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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, October 09, 2006

1987 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Bobby Bonds, Sal Bando, and Mike Marshall.

Top-ten returnees: Ralph Kiner, Billy Pierce, Minnie Minoso, Ken Boyer, Cupid Childs, Nellie Fox, Cannonball Dick Redding, and Jimmy Wynn.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 11:52 AM | 129 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 12:00 PM (#2204514)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

2) Cupid Childs-2B (3): Best major league second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.          

3) Charlie Keller-LF (n/e): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. With reasonable WWII and MiL credit, I can't see Kiner going in before him, IMO. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

4) Charley Jones-LF/CF (4): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

5) Bucky Walters-P (5): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

6) Mickey Welch-P (6): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

7) Vic Willis-P (7): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

8) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/dh (9): Extremely surprised that he's not getting more support. Best player at his position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, 1969, and 1972. Best right fielder for 1974.

9) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (10): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

10) Alejandro Oms-CF (11): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 12:00 PM (#2204515)
11) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (12): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

12) Pie Traynor-3B (13): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

13) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (14): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

14) Dobie Moore-SS (15): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

15) Burleigh Grimes-P (n/e): Back on my ballot after a "year's" absence. Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

Pierce, Kiner, Fox, Redding, and Boyer all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Bonds is surprisingly close (#16) and may make the ballot next election.

Bando was a good one, but just not good enough. Same goes for Mike Marshall.
   3. rawagman Posted: October 09, 2006 at 01:34 PM (#2204553)
I wasn't overly impressed by any of the new guys. Sal Bando at 47 is the only one in the top 75. Last election saw by #'s 2 and 3 make the cut and I haven't seen any reason for any sort of readjustment now. Ralph Kiner (just in time?) Quincy Trouppe (with time to spare) and Dick Allen (it's about time) make my PHOM. Billy Williams is closing in.

Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do.

1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on (and up!!) the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
3)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
4)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes (PHOM)
5)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
6)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
7)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak! (PHOM)
8)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week. (PHOM)
((8a)Dick Allen)) (PHOM)
((8b)Billy Williams - Quite the sweet swing he had. His career with Kiner's peak would look something like Frank Robinson.))
9)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
((9a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
((9b)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))

10)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
11)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
12)Orlando Cepeda
13)Ken Boyer - Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.
14)Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.
15)Wally Berger - super-underrated
16)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((16a)Juan Marichal))
17)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
18)Roger Bresnahan
19)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
20)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((20a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
21)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM) - Do I wish I had that back? Maybe...
22)Chuck Klein
23)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
24)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((24a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
25)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting or fielding. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.
26)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.
27)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
28)Cupid Childs
29)Pete Browning
30)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
31)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent.
32)Bus Clarkson - A newcomer to the consideration set. More shades of Quincy.
33)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
34)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
35)Phil Rizzuto
36)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
37)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
38)John McGraw
39)Jimmy Ryan
40)Cy Williams
41)Dolf Camilli
42)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
43)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
44)George Kell
45)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
46)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
47)Sal Bando
48)Pie Traynor - makes a leap to here.
49)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
50)Johnny Evers
51)Elston Howard
52)Bob Johnson
53)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
54)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for pure "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
55)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
56)Red Schoendienst
57)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
58)Thurmon Munson - see below.
59)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
60)Johnny Pesky
61)Hippo Vaughn
62)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
63)Tip O'Neill
64)Rocky Colavito
65)Denny Lyons
66)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
67)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
68)Lon Warneke
69)Don Newcombe
70)Kiki Cuyler
71)Urban Shocker
72)Alejandro Oms
73)Tony Lazzeri
74)Jimmy Williams
75)Bill Nicholson
   4. rawagman Posted: October 09, 2006 at 01:50 PM (#2204564)
Hey, John- this must be a serious backlog ballot. A little sneak preview of consesus issues. Only Duffy and Minoso made both of our top-15.
   5. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 02:11 PM (#2204581)
Hey, John- this must be a serious backlog ballot. A little sneak preview of consesus issues. Only Duffy and Minoso made both of our top-15.

You're more peak-oriented than I am, though guys like Bridges and Berger were close enough to make my ballot, while Bresnahan and Welch may make your ballot someday.
   6. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2006 at 02:55 PM (#2204630)
1987 ballot

1987 was an amazing year for me. MN sports teams hadn't won anything since the 60's and now the Twins take a mediocre team and win it all. I got out of school to attend the ticker tape parade.

1) Johnson, Bob - better than Flick, Keeler, Magee, Slaughter, Sheckard, Snider, Hines, Carey, Ashburn, Sam Thompson, Irvin, Medwick, Doby, Bell, Willard Brown, Averill, Joe Kelley and Joe Jackson in my scoring system. That's in the 60th percentile among HoM outfielders and that's without minor league credit. Minor league credit boosts him above Goslin and Wheat. My spreadsheet may have flaws, but I can't see how it could be so flawed as to keep Bob Johnson out, especially as we dig deeper into the backlog for more outfielders. He was an 8 time all-star selection with 13 all-star caliber seasons. Add in 2 PCL all-star seasons as well. Win Shares is underrating his defense due to his poor teammates. Clearly #1 on this ballot.
2) Pierce, Billy - time to elect him. Compares well to Bunning, Drysdale, Ford & Marichal
3) Cash, Norm - Very good glove, 7-12 all star seasons. One MVP season.

4) Beckley, Jake - Beckley's long career of very good seasons is meritorious.
5) Bridges, Tommy - I'm his best friend. I'll say again we're short on war era pitching. It looks like he may bubble up on the ballots as we dig deeper.
6) Trouppe, Quincy - Top NGL player available. Top C available. Better than contemporaries that were earning multiple all-star selections in the majors (Walker Cooper, Rick Ferrell).
7) Leonard, Dutch
8) Cepeda, Orlando - very good hitter, only fair fielder
9) Trucks, Virgil - now I'm the only person voting for Leonard AND Trucks
10) Boyer, Ken - I like the glove a LOT, the bat was pretty good too
11) Minoso, Minnie - not as good as Bob Johnson, similar player
12) Wynn, Jim - I'm surprised I'm lower than the consensus
13) Bancroft, Dave - Great fielding SS, just enough offense
14) Kiner, Ralph - Sorts to the top of my slugger glut but only just barely
15) Cravath, Gavy - first time on ballot since I revised my scoring

16) Howard, Frank
17) Elliott, Bob
18) Keller, Charlie
19) Bonds, Bobby - shows up just behind the rest of the sluggers. 14-19 are practically tied.
20) Childs, Cupid - moving up but I still like Beckley better
21) Easter, Luke - anyone voting for Keller should put their imagination to use on Easter
22) Shocker, Urban
23) Quinn, Jack
24) Roush, Edd - better than the 1890s outfielders
25) Oms, Alejandro - another "if you like him look over Bob Johnson"
26) Ryan, Jimmy
27) Redding, Dick
28) Evers, Johnny
29) Smith, Hilton - I agree Hilton Smith and Dick Redding aren't too different. I've pegged Hilton Smith as Virgil Trucks without the WWII credit. That's probably higher praise on my ballot than it is on yours.
30) Ben Taylor
31) Van Haltren, George
32) Moore, Dobie

71) Sal Bando - Not quite as many good hitting years as Bob Elliott. Slightly less than the fielder Bob Elliott was. If you're loving Sal Bando I'd like to hear why you aren't voting for Bob Elliott.

91) Nellie Fox - I've tried boosting him in myriad different ways but he just didn't hit enough for a 2B. I like Bancroft a LOT better, more defensive value due to playing SS and more oomph out of his bat when compared to league hitting norms and position.
   7. ronw Posted: October 09, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#2204637)
1987 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.


1. Dick Redding If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

2. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

3. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

4. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

5. Lou Brock - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds like a HOMer to me.

6. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

7. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. I didn’t realize how dominant he was during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

8. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

9. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

10. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

11. Ralph Kiner 24.2 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 8 AS. That peak is hard to ignore.

12. Charlie Keller 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit, he probably should be at least tied with Kiner.

13. Jimmy Wynn 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

14. Minnie Minoso 21.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS (including Negro Leagues). I have another logjam of outfielders.

15. Ben Taylor I’m having trouble between Ben and Jake.

16. Jake Beckley 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

17. Bobby Bonds 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Definitely in the consideration set.

17. Larry Doyle 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

18. Bob Elliott 20.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. Also has appeared on my ballot before.

19. Quincy Trouppe I’m beginning to come around on him.

20. Sal Bando 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Better than I expected.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Missing top 10

Billy Pierce – 22.1 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 7 AS. Close, probably #21. I’ve voted for him before.

Cupid Childs – 18.6 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m surprised by the low WS/PA batting totals, compared to someone like Doyle. Still is very close to Larry, based on OWP. I have voted for him and probably will again.

Ken Boyer – 17.9 bWS/700 PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Not quite enough from a hitting position for me. I like Bob Elliott better.

Nellie Fox – 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Wouldn’t be a horrible selection, but I like a little more hitting.

New Notables

Mike Marshall – 31.4 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 5 AS. Relief pitchers tend to rack up the WS/IP totals. Contemporaries: Sparky Lyle 34.7, Rollie Fingers 33.0, John Hiller 34.7, Goose Gossage 36.9.
   8. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 09, 2006 at 03:52 PM (#2204688)
1987 ballot

Joe Torre, Elston Howard, and Ken Boyer make my PHOM with Dizzy Dean and Gavvy Cravath on deck.

1. Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) – Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey). If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

2. Cupid Childs (3, PHOM) – I am pretty sure that Childs has been in my top five every year since sometime in the 1940’s. He had a great peak and decent career length for a MIer of his era. Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion.

3. Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections.

4. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

5. Ralph Kiner (6¸ PHOM) – Seven straight HR titles is impressive no matter what the context. Kiner has a great peak, however I prefer Keller’s combination of OBP and decent defense to Kiner’s power.

6. Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) – I had him slightly higher until new numbers showed that he was more Ernie Banks without the decline phase than Hughie Jennings. Still, that is worthy of the HOM.

7. Bucky Walters (8, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

8. Jimmy Wynn (9, PHOM) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 25. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome. I wonder how he would have looked in an era where a lower replacement level meant great players had more great seasons.

9. Pete Browning (10, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me.

10. Quincey Trouppe (11, PHOM) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Mackey was.

11. Elston Howard (13, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

12. Ken Boyer (15, PHOM) – Very good defensive 3Bman. I will admit that he is receiving a sort of 3B bonus, but if I did not give these out there would be very, very, very few 3B in the HOM and I can’t justify that. Not much better than Elliot (#29) or Rosen (#17), but he was better.

13. Dizzy Dean (14) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.


14. Gavvy Cravath (16) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

15. Al Rosen (17) – Only the second time he has been on my ballot, he doesn’t get many votes, from me or from any one else. However, he has a great peak and some MiL credit to help with his career. He has consistently been just off my ballot and is very close to the next few players after him.


16-20 Oms, GVH, Pierce, Bresnahan, Fox
21-25 Berger, F. Howard, Doyle, McGraw, Willis
26-30 Shocker, Elliot, Newcombe, Roush, Rizzuto
31-35 Bando, Cepeda, Burns, Minoso, Chance
36-40 Munson, Veach, Lundy, Wilson, Bancroft
41-45 R.Thomas, Monroe, Leach, Ryan, Klein
46-50 C. Jones, Stephens, Johnson, Cicotte, Traynor

Required Disclosures:
Minoso – Very good player, but I just don’t see him as that different from a host of other corner outfield candidates like George Burns, Bobby Veach, and even Bob Johnson. If his NeL and MiL numbers were better he would have my support.

Pierce – Currently at #18, he is a decent candidate to make my PHOM before all is said and done.
Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet, but his current spot (#20) is about as high as he has been. In the same boat as Pierce when it comes to my PHOM. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat.

Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

Newbies:

Bando – Very similar to but not quite as good as Bob Elliot. I have Bando at #31.

Bonds – I don’t see much that separates him from the pack, just behind the Burns/Minoso/Veach/Johnson cohort at #57.

Marshall – One big year but not enough around it.
   9. Chris Cobb Posted: October 09, 2006 at 04:12 PM (#2204710)
Cupid Childs – 18.6 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m surprised by the low WS/PA batting totals, compared to someone like Doyle. Still is very close to Larry, based on OWP. I have voted for him and probably will again.

The difference between Childs and Doyle by this measure is exaggerated somewhat by the use of PA as a measure. Since WS are awarded per game, players with more PA/g will have fewer WS/PA. Childs career rate of PA/g, playing in a high-offense era, was 4.64, Doyle's 4.18. Converting their rates to bWS/162 g, I get 19.2 for Childs and 21.77 for Doyle. WS still likes Doyle better as a hitter, but by about 2.5 bws/season, rather than 4 bws/season.

BTW, WARP does not agree that Doyle was better offensively, giving Childs a .295 EQA and Doyle a .294.
   10. Jim Sp Posted: October 09, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#2204737)
Wilbur Wood and Mike Marshall sure are interesting...but I'm not voting for them. Disclosures: Pierce #17, Childs #35.

1) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. I was a WS guy but here in particular I think Warp has it right—great defense. PHoM in 1970.
2) Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years.
3) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3.
4) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
5) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. PHoM in 1970.
6) Bobby Bonds
7) Dick Redding--
8) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8.
9) KellerAdded back the war credit.
10) Elliott--PHoM in 1960.
11) Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control. PHoM 1975
12) Dobie Moore--
13) Munson--yup, I like catchers.
14) Jimmy Wynn
15) Kiner
   11. karlmagnus Posted: October 09, 2006 at 05:36 PM (#2204829)
Bobby Bonds short career, not quite good enough, just off bottom of my consideration set (Boog Powell’s significantly better, for example.) Bando, when you adjust for position at 3B, slightly better than Bonds, about equal with Boog. Marshall short career even if you add 50% to IP and not that good.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

3. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

4. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

5. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

6. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

7. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

8. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

9. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12-13-12-13-13-14-14-12-11-12) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

10. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.
   12. karlmagnus Posted: October 09, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2204831)
11. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

12. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14-N/A-15-14-14) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

13. (N/A-15-N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey. Back on again as Stretch was elected.

14. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

15. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. Back on ballot in this quiet year.

OFF BALLOT

16. Billy Pierce. Surprisngly good ERA+ in weaker league but not a Yankee. 3307 innings at 119 ERA+ 211-169 definitely better than Redding and Quinn, somewhere around Maglie. Swayed by consensus so moved him up towards ballot.

17. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

18. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

19. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

20. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

21. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays

22. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater.
23. Ben Taylor.
24. Orlando Cepeda
25. Norm Cash
26. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
27. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
28. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
29. Lou Brock
30. Mickey Vernon
31. Thurmon Munson
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Sal Maglie.
34. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
35. (N/A) Heinie Manush
36. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
37. Bob Elliott
38. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
42. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
43. Kiki Cuyler
44. Deacon McGuire
45. Boog Powell
46. Sal Bando. 1790 hits at 119. TB+BB/PA .472, TB+BB/Outs .700. About as good as Boog and better than Bobby Bonds, when you adjust 3B/OF.
47. Jim Fregosi.
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pie Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Curt Simmons
58. Roger Bresnahan.
59. Waite Hoyt.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Vada Pinson
62. Gil Hodges
63. Jules Thomas.
64. Rico Carty.
65. Wilbur Cooper
66. Bruce Petway.
67. Jack Clements
68. Bill Monroe
69. Herb Pennock
70. Chief Bender
71. Ed Konetchy
72. Jesse Tannehill
73. Bobby Veach
74. Lave Cross
75. Tommy Leach.
76. Tom York

Moore hugely overrated; off my consideration set.
Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions.
   13. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 05:41 PM (#2204834)
Bobby Bonds short career, not quite good enough, just off bottom of my consideration set (Boog Powell’s significantly better, for example.)

They were comparable hitters, except that Bonds was the superior fielder and base stealer. I can't see a case for Powell over Bonds.
   14. karlmagnus Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:02 PM (#2204858)
Bonds 1886 hits at 130 vs Powell 1776 at 134. You can argue it, but Powell looks better to me. Neither close to ballot, or ever likely to be (Bonds probably about #80, Powell #45, but that's close.)
   15. Adam Schafer Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:08 PM (#2204864)
Some more reassesment on my ballot this week. Still tweaking my new system some. Not a lot of change, but Bucky Walters is the big loser this year on my ballot after a strong showing last year. I know I'm going to catch a lot of flak as low as I have some people's favorites listed, and some unpopular choices on a lot of my ballot, but so be it. I have decided to be a lot more generous with war credit than I previously have.

