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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, January 15, 2007

1993 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Reggie Jackson, Steve Carlton, Phil Niekro, Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Madlock, Darrell Porter, Cecil Cooper and Hal McRae.

Top-ten returnees: Pete Rose, Pete Browning, Nellie Fox, Jimmy Wynn, Charlie Keller, Quincey Trouppe, Edd Roush and Rollie Fingers.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 15, 2007 at 02:57 PM | 144 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Jeff M Posted: January 20, 2007 at 03:41 PM (#2283538)
1993 Ballot

1. Carlton, Steve – Pitching in mostly hitter friendly ballparks, he still stuffed the stat sheet, particularly with wins and strikeouts. Four Cy Youngs is nothing to sneeze at, even after Clemens.

2. Rose, Pete – My least favorite player of all time, but that’s not factored in. Nor is his gambling. You could pencil him into the top 10 each year in hits, doubles and runs. A guy like this should have walked more, though.

3. Niekro, Phil – I expected him to sail into the HoM on career numbers, but his peaks were a lot better than I thought. You couldn’t get two pitchers any different than Carlton and Niekro in real life, but their stats turn out to be pretty similar.

4. Jackson, Reggie – I use several different measures, and the one that hurts Jackson is season length adjusted WARP1, and to a lesser extent, his defense. Surprisingly, he barely edges Jones for the #4 spot.

5. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

6. Browning, Pete – He proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

7. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

8. Fingers, Rollie – One of the few relief pitchers from this era that arguably deserves a spot in the HoM. One of the first consistently good relievers used as a true closer.

9. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust, but he still fares well overall. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position in the outfield, I rank him higher than Williams.

10. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhit the average batter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

11. Dean, Dizzy -- Hard to get this high a ballot position with only five or so seasons, but Dean is the exception.

12. McGraw, John -- Has always lingered near the bottom of the ballot because of that OBP, good defense, and his position occupying a more difficult slot on the defensive spectrum during his era.

13. Roush, Edd -- 300+ WS; 100+ WARP1; normalized .322/.368/.444; good grey ink; and an above average defender in the outfield.

14. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years.

15. Keller, Charlie -- Another solid year and he’s in the middle of the ballot. I certainly don’t doubt his abilities. He's much better than Wynn, even with the shortened career.


Required Disclosure(s):

Trouppe, Quincy – Not ballot worthy based on the things we know.

Wynn, Jimmy – Barely in my consideration set. Can’t give him much credit for being a centerfielder because he probably shouldn’t have been there. He seems like a candidate only for extreme peak voters, and even then it seems a stretch to consider him as a truly great player, even as a backlogger.

Fox, Nellie – Just off the ballot at #16. He was pretty much tied with Boyer in my system.
   102. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 20, 2007 at 04:23 PM (#2283549)
1993 ballot

Jackson, Rose, and Carlton make my PHOM

I am heading out of town today until monday so this will be a short ballot. The comments on #'s 5-15 haven't changed in the last 5-6 years so hopefully you will forgive me.

Rose, Carlton, and Jackson make my PHOM

1. Pete Rose - A series of 28-31 WS seasons gives him the highest peak on the ballot in my system, believe it or not.
2. Steve Carlton - Best Phillies pitcher ever?
3. Reggie Jackson - Could have been #1 if he had more in season durability and therefore is overrated by OPS+
4. Phil Niekro - Kind of a shame that he has to wait a year for my PHOM. Really isn't that much worse than Rose.
5. Charlie Keller - Seriously can't believe he is this low
6. Hugh Duffy - Nice peak, deserves credit for his teams overachievement.
7. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era.
8. Bucky Walters - Great peak
9. Jimmy Wynn - Underrated due to his era and park
10. Quincey Trouppe - Better than Mackey IMO
11. Elston Howard - Very similar player to Trouppe
12. Pete Browning - Monster hitter who would be higher if not for AA discount
13. Gavvy Cravath - Best HR hitter of the 1910's.
14. Dizzy Dean - Sandy Koufax Lite
15. Alejandro Oms - ust a smidge better than Geroge Van Hatren

Top 10's
17. Rollie Fingers - Pushed off due to strong incoming class, will be back
21. Nellie Fox - Has been just off my ballot for decades. I may not get to vote for him before he gets elected.
24. Edd Roush - In season durability problems, for whatever reason, keep him this low.

Newbies - of the host of 2nd and 3rd tier newbies, none make my top 60 (where I stop ranking players). Ron Cey is the closest, however.
   103. Michael Bass Posted: January 20, 2007 at 08:12 PM (#2283651)
(You are not alone.)

Yup, been the two of us (me of course off and on) for quite a while. Wonder when the last vote from someone else other than us for DUnlap was?

Carlton was a good not great batter, .201 with a little pop, 33 OPS+ and 98 runs created.
Niekro, .169 with half the taters, 8 OPS+ and 60 runs created.


Good catch, I stated that imprecisely. What I meant to say was if you took away both of their best years, Niekro beat Carlton in every possible measure of value in my system: peak, prime, career, X-best years, etc. Obviously, there were many ways (less reliant on defense, offense, etc.) that Carlton was better than Niekro.

Niekro's three best seasons were widely separated and he surpassed ERA+ 125 only those three times.

Fair point, but Niekro didn't toss up any sub-100 OPS+ years between his best years. His only truly mediocre season in the middle of his prime was one 101 ERA+ year (which Carlton also added in), the rest was 110 or better. Carlton, meanwhile, had 5 seasons under 110 OPS+ in periods between his 3 best seasons.
   104. Paul Wendt Posted: January 21, 2007 at 12:37 AM (#2283712)
Jeff M #101
7. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM

Frank Manush or Henry Manush?

Mark S #102
2. Steve Carlton - Best Phillies pitcher ever?

No.
Maybe most valuable to the Phillies, with 14 seasons to Alexander's 7.
   105. EricC Posted: January 21, 2007 at 01:16 AM (#2283719)
1993 ballot.

1. Pete Rose One of the great careers of all time. Played a greater proportion of his career at "bat" positions than I would have suspected. Huge in-season durability, playing 90 percent or more of team games 20 straight years. (But should have retired after 1982).

2. Reggie Jackson Reggie! Reggie!

3. Phil Niekro Only pitcher to win 200 games after his 35th birthday; I'd vote this as one of the most amazing feats in baseball history. (The vote is on the totally of his record, of course).

4. Steve Carlton If I gave a bonus points for 'he seemed to have a mystique", I'd put him above Niekro.

5. Wally Schang Generally all-star level of play at C 1913-1920; one of better catchers for most of long career afterwards; career leader in WS among C upon retirement. At the Freehan/Torre level, when one takes into account that in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards.

6. Charlie Keller Consistent all-star to MVP level of play at corner OF 1939-1947, with a peak that looks as high and more sustained to me than Kiner's did. Believe that his peak would have been maintained during WWII and thus give war credit at this level.

7. Nellie Fox Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to some peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s IF, helps to boost his chance of eventual election. For those who don't get it, note the value of his "A" defense.

8. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). Maybe I should call all the bats that crowd the bottom half of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates".

9. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

10. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

11. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

12. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does help point to two reasons for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that, while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way.

13. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

14. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

15. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers (which I reckon is near Ted Simmons level- wonder how Ted will do?), but I rate catchers higher than most.

Jimmy Wynn is HoM-worthy, but was squeezed out of this crowded ballot.

Edd Roush was the 43rd greatest ML CF and 428th greatest ML player.

Pete Browning was the 45th greatest ML CF and 463rd greatest player. A much lower career WARP3 than any outfielder ever elected to the HoM, his election would almost certainly be a mistake. A near-exact equivalent from modern times is Danny Tartabull. People use Brownings age 28 career year 169 OPS+ in the 1890 PL (not a historically strong league, by the way) as a argument that he could hit "anytime anywhere". Danny Tartabull had an age 28 career year 171 OPS+ in the strong 1991 AL. Does that prove that Tartabull could hit anytime anywhere, and should be elected to the HoM?

Fingers looks to me like a "career reliever" candidate, like Lee Smith. This type does not come out highly in my system, though I can see the argument for having more relievers than I'm likely to put in my PHoM. What I would like to see is a database that separates relief innings pitched and relief ERA+ from starter innings pitched and starting ERA+ by pitcher and by season.

