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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, December 10, 2006

1993 Ballot Discussion

1993 (January 22)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

444 123.2 1967 Reggie Jackson-RF
374 135.7 1965 Phil Niekro-P
366 133.4 1966 Steve Carlton-P*
280 97.0 1973 Ron Cey-3B
279 84.0 1970 Steve Garvey-1B
257 68.7 1973 Garry Matthews-LF
240 74.8 1973 Davey Lopes-2B
242 68.5 1974 Bill Madlock-3B
222 76.2 1973 Darrell Porter-C (2002)
241 65.6 1973 Cecil Cooper-1B
230 61.8 1970 Hal McRae-DH
205 64.1 1975 Doug DeCinces-3B
181 61.3 1975 Roy Smalley-SS
179 57.4 1973 Dan Driessen-1B
186 50.0 1974 Andre Thornton-1B/DH
152 65.1 1974 Rick Burleson-SS
160 45.3 1972 Jorge Orta-2B/DH
157 41.3 1973 Johnny Grubb-LF/CF
139 48.8 1977 Ruppert Jones-CF
138 47.1 1972 Lee Lacy-RF/LF
114 48.8 1975 Gary Lavelle-RP
121 42.6 1977 Scott McGregor-P*
117 42.5 1980 Tony Bernazard-2B*
107 44.0 1973 Bill Campbell-RP

Players Passing Away in 1992
HoMers
Age Elected

83 1958 Billy Herman-2B

Candidates
Age Eligible

84 1948 Babe Phelps-C
84——Red Barber-Broadcaster
79 1951 Harlond Clift-3B
75 1964 Sal Maglie-P
73 1961 Ed Lopat-P
71 1957 Chuck Connors-1B/Actor
53 1982 Deron Johnson-1B
44 1993 Aurelio Lopez-RP

Thanks, Dan!

 

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 10, 2006 at 10:50 PM | 219 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:12 AM (#2258348)
No backloggers elected this "year."
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:13 AM (#2258350)
...unless a certain gambler doesn't make it in '92, of course.
   3. Juan V Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:20 AM (#2258354)
...unless a certain gambler doesn't make it in '92, of course.


That´s what I was thinking. If Rose has to wait, this year gets very interesting. I haven´t comlpeted my look at Grich, to see if he can measure up to the top of this class.
   4. Juan V Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:26 AM (#2258358)
And, where did the '91 results thread go?
   5. DavidFoss Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:27 AM (#2258360)
PNiekro always generates interesting discussion. Sabermetrically, I think he's in, but it always needs to be spelled out because knucklers never 'seem' to be that dominant.
   6. OCF Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:28 AM (#2258361)
And, where did the '91 results thread go?

Possibly recalled for repairs. At this point John and I disagree on who has been elected - I don't think it was Fox. Details eventually.
   7. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:48 AM (#2258376)
Possibly recalled for repairs. At this point John and I disagree on who has been elected - I don't think it was Fox. Details eventually.

The correct results are now up.

I've been perfect with my tally for months now, but I had to screw up with one of these damn backlog elections...
   8. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:50 AM (#2258531)
Now that I saw a lot of the guys in our newbies queue and now that I have a strong feeling for their times, these little snapshots are a lot of fun....

Reggie Jackson-RF- Few players as controversial without being accused of drugs or throwing games (although he is known to have had a steroids pusher sleeping at his house in the late 1980s). I remember Jackson as a round, old guy who hit 20 homers a year, couldn't run, rarely played the outfield, and hardly seemed athletic. Which is kind of funny given the amazing natural talents he obviously had: footspeed, arm, power, a do-it-all player. Darryl Strawberry is one guy he very much reminds me of, same sets of strengths and weaknesses on the field, but Jackson's competitive fire and ego fueled his playing, while Strawberry's insecurities and ego ate away his career.

Phil Niekro-P- I still remember Knucksie dancing the polka at Yankee Stadium.... Manager of the Silver Bullets women's baseball team... Man, he threw a ton of innings. One of the questions I have about him is whether or not his high innings totals were reflective of his era (and to some degree they must be), or whether they were reflective of the knuckler... Here's the beacon of hope for Tim Wakefield: Phil Niekro won 100 games after his age-forty season. Wakefield has 151 wins through age 39. Let's say he ends up at 165 through age forty. Wakefield's a pretty athletic guy, and because he converted to pitching later in his career (he was an infielder, I think, to begin with), maybe he has an extra season or two on his arm above Niekro (yeah, sure!). Could Wake win 135 games after 40? I'd like to find out! But I doubt it. Mostly, he's just not a good enough pitcher. Niekro finished his 5400+ innings with a 115 ERA+, and most of his age 40+ seasons weren't too pretty (just two at 105 ERA+ or more). Wakefield in his 1400+ innings has but a 108 ERA+, it doesn't look very positive for Tim.

Steve Carlton-P*- Tough choice between him and Niekro. Carlton's kind of interesting in that he has a lot of peaks and valleys. WS loves him because he threw a ton of innings. Just a ton for a non-knuckle guy. Essentially 250 or more innings every year from 1970 through 1983 (190 in the strike year, so equivalent; in this span, one year he was at 247). That must be the upside of all the eastern training methods. Unlike Seaver, however, he's not exactly super effective. He's got a lot of OK ERA+s with a few great ones scattered about. Here's Carlton, Niekro, and Seaver with a mystery guest thrown in:
years of 100+ innings
SC 182 164 162 151 150 126 119 117 115 113 111 110 106 105 101 101 98 80 78
PN 177 159 140 140 125 124 123 120 119 118 116 115 115 111 104 103 101 98 98 96 72
TS 193 175 166 150 145 142 140 137 136 127 123 122 119 115 112 105 105 103 98 68
?? 158 151 142 142 140 135 129 127 126 125 123 118 117 116 108 108 108 95 84 75 73

Niekro vs Carlton is a peak/prime argument, but Seaver whomps them both and how. Our mystery pitcher is very much in the argument with a prime argument stronger than Niekro's but a peak argument that's weakest of the bunch. But overall, ?? clearly belongs. He is Bert Blyleven.

Ron Cey-3B- As was the fashion around here for a while: Ron Cey nq Sal Bando. It's close, of course, but they are essentially the same player, so if one doesn't, then why the other?

Steve Garvey-1B- A delicious irony to possibly have Mr. Nice and Charlie Hustle on the same ballot! Two of the most shattered public personas of the 1980s. Also fun to have most of the great Dodger infield debuting on the ballot simultaneously. Garvey must have been considered the best among them when they were a unit, and probably at his retirement, yet in hindsight there's reason to believe he wasn't as valuable as Cey. (see also Davey Lopes, below.)

Garry Matthews-LF- Big Sarge. Does he get war credit?

Davey Lopes-2B- Also does Davey Lopes get war credit. I reported elsewhere in various threads that Lopes did some service time with U. Sam in the late 1960s, delaying his debut. Actually let me ask a question with this in mind. Let's say you could put one of the 24-year-old Garvey, Cey, or Lopes into a time machine and fast-forward him to 2007. Just one, and you could make him a starter on your big league team with the prior knowledge that they would be with your team for 10 years, which one would you most want? There's an argument for all three of them. Cey and Garvey we covered above, and they are close (I'd probably take Cey). But what about Lopes? Well, I just mentioned the missed time due to the service. He was drafted out of college, which meant that he was probably 22 in his first minor league campaigns. The combo of these two things plus the presence of Jimmy Gilliam meant that Lopes didn't make LA until age 27 and wasn't a regular until age 28! So most of the career we saw was decline. Given that Lopes had a pretty well rounded offensive game with good steal%s, walks, some power, and durability, he's perhaps as good a choice as the other two. His defense wasn't great, but he was athletic enough to avoid turning into Larry Doyle at a tough position. I wonder if a team that didn't have Willie Davis or Rick Monday around would have made him a CF. Mostly I wonder if the delays on the front end of his career limited the amount of growth/upside he had later in his career, since players who debut earlier seem to have more ceiling than later ones. Good player, no HOMer, but if he got a do-over, especially in our current walks/homers climate, I wonder if he'd be the one you'd take.

