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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, March 18, 2007

1996 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Keith Hernandez, Chet Lemon, Fred Lynn, Rick Reuschel, Frank White, Bill Buckner, Bob Boone and Dan Quisenberry.

Top-ten returnees: Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, Nellie Fox, Edd Roush, Pete Browning, Jake Beckley and Rollie Fingers.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 18, 2007 at 10:59 PM | 182 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 19, 2007 at 12:14 PM (#2313966)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

2) Charlie Keller-LF (3): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

3) Charley Jones-LF/CF (4): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

4) Bucky Walters-P (5): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

5) Mickey Welch-P (6): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

6) Pete Browning-CF/LF (7): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

7) Vic Willis-P (8): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

8) Keith Hernandez-1B (n/e): Surprised me that he made my ballot, but I'm comfortable with it since he was an unbelievable defensive player and a skilled batter. Best ML first baseman for 1979, 1980 and 1984. Best NL first baseman for 1977, 1981, 1985 and 1986.

9) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/DH (9): Glad to see that he's getting support now. Best player at his primary position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, and 1969. Best right fielder for 1972 and 1974.

10) Gavvy Cravath-RF (11): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 19, 2007 at 12:15 PM (#2313967)
11) Alejandro Oms-CF (12): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

12) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (14): He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

13) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (10): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

14) Pie Traynor-3B (n/e): Back on my ballot after a "decade." Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

15) Burleigh Grimes-P (15): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

Fox, Beckley, Roush and Fingers all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   3. Daryn Posted: March 19, 2007 at 12:27 PM (#2313971)
I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.
None of the newbies make my ballot. I don’t buy that Hernandez’ defensive greatness overcomes his offensive shortcomings.

Keller is not in my consideration set -- career too short.
Wynn is in the 30s along with Roush.

1. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

2. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

3. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

4. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

6. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

8. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

9. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

10. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

11. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. I definitely like Tiant better and I am pretty sure I prefer him to Cepeda – I’m not too sure about the Fingers-John-Nettles-Rice order). If he is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

12. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

13. Graig Nettles – definitely better than Traynor, about equal to Boyer. Obviously, the defence is a big help.

14. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

15. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Roush, Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.
   4. Rusty Priske Posted: March 19, 2007 at 12:43 PM (#2313978)
Backloggers-R-Us!

PHoM: Tony Perez, Keith Hernandez, Cupid Childs

1. Tony Perez (3,2,6)

2. Jake Beckley (5,4,5)

3. Rusty Staub (6,3,9)

4. George Van Haltren (7,8,8)

5. Edd Roush (4,5,10)

6. Jimmy Wynn (8,12,11)

7. Tommy Leach (9,9,12)

8. Nellie Fox (11,6,7)

9. Mickey Welch (13,15,13)

10. Graig Nettles (14,7,x)

11. Lou Brock (10,11,15)

12. Keith Hernandez (new)

13. Norm Cash (x,x,x)

14. Hugh Duffy (x,x,x)

15. Reggie Smith (x,x,x)

16-20. Bonds, Singleton, Cepeda, Johnson, Browning
21-25. Willis, Redding, S. Rice, Streeter, Grimes
26-30. McCormick, Strong, Davis, Doyle, Greene
   5. rawagman Posted: March 19, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2314064)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I have just realized that my system did not fully appreciate the value accrued by being average (a lot is made up that way). Brand new comments this week for all candudates last election's top 20 who do not make my ballot.
PHOM - Keith Hernandez, Biz Mackey & Bob Johnson. Among the non-Keith Hernandez newcomers, only Quis (20 - I love peak/dominance in releivers) and Lynn (47) impressed me.


1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
3)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. Even when he was missing time, he wasn't missing all that much. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
4)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
5)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. I flipped Bridges and Gomez this week. Not as an affront to Lefty, but after reexamining the cases put up by Dick Redding and Bucky Walters. Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project. Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. As we see the upcoming dearth of good pitching candidates, I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look.(PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as among the best available pitchers in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit. That said, even with the partial credit I am giving him (2 full years), I now see that he was rather durable in season, and he seems to have been a solid defender. (PHOM)
8)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
9)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
10)Keith Hernandez - Very similar to Ben Taylor. I like Taylor's stick (as far as I can tell) a bit better. That said, Hernandez is going straight to my PHOM. In general, I think 1B defense is seriously underrated. See Hernandez thread for a fuller explanation of my take on that. (PHOM)
11)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
((11a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation)) (PHOM)
12)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
((12a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.))
13)Orlando Cepeda
((13a)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.))
14)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
15)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
   6. rawagman Posted: March 19, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2314066)
16)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
17)Wally Berger - super-underrated
18)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
19)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
((19a)Darrell Evans - Thanks to Chris Cobb for correcting a flaw in my judgment that was worth 8 spots on this ballot. Being a third basemen for 2 more years would have been worth another 8 spots or so.))
20)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
21)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
22)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
23)Jimmy Wynn - In my reassessment, I was struck by the closeness in several of my areas of focus between Jimmy Wynn and Al Oliver. Each man played around 2/3 of his career in CF, and the other 1/3 elsewhere in the OF. Wynn had a higher career OPS+ (128-121) and more seasons above 120 (8-6). I also give Wynn a slight edge with defensive ability. Ultimately, I have Oliver because those differences are quite small and are made up, IMHO by Oliver's extra ink (small consideration), much greater contemporary acclaim (Oliver- 7 ASG appearances, 3 silver sluggers. Wynn - 3 ASG appearances) and mostly by the 3 extra seasons as a regular. Looking at my other highly regarded CF's, Roush is like Oliver but with greater consistency (10 seasons as a regular with an OPS+ greater than 120, plus a great glove. Duffy had the glove (see my comments on his defense in the Duffy/GVH/Jimmy Ryan thread.) and a higher peak than any of them.
24)Alejandro Oms - This is a serious jump for him in my rankings (nearly 60 places). I was counting him as a RF only. The hybrid time gets him here, just above Reggie Smith. This could change. Right now I have provisionally given him a career as a 50% CF.
25)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn.
26)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
27)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
28)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((28a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((28b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers differently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irellevent over the years.))

29)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
30)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
31)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
32)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((32a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
((32b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.))

33)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((33a)Cupid Childs))
34)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
35)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this. It seems that his abundance of 15th place votes last year was a lot of voters hedging their bets.
36)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
37)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
38)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((38a)Don Sutton - Had a peak, but not an exceptional one. His durability pushes him above Tiant.))
39)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
40)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth a lot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
41)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
42)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
43)Phil Rizzuto
44)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
45)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting. See Perez comment for more about my 1B thoughts.
46)Jimmy Ryan
47)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
48)Charlie Keller - Let's start with extra credit questions. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no. He had serious durability issues. Are high rate stats easier to maintain when not playing a full schedule. It would seem so. A very talented bat, nevertheless. Another voter asked how would Keller and Kiner have fared if they were essentially traded for one another. I have a nagging doubt in my gut that we wouldn't have discussed Keller that much if he played on a different franchise. A great player when on the field. So was Fred Lynn. Charley Jones played more full seasons without blacklist credit than Keller did with both WWII and minor league credit. As I'll only give Keller the WWII credit and I am giving Jones 2 years of blacklist credit, that gives Charley Jones double the career (a pennant is a pennant). Bob Johnson was every inch the hitter Keller was, but in great obscurity and for much longer. What about Wally Berger? Another hard core masher with a short career (still a fair bit longer than Keller's though - and he played CF (and he played it well!)
49)Cy Williams
50)Amos Otis
51)Dolf Camilli
52)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
53)Pete Browning - A superior masher, but a horrible person to have on your team. No defensive value whatsoever and very very poor durability. Worse than most contemporary catchers.
54)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
55)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
56)George Kell
57)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
58)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
59)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
60)Sal Bando
61)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
62)Pie Traynor
63)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
64)Johnny Evers
65)Elston Howard
66)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
67)Bill Mazeroski
68)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
69)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
70)Vic Willis - A re-examination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
71)Thurmon Munson - see below.
72)Roger Bresnahan - Not like the two above or below, he is among those negatively affected by my new adjustments.
73)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
74)Johnny Pesky
75)Hippo Vaughn
76)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
77)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
78)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
79)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
80)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
81)Rocky Colavito
81)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
82)Denny Lyons
83)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
84)George Van Haltren - see the comment on Wynn. Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
85)Rabbit Maranville
   7. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2007 at 03:58 PM (#2314079)
1996 Ballot

1) Luis Tiant - comparable to Bunning, Pierce, Drysdale and Marichal. I have targeted 33% pitching representation and we're well short of that. I don't know how you could have 33% pitching and not pick Tiant.
2) Keith Hernandez - a complete surprise to me that he was that good but after reading his thread and comparing him to the unelected returnees it doesn't shock me that he rises to the top.
3) Bob Johnson - solid 70th percentile HoM player. Good all-around outfielder who probably deserves PCL credit. Defensively underrated by Win Shares due to poor teams.

