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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, August 14, 2006

1983 Ballot

New candidates: Dick Allen, Joe Torre, Jim Wynn, Brooks Robinson, and Boog Powell.

Top-ten returnees: Billy Williams, José Méndez, Bill Freehan, Joe Sewell , Ralph Kiner, Billy Pierce, Minnie Minoso, and Rube Waddell.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 11:28 AM | 110 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. mulder & scully Posted: August 21, 2006 at 08:51 PM (#2150879)
Used to be Kelly in SD

1983 Ballot:

To recap my balloting:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.

1. Mickey Welch: The weight of the evidence.
2. Charley Jones: The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1980, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
3. Pete Browning: Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not.
4. Charlie Keller: MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979.
5. Dick Allen: Terrell Owens of baseball. Beckley would make my PHOM before him. On my ballot because his numbers in his prime and peak seasons are truly outstanding.
6. Hugh Duffy: A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. I need to post that to the Duffy thread soon. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not.
7. Quincy Troupe: A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 19780.
8. Jose Mendez: From 1910 to 1914, only Johnson and Alexander were better. A gigantic peak.
9. Bucky Walters: Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers.
10. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close. 11th all-time among second basemen.
11. Bill Freehan: Best catcher in AL 6 times. Best in majors 3 times. 5 times in the top 10 position players in the AL. 5 win shares gold gloves. He hit with power, he walked, he was a great defensive player. What’s not to like.
12. Tommy Leach: Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
13. Brooks Robinson: Amazing fielder. Made too many outs as a hitter. I believe a big reason for his reputation, given the fielding, is the dearth of third base talent in the American League at the turn of the decade. Ranks as the 12th best third baseman so far eligible (behind Schmidt and maybe Brett if he can shake the injury bug...)
14. Gavy Cravath: Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares.
15. Vic Willis: Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League.
   102. Trevor P. Posted: August 21, 2006 at 08:53 PM (#2150880)
1983 Ballot. Thanks, John, for reminding me to cast my ballot. I think I’ve worked about 60 hours this past week and would have totally forgotten had I not received your e-mail.

1) Joe Torre (ne). What a tough choice. If I consider Freehan to be top-10, well, Torre crushes him offensively and has an additional 2000 PA on his resume. Plus, the fielding versatility probably helped his teams in their roster composition - a small plus, but Torre’s got a lot of them.
2) Brooks Robinson (ne). Just nudges ahead of GVH; a bit of a discount for weaker AL and my hypothesis that WARP overrates fielding above replacement. But still, huge career totals, and his rate stats look better if you disregard those last three seasons. (Side note: I think Robinson’s career is very similar to Pee Wee Reese, whom I had below GVH when he was on the ballot. I now consider that to have been a mistake.)
3) George Van Haltren (3). Consolidated league, long career, scads of win shares, and a pretty decent late-career prime. Don’t be swayed by the latest WARP translations (or, if you are, make sure you vote for Bob Johnson!) - GVH belongs.
4) Jake Beckley (4). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite a lot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
5) Billy Williams (5). Positions #2-#5 on this ballot are extremely tight, but I’m going to go with extreme durability in the 1890s over Williams’ level of Medwick-plus offense.
6) Billy Pierce (6). I know it’s in vogue to compare Pierce to Marichal. But we enshrined contemporary Bob Lemon, and Pierce has nearly double (198 to 107) the amount of adjusted PRAA, and wins out in DERA 3.97 to 4.17. Do 220 more total bases at bat really make up that difference? If Lemon belongs, so does Pierce.
7) Bill Freehan (7). I’m a bit more certain of Freehan’s merit than I am of Trouppe’s. Helps that he starred in the years just before the catcher glut of Torre, Munson, Bench, Simmons, and so on. Thus concludes the “Players Named Bill” section of my ballot.
8) Quincy Trouppe (8). More appearances per season than Schang, and a much better hitter than Mackey - probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
9) Dick Allen (ne). No demerit for attitude. Better hitter than Kiner and Keller, with more career value.
10) Cupid Childs (9). Coming into the 1970s, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation in 1971 underscored how impressive his peak really was.
11) Bob Johnson. (10) Beats Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s. Something interesting I noticed awhile ago - Johnson appears to be the only eligible player we haven’t enshrined who, according to BP’s translations, would have hit 500 HRs.
12) Edd Roush (11). Hurt by the discount to WARP3. Comparable to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
13) Burleigh Grimes (12). Substantial movement in 1976 after comparing his case with Eppa Rixey, whom I had as high as #2. His extreme highs are enough to balance out his scary lows; if he’d grouped them all together, instead of vacillating between the two extremes, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
14) Minnie Minoso (13). Similar to Bob Johnson; placement depends on how much credit you give for his pre-ML play. I can’t fathom how one could have Minoso in an elect-me position and Johnsn off-ballot, though.
15) Jimmy Ryan. (14) All the GVH comparisons are valid; I just think Van Haltren’s a tad better. Might’ve been the Billy Williams of the 19th century with a higher peak.