1 Jake Beckley - lots of career value

2 Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in,
but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part. Very similar to Beckley and just a miniscule away from him in my rankings

3 Nellie Fox - Very similar to Sewell

4 Quincy Trouppe -

5 Jack Quinn - I couldn't understand what Joe saw in Quinn until I redid my ranking system. I honestly don't think that I ever gave Quinn any serious consideration until last week. With spots 5 - 13 being VERY close, after giving him credit for 1916 and 1917 (and only average credit at that), he makes a huge jump with the additional 2 years added onto his already lengthy career. And to think he didn't make the majors until age 25. The man could've won 300 games just having average years from 1904-1908..I don't give him any credit for that, it's a fun thought though.

6 Pete Browning - May move down a bit if I decide to give more of a discount for his AA years.

7 Ralph Kiner - not a lot of career, but enough

8 Sam Rice - yes, I know that I am one of only 5 people voting for him, but I'm going to stand my ground

9 George Van Haltren - good career with some good HOM quality seasons

10 Edd Roush - his great neice was not too thrilled that I was talking about her on here last week

11 Wally Schang - with a catchers bonus, he makes it up this high

12 Chuck Klein - Crazy peak, a few career years for padding, and you know me, I like career

13 Don Newcombe - I'm giving him full credit for time lost in the military. An 8 year run (1949 - 1956) with the numbers he had is outstanding. If I felt comfortable giving him Nel or MiL credit, he'd easily be in the top 5.

14 Cecil Travis - Again, giving full credit for time lost in the military. I don't find it hard to imagine he would've won a couple batting titles, had an additional 800 hits, and would've been a sure fire HOF and HOM player with him still calling it quits at age 33. Now imagine he had all of that, AND he didn't get the frostbite in the war. I can only imagine....

15 Gavy Cravath - he had some outstanding seasons

16 Lou Brock
17 Bucky Walters
18 Hugh Duffy
19 Orlando Cepeda
20 John McGraw


Luis Aparicio
Mickey Welch
Mike Marshall
Eddie Cicotte
Heinie Manush
Addie Joss
Carl Mays
Johnny Pesky
Dom Dimaggio
Jimmy Ryan
George Kell
Dizzy Dean
Bob Johnson
Minnie Minoso
Harvey Kuenn
Phil Rizzuto
Urban Shocker
Catfish Hunter
Frank Howard
Gil Hodges
Dick Redding
Billy Pierce
Vern Stephens
Pie Traynor
Bob Elliot
Ray Schalk
Rabbit Maranville
Mike Tiernan
Ed Konetchy
Charlie Keller
Al Rosen
Bobby Veach
Herman Long
Ernie Lombardi
Larry Doyle
Tony Oliva
Hack Wilson
Dizzy Trout
Dave Bancroft
Roger Bresnahan
Wilbur Cooper
Jack Chesbro
Ed Williamson
Vic Willis
Mickey Vernon
Bobby Bonds
Jesse Tannehill
Vada Pinson
Virgil Trucks
Tony Mullane
Sal Bando
Johnny Sain
Joe Judge
Norm Cash
Ken Boyer
Elston Howard
Charley Jones
Dick Bartell
Rocky Colavito
Stu Miller
Boog Powell
Smokey Joe Wood
Walker Cooper
Tommy Bridges
Sam Leever
Dobie Moore
Jimmy Wynn
Thurman Munson
Cupid Childs
Hal Schumacher
Wally Berger
John Hiller
   16. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:21 PM (#2204884)
Bonds 1886 hits at 130 vs Powell 1776 at 134. You can argue it, but Powell looks better to me.

Which can be reasonably argued, karlmagnus, but there's still Bonds' defense and base stealing, which dwarfs Powell's talents in those departments.

Like you, I don't have either of them on my ballot (though Bonds may sneak in at the bottom shortly), so it's really a moot point in the end.
   17. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:49 PM (#2204911)
I've only got 13 slots between Boog Powell and Bobby Bonds which ain't much.
   18. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:53 PM (#2204917)
1987 ballot

I did a lot of reorganizing this year.

1. Bucky Walters:
Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. I like peak in my pitchers, and he’s got it. That’s why he’s above Pierce for me. Am I his bestest friend?

2. Quincy Trouppe:
Best catcher available. Too bad we can’t find more consensus on this guy. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different.

3. Charley Jones:
Best left fielder available. Sorry Minnie, sorry Bob, Bobby, and Ralph, oh and George J. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices all because he wanted to get paid. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

4. Billy Pierce:
Wonderful 1950s ace pitcher, and, with luck, the next worthy member of the HOM. The innings may seem low, but I believe it is, in some part, due to his frequent use as a fireman. Lots o’ leverage there, plus he was an excellently effective moundsman. Is he better than Waddell? If you’re a fan of Waddell, then who cares? He’s at least as good, and that’s good enough. If you don’t like Waddell, then I say yes, but it’s not by much.

5. Wilbur Cooper:
Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

6. Cupid Childs:
Best second baseman available. Shaped like a hydrant, hit like a monster with some indication that park killed power. Absolutely dominant at his position throughout the 1890s.

7. Sal Bando:
There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that
a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

8. Nellie Fox:
Yeah, this one’s surprised me too. He’s been remarkably close to my ballot for a while, but I never would have dreamed he’d have sniffed it. But the truth be told, I’ve been ignoring him a bit because I have a tendency to prefer “my kind of player” and Fox isn’t that kind of player. But truth be told, he’s the second-best 2B on the ballot, and he’s not very far behind Cupid, and he’s among the top 15 2Bs we’ve seen so far. Those are excellent credentials. He also exhibits good positional dominance and was a many-time All-Star type player. He wouldn’t be the HOM’s best player, but he’s a very good selection.

9. Tony Mullane:
Again with the unfair labor practice guys! Mullane racked up great seasons in the 1880s, got a one-year booting, continued racking up great seasons, pitched well in the 1890s NL, and looks a heckuva lot better than Mickey Welch to me.

10. Larry Doyle:
I’m coming around on him. The dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

11. Hugh Duffy:
His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Roush/Wynn gang. See Roush comment below.

12. Edd Roush:
I just don’t exactly know what to think about the third-tier CFs. Roush, Duffy, Ryan, Van H., Wynn. They are so friggin’ close. And my current system and my Keltner-based system don’t agree on the order in each instance. But I’m coming to rely more on the Keltner-type system and it’s support of candidates who exhibit a lot of dominance over league and position. Roush was ever so slightly more dominant than Duffy, so I’d like to give him the nod. Though, in fairness, I think that Duffy had slightly better positional peers. Roush battled Max Carey with a little Dode Paskert and Lloyd Waner tossed in too. Duffy had Ryan, VH, Hamilton, and Griffin in CF, plus some fine players at the corners when he played there. Mike W., you owe me a few favors now... ; )

13 . Pete Browning:
Fabulous hitter. True he benefited from weak competition in the early AA, but also true that he hit great in the PL and early 90s NL. I’m comfortable that he was a sufficiently good enough hitter to have a ballot spot near the other CFs.

14. Roger Bresnahan:
Outstanding catcher-hybrid candidate. Good peak, especially for the position, and a robust offensive game. Bresnahan nq Freehan, but long since good enough. When’s his election date?

15. Tommy Leach:
Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.


NEW GUYS

Big Daddy Bonds:
A nice peak, but not awesome for a RF. Fizzled out a little early, so the peak ain’t enough to carry the load for the shortish career (shortish for a RF).

Mike Marshall:
I love his relief peak, and I’m not totally unconvinced he’s un-ballotworthy. But I also think that one or two relievers per decade is close to right and even in 1987, we know that Goose Gossage is taking a 1970s slot, and I think that we’ll benefit from some direct comparison among Fingers, Marshall, and Hiller. Also, his moustache was not as cool as Goose’s or Fingers’. Or Al Hrabosky’s for that matter.

RETURNING TOP TENS

Minnie Minoso:
How’s he much better than Ralph Kiner? He’s Dwight Evans and that’s probably not enough for my tastes. His MiL credit and NgL credit are ultimately helpful but not case-making information. They only take him one slot above Lou Brock, and that’s not good enough.

Ralph Kiner:
Not impressed. I mean I am, but I’m not. How’s he much better than Minnie Minoso?

Dobie Moore:
I really like Dobie Moore. The current thinking shows him as a super valuable player. But I don’t yet see enough to push him up into my electable area. I’m inclined to give him more credit during the Wreckers years than he’s getting because he truly hit the ground running in 1920. I suspect he was better than a rising talent on the Wreckers, that he had left 3B quite early in the Wreckers’ era, and that quite possibly he was quickly the team’s top player as a hard-hitting shortstop. Too bad I can’t prove it.

Boyer:
I had him 15 last week, I backed off this week just a bit. He’s not far at all from my ballot.

Elston Howard:
Best catcher on the board...no. Best black catcher on the board...no. Best multi-position catcher on the board...no. Best catcher who played in the NgL on the board...No. OK, he's just real good, OK? Great peak, best catcher in AL for a few years running, MVP caliber seasons, all good stuff. He’s been on and off my ballot. This week off.

Redding:
As I’ve noted previously, I’m very unsure about Redding. I felt very sure about Mendez, but I’ve always had trouble with Cannonball.

Wynn:
With all those 1890s CFs on my ballot, maybe the universe is trying to tell me something? Maybe it’s Wynn who should be on and one of them off? He never dominated his league like they did, and that’s pretty much the difference.
   19. AJMcCringleberry Posted: October 09, 2006 at 08:02 PM (#2204984)
1. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

2. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

3. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

4. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

5. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

6. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

7. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

8. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

9. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

10. Minnie Minoso - Very good hitter, over 350 win shares after adding his negro league career.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Billy Pierce - Long career, very good peak. Led league in CG 3 straight years, top 5 in 5 of 6 years. Top 5 in shutouts 5 of 6 years

13. Bobby Bonds - 130 OPS+. 461 SB, 332 HR, 5 30/30 seasons.

14. Vada Pinson - Good hitting centerfielder for a long time. Top 100 for career in numerous stats including XBH, TB, RC, R, and hits.

15. Norm Cash - 139 career OPS+, monster season in 1961. Also a good fielder.

16. Hugh Duffy
17. Edd Roush
18. Bob Elliott
19. Tommy Leach
20. Harry Hooper
21. George Van Haltren
22. Alejandro Oms
23. Buzz Arlett
24. Orlando Cepeda
25. Gil Hodges
26. Burleigh Grimes
27. Willie Davis
28. Fielder Jones
29. Dick Redding - Outside of his 3 year peak he doesn't impress me.
30. Pie Traynor
31. Ralph Kiner - Nice peak, but not much career value.
32. Cupid Childs - See Kiner.
33. Wally Berger
34. Vern Stephens
35. Dick Bartell
   20. Chris Fluit Posted: October 09, 2006 at 08:35 PM (#2205030)
1. Dick Redding, P (2). PHOM- 1975. I think that the Hall of Fame underestimated Redding because they overestimated his league play. Redding's best years clearly come before he entered organized leagues, occuring during the 1910s and then in the east in the early '20s when there wasn't an eastern league. Even during his few league seasons, Redding's teams played only forty games or less not giving him much of a chance to build up a league record. His independent record is spectacular. His winning percentage is .100 points better than his team's. He broke the 300 innings pitched barrier more often than Coveleski, Faber or Rixey. And if not for time missed due to military service in World War I (Redding missed the bulk of the 1918 and 1919 seasons), we'd be looking at someone with MLEs of greater than 250 wins.

2. Quincy Trouppe, C (3). PHOM- 1977. A great-hitting catcher with patience and power who was able to lead his team to several pennants and a 1947 Negro League Championship. Plus, he was picked for 5 Negro League All-Star teams despite spending his best years south of the border.

3. Nellie Fox, 2B (4). PHOM- 1976. One of the best career candidates on the ballot (61st all-time in hits), Fox has a clear edge over the other second basemen by scoring gray ink in four more seasons than Childs, Doyle or Schoendiest (11 to 7 a piece).

4. Alejandro Oms, CF (5). PHOM- 1984. A very underrated outfielder who was among the best in the Negro Leagues in the 1920s and was still good enough to be a league-leader his native Cuban leagues through much of the '30s.

5. Billy Pierce, P (6). PHOM- 1979. I'm excited that he's on the verge of election. TSN Pitcher of the Year for both 1956 and 1957.

6. Lou Brock, LF (7). PHOM- 1985. Arguably the best career candidate on the ballot, Brock used his speed to accumulate 486 doubles and 141 triples (leading the league in each category once) as well as those notorious 938 stolen bases.

7. Burleigh Grimes, P (8). PHOM- 1984. I don't have the personal attachment to Grimes that I do to most of the other players on the ballot. But with the second best career totals for a pitcher and the peak that Welch is missing, I find no fault with his numbers.

8. Minnie Minoso, LF (9). PHOM- 1985. He was an All-Star as soon as he entered the Major Leagues, getting named to the actual team 7 times and picking up MVP votes 8 times. He was routinely among the league leaders, finishing in the top ten eight or nine times each for AVG, OBP, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, 2Bs and Stolen Bases. A little bit of Negro League credit at the beginning of his career gives him the added boost to offset the lack of black ink.

9. Don Newcombe, P (10). PHOM- this year. Military credit gives Newcombe seven outstanding seasons from 1949-1953 and 1955-1956, more peak seasons than any other pitcher on the ballot now that Rube Waddell has been elected.

10. Luis Aparicio, SS (13). PHOM- this year. He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He won five straight Gold Gloves from 1958-1962 and then another 4 in alternating years from 1964-1970. Plus, like Joe Sewell, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from 1958 to 1973 and leading the league his league twice in 1969 and 1973.

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (11). I'm starting to cool on Cepeda as the number of '60s inductees piles up, but for now I still prefer his peak to career candidates like Beckley and his career to peak candidates like Chance.

12. Hugh Duffy, CF (14). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

13. Ken Boyer, 3B (15). Too close to Santo to be kept out of the HOM for much longer.

14. Hilton Smith, P (n/a). Bill James Negro League Cy Young for 1938, 1940 and 1941.

15. Ernie Lombardi, C (n/a). Lombardi is back on my ballot for the first time since 1980. His offense trumps any other catcher on this ballot (with the exception of Trouppe).

Necessary Disclosures on Top 15 Returnees:
Ralph Kiner: I've voted for Kiner before and he's the top corner outfielder not on my ballot, but right now that only gets him to 25th overall.
Cupid Childs: I just don't think Childs is that big a deal. For his era, I'd rather elect Beckley or Duffy. For his position, I'd rather elect Fox, Doyle or Monroe.
Jimmy Wynn: Not good enough for not long enough.
Jake Beckley and Dobie Moore: returning at #'s 11 and 12, these two polar opposites (career candidate at first base, peak candidate at shortstop) are currently 16th and 17th on my ballot.
Bucky Walters: returning at #14, I've noticed some things that are making me take another long look at Walters. He might make a big leap onto my ballot soon as I'm getting ready to join the Bucky bandwagon. But I decided to stick with my preliminary ballot for now.
   21. yest Posted: October 09, 2006 at 08:52 PM (#2205060)
1987 ballot
in one of my hardest pHoM decisions ever till next year the winners are
Eddie Yost, Orlando Cepada, and Stuffy McInnis
all from underrepresented eras (except for the last third of McInnis ) in my pHoM

1. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
2. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
9. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
10. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
12. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
13. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
14. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
15. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
16. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
17. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
18. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
19. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
20. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
21. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
22. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
23. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
24. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
25. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
26. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
27. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
28. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
29. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
30. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
31. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
32. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
33. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
35. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (makes my pHoM this year)
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
37. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (makes my pHoM this year)
38. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (makes my pHoM this year)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Trouppe and Dobie Moore barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe League stats seem to show he lacked
Ken Boyer a great candidate for the HoVG
Billy Pierce not good enough long enough
Cupid Childs is in my top 100
Jimmy Wynn’s home road splits for walks 645 at home and 579 on the road I don’t see any case for his being in the HoM
   22. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 09, 2006 at 08:56 PM (#2205068)
Amazingly, yest, you and I do have some consensus this year. Moving Nellie Fox onto the ballot means we have two players in common! ; )

If you'd have just moved Roush up by one, we'd have an amazing three!
   23. yest Posted: October 09, 2006 at 09:27 PM (#2205097)
Amazingly, yest, you and I do have some consensus this year. Moving Nellie Fox onto the ballot means we have two players in common! ; )

If you'd have just moved Roush up by one, we'd have an amazing three!

what's even more amazing is we have 3 in common without Roush (Nellie Fox, Hugh Duffy, and Pete Browning)
   24. Rusty Priske Posted: October 10, 2006 at 12:30 PM (#2205454)
PHoM: Bobby Bonds, Ken Boyer, Orlando Cepeda


1. Jake Beckley (2,3,3)

Very overdue.

