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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, January 22, 2007

1993 Results: The Mighty Triumvirate of Rose, Carlton and Jackson Are the Newest Hall of Meriters!

In his second year of eligibility, hit king Pete Rose narrowly nabbed the top spot for HoM induction with a very strong 92% of all possible points, 28 points higher than his heavily boycotted innaugural candidacy.

In his first year of eligibility, legendary southpaw hurler Steve Carlton was the second man elected with also a healthy 92% of all possible points.

Last but not least, prolific home run hitter Reggie Jackson won the third spot for induction this “year” with an impressive 90% of all possible points.

Famed knuckleballer Phil Niekro earned 82% of all possible points (the greatest percentage of any fourth-place finisher) and appears to be the #1 candidate for induction in ‘94.

Rounding out the top-ten were: Quincey Trouppe, Nellie Fox, Jimmy Wynn, Edd Roush, Charlie Keller,  and Rollie Fingers.

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1    3  Pete Rose               1152   52  31  5  6  9                          1      
 2  n/e  Steve Carlton           1147   52   8 17 21  6                                 
 3  n/e  Reggie Jackson          1120   52  12 17 10 13                                 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 4  n/e  Phil Niekro             1026   52   1 12 15 20  2        1     1               
 5    8  Quincy Trouppe           272   24               4  2  3  1  1  2  3  2  2  1  3
 6    5  Nellie Fox               270   22            1  2  2  4  2  3  2  3     1  1  1
 7    6  Jimmy Wynn               265   25               1  2  4     2  4  3  3     2  4
 8    9  Edd Roush                262   22            1  1  4  4  1  1  4     1  1  3  1
 9    7  Charlie Keller           261   21            1  3  4  2  3     2  1  1  2     2
10   10  Rollie Fingers           234   20            1  3  1  4  3     1  1        2  4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   12  Cannonball Dick Redding  228   20               3     2  3  3  3     2     2  2
12    4  Pete Browning            223   19               4  4  1        2     2  4  1  1
13   11  Jake Beckley             213   17      1        3  2  1     4  1  1     2  1  1
14   16  Bob Johnson              203   18               2     4  2  1     1  6     1  1
15   14  Bucky Walters            186   16               1  1  3  2  2  1  1  2  3      
16   15  Tony Perez               179   14               3  3     1  3  1  1     2      
17   17  Hugh Duffy               172   14               1  3  2     4  1  1     1     1
18   13  Charley Jones            168   13               4  2  1  2     1  1        1  1
19   18  Gavvy Cravath            157   16               1  1  3        2        2  4  3
20   19  Alejandro Oms            143   15                  1  1     3  1  1     3  3  2
21T  23  Roger Bresnahan          128   11               2  1     1  1  1  2  1  2      
21T  22  George Van Haltren       128   11                  3     3     1  2        1  1
23   21  Tommy Leach              125   12                     2  2     1  2  2  1  2   
24   20  Burleigh Grimes          120   10               2     1  2     1  3        1   
25   24  Rusty Staub              114   10                  1     2  2  2  1  1  1      
26   26  Luis Tiant               101   11                  1  1  1              5  1  2
27   25  Orlando Cepeda            97    9                  1     1  2  1  2     1     1
28   31  Norm Cash                 92    9                  1  1     2        1  2  2   
29   32  Lou Brock                 91    9               2        1        2        2  2
30   33T Ken Singleton             85    9                  1     1     1  1     2  2  1
31   28  Dizzy Dean                85    8               2     1           1  1     2  1
32   29  Bobby Bonds               79    7                        3     1  2  1         
33   30  Larry Doyle               77    6               2  1        2                 1
34   37  Tommy Bridges             75    7                        1  2  1     3         
35   33T Bob Elliott               67    7                  1           1  1     3  1   
36   40  John McGraw               66    5                  3        1        1         
37   27  Mickey Welch              64    6                     2     1     1     1     1
38   39  Elston Howard             61    7                              1  2  1  1  1  1
39   42  Phil Rizzuto              60    5               1     1  1        1        1   
40   50  Sal Bando                 56    6                     1              4        1
41T  46  Carl Mays                 56    5                        1  1  2     1         
41T  35  Vic Willis                56    5                     1  1  1     1        1   
43   41  Ben Taylor                53    5                  1     1           2     1   
44   43  Vern Stephens             52    6                           1  1     1  1     2
45   49  Wally Schang              45    4               1              1  1     1      
46   38  Reggie Smith              42    4                           1  1  1  1         
47   47T Thurman Munson            40    5                        1           1        3
48T  36  Pie Traynor               39    4                        1     1     1        1
48T  51  Ed Williamson             39    4                     1           1     1  1   
50   45  Addie Joss                37    3               1           1        1         
51  n/e  Ron Cey                   33    4                                 1  1     2   
52   47T Bill Monroe               33    3                  1                 2         
53   56T Jimmy Ryan                30    3                        1        1        1   
54   54  Ed Cicotte                28    2                  1     1                     
55   61T Jim Kaat                  27    2                     1  1                     
56   53  Dave Bancroft             26    3                           1           1     1
57   61T Fred Dunlap               26    2               1                 1            
58   52  Frank Howard              24    3                                    1  1  1   
59T  58T Frank Chance              23    2                           1  1               
59T  63  Tony Oliva                23    2                  1                    1      
61   44  Chuck Klein               22    2                  1                       1   
62T  64  Lefty Gomez               21    2                        1              1      
62T  67T Urban Shocker             21    2                        1              1      
62T  67T Dizzy Trout               21    2                           1        1         
65   65T Ernie Lombardi            20    2                              1     1         
66T  65T Luis Aparicio             19    2                           1              1   
66T  56T Al Rosen                  19    2                                 1  1         
66T  60  Gene Tenace               19    2                        1                    1
69   55  Rabbit Maranville         18    2                              1           1   
70   71  Don Newcombe              16    2                                    1     1   
71   72  Jack Quinn                15    1                  1                           
72   58T Sam Rice                  14    2                                       1     1
73   78T Wilbur Cooper             13    1                        1                     
74T  69T George J. Burns           12    2                                             2
74T  76T Bus Clarkson              12    2                                             2
76T  73T Fielder Jones             12    1                           1                  
76T  73T Sam Leever                12    1                           1                  
76T  78T Tony Mullane              12    1                           1                  
79T  73T Artie Wilson              11    1                              1               
79T  78T Tony Lazzeri              11    1                              1               
81T  85T Tommy Bond                10    1                                 1            
81T  82T Dutch Leonard             10    1                                 1            
81T  81  Cecil Travis              10    1                                 1            
84  n/e  Steve Garvey               9    1                                    1         
85T  84  Kiki Cuyler                7    1                                          1   
85T  69T Bobby Veach                7    1                                          1   
85T  87T Mickey Vernon              7    1                                          1   
Dropped Out: George Foster(92), Jim Fregosi(91), Hack Wilson(82T), George Kell(87T), 
Herman Long(85T), Bill Mazeroski(87T), Al Oliver(76T), Virgil Trucks(87T).
Ballots Cast: 52