4) Norm Cash - Comparable bat to Cepeda with a better glove.
5) Tommy Bridges - Top war era pitcher available and we're short on war era pitching.
6) Tony Perez - Good glove and 3B time help him make the ballot
7) Jake Beckley - Is he destined to be unelected forever?
8) Reggie Smith - Japan credit, underrated fielder, lower offense era
9) Bus Clarkson - MLEs show .285/.370/.439 in ~8000 PAs which is terrific. I've settled on Jay Bell as a comparable modern defender. That's Barry Larkin minus which makes him the best middle infielder available.
10) Rusty Staub - not a good defender, stashed at PH and DH later in his career because his bat could no longer carry his glove
11) Rick Reuschel - I'm likely to have him higher than anyone else. Had some outstanding peak seasons in 1977 and 1985 and a nice 1972-1981 prime, totaled 996 PRAR and 221 PRAA, decent bat for a pitcher and a very good glove. How many pitchers are used as pinch runners on off days? Pitched well for a long time after his injury rehab. 5 top 10s in *ERA+.
12) Gavy Cravath
13) Graig Nettles - Adjusting for the DH helped Nettles move onto the ballot. Well rounded player.
14) Virgil Trucks - with war credit he makes the ballot. Good reliever toward the end of his career
15) Buddy Bell - DH adjustment moved him way up also. Very good glove, good bat, long career and lots of plate appearances. Looks like Brooks Robinson minus. I think we're in the era of the 3B.

16-20) Jimmy Wynn, Edd Roush, Thurman Munson, Ken Singleton, Bobby Bonds
21-25) Bob Elliott, Orlando Cepeda, Dutch Leonard, Ron Cey, Charlie Keller
26-30) Dick Redding, Jack Quinn, Darrell Porter, Rollie Fingers, Vic Willis
31-35) Dave Bancroft, Urban Shcoker, Johnny Evers, Luke Easter, Tommy John
36-41) Dizzy Trout, Hilton Smith, Frank Howard, Alejandro Oms, Charley Jones, Pete Browning

115) Nellie Fox - I'll take any of the mediocre bat SS (Bancroft, Rizzuto, Lundy, Concepcion, Tinker, Bartell) over the mediocre bat 2B.

87) Fred Lynn
100) Chet Lemon

Dan Quisenberry - around the bottom of consideration set
Frank White, Bill Buckner, Bob Boone - not in consideration set
   8. Juan V Posted: March 19, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2314168)
Early ballot this time:

1) GAVVY CRAVATH: Or is it Gavy? Anyway, the guy could hit.

2) BUS CLARKSON: Check out his thread. Well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

3) ROGER BRESNAHAN: After I did the prelim, I revised my catcher adjustment which led to them rising as a group. It boosted Bresnahan from just off the ballot to here. With a nice OBP, he was tremendously valuable relative to his position/era.

4) ALE OMS: Mucho Win Shares

5) LUIS TIANT: Best pitcher remaining, as the 70's glut goes increasingly behind us. ERA+ underrates him.

6) TONY LAZZERI: 2B offense was starting to go well down during his career, according to my estimations.

7) DAVID CONCEPCIÓN: All-Time defense, average-ish bat, in a time when his peers couldn't hit a lick.

8) JIMMY WYNN: Time spent at the corners brings him down a bit. Still, looks pretty electable.

9) JAKE BECKLEY: Pass.

10) VIC WILLIS: Nice run prevention

11) TONY PEREZ: Spent some good prime seasons during his 3B time, giving him extra value. I'm downgrading his WARP defense there a bit.

12) KEITH HERNANDEZ: My offense system, which takes position into account, sees him as a dead-ringer for Brooks Robinson. And maybe that is a good comp, as they were both All-Time defenders at their positions. Not quite Brooks, since his defense wasn't as valuable, but close. Probably isn't significantly better than the top backloggers, but he doesn't need to be to get elected.

13) BOB JOHNSON

14) CHARLEY JONES: Different eras, same position, very similar score. Indian Bob has a bit more career, Baby has a bit more peak-prime.

15) TOBY HARRAH: He is deservedly dinged for his defense, but with his bat, even pretending to be a shortstop made a player valuable. He's the player I thought Jim Fregosi was.
   9. Jim Sp Posted: March 19, 2007 at 06:19 PM (#2314172)
Quiz #29, Lemon #34 (something seems wrong with that, don’t it?), Reuschel #42, Lynn #63.

1) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
2) Hernandez--Greatest defensive 1B ever, plus a very good hitter.
3) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. A 94 OPS+ is strong for a grade A second baseman, compare Mazeroski at 84. 1957 and 1959 are great peak seasons (11.8 and 9.8 warp3). 1951-1960 is a high sustained prime. PHoM in 1970.
4) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
5) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders.
6) Keller--There’s no doubt he was one of the great hitters when healthy, 152 career OPS+ is #28 all time. An MVP type season every year from 1940-46 when not at war. That’s enough prime for me, even without longevity. PHoM 1985.
7) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2.
8) Perez--Interesting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there.
9) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
10) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
11) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch.
12) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
13) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987. In 1965 had a MVP type season completely obscured by the Astrodome and era. Best years were not consecutive but impressive: 11.0, 10.3, 9.8, 9.5, 9.0, 8.1, 7.4 by warp3.
14) Buddy Bell--The number of other 3b candidates should not be held against him. Compare him to the average starting 3b of the era and clearly he was a superior player. Compare Bell’s 108 OPS+ to say Ray Knight (99), Phil Garner (99), Enos Cabell (93)—none of whom were good fielders at 3rd. It’s a tough position. Apparently I’m doomed to end this exercise with 10 third baseman on my ballot.
15) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.
16) Fingers--ERA+ not impressive, but by other measures better.

Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
Roush – #71 with no extra credit. It would take a lot of extra credit to get him on ballot.
Beckley-#58. Lots of career with no peak.
   10. Juan V Posted: March 19, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2314186)
Off ballot

16) Rollie Fingers: Squeezed out. I have little to say except that I like him, but there are literally 15 other guys I like better.
17) Bert Campaneris
18) Marvin Williams
19) George Scales
20) John McGraw
21) Charlie Keller: While I don't vote for him, I won't object his eventual election. Still, his lack of career can only be compensated by a very generous credit handout.
22) Jimmy Ryan
23) Bob Elliot
24) Vern Stephens
25) Thurman Munson
26) Bobby Bonds
27) Cesar Cedeño
28) Rusty Staub
29) Pete Browning: When you think about it, he's equivalent to a poor-fielding, short career corner outfielder with a 140ish OPS+. His peak is still good, but he needs more.
30) Dave Bancroft
31) Ken Singleton
32) Reggie Smith
33) Mickey Welch
34) Ron Cey
35) Darrell Porter
36) Dick Bartell
37) Ned Williamson
38) Lefty Gomez
39) Ernie Lombardi
40) Cannonball Dick Redding
41) Nellie Fox: I guess I'll never get it...
42) Jim Fregosi
43) Norm Cash
44) Larry Doyle
45) Edd Roush: As an early centerfielder, he need more offensive value. Which he may have gotten had he stayed in the lineup longer.
46) Chuck Klein
47) George Van Haltren
48) Frank Howard
49) Graig Nettles
50) Davey Lopes
51) Sal Bando
52) Jim Rice
53) Gene Tenace
54) Luis Aparicio
55) Buddy Bell
56) Orlando Cepeda
57) Rick Reuschel. I want more than an enhanced Tommy John.
58) Fred Lynn: Edd Roush-lite
59) Hugh Duffy
60) Dick Lundy
61) Elston Howard
62) Tommy Leach
63) Phil Rizzuto
64) Artie Wilson
65) Tommy John
66) Tommy Bridges
67) Ron Guidry
68) Bucky Walters
69) Bruce Sutter
70) Pie Traynor
71) Dan Quisenberry: Sutter with inherited runners problems. I don't know if this is too low, but being more generous with the reliever adjustment would put Fingers too high for my liking. I'm open to a good argument for/against him.
72) Cheo Cruz
73) Chet Lemon: Good player, needs a bit of everything.
74) Dizzy Dean
75) Gil Hodges
76) Johnny Pesky
77) Chris Speier
78) Wilbur Wood
79) Lou Brock
   11. AJMcCringleberry Posted: March 19, 2007 at 06:52 PM (#2314193)
1. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

2. Keith Hernandez - He's Keith Hernandez, he won the MVP in '79. He was also a very good hitter and the best defensive first baseman of all time.

3. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

4. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

5. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

6. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

7. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

8. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

9. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

10. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

13. Buddy Bell - Very similar to Nettles. Both decent hitters and great defenders with long careers.

14. Ken Singleton - 132 career OPS+. Very good peak, 4 year with an OPS+ over 150.

15. Bobby Bonds - 130 career OPS+. 461 SB, 332 HR, 5 30/30 seasons.

16. Ceasar Cedeno
17. Vada Pinson
18. Tommy John
19. Norm Cash
20. Hugh Duffy
21. Edd Roush
22. Tommy Leach
23. Bob Elliott
24. Ron Cey
25. Dave Concepcion
26. George Van Haltren
27. Harry Hooper
28. Luis Tiant
29. Alejandro Oms
30. Buzz Arlett
31. Orlando Cepeda
32. Gil Hodges
33. Burleigh Grimes
34. Reggie Smith
35. Jose Cruz
36. Willie Davis
37. Fielder Jones
38. Dick Redding
39. Rick Reuschel
40. Pie Traynor
41. Jim Kaat
42. George Foster
43. Pete Browning
44. Wally Berger
45. Fred Lynn
46. Vern Stephens
47. Dick Bartell
48. Toby Harrah
49. Lou Brock
50. Red Schoendienst

Keller - Great peak, but not enough career value.

Fingers - I'm not sure about him, I'd like for a relief pitcher to have more than a couple of dominant seasons.
   12. karlmagnus Posted: March 19, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2314206)
Keith Hernandez not nearly good enough 2182@129 at bottom of consideration set. Rice minus a chunk. Yet again, thoroughly overrated by WS. Lemon is Hernandez, but for a shorter time. Lynn’s WAY better than Hernandez and better than Rice, WS seriously out even in the same era. Reuschel very close to Tiant, but Tiant moves down to meet him, not vice versa. White Buckner and Boone WAY off the bottom; WS needs Loss Shares to rank them properly.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-2-1-2) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 80 “years” ago.

2. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

3. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

4. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

5. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

6. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8-7) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

7. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6-8-7-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF. Down, but just above Browning

9. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7-6-10) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Also discount for not playing full seasons; the normalized hits should thus be about 1900, so drop him to just above Hondo.

10. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.
   13. karlmagnus Posted: March 19, 2007 at 07:08 PM (#2314207)
11. (N/A-12) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

12. (N/A) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.

13. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765. Back on ballot again.

14. (N/A-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long. Back on ballot after short hiatus.

15. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. Back on ballot after long hiatus. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back up towards ballot in Pierce’s slot.

17. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.
18. Bill Madlock.
19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138
20. Reggie Smith
21. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

22. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

23. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.
24. Toby Harrah
25. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
26. Ben Taylor.
27. Jim Kaat
28. Orlando Cepeda
29. Norm Cash
30. Jim Rice 2452 hits at 128 TB+BB/PA .530, TB+BB/Outs .797. Between Cash and Perez looks about right.

31. Tony Perez. Even here may be too high. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
32. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy.
33. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
34. Cesar Cedeno
35. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
36. Lou Brock
37. Mickey Vernon
38. Thurmon Munson
39. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
40. Sal Maglie.
41. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
42. (N/A) Heinie Manush
43. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
44. Bob Elliott
45. (N/A) Dick Lundy
46. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
47. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
48. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
49. Gene Tenace
50. Kiki Cuyler
51. Deacon McGuire
52. Jerry Koosman.
53. Boog Powell
54. Ken Singleton.
55. Sal Bando.
56. Jim Fregosi.
57. Jack Quinn
58. Tony Mullane
59. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
60. Ron Cey
61. Keith Hernandez 2182 hits @129 just not very impressive – would need 135 to be on the ballot. OVERRATED! TB+BB/PA .501 TB+BB/Outs.780
62. Pie Traynor
63. Jim McCormick
64. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
65. Joe Judge
66. Edd Roush Same quality as Beckley but less valuable defensive position and 20% shorter career. Yes, he’s good, but Beckley’s a lot better.
67. Spotswood Poles.
68. Buddy Bell. Just about as good as Darrell Evans because full-time 3B but overrated by WS. 2514 hits at 108, TB+BB/PA .448, TB+BB/Outs .675
69. Larry Doyle
70. Curt Simmons
71. Roger Bresnahan.
72. Waite Hoyt.
73. Harry Hooper.
74. Vada Pinson
75. Gil Hodges
76. Jules Thomas.
77. Rico Carty.
78. Wilbur Cooper
79. Bruce Petway.
80. Jack Clements
81. Graig Nettles.
82. Bill Monroe
83. Herb Pennock
84. Chief Bender
85. Ed Konetchy
86. Al Oliver
87. Jesse Tannehill
88. Bobby Veach
89. Chet Lemon. Not close to ballot. Add 5 points for CF makes him 126. TB>BB/PA .481, TB+BB/Outs .708.
90. Lave Cross
91. Tommy Leach.
92. Tom York

Three Top 10 off my consideration set:

Fox is Rabbit Maranville again, off my ballot with OPS+ well under 100 – I think the old-timers overrated the importance of SS fielding, and underrated the possibility of getting a SS who could hit.

Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions. Lynn was in any case much much better.

Keller’s a hitting Dizzy Dean; all peak but very short career (missed 1 ½ years for war, but even with them would be under 1400 hits) He’s Hack Wilson minus a lot, because his 1943 should anyway be discounted.
   14. ronw Posted: March 19, 2007 at 07:22 PM (#2314212)
1996 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

2. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

3. Keith Hernandez 22.7 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Could easily be #1, I just feel that Redding and Browning are slightly better choices.

4. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Soon to get eclipsed by two more HOM 3B.

5. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

6. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

7. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

8. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

9. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

10. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

11. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

12. Lou Brock. - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career looks pretty good to me.

13. Charlie Keller. 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit.

14. Jimmy Wynn. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone.

15. Ben Taylor I think Ben was a bit better than Jake.

16. Jake Beckley. 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

17. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

18. Dan Quisenberry – 45.0 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. Very dominant during his peak.

19. Nellie Fox. 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. I like Doyle and Monroe better. Fox wouldn’t be a horrible selection.

20. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Neck and neck with Singleton.

OTHER NEAR-MISSES/NEWBIES/LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

C. Gene Tenace. 24.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS.

C Bob Boone – 8.8 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 4 AS. Nope.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

1B. Tony Perez. 19.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS.

1B. Bill Buckner – 13.1 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 3 AS. How did he last so long?

2B. George Scales. I think we could have missed him.

2B. Frank White – 8.5 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 1AS. The evidence that Bill James’ Win Shares are neutral.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Vern Stephens. 18.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS.

LF. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS.

LF. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS.

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

CF. Edd Roush – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m not giving holdout credit.

CF. Chet Lemon – 17.8 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 8 AS. Interesting that he has a better WARP than Lynn.

CF. Fred Lynn – 20.1 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 6 AS. One of my favorite players. A flameout soon after he went to California.

RF. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS.

RF Claudell Washington – 15.3 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 1 AS. He made two All-Star games!

SP. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Rick Reuschel – 20.3 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 10 AS. Much more effective than I realized.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 4 AS. Why is he doing so much better than in the voting than Hiller and Lyle?

RP. Bruce Sutter. 48.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS.
   15. Chris Fluit Posted: March 19, 2007 at 07:49 PM (#2314234)
9 ballots so far, 8 different number ones. I have a feeling we'll be setting a new record for the most candidates receiving a first place vote.
   16. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2007 at 08:47 PM (#2314287)
Can we elect Hernandez without giving him a 1st place vote? That would be something else.
   17. DavidFoss Posted: March 19, 2007 at 08:55 PM (#2314294)
Can we elect Hernandez without giving him a 1st place vote? That would be something else.

Happened with Evans and Trouppe last year. Hornsby didn't get any 1st place votes either.

Faber finished #1 with just 1-1st place vote.
   18. JPWF13 Posted: March 19, 2007 at 09:33 PM (#2314321)
I have a feeling we'll be setting a new record for the most candidates receiving a first place vote.


What;s interesting is how one voter's #1 pick is ending up #70 on another's- and people accuse BTF of Groupthink...
   19. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2314328)
Evans and Trouppe weren't up against just a splintered backlog. I meant it would be something else to have a record for #1 votes and have an electee not receive one of those votes. Faber is the closest.
   20. Chris Cobb Posted: March 19, 2007 at 09:54 PM (#2314332)
Given the spread of #1 votes, I think it's pretty likely that Hernandez will get his share. We've only seen around 1/6 of the ballots, after all.
   21. Juan V Posted: March 19, 2007 at 10:00 PM (#2314335)
Given the spread of #1 votes, I think it's pretty likely that Hernandez will get his share. We've only seen around 1/6 of the ballots, after all.


He did have some preliminary #1s,IIRC.
   22. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 19, 2007 at 10:22 PM (#2314354)
What;s interesting is how one voter's #1 pick is ending up #70 on another's- and people accuse BTF of Groupthink...

What's really interesting is that many of the accusers dabble in Groupthink themselves within their own group.
   23. Juan V Posted: March 19, 2007 at 10:34 PM (#2314363)
Yeah, just like last year when everyone had Schmidt at #1. Talk about following the herd... :-p
   24. favre Posted: March 19, 2007 at 11:08 PM (#2314375)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Charley Jones
2. Jake Beckley

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments); a career OPS+ 150 or thereabouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s; eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits); not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than the others with the possible exception of Keller. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

Over the past thirty years Beckley has finished between seventh and sixteenth in the balloting, 25 times between eighth and thirteenth (12th place is his median finish). He keeps hanging around the end of the ballot, but never moves much up or down. With fourteen elections left, it will be very interesting to see if he makes it. You would think so, but…

3. Keith Hernandez
4. Jimmy Wynn

Like other voters, I’m surprised by how well Hernandez does in my system. Then again, I’ve had Beckley high on my ballot for decades, and the two are similar players. Keith was better at defense; Jake had a longer prime and career. That moves Jake ahead, although I could see switching the two if Hernandez isn’t elected this year…Wynn has six seasons with an OPS+ of 140, five of those playing CF.

