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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, November 20, 2006

1990 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Joe Morgan, Jim Palmer, Ken Singleton, Amos Otis, Rick Monday, Greg Luzinski, Bob Watson, and Tug McGraw.

Top-ten returnees: Fergie Jenkins, Ken Boyer, Jimmy Wynn, Nellie Fox, Dobie Moore, Edd Roush, and Pete Browning.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 04:59 AM | 197 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 01:45 PM (#2242071)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1)Joe Morgan-2B (n/e): Greatest second baseman of his time? Check. Greatest second baseman since WWII? Check. Greatest player of the Seventies? Check. Great peak? Check. Great career numbers? Check. Inner-circle? Check. No-brainer? Check. IOW, I can't see any backloggers (including my pet player Roger Bresnahan) sniffing Morgan's air this election, not to mention Palmer or Jenkins. I'll be very disappointed if he's not unanimously chosen.

Best ML second baseman for 1965, 1967, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, and 1977. Best NL second baseman for 1969, 1980, 1981, and 1982. Wow.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (4): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Charlie Keller-LF (5): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

4) Charley Jones-LF/CF (6): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

5) Jim Palmer-P (n/e): Overrated, but clearly worthy. Best AL pitcher for 1973 and 1977. Best ML pitcher for 1975.

6) Fergie Jenkins-P (11): Okay, he gets a big boost, though most likely not as high as this electorate. Could have switched with Palmer, which shows how close I think they are. Best major league pitcher for 1971.

7) Bucky Walters-P (7): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

8) Mickey Welch-P (8): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

9) Pete Browning-CF/LF (9): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

10) Vic Willis-P (10): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 01:46 PM (#2242072)
11) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/dh (12): Glad to see that he's getting support now. Best player at his position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, 1969, and 1972. Best right fielder for 1974.

12) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (13): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

13) Gavvy Cravath-RF (14): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

14) Alejandro Oms-CF (15): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

15) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (n/e): Like Oms, back on my ballot after a few weeks absence. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

Boyer, Fox, and Roush all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short. Moore is #16..

Singleton and Otis were fine players, but they wont make my ballot now or in the future.
   3. Chris Cobb Posted: November 20, 2006 at 02:37 PM (#2242076)
1990 Ballot

Another strong entering class means another year of waiting for the backloggers and makes it possible for me to vote early for a change.

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments.

Since 1987, I have been more swayed in my subjective adjustments than I have in the past by issues of positional balance. That has become a second tie-breaking factor, along with peak talent, in arranging the candidates whom my system sees as just about equal. So I have brought more infielders on to my ballot.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Joe Morgan (n/e). % = 1.8466. My ballot is topped by a member of the Big Red Machine for the second year running. My system sees Morgan as the top player of the 1970s. He’s in the discussion with Collins, Hornsby, and Lajoie for greatest second baseman of all time.
2. Jim Palmer (n/e) % = 1.2055. Overrated, because he had such outstanding defensive support and spent his career in a pitcher’s park, but he still had a fabulous peak.
3. Ferguson Jenkins (4). % = 1.1917. He should be an easy choice this year. If I had a better sense of how park factors influence pitcher durability, I might bump him ahead of Palmer on the grounds that he was a workhorse in Wrigley when it increased offense by 10%, while Palmer was a workhorse in a park that decreased offense by 5-8%.
4. Quincy Trouppe (5). % = 1.0453. Discussion of the anecdotal record solidifies Trouppe’s case for me. I think he is disadvantaged in NeL lore because he was not slick behind the plate. The comment cited from one former NeL player that Trouppe was a great athlete who could have played other positions, but he was only an ok catcher strongly suggests that the oral history underrates Trouppe for the same reason it has overrated players like Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
5. Edd Roush (6). % = 1.0667. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me.
6. Charlie Keller (7). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
7. Dave Bancroft (8). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
8. Alejandro Oms (9) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
9. Tommy Leach (10). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time.
10. Jimmy Wynn (11). % = 1.0386. I was overrating him a bit, not sure why.
11. Jake Beckley (12). % = 1.0250. Gradually rising as the backlog clears.
12. Rabbit Maranville (13) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study suggests I was overvaluing him, but he still has a strong career argument.
13. Luis Tiant (14). % = 1.0229. Best pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Much better than Hunter and Lolich. I wouldn’t elect him now, but I think he should join the upper backlog.
14. Ken Boyer (15). % = 1.00. Ranks ahead of Norm Cash among 1960s borderliners on league-strength considerations. Positional considerations move him ahead of Bus Clarkson and Charley Jones.
15. Bus Clarkson (16). % = 1.00. Strong hitter; versatile defender.


1990 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Charley Jones (17). % = 1.00. Likewise.
17. Bobby Bonds (18) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak. Has an argument to rank higher, but with half of my ballot occupied by outfielders, I decided to be a touch conservative with Bonds to start.
18. Norm Cash. (19) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Boyer and Bonds on league-strength considerations.
19. Gavvy Cravath (20). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked.
20. Joe Tinker (21). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
21. Nellie Fox (22). % = 1.00. I support his eventual election, but I see him as the very weakest “should elect” infielder now eligible. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Boyer and Childs have to offer, and they just barely make my ballot.
22. Herman Long (23). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts.
23. Bob Johnson (24). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
24. Dom Dimaggio (25). % = 1.00. Likewise
25. Jimmy Ryan (26). % = 1.00. Likewise
26. Dick Redding (27). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

27. Reggie Smith .9923
28. Bill Monroe .9922
29. Don Newcombe .9886
30. Urban Shocker .9867
31. Jim Kaat. .9846.
32. Burleigh Grimes .9845
33. George Burns .9879
34. Willie Davis .9896
35. Ken Singleton (n/e) .9823. At his peak he was an outstanding offensive player (though he was not the match of Kiner/Keller/Stargell), but he had little defensive value and a short career. I see him as just a bit behind Smith (better career) and Bobby Bonds (much more complete player) among 1970s corner outfielders.
36. Mike Griffin .9791
37. Johnny Evers .9779
38. Fielder Jones .9778
39. Lave Cross .9709
40. Hugh Duffy .9686
41. Johnny Pesky .9676
42. Ben Taylor .9667
43. Cy Seymour .9665
44. Dick Bartell .9653
45. George Van Haltren .9538
46. Larry Doyle .9614
47. Bobby Veach .9609
48. Buzz Arlett .9602
49. Vada Pinson .9599
50. Leroy Matlock .9544
51. Tommy Bond .9511


Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #21 above

Dobie Moore. % = .9293 He misses my ballot, and my top 50, because I don’t find his peak to be so outstanding that it counterbalances his lack of career.

Charley Jones. See #16 above.

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in.

Dick Redding. See #26 above.

New Arrivals worthy of note but outside Top 50 eligible:

Amos Otis. % = .9003 Very good centerfielder. A little bit better than Roy White, a little bit worse than Cesar Cedeno.
   4. Daryn Posted: November 20, 2006 at 03:21 PM (#2242098)
Roush is 25, Wynn is 29.

1. Joe Morgan – inner circle.

2. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed put him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

3. Fergie Jenkins -- slightly better than Palmer; both are well deserving.

4. Jim Palmer – has a career, a peak and a nice ass.

5. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

6. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. Best career pitcher eligible.

7. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

8. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

10. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

11. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

12. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

13. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Roush, Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot. I'm least comfortable about this placing than any other on this ballot.

14. George Van Haltren, of – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares. The appearance of Singleton and Staub and Oliver made me re-review GVH and Ryan, but did not change their placement. I consider both of them and Duffy to be slightly better than the new batch of similar value players.

15. Jimmy Ryan, of – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

16. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.
17. Pie Traynor, 3b -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.
18. Ken Boyer, 3b – nice glove – pretty indistinguishable from Gordon (elected), Sewell (elected) and Leach (whom I have at 24).
19. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.
20. Dobie Moore
21. Jim Kaat
   5. Rusty Priske Posted: November 20, 2006 at 03:21 PM (#2242099)
PHoM: Joe Morgan, Fergie Jenkins, Jim Palmer

1. Joe Morgan (new)

Easy choice.

2. Fergie Jenkins (5,x,x)

Nearly as big a gap between 2 and 3 as there is between 1 and 2.

3. Jake Beckley (6,2,1)
4. Edd Roush (7,8,8)
5. George Van Haltren (9,4,6)
6. Tommy Leach (11,10,10)
7. Nellie Fox (8,6,3)
8. Dobie Moore (12,11,4)
9. Jimmy Wynn (10,5,7)
10. Mickey Welch (4,7,5)
11. Lou Brock (13,9,2)
12. Quincy Trouppe (15,12,11)
13. Norm Cash (x,14,13)
14. Jim Palmer (new)

Wothy of induction, but there are others who are more worthy.

15. Orlando Cepeda (x,x,14)

16-20. Duffy, R.Smith, Rice, Singleton, Ryan
21-25. Boyer, Mullane, Willis, Johnson, Doyle
26-30. Bonds, Grimes, Streeter, Browning, McCormick
   6. rawagman Posted: November 20, 2006 at 03:44 PM (#2242118)
Morgan and Palmer go straight to PHOM, taking Fergie along for the ride. I liked Amos Otis. He debuts at 44. Probably not enough to ever make my PHOM or ballot. Bob Watson, Greg Luzinski and Ken Singleton make the consideration set, but not by as much as I might have thought. Singleton is between Bobby Bonds and Bobby Murcer. Both outside of my top 75. Watson looks like a poor man's Roy Sievers. Greg Luzinski look slike something between Sid Gordon and Lefty O'Doul.
Then there's Jimmy Wynn - I'm just not impressed. Not in my top 75.

1)Joe Morgan - Maybe not the best 2B ever, but he's definately in the argument.(PHOM)
2)Jim Palmer - Colour me impressed. (PHOM)
3)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. He is the definition of my 'type' - the player who can do everything. (PHOM)
4)Fergie Jenkins - Loyalty to Duffy, or just blindness. Oh, Canada! (PHOM)
5)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on (and up!!) the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
6)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
7)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available backlog pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
8)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
9)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
10)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week.(PHOM)
11)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations.
12)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
((12a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
((12b)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))

13)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
((13a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.))
14)Orlando Cepeda
15)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.
16)Wally Berger - super-underrated
17)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half.
18)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((18a)Juan Marichal))
19)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
20)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
21)Roger Bresnahan
22)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
23)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((23a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((23b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))

24)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
25)Chuck Klein
26)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
27)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit.
28)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((28a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
29)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.
30)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((30a)Cupid Childs))
31)Pete Browning
32)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
33)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
34)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
35)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
36)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
37)Phil Rizzuto
38)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
39)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
40)John McGraw
41)Jimmy Ryan
42)Cy Williams
43)Dolf Camilli
44)Amos Otis - A solid addition to the consideration set. There are some players whose OPS+ numbers underrate their offensive ability/usefullness. There are others for whom OPS+ overrates. Amos Otis is the type of player who really fits the mold of his OPS+.
45)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
46)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
47)George Kell
48)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
49)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
50)Sal Bando
51)Pie Traynor - makes a leap to here.
52)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
53)Johnny Evers
54)Elston Howard
55)Bob Johnson
56)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
57)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for pure "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
58)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
59)Vic Willis - A reaximantion of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
60)Red Schoendienst
61)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
62)Thurmon Munson - see below.
63)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
64)Johnny Pesky
65)Hippo Vaughn
66)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
67)Tip O'Neill - The other Canadian.
68)Rocky Colavito
69)Denny Lyons
70)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
71)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
72)Lon Warneke
73)Kiki Cuyler
74)Urban Shocker
75)Alejandro Oms
   7. rawagman Posted: November 20, 2006 at 03:46 PM (#2242123)
John - Chris Fluit asked that his 1990 prelim be posted for him - it's in the low 80's of the 1990 Ballot discussion page.
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 04:38 PM (#2242158)
Here's Chris Fluit's ballot (thanks, Ryan!):

I'm going to be leaving on a family vacation soon and won't be back 'til the end of November after our 1990 election is concluded. So could someone please post this in the 1990 ballot thread when it's opened? Thanks. Also, I'm working on the assumption that Bench, Perry and Yastrzemski will be elected.

1. Joe Morgan, 2B (n/e). Monster peak. Long prime. Great glove. Weak position. Morgan is an easy choice for number one.

2. Jim Palmer, P (n/e)
3. Fergie Jenkins, P (4). A tough call. Palmer has a better and longer peak than Jenkins. Jenkins has the longer prime. Palmer beats Jenkins on career rate stats, but Jenkins beats him out on cumulative stats. And on a personal note, I'm Canadian so I like Jenkins. But I'm also an Orioles fan so I like Palmer. I flipped a metaphorical coin and went with Palmer based on those 3 Cy Youngs but it could've just as easily gone the other way.

4. Dick Redding, P (5). PHOM- 1975. His winning percentage is .100 points better than his team's. He broke the 300 innings pitched barrier more often than Coveleski, Faber or Rixey. And if not for time missed due to military service in World War I (Redding missed the bulk of the 1918 and 1919 seasons), we'd be looking at someone with MLEs of greater than 250 wins.

5. Quincy Trouppe, C (6). PHOM-1977. A great-hitting catcher with patience and power who was able to lead his team to several pennants and a 1947 Negro League Championship. Plus, he was picked for 5 Negro League All-Star teams despite spending his best years south of the border.