Dropping off: Bob Elliott.

Dick Redding and Joe Sewell - Unfortunately, due to the recent onslaught of quality newcomers, both Redding and Sewell miss the top 15 for the second straight year. They’re sitting at #17 and #18, respectively.
Jose Mendez - Would’ve been below Koufax, whom I had around #25.
Hugh Duffy - Win Shares might like his fielding, but WARP declares him to be average. His 1894 doesn’t impress me as much when league strength is taken into account.
Ralph Kiner – In a second tier of short-career corner outfielders like Charlie Keller and Pete Browning. He’s the best, though, and is currently #22.
   103. mulder & scully Posted: August 21, 2006 at 08:56 PM (#2150885)
16. Dobie Moore: Banks before Banks. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1980 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers.
17. Jimmy Wynn: 5 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors. Best centerfielder eligible from Mays until ... Dale Murphy? Five years after Griffey, Jr. retires?
18. Alejandro Ohms: Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.
19. George Burns: Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.
20. Kiner: Just a hair behind Burns for best LF on my board.
21: Billy Williams: 7 times a top 10 player in the NL, 2 times in majors. Very similar value as Burns, Kiner, and Minoso, so slots in the middle. If I can find a reason to break the logjam among them, I will.
22. Minoso: Did not place quite as high in his league as Burns and Kiner did.
23. Chance: Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig.
24: Norm Cash: somewhere in here. Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Even with the missed games.
25. Joe Torre: 3/rd 4th best catcher candidate with Bresnahan behind Freehan and Troupe. Slots in lower twenties behind the left field glut after a slight catcher bonus. If he was a full time catcher his whole career he would be in, but he wasn’t.
26. Redding: Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years.
27. Grimes: Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
28. Cooper, Wilbur: He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
29. Roush: PHOM for years.
30. Bresnahan: I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era.
31. Doyle: Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired.
32. Frank Howard: Just slightly below the left field knot 18-21.
32.5. Pierce: Lacks the big years that I like, but very few in the 1950s AL had them. Is that b/c there not as many good pitchers or context? I am not sure, but I am looking at it.
33. Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.
34. Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder.
35. Rosen: What if...
36. Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense.
37. Van Haltren: Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
38. Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there.
39. Cepeda: A little behind Cash. Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
40. Waddell: Does not have as many big years as the other great pitchers of his era. Lacks the innings pitched totals that other HoM pitchers of his era had. No credit for minor league time because he jumped his teams. He went to the minors on his own.
41. Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
42. Schang: I see the arguments
43. Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
44. Fournier: Remember to give him credit for the White Sox screwing up.
45. Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding.
46. Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw
47. Scales: Pretty good player.
48 McGraw: Just not healthy enough.
49. Sewell: A good player, but just a little short.
50. Berger: Not enough prime years for me.
51. Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.
52. Elliott: I need to review his candidacy
53. Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
54. Jones, F: Excellent defender. Stats are hard to difficult to understand because fo the context:
55/56. Denny Lyons / Ed Williamson: Two excellent third basemen of a bygone era.

Others:
Boog Powell:
Some good years, but not enough peak, prime, or career.
   104. DavidFoss Posted: August 21, 2006 at 08:57 PM (#2150887)
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bump
   105. DL from MN Posted: August 21, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#2150900)
Pierce pitched 200 more innings than Walters overall. I will grant that Walters led the league 3 times.

