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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, December 04, 2006

1991 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Rod Carew, Rusty Staub, Rollie Fingers, Al Oliver, Jerry Koosman, and Steve Rogers.

Top-ten returnees: Ken Boyer, Jimmy Wynn, Nellie Fox, Dobie Moore, Pete Browning, Charlie Keller, and Edd Roush.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2006 at 02:01 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Michael Bass Posted: December 09, 2006 at 10:00 PM (#2256532)
PHOM this year is one newcomer and two guys already elected: Carew, Freehan, and Three Finger Brown. In fact Brown gets in almost 70 years after the electorate put him in.


1. Rod Carew (PHOM 1991) - Mostly a career guy, but his peak and prime centered around the mid-70s takes a back seat to no one. It's worth pointing out that WARP doesn't see him as a terrible fielder, slightly below average at 2B, above at 1B.

2. Dobie Moore (PHOM 1932) - I believe he is Jennings, who I loved, with a slightly lower peak, and a longer career (that was still short-ish, even with 2 or so years of army credit). All evidence points to a high quality bat and A level fielder at shortstop. I'm partial to fielders at shortstop, as you'll see later, and add in a bat, you get a high ballot spot.

3. Ken Boyer (PHOM 1975) - One of the all time greats in fielding at 3B, and a very good hitter as well. Career not overly longer, but a very strong combined bat/glove prime.

4. Fred Dunlap (PHOM 1926) - I'm close to alone on this one. My case for him is simple, he was one of baseball's best players for 6 straight years. Win shares underrates him, just as it overrates pitchers from the era. Very good hitter, great fielder from an era when fielding meant more.

5. Bob Elliot (PHOM 1968) - Never understood the lack of love for him. I have always viewed him as very close, just short of Stan Hack. This time around, I liked Hack a lot, so Elliot slots in very highly, as we're real deep into the backlog at this point.

6. Bob Johnson (PHOM 1971) - Maybe the foremost all-prime career. Gets no minor league credit despite his late start (it was investigated at the time, he was just a late bloomer). Like Elliot takes a slight minus from his raw stats for the inflated 44-45 years when they were playing with a bunch of AA guys. Clockwork hitter for 12 of his 13 years.

7. Phil Rizzuto (PHOM 1972) - Scooter is the first pure glove man on my ballot; and outstanding shortstop with an average bat (MVP level the year he was more than an average bat). Add in 3 years of war credit (which came right in the middle of his best years), and you get him to this spot.

8. Quincy Trouppe (PHOM 1973) - All evidence points to a very strong bat for a catcher. He would have to be a horrible fielder to not make my ballot given what I believe of his bat, and there's no evidence he was horrible; probably a solid C.

9. Rabbit Maranville (PHOM 1976) - Rizzuto for an earlier generation. Longer career (gets nearly a year of war credit), doesn't have the one year peak of Rizzuto, and was a moderately worse hitter. But an amazing fielder forever. I'll be a big Ozzie supporter, and this guy was Ozzie-lite.

10. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1979) - Had a very nice peak just before the war, and some shoulder seasons before that and during the war.

11. Dick Redding (PHOM 1981) - Had a nice career length, and the numbers indicate a strong peak as well. Not long enough career or high enough peak to go higher than this, but enough of both to land here.

12. Urban Shocker (PHOM 1942) - Nice prime, nice 1920-1923 peak, all in the strong league at the time.

13. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1986) - Long career, wrong league, but some nice seasons along the way. He's in my view what Eppa Rixey (who I didn't like) was to most other people. Not overly enthused by him, or anyone else on this portion of the ballot (after Trouppe I'd say), but we're deep into the backlog, both for PHOM purposes and for my ballot.

14. Dave Bancroft (PHOM 1987) - Rizzuto-esque candidate. A little more consistent bat, not quite the glove, though still real good with it. Long career, plenty of prime.

15. Bill Monroe (PHOM 1930) - Largely forgotten 2B from the first documented days of the Negro Leagues, was a solid glove a pretty good bat for a long time. In retrospect, wish we'd centered on him, rather than Grant, about whom there was very little evidence and a whole lot of guesswork.


16. Thurman Munson (PHOM 1987) - Plenty of defense, plenty of hitting, durable.
17. Jake Beckley (PHOM 1931) - Yeah, I'll never hear the end of this one, but his career stands out for the era, even if he's still peakless.
18. Dizzy Dean (PHOM 1988) - I wonder how many ballots have Beckley and Dean side by side. Anyway, all peak, obviously.
19. Lave Cross (PHOM 1988) - Back to the career, plus a touch of catching credit (even when not catching, he played a tough position and played it well).
20. Jimmy Wynn - Nice hitter, career's a little short considering he's an outfielder, and his fielding is not a plus (or a minus, but he needs the help).

Other top 10 returnees

21. Nellie Fox - Basically Rizzuto, but at 2B rather than SS, and the difference hurts on a ballot this bunched up.
67. Pete Browning - Not in love, no fielding, career is short for an OF.
33. Charlie Keller - Missed some games at his peak which kept it from being high enough to overcome his very short career. Only 1.5 years of war credit.
NR. Edd Roush - Consistently missing games, in the weak league, not a good fielder, not a great hitter. Pass.

Other newcomers

25. Rollie Fingers - Might squeeze into my PHOM one day, but I believe the importance of relievers is vastly overblown by baseball men, and I don't feel compelled to go along with it too much. If pressed on it, I'd say Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera were the only HOM relievers, with a couple others (including Fingers) right on the borderline.
50. Rusty Staub - In this era, a long career along isn't enough
93. Jerry Koosman - See Staub.
   102. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: December 09, 2006 at 11:15 PM (#2256608)
1. Rod Carew - As a First Baseman, a middle of the pack HOM'er. As a second baseman, almost Morgan's equal. As a hybrid, number one on this ballot.
2. Dobie Moore - What can I say, I'm sold. Ernie Banks without the 1b years? Good enough for me.
3. Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen.
4. Ken Boyer - Brooks Robinson-lite, but with a peak.
5. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove pushes him above Keller this time around.
6. Charlie Keller - Poor man's Kiner. Close with war credit, but Kiner's huge peak was real.
7. Thurman Munson - I'm warming up to the idea that he was very similar to Freehan.
8. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? An egregious oversight on my part.
9. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
10. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player.
11. Frank Howard - Now comes the fun part. As a peak guy (even though I count career as well, I lean peak), I couldn't rationalize him so low, especially behind Beckley.
12. Norm Cash - Raw numbers better than Howard, but Cash was platooned.
13. Chuck Klein - Similar to Howard, but how much of it was the Baker Bowl?
14. Rollie Fingers - May be a conservative first ballot placement; but I'm not sold on the peak/prime. Wilhelm was better, and Marshall is close.
15. Jake Beckley - Makes it back onto the ballot. No peak, but career too good to overlook entirely. The charter member of the HOVG.
16 - 20 Taylor, Tiant, GVH, Roy White, Redding


Required Disclosures:

Roush - Played in a weak league and is discounted accordingly. Also questions about in-season durability. In the mid-30's.
Fox - Where's the offense outside of hits? As a glove-centric guy, he's with Rizzuto in the off-ballot but not far off types.
Wynn - Bad on the basepaths, not enough peak for a short career guy, in season durability questions, seems pretty Murcer-esque to me. In the late 30's.

Newbies not on ballot:
Oliver - A bit worse than Wynn - in the 40's.
Koosman - In the Lolich/Hunter range - late 30's early 40's.
Rogers - A bit lower than Koos.
   103. Howie Menckel Posted: December 10, 2006 at 01:57 AM (#2256699)
1991 ballot, our 94th

The fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I had last year's electees Joe Morgan, Jim Palmer, and Ferguson Jenkins 1-2-3 (which is just where they finished, in that order).