Bill Madlock-3B- Worst player with four batting titles? I didn't realize how controversial he was in his time, but maybe I should have, owing to his having played for numerous teams. My defining moment for his was September 24th, 1987. I've always wondered if his take-out slide into Tony Fernandez might have ruined a possible HOF/HOM career. Now I know that's idle speculation, but if you look at Fernandez's OPS+ through the injury, he was rising quickly from light-hitting gold glover to a very good offensive contributor particularly for a SS (going from OPS+s in the 80s and 90s to a peak of 112 in 1987 itself, his age 26 season). Fernandez missed the rest of 1987, hobbling the sinking Jays' playoff chances, and in the next several years, he lost ground on OPS+, sinking below average. Later, in early 1989, he was beaned in the face by Cecilo Guante, which couldn't have helped either. It wasn't until very late in his career that he had another good OPS+ year, with two straight 120+ years out of nowhere in the late 1990s. Did he peak early and quickly regress? I don't know, but I've always wondered if Madlock's slide turned Fernandez into a HOVG player.

Darrell Porter-C (2002)- Sad, coke-addled death in a KC (IIRC) public park. Porter might have been the AL's best catcher in the wake of Munson's death as Fisk had turned in a couple-few subpar years and wasn't yet entering his Chicago renaissance. Lots of power and patience, not much average, no speed, not known for his defense. I think of him as the Jorge Posada of his era. Not quite as good as Posada, really, but in the vein of being the third or fourth best catcher of the era and having the same offensive profile.

Cecil Cooper-1B- You could make a group of guys like Cooper. One of them is on this list, Steve Garvey. The common thread is first basemen who hit for good average, drove in lots of runs, didn't have stupendous power but could hit homers and doubles, and didn't walk all that often. Garvey, Cooper, Mattingly. Those guys seem like the nucleus of a family to me, without looking at any numbers, just off the cuff. Other possible guys on the family tree: Mickey Vernon, Bill Terry, Jim Bottomley, Andres Galarraga, Bob Watson, Bill White, Wally Joyner, Sean Casey. And if you must, Hal Morris.

Hal McRae-DH- The best retired DHs so far in no order: Baylor, McRae, Andre Thornton, Cliff Johnson, Mitchell Paige. I don't see any HOMers there either.

Doug DeCinces-3B- The Orioles let him go to make room for some rookie after the 1981 season. What were they thinking? Decinces is a guy who it's very hard to say much about.

Roy Smalley-SS- Great couple years before the back problems caught up to him. I mostly remember him as a huge disappointment to Yankee fans. Part of the pre-Jeter Yankees revolving SS door, and in retrospect, a player maybe somewhat like Jeter in having a good power/patience combo for a SS. Better glove though.... Anyway, that revolving door: Dent then Smalley then the Bobby Meacham Horror Picture Show (with cameos Mike Fishlin, and Paul Zuvella), Wayne Tolleson, a little Rafael Santana, three years of Alvaro Espinoza, hopes for Dave Silvestri (remember him?), Stanky(!!!), Spike Owen, then the two-headed Gallego/Velarde arrangement, then Tony Fenrandez in 1995 before Jeter finally won a job. It ain't 30-some years of Cubs or Mets 3Bs, but it was ugly while it lasted.

Dan Driessen-1B- In 1985, Jack Clark got hurt and White dredged up Cesar Cedeno who went bonkers for four weeks and helped win a flag. In 1987 history repeated itself as Clark was hurt and Whitey trolled in veteran Dan Dreissen for a month who promptly proceeded to...hit 233/309/317 to, uh, lead the Cards to victory. Gee, might as well have let Tom Lawless play.

Andre Thornton-1B/DH- Just talking about him. Bill James mentioned somewhere about Thornton's bad attitude. Anyone got more on this, I never heard much about it.

Rick Burleson-SS- He was really great until like 1982, then splat. Did he hurt himself? Not another air conditioner?

Jorge Orta-2B/DH- He's still out. He must have been a pretty rotten defender to go from 2B to DH. One of Mexico's biggest U.S. stars, however.

Johnny Grubb-LF/CF- Underrated in his prime, I suspect, since he had a robust but not flashy offensive game, but by the time I knew of him, the 1984 Tigers, he was a role player and would be fork tender within a couple years.

Ruppert Jones-CF- Another 1984 Tiger. I never quite got what kind of player he was. For some reason I remember him as a power hitter, and did hit 20 homers thrice, back when that meant something. But not really a big power guy. He did walk a fair amount (534 walks, 5038 PAs), but his averages were low enough that he was barely over the league's OBP. I recall him as a slow DH type, and he stole at a 63% clip, but he once stole 30 bases and had 143 career. Here's something interesting: 796 OPS vs righties, .609 vs lefties. Anyway, an odd kind of guy who did several things well, several things not as well, and whose results never quite formed a solid picture in my mind.

Lee Lacy-RF/LF- I just remember his big year in 1984 as part of the Coke Pirates, leading to a very disappointing contract with Balto.

Scott McGregor-P*- Is he a member of the "Classy" lefty genre? Or is he strictly a slopballer? Jimmy Key or Jeff Ballard?

Tony Bernazard-2B*- Surprisingly little career legnth and value, despite some nice seasons in the 1980s. What led to his exit from the game? Did he got to Japan? Was he hurt?

Bill Campbell-RP- Threw 120 innings in 1974 and 1975. Then... 1976: 168 innings, 17-5, 20 saves, 120 ERA+. They do not make them like that anymore. 1977: 140 innings, 13-9, 30 saves, 153 ERA+. Nor like that. Nor did Campbell, though. He wouldn't throw 100 innings again until 1982 and not more than 55 between 1977 and 1982. And he never saved 10 games in a year again either. And had only one more year with ERA+ above 107. Maybe, in a backhanded way, an indication that the Sox are doing the right thing with Johnathan Papelbon?
   9. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:56 AM (#2258541)
I remember Jackson as a round, old guy who hit 20 homers a year, couldn't run, rarely played the outfield, and hardly seemed athletic.

When was Jackson round? I remember him with a flat stomach, even with the Angels.
   10. Chris Fluit Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:01 AM (#2258552)
Reggie Jackson-RF- Few players as controversial without being accused of drugs or throwing games (although he is known to have had a steroids pusher sleeping at his house in the late 1980s). I remember Jackson as a round, old guy who hit 20 homers a year, couldn't run, rarely played the outfield, and hardly seemed athletic.

I have a similar impression of a lot of the great players from the '70s. I started paying attention to baseball in the early '80s. I noticed a number of players who had big reputations but old or slow or no-good. It wasn't until years later that I realized that a lot of these players had earned their reputations years earlier even if they were no longer playing at that level when I started watching them.

It wasn't until very late in his career that he had another good OPS+ year, with two straight 120+ years out of nowhere in the late 1990s. Did he peak early and quickly regress? I don't know, but I've always wondered if Madlock's slide turned Fernandez into a HOVG player.

I did a study of Fernandez' career a while back and those two 120+ years really stood out at me. They were significantly better than any other offensive year and they happened when he was in his late thirties. Oh, and he was in his late thirties in the late nineties. I don't normally jump to this conclusion but I really had to wonder if maybe Tony had started "juicing up" in order to keep his career going.
   11. Howie Menckel Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:05 AM (#2258559)
Niekro per my top 10 IP system:

PNiekro 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 5 9 10 10

I don't have my HOM-er comps at this moment, but I think that's fairly typical of the Niekro-type guys.
   12. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:42 AM (#2258589)
When was Jackson round? I remember him with a flat stomach, even with the Angels.

I don't remember him as fat exactly, he wasn't Gorman Thomas with the overhanging belly, but in those sansabelt gray Angels road unis of the 1980s he seemed kind of not-athletic and doughy to me. Maybe round wasn't the right word, then? But when I see pictures of him in the early 1970s, chiseled looking, it makes me think of him as rounder in the late years.
   13. sunnyday2 Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:44 AM (#2258594)
>Andre Thornton-1B/DH- Just talking about him. Bill James mentioned somewhere about Thornton's bad attitude. Anyone got more on this, I never heard much about it.

Doc, you got that one backwards. My recollection is the guy was a saint.