2. Lou Brock (7,1,x)

Woefully undervalued.

3. Nellie Fox (4,8,7)
4. Dobie Moore (8,2,6)

5. Mickey Welch (5,5,5)
6. George Van Haltren (3,4,4)

See Beckley

7. Jimmy Wynn (6,11,9)
8. Edd Roush (10,7,12)
9. Hugh Duffy (12,9,8)
10. Tommy Leach (9,6,10)
11. Quincy Trouppe (11,10,13)

12. Bobby Bonds (new)

Better than he appears to be getting credit for, but for from a first ballot player with the quality of the backlog that we have.

13. Norm Cash (13,12,11)
14. Orlando Cepeda (15,x,14)
15. Cupid Childs (x,13,x)

16-20. Minoso, Rice, Boyer, Kiner, Pierce
21-25. Mullane, Johnson, Redding, Ryan, Streeter
26-30. Willis, Strong, Grimes, Gleason, Greene
   25. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 10, 2006 at 01:15 PM (#2205481)
what's even more amazing is we have 3 in common without Roush (Nellie Fox, Hugh Duffy, and Pete Browning)

Hey, you're right! Apparently the most amazing thing is that I'm not wearing glasses.... ; )
   26. Daryn Posted: October 10, 2006 at 04:39 PM (#2205679)
The new guys don’t make my ballot. Bonds makes my consideration set.

Pierce and Wynn are between 30 and 50, which means that they are very close to the ballot. I don't like my 9th pick much better than my 50th. The rest are in my top 20.

Childs is not close for me -- I can't seem to translate his career stats into enough of a career.

1. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed put him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people in the history of the world with more MLB hits than Brock: 21. I'm more sure I'm right about Brock than Welch, so I've flip-flopped them.

2. Mickey Welch, p – Back at the top for the first time in awhile. 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.


3. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

4. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me. I hope we are right about him. He seems to be a bit of a tweener -- neither a stellar peak or a stellar career, but pretty good at both. Kind of like Tiant.

6. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

7. Ralph Kiner, of – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+. A freak pick on my ballot with his woeful ~1450 hits, but I just like everything else a lot.

8. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I’m not sure what to do at this point on my ballot because I don’t think any of these guys are deserving. That makes it harder for me to distinguish between them and somewhat arbitrarily give points to those who make the top 15 and no points to the rest.

9. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate. Kiner and Joss are already on my ballot because of this, and Moore is close for the same reason.

10. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

11. George Van Haltren, of – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

12. Jimmy Ryan, of – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

13. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.

14. Pie Traynor, 3b -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star. First time on the ballot in decades.

15. Ken Boyer, 3b – nice glove – pretty indistinguishable from Gordon, Sewell and Leach. First time on the ballot.

16. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher. Happens to fill a catcher gap -- but doesn't get a boost from me because of it.

17. Dobie Moore
18. Minnie Minoso -- it is his last two years that put him over the top for me.
19. Aparicio -- those 1000 extra outs separate him from Fox, as does the poorer defence. Happens to fill a shortstop gap -- but doesn't get a boost from me because of it.

20. Dizzy Dean (Tiant will likely place right in front of Dizzy next year)
   27. Sean Gilman Posted: October 10, 2006 at 09:44 PM (#2205981)
1987

1. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

2. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Cupid Childs (4)--I don’t understand how he fell through the cracks, maybe things will turn around in the upcoming backlog years, but with the growing spectre of timelining, I doubt it. (1938)

4. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

5. Minnie Minoso (6)--Comparison with Clemente showed I’d been underrating his nice balance of career and peak in favor of more one-sided candidates. (1979)

6. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

7. Edd Roush (8)--Another beneficiary of the Clemente Comparison. A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. (1985)

8. Ken Boyer (9)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

9. Hugh Duffy (10)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. Counting players not in my PHOM, I’ve got 11 Outfielders between Duffy at #15 and Vada Pinson at #35. There really isn’t much difference between any of them. (1964)

10. George Van Haltren (11)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

11. Carl Mays (12) (1968)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit.

12. Alejandro Oms (13)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

(Sam Thompson)

13. Ralph Kiner (14)--Gotta love the peak.

(Bobby Doerr)
(Joe Medwick)
(Richie Ashburn)

14. Jimmy Wynn (15)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)

15. Bobby Bonds (-)--Very comparable to Wynn as a peak/career combination while the outfield glutcontinues to dominate my borderline.

16. Frank Howard (16)
(Joe Gordon)
17. Nellie Fox (17)
18. Quincy Trouppe (18)
(Red Faber)
19. Bob Elliott (19)
(Red Ruffing)
20. Vada Pinson (20)
21. Bucky Walters (21)
22. Wally Berger (22)
(Ted Lyons)
23. Dick Redding (23)
24. Ed Williamson (24)
25. Dobie Moore (25)
26. Sal Bando (-)
26. Norm Cash (26)
27. Orlando Cepeda (27)
(Bob Lemon)
28. Billy Pierce (28)
29. Vern Stephens(29)
30. Roger Bresnahan (30)
31. Lou Brock (31)
32. Dave Bancroft (32)
33. Jimmy Ryan (33)
34. Charlie Keller (34)
35. Tony Lazzeri (35)
36. Phil Rizzuto (36)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
37. Jake Beckley (38)
38. Bobby Veach (39)
39. Dizzy Dean (40)
40. Gavy Cravath (41)


Sam Thompson (!), Ralph Kiner and Bobby Doerr make my PHOM this year.
   28. sunnyday2 Posted: October 10, 2006 at 09:58 PM (#2205997)
>Sam Thompson (!)... make my PHOM this year.

Gee, Sean, that seems pretty rash, you sure you don't want to think about that a bit? ;-)
   29. Sean Gilman Posted: October 10, 2006 at 10:08 PM (#2206004)
I've thought Pete Browning was the player everyone thought Thompson was for almost a century now. But I guess I like Thompson better than the consensus likes Browning.
   30. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 11, 2006 at 12:55 AM (#2206211)
Wow yest. For all of the agreement you have with Yest, you go and surprise us (well, at least me) again with Stuffy McInnis in your PHOM. Just for some perspective, McInnis didn't make my top 100 when I started in 1935, but George Kelly did.
   31. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 11, 2006 at 01:22 AM (#2206275)
Wow yest. For all of the agreement you have with Yest, you go and surprise us (well, at least me) again with Stuffy McInnis in your PHOM. Just for some perspective, McInnis didn't make my top 100 when I started in 1935, but George Kelly did.

Not that he belongs in the HoM, but I do like McInnis better than Kelly by a considerable amount, Mark.
   32. sunnyday2 Posted: October 11, 2006 at 02:16 AM (#2206393)
Just for some perspective, Stuffy McInnis led the league in FA 6 times!

And those OPS+ of 83-88-85-97-83, well, that was just his decline phase. Can't a guy decline in peace around here? I mean, before that he had an OPS+ over 100 (in more than 100 games) 8 times. Wow.

And he once walked 94 times.

In 2 years. (Other than that he never walked more than 58 times in 2 years.) No wonder he got 2400 hits. I mean that's a lot of hits, resulting in an OBP of .343. Only 3 points less than Matty McIntyre (and turning to the next page, 6 points less than Mark McLemore. But, then, on the previous page, he is 10 points better than Willie McGee. And then taking just any old page at random, that's 8 points worse than Billy Rogell but lots better than Stan Rojek and Rich Rollins. Not quite up to Ron Roenicke or Johnny Romano or IRod or E (for Ellie) Rod.)
   33. DavidFoss Posted: October 11, 2006 at 02:35 AM (#2206418)
Wow yest. For all of the agreement you have with Yest, you go and surprise us (well, at least me) again with Stuffy McInnis in your PHOM.

If my math is correct, that's 35 HOM-ers ranking below everyone on yest's ballot -- including McInnis. I suppose the HOM is up to 170 now.
   34. jingoist Posted: October 11, 2006 at 03:18 AM (#2206506)
Stuffy McInnis?
That's gotta be old Stuffy's first ever vote.

What made old McInnis Stuffy?
For that matter, who can tell me what made Stirnweiss Snuffy?

If Stuffy and Snuffy played on the same team could they have had a double play called: Snuffy to Stuffy to Snuffy or; a Stuffy to Snuffy to Stuffy?

That's what modern-day baseball is missing; guys nicknamed Stuffy or Snuffy.
Snuffy Tejeda or Stuffy Pujols; whadaya think?
   35. OCF Posted: October 11, 2006 at 04:42 AM (#2206610)
Stuffy McInnis?
That's gotta be old Stuffy's first ever vote.


For the record, yest didn't vote for him; only the top 15 count. So he's still among the may who have never received a vote.
   36. OCF Posted: October 11, 2006 at 04:53 AM (#2206617)
1987 Ballot.

1. Billy Pierce (4, 4, 2, 1, 2) Lost starts (and thus IP) to being used - effectively - as a reliever. RA+ equivalent record of 218-150 with years of equivalent 18-5 (that's his outlier RA+ of 201), 20-10, 19-9, and 19-11.
2. Larry Doyle (5, 5, 3, 2, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
3. Quincy Trouppe (8, 8, 6, 5, 4) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
4. Orlando Cepeda (9, 10, 8, 6, 5) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I would take Cepeda over him.
5. Jimmy Wynn (-, 11, 9, 7, 6) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
6. George Van Haltren (10, 12, 10, 8, 7) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
7. Norm Cash (11, 13, 11, 9, 8) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
8. Tommy Bridges (14, 16, 14, 12, 9) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
9. Ralph Kiner (15, 17, 15, 13, 10) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
10. Bucky Walters (12, 14, 12, 10, 11) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
11. Frank Howard (16, 18, 16, 14, 12) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
12. Orestes Miñoso (17, 19, 17, 16, 13) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value. Not the offensive value of the big HR hitters, but more mobile on defense.
13. Ken Boyer (18, 20, 18, 17, 14) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
14. Lou Brock (---, 15, 15) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
15. Sal Bando (new) I had Bob Elliott set to move into this position, but, head-to-head, I decided I liked Bando better.
16. Bob Elliott (19, 21, 19, 18, 16) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
17. Jake Beckley (20, 22, 20, 19, 17) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
18. Dick Redding (21, 23, 21, 20, 18)
19. Luis Aparicio (22, 24, 22, 21, 19) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
20. Bobby Bonds (new) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
21. Hugh Duffy (23, 25, 23, 22, 20) Nothing new to say after all these years.
22. Rabbit Maranville (24, 26, 24, 23, 21) Glove and career length.
23. Mickey Vernon (25, 27, 25, 24, 22) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
24. Nellie Fox (26, 28, 26, 25, 23) Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
25. Phil Rizzuto (27, 29, 27, 26, 24) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
26. Cupid Childs (28, 30, 28, 27, 25) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
27. Edd Roush (29, -, 29, 28, 26)
28. Vern Stephens (30, -, 30, 29, 27)
29. Dobie Moore (---, 30, 28)
30. Elston Howard (----, 29)
31. Bob Johnson (----, 30)
   37. sunnyday2 Posted: October 11, 2006 at 12:22 PM (#2206689)
1987

HoM continues to catch up to me: Last year you pick Waddell, this year I pick Hack and Ashburn…but also the Baby Bull, Orlando Cepeda.

1. Dobie Moore (1-1-1, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

2. Edd Roush (4-3-7, PHoM 1976)—Roush’ peak of 38-33-30 makes absolutely no apologies to Kiner’s 37-35-30

3. Pete Browning (5-5-8, PHoM 1961)—moves ahead of Kiner among the “sluggers”

4. Ralph Kiner (6-6-2, PHoM 1964)—great hitter, and not just SA but OBP too

5. Larry Doyle (7-7-6, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Edd Roush

6. Addie Joss (9-10-13, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available, another lost cause but I can’t kick the habit

7. Nellie Fox (11-12-9, PHoM 1971)—one of the most valuable <100 OPS+ players ever

8. Charley Jones (8-9-12, PHoM 1921)—trying to abandon Charley for years, just can’t do it

9. Charlie Keller (10-11-22, PHoM 1985)—“So, are you a peak voter or not?” “Yes, I am” “So, why the hell aren’t you supporting Charlie Keller?” “Well, I am, now, finally”

(9a. Stan Hack [13b-16a-13a, PHoM 1987])

10. Orlando Cepeda (13-17-15, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard and Cravath, can’t PHoM them all in one year

(10a. Richie Ashburn [13c-15a-26a, PHoM 1987])

11. Minnie Minoso (17-19-19, PHoM 1970)
12. Eddie Cicotte (14-13-14)—with no death credit!

13. Dick Redding (12-13-33-30, PHoM 1971)—despite questions re. HoF data

14. Dizzy Dean (33-33-20)—every time I take a new look at pitchers, something like this happens

15. Frank Howard (16-14-15)—indistinguishable from a whole list of sluggers

Close

16. Phil Rizzuto (15-18-17)
(16a. Bobby Doerr [18a-20a-13b])
17. Chuck Klein (39-39-36)
(17a. Jim Bunning [19b-20b-29a])
18. Elston Howard (17-20-18)—with some extra credit for artificially limited opportunities
(18a. Joe Sewell [23b-25b-23])
19. Gavvy Cravath (18-16-42)
20. Ed Williamson (20-22-19, PHoM 1924)

Also Pretty Good

21. Norm Cash (21-21-24)
22. Hilton Smith (22-24-25)
23. Ken Boyer (23-23-30)
24. Marvin Williams (24-27-x)
25. Luke Easter (25-25-x)
(25a. Willie Keeler [25a-25a-47a])
26. Alejandro Oms (26-28-31)
27. Bucky Walters (27-30-53)
28. Don Newcombe (28-31-x)
29. Tommy Bond (46-43-21, PHoM 1929)
30. Bobby Bonds (new)

31. Vern Stephens (32-36-27)
32. Cupid Childs (31-35-40, PHoM 1925)
33. Hack Wilson (47-49-38)
34. Rocky Colavito (29-29-73)
(34a. Wes Ferrell [29a-28b-46a])
35. Pie Traynor (48-50-44)
36. Hugh Duffy (30-32-29)
37. Lefty Gomez (38-38-57)
38. Lou Brock (34-34-new)
39. Tony Oliva (35-37-48)
40. Sal Bando (new)
   38. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 11, 2006 at 12:58 PM (#2206704)
Stuffy played a few games at short. And if you teleported him and Snuffy ahead to 2006, and you signed one of Japan's biggest stars, you could have a DP combo of Stuffy to Snuffy to Tuffy. Or you could teleport someone else and switch his position and have Stuffy to Snuffy to Hugh Duffy!
   39. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 11, 2006 at 03:14 PM (#2206833)
Stuffy played a few games at short. And if you teleported him and Snuffy ahead to 2006, and you signed one of Japan's biggest stars, you could have a DP combo of Stuffy to Snuffy to Tuffy. Or you could teleport someone else and switch his position and have Stuffy to Snuffy to Hugh Duffy!

S'nuff about all of this Stuff!

:-D
   40. Daryn Posted: October 11, 2006 at 03:20 PM (#2206843)
6. Addie Joss (9-10-13, PHoM 1967)— best ERA+ available, another lost cause but I can’t kick the habit

I have Joss on my ballot, but Joe Wood, and I guess Jim Devlin, would beg to differ with the comment above.
   41. Ardo Posted: October 11, 2006 at 03:32 PM (#2206858)
1987 Ballot

Sparky Anderson forfeited his mojo in the ALCS. The Tigers would not be the same for many years.

Last year, we elected McCovey (was #1) and Waddell (just off-ballot, a selection I'm OK with).

1. Billy Pierce - many excellent RA+ years, plus extensive leverage credit.
2. Charley Jones - only glaring 19th Cent. omission - the Dick Allen of his era.
3. Wally Schang - his durability was excellent for his era. It's sloppy thinking to compare him head-on to Lombardi or the '70s catchers.
4. Jimmy Wynn - Astrodomed out of several dominant counting-stat seasons.
5. Quincy Trouppe - a similar type of player to Joe Torre.
6. Norm Cash - One Big Year, excellent 1B defense, 139 OPS+.
7. Dick Redding - Can't decide if he's Vic Willis (not enough, IMO) or a bit better than that (and a deserving HoMer).
8. Ken Boyer - Strong eight-year prime, but little else.
9. Nellie Fox - Great defense, long career, just enough punch.
10. Orestes Minoso - vaults up vs. the other players in his immediate post-integration era cohort.
11. Edd Roush - a comparable and superior player to Richie Ashburn.
12. Rabbit Maranville - loads and loads of career value.
13. Orlando Cepeda - Stretch McCovey's onetime teammate could also rake.
14. Jake Beckley - sneaks back onto the tail end of my ballot.
15. Thurmon Munson - excellent offensive value for a catcher. Not far below Bill Freehan.

