. This ranking may be an understatement.
9)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder.
10)Brooks Robinson - I haven't yet fleshed out my new career measurements, so I'm guesstimating a little here. The glove is a no-brainer
11)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week.
12)Dick Allen - Like I said, it's been a very busy week. Allen's bat with Robinson's glove would be a #1 in most years. Brooks' bat with Dick's glove would not really be of any interest at all.
13)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak!
14)Billy Williams - Quite the sweet swing he had. His career with Kiner's peak would look something like Frank Robinson.
15)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
16)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
17)Orlando Cepeda - He dropped a few slots this week with the compariosn to Dick Allen.
((17a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
18)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
19)Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.
20)Nellie Fox - Low OPS+, but he is an exception to that measurement. SLG is negligible for him, he did quite well with the rest.
21)Ken Boyer - so close. Still my highest ranking 3B. At least for now.
22)Wally Berger - super-underrated
23)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((23)Juan Marichal))
24)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
25)Roger Bresnahan
26)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
((26a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
27)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
28)Jimmy Wynn - Very good, but just enoughg for #4 among CF's for me.
29)Chuck Klein
((29a)Joe Gordon - neither here nor there. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
30)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges
31)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
32)Pete Browning
33)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent.
34)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
35)Cupid Childs
36)Phil Rizzuto
37)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
38)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
39)John McGraw
40)Jimmy Ryan
41)Boog Powell - I can live with Boog slotting between Norm Cash and Jake Beckley among 1B.
42)Alejandro Oms
43)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
44)Luke Easter
45)Johnny Evers
46)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
47)George Kell
48)Bobby Veach
49)Bob Elliott
50)Bucky Walters
51)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
52)Fred Dunlap
53)Jim Bottomley
54)Bob Johnson
55)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
56)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough (not anything) surrounding it.
57)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for prue "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
58)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
59)Tony Lazerri
60)Dolf Camilli
61)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
62)Johnny Pesky
63)Hippo Vaughn
64)Bus Clarkson - A newcomer to the consideration set. More shades of Quincy.
65)Tony Oliva
66)Tip O'Neill
67)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
68)Denny Lyons
69)Cecil Travis - 2nd all-time for most war credit (Ted Williams). 4 years is a lot of credit.
70)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
71)Lon Warneke
72)Don Newcombe
73)Rocky Colavito
74)Jack Clements
75)Cy Williams
   4. karlmagnus Posted: August 14, 2006 at 01:19 PM (#2140019)
Brooks Robinson longish career, but not a good enough hitter – as a SS he’d have been HOMable, but not as a 3B – add 15 to his OPS+ he’s still under 120. Hugely overrated by WS; bottom of consideration set. Dick Allen was a 3B too some of the time, and a very much better hitter. Better than Kiner, not quite Mize, but modest bonus for his 3B play. Torre was a catcher as well as a 3B; with 15 points bonus his OPS+ goes to 144 and it wasn’t that short a career. Better than I expected, just below Allen, easily a HOMer – far, far better than Freehan. Wynn extremely short career and not that good, off bottom of consideration set – WS mistake here too, giving him more WS than Powell. Powell better than Wynn, but short career, bottom of consideration set, put him just below Freehan.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve just elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14-12-12-13-14-13-9-9-5) Rube Waddell. Up again on further reexamination of the minor league credit question. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, and UER were high but not exceptional. If you give minor league credit, he goes to say 3300-3400IP, and is clearly a HOMer.

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A) Dick Allen. Not quite Browning, better than Jones. OPS+156 but short career (1848 hits) TB+BB/PA .584, TB+BB/Outs .895. MUCH better than Kiner.

8. (N/A) Joe Torre. Super hitter for a catcher or 3B, which he was most of the time. OPS+129, 2342 hits. TB+BB/PA.493, TB+BB/Outs .734.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.
   5. karlmagnus Posted: August 14, 2006 at 01:19 PM (#2140020)
11. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

12. (N/A-12) Billy Williams. Longish career, highish quality; not Beckley, not Clemente/Kaline, but better than Kiner/F. Howard because lasted longer. TB+BB/PA .536, TB+BB/Outs.810

13. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

14. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12-13-12-13-13-14) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

15. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

17. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

18. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

19. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

23. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

24. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays

25. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
26. Orlando Cepeda
27. Norm Cash
28. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
29. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
30. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
31. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Billy Pierce.
34. Sal Maglie.
35. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
36. (N/A) Heinie Manush
37. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
38. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
39. Bob Elliott
40. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
41. (N/A) Dick Lundy
42. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
43. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
44. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
45. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren.
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Bill Freehan. Much shorter career than McGuire, and only slightly better. 1591 hits at OPS+112 (1636 adjusted to 130 game season.) TB+BB/PA .453, TB+BB/Outs .653.

49. Boog Powell 1776 hits, OPS+134, short career. TB+BB/PA .514 TB+BB/Outs .773
50. Jack Quinn
51. Tony Mullane
52. Pye Traynor
53. Jim McCormick
54. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
55. Joe Judge
56. Edd Roush
57. Spotswood Poles.
58. Larry Doyle
59. Curt Simmons
60. Roger Bresnahan.
61. Wayte Hoyt.
62. Harry Hooper.
63. Brooks Robinson – not a good enough hitter. 2848 hits TB+BB/PA .435, TB+BB/outs .615, OPS+104.
64. Vada Pinson
65. Gil Hodges
66. Jules Thomas.
67. Wilbur Cooper
68. Bruce Petway.
69. Jack Clements
70. Bill Monroe
71. Jose Mendez Even I9 has him below 200 wins, and Chris has him at an ERA+ of 121. Since I think the projections are optimistic anyway (especially I9s) I'll pass, thanks. I think we already have too many NgL players, by any actuarial standard, and I wouldn't elect any more other than possibly Trouppe.
72. Herb Pennock
73. Chief Bender
74. Ed Konetchy
75. Jesse Tannehill
76. Bobby Veach
77. Lave Cross
78. Tommy Leach.
79. Tom York
   6. yest Posted: August 14, 2006 at 01:28 PM (#2140025)
too bad ESPN didn't show his plaque.
here's the plaque
   7. TomH Posted: August 14, 2006 at 01:42 PM (#2140028)
karl -
of your top 30 (two ballot's worth), you have 1 second baseman (Cupid), 1 shortstop (Stephens), and less than 1 third baseman (Torre/Allen). You wish to be that harsh on the infielders?
   8. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 14, 2006 at 02:18 PM (#2140054)
girlfriend (now fiancee)

Wagaman, congrats on getting a financier! ; )
   9. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 02:19 PM (#2140055)
11. Brooks Robinson the biggest difference in fielding between the best fielder at his position and the 2nd best

Maybe up to 1983 (I'm personally not that sure of it), but Ozzie Smith owns that crown lock, stock, and barrell in 2006, IMO.
   10. ronw Posted: August 14, 2006 at 02:25 PM (#2140060)
1983 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Dick Allen – 29.9 bWS/700PA, 6 MVP, 9 AS. I don’t think the character issues were the problem that people make them out to be. Plus, I voted Joe Jackson #1 each of his eligible years, so maybe I just don't care. There is no question the man hit like a HOMer.

2. Billy Williams – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 12 AS. Zack Wheat redux. A fine selection, just not this year.

3. Dick Redding I think his teens peak is higher than we realize. However, those ‘20’s numbers are looming large. Seems like he could be similar to Juan Marichal as far as overall value and highish peak.

4. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

5. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

6. Brooks Robinson – 14.7 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. Would have one of the lowest bWS/700PA rates of any electee. Bobby Wallace (14.7), Monte Ward (13.8) and Biz Mackey (12.8 MLE) are equal to or lower. Still he was a fine fielder and had a slight peak.

7. Joe Sewell 15.8 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. My fraternity brother has a similar case to Robinson, but a few extra non-All-Star years pushes Brooks ahead.

8. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

9. Bill Freehan – 17.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Outstanding, underrated player. Supplants Bresnahan as the best unelected catcher. Not higher because even with better equipment and longer schedule, he would have the lowest PA among our elected catchers, other than 19th century guys.

10. Joe Torre – 20.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. Part-time catcher like Bresnahan. Should be HOMer like Bresnahan.

11. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

12. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

13. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. I didn’t realize how dominant he was during the early 1890’s, but that might be the Win Shares talking.

14. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

15. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

16. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

17. Ralph Kiner 24.2 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 8 AS. Not quite enough for this ballot.

18. Jimmy Wynn 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

19. Minnie Minoso 21.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS (including Negro Leagues). Really neck-and-neck with Kiner.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES


Missing top 10


Billy Pierce – 22.1 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 7 AS. The best remaining pitcher from the ‘50’s. I don’t think he has quite enough. He needs a higher peak based on his relatively short # of All-Star seasons.

Rube Waddell – 23.8 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 5 AS. Just not enough relative IP to his time.

New Notables

Boog Powell – 23.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 6 AS. I thought he’d fare better.
   11. karlmagnus Posted: August 14, 2006 at 02:57 PM (#2140077)
TomH, 2B, 3B, SS and catcher should together be 2/3x4/8 = 1/3 of my ballot, or 5 of the top 15, 10 of the top 30. In my top 15 I have Allen, Torre, Lombardi, Schang, Childs and Stephens or 6/15; in the next 15 I have Trouppe and Lazzeri. Bit short in the second 15 but perfectly OK in the first, therefore. Catcher's a "glove" position too, and I think the HOM's short on them; particularly Schnozz looks to me a glaring omission. Where we differ is I am not prpared to add more than 25 OPS+ points for fielding, so Rabbit Maranville still doesn't make it, nor does Fox, nor does Brooks, who only gets about 15 because he was a 3B not a SS.
   12. yest Posted: August 14, 2006 at 03:08 PM (#2140088)
John Marnivlle is a lot closer to Ozzie then anybody else is to (Collins, Santo, Schmidt, Kamm ext.) Brooks
   13. DL from MN Posted: August 14, 2006 at 03:46 PM (#2140121)
1983 ballot
I'm going with the revised scoring system, I liked the results. I may have to tweak it slightly to boost pitching after I finish rescoring the HoM electees.

1) Billy Williams - well rounded player with a long, productive career
2) Joe Torre - Great hitter for a C/3B, put up Ernie Banks type value at 1B
3) Dick Allen - all he did well was hit but he did it very well
4) Brooks Robinson - I had to zero out the beginning and the end but he had a very long string of All Star but not MVP seasons
5) Bob Johnson - Another well rounded player but he wasn't quite as good as Billy Williams
6) Billy Pierce - may move up yet if I boost pitching. I like him better than the already elected Bunning and Marichal and he was very close to Ford and Drysdale
7) Norm Cash - good defender, great bat
8) Jake Beckley - moves up this year as I try to be fairer to all eras
9) Jose Mendez - pitchers from his era moved up so I'm moving him with them
10) Quincy Trouppe - I still think he's the best catcher on the ballot, but not the best C/3B hybrid this year
11) Ken Boyer - I like his glove a lot and his bat had a higher peak than Brooks
12) Jim Wynn - His value is hidden because he walked a lot, played in the Astrodome, was a terrific defender, didn't last long into his 30s. Stole bases at a 70% clip
13) Joe Sewell - Another player with time at 3B. Guess this is year of the 3B
14) Orlando Cepeda - Another one dimensional hitter, better attitude than Allen but not nearly the bat
15) Minnie Minoso - I like players who do many things well for more than a few seasons

16-20) Tommy Bridges, George Burns, Tommy Leach, Gavy Cravath, Bob Elliott
21-25) Virgil Trucks, Dutch Leonard, Frank Howard, Dave Bancroft, Ralph Kiner (big move down)
26-30) Charlie Keller, Edd Roush, Cupid Childs, Jack Quinn, Boog Powell
31-35) Dick Redding, Vic Willis, Dick Bartell, Rube Waddell, Johnny Evers
36-42) Urban Shocker, Rocky Colavito, Dobie Moore, Bill Freehan, Jimmy Ryan, Hilton Smith, Wally Schang
   14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 03:48 PM (#2140123)
John Marnivlle is a lot closer to Ozzie

Here's the problem, yest: during the Rabbit's time, there were 19 shortstops with at least 500 assists/162 games, compared to only 5 during the Wizard's era. Unless you think shortstops of Maranville's time were superior to modern shortstops (even old fogie sports writers and players wouldn't agree with that), it looks pretty clear to me that it was much easier to rack up assists (or a high range factor, for that matter) during Maranville's time.

Comparing him to his contemporaries, it's not clear that the Rabbit was the superior shortstop. However, it's extremely clear that Smith dominated his time period like nobody ever did.
   15. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 14, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#2140129)
Maybe up to 1983 (I'm personally not that sure of it), but Ozzie Smith owns that crown lock, stock, and barrell in 2006, IMO.

This statement peaked my interest. So using BP's RATE and est def G at SS, I checked into it.

NAME         RATE  G AT SS (per BP)
--------------------------
Smith         110   2422

Tinker        112   1712
Glasscock     111   1621
Dahlen        110   2112
McBride       110   1607
G Smith       109   1657
Maranville    108   2134
Marion        108   1485
Honus         108   1879
Boudreau      108   1499
Fernandez     108   1499
Bartell       108   1660
Speier        108   1762 


Without any further adjustment for schedule, I'd have to say it's a tough call. Smith has 2 seasons worth of games on Dahlen, and probably would have the same amount on Glasscock (and certainly on Tinker) once adjusted for schedule. How close does close need to be before John's statement is considered true or false? I don't know.

That said, if Tinker had gone on to play 2422 games like Ozzie did, but he never again saved a run above average (so 710 more games, 0 FRAA), his RATE would decrease from 112 to 109, and he would be still be very directly comparable with Ozzie. Doing the same with Glasscock puts him at 107; doing it with Dahlen puts him at 109, just like Tinker.

Again, I don't know what the interval is proving this statement true or false, but Smith appears to be an historic fielder per this source, though there are other fielders who get very close to his rate of run saving.
   16. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 03:59 PM (#2140133)
Again, I don't know what the interval is proving this statement true or false, but Smith appears to be an historic fielder per this source, though there are other fielders who get very close to his rate of run saving.

It's the combined rate and length of career that propel Smith into the stratosphere for me, Eric.
   17. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 04:03 PM (#2140141)
So using BP's RATE and est def G at SS

Does that factor in qualiity of competition, Eric?
   18. Chris Fluit Posted: August 14, 2006 at 04:17 PM (#2140152)
6 ballots. 6 different players placed first. We might be challenging some of the old records with this vote.
   19. yest Posted: August 14, 2006 at 04:19 PM (#2140154)
assists/162 games, compared to only 5 during the Wizard's era. Unless you think shortstops of Maranville's time were superior to modern shortstops
Maranville's advantge was putouts but obviosly Ozzie is much better though not as much as Brooks compaired to his nearest competitor
   20. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 14, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2140174)
It's the combined rate and length of career that propel Smith into the stratosphere for me, Eric.

But the question is, does Smith tower over the competition. I'm not sure. Dahlen, especially is close in games at SS and has the same RATE...but [looks more closely at Dahlen's prospectus card] he also played 229 games at 3B with a 111 RATE, mostly during his early years, not during his decline, and during a time when 3B was more important defensively. I think it's out of the realm to say that Smith doesn't completely wipe out his nearest competition, namely Dahlen (with props to Tinker and Glasscock).
   21. DL from MN Posted: August 14, 2006 at 05:09 PM (#2140204)
12 elect me votes, 10 different candidates. No elect-me's yet for Brooks Robinson or last year's top 5 returners Jose Mendez & Bill Freehan. This is a free for all. Better yet, we get to redo the same ballot minus the top 2 next year.
   22. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 05:31 PM (#2140231)
Maranville's advantge was putouts

Though not as extreme as the assists, it's the same problem, yest.

I think it's out of the realm to say that Smith doesn't completely wipe out his nearest competition, namely Dahlen (with props to Tinker and Glasscock).

But is BP taking into account quality of competition when figuring out rate? Unless I'm mistaken, it's not stated in their glossary.
   23. TomH Posted: August 14, 2006 at 05:39 PM (#2140237)
with rate, they do not, but with rate2 they attempt to
   24. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: August 14, 2006 at 05:49 PM (#2140254)
Maybe up to 1983 (I'm personally not that sure of it), but Ozzie Smith owns that crown lock, stock, and barrell in 2006, IMO.


I am gleefully anticipating his HoM thread...that should be a great debate.
   25. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#2140270)
with rate, they do not, but with rate2 they attempt to

Thanks, Tom.

According to FRAA all-time, Smith dwarfs Dahlen at short, so there is a conflict between that measure and Rate2.
   26. Mark Donelson Posted: August 14, 2006 at 06:15 PM (#2140282)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

pHOM: Allen and Freehan. I made a few adjustments, giving Freehan and Williams slight nudges up after conservative first-year placements, but otherwise most of my analysis was of the new guys after my big re-evaluation last time out.

1983 ballot:

1. Dick Allen (pHOM 1983). By my peak metrics, he comes out as something like the fourth-best 1B we’ve seen so far, quite close to Mize (he’s hard to compare directly to the ABC gang)—and that’s before giving him any positional bonus whatsoever for his time at 3B. I don’t buy into the clubhouse-cancer thing all that much in the first place, but I’m also not sure you can be enough of one to cancel that out without serially murdering your teammates. I don’t care that Allen is all offense, either—I give other players boosts for good/great defense, rather than taking anything away for bad D.

2. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Comparable with some of the best ML pitchers of his era, and those are some pretty shiny names. I loved seeing his HOF plaque—thanks for the link, yest!

3. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much (especially with the revelation that they’re not even as bad as they at first seemed).

4. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m pretty confident this guy was the real deal.

5. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I have to say I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least for anyone with as much of a peak emphasis as I have.

6. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). I’m convinced he was the class of his position at his time, dominant for long enough to get my vote.

7. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

8. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

9. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). A peak I just couldn’t argue around anymore. With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

10. Bill Freehan (pHOM 1983). Nearly identical to Elston Howard, but the slightly better five-year peak edges out Howard’s possibly very slightly better defense.

11. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.

12. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

13. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he presents an awfully appealing peak.

[13a. Enos Slaughter. Looking again at his numbers alongside those of Clemente and Kaline made me realize I’d done Country wrong. He’s next in line for my pHOM, among the backlog.]

14. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). After my reconsideration, I found I’d been underrating Howard a bit. The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

15. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). He finally makes it back to my ballot (first time since 1973). Another very short peak, but five great years at this position are enough for me.
   27. Mark Donelson Posted: August 14, 2006 at 06:18 PM (#2140287)
16-20: C. Jones (1976), Torre, Trouppe (1967), Browning (1979), B. Robinson
21-25: Walters (1968), Cravath, Pierce, Fox, Wynn
26-30: Gomez, Bresnahan (1973), Berger, [Faber], F. Howard, McGraw
31-35: B. Williams, H. Smith, Roush, Pesky, Redding (1975)
36-40: Trout, Boyer, Joss, [Reese], H. Wilson, [Lyons], Leach
41-45: [Wynn], Oms, [W. Ford], McCormick, Doyle, Minoso, Chance
46-50: J. Ryan, Elliott, Cepeda, [Lemon], G. Burns, Colavito

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Billy Williams. Another of the solid-prime players who don’t float my boat, quite. He’s not quite as good as the likes of Kaline/Clemente, and in this tight pack that drops him quite a bit. Better than Minoso, though; he seems overall similar to Roush, perhaps slightly better. That puts him at #31, a notch up from last time.

•Sewell. There’s just not remotely enough peak here for me. In my re-evaluation, Stephens jumps over him again, and now both are just outside my top 50.

•Pierce. Not quite the peak of my favorite nonelected eligible pitchers (other than that one year), but I think he’s still one of the best of his era—notably better than Ford, in fact. He’s at #23 now; the new eligibles keep bumping his pHOM entry off year by year, but he’ll get there eventually.

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren: very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. At #44.

•Brooks Robinson. An awful lot like Boyer, who I’m not overly high on, so the question is: How much of a boost do I give him because WS underrates defense? Given his reputation, then and now, as well as the defensive numbers, I’ve given him a lot, but it still isn’t quite enough to get him on ballot. He’ll make my pHOM shortly, though. Debuts at #20.

•Torre. As with Norm Cash, I resist the temptation to overvalue the one outlying peak season, but he gets position boosts that help him out, too. It’s a bit complicated figuring out exactly how much to give him, of course…in the end, I can’t see him above Freehan or Howard (or Rosen), so he ends up just off-ballot. He’ll get there soon enough. Starts at #17.

•Wynn. Looking at the raw numbers, I thought I’d like him better, and there’s no question he’s underrated historically. But the dominance I’m looking for in non-defense-heavy OF candidates—even at CF in this era—isn’t there. He’s now second on my CF list in the backlog, but closer to #3 (Berger) than to #1 (Duffy). Starts at #25. That may be too high, even.

•Powell. Not really in my (recently narrowed down) consideration set; falls somewhere around Gil Hodges at the position.
   28. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 14, 2006 at 07:29 PM (#2140359)
According to FRAA all-time, Smith dwarfs Dahlen at short, so there is a conflict between that measure and Rate2.

In fairness, I used RATE1. But as you all know, those WARPy competition adjustments give me the heebeejeebees, so I'm going to just have to say that different measures give you different ideas, and leave it for another day. As the Samori says, Smith's going to be a fun discussion, and a tough one.
   29. jingoist Posted: August 14, 2006 at 07:35 PM (#2140369)
Not sure how someone could rationaly like Beckley and not like Brooks Robinson.
Long career; long prime; low peak; tons of hits; modicum of power. Both corner infielders, steady influences on their respective teams; each won (or would have won if it had existed back then) an MVP.
Likewise, for a group of guys who are concerned over a lack of 3B-men in the HoM, voters "passed" on Pie Traynor many years back when he was clearly the cream of the crop of 3b-men for 20 years. Perhaps you should reconsider Brooks' contibutions in light of the desire for a "more balanced" HoM?
   30. TomH Posted: August 14, 2006 at 08:12 PM (#2140421)
1983 Ballot
voting early, about to celebrate our 24th anniversary for a few days :)

Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or RCAP adjusted for defense and timeline. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes (or value above average) higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Brooks Robinson
Did more good 3Bmen play in Brooks’ day than in years before? Yes. But he still out-hit the avg 3Bman (RCAP), and when you add the big D and career length, he comes out #1 here, even tho he’s overrated in general. The HoM has been good not to quickly honor defense-only guys such as Maz and Aparicio, but Brooks could do both.
Only a 104 OPS+ for his career, but if you knock out the lousy early and late years, you have a 110 OPS+ over 2441 games. Add in approx 12 runs saved a year with the glove and you’re up to 125 OPS+ for a long-career third baseman.
2- Joe Torre
Complicated to place him, but he could hit and did play a lot of catcher, so he’s in, baby.
3- Billy Williams (3) [3]
Above his most comparable player on this ballot, Mister Beckley.
4- Joe Sewell (4) [6]
Great fielder, very good bat for a shortstop. I don’t fully discount his move to3B at the end, since it seems clear he still could have played shortstop if needed.
5- Billy Pierce (6) [8]
Similar to Bucky Walters, but no spiked peak. Some bonus value out of the bullpen.
6- Jake Beckley (7) [14]
Very fine career, understated by Win Shares.
7- John McGraw (8) [39]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen. The HoM is short of 1890s infielders. Big hit on my consensus score.
8- Bucky Walters (5) [23]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
9- Ken Boyer (9) [16]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader.
10- Cupid Childs (10) [11]
Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him. Consistently the best at his position, which not many on this ballot can say.
11- Bill Freehan (off) [5]
Wow. I was too young to appreciate his prime, growing up on Fisk/Bench/Munson, but why didn’t anyone tell me I missed someone that good just a few years earlier?
12- George Van Haltren (11) [19]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
13- Dick Allen {new}
To enumerate what I think of Mr. Allen’s candidacy would require about seventeen “on the other hand” s. Quick summary: His stats are clearly HoM-worthy. He had less long-term value to his teams, but some of this was specific time/place/circumstances, so he still belongs. But I hedge.
14- Bob Johnson (12) [21]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists. Better according to WARP than Dick Allen!
15- Minnie Minoso (13) [9]
Very similar to Bob Johnson.

Jimmy Wynn-
I was TOYing with putting him on my ballot, but he just missed being CANNONized.

Top 10 disclosures: Kiner #19, Waddell #26 (not one of the best few pitchers of his era), Mendez #25 (I’m not a peak voter)
   31. DanG Posted: August 14, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2140438)
My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #2 were elected. The backlog grows in 1983 with the quartet of Torre, Allen, B. Robinson and Wynn coming on. A four-year backlog bonanza begins in 1984, when Fregosi and Wood lead a weak freshman class. An elect-3 year in 1985 has no obvious HoMers, with Brock and Munson having the most impressive cachet.

1) Billy Williams (3,ne,ne) – Consensus top-150 player. Tougher league edges him over Brooks - contrary to the consensus: IMO this is because Billy was a “loser” (like Santo) while Brooks was a “winner”.

2) Brooks Robinson – The old career lover strikes again. Nothing resembling a top-100 player, despite Bill James’ and others’ opinions. The first player to get booted in the Baseball Survivor exercise. Very durable player, long prime 1962-71, OPS+ nearly 120 for that decade.

3) Joe Torre – The “intangibles” put him above Allen.

4) Dick Allen – A no-brainer HoMer per the numbers. “Other considerations” knock him down a bit.

5) George Van Haltren (4,3,4) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned. In six years, 1972 to 1978, he went from the #1 unelected player to #15. Why? Now in his 75th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

6) Tommy Leach (5,4,5) – Slipping a little, he tends to lose down-ballot support when lots of good newbies crowd the ballot. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

7) Edd Roush (6,5,6) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. Support slipped last election, falling back from #20. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

8) Minnie Minoso (7,6,7) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

9) Bill Freehan (8,ne,ne) – More durable than Roger, even adjusted for era. Peak nearly as high. Could move up.

10) Roger Bresnahan (9,7,8) – Only about nine voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .380, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas
8—.386 N. Lajoie
9—.382 M. Huggins

11) Jimmy Ryan (10,8,9) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 13 voters who had GVH in their top twelve last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

12) Jake Beckley (11,9,10) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

13) Wally Schang (12,10,11) – My other Lost Cause, along with Ryan. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

14) Burleigh Grimes (13,11,12) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3750+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

11—3762 W. Hoyt
12—3760 J. Bunning
13—3759 B. Newsom

15) Charlie Keller (14,12,13) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too.

Childs slips off, temporarily.

Top tenners off ballot:

Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters. In fact, I have a suspicion that some of their lofty ranking is due to the fact that, because most of their analysis was the work of others, voters are unable to justify a downgrading.

Duffy was a regular on my ballot until 35 years ago and may return someday; like Thompson his raw performance was greatly inflated by a hitter’s park. I’ve never voted for Sewell, the “position-era domination” argument doesn’t do much for me. OTOH, I’ve never voted for Waddell because he ranks behind many other pitchers of his era, where it was easy for pitchers to dominate. In all three cases, their performances are not historically rare.

Kiner and Pierce will be back soon.
   32. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2140472)
Likewise, for a group of guys who are concerned over a lack of 3B-men in the HoM, voters "passed" on Pie Traynor many years back when he was clearly the cream of the crop of 3b-men for 20 years. Perhaps you should reconsider Brooks' contibutions in light of the desire for a "more balanced" HoM?

Robinson will eventually make it, IMO. As for Traynor, I agree that he belongs.
   33. OCF Posted: August 14, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2140473)
6 ballots. 6 different players placed first. We might be challenging some of the old records with this vote.

We will not be challenging any records for low consensus; in fact, this is likely to be a nothing-special consensus year with an average around -7 or -8. You have to recognize that the sudden influx of this many viable candidates will mean an increase in the number of candidates appearing on 30 or more ballots. Yes, the order among those candidates is still wide-open, but that's not the same as total fragmentation.
   34. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 14, 2006 at 09:07 PM (#2140529)
1983 BALLOT

TomH, great pun on Toy Cannon. Wish I had thought of it!!!!

1. Dick Allen: I think a lot extreme peak voters might be convinced that if Albert Pujols got one PA per year for five years after his first five seasons, that Pujols would have either a legit argument for the HOM or at least a very compelling one. Well, Allen’s got that covered. Then he’s got several other seasons where he’s just as good. He put up two forty win share seasons, and that’s the territory where mostly the Aarons, Mays, Cobbs, Speakers, Ruths, and Bondses tread. Dick Allen’s career numbers are in many ways comparable to those of short-career guys like Kiner and Keller and Minoso, and all them. With one twist: he’s better. He put up those stats in leagues and eras that were tougher, and he didn’t get much help from his home parks either. His baserunning, said to be the best of his generation by some, is not accounted for in our current tools. His fielding was pretty crude, and our tools show this.

Taken at face value, Dick Allen’s an obvious number one for me, his utterly monstrous peak screams out HOM/HOF/whatever. He was uniformly productive, so that even when he missed a lot of time, he still racked up tons and tons of value. 342 WS over 15 seasons, while missing lots of time. That’s very impressive. It’s actually more impressive than that. Per 162 games Allen amassed 32 WS. Think about that, an MVP year per each 162 games he played. Amazing. This obliterates contemporaries like Yaz (24 WS/162) or Billy Williams (24 WS/162) or Killebrew (also 24 WS/162). How does he compare to Ralph Kiner in this regard? Kiner’s at 28 WS/162. It’s guys like Hank Aaron that end up with the same rate. Aaron’s at 32 WS/162.

So Allen is an historically outstanding player with some issues over playing time. Yet in my peak/prime/career system, he still ends up among the top ten first basemen because his peak carries him so far. And that’s what we want, guys who at their greatest moments drive teams to victory by the sheer force of their awesome ability to play this game. (It’s our interpretation of what that means that sets us to fighting amongst ourselves.)

And then comes the attitude stuff. I’ve said elsewhere, that my interest is in figuring a way to objectively assess the problems his attitude attacks created. Frankly, based on the findings of our group, there’s not much to say. There’s contradictory evidence of how much poison he brought to the clubhouse, let alone who that poison ended up being directed at and how it affected people. On his thread I estimated that one could reasonably pin a couple-three dozen runs against him, a few win shares. But by the same token is it double-jeopardy to penalize him for runs he didn’t created in games where he’s getting no credit for his play anyway? I think it probably is.

I don’t take the accusations of team ruination lightly. Focused athletes are better athletes. It’s not like Allen was helping his teammates keep focus. But I can’t realistically tell how much he hampered their efforts, and to downgrade him for his drunkenness, his (likely) depression, and his manipulations when I haven’t done so for any other candidate would seem like selective enforcement to me. So, therefore, my position is that I will let his record, warts and all, speak for itself. With trepidation? You bet. He was pretty jerky. He was also a great baseball player.

2. Jose Mendez: Dominant peak/prime with less career.

3. Bucky Walters: Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. I like peak in my pitchers.

4. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available.

5. Charley Jones: Best left fielder available. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

6. Joe Torre: As mentioned on his thread, at each of his three main positions, he’s either a pretty easy HOMer or a very close borderliner. I combine the three, and I get an outstanding hitter whose credentials are very clearly HOM caliber.

7. Bill Freehan: Outstanding catcher of the 1960s, and a clear HOMer in my book. His peak, prime, and career are all plenty strong for his position, and are more impressive than the ballyhooed tandem of Lombardi and Schang. In comparison to the Duke of Trallee, his peak is very slightly lower, but his prime and career slightly higher. Given Duke’s OF work, I prefer Freehan.

8. Brooks Robinson: Perhaps you’re surprised that he’s this high on my ballot? After all my talk of his overrating? I see him as the best third baseman available and as being the outstanding AL 3B of his period by a large measure. Well, OK, his competition was Sneezy, Sleepy, and Joe Foy, but he did dominate them thoroughly. His longggggg career, outstanding fielding, consistent All-Staredness, and long MVP-type season add up to enough to be HOMable. I see him as about the 15th best guy to play the position in the game’s history, and about the 10th best through 1983. I don’t think he’s the superhuman that every un-analytical fan who watched the 1970 World Series thinks he is, but I do think that he’s plenty good enough to be part of our pantheon.

9. Roger Bresnahan: Outstanding catcher-hybrid candidate. Good peak, especially for the position, and a robust offensive game. Bresnahan nq Freehan.

10. Billy Pierce: Wonderful 1950s ace pitcher. The innings may seem low, but I believe it is, in some part, due to his frequent use as a fireman. Lots o’ leverage there, plus he was an excellently effective moundsman.

11. Tony Mullane: Again with the unfair labor practice guys! Mullane racked up great seasons in the 1880s, got a one-year booting, continued racking up great seasons, pitched well in the 1890s NL, and looks a heckuva lot better than Mickey Welch to me.

12. Wilbur Cooper: One of those lefties that Jimmy Sheckard probably had trouble with. If only we had the PbP data to know! Dominant NL portsider of the 1910s-early 1920s.

13. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman available. Shaped like a hydrant, hit like a monster with some indication that park killed power. Absolutely dominant at his position throughout the 1890s.

14. Ned Williamson: Outstanding third baseman and a potent hitter of the 1880s. Probably the best 3B over the span 1878-1885, and then among the best SS in the game for a couple years after that.

15. Hugh Duffy: Best centerfielder available (sorry Mike!!!). His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Roush gang.

Bumped off the ballot

Elston Howard and Billy (Lee) Williams

Backlogging

Joe Sewell: Forever on the fringes.

Ralph Kiner: Not impressed. I mean I am, but I’m not. How’s he much better than Minnie Minoso?

Minnie Minoso: How’s he much better than Ralph Kiner? He’s Dwight Evans and that’s probably not enough for my tastes. His MiL credit and NgL credit are ultimately helpful but not case-making information. They only take him one slot above Lou Brock, and that’s not good enough.

Rube Waddell: Mass confusion on this guy. Ultimately I don’t see him as impressive within context. His flakiness is sort of like Allen’s I guess, so I don’t literally hold it against him.

Newbies

Jimmy Wynn: Very close to HOMable, like 22nd or so among all-time CFs and 21st among through-1983 CFs. Could be a late-in-the-game electee if things break a certain way.

Boog Powell: Big, fat, powerful, left-handed 1B. Not a HOMer, well down the 1B lists, near Hodges and Vernon, though a bit above Beckley.
   35. Daryn Posted: August 14, 2006 at 09:16 PM (#2140545)
All of the returning top 10 are in my top 25, except Pierce who is in the 40s. Robinson and Allen make my ballot. Torre is 18th.

I like the top 12 guys on my ballot -- the rest, not so much.


1. Brooks Robinson (A-) – I’m actually not that impressed with Brooksie – Buddy Bell with great defence I guess. Not in my top-125 of all-time. Still, better than the backlog, all of whom you could make good arguments ought to be excluded from the HoM.

2. Mickey Welch (A-) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

3. Billy Williams (B+)– What’s not to like? 1400 runs? Check. 1400 rbi? Check. 130 OPS+? Check. 30th all-time in total bases? Check. Only Baines and Dawson are eligible non-HOFers with more total bases than Billy.

4. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

6. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

8. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

9. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+. A freak pick on my ballot with his woeful ~1450 hits, but I just like everything else a lot. Hair splitting between here and Allen.

10. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

11. Orlando Cepeda (C) – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

12. Dick Allen (C) – also not much better than Colavito/Cash/Howard and barely worse than Kiner. The crazy high OPS+ is certainly impressive (sandwiched between Tris Speaker and Willie Mays on the all-time list), but the career is short – 1800 hits from a bat first candidate is tough to take for me.

13. Jose Mendez (C) – His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Pierce (who I have in the 40s), Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin, the best of whom is at 26 on my ballot.

14. George Van Haltren (C) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

15. Jimmy Ryan ( C) – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

16. Sam Rice ( C)-- 2987 hits speaks to me.

17. Pete Browning (C-) – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

18. Joe Torre (C-) – in the Boyer, Doerr, Gordon ballpark.

19. Freehan (C-)– best catcher on the Board – I have flip flopped him with Bresnahan, but think both should be on the outside looking in – as others have said, Freehan is the veritable definition of a bubble candidate.