And Reggie in 1969 and sometimes thereafter was in-#######-credible. Barry Bonds, basically.

Bill Campbell? In-#######-credible. Dominant. Pretty near Gossage-land for one incredible season. OK, make that Joe Nathan. The Twins have always had a good closer. Campbell and Nathan, Nathan and Campbell. Those are your two guys who just dominated.

Roy Smalley--one year he was just in-#######-credible. Oh, never mind. (But he was.)
   14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:17 PM (#2258716)
I don't remember him as fat exactly, he wasn't Gorman Thomas with the overhanging belly, but in those sansabelt gray Angels road unis of the 1980s he seemed kind of not-athletic and doughy to me. Maybe round wasn't the right word, then? But when I see pictures of him in the early 1970s, chiseled looking, it makes me think of him as rounder in the late years.

It must have been the uniforms, Eric. If you ever catch an episode of "Greatest Sports Legends" with Jackson as the host from the mid-Eighties, he appears to be in fine shape.
   15. karlmagnus Posted: December 12, 2006 at 02:27 PM (#2258720)
I watched Reggie intensively in summer 1980 when I was trapped near NYC with only Yankees on TV. He wasn't fat, but he was a rotten fielder, worse than Manny today. Easy HOMer though, and I would have said so then -- better hitter than Rice (and I thought that then, too.)
   16. sunnyday2 Posted: December 12, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2258777)
I'm a Jim Rice fan, but clearly Reggie in his prime was a vastly better hitter. My favorite Reggie stat is simply his road BA, which is better than Yaz road BA. I don't know and I don't care if he was better than Yaz or Yaz was better than Reggie, though I do think it's an open question. The point is that the only knock on Reggie, a poor BA, is a total red herring.

Still, in the late '70s-early '80s, I do not believe that Reggie was still better than Rice.
   17. Evan Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:00 PM (#2258784)
Reggie was fat, and round - see for yourselves.

http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r284/asdf123_014/Jackson.jpg
   18. karlmagnus Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#2258786)
He was in 1980, I just checked. Jacksomn's OPS+ was 172 to Rice's 123. Being in Britain, I missed Rice's 1978 (still only 158) so to me, his reputation was greater than the reality. But Reggie's well above the borderline, fielding or no fielding. Better base stealerthan Pete Rose, too (you can look it up!)
   19. sunnyday2 Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:12 PM (#2258807)
OK, not only that but Reggie played 143 games, Rice only 124. I stand corrected.
   20. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: December 12, 2006 at 04:24 PM (#2258822)
Niekro is one of only two liveball pitchers to win and lose 20 in the same year. The other is his contemporaneous knuckleballer Wilbur Wood. Good trivia.
   21. DL from MN Posted: December 12, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2258903)
1) Rose (if unelected)
2) Niekro
3) Carlton
4) Jackson
5) Grich (if unelected)

18) Cey - very good glove helps him over Bob Elliott

50) Porter - in the same neighborhood as Munson, Tenace, Bresnahan, Howard and Schang

100) Steve Garvey - how is he still on the HoF ballot all these years later and Lou Whitaker fell off after a year?
   22. DCW3 Posted: December 12, 2006 at 09:02 PM (#2259169)
Better base stealerthan Pete Rose, too (you can look it up!)

He was also quite a bit taller than Eddie Gaedel.
   23. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 13, 2006 at 12:40 AM (#2259360)
Reggie was fat, and round - see for yourselves.

I saw it on the internet, it must be true!!!
   24. OCF Posted: December 13, 2006 at 01:01 AM (#2259387)
Dag Nabbit hasn't posted on this thread yet. Something tells me we'll hear from him sooner or later, about a certain first baseman.
   25. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 13, 2006 at 03:29 AM (#2259593)
Reggie was fat, and round - see for yourselves.

I saw it on the internet, it must be true!!!


lol
   26. Cblau Posted: December 13, 2006 at 03:58 AM (#2259627)
Davey Lopes-2B- I wonder if a team that didn't have Willie Davis or Rick Monday around would have made him a CF.

Actually, Lopes was an OF in the minors (so was Bill Russell.) He didn't start playing second until sometime in 1971 it seems (played about 1/2 his games there.)
   27. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: December 13, 2006 at 05:59 AM (#2259706)
One of the questions I have about him is whether or not his high innings totals were reflective of his era (and to some degree they must be), or whether they were reflective of the knuckler...

I think it's more the knuckler. The heydey of working pitchers was the first half of the 1970s, and Niekro went wild in the second half. The workloads were heavier in the AL, and Niekro pitched in the NL. In 1975, Andy Messersmith became the last non-knuckling NL pitcher to start 40 games. Niekro averaged over 40 starts in the next five years. Oh wait, I missed Randy Jones in 1976 and Steve Rogers in 1977. Still, from 1977-9 he was throwing far more than anyone else.

Steve Carlton-P*- Tough choice between him and Niekro.

If you think it's close please remember: knucklers always give up more unearned runs. Damn passed balls. ERA+ inflates Niekro's value.

Niekro is one of only two liveball pitchers to win and lose 20 in the same year. The other is his contemporaneous knuckleballer Wilbur Wood. Good trivia.

And Niekro's 21-20 season is still the last time any NL pitcher has lost 20 games. Who woulda thunk the last 20 loser in the NL would possess a winning record?

Favorite Davey Lopes story: while managing the Brewers he got involved in a controversy. With the Pads up by several runs late, Rickey, being Rickey, stole second base. An angry Lopes yelled at Rickey they'd stick one in his ear for that. I think they did and that's why it became a controversy. The great part: the next day Elias came out with the information that in Lopes's own career he'd stolen 6-7 bases with his team up by that much late in the game. Gotta love it. You can't escape from anything these days.

And of course, the three worst things a person can be are:
1) A Nazi war criminal
2) A child molester
3) Steve Garvey
The former first baseman is, as far as I know, the only person who fits into all three categories. . . . That being said, he was one of the best post-season performers of his generation.
   28. Raoul Duke Posted: December 13, 2006 at 06:09 AM (#2259715)
There was nothing in the world as satisfying in the '80s/'90s (well, I mean, outside of Miami Vice) as watching Steve Garvey's public persona spontaneously combust. That was just so . . . wonderful, in the sense of something bad happening bad to someone you loathe - it's just marvelous but you are not supposed to admit that in polite society. Being Irish/Cherokee, I give nary a damn for polite society. Steve Garvey HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
   29. Chris Cobb Posted: December 13, 2006 at 06:20 AM (#2259721)
Steve Carlton-P*- Tough choice between him and Niekro.

If you think it's close please remember: knucklers always give up more unearned runs. Damn passed balls. ERA+ inflates Niekro's value.


But ERA+ also underrates Niekro because Niekro generally pitched in front of poor defenses. His NRA/DERA split in WARP is 4.07/3.96 Carlton goes the other way: 4.01/4.08 .

Still, I myself have Carlton slightly over Niekro. Lefty's _bad_ final years hurt his career rate stats.
   30. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 13, 2006 at 03:31 PM (#2259949)
cblau,

interesting about lopes; i wonder if an earlier transition to 2b would have given him time/experience enough to become an average or better defender.
   31. karlmagnus Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:46 AM (#2260876)
Will Matsuzaka be the first Japanese born player in the HOM? I suppose Matsui and Ichiro both have near-borderline cases, but they're neither of them in without a LOT of trsnlated Japanese credfit. Nomo even less so.

Sorry, just a quick gloat....
   32. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:13 AM (#2260907)
Karl,

Can we let the guy pitch a game in MLB before we anoint him Cy Young Reincarnate?
   33. Michael Bass Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:15 AM (#2260908)
The only interesting question from this election: Who among the Big Four (Reggie, Niekro, Carlton, Rose/Grich depending on boycotts) has to wait a year? I could see a very tight race for 3rd developing.
   34. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:20 AM (#2260914)
Another question. Is Karl the straw that stirs the HOM's drink???? ; )
   35. Chris Cobb Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:22 AM (#2260922)
It depends on the effect of the Rose boycott votes.