 

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 22, 2007 at 10:10 PM | 39 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 23, 2007 at 02:03 AM (#2284875)
Congratulations to Pete, Steve and Reggie!

Browning took a big nosedive.

HOF-not-HOM through 1993
 
1  Aparicio
Luis
2. Bancroft
Dave
3. Beckley
Jake
4  Bender
Chief
5  Bottomley
Jim
6  Bresnahan
Roger
7  Brock
Lou
8  Chance
Frank
9  Chesbro
Jack
10 Combs
Earle
11 Cuyler
Kiki
12 Dandridge
Ray
13 Dean
Dizzy
14 Duffy
Hugh
15 Evers
Johnny
16 Ferrell
Rick
17 Fingers
Rollie
18 Gomez
Lefty
19 Grimes
Burleigh
20 Hafey
Chick
21 Haines
Jesse
22 Hooper
Harry
23 Hoyt
Waite
24 Hunter
Catfish
25 Jackson
Travis
26 Johnson
Judy
27 Joss
Addie
28 Kell
George
29 Kelly
George
30 Klein
Chuck
31 Lazzeri
Tony
32 Lindstrom
Freddie
33 Lombardi
Ernie
34 Manush
Heinie
35 Maranville
Rabbit
36 Marquard
Rube
37 McCarthy
Tommy
38 McGraw
John 
39 Pennock
Herb
40 Rice
Sam
41 Roush
Edd
42 Schalk
Ray
43 Schoendienst
Red
44 Tinker
Joe
45 Traynor
Pie
46 Waner
Lloyd
47 Welch
Mickey
48 Wilson
Hack
49 Youngs
Ross
 
HOM
-not-HOF
 
1   Allen
Dick 
2   Ashburn
Richie
3   Barnes
Ross
4   Beckwith
John
5   Bennett
Charlie
6   Boyer
Ken
7   Brown
Ray
8   Brown
Willard
9   Bunning
Jim
10 Carlton
Steve**
11 CaruthersBob
12 Childs
Cupid
13 Dahlen
Bill
14 Davis
George
15 Doby
Larry
16 Ferrell
Wes
17 Foster
Willie 
18 Freehan
Bill
19 Glasscock
Jack
20 Gordon
Joe
21 Gore
George
22 Grant
Frank
23 Grich
Bobby
24 Groh
Heinie
25 Hack
Stan
26 Hill
Pete
27 Hines
Paul
28 Jackson
Joe*
29 JohnsonHome Run
30 Mackey
Biz
31 Magee
Sherry
32 McPhee
Bid
33 McVey
Cal
34 Méndez
José
35 Minoso
Minnie
36 Moore
Dobie
37 Pearce
Dickey
38 Pierce
Billy
39 Pike
Lip
40 Richardson
Hardy
41 Rogan
Bullet Joe
42 Rose
Pete*
43 SantoRon
44 Santop
Louis
45 Sheckard
Jimmy
46 Start
Joe
47 Stearnes
Turkey
48 Stovey
Harry
49 Suttles
Mule
50 Sutton
Ezra
51 Torre
Joe
52 Torriente
Cristobal
53 Wells
Willie
54 White
Deacon
55 Williams
Smokey Joe
56 Wilson
Jud
 
*  not eligible for the HOF
**not eligible until 1994 
   2. KJOK Posted: January 23, 2007 at 02:08 AM (#2284881)
Cey finishes not only behind Bando, but behind Traynor and Williamson. Interesting.
   3. sunnyday2 Posted: January 23, 2007 at 02:19 AM (#2284883)
It would never have occurred to me to put Reggie behind Lefty. And my tabulations were definitely off--I thought Lefty had beaten Pete for the top spot. Oh well. We got the right 3 guys.

The gap from 4 to 5 must be an all-time record gap within the backlog.
   4. OCF Posted: January 23, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2284885)
Missing from last year: yest (we know why), 'zop, mulder&scully;. Returned from long absences: Carl G, James Newburg. Avergage consensus score 11.4, which is high. Highest possible consensus score 20.