6. Nellie Fox, 2B (7). PHOM- 1976. One of the major reasons why we elected Joe Sewell was his great at bats per strikeout ratio. Well, that's a pretty good reason to vote for Nellie Fox, too. He has the fourth best career mark- which may not be quite as good as Sewell- but Nellie led his league in that category more times than Joe, 12 to 9 including 11 straight from 1954 to 1964 for Fox.

7. Lou Brock, LF (8). PHOM- 1985. Among the best career candidates on the ballot, Brock used his speed to accumulate 486 doubles and 141 triples (leading the league in each category once) as well as those notorious 938 stolen bases.

8. Alejandro Oms, CF (9). PHOM- 1984. A very underrated outfielder who was among the best in the Negro Leagues in the 1920s and was still good enough to be a league-leader his native Cuban leagues through much of the '30s. Recently dropped him behind Brock; although Oms has the better peak, it's hard to extrapolate as lengthy a prime or as full a career as that of Brock.

9. Burleigh Grimes, P (10). PHOM- 1984. I don't have the personal attachment to Grimes that I do to most of the other players on the ballot. But with the second best career totals for a pitcher and the peak that Welch is missing, I find no fault with his numbers.

10. Don Newcombe, P (11). PHOM- 1987. Military credit gives Newcombe seven outstanding seasons from 1949-1953 and 1955-1956, more peak seasons than any other pitcher on the ballot. And a few seasons of Negro League/minor league credit give him enough of a career to warrant consideration

11. Luis Aparicio, SS (12). PHOM- 1987. He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He won five straight Gold Gloves from 1958-1962 and then another 4 in alternating years from 1964-1970. Plus, like Joe Sewell, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from 1958 to 1973 and leading the league his league twice in 1969 and 1973.

12. Hugh Duffy, CF (13). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

13. Ken Boyer, 3B (14). The best third baseman on the ballot and too close to Santo to be kept out of the HOM for much longer.

14. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (15). I like Cepeda as the best first baseman on the ballot. He's got the peak that a career-guy like Beckley is missing and the career that a peak-guy like Chance is missing.

15. Dobie Moore, SS (n/a). Back on my ballot after a one-year absence, Moore jumped over both Hilton Smith and Ernie Lombardi. That's indicative of my growing confidence in Moore's record as well as increasing doubts about Smith and Lombardi. I'm thinking that Moore really is the best shortstop on the ballot, which means I might even move him ahead of Aparicio before too long.

Necessary Disclosures on New Eligibles and Top 10 Returnees:
Here's the full list of returnees from 1988 though I'm sure that the new eligibles of '89 pushed a few of these guys out of the top ten.
Jimmy Wynn: Not good enough for not long enough.
Charley Jones: I don't give Jones any credit for his time on the blacklist. Even if I did, he'd still be just off-ballot in the neighborhood of Bob Johnson and Chuck Klein.
Jake Beckley: I had him 16th last time, which means he drops to 19th this time around.
Pete Browning and Edd Roush: They're both top five center fielders as far as I'm concerned, which is good enough to be in the top 35 but not good enough to make the ballot. Oms, Duffy (who are both on-ballot) and Vada Pinson (who is not) are the other three.
Ken Singleton: I'm not sure he even makes my top 100.
   9. OCF Posted: November 20, 2006 at 05:04 PM (#2242174)
1990 Ballot.

1. Joe Morgan (new) [Flaps elbow.]
2. Jim Palmer (new) He's good. My thoughts, in detail, are mostly in the early part of the 1990 ballot thread.
3. Ferguson Jenkins (----, 4) RA+ equivalent record of 287-213, with a good peak. Throw strikes, have something on the pitch. It's simple, if you can do it.
4. Larry Doyle (2, 3, 2, 2, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
5. Quincy Trouppe (5, 4, 3, 3, 6) More so even than most Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork. But I've been convinced for a while.
6. Orlando Cepeda (6, 5, 4, 4, 7) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I would take Cepeda over him.
7. Jimmy Wynn (7, 6, 5, 5, 8) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
8. George Van Haltren (8, 7, 6, 6, 9) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
9. Norm Cash (9, 8, 7, 7, 10) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
10. Tommy Bridges (12, 9, 8, 8, 11) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
11. Bucky Walters (10, 11, 10, 9, 12) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
12. Frank Howard (14, 12, 11, 10, 13) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
13. Ken Boyer (17, 14, 13, 11, 14) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
14. Lou Brock (15, 15, 14, 12, 15) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
15. Sal Bando (--, 15, 13, 16) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
16. Bob Elliott (18, 16, 16, 14, 17) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
17. Luis Tiant (---, 15, 18) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value - and more reason for caution, as we try to figure out how many 70's pitchers are worthy.
18. Reggie Smith (---, 16, 19) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
19. Jake Beckley (19, 17, 17, 17, 20) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
20. Ken Singleton (new) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
21. Gene Tenace (----, 21) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)22. Dick Redding (21, 20, 18, 18, 18)
22. Luis Aparicio (21, 19, 19, 19, 22) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
23. Bobby Bonds (--, 20, 20, 23) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
24. Hugh Duffy (22, 20, 21, 21, 24) Nothing new to say after all these years.
26. Rabbit Maranville (23, 21, 22, 22, 25) Glove and career length.
27. Mickey Vernon (24, 22, 23, 23, 26) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
28. Nellie Fox (25, 23, 24, 24, 27) Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
29. Phil Rizzuto (26, 24, 25, 25, 28) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
30. Edd Roush (29, 28, 26, 27, 27, 29)

Moore is just outside my top 30, along with Stevens, E. Howard, and Johnson. I never did see the case for Jones and nothing's changed. I used to vote for Browning but he's been crowded off.
   10. Max Parkinson Posted: November 20, 2006 at 05:45 PM (#2242198)
1990 ballot (MP HoMers in bold, new electees in ’89 are Morgan, Jenkins and Palmer):

1. Joe Morgan

I’ve got him as the 3rd best 2B of all time (through 1989, although changing the date to 2006 won’t change anything…). I guess that there’s no question about who the best four are, it’s just in what order. For me it’s Hornsby, Collins, Morgan, Lajoie.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Fergie Jenkins

The best Canadian pitcher of all time.

4. Jim Palmer

These two are pretty close – I see them as the 27th and 29th best pitchers of all time (through 1989), with Marichal in between.

5. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

6. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

7. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

8. Dick Redding
9. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

10. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

11. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

12. Ben Taylor
13. George Burns
14. Bobby Veach

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

15. Bucky Walters

I have to admit that I wouldn’t mind splitting this vote between Walters and Keller, as they’re so close to me, but the tie-breaker was that I really didn’t want a ballot with 7 outfielders….

16-20. Keller, Cash, Lazzeri, Bancroft, Shocker
21-25. Duffy, Munson, Konetchy, B. Johnson, Tenace
26-30. R. White, Tiant, W. Wood, Cuyler, Cicotte
31-35. Roush, Youngs, Bridges, Klein, Tiernan
36-40. Campaneris, Hooper, Rucker, F. Jones, Traynor
41-45. Trouppe, Boyer, Bonds, Bradley, F. Howard
46-50. Wynn, Willis, Trout, E. Howard, Oms
51-55. Seymour, Nicholson, Leach, Chance, Griffin
56-60. Cepeda, Gomez, Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang
61-65. S.J. Wood, Nash, R. Smith, Dunlap, Luque
66-70. Beckley, Harder, Bottomley, B. Elliott, Bartell
71-75. Bando, Hodges, N. Fox, Newcombe, Fournier
76-80. V. Stephens, Pennock, Maranville, Bresnahan, Mays

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Fox – 73.
Boyer – 42.
Roush – 31. He’s recently moved up about 10 spots.
Beckley – 66.
Wynn – 46.

I just don’t see any of these as particularly electable. I’m closest with Roush, but I fear that the gap between my HoM and the general one will grow once we get past the 89-92 rush.
   11. yest Posted: November 20, 2006 at 05:48 PM (#2242199)
1990 ballot
Palmer , Morgan , and Jenkins make my PHOM this year

1. Jim Palmer greatest AL pitcher since WWII 20 wins 8 times no grand slams (if I give Palmer credit for his advertisements he wont even make my top 100)(makes my pHoM this year)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
6. Joe Morgan sorry to disappoint you John (not a big fan (very good not great) of his defense (but love the flap)) (if he would have more time on the ballot he might move up to 2 but he‘ll still be way past Palmer ) 4 OBP titles, not even close to Gerhinger (for some reason I never liked him 333/412/733 in the 76 WS) (makes my pHoM this year)
7. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Ferg(ie)(uson) Jenkins 3192 strikeouts -997 walks (makes my pHoM this year)
13. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
14. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
15. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
16. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
17. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
18. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
19. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
20. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
21. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
22. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
23. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
24. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
27. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
28. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
29. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
30. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
31. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
36. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
37. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
38. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
39. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
41. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Trouppe and Dobie Moore barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Ken Boyer a great candidate for the HoVG
Jimmy Wynn don’t buy the Houston logic
Charley Jones no black list points
   12. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: November 20, 2006 at 05:55 PM (#2242205)
Joe Morgan sixth behind Tony Oliva. Well, I've seen it all now.
   13. OCF Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:14 PM (#2242218)
I see that my 16-30 preferences got a little tangled up there. Your reasonable guesses about what I intended would probably be correct; since it involves off-ballot positions, I won't explicitly fix it until next year. And as for yest ... ... I won't say it.
   14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:19 PM (#2242221)
Joe Morgan sixth behind Tony Oliva. Well, I've seen it all now.

I wish I hadn't.

I have Morgan leading the NL 14 times at his position (10 of those years he led the majors), not to mention quite a few times as the MVP of the NL. How do Traynor, Klein, Fox, or Oliva compare to that? The answer is they don't and it's not even close.

Respectfully, Morgan at #6 is indefensible.
   15. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:22 PM (#2242224)
not even close to Gerhinger

Only if you think the Mechanical Man would have hit .320 during Morgan's time, which he wouldn't have or even close to it.
   16. Mark Donelson Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:25 PM (#2242226)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

Palmer’s arrival made me do a little rejiggering of my pitchers; mainly it was that the comparisons to Tiant made me feel I had the latter too low, so he rises. But that discovery led me to a quick reinvestigation of the other pitchers in my consideration set. No huge changes resulted, with just Walters dropping slightly—I had been weighing his top three years inordinately, I think.

pHOM: Morgan, Jenkins, Palmer

1990 ballot:

1. Joe Morgan (pHOM 1990). Another Big Red Machine guy in the top slot. He’s not the best MLB 2B ever—Collins and Hornsby both rank above him—but he’s not far back, and neck-and-neck with Lajoie for third. That makes him an easy #1.

2. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m confident this guy was the real deal.

3. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

4. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

5. Fergie Jenkins (pHOM 1990). His peak isn’t quite as impressive as Perry’s or Dean’s, but it’s a lot better than I’d thought. To my surprise, I end up liking him slightly better than Palmer overall.

6. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.)

7. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

8. Jim Palmer (pHOM 1990). The subject of much discussion this week—how much were his raw numbers helped by the great O’s defenses? And even if the answer is “a lot,” is it possible he was simply taking quite sensible advantage of them, and could effectively change course when he needed to pitch a different way? It’s hard to be absolutely sure, and I’m not certain enough to just dismiss the defense issue entirely. But there’s also enough ammo here—the evidence that he could pitch to the situation effectively, his general reputation as the AL’s best pitcher over his prime—for a bullshirt dump that elevates him well beyond where my system would normally place him, given his low peak in PRAA.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix—his PRAA peak is still excellent.

10. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

11. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

12. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

13. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). Surpassed recently by Freehan and Howard, but still quite worthy.

14. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluate outfielders, he does a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With even conservative minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

15. Luis Tiant. The comparison this week with Palmer made me look more closely at his peak. It’s short, but it’s also pretty stellar. That warranted a small bump up, just enough to get him on the ballot this time around.
   17. Chris Cobb Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:25 PM (#2242228)
I hate to be the instigator of unpleasantness, but I have to ask the question: should yest's ballot be allowed to stand?

The HoM has been open-minded about accepting pretty much any ballot that for which a rationale is offered that doesn't violate Constitutional principles, but

Tony Oliva 131 OPS+, 6879 PA, OF/DH, 85 SB/55 CS, 0 MVP
Joe Morgan 132 OPS+, 11329 PA, 2B, 689 SB/162 CS, 2 MVP

Morgan was better at the plate, better in the field, better on the bases, for nearly twice as long, and was, by the consensus of sportswriters and statheads, the best player in the game for 2+ years, while Oliva never achieved such distinction.

Can any "rationale" in defense of this ranking be judged rational?

On Morgan vs. Nellie Fox (whom yest has also ranked ahead), Morgan tops Fox by 38 points of OPS+.
   18. karlmagnus Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:25 PM (#2242229)
Morgan’s a clear #1, though I don’t rate him quite with Collins or Hornsby. Palmer’s pretty close to Gibson, significantly ahead of Jenkins – early finish keeps him just below Beckley (who had a much longer career, although Palmer’s 125ERA+ is more Meritorious than Beckley’s 125 OPS+). Singleton lacks a bit on both length and quality; near bottom of consideration set, around Boog. Otis enough worse than Singleton to be off bottom of consideration set.

1. (N/A) Joe Morgan By a medium sized margin; among the greatest 2B, but like catcher the position’s a little thin. 2517 hits at 132. TB+BB/PA .514, TB+BB/Outs .832.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 70 “years” ago.

