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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, November 06, 2006

1989 Ballot

Top new candidates: Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Jim Kaat, Bert Campaneris, and Gene Tenace.

Returning top-ten candidates: Ken Boyer, Jimmy Wynn, Nellie Fox, Dobie Moore, Charley Jones, Jake Beckley, Edd Roush, and Pete Browning.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 06, 2006 at 01:45 PM | 128 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 06, 2006 at 02:16 PM (#2232158)
It's nice not seeing a certain second baseman near the top of my ballot this (or any future) week. :-)

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Johnny Bench-C/3b (n/e): The greatest all-around backstop that I ever saw has to be numero uno this week. Best major league catcher for 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974, (close in 1975), and 1976. Best NL catcher for 1975.

2) Carl Yastrzemski-LF/1B/DH/CF (n/e): A player of his caliber would normally be #1 in a normal election, so it's no disgrace that he follows Bench. Easy HoM selection. Best major league left fielder for 1963, 1967, 1968. Best major league first baseman for 1970.

3) Gaylord Perry-P (n/e): For a guy with 300 wins and 2 Cy Young Awards to his credit, he doesn't really get the credit he deserves. Unlike the HOF, we should rectify that to an extent with his induction his first year of eligibility. Close to being the best major league pitcher in 1972; best in 1974. Best AL pitcher for 1972.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Charlie Keller-LF (4): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. With reasonable WWII and MiL credit, I can't see Kiner going in before him (peak voters have an argument, though), IMO. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

6) Charley Jones-LF/CF (5): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

7) Bucky Walters-P (6): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

8) Mickey Welch-P (7): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

9) Pete Browning-CF/LF (8): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

10) Vic Willis-P (9): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 06, 2006 at 02:17 PM (#2232161)
11) Fergie Jenkins-P (n/e): Going to place him here for now until I can get a handle on his generation of pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1971.

12) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/dh (10): Glad to see that he's getting support now. Best player at his position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, 1969, and 1972. Best right fielder for 1974.

13) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (11): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

14) Gavvy Cravath-RF (12): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

15) Alejandro Oms-CF (13): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

Boyer, Fox, Beckley, and Roush all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short. Moore got knocked off this week due to the new candidates.

Kaat and Campaneris were really good players, but I wont have them on my ballot. Tenace also doesn't make it, but I'm not sure how far away he belongs yet.
   3. Max Parkinson Posted: November 06, 2006 at 02:48 PM (#2232171)
1989 ballot (MP HoMers in bold, new electees in ’89 are Bench, Yaz and Perry):

1. Johnny Bench

Through ’89, he’s the best ML catcher ever, and second only to Gibson overall. I see very strained arguments necessary for him to be any lower than #2.

2. Yaz

4th best ML Left Fielder to date – behind Williams, Musial and Delahanty.

3. Gaylord Perry

Gaylord wants to remind you all that the mark on Kenny Rogers’ hand was just dirt.

Again, just dirt.

4. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

5. Fergie Jenkins

Oh, how one wishes that bonus points for citizenship were constitutional……. Next year, Mr. Jenkins.

6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

8. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

9. Dick Redding
10. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

11. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

12. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

13. Ben Taylor
14. George Burns
15. Bobby Veach

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

16-20. Keller, Walters, Cash, Lazzeri, Bancroft
21-25. Duffy, Munson, Konetchy, B. Johnson, Tenace
26-30. R. White, W. Wood, Cuyler, Cicotte, Shocker
31-35. Roush, Youngs, Bridges, Klein, Tiernan
36-40. Hooper, Campaneris, Rucker, F. Jones, Traynor
41-45. Trouppe, Boyer, Bonds, Bradley, F. Howard
46-50. Wynn, Willis, Trout, E. Howard, Oms
51-55. Seymour, Nicholson, Leach, Chance, Griffin
56-60. Cepeda, Gomez, Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang
61-65. S.J. Wood, Nash, R. Smith, Dunlap, Luque
66-70. Beckley, Harder, Bottomley, B. Elliott, Bartell
71-75. Bando, Hodges, N. Fox, Newcombe, Fournier
76-80. V. Stephens, Pennock, Maranville, Bresnahan, Mays

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Fox – 73.
Boyer – 42.
Roush – 31. He’s recently moved up about 10 spots.
Beckley – 66.
Wynn – 46.

I just don’t see any of these as particularly electable. I’m closest with Roush, but I fear that the gap between my HoM and the general one will grow once we get past the 89-92 rush.
   4. favre Posted: November 06, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#2232184)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Carl Yastrzemski
2. Johnny Bench
3. Gaylord Perry

I can see an argument for putting Bench ahead of Yaz. But if I was an owner in a 1960s Diamond Mind league and had a chance to take one or the other I would take Yastrzemski, hands down—higher peak, and more value over the long run. I had no idea that Perry was this good; he would have been an easy #1 peak on a lot of ballots.

4. Charley Jones

Jones averaged an OPS+ of 164 between 1876-1880, his age 26-30 years. I have no problem giving him credit for his blacklisted seasons. He was a star before and after those years, and I’m not inclined to penalize someone banned from working by his employers because he tried to collect back pay.

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments), approximately 150 career OPS+ with a high somewhere in the 170s, eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits), not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

5. Jake Beckley
6. Dobie Moore
7. Jimmy Wynn

Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. Beckley is similar to Minoso: very good defense, not a particularly high peak, but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. Minoso’s peak wasn’t much higher (best season 155 OPS+, Beckley’s 152), although it was certainly longer.

Moore is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see why we put Sewell ahead. Wynn did not have a huge peak, but his prime is excellent, posting six seasons with an OPS+ between 140-167, five of those as a CF. He doesn’t have much outside his prime, but I’m a prime voter, so I don’t care.

8. Vic Willis
9. Ferguson Jenkins

I imagine this will be a pretty low ranking for Jenkins. I love his long prime, but less impressed by his peak; Willis had bigger years. We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

10. Nellie Fox
11. Bob Elliott
12. Ken Boyer

So far we only have five infielders from the 1950s, with no one new on tap. (Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew, but he wasn’t a full-time player until ’59). That is simply too few for the decade. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

Boyer and Elliott make it back onto my ballot after the early 80s third basemen glut. It’s very hard for me to separate the two in my head; Bob was a little better hitter, Ken a little better at defense, but WS has them with almost identical career values. Elliott was clearly the best 3B of his time, while Boyer was not, so he gets a slight edge. Boyer would also give us another 1950s infielder. Sal Bando, currently at #25, is awfully close to these guys as well, and may soon join them.

13. Bucky Walters
14. Roger Bresnahan
15. Gavvy Cravath

Walters is #1 on four ballots last year; I’m glad to see more interest in him. While I recognize that his 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defenses were either in the service or growing old. Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke. Similar to Kiner, although Kiner has the higher peak.

There’s been some good discussion thread about the appropriateness of balancing eras and positions. Obviously I think it’s a good idea. While I would not vote for somebody whom I felt did not deserve it just to fill a “slot,” it does make me look more closely at players, and I do use it as a tiebreaker. And there some gaps that just seem too large—for example, the twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in the other five years, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. He also would help fill a small gap we have in CF in the early oughts, 1901-5.

16-20: Dizzy Trout, Tommy Leach, Dick Redding, Charlie Keller, Wally Schang

Not in my top fifteen:

Pete Browning See Jones comment. I’m more sceptical of the AA than other voters, although there’s no doubt that Browning could mash.

Edd Roush Had some playing time issues. I give candidates from underrepresented positions/eras more weight; Roush was a contemporary of Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, and Torriente. That doesn’t remove him from consideration, but it doesn’t exactly lend a sense of urgency for his candidacy, either.
   5. favre Posted: November 06, 2006 at 03:15 PM (#2232188)
Correction to my ballot: 13. Bucky Walters
Walters, in fact, was only #1 on one ballot, though in an elect-me spot on four.
   6. Rusty Priske Posted: November 06, 2006 at 03:20 PM (#2232193)
PHoM: Carl Yastrzemski, Gaylord Perry, Johnny Bench

Not a whole lot of drama this week, I'd imagine. :)

1. Carl Yastrzemski (new)
2. Gaylord Perry (new)
3. Johnny Bench (new)

Do you want to argue the order? Feel free because I'm not amrried to it...however, the gap between the 'elect-me' spots and the non-'elect-me' spots is HUGE.

4. Mickey Welch (7,5,5)
5. Ferguson Jenkins (new)

Jenkins nearly made it a Top 4 of newbies, but I think Welch is slightly more deserving.

6. Jake Beckley (2,1,2)

7. Edd Roush (8,8,10)

8. Nellie Fox (6,3,4)

9. George Van Haltren (4,6,3)

Slip-sliding awaaaaaayaaay

10. Jimmy Wynn (5,7,6)

11. Tommy Leach (10,10,9)

12. Dobie Moore (11,4,8)

13. Lou Brock (9,2,7)

14. Hugh Duffy (13,9,12)

15. Quincy Trouppe (12,11,11)

16-20. Cepeda, Cash, R.Smith, Bonds, Mullane
21-25. Johnson, Rice, Browning, F.Howard, Streeter
26-30. Willis, Grimes, Redding, Ryan, Strong
   7. ronw Posted: November 06, 2006 at 05:04 PM (#2232248)
1988 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Johnny Bench 20.6 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 13 AS. With catcher bonus, one of the all-time greats.

2. Carl Yastrzemski 21.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 15 AS. It is not a horrible thing to be #2 on this ballot.

3. Gaylord Perry 20.7 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 15AS. This ballot rivals the class of ’34.

4. Ferguson Jenkins 21.3 pWS/300IP, 5 CY, 8 AS. Must wait one whole year.

5. Dick Redding If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

6. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

7. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

8. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

9. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

10. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

11. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

12. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

13. Luis Tiant – 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

14. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

15. Lou Brock - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds pretty good to me.

16. Charlie Keller. 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit, he probably should be at least tied with Kiner.

17. Jimmy Wynn. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

18. Ben Taylor. I’m having trouble between Ben and Jake.

19. Jake Beckley. 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

20. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

21. Bob Elliott. 20.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. Also has appeared on my ballot before.

22. Quincy Trouppe. I’m have come around on him.

23. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Definitely in the consideration set.

24. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Better than I expected.


LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Missing top 10

Ken Boyer – 17.9 bWS/700 PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Not quite enough from a hitting position for me. I like Bob Elliott and Sal Bando better.

Nellie Fox – 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Wouldn’t be a horrible selection, but I like a little more hitting, and prefer Doyle/Childs to Nellie.

Charley Jones – 24.9 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS. Maybe I should rethink whether to give him holdout credit. That is the only thing keeping him from my ballot.

Edd Roush – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. Like Charley, maybe needs holdout credit. I haven’t been giving it to him.

New Notables

Jim Kaat – 17.8 pWS/300IP, 2 MVP, 6 AS. Would be close to Red Faber, if it weren’t for Faber’s monster 1921.

Bert Campaneris – 13.0 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 9 AS. Dominated a very weak contingent of 1970’s SS.

Gene Tenace – 24.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Hugely underrated player. Still, I think he’s slightly behind Munson, Elston Howard, and the catchers on my ballot.
   8. ronw Posted: November 06, 2006 at 05:05 PM (#2232249)
That is 1989 ballot, not 1988.
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2006 at 05:43 PM (#2232272)
"We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap."

As someone else noted previously, Pete Rose was a full-time 2B from 1963-66...
   10. favre Posted: November 06, 2006 at 05:49 PM (#2232276)
"As someone else noted previously, Pete Rose was a full-time 2B from 1963-66..."

I had not seen this previously, but you're right, of course... I'll update the comment next ballot.
   11. Mike Green Posted: November 06, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#2232285)
I presume that Joe Morgan won't have much difficulty in qualifying. He was a full-time second baseman in 65. The second base crop from 65-05 is pretty impressive- Morgan, Carew, Sandberg, Grich, Whitaker, Alomar, Biggio and Kent.
   12. rawagman Posted: November 06, 2006 at 06:29 PM (#2232309)
1989 Ballot

Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do.
Bench, Yaz and G. Perry jump right into my PHOM, Jenkins takes his place at the front of the line. Kaat is somewhere around 100th, 22nd in my pitcher backlog. Gene Tenace starts at around 80th among eligibles, 9th among catchers. I don't see Campy as highly as others.
Then there's Jimmy Wynn - I'm just not impressed. Not in my top 75.

1)Johnny Bench - Maybe the best all-around (complete game) catcher in history. (PHOM)
2)Carl Yastrzemski (PHOM)
3)Gaylord Perry - Could have gone either way between Gay-lerd and Yaz, but I find Yaz's longevity a tad more interesting. (PHOM)
4)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
5)Fergie Jenkins - Loyalty to Duffy, or just blindness. Oh, Canada!
6)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on (and up!!) the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
7)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
8)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available backlog pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
9)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
10)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
11)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week. (PHOM)
12)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations.
13)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
((13a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
((13b)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))

14)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
((14a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.))
15)Orlando Cepeda
16)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.
17)Wally Berger - super-underrated
18)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half.
19)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((19a)Juan Marichal))
20)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
21)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
22)Roger Bresnahan
23)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
24)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((24a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((24b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))
25)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
26)Chuck Klein
27)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
28)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit.
29)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((29a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
30)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.
31)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((31a)Cupid Childs))
32)Pete Browning
33)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
34)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
35)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
36)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
37)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
38)Phil Rizzuto
39)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
40)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
41)John McGraw
42)Jimmy Ryan
43)Cy Williams
44)Dolf Camilli
45)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
46)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
47)George Kell
48)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
49)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
50)Sal Bando
51)Pie Traynor - makes a leap to here.
52)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
53)Johnny Evers
54)Elston Howard
55)Bob Johnson
56)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
57)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for pure "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
58)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
59)Vic Willis - A reaximantion of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
60)Red Schoendienst
61)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
62)Thurmon Munson - see below.
63)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
64)Johnny Pesky
65)Hippo Vaughn
66)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
67)Tip O'Neill - The other Canadian.
68)Rocky Colavito
69)Denny Lyons
70)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
71)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
72)Lon Warneke
73)Kiki Cuyler
74)Urban Shocker
75)Alejandro Oms
   13. Adam Schafer Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:19 PM (#2232346)
1. Carl Yastrzemski - I love catchers. I love Bench. I also love career, and Yaz has a lot of great career value. #1 and #2 are pretty well interchangeable.

2. Johnny Bench - #1 just about any other year, could easily be on this ballot. Doesn't matter to the outcome of this election, so I'm not going to beat myself up over it.

3. Charley Jones - He was a huge offensive force in the A.A. but he was also a huge offensive force in the N.L. If I did not give him credit for his blacklisted years, he'd place between Roush and Fox. So those missing years really aren't that big of an issue for me considering how good he hit. Add in credit for 2 more full seasons and 1/4 credit for another, and he's just someone I can't pass up. I believe that if he'd realized the full reprecussions of his pay dispute, that he would've taken another approach. I am certain he did not anticipate being kept out of baseball. For Curt Flood, he knew darn well what he was up against, Charley did not. I do not fault him for what he did.

4. Gavvy Cravath - A complete monster at the plate. He was definately the Babe Ruth of his time. He was consistently doing what no one else was. Huge power numbers like no one else was doing on a consistent basis.

5. Gaylord Perry - One of my all-time favorite players.

6. Edd Roush - hit for average, had a little bit of power, had speed, never struck out, a very fine hitter. I give him credit for 1930

7. Nellie Fox - Great career value, especially for a second baseman.

8. Orlando Cepeda - Had a long, consistent career.

9. Cecil Travis - Cecil gets a ton of credit for time missed to WWII.

10. Bucky Walters - Monster peak, some career...looks good to me.

11. Tony Oliva - Not necassarily GREAT, but consistently very very good.

12. Don Newcombe - credit for missed years gives Newcombe oustanding career value

13. Vern Stephens - Did some reevaluation on him and he moves up a few spots to crack the top 15.

14. Fergie Jenkins - I was quite suprised to see how low he ranked in my system.

15. Chuck Klein - just enough career value, mixed with great peak. He played in a hitters park and exploited that, and you know what, more power to him for it. It's not like everyone else on his team were putting up the same type of numbers.

Bobby Veach
Jack Quinn
Ernie Lombardi
Lefty Gomez
Johnny Pesky
Quincey Trouppe
Roger Bresnahan
Charlie Keller
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque
Hack Wilson
Hugh Duffy
Thurman Munson
Jake Beckley
Levi Meyerle
Burleigh Grimes
Carl Mays
Larry Doyle
Dobie Moore
Dizzy Dean
Frank Howard
Pete Browning
Bob Elliot
Tommy Bridges
Wally Schang
David Orr
Johnny Sain
Bob Johnson
Addie Joss
Fred Dunlap
Lave Cross
Duke Farrell
Luis Aparicio
John McGraw
Harvey Kuenn
Walker Cooper
Stu Miller
Lon Warneke
Norm Cash
Catfish Hunter
Heinie Manush
Ken Boyer
Mike Marshall
Al Rosen
Gene Tenace
Vic Willis
Herman Long
Deacon McGuire
Urban Shocker
Ed Williamson
Sam Rice
Mike Tiernan
Ginger Beaumont
Lou Brock
Jim McCormick
Tommy Bond
Dom DiMaggio
George Kell
Pie Traynor
Mickey Welch
Elston Howard
Tommy Henrich
Mickey Vernon
Ed Konetchy
Henry Larkin
Reggie Smith
Kiki Cuyler
Gus Weyhing
Jimmy Ryan
Gil Hodges
Bobby Murcer
Sparky Lyle
Eddie Cicotte
Tommy Leach
Stuffy McInnis
Lefty O'Doul
Charley Root
Jack Daubert
Buddy Lewis
Dave Bancroft
Lloyd Waner
Jack Chesbro
Herb Pennock
Vada Pinson
Wilbur Cooper
Tony Lazzeri
Luis Tiant
Tony Mullane
Roy Thomas
Jim Kaat
Denny McClain
Phil Rizzuto
Claude Passeau
Wilbur Wood
Dizzy Trout
Rabbit Maranville
Joe Wood
Sal Bando
Mel Harder
George Van Haltren
Bobby Bonds
Boog Powell
Tom York
Mike Cuellar
Jimmy Wynn
Dick Bartell
Deacon Phillippe
Freddie Fitzsimmons
Wally Berger
Lee May
Rube Marquard
Virgil Trucks
Milt Pappas
Mickey Lolich
Dave McNally
Jesse Tannehill
Johnny Vander Meer
Sad Sam Jones
Jack Powell
Bert Campaneris
Nap Rucker
Baby Doll Jacobson
Hal Schumacher
Earl Whitehill
Joe Judge
John Hiller
   14. karlmagnus Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:39 PM (#2232360)
Yaz: my favorite player when introduced to baseball in the ‘70s. Lay a place for Yaz at our family table, any time (how many HOM’ers old enough to spot THAT reference?) Surprised how less-than-overwhelming his stats are when looked at in comparison to others. Perry’s the Yaz/Beckley of pitchers, but slightly less dominant. I suppose Bench is better than Schnozz, but not by much – 1 point of OPS+ and 150 games at catcher – Bench got more games/season by playing 1b etc. Jenkins ahead of Bench but not of Joss – major plus is the career length. Kaat’s another long career, very close to Grimes but a bit better, so off bottom but may make ballot in weak year. Campaneris nowhere near a good enough hitter even as a SS. Tenace too short a career, too many part seasons, but quality very good indeed (better than Bench), so not that far off ballot. Lots of good ones this year; top 4 should all go easily HOM.