1. ROD CAREW - His OPS+ line runs at 178 57 50 48 44 39 36 31 28 24 19 19 14 07 - similar to Bob Johnson, actually. But Carew cleared 135 four times while playing 2B for the Twins, giving his team a sizable advantage - Johnson's opponents were offering pretty strong-hitting OFs themselves. Carew career-highs as a 1B, and holds his own offensively against more rugged competition for 3-5 years there. Interesting career, and he were a lesser player he could have presented a conundrum: Is it possible for a player to be HOM or HOF-bound at one position, only to be denied simply because his manager moved him - maybe when it was absolutely necessary? Chipper Jones I think will be good enough to avoid this fate - but has anyone ever had that happen to them?
2. ROLLIE FINGERS - A devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up No. 2? Mainly, lack of competition on the ballot. But he has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, as a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 7 for Rivera). But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus to his World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on (not to seem to be slighting the great Mariano, a better pitcher, but he rarely does that). There is intriguing data that suggests that the Yankees' Wang is deliberately inducing grounders most of the time - and then raising his K rate only when needed. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immeasurable value. Still, no complaints if he has to wait for more debate.
3. PETE BROWNING - For this ballot, I looked again at the 1890 PL season. Browning at age 29 leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. But in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This poor fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not enough to keep him off this ballot.

4. NELLIE FOX - The best of an era at his position. But is this the Sewell argument all over again - one I ultimately found went against Sewell? I'm wavering but not yet convinced. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. A lot more seasons than Sewell at middle infield, that helps. (Yes, I looked at Bancroft this year. Tempting, but not quite there on him yet.)
5. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen strong years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
6. JAKE BECKLEY - Ah, the great polarizer. I should note that this is not as much a "elect Beckley" play as a "hey, they're making me pick 15 people vote, and I don't like the other guys more."
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. The biggest issue for him may be the 8 seasons in the 120s - I find that quite valuable given era and position; others do not.
7. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
8. KEN BOYER - Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys. I can't quite get him over Elliott yet, but no objection here I suppose if he goes HOM this year.
9. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot.
10. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
12. QUINCY TROUPPE - Leaped onto my ballot for the first time ever last year, as I'm now starting to believe he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. A better hitter than I'd thought previously - he didn't always get to play against many HOMers, but stacked up nicely when he did.
13. CHARLIE KELLER - Second time on my ballot. Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get him onto my ballot before. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. I don't mind bumping close guys up and in during the war, but the pct of extrapolation here has been a little too much for me.
14. FRANK HOWARD - Ken Singleton snagged this spot last year, after I had intended to give it to Wynn. This year, I looked at Howard, and he just is too far ahead in three spectacular seasons and five more very solid ones to lose out to Wynn, even given the fielding handicapping. An astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons, too.
15. BUCKY WALTERS - Slipped back onto the ballot after missing last 2 years; very borderline. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on my ballot in certain years, but maybe not for good.

OF THE 10 TOP RETURNEES, DID NOT VOTE FOR:
JIMMY WYNN - Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and threatens to be just as wildly overrated here. I almost like Reggie Smith better, and surely Johnson, Cravath, Keller and Howard were just as good or better. Still, the OPS+s are undeniable, the fielding/position gives some boost. Has not yet reached my ballot, but might next year if he's still around.
DOBIE MOORE - Really seems to be palatable only for a pure-peak guy. Even at SS, I don't see how he can compete with a guy like Keller, for example, who is only in the teens for me right now.
EDD ROUSH - The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW II. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp, and I like Reggie a tiny bit better even without a timeline. Hall of Very Good, lucky to be in the Hall of Fame.
CHARLEY JONES - Has made big leap in the voting of late, but I still don't quite see it. The suspension is an interesting mid-career turn, but lots of weird things went on in those days. I pretty much just look at what they did do, and I can't see putting Jones ahead of Johnson, Cravath, or Keller.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
GAVY CRAVATH - First time off my ballot in about 20 years, in reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. Still, I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd have been right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. Will return to my ballot.
KEN SINGLETON - One of a half-dozen guys who had such similar impact. I need to take a closer look and either reinstate or discard for now, I hope.
THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
ELSTON HOWARD - I am troubled by the combo of shortened career plus durability issues, but I've decided he deserves more offbeat credit than Charley Jones does. Damn shame he caught in the wrong organization; not much reason for anyone to claim 'Yankee pride' when it comes to reviewing this case.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the innings usually just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, not sure yet.
MICKEY WELCH - The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.


NEWBIE
JERRY KOOSMAN - Great pitcher twice and very good in 4-5 more seasons. Better than people realize, and might even be in my top 50, if I had one, but not quite good enough. Started a little late, and too many so-so seasons, alas.
   104. rawagman Posted: December 10, 2006 at 06:48 AM (#2256897)
Howie - no comment on Staub? Oliver? Rogers?
   105. rawagman Posted: December 10, 2006 at 06:50 AM (#2256899)
and where's number 11?
   106. Jeff M Posted: December 10, 2006 at 04:34 PM (#2257044)
1991 Ballot

1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

2. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

3. Carew, Rod – I anticipated him being higher, and if he played his entire career at 2b, he would no doubt be #1. But with half his career at 1b, and being essentially a one-trick pony (batting average), he slips behind two old-timers. Too bad, since he and Davey Lopes were my favorite players growing up.

4. Browning, Pete – He proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project. How is it that Browning and Jones are only on 1/3 of the ballots?

5. Roush, Edd -- 300+ WS; 100+ WARP1; normalized .322/.368/.444; good grey ink; and an above average defender in the outfield.

6. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhits the average hitter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

7. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust, but he still fares well overall. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position in the outfield, I rank him higher than Williams.

8. Dean, Dizzy -- Hard to get this high a ballot position with only five or so seasons, but Dean is the exception.

9. Fingers, Rollie – One of the few relief pitchers from this era that arguably deserves a spot in the HoM.

10. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years.

11. Moore, Dobie – I think he is a notch below HoM level, but would have been a shoo-in with a few more years.

12. Long, Herman – From the dustbin, a 300+ aWS & 130+ aWARP1 shortstop.

13. Maranville, Rabbit –Evidence that my system might treat Ozzie Smith right.

14. Traynor, Pie – Numbers wouldn’t qualify at 3b today, but at the time he was a very good player. Not at HoM level, in my opinion.

15. McGraw, John -- Has always lingered near the bottom of the ballot because of that OBP.

Required Disclosure(s):

Boyer, Ken – Has been on my ballot but slid off with reevaluations of a few more candidates from the backlog.

Wynn, Jimmy – Barely in my consideration set. Can’t give him much credit for being a centerfielder because he probably shouldn’t have been there. He seems like a candidate only for extreme peak voters, and even then it seems a stretch to consider him as a truly great player, even as a backlogger. I think he'd be an embarassing selection.

Fox, Nellie – Been on and off the ballot. He’s pretty much tied with Boyer.

Keller, Charlie – Barely off of this ballot. Another solid year and he’s in the middle of the ballot. I certainly don’t doubt his abilities.
   107. Howie Menckel Posted: December 10, 2006 at 05:01 PM (#2257070)
dammit, I was indeed missing a No. 11 - well, it's been a few decades since one of those screwups. My apologies.

revised 11-15 ("12 to 15" become "11 to 14," and Cravath gets the last slot).

11. QUINCY TROUPPE - Leaped onto my ballot for the first time ever last year, as I'm now starting to believe he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. A better hitter than I'd thought previously - he didn't always get to play against many HOMers, but stacked up nicely when he did.
12. CHARLIE KELLER - Second time on my ballot. Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get him onto my ballot before. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. I don't mind bumping close guys up and in during the war, but the pct of extrapolation here has been a little too much for me.
13. FRANK HOWARD - Ken Singleton snagged a low-ballot slugger spot last year, after I had intended to give it to Wynn. This year, I looked again at Howard, and he just is too far ahead in three spectacular seasons and five more very solid ones to lose out to Wynn, even given the fielding handicapping. An astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons, too.
14. BUCKY WALTERS - Slipped back onto the ballot after missing last 2 years; very borderline. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on my ballot in certain years, but maybe not for good.
15. GAVY CRAVATH - Nearly fell off my ballot for the first time in about 20 years, in reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. Still, I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd have been right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. Will return to my ballot.

OTHER NEWBIE
RUSTY STAUB - Prime is very similar to nearly a dozen contenders, but it doesn't have quite as many stellar years and the peak doesn't quite make up for it.

I had intended to list Staub that way; guys like Oliver and Rogers don't generally rate a comment from me; best argument for them is that maybe they're as good as Staub or Koosman after all. But I'm not voting for any of them.
   108. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: December 10, 2006 at 05:58 PM (#2257104)
1) R. Carew- Way above the backlog

2) C. Keller-Amazing peak AND amazing career (with credit). Don't really understand the arguments against him other than "I don't give that much credit". Oh well, his day will hopefully come.

3) D. Dean-Best pitcher alive for 3 years. Should get the vote of every peaker, and no careerer.