3. (N/A) Jim Palmer 268-152, 3968IP at 125. About the equivalent of Gibson.

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

5. (N/A-5) Fergie Jenkins 284-226, 4500IP@115, OPS+23, good for his era. Main strength is his career length.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!
   19. karlmagnus Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:26 PM (#2242230)
11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

13. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

14. (N/A-15-N/A-13-13-15) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey. Back on again as Stretch was elected.

15. (N/A-14-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. Back off ballot, will return.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back up towards ballot in Pierce’s slot.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

20. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

21. Reggie Smith 2020 hits at OPS+ of 137. Extra intangibles for membership of Impossible Dream. TB”BB/PA .537, TB+BB/Outs .810. Better player than I thought at the time.

22. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

23. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
24. Ben Taylor.

25. Jim Kaat 4530IP@107. 283-237 Very good for a very long time; will make ballot in weak year. OPS+37, good for his era.

26. Orlando Cepeda
27. Norm Cash
28. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
29. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
30. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
31. Lou Brock
32. Mickey Vernon
33. Thurmon Munson
34. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
35. Sal Maglie.
36. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
37. (N/A) Heinie Manush
38. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
39. Bob Elliott
40. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
41. (N/A) Dick Lundy
42. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
43. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
44. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
45. Gene Tenace
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Boog Powell
49. Ken Singleton. Just below Boog, I think. 2029 hits at 132. TB+BB/PA .514, TB+BB/Outs .795.
50. Sal Bando.
51. Jim Fregosi.
52. Jack Quinn
53. Tony Mullane
54. Pie Traynor
55. Jim McCormick
56. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
57. Joe Judge
58. Edd Roush Same quality as Beckley but less valuable defensive position and 20% shorter career. Yes, he’s good, but Beckley’s a lot better.
59. Spotswood Poles.
60. Larry Doyle
61. Curt Simmons
62. Roger Bresnahan.
63. Waite Hoyt.
64. Harry Hooper.
65. Vada Pinson
66. Gil Hodges
67. Jules Thomas.
68. Rico Carty.
69. Wilbur Cooper
70. Bruce Petway.
71. Jack Clements
72. Bill Monroe
73. Herb Pennock
74. Chief Bender
75. Ed Konetchy
76. Jesse Tannehill
77. Bobby Veach
78. Lave Cross
79. Tommy Leach.
80. Tom York

Moore hugely overrated; off my consideration set.
Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions.
   20. Mark Donelson Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#2242231)
16-20: C. Jones (1976), Fox (1986), Roush (1988), Gomez (1987), Bresnahan (1973)
21-25: J. Wynn (1987), Walters (1968), [Faber], F. Howard, Duffy (1930), McGraw
26-30: [B. Williams], H. Smith, Oms, Redding (1975), Pesky, Singleton
31-35: Bando, Trout, Boyer, Joss, [E. Wynn], Berger, [Reese]
36-40: H. Wilson, [Lyons], Leach, McCormick, Doyle, [Minoso], Chance
41-45: Elliott, Cepeda, Munson, Burns, Marshall
46-50: J. Ryan, Rizzuto, Bobby Bonds, Easter, Veach

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Boyer. Not my favorite of the eligible 3Bs—I prefer the peak-heavier Rosen and Williamson, and even McGraw. He’s midpack, right on the borderline as far as whether he’ll end up making my pHOM or not. At #33.

•Wynn. Again, not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. Like Fox, he’s in my pHOM now, and, at #21, not too far off ballot.

•Fox. I like him too. He’s in my pHOM and quite close to my ballot, at #17.

•Roush. Another guy whose peak doesn’t quite measure up to those of those on my ballot, but my opinion of him has risen lately; he’s just off-ballot now, at #18.

•Singleton. He does a lot better in my system than his ex-broadcast partner did. He’s got a really nice little peak, one that matches those of the likes of Clemente and Kaline. But he doesn’t have the extended prime, and that’s what got those guys past their still rather small peaks and onto my ballot. Singleton debuts at #30, right on the borderline of eventual pHOM enshrinement. He seems like a real sweetheart of a guy, though that (I hope) hasn’t swayed me one way or the other.

•Otis. Hall of Very Good, though he’s historically underrated. Not enough peak for me.

•Luzinski. A little peak there, but not nearly enough for someone who had very little to offer beyond offense.

•McGraw. Another reliever on the close-but-no-cigar list. I put him fifth among those we’ve seen so far, after Wilhelm, Marshall, Hiller, and Stu Miller, but that’s not enough to get him into my top 50, or even that close.

•Rivers, Piniella, Tidrow, Dent. Ah, the heroes of my youth. What a bunch of nuts. I particularly enjoy the memory of a smoke bomb being tossed onto the field during a World Series game, and the smoke slowly enveloping Rivers, who made not effort to escape the cloud (caveat: I was seven years old, so my memory may be overdramatizing the event). Mick the Quick waved that he was OK, smiling, as the smoke cloud dissipated, and the game went on.

Oh, yeah, and there’s a Dent memory from my childhood that I kinda enjoy too. :)
   21. Mark Donelson Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:29 PM (#2242232)
Wow...didn't think I paused that long between my ballot posts!
   22. Jim Sp Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:33 PM (#2242236)
I hate to be the instigator of unpleasantness, but I have to ask the question: should yest's ballot be allowed to stand?

I agree, it's time to ask the question.
   23. Mark Donelson Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:34 PM (#2242238)
And as a fellow contrarian (of a completely different kind), I hesitate to call yest's Morgan placement, or anyone's placement of anyone, out.

Yet this one really does seem to take the cake. Perhaps he should at the very least weigh in again a bit more, addressing the criticism from John and Chris specifically?

Oliva ahead of Morgan was so shocking that I didn't even notice Fox was ahead of him too till someone pointed it out. Wow.
   24. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:52 PM (#2242248)
Yet this one really does seem to take the cake. Perhaps he should at the very least weigh in again a bit more, addressing the criticism from John and Chris specifically?

He's going to tout defense and batting average.

As long as he votes, most likely Schmidt, Jackson, etc. will receive the same treatment.

I hate to be the instigator of unpleasantness, but I have to ask the question: should yest's ballot be allowed to stand?

I agree, it's time to ask the question.


I don't know what the answer is.
   25. karlmagnus Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:58 PM (#2242252)
As the second most eccentric voter on most ballots, I would very strongly object to anyone casting out Yest for not liking Joe Morgan. The Delphi method simply doesn't work if groups can get together and cast out ballots for being off-consensus. Also yest's very knowledgeable, and has been voting here for 80 "years." I speak as one who had Morgan #1, so for once I'm not simply a less extreme version of yest.
   26. yest Posted: November 20, 2006 at 06:59 PM (#2242253)
On Morgan vs. Nellie Fox (whom yest has also ranked ahead), Morgan tops Fox by 38 points of OPS+.
the rason I have Fox higher is I think Fox was a much much better fielder then Morgan (3rd best ever after McPhee and Maz while Morgan while good doesn't make my to 20) (while I also raite his offence higher then most) enogh to equal the differance in hitting which is substansiol

Morgan vs Oliva is due to a mistake in ordering I meant to put Morgan first which is where he is on my charts but when puting him on this years ballot I put him underneath by accedent (I numbered it with out looking at the order)

my ballot should have read
1. Jim Palmer
2. Pie Traynor
3. Nellie Fox
4. Chuck Klein
5. Joe Morgan
6. Tony Oliva
7. Mickey Welch
8. Sam Rice
9. Pete Browning
10. Jake Beckley
11. Hack Wilson
12. Ferg(ie)(uson) Jenkins
13. Hugh Duffy
14. Addie Joss
15. George Kell
   27. Daryn Posted: November 20, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2242254)
Fox ahead of Morgan is philosophically justifiable, if you think there was a defensive chasm, which yest alludes to.

If yest had a different voting philosophy (counting the best 7000 at bats only and not counting defense) Oliva over Morgan seems to be a wrong call, but to use Canadian legal terms, not patently unreasonable. But yest, for his other candidates, does consider full career statistics and defence, and therefore Oliva over Morgan seems inconsistent.

Overall, we know something about yest -- he cares about his vote and considers each candidate fully. He is aware of the facts and is analyzing them differently than we are. That makes me reluctant to challenge his ballot. In fact, my greater concern about yest's ballot is a possible failure to consider the underdocumented players properly/fully.
   28. Daryn Posted: November 20, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#2242259)
I wrote 27 before I saw 25 or 26. I think what karl and I independently referred to is an important thing to consider -- yest's foibles aren't through lack of knowledge or inattention to his duties as a voter.
   29. yest Posted: November 20, 2006 at 07:11 PM (#2242265)
As long as he votes, most likely Schmidt, Jackson ect.
Schmidt will definatly be number 1 unless by some miracle Palmer, Carew, Seaver, Carlton, or the gambler are left on the ballot (and even then in some of the decisions might go to Schmidt) not sure where Jackson will go yett
   30. Chris Cobb Posted: November 20, 2006 at 07:31 PM (#2242285)
Fox ahead of Morgan is philosophically justifiable, if you think there was a defensive chasm, which yest alludes to.

But what about practical justifications?

We can niggle over the details, but the distance between Joe Morgan and Nellie Fox as offensive players (38 points OPS+) is similar to the distance between Jimmy Wynn (128 OPS+) and Ty Cobb (167 OPS+). If Ty Cobb were an average or even a below average centerfielder, how good woudl Jimmy Wynn's defense need to be for him to overcome that kind of difference in offensive performance?

All the evidence that I have seen indicates that Joe Morgan was about average as a defensive second baseman. If that is so, what is the evidence that the difference between an average second baseman and the #3 defensive second baseman of all time (which I will accept as an evaluation of Fox for the sake of argument) is great enough to overcome a Wynn-Cobb gap in offensive value? Alternatively, what is the evidence that Morgan was much worse than average defensively?
   31. rico vanian Posted: November 20, 2006 at 07:53 PM (#2242294)
1) Joe Morgan – Awesome. When I was a kid, I loved that weird way he used to pump his arm when he batted.
2) Jim Palmer- Just a great pitcher. Almost inner-circle. Even in a pitcher's park and with great D; you still gotta produce, and he did.
3) Fergie Jenkins- Another guy with a great peak and career.

a big gap between the top 3 three and the rest...

4) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
5) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
6) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
9) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
10) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
11) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
13) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
14) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.
15) Ken Boyer - MVP. 7 all star games.

No soup for…
16) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) Edd Roush – I like Rice better, but I am coming around on Roush.
19) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
20) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
21) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
22) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
23) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
24) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
25) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
26) Jim Kaat- I am comfortable with him in this position. Career length enabled him to put up some interesting numbers, but I don’t think he’s good enough for the HOM (or the HOF for that matter).
27) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
28) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
29) Reggie Smith &
30) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons...
31) Quincy Trouppe- Not sold on him. Certainly isn't one of the ten catchers (up to 1988)

None of the other newbies are top 50.
   32. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:00 PM (#2242295)
As long as he votes, most likely Schmidt, Jackson ect.
Schmidt will definatly be number 1 unless by some miracle Palmer, Carew, Seaver, Carlton, or the gambler are left on the ballot (and even then in some of the decisions might go to Schmidt)


Well, that makes me very happy, yest! :-)
   33. sunnyday2 Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:01 PM (#2242297)
I agree (not with the ballot). But I agree that it stands. I could pick any ballot at random and find an equally indefensible argument--well, not in quantitative terms, but in qualitative terms at least--a ballot, in other words, where the lower ranked player was better on offense, better on defense, had a higher peak, and a longer career. There's lots of examples. Hell, half of them are on my ballot.
   34. jhwinfrey Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2242302)
Here's my ballot. I'm a career-centric voter, and I start with Win Shares as my initial framework, then adjust for playing time, peak, league dominance, and fielding, with a few positional bonuses thrown in for C, 3B, and SS.

I had a great time this past week reconstructing my Personal Hall of Merit for the 38 ballots that I missed. Ferguson Jenkins joins Morgan and Palmer in my PHoM this year.

1990 Ballot
(PHoM induction year)

1. Joe Morgan: I don't think anyone should be censured for having Morgan #6 on their ballot. It's ok with me if someone leaves him off their ballot, as long as they can give a convincing argument. (1990)

2. Jim Palmer: Nearly 4000 IP at an ERA+ of 125. That's value. (1990)

3. Burleigh Grimes: Grimes' better 5-year peak gives him the edge over Jenkins for me. Grimes is much closer to Jenkins than he is to Palmer. (1940)

4. Ferguson Jenkins: 4500 IP at an ERA+ of 115. Plus he hit .500 in '74! (1990)

5. Orlando Cepeda: 8695 PA at an OPS+ of 133. I'd love to see him join Gaylord Perry in the KC Royals wing of the HoM. (1985)

6. Jake Beckley: 10470 PA at an OPS+ of 125. Compare him to Zack Wheat, who got in on his first ballot. (1927)

7. Charley Jones: Only 4000 PA in his career, but what a peak! 8 seasons above 145 in OPS+. (1958)

8. Dick Redding: Clearly one of the great pitchers of his era. He might belong ahead of Grimes and Jenkins, but it's tough to prove it. (1961)

9. Edd Roush: 8000 PA at an OPS+ of 126. He's very similar to Tommy Leach, but with more peak value. (1962)

10. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher not yet elected. (1964)

11. Pete Browning: 162 OPS+ in 5315 PA. Whoa. A few more years of playing time, and he'd be up there in an elect-me spot. (1967)

12. Alejandro Oms: A tough nut to crack, but I think he should go ahead of Fox.

13. Nellie Fox: Slightly below average offensively, but those 10,000 PA count for a lot in my book. His range factor of 10% above league average counts for a lot, too. (1971)

14. Reggie Smith: 137 OPS+ in 8050 PA. His five seasons with an OPS+ of 150 or more give him the edge over other HoVG outfielders. (1988)

15. Jim Kaat: Not much peak, but 20+ seasons of above average pitching will get you on my ballot. I'm looking at you, Bucky Walters and Carl Mays.