1. (N/A) Carl Yaztrzemski. Hung on long enough to depress rate stats a bit. 3419 hits@130. TB+BB/PA .528, TB+BB/Outs .809. He’s Joe Start or Jake Beckley, but slightly better than either. Hope he’s unanimous or close, for sentimental reasons.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 70 “years” ago.

3. (N/A) Gaylord Perry. Long productive career 314-265, 5350 IP @117. Surprisingly similar figures to Mickey Welch, although longer career but he had to pitch many more years to get there.

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

5. (N/A) Fergie Jenkins 284-226, 4500IP@115, OPS+23, good for his era. Main strength is his career length.

6. (N/A) Johnny Bench. Overrated, at least by those who claim he was the best ever – Hartnett’s better, Cochrane and Berra may well have been better, Lombardi not much worse. 2048 hits@126 TB+BB/PA .523 TB+BB/Outs .761.

7. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

8. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.
   15. karlmagnus Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:40 PM (#2232362)
11. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

12. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

13. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

14. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

15. (N/A-15-N/A-13-13) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey. Back on again as Stretch was elected.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-14) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation.

17. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. Back off ballot, will return.

18. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

19. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back up towards ballot in Pierce’s slot.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. Reggie Smith 2020 hits at OPS+ of 137. Extra intangibles for membership of Impossible Dream. TB”BB/PA .537, TB+BB/Outs .810. Better player than I thought at the time.

23. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

24. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
25. Ben Taylor.

26. Jim Kaat 4530IP@107. 283-237 Very good for a very long time; will make ballot in weak year. OPS+37, good for his era.

27. Orlando Cepeda
28. Norm Cash
29. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
30. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
31. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
32. Lou Brock
33. Mickey Vernon
34. Thurmon Munson
35. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
36. Sal Maglie.
37. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
38. (N/A) Heinie Manush
39. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
40. Bob Elliott
41. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
42. (N/A) Dick Lundy
43. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
44. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
45. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan

46. Gene Tenace 1060 hits@135. (about 152 when adjusted to outfielder equivalent.) TB+BB/PA .518 TB+BB/Outs .816
47. Kiki Cuyler
48. Deacon McGuire
49. Boog Powell
50. Sal Bando.
51. Jim Fregosi.
52. Jack Quinn
53. Tony Mullane
54. Pie Traynor
55. Jim McCormick
56. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
57. Joe Judge
58. Edd Roush Same quality as Beckley but less valuable defensive position and 20% shorter career. Yes, he’s good, but Beckley’s a lot better.
59. Spotswood Poles.
60. Larry Doyle
61. Curt Simmons
62. Roger Bresnahan.
63. Waite Hoyt.
64. Harry Hooper.
65. Vada Pinson
66. Gil Hodges
67. Jules Thomas.
68. Rico Carty.
69. Wilbur Cooper
70. Bruce Petway.
71. Jack Clements
72. Bill Monroe
73. Herb Pennock
74. Chief Bender
75. Ed Konetchy
76. Jesse Tannehill
77. Bobby Veach
78. Lave Cross
79. Tommy Leach.
80. Tom York

Moore hugely overrated; off my consideration set.
Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions.
   16. Mark Donelson Posted: November 06, 2006 at 08:05 PM (#2232375)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

I finally got around to my giant outfielder reassessment this time, which resulted in fewer large changes than I’d expected (I’d been worried about having applied my peakster criteria inconsistently, but for the most part I seem to have been less guilty of this than I feared). The most notable change was a huge drop for Hugh Duffy, who I think I’d been giving too much of an 1890s bonus; he goes from fairly high on-ballot to the mid-20s. Jones and Browning swapped spots, more or less. Roush moved up again, Wynn down slightly, and Brock dropped entirely out of the top 50. Still, no real wholesale changes other than the big fall for Duffy.

pHOM: Bench, Yaz, Perry

1989 ballot:

1. Johnny Bench (pHOM 1989). I’m think Berra may have been slightly better overall, but it’s so close I’m glad I don’t have to make a final judgment there. And even being in consideration for the best catcher we’ve seen not named Josh Gibson means he’s an easy #1 on the ballot, even in this loaded “year.”

2. Carl Yastrzemski (pHOM 1989). Another easy choice. While not inner-circle (and perhaps slightly overrated in people’s memories), he’s maybe sixth all-time among left-fielders we’ve seen so far, and that means he’s a (sorry) no-brainer.

3. Gaylord Perry (pHOM 1989). Probably because I began watching the game just a few years after his peak, I was surprised to discover how good it really was—I had thought of him more as a long-career candidate. There’s no question he’s the best pitcher eligible, by a good margin.

4. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m confident this guy was the real deal.

5. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

6. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

7. Fergie Jenkins. Another pitcher whose peak I just missed. It’s not quite as impressive as Perry’s, but certainly good enough to get into the HOM (and my pHOM) quickly once the three guys ahead of him are safely out of the way.

8. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.)

9. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

10. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Yet another lost cause, though he gets a bit more support than the other two. Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he presents an awfully appealing peak.

11. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

12. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years at this position are enough for me.

13. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

14. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). Surpassed recently by Freehan and Howard, but still quite worthy.

15. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluate outfielders, he does a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With even fairly conservative minor-league credit, he’s easily got the peak I look for. Just edges out Jones in the latest OF evaluation.
   17. Mark Donelson Posted: November 06, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2232380)
16-20: C. Jones (1976), Walters (1968), Fox (1986), Roush (1988), Gomez (1987)
21-25: Bresnahan (1973), J. Wynn (1987) Tiant, [Faber], F. Howard, Duffy (1930)
26-30: McGraw, [B. Williams], H. Smith, Oms, Redding (1975), Pesky
31-35: Bando, Trout, Boyer, Joss, [E. Wynn], Berger
36-40: [Reese], H. Wilson, [Lyons], Leach, McCormick, Doyle, [Minoso], Chance
41-45: Elliott, Cepeda, Munson, Burns, Marshall
46-50: J. Ryan, Rizzuto, Bobby Bonds, Easter, Veach

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Boyer. Not my favorite of the eligible 3Bs—I prefer the peak-heavier Rosen and Williamson, and even McGraw. He’s midpack, right on the borderline as far as whether he’ll end up making my pHOM or not. At #33.

•Wynn. Again, not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. Like Fox, he’s in my pHOM now, and, at #22, not too far off ballot.

•Fox. Don’t like him as much as Childs—not as much peak—but I do like him. He’s in my pHOM and quite close to my ballot, at #18.

•Beckley. I repeat: I’m an extreme peak voter. He’s not on my radar.

•Roush. Another guy whose peak doesn’t quite measure up to those of those on my ballot, but my opinion of him has risen lately. He just got into my pHOM last “year,” and he’s now risen to #19.

•Jones. Just dropped off the edge of my ballot this year, with the four new arrivals and the reassessment. He’s in my pHOM, and he’ll be back.

•Kaat. I’ve loved the combination of Kitty and Ken Singleton in the YES broadcast booth, so I’m sorry to say Kaat barely makes my consideration set. Just not remotely enough peak; he’s not close to my top 50.

•Campaneris. Again, not enough peak, and the fielding isn’t enough to get him past that. Not close to my top 50. (I agree he’s better than Aparicio, though!)

•Tenace. Hugely underrated, sure. But with so many games at 1B, it’s hard to put him above Munson, who falls in the bottom fo my top 50. They’re very close; Tenace falls just barely outside.

•Don Money. Not a real candidate; I just had to take this chance to say I remember the time that cost Don Money.
   18. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:00 PM (#2232503)
1989 ballot, our (and my) 92nd ballot

Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I had last year's electees Willie Stargell 1st and Cupid Childs 2nd (which is just where they finished).

1. JOHNNY BENCH - Had 10 seasons of 119 OPS+ or better in 400+ PA. Four of those were over 140, which is spectacular for a C. Outstanding defensive C as well, so a defensive bonus piggybacks onto a C bonus. 126 OPS+ in 8669 PA, compare to Hartnett 126 in 7297 PA or Dickey 127 in 7060 PA.
2. CARL YASTRZEMSKI - All-time great type player in 1967-68-70, excellent in 1963 and 1965, and very good in a lot of other seasons. Has attractive peak, prime, career numbers, but doesn't quite knock it out of the park in any of them compared to the immortals. Not quite as dominant as often as Bench, and has 3500 PAs at start and end of his career that are irrelevant to his case imo. Still an easy HOMer, overrated but should still be highly rated.
3. GAYLORD PERRY - Like many others, I didn't quite realize he was THIS good, partly because of the who-cares last 500-600 IP of his career. Look to the long prime of 1967-75, top 4 in IP every time and never below 116 ERA+ and three times above 140. This is a reliable horse every year, which helps his teams immensely.

4. FERGUSON JENKINS - Every bit the workhorse that Perry was, just that the highs weren't quite as high and the peak/prime/career comes up a little short. Never an ERA+ better than 143, a little surprising how consistently good he was for so long. Top 3 in NL Cy Young voting five times. I'm stumped that he isn't No. 4 on more ballots; maybe the fear of 'shiny new toy' has flipped over to the other extreme. He'll give Jim Palmer a run for the money in 1990, I guess.
5. NELLIE FOX - Four top newcomers finally stalls Nellie's ballot climb, but he remains my top backlogger for now. Clearly the best of an era, clearly underrated, and looking more and more unique to me. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends.
6. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite who maintains a recent boost for a second straight year as I reexamine which players I seriously can imagine as HOMers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I say no.
7. JAKE BECKLEY - I've noted on the Brock thread how thoroughly Beckley crushes Lou. WS is spectacularly wrong on that count, so much so that it should cause those favoring the metric to rethink it a bit, imo.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though probably not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters.
8. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
9. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back to mid-ballot status. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
10. BOB ELLIOTT - If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
11. KEN BOYER - Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys. I can't quite get him over Elliott yet, but I am mulling.
12. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot.
13. GAVY CRAVATH - I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. With proper credits, better than Keller as well.
14. THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
15. ELSTON HOWARD - Might be first time I ever voted for him. I am troubled by the combo of shortened career plus durability issues, but I've decided he deserves more offbeat credit than Charley Jones does, and it's just enough to sneak him onto the ballot. Damn shame he caught in the wrong organization; so much for 'Yankee pride' when it comes to reviewing this case.

OTHER NEWBIE
GENE TENACE - Poor man's Joe Torre, remarkably underrated in his time. Still, not quite up to the other C and C/other types. May yet get onto my ballot someday.

10 TOP RETURNEES NOT VOTING FOR (don't think I've ever had 6 before!)
JIMMY WYNN - Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and threatens to be just as wildly overrated here. I may like Reggie Smith better, and surely Johnson, Cravath, Keller and Howard were just as good or better.
DOBIE MOORE - Really seems to be palatable only for a pure-peak guy. Even at SS, I don't see how he can compete with a guy like Keller, for example, who is only in the teens for me right now.
CHARLEY JONES - Has made big leap of late, but I still don't quite see it. The suspension is an interesting mid-career turn, but lots of weird things went on in those days. I pretty much just look at what they did do, and I can't see putting Jones ahead of Johnson, Cravath, or Keller.
EDD ROUSH - The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW II. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp, and I like Reggie better even without a timeline. Hall of Very Good, lucky to be in the Hall of Fame.
HUGH DUFFY - The least likely of any of these guys to ever make my ballot. Hall of the Very Good only; WS wildly misses on Duffy, mostly via fielding it appears. Some bonus for fielding, but let's not get crazy. The Roger Maris of the 19th century.
QUINCY TROUPPE - Has a chance if I can be convinced that he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. Those types don't do anything for me. I'll be taking another look at some point, or maybe someone can throw a sales pitch on him my way.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
CHARLIE KELLER - Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get him onto my ballot. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. I don't mind bumping close guys up and in during the war, but the pct of extrapolation here so far has been too much for me. Probably No. 16 right now.
BUCKY WALTERS - Slips back off the ballot for at least one year. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin.
FRANK HOWARD - My kind of player, with an astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the innings usually just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, not sure yet.
MICKEY WELCH - The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but if the ballot ever thins it's inevitable he may reappear.
   19. OCF Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:26 AM (#2232569)
1989 Ballot. Ah, the 1988 late-season and post-season - and my then 6-year-old son noticing baseball for the first time, as a resident of Los Angeles County. It seems that these days, all you year about is that Gibson HR off Eckersley in the WS - but in truth, September and October of that year belonged to Orel Hershiser.

1. Johnny Bench (new) I agonized over this placement - I really wanted there to be more there, to make it easier. In my peak-friendly offensive system, he's about even with Dickey and distinctly behind Berra. It wouldn't be enough offense to get him considered as a 1B/LF/RF - but that's not the question. He played other positions in order to keep his bat in the lineup, which doesn't help him much. But he's also got an awful lot of games played at catcher, and according to all the evidence that I trust, he was awfully good back there. So he gets the "catcher bonus," and I'll go ahead and rate him ahead of the slam-dunk corner player.
2. Carl Yastrzemski (new) The career value is self-evident, and he does have a very good peak centered around '67-'68. One notch ahead of Stargell because of durability.
3. Gaylord Perry (new) RA+ equivalent record of 337-258. His 1972 season was a monster. I'll know for sure where it ranks among years between '68 and '85 when I get around to running Seaver, Carlton and Guidry.
4. Ferguson Jenkins (new) RA+ equivalent record of 287-213, with a good peak. Throw strikes, have something on the pitch. It's simple, if you can do it.
5. Larry Doyle (3, 2, 3, 2, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
6. Quincy Trouppe (6, 5, 4, 3, 3) More so even than most Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork. But I've been convinced for a while.
7. Orlando Cepeda (8, 6, 5, 4, 4) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I would take Cepeda over him.
8. Jimmy Wynn (9, 7, 6, 5, 5) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
9. George Van Haltren (10, 8, 7, 6, 6) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
10. Norm Cash (11, 9, 8, 7, 7) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
11. Tommy Bridges (14, 12, 9, 8, 8) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
12. Bucky Walters (12, 10, 11, 10, 9) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
13. Frank Howard (16, 14, 12, 11, 10) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
14. Ken Boyer (18, 17, 14, 13, 11) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
15. Lou Brock (-, 15, 15, 14, 12) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
16. Sal Bando (---, 15, 13) I had Bob Elliott set to move into this position, but, head-to-head, I decided I liked Bando better.
17. Bob Elliott (19, 18, 16, 16, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
18. Luis Tiant (----, 15) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value - and more reason for caution, as we try to figure out how many 70's pitchers are worthy.
19. Reggie Smith (----, 16) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
20. Jake Beckley (20, 19, 17, 17, 17) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
21. Gene Tenace (new) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)22. Dick Redding (21, 20, 18, 18, 18)
23. Luis Aparicio (22, 21, 19, 19, 19) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
24. Bobby Bonds (---, 20, 20) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
25. Hugh Duffy (23, 22, 20, 21, 21) Nothing new to say after all these years.
26. Rabbit Maranville (24, 23, 21, 22, 22) Glove and career length.
27. Mickey Vernon (25, 24, 22, 23, 23) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
28. Nellie Fox (26, 25, 23, 24, 24) Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
29. Phil Rizzuto (27, 26, 24, 25, 25) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
30. Edd Roush (29, 28, 26, 27, 27)

Moore is just outside my top 30, along with Stevens, E. Howard, and Johnson. I never did see the case for Jones and nothing's changed. I used to vote for Browning but he's been crowded off.

I need to get a better sense of Bert Campaneris's defensive value; I wouldn't rule out that he really belongs in my top 30. We need to compare him to Davy Concepcion.

Jim Kaat: RA+ equivalent record of 262-241, without that much of a peak. Not in my top 30.
   20. Juan V Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:47 AM (#2232593)
I didn´t post a prelim this "year", since I was occupied with other stuff (Football Manager...). So, I decided to put together the whole, complete ballot and post it a bit earlier than usual for me.

1989 Ballot

1) JOHNNY BENCH: Johnny might have to sit in the Bench in an All-Time team, but here he´s numero uno.

2) CARL YASTRZEMSKI: I can spell Mientkiewicz and Grudzielanek properly, but every now and then I have trouble with Yastrzemski. What does that say about me?

3) GAYLORD PERRY: Wouldn´t like to be him in the school yard...

4) QUINCY TROUPPE: Yes, I still like him. I think it would be a shame if he´s still waiting by the time bi-weekly elections end.

5) FERGIE JENKINS: Still a bit hard to figure out for me. This is the closest to an "accurate" placement on my sistem, but I can still see him a spot higher, or a couple of spots lower.

6) ALEJANDRO OMS: Even though he wasn´t affected by my outfield reevaluation, he doesn´t stand out as much because of others moving up. Still good though.

7) GAVVY CRAVATH: Yeah, there might be an OF glut in the HOM, but I can´t help but be impressed by him.

8) JIMMY RYAN: BIG winner of my newest OF look. Still can´t see why he´s so far behind GVH and Duffy.

9) KEN BOYER: Brooks Robinson with less glove and more peak. Moves down because of Ryan moving up.

10) JIMMY WYNN: Separated from Ryan...

11) CHARLEY JONES: Adjustment of AA demerit brings him down, to the point where he´s close to my corner outfield borderline (Keller, Klein, Miñoso...). Still above this group.

12) TONY LAZZERI: Comparable (if not as good as) to newest HOMer Childs.

13) BOB JOHNSON: How did he get so far behind Miñoso? Reevaluations put him ahead of...