4) R. Fingers-How to place him? Obvously great at preventing runs to score as a reliever. How much value that has, I dunno. No no-brainer HoMer's below this point, so this is where i stuck 'im.

5)K. Boyer- Never hit like an HOMer, but a defensive beast, I think the sum of his contributions in his prime was probably more valuble than Browning or Klein's one-dimensonal play. Very similar to Scott Rolen, who I think is an HoM caliber player.

6) G. Cravath-The home park is responsible for some of his value, so not in the vicinity of Keller, but I can't take off too much for exploiting the Baker Bowl, and without a park correction would probably be in the top 5

7) E. Roush- 3 consecutive years as top 3 hitter in the league with near-average defense in CF, no player below him had that kind of hitting peak at a D-position. I'm aware of the PT issues, but the rate is enough to make up for it.

8) A. Rosen- Had arguably the best 3B season of all-time, and it was no fluke..he had the best peak on the ballot (other than Dean) and while hs career was short, within each season his durability was fine.

9) P. Browning- Loses many points for drunkeness, and his negative contributions on everything but offense, league-quality and durability issues. But a hell of a hitter, and regarded as a Great while he was playing.

10) E. Howard- Blocked, moved, token-ed by the Yankees. How many catchers have hit like Howard at his peak? How many of them aren't in the HOM? (probably Bresnahan)

11) T. Munson- Victim of homepark, vastly underrated by OPS+. Better than all catchers but Howard, better relative to other catchers than, say Cravath is to other corner OF, depending on how you evaluate Bresnahan.

12) C. Klein- Top 3 hitter in the NL for 3 consecutive years. Are we really going to keep every great from the Baker Bowl out of the HoM?

13) B. Mazeroski- Best defensive 2B in baseball history. Couldn't hit a lick, but was worth 25-30 runs a year in the field! I think he's been grossly underrated by the electorate.

14) N. Fox- Identical value to Maz, just 10 runs less in the field and 10 more at the plate

15) D. Moore- I couldn't bring myself to put Wynn on the ballot, so I'll go for the unknown peaky SS.

Disclosures:
Wynn- Doesn't pass the HoM smell test. Too inconsistent. Helped by his home-park..I think he's getting support because of the Bill Freehan syndrome, where voters tend to overrate a player who they feel was underrated by the general pop (seriously, explain to me how Freehan is that much better than Howard!)

Staub- Holy ####, it's Jake Beckley!
   109. Thane of Bagarth Posted: December 10, 2006 at 06:12 PM (#2257114)
1991 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

1) Rod Carew
An easy choice for first this year. Solid peak and he seemed to play forever.

2) Rusty Staub
Waaay below Carew. By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal, but 100+ WARP is respectable. Besides Carew, the rest of this year’s eligibles appear to be backlog fodder, and although Staub heads to the top of the list, there is little to no gap between him and the rest.

3) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

4) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

5) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

6) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, hopefully we’ll give him his due eventually.

7) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

8) Quincy Trouppe
With Bench elected, he’s my pick for best available among those who primarily played catcher, Black or White. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

9) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of a “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3.

10) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5. Balancing the two lands George right in the middle of my ballot.

11) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone, I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous.

12) Ken Boyer
50.5 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is around what I would guess the average HoMer gets. Plus 99.4 WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

13) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

14) Jimmy Ryan
As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part 1).

15) Gavy Cravath
A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.

The Rest of the Top 50

16) Dizzy Trout
17) Dobie Moore—I rank him as significantly better than Hughie Jennings, but not exactly a shoe-in for future enshrinement.
18) Charlie Keller—1+ years of WWII credit add some bulk to his career to get him near the ballot.
19) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
20) Sam Rice
21) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections.
22) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
23) Tommy Leach
24) Rabbit Maranville
25) Norm Cash
26) Jim Kaat
27) Reggie Smith
28) Buzz Arlett
29) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind OFs ranked higher, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
30) Burleigh Grimes
31) Jack Quinn
32) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
33) Bob Elliot
34) Harry Hooper
35) Vada Pinson
36) Phil Rizzuto
37) Alejandro Oms
38) Hugh Duffy
39) Orlando Cepeda
40) Bus Clarkson
41) Lou Brock
42) Vern Stephens
43) Dom DiMaggio
44) Spot Poles
45) Gil Hodges
46) Cy Seymour
47) Fielder Jones
48) Johnny Pesky
49) George Burns
50) Mickey Vernon

Notable Newcomers:
69) Jerry Koosman
102)Al Oliver—OK career numbers, but his 5-year peak is pretty low: 33 WARP3, 114 WS.
100+)Rollie Fingers—Just barely out of my top 100. I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters (by inflating reliever Win Shares to bring them more in line with WARP, which I think does a fair job of valuing relievers). Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them even more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 50:
Pete Browning: He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him somewhere just over #100, in Hack Wilson territory.
   110. Daryn Posted: December 10, 2006 at 09:29 PM (#2257247)
Jeff M. wrote:

1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.


Jeff -- we haven't elected Heinie Manush. By your comments it looks like you should have him near the top of your ballot.
   111. Paul Wendt Posted: December 10, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#2257254)
Re: Manush, what he said,
and this probably bears on Cuyler
10. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years.
   112. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 10, 2006 at 10:06 PM (#2257270)
Jeff -- we haven't elected Heinie Manush. By your comments it looks like you should have him near the top of your ballot.

I posted this months ago, but Jeff never responded to my query.

and this probably bears on Cuyler
10. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years



Yeah, I'm also curious as to how he's getting those numbers, since BR.com disagrees rather strongly. As to the comps, almost all of the HOFers are borderline guys, not to mention the serious flaw similiraity scores have when they are not context and park adjusted.
   113. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 10, 2006 at 10:08 PM (#2257273)
I should point out that I am happy that Jeff supports Oms. :-)
   114. Trevor P. Posted: December 11, 2006 at 03:53 AM (#2257578)
I’ve missed a few years, I know. Good to see Cupid Childs went in while I was away.

1) Rod Carew. For most career/prime voters, I doubt it matters what position he played.
2) George Van Haltren. Career 121 OPS+ is deceptively tarnished by a 45 and a 72 in his final two ML seasons. Add in almost 700 IP and, in my mind, you have the second-best pure career candidate on the board.
3) Jake Beckley. And the best? That would be Beckley. 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite a lot of value, even though I give more credit to a 9-year peak than I used to.
4) Quincy Trouppe. Probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
5) Bob Johnson. Beats Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s.
6) Edd Roush. Hurt by the discount to WARP3. Comparable to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
7) Jimmie Wynn. I’d once planned on placing Reggie Smith on the ballot, but his discussion caused me to go with Wynn instead. Undeniably strong OBP. Roush vs. Wynn is a pretty tough call, so they’re tied together for now.
8) Burleigh Grimes. Substantial movement about fifteen years ago after comparing his case with Eppa Rixey, whom I had as high as #2. His extreme highs are enough to balance out his scary lows; if he’d grouped them all together, instead of vacillating between the two extremes, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
9) Bob Elliott. Similar to Stan Hack, whom we elected long ago, and better than Boyer when one looks at his era’s competition at 3B.
10) Jimmy Ryan. All the GVH comparisons are valid; I just think Van Haltren’s a tad better. Might’ve been the Billy Williams of the 19th century with a higher peak.
11) Ken Boyer. Doesn't shine as much as Elliott when compared to his competition, but has enough fielding value to get on this ballot.
12) Dick Redding. A slightly lesser version of Burleigh Grimes, in my estimation, without the mind-boggling lows.
13) Alejandro Oms. Made a long-awaited return to my ballot in '85. Overshadowed by other greats during his time, but still accrued enough value to catch the tail end of this ballot.
14) Dave Bancroft. First time on my ballot. My dearth of infielders has led to a reassessment of how I measure fielding. Bancroft played all-time defense and seemed to be comparable to Sewell for awhile there.
15) Luis Tiant. I tend to believe WARP when it comes to pitchers, and Tiant’s career and prime numbers are decent on that count.