The most overlooked player eligible:
18. Mickey Vernon: Vernon only made one ballot in 1989--he'll likely move up on to my ballot in the upcoming backlog years. He played 17 seasons, plus missed 2 war years. He had an OPS+ of 130 or higher 5 times. He was a very good fielder, with a range factor 5% higher than the league average. He was in the top 10 for MVP voting three times. I think he compares well with Keith Hernandez and Steve Garvey, both interesting upcoming candidates. If you're going to put those guys on your ballot, I suggest you take another look at Vernon.

Intentionally left of my ballot:
23. Ken Boyer: Boyer is in position to be the top holdover on the 1991 ballot. I don't think he should be elected. Why not? I do give him some credit for playing third base, but in a medium-length career (~14 seasons) he had only 2 seasons with an OPS+ above 130. Not a great career or a great peak. Take away his 1964 MVP award (which could easily have gone to Frank Robinson, Willie Mays, or Joe Torre), and Boyer is no more than the 2nd-best NL third baseman of the '60s. And I think Santo is well ahead of him.

26. Jimmy Wynn: If I gave nickname credit, Wynn might make my ballot. But compared to Reggie Smith, Wynn has a slightly shorter career, a slightly lower peak, and is a little farther from being the best in his league at his position. It's close, but it's a 12-slot difference on the "very good" part of the ballot where player values are very close together.

28. Dobie Moore: It's remarkable that a guy with this short a career is so close to my ballot. He'll get a little closer, but probably will never make it to my top 15.
   35. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:09 PM (#2242303)
That makes me reluctant to challenge his ballot.

If challenge means disallowing his ballot, I agree, Daryn. As much as his placement of Morgan bothers me, yest is a long-time voter in good standing who has helped me out in the Plaque Room numerous times. Besides, do we want to create an appearance of skewing the results to a more favorable outcome?
   36. DavidFoss Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:10 PM (#2242304)
or the gambler

I thought he was talking about Kenny Rogers for a second there. :-)
   37. DavidFoss Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:17 PM (#2242312)
yest's ballots don't shock me anymore. Its been 47 ballots since he first floored me with his Traynor over Charleston way back in '43. Over the years, I've built up immunity to the shock. I don't know if that's good or bad. :-)

It can still be quite deflating seeing a possible unanimous or unanimous-elect-me-vote election come crashing down Monday seeing his ballot though. If yest posted a prelim to prepare us and give us a few days to post rebuttals, then that might be better. Not that high of a percentage of people post prelims though (I don't so I can't judge) and it wouldn't really be fair to require it just for yest. Perhaps as a courtesy? :-)
   38. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:21 PM (#2242315)
In the end, Morgan will probably wind up with 99% of the vote, which still kicks the HOF's butt. :-)
   39. CraigK Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:30 PM (#2242321)
1. Joe Morgan- when pretty much every single sabermetric stats shows you in at least the top 3 of all time in your position (.310 eQa, 132 OPS+, 5.91 RC/27, this from a second baseman), then yes, you're pretty much HoF material.

2. Jim Palmer- Dominant. 4.03 defense-independent ERA, 125 ERA+, pitched 19 years as the ace for a team that was in the pennant race and won 8 division titles, went to 5 World Series and won 3 of them. (No bonus points for the Jockeys ad; where's the mindbleach?)

3. Fergie Jenkins- The prototypical control pitcher; ERA+ isn't much, but he played over half in career in noted pitcher's parks Wrigley Field and Fenway Park. Only pitcher with >3000 K's and <1000 BB's, of course. Would be inner-circle if he could have stopped giving up so many homers.

4. Jimmy Wynn- Oh, what could have been; if he'd been born thirty years later, a) we would have known of park effects a lot better, and b) he'd get a few seasons of hitting 50+ bombs in EnrAstMaid park. BPro says he'd hit 400 homers and slug .513 in a context-neutral environment.

5. Lou Brock- little bit of a pet choice, but, in my mind, a very, very rich man's Juan Pierre with more power; translated stats of ~230 HRs and .301/354/456 averages. Oh, and those 900 SBs, of course.

6. Frank Howard- Poor guy; another Jimmy Wynn type candidate of a man who was screwed by circumstances. Heck, had he been born just ten years later, he could have DH'ed and extended his career significantly. (Also, he could have probably played in slightly better hitter's parks than Dodger Field and RFK.) BPro's stats love him; 470 career translated HRs and a .288/.367/.570 translated averages with a .300+ eQa.

7. Bucky Walters- the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers had a story about him; short career, but great peak. 3.68 translated ERA and almost 2000 translated K's in basically only 14 season's worth of pitching.

8. George Van Haltren- Come on; the guy retired in 1901, died in 1945, and we're discussing him in a 1990 ballot. Good for a long time (.280 eQa from age 21-37), well above average in OPS+ his entire career minus his first and last seasons.

9. Addie Joss- what Albert Pujols would be if he pitched, played ten seasons, and died of meningitis at 30; pitched like Pedro Martinez '99 in all his seasons; a career ERA that begins with a 1 is awfully hard to ignore.

10. Ernie Lombardi- 1,800 hits , a 125 ERA+, and a .300 BA from a catcher? I'll take it. God knows how he'd hit if was faster than January molasses. (Also, the translated stats almost double his career homerun output from 190 to 360. Whoa.)



And that's my first ballot. How bad did I screw up?
   40. yest Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2242326)
pretty bad for
1. there's supposed to be 15 spots
2. Jimmy Wynn's on your ballot :")
   41. CraigK Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:46 PM (#2242350)
Fifteen? Okay:

11. Nellie Fox- Really good player; 94 OPS+ and 2700 hits and GG defense, David Eckstein on speed, basically. :)

12. Quincy Trouppe - really good NeL catcher; best in Negro League not named Josh Gibson, IMO.

13. Chuck Klein - Great player, yes, but those 300 homers and .550 slugging average just scream "park effects"; come on, I could probably hit at least .225 in a park that's just 300 down the RF line.

14. Burleigh Grimes- Good, but not great; he was above average in his career and could pitch his arm out, but not too much else.

15. Ken Boyer- If Ken had Clete's glove (or Clete had Ken's bat), said player would be in Hall; Ken's 5.8 RC/27 and 116 ERA+ just good enough to get on the ballot.
   42. DavidFoss Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:46 PM (#2242351)
And that's my first ballot. How bad did I screw up?

Yeah, yest is right.

Its top 15. You also should mention who from the previous year's top ten you are omitting and give reasons why.

First ballots are often posted to the discussion thread while we sort out these types of details. We often ask a lot of questions of newcomers as well.

As for the reasons for omission and the replies to the questions for newcomers. We're not forcing views upon you and forcing you to conform to our consensus. We're a pretty diverse group here. We're just checking that you've put a lot of thought into this understand the source of your disagreements.
   43. CraigK Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:50 PM (#2242359)

As for the reasons for omission and the replies to the questions for newcomers. We're not forcing views upon you and forcing you to conform to our consensus. We're a pretty diverse group here. We're just checking that you've put a lot of thought into this understand the source of your disagreements.


Yeah, I've read it forever and I'm okay with sabermetrics (I know what most of them are, at least) .

What I've gotten from the Hall of Merit is that you try to take away or at least diminish park advantages, time advantages, etc. (eg. Chuck Klein in the Baker Bowl and Jimmy Wynn in the AstroDome) and try to build a level playing field. (Which is why I relied heavily on the translated stats.)

I'll keep all the comments in mind; I'll try to do better on the next one, I promise.
   44. TomH Posted: November 20, 2006 at 08:56 PM (#2242372)
The status of 'unanimous' entry to the HoM don't matter much, given that it depends so much on timing.
We require a few simple things; clarity, examining each individual, respect for all eras. If someone prodcues a ballot that says Nellie Fox > Joe Morgan, based on defensive difference > offensive difference, that will draw lots of fire, but it is by no means unconstitutional. I mean, Ozzie Smith is the #1 alltime shortstop to some, and unworthy of the hall of fame by others; both are borderline defensible (but please don't make me run the numbers to show it today).

As to Morgan vs Fox: Joe Morgan was by my figuring worth about 500 runs more with his bat and legs than Fox. There is no way I can see Fox being that much better with the glove.
   45. TomH Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:05 PM (#2242383)
Early voting, holiday coming soon. May Thanksgiving cause each of us to grumble a little less often this week and go out of our way to appreciate those around us.
1990 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan?s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for ?peak?. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Joe Morgan {new}
Of the best 4 second basemen who ever played the game, three played 1895-1930, and one in the 60s-80s. You can make an argument for any of the 4, but 2B was a lot different 90 years ago, so my vote on my all-time team goes to Little Joe.
I am sorry he?s such a dolt as a commentator.
2- Ferguson Jenkins (4) [4]
3- Jim Palmer {new}
Overrated. But still really good.
4- Jake Beckley (5) [8T]
Great career.
5- Ken Boyer (6) [3]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader.
6- John McGraw (7) [42]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders.
7- Bucky Walters (8) [15]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
8- George Van Haltren (9) [18]
A career of Three Hundred and Eighty Win Shares when translated to a full schedule. Our other bazillion backlog outfielders fall well short of that.
9- Bob Johnson (10) [17]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
10- Frank Chance (11) [62T]
A great player on great teams.
11- Dick Redding (12) [13]
12- Charlie Keller (13) [14]
MiL credit and a pinch of great World Series stats gets him above the OF jumble.
13- Burleigh Grimes (15) [24]
14- Louis Tiant (14) [28]
The pitcher I enjoyed watching the most.
15- Jimmy Wynn (off) [7]
He doesn?t look much different than Smith or Bonds or Oms, and how many outfielders do
we want to elect? I?m lukewarm.

disclosures:

Edd Roush ? league quality adjustment bumps him lower

Pete Browning ? cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman.

Dobie Moore is in the top 30; considering I?m more of a career voter, that?s a high complement.

Nellie Fox is around 35; he isn?t any different than Aparicio, Rizzuto, Maranville, or Bancroft. I?d rather take Bill Monroe than any of them.

Quincy Trouppe is at #25 for me. The anecdotal evidence, which is one piece of the puzzle, weighs him down some.
   46. karlmagnus Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#2242384)
Craig K., if Brock, why not beckley, who was 21 OPS+ points better? If you like park effects, did you adjust Beckley's very low HR/triples ratio for the huge size of his home park while in Pittsburgh (or Pittsburg as he would have spelt it?)

Just a gentle nudge.... Otherwise, welcome, albeit with gritted teeth if you don't recognize the excellence of Eagle Eye!
   47. CraigK Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:15 PM (#2242396)
Re: Beckley

Yes, he's good, but I think that a lot of those hits came because the parks he played in was so darn huge; 400/450/400 for Exposition, where he played half his career (Can't find anything on League Park II, for Cincinnati) IMO, a lot of people could hit well (in terms of singles, doubles, and triples; not HRs, of course) there.

Still, damn good player and getting on my ballot next year (which I will post in the discussion thread first; I've learned my lesson.)
   48. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:20 PM (#2242408)
Another reason why new voters should post on the discussion thread is that then I don't have to take up space on the ballot thread asking them, "What about Charlie Keller?". Very high peak that was sustained for quite a while. Deserves 1.75 (or thereabouts) years of war credit and one, if not two, years of MiL credit. I woudl have ot say that he was better than Wynn (who I also like). Hey, if karl gets to do it, so do I!

Oh and we should move discussion with Craig over to the discussion thread that this point.
   49. rawagman Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:23 PM (#2242414)
While I disagree with his ballotting for the most part, I can understand yest's views on defense. I try not judge a player's offensive capacity based on his defensive positioning. At some point, it enters the consideration, but I try not to let it overide my desire to find complete ballplayers.
In spite of the lofty heights in which I've placed Gavvy Cravath, I do require that my players show at least aptitude at the glove in their defensive position.
I have yet to find the defensive metric that I can beleive in fully, but that's not why I'm writing here.
Defense is important. Maybe more so thana runs saved analysis will tell us. Being a superb defender is an asset to a team that stretches beyond the numbers. Anyone who plays the game can tell you this. One superb defender makes his teammates better.
That out of the way, I figure yest still places too much rational stock in the value of pure BA. Not that OPS+, or BWA should be the be-all/end-all, but BA is not thorough enough.
   50. ronw Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:25 PM (#2242418)
1990 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Joe Morgan 26.2 bWS/700PA, 9 MVP, 16 AS. On the short list for best 2B of all time.

2. Jim Palmer 23.6 pWS/300IP, 7 CY, 10 AS. There can only be one #1.

3. Ferguson Jenkins 21.3 pWS/300IP, 5 CY, 8 AS. Must wait one whole year.

4. Dick Redding If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

5. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

6. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

7. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

8. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

9. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

10. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

11. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

12. Luis Tiant – 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

13. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

14. Lou Brock - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds pretty good to me.

15. Charlie Keller. 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit, he probably should be at least tied with Kiner.

