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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, August 28, 2006

1984 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Ron Fairly, Jim Fregosi, and Wilbur Wood.

Top-ten returnees: Brooks Robinson, Joe Torre, José Méndez, Bill Freehan, Joe Sewell, Ralph Kiner, Rube Waddell, and Minnie Minoso.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 28, 2006 at 11:02 AM | 95 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 28, 2006 at 11:19 AM (#2159137)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).


1) Joe Torre-C/1B/3B (3): An outstanding multipositional player, he's a deserving HoM candidate. Best NL catcher for 1964. Best ML catcher for 1966 (close in 1965). Best ML third baseman for 1971.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (4): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Cupid Childs-2B (4): Best major league second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.

The most dominating backlogger for his position 90% of the time for each election, IMO.

4) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/dh (6): Extremely surprised that he's not getting more support. Best player at his position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, 1969, 1972, and 1974.

5) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (7): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

6) Brooks Robinson-3B (10): Moved him up a little from 1983. Greatly overrated, but still a worthy. Best AL third baseman for 1960, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1967, and 1968.

7) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (8): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

8) Pie Traynor-3B (9): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

9) Alejandro Oms-CF (11): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

10) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (12): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 28, 2006 at 11:19 AM (#2159138)
11) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

12) Mickey Welch-P (14): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Bucky Walters-P (15): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

14) Vic Willis-P (n/e): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (n/e): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Mendez, Freehan, Sewell, Kiner, Waddell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   3. yest Posted: August 28, 2006 at 12:30 PM (#2159160)
1984 ballot
The Year of the Catcher
Torre and Freehan make my PHOM this year
with Freehan’s election Detroit now has a player at every position (with no positioning adjustments)

C Bill Freehan
1B Hank Greenberg
2B Charlie Gehringer
SS Harvey Kuenn
3B George Kell
RF Harry Heilmann (Sam Crawford, and Al Kaline)
CF Ty Cobb
LF Heinie Manush (Bobby Veach)
P Hal Newhouser


1. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
10. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
11. Brooks Robinson the biggest difference in fielding between the best fielder at his position and the 2nd best (made my personal HoM in 1983)
12. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
15. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
16. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Joe Torre hard to place someone who played so many positions in a year (makes my personal HoM this year)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Bill Freehan great fielder and good power (makes my personal HoM this year)
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
27. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
30. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year
31. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
32. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times
33. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
36. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
37. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
38. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
39. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
40. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe League stats seem to show he lacked
Billy Pierce not good enough long enough
   4. karlmagnus Posted: August 28, 2006 at 12:37 PM (#2159162)
Fregosi short career; better than Fox /Robinson while at it – about level with Boog. Fairly nowhere near as good as Fregosi; another WS error. Wilbur Wood alas not that good and quite a short career, both of which surprised me.


1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve just elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14-12-12-13-14-13-9-9-5-3) Rube Waddell. Up again on further reexamination of the minor league credit question. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, and UER were high but not exceptional. If you give minor league credit, he goes to say 3300-3400IP, and is clearly a HOMer.

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-8) Joe Torre. Super hitter for a catcher or 3B, which he was most of the time. OPS+129, 2342 hits. TB+BB/PA.493, TB+BB/Outs .734.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!
   5. karlmagnus Posted: August 28, 2006 at 12:38 PM (#2159163)
11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12-13-12-13-13-14-14) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

13. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

14. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

15. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

20. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

21. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

22. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays

23. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
24. Orlando Cepeda
25. Norm Cash
26. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
27. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
28. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
29. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
30. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
31. Billy Pierce.
32. Sal Maglie.
33. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
34. (N/A) Heinie Manush
35. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
36. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
37. Bob Elliott
38. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
42. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
43. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren.
44. Kiki Cuyler
45. Deacon McGuire
46. Bill Freehan. Much shorter career than McGuire, and only slightly better. 1591 hits at OPS+112 (1636 adjusted to 130 game season.) TB+BB/PA .453, TB+BB/Outs .653.
47. Boog Powell
48. Jim Fregosi. 1726 hits at 113 –short career, becomes Boog as an outfielder (adding 20-25 points.) TB+BB/PA .447 TB+BB/Outs .651
49. Jack Quinn
50. Tony Mullane
51. Pye Traynor
52. Jim McCormick
53. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
54. Joe Judge
55. Edd Roush
56. Spotswood Poles.
57. Larry Doyle
58. Curt Simmons
59. Roger Bresnahan.
60. Wayte Hoyt.
61. Harry Hooper.
62. Brooks Robinson – not a good enough hitter. 2848 hits TB+BB/PA .435, TB+BB/outs .615, OPS+104.
63. Vada Pinson
64. Gil Hodges
65. Jules Thomas.
66. Wilbur Cooper
67. Bruce Petway.
68. Jack Clements
69. Bill Monroe
70. Jose Mendez Even I9 has him below 200 wins, and Chris has him at an ERA+ of 121. Since I think the projections are optimistic anyway (especially I9s) I'll pass, thanks. I think we already have too many NgL players, by any actuarial standard, and I wouldn't elect any more other than possibly Trouppe.
71. Herb Pennock
72. Chief Bender
73. Ed Konetchy
74. Jesse Tannehill
75. Bobby Veach
76. Lave Cross
77. Tommy Leach.
78. Tom York
   6. Rusty Priske Posted: August 28, 2006 at 12:38 PM (#2159164)
PHoM: Dick Allen & Joe Torre

1. Brooks Robinson (2,x,x) PHoM 1983

I had him in ahead of Allen, but it is all good. Widest gap on the ballot.

2. Joe Torre (8,x,x) PHoM 1984

Second widest gap.

3. Jake Beckley (5,6,2) PHoM 1913
4. George Van Haltren (4,4,3) PHoM 1912
5. Mickey Welch (6,8,6) PHoM 1929

Torre leapfrogged them, but they are still the trifecta of unjustly passed over candidates. :)

6. Dobie Moore (7,9,8) PHoM 1932

7. Nellie Fox (10,11,7)PHoM 1971

8. Hugh Duffy (11,10,9) PHoM 1930

9. Jimmy Wynn (15,x,x)

I expected more support... but the level seemed about right.

10. Tommy Leach (9,7,9) PHoM 1921

11. Norm Cash (14,14,11) PHoM 1980

12. Edd Roush (12,12,14) PHoM 1942

13. Quincy Trouppe (x,15,12) PHoM 1973

14. Orlando Cepeda (13,13,13)

15. Minnie Minoso (x,x,15) PHoM 1975
He's baaack.

16-20. Sewell, Rice, Childs, Ryan, Boyer
21-25. Kiner, Streeter, B.Johnson, Pierce, Strong
26-30. Willis, Gleason, Greene, McCormick, Redding
   7. sunnyday2 Posted: August 28, 2006 at 12:39 PM (#2159165)
John, I'm sure you're gonna tell us what this means! ;-)

> The most dominating backlogger for his position 99.9% of the time for each election.
   8. rawagman Posted: August 28, 2006 at 12:46 PM (#2159168)
John - there was someone who asked that his ballot be posted from the discussion, right?
   9. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 28, 2006 at 01:56 PM (#2159202)
> John, I'm sure you're gonna tell us what this means! ;-)

Yes. The percentage should be a little lower. ;-)
   10. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:09 PM (#2159209)
Thanks for pointing this out, rawagman. I missed it in the discussion thread. Here's Mark Donelson's ballot:

I'm going on vacation and will be w/o Internet access for at least part of it--John, can you post this (my prelim) as my final ballot on the ballot thread on Monday? Thanks.

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

pHOM: Slaughter and Torre.

1983 ballot:

1. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Comparable with some of the best ML pitchers of his era, and those are some pretty shiny names.

2. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much (especially with the revelation that they’re not even as bad as they at first seemed).

3. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m pretty confident this guy was the real deal.

4. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I have to say I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least for anyone with as much of a peak emphasis as I have.

5. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). I’m convinced he was the class of his position at his time, dominant for long enough to get my vote.

6. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

7. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

8. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). A peak I just couldn’t argue around anymore. With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

9. Bill Freehan (pHOM 1983). The best catcher we’ve seen in a while. Nearly identical to Elston Howard, but the slightly better five-year peak edges out Howard’s possibly very slightly better defense.

10. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.

11. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

12. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he presents an awfully appealing peak.

[12a. Enos Slaughter (pHOM 1984). Looking again at his numbers alongside those of Clemente and Kaline made me realize I’d done Country wrong.]

13. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). After my reconsideration, I found I’d been underrating Howard a bit. The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

14. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years at this position are enough for me.

15. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). After a long approach, he finally lands on my ballot. It’s hard to see through the AA haze, but he looks dominant enough to me.

16-20: Torre (1984), Trouppe (1967), Browning (1979), B. Robinson, Walters (1968)
21-25: Cravath, Pierce, Fox, Wynn, Gomez
26-30: Bresnahan (1973), Berger, [Faber], F. Howard, McGraw, [B. Williams], H. Smith
31-35: Roush, Pesky, Redding (1975), Trout, Boyer
36-40: Joss, [Reese], H. Wilson, [Lyons], Leach, [Wynn], Oms, [W. Ford], McCormick
41-45: Doyle, Minoso, Chance, J. Ryan, Elliott
46-50: Cepeda, [Lemon], G. Burns, Colavito, Rizzuto, Dunlap

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Brooks Robinson. An awful lot like Boyer, who I’m not overly high on, so the question is: How much of a boost do I give him because WS underrates defense? Given his reputation, then and now, as well as the defensive numbers, I’ve given him a lot, but it still isn’t quite enough to get him on ballot. He’ll make my pHOM shortly, though. At #19.

•Torre. As with Norm Cash, I resist the temptation to overvalue the one outlying peak season, but he gets position boosts that help him out, too. It’s a bit complicated figuring out exactly how much to give him, of course…in the end, I can’t see him above Freehan or Howard (or Rosen) on peak with positional adjustments, so he ends up just off-ballot. (It was tempting to boost him a slot just to get one of the likely electees this year on my ballot. But I was strong!) He’s a pHOM guy for me this year, so that’s something… At #16.

•Sewell. There’s just not remotely enough peak here for me. In my re-evaluation, Stephens jumps over him again, and now both are just outside my top 50.

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren: very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. At #44.

•Fairly. Not even close—just no peak at all. Not even in my consideration set.

•Fregosi. Better than I knew, but he looks like Sewell-lite to me, and I don’t like Sewell all that much. Not in or terribly close to my top 50.

•Wood. He DOES have a peak, but not quite enough of one. Oddly enough, his PRAA peak looks a lot like that of a very different pitcher in everything but last name, Joe Wood. Both are hanging around well outside my top 50, but within the consideration set.
   11. DL from MN Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:45 PM (#2159224)
After boosting pitching year on year to make the HoM electees more fair and balanced this week was spent mainly on figuring out Luke Easter and the other all-bat sluggers.

1984 ballot
1) Joe Torre - great hitter for a catcher, good hitter for a 3B, average 1B. That combination is enough to top the ballot.
2) Brooks Robinson - high career value 3B
3) Bob Johnson - I'm not giving him minor league credit and he's this high every year
4) Billy Pierce - comparable value to Drysdale, better than Bunning
5) Norm Cash - very good fielding differentiates him from other bat candidates
6) Jose Mendez - One of the top pitchers in baseball 1910-1914, put up career value in other years after his injury
7) Jake Beckley - Good glove, good bat, long career -> valuable player
8) Quincy Trouppe - Very good bat for a catcher, athleticism leads me to believe he was a better fielder than Torre.
9) Tommy Bridges - Best available pitcher from the war era
10) Ken Boyer - Compares favorably to Brooks Robinson's prime, less shoulder season value
11) Jim Wynn - Good fielding CF who was one of the league leaders in HR for several years
12) Virgil Trucks - Needs war credit to get on ballot
13) Dutch Leonard - Good PRAA, good career value
14) Joe Sewell - Good hitter, good fielder, longish prime
15) Minnie Minoso - makes the ballot again, good glove boosts him above the slugger glut

16-20) Orlando Cepeda, Dave Bancroft, Rube Waddell, Luke Easter, Charlie Keller
21-25) Urban Shocker, Gavy Cravath, Frank Howard, Bob Elliott, Jack Quinn
26-31) Ralph Kiner, Dick Redding, Edd Roush, Cupid Childs, Tommy Leach, Hilton Smith

Freehan is equivalent to Schang and Munson, ranking 42nd
Hugh Duffy (68) ranks behind Van Haltren, Jimmy Ryan, Alejandro Oms, Spots Poles and Pete Browning. The class of the CF backlog is Edd Roush.
Kiner moves down this week as I give more value to pitching and differentiate the sluggers a little bit. It's very hard to pick between Kiner, Keller, Cravath, Easter, Howard & Cepeda and I'll probably change my mind again in the future.
   12. sunnyday2 Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#2159233)
1984

#2 and #11 got elected, no newbies to replace them on the ballot, nor even in the top 50 so there’s some “movin’ up”! (Major re-eval coming next week, though [Hack], [Doerr], Drysdale, Dean and Luke Easter move up this week in anticipation.)

1. Dobie Moore (1-3-2, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

2. Ralph Kiner (3-4-3, PHoM 1964)—there’s not just those 7 HR titles, but all those BB, too

3. Rube Waddell (4-5-5, PHoM 1932)—I am coming to understand all of Joe’s work on pitchers and I’m hoping to have time for a pitcher re-eval next year; not sure Waddell will drop any, though, he’s still got a great ERA+ and a reasonable career length especially considering he was pitching very very well in AAA during the contraction era

4. Brooks Robinson (5-new, PHoM 1983)—I’m torn, part of me says he wasn’t that great (OPS+ 104) but everything else on his resume points to here, so here he is

5. Bill Freehan (6-7-new, PHoM 1984)—Freehan becomes, far and away, the best available catcher and, given our catcher shortage, he goes here; if I were building a team ca. early 1960s, I’d take Freehan over Billy Williams (but not over Brooksie)

6. Larry Doyle (7-6-6, PHoM 1975)—15 years of 15+ WS, I don’t see another eligible “glove” who did that, plus same OPS+ as Edd Roush and 5 points more than Hugh Duffy

7. Edd Roush (8-10-8, PHoM 1976)—really belongs ahead of Averill, on reconsideration

8. Pete Browning (10-11-9, PHoM 1961)—monstrous offense, comp is Dick Allen but Browning’s defense and intangibles (not Allen’s) move him down

9. Nellie Fox (13-16-17, PHoM 1971)—really movin’ up as I’m trying to value defense appropriately

10. Joe Torre (14-new, PHoM 1984)—another guy who’s tough to slot but the fact is he caught a lot of games and wasn’t horrible

(10a. Billy Williams [11-new])

11. Jose Mendez (15-14-13, PHoM 1957)—this is with essentially no credit at all for his hitting and his SS years

12. Charley Jones (9-7-7-8, PHoM 1921)—lost cause?

13. Addie Joss (12-12-10, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available, a little short on innings

(13a. Stan Hack [17a-16a-16a]
(13b. Bobby Doerr [18a-17a-20a])— both move up in PHoM queue because I’m getting a bit top-heavy with corner/hitters, but more analysis needed before committing)

14. Frank Howard (16-13-13)—monster OPS+, better than Cash through prime years

15. Orlando Cepeda (17-15-14)—better than Cash through prime years

Close

16. Minnie Minoso (18-16-16, PHoM 1970)—I give 2 NeL seasons though at well below peak level
17. Phil Rizzuto (21-20-20)—you want defense? Here’s your guy
(17a. Don Drysdale [21a-20a-23a]—Joe’s numbers suggest I’m seriously undervaluing him, so he moves up a bit now, maybe more next year?)
18. Elston Howard (23-29-29)—much better than I had thought
19. Ed Williamson (25-23-21, PHoM 1924)—still one of the best 3B available after all these years
20. Dizzy Dean (27-34-35)—might even move up some more based on Joe’s numbers

21. Tommy Bond (20-21-19, PHoM 1929)—the ultimate peak only candidate (among pitchers)
22. Charlie Keller (19-22-22)— the ultimate peak only candidate (among position players)
23. Joe Sewell (28-27-25)—wish those final 5 years had been at SS instead of 3B
24. Norm Cash (24-24-24)—underrated, for sure, until now
25. Hilton Smith (22-18-15)—the pitcher I wanted Redding to be?
26. Dick Lundy (32-36-36)
(26a. Richie Ashburn [31a-29a-25a])
27. Vern Stephens (31-40-44)
28. Quincy Trouppe (43-35-42)—no longer the best catcher around
29. Hugh Duffy (26-26-26)
(29a. Jim Bunning [27a-27a-23c])
30. Ken Boyer (29-42-34)

31. Alejandro Oms (34-28-27)—another guy I can’t get a handle on
32. Bobby Estalella (33-25-23)—if his skin was either lighter or darker, he would have had a more conventional career (MLs or NeLs) and might be a PHoMer by now; as it is his career is very hard to get a handle on, but the ability was there
33. Dick Redding (30-31-28, PHoM 1971)
34. Vic Willis (35-19-18, PHoM 1977)

They also ran

35. Jim Wynn (42-new)—how did he slip all the way down here? I thought he would be in the 20s….
36. Chuck Klein (36-37-37)
37. Al Rosen (37-43-38)
38. Hack Wilson (38-32-31)
39. Wally Berger (39-33-32)
40. Cupid Childs (40-39-46, PHoM 1925)

41. Jim McCormick (41-30-30)
42. Gavvy Cravath (46-38-43)
43. Dave Bancroft (47-49-x)
44. Pie Traynor (44-47-40)
45. Roger Bresnahan (45-48-50)
(45a. Biz Mackey [45a-45a-50a])
46. Luke Easter (x-x-x)—in the top 50 for the first time
(46a. Wes Ferrell [50a-50c-50c])
47. Mickey Welch (48-41-33)
(47a. Willie Keeler [48a-50d-50d])
48. Tony Oliva (49-x-new)
49. Eddie Cicotte (55-x-x)
50. Frank Chance (50-44-39)
51. Bob Elliott (51-45-49)
52. Bob Johnson (52-46-48)
(52a. Jimmy Sheckard [52a-50e-x])
53. Bucky Walters (53-x-x)
54. Ernie Lombardi 54-x-x)
55. Bill Monroe (55-x-47)
56. Billy Pierce (x-x-x)
57. Lefty Gomez (57-50-x)—all the way down to about here, I have harbored an intention to vote for all of these guys at one time or another, and have voted for many of them
   13. ronw Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:58 PM (#2159236)
1984 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Dick Redding I think his teens peak is higher than we realize. However, those ‘20’s numbers are looming large. Seems like he could be similar to Juan Marichal as far as overall value and highish peak.

2. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

3. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

4. Brooks Robinson – 14.7 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. Would have one of the lowest bWS/700PA rates of any electee. Bobby Wallace (14.7), Monte Ward (13.8) and Biz Mackey (12.8 MLE) are equal to or lower. Still he was a fine fielder and had a slight peak.

5. Joe Sewell 15.8 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. My fraternity brother has a similar case to Robinson, but a few extra non-All-Star years pushes Brooks ahead.

6. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

7. Bill Freehan – 17.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Outstanding, underrated player. Supplants Bresnahan as the best unelected catcher. Not higher because even with better equipment and longer schedule, he would have the lowest PA among our elected catchers, other than 19th century guys.

8. Joe Torre – 20.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. Part-time catcher like Bresnahan. Should be HOMer like Bresnahan.

9. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

10. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

11. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. I didn’t realize how dominant he was during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

12. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

13. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

14. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

15. Ralph Kiner 24.2 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 8 AS. That peak is hard to ignore.

16. Charlie Keller 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit, he probably should be at least tied with Kiner.

17. Jimmy Wynn 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

18. Minnie Minoso 21.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS (including Negro Leagues). I have another logjam of outfielders.

19. Ben Taylor I’m having trouble between Ben and Jake.

20. Jake Beckley 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES


Missing top 10

Rube Waddell – 23.8 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 5 AS. Just not enough relative IP to his time.

New Notables

Ron Fairly – 19.3 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 4 AS. I remember him as a Giants announcer.

Jim Fregosi – 18.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. His rate is about the same as Boudreau’s, for the same number of All-Star seasons. Boudreau had a better peak, though.

Wilbur Wood – 21.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 6 AS. Solid career. If he had been able to keep up his knuckler longer, he’d be Red Faber.
   14. OCF Posted: August 28, 2006 at 03:36 PM (#2159269)
1984 Ballot. The triumph of the '82 Cardinals was short-lived, and there were some shockers, notably including Keith Hernandez being traded away. Lonnie Smith spent some time in a rehab clinic - it wasn't public information at first that the stories might be related.

As for my ballot: the first week of a semester isn't the time for sweeping reevaluations.

1. Joe Torre (----, 3) Not enough to be elected as a pure "bat" candidate, but it would be enough as a 3B, and he caught more games than Bresnahan.
2. Billy Pierce (2, 3, 3, 4, 4) With that many "bat" candidates, it's time for something else. Underappreciated by both the HoF and (so far) us.
3. Larry Doyle (3, 5, 4, 5, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
4. José Méndez (4, 6, 5, 6, 6) Maybe Koufax isn't the right comparison, but maybe Coveleski?
5. Bill Freehan (---. 7, 7) The tricky part is comparing a mostly-catcher candidate like Freehan to our part-catcher candidates: Bresnahan, Schang, Trouppe. A terrific two-year peak, a solid career.
6. Quincy Trouppe (5, 7, 6, 8, 8) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
7. Brooks Robinson (----, 9) For 15-16 years in the heart of his career, he was Ken Boyer, only slightly better - slightly better offense, somewhat better defense. The extra years outside that aren't worth much.
8. Orlando Cepeda (-, 9, 8, 9, 10) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I would take Cepeda over him.
9. Jimmy Wynn (----, 11) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
10. George Van Haltren (6, 10, 9, 10, 12) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
11. Norm Cash (-, 11, 10, 11, 13) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
12. Bucky Walters (7, 8, 7, 12, 14) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges.
13. Joe Sewell (8, 12, 11, 13, 15) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
14. Tommy Bridges (15, 19, 18, 14, 16) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
15. Ralph Kiner (9, 13, 12, 15, 17) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
16. Frank Howard (10, 14, 13, 16, 18) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
17. Orestes Miñoso (11, 15, 14, 17, 19) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value. Not the offensive value of the big HR hitters, but more mobile on defense.
18. Ken Boyer (12, 16, 15, 18, 20) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
19. Bob Elliott (13, 17, 16, 19, 21) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
20. Jake Beckley (14, 18, 17, 20, 22) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
21. Dick Redding (16, 20, 19, 21, 23)
22. Luis Aparicio (17, 21, 20, 22, 24) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
23. Hugh Duffy (18, 22, 21, 23, 25) Nothing new to say after all these years.
24. Rabbit Maranville (19, 23, 22, 24, 26) Glove and career length.
25. Mickey Vernon (20, 24, 23, 25, 27) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
26. Nellie Fox (21, 25, 24, 26, 28) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
27. Phil Rizzuto (22, 26, 25, 27, 29) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
28. Cupid Childs (23, 27, 26, 28, 30) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
29. Edd Roush (24, 28, 27, 29, -)
30. Vern Stephens (26, 29, 28, 30, -)
31. Dobie Moore

Boog Powell - I overlooked him last week, but I just can't quite squeeze him into the top 30.
Ron Fairly - long career, pretty good hitter. Almost but not quite Vernon.
Jim Fregosi - I have him about level as an offensive player with Stephens. That's suprising, at face value, but that's how different their circumstances were. If either one of Stephens or Fregosi had a better glove, he'd be quite a bit higher in my consideration set.
   15. Thane of Bagarth Posted: August 28, 2006 at 03:40 PM (#2159274)
1984 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but I try to allow additional career value to add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.


1) Brooks Robinson
While his career value is impressive (119 WARP3, 356 WS), his peak is OK, but not outstanding (48.6 in his 5 best by WARP3, 130 top 5 consecutive by WS).

2) Joe Torre
He’d have been on the ballot without a catcher bonus, but not in the top 5. 100+ WARP3 and 300+ WS are hard to argue with. Most of his career value comes from his bat (EqA .299, 129 OPS+), but BP sees his defense at C and 1B as above average (Rate is 102 for both; 3B is not so hot at 94).

3) Jose Mendez
I’m thinking Marichal might not be a bad comp for him, and it looks like Jose may just make it, too, one of these years.

4) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers—yet.

5) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

6) Ken Boyer
53.3 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is best among eligible hitters. Plus 102, WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

7) Bob Johnson
Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

8) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but, thanks to 300 extra IP and an OPS+ advantage of 13 points, Bucky wins out.

9) Quincy Trouppe
For a while now I’ve ranked him as the best available among those who primarily played catcher—the catcher bonus makes that much higher praise. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

10) Joe Sewell
His top 5 WARP is close to Boyer (52.4), but his 5-yr. consecutive Win Shares are a little lower. Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.

11) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 47.4 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career: 88.4 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

12) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner and Howard for best top 3 seasons in Win Shares (unadjusted for season length) with 102. The extra war credit for Keller gets him a spot above Kiner.

13) Billy Pierce
He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.

14) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

15) Minnie Minoso
Longevity, mixed with modest peak and some NeL credit gives him the edge over Kiner.

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Dobie Moore
17) Jim Wynn—The Toy Cannon comes out well in my rankings, or at least better than I expected. He should make the ballot in weak years. 100 WS in top 3 seasons rivals Kiner & Keller; 49.6 top 5 WARP3 is also in HoM-worthy territory.
18) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.
19) Burleigh Grimes
20) Norm Cash
21) Tommy Leach
22) Gavy Cravath
23) Jake Beckley—Sorta close to the ballot due to career value, still, 37.6 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
24) Harry Hooper
25) Rabbit Maranville
26) Charley Jones
27) Jimmy Ryan
28) Bob Elliott
29) George Van Haltren
30) Sam Rice
31) Jack Quinn
32) Phil Rizzuto
33) Nellie Fox
34) Dick Bartell
35) Alejandro Oms
36) Orlando Cepeda
37) Vada Pinson
38) Fielder Jones
39) Vern Stephens
40) Dom DiMaggio
41) Urban Shocker
42) Spotswood Poles
43) Rube Waddell—Small bonus for MiL play doesn’t move him all that close to the ballot. I feel like the bonus is justified mostly in that it makes up for what looks like an otherwise low IP career for his era.
44) Gil Hodges
45) Bill Freehan—Clearly a good, underrated player, but I credit Trouppe as better on career value and similar in peak value.
46) Carl Mays
47) Willie Davis
48) Bobo Newsom
49) Johnny Pesky
50) George Burns

Other Top Returnees Not in Top 50
75) Cupid Childs—I would like him better if his career value was a little higher. Still, there isn’t a huge gap between Childs down here and, say, Nellie Fox at 33.

New Guys in Top 100:
65) Wilbur Wood—Unique career, but his numbers don't add up to get him near the ballot. Among pitchers I’ve got him between Vic Willis and Dutch Leonard.

88) Jim Fregosi—He put up some solid seasons, but nothing to get real excited about.
   16. Max Parkinson Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#2159296)
1984 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Billy Williams and Bobby Doerr)

1. Jose Mendez

Would have been the third-best pitcher of the early teens, from what I can see in the good work of the NL folk here at the HOM.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Rube Waddell

Slight change to pitcher rankings, with a touch more emphasis on peak. Waddell hops Redding.

4. Joe Torre

Best hitting catcher of the sixties, and great years at 3rd and 1st later on.

5. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

6. Dick Redding
7. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

8. Joe Sewell

9. Brooks Robinson

The glove.

10. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

11. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.


12. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

13. George Burns

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

14. (N)Ed Williamson

Between Robinson, McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

15. Ben Taylor

16-20. Veach, Shocker, Keller, Cash, Minoso
21-25. Lazzeri, Walters, Bancroft, Pierce, Duffy
26-30. Konetchy, B. Johnson, Kiner, W. Wood, Freehan
31-35. Cicotte, Cuyler, Childs, Youngs, Bridges
36-40. Klein, Tiernan, Hooper, Rucker, F. Jones
41-45. Traynor, Rommel, Trouppe, Boyer, Bradley
46-50. F. Howard, Roush, Wynn, Oms, Willis
51-55. Trout, E. Howard, Seymour, Nicholson, Leach
56-60. Chance, Griffin, Cepeda, Gomez, Ryan
61-65. R. Thomas, Schang, S.J. Wood, Nash, Dunlap
66-70. Luque, Beckley, Harder, Bottomley, B. Elliott

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Kiner is 28. I might be missing the boat on him – I’ll promise to look in the next few “years”
Minoso is 20, and falling as I look at how many outfielders (hitters) we’re electing.
Pierce is 24.
Wilbur Wood is 29.
Nellie Fox is 75.
GVH is in the 120s.
Fregosi is below GVH.

On Freehan, he’s good, but like B. Williams, I just don’t see it. I don’t mean to read too much into people’s ballots, but I think that he’s getting bonus points for “best available catcher”, as if there’s a shortage of them. I don’t think that there is. If you want a shortage, look at 3B. We’ve (and my PHoM matches) elected 13 catchers. To this point in history, we know that we’re going to elect Bench, and probably Torre, and probably? Simmons. Gary Carter is off to a hell of a start, and Fisk has already done some good things. That could/should get us to 18. Call me one of the people who would like to see Freehan run the gauntlet against the true backlog for the last 2-5 spots for catchers in the HoM.
   17. Adam Schafer Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:59 PM (#2159367)
Still two catchers grabbing the elect me spots this year. Bottom of ballot is catcher heavy as well.


1. Bill Freehan - yes, I'm giving him the #1 spot, go ahead and flame me for it. Great
catcher, very underrated IMO. Granted he's not Berra, or Gibson, or Cochrane but he is
still one of the more elite catchers of all time. Yes Wynn is underrated, but Freehan was
very underrated as well.

2. Joe Torre - Close to Freehan, REAL close. Extra bonus for his catching obviously.

3. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins
were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I
guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games.
Welch may have pitched against worse teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the
same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all
major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of
the best over and over.

4. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

5. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

6. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in,
but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

7. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

8. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in
Batting Average.

9. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more
stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has
enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

10. Brooks Robinson - Overrated? yes. But not SO overrated that he didn't deserve his spot
in Cooperstown or his spot here. Would have him higher if he could've hit as well as
Traynor.

11. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I
didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support. He rarely struck out, didn't have
the glove that B. Robinson did, but had a better bat.

12. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I
didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of
room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

13. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

14. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

15. Quincey Trouppe - I'm starting to be become a believer.

16. George Van Haltren - he keeps hanging around the ballot.

17. Edd Roush -

18. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

19. Jimmy Wynn - Very underrated. Might even make my PHOM if I had one, I like him, don't
let this ranking at the 19 spot fool you. It's not his fault I think 18 people not elected
so far are more deserving.

20. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one
with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for
average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

21. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak
voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had
a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my
ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.

22. Ralph Kiner - If he could've had 2 more good (not even necassarily great) years, he
could've moved up to the top 3 or 4 spots on my ballot. As is, not enough career value for
me. Not too far from Dick Allen on my ballot.

23. Billy Pierce - I like Pierce, I really do. Spots 15-20 are extremely tight. I don't have
him ranked as far from Marichal as it may seem.

24. Cupid Childs - Extremley good 2nd baseman for his time. Not as much career as McPhee or
I would've liked him better. Still not 100% sure I even want him this high.

25. Tommy Leach -
   18. rawagman Posted: August 28, 2006 at 05:36 PM (#2159436)
Revamped my system this week, to have a more accurate reflection of career, creating a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. The top of my order remains relatively the same but many guys have moved around deep in the backlog. Some big leapers include Bobby Veach, Larry Doyle, Cy Williams, Jim Bottomley, Elston Howard and Mickey Welch. Big drops for Jim Wynn, Roger Maris, Bob Elliott and Jake Beckley. Jose Mendez joins my PHOM along with Willard Brown off my personal backlog. Torre made it last week and Brooks should be in for next week.

1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher (PHOM)
3)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
4)Joe Sewell (PHOM) - Hard to argue with contact.
5)Joe Torre (PHOM) - Fielding better than I had expected.
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Jose Mendez - too bad ESPN didn't show his ballot yesteday. (PHOM)
((7a)Willard Brown - I had been underestimating him severely. His reputation enhances his already wonderful numbers.)) (PHOM)
8)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime and glove than Beckley. This ranking may be an understatement.
9)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder.
10)Brooks Robinson - The majority of this is glove.
11)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week.
((11a)Dick Allen))
12)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak!
((12a)Billy Williams - Quite the sweet swing he had. His career with Kiner's peak would look something like Frank Robinson.))
13)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
14)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
((14a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
15)Nellie Fox - Low OPS+, but he is an exception to that measurement. SLG is negligible for him, he did quite well with the rest. Revamp gets Nellie back on the ballot.
16)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
17)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
18)Orlando Cepeda
19)Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.
20)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.
21)Wally Berger - super-underrated
22)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((22a)Juan Marichal))
23)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
24)Roger Bresnahan
25)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
26)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((26a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
27)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
28)Chuck Klein
29)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
30)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((30a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
31)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges
32)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
33)Cupid Childs
34)Pete Browning
35)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent.
36)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
37)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
38)Phil Rizzuto
39)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
40)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
41)John McGraw
42)Jimmy Ryan
43)Alejandro Oms
44)Cy Williams
45)Dolf Camilli
46)Luke Easter
47)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
48)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
49)George Kell
50)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
51)Pie Traynor - makes a leap to here.
52)Bucky Walters
53)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
54)Johnny Evers
55)Jim Bottomley
56)Elston Howard
57)Bob Johnson
58)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
59)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough (not anything) surrounding it.
60)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for prue "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
61)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
62)Red Schoendienst
63)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
64)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
65)Johnny Pesky
66)Hippo Vaughn
67)Bus Clarkson - A newcomer to the consideration set. More shades of Quincy.
68)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
69)Tip O'Neill
70)Rocky Colavito
71)Denny Lyons
72)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
73)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
74)Lon Warneke
75)Don Newcombe
   19. Al Peterson Posted: August 28, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#2159478)
rawagman,

I see Jim Bottomley at #30 and #55 on your ballot. I take it you have him at the higher ranking given your re-evaluation? Your top 75 is filled with names I haven't seen in awhile like Cy Williams, Pete Reiser, Denny Lyons. Makes me go back and say "am I missing something?" Better do it now as we thin the backlog.
   20. Chris Fluit Posted: August 28, 2006 at 06:22 PM (#2159497)
1. Brooks Robinson, 3B (2). I'm disappointed that Brooks didn't make it in last year, but I'm glad that I get to give him a first-place vote this year. The best third baseman and the best hitting career on the ballot.

2. Jose Mendez, P(3).
3. Dick Redding, P (4). Great pre-Negro League pitchers for the first half of the 1910s and the second half. Compare favorably to contemporaries like Coveleski and Faber as well as recent inductees like Bunning and Drysdale.

4. Quincy Trouppe, C (6).
5. Nellie Fox, 2B (5). After making the argument for Trouppe in the ballot discussion thread, I've decided to take my own advice and bump him up ahead of Fox. The best players on the ballot at their respective positions.

6. Alejandro Oms, CF (7). An overlooked star, picking up black ink in various leagues from 1923 to 1935.

7. Billy Pierce, P (8). I'm glad to see that the Pierce bandwagon is gaining momentum.

8. Burleigh Grimes, P (9). More of a peak than I had thought, the best prime of any pitcher on the ballot and career totals second only to Mickey Welch.

9. Minnie Minoso, LF (10). A stand-out in the integration era with black ink in six different seasons from 1952 to 1957.

10. Don Newcombe (13). Another integration era standout. He's the link between Hilton Smith and Bob Gibson. Gets full credit for his two years in Korea, as well as for his three minor league years considering he'd have gotten that credit if he had stayed in the Negro Leagues.