Nellie Fox - Like Chris Cobb, I think I slightly prefer Dave Bancroft. Fox is about #24 or #25 right now, but that’s significant movement upwards from where he was before.
Pete Browning, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller - I think these marginal peak-only candidates are being overrated by the electorate. Keller is very similar to Kiner, and probably the only one that will ever make my ballot.
Rollie Fingers - I’m going to be conservative and place him off-ballot for now, until I can get a firmer handle on how many relievers I want to honour.
   115. DavidFoss Posted: December 11, 2006 at 08:32 AM (#2257727)
1991 Ballot

1. Rod Carew (ne) -- Solid six year peak on top of a 131 OPS+ 10k PA career. For a guy that spent the first half of his career at 2B, that's an easy HOM choice.
2. Larry Doyle (4) -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
3. John McGraw (5) -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
4. Gavvy Cravath (6) -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
5. Dick Redding (7) -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play.
6. Roger Bresnahan (8) -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
7. Charlie Keller (9) -- With war credit, his peak ranks right up with guys like Kiner. Will he get into the HOM before the great flood of expansion era hitters clogs the backlog?
8. Charley Jones (10) -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
9. Al Rosen (11) -- For five years, he was one of the greatest hitting 3B of all time.
10. Pete Browning (12) -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.
11. Bob Elliott (13) -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
12. Mickey Welch (14) -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
13. Frank Chance (15) -- Great high OBP 1B of the dead ball era.
14. Edd Roush (nr) -- Great hitting CF-er of the 1910 & 20s. Definitely hit well enough. In-season durability issues have kept him out so far.
15. Rollie Fingers (ne) -- High-IP per season, very effective reliever. JoeD's analysis bumps him up onto the ballot.
16-20. Lombardi, BJohnson, Fox, Beckley, DMoore
21-25. Trouppe, FHoward, Cash, Bando, Leach,
26-30. JWynn, Cepeda, Singleton, Brock, Staub
   116. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 11, 2006 at 02:25 PM (#2257776)
40 ballots tallied so far.

Still missing ballots from: andrew seigel, SWW, Mike
Webber, James Newburg, DanG, mulder and scully, Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, Ardo, Vaux, fra paolo, Tom D, Craig K, and rdfc.

Since the third spot is highly competitive, no ballots will be accepted after 8 PM EDT. Please don't submit a last second ballot if that's at all possible. Thanks!
   117. Ken Fischer Posted: December 11, 2006 at 02:50 PM (#2257782)
1991 Ballot

1-Rod Carew 384 WS
Best on the ballot. Wouldn’t be #1 most years. Solid career value. Numbers are similar to Boggs & Gwynn.

2-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
How can we forget that 1885 season!

5-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

6-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

7-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

8-Rollie Fingers 188 WS
Best reliever to come on the ballot in awhile. Hard to judge…he may move up next time.

9-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

10-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

11-Ken Boyer 279 WS
Boyer was overshadowed by Santo and perhaps his own teammates.

12-Dobie Moore
We’re taking a lot on hearsay…but I’ve been swayed by the argument he had a great peak.

13-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

14-Luis Tiant 256 WS

15-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete’s back on my ballot after many years. The Players League year shows he was the real deal.

Fox & Wynn are in my top 25. They’re getting close. My loyalty and belief in Van Haltren, Welch, Johnson, Schang & Stephens keep them out of the top 15. I’m missing something on Keller…he has less than 4000 at bats and was pushed out of the Yankees outfield by guys like Woodling & Bauer. I’m surprised by his strong support.


16-Lou Brock 348 WS
17-Tony Mullane 399 WS
18- Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
19-Nellie Fox 304 WS
20-Jim Wynn
   118. andrew siegel Posted: December 11, 2006 at 03:28 PM (#2257804)
(1) Carew (new)--I agree with the consensus. He is somewhere around the midpoint of the HoM. An easy #1.

(2) Keller (4th)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). The only player on the ballot who played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner, Berger, and Chance only reached for 4 or 5.

(3) Roush (5th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except Morgan and the third basemen. A star in his own time--a decent fielding CF always near the league lead in OBP.

(4) Bob Johnson (6th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(5) Bridges (8th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. Jumps Cash b/c/ I'm moving all pitchers up a tad this week.

(6) Cash (7th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(7) Trouppe (10th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's. The biggest surprise of this whole project.

(8) Wynn (11th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers.

(9) Leach (9th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. Downgraded the value of his CF seasons a tad this week.

(10) Boyer (12th)--Did it all well for just long enough. Somewhere around the #17 3B of All-Time.

(11) Elliot (13th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(12) Oms (14th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up.

(13) Cravath (15th)--I've got no problem giving minor league credit and that brings him on ballot. Looking at the total package he offered, however, my personal jury is still out. A great hitter, but so where Jones, Browning, Fournier, Tiernan, Frank Howard, etc. He feels like one of those. Career length comparison to those others gets him on the ballot, but it is tenuous.

(14) Shocker (nr/21st)--In trying to figure out who got the last two ballot slots, my top candidates were initially Duffy, Van Haltren, Beckley, Singleton, Reggie Smith, Cepeda, Chance, and CHarley JOnes. At some point, I finally got the hint that this isn't the Hall of Meritorious OF and 1B. Shocker was my next highest rated player and had a substantial lead over the next pitcher. In what is really about a 40-way tie for the last 2 or 3 spots, I am most comofrtable with him (for now).

(15) Fingers (new)--I thought his numbers wouldn't measure up, but I forgot post-season credit. Using my treatment of Koufax as a precedent, I gave him double credit for every post-season inning. When you do that and take leverage into account, he ends up looking very similar to Shocker; just a smidge behind Bridges.


There are arguments for Fox; I just wish he had a little more offense and, therefore, like others better (he's in the low 30's).

I once had Dobie Moore 1st on my ballot, but now have him around 50th. The difference is that I had originally projected a historic peak for him, but the latest numbers don't support it.

Browning has durability, fielding, and competition issues. His hitting is good enough to overcome 2 out of the 3 but not all of them. When I take appropriate account of all three, I have him down in the 30's.

Rusty Staub is like some of the long career pitchers-- a peak/prime candidate masquearading as a career candidate b/c/ of useless bulk added at the end of the career. As a peak/prime candidate, he is in the top 35, but ranks slightly behind contemporaries Smith, Singleton, and Bonds.
   119. TomH Posted: December 11, 2006 at 04:08 PM (#2257833)
Luv your ballot, andrew, but I couldn't pass this one up:

(2) Keller --Identical to Allen offensively..... With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner, Berger, and Chance only reached for 4 or 5.

1941-46 (Charlie missed part of 45 and all of 44), Keller amassed 144 win shares in 627 games, =35 per 154G.
1903-07 Frank Chance amassed 143 Win Shares in 614 games, =36 per 154G
.
Extend out to 8 years:
1939-46 ..Keller 190 WS in 876 G, =33 per 154G
1903-10 Chance 187 WS in 836 G, =33 per 154G

Pretty comparable 8 yr run :)
   120. DanG Posted: December 11, 2006 at 05:35 PM (#2257913)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady excellence over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #2 and #3 were elected again. Carew is the n-b in 1991; Staub, Fingers and Oliver will generate discussion. The last Elect-2 year in 1992 elects Seaver and Rose(?), and crowds the backlog with Grich, Perez, Cedeno, Harrah and Foster. Another treasure horde of HoMers in 1993: Mr. October, Lefty and Knucksie; The Penguin and Porter may also get some support. A really interesting mix of newbies in 1994: Simmons, Sutton, Nettles, Concepcion, Cruz Guidry and Sutter.

1) Rod Carew – Among the top 100 all-time.

2) George Van Haltren (4,5,2) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1982 to 1988, he went from the #8 unelected player to #16. We’ve now elected 11 players who were behind him in 1970. Why? Now in his 83rd year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

3) Edd Roush (5,6,3) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Played 89.2% of his games in CF. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. The last four elections have seen him move into position for eventual election. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

4) Tommy Leach (6,7,4) – Cracked the top twenty in voting in 1988 for the first time since 1949. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

5) Jake Beckley (7,8,5) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

6) Charlie Keller (8,10,7) – Kiner’s election should cinch his. Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with OPS within .090 of CK’s, 1938-51, minimum 4500 PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize
5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine

7) Burleigh Grimes (9,9,6) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


8) Ken Boyer (10,12,11) – Evidence that he deserves a year or so for war credit moves him up. His adjusted WS go to ~305.

9) Rusty Staub – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3.

10) Roger Bresnahan (11,11,9) – A couple more voters now (11) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

11) Jimmy Ryan (12,13,10) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. To those 12 voters who had GVH in their top eleven last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

12) Rabbit Maranville (13,14,13) – My other Lost Cause, along with Ryan. Fifth time on ballot. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

13) Quincy Trouppe (14,--,--) – Second time on ballot. Recent discussion shows me he’s the most deserving NeL candidate out there, all the signs are positive. He may very well be the best catcher candidate as well.