14) LUIS TIANT: Pierce-supporters should like him, as he´s similar (but with a lesser peak). However, I wouldn´t be surprised if the HOM in/out line ended up being drawn across the small space that separates them.

15) GENE TENACE: He was another of the trickier players to rate, but I couldn´t ignore his offensive contributions relative to other catchers. I´m open to reevaluating him.

Off ballot. Within each group, players are listed alphabetically. These groups are starting to get quite big, and I´ll look into splitting them in the near future.

16-24: Jake Beckley, Roger Bresnahan, Pete Browning, Jim Fregosi (#11 in ´87!), Charlie Keller, Chuck Klein, Dobie Moore, Cannonball Dick Redding, Edd Roush
25-36: Dave Bancroft, Bobby Bonds, Larry Doyle, Hugh Duffy, Bob Elliott, Lefty Gomez, Ernie Lombardi, Johnny Pesky, George Scales, Reggie Smith, Pie Traynor, George Van Haltren
37-46: Sal Bando, Orlando Cepeda, Dizzy Dean, Nellie Fox, Frank Howard, Jim Kaat, Thurman Munson, Marvin Williams, Ned Williamson, Artie Wilson
47-55: Dick Bartell, Lou Brock, Norm Cash, Bus Clarkson, Burleigh Grimes, John McGraw, Bobby Murcer, Bucky Walter, Wilbur Wood

DISCLOSURES:

Dobie Moore, Jake Beckley, Cannonball Dick Redding: I have been supporting them as recently as ´87. Strong newbies and reevaluations have pushed them off my ballot, as of now.

Nellie Fox: How is he that much better than all the little hitting, glovemen MIFs (not Aparicio but, say, Bancroft)?

Pete Browning: Creeping close to my ballot, but I´m not convinced that his full package was better than, say, Charlie Keller´s.

Edd Roush: Looks better after re-evaluation, but I still can´t see it, probably because of the playing time issues. No extra credit for 1930, but he gets a full 1922.

Hugh Duffy: What is it with him? He´s the Luis Gonzalez of the 19th Century.

NEWBIES OUTSIDE BALLOT:

Jim Kaat: The Beckley of pitchers, but his peak was even lower.
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: November 07, 2006 at 04:49 AM (#2232761)
1989

1. Johnny Bench (new, PHoM 1989)

2. Gaylord Perry (new, PHoM 1989)

3. Dobie Moore (1-1-1, PHoM 1942)

4. Carl Yastrzemski (new, PHoM 1989)

5. Ferguson Jenkins (new)

6. Edd Roush (3-2-4, PHoM 1976)

7. Pete Browning (4-3-5, PHoM 1961)

8. Larry Doyle (5-5-7, PHoM 1975)

9. Addie Joss (6-6-9, PHoM 1967)

10. Nellie Fox (7-7-11, PHoM 1971)

11. Charley Jones (8-8-8, PHoM 1921)

12. Charlie Keller (9-9-10, PHoM 1985)

13. Reggie Smith (10-new, PHoM 1988)

14. Orlando Cepeda (11-10-13, PHoM 1987)

15. Phil Rizzuto (12-16-15)

Dropped Out

16. Gavvy Cravath (13-19-18)
(16a. Bobby Doerr [13a-16a-18a])
17. Frank Howard (14-15-16)
18. Eddie Cicotte (15-12-14)

Close

19. Ed Williamson (18-20-20, PHoM 1924)
(19a. Joe Sewell [16a-18a-23b])
20. Don Newcombe (19-28-28)

21. Dick Lundy (42-43-40)
22. Dick Redding (16-13-12, PHoM 1971
23. Elston Howard (17-18-17)
24. Tommy Bond (29-29-46, PHoM 1929)
25. Jim Wynn (43-44-41)
26. Bucky Walters (20-27-27)
27. Dizzy Dean (21-14-33)
(27a. Willie Keeler [27a-25a-25a])

Also Pretty Good

28. Alejandro Oms (28-26-26)
29. Ken Boyer (23-23-23)
30. Norm Cash (22-21-21)

Required: Beckley 39
   22. yest Posted: November 07, 2006 at 06:26 AM (#2232801)
1989 ballot
Yastrzemski, Bench, and Perry my PHOM this year

1. Yastrzemski second best red sox left fielder ever but first on my ballot (makes my pHoM this year)
2. Bench one of the most overrated defensive players ever (I like Dickey, Chochrane, Gibson, Berra, and Campy better then him)(makes my pHoM this year)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
5. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
6. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
7. Gaylord Perry most wins 3 times (makes my pHoM this year)
8. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
9. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
11. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
12. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
13. Ferg(ie)(uson) Jenkins 3192 strikeouts -997 walks
14. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
15. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
16. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
25. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
28. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
34. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
35. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
36. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
37. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
38. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
39. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
40. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
41. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
42. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Trouppe and Dobie Moore barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Ken Boyer a great candidate for the HoVG
Jimmy Wynn don’t buy the Houston logic
Charley Jones no black list points
   23. Sean Gilman Posted: November 07, 2006 at 10:06 AM (#2232856)
1989

1. Johnny Bench (-) - A pretty clear number one on a ballot with a lot of no-brainers.

2. Carl Yastrzemski (-) - WARP has him essentially even with Perry. Win Shares has him clearly ahead. I’m a-gonna side with Win Shares on this one.

3. Gaylord Perry (-) - Great career lenght, good, if a little short, peak. Just a bit better than Jenkins in all those areas.

4. Ferguson Jenkins (-) - Will have to wait til next year for my PHOM.

5. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

6. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

7. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

8. Edd Roush (7)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

9. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

10. Ken Boyer (8)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

11. Hugh Duffy (9)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. Counting players not in my PHOM, I’ve got 11 Outfielders between Duffy at #15 and Vada Pinson at #35. There really isn’t much difference between any of them. (1964)

12. George Van Haltren (10)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

13. Carl Mays (11)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

14. Alejandro Oms (12)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

15. Jimmy Wynn (13)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)
16. Bobby Bonds (14)
17. Frank Howard (15)
(Joe Gordon)
18. Nellie Fox (16)
19. Quincy Trouppe (17)
(Red Faber)
20. Bob Elliott (18)
(Red Ruffing)
21. Vada Pinson (19)
(Bob Lemon)
22. Bucky Walters (20)
23. Wally Berger (21)
(Ted Lyons)
24. Dick Redding (22)
25. Ed Williamson (23)
26. Dobie Moore (24)
27. Sal Bando (25)
28. Norm Cash (26)
29. Bobby Murcer (27)
30. Orlando Cepeda (28)
Billy Pierce
31. Vern Stephens (29)
32. Roger Bresnahan (30)
33. Lou Brock (31)
34. Dave Bancroft (32)
35. Jimmy Ryan (33)
36. Charlie Keller (34)
37. Rabbit Maranville (53)
38. Tony Lazzeri (35)
39. Phil Rizzuto (36)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
40. Gavy Cravath (37)
41. Reggie Smith (38)
42. Jake Beckley (39)
43. Bobby Veach (40)
44. Luis Tiant (41)
45. Dizzy Dean (42)
46. Roy White (43)
47. Tony Oliva (44)
48. Boog Powell (45)
49. Jim Kaat (46)
50. Jim Fregosi (47)
   24. TomH Posted: November 07, 2006 at 01:42 PM (#2232872)
the obviousnes of thi sbalot has led me to much briefer-than-nomral commentary. But if got any Qs about my placements, please ask about them over on the discussion thread.

1- Johnny Bench
2- Carl Yastrzemski
Duh, double duh, duh to infinity…..
3- Gaylord Perry
I wish MLB cracked down more on cheaters. I also wish cops ticketed people more often weaving through traffic at 80 MPH, fined them heavier and got them off the road. But in the world we live in, driving faster usually gets you there faster, and goo-ing a baseball helps you win games.
4- Ferguson Jenkins
Wait till next year, Fergy.
5- Jake Beckley (2) [8T]
6- Ken Boyer (3) [3]
7- John McGraw (5) [42]
8- Bucky Walters (6) [15]
9- George Van Haltren (7) [18]
10- Bob Johnson (8) [17]
11- Frank Chance (9) [62T]
12- Dick Redding (11) [13]
13- Charlie Keller (12) [14]
14- Louis Tiant (13) [28]
15- Burleigh Grimes (10) [24]

An avalanche of new required “disclosures” to make this ballot:
Edd Roush – league quality adjustment bumps him lower
Pete Browning – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman.
Hugh Duffy – win shares now starring in ”The Big Fish”
Charley Jones – ½ of Zach Wheat or Sam Rice. Okay, un-blacklist him, and he is ¾ of them.
Jimmy Wynn - Looks much like Smith, Bonds, & Oms.

Hint, hint- note on required disclosures: THEY ARE ALL OUTFIELDERS. How many do we want?

Newbies Kaat and Campaneris all make the top 100, for what that is worth.
Fury Gene Tenace was a unique and underappreciated talent. But not quite a HoMer.
   25. DL from MN Posted: November 07, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#2232911)
1) Johnny Bench - top MLB catcher
2) Carl Yastrzemski - Very long career, triple crown peak
3) Gaylord Perry - LOTS of players do what Perry did. Few were as blatant but he's been quoted as saying he wanted the batter believing he was loading up the ball even when he wasn't.
4) Ferguson Jenkins - fine pitching career, would have topped Stargell on last year's ballot
5) Bob Johnson - I'm not understanding why his war seasons require deep discounts when my discounts of the AA get called "timelining". I don't give him PCL credit he arguably deserves but I make up for it by giving him full credit for the war seasons.
6) Luis Tiant - Slides up as I move 1B and OF down in the ratings. Compares well to Billy Pierce
7) Norm Cash - Defensive value keeps him up high
8) Jake Beckley
9) Reggie Smith - Small Japan credit keeps him from dropping to 11th
10) Quincy Trouppe - it's more than the long career, it's the high OPS+ that goes with it
11) Tommy Bridges - by my reckoning the best WWII era pitcher available and we haven't elected many war era pitchers.
12) Virgil Trucks - deserves war credit
13) Jim Wynn - suffers with my drop of outfielders
14) Ken Boyer - Best 3B available and we're short of 3B
15) Edd Roush - Just barely makes the end of the ballot

16-20) Orlando Cepeda, Dutch Leonard, Bob Elliott, Jack Quinn, Bus Clarkson
21-25) Charlie Keller, Luke Easter, Dick Redding, Vic Willis, Dave Bancroft
26-30) Urban Shocker, Frank Howard, Bobby Bonds, Gavy Cravath, Hilton Smith
31-34) Alejandro Oms, Johnny Evers, Dizzy Trout, Ben Taylor

41) Dobie Moore - Too short of a career, I wouldn't have voted for Ernie Banks if his career had been that short
46) Gene Tenace - compare to Munson 39, Schang 50, Bresnahan 52
51) Pete Browning - WARP numbers need a discount and his WARP1 defense is wrong
53) Charley Jones - rightfully rejected v. his peers, didn't play many games which makes projecting his extra seasons risky. After projecting he still didn't play many games or seasons. I'd take him over Chuck Klein though.

I see Browning and Jones as comparable to Chuck Klein and Rocky Colavito.

64) Hugh Duffy - behind Van Haltren, Jimmy Ryan, and 61 other players
84) Jim Kaat - 19 PRAA, the lowest in my consideration set
97) Nellie Fox - the answer in the Mazeroski v. Fox debate is Dave Bancroft. Bancroft was a better hitter relative to league average, better hitter v. his position and his slick glove was at SS instead of 2B.

Bert Campaneris - somewhere around 200, I'm not keeping him in the spreadsheet
   26. SWW Posted: November 07, 2006 at 05:40 PM (#2232991)
Backlog? What backlog? I feel pretty confident about slotting the newcomers, so I'm going to set it and forget it.

<u>1989 Ballot</u>
1) Johnny Lee Bench
A strong claim as the Best at His Position Ever. A standout performer on a team full of stars. And the star of The Baseball Bunch. 16th on Sporting News Top 100. 19th on SABR Top 100. 21st on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 24th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 44th on Bill James Top 100. 43rd on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Carl Michael Yastrzemski – “Yaz”
An outstanding career, and a peak that includes the last Triple Crown. I’m also glad that he’s going to be elected, because entering his name into Evan’s ballot counter over and over is brutal. 37th on Bill James Top 100. 45th on SABR Top 100. 48th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 55th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 72nd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Gaylord Jackson Perry
The career numbers are a little dicey, given the way he hung on at the end, clawing his way towards 300. The prime is without dispute, though. 98th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 96th on Sporting News Top 100. 38th on Maury Allen Top 100.
4) Ferguson Arthur Jenkins – “Fergie”
In most years, he would be a first-ballot HOMer. I think compared to the top 3, his numbers look a little puny, but he’s definitely got career stats superior to any other pitcher on the ballot save Perry, and prime numbers competitive with the best of the rest. Hail the Great White North. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 93rd on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
The legal spitballer on my ballot. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
7) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
8) Carl William Mays
The career numbers come out the same with Luis Tiant, but Mays has better seasons and more milestones. Comes out better on ink, too. I wonder if Tiant is going to become the new Billy Pierce: a better-loved pitcher who Mays outperforms.
9) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position. I have him ahead of Bando, but I’m not sure he’s this far ahead. That deserves another look. 5 Top 10 WS seasons are nothing at which to sneeze.
10) Hugh Duffy
Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time. I dropped him a bit, though, because the peakishness of his career does not thrill me, when compared with Mays, Boyer, and Freehan.
11) Louis Clark Brock
It’s possible that WS overrate him, and players like George Van Haltren or Mickey Welch have comparable career WS and don’t appear on my ballot. However, I remain a career voter at heart, and he ranks well over the long run. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons (134 and 3, respectively) far outstrip some of the guys he’s being compared to, like Jake Beckley and Sam Rice. I’m still listening to everyone’s arguments, but I feel he’s earned a spot on my ballot. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
12) Edd J Roush
I’ve always liked his career stats, and the recent discussion of time missed helps to reinforce my earlier view that he is a worthy candidate. So many center fielders, though.
13) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Like so many of the very good Negro League stars, very difficult to get a handle on. Remains this high thanks to my support for Mays, who has strikingly similar arcs.
14) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
15) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Moving him up a notch. An impressive career considering his late start, and more of a standout on his team than Tommie Leach, who he jumps over. Of the guys who are all career and no peak, he’s the one I would induct first.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
James Sherman Wynn
I’ve got a lot of center fielders jockeying for position on my ballot. Wynn fares better than I expected, with 6 Top 10 WS finishes and a solid career. A little flat, but his similarity to the newly-ascendent Roush is helping his cause.
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
As the backlog clears out, he inches closer and closer to the ballot. He remains in my consideration set because of my tendency to favor career numbers. However, his career is so utterly peakless, his seasonal performances are so completely without contributions above the norm, I’m hard pressed to call him a great.
Walter Moore – “Dobie”
Reminds me of Hughie Jennings. I wasn’t that fond of his candidacy, either. An unfortunately short career, but a short career nonetheless.
Charles Wesley Jones
I understand his troubles with blacklisting and such. The three year gap is devastating. However, the numbers he did put up point to a rather flat career arc, and I have him behind Frank Howard and George J. Burns in left field.
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
   27. TomH Posted: November 07, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#2233007)
oops, neglected to comment on two guys: Dobie Moore (I'm more of a prime/career voter than peak/prime) and Nellie Fox (= to Aparicio, Maranville, Bancroft, & Rizzuto). Wow, when I only have 2 of the returning top backloggers on my ballot, the title "Dcotor Consensus" shall not be mine....
   28. Ardo Posted: November 07, 2006 at 06:02 PM (#2233009)
1989 Ballot

An earthquake reminds us that baseball is no more than a game.

Last year, we elected Willie Stargell (was #2) and Cupid Childs (a mistake, IMO).

1. Johnny Bench - A legendary combination of offense and defense. No catcher has matched his performance in both facets.
2. Carl Yastrzemski - Polish power in left field. He has one of the longest, most consistently productive careers ever.
3. Gaylord Perry - Quantity, quality, and deception are the three marks of a winning pitcher.
4. Charley Jones - The only glaring 19th Cent. omission; the Dick Allen of his era.
5. Ferguson Jenkins - A strike-thrower who wasn't afraid of the bat.
6. Wally Schang - His durability was excellent for his era. It's sloppy thinking to compare him head-on to Lombardi or the '70s catchers.
7. Norm Cash - One Big Year, excellent 1B defense, 139 OPS+.
8. Dick Redding - I can't decide if he's Vic Willis (not enough, IMO) or a bit better than that (and a deserving HoMer).
9. Edd Roush - A comparable and superior player to Richie Ashburn.
10. Quincy Trouppe - A similar type of player to Joe Torre.
11. Jimmy Wynn - Astrodomed out of several dominant counting-stat seasons.
12. Ken Boyer - Strong eight-year prime, but little else.
13. Thurmon Munson - Excellent offensive value for a catcher. Not far below Bill Freehan.
14. Nellie Fox - Great defense, long career, slightly more offensive value than Mazeroski.
15. Jake Beckley - Sneaks onto the tail end of my ballot.

16-20: Cepeda, Tiant, Browning, Bonds, Maranville.
21-25: Easter, Luque, Bresnahan, Bancroft, Brock.

Bert Campaneris is behind Bancroft and Rizzuto in my shortstop queue.
   29. Ardo Posted: November 07, 2006 at 06:04 PM (#2233010)
Take Bancroft out of #24 and replace him with Jim Kaat.
   30. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 07, 2006 at 07:21 PM (#2233049)
Jimmy Wynn don’t buy the Houston logic

What sport do the Logic play and how come you don't want the Toy Cannon to buy them?

;-)
   31. Jim Sp Posted: November 07, 2006 at 07:32 PM (#2233053)
Kaat #61
Campaneris #28
Tenace--nope
Roush – not really convinced yet. I suppose if I gave him every conceivable credit for holding out he’d make it, but I’m not there yet.
Beckley #50—missing a peak.
Jones #44
Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
1) Bench--on the short list of greatest catchers ever.
2) Yaz--clearly overqualified, if a little overrated.
3) Gaylord Perry--obviously qualified.
4) Jenkins--pretty clearly qualified, will have to wait a year.
5) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. I was a WS guy but here in particular I think Warp has it right—great defense. PHoM in 1970.
6) Dobie Moore--PHoM 1985.
7) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3. PHoM 1976.
8) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
9) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1987
10) KellerAdded back the war credit. PHoM 1985.
11) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. PHoM in 1970.
12) Trouppe
13) Dick Redding--PHoM 1985.
14) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987.
15) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8.
   32. OCF Posted: November 07, 2006 at 07:44 PM (#2233065)
Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM?