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (11). I decided that Newcombe's credited prime is as good as Cepeda's and his documented peak is certainly better, which results in this little flip-flop.

12. Rube Waddell, P (14). The peak and prime aren't nearly as short as I though. A dominant pitcher for ten years.

13. Luis Aparicio, SS (15). After my reevaluated ballot on the last election, I'm not sure that I'm happy with my positional bonus so I could see Aparicio moving up. Just not yet.

14. Hugh Duffy, CF (n/a). A welcome return for one of my favorite players from the 1890s.

15. Joe Torre, C/3B (n/a). Re-assessing my positional bonus did result in a boost for Torre, however, getting him on my ballot just in time to see him elected (in all probability).

Top Ten Returnees:
Bill Freehan: He'd be above my personal in/out line, but I have him only 5th among eligible catchers.
Joe Sewell: I've voted for him before, but now he's dropped back to about 25.
Ralph Kiner: Another player I've voted for before but has now dropped back to about 20.
   21. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 28, 2006 at 07:49 PM (#2159570)
1983, er, I mean 1984 ballot.

1. Jose Mendez: Dominant peak/prime with less career.

2. Bucky Walters: Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. I like peak in my pitchers.

3. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available.

4. Charley Jones: Best left fielder available. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

5. Joe Torre: As mentioned on his thread, at each of his three main positions, he’s either a pretty easy HOMer or a very close borderliner. I combine the three, and I get an outstanding hitter whose credentials are very clearly HOM caliber.

6. Bill Freehan: Outstanding catcher of the 1960s, and a clear HOMer in my book. His peak, prime, and career are all plenty strong for his position, and are more impressive than the ballyhooed tandem of Lombardi and Schang. In comparison to the Duke of Trallee, his peak is very slightly lower, but his prime and career slightly higher. Given Duke’s OF work, I prefer Freehan.

7. Brooks Robinson: Perhaps you’re surprised that he’s this high on my ballot? After all my talk of his overrating? I see him as the best third baseman available and as being the outstanding AL 3B of his period by a large measure. Well, OK, his competition was Sneezy, Sleepy, and Joe Foy, but he did dominate them thoroughly. His longggggg career, outstanding fielding, consistent All-Staredness, and long MVP-type season add up to enough to be HOMable. I see him as about the 15th best guy to play the position in the game’s history, and about the 10th best through 1983. I don’t think he’s the superhuman that every un-analytical fan who watched the 1970 World Series thinks he is, but I do think that he’s plenty good enough to be part of our pantheon.

8. Roger Bresnahan: Outstanding catcher-hybrid candidate. Good peak, especially for the position, and a robust offensive game. Bresnahan nq Freehan.

9. Billy Pierce: Wonderful 1950s ace pitcher. The innings may seem low, but I believe it is, in some part, due to his frequent use as a fireman. Lots o’ leverage there, plus he was an excellently effective moundsman.

10. Tony Mullane: Again with the unfair labor practice guys! Mullane racked up great seasons in the 1880s, got a one-year booting, continued racking up great seasons, pitched well in the 1890s NL, and looks a heckuva lot better than Mickey Welch to me.

11. Wilbur Cooper: One of those lefties that Jimmy Sheckard probably had trouble with. If only we had the PbP data to know! Dominant NL portsider of the 1910s-early 1920s.

12. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman available. Shaped like a hydrant, hit like a monster with some indication that park killed power. Absolutely dominant at his position throughout the 1890s.

13. Ned Williamson: Outstanding third baseman and a potent hitter of the 1880s. Probably the best 3B over the span 1878-1885, and then among the best SS in the game for a couple years after that.

14. Hugh Duffy: Best centerfielder available (sorry Mike!!!). His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Roush gang. [Note this is likely to change soon. I'm involved in a very long term re-eval, but the results won't be completely relfected in my ballot for a while. that said, I'm thinking about this placement and roush's placement carefully for future ballots.]

15. Elston Howard: Best catcher on the board...no. Best black catcher on the board...no. Best multi-position catcher on the board...no. Best catcher who played in the NgL on the board...No. OK, he's just real good, OK? Great peak, best catcher in AL for a few years running, MVP caliber seasons, all good stuff.


Joe Sewell: Forever on the fringes.

Ralph Kiner: Not impressed. I mean I am, but I’m not. How’s he much better than Minnie Minoso?

Minnie Minoso: How’s he much better than Ralph Kiner? He’s Dwight Evans and that’s probably not enough for my tastes. His MiL credit and NgL credit are ultimately helpful but not case-making information. They only take him one slot above Lou Brock, and that’s not good enough.

Rube Waddell: Mass confusion on this guy. Ultimately I don’t see him as impressive within context. His flakiness is sort of like Allen’s I guess, so I don’t literally hold it against him.

Newbies

Wood: Too many forkfulls. A victim of Chuck Tanner's blase attitude toward players keeping in shape?

Fregosi: Sewell-lite.

Fairly: Just lite.
   22. rawagman Posted: August 28, 2006 at 11:05 PM (#2159700)
rawagman,

I see Jim Bottomley at #30 and #55 on your ballot. I take it you have him at the higher ranking given your re-evaluation? Your top 75 is filled with names I haven't seen in awhile like Cy Williams, Pete Reiser, Denny Lyons. Makes me go back and say "am I missing something?" Better do it now as we thin the backlog.


Al, nice catch. Bottomley moved up to 30. I will correct that. Everyone from 56-75 will move up one slot and someone else will pop up to 75. Thanks.
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: August 28, 2006 at 11:52 PM (#2159725)
In my re-eval Bottomley is falling out of the top 100. I'm not sayin' 30 is wrong. Just the difference between 30 and 100 is "that much."
   24. rawagman Posted: August 29, 2006 at 12:28 AM (#2159759)
It's not really all that much for me. 30 is iffy in eventually making my PHOM
   25. Tiboreau Posted: August 29, 2006 at 02:38 AM (#2159864)
1. sp Jose Mendez (3, 4, 3)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
2. 2b Cupid Childs (4, 5, 5)—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
3. ss Dobie Moore (5, 6, 4)—Since his candidacy is based on his stellar peak (as well as pre-1920 credit) his numbers are underrated due to regression. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
4. lf Charlie Keller (6, 9, 8)—After WWII credit Keller’s peak, while not quite as high, is sufficiently stronger than Kiner’s to slip ahead. King Kong also receives credit for his last year with the Newark Bears.
5. sp Bucky Walters (7, 7, 6)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
6. lf Ralph Kiner (8, 8, 7)—Both Win Shares and WARP agree that Kiner & Keller were the best outfielders, peak-wise, available. Below Moore because, while their peak was better, Moore is closer to longer career, good peak infielders than the two peak-centric outfielders are to their counterparts.
7. 3b Brooks Robinson (9)—Never a meritorious hitter, even at his best, Hoover’s excellent defense kept his peak from slipping too far and a long career at third base with a solid peak is good enough to make my ballot.
8. c Bill Freehan (10, 10)—Two excellent seasons plus a few more solid ones make for a nice peak, the best among catchers according to Win Shares.
9. sp Dizzy Dean (11, 11, 9)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
10. 3b Al Rosen (12, 12, 10)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else. Career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
11. c Joe Torre (13)—Like others, I found Torre to be a difficult player to rate since I compare players within their positions first and Torre spent significant time at three very different positions. I feel I’ve split the difference by treating his numbers mostly as a third baseman’s, leaving him about equal to Robinson and Rosen (after combining peak and career).
12. cf Alejandro Oms (14, 13, 11)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
13. sp Rube Waddell (15, 14, 12)—While a real good player at his peak, his character created interesting issues for his teams, evidenced by his disappointing IP totals during that time and his UERA totals over his career.
14. cf Jimmy Wynn (ob)—One of my favorite ballplayers from before my time, an underrated ballplayer considering era and ballpark who combined speed and patience with surprising power for his stature, I’m happy to see him rate well. A real good peak, although the Toy Cannon’s inconsistency, mixing mediocre seasons with superb, hurts him a bit.
15. c Elston Howard (ob)—After pre-MLB credit, a similar player to Roger Bresnahan; his peak is slightly better, career slightly shorter. Howard jumps ahead Bresnahan, however, due to the fact that he was entirely a catcher during his peak, while Bresnahan spent significant time in the outfield during his best years.

Required Disclosures:
16. sp Billy Pierce (ob, ob, 15)—Did not have the IP per season I like, which is reflected in WS and WARP’s peak assessments, but this doesn’t account for leveraged IP and other strategic usage patterns.
32. ss Joe Sewell (ob)—He had a solid prime, dominating in an era of weak shortstops; however, his peak isn't quite as strong as I'd like and his best competition was banned from the majors. Similar in value to Bob Elliott according to WS.
33. lf Minnie Minoso (ob)—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory.
   26. Jim Sp Posted: August 29, 2006 at 05:56 AM (#2159949)
1) Mendez--PHoM in 1932.
2) Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939. 5 years with WARP3 > 10.0, plus an 8.8 and an 8.5. Easy best Warp peak of the holdovers. PHoM 1939.
3) Brooks Robinson
4) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. I was a WS guy but here in particular I think Warp has it right—great defense. PHoM in 1970.
5) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. PHoM in 1970.
6) Dick Redding--
7) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3.
8) Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years.
9) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8.
10) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
11) Elliott--PHoM in 1960.
12) Jimmy Wynn
13) Torre
14) Dobie Moore--
15) KellerAdded back the war credit.
   27. TomH Posted: August 29, 2006 at 02:27 PM (#2160149)
takin a long weekend, voting early...

1984 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP or OPS+ adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Brooks Robinson (1) [3]
The HoM has been good not to quickly honor defense-only guys such as Maz and Aparicio, but Brooks could do both. Only a 104 OPS+ for his career, but if you knock out the lousy early and late years, you have a 110 OPS+ over 2441 games. Add in approx 12 runs saved a year with the glove and you’re up to 125 OPS+ for a long-career third baseman.
2- Joe Torre (2) [4]
Complicated to place him, but he could hit and did play a lot of catcher, so he’s in, baby.
3- Joe Sewell (4) [7]
Great fielder, very good bat for a shortstop. I don’t fully discount his move to3B at the end, since it seems clear he still could have played shortstop if needed.
4- Billy Pierce (5) [11]
Similar to Bucky Walters, but no spiked peak. Some bonus value out of the bullpen.
5- Jake Beckley (6) [13]
Very fine career, understated by Win Shares.
6- John McGraw (7) [38]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen. The HoM is short of 1890s infielders. Big hit on my consensus score.
7- Bucky Walters (8) [27]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
8- Ken Boyer (9) [20]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader.
9- Cupid Childs (10) [12]
Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him. Consistently the best at his position, which not many on this ballot can say.
10- Bill Freehan (11) [6]
Wow. I was too young to appreciate his prime, growing up on Fisk/Bench/Munson, but why didn’t anyone tell me I missed someone that good just a few years earlier?
11- George Van Haltren (12) [22]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
12- Bob Johnson (14) [25]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists. Better according to WARP than Dick Allen!
13- Minnie Minoso (15) [10]
Very similar to Bob Johnson.
14- Frank Chance (14) [65]
Great player on great teams.
15- Ralph Kiner (15) [8]
Power prime!

16-20 would be Keller, Redding, Wynn, Bresnahan, DiMaggio
and 21-25 Monroe, Mendez, Waddell, Cash, Traynor or possibly Trouppe, still need to thunk more about him.
   28. DavidFoss Posted: August 29, 2006 at 02:43 PM (#2160165)
takin a long weekend, voting early...

Just a heads up to everyone. Monday is a holiday. That might disrupt your voting routine if you are a late voter. Vote early and often! ;-)
   29. DanG Posted: August 29, 2006 at 03:11 PM (#2160198)
I suggested to John that we keep the election open an extra day, as we did in 1977 for Memorial Day. At that time he posted:

Hmm...unless Joe objects, I think waiting until Tuesday (still at 8 PM EST!) makes sense, Dan.

It worked out well, we had six ballots on Tuesday for that election.

How about it, John?
   30. Sean Gilman Posted: August 29, 2006 at 07:28 PM (#2160562)
1984

1. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

2. Brooks Robinson (4)--WARP loves him a lot, but I suspect their defensive system is way out of whack. Win Shares thinks his peak is inferior to but in the same general area as Childs’s and Jones’s peaks. But Robinson’s got significantly more career value than either of them. Tommy Leach might actually be his most comparable player. . . .

3. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cupid Childs (6)--I don’t understand how he fell through the cracks, maybe things will turn around in the upcoming backlog years, but with the growing spectre of timelining, I doubt it. (1938)

5. Tommy Leach (7)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

6. Minnie Minoso (8)--Comparison with Clemente showed I’d been underrating his nice balance of career and peak in favor of more one-sided candidates. (1979)

7. Joe Torre (9)--Terrific peak for a catcher, or a third baseman. WARP likes him a lot more than Freehan, but I don’t know why.

8. Larry Doyle (10)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

9. Bill Freehan (11)--Good career value and an excellent peak for a catcher. Is he tremendously underrated by history, or am I just overrating him?

10. Edd Roush (12)--Another beneficiary of the Clemente Comparison. A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s.

11. Ken Boyer (13)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

12. Joe Sewell (14)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. (1976)

13. Hugh Duffy (15)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. Counting players not in my PHOM, I’ve got 11 Outfielders between Duffy at #15 and Vada Pinson at #35. There really isn’t much difference between any of them. (1964)

14. George Van Haltren (16)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

15. Jose Mendez (17)--Very slight edge over Mays, who hardly anyone appears to like as much as me. (1972)

16. Carl Mays (18) (1968)
(Max Carey)
17. Alejandro Oms (19)
(Richie Ashburn)
(Sam Thompson)
18. Ralph Kiner (20)
19. Nellie Fox (21)
(Joe Medwick)
20. Jimmy Wynn (22)
(Earl Averill)
21. Frank Howard (23)
(Joe Gordon)
(Bobby Doerr)
22. Quincy Trouppe (24)
(Red Faber)
23. Bob Elliott (25)
(Red Ruffing)
24. Vada Pinson (26)
25. Bucky Walters (27)
26. Wally Berger (28)
(Ted Lyons)
27. Dick Redding (29)
28. Ed Williamson (30)
29. Dobie Moore (31)
30. Norm Cash (32)
31. Orlando Cepeda (33)
(Bob Lemon)
32. Billy Pierce (34)
33. Vern Stephens(35)
34. Roger Bresnahan (36)
35. Dave Bancroft (37)
36. Jimmy Ryan (38)
37. Charlie Keller (39)
38. Tony Lazzeri (40)
39. Phil Rizzuto (41)
40. Rube Wadddell (42)
   31. AJMcCringleberry Posted: August 29, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2160679)
Better post my ballot in case the Tropical Storm knocks out my power.

1. Brooks Robinson - Greatest defensive third baseman ever.

2. Joe Torre - Great hitter as a catcher and third baseman.

3. Jose Mendez - Truly outstanding peak.

4. Bucky Walters - Not as good a peak as Mendez, but more career value.

5. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

6. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

7. Joe Sewell - Outstanding shortstop. And could hit a little bit too.

8. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

9. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

10. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

11. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

12. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

13. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

14. Minnie Minoso - Very good hitter, over 350 win shares after adding his negro league career.

15. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

16. Billy Pierce
17. Vada Pinson
18. Norm Cash
19. Hugh Duffy
20. Bob Elliot
21. Edd Roush
22. Tommy Leach
23. Harry Hooper
24. Bill Freehan
25. George Van Haltren
26. Alejandro Oms
27. Buzz Arlett
28. Orlando Cepeda
29. Gil Hodges
30. Burleigh Grimes
31. Willie Davis
32. Fielder Jones
33. Dick Redding
34. Pie Traynor
35. Ralph Kiner - Nice peak, but not much career value.

Waddell - Not enough career value.
   32. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 29, 2006 at 11:05 PM (#2160743)
I suggested to John that we keep the election open an extra day, as we did in 1977 for Memorial Day. At that time he posted:

Hmm...unless Joe objects, I think waiting until Tuesday (still at 8 PM EST!) makes sense, Dan.

It worked out well, we had six ballots on Tuesday for that election.

How about it, John?


Same thing applies, Dan. If Joe doesn't object, Tuesday is fine by me.
   33. Juan V Posted: August 30, 2006 at 12:36 AM (#2160797)
1984 ballot

1) Joe Sewell: Nice hitting for his position (and high AVG and OBP hitters like him are underrated by OPS+), defense...

2) Joe Torre: If he had spent more time at C (or even 3B), he would´ve been numero uno

3) Ralph Kiner: Pretty strong prime

4) Jose Mendez: Him, too

5) Alejandro Oms: A hidden gem, nice balance of career and prime

6) Cupid Childs: Another prime candidate, not quite on Kiner/Mendez levels

7) Ken Boyer

8) Brooks Robinson: Similar in many aspects, I put Boyer ahead since I like his offensive production better

9) Quincy Trouppe: Torre-light

10) Billy Pierce

11) Cannonball Dick Redding: Another set of "twins", like Boyer-Robinson. Pretty nice primes and respectable careers

12) Gavvy Cravath: With all non-MLB credit, this remarkable offensive player makes it

13) Bob Johnson: Some pretty good numbers, compiled (partly) against diminished opposition

14) Jim Fregosi: The Sewell/Childs comparisions are somewhat accurate. He wasn´t as good as those two, but still nice.

15) Rube Waddell: Nice peak, not that nice career.

Off ballot. Within each group, players are listed alphabetically. I have changed the structure of the groups, so instead of grouping five players each time, I now cluster together all player with similar scores, without paying attention to the size of the resulting groups.

16-22: Jake Beckley, Bill Freehan, Charlie Keller, Dobie Moore, Jimmy Ryan, Ben Taylor, Jimmy Wynn
23-28: Dave Bancroft, Pete Browning, Bob Elliott, Edd Roush, Pie Traynor, George Van Haltren
29-34: Larry Doyle, Hugh Duffy, Frank Howard, Nellie Fox, Chuck Klein, Minnie Miñoso
35-43: Luis Aparicio, Roger Bresnahan, Norm Cash, Orlando Cepeda, Luke Easter, Burleigh Grimes, John McGraw, Hack Wilson, Wilbur Wood

Disclosures

Freehan: Besides a couple of big seasons, he was in the good-but-not-exceptional range, which hurts him on my prime-carrer centric scorings. He is rising in my rankings though, and may make the ballot by the end of the "decade". Of course, chances are he´ll be elected before then.