Trouppe's record doesn't look any more impressive to me than that of Bruce Petway or Ted Radcliffe.
   106. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 21, 2007 at 01:47 AM (#2283721)
Jeff M #101
7. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM

Frank Manush or Henry Manush?


Maybe Jeff means Muddy Waters (that's for the blues fans here :-)
   107. dan b Posted: January 21, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2283741)
1. Jackson Mr October never bet on baseball.
2. Highlights from David Letterman’s top ten reasons <u>not</u> to suspend Pete Rose from baseball: #10 – Really young gamblers need a role model. #7 – He kept his promise to kid in hospital: “I’m putting 50 bucks on today’s game for you, son” #5 - He bet five grand they would suspend him and will make 50 grand at 10 to 1 odds. #4 – No casino greeter jobs currently open. #3 – Baseball needs that professional wrestling pizzazz of being fixed. #2 - How can you suspend Off Track Betting’s “Man of the Year” #1 – Betting slips, fingerprints, handwriting, telephone records, sworn depositions – come on! Let’s have some real proof!
3. Carlton Whether you prefer peak or career, Lefty's got plenty.
4. Keller PHoM 1967. 1989 re-evaluation moves him ahead of Duffy in my backlog. Now giving him 20 WS for 1938, 32 WS for 1944 and 1945. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
5. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
6. Roush PHoM 1942. Better than Ashburn
7. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
8. Niekro I prefer more peak from my pitchers.
9. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
10. Wynn, J PHoM 1986. NHBA #10 CF.
11. Fox, N PHoM 1987.If Maz could hit like Nellie, the 1960 WS hero would have been elected by now.
12. Bando Close to Boyer, James has him ahead and may be right. Expect he will be a PhoMer. NHBA #11.
13. Howard, E NHBA #15
14. Singleton Looks great when compared to a lot of Frankie Frisch’s teammates that are in the other Hall.
15. Munson NHBA #14
16. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
17. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds, but ….
18. Bonds, Bo … Barry’s dad was pretty good.
19. Rizzuto 1993 reevaluation moves him up.
20. Leach PHoM 1926.
21. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
22. Cooper, W PHoM 1942.
23. Burns, G. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median.
24. Berger
25. Perez
26. Staub
27. Newcombe Giving more war and mle credit (1993)
28. Cepeda
29. Tiant
30. Browning PHoM 1912.
31. Cash, N
32. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
33. Mays, C
34. Doyle PHoM 1930.
35. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
36. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
37. Grimes
38. Ryan
39. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan?
40. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles and Dobie Moore.
41. Elliott
42. Brock not enough peak to be higher
43. Pinson
44. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
45. Rosen If Moore, why not Rosen? If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
46. Arlett
47. Traynor
48. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
49. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
50. Murcer
51. Cey
52. Mazeroski
53. Fingers
54. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s
55. Heinie Mannish?
   108. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 21, 2007 at 04:51 AM (#2283759)
(You are not alone.)

The call came from inside the house.... You've got to get out of there!!!

Maybe Jeff means Muddy Waters (that's for the blues fans here :-)

You mean McKinley Morganfield? ; )
   109. Sean Gilman Posted: January 21, 2007 at 10:21 AM (#2283806)
Pete Browning was the 45th greatest ML CF and 463rd greatest player. A much lower career WARP3 than any outfielder ever elected to the HoM, his election would almost certainly be a mistake. A near-exact equivalent from modern times is Danny Tartabull. People use Brownings age 28 career year 169 OPS+ in the 1890 PL (not a historically strong league, by the way) as a argument that he could hit "anytime anywhere". Danny Tartabull had an age 28 career year 171 OPS+ in the strong 1991 AL. Does that prove that Tartabull could hit anytime anywhere, and should be elected to the HoM?

Pete Browning: 93.7 WARP1
Danny Tartabull: 46.1 WARP1

If you timeline, lots of great players from the past look like mediocre players from today.
   110. Sean Gilman Posted: January 21, 2007 at 10:26 AM (#2283807)
Oh, and Browning's 1890 was his 6th best season by OPS+, his 7th top 5 in his league OPS+ and the best in his league that year. Tartabull had one season within 20 points of his 171, made the top 5 in OPS+ twice and once led the league in salary.
   111. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 21, 2007 at 02:45 PM (#2283819)
Maybe Jeff means Muddy Waters (that's for the blues fans here :-)

You mean McKinley Morganfield? ; )


I was waiting for one of the HoM musicologists to mention that. :-)

Pete Browning: 93.7 WARP1
Danny Tartabull: 46.1 WARP1

If you timeline, lots of great players from the past look like mediocre players from today.


It also assumes that a Danny Tartabull born in 1861 would be the same player he was during the 1980s and 1990s, while a Pete Browning born in 1962 wouldn't have benefited from any nutritional or medical advances.
   112. Howie Menckel Posted: January 21, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2283863)
"People use Brownings age 28 career year 169 OPS+ in the 1890 PL (not a historically strong league, by the way) as a argument that he could hit "anytime anywhere". Danny Tartabull had an age 28 career year 171 OPS+ in the strong 1991 AL. Does that prove that Tartabull could hit anytime anywhere, and should be elected to the HoM?"

Is that a serious argument?
As noted, Browning was generally much more dominant than that in the AA. If you make some adjustments for league strength, you might wonder if he really is a 169 OPS+ OF. Then he plays in the PL with a number of HOMers, and sure enough he hits as well or better than they do that year. Does someone really think he usually wasn't that good, but somehow 'raised his game' in that one year to hoodwink HOM voters a century later?
Tartabull, meanwhile, plays in a strong league every year, and every other year he proves he's not nearly that good.
   113. Howie Menckel Posted: January 21, 2007 at 05:23 PM (#2283864)
Best Phillies pitcher ever candidates, not a lot of them:
RK....PITCHER.......W......IP
1. Steve Carlton. 241...3697.3
2. Robin Roberts. 234...3739.3
3. Pete Alexander 190...2513.7
4. Chris Short... 132...2253.0
5. Curt Simmons.. 115...1939.7
6. Curt Schilling 101...1659.3
7. Al Orth....... 100...1504.7
8. Charlie Ferguson 99...1514.7
9. Jack Taylor.... 96...1505.3
10. Tully Sparks.. 95...1698.0
   114. Brent Posted: January 21, 2007 at 07:04 PM (#2283906)
The top three Phillies were a lot stronger than anyone with the Reds:
1. Eppa Rixey 179 2890
2. Tony Mullane 163 2599
3. Paul Derringer 161 2616
4. Bucky Walters 160 2355
5. Dolf Luque 153 2669
   115. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 21, 2007 at 07:26 PM (#2283916)
Also, Browning wasn't playing 162-game seasons! You can't possibly look at pre-1904 players without a season length adjustment.
   116. Chris Cobb Posted: January 21, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2283957)
1993 Ballot

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments.

