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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, September 11, 2006

1985 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Lou Brock, Roy White, Mickey Lolich, Thurman Munson and Catfish Hunter.

Top-ten returnees: José Méndez, Bill Freehan, Joe Sewell , Ralph Kiner, Minnie Minoso, Billy Pierce, Rube Waddell, and Cupid Childs.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2006 at 11:59 AM | 154 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2006 at 12:07 PM (#2173189)
I'll post my ballot sometime this week. More thought is needed for this one.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: September 11, 2006 at 12:19 PM (#2173191)
Nah, it's easy. None of the newbies are that great.

Lots of low level candidates this year. Brock nice long career but low level – just off ballot below Sam Rice. White short career not that good. Munson better than Freehan; with “dead credit” not that far off ballot (but HUGELY inferior to the noble Fisk!) Scott slightly better than White, but still off the bottom. Why did the Sox release McCarver in ’75 when he had hit over .300 for them? – not enough substance in career for HOM otherwise, though. Carty better than White or Scott; in consideration set but won’t make ballot. Lolich and Hunter longish careers but lowish quality; both inferior to Pappas and so just off consideration set but close to it (but not to ballot.)

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve just elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14-12-12-13-14-13-9-9-5-3-3) Rube Waddell. Up again on further reexamination of the minor league credit question. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, and UER were high but not exceptional. If you give minor league credit, he goes to say 3300-3400IP, and is clearly a HOMer.

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

10. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: September 11, 2006 at 12:20 PM (#2173192)
11. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12-13-12-13-13-14-14-12) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

12. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

13. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

14. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14-N/A-15) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

15. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

17. Billy Pierce. Surprisngly good ERA+ in weaker league but not a Yankee. 3307 innings at 119 ERA+ 211-169 definitely better than Redding and Quinn, somewhere around Maglie. Swayed by consensus so moved him up towards ballot.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

20. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

21. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

22. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays

23. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
24. Orlando Cepeda
25. Norm Cash
26. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
27. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
28. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
29. Lou Brock. Consumed a huge number of outs. TB+BB/PA .445, not bad, but TB+BB/Outs .639, pathetic. OPS+109 would be 112 if you adjust for stolen bases. Looks like Sam Rice (also 112, but 2987 hits adjusts to about 3130 when multiplied by 162/154) to me.
30. Mickey Vernon
31. Thurmon Munson Slightly better than Freehan, in very slightly shorter career, which doesn’t get much longer with “dead credit” since he was nearly done in ’79. 1558 hits at OPS+116. Played much more of each season than Freehan, which should be a plus. TB+BB/PA .445, TB+BB/Outs .645.
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Sal Maglie.
34. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
35. (N/A) Heinie Manush
36. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
37. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
38. Bob Elliott
39. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
40. (N/A) Dick Lundy
41. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren.
45. Kiki Cuyler
46. Deacon McGuire
47. Bill Freehan. Much shorter career than McGuire, and only slightly better. 1591 hits at OPS+112 (1636 adjusted to 130 game season.) TB+BB/PA .453, TB+BB/Outs .653.
48. Boog Powell
49. Jim Fregosi.
50. Jack Quinn
51. Tony Mullane
52. Pye Traynor
53. Jim McCormick
54. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
55. Joe Judge
56. Edd Roush
57. Spotswood Poles.
58. Larry Doyle
59. Curt Simmons
60. Roger Bresnahan.
61. Wayte Hoyt.
62. Harry Hooper.
63. Vada Pinson
64. Gil Hodges
65. Jules Thomas.
66. Rico Carty. Nearly Boog. 1677 hits at OPS+132. TB+BB/PA .513 TB+BB/Outs .768.
67. Wilbur Cooper
68. Bruce Petway.
69. Jack Clements
70. Bill Monroe
71. Jose Mendez Even I9 has him below 200 wins, and Chris has him at an ERA+ of 121. Since I think the projections are optimistic anyway (especially I9s) I'll pass, thanks. I think we already have too many NgL players, by any actuarial standard, and I wouldn't elect any more other than possibly Trouppe.
72. Herb Pennock
73. Chief Bender
74. Ed Konetchy
75. Jesse Tannehill
76. Bobby Veach
77. Lave Cross
78. Tommy Leach.
79. Tom York

Moore hugely overrated; off my consideration set.
   4. sunnyday2 Posted: September 11, 2006 at 12:44 PM (#2173204)
1985

Major re-evaluation this week for the “backlog years.” But not as much change at the top as expected.

• Several integration (or “lost”) generation players moved up but the best of them only made it to the fringes—Luke Easter #25 and Marvin Williams #27.

• Several HoM/not PHoM players move up into serious contention for PHoM during these “backlog years”—Drysdale, Hack, Doerr and others.

• Three players whom I had been undervaluing go PHoM in 1985. Billy Williams moves from #10 to #2, Don Drysdale from #17 to #6, and Charlie Keller from #22 to #10.

• Election of 2 of the top 3 consensus returnees welcomed--Mendez #8 here and PHoM way back in 1957, and Freehan #4 and 1984. In the 3rd slot, may I recommend Kiner #4 and 1964 over Sewell #26.

1. Dobie Moore (1-1-3, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

2. Rube Waddell (3-4-5, PHoM 1932)—yes, I incorporated Joe’s work on pitchers into my ratings, and Waddell is only 15th in career PA and 5th in peak WAR. But I believe he deserves some MiL credit for stellar work in the IL during the contraction years just before 1900, so he actually moves up

(2a. Billy Williams [10a-11-new, PHoM 1985]—doesn’t matter much whether he is 2nd or 10th, he goes PHoM either way, but I was perhaps underrating him, or else I am just getting soft on peak versus career)

3. Edd Roush (7-8-10, PHoM 1976)—and I’m also gravitating to a more complete player like Roush over the more one-dimensional player like Kiner, but also remember that Roush’ peak of 38-33-30 makes absolutely no apologies to Kiner’s 37-35-30

4. Bill Freehan (5-6-7, PHoM 1984)—career a lot like Larry Doyle’s except for position(s), also a very complete player like Roush

5. Pete Browning (8-10-11, PHoM 1961)—moves ahead of Kiner among the “sluggers”

6. Ralph Kiner (2-3-4, PHoM 1964)—great hitter, and not just SA but OBP too

(6a. Don Drysdale [17a-21a-20a, PHoM 1985]—Joe’s numbers suggested I was seriously undervaluing him, and I was)

7. Larry Doyle (6-7-6-6, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Edd Roush

8. Jose Mendez (11-15-14, PHoM 1957)—this is with no credit at all for his hitting and his SS years

9. Charley Jones (12-9-7, PHoM 1921)—trying to abandon Charley for years, just can’t do it

10. Addie Joss (13-12-12, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available, another lost cause but I can’t kick the habit

11. Charlie Keller (22-19-22, PHoM 1985)—“So, are you a peak voter or not?” “Yes, I am” “So, why the hell aren’t you supporting Charlie Keller?” “Well, I am, now, finally”

12. Nellie Fox (9-13-16, PHoM 1971)—one of the most valuable <100 OPS+ players ever

13. Dick Redding (33-30-31, PHoM 1971)—another big gainer

14. Eddie Cicotte (49-55-x)—with no death credit

15. Frank Howard (14-16-13)—virtually interchangeable with Cepeda and Cravath

Dropped Out

17. Orlando Cepeda (15-17-15)

Close

(15a. Richie Ashburn [26a-31a-29a])

16. Gavvy Cravath (42-46-38)—as with Keller, I’ve finally bought into the bizarro-Cravath after all these years

(16a. Stan Hack [13a-17a-16a]

18. Phil Rizzuto (17-21-20)—with WWII adjustment, of course

19. Minnie Minoso (16-18-16, PHoM 1970)—2 NeL MLE seasons though at well below peak level

20. Elston Howard (18-23-29)—with “lost generation” adjustments

(20a. Bobby Doerr [13b-18a-17a]
(20b. Jim Bunning [29a-27a-27a])

Also Pretty Good

21. Norm Cash (24-24-24)
22. Ed Williamson (19-25-23, PHoM 1924)
23. Ken Boyer (30-29-42)
24. Hilton Smith (25-22-18)
25. Luke Easter (x-x-x)—incredible story
(25a. Willie Keeler [47a-48a-50d])
26. Joe Sewell (23-28-27)—wish those final 5 years had been at SS instead of 3B
27. Marvin Williams (x-x-x)—also gets some adjustments as a member of the “lost generation”
28. Alejandro Oms (31-34-28)
(28a. Red Faber [57a-57a-50b])
(28b. Wes Ferrell [46a-50a-50c])
29. Rocky Colavito (73-x-x)
30. Bucky Walters (53-53-x)

31. Don Newcombe (x-x-x)—“lost generation”
32. Hugh Duffy (29-26-26)
33. Dizzy Dean (20-27-34)
34. Lou Brock (new)
35. Cupid Childs (40-40-39, PHoM 1925)
36. Vern Stephens (27-31-40)
37. Tony Oliva (48-49-x)
38. Lefty Gomez (57-57-50)
39. Chuck Klein (36-36-37)
40. Billy Pierce (56-x-x)

41. Vic Willis (34-35-19, PHoM 1977)
42. Bus Clarkson (92-x-x)
43. Tommy Bond (21-20-21, PHoM 1929)
44. Dick Lundy (26-32-36)
45. Jim Wynn (35-42-new)
46. Jake Beckley (72-x-x)
47. Bobby Estalella (32-33-25)
48. Quincy Trouppe (28-43-35)
49. Hack Wilson (38-38-32)
(49a. Early Wynn [60a-60a-xa)
50. Pie Traynor (44-44-47)
(50a. Biz Mackey [45a-45a-45a])

Other big gainers in re-eval: Luque, Scales, Tinker, Evers, (Bell.) Big losers: Rosen, McCormick, Welch, Leach, Veach, Lombardi.

Required: All in top 50.

Newbies: Brock #34, Munson #78.
   5. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2006 at 02:13 PM (#2173264)
Nah, it's easy. None of the newbies are that great.

That wasn't my point, karlmagnus. Since the new candidates are weak, we need to make sure that we elect the best backloggers this election.
   6. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2006 at 02:16 PM (#2173267)
A Tale of Two Ballots:


sunnday2: 1. Dobie Moore (1-1-3, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

karlmagnus: Moore hugely overrated; off my consideration set.

:-)
   7. Daryn Posted: September 11, 2006 at 02:27 PM (#2173272)
Childs is not in my top 50. I just can't translate his career totals into enough of a case even given his short seasons, difficult playing conditions and position. Pierce is barely in my top 50, tied with about 10 other similar pitchers.

The other top candidates are all in my top-22. I like Lolich and Hunter, but neither make my ballot. Munson makes my top 50.

1. Mickey Welch (A-) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

2. Lou Brock (A-)– I think the post season value and the tremendous speed put him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. There is a reason he was a first ballot Hall of Famer, and not a wrongheaded one. He was a game changer. You can hate Beckley and still ballot Brock, but I think it is hard to love Beckley and not love Brock (km notwithstanding).

3. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

4. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

6. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

7. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

8. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+. A freak pick on my ballot with his woeful ~1450 hits, but I just like everything else a lot.

9. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

10. Orlando Cepeda (C) – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

11. Jose Mendez (C) – His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Lolich, Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

12. George Van Haltren (C) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Jimmy Ryan ( C) – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

14. Sam Rice ( C)-- 2987 hits speaks to me.

15. Pete Browning (C-) – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

16. Freehan (C-)– best catcher on the Board – I have flip flopped him with Bresnahan, but think both should be on the outside looking in – as others have said, Freehan is the veritable definition of a bubble candidate.

19. Joe Sewell C- – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense. Hurt when compared to a hypothetical integrated league.

22. Minnie Minoso C-
   8. ronw Posted: September 11, 2006 at 02:53 PM (#2173296)
1985 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Dick Redding I haven’t given up on him.

2. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

3. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

4. Joe Sewell 15.8 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. My fraternity brother has a similar case to Robinson.

5. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

6. Bill Freehan – 17.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Outstanding, underrated player. Supplants Bresnahan as the best unelected catcher. Not higher because even with better equipment and longer schedule, he would have the lowest PA among our elected catchers, other than 19th century guys.

7. Lou Brock - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds like a HOMer to me.

8. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

9. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

10. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. I didn’t realize how dominant he was during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

11. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

12. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

13. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

14. Ralph Kiner 24.2 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 8 AS. That peak is hard to ignore.

15. Charlie Keller 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit, he probably should be at least tied with Kiner.

16. Jimmy Wynn 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

17. Minnie Minoso 21.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS (including Negro Leagues). I have another logjam of outfielders.

18. Ben Taylor I’m having trouble between Ben and Jake.

19. Jake Beckley 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

20. Larry Doyle 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES


Missing top 10

Rube Waddell – 23.8 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 5 AS. Just not enough relative IP to his time.

Billy Pierce – 22.1 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 7 AS. Close. I’ve voted for him before.

Cupid Childs – 18.6 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m surprised by the low WS batting totals, compared to someone like Doyle. Still is very close to Larry, based on OWP. I have voted for him and probably will again.

New Notables

Roy White – 20.6 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 7 AS. Not quite enough, but close.

Thurman Munson – 17.2 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 9 AS. Those AS years all came 1970-1978. I have a feeling he would have added a few more. Would have been very close to Freehan.

Mickey Lolich – 18.5 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 7 AS. One of those surprisingly effective pitchers. Seems to be doomed to Larry Jackson status.

Catfish Hunter – 17.5 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 5 AS. He needs a longer career or a higher peak. Seems to be similar to Waddell, value-wise.
   9. rawagman Posted: September 11, 2006 at 03:19 PM (#2173314)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. In an elect-3 week, Ben Taylor and Edd Roush make my PHOM, and Brooks Robinson is off the internal backlog. Nellie Fox continues to rise, moving to the top of the backlog heap for me. Of newcomers, Lou Brock is around the 120 mark, Thurmon Munson is on the list at 61. I was interested at just how poorly both Catfish and Lolich scored for me. Both men come in below my cutoff for the consideration set.
Finally, with the big backlog push beginning, I got around to reviewing all Negro League candidates. Ben Taylor moves waaay up. He was on my ballot before, but not high enough. Quincy Trouppe drops behind Kiner. Dobie Moore goes up a few spots with extra credit for Wreckers play. Oms and Easter go down, and the Bus keeps going up. Looking for more information on Sol White, Andy Cooper and Bill Monroe for incorporation purposes.
Now see fit to give Boyer one year of military credit. Gets him above Minoso, but still just short fo my ballot.

1)Hugh Duffy- Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher (PHOM)
3)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
4)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
5)Joe Sewell (PHOM) - Hard to argue with contact.
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Jose Mendez - Similar, but slightly below, Waddell. (PHOM)
8)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
((8a)Brooks Robinson - The glove)) (PHOM)
9)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game.
10)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak!
11)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week.
((11a)Dick Allen))
((11b)Billy Williams - Quite the sweet swing he had. His career with Kiner's peak would look something like Frank Robinson.))