Carl Goetz: 18
Howie Menckel: 17
James Newburg16
Mark Shirk: 16
Andrew M: 15 (he did vote for Niekro, after all)
Chris Cobb: 15
Rusty Priske: 14
andrew siegel: 14
Mike Webber: 14
Devin McCullen: 14
Esteban Rivera: 14
...
John Murphy: 13
...
Jim Sp: 11
Jeff M: 11 (medians
...
OCF: 10
...
Adam Schafer: 8
EricC: 8
Joe Dimino: 8
Michael Bass: 8
Mark Donelson: 8
KJOK: 7
rico vanian: 7
jimd: 7
karlmagnus: -3

(With yest not around karlmagnus gets to be out there all by himself. Note also the "dropped out" status of Hack Wilson and George Kell - they'll be back.)
   5. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 23, 2007 at 02:31 AM (#2284890)
Wow, Browning fell back, but my man Quincy shot up the rankings. Go QT!
   6. Howie Menckel Posted: January 23, 2007 at 02:33 AM (#2284892)
all-time 'votes points' thru 1993 - those still eligible in 1994 election are in CAPS. electees not in caps.

TOP 25, ALL-TIME
BECKLEY.... 24318
VAN HALTREN 24007.5
DUFFY...... 23442.5
BROWNING... 20870.5
Childs..... 18484
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976
WELCH...... 16320
Sisler..... 13892

REDDING.... 13630
Pike....... 13399
CJONES..... 13245
Sewell..... 12769
Mendez..... 12555
Thompson... 12349
BRESNAHAN.. 12223
TLEACH..... 12216
RYAN....... 12151.5
Bennett.... 11503

Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
ROUSH...... 10598
Beckwith.... 9896

OTHERS IN THE TOP 25 ACTIVE
(Cravath 8139, Doyle 7942, Walters 7305, Grimes 7250, Monroe 6707, Trouppe 6635, Fox 6140, Schang 5744, Williamson 5612, Oms 5537, McGraw 5426, BJohnson 5299, Keller 5241, Willis 3960)

not quite
Joss 3845, Wynn 3455, Dean 3414, Elliott 3382

not quite
(Joss 3808, Elliott 3325, Dean 3329, Wynn 3190)
   7. sunnyday2 Posted: January 23, 2007 at 02:54 AM (#2284903)
"Gloves" in the Top 50

Catcher
5. Trouppe
21. Bresnahan
38. Howard
45. Schang
47. Munson

I can't prove that Trouppe is too high, just as his supporters can't prove that he's not. I like Howard and Munson myself, but other than the speculative nature of Trouppe's record and Schang's lack of peak, they're all pretty interchangeable.

Second Base
6. Fox
33. Doyle

Is that all there is? Is that all there is? A glove and a bat, a bat and a glove. Obviously we prefer the glove. I like them both about equally.

Shortstop
39. Rizzuto
44. Stephens

Is that all there...never mind. I guess we've elected everybody. Again, a glove and a bat, and a slight preference for the glove. I'm OK with that, Rizzuto is #15-20 just off my ballot these days.

Third Base
23. Leach--half CF
35. Elliott
36. McGraw
40. Bando
48T. Traynor and Williamson

And Cey just off at 51. Nice group, obviously we haven't elected enough 3Bs for the pool to remain this good. But we're all over the board. I personally like Williamson as the best combo of glove and bat. I don't give a rip how long he played in total, his prime was just as long as everybody else's.

Hard to believe that at these 4 positions Trouppe and Fox are the only guys who are really in the running. Given our shortage of 3Bs, one of them ought to be top 10 as well. Of course, if anybody decides to change their ballot because of the assertion, they're still not going to go to Williamson. Leach would not be the worst HoMer, not would any of these guys. Does Graig Nettles really slot in at the head of this group? I dunno. Maybe.
   8. OCF Posted: January 23, 2007 at 03:00 AM (#2284907)
Best friends (because someone asked for it). The number in parenthesis is the highest vote the candidate got; the names are who put the player that high.

Rose (1): a majority
Carlton (1): OCF, rawagman, Howie Menckel, DanG, jhwinfrey, Esteban Rivera, jimd, Jeff M
Jackson (1): a dozen
Niekro (1): Got Melky
Trouppe (5): Eric Chalek, Juan V, Carl G, Chris Cobb
Fox (4): rico vanian
Wynn (5): Devin McCullen
Roush (4): sunnyday2
Keller (4): dan b
Fingers (4): Adam Schafer
Redding (5): ronw, Al Peterson, Ken Fischer,
Browning (5): Sean Gilman, Estaban Rivera, Max Parkinson
Beckley (2): karlmagnus (but you knew that already)
Johnson (5): DL from MN, Jim Sp
Walters (5): jimd
Perez (5): AJM, Thane of Bagarth, DanG
Duffy (5): rawagman
C. Jones (5): Rick A, Jeff M, favre
Cravath (5): Joe Dimino
Oms (6): Juan V
Van Haltren (6): DanG, Rob Wood, Ken Fischer
Bresnahan (5): John Murphy
Leach (7): Al Peterson, Sean Gilman
Grimes (5): jhwinfrey, SWW
Staub (6): Thane of Bagarth
Tiant (6): DL from MN
Cepeda (6): jhwinfrey
Cash (6): Al Peterson
Brock (5): Daryn
Dean (5): Mark Donelson, dan b
Singleton (6): Brent
Bonds (8): Brent, Al Peterson
Doyle (5): OCF, David Foss
Bridges (8): andrew siegel
Elliott (6): Michael Bass
McGraw (6): David Foss, TomH
Welch (7): Daryn, Ken Fischer
E. Howard (10): Mark Donelson
Rizzuto (5): Brent
Willis (7): Rick A
Mays (8): Ken Fischer
Bando (7): ronw
Taylor (6): rawagman
Stephens (9): Ken Fischer
Schang (5): EricC
Smith (10): Al Peterson
Munson (8): Got Melky
Traynor (8): rico vanian
Williamson (7): Mark Donelson
Joss (5): karlmagnus
Monroe (6): Devin McCullen
Cey (11): Juan V
Ryan (8): Juan V
Cicotte (6): karlmagnus
Kaat (7): jimd
Bancroft (9): Chris Cobb
Dunlap (5): Michael Bass
F. Howard (12): Got Melky
Chance (9): TomH
Oliva (6): Tom D
Klein (6): rico vanian
Gomez (8): rawagman
Shocker (8): Joe Dimino
Trout (9): AJM
Lombardi (10): karlmagnus
Rosen (11): Mark Donelson
Tenace (8): KJOK
Aparicio (9): rico vanian
Maranville (10): Michael Bass
Newcombe (12): Chris Fluit
Quinn (6 and only): Joe Dimino
Rice (13): rico vanian
Wi. Cooper (8 and only): Eric Chalek
Burns (15): Andrew M, Max Parkinson
Leever (9 and only): karlmagnus
F. Jones (9 and only): jimd
Mullane (9 and only): Al Peterson
Clarkson (15): Chris Cobb, Devin McCullen
A. Wilson (10 and only): Jeff M [H. Wilson's friend was boycotting]
Lazzeri (10 and only): Juan V
Travis (11 and only): Adam Schafer
Leonard (11 and only): Patrick W
Bond (11 and only): sunnyday2
Garvey (12 and only): jhwinfrey
Veach (14 and only): rawagman
Cuyler (14 and only): Jeff M
Vernon (14 and only): EricC
   9. Juan V Posted: January 23, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2284910)
Do we really have a shortage of third basemen? At this stage (1993), it's just a matter of time before we elect Schmidt and Brett, while Boggs has already built a strong case for himself. Maybe one can add Molitor to the list. Furthermore, with 3B being the transitional position that it is, it wouldn't be surprising that we ended up with fewer career third sackers.
   10. jimd Posted: January 23, 2007 at 03:07 AM (#2284913)
Carl Goetz: 18
Howie Menckel: 17
...
jimd: 7
karlmagnus: -3