5. Vic Willis
6. Bucky Walters

Willis had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109).

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old.

7. Nellie Fox
8. Bob Elliott

Boyer’s election gives us another fifties infielder, bringing us to six. (Boyer, Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew and Robinson, but Killer wasn’t established as a full-time player until ’59, and Brooksie until 1960). That’s still too few for a decade of high quality, integrated play. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF. Rose arrived on the scene in 1963, so that’s an eleven year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

It’s hard for me to see the difference between Bob Elliott (287 WS, 124 OPS+, 92.7 WARP1) and Ken Boyer (279 WS, 116 OPS+, 95.0 WARP1; not that I really care about WARP). We’ve only elected seven 3B who debuted before 1950, which seems a little paltry for eighty years of professional baseball.

9. Roger Bresnahan
10. Gavvy Cravath
11. Tommy Leach

We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke.

Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. 324 career WS, great defence at two key positions, and he could hit a little.

12. Ken Singleton
13. Larry Doyle

I’m throwing Singleton some love. If I’m going to vote for a 300 WS OF, I like voting for the guy with nine top ten OBP finishes. Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there are many 1970s outfielders heading for induction. Stargell, Yaz, and Reggie are in, Winfield is coming. Then there’s a bunch of guys—Parker, Rice, Lynn, Dewey, Bonds Sr.—clumped together. I think I like Singleton better than the rest, although I haven’t given Cobra or Dewey a complete look yet…Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+.

14. Eddie Cicotte
15. Dave Concepcion

I don’t understand WARP, so arguments for Concepcion based on it holds little sway with me. OTOH, the “if Nellie Fox, then why not Concepcion” does make a certain amount of sense. Concepcion won five WS gold gloves from 1974-79, and didn’t embarrass himself with the bat. Cicotte had some big years before he threw it all away.


16-20: Frank Howard, Wally Schang, Charlie Keller, Tony Perez, Rusty Staub.

Not in my top fifteen:

Charlie Keller See Jones comment. I don’t give minor-league credit to twenty-one year olds, although he does receive full war credit. That puts him in a glut of outfielders with similar arguments. Not far off my ballot now (currently at #18), but it seems he’ll be elected before he makes my ballot.

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defence, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Edd Roush Like Browning, in some respects: weaker league, had some playing time issues, although he was a whole lot better with the glove..

Rollie Fingers I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy, and Fingers does not look good using either system. Still, Sunny’s argument, that the third best reliever before 1988 should be in, is starting to make sense to me.
   25. Mark Donelson Posted: March 20, 2007 at 12:11 AM (#2314408)
I’m a peak voter. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

After lots of changes and tweaks for last election, nothing major this time.

pHOM: Ted Lyons, McGraw, Oms

1996 ballot:

1. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak, but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me. He's slowly marched up year by year, though even I'm a bit shocked to see him getting my #1 vote. (Someone had to, I guess.)

2. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). First the ultimate peakster pitcher, then the ultimate peakster hitter. With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s very close to Kiner.

3. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

4. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. Excellent peak.

5. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

6. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

7. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

8. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluate outfielders, he does a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

9. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

10. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA mist, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction.

11. Nellie Fox (pHOM 1986). The offensive peak leaves a little to be desired, but the defense more than makes up for that, especially at this position.

12. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.)

13. Edd Roush (pHOM 1988). He’s always been confusing, as there are all sorts of reasons to give him bonuses (mainly WWI) and demerits (mainly league quality). In the end, though, I’m a believer in his peak.

14. Jimmy Wynn (pHOM 1987). I've gone back and forth on Wynn, wondering if I'm overrating him because he's so underrated. But now I'm satisfied with this placement; this will be his first appearance on my ballot. He had enough great years that I'm confident he's deserving.

15. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Finally makes his way back to the ballot after a demotion some years ago. I still like his peak—just not as much as I used to when I was almost giving him elect-me spots. Rounds out my pack of low-level pHOM CFs.
   26. Mark Donelson Posted: March 20, 2007 at 12:13 AM (#2314409)
16-20: Doyle (1995), [Lyons (1996)], McGraw (1996), Redding (1975), Oms (1996), Singleton
21-25: Trout, [Minoso], Pesky, F. Howard, K. Hernandez, Gomez (1987)
26-30: [Da. Evans], Fingers, Bresnahan (1973), Walters (1968), Nettles, McCormick
31-35: G. Burns, [Boyer], H. Smith, Bando, Berger, Sutter
36-40: [Reese], Cepeda, Reuschel, Avila, Quisenberry, H. Wilson
41-45: M. Marshall, Leach, Elliott, Shocker, Munson
46-50: Bo. Bonds, J. Ryan, Rizzuto, Easter, Du. Leonard

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Beckley. I’m a peak voter. He’s not close.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing though, and he hovers right near my eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #26 right now.

•Hernandez. I guess I remain a little more tentative about massive defensive value than many voters. I do give him a significant boost for his defense, which gets him to #24. He’ll probably end up making my pHOM in the end.

•Reuschel. As we enter the realm of players I remember very well, I come across surprises like this. I had no idea he was this good. He’s not going to make my ballot, but I would have said he was borderline HoVG, not borderline HOM. I like him a lot more than traditional borderliners like Tommy John. He debuts at #37.

•Quisenberry. Awfully similar overall to Sutter, which means he, too, will likely end up just outside my final in-out line. He debuts at #39.

•Lynn. Similar to, but not quite as good as, Jimmy Ryan. Just outside my top 50.

•Lemon. Another guy who was better than I realized at the time, but he’s still not close to my top 50.
   27. Adam Schafer Posted: March 20, 2007 at 03:53 AM (#2314474)
I am REALLY suprised with Quisenberry. I thought he would make my ballot, instead I have Mike Marshall ahead of him. I have Browning at #35 and Wynn WAY off my ballot. Moved Oliva down in Wynn and Bonds territory after the discussion stemming from the last ballot. Beckley is at #27

1. Rollie Fingers - One of the greatest relievers of all time.

2. Charley Jones - dominated before being blacklisted, dominated after, and would've dominated if he had been playing.

3. Gavvy Cravath - he took advantage of a good thing and I congratulate him for it b/c he did it better than anyone else.

4. Edd Roush - I give him credit for 1930

5. Nellie Fox - good career candidate

6. Orlando Cepeda - never THE best but consistently very good

7. Bucky Walters - not as much career as I'd like, but good peak

8. Don Newcombe - if you give him war credit and NeL credit, he has outstanding career value.

9. Vern Stephens - a power hitting shortstop with decent career value

10. Bruce Sutter - it will probably only be Fingers, Sutter and Gossage making my ballot for the forseable future. Gossage will be well ahead of Sutter on my ballot.

11. Elston Howard - I really had him undderranked.

12. Bobby Veach - a bit of power, a bit of average, a bit of career value

13. Chuck Klein - see Cravath

14. Jack Quinn - LONG career. A much better player than most give credit for.

15. Ernie Lombardi - good hitting catcher

16. Lefty Gomez

17. Keith Hernandez - almost made my ballot

18. Johnny Pesky

19. Roger Bresnahan

20. Charlie Keller - if he only had more career value
   28. DL from MN Posted: March 20, 2007 at 01:44 PM (#2314563)
Jimmy Wynn, Pete Browning and Jake Beckley are required disclosures.
   29. Adam Schafer Posted: March 20, 2007 at 03:05 PM (#2314614)
As stated in my heading Beckley is at 27 and Browning at 35, so neither are far off. Wynn always has been and always will be way off my ballot down with Bonds and Singleton
   30. DL from MN Posted: March 20, 2007 at 04:14 PM (#2314686)
Sorry, overlooked that.
   31. Adam Schafer Posted: March 20, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2314805)
not a problem
   32. Chris Fluit Posted: March 20, 2007 at 07:05 PM (#2314826)
Personal Hall of Merit: Ken Boyer, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Torre

1. Nellie Fox, 2B (3). PHoM- 1976. Lots of hits (led his league 4 times for a career total of 2663, 9th most among second basemen), lots of balls in play (led his league in at-bats per strikeout 11 straight years and has the 4th best ratio ever behind HoMers Sewell and Start) and above average defense (3 Gold Gloves).

2. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (4). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including a 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

3. Lou Brock, LF (5). PHoM- 1985. More patience than he’s usually given credit for- his career OBP is 50 points higher than his AVG and 13 points higher than the league. Never the best in the league but a solid contributor for a long-time with intermittent All-Star appearances from ‘67 to ’79 and significant gray ink from ’64 to ’74.

