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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, September 25, 2006

1986 Ballot

New candidates: Willie McCovey, Willie Horton, and Jose Cardenal.

Top-ten returnees: Billy Pierce, Rube Waddell, Ralph Kiner, Minnie Minoso, Cupid Childs, Ken Boyer, and Dobie Moore.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 25, 2006 at 12:09 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. SWW Posted: September 30, 2006 at 06:57 PM (#2192514)
Remember Mike Scott? Man, that was a clutch no-hitter. Good year.

<u>1986 Ballot</u>
1) Willie Lee McCovey – “Stretch”
A superior prime to anyone else on the ballot, huge career numbers, and the best of the available 1st basemen. A lot of home runs. Also, the roud namesake of a cove, and the rare player to be mentioned alongside the immortal Joe Shlabotnik in Peanuts. 26th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 56th on Sporting News Top 100. 62nd on SABR Top 100. 68th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 69th on Bill James Top 100. 65th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Never did manage to get him elected in his lifetime. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
Eventually moved him ahead of Minoso, as I’m starting to recognize how unique a second baseman of his caliber is at this point in the game. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
4) Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
That’s no knock against Minnie, though. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
5) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
6) Carl William Mays
I’m coming to believe that Carl is really one of the overlooked greats of the mound. I think if he’d had one huge season, he’d have easily gone in ahead of Lemon or Ferrell. In fact, I’m a little baffled by the love for Billy Pierce when Mays has equal or better numbers for his career, and with two fewer seasons.
7) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Looking at other infielders of the day, he’s very good. Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position. 5 Top 10 WS seasons are nothing at which to sneeze.
8) Hugh Duffy
Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time. I dropped him a bit, though, because the peakishness of his career does not thrill me, when compared with Mays, Boyer, and Freehan.
9) Louis Clark Brock
It’s possible that WS overrate him, and players like George Van Haltren or Mickey Welch have comparable career WS and don’t appear on my ballot. However, I remain a career voter at heart, and he ranks well over the long run. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons (134 and 3, respectively) far outstrip some of the guys he’s being compared to, like Jake Beckley and Sam Rice. I’m still listening to everyone’s arguments, but I feel he’s earned a spot on my ballot. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
It remains very hard to get a handle on these guys. They both represent this bizarre mix of career and peak numbers, and my support for Mays makes me think they should be higher, but I just can’t figure out how good they really were. They will probably both get elected before I ever fully figure them out.
11) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
12) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
13) George Edward Waddell – “Rube”
On the list of things I never thought I’d do again, vote for Waddell is high on the list. I’ve always been wary of his tremendous peak and his reliance on strikeouts. Still an undeniable talent, especially considering how difficult it was to corral. 97th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
14) Ralph McPherran Kiner
I’ve really raised my opinion of Kiner, along with that of Chuck Klein (who I definitely have in the next five). The shortness of the career still troubles me, but I understand the reasons for that, and he definitely made a significant impact in the time he was healthy. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
15) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Of the guys who are all career and no peak, he’s the one I would induct first. Great career numbers, and consistently the best position player on a very bad team for a very long time. That’s what separates him from guys like Beckley, Hooper, and Aparicio.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Walter William Pierce – “Billy”
Grimes beats Pierce on career WS, prime WS, peak WS, Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards…and yet Pierce is in the top 10 while Grimes struggles to stay in the top 30. Um…okay. We’ll disagree, then.
Clarence Algernon Childs – “Cupid”
I was trying to figure out why he would be so high on the ballot, and then I saw his highest similarity score: Hughie Jennings. Oh. Still, Fox and Doyle strike me as having a greater impact against their competition, and have far superior career numbers.
Walter Moore – “Dobie”
Reminds me of Hughie Jennings. I wasn’t that fond of his candidacy, either. An unfortunately short career, but a short career nonetheless.
   102. Howie Menckel Posted: October 01, 2006 at 12:39 AM (#2192890)
"I was trying to figure out why [Childs] would be so high on the ballot, and then I saw his highest similarity score: Hughie Jennings."

Please tell me that isn't a serious part of your (or anyone else's evaluation) of Childs.

Jennings played 7 full seasons to 11 for Childs, and had 700 fewer ABs in spite of playing in an era of longer seasons.

Childs also played his whole career at 2B, while more than 25 pct of Jennings' career was spent at 1B (the rest at SS, which I can live with in that one comparison to Childs of course).

Jennings was a force of nature from 1895-98 (arguably the game's best player at that time).
Childs' case is not high-peak at all - but long-prime-for-the-era, with seven OPS+s above 120 at a time when the demands of the position and the brutality of the game make his career not so "short" at all. If anyone voted both of them high or low, it would be an utter coincidence.

Other than the "just for fun" parlor game that is "most similar player," I have no idea why anyone would compare Childs to Jennings.
One might just as well note that Childs' most similar player at ages 23, 26, and 28-31 is inner-circle guy Eddie Collins (true, you can look it up), and rank Childs No. 1 for THAT reason.

This is one of those times I wish similarity scores were never invented; it's as bad as the saves rule, in its own way.
   103. Howie Menckel Posted: October 01, 2006 at 12:40 AM (#2192893)
P.S., the difference in career PA for Jennings vs Childs is about 6700 to 5600, or 1100 PA.
   104. Howie Menckel Posted: October 01, 2006 at 12:54 AM (#2192910)
I should add that my comments are meant in the longterm spirit of challenges to comments posted, as opposed to deliberately trying to rile somebody up (and I'll bounce it to discussion thread if there's much to be said about it).
   105. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 01, 2006 at 01:39 AM (#2192942)
This is one of those times I wish similarity scores were never invented; it's as bad as the saves rule, in its own way.

I'd rather have a warning label at stating that similarity scores shouldn't be taken at face value.
   106. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 01, 2006 at 01:52 AM (#2192948)
Some more tinkering with my system propels many of my pitchers upward (including a previously ignored top-ten returnee for decades somewhat), and a 19th century outfielder.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Willie McCovey-1B/LF (n/e): Amazing career numbers considering how often he was injured (not to mention being platooned early in his career). Yes, he played until his early forties, but if he had only been reasonably healthy…wow! Peak ain't bad, either. :-) Best ML first baseman for 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, and 1974. Best NL first baseman for 1970

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Cupid Childs-2B (2): Best major league second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.

4) Charley Jones-LF/CF (4): Makes another big leap again! He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

5) Bucky Walters-P (11): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

6) Mickey Welch-P (9): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

7) Vic Willis-P (12): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

8) Rube Waddell-P (n/e): Yes, this is a huge jump for him. Besides my increase in the rankings of pitchers overall, I have decided to give him average credit for 1898-99. That seemed to push him from ballot-contender to almost top-of-the-heap. Without that MiL credit, he would be behind Pierce. Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.

9) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/dh (3): Extremely surprised that he's not getting more support. Best player at his position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, 1969, and 1972. Best right fielder for 1974.

10) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (4): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.
   107. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 01, 2006 at 01:53 AM (#2192949)
11) Alejandro Oms-CF (5): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

12) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (6): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

13) Pie Traynor-3B (7): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

14) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (13): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (10): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Pierce, Kiner and Boyer all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   108. Max Parkinson Posted: October 01, 2006 at 01:13 PM (#2193222)
With 19 ballots to go, 17 of the remaining voters either submitted a prelim ballot, or had last year's ballot marked past 15, or have had consistent rankings for enough years that the bottom of their ballot can be semi-accurately divined.

Barring no changes to these ballots, which is a pretty safe assumption as only a small percentage of rankings within the whole of the the HoM change each year, three candidates are within 7 points of second place in the end. This leaves the two open 15th ballot positions (or 12 total points) as incredibly decisive this year. Now, I realise that it's only for two weeks (everyone at the top's getting in before the end of the calendar year), but it's as exciting a time that ballot counters have had since....oh, right. Last year. But before that, it was 1940!

Trevor P. and Ken Fischer, you two get to play Florida in 1986! (or Nevada, if we have any West Wing fans in the house...)
   109. . . . . . . Posted: October 01, 2006 at 02:12 PM (#2193266)
Substantial revision to boost pitchers on my ballot. In surveying my ballot, I came to realize we were electing borderline hitters from the backlog at the expense of some really terrific pitchers. Furthermore, short careers bother me very little for pitchers pre-TJS, because I think career durability is largely luck (you have a 5% chance of injury every year, last man standing is "durable". There are worthy, all-time great short peak pitchers that deserve election.

1) W. McCovey Delicious peak, made somewhat less attractive by the expansion-career-year principle, but still inner circle.

2) R. Waddell-Dominating pitcher who didn't need his defenses help. Red herring after red herring thrown in his path to prevent election. Astonishing K-rates indicate perhaps the best "stuff" of his time (excluding his near-contemporary, the Big Train).

3) C. Keller-A monster hitter. The notion that he shouldn't receive war credit because he might have injured his back soon is a little cockeyed, as military service isn't exactly like sipping margaritas on the beach at Cabo. Wish we knew how much his home park helped him, but he falls just out of the range of Retrosheet.

4) D. Dean-Best pitcher alive for 3 years. Bad "peripherals", but monster run prevention + monster durability is a rare and valuble thing.

5) R. Kiner-Awesome hitting peak, best slugger of his generation, defense not Luzinski-bad. Downgraded below Keller by the influence of the opinion of his peers, who thought him a flawed player...I know that Branch Rickey had ulterior motives is bashing Kiner, but some of the stuff he said was pretty brutal. Probably a better hitter than Keller in neutral park, so this weighs defense and "intangibles".

6) G. Cravath-Massive minor league credit. I can't see the argument against his induction; say, hypothetically, that Hideki Matsui had come over from Japan at age 31 and hit, not as well as he already hit (All-Star), but even better, like Pujolsian numbers. That's Cravath. How is he not an HOMer?

7)C. Childs-Best 2B baseman of his generation, well thought of by his peers, mysteriously forgotten post 1900. Played in a difficult league and dominated it. I don't even think he's a short career candidate given his position and time.

8) A. Joss-New to my ballot, reevaluated when I was researching Waddell v. Pierce. I always dinged him because of his ridiculous BIPA, but then I looked at the DEF and DP for the Indians' 1902-1909 teams, and with the exception of 1906 they were not terrific defensively; top half of the league, maybe, but not number 1. That suggests that Joss ability to prevent hits was real. Joss doesn't have the durability I like (and chewed through alot of pitches for a low-K guy). That keeps him below Waddell.

9) A. Rosen-Peak needs no commentary. I understand why a career guy cant vote for him, but he had arguably the best 3B season of all-time, and it was no fluke.

10) Billy Pierce-Looks much better compared to pitchers of his generation than compared to pitchers of all-time. Sometimes that can be explained by simply a dry run of pitchers (eg, 1980's), and I worried about that w/r/t Pierce b/c of the war. But now looking at 50's pitchers, I just think it was a function of weird usage of that time. I wish someone would quantify the value of his leverage; its not enough to say he was the most leveraged pitcher of his time, you have to say that the leverage was worth XXX wins to his team.

11)E. Roush-I see him as better than Duffy, and also better than the CF's from the overrrepresented 1930's. He'd have to be really mediocre defensively not to be a 10 win player in his best seasons; I think he was better than that. I see him as similar to, but better than, Bernie Williams.

12)C. Mays- Replaces Walters on my ballot, essentially. Mays looks like a career candidate because he hung around for a while post-prime, but he's only great from ~1917-1921. But what a dandy pitcher he was for that time; durable, very effective in run surpression, and, from the looks of it, threw in some highly leveraged relief work. Killed a man.

13) H. Duffy- Grudingly.

14) E. Howard- So obviously a special case. Blocked, moved, token-ed by the Yankees. Dominant at his position when he finally got a chance to play, though peak is diluted by 1961 expansion. Not very often we have candidates who were the best at a key position both defensively and offensively; such candidates deserve special consideration.

15) T. Munson- He's really much better than he appears because his peak comes in pre-renovation Yankee Stadium. I'm not inclined to give out intangible points, but if any position gets 'em, its catcher, and if any catcher gets 'em, its Munson. Munson may have been a 10-win player in his best 2 seasons in a neutral context, which is pretty awesome.

Off Ballot:

Dobie Moore-I now actually find him to be a more compelling case than Mendez was, but there's virtually no evidence to demonstrate his HOM worthiness, so a vote for Moore is basically saying "he was the best black SS, and so by demographic probability was probably as good as the HoM white guys". That argument is acceptable for the really great players, but tenuous. Once you get down to the Dobie Moore's of the world, it completely falls apart.

K. Boyer- #16 on my ballot. Lost a little bit of confidence in his defensive numbers, and lost a lot of faith in the need for positional balance. Will return to ballot as the peak-backlog gets elected.

M. Minoso- No better than half-a-dozen corner OF candidates. "Ageing" really affected his value for me compared to when I started this project. Gets a couple of years of extra credit, but not sufficient to compensate for a lack of a real OF peak (the kind held by the Kiner Keller Kleins)
   110. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 01, 2006 at 02:23 PM (#2193279)
110. Robby Cano isn't just a God, he's THE God.('zop) Posted: October 01, 2006 at 10:12 AM (#2193266)

Okay, I had no idea that "B Williams" and now "Robby Cano" is dzop. Count me as very surprised.
   111. rawagman Posted: October 01, 2006 at 02:28 PM (#2193281)
Is that the ballotteer formerly known as B Williams doubled to catcher?
   112. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 01, 2006 at 02:29 PM (#2193284)
Is that the ballotteer formerly known as B Williams doubled to catcher?