With yest taking a walk, I'm 2nd to karlmagnus.
OTOH, another way of looking at it is, I'm halfway between karlmagnus and Howie.

Interesting.
   11. karlmagnus Posted: January 23, 2007 at 03:36 AM (#2284922)
Actually, minus 3 is pretty wimpy. It'll be good when we lose these quasi-unanimous types. I forget what the theoretical maximum is, but I'm aiming to hit it by 2008!
   12. sunnyday2 Posted: January 23, 2007 at 04:18 AM (#2284933)
"Hitters" in the top 50

First Base
13. Beckley--who?
16. Perez--not exactly a no-brainer but I don't think this is terribly over-rating the guy
27. Cepeda
28. Cash
43. Ben Taylor

Perez, Cepeda and Cash are certainly interchangeable enough. We'll have to see whether Doggie can maintain this edge on Cepeda and Cash.

Left Field
9. Keller
14. Bob Johnson
18. Charley Jones
29. Brock

Frank Howard not too far back. Nice to know we're not complete slaves to convention.

Right Field
19. Cravath
25. Staub
30. Singleton
32. Bonds

Oliva and Klein next. Nice to know we're not complete slaves to convention.

So Keller, Beckley and Bob Johnson are the top backlog hitters? I guess we have elected everybody.
   13. sunnyday2 Posted: January 23, 2007 at 04:42 AM (#2284949)
Hybrids (Center Field and sometimes some 3B) in the top 50

7. J. Wynn
8. Roush
12. Browning
17. Duffy
20. Oms
21. Van Haltren
23. Leach
46. R. Smith

Ryan is close. I remember when we used to call it the CF glut. Well, the glut hasn't changed, but I guess we have. I'm Edd's best friend, he might go in pretty soon but it obviously depends on who forgets to vote in any given week.

Pitchers

4. P. Niekro--I don't know if he's a shoo-in, or a shoe-in? What do you think?
10. Fingers
11. Redding
15. Walters--glad to see we're not slaves to convention
24. Grimes
26. Tiant--Red Sox bias?
31. Dean--here I added him to my ballot and he fell from 28th to 31st, go figure
34. Bridges
37. Welch
41. Mays
42. Willis--under-rated
50. Joss--double under-rated

See-kaat and Kitty-kaat are close, Don Newcombe is not. I'm good with Niekro, Rollie and Cannonball. Hard to believe the next 3 guys, or maybe the next 8. Are we still short of pitchers?
   14. Howie Menckel Posted: January 23, 2007 at 03:07 PM (#2285086)
I had Rose only 4th but still came in 2nd overall. And other than being one of the many "Carlton 1st" voters, I was the best friend of none of the candidates. And that's why they call me "Mister Consensus." Congrats to Carl Goetz for outflanking me this 'year.'
   15. DanG Posted: January 23, 2007 at 03:48 PM (#2285112)
Famed knuckleballer Phil Niekro earned 82% of all possible points (the greatest percentage of any fourth-place finisher)

The 1993 election also tied for the least number of players getting 20% support, only nine. This happened once before, in 1989. The most players getting 20% was 19, in 1920 and 1938.

Trouppe, Fox, Wynn, Roush and Keller are in a dead heat in the race for the next backlog HoMer, perhaps as soon as 1995, definitely by 1996.
   16. TomH Posted: January 23, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2285141)
OCF, thanks for the best friend analysis.
What I actually HOPE someone can post is a "voter A is best friend of voter B" table. Who am I most like? Whose ballot is really far from mine? Which ones of us are mimicked by the most other voters? Do we have "circles" of voters, groups of 3 to 6 who are alike, sort of like the "Similarity Scores" on BB-ref?
   17. Paul Wendt Posted: January 23, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2285251)
If I count correctly, that is 39 different players ranked 1 or 2 in the backlog by at least one of the 52 voters.