Since 1987, I have been more swayed in my subjective adjustments than I have in the past by issues of positional balance. That has become a second tie-breaking factor, along with peak talent, in arranging the candidates whom my system sees as just about equal. So I have brought more infielders on to my ballot.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Pete Rose (2). % = 1.5797. I have no great love for him, but even giving him no credit for play after 1982, this is where he rates. An outstanding leadoff hitter, an excellent defensive outfielder, a competent infielder, played every day, maintained a high level of performance through his late 30s.
2. Steve Carlton (n/e). % = 1.3513. Best left-hander since Warren Spahn. Mixed in a few bad years with some truly great years, so doesn’t have Seaver’s consistent greatness, but he’s the #2 pitcher of the era, edging Niekro and Perry.
3. Reggie Jackson (n/e). % = 1.2566. Probably overrated by history, as the only year he truly dominated his league was 1969, but he was an excellent hitter for many years. I remember him as a bad defensive outfielder, but for the first half of his career it appears that he was good.
4. Phil Niekro (n/e). % = 1.2422. Draws the short straw in 1993. He is an obvious HoMer, but he is just a little bit behind Reggie Jackson.
5. Quincy Trouppe (4). % = 1.0453. Discussion of the anecdotal record solidifies Trouppe’s case for me. I think he is disadvantaged in NeL lore because he was not slick behind the plate. The comment cited from one former NeL player that Trouppe was a great athlete who could have played other positions, but he was only an ok catcher strongly suggests that the oral history underrates Trouppe for the same reason it has overrated players like Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
6. Edd Roush (5). % = 1.0667. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me.
7. Charlie Keller (6). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
8. Rollie Fingers (7) % = 1.0632. Fingers shows up comfortably above the in/out line in my system. He was not as lights-out as we have come to expect the modern closer to be, but he was still highly effective, extremely durable, and highly leveraged.
9. Dave Bancroft (8). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
10. Alejandro Oms (9) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
11. Tommy Leach (10). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time.
12. Jimmy Wynn (11). % = 1.0386. I was overrating him a bit, not sure why.
13. Jake Beckley (12). % = 1.0250. Gradually rising as the backlog clears. Staub’s record and his are not so different as to make it outrageous to look at them together, but Beckley’s defensive performance was consistently superior, giving him the edge over Le Grand Orange, who was never outstanding defensively, and who had very little defensive value at all over the second half of his career.
14. Rabbit Maranville (13) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study suggests I was overvaluing him, but he still has a strong career argument.
15. Bus Clarkson (15). % = 1.00. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him the edge over Perez.
   117. Chris Cobb Posted: January 21, 2007 at 09:46 PM (#2283958)
1993 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Tony Perez. (16). % = 1.0577. In a tightly bunched group of long career hitters with Beckley, Cash, and Staub, and also comparable to “prime” hitter candidates Wynn and. Bonds. Overall, he placed in the middle of this tightly bunched group. An excellent hitter for a few years, a very good hitter for many years. Helped by being a decent third baseman for a while, and being good defensively at first. (Win shares has him at B-, just above average, at each position. He never won a WS gold glove at first, but he was among the top 5 in fws at first every season during the 1970s.) It’s his defense, surprisingly enough, that pushes him ahead of Staub, who was a little better with the bat. It’s durability that pushes him ahead of Cash. His 12-year prime and Bonds’ 12-year prime were almost identical in value; Perez’s decline phase gives him the nod over Bonds. Win shares _hugely_ overrates this tail period, which is why I have adjusted him downward from his rank according to my system (I haven’t had time to make a comprehensive adjustment to the system yet). However, he did have some value, which is more than Bonds did when he wasn’t playing.
17. Bobby Bonds (17) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
18. Charley Jones (18). % = 1.00. This year I prefer Bobby Bonds.
19. Luis Tiant (14). % = 1.0024. Best backlog starting pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce. His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Much better than Hunter and Lolich. Drops a little this year as I have recalibrated the in-out line for the 1970s, and Tiant is less far above it than he was before. Still worthy of election, but I’m not in any hurry to push his candidacy.
20. Norm Cash. (19) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Bonds on league-strength considerations.
21. Nellie Fox (20). % = 1.00. I thought he wasn’t going to make my ballot before he was elected. Now, maybe he will. I support his eventual election, but I see him as the weakest “should elect” infielder now eligible. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Bancroft and Maranville have to offer.
22. Rusty Staub (21) % = 1.0457. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am starting him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
23. Gavvy Cravath (22). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
24. Joe Tinker (23). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
25. Herman Long (24). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts.
26. Bob Johnson (25). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
27. Dom Dimaggio (26). % = 1.00. Likewise
28. Jimmy Ryan (27). % = 1.00. Likewise
29. Dick Redding (28). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

30. Bill Monroe .9922
31. Don Newcombe .9886
32. Urban Shocker .9867
33. Jim Kaat. .9846.
34. Burleigh Grimes .9845
35. George Burns .9879
36. Willie Davis .9896
37. Ron Cey .9800. Cey had a very fine prime: he was an above-average player for twelve years running, and he was occasionally excellent. The difference between him and Nellie Fox is not large at all.
38. Reggie Smith .9791
39. Ken Singleton .9780
40. Johnny Evers .9779
41. Fielder Jones .9778
42. Lave Cross .9709
43. Hugh Duffy .9686
44. Johnny Pesky .9676
45. Ben Taylor .9667
46. Cy Seymour .9665
47. Dick Bartell .9653
48. George Van Haltren .9538
49. Larry Doyle .9614
50. Bobby Veach .9609
51. Buzz Arlett .9602
52. Vada Pinson .9599
53. Leroy Matlock .9544
54. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #21 above

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in.

Dick Redding. See #29 above.

New Arrivals worthy of note but not within 5% of the in-out line:

57. Darrell Porter. % = .9314. Somewhat to my surprise, he rates very highly among the non-HoM catchers of the 1970s and early 1980s (the HoMers being Bench, Fisk, Simmons, and Carter). He is behind Munson. Not great defensively and somewhat inconsistent offensively, but he had some great years, and was effective for a long time. Sad that his life was so damaged by addictions.

Steve Garvey. % = .8342. The second-best member of the great Dodger infields of the 1970s. My system sees him as similar to other very good players of the 1970s who had long, productive careers but who were never great. He’s a little behind Roy White and Bert Campaneris, a little ahead of Al Oliver, among position players.

Davey Lopes and Bill Madlock are a bit below the level for which I do a full workup. Both were all-stars at their best, and important contributors to pennant-winning teams, but neither has the credentials on either peak or on career to be a serious candidate. If Lopes had been ready earlier, or if Madlock had bothered to play defense, they might have had borderline cases.
   118. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: January 22, 2007 at 02:44 AM (#2284062)
1993 Ballot:

1. Phil Niekro - As a peak voter, it might seem odd that I put Niekro here. I think that he was more consistently great than anyone else on the ballot.
2. Reggie Jackson - A great hitter. A not-so great fielder.
3. Pete Rose - Just a smidge below Reggie.
4. Steve Carlton - Tough break to be 4 this year. Most other years he's 1.
5. Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen.
6. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove pushes him above Keller this time around.
7. Charlie Keller - Poor man's Kiner. Close with war credit, but Kiner's huge peak was real.
8. Thurman Munson - I'm warming up to the idea that he was very similar to Freehan.
9. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? An egregious oversight on my part.
10. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
11. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player.
12. Frank Howard - Now comes the fun part. As a peak guy (even though I count career as well, I lean peak), I couldn't rationalize him so low, especially behind Beckley.
13. Norm Cash - Raw numbers better than Howard, but Cash was platooned.
14. Chuck Klein - Similar to Howard, but how much of it was the Baker Bowl?
15. Rollie Fingers - I'm not sold on the peak/prime. Wilhelm was better, and Marshall is close. Still one of the top 3 relievers we've seen.

Disclosures:

Cey is the only other newcomer in my consideration set, and I have him in the late 40's.
Fox does not have enough bat value.
Wynn is in the 20's, I'm not sold yet.
Trouppe is behind Elston Howard in my system, in the 30's
Roush played in a weak league, missed a lot of time and doesn't really suit my fancy. He's in the 30's.
   119. Andrew M Posted: January 22, 2007 at 05:42 AM (#2284158)
1993 Ballot

1. Pete Rose
2. Gaylord Perry
3. Steve Carlton
4. Reggie Jackson
Sure he hung around too long, but Rose was a very valuable player for a long, long time. He rarely missed a game, got on base a lot, and played the game about as hard as anyone ever has. I agree with whoever said he is both over- and underrated. Perry and Carlton look about as close as any two players I’ve seen in awhile. Carlton’s got the peak, but Perry was better for longer, so I’ll go with him. Jackson is the odd man out here, as I seem to be a little less impressed by him than most of you—not that he wasn’t a great player.

5. (4) Nellie Fox. Durable (never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ is OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career.

6. (5) Larry Doyle. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. I’m not convinced that his defense was as bad as BP suggests.

7. (6) Edd Roush. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF (according to Win Shares—WARP thinks less of his fielding) impresses me more than the other guys who have careers of comparable length.

8. (7) Charlie Keller. Only 4600 plate appearances. I suppose his rate stats benefit from not having a real decline phase, but there aren’t many guys who hit like he did through age 30.

9. (8) Dick Redding. Long career, decent peak. I’m not completely sold on him, but I don’t think he’s far off a guy like Jenkins. Honestly, though, that's just a reasonable guess based on what we know and reputation.

10. (9) Tommy Bridges. Like Billy Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

11. (10) Bob Johnson. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. Comparable to Medwick and Averill in the lower tier of HoM OFs.

12. (11) Jimmy Wynn. Another unusual, relatively brief, career, but he got on base a ton, hit for power, seems to have been a decent fielder.

13. (12) Quincy Trouppe. I don’t have much of a sense of his defense, but assuming he was at least average, his hitting ability is enough to make him the highest rated catcher on my ballot.