Miñoso: For a guy in a bat position, there´s not enough bat.

Other newbies

Wood: For a prime candidate, his prime wasn´t that special. Will look good against the back of the pitching backlog, though

Everyone else: Not even good enough for my consideration set.
   34. Rob_Wood Posted: August 30, 2006 at 12:50 AM (#2160806)
1984 ballot from this highly career voter:

1. Brooks Robinson - best career on ballot
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career
3. Cupid Childs - dominating second baseman during the 1890s
4. George Van Haltren - star of the underrepresented 1890s
5. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
6. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
7. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
8. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop
9. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
10. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
11. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
13. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
14. Joe Sewell - very good shortstop (best in league)
15. Jose Mendez - one of the best negro league pitchers
-----
16-20. Aparicio, Minoso, Traynor, Torre, Freehan
   35. Rick A. Posted: August 30, 2006 at 02:25 AM (#2160900)
PHOM
Joe Torre
Early Wynn

1984 Ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
5. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
6. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
7. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
8. Hugh Duffy – Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
9. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
10. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11. Bill Freehan - Best catcher on the ballot. Elected PHOM in 1983
12. Edd Roush –Elected PHOM in 1975.
13. Joe Torre - Ranks behind Freehan since more of Freehan’s value came at catcher. Elected PHOM in 1984.
14. Ralph Kiner – Incredible peak. Elected PHOM in 1971.
15. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972

Required Disclosures
Minoso and Waddell Just miss my ballot
B. Robinson Better than Boyer, but not enough to make my ballot.
Sewell Behind too many other middle infielders.

Jim Fregosi is the best new candidate, but he's way back. Behind Bancroft and Maranville.

Off the ballot
16-20 Dean,Oms,EHoward,JWynn,Bresnahan
21-25 Minoso,Cravath,Waddell,Mays,Fox
26-30 Robinson,FHoward,Newcombe,Johnson,Elliott
31-35 Monroe,Trouppe,Doyle,FJones,Boyer
36-40 McGraw,Leach,Wilson,Keller,WCooper
41-45 Stephens,Matlock,Rizzuto,Cepeda,Poles
46-50 HSmith,Easter,Tiernan,Winters,Rosen
51-55 Bond,Schang,ACooper,Van Haltren,Ryan
56-60 DiMaggio,Traynor,Pinson,Pesky,Sewell
   36. DanG Posted: August 30, 2006 at 05:13 PM (#2161557)
My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #4 were elected. A four-year backlog bonanza begins in 1984, when Fregosi and Wood lead a weak freshman class. An elect-3 year in 1985 has no obvious HoMers, with Brock and Munson having the most impressive cachet. The drought continues in 1986 as we elect McCovey and another backlogger. Bonds and Bando lead off in 1987, when we elect three.

1) Brooks Robinson (2,ne,ne) – The old career lover strikes again. Nothing resembling a top-100 player, despite Bill James’ and others’ opinions. The first player to get booted in the Baseball Survivor exercise. Very durable player, long prime 1962-71, OPS+ nearly 120 for that decade.

2) Joe Torre (3,ne,ne) – The “intangibles” put him above Allen. Versatility, league strength and longer prime put him solidly over Freehan.

3) George Van Haltren (5,4,3) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned. In six years, 1972 to 1978, he went from the #1 unelected player to #15. Finished out of the top 20 for the first time ever last election. Why? Now in his 76th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

4) Tommy Leach (6,5,4) – Slipping a little more, he tends to lose down-ballot support when lots of good newbies crowd the ballot. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

5) Edd Roush (7,6,5) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. Support slipped again last election, falling back from #25. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

6) Minnie Minoso (8,7,6) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

7) Bill Freehan (9,8,ne) – More durable than Roger, even adjusted for era. Peak nearly as high. Could move up.

8) Roger Bresnahan (10,9,7) – Only about nine voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .380, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas
8—.386 N. Lajoie
9—.382 M. Huggins

9) Jake Beckley (12,11,9) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

10) Jimmy Ryan (11,10,8) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 13 voters who had GVH in their top twelve last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

11) Burleigh Grimes (14,13,11) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3750+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

11—3762 W. Hoyt
12—3760 J. Bunning
13—3759 B. Newsom

12) Wally Schang (13,12,10) – My other Lost Cause, along with Ryan. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

13) Charlie Keller (15,14,12) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too.

14) Cupid Childs (--,15,13) – I’ve voted for him ten times previously: 1914-15, 1942 and 1976-82. Edges Doyle on league strength and era dominance. Players with OBP over .400, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1—.455 B. Hamilton
2—.433 T. Cobb
3—.431 T. Speaker
4—.423 D. Brouthers
5—.421 E. Collins
6—.416 C. Childs
7—.415 J. Burkett
8—.413 R. Thomas
9—.411 E. Delahanty
10—.402 J. Kelley

15) Ralph Kiner (--,--,14) – Gets back his ballot spot. I’m not a big fan of short careers or narrow skill sets. But, I’ve never seen him on any “questionable hall of famers” survey. NBJHBA rates him ~#171. Like Keller, a long, high prime. Could move up.

Top tenners off ballot:

Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters. In fact, I have a suspicion that some of their lofty ranking is due to the fact that, because most of their analysis was the work of others, voters are unable to justify a downgrading.

Duffy was a regular on my ballot until 35 years ago and may return someday; like Thompson his raw performance was greatly inflated by a hitter’s park. I’ve never voted for Sewell, the “position-era domination” argument doesn’t do much for me. OTOH, I’ve never voted for Waddell because he ranks behind many other pitchers of his era, where it was easy for pitchers to dominate. In all three cases, their performances are not historically rare.

Pierce will be back soon.
   37. Mike Webber Posted: August 30, 2006 at 05:16 PM (#2161561)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

I read Mickey McDermott’s bio last week, “A funny thing happened on the way to Cooperstown.” Entertaining read, nothing super insightful, but if you need some light reading on a plane I’d recommend it – if you can get it cheap.

1) BROOKS ROBINSON - Very good, for a very long time.
2) EDD ROUSH –Andrew Siegel calls him the 16 best Centerfielder in Baseball History, including Negro Leaguers and those active in 2006. Sunnyday-Marc has him 13th or 14th among all eligible centerfielders including Negro Leaguers. Dr. C has him 11th in his system – though it does not include Negro Leaguers. Hey, I am just going along with the crowd J
3) BILL FREEHAN – If I had the choice between Torre and Freehan, I’d take the full career catcher, though I think both should be in.
4) JOE TORRE On the top 10 wines for less than $10 list in Business Week Vinos Torremoron 2004 Torremoron Tinto - Spain, 88 points, $10 – I’d think “Torre – Moron” would be popular with Red Sox and Mets fans.
5) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
6) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
7) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
8) MINNIE MINOSO – Paired with Kiner, but just behind him.
9) GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares. Even so, his career totals keep him ahead Duffy and the 19th century guys.
10) BILLY PIERCE - Pennants Added convinced me this is about right.
11) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
12) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
13) JIMMY WYNN – Solid player in the wrong environment (both era and field) to rack up black ink or traditional counting numbers.
14) KEN BOYER – My backlog is a mess, I’ll try to sort through them harder next week. Beyond Boyer and Cepeda, I have Traynor, Mendez, Mays, Wilis, Bresnahan, Schang, Howard,Duffy, Warneke, Moore and Doyle in a knot, that I guess needs to be unraveled if my ballot isn’t going to jump all over the place in the next decade.
15) Orlando Cepeda -

Disclosures – Jose Mendez, Dick Redding – difficult to measure, but I think Mendez is third among eligible pitchers – Redding slightly further down.
Waddell – I’d rather have Vic Willis among pitchers “not in” of that era.
Joe Sewell – I think Chris Cobb is on target with this one, ranks behind Maranville and Long and possibly Vern Stephens.

Newbies – Fregosi joins the deep backlog..
   38. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: August 30, 2006 at 07:05 PM (#2161797)
1984 ballot

This will be a short one with no new contenders and a move back to NY for the coming school year.

Billy Williams and Jimmy Wynn make my PHOM, BRobby and Doerr are on deck.

1. Charlie Keller - Best peak on the board, 9 MVp level seasons with war and MiL credit.

2. Bill Freehan - His career looks similar to Roy Campanella's MLB only career in my ssytem.

3. Cupid Childs - Best 2B of the 19c in my opinion. Great peak and good durability for a MIer of his era.

4. Hugh Duffy - Best of the 1890's CF trio due to a superior peak. I give him some of the credit WS gives him for his teams overachieving.

5. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind only Smokey Joe Williams and that ain't bad.

6. Ralph Kiner - 7 HR totals is impressive in any context, slihgtly lower than keller for me.

7. Bucky Walters - Two monster years in '39 and '40, a few nice years afterward as well.

8. Dobie Moore - New numbers have him as Ernie Banks without the years at1B, which isn't as impressive as the black Hughie Jennnings to me, but still HOM worthy.

9. Jimmy Wynn - Very nice peak, one of the best CF's in baseball for a long period.

10. Pete Browning - Great hitter who would be up with Keller and Kiner if I didn't have doubts about the quality of the 1880's AA.

11. Brooks Robinson - Maybe the best defensive 3Bman ever, good hitter during his prime. Long prime helps him to overcome lackluster peak.

12. Quincey Trouppe - Would have been a better selection than Biz Mackey, better peak and much better offensive player.

13. Rube Waddell - His UERs weren't that out of line with his era so his 124 ERA+ looks mighty impressive. Nice four year peak as well.

14. Joe Torre - Debuts on my ballot this year. I don't think he was as good a Freehan, but still HOM worthy.

15. Dizzy Dean - Koufax lite

16-20 E. Howard, K. Boyer, G. Cravath, J. Mendez, R. Bresnahan

Newbies
Fregosi is around #55, better than Wills and Pesky but behind Rizzuto, Sewell, Lundy, Bancroft, and Stephens.

Required Disclosures
Minoso - In order to seperate from the corner OF pack he needs a boost that his NeL and MiL numbers dont' give him.

Mendez - #19, will be back someday. However, I have trouble placing him over Waddell.

Sewell - Around #35, good hitter and good fielder. However, I like Rizzuto more and he isnt' that much better than a number of other backlog SS's. Dominated a weak field of AL SS in the 1920's.
   39. favre Posted: August 30, 2006 at 08:38 PM (#2161981)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Joe Torre
2. Charley Jones

Torre averaged an OPS+ of 136 from 1963-1972. That’s actually a pretty good ten-year run for a first baseman, but Torre played 74% of his games during that stretch at C or 3B. That makes him an easy #1 pick.

Jones averaged an OPS+ of 164 between 1876-1880, his 26-30 years. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2, his time in the AA, or the fact that he was born in North Carolina, which may have prevented him from entering baseball at an earlier age (he debuted at age 26 in 1876). I had basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part. Take a look at him again if it’s been a while.

3. Rube Waddell
4. Jake Beckley

Waddell posted eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. I’m glad to see he’s getting more support.

Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. It’s often been mentioned that Beckley has thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 122. A quick and dirty check reveals that only twenty-one other major league players who retired before 1979 have posted thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 120. I’ll spare you the list, but it’s some pretty rarified air: Crawford, Waner, and Wheat are by far the worst players of that group. I am by no means arguing that Beckley somehow belongs in that inner-circle; I just find it an interesting fact. (karlmagnus might argue that he belongs, however, which could start a fun flame war…)

5. Dobie Moore
6. Billy Pierce

I’ve dropped Moore some as Chris’ new numbers have sunk in, but I still think he’s the best shortstop on the ballot, and (Ernie Banks notwithstanding) has been for almost twenty-five years. He is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see how you could put Sewell ahead.

We are very short on pitchers from 1941-55. Pierce is the best pitcher left from the 1950s, averaging 242 IP with an ERA+ of 138 between 1951-58. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams with excellent defenses.

7. Ralph Kiner
8. Jimmy Wynn
9. Orestes Minoso

Kiner won OPS+ titles in ’47, ’49, and ’51—all when there was a guy in the league named Musial, playing in his prime. Wynn did not have a huge peak, but his prime is excellent, posting six seasons with an OPS+ between 140-167, five of those as a CF. He doesn’t have much outside his prime, but I’m a prime voter, so I don’t care.

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two; I’m glad to see the electorate is beginning to agree.

10. Vic Willis
11. Brooks Robinson
12. Nellie Fox

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

So far we only have four infielders from the 1950s (Robinson, Resse, Mathews, and Banks; also technically Killebrew, but he wasn’t a full-time player until ’59). We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot. Robinson is similar to Fox, but was a better hitter and had a longer career.

13. Bucky Walters
14. Roger Bresnahan
15. Gavvy Cravath

We are very short on 1940s pitchers. Walters prime from ‘39-46 (particularly his ’39-40 peak) earns him a spot. Although it is not a reason I’m voting for him, it would be good to have an HoM rep from the 39-40 Reds pennant winners. It was a tough battle between Bresnahan and Bill Freehan for a ballot spot, as I have them about even in my system. Bresnahan was, hands down, the best catcher between 1890-1910, while Freehan was a contemporary of Torre and Bench, so I’m giving Roger the edge.

Gavvy Cravath returns to my ballot after a decade-long absence. He averaged an 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not an age fluke. Similar to Kiner, although Kiner has the higher peak.

16-20: Bob Elliott, Cupid Childs, Jose Mendez, Bill Freehan, Ken Boyer


Jose Mendez: Has been in my pHoM for years, and is still in my top twenty. I will welcome his induction, although I think there are several pitchers with better cases in front of him.

Bill Freehan: See Bresnahan comment. currently #19 on my ballot.

Joe Sewell: See Moore comment. Sewell does not stack up well with other SS in the HoM.
   40. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 31, 2006 at 03:57 AM (#2162725)
Regarding post #32 - Tuesday is fine, makes sense.
   41. rawagman Posted: August 31, 2006 at 04:13 AM (#2162748)
the ballot will be called while I am over the atlantic. very suspenseful.
   42. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 31, 2006 at 06:14 AM (#2162809)
Are you coming or going?
   43. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 31, 2006 at 01:10 PM (#2162883)
Are you coming or going?

I'm very tempted to quote Lily von Stupp here, but this being a family-oriented site, I shall forbear. ; )
   44. rawagman Posted: August 31, 2006 at 02:01 PM (#2162935)
Going. I have been in Canada since August 20th. Returning to Israel on Tuesday. Caught a Jays game with Max Parkinson and Daryn while I was here. Bad game, but great guys.
   45. Jeff M Posted: August 31, 2006 at 05:00 PM (#2163164)
1984 Ballot

1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

2. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

3. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

4. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

5. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon in my system.

6. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on certain career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

7. Cravath, Gavvy – A re-evaluation, and a victory for Joe Dimino.

8. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be. I can’t really read Joe Dimino’s chart on the pitching thread, but based on the comments, it appears Waddell comes out fine there too.

9. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position, I’ve given him the higher spot.

10. Robinson, Brooks – I probably have him a tad low, since his WS defensive numbers are probably lower than they should be. However, he did spend a good portion of his career struggling to be an above-average hitter. I won’t be upset if he is elected.

11. Pierce, Billy – I think he is just on the wrong side of the HoM line, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

12. Boyer, Ken – A heck of a lot better than I thought.

13. Moore, Dobie -- I’ve never had a good handle on him. I don't think of myself as either peak or career, since I use dozens of measures in my "system." I think his placement might indicate a latent tendency towards career, though.

14. Wright, Bill – Digging deep into the mysteries of the Negro League infielders.

15. Clarkson, Bus – Ditto.


Required Disclosure(s):

Torre, Joe – If he was a catcher his entire career, he’s #1 on my ballot. If he was a third baseman his entire career, he’d be at the end of my ballot. If he had been a first baseman his entire career, he’d be out of my consideration set. Considering he played almost as much at 1b as at catcher, that puts him significantly off the ballot.

Mendez, Jose – He’s not in never never land like Redding, but he’s got a ways to go before making the ballot.

Freehan, Bill – I see him as a decent bat for a catcher, but not HoM quality. Perhaps I’m undervaluing his defense…easy to do for catchers I did not see play. I’d put him ahead of Torre in the rankings.

Kiner, Ralph – I’ve still got him as a short-career, weak-defending .274/.393/.539 guy. Wish he had played a couple more years.
   46. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 31, 2006 at 05:13 PM (#2163192)
1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM

Oh, no! Have to start working on Heinie's HoM plaque. Better late than never! ;-)
   47. andrew siegel Posted: August 31, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2163696)
1) Keller (3rd)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). The only player on the ballot who played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up.

(2) Torre (new)--Uniquely valuable player. Ever so slightly ahead of Freehan on my calculations.

(3) Mendez (7th)--Because someone has to go here. Four years as Christy Mathewson and enough additional career that he in not Dizzy Dean.

(4)Freehan (5th)--Like Charlie Bennett or I-Rod, so good with his glove that he was an All-Star even when he hit like a run-of-the-mill catcher and an MVP candidate the few years he really hit.

(5) Roush (10th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except Keller and the third basemen. A star in his own time.

(6) Cravath (4th)--Not quite the offensive force that Keller or Allen was, but consistently close to that level.

(7) B. Robinson (8th)--Using comparisons to Sewell (not as good on a season-by-season comparison but nips him on career length) and Boyer (very similar but one rung better) to place him.

(8) Sewell (9th)-- I see both sides of the argument, but am ultimately persuaded by the rarity of his combination of glove and bat.

(9) Pierce (12th)--Fits with those we've elected.

(10) Bob Johnson (14th)--Noses ahead of Minoso.

(11) Minoso (13th)

(12) Cash (11th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(13) Bridges (15th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(14) Trouppe (unranked/23rd)--Jumps back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills.

(15) Leach (unranked/17th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that being worth more than 5 or 10 spaces.