16. Jimmy Wynn. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

17. Ben Taylor. I’m having trouble between Ben and Jake.

18. Jake Beckley. 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

19. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

20. Bob Elliott. 20.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. Also has appeared on my ballot before.

21. Quincy Trouppe. I’m have come around on him.

22. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Definitely in the consideration set.

23. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Better than I expected.


LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Missing top 10

Ken Boyer – 17.9 bWS/700 PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Not quite enough from a hitting position for me. I like Bob Elliott and Sal Bando better.

Nellie Fox – 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Wouldn’t be a horrible selection, but I like a little more hitting, and prefer Doyle/Childs to Nellie.

Edd Roush – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. Like Charley Jones, maybe needs holdout credit. I haven’t been giving it to him.

New Notables

Ken Singleton – 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Wow, he was pretty effective. Too bad he was a corner outfielder.

Amos Otis – 18.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. Not quite there.

Rick Monday – 20.8 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 6 AS. No credit for the flag thing.

Greg Luzinski – 21.2 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. Almost in consideration.

Bob Watson – 21.3 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 4 AS. No credit for the millionth run thing. (With all the revisions since then, is that still correct, or is it really someone else?)

Tug McGraw – 31.2 pWS/300IP, 0 MVP, 5 AS. Very effective lefty reliever.
   51. Daryn Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:28 PM (#2242420)
Fox ahead of Morgan is philosophically justifiable, if you think there was a defensive chasm, which yest alludes to.

But what about practical justifications?

We can niggle over the details, but the distance between Joe Morgan and Nellie Fox as offensive players (38 points OPS+) is similar to the distance between Jimmy Wynn (128 OPS+) and Ty Cobb (167 OPS+). If Ty Cobb were an average or even a below average centerfielder, how good woudl Jimmy Wynn's defense need to be for him to overcome that kind of difference in offensive performance?


I agree with you, Chris. I place very little emphasis on defence because I think the difference in defensive ability between the great and the below average is actually quite small in terms of runs saved. I was just saying, philosophically, someone could disagree with that, and could even legitimately do so behind the protection of the mantra that defensive statistics are not a good gauge of defensive ability/value.

Craig K you still need to make coments on Dobie Moore, Edd Roush and Pete Browning.
   52. karlmagnus Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:30 PM (#2242424)
CraigK., my congratulations. You've actually said something new and non-offensive about Jake B., which I didn't think was possible!

Interesting the effect of huge parks and soggy baseballs. They obviously deeply suppressed home runs, but I wouldn't have thought they raised batting average so much as suppressing OBP, because the pitcher wouldn't worry so much about grooving one down the pike with the bases empty (because a HR was near-impossible) so wouldn't nibble at the corners and would give up fewer walks.

Also, I would have thought that the ball was dead enough that there would never be a left-field-at-Fenway effect, with the fielder playing closer in because the fence was close, so BA shouldn't be much affected by large vs. small park, except for maybe the Baker Bowl. A huge park would presumably increase doubles and triples at the expense of singles, but wouldn't increase singles, because the outfielders wouldn't play so far out that a tap through the infield was a single, however large the park.
   53. CraigK Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:44 PM (#2242443)
Combining all my posts with my reasoning for Moore, Roush, and Browning; #39 and #41 can be deleted, to clean up the thread a little.



1. Joe Morgan- when pretty much every single sabermetric stats shows you in at least the top 3 of all time in your position (.310 eQa, 132 OPS+, 5.91 RC/27, this from a second baseman), then yes, you're pretty much HoF material.

2. Jim Palmer- Dominant. 4.03 defense-independent ERA, 125 ERA+, pitched 19 years as the ace for a team that was in the pennant race and won 8 division titles, went to 5 World Series and won 3 of them. (No bonus points for the Jockeys ad; where's the mindbleach?)

3. Fergie Jenkins- The prototypical control pitcher; ERA+ isn't much, but he played over half in career in noted pitcher's parks Wrigley Field and Fenway Park. Only pitcher with >3000 K's and <1000 BB's, of course. Would be inner-circle if he could have stopped giving up so many homers.

4. Jimmy Wynn- Oh, what could have been; if he'd been born thirty years later, a) we would have known of park effects a lot better, and b) he'd get a few seasons of hitting 50+ bombs in EnrAstMaid park. BPro says he'd hit 400 homers and slug .513 in a context-neutral environment.

5. Lou Brock- little bit of a pet choice, but, in my mind, a very, very rich man's Juan Pierre with more power; translated stats of ~230 HRs and .301/354/456 averages. Oh, and those 900 SBs, of course.

6. Frank Howard- Poor guy; another Jimmy Wynn type candidate of a man who was screwed by circumstances. Heck, had he been born just ten years later, he could have DH'ed and extended his career significantly. (Also, he could have probably played in slightly better hitter's parks than Dodger Field and RFK.) BPro's stats love him; 470 career translated HRs and a .288/.367/.570 translated averages with a .300+ eQa.

7. Bucky Walters- the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers had a story about him; short career, but great peak. 3.68 translated ERA and almost 2000 translated K's in basically only 14 season's worth of pitching.

8. George Van Haltren- Come on; the guy retired in 1901, died in 1945, and we're discussing him in a 1990 ballot. Good for a long time (.280 eQa from age 21-37), well above average in OPS+ his entire career minus his first and last seasons.

9. Addie Joss- what Albert Pujols would be if he pitched, played ten seasons, and died of meningitis at 30; pitched like Pedro Martinez '99 in all his seasons; a career ERA that begins with a 1 is awfully hard to ignore.

10. Ernie Lombardi- 1,800 hits , a 125 ERA+, and a .300 BA from a catcher? I'll take it. God knows how he'd hit if was faster than January molasses. (Also, the translated stats almost double his career homerun output from 190 to 360. Whoa.)

11. Nellie Fox- Really good player; 94 OPS+ and 2700 hits and GG defense, David Eckstein on speed, basically. :)

12. Quincy Trouppe - really good NeL catcher; best in Negro League not named Josh Gibson, IMO.

13. Chuck Klein - Great player, yes, but those 300 homers and .550 slugging average just scream "park effects"; come on, I could probably hit at least .225 in a park that's just 300 down the RF line.

14. Burleigh Grimes- Good, but not great; he was above average in his career and could pitch his arm out, but not too much else.

15. Ken Boyer- If Ken had Clete's glove (or Clete had Ken's bat), said player would be in Hall; Ken's 5.8 RC/27 and 116 ERA+ just good enough to get on the ballot.

---OFF BALLOT---

Dobie Moore: Good, but I really don't like voting for NeLers unless they totally blow you away stat-wise (eg. Josh Gibson, Oscar Charleston, Satchel Paige, Turkey Stearnes) or, failing that, have enough anecdotal evidence (since that's pretty much what we have to work with; sabermetrics aren't much help in a case like the Negro Leagues) like Smokey Joe and Cum Posey, et al.)

Edd Roush- good, but benefited hugely from the lively-ball era: all I see is batting average with a modicum of power and XBH ability.

Pete Browning - Peak voter's ideal, but his career was basically from 21 to 30; no Addie Joss credit.


   54. ronw Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:50 PM (#2242451)
The greatest thing ever would be if yest were really Bill James or Pete Palmer just posting controversial ballots to mess with our heads.

I'm glad the vote stands. I would have to rethink whether I wanted to continue to be part of a project that disallowed a ballot based on a controversial stance.

Plus, as far as unanimity, I thought a few people had Palmer over Morgan in the Ballot discussion thread anyway.
   55. sunnyday2 Posted: November 20, 2006 at 09:59 PM (#2242459)
>Dobie Moore: Good, but I really don't like voting for NeLers unless they totally blow you away stat-wise

Well, Dobie Moore is/was a .365 career hitter. I don't know that there were more than a couple guys who were better. And he was neither a slappy hitter, not a cement glove.
   56. sunnyday2 Posted: November 20, 2006 at 10:01 PM (#2242460)
How about if some of those ballots are from BBWAA MVP voters messing with us? You know, all black ink all the time. Or from Joe Morgan himself? yest of course wouldn't be that particular alter ego.
   57. Mark Donelson Posted: November 20, 2006 at 10:06 PM (#2242468)
Or from Joe Morgan himself?

Maybe yest is the ghost of Pie Traynor. (He does kind of have that Jack Keefe thing going.)
   58. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 20, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2242481)
Joe Morgan would definitely have Joe Morgan first.
   59. Chris Cobb Posted: November 20, 2006 at 10:51 PM (#2242505)
I'm glad the vote stands. I would have to rethink whether I wanted to continue to be part of a project that disallowed a ballot based on a controversial stance.

I would ask for a bit more precision here. Yest's stance is not controversial: we are not and (I expect) will not debate whether or not Nellie Fox is better than Joe Morgan. Everyone in the electorate (I suspect) agrees that his assessment of Morgan is incorrect, and in no small way, either. The controversy arises when someone, in this case, me, steps forward to ask whether or not it would be appropriate to disallow a ballot because everyone agrees that it is incorrect in no small way. The suggestion is controversial.

I don't like provoking controversy, and I don't like taking the step of impugning another voter's analysis of merit, so I will withdraw the suggestion. The electorate has never wanted to go this route, and on the whole I expet that the HoM process is the more pleasant for it. But I could wish that the level of responsibility that voters feel to justify their choices in ways that the rest of the electorate can accept were somewhat higher than it is.
   60. OCF Posted: November 20, 2006 at 10:55 PM (#2242508)
Craig K: Your ballot seems to have a lot in common with mine. To get it even closer, perhaps I could suggest Bridges instead of Joss, Doyle instead of Fox, and Cepeda or Cash instead of Klein?
   61. Adam Schafer Posted: November 20, 2006 at 11:02 PM (#2242512)
I didn't think yest's ballots would shock my anymore, but this one did. I agree with all who say let it stand. I disagree with his placement of Morgan, but pat him on the back for doing what he himself views as correct, and being able to defend it, stand behind it and take all the heat he recieves for doing it. If he or someone else did ballots like this and were not able to give any good justification for doing so, that would be a different story.

1. Joe Morgan - doesn't need an explanation.

2. Jim Palmer - more overrated than I initially thought, but no less deserving of a spot in either Hall

3. Charley Jones - Performed outstandingly against his peers, I give credit for when he was blacklisted.

4. Gavy Cravath - did he take advantage of a hitters park? yes. the rest of his teammates weren't putting up those kind of numbers though. I agree the park helped him, but I give him props for taking advantage of the situation he was given.

5. Edd Roush - I give him credit for 1930

6. Nellie Fox - a great second baseman

7. Orlando Cepeda - similar to Oliva. Not GREAT but consistently very very good

8. Cecil Travis - this is of course giving him very ample war credit at his pre-war level of play

9. Bucky Walters - not much on career, but just enough mixed with his peak to squeak by

10. Tony Oliva - see Cepeda

11. Don Newcombe - after giving him credit for years lost, he has outstanding career value

12. Vern Stephens - I still can't believe my system loves him so much

13. Fergie Jenkins - spots 13 - 17 are very close. I've always liked Fergie and would love to see him inducted.

14. Bobby Veach - see Vern Stepehns

15. Chuck Klein - see Cravath

Jack Quinn
Ernie Lombardi
Lefty Gomez
Johnny Pesky
Quincey Trouppe
Roger Bresnahan
Charlie Keller
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque
Hack Wilson
Hugh Duffy
Thurman Munson
Jake Beckley
Levi Meyerle
Burleigh Grimes
Carl Mays
Larry Doyle
Dobie Moore
Dizzy Dean
Frank Howard
Pete Browning
Bob Elliot
Tommy Bridges
Wally Schang
David Orr
Johnny Sain
Bob Johnson
Addie Joss
Fred Dunlap
Luis Aparicio
Lave Cross
Duke Farrell
John McGraw
Harvey Kuenn
Stu Miller
Walker Cooper
Lon Warneke
Norm Cash
Heinie Manush
Catfish Hunter
Ken Boyer
Mike Marshall
Al Rosen
Gene Tenace
Vic Willis
Deacon McGuire
Herman Long
Urban Shocker
Ed Williamson
Sam Rice
Mike Tiernan
Ginger Beaumont
Lou Brock
Jim McCormick
Tommy Bond
Dom DiMaggio
George Kell
Pie Traynor
Mickey Welch
Elston Howard
Tommy Henrich
Ed Konetchy
Mickey Vernon
Henry Larkin
Reggie Smith
Kiki Cuyler
Ed Yost
Gus Weyhing
Jimmy Ryan
Gil Hodges
Bobby Murcer
Sparky Lyle
Eddie Cicotte
Stuffy McInnis
Tommy Leach
Lefty O'Doul
Charley Root
Jack Daubert
Buddy Lewis
Dave Bancroft
Lloyd Waner
Jack Chesbro
Herb Pennock
Vada Pinson
Wilbur Cooper
Tony Lazzeri
Ken Singleton - not that impressed
Luis Tiant
Tony Mullane
Roy Thomas
Jim Kaat - I really thought he'd be higher.
Phil Rizzuto
Denny McClain
Claude Passeau
Wilbur Wood
Rabbit Maranville
Dizzy Trout
Joe Wood
Sal Bando
George Van Haltren
Mel Harder
Bobby Bonds
Boog Powell
Tom York
Mike Cuellar
Jimmy Wynn
Dick Bartell
Deacon Phillippe
Wally Berger
Lee May
Freddie Fitzsimmons
Rube Marquard
Virgil Trucks
Milt Pappas
Mickey Lolich
Dave McNally
Amos Otis - I'm a lifelong Royals fan (stop laughing), so he is one of my favorites
Jesse Tannehill
Johnny Vander Meer
Sad Sam Jones
Jack Powell
Bert Campaneris
Nap Rucker
Baby Doll Jacobson
Hal Schumacher
Earl Whitehill
Tug McGraw
Joe Judge
John Hiller
   62. OCF Posted: November 20, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#2242515)
Through the first 14 voters, yest does not have the lowest consensus score.
   63. Cblau Posted: November 20, 2006 at 11:07 PM (#2242518)
Chris Cobb:
Most of the players on your ballot are ranked according to the score you give them. So I've been wondering, why is Rabbit Maranville way below the spot his score would earn him?
   64. sunnyday2 Posted: November 20, 2006 at 11:21 PM (#2242525)
>Through the first 14 voters, yest does not have the lowest consensus score.

