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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, February 05, 2007

1994 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Ted Simmons, Don Sutton, Graig Nettles, Dave Concepcion, Jose Cruz, Ron Guidry and Don Baylor.

Top-ten returnees: Phil Niekro, Quincey Trouppe, Nellie Fox, Jimmy Wynn, Edd Roush, Charlie Keller and Rollie Fingers.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 05, 2007 at 01:57 PM | 169 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. rawagman Posted: February 09, 2007 at 10:26 PM (#2294998)
kwarren, I would not presume to speak for the entire electorate (not with my consensus grades, anyway), but I can tell you something.
No matter what homespun system each of us uses, we all, at some level are looking for winners. Guys who helped their teams win games, guys who helped their teams win pennants/championships. What we at times disagree with, is the way these wins are measured. As a group, I beleive I can unequivocally say that we have eschewed the beleif that any one win-measurement system is the be-all end-all way of positive baseball contributions.
Personally, I disagree with the concept of measuring an individual along a pool of available win points accrued by his team, but prefer to build my "win system" using quantifiable achievements of the player that should lead to wins in an "all-else-being-equal" sort of way.
I will tweak my system over time, but then again, so does WS and WARP.
   102. jimd Posted: February 09, 2007 at 10:58 PM (#2295016)
A lot of people out there seem to have home made systems that incorporate their particular biases regarding peak versus longevity, relief pitchers and leverage, war time credit, varying talent pools, strength of leagues etc. These systems are obviously fun and interesting but don't focus on "wins". Any objective system that focuses on wins (WARP & Win Shares) usually give similar results. The one thing that has always constant in baseball is "it is wins that count".

Two points about this. A long running debate here is about the distortions in both WARP and Win Shares. Portions of our home-grown systems deal with correcting those distortions. Another long running debate is about how Wins translate to Merit. Peak vs Prime vs Career. When I started voting nearly 100 years ago, I had a mind-set somewhat similar to yours. I'm on version 4 of my home-grown system (which incorporates both WARP and WinShares plus other data and adjustments) in my attempt to balance "wins" with "fairness to all eras".
   103. yest Posted: February 09, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2295018)
Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey)
especially since he was elected
   104. sunnyday2 Posted: February 10, 2007 at 12:13 AM (#2295060)
>I was going to ask kwarren the same thing. From his posts, it appear he would just line the players up based on their WARP scores.

I gather that if he voted, he would do the opposite of what all of us voters do, if he voted. He would eliminate all of the biases, and then he would vote, if he voted. It's a damn shame he doesn't vote though because, if he voted which he doesn't but if he did, his would be the perfect ballot, if he voted.

Of course, since there's nothing out there remotely close to the perfect system, I guess he would create a homespun system of some kind. Except that homespun systems are biased and his would eliminate all of the bias. But, anyway, if he voted he would just do the opposite of what you and I do.
   105. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 10, 2007 at 01:01 AM (#2295090)
Well, the amusing thing is this.

If you don't adjust for schedule, then the old guys always lose out...which violates the "fair to all eras" doctrine of the HOM.

If you do adjust for schedule, no matter how smartly you do it, you introduce uncertainty and perhaps even bias because each person has their own system which reflects their belief. Now you are violating Ken's wish to avoid bias and you're also introducing fictitious wins into the pool of available wins for any wins-based system to draw from.

Right there, you are ####ed. [I self-censored for those interested, this is a familyish zone.] And you haven't even started to deal with QoP, NgLs, MiL credit, war credit, and all manner of stuff. Bill James was right, it's a 100-point balancing act, and none of us, not a one, not even the smartest or most statty or most baseball intutive among us knows how to balance it all.... Although some of us often make as though we do! [Self very much included.] ; )

So enjoy the ride, and come vote with us!
   106. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 10, 2007 at 01:16 AM (#2295094)
Bill James was right, it's a 100-point balancing act, and none of us, not a one, not even the smartest or most statty or most baseball intutive among us knows how to balance it all....

I'm wary of anyone who thinks he has it all figured out here.

Marc:

:-)
   107. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 10, 2007 at 02:46 AM (#2295127)
Now you are violating Ken's wish to avoid bias

sorry, that's kwarren's wish, not ken's.
   108. Howie Menckel Posted: February 10, 2007 at 02:49 AM (#2295128)
The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.

What does "not yet sufficiently mature" mean, other than you don't want to use them.

ANSWER: It means that in some cases the formulas keep changing, and in others people have just begun to think about the inherent flaws.

I am more of a career guy than many here, for instance, but what do you do when a player just won't quit, and keeps on putting up 80 OPS+ or ERA+ scores?
Some here give extra credit via various formulas.
Others give demerits for diminished rate.
I consider the years irrelevant, neither a help nor a hindrance.
I don't "not want" to use any system.
I'm also not a slave to one system, bowing at its altar and ignoring its flaws.

And what the heck, I've wound up as the all-time consensus voter (or darn close), so maybe I'm no dumber than the crowd....
   109. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 03:23 AM (#2295137)
Hmm, I think I should probably update my player blurbs for next year's ballot....

Also, sunny, you are one crabby old man! ;-)
   110. kwarren Posted: February 10, 2007 at 03:51 AM (#2295144)
A long running debate here is about the distortions in both WARP and Win Shares. Portions of our home-grown systems deal with correcting those distortions. Another long running debate is about how Wins translate to Merit. Peak vs Prime vs Career.


Before we can correct the distortions we need to know what the distortions are.

Win Shares are bad because they don't have a replacment value. I don't see this as much of a problem. Replacement value is not really a relevant concept when determining different levels of greatness. It can be meaningful when determining how much to pay for a certain player when you want a way to measure his value.

I was once criticized for using Win Shares because they didn't take defense into account properly. I was told to use WARP which did a better job of incorporating defense. Then I was told that WARP's defensive metrics were terrible and to use Chris Dial's defensive metrics, but they don't go back any further than 1987 are not incorporated with Win Shares or WARP in any event.

Today I read about a system that uses WARP but adjusts it on an annual basis depending the amount of standard deviation that existed for a particular season, thereby making Reggie Smith better than Stargell, and Conception equal to Santo. OK, fine....I think I'll take a pass. I always thought that standard deviations were meant to tell you about a particular distribution, not that they always had to be the same. I do know that in many seasons a low standard deviation is perfectly acceptable and shouldn't be adjusted, current AL second baseman for example. I really see no reason why the distribution of talent has to be the same for every season. In fact, I think that making that adjustment just creates more distortion.

As to how we define "merit" and peak versus longevity - these are perfectly legitimate issues and will obviously be treated differently by different people. Replacing "wins above replacement player" to "wins above average player" might be a perfectly reasonable thing to do for purposes of measuring excellence, although I'm not sure that such a stat is currently available for all players throughout history.
   111. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 10, 2007 at 04:27 AM (#2295153)
As to how we define "merit" and peak versus longevity - these are perfectly legitimate issues and will obviously be treated differently by different people.

You're telling us! ; )
   112. Howie Menckel Posted: February 10, 2007 at 05:03 AM (#2295161)
I anxiously await a retort for me...
   113. kwarren Posted: February 10, 2007 at 05:23 AM (#2295166)
but what do you do when a player just won't quit, and keeps on putting up 80 OPS+ or ERA+ scores?
1) Some here give extra credit via various formulas.
2) Others give demerits for diminished rate.
3) I consider the years irrelevant, neither a help nor a hindrance.


1) This sounds like the BBWAA who love the counting stats - hits, HR, RBI, SB. In most cases the player is still helping is team in a very marginal fashion, if you consider every win to have some value. If the goal is to make the post-season, then these type of seasons actually have negative value and these players are contributing more losses than wins. Maybe we should also have Loss Shares to go along with Win Shares so each player has a won-loss record that he contributed to his team.

2) I think that most analyts would agee that this is silly. You may want to give a demerit to the GM of the team that pays him for this performance, but you can hardly blame the player for not retiring when someone wants to throw big money at you to play. If somebody wants to pay $000's to Jeff Fassero, Terry Mulholland, and Mike Morgan to keep playing what are they supposed to do. Do some people also give demerits to those players who are brought up too early and put up lousy stats in their formative years. Career rate stats are very misleading and cannot be used to compare careers of varying length. Telling someone that Koufax is better than Blyleven because he has a career 140 ERA+ versus 122+ for Blyleven is a little ridiculous. Now comparing ERA+ for best five seasons or best three seasons is a reasonable basis for comparison.

3) Makes sense to me. The only problem with this approach is that you have to ignore career rate stats when players have varying length of careers.
   114. Brent Posted: February 10, 2007 at 06:16 AM (#2295170)
1994 Ballot:

1. Phil Niekro – Over 14 seasons (1967-69, 71-80, 84) he averaged 17-14, 2.8 wins above team, 278 IP, 125 DERA+, 177 SO, 84 BB. (PHoM 1993)

2. Ted Simmons – Along with Freehan and Torre, another catcher who was overlooked by that other Hall. (PHoM 1994)

3. Phil Rizzuto – Excellent defense; above average hitter at his position; key contributor to many pennants. (PHoM 1967)

4. Ken Singleton – (PHoM 1991)
5. Hugh Duffy – (PHoM 1931)
6. Alejandro Oms – (PHoM 1967)
7. Jimmy Wynn – (PHoM 1985)
8. Bobby Bonds – (PHoM 1987)
A cluster of outfielders who didn’t have super-high peaks or super-long careers, but each of them put up many seasons at the all-star level.

9. Tony Pérez – He had a lot of empty seasons on either side, but from 1967-78 he was right up there too. (PHoM 1994)

10. Sal Bando – Best available third baseman. (PHoM 1987)

11. Elston Howard – An outstanding peak from 1961-64 and a bit of extra credit for delays in integration. (PHoM 1977)

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

13. Nellie Fox – We’re not done with the 1950s yet. (PHoM 1979)

14. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (PHoM 1958)

15. Gavy Cravath – Among the pure hitters, he has the strongest credentials. (PHoM 1976)

Near misses:

16–20. Welch (PHoM 1966), Redding (PHoM 1976), Bresnahan, Grimes (PHoM 1940), Keller
21–25. F Howard, Leach (PHoM 1932), Cepeda, Newcombe, R Smith
26–30. Brock, Van Haltren, Nettles, Arlett, Pesky

Other consensus top 10:

Quincy Trouppe – With little information available on his fielding skills, I’ve ranked him behind Elston Howard, whose defensive excellence was clear.

Edd Roush – He had only 5 seasons in which he played 90 percent of his team’s games. In a field this tight, that's enough to knock him out of the running.

Charlie Keller – # 20. It’s starting to look like he’ll make my PHoM. I’m not so sure about ever making my ballot.

Rollie Fingers – I see him as part of a cluster of fine relievers who don’t quite rise to my ballot cutoff.

Other new arrivals:

Graig Nettles - # 28. He comes close to defining the borderline between the players who have a shot at making my PHoM and those who don’t.

Bruce Sutter - # 55. I’ve placed him behind Fingers and Marshall.

José Cruz - # 57.

Dave Concepción – His mix of skills was similar to Rizzuto’s, but pitched at a little lower level.

Don Sutton – I’m not aware of an award in any field of endeavor that can maintain a high level of esteem when given for performance that’s just a little above average.

Ron Guidry – Sutton had the career, Guidry had the peak. What they both lacked, however, was a prime of seven or eight seasons as one of the top 15 to 20 pitchers in baseball.
   115. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 02:05 PM (#2295191)
kwarren--You are of course free to ignore my work, but please don't misrepresent it. I use a regression-projected standard deviation based on the characteristics of the season (factors like number of teams, run scoring, and integration) to determine what the "true" standard deviation of the season was, rather than the actual league standard deviation. Thus, seasons or eras where talent just happened to be bunched tightly together (1910's NL) or spread out widely (2001-02 NL, although there's no "steroids" dummy variable yet) are *not* improperly corrected or adjusted for, and the distribution of talent in fact is *not* forced to be the same in every season. I'm simply controlling for league characteristics that make it easier or harder to dominate. If you want to criticize my methodology, I'd love to hear thoughts on how to improve it.

Furthermore, since Stargell and Smith were basically contemporaries, standard deviations have next to nothing to do with why I see them as basically equal (yes, I have Smith higher, but by a meaningless amount; there are error bars on this like everything else). If you actually read the thread and my comments/analysis, I'm basically arguing that the fact that Stargell was a LF/1B, and a pretty bad one at that, while Smith was a slightly above average CF/RF, exactly makes up for the difference in their offense.

I do have Concepción as a nudge above Santo, largely because Santo a) got to beat up on expansion pitching and had his OPS+ improved by the comparison to expansion hitting and b) played in an era when good-hitting 3B were a dime a dozen, while Concepción played in an era when finding a shortstop who wouldn't singlehandedly ruin your offense was next to impossible.
   116. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 02:07 PM (#2295193)
Brent--Concepción and Rizzuto pitched?

I may not get you to vote for him, but at least you put the accent on his name right. :)
   117. TomH Posted: February 10, 2007 at 02:38 PM (#2295202)
<i?When people start looking at things such as hits, stolen bases, defensive reputation, black ink, Hall of Fame Monitor points, MYP awards and voting, Cy Young Award voting, BA, ERA, RBI, saves, leverage, and war or injury credit for games players never played they are giving into the biases</i>

No, we're using our brains to see what was good.

Now, I agree with Ken a bit, that using ONLY those things above to put together a ballot is pcertainly psilly. But ERA, black ink, saves, war credit, et al, are not completely irrelevant. To perjure a poor metric is another mistake. To only use it as much as it is worth is wise.
   118. favre Posted: February 10, 2007 at 02:52 PM (#2295204)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Phil Niekro
2. Charley Jones
3. Jake Beckley

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments); a career OPS+ 150 or thereabouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s; eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits); not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than the others with the possible exception of Keller. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

Over the past thirty years Beckley has finished between seventh and sixteenth in the balloting, 25 times between eighth and thirteenth (12th place is his median finish). He keeps hanging around the end of the ballot, but never moves much up or down. With fourteen elections left, it will be very interesting to see if he makes it. You would think so, but…

4. Jimmy Wynn
5. Vic Willis
6. Bucky Walters

Jimmy Wynn is one of the 1970s sabermetric love children. Six seasons with an OPS+ of 140, five of those playing CF. Willis had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109).