16-20: Kiner, Browning, E. Howard, Bonds, Bridges.
21-25: Easter, Luque, Bresnahan, Bob Johnson, Rizzuto.
   42. Ardo Posted: October 11, 2006 at 03:37 PM (#2206863)
If anyone wonders why I elevated Jimmy Wynn from 14th to 4th, I was influenced by the Willie Stargell thread's discussion of Stargell/McCovey/Cepeda/Cash/Wynn/Lee May. I concluded that Wynn was more meritious than either Cash or Cepeda.
   43. Juan V Posted: October 11, 2006 at 03:59 PM (#2206897)
1987 ballot


1) RALPH KINER: Oh, the prime....

2) CUPID CHILDS: If you want more second basemen in the Hall of Merit, here´s a good one.

3) ALEJANDRO OMS: A hidden gem, nice balance of career and prime

4) QUINCY TROUPPE: Joe Torre-light. I like to have at least one catcher on my ballot, and it looks like he (and Bresnahan, who´s creeping close to my ballot) will satisfy this requirement for a while.

5) GAVVY CRAVATH: Yeah, there might be an OF glut in the HOM, but I can´t help but be impressed by him.

6) KEN BOYER: Newest WARPs hurt him a bit. Still similar to Brooks Robinson.

7) BILLY PIERCE: Best pitcher by career since I´ve been here (Mendez´s prime and non-pitching career puts him ahead). And a respectable prime. Last pitcher to be elected before the 70s-early 80s glut arrives? I wouldn´t complain

8) JIMMY WYNN: Reunited with his namesake and close statistical comp...

9) JIMMY RYAN: Better than Van Haltren or Duffy, IMO.

10) BOB JOHNSON: How did he get so far behind Miñoso? He´s on top of a glot of borderline-ish corner outfield candidates in my rankings

11) JIM FREGOSI: A poorer Sewell/Childs. May become my teddy bear.

12) DOBIE MOORE: Good, but his peak is somewhat overrated IMO. How is he that much better than Fregosi?

13) JAKE BECKLEY: He´s been waitlisted ever since I joined, and now he finally makes it into my ballot. What can I say that hasn´t been said already?

14) CANNONBALL DICK REDDING: Incorporating ERA+ hurts him, but I would like to have more detailed info. Tough break...

15) CHARLIE KELLER: Part of the aforementioned COF glut. There´s the career concerns and, I don´t think he had the long, consistent prime to make up for it (like Kiner).

Off ballot, within each group, players are listaed alphabetically.

16-21: Roger Bresnahan, Pete Browning, Chuck Klein, Minnie Miñoso, Johnny Pesky, George Van Halten
22-28: Dave Bancroft, Bobby Bonds, Larry Doyle, Bob Elliott, Edd Roush, George Scales, Pie Traynor
29-38: Sal Bando, Orlando Cepeda, Bus Clarkson, Dizzy Dean, Hugh Duffy, Nellie Fox, Frank Howard, Thurman Munson, Marvin Williams, Artie Wilson
39-44: Dick Bartell, Lou Brock, Norm Cash, Burleigh Grimes, John McGraw, Wilbur Wood

DISCLOSURES:

Minnie Miñoso: I used to have him around 30. Revising his MLEs gave him a good career argument, putting him in the lower reaches of my ballot (as exposed in the prelim). However, noticing that a lot of his MLE years he hangs around an OPS+ of 100, which doesn´t scream "send me to the majors!" for an outfielder. So, I reached a compromise between both positions, with him ending up on the waiting list.

Nellie Fox: I´m not really impressed by his bat. I mean, how is he that much different from, say, Dave Bancroft?

Hugh Duffy: Besides the big season, I find it hard to find much to be excited about. I have the 1890s centerfielders upside down, relative to the consensus.

Newbies

Papa Bonds: I see him as similar to waitlisted Chuck Klein, minus some offense.

Sal Bando: Very similar to Clarkson. He loses in the glove comparision, but gains in certainty.
   44. Patrick W Posted: October 11, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2206968)
--. Willie McCovey</B>, S.F. (N), 1B (’59-’80) (1986)
1. Billy Pierce (1), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – Currently the 100th best player in my system.
2. Ken Boyer (2), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding-dominant infielders further down the ballot. And he was a good defender in his own right.
3. Jimmy Wynn (3), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) (1985) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
4. Dutch Leonard (4), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
5. Dizzy Trout (5), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
6. Norm Cash (6), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
7. Alejandro Oms (7), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
8. George Van Haltren (8), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
9. Ben Taylor (9), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – I am comfortable being Ben’s 2nd-3rd biggest fan.
10. Bob Johnson (10), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) (1985) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
11. Bobby Bonds (n/a), S.F. (N), RF (’68-’81) (1987) – Definitely a player who needs more than one year of consideration, but in the P-Hall he is a one-and-done candidate.
12. Minnie Minoso (11), Chic. (A), LF (’49-’63) (1986) – I was wrong, he’s on the happy side of the in/out line of the P-HOM.
13. Dom DiMaggio (12), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) (1978) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
14. Luis Aparicio (13), Chic. – Balt. (A), SS (’56-’73) (1987) – Luis causes a re-evaluation of the infielders. They are slotted correctly here amongst each other, but not yet among the pitchers and outfielders. All these guys could slot between spots 8-30 at the drop of a hat.
15. Jake Beckley (14), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.

16. Orlando Cepeda (1987) – Considering that my third P-Hall inductee does not appear on my own ballot, I would guess that I have diverged somewhat from the consensus.

Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 27 votes and Chuck Klein with 2 before I explain why he is off-ballot.
Cupid Childs – Rizzuto first.
Nellie Fox – Not the best glove man missing from the ballot.
Dick Redding – I was never convinced on Mendez making it in, so Redding will have to go in without me as well

Four players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   45. Al Peterson Posted: October 11, 2006 at 06:23 PM (#2207059)
1987 ballot. To be honest I’m not super sold on any of these candidates but the rules state put up your best 15. System uses WS, WARP, OPS+, other capitalized letters.

1. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years.

2. Billy Pierce (4). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that. I buy into the leverage argument for him, seemed to come into tight relief spots the way an ace should. Waddell got in first, I’m fine with Pierce following suit since they were close in value.

3. Norm Cash (5). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things.

4. Tommy Leach (6). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

5. Ken Boyer (7). Like a Robinson in quality, didn’t quite play as long. The minor league credit argument is interesting since he was a pitcher part of the time down on the farm.

6. Bobby Bonds (-). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays and some people never got over it. Having him this high shows how we’ve swam into the shallow end of the eligibles.

7. Tony Mullane (8). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

8. Dobie Moore (9). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

9. Roger Bresnahan (10). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

10. Cupid Childs (11). Get in the wayback machine and going to the 19th century for this second sacker. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

11. Jimmy Wynn (12). There’s a peak there to consider – just didn’t put it all in one straight stretch. The Toy Cannon made many a Houston fan happy during the 60s and 70s.

12. Pete Browning (13). Every time I want to dismiss him due to poor fielding, discount the AA, etc. I still can’t help but consider the hitting quality. Man had few peers with the stick in his hand.

13. Bob Johnson (14). Welcome back Indian Bob to the party.

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

14. Bucky Walters (15). We’ve got a case of the peaks with this man. Another multidimensional pitcher in the mold of a Wes Ferrell, just not as good.

15. Jimmy Ryan (16). As they say in the Holy Grail “I’m not dead yet!”. Oh wait, he’s been dead for decades now. Anywho, a 19th century bopper.

16-20: Oms, Minoso, Mays, Poles, Bancroft
21-25: Byrd, C. Jones, Duffy, Easter, Welch
26-30: Willis, Kiner, Shocker, Evers, Schang
31-35: Keller, Roush, Elliott, Grimes, Rizzuto
36-40: Ben Taylor, Joss, Munson, Luque, Beckley
41-45: Bridges, Trouppe, Brock, Bartell, Cicotte
46-50: Trout, F Jones, Stephens, Lombardi, Dean

Top 10 Returnees: Beckley(#40), Minoso(#17), Kiner(#27), Fox (#way up there). Minoso gets tied to Bob Johnson to me, see Indian Bob slightly better. Both are credible candidates. Kiner gets killed by his fielding prowess (or lack thereof) and just needing another strong year or so. Beckley – never has so much been written about one player. Played forever, wasn’t elite but not Candy LaChance as some folks seem to envision. Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”.

New guys: Bonds gets up there. Bando does not – I’d take both Boyer and Elliott before him but I lean defense a bit more on 3B than others. Largely forgotten but a fine player.
   46. Rick A. Posted: October 12, 2006 at 12:44 AM (#2207607)
PHOM
Three HOM OFers with long careers enter my PHOM this year.
Goose Goslin
Roberto Clemente
Billy Williams

1987 Ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
5. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
6. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
7. Hugh Duffy – Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
8. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
9. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
10. Edd Roush –Elected PHOM in 1975.
11. Ralph Kiner – Incredible peak. Elected PHOM in 1971.
12. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
13. Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973.
14. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
15. Elston Howard –Elected PHOM in 1985

Required Disclosures
Wynn and Minoso Just miss my ballot. Both are PHOMers.
Boyer Ranked in the high 20s. Best 3rd baseman not on my ballot.
Nellie Fox Ranked higher than Boyer. May eventually make my PHOM.
Billy Pierce Moves up slightly, but still not near my ballot. I like Newcombe better.

New Candidates
Sal Bando is close to Boyer. Too close to call between Boyer, Elloitt and Bando.
Bobby Bonds Not as good as Bando.
Mike Marshall Still trying to get a handle on him, as well as Hiller.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Wynn,Keller,Bresnahan,Minoso,Cravath
21-25 Newcombe,Monroe,Mays,Fox,Easter
26-30 Scales,Johnson,Boyer,Elliott,Bando
31-35 FHoward,WCooper,Trouppe,MWilliams,AWilson
36-40 Doyle,FJones,Clarkson,McGraw,Munson
41-45 Leach,HWilson,Rizzuto,Traynor,Stephens
46-50 Matlock,Pierce,Cepeda,Poles,HSmith
   47. Rob_Wood Posted: October 12, 2006 at 12:50 AM (#2207624)
1987 ballot from this highly career voter:

1. Jake Beckley - luv the career
2. Cupid Childs - dominating second baseman during the 1890s
3. George Van Haltren - another deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
4. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
5. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
6. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
7. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
8. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop
9. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
10. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
11. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
13. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
14. Luis Aparicio - my career value perspective shows here
15. Minnie Minoso - very good combo of peak and career
-----
16-20. Traynor, Klein, Pierce, Keller, Charley Jones

Not voting for Redding (around 50th). Only other newbie worth a
mention is Sal Bando (around 25th).
   48. yest Posted: October 12, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#2208470)
If my math is correct, that's 35 HOM-ers ranking below everyone on yest's ballot -- including McInnis. I suppose the HOM is up to 170 now.
a lot of my disagreements stem from non interpiting the stats issues(negroe leauges, pre na, and WWII )
1. Jim Bunning
2. Bob Caruthers (may make my phom in the next few years)
3. Stan Coveleski (may make my phom in the next few years)
4. Don Drysdale (may make my phom in the next few years)
5. Red Faber
6. Wes Ferrell
7. Willie Foster
8. Ted Lyons
9. José Méndez
10. Eppa Rixey
11. Red Ruffing (may make my phom in the next few years)
12. Charlie Bennett
13. Louis Santop
14. Dick Allen (would have made my phom before calculating his extra credit)
15. Joe Start (I never was to big on the pre NA guys)
16. Bobby Doerr (WWII questions)(may make my phom in the next few years)
17. Joe Gordon (WWII questions)
18. Frank Grant
19. Hardy Richardson
20. Jackie Robinson (may make my phom in the next few years)(I have alot of trouble with the initergration era)
21. John Beckwith
22. Heinie Groh (may make my phom in the next few years)
23. Ezra Sutton
24. Lou Boudreau (WWII questions)
25. Hughie Jennings (may make my phom in the next few years)
26. Home Run Johnson
27. Dickey Pearce (I never was to big on the pre NA guys)
28. Pee Wee Reese (WWII questions)
29. Bobby Wallace
30. Jimmy Sheckard
31. Willard Brown (I have alot of trouble with the initergration era)
32. Larry Doby (I have alot of trouble with the initergration era)
33. Monte Irvin (I have alot of trouble with the initergration era)
34. Cristóbal Torriente
35. Elmer Flick
   49. Chris Fluit Posted: October 12, 2006 at 07:14 PM (#2208529)
34. jingoist Posted: October 10, 2006 at 11:18 PM (#2206506)
Stuffy McInnis?
That's gotta be old Stuffy's first ever vote.

What made old McInnis Stuffy?
For that matter, who can tell me what made Stirnweiss Snuffy?

If Stuffy and Snuffy played on the same team could they have had a double play called: Snuffy to Stuffy to Snuffy or; a Stuffy to Snuffy to Stuffy?

That's what modern-day baseball is missing; guys nicknamed Stuffy or Snuffy.
Snuffy Tejeda or Stuffy Pujols; whadaya think?


Stubby Clapp played for Canada in the World Baseball Classic.
   50. sunnyday2 Posted: October 12, 2006 at 08:03 PM (#2208590)
>16. Bobby Doerr (WWII questions)(may make my phom in the next few years)
17. Joe Gordon (WWII questions)
28. Pee Wee Reese (WWII questions)

What questions are those?

>20. Jackie Robinson (may make my phom in the next few years)(I have alot of trouble with the initergration era)
>31. Willard Brown (I have alot of trouble with the initergration era)
>32. Larry Doby (I have alot of trouble with the initergration era)
>33. Monte Irvin (I have alot of trouble with the initergration era)

I'm sorry, you have alot of trouble with what era?

>9. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
>13. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
>14. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
>35. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (makes my pHoM this year)

I suppose it would be considered not PC to say that you appear to have a problem not so much with the era as with, ah, something that, er, happened during that, um, era.
   51. Mike Webber Posted: October 12, 2006 at 08:03 PM (#2208591)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) EDD ROUSH –Why I think Edd is better than Wynn. More career win shares, with out any schedule adjustment. Played his whole career in center field, while Wynn spent 1/3 of his career elsewhere while Ron Davis and Roland Office played center. Significant lead in both black and gray ink – both played in generally poor hitters parks.

Do you consider Edd’s two seasons where he missed significant time while battling for a fair contract similar to the problems Charley Jones faced? If not why? This isn’t something anyone really goes through anymore in MLB, you occasionally see it in the NFL though.
2) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
3) JIMMY WYNN – Why I think Jimmy Wynn is better than Edd. PRO+ is slightly higher. Played in a tougher environment, especially when you add in the Federal League. While both played in poor hitters parks, Wynn’s style was more adversely affected by the Astrodome than Redland/Crosley Field hurt singles hitting Roush.
4) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
5) MINNIE MINOSO – Paired with Kiner, but just behind him.
6) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
7) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era.
8) SAL BANDO - Shiny new toy? I have had Boyer fairly high on my ballot and I think Bando may be better. I’ve lowered Boyer and slotted Bando ahead of him. Its possible they should both be lower.
9) KEN BOYER
10) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
11) ALE OMS Re-read his ballot, and his arguments are very persuasive. Right here is where I think the in/out line is.
12) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
13) BULEIGH GRIMES I have problems with pitchers, who seem to be at the top of my ballot or off the ballot. I like Grimes career stats.
14) LOU BROCK – As a career voter I’ll put him here, but am not 100% comfortable with it.
15) CARL MAYS Added the number 2 pitcher in my system to the bottom of the ballot. Durability, big seasons are why my system puts him ahead of Pierce, but I am not sure if that is an era error in my calculations.

Disclosures – Pierce, Redding - Mays, Pierce and Grimes are my top pitchers. Redding would be in the top 50.

Cupid Childs – behind Doyle and Lazzeri in my rankings.

Newbies – Bonds – near of my ballot, in the top 40. I was somewhat surprised. Another player where you have to weigh his uniqueness – there are a slew of RF that are about the same. What differentiates him Colavito? Reggie Smith? Jose Canseco? Rusty Staub? Bobby Murcer? Dewey? All those guys can’t go in…can they?
   52. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 12, 2006 at 09:27 PM (#2208675)
Do you consider Edd’s two seasons where he missed significant time while battling for a fair contract similar to the problems Charley Jones faced? If not why? This isn’t something anyone really goes through anymore in MLB, you occasionally see it in the NFL though.