Wynn is 16th after being leapfrogged by two guys (seven great seasons but they were scattered and there isn't much else to recommend him), followed by Boyer, Childs, Elliot, and Oms.

Kiner only had four particularly good years (he's in the 20's) and Waddell strikes me as not worth the trouble (he's around number 70).
   48. Al Peterson Posted: August 31, 2006 at 08:50 PM (#2163729)
1984 ballot coming up. Since we had no new candidates to get worked up about I took time to go over my ranking system for both hitters and pitchers. There are some major changes. I’ve tried to take more of a fielding slant so C/SS/3B seems to be helped. Brooks Robinson moves high up ballot just in time for election. A sad day as well; Bob Johnson falls from my ballot. I hope he returns soon.

1. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book.

2. Rube Waddell (4). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

3. Brooks Robinson (17). Extremely long career brings down many rate stats but a large chunk of quality work in the middle makes for a nice prime. Can’t keep this glove from the HOM.

4. Joe Torre (5).
Part-time catcher, worked in a little 3B and 1B. Still a fully capable hitter so didn’t need to be benched when the tools of ignorance came off. Underrated in history – many current fans probably know him only as the Yankee skipper.

5. Billy Pierce (9). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that. I buy into the leverage argument for him, seemed to come into tight relief spots the way an ace should.

6. Norm Cash (7). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things.

7. Joe Sewell (12). I’ve come around a little bit on the ironman. His work at SS was excellent, lacked a little in length but not enough to dismiss as a candidate as we delve into the backlog.

8. Tommy Leach (11). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

9. Bill Freehan (22). 11 time All-Star, 5 time Gold Glove. I can’t go against observers so much that he doesn’t ballot.

10. Jimmy Wynn (8). There’s a peak there to consider – just didn’t put it all in one straight stretch. The Toy Cannon made many a Houston fan happy during the 60s and 70s.

11. Tony Mullane (19). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted.

12. Ken Boyer (23). Like a Robinson in quality, didn’t quite play as long.

13. Dobie Moore (14). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

14. Cupid Childs (15). This is a nod to similarities to Sewell. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

15. Roger Bresnahan (45). Welcome to the party. Gets the catching bonus and runs with it to jump into the last ballot place. Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century.

16-20: Bancroft, Mendez, B. Johnson, Oms, Minoso
21-25: Walters, Ryan, Elliott, Poles, Roush
26-30: Byrd, C Mays, Browning, Stephens, Welch
31-35: Schang, Shocker, Duffy, Easter, Evers
36-40: Willis, Bartell, F Howard, Luque, Ben Taylor
41-45: Grimes, Keller, Trouppe, Bridges, Doyle
46-50: Lombardi, Cicotte, Chance, Quinn, Beckley

Top 10 Returnees: Mendez(#17), Minoso (#20), Kiner(#60). My ranking system tries to mix the peak, prime and career aspects into a single answer. Mendez and Minoso are close, real borderliners when it comes to the HOM. Kiner gets killed by his fielding prowess (or lack thereof) and just needing another strong year or so.

New guys: Fregosi doesn’t do it for me. Eyeballing it I see him near #80 – a decent enough player but we have many who are more deserving. Wood, love the knuckleball but there wasn’t the number of heavy duty years to set him apart from the pack.
   49. jimd Posted: September 01, 2006 at 12:23 AM (#2163972)
I’ve tried to take more of a fielding slant

No Dunlap ;-?
   50. rico vanian Posted: September 01, 2006 at 02:45 PM (#2164570)
Hybrid voter- I'm big on career and peak with a side order of black ink. I don't give alot of credit generally to the "what-ifs" (ie: military, injury, alien abduction, etc.)


1) Brooks Robinson – The BA bothers me, but the fielding and career value are too compelling.
2) Ralph Kiner - 7 home run titles in a row. I see a lot of attention to players who had a few good years and how deserving they are to be HOM’ers, but jeez, this guy led the league in Home Runs 7 straight years! Mega peak.
3) Nellie Fox - 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
4) Ernie Lombardi - 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
5) Chuck Klein - 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
6) Burleigh Grimes - 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie Trayner - .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8) Luis Aparicio - nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
9) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
10) Rube Waddell- The Randy Johnson of the 20th centuries' first decade. Randy just doesn't have a sense of humor (but might be just as insane as Rube was).
11) Phil Rizzuto - SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
13) Jake Beckley - almost 3000 hits.
14) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
15) Ken Boyer -. MVP. 7 all star games. Better hitter than Brooks Robinson and almost as good in the field. Brooks has a higher ranking due to career value.
almost doesn't count

16) Jose Mendez- So much of his career is anecdotal, it's hard to quantify. But how many years did he truly excel?
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) Joe Sewell - Needed a couple of more seasons. I find his strengths are similar to Nellie Fox’s, but Fox was better.
19) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
20) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
21) Bill Freehan – I did not realize how good he was until now. Might go higher in the future.
22) Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
23) Orlando Cepeda-
24) Billy Pierce - Very good, not great.
25) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
26) Cupid Childs – Short career, not much black or grey ink.
27) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
28) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
29)Joe Torre - like him better as a manger than a player

there are no newbies that are anywhere near consideration. However, Wayne Garrett and Jerry Grote get a mention for being on the '69 Mets!
   51. Howie Menckel Posted: September 01, 2006 at 04:25 PM (#2164710)
1984 ballot, our (and my) 87th ballot.

Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
OF fielding I find is a little overrated among the voters.

I had electees Dick Allen at No. 5 and Billy Williams No. 9 last year.

1. RALPH KINER - His competitiveness with Kaline over his top 9 years and even with Killebrew for a long stretch as well helps keep him climb to the top slot for the first time. Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
2. BILLY PIERCE - Moved up four slots 2 years ago to 'elect-me' as we continue to see few rivals in post-WW II pitching. Bob Gibson-lite, if you ask me. Put up a good fight with Marichal in recent years, but the Dominican Dandy's seasonal durability won the day. Pierce's leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.

3. JOE TORRE - He's quite a masher from 1963-71, and gets a positional bonus even if not a fielding bonus (if you accept him as passable in his C or 3B years, that is a huge boost to his team's chances of winning). Hit nearly as well and as long as Billy Williams, and longer than Bob Johnson. It IS hard to slot him due to the three positions he played, but that is NOT a good reason to hurt his chances of election.
4. BROOKS ROBINSON - The longevity ultimately wins me over - you have this great-fielding 3B who can hit for the position, but it wouldn't be enough if he didn't climb to 15 useful seasons, a rare mark. Wildly overrated by history - odd to say of a 15-time All-Star - but a really good player.
5. JAKE BECKLEY - Kiner finally overtook him on my ballot a few yrs ago, and it's tough for Jake to handle some of the new borderliners.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (it was a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially newer voters.
6. CUPID CHILDS - This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support. Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better.
7. RUBE WADDELL - Bumped up 7 slots in the last 2 ballots as I rethink him. Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, never led his league in IP and only in the top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But the 2nd-best P on the ballot.
8. BILL FREEHAN - Slips back to his original slot after climbing to 5th last year; he survived a faceoff with Bresnahan and Schang (see Torre thread), but I'm still mulling him vs guys like Lombardi. Two spectacular seasons (1967-68) and four other very good ones. 1974 is a little odd; the 137 OPS+ looks great but he is a 1B-C that year. The 105-106 OPSs in 1969-70 are good for a catcher, too, and he gets a fielding bonus even by catcher standards.11 times an All-Star, a big number.
9. BOB ELLIOTT - My HOM in-out line may well be right here. If you haven't examined him in a while, or ever, get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
10. NELLIE FOX - His highest slot ever. Clearly the best of an era, clearly underrated. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends.
11. MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but I'm disappointed to see that such negligible Negro Leagues credit is due. I thought he was a better player there than we discovered. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
12. BOB JOHNSON - Moved back onto my ballot a few yrs ago after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
13. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot 2 yrs ago, still hanging on. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.
14. BEN TAYLOR - A bit of a flyer here, but has a long career, a little pitching bonus, a little fielding bonus, a little Hall of Fame bonus - just enough to sneak onto my ballot, possibly for the first time.
15. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Off my ballot for a long time, then on a while, off for five years, and now back this year. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.


TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
JOSE MENDEZ - I reread his whole thread several yrs ago (it's long). I am satisfied as to Mendez being able to pitch to a level of a HOMer at his best, but there's not quite enough there for me. Still better than most pitchers available, and could someday grab a No. 15 spot, but he doesn't quite rate with me right now. Sorry, Jose.
JOE SEWELL - I prefer great-hitting SSs, or long-career ones, or great fielding ones at least. Sewell is a HOVG SS-3B, and Pie Traynor was a better INF who gets little love.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
ORLANDO CEPEDA - First time missing my ballot, could come back. Cepeda was a textbook All-Star hitter for his day, and unlike Kaline and especially Clemente he was a stud from Day 1. Seems to have been a good 1B in his day (I mostly just remember him as an end-career DH with the Red Sox). At this point, not penalizing him for refusing to move positions to help his team - for this fact, Derek Jeter is grateful, lol.
GAVVY CRAVATH - Have voted for him for many years, but we just have so many sluggers now. I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Our first DHer on a ballot. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135.
NORM CASH - My gripe is that he often had 100 fewer PA (adjusting for pre-expansion guys) than the competition each year. Good 1B and very reliable when in the lineup, but he's the first one to really confound my OPS+ lists. While they're just a get-started point anyway, in Cash's case I needed to make more adjustments than usual. Still might fight his way onto the ballot someday, however.
PETE BROWNING - Ran out of room for this big slugger, too. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but if the ballot ever thins it's inevitable he may reappear.
   52. Trevor P. Posted: September 01, 2006 at 05:24 PM (#2164777)
1984 Ballot. Time constraints and a long weekend to be spent in Northern Ontario mean everyone moves up two spots this week.

1) Joe Torre (1). What a tough choice. If I consider Freehan to be top-10, well, Torre crushes him offensively and has an additional 2000 PA on his resume. Plus, the fielding versatility probably helped his teams in their roster composition - a small plus, but Torre’s got a lot of them.
2) Brooks Robinson (2). Just nudges ahead of GVH; a bit of a discount for weaker AL and my hypothesis that WARP overrates fielding above replacement. But still, huge career totals, and his rate stats look better if you disregard those last three seasons. (Side note: I think Robinson’s career is very similar to Pee Wee Reese, whom I had below GVH when he was on the ballot. I now consider that to have been a mistake.)
3) George Van Haltren (3). Consolidated league, long career, scads of win shares, and a pretty decent late-career prime. Don’t be swayed by the latest WARP translations (or, if you are, make sure you vote for Bob Johnson!) - GVH belongs.
4) Jake Beckley (4). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite a lot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
5) Billy Pierce (6). I know it’s in vogue to compare Pierce to Marichal. But we enshrined contemporary Bob Lemon, and Pierce has nearly double (198 to 107) the amount of adjusted PRAA, and wins out in DERA 3.97 to 4.17. Do 220 more total bases at bat really make up that difference? If Lemon belongs, so does Pierce.
6) Bill Freehan (7). I’m a bit more certain of Freehan’s merit than I am of Trouppe’s. Helps that he starred in the years just before the catcher glut of Torre, Munson, Bench, Simmons, and so on. Thus concludes the “Players Named Bill” section of my ballot.
7) Quincy Trouppe (8). More appearances per season than Schang, and a much better hitter than Mackey - probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
8) Cupid Childs (10). Coming into the 1970s, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation in 1971 underscored how impressive his peak really was.
9) Bob Johnson. (11) Beats Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s. Something interesting I noticed awhile ago - Johnson appears to be the only eligible player we haven’t enshrined who, according to BP’s translations, would have hit 500 HRs.
10) Edd Roush (12). Hurt by the discount to WARP3. Comparable to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
11) Burleigh Grimes (13). Substantial movement in 1976 after comparing his case with Eppa Rixey, whom I had as high as #2. His extreme highs are enough to balance out his scary lows; if he’d grouped them all together, instead of vacillating between the two extremes, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
12) Minnie Minoso (14). Similar to Bob Johnson; placement depends on how much credit you give for his pre-ML play. I can’t fathom how one could have Minoso in an elect-me position and Johnsn off-ballot, though.
13) Jimmy Ryan (15). All the GVH comparisons are valid; I just think Van Haltren’s a tad better. Might’ve been the Billy Williams of the 19th century with a higher peak.
14) Bob Elliott (off). Similar to Hack; better than Boyer when one looks at his era’s competition at 3B.
15) Dick Redding (off). A slightly lesser version of Burleigh Grimes, in my estimation, without the mind-boggling lows.

Joe Sewell - At #16. Bumped the past two years by the onslaught of new candidates.
Rube Waddell. His era’s Tommy Bridges? Just sitting out of my top 20.
Jose Mendez - Would’ve been below Koufax, whom I had around #25.
Hugh Duffy - Win Shares might like his fielding, but WARP declares him to be average. His 1894 doesn’t impress me as much when league strength is taken into account.
Ralph Kiner – In a second tier of short-career corner outfielders like Charlie Keller and Pete Browning. He’s the best, though, and currently just sneaks into the top 20.
   53. jimd Posted: September 02, 2006 at 12:59 AM (#2165240)
Beating the holiday traffic.

Ballot for 1984 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) B. ROBINSON -- Very long prime sustaining value useful at a championship level. OTOH, no season would be confused with the best player in baseball. Prime 1960-1974. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1962. Other star seasons include 1960, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1971, 1974. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1961, 1969, 1970. Best fielding MLB 3B in 1967, 1968, 1969 by both WARP and WS. Each system adds other seasons with no consensus.

2) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

3) J. TORRE -- Moved up from last week due to catcher bonus. Prime 1963-1973. Best player candidate 1971. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1964, 1965, 1966; WS adds 1971 at 3B. Other star seasons include 1970, plus 1969 at 1B. HM in 1963, 1967, plus 1973 at 1B.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

5) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

6) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

7) J. WYNN -- Scored much higher than I thought he would; excellent prime. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

8) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

9) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could field and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each.Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

11) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

12) J. MENDEZ -- Bumped up as a result of my battery reevaluation.

13) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy, but there's no room. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

14) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

15) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he's ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

16) B. FREEHAN -- Reassessing catchers in general. Prime 1964-73. Best player candidate 1968. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1967, 1968; WS adds 1971. Other star seasons include 1964, plus 1973 at 1B. HM in 1972.

17) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

18) B. PIERCE -- My pitcher's glut moves up. Prime 1950-58. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1955; WS adds 1952, 1953, 1958. Other star seasons include 1951. HM in 1950, 1956, 1957.

19) R. WADDELL -- HOM needs pitchers. Prime 1902-08. Best player candidate 1902. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1905; WARP adds 1904. Other star seasons include 1903. HM in 1906, 1907, 1908.

20) D. DEAN -- He's just missing this ballot. Prime 1932-36. Best player candidate 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Norm Cash, Jake Beckley,
23-24) Ralph Kiner, Joe Tinker,
25-26) Bill Hutchison, Hugh Duffy,
27-28) Dizzy Trout, Edd Roush,
29-30) Willie Davis, Tommy Leach,
31-32) Dick Redding, Nellie Fox,
   54. dan b Posted: September 02, 2006 at 01:46 AM (#2165337)
1. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons.
2. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
3. Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964.
4. Freehan NHBA has Torre ahead of Freehan, but I prefer the full time catcher.
5. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
6. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
7. Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
· 3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
· 5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
· 8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
· WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
· OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
· NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16 (and BJ is a timeliner)
· Too bad we elected Ashburn.
8. Torre PHoM 1984. A couple more years like 1971 would put him near the top of this ballot.
9. Robinson, B PHoM 1984. Not much to excite peak voters, but too much career to ignore. His “peak” towers over Beckley, a team led by Brooks could win.
10. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
11. Pierce Moving up. By WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
12. Minoso PHoM 1972.
13. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
14. Wynn, J Will be on my ballot in ’84.
15. Boyer, K More deserving than Sewell.
16. Fox, N
17. Howard, F
18. Howard, E
   55. Brent Posted: September 02, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2165419)
1984 Ballot:

A weak entering class makes this election a consolation run-off for the 1983 losers. Two catchers, Bill Freehan and Joe Torre, make my personal hall of merit.

1. Brooks Robinson – 10 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 35 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). MVP for 1964; placed in top 10 in MVP voting 7 times; World Series MVP for 1970; 16 Gold Gloves. (PHoM 1983)

2. Bill Freehan – 5 Gold Gloves, placed in top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. Last year I carefully compared Freehan with Torre and became convinced that Freehan's additional 700 games caught and excellent defense more than offset Torre's 17-point OPS+ advantage, so I was surprised to find that most of the voters disagreed. (PHoM 1984)

3. Orestes Miñoso – 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31; placed in top 10 in MVP voting 5 times. As I observed on my 1978 ballot, in his prime Miñoso was not far behind Clemente. (PHoM 1970)

4. Joe Torre – MVP for 1971; placed in the top 10 in MVP voting twice; 1 Gold Glove. A very good hitter who also helped out enough with the defense. (PHoM 1984)

5. Phil Rizzuto – Great defensive shortstop and an above-average hitter for the position. MVP for 1950, placed in top 10 in MVP voting 3 times; World Series MVP for 1951; age 26-28 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

6. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

7. Jimmy Wynn – 7 seasons with 28+ WS, with a high of 38. An overlooked star.

8. Ken Boyer – 8 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 33 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). Five Gold Glove awards. MVP for 1964; four times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1975)

9. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. From 1920-26 with the Monarchs, he was 26-12, 2.70 ERA, and hero of the 1924 Negro World Series. (PHoM 1938)

10. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). From 1921–29 (ages 26 to 34), he averaged an MLE OPS+ of 138 while playing center field with excellent range. Check out the Oms thread. (PHoM 1967)

11. Nellie Fox - 9 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 34 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). “A” defensive second baseman; 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. MVP for 1959; six times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1979)

12. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

13. Elston Howard – Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964. (PHoM 1977)

14. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

15. Dobie Moore – – “A superb fielder with outstanding range and a terrific arm...An outstanding hitter, he hit for average and could also hit the long ball.” —James A. Riley.