If Rose is elected in 1992, then Grich waits until 1994 (I mean, he's horribly underrated and all, but would we take him over Jackson, Carlton, or Niekro? Seems unlikely)
If Grich is elected in 1992, then Rose goes in in 1993 (possibly in the #1 slot) and one of the Big Three newbies will have to wait. My guess would be Niekro, but Jackson is going to look a little less grand than people expect, I think. WARP's view of him is remarkably tepid, though DH adjusted WARP3 is a touch more friendly.
   36. OCF Posted: December 14, 2006 at 06:57 AM (#2261016)
Working up Carlton and Niekro in the RA+ equivalent system. (And yes, Dag Nabbit, since this is RA, I'm including Niekro's unearned runs.) The following represents their years sorted best to worst according to single-season equivalent FWP. The won-loss record is equivalent; the third number is that single-season FWP.

Carlton     Niekro
28
-10  38   23-11  28
24
-10  30   21-11  23
20
-11  22   23-14  23
18
8  22   158  16
14
7  16   16-11  16
19
-14  16   20-16  15
16
-11  15   21-17  15
17
-11  15   18-14  14
19
-14  15   17-13  14
17
-14  13   17-13  12
15
-13   9   16-13  11
12
-10   9   16-14  11
15
-14   9   16-14  11
15
-15   8   14-12   9
16
-17   7   12-11   7
13
-13   7    97   6
13
-13   5   13-13   6
 2
1   3   12-12   5
 0
1  -1    11   0
 6
-11  -2    69  -1
 7
-13  -4    24  -


Carlton's career sums to an equivalent 328-252, or 261 FWP.
Niekro's career sums to an equivalent 334-266, or 253 FWP.

Joe Niekro also appears to be eligible in 1993. His equivalent record is 196-202. All right, so he's not a serious candidate.

Phil Niekro and Carlton both have a high number of IP per decision - 9.13 and 9.10 respectively. The system above compensates by giving them more equivalent decisions than their real decisions.

Carlton rather famously had back-to-back years with the Cardinals (1970-71) in which his record swung from 10-19 to 20-9. The RA+-equivalent system completely flattens that and more, to 15-13 followed by 15-15.

Carlton's 1972 legitimately belongs on a rather short list of the greatest pitching seasons of the 20th century, although Gaylord Perry nearly matched it in the same year. It does stick up well above the rest of his career, although 1980 is also a very good year (that's the 24-10).
   37. OCF Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:10 AM (#2261039)
I'll take the following ranking order:

Seaver > Gibson > Perry > Carlton > Niekro > Palmer > Jenkins

They're all HoMers, of course. Palmer that "low" on this particular list, and with Niekro ahead of him, has to do with defensive support. And Gibson over Perry is a peak bonus.
   38. Howie Menckel Posted: December 14, 2006 at 02:24 PM (#2261086)
Will Darrell Porter get a thread?
Gene Tenace did..
   39. DanG Posted: December 14, 2006 at 03:05 PM (#2261103)
Joe Niekro also appears to be eligible in 1993.

His appearance in 5 games in 1988 pushes his eligibility to 1994.
   40. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:27 PM (#2261444)
Will Darrell Porter get a thread?
Gene Tenace did..


For this class, I'm probably going to post (Christmas Eve weekend) 10 new player threads.

Does that answer your question, Howie? ;-)
   41. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:04 PM (#2261590)
OK, so here's a question for the group that's kind of a looking-back question that we can chibble at over the holidays.

As an individual voter, who are the most difficult-to-analyze/rank players you've come across? You know, that small handful of guys who just throw your system into fits, or who make your tummy feel funny because you can't pick between two equally compelling lines of thinking about them. The ones you probably don't vote for, and who you may secretly avoid discussing at great length because you feel so unsure about how the rate out in your thinking?

Here's some of mine: Waddell, Joss, Boyer, Latham, Schang, Munson, Long, Luque, McCormick, Mullane, Newcome.
   42. Chris Fluit Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:30 PM (#2261624)
some of the split position candidates like Bresnahan and Leach
   43. rawagman Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:02 AM (#2261747)
In my short time with this project, I have shown myself to be adrift from consensus.
I beleive a big portion of that can be attributed to my disdain at systems which rate individuals singularly for their participation in a group setting. I do not look at WARP or WS simply because I don't have an inclination to measure that aspect of baseball. I find it leaning too much towards circumstance and not as much on performance. Granted, there is a large overlap between the two, but there will, by design, remian areas uncovered.
So I measure players as best as I can without it. I used to think of myself as peak. I now see that I really try to vote for players whose games are all-round. Some peak, some prime, some career.
I find myself less concerned with final numbers than with how they were acheived.
While in my time here the electorate has chosen ten players who have yet to reach my PHOM, the majority of them are very close to mine. The farthest from my taste (thus far) are the middle infielders - Moore, Childs and Gordon.
The issue with my system which sometimes concerns me (not too much, but a bit) is that it may undervalue corner outfielders who did not have high (and durable) peaks and/or impressive defensive reputations. I had B. Williams and Stargell lower than the consensus, but Gavvy Cravath and Bobby Veach rank relatively well.
   44. Juan V Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:07 AM (#2261755)
I just did some of the work on this group. I am sooo no looking forward to sorting out the big three newbies + whoever is left from Rose/Grich. In particular, Carlton and Niekro might as well be clones of each other: Same number of seasons, same ERA+, virtually identical career value on my ERA+ system (Carlton does have a higher prime, though)

But the guy who surprised me was Cey: Similar to Boyer but with a bit more career, and a glance at his BPro page makes him look good too. Might make another newbie on my '93 ballot (and, inspired by this, I should probably take another look at Bando, right?).
   45. Juan V Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:08 AM (#2261756)
I just did some of the work on this group. I am sooo no looking forward to sorting out the big three newbies + whoever is left from Rose/Grich. In particular, Carlton and Niekro might as well be clones of each other: Same number of seasons, same ERA+, virtually identical career value on my ERA+ system (Carlton does have a higher prime, though)

But the guy who surprised me was Cey: Similar to Boyer but with a bit more career, and a glance at his BPro page makes him look good too. Might make another newbie on my '93 ballot (and, inspired by this, I should probably take another look at Bando, right?).
   46. Juan V Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:10 AM (#2261759)
Sorry about that...

As for the players who make my system struggle, definitely the multi-position guys. I almost tore my hair trying to figure out how to treat Rose.
   47. yest Posted: December 15, 2006 at 04:44 AM (#2261992)
this will be my ballot if a certian someone dosn't make it in 92
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
   48. Howie Menckel Posted: December 15, 2006 at 05:42 AM (#2262040)
Hmm,
A wild guess says that ballot will be invalidated...
   49. Paul Wendt Posted: December 15, 2006 at 06:20 AM (#2262057)
For this class, I'm probably going to post (Christmas Eve weekend) 10 new player threads.

If you mean the first ten as listed, let me suggest that Hal McRae #11 may provide the occasion for broaching the DH seriously.

On the other hand, analysis of the DH may merit its own thread. I admit ignorance of the states of the arts --how people adjust individual player records or league benchmarks for the DH.
   50. OCF Posted: December 15, 2006 at 07:12 AM (#2262086)
(Dr. Chaleeko, #8):

Reggie Jackson-RF- Few players as controversial without being accused of drugs or throwing games (although he is known to have had a steroids pusher sleeping at his house in the late 1980s)

Was that Jackson? Or was that Rose? Or was it both of them? I specifically remember it being true of Rose; I don't have any such recollections about Jackson, not that that proves anything.

Two other comments about REGGIE™ (not to be confused with R. Smith):

1. He had his single best year at the age of 23. And even with that year, he hit his 30th home run on July 1, his 37th by the All-Star break, his 40th on July 29. The idea of hitting 61 was in the air - the buzz could be felt. Before the ASB he hit .287/.414/.716, playing every day. After the break, missing about 10 games, he went .258/.406/.453, finishing the year with a "mere" 47 HR. So the year - his greatest - gets remembered as a disappointment.