Well, I can see that he is tied with daryn, karl and rico for having the fewest players on-ballot from last year's top 15 (five). (Obviously nobody is going to have all 15.)

I was afraid O was talking about me until I remembered I haven't voted yet.
   65. DL from MN Posted: November 20, 2006 at 11:42 PM (#2242555)
1990 ballot

1) Joe Morgan - Best 2B ever? At least the best since integration, which is saying a lot.
2) Ferguson Jenkins - slight career advantage over...
3) Jim Palmer - terrific in big games, his postseason record would place him above Jenkins but I don't consider postseason accomplishments on the first ballot.
4) Bob Johnson - We elected the wrong outfielders from his era.
5) Luis Tiant - Compares well to the pitchers from the 50's and early 60's we inducted and all those in the backlog. Doesn't compare as well to 70's bubble but they are piling up on the top of the ballot.
6) Norm Cash - Very good glove, very good bat, good career length, a couple WOW seasons.
7) Jake Beckley - Norm Cash with more career but without the WOW.
8) Quincy Trouppe - Top catcher for an underrepresented era, better than Bresnahan (another top C for era).
9) Reggie Smith - Gets credit for time in Japan which keeps him in the top 10.
10) Tommy Bridges - We're short on war era pitching. He looks like another one in the mold of Tiant and Pierce.
11) Virgil Trucks - Needs war credit to get up here but he had some terrific seasons.
12) Jim Wynn - If he had been a slightly better defender he would slide above Reggie Smith.
13) Ken Boyer - Best 3B available and we're short of 3B. Very good glove and very good bat. I like well rounded players.
14) Edd Roush - Just slightly behind Jim Wynn, similar value from dissimilar players.
15) Orlando Cepeda - Great bat, bad glove.
16-20) Dutch Leonard, Bob Elliott, Jack Quinn, Bus Clarkson, Charlie Keller
21-25) Luke Easter, Dick Redding, Vic Willis, Dave Bancroft, Urban Shocker
26-30) Frank Howard, Bobby Bonds, Gavy Cravath, Hilton Smith, Alejandro Oms
31-34) Johnny Evers, Dizzy Trout, Ken Singleton, Ben Taylor

41) Dobie Moore - held back by short career. I have pegged him as equal to Ernie Banks and I'd vote Banks at 41 if his career had ended at the same time. I wouldn't have voted for Jennings either.
51) Pete Browning - bad glove, I think outfielders had it easy then.
54) Charley Jones - Not enough seasons even with credit, better than Chuck Klein.
99) Nellie Fox - not as much glove as Dave Bancroft, less bat relative to position. Just not enough bat.
   66. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 20, 2006 at 11:50 PM (#2242562)
Through the first 14 voters, yest does not have the lowest consensus score.

After 18, he's tied for that honor.
   67. Chris Cobb Posted: November 21, 2006 at 12:59 AM (#2242614)
Most of the players on your ballot are ranked according to the score you give them. So I've been wondering, why is Rabbit Maranville way below the spot his score would earn him?

Because looking at Maranville from any perspective other than WARP1 doesn't justify ranking him higher. A few elections ago, there was a considerable effort to construct a view of Maranville and other high-defense shortstops that combined Runs Saved Above Average at position with Batting Runs Above Replacement Position over the player's prime, which I take to be a pretty good measure, but one that I don't have the data to calculate independently. It shows Maranville to be a competitive candidate, but not one who is obviously ahead of the pack, which matches pretty closely with the win shares evaluation. In general, I find that giving equal weight to WARP and win shares gives high-defense players a justified boost, but in this case (and also in the case of Herman Long) I can't accept WARP's conclusions. Its fielding replacement level is just too low.

So I rank Maranville just a little bit above where he would rank if I were using only the win shares half of my system.

To put it another way: the only argument I had for ranking Maranville higher was trust in WARP's FRAR. With all the other measures giving him a different profile, I decided that I couldn't reasonably sustain such an argument. I leave the number as it is to show what my system shows, so that it will indicate (to those curious about such things) that I am making a subjective adjustment.

As you can see, I make a number of small subjective adjustments in arranging my ballot, but the adjustment of Maranville is the largest.
   68. Daryn Posted: November 21, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2242621)
Chris,

While we are looking at your ballot, I see one pitcher in the top 20 (excluding the two who will be elected this year). Does this bother you at all? You say you will be moving your #2 pitcher (Redding) down; how about giving Kaat or Grimes a positional boost?

Signed,

Guy With 7 Pitchers on his Ballot
   69. DL from MN Posted: November 21, 2006 at 01:20 AM (#2242628)
Actually, I'd like to hear why Chris has Tommy Bridges so low.
   70. SWW Posted: November 21, 2006 at 01:20 AM (#2242629)
Some people get to share their birthdays with legends of the game. Mantle. Williams. Ruth. Me? Kenesaw Mountain Landis. Legendary, to be sure, but not exactly what I had in mind.

<u>1990 Ballot</u>
1) Joe Leonard Morgan
Another guy with a legitimate claim to the title of Best at His Position Ever. It was easy to be great with the Reds, not quite as easy with the Astros. And there’s no small irony in using statistics to extol his virtues; I enjoy “Fire Joe Morgan”, but I like “Induct Joe Morgan” a great deal more.. 15th on Bill James Top 100. 37th on SABR Top 100. 41st on Ken Shouler Top 100. 49th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 60th on Sporting News Top 100. 41st on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) James Alvin Palmer
Very close to Jenkins. More outstanding years compared to his league (for example, 5 Top 10s in WS, compared to 2 for Jenkins) is one of the items that gives him the edge. The fact that his attempted comeback failed also helps his career numbers. 57th on SABR Top 100. 64th on Sporting News Top 100. 64th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 90th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 48th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Ferguson Arthur Jenkins – “Fergie”
Of course, Jenkins didn’t have the benefit of spending his entire career with the Orioles of the 60s & 70s. An excellent career, and a worthy inductee. Hail the Great White North. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 93rd on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. Perilously close to cracking the top 20 one of these days. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
6) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
7) Carl William Mays
The career numbers come out the same with Luis Tiant, but Mays has better seasons and more milestones. Comes out better on ink, too. I wonder if Tiant is going to become my new Billy Pierce: a better-loved pitcher who Mays outperforms in my analysis.
8) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position. I have him ahead of Bando, but I’m not sure he’s this far ahead. That deserves another look. 5 Top 10 WS seasons are nothing at which to sneeze.
9) Hugh Duffy
Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time. I dropped him a bit, though, because the peakishness of his career does not thrill me, when compared with Mays, Boyer, and Freehan.
10) Louis Clark Brock
It’s possible that WS overrate him, and players like George Van Haltren or Mickey Welch have comparable career WS and don’t appear on my ballot. However, I remain a career voter at heart, and he ranks well over the long run. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons (134 and 3, respectively) far outstrip some of the guys he’s being compared to, like Jake Beckley and Sam Rice. I’m still listening to everyone’s arguments, but I feel he’s earned a spot on my ballot. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
11) Edd J Roush
I’ve always liked his career stats, and the recent discussion of time missed helps to reinforce my earlier view that he is a worthy candidate. So many center fielders, though.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Like so many of the very good Negro League stars, very difficult to get a handle on. Remains this high thanks to my support for Mays, who has strikingly similar arcs.
13) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
14) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Moving him up a notch. An impressive career considering his late start, and more of a standout on his team than Tommie Leach, who he jumps over. Of the guys who are all career and no peak, he’s the one I would induct first.
15) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but there’s Rice right up there. Stronger prime sets him apart, but he’s not especially outstanding, which concerns me.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
James Sherman Wynn
I’ve got a lot of center fielders jockeying for position on my ballot. Wynn fares better than I expected, with 6 Top 10 WS finishes and a solid career. A little flat, but his similarity to the newly-ascendent Roush is helping his cause.
Walter Moore – “Dobie”
Reminds me of Hughie Jennings. I wasn’t that fond of his candidacy, either. An unfortunately short career, but a short career nonetheless.
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
   71. Howie Menckel Posted: November 21, 2006 at 02:26 AM (#2242668)
I think any discussion of yest's ballot being challenged should center around a lack of good faith, lack of research, deliberate frivolity, etc.
Doesn't apply, says the guy who may be the all-time consensus picker (I prefer to think of that as the electorate following MY cues, thank you very much!).

That said, I do think that when 40-50 people question someone's love of singles and disinterest in walks, it's worth thinking twice about whether the offbeat system really makes any sense. Ditto for the fascination with putouts.

Still, yest has done a tireless job boosting the HOM plaques, which I appreciate.
   72. karlmagnus Posted: November 21, 2006 at 03:23 AM (#2242688)
I think this Delphi decision making requires yest's singles and my Caruthers/Beckley (or Leever/Cicotte) fetishes in order to work properly; some candidates who have been elected like Waddell and Childs have been REALLY deep in the backlog until some eccentric voter has found the argument that people suddenly find convincing, at which point they have swept back into favor and election. In oreder to maximise the team's chance of getting the offbeat argument that proves a winner, you have to put up with the flotsam of offbeat arguments that are less convincing. Natrrowing the discussion down throws out wheat as well as chaff, and is therefore sub-optimal.
   73. Chris Cobb Posted: November 21, 2006 at 04:13 AM (#2242723)
Re my choices on pitchers: see discussion thread.
   74. sunnyday2 Posted: November 21, 2006 at 02:04 PM (#2242821)
1990

1. Joe Morgan (new, PHoM 1990)

2. Jim Palmer (new, PHoM 1990)

3. Dobie Moore (3-1-1, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

4. Ferguson Jenkins (5-new, PHoM 1990)

5. Edd Roush (6-3-2, PHoM 1976)—no apologies for peak of 38-33-30

6. Larry Doyle (8-5-5, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Edd Roush

7. Pete Browning (7-4-3, PHoM 1961)

8. Addie Joss (9-6-6, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available, another lost cause but I can’t kick the habit

9. Nellie Fox (10-7-7, PHoM 1971)—one of the most valuable <100 OPS+ players ever

10. Charley Jones (11-8-8, PHoM 1921)—trying to abandon Charley for years, just can’t do it

11. Charlie Keller (12-9-9, PHoM 1985)—“So, are you a peak voter or not?” “Yes, I am” “So, why the hell aren’t you supporting Charlie Keller?” “Well, I am, now, finally”

12. Orlando Cepeda (14-11-10, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard and Cravath

13. Phil Rizzuto (15-12-16)—better than Bancroft or Lundy? Definitely maybe.

14. Reggie Smith (13-10-new, PHoM 1988)--underrated

15. Gavvy Cravath (16-13-19)

Close

(15a. Bobby Doerr [16a-13a-16a])
16. Frank Howard (17-14-15)
17. Ed Williamson (19-18-20, PHoM 1924)
18. Don Newcombe (20-19-28)
19. Dick Lundy (21-42-43)
(19a. Joe Sewell [19a-16a-18a])
20. Tommy Bond (24-29-29, PHoM 1929)

21. Dick Redding (22-16-13, PHoM 1971)
22. Elston Howard (23-17-18)
(22a. Willie Keeler [27a-27a-25a])
23. Jim Wynn (25-43-44)
24. Eddie Cicotte (18-15-12)
25. Bucky Walters (26-20-27)
26. Dizzy Dean (27-21-14)
27. Vic Willis (41-42-37)
28. Dave Bancroft (42-53-53)
29. Ken Boyer (29-29-23)
30. Norm Cash (30-30-22)
   75. sunnyday2 Posted: November 21, 2006 at 02:09 PM (#2242822)
Oh, Beckley is #39, all the other top 10 holdovers are in my top 30.
   76. DL from MN Posted: November 21, 2006 at 03:33 PM (#2242849)
> Some people get to share their birthdays with legends of the game. Mantle. Williams.
> Ruth. Me? Kenesaw Mountain Landis. Legendary, to be sure, but not exactly what I had
> in mind.

Me: Babe Ruth
Oldest Son: Willie Mays
Middle Son: Joe DiMaggio
Youngest Son: Joe Jackson

Wife: Walter Alston or Larry Walker, Marty Marion, Ed Ruelbach
Daughter: Diomedes Olivo, Chone Figgins

Coincidence?
   77. rawagman Posted: November 21, 2006 at 04:34 PM (#2242881)
I get Happy Jack!
   78. Happy Jack Chesbro Posted: November 21, 2006 at 04:38 PM (#2242887)
I get Happy Jack!