That's the one.
   113. . . . . . . Posted: October 01, 2006 at 03:41 PM (#2193316)
Okay, I had no idea that "B Williams" and now "Robby Cano" is dzop. Count me as very surprised.

Dare I ask why? I can make a pretty good guess, me thinks.
   114. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 01, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#2193320)
Dare I ask why? I can make a pretty good guess, me thinks.

I was surprised because 1) you're a longtime BBTF poster, but I don't remember you posting at the HoM site as dzop prior to your initial ballot and 2) I hadn't seen your original screen name in quite a while, so I assumed that you weren't posting at BBTF anymore.

Nothing more than that, dzop. BTW, I wouldn't have addressed you as "Bernie" in my reminder posts the past few election day Mondays if I had known who you were really. ;-)
   115. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: October 01, 2006 at 08:10 PM (#2193674)
1. Willie McCovey: Best candidate available. 211 OPS+ peak season. A professional hitter.
2. Ralph Kiner: Tremendous hitter. Seven home run titles! Easy number 2.
3. Dobie Moore: I'm convinced. Great hitter at SS.
4. Hugh Duffy: 16.72 RC/27 in his best season. That's freakin awesome. Good glove, made his teams better. I like him a lot.
5. Ken Boyer: Brooks Robinson-lite, but with a peak.
6. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak for a pitcher of his day. Super close to, but a tiny bit better than:
7. Rube Waddell: Awesome peak, good/great prime.
8. Charlie Keller: Poor man's Kiner. Close to Kiner with war credit, but not quite there, and definitely wouldn't have 7 HR titles.
9. Pete Browning: Re-evaluation of peak OF's moves him up here. He could rake. Perhaps an early-day Dick Allen?
10. Thurman Munson: I might get some heat for this placement, but I think Thurm transcended the numbers. A great leader, he was the unifying force in those "Bronx Zoo" clubhouses. He was a pretty good player, too.
11. Alejandro Oms: I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player.
12. Jake Beckley: Took a closer look at him, and moved him here. I wasn't giving him enough credit for the glove. Some sort of a peak, and he'd be top 5.
13. Minnie Minoso: Still don't know what to make of him.
14. Cupid Childs: Pretty good second baseman, both with the bat and the glove.
15. George Van Haltren: Offensively similar to Beckley, but Beckley's defense outweighs GVH's pitching credit.

16-20: Norm Cash, Chuck Klein, Frank Howard, Lou Brock, Ben Taylor
21-40: Roy White, Mickey Lolich, Dick Redding, Addie Joss, Nellie Fox, Charley Jones, Dizzy Dean, Gavvy Cravath, Roger Bresnahan, Quincy Trouppe, Sam Rice, Pie Traynor, Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn, Orlando Cepeda, Catfish Hunter, Bob Johnson, John McGraw, Wally Schang, Phil Rizzuto
   116. SWW Posted: October 02, 2006 at 03:16 AM (#2194181)
"I was trying to figure out why [Childs] would be so high on the ballot, and then I saw his highest similarity score: Hughie Jennings."

Please tell me that isn't a serious part of your (or anyone else's evaluation) of Childs.

No, it is not. I was attempting to make a humorous observation about Childs having his highest comp in Jennings, a candidate whose election I did not support. In that respect, I clearly failed. The similarity score was not a factor in comparing the two, and considering that the actual score is 877, I'd be hard pressed to find them actually similar.

I do think that similarity scores can be a useful tool. For example, if you're evaluating a candidate and eight of his top 10 comps are in the HOM, then that might serve as a pretty strong indication that the candidate is a legitimate contender for the honor as well. But it certainly shouldn't be considered alone.

I have Childs ranked behind two other second basemen, Fox and Doyle, both with higher career numbers, higher primes, and higher or equal peaks. I never intended to suggest that Childs was another Jennings, and I apologize for the glibness and clumsy wording that may have given that impression.
   117. DavidFoss Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:09 AM (#2194249)
1986 Ballot

1. Willie McCovey (ne) -- Monster Peak! And then a slew of part-time great seasons as well. Plus he's got a Cove named after him. ;-) Easily ahead of the backlog.
2. Larry Doyle (1) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests. We've inducted corner guys who haven't hit as well as he did.
3. Cupid Childs (2) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level. A bit more career length and he would have been in by now.
4. John McGraw (3) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
5. Ralph Kiner (4) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
6. Billy Pierce (5) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA. Pierce or Waddell? Looks like we are going for both.
7. Gavvy Cravath (6) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles. Very similar to Kiner.
8. Charley Jones (7) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
9. Dick Redding (8) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. Rube Waddell (9) -- Turns out I was being too hard on him for giving up so many UER. Its weird that a strikeout artist would be so susceptible to bad fielding, but an adjustment only drops his ERA+ by a few points. He's certainly has to peak and the career rates to be a HOM-er.
11. Roger Bresnahan (10) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
12. Bob Elliott (11) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
13. Charlie Keller (12) -- Incredible hitter for several years. Career shortened by minors on the front end, injuries on the back end and war in the middle. Very difficult guy to judge. Certainly HOM-level, but will he get enough time-credit to get inducted?
14. Al Rosen (13) -- Another top-level player, but for short enough to keep him out of the HOM so far.
15. Pete Browning (nr) -- Great peak, career OPS+ of 162 but in-season durability, career-length, league quality and fielding issues have weighed him down relative to other players. Finally makes my ballot.
16-20. Chance, Lombardi, BJohnson, Fox, Roush,
21-25. Beckley, Welch, Trouppe, DMoore, Minoso
26-30. FHoward, Cash, Leach, JWynn, Cepeda
31-34. Brock, KBoyer, Newcombe, TBridges
   118. Tiboreau Posted: October 02, 2006 at 07:48 AM (#2194315)
1. 1b Willie McCovey (nc)
2. 2b Cupid Childs (2, 2, 4)—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
3. ss Dobie Moore (3, 3, 5)—Since his candidacy is based on his stellar peak (as well as pre-1920 credit) his numbers are underrated due to regression. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
4. lf Charlie Keller (4, 4, 6)—After WWII credit Keller’s peak, while not quite as high, is sufficiently stronger than Kiner’s to slip ahead. King Kong also receives credit for his last year with the Newark Bears.
5. sp Bucky Walters (5, 5, 7)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
6. lf Ralph Kiner (6, 6, 8)—Both Win Shares and WARP agree that Kiner & Keller were the best outfielders, peak-wise, available. Below Moore because, while their peak was better, Moore is closer to longer career, good peak infielders than the two peak-centric outfielders are to their counterparts.
7. sp Dizzy Dean (8, 9, 11)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
8. 3b Al Rosen (9, 10, 12)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else. Career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
9. cf Alejandro Oms (10, 12, 14)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
10. sp Rube Waddell (11, 13, 15)—While a real good player at his peak, his character created interesting issues for his teams, evidenced by his disappointing IP totals during that time and his UERA totals over his career.
11. cf Jimmy Wynn (12, 14, ob)—One of my favorite ballplayers from before my time, an underrated ballplayer considering era and ballpark who combined speed and patience with surprising power for his stature, I’m happy to see him rate well. A real good peak, although the Toy Cannon’s inconsistency, mixing mediocre seasons with superb, hurts him a bit.
12. c Elston Howard (13, 15, ob)—After pre-MLB credit, a similar player to Roger Bresnahan; his peak is slightly better, career slightly shorter. Howard jumps ahead Bresnahan, however, due to the fact that he was entirely a catcher during his peak, while Bresnahan spent significant time in the outfield during his best years.
13. sp Billy Pierce (14, ob)—Did not have the IP per season I like, which is reflected in WS and WARP’s peak assessments, but this doesn’t account for leveraged IP and other strategic usage patterns.
14. 3b Ken Boyer (ob)—Looking solely at Win Shares, would dally with Doyle & Fox in the mid-20s; the combination of WARP's rating of his defense and the under-representation of 3b in the HoM pushes Boyer onto my ballot. It will be interesting to compare him to Sal Bando next "year."
15. cf Edd Roush (ob)—Missed playing time hurts, but still has a real good peak that is a bit overshadowed by WWI. Career puts him ahead of Berger, while peak puts him ahead of Ryan & Van Haltren (Pen. Add., excluding pitching WS: Roush, .793; Ryan, .781; Van Haltren, .771).