2. Jackson, Martin, and Steinbrenner - a perfectly matched (or mismatched) mixture. Who can forget, "One's a born liar and the other is convicted"?
   51. sunnyday2 Posted: December 15, 2006 at 01:35 PM (#2262164)
Reggie was regarded as an arrogant SOB, basically. Sort of in the Muhummad Ali "I am the greatest" mold, though not quite as over the top. "I am the straw that stirs the drink" is just a bit self-centered, don't you think. A showman, a self-promoter. Not so much in the Dick Allen mold though some people kinda lumped them together. People hated him for it. Not everybody, of course. The fact that he was black maybe had something to do with it.
   52. Mike Webber Posted: December 15, 2006 at 03:29 PM (#2262204)
yest Posted: December 14, 2006 at 10:44 PM (#2261992)
this will be my ballot if a certian someone dosn't make it in 92
1.


Tony Oliva?

Joe Morgan?
   53. DavidFoss Posted: December 15, 2006 at 04:08 PM (#2262228)
Well, there's the prelim we've often asked yest to post to take the sting out of his monday morning surprises. :-)
   54. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 15, 2006 at 04:52 PM (#2262257)
Doc,

Good question. I have to say that sometimes I think I am overrating Dean and Rosen, both are now in m top 5 or 6 non PHOM players and it makes me a little uneasy thinking they will soon be PHOM, especially Rosen.

I also think that sometimes I underrate great defensive middle infielders like Bancroft, Maranville, and Mazeroski. I also have to keep looking at McGraw, Chance, and Roush. And for some reason I really have no idea how to rank Tommy Leach, who has been as high as #6 for me and as low as #45 (Currently in the 30's i think). I think that Leach is someone that a lot of voters ahve trouble with.
   55. DanG Posted: December 15, 2006 at 04:54 PM (#2262260)
What?!? Yest says he won't vote in '93 if Rose doesn't make it in '92? Boycott here I come!
   56. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 15, 2006 at 04:54 PM (#2262261)
Really yest? You are that invested in Pie Traynor making the HOM this year? Stay patient.

Honestly, why would you do that since that certain someone would pretty much be guaranteed election in 1993.
   57. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 15, 2006 at 04:57 PM (#2262265)
More on Leach...

Taking just the WS part of my system, if I were to rank him solely as a CFer his numbers are underwhelming and he isnt' a real candidate. WS seems to love CFers, especially from that era. However, if I rank him solely as a 3B I woudl have had him above Boyer (i.e. in my top ten) and would be auguring for his election. And then Warp is not too big a fan of his either. He is one candidate that I would love a close look at in the near future to decide if he is worth more votes.
   58. yest Posted: December 15, 2006 at 06:30 PM (#2262324)
to clarify I'll extend the boycott one more year
   59. sunnyday2 Posted: December 15, 2006 at 06:43 PM (#2262337)
To clarify...you just don't want to vote for Pete Rose? And you won't vote in '93 if he is still eligible? That is certainly a person's right.
   60. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 15, 2006 at 06:45 PM (#2262340)
Well, since blank ballots and two-year boycotts are both, as best I understand, unconstitutional, that means yest needn't post a ballot in the n+1 boycott year.... It does seem OK that he should be allowed to not post a ballot in protest, but not that he should post a blank ballot.
   61. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 15, 2006 at 06:47 PM (#2262344)
RE post 50.

OCF, I probably should have attributed the Reggie thing. Here's the story about the steroid dealer who Reggie palled around with and had as a house guest:

Steroid dealer on Reggie's couch

The pertinent paragraph is about 2/3s of the way down.

Jackson, who let Wenzlaff [DR. C's NOTE: the dealer] stay in his Oakland home for long stretches in the late 1980s, says he was not aware that Wenzlaff had allegedly supplied steroids to Canseco or anyone else until last year when Wenzlaff testified before a Senate subcommittee investigating steroid use in pro, college and high school sports.


But, yes, I had forgotten about Paul Janzen, Pete Rose's steroid-selling friend and house guest!

Hustler on C. Hustlers's couch

In the third week of February, they accepted Rose's invitation and left to spend six weeks at his Tampa rental house.


Interesting side line to all this: Pete Rose, Jr. was apparently busted for possessing/selling steroids.

Lil' Pete story

I'm boycotting Rose for not instilling moral values in his children! (Just kidding, I'm still not boycotting.)
   62. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 15, 2006 at 10:32 PM (#2262635)
If you mean the first ten as listed, let me suggest that Hal McRae #11 may provide the occasion for broaching the DH seriously.

That's a good point, Paul. Make that 11 then. :-)

It does seem OK that he should be allowed to not post a ballot in protest, but not that he should post a blank ballot.

As long as he knows that it wont count, I have no problem with him posting his "ballot" as a statement against Rose.

BTW, Though I will vote for him if he's on the ballot in '93, I empathize with yest's feelings in regard to Rose.
   63. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 17, 2006 at 01:22 PM (#2263686)
Just want to point out to everyone to check out the new 'neutralized stats' at baseball-reference.com Very helpful for putting short-season guys into perspective compared to modern players.

Ezra Sutton 2800 career hits, Jake Beckley 3148, etc. . . . very nice to be able to see it without having to do the work yourself. Sean adjusts everyone to a 162 game season and a 750 R/Team environment.
   64. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 17, 2006 at 01:26 PM (#2263688)
Also note, however, that the rate stats tend to be lower for the years with more errors, even though they are 'normalized', because to get a team down to 750 runs per 162 games with all of those errors means there didn't need to be much offense otherwise . . .
   65. DanG Posted: December 18, 2006 at 10:06 PM (#2264471)
Here are the top 4 unelected players in each election through 1991:

1898    Williamson     O'Neill       Jones, C       Welch
1899    Browning*     Williamson  O'
Neill         Dunlap
1900    Browning     Williamson  Mullane
*       Welch
1901    Browning     Williamson  Welch         McCormick
1902    Browning     Williamson  Welch         McCormick
1903    Browning     Williamson  Welch         McCormick
1904    Browning     Griffin
*       Williamson  Welch
1905    Browning     Tiernan
*       Griffin         McCormick
1906    Browning     Tiernan       McCormick   Williamson
1907    Duffy
*     Browning       Tiernan         Griffin
1908    Duffy     Tiernan       Browning       Williamson
1909    Ryan
*     Duffy       Van Haltren*McCormick
1910    Duffy     Ryan       Van Haltren Browning
1911    Duffy     Ryan       Van Haltren Tiernan
1912    Duffy     Ryan       Van Haltren Tiernan
1913    Duffy     Ryan       Beckley
*       Van Haltren
1914    Duffy     Ryan       Beckley         Van Haltren
1915    Duffy     Ryan       Van Haltren Beckley
1916    Duffy     Ryan       Van Haltren Beckley
1917    Duffy     Van Haltren Beckley         Ryan
1918    Van Haltren     Ryan       Beckley         Duffy
1919    Van Haltren     Ryan       Beckley         Duffy
1920    Duffy     Van Haltren Beckley         Ryan
1921    Bresnahan
*     Beckley       Duffy         Ryan
1922    Beckley     Bresnahan   Duffy         Van Haltren
1923    Beckley     Ryan       Van Haltren Duffy
1924    Beckley     Ryan       Duffy         Van Haltren
1925    Van Haltren     Beckley       Ryan         Bresnahan
1926    Beckley     Van Haltren Ryan         Bresnahan
1927    Beckley     Van Haltren Ryan         Bresnahan
1928    Beckley     Van Haltren Ryan         Bresnahan
1929    Beckley     Van Haltren Ryan         Bresnahan
1930    Van Haltren     Beckley       Ryan        Bresnahan
1931    Van Haltren     Beckley       Bresnahan   Ryan
1932    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Bresnahan
1933    Van Haltren     Beckley       Welch         Duffy
1934    Beckley     Van Haltren Welch         Browning
1935    Beckley     Van Haltren Welch         Browning
1936    Beckley     Van Haltren Welch         Browning
1937    Beckley     Welch       Browning       Van Haltren
1938    Beckley     Welch       Van Haltren Browning
1939    Beckley     Van Haltren Leach         Welch
1940    Beckley     Leach       Van Haltren Duffy
1941    Leach     Beckley       Van Haltren Duffy
1942    Van Haltren Leach       Beckley         Duffy
1943    Beckley     Van Haltren Duffy         Leach
1944    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Leach
1945    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Roush
1946    Beckley     Duffy       Van Haltren Roush
1947    Beckley     Van Haltren Duffy         Roush
1948    Beckley     Van Haltren Duffy         Welch
1949    Beckley     Van Haltren Roush         Duffy
1950    Beckley     Van Haltren Duffy         Welch
1951    Beckley     Van Haltren Duffy         Roush
1952    Van Haltren Beckley       Duffy         Redding
1953    Van Haltren Beckley       Welch         Duffy
1954    Beckley     Van Haltren Redding         Browning
1955    Beckley     Van Haltren Welch         Redding
1956    Beckley     Van Haltren Redding         Duffy
1957    Beckley     Van Haltren Duffy         Welch
1958    Beckley     Van Haltren Duffy         Browning
1959    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Welch
1960    Van Haltren     Beckley       Browning       Duffy
1961    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Browning
1962    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Browning
1963    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Browning
1964    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Redding
1965    Van Haltren     Beckley       Duffy         Redding
1966    Van Haltren     Beckley       Redding         Duffy
1967    Van Haltren     Beckley       Redding         Browning
1968    Van Haltren     Beckley       Redding         Duffy
1969    Van Haltren     Redding       Beckley         Duffy
1970    Van Haltren Redding       Beckley         Browning
1971    Redding     Van Haltren Beckley         Browning
1972    Van Haltren     Redding       Beckley     Duffy
1973    Redding     Van Haltren Beckley         Duffy
1974    Redding     Van Haltren Duffy         Beckley
1975    Redding     Duffy       Browning       Van Haltren
1976    Redding     Beckley       Duffy         Van Haltren
1977    Redding     Beckley       Duffy         Van Haltren
1978    Beckley     Duffy       Redding         Fox
1979    Beckley     Redding       Duffy         Fox
1980    Beckley     Duffy       Redding         Jones
C
1981    Redding     Duffy       Beckley         Fox
1982    Duffy     Beckley       Redding         Fox
1983    Beckley     Duffy       Redding         Fox
1984    Beckley     Redding       Fox         Wynn
1985    Fox     Beckley       Redding         Wynn
1986    Fox     Redding       Wynn         Beckley
1987    Fox     Wynn       Beckley         Trouppe
1988    Wynn     Fox       Jones
C       Beckley
1989    Wynn     Fox       Roush         Browning
1990    Wynn     Fox       Browning       Keller
1991    Fox     Wynn       Trouppe         Roush 
   66. DL from MN Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:31 PM (#2265260)
1993 Prelim (Assuming Seaver & Rose)