4. Alejandro Oms, CF (6). PHoM- 1984. His career overlapped too much with Cristobal Torriente for him to be considered the best, but he had a long prime at a high level. Was consistently among the league leaders from 1923 to ’35, usually in average but occasionally in home runs. Superior defensive reputation nearly pushed him ahead of Brock, but Brock keeps the lead based on established rather than estimated career numbers.

5. Burleigh Grimes, P (7). PHoM- 1984. My ballot is starting to fill up with this kind of player- missing the huge peak but a long excellent prime for a decade or more which results in great career numbers. Still, Grimes did have two separate peaks: first in 1920-’21 when he was the best NL’s pitcher in 1921 (138 ERA+ in 302 IP, compared to Adams 144 in 160 and Doak 142 in 208), and a second in 1928-29 (1st in Wins, 2nd in WHIP in ’28; 1st in ERA+, 2nd in ERA in ’29).

6. Hugh Duffy, CF (8). PHoM- 1995. The Triple Crown winner in 1894, Duffy picked up black ink as early as ’90 and as late as ’97. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton.

7. Don Newcombe, P (9). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

8. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (11). PHoM- 1996. Cepeda is surprisingly close to his year of eligibility classmate Al Kaline. They have similar amounts of black ink. Cepeda led his league in doubles in 1958, in home runs and RBI in 1961 and in RBI again in 1967. And they have similar lengths to their prime, with Cepeda finishing in the top ten in his league in hits 7, avg and total bases 8, slugging 9, and home runs and RBI 10. At his position, I prefer Cepeda’s peak to that of Beckley and his career to that of Chance.

9. Luis Aparicio, SS (12). PHoM- 1987. He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He led his league in stolen bases for 9 straight seasons from ‘56-‘64 and he stayed in the top ten for another 4 until he was 35 in 1969. He won five straight Gold Gloves from ‘58-‘62 and then another 4 in alternating years from ‘64-‘70. Plus, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from ‘58 to ‘73 and leading the league his league twice in ‘69 and ‘73.

10. Jim Rice, LF (10). I wasn’t the only one to vote for Rice! Monster years from 1977 to ’79 leading the league twice in home runs and RBI, and in total bases for all three seasons. Even the uber-stats like those years as he was top five in OPS+ and top two in runs created for all three. Another monster year in ’83, leading the league in all three power categories again. Not a great defender, but unlike Brock, not that much below average. Ink scores show him to be similar to Duffy and Cepeda. Doesn’t move up this year as I’m not quite ready to make him PHoM.

11. Rollie Fingers, RP (13). Only Gossage and Rivera have gone to more All-Star games as a reliever than Rollie Fingers. Top two in games pitched six years in a row from ’72 to ’77. Top four in games saved eleven out of twelve years from ’71 to ’82. Retired as the career leader in saves. ERA under 2 three times (’73, ’81 and a short ’84), and under 3 eleven times in twelve years from ’71 to ’82 and again in that short ’84.

12. Jake Beckley, 1B (14). Never the best of the best, but he was good enough for long enough that he has some of the strongest career numbers of any batter on the board. 31st all-time in hits, 4th in triples, 34th in RBI, 41st in runs, 60th in both total bases and times on base, 63rd in doubles and 77th in runs created. Considering schedule length and era, he’s a much better candidate than HoM eligible Tony Perez or HoF eligible Harold Baines.

13. Vic Willis, P (15). Moved up relative to other pitchers and onto the ballot relative to other positions. Had an incredible run from 1899 to 1901-02. His league-leading ERA of 2.50 was 1.66 better than league average in ’99. He led his league in ERA+ in both ’99 and ’01, before posting a 2.20 ERA in 410 IP in ‘02. After that, he became more of a workhorse though his ’06 season stands out as a fourth excellent year.

14. Pie Traynor, 3B (n/a). The best third baseman available. Good career rate (.320/.362/.435 in 1941 games) and cumulative stats (2416 hits, 321 doubles, 1183 runs, 1273 RBI). Not much of a peak but a solid 11-year prime from 1923 to 1933.

15. Ernie Lombardi, C (n/a). Lombardi was a solid All-Star 8 times between 1936 and 1945 and the MVP in 1938. He was top ten in the league 5 times in Home Runs, 7 times in AVG and 8 times in SLG.

16. Bill Monroe, 2B.
17. Edd Roush, CF.
18. Mickey Welch, P.
19. Ben Taylor, 1B.
20. Dick Lundy, SS.

Top Returnees:
Jimmy Wynn: Not good enough not long enough. Top ten in OPS six times, but never higher than 4th. An everyday player only 12 seasons, finished at the age of 34.

Charlie Keller: Not good enough not long enough. Only 8 years with more than 100 games played, and that’s counting a year and two-thirds of war credit.

Pete Browning: I voted for Browning a couple of elections back but a more recent and thorough look convinced me to drop him to 5th among centerfielders behind Roush and Pinson.

Edd Roush: #17. I’m reluctant to pull the trigger on Roush as I’m worried he might be the 1920s version of JD Drew. Good numbers when he’s in the line-up but out of the line-up so much with contract disputes and injuries that he’s not truly elite.

New Eligibles:
Keith Hernandez: My initial look at Hernandez has him well behind Beckley and Taylor.
   33. Thane of Bagarth Posted: March 21, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2315043)
1996 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election. Unless I get an unforeseen wealth of free time to update my spreadsheet, I am going to continue to vote based on the data I have currently collected.

1) Keith Hernandez
Not exactly a consensus “no-brainer,” but I think he’s well above the in/out line. I don’t see anyone else being more deserving of the #1 spot this year (if Darrell Evans hadn’t been elected last year, Hernandez would be a close 2nd). Perez is breathing down his neck, but the man with the ‘stache has a sizeable advantage in 5-year peak by WARP3 (51.3 to 46.6), and is close enough in top 5 consecutive Win Shares (136 to 144) to get the overall edge when it’s said and done.

2) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

3) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

4) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

5) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

6) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

7) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

8) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

9) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

10) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

11) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of a “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3.

12) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).

13) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

14) Jimmy Ryan
As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part I).

15) Gavy Cravath
A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Dizzy Trout
17) Tommy John
18) Buddy Bell
19) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
20) Sam Rice
21) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections if the backlog ever clears out before he gets elected.
22) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
23) Tommy Leach
24) Rabbit Maranville
25) Norm Cash
26) Jim Kaat
27) Reggie Smith
28) Buzz Arlett
29) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind OFs ranked higher, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
30) Charlie Keller— Even with his peak and the war credit, it’s just not enough combined to get him on my ballot.
31) Burleigh Grimes
32) Jack Quinn
33) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
34) Bob Elliot
35) Jose Cruz
36) Harry Hooper
37) Dave Concepcion
38) Ron Cey
39) Vada Pinson
40) Phil Rizzuto
41) Alejandro Oms
42) Hugh Duffy
43) Rick Reuschel—A higher debut than I might have guessed.
44) Orlando Cepeda
45) Cesar Cedeno
46) Jim Rice
47) Bus Clarkson
48) Lou Brock
49) Vern Stephens
50) George Foster
.
.
.
73) Dick Lundy—could move up with new MLEs

Notable New Players:
62) Fred Lynn
82) Chet Lemon

XXX) Dan Quisenberry—Well off the radar screen, perhaps not in top 200.

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Rollie Fingers—Out of my top 100. I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   34. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: March 21, 2007 at 01:13 AM (#2315049)
Unless I'm mistaken, Rusty owes us a few disclosures as well, particularly Keller.
   35. Howie Menckel Posted: March 21, 2007 at 01:20 AM (#2315053)
1996 ballot, our 99th

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I had last year's electees Schmidt-DaEvans-Trouppe at 1-12-7 on my ballot. An unusually high number of my old-time favorites have been elected, so modern candidates will do fairly well on my ballot in some years.
Do we have to vote ANYBODY in this year? Maybe this makes me a small-hall guy, I don't know.

1. PETE BROWNING - I recently looked again at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
2. ROLLIE FINGERS - Yes, a devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up nearly atop my backlog again this year? He has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, as a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 8 for Sutter and 7 for Rivera). Sutter pitched more than 107 IP once - Fingers did that 10 consecutive years. Sutter's peak is higher, for sure. But Fingers had a couple of other-worldly years, too. But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immense value.
3. NELLIE FOX - The best of an era at his position. But is this the Sewell argument all over again - one I ultimately found went against Sewell? Ultimately I like Fox better, and Sewell already is a HOMer. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. A lot more seasons than Sewell at middle infield, that helps, too.

4. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen strong years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
5. KEITH HERNANDEZ - Very similar hitter to Beckley - slightly higher peak, a bit less career, and I'm a bit career-oriented. I dont' try to 'pin a number' on a defensive bonus for Hernandez, but there is one. I'd love to see him wait a couple of years, but I can't just downgrade him because I feel that way.
6. JAKE BECKLEY - Ah, the great polarizer. His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, while Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. The biggest issue for him may be the 8 seasons in the 120s - I find that quite valuable, given era and position; others do not.
7. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer Evans (see Evans thread).
8. BRUCE SUTTER - Didn't expect to vote for him, but he did throw 100 IP a year, not 75 like today's closers - and that really adds value. Was only a monster K guy for half his career, made a nice adjustment thereafter to still be effective. May suffer as other relievers (or even better SPs) come along, but so far he just crushed Quisenberry.
9. EDD ROUSH - Has anyone read the new book on him called "Red Legs and Black Sox?" The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW I. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp. Lucky to be in the Hall of Fame, but too good for too long to avoid gaining his (second-ever?) spot on my ballot.
10. CHARLIE KELLER - Continues to climb the ballot of this non-peak voter. Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get Keller onto my ballot for a long time. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. Still, he has a dazzling peak that seems likely to have been longer if not for WW II. Yeah, his career looks funny, but plenty of Negro League guesstimates do, too. The world has a way of getting in the way of neat stats pages.
11. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
12. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - 2nd-best SP remaining. A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
13. DAVE CONCEPCION - Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Still, I have 15 slots to fill.
14. DICK LUNDY - Went back and didn't hate the previous MLEs; even without specific numbers yet, the recognition that he wasn't as walk-o-phobic as we thought sneaks him onto my ballot. Could definitely move up.
15. JIMMY WYNN - Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and just as wildly overrated here. I almost like Reggie Smith better, and surely Johnson, Roush, and Keller were just as good or better. Still, the OPS+s are undeniable, and the fielding/position gives some boost.

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM
CHARLEY JONES - Some sympathy for the contract issues, but it's just not the same as going to war or being the 'wrong' skin color. Therefore, I see his career as too short.
TONY PEREZ - Bounced off the ballot after one year on it. Better peak than Evans in terms of rate, and very similar long careers otherwise. But extra time and better play at 3B made the difference. May never make it back.


NEWBIES
FRED LYNN - Was almost ready to vote for him, and liked his fielding better than Wynn's. But the Wynn edge in offense was enough to grab the last spot.
CHET LEMON - Win Shares must be overrating him. Very good all-around player, but not really an HOM candidate for me.
RICK REUSCHEL - Nice pitcher, at the Tommy John-Jim Kaat level. Koosman-esque. Maybe in my top 30, but won't climb to a ballot spot.

JUST MISSED
BUCKY WALTERS - Slipped back off the ballot again; very borderline. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on occasion. No full penalty for the great defense, but it's an issue.
FRANK HOWARD - An astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons, too. Had five more solid ones as well; I think he had more impact even admitting the fielding demerits in relation to Wynn. Might get on the ballot if one of my OFs gets elected, finally.
JIM RICE - A little better than I've gotten used to expecting. A little more longevity or fielding boost might have made the difference.
GAVY CRAVATH - 4th time off my ballot in about 20 years, in reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. He has some Rice in him. But I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd have been right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. Will return to my ballot.
THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - I have him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.
GRAIG NETTLES - Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.
   36. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: March 21, 2007 at 01:27 AM (#2315058)
1996 Ballot:

1. Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen. He belongs.
2. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove pushes him above Keller.
3. Charlie Keller - Poor man's Kiner. Close with war credit, but Kiner's huge peak was real.
4. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player. Noticed a tiny error in my spreadsheet, which bumps him up here.
5. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? Underrated by the electorate.
6. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan.
7. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles.
8. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
9. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
10. Frank Howard - Now comes the fun part. As a peak guy (even though I count career as well, I lean peak), I couldn't rationalize him so low, especially behind Beckley.
11. Norm Cash - Raw numbers better than Howard, but Cash was platooned.
12. Chuck Klein - Similar to Howard, but how much of it was the Baker Bowl?
13. Tommy John - Just a smidge below Sutton.
14. Elston Howard - He confuses me. My system doesn't like him nearly this much thanks to the intricacies of his career, but my head says he's better than those below him.
15. Phil Rizzuto - The Scooter makes his debut on my ballot. A re-eval of second baseman and shortstops is to thank, and with War Credit, he's aboard. Having him here is a huge credit, as even with the re-evaluation, light hitting glove guys still get less respect than some others here give.

16 - 20: Hernandez, Fingers, Perez, Beckley, Taylor

Required Disclosures:

Fox does not have enough (any?) bat value.
Wynn is in the 20's, I'm not sold on the home/road thing.
Roush played in a weak league, missed a lot of time and doesn't really suit my fancy. He's in the 30's. I like Chris Fluit's JD Drew comp.
Fingers is #17. I don't think we need to elect any relievers between Wilhelm and Gossage. Fingers was not dominant enough.
Beckley is #19, just no peak there.
Hernandez is just off ballot at 16, his advantages with the glove and MVP season make him more valuable than Beckley, but he wasn't a masher at first base, and I'm not huge on first baseman who don't hit substantially better than league average.
Lemon is much better than I remembered or realized, but he's down in the 50-60 range.
Lynn is about as I realized and is in the same range as Lemon.
Reuschel is hanging out in the 40's with Catfish Hunter.
Buckner's only saving grace in my eyes is letting that ball through his legs and allowing me an extra 18 years of torment for Boston fans.
Quis had some peak, but he's nowhere near Rollie, and will not make my consideration set anytime soon.
Boone and White were better than me, but there are 10 year old girls who can make the same distinction.
   37. Rick A. Posted: March 21, 2007 at 01:37 AM (#2315065)
I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position. I do think that WS does miss on occasion, and I give a subjective bump to candidates who I think WS is off on.

PHOM
Cool Papa Bell
Keith Hernandez
Rollie Fingers

1996 ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
4. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
5. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
6. Edd Roush – Better than Carey. Elected PHOM in 1975.
7. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
8. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
9. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
10. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
11. Dizzy Dean –Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
12. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
13. Jimmy Wynn – Another time and place he’d be a HOFer. Elected PHOM in 1985
14. Charlie Keller –Elected PHOM in 1986.
15. Roger Bresnahan – Underrated by me previously. Very good catcher. Elected PHOM in 1976

Required Disclosures
Fingers just misses my ballot and makes my PHOM this year.
Fox in the 20's and could make my PHOM.
Beckley Not a fan. No peak.

New Candidates
Keith Hernandez Just misses my ballot. Maybe my brother was right all those years ago and I was wrong about Hernandez vs. Mattingly. :-( (Haven't looked at Mattingly yet)
Dan Quisenberry I like Sutter and Fingers more.
Fred Lynn Slightly better than Jim Rice, but Rice is nowhere near my ballot.
Rick Reuschel Not as good as Tiant, John or Kaat. Below my top 150.
Lemon, White, Buckner and Boone Too low to be ranked.

Off the ballot
16-20 Cravath,Sutter,Hernandez,Fingers,Newcombe
21-25 Leach,Bond,Mays,Monroe,Fox
26-30 WCooper,Easter,Elliott,Johnson,Traynor
31-35 Singleton,Munson,Scales,Nettles,Tiernan
36-40 FHoward,HSmith,Shocker,MWilliams,Bando
41-45 Doyle,FJones,Perez,Cey,HWilson
46-50 Rizzuto,Schang,McGraw,AWilson,Cepeda
   38. Rusty Priske Posted: March 21, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2315393)
Will do...when I'm back at work. I don't have my spreadsheet with me.

Memory tells me that Keller isn't close, however.
   39. Al Peterson Posted: March 21, 2007 at 08:15 PM (#2315468)
1996 ballot. Not easy filling the bottom of the HOM. Then again, I’m far from the consensus so it is very little of my doing. The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected.

2. Norm Cash (3). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though it stands out from the rest of his work.

3. Tommy Leach (4). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

4. Bobby Bonds (5). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

5. Reggie Smith (7). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup.

6. Keith Hernandez (-). Whiz with the glove, making plays other 1Bmen didn’t attempt. As a hitter line drives, able to face both righties and lefties. Not huge spikes in production but solid output throughout.

7. Roger Bresnahan (8). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

8. Tony Mullane (9). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

9. Bob Johnson (10). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

10. Mickey Welch (11). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey.

11. Alejandro Oms (12). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. Another career lost in translation since the Cuban time can be tricky to compute.

12. Jake Beckley (13). I want to say something substantial about him, add some insight no one else has. Yeah, not really happening. Very good, very long, he’s hardly the worst player out there. And if playing that long was so easy than everyone would have done it.

13. Buddy Bell (14). I’ll go and say he was better than Nettles. Not by much and I could change my mind but that’s where I stand. Underrrated by Win Shares – during his prime he was on some bad teams which in addition underperformed their expected win totals. For an 8 year period his teams underachieved by 32 games. Throw some more WS into his prime and you see a stronger run in the middle of his career. Also, if Darrell Evans was as good a fielder as Buddy Bell then I must have missed something.

14. Carl Mays (15). Good hitting pitcher, aided by run support at high levels. Even with docking for that we’re talking about a pretty good hurler.