14. (13) Tommie Leach. Long career, excellent fielder at both CF and 3B. Hit enough for 3B.

15. (14) George J. Burns. Arguably the best NL OF of the 1910s. Rarely missed a game, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade.


Next 16 (more or less in order)
Dave Bancroft
Bob Elliott
Luis Tiant
Phil Rizzuto
Bucky Walters
Ken Singleton
Rollie Fingers
Alejandro Oms
George Van Haltren
Jimmy Ryan
Reggie Smith
Vern Stephens
Bobby Bonds
Herman Long
Tony Perez
Jake Beckley

Required Disclosures:
Rollie Fingers—Not sold on him yet
Pete Browning—Too many questions
   120. SWW Posted: January 22, 2007 at 06:49 AM (#2284188)
So, by my reckoning, my third-place ballot for Rose last year single-handedly kept him out of the Hall. I feel drunk with power. Well, with this many outstanding candidates, it's time to sober up.

<u>1993 Ballot</u>
1) Peter Edward Rose – “Charlie Hustle”
By every measure I use, the top man on the ballot. The career numbers (including the number of seasons played) are ridiculous, but the peak and prime are also outstanding. A truly unique baseball player. And kind of a louse, too. 15th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 25th on Sporting News Top 100. 33rd on Bill James Top 100. 48th on SABR Top 100. 57th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 25th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Reginald Martinez Jackson – “Mr. October”
The Win Shares are ridiculous. Eight times among the 10 best in the AL. Forget about the playoff performance; Reggie’s one of the best hitters in the game. Truly the straw that stirs the drink. 23rd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 48th on Sporting News Top 100. 51st on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 57th on Bill James Top 100. 67th on SABR Top 100. 22nd on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
3) Steven Norman Carlton – “Lefty”
Preturnaturally focused competitor, and successful no matter what kind of team he was playing for. I’m not a fan of peak, but his 1972 is certainly one of the most remarkable peaks ever recorded. He’s about to become the only man I’ve voted for in this Hall AND witnessed inducted into the other one. 30th on SABR Top 100. 30th on Sporting News Top 100. 32nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 78th on Bill James Top 100. 84th on Ken Shouler Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Philip Henry Niekro – “Knucksie”
The pre-eminent knuckler in the game. Remarkably successful, considering a career spent entirely with the Braves. He may not get elected this year, but that just means I’ll get to vote for him twice. 89th on Maury Allen Top 100.
5) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. And he’s Top 20! Whoo hoo! 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. And speaking of second basemen…
7) Roland Glen Fingers
Interestingly, watching Rich Gossage’s unnecessarily-long march to Cooperstown has helped me assess my placement of relief pitchers. I think the weirdness of the position has led this electorate to underrate him, and not entirely unfairly. But Fingers is one of the best at his position, far outdistancing other relievers we have assessed like Lyle and McGraw. So I’m moving him up, and I may do it again. Also, DanG calls him “the Grimes of RP’s”, which seems almost calculated to get my attention. 76th on SABR Top 100. 82nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 97th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
8) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
9) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
A similar pair. Tony has the edge in Win Shares. Cha Cha shows a greater impact compared to his team and his league. For now, I’m giving Cepeda the one-point advantage, although I could very well flip that after some research. Perez is 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
10) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. I think another review of pitchers may be in order, but I still believe that the pitchers of this era get short shrift.
11) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
13) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 93rd on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
14) Edd J Roush
I took a fresh look at center fielders this time around, and I’m not overwhelmingly in favor of any of them. I knocked Hugh Duffy down several spots because of my concerns about his one great season. Roush has more consistency, so he hangs in there.
15) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
An impressive career considering his late start. Not much in the way of peak, but considering how few Win Shares the Senators had to divvy up, he did pretty well.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
James Sherman Wynn – “The Toy Cannon”
I had him on the ballot last week, and I expect he’ll be back. The 6 Top 10 WS finishes and solid career numbers carry a lot of weight with me, and he compares favorably with Roush. I remain troubled by his relative lack of contemporary acclaim.
Charles Ernest Keller
An enormous peak and the obvious need for war credit are in his favor. But I’m honestly not convinced that his peaks were as strong as those of guys like Kiner and Klein, who each just barely made it onto the bottom of my ballot. Like Dobie Moore, whose election I did not endorse, a career unfairly abbreviated.
Quincy Thomas Trouppe
He is very close to the ballot, especially after making a brief appearance in my Top 15 a few years back. An unusually varied career, but particularly successful behind the plate. If we clear out the backlog some, he will probably return in coming years. I’ve been watching Ken Burns’ Jazz; is that his grandson I keep seeing as a commentator?
   121. Chris Fluit Posted: January 22, 2007 at 06:53 AM (#2284191)
Andrew, we elected Perry awhile ago. You might want to vote for Niekro instead.
   122. Chris Fluit Posted: January 22, 2007 at 06:55 AM (#2284194)
Quincy Thomas Trouppe
I’ve been watching Ken Burns’ Jazz; is that his grandson I keep seeing as a commentator?


Yes.
   123. rawagman Posted: January 22, 2007 at 09:46 AM (#2284243)
Two questions from a ballot counter:
1) Shall I assume Andrew M meant to haev Niekro where he placed Perry?
2) Are we counting the new guys ballot as is, or was he planning on restructuring?
   124. OCF Posted: January 22, 2007 at 10:20 AM (#2284246)
1) I'd like to assume that, but I think it's safer to have Andrew resolve it himself.
2) No, don't count it. At this point, he hasn't indicated that he intends for it to be counted.
   125. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 22, 2007 at 12:27 PM (#2284252)
Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

Here goes, one of the toughest top fours that I can remember:

1. Pete Rose IF/OF (boycott) - He's peak gets underrated, Rose has 5 double digit WARP3 seasons to Reggie's 1. Rose played 8 seasons at 2B/3B, and other 1/2 season in CF. Even if you say he retired after 1981 he's easily #1 here, and I don't give negative credit if they are willing to play you. Even if you are the one willing to play yourself.

He's tough to slot on a position list, but giving him credit for his entire career at the positions he played and then slotting him on a list - if you want to list him as a 3B, I have him near Eddie Mathews. If you want to call him a RF, he's right near Mel Ott. Call him a 2B, and he's a hair behind Gehringer.

2. Steve Carlton SP (n/e) - The amazing 1972 bumps him ahead of Niekro. I have him as the #8 ranked eligible pitcher.

3. Phil Niekro SP (n/e) - Gobbled innings forever, and very effective too, even with the unearned runs. His defense were so bad that they basically offset the UR. He's actually ahead of Carlton on pitching, but he wasn't a very good hitter for a pitcher, and Carlton was, and they are close enough that it makes the difference.

4. Reggie Jackson RF (n/e) - Tough to rank him 4th here, but I can't get around it. He was a monster hitter, and his 1969 season was one for the ages. But in my mind I can't see taking the #5 or #6 RF over the #8 or #9 starting pitcher.

5. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

6. Jack Quinn SP (5) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

7. Rollie Fingers RP (4) - Very easily the number 3 reliever we've seen through 1990, behind only Wilhelm and Gossage, way ahead of Sutter. He's the best I've found at preventing inherited runners from scoring. He was as leveraged as high as just about anyone. His peak is only beaten by Gossage (and Hiller if you call 1-year a peak). ERA+ severely understates how much he prevented runs from scoring, when I adjust for everything, I get his DRA+ at 124. His career was as long as any reliever except for Wilhelm. He's a laughably easy choice IMO, unless you think we should only have 1 or 2 relievers.

8. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

9. Tommy Bridges SP (8) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

10. Jake Beckley 1B (9) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

11. Charlie Keller LF (10) - Gave him minor league credit for 1938, when he was clearly major league quality, and I threw in war credit. He comes out way ahead of Kiner once I do this.

12. Thurman Munson C (11) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

13. Wally Schang C (12) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bennett and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense was questionable.

14. Ben Taylor 1B (13) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

15. Pie Traynor 3B (14) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one. He gets another bump this week. I don't agree with rating Boyer above him. Traynor far outhit his 3B peers relative to Boyer and his.