12)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
13)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
((13a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
14)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
15)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
16)Orlando Cepeda
17)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.
18)Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.
19)Wally Berger - super-underrated
20)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((20a)Juan Marichal))
21)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
22)Roger Bresnahan
23)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
24)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((24a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
25)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
26)Chuck Klein
27)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
28)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((28a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
29)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges
30)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.
31)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
32)Cupid Childs
33)Pete Browning
34)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent.
35)Bus Clarkson - A newcomer to the consideration set. More shades of Quincy.
36)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
37)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
38)Phil Rizzuto
39)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
40)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
41)John McGraw
42)Jimmy Ryan
43)Cy Williams
44)Dolf Camilli
45)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
46)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
47)George Kell
48)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
49)Pie Traynor - makes a leap to here.
50)Bucky Walters
51)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
52)Johnny Evers
53)Elston Howard
54)Bob Johnson
55)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
56)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for pure "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
57)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
58)Red Schoendienst
59)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
60)Thurmon Munson - see below.
61)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
62)Johnny Pesky
63)Hippo Vaughn
64)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
65)Tip O'Neill
66)Rocky Colavito
67)Denny Lyons
68)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
69)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
70)Lon Warneke
71)Don Newcombe
72)Kiki Cuyler
73)Urban Shocker
74)Alejandro Oms
75)Tony Lazzeri
   10. OCF Posted: September 11, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#2173330)
1985 Ballot. I'm now living in Southern California, where I'll stay. And, out of KMOX range, the intensity of my attachment to the Cardinals will gradually fade over the two decades. Interesting year: Tigers, Cubs, Padres ... have you ever seen post-season teams so thin in starting pitching? Part of the reason Morris got so much attention was that there were so few other effective starters in the playoffs.

I haven't heard anyone mention it yet, but the Bill James's Abstracts have had national publishers for several years now. I started reading them in 1982. It's hard to imagine this site and this project without the popularity and impact of those books.

1. Billy Pierce (3, 3, 4, 4, 2) In a backlog year, bubbles back up to the top spot on my ballot. Lost starts (and thus IP) to being used - effectively - as a reliever. RA+ equivalent record of 218-150 with years of equivalent 18-5 (that's his outlier RA+ of 201), 20-10, 19-9, and 19-11.
2. Larry Doyle (5, 4, 5, 5, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
3. José Méndez (6, 5, 6, 6, 4) Maybe Koufax isn't the right comparison, but maybe Coveleski?
4. Bill Freehan (--, 7, 7, 5) The tricky part is comparing a mostly-catcher candidate like Freehan to our part-catcher candidates: Bresnahan, Schang, Trouppe. A terrific two-year peak, a solid career.
5. Quincy Trouppe (7, 6, 8, 8, 6) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
6. Orlando Cepeda (9, 8, 9, 10, 8) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I would take Cepeda over him.
7. Jimmy Wynn (---, 11, 9) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
8. George Van Haltren (10, 9, 10, 12, 10) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
9. Norm Cash (11, 10, 11, 13, 11) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
10. Bucky Walters (8, 7, 12, 14, 12) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges.
11. Joe Sewell (12, 11, 13, 15, 13) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
12. Tommy Bridges (19, 18, 14, 16, 14) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
13. Ralph Kiner (13, 12, 15, 17, 15) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
14. Frank Howard (14, 13, 16, 18, 16) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
15. Lou Brock (new)
His OPS+ underrates him because that's a rate stat and he's a career candidate with a long, flat career (and some weaker years at the ends).
His OPS+ underrates him because of the stolen bases. This is large - even though stolen bases may not in general be that important, consider the impact of stealing 50-60-70 every year with a good success rate for 12 years.
His OPS+ underrates him because he grounded into double plays at a very low rate. This effect is also quite large. It shows up in RC.
His OPS+ underrates him very slightly because his mastery of one-run strategies made the Cardinals harder to shut out in low-scoring times. (Over his productive career, the Cardinals outperformed their Pythag by about half a game a year on average.)
His regular season offensive stats underrate him becuase he was also a dominating World Series performer.
His offensive stats overrate him becuase he wasn't a very good defensive player.
16. Orestes Miñoso (15, 14, 17, 19, 17) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value. Not the offensive value of the big HR hitters, but more mobile on defense.
17. Ken Boyer (16, 15, 18, 20, 18) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
18. Bob Elliott (17, 16, 19, 21, 19) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
19. Jake Beckley (18, 17, 20, 22, 20) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
20. Dick Redding (20, 19, 21, 23, 21)
21. Luis Aparicio (21, 20, 22, 24, 22) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
22. Hugh Duffy (22, 21, 23, 25, 23) Nothing new to say after all these years.
23. Rabbit Maranville (23, 22, 24, 26, 24) Glove and career length.
24. Mickey Vernon (24, 23, 25, 27, 25) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
25. Nellie Fox (25, 24, 26, 28, 26) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
26. Phil Rizzuto (26, 25, 27, 29, 27) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
27. Cupid Childs (27, 26, 28, 30, 28) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
28. Edd Roush (28, 27, 29, -, 29)
29. Vern Stephens (29, 28, 30, -, 30)
30. Dobie Moore (30, 29, ---)

Thurman Munson: makes me realize that I perhaps should have Elston Howard in my top 30. But Munson doesn't have the peak or prime to be there himself.
Roy White: A fine player, but not the one for whom we should be mounting the "overlooked outfielder" charge. There will be others.
Catfish Hunter and Mickey Lolich: RA+ records of 206-178 and 215-189. Very good, but that's not enough to lift them out of the crowd.
   11. DL from MN Posted: September 11, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#2173387)
1985 ballot

1) Bob Johnson - gets the #1 spot on my ballot for the first time; I am not giving him minor league credit.
2) Billy Pierce - top pitching career available
3) Jose Mendez - best pitching peak available, the 5 year 1910-1914 peak might not top Koufax but Mendez also has 1908-1909 and 1923 along with some career bulk between 1914 and 1923. I like Mendez better than Koufax but I'm a career voter.
4) Norm Cash - Very good hitter, very good defender. Platoon player but how hard is it to find a RH bat for 1B as a platoon mate? Primary caddy was Bill Freehan. High OBP, High SLG. My only concern is his similarity to Gil Hodges whom I have ranked much lower. The extra 100 walks and the value of the production relative to the environment is the difference.
5) Jake Beckley - Norm Cash from a different era?
6) Tommy Bridges - war era is short on pitching and I like Bridges better than Lemon and Ferrell
7) Quincy Trouppe - 119 OPS+, average glove, approx 1700 games played.
8) Dutch Leonard - another good war era pitcher
9) Virgil Trucks - Mine was the only vote? Do people not believe in war credit?
10) Joe Sewell - I like his advantages on the other SS candidates
11) Orlando Cepeda - great hitter, if he could have played defense he'd be top 3
12) Minnie Minoso - Bob Johnson minus
13) Ken Boyer - great defender, very good hitter at 3B
14) Jim Wynn - defensive performance drags him down
15) Rube Waddell - beats Bancroft because some of Bancroft's value is in "credit" and Rube's isn't. They're really close.

16) Dave Bancroft - tons of defensive value, good enough bat
17) Ralph Kiner
18) Gavy Cravath - Cravath's credit boosts him just slightly over Kiner but I'll give Kiner the benefit of the doubt since his numbers don't require credit
19) Frank Howard - dreadful glove
20) Bob Elliott
21-25) Urban Shocker, Charlie Keller, Luke Easter, Jack Quinn, Edd Roush
26-31) Jimmy Ryan, Dobie Moore, Dick Redding, Cupid Childs, Hilton Smith, Bill Freehan

38) Thurman Munson - not that far from Freehan or Schang (43) or Bresnahan (46) or Howard (52). Freehan tops the marginal catchers but I think we have to acknowledge they're all marginal. If your catcher adjustment gets all of them on ballot it must place Josh Gibson ahead of Babe Ruth.
51) Lolich
74) Lou Brock - Sam Rice plus plate appearances minus glove

Catfish Hunter doesn't make my top 100
   12. TomH Posted: September 11, 2006 at 05:16 PM (#2173441)
Freehan tops the marginal catchers but I think we have to acknowledge they're all marginal. If your catcher adjustment gets all of them on ballot it must place Josh Gibson ahead of Babe Ruth.
well put, DL! Most of these guys (Munson, Trouppe, Howard, Bresnahan, Schang, Lombardi) may be destined for HOVG purgatory. And my catcher bonus might be higher than most: I have 7 in my top 50, and FWIW, I may be one of a scant few who have Josh Gibson fitting in between Ted/Hank/Josh/Stan/Ty/Mickey in my all-time rankings.
   13. DL from MN Posted: September 11, 2006 at 06:22 PM (#2173530)
I go Eddie Collins, Josh Gibson, Speaker but I haven't spent a ton of time on Gibson. I have 5 catchers in my top 50.
   14. Daryn Posted: September 11, 2006 at 06:28 PM (#2173537)
TomH,

Is Willie up with Babe or behind Mickey?
   15. TomH Posted: September 11, 2006 at 06:49 PM (#2173565)
Babe ... Willie ... Josh Mickey
   16. Juan V Posted: September 11, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2173647)
I begin classes tomorrow, so I´ll post my ballot earlier than I usually do.

1) Joe Sewell: We just had a big discussion on him, and based on it I don´t believe the WARP assessment of his defense is very far off. And, from what I´ve seen, he could have stood out even with stronger competition (even if not as much). So, he stays here.

2) Ralph Kiner: Very mighty hitting prime. Of the players I´ve looked at during my short time in the project, only the inner-circlers of ´82 are higher in this regard.

3) Jose Mendez: He had a good prime too.

4) Alejandro Oms: A hidden gem, nice balance of career and prime

5) Cupid Childs: Another prime candidate, not quite on Kiner/Mendez levels

6) Ken Boyer: With Brooks Robinson now a HOMer, I would like if we took another look at him. I decided not to give military credit, since it wouldn´t impact his rating.

7) Quincy Trouppe: Joe Torre-light. I like to have at least one catcher on my ballot, and it looks like he will satisfy this requirement for a while.

8) Gavvy Cravath: Took another look at his minor league numbers, and he moves up a few notches in result.

9) Billy Pierce: Best pitcher by career (Mendez´s prime and non-pitching career puts him ahead). And a respectable prime.

10) Cannonball Dick Redding: Similar to Pierce.

11) Bob Johnson: Some pretty good numbers, compiled (partly) against diminished opposition.

12) Jimmy Wynn

13) Jimmy Ryan:
My sistem sees them as very similar, besides their first names. Upon further review, I may have botched their placing compared to the bottom of my ballot, so this fixes it. Ryan is the least supported of the 1890s CF threesome, but I think he is the best.

14) Jim Fregosi: A poorer Sewell/Childs. May become my teddy bear.

15) Rube Waddell: Nice peak, not that nice career.

Off ballot. Within each group, players are listed alphabetically. A few movements up and down, as I continue to make individual revisions.

16-20 (The waiting list): Jake Beckley, Bill Freehan, Charlie Keller, Chuck Klein, Dobie Moore
21-29: Dave Bancroft, Roger Bresnahan, Pete Browning, Bob Elliott, Johnny Pesky, Edd Roush, George Scales, Pie Traynor, George Van Haltren
30-37: Bus Clarkson, Larry Doyle, Hugh Duffy, Nellie Fox, Frank Howard, Minnie Miñoso, Thurman Munson, Marvin Williams
38-46: Dick Bartell, Lou Brock, Norm Cash, Orlando Cepeda, Luke Easter, Burleigh Grimes, John McGraw, Artie Wilson, Wilbur Wood

Top 10 disclosures

Freehan: Besides a couple of big seasons, he was in the good-but-not-exceptional range, which hurts him on my prime-carrer centric scorings. However, having taken a big, hard look at the 1984 waiting list, and with Wynn and Ryan making the jump to the ballot, he becomes my "16th man".

Miñoso: Not enough bat for a corner.

Newbies. Munson and Brock make my consideration set.

Munson: He didn´t quite have enough prime, and his career couldn´t make up for it for reasons we all know. Doing a little guesstimate on how he could have finished his career (just for fun), he would have been matched up to Bresnahan, but it would have taken an improbable surge to approach Freehan territory.

Brock: He´s Miñoso without the glove, even after adjusting his OPS+ for the stolen bases. Curiously, he has Kiner´s career score and Beckley´s prime score. He would look a lot better if it was the other way around :)
   17. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 11, 2006 at 11:13 PM (#2173821)
1. Jose Mendez - Truly outstanding peak.

2. Bucky Walters - Not as good a peak as Mendez, but more career value.

3. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

4. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

5. Joe Sewell - Outstanding shortstop. And could hit a little bit too.

6. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

7. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

8. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

9. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

10. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

11. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

12. Minnie Minoso - Very good hitter, over 350 win shares after adding his negro league career.

13. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

14. Billy Pierce - Long career, very good peak. Led league in CG 3 straight years, top 5 in 5 of 6 years. Top 5 in shutouts 5 of 6 years

15. Vada Pinson - Good hitting centerfielder for a long time. Top 100 for career in numerous stats including XBH, TB, RC, R, and hits.

16. Norm Cash
17. Hugh Duffy
18. Edd Roush
19. Bill Freehan - Close to being on ballot.
20. Bob Elliot
21. Tommy Leach
22. Harry Hooper
23. George Van Haltren
24. Alejandro Oms
25. Buzz Arlett
26. Orlando Cepeda
27. Gil Hodges
28. Burleigh Grimes
29. Willie Davis
30. Fielder Jones
31. Dick Redding
32. Pie Traynor
33. Ralph Kiner - Nice peak, but not much career value.
34. Cupid Childs - See Kiner.
35. Wally Berger

Waddell - Not enough career value.
   18. OCF Posted: September 12, 2006 at 12:49 AM (#2173978)
Nine voters. Nine different candidates getting 1st place votes. 17 different candidates getting "elect me" votes. But you knew it would be like this, right?
   19. Daryn Posted: September 12, 2006 at 12:54 AM (#2173992)
Only 19 elect mes I think - Pierce and Welch both have two.
   20. Daryn Posted: September 12, 2006 at 12:54 AM (#2173993)
Only 16 elect mes I think - Pierce and Welch both have two.
   21. OCF Posted: September 12, 2006 at 12:59 AM (#2173999)
It's an elect-3 year, right? So #3 votes count as "elect me."
   22. Chris Fluit Posted: September 12, 2006 at 02:22 AM (#2174132)
18. OCF Posted:
Nine voters. Nine different candidates getting 1st place votes. 17 different candidates getting "elect me" votes. But you knew it would be like this, right?