A fabulously interesting question. A lot of this question may have been subsumed by a somewhat offhanded remark that appeared in the BJNHBA (i think) in which Bill says that Edd didn't like spring training or some such notion of mild malingering. Perhaps he's quoting someone at that moment. Anyway, the substance of those comments has perhaps colored our view of that situation, but the question still stands. Isn't it realistically the same thing as Charley Jones? Or Tony Mullane? Or Home Run Baker? I think it likely is.

OK, so the question for Mike is, what years did he hold out, and for how many regular season games did the holdout last? That's the jubber meets the road. Put a number to it for each year, and let's see how many Shares that potentially cost him.
   53. DavidFoss Posted: October 12, 2006 at 09:35 PM (#2208684)
I suppose it would be considered not PC to say that you appear to have a problem not so much with the era as with, ah, something that, er, happened during that, um, era.

Well, the WWII guys show that he has trouble mixing MLE credits with MLB credits. It certainly is a tricky thing to do, but not doing it leads to things like Kuenn over Irvin.

Anyhow, although I could go on with disagreements, thanks for posting you pHOM and HOM-non-PHOM, yest. It takes a lot of guts for a strongly non-consensus guy to put up such thorough lists like that, especially when its not required.
   54. rawagman Posted: October 12, 2006 at 09:45 PM (#2208697)
1) Re Edd Roush and holding out. I see that era as remarkably inconsiderate of player's rights (what's that?) and would never fault a player of going for the money, as long as playing baseball was ultimately the goal, and I argued as much for Rube Waddell last year. I also support Roush, Cravath and others who are otherwise hurt by labor issues but still played baseball.
2) yest and your issues with integration era and pre n/a era and WWII era players - is that not unconstitutional? Are we not supposed to consider baseball without the taint (tint) of racism, judging all men as potential equals by removing the constraints an era wide restriction may have placed on them? By all means, go for high BA and good gloves, but do reconsider your blatant bias towards players of certain eras. It's almost shameful.
   55. yest Posted: October 12, 2006 at 09:56 PM (#2208710)
</i>
16. Bobby Doerr (WWII questions)(may make my phom in the next few years)
17. Joe Gordon (WWII questions)
28. Pee Wee Reese (WWII questions)What questions are those?</i>
how much credit for missing time and how much of a leauge quality discount to use

I suppose it would be considered not PC to say that you appear to have a problem not so much with the era as with, ah, something that, er, happened during that, um, era.
I have a lot of trouble adding Negroe leauge and mlb stats togeather espeashily when you throw in some minor league credit
   56. yest Posted: October 12, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#2208721)
2) yest and your issues with integration era and pre n/a era and WWII era players - is that not unconstitutional? Are we not supposed to consider baseball without the taint (tint) of racism, judging all men as potential equals by removing the constraints an era wide restriction may have placed on them? By all means, go for high BA and good gloves, but do reconsider your blatant bias towards players of certain eras. It's almost shameful.

It's not that I don't want eitheir era under repesented in my pHoM it's rather that for WWII players I don't think it's fair to give them all star seasons just because they had them a few years earlier, due to many players who could have had all star or mvp seasons who don't get credit for exampe if Pesky had 3 simaler seasons to the ones he had before and after the war he would be in my pHoM but would it be fair to someone else who didn't have 3 consecutive all star seasons in beetween 2 all star seasons but played to get less credit then someone who went to war just because they could have had 3 all star qaulity seasons
   57. rawagman Posted: October 12, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2208725)
yest - I don't think anyone here doesn't have trouble with these calculations - but we have to do them.
MLE's are a helpful start. Figure out a way to measure how many grains of salt you want to take with them and add the totals. If you don't add them, you are basically saying that they are not worth adding.
Do you believe that Negro League baseball was worthless?
Do you beleive that the men who played in the majors during WWII were not playing in the majors?
Was the NA not its own form of major league baseball?
Did the men who lost portions of their career to service in WWI, WWII, Korea and any other conflict deserve that loss, or do they earn the benefit of our consideration that they would have been playing baseball at a certain level had they not been called to a higher cause?

If you answer yes to any of these questions, then you must put in the effort it would take to make a calculation for these periods.
   58. sunnyday2 Posted: October 12, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2208726)
It would surely be fair to honor Johnny Pesky and throw Stuffy McInnis out....
   59. rawagman Posted: October 12, 2006 at 10:17 PM (#2208729)
yest - even if you decide to give 70% credit, you are giving credit. By not making that tough decision, you give nothing.
   60. yest Posted: October 12, 2006 at 10:31 PM (#2208742)
I am giving credit just a 50% credit (for WWII)
   61. EricC Posted: October 13, 2006 at 12:10 AM (#2208811)
1987 ballot.

I use win shares rates for position players and ERA+ for pitchers as a basis for seasonal rankings, and rate careers on a kind of sliding scale where a higher peak requires a shorter duration of playing time to achieve the same rating.

I balance across position by using comparisons with contemporaries at the same position as part of the rating, have calculated and incorporate league factors, and use what some would consider timelining to balance across eras. I've carefully reevaluated all of the components of my system, as this is a important backlog year.

Players are labeled according to whether their merit is more of a peak merit, more of a career merit, or balanced.

1. Wally Schang (balanced) Generally all-star level of play at C 1913-1920; one of better catchers for most of long career afterwards; career leader in WS among C upon retirement. #1 on ballot in this weak year, but not among top 120 players of all time as I see them.

2. Charlie Keller (peak) Consistent all-star to MVP level of play at corner OF 1939-1947. I don't see Kiner's peak as sustained as this. Believe that his peak would have been maintained during WWII and thus give war credit.

3. Nellie Fox (career) Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s middle IF, makes me suspect that he has a good chance of eventual election.

4. Orlando Cepeda (balanced) Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats". I feel that Cepeda, in particular, deserves a careful look, especially when 60s NL strength is taken into account.

5. Orestes Minoso (balanced) Lots of playing time and among better LF most years 1951-1960, and occasionally all-star level. Not an extereme career, but a little credit for ML time missed makes him look closer to the elected HoM corner OF than to the also-rans.

6. Norm Cash (balanced) Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

7. Mickey Vernon (career) Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre- expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

8. Elston Howard (peak) Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

9. Billy Pierce (career) Staff-ace quality P with respectable workload in the early 50s; racked up the IP in the rest of his career. Nice to see some respect for borderline pitching candidates from this era.

10. Jimmy Wynn (peak) Multiple years of all-star quality CF play. Sabermetric poster child- 0.250 BA, but played a defensive position, had a 0.400ish secondary average, and played in a pitcher's era.

11. Sol White (career) Star middle-infielder, mainly 2B, with long career late 1880s to mid 1900s. Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to ever know if this rating is accurate.

12. Roger Bresnahan (peak) Mutiple years of all-star level C play and wasn't too shabby in the CF either.

13. Frank Howard (peak) All-star level (or close to it) corner outfielder most years 1962-1969.

14. Emil "Dutch" Leonard (career) Compiled innings, without much distinction, for years, then took proton energy pills at age 38, pitching like an ace starter 1947-1948, and like an ace reliever 1951-1952. (DL for MN, I was the one who dropped Leonard last year after voting for him in previous years.)

15. Al Rosen (peak) Like with E. Howard, a huge peak. The 3B 1950-1954 & legitimate 1953 MVP. Little outside those 5 years, but very few, if any, non-HoFers have ever earned 150 WS over a 5 year stretch.


Among the newbies, Bo. Bonds comes closest to making my ballot, in the 20s. Bando is Hall of the Very Good.

Top 10 returnees Kiner, Boyer, Childs, and Redding were all very good players who have been on my ballot or close to it in the past. Redding comes closest, in the 20s.
   62. OCF Posted: October 13, 2006 at 01:12 AM (#2208971)
Wow! I thought I was one of Mickey Vernon's better friends - but I never quite got around to putting him ahead of Beckley.
   63. Howie Menckel Posted: October 13, 2006 at 03:39 AM (#2209364)
1987 ballot, our (and my) 90th ballot.

Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
I find that OF fielding is a little overrated among the voters.
I must be a 'small hall' guy, because unlike a lot of other voters I'd rather induct only 3-5 of these guys than 15 or 20.
Bobby Bonds was interesting, but no better than top 50-60. We've had a lot of those careers, and by now they just don't cut it. I like Eliott and Boyer far better than Bando at this point.

I had last year's electees Willie McCovey 1st and Rube Waddell 6th.

1. RALPH KINER - His competitiveness with Kaline over his top 9 years and even with Killebrew for a long stretch as well makes him an easy No. 1 choice. Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
2. BILLY PIERCE - Climbs back to "elect-me" status. Pierce has few rivals in post-WW II pitching. Bob Gibson-lite, if you ask me. Pierce's leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still hope he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out. Keep him on your radar.
3. CUPID CHILDS - This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era, and this year he climbs for the first time in a while to 'elect-me' status. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support. Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better.

4. NELLIE FOX - Continues an inexorable climb up my ballot. Clearly the best of an era, clearly underrated, and looking more and more unique to me. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends.
5. JAKE BECKLEY - I've noted on the Brock thread how thoroughly Beckley crushes Lou. WS is spectacularly wrong on that count, so much so that it should cause those favoring the metric to rethink it a bit, imo.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (it was a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. Still, I am considering recent evidence that Beckley's was not the peak of the 1B fielding generation.
6. BOB JOHNSON - Leapfrogs Minoso and several others this season - I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
7. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite who gets a boost this year as I reexamine which players I seriously can imagine as HOMers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
8. BOB ELLIOTT - If you haven't examined him in a while, or ever, get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
9. MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but I'm disappointed to see that such negligible Negro Leagues credit is due. I thought he was a better player there than we discovered. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
10 KEN BOYER - Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys. I can't quite get him over Elliott yet, but I am mulling.
11. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
12. GAVY CRAVATH - I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. With proper credits, better than Keller as well.
13. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto the ballot. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
14. THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
15. MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell, but that's no longer a concern. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there. Some people may wish we had 20 slots; I find it a reach to find a No. 15 selection.


10 TOP RETURNEES NOT VOTING FOR
DOBIE MOORE - Really seems to be palatable only for a full-peak guy. Even at SS, I don't see how he can compete with a guy like Keller, for example, who is only in the teens/20s for me right now.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but if the ballot ever thins it's inevitable he may reappear.
CHARLEY JONES - Battling to finally make his way onto my ballot after 80 years of neglect.
CHARLIE KELLER - Poor man's Ralph Kiner; ironically a Kiner election might propel him onto my ballot.
ELSTON HOWARD - I am troubled by the combo of shortened career plus durability issues, but willing to revisit it down the stretch.
FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135.
   64. DanG Posted: October 13, 2006 at 07:26 AM (#2209434)
My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 was elected. Bonds and Bando lead off in 1987, when we elect three. The backlog bonanza ends in 1988 as Stargell, Tiant and R. Smith grab the spotlight. One of the best classes ever enters in 1989 with Bench, Yaz, Perry, Jenkins, Kaat, Tenace and Campaneris. In 1990 we’ll elect Morgan and Palmer, while Singleton and Otis challenge the backlog.

1) George Van Haltren (2,1,3) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1972 to 1978, he went from the #1 unelected player to #15. Inched back into the top 20 again, his position may be stabilizing; we’ve now elected seven players who were behind him in 1970. Why? Now in his 79th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

2) Edd Roush (3,2,5) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. Support slipped a bit last election, two backloggers pulled back ahead. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

3) Minnie Minoso (5,4,6) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

4) Tommy Leach (4,3,4) – Held his ground again, but Brock slipped past him. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

5) Jake Beckley (6,6,9) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

6) Burleigh Grimes (7,8,11) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


7) Charlie Keller (9,10,13) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with highest OPS, 1938-51, minimum 4500 PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize
5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine
12-.834 V. Stephens
13-.834 R. York
14-.832 B. Nicholson
15-.828 A. Galan
16-.827 B. Doerr
17-.823 B. Elliott
18-.822 J. Gordon

8) Roger Bresnahan (8,7,8) – A couple more voters now (11) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

9) Cupid Childs (11,12,14) – I’ve voted for him 12 times previously: we’re at the point where he’ll never fall off again, as we’ll keep mining the backlog. Edges Doyle on league strength and era dominance. Players with OBP over .410, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1—.455 B. Hamilton
2—.433 T. Cobb
3—.431 T. Speaker
4—.423 D. Brouthers
5—.421 E. Collins
6—.416 C. Childs
7—.415 J. Burkett
8—.413 R. Thomas
9—.411 E. Delahanty

10) Jimmy Ryan (10,9,10) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 14 voters who had GVH in their top twelve last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

11) Ralph Kiner (13,13,15) –I’m not a big fan of short careers or narrow skill sets. But, I’ve never seen him on any “questionable hall of famers” survey. Probably deserves a year of war credit. NBJHBA rates him ~#171. Like Keller, a long, high prime. Moving up.

12) Wally Schang (12,11,12) – My other Lost Cause, along with Ryan. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

13) Billy Pierce (14,14,--) – Fourth time on ballot. Only Spahn, Roberts and Lemon were completing a higher percentage of their starts; Pierce was also relieving about five times a year in his prime. It adds a lot of leverage to his pitching, as has been discussed.

14) Ken Boyer (15,15,--) – New evidence that he deserves a year or so for war credit gets him on the ballot. His adjusted WS go to ~305.

15) Rabbit Maranville (--,--,--) – First time on ballot. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339 including 124 in his top five seasons.

Top tenners off ballot:

Weak AL keeps Fox off the ballot, for now.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.

Wynn is a bit short on career, but definitely on my radar.
   65. rico vanian Posted: October 13, 2006 at 04:19 PM (#2209725)
LET'S GO METS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1)Ralph Kiner – 7 home run titles in a row. I see a lot of attention to players who had a few good years and how deserving they are to be HOM’ers, but jeez, this guy led the league in Home Runs 7 straight years! Mega peak.

2) Nellie Fox –
2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
3) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
4) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
5) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
6) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
7) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
8) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
9) Phil Rizzuto – - SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
10) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
11) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.
12) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
13) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
14) Ken Boyer - MVP. 7 all star games.
almost doesn't count
15) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.


16) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
17) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
18) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
19) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
20) Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
21) Orlando Cepeda-
22) Billy Pierce - Very good, never great.
23) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
24) Cupid Childs – Short career, not much black or grey ink.
25) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
26) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
27) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons...


Bobby Bonds is in the 40’s, Sal Bando is in the 60’s, no one else is close.
   66. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 13, 2006 at 04:51 PM (#2209773)
Easy to vote when #1 and #2 from last ballot are elected...

1) C. Keller-A monster hitter. The notion that he shouldn't receive war credit because he might have injured his back soon is a little cockeyed, as military service isn't exactly like sipping margaritas on the beach at Cabo. Wish we knew how much his home park helped him, but he falls just out of the range of Retrosheet.

2) D. Dean-Best pitcher alive for 3 years. Bad "peripherals", but monster run prevention + monster durability is a rare and valuble thing.

3) R. Kiner-Awesome hitting peak, best slugger of his generation, defense not Luzinski-bad. Downgraded below Keller by the influence of the opinion of his peers, who thought him a flawed player...I know that Branch Rickey had ulterior motives is bashing Kiner, but some of the stuff he said was pretty brutal. Probably a better hitter than Keller in neutral park, so this weighs defense and "intangibles".

4) G. Cravath-Massive minor league credit. I can't see the argument against his induction; say, hypothetically, that Hideki Matsui had come over from Japan at age 31 and hit, not as well as he already hit (All-Star), but even better, like Pujolsian numbers. That's Cravath. How is he not an HOMer?


5)C. Childs-Best 2B baseman of his generation, well thought of by his peers, mysteriously forgotten post 1900. Played in a difficult league and dominated it. I don't even think he's a short career candidate given his position and time.

6) A. Joss-New to my ballot, reevaluated when I was researching Waddell v. Pierce. I always dinged him because of his ridiculous BIPA, but then I looked at the DEF and DP for the Indians' 1902-1909 teams, and with the exception of 1906 they were not terrific defensively; top half of the league, maybe, but not number 1. That suggests that Joss ability to prevent hits was real. Joss doesn't have the durability I like (and chewed through alot of pitches for a low-K guy). That keeps him below Waddell.

7) A. Rosen-Peak needs no commentary. I understand why a career guy cant vote for him, but he had arguably the best 3B season of all-time, and it was no fluke.


8) Billy Pierce-Looks much better compared to pitchers of his generation than compared to pitchers of all-time. Sometimes that can be explained by simply a dry run of pitchers (eg, 1980's), and I worried about that w/r/t Pierce b/c of the war. But now looking at 50's pitchers, I just think it was a function of weird usage of that time. I wish someone would quantify the value of his leverage; its not enough to say he was the most leveraged pitcher of his time, you have to say that the leverage was worth XXX wins to his team.