1) Niekro, Phil
2) Carlton, Steve - Niekro and Carlton are even in PRAA if you remove Carlton's crappy seasons but Niekro still has the edge in PRAR. Also, Carlton had some crappy seasons.
3) Jackson, Reggie - around the HoM median player
4) Grich, Bobby
5) Johnson, Bob
6) Tiant, Luis
7) Cash, Norm
8) Trouppe, Quincy
9) Beckley, Jake
10) Staub, Rusty
11) Smith, Reggie
12) Perez, Tony
13) Bridges, Tommy
14) Trucks, Virgil
15) Cravath, Gavy
16) Wynn, Jim
17) Cey, Ron - looks a lot like Boyer
18) Cepeda, Orlando
19) Roush, Edd
20) Clarkson, Bus
21-25) Keller, Charlie; Leonard, Dutch; Elliott, Bob; Quinn, Jack; Easter, Luke
26-30) Redding, Dick; Willis, Vic; Bancroft, Dave; Shocker, Urban; Koosman, Jerry
31-35) Howard, Frank; Bonds, Bobby; Smith, Hilton; Oms, Alejandro; Evers, Johnny
   67. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 20, 2006 at 06:23 AM (#2265550)
I just ran Niekro through, and man does he come up looking great. I've got him clearly ahead of Perry, ranked #9 all-time right now. I still have to run Carlton, who will be next, but Niekro was great. Think anyone in 1993 realize they were looking at one of the 9-15 or so (giving myself room for error) greatest pitchers ever? I don't - he was very underrated.

As for the unearned runs, they do matter, but he pitched behind some terrible defenses, and it basically offsets the unearned runs. I get his career DRA+ at 114, his ERA+ is 115. He's 3rd all-time in translated innings (behind only Young and Johnson).

Also, it was mentioned that his 40+ years weren't too pretty, I'd disagree. Starting in 1979, I get this:

Year RSAR WAR  PA   DRA  tIP
1979  70  7.3 .105 3.76 354.7
1980  38  4.0 .052 4.28 301.7
1981  34  3.5 .045 3.99 223.7
1982  40  4.2 .055 3.95 236.7
1983  16  1.6 .020 4.72 210.0
1984  41  4.3 .056 3.82 221.0
1985  16  1.7 .020 4.83 223.7
1986   5   .5 .006 5.29 227.0
1987   0   .0 .000 5.64 138.7 


Remember, 4.50 is equivalent to a 100 ERA+, 4.29 = 105 ERA+. ERA+ underrates those years.

His peak is enormous - there's a ton of innings, and a very good rate. He was probably the best pitcher in the NL from 1974-79 and no one realized it. I mean in 1978 he turned in a 3.20 DRA (=141 ERA+) with 339 translated innings (280 will typically lead the league). That's just sick. I mean he's a career value guy, but few than 20 guys had a better '5th best season' - which means his peak is way up there too.

OK still have Carlton, Sutton, Guidry and Phil's brother Joe to do . . .
   68. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 20, 2006 at 06:28 AM (#2265555)
BTW, Niekro's value after 40 (1979-87) is equivalent to the entire career of Denny McLain, Larry Jansen, Jeff Tesreau, Dennis Leonard - guys like that. Just wild.

But the even funnier thing is that by the end of the 1978 season, he was clearly a HoMer (Pennants Added = to Hal Newhouser or Eppa Rixey) if he never threw another pitch, despite only having 197 wins at that point - that's how good he was. He would have been a borderline candidate (in the Bridges/Pierce area) if he quit after 1977, before his best year.
   69. OCF Posted: December 20, 2006 at 06:31 AM (#2265558)
That's just sick. I mean [Niekro is] a career value guy, but few than 20 guys had a better '5th best season' - which means his peak is way up there too.

When you do run Carlton, you'll get that the one thing Niekro doesn't have is a Carlton 1972. That may be the difference right there. As I said above in #37, ...
   70. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 20, 2006 at 06:46 AM (#2265562)
Well IMO Niekro > Perry and it isn't very close. Niekro has him on peak and career.

Comparing Gibson to Niekro, 5 best seasons:

Gibson 11.1, 8.3, 8.3, 7.7, 6.9
Niekro 9.2, 7.9, 7.3, 7.2, 6.5

Gibson has the edge, but it's not enormous, he's ahead on those 5 years by 4.2 or so WAR 42.3-38.1 (and most of that edge is from Gibson's superior hitting, not pitching).

But over the rest of their careers, Niekro beats him quite handily, 58.3-44.3. IMO that's more than enough to say Niekro > Gibson, despite Gibson's peak edge.

Carlton will be in shortly . . .
   71. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 20, 2006 at 08:36 AM (#2265588)
And the winner is . . . Steve Carlton. He beats Niekro, 1.391 to 1.344, and they are currently 9-10 on the all-time rankings (through 1993 eligibles).

Carlton's 1972 really was as huge as they say. I've got it as the best non-Walter Johnson season of all-time among the eligibles. And that's enough to put him past Niekro - the difference between that season and Niekro's 1978 is basically what separates them in the final tally.

Carlton's last 3 years were a complete disaster, dropped his career DRA+ from 117 to 113, which considering he threw 5200 innings is saying something - his career DRA went from 3.84 to 3.99 during those 327.3 innings . . .

Finally, as pitchers I actually have Niekro ever so slightly ahead, 1.356-1.341. Carlton moves ahead because he was +29 runs as a hitter, and Knucksie was -9. As an example, that's enough to offset Niekro's entire 1968 season.

So using OCF's chart from post #37, I get:

Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Gibson > Perry > Jenkins > Palmer.