Required Disclosures:
30. lf Minnie Minoso (ob)—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory.
   119. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2006 at 11:22 AM (#2194328)
40 ballots tallied so far. Still missing nallots from: EricC, Don F, DanG, mulder and scully (Kelly), Trevor P., Thane of Bagarth, Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Patrick W, Max Parkinson, KJOK, Joe Dimino, Ardo, vaux, and fra paolo.

Please don't submit your ballot at the last minute, if that is all possible. Thanks!
   120. rawagman Posted: October 02, 2006 at 12:21 PM (#2194339)
John, is it possible that some of the missing ballots are from Jewish voters?
Today is Yom Kippur. It doesn't stop me from using the computer, but it may stop others.
If some ballots are still missing by closing timne, can I recommend postponing the finals by 4-12 hours?
   121. karlmagnus Posted: October 02, 2006 at 12:29 PM (#2194341)
John is a nice man, and will want to do the PC thing here, but why couldn't Jewish voters have pasted their ballots in the last 6 days?

(I am a generally grumpy individual and HATE PC-ness.)
   122. Ken Fischer Posted: October 02, 2006 at 12:47 PM (#2194350)
1986 Ballot

1-Willie McCovey 408 WS
No brainer. I once saw Willie go after fans in Palm Springs. He ran into the wire backstop separating the players from the seats. He was so mad he wanted to break through the wire. He’s one guy I would not want to upset.

2-Dick Redding
Is Dick going to rise again? He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

3-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Would’ve easily been over 300 if his Negro League years were in majors. 189 Grey Ink is impressive in any era.

4-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Van appears to be losing support! Like Redding, Van had a run where it looked like he would make the HOM. It’s now doubtful.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
I continue to hold out hope for the 300-game winner. How can we forget that 1885 season!

6-Lou Brock 348 WS
Good post-season numbers. Lou stood out in a pitchers era. He may not be a number one choice but a top 10 for sure.

7-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

8-Vern Stephens 265 WS
A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Billy Pierce 248 WS
On my ballot for the first time. Overlooked because of the timing of his career (post-Feller...pre-Gibson...with some overlap).

11-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

12-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

13-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

14- Ralph Kiner 242 WS
I finally bring Kiner aboard. It was a tough decision.

15- Ken Boyer 279 WS

Moore #27, Waddell #37, Childs #29

I will give Moore another look next time…I’m not ready to change my mind on Childs & Waddell…there are other 19th Century players and other pitchers more deserving ahead of them on my ballot. I’ll take Redding, Pierce or Mays over Waddell when the game is on the line.
   123. EricC Posted: October 02, 2006 at 12:58 PM (#2194363)
1986 ballot. Since last year, I reworked the league factor calculations that I use. Though the changes are small, some players rose or fell quite a bit due to the tightness of the ballot.

1. Willie McCovey Obviously qualified.
2. Wally Schang All position players in my system have their stats adjusted to partially compensate for the relative amount of typical playing time; catcher is the only position where it has a big effect in general. I see Schang as a candidate in the Freehan-Torre mode, considering that he played in a time when catchers typically caught less per season.
3. Orlando Cepeda - Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the bottom-half-of-the-HoM bats. I feel that Cepeda in particular has been underrated- especially when 50s-60s NL strength is taken into account.
4. Norm Cash -
5. Charlie Keller - My guesstimate is that his monster peak would have been sustained during the war years, making him a viable "peak candidate" a la Jennings.
6. Nellie Fox - Borderline 50s 2B candidate. Solid prime, long career, my hunch is that he eventually gets elected.
7. Orestes Minoso - Not an extereme career, but a little credit for ML time missed and a fine prime put him on the ballot.
8. Elston Howard - Ballot counters, note which Howard is which. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.
9. Mickey Vernon - Don't think that he has ever made my ballot before. One of the top candidates for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII" listed in the NBJHBA.
10. Jimmy Wynn - Offensive stats hurt by era and park; still, given raw numbers, surprising that ends up so high- cw 10th best CF in the NBJHBA.
11. Al Rosen - Like with E. Howard, a huge peak. Very few non-HoFers have earned 150 WS over a 5 year stretch. Little outside those 5 years.
12. Billy Pierce - Nice to see some respect for borderline pitching candidates from this era. With the new league factors, my top pitcher is the consensus one.
13. Sol White - Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to ever know if this rating is accurate, but the sketchy record available show a full career, most of it at 2B, but several years at SS, a high batting average, and a reputation for intelligence.
14. Frank Howard -
15. Phil Rizzuto - A defensive star who lost 3 years of his probable peak to the war, likely costing him a 300 WS career. One of the players who deserves the most war credit.