9)E. Roush-I see him as better than Duffy, and also better than the CF's from the overrrepresented 1930's. He'd have to be really mediocre defensively not to be a 10 win player in his best seasons; I think he was better than that. I see him as similar to, but better than, Bernie Williams.

10)C. Mays- Replaces Walters on my ballot, essentially. Mays looks like a career candidate because he hung around for a while post-prime, but he's only great from ~1917-1921. But what a dandy pitcher he was for that time; durable, very effective in run surpression, and, from the looks of it, threw in some highly leveraged relief work. Killed a man.

11) H. Duffy- Grudingly.

12) E. Howard- So obviously a special case. Blocked, moved, token-ed by the Yankees. Dominant at his position when he finally got a chance to play, though peak is diluted by 1961 expansion. Not very often we have candidates who were the best at a key position both defensively and offensively; such candidates deserve special consideration.


13) T. Munson- He's really much better than he appears because his peak comes in pre-renovation Yankee Stadium. I'm not inclined to give out intangible points, but if any position gets 'em, its catcher, and if any catcher gets 'em, its Munson. Munson may have been a 10-win player in his best 2 seasons in a neutral context, which is pretty awesome.

14)K. Boyer- A vote for very very good defense combined with above average hitting. Not as much of a hitting peak as I'd like to see, but it's hard to know how good his defense peak was.

15)J. Wynn- A terrible park for his style of hitting...lost more than a simple park factor adjustment can account for. Good enough in the field. Has a very good consecutive peak of HoM caliber seasons.

Not on Ballot:

D. Redding: Don't trust the MLE's, don't trust the demographics argument...and without that, there's not much left. Dean and Joss are compelling, and don't require hand-waving to justify their election.

N. Fox- Without the "positional balance" argument, he's got no case, and "positional balance" is a red herring.

M. Minoso-Not only do I not have him on the ballot, he's not even close. Off the top of my head, I'd rather vote for the following outfielders:

Kiner, Keller, Cravath, Roush, Duffy, Wynn, Klein, Berger, Howard, Wilson, Browning
   67. Delorians Posted: October 13, 2006 at 05:46 PM (#2209837)
From rawagaman post 57:

"yest - I don't think anyone here doesn't have trouble with these calculations - but we have to do them.
MLE's are a helpful start. Figure out a way to measure how many grains of salt you want to take with them and add the totals. If you don't add them, you are basically saying that they are not worth adding.
Do you believe that Negro League baseball was worthless?
Do you beleive that the men who played in the majors during WWII were not playing in the majors?
Was the NA not its own form of major league baseball?
Did the men who lost portions of their career to service in WWI, WWII, Korea and any other conflict deserve that loss, or do they earn the benefit of our consideration that they would have been playing baseball at a certain level had they not been called to a higher cause?

If you answer yes to any of these questions, then you must put in the effort it would take to make a calculation for these periods."

me:

Maybe if yest stopped scrutinizing the details of every HOM plaque, he'd have time to put in the effort for these calculations.
   68. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 13, 2006 at 06:24 PM (#2209882)
me:

Maybe if yest stopped scrutinizing the details of every HOM plaque, he'd have time to put in the effort for these calculations.


As the guy whose plaques are being scrutinized, I'm glad that he and others here take the time to go over them. Since I'm the only one handling this at the present time and have to balance HoM activities with my work, I appreciate the help when I get it.

Not that I don't wish yest would give the WWII and NeL players more credit than he has given them so far, Delorians.

BTW guys, I'll be starting work at my first real estate firm within the next few weeks. That means that I may not be as punctual with the elections on Monday night as I have been. If the electorate has a problem with this, we may need to find an alternate who can pinch hit for me if I can't make it on time or if Joe is busy. I would still do the heavy lifting with the threads, though; I would just need someone to post the threads that I have completed. If it's a close election, the alternate would have to do a little more work with the election results thread.
   69. yest Posted: October 13, 2006 at 06:53 PM (#2209911)
Maybe if yest stopped scrutinizing the details of every HOM plaque, he'd have time to put in the effort for these calculations.

actualy I did those sctruinzations last year
   70. sunnyday2 Posted: October 13, 2006 at 06:57 PM (#2209916)
I disagree very much with yest on how to id a HoMer...but I have to say he sure takes criticism well.
   71. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 13, 2006 at 07:09 PM (#2209933)
I disagree very much with yest on how to id a HoMer...but I have to say he sure takes criticism well.

I agree, Marc. He has the thickest skin of any of us, which is a plus in my book.
   72. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 13, 2006 at 07:58 PM (#2209991)
Not only that, but I think he's to be commended for scrutinizing the plaques closely. Look, if the HOM is an institution, and if it wants to be respected as one, it needs to do many things well---not just elections. One of those things is accurately representing the accomplishments of the elected players. If we're not doing that, how can a third-party observer consider our thought processes valid? While it may seem silly, it'snot difficult to see something likethis occuring:

These guys don't even have the right number of batting titles for Joe Placehitter! Are they sloppy or underinformed? Should I trust the results?

And remember, even though we're saving all these threads, within a year or so, most of those threads will quiet down and maybe go dormant for very long stretches. The only one I expect to be frequented in the long, cold times between yearly elections is the plaque room, because it's the first place the world will go to see what work we've done.

yest, despite his highly eccentric ballots and his sometime cryptic responses to questions, has consistently made the HOM better through his plaque work, and in this way makes an effective and highly public contribution to our proceedings.
   73. TomH Posted: October 13, 2006 at 08:10 PM (#2210005)
agree. Go yest, even though I disagree with your ballot placements. You're doin the HoM a great favor.
------------

1987 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP or OPS+ adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Billy Pierce (2) [4]
Pierce the darkness, elect Billy!
2- Jake Beckley (3) [11]
Pick me! Pick me!
3- Ken Boyer (5) [6]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader. Teensy minor league credit.
4- John McGraw (4) [38]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen. The HoM is short of 1890s infielders.
5- Cupid Childs (6) [7]
Consistently the best at his position, which not many on this ballot can say.
6- Bucky Walters (7) [14]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
7- George Van Haltren (8) [20]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
8- Bob Johnson (9) [22]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
9- Jimmy Wynn (15) [10]
Toy Cannonball! I was a bit conservative on his initial ballot; I feel more comfy putting him here now.
10- Minnie Minoso (10) [5]
Very similar to Bob Johnson.
11- Frank Chance (11) [61]
A great player on great teams.
12- Ralph Kiner (12) [3]
Power prime!
13- Burleigh Grimes (off) [25]
First time on my ballot.
14- Charlie Keller (13) [16]
King Kong!
15- Dominic DiMaggio (off) [no luv]
.300 hitter, good eye, some pop, played well until age 35. Could have been a hero in game 7 of the ’46 Series; he drove in all 3 of the Sox runs, but Slaughter’s mad dash erased Dom’s play. And one of the 5 best defensive outfielders EVER.

Sal Bando juuuust missed. Right now I slot him a bit above Elliot, both in my top 25.
Bobby Bonds, ditto; tough to separate him from Keller and Oms.

Dick Redding, still just off the bottom. Dobie Moore is in the top 30; which, considering I’m more of a career voter, is a high complement. Nellie Fox is around 35; he isn’t any different than Aparicio, Rizzuto, Maranville, or Bancroft. I’d rather take Bill Monroe than any of them.

Two catchers close by: Bresnahan and Munson
   74. jingoist Posted: October 13, 2006 at 11:02 PM (#2210413)
I gotta hand it to you guys; this is probably the kindest, most appreciative group of folks posting regularly on the internet.
Nobody gets their pantyhose in a wad over any comment; nobody takes umbrage when their placement of this or that player is challanged.
Good guys all; it's a pleasure to peek in and watch the inner workings of your collective minds.
Keep up the good work.

ps, I sure hope Edd Roush and Billy Pierce make it in.
I've become convinced that old GVH, Jimmy Ryan and Duffy are not all going to get in. Maybe none of them.
   75. rawagman Posted: October 13, 2006 at 11:25 PM (#2210453)
I've become convinced that old GVH, Jimmy Ryan and Duffy are not all going to get in. Maybe none of them.


You wait, jingoist - I'll find a way to convince everyone that Hugh Duffy is worthwhile.
   76. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 14, 2006 at 03:05 AM (#2210918)
I gotta hand it to you guys; this is probably the kindest, most appreciative group of folks posting regularly on the internet....
Good guys all; it's a pleasure to peek in and watch the inner workings of your collective minds.


That's one of the best compliments our group can receive. Thanks jingoist.
   77. Howie Menckel Posted: October 14, 2006 at 03:44 AM (#2211006)
Yeah, I don't participate in the yest comments, and I don't agree with a lot of his ballots, but he's contributing to the project for sure.
I'd love to hear how it is that he doesn't get angry at any of the knocks, though...
   78. jimd Posted: October 14, 2006 at 03:49 AM (#2211032)
Ballot for 1987 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) B. WALTERS -- He moved up considerably in my pitcher reevaluation. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

2) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

3) J. WYNN -- Scored much higher than I thought he would; excellent prime. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

5) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

6) B. BONDS -- Scored much higher than I thought he would. Very nice prime; marginal on career and peak. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

7) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

8) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

9) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he was ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

10) P. TRAYNOR -- Reassessing IF in general also. Traynor and Bancroft were major beneficiaries. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

11) B. PIERCE -- HOM needs pitchers. Prime 1950-58. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1955; WS adds 1952, 1953, 1958. Other star seasons include 1951. HM in 1950, 1956, 1957.

12) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

13) D. BANCROFT -- See Traynor. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

14) T. MUNSON -- Reassessing catchers in general. Close to Howard and Freehan. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

15) D. MOORE -- Back on the ballot again.

16) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

17) D. TROUT -- Prime 1942-48. Best player in baseball, 1944. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1944 and 1946; WARP adds 1943. HM in 1942, 1945, and 1948.

18) R. SCHALK -- Excellent defensive catcher; best in MLB 5 times by both WARP and WS. Prime 1913-22. 1st team MLB All-Star (C) 1917; WARP adds 1916. Other star seasons include 1913, 1914, 1919, 1920, and 1922.

19) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

20) R. BRESNAHAN -- I appear to have a catcher's glut. Prime 1903-08. First team MLB All-Star (C) 1906 and 1908; WS adds 1905. Other star seasons include 1907, 1911, plus 1903 in CF. HM in 1904 in CF.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Ralph Kiner, Wilbur Wood,
23-24) Norm Cash, Nellie Fox,
25-26) Dick Redding, Dizzy Dean,
27-28) Jake Beckley, Jim McCormick,
29-30) Hugh Duffy, Edd Roush,
31-32) Quincy Trouppe, George VanHaltren

Bando comes in around 50. He has some negatives involving mediocre defense and competition quality problems. The AL was the weaker league, and the AL West was the notably inferior division during Bando's prime (In 1969 and 1970 the AL is significantly imbalanced; 1973 somewhat less so. Those are two of his 3 best seasons.) His WS are inflated by 5-10% in those seasons (compared to playing a balanced AL schedule; AL discount relative to NL would be applied after that.)
   79. Brent Posted: October 14, 2006 at 04:08 AM (#2211079)
1987 Ballot:

1. Orestes Miñoso – Ranks in the middle of HoM’s fourth quartile. The others on this ballot are all near the in/out line. See the Minoso thread. (PHoM 1970)

2. Bobby Bonds – Similar mix of skills to Miñoso—hit for power, drew walks, speed, good fielder, throwing arm. Miñoso had a higher batting average, and Bonds hit more home runs. (PHoM 1987)

3. Phil Rizzuto – Great defense, hit well for a shortstop, ages 25-27 in military service. (PHoM 1967)

4. Hugh Duffy – Great defensive outfielder; good hitter; 5 pennants. (PHoM 1931)

5. Jimmy Wynn – Spending most of his career outside the spotlight, it’s easy to forget how good he was. (PHoM 1985)

6. Sal Bando – Edges Boyer with hitting. (PHoM 1987)

7. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

8. Alejandro Oms – compares well to any of the eligible center field candidates. Check out the Oms thread. (PHoM 1967)

9. Ken Boyer – Five Gold Glove awards; MVP for 1964. (PHoM 1975)

10. Nellie Fox – Contributed with both the glove and the bat over a fairly long career. 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. (PHoM 1979)

11. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 121 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

12. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

13. Elston Howard – Best eligible catcher. (PHoM 1977)

14. Dobie Moore – Among the short career, high peak candidates, I think his is the best case. (PHoM 1986)

15. Dick Redding – Playing during a poorly documented era, my rating is based as much on his reputation as on his statistics. (PHoM 1976)

Near misses:

16-20. F Howard, Cravath (PHoM 1976), Brock, Grimes (PHoM 1940), Newcombe
21–25. Keller, Cepeda, Bresnahan, Leach (PHoM 1932), Arlett

Other consensus top 10:

Billy Pierce – I see Newcombe as the next in line among 1950s pitchers.

Ralph Kiner – How can Kiner appear on 34 ballots and Frank Howard on only 5? Howard’s record from 1962-71 essentially matched Kiner’s career, plus he had another 400 games before ’62 or after ’71. They’re close, but I think Howard’s got to be ahead.

Cupid Childs – I’ve ranked him below Fox, who had a similar peak and a longer prime.

Other new arrivals:

Mike Marshall (ranked # 27) is the second best relief pitcher to date.
   80. Brent Posted: October 14, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#2211093)
This is the correct link to my comparison of Kiner and Frank Howard.
   81. OCF Posted: October 14, 2006 at 04:59 AM (#2211129)
With about 20 ballots yet to be cast, we already have 83 different candidates receiving votes. The following players got votes in 1986; I suspect that most of them have supporters among those who haven't voted yet:

Urban Schocker, George Burns, Artie Wilson, Hermann Long, Kiki Cuyler, Dick Bartell.

By the time we drag our way through our last deep-backlog election, we may make it to 100 candidates receiving votes.

Oh, and who will win in 1987? It will be close, very close.
   82. Howie Menckel Posted: October 14, 2006 at 05:52 AM (#2211151)
Kiner and Howard ARE an interesting comparison, but Kiner dominates beyond 3 yrs due to playing-time issues. Howard surely is underrated and I have voted for him, but Kiner just offered more value offensively with no league discounts needed....
   83. Brent Posted: October 14, 2006 at 02:53 PM (#2211238)
Over the ten-year period I compared, Ralph Kiner does have have about a 5 percent advantage in games played per year (155 for Kiner, after converting to a 162-game schedule, versus 147 for Frank Howard). Kiner also has an advantage of 6.2 percent in plate appearances per game, but _most_ of that difference is due to the difference in playing environment. Kiner, playing in leagues and parks with a .347 OBP, should have been expected to have about 5 percent more plate appearances than Howard, playing in a .316 OBP environment, even if they were exactly the same by their teams. It's important in comparing plate appearances to adjust for these differences in environment.

I'm not a big fan of either Howard or Kiner (I have Howard at # 16, Kiner at # 29), but I don't see Kiner's very slight advantages in peak or prime completely offsetting the Howard's extra career.
   84. Brent Posted: October 14, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#2211240)
Sorry, that should have read "even if they were used exactly the same by their teams."
   85. favre Posted: October 14, 2006 at 03:27 PM (#2211260)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Charley Jones
2. Jake Beckley

Jones averaged an OPS+ of 164 between 1876-1880, his age 26-30 years. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2, his time in the AA, or the fact that he was born in North Carolina, which may have prevented him from entering baseball at an earlier age (he debuted at age 26 in 1876). I had basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part.

Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. It’s often been mentioned that Beckley has thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 122. A quick and dirty check reveals that only twenty-five other major league players until 1985 have posted thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 120. I’ll spare you the list, but it’s some pretty rarified air: Crawford, Waner, and Wheat are by far the worst players of that group. I am by no means arguing that Beckley somehow belongs in that inner-circle; I just find it an interesting fact.

3. Dobie Moore
4. Billy Pierce

I’m guessing I’m the only voter who has both Jake and Dobie in elect-me spots. Moore is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see why we put Sewell ahead.

We are very short on pitchers from 1941-55. Pierce is the best pitcher left from the 1950s, averaging 242 IP with an ERA+ of 138 between 1951-58. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams with excellent defenses.

5. Ralph Kiner
6. Jimmy Wynn
7. Orestes Minoso

Kiner won OPS+ titles in ’47, ’49, and ’51—all when there was a guy in the league named Musial, playing in his prime. Wynn did not have a huge peak, but his prime is excellent, posting six seasons with an OPS+ between 140-167, five of those as a CF. He doesn’t have much outside his prime, but I’m a prime voter, so I don’t care.

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two; I’m happy to see the electorate is beginning to agree.