Woohoo! My support base is growing! This will snowball into my induction in no time!
   79. Jim Sp Posted: November 21, 2006 at 06:59 PM (#2243011)
1) Morgan--but not for the broadcaster wing.
2) Palmer--by a nose over Jenkins
3) Jenkins--pretty clearly qualified.
4) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3. PHoM 1976.
5) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. I was a WS guy but here in particular I think Warp has it right—great defense. PHoM in 1970.
6) Dobie Moore--PHoM 1985.
7) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. PHoM in 1970.
8) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
9) Keller--Added back the war credit. PHoM 1985.
10) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8.
11) Trouppe--PHoM 1988.
12) Dick Redding--PHoM 1985.
13) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1987
14) Elliott--PHoM in 1960.
15) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987.

Roush – #71 with no extra credit. I suppose if I gave him every conceivable credit for holding out he’d make it, but I’m not there yet.
Beckley #45—missing a peak. If we’re going to take another white old-timer I’d go with Jones instead.
Jones #43 with no extra credit. Extra credit would get him closer but still not there.
Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
   80. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 21, 2006 at 07:16 PM (#2243023)
Amazingly, I find myself in concert with Chris, Karl, and Howie all at once.

Several times in the last decade or so, I've called out yest. In one instance, I presented an argument that the difference in defensive abilities could not in any way close the gap between Lloyd Waner and ... Billy Williams. Later I challenged him on having Kuenn on board his ballot with the justification of Harvey's having won 2 putout titles. So here I'm absolutely with Chris.

However, I'm also with Karl. I agree that our system benefits from outlying voters in some manner.

And I agree with Howie's three points:
1) that scrapping a ballot would need to center on intent, not outcome
2) that yest makes a positive contribution elsewhere in the HOM (and, as John says, "Is a member in good standing").

But this third point is most important:

3) "When 40-50 people question someone's love of singles and disinterest in walks, it's worth [that person's] thinking twice about whether the offbeat system really makes any sense. Ditto for the fascination with putouts."

This last point returns to what Chris said, and what John intimated above: that the eccentrities in yest's rankings are not the issue, but rather his cryptic, evasive responses, compounded by his lack of interest in defending his position in a meaningful way.

The other 49 or so of us have generally responded to questioning (or criticism) by presenting our thinking and debating it beyond the superficial level. And either by accepting the need for change or by recognizing in a public fashion that we have a simple disagreement with the group. As John points out above, yest's responses have consistently lacked a dialogic quality. He has typically just presented more of the controversial information, without explaining why putouts are meaningful. Nor why singles are great. He has never (in my voting lifetime) offered any particulars as to why his system prioritizes certain on-field events over others. There almost no meta- quality to his posts at all, so it's impossible to read into them to dig out how it works.

To latch onto one of Chris's themes from above, yest has always fulfilled his duty as a voter, but he hasn't always fulfilled the spirit of conversational responsibility that our constitution is infused with, and which this project depends on. I don't care to invalidate his ballot; nor do I wish for him to discontinue voting; nor again do I wish to diminish his contribution. What I want is for him to finally elaborate at greater length about the whys and wherefores of his system; about what criteria he sorts guys by; about how he arrives at the balance of fielding and hitting that he uses; about the relative values of various on-field events; stuff like that. Things we've all hashed out publically at great length or that are at least somewhat obvious from our ballot rationales.

I'm far from the most consistent voter out there. But you can see thought-threads in my ballots: I value dominance; I value hitting over fielding in the absence of good data; I give credit; I value positional balance; I'm a little less certain on pitchers than hitters. You guys can see into my world enough that you're willing to respect our differences of opinion. I don't think yest has been that open with us, and that's why frustration with his balloting has reached this place. I hope that he might soon choose to open up his system to us and debate its merits and flaws so that we can at least have a viable discussion about it instead of his talking past us (and vise verse) as we have now.
   81. sunnyday2 Posted: November 21, 2006 at 08:03 PM (#2243048)
>yest has always fulfilled his duty as a voter, but he hasn't always fulfilled the spirit of conversational responsibility that our constitution is infused with, and which this project depends on.

If and when we start enforcing the *requirement* for some sort of explanation/commentary/justification for the ballot (the fact that several voters provide zero quantity thereof), then I'll start to worry about the quality of the conversation.
   82. mulder & scully Posted: November 21, 2006 at 08:40 PM (#2243154)
Personally, I would love to see every voter give an explanation of their ballot choices, how and why their rankings are what they are. Also, I would appreciate knowing each voter's philosophy, but having asked for that several times over the last three calendar years I know it is not going to happen.

How hard is it to write a paragraph and copy and paste it every two weeks?

Happy Thanksgiving to all the voters, the lurkers, and your respective families.
   83. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 21, 2006 at 08:43 PM (#2243159)
If and when we start enforcing the *requirement* for some sort of explanation/commentary/justification for the ballot (the fact that several voters provide zero quantity thereof), then I'll start to worry about the quality of the conversation.

If you guys want me to enforce this, I'll do what I can, but this is really Joe's bailiwick. As I have mentioned before, the best way to get the Commish's attention is to e-mail him.
   84. Al Peterson Posted: November 21, 2006 at 09:08 PM (#2243209)
1990 ballot. Big Red Machine member again elected. Joe Morgan doesn’t need our validation to know how good he was; he’ll tell you himself! The system used entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture.

1. Joe Morgan (-). Little Joe hit in a big way, adept at stealing bases, fielded well enough, just an all-around excellent player. His run in the mid70s was what great players do at their peak.

2. Jim Palmer (-). Sure defensive and run support was good for the Oriole hurler. Deflate the numbers some still leaves a HOMer. Just slightly above Jenkins.

3. Ferguson Jenkins (4). 7 time 20 game winner. Extended prime, pitched in a hitter friendly Wrigley Field. Great control, excellent K/BB ratio.

4. Dick Redding (5). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years.

5. Norm Cash (6). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though contradicts the rest of his work.

6. Tommy Leach (7). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

7. Ken Boyer (8). Like a Robinson in quality, didn’t quite play as long. The minor league credit argument is interesting since he was a pitcher part of the time down on the farm.

8. Bobby Bonds (9). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays and some people never got over it.

9. Tony Mullane (10). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

10. Dobie Moore (11). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

11. Reggie Smith (12). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup.

12. Roger Bresnahan (13). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

13. Bob Johnson (15). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

14. Bucky Walters (16). Crunched his value into a few seasons, combined solid pitching with a decent stick. Not too much of a ding for the war year discount.

15. Jimmy Ryan (17). There is something about this guy that the number crunching likes. He has a long career, had some peak years to mix in with the steady performance. Would be another 19th century player.

16-20: Mays, Oms, Welch, Poles, Browning
21-25: Rizutto, Byrd, Beckley, Munson, C Jones
26-30: Bancroft, Easter, Willis, Bartell, Shocker
31-35: Wynn, Tiant, Joss, Duffy, Ben Taylor
36-40: Luque, Cross, Schang, Brock, Grimes
41-45: Trouppe, Tenace, Lombardi, Keller, Bridges
46-50: Cicotte, F Jones, Mike Griffin, Wilbur Cooper, Dean

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Beckley(#23), Roush(not top 50), Charley Jones (#25), Browning (#20), Wynn (#31). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. Beckley – never has so much been written about one player. Good and played a long time, a great season or two would have meant election by now. Roush and Wynn are CF extras like so many others. Jones and Browning have received ballot spots in the past from me and might again. The hitting is there, longevity is not.

New guys: Singleton not top 50 – probably in the 70s somewhere. Decent prime but benefitted from being on excellent Baltimore teams. Amos Otis was one smooth outfielder but style points don’t add to his chances of balloting.
   85. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 21, 2006 at 09:16 PM (#2243224)
Jim Sp's ballot has little-to-no substantive commentary. Yet another.
   86. Chris Cobb Posted: November 21, 2006 at 10:28 PM (#2243288)
We've been around the block on ballot reporting a couple of times over the years, and I quite support having comments as the community standard. However, with the complexity of the backlog, our ballot placements are determined by an overall analysis that may include period adjustments, league adjustments, MLE credit, war credit, the evidence of several different comprehensive metrics, and head-to-head comparison with other players at the same position or from the same era as we try to ascertain merit according to our philosophy of what merit actually is: peak value, career value, post-season value, durability, quality of performance when on the field, etc.

Any ballot that actually set out to explain thoroughly the rationale for each ballot placement would be excessively long, I think, so most of our comments will be only a summary or a gesture towards the basis for our evaluations.

Jim Sp has done a good job, it appears to me, of indicating the key evidence that justifies his rankings in a very short note, for those candidates whose ballot placement he has explained, and for the players in the top 10 whom he has not placed on his ballot. I'd like to see similar comments for all the players, but I don't think that Jim's comments, when they exist, violate the spirit of including comments. It's the ballots that offer no commentary or that only offer comments that are not esp. germane to the ranking, that seem to me to violate the spirit of the commenting practice.

That said, in ranking new candidates and, especially in making placements that go against expectations, voters ought to provide more justification for their vote, not only to forestall objections to what they have done, but also to persuade others that they ought to rethink their evaluation of a particular candidate.
   87. Jim Sp Posted: November 22, 2006 at 01:25 AM (#2243450)
I agree that my comments have become too sparse, and I'm glad the community standard is higher than the comments that I've been providing. I think a few elections ago I mentioned that my wife recently gave birth and that my comments would be sparse for a while. That said, I should be writing commentary and I'll be trying to get that going for next election.

I originally had a career based system that was based on OPS+ and ERA+...for pitchers it was basically the sum of (ERA+ - 90)*IP for each season, with an era adjustment for IP. For position players the idea was similar but there was both a positional and Win Shares fielding letter grade adjustment, and I used career rate stats not seasonal. The idea was to define HoM replacement level as something like the level of Ed Kranepool, Enos Cabell, and Tim Leary--players that had long careers but who I would say ever made any progress toward the HoM.

I augmented that fairly recently with a system based on WARP peak/prime, which I define as the sum of (WARP -5) for each season, throwing out anything under 5. For one ballot I tried using that system with some extreme results, now I multiply the result of my WARP peak system with the result of my ERA+/OPS+ system.

And increasingly I try to take my system with a grain of salt and use common sense. I am aware that this system is...well, I don't expect anyone else to adopt my system. What can I say, I like screwing around with spreadsheets of dead ballplayers in erratic bursts of limited spare time.

I value defense and lighter-hitting positions more than most, I give a lot of war credit but not much other credit except (of course) for Negro league credit and catching credit. I follow the consensus pretty closely on Negro leaguers as I am not an expert in that area, all I know is what I've read in Riley's encyclopedia, the Bill James section in the NHBA, and the commentary of this group.
   88. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 22, 2006 at 03:47 AM (#2243548)
1. Joe Morgan: He’s an excellent player, but I haven’t seen enough of him to say.

2. Jim Palmer: Jenkins and Palmer are very close, obviously. Given my distrust of WARPitude, I’m going to err on the side of the 125 ERA+, figuring that splitting the difference still gives me a Palmer whose overall effectiveness is a little more impressive than Fergie’s. I guess I buy the idea that Palmer was a smart, efficient pitcher who could pitch in a pinch thanks to his teammates and his innate tactical/analytical smarts. Look, it’s freakin’ close, and I’m going with Palmer. I could have turned it the other way and it would be the same difference. Both guys deserve a HOM plaque. Period.

3. Fergie Jenkins: Very similar to the recently washed-up Bert Blyleven with a higher absolute peak, but slightly lesser rate stats.

4. Bucky Walters:
Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. He was having a great peak before WW2. I like peak in my pitchers, and he’s got it.

5. Quincy Trouppe:
Best catcher available. Too bad we can’t find more consensus on this guy. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different. See my comments in the New Eligibles thread (around #865) for more details.

6. Charley Jones:
Best left fielder available. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices all because he wanted to get paid. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

7. Wilbur Cooper:
Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

8. Larry Doyle:
I’m coming around on him. The dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

9. Hugh Duffy:
His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Wynn gang.

10. Sal Bando:
There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that
a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

11. Edd Roush:
I just don’t exactly know what to think about the third-tier CFs except that I’m finding Roush creeping upwards lately. Roush, Duffy, Ryan, Van H., Wynn. They are so friggin’ close. And my current system and my Keltner-based system don’t agree on the order in each instance. But I’m coming to rely more on the Keltner-type system and it’s support of candidates who exhibit a lot of dominance over league and position. Roush was ever so slightly more dominant than Duffy, so I’d like to give him the nod. Though, in fairness, I think that Duffy had slightly better positional peers. Roush battled Max Carey with a little Dode Paskert and Lloyd Waner tossed in too. Duffy had Ryan, VH, Hamilton, and Griffin in CF, plus some fine players at the corners when he played there. Mike W., you owe me a few favors now... ; )

12. Nellie Fox:
Yeah, this one’s surprised me too. He’s been remarkably close to my ballot for a while, but I never would have dreamed he’d have sniffed it. But the truth be told, I’ve been ignoring him a bit because I have a tendency to prefer “my kind of player” and Fox isn’t that kind of player. But truth be told, he’s the second-best 2B on the ballot, and he’s not very far behind Cupid, and he’s among the top 15 2Bs we’ve seen so far. Those are excellent credentials. He also exhibits good positional dominance and was a many-time All-Star type player. He wouldn’t be the HOM’s best player, but he’s a very good selection.