14) Wally Schang (15,15,12) –There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

15) Rollie Fingers – Definitely a bubble candidate. It all depends on what angle you view him from. One of four pitchers with 1500 relief IP, there may never be another. OK, so maybe he’s the Grimes of RP’s.

Top tenners off ballot:

Fox has been on my ballot and will be again. Weaker league weighs him down a little.

Moore used to get my vote, but I’m not so sure his peak was really Jennings-esque, so he’s slipped a bit.

Wynn is a bit short on career, but definitely on my radar. Would be on if he’d played more center field.

Browning and Jones are lagging among the 19th century OF candidates; nice peaks in very weak leagues. Also, I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing a couple more bats from that era.
   121. Esteban Rivera Posted: December 11, 2006 at 05:55 PM (#2257933)
1991 Ballot:

1. Rod Carew – Tops this year’s ballot.

2. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Edd Roush – Appears to be an error of omission. With considerations for hold out credit.

6. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

7. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

8. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

9. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

10. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

11. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

12. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

13. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

14. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

15. Rollie Fingers – Given some post-season credit lands him just on the ballot. His career taken all together, is around the bubble.

16. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

17. Ken Boyer – Giving him a little war credit nudges him into the top 20.

18. Quincey Trouppe – All evidence points to him being a good to great hitter for his position and a solid if not good catcher. Works for me

19. Gavvy Cravath – One of the enigmas in terms of career interpretation. His career in the majors combined with my interpretation of the other information places him here.

20. Tony Lazzeri – Agree with others that he has been somewhat overlooked by the electorate. Given credit for time in the PCL.


Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Jimmy Wynn – In my top 30.

Charlie Keller – Gets some credit but not enough to overcome the playing time issues to get him on my ballot. In my top 25.
   122. DL from MN Posted: December 11, 2006 at 06:30 PM (#2257957)
Thane, I'm a bit puzzled by Staub 2nd, Ben Taylor 4th, Jake Beckley 22nd. The consensus is if either Staub or Taylor were better than Beckley it wasn't by much.
   123. SWW Posted: December 11, 2006 at 06:30 PM (#2257958)
Ah, 1991. Sitting next to a devout Braves fan as Kirby Puckett steps to the plate. Not a happy place to be, as it turned out.

<u>1991 Ballot</u>
1) Rodney Cline Carew
A base-hit machine. At the high end on almost every scale I use. I remember when the Angels signed him, and that seemed like a very big deal. 38th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 51st on SABR Top 100. 61st on Sporting News Top 100. 64th on Bill James Top 100. 80th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 21st on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. Perilously close to cracking the top 20 one of these days. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
4) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
5) Carl William Mays
The career numbers come out the same with Luis Tiant, but Mays has better seasons and more milestones. Comes out better on ink, too. I wonder if Tiant is going to become my new Billy Pierce: a better-loved pitcher who Mays outperforms in my analysis.
6) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position. I have him ahead of Bando, but I’m not sure he’s this far ahead. That deserves another look. 5 Top 10 WS seasons are nothing at which to sneeze.
7) Hugh Duffy
Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time. I dropped him a bit, though, because the peakishness of his career does not thrill me, when compared with Mays, Boyer, and Freehan.
8) Louis Clark Brock
It’s possible that WS overrate him, and players like George Van Haltren or Mickey Welch have comparable career WS and don’t appear on my ballot. However, I remain a career voter at heart, and he ranks well over the long run. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons (134 and 3, respectively) far outstrip some of the guys he’s being compared to, like Jake Beckley and Sam Rice. I’m still listening to everyone’s arguments, but I feel he’s earned a spot on my ballot. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
9) Roland Glen Fingers - "Rollie"
As we sort out relief pitchers, factors like post-season success, seasonal awards, and black/grey ink take on added importance. I rank him second to Wilhelm among relievers we’ve seen so far, and possibly merits a higher ranking that this cautious first assessment. Also, DanG calls him “the Grimes of RP’s”, which seems almost calculated to get my attention. 76th on SABR Top 100. 82nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 97th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) Edd J Roush
I’ve always liked his career stats, and the recent discussion of time missed helps to reinforce my earlier view that he is a worthy candidate. So many center fielders, though.
11) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Like so many of the very good Negro League stars, very difficult to get a handle on. Remains this high thanks to my support for Mays, who has strikingly similar arcs.
12) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
13) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Moving him up a notch. An impressive career considering his late start. Of the guys who are all career and no peak, he’s the one I would induct first.
14) Daniel Joseph Staub – “Rusty”
I always felt like guys who bounced from team to team were lacking in some intangible area, but these numbers send the message that some guys were just meant to roam. All those Win Shares make me think he could go higher, but lower Ink, Monitor, and Standards scores may push him down the list. Hail le Grand Orange. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 93rd on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
15) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but there’s Rice right up there. Stronger prime sets him apart, but he’s not especially outstanding, which concerns me.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
James Sherman Wynn
I’ve got a lot of center fielders jockeying for position on my ballot. Wynn fares better than I expected, with 6 Top 10 WS finishes and a solid career. His similarity to the newly-ascendent Roush helps his cause, but his flat career numbers work against him.
Walter Moore – “Dobie”
Reminds me of Hughie Jennings. I wasn’t that fond of his candidacy, either. An unfortunately short career, but a short career nonetheless.
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
Charles Ernest Keller
An enormous peak and the obvious need for war credit are in his favor. But I’m honestly not convinced that his peaks were as strong as those of guys like Kiner and Klein, who each just barely made it onto the bottom of my ballot. Like Moore, a career unfairly abbreviated.
   124. rawagman Posted: December 11, 2006 at 06:53 PM (#2257978)
DL - I have Taylor as an elect-me and Beckley is around 50 places lower. Staub is off in never-never land.
As Beckley gets the most ink, we are much more attuned to his short-comings.
   125. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: December 11, 2006 at 09:56 PM (#2258147)
I am at a borrowed computer in a borrowed office. So, this has to be brief.

1. Rod Carew - "I could never whack a ball with such velocity"
2. Lou Brock - The 3000 hits and 900 SB's go a long way with this voter.
3. Tony Oliva - Very high eight year peak. With more filler he would look better, but would not necessarily be better.
4. Jimmy Wynn
5. Rollie Fingers - One of the best of his era at what he did. Key guy on three championship teams.
6. Dobie Moore - .360 hitting SS
7. Ken Boyer - He's growing on me. Consistent excellence.
8. Orlando Cepeda - Excellence most of the time.
9. Nelson Fox - I'm giving those MVP voters their due.
10. Carl Mays - Nasty pitcher. 80 or so games over .500.
11. Dizzy Dean - Someone else said it here last time. The HOM is about excellence and Dean provided it.
12. Edd Roush - I'd like more power from this era, but Roush had everything else in abundance.
13. Jake Beckley - Career value play.
14. Rusty Staub - I downgraded Beckley because of similarity in value to Rusty and then realized that I could have used the same logic to upgrade Rusty.
15. Luis Tiant - Had a couple of injury years (I think thats what they were) that broke up his career and obscured his excellence

I'm just not that comfortable with Browning yet. Keller's prime (and career) a bit short for me.
   126. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 11, 2006 at 10:29 PM (#2258179)
Here we go again . . .

Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

Here goes:

1. Rod Carew 2B/1B (n/e) - Slammalamma Ding-Dong. Very easy choice as the #1. If you call him a 2B, I have him behind only the big 3, Lajoie and Gehringer. If put him on the 1B list instead (but include his time as a 2B0, he's only clearly behind Gehrig and maybe Foxx, right in the ballpark with the ABC guys. I'd definitely have him ahead of Mize and McCovey.

2. Gavy Cravath RF (4) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

3. Rollie Fingers RP (n/e) - Very easily the number 3 reliever we've seen through 1990, behind only Wilhelm and Gossage, way ahead of Sutter. He's the best I've found at preventing inherited runners from scoring. He was as leveraged as high as just about anyone. His peak is only beaten by Gossage (and Hiller if you call 1-year a peak). ERA+ severely understates how much he prevented runs from scoring, when I adjust for everything, I get his DRA+ at 124. His career was as long as any reliever except for Wilhelm. He's a laughably easy choice IMO, unless you think we should only have 1 or 2 relievers.