Look out record books, here comes 1985.
   23. Daryn Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:22 AM (#2174223)
I did not know that.


/Johnny Carson voice
   24. Rusty Priske Posted: September 12, 2006 at 12:40 PM (#2174374)
PHoM: Lou Brock, Jimmy Wynn, Joe Sewell

1. Lou Brock (new)

An easy #1 for me. For a career voter he is tops.

2. Dobie Moore (6,7,9)

I am liking him more and more.

3. Jake Beckley (3,5,6)
4. George Van Haltren (4,4,4)
5. Mickey Welch (5,6,8)

The trifecta of underappreciated by very deserving candidates.

6. Tommy Leach (10,9,7)

7. Edd Roush (12,12,12)

8. Nellie Fox (7,10,11)

Could easily join the JB/GVH/MW group.

9. Hugh Duffy (8,11,10)

10. Quincy Trouppe (13,x,15)

11. Jimmy Wynn (9,15,x)

12. Norm Cash (11,14,14)

13. Cupid Childs (x,x,x)
14. Joe Sewell (x,x,x)
15. Tony Mullane (x,x,x)

3 sneak on in a weak year.

16-20. Rice, Cepeda, Minoso, Willis, Kiner
21-25. Johnson, Pierce, Redding, Streeter, Ryan
26-30. Boyer, Strong, Browning, Gleason, Greene

Is anyone else getting random pop-ups on this site while they type (without clicking on anything)?
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: September 12, 2006 at 12:49 PM (#2174376)
"1. Lou Brock (new) An easy #1 for me. For a career voter he is tops."

OPS+s as regular, 100 or better
LouBrock: 128 26 24 23 19 15 14 12 11 09 08 07 06 01
JBeckley: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02

Whew, I'd hate to go on a rollercoaster that's as steep as THAT timeline. It's a 17-0 sweep for Beckley, ALL of them by double digits. And Beckley gets more fielding credit. Brock? Well, he ran around a lot, and was good in the World Series, I suppose.

Although Rusty has Beckley 3, so he is partly forgiven :)
   26. sunnyday2 Posted: September 12, 2006 at 01:36 PM (#2174400)
Rusty also has Dobie Moore #2 so what the hell!
   27. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 12, 2006 at 01:52 PM (#2174412)
Howie,

Of course WS sees it differently where Brock has like the 3 or 4 best seasons, that is quite a defensive bonus you would be giving Beckley to put him ahead there. Honestly, neither of them are in my top 60 so it doesn't really matter (I guess Beckley is a little better, though Brock has a better peak), I just wish we would stop using OPS+ as a measure of how good a player was, there are many problems with it and it doesn't even take into consideration a number of things a player can do to help his team win.
   28. DL from MN Posted: September 12, 2006 at 01:52 PM (#2174413)
Rusty: Jose Mendez? Freehan? Waddell?

I'm getting random browser crashes for no reason while I type, I suspect for the same reasons.

Brock is looking pretty shiny right now. He would be the worst selection ever in my system (excluding 1870s players).
   29. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 12, 2006 at 01:57 PM (#2174420)
Actually Beckley doesn't beat Brock until season 12 in schedule Adjusted WS though they do tie a few times along the way.
   30. rawagman Posted: September 12, 2006 at 02:01 PM (#2174423)
Typing issues may be related to browser types. Try using alternate browsers - especially if you are using certain Firefox type browsers.
   31. karlmagnus Posted: September 12, 2006 at 02:12 PM (#2174430)
Jschmeagol, WS has the problem of not accounting for the more defensive nature of 1890s 1B; it's only 1-3 WS per annum, so does nothing much to give Beckley a peak, but over a 20 year career it adds up.
   32. sunnyday2 Posted: September 12, 2006 at 02:39 PM (#2174447)
Even if 1B was no more valuable in 1890s than 1990s...it still boggles my mind that Brock would be ahead of Beckley on WS, especially after adjusting for schedule length. Beckley was a better hitter, and a better fielder (again, even forgetting about any additional defensive bonus). Granted, then there is the matter of Brock's base-running, but I don't know, how much does that really add? 5 WS a year (1.67 actual wins)? I doubt if it's that much, but to my eye it would take about that the even things out after computing the hitting and fielding. So, anyway, in this case I don't think WS has it right at all. Was it team performance that gives Brock a boost?

But more important than all of that, thank god I am not getting pop-ups or crashing. I am on Safari.
   33. ronw Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:13 PM (#2174478)
Top 10 individual seasons for adjusted Batting WS (no fielding WS at all):

Beckley            Brock
22.2               28.8
22.2               27.7
21.4               27.0
19.1               23.8
19.1               22.1
18.4               20.2
18.3               19.3
18.2               18.8
18.1               18.8
17.8               18.2
17.4 


That is why I have Brock ahead.
   34. ronw Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:15 PM (#2174482)
Whoops, cut off Brock's 11th season. It is 17.5. Brock beats Beckley every year in adjusted batting WS.
   35. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:26 PM (#2174488)
Karl,

My point wasn't that Beckley sucks, only that OPS+ doesn't really come close to getting the full picture of the two players. Having Brock #1 and Beckley #3 seems reasonable to me even if it isn't necessarily correct.

Also what are their OBP and SLG splits? I know that Brock wasn't an OBP monster but Beckley's OPS is slugging heavy, that may close the gap.
   36. DavidFoss Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:37 PM (#2174504)
Also what are their OBP and SLG splits? I know that Brock wasn't an OBP monster but Beckley's OPS is slugging heavy, that may close the gap.

(OBP+/SLG+/OPS+)

JB-106/119/125
LB-104/105/109

I don't see how that does it. Beckley may be more SLG heavy, but he beats Brock in OBP+.

Its gotta be the baserunning. Beckley stole 300 bases, but with no CS data (and different rules?) they won't have the same value as Brock's do. What do their OWP numbers look like?

Another point for Brock is a very high level of in-season durability. WS loves guys who play 160 games a year. Other than that, its puzzling to me how Brock could be so far ahead.
   37. Chris Cobb Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:48 PM (#2174522)
Its gotta be the baserunning. Beckley stole 300 bases, but with no CS data (and different rules?) they won't have the same value as Brock's do. What do their OWP numbers look like?

For each player's season OWPs (which take baserunning into account, yes?), see posts 63 and 66 on the Brock thread. Executive summary is that Beckley's are somewhat higher. Brock's durability is helping him in win shares, as is his status as leadoff hitter, since that gives him more PA per game. It is the lack of "loss shares," I think, that makes Brock look more valuable offensively than Beckley in win shares.

FWIW, EQA also favors Beckley, .289 to .282 for their careers. Adjusted to WARP's all time context, they are even at .281.

It looks to me like win shares is indeed misleading about offensive value here and overrates Brock.
   38. jingoist Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:49 PM (#2174523)
About 20 or 30 voting years ago some folks mused that the troika of 1890's OFers, GVH, Duffy and Ryan would finally get their due beginning about now as voters cleared the dreaded backlog in "elect 3" years.
Will that finally begin to happen?
It looks rather dubious for any of those 3; seems there are just too many other quality candidates for any one of them to break through.
And if any one of them did, it wouldn't be the HoM's worst selection would it?
   39. TomH Posted: September 12, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#2174530)
Brock is ahead because his teams played 162 games, and Beckely's teams often played 132. Add 20% to Jake's WS!
   40. DavidFoss Posted: September 12, 2006 at 04:46 PM (#2174577)
For each player's season OWPs (which take baserunning into account, yes?)

Thanks. Yes, they take baserunning (and GIDP & SF) into account, its just RC27 tossed into Pythag against lgRC27. In some ways I like it better that RCAA because RCAA is a difference metric which is not scaled by era.
   41. DavidFoss Posted: September 12, 2006 at 04:54 PM (#2174581)
About 20 or 30 voting years ago some folks mused that the troika of 1890's OFers, GVH, Duffy and Ryan would finally get their due beginning about now as voters cleared the dreaded backlog in "elect 3" years.
Will that finally begin to happen?
It looks rather dubious for any of those 3; seems there are just too many other quality candidates for any one of them to break through.


The flood of post-expansion greats doesn't start until 1989. We will be inducting between 7 & 8 backloggers between now and 1988. Take a good look at last years returning top ten (Mendez, Freehan, Sewell, Kiner, Minoso, Pierce, Waddell, Childs). *All* of those guys could very well be inducted during that time. The backlog is being cleared. Now is the time to make your case for guys in the next ten to rise up and pass any of the above. (Although perhaps not in the ballot thread. Sorry about that. :-))
   42. sunnyday2 Posted: September 12, 2006 at 05:33 PM (#2174630)
CF always remains a tough group, what with the mix of offensive and defensively oriented players. Here is the 1984 result.

16. Jim Wynn--pushing the older backloggers out of the way, hard to believe there's not a CF above 16!
17. Hugh Duffy
20. Pete Browning--the offense only model
22. George Van Haltren--on life support
23. Edd Roush
30T. Alejandro Oms
32. Tommy Leach--half of him anyway
44. Jimmy Ryan
66T. Fielder Jones
77T. Hack Wilson
81T. Dom DiMaggio--the mostly defense model

As for me, the hell with positional balance, most of the greatest players end up at SS or CF.

3. Roush--a nice balance of O and D (+20 vs. the consensus)
5. Browning--a nice balance of O and more O (+15)
(15a. Ashburn--but never mind that now)
28. Oms (+2)
32. Duffy (-15)
45. Wynn (-29)
49. Wilson (+28)
52. Berger (+ infinity)
(72a. Bell)
80. Leach (-48)
83. Pinson (+ infinity)

HM. Poles, W. Davis, Ryan (->56), F. Jones (->34)

Consensus/not my top 100: D. DiMaggio (->19)

Very very little agreement here. I would guess the '90s guys (or rather it's really a foursome of 19C guys rather than a troika--Browning, Duffy, Ryan, GVH) are splitting votes. It's not impossible that not a single backlog CF will ever make it.

And Roush has never really caught on--I prefer his teammate Groh but they were pretty close. Likewise, was Sherry Magee really that much better? There's the CF we've been waiting for.
   43. TomH Posted: September 12, 2006 at 05:59 PM (#2174657)
interesting way to look at your guys vs the consensus, sunny. I like it.

re: your one-liner about Dom, here's sumthin to consider:
Dominic DiMaggio = Phil Rizzuto.

Decent offense for their positions, great defense, 10 years as a productive regular plus 3 prime war years missed, same era. Never noticed how similar they are. Scooter had the MVP year/higher peak, probably giving him a pinch more support. I'm surprised that Dom made more all-star teams.
   44. TomH Posted: September 12, 2006 at 06:25 PM (#2174690)
Browning--a nice balance of O and more O

a friendly reminder about Pete... his early years were spent in the weak AA. If we start tracking him at age 25 forward, when the league began to approach NL quality, George "life support" Van Haltren actually has more RCAA from his age 25ff than Browning! Pete's numbers through age 24 rival anyone in history - as good or better than many other truly studly youngsters like Cobb, Williams, Mantle and Foxx. So yes, he really was a great hitter. BUT.
   45. sunnyday2 Posted: September 12, 2006 at 06:38 PM (#2174700)
>interesting way to look at your guys vs the consensus, sunny. I like it.

I've never actually done it before, other than just eyeballing it. It is interesting to look at it that way and then challenge yourself as to why my list is better (or not) than the consensus, or what's the pattern. Is it more O, or more D, or timeline, or what, and is it justifiable. I would commend everybody to do it, and maybe at the position level rather than the whole K&K, as that's a much more granular way to look at your own thinking.

As to Rizzuto and Dom, there is always a pairing that just makes you (me) throw up your (my) hands and wonder if we'll (I'll) ever get to where it all makes sense. Well, no, I don't wonder. I never will.
   46. ronw Posted: September 12, 2006 at 09:03 PM (#2174802)
In response to TomH (#39): My table (#33) <u>does</u> adjust Jake's win shares upward. His unadjusted top WS batting numbers are:

Beckley (unadjusted top 11)
20.3
19.2
19.2
17.3
17.2
16.5
16.5
15.4
15.0
14.9
14.2
   47. Tiboreau Posted: September 12, 2006 at 09:33 PM (#2174824)
Seems this thread has morphed into merely ballot discussion.

1. sp Jose Mendez (1, 3, 4)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
2. 2b Cupid Childs (2, 4, 5)—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
3. ss Dobie Moore (3, 5, 6)—Since his candidacy is based on his stellar peak (as well as pre-1920 credit) his numbers are underrated due to regression. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
4. lf Charlie Keller (4, 6, 9)—After WWII credit Keller’s peak, while not quite as high, is sufficiently stronger than Kiner’s to slip ahead. King Kong also receives credit for his last year with the Newark Bears.
5. sp Bucky Walters (5, 7, 7)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
6. lf Ralph Kiner (6, 8, 8)—Both Win Shares and WARP agree that Kiner & Keller were the best outfielders, peak-wise, available. Below Moore because, while their peak was better, Moore is closer to longer career, good peak infielders than the two peak-centric outfielders are to their counterparts.
7. c Bill Freehan (8, 10, 10)—Two excellent seasons plus a few more solid ones make for a nice peak, the best among catchers according to Win Shares.
8. sp Dizzy Dean (9, 11, 11)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
9. 3b Al Rosen (10, 12, 12)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else. Career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
10. cf Alejandro Oms (12, 14, 13)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
11. sp Rube Waddell (13, 15, 14)—While a real good player at his peak, his character created interesting issues for his teams, evidenced by his disappointing IP totals during that time and his UERA totals over his career.
12. cf Jimmy Wynn (14, ob)—One of my favorite ballplayers from before my time, an underrated ballplayer considering era and ballpark who combined speed and patience with surprising power for his stature, I’m happy to see him rate well. A real good peak, although the Toy Cannon’s inconsistency, mixing mediocre seasons with superb, hurts him a bit.
13. c Elston Howard (15, ob)—After pre-MLB credit, a similar player to Roger Bresnahan; his peak is slightly better, career slightly shorter. Howard jumps ahead Bresnahan, however, due to the fact that he was entirely a catcher during his peak, while Bresnahan spent significant time in the outfield during his best years.
14. sp Billy Pierce (ob)—Did not have the IP per season I like, which is reflected in WS and WARP’s peak assessments, but this doesn’t account for leveraged IP and other strategic usage patterns.
15. cf Hugh Duffy (ob, ob, 15)— Is the first of several players between 15 and 22 that WS and WARP diverge on. In Duffy’s case it’s due to the dominance of his teams, and while I think he deserves much of that credit, considering his OPS+ and WARP I’m no longer sure that he deserves it to the extent that WS credits to his peak.