Near misses:

16-20. Dean (PHoM 1958), Redding (PHoM 1976), F Howard, Cepeda, Cravath (PHoM 1976)
21–25. Grimes (PHoM 1940), Newcombe, Keller, Bresnahan, Leach (PHoM 1932)

Other consensus top 10:

Joe Sewell – Among shortstops, I prefer Rizzuto, who was a superb fielder and an all-star quality shortstop through age 35 (Sewell's last year at SS was age 29) and Moore, who hit better and fielded at least as well as Sewell over a similar length career.

Ralph Kiner – ranks behind F Howard, Cepeda, and Cravath who had similar peaks and longer careers, and also behind Keller, who had a better peak in an even shorter career.

Rube Waddell – had a very short prime for an HoM candidate—only five really good seasons. His case is hurt by unearned runs, poor batting, poor fielding, and work loads that were fairly light by the standards of his era. There are at least a dozen pitchers who are better candidates.

Other new arrivals:

Wilbur Wood (ranked # 67) had a few really good years. Jim Fregosi (ranked # 91) was a very good shortstop. Ron Fairly – long career, decent bat, good fielder – looks a whole lot like Jake Beckley to me, which is why I've ranked him a little below Beckley and outside of my top 100.
   56. Howie Menckel Posted: September 02, 2006 at 01:46 PM (#2165620)
(rant alert)

"Ron Fairly – long career, decent bat, good fielder – looks a whole lot like Jake Beckley to me, which is why I've ranked him a little below Beckley and outside of my top 100."
Well, they're both white, and played baseball, so they do a look a little bit alike at first glance.
Now let's look a little closer:

Other than 5 finishes between 6th and 10th in BB, Fairly was virtually never in the top 10 in any counting stat.
Beckley was top 10 in RBI a dozen times, along with perennial top 10s in hits, HRs, doubles, triples, total bases. Beckley had a total of 46 top-10 finishes in those six categories (new electee Billy Williams, another long-prime candidate, had 48); Fairly had ZERO. Alike? Maybe not so much.


Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
RFairly's OPS+s as a regular: 141 24 23 19 19 19 15 14

Fairly also had 144 142 131 in three seasons of 409, 357, 301 PA in 162-game seasons, but he qualified only by the skin of his teeth in many of the above seasons. Fairly only cleared 564 PA once; Beckley had a better rate more than a dozen times. So the dge is even greater than it first appears. Alike? Not so much.

Fairly had 21 seasons, 8437 PA, 117 OPS+, split almost evenly between a less-valuable 1B and OF.
Beckley had 20 seasons, 10470 PA, 125 OPS+, 99 pct at 1B when it was more valuable.
Many of Beckley's seasons were 130-140 games; Fairly's were almost all 162 games.

If a peak voter doesn't want to list Beckley, I understand the case.
But I still think there was voters out there who don' always recall the oft-shortened schedules of the 1880s and 1890s.
   57. OCF Posted: September 02, 2006 at 03:55 PM (#2165673)
Although I have Fairly quite a bit closer to Beckley than Howie's analysis would suggest, I also have someone else in between them: Mickey Vernon. I would suggest that anyone who wants to consider Fairly start by comparing him to Vernon.
   58. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 02, 2006 at 05:51 PM (#2165752)
Other than 5 finishes between 6th and 10th in BB, Fairly was virtually never in the top 10 in any counting stat.
Beckley was top 10 in RBI a dozen times, along with perennial top 10s in hits, HRs, doubles, triples, total bases. Beckley had a total of 46 top-10 finishes in those six categories (new electee Billy Williams, another long-prime candidate, had 48); Fairly had ZERO. Alike? Maybe not so much.


Howie, you forgot to mention that Beckley performed in a one-league environment for a good chunk of his career. In a two-league environment, he would have had that many more top-ten finishes.
   59. Howie Menckel Posted: September 02, 2006 at 07:25 PM (#2165866)
Well, Fairly competed mostly in 10- and 12-team leagues, so there isn't the adjustment required that there should be for Beckley vs a 1901-60 guy.
Yes, Vernon has 38 such finishes vs Beckley's 46, though all in the aforementioned 8-team leagues, so you do adjust there.
   60. Daryn Posted: September 03, 2006 at 07:50 PM (#2166533)
1. Brooks Robinson (A-) – I’m actually not that impressed with Brooksie. Not in my top-125 of all-time. Still, better than the backlog, all of whom you could make good arguments ought to be excluded from the HoM.

2. Mickey Welch (A-) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

3. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

4. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

5. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

6. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

7. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

8. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+. A freak pick on my ballot with his woeful ~1450 hits, but I just like everything else a lot.

9. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

10. Orlando Cepeda (C) – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

11. Jose Mendez (C) – His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Pierce (who I have in the 40s), Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin.

12. George Van Haltren (C) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Jimmy Ryan (C) – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

14. Sam Rice ( C)-- 2987 hits speaks to me.

15. Pete Browning (C-) – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

16. Joe Torre (C-) – in the Boyer, Doerr, Gordon ballpark.

17. Freehan (C-)– best catcher on the Board – I have flip flopped him with Bresnahan, but think both should be on the outside looking in – as others have said, Freehan is the veritable definition of a bubble candidate.

20. Joe Sewell C- – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense.
23. Minnie Minoso C-
   61. SWW Posted: September 03, 2006 at 08:00 PM (#2166553)
A lot of laboring this Labor Day weekend. Tough ballot..

<u>1984 Ballot</u>
1) Brooks Calbert Robinson, Jr.
The Hoover. Not as strong a peak as, say, Ron Santo, but still a strong presence at the hot corner. The position of third baseman is really coming into its own with these recent candidates. 61st on Ken Shouler Top 100. 32nd on SABR Top 100. 35th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 80th on Sporting News Top 100. 91st on Bill James Top 100. 50th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A missing link in our recognition of baseball at the end of the deadball era and at the start of live ball. I was intrigued by the assertion that Grimes is “the Jake Beckley of pitchers”. I disagree. Grimes has some legitimate highs; he beats Beckley on Black Ink 38 to 1. I feel like a more apt comparison for Beckley might be Mickey Welch. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I bumped him up a notch, as I’m starting to recognize how unique a second baseman of his caliber is at this point in the game. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
4) Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
That’s no knock against Minnie, though. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
5) Hugh Duffy
The recent rash of top notch center fielders has led me to question whether Hugh actually belongs this high. But the career numbers still justify his merit to me. Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler.
6) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
7) Carl William Mays
I’m coming to believe that Carl is really one of the overlooked greats of the mound. I think if he’d had one huge season, he’d have easily gone in ahead of Lemon or Ferrell. In fact, I’m a little baffled by the love for Billy Pierce when Mays has equal or better numbers for his career, and with two fewer seasons.
8) William Ashley Freehan
Wow, I haven’t been this surprised by a player in I don’t know how long. Stands far apart from the crowd, with Bresnahan and Schang the best of the lingering backstops. Three times in the AL WS Top 10, and those 11 All-Star appearances clearly mark him as one of the pre-eminent catchers of his day.
9) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Looking at other infielders of the day, he’s very good. Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position.
10) Joseph Paul Torre
I’m not wild about his candidacy, but he definitely has solid numbers. To be honest, he kind of helps point out how strong a candidate Freehan really is, given his own shift from the backstop to the infield. We’re not judging him on his managerial career, but he took the early 80s Braves to the playoffs, which ought to help his case with the Cooperstown people.
11) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
12) José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
It remains very hard to get a handle on these guys. They both represent this bizarre mix of career and peak numbers, and my support for Mays makes me think they should be higher, but I just can’t figure out how good they really were. They will probably both get elected before I ever fully figure them out.
13) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
14) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
15) Edd J Roush
Very similar to Jimmy Wynn. I give Roush the slightest of edges for having a greater dominance in his ear. But the edge is very tiny, and given the higher quality of Wynn’s competition, it’s an issue I hope to review further.


<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Joseph Wheeler Sewell
I’m pretty sure that if I had to have a shortstop on my ballot, it would be Vern Stephens. Fortunately, I don’t have to have a shortstop on my ballot. These guys, along with Maranville and Aparicio, are very good. I just don’t think any of them is among the 15 best eligible for a vote. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
Ralph McPherran Kiner
I’ve really raised my opinion of Kiner, along with that of Chuck Klein. Still not enough to make the ballot, but certainly somewhere in the 16-25 range. The shortness of the career still holds me back. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
George Edward Waddell – “Rube”
Wow, he’s certainly made a comeback. I’ve always been wary of his tremendous peak and his reliance on strikeouts. Actually, he compares rather favorably to Billy Pierce, which may explain a lot.
   62. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 04, 2006 at 02:40 AM (#2166887)
Back from vacation with plenty of time to vote. Billy Williams and Bill Freehan make my PHOM, Dick Allen is now my top backlogger.

1984 ballot:

1. Joe Torre: Healthy win share and warp totals, an MVP, 4 STATS AS, I see 11 all-star-type seasons, 7 at catcher. The Braves thought enough of his glove to make him their primary catcher, enough of his bat to “rest” him at 1b and keep him in the lineup. Not being a full-time catcher is likely costing him points in some quarters, as it has Bresnahan. Unlike Bres, there are no playing time issues here. No penalties here, either. (PHOM 1983)

2. Brooks Robinson: No, the OPS+ isn’t impressive. The defense is. 23 years is. The in-season durability is: 15 years he played in 90+% of his team’s games and fell just short of that in 2 more. His team’s performance during his career is. He’s long been described as overrated. I think the pendulum’s swung the other way. (PHOM 1983)

3. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

4. Bill Freehan: The win shares, durability, no. of good seasons and defense made him my #1 catcher before Torre showed up. (eligible 1982, PHOM 1984)

5. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

7. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

9. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

10. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

11. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

12. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning without league quality issues. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

13. Ken Boyer: Second-best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)

14. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)

15. Orlando Cepeda: Edges Cash as a 1b candidate. Better peak, one more good season, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)


Required comment:
Jose Mendez: On the bubble -- the HOF election is an influence.
   63. Patrick W Posted: September 04, 2006 at 06:32 PM (#2167234)
Well you knew those early ballot submittals wouldn’t last too long (or even consecutive years!).

1. Brooks Robinson (2), Balt. (A), 3B (’58-’75) (1983) – As much as I like defense, a full review of Robinson makes Santo look so much better in my mind.
2. Joe Torre (3), St.L – Milw. (N), C / 1B (’61-’76) (1984) – Seems well above the borderline that I would have blindly assumed he fell. It’s very tight between Allen and Torre, only the slight catcher bonus puts Joe ahead of Richie’s significant edge at the bat.
--. Dick Allen, Phila. (N) – Chic. (A), 1B / 3B (’58-’75) (1984) – One of the lowest PA totals among the top 100 players in my current rankings (Cochrane, Jackie R barely). 0.325 EQA covers so many other blemishes.
3. Billy Pierce (5), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – Currently the 100th best player in my system.
4. Ken Boyer (6), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding-dominant infielders further down the ballot. And he was a good defender in his own right.
5. Jimmy Wynn (7), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
6. Dutch Leonard (8), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
7. Dizzy Trout (9), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
8. Norm Cash (10), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
9. Alejandro Oms (11), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
10. George Van Haltren (12), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
11. Ben Taylor (13), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – I am comfortable being Ben’s 2nd-3rd biggest fan.
12. Bob Johnson (14), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
13. Minnie Minoso (15), Chic. (A), LF (’49-’63) – Numbers say he’s on the happy side of the in/out line of the HOM right now (i.e. one of the top 200+ players of all time), but I see him as a victim of the timeline to ensure earlier eras were properly represented. Having said that, he is 4th on the backlog for P-Hall entry, so I could be wrong…
14. Dom DiMaggio (--), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) (1978) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
15. Luis Aparicio (--), Chic. – Balt. (A), SS (’56-’73) – Luis causes a re-evaluation of the infielders. They are slotted correctly here amongst each other, but not yet among the pitchers and outfielders. All these guys could slot between spots 8-30 at the drop of a hat.

Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Bill Freehan – Best catcher available – depending on how you label Torre – does not automatically get you on the ballot.
Joe Sewell – Elect 2 last year, 3 rookies worthy this year, someone has to fall off
Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 27 votes and Chuck Klein with 2 before I explain why he is off-ballot.
Rube Waddell – Almost exactly the same value as Dizzy Dean (6 votes) except Dean accomplished it in 400 fewer IP. I believe his last appearance on the ballot was 1946.

In 1984, I hoped to be up to four players from last year’s top ten in my top 15. Minoso made it, but beat out Pierce to do so. No new blood this year, so I should be back to 2 players in ’85. Then we’ll all have a good laugh at my consensus score. (“Remember back in ’83 when Patrick had the median score?” “Yeah, those were the days. How did he drop to last only two years later?”)
   64. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: September 04, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2167254)
I completed my long-awaited move to San Francisco yesterday and start my new job in a couple of hours, so please forgive the relatively brief ballot.

1984 Hall of Merit Ballot

1. Charlie Keller

Clearly the best player on the ballot. His peak is unquestionably the strongest available and he has plenty of career value. With credit for WWII and his last year in AAA, Keller has 300 non-season-adjusted Win Shares.

2. Jimmy Wynn
3. Bill Freehan
4. Joe Torre

Wynn has a surprisingly strong peak. Freehan rates over Torre due to defense. Also the Win Shares AL MVP for 1968 (even over 31-6 Denny McLain!) with one of the great seasons for a catcher. Torre gets bumped up because I underrated his time at catcher.

5. Jose Mendez
6. Dobie Moore
7. Quincy Trouppe

The Negro Leaguers. They'd be solidly in the bottom third of the HOM and maintain their usual place on my ballot.

8. Brooks Robinson

Probably the lowest peak of anyone that I've placed this highly on my ballot. Still, he'll be a deserving inductee this week.

9. Rube Waddell
10. Dick Redding

Waddell is still a strong candidate with that eye-popping ERA+. Redding is now locked into the 9-12 range.

11. Nellie Fox
12. Minnie Minoso
13. Alejandro Oms
14. Billy Pierce
15. Tommy Leach

11-15 are all players who were very good for a long time. I can't really see much movement from these guys, barring drastic new evidence.

Consensus Top Ten Returnees
Joe Sewell - Top 50. Low peak. Last good season came at 32.
Ralph Kiner - Top 25. Four outstanding seasons not enough.
Cupid Childs - Top 50. Closer to 25th than 50th. Shortish career. Positional dominance over contemporaries not an important factor in evaluation.
   65. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: September 04, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2167257)
I completed my long-awaited move to San Francisco yesterday and start my new job in a couple of hours, so please forgive the relatively brief ballot.

1984 Hall of Merit Ballot

1. Charlie Keller

Clearly the best player on the ballot. His peak is unquestionably the strongest available and he has plenty of career value. With credit for WWII and his last year in AAA, Keller has 300 non-season-adjusted Win Shares.

2. Jimmy Wynn
3. Bill Freehan
4. Joe Torre

Wynn has a surprisingly strong peak. Freehan rates over Torre due to defense. Also the Win Shares AL MVP for 1968 (even over 31-6 Denny McLain!) with one of the great seasons for a catcher. Torre gets bumped up because I underrated his time at catcher.

5. Jose Mendez
6. Dobie Moore
7. Quincy Trouppe

The Negro Leaguers. They'd be solidly in the bottom third of the HOM and maintain their usual place on my ballot.

8. Brooks Robinson

Probably the lowest peak of anyone that I've placed this highly on my ballot. Still, he'll be a deserving inductee this week.

9. Rube Waddell
10. Dick Redding

Waddell is still a strong candidate with that eye-popping ERA+. Redding is now locked into the 9-12 range.

11. Nellie Fox
12. Minnie Minoso
13. Alejandro Oms
14. Billy Pierce
15. Tommy Leach

11-15 are all players who were very good for a long time. I can't really see much movement from these guys, barring drastic new evidence.

Consensus Top Ten Returnees
Joe Sewell - Top 50. Low peak. Last good season came at 32.
Ralph Kiner - Top 25. Four outstanding seasons not enough.
Cupid Childs - Top 50. Closer to 25th than 50th. Shortish career. Positional dominance over contemporaries not an important factor in evaluation.
   66. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: September 04, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#2167258)
Vote early and vote often!

Hmmm...Mayor Daley visited Mayor Newsom a couple of weeks ago...

...guess I'm just trying to get into the San Francisco swing of things.
   67. Howie Menckel Posted: September 04, 2006 at 07:23 PM (#2167277)
Best to worst OPS+s, actual MLB play as a regular
RKiner 184 84 73 66 56 46 40 32 21 17 16
Keller 168 63 62 59 44 41

Kiner cleared 600 PA in 8 of 10 tries, Keller in 5 of 6, so that's not really an issue.

Now, from HERE we need to consider the 'extra credit.'
Kiner's 184s were in his age 26 and 28 seasons; he had a 156 at age 27.
Keller had a 168 at age 26 and a 159 at age 29; he's missing age 27 and had a 180 in 194 PA in 1945.
I'll give Keller a 160 and a 150 - ask Kiner how hard it is to stay above 160 every year.
That makes it:
RKiner 184 84 73 66 56 46 40 32 21 17 16
Keller 168 63 62 60 59 50 44 41

Throw in a 130 for Keller on minor-league credit, and he holds up nicely with Kiner beyond the top 3 seasons. But by OPS+, Kiner's still better at peak.
Keller was very promising, and it's a shame what happened. He may make my ballot someday, and he's probbaly underrated overall.
But I gotta call out:
"1. Charlie Keller - Clearly the best player on the ballot. His peak is unquestionably the strongest available and he has plenty of career value."

I seem to be in a feisty mood this week, lol
   68. Ken Fischer Posted: September 04, 2006 at 09:04 PM (#2167331)
1984 Ballot

Ron Fairly & Jim Fregosi were favorites of mine. I grew up in the OC in the 60s and 70s. I was disappointed when the Angels traded Fregosi…but they got the better end of the deal…duh. I was also sad to see Ron retire after only a season with the Halos. But I couldn’t pull the trigger by putting either of them on the ballot.