I'm fine with someone liking Waddell or Walters better but Pierce is right there with them. He's not Bob Friend.
   106. OCF Posted: August 21, 2006 at 10:12 PM (#2150980)
Voters still out there: Devin McCullen, James Newburg, KJOK. (Ardo has indicated that he won't be voting this year.) 52 votes cast so far; those three would bring it to 55.
   107. KJOK Posted: August 21, 2006 at 11:10 PM (#2151036)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. DICK ALLEN, 1B/3B. 39 POW, 98 WARP1, 395 RCAP & .714 OWP in 7,314 PA’s. Def: POOR. In the final analysis, too much offense to ignore.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Better than Ernie Banks. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

6. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

7. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

8. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

9. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking. Close to Marichal also.

10. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

11. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

12. JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps, only a little better. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

13. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

14. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

15. JOE TORRE, C/1B/3B. 22 POW, 103 WARP1, 314 RCAP & .613 OWP in 8,801 PA’s. Def: FAIR. “Catcher bonus” gets him on the ballot.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Competition in OF tough for a spot on ballot. Just misses

BROOKS ROBINSON, 3B. 14 POW, 120 WARP1, 99 RCAP & .515 OWP in 11,782 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Maybe if he’d been a SS, but too many poor hitting seasons to ignore.

RETURNEES:

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still better than him, such as Childs.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.
BILLY WILLIAMS, LF. 24 POW, 120 WARP1, 273 RCAP & .636 OWP in 10,519 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. When you contemporaries are Aaron & Robinson, it’s hard to compare favorably. Not as good as Bob Johnson.

BILL FREEHAN, C. 18 POW, 76 WARP1, 188 RCAP & .554 OWP in 6,899 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Just misses the ballot for now.

TONY OLIVA, RF. 20 POW, 72 WARP1, 192 RCAP & .635 OWP in 6,879 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Lack of post-30 year old career definitely hurts him vs. peers.
   108. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: August 21, 2006 at 11:33 PM (#2151058)
On the one hand, this is a very tough election, with a lot of difficult guys to balance. On the other hand, we’re electing two more of them next year, so I’m not going to drive myself batty trying to sort them all out. And for various reasons (mostly having to do with 3Bmen), my ballot went all higgledy-piggledy this week. Williams and Torre make my PHoM.

1. Billy Williams (3) I guess I can understand why the strict peakers aren't crazy about him, but I really can't see much reason for any type of career voter not to have him pretty high up. Similar argument to Robinson’s, but his is stronger. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Joe Torre (new) If he was just a C or 3B, he’d be easily in. And his OPS+ isn’t induction-worthy for a 1B, but it isn’t so far off that you can dismiss him. Fielding isn’t good, but at C, enough to get by counts for a lot. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Dick Allen (new) I did give him some penalty for his negative contributions, but his hitting numbers are just so stupid good I couldn’t go any lower than this.

4. Jose Mendez (10) I don’t think I’m just following the crowd by moving him past Redding. Now I think the ceiling on what Mendez might have been is higher, and the Negro League scholars did pick him as well. The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. Made my PHoM in 1975.

5. Minnie Minoso (6) The more I look at him, the more I like him ahead of the other OF candidates. Gets a bit of an era boost from me – even though the AL was the weaker league, overall I think the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Also, the spread between the leagues took some time to develop. Made my PHoM in 1971.

6. Brooks Robinson (new) A very strong career argument, somewhat of a peak, but his record has a Beckleyish tinge to it that I’m not totally crazy about.

7. Joe Sewell (9) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. Comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. Bancroft may be underrated, but Sewell’s batting advantage is enough to keep him ahead for me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Bill Freehan (7) I really like him, and am more worried about having him too low than too high (but I'm also not a huge fan of the backlog). He wasn't quite the overall force the other catcher candidates were, but he made up for much of that with his defense.

9. Dick Redding (8) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in.. Made my PHoM in 1973.

10. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Slides back a bit because I re-evaluated how speculative his case is, although I still think he’s worthy. Made my PHoM in 1939.