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defenses were either in the service or growing old.

7. Nellie Fox
8. Ted Simmons
9. Bob Elliott

Boyer’s election gives us another fifties infielder, bringing us to six. (Boyer, Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew and Robinson, but Killer wasn’t established as a full-time player until ’59, and Brooksie until 1960). That’s still too few for a decade of high quality, integrated play. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF. Rose arrives on the scene (as I was reminded) in 1963, so that would be about an eleven year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

Simmons debuts smack dab in the middle of the ballot. I have him a little lower than others—his defense was average, and he wasn’t *that* good of a hitter—but he still has an impressive prime for a catcher, and is a worthy selection.

It’s hard for me to see the difference between Bob Elliott (287 WS, 124 OPS+, 92.7 WARP1) and Ken Boyer (279 WS, 116 OPS+, 95.0 WARP1; not that I really care about WARP). We’ve only elected seven 3B who debuted before 1950, which seems a little paltry for eighty years of professional baseball.

10. Roger Bresnahan
11. Gavvy Cravath
12. Don Sutton

We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke.

Sutton’s 5283 IP gets him on the ballot. Did not have a bad season from 1968 through 1986.

13. Tommy Leach
14. Ken Singleton
15. Larry Doyle

Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. 324 career WS, great defense at two key positions, and he could hit a little. Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+.

I’m throwing Singleton some love. If I’m going to vote for a 300 WS OF, I like voting for the guy with nine top ten OBP finishes. Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there are many 1970s outfielders heading for induction. Stargell and Yastzremski are in, although they played a lot of 1B in the decade; Reggie and Winfield are coming; then there’s a bunch of guys—Parker, Rice, Lynn, Dewey, Bonds Sr.—clumped together. I think I like Singleton better than the rest, although I haven’t given Cobra or Dewey a complete look yet.


16-20: Eddie Ciccotte, Jim Fregosi, Larry Doyle, Wally Schang, , Tony Perez

Not in my top fifteen:

Charlie Keller See Jones comment. Currently #20. I don’t give minor-league credit to twenty-one year olds, although he does receive full war credit. That puts him in a glut of outfielders with similar arguments.

Pete Browning Browning wasn’t in the top ten, but I thought I would comment on him, since I looked at him very closely this week. Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defense, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Edd Roush Like Browning, in some respects: weaker league, had some playing time issues, although he was a whole lot better with the glove.

Rollie Fingers I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy, and Fingers does not look good using either system. Still, Sunny’s argument, that the third best reliever before 1988 should be in, is starting to make sense to me.

Quincey Trouppe One of the really interesting finds of this project…heck, why *aren’t* I voting for him? You know, with all due respect to Dr. C—who has been an invaluable contributor—at the end of the day, I just don’t fully trust the Mexican league MLE’s, and the war makes things even messier.
   119. Juan V Posted: February 10, 2007 at 04:38 PM (#2295225)
Brent--Concepción and Rizzuto pitched?


David did. Surely, we have to elect someone with an ERA+ of infinity ;-)
   120. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 10, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2295242)
Hah, look at that. I'm his biggest supporter and I had no idea. June 3, 1988, a 40-year-old Concepción comes out of the pen in the bottom of the 7th trailing 13-4 to relieve John Franco with men on first and second and two outs. He got backup catcher Rick Dempsey to ground out to Barry Larkin to end the inning. Then he stayed on for the 8th, giving up a leadoff single to Steve Sax, getting a flyout to Eric Davis from Mickey Hatcher, surrendering another single up the middle to Danny Heep, inducing Jeff Hamilton to pop up to catcher, and K'ing Franklin Stubbs to strand them. That should be enough to convince all of his doubters.
   121. kwarren Posted: February 10, 2007 at 11:42 PM (#2295368)
Furthermore, since Stargell and Smith were basically contemporaries, standard deviations have next to nothing to do with why I see them as basically equal (yes, I have Smith higher, but by a meaningless amount; there are error bars on this like everything else). If you actually read the thread and my comments/analysis, I'm basically arguing that the fact that Stargell was a LF/1B, and a pretty bad one at that, while Smith was a slightly above average CF/RF, exactly makes up for the difference in their offense.

I do have Concepción as a nudge above Santo, largely because Santo a) got to beat up on expansion pitching and had his OPS+ improved by the comparison to expansion hitting and b) played in an era when good-hitting 3B were a dime a dozen, while Concepción played in an era when finding a shortstop who wouldn't singlehandedly ruin your offense was next to impossible.


Willie Stargell.....10.9, 10.0, 8.3, 8.2, 8.2...(45.6)...105.8

BRAR - 863, BRAA - 599, FRAR - 106, FRAA - (58)

Reggie Smith........ 9.7, 8.9, 6.8, 6.4, 6.2....(38.0)...91.4

BRAR - 639, BRAA - 403, FRAR - 192, FRAA - (7)

Willie Stargell produced either 224 runs or 196 runs more than Reggie Smith depending whether you use BRAR or BRAA. In terms of defense Smith was better than Stargell by either 86 runs or 51 runs depending on FRAR or FRAA. How can one possibly conclude that Smith's fielding superiority makes up for Stargell's batting superiority. It's not even close.


Ron Santo...........13.6, 13.5, 13.5, 11.6, 10.1....(62.3)....116.7
Dave Concepcion.....10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8....(49.6)....109.7

Dan seems to be saying that because there were many good hitting 3B when Santo played, he was not quite as good as WARP would suggest. And because Concepcion played at a time when there was a dearth of good hitting shortstops he somehow becomes better himself and his WARP scores need to be increased. It seems to me that WARP would already give Concepcion an artificial boost because he is being compared to a weaker talent pool than Santo is. He hardly needs a further boost by an standard deviation adjustment.

The idea that a player's skill level or merit changes because his competitive environement changes seems rather bizarre to me. Do Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds become worse outfielders because Beltran moves to the National League, and conversely do Wells, Hunter, and Damon all suddenly become a bit better. The quality of the other shortstops who played in the NL when Concepcion has nothing to do with how good Concepcion was. And the same applies to Santo and third baseman.
   122. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 11, 2007 at 02:27 AM (#2295406)
kwarren, you could actually look at the charts I posted to see how I could "possibly conclude" that Smith's fielding superiority makes up for Stargell's batting superiority. To rehash:

I prefer to do things in wins rather than runs to equalize between different run-scoring eras, but since Stargell and Smith were contemporaries runs shouldn't be a problem.

I have Stargell with 549 career BRAA, 68 lower than BP's number, and Smith with 417, just 17 lower than BP's, so there's a 51-run gap there to be explained. My non-park-adjusted XR line up beautifully (always within 2) with BP's UEQR for both players, so BP must be doing something really funky in upwardly adjusting Stargell's UEQR to EQR much more than Smith's, given that they played at the same time. Either we are using wildly different park factors (I have Fenway around a 107 on average during Smith's time there), or they are sticking something awfully strange in their UEQR to EQR stew. I don't know what BP has in mind here, but I'm happy to send you a very straightforward spreadsheet showing how I get these BRAA numbers. BP's BRAA are usually quite reliable, so that's a bit odd. Maybe I'll email them and ask.

I have Stargell with -62 FRAA, exactly in line with BP, and Smith with +20--Win Shares likes Reggie's D a smudge more than BP does.

BP, whose replacement level is the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, has an average player at Stargell's positions as 454 runs above replacement for his career, and an average player at Smith's positions at 469, a gap of just 15 in favor of Smith. My replacement levels are in wins rather than runs, but at about 9 runs a win when these guys were playing, I have Stargell's replacements at 58 runs below average for his career, and Smith's at 112, a 54-run difference reflecting the fact that for a number of years Smith was playing CF while Stargell was at 1B. Clearly the fact that BP takes no account of the actual freely available talent level or changes to it (league average hitters who played first base were a dime a dozen in the pre-DH era; it was much harder to find a hitter of similar caliber who could catch a fly ball) means they won't penalize Stargell for playing 1B nearly as much as I will.

So, in sum, I have Stargell 132 runs better with the stick (compared to BP's 182 better) and Smith 82 + 54 = 136 runs better in the field (compared to BP's 100 better), counting both the difficulty of the positions he played and his fielding at them. Thus, I have their careers as equally valuable.

Why do you say that Concepción is being compared to a weaker talent pool than Santo is? Again, in BP's system, both are compared to a .230 EqA leaguewide replacement level for offense and either a moving replacement level for defense based on chances per game rather than actual freely available talent (for the season-adjusted version) or a static historical constant (for the all-time version). BP takes no account of either the historic shallowness of the SS position while Concepción played nor the comparative depth of the 3B position when Santo played.

I thought we all agreed that a pennant is a pennant and that wins are the currency with which one purchases pennants. How do you produce wins? By being better than your positional peers. Let me put it this way--if Beltrán, Wells, Hunter, and Damon all died in a plane crash tomorrow, Jones and Edmonds would indeed become more valuable (since the league average hitter would decline in ability slightly, and the deceased's teams would have to hire four replacement CF which would in turn drop the CF replacement level a bit, due to their untimely passing). They would produce more wins and pennants for their teams than they do with the current MLB CF population intact.
   123. Chris Cobb Posted: February 11, 2007 at 03:33 AM (#2295427)
Dan R does a good job of showing why the BP WARP1 system might have some shortcomings in its assessment of a player's value.

kwarren's objections assume that WARP1 is completely correct, which is an unwarranted assumption. It is quite possible that Dan R's measures are more accurate at assessing value.

However, the "great players die suddenly in plane crash" hypothetical example suggests reasons against using relative value alone as a measure of merit. It would not seem to me that, even though the survivors would produce more pennants, that they would therefore be more meritorious. Measuring their value against a somewhat broader and more stable baseline seems appropriate.

I would say, however, that kwarren has been somewhat inconsistent in his claims, berating some voters for using things other than wins to assess a player's merit, and on the other hand berating Dan R. for using a very precisely calibrated measure of players' win value as the basis of his evaluations.

The unstated position behind those positions would seem that we should simply be using BP's WARP values as our measure. Few voters who have been at this a long time view any single metric as reliable enough to trust without corrections and cross-checks.

Incidentally, BP's WARP uses leverage (crudely calculated) in its calculation of win values for relief pitchers, as does win shares.
   124. Juan V Posted: February 11, 2007 at 03:39 AM (#2295431)
However, the "great players die suddenly in plane crash" hypothetical example suggests reasons against using relative value alone as a measure of merit. It would not seem to me that, even though the survivors would produce more pennants, that they would therefore be more meritorious. Measuring their value against a somewhat broader and more stable baseline seems appropriate.


I see this as a matter of personal taste. The survivors are indeed creating more wins and pennants after the hypothetical crash, and whether this constitutes merit is probably up to each voter (isn´t there anything in the Constitution regarding this kind of stuff?).
   125. dan b Posted: February 11, 2007 at 03:59 AM (#2295441)
PHoM 1994 – Sutton, Bando, Simmons



1. Keller PHoM 1967. I am honored to be Charlie’s best friend. 1989 re-evaluation moves him ahead of Duffy in my backlog. Now giving him 20 WS for 1938, 32 WS for 1944 and 1945. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
2. Dean PHoM 1976. And Dizzy’s best friend too. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time.
3. Sutton PHoM 1994. He is obviously no Walter Johnson, whose career K record lasted 62 years, but the similarity of their career K and BB totals is at a minimum a fun tidbit to surprise your friends with. Add his proximity to the top of the list for career shutouts (post deadball era) and this peak voter (see above) can ignore his lack of peak.
4. Niekro PHoM 1993. How much of a problem would it have caused the scorekeepers if I had put Niekro and Sutton in a tie for 3rd?
5. Simmons PHoM 1994. Hall worthy.
6. Roush PHoM 1942. Better than Ashburn
7. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
8. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
9. Wynn, J PHoM 1986. NHBA #10 CF.
10. Fox, N PHoM 1987.If Maz could hit like Nellie, the 1960 WS hero would have been elected by now.
11. Bando PHoM 1994. Close to Boyer, James has him ahead and may be right. NHBA #11.
12. Howard, E NHBA #15
13. Singleton How much better would the HoM be than the HOF if the worst player in our hall was Ken Singleton?
14. Munson NHBA #14
15. Rizzuto 1993 reevaluation moved him up.
16. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
17. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds, but ….
18. Bonds, Bo … Barry’s dad was pretty good.
19. Leach PHoM 1926.
20. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
21. Cooper, W PHoM 1942.
22. Burns, G. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median.
23. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
24. Berger
25. Perez
26. Staub
27. Newcombe Giving more war and mle credit (1993)
28. Cepeda
29. Tiant
30. Browning PHoM 1912.
31. Cash, N
32. Mays, C
33. Doyle PHoM 1930.
34. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
35. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
36. Grimes
37. Ryan
38. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan?
39. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles and Dobie Moore.
40. Elliott
41. Brock not enough peak to be higher
42. Pinson
43. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
44. Rosen If Moore, why not Rosen? If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
45. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
46. Arlett
47. Traynor
48. Nettles
49. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
50. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
   126. Chris Cobb Posted: February 11, 2007 at 04:38 AM (#2295446)
I see this as a matter of personal taste. The survivors are indeed creating more wins and pennants after the hypothetical crash, and whether this constitutes merit is probably up to each voter (isn´t there anything in the Constitution regarding this kind of stuff?).

No, the Constitution does not try to define replacement level. If that had been attempted, the project would have never gotten off the ground :-).