Honorable Mention:

16. Dave Bancroft SS (15) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

17. Darrell Porter C (n/e) - A lot higher than I thought he'd be. His 1979 was an MVP caliber season - of course it came in the one year between 1977-81 that the Royals didn't make the playoffs, so he finished 9th behind guys like Mike Flanagan and Gorman Thomas. As a catcher, in 679 PA, he had as good of an offensive season as the LF/DH that won the award. I could see ranking him almost as high as Freehan. I wish I'd looked at this sooner - I'd like to see him get the close look that Ron Cey got. Porter was definitely a better player.

18. Charley Jones LF (6) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player. I have dropped him this week. I still think he was great, but I think I'd been giving him a little too much credit for his AA seasons.

19. Jim Fregosi SS (16) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

20. Don Newcombe SP (23) - Gets color-line and Korea credit. Moving up this week after a few tweaks in the system adjusting for fielding behind him.

21. Bucky Walters SP (28) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

22. Burleigh Grimes SP (17) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. The updated fielding adjustments in WARP drop him a little in the rankings.

23. Norm Cash 1B (18) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

24. Roger Bresnahan C/OF (19) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

25. Quincy Trouppe C (20) - Convince me that I should have him higher than Bresnahan . . . not being sarcastic.

26. Phil Rizzuto SS (21) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

27. Rusty Staub RF (22) - Could push him higher, I like career candidates with nice peaks, and from 1967-71 Staub was one of the best players in baseball.

28. Luis Tiant SP (35) - Very nice career. Said I could see ranking him a little higher, now I've done it.

29. Cecil Travis SS (24) - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

30. Nellie Fox 2B (25) - Long solid career at a key position.

31. Tony Lazzeri 2B (26) - Great hitter for a 2B. Short career and fielding keep him from being higher.

32. Virgil Trucks SP (--) - He's back on the list, the tweaks helped him some.

33. Waite Hoyt SP (27) - Peak is nothing special, but good pitcher for a long time.

34. Bob Johnson LF (29) - Overlooked star, not much difference between Johnson and Medwick.

35. Jimmy Wynn CF (30) - I thought I'd have him higher. Man this ballot is jammed with great players. I'm going to re-evaluate the position players over the next 3 weeks, he could be one I'm underrating.

36. Bert Campaneris SS (31) - He would be much higher if I only compared him to his peers. SS didn't hit at all when he played (average OWP for SS during his career was .370). I split the difference and here is where he ends up. I could see moving him higher.

37. Toby Harrah 3B/SS (32) - This guy could flat hit. If he wasn't so bad with the glove, I could see myself endorsing him for election - he was clearly a good enough hitter for the positions he played. But I can't get him past Lazzeri. He's also under 9000 PA, and I just can't get him past HoVG. But he was a much better player than I realized as an 11 year old watching him on the 1984 Yankees . . .

38. Ken Singleton RF (33) - I've got him as very similar to Henrich. Singleton lasted longer (ever after accounting for the war), but Henrich was a much better fielder. Henrich had more power and Singleton more OBP. But when you add it all up, their overall value was quite similar.

39. Ron Cey (n/e) - I see him as similar to Boyer, with a lower peak.

40. Tommy Henrich RF (34) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

41. Gene Tenace C/1B (36) - Could go higher than this, just a machine as a hitter, and 900 games caught. Kind of a poor man's Joe Torre.

42. Alejandro Oms OF (37) - Pretty good hitter, conservative ranking, I really don't have a handle on him.

43. Reggie Smith OF (38) - Very good player, but missed a lot of time in his good years. Only played 150 games 3 times.

44. Dick Redding SP (39) - I'm just not seeing what everyone else does for some reason.

45. Dutch Leonard SP (40) - Pretty good pitcher at his best. Never had the one huge year, but had a bunch of very good ones.

46. John McGraw 3B (41) - If only he could have stayed in the lineup more.

47. Edd Roush CF (--) - I can't argue with guys that vote for him.

Pete Browning - Let's be careful here guys. He was not a good fielder, in an era where fielding was very important. He played in extremely weak leagues during the prime of his career. If he'd had a long career, I could see getting on board, but he has too many weaknesses to overcome his short career - this isn't Albert Belle or Charlie Keller - this is Hack Wilson.
   126. DavidFoss Posted: January 22, 2007 at 02:34 PM (#2284286)
1993 Ballot

1. Reggie Jackson (ne) -- Overrated while he was playing and underrated after retirement. He's no Frank Robinson, but 139 OPS+ in 11400 PA is well above the bar.
2. Steve Carlton (ne) -- A workhorse innings-eater in his off years and inner-circle-level in his on years. Four NL CYA in an era of great pitchers is incredible. Mix the off years with the on years and you get #2 on this tough ballot.
3. Pete Rose (2) -- Very Very Good for a Very Very long time. Even great for a few years which quells all my doubts about him. That other stuff is a mess. Looking forward to putting him behind us.
4. Phil Niekro (ne) -- Deserves to be remembered better. Greatness masked by the launching pad and the knuckler. Its tough for knucklers to remain effective for more than 1000IP (let alone 5400!)
5. Larry Doyle (4) -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
6. John McGraw (5) -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
7. Gavvy Cravath (6) -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
8. Dick Redding (7) -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play.
9. Roger Bresnahan (8) -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
10. Charlie Keller (9) -- With war credit, his peak ranks right up with guys like Kiner. Will he get into the HOM before the great flood of expansion era hitters clogs the backlog?
11. Charley Jones (10) -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
12. Al Rosen (11) -- For five years, he was one of the greatest hitting 3B of all time.
13. Pete Browning (12) -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.
14. Bob Elliott (13) -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
15. Mickey Welch (14) -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
16-20. Chance, Roush, Fingers, Lombardi, Fox,
21-25. BJohnson,Beckley, Trouppe, FHoward, Cash,
26-30. Leach, Bando, JWynn, Cepeda, Cey, Singleton,
31. Brock, Staub
   127. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 22, 2007 at 02:49 PM (#2284292)
43 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: andrew siegel, Mike Webber, Don F, mulder and scully, Trevor P., Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Patrick W, Tiboreau, KJOK, Max Parkinson, Ardo, Vaux, fra paolo, TomD, Craig K., rdfc, NeverJustaGame and dzop.

How many of this group are not voting due to Rose? I don't know (except for yest).
   128. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 22, 2007 at 03:25 PM (#2284326)
dzop, is that kind of like the Rza?
   129. Ken Fischer Posted: January 22, 2007 at 03:26 PM (#2284331)
1993 Ballot

1-Reggie Jackson 444 WS
A jerk….but one of the great showmen in the history of the game.

2-Pete Rose 547 WS
A career value vote. Too much of a hot dog for me…but you can’t ignore the volume of his work…and all the great teams he made better. But he did dishonor the game.

3-Steve Carlton 366 WS
Not a fun guy…and should’ve quit after 1984. But off the charts in Gray Ink & Black Ink. A 6-6 post season record doesn’t do justice to his value to the Phillies…1980 World Series, etc.

4-Phil Niekro 374 WS
Didn’t end as badly as Carlton…but why was pitching last game for the Braves necessary?? He has a 15.00 ERA for the appearance. Less post-season than Carlton. The Braves had some bad teams back in the 70s.

5-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

6-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking.

7-Mickey Welch 354 WS
How can we forget that 1885 season!

8-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Rollie Fingers 188 WS
Best reliever to come on the ballot in awhile. Hard to judge…he may move up next time.

12-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

13-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

14-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

15-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete’s back on my ballot after many years. The Players League year shows he was the real deal.

Fox, Wynn, Trouppe and Keller aren’t in my top 15 but they are now all in my top 35. I moved Keller up on my depth chart. But I don’t know if I can move him up any further. I’m still studying Kong.


16-Lou Brock 348 WS
17-Tony Mullane 399 WS
18-Luis Tiant 256 WS
19-Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
20-Nellie Fox 304 WS
21-Jim Wynn 305 WS
22-Gil Hodges 263 WS
23-Tony Perez 349 WS
24-Dick Lundy
25-Curt Flood 221 WS
26-Jim Kaat 268 WS
27-Red Schoendienst 262 WS
28-Quincy Trouppe
29-Ray Dandridge
30-Sam Rice 327 WS
31-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
32-Luis Aparico 293 WS
33-Orlando Cepeda 310 WS
34-Charlie Keller 218 WS
35-Ernie Lombardi 218 WS
   130. Daryn Posted: January 22, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2284334)
How many of this group are not voting due to Rose? I don't know (except for yest).
How many of them boycotted?
   131. Max Parkinson Posted: January 22, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2284335)
1993 ballot (MP HoMers in bold – the Hall welcomes Jackson, Carleton and Niekro this year):

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Reggie Jackson

The 5th-best RF to date, behind only Ruth, Aaron, Ott and FRobby.