20. Pie Traynor (C-)-- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.
21. Ken Boyer (C-) – nice glove – pretty indistinguishable from Gordon, Sewell and Leach.
22. Joe Sewell C- – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense.
23. Tommy Leach C- – 300+ WS has to mean something.
24. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

25. Minnie Minoso C-
   36. Chris Fluit Posted: August 14, 2006 at 09:29 PM (#2140567)
6 ballots. 6 different players placed first. We might be challenging some of the old records with this vote.

We will not be challenging any records for low consensus; in fact, this is likely to be a nothing-special consensus year with an average around -7 or -8. You have to recognize that the sudden influx of this many viable candidates will mean an increase in the number of candidates appearing on 30 or more ballots. Yes, the order among those candidates is still wide-open, but that's not the same as total fragmentation.


I was thinking more of the record for the most players receiving a first place vote. We won't set a new record with this election but we're going to get closer than I would have thought.
   37. favre Posted: August 14, 2006 at 09:38 PM (#2140577)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Dick Allen
2. Joe Torre
3. Billy Williams

Allen averaged a 165 OPS+ for nine seasons, 1964-1972. That was extremely valuable for the teams he played for, even if he was an a**. Joe Torre posted eight seasons as a C/3B with an OPS+ above 121. Defensive credit gives him the edge over Williams, who had eight seasons with at least a 130 OPS+ in 650 PA, and another three years of 119, 120, and 122.

4. Charley Jones
5. Rube Waddell
6. Jake Beckley

From 1876-1880 Charley Jones posted OPS+ seasons of 183, 169, 158, 156, and 154. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2. I had basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part. Take a look at him again if it’s been a while.

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. Beckley’s thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 122 keeps him in the top six.

7. Dobie Moore
8. Jimmy Wynn
9. Billy Pierce

I’ve dropped Moore some as Chris’ new numbers have sunk in, but I still think he’s the best shortstop on the ballot, and (Ernie Banks notwithstanding) has been for a while. He is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see how you could put Sewell ahead.

Wynn did not have a huge peak, but his prime is excellent, posting six seasons with an OPS+ above 140, five of those as a CF; he also had a couple of seasons above 130.

We are very short on pitchers from 1941-55. Pierce is the best pitcher left from the 1950s, posting five seasons with an ERA+ over 130: 201, 148, 141, 136, 133, and a sixth season at 124. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams with excellent defenses.

10. Ralph Kiner
11. Orestes Minoso
12. Vic Willis

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two; I’m glad to see the electorate is beginning to agree. By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is only one year shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher, with OPS+ seasons of 184, 184, and 173.

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

13. Brooks Robinson
14. Nellie Fox
15. Bucky Walters

So far we only have four infielders from the 1950s (Robinson, Resse, Mathews, and Banks; also technically Killebrew, but he wasn’t a full-time player until ’59). We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot. Robinson is similar to Fox, but was a better hitter and had a longer career.

We are very short on 1940s pitchers. Walters prime from ‘39-46 (particularly his ’39-40 peak) earns him a spot. Although it is not a reason I’m voting for him, it would be good to have an HoM rep from the 39-40 Reds pennant winners.


16-20: Roger Bresnahan, Bob Elliott, Gavvy Cravath, Cupid Childs, Jose Mendez,


Jose Mendez: Has been in my pHoM for years, and is still in my top twenty. I would welcome his induction, although I think there are several pitchers with better cases in front of him.

Bill Freehan: #22 on my ballot. He wasn’t the hitter that Torre was (112 OPS+, compared to 129 for Joe) and his excellent defense just doesn’t make that up. Bresnahan was the best catcher for a twenty-year period, which gives him the edge over Freehan as well.

Joe Sewell: See Moore comment. Sewell does not stack up well with other SS in the HoM.
   38. KJOK Posted: August 14, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2140581)
Likewise, for a group of guys who are concerned over a lack of 3B-men in the HoM, voters "passed" on Pie Traynor many years back when he was clearly the cream of the crop of 3b-men for 20 years. Perhaps you should reconsider Brooks' contibutions in light of the desire for a "more balanced" HoM?

Well, Frank Baker and Heinie Groh were within 20 years of Pie, and they were clearly better. Plus Harlond Clift came up not too longer after also...
   39. OCF Posted: August 14, 2006 at 10:38 PM (#2140638)
1983 Ballot. Living in Austin. My son was born last September (on Labor Day). The Cardinals won the Series, as Whitey's strategy of defense first (but preferably guys who can get on base) paid off. That infield - Hernandez, Herr, O. Smith, Oberkfell - together with a ballpark that squashed the HR, was something any pitcher would love to have behind him. Lonnie Smith was too scary a fielder to exactly fit into that picture, but he did fit into Cardinal tradition: the closest thing to an exact copy of Brock you could find among the players available in 1982.

1. Billy Williams (----,3) Every candidate on this ballot has one or more serious flaws. With Williams, the flaw is that he's just another corner outfielder, nowhere close to being the class of the age (Aaron, F. Robby) in a time in which hitting was so little valued in infielders that Dal Maxvill played for back-to-back pennant winners and Aurelio Rodriguez had a 2000 game career. For all that, Williams is still the "safe" choice for the top spot this year.

The All-Williams team has a formidable outfield. For that, I think we have Billy in RF, Bernie or Cy (haven't looked closely enough to decide) in CF, and Ken on the bench; in a DH league, Ted is the DH and Ken goes into the lineup. With Smokey Joe anchoring the rotation, they're ready to take on the Johnsons and Smiths in the all-name league.

2. Dick Allen (new) I don't have to bother mentioning the flaws. But I direct your attention to my post #263 on his thread. The analysis can't escape from dealing with the kind of offensive force he was.
3. Joe Torre (new) Not enough to be elected as a pure "bat" candidate (which is what I'm considering both Williams and Allen), but it would be enough as a 3B, and he caught more games than Bresnahan.
4. Billy Pierce (2, 2, 3, 3, 4) With that many "bat" candidates, it's time for something else. Underappreciated by both the HoF and (so far) us.
5. Larry Doyle (5, 3, 5, 4, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
6. José Méndez (6, 4, 6, 5, 6) Maybe Koufax isn't the right comparison, but maybe Coveleski?
7. Bill Freehan (----. 7) The tricky part is comparing a mostly-catcher candidate like Freehan to our part-catcher candidates: Bresnahan, Schang, Trouppe, and (coming soon), Torre. A terrific two-year peak, a solid career.
8. Quincy Trouppe (7, 5, 7, 6, 8) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
9. Brooks Robinson (new) For 15-16 years in the heart of his career, he was Ken Boyer, only slightly better - slightly better offense, somewhat better defense. The extra years outside that aren't worth much.
10. Orlando Cepeda (--, 9, 8, 9) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I would take Cepeda over him.
11. Jimmy Wynn (new) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
13. George Van Haltren (8, 6, 10, 9, 10) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
14. Norm Cash (--, 11, 10, 11) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
15. Bucky Walters (9, 7, 8, 7, 12) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges.
16. Joe Sewell (10, 8, 12, 11, 13) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
17. Tommy Bridges (15, 15, 19, 18, 14) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
18. Ralph Kiner (4, 9, 13, 12, 15) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
19. Frank Howard (-, 10, 14, 13, 16) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
20. Orestes Miñoso (12, 11, 15, 14, 17) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value. Not the offensive value of the big HR hitters, but more mobile on defense.
21. Ken Boyer (16, 12, 16, 15, 18) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
22. Bob Elliott (14, 13, 17, 16, 19) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
23. Jake Beckley (13, 14, 18, 17, 20) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
24. Dick Redding (11, 16, 20, 19, 21)
25. Luis Aparicio (-, 17, 21, 20, 22) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
26. Hugh Duffy (17, 18, 22, 21, 23) Nothing new to say after all these years.
27. Rabbit Maranville (-, 19, 23, 22, 24) Glove and career length.
28. Mickey Vernon (18, 20, 24, 23, 25) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
29. Nellie Fox (19, 21, 25, 24, 26) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
30. Phil Rizzuto (20, 22, 26, 25, 27) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.

Pushed out of my top 30 by the influx of newcomers: Childs, Roush, Stephens, Moore.
   40. AJMcCringleberry Posted: August 14, 2006 at 10:49 PM (#2140647)
Not a bad batch of newly eligibles for my birth year.

1. Dick Allen - Fantastic hitter. Career OPS+ of 156, 21st all time. Led league in OPS+ 3 times.

2. Billy Williams - Great hitter who was incredibly durable. Played 160+ games 8 times.

3. Brooks Robinson - Greatest defensive third baseman ever.

4. Joe Torre - Great hitter as a catcher and third baseman.

5. Jose Mendez - Truly outstanding peak.

6. Bucky Walters - Not as good a peak as Mendez, but more career value.

7. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

8. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

9. Joe Sewell - Outstanding shortstop. And could hit a little bit too.

10. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

11. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

12. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

13. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

14. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

15. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

16. Minnie Minoso
17. Gavy Cravath
18. Billy Pierce
19. Vada Pinson
20. Norm Cash
21. Hugh Duffy
22. Bob Elliot
23. Edd Roush
24. Tommy Leach
25. Harry Hooper
26. Bill Freehan
27. George Van Haltren
28. Alejandro Oms
29. Buzz Arlett
30. Orlando Cepeda
31. Gil Hodges
32. Burleigh Grimes
33. Willie Davis
34. Fielder Jones
35. Dick Redding


Disclosures:

Kiner - Great peak, but not enough career value.

Waddell - Not enough career value.
   41. OCF Posted: August 14, 2006 at 10:54 PM (#2140651)
Ack! Correction:

11. Wynn
12. Van Haltren
13. Cash
14. Walters
15. Sewell

Move all of the 16-30 up by one, Childs is #30.
   42. Adam Schafer Posted: August 14, 2006 at 11:42 PM (#2140738)
Wow, this is one of the toughest ballots I've had to make. Two catchers grab both elect me votes on my ballot.


1. Bill Freehan - yes, I'm giving him the #1 spot, go ahead and flame me for it. Great catcher, very underrated IMO. Granted he's not Berra, or Gibson, or Cochrane but he is still one of the more elite catchers of all time. Yes Wynn is underrated, but Freehan was very underrated as well.

2. Joe Torre - Close to Freehan, REAL close. Extra bonus for his catching.

3. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worse teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

4. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

5. Brooks Robinson - Overrated? yes. But not SO overrated that he didn't deserve his spot in Cooperstown or his spot here.

6. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

7. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

8. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

9. Billy Williams - I never thought I'd have Billy so low, and nothing against him, he's a clear HOMer IMO, but so are the others I have ahead of him.

10. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

11. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

12. Dick Allen - I honestly didn't think he'd make my ballot. I don't care what type of person he was myself, but it is hurting him. Think of the career he COULD have had if he hadn't been such a pain! Reality is that it did indeed hurt him, he didn't get the numbers he could've had, or the extra cushy years he could've had to build a solid HOF or HOM career. As is, 15 years is normally enough "career" years for me, but as is, he really only has 11 years to judge him by (1964-1974). That just doesn't cut it for me and my idea of "merit". Very Ralph Kinerish IMO and I'm not high on Kiner. His talent is inarguable, the career value for me isn't.

13. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

14. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

15. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

16. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

17. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

18. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

19. Jimmy Wynn - Very underrated. Might even make my PHOM if I had one, I like him, don't let this ranking at the 19 spot fool you. It's not his fault I think 18 people not elected so far are more deserving.

20. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

21. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.

22. Ralph Kiner - If he could've had 2 more good (not even necassarily great) years, he could've moved up to the top 3 or 4 spots on my ballot. As is, not enough career value for me. Not too far from Dick Allen on my ballot.

23. Billy Pierce - I like Pierce, I really do. Spots 15-20 are extremely tight. I don't have him ranked as far from Marichal as it may seem.

24. Quincey Trouppe - I'm starting to be become a believer.

25. Cupid Childs - Extremley good 2nd baseman for his time. Not as much career as McPhee or I would've liked him better. Still not 100% sure I even want him this high.
   43. Howie Menckel Posted: August 15, 2006 at 01:37 AM (#2141055)
1983 ballot, our (and my) 86th, and maybe our toughest ballot ever.

Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

Quite the electic bunch I wound up with this year, if I do say so myself....


1. RALPH KINER - His competitiveness with Kaline over his top 9 years and even with Killebrew for a long stretch as well helps keep him climb to the top slot for the first time. Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
2. BILLY PIERCE - Moves up four slots this year as we continue to see few rivals in post-WW II pitching. Bob Gibson-lite, if you ask me. Put up a good fight with Marichal in recent years, but the Dominican Dandy's seasonal durability won the day. Pierce's leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.

3. JOE TORRE - He's quite a masher from 1963-71, and gets a positional bonus even if not a fielding bonus (if you accept him as passable in his C or 3B years, that is a huge boost to his team's chances of winning). Hit nearly as well and as long as Billy Williams, and longer than Bob Johnson. It IS hard to slot him due to the three positions he played, but that is NOT a good reason to hurt his chances of election.
4. BROOKS ROBINSON - The longevity ultimately wins me over - you have this great-fielding 3B who can hit for the position, but it wouldn't be enough if he didn't climb to 15 useful seasons, a rare mark. Wildly overrated by history - odd to say of a 15-time All-Star - but a really good player.
5. DICK ALLEN - Lost out on an elect-me slot not as much for his demeanor as for his missed time. Only got to 600 PA five times, probably the worst mark we'll see of any post-expansion hitting candidate. Kiner got to 650 PA, meanwhile, 7 times in a 154-game era. That matters. Allen is one of the most capable hitters in history, a la Pete Browning. But you can't help your time when you aren't on the field, in Allen's case.
6. BILL FREEHAN - Moves up four slots after surviving faceoff with Bresnahan and Schang (see Torre thread; your mileage may vary). Two spectacular seasons (1967-68) and four other very good ones. 1974 is a little odd; the 137 OPS+ looks great but he is a 1B-C that year. The 105-106 OPSs in 1969-70 are good for a catcher, too, and he gets a fielding bonus even by catcher standards.11 times an All-Star, a big number.
7. JAKE BECKLEY - Kiner finally overtook him on my ballot a few yrs ago, and it's tough for Jake to handle the new borderliners.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (it was a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially newer voters.
8. CUPID CHILDS - This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support. Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better.
9. BILLY WILLIAMS - A little conservative, perhaps, but Kiner and Allen crunch him on prime and unlike Beckley he looks an awful lot like a lot of fellow ballot candidates. I do suspect his durability is a bit underrated, though. I'm sure he's a HOMer, but I like a few other guys just a little better.
10. RUBE WADDELL - Bumps up 4 slots this year as I rethink him. Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. I still think he could have had some direct impact in costing his team some wins with his 'personality quirks,' but his overall effectiveness is impressive. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, never led his league in IP and only in the top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But I'll give him this spot, at least.
11. BOB ELLIOTT - My HOM in-out line may well be right here. If you haven't examined him in a while, or ever, get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
12. NELLIE FOX - Back on the ballot, and highest slot ever. Best of an era, and underrated. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends.
13. MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but I'm disappointed to see that such negligible Negro Leagues credit is due. I thought he was a better player there than we discovered. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
14. BOB JOHNSON - Moved back onto my ballot a few yrs ago after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
15. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot 2 yrs ago, still hanging on. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.

NEWBIES
JIMMY WYNN - About seven really nice seasons, and better than people realize. But he can't make it onto an increasingly tough ballot.
BOOG POWELL - Cleared 565 PA only 3 times, so he'd have to be Allen-like to get a sniff. And he ain't close. Fun sort of guy to follow when I was a kid, like some might say of Kluszewski I guess. BOOOOOOOOOG!

TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
JOSE MENDEZ - I reread his whole thread several yrs ago (it's long). I am satisfied as to Mendez being able to pitch to a level of a HOMer at his best, but there's not quite enough there for me. Still better than most pitchers available, and could someday grab a No. 15 spot, but he doesn't quite rate with me right now. Sorry, Jose.
JOE SEWELL - I prefer great-hitting SSs, or long-career ones, or great fielding ones at least. Sewell is a HOVG SS-3B.


OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
ORLANDO CEPEDA - First time missing my ballot, could come back. Cepeda was a textbook All-Star hitter for his day, and unlike Kaline and especially Clemente he was a stud from Day 1. Seems to have been a good 1B in his day (I mostly just remember him as an end-career DH with the Red Sox). At this point, not penalizing him for refusing to move positions to help his team - for this fact, Derek Jeter is grateful, lol.
GAVVY CRAVATH - Have voted for him for many years, but we just have so many sluggers now. I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Our first DHer on a ballot. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135.
NORM CASH - My gripe is that he often had 100 fewer PA (adjusting for pre-expansion guys) than the competition each year. Good 1B and very reliable when in the lineup, but he's the first one to really confound my OPS+ lists. While they're just a get-started point anyway, in Cash's case I needed to make more adjustments than usual. Still might fight his way onto the ballot someday, however.
PETE BROWNING - Ran out of room for this big slugger, too. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar nearly a decade ago, but fell just off the ballot 4 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but if the ballot ever thins it's inevitable he may reappear.
   44. DanG Posted: August 15, 2006 at 01:56 AM (#2141121)
It IS hard to slot him due to the three positions he played, but that is NOT a good reason to hurt his chances of election.

Indeed. On this point, it's worth noting that in the original Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James FORGOT to rate him. Even in the multi-position players section, James oddly limited his review to four players: Rose, Killebrew, Allen and Leach.

Another thing to remember is that Torre did win a gold glove one year, 1965.
   45. Patrick W Posted: August 15, 2006 at 02:47 AM (#2141235)
Early ballot submittal for the first time in a generation or three.