Required Disclosures:
30. ss Joe Sewell (ob)—He had a solid prime, dominating in an era of weak shortstops; however, his peak isn't quite as strong as I'd like and his best competition was banned from the majors. Similar in value to Bob Elliott according to WS.
31. lf Minnie Minoso (ob)—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory.
   48. Jim Sp Posted: September 12, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#2174842)
1) Mendez--PHoM in 1932.
2) Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939. 5 years with WARP3 > 10.0, plus an 8.8 and an 8.5. Easy best Warp peak of the holdovers. PHoM 1939.
3) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. I was a WS guy but here in particular I think Warp has it right—great defense. PHoM in 1970.
4) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. PHoM in 1970.
5) Dick Redding--
6) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3.
7) Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years.
8) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8.
9) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
10) Elliott--PHoM in 1960.
11) Munson
12) Jimmy Wynn
13) Dobie Moore--
14) KellerAdded back the war credit.
15) Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control. PHoM 1975
   49. TomH Posted: September 13, 2006 at 12:11 AM (#2174949)
ronw, thanks.

I don't get the WS then. Beckley beats Brock's 10 best years in RCAA by 4 runs a year. You can adjust his RCAA down by 25% to account for run scoring diffs in the league, but back up by 20% for schedule, so he would still be ahead. Ah well.
   50. Sean Gilman Posted: September 13, 2006 at 12:12 AM (#2174950)
Freehan, Roush and Carey join my PHOM.

1985

1. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

2. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Cupid Childs (4)--I don’t understand how he fell through the cracks, maybe things will turn around in the upcoming backlog years, but with the growing spectre of timelining, I doubt it. (1938)

4. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

5. Minnie Minoso (6)--Comparison with Clemente showed I’d been underrating his nice balance of career and peak in favor of more one-sided candidates. (1979)

6. Larry Doyle (8)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

7. Bill Freehan (9)--Good career value and an excellent peak for a catcher. Is he tremendously underrated by history, or am I just overrating him?

8. Edd Roush (10)--Another beneficiary of the Clemente Comparison. A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s.

9. Ken Boyer (11)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

10. Joe Sewell (12)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. (1976)

11. Hugh Duffy (13)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. Counting players not in my PHOM, I’ve got 11 Outfielders between Duffy at #15 and Vada Pinson at #35. There really isn’t much difference between any of them. (1964)

12. George Van Haltren (14)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

13. Jose Mendez (15)--Very slight edge over Mays, who hardly anyone appears to like as much as me. (1972)

14. Carl Mays (16) (1968)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit.

(Max Carey)

15. Alejandro Oms (17)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder.

(Richie Ashburn)
(Sam Thompson)
16. Ralph Kiner (18)
17. Nellie Fox (19)
(Joe Medwick)
18. Jimmy Wynn (20)
(Earl Averill)
19. Frank Howard (21)
(Joe Gordon)
(Bobby Doerr)
20. Quincy Trouppe (22)
(Red Faber)
21. Bob Elliott (23)
(Red Ruffing)
22. Vada Pinson (24)
23. Bucky Walters (25)
24. Wally Berger (26)
(Ted Lyons)
25. Dick Redding (27)
26. Ed Williamson (28)
27. Dobie Moore (29)
28. Norm Cash (30)
29. Orlando Cepeda (31)
(Bob Lemon)
30. Billy Pierce (32)
31. Vern Stephens(33)
32. Roger Bresnahan (34)
33. Lou Brock (-)
34. Dave Bancroft (35)
35. Jimmy Ryan (36)
36. Charlie Keller (37)
37. Tony Lazzeri (38)
38. Phil Rizzuto (39)
39. Rube Wadddell (40)
(Rube Foster)
40. Jake Beckley (41)
   51. Rick A. Posted: September 13, 2006 at 03:06 AM (#2175140)
Like Sunny I've reevaluated the "lost generation" of Negro League players. Don Newcombe jumped up the most.

PHOM
Elston Howard
Jimmy Wynn
Minnie Minoso

1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
5. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
6. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
7. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
8. Hugh Duffy – Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
9. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
10. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11. Bill Freehan - Best catcher on the ballot. Elected PHOM in 1983
12. Edd Roush –Elected PHOM in 1975.
13. Ralph Kiner – Incredible peak. Elected PHOM in 1971.
14. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
15. Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973.

Required Disclosures
Minnie Minoso Off my ballot, but he enters my PHOM this year. Obviously, I think he is worthy.
Rube Waddell Not far from my ballot.
Joe Sewell Not as good as Stephens, Rizzuto, or Pesky
Billy Pierce Along with Sewell, the candidate I just don't get. I think Don Newcombe is the 1950's pitcher we're missing in the HOM.

New Candidates
Lou Brock In the low 80's for me. I am a peak/prime voter and Brock just doesn't have it.
Roy White Underrated, but nowhere near my ballot.Barely in the top 100.
Thurman Munson Not too far from Howard, but small differences cause a large gap these days.
Lolich and Hunter Not enough peak or career

Off the ballot
16-20 Oms,EHoward,Wynn,Bresnahan,Minoso
21-25 Cravath,Newcombe,Waddell,Monroe,Mays
26-30 Fox,FHoward,Johnson,Elliott,Easter
31-35 Trouppe,Scales,MWilliams,AWilson,Doyle
36-40 FJones,Boyer,Clarkson,McGraw,Munson
41-45 Leach,HWilson,Keller,WCooper,Stephens
46-50 Matlock,Rizzuto,Cepeda,Poles,HSmith
51-55 Tiernan,Traynor,Winters,Rosen,Bond
56-60 Schang,ACooper,Van Haltren,Ryan,DiMaggio
   52. rawagman Posted: September 13, 2006 at 07:22 AM (#2175377)
Rick A. - If you like pitcher peaks, where's Lefty Gomez?
   53. TomH Posted: September 13, 2006 at 03:45 PM (#2175606)
1985 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP or OPS+ adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Joe Sewell (3) [5]
Okay, let’s admit it; I’ve been drumming for Sewell, but these are a group of flawed candidates, like the Maryland primary I voted in yesterday. Peak/prime voters will (and ought to!) love Dobie Moore, just as they did Hughie Jennings. Strict careerists with luv for D could go with Looie Ap (post-integration) or Rabbit M or Bancroft. But Joe did both very well, for 13 years. So he is at the top of a weak field. When elected, he’ll probably fall into the category of Max Carey; not many of us were completely sold on him, but most of us thought he was at least near-honorable.
2- Billy Pierce (4) [8]
Similar to Bucky Walters, but with some bonus value out of the bullpen.
3- Jake Beckley (5) [12]
Very fine career, understated by Win Shares.
4- John McGraw (6) [39]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen. The HoM is short of 1890s infielders.
5- Ken Boyer (8) [14]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader. Teensy minor league credit.
6- Bucky Walters (7) [25]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
7- Cupid Childs (9) [10]
Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him. Consistently the best at his position, which not many on this ballot can say.
8- George Van Haltren (11) [22]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
9- Bill Freehan (10) [4]
Wow. I was too young to appreciate his prime, growing up on Fisk/Bench/Munson, but why didn’t anyone tell me I missed someone that good just a few years earlier?
10- Bob Johnson (12) [24]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists. Better according to WARP than Dick Allen!
11- Minnie Minoso (13) [7]
Very similar to Bob Johnson.
12- Frank Chance (14) [64]
A great player on great teams.
13- Ralph Kiner (15) [6]
Power prime!
14- Charlie Keller (off) [29]
King Kong!
15- Dick Redding (off) [13]
Cannonball!

Begging for ballot space next election: J Wynn, R Bresnahan, D DiMaggio, B Monroe.

Mendez: 20th. I'm not a peak voter. Go ahead, get elected, ye ruiner of my consensus score! Off with ye!
Waddell: 21st. Not that highly ranked versus his contemps.
   54. OCF Posted: September 13, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2175699)
To ronw (re #33 and related posts): That agrees with the numbers I have from a slightly different perspective. One must understand that Beckley played in a much higher run environment than Brock.

To Rusty Priske: Hey, I'm a friend of Brock, and I've been trying to make his case. But even I can't see a case for #1.
   55. Adam Schafer Posted: September 13, 2006 at 08:08 PM (#2175968)
Congrats to Torre on last years election. It's 1985 and while he appears to be a decent
manager, it doesn't appear at this point that his, LaRussa or Cox's managerial capabilities are going to get them into the Hall of anything.

1. Bill Freehan - Great catcher, very underrated IMO. Granted he's not Berra, or Gibson,
or Cochrane but he is still one of the more elite catchers of all time. Yes Wynn is
underrated, but Freehan was very underrated as well.

2. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins
were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I
guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games.
Welch may have pitched against worse teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the
same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all
major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of
the best over and over.

3. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

4. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

5. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in,
but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

6. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

7. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in
Batting Average.

8. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more
stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

9. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I
didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support. He rarely struck out, didn't have
the glove that B. Robinson did, but had a better bat.

10. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I
didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of
room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

11. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

12. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

13. Quincey Trouppe - I'm starting to be become a believer.

14. George Van Haltren - he keeps hanging around the ballot.

15. Edd Roush -

16. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

17. Jimmy Wynn - Very underrated. Might even make my PHOM if I had one, I like him, don't
let this ranking at the 19 spot fool you. It's not his fault I think 18 people not elected
so far are more deserving.

18. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one
with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for
average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

19. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak
voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had
a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my
ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.

20. Ralph Kiner - If he could've had 2 more good (not even necassarily great) years, he
could've moved up to the top 3 or 4 spots on my ballot. As is, not enough career value for
me. Not too far from Dick Allen on my ballot.

21. Billy Pierce - I like Pierce, I really do. Spots 15-20 are extremely tight. I don't have
him ranked as far from Marichal as it may seem.

22. Lou Brock - At first I thought I was going to give him props for a nice career as I'm
typically a career voter, but honestly, I don't like him that well. Had a lot of
strikeouts, average wasn't great, didn't walk much. Did good in the post season though, and
does merit top a top 25 spot from me for career value. I don't know about this Rickey
Henderson guy or this Tim Raines character, but I think I'll like them a lot more when
their careers are over.

23. Cupid Childs - Extremley good 2nd baseman for his time. Not as much career as McPhee or
I would've liked him better. Still not 100% sure I even want him this high.

24. Tommy Leach -

25. Catfish Hunter - 6 pretty good years, good enough to impress me some, not good enough to
get higher than this.
   56. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 13, 2006 at 09:42 PM (#2176089)
Yes, I'm fully aware my consensus score will take a hit this election. :-)

Though I did some juggling, the top-three from '84 still didn't make the cut.

Brock? Fine, fine player, but not really outstanding, IMO. BTW, I'd take Beckley over him, too.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

2) Cupid Childs-2B (3): Best major league second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.



3) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/dh (4): Extremely surprised that he's not getting more support. Best player at his position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, 1969, and 1972. Best right fielder for 1974.

4) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (5): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

5) Alejandro Oms-CF (9): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

6) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (7): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

7) Pie Traynor-3B (8): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

8) Burleigh Grimes-P (11): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

9) Mickey Welch-P (12): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

10) Dobie Moore-SS (15): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.
   57. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 13, 2006 at 09:42 PM (#2176091)
11) Bucky Walters-P (13): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

12) Vic Willis-P (14): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

13) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (10): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

14) Charley Jones-LF/CF (n/e): Another old timer returns! He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

15) Billy Nash-3B (n/e): Back on the ballot after a few week's absence. Possibly the best defensive third baseman of the 19th century (and not too bad offensively). Great arm and a master of handling bunts. Captain for the Beaneaters for five seasons (1891-1895; thanks to Cliff Blau for uncovering the other three years of his captaincy) and the highest paid player on the team after the Players' League folded. He was never the same after a beaning in 1896 (he developed vertigo). Best ML third baseman for 1888, 1892, and 1893. Best NL third baseman for 1887 and 1889. Best PL third baseman for 1890.

Mendez, Freehan, Sewell, Kiner, Pierce, Waddell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   58. Mike Webber Posted: September 13, 2006 at 10:21 PM (#2176128)
5) Billy Nash-3B


Does Nash have a thread? Or a Keltner list somewhere?
   59. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 13, 2006 at 10:53 PM (#2176154)
Does Nash have a thread?

Here you go, Mike:

Billy Nash

Not that there's anything in it, though. :-D
   60. Chris Fluit Posted: September 13, 2006 at 11:52 PM (#2176195)
1. Jose Mendez, P (2) I still love both of the Negro League pitchers from the '10s. Mendez-- who was dominant during the first half of the decade and whose MLEs are better than a personal favorite like Pierce-- gets his first-ever first-place vote from me.

2. Dick Redding, P (3) Like ronw, I haven't given up on Redding. I still believe he's Hall of Merit-worthy as a dominant pitcher during the second half of the '10s. I know that his reputation took a hit downward after the Hall of Fame vote which leaves me wondering why the voters take so much stock in the negative opinion about Redding but ignore the positive vote for Cooper, Day and Smith.

3. Quincy Trouppe, C (4) It surprises me that so many people are refusing to vote for Trouppe because of the number of games that he played at other positions while Joe Torre- who had an even lower percentage of games caught- sailed in last year. Trouppe is easily the best catcher on the ballot and better than several that we've already enshrined.

4. Nellie Fox, 2B (5). Has there really not been a single HoM-worthy second baseman since Jackie Robinson? I think there has and his name is Nellie Fox.

5. Alejandro Oms, CF (6). Oms moved way up my ballot a couple of votes ago. His first ten years are as good as Kiner's and although his career isn't well documented after that, what we do know shows that he was still a league leader.

6. Billy Pierce, P (7). The perfect candidate for a prime-voter like myself. He's got the peak years I look for from '53-'58 and just enough career bulk to pass 200 wins.

7. Lou Brock, LF (n/e). I knew that the support for Brock wouldn't be great, but I'm surprised it's as low as this. I'm not convinced that he was as good as Oms, but he still looks slightly better than Minoso.

8. Burleigh Grimes, P (8). Another big mover a couple of elections back. Grimes has the second-best career value of any pitcher on the ballot and he's got the peak that Mickey Welch lacks.

9. Minnie Minoso, LF (9). An All-Star from the moment he stepped into the majors. He may not have had the one big year that made him the best player in the game, but he was such a steady customer that he was always close.

10. Don Newcombe, P (10). Glad to see that some of you are coming around on someone like Newcombe, a great pitcher with an odd career because of integration and the Korean War.

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (11). I like the combination of peak and career better than the other first basemen who seem to be either peak-only or career-only candidates.

12. Rube Waddell, P (12). A dominant pitcher for a solid ten seasons.

13. Luis Aparicio, SS (13). We've only elected one shortstop from 1958 -when Pee Wee Reese retired- until now and that was Ernie Banks. Middle infielders of the '50s and '60s are being woefully shortchanged. Aparicio played great defense, walked more than people give him credit for (his career OBP is 50 points higher than his AVG) and ran the bases well. In other words, he did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than the rest.