8. Vic Willis
9. Nellie Fox

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

So far we only have five infielders from the 1950s, with no one new on tap. (Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew, but he wasn’t a full-time player until ’59). That is simply too few for the decade. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

10. Bob Elliott
11. Ken Boyer

Boyer and Elliott make it back onto my ballot after the early 80s third basemen glut. It’s very hard for me to separate the two in my head; Bob was a little better hitter, Ken a little better at defense, but WS has them with almost identical career values. Elliott was clearly the best 3B of his time, while Boyer was not, so he gets a slight edge. Boyer would also give us another 1950s infielder. Sal Bando, currently at #20, is awfully close to these guys as well, and may soon join them.

12. Bucky Walters
13. Roger Bresnahan

Walters is #1 on at least three ballots; I’m glad to see more interest in him. While I recognize that his 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, I think there are other elements in his favor. He was a terrific hitter, and also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defenses were either in the service or growing old.

There’s been some good discussion thread about the appropriateness of balancing eras and positions. Obviously I think it’s a good idea. While I would not vote for somebody whom I felt did not deserve it just to fill a “slot,” it does make me look more closely at players, and I do use it as a tiebreaker. And there some gaps that just seem too large—for example, the twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in the other five years, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. He also would help fill a small gap we have in CF in the early oughts, 1901-5.


14. Gavvy Cravath
15. Dizzy Trout

Cravath averaged an 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not an age fluke. Similar to Kiner, although Kiner has the higher peak. Trout makes my ballot for the first time. We have very few pitchers from the war era, and Trout finished in the top ten in ERA+ seven times.

16-20: Cupid Childs, Frank Howard, Wally Schang, Tommy Leach, Sal Bando

Cupid Childs is the only player from last year’s top ten who didn’t make my ballot—and he’s #16 on my ballot right now. I like Fox more, and we have twice as many infielders from the 1890s than we do from the 1950s, but Cupid should make it back on my ballot in the next few years.
   86. sunnyday2 Posted: October 14, 2006 at 03:58 PM (#2211268)
Big Boppers OPS+

The first challenge is to get the following pairings (one threesome) right. I have waffled on all but the first one; though today they're in the order presented. All numbers adjusted as needed (e.g. season length, AA and FL discounts, WWII + or -, MiL MLEs, Roush holdout years aws discussed; you know what they are). "Yrs" are as a regular (adj), AB+BB are adj career totals.

Kiner 148/183-82-72-54-45-40-31-21-16-16 (10 yrs>100G, 6200AB+BB)
Keller 152/164-63-58-54-54-50-44-42-30 (9 yrs, 5000)

Cepeda 133/166-66-58-48-35-34-33-32-20-30-26-16-9-7 (14 yrs, 8500)
FHoward 143/180-73-72-54-51-48-46-38-27-15-14-5 (12, 7300)
Cravath 147/172-71-66-60-53-50-47-35-31-19-9-6 (12, 5500)

Browning 154/180-78-75-58-51-49-48-39-37-33 (10, 6700)
Jones 144/182-75-63-62-59-48-43-41-33-20-26 (11, 5500)

Roush 126/162-53-49-47-45-42-35-32-25-25-8-3 (12, 8600, '30 rated at <100OPS+)
Duffy 121/172-37-25-25-23-23-22-16-6 (9, 8850)

First, I'm a peak voter, so I prefer the first and third pairs to the second trio. I also like it when guys play full seasons (150+ games). That has more value toward a pennant than two 75 game efforts, so Keller and Duffy in particular drop a notch over what the data here might otherwise suggest.

But when you consider that the guys in the final pair also played defense and the rest of the guys didn't (relatively speaking, now), Roush shoots up to the top of all of these guys. His offensive rates and his career length are both OK, no blatant weakness on either side of the equation, and he played defense.

Minoso also belongs in this mix somewhere, and not at the bottom, but I don't think of him as a Big Bopper. 'Course neither are the CFers really. But among corner guys Minoso is a different type of player, more like a Tony Oliva. Norm Cash also goes in this group along with Oms, Colavito and Chuck Klein. These are the "hitters" in my top 30 at the moment.

In Summary/the expanded list of Boppers (as opposed to Big Boppers)

1. Roush
2. Kiner--the the big peak guys
3. Browning
4. Jones
5. Keller--there's an obvious case to have him below the indistiguishables
6. Cepeda--Cepeda, Howard, Cravath are the 3 (virtually) indistinguishables
7. Howard
7. Minoso--breaks up the indistinguishables, how did that happen?
8. Cravath
9. Cash--clearly below the indistinguishables
9. Duffy--compared to Roush and with just 1 year's exception, clearly the weaker offense plus short career as full time regular
10. Colavito
11. Klein
12. Oliva
13. Oms

Ashburn and Keeler among HoM/not PHoM would be in here somewhere (ahead of Oms). Bobby Bonds might belong ahead of a few of these guys too, but is toward the bottom of the list, and Hack Wilson goes somewhere on or near this list. Luke Easter is tempting but, no. He is off this list or at the bottom, just a semantic difference either way.
   87. Chris Cobb Posted: October 14, 2006 at 06:57 PM (#2211340)
1987 Ballot

The 1986 electees came from the top and the bottom of my ballot, so there’s upward movement throughout for 1987. My ballot is thin on pitchers this year, but we have been electing a lot of pitchers out of the backlog recently, so that I think we have done very will with pitchers. We are about to elect a lot of pitchers from the great late-60s to early-80s cohort, so I find it quite justifiable to have only a single pitcher on my ballot this year.

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments.

In 1987, I have been more swayed in my subjective adjustments than I have in the past by issues of positional balance. That has become a second tie-breaking factor, along with peak talent, in arranging the candidates whom my system sees as just about equal. So I have brought more infielders on to my ballot.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Rabbit Maranville (2) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
2. Quincy Trouppe. (4). % = 1.0453. Discussion of the anecdotal record solidifies Trouppe’s case for me. I think he is disadvantaged in NeL lore because he was not slick behind the plate. The comment cited from one former NeL player that Trouppe was a great athlete who could have played other positions, but he was only an ok catcher strongly suggests that the oral history underrates Trouppe for the same reason it has overrated players like Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
3. Edd Roush. (7). % = 1.0667. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me.
4. Charlie Keller (3). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
5. Billy Pierce (6). % = 1.0370. Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is gaining momentum: we should definitely elect him.
6. Dave Bancroft (10). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
7. Minnie Minoso (8). % = 1.0451. As with Keller, WARP and win shares agree that, with appropriate MLE credit, he is the best remaining candidate from the 1950s.
8. Alejandro Oms. (9) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
9. Tommy Leach. (11). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time.
10. Jimmy Wynn (5). % = 1.0386. I was overrating him a bit, not sure why.
11. Ralph Kiner (12). % = 1.0357. Didn’t have a well-rounded game, but the best bat eligible (after McCovey).
12. Jake Beckley (13). % = 1.0250. Holds steady in the new system.
13. Herman Long (14). % = 1.0192. As in Maranville’s case, I think Long’s long career of defensive excellence is being significantly underrated by the electorate.
14. Cupid Childs (21). % = 1.00. Dominance at his best plus positional balance considerations put Childs at the top of the borderline candidates in my system. His sudden decline also makes more sense now that we know that malaria was a factor. Drink may have been as well, of course. Makes my ballot for the first time since 1931.
15. Ken Boyer (19). % = 1.00. Makes my ballot for the first time. Ranks ahead of Norm Cash among 1960s borderliners on league-strength considerations. Positional considerations move him ahead of Bus Clarkson and Charley Jones.

1985 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Bus Clarkson (18). % = 1.00. Positional balance considerations drop him slightly below his near-equivalents, Childs and Boyer.
17. Charley Jones (16). % = 1.00. Still can’t quite pull the trigger to bring him on-ballot. I can’t make the argument that I would take him ahead of any of the outfielders on the ballot, and considerations of positional balance move him towards the rear of the players sitting on my all-time in/out line.
18. Bobby Bonds (n/e) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak. Has an argument to rank higher, but with half of my ballot occupied by outfielders, I decided to be a touch conservative with Bonds to start.
19. Norm Cash. (20) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Boyer and Bonds on league-strength considerations.
20. Gavvy Cravath (22). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked.
21. Nellie Fox (23). % = 1.00. I support his eventual election, but I see him as the very weakest “should elect” infielder now eligible. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Boyer and Childs have to offer, and they just barely make my ballot.
22. Bob Johnson (24). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
23. Joe Tinker (25). % = 1.00. Likewise
24. Dom Dimaggio (26). % = 1.00. Likewise
25. Jimmy Ryan (27). % = 1.00. Likewise
26. Dick Redding (17). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

27. Bill Monroe .9922
28. Don Newcombe .9886
29. Urban Shocker .9867
30. Burleigh Grimes .9845
31. George Burns .9879
32. Willie Davis .9896
33. Mike Griffin .9791
34. Johnny Evers .9779
35. Fielder Jones .9778
36. Lave Cross .9709
37. Hugh Duffy .9686
38. Johnny Pesky .9676
39. Ben Taylor .9667
40. Cy Seymour .9665
41. Dick Bartell .9653
42. George Van Haltren .9538
43. Larry Doyle .9614
44. Bobby Veach .9609
45. Buzz Arlett .9602
46. Vada Pinson .9599
47. Leroy Matlock .9544
48. Tommy Bond .9511


Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #21 above

Dick Redding. See #26 above.

Dobie Moore. He misses my ballot, and my top 50, because I don’t find his peak to be so outstanding that it counterbalances his lack of career.


New Arrivals worthy of note.

Sal Bando. Looks quite different depending upon which comprehensive metrics you look at, but I’m not convinced his hitting was outstanding enough to make him a truly great player despite below average defense at third base. Trails Boyer and Elliott at third base. Probably among the top 100 eligible players, but not the top 50. His % value is .9136, as compared to Elliott at .9408 and Boyer at 1.000.

Mike Marshall. Extraordinary records of in-season durability as a relief pitcher put him among the top relievers of the reliever-rich 1970s, but his effectiveness was not outstanding enough to make him a serious candidate for election. My assessment of his value places him well behind Gossage and Fingers and a little bit behind Hiller and McGraw among 1970s relievers. Hiller, McGraw, and Marshall were quite comparable, as I see it, to starters like Mickey Lolich and Catfish Hunter: very valuable pitchers, but not HoM material. His % value is .8190, compared to Hiller at .8994, Lolich at .8785 and Hunter at .8320.
   88. James Newburg is in awe of Cespedes' CORE STRENGTH Posted: October 15, 2006 at 09:06 AM (#2212404)
1987 Ballot

1. Charlie Keller - Seven MVP-level seasons of 30 Win Shares; no player on this ballot can match that (including McCovey). Keller beats the "short career" rap with over 300 career Win Shares.
2. Minnie Minoso - Very long prime with 13 seasons of at least 20 Win Shares with another at 19. I agree with whoever said (I think it was Kelly in SD) that he belongs in the bottom quartile of HOM outfielders with guys like Slaughter and Sheckard (I'm not sure if they're bottom-quartile, but they're the same type of player in career shape and value).
3. Phil Rizzuto - I'm with Marc (sunnyday2): I'm not all that concerned about overrepresenting shortstops. An outstanding 1950 season plus a strong prime lands him this high. Hey, we just elected a very similar guy in Sewell. Very slightly behind -- essentially tied with -- Walters in my system, but concerns about properly apportioning defensive value between Walters and his Cincinnati fielders breaks the tie.
4. Bucky Walters - B Williams' posts on the Cincinnati defense are definitely food for thought. Still, Walters managed to leverage about two-thirds of his career value (in my system) in his four best seasons. he had some truly massive seasons for a modern-day pitcher.
5. Nellie Fox - Similar career shape to Marvin Williams, but peak seasons lift Fox from the two dozen or so players contending for the bottom third of my ballot and place him here. As Bill James wrote, he was the only man to legitimately take an MVP award from Mickey Mantle during the 1950s. Clear dropoff from Walters to Fox; thus begins the descent into turning granular differences into clear value judgments for the purpose of filling out a ballot.

6. Alejandro Oms - Case in point. Very similar to guys like Minoso, Brock and Bob Johnson. Oms had several All-Star type seasons that would put him on the fringes of MVP contention if things broke right -- think Justin Morneau this year.
7. Quincy Trouppe - The discussion about Trouppe isn't like other Negro Leaguers -- leavened with humorous anecdotes or contemporary accounts about how he could hit a baseball over the Grand Canyon -- but the guy could play. He caught for a long time and raked. What more do you need?
8. Sal Bando - Maybe the most underrated player on the Swingin' A's. I'm a Win Shares guy and his best seasons are especially impressive for a third baseman. Respectable career value, to borrow a phrase from the estimable Chris Cobb.
9. Bobby Bonds - Solid peak, prime, and career. More peak than Brock, more career than Wynn, which explains Bonds' placement compared to his peers on this ballot. He's probably a solid half-step below the typical HOM corner outfielder in these categories, but this is a backlog election.
10. Lou Brock - His peak won't knock anyone's socks off, and his flaws are obvious (poor plate discipline, poor defense, underwhelming bat for a corner outfielder) but being in the lineup nearly every day for about a dozen years and playing around an All-Star level is Meritorious.

11. Jimmy Wynn - Rice v. Wynn might be the litmus test for sabermetricians like Roe v. Wade is for Supreme Court nominees. Anyway, Wynn's seven best seasons stack up favorably against nearly every eligible player. I'm glad to see the electorate warming to his candidacy. Maybe the best .250 hitter in baseball history.
12. Dick Redding - I don't think I'll ever really have a good handle on his career. I do think he's one of the top three pitchers eligible and I couldn't justify putting him behind Willis. My best reading of the numbers is that Redding and Willis are very similar in value and career shape.
13. Gavy Cravath - I decided to take the leap of faith and accept the latest MLEs for Cravath at just about face value. Certainly a most unusual case, but his slow-footed slugging ways went against the prevailing conventional wisdom of "reach on error-steal second-sacrifice to third-squeeze bunt for base hit" baseball.
14. Vic Willis - Ate a lot of innings with a good degree of effectiveness. Side note: if Willis didn't pitch for the putrid Boston teams of the early 1900s, he would have won at least 275 games and flirted with 300. How much differently might we see him then?
15. Vern Stephens - His name came up in an article I wrote recently about the greatest players in California community college history (it doesn't seem to be posted online anywhere, unfortunately). Anyway, he had a couple of genuinely outstanding seasons and likely deserved to make eight AL All-Star teams in nine seasons (1943-1951).

Next 15

(A note: I "subjectively" moved Pierce, Kiner and Boyer up about 10 places from where they originally ranked because a) I feel that the electorate "knows something" about these guys and b) I feel more certain about their value, even though my system might say that other players are more valuable. It is purely coincidential that they are #17-19.

For me, any ranking outside of the top five or so relies at least a little bit on making a "gut call.")


16. Don Newcombe
17. Billy Pierce - As much as I like a pitcher with about 3400 innings and a 119 ERA+, I can't do enough mental contortions to justify putting Pierce and his lack of peak on my ballot and sticking with it. Or maybe I'm just not properly evaluating post-1945 pitchers.
18. Ralph Kiner - Four great seasons, four good ones and that's it.
19. Ken Boyer - I can't really point to any glaring flaws to justify him being off my ballot. His peak falls just short, I guess.
20. Buzz Arlett

21. Luke Easter
22. George Scales
23. Burleigh Grimes
24. Bob Elliott
25. Orlando Cepeda

26. Frank Howard
27. Bob Johnson
28. Marvin Williams
29. Bus Clarkson
30. Wally Berger

Other Top 10 Returnees Off the Ballot

~35. Jake Beckley - I'll probably stop writing about him like he's history's greatest monster, but he's still not going to make a ballot any millennium soon. Low peak (no peak?) ... yada, yada, yada. You've heard it all before.
~35. Dobie Moore - He has the lowest career WS total of anyone in my top 50. There's no questioning that Moore was a HOM-caliber player, but if your career isn't even 10 full seasons, you need to be playing at damn near inner-circle level to make it. That leaves a margin of error so small that you'd need an electron microscope to see it.
~40. Cupid Childs - I'm using WARP1 and WARP2 for in-season competition adjustments, which really seems to hammer players from his era. I'm agnostic on whether the level of adjustment is justified.
   89. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: October 15, 2006 at 03:58 PM (#2212487)
1. Ralph Kiner: Tremendous hitter. Seven home run titles! Easy number 1. I hope he gets in this "year".
2. Dobie Moore: I'm a believer, and I think that he belongs even without Wreckers credit.
3. Hugh Duffy: 16.72 RC/27 in his best season. That's freakin awesome. Good glove, made his teams better. I like him a lot.
4. Ken Boyer: Brooks Robinson-lite, but with a peak.
5. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak for a pitcher of his day.
6. Charlie Keller: Poor man's Kiner. Close with war credit, but Kiner's huge peak was real.
7. Pete Browning: He could rake. Perhaps an early-day Dick Allen?
8. Thurman Munson: I'm beginning to feel like he's closer to Freehan than I've been giving him credit for. One of my "Teddy Bears".
9. Alejandro Oms: I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player.
10. Jake Beckley: Took a closer look at him, and moved him here. I wasn't giving him enough credit for the glove. Some sort of a peak, and he'd be top 5.
11. Minnie Minoso: Still don't know what to make of him.
12. Cupid Childs: For a second baseman, he could hit. Pretty solid with the glove too. Him being at 12 is a complement to the ballot at large.
13. GVH: Profiles similar to Beckley, Beckley's defense the edge.
14. Norm Cash: Peaktacular, but I don't like that he was platooned.
15. Chuck Klein: He's very close to Kiner until you adjust for park.