1. Billy Williams (3), Chic.(N), LF (’61-’76) (1983) – More hitting value than Banks or Santo, but less fielding value in LF than at 3B or SS. I rank him third amongst the 60s Cubbies.
2. Brooks Robinson (n/a), Balt. (A), 3B (’58-’75) (1983) – As much as I like defense, a full review of Robinson makes Santo look so much better in my mind.
3. Joe Torre (n/a), St.L – Milw. (N), C / 1B (’61-’76) – Seems well above the borderline that I would have blindly assumed he fell. It’s very tight between Allen and Torre, only the slight catcher bonus puts Joe ahead of Richie’s significant edge at the bat.
4. Dick Allen (n/a), Phila. (N) – Chic. (A), 1B / 3B (’58-’75) – One of the lowest PA totals among the top 100 players in my current rankings (Cochrane, Jackie R barely). 0.325 EQA covers so many other blemishes.
5. Billy Pierce (4), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – Currently the 100th best player in my system.
6. Ken Boyer (5), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding-dominant infielders further down the ballot. And he was a good defender in his own right.
7. Jimmy Wynn (n/a), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
8. Dutch Leonard (6), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
9. Dizzy Trout (7), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
10. Norm Cash (8), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
11. Alejandro Oms (9), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
12. George Van Haltren (10), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
13. Ben Taylor (11), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – I am comfortable being Ben’s 2nd-3rd biggest fan.
14. Bob Johnson (13), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
15. Minnie Minoso (15), Chic. (A), LF (’49-’63) – Numbers say he’s on the happy side of the in/out line of the HOM right now (i.e. one of the top 200+ players of all time), but I see him as a victim of the timeline to ensure earlier eras were properly represented. Having said that, he is 4th on the backlog for P-Hall entry, so I could be wrong…

Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Bill Freehan – Best catcher available – depending on how you label Torre – does not automatically get you on the ballot.
Joe Sewell – Elect 2 last year, 3 rookies worthy this year, someone has to fall off
Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 27 votes and Chuck Klein with 2 before I explain why he is off-ballot.
Rube Waddell – Almost exactly the same value as Dizzy Dean (6 votes) except Dean accomplished it in 400 fewer IP. I believe his last appearance on the ballot was 1946.

In 1984, I hope to be up to four players from last year’s top ten in my top 15.
   46. yest Posted: August 15, 2006 at 09:23 AM (#2141395)
Though not as extreme as the assists, it's the same problem, yest.
expansion due to a few out standing fielders (Wagner, Bancroft, Jackson) can't bring the average up as much as with out it makes the averages in Ozzies time lower or alternitavly Marrinavlle's higher.
also I agree with you there is a big differance beetween Ozzie and number 2 but not as big as Brooks and number 2
   47. Juan V Posted: August 15, 2006 at 06:18 PM (#2141729)
1983.. my year of birth!

My ballot:

1) Billy Williams

2) Joe Sewell After a slight reevaluation, I put Williams on top.

3) Joe Torre Had he stuck at catcher, and been better at it, he would´ve been the easy #1

4) Ralph Kiner

5) Jose Mendez They were 5-6 in ´82, a newer look puts Kiner ahead

6) Alejandro Oms Underrated, even by myself, last year. Good prime and career.

7) Dick Allen Even with all the off-the-field stuff, he has the merit. But I just don´t see him as a top-of-the-ballot guy, even without that stuff. I have followed his thread so far, and I´m giving him a small deduction for it.

8) Cupid Childs Best elegible second baseman. Nice prime.

9) Ken Boyer

10) Brooks Robinson I had underrated the 3B gloves last "year", so I adjust accordingly. They are similar in defense, and Boyer is the slightly better hitter, so he´s ahead.

11) Quincy Trouppe Torre-light

12) Billy Pierce Dizzy Dean with career. And a flatter prime.

13) Dick Redding See above

14) Gavvy Cravath He gets here with non-MLB credit, which I missed earlier.

15) Bob Johnson Deflated wartime leagues hurt him, but he´s still meritous.

Out of the ballot (within each group, players are listed alphabetically)

16-20) Jake Beckley, Charlie Keller, Jimmy Ryan, Rube Waddell, Jimmy Wynn
21-25) Bob Elliott, Bill Freehan, Ben Taylor, Pie Traynor, George Van Haltren
26-30) Dave Bancroft, Pete Browning, Nellie Fox, Frank Howard, Vern Stephens
31-35) Norm Cash, Burleigh Grimes, Chuck Klein, Minnie Miñoso, Edd Roush
36-40) Roger Bresnahan, Orlando Cepeda, Hugh Duffy, John McGraw, Hack Wilson
   48. Sean Gilman Posted: August 15, 2006 at 07:52 PM (#2141866)
1983

1. Billy Williams (3)--The Minoso comparison is appropriate, he’s just a bit better. Peak is good, though not as big as Allen or Browning, but he’s got the most career value on the ballot.

2. Dick Allen (-)--No deductions from me, neither were there any for Ty Cobb or any other jerk in baseball history. Peak’s a bit better than Browning’s, career’s a little less valuable than Williams’s, so he goes in-between the two of them.

3. Pete Browning (4)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

4. Brooks Robinson (-)--WARP loves him a lot, but I suspect their defensive system is way out of whack. Win Shares thinks his peak is inferior to but in the same general area as Childs’s and Jones’s peaks. But Robinson’s got significantly more career value than either of them. Tommy Leach might actually be his most comparable player. . . .

5. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

6. Cupid Childs (6)--I don’t understand how he fell through the cracks, maybe things will turn around in the upcoming backlog years, but with the growing spectre of timelining, I doubt it. (1938)

7. Tommy Leach (7)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

8. Minnie Minoso (8)--Comparison with Clemente showed I’d been underrating his nice balance of career and peak in favor of more one-sided candidates. (1979)

9. Joe Torre (-)--Terrific peak for a catcher, or a third baseman. WARP likes him a lot more than Freehan, but I don’t know why.

10. Larry Doyle (9)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

11. Bill Freehan (10)--Good career value and an excellent peak for a catcher. Is he tremendously underrated by history, or am I just overrating him?

12. Edd Roush (11)--Another beneficiary of the Clemente Comparison. A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s.

13. Ken Boyer (12)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

14. Joe Sewell (13)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. (1976)

15. Hugh Duffy (14)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. Counting players not in my PHOM, I’ve got 11 outfielders between Duffy at #15 and Vada Pinson at #35. There really isn’t much difference between any of them. (1964)

16. George Van Haltren (15) (1966)
17. Jose Mendez (16) (1972)
18. Carl Mays (17) (1968)
(Max Carey)
19. Alejandro Oms (18)
(Richie Ashburn)
(Sam Thompson)
20. Ralph Kiner (19)
21. Nellie Fox (20)
(Joe Medwick)
22. Jimmy Wynn (-)
(Earl Averill)
21. Frank Howard (21)
(Joe Gordon)
(Bobby Doerr)
23. Quincy Trouppe (22)
(Red Faber)
24. Bob Elliott (23)
(Red Ruffing)
25. Vada Pinson (30)
26. Bucky Walters (24)
27. Wally Berger (25)
(Ted Lyons)
28. Dick Redding (26)
29. Ed Williamson (27)
30. Dobie Moore (28)
31. Norm Cash (29)
32. Orlando Cepeda (31)
(Bob Lemon)
33. Billy Pierce (32)
34. Vern Stephens(33)
35. Roger Bresnahan (34)
36. Dave Bancroft (35)
37. Jimmy Ryan (36)
38. Charlie Keller (37)
   49. jimd Posted: August 16, 2006 at 12:18 AM (#2142215)
Ballot for 1983

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) B. WILLIAMS -- Yes, he is similar to Minoso, but slightly better for slightly longer. The difference in ranking is mostly due to NL vs AL. Prime 1962-73. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) 1972; WARP adds 1963, 1964; WS adds 1965 in RF. Other star seasons include 1962, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. HM in 1973.

2) B. ROBINSON -- I thought he would outpoint BW using WARP, but the AL discount offsets the fielding bonus. He outscores BW using Win Shares. This is a close call. Very long prime sustaining value useful at a championship level. OTOH, no season would be confused with the best player in baseball. Prime 1960-1974. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1962. Other star seasons include 1960, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1971, 1974. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1961, 1969, 1970. Best fielding MLB 3B in 1967, 1968, 1969 by both WARP and WS. Each system adds other seasons with no consensus.

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

5) D. ALLEN -- No demerits for disruption (at least yet). WARP intensely dislikes his fielding in many seasons. Prime 1964-1974. Best player candidate, 1964, 1972. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1972; WS adds 1964, 1965, 1966 at 3B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1971 at 3B, 1968 in LF, 1974 at 1B. HM in 1969 at 1B.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

8) J. WYNN -- Scored much higher than I thought he would; excellent prime. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

9) J. TORRE -- Moved up from preliminary due to catcher bonus. Prime 1963-1973. Best player candidate 1971. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1964, 1965, 1966; WS adds 1971 at 3B. Other star seasons include 1970, plus 1969 at 1B. HM in 1963, 1967, plus 1973 at 1B.

10) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

11) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

12) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

13) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

14) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

15) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

16) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy, but there's no room. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

17) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

18) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he's ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

19) D. DEAN -- He's just missing this thin ballot. Prime 1932-36. Best player candidate 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

20) B. FREEHAN -- Reassessing catchers in general. Prime 1964-73. Best player candidate 1968. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1967, 1968; WS adds 1971. Other star seasons include 1964, plus 1973 at 1B. HM in 1972.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Norm Cash, Jake Beckley,
23-24) Billy Pierce, Rube Waddell,
25-26) Ralph Kiner, Joe Tinker,
27-28) Bill Hutchison, Hugh Duffy,
29-30) Dizzy Trout, Edd Roush,
31-32) Willie Davis, Tommy Leach,
33-34) Dick Redding, Nellie Fox,
   50. Rick A. Posted: August 16, 2006 at 01:32 AM (#2142376)
PHOM
Dick Allen
Bill Freehan

1983 Ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Dick Allen - Elected PHOM in 1983
5. Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
7. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
8. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
9. Hugh Duffy – Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
10. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
11. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
12. Bill Freehan - Best catcher on the ballot. Elected PHOM in 1983
13. Ralph Kiner – Incredible peak. Elected PHOM in 1971.
14. Joe Torre - Ranks behind Freehan since more of Freehan’s value came at catcher
15. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972

Required Disclosures
Minoso, Waddell and Williams are not far from my ballot
Sewell is behind Doyle, Rizzuto, Stephens, Monroe
Pierce I just don't get. Far from my ballot.

New Candidates
Jimmy Wynn Almost makes my ballot
Brooks Robinson I'm a peak/prime voter. Brooks just doesn't have enough peak. I don't see him to far above Boyer. I've also got Brooks behind Max Carey(who isn't in my PHOM) They have similar offensive and defensive profiles and long careers. Carey, however, had much more speed and played a more important defensive position.

Off the ballot
16-20 Dean,Roush,Wynn,Oms,E.Howard
21-25 Bresnahan,Minoso,Williams,Cravath,Waddell
26-30 Monroe,Mays,Fox,B.Robinson,F.Howard
31-35 Newcombe,Johnson,Elliott,Trouppe,Doyle
36-40 Boyer,McGraw,Leach,F.Jones,Wilson
41-45 Keller,W.Cooper,Stephens,Matlock,Rizzuto
46-50 Cepeda,Poles,H.Smith,Easter,Tiernan
   51. Chris Fluit Posted: August 16, 2006 at 05:09 AM (#2142663)
1. Billy Williams, LF (8). I was intentionally conservative with Williams in the last election but as I looked over things again for this ballot, I had to admit that not only is Billy the best corner outfielder on the ballot- he's the best player.

2. Brooks Robinson, 3B (n/e). As an Orioles fan, I'd have loved to place Brooks first, but while a third-base positional bonus moved him closer, it didn't push him over the top.

3. Jose Mendez, P (3).
4. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (4). I still like these two NeL pitchers, both of whom made my PHoM back in 1975.

5. Nellie Fox, 2B (5).
6. Quincy Trouppe, C (6). And these are still the best two players at their respective positions, PHoM in '76 and '77.

7. Alejandro Oms, CF (n/a). One of the big beneficiaries of last week's re-evaluation. I've voted for him before but he fell off my ballot sometime around 1978.

8. Billy Pierce, P (7). Down a spot because of Oms upward momentum. Pierce was PHoM'ed in 1979.

9. Burleigh Grimes, P (n/a). Another big beneficiary of my re-evaluation. Ol' Stubblebeard makes my ballot for the first time.

10. Minnie Minoso, LF (12).
11. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (10). A slight flip-flop for Minoso and Cepeda.

12. Dick Allen, 1B/3B (n/e). I honestly thought he'd end up higher than this but while he beats Cepeda on peak, Cepeda crushes him for career numbers. The slightly longer prime gave Cepeda the edge by a hair.

13. Don Newcombe, P (11).
14. Rube Waddell, P (n/a). One of the things that I noticed about my re-evaluation, is that I focused a little bit more on prime. The surprising result is that both a career pitcher and a peak pitcher jumped up (Grimes and Waddell) while another career pitcher and peak pitcher dropped down (Welch and Dean).

15. Luis Aparicio, SS (9). The best shortstop eligible but he still only sneaks onto the ballot at 15.

dropped out: Hugh Duffy- still one of my favorite players from the 1890s, he just slipped out to #16 thanks to three worthy new players
Ralph Kiner and Mickey Welch, both tumbled out of my top 15 as other players like Oms and Grimes took their spots

new eligibles: I've got three of the biggies. I think Joe Torre is HoM worthy (and I even have him slightly ahead of personal favorite Ernie Lombardi) but at #18, he's unlikely to make my ballot before we elect them whether that's this vote or next
Neither Jimmy Wynnn nor Boog Powell are close.

necessary disclosures:
Bill Freehan- I have him as the fourth best catcher
Joe Sewell- second best shortstop and a player I've voted for before
Ralph Kiner- just dropped out
   52. KJOK Posted: August 16, 2006 at 05:39 AM (#2142680)
</i>It's the combined rate and length of career that propel Smith into the stratosphere for me, Eric.

But the question is, does Smith tower over the competition. I'm not sure. Dahlen, especially is close in games at SS and has the same RATE...but [looks more closely at Dahlen's prospectus card] he also played 229 games at 3B with a 111 RATE, mostly during his early years, not during his decline, and during a time when 3B was more important defensively. I think it's out of the realm to say that Smith doesn't completely wipe out his nearest competition, namely Dahlen (with props to Tinker and Glasscock).</i>

Check out the lastest defensive info from Dial:

Defense Over the Last 20 Years (Part I - SS)
   53. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 16, 2006 at 01:20 PM (#2142758)
Check out the lastest defensive info from Dial:

Sure, everyone knows Ozzie was the best of his generation or the best of the bpast X years. But what's it tell us about Bill Dahlen? Does he tower over Dahlen? Jury is out in so far as Dial's stuff goes. We have BP to use, and they say maybe not. Jury is still out.
   54. rico vanian Posted: August 16, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2143250)
Hybrid voter- I'm big on career and peak with a side order of black ink. I don't give alot of credit generally to the "what-ifs" (ie: military, injury, alien abduction, etc.)


1) Brooks Robinson – The BA bothers me, but the fielding and career value are too compelling.
2) Ralph Kiner - 7 home run titles in a row. I see a lot of attention to players who had a few good years and how deserving they are to be HOM’ers, but jeez, this guy led the league in Home Runs 7 straight years! Mega peak.

3) Nellie Fox
- 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
4) Billy Williams – A consistent and long very good to almost great career.
5) Ernie Lombardi - 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
6) Chuck Klein - 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
7) Burleigh Grimes - 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
8) Pie Trayner - .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
9) Luis Aparicio - nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
10) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
11) Rube Waddell- The Randy Johnson of the 20th centuries' first decade. Randy just doesn't have a sense of humor (but might be just as insane as Rube was).
12) Phil Rizzuto - SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
13) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
14) Jake Beckley - almost 3000 hits.
15) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.

almost doesn't count

16) Ken Boyer -. MVP. 7 all star games. Better hitter than Brooks Robinson and almost as good in the field. Brooks has a higher ranking due to career value.
17) Jose Mendez- So much of his career is anecdotal, it's hard to quantify. But how many years did he truly excel?
18) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
19) Joe Sewell - Needed a couple of more seasons. I find his strengths are similar to Nellie Fox’s, but Fox was better.
20) Cannonball Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
21) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
22) Bill Freehan – I did not realize how good he was until now. Might go higher in the future.
23) Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
24) Orlando Cepeda-
25) Billy Pierce - Very good, not great.
26) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
27) Cupid Childs – Short career, not much black or grey ink.
28) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
29) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.


Joe Torre and Dick Allen are in the 30’s
Jim Wynn and Boog Powell are in the 70’s
   55. OCF Posted: August 16, 2006 at 08:14 PM (#2143376)
rico: How do Kiner (#2) and Klein (#6) get to be that far ahead of Allen (in the 30's)? And how does Lombardi (125 OPS+ in 6349 PA) get to be that far ahead of Torre (129 OPS+ in 8801 PA)? Are you adequately correcting for ballpark and league context?
   56. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 16, 2006 at 11:10 PM (#2143643)
rico: How do Kiner (#2) and Klein (#6) get to be that far ahead of Allen

I don't understand Hodges over him, either. Yeah, Gil was a much better fielder, but Allen destroys him as a hitter and played a much tougher position for a good chunk of his career.
   57. Jim Sp Posted: August 17, 2006 at 06:49 AM (#2144243)
Comments are thin this time because of the baby...

1) B. Williams
2) Mendez--PHoM in 1932.
3) Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939. 5 years with WARP3 > 10.0, plus an 8.8 and an 8.5. Easy best Warp peak of the holdovers. PHoM 1939.
4) Brooks Robinson
5) Dick Allen
6) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. I was a WS guy but here in particular I think Warp has it right—great defense. PHoM in 1970.
7) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. PHoM in 1970.
8) Dick Redding--
9) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3.
10) Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years.
11) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8.
12) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
13) Elliott--PHoM in 1960.
14) Jimmy Wynn
15) Torre
   58. Rusty Priske Posted: August 17, 2006 at 12:52 PM (#2144298)
PHoM match my Top 2 again this year.

1. Billy Williams (3,x,x)

He would have been a slam dunk for me last year if there weren't two uber-candidates.

2. Brooks Robinson (new)

Big gap after 2.

3. Dick Allen (new)

Bigger gap after 3...and that is coming from someone who thinks GVH should have been in years ago.

4. George Van Haltren (4,3,5)

5. Jake Beckley (6,2,2)

6. Mickey Welch (8,6,3)

A trio of 'long overdues'.

7. Dobie Moore (9,8,8)

8. Joe Torre (new)

Newcomer #3 for my ballot.