Since Lou Brock does have > 3000 hits (along with > 892, er 937, er 912 SB), and yet finished 27th in our 1988 vote totals, it would appear that arbitrary counting statistic thresholds don't mean all that much to us.
   33. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 07, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#2233171)
1989 ballot
I feel like my ballot is really old. Which is because it is. Not so many post-War guys who aren’t newbie no-brainers. Lots of older guys on it. We’ve taken the quality new guys so quickly that maybe it’s inevitable that I’d have mostly old dudes on it.

That could change pretty radically in the next several elections as we start to incorporate a lot of 1970s and 1980s candidates with strong resumes who are trapped behind the big debuts.


1. Johnny Bench: In our modern day, he’s in the scrum with four or five others for the title Best Catcher Ever. That group is lessened by one when Piazza is removed. Gibson, Berra, Bench, Piazza, Hartnett. That’s the group, and that’s the only guys, IMO with strong claims to the honor. Actually Hartnett’s claim is slightly more tenuous than the others’, but he’s close enough to discuss. And that group is pretty tightly bunched.

Bench is also a member, with pitcher Gary Glover, of the all-opposite-roles team.

2. Carl Y&$%#@ski: I think it’s really spelled Yaz. He and Perry are essentially the same candidate. Some really great high-peak stuff and lots of very good or slightly above-average years.

For ballot counters, yes, that’s Yastrzemski. : )

3. Gaylord Perry: He is part of starting rotation of the All-Two-First-Names Team:

C Elston Howard
1B Frank Thomas
2B Joe Morgan
3B George Brett
SS John Henry Lloyd (I guess three is like two, right?)
RF Hank Aaron
CF Jimmy Ryan
LF Fred Clarke
DH Mike Kelly
P Pete Alexander
P Gaylord Perry
P Vic Willis
P Nolan Ryan
RP Sparky Lyle
RP Mike Marshall

4. Fergie Jenkins: Very similar to Bert Blyleven with a higher absolute peak, but slightly lesser rate stats. Will surely be elected next year or the year after or the year after that. He’s on the All-Two-Last-Names Team:

C Carlton Fisk
1B Harmon Killebrew
2B Rogers Hornsby
3B Brooks Robinson (or Wade Boggs)
SS Cecil Travis
RF Fielder Jones
CF Willard Brown
LF Brady Anderson
P Warren Spahn
P Ferguson Jenkins
P Silver King
P Dean Chance
RP Hoyt Wilhelm
RP Kent Tekulve

5. Bucky Walters:
Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. He was having a great peak before WW2. I like peak in my pitchers, and he’s got it.

6. Quincy Trouppe:
Best catcher available. Too bad we can’t find more consensus on this guy. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different. See my comments in the New Eligibles thread (around #865) for more details.

7. Charley Jones:
Best left fielder available. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices all because he wanted to get paid. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

8. Wilbur Cooper:
Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

9. Larry Doyle:
I’m coming around on him. The dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

10. Hugh Duffy:
His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Wynn gang.

11. Sal Bando:
There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that
a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

12. Edd Roush:
I just don’t exactly know what to think about the third-tier CFs except that I’m finding Roush creeping upwards lately. Roush, Duffy, Ryan, Van H., Wynn. They are so friggin’ close. And my current system and my Keltner-based system don’t agree on the order in each instance. But I’m coming to rely more on the Keltner-type system and it’s support of candidates who exhibit a lot of dominance over league and position. Roush was ever so slightly more dominant than Duffy, so I’d like to give him the nod. Though, in fairness, I think that Duffy had slightly better positional peers. Roush battled Max Carey with a little Dode Paskert and Lloyd Waner tossed in too. Duffy had Ryan, VH, Hamilton, and Griffin in CF, plus some fine players at the corners when he played there. Mike W., you owe me a few favors now... ; )

13. Nellie Fox:
Yeah, this one’s surprised me too. He’s been remarkably close to my ballot for a while, but I never would have dreamed he’d have sniffed it. But the truth be told, I’ve been ignoring him a bit because I have a tendency to prefer “my kind of player” and Fox isn’t that kind of player. But truth be told, he’s the second-best 2B on the ballot, and he’s not very far behind Cupid, and he’s among the top 15 2Bs we’ve seen so far. Those are excellent credentials. He also exhibits good positional dominance and was a many-time All-Star type player. He wouldn’t be the HOM’s best player, but he’s a very good selection.

14. Pete Browning:
Fabulous hitter. True he benefited from weak competition in the early AA, but also true that he hit great in the PL and early 90s NL. I’m comfortable that he was a sufficiently good enough hitter to have a ballot spot near the other CFs.

15. Tommy Leach:
Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.


NEW GUYS
Ken Singleton: I’m a big fan, but he’s not quite making my ballot. Great peak, prime, best in his league for a decent spell, plenty of All-Star type seaons and MVP-level play. Is probably better than at least a quarter of the HOF’s RFs.

Jim Kaat: Which Scandanavian country were his folks from? The Fins have lots of double-vowel strings, like I bet Sarloos is Finnish. But a la Saab, sometimes the Swedes and Norwiggians can turn that double-play too. Kaat and Tiant are pretty darned close to one another, and I don’t like either of them. Long and low ain’t my bag.

Gene Tenace: Very, very close to electable. Tantilizingly close. Time out from behind the plate does diminish his value a bit, and he doesn’t have Joe Torre or even Tralee’s career length to pump things up. A guy who, with Munson, could easily be a fine tail-ender for the catchers as a group, but who will be easily shunted aside by the Fisk/Carter/Simmons trio coming someday soon to an election near you.

Bert Campaneris: Better than Aparicio, which only says that he was a better hitter than one of the worst hitters in the Hall of Fame. Dave Concepcion is a nice NL analog in Campy’s own time. Joe Morgan would have loved him.

RETURNING TOP TENS

Dobie Moore:
I really like Dobie Moore. The current thinking shows him as a super valuable player. But I don’t yet see enough to push him up into my electable area. I’m inclined to give him more credit during the Wreckers years than he’s getting because he truly hit the ground running in 1920. I suspect he was better than a rising talent on the Wreckers, that he had left 3B quite early in the Wreckers’ era, and that quite possibly he was quickly the team’s top player as a hard-hitting shortstop. Too bad I can’t prove it.

Boyer:
I had him 15 two weeks ago, I backed off again this week just a bit. He’s not far at all from my ballot, but I have reservations about him. I see the Brooks’ prime v. Ken’s prime argument as probably true, but he also wasn’t the best 3B of his era in his league. Yet he had stiffer competition than either Brooks or Bando. But he was also never able to bubble up to the best very often in part because he rarely put together MVP-type seasons…only one that my WS-centric world sees. Furthermore, as you all know, I don’t really trust WARP’s fielding stuff so much, so I’m hard-pressed to accept him as a glove-first third baseman with hitting.

Wynn:
Wynn never dominated his league like the cluster of 1890s CF did, and that’s pretty much the difference. And they played in a very strongly concentrated league too. Like with Stargell, I don’t have any great opposition to his probable election, but I don’t feel compelled to vote for him either.

Beckley:
No matter how much I tried to argue against him, I kept screwing up the argument. Well, that’s life, and sometimes life is frustrating. Nonetheless, neither my interval-based system or my newer keltner-based system sees strong reasons for him to join the HOM. To his credit, he’s a frequent all-star (at a weak position for his era), and he’s rather frequently the best player at his position over three-year groups of seasons. But in fact the new system also never sees him as the league’s best player in any three-year block, never sees any MVP-type seasons, and sees any team with him reasonably described as its best position player winning the pennant under 5% of the time. Yuck.
   34. Mark Donelson Posted: November 07, 2006 at 10:54 PM (#2233189)
I thought Singleton wasn't eligible till next time around? (Not that it matters, since you didn't vote for him...)
   35. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 08, 2006 at 12:53 AM (#2233257)
You're right! I'm sorry everyone.
   36. EricC Posted: November 08, 2006 at 01:44 AM (#2233269)
1989 ballot.

7 newcomers in top 20. #5 all-time ML catcher (Berra, Dickey, Fisk, Piazza, Bench) trumps #4 all-time ML LF (Bonds, Williams, Henderson, Yastrzemski), possibly in part because I give an effective catcher bonus that moves them higher than conventional sabermetric rating systems. G. Perry introduces the steady, very long career pitchers of the 1970s. It looks like I'll be adding Blylevan and Tommy John to the list of those who are HoFers, with Kaat (#19 this year) very near the borderline, even though I take into account that inning totals were so high in the 70s. Jenkins is another long career pitcher, who is more of a run-of-the-mill PHoM pitcher. Tenace makes my top 15 because of my catcher bonus and by being a consistent, high secondary average, run producer. I may have Campaneris (#18) higher than anybody else. Stolen bases, speed, and defense give him more value than is apparent in his OPS+.

1. Johnny Bench

2. Carl Yastrzemski

3. Gaylord Perry

4. Wally Schang Generally all-star level of play at C 1913-1920; one of better catchers for most of long career afterwards; career leader in WS among C upon retirement.

5. Fergie Jenkins

6. Charlie Keller Consistent all-star to MVP level of play at corner OF 1939-1947, with a peak that looks as high and more sustained to me than Kiner's did. Believe that his peak would have been maintained during WWII and thus give war credit.

7. Nellie Fox Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to some peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s IF, helps to boost his chance of eventual election.

8. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats". I feel that Cepeda, in particular, deserves a careful look, especially when 60s NL strength is taken into account.

9. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

10. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

11. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF.

12. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

13. Gene Tenace

14. Jimmy Wynn Multiple years of all-star quality CF play. Sabermetric poster child- 0.250 BA, but played a defensive position, had a 0.400ish secondary average, and played in a pitcher's era.

15. Sol White Star-quality middle-infielder, mainly 2B, with long career late 1880s to mid 1900s. Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to know how accurate this rating is.

16-20 Bresnahan, F. Howard, Campaneris, Kaat, Dutch Leonard

Top 10 returnees Boyer, Jones, and Beckley, were all very good players who have been on my ballot in the past. Among NeLers, I would prefer Lundy to Moore. Edd Roush played in a weak league at a time when there were a lot of great CF. Pete Browning is to the HoM in some ways what Hack Wilson is to the HoF: some shiny numbers that were as much a product of the times as of greatness; a player from an overrepresented era with a lot of negatives. Charley Jones, Beckley, Duffy, and Jimmy Van Haltren, among others, would all be better 19th C. choices.
   37. Chris Cobb Posted: November 08, 2006 at 01:50 AM (#2233271)
1989 Ballot

Not a lot of drama about the (Hall of Merit) election this year. This is the strongest class we’ve seen in a long time!

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments.

Since 1987, I have been more swayed in my subjective adjustments than I have in the past by issues of positional balance. That has become a second tie-breaking factor, along with peak talent, in arranging the candidates whom my system sees as just about equal. So I have brought more infielders on to my ballot.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Johnny Bench (n/e). % = 1.5394. Best major-league catcher of all time, in my view, though the difference between him and Berra is not really significant.
2. Carl Yastrzemski (n/e) % = 1.4532. Discussion has made a convincing case that Yaz played in about the most favorable environment possible for his particular skill-set, which marks him down somewhat, but, given that Perry’s numbers are substance-assisted, I’m not prepared to rank Perry ahead of Yaz, and no one else is close. Around the middle of the top 100 players of all time as of 1989.
3. Gaylord Perry (n/e). % = 1.3627. My system sees Perry as in a near statistical dead-heat with Steve Carlton for the #2 spot among 1970s pitchers after Tom Seaver. I give the nod to Carlton, but Perry was really great. My baseball memories start in about 1975, so I only saw Perry during his decline, whereas I remember Carlton when he was regarded as the best pitcher in the National League.
4. Ferguson Jenkins (n/e). % = 1.1917. He draws the short straw in 1989. He’s much better than the backlog, but not as good as the Big Three, who are all top 100 players. Jenkins is not, but he is top 150. He was similar in style, it appears, to Robin Roberts, but a little behind Roberts in both durability and effectiveness.
5. Quincy Trouppe (2). % = 1.0453. Discussion of the anecdotal record solidifies Trouppe’s case for me. I think he is disadvantaged in NeL lore because he was not slick behind the plate. The comment cited from one former NeL player that Trouppe was a great athlete who could have played other positions, but he was only an ok catcher strongly suggests that the oral history underrates Trouppe for the same reason it has overrated players like Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
6. Edd Roush (3). % = 1.0667. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me.
7. Charlie Keller (4). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
8. Dave Bancroft (5). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
9. Alejandro Oms (6) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
10. Tommy Leach (7). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time.
11. Jimmy Wynn (9). % = 1.0386. I was overrating him a bit, not sure why.
12. Jake Beckley (10). % = 1.0250. Gradually rising as the backlog clears.
13. Rabbit Maranville (11) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study suggests I was overvaluing him, but he still has a strong career argument.
14. Luis Tiant (12). % = 1.0229. Best pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Much better than Hunter and Lolich. I wouldn’t elect him now, but I think he should join the upper backlog.
15. Ken Boyer (13). % = 1.00. Ranks ahead of Norm Cash among 1960s borderliners on league-strength considerations. Positional considerations move him ahead of Bus Clarkson and Charley Jones.


1988 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Bus Clarkson (14). % = 1.00. Pushed off ballot by the strong entering class.
17. Charley Jones (15). % = 1.00. Likewise.
18. Bobby Bonds (16) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak. Has an argument to rank higher, but with half of my ballot occupied by outfielders, I decided to be a touch conservative with Bonds to start.
19. Norm Cash. (17) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Boyer and Bonds on league-strength considerations.
20. Gavvy Cravath (18). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked.
21. Joe Tinker (19). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
22. Nellie Fox (20). % = 1.00. I support his eventual election, but I see him as the very weakest “should elect” infielder now eligible. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Boyer and Childs have to offer, and they just barely make my ballot.
23. Herman Long (21). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts.
24. Bob Johnson (22). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
25. Dom Dimaggio (23). % = 1.00. Likewise
26. Jimmy Ryan (24). % = 1.00. Likewise
27. Dick Redding (25). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

28. Reggie Smith .9923
29. Bill Monroe .9922
30. Don Newcombe .9886
31. Urban Shocker .9867
32. Jim Kaat (n/e). My system sees him as a dead ringer, overall, for Burleigh Grimes. Grimes was a real workhorse in a way that Kaat was not, but Grimes was also BAD in a lot of seasons during his prime in a way that Kaat was not. Their careers are similar. Grimes has the better (non-consecutive) peak, and Kaat has the better (consecutive) prime. It evens out, and leaves both of them just below HoM quality overall.
33. Burleigh Grimes .9845
34. George Burns .9879
35. Willie Davis .9896
36. Mike Griffin .9791
37. Johnny Evers .9779
38. Fielder Jones .9778
39. Lave Cross .9709
40. Hugh Duffy .9686
41. Johnny Pesky .9676
42. Ben Taylor .9667
43. Cy Seymour .9665
44. Dick Bartell .9653
45. George Van Haltren .9538
46. Larry Doyle .9614
47. Bobby Veach .9609
48. Buzz Arlett .9602
49. Vada Pinson .9599
50. Leroy Matlock .9544
51. Tommy Bond .9511


Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #22 above

Dobie Moore. % = .9293 He misses my ballot, and my top 50, because I don’t find his peak to be so outstanding that it counterbalances his lack of career.

Charley Jones. See #17 above.

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito.

Hugh Duffy. See #40 above. Excellent defense, but not good enough a hitter (except for his one fluke season) and not an especially long career. Among the remaining 1890s outfielders, Jimmy Ryan is much more deserving.

New Arrivals worthy of note.

Gene Tenace. % = .9179. Better than he is usually given credit for. I have him slightly behind Munson among 1970s catchers and slightly ahead of Bando among the 1970s A’s.

Bert Campeneris. % = .8656. A legitimate all star during his peak, his peak wasn’t quite high enough, nor his career long enough, to get him into serious contention, unless perhaps you buy WARP3. The best AL shortstop between Fregosi’s peak and Yount’s debut. He trails Bando but tops Hunter among the 1970s A’s.
   38. Evan Posted: November 08, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#2233411)
A little tip for the ballot counters (in response to SWW's comment) - on the Ballot sheet, you can put anything you want in for a player (like "Yaz" or even just a "Y" or anything else for Mr. Yastrzemski. Then, on the names sheet, put in the guy's real name next to whatever code you've used. If you want to code the players on the ballot as A, B, C, D, whatever, you can.

Hope this helps!
   39. rico vanian Posted: November 08, 2006 at 05:24 PM (#2233428)
Welcome back to America, home of the red, white & BLUE

1) Johnny Bench- Inner Circle Greatness, however…Gibson and Berra were better. And so is Piazza.
2) Carl Yastrzemski – Hate voting for anyone from the Red Sox, but an awesome peak and career.
3) Fergie Jenkins- Another guy with a great peak and career.
4) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
5) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
6) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
7) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
8) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
9) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
10) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
11) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
13) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.
14) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
15) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.

no soup for...
16) Ken Boyer - MVP. 7 all star games.
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) Edd Roush – I like Rice better, but I am coming around on Roush.
19) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
20) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
21) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
22) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
23) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
24) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
25) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
26) Jim Kaat- I am comfortable with him in this position. Career length enabled him to put up some interesting numbers, but I don’t think he’s good enough for the HOM (or the HOF for that matter).
27) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
28) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
29) Reggie Smith &
30) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons...
31) Quincy Trouppe- Not sold on him. Certainly isn't one of the ten catchers (up to 1988)

Gaylord Perry merits no consideration this year as he is under a one year suspension for being a proven and admitted cheater.
Charlie Jones is in the 40’s at best
   40. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 08, 2006 at 05:46 PM (#2233435)
1989 ballot

Bench, Yaz, and Perry make my PHOM this year with Jenkins next in line and Cravath, Dean, and Rosen following him.

1. Johnny Bench (x, PHOM) – The only catcher that I would rank over him is Gibson, though Berra has a good argument as well. Easy #1, even with this class.

2. Carl Yasztremski (x, PHOM) – Probably a little overrated as he played in the perfect environment. Still, he has a very nice peak and good career length as well. Would have been #1 in most years.

3. Gaylord Perry (x, PHOM) – Has a good argument for being #2 this year but I chose Yaz instead. Great 1972 that somehow was not the best pitching season that year!