1- Brooks Robinson 356 WS
To me Brooks is a no-brainer when you look at the rest of the ballot. He had a MVP year, longevity and great post-seasons. His fielding puts him over the top on this ballot.

2-Dick Redding
Redding’s stock has been dropping with the influx of strong candidates in recent years. He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days. I will stick with him.

3-Jose Mendez
Redding just edges Mendez.

4-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Would’ve easily been over 300 if his Negro League years were in majors. 189 Grey Ink is impressive in any era.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Van appears to be losing support! Like Redding, Van had a run where it looked like he would make the HOM. It’s now doubtful.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
Continue to hold out hope for the 300-game winner. How can we forget that 1885 season!

7-Joe Torre 315 WS
Won a Gold Glove as a Catcher in mid-60s…some say that was a flux. MVP and .817 OPS in a pitcher’s era. His hitting numbers stack up well to many HOMers.

8-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Ken Boyer 279 WS

12-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

13-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

14-Edd Roush 314 WS

15-Joe Sewell 277 WS
I still think Stephens was better. But Sewell did a better job of avoiding strikeouts than just about anyone in the history of baseball.


Comments…I continue to re-evaluate my ballot. Kiner is still in my top 25. Pierce and Waddell a little farther back. I plan on taking a harder look at Freehan and Pierce before the next ballot.
   69. Esteban Rivera Posted: September 04, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#2167335)
1984 Ballot:

1. Brooks Robinson – Career consistency is similar to Williams’ but with less hitting, more defense and a more demanding position.

2. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

3. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

4. Jose Mendez – Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

5. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

6. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

7. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Marichal makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

8. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

9. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

10. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

11. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

12. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

13. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

14. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

15. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

16. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

17. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

18. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

19. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

20. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Joe Sewell – Close to making my top 20. See Moore as better.

Bill Freehan and Joe Torre – Somewhere in the 25-30 range with Freehan being higher.
   70. EricC Posted: September 04, 2006 at 09:53 PM (#2167365)
1984 ballot. This weak year will probably not be good for my consensus score.

1. Wally Schang
2. Bill Freehan
3. Joe Torre All position players in my system have their stats adjusted to partially compensate for the relative amount of typical playing time; catcher is the only position where it has a big effect in general, leading to a catcher trifecta at the top this year. Freehan and Torre end up very similar for players who are almost exact contemporaries. I see Schang as a similar type, who played in a time when catchers typically caught less per season.
4. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL; very consistent prime.
5. Orlando Cepeda - Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the bottom-half-of-the-HoM bats. I feel that Cepeda in particular has been underrated- especially when 50s-60s NL strength is taken into account.
6. Norm Cash -
7. Jose Mendez - Reputation and statistical evidence that he had a HoM-worthy peak. I see similarities to Lefty Gomez, with the patches of brilliance.
8. Dutch Leonard (Emil)- Slight tweaking of my system this year causes the jump for Leonard. Combination of innings pitched for the era, very good ERA+, and effective relief pitching.
9. Charlie Keller - My guesstimate is that his monster peak would have been sustained during the war years, making him a viable "peak" candidate a la Jennings.
10. Frank Howard -
11. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers, behind Blyleven The factoid does overstate his greatness a little, because he pitched in a high run-scoring time, but his rate stats show that he was still great in the second half of his career, despite the low IP/season.
12. Gil Hodges - The best or among the best 1B throughout his prime in the strong 50s NL.
13. Sol White - Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to ever know if this rating is accurate, but the sketchy record available show a full career, most of it at 2B, but also several years at SS, with a high batting average.
14. Bob Friend - In a system where IP, ERA+, and league pitching strength all play a part, the IP and league stength are what get Friend on the ballot. Admittedly a case where the W/L record is so poor that it could be a red flag- seems to have a low W% for his ERA+ even when quality of his teams is taken into account.
15. Jimmy Wynn. Offensive stats hurt by era and park; still, given raw numbers, hard to believe that he can end up so high- 10th best CF in the NBJHBA.

Kiner, B. Robinson, Minoso and Waddell are all very good players within shouting distance of my ballot. If I am right about Robinson, it is because he lacked a high peak and played much of his career in a "watered-down" league. If I am wrong, it is probably because I've underestimated his defense.
   71. sunnyday2 Posted: September 04, 2006 at 10:24 PM (#2167378)
Howie, you're a good man.
   72. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: September 04, 2006 at 10:31 PM (#2167391)
1. Ralph Kiner: Seven consecutive HR totals. That's pretty darn nifty. If he was a statue with a glove (which he was not), that's still good enough for number 1 in my backlog.
2. Joe Torre: As a catcher, an easy number 1. As a third baseman, number one with some qualms. As a first baseman, somewhere in the teens. As a hybrid, he's here.
3. Jose Mendez: Best pitcher on the ballot by a wide margin.
4. Bill Freehan: Awesome defensive catcher. Pretty good with the stick.
5. Dobie Moore: I'm now convinced he belongs here. Giving him credit for his time with the Army team. I think he belongs above Sewell now.
6. Brooks Robinson: Tough to get a handle on him and Sewell's value. Brooks was a good glove/lite bat guy, with no discernible peak. Normally the lack of peak would move him way down the ballot, but his glove is this good.
7. Joe Sewell: Never struck out. Solid offensive SS, in an age when that wasn't the norm. After re-eavluating Dobie, Joe needs to go here.
8. Hugh Duffy: 16.72 RC/27 in his best season. That's freakin awesome. Good glove, made his teams better. I like him a lot.
9. Ken Boyer: Brooks Robinson-lite, but with a peak.
10. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak for a pitcher of his day.
11. Rube Waddell: Awesome peak, good/great prime.
12. Minne Minoso: Gets downgraded this week as a result of my re-evaluation of:
13. Alejandro Oms: Re-eval puts him here. I was missing a lot on him for a long time.
14. Charlie Keller: Poor man's Kiner. Close to Kiner with war credit, but not quite there, and definitely wouldn't have 7 HR titles.
15. Cupid Childs: A forgotten gem from the 19th century


16. GVH: Strictly career. A peak of any kind and he's above Duffy.
17. Pete Browning: Difference between him and GVH is negligible.
18. Ben Taylor: Beckley with a better glove.
19. Norm Cash: Poor man's Keller.
20. Frank Howard: Underrated offensively. Not so much glove. If he stayed healthy, could have been a great.
21 - 30: Chuck Klein, Jake Beckley, Dick Redding, Addie Joss, Nellie Fox, Charley Jones, Dizzy Dean, Gavvy Cravath, Roger Bresnahan, Quincy Trouppe.
   73. Chris Cobb Posted: September 04, 2006 at 10:55 PM (#2167406)
1984 Ballot

My #1 and #2 were elected in 1983. With no top candidates becoming eligible this year, everybody moves up! It’s now a glove-heavy ballot indeed.

1. Brooks Robinson (n/e). Overrated, but still very worthy. He was a good hitter during his prime, and he was one of the greatest defensive third basemen of the post-WWII era.
2. Rabbit Maranville (4). An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
3. Joe Torre (n/e). A unique positional career. His usage when his primary position was catcher harked back to the 1890s, when it was not uncommon for a catcher to play other positions when not behind the plate. It seemed to work. At the corners, his defense was a lot like Harmon Killebrew’s (in fact, win shares sees their fielding ws rate at third base as exactly the same, 2.12 ws/1000 innings, a D by the letter grade system), but his ability to play catcher puts him significantly ahead of Killer as a fielder (though he’s well behind Killebrew with the bat). Another modern Coop omission whom we should elect handily.
4. Bill Freehan (6). The best catcher of the 1960s, very strong offensively and defensively. Who knew? Actually more underrated than Ron Santo, who is a well-known cause in sabermetric circles. I am unaware of any serious attention to Freehan’s case for the Hall of Fame. An excellent opportunity for the HoM to give credit where it is due.
5. Jose Mendez (5). Pretty much holding steady with the best pitching peak among eligibles. Now that he’s at the top of the backlog, the electorate should review his case carefully while we elect shoo-ins in 1982-84.
6. Jimmy Wynn (n/e). The last of three HoF oversights to reach the ballot this year. Wynn is unusual among modern candidates in that his case is more of a peak case than a career one. He had a great peak in a tough league, but he declined early. I imagine we will have much to discuss concerning his case, although his discussion thread has been oddly side-tracked into softball . . .
7. Dave Bancroft (8). Top beneficiary of my reexamination of WARP and fielding value. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
8. Charlie Keller (9). Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
9. Minnie Minoso (10). As with Keller, WARP and win shares agree that, with appropriate MLE credit, he is the best remaining candidate from the 1950s.
10. Joe Sewell (11) Very strong prime with very good defense at shortstop and very good offense.
11. Billy Pierce (10). Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is gaining momentum: we should definitely elect him.
12. Dick Redding (7). Slips behind Maranville and now Mendez among 1910s & early 20s stars. I’d happily elect him, but I see him as slightly less brilliant than the three above. Recently published data has raised questions about his career value. A brief review of the data pushes me to rate Redding a bit lower, but he’s still on my ballot. I hope to do a thorough review of it by the 1985 election . . .
13. Herman Long (11). As in Maranville’s case, I think Long’s long career of defensive excellence is being significantly underrated by the electorate.
14. Jake Beckley (14). Back onto the ballot as the glut at the top thins out.
15. Tommy Leach. (15). See above.

The next seventeen
16. Ralph Kiner (16).
17. Rube Waddell (15).
18. Charley Jones
19. Alejandro Oms
20. Edd Roush
21. Bus Clarkson – Preliminary reconsideration moves him to the top of the off-ballot infielder crowd, ahead of Boyer, Fox, and Childs. Could move up farther next year. I need to study Dr. Chaleeko’s projections of playing time a bit more closely, and decide how Clarkson ranks in comparison to Kiner and Keller among 1940s candidates. I wish we knew more about his defense!
22. Norm Cash
23. Gavvy Cravath
24. Ken Boyer
25. Nellie Fox
26. Cupid Childs
27. Bucky Walters
28. Ben Taylor
29. Urban Shocker
30. Burleigh Grimes

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

R Kiner. Pushed off by tough competition. Will be back on my ballot in a few years.
R Waddell. Like Kiner, a casualty of the 1982-83 talentfest. Will be back on my ballot when the new arrivals clear out.
C Childs. I think we should elect 1-2 more players from the 1890s. I prefer Long and Beckley for those slots, but Childs is definitely next in line, and he wouldn’t be a bad choice.
H Duffy. He would be a bad choice. Overrated by win shares because of Pythagorean good fortune, overrated by black/gray ink because he played in a great hitters’ park, he simply wasn’t one of the top outfielders of his generation. We’ve elected six of his contemporaries – Delahanty, Hamilton, Burkett, Kelley, Keeler, and Thompson – and the next two outfielders in line (if we must have more 1890s outfielders) should be Jimmy Ryan and George Van Haltren.
   74. OCF Posted: September 04, 2006 at 11:52 PM (#2167508)
46 ballots so far. Recent voters who haven't cast ballots yet:
Andrew M.
Ardo
B. Williams doubled ...
David Foss
Devin McCullen
fra paolo
Joe Dimino
KJOK
mulder & scully
Vaux

Average consensus score is running between -9 and -10, which is lower than it's been since 1976.
   75. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 04, 2006 at 11:57 PM (#2167518)
46 ballots so far. Recent voters who haven't cast ballots yet:
Andrew M.
Ardo
B. Williams doubled ...
David Foss
Devin McCullen
fra paolo
Joe Dimino
KJOK
mulder & scully
Vaux


Still have a day left until the election is over, so most of them should have posted by then.
   76. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 05, 2006 at 04:15 AM (#2167888)
Not a lot of exciting new stuff this year. I orginally had Fregosi higher (although not on ballot), until I took another look at how much of his uber-stat total came from his long hang-around years. The focus on Newcombe/Easter/Williams did move them up my lists, but not enough to make my ballot. Allen and Robinson make my PHoM.

1. Joe Torre (2) If he was just a C or 3B, he’d be easily in. And his OPS+ isn’t induction-worthy for a 1B, but it isn’t so far off that you can dismiss him. Fielding isn’t good, but at C, enough to get by counts for a lot. Made my PHoM last year.
(1A Dick Allen)

2. Jose Mendez (4) I don’t think I’m just following the crowd by moving him past Redding. Now I think the ceiling on what Mendez might have been is higher, and the Negro League scholars did pick him as well. The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. Made my PHoM in 1975.

3. Minnie Minoso (5) The more I look at him, the more I like him ahead of the other OF candidates. Gets a bit of an era boost from me – even though the AL was the weaker league, the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Also, the spread between the leagues took some time to develop. Made my PHoM in 1971.

4. Brooks Robinson (6) A very strong career argument, somewhat of a peak, but his record has a Beckleyish tinge to it that I’m not totally crazy about. Makes my PHoM this year.

5. Bill Freehan (8) I really like him, and am more worried about having him too low than too high (but I'm also not a huge fan of the backlog). He wasn't quite the overall force the other catcher candidates were, but he made up for much of that with his defense.

6. Dick Redding (9) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in.. Made my PHoM in 1973.

7. Joe Sewell (7) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. Comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. He's not responsible for the rest of the ML shortstops in the 20s being sucky. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Bill Monroe (10) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Slid back a bit because I re-evaluated how speculative his case is, although I still think he’s worthy. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. Jimmy Wynn (11) Hey, at least there was some discussion of him on his thread this year, although it didn't really clear anything up for me. His numbers look good, but there's enough uncertainty around them that I'm not certain just yet that I can pull the trigger. I do have him ahead of GVH, though.

10. Rube Waddell (13) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing. But his era is pretty well-represented for pitchers. I'm not totally convinced he's the best available white pitcher, but everyone else has issues too. There's a lot of similarities between his record and Pierce's, except for the ERA+.

11. Dobie Moore (12) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

12. George Van Haltren (15) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

13. Quincy Trouppe (16) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

14. Tommy Leach (14) Best Friend no more. Drops because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

15. Gavvy Cravath (17) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him (I do need to redo my attempted WS-to-WARP translation with the latest system).

16. Billy Pierce (20) There really isn’t much separating him from Marichal when you look at the totality of his career, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive. Did have his best years in the early 50s, when the NL advantage was not so great.
17. Cupid Childs (18) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.
18. Jake Beckley. (19) I still think his typical season was pretty weak, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Moved past Medwick/Johnson because I really do think the 30s are overrepresented.
19. Bus Clarkson (22) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
(19A Joe Medwick)
20. Bob Johnson (21) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.
(20A Clark Griffith, 20B Biz Mackey)
21. Norm Cash (23) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism).
22. Charlie Keller (24) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
23. Alejandro Oms (25) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
24. Phil Rizzuto (27) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
(24A Cool Papa Bell, 24B Max Carey)
25. Ken Boyer (26) I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question. But Joe does have a point about better-hitting 3Bmen in the 1960s, so I slipped him behind Clarkson.
(25A Sam Thompson, 25B Richie Ashburn, 25C Rube Foster)
26. Nellie Fox (30) Just can't have him on the same level as Gordon or Childs. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
27. Bucky Walters (32) The wartime penalty holds him back, but he does have a strong candidacy.
28. Ben Taylor (29) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
29. Orlando Cepeda (28) You know, his production actually looks pretty similar to Boog Powell's (who's #98 at the moment), albeit lasting a little longer and in the tougher league. That's not really a strong argument to me.
30. Vern Stephens (34) He's close to Rizzuto, but after you account for the war, I don't see any way to have him in front.

31. Ralph Kiner (33) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
32. Bob Elliott
(32A George Sisler, 32B Hughie Jennings)
33. Edd Roush
34. Elston Howard
35. Burleigh Grimes.
36. Charley Jones
37. Pie Traynor
38. Don Newcombe
39. Frank Howard
40. Tony Lazzeri
   77. Ardo Posted: September 05, 2006 at 05:23 AM (#2167911)
Primates, may I post this? It's up to you to make a ruling, but I'm starting teacher certification classes this week & am pressed time-wise.

1984 Ballot

The year of my birth; also, the year of the Detroit Tigers' last World Series victory to date. My top 15 happen to be glove-thick and bat-thin:

1. Mendez - convinced he was a dominant pitcher for a 6-7 year span.
2. Freehan - good offensive C, great defensive C.
3. Pierce - many excellent RA+ years, plus leverage credit.
4. Torre - tweener who hit well at three positions.
5. Ch. Jones - only glaring 19th Cent. omission - the Dick Allen of his era.
6. Schang - durability was excellent for his era, unfair to compare him head-on to Lombardi/Freehan.
7. Br. Robinson - not enough strong hitting years for me.
8. Cash - One Big Year, excellent defense, 139 OPS+.
9. Trouppe - a similar type player to Torre.
10. Sewell - Best SS available, far superior to Moore.
11. Boyer - Strong eight-year prime, but little else.
12. Fox - Great defense, just enough punch.
13. Minoso - Vaults up vs. the other players in his (immediate post-integration era) cohort.
14. Redding - Can't decide if he's Vic Willis or a bit better than that.
15. Maranville - loads and loads of career value.

16-20: Roush, Kiner, Wynn, Cepeda, Beckley.
21-25: E. Howard, Luque, Browning, Waddell, Bresnahan.

Fregosi, the best of the 1984 eligibles, is about #35.
   78. fra paolo Posted: September 05, 2006 at 08:24 AM (#2167930)
I'm posting my ballot before leaving for work, but I've left the required disclosures on the discussion thread.