Of course a decision like this is up to each voter. I argue that the more reasonable stance is to use the broader baseline, and not to see a player's merit as so sharply defined by his context. Others will surely disagree.
   127. Jeff M Posted: February 11, 2007 at 05:19 AM (#2295452)
1994 Ballot

1. Niekro, Phil – I expected him to sail into the HoM on career numbers, but his peaks were a lot better than I thought. You couldn’t get two pitchers any different than Carlton and Niekro in real life, but their stats turn out to be pretty similar.

2. Browning, Pete – He proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

3. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

4. Sutter, Bruce – Hard to separate from Fingers, but I give him the edge because he was an innovator with the split-fingered fastball. He also had a higher peak, and his success was more attributable to great stuff.

5. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

6. Fingers, Rollie – One of the few relief pitchers from this era that arguably deserves a spot in the HoM. One of the first consistently good relievers used as a true closer. His numbers indicate, however, that he got away with less than great stuff during some seasons.

7. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust, but he still fares well overall. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position in the outfield, I rank him higher than Billy Williams.

8. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhit the average batter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

9. Dean, Dizzy -- Hard to get this high a ballot position with only five or so seasons, but Dean is the exception.

10. McGraw, John -- Has always lingered near the bottom of the ballot because of that OBP, good defense, and his position occupying a more difficult slot on the defensive spectrum during his era.

11. Roush, Edd -- 300+ WS; 100+ WARP1; normalized .322/.368/.444; good grey ink; and an above average defender in the outfield.

12. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years.

13. Keller, Charlie -- Another solid year and he’s in the middle of the ballot. I certainly don’t doubt his abilities. He's much better than Wynn, even with the shortened career.

14. Simmons, Ted – Catchers generally get a break in my system for the things we cannot measure. But not as big a break when they are poor catchers and spend significant time at other positions. Still, he outranks Joe Torre, in my book.

15. Fox, Nellie – Pretty much tied with Boyer in my system.


Required Disclosure(s):

Trouppe, Quincy – Not ballot worthy based on the things we know.

Wynn, Jimmy – Barely in my consideration set. Can’t give him much credit for being a centerfielder because he probably shouldn’t have been there. He seems like a candidate only for extreme peak voters, and even then it seems a stretch to consider him as a truly great player, even as a backlogger.
   128. Trevor P. Posted: February 11, 2007 at 10:27 PM (#2295712)
First ballot since 1991. Hope I’m still welcome.

1) Phil Niekro. No question. Longevity + a decent peak that gets overlooked = easy #1.
2) Ted Simmons. Likely better than Trouppe (whom I’m a fan of, nonetheless). Not quite the hitter that Torre was, but he caught more.
3) George Van Haltren. Why Ashburn and (possibly) Wynn, yet no love for GVH? 9,000+ PA, 121 OPS+ that would be higher if not for his final two years, and almost 700 IP. As Gob Bluth might say, come on!
4) Jake Beckley. Too much career to ignore, even though I give more weight to prime than I used to.
5) Quincy Trouppe. Hartnett-lite. Would have been a HOMer years ago if there was more certainty about his playing record.
6) Bob Johnson. Beats Minnie Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s. And this is his ranking without minor league credit (which he could deserve).
7) Edd Roush. Also comparable to Ashburn. Nice to see his recent rise.
8) Tony Perez. Could be anywhere from #3 to the bottom of this ballot. Has a more typical career arc than Beckley, and played 1/3 of his career at 3B, but long careers were more predominant in Perez’s day.
9) Jimmie Wynn. Got the spot on my ballot I’d originally reserved for Reggie Smith. Undeniably strong OBP+.
10) Don Sutton. Also could be higher. Just sneaks ahead of Burleigh Grimes.
11) Burleigh Grimes. If he’d grouped his great and middling seasons together, rather than vacillating between the highs and lows, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
12) Bob Elliott. Tough call between him, Nettles, and Cey, but Elliott’s 124 OPS+ stands out more from his peers.
13) Jimmy Ryan. All the GVH comparisons are valid.
14) Dick Redding. A slightly-lesser version of Grimes.
15) Alejandro Oms. Fits my preferred CF profile - long career, decent prime, OPS above 120. Echoes of Roush and GVH.

16-20: Bancroft, Tiant, Fox (substantial move upwards), Cey, Duffy

Keller - Could make my ballot someday, but I’m a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on peak candidates who also rely heavily on credit.
Fingers - About #25. He’s probably the fifth or sixth best reliever of all time, in my system, and that’s not quite enough.
Fox - Just off.
   129. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 12, 2007 at 12:03 AM (#2295753)
Back to vote for the first time since the early "1930's"! With my WARP system finally in hand, I am confident enough in my analysis of the entire consideration set to re-dip my hat in the ring. All my methodology is outlined on the thread discussing my WARP, so I won't bother to repeat it here.

1. Phil Niekro, $98,693,011 + park adjustment
I wasn't able to get the HR park factors I needed for Niekro, but he'd be over $110M if he had a 110 HR park factor for his career, which seems plausible to me. Eleventy gajillion innings at always good and sometimes excellent rates. A no-brainer.

2. David Concepción, $99,273,491
Given the amount of virtual ink I've spilled on him, it should surprise no one at this point that I have him this high. To rehash briefly: He was a career league average hitter, often notably better in his prime, a plus basestealer, and one of the best fielders ever at the most important defensive position. And he played in an era where replacement shortstops were absolutely putrid and where standard deviations were historically low (a low-scoring, integrated league, many years removed from expansion). Thus, by my criteria--exceeding the positional replacement level of your time by the greatest number of standard deviations--he laps the field. Please save your vitriol for the Concepción thread, or for the thread on my WARP system--I'm happy to argue this one forever.

3. Don Sutton, $100,423,933 - park adjustment
I was stunned to see that my system actually had Sutton and Niekro neck-and-neck. Looking deeper, I see that pitching at the same time in the same league, they threw the same number of innings with the same number of strikeouts and home runs allowed, and while Niekro was slightly better at preventing hits on balls in play and much better at stranding runners, he also walked about 500 more guys, thus making their careers virtually equal. But Niekro clearly gave up more homers pitching in Atlanta than he would have otherwise, while Sutton's HR rate probably benefited slightly from Chávez Ravine (although not as much as one would think--L.A. is much worse for hits on balls in play than it is for HR). I wish I had the real HR park factor, but I'll guess 97 which drops him to $96M. I'm quite surprised that my system is so impressed with Sutton, as it doesn't tend to like low-peak career types--I'll dig into it more if he's not elected this "year;" maybe there's a factor I'm not accounting for. Clearly the low stdevs of the 70s and 80s help him, but they do for Niekro as well.

4. Ted Simmons, $88,778,707 + catcher adjustmnet
One of the best hitters ever to play his position, wasn't a major liability behind the plate, and played in a low-stdev era. I give him a marginal bump over players who score slightly higher due to the added difficulty of accumulating value as a catcher.

5. Reggie Smith, $89,664,325
I've outlined my case for Smith on my WARP thread, where I argue he was equal to Stargell (a much better fielder, and played half his career at CF while Stargell had nearly half at 1B).

6. Charley Jones, $87,063,177
Appears to have been a truly dominant player in the early years of the NL, particularly in 1879 which seems like one of the great single seasons of the era. I take him well over Browning (after giving two years of blacklist credit) for playing half his career in the NL and for being a good and sometimes superb fielder.

7. Ron Cey, $84,876,414
My argument for him is on the WARP thread as well. In an era that was extremely tough to dominate and where replacement level for infielders was low, he combined All-Star hitting with notably plus defense for a decade.

8. Quincy Trouppe, $82,253,456
Using Dr. Chaleeko's MLE's and assuming he was a league average defensive catcher, I get to $66.6 million. I credit him with playing at an above-average regular but not All-Star level for his five missing years, which puts him just over the in/out line.

9. Graig Nettles, $81,155,205
An unspectacular hitter at an offensive position, but one of the all-time defensive greats--his 1971 in particular is about the theoretical maximum for how much a player can contribute with the glove. The usual schtick about low stdevs and low replacement level for infielders in the 1970's, combined with a long career and great durability, get him here.

10. Pete Browning, $79,032,749
There's no doubt the man could rake. But I'm not convinced by the "greatness can't take advantage of weaker competition" argument--Fred Dunlap, anyone?--and Browning clearly *did* take advantage of it just about as well as one could by racking up a .403 EqA in 1882. His short career, weaker league, and defensive misadventures--check out that .791 fielding percentage one year--drop him notably below Jones for me and take him right to the brink of Merit.

11. Jimmy Wynn, $77,064,724
I see him as markedly inferior to Reggie Smith, as you can see on my WARP thread--equal hitters, but while Smith was slightly above average in the field for his career and sometimes much more so, Wynn was a bit of a defensive liability, and played 1.4 fewer seasons than Reggie. That said, the low-stdev era gets him here. Not Meritorious for me.

12. Charlie Keller, $76,995,479
I'm giving him war credit at a nudge below his 1942 level of performance, and neither giving him minor league credit nor penalizing him for wartime competiion in '43 and '45, which I'm assuming even out. Undoubtedly a great player, but just not for long enough.

13. Eddie Cicotte, $76,769,843
Clearly the best of the backlog pitchers in my opinion. A legitimate superstar from 1917-19 (he was hit-unlucky in 1918 compared to the two surrounding years), with a bunch of other useful seasons. He'd definitely have made my PHoM if he had kept on pitching and hadn't gotten himself, you know, banned from baseball by throwing the World Series. Kind of a late debut, not counting his cup of coffee with Detroit in 1905--is there any case for minor league credit here?

14. Dave Bancroft, $74,205,167
An all-time great fielder at shortstop, a very strong hitter for the position, and played in the lowest-stdev era of the prewar period. Takes his peer Rabbit to school.

15. Dick Redding, XXXX
I would have Alejandro Oms here at $73,706,621, but since the electorate strongly prefers Redding I'll take a nod to consensus (if that's constitutional, otherwise slot in Oms here). Anyone got any MLE's for him?

Required disclosures:

Nellie Fox
Are you kidding me? $48,766,816...Color me baffled. The guy had a grand total of one All-Star year by my count, maybe two if you include '59. I don't see him even smelling the Hall of the Very Good.

Edd Roush
Similar career value to the 1970s outfielders on my ballot, but in an era that was extremely easy rather than extremely hard to dominate. $68,626,452 using BP discounts for the FL and a touch of credit for 1930.

Rollie Fingers
I'm extremely persuaded by the "chaining" argument that relievers are even less valuable than one would otherwise think (see http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/jonathan-papelbon-and-replacement-level/), and my PHoM will include Wilhelm, Rivera, and possibly Gossage--none other.
   130. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: February 12, 2007 at 12:17 AM (#2295760)
1. Phil Niekro - I had him #1 last year. I think he is extremely underrated.
2. Ted Simmons - Tremendous offensive profile from a catcher. An easy #2.
3. Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen.
4. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove pushes him above Keller this time around.
5. Charlie Keller - Poor man's Kiner. Close with war credit, but Kiner's huge peak was real.
6. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan.
7. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? Underrated by the electorate.
8. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
9. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
10. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player.
11. Don Sutton - The Beckley of pitchers.
12. Frank Howard - Now comes the fun part. As a peak guy (even though I count career as well, I lean peak), I couldn't rationalize him so low, especially behind Beckley.
13. Norm Cash - Raw numbers better than Howard, but Cash was platooned.
14. Chuck Klein - Similar to Howard, but how much of it was the Baker Bowl?
15. Quincy Trouppe - Better than I had been giving him credit for, but he's not Ted Simmons, folks.

16 - 20: Fingers, Perez, Elston Howard, Beckley, Ben Taylor

Disclosures:

Fox does not have enough (any?) bat value.
Wynn is in the 20's, I'm not sold yet.
Roush played in a weak league, missed a lot of time and doesn't really suit my fancy. He's in the 30's.
Concepcion and Cruz are in the low 30's.
Guidry was a favorite of mine, but he's below 60.
Don Baylor doesn't do anything for me.
   131. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 12, 2007 at 01:39 AM (#2295778)
kwarren, here is how I get Stargell as 133 BRAA above R. Smith, rather than 182 BRAA as BP has.

Glossary
XR: player's eXrapolated Runs.
UEQR: BP's run estimation for the player. As you can see, the two agree almost exactly on every player-season.
PF: Park factor
PXR: Player's park-adjusted XR.
OTmXR: How many XR a league-average team would produce in the outs not consumed by the player. Equal to the league XR per out times (the average number of batting outs per team minus the player's batting outs).
RS: How many XR an otherwise league-average team would score with the player in question on it (PXR + OTmXR)
AvRS: Average team XR for the league-season
BRAA: RS-AvRS

Willie Stargell

Year    XR  UEQR  PF  PXR OTmXR    RS  AvRS BRAA
1963    36    37 101   36   573   609   606    3
1964    61    61 100   61   588   649   635   14
1965    82    85 101   82   584   666   644   23
1966    98   101 100   98   606   704   658   46
1967    78    78 100   78   566   644   616   28
1968    62    63  99   62   513   575   557   18
1969   102   106  99  103   593   696   650   46
1970    78    79  99   78   661   739   722   18
1971   119   120  99  120   585   705   640   64
1972    98    98  98  100   555   655   609   47
1973   122   124  98  124   612   736   671   65
1974   105   107  98  107   613   720   670   50
1975    84    84  99   85   620   705   673   32
1976    66    66 101   65   590   655   639   16
1977    38    38 103   37   697   734   720   13
1978    79    78 104   76   608   684   652   32
1979    80    78 104   77   637   713   687   26
1980    34    33 103   33   640   673   664    9
1981     7     7 103    6   418   424   425   -1
1982    10    10 103   10   651   661   660    1
TOTAL 1437  1451 100 1437 11911 13349 12800  549


Reggie Smith

Year    XR  UEQR  PF  PXR OTmXR    RS  AvRS BRAA
1967    71    72 107   66   525   590   585    5
1968    80    81 107   74   496   571   553   18
1969    96    97 106   91   604   695   666   29
1970    98    97 107   92   613   704   680   25
1971   104   101 107   98   565   663   634   29
1972    82    80 106   78   500   578   548   30
1973    84    83 107   79   648   726   698   29
1974   101   101 100  101   612   713   670   43
1975    87    85 101   86   619   705   673   32
1976    55    54  98   56   594   650   639   11
1977   116   116  99  117   662   779   720   59
1978    95    94  99   96   602   698   652   46
1979    40    38  99   40   659   699   687   12
1980    61    59  98   62   631   693   664   29
1982    61    59  99   62   621   683   660   22
TOTAL 1231  1217 103 1197  8950 10147  9730  416


So that's how I get Stargell with 549 BRAA and Reggie Smith with 416, a difference of 133 runs. BP has the gap as 182. What accounts for the 49-run difference? First, there appears to be a real disagreement on run estimation. I (meaning Jim Furtado's eXtrapolated Runs run estimaiton formula) have Smith creating 14 runs more over his career than BP has and Stargell 14 less, for a gap of 28 runs. So more than half the difference just comes down to which run estimator you prefer, XR or EQR. Then, BP upwardly adjusts real runs from this low-scoring era (UEQR) to a 4.5 run per game environment (EQR)--Stargell by 11.0%, and Smith by 8.8%. The 3-percentage point gap exactly agrees with my estimate of the different park factors. So if you multiply my (park-adjusted) BRAA numbers by 1.11, you get 609 BRAA for Stargell and 462 for Smith, increasing the gap by 14 further runs. Add those 14 to the 28, and you have 42 of the 49-run difference accounted for.