4. Charlie Keller (1, PHOM) – Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey). If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

5. Ferguson Jenkins (x) – Very similar to Marichal/Bunning/Drysdale. Definitely a HOMer who is only held out of my PHOM because he became eligible with the best group of newbies we have had since 1934.

6. Hugh Duffy (3, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections.

7. Dick Redding (4, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

8. Dobie Moore (5, PHOM) – I had him slightly higher until new numbers showed that he was more Ernie Banks without the decline phase than Hughie Jennings. Still, that is worthy of the HOM.

9. Bucky Walters (7, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

10. Jimmy Wynn (8, PHOM) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 25. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome. I wonder how he would have looked in an era where a lower replacement level meant great players had more great seasons.

11. Quincey Trouppe (10, PHOM) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Mackey was.

12. Elston Howard (11, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

13. Ken Boyer (12, PHOM) – Very good defensive 3Bman. I will admit that he is receiving a sort of 3B bonus, but if I did not give these out there would be very, very, very few 3B in the HOM and I can’t justify that. Not much better than Elliot (#29) or Rosen (#17), but he was better.

14. Pete Browning (9, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

15. Gavvy Cravath (13) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

16-20 Dean, Rosen, Oms, GVH, Bresnahan
21-25 Fox, Berger, F. Howard, Doyle, McGraw
26-30 Willis, Shocker, Roush, Newcombe, Rizzuto
31-35 Bando, Elliot, Tiant, Cepeda, Kaat
36-40 Burns, Chance, C.Jones, Munson, Tenace
41-45 Veach, Lundy, Wilson, Bancroft, R. Thomas
46-50 Monroe, Leach, Ryan, Klein, Stephens

Required Disclosures:
Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet, but his current spot (#21) is about as high as he has been. In the same boat as Pierce when it comes to my PHOM. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat.

Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

Roush – Good player, but I think not playing full seasons for whatever reason really hurts his peak. Better than Carey, Bell, and Minoso, however.

C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

Newbies:

Tenace – Very similar to Munson, better hitter, not as good a fielder. Tenace’s counting stats are inflated a little by his playing 1B when he wasn’t catching. This gave him more value in season but also means that he does not get an in season catcher bonus. As I write this I wonder if that is fair.

Jim Kaat – I have him as better than Grimes and Ruffing but not as good as Rixey and Wynn. I don’t really think he is HOM worthy and I may even have him too high at the moment.
   41. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 08, 2006 at 05:48 PM (#2233436)
Hey Rico, on my screen there is a giant gray line that is covering up your #4 guy. Is this happening with anyone else? If so, maybe you should repost your #4 only.
   42. Juan V Posted: November 08, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#2233442)
It happens sometimes with me, but it dissapears once I scroll.
   43. karlmagnus Posted: November 08, 2006 at 06:10 PM (#2233451)
Mark S. Beckley can only be never in the top 10 if you use WS, which gets 1890s fielding wrong as well as its other defects. He was 3rd in OPS+ in the 1890PL, 6th in runs created in the 1900NL, 4th in runs created in the 1902NL and 2nd in the 1904NL. Given that he played a modestly premium defensive position quite well, I can't see how he's not among the top 10 players in baseball for those 4 years. There are also arguments for 1891 and 1893. I agree, it would be nice if he had an average HOM-quality peak, but he was among the top players for many years, and in the top 10 in several. I would argue that his 1900 season was artificially suppressed by the compression of quality in a single 8-team league, and might well have looked HOM-quality in a normal year.
   44. rico vanian Posted: November 08, 2006 at 07:15 PM (#2233475)
4) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
   45. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 08, 2006 at 09:13 PM (#2233540)
Karl,

We have been over this many times before and I have had that comment posted for almost a decade now. That said, you can say that Beckley played a premium defensive positin all you want but saying a lot of times does not make it true.
   46. Mike Webber Posted: November 08, 2006 at 11:10 PM (#2233602)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) JOHNNY BENCH – I put him above Yaz because he’s in the top three in at his position, and Yaz is “only” 5th. Plus Bench is at a key defensive position, if Bench were a 1b or RF or something their positional rank wouldn’t be as important.
2) CARL YASTREMSKI – Other guys ranked 5th at their position in the new BJHA, Pete Rose, Joe DiMaggio, Ernie Banks, Frank Baker, Biggio/Lajoie, Murray, Piazza. Where does Yaz rank in that group? Top 2, with Rose.
3) GAYLORD PERRY – Excellent pitcher, tough competition.
4) FERGIE JENKINS – Perry is better, but Jenkins is well qualified.
5) EDD ROUSH –Why I think Edd is better than Wynn. More career win shares, with out any schedule adjustment. Played his whole career in center field, while Wynn spent 1/3 of his career elsewhere while Ron Davis and Roland Office played center. Significant lead in both black and gray ink – both played in generally poor hitters parks.
Thanks to everyone that gave serious thought to his holdout situation, even those who decided it didn’t merit additional credit. The open mindedness in this group is astounding.
6) JIMMY WYNN – Why I think Jimmy Wynn is better than Edd. PRO+ is slightly higher. Played in a tougher environment, especially when you add in the Federal League. While both played in poor hitters parks, Wynn’s style was more adversely affected by the Astrodome than Redland/Crosley Field hurt singles hitting Roush.
7) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
8) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
9) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
10) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
11) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
12) SAL BANDO - I have had Boyer fairly high on my ballot and I think Bando is better. I’ve lowered Boyer and slotted Bando ahead of him
13) KEN BOYER
14) LOU BROCK – As a career voter I’ll put him here. 348 wins shares, his loss shares are the piece of the puzzle we don’t have.
15) CARL MAYS Durability, big seasons are why my system rates him ahead of Pierce


Disclosures:
Jake Beckley – excellent career, not enough peak to pass Cepeda in my rankings.

Dobie Moore and Charley Jones – same argument, great players in suspect leagues, who need all kinds of extra credit. Am I wrong to suppose the people at the beginning of this project evaluated Charley Jones compared to his peers and rejected him?

Pete Browning – a pennant may be a pennant, but Browning never sniffed one. As a rookie he played on a 2nd place team 13 games out, once he played for a 3rd place team 7 games out, and that was as close as he ever got. He was born a century too soon, he could have been Travis Hafner. Weak league, shoddy fielding reputation, short career…

Newbies – Jim Kaat, not enough career to outweigh his lack of peak.

Campy – in the group with Bancroft, Maranville, and Aparicio – the excellent fielder, long career, no big peak.

Gene Tenace – A valuable player, but is he a top 25 CATCHER? He had only had six season where he played more than 70 games at catcher – and wouldn’t you bet his innings were about 6.0 per game? – Tenace is a catcher, but would you really count on him to be you catcher if you had to? Only once in the A’s long run could you call Tenace their regular catcher. Of course he played in the only era since 1920 when a poor defensive catcher couldn’t get by back there.
   47. Rick A. Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:13 AM (#2233655)
Nice discussion of Charley Jones this week.

Please excuse my lack of comments this week. I've been fighting a nasty cold, and don't feel up to typing more.

PHOM Bench, Yaz, Perry
1. Bench
2. Yaz
3. Perry
4. Jones
5. Moore
6. Browning
7. Jenkins
8. Willis
9. Redding
10. Williamson
11. Duffy
12. Grimes
13. Roush
14. Walters
15. Oms

Boyer - Can't see the difference between Boyer, Bando and Elliott
Wynn - Just misses
Fox - Low 30's
Beckley - No peak

Tenace - Below Munson
Campaneris - Not close to ballot
Kaat - not close to ballot
   48. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 09, 2006 at 03:02 AM (#2233671)
Please excuse my lack of comments this week. I've been fighting a nasty cold, and don't feel up to typing more.

I would argue that Jones at #4, but Keller and Cravath off-ballot pretty much demands an explanation...
   49. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 09, 2006 at 08:19 AM (#2233727)
PHOM - Yaz, Bench, and Perry

1. Carl Yastrzemski
2. Johnny Bench
3. Gaylord Perry
4. Fergie Jenkins

Nice batch of newcomers. Long careers, great peaks. Big gap between these guys and #5.

5. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

6. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

7. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

8. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

9. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

10. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

11. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

12. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

13. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

14. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

15. Bobby Bonds - 130 OPS+. 461 SB, 332 HR, 5 30/30 seasons.

16. Vada Pinson
17. Norm Cash
18. Hugh Duffy
19. Edd Roush
20. Bob Elliott
21. Tommy Leach
22. Harry Hooper
23. Luis Tiant
24. George Van Haltren
25. Alejandro Oms
26. Buzz Arlett
27. Orlando Cepeda
28. Gil Hodges
29. Burleigh Grimes
30. Reggie Smith
31. Willie Davis
32. Fielder Jones
33. Dick Redding
34. Pie Traynor
35. Jim Kaat

Moore, Browning, Jones - Great peaks, but not enough career value.
   50. Max Parkinson Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:16 PM (#2233752)
'Zop,

Rick's been around for a long time, so I'd rather cut him some slack. If there was any question regarding any of those three being elected, then maybe, but it's really a moot point this year.
   51. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 09, 2006 at 03:46 PM (#2233813)
Two quick notes on my ballot.

A gentleman named Dave emailed me to note that I'd forgotten an important player on my Two-First-Name Team...George Ruth. Props to Dave! To be honest, it hadn't even crossed my mind to look for a cross-gendered name!

Also, a few years ago we talked about player-name strings like this one that's my peronal favorite: Fred McGriffey Jr.

In noting Hoyt Wilhelm's name, I remembered that he's in a couple of them. Waite Hoyt Wilhelm, or Lamarr Hoyt Wilhelm, Chuck Lamarr Hoyt Wilhelm, or best yet, Ken Kaiser Wilhelm (The Third?).

If you're a Blazing Saddles fan, Heady Lamarr Hoyt Wilhelm.

It's Hedley!
   52. DavidFoss Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2233844)
Silver King Kelly Gruber!
   53. DavidFoss Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:17 PM (#2233850)
Tommy John Curtis King Kelly Heath Murray Wall!

*whew*
   54. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:36 PM (#2233859)
If you're a Blazing Saddles fan, Heady Lamarr Hoyt Wilhelm.

Funny, but Hedy Lamarr was born today. Weird, wild stuff!
   55. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 09, 2006 at 07:24 PM (#2233994)
Also born today Whitey Herzog. Happy White Rat Day, OCF!
   56. andrew siegel Posted: November 09, 2006 at 08:35 PM (#2234059)
Cutting and pasting my ballot, with new comments only on the newbies and Cravath (who drops a bit):

(1)Bench (new)--Either the 2nd or 3rd best catcher of all-time; all-time top 35 player.

(2)Yaz (new)--Somewhere around 60th All-Time.

(3)Perry (new)--Has peak, prime, and career. Top 100 All-Time.

(4)Jenkins (new)--Fully qualified. Somewhere around 125 All-Time.

(5) Keller (1st)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). Except the new guys, he only player on the ballot who played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner, Berger, and Chance only reached for 4 or 5.

(6) Roush (3rd)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except the newbies and the third basemen. A star in his own time.

(7) Bob Johnson (5th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(8) Cash (6th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(9) Bridges (7th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(10) Leach (8th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM.

(11) Trouppe (9th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's.

(12) Cravath (4th)--Not quite the offensive force that Keller or Allen was, but consistently close to that level. Kiner with a longer produtive career or Charley Jones w/o the competition problems. CLOSER EXAMINATION IN COMPARISON TO SIMILAR CANDIDATES THIS WEEK SUGGESTS THAT HE IS CLOSER TO JONES OR BROWNING THAN I WOULD HAVE GUESSED.

(13) Wynn (10th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers.

(14) Boyer (11th)--Did it all well for just long enough. Somewhere around the #17 3B of All-Time.

(15) Elliot (12th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.


There are arguments for Fox; I just like others better (he's in the low 30's). Beckley is #19 and will make my ballot again soon. I once had Dobie Moore 1st on my ballot, but now have him around 50th. The difference is that I had originally projected a historic peak for him, but the latest numbers don't support it.

Browning has durability, fielding, and competition issues. When I take appropriate account of all three, I have him somewhere around Frank Howard, in the late 20's or 30's.

I have had Jones on my ballot before and currently have him 23rd. He wouldn't be a bad pick, but--like Ralph Kiner--is one or two big-big seasons short of being a PHoMer.
   57. Rick A. Posted: November 10, 2006 at 03:00 AM (#2234264)
'Zop,

Rick's been around for a long time, so I'd rather cut him some slack. If there was any question regarding any of those three being elected, then maybe, but it's really a moot point this year.


Max,
Thanks for the support.

While I've always been a pretty big fan of Charley Jones, I also like both Keller and Cravath too. Both are in my top 20, as well as in my PHOM.
   58. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 10, 2006 at 04:04 AM (#2234287)
Tommy John Curtis King Kelly Heath Murray Wall!


This guy's real first name was Murray, so one could extend the string out a little further:

Murray Franklin Pearce Chiles

-- MWE
   59. DanG Posted: November 10, 2006 at 04:47 AM (#2234315)
My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #8 were elected. One of the best classes ever enters in 1989 with Bench, Yaz, Perry, Jenkins, Kaat, Tenace and Campaneris. In 1990 we’ll elect Morgan and Palmer, while Singleton and Otis enter the backlog. Carew is the n-b in 1991; Staub, Oliver and Fingers will generate discussion. A banner year in 1992 elects Seaver and Rose(?), and crowds the backlog with Grich, Perez, Cedeno, Harrah and Foster.

1) Johnny Bench – The greatest white catcher in history.

2) Carl Yastrzemski – Owes his extreme longevity to the DH rule. That, plus weak AL, slot him behind Bench, around #60 all-time.

3) Gaylord Perry – The most durable pitcher of his era. Last man to pitch 300 CG, ever. Pitchers with 2700+ IP, ten year span, since 1959:

3089 1966-75 G. Perry
2926 1971-80 P. Niekro
2914 1967-76 F. Jenkins
2837 1959-68 D. Drysdale
2805 1962-71 J. Marichal
2796 1971-80 S. Carlton
2773 1967-76 C. Hunter
2770 1969-78 J. Palmer
2746 1965-74 M. Lolich
2733 1963-72 B. Gibson
2728 1968-77 T. Seaver

4) Fergie Jenkins – Fits solidly into the upper middle tier of the Hall.

5) George Van Haltren (2,1,2) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1982 to 1988, he went from the #8 unelected player to #16. Hanging in the top 20 candidates, but two more guys passed him last election; we’ve now elected 11 players who were behind him in 1970. Why? Now in his 81st year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

6) Edd Roush (3,2,3) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. Tied with Beckley last election, the first time Eagle Eye failed to beat him. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

7) Tommy Leach (4,4,4) – Cracked the top twenty in voting for the first time since 1949. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

8) Jake Beckley (5,5,6) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

9) Burleigh Grimes (6,6,7) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


10) Charlie Keller (7,7,9) – Kiner’s election should cinch his. Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with OPS within .090 of CK’s, 1938-51, minimum 4500 PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize
5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine

11) Roger Bresnahan (9,8,8) – A couple more voters now (11) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

12) Ken Boyer (11,14,15) – Evidence that he deserves a year or so for war credit moves him up. His adjusted WS go to ~305.

13) Jimmy Ryan (10,10,10) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. To those 12 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

14) Rabbit Maranville (13,15,--) – Third time on ballot. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

15) Wally Schang (12,12,12) – My other Lost Cause, along with Ryan. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

Vernon and Fox slip right back to off ballot.

Top tenners off ballot:

Wynn is a bit short on career, but definitely on my radar.

Moore used to get my vote, but I’m not so sure his peak was really Jennings-esque,
so he’s slipped a bit.

Browning and Jones are lagging among the 19th century OF candidates; nice peaks in very weak leagues. Also, I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing a couple more bats from that era.
   60. yest Posted: November 10, 2006 at 04:50 AM (#2234319)
Bench one of the most overrated defensive players ever
Sure, he didn't have enough putouts. Certainly no Harvey Kuenn with the glove.

I never said that or implied that Bench is thought of by many as the best fielding catcher ever and based on his stats and watching his play I don't think he was though he did deserve many of those gold gloves just not 10

Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM?

Since Lou Brock does have > 3000 hits (along with > 892, er 937, er 912 SB), and yet finished 27th in our 1988 vote totals, it would appear that arbitrary counting statistic thresholds don't mean all that much to us.


like almost everyone else I'm guilty of reposting old comments even when they make no sense
   61. yest Posted: November 10, 2006 at 05:39 AM (#2234383)
I never said that or implied that. Bench is thought of by many as the best fielding catcher ever and based on his stats and watching his play I don't think he was. though he did deserve many of those gold gloves just not 10.
the impotance of punctuation
   62. OCF Posted: November 10, 2006 at 05:44 AM (#2234388)
the impotance of punctuation

I've GOT to find a context somwhere where that would make sense. It's just too good a phrase.
   63. Rob_Wood Posted: November 10, 2006 at 05:53 AM (#2234396)
1989 ballot from this highly career voter:

1. Carl Yastrzemski - great career value; occasional all-time great
2. Johnny Bench - one of the best catchers of all time (less career value)
3. Gaylord Perry - not one of my favorites, but very large career value
4. Fergie Jenkins - another newbie & one of my favorites
5. Jake Beckley - luv the career
6. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
7. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
8. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career (where's the luv?)
9. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
10. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop
11. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
12. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
13. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
14. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
15. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
---
16-21. Aparicio, RSmith, Traynor, Klein, Keller, CJones

Not voting for Browning (around 50th).
Interesting mix of newbies, but no others close to ballot.
   64. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 10, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#2234517)
Dan,

I know that the charts you use are mostly for fun but I would like to say that I look at that beckley chart and it says to me that Beckley is nto really a HOM candidate. I wouldnt' rank him 1st in that group based on that evidence andif I did it would be so close that he would't really be a great candidate. Funny how two people who disagree can look at the same information and see it as evidence that they are right and the other is wrong.
   65. jhwinfrey Posted: November 10, 2006 at 05:24 PM (#2234577)
1989 Ballot
1. Carl Yastrzemski: 452 HR and 168 SB.
2. Johnny Bench: When's the last time a catcher led the league in intentional walks? Bench did it in 1972.
3. Gaylord Perry: 8 seasons with 200+ Ks. Never led the league, but he's 8th all-time in strikeouts.
4. Burleigh Grimes: #5 on my ballot the last time I voted, in the 1950 election. He joined my PHOM in 1940.
5. Ferguson Jenkins: 6 straight 20-win seasons, and 6 straight winning years for the Cubs. That's an ace.
6. Orlando Cepeda: 222 HR and 92 SB in his first seven seasons.
7. Jake Beckley: Beckley was #2 on my ballot in 1950. He joined my PHOM in 1926.
8. Charley Jones: An OPS+ of 150 or higher in 7 of his 10 full major league seasons.
9. Dick Redding: #12 on my ballot in 1950.
10. Edd Roush: 10 straight seasons with an OPS of 800 or higher
11. Quincy Trouppe: 2nd best catcher on the ballot, and much closer to Bench than to Bresnahan.
12. Pete Browning: An OPS+ of 150 or higher in 9 of his 12 full major league seasons.
13. Nellie Fox: Never struck out more than 18 times in a season. Ranks 4th all-time in AB/K. And he had a 964 OPS in the '59 Series.
14. Reggie Smith: Had an 800 OPS in 11 of 12 seasons from 1969-1980.
15. Alejandro Oms: A great Cuban player who probably merits induction.