Still waiting on Sutton and Blyleven.
   72. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 20, 2006 at 08:52 AM (#2265594)
Some other interesting Carlton facts some you already knew, some maybe you didn't . . .

I get his 3-year peak at 1980-82, but it's cleverly disguised by the strike. Pretty wild to throw the greatest non-Walter Johnson season ever, then have your 3-year peak 8-10 years later. He was that good. That 1980 season was pretty incredible. I believe he was the last pitcher to throw 300 innings that year, and he did it will throwing at a 159 DRA+ and he topped it off throwing 27.3 post-season innings where he gave up just 7 ER and won a World Series. That's a season.

1981-83 was his second best 3-year run, followed by 1972-74 and 1970-72.

There really were some clunkers in the middle, he was below average in 1973 and 1975, nothing special in 1970-71, 1978-79.

He had as many big seasons as anyone, they were just spread out a little more than usual - he does much better on "any 5-seasons" peak (9th all-time) than 3-consecutive (tied for 20th).
   73. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 20, 2006 at 09:42 AM (#2265597)
I can add Sutton to that list now . . .

Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Gibson > Perry > Sutton > Jenkins > Palmer.

His case is all career value, but there's a ton of it.

His peak isn't that bad, there are some really good 'rate' years, like 1972 (his best year) and 1980. He didn't throw a ton of innings in 1980, but we was a great pitcher when he was out there. Sutton's peak would be the lowest of anyone we've elected, but it's only a hair below Whitey Ford's (and Sutton edges him on best 3-consecutive).

So his best year is 6.8 WAR, and he was effective for 22 years, really no bad seasons in there (1978-79 were his worst years, and even those were 1.9 and 2.2 WAR). I mean, except for the strike in 1981, he threw 200+ innings every year for 21 years (191.7 in the 22nd year), and was pretty good most of the time. He was top 5 in the NL Cy Young race 5 consecutive years (1972-76). When you add it all up it's a Hall of Merit career to me.
   74. DL from MN Posted: December 20, 2006 at 03:25 PM (#2265647)
Tiant?
   75. TomH Posted: December 20, 2006 at 05:13 PM (#2265743)
me & computers won't be hanging out together for most of a week, so here is a prelim of 93, in case someone wishes to comment:


Pete Rose (if not elected in 92)
1- Reggie Jackson
Overrated post-season heroics, and obnoxious. But a great, great ballplayer. Put him in the modern game and he would have hit over 700 home runs.
2- Steve Carlton
The poster boy for athletes not knowing when they are “done”.
3- Bobby Grich
4- Phil Niekro
Those knuckleball-induced unearned runs lower him a bit. Two of his three top-3 finishes in ERA+ look much much poorer when using RA+. And his ERA title in 67 came while only pitching less than 70% of the league leader's innings. OTOH, quite a horse, and toiled in front of mediocre defenses.

5th thru 12th Jake Beckley John McGraw Bucky Walters Bob Johnson
Frank Chance Dick Redding George Van Haltren Charlie Keller

13- Louis Tiant
Four postseason starts. Averaged 8.5 innings, 2.6 ERA, team won all 4 games. Take that, Bob Gibson.
14- Jimmy Wynn
15- Burleigh Grimes

Ron Cey; sweet prime! A perfect 'arc' of a career, but Dodger stadium supressed his ##s. About even with Bando and Elliot and Traynor and Leach in the very crowded Hall of Almost Good Enough Third Basemen.
   76. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 20, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2265753)
And his ERA title in 67 came while only pitching less than 70% of the league leader's innings.

I still have him as the best pitcher that year despite that, Tom.
   77. DL from MN Posted: December 20, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2265767)
> 2- Steve Carlton
> The poster boy for athletes not knowing when they are “done”.

Salary 1985-1988: $2.25M - from Baseball Reference.
   78. DavidFoss Posted: December 20, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#2265779)
Did Carlton get a World Series ring for 1987 or is it just guys who were on the postseason roster?
   79. DavidFoss Posted: December 20, 2006 at 06:07 PM (#2265794)
From wikipedia:

He was traded to the Minnesota Twins, where he was yet again ineffective. However the Twins would go on to a surprising win in the 1987 World Series, albeit without Carlton on the post-season roster, to earn him a second World Series ring and a trip to the White House to meet President Reagan along with his teammates. Interestingly, when Carlton was photographed with his teammates at the White House, newspapers listed each member of the team with the notable exception of Carlton. Instead, Carlton was listed as an "unidentified Secret Service agent." The Twins brought him back in 1988 but he lasted only a month before the Twins released him.


They don't have a citation/source for that anecdote. Its a great anecdote, though. :-)

That's reason enough not to quit right there. Anyhow, he wasn't half bad in 1985 before he got hurt (unlucky though). Seems like he thought he could get better in 1986 but to no avail and the Phillies dumped him. Four more teams between July 86 and April 88 is where the hanging-on-too-long reputation comes from, but I suppose he did another ring out of it.
   80. DanG Posted: December 20, 2006 at 06:50 PM (#2265823)
to earn him a second World Series ring

That should probably say third.
   81. DL from MN Posted: December 20, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#2265830)
He's a great trivia question when you ask someone to name all the HoF players on the 1987 Twins.
   82. DavidFoss Posted: December 20, 2006 at 07:37 PM (#2265859)
That should probably say third.

It does now.
   83. DL from MN Posted: December 20, 2006 at 08:02 PM (#2265881)
If Grich doesn't make it in 1993 he's going to top my ballot in 1994.
   84. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 20, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2265889)
Tom, I use RA+ and Niekro comes out just fine - his defenses were basically bad enough to offset the UR thing.
   85. TomH Posted: December 20, 2006 at 09:31 PM (#2265932)
Hmmm.... I must be missin sumthin.

NL win shares pitching leaders for 1967, their WS, and then their WARP3 next to that. I did not look for other pitchers who may have had more WARP than Knucksie. Yes, I know replacement level is low for WS and WARP, but reliever Ted Abernathy comes out OK, and it DOES include defense adjustment. And I'm not sure if WARP counts much of the UNearned runs against Phil or not?

Bunning.. 25 9.5
Abernathy24 7.3
Seaver... 21 8.0
Niekro... 21 7.1
Jenkins... 21 8.0
GPerry... 20 8.1
Nolan..... 19 7.2
   86. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 21, 2006 at 02:24 AM (#2266119)
I've got every one of those guys rated Tom, here's how I score it, tossing in anyone that got an MVP or Cy Young vote:

Pitcher   WAR  DRA+  tIP
Bunning   7.1  135  286.3
Nolan     5.9  145  216.7
Jenkins   5.7  121  274.0
Abernathy 5.5  208  146.0
Seaver    5.4  126  241.0
Perry
,G   5.3  117  281.3
Niekro
,P  4.9  134  201.0
McCormick 4.4  115  251.3
Briles    4.4  138  166.3
Hughes    4.1  121  206.3
Gibson    3.3  118  166.0 


Of course, 18 of the 20 voters picked McCormick for the Cy Young. Only one of the 20 picked Bunning.
   87. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 21, 2006 at 02:31 AM (#2266123)
Niekro's rate was just fine, even with the unearned runs, he only ranked 7th because he pitched many fewer innings than the others. When on the mound he was as good as anyone in the NL that year, except for Nolan.
   88. OCF Posted: December 21, 2006 at 02:44 AM (#2266126)
I have some of those guys in the RA+ system. Here's how that comes out (the third number is single-season equivalent FWP):

Bunning 21-12 [23]
Jenkins 19-13 [18]
Seaver 17-11 [16]
Perry 20-13 [19]
Niekro 15-8 [16]
Gibson 11-8 [9]