9. Tommy Leach (7,9,13)

10. Nellie Fox (11,7,7)

11. Hugh Duffy (10,9,10)

12. Edd Roush (12,14,12)

13. Orlando Cepeda (13,13,9)

14. Norm Cash (14,11,6)

15. Jimmy Wynn (new)

Rounding out the newcomers.

16-20. Trouppe, Childs, Minoso, Ryan, Sewell
21-25. Rice, Boyer, Kiner, Johnson, Streeter
26-30. Pierce, Strong, Willis, Mullane, Gleason
   59. Brent Posted: August 17, 2006 at 01:01 PM (#2144303)
1983 Ballot:

For the second year in a row, we have a large class of important, newly eligible candidates. Fortunately, with a couple of weak classes standing in the wings, we'll have time to work our way through them. This year Billy Williams and Brooks Robinson are inducted into my personal hall of merit. Robinson and three other new arrivals make my ballot.

1. Billy Williams – 9 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 35. ROY for 1961, placed in top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. Like Killebrew, Kaline, and Clemente, he'll comfortably fit into the third quartile of the HoM. (PHoM 1983)

2. Brooks Robinson – 10 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 35 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). MVP for 1964; placed in top 10 in MVP voting 7 times; World Series MVP for 1970; 16 Gold Gloves. (PHoM 1983)

3. Bill Freehan – 5 Gold Gloves, placed in top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. Still the best eligible catcher.

4. Orestes Miñoso – 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31; placed in top 10 in MVP voting 5 times. As I observed on my 1978 ballot, in his prime Miñoso was not far behind Clemente. (PHoM 1970)

5. Dick Allen – MVP for 1972; placed in the top 10 in MVP voting 3 times; ROY for 1964. My comments on how I evaluated the effects of his battles with management are here.

6. Joe Torre – MVP for 1971; placed in the top 10 in MVP voting twice; 1 Gold Glove. Ranking him was a challenge, but I'm convinced he belongs in the top half of my ballot.

7. Phil Rizzuto – Great defensive shortstop and an above-average hitter for the position. MVP for 1950, placed in top 10 in MVP voting 3 times; World Series MVP for 1951; age 26-28 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

8. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

9. Jimmy Wynn – 7 seasons with 28+ WS, with a high of 38. An overlooked star.

10. Ken Boyer – 8 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 33 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). Five Gold Glove awards. MVP for 1964; four times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1975)

11. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. From 1920-26 with the Monarchs, he was 26-12, 2.70 ERA, and hero of the 1924 Negro World Series. (PHoM 1938)

12. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). From 1921–29 (ages 26 to 34), he averaged an MLE OPS+ of 138 while playing center field with excellent range. Check out the Oms thread. (PHoM 1967)

13. Nellie Fox - 9 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 34 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). “A” defensive second baseman; 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. MVP for 1959; six times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1979)

14. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

15. Elston Howard – Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964. (PHoM 1977)

Near misses:

16-20. Walters (PHoM 1958), Moore, Dean (PHoM 1958), Redding (PHoM 1976), F Howard
21–25. Cepeda, Cravath (PHoM 1976), Keller, Grimes (PHoM 1940), Newcombe

Other consensus top 10:

Joe Sewell – Among shortstops, I prefer Rizzuto, who was a superb fielder and an all-star quality shortstop through age 35 (Sewell's last year at SS was age 29) and Moore, who hit better and fielded at least as well as Sewell over a similar length career.

Ralph Kiner – ranks behind Cravath, F Howard, Cepeda who had similar peaks and longer careers, and also behind Keller, who had a better peak in an even shorter career.

Billy Pierce – as explained here, I think Newcombe ranks ahead of Pierce as the best eligible 1950s pitcher.

Rube Waddell – had a very short prime for an HoM candidate—only five really good seasons. His case is hurt by unearned runs, poor batting, poor fielding, and some work loads that were fairly light by the standards of his era. There are at least a dozen pitchers who are better candidates.

Other new arrivals:

Boog Powell (ranked # 75) was a very good hitter.
   60. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: August 17, 2006 at 02:36 PM (#2144381)
OCF,

While I would agree with you about Klein v. Allen, I don't find it inconsistent to rank Torre way above Lombardi. Lombardi's peak in nonexistent whereas Torre has a decent peak for any position.
   61. OCF Posted: August 17, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#2144397)
jschmeagol - re Torre/Lombardi, my comment was actually about rico having it the other way around.
   62. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: August 17, 2006 at 02:57 PM (#2144403)
1983 ballot

PHOM: Allen and Freehan (Williams and Wynn are on deck)


1. Dick Allen (x, PHOM) – As much as I love Keller I would have to give Allen a fairly sizable personality discount to put him below King Kong. I almost did it and if he is still around next ‘year’ I may be able to do it then, but I couldn’t’ pull the trigger this time. A true monster who had about 5 MVP level seasons despite not playing a full year very often. Two 40+ WS seasons.

2. Charlie Keller (3, PHOM) – Best peak on the board. If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

3. Bill Freehan (4, PHOM) – My system has him about even with Roy Campanella sans the NeL years. A little less peak, a little more prime. Of course, Freehan wasn’t as good as Campy because he didn’t have a number of solid years prior to making the majors, but this should tell you why I have him so high. The talk of him not being as good as Lombardi is ridiculous.

4. Cupid Childs (5, PHOM) – I am pretty sure that Childs has been in my top five every year since sometime in the 1940’s. He had a great peak and decent career length for a MIer of his era. Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion.

5. Billy Williams (6) – Unlike other peak voters, my peak system measures value over a certain lofty point, i.e. 25 WS, instead of Best 3 or Best 5. Because of this Williams’ peak is actually pretty good since he had a number of 27-29 WS years, just below MVP level but still an upper tier All-Star. He is just below Al Kaline for me.

6. Hugh Duffy (7, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections.

7. Dick Redding (8, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

8. Ralph Kiner (9¸ PHOM) – Seven straight HR titles is impressive no matter what the context. Kiner has a great peak, however I prefer Keller’s combination of OBP and decent defense to Kiner’s power.

9. Jimmy Wynn (x) – Still not 100% sure what to do with him. He grades out very well per WS, with a nice peak and a decent prime. I guess you could call him the 1960’s Earl Averill, which is a HOMer to me.

10. Dobie Moore (10, PHOM) – I had him slightly higher until new numbers showed that he more Ernie Banks without the decline phase than Hughie Jennings. Still, that is worthy of the HOM. Slightly better than Sisler in the peak department and I give Gorgeous George little credit for his post 1922 years.

11. Bucky Walters (11, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too.

12. Pete Browning (12, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me.

13. Brooks Robinson (x) – Third in line for my PHOM. Great defensive 3Bman, though I am not sure if he was better than Clete Boyer at their respective peaks. Overrated by history, but still comfortably in.

14. Quincey Trouppe (13) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Mackey was.

15. Joe Torre (x) – Torre is another that I am not quite sure about. I usually lower the bar for measuring peak and prime for catchers because they don’t play as many games per season, but it appears that Torre played 150 games a year or so because he played 1B when he wasn’t catching. This means that his numbers asrent’ as impressive (though he isn’t being penalized because obviously he his numbers wouldn’t’ have been as impressive in 120 games as they are in 150) but I am still grading him against other catchers because I think his career may have been longer had he been a career 1B/3B instead of a C. All of which is to say that I think he was better than Elston Howard, but not as good as Quincey Trouppe.

16. Rube Waddell (15) – I have him about even with Mendez but a little ahead based partly on a 15 point advantage in career ERA+ for Rube. However, he is the best player ever to leave an MLB game in order to chase a fire truck in all of baseball history.

17. Dizzy Dean (14) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and may have even been a worse hitter. Still HOM worthy, however.

18. Elston Howard (16) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

19. Ken Boyer (17) – Very good defensive 3Bman. I will admit that he is receiving a sort of 3B bonus, but if I did not give these out there would be very, very very few 3B in the HOM and I can’t justify that. Not much better than Elliot (#26) or Rosen (#18), but he was better.

20. Gavvy Cravath (18) – Very nice peak, I have decided to bit the bullet with him and give him a lot of MiL credit. If it weren’t for the six newly eligible candidates over the last two years above him, he would be on my ballot.


21-25 Mendez, Rosen, Oms, GVH, Pierce
26-30 Bresnahan, Fox, F. Howard, Berger, Doyle
31-35 McGraw, Willis, Rizzuto, Shocker, Elliot
36-40 Cepeda, Newcombe, Roush, Burns, Minoso
41-45 Chance, Veach, Sewell, Lundy, H. Wilson
46-50 Bancroft, R.Thomas, Monroe, Leach, Ryan
46-50 Monroe, Leach, Ryan, Klein, C. Jones

Required Disclosures
Mendez – Just of ballot and roughly equal to #17 Rube Waddell
Fox – Has moved up a little, of the great field and little hit MIers, he seems to be my favorite
Minoso – Very good player, but I just don’t see him as that different from a host of other corner outfield candidates like George Burns, Bobby Veach, and even Bob Johnson. If his NeL and MiL numbers were better he would have my support.
Sewell – Again I don’t see anything special. Being the best AL SS of the 1920’s does not make one better than Phil Rizzuto.
Beckley – Not even close, he was never one of his league’s top 10 players.
Pierce – He is at #25 and has climbed steadily since he first became eligible. Very borderline, though I could live with his selection.

Newbies

Only Boog Powell got any consideration among the rest of the newbies and I was not sufficiently impressed to do much of a write-up with him.
   63. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: August 17, 2006 at 03:08 PM (#2144411)
Oh, I should probably read the ballots then.
   64. Rob_Wood Posted: August 17, 2006 at 04:34 PM (#2144485)
1983 ballot from this highly career voter:

1. Brooks Robinson - best career on ballot
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career
3. Billy Williams - very good hitter for a long time
4. Cupid Childs - dominating second baseman during the 1890s
5. George Van Haltren - star of the underrepresented 1890s
6. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
7. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
8. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
9. Dick Allen - mixed bag
10. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop
11. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
12. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
13. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
14. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
15. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
-----
16-20. Sewell, Mendez, Aparicio, Minoso, Traynor
21-25. Klein, Torre, Waddell, Pierce, Freehan
   65. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2006 at 09:28 PM (#2145068)
Many new candidates added this "year." Great rookie crop.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Dick Allen-1B/3B (n/e): Terrific peak and a long enough career for me (with enough games at a demanding position, to boot). I have no doubt that Allen could have made things easier for his teams and himself, but I have yet to hear anything that he did that actually hurt his teams. Best ML third baseman for 1964, 1965, and 1966. Best NL left fielder for 1968. Best ML first baseman for 1972 (close in 1974). Best AL first baseman for 1974.

2) Joe Torre-C/1B/3B (n/e): Another outstanding multipositional player, he's also a deserving HoM candidate. Best NL catcher for 1964. Best ML catcher for 1966 (close in 1965). Best ML third baseman for 1971.

3) Billy Williams-LF/DH (5): I've decided Ardo may have had a point with my ranking of him last election, so he moves up a couple of spots. Durable and a quality player, I don't see him close to being inner-circle, but a HoMer, nevertheless. Best ML left fielder for 1972.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (3): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (4): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.          

The most dominating backlogger for his position 99.9% of the time for each election.

6) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/dh (n/e): Extremely surprised that he's not getting more support. Best player at his position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, 1969, 1972, and 1974.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (6): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (7): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

9) Pie Traynor-3B (8): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

10) Brooks Robinson-3B (n/e): I'll keep him here for now. I'm not sure that he was better than Elliott or Traynor when comparing them to their contemporaries. Greatly overrated, but still a worthy. Best AL third baseman for 1960, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1967, and 1968.
   66. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 17, 2006 at 09:29 PM (#2145070)
11) Alejandro Oms-CF (9): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

12) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (10): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Mickey Welch-P (14): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Bucky Walters-P (15): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

Mendez, Freehan, Sewell, Kiner, Pierce, Waddell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   67. andrew siegel Posted: August 18, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2145556)
Fascinating ballot. In the last two years, we've added Allen, BRob, Torre, Billy Williams, and Freehan--all of whom strike me as somewhere between the 100th and 200th best players of All-Time and Wynn, who either is in that second hundred or just outside of it. Given that I probably rank their top few returning candidates around 150 All-Time, this ballot is close to impossible..

(1) Keller (3rd)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit).

(2) Torre (new)--Uniquely valuable player. Ever so slightly ahead of Freehan on my calculations.

(3) Allen (new)--I dock him a small amount for the unique costs that came with managing this talent, but I can't see knocking someone with his level of performance far enough down to keep him out of the HoM.

(4) Cravath (5th)--Another guy who belongs with Keller and Allen.

(5) Freehan (6th)--Like Charlie Bennett or I-Rod, so good with his glove that he was an All-Star even when he hit like a run-of-the-mill catcher and an MVP candidate the few years he really hit.

(6) B. Williams (7th)--When you reduce his numbers by 5% for schedule length, he looks like other guys who slide in fiarly quickly but with some hand-wringing (Goslin, Ashburn, Carey, etc.). Add to that the fact that there are suddenly an awful lot of long-career OF's and he looks a bit overrated by the consensus.

(7) Mendez (4th)--Slight downgrade.

(8) B. Robinson (new)--Using comparisons to Sewell (not as good on a season-by-season comparison but nips him on career length) and Boyer (very similar but one rung better) to place him.

(9) Sewell (8th)-- His combination of glove and bat are very rare at his position.

(10) Roush (9th)-- Compares very well to peers.

(11) Cash (10th)--Extraordinarily underrated

(12) Pierce (11th)--Fits with those we've elected.

(13) Minoso (12th)

(14) B. Johnson (14th)

(15) Bridges (13th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

Wynn is 16th (seven great seasons but they were scattered and there isn't much else to recommend him), followed by Leach (15th), Boyer, Childs, Elliot, and Duffy.

Kiner only had four particularly good years (he's in the 20's) and Waddell strikes me as not worth the trouble (he's around number 70).
   68. Mike Webber Posted: August 18, 2006 at 07:51 PM (#2146355)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) BILLY WILLIAMS - One of the top 100 major leaguers of all-time, comfortably above the in/out line.
2) BROOKS ROBINSON - Very good, for a very long time.
3) Dick ALLEN Character issues keep him behind the top 2..
4) EDD ROUSH –314 Win Shares, 3 MVP type seasons, excellent fielder at a key defensive position.
5) BILL FREEHAN – If I had the choice between Torre and Freehan, I’d take the full career catcher.
6) JOE TORRE
7) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
8) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
9) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
10) MINNIE MINOSO – Paired with Kiner, but just behind him.
11) GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares. Even so, his career totals keep him ahead Duffy and the 19th century guys.
12) BILLY PIERCE - Re-weighed Pierce, Carl Mays and Jose Mendez this week, and I think maybe Billy edges Mays.
13) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
14) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
15) JIMMY WYNN – might move him up next week, still have a hard time getting a handle on him.

Disclosures – Jose Mendez, Dick Redding – difficult to measure, but I think Mendez is third among eligible pitchers – Redding slightly further down.
Waddell – I’d rather have Vic Willis among pitchers not in of that era.
Joe Sewell – I think Chris Cobb is on target with this one, ranks behind Maranville and Long and possibly Vern Stephens.

Newbies – Boog Powell behind Cepeda and Cash.
   69. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 19, 2006 at 11:06 AM (#2147462)
Have to be quick this week.

I've been kind of quiet lately but I've been busy at work. I've updated the pitcher chart to include just about anyone of note. I've got 150 post-1893 starters in there, 10 swing men (Firpo Marberry, Ellis Kinder types), 38 'relief aces' and 24 pre-1893 guys. But it's going to take me awhile to format, and there's not anyone of note added for 1983, so that'll have to wait.

I've got everyone that's eligible and listed on the baseball-reference.com top 100 for IP and wins. I've also got all of the eligibles from the old Cy Young thread where I used MVP votes to pick a Cy Young Award winner for each league from 1931 on that didn't give one out.

I'm going to be out of town for a few days, so please send me an email if there's anything urgent that needs my attention.

1. Joe Torre C/3B/1B (n/e) - A great hitter for a catcher. An MVP season at 3B. One of the most underrated players in the history of baseball.

2. Billy Williams LF (3) - I see little difference between Williams and Al Simmons.

3. Gavy Cravath RF (4) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

4. Joe Sewell SS (5) - With my revised rankings, he's smack dab in the middle of the pack among HoM SS's. I'm glad he didn't get rushed in, but now I've come full circle and think he's waited too long.

5. Brooks Robinson 3B (n/e) - Overrated by history, but a great player nonetheless.

6. Jack Quinn SP (6) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a huge leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26.

7. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

8. Billy Pierce SP (8) - What's not to like? He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. He took a bit of a dip with my league adjustments (AL much worse than NL during his tenure). But I still think he's worthy.

9. Charley Jones LF (9) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

10. Jake Beckley 1B (10) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

11. Bill Freehan C (11) - This begins the Tiger portion of the ballot. All kidding aside, Freehan was a heckuva player. I see Schang as the better hitter, but Freehan was much better with the leather and had a higher peak. They are extremely close, but I lean towards Freehan right now.

12. Norm Cash 1B (12) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example. This is a conservative ranking. I will be VERY disappointed if he isn't eventually elected.

13. Tommy Bridges SP (13) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

14. Dick Allen (n/e) - No personality discount here. Only 1749 games and the defense wasn't good.

15. Wally Schang C (14) - Played for the Tigers in 1931, concluding the Tiger portion of the ballot. Basically the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense questionable, only thing keeping him from the #7 spot on this ballot.

Honorable mention:

16. Cupid Childs 2B (15) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.

17. Jimmy Wynn CF (n/e) - I thought I'd have him higher. Man this ballot is jammed with great players.

18. Dave Bancroft SS (16) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

19. Burleigh Grimes SP (17) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.

20T. Phil Rizzuto - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

20T. Cecil Travis - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

Not too far behind: Charlie Keller and Bob Johnson.

Newbie Boog Powell wasn't that far off from Bill Terry, but I think Terry was a mistake.

Explanations . . .

Rube Waddell: Moved up in 1981. I've got him even with Mordecai Brown now. I feel Waddell should be a HoMer - he should have been elected instead of McGinnity and Griffith way back when. He was better than Bob Lemon - who ranks with Griffith and McGinnity as our 3 big mistakes, in my opinion. But compared to the pitchers on this ballot, I can't rank him higher. Peak-wise he's arguably the 2nd best pitcher on the ballot, behind only Dean, with Cicotte and Rucker very close, depending on how you define peak. I can't vote for him right now, but I hope we elect him.