11. Jimmy Wynn (new) I really feel uncertain about him right now, but I do rate him above Van Haltren.

12. Dobie Moore (12) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

13. Rube Waddell (15) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing. But his era is pretty well-represented for pitchers. I'm not totally convinced he's the best available white pitcher, but everyone else has issues too. There's a lot of similarities between his record and Pierce's, except for the ERA+.

14. Tommy Leach (4) Best Friend no more. Drops because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

15. George Van Haltren (13) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.


16. Quincy Trouppe (11) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.
17. Gavvy Cravath (14) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him (I do need to redo my attempted WS-to-WARP translation with the latest system).
18. Cupid Childs (16) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.
19. Jake Beckley. (17) I still think his typical season was pretty weak, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Moved past Medwick/Johnson because I really do think the 30s are overrepresented.
20. Billy Pierce (19) There really isn’t much separating him from Marichal when you look at the totality of his career, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive. Did have his best years in the early 50s, when the NL advantage was not so great.
(20A Joe Medwick)
21. Bob Johnson (18) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.
22. Bus Clarkson (20) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
23. Norm Cash (22) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). Swapped places with Cepeda last year, they're tough to tell apart.
(23A Biz Mackey, 23B Clark Griffith)
24. Charlie Keller (24) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
25. Alejandro Oms (23) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
(25A Cool Papa Bell, 25B Max Carey)
26. Ken Boyer (21) I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question. But Joe does have a point about better-hitting 3Bmen in the 1960s, so I slipped him behind Clarkson.
27. Phil Rizzuto (25) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
28. Orlando Cepeda (26) At the moment, I'm appreciating Cash's consistency a little more.
(28A Sam Thompson, 28B Richie Ashburn, 28C Rube Foster)
29. Ben Taylor (28) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
30. Nellie Fox (29) Just can't have him on the same level as Gordon or Childs. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.

31. Bob Elliott (27) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson and Boyer. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
32. Bucky Walters (30) The wartime penalty holds him back, but he does have a strong candidacy.
33. Ralph Kiner (31) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
34. Vern Stephens
(34A Hughie Jennings, 34B George Sisler)
35. Edd Roush
36. Pie Traynor
37. Frank Howard
38. Roger Bresnahan
39. Burleigh Grimes
40. Tony Lazzeri
   109. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 21, 2006 at 11:56 PM (#2151082)
1983 Ballot

1. Charlie Keller
2. Dick Allen

Essentially tied in hitting/peak/career. Keller gets the edge due to Allen's character issues. Basically 1. and 1a. on this ballot.

3. Billy Williams
4. Jimmy Wynn
5. Bill Freehan

Wynn has a surprisingly strong peak. Freehan rates over Torre due to defense. Also the Win Shares AL MVP for 1968 (even over 31-6 Denny McLain!) with one of the great seasons for a catcher.

6. Jose Mendez
7. Dobie Moore
8. Quincy Trouppe

The Negro Leaguers. They'd be solidly in the bottom third of the HOM and maintain their usual place on my ballot.

9. Joe Torre
10. Brooks Robinson

Ain't that a kick in the head! Torre's defense wasn't as bad as I thought and of course he could rake. Brooksie lacks the peak to rank higher than 10th.

11. Rube Waddell
12. Dick Redding

Waddell is still a strong candidate with that eye-popping ERA+. Redding continues to slide.

13. Nellie Fox
14. Minnie Minoso
15. Alejandro Oms

The new class pushes Billy Pierce into 16th. Would've been nice to have the three key members of the 1959 Sox round out the ballot.

Other Consensus Top Ten Returnees
Joe Sewell - Top 50. Low peak. Last good season came at 32.
Ralph Kiner - Top 25. Four outstanding seasons not enough.
Cupid Childs - Top 50. Closer to 25th than 50th. Shortish career. Positional dominance over contemporaries not an important factor in evaluation.
Hugh Duffy - Top 25. Worthy player crowded off of tight ballot.
   110. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 22, 2006 at 12:00 AM (#2151086)
(sigh)

I'll have the results posted a little later than expected...
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