Waddell, Kiner, Childs, and Boyer have been on my ballot in the past. Dobie Moore is a tough candidate to evaluate- it depends on how good was he at his peak, which doesn't look like quite enough for me.
   124. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2006 at 01:07 PM (#2194367)
John, is it possible that some of the missing ballots are from Jewish voters?
Today is Yom Kippur. It doesn't stop me from using the computer, but it may stop others.
If some ballots are still missing by closing timne, can I recommend postponing the finals by 4-12 hours?

Hmmm...forgot about that.

I've sent out e-mails to everybody who hasn't posted yet, so I'll wait before I contact Joe about this (he would have the ultimate say).

Dan, Max, fra paolo, and Thane have said they will submit ballots today, BTW.

John is a nice man, and will want to do the PC thing here, but why couldn't Jewish voters have pasted their ballots in the last 6 days?

I actually don't disagree with this (well, maybe about me being a nice man :-), karlmagnus, but it wouldn't be fair not to give any Jewish voters extra time when we have given it for other events/holidays. With that said, hopefully we wont have to extend the deadline.
   125. Max Parkinson Posted: October 02, 2006 at 01:47 PM (#2194409)
1986 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are McCovey and Kiner. It looks like a 2/3rds chance that one of Kiner or Waddell will make it in this year, bringing the MP HoM / HoM gap down to 10)

1. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

2. Rube Waddell

Slight change to pitcher rankings, with a touch more emphasis on peak. Waddell hops Redding.

3. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

4. Willie McCovey

Probably as low as someone will put him on the ballot, but here he is. The two hitters above him also had some pretty good peak, and weren’t atrocious 1st basemen to boot. I’m trying not to hold the fact that he was a terrible left fielder against him, ‘cause no sane team would have put him there, but we don’t make those types of allowances for other players. Hell, Joe Sewell got dinged for 40 years because his team played him out of position for a few years…

5. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

6. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

7. Dick Redding
8. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

9. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

10. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

11. Ralph Kiner

I promised that I’d take another look. I was penalising his defence more than I should have – he wasn’t there for his glove…

12. Ben Taylor
13. George Burns
14. Bobby Veach

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

15. Urban Shocker

16-20. Keller, Cash, Lazzeri, Walters, Bancroft
21-25. Duffy, Konetchy, Munson, Pierce, B. Johnson
26-30. W. Wood, R. White, Cuyler, Minoso, Cicotte
31-35. Childs, Youngs, Bridges, Klein, Tiernan
36-40. Hooper, Rucker, F. Jones, Traynor, Trouppe
41-45. Rommel, Boyer, Bradley, F. Howard, Roush
46-50. Wynn, Oms, Willis, Trout, E. Howard
51-55. Seymour, Nicholson, Leach, Chance, Griffin
56-60. Cepeda, Gomez, Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang
61-65. S.J. Wood, Nash, Dunlap, Luque, Beckley
66-70. Harder, Bottomley, B. Elliott, Bartell, Hodges

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Pierce is 24. I have concerns regarding how many more pitchers we’re going to elect from the inferior league of the ‘50s.
Minoso is 29. As my ballot indicates, I prefer Burns and Veach.
Childs is 31.
   126. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2006 at 02:20 PM (#2194437)
Ardo will be posting his ballot sometime in the afternoon, while Don is hoping to get his by 7.
   127. Thane of Bagarth Posted: October 02, 2006 at 02:25 PM (#2194440)
I've been a little pressed for time lately and won't be able to check back before the election deadline. If something is egregiously wrong I won't pitch a fit if my ballot is disqualified.

1986 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate. New WARPs are incorporated for the top 30 or so guys, which seems to have benefited earlier players most.

1) Willie McCovey
Clearly #1 on this ballot. Not necessarily an inner-circle guy, but I’ve got him just below Clemente.

2) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

3) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers—yet.

4) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

5) Bob Johnson
Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate. New WARP moves him up a little.

6) Quincy Trouppe
For a while now I’ve ranked him as the best available among those who primarily played catcher—the catcher bonus makes that much higher praise. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

7) George Van Haltren
Possibly the biggest beneficiary of the WARP revisions—he seems to jump around every time it changes.

8) Ken Boyer
50.5 WARP3 in top 5 seasons. Plus 99.4 WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

9) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 48.6 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career: 87.9 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

10) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

11) Ralph Kiner
149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.

12) Jimmy Ryan
Another big mover-upper, like GVH.

13) Gavy Cravath
I’ve been pretty generous with MiL credit, which helps Gavy get on the ballot.

14) Dobie Moore

15) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner and Howard for best top 3 seasons in Win Shares (unadjusted for season length) with 102. Kiner moved ahead by a smidge this year.

The Rest of the Top 30
16) Charley Jones
17) Sam Rice
18) Nellie Fox
19) Minnie Minoso—Longevity, mixed with modest peak and some NeL credit has him teetering between on and off the bottom of my ballot.
20) Billy Pierce—He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.
21) Jake Beckley—Sorta close to the ballot due to career value, still, 38.4 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
22) Tommy Leach
23) Rabbit Maranville
24) Burleigh Grimes
25) Jack Quinn
26) Norm Cash
27) Buzz Arlett—His discussion thread convinced he should be relatively close to the ballot, but, even in a weak year, I can’t bring myself to put him in the top 15.
28) Jim Wynn between spots 10 and 14 is miniscule).
29) Rube Waddell—Small bonus for MiL play doesn’t move him all that close to the ballot. I feel like the bonus is justified mostly in that it makes up for what looks like an otherwise low IP career for his era.
30) Bob Elliot

Other Top Returnees Not in Top 50
XX) Cupid Childs—His new WARP #s move him up but I still can’t find room in my top 30 for him. He doesn’t get an official rank here since I haven’t updated everyone that was ahead of him.
   128. Howie Menckel Posted: October 02, 2006 at 02:59 PM (#2194467)
No apology needed, SWW.
I'm just glad I at least ASKED if that was a key factor, instead of presuming it to be so. And the exchange was a chance for someone else who might be misled by similarity scores to realize the perils.
The break in voting at the end of the year is not for religious reasons; it's for practical ones - many people, of all religions, are traveling at that time for the entire week.
In fact, many of my Jewish friends go to vacation spots that week - I'd even venture to guess that the break in voting at year's end is more beneficial to the Jewish voters (who are more likely to be vacationing abroad) than the Christian ones (who may be away visiting family, but seemingly would be more likely to have access to a computer that week).