4. Jack Quinn SP (5) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

5. Charley Jones LF (6) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

6. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

7. Tommy Bridges SP (8) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

8. Jake Beckley 1B (9) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

9. Charlie Keller LF (10) - Gave him minor league credit for 1938, when he was clearly major league quality, and I threw in war credit. He comes out way ahead of Kiner once I do this.

10. Thurman Munson C (11) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

11. Wally Schang C (12) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bennett and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense was questionable.

12. Ben Taylor 1B (13) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

13. Pie Traynor 3B (14) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one. He gets another bump this week. I don't agree with rating Boyer above him. Traynor far outhit his 3B peers relative to Boyer and his.

14. Dave Bancroft SS (15) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

15. Jim Fregosi SS (16) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

Honorable Mention:

16. Burleigh Grimes SP (17) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.

17. Norm Cash 1B (18) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

18. Dobie Moore SS (19) - Tough to get right, but I'm feeling a little more peaky this time around.

19. Roger Bresnahan C/OF (20) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

20. Quincy Trouppe C (21) - Convince me that I should have him higher than Bresnahan . . . not being sarcastic.

21. Phil Rizzuto SS (22) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

22. Rusty Staub RF (n/e) - Could push him higher, I like career candidates with nice peaks, and from 1967-71 Staub was one of the best players in baseball.

23. Don Newcombe SP (23) - Gets color-line and Korea credit.

24. Cecil Travis SS (24) - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

25. Tony Lazzeri 2B (25) - Great hitter for a 2B. Short career and fielding keep him from being higher.

26. Waite Hoyt SP (26) - Peak is nothing special, but good pitcher for a long time.

27. Bucky Walters SP (27) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though.

28. Bob Johnson LF (28) - Overlooked star, not much difference between Johnson and Medwick.

29. Jimmy Wynn CF (29) - I thought I'd have him higher. Man this ballot is jammed with great players.

30. Bert Campaneris SS (30) - He would be much higher if I only compared him to his peers. SS didn't hit at all when he played (average OWP for SS during his career was .370). I split the difference and here is where he ends up. I could see moving him higher.

31. Ken Singleton RF (31) - I've got him as very similar to Henrich. Singleton lasted longer (ever after accounting for the war), but Henrich was a much better fielder. Henrich had more power and Singleton more OBP. But when you add it all up, their overall value was quite similar.

32. Tommy Henrich RF (32) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

33. Nellie Fox 2B (33) - Long solid career at a key position.

34. Luis Tiant SP (34) - Very nice career. Could see ranking him a little higher.

35. Ken Boyer 3B (35) - I've moved him up some, but I don't think he's anywhere near the class of the backlog.

36. Gene Tenace C/1B (36) - Could go higher than this, just a machine as a hitter, and 900 games caught. Kind of a poor man's Joe Torre.

37. Alejandro Oms OF (37) - Pretty good hitter, conservative ranking, I really don't have a handle on him.

38. Reggie Smith OF (38) - Very good player, but missed a lot of time in his good years. Only played 150 games 3 times.

39. Dick Redding SP (39) - I'm just not seeing what everyone else does for some reason.

40. Dutch Leonard SP (40) - Pretty good pitcher at his best. Never had the one huge year, but had a bunch of very good ones.

41. John McGraw 3B (41) - If only he could have stayed in the lineup more.

Edd Roush - Apologies to Mike Webber about 1990, not sure what came over me. He's every close to this ballot, and I can't argue with guys that vote for him.

Pete Browning - Not terribly close to making my ballot. Weak leagues and bad D, back when D mattered the most. I think he was a good hitter for a few years, but his career was short. I pretty much an in agreement with the deflation WARP shows for him. I think electing him would be similar to electing Juan Gonzalez.

Jerry Koosman - Better than I realized. Peak was nothing special, but his long, valuable career gets him up to #52 on my pitcher list through the current eligibles, right around Larry French, Herb Pennock and Bobo Newsom.

Steve Rogers - One of my all-time favorites, we share a birthday (he's 23 years older), and he was integral to the Expo teams I grew up a huge of. His peak would be good enough to get him in if he had 2 more years like 1979 he'd be equivalent to a guy like Billy Pierce. One heckuva forgotten pitcher.
   127. Thane of Bagarth Posted: December 11, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#2258194)
Thane, I'm a bit puzzled by Staub 2nd, Ben Taylor 4th, Jake Beckley 22nd. The consensus is if either Staub or Taylor were better than Beckley it wasn't by much.

I think it would be fair to say that the distance between #2 and #22 on my ballot is not much. The main difference between Staub and Beckley in my ranking lies in their top-5 consecutive seasons in Win Shares--before schedule adjustments, Beckley has 97, and Staub has 145. On a tight ballot, that makes a big difference, even after schedule adjustments close the gap by about 20%. As for Taylor, I think I might be his "best friend" or one of them, so I'm liable to not agree so much with the consensus view of him vs. Beckley.
   128. mulder & scully Posted: December 11, 2006 at 11:00 PM (#2258207)
1991 Ballot: Truncated list. See last year's ballot for all the info.

PHOM: 1991: Rod Carew, Lou Boudreau, Al Spalding

1. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): The weight of the evidence.

2. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906): The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread.

3. Charlie Keller (PHOM 1957): MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder

4. Rod Carew (PHOM 1991): Ranks as the 10th best second baseman and 17th best first basemen so split the difference.
Top 15 position player in league in 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977,

5. Quincy Troupe (PHOM 1960): A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 1980.

6. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921): Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time.

7. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919): A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him.

8. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958): Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers.

9. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966): Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever.

10. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979): Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis.

11. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942): Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906.

12. Dobie Moore (PHOM 1967): Banks before Banks. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1980 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers.

13. Jimmy Wynn (PHOM 1984): 4 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors. Best centerfielder eligible from Mays until ... Dale Murphy?

14. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.

15. Roush (PHOM 1940): 3 MVP type years, excellent defense.
   129. mulder & scully Posted: December 11, 2006 at 11:14 PM (#2258215)
16. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964):
17. Rollie Fingers: I’m still not sure about him. Without him, the A’s don’t win at least one World Series. He was very durable for a very long time. He didn’t have the peak of a Gossage or a Hiller or a Sutter. Could move up or down in near future.
18. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985):
19: Cooper, Wilbur (PHOM 1985):
20: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961):
21. Don Newcombe:
22. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987):
23. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987):
24. Jack Fournier:
25. Frank Howard:
26. Luke Easter:
27. Herman Long:
28. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975):
29. Al Rosen:
30. Ken Singleton:
31. Orlando Cepeda:
32. Vern Stephens:
33. Elston Howard:
34. Sal Bando:
35. Dizzy Dean:
36. Wally Berger:
37. John McGraw:
38. Norm Cash:
39. Nellie Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
Top 10 in league in 1952, 1954, 1955, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960 (11th in 1951, 1953): .
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/24th t, 8th t/14th t, 5th/14th t, 3rd/6th, 10th t/17th t, 1st t/5th t, 9th t/22nd t,
Best 2b in league in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1960. In majors in 1955, 1957, 1959, 1960 t.

40. Wally Schang:
41. Bob Elliott:
42. Jack Stivetts:
43. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939):
44. Mike Tiernan:
45. Luis Tiant:
46. Sal Maglie:
47. Carl Mays:
48. Monroe, Bill:
49. George Scales:
50. Hippo Vaughn:
51. Thurman Munson:
52. Gene Tenace:
53. Lon Warneke:
54. Ken Boyer: Next third baseman after Lyons and Williamson. Scratch that. Reviewed his record and moved into the top 50, almost.
Top 10 in league in 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/14th t, 8th/17th t, 4th/5th t, 7th/14th t, 9th t/16th t. (12th in 1956, 17th t in 1962, 1963)
Best 3rd baseman in never (see Eddie Mathews, Dick Allen, Ron Santo). In majors in see previous. Late catch, a tie with Mathews in 1958.