Next in line:
16. Jim Kaat
17. Bucky Walters
18. Tommy Leach: I had him at #11 the last time I voted.
19. Hugh Duffy
20. Carl Mays

Intentional Omissions:
23. Ken Boyer: Just a positional bonus for 3B gives him the edge over Wynn.
25. Jimmy Wynn: A long, solid career, just not peaky or dominant enough to merit induction.
27. Dobie Moore: With a longer career, he'd be one of the greats.
47. Charlie Keller: I don't see him as a dominant player, and even with extra-season credit, he's not close to my ballot.
   66. SWW Posted: November 10, 2006 at 05:43 PM (#2234584)
4. Burleigh Grimes: #5 on my ballot the last time I voted, in the 1950 election. He joined my PHOM in 1940.


Sweet mother of pearl. I may not be Ol' Stubblebeard's best friend this year. I can't remember the last time that was true.

I'm not even sure what to do with myself.

Welcome back, jh.
   67. DL from MN Posted: November 10, 2006 at 07:23 PM (#2234654)
> When's the last time a catcher led the league in intentional walks?

Mauer was 4 away in 3rd place this year.
   68. DavidFoss Posted: November 10, 2006 at 07:57 PM (#2234690)
When's the last time a catcher led the league in intentional walks? Bench did it in 1972

Bench wasn't the only catcher to do it in 1972. The immortal Ed Hermann and his .359 SLG also did it that year. I thought perhaps this was due to him batting 8th, but all of Hermann's IBB's were in the 6 or 7 slot that year. Both Bench & Hermann had 18 IBB as C's that year. Freehan (1967) is the only other catcher to lead the league (at least in the bb-ref documented years).
   69. DCW3 Posted: November 10, 2006 at 09:30 PM (#2234792)
When's the last time a catcher led the league in intentional walks?

Ted Simmons led the league in IBBs in 1976 and 1977.
   70. Chris Fluit Posted: November 10, 2006 at 11:27 PM (#2234945)
1. Johnny Bench, C (n/e). According to the way I rank players, Bench came in behind the other big new eligibles. But Bench is definitely one of the top three all-time at his position and has a case for number one. You can't say the same thing about Yaz, Perry or Jenkins. So I'm doing a Jamesian data dump and putting Bench first overall.

2. Carl Yastrzemski, LF (n/e). Beats Beckley, Brock and Rice for the best career numbers of any batter on the board. Can go toe-to-toe with peak candidates like Cravath, Keller and Klein. That's a no-doubt-about-it kind of double dip.

3. Gaylord Perry, P (n/e). He's a lot better than I expected. He even has a longer prime than Yaz. However, he trails Yaz in both peak and career so he ends up third for this ballot. Could've easily been a number one in most other elections.

4. Fergie Jenkins, P (n/e). Just one step behind Perry in every category (peak, prime and career). But that's still good enough to put him well ahead of the backlog.

5. Dick Redding, P (1). PHOM- 1975. His winning percentage is .100 points better than his team's. He broke the 300 innings pitched barrier more often than Coveleski, Faber or Rixey. And if not for time missed due to military service in World War I (Redding missed the bulk of the 1918 and 1919 seasons), we'd be looking at someone with MLEs of greater than 250 wins.

6. Quincy Trouppe, C (2). PHOM-1977. A great-hitting catcher with patience and power who was able to lead his team to several pennants and a 1947 Negro League Championship. Plus, he was picked for 5 Negro League All-Star teams despite spending his best years south of the border.

7. Nellie Fox, 2B (3). PHOM- 1976. One of the major reasons why we elected Joe Sewell was his great at bats per strikeout ratio. Well, that's a pretty good reason to vote for Nellie Fox, too. He has the fourth best career mark- which may not be quite as good as Sewell- but Nellie led his league in that category more times than Joe, 12 to 9 including 11 straight from 1954 to 1964 for Fox.

8. Lou Brock, LF (6). PHOM- 1985. Among the best career candidates on the ballot, Brock used his speed to accumulate 486 doubles and 141 triples (leading the league in each category once) as well as those notorious 938 stolen bases.

9. Alejandro Oms, CF (5). PHOM- 1984. A very underrated outfielder who was among the best in the Negro Leagues in the 1920s and was still good enough to be a league-leader his native Cuban leagues through much of the '30s. Dropped him behind Brock for this ballot; although he has the better peak, it's hard to extrapolate as lengthy a prime or as full a career as that of Brock.

10. Burleigh Grimes, P (7). PHOM- 1984. I don't have the personal attachment to Grimes that I do to most of the other players on the ballot. But with the second best career totals for a pitcher and the peak that Welch is missing, I find no fault with his numbers.

11. Don Newcombe, P (8). PHOM- 1987. Military credit gives Newcombe seven outstanding seasons from 1949-1953 and 1955-1956, more peak seasons than any other pitcher on the ballot. And a few seasons of Negro League/minor league credit give him enough of a career to warrant consideration

12. Luis Aparicio, SS (9). PHOM- 1987. He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He won five straight Gold Gloves from 1958-1962 and then another 4 in alternating years from 1964-1970. Plus, like Joe Sewell, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from 1958 to 1973 and leading the league his league twice in 1969 and 1973.

13. Hugh Duffy, CF (10). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

14. Ken Boyer, 3B (11). The best third baseman on the ballot and too close to Santo to be kept out of the HOM for much longer.

15. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (12). I had cooled a bit on Cepeda and he dropped a couple of spots on my last ballot. However, overall, he jumped from 27th to 19th so I guess I had him moving in the wrong direction. Oh well. He drops again but that's only because of the strong class of newly eligible candidates.

Dropped out: Hilton Smith, Ernie Lombardi and Dobie Moore.

Necessary Disclosures on New Eligibles and Top 10 Returnees:
Jim Kaat: He's slotted in right behind Tiant, who didn't make last year's ballot either.
Bert Campaneris: Better than I thought- and better than Wills whom I've touted but have yet to vote for- but I can't see putting him ahead of Aparicio or Moore.
Gene Tenace: Just not enough there, especially for only a part-time catcher.
Jimmy Wynn: Not good enough for not long enough.
Dobie Moore: I voted for him in the last election but he got bumped off the ballot thanks to the strong class of "rookies."
Charley Jones: I don't give Jones any credit for his time on the blacklist. Even if I did, he'd still be just off-ballot in the neighborhood of Bob Johnson and Chuck Klein.
Jake Beckley: I had him 16th last time, which means he drops to 19th this time around.
Pete Browning and Edd Roush: They're both top five center fielders as far as I'm concerned, which is good enough to be in the top 35 but not good enough to make the ballot. Oms, Duffy (who are both on-ballot) and Vada Pinson (who is not) are the other three.
Wow, six top ten returnees not on my ballot. How did I not finish near the bottom in consensus scores?
   71. OCF Posted: November 10, 2006 at 11:37 PM (#2234955)
Wow, six top ten returnees not on my ballot. How did I not finish near the bottom in consensus scores?

Because the ones you're leaving off are from the lower part of the returning top ten, and the one's you're including in their place are mostly from not very far below that. OK, you do take a little bit of a flier on Newcombe and Aparicio - but overall, you'll probably be slightly above consensus average this year.
   72. DavidFoss Posted: November 10, 2006 at 11:49 PM (#2234972)
Ted Simmons led the league in IBBs in 1976 and 1977.

Whoops... missed him. Thanks for catching this

...caught the pun while typing... but I'll leave it in :-)
   73. jimd Posted: November 11, 2006 at 01:51 AM (#2235060)
Ballot for 1989 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) J. BENCH -- ! Prime 1968-1979. Best player candidate in 1970, 1972, 1974. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974; WARP adds 1975 and 1976. Other star seasons include 1968, 1971, 1973, 1977, 1978, and 1979.

2) F. JENKINS -- ! Davis & Dahlen, redux. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate in 1971, WARP adds 1974. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1967, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1974. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, and 1978. Honorable mention in 1975 and 1979.

3) G. PERRY -- ! Prefer Jenkins peak/prime, but not by much. Prime 1966-1976. Best player candidate in 1972, WARP adds 1974. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1972, 1973, 1974; WARP adds 1970. Other star seasons include 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1975, and 1976.

4) C. YASTRZEMSKI -- Yaz sir, that's my baby. But not on this ballot. Prime 1962-1975. Best player by WS 1967, 1968, 1970. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1967, 1968, 1970; WS adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1966, 1969, and 1977, plus 1973 and 1974 at 1B. Honorable mention in 1962, 1965, 1971, 1972, 1975(1B), and 1964(CF).

5) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

6) B. WALTERS -- He moved up considerably in my pitcher reevaluation. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

7) J. WYNN -- Scored much higher than I thought he would; excellent prime. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

8) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

9) J. KAAT -- Belongs. Ruffing/Rixey/Griffith kind of career; less consistent though. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't try to tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1968, 1974, 1975. HM in 1961, 1969, 1971.

10) B. BONDS -- Scored much higher than I thought he would. Very nice prime; marginal on career and peak. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

12) P. TRAYNOR -- Reassessing IF in general also. Traynor and Bancroft were major beneficiaries. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

13) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

14) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

15) D. BANCROFT -- See Traynor. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

16) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he was ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

17) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

18) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

19) D. MOORE -- Just missed; pushed off by Tiant, and deeper by the class of 1989.

20) R. SCHALK -- Excellent defensive catcher; best in MLB 5 times by both WARP and WS. Prime 1913-22. 1st team MLB All-Star (C) 1917; WARP adds 1916. Other star seasons include 1913, 1914, 1919, 1920, and 1922.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Thurman Munson, Dizzy Trout,
23-24) Roger Bresnahan, Nellie Fox,
25-26) Wilbur Wood, Norm Cash,
27-28) Dick Redding, Dizzy Dean,
29-30) Quincy Trouppe, Edd Roush,
31-32) Jake Beckley, Jim McCormick,
33-34) Hugh Duffy, Charley Jones,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are also giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.
   74. dan b Posted: November 11, 2006 at 05:37 AM (#2235133)
Since I can’t drive or operate heavy machinery while waiting for the anesthesia to wear off after a minor surgical procedure, a chance to expand/re-think my ballot. Hopefully the anesthesia isn’t clouding my judgment to the point of having my ballot rejected. Maybe I should re-read and post tomorrow (please, no wise cracks from Beckley supporters.)

PHoM 1989 – Bench, Yaz, Perry

1. Bench Inner circle
2. Yastrzemski If only he had played 2B like his rookie card said, what a rotisserie player he would have been, (had there only been rotisserie baseball when his career began.) My first experience in fantasy baseball was during the spring of 1966, a group of fellow HS seniors and I would spend our study hall time drafting players we thought would get the most hits that day. Tony Oliva was usually the first pick. We learned the game from a teacher who was lamenting losing to someone who had drafted Andre Rodgers and was rewarded with a 4 for 4 performance.
3. Perry Easy #1 most years. A career candidate with enough peak.
4. Keller PHoM 1967. 1989 re-evaluation moves him ahead of Duffy in my backlog. Now giving him 20 WS for 1938, 32 WS for 1944 and 1945. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation. Happy Veterans Day.
5. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
6. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
7. Jenkins Wrong year to debut.
8. Roush PHoM 1942. Better than Ashburn
9. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak. My Dad’s old Bucky Walters model glove is prominently displayed next to the Andres Galarraga foul ball I caught at Three Rivers Stadium. Dad’s favorite player was Elbie Fletcher who led the Pirates in WS in 1941 and 1942.
10. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
11. Wynn, J PHoM 1986. NHBA #10 CF.
12. Boyer, K PHoM 1987. More deserving than Sewell, NHBA #12.
13. Fox, N PHoM 1987.If Maz could hit like Nellie, the 1960 WS hero would have been elected by now.
14. Bando Close to Boyer, James has him ahead and may be right. Expect he will be a PhoMer.
15. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds, but ….
16. Bonds, Bo … Barry’s dad was pretty good.
17. Cravath PHoM 1967. Am I allowed to vote for him again? ;]
18. Leach d.o. PHoM 1926.
19. Howard, E
20. Munson
21. Cooper, W PHoM 1942.
22. Burns, G. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median.
23. Cepeda
24. Tiant
25. Berger
26. Browning PHoM 1912.
27. Cash, N
28. Rizzuto Could move up.
29. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
30. Mays, C
31. Doyle PHoM 1930.
32. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
33. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots, Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
34. Grimes
35. Ryan
36. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much support than Jimmy Ryan?
37. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles and Dobie Moore.
38. Elliott
39. Brock not enough peak to be higher
40. Pinson
41. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
42. Moore - I like high peak, short career pitchers, but need more career from hitters. If Moore, why not Rosen?
43. Rosen If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
44. Arlett
45. Traynor
46. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
47. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
48. Mazeroski As John Lennon once said, and “The Hidden Game of Baseball” and the HOF veterans committee apparently agreed “…Glove is all you need, glove is all you need.”
49. Newcombe If one of Newk’s supporters will tell me how much NeL credit to give him, he could move up. I am giving him (2) 20 WS seasons of military service credit to get him this high.
50. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s

Way off ballot:

Trouppe – (2nd p added) not enough there to see, i.e. my imagination is too limited to see the support. I do have him ahead of Beckley.

Even further off ballot:

Beckley – If Beckley was the best player on his team; a 100-loss season would be FAR MORE LIKELY than a pennant contender. I would definitely rank below Bobby Murcer, Tip O’Neill, and possibly even Happy Jack Chesbro (with his 53 WS 1-year peak) and Elbie Fletcher (maybe a smiley face is in order, maybe not – the 1941 Fletcher-led Bucs played winning baseball.)
   75. Howie Menckel Posted: November 11, 2006 at 06:43 AM (#2235147)
damn, dan b beat me to it with the pre-emptive strike against his ballot!

Still, I can't help but noting that any system that gives ZERO credit for a 13th-best OPS+ season of 122 - and perhaps half the electorate qualifies there - is subject to query under any conditions.
If the "Joe Blow had no peak" voters were hit with a barrage of "Joe Schmo only was any good for a few years" retorts, they'd roll their eyes just as much.

I loved Kiner and I vote Beckley pretty high, liked Waddell and like Grimes/liked Wynn-Rixey - if your value system can only capture one type of fish, it's probably time to find a new net.
Which doesn't mean you have to catch Beckley, either - but it helps to find a variety.
   76. Howie Menckel Posted: November 11, 2006 at 06:45 AM (#2235148)
jimd, what AA seasons would you compare to UA 1884?
   77. mulder & scully Posted: November 11, 2006 at 08:08 AM (#2235169)
Truncated version. For long version, check last year. I cut and pasted so here we go.

PHOM: 1989: Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Gaylord Perry
1. Johnny Bench (PHOM 1989): Third best catcher of all-time when he retired. First catcher to be best player in league by win shares: 1970
Top 15 player in 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975.
Rank in league/majors: 8th t/14th t, 1st/2nd t, 2nd/3rd, 12th t/18th t, 3rd/3rd, 3rd/8th t,
Best catcher in league in 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1975. In majors in: 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974.

2. Carl Yastrzemski (PHOM 1989): 4 times best player in his league and 3 times best in majors.
Top 12 / 15 player in league (61-68/69-83): 1963, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1977.
Rank in league/majors: 1st t/8th t, 1st/1st, 1st/1st, 10th t/26th t, 1st/1st, 12th t/25th t, 7th t/23rd t, 14th t/25th t.
Top 3 outfielder in league in: 1963, 1967, 1968. In majors: 1967, 1968.
Best first baseman in legaue in: 1970, 1974 t. In majors: 1970.

3. Gaylord Perry (PHOM 1989):
Top 5 or 6 pitcher in league (up to 68/69 and after): 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1974.
Rank in league/majors: 5th t/ 6th t, 4th/6th, 1st/2nd, 5th t/6th t, 1st/1st, (8th in 1964, 6th t in 1966, 6th t in 1967, 6th t in 1968, 8th t in 1976, 9th t in 1978, 10th t in 1979)
Best in league: 1972, 1974, In majors: 1974

4. Ferguson Jenkins:
Top 5 or 6 pitcher in league (up to 68/69 and after): 1967, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 3rd t/4th t, 2nd/5th, 2nd/3rd, 1st/1st, 4th/10th, 4th/5th, 6th/9th, (tied for 8th in 1969)
Best in league: 1971, In majors: 1971

5. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): The weight of the evidence.

6. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906): The weight of the evidence.

7. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921): Hitter.

8. Charlie Keller (PHOM 1957): MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit.

9. Quincy Troupe (PHOM 1960): A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value.

10. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919): A key member of the best team of the 1890s.

11. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958): Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

12. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966): Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions.

13. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979): Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times.

14. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942): Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League.

15. Dobie Moore (PHOM 1967): Banks before Banks.

16. Jimmy Wynn (PHOM 1984): 4 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors.

17. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.

18. Roush (PHOM 1940): PHOM for years. 3 MVP type years, excellent defense.

19. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964): Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.

20. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985): Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig.

21: Cooper, Wilbur (PHOM 1985): He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways

22: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961): Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.

23. Don Newcombe: Credit for minor league years and Korea.

24. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987):

25. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987):

26. Jack Fournier:

27. Frank Howard:

28. Luke Easter:

29. Herman Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians.

30. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years.