José Méndez: I've got Walters #8 among eligible pitchers, Waddell #10 and Dizzy Trout #21. I've got George Uhle, who could also hit #12. Mendez fits somewhere in there, but that's still off the ballot.

Minnie Minoso: What's the difference between him and Edd Roush - who isn't on my ballot either. Or Orlando Cepeda? Or Rocky Colavito?

Ralph Kiner: I dropped him a fair amount in 1981 - He's quite similar to Charley Jones, but Jones was a plus fielder, Kiner a minus. That makes all the difference in the competition this tight. He's not that far behind though.
   70. Jeff M Posted: August 19, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2147665)
1983 Ballot

1. Allen, Dick – Even if I ding him for being a bad teammate, and potentially hurting the club with his attitude, he still tops the current field.

2. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

3. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

4. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

5. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

6. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon in my system.

7. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on certain career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

8. Cravath, Gavvy – A re-evaluation, and a victory for Joe Dimino.

9. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be. I can’t really read Joe Dimino’s chart on the pitching thread, but based on the comments, it appears Waddell comes out fine there too.

10. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position, I’ve given him the higher spot.

11. Robinson, Brooks – I probably have him a tad low, since his WS defensive numbers are probably lower than they should be. However, he did spend a good portion of his career struggling to be an above-average hitter. I won’t be upset if he is elected.

12. Pierce, Billy – I think he is just on the wrong side of the HoM line, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

13. Boyer, Ken – A heck of a lot better than I thought.

14. Moore, Dobie -- I’ve never had a good handle on him. He’s been lurking off ballot for awhile. I looked him again and gave him a slight bump, resulting in his appearance on the ballot.

15. Williams, Billy – I was really surprised he didn’t fare better, until I looked at those park factors, which are some of the highest we’ve seen for serious candidates. If you park adjust, his black ink drops to 0 and his grey ink is cut in half. In 18 seasons he makes the OBP top ten exactly 1 time, and the SLG top ten only 4 times. He’s top ten in RBI and runs only six times in 18 years. Sim scores (even the non-park adjusted ones) produce guys like Andre Dawson, Dwight Evans, Harold Baines, Dave Parker and Tony Perez, none of whom is a slam dunk HoMer in my book, although one or two might be. His adjusted hitting numbers are better than Duffy’s, but Duffy was a center fielder and competes with Williams pretty well on the hitting side.


Required Disclosure(s):

Mendez, Jose – He’s not in never never land like Redding, but he’s got a ways to go before making the ballot.

Freehan, Bill – Perhaps it was the “first ballot” effect that got him into the top 10. I see him as a decent bat for a catcher, but not HoM quality. Perhaps I’m undervaluing his defense -- easy to do for catchers I did not see play. I’d put him ahead of Torre in the rankings. Torre was a great hitter for a catcher, but just a pretty good hitter as a third baseman and a nothing special hitter as a first baseman.

Kiner, Ralph – I’ve still got him as a short-career, weak-defending .274/.393/.539 guy. Wish he had played a couple more years.
   71. Chris Cobb Posted: August 20, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#2148322)
1983 Ballot

1. Dick Allen (n/e). Another clear opportunity for the HoM to correct a Cooperstown mistake. The fact that he was less valuable than he could/should have been, because of disruption of the clubhouse and lack of effort in the field doesn't mean that he wasn't a great player in spite of all that.
2. Billy Williams (3). Now that Aaron and Robinson are in, he should go in easily in 1983. Consistently outstanding.
3. Brooks Robinson (n/e). Overrated, but still very worthy. He was a good hitter during his prime, and he was one of the greatest defensive third basemen of the post-WWII era.
4. Rabbit Maranville (4). An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
5. Joe Torre (n/e). A unique positional career. His usage when his primary position was catcher harked back to the 1890s, when it was not uncommon for a catcher to play other positions when not behind the plate. It seemed to work. At the corners, his defense was a lot like Harmon Killebrew’s (in fact, win shares sees their fielding ws rate at third base as exactly the same, 2.12 ws/1000 innings, a D by the letter grade system), but his ability to play catcher puts him significantly ahead of Killer as a fielder (though he’s well behind Killebrew with the bat). Another modern Coop omission whom we should elect handily.
6. Bill Freehan (6). The best catcher of the 1960s, very strong offensively and defensively. Who knew? Actually more underrated than Ron Santo, who is a well-known cause in sabermetric circles. I am unaware of any serious attention to Freehan’s case for the Hall of Fame. An excellent opportunity for the HoM to give credit where it is due.
7. Jose Mendez (5). Pretty much holding steady with the best pitching peak among eligibles. Now that he’s at the top of the backlog, the electorate should review his case carefully while we elect shoo-ins in 1982-84.
8. Jimmy Wynn (n/e). The last of three HoF oversights to reach the ballot this year. Wynn is unusual among modern candidates in that his case is more of a peak case than a career one. He had a great peak in a tough league, but he declined early. I imagine we will have much to discuss concerning his case, although his discussion thread has been oddly side-tracked into softball . . .
9. Dave Bancroft (8). Top beneficiary of my reexamination of WARP and fielding value. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
10. Charlie Keller (9). Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
11. Minnie Minoso (10). As with Keller, WARP and win shares agree that, with appropriate MLE credit, he is the best remaining candidate from the 1950s.
12. Joe Sewell (11) Very strong prime with very good defense at shortstop and very good offense.
13. Billy Pierce (10). Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is gaining momentum: we should definitely elect him.
14. Dick Redding (7). Slips behind Maranville and now Mendez among 1910s & early 20s stars. I’d happily elect him, but I see him as slightly less brilliant than the three above. Recently published data has raised questions about his career value. A brief review of the data pushes me to rate Redding a bit lower, but he’s still on my ballot. I hope to do a thorough review of it by the 1985 election . . .
15. Herman Long (11). As in Maranville’s case, I think Long’s long career of defensive excellence is being significantly underrated by the electorate.


The next seventeen
16. Jake Beckley (14). Pushed off my ballot by the new candidate glut.
17. Tommy Leach. (15). See above.
18. Ralph Kiner (16). See above.
19. Rube Waddell (15). See above.
20. Charley Jones
21. Alejandro Oms
22. Edd Roush
23. Norm Cash
24. Gavvy Cravath
25. Ken Boyer
26. Nellie Fox
27. Cupid Childs
28. Bus Clarkson
29. Bucky Walters
30. Ben Taylor
31. Urban Shocker
32. Burleigh Grimes

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

R Kiner. Pushed off by tough competition. Will be back on my ballot in a few years.
R Waddell. Like Kiner, a casualty of the 1982-83 talentfest. Will be back on my ballot when the new arrivals clear out.
C Childs. I think we should elect 1-2 more players from the 1890s. I prefer Long and Beckley for those slots, but Childs is definitely next in line, and he wouldn’t be a bad choice.
H Duffy. He would be a bad choice. Overrated by win shares because of Pythagorean good fortune, overrated by black/gray ink because he played in a great hitters’ park, he simply wasn’t one of the top outfielders of his generation. We’ve elected six of his contemporaries – Delahanty, Hamilton, Burkett, Kelley, Keeler, and Thompson – and the next two outfielders in line (if we must have more 1890s outfielders) should be Jimmy Ryan and George Van Haltren.

Other new arrivals worthy of note:

Boog Powell: A fine player, good for a long time and with a couple of great years, but behind both Cash and Cepeda on the 1960s first-base depth chart, not to mention McCovey, Killebrew, and Allen.
   72. dan b Posted: August 20, 2006 at 03:11 PM (#2148552)
1. Allen PHoM 1983. Using WS to compare Allen with current HoMers (3 best, 8 best, 5 consecutive, 10 consecutive and career total), Dick is a fuzz behind Duke Snider.
2. Williams, B PHoM 1983. If we cut the size of our hall in half, Williams would be a borderline candidate.
3. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons.
4. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
5. Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964.
6. Freehan NHBA has Torre ahead of Freehan, but I prefer the full time catcher.
7. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
8. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
9. Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
· 3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
· 5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
· 8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
· WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
· OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
· NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
· Too bad we elected Ashburn.
10. Torre A couple more years like 1971 would put him near the top of this ballot.
11. Robinson, B Not much to excite peak voters, but too much career to ignore. His “peak” towers over Beckley, a team led by Brooks could win.
12. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
13. Pierce Moving up. By WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
14. Minoso PHoM 1972.
15. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
16. Wynn, J Will be on my ballot in ’84.
17. Boyer, K More deserving than Sewell.
18. Fox, N
19. Howard, F
20. Howard, E
   73. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2006 at 03:27 PM (#2148566)
19. Howard, F
20. Howard, E


This is unconstitutional since you are not allowed to have two players contiguously placed within ten spots off of your ballot if they both have the same surname.

;-)
   74. sunnyday2 Posted: August 20, 2006 at 05:03 PM (#2148608)
Besides they're out of alpha order.
   75. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2006 at 05:10 PM (#2148612)
Besides they're out of alpha order.

I didn't want to pile on Dan more than that was needed, Marc. :-D
   76. fra paolo Posted: August 20, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#2148621)
I'm in the process of re-evaluating a prime + peak ballot, adding a little more weight to career value as well as adjustments for playing time expectations and length of prime relative to career. I also try to even out distribution by position.

1) Ralph Kiner Short career at 10 years, as short as I can tolerate, but a 5-year prime of inner circle caliber.
2) Rube Waddell Another short career, but another spectacular prime.
3) Dick Allen Like the two above, his stats in his prime show a player who could carry an average team into championship contention.
4) Cupid Childs Great bat and great hands.
5) Joe Sewell Top SS in the AL in his prime.
6) Brooks Robinson His prime isn't to my taste, but is close enough to Ken Boyer's for Robinson's career value to make a difference.
7) Hugh Duffy Gets a promotion with the addition of his career value, thus making a lie of my 1982 comment about his stock being in decline. Still not sure I've got him right.
5) Chuck Klein A newcomer, whom I hadn't analysed so closely before. His tall peak is hampered by a poor ratio of prime years to length of career, and strong competition for "best RF in his league".
9) Minnie Minoso He's not got the height of peak I'd like to see, but neither has he got playing time or length-of-prime-against-career issues that others possess. And he's better than Charley Jones after all.
10) Jimmy Wynn He doesn't have a tall peak, he doesn't score at all well on my career rating, but he has a long prime and in terms of Batting Runs + Fielding Runs he's arguably the most impactful of the CFers I've rated.
11) Ken Boyer Good prime, better than Robinson's, but not quite in Brooks's class on career. I may move him higher up the ballot next time.
12) Elston Howard Doesn't quite play enough to be higher up the ballot, but he adds more value in his prime than Freehan or Torre.
13) Orlando Cepeda His stock falls with the arrival of Minoso and Wynn, putting him below those getting a bonus for playing fielding positions.
14) Charley Jones A dominant bat in his era, given a boost because of his missing years owing to a salary dispute.
15)Bucky Walters Only just peakier than Pierce.

The missing
Edd Roush. His and Duffy's primes are quite close in my prime rankings, but Duffy beats him hands down on my career value measure. Both are still subject to reassesment.
Nellie Fox. Falls off the ballot. He may return on the basis of a strong career totals.
Gavy Cravath. He's hurt by a poor ratio of prime years to career length, like Klein.
Tony Oliva. He was on my preliminary, but Minoso just edged him on a comparison.

Top Tens not on ballot
Billy Williams: Williams had a long prime in a long career, but his peak didn't beat Minoso's, Wynn's or Oliva's among outfielders I looked at.
Jose Mendez: I don't have anything to add this time round to what I have said previously: I need to put in more work to reach an evaluation of his statistics that I'm comfortable with.
Bill Freehan: On average, he caught a few more games during his prime than Howard (116 vs 102), but I've got Howard adding a little more in terms of Player Wins.
Billy Pierce: It's almost a dead heat between him and Walters, and at the moment I've got Walters ahead.

Esteemed newcomer
Joe Torre: Believe it or not, Howard beats him on Player Wins at catcher during prime, thanks to superior fielding.
   77. fra paolo Posted: August 20, 2006 at 05:20 PM (#2148624)
Oops, that should be an 8 for Klein.
   78. Thane of Bagarth Posted: August 20, 2006 at 09:35 PM (#2148875)
1983 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but I try to allow additional career value to add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I now apply a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

(Sidenote: I have never been strongly in favor of or opposed to a catcher bonus, but, due to the overwhelming discrepancy between the consensus view of Freehan and where my rankings had him, I deferred to the collective wisdom of the electorate and implemented a bonus. Freehan doesn’t wind up all that close to my ballot, but he’s now in the top 50, which is a 60+ spot jump from last year.)


1) Billy Williams
374 career Win Shares is hard to ignore. His peak is not particularly noteworthy, but a guy who can put up 11 straight years of 7+ WARP3 is rare.

2) Dick Allen
170 WS in top 5 consecutive seasons is darn near inner-circle level. WARP’s view of his peak is good but not as impressive with 53.3 in his top 5 (non-consecutive) seasons.

3) Brooks Robinson
As an O’s fan, I’d like to see him come out higher, but I have to concede that, while the career value is impressive (119 WARP3, 356 WS), the peak is OK, but it isn’t overwhelming (48.6 in his 5 best by WARP3, 130 top 5 consecutive by WS).

4) Joe Torre
He’d have been on the ballot without a catcher bonus, but not in the top 5. 100+ WARP3 and 300+ WS are hard to argue with. Most of his career value comes from his bat (EqA .299), but BP sees his defense at C and 1B as above average (Rate is 102 for both; 3B is not so hot at 94).

5) Jose Mendez
I’m thinking Marichal might not be a bad comp for him, and it looks like Jose may just make it, too, one of these years.

6) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers—yet.

7) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

8) Ken Boyer
53.3 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is tied with Dick Allen for best among eligible hitters. Plus 102, WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

9) Bob Johnson
Minor League credit moves him into he top 10.

10) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but, thanks to 300 extra IP and an OPS+ advantage of 13 points, Bucky wins out.

11) Quincy Trouppe
For a while now I’ve ranked him as the best available among those who primarily played catcher—the catcher bonus makes that much higher praise. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

12) Joe Sewell
His top 5 WARP is close to Boyer (52.4), but his 5-yr. consecutive Win Shares are a little lower. Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.

13) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 47.4 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career: 88.4 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

14) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner and Howard for 2nd best top 3 seasons in Win Shares (unadjusted for season length) with 102, behind D. Allen: 116. The extra war credit for Keller gets him a spot above Kiner.

15) Billy Pierce
He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Bill Monroe—Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

17) Minnie Minoso—Longevity, mixed with modest peak and some NeL credit gives him the edge over Kiner.

18) Dobie Moore
19) Jim Wynn—The Toy Cannon comes out well in my rankings, or at least better than I expected. He should make the ballot in weak years. 100 WS in top 3 seasons rivals Kiner & Keller; 49.6 top 5 WARP3 is also decent.
20) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.
21) Burleigh Grimes
22) Norm Cash
23) Tommy Leach
24) Gavy Cravath
25) Jake Beckley—Sorta close to the ballot due to career value, still, 37.6 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
26) Harry Hooper
27) Rabbit Maranville
28) Charley Jones
29) Jimmy Ryan
30) Bob Elliott
31) George Van Haltren
32) Sam Rice
33) Jack Quinn
34) Phil Rizzuto
35) Nellie Fox
36) Dick Bartell
37) Alejandro Oms
38) Orlando Cepeda
39) Vada Pinson
40) Fielder Jones
41) Vern Stephens
42) Dom DiMaggio
43) Urban Shocker
44) Spotswood Poles
45) Rube Waddell—Small bonus for MiL play doesn’t move him all that close to the ballot. I feel like the bonus is justified mostly in that it makes up for what looks like an otherwise low IP career for his era.
46) Gil Hodges
47) Bill Freehan—Clearly a good, underrated player, but I credit Trouppe as better on career value and similar in peak value.
48) Carl Mays
49) Willie Davis
50) Bobo Newsom

Other Top Returnees Not in Top 50
53) Hugh Duffy—If his WARP numbers were as good as his WS numbers he’d be ranked a lot higher. As it stands, splitting the difference leaves him deep in the backlog.

76) Cupid Childs—I would like him better if his career value was a little higher. Still, there isn’t a huge gap between Childs down here and, say, Nellie Fox at 35.
   79. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: August 21, 2006 at 12:43 AM (#2149006)
Interesting election. I hope I have time to see who wins-- my wife & I are leaving on vacation really early Tuesday morning (still the middle of the night, in other words). Have to get to the airport 3 hours early -- going to Canada, which is sort of international. Have to make sure not to wear the shoes with the gel in the soles, don’t want them to take my shoes. We’ll be back 9/2, so I should have plenty of time to vote next time.

1983 ballot:

1. Joe Torre: Healthy win share and warp totals, an MVP, 4 STATS AS, I see 11 all-star-type seasons, 7 at catcher. The Braves thought enough of his glove to make him their primary catcher, enough of his bat to “rest” him at 1b and keep him in the lineup. Not being a full-time catcher is likely costing him points in some quarters, as it has Bresnahan. Unlike Bres, there are no playing time issues here. No penalties here, either. (PHOM)

2. Brooks Robinson: No, the OPS+ isn’t impressive. The defense is. 23 years is. The durability is: 15 years he played in 90+% of his team’s games and fell just short of that in 2 more. His team’s performance during his career is. He’s long been described as overrated. I think the pendulum’s swung the other way. (PHOM)

3. Billy Williams: Career edge over Minoso, I see the 2 as pretty similar. I could as easily put him first this time, but there’s a little bit of positional balance going on. Billy’s farther down the lf pecking order than Joe or Brooks are at their positions. (eligible 1982)

4. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

5. Bill Freehan: The win shares, durability, no. of good seasons and defense made him my #1 catcher last year, so he slots above Bresnahan, which might mean I have Bresnahan too high, or not. The longer I do this, the more confuseder I get. It should be the other way around, shouldn’t it? (eligible 1982)

6. Dick Allen: He wasn’t much on defense, but he was versatile in a Killebrewish way. Even if you were totally ignorant of why he missed a lot of games in several seasons, you have to notice he missed a lot of games. But what a bat when he was in the lineup. (eligible 1983)

7. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

8. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

9. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

10. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

11. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)

12. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

13. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

14. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning without league quality issues. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

15. Ken Boyer: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)

_____

16. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)

17. Orlando Cepeda: Edges Cash as a 1b candidate. Better peak, one more good season, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)


Required comments:
Jose Mendez: On the bubble -- the HOF election is an influence.
Billy Pierce is above, # 16.
   80. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: August 21, 2006 at 01:00 AM (#2149027)
John:
My ballot's 17 people deep. If we're delayed returning and I haven't posted or checked in here on 9/3, please submit the above for '84 with electees deleted & the others moved up. None of the new people next year would make my ballot. Thanks.
   81. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 21, 2006 at 01:41 AM (#2149054)
1983 ballot:

Some people move up this year!