Niekro is the only one listed on at least half the ballots. (surpassing the record by one, iirc)

There was a clear gap between Cravath and Oms, demarcating what I would happily have called the viable backlog, 16 players, Rose to Cravath. The gap closed a little, so it is no longer easy to by happy; call it 17 players, Niekro to Oms.

P G B : Pitcher, "Glove", "Bat" per Marc sunnyday; "Glove"={C, 3B, SS, 2B}
------
4 2 11; all viable
------
1 1 1 ; Negro Leagues & Latin America
3 1 10; MLB
------
0 0 4 ; mlb 19th century
0 0 2 ; mlb 1900s-20s
1 1 2 ; mlb 1930s-50s
2 0 2 ; mlb 1960s-date
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: January 23, 2007 at 08:52 PM (#2285258)
Actually I have (brand) new categories, even since yesterday.

Arms

Bats--1B, LF, RF, (DH)

Gloves--C, 2B, SS

Hybrids--It started with CF. It seemed unfair that they should have to hit like cornermen but they don't have the defensive value of SSs or Cs either. And then I added 3B (yesterday and today). It didn't seem fair that they should have to hit like a 1B but it also seemed unfair that a SS should have to hit like a 3B, while at the same time on defense 1B < 3B < SS. Now I suppose I should have Larry Doyle in this group and Ed Williamson among the gloves, maybe Traynor? That will have to await another iteration.
   19. Sean Gilman Posted: January 23, 2007 at 11:57 PM (#2285346)
Browning took a big nosedive.

He's jumped all over the top 15 foe the last few elections. I think it's just the nature of where his support lies. A lot of high-ballot and low-ballot support means his totals fluctuate wildly depending on how many new "no-brainer" candidates show up in a given year.

I expect the backlog rankings in general to be extremely volatile over the rest of the project.
   20. TomH Posted: January 24, 2007 at 03:08 PM (#2285574)
Hmmm.. slotting in my top 17, plus the two 94 newbies who would fall in that range, = 19
deadball (pre 1920) in italics, time in NgLg in bold

-C Simmons Bresnahan/Munson
SS -----------------
2B ------------ Monroe
3B McGraw -------- Elliot
1B Beckley Chance
OF ---- VanHltrn Wynn
OF - Johnson Keller
-P - Walters - Tiant/Sutton
-P Niekro Redding
-P ---------- Fingers/Grimes
   21. TomH Posted: January 24, 2007 at 03:18 PM (#2285577)
by Paul/sunnyday category

P G B : Pitcher "Glove"={C, 3B, SS, 2B} "Bat"
7 6 6 ; all
1 1 0 ; Negro Leagues & Latin America
6 5 6 ; MLB
------
0 1 1 ; mlb 19th century
0 1 2 ; mlb 1900s-20s
2 1 2 ; mlb 1930s-50s
4 2 1 ; mlb 1960s-date

self-analysis: I am far less bat-heavy than most. I do seem to have a lot of bats in my 20-30 range.
   22. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 24, 2007 at 04:29 PM (#2285635)
Wow, I missed by one vote being the best friend of Keller, Duffy, and Elston Howard and missed by two spots in being the best friend of Dick Redding. I guess I am a loner.
   23. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 24, 2007 at 04:50 PM (#2285645)
Bresnahan (5): John Murphy

People let me tell you 'bout my best friend,
He's a tough-as-nails backstop who dominated his era...

:-)

Thanks, OCF!
   24. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 25, 2007 at 05:03 PM (#2286211)
Quick thought about HOM-not-HOFs

I pulled the guys out of the list who the HOF will eventually elect through the 2007 BBWAA vote (how do I know they will elect them? Because I have "the gift") and also removed Jackson and Rose. Then I assigned the 33 leftover HOM-not-HOFers each a decade.

We have elected:
-1 1860s guy they won't elect
-7 1870s guys they won't elect
-6 1880s guys they won't elect
-3 1890s guys they won't elect
-2 1900s guys they won't elect
-1 1910s guy they won't elect
-2 1920s guys they won't elect
-2 1930s guys they won't elect
-1 1940s guy they won't elect
-2 1950s guys they won't elect
-5 1960s guys they won't elect
-1 1970s guy they won't elect.

The reason I was thinking about this question was because I wondered if the closer-to-today decades would have a much higher rate of HOM election than HOF election compared to other decades. I'm wondering this due to the sheer volume of potentially strong not-HOF candidates who will appear on the ballot soon who have gotten some talking here and there on our site:
-Simmons (1970s)
-Nettles (1970s)
-Jim Rice (1970s)
-Dw Evans (1970s)
-Rick Reuschel (1970s)
-Dave Concepcion (1970s)
-Blyleven (1970s)
-Gossage (1970s/1980s)
-Trammell (1980s)
-Whitaker (1980s)
-Lance Parrish (1980s)
-Dawson (1980s)
-Lee Smith (1980s)
-Stieb (1980s)
-Da Evans (1980s)
-Keith Hernandez (1980s)
-Willie Randolph (1980s)
-Dale Murphy (1980s)
-Jack Clark (1980s)

Gotta think some group of them is going in. It's possible that if enough of them go, that the 1960-1990 era will be a serious point of differentiation between HOM and HOF.
   25. Chris Cobb Posted: January 25, 2007 at 05:29 PM (#2286231)
I'd say 7-10 of that group is going in: I'd gues that the 5 HoM not HoF for the 1960s is going to be a pretty good predictor of the 1970s and 1980s as well.