15. Bucky Walters (22). Good hitting pitcher, aided by fielding support at high levels for some years. Wartime dominator who did some good things before WWII broke out as well. Decided to take a pitcher over another bat.

16-20: Perez, Poles, Ryan, Rizzuto, Fingers
21-25: Browning, Wynn, Keller, Nettles, Byrd
26-30: Easter, Bancroft, Willis, Shocker, Cey
31-35: Brock, Tiant, Duffy, John, Luque
36-40: Cedeno, Munson, C Jones, Grimes, Ben Taylor
41-45: Schang, Cicotte, Bridges, Elliott, Lundy
46-50: Roush, Tenace, Trout, Clarkson, Doyle

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Roush(#46), Browning (#21), Perez (#16), Charley Jones (#38), Keller (#23), Fingers (#20), Wynn (#22). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. The defense was nice but the offense was lacking – it leaned on the OBP side but not so heavily. Roush is falling through the CF glut. Browning have received ballot spots in the past from me and might again. Perez at #16…oh so close. Like him, fits well with the others from the 70s. Charley Jones gets some of that blacklisted credit, just not enough. Keller depending on the gap filling you do can be Elmer Flick or short of Earl Averill. I’m just not as willing to give those filler years the complete peak value needed to reach the ballot yet. Slightly overrated by the great teams he played on, at least from a WS perspective. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Wynn, just slips some due to not entire time being in CF. Overall, no qualms except maybe Fox and he did have the weak competition argument similar to Sewell.

New guys: Rick Reuschel is probably around 75 but that doesn’t get you far with not many future elections. Fred Lynn could do it all except stay healthy. You can’t get into the HOM that way. Chet Lemon is in Amos Otis territory; good career but no dice. Quiz: oh the quotes. Funny man, sadly missed.
   40. Rob_Wood Posted: March 22, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2315656)
1996 ballot from this highly career voter (with a fairly low replacement level):

1. Jake Beckley - luv the career, though peakless
2. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
3. Graig Nettles - super fielder; I am surprised by his lack of support
4. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
5. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career (where's the luv?)
6. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman for a long time
7. Tony Perez - good career though he was barely an adequate 3B defensively
8. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
9. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
10. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
11. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
12. Charlie Keller - slowly inching his way up my ballot
13. Edd Roush - underrated, very good centerfielder
14. Charley Jones - great player, with lockout credit
15. Keith Hernandez - best fielding first baseman I've ever seen
----------
16-20 RSmith, CKlein, RMaranville, HWilson, LAparicio

Not voting for Browning (around 100th) and Fingers (around 50th).
   41. OCF Posted: March 22, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2315672)
1996 Ballot.

1. Larry Doyle (2, 4, 5, 4, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
2. Keith Hernandez (new) Offensive value comparable (surprisingly so, but he's OBP-heavy) to Cepeda and Cash, with better defense.
3. Jimmy Wynn (4, 6, 7, 6, 5) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
4. George Van Haltren (5, 7, 8, 7, 6) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
5. Tommy Bridges (6, 8, 9, 8, 7) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
6. Bucky Walters (7, 9, 10, 9, 8) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
7. Orlando Cepeda (8, 10, 11, 10, 9) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
8. Norm Cash (9, 11, 12, 11, 10) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
9. Frank Howard (10, 12, 13, 12, 11) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
10. Lou Brock (13, 13, 14, 13, 12) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
11. Sal Bando (14, 14, 15, 14, 13) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
12. Bob Elliott (15, 15, 16, 15, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
13. Tony Perez (-, 16, 17, 16, 15) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
14. Rusty Staub (12, 17, 18, 17, 16) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
15. Luis Tiant (16, 18, 19, 18, 17) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
16. Reggie Smith (17, 19, 20, 19, 18) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
17. Jake Beckley (18, 20, 21, 20, 19) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
18. Tommy John (----, 20) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
19. Darrell Porter (--, 22, 21, 21) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
20. Graig Nettles (---, 22, 22) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
21. Ken Singleton (19, 21, 23, 23, 23) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
22. Ron Cey (--, 24, 25, 24) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
23. Rollie Fingers (20, 22, 25, 25, 25) I'll do a more extensive reevaluation when we get to Gossage.
24. Gene Tenace (21, 23, 26, 26, 26) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
25. Dick Redding (22, 24, 27, 27, 27)
26. Luis Aparicio (23, 25, 28, 28, 28) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
27. Bobby Bonds (24, 26, 29, 29, 29) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
28. Hugh Duffy (25, 27, 30, 30, 30) I did vote for him for nearly 50 years, but we've just had too many good candidates since then.
29. Rick Reuschel (new) Not that different from Koosman in my system so far, but I haven't really corrected for defensive support.
30. Rabbit Maranville (26, 26, 28, --)

Top tenners not voting for: Keller (like Chance or McGraw) just has too few games played. Fox and Roush are in the 30's, just off the ones listed. I supported Stovey over Browning long ago because he seemed much better at scoring runs; Browning was nothing special there.

Chet Lemon: GM's who can get players this good thrive. But on an HoM scale, he looks peakless.

Fred Lynn: might have been a candidate if he could have stayed in the lineup. You can say that about Chance and McGraw, as well.

Frank White: allegedly comparable to Mazeroski, but his bat doesn't measure up even to that.

Bill Buckner: for a first baseman, a comparison of his offensive value to Ozzie Smith isn't what you want to hear.

Bob Boone: makes Rick Ferrell look like a good hitter.

Dan Quisenberry: a tremendous influence on KC's performance in the 80's. Comparable to Sutter. I'm still wary of relievers.

John Tudor: not enough IP in his career to make him a candidate, but he was always good, even in Boston, and he had one glorious season in 1985 - but he couldn't come up with that one last game in October to cap it off. Led the NL in shutouts that year with 10 to Gooden's 8. But then Gooden had two other games in which he pitched at least 9 innings without ever allowing a run - but Tudor had one of those as well. [Of course, there's no possible argument about the 1985 NL CY vote - Gooden had to be unanimous, Tudor should have been unanimous 2nd.]

Mike Scott: his effective career is an eyeblink, even compared to someone like Dean. But for a moment there, he was the most feared pitcher in baseball.
   42. TomH Posted: March 22, 2007 at 12:21 PM (#2315757)
1996 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Jake Beckley (2) [9]
Great career.
2- John McGraw (3) [24]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base.
3- Bucky Walters (5) [14]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too
4- Frank Chance (6) [61]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath.</u>
From 1903-1906, only Honus Wagner among non-pitchers had more Win Shares than Frank Chance. In that time, Chance collected 120 WS in only 503 games, which would be the 2nd highest career WS rate ever (behind the Babe). Yes, obviously it was only 4 years, but somehow I hardly ever hear Chance mentioned as a peak candidate, despite the fact that he had a run as arguably the 2nd-best player in the major leagues, and 2nd only because of the existence of Superman.
5- Bob Johnson (7) [13]
Very good long prime.
6- Keith Hernandez {new}
Truly underrated as a player; among long-career 1Bmen, clearly in the top 20 in offense-only, possibly top 15. His OWP was almost .650, and not many can top that among guys who played 1800 or more games. Add in superlative defense, and you’ve got a HoM-er.
OTOH…. how many HoM-ers were traded for squat, with good reason, while in their primes? Hello? That’s one ugly black mark on the resume. As a point of comparison, I’ll use a guy who gets blasted a lot here for being a mistake, Bill Terry. Terry was a GREAT hitter. A much better player during his prime than Keith. With what I know I hindsight about their careers, if I were starting a team and could pick either young first baseman, I’d take Terry, settling for 9 great years and no drug issues in my clubhouse.
7- George Van Haltren (9) [20]
<u>Three Hundred and Eighty</u> (schedule adjusted) Win Shares.
8- Dick Redding (8) [15]
Reasonable guess.
9- Charlie Keller (10) [4]
MiL credit and a pinch of great World Series stats gets him on.
10- Jimmy Wynn (11) [5]
He looks a litle better than Smith or Bonds or Oms, and we HAVE elected a ton of OFers. I’m okay with the Toy Cannon, but a bit lukewarm.
11- Louis Tiant (13) [28]
Four postseason starts. Averaged 8½ innings, 2.6 ERA, & his team won all 4 games. Take THAT, Bob Gibson and Jack Morris!
12- Roger Bresnahan (12) [19]
Best catcher of his era. Position flexibility not a minus.
13- Rollie Fingers (14) [10]
Post-season credit and inherited runners stranded get him on the ballot.
14- Burleigh Grimes (off) [23]
15- Bill Monroe (15) [49]
Dominant in his day.

Other newbies: Lynn, Reuschel, Lemon; nice, but none of them make my top 60.

Returning top 10ers:

Edd Roush – George Van Haltren began his career almost a year later in age than Roush. And ended his career a year earlier. In that shorter period of time, Van Haltren gained more Win Shares, and more WARP (either W1 or W3, take your pick) than Roush. Apparently a majority of our voters think both of the uber-stat systems are in error in their assessment. Apparently I disagree with the majority of our voters.