Therefore, it wouldn't make much sense to postpone a vote this week, imo. There was plenty of time last week to put a ballot together for anyone who wouldn't have time on the weekend.
   129. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2006 at 03:16 PM (#2194481)
Therefore, it wouldn't make much sense to postpone a vote this week, imo. There was plenty of time last week to put a ballot together for anyone who wouldn't have time on the weekend.

For now, I think we should play it by ear. Besides, if the only remaining non-voters are people that I know who aren't Jewish by 8, then it's a moot point anyway.

BTW, KJOK will be posting late.
   130. DanG Posted: October 02, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#2194529)
My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #5 was elected. The drought continues in 1986 as we elect McCovey and another backlogger. Bonds and Bando lead off in 1987, when we elect three. The backlog bonanza ends in 1988 as Stargell, Tiant and R. Smith grab the spotlight. One of the best classes ever enters in 1989 with Bench, Yaz, Perry, Jenkins, Kaat, Tenace and Campaneris. We should already have discussion threads up for these guys. John? In 1990 we’ll elect Morgan and Palmer, while Singleton and Otis challenge the backlog.

1) Willie McCovey – The only player on this ballot with an argument to rank as a top 100 player.

2) George Van Haltren (1,3,5) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1972 to 1978, he went from the #1 unelected player to #15. Finished out of the top 20 again, as two more guys passed him; we’ve now elected six players who were behind him in 1970. Why? Now in his 78th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

3) Edd Roush (2,5,7) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. Support jumped again last election, passing three more guys. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

4) Tommy Leach (3,4,6) – Held his ground again, regaining a top 30 ranking and topping Brock, as he should. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

5) Minnie Minoso (4,6,8) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

6) Jake Beckley (6,9,12) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

7) Burleigh Grimes (8,11,14) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

8) Roger Bresnahan (7,8,10) – A couple more voters now (~11) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

9) Charlie Keller (10,13,15) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with highest OPS, 1938-51, minimum 4500 PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize

5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine
12-.834 V. Stephens
13-.834 R. York
14-.832 B. Nicholson
15-.828 A. Galan
16-.827 B. Doerr
17-.823 B. Elliott
18-.822 J. Gordon

10) Jimmy Ryan (9,10,11) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 14 voters who had GVH in their top twelve last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

11) Cupid Childs (12,14,--) – I’ve voted for him 11 times previously: we’re at the point where he’ll never fall off again, as we’ll keep mining the backlog. Edges Doyle on league strength and era dominance. Players with OBP over .410, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1—.455 B. Hamilton
2—.433 T. Cobb
3—.431 T. Speaker
4—.423 D. Brouthers
5—.421 E. Collins
6—.416 C. Childs
7—.415 J. Burkett
8—.413 R. Thomas
9—.411 E. Delahanty

12) Wally Schang (11,12,13) – My other Lost Cause, along with Ryan. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

13) Ralph Kiner (13,15,--) – Keeps his ballot spot. I’m not a big fan of short careers or narrow skill sets. But, I’ve never seen him on any “questionable hall of famers” survey. Probably deserves a year of war credit. NBJHBA rates him ~#171. Like Keller, a long, high prime. Could move up.

14) Billy Pierce (14,--,--) – Third time on ballot. Only Spahn, Roberts and Lemon were completing a higher percentage of their starts; Pierce was also relieving about five times a year in his prime. It adds a lot of leverage to his pitching, as has been discussed.

15) Ken Boyer (15,--,--) – New evidence that he deserves a year or so for war credit gets him on the ballot. His adjusted WS go to ~305.

Top tenners off ballot:

I’ve never voted for Waddell because he ranks behind many other pitchers of his era, where it was easy for pitchers to dominate. OTOH, he’s very close to cracking my ballot, as recent discussion shows him very close to Pierce.

Moore used to get my vote, but I’m not so sure his peak was really Jennings-esque, so he’s slipped a bit.

Weak AL keeps Fox off the ballot, for now.
   131. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:15 PM (#2194576)
Andrew will be posting his ballot during the early afternoon, while Patrick will try to post his late.
   132. Andrew M Posted: October 02, 2006 at 05:25 PM (#2194586)
1986 Ballot

After number one, there aren’t many changes from 1985.

1. (new) Willie McCovey. Great hitter. Easy #1 this week.

2. (1) Dobie Moore. He was a great player for more than a Jennings-esque 5 years and high peak SS’s are hard to find. As I’ve said in the past, I think his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

3. (2) Nellie Fox. Durable (more than 600 ABs each year between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ not impressive, perhaps, but it’s OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career.

4. (4) Larry Doyle. As far as I have been able to determine, BP’s assessment of his defense is not consistent with other historical ratings (Win Shares, Diamond Mind) or contemporary accounts. Not many 2B have been his equal offensively. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years.

5. (5) Billy Pierce. To my mind, the best eligible pitcher. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale or Marichal. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade.

6. (3) Edd Roush. He’s hard to get a handle on. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc.—and it isn’t readily apparent that Roush was better than some of the other OFs with around 8000 career plate appearances, e.g. Burns, Veach, Cuyler, Manush, Bob Johnson, Minoso. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF (according to Win Shares—WARP thinks less of his fielding) seems slightly higher than those other OFs, and his career was significantly longer than the OFs with higher peaks (e.g. Kiner, Keller). In other words, Roush balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other eligible candidates.

7. (6) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him higher, but I like him more than I like the three 1890s OFs.

8. (7) Dick Redding. I think his closest comp may be Juan Marichal. By reputation would seem to belong in the HoM, though the projections in his thread always seemed not to support that reputation.

9. (8) Rube Waddell. Deserves respect for top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even accounting for innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.

10. (9) Geo. Van Haltren. Never an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

11. (10) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

12. (11) Ralph Kiner. I don’t really like this type of player, but he does seem like the best of this type--and 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

13. (13) Minnie Minoso. Spent the 1950s in the top 10 in pretty much every offensive category in the AL. Gets some NeL credit.

14. (14) George J. Burns. Arguably the best NL OF of the 1910s. Rarely missed a game, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade.

15. (new) Quincy Trouppe. I don’t have much of a sense of his defense, but assuming he was at least average, I think he looks pretty similar in career length and quality to Bill Freehan, though his skills were different.

Next 10
Bucky Walters
Charlie Keller
Phil Rizzuto
Alejandro Oms
Tommie Leach
Vern Stephens
Jimmy Ryan
Ken Boyer
Jimmy Wynn
Indian Bob Johnson

Required Disclosures: Ken Boyer. I’ve voted for him before. Currently just off the ballot.
   133. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2006 at 06:32 PM (#2194660)
The Commish has notified me that he probably will have a ballot posted around 4.
   134. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 02, 2006 at 07:31 PM (#2194719)
Devin says he'll be posting between 6 and 7.
   135. The Honorable Ardo Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:13 PM (#2194786)
1986 Ballot

Most thinking people would have substituted Dave Stapleton at first base.