14. Hugh Duffy, CF (14). More than just the Triple Crown of 1894, Duffy was scoring black ink as early as 1890 and as late as 1897. He was one of the best players on one of the best teams of the era.

15. Ken Boyer, 3B (n/a). A welcome back to the ballot for Ken Boyer who edges out Traynor as the best third baseman available.

16-20: Ernie Lombardi, Hilton Smith, Dobie Moore, Jake Beckley, Pie Traynor
21-25: Pete Browning, Bill Monroe, Ben Taylor, Ralph Kiner, Larry Doyle

Top Ten Returnees:
Bill Freehan: He'd be above my personal in/out line but I have him ranked only 3rd among eligible catchers.
Joe Sewell: I've voted for him before but at this point, I prefer Dobie Moore. Sewell is currently 26th on my ballot.
Ralph Kiner: The best corner outfielder not on my ballot, I have Kiner 24th.
Cupid Childs: With the exception of Nellie Fox, I don't see a lot to distinguish the top candidates at 2B: Childs, Doyle, Monroe or Schoendiest.
   61. DanG Posted: September 14, 2006 at 04:57 AM (#2176464)
My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #2 were elected. An elect-3 year in 1985 has no obvious HoMers, with Brock and Munson having the most impressive cachet. The drought continues in 1986 as we elect McCovey and another backlogger. Bonds and Bando lead off in 1987, when we elect three. The backlog bonanza ends in 1988 as Stargell, Tiant and R. Smith grab the spotlight. (We really should be discussing these upcoming candidates in depth already. At this late stage of the project, two weeks is inadequate time to evaluate borderline candidates.)

1) George Van Haltren (3,5,4) – Reclaims #1, last achieved in 1975-76. After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1972 to 1978, he went from the #1 unelected player to #15. Finished out of the top 20 again, as two more guys passed him and he slips below the Gray Area for the first time. Why? Now in his 77th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

2) Edd Roush (5,7,6) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. Support recovered last election, passing three guys. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

3) Tommy Leach (4,6,5) – Held his ground, after tumbling out of the top 30 in 1983. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

4) Minnie Minoso (6,8,7) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

5) Bill Freehan (7,9,8) – More durable than Roger, even adjusted for era. Peak nearly as high. Could move up.

6) Jake Beckley (9,12,11) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

7) Roger Bresnahan (8,10,9) – Only about nine voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

8) Burleigh Grimes (11,14,13) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


9) Jimmy Ryan (10,11,10) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 14 voters who had GVH in their top twelve last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

10) Charlie Keller (13,15,14) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with highest OPS, 1938-51, minimum 4500 PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize
5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine
12-.834 V. Stephens
13-.834 R. York
14-.832 B. Nicholson
15-.828 A. Galan
16-.827 B. Doerr
17-.823 B. Elliott
18-.822 J. Gordon

11) Wally Schang (12,13,12) – My other Lost Cause, along with Ryan. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

12) Cupid Childs (14,--,15) – I’ve voted for him 11 times previously: we’re at the point where he’ll never fall off again, as we’ll keep mining the backlog. Edges Doyle on league strength and era dominance. Players with OBP over .410, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1—.455 B. Hamilton
2—.433 T. Cobb
3—.431 T. Speaker
4—.423 D. Brouthers
5—.421 E. Collins
6—.416 C. Childs
7—.415 J. Burkett
8—.413 R. Thomas
9—.411 E. Delahanty

13) Ralph Kiner (15,--,--) – Keeps his ballot spot. I’m not a big fan of short careers or narrow skill sets. But, I’ve never seen him on any “questionable hall of famers” survey. NBJHBA rates him ~#171. Like Keller, a long, high prime. Could move up.

14) Billy Pierce (--,--,--) – Second time on ballot. Only Spahn, Roberts and Lemon were completing a higher percentage of their starts; Pierce was also relieving about five times a year in his prime. It adds a lot of leverage to his pitching, as has been discussed.

15) Ken Boyer (--,--,--) – New evidence that he deserves a year or so for war credit gets him on the ballot. His adjusted WS go to ~305.

I don’t usually write about newbies I’m not voting for, but now I must make an exception because if we elect Lou Brock this year it’s a big mistake. He isn’t really close to measuring up, even for a career voter, and I think the Beckley comparison has distracted us from a more thorough analysis of his case. Very little defensive value, even for a corner OF. Adjust him down to 154-game schedules and he falls short of 2900 hits (no 200-hit seasons) and Cobb’s SB total. Postseason of 92 PA doesn’t add much; even if you double that you add about one-fourth of a season. Hung around for three nothing years, chasing milestones. OTOH, his was a unique career, and a deeper analysis from several years on the ballot might illuminate some now-hidden merit; but I doubt it. In sum, I see him as scarcely better than recent candidates Pinson and W. Davis.

Top tenners off ballot:

Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters. In fact, I have a suspicion that some of their lofty ranking is due to the fact that, because most of their analysis was the work of others, voters are unable to justify a downgrading.

Duffy was a regular on my ballot until 35 years ago and may return someday; like Thompson his raw performance was greatly inflated by a hitter’s park. I’ve never voted for Sewell, the “position-era domination” argument doesn’t do much for me, when that's all you have. OTOH, I’ve never voted for Waddell because he ranks behind many other pitchers of his era, where it was easy for pitchers to dominate. In all three cases, their performances are not historically rare.
   62. rawagman Posted: September 14, 2006 at 09:17 AM (#2176517)
DanG - Not to quibble with your rankings, but those charts of yours...talk about damning someone with faint praise. Straight out of the Jayson Stark school of statistical manipulation.
   63. Max Parkinson Posted: September 14, 2006 at 11:31 AM (#2176531)
19 ballots:

15 different Number 1s.
25 different elect-mes.

Wow.
   64. Daryn Posted: September 14, 2006 at 02:16 PM (#2176674)
Adjust him down to 154-game schedules and he falls short of 2900 hits (no 200-hit seasons) and Cobb’s SB total.

He would have one 199.52 hit season, depending on how you do the adjustment.
   65. Mark Donelson Posted: September 14, 2006 at 03:37 PM (#2176776)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

pHOM: Brooks Robinson, Cravath, Pierce.

I did a CF re-evaluation, having decided I hadn’t been taking into account enough the artificial boost given to CF defense by WS. As a result, many of the CFs dropped, at least a bit. Roush rose slightly, though (I’d been over-discounting him for his era, I found), and Wynn stayed where he was.

1985 ballot:

1. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Comparable with some of the best ML pitchers of his era, and those are some pretty shiny names.

2. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much (especially with the revelation that they’re not particularly egregious).

3. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m pretty confident this guy was the real deal.

4. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). I’m convinced he was the class of his position at his time, plus generally dominant for long enough to get my vote (which to me is what differentiates him from the likes of Sewell).

5. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

6. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

7. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

8. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least for anyone with as much of a peak emphasis as I have. Drops a bit after my CF re-evaluation, though.

9. Bill Freehan (pHOM 1983). Nearly identical to Elston Howard, but the slightly better five-year peak edges out Howard’s possibly very slightly better defense.

10. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats. And I’m trying not to let the fact that David Straithairn played him give him a further boost. Successfully, I think. :)

11. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

12. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Three lost causes in a row! Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he presents an awfully appealing peak.

13. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

14. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years at this position are enough for me.

15. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). After a long approach, he finally lands on my ballot. It’s hard to see through the AA haze, but any way I peer, he looks truly dominant.
   66. Mark Donelson Posted: September 14, 2006 at 03:39 PM (#2176778)
16-20: Trouppe (1967), Browning (1979), [B. Robinson (1985)], Walters (1968), Cravath (1985), Pierce (1985)
21-25: Fox, Wynn, Gomez, Bresnahan (1973), [Faber], F. Howard
26-30: Roush, McGraw, [B. Williams], H. Smith, Redding (1975), Pesky
31-35: Berger, Trout, Boyer, Joss, [Reese], H. Wilson
36-40: [Lyons], Leach, [Wynn], Oms, [W. Ford], McCormick, Doyle, Minoso
41-45: Chance, J. Ryan, Elliott, Cepeda, [Lemon], Munson
46-50: Burns, Easter, Brock, Colavito, Rizzuto

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Sewell. There’s just not remotely enough peak here for me, and I really don’t care how much better he was than the other guys at the position at the time. In my re-evaluation, Stephens jumps over him again, and now both are just outside my top 50.

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren: very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. At #40.

•Pierce. Not enough peak to be among my most favoritest pitchers eligible, but after some adjustment for era (‘50s pitchers as a rule have peak trouble, and that can’t all be just because there weren’t good ones), he joins the second tier. At #20, and he makes it into my pHOM.

•Brock. Purely on the numbers, he doesn’t have nearly enough peak even to be close to my top 50. I gave him some boosts for his postseason record (small) and for his really remarkable SB record (larger—I’m not a big fan of SBs, but his percentage was always good, and he played in an era where they mattered a bit more than usual), but even that only got him just inside the top 50; he debuts at #48.

•Roy White. A second-tier favorite player of mine from my childhood (poor Roy, never first-tier anything in perception, somehow), and even I was surprised to discover how good he really was. But while he’s good enough to enter the discussion, he still doesn’t have the peak for me. Falls slightly outside my top 50.

•Munson. Another childhood favorite, though I think as a kid I respected him more than I liked him (and as an adult I can see why, on both accounts). My first baseball-player poster in my room, preceding his old pal Reggie. And yet…just not enough there for me to break past the other catchers on or near my ballot. Thurm debuts at #45.

•Hunter. I wanted to give him extra credit for his one-liners (my favorite is the one about how the Reggie Bar was the candy bar that “when you open it, it tells you how good it is.”), but I resisted. I concur, sadly, with the general consensus that Catfish is an HOF mistake; he’s not close to my top 50. A couple of really good years, but they weren’t quite good enough to trump the fact that there weren’t enough of them (even for a short-peak guy like me).

•Lolich. Even less peak than Hunter in my system. Not remotely close.
   67. What's the realistic upside, RMc? Posted: September 14, 2006 at 07:21 PM (#2177001)
I'm just amazed that Hugh Duffy is still getting votes after 78 years, including two first-place votes last time (or two more than he got when he was first eligible in 1907)! Plus lotsa votes for people like Jake Beckley, Cupid Childs, Gavvy Cravath...geez, aren't there any modern players to vote for? ("Modern" as in, say, they played after the Great War?)

Oh, and hi. I'm back. Well, not really. I stopped voting for HoM because I realized I wasn't especially qualified and it was turning into a pain...and besides, how many snappy-yet-informative comments can you come up with for Pete Browning?

Anyway, I'll be watching.
   68. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 14, 2006 at 07:49 PM (#2177044)
Plus lotsa votes for people like Jake Beckley, Cupid Childs, Gavvy Cravath...geez, aren't there any modern players to vote for?

That's their problem, RMc. The modern guys kept going in before them. Now with a shortage of newly eligible modern stars, they have a chance again.

Welcome back!
   69. Al Peterson Posted: September 14, 2006 at 08:04 PM (#2177062)
1985 ballot which from the discussions is hotly contested. I’m still tinkering with the latest attempt to fix my system, which now leans toward fielding positions. It tries to mix peak, prime, and career. How successful it does that is open to debate.

1. Dick Redding (1). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years.

2. Rube Waddell (2). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

3. Billy Pierce (5). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that. I buy into the leverage argument for him, seemed to come into tight relief spots the way an ace should.

4. Norm Cash (6). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things.

5. Bill Freehan (9). 11 time All-Star, 5 time Gold Glove. I can’t go against observers so much that he doesn’t ballot.

6. Tommy Leach (8). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

7. Joe Sewell (7). I’ve come around a little bit on the ironman. His work at SS was excellent, lacked a little in length but not enough to dismiss as a candidate as we delve into the backlog.

8. Ken Boyer (12). Like a Robinson in quality, didn’t quite play as long. The minor league credit argument is interesting since he was a pitcher part of the time down on the farm.

9. Tony Mullane (11). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted.

10. Dobie Moore (13). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

11. Roger Bresnahan (15). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

12. Cupid Childs (14). This is a nod to similarities to Sewell. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

13. Jimmy Wynn (10). There’s a peak there to consider – just didn’t put it all in one straight stretch. The Toy Cannon made many a Houston fan happy during the 60s and 70s.

14. Pete Browning (28). Every time I want to dismiss him due to poor fielding, discount the AA, etc. I still can’t help but consider the hitting quality. Man had few peers with the stick in his hand.

15. Jose Mendez (17). The record speaks to a nice peak and a career rebirth hitting/fielding. I’ve always liked the Cuban star, just now enough to ballot.

16-20: Bob Johnson, Ryan, Walters, Oms, Minoso
21-25: Mays, Poles, Bancroft, Byrd, C. Jones
26-30: Duffy, Elliott, Easter, Evers, Welch
31-35: Shocker, Roush, Schang, Willis, Stephens
36-40: Beckley, Luque, Munson, Rizzuto, Grimes
41-45: Brock, Bridges, Ben Taylor, Trouppe, Bartell
46-50: Cicotte, Trout, Cross, Traynor, Quinn

Top 10 Returnees: Beckley(#36), Minoso(#20), Kiner(#60). Minoso gets tied to Bob Johnson to me, see Indian Bob slightly better. Both are credible candidates. Kiner gets killed by his fielding prowess (or lack thereof) and just needing another strong year or so. Beckley – never has so much been written about one player. If you don’t know the pros and cons then welcome to the Hall of Merit :)

New guys: Munson and Brock debut real close to each other at #38 & #41 yet you’d be hard pressed to find two different folks. Munson was burning out at the end, Brock could run but was a bit skittish in the field. Hunter, Lolich, I’m not feeling any love from me.
   70. rico vanian Posted: September 14, 2006 at 08:12 PM (#2177075)
I place alot of value on peak, prime and career value, with a side helping of black and grey ink. I do not generally give alot of credit to minor league, miltary leave or alien abductions.

1) Ralph Kiner - 7 home run titles in a row. I see a lot of attention to players who had a few good years and how deserving they are to be HOM’ers, but jeez, this guy led the league in Home Runs 7 straight years! Mega peak.
2) Nellie Fox - 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
3) Ernie Lombardi - 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.

4) Chuck Klein - 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
5) Burleigh Grimes - 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
6) Pie Trayner - .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
7) Luis Aparicio - nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
8) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
9) Rube Waddell- The Randy Johnson of the 20th centuries' first decade. Randy just doesn't have a sense of humor (but might be just as insane as Rube was).
10) Phil Rizzuto - SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
11) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
12) Jake Beckley - almost 3000 hits.
13) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
14) Ken Boyer -. MVP. 7 all star games. Better hitter than Brooks Robinson and almost as good in the field.
15) Lou Brock- The P.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.