55. Bus Clarkson:
56. Urban Shocker:
57. Fielder Jones:
58. Denny Lyons:
59. Ed Williamson:
60: Bobby Bonds:

Rusty Staub: Below 60th. Pretty good prime, good career, ok peak. Not enough. Way too many high quality outfielders during his career for him to be a HoMer
   130. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: December 12, 2006 at 12:04 AM (#2258243)
Oh, hell, another backlog election already? I guess with the elect-3 years, they’ll be coming fast and furious. I definitely think with (so far) Smith, Bonds, Singleton and Staub, we’re finding another OF glut. Will it be like the 1890s, where we’ve never managed to settle on any of them? (Unless Keeler and Kelley were considered part of it. It’s been a while) Or will it be like the 30s, where Averill and Medwick eventually worked their way in, and Bob Johnson was unjustly tossed to the side.

(I swear I was just free associating there. This is a coincidence.) Carew, Bob Johnson and Edd Roush make my PHoM this year.

1. Rod Carew (new) The only HoMer to be name-checked in an Adam Sandler song? Definitely well ahead of the rest of the group.

2. Jimmy Wynn (4) I do sort of worry that I'm just voting for the uber-stats, but the more I've looked at him, the more I like him. Out of all the “pure” CF candidates currently out there, his OPS+ beats everyone but Wally Berger, who has other issues. Made my PHoM in 1985.

3. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. And honestly, outside of having the statistics, I don’t know of any particular advantage Nellie Fox has over him. Made my PHoM in 1939.

4. Quincy Trouppe (6) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

5. George Van Haltren (7) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

6. Dobie Moore (8) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

7. Dick Redding (10) After reading Chris's interpretation of the HoF numbers, it does appear I need to pull him back a bit. Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

8. Gavvy Cravath (11) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

9. Jake Beckley. (12) I still think his typical season was pretty weak for a HoM candidate, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Made my PHoM in 1987.

10. Bob Johnson (14) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am. Makes my PHoM this year.

11. Tommy Leach (9) Dropped because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

12. Ken Boyer (13) Moves up because he missed time in the minors due to military service. It doesn't help his peak, but gives him enough of a career boost to move pass Clarkson. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question. Made my PHoM in 1987.

13. Edd Roush (18) I can surprise myself sometimes. I am still leery about giving out holdout credit, but even with the missed time, he does have a pretty good peak by WS. He’s pretty similar to Wynn, and I like Wynn a lot. (But Mike, Heinie Groh was better.) Makes my PHoM this year.

14. Bus Clarkson (15) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO. I really need to decide whether I’m going to accept the MLEs and put him in my PHoM, or don’t do so and drop him down.

(14A Biz Mackey, 14B Clark Griffith)

15. Reggie Smith (16) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him.

16. Norm Cash (17) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism).
17. Luis Tiant (19) After the deluge of 1970s-era pitchers, he’ll have to be reevaluated, but he could move up.
18. Phil Rizzuto (20) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
19. Charlie Keller (21) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
20. Nellie Fox (24) Not quite up to the standard of Doerr/Gordon/Childs, and the HoM is not notably short on 2Bmen.
21. Alejandro Oms (22) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.
22. Bobby Bonds (25) On further review, I was a bit too bullish on him, but he is quite good.
23. Sal Bando (23) A good hitter for a 3Bman, but doesn’t have the peak or all-around value of Boyer.
(23A Rube Foster, 23B Cool Papa Bell, 23C Max Carey)
24. Bucky Walters (29) I guess I am sort of light on pitchers, but for now I can’t put him any higher due to wartime.
25. Rusty Staub (new) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around.
(25A Ralph Kiner, 25B Sam Thompson, 25C Richie Ashburn)
26. Vern Stephens (26) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
27. Ken Singleton (27) Another stinkin' 70s OF candidate. Close in value to Bonds, although a very different type of player.
28. Dizzy Dean (45) All of a sudden, this just felt right. I am due to take another long look at the pitching candidates again.
29. Ben Taylor (28) A good player, especially with the pitching, but not quite there. If we included off-field accomplishments, could very well be a different story.
30. Elston Howard (31) Not really sure how much credit to give him for being blocked by Berra – has a bit of a “Bob Feller” issue with that.

31. Bob Elliott
32. Charley Jones (34) I do give him blacklist credit, but even so, he wasn’t quite dominant enough in his era for me.
33. Orlando Cepeda (30) More up-and-down than Cash, I generally lean more towards consistency.
(33A Hughie Jennings, 33B George Sisler)
34. Lou Brock
35. Rollie Fingers (new) First, I’m not convinced he’s really ahead of all the other reliever candidates, and second, I’m not convinced that he would be worth induction even if he was.
36. Dave Bancroft
37. Pete Browning (44) Not a long career, the AA discount, the terrible fielding. I know he could hammer the ball, but there are other guys who I think have more of an all-around argument. (Better him than Duffy, though.)
38. Tony Lazzeri
39. Don Newcombe
40. Frank Howard
   131. Andrew M Posted: December 12, 2006 at 12:09 AM (#2258245)
1991 Ballot

1. (new) Rod Carew. Easy choice in a year without any other obvious new candidates. It would have been interesting to see how he would have fared in our voting had he played only 1B.

2. (4) Dobie Moore. If you take into account his army years, he appears to have been a great player for more than a Jennings-esque 5 years--and high peak SS’s are hard to find.

3. (5) Nellie Fox. Durable (never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ is OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career.

4. (6) Larry Doyle. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs, slugging pct, OPS+. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. And, you know, Joe Morgan and Rod Carew weren’t great fielders either.

5. (7) Edd Roush. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF (according to Win Shares—WARP thinks less of his fielding) impresses me more than the other guys who have careers of comparable length.

6. (13) Charlie Keller. Only 4600 plate appearances. I suppose his rate stats benefit from not having a real decline phase, but there aren’t many guys who hit like he did through age 30.

7. (9) Dick Redding. Long career, decent peak. I’m not completely sold on him, but I don’t think he’s far off Jenkins. Honestly, though, this is just a guess.

8. (10) Tommy Bridges. Like Billy Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

9. (new) Bob Johnson. Back on the ballot. When I went over Wynn, Bonds, R. Smith, Singleton, and Staub I found I liked Indian Bob a little better than all of them. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10.

10. (new) Ken Boyer. In preparing my comment on why he wasn’t on my ballot, I came to realize I had been wrong. Boyer was a gold glove 3B who played every day and consistently finished in the top 10 in runs created, which most of you realized before I did. My bad.

11. (11) Jimmy Wynn. Another unusual, relatively brief, career, but he got on base a ton, hit for power, seems to have been a decent fielder, and had one of the best of all nicknames.

12. (12) Quincy Trouppe. I don’t have much of a sense of his defense, but assuming he was at least average, his hitting ability is enough to make him the highest rated catcher on my ballot.

13. (14) Tommie Leach. Long career, excellent fielder at both CF and 3B. Hit enough for 3B.

14. (13) George J. Burns. Arguably the best NL OF of the 1910s. Rarely missed a game, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade.

15. Dave Bancroft (new). Another guy I’ve looked at again and found ballot-worthy. Sort of a lesser version of Nellie Fox--Great glove at SS, league average hitter, walked a lot. Not as durable as Fox.

Next 13 (not necessarily in order)
Bob Elliott
Luis Tiant
Phil Rizzuto
Bucky Walters
Ken Singleton
Rollie Fingers
Alejandro Oms
George Van Haltren
Jimmy Ryan
Reggie Smith
Vern Stephens
Bobby Bonds
Herman Long

Required Disclosures:
Pete Browning. Just too many questions. Could certainly hit, though.
   132. Max Parkinson Posted: December 12, 2006 at 12:19 AM (#2258256)
1991 ballot (MP HoM in bold, this year we've got Carew and Keller for sure, and I'm still working on the 3rd):

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Rod Carew

Similar in value to Frisch and Robinson among 2Bman, middle of the pack of our electees. On this ballot - Hey, number 1!

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

4. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

5. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.
6. Dick Redding
7. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

10. Ben Taylor

I think of him as the best 1B between the ABC crew (not counting other hitter's sojourns at the position) and Gehrig.

11. Charlie Keller

He's been just off and just on my ballot for a while, but I've just hopscotched him over Burns and Veach, because at the end of it all - this is pretty darn close to the borderline of the MP Hall of Merit, and I'm more convinced that he should be in than either of them.

12. Rollie Fingers

Just borderline of my Hall right now. At this point, he's either the third or fourth greatest reliever of all time, but this Eckersley guy is doing really good things....and how many relievers will I want to enshrine at the end of the day? He'll probably make it in, but caution is the word for now.