In 1985, we elected Jose Mendez (1), Bill Freehan (2), and Joe Sewell (13).

1. Willie McCovey - dominant power hitter, similar value to Killebrew. His better peak matches up to Killebrew's defensive 'versatility'.
2. Billy Pierce - many excellent RA+ years, plus extensive leverage credit.
3. Charley Jones - only glaring 19th Cent. omission - the Dick Allen of his era.
4. Wally Schang - his durability was excellent for his era. It's sloppy thinking to compare him head-on to Lombardi or the '70s catchers.
5. Norm Cash - One Big Year, excellent 1B defense, 139 OPS+.
6. Quincy Trouppe - a similar type of player to Joe Torre.
7. Ken Boyer - Strong eight-year prime, but little else.
8. Nellie Fox - Great defense, long career, just enough punch.
9. Dick Redding - Can't decide if he's Vic Willis (not enough, IMO) or a bit better than that (and a deserving HoMer).
10. Orestes Minoso - vaults up vs. the other players in his immediate post-integration era cohort.
11. Edd Roush - a comparable and superior player to Richie Ashburn.
12. Rabbit Maranville - loads and loads of career value.
13. Jake Beckley - sneaks back onto the tail end of my ballot.
14. Jimmy Wynn - Astrodomed out of several dominant counting-stat seasons.
15. Orlando Cepeda - Stretch McCovey's onetime teammate could also rake.

16-20: Kiner, Waddell, Munson, Browning, E. Howard.
21-25: Luque, Easter, Bresnahan, Rizzuto, Bridges.
   136. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:35 PM (#2194823)
Here we go . . .

1. Willie McCovey 1B (n/e) - Just a monster hitter, long career, great peak, easy #1. In a class with Connor/Brouthers/Anson, arguably the #3 1B we've elected, behind Gehrig and Foxx. No lower than #6 behind the other 3 mentioned.

2. Gavy Cravath RF (1) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

3. Jack Quinn SP (3) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a huge leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26.

4. Urban Shocker SP (4) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

5. Billy Pierce SP (5) - What's not to like? He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. He took a bit of a dip with my league adjustments (AL much worse than NL during his tenure). But I still think he's worthy.

6. Charley Jones LF (6) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

7. Jake Beckley 1B (7) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

8. Tommy Bridges SP (9) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

9. Rube Waddell (23) - Flying up the charts. I tweaked my defense adjustment slightly, and now I've got him slightly ahead of Brown. Clearly above McGinnity. And Griffith. He belongs, each time I look closer I like what I see more.

10. Thurman Munson C (10) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

11. Wally Schang C (11) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense questionable, only thing keeping him from the #7 spot on this ballot.

12. Cupid Childs 2B (12) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.

13. Jimmy Wynn CF (13) - I thought I'd have him higher. Man this ballot is jammed with great players.

14. Dave Bancroft SS (14) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

15. Burleigh Grimes SP (15) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.

Honorable Mention:

16. Ralph Kiner (20) - I dropped him a fair amount in 1981 - He's quite similar to Charley Jones, but Jones was a plus fielder, Kiner a minus. That makes all the difference in the competition this tight. He's not that far behind though.

17. Charlie Keller (21) - I've been convinced he's closer to Charley Jones than Ross Youngs.

18. Phil Rizzuto (16) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

19. Minnie Minoso (17) - I was underrating his pre MLB play.

20. Norm Cash 1B (18) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example. This is a conservative ranking. I will be VERY disappointed if he isn't eventually elected.

21. Cecil Travis (19) - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

22. Bob Johnson (22) - Overlooked star, not much difference between Johnson and Medwick.

23. Tommy Henrich (25) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

24. Dobie Moore (--) - Tough to get right, but I'm feeling a little more peaky this time around.

25. Jim Fregosi (--) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

Ken Boyer? He's close, but I have him below Traynor.
   137. Gerald Bostock Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:37 PM (#2194913)
I've been unsettled by the Tigers' end-of-season swoon, as well as burdened by two jobs at the moment, so I apologize for lateness. I vote on the basis of achievements during prime, working ont he basis of an average season during the prime, and defining prime differently for pitchers, hitting positions (1b+OF) and fielding positions (remaining IF).

1 Rube Waddell A pitcher with no fewer than 3 of those seasons worth 4 or 5 Wins above average that I value highly.
2 Ralph Kiner His career was short, but for half of it he was comparable to an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Seven home run titles is the third-highest total in MLB history, too.
3 Willie McCovey I'm not a hundred percent sure about putting him this low, and I doubt I'll get a second chance, but McCovey's prime isn't quite as high as my top two choices, although it is a good deal longer. He's a clear HoMer, though.
4 Cupid Childs Between 1890 and 1897 he accumulated 214 Adjusted Batting Runs and 72 Fielding Runs, which is a very high total for an infielder.
5 Jimmy Wynn Way underrated. In terms of Batting Runs + Fielding Runs he's the most impactful of hitters on my ballot.
6 Ken Boyer Boyer is an excellent third baseman in an 11-year prime, and is only a little less valuable than Childs. Another underrated candidate.
7 Thurman Munson Closer to Freehan over prime than people seem to think, I rate these two as of equal value. If Freehan's in, so must Munson be.
8 Minnie Minoso Not quite the height of prime I'd like to see, but he still adds 3 wins a year during it, with solid peak seasons in 1952, 1954 and 1956.
9 Billy Pierce A consistent pitcher offering a steady supply of 2-3 Wins Above Average per season over an eight-year period.
10 Bucky Walters. Equivalent to Pierce over his prime, but offers more high-impact seasons in contrast to greater consistency.
11 Alejandro Oms Oms beats out a crowded field of outer circle HoMer types because he has got the longest prime.
12 Charley Jones A dominant bat in his era, given a boost because of his missing years owing to a salary dispute.
13 Edd Roush When he retired he was the 2d-best centrefielder in National League history. Overshadowed by his AL counterparts.
14 Orlando Cepeda By virtue of height of prime, he's first at first at the moment.
15 Lou Brock. One cannot ignore that he is, in 1985, the all-time stolen base leader. He also has a very long prime, at 13 years.

Esteemed newcomers:
I haven't really had a chance to review Horton or Cardenal in detail, but running the eyeball over their stats doesn't show them pushing their way ahead of Lou Brock.