<u>almost doesn't count</u>
16) Jose Mendez- So much of his career is anecdotal, it's hard to quantify. But how many years did he truly excel?
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) Joe Sewell - Needed a couple of more seasons. I find his strengths are similar to Nellie Fox’s, but Fox was better.
19) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
20) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
21) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
22) Bill Freehan – I did not realize how good he was until now. Might go higher in the future.
23)Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
24) Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
25) Orlando Cepeda-
26) Billy Pierce - Very good, never great.
27) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
28) Cupid Childs – Short career, not much black or grey ink.
29) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
30) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.


Roy White and Mickey Lolich are not top 50.
Ed Kranepool gets a mention for being an (almost) original Met.
George Scott gets a mention because he was the original Boomer.
Dock Ellis gets a mention because of the whole LSD story.
Merv Rettenmund gets a mention because I always liked his name.
The blowhard who caught for the Cardinals and Phillies and ruins every baseball game he broadcasts does not get a mention.
   71. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 14, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#2177120)
1983, er, I mean 1984 ballot.

1. Jose Mendez: Dominant peak/prime with less career.

2. Bucky Walters: Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. I like peak in my pitchers.

3. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available.

4. Charley Jones: Best left fielder available. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

5. Bill Freehan: Outstanding catcher of the 1960s, and a clear HOMer in my book. His peak, prime, and career are all plenty strong for his position, and are more impressive than the ballyhooed tandem of Lombardi and Schang. In comparison to the Duke of Trallee, his peak is very slightly lower, but his prime and career slightly higher. Given Duke’s OF work, I prefer Freehan.

6. Roger Bresnahan: Outstanding catcher-hybrid candidate. Good peak, especially for the position, and a robust offensive game. Bresnahan nq Freehan.

7. Billy Pierce: Wonderful 1950s ace pitcher. The innings may seem low, but I believe it is, in some part, due to his frequent use as a fireman. Lots o’ leverage there, plus he was an excellently effective moundsman.

8. Tony Mullane: Again with the unfair labor practice guys! Mullane racked up great seasons in the 1880s, got a one-year booting, continued racking up great seasons, pitched well in the 1890s NL, and looks a heckuva lot better than Mickey Welch to me.

9. Wilbur Cooper: One of those lefties that Jimmy Sheckard probably had trouble with. If only we had the PbP data to know! Dominant NL portsider of the 1910s-early 1920s.

10. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman available. Shaped like a hydrant, hit like a monster with some indication that park killed power. Absolutely dominant at his position throughout the 1890s.

11. Ned Williamson: Outstanding third baseman and a potent hitter of the 1880s. Probably the best 3B over the span 1878-1885, and then among the best SS in the game for a couple years after that.

12. Hugh Duffy: Best centerfielder available (sorry Mike!!!). His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Roush gang. [Note this is likely to change soon. I'm involved in a very long term re-eval, but the results won't be completely relfected in my ballot for a while. that said, I'm thinking about this placement and roush's placement carefully for future ballots.]

13. Elston Howard: Best catcher on the board...no. Best black catcher on the board...no. Best multi-position catcher on the board...no. Best catcher who played in the NgL on the board...No. OK, he's just real good, OK? Great peak, best catcher in AL for a few years running, MVP caliber seasons, all good stuff.

14. Tommy Leach: Career-based CF/3B candidate. As a CF, just out, as a 3B, decently well in, as a combo, he’s barely in.

15. Pete Browning: Great hitter. Period.


Others:
Joe Sewell: Forever on the fringes.

Ralph Kiner: Not impressed. I mean I am, but I’m not. How’s he much better than Minnie Minoso?

Minnie Minoso: How’s he much better than Ralph Kiner? He’s Dwight Evans and that’s probably not enough for my tastes. His MiL credit and NgL credit are ultimately helpful but not case-making information. They only take him one slot above Lou Brock, and that’s not good enough.

Rube Waddell: Mass confusion on this guy. Ultimately I don’t see him as impressive within context. His flakiness is sort of like Allen’s I guess, so I don’t literally hold it against him.

New others:
Hunter and Lolich: very similar value overall, but with Cat’s value in a smaller group of seasons. Neither is particularly close to my ballot, but rather back there around Waddell, Larry Jackson, and those types of guys. HOVG.

Munson: Better than Eric Munson…. Seriously, an outstanding backstop, but with or without the death problem wouldn’t have been racking up much career value. As-is, his peak doesn’t compete terribly well with Ellie Howard or Raj Bresnahan (outfielding noted), and so he’s back there in the shuffle.

White: near HOVG type player. I don’t think he was likely as good as Rice, but it’s closer than you think it ought to be.

Brock: Not better than Minnie Minoso, and Minnie’s not on my ballot. Seriously, he and Sam Rice are in many senses comparable players, and I don’t think either of them has any business in the HOM. Being famous for low-run strategies and cashing in the opportunities that being a low-patience, decent-average leadoff man afford for 3000 hits is great, but it doesn’t mean he’s among the 18-22 best LFs ever. No way. The job is too full of guys who could hit more if not more often and Brock doesn’t even own the defensive prowess to make it tough to figure. I don’t know if he was Lonnie Smith out there (I suspect in that vein), but it doesn’t add any cache to his case, cache which could slide him by close guys like Minoso. Anyway, he’s famous, which is why he’s in the Coop, but he’s not meritorious enough to have my vote.
   72. sunnyday2 Posted: September 14, 2006 at 10:08 PM (#2177191)
As for Hugh Duffy and the other '90s guys: Remember we elected 1 or 2 in those days. Now that we are electing 3, if we only elect newbies (post-Great War) there could be a perceived imbalance there. It remains to be seen if that is the consensus, but certainly many individual voters believe that some worthy old-timers got missed along the way. And who's to say that's wrong (aside from the HoM consensus as a whole)?
   73. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 14, 2006 at 10:29 PM (#2177211)
1983, er, I mean 1984 ballot.

That should read

1983, er, I mean 1984 ballot, er I mean 1985 ballot.
   74. Howie Menckel Posted: September 15, 2006 at 12:32 AM (#2177319)
1985 ballot, our (and my) 88th ballot.

Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
OF fielding I find is a little overrated among the voters.

I had electees Joe Torre at No. 3 and Brooks Robinson at No. 4 last 'year.'
I am not voting for any of the newcomers.

1. RALPH KINER - His competitiveness with Kaline over his top 9 years and even with Killebrew for a long stretch as well helps keep him climb to the top slot for the first time. Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
2. BILLY PIERCE - Moved up four slots 2 years ago to 'elect-me' as we continue to see few rivals in post-WW II pitching. Bob Gibson-lite, if you ask me. Put up a good fight with Marichal in recent years, but the Dominican Dandy's seasonal durability won the day. Pierce's leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.
3. JAKE BECKLEY - I've noted on the Brock thread how thoroughly Beckley crushes Lou. WS is spectacularly wrong on that count, so much so that it should cause those favoring the metric to rethink it a bit, imo. Kiner finally overtook him on my ballot a few yrs ago, and it's tough for Jake to handle some of the new borderliners.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (it was a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters.

4. CUPID CHILDS - This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support. Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better.
5. RUBE WADDELL - Bumped up 7 slots in the last 3 ballots as I rethink him. Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, never led his league in IP and only in the top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But the 2nd-best P on the ballot.
6. NELLIE FOX - His highest slot ever, by 4 spots. Clearly the best of an era, clearly underrated, and looking more and more unique to me. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends.
7. BOB ELLIOTT - My HOM in-out line may well be right here. If you haven't examined him in a while, or ever, get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
8. MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but I'm disappointed to see that such negligible Negro Leagues credit is due. I thought he was a better player there than we discovered. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
9. BOB JOHNSON - Moved back onto my ballot a few yrs ago after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
10. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot 3 yrs ago, still hanging on. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.
11. BILL FREEHAN - His remarkably similar numbers to Munson give me pause. A better all-around defensive catcher, I think, but Munson has some great CS pctages. He survived a faceoff with Bresnahan and Schang (see Torre thread), but I'm still mulling him vs guys like Lombardi. Two spectacular seasons (1967-68) and four other very good ones. 1974 is a little odd; the 137 OPS+ looks great but he is a 1B-C that year. The 105-106 OPSs in 1969-70 are good for a catcher, too, and he gets a fielding bonus even by catcher standards.11 times an All-Star, a big number.
12. BEN TAYLOR - A bit of a flyer here, but has a long career, a little pitching bonus, a little fielding bonus, a little Hall of Fame bonus - just enough to sneak onto my ballot, possibly for only the second time. Worth a look.
13. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Off my ballot for a long time, then on a while, off for five years, and now back this year. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
14. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite who finally battles his way back onto the ballot. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
15. JOSE MENDEZ - I knew vote for him someday. I reread his whole thread several yrs ago (it's long). I am satisfied as to Mendez being able to pitch to a level of a HOMer at his best, but until now there hasn't been quite enough there for me. I won't complain when he gets elected.


TOP 10 RETURNEES
JOE SEWELL - I prefer great-hitting SSs, or long-career ones, or great fielding ones at least. Sewell is a HOVG SS-3B, and Pie Traynor was a better INF who gets little love.

NEWBIES
THURMAN MUNSON - Closest one to my ballot. He and Freehan are so close that I have not yet signed off on that one for good. Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Could well battle onto my ballot, as he always battled everything else.
LOU BROCK - I agree that his baserunning and World Series exploits give him a boost. But he is SO far behind that it doesn't help. He also doesn't get any boost from fielding. Funny that people would say Beckley has no peak. In truth, Brock and Sam Rice are the peakless wonders. This may be Win Shares' most egregious effort, up there with Hugh Duffy.
CATFISH HUNTER - I was stunned to see how short and un-lofty his peak was, remembering his career. But this was a high-IP, high-W era for SPs, and he really didn't stand out at all. Much of his fame came due to the pre-cable era - we never got to see many similarly talented pitchers because their teams weren't as good. Also, Hunter was on the HOF and HOM path in his 20s, but sadly he ran out of gas way too soon.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
ORLANDO CEPEDA - Cepeda was a textbook All-Star hitter for his day, and unlike Kaline and especially Clemente he was a stud from Day 1. Seems to have been a good 1B in his day (I mostly just remember him as an end-career DH with the Red Sox). At this point, not penalizing him for refusing to move positions to help his team - for this fact, Derek Jeter is grateful, lol.
GAVVY CRAVATH - Have voted for him for many years, but we just have so many sluggers now. I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Our first DHer on a ballot. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135.
NORM CASH - My gripe is that he often had 100 fewer PA (adjusting for pre-expansion guys) than the competition each year. Good 1B and very reliable when in the lineup, but he's the first one to really confound my OPS+ lists. While they're just a get-started point anyway, in Cash's case I needed to make more adjustments than usual. Still might fight his way onto the ballot someday, however.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but if the ballot ever thins it's inevitable he may reappear.
   75. Mike Webber Posted: September 15, 2006 at 01:59 AM (#2177396)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

I read the “Further adventures of Slugger McBat” by W.P. Kinsella this week. For some reason I thought this was a children’s book, rather than a book of short stories. Very good, highly recommend. Though some of the stories were a little of a downer.


1) BILL FREEHAN – If I had the choice between Torre and Freehan, I’d take Freehan, but I’m glad both are getting in.
2) EDD ROUSH –Andrew Siegel calls him the 16 best Centerfielder in Baseball History, including Negro Leaguers and those active in 2006. Sunnyday-Marc has him 13th or 14th among all eligible centerfielders including Negro Leaguers. Dr. C has him 11th in his system – though it does not include Negro Leaguers.
3) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
4) KEN BOYER – Of the great Cardinals of the 1960’s, I wonder how many at the time figured Boyer was better than Cepeda or Brock?
5) JIMMY WYNN – Solid player in the wrong environment (both era and field) to rack up black ink or traditional counting numbers.
6) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
7) MINNIE MINOSO – Paired with Kiner, but just behind him.
8) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
9) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
10) LOU BROCK – As a career voter I’ll put him here, but am not 100% comfortable with it.
11) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era.
12) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
13) ALE OMS Re-read his ballot, and his arguments are very persuasive.
14) BULEIGH GRIMES I have problems with pitchers, who seem to be at the top of my ballot or off the ballot. I like Grimes career stats.
15) Orlando Cepeda - 3rd of the 1960’s Cardinals on my ballot.

Disclosures – Pierce, Mendez and Waddell – Mendez, Mays, Pierce and Grimes are my top pitchers.– I’d rather have Vic Willis among pitchers turn of the century pitchers than Waddell.

Joe Sewell – Ranks behind Maranville and Stephens and maybe Long and Fregosi

Cupid Childs – behind Doyle and Lazzeri in my rankings.

Quincy Trouppe – The top 3 Negro League catchers I am pretty sure are Gibson, Santop and Mackey. I’m not sure Trouppe is 4th on the list. It could be him or it might be Petway, or Double Duty with his pitching credit, or Joe Greene or Frank Duncan.

Newbies – Munson has an argument, but I’d place him behind Freehan, Bresnahan, Howard and dead even with Schang and Lombardi.
Lolich and Catfish aren’t in my top 10 pitchers at this point. White is about 6th among LF-ers.
   76. yest Posted: September 15, 2006 at 03:38 AM (#2177451)
1985 ballot

Maz ,Roy Thomas and Brock make my PHOM this year

1. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
10. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
11. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
12. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
13. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
14. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
15. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
16. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
17. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
18. Bill Freehan great fielder and good power (made my personal HoM in 1984)
19. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
25. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (makes my personal HoM this year)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most(makes my personal HoM this year)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
37. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
38. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
39. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe League stats seem to show he lacked
Billy Pierce not good enough long enough
Cupid Childs is in my top 100
Jimmy Wynn please read post 141 on his page
   77. Rob_Wood Posted: September 15, 2006 at 04:11 AM (#2177462)
1985 ballot from this highly career voter:

1. Jake Beckley - luv the career
2. Cupid Childs - dominating second baseman during the 1890s
3. George Van Haltren - another deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
4. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
5. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
6. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
7. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop
8. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
9. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
10. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
11. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
12. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
13. Joe Sewell - very good shortstop (best in league)
14. Jose Mendez - one of the best negro league pitchers
15. Luis Aparicio - my career value perspective shows here
-----
16-20. Minoso, Traynor, Freehan, Klein, Pierce

Not voting for Waddell (I like him, but have him around 30th); Brock is the only
newbie who I considered and he comes in around 100th (his value is around guys like
Brett Butler, Vada Pinson, Willie Davis, Steve Garvey, Bobby Murcer).
   78. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 15, 2006 at 05:59 AM (#2177489)
"I do not generally give alot of credit to minor league, miltary leave or alien abductions."


Military "leave"? That makes it sound like they made a choice to take "vacation". Comparing it to alien abductions?

I'm a peace flako, honest . . . but for some reason that offends the hell out of me.