In sum, my system thinks the offensive gap (measured in runs) between Stargell and Smith is smaller than BP does due to differences in run estimation and the fact that I am not adjusting for their run environment (which shouldn't matter, since they were contemporaries). I have Stargell as 133 runs better with the bat, and Smith 82 better with the glove, along with a further 54 runs better for playing CF versus Stargell's 1B time. Thus, I have their careers as equally valuable. For an apples-to-apples comparison to BP's numbers, you'd have to multiply my numbers by 1.11, which would make Stargell 148 runs better with the stick and Smith 151 better with the glove (including positional value). BP doesn't think Smith was quite as good a fielder as Win Shares does, accounting for part of the difference; it differs from XR on run estimation, accounting for a bit more; and it doesn't look on playing 1B in the 1970s as harshly as I do, making up for the last bit. That is why I think Smith and Stargell were equally valuable over the course of their careers and BP does not.
   132. SWW Posted: February 12, 2007 at 02:11 AM (#2295788)
This extra week of thinking time has really thrown me for a loop. I shudder to think what it’s like having a whole year.

<u>1994 Ballot</u>
1) Philip Henry Niekro – “Knucksie”
The pre-eminent knuckler in the game. Remarkably successful, considering a career spent entirely with the Braves. Witnessed his 3000th strikeout; a surprisingly low-key event. 89th on Maury Allen Top 100.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. And speaking of second basemen…
4) Roland Glen Fingers
Interestingly, watching Rich Gossage’s unnecessarily-long march to Cooperstown has helped me assess my placement of relief pitchers. I think the weirdness of the position has led this electorate to underrate him, and not entirely unfairly. But Fingers is one of the best at his position, outdistances guys like Sutter, Lyle, and McGraw. Also, DanG calls him “the Grimes of RP’s”, which seems almost calculated to get my attention. 76th on SABR Top 100. 82nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 97th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Ted Lyle Simmons
The best catcher on the ballot, and certainly one of Cooperstown’s most overlooked. If you can help the Brewers succeed, you’ve got a lot going for you.
6) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
7) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
A similar pair. Tony has the edge in Win Shares. Cha Cha shows a greater impact compared to his team and his league. Tony has higher career and higher prime numbers, so right now he gets the one-point advantage. Perez is 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
8) Donald Howard Sutton
Weird. The latest peakless wonder to reach the ballot; tremendous career numbers, and almost Beckley-esque peaks. I might have ranked him higher, had he managed to place among the top 10 in league Win Shares even once. (By comparison, Niekro did it twice, Grimes three times.) Sometimes I think this ranking is too low, other times too high. So this must be right. 99th on Maury Allen Top 100.
9) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. I think another review of pitchers may be in order, but I still believe that the pitchers of this era get short shrift.
10) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
11) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
12) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 93rd on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
13) Edd J Roush
I took a fresh look at center fielders this time around, and I’m not overwhelmingly in favor of any of them. I knocked Hugh Duffy down several spots because of my concerns about his one great season. Roush has more consistency, so he hangs in there.
14) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
An impressive career considering his late start. Not much in the way of peak, but considering how few Win Shares the Senators had to divvy up, he did pretty well.
15) James Sherman Wynn – “The Toy Cannon”
Neck and neck with Duffy, but Jimmy isn’t so reliant on a single season. The 6 Top 10 WS finishes and solid career numbers carry a lot of weight with me, and he compares favorably with Roush. I remain troubled by his relative lack of contemporary acclaim.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Quincy Thomas Trouppe
He is very close to the ballot, especially after making a brief appearance in my Top 15 a few years back. An unusually varied career, but particularly successful behind the plate. If we clear out the backlog some, he will probably return in coming years. I’ve been watching Ken Burns’ Jazz; is that his grandson I keep seeing as a commentator?
Charles Ernest Keller
An enormous peak and the obvious need for war credit are in his favor. But I’m honestly not convinced that his peaks were as strong as those of guys like Kiner and Klein, who each just barely made it onto the bottom of my ballot. Like Dobie Moore, whose election I did not endorse, a career unfairly abbreviated.
   133. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 12, 2007 at 02:45 AM (#2295799)
Whoooopps, I left McGraw off my ballot! Somehow I missed him in the spreadsheet. Also that gets my semi-unconstitutional vote for Redding off my ballot. Revised version....

1. Phil Niekro, $98,693,011 + park adjustment
I wasn't able to get the HR park factors I needed for Niekro, but he'd be over $110M if he had a 110 HR park factor for his career, which seems plausible to me. Eleventy gajillion innings at always good and sometimes excellent rates. A no-brainer.

2. David Concepción, $99,273,491
Given the amount of virtual ink I've spilled on him, it should surprise no one at this point that I have him this high. To rehash briefly: He was a career league average hitter, often notably better in his prime, a plus basestealer, and one of the best fielders ever at the most important defensive position. And he played in an era where replacement shortstops were absolutely putrid and where standard deviations were historically low (a low-scoring, integrated league, many years removed from expansion). Thus, by my criteria--exceeding the positional replacement level of your time by the greatest number of standard deviations--he laps the field. Please save your vitriol for the Concepción thread, or for the thread on my WARP system--I'm happy to argue this one forever.

3. Don Sutton, $100,423,933 - park adjustment
I was stunned to see that my system actually had Sutton and Niekro neck-and-neck. Looking deeper, I see that pitching at the same time in the same league, they threw the same number of innings with the same number of strikeouts and home runs allowed, and while Niekro was slightly better at preventing hits on balls in play and much better at stranding runners, he also walked about 500 more guys, thus making their careers virtually equal. But Niekro clearly gave up more homers pitching in Atlanta than he would have otherwise, while Sutton's HR rate probably benefited slightly from Chávez Ravine (although not as much as one would think--L.A. is much worse for hits on balls in play than it is for HR). I wish I had the real HR park factor, but I'll guess 97 which drops him to $96M. I'm quite surprised that my system is so impressed with Sutton, as it doesn't tend to like low-peak career types--I'll dig into it more if he's not elected this "year;" maybe there's a factor I'm not accounting for. Clearly the low stdevs of the 70s and 80s help him, but they do for Niekro as well.

4. Ted Simmons, $88,778,707 + catcher adjustmnet
One of the best hitters ever to play his position, wasn't a major liability behind the plate, and played in a low-stdev era. I give him a marginal bump over players who score slightly higher due to the added difficulty of accumulating value as a catcher.

5. Reggie Smith, $89,664,325 + unspecified Japan credit
I've outlined my case for Smith on my WARP thread, where I argue he was equal to Stargell (a much better fielder, and played half his career at CF while Stargell had nearly half at 1B). I haven't figured out how much to boost him for his Japan play, but it's not within $1M of how much I boost Simmons for being a catcher, so he stays at #5.

6. Charley Jones, $87,063,177
Appears to have been a truly dominant player in the early years of the NL, particularly in 1879 which seems like one of the great single seasons of the era. I take him well over Browning (after giving two years of blacklist credit) for playing half his career in the NL and for being a good and sometimes superb fielder.

7. John McGraw, $85,462,709
Left him off the last time. My salary estimator is a sucker for peak rate, and even after adjusting for the high standard deviation of his leagues, he was a phenomenally dominant player when he was on the field. An absolute on-base machine with tons of speed at key defensive positions that he often fielded well. I know he missed a lot of time, but he played like an inner-circle Hall of Famer when he did, and someone who was that spectacular deserves to be in my PHoM.

8. Ron Cey, $84,876,414
My argument for him is on the WARP thread as well. In an era that was extremely tough to dominate and where replacement level for infielders was low, he combined All-Star hitting with notably plus defense for a decade.

9. Quincy Trouppe, $82,253,456
Using Dr. Chaleeko's MLE's and assuming he was a league average defensive catcher, I get to $66.6 million. I credit him with playing at an above-average regular but not All-Star level for his five missing years, which puts him just over the in/out line.

10. Graig Nettles, $81,155,205
An unspectacular hitter at an offensive position, but one of the all-time defensive greats--his 1971 in particular is about the theoretical maximum for how much a player can contribute with the glove. The usual schtick about low stdevs and low replacement level for infielders in the 1970's, combined with a long career and great durability, get him here.

11. Pete Browning, $79,032,749
There's no doubt the man could rake. But I'm not convinced by the "greatness can't take advantage of weaker competition" argument--Fred Dunlap, anyone?--and Browning clearly *did* take advantage of it just about as well as one could by racking up a .403 EqA in 1882. His short career, weaker league, and defensive misadventures--check out that .791 fielding percentage one year--drop him notably below Jones for me and take him right to the brink of Merit.

12. Jimmy Wynn, $77,064,724
I see him as markedly inferior to Reggie Smith, as you can see on my WARP thread--equal hitters, but while Smith was slightly above average in the field for his career and sometimes much more so, Wynn was a bit of a defensive liability, and played 1.4 fewer seasons than Reggie. That said, the low-stdev era gets him here. Not Meritorious for me.

13. Charlie Keller, $76,995,479
I'm giving him war credit at a nudge below his 1942 level of performance, and neither giving him minor league credit nor penalizing him for wartime competiion in '43 and '45, which I'm assuming even out. Undoubtedly a great player, but just not for long enough.

14. Eddie Cicotte, $76,769,843
Clearly the best of the backlog pitchers in my opinion. A legitimate superstar from 1917-19 (he was hit-unlucky in 1918 compared to the two surrounding years), with a bunch of other useful seasons. He'd definitely have made my PHoM if he had kept on pitching and hadn't gotten himself, you know, banned from baseball by throwing the World Series. Kind of a late debut, not counting his cup of coffee with Detroit in 1905--is there any case for minor league credit here?

15. Dave Bancroft, $74,205,167
An all-time great fielder at shortstop, a very strong hitter for the position, and played in the lowest-stdev era of the prewar period. Takes his peer Rabbit to school.

Required disclosures:

Nellie Fox
Are you kidding me? $48,766,816...Color me baffled. The guy had a grand total of one All-Star year by my count, maybe two if you include '59. I don't see him even smelling the Hall of the Very Good.

Edd Roush
Similar career value to the 1970s outfielders on my ballot, but in an era that was extremely easy rather than extremely hard to dominate. $68,626,452 using BP discounts for the FL and a touch of credit for 1930.

Rollie Fingers
I'm extremely persuaded by the "chaining" argument that relievers are even less valuable than one would otherwise think (see http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/jonathan-papelbon-and-replacement-level/), and my PHoM will include Wilhelm, Rivera, and possibly Gossage--none other.
   134. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 12, 2007 at 03:13 AM (#2295807)
Further comment on McGraw: I have his 1899 season as the 11th best in post-1893 NL history (behind four years of Barry, two of Wagner, and one each of Hornsby, Morgan, Jennings, and Schmidt...and Schmidt's is a strike year so it probably should be lower). It's #7 on rate alone.
   135. Mike Webber Posted: February 12, 2007 at 05:49 AM (#2295859)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) PHIL NIEKRO - 374 Win Shares, 1 MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Long career, big seasons, well qualified.
2) TED SIMMONS 315 Win Shares, one MVP type season, 10 seasons 20+ Win Shares. – Maybe not one of the top 10 catchers ever, but certainly top 15 in MLB.
3) EDD ROUSH – 314 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Edd is better than Wynn. More career win shares, with out any schedule adjustment. Played his whole career in center field, while Wynn spent 1/3 of his career elsewhere while Ron Davis and Roland Office played center. Significant lead in both black and gray ink – both played in generally poor hitters parks.
4) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a top of the ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 20 player at his position.
5) DON SUTTON 319 Win Shares, zero MVP type season, 5 seasons 20+ Win Shares. – Too much career to ignore, maybe not enough peak to vote for? I can see both sides of the argument.
6) JIMMY WYNN – 305 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Jimmy Wynn is better than Edd. PRO+ is slightly higher. Played in a tougher environment, especially when you add in the Federal League. While both played in poor hitters parks, Wynn’s style was more adversely affected by the Astrodome than Redland/Crosley Field hurt singles hitting Roush.
7) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
8) NELLIE FOX –304 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
9) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
10) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
11) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
12) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
13) QUINCY TROUPPE - slotting him above Thurman Munson in the all time catcher ratings slides him into my ballot. I feel comfortable that he is ahead of Howard, Schang and Lombardi.
14) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
15) KEN SINGLETON Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.