2. Steve Carleton

3. Phil Niekro

As completely different as these two are in almost every imaginable way, I see them as the 22nd and 24th best pitchers of all time, through 1992. (Wedged between them is Carl Hubbell). They end up accumulating very, very similar value. This makes me happy, that I can see value in both highish and lowish peaks.

4. Pete Rose

He had a lot of hits, and was a key part of Championship clubs. He also pled the equivalent of nolo to the charge of gambling on baseball and accepted the punishment of the same, spent 15 years denying that he’d done so, and then attempted to sell a book under the premise of, “Yeah, maybe I did do that, but me admitting it makes me a better person. Love Me.”

5. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

8. Dick Redding
9. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

10. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

11. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

12. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

13. Charlie Keller

He's been just off and just on my ballot for a while, but I've just hopscotched him over Burns and Veach, because at the end of it all - this is pretty darn close to the borderline of the MP Hall of Merit, and I'm more convinced that he should be in than either of them.

14. Rollie Fingers

Just borderline of my Hall right now. At this point, he's either the third or fourth greatest reliever of all time, but this Eckersley guy is doing really good things....and how many relievers will I want to enshrine at the end of the day? He'll probably make it in, but caution is the word for now

15. George Burns

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

16-20. Veach, Perez, Cash, Lazzeri, Bancroft
21-25. Shocker, Duffy, Cey, Konetchy, G. Foster
26-30. B. Johnson, R. White, Tiant, Munson, W. Wood
31-35. Tenace, Cuyler, Roush, Youngs, Bridges
36-40. Klein, Cicotte, Trout, Tiernan, Campaneris
41-45. Hooper, Singleton, Rucker, F. Jones, Traynor
46-50. Trouppe, Bonds, Bradley, F. Howard, Wynn
51-55. Willis, E. Howard, Seymour, Nicholson, Leach
56-60. Chance, Oms, Griffin, Cepeda, Gomez
61-65. Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang, S.J. Wood, Nash
66-70. R. Smith, Beckley, Harder, Bottomley, B. Elliott
71-75. Bartell, Dunlap, Luque, Bando, Hodges
76-80. Fox, Newcombe, Fournier, V. Stephens, Pennock
81-85. Maranville, Bresnahan, Mays, Cross, Rosen

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Roush – 33. He’s recently moved up about 10 spots.
Trouppe – 46.
Wynn – 50.
Beckley – 67.
Fox – 76.

I just don’t see any of these as particularly electable. I’m closest with Roush, but I fear that the gap between my HoM and the general one will grow once we get past the 89-92 rush. Note that this comment is a few years old, but it’s already proven true with Boyer (and soon to be Wynn and Fox).
   132. Paul Wendt Posted: January 22, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2284394)
SWW Posted: January 22, 2007 at 12:49 AM (#2284188)
So, by my reckoning, my third-place ballot for Rose last year single-handedly kept him out of the Hall. I feel drunk with power. Well, with this many outstanding candidates, it's time to sober up.


Half of the voters and how many of the rest of us "single-handedly" kept him out?

Max P
46-50. Trouppe, Bonds, Bradley, F. Howard, Wynn

Bill Bradley the Cleveland 3Bman?

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

Cy Williams deserves more than that, maybe a place in the second tier, stronger with the bat and a career centerfielder. (OPS+ suggests that Burns and Veach were suited to the deadball style, Williams to the new style.)
A CF-lover might get Clyde Milan into the third tier.
   133. Mike Webber Posted: January 22, 2007 at 04:35 PM (#2284414)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) PETE ROSE - 547 Win Shares, six MVP type seasons, 15 seasons 20+ Win Shares. When I became a baseball fan/card collector, Rose was a third baseman, so I often think of him that way.
2) REGGIE JACKSON - 444 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 13 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I put Pete ahead mostly due to durability in the prime years, the slightly better peak, and some defensive value.
3) STEVE CARLTON - 366 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. In choosing Carlton over Niekro, I believe this may be the first time I consider myself a contemporary observer, and we all thought Carlton was much superior. Maybe it was the lack of respect for a knuckle ball, maybe it was the teams they played for, or maybe it was that slider that was unbelievable.
4) PHIL NIEKRO - 374 Win Shares, 1 MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
5) EDD ROUSH – 314 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Edd is better than Wynn. More career win shares, with out any schedule adjustment. Played his whole career in center field, while Wynn spent 1/3 of his career elsewhere while Ron Davis and Roland Office played center. Significant lead in both black and gray ink – both played in generally poor hitters parks.
6) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a top of the ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 20 player at his position.
7) JIMMY WYNN – 305 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Jimmy Wynn is better than Edd. PRO+ is slightly higher. Played in a tougher environment, especially when you add in the Federal League. While both played in poor hitters parks, Wynn’s style was more adversely affected by the Astrodome than Redland/Crosley Field hurt singles hitting Roush.
8) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
9) NELLIE FOX –304 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
10) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
11) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
12) SAL BANDO - I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
13) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
14) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
15) QUINCY TROUPPE - slotting him above Thurman Munson in the all time catcher ratings slides him into my ballot. I feel comfortable that he is ahead of Howard, Schang and Lombardi.


Disclosures:

Charlie Keller – four MVP type seasons, I am not comfortable figuring MVP type seasons for 1944 and 1945. If you give him 30 win share seasons those two years I can see how you have him near the top of the ballot.

Jake Beckley – behind Cepeda, in the mass of players off my ballot between 25 and 50.

Rollie Fingers – not convinced that there is enough leverage available to make his career and peak values big enough to put him on the ballot. I have been thinking about what the minimum amount of career win shares it would take to make my ballot. Koufax has the fewest of any player I have voted for, 194 and he had 3 MVP type seasons.

Pete Browning – lots of little negatives, his fielding, his drinking – its effect on his performance, the AA discount, all keep him from being a serious ballot contender.

Newbies – Ron Cey and Bill Madlock – Five direct contemporaries that are better, Schmidt, Brett, Evans, Nettles, and Bando, 3-4 other contemporaries that are about the same, Bell, Hebner, Harrah and Money, plus some partial overlappers that are much better in Robinson, Santo, Boggs. Its hard to see the 8th best 3b of a 35 year period on the ballot.

Garvey, Lopes, Porter – none are ranked high enough within their position group to receive real consideration.
   134. Max Parkinson Posted: January 22, 2007 at 04:48 PM (#2284430)
Paul,

Yes, the Cleveland 3B.
   135. andrew siegel Posted: January 22, 2007 at 04:52 PM (#2284433)
(1) Rose (2nd)--To say that he was peakless is silly. At his peak, he was every bit the equal of such middle of the HoM guys as Clemente, Heilmann, and Crawford. Plus, his career was much longer. Somewhere around 60 or 70 All-Time. In the version of offensive won-lost records I have lying around, he is Reggie Jackson plus 54 wins and 46 losses. At worst, the extra 54-46 is a net neutral. So, his career value is Jackson's offense plus the huge difference in their defensive values.

(2) Carlton (new)--WS, WARP< and my ad hoc system all come to the same conclusion: Niekro is a smidge ahead on career value but Carlton noses ahead if you give peak a chance.

(3) Niekro (new)--Wildly underrated. Somewhere around the 100th best player of All-Time.

(4) Reggie Jackson (new)--A very worthy HoMer--somewhere among the top 110 players of All-Time, but his durability was questionable and there were an awful lot of OF's who played a lot of gamnes and could mash in the 60's, 70's, and 80's. Like Billy Williams and Stargell before him, I have him one notch below the consensus.

(5) Keller (3rd)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). Played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner and Berger, only reached for 4 or 5.

(6) Roush (4th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except the new guys and the third basemen. A star in his own time--a decent fielding CF always near the league lead in OPS.

(7) Bob Johnson (5th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(8) Bridges (6th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(9) Cash (7th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(10) Trouppe (8th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's. The biggest surprise of this whole project.

(11) Wynn (9th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers.

(12) Leach (10th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. Downgraded the value of his CF seasons a tad last week.

(13) Elliot (11th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(14) Oms (12th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up.