Special mention
Jake Beckley: I dunno, maybe I've been underrating him. I might reassess him in 1987 under my system if I have time.
   138. KJOK Posted: October 02, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#2194930)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. WILLIE McCOVEY, 1B. 39 POW, 112 WARP1, 468 RCAP & .698 OWP in 9,686 PAs. Def: FAIR. No one else really close to him this year.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

7. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

8. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking. Close to Marichal also.

9. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

10. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

11. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

14. THURMAN MUNSON, C. 25 POW, 72 WARP1, 174 RCAP & .571 OWP in 5,903 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Initially thought his career would be too short to make my ballot, but in comparison to his contemporaries, he still graded out around # 4-5 in his 30-year window.

15. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He’s back again! He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.



JOHN HILLER, RP. 21 POW, 60 WARP, 136 RSAA, & 134 ERA+ in 1,242 innings. Possibly the best reliever of the 1970’s, and very high up on my all-time reliever list, but still doesn’t make ballot.


RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still better than him, such as Childs.

JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Competition in OF tough for a spot on ballot. Just misses

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.
   139. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 02, 2006 at 10:30 PM (#2194945)
I got this done a bit earlier than I thought I would. Stretch and somebody else make my PHOM, I’ll figure that part out later.

1986 ballot:

1. Willie McCovey: The career numbers and peak speak for themselves, and he might well have played more early in his career if Alvin Dark had had more “mental alertness.” :-) (PHOM)

2. Minnie Minoso: A six-tool player -- the usual 5 plus “get hit by pitches”. Strong in all phases of the game, fine prime, lacks only eye-popping seasons. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

3. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of hitters when others weren’t. Gave up a lot of unearned runs, but so did lots of people in his day. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

4. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

5. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

6. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

7. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

8. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning without league quality issues. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

9. Ken Boyer: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)

10. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)

11. Orlando Cepeda: Edges Cash as a 1b candidate. Better peak, one more good season, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)

12. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

13. Pie Traynor: Largely forgotten here, but had 11 quality seasons and was a 6-time STATS all-star. (eligible 1941)

14. Lou Brock: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985)

15. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. Back on after a few years absence. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

Required comments:
Cupid Childs: My #3 2b behind Fox (on ballot) and Doyle (off).
Dobie Moore: High quality, but short career hurts.
   140. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 02, 2006 at 10:55 PM (#2194961)
My ballot looks a little different now, as #2,3 and 7 all got elected. Maybe now I won’t be quite so high on consensus scores. On the other hand, both Waddell and Pierce moved up this year, so I probably will. I lean a little bit more to career than to peak, but I try to balance the two. McCovey and Pierce make my PHoM this year.

1. Willie McCovey (new) Clearly a step ahead of all the holdovers. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Minnie Minoso (1) The more I look at him, the more I like him ahead of the other OF candidates. Gets a bit of an era boost from me – even though the AL was the weaker league, the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Also, the spread between the leagues took some time to develop. Made my PHoM in 1971.

3. Dick Redding (4) Now that Mendez is in, my highest ranking pitcher. Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

4. Jimmy Wynn (6) I do sort of worry that I'm just voting for the uber-stats, but the more I've looked at him, the more I like him. Out of all the CF candidates currently out there, his OPS+ beats everyone but Wally Berger, who has other issues. Made my PHoM last year.

5. Rube Waddell (9) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing. But his era is pretty well-represented for pitchers. There's a lot of similarities between his record and Pierce's, except for the ERA+. Probably does deserve some Minor League credit, so moving him up a bit more. Made my PHoM last year.

6. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. Dobie Moore (8) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

8. George Van Haltren (10) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

9. Billy Pierce (14) There really isn’t much separating him from Marichal when you look at the totality of his career, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive. The RSAA numbers for his era, however, are. Did have his best years in the early 50s, when the NL advantage was not so great. Makes my PHoM this year.

10. Quincy Trouppe (11) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

11. Tommy Leach (12) Best Friend no more. Drops because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

12. Gavvy Cravath (13) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him (I really need to redo my attempted WS-to-WARP translation with the latest system).

13. Cupid Childs (15) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

14. Jake Beckley. (16) I still think his typical season was pretty weak, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Moved past Medwick/Johnson because I really do think the 30s are overrepresented.
(14A Joe Medwick)

15. Ken Boyer (17) Moves up because he missed time in the minors due to military service. It doesn't help his peak, but gives him enough of a career boost to move pass Clarkson. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question.

16. Bob Johnson (18) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.
17. Bus Clarkson (19) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
(17A Clark Griffith, 17B Biz Mackey)
18. Alejandro Oms (22) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
19. Charlie Keller (20) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
20. Norm Cash (21) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism).
21. Phil Rizzuto (23) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
(21A Cool Papa Bell, 21B Max Carey)
22. Nellie Fox (24) Just can't have him on the same level as Gordon or Childs. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
(22A Sam Thompson, 22B Richie Ashburn, 22C Rube Foster)
23. Bucky Walters (25) The wartime penalty holds him back, but he does have a strong candidacy.
24. Ben Taylor (26) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
25. Orlando Cepeda (27) You know, his production actually looks pretty similar to Boog Powell's (who's #98 at the moment), albeit lasting a little longer and in the tougher league. That's not really a strong argument to me.
26. Vern Stephens (28) He's close to Rizzuto, but after you account for the war, I don't see any way to have him in front.
27. Ralph Kiner (29) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
28. Lou Brock (30) Just looking at his numbers, he looks pretty similar to Sam Rice and Harry Hooper. The stolen bases and better leagues are reasons to have him well ahead of those guys, but there just isn't enough of a peak for me to put him any higher than this.
29. Bob Elliott (31) Put up strong numbers for a 3Bman, but between the wartime adjustments and the time in the OF, I don’t see him matching up to Boyer.
(29A George Sisler, 29B Hughie Jennings)
30. Edd Roush (32) Very good when he played, but the in-season durability is a problem for me. And hanging out in Oakland City doesn’t help him either.

31. Elston Howard
32. Burleigh Grimes.
33. Charley Jones
34. Pie Traynor
35. Don Newcombe
36. Frank Howard
37. Tony Lazzeri
38. Marvin Williams
39. Roger Bresnahan
40. Dizzy Dean
   141. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 03, 2006 at 12:00 AM (#2194986)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   142. yest Posted: October 03, 2006 at 03:32 PM (#2195550)
In fact, many of my Jewish friends go to vacation spots that week - I'd even venture to guess that the break in voting at year's end is more beneficial to the Jewish voters (who are more likely to be vacationing abroad) than the Christian ones (who may be away visiting family, but seemingly would be more likely to have access to a computer that week).

acctualy next week should probobly be worse for jewish voters due to a holiday which starts on this coming up friday night and ends 9 days later on on sunday night.
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