Disclosures:

Charlie Keller – four MVP type seasons, I am not comfortable figuring MVP type seasons for 1944 and 1945. If you give him 30 win share seasons those two years I can see how you have him near the top of the ballot.

Rollie Fingers – not convinced that there is enough leverage available to make his career and peak values big enough to put him on the ballot. I have been thinking about what the minimum amount of career win shares it would take to make my ballot. Koufax has the fewest of any player I have voted for, 194 and he had 3 MVP type seasons.

Newbies – GRAIG NETTLES 321 Win Shares, zero MVP type season, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Right at the cutoff for my ballot. Kind of like Freehan in that he is either the last guy in at his position, or the first guy out.

Davey Concepion – in the group with Fregosi, Campaneris, and Maury Wills, I don’t see how he distinguishes himself from that group, and he doesn’t even have the MVP type seasons that Fregosi and Wills do. I can’t see him ever inching onto my ballot.
   136. Andrew M Posted: February 12, 2007 at 07:24 AM (#2295875)
1994 Ballot

1. (2) Phil Niekro. I was hoping he’d get in last year.

2. (new) Ted Simmons. Good bat, long career for a catcher. I like him just less than Torre and just more than Freehan. Easily above the in/out line.

3. (4) Nellie Fox.
4. (5) Larry Doyle.
Fox was durable (he never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. His 94 OPS+ is OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career.

Doyle had a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. Assessments of his fielding vary from average to poor.

They were very different players, but both Fox and Doyle seem to me to be above the in/out line we have established for 2B.

5. (6) Edd Roush. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, sleeping during games, etc. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 when he may have been the best position player in the NL not named Hornsby (each year he was in the top 4 in the league in OPS+ while playing A-level CF) impresses me more than the other eligible OFs.

6. (8) Charlie Keller. Only 4600 plate appearances. His rate stats benefit from not having a real decline phase, but there aren’t many guys who hit like he did through age 30.

7. (9) Dick Redding. Long career, decent peak. I’m not completely sold on him, but I have him around Jenkins on my ranking of pitchers.

8. (new) Don Sutton. Long career, decent peak. I think I usually had Eppa Rixey about here, and I liked Rixey more than I like Sutton.

9. (13) Quincy Trouppe. I don’t have much of a sense of his defense, but he seems to have been at least average. His hitting ability seems unquestioned.

10. (10) Tommy Bridges. Like Billy Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

11. (11) Bob Johnson. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. Comparable to Medwick and Averill in the lower tier of HoM OFs.

12. (12) Jimmy Wynn. Another unusual, relatively brief, career, but he got on base a ton, hit for power, seems to have been a decent fielder.

13. (13) Tommie Leach. Long career, excellent fielder at both CF and 3B. Hit enough for 3B.

14. (15) George J. Burns. Arguably the best NL OF of the 1910s. Rarely missed a game, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade.

15. (new) Dave Bancroft. Strikes me as a slightly lesser version of Nellie Fox--Great glove, league average hitter, walked a lot. Not as durable as Fox. A Hall of Fame “mistake” that really wasn’t.

Next 20 (more or less in order)
Luis Tiant
Phil Rizzuto
Bucky Walters
Ken Singleton
Rollie Fingers
Alejandro Oms
Orlando Cepeda
George Van Haltren
Jimmy Ryan
Bob Elliott
Vern Stephens
Graig Nettles
Bobby Bonds
Reggie Smith
Herman Long
Sal Bando
Tony Perez
Hugh Duffy
Jake Beckley
Bruce Sutter

Required Disclosures:
Rollie Fingers—Sure he was good, but I don’t see him worthy of induction into the HoM.
   137. Tiboreau Posted: February 12, 2007 at 07:25 AM (#2295877)
1. sp Phil Niekro
2. c Ted Simmons—Did not have a huge peak, but did have a real good prime and nice career. Similar catcher to Joe Torre, hitter first and a catcher second, but spent more time behind the plate over his career than Torre
3. 1b Luke Easter—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
4. cf Alejandro Oms—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
5. lf Charlie Keller—After WWII credit Keller’s peak, while not quite as high, is sufficiently stronger than Kiner’s to slip ahead. King Kong also receives credit for his last year with the Newark Bears.
6. sp Dizzy Dean—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
7. cf Edd Roush—Missed playing time hurts, but still has a real good peak that is a bit overshadowed by WWI. Career puts him ahead of Wynn & Berger, while peak puts him ahead of Ryan & Van Haltren (Pen. Add., excluding pitching WS: Roush, .793; Ryan, .781; Van Haltren, .771).
8. rp Rollie Fingers—The definition of a borderline HoM reliever, IMO. While he did not have the peak of other relief candidates (Hiller, Marshall), he did have a couple excellent years as well as several real good ones, which is important IMO considering the nature of relieving.
9. c Quincy Trouppe—A difficult player to rank for a couple of reasons, both due to his tendency to roam around (leagues and positions). Based on the Dr. C’s, I have him around Elston Howard and Roger Bresnahan, his career longer but his peak a bit lower (another difficulty: playing time). However, considering Trouppe also spent 5 years playing undocumented high quality ball in North Dakota and Minnesota, he ends up closer to Simmons than the other two.
10. cf Jimmy Wynn—One of my favorite ballplayers from before my time, an underrated ballplayer considering era and ballpark who combined speed and patience with surprising power for his stature, I’m happy to see him rate well. A real good peak, although the Toy Cannon’s inconsistency, mixing mediocre seasons with superb, hurts him a bit.
11. sp Bucky Walters—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
12. 3b Al Rosen—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
13. rf Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
14. sp Leroy Matlock—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from '34 to '36. In fact, according to the MLEs, Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s. However, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock a bit below Dizzy.
15. 3b John McGraw—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.

Required Disclosures:
22. 2b Nellie Fox—A very different player from Larry Doyle, but similar in value, IMO. Outside ’57, Fox’s career was solid but does not have enough peak for me to justify a place on this ballot.
   138. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: February 12, 2007 at 07:25 AM (#2295878)
OK, brought everything up to date, and it...didn't change my ballot all that much. Still full of guys from 90 "years" ago. (I exaggerate a bit.) I did look over Dan R's work, although I haven't fully assimilated it. But it might have helped push Reggie Smith and Ron Cey up a bit. To me, the difference between those 2 and Concepcion is that their other numbers make a decent argument by themselves; all of Concepcion's other numbers say "No way."

Lots of interesting new people around. Grich, Simmons and Sutton make my PHoM this year.

1. Phil Niekro (3) The Red Sox are hoping Wakefield can follow his career path. Definitely underrated even though he’s in the HoF. Made my PHoM last year.

(1A Bobby Grich)

2. Ted Simmons (new) Not a lot to argue with here. Quite far ahead of any other catcher on the ballot, played a long time at a high level. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Jimmy Wynn (5) I was a bit surprised to see I alone was his Best Friend. But I'm OK with it. He was a heck of a hitter for a CFer, and had some truly outstanding seasons. His fielding wasn't the best, although WARP finds him more acceptable than WS in that department. Made my PHoM in 1985.

4. Quincy Trouppe (7) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do - they're basically equivalent to Ted Simmons, and I don't think he was that good - but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

5. Don Sutton (new) Really one of the most confounding players I've seen in a while. I really want to put him lower, but I just can't justify it. I know there's absolutely zero peak, but the accumulated value is just too much. If he's the pitching Beckley, well, Beckley's in my PHoM. Makes my PHoM this year.

6. Bill Monroe (6) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. And honestly, outside of having the statistics, I don’t know of any particular advantage Nellie Fox has over him. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. George Van Haltren (8) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

8. Dick Redding (9) After reading Chris's interpretation of the HoF numbers, it does appear I need to pull him back a bit. Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

9. Gavvy Cravath (10) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

10. Tommy Leach (13) Dropped because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

11. Bob Johnson (12) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am. Made my PHoM in 1992.

12. Jake Beckley. (11) I still think his typical season was pretty weak for a HoM candidate, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Made my PHoM in 1987.

13. Bus Clarkson (15) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO. I really need to decide whether I’m going to accept the MLEs and put him in my PHoM, or don’t do so and drop him down. Also looks a lot like Ron Cey, with possibly more defensive value.

14. Reggie Smith (16) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP definitely has him with less fielding value than Wynn.

(14A Clark Griffith, 14B Biz Mackey)

15. Edd Roush (14) I can surprise myself sometimes. I am still leery about giving out holdout credit, but even with the missed time, he does have a pretty good peak by WS. He’s pretty similar to Wynn, and I like Wynn a lot. Made my PHoM in 1992.


16. Norm Cash (17) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism).
17. Ron Cey (new, because I didn't fully place him last year) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
18. Charlie Keller (20) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
19. Phil Rizzuto (19) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
20. Tony Perez (21) This may be too low, but right now I think he’s just behind Cash. Perez (and maybe Concepcion and Puckett) may have an issue in that they’re guys I’ve argued against in HoF arguments since I got into sabermetrics, because the BBWAA (or, for Davey, Joe Morgan) was picking them instead of better candidates like Blyleven, Gossage and Trammell. So it seems instinctively wrong for me to think of them as, effectively “Hall of Fame-worthy”. Something I need to watch out for.
21. Nellie Fox (22) Not quite up to the standard of Doerr/Gordon/Childs, and the HoM is not notably short on 2Bmen.
22. Luis Tiant (18) After the deluge of 1970s-era pitchers, he’ll have to be reevaluated, but he could move up. Caught up on my pitcher evaluation system, and he didn't do so hot.
23. Alejandro Oms (23) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.
24. Bob Elliott (33) Moves up partly for era balance, but he also comes out in the same group as the 70s 3B candidates.
25. Bobby Bonds (24) On further review, I was a bit too bullish on him, but he is quite good.
26. Elston Howard (32) I wasn't giving him enough credit, and still might not be.
27. Rusty Staub (27) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Definitely behind Perez.
(27A Rube Foster, 27B Cool Papa Bell, 27C Max Carey)
28. Bucky Walters (26) I guess I am sort of light on pitchers, but for now I can’t put him any higher due to wartime.
(28A Sam Thompson, 28B Ralph Kiner, 28C Richie Ashburn)
29. Vern Stephens (28) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
30. Charley Jones (34) Even with the missed time credit, there's just not quite enough to make the ballot.

31. Ken Singleton (29) Another stinkin' 70s OF candidate. Close in value to Bonds, although a very different type of player.
32. Sal Bando (25) A good hitter for a 3Bman, but doesn’t have the peak value of Cey.
33. Ben Taylor
34. Dizzy Dean (30) All of a sudden, this just felt right. I am due to take another long look at the pitching candidates again.
35. Orlando Cepeda
36. Lou Brock
(36A Hughie Jennings, 36B George Sisler)
37. Rollie Fingers (37) First, I’m not convinced he’s really ahead of all the other reliever candidates, and second, I’m not convinced that he would be worth induction even if he was.
38. Pete Browning
39. Don Newcombe
40. Tony Lazzeri

42. Jose Cruz, 45. Graig Nettles, 54. Dave Concepcion, 65. Bruce Sutter.
   139. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 12, 2007 at 12:46 PM (#2295897)
43 ballots tallied up to this point.

Still missing ballots from: Jim Sp, Eric C, James Newburg, Don F, DavidFoss, mulder and scully, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, KJOK, the Commish, fra paolo, jwinfrey, Craig K., rdfc, Michael Bass, Carl Goetz, NeverJustaGame and dzop.

Since Vaux hasn't voted in the past five elections, he has been removed from the list.
   140. EricC Posted: February 12, 2007 at 02:36 PM (#2295912)
1994 ballot.

1. Phil Niekro Only pitcher to win 200 games after his 35th birthday; I'd vote this as one of the most amazing feats in baseball history. (The vote is on the totally of his record of course).

2. Don Sutton I do adjust for the fact that it was easy to put up large amounts of innings during his time, but not so much that the HoF pitchers from this era fail to appear as at least middle-tier HoMers.

3. Ted Simmons A little ahead of Torre and Freehan in my system.

4. Wally Schang Generally all-star level of play at C 1913-1920; one of better catchers for most of long career afterwards; career leader in WS among C upon retirement. Nearly at the Freehan/Torre/Schang level, when one takes into account that in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards.

5. Charlie Keller Consistent all-star to MVP level of play at corner OF 1939-1947, with a peak that looks as high and more sustained to me than Kiner's did. Believe that his peak would have been maintained during WWII and thus give war credit at this level.

6. Nellie Fox Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to some peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s IF, helps to boost his chance of eventual election. For those who don't see it, perhaps you aren't considering his "A" defense?

7. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). Maybe I should call all the bats that crowd the bottom half of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates".

8. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

9. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

10. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

11. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer ( somebody has to be the top unelected player), but calls for an explanation for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way; (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

12. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

13. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

14. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers (which is near Ted Simmons level- wonder how Ted will do? Note added in proof: we'll know shortly), but I rate catchers higher than most.

15. Jimmy Wynn Multiple years of all-star quality CF play. Sabermetric poster child- 0.250 BA, but played a defensive position, had a 0.400ish secondary average, and played in a pitcher's era.

Edd Roush was the 43rd greatest ML CF and 428th greatest ML player.

Fingers looks to me like a "career reliever" candidate, like Lee Smith. This type does not come out highly in my system, though I can see the argument for having more relievers than I'm likely to put in my PHoM.

Trouppe's record doesn't look any more impressive to me than that of Bruce Petway or Ted Radcliffe.

Concepcion almost makes my ballot. Nettles is Hall of the Very Good. Sutter seems to be left off the list of prominent new candidates, but, in any case, does not look any better to me than several previous relief pitchers who didn't happen to be used almost exclusively in save situations.
   141. Esteban Rivera Posted: February 12, 2007 at 02:43 PM (#2295917)
1994 Ballot:

1. Phil Niekro – Last year’s holdover only because of the number of worthy candidates. Impressive length with quality.

2. Don Sutton – Above average to very good/great quality over that length of innings pitched has tremendous value for a pitcher. Beats out all other pitchers but Niekro.