1. Jake Beckley
2. Bob Johnson
3. Minnie Minoso
4. Norm Cash
5. Charley Jones
6. Ralph Kiner
7. George Van Haltren
8. Ernie Lombardi
9. Jimmy Ryan
10. Dutch Leonard
11. Frank Howard
12. Quiny Trouppe
13. Tommy Bridges
14. Billy Williams: he has the long-time very good-ness that I like, and his peak was plenty
high.
15. Rube Waddell

***

16. Dick Allen: He was a ]great hitter for ten years. RF indicates that he was a
reasonable 3B and 1B, but a bad OF. His career ended quickly and early, but that may have
been more due to teams not wanting him than an inability to play well (although his last
three years clearly show decline).
17. Orlando Cepeda
18. Gavy Cravath
19. Sam Rice
20. Burleigh Grimes
21. Wally Schang
22. Bob Elliott
23. Billy Pierce
24. Dizzy Trout: length and success are a nice combination.
25. Jack Quinn: Pitching to that age, especially in that era, is still quite an
accomplishment, and he was very good.
26. Eddie Cicotte: put his seasons in a different order, and he superficially looks better.
But he was never worse than average, often far above, and it seems like knuckleballers are
more prone to having isolated disaster years. Plus, his career ended because he was banned
from the game; he was 36, but wasn't slowing down.
27. Jim Wynn: a true star, and one of the underrated sort for which the HOM was
established. While his career flamed out quickly in his mid thirties, that may have been
because his superficially low batting average in 1976 made the Yanks and Brewers pull the
plug on him too soon the next year; today, his career might not have been over.
28. Tony Oliva: an outstanding performer, but "only" for parts of eleven seasons. Two more
of his 1973 might push him up a slot. He might have been a little older, but then again, he
might not have.
29. Brooks Robinson: both accounts and numbers proclaim his defensive value, he was an
excellent hitter in several seasons, and he hung on for a long time. It feels like he
should make it,though I'm not sure just how much better than Boyer he was.
30. Ken Boyer: if he had a little more production or a little more productive length, he'd
be higher. But add his defense, and he was very valuable for a reasonably long time. He
might eventually make it further up.
31. Edd Roush
32. Bucky Walters: further consideration pushes those others ahead of him.
33. Jose Mendez
34. Joe Torre: a sustained very-goodness, sprinkled with very, very-goodness; caught
apparently adequately enough.
   82. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 21, 2006 at 01:56 AM (#2149064)
John:
My ballot's 17 people deep. If we're delayed returning and I haven't posted or checked in here on 9/3, please submit the above for '84 with electees deleted & the others moved up. None of the new people next year would make my ballot. Thanks.


No problem, Don. Have a good time!
   83. SWW Posted: August 21, 2006 at 04:53 AM (#2149580)
Boy, a real embarrassment of riches these past couple years. I wanted to get this one right, so I’ve taken as much time as I thought I could get away with.

<u>1983 Ballot</u>
1) Billy Leo Williams
Our third Cub with a retired number to join our ballot. Although the second one to actually get his number retired. Interesting. 71st on Ken Shouler Top 100. 100th on Bill James Top 100. 94th on Maury Allen Top 100.
2) Brooks Calbert Robinson, Jr.
The Hoover. Not as strong a peak as, say, Ron Santo, but still a strong presence at the hot corner. The position of third baseman is really coming into its own with these recent candidates. 61st on Ken Shouler Top 100. 32nd on SABR Top 100. 35th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 80th on Sporting News Top 100. 91st on Bill James Top 100. 50th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A missing link in our recognition of baseball at the end of the deadball era and at the start of live ball. I was intrigued by the assertion that Grimes is “the Jake Beckley of pitchers”. I disagree. Grimes has some legitimate highs; he beats Beckley on Black Ink 38 to 1. I feel like a more apt comparison for Beckley might be Mickey Welch. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I bumped him up a notch, as I’m starting to recognize how unique a second baseman of his caliber is at this point in the game. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
5) Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
That’s no knock against Minnie, though. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
6) Richard Anthony Allen
A hitter of tremendous power, with Win Shares to match. A little peak-ish for my taste, and definitely not a man who fostered peace in the clubhouse. But it says a lot about him that he could perform so well amidst all the chaos. Could move up on future ballots. 57th on Maury Allen Top 100.
7) Hugh Duffy
The recent rash of top notch center fielders has led me to question whether Hugh actually belongs this high. But the career numbers still justify his merit to me. Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler.
8) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
9) Carl William Mays
I’m coming to believe that Carl is really one of the overlooked greats of the mound. I think if he’d had one huge season, he’d have easily gone in ahead of Lemon or Ferrell. In fact, I’m a little baffled by the love for Billy Pierce when Mays has equal or better numbers for his career, and with two fewer seasons.
10) William Ashley Freehan
Wow, I haven’t been this surprised by a player in I don’t know how long. Stands far apart from the crowd, with Bresnahan and Schang the best of the lingering backstops. Three times in the AL WS Top 10, and those 11 All-Star appearances clearly mark him as one of the pre-eminent catchers of his day.
11) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Looking at other infielders of the day, he’s very good. Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position.
12) Joseph Paul Torre
I’m not wild about his candidacy, but he definitely has solid numbers. To be honest, he kind of helps point out how strong a candidate Freehan really is, given his own shift from the backstop to the infield. By the way, we’re not judging him on his managerial career, but he took the early 80s Braves to the playoffs, which ought to help his case with the Cooperstown people.
13) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
14) José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
It remains very hard to get a handle on these guys. They both represent this bizarre mix of career and peak numbers, and my support for Mays makes me think they should be higher, but I just can’t figure out how good they really were. They will probably both get elected before I ever fully figure them out.
15) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Joseph Wheeler Sewell
I’m pretty sure that if I had to have a shortstop on my ballot, it would be Vern Stephens. Fortunately, I don’t have to have a shortstop on my ballot. These guys, along with Maranville and Aparicio, are very good. I just don’t think any of them is among the 15 best eligible for a vote. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
Ralph McPherran Kiner
I’ve really raised my opinion of Kiner, along with that of Chuck Klein. Still not enough to make the ballot, but certainly somewhere in the 16-25 range. The shortness of the career still holds me back. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
Walter William Pierce – “Billy”
Grimes beats Pierce on career WS, prime WS, peak WS, Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards…and yet Pierce is in the top 10 while Grimes struggles to stay in the top 30. Um…okay.
George Edward Waddell – “Rube”
Wow, he’s certainly made a comeback here. I’ve always been wary of his tremendous peak and his reliance on strikeouts. Actually, he compares rather favorably to Billy Pierce, which may explain a lot.
   84. EricC Posted: August 21, 2006 at 11:32 AM (#2149897)
1983 ballot.

1. Dick Allen. Averages as best player in baseball over his late 60s- early 70s prime.
2. Wally Schang
3. Bill Freehan
4. Joe Torre All position players in my system have their stats adjusted to partially compensate for the relative amount of typical playing time; catcher is the only position where it has a big effect in general. Freehan and Torre end up very similar for players who are almost exact contemporaries. I see Schang as a similar type, playing in a time when catchers typically caught less per season.
5. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL; very consistent prime.
6. Orlando Cepeda - Cepeda, Cash, and Howard are a set of contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM bats. I feel that Cepeda in particular has been overlooked, especially when 50s-60s NL strength is taken into account.
7. Billy Williams - Would be worthy HoMer; stats perhaps a little inflated by expansion.
8. Norm Cash -
9. Jose Mendez - Reputation and statistical evidence that he had a HoM-worthy peak. I see similarities to Lefty Gomez, with the patches of brilliance.
10. Frank Howard -
11. Charlie Keller - My guesstimate is that his monster peak would have been sustained during the war years, making him a viable "peak" candidate a la Jennings.
12. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers, behind Blyleven The factoid does overstate his greatness a little, because he pitched in a high run-scoring time, but his rate stats show that he was still great in the second half of his career, despite the low IP/season.
13. Lefty Gomez - Very good to dominant, in a strong league, and at a time when dominance was rare.
14. Gil Hodges - The best or among the best 1B throughout his prime in the strong 50s NL.
15. Jimmy Wynn. Offensive stats hurt by era and park; still, given raw numbers, hard to believe that he can end up so high- e.g. 10th best CF in the NBJHBA.

Brooks Robinson. 27. Near the top of the HoVG in my system, the reasons that I have him lower than consensus include: (1) my belief that the AL was the weaker league, especially during the 60s. (2) the large amount of talent at 3B during his time. Among exact contemporaries, Mathews and Santo were superior, and Bando and Boyer are in the mix. Furthermore, the excellent 3B seasons of Killebrew and Allen can't be overlooked. (3) a conclusion that there really are only about half as many 3B worthy of the HoM as other positions, so 3B positional balancing is not warranted. That being said, his ultimate placement could be a lot higher if my system weighted career value more heavily. Eyeballing
data in the NBJHBA, Allen has a large subjective discount, while Robinson has a large bonus.

Boog Powell. In the 40s.

Kiner, Pierce, Minoso and Waddell are all very good players within shouting distance of my ballot.
   85. Ken Fischer Posted: August 21, 2006 at 01:14 PM (#2149941)
1983 Ballot


1-Dick Allen 342 WS
Rookie of the Year, a MVP, led OPS 4 years, misunderstood and played in a tough hitter’s era. The HOM should welcome Dick with open arms…we’ll see if it’s this year.

2- Brooks Robinson 356 WS
Overrated just enough to be edged out by Allen. But he still had a MVP, longevity and great post-seasons. His fielding puts him near the top of the ballot.

3-Dick Redding
Redding’s stock has been dropping with the influx of strong candidates in recent years. He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days. I will stick with him.

4-Jose Mendez
Ditto for Mendez…the Redding comments.

5-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Would’ve easily been over 300 if his Negro League years were in majors. 189 Grey Ink is impressive in any era.

6-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Van appears to be losing support! Like Redding, Van had a run where it looked like he would make the HOM. It’s now doubtful.

7-Billy Williams 374 WS
Billy may move up next time. I looked at this list and he is the first player I’d pick from my present ballot of 15 to start a team.

8-Mickey Welch 354 WS
Continue to hold out hope for the 300-game winner. How can we forget that 1885 season!

9-Joe Torre 315 WS
Won a Gold Glove as a Catcher in mid-60s…some say that was a flux. MVP and .817 OPS in a pitcher’s era. His hitting numbers stack up well to many HOMers.

10-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

11-Vern Stephens 265 WS
A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

12-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

13-Ken Boyer 279 WS

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.


Comments…I will re-evaluate my ballot for next time. Sewell & Kiner are in my top 25. Pierce and Waddell a little farther back. Freehan is not even on my radar. I need to have another serious look. I’ve been loyal to my choices of players like Van Haltren, Redding and Stephens. It’s probably time for a gut check. Another appraisal could put Sewell and Pierce and maybe more on my ballot next time.
   86. Max Parkinson Posted: August 21, 2006 at 01:43 PM (#2149960)
1983 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Torre and Robinson)

1. Jose Mendez

Would have been the third-best pitcher of the early teens, from what I can see in the good work of the NL folk here at the HOM.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Rube Waddell

Slight change to pitcher rankings, with a touch more emphasis on peak. Waddell hops Redding.

4. Joe Torre

Best hitting catcher of the sixties, and great years at 3rd and 1st later on.

5. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

6. Dick Redding
7. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

8. Joe Sewell

9. Brooks Robinson

The glove.

10. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

11. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.


12. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

13. George Burns

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

14. (N)Ed Williamson

Between Robinson, McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

15. Billy Williams

Very good, no doubt. But I just don’t see enough here to be the automatic #3. He’s another 2nd or 3rd tier outfielder from his era. I mean, he’ll get into my PHoM, but I don’t see a lot between him and Burns and Veach (and Keller and Minoso).


16-20. Taylor, Veach, Shocker, Keller, Allen
21-25. Cash, Minoso, Lazzeri, Walters, Bancroft
26-30. Pierce, Duffy, Konetchy, B. Johnson, Kiner
31-35. Freehan, Cicotte, Cuyler, Childs, Youngs
36-40. Klein, Tiernan, Hooper, Rucker, F. Jones
41-45. Traynor, Rommel, Trouppe, Boyer, Bradley
46-50. F. Howard, Roush, Wynn, Oms, Willis
51-55. Bridges, Trout, E. Howard, Seymour, Nicholson
56-60. Leach, Chance, Griffin, Cepeda, Gomez
61-65. Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang, Wood, Nash

Previous Top 10s:
Kiner is 30. I might be missing the boat on him – I’ll promise to look in the next few “years”
Minoso is 22, and falling as I look at how many outfielders (hitters) we’re electing.
Pierce is 26.

On Freehan, he’s good, but like B. Williams, I just don’t see it. I don’t mean to read too much into people’s ballots, but I think that he’s getting bonus points for “best available catcher”, as if there’s a shortage of them. I don’t think that there is. If you want a shortage, look at 3B. We’ve (and my PHoM matches) elected 13 catchers. To this point in history, we know that we’re going to elect Bench, and probably Torre, and probably? Simmons. Gary Carter is off to a hell of a start, and Fisk has already done some good things. That could/should get us to 18. Call me one of the people who would like to see Freehan run the gauntlet against the true backlog for the last 2-5 spots for catchers in the HoM.
   87. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: August 21, 2006 at 01:56 PM (#2149975)
1. Dick Allen: I'm not convinced he wasn't a better Gary Sheffield. Like Sheffield, with his numbers, the headaches were worth it.
2. Ralph Kiner: Seven Home Run crowns. Best peak/prime on ballot. He contributed more with the bat than Robinson/Freehan did with the glove, by a wide margin, wider in my opinion than the gap between Brooks/Bill's bats and Kiner's glove.
3. Jose Mendez: Best pitcher on the ballot by a wide margin. I hope he gets in, and soon.
4. Joe Torre: I'm not sold that his defense was as bad as advertised behind the plate; he had a tremendous arm, and his numbers are good for a third baseman. He's close to the three below him. Very close.
5. Billy Williams: First of the "career" guys on my ballot. I can't justify him any lower. He belongs in the HOM, and will get there, soon.
6. Brooks Robinson: Tremendous glove, OK bat. Might move below:
7. Bill Freehan: Defense counts at catcher, and his was fantastic. Pretty decent bat during his peak.
8. Minnie Minoso: He might still slide lower as I figure out what to do with him. Part of a group of about 20 guys that probably belong in at some point.
9. Joe Sewell: Never struck out, decent glove at a premium position, decent OPS +.
10. Billy Pierce: His peak is pretty darn good for a 1950's pitcher. A little more craeer value, and he'd be real close to Mendez.
11. Hugh Duffy: Good glove, fantastic peak with the bat. 16.72 RC/27 in his age 27 season. That's pretty dang good.
12. Ken Boyer: Close to Brooks with the glove, close with the bat. A little less career puts him here.
13. Rube Waddell: What could have been. Awesome at his peak. Pretty good prime. With more IP, he's up there with Mendez.
14. Charlie Keller: Poor man's Kiner. Close to Kiner with war credit, but Kiner did it. Keller could have.
15. Cupid Childs: Youthful years among the best for a second baseman. Good glove for his time.
16. Dobie Moore: He'll be top 10 in some of our later backlog years.
17. GVH: Career guy.
18. Pete Browning: Very close in value to GVH.
19. Ben Taylor: Re-evaluation puts him ahead of Beckley, slightly. His glove is why.
20. Norm Cash: Same as above. His peak is the reason why.
21. Frank Howard: I can't believe I have him this low.
22. Chuck Klein: Poor man's Keller.
23. Jake Beckley: I can't see him getting into my top 15 anytime soon after my re-eval.
24. Dick Redding: Another guy I re-evaluated. He's not as close to Mendez as I thought.
25. Addie Joss: Best peak for a pitcher out there. No career, though.
26-35: Nellie Fox, Charley Jones, Dizzy Dean, Gavvy Cravath, Roger Bresnahan, Quincy Trouppe, Sam Rice, Pie Traynor, Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn.
   88. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: August 21, 2006 at 02:05 PM (#2149986)
1) C. Keller-A monster hitter, substantially better at his peak than any other hitter on the ballot except for Dick Allen, who was batshit crazy (more to come on that later) and Al Rosen, whose peak is abbreviated to a fault.

2) B. Robinson-A monster defensive player, substantially better at his defensive peak than any other player on the ballot except (maybe) for Ken Boyer, who I fear I'm underrating, and Bill Freehan, whose peak is abbreviated to a fault

3) R. Kiner-Awesome hitting peak, best slugger of his generation, defense not Luzinski-bad. Downgraded below Keller by the influence of the opinion of his peers, who thought him a flawed player.

4) D. Dean-Best pitcher alive for 3 years. Bad "peripherals", but monster run prevention + monster durability is a rare and valuble thing.

5) R. Waddell-Dominating pitcher who didn't need his defenses help. Red herring after red herring thrown in his path to prevent election. Astonishing K-rates indicate perhaps the best "stuff" of his time (excluding his near-contemporary, the Big Train).

6) G. Cravath-Massive minor league credit. I can't see the argument against his induction; say, hypothetically, that Hideki Matsui had come over from Japan at age 31 and hit, not as well as he already hit (All-Star), but even better, like Pujolsian numbers. That's Cravath. How is he not an HOMer?