13. Pete Browning:
Fabulous hitter. True he benefited from weak competition in the early AA, but also true that he hit great in the PL and early 90s NL. I’m comfortable that he was a sufficiently good enough hitter to have a ballot spot near the other CFs.

14. Tommy Leach:
Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

15. Roger Bresnahan:
Outstanding catcher-hybrid candidate. Good peak, especially for the position, and a robust offensive game.

NEW GUYS
Ken Singleton: New week, same result. ; )

I’m a big fan, but he’s not quite making my ballot. Great peak, prime, best in his league for a decent spell, plenty of All-Star type seaons and MVP-level play. Is probably better than at least a quarter of the HOF’s RFs.

Otis: A member of the all-prophets team!
C: Aaron Robinson
1B: Joel Youngblood
2B: Aaron Miles
3B: Aaron Boone
SS: Aaron Hill
OF: Jesus Alou
OF: Amos Otis
OF: Amos Strunk
DH: Aaron Rowand
SP: Amos Rusie
SP: Aaron Sele
SP: Aaron Harang
SP: Joel Piniero
RP: Aaron Fultz
RP: Jesus Colome

Greg Luzinski and Bob Watson: Besides not making my ballot and playing in the 1970s NL, what do these two have in common? BB-Ref lists them both as being called Bull.

Rick Monday: OK, you asked for it, the all days of the week team. Well, actually, there’s only Sunday (Billy and Art), Monday (Rick), and Friday (Skipper). Ah well. There’s always Rickie Weeks, I guess.

Tug McGraw: Funny guy, good reliever, couldn’t be a funny enough reliever to make my ballot.

RETURNING TOP TENS

Dobie Moore:
I really like Dobie Moore. The current thinking shows him as a super valuable player. But I don’t yet see enough to push him up into my electable area. I’m inclined to give him more credit during the Wreckers years than he’s getting because he truly hit the ground running in 1920. I suspect he was better than a rising talent on the Wreckers, that he had left 3B quite early in the Wreckers’ era, and that quite possibly he was quickly the team’s top player as a hard-hitting shortstop. Too bad I can’t prove it.

Boyer:
I had him 15 two weeks ago, I backed off again this week just a bit. He’s not far at all from my ballot, but I have reservations about him. I see the Brooks’ prime v. Ken’s prime argument as probably true, but he also wasn’t the best 3B of his era in his league. Yet he had stiffer competition than either Brooks or Bando. But he was also never able to bubble up to the best very often in part because he rarely put together MVP-type seasons…only one that my WS-centric world sees. Furthermore, as you all know, I don’t really trust WARP’s fielding stuff so much, so I’m hard-pressed to accept him as a glove-first third baseman with hitting.

Wynn:
Wynn never dominated his league like the cluster of 1890s CF did, and that’s pretty much the difference. And they played in a very strongly concentrated league too. Like with Stargell, I don’t have any great opposition to his probable election, but I don’t feel compelled to vote for him either.
   89. Thane of Bagarth Posted: November 22, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#2243571)
1990 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

1) Joe Morgan
It might be impossible for him to be as bad at announcing as he was good at playing baseball. He’s in my top 20 all-time through this election, third among second basemen—below Collins and Hornsby, just above Nap Lajoie. If I’ve counted correctly, his top 5 WARP3 seasons at 66.3 is tied with Stan the Man for 7th best all-time.

2) Fergie Jenkins
A bit better overall than Palmer…as much as that hurts to say, being an O’s fan.

3) Jim Palmer
A great pitcher, but he didn’t seem to match Fergie in peak or career value.


4) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

5) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

6) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

7) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, hopefully we’ll give him his due eventually.

8) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

9) Quincy Trouppe
With Bench elected, he’s my pick for best available among those who primarily played catcher, Black or White. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

10) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, and around 47 WARP3.

11) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5. Balancing the two lands George right in the middle of my ballot.

12) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone, I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous.

13) Ken Boyer
50.5 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is around what I would guess the average HoMer gets. Plus 99.4 WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

14) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

15) Jimmy Ryan
As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part 1).

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Gavy Cravath
17) Dizzy Trout
18) Dobie Moore—I rank him as significantly better than Hughie Jennings, but not exactly a shoe-in for future enshrinement.
19) Charlie Keller
20) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it.
21) Sam Rice
22) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections.
23) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
24) Tommy Leach
25) Rabbit Maranville
26) Norm Cash
27) Jim Kaat
28) Reggie Smith
29) Buzz Arlett
30) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind OFs ranked higher, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
31) Burleigh Grimes
32) Jack Quinn
33) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
34) Bob Elliot
35) Harry Hooper
36) Vada Pinson
37) Phil Rizzuto
38) Alejandro Oms
39) Hugh Duffy
40) Orlando Cepeda
41) Bus Clarkson
42) Lou Brock
43) Vern Stephens
44) Dom DiMaggio
45) Spot Poles
46) Gil Hodges
47) Cy Seymour
48) Fielder Jones
49) Johnny Pesky
50) George Burns

Notable Newcomers:
85) Amos Otis

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 50:
Pete Browning: He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him somewhere just over #100, in Hack Wilson territory.
   90. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 22, 2006 at 04:59 AM (#2243609)
PHOM: Morgan, Jenkins, Palmer

1. Joe Morgan - 3rd greatest second baseman. Top 20 player.

2. Fergie Jenkins
3. Jim Palmer

Both top 25 pitchers, I have Jenkins ahead by a little.

4. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

5. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

6. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

7. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

8. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

9. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

10. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

11. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

12. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

13. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

14. Ken Singleton - 132 OPS+. Very good peak, 4 year with an OPS+ over 150.

15. Bobby Bonds - 130 OPS+. 461 SB, 332 HR, 5 30/30 seasons.

16. Vada Pinson
17. Norm Cash
18. Hugh Duffy
19. Edd Roush
20. Bob Elliott
21. Tommy Leach
22. Harry Hooper
23. Luis Tiant
24. George Van Haltren
25. Alejandro Oms
26. Buzz Arlett
27. Orlando Cepeda
28. Gil Hodges
29. Burleigh Grimes
30. Reggie Smith
31. Willie Davis
32. Fielder Jones
33. Dick Redding
34. Pie Traynor
35. Jim Kaat

Moore, Browning - Great peaks, but not enough career value.
   91. sunnyday2 Posted: November 22, 2006 at 05:21 AM (#2243623)
There's sumthin' funny goin' on, I can just feel it! 3 ballots in a row with some guy named Bucky at #4? These guys been talkin' behind our backs! Isn't there an open meeting law, or sumthin' like that? I mean, is that allowed?

But I'll say this. After this here ballot from this Doc fella, why, nobody will have to write any comments the rest of the year, and we'll still come out ahaid.
   92. rico vanian Posted: November 22, 2006 at 05:49 AM (#2243642)
FWIW-
I like Joe Morgan as a broadcaster. I think he's getting treated unfairly here. Maybe it's because I live in NY and I get hammered nationally with Tim McCarver and locally with the Yankees' radio team of the loathsome John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman, but I think Morgan does a nice, understated job with Jon Miller.
   93. Brent Posted: November 22, 2006 at 06:43 AM (#2243677)
the all-prophets team!

I'd start the pitching staff with Robert Moses Grove.
   94. Sean Gilman Posted: November 22, 2006 at 09:31 AM (#2243720)
1990

1. Joe Morgan (-)--An easy number one.

2. Ferguson Jenkins (4)--Edges Palmer in WS and WARP, peak and career.

3. Jim Palmer (-)--I thought he would do better, at least relative to Jenkins, but he’s still an easy HOMer.

4. Pete Browning (5)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

5. Charley Jones (6)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

6. Tommy Leach (7)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

7. Edd Roush (8)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

8. Larry Doyle (9)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

9. Ken Boyer 10)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

10. Hugh Duffy (11)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. Counting players not in my PHOM, I’ve got 11 Outfielders between Duffy at #15 and Vada Pinson at #35. There really isn’t much difference between any of them. (1964)

11. George Van Haltren (12)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

12. Carl Mays (13)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

13. Alejandro Oms (14)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

14. Ken Singleton (-)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn.

15. Jimmy Wynn (15)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)
16. Bobby Bonds (16)
17. Frank Howard (17)
(Joe Gordon)
18. Nellie Fox (18)
19. Quincy Trouppe (19)
(Red Faber)
20. Bob Elliott (20)
(Red Ruffing)
21. Vada Pinson (21)
(Bob Lemon)
22. Bucky Walters (22)
23. Wally Berger (23)
(Ted Lyons)
24. Dick Redding (24)
25. Ed Williamson (25)
26. Dobie Moore (26)
27. Sal Bando (27)
28. Norm Cash (28)
29. Bobby Murcer (29)
30. Orlando Cepeda (30)
(Billy Pierce)
31. Vern Stephens (31)
32. Roger Bresnahan (32)
33. Lou Brock (33)
34. Dave Bancroft (34)
35. Jimmy Ryan (35)
36. Charlie Keller (36)
37. Rabbit Maranville (37)
38. Tony Lazzeri (38)
39. Phil Rizzuto (39)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
40. Gavy Cravath (40)
41. Reggie Smith (41)
42. Jake Beckley (42)
43. Bobby Veach (43)
44. Luis Tiant (44)
45. Dizzy Dean (45)
46. Roy White (46)
47. Tony Oliva (47)
48. Boog Powell (48)
49. Jim Kaat (49)
50. Jim Fregosi (50)
   95. andrew siegel Posted: November 22, 2006 at 01:09 PM (#2243733)
(1)Morgan (new)--I'm not sure I can justify my preconceived notion that he is the greatest 2B of All-Time, but he's clearly top 3.

(2)Jenkins (4th)--Fully qualified. Somewhere around 125 All-Time. The difference between him and Palmer is 100% context. They are as matched a set as Davis/Dahlen or GVH/Ryan.

(3) Palmer (new)--It takes nothing away from his greatness to admit that his defense were damn good.

(4) Keller (5th)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). Except Morgan, he only player on the ballot who played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner, Berger, and Chance only reached for 4 or 5.

(5) Roush (6th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except Morgan and the third basemen. A star in his own time--a decent fielding CF always near the league lead in OBP.

(6) Bob Johnson (7th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(7) Cash (8th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(8) Bridges (t9h)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(9) Leach (10th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM.

(10) Trouppe (11th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's. The biggest surprise of this whole project.

(11) Wynn (13th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers.

(12) Boyer (14th)--Did it all well for just long enough. Somewhere around the #17 3B of All-Time.

(13) Elliot (15th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(14) Oms (nr/16th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up.

(15) Cravath (12th)--I've got no problem giving minor league credit and that brings him on ballot. Looking at the total package he offered, however, my personal jury is still out. Agreat hitter, but so where Jones, Browning, Fournier, Tiernan, Frank Howard, etc. He feels like one of those. Career length comparison to those others gets him the last slot on this ballot, but it is tenuous.

There are arguments for Fox; I just wish he had a little more offense and, therefore, like others better (he's in the low 30's). Beckley is #19 and will make my ballot again soon.

I once had Dobie Moore 1st on my ballot, but now have him around 50th. The difference is that I had originally projected a historic peak for him, but the latest numbers don't support it.

Browning has durability, fielding, and competition issues. His hitting is good enough to overcome 2 out of the 3 but not all of them. When I take appropriate account of all three, I have him down in the 30's.

I like Ken Singleton much better than most of you guys--he's ahead of Bonds and Smith, somewhere beteen 16 and 21.
   96. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 22, 2006 at 04:03 PM (#2243838)
There's sumthin' funny goin' on, I can just feel it!

Should I start calling you The Backstage Manager? Are you going to get the Hangin' Judge?

(http://www.bobdylan.com/songs/lily.html)
   97. DL from MN Posted: November 22, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2243877)
> It might be impossible for him to be as bad at announcing as he was good at playing
> baseball.

Maybe if his commentary alternated between guttural grunts and moans during dead air to high pitched shrieking whenever the play-by-play broadcaster was speaking. Even then you could still watch the camera feed.

Can Leon Day and Zach Day get on the all "days" team?
   98. jhwinfrey Posted: November 22, 2006 at 05:12 PM (#2243924)
the all-prophets team!

I think you're missing an obvious one: Ruth!

And you gotta have Moses Fleetwood Walker, Francis Isaiah Foreman, Malachi Kittridge and Harold Abraham "Hal" McRae.

Is Ezra Sutton too much of a stretch? How about Samuel Rice, Thompson, or Crawford? Darrell Elijah "Cy" Blanton?

Why yes, I am from the Bible belt, why do you ask?
   99. DavidFoss Posted: November 22, 2006 at 05:26 PM (#2243945)
Is Ezra Sutton too much of a stretch?

Hmmm... I think you can you come up with something Better Than Ezra. :-)

Does Rusty Staub lose points for avoiding his given name Daniel? Quiz can fill the gill (Apparently the Dan in Dan Brouthers is short for Dennis though)
   100. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 22, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#2243949)
Well, I was trying to stick to first names and playing names.... ; )

A lurker suggested that I clarify that I wasn't exclusively working the Judeo-Christian tradition since Jesus is a prophet in Islamic tradition. That said, I could have expanded to the Mormon prophets, however in doing so I risked widening the team to every player in history since the Mormons have a tradition of continuing and personal revelation, which makes things murky for obvious reasons. But fairly, I should have included some Josephs (though Joe seems not appropriate given that Smith is virtually always refered to as Joseph) and perhaps some Brighams. I couldn't find any Muh----ds. Soon Elijah Dukes will join the team.
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