Incidentally, you've done a great job, Eric, of identifying the borderline groups for the 1980s! What criteria did you use to pull together this list of players? Or did you just do it off the cuff? I'd add Buddy Bell, I think (who is almost a dead ringer for Graig Netltles), and Charlie Hough (not that he will appeal much to peak voters) into the mix, but this is an impressive list.
   26. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 25, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2286248)
The cuff, Chris, with a little help from my system. I think 7-10 is a great guess, and looking the guys over, it probably means they will almost split evenly between decades. 3/3 or 4/4. Based solely on the buzz on the site, I'd say:

-Simmons (1970s)
-Blyleven (1970s)
-Gossage (1970s/1980s)

and

-Trammell (1980s)
-Whitaker (1980s)
-Da Evans (1980s)

As for the rest, I don't have a strong sense about any one guy, and many of them could draw enough splinter support to be electable in a backlog year. Personally I like Parrish, Stieb, Hernandez, and maybe Nettles in that group, but that's not a guarantee of anything at all. ; )

Also if Ken Singleton or Bobby Bonds should pick up any further support, that could shift another guy into the 1970s. Oh, and Wynn's almost-assured election will tack one more onto the 1960s. Amazing that we're one or two off of the HOF for them long period between 1890-1950, then suddenly twice that for several decades.
   27. Chris Cobb Posted: January 25, 2007 at 06:15 PM (#2286261)
Well, we differ from the HoF in the twenties and thirties mostly be whom we've left out rather than who we've brought in.
   28. DanG Posted: January 25, 2007 at 06:34 PM (#2286275)
Amazing that we're one or two off of the HOF for them long period between 1890-1950, then suddenly twice that for several decades.

Actually it was predictable, which I did.

At the HoM’s inception, it wasn’t difficult to see that there were three main groups that we were going to be electing many guys from that the HOF had missed: 19th century stars, Negro leaguers (which the HOF largely cleaned up last year), and Expansion era stars (1960’s to 1990’s).

Why has the HOF missed so many recent greats? First of all, they haven’t had time yet to “finish” those decades. Their “first pass” on an era takes about forty years. When the VC reformed in 2001, they had only just begun voting in 1960’s stars (Bunning, Cepeda and Mazeroski). Santo was due for eligibility in 2002. Another factor is the low offensive levels in the 1963-76 era made it hard for the voters to discern who was a great hitter.

So the HoM must again point the way to the HOF, to identify the many overlooked greats of the Expansion era.
   29. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 25, 2007 at 11:12 PM (#2286413)
I want to say that if you are going to include Keith Hernandez in that group, you should also include Don Mattingly, who I believe was a superior player.

Of course neither has a very godo chance of getting in, but just sayin'.
   30. yest Posted: January 26, 2007 at 12:11 AM (#2286425)
A list of eligible HoFers
HoMers in bold
all HoFers with significant playing careers are included
1936
Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson
1937
Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young , Connie Mack, John McGraw, George Wright
1938
Pete Alexander
1939
George Sisler , Eddie Collins , Willie Keeler , Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson , Charlie Comiskey , Candy Cummings , Buck Ewing , Charles Radbourn , Al Spalding
1942
Rogers Hornsby
1945
Roger Bresnahan , Dan Brouthers , Fred Clarke , Jimmy Collins , Ed Delahanty , Hugh Duffy , Hughie Jennings , King Kelly , Jim O’Rourke , Wilbert Robinson
1946
Jesse Burkett , Frank Chance , Jack Chesbro , Johnny Evers , , Clark Griffith, , Tommy McCarthy , Joe McGinnity , Eddie Plank , Joe Tinker , Rube Waddell , Ed Walsh
1947
Carl Hubbell , Frankie Frisch , Mickey Cochrane , Lefty Grove
1948
Herb Pennock , Pie Traynor
1949
Charlie Gehringer , Mordecai Brown , Kid Nichols
1951
Mel Ott , Jimmie Foxx
1952
Harry Heilmann , Paul Waner
1953
Al Simmons , Dizzy Dean , Chief Bender , Bobby Wallace , Harry Wright
1954
Rabbit Maranville , Bill Dickey , Bill Terry
1955
Joe DiMaggio , Ted Lyons , Dazzy Vance , Gabby Hartnett , Frank Baker , Ray Schalk
1956
Hank Greenberg , Joe Cronin
1957
Sam Crawford
1959
Zack Wheat
1961
Max Carey , Billy Hamilton
1962
Bob Feller , Jackie Robinson , Bill McKechnie , Edd Roush
1963
John Clarkson , Elmer Flick , Sam Rice , Eppa Rixey
1964
Luke Appling , Red Faber , Burleigh Grimes , Miller Huggins , Tim Keefe , Heinie Manush , Monte Ward
1965
Pud Galvin
1966
Ted Williams , Casey Stengel
1967
Red Ruffing , Lloyd Waner
1968
Joe Medwick , Kiki Cuyler , Goose Goslin
1969
Stan Musial, Roy Campanella , Stan Coveleski , , Waite Hoyt,
1970
Lou Boudreau , Earle Combs , Jesse Haines,
1971
Dave Bancroft , Jake Beckley , Chick Hafey , Harry Hooper , Joe Kelley , Rube Marquard , Satchel Paige
1972
Sandy Koufax , Yogi Berra ,Early Wynn, Lefty Gomez , Ross Youngs , Josh Gibson , Buck Leonard
1973
Warren Spahn , George Kelly , Mickey Welch , Monte Irvin , Roberto Clemente
1974
Mickey Mantle , Whitey Ford , Jim Bottomley , Sam Thompson , Cool Papa Bell
1975
Ralph Kiner , Earl Averill , Bucky Harris , Billy Herman , Judy Johnson
1976
Robin Roberts, Bob Lemon , Roger Connor , Freddy Lindstrom , Oscar Charleston
1977
Ernie Banks ,Amos Rusie , Joe Sewell , Al Lopez , Martin Dihigo , Pop Lloyd
1978
Eddie Mathews, Addie Joss
1979
Willie Mays , Hack Wilson
1980
Al Kaline, Duke Snider, Chuck Klein
1981
Bob Gibson, Johnny Mize , Rube Foster
1982
Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Travis Jackson
1983
Brooks Robinson, Juan Marichal, George Kell
1984
Luis Aparicio, Harmon Killebrew, Don Drysdale, Rick Ferrell , Pee Wee Reese
1985
Hoyt Wilhelm, Lou Brock, Enos Slaughter , Arky Vaughan
1986
Willie McCovey, Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi
1987
Billy Williams, Catfish Hunter, Ray Dandridge
1988
Willie Stargell
1989
Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Red Schoendienst
1990
Jim Palmer , Joe Morgan
1991
Rod Carew, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins , Tony Lazzeri
1992
Tom Seaver, Rollie Fingers, Hal Newhouser
1993
Reggie Jackson
1994
Steve Carlton, Leo Durocher , Phil Rizzuto
1995
Leon Day , Vic Willis , Richie Ashburn
1996
Jim Bunning, Bill Foster , Ned Hanlon
1997
Phil Niekro, Nellie Fox, Willie Wells
1998
George Davis , Larry Doby , Joe Rogan
1999
Orlando Cepeda, Joe Williams
2000
Tony Perez, Bid McPhee , Turkey Stearnes
2001
Bill Mazeroski , Hilton Smith
2006
Ray Brown, Willard Brown, Andy Cooper, Biz Mackey, Mule Suttles, Cristobal Torriente, Jud Wilson, Frank Grant, Pete Hill, Jose Mendez Louis Santop, Ben Taylor, Sol White
   31. jingoist Posted: January 26, 2007 at 02:18 AM (#2286502)
Does anyone know if Uncle Robbie (Wilbert Robinson), elected in 1945, was elected as a player, as a manager or both?
From looking at his stats he seemed to be a steady, capable catcher (and a less than spectacular hitter ) for many years.
   32. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 26, 2007 at 02:45 AM (#2286516)
Mark,