3. Ted Simmons – Simba hits his way to an elect-me spot.

4. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

6. Edd Roush – Appears to be an error of omission. With considerations for hold out credit.

7. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good.

8. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

9. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

10. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

11. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

13. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

14. Rollie Fingers – Given some post-season credit. His career taken all together is around the bubble.

15. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

16. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

17. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

18. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

19. Quincey Trouppe – All evidence points to him being a good to great hitter for his position and a solid if not good catcher. Works for me

20. Gavvy Cravath – One of the enigmas in terms of career interpretation. His career in the majors combined with my interpretation of the other information places him here.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Jimmy Wynn – In my top 30.

Charlie Keller – Gets some credit but not enough to overcome the playing time issues to get him on my ballot.
   142. Ken Fischer Posted: February 12, 2007 at 02:46 PM (#2295922)
1994 Ballot

1-Phil Niekro 374 WS
Didn’t end as badly as Steve Carlton…but why was pitching last game for the Braves necessary?? He has a 15.00 ERA for the appearance. The Braves had some bad teams back in the 70s.

2-Ted Simmons 315 WS
Simmons was one of the best hitting catchers in baseball history. He always takes a hit on his defense. Depending on who you believe he was anywhere from poor to above average behind the plate. He ranks in my top 15 catchers all-time.

3-Don Sutton 319 WS
Don played on good Dodgers teams and some not-so-good Dodgers teams. He was dependable regardless. This is a longevity vote.

4-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
How can we forget that 1885 season!

7-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

8-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Rollie Fingers 188 WS
Best reliever to come on the ballot in awhile. Hard to judge…he may move up next time.

12-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

13-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

14-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

15-Pete Browning 225 WS
The Players League year shows he was the real deal.

Fox, Wynn, Trouppe and Keller aren’t in my top 15 but they are now in the top 35.
   143. DavidFoss Posted: February 12, 2007 at 04:43 PM (#2295983)
1994 Ballot

1. Phil Niekro (4) -- Deserves to be remembered better. Greatness masked by the launching pad and the knuckler. Its tough for knucklers to remain effective for more than 1000IP (let alone 5400!)
2. Ted Simmons (ne) -- I like guys who can hit and Simmons could hit!
3. Larry Doyle (5) -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
4. Don Sutton (ne) -- Just too much career value there -- even for this peak voter.
5. John McGraw (6) -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
6. Gavvy Cravath (7) -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
7. Dick Redding (8) -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play.
8. Roger Bresnahan (9) -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
9. Charlie Keller (10) -- With war credit, his peak ranks right up with guys like Kiner. Will he get into the HOM before the great flood of expansion era hitters clogs the backlog?
10. Charley Jones (11) -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
11. Al Rosen (12) -- For five years, he was one of the greatest hitting 3B of all time.
12. Pete Browning (13) -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.
13. Bob Elliott (14) -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
14. Mickey Welch (15) -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
15. Frank Chance (nr) -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
16-20. Roush, Fingers, Lombardi, Fox, BJohnson,
21-25. Beckley, Trouppe, FHoward, Cash, Leach,
26-30. Nettles, Bando, JWynn, Cepeda, Cey,
31. Singleton, Brock, Staub
   144. mulder & scully Posted: February 12, 2007 at 09:02 PM (#2296192)
Used to be Kelly in SD

1994 Ballot: Not much movement this year. Nettles, Concepcion, Fingers to get a reeval next “year.”

To recap my balloting:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.

PHOM: 1994: Ted Simmons, I don’t know, I don’t know
PHOM: 1993: Steve Carlton, Phil Niekro, Reggie Jackson
PHOM: 1992: Tom Seaver and Bobby Grich
PHOM: 1991: Rod Carew, Lou Boudreau, Al Spalding
PHOM: 1990: Joe Morgan, Jim Palmer, Ferguson Jenkins

1. Phil Niekro (PHOM 1993): I like him fifth out of the big 70’s pitchers. Way over qualified.
All-Star (top 4 in 8 team league, 5 in ten, 6 in 12): 1967, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1978, 1979,
Rank Lg/Majors: 3rd/4th t, 4th t/5th t, 5th t/8th t, 4th t/10th t (with many), 1st/3rd, 1st t/6th t (with 3 others), 1st/2nd, 1st/1st t or 2nd t depending on how you count relievers,

2. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): The weight of the evidence.

3. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906): The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1980, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
Top 10 position player in 1876, 1878, 1879, 1883, 1884, 1885. Eleventh in 1877. Pro-rated 10th or 11th after blacklisted in 1880. Blacklisted in 1881 and 1882. Best player in 1884, top 4 in 1878, 1879 and 1885.

4. Charlie Keller (PHOM 1957): MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979. Top 10 position player in AL in 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, and 1946. If you pro-rate his 1945 season, he is top 10 that year also. Ranks: 10th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th. 1945 pro-rated he comes out the best position player along with Greenberg.

5. Quincy Troupe (PHOM 1960): A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 1980.

6. Ted Simmons (PHOM 1994): A great hitting catcher whose hitting numbers don’t look as impressive as they should because of the era and the park where he played. Trouppe’s numbers with 3 years of barnstorming credit and Simmons’ (not adjusted down to 154 game seasons): Career win shares: T: 312, S: 319
Best 3 straight years: T: 80, S: 78
Best 7 years: T: 176, S: 180
Per “year”: T: 24, S: 21
He wasn’t a great defensive catcher, it’s true. But, for 9 years you could count on him being one of the top 2 catchers every year except for 1979 when he missed 30 games. Works for me.
Top 15 in league in 1972, 1973, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1980.
Rank in league/majors: 14th t/25th t, 10th t/14th t, 4th t/11th t, 7th t/11th t, 2nd t/4th t, 15th t/30th t
Rank as catcher (LG): 1972: 2nd in league to Bench
1973: 2nd to Ferguson (29 to 28)
1974: 2nd to Bench (34 to 21)
1975: 2nd to Bench (30 to 28)
1976: 1st
1977: 1st
1978: 1st
1980: 2nd to Carter (30-22)

Rank as catcher (MLB): 1972: 3rd in majors to Bench and Fisk.
1973: 2nd
1974: 2nd
1975: 2nd or 3rd depending on how Tenace is counted (32)
1976: 2nd to Munson (24-20)
1977: 2nd to Fisk (30-28)
1978: 2nd to Fisk (31-30)
1980: 2nd to Carter (30-22)

7. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921): Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

8. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919): A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

9. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958): Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

10. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966): Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.
   145. mulder & scully Posted: February 12, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2296195)
11. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979): Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis.

12. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942): Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906.

13. Jimmy Wynn (PHOM 1984): 4 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors. Best centerfielder eligible from Mays until ... Dale Murphy? Five years after Griffey, Jr. retires? Top 10 in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, and 1974. 9th, 3rd, 4th, 11th, 6th, 4th.

14. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

15. Roush (PHOM 1940): 3 MVP type years, excellent defense. Top 10 in NL in 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1923, 1925, 1926. 4th t/9th t, 5th t/11th t, 1st/2nd, 2nd/5th, 3rd t/8th t, 9th/15th t, 9th t/22nd t.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1917-20, 1923. Top 3 in majors in 1919, 1920.

16. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964): Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.

17. Rollie Fingers: I’m still not sure about him. Without him, the A’s don’t win at least one World Series. He was very durable for a very long time. He didn’t have the peak of a Gossage or a Hiller or a Sutter. Could move up or down in near future.

18. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985): Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

19: Cooper, Wilbur (PHOM 1985): He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

20: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961): Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

21. Don Newcombe: Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starters in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.

22. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987): I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1906, 1908. Rank in league/majors: 5th/8th, 10th/24th, 7th/11th, 8th/15th. Best catcher in majors in 1905, 1906, 1908. Best centerfielder in majors 1903.

23. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

24. Jack Fournier: Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career.

25. Frank Howard: Just slightly below the left field knot at 14/16/18 and Billy Williams. Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.
   146. mulder & scully Posted: February 12, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2296196)
26. Luke Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.

27. Don Sutton: Low peak and low win shares per “season” makes this a difficult placing. Very consistent for very long. I am not a Rixey, Ruffing, nor Faber fan and I did not think highly of Wynn though he is PHOM. Rank on team: ¾, 4/4, 2/4, ¾, 2/4, ¼ (1971), ¼ (1972), ¼ (1973), 3/5 (1974 including Marshall), ¾, 2/4 (1976 tied with Hough), 3/5, 5/5, 3/5, 2/5, 3/5, 3/5, 2/5 (1983 behind 2 relief pitchers also), 1/5 (1984 team last in league), 1/? (1985 A’s, 9 ws), ¾?, 3/5.
Among the 1970’s pitch forever pitchers, he is 8th in career win shares, only Reuschel and John had lower peaks and only Reuschel and John had lower prime scores. At this point, I cannot place him on my ballot.
All-Star: Top 4 in 8 team league, 6 in 12: 1972, 1973, 1976, 1980, (7th in 1971)
Rank (Lg/Majors): 3rd/7th t, 2nd/8th (or 3rd/10th depending on if you include relievers), 5th t/10th t (with 4 others), 3rd t/7th.

28. Herman Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889

29. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. May need to do a recall election...

30. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

31. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

32. Graig Nettles: A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978

33. Orlando Cepeda: A little ahead of Cash based on in-season durability. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
Top 10/12/15 in league (up to 62/62-68/69 - ): 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1967
Rank in league: 9th t/19th t, 6th/8th, 6th/11th t, 7th t/11th t, 7th/7th, 3rd/5th, (11th in 1958)
Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. Best LF in 1960.

34. Vern Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense. The AL in the 1940s had the following shortstops: Boudreau, Appling, Rizzuto, Joost, and Pesky. Pretty good grouping.
Top 10 in league in 1944, 1945, 1948, 1949 (11th 1943, 1947, 13th in 1950)
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd, 3rd/9th t, 9th t/14th t, 3rd/6th t.
Best shortstop in league in 1944, 1945. 2nd to HoMer Boudreau in 1943, to Joost in 1949, to Rizzuto in 1950 (by far), 3rd to Boudreau and Joost in 1948. In majors in 1944, 1945.

35. Elston Howard: I kept overlooking him. I don’t know what to do about balancing his actual value to the team compared with his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

36. Dave Concepcion:
Top 15 in league in 1974, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1981
Rank in league/majors: 13th t/19th t, 15th t/31st t, 12th t/20th t, 14th t/28th t, 4th/9th t,
Best Shortstop in league in 1974, 1976, 1978, (2nd in 1979 by 1), 1980, 1981.
In majors in 1974, 1976 t, 1978, (2nd in 1979 by 1), 1981.

37. Sal Bando: A conservative placement. There are so many good thirdbasemen in this era that I want to be careful. Could move up if I see a good enough argument. His peak is very good, his prime is good but his career is so-so as are his per-year numbers.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1978
Rank in league/majors: 3rd/6th t, 3rd t/9th t, 12th t/25th t, 2nd t/6th t, 12th t/24th t, 11th t/28ht t.
Top 3b in league in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973. In majors in 1969, 1972, 1973.

38. Dizzy Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there. Hello, Al Rosen.
Top 5 starters in league in 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/6th, 5th/9th, 1st/1st, 1st/2nd, 2nd/2nd

39. Wally Berger: Not enough career for me. Reevaluated. Excellent peak, 5 other all-star years after I give one year of MLE credit for 1929.
Top 10 in league in 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1936.
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/21st t, 1st/6th, 6th/14th, 1st/2nd t, 3rd/5th t, 10th t/21st t (13th in 1935).
Top 3 OF in league: 1931, 1933, 1934 and NL best CF in 1932 (5th overall). In majors 1931, 1933, 1934.

40. John McGraw: Just not healthy enough. After having looked at the following McGraw gets a move up.
Top 10 (15 from 92-99) in league: 1893, 1894, 1898, 1899
Rank in league/majors: 14th t, 5th t, 5th, 2nd, (16th in 1895 but 4th among non-OF, 17th in 1897 but 6th among non-OF, 11th in 1900 but 2nd among non-OF)
Best in league at position, 3rd base: 1899, 1900. In majors in 1899, 1900.
   147. mulder & scully Posted: February 12, 2007 at 09:06 PM (#2296198)
41. Norm Cash: I had been overrating him. I did not look close enough at how he compared to other 60s players. Top 10 in league only 4 times: 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966. Adjusting for additional teams only adds 1971. 2nd/2nd, 10th t/27th t, 10th t/25th t, 6th/13th, 13th w/24 (71).
Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Best in majors in 1961. Even with the missed games.

42. Nellie Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
Top 10 in league in 1952, 1954, 1955, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960 (11th in 1951, 1953): .
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/24th t, 8th t/14th t, 5th/14th t, 3rd/6th, 10th t/17th t, 1st t/5th t, 9th t/22nd t,
Best 2b in league in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1960. In majors in 1955, 1957, 1959, 1960 t.

43. Wally Schang: I see the arguments. 6 times top 10 in OBP, 4 times in SLG and OPS, 5 times in OPS+.
Never in top 10 players in league because of playing time.
Best catcher in league in 1913, 1914, 1919, 1921. In majors in 1914, 1919, 1921.

44. Bob Elliott: I need to review his candidacy. Reviewed Boyer and I like Elliott better.
Top 10 in league in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950.
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/14th t, 8th t/13th t, 3rd/5th, 4th/8th, 10th t/20th t, 7th t/12th t. (12th in 1942)
Best 3rd baseman in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950. In majors in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948 and virtual ties in 1949, 1950.
Very little difference for me between Bando, McGraw, Elliott, Boyer, Lyons, and Williamson.

45. Jack Stivetts: 4th best pitcher in the 1890s. Trouble was he pitched right as the distance changed and he was worked to death to start his career.
Top 4 (6 in 12 team era) in league: 1890, 1891, 1892, 1894
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/9th (even with a 15% discount), 1st/2nd (no discount) or 4th (20% discount), 1st, 8th in 1893, 6th, 8th in 1896.

46. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939): Moved down in comparison with Mike Tiernan. Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
Top 10 in league (top 15 in 12 team era) in 1890, 1891, 1894, 1895, 1896, 1897, 1898 (11th t in 1889 and 1900)
Rank in league/majors: combination pitcher/outfielder ranked 5th best player with all pitchers ahead of him, 5th/7th t, 11th t, 13th t, 12th, 9th t, 6th t.
Top 3 in outfielders in league(top 5 in 12-team era) in 1898. In majors in 1898.

47. Mike Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
Top 10 (15 from 1892-1899) in league in 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1895, 1896, 1897 .
Rank in league/majors: 7th/9th, 1st t/3rd t, 4th t/8th t, 3rd t/7th t, 13th, 8th, 11th.
Top 3 OF or top 5 in 12-team league: 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1896. Top 3/5 in majors: 1889, 1890, 1891, 1896.

48. Luis Tiant: A lot of pitchers put up great numbers in the 60s and 70s. Tiant doesn’t match them. Hall of Very Good. 3 times a major league all-star is good.
Top 5 starter (61-68) top 6 (69- ) in league: 1968, 1974, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd, 2nd/2nd, 5th/5th (7th t in 1967, 7th t in 1972, 9th t in 1973)

49. Sal Maglie: Credit for Mexican League helps

50. Carl Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding, by Chris J’s RSI and Defensive support measures. Too bad he doesn’t have an “average” aging pattern in 1922, 1923, and 1925.
Top 5 starters in league in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1920, 1921.
Rank in league/majors: 5th t/9th t, 4th/5th, 4th/5th t, 3rd t/6th t, 2nd/2nd

51. Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw

52. George Scales: Pretty good player. Will probably move up after I adjust for Hall of Fame’s new numbers.

53. Hippo Vaughn: Excellent peak, but not enough career in the majors.
Top 5 starters in league in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920
Rank in league/majors: 3rd t/7th t, 3rd/8th, 1st/4th, 1st/1st (I don’t count Cicotte’s year), 4th/11th t (plus an 8th in the AL in 1910 and NL in 1915)

54. Thurman Munson: Career wasn’t long enough and peak wasn’t high enough. There were a lot of excellent catcher years/careers in the 1970s: Bench/Fisk/Tenace/Simmons. Munson is definitely Hall of Very Good.
Top 15 in league in 1970, 1973, 1975, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 12th/25th t, 9th t/22nd t, 12th t/27th t, 12th t/24th t.
Top C in league: 1970, 1973, 1976. In majors: 1976.

55. Gene Tenace:
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/18th t, 13th t/31st t, 2nd/5th, 10th t/20th t, 14th t/28th t, (19th in 1976, 1978)
Best catcher in league in 1975 (2nd in league in 1977 and 1979). In majors in 1975.
Best first baseman in league in (2nd in 1973).

56. Lon Warneke: A good peak, but not as high as Dean and his career is not long enough.
Top 5 starters in league in 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935
Rank in league/majors: 1st/2nd, 2nd t/2nd t, 3rd/6th, 5th t/9th t (plus a 6th in 1940 and 1941.

57. Bus Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.

58. Urban Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
Top 5 starters in league in (1920), 1921, 1922, 1923, 1926
Rank in league/majors: 6th/10th, 3rd/3rd, 2nd/2nd, 2nd t/5th t, 4th/10th t (plus an 8th in 1924, a 9th in 1925

59. Fielder Jones: Excellent defender, 7 Gold Gloves by Win Shares. Quit after 1908 because Comiskey was such an ass with which to deal.
Top 10 in league: 1901, 1902, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/16th t, 5th t/9th t, 3rd t/7th t, 7th/14th, 8th/13th, 4th t/5th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1901, 1902, 1905, 1906, 1908. In majors in 1908.

60. Denny Lyons:
Top 10 in league in 1887, 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893.
Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 9th t/24th t, 6th t/10th t, 2nd/5th t (no reduction) or 16th (with 15% reduction), 8th t/between 16th and 20th, 12th t.
Best 3rd baseman in league in 1887, 1890, 1891. In majors in 1887.
   148. mulder & scully Posted: February 12, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2296200)
61. Ed Williamson:
Top 10 in league in 1879, 1882, 1884, 1885.
Rank in league/majors: 4th, 8th t/10th t, 9th t/20th t, 9th/16th, (12th in 1881 but 5th among non-OF)
Best 3rd baseman in 1879 (King Kelly is Utility with his 33 g at 3rd, 29 OF, and 21 C), 1882. In majors in 1879, 1882.

62: Bobby Bonds: 4 very good years is not enough, especially considering how many good outfielders there are in the late 60s/early 70s. Very good peak, but many outfielders had better in that era.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1977. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/11th t, 4th/8th, 4th/5th t, 14th t/25th t, 5th t/6th t, 11th t/25th t, 14th t/25th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1970, 1971, 1973. In majors in 1970, 1971.

and

Rusty Staub: A great run in his 20s gets him in the conversation. But the injury in 1972 when he was on pace for 30-32 win share season and the loss of power when he turned 29 derailed a HoM career. There are a lot of almost, not quite outfielders in the 1970s.
Top 15 in league in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/14th t, 10th t/15th t, 11th t/18th t, 5th/10th t, 4th/5th t, 15th t/30th t, 13th t/21st t, 5th/12th.
Top 3 outfielder in Lg: 1970, 1971
In majors in 1970 (tied with many), 1971.

Not in top 60:
Jose Cruz: Opposite of Perez and Staub. Fantastic after age 28, but very little career before. A very good prime. Staub’s is longer. Cruz has the slightly better peak. Almost but not quite. Also, left field has higher standards than rightfield throughout history.
Top 15 in league in 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1984, (1976, 1981, 1 away from 15th).
Rank in league/majors: 12th t/25th t, 9th t/16th t, 6th t/13th t, 8th t/19th t, 4th/8th t, 7th/9th.
Best 3 Of in Lg: 1979, 1980, 1983.
In majors in 1983.

Tony Perez: An excellent start toward a HoM career up through 1973, age 31. Then pfffft. Never within 30 OPS+ points in regular play again.
Top 15 in league in 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973.
Rank in league/majors: 14th/23rd t, 5th/11th, 2nd/4th, 10th t/20th, 4th/4th t,
Best 3rd Base in Lg: 1969, 1970. In majors in 1970, (2nd to Santo by 3 in 1968), (3rd to Bando, Killebrew in 1969).
Best 1st B in Lg: 1973, Best in majors: 1973

Bruce Sutter:
Not that impressed. Not sure why.
   149. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 12, 2007 at 09:26 PM (#2296214)
A lot of people out there seem to have home made systems that incorporate their particular biases regarding peak versus longevity, relief pitchers and leverage, war time credit, varying talent pools, strength of leagues etc.

Well, you know the old saying. Put 1000 stat monkeys in a room with spreadsheets, and you'll eventually get a Hall of Merit. ; )

Seriously, start casting ballots (and defending them!) see whether or not you find the process more challenging than you may have thought.

Or maybe it's not challenging, and I'm just a little foggy. That's very possible. ; )
   150. sunnyday2 Posted: February 12, 2007 at 09:39 PM (#2296232)
Eric, get rid of that home made system and everything will be fine.
   151. Carl G Posted: February 12, 2007 at 10:16 PM (#2296253)
1)Phil Niekro- Have Knucksie and Carlton virtually deadlocked. Less poor seasons made me go with Niekro.
2)Ted Simmons- Love Ted's peak and a strong career for a catcher.
3)Quincy Trouppe- Bst Catcher available right now, though I like Simmons alot next year.
4)Jimmy Wynn- Good strong peak masked by his park and era. In the running for most underrated ever.
5)Don Sutton- One of the great career guys.
6)Rollie Fingers- One of the finest relievers in the game for quite awhile. It should be disclosed that I was 6 yrs old in Milwaukee in 1981 and Fingers was my favorite player his whole tenure with the Brewers.
7)Charlie Keller- King Kong was great when he was in the lineup
8)Nellie Fox- Good Fielder and good OBP guy. Had some good offensive seasons for a 2B
9)Edd Roush- Strong peak an career for a good CF. My gut still says 'in'
10)Roger Bresnahan- I've always been a Bresnahan fan. Solid versatile player.
11)Bob Johnson- Love that peak. Needed more career to get a higher rank
12)Pete Browning- Still Love the Louisville Slugger's case.
13)Ron Cey- Strongest pure 3B until Schmidt and Brett come along.
14)Cannonball Dick Redding- Best of the rest pitcher wise and I'm short on pitchers in my rankings right now.
15)Sal Bando- Not a super long career, but peaked well. Bill James rates him the 10th best 3B of all time and I'm inclined to agree.

Close-Nettles, Concepcion, Cepeda, Garvey, Beckley,Van Haltren, Klein, Dean, Cravath, Duffy, Walters, and Tiant.
   152. Lemon Curry? Posted: February 12, 2007 at 10:17 PM (#2296255)
"It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times"?? you stupid monkey!

(Sorry, I couldn't resist :-))
   153. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: February 12, 2007 at 10:37 PM (#2296275)
My ballot is VERY similar to Dan R.'s, since I am very much on board with his results. However there are some changes.

1. Phil Niekro-Never an all-timer with the rate stats, but had absurd durability relative to league

2. Charlie Keller-Appropriately credited, he's a sure thing HOM.

3. Don Sutton-Despite the rep as a long-career, low peaker, had some excellent years; not the Beckley of pitchers

4. David Concepción- Sold

5. Ted Simmons-Great hitter, and a great peak.

6. John McGraw-Astonishing peak, Dan's STDEV work brings out how extraordinary McGraw was.

7. Reggie Smith-Dan's work convinces me of his merit. Not as peaky as I'd like, but clearly more valuble than any player that follows (and maybe even some before...)

8. Ron Cey
9. Graig Nettles- Two underrated 70's 3B's. Better than Boyer, fer sure.

10. Jimmy Wynn-Gets docked for his non-consecutive peak. However, his 3 great years were pretty freakin awesome, and he played in the low stdev 70's.

11. Dave Bancroft-Dan sold me. Better than the established baseline for SS in the HOM.

12. Quincy Trouppe-On the edge. How much can we assume?


13. Dizzy Dean- All-time great pitching peak.

14. Rollie Fingers- I'm inclined to believe that if the baseball world valued a player highly, then the default assumption should be that the player was very valuble until it can be conclusively shown that he's not. IMO, the case against Fingers hasn't reached that level of persuasion.

15. Edd Roush- The $ added system has him slightly below the in/out line, but I like the peak and the all-around play.
------------------
Disclosures:
Fox- Sucked.
   154. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 12, 2007 at 11:07 PM (#2296310)
Thanks for the shoutouts, 'zop. I'm glad to see someone's listening!
   155. Jim Sp Posted: February 12, 2007 at 11:13 PM (#2296316)
1) Niekro--I rate him behind Carlton, Perry, and Palmer, but ahead of Roberts and Jenkins. Overwhelmingly qualified for the HoM.
2) Ted Simmons--Easily qualified for HoM, big gap between here and the pack.
3) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
4) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. A 94 OPS+ is strong for a grade A second baseman, compare Mazeroski at 84. 1957 and 1959 are great peak seasons (11.8 and 9.8 warp3). 1951-1960 is a high sustained prime. PHoM in 1970.
5) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
6) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders.
7) Keller--There’s no doubt he was one of the great hitters when healthy, 152 career OPS+ is #28 all time. An MVP type season every year from 1940-46 when not at war. That’s enough prime for me, even without longevity. PHoM 1985.
8) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat.
9) Perez--Interesting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there.
10) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
11) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
12) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. I assume Cey and Elliott’s lack of support is a bad omen for Nettles, Buddy Bell, and Ventura.
13) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
14) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987. In 1965 had a MVP type season completely obscured by the Astrodome and era. Best years were not consecutive but impressive: 11.0, 10.3, 9.8, 9.5, 9.0, 8.1, 7.4 by warp3.
15) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.
16) Fingers--ERA+ not impressive, but by other measures better.
17) Trouppe--PHoM 1988.
18) Dick Redding--PHoM 1985.

Roush – #71 with no extra credit. I suppose if I gave him every conceivable credit for holding out he’d make it, but I’m not there yet.
Guidry #34, Cruz #53, Sutton #62, Sutter #74.
Sutton’s peak is not strong. Better than Rixey ain’t enough for me.
I like Fingers a little better than Sutter.
   156. Michael Bass Posted: February 13, 2007 at 12:24 AM (#2296380)
I use WARP3 as my primary tool, with mental adjustments to downgrade (not eliminate, but downgrade) the timeline. I prefer gloves with moderate bats to bats with terrible gloves; both Stargell and Killebrew are not in my PHOM, though they're in the queue. I'm peak-oriented, but my system is much more friendly to long career candidates than it once was, when those long careers stand out, or have an extended prime, if not an outstanding peaks.

PHOM this year is Simmons, Reggie, and Concepcion


1. Phil Niekro (PHOM 1993) - I think he has literally every single thing over Carlton except for "biggest single year". The thing is that Carlton's "biggest year" is so amazing that it draws many of his measures (pure peak value, 3 year peak) above Niekro's, thus making it close. Niekro did not have a 1972, but he was far more consistent than was Carlton, and played at a very high level for a very long time. Comfortable #1 on this ballot, with the others gone.

2. Ted Simmons (PHOM 1994) - With his hitting as a catcher, he'd have to be Ernie Lombardi or worse behind the plate to not be up here. He was a fine, if unspecial defensive catcher, so he is a clear #2 in this dreck.

3. Fred Dunlap (PHOM 1926) - I'm close to alone on this one. My case for him is simple, he was one of baseball's best players for 6 straight years. Win shares underrates him, just as it overrates pitchers from the era. Very good hitter, great fielder from an era when fielding meant more.