16-20: Frank Howard, Lou Brock, Ben Taylor, Roy White, Mickey Lolich
21-40: Dick Redding, Addie Joss, Nellie Fox, Charley Jones, Dizzy Dean, Gavvy Cravath, Roger Bresnahan, Quincy Trouppe, Sam Rice, Pie Traynor, Mike Marshall, Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn, Orlando Cepeda, Catfish Hunter, Bob Johnson, John McGraw, Wally Schang, Bobby Bonds, Sal Bando

Marshall - 72-74 might be the best three year relief peak I've seen. Not enough else to justify him higher
Bonds - Similar, but lesser than, Jimmy Wynn
Bando - Nice player, but he is not better than McGraw or Traynor
   90. AJMcCringleberry Posted: October 15, 2006 at 06:58 PM (#2212555)
I can't do enough mental contortions to justify putting Pierce and his lack of peak on my ballot and sticking with it.

Not that I think he has a great peak, but I think it's pretty good. He was top 10 in innings 6 times and in those years he was top 5 in ERA+ 4 times and the top 10 the other 2. In another year he led in ERA+ with a 201 in 205 innings.
   91. Daryn Posted: October 15, 2006 at 07:30 PM (#2212583)
Charlie Keller - Seven MVP-level seasons of 30 Win Shares; no player on this ballot can match that (including McCovey). Keller beats the "short career" rap with over 300 career Win Shares.

If you are going to credit someone with a fabricated peak or career (and I use the term fabricated non-connotatively), shouldn't you at least acknowledge that you are doing so? Advising us what credit you are giving helps us analyze the merit of the vote.
   92. Daryn Posted: October 15, 2006 at 07:32 PM (#2212585)
Rice v. Wynn might be the litmus test for sabermetricians like Roe v. Wade is for Supreme Court nominees.

Is pro-Rice pro-life or pro-choice? And is one of them wrong?
   93. Jeff M Posted: October 15, 2006 at 10:09 PM (#2212697)
1987 Ballot

1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

2. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

3. Browning, Pete – He proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project. How is it that Browning and Jones are only on 1/3 of the ballots?

4. Roush, Edd -- 300+ WS; 100+ WARP1; normalized .322/.368/.444; good grey ink; and an above average defender in the outfield.

5. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhits the average hitter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

6. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust, but he still fares well overall. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position in the outfield, I rank him higher than Williams.

7. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on certain career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

8. Childs, Cupid – I’ve been reevaluating all candidates (from the start of the project). Childs didn’t really gain any points, but some guys around him lost points, so Childs vaults onto the ballot, at least until I get through the rest of the century.

9. Dean, Dizzy -- Hard to get this high a ballot position with only five or so seasons, but Dean is the exception.

10. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years.

11. Moore, Dobie – I think he is a notch below HoM level, but would have been a shoo-in with a few more years.

12. Long, Herman – From the dustbin, a 300+ aWS & 130+ aWARP1 shortstop.

13. Maranville, Rabbit – Defense and long career get him a ballot spot.

14. Traynor, Pie – I’ll admit his numbers don’t stand out, but the hot corner was a different position then, and there aren’t a lot of good candidates at 3b.

15. McGraw, John – A couple more full seasons and he would have easily gained significantly on the ballot.

Required Disclosure(s):

Kiner, Ralph – An outstanding player, but a short career that suffers in my system b/c I use a combination of peak and career. I don’t think he should significantly outrank Oms in the consensus voting. Oms played a tougher position better than Ralph played his weak position, has more career WS and isn’t much behind in peak. If Ralph had played a couple more years he’d leave Oms in the dust. But he didn’t. If he gets elected, I won’t be brokenhearted.

Pierce, Billy -- On my ballot last time, but I was giving modern pitchers too many wins to make up for the fact that early pitchers got wins too easily. I revamped my system for making those adjustments, and Pierce fell off the ballot.

Boyer, Ken – Also on my ballot last time but slid off with reevaluations of a few more candidates from the backlog.

Fox, Nellie – Been on and off the ballot. He’s pretty much tied with Boyer.

Redding, Dick – This must be some kind of trick, cuz it ain’t a treat.

Wynn, Jimmy – Barely in my consideration set. Can’t give him much credit for being a centerfielder because he probably shouldn’t have been there. He seems like a candidate only for extreme peak voters, and even then it seems a stretch to consider him as a truly great player.
   94. Thane of Bagarth Posted: October 15, 2006 at 10:19 PM (#2212704)
1987 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

Being generous with bonus credit, but pressed for time of late, I'm planning on reviewing hold-out credit for Roush, et al. next election (Charley Jones is already getting credit, but he seems to be a slightly different animal).


1) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

2) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers (yet).

3) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

4) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career, before Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

5) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

6) Quincy Trouppe
Best available among those who primarily played catcher, Black or White. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

7) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5. Balancing the two lands George right in the middle of my ballot.

8) Ken Boyer
50.5 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is around what I would guess the average HoMer gets. Plus 99.4 WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

9) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 48.6 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career (though total Win Shares seem a little low): 87.9 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

10) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

11) Ralph Kiner
149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.

12) Jimmy Ryan
As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part 1):
Career 5yr Peak
WS W1 W3 WS W1 W3
JR 316 114.6 90.4 129 49.1 38.0
GVH 344 114.3 86.5 133 45.6 36.4
(apologies if spacing above is krunked up...the preview window doesn't seem to like what I'm doing)

Needless to say, there’s not a big difference between ballot spots 7 and 12.

13) Gavy Cravath
I’ve been pretty generous with MiL credit, which helps Gavy get on the ballot.

14) Dobie Moore
I rank him as significantly better than Hughie Jennings, but not exactly a shoe-in for future enshrinement.

15) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner and Howard for best top 3 seasons in Win Shares (unadjusted for season length) with 102.

The Rest of the Top 30
16) Charley Jones
17) Sam Rice
18) Nellie Fox
19) Minnie Minoso—Longevity, mixed with modest peak and some NeL credit has him teetering between on and off the bottom of my ballot.
20) Billy Pierce—He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.
21) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
22) Tommy Leach
23) Rabbit Maranville
24) Burleigh Grimes
25) Jack Quinn
26) Norm Cash
27) Buzz Arlett
28) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind Keller, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
29) Bob Elliot
30) Harry Hooper
31) Vada Pinson
32) Phil Rizzuto
33) Alejandro Oms
34) Hugh Duffy
35) Orlando Cepeda
36) Bus Clarkson
37) Lou Brock
38) Vern Stephens
39) Dom DiMaggio
40) Spot Poles
41) Gil Hodges
42) Cy Seymour
43) Fielder Jones
44) Johnny Pesky
45) George Burns
46) Dave Bancroft
47) Dolph Luque
48) Cupid Childs—His new WARP #s move him into the top 50, but I still can’t find room in my top 15 for him.
49) Willie Davis
50) Carl Mays

Notable Newcomers:
52) Sal Bando—He has decent numbers, but I have him right behind Toby Harrah, not anywhere near the upcoming wave of better 3rd basemen in the next 10+ years—Schmidt, Brett, Bell, Evans and Cey.

XX) Mike Marshall—Impressive peak for a reliever, but just not that much value for his career.
   95. Chris Fluit Posted: October 15, 2006 at 11:47 PM (#2212771)
Jeff M Posted: October 15, 2006 at 06:09 PM (#2212697)
1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

Is Manush actually in the HoM?
   96. OCF Posted: October 15, 2006 at 11:58 PM (#2212787)
Manush is not in the HoM, nor should he be. My system has a rather large difference - on the order of 40% or 50% - between Manush and Wheat. And while Sisler is in the HoM (without me voting for him), comparing someone to him is not the path to convincing me.
   97. dan b Posted: October 16, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#2212843)
PHoM 1987 – Boyer, Fox, Ashburn

1. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons.
2. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
3. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
4. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
5. Roush PHoM 1942. Better than Ashburn
6. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
7. Pierce PHoM 1985. By WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
8. Minoso PHoM 1972.
9. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
10. Wynn, J PHoM 1986.
11. Boyer, K PHoM 1987. More deserving than Sewell.
12. Fox, N PHoM 1987.
13. Bando Close to Boyer.
14. Howard, F Howard and Bonds are tough to separate.
15. Bonds, Bo
16. Howard, E
17. Cravath
18. Leach
19. Munson
20. Cooper, W
21. Mays, C
22. Doyle
23. Cepeda
24. Berger
25. Browning
   98. mulder & scully Posted: October 16, 2006 at 06:15 AM (#2213586)
Used to be Kelly in SD

1987 Ballot:

Sorry I missed 1986, but just too much life to post my ballot. Looking at the results, my votes would not have made much, if any effect on the top 10 results. Very difficult year trying to figure out who to add to the end of my ballot and who to induct into my PHOM. Do I go for positional balance or best ranking player regardless of position? PHOM candidates were Torre, Bresnahan, Doyle, Fournier, Elliott, Rosen, Fox, F Howard, E Howard.

To recap my balloting:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.

PHOM: 1987: Roger Bresnahan, Larry Doyle, Joe Torre
PHOM: 1986: Willie McCovey and Early Wynn
PHOM: 1985: Frank Chance, Wilbur Cooper, and Ralph Kiner
PHOM: 1984: Billy Williams and Jimmy Wynn
PHOM: 1983: Bill Freehan and Brooks Robinson
PHOM: 1982: Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson
PHOM: 1981: Bob Gibson and Harmon Killebrew
PHOM: 1980: Al Kaline, Juan Marichal, and Ron Santo
PHOM: 1979: Willie Mays and Gavy Cravath

1. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): The weight of the evidence.

2. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906): The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1980, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
Top 10 position player in 1876, 1878, 1879, 1883, 1884, 1885. Eleventh in 1877. Pro-rated 10th or 11th after blacklisted in 1880. Blacklisted in 1881 and 1882. Best player in 1884, top 4 in 1878, 1879 and 1885.

3. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921): Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

4. Charlie Keller (PHOM 1957): MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979. Top 10 position player in AL in 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, and 1946. If you pro-rate his 1945 season, he is top 10 that year also. Ranks: 10th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th. 1945 pro-rated he comes out the best position player along with Greenberg.

5. Quincy Troupe (PHOM 1960): A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 1980.

6. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919): A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. I need to post that to the Duffy thread soon. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

7. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958): Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

8. Cupid Childs (PHOM 1932): Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close. 11th all-time among second basemen. Top 10 position player in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, and 1896. 1st in AA, 9th, 2nd, 8th, and 7th in NL.
Best in league/majors at second in 1890, 1891 (t), 1892, 1893, 1894(t), 1895, 1896

9. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966): Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

10. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979): Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis.
   99. mulder & scully Posted: October 16, 2006 at 06:19 AM (#2213587)
11. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942): Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906.

12. Dobie Moore (PHOM 1967): Banks before Banks. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1980 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers. Best SS, if in majors, in 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924, and 1925.

13. Jimmy Wynn (PHOM 1984): 4 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors. Best centerfielder eligible from Mays until ... Dale Murphy? Five years after Griffey, Jr. retires? Top 10 in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, and 1974. 9th, 3rd, 4th, 11th, 6th, 4th.

14. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

15. Roush (PHOM 1940): 3 MVP type years, excellent defense. Top 10 in NL in 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1923, 1925, 1926. 4th t/9th t, 5th t/11th t, 1st/2nd, 2nd/5th, 3rd t/8th t, 9th/15th t, 9th t/22nd t.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1917-20, 1923. Top 3 in majors in 1919, 1920.

16. Kiner (PHOM 1985): Just a hair behind Burns for 3rd best LF on my board. Top 10 in NL in 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 2nd t/5th t, 2nd/3rd, 10th t/21st t, 3rd/3rd
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1947-49, 1951. Top 3 in majors in 1947, 1949, 1951.

17. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964): Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.

18. Orestes Minoso: Did not place quite as high in his league as Burns and Kiner did. Top 10 in AL in 1951, 1953, 1954, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960. 7th t/16th t, 4th t/9th t, 5th/9th, 11th t, 3rd/5th t, 6th t/13th t, 7th t/11th t, 3rd t/7th t, 3rd t/11th t.
Top 3 in AL outfield in 1951, 1952 (tied with 5 others for 3rd in AL), 1953, 1954, 1956, 1959, 1960. Top 3 in majors in 1953 (tied with 3 others for 3rd).

19. Chance (PHOM 1985): Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

20: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961): Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

21: Cooper, Wilbur (PHOM 1985): He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

22. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987): I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1906, 1908. Rank in league/majors: 5th/8th, 10th/24th, 7th/11th, 8th/15th. Best catcher in majors in 1905, 1906, 1908. Best centerfielder in majors 1903.

23. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

24. Jack Fournier: Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career. Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career.

25. Frank Howard: Just slightly below the left field knot at 14/16/18 and Billy Williams. Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with. Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971 . Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.
   100. mulder & scully Posted: October 16, 2006 at 06:24 AM (#2213589)
26. Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.

27. Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889

28. Don Newcombe: Credit for minor league years, NeL years, and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great.

29. Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. May need to do a recall election...

30. Rosen: What if...

31. Norm Cash: I had been overrating him. I did not look close enough at how he compared to other 60s players. Top 10 in league only 4 times: 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966. Adjusting for additional teams only adds 1971. 2nd/2nd, 10th t/27th t, 10th t/25th t, 6th/13th, 13th w/24 (71).
Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Best in majors in 1961. Even with the missed games.

32. Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense.

33. Van Haltren (PHOM 1939): Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.

34. Elston Howard: I kept overlooking him. I don’t know what to do about balancing his actual value to the team compared with his opporunity issues: Korea, race, playing behind Berra.

35. Sal Bando: A conservative placement. There are so many good thirdbasemen in this era that I want to be careful. Could move up if I see a good enough argument. His peak is very good, his prime is good but his career is so-so as are his per-year numbers. Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1978 Rank in league/majors: 3rd/6th t, 3rd t/9th t, 12th t/25th t, 2nd t/6th t, 12th t/24th t, 11th t/28ht t.
Top 3b in league in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973. In majors in 1969, 1972, 1973.

36. Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there.

37. Cepeda: A little behind Cash. Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.

38. Pierce: Great rates, but like many in the AL 1950s, lacks big innings pitched. While a managerial decision over which he had no control, it does prevent him from racking up a lot of value. Ranks 7th in his decade.

39. Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.

40. Schang: I see the arguments

41. Stivetts: 4th best pitcher in the 1890s. Trouble was he pitched right as the distance changed and he was worked to death to start his career.

42. Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.

43. Maglie: Credit for Mexican League helps

44. Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding.

45. Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw

46. Scales: Pretty good player. Will probably move up after I adjust for Hall of Fame’s new numbers.

47. Hippo Vaughn: Excellent peak, but not enough career in the majors.

48 McGraw: Just not healthy enough.

49. Thurman Munson: Career wasn’t long enough and peak wasn’t high enough.

50. Lon Warneke: A good peak, but not as high as Dean and his career is not long enough.

51. Berger: Not enough prime years for me.

52. Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.

53. Elliott: I need to review his candidacy

54. Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.

55. Jones, F: Excellent defender. Stats are hard to difficult to understand because fo the context:

56/57. Denny Lyons / Ed Williamson: Two excellent third basemen of a bygone era.

58: Bobby Bonds: 4 very good years is not enough, especially considering how many good outfielders there are in the late 60s/early 70s. Very good peak, but many outfielders had better in that era. Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1977. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/11th t, 4th/8th, 4th/5th t, 14th t/25th t, 5th t/6th t, 11th t/25th t, 14th t/25th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1970, 1971, 1973. In majors in 1970, 1971.


I decided to go with positional balance for the PHOM so Bresnahan and Doyle made it over Minoso. He will make it soon. There is very little separation from about 24 down to 39. I am in the process of re-examining the bottom half of my ballot in the same depth as the top half. Next year I hope to make it down through Fox.
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