I think you'll be surprised to see that Hernandez is indeed a superior candidate to Mattingly. Here's their best-to-worst WS, adjusted for strikes, and the third line is how much of a cumulative advantage Hernandez has season by season:

KH (320 total): 33 29 29 29 28 27 24 24 23 21 19 13 13 3 3 1 1
DM (271 total): 34 32 29 27 26 24 22 20 20 14 9 7 7 0
ad: -1 -4 -4 -2 0 3 5 9 12 19 29 35 41 44 47 48 49

At three years Mattinly has a modest peak advantage, at five years it's all gone, at ten years the advantage is widened to almost a full year's worth of WS, by 15 years it's a pretty wide gap. Overall, Hernandez isn't a lot better, but he's better.

Here's their WARP1s while I'm at it

KH (110.1): 11.6 10.8 10.7 9.7 9.5 9.1 7.8 7.4 6.7 6.5 5.5 5.2 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 -0.1
DM (76.2) : 11.7 10.6 9.3 8.3 6.5 5.9 5.6 4.9 3.9 3.7 2.9 1.6 1.2 0.1
ad: -.1 .1 1.5 2.9 5.9 9.1 11.3 13.8 16.6 19.4 22.0 25.6 28.7 31.2 32.6 33.5 33.8 33.7

This is a much bigger gap than the one described by WS, and, in fact, WARP sees the gap as developing much more quickly (as soon as the third season), with Hernandez having the superior peak at any interval other than 1 year.
   33. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 26, 2007 at 02:51 AM (#2286520)
shucks, forgot the coding...here it is again

By WS
KH (320 total): 33 29 29 29 28 27 24 24 23 21 19 13 13  3  3  1  1 
DM 
(271 total): 34 32 29 27 26 24 22 20 20 14  9  7  7  0
ad
:             ----2  0  3  5  9 12 19 29 35 41 44 47 48 49 


By WARP1
KH (110.1): 11.6 10.8 10.7 9.7 9.5 9.1  7.8  7.4  6.7  6.5  5.5  5.2  4.3  2.6  1.4  0.9  0.3 -0.1
DM 
(76.2) : 11.7 10.6  9.3 8.3 6.5 5.9  5.6  4.9  3.9  3.7  2.9  1.6  1.2  0.1
ad
:          -.1   .1  1.5 2.9 5.9 9.1 11.3 13.8 16.6 19.4 22.0 25.6 28.7 31.2 32.6 33.5 33.8 33.7 
   34. yest Posted: January 26, 2007 at 02:53 AM (#2286522)
the plaques would prorbly show the mindset of those who put him in

WILBERT ROBINSON
"UNCLE ROBBIE"
STAR CATCHER FOR THE FAMOUS
BALTIMORE ORIOLES ON PENNANT CLUBS
OF 1894, '95 AND '96. HE LATER WON FAME
AS MANAGER OF THE BROOKLYN DODGERS
FROM 1914 THROUGH 1931. SET A RECORD OF
7 HITS IN 7 TIMES AT BAT IN SINGLE GAME.
   35. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 26, 2007 at 03:05 AM (#2286529)
actually, i'll toss out OPS+ too. Seasons of 250 or more PAs
KH (129): 152 148 143 142 141 131 130 127 127 126 120 120 108
DM 
(127): 161 156 156 146 133 128 118 113 108 107 103  97  81 


Here we see more of the expected peak/prime dichotomy, yet again, by year five, Hernandez has caught up, and he puts distance between from then on. Hernandez loses four seasons to the PA requirement, Mattinly one.