7) A. Rosen-Peak needs no commentary. I understand why a career guy cant vote for him, but he had arguably the best 3B season of all-time, and it was no fluke.

8)D. Allen- Great hitter. Crappy outfielder. Crazy as hell. I don't disagree that the society of his time was less tolerant of him, but that's his problem. If a speedy, no power guy in an offensive era gets dinged because he's contextually less valuble, then why not ding Allen because his personality didn't "fit" with the expectations of the time. There's evidence, albeit scanty, that he did indeed hurt his teams especially in the '68-'71 period. Sans personality, he'd be b/w #1-3 on my ballot.

9)C. Childs-Best 2B baseman of his generation, well thought of by his peers, mysteriously forgotten post 1900. Played in a difficult league and dominated it.

10)K. Boyer-Good offense, great defense. Probably should go higher, but i dont have the guts to pull the trigger. Baseball Prospectus loves Boyer, has him as montrously valuble. May be a victim of the usual bias against things we cant measure, since much of his value is tied up in defense but without the "legend" of Brooks.

11)J. Mendez-With every reevaluation, he falls further down my ballot. It's not that I think he was a bad player, I just think Waddell and Dean are better qualified. Waddell and Dean had the top ~20 or so peaks of all-time. That's a difficult comparison for Mendez to achieve favorably.

12)B. Walters-2 great years (1939-40). But they're truly excellent years, and his team won a pennant in '39, and the whole banana in '40. Pretty good hitter, 111 OPS+ in 1939. A pitcher leading the league in ERA+ and IP is pretty rare. Walters did it two years in a row.

13)Bi.Williams-The first big beneficiary of WPA evaluation, as his 1972 was the most valuble season by a position player that season (including Dick Allen). Would prefer more "shoulder" to the peak year, but clearly a great player.

14)B. Freehan- A classic example of a historically great defensive player underrated by the HoM because that defense can't be quantified as well as offensive value. Superb hitter in context for a few years, as well. The best of a bunch of short-peak catchers, because of superior defense and durability. Was considered an all-star even in years when he wasn't hitting, which speaks well for his defense.

15)D. Moore-The big unknown, but probably the best SS of his time. Impossible to comment, since you're basically relying on others' assessments of his greatness.

--------------------------------
16)E. Roush-I'm sold. He's moving on ballot in the next backlog year.
17)E. Howard-Once he's appropriately credited, he's Joe Torre with better defense.
18)J. Torre-Part of the catcher ###########...but still very good, I have him better than Bresnahan.
-------------

Required Disclosures:
J. Sewell & Minnie Minoso-I see both these guys as "prime" or "career" candidates, but neither achieved the peak excellence of the players that are on my ballot. Age-adjustment for Minoso psuhed him off my ballot.

Billy Pierce-Lacks the durability I like from pitchers of similar quality (Walters) or the dominance I like in pitchers of similar durability (Waddell). HoVG.
   89. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 21, 2006 at 03:02 PM (#2150043)
45 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: James Newburg, Al Peterson, David Foss, mulder and scully (Kelly), Trevor P., Andrew M, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Tiboreau, KJOK, and Ardo.

Since he hasn't voted since 1977, Michael Bass has been removed from the list.

No ballots will be accepted after 8 PM EST, since the top two spots are still up for grabs.
   90. Esteban Rivera Posted: August 21, 2006 at 03:07 PM (#2150053)
1983 Ballot:

1. Billy Williams – His level of consistency places him at the top of this year’s ballot.

2. Brooks Robinson – Career consistency is similar to Williams’ but with less hitting, more defense and a more demanding position.

3. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

4. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

5. Jose Mendez – Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

8. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Marichal makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

9. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

10. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

11. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

13. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

14. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

15. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

16. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

17. Dick Allen – Fantastic hitter but missed a lot of games to hold him back in my rankings.

18. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

19. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

20. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.


Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Joe Sewell – Close to making my top 20. See Moore as better.

Bill Freehan – Somewhere in the 25-30 range.
   91. DL from MN Posted: August 21, 2006 at 03:12 PM (#2150062)
> Billy Pierce-Lacks the durability I like from pitchers of similar quality (Walters)
> or the dominance I like in pitchers of similar durability (Waddell). HoVG.

I think the lack of "durability" you're seeing is the result of his manager spotting him against better teams and using him as a reliever. When Pierce started he pitched deeper into games than Bunning did.
   92. DavidFoss Posted: August 21, 2006 at 04:59 PM (#2150198)
I just got back from vacation. I'll submit a ballot in a couple of hours.
   93. Ardo Posted: August 21, 2006 at 05:04 PM (#2150210)
I have been on vacation in Ireland and don't feel qualified to cast a ballot this year. I will cast my usual ballot in the 1984 election.
   94. Al Peterson Posted: August 21, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#2150287)
1983 ballot – Had a fun time trying to sort out the newest candidates. This is where they shake out for better or worse.

1. Billy Williams (4). An everyday player who it takes a career to appreciate. Did well in all aspects of the game, extremely steady in performance. Someone mentioned Al Simmons as a comp and that seems pretty accurate.

2. Dick Redding (3). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book.

3. Dick Allen (-). He’s not petitioning for sainthood and his hitting talent was elite during his time in the majors. He probably adversely affected his teammates at times with his missed time/suspensions/distractions. A slight dock but he’s HOM material nonetheless.

4. Rube Waddell (6). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

5. Joe Torre (-). Part-time catcher, worked in a little 3B and 1B. Still a fully capable hitter so didn’t need to be benched when the tools of ignorance came off. Underrated in history – many current fans probably know him only as the Yankee skipper.

6. Bob Johnson (5). Let’s get the Win Shares issue out of the way first. The system don’t like him, that’s not the death blow for me. Win Shares require your team to win some games, something the Philadelphia A’s tried to avoid for the decade Johnson patrolled left field. Therefore…

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 107.1 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

7. Norm Cash (7). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things.

8. Jimmy Wynn (-). There’s a peak there to consider – just didn’t put it all in one straight stretch. The Toy Cannon made many a Houston fan happy during the 60s and 70s.

9. Billy Pierce (9). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that. I buy into the leverage argument for him, seemed to come into tight relief spots the way an ace should.

10. Hugh Duffy (10). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s. The fact he played LF is not a huge minus since it was more important defensively in the earlier eras of the game.

11. Tommy Leach (8). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

12. Joe Sewell (11). I’ve come around a little bit on the ironman. His work at SS was excellent, lacked a little in length but not enough to dismiss as a candidate as we delve into the backlog.

13. Edd Roush (12). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

14. Dobie Moore (13). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

15. Cupid Childs (14). This is a nod to similarities to Sewell. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

16-20: Browing, B Robinson, Oms, Mullane, Mendez
21-25: Ryan, Freehan, Boyer, Kiner, Walters
26-30: Poles, Keller, F Jones, Byrd, Mays
31-35: Chance, Shocker, C Jones, Berger, Welch
36-40: Easter, F Howard, Minoso, Cepeda, Ben Taylor
41-45: Luque, Doyle, Willis, Beckley, Bresnahan
46-50: Grimes, Trouppe, Stephens, R Thomas, Bridges

Top 10 Returnees: Mendez(#20), Minoso (#38), Kiner(#24), Freehan(#22). My ranking system tries to mix the peak, prime and career aspects into a single answer. I’ve gone over these guys and all are good – I’ve just got some backloggers like Johnson, Waddell, Duffy and Leach who aren’t going off the board, thus leaving few slots open in the top 15. Plus this year’s class is a toughie!

New guys: Three hit the promised land of balloting. Brooks Robinson might be getting shorted by me, but if so not greatly. I’m good having him between Sewell and Boyer. He’ll move up in the years as we thin the herd. Boog Powell, another Oriole boy, is well off the ballot.
   95. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: August 21, 2006 at 05:33 PM (#2150298)
I think the lack of "durability" you're seeing is the result of his manager spotting him against better teams and using him as a reliever. When Pierce started he pitched deeper into games than Bunning did.


I am aware of this argument. Innings are innings, and even an adjustment for leverage can't compensate for Pierce's lack of 'em.
   96. Chris Cobb Posted: August 21, 2006 at 06:40 PM (#2150453)
I am aware of this argument. Innings are innings, and even an adjustment for leverage can't compensate for Pierce's lack of 'em.

I beg to differ. An inning pitched is equal in value to another inning pitched (setting aside the leverage issue) only in similar offensive contexts and in contexts with similar division of defensive responsibility between pitchers and fielders. Your claim that Pierce is similar in durability to Waddell overlooks this crucial point.

Billy Pierce-Lacks the durability I like from pitchers of similar quality (Walters) or the dominance I like in pitchers of similar durability (Waddell).

Here are Pierce's top 10 finishes in IP: 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 7. He has 6 top 10 finishes, 5 in top 5.
Here are Waddell's top 10 finishes in IP: 3, 4, 4, 10. He has 4 top 10 finishes, 3 in top 5.

In context, Pierce was significantly more durable than Waddell. Not as effective at peak, true, but more durable.
   97. Andrew M Posted: August 21, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2150521)
1983 Ballot

Tough ballot. I still love those 7-10 year prime type guys, but I’m willing to make some exceptions. For example…

1. (new) Brooks Robinson. Everyone knows about his fielding. His offensive numbers suffer because he’s got about 1500 plate appearances at the beginning and end of his career where he didn’t hit. But he’s got 5 seasons where he was putting up an OPS+ of 120 or better and another 5 where he’s above league average. Plus he was regularly playing 150+ games. I’m surprised to find him #1, but if the HoM only had room for one more guy, he’s the guy here I’d pick.

2. (3) Dobie Moore. He was a great player for more than a Jennings-esque 5 years and high peak SS’s are hard to find. I have no problem thinking his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

3. (4) Nellie Fox. Durable (never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ not impressive, perhaps, but it’s OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career. Similar credentials to Brooks Robinson, but slightly more peak and less career, I suppose.

4. (5) Edd Roush. He’s hard to get a handle on. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc.—and it isn’t readily apparent that Roush was better than some of the other OFs with around 8000 career plate appearances, e.g. Burns, Veach, Cuyler, Manush, Bob Johnson, Minoso. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF seems slightly higher than those other OFs, and his career was significantly longer than the OFs with higher peaks (e.g. Kiner, Keller). In other words, Roush balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other eligible candidates.

5. (new) Dick Allen. I think Allen is the best eligible offensive player. No matter how questionable his defense was, a career 156 OPS+ from a corner IF would typically be enough for him to get a #1 position on my ballot, but I’m exercising some first year caution with Allen. I don’t question that his teams were better when he was playing, but he only played 140 games or more in 6 seasons. (Brooks Robinson, by contrast, has 17 such seasons.) And while I don’t feel I have the ability to properly analyze what role his personality had on the performance of his teams, I’m also not willing to give him the benefit of any doubt. A difficult player to assess.

6. (6) Larry Doyle. Questionable defensive reputation, very good offensive player. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years.

7. (new) Joe Torre. A valuable offensive player, but it’s the 1400 games at C and 3B that get him here. He makes me worry that I have unjustly overlooked Roger Bresnahan, his career was a quite a bit longer than the Duke of Tralee’s.

8. (7) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale or Marichal. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade.

9. (8) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him higher, but I like him more than I like the three 1890s OFs.

10. (9) Dick Redding. I think his closest comp may be Juan Marichal. By reputation would seem to belong in the HoM, though the projections in his thread always seemed not to support that reputation.

11. (10) Rube Waddell. Deserves respect for top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even accounting for innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.

12. (11) Geo. Van Haltren. Never an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

13. (12) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

14. (13) Ralph Kiner. I don’t really like this type of player, but he does seem like the best of this type--and 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

15. (15) Bill Freehan. Excellent defense. Good hitter during his peak seasons.

Next 11
16. Billy Williams
17. Minnie Minoso
18. George Burns
19. Bucky Walters
20. Quincy Trouppe
21. Charlie Keller
22. Phil Rizzuto
23. Jose Mendez
24. Vern Stephens
25. Alejandro Oms
26. Tommie Leach

Required disclosures:
Billy Williams, Minnie Minoso, Jose Mendez, Joe Sewell.
Mendez and Minoso are just off my ballot. Joe Sewell was a fine player, but he has never done much for me as a candidate. Billy Williams was a very good and very durable player, but I don’t see that he is an obvious selection over George Van Haltren or Jimmy Ryan, for example.
   98. DavidFoss Posted: August 21, 2006 at 07:58 PM (#2150732)
The backlog is getting thin and the new candidates are strong but "borderline". I may have been too tough on Allen & Torre, but just putting them on the ballot is a huge help against this backlog so I don't feel guilty about that. In the coming year, with no new interesting eligibles, we should have a chance to re-evaluate yet again.

1983 Ballot

1. Brooks Robinson (ne) -- I like peak, but there is simply too much career here. He's got a nice 14 year prime mixed in there. Great glove. League quality issues would drop him against stronger competition, but that is not this year. (and I'm not even a big Brooksie fan)
2. Larry Doyle (4) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
3. John McGraw (5) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
4. Cupid Childs (6) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
5. Ralph Kiner (8) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
6. Dick Allen (ne) -- Early placement is between Kiner and Cravath. High peak bats are guys I like.
7. Gavvy Cravath (9) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
8. Charley Jones (10) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
9. Billy Pierce (14) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA.
10. Billy Williams (ne) -- Lukewarm on him. Much of his high WS numbers come from extreme in-season durability. I like corner OF-ers with more dominant peaks. I like him enough to make the ballot, though.
11. Joe Torre (ne) -- Positional mix makes him quite hard to rate. I have to rate him ahead of Bresnahan. He could certainly go higher.
12. Dick Redding (7) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
13. Roger Bresnahan (11) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
14. Joe Sewell (12) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
15. Bob Elliott (13) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
16-20. Keller, Rosen, Browning, BJohnson, Freehan,
21-25. Chance, Lombardi, Fox, Beckley, Welch,
26-30. Trouppe, DMoore, Roush, Minoso, FHoward,
31-35. Cash, Leach, Waddell, JWynn, KBoyer,
36-38. Cepeda, Newcombe, TBridges
   99. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: August 21, 2006 at 08:30 PM (#2150849)
Here are Pierce's top 10 finishes in IP: 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 7. He has 6 top 10 finishes, 5 in top 5.
Here are Waddell's top 10 finishes in IP: 3, 4, 4, 10. He has 4 top 10 finishes, 3 in top 5.

In context, Pierce was significantly more durable than Waddell. Not as effective at peak, true, but more durable.


We probably should take this over to the discussion thread, but I disagree. At peak, which, say, lets define as top 3 seasons, I think Pierce and Waddell exhibit similar durability, though obviously Waddell has no "prime" to go with that peak. I stand by my argument from above; Pierce was similarly durable to Waddell, but not as effective, and similarly effective as Walters, but not as durable (relative to league).
   100. Tiboreau Posted: August 21, 2006 at 08:39 PM (#2150864)
1. 1b Dick Allen (nc)—As a big supporter of John Beckwith, I don’t see much difference between the two. Beckwith’s issues were shrouded with time while Allen’s are clearer; however, Allen’s statistical record trumps Beckwith’s.
2. lf Billy Williams (3)—No, he didn’t have the peak of Kiner or Keller, but Williams was no slouch in that regard either. 11 consecutive years with a WARP over 7, and over half of those years were higher than 9, Williams combines a good peak with an excellent prime and career.
3. sp Jose Mendez (4, 3, 4)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
4. 2b Cupid Childs (5, 5, 10)—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
5. ss Dobie Moore (6, 4, 5)—Since his candidacy is based on his stellar peak (as well as pre-1920 credit) his numbers are underrated due to regression. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
6. lf Charlie Keller (9, 8, 7)—After WWII credit Keller’s peak, while not quite as high, is sufficiently stronger than Kiner’s to slip ahead. King Kong also receives credit for his last year with the Newark Bears.
7. sp Bucky Walters (7, 6, 12)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
8. lf Ralph Kiner (8, 7, 6)—Both Win Shares and WARP agree that Kiner & Keller were the best outfielders, peak-wise, available. Below Moore because, while their peak was better, Moore is closer to longer career, good peak infielders than the two peak-centric outfielders are to their counterparts.
9. 3b Brooks Robinson (nc)—Never a meritorious hitter, even at his best, Hoover’s excellent defense kept his peak from slipping too far and a long career at third base with a solid peak is good enough to make my ballot.
10. c Bill Freehan (10)—Two excellent seasons plus a few more solid ones make for a nice peak, the best among catchers according to Win Shares.
11. sp Dizzy Dean (11, 9, 8)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
12. 3b Al Rosen (12, 10, 9)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else. Career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
13. c Joe Torre (nc)—Like others, I found Torre to be a difficult player to rate since I compare players within their positions first and Torre spent significant time at three very different positions. I feel I’ve split the difference by treating his numbers mostly as a third baseman’s, leaving him about equal to Robinson and Rosen (after combining peak and career).
14. cf Alejandro Oms (13, 11, 11)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
15. sp Rube Waddell (14, 12, 15)—While a real good player at his peak, his character created interesting issues for his teams, evidenced by his disappointing IP totals during that time and his UERA totals over his career.

Required Disclosures:
16. cf Jimmy Wynn (nc)—One of my favorite ballplayers from before my time, an underrated ballplayer considering era and ballpark who combined speed and patience with surprising power for his stature, I’m happy to see him rate well. A real good peak, although the Toy Cannon’s inconsistency, mixing mediocre seasons with superb, hurts him a bit.
18. sp Billy Pierce (ob, 15, ob)—Did not have the IP per season I like, which is reflected in WS and WARP’s peak assessments, but this doesn’t account for leveraged IP and other strategic usage patterns.
19. cf Hugh Duffy (15, 13, 6)—The first year off my ballot for Mr. Duffy since 1939. . . . Is the first of several players between 19 and 26 that WS and WARP diverge on. In Duffy’s case it’s due to the dominance of his teams, and while I think he deserves much of that credit, considering his OPS+ and WARP I’m no longer sure that he deserves it to the extent that WS credits to his peak.
34. ss Joe Sewell (ob)—He had a solid prime, dominating in an era of weak shortstops; however, his peak isn't quite as strong as I'd like and his best competition was banned from the majors. Similar in value to Bob Elliott according to WS.
35. lf Minnie Minoso (ob)—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory.
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