(15) Cravath (13th)--I've got no problem giving minor league credit and that brings him on ballot. Looking at the total package he offered, however, my personal jury is still out. A great hitter, but so where Jones, Browning, Fournier, Tiernan, Frank Howard, etc. He feels like one of those. Career length comparison to those others gets him on the ballot, but it is tenuous.

Jack Beckley, Reggie Smith (15th), Urban Shocker, Rollie Fingers, France Chance, and Tony Perez are the next six. It think all six are worthy HoMers.


There are arguments for Fox; I just wish he had a little more offense and, therefore, like others better (he's somewhere around number 40).

Pete Browning only played around nine or ten seasons worth of games, played his first few years in a quadruple A league, and lost most of his defensive value to drink and dizziness in the middle of his career. Adjusting for all those facts, he still hit enough to crack my top 50. I'd rather applaud him for that achievement than knock him down.

Ron Cey is a serious candidate--he's currently number 29 on my ballot. Given the offensive seasons Tony Perez had while playing 3B, I find it impossible to put Cey ahead of Perez.

The other newbies are first-ballot inductees for the Hall of Very Good, except for Garvey who I am boycotting. :)
   136. Andrew M Posted: January 22, 2007 at 11:14 PM (#2284778)
Two questions from a ballot counter:
1) Shall I assume Andrew M meant to haev Niekro where he placed Perry?


Um, yes, I had them next to each other on my spreadsheet and at some point during the ballot drafting process I started to write Perry when I meant Niekro. As a kid I always had trouble keeping the Perrys and Niekros straight. So, my top 4 (#119) are:

1. Rose
2. Niekro
3. Carlton
4. R. Jackson
   137. OCF Posted: January 22, 2007 at 11:39 PM (#2284794)
Thanks, Andrew.
   138. Patrick W Posted: January 22, 2007 at 11:43 PM (#2284797)
Rushed ballot this week. Cey is just off the ballot, but might deserve to overtake the outfielders and first basemen he’s battling for the bottom. He might even be as good as Boyer.

1. Pete Rose (2), Cinc. (N), 1B / 2B / OF (’63-’86) (1992) – I’d prefer to let his election slip by without comment.
2. Steve Carlton (n/a), Phila. (N) SP (’67-’87) (1993) – Neck and neck with the career value of the other rookie pitcher, I give Steve the edge mostly on reputation and peak rate.
3. Phil Niekro (n/a), Atl. (N) SP (’65-’87) (1993) – I didn’t expect to see his resume include three phenomenal years like it does. I expected to see a T.John career, but he’s a sure-fire first ballot player.
4. Reggie Jackson (n/a), Oak. – N.Y. (A), RF (’67-’87) (1993) – 4000 AB’s is too large a hill to climb.
--. Bobby Grich, Cal – Balt. (A), 2B (’72-’86) – Looks to be a close comp for Ryno. I had no idea he was this good.
5. Rollie Fingers (4), Oak. (A) – S.D. (N) RP (’70-’84) (1991) – 33% bonus on his pitching runs to account for leverage. This could be low, but I don’t think I can support using a higher multiplier.
6. Tony Perez (5), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
7. Luis Tiant (6), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
8. Jim Kaat (7), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
9. Rusty Staub (8), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
10. Jimmy Wynn (9), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) (1985) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
11. Dutch Leonard (10), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
12. Dizzy Trout (11), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
13. Norm Cash (12), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
14. Alejandro Oms (13), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
15. George Van Haltren (14), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.

Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed below, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Nellie Fox – Not the best glove man missing from the ballot.
Charlie Keller – DiMaggio, Ryan and Hooper rank above him among the OF’s. I know each of them has previously appeared on my ballot, so I wouldn’t be surprised if I’ve given Keller a few votes over the years. A 23% bonus for war credit still leaves him short of 5,000 AB’s; it’ll be a hard sell to make the ballot again.
Quincy Trouppe – I think I spent the first half overrating catchers, and now apparently I underrate them relative to the group. To my recollection, I have not changed my methodology regarding backstops in a long while, so I’m blaming you guys.
Edd Roush – I can’t even tell if career voters or peak voters should be voting for Roush. Near the bottom of the OF consideration set.

Five players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   139. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: January 22, 2007 at 11:54 PM (#2284806)
Okay, I admit it, I slacked off again. The combination of the long break, the extremely well-qualified new candidates, and watching Season 2 of The Wire on DVD means I didn’t do a lot of work this “year”. (I am going to make myself update everything for 1994 before I crack open Season 3.) The only player this might make a big difference for as far as I can see is Ron Cey. I am a 3B booster, but on a quick look I really don’t think he’d make my ballot this year. I’m not ranking him at this point, although he very well might be in the 20s somewhere. Garvey definitely isn’t, and I looked him over when we did the HOF voting. Jackson, Carlton and Niekro make my PHoM this year.

1. Pete Rose (2) I haven’t boycotted before, and Rose’s sins don’t rise as high as Jackson’s. But I’m not at all upset that he isn’t in the HoF – I agree with Bill James – that’s where you end his rehabilitation. For people who feel the Hall of Fame is demeaned because Rose isn’t in there, I just don’t get that. Has the most career value on this ballot by a clear margin, and his peak is not outclassed. Made my PHoM last year.

2. Steve Carlton (new) I go along with everyone who has him just a wee bit ahead of Niekro. Has anybody written a good bio of him? Seems like there’s a lot of good material there. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Phil Niekro (new) The Red Sox are hoping Wakefield can follow his career path. Definitely underrated even though he’s in the HoF. Makes my PHoM this year.

4. Reggie Jackson (new) It’s a little weird for me to look back and realize that when I was 7-8 years old, I was a Yankee fan. (For whatever reason in 1980, I decided to be a Met fan like my mom. No regrets.) And the guy I absolutely loved was Reggie. I still like guys who are outrageous and talk trash but don’t have that level of meanness about them. The Chad Johnsons of the world, and Reggie was one of the all-time greats. But all that said, I still have him fourth on this list.

(4A Bobby Grich)

5. Jimmy Wynn (4) I do sort of worry that I'm just voting for the uber-stats, but the more I've looked at him, the more I like him. Out of all the “pure” CF candidates currently out there, his OPS+ beats everyone but Wally Berger, who has other issues. Made my PHoM in 1985.

6. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. And honestly, outside of having the statistics, I don’t know of any particular advantage Nellie Fox has over him. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. Quincy Trouppe (6) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

8. George Van Haltren (7) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

9. Dick Redding (8) After reading Chris's interpretation of the HoF numbers, it does appear I need to pull him back a bit. Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

10. Gavvy Cravath (9) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

11. Jake Beckley. (10) I still think his typical season was pretty weak for a HoM candidate, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Made my PHoM in 1987.

12. Bob Johnson (11) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am. Made my PHoM in 1992.

13. Tommy Leach (12) Dropped because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

14. Edd Roush (13) I can surprise myself sometimes. I am still leery about giving out holdout credit, but even with the missed time, he does have a pretty good peak by WS. He’s pretty similar to Wynn, and I like Wynn a lot. (But Mike, Heinie Groh was better.) Made my PHoM in 1992.

15. Bus Clarkson (14) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO. I really need to decide whether I’m going to accept the MLEs and put him in my PHoM, or don’t do so and drop him down.

(15A Biz Mackey, 15B Clark Griffith)

16. Reggie Smith (15) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers.
17. Norm Cash (16) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism).
18. Luis Tiant (17) After the deluge of 1970s-era pitchers, he’ll have to be reevaluated, but he could move up.
19. Phil Rizzuto (18) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
20. Charlie Keller (19) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
21. Tony Perez (20) This may be too low, but right now I think he’s just behind Cash. Perez (and maybe Concepcion and Puckett) may have an issue in that they’re guys I’ve argued against in HoF arguments since I got into sabermetrics, because the BBWAA (or, for Davey, Joe Morgan) was picking them instead of better candidates like Blyleven, Gossage and Trammell. So it seems instinctively wrong for me to think of them as, effectively “Hall of Fame-worthy”. Something I need to watch out for.
22. Nellie Fox (21) Not quite up to the standard of Doerr/Gordon/Childs, and the HoM is not notably short on 2Bmen.
23. Alejandro Oms (22) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.
24. Bobby Bonds (23) On further review, I was a bit too bullish on him, but he is quite good.
25. Sal Bando (24) A good hitter for a 3Bman, but doesn’t have the peak or all-around value of Boyer.
(25A Rube Foster, 25B Cool Papa Bell, 25C Max Carey)
26. Bucky Walters (25) I guess I am sort of light on pitchers, but for now I can’t put him any higher due to wartime.
27. Rusty Staub (26) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Definitely behind Perez.
(27A Ralph Kiner, 27B Sam Thompson, 27C Richie Ashburn)
28. Vern Stephens (27) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
29. Ken Singleton (28) Another stinkin' 70s OF candidate. Close in value to Bonds, although a very different type of player.
30. Dizzy Dean (29) All of a sudden, this just felt right. I am due to take another long look at the pitching candidates again.