13. George Burns

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams). Incidentally, one of the aspects of my system that I'm currently looking at is why Burns is here and Roush is 29 or so. To be honest, this isn't that far apart, but in many ways I see them as very similar - great LF vs. good CF (almost interchangeable, as what position one plays has as much to do with their teammates as their abilities), leadoff hitter types who ran well.

14. Bobby Veach

There's not a lot of shame in being the 3rd best OF in your league for a couple of years when the better two have the last names of Cobb and Speaker. If he had just one or two more REALLY GOOD or GREAT years, he would have been in a while ago.

15. Bucky Walters

Been sitting around here for years....

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Fox – 71.
Boyer – 39.
Roush – 29. He’s recently moved up about 10 spots.
Beckley – 64.
Wynn – 44.

I just don’t see any of these as particularly electable. I’m closest with Roush, but I fear that the gap between my HoM and the general one will grow once we get past the 89-92 rush.
   133. Patrick W Posted: December 12, 2006 at 12:42 AM (#2258283)
Reds over A’s is still gotta be the most surprising World Series result in my viewing experience.

1. Rod Carew (n/a), Minn. – Cal. (A), 1B / 2B (’67-’85) (1991) – The call is whether he’s in the top 25% of HoMers or just in the top 50%. His rank among the below doesn’t take nearly as much time.
2. Rollie Fingers (n/a), Oak. (A) – S.D. (N) RP (’70-’84) (1991) – 33% bonus on his pitching runs to account for leverage. This could be low, but I don’t think I can support using a higher multiplier.
3. Luis Tiant (4), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
4. Jim Kaat (5), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
5. Rusty Staub (n/a), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
6. Ken Boyer (6), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding-dominant infielders further down the ballot. And he was a good defender in his own right.
7. Jimmy Wynn (7), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) (1985) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
8. Dutch Leonard (8), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
9. Dizzy Trout (9), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
10. Norm Cash (10), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
11. Alejandro Oms (11), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
12. George Van Haltren (12), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
13. Ben Taylor (13), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – I am comfortable being Ben’s 2nd-3rd biggest fan.
14. Bob Johnson (14), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) (1985) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
15. Ken Singleton (15), Balt. (A), RF (’70-’84) – Worth some discussion. Just ahead of Bonds in the pecking order, both a little bit above Beckley.

Nellie Fox – Not the best glove man missing from the ballot.
Dobie Moore – Not enough career. Spot Poles and Bill Monroe – neither particularly close to the ballot anymore – are ranked higher on my ballot.
Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed above, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Charlie Keller – DiMaggio, Ryan and Hooper rank above him among the OF’s. I know each of them has previously appeared on my ballot, so I wouldn’t be surprised if I’ve given Keller a few votes over the years. A 23% bonus for war credit still leaves him short of 5,000 AB’s; it’ll be a hard sell to make the ballot again.
Edd Roush – I can’t even tell if career voters or peak voters should be voting for Roush. Near the bottom of the OF consideration set.

Five players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   134. Mike Webber Posted: December 12, 2006 at 01:08 AM (#2258302)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) ROD CAREW 384 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Wins Shares.
2) EDD ROUSH – 314 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Edd is better than Wynn. More career win shares, with out any schedule adjustment. Played his whole career in center field, while Wynn spent 1/3 of his career elsewhere while Ron Davis and Roland Office played center. Significant lead in both black and gray ink – both played in generally poor hitters parks.
3) JIMMY WYNN – 305 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Jimmy Wynn is better than Edd. PRO+ is slightly higher. Played in a tougher environment, especially when you add in the Federal League. While both played in poor hitters parks, Wynn’s style was more adversely affected by the Astrodome than Redland/Crosley Field hurt singles hitting Roush.
4) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
5) NELLIE FOX –304 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
6) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
7) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
8) SAL BANDO - I have had Boyer fairly high on my ballot and I think Bando is better. I’ve lowered Boyer and slotted Bando ahead of him. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
9) KEN BOYER
10) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
11) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
12) VIC WILLIS - an old favorite of mine, huge win share total, big seasons. Whenever I go to a more mechanical system he pops up the charts.
13) BOBBY MURCER - His big seasons put him ahead of Reggie Smith, and his defensive value is ahead of Singleton.
14) QUINCY TROUPPE - slotting him above Thurman Munson in the all time catcher ratings slides him into my ballot. I feel comfortable that he is ahead of Howard, Schang and Lombardi.
15) KEN SINGLETON 302 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Plenty of bat, leather might be a problem. The big seasons put him ahead of Reggie Smith.


Disclosures:

Dobie Moore great player in suspect leagues, who need all kinds of extra credit.

Charlie Keller – four MVP type seasons, I am not comfortable figuring MVP type seasons for 1944 and 1945. If you give him 30 win share seasons those two years I can see how you have him near the top of the ballot. That is my problem with Moore too, I just don’t see comping him in at MVP type performance.

Pete Browning – Weak league, shoddy fielding reputation, short career.

Newbies – Rusty Staub, near the bottom of my ballot, but Singleton’s big years edge him out.

Rollie Fingers – I have been thinking about what the minimum amount of career win shares it would take to make my ballot. Koufax has the fewest of any player I have voted for, 194 and he had 3 MVP type seasons. I know Fingers won an MVP, but I don’t think of that as an MVP type season.

Al Oliver – no MVP type seasons.
   135. KJOK Posted: December 12, 2006 at 01:22 AM (#2258317)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. ROD CAREW, 2B/1B. 40 POW, 384 Win Shares, 123 WARP1, 476 RCAP & .658 OWP in 10,550 PA’s. Def: FAIR. He’s not Joe Morgan, but he’s the best on the ballot this time.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

5. GENE TENACE, C/1B. 26 POW, 231 Win Shares, 73 WARP1, 244 RCAP & .670 OWP in 5,525 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Highly underrated, and very close to Bresnahan in performance.

6. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

7. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

8. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

9. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

10. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

11. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

14. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

15. JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 305 Win Shares, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Better than Kiner overall.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

RUSTY STAUB, RF. 23 POW, 358 Win Shares, 105 WARP1, 169 RCAP & .600 OWP in 11,229 PAs. Def: FAIR. Played for a long time, but doesn’t stand out vs. peers.

ROLLIE FINGERS, RP. 23 POW, 188 Win Shares, 80 WARP1, 103 RSAA, & 119 ERA+ in 1,701 innings. Even with post season and leverage, can’t match up to starters with that ERA+.

RETURNEES:

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, 93 WARP1, 129 RCAP & .483 OWP in 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Would rank Monroe ahead of him.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

EDD ROUSH, CF. 10 POW, 110 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .622 OWP in 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   136. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:00 AM (#2258341)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   137. Max Parkinson Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:00 AM (#2258342)
I don't believe it.
   138. sunnyday2 Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:05 AM (#2258345)
Max: Ditto me.
   139. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:12 AM (#2258349)
Thank you for e-mailing me, John. I just don't have the time this "year" to write up detailed reasons for my ballot ranking, and sunnyday is right when he says that I should provide such in order to have my vote counted. I'm going to put that stuff together now that I'm done grading term papers for the semester, and so I should be back next election.
   140. DL from MN Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:11 PM (#2258804)
> The call is whether [Carew]’s in the top 25% of HoMers or just in the top 50%

In my spreadsheet Carew IS the median HoM player.
   141. sunnyday2 Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:59 PM (#2258952)
DL,

Where is Killebrew?
   142. DL from MN Posted: December 12, 2006 at 06:29 PM (#2258986)
Tied with Carew. Actually the rankings are 1000.38 points for Carew and 999.95 points for Killebrew but to claim my spreadsheet should be accurate to that many decimal points is absurd. Johnny Mize and Fred Clarke are just ahead, Mickey Cochrane is just behind. Below 750 points gets dicey; Ruth scores 2591.
   143. sunnyday2 Posted: December 12, 2006 at 07:19 PM (#2259046)
My uber-stat has Killebrew 228 Carew 245, but subjectively I know Killebrew was more valuable.

Ruth is 491. Cochrane 232, Mize 255, Clarke 192. Below 150 gets dicey.

Others between 228 and 245: Hartnett, Dickey, Campy; McGwire, Greenberg and McCovey; Jackie Robinson; Yount and Banks; Simmons, Medwick, Kiner; Crawford, Waner, Heilmann, Clemente; Carlton and Spalding.

Except this isn't really my uber-stat anymore, I use it to build my consideration sets. So like I say, I would have Killebrew ahead of Carew on my ballot if necessary.
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