4. Bob Elliot (PHOM 1968) - Never understood the lack of love for him. I have always viewed him as very close, just short of Stan Hack. This time around, I liked Hack a lot, so Elliot slots in very highly, as we're real deep into the backlog at this point.

5. Bob Johnson (PHOM 1971) - Maybe the foremost all-prime career. Gets no minor league credit despite his late start (it was investigated at the time, he was just a late bloomer). Like Elliot takes a slight minus from his raw stats for the inflated 44-45 years when they were playing with a bunch of AA guys. Clockwork hitter for 12 of his 13 years.

6. Phil Rizzuto (PHOM 1972) - Scooter is the first pure glove man on my ballot; and outstanding shortstop with an average bat (MVP level the year he was more than an average bat). Add in 3 years of war credit (which came right in the middle of his best years), and you get him to this spot.

7. Quincy Trouppe (PHOM 1973) - All evidence points to a very strong bat for a catcher. He would have to be a horrible fielder to not make my ballot given what I believe of his bat, and there's no evidence he was horrible; probably a solid C.

8. Rabbit Maranville (PHOM 1976) - Rizzuto for an earlier generation. Longer career (gets nearly a year of war credit), doesn't have the one year peak of Rizzuto, and was a moderately worse hitter. But an amazing fielder forever. I'll be a big Ozzie supporter, and this guy was Ozzie-lite.

9. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1979) - Had a very nice peak just before the war, and some shoulder seasons before that and during the war.

10. Dick Redding (PHOM 1981) - Had a nice career length, and the numbers indicate a strong peak as well. Not long enough career or high enough peak to go higher than this, but enough of both to land here.

11. Dave Concepcion (PHOM 1994) - Well, I'm voting for Rizzuto and Maranville, so this vote should shock no one. Good career value, plenty of prime value, lacks Rizzuto's peak or Maranville's career, and is thus 3rd of the 3.

12. Urban Shocker (PHOM 1942) - Nice prime, nice 1920-1923 peak, all in the strong league at the time.

13. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1986) - Long career, wrong league, but some nice seasons along the way. He's in my view what Eppa Rixey (who I didn't like) was to most other people. Not overly enthused by him, or anyone else on this portion of the ballot (after Trouppe I'd say), but we're deep into the backlog, both for PHOM purposes and for my ballot.

14. Dave Bancroft (PHOM 1987) - Rizzuto-esque candidate. A little more consistent bat, not quite the glove, though still real good with it. Long career, plenty of prime.

15. Bill Monroe (PHOM 1930) - Largely forgotten 2B from the first documented days of the Negro Leagues, was a solid glove a pretty good bat for a long time. In retrospect, wish we'd centered on him, rather than Grant, about whom there was very little evidence and a whole lot of guesswork.

16. Thurman Munson (PHOM 1987) - Plenty of defense, plenty of hitting, durable.
17. Jake Beckley (PHOM 1931) - Yeah, I'll never hear the end of this one, but his career stands out for the era, even if he's still peakless.
18. Dizzy Dean (PHOM 1988) - I wonder how many ballots have Beckley and Dean side by side. Anyway, all peak, obviously.
19. Lave Cross (PHOM 1988) - Back to the career, plus a touch of catching credit (even when not catching, he played a tough position and played it well).


Other top 10 returnees


23. Nellie Fox - Basically Rizzuto, but at 2B rather than SS, and the difference hurts on a ballot this bunched up.
21. Jimmy Wynn - Nice hitter, career's a little short considering he's an outfielder, and his fielding is not a plus (or a minus, but he needs the help).
NR. Edd Roush - Consistently missing games, in the weak league, not a good fielder, not a great hitter. Pass.
37. Charlie Keller - Missed some games at his peak which kept it from being high enough to overcome his very short career. Only 1.5 years of war credit.
27. Rollie Fingers - Might squeeze into my PHOM one day, but I believe the importance of relievers is vastly overblown by baseball men, and I don't feel compelled to go along with it too much. If pressed on it, I'd say Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera were the only HOM relievers, with a couple others (including Fingers) right on the borderline.
78. Pete Browning - Not in love, no fielding, career is short for an OF.



Other newcomers

22. Nettles - Very close to Perez in career shape. I agree with those who say Elliot is clearly better in the 3B backlog, and he's getting virtually no support. Nettles will be in the mix for my last couple PHOM slots when we're done, I think.
42. Sutton - I'm sure he'll be elected, as the electorate more or less hates the backlog at this point, but he won't be getting my vote. He makes Beckley look like the king of peaks, and he doesn't even have an impressive prime, really.
60. Cruz - Nice player, HOVG, not a serious HOM candidate. Interesting career shape, as he kept improving well into his 30s.
NR. Sutter - What were the Hall voters smoking on this one? Not even Mike Marshall, much less Goose Gossage. Not in the galaxy of Fingers, who isn't even on my ballot. His peak, even by reliever standards, does not stand out and his career is a joke.
   157. Patrick W Posted: February 13, 2007 at 12:40 AM (#2296391)
We are awaiting the arrival of a member of the HOM class of 2056 this week. Apologies for the lack of commentary on the rookies this year.

1. Phil Niekro (3), Atl. (N) SP (’65-’87) (1993) – I didn’t expect to see his resume include three phenomenal years like it does. I expected to see a T.John career, but he’s a sure-fire first ballot player.
2. Don Sutton (n/a), L.A. (N) SP (’66-’88) (1994) – Average forever.
--. Bobby Grich, Cal – Balt. (A), 2B (’72-’86) (1994)
3. Rollie Fingers (5), Oak. (A) – S.D. (N) RP (’70-’84) (1991) – 33% bonus on his pitching runs to account for leverage. This could be low, but I don’t think I can support using a higher multiplier.
4. Tony Perez (6), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) >(1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
5. Luis Tiant (7), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
6. Ted Simmons (n/a), St.L – Mil. (N) C (’70-’88) – Forgotten about because of comparison to Bench.
7. Jim Kaat (8), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
8. Rusty Staub (9), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
9. Jimmy Wynn (10), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) (1985) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
10. Graig Nettles (n/a), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
11. Dutch Leonard (11), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
12. Dizzy Trout (12), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
13. Norm Cash (13), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
14. Alejandro Oms (14), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
15. George Van Haltren (15), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.

Quincy Trouppe – I think I spent the first half overrating catchers, and now apparently I underrate them relative to the group. To my recollection, I have not changed my methodology regarding backstops in a long while, so I’m blaming you guys.
Nellie Fox – Not the best glove man missing from the ballot.
Edd Roush – I can’t even tell if career voters or peak voters should be voting for Roush. Near the bottom of the OF consideration set.
Charlie Keller – DiMaggio, Ryan and Hooper rank above him among the OF’s. I know each of them has previously appeared on my ballot, so I wouldn’t be surprised if I’ve given Keller a few votes over the years. A 23% bonus for war credit still leaves him short of 5,000 AB’s; it’ll be a hard sell to make the ballot again.

Four players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   158. KJOK Posted: February 13, 2007 at 12:48 AM (#2296399)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. PHIL NIEKRO, P.29 POW, 374 Win Shares, 141 WARP1, 322 RSAA, 274 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 5,404 innings. Just BARELY ahead of Carlton.

2. TED SIMMONS, C. 22 POW, 315 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 269 RCAP & .560 OWP in 9,685 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Ridiculously good hitter for a catcher.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

4. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

5. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

6. GENE TENACE, C/1B. 26 POW, 231 Win Shares, 73 WARP1, 244 RCAP & .670 OWP in 5,525 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Highly underrated, and very close to Bresnahan in performance.

7. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

8. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

9. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

10. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

11. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

12. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

13. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

14.JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 305 Win Shares, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Better than Kiner overall.

15. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

GRAIG NETTLES, 3B. 22 POW, 321 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 96 RCAP & .535 OWP in 10,226 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Great fielding 3rd baseman, and long career. Falls a bit short on offense. Just barely ahead of Cey in off-ballot slot.

JOSE CRUZ, LF. 21 POW, 313 Win Shares, 98 WARP1, 156 RCAP & .611 OWP in 8,931 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Poor man’s Bob Johnson?

DAVE CONCEPCION SS. 18 POW, 269 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 126 RCAP & .425 OWP in 9,640 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. I’m as big of a proponent of comparisons vs. peers as anyone, but Dave Bancroft blows Concepcion away in status vs. peers.

DON SUTTON, P.17 POW, 319 Win Shares, 115 WARP1, 137 RSAA, 206 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 108 ERA+ in 5,282 innings. Had a good 11 year run, and average other seasons, which doesn’t move him above Walters, Willis or Leonard – is just barely above Jim Kaat.

RETURNEES:

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, 93 WARP1, 129 RCAP & .483 OWP in 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Would rank Concepcion and Monroe ahead of him.

EDD ROUSH, CF. 10 POW, 110 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .622 OWP in 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

ROLLIE FINGERS, RP. 23 POW, 188 Win Shares, 80 WARP1, 103 RSAA, & 119 ERA+ in 1,701 innings. Even with post season and leverage, can’t match up to starters with that ERA+.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.
   159. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: February 13, 2007 at 01:09 AM (#2296407)
1994 ballot:

1. Phil Niekro, sp: Same ERA+ as Carlton, and their career WS, Warp3 and TPR totals are similar, but Phil was in the top rank of pitchers less often than Lefty. Tops this year. (eligible, PHOM 1993)

2. Rollie Fingers, rp: 2nd or 3rd best reliever to date, either just ahead or just behind the still-active Gossage. Has fallen behind Smith and Reardon in the all-time save rankings, but he’s better than they are. (eligible & PHOM 1991)

3. Ted Simmons, c: By several career measures, he looks sort of like, but a bit worse than, Torre. But Ted has much more career at catcher and better defense, which offsets Torre’s OPS+ edge. Counting McVey & White, we have 15 catchers in the HOM now. If Simmons goes in, I’d put him just below the middle of the gang. (eligible & PHOM 1994)

4. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

5. Nellie Fox, 2b: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

6. Don Sutton, sp: Not much in the way of peak but there’s a lot of career value. (eligible & PHOM 1994)

7. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

8. Pie Traynor, 3b: Largely forgotten here, but had 11 quality seasons and was a 6-time STATS all-star. (eligible 1941, PHOM 1987)

9. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)

10. Bobby Bonds, rf: I hadn’t really looked closely at him at first. I’m more impressed with him than Wynn, so I’m slotting him around where Jimmy had been. (eligible 1987)

11. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

12. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

13. Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. 6 STATS all-star teams, 11 quality seasons. If we discount 10% for wartime performance, it’s 5.9 and 10.8 respectively. ;-) (eligible 1951)

14. Vern Stephens, ss: Positional balance puts him on -- I’ve been neglecting shortstops somehow, and he looks like the best of that field. (eligible 1961)

15. Pete Browning, cf: Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. 1876-1991, he’s 33rd all-time in RCAA, 32nd in RCAP. This in a relatively short career. This also with no adjustments up for schedule or down for league quality. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)


Required comments:
Jimmy Wynn: Pretty good peak, career, but I’m not as impressed as others, and think the home-park business is overstated. His home/road numbers don’t seem to support it.
Charlie Keller: Even if I credit ~240 games of good performance in ’44-’45 (my what-ifs for wartime don’t go so far as imagining a peak), he comes up short on career value. Only 7 full-time seasons including those, and a precipitous decline after WW2. No credit pre-1939 -- lots of people are “blocked” at ages 20-21.
Quincy Trouppe: His total absence from the HOF consideration set is most bothersome to me. As others have pointed out, there’s more speculation involved in his MLEs than in those of other players we’ve considered.
Edd Roush: I’m not inclined to be giving him credit for his mini-, midi- and maxi-holdouts, so I see in-season durability issues and him hurting his team by his absences. I’m also not wowed by his numbers in context of the time. I have Wynn & Reggie Smith ahead of him.

New people:
Bruce Sutter: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. Will likely be on ballot at some point.
Dave Concepcion: Falls into a gaggle of good-field, moderate hit shortstops. I have Stephens and his bat on, Bancroft, Campaneris and Rizzuto off. There’s only 15 slots up there.
Graig Nettles: He could make it on. I’m undecided as yet.
Jose Cruz: Not enough there.
   160. OCF Posted: February 13, 2007 at 01:44 AM (#2296419)
At this point I have 55 votes - no one truly new, but several voters returing after absences of various lengths. The recent voters still missing: James Newburg, jhwinfrey, and Joe Dimino.
   161. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 13, 2007 at 01:46 AM (#2296420)
I've got to hold the record for return after longest absence...I think I last voted in "1934."
   162. OCF Posted: February 13, 2007 at 01:49 AM (#2296424)
1939, to be precise.
   163. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 13, 2007 at 02:00 AM (#2296435)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.

I had e-mailed Joe this morning, but he never responded.
   164. jimd Posted: February 13, 2007 at 02:02 AM (#2296437)
At this point I have 55 votes

Thought we had a good shot for 57, a new record.
   165. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 13, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2296472)
Thought we had a good shot for 57, a new record.

If we had 57, Niekro most likely would be the record holder for the most points now instead of Aaron.
   166. jimd Posted: February 13, 2007 at 02:39 AM (#2296477)
If we had 57, Niekro most likely would be the record holder for the most points now instead of Aaron.

If both ballots had him as "elect-me", one higher than third.
Two thirds would give him a tie with Aaron.
A fourth place or less and he falls just short.
   167. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 13, 2007 at 04:35 AM (#2296572)
Damn, we got super-slammed at work today, and it completely slipped my mind to vote. The 'slow-time' that I budgeted ended up as busy time.

I'll turn in a ballot for posterity's sake tomorrow . . .
   168. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 13, 2007 at 04:47 AM (#2296586)
Unless you were going to cast a 257-point vote for Quincy Trouppe, I don't think it would have mattered.
   169. ronw Posted: February 13, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2296903)
Poor Jack Quinn
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