31. Al Rosen: What if...

32. Orlando Cepeda:

33. Vern Stephens:

34. Elston Howard:

35. Sal Bando:

36. Dizzy Dean:

37. Wally Berger:

38. John McGraw:

39. Norm Cash:

40. Nellie Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
Top 10 in league in 1952, 1954, 1955, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960 (11th in 1951, 1953): .
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/24th t, 8th t/14th t, 5th/14th t, 3rd/6th, 10th t/17th t, 1st t/5th t, 9th t/22nd t,
Best 2b in league in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1960. In majors in 1955, 1957, 1959, 1960 t.

41. Wally Schang:

42. Bob Elliott:

43. Jack Stivetts:

44. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939):

45. Mike Tiernan:

46. Luis Tiant:

47. Sal Maglie:

48. Carl Mays:

49. Monroe, Bill:

50. George Scales:

51. Hippo Vaughn:

52. Thurman Munson:

53. Gene Tenace:
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/18th t, 13th t/31st t, 2nd/5th, 10th t/20th t, 14th t/28th t, (19th in 1976, 1978)
Best catcher in league in 1975 (2nd in league in 1977 and 1979). In majors in 1975.
Best first baseman in league in (2nd in 1973). In majors in

54. Lon Warneke:

55. Ken Boyer: Next third baseman after Lyons and Williamson. Scratch that. Reviewed his record and moved into the top 50, almost.
Top 10 in league in 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/14th t, 8th/17th t, 4th/5th t, 7th/14th t, 9th t/16th t. (12th in 1956, 17th t in 1962, 1963)
Best 3rd baseman in never (see Eddie Mathews, Dick Allen, Ron Santo). In majors in see previous. Late catch, a tie with Mathews in 1958.

56. Bus Clarkson:

57. Urban Shocker:

58. Fielder Jones:

59. Denny Lyons:

60. Ed Williamson:

Jim Kaat: Around 90th.

Bert Campaneris: Significantly below Beckley

Jake Beckley: Around 130th.
Everybody knows my reasons.
   78. Brent Posted: November 11, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#2235229)
1989 Ballot:

1. Johnny Bench – I have him ranked fourth among all catchers to date behind Gibson, Berra, and Campanella. It’s interesting that the three best position players with careers centered in the 1970s all played for Cincinnati from 1972-78. Yet they also needed help from Perez, Concepcion, Griffey Sr., and Foster to become the Big Red Machine. First quartile of the HoM. (PHoM 1989)

2. Gaylord Perry – Over 13 seasons (1964, 66-70, 72-76, 78-79) he averaged 18-13, 2.7 wins above team, 289 IP, 125 DERA+, 197 SO, 73 BB. CYA for 1972 and ’78, runner up for 1970. Second quartile of the HoM. (PHoM 1989)

3. Carl Yastrzemski – You can’t blame the Red Sox World Series woes on him – in 17 post-season games he hit .369/.447/.600 with 11 RBI/15 R. Among his contemporary outfielders/first basemen, only Mays, Aaron, and Robinson rank higher. Second quartile of the HoM. (PHoM 1989)

4. Ferguson Jenkins – Knowing that Jenkins had never made it to the post-season, I was surprised to learn that his teams were generally pretty good. In 13 of his 19 seasons, his teams had winning records; the Cubs even won in 6 of his 10 seasons in the Windy City. Over 13 seasons (1967-74, 76-78, 80, 82) he averaged 18-13, 2.3 wins above team, 269 IP, 124 DERA+, 196 SO, 55 BB. CYA for 1971, runner up for 1974. When elected, he’ll be in the third quartile of the HoM.

5. Phil Rizzuto – Great defense; hit well for a shortstop; ages 25-27 in military service. (PHoM 1967)

6. Hugh Duffy – Great defensive outfielder; good hitter; 5 pennants. (PHoM 1931)

7. Bobby Bonds – (PHoM 1987)
8. Jimmy Wynn – (PHoM 1985)
9. Alejandro Oms – (PHoM 1967)
Multi-tool outfielders who could help you with both offense and defense. I’m not a fan of one-dimensional players.

10. Dobie Moore – Among the short career, high peak candidates, I think his is the best case. (PHoM 1986)

11. Nellie Fox – Contributed with both the glove and the bat over a fairly long career. 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. (PHoM 1979)

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 121 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

13. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

14. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

15. Sal Bando – See my comparison of Bando and Childs. Edges Boyer. (PHoM 1987)

Near misses:

16–20. Cravath (PHoM 1976), E Howard (PHoM 1977), Redding (PHoM 1976), Boyer (PHoM 1975), Grimes (PHoM 1940)
21–25. Bresnahan, Keller, F Howard, Newcombe, Cepeda
26–30. R Smith, Leach (PHoM 1932), Brock, Van Haltren, Arlett

Other consensus top 10:

Ken Boyer - # 19. I have Bando slightly ahead.

Charley Jones –
Edd Roush –
I like both of these players. Long ago, Jones used to make my ballot. I don’t think Roush ever actually made it onto my ballot, but he may have been as high as # 16. However, both have slipped over time because there now are comparable players eligible who are clearly better choices. For example, I’m convinced that Cravath was better than Roush, and I have Cravath ranked # 16. It’s also clear to me that Oms was better than his contemporary, Roush.

Jake Beckley –
Pete Browning –
I don't think that either of these players would be good choices for the HoM. Beckley’s not any better than a number of players who don’t get any support—players like Vernon, Pinson, and Willie Davis. Browning has lots of problems – poor fielder, weak leagues, short career, and trouble staying in the lineup.

Other new arrivals:

Jim Kaat # 83
Gene Tenace # 97
Bert Campaneris – didn’t make my top 100.
   79. Brent Posted: November 11, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#2235234)
Correction - that linke should have said "Cravath was better than Jones," since those are the two players I was comparing. (FWIW, I also think that Cravath was better than Roush.)
   80. Jeff M Posted: November 11, 2006 at 05:15 PM (#2235252)
1989 Ballot

1. Bench, Johnny -- Should have been an easy call to put the all-time best catcher here, but there actually isn’t much of a margin b/w #1 and #3 on my ballot.

2. Perry, Gaylord – By the time I saw him play he was a fat old man. I certainly didn’t see him during those Cleveland years. Must have had a helluva pitching coach in Cleveland. Nudges Jenkins in several ways that in the long run are essentially meaningless; but we gotta rank ‘em somehow.

3. Jenkins, Ferguson – Played on some bad teams with some bad uniforms (although I guess no worse than Perry on the uniform score). Beats Perry on park-adjusted grey ink, but Perry’s longevity as an innings-eater makes the difference.

4. Yastrzemski, Carl – One of the four had to wait til next year, and for me that’s Carl. He had a few very strong years, but there’s a lack of consistency in his greatness. The back half of his career was basically a Boston fave just hangin’ on, which explains most of those all-star appearances. A HoMer, but not on the first ballot.

5. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

6. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

7. Browning, Pete – He proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project. How is it that Browning and Jones are only on 1/3 of the ballots?

8. Lyle, Sparky –I looked at the Adjusted Runs Prevented stats on Baseball Prospectus, and discovered that Lyle was a fantastic run preventer, in addition to his saves, and notwithstanding his ERA. Tough on me too, because I hated Lyle when I was a kid. (Also ironic that I loved Reggie Smith, but can't even keep him in my HoM consideration set).

9. Roush, Edd -- 300+ WS; 100+ WARP1; normalized .322/.368/.444; good grey ink; and an above average defender in the outfield.

10. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhits the average hitter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

11. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust, but he still fares well overall. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position in the outfield, I rank him higher than Williams.

12. Dean, Dizzy -- Hard to get this high a ballot position with only five or so seasons, but Dean is the exception.

13. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years.

14. Moore, Dobie – I think he is a notch below HoM level, but would have been a shoo-in with a few more years.

15. Long, Herman – From the dustbin, a 300+ aWS & 130+ aWARP1 shortstop.

Required Disclosure(s):

Boyer, Ken – Has been on my ballot but slid off with reevaluations of a few more candidates from the backlog.

Wynn, Jimmy – Barely in my consideration set. Can’t give him much credit for being a centerfielder because he probably shouldn’t have been there. He seems like a candidate only for extreme peak voters, and even then it seems a stretch to consider him as a truly great player, even as a backlogger.

Fox, Nellie – Been on and off the ballot. He’s pretty much tied with Boyer.

Beckley, Jake – Tied with Heinie Zimmerman, so that ought to tell you something.
   81. Jeff M Posted: November 11, 2006 at 05:42 PM (#2235270)
I have to say that I can see no way in which [Jones] is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

I don't see how Wynn could come out ahead of Jones, unless you aren't adjusting Jones' numbers for season-length. Even then Jones is working with a 149 OPS+ (great) and Wynn is working with a 125 OPS+ (so-so, for an outfielder), and those numbers are park-adjusted. Do similar adjustments to all of their stats and all their measures, and Jones beats him handily on park-adjusted grey ink and virtually every other measure except HR, BB and career WS.

And, Wynn's comparables using Sim Scores don't get much better when you park adjust. You get Cey, Gant, Joe Gordon, Jack Clark, Murcer, Bobby Bonds, Lance Parrish, Sievers, Bando and Powell. For Jones, you get Browning, Joe Jackson, Buck Ewing, Earle Combs, Freddy Lindstrom, Cal McVey, Mickey Cochrane and Bill Terry. Sim Scores only mean so much, but that's a big difference.

That's WITHOUT giving Jones credit for blacklisted seasons.
   82. Thane of Bagarth Posted: November 12, 2006 at 05:20 PM (#2235782)
1989 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.


1) Carl Yastrzemski
Surprisingly (to me at least), he’s only a hair better than Perry in my system. All-time among hitters, I’ve got him between Eddie Mathews and Jimmie Foxx.

2) Gaylord Perry
Of the coming waves of excellent pitchers that will be eligible between this election and the class of 2000, the only guy I have higher than Gaylord is Tom Seaver. By the way, as one of the first eligible players that I can remember being aware of as a kid growing up in the ‘80s, Perry was one of my least favorite players—though not for any rational reason that I can recall.

3) Johnny Bench
Highest ranking post-integration catcher, but, even with the catcher bonus, Bench doesn’t crack my top 2 this year.

4) Fergie Jenkins
This is a tough ballot to debut on. Fergie will be higher than Palmer on my ballot next year.

5) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

6) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

7) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

8) Dick Redding
2nd best deadball NeL pitcher behind Smokey Joe. I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers.

9) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

10) Quincy Trouppe
2nd best available among those who primarily played catcher, Black or White. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

11) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5. Balancing the two lands George right in the middle of my ballot.

12) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone, I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous.

13) Ken Boyer
50.5 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is around what I would guess the average HoMer gets. Plus 99.4 WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

14) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

15) Jimmy Ryan
As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part I).

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Gavy Cravath
17) Dizzy Trout
18) Dobie Moore—I rank him as significantly better than Hughie Jennings, but not exactly a shoe-in for future enshrinement.
19) Charlie Keller
20) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it.
21) Sam Rice
22) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections.
23) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
24) Tommy Leach
25) Rabbit Maranville
26) Norm Cash
27) Jim Kaat
28) Reggie Smith
29) Buzz Arlett
30) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind Keller, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
31) Burleigh Grimes
32) Jack Quinn
33) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
34) Bob Elliot
35) Harry Hooper
36) Vada Pinson
37) Phil Rizzuto
38) Alejandro Oms
39) Hugh Duffy—I don't see him as a real stand-out among eligible OFs.
40) Orlando Cepeda
41) Bus Clarkson
42) Lou Brock
43) Vern Stephens
44) Dom DiMaggio
45) Spot Poles
46) Gil Hodges
47) Cy Seymour
48) Fielder Jones
49) Johnny Pesky
50) George Burns

Notable Newcomers:
52) Bert Campaneris
87) Gene Tenace

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 50:
Pete Browning: He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him somewhere just over #100, in Hack Wilson territory.
   83. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 12, 2006 at 07:10 PM (#2235841)
Jeff,

1. Wynn played CF at a time when CF was a much harder position than it was in the 1880's when Jones played there.

2. Wynn played CF for more years than Jones did

3. I have Wynn as best at his position more times than Jones

4. Wynn played at a time when the standard deviations on stats like OPS+ and WS were not as high, so his peak will not be too high.

5. I am not convinced that straight linear sdjustments are right for 80 games seasons.

6. I only give Jones one year at 28 WS for the blacklisting.

7. I have Wynn has having more top level seasons than Jones

With these points in mind it becomes clear to me that Jones wasn't as good as Wynn. It is certainly not obvious. And I don't really use OPS+ as I think it has so many flaws.
   84. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 12, 2006 at 07:11 PM (#2235842)
Oh, and I forgot that the end of Jones prime was in the clearly weaker league
   85. Daryn Posted: November 12, 2006 at 10:18 PM (#2235967)
1. Bench -- I have a big gap between 1 and 2.
2. Yaz -- number 1 in most years.
3. Perry -- number 1 in many years.

4. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed put him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people in the history of the world with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

5. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

6. Jenkins -- I don't see him as much better than Grimes (John and Kaat aren't too far off either). Canadian, eh?

7. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. He hasn't been this low for me in 50 years.

8. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

10. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

11. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

Six pitchers in my top-11 -- I'm the anti-consensus.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

12. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is a benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

13. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent/achievement isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

14. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Roush, Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot. Maybe he should be 30 places lower too -- but I just don't know who to put above him.

15. George Van Haltren, of – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

16. Jimmy Ryan, of – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

17. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.

18. Pie Traynor, 3b -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

19. Ken Boyer – nice glove – pretty indistinguishable from Gordon, Sewell and Leach.

20. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

21. Dobie Moore
22. Kitty Kaat -- I'm trying not to double count his hitting and fielding, but the latter was historically great.
23. Aparicio -- those 1000 extra outs separate him from Fox, as does the poorer defence.
24. Dizzy Dean

Wynn is not close for me, Jones is even further off. I was going to say I thought Jones would be the worst mistake we ever made -- but I spent part of this week reading everything here on the site about him and I have changed my mind about that -- I can see the argument for him, it just doesn't compel me. Roush, like Duffy, could easily be 15th on this ballot. Instead, he is in the 30s.
   86. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: November 12, 2006 at 11:07 PM (#2235989)
1989 Ballot

1. Johnny Bench - An all-time great. Top 3 ever at his position.
2. Gaylord Perry - I like him a bit better than Yaz. Shouldn't matter much.
3. Carl Yastrzemski - Good left fielder. Could have done without the extended farewell tour portion of his career.
4. Fergie Jenkins - A no-brainer #1 most years.
5. Dobie Moore - What can I say, I'm sold. Ernie Banks without the 1b years? Good enough for me.
6. Pete Browning - Big beneficiary this time around. I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen.
7. Ken Boyer - Brooks Robinson-lite, but with a peak.
8. Charlie Keller - Poor man's Kiner. Close with war credit, but Kiner's huge peak was real.
9. Thurman Munson - I'm warming up to the idea that he was very similar to Freehan.
10. Hugh Duffy - Moves down, as he doesn't have much other than that 1894 - I like Browning better after looking closer.
11. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? An egregious oversight on my part.
12. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player.
13. Frank Howard - Now comes the fun part. As a peak guy (even though I count career as well, I lean peak), I couldn't rationalize him so low, especially behind Beckley.
14. Norm Cash - Raw numbers better than Howard, but Cash was platooned.
15. Chuck Klein - Similar to Howard, but how much of it was the Baker Bowl?

16-20 Beckley, Taylor, Tiant, GVH, Roy White

Returnees
Roush - Played in a weak league and is discounted accordingly.

Newbies
Kaat - In the mid-50's. No peak.
Campaneris - In the 60's
Tenace - Somewhere between Kaat and Campaneris.
   87. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 13, 2006 at 03:16 AM (#2236139)
1) J. Bench-Greatest catcher peak?

2) C. Yaztremski- Not helped nearly as much by Fenway as I thought. May not be in the inner circle, but he gets to visit on weekends.

3) C. Keller-A monster hitter. The notion that he shouldn't receive war credit because he might have injured his back soon is a little cockeyed, as military service isn't exactly like sipping margaritas on the beach at Cabo. Wish we knew how much his home park helped him, but he falls just out of the range of Retrosheet.

4) D. Dean-Best pitcher alive for 3 years. Bad "peripherals", but monster run prevention + monster durability is a rare and valuble thing.

5) Fergie Jenkins- Very good, but not quite as good at his peak as Dean

6) G. Cravath-Massive minor league credit. I can't see the argument against his induction; say, hypothetically, that Hideki Matsui had come over from Japan at age 31 and hit, not as well as he already hit (All-Star), but even better, like Pujolsian numbers. That's Cravath. How is he not an HOMer?

7) A. Rosen-Peak needs no commentary. I understand why a career guy cant vote for him, but he had arguably the best 3B season of all-time, and it was no fluke.

8)E. Roush-I see him as better than Duffy, and also better than the CF's from the overrrepresented 1930's. He'd have to be really mediocre defensively not to be a 10 win player in his best seasons; I think he was better than that. I see him as similar to, but better than, Bernie Williams. Much better than Charley Jones.

9) E. Howard- So obviously a special case. Blocked, moved, token-ed by the Yankees. Dominant at his position when he finally got a chance to play, though peak is diluted by 1961 expansion. Not very often we have candidates who were the best at a key position both defensively and offensively; such candidates deserve special consideration.

10) T. Munson- He's really much better than he appears because his peak comes in pre-renovation Yankee Stadium. I'm not inclined to give out intangible points, but if any position gets 'em, its catcher, and if any catcher gets 'em, its Munson. Munson may have been a 10-win player in his best 2 seasons in a neutral context, which is pretty awesome.

11)K. Boyer- A vote for very very good defense combined with above average hitting. Not as much of a hitting peak as I'd like to see, but it's hard to know how good his defense peak was.

12) P. Browning-I've come around on Browning. I still see him as a team cancer, I still see him as a drunk that cost his team games...but I don't think I could rationalize having been a big Waddell proponent and not even putting Borwning on the ballot.

13) C. Klein- I think his prime is clearly worthy, and without qualitative evidence to how much his home park helped him, I'm not inclined to dock points for that. the value of his 4-year peak is the same or better than any other hitter on the ballot. I suspect that people aren't voting for him because he was the last man standing when the 1930's spots ran out from the era-balancers, who are naturally appalled at the '30's representation spike. I say, his value clearly meets HoM standards for a peak voter, ergo, he gets a vote.

14) N. Fox- Weak league, weak hitter, but hellacious defense. Long career, but steep slopes on either side of his prime; his peak years are just good enough. High uncertainty; and I considered Dobie Moore for this spot. As an aside, I think we need to reassess Mazeroski.