Kind of a down year for NL pitching stars. Of course, Koufax had just retired. That was the year Clemente broke GIbson's leg - and the Cardinals ran away with the pennant without Gibson (note listings above for Briles and Hughes - Hughes was a one-year wonder.) Bunning was much better in this system in 1966 (24-11 [29]).
   89. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 21, 2006 at 05:59 AM (#2266204)
Bunning was much better in 1966 in my system too, 8.9 WAR, 154 DRA+, 301 tIP. That is typically good enough to win a Cy Young Award. 13 of the 38 HoM pitchers never had that good of a season, even some highly regarded 'peaky' guys like Coveleski, Lemon, Jenkins and Palmer.
   90. TomH Posted: December 22, 2006 at 03:57 PM (#2267110)
For those wanting to read up on relievers over the holidays, I found this link

http://mikesrants.baseballtoaster.com/archives/402397.html

that has way much more in it than I am willing to digest right now. Whole series of articles on ranking bullpen men. Don't know what he does and doesn't account for, but maybe it will add another tool to our box.
   91. OCF Posted: December 25, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#2268452)
OCF, post #37:

Seaver > Gibson > Perry > Carlton > Niekro > Palmer > Jenkins

Joe Dimino, post #71:

Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Gibson > Perry > Jenkins > Palmer

What I found under the Christmas tree: someone gave me that 2007 Hardball Times annual. There's an article there by David Gassko on the most valuable pitchers of all time. He ranks by career WAR, which makes it something of a career point of view, and he adjusts for both defensive support and level of competition, which makes him explicitly a timeliner. For greatest pitching season, 20th centurey, he has Carlton 1972 as the #1 year, ahead of Johnson 1913, with GIbson 1968 and Gooden 1985 down at #7 and #8. (And the greatest 19th century year: Pud Galvin, 1884, ahead of Radbourne that year - the defensive support adjustment speaks there.)

But back to the question at hand: what does Gassko say about the two posts I just quoted?

Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Perry > Jenkins > Gibson > Palmer

But Palmer is ranked as #24 of all time - these guys are all way up there on the list. Fleshing it out further:

Seaver > Blyleven > Carlton > Niekro > Perry > Jenkins > Gibson > Ryan > Sutton > Palmer > Reuschel > John

> Tiant > Bunning > Tanana > Kaat > Koosman > Drysdale > Ford > Marichal > Pierce > Lolich > Larry Jackson

> Koufax > Steve Rogers > Pappas > Wood > Blue > Hough > Candelaria > Jim Perry

Rick Reuschel? We'll have to pay attention when he comes up.
   92. jingoist Posted: December 26, 2006 at 09:22 PM (#2268914)
I posted this mesage over at the 92 ballot where it should not have appeared.
I am reposting as I believe it's an issue for discussion.

Peak, prime, career....all valid qualifiers for candidates but a few questions arise as I review voters recent ballots.
If a voter likes Indian Bob Johnson, as many folks do, why no love for Chuck Klein?

Chuck had a five year run from 1929 thru 1933 that was pretty sensational; .359 BA;
.413 OBP; .635 Slg %; 160 OPS+; averaged 46 doubles and 36 HRs.
Granted he began to fall back toward the rest of the league at age 30 but he was still a 121 OPS+ hitter for the next 6 years.
That's an 11 year prime where he hit 280+ HRs and had an OPS+ of 129.
Not Babe Ruth, but certainly Bob Johnson.
Bob and Chuck are within 1% point of one another for career OPS+; 137 vs 138
Plus Chuck was MVP in 1932 and runner-up in '31 and '33.
I'd think peak/prime voters would be all over both Bob & Chuck.

So voters, take another look at Chuck.
   93. sunnyday2 Posted: December 26, 2006 at 10:03 PM (#2268928)
As more of a peak voter, I have Klein #24 and Johnson #57. The guy I think is a dead ringer for Bob Johnson, though more than half of it is an MLE record, is Bobby Estalella. I have him at #33, which is undoubtedly too big of a gap between Johnson and Estalella. They are veeeeerrrryyyy comparable players in my estimation, though Estalella played a bunch of CF.
   94. Howie Menckel Posted: December 27, 2006 at 02:39 AM (#2269052)
chart d'jour is HOM SP electees, 1950-74 (must have pitched 154/162 IP or equivalent, or 35 G - basically it's 'regulars'):
1950 (7) - Feller Newhouser Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce
1951 (6) - Feller Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce
1952 (9) - Paige Feller Newhouser Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm
1953 (8) - Paige Feller Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1954 (7) - Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1955 (7) - Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1956 (7) - Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1957 (7) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning
1958 (9) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax
1959 (9) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax
1960 (9) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax
1961 (9) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1962 (11) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1963 (10) - Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1964 (10) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry
1965 (10) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry
1966 (9) - Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer
1967 (8) - Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Seaver
1968 (7) - Wilhelm Drysdale Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Seaver
1969 (8) - Wilhelm Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1970 (8) - Wilhelm Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1971 (6) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1972 (6) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1973 (6) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1974 (5) - Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
   95. Howie Menckel Posted: December 27, 2006 at 02:40 AM (#2269053)
what the heck, OFs too (must play in at least half his team's games):

1950 (9) - DiMaggio, Slaughter, TWilliams, Musial OF-1B, Doby, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso
1951 (12) - DiMaggio, Slaughter, TWilliams, Musial OF-1B, Irvin OF-1B, Doby, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso OF-3B, Mantle, Mays
1952 (8) - Slaughter, Musial OF(1B), Doby, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle
1953 (10) - Slaughter, Irvin, Musial, Doby, JRobinson OF-3B, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle
1954 (12) - TWilliams, Irvin, Musial, Doby, JRobinson OF-3B, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline
1955 (12) - Slaughter, TWilliams, Doby, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Kaline, Clemente
1956 (12) - Slaughter, TWilliams, Irvin, Doby, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson
1957 (13) - Slaughter, TWilliams, Doby, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, Boyer OF-3B, FRobinson
1958 (11) - TWilliams, Doby, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson
1959 (9) - TWilliams, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente
1960 (10) - TWilliams, Musial OF-1B, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente
1961 (11) - Musial, Minoso, Mantle, Berra, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski
1962 (11) - Musial, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, McCovey, Killebrew, Yastrzemski
1963 (13) - Musial, Snider, Minoso, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, McCovey, Killebrew, Yastrzemski, Stargell OF(1B)
1964 (11) - Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, McCovey OF(1B), Killebrew, Yastrzemski, Stargell OF-1B
1965 (9) - Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell
1966 (9) - Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell
1967 (8) - Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell OF-1B
1968 (9) - Mays, Aaron, Kaline OF(1B), Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell, Allen
1969 (8) - Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski OF(1B), Stargell OF(1B)
1970 (7) - Mays, Aaron, Kaline OF-1B, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Stargell
1971 (7) - Mays OF-1B, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson OF-1B, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell
1972 (5) - Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastremski OF-1B
1973 (4) - Aaron, Kaline OF-1B, BiWilliams, Stargell
1974 (2) - Aaron, Stargell
   96. Howie Menckel Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:25 AM (#2269078)
Also, Grich's 1972 at SS (actually SS-2B) is the first HOMer season at SS since Banks in 1961.

1962 is the only 'blank' catching year since 1920 (technically Berra appeared in 86 G, but only 59 in the field and only 31 as C. Torre appeared in 80 G, with 63 as C).
Only 1B 'blanks' in that span are 1952-54 (Mize is done and Musial playing the OF).
With the Rose deferral, 2B still blank from 1953-64 (only time since 1920).
3B blanks are 1947 and 1949-51 (between Hack and Mathews), plus 1976-81.
   97. OCF Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:29 AM (#2269081)
3B blanks are ... plus 1976-81.

THAT particular blank will get filled quite convincingly - just who was the best player in baseball, at any position, over that period?
   98. Chris Fluit Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:43 AM (#2269088)
Would you be referring to Schmidt? Or maybe Brett? Naw, probably Buddy Bell.
   99. OCF Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:52 AM (#2269091)
I was thinking of Schmidt, although "best player in baseball" would take some arguing. Michael Jack may have lost as much to the 1981 strike as anyone. Of course, long before we get there: Rose would cover 1976-78.
   100. Howie Menckel Posted: December 27, 2006 at 04:16 AM (#2269101)
lol on Schmidt.
yeah, some of the holes will get filled alright.

I think it's intriguing how few 'blanks' there are, without much effort on that front. Some non-Foxers do feel as if he's benefiting from a 'void vote,' but that's one of the only such sentiments, I think.
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