And by eqa (warp1 version), > 200+ outs (since they list that instead, same group of seasons)

KH (.301): .326 .321 .320 .320 .315 .305 .304 .301 .298 .294 .293 .287 .280
DM 
(.290): .328 .320 .318 .307 .294 .291 .284 .281 .268 .267 .265 .257 .236 


Yowza.

So several different stats and systems all show either that Hernandez is out-and-out superior, or that he's a little bit superior, but none really shows Mattinly as having a major advantage, even in the peak department.
   36. OCF Posted: January 26, 2007 at 03:18 AM (#2286535)
Why would Mattingly commonly be considered a superior player to Hernandez, and why would Eric's last several posts surprise anyone? Because OBP was (and is) at least partly invisible. Hernandez was an OBP-first offensive player, Mattingly was a SLG-first offensive player.

Now is not the time to pull out all the details (that can wait until he's eligible), but I have Hernandez closely comparable in offensive value to Terry and Cepeda. Thow in his considerable defensive value, and I'd say he has a case.
   37. Paul Wendt Posted: January 26, 2007 at 03:29 AM (#2286543)
jingoist Posted: January 25, 2007 at 08:18 PM (#2286502)
Does anyone know if Uncle Robbie (Wilbert Robinson), elected in 1945, was elected as a player, as a manager or both? From looking at his stats he seemed to be a steady, capable catcher (and a less than spectacular hitter ) for many years.

For about two decades, inductees were not classified by baseball role, only sometimes as old-timers of one sort or another. It's obvious that Fred Clarke would have been elected as a player, Connie Mack as a manager, and Charles Comiskey as an executive, had election in one role or another been required. But that wasn't required, so it isn't correct to say any of them was elected "as a [role]". At least for Clark Griffith, Hugh Jennings, and Frank Chance, it's possible that broad consideration was crucial to their election.

Bob Richardson of SABR, dedicated after-work reader of newspapers on microfilm at Boston Public Library, uses Wilbert Robinson for example. He has told me that people make the "mistake" of thinking Uncle Robbie was elected because writers thought he and the Dodgers were lovable losers (ie elected as a manager), but Robinson was also greatly respected as a long-serving catcher on a great and famous team, when it was still the norm for two men to split the catcher position.

--
Amazing that we're one or two off of the HOF for them long period between 1890-1950, then suddenly twice that for several decades.

[Dan Greenia]
Actually it was predictable, which I did.


Don't mind me but I predicted it too.

For about fifty years, when Dan G or Marc S would observe that justice demands Cooperstown induct recent players at the same rate as Golden Agers (Heinie Groh and Stan Hack aside!), I would ask why the standard of justice should be ~1910-1960 rather than ~1860-1910. Why shouldn't a middle infielder be as prominent in his time as Bid McPhee and George Davis were in the 80s/90s and 90s/00s? In the outfield, Paul Hines and George Gore, Jimmy Sheckard and Sherry Magee don't make the cut. Why should we treat the gardeners of ~1960-2010 like Manush, Klein and Wilson of the 20s/30s? [Note, I don't say like giant Ross Youngs and cardinal Chick Hafey. They are probably among the mistakes, even in a big hall, whom DanG would except from comparison.]

So of course HOM-not-HOF will be full of pre-1910 and post-1960 (and Negro Leaguers from the middle period).
And HOF-not-HOM should be full of whites from 1910-1960.
Give me some slack and let me put Magee and Tinker, Cepeda and Pierce each on the side of the line that clarifies my picture instead of muddying it!
   38. DanG Posted: January 26, 2007 at 08:11 PM (#2286838)
For about fifty years, when Dan G … would observe that justice demands Cooperstown induct recent players at the same rate as Golden Agers

I never quite argued for the same rate. Still, I’ve never fully explained what exactly I had in mind.

I don't say like giant Ross Youngs and cardinal Chick Hafey. They are probably among the mistakes, even in a big hall, whom DanG would except from comparison

Likewise Manush and Wilson!

For the past couple years I’ve played around with a system showing how many players should be in the hall of fame for every year 1876-1991. This, in order to compare it to how many HOFers from MLB were playing at least semi-regularly in each year. The number that “should be” enshrined for each year increases throughout baseball history, quickly reaching 24 by 1889, then gradually leveling off to 38 for each year after 1981.

Without getting into the specifics of the system, we see a spike in the actual number of HOFers in the decade 1925-1934, an average of 48.2 HOFers per season. The high is 51 players in 1933. The “expected” number of HOFers for that period is 33.6, so there are about 15 HOFers per year who should not be enshrined.

Looking at the period it’s easy to identify who those 15 guys are (alphabetically): Bottomley, Combs, Cuyler, Hafey, Haines, Hoyt, Jackson, Kelly, Lazzeri, Lindstrom, Manush, Pennock, Rice, Waner, and Wilson.

Looking at HoM results, we see 15 players of earlier vintage who ought to be enshrined instead. Setting aside the "pioneers" from pre-NL (Pearce, Start, Pike, McVey and Barnes) you get (chronologically): White, Sutton, Hines, Richardson, Gore, Stovey, Bennett, Glasscock, Caruthers, Childs, Dahlen, Sheckard, Magee, Jackson, and Groh.

The system is still under development, so these may change. But for the 1960’s, there are 33.1 HOFers per year, versus 36.3 per year that should be there. So far the HoM has added Torre, Freehan, Allen, Santo and Boyer. If you knock off Mazeroski, Aparicio and maybe Cepeda as mistakes, the HoM agrees pretty well with the system.

For the 1970’s there are 31.4 HOFers per year, versus 37 per year that should be there. If the BBWAA elects Gossage they’ll still be five players short for the decade, even shorter if you set aside Hunter and maybe Brock.
   39. sunnyday2 Posted: February 06, 2007 at 03:55 PM (#2292683)
bump

I like being able to check last year's results while the new vote is unfolding.

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