1 Ralph Kiner His career was short, but for half of it he was comparable to an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Seven home run titles is the third-highest total in MLB history, too.
2 Rube Waddell Another short career, superb peak fellow.
3 Cupid Childs Between 1890 and 1897 he accumalated 214 Adjusted Batting Runs and 72 Fielding Runs, which is more batting runs and as many fielding runs as Brooks Robinson did from 1960 to 1972.
4 Jimmy Wynn In terms of Batting Runs + Fielding Runs he's the most impactful of the CFers I've rated.
5 Ken Boyer Boyer is an excellent third baseman in an 11-year prime, almost as good with the glove as Brooks, and better with the bat.
6 Alejandro Oms I find my rightfield candidates rank closely together, but Oms has got the longest prime, in a field where prime seems to be in short supply.
7 Orlando Cepeda By virtue of height of prime, he's first at first at the moment.
8 Billy Pierce I've started measuring pitchers' consistency of performance, and he's a lot better than Walters, even though he lacks Walters' great peak.
9 Minnie Minoso Adds 3 wins a year during his prime, with solid peak seasons in 1952, 1954 and 1956.
10 Phil Rizzuto See the Fregosi thread, but I'm still reassessing shortstops.
11 Elston Howard He adds more value in his prime than Freehan or Torre.
12 Tony Oliva I'm convinced Oliva is underrated, with his 8 prime years almost as good as Minoso's.
13 Charley Jones A dominant bat in his era, given a boost because of his missing years owing to a salary dispute.
14 Edd Roush When he retired he was the 2d-best centrefielder in National League history. Overshadowed by his AL counterparts.
15 Brooks Robinson Gets points for being good for a long time, but really he's the archetypal career candidate, lacking a high peak.
   79. yest Posted: September 05, 2006 at 08:38 AM (#2167932)
04:24 AM
I'm posting my ballot before leaving for work, but I've left the required disclosures on the discussion thread.


where do you work?
   80. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2006 at 11:17 AM (#2167937)
Primates, may I post this? It's up to you to make a ruling, but I'm starting teacher certification classes this week & am pressed time-wise.

Since the election doesn't end until 8 PM EST today because of the Labor Day holiday, sure. Why not? ;-)
   81. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2006 at 11:27 AM (#2167941)
49 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: David Foss, mulder and scully, Andrew M, KJOK, the Commish, Vaux, and B. Williams doubled to catcher.
   82. fra paolo Posted: September 05, 2006 at 01:04 PM (#2167968)
04:24 AM

Add five hours for British summer time and it becomes 9:24 AM for a 10 AM start in a building on the bank of the Thames near Blackfriars Bridge. I can see the Oxo Tower out my nearest window, for those who know London well.
   83. DavidFoss Posted: September 05, 2006 at 03:02 PM (#2168056)
Wow. I've turned into one of those late late voters. I'll have to do something about that next week. No new candidates this week.

1984 Ballot

1. Brooks Robinson (1) -- I like peak, but there is simply too much career here. He's got a nice 14 year prime mixed in there. Great glove. League quality issues would drop him against stronger competition, but that is not this year. (and I'm not even a big Brooksie fan)
2. Larry Doyle 2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
3. John McGraw (3) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
4. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
5. Ralph Kiner (5) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
6. Gavvy Cravath (7) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
7. Charley Jones (8) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
8. Billy Pierce (9) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA.
9. Joe Torre (11) -- Positional mix makes him quite hard to rate. I have to rate him ahead of Bresnahan. He could certainly go higher.
10. Dick Redding (12) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
11. Roger Bresnahan (13) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
12. Bob Elliott (15) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
13. Joe Sewell (14) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
14. Charlie Keller (nr) -- Incredible hitter for several years. Career shortened by minors on the front end, injuries on the back end and war in the middle. Very difficult guy to judge. Certainly HOM-level, but will he get enough time-credit to get inducted?
15. Al Rosen (nr) -- Another top-level player, but for short enough to keep him out of the HOM so far.
16-20. Browning, BJohnson, Freehan, Chance, Lombardi,
21-25. Fox, Beckley, Welch, Trouppe, DMoore,
26-30. Roush, Minoso, FHoward, Waddell, Mendez,
31-35. Cash, Leach, JWynn, KBoyer, Cepeda,
36-37. Newcombe, TBridges
   84. DavidFoss Posted: September 05, 2006 at 06:05 PM (#2168242)
bump (too keep page on hot topics)
   85. Andrew M Posted: September 05, 2006 at 06:12 PM (#2168252)
1984 Ballot

1. (1) Brooks Robinson. Everyone knows about his fielding. His offensive numbers suffer because he’s got about 1500 plate appearances at the beginning and end of his career where he didn’t hit. But he’s got 5 seasons where he was putting up an OPS+ of 120 or better and another 5 where he’s above league average. Plus he was regularly playing 150+ games. He may be overrated, but he’s got to be above the in/out line for his position.

2. (2) Dobie Moore. He was a great player for more than a Jennings-esque 5 years and high peak SS’s are hard to find. I have no problem thinking his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s. I also have no problem thinking he was a better player that Joe Sewell, but I recognize that’s a personal preference.

3. (3) Nellie Fox. Durable (never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ not impressive, perhaps, but it’s OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career. Similar credentials to Brooks Robinson, but slightly more peak and less career, I suppose.

4. (4) Edd Roush. He’s hard to get a handle on. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc.—and it isn’t readily apparent that Roush was better than some of the other OFs with around 8000 career plate appearances, e.g. Burns, Veach, Cuyler, Manush, Bob Johnson, Minoso. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF seems slightly higher than those other OFs, and his career was significantly longer than the OFs with higher peaks (e.g. Kiner, Keller). In other words, Roush balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other eligible candidates.

5. (6) Larry Doyle. Questionable defensive reputation, very good offensive player. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years.

6. (7) Joe Torre. A valuable offensive player, but it’s the 1400 games at C and 3B that get him here. He makes me worry that I have unjustly overlooked Roger Bresnahan, his career was a quite a bit longer than the Duke of Tralee’s.

7. (8) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale or Marichal. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade.

8. (9) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him higher, but I like him more than I like the three 1890s OFs.

9. (10) Dick Redding. I think his closest comp may be Juan Marichal. By reputation would seem to belong in the HoM, though the projections in his thread always seemed not to support that reputation.

10. (11) Rube Waddell. Deserves respect for top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even accounting for innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.

11. (12) Geo. Van Haltren. Never an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

12. (13) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

13. (14) Ralph Kiner. I don’t really like this type of player, but he does seem like the best of this type--and 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

14. (15) Bill Freehan. Excellent defense. Good hitter during his peak seasons.

15. (new) Minnie Minoso. Spent the 1950s in the top 10 in pretty much every offensive category in the AL. Gets some NeL credit.

Next 10
George Burns
Jose Mendez
Bucky Walters
Quincy Trouppe
Charlie Keller
Phil Rizzuto
Vern Stephens
Alejandro Oms
Tommie Leach
Jimmy Ryan

Required disclosures:
Jose Mendez, Joe Sewell.
Mendez is just off my ballot. Unless I could re-kindle my long lost love for Herman Long, Sewell would probably be the next SS on my list--which I suppose would make him #30-35 or so.
   86. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 05, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2168384)
Better late than never!

1. Joe Torre C/3B/1B (1) - A great hitter for a catcher. An MVP season at 3B. One of the most underrated players in the history of baseball.

2. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

3. Brooks Robinson 3B (5) - Overrated by history, but a great player nonetheless.

4. Joe Sewell SS (4) - With my revised rankings, he's smack dab in the middle of the pack among HoM SS's. I'm glad he didn't get rushed in, but now I've come full circle and think he's waited too long.

5. Jack Quinn SP (6) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a huge leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26.

6. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

7. Billy Pierce SP (8) - What's not to like? He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. He took a bit of a dip with my league adjustments (AL much worse than NL during his tenure). But I still think he's worthy.

8. Charley Jones LF (9) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

9. Jake Beckley 1B (10) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

10. Bill Freehan C (11) - Freehan was a heckuva player. I see Schang as the better hitter, but Freehan was much better with the leather and had a higher peak. They are extremely close, but I lean towards Freehan right now.

11. Tommy Bridges SP (13) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

12. Wally Schang C (15) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense questionable, only thing keeping him from the #7 spot on this ballot.

13. Cupid Childs 2B (16) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.

14. Jimmy Wynn CF (17) - I thought I'd have him higher. Man this ballot is jammed with great players.

15. Dave Bancroft SS (18) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

Honorable Mention:

16. Burleigh Grimes SP (19) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.

17. Phil Rizzuto (20T) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

18. Minnie Minoso (--) - I was underrating his pre MLB play.

19. Norm Cash 1B (12) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example. This is a conservative ranking. I will be VERY disappointed if he isn't eventually elected.

20. Cecil Travis (20T) - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

21. Ralph Kiner (--) - I dropped him a fair amount in 1981 - He's quite similar to Charley Jones, but Jones was a plus fielder, Kiner a minus. That makes all the difference in the competition this tight. He's not that far behind though.

22. Charlie Keller (--) - I've been convinced he's closer to Charley Jones than Ross Youngs.

23. Bob Johnson (--) - Overlooked star, not much difference between Johnson and Medwick.

24. Rube Waddell (--) - Moves up again 1984. I've got him even with Mordecai Brown now. I feel Waddell should be a HoMer - he should have been elected instead of McGinnity and Griffith way back when. He was better than Bob Lemon - who ranks with Griffith and McGinnity as our 3 big mistakes, in my opinion. But compared to the pitchers on this ballot, I can't rank him higher. Peak-wise he's arguably the 2nd best pitcher on the ballot, behind only Dean, with Cicotte and Rucker very close, depending on how you define peak. I can't vote for him right now, but I hope we elect him.

25. José Méndez (--) - I'm moving him up a little this week, I went back and looked him over again and I was underrating him.

Fregosi - in a pack with guys like Vern Stephens, not too far below these guys.
   87. mulder & scully Posted: September 05, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2168416)
Used to be Kelly in SD

1984 Ballot:

<u>To recap my balloting</u>:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.
I am in the process of reranking some players and looking again at middle infielders and the integration-era NeLers who did not make it.

1. Mickey Welch: The weight of the evidence. His comparables are almost all HoMers. He has a winning record in his career against John Clarkson, Pud Galvin, and Hoss Radbourn. He won 60% of his decisions against HoMer pitchers.

2. Charley Jones: The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1980, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.

3. Pete Browning: Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not.

4. Charlie Keller: MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1984. Much better than Billy Williams.

5. Hugh Duffy: A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. I need to post that to the Duffy thread soon. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not.

6. Quincy Troupe: A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 11th best catcher of all time as of 1984.

7. Jose Mendez: From 1910 to 1914, only Johnson and Alexander were better. A gigantic peak.

8. Bucky Walters: Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers.

9. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close. 11th all-time among second basemen.

10. Bill Freehan: Best catcher in AL 6 times. Best in majors 3 times. 5 times in the top 10 position players in the AL. 5 win shares gold gloves. He hit with power, he walked, he was a great defensive player. What’s not to like.

11. Tommy Leach: Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).

12. Brooks Robinson: Amazing fielder. Made too many outs as a hitter. I believe a big reason for his reputation, given the fielding, is the dearth of third base talent in the American League at the turn of the decade. Ranks as the 12th best third baseman so far eligible (behind Schmidt and maybe Brett if he can shake the injury bug...)

13. Gavy Cravath: Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares.

14. Vic Willis: Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League.

15. Dobie Moore: Banks before Banks. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1984 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers.
   88. mulder & scully Posted: September 05, 2006 at 09:47 PM (#2168420)
16. Jimmy Wynn: 5 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors. Best centerfielder eligible from Mays until ... Dale Murphy? Five years after Griffey, Jr. retires?
17. Alejandro Ohms: Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.
18. George Burns: Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.
19. Ralph Kiner: Just a hair behind Burns for best LF on my board.
20. Orestes Minoso: Did not place quite as high in his league as Burns and Kiner did.
21. Chance: Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig.
22: Norm Cash: somewhere in here. Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Even with the missed games.
23. Joe Torre: 3/rd 4th best catcher candidate with Bresnahan behind Freehan and Troupe. Slots in lower twenties behind the left field glut after a slight catcher bonus. If he was a full time catcher his whole career he would be in, but he wasn’t.
24. Redding: Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years.
25. Grimes: Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
26. Cooper, Wilbur: He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
27. Roush: PHOM for years.
28. Bresnahan: I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era.
29. Doyle: Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired.
30. Frank Howard: Just slightly below the left field knot 18-21.
31. Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.
32. Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder.
33. Don Newcombe: Credit for minor league years, NeL years, and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great.
34. Rosen: What if...
35. Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense.
36. Van Haltren: Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
37. Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there.
38. Cepeda: A little behind Cash. Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
39. Pierce: Great rates, but like many in the AL 1950s, lacks big innings pitched. While a managerial decision over which he had no control, it does prevent him from racking up a lot of value. Ranks 7th in his decade.
40. Waddell: Does not have as many big years as the other great pitchers of his era. Lacks the innings pitched totals that other HoM pitchers of his era had. No credit for minor league time because he jumped his teams. He went to the minors on his own.
41. Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
42. Schang: I see the arguments
43. Stivetts: 4th best pitcher in the 1890s. Trouble was he pitched right as the distance changed and he was worked to death to start his career.
44. Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
45. Fournier: Remember to give him credit for the White Sox screwing up.
46. Maglie: Credit for Mexican League helps
47. Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding.
48. Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw
49. Scales: Pretty good player. Will probably move up after I adjust for Hall of Fame’s new numbers.
50. Hippo Vaughn: Excellent peak, but not enough career in the majors.
51 McGraw: Just not healthy enough.
52. Sewell: A good player, but just a little short. The best shortstops were all in the NeL during his career. Lloyd, Wells, Moore.
53. Lon Warneke: A good peak, but not as high as Dean and his career is not long enough.
54. Berger: Not enough prime years for me.
55. Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.
56. Elliott: I need to review his candidacy
57. Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
58. Jones, F: Excellent defender. Stats are hard to difficult to understand because fo the context:
59/60. Denny Lyons / Ed Williamson: Two excellent third basemen of a bygone era.
   89. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 05, 2006 at 10:16 PM (#2168444)
1984 Ballot
And thank you, John, for reminding me! I was planning to get it in before the deadline, but I appreciate it. First week of the semester and all that.

So,

1. Jake Beckley
2. Bob Johnson
3. Minnie Minoso
4. Norm Cash
5. Charley Jones
6. Ralph Kiner
7. George Van Haltren
8. Ernie Lombardi
9. Jimmy Ryan
10. Dutch Leonard
11. Frank Howard
12. Quiny Trouppe
13. Tommy Bridges
14. Rube Waddell
15. Orlando Cepeda
16. Gavy Cravath
17. Sam Rice
18. Burleigh Grimes
19. Wally Schang
20. Bob Elliott
21. Billy Pierce
22. Dizzy Trout: length and success are a nice combination.
23. Jack Quinn: Pitching to that age, especially in that era, is still quite an accomplishment, and he was very good.
24. Eddie Cicotte: put his seasons in a different order, and he superficially looks better. But he was never worse than average, often far above, and it seems like knuckleballers are more prone to having isolated disaster years. Plus, his career ended because he was banned from the game; he was 36, but wasn't slowing down.
25. Jim Wynn: a true star, and one of the underrated sort for which the HOM was established. While his career flamed out quickly in his mid thirties, that may have been because his superficially low batting average in 1976 made the Yanks and Brewers pull the plug on him too soon the next year; today, his career might not have been over.
26. Tony Oliva: an outstanding performer, but "only" for parts of eleven seasons. Two more of his 1973 might push him up a slot. He might have been a little older, but then again, he might not have.
27. Brooks Robinson: both accounts and numbers proclaim his defensive value, he was an excellent hitter in several seasons, and he hung on for a long time. It feels like he should make it,though I'm not sure just how much better than Boyer he was.
28. Ken Boyer: if he had a little more production or a little more productive length, he'd be higher. But add his defense, and he was very valuable for a reasonably long time. He might eventually make it further up.
29. Edd Roush
30. Bucky Walters: further consideration pushes those others ahead of him.
31. Jose Mendez
32. Joe Torre: a sustained very-goodness, sprinkled with very, very-goodness; caught apparently adequately enough.
33. Urban Shocker
34. Cannonball Dick Redding
35. Bobby Veach

None of the new eligibles make the top 35.
   90. jingoist Posted: September 05, 2006 at 10:57 PM (#2168475)
Vaux;
I'm curious; what type of selection criteria do you employ that would enable you to select Beckley #1 and Brooks Robinson #27?
I've no quibble with voting for either candidate, just curious to learn what metrics might be chosen that would lead to such a spread between two very similar type players (low peak; long prime; long career; good/great defense)?
   91. KJOK Posted: September 05, 2006 at 11:11 PM (#2168485)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Better than Ernie Banks. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

6. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

7. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

8. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking. Close to Marichal also.

9. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

10. JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps, only a little better. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

11. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

12. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

13. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

14. JOE TORRE, C/1B/3B. 22 POW, 103 WARP1, 314 RCAP & .613 OWP in 8,801 PA’s. Def: FAIR. “Catcher bonus” gets him on the ballot.

15. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore.

RETURNEES:

BROOKS ROBINSON, 3B. 14 POW, 120 WARP1, 99 RCAP & .515 OWP in 11,782 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Maybe if he’d been a SS, but too many poor hitting seasons to ignore.

BILL FREEHAN, C. 18 POW, 76 WARP1, 188 RCAP & .554 OWP in 6,899 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Just misses the ballot for now.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still better than him, such as Childs.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Competition in OF tough for a spot on ballot. Just misses

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.
   92. OCF Posted: September 05, 2006 at 11:17 PM (#2168493)
Yes Vaux is going to get a very low consensus score - below either karlmagnus or yest - for that.

One other question: how much attention are you paying to defense? Where are the "gloves" on this ballot?

1. 1B
2. corner OF
3. corner OF
4. 1B
5. corner OF
6. corner OF
7. CF (mostly)
8. C (not known for his defense)
9. CF (mostly)
10. P
11. corner OF
12. C
13. P
14. P
15. 1B

No 2B/3B/SS at all? Robinson at 27 is the first one of those mentioned.
   93. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2006 at 12:00 AM (#2168526)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   94. DL from MN Posted: September 06, 2006 at 01:20 PM (#2168995)
Vaux had Bob Elliott at #20. I don't get Elliott over Brooks. Also no mention of Joe Sewell.
   95. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 06, 2006 at 02:06 PM (#2169031)
I'm going to post my response later, since where I am right now live-comment preview keeps me from seeing what I type for several minutes.

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