I guess all of those guys born in the late teens and early twenties just weren't as durable as the those from every other generation, that's why they have those big gaps in the middle of their careers. Definitely wouldn't want to account for that, right?

Sorry to pick on you rico . . . but I've said it before and I'll say it again - the only major regret I have from this project is not forcing voters to give military credit just like we forced them to give Negro League credit. Some great research could have been done in that area too, but it appears we've missed the boat there.
   79. Rusty Priske Posted: September 15, 2006 at 01:19 PM (#2177559)
I generally don't give war 'credit'.

However, I don't think you need to and still me fair. What I do is that I refuse to punish for the time missed. Since I am a career voter, I just rate the player on his shorter career, without docking him for it. (If that makes sense.)

I realize this is harder to do for peak voters, but peak voters are all crazy anyway. :)
   80. sunnyday2 Posted: September 15, 2006 at 01:46 PM (#2177582)
If player X plays 12 years of ML ball and spends 1943-44-45 in the military

And player Y players 15 years of ML ball including 1943-44-45

You don't "dock" player X, but he doesn't get any credit for 1943-44-45. How is this not "punishing" him for the 3 years of mil service? How is this not disadvantaging to that player?
   81. rico vanian Posted: September 15, 2006 at 04:13 PM (#2177703)
Yeah- bad terminology on my part- i meant to say military service, but it came out military leave. d'oh!

However, my argument is that by "assuming" the player would have had a consistant level of production if they weren't fighting for our country also "assumes" that they would not have been injured, traded to a team where their stats would have suffered, or just plain performed poorly.

And I am not comfortable dealing in assumptions.
   82. Chris Cobb Posted: September 15, 2006 at 04:37 PM (#2177728)
And I am not comfortable dealing in assumptions.

Is it not a huge assumption on your part that the player who misses time due to military service is less meritorious than another player whose career is otherwise similar to that of the first player, except that this second player did not miss time due to military service?

In most cases, it is a reasonable assumption that a player who didn't play is less meritorious than a player who did. In the case of military servie, however, that assumption is unreasonable.

To give reasonable credit for military service, you need not "assume" the palyer would have had a consistent level of production. You can include an uncertainty discount, you can plot a career curve, you vary the production upwards and downwards year by year to simulate typical variations in performance levels.

But something you can't reasonably do is claim that you aren't dealing in assumptions by not giving credit for time lost to military service.
   83. SWW Posted: September 15, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#2177802)
A little bit of juggling. Interesting year, 1985. I still remember my dad endeavoring to explain to me why the people booing Joaquin Andujar weren’t behaving that much better than Joaquin.

<u>1985 Ballot</u>
1) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A missing link in our recognition of baseball at the end of the deadball era and at the start of live ball. I was intrigued by the assertion that Grimes is “the Jake Beckley of pitchers”. I disagree. Grimes has some legitimate highs; he beats Beckley on Black Ink 38 to 1. I feel like a more apt comparison for Beckley might be Mickey Welch. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I bumped him up a notch, as I’m starting to recognize how unique a second baseman of his caliber is at this point in the game. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
3) Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
That’s no knock against Minnie, though. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
4) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
5) Carl William Mays
I’m coming to believe that Carl is really one of the overlooked greats of the mound. I think if he’d had one huge season, he’d have easily gone in ahead of Lemon or Ferrell. In fact, I’m a little baffled by the love for Billy Pierce when Mays has equal or better numbers for his career, and with two fewer seasons.
6) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Looking at other infielders of the day, he’s very good. Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position. 5 Top 10 WS seasons are nothing at which to sneeze.
7) William Ashley Freehan
Wow, I haven’t been this surprised by a player in I don’t know how long. Stands far apart from the crowd, with Bresnahan and Schang the best of the lingering backstops. Three times in the AL WS Top 10, and those 11 All-Star appearances clearly mark him as one of the pre-eminent catchers of his day.
8) Hugh Duffy
Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time. I dropped him a bit, though, because the peakishness of his career does not thrill me, when compared with Mays, Boyer, and Freehan.
9) Louis Clark Brock
Wow. I think it’s possible that WS overrate him (interesting to note that Bill James did not list him among his Top 100). And there are additional players, like George Van Haltren or Mickey Welch, who have a comparable number of career WS and don’t appear on my ballot. However, I remain a career voter at heart, and he ranks well over the long run. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons (134 and 3, respectively) far outstrip some of the guys he’s being compared to, like Jake Beckley and Sam Rice. I’m still listening to everyone’s arguments, but I feel he’s earned a spot on my ballot. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
11) José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
It remains very hard to get a handle on these guys. They both represent this bizarre mix of career and peak numbers, and my support for Mays makes me think they should be higher, but I just can’t figure out how good they really were. They will probably both get elected before I ever fully figure them out.
12) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
13) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
14) George Edward Waddell – “Rube”
On the list of things I never thought I’d do again, vote for Waddell is high on the list. I’ve always been wary of his tremendous peak and his reliance on strikeouts. Still an undeniable talent, especially considering how difficult it was to corral. 97th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
15) Ralph McPherran Kiner
I’ve really raised my opinion of Kiner, along with that of Chuck Klein (who I definitely have in the next five). The shortness of the career still troubles me, but I understand the reasons for that, and he definitely made a significant impact in the time he was healthy. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Joseph Wheeler Sewell
I’m pretty sure that if I had to have a shortstop on my ballot, it would be Vern Stephens. Fortunately, I don’t have to have a shortstop on my ballot. These guys, along with Maranville and Aparicio, are very good. I just don’t think any of them is among the 15 best eligible for a vote. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
Clarence Algernon Childs – “Cupid”
I was trying to figure out why he would be so high on the ballot, and then I saw his highest similarity score: Hughie Jennings. Oh. Still, Fox and Doyle strike me as having a greater impact against their competition, and have far superior career numbers.
Walter William Pierce – “Billy”
Grimes beats Pierce on career WS, prime WS, peak WS, Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards…and yet Pierce is in the top 10 while Grimes struggles to stay in the top 30. Um…okay. We’ll disagree, then.
   84. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 15, 2006 at 06:44 PM (#2177857)
Military "leave"? That makes it sound like they made a choice to take "vacation". Comparing it to alien abductions?

Joe, I think we should leave the alien abductions for mulder and scully (Kelly). :-)
   85. sunnyday2 Posted: September 15, 2006 at 08:09 PM (#2177956)
>And I am not comfortable dealing in assumptions.

Bill James responded to this by saying--it's an assumption that Ted Williams was a great baseball player in 1943-44-45? It's an assumption that Phil Rizzuto was a ML-caliber SS in those years? etc. etc.

No way. We know that they were what they were. We are not assuming anything.

What we are doing (in not giving any credit for years spent in the military) is punishing the player who happened to be born at a certain time (relative to other players) for something that was utterly outside of his control. What he could control (becoming and being a ML baseball player) he did.

Why not just say that NeLers didn't play in the MLs so screw them too? Same thing.
   86. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 15, 2006 at 09:30 PM (#2178043)
However, my argument is that by "assuming" the player would have had a consistant level of production if they weren't fighting for our country also "assumes" that they would not have been injured, traded to a team where their stats would have suffered, or just plain performed poorly.

The crux of this argument says that a player could have had an injury which
a) casued him to lose significant time (call it 1/2 year or more) in any single season
b) caused his career to end.

This seems like an area we might be able to research effectively. For instance, we could use a five or ten year period around the player's career to see how many players at his position had a career ending injury or missed >X games in a season. This would establish baselines for both these contingencies, which would form the basis for a discount applied to whatever MLE/credit system each voter uses for players at war.

I'll work on this question over the weekend and see what I can come up with.
   87. Juan V Posted: September 16, 2006 at 12:31 AM (#2178265)
I´ll be looking forward to see what can come from that. I do give military credit, but I finde it hard to assume that a player would have been near the top of his form during his military absence years, so I use it as somewhat of a "career filler", with very few exceptions (Keller, for example). Maybe it´s because of my conservative nature in this matters.
   88. Rick A. Posted: September 16, 2006 at 12:35 AM (#2178279)
Rick A. - If you like pitcher peaks, where's Lefty Gomez?

Actually, I seem to have missed him when I did a pitcher re-evaluation about a decade ago.

That being said, while he does have a nice peak, it's not long or high enough to make my ballot. After re-evaluation, he seems comparable to Tommy Bridges, Dizzy Trout and Lon Warneke.
   89. sunnyday2 Posted: September 16, 2006 at 01:18 AM (#2178335)
The idea that a player would have been injured in 1943-44-45 is an assumption also.
   90. Howie Menckel Posted: September 16, 2006 at 01:40 AM (#2178373)
"Walter William Pierce – “Billy”
Grimes beats Pierce on career WS, prime WS, peak WS, Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards…and yet Pierce is in the top 10 while Grimes struggles to stay in the top 30. Um…okay. We’ll disagree, then."

Another 'triumph' for WS.
Or not.
   91. Brent Posted: September 16, 2006 at 04:16 AM (#2178586)
1985 Ballot:

I’ve not been looking forward to these backlog elections. On this year’s ballot, only my top two candidates seem like clear (albeit, bottom quartile) HoMers—the rest all represent borderline mixtures of strengths and weaknesses. While I can look forward to electing a few old favorites over the next few elections, I know in a few cases I’ll also end up holding my nose.

Although this year’s entering class isn’t as weak as last year’s, only Lou Brock came close to making my ballot. Dick Allen, Jimmy Wynn, and Billy Herman made my personal hall of merit.

1. Bill Freehan – He’s certainly the best eligible catcher, and looking ahead two or three decades, I’m confident that we won’t regret electing him. (PHoM 1984)

2. Orestes Miñoso – I have no doubts regarding his HoM worthiness. As I’ve argued here, Miñoso’s qualifications are quite comparable to the other corner outfielders of the HoM’s fourth quartile—Sheckard, Wheat, Goslin, and Slaughter. Furthermore, no candidate with qualifications similar to Miñoso’s has been passed over. A great five-tool player (maybe we should call him a “six-tool player” for his ability to get on base through walks or HBP), he earned 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. (PHoM 1970)

3. Phil Rizzuto – I guess I’m his best friend. I recognize that his case depends too much on characteristics that can’t be precisely quantified for me ever to convince most of you of his merit-worthiness. I’ve been charged with overestimating his defense, but somehow the Yankees managed to win 10 pennants during his 13 seasons—pennants won at least as much with defense as with offense, and with pitching staffs that (with the exception of Ford) sometimes looked pretty wimpy compared to the other top AL staffs. (PHoM 1967)

4. Hugh Duffy – Giving him some credit for his team’s non-Pythagorean wins has never bothered me. In almost every close game, we see teams following strategies that are designed to sacrifice total runs scored (or risk more runs allowed) in the pursuit of non-Pythagorean victories. So I think it’s safe to assume that non-Pythagorean wins are a mixture of skill and luck, and if researchers haven’t been able to identify the skill component yet, they just haven’t been clever enough. If there was a period when the skill should have been most evident, it was during the 1890s when progressive teams like the Beaneaters were pioneering baseball strategy. (PHoM 1931)

5. Jimmy Wynn – Spending most of his career outside the spotlight, it’s easy to forget how good he was. (PHoM 1985)

6. José de la Caridad Méndez – I believe he’s been on my ballot every election since he first became eligible in 1932. For a while he looked like a lost cause. Could this finally be the year? (PHoM 1938)

7. Alejandro Oms – He used to draw quite a bit of support, but recently it has started to wane. Are people just starting to forget about the Negro League candidates? Oms compares well to any of the eligible center field candidates. Check out the Oms thread. (PHoM 1967)

8. Nellie Fox – Like Rizzuto, Fox contributed with both the glove and the bat over a fairly long career. 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. The 1950s are underrepresented, and Fox would be a fine addition to the HoM. (PHoM 1979)

9. Mickey Welch – I don’t see his case being made as either a great career candidate (despite 307 career wins) or as a great peak candidate (despite a 44-win season). Instead, like most of the pitchers I like, his strength is an impressive prime of about 7 seasons during which he was regularly one of the best pitchers in baseball. (PHoM 1966)

10. Ken Boyer – I’m not really sure why his candidacy hasn’t caught on, but he’s the best available 3B candidate. Five Gold Glove awards; MVP for 1964. (PHoM 1975)

11. Bucky Walters – Another pitcher with some big seasons, a nice prime, and the ability to contribute with the bat. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

12. Dobie Moore – The best hitter among serious shortstop candidates and regarded as one of the finest defensive shortstops of his time. Among the short career, high peak candidates, I think his is the best case.

13. Dizzy Dean – 100 percent pure peak – no filler added. (PHoM 1958)

14. Elston Howard – When he was actually catching, he was the best eligible catcher. The only reason he doesn’t rank higher is because of several seasons when he couldn’t catch. (PHoM 1977)

15. Dick Redding – His pitching prime came during a poorly documented era, making it hard to rank him. I have him ranked here based more on the opinions of researchers I respect than on any particular statistical evidence. (PHoM 1976)

Near misses:

16-20. F Howard, Cravath (PHoM 1976), Brock, Cepeda, Grimes (PHoM 1940)
21–25. Newcombe, Keller, Bresnahan, Leach (PHoM 1932), Easter

Other consensus top 10:

Joe Sewell – Despite my arguments against him, he’s really not such a terrible candidate. I just hate to see him go in for the wrong reasons.

Ralph Kiner – Back when Beckley and Van Haltren used to lead the backlog and I supported players like Jennings, I used to describe myself as a “peak/prime voter.” Since then the electorate has swung pretty far toward peak voters, and I find myself leaning the other direction, preferring the guys with slightly less peak but quite a bit more career such as Howard, Cravath, and Cepeda.

Billy Pierce – For me, Newcombe is the next in line among 1950s pitchers.

Rube Waddell – In context, Walters and Dean were much more impressive.

Cupid Childs – Again, I find myself preferring a candidate with a longer career and more defensive value (Fox).

Other new arrivals:

Lou Brock (ranked # 18) – the HoM needs a few of these guys who were good at setting the table in addition to the guys who were good at clearing it.

Thurman Munson (ranked # 33) – a few weeks ago I predicted that among Freehan, Torre, Munson, and Simmons, the HoM would find room for three of them. It looks like Munson is the odd man out. There’s not room for everyone.

Roy White (ranked # 43) – I probably will rank Rice a little bit lower.

Catfish Hunter (ranked # 74) and Mickey Lolich (ranked # 92) – A couple of memorable pitchers.
   92. mulder & scully Posted: September 16, 2006 at 06:13 AM (#2178671)
Used to be Kelly in SD

1985 Ballot:

To recap my balloting:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.