15)J. Wynn- Good enough in the field. Has a very good consecutive peak of HoM caliber seasons. One of the first players that I finished in my "away OPS+" project, and he (and other flyball-heavy boppers) tended to benefit from the Astrodome relative to raw PF. This surprised me, and led me to drop him.

Required Disclosures:
D. Moore - Don't think that he's demonstrably better than the other peak-heavy players on the ballot.

C. Jones- I'm not sure he deserves blacklist credit. I'm not sure his seasons should be straightline adjusted to 154/162 games. I'm not sure his AA seasons are nearly as impressive as they appear. That's alot of things not to be sure about...and pushes him off the ballot below the Keller/Cravath/Wynn group.
   88. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 13, 2006 at 03:17 AM (#2236140)
Oh yeah, I'm 1-year boycotting Perry. Cheatin' is cheatin', even if its done charmingly.
   89. Ken Fischer Posted: November 13, 2006 at 02:26 PM (#2236287)
1989 Ballot

1-Johnny Bench 356 WS
No brainer…one of the top 5 or 6 catchers of all-time. He is perhaps the best ever behind the plate.

2-Carl Yastrzemski 488 WS
Volume of numbers would make him #1 most years. Great hitter in a pitcher’s era.

3-Gaylord Perry 369 WS
Would do about anything to win…including spit on the ball.

4-Ferguson Jenkins 323 WS
Could be a #1 choice in other years…may have to wait another year for the HOM.

5-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

6-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking.

7-Mickey Welch 354 WS
I continue to hold out hope for the 300-game winner. How can we forget that 1885 season!

8-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

12-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

13- Ken Boyer 279 WS
Boyer was overshadowed by Santo and perhaps his own teammates.

14-Dobie Moore
We’re taking a lot on hearsay…but I’ve been swayed by the argument he had a great peak.

15-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

Fox, Browning & Wynn are in my top 25. They’re getting close. My loyalty and belief in Van Haltren, Welch, Johnson, Schang & Stephens keep them out of the top 15. I expect Fox & Wynn to move up. Browning is a long shot. Jones is way down on my list (#73). I don’t give him holdout/blacklist credit but maybe I should. Jones had an interesting career but I don’t see the numbers to have him make a jump of 60 spots into my top 15. I spent this ballot reorganizing my top 85. Next time I’ll give Jones another look.

16-Luis Tiant 256 WS
17-Lou Brock 348 WS
18-Tony Mullane 399 WS
19-Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
20-Nellie Fox 304 WS
21-Jim Wynn
22-Gil Hodges 263 WS
23-Pete Browning 225 WS
24-Dick Lundy
25-Curt Flood 221 WS
26-Jim Kaat 268 WS
27-Red Schoendienst 262 WS
28-Ray Dandridge
29-Sam Rice 327 WS
30-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
31-Luis Aparico 293 WS
32-Orlando Cepeda
33-Ernie Lombardi 218 WS
34-Tony Lazzeri 252 WS
35-Leon Day
36-Judy Johnson
37-Dizzy Trout 228 WS
38-Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
39-Lave Cross 278 WS
40-Dizzy Dean 181 WS
41-Bobby Mathews 158 WS
42-Hilton Smith
43-Bill Wright
44-Maury Wills 253 WS
45-Pie Traynor 274 WS
46-Rabbit Maranville 302 WS
47-Hugh Duffy 295 WS
48-Bucky Walters 258 WS
49-Firpo Marberry 177 WS
50-Chet Brewer
51-Chuck Klein
52-Bud Fowler
53-Sammy T. Hughes
54-Bill Mazeroski 219 WS
55-Mike Tiernan
56-Jim McCormick 334 WS
57-Mickey Vernon 296 WS
58-Newt Allen
59-Oliver Marcelle
60-Dolf Luque 241 WS
61-Tommy Leach 328 WS
62-Jack Quinn 287 WS
63-Babe Adams 243 WS
64-Eddie Cicotte 247 WS
65-Mike Griffin 245 WS
66-Heavy Johnson
67-Frank Howard 297 WS
68-Kiki Cuyler 292 WS
69-John McGraw 207 WS
70-Herman Long
71-George Stovey
72-Charlie Keller 218 WS
73-Waite Hoyt 262 WS
74-Ben Taylor
75-Charlie Jones
76-Addie Joss
77-Babe Herman 232 WS
78-Lefty Gomez 185 WS
79-Bill Monroe
80-Nip Winters
81-Bruce Petway
82-Tommy Bond 243 WS
83-Vic Willis
84-Will White 239 WS
85-Harry Hooper 321 WS
   90. DavidFoss Posted: November 13, 2006 at 04:29 PM (#2236364)
Not very much drama this week. Four new players rank above my backlog.

1989 Ballot

1. Johnny Bench (ne) -- Multiple MVP catcher. Stood out on a team full of stars. Great hitter, great fielder. Inner Circle.
2. Carl Yastrzemski (ne) -- Great four year peak. Underrated in the 60s and overrated in the seventies. The peak is diluted by 15 years of 126 OPS+ or lower play, but its still there.
3. Gaylord Perry (ne) -- The first of a wave of contemporary 300-game (and near 300-game) winners. An underrated player by history. It'll be fun to see which cap he's wearing (I'm guessing Giants).
4. Ferguson Jenkins (ne) -- Consistent workhorse. 4500 IP and 115 ERA+ vaults him over the top of the rest of the backlog.
5. Larry Doyle (1) -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
6. John McGraw (3) -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
7. Gavvy Cravath (6) -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
8. Dick Redding (8) -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play.
9. Roger Bresnahan (9) -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
10. Charlie Keller (10) -- With war credit, his peak ranks right up with guys like Kiner. Will he get into the HOM before the great flood of expansion era hitters clogs the backlog?
11. Charley Jones (7) -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
12. Al Rosen (11) -- For five years, he was one of the greatest hitting 3B of all time.
13. Pete Browning (12) -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.
14. Bob Elliott (13) -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
15. Mickey Welch (nr) -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
16-20. Chance, Roush, Lombardi, BJohnson, Fox,
21-25. Beckley, DMoore, Trouppe, FHoward, Cash,
26-30. Bando, Leach, JWynn, Cepeda, Brock
   91. fra paolo Posted: November 13, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2236375)
Work has gotten in the way of this ballot again, but I'm almost at the end of the current project. I vote on the basis of achievements during prime, working on the basis of an average season during the prime, and defining prime differently for pitchers, hitting positions (1b+OF) and fielding positions (remaining IF).

1 Johnny Bench He gets first place because he dominates over his rivals like no-one else on my ballot.
2 Carl Yastrzemski He has a tremendous prime, but it's relatively short in the context of a long career. He hung around a while doing adequately as opposed to excellently.
3 Jimmy Wynn Way underrated. I think he provides an excellent combination of batting and fielding production.
4 Ken Boyer Boyer is an excellent third baseman in an 11-year prime, and is only a little less valuable than Childs. Another underrated candidate.
5 Bucky Walters. Equivalent to Pierce over his prime, but offers more high-impact seasons in contrast to greater consistency.
6 Alejandro Oms Oms beats out a crowded field of outer circle HoMer types because he has got the longest prime.
7 Orlando Cepeda By virtue of height of prime, he's first at first at the moment.
8 Bill Mazeroski By the measures I'm using, he adds more value as a fielder than any other player I've ever examined.
9 Dave Bancroft I think he's the best shortstop in the backlog at the moment. His main drawback is a lack of playing time.
10 Thurman Munson Closer to Freehan over prime than people seem to think, I rate these two as of equal value. If you voted for Freehan, but have not voted for Munson, I'd urge you to look again.
11 Tommy Bridges I like him better than Trout, and he's very close to Walters, but only just beats Shocker to a ballot place.
12 Pete Browning He's always been in contention for a place on my ballot, and I've finally decided to rank him ahead of Roush.
13 Charley Jones A dominant bat in his era, given a boost because of his missing years owing to a salary dispute.
14 Sal Bando My positional balance fetish returns Bando to my ballot. A very good bat married to a very poor glove. By my preferred batting measure, OPS+ against League position, he scores way ahead of Boyer (201 in 1973!). But his Fielding Runs are atrocious, and I give a lot of weight to fielding at 3b.
15 Lou Brock. One cannot ignore that he is, in 1985, the all-time stolen base leader. He also has a very long prime, at 13 years.

Fallen off ballot
Elston Howard Pushed off by Bench. Will he return next year?
Edd Roush I decided I was deducting too much of a discount from Browning's American Association numbers, and Roush has to yield to Browning.

Esteemed newcomers:
Gaylord Perry has a lot of value, but I'm getting mixed readings on how he stacks up against ballot incumbents Walters and Bridges. So I'm giving the incumbents the benefit of the doubt pending further review if Perry remains unelected this year. Ferguson Jenkins isn't really peak enough for me.

Required disclosures
Nellie Fox: I don't think he's overall as valuable as Mazeroski, and that the gap between the two candidacies is a Win Shares' distortion.
Jake Beckley: As with Gaylord Perry, I'm not sure about him, and I'm sticking with Cepeda for the time being.
Dobie Moore: His career was too short. Not that it was his fault.
   92. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2006 at 04:47 PM (#2236380)
Beckley – If Beckley was the best player on his team; a 100-loss season would be FAR MORE LIKELY than a pennant contender.

That's not the question to ask, Dan. The question to ask, IMO, is could a team win its division or league with each player equalling the value of the average Beckley season? The answer is unquestionably yes. Whether or not this means he's a HoMer is a different question, since the same could be said of every player who has received a vote from us since 1898.
   93. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2006 at 04:56 PM (#2236387)
45 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: James
Newburg, Don F, Al Peterson, Trevor P., Andrew M, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau, KJOK, the Commish, and Vaux.

All ballots need to be in by 8 PM EDT. Since we all know who will be elected, I'll allow a ballot if it's a little late.
   94. Esteban Rivera Posted: November 13, 2006 at 06:04 PM (#2236452)
1989 Ballot:

1. Carl Yastrzemski – Edges Bench for the top spot when all the value is added up.

2. Johnny Bench – Arguably the best MLB catcher ever.

3. Gaylord Perry – Behind Yaz and Bench but better than Fergie means he gets the final elect-me spot this year.

4. Ferguson Jenkins – Wonderful pitcher but will have to wait his turn.

5. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

8. Edd Roush – Vaults up into the top five with considerations for hold out credit.

9. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

10. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

11. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

14. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

15. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

16. Vic Willis – Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

17. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

18. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

19. Ken Boyer – Giving him a little war credit nudges him into the top 20.

20. Quincey Trouppe – All evidence points to him being a good to great hitter for his position and a solid if not good catcher. Works for me.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Jimmy Wynn – In my top 30.
   95. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2006 at 06:17 PM (#2236460)
> Ferguson Jenkins isn't really peak enough for me.

Five times in the top 3 in Cy Young voting isn't peak enough? I guess I'm just SHOCKED to see a ballot that doesn't have Perry OR Jenkins, especially one with Bucky Walters and Tommy Bridges on it. I can understand the boycotts of Perry because those voters have implied he will get an elect-me vote later. I can't understand preferring Bucky Walters to Perry. Set aside the slightly higher ERA plus in about 2300 extra innings and just go with best 10 seasons in PRAA:

GPerry 61 43 31 29 29 27 26 21 20 19
Jenkins 43 40 31 30 27 24 20 20 13 13
Bridges 31 28 26 24 23 23 22 21 19 12
Walters 43 35 29 27 21 15 09 08 07 -1

> I'm getting mixed readings on how he stacks up

So post a question on the ballot discussion thread. Don't wait until Monday morning and post a ballot that doesn't make sense. If you're not conforming to HoF OR HoM thinking you should at least have a question as to why.
   96. Patrick W Posted: November 13, 2006 at 06:20 PM (#2236461)
This would be the first HoF election that I remember. I’m thankful for the high caliber of the ’89 class, since the ballot was getting to be Slim Pickens.

1. Gaylord Perry (n/a), S.F. (N) – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’83) (1989) – I’m absolutely shocked by this ranking. Alexander, Williams, Feller, Roberts territory on the all-time list. If you win 64 games for the Indians in the ‘70s and there’s nobody there to see it, does it still count towards your peak totals?
2. Carl Yastrzemski (n/a), Bost. (A) LF / 1B (’61-’83) (1989) – 7th on my list for translated AB’s to date, so it could be a career argument over Bench’s peak. But not too many career candidates can show a peak like Yaz’s ’67-’68.
3. Johnny Bench (n/a), Cinn. (N) C (’68-’83) (1989) – Pretty clearly the 2nd best catcher of all time. Peak and catcher bonuses put him in discussion with Yaz for 2nd, but I can’t give Bench all these bonus points AND the subjective bump.
4. Fergie Jenkins (n/a), Chic. (N) SP (’66-’83) – Leaps and bounds ahead of anyone who appeared on the ’88 ballot. Will soon join the Jesse Burkett wing of no-brainers.
5. Luis Tiant (2), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
6. Jim Kaat (n/a), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
7. Ken Boyer (3), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding-dominant infielders further down the ballot. And he was a good defender in his own right.
8. Jimmy Wynn (4), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) (1985) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
9. Dutch Leonard (5), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
10. Dizzy Trout (6), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
11. Norm Cash (7), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
12. Alejandro Oms (8), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
13. George Van Haltren (9), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
14. Ben Taylor (10), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – I am comfortable being Ben’s 2nd-3rd biggest fan.
15. Bob Johnson (11), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) (1985) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.

Nellie Fox – Not the best glove man missing from the ballot.
Dobie Moore – Not enough career. Spot Poles and Bill Monroe – neither particularly close to the ballot anymore – are ranked higher on my ballot.
Charlie Jones – Charlie would have a chance at the ballot if the best OF’s available were Hank Sauer or Richie Zisk. And they’re not the best available.
Jake Beckley – Jake drops from the ballot because of the new blood coming on. Just like he will drop from the top ten in the group ballot.
Edd Roush – I can’t even tell if career voters or peak voters should be voting for Roush. Near the bottom of the OF consideration set.
Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed above, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.

Six players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   97. Tiboreau Posted: November 13, 2006 at 06:45 PM (#2236474)
1. c Johnny Bench (nc)
2. lf Carl Yastrzemski (nc)
3. sp Gaylord Perry (nc)—Former Tacoma Giant and Seattle Mariner a no-brainer for the HoM.
4. sp Ferguson Jenkins (nc)—While solidly below the top 3, Fly soars above the backlog; a definite HoMer who will have to wait a year due to the strong incoming class.
5. lf Charlie Keller (4)—After WWII credit Keller’s peak, while not quite as high, is sufficiently stronger than Kiner’s to slip ahead. King Kong also receives credit for his last year with the Newark Bears.
6. ss Dobie Moore (3)—Since his candidacy is based on his stellar peak (as well as pre-1920 credit) his numbers are underrated due to regression. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
7. sp Dizzy Dean (7)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
8. 3b Al Rosen (8)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else. Career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
9. cf Alejandro Oms (9)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
10. sp Bucky Walters (5)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
11. cf Jimmy Wynn (11)—One of my favorite ballplayers from before my time, an underrated ballplayer considering era and ballpark who combined speed and patience with surprising power for his stature, I’m happy to see him rate well. A real good peak, although the Toy Cannon’s inconsistency, mixing mediocre seasons with superb, hurts him a bit.
12. c Elston Howard (12)—After pre-MLB credit, a similar player to Roger Bresnahan; his peak is slightly better, career slightly shorter. Howard jumps ahead Bresnahan, however, due to the fact that he was entirely a catcher during his peak, while Bresnahan spent significant time in the outfield during his best years.
13. 3b Ken Boyer (14)—Looking solely at Win Shares, would dally with Doyle & Fox in the mid-20s; the combination of WARP's rating of his defense and the under-representation of 3b in the HoM pushes Boyer onto my ballot.
14. cf Edd Roush (15)—Missed playing time hurts, but still has a real good peak that is a bit overshadowed by WWI. Career puts him ahead of Berger, while peak puts him ahead of Ryan & Van Haltren (Pen. Add., excluding pitching WS: Roush, .793; Ryan, .781; Van Haltren, .771).
15. sp Carl Mays (ob)—While he benefited from some excellent defenses, Sub still had a sound, if inconsistent, peak.

Required Disclosures:
21. cf Hugh Duffy (ob)—No player has spent more time on my ballot; however, I could no longer reconcile Win Shares optimistic portrayal with his OPS+ and WARP numbers. A real good player, though, who should be back on my ballot someday.
22. 2b Nellie Fox (ob)—Two real good seasons plus several average ones puts the Fox just off my ballot in the company of Doyle, Larry Doyle.
27. c Quincy Trouppe (ob)—A difficult player to grasp, bouncing all over the map and under the reputation radar. Doesn't have quite the peak of Howard or Bresnahan, according to Dr. Chaleeko's numbers, and like Bresnahan appears to have been a multi-position player.
37. lf Charley Jones (ob) & 44. cf Pete Browning (ob)—The Charlie Keller and Gavy Cravath of the 1880s, proof there isn't much distance between 5 and 45.
49. 1b Jake Beckley (ob)—The usual reasons, although not as exaggerated as some might put it.
   98. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2236488)
> I'm getting mixed readings on how he stacks up

So post a question on the ballot discussion thread. Don't wait until Monday morning and post a ballot that doesn't make sense. If you're not conforming to HoF OR HoM thinking you should at least have a question as to why.


He may be having difficulties comparing those two to their contemporaries and then with other historical greats, DL, which is understandable since Perry and Jenkin's era is a humongous outlier for career length compared to other generations. Not to the same level since I have both of them on my ballot, but I have a similar problem. In fact, I'm always struggling with some aspect of my ballot, but I try to do the best that I can. As long as fra paolo is doing the same thing, that's fine by me. Especially when his ballot is a moot point. ;-)
   99. Jim Sp Posted: November 13, 2006 at 07:09 PM (#2236496)
Good thing it's a moot point.
   100. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2006 at 07:18 PM (#2236503)
People would jump all over him if he left off Bench and kept Elston Howard on the ballot and rightly so. I have a feeling that leaving off Perry and keeping Walters would have gone unnoticed if I hadn't said anything. Perry has the best season, best 3 seasons, best 7 seasons, best 10 seasons and about 2300 extra innings overall at the same ERA+. There's no way Bucky Walters' bat makes up for that. Walters is closer to Jim Perry than he is to Gaylord Perry.
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