31. Ben Taylor (30) A good player, especially with the pitching, but not quite there. If we included off-field accomplishments, could very well be a different story.

32. Elston Howard
33. Bob Elliott
34. Charley Jones
35. Orlando Cepeda
(35A Hughie Jennings, 35B George Sisler)
36. Lou Brock
37. Rollie Fingers (36) First, I’m not convinced he’s really ahead of all the other reliever candidates, and second, I’m not convinced that he would be worth induction even if he was.
38. Dave Bancroft
39. Pete Browning (38) He was on my ballot a long time ago, but the truly awful defense and the weakness of the AA early on add up to just not enough heft to his career.
40. Don Newcombe
   140. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: January 23, 2007 at 12:52 AM (#2284843)
1993 ballot:

1. Reggie Jackson, rf: Just a great player -- and he knew it. He was always the picture of supreme confidence at the plate, he knew he could beat you. (PHOM)

2. Steve Carlton, sp: 4 Cys, 15 quality seasons, he was good-to-great every year, even in his losing seasons -- except, of course at the very end. (PHOM)

3. Pete Rose, ut: He’s still despicable, but I’m obliged to consider him this time, and he winds up here. He was the always picture of determination, looking almost desperate to do something to beat you. Who knows? Maybe he had something down on some of those games. To say something nice: I did enjoy his relaxed attitude and good-natured banter during the 44-game hitting streak. (eligible 1992)

Phil Niekro, sp: Same ERA+ as Carlton, and their career WS, Warp3 and TPR totals are similar, but Phil was in the top rank of pitchers less often than Lefty. (PHOM)

5. Rollie Fingers, rp: 2nd or 3rd best reliever to date, either just ahead or just behind the still-active Gossage. Has fallen behind Smith and Reardon in the all-time save rankings, but he’s better than they are. (eligible 1991, PHOM 1991)

6. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

7. Nellie Fox, 2b: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

8. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

9. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

10. Pie Traynor, 3b: Largely forgotten here, but had 11 quality seasons and was a 6-time STATS all-star. (eligible 1941, PHOM 1987)

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)

12. Bobby Bonds, rf: I hadn’t really looked closely at him at first. I’m more impressed with him than Wynn, so I’m slotting him around where Jimmy had been. (eligible 1987)

13. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

14. Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. 6 STATS all-star teams, 11 quality seasons. If we discount 10% for wartime performance, it’s 5.9 and 10.8 respectively. ;-) (eligible 1951)

15. Vern Stephens, ss: Positional balance puts him on -- I’ve been neglecting shortstops somehow, and he looks like the best of that field. (eligible 1961)



Required comments:
Pete Browning, cf: 14th last year, pushed off by new folks, rest of comment preserved for future -- Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. 1876-1991, he’s 33rd all-time in RCAA, 32nd in RCAP. This in a relatively short career. This also with no adjustments up for schedule or down for league quality. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)
Jimmy Wynn: Pretty good peak, career, but I’m not as impressed as others, and think the home-park business is overstated. His home/road numbers don’t seem to support it.
Charlie Keller: Even if I credit ~240 games of good performance in ’44-’45 (my what-ifs for wartime don’t go so far as imagining a peak), he comes up short on career value. Only 7 full-time seasons including those, and a precipitous decline after WW2. No credit pre-1939 -- lots of people are “blocked” at ages 20-21.
Quincy Trouppe: His total absence from the HOF consideration set is most bothersome to me. As others have pointed out, there’s more speculation involved in his MLEs than in those of other players we’ve considered.
Edd Roush: One reason for his resurgence seems to be giving him credit for his mini-, midi- and maxi-holdouts. .I’m not inclined in that direction, so I see in-season durability issues and him hurting his team by his absences. I’m also not wowed by his numbers in context of the time.
   141. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: January 23, 2007 at 12:57 AM (#2284847)
Whoops --

4. Phil Niekro...

Proofread before posting, Don.
   142. KJOK Posted: January 23, 2007 at 01:16 AM (#2284857)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. REGGIE JACKSON, RF. 40 POW, 444 Win Shares, 121 WARP1, 458 RCAP & .666 OWP in 11,416 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Superduperstar!

2. PHIL NIEKRO, P.29 POW, 374 Win Shares, 141 WARP1, 322 RSAA, 274 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 5,404 innings. Just BARELY ahead of Carlton.

3. STEVE CARLTON, P.33 POW, 366 Win Shares, 131 WARP1, 282 RSAA, 268 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 5,217 innings. Just BARELY behind Niekro.

4. PETE ROSE, OF/1B/2B/3B. 24 POW, 547 Win Shares, 166 WARP1, 385 RCAP & .607 OWP in 15,861 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Durability really helped.

5. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

6. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

7. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

8. GENE TENACE, C/1B. 26 POW, 231 Win Shares, 73 WARP1, 244 RCAP & .670 OWP in 5,525 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Highly underrated, and very close to Bresnahan in performance.

9. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

10. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

11. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

12. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

13. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

14. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

15. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

RON CEY, 3B. 21 POW, 280 Win Shares, 95 WARP1, 180 RCAP & .586 OWP in 8,344 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Position ranking makes him almost ballot-worthy.

RETURNEES:

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, 93 WARP1, 129 RCAP & .483 OWP in 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Would rank Monroe ahead of him.

JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 305 Win Shares, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Better than Kiner overall.

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

EDD ROUSH, CF. 10 POW, 110 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .622 OWP in 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.

ROLLIE FINGERS, RP. 23 POW, 188 Win Shares, 80 WARP1, 103 RSAA, & 119 ERA+ in 1,701 innings. Even with post season and leverage, can’t match up to starters with that ERA+.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).
   143. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: January 23, 2007 at 01:30 AM (#2284860)
1. Pete Rose: I chose to emulate his batting stance as a kid although I was a Met fan. I think that says something
2. Reggie Jackson – He was signed by the Yankees at about the same time the Mets signed Tom Hausman. That said something about the directions of the two New York franchises.
3. Steve Carlton – Dominating pitcher who threw in a few clunker seasons, but that’s OK.
4. Phil Niekro – I agree with the voter wha stated that the difference between Carlton and Niekro is the former’s 1972. I looked for reasons to place him lower, but couldn’t find any.
5. Lou Brock: I’m prejudiced in favor of the 3000-900 club. Maybe he wasn’t the sabermetric ideal, but he was a top flight player. The fact that I can joke about a “club” does say something about the player.
6. Tony Oliva: All over the leader boards. Had an eight year “peak” 1964-1971.
7. Jimmy Wynn: Six seasons with an OPS+ of 140 or greater.
8. Rollie Fingers: To the extent relievers can be let in the door, he’s as good as the next guy.
9. Orlando Cepeda: This is where the “next tier” begins. Had one foot in the door before he was 26. He won an MVP after that.
10. Carl Mays: 81 games over .500 and a career 119 ERA+. B-R says he is the cousin of Joe Mays.
11. Nellie Fox: Did quite well in the MVP voting in a sluggers era.
12. Dizzy Dean: The HOM is about excellence and so was Dean.
13. Luis Tiant: Two-time ERA+ leader and four-time twenty game winner
14. Norm Cash: Durability is a concern, resulting in a “career length” issue. Otherwise, he ranks much higher
15. Jake Beckley: Dropped several notches when I compared him with Staub.

I left Browning off my ballot because I am unsure of the level of competition. He may reappear in the future. I’m not sold on Keller because of his career length (Dean was a pitcher with a higher peak so he makes the list). I go back and forth on Roush because I would like a little more power from a player of his era. I like Trouppe, but don’t feel like bumping Beckley on his behalf. Indian Bob, Rusty, and Lefty Gomez knock on the door.
   144. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 23, 2007 at 02:00 AM (#2284873)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
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