PHOM: 1985: Frank Chance, Wilbur Cooper, and Ralph Kiner
PHOM: 1984: Billy Williams and Jimmy Wynn
PHOM: 1983: Bill Freehan and Brooks Robinson
PHOM: 1982: Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson
PHOM: 1981: Bob Gibson and Harmon Killebrew
PHOM: 1980: Al Kaline, Juan Marichal, and Ron Santo
PHOM: 1979: Willie Mays and Gavy Cravath

1. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): The weight of the evidence.

2. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906): The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1980, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
Top 10 position player in 1876, 1878, 1879, 1883, 1884, 1885. Eleventh in 1877. Pro-rated 10th or 11th after blacklisted in 1880. Blacklisted in 1881 and 1882. Best player in 1884, top 4 in 1878, 1879 and 1885.

3. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921): Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

4. Charlie Keller (PHOM 1957): MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979. Top 10 position player in AL in 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, and 1946. If you pro-rate his 1945 season, he is top 10 that year also. Ranks: 10th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th. 1945 pro-rated he comes out the best position player along with Greenberg.

5. Quincy Troupe (PHOM 1960): A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 1980.

6. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919): A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. I need to post that to the Duffy thread soon. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

7. Jose Mendez (PHOM 1967): From 1910 to 1914, only Johnson and Alexander were better. A gigantic peak. Top 10 in majors in 1910, top 5 pitcher in 1911 to 1914 in majors.

8. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958): Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

9. Cupid Childs (PHOM 1932): Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close. 11th all-time among second basemen. Top 10 position player in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, and 1896. 1st in AA, 9th, 2nd, 8th, and 7th in NL.

10. Bill Freehan (PHOM 1983): Best catcher in AL 6 times. Best in majors 3 times. 5 times in the top 10 position players in the AL. 5 win shares gold gloves. He hit with power, he walked, he was a great defensive player. What’s not to like.

11. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966): Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).

12. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979): Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis.

13. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942): Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906.

14. Dobie Moore (PHOM 1967): Banks before Banks. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1980 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers. Best SS, if in majors, in 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924, and 1925.

15. Jimmy Wynn (PHOM 1984): 4 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors. Best centerfielder eligible from Mays until ... Dale Murphy? Five years after Griffey, Jr. retires? Top 10 in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, and 1974. 9th, 3rd, 4th, 11th, 6th, 4th.
   93. mulder & scully Posted: September 16, 2006 at 06:17 AM (#2178672)
<u>16. George Burns (PHOM 1938)</u>: Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.
<u>17. Roush (PHOM 1940)</u>: PHOM for years. 3 MVP type years, excellent defense.
<u>18. Kiner (PHOM 1985)</u>: Just a hair behind Burns for 3rd best LF on my board.
<u>19. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964)</u>: Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.
20. Minoso: Did not place quite as high in his league as Burns and Kiner did.
<u>21. Chance (PHOM 1985)</u>: Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig.
22: Norm Cash: somewhere in here. Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Even with the missed games.
<u>23. Redding (PHOM 1975)</u>: Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years.
<u>24. Grimes (PHOM 1961)</u>: Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
<u>25. Cooper, Wilbur (PHOM 1985)</u>: He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
26. Bresnahan: I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era.
27. Doyle: Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired.
28. Frank Howard: Just slightly below the left field knot 18-21.
29. Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.
30. Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder.
31. Don Newcombe: Credit for minor league years, NeL years, and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great.
32. Rosen: What if...
33. Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense.
<u>34. Van Haltren (PHOM 1939)</u>: Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
35. Elston Howard: I kept overlooking him. I don’t know what to do about balancing his actual value to the team compared with his opporunity issues: Korea, race, playing behind Berra.
36. Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there.
37. Cepeda: A little behind Cash. Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
38. Pierce: Great rates, but like many in the AL 1950s, lacks big innings pitched. While a managerial decision over which he had no control, it does prevent him from racking up a lot of value. Ranks 7th in his decade.
39. Waddell: Does not have as many big years as the other great pitchers of his era. Lacks the innings pitched totals that other HoM pitchers of his era had. No credit for minor league time because he jumped his teams. He went to the minors on his own.
40. Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
41. Schang: I see the arguments
42. Stivetts: 4th best pitcher in the 1890s. Trouble was he pitched right as the distance changed and he was worked to death to start his career.
43. Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
44. Fournier: Remember to give him credit for the White Sox screwing up.
45. Maglie: Credit for Mexican League helps
46. Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding.
47. Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw
48. Scales: Pretty good player. Will probably move up after I adjust for Hall of Fame’s new numbers.
49. Hippo Vaughn: Excellent peak, but not enough career in the majors.
50 McGraw: Just not healthy enough.
51. Sewell: A good player, but just a little short. The best shortstops were all black during his career.
52. Thurman Munson: Career wasn’t long enough and peak wasn’t high enough. Remember, this is the era of the longer-playing, higher-achieving-peak catchers: Bench, Simmons, Torre, Freehan, Fisk.
53. Lon Warneke: A good peak, but not as high as Dean and his career is not long enough.
54. Berger: Not enough prime years for me.
55. Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.
56. Elliott: I need to review his candidacy
57. Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
58. Jones, F: Excellent defender. Stats are hard to difficult to understand because fo the context:
59/60. Denny Lyons / Ed Williamson: Two excellent third basemen of a bygone era.

Others:
Lou Brock: Lowish peak, lowish prime, and long career players just do not do well in my system. Not in my top 75.
Roy White: Good peak and prime, but career was not long enough and peak and prime not high enough. Not in my top 75.
Catfish Hunter: 13th best pitcher of the 1970s is not good enough to make my ballot. If only the arm didn’t blow out.
Mickey Lolich: 14th best pitcher of the 1970s is not good enough to make my ballot. If only he didn’t get his kneecap broken.
   94. rawagman Posted: September 16, 2006 at 06:55 AM (#2178677)
Mulder - question about your PHOM. How can you elect Cooper when you have Minoso and Cash rated ahead of him and not in?
Also, I have bumped up the Duffy thread - maybe this would be a good time to move over the Keltner list.
   95. Jeff M Posted: September 16, 2006 at 03:31 PM (#2178763)
I know that his reputation took a hit downward after the Hall of Fame vote which leaves me wondering why the voters take so much stock in the negative opinion about Redding but ignore the positive vote for Cooper, Day and Smith.

Or perhaps the HoF vote only confirmed what the Dick Redding thread already suggested. :)
   96. Jeff M Posted: September 16, 2006 at 03:41 PM (#2178769)
1985 Ballot

1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

2. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

3. Browning, Pete – Heproved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

4. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon in my system.

5. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on certain career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

6. Cravath, Gavvy – Still wary about what I’ve done with him.

7. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be. I can’t really read Joe Dimino’s chart on the pitching thread, but based on the comments, it appears Waddell comes out fine there too.

8. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position, I’ve given him the higher spot.

9. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhits the average itter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

10. Pierce, Billy – I think he is just on the wrong side of the HoM line, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

11. Boyer, Ken – A heck of a lot better than I thought.

12. Dean, Dizzy -- Hasn’t made the ballot in awhile, but with my re-evaluation of the Negro Leaguers at the top of the ballot, I realized I had Moore about 10 spots too high, and I had no business putting Bill Wright on the ballot. So a few oldies slide back in.

13. McGraw, John – Love the OBP.

14. Joss, Addie – No “dead credit.” His ballot spot is based on what he actually did while alive.

15. Cuyler, Kiki – Not sure if he’s ever been on my ballot, but I guess he’s been lingering close enough to temporarily make an appearance. Perhaps I should have Nellie Fox here.


Required Disclosure(s):

Mendez, Jose – He’s not in never never land like Redding, but he’s got a ways to go before making the ballot.

Freehan, Bill – I see him as a decent bat for a catcher, but not HoM quality. Perhaps I’m undervaluing his defense…easy to do for catchers I did not see play. I’d put him ahead of Torre in the rankings.

Kiner, Ralph – I’ve still got him as a short-career, weak-defending .274/.393/.539 guy. Wish he had played a couple more years.

Childs, Cupid – Reevaluated over and over, and still not close. I just don’t see it, and I don’t have anything more to add over and above what I’ve been saying since he first became eligible.
   97. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 16, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2178798)
1985 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

1) Bucky Walters
A slight adjustment of how I weight peak Win Shares nudges Walters up a tiny bit. In a backlog year, that’s enough to jump him up to #1.

2) Jose Mendez
I’m thinking Marichal might not be a bad comp for him, and it looks like Jose deserves to make the HoM, too.

3) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers—yet.

4) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

5) Ken Boyer
53.3 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is best among eligible hitters. Plus 102, WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

6) Bob Johnson
Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

7) Quincy Trouppe
For a while now I’ve ranked him as the best available among those who primarily played catcher—the catcher bonus makes that much higher praise. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

8) Joe Sewell
His top 5 WARP is close to Boyer (52.4), but his 5-yr. consecutive Win Shares are a little lower. Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.

9) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 47.4 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career: 88.4 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

10) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner and Howard for best top 3 seasons in Win Shares (unadjusted for season length) with 102. The extra war credit for Keller gets him a spot above Kiner.

11) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

12) Minnie Minoso
Longevity, mixed with modest peak and some NeL credit gives him the edge over Kiner.

13) Dobie Moore

14) Jim Wynn
100 WS in top 3 seasons rivals Kiner & Keller; 49.6 top 5 WARP3 is also in HoM-worthy territory. Greater career value puts him ahead of Kiner and on par with Keller (after WWII credit—the gap between spots 10 and 14 is miniscule).

15) Ralph Kiner
149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Billy Pierce—He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.
17) Burleigh Grimes
18) Buzz Arlett—I re-read his thread about three times and I’m more convinced he should be relatively close to the ballot, but, even in a weak year, I can’t bring myself to put him in the top 15.
19) Norm Cash
20) Jack Quinn
21) Tommy Leach
22) Gavy Cravath
23) Jake Beckley—Sorta close to the ballot due to career value, still, 37.6 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
24) Harry Hooper
25) Rabbit Maranville
26) Charley Jones
27) Jimmy Ryan
28) Bob Elliott
29) George Van Haltren
30) Sam Rice
31) Phil Rizzuto
32) Nellie Fox
33) Dick Bartell
34) Alejandro Oms
35) Orlando Cepeda
36) Vada Pinson
37) Fielder Jones
38) Lou Brock—A good player with unique skills, but not a HoMer.
39) Vern Stephens
40) Dom DiMaggio
41) Spotswood Poles
42) Gil Hodges
43) Rube Waddell—Small bonus for MiL play doesn’t move him all that close to the ballot. I feel like the bonus is justified mostly in that it makes up for what looks like an otherwise low IP career for his era.
44) Bill Freehan—Clearly a good, underrated player, but I credit Trouppe as better on career value and similar in peak value.
45) Willie Davis
46) Johnny Pesky
47) George Burns
48) Hugh Duffy
48) Cy Seymour
50) Mickey Vernon

Other Top Returnees Not in Top 50
73) Cupid Childs—I would like him better if his career value was a little higher. Still, there isn’t a huge gap between Childs down here and, say, Nellie Fox at 32.

New Guys in Top 100:
79) Roy White
96) Mickey Lolich
   98. karlmagnus Posted: September 16, 2006 at 10:16 PM (#2179047)
Jeff M, if Wheat and Sisler are good comps to Oms, then so's Beckley, whose career was when adjusted significantly longer (and who played 1B in the 1890s, single league, tough position, etc.) I regard Beckley as better, you may disagree, but I can't see how you can leave him out of the discussion.
   99. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 17, 2006 at 01:43 AM (#2179202)
1985 ballot

Quincey Trouppe, Brooks Robinson, and Bobby Doerr make my PHOM, Joe Torre and Rube Waddell are on deck.

1. Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) – Best peak on the board. If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.
2. Bill Freehan (x) – My system has him about even with Roy Campanella sans the NeL years. A little less peak, a little more prime. Of course, Freehan wasn’t as good as Campy because he didn’t have a number of solid years prior to making the majors, but this should tell you why I have him so high. The talk of him nto being as good as Lombardi is ridiculous.

3. Cupid Childs (3, PHOM) – I am pretty sure that Childs has been in my top five every years since sometime in the 1940’s. He had a great peak and decent career length for a MIer of his era. Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion.

4. Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections.

5. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

6. Ralph Kiner (6¸ PHOM) – Seven straight HR titles is impressive no matter what the context. Kiner has a great peak, however I prefer Keller’s combination of OBP and decent defense to Kiner’s power.

7. Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) – I had him slightly higher until new numbers showed that he more Ernie Banks without the decline phase than Hughie Jennings. Still, that is worthy of the HOM. Slightly better than Sisler in the peak department and I give Gorgeous George little credit for his post 1922 years.

8. Bucky Walters (8, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too.

9. Jimmy Wynn (10) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 25. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome.

10. Pete Browning (9, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me.

11. Quincey Trouppe (10) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Mackey was.

12. Rube Waddell (12) – I have him about even with Mendez but a little ahead based partly on a 15 point advantage in career ERA+ for Rube. However, he is the best player ever to leave an MLB game in order to chase a fire truck in all of baseball history.

13. Elston Howard (13) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

14. Dizzy Dean (11) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and may have even been a worse hitter. Still HOM worthy, however.

15. Ken Boyer (16) – Very good defensive 3Bman. I will admit that he is receiving a sort of 3B bonus, but if I did not give these out there would be very, very very few 3B in the HOM and I can’t justify that. Not much better than Elliot (#26) or Rosen (#18), but he was better.

16-20 Cravath, Mendez, Rosen, Oms, GVH
21-25 Pierce, Bresnahan, Fox, Berger, F. Howard
26-30 Doyle, McGraw, Willis, Shocker, Elliot
31-35 Newcombe, Roush, Rizzuot, Cepeda, Burns
36-40 Minoso, Chance, Munson, Veach, Sewell, Lundy
41-45 Lundy, Wilson, Bancroft, R.Thomas, Monroe,
46-50 Leach, Ryan, Klein, C. Jones, Stephens

Required Disclosures
Mendez – Just of ballot and roughly equal, though slightly inferior, to #12 Rube Waddell
Minoso – Very good player, but I just don’t see him as that different from a host of other corner outfield candidates like George Burns, Bobby Veach, and even Bob Johnson. If his NeL and MiL numbers were better he would have my support.
Sewell – Again I don’t’ see anything special. I guess you have to either buy WARP’s fielding #’s or like that he was the big fish in the small pond of AL SS’s in order to vote for him. Being the best AL SS of the 1920’s does not make one better than Phil Rizzuto.

Newbies
Brock - He is outside my top 60, after which I do not count. The Question of Brock v. Beckley is a good one and one that makes me not want to support either. WS like brock better, OPS+ like Beckley, I think they are pretty even and me having a preference isn't going to be saying much as neither are in my top 60.
   100. Brent Posted: September 17, 2006 at 03:09 AM (#2179229)
14. Dizzy Dean (11) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and may have even been a worse hitter.

Huh? Dean's OPS+ was +43 (above average for a pitcher) and Koufax's was –26.
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