Nellie Fox is around 20; not far from Aparicio, Rizzuto, Maranville, Bancroft, and Concepcion. I’d just as soon have Bill Monroe.

Pete Browning – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman. Do we want to elect a guy based on dominating a minor league? Van Haltren had as good an offensive career from age 25 on, and was better with the glove.
   43. Rusty Priske Posted: March 22, 2007 at 01:03 PM (#2315763)
Back at work...I checked and my memory on Keller was accurate. He has dropped off my consideration set because he isn't anywhere close.

Six full seasons isn't enough for me.
   44. Al Peterson Posted: March 22, 2007 at 02:41 PM (#2315816)
From TomH's ballot:

From 1903-1906, only Honus Wagner among non-pitchers had more Win Shares than Frank Chance. In that time, Chance collected 120 WS in only 503 games, which would be the 2nd highest career WS rate ever (behind the Babe). Yes, obviously it was only 4 years, but somehow I hardly ever hear Chance mentioned as a peak candidate, despite the fact that he had a run as arguably the 2nd-best player in the major leagues, and 2nd only because of the existence of Superman.

Found it quite interesting and a good mark for Chance. Just how many did Wagner have? 170!! Talk about lapping the field. Person to check I thought of was Nap Lajoie. He had 119 WS but did it in only 482 games. Another 1903-1906 stalwart in the vicinity was Cy Seymour at 117.

Oh, and for pitchers Happy Jack Chesbro wants to announce he too had 120 WS over those 4 years and is currently writing his HOM acceptance speech.

Chance does have the advantage of being in from the 1B drought but to hang ones hat on one 4-year span might not be enough. If you're peak heavy then maybe...
   45. rico vanian Posted: March 22, 2007 at 05:47 PM (#2315982)
I take a combination of career and peak and mix em up like gumbo.


1) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
2) Chuck Klein – 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
3) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
4) Pie Trayner – .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
5) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
6) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
7) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
8) Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
9) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
10) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
11) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller gets more votes than him.
12) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
13) Keith Hernandez – Very good hitter, great hitter, nailed Elaine Benes.
14) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
15) Bill Buckner – If not for that one error, what would his legacy be?

No soup for…
16) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.
17) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
18) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
19) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
20) Edd Roush – I like Rice better.
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
24) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
25) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
26) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
27) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
28) Tommy John &
29) Jim Kaat &
30) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
31) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
32) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
33) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
34) Vida Blue – What might have been…
35) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
36) Don Baylor &
37) Reggie Smith &
38) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons
39) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
40) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
41) Cecil Cooper – He had a heckuva peak. As a Yankees fan, I absolutely hated seeing him come up. As scary to any Yankees fan in the early 80’s as David Ortiz is now.
   46. rico vanian Posted: March 22, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2315991)
ps- the Hernandez comment at #13 should have read:
13) Keith Hernandez – Very good hitter, FIELDER, nailed Elaine Benes.
   47. rawagman Posted: March 22, 2007 at 06:00 PM (#2315998)
rico - Garvey andBuckner?!?!?!? You sure about that? How do you begin to justify?
Forget Garvey...Buckner!?!?! Who cares about the error. He was simply not a great player by any stretch of the imagination.
   48. Daryn Posted: March 22, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2316005)
If not for that one error, what would his legacy be?

As the worst player ever with that many at bats?

You have to be good to get as many opportunities to be mediocre as he did, but I'm not sure that qualifies for even the HOVG.
   49. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 22, 2007 at 07:14 PM (#2316080)
15) Bill Buckner – If not for that one error, what would his legacy be?


Is this a sympathy vote for him?
   50. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 22, 2007 at 07:22 PM (#2316091)
As the worst player ever with that many at bats?


He didn't have a great peak and his career numbers aren't anything special. Since you have Eagle Eye #16, maybe you should think about switching them (BTW, I don't have Beckley on my ballot). I would think even the worst enemy here of Beckley feels he's vastly superior to Billy Buck.
   51. Guapo Posted: March 22, 2007 at 07:25 PM (#2316095)
Is this the end of Rico?
   52. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 22, 2007 at 07:29 PM (#2316099)
Is this the end of Rico?


Nah, Rico is okay with us, see? He just needs to get on board with the rest of the boys, see?

;-)
   53. Chris Cobb Posted: March 22, 2007 at 08:09 PM (#2316144)
Some quick comparisons

Bill Buckner 10033 PA, 99 OPS+, 29 BRAA career
Tony Perez 10861 PA, 122 OPS+, 371 BRAA career
Rusty Staub 11229 PA, 124 OPS+, 451 BRAA career
Jake Beckley 10470 PA, 125 OPS+, 368 BRAA career

These three other long career player have 20+ points of OPS+ on Buckner. Converting this into offensive wins,

Perez is about 37 wins better than Buckner
Staub is about 45 wins better than Buckner
Beckley is about 37 wins better than Buckner

If you like traditional counting stats, Buckner has the fewest hits, the fewest extra base hits, and the fewest walks.

Perez is at #26 on Rico Vanian's ballot, with his success as a hitter attributed to his being in the lineup with Rose, Morgan, and Bench
Staub does not make the top 40
Beckely is #16.

Given that Buckner was worse defensively than Perez and Beckley at first, and is 45 wins worse as a hitter than Staub, I don't see how this ranking can be supported by any argument recognizable as reasonable. I'd say that Rico ought to be obligated to reconsider this one.
   54. Mark Donelson Posted: March 22, 2007 at 08:25 PM (#2316152)
As scary to any Yankees fan in the early 80’s as David Ortiz is now.

Hmm. I was a Yankees fan in the early 80s, and I don't remember it that way. Cooper was a fine, fine player, and hit well against the Yanks as I recall, but the only guy I recall having Ortiz-like feelings about in that period was George Brett. In fact, I recall being outraged when Rob Neyer compared Mattingly to Cooper careerwise in the mid-90s. (I have since become more enlightened.)

I do remember the Brewers' pitchers giving the Yanks fits, though. Caldwell, Vuckovich, and Moose Haas.
   55. rawagman Posted: March 22, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2316157)
I take a combination of career and peak and mix em up like gumbo.

Pass the pepto bismol.
rico - with all due respect, could you provide us with some more details as to what you look for in a player when voting. Many, if not all, of us are quite astonished at the presence of Bill Buckner on your ballot. You ask how we would think of Buckner without that error? The unsabermetrically (even a little bit) inclined might like the 3 seaso0ns with 100+ RBIs. Maybe the 6 years with an average above .300. But even that fan would be able to find 30-300 better candidates than Buckner on this ballot. Without the error, Bill Buckner is in the running (top 5) for worst position player with a long career ever.

WAIT!!! I found something good in his favour. Bill Buckner was one of the toughest strikeouts around for quite awhile. In 1974, he stole 31 bases, walked 30 times and struck out 24 times. Pretty impressive. Led the league in AB/K 4 times. 7 other times in the top 10. Is that why you placed him so high?
   56. Juan V Posted: March 22, 2007 at 08:56 PM (#2316178)
Not good enough to dislodge yest from the bottom of the consensus scores lists... ;-)
   57. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 22, 2007 at 09:20 PM (#2316200)
Maybe rico and yest are really the same person. Maybe yest made up rico to taunt us in light of our many inquiries into his ballots?

So the question: will rico (or yest as it might be) allow his system to be subpoeaned in front of Henry Waxman's committee on Bucknerism? ; )
   58. DL from MN Posted: March 22, 2007 at 09:49 PM (#2316223)
Rico's ballot v. my ballot
1) Nellie Fox (117)
2) Chuck Klein (74)
3) Burleigh Grimes (77)
4) Pie Trayner (103)
5) Luis Aparicio (not in consideration set)
6) Rollie Fingers (29 with all sorts of bonus credit)
7) Lou Brock (107)
8) Ernie Lombardi (135)
9) Sam Rice (80)
10) Phil Rizzuto (67)
11) Jim Rice (65)
12) Gavvy Cravath (12!)
13) Keith Hernandez (2)
14) Steve Garvey (128)
15) Bill Buckner (not in consideration set and far below Aparicio)

The size of the hall would have to more than triple before I consider Bill Buckner. At that point you could call it the Hall of Players Whose Rookie Card Isn't a Common.
   59. DL from MN Posted: March 22, 2007 at 10:09 PM (#2316241)
Of course I just checked the 1996 HoF balloting and Buckner got 10 votes. Darrell Evans got 8 votes in 1995 and Bill Freehan got 2 in 1982.
   60. Daryn Posted: March 22, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2316271)
Perez 10861 PA, 122 OPS+, 371 BRAA career
Rusty Staub 11229 PA, 124 OPS+, 451 BRAA career
Jake Beckley 10470 PA, 125 OPS+, 368 BRAA career


Chris has questioned me on Staub before -- I have Beckley 2, Perez 5 and Staub outside my top 30. I think I have to reevaluate Staub.
   61. Howie Menckel Posted: March 23, 2007 at 12:30 AM (#2316322)
"7) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.

No soup for…
16) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits."
...................

I absolutely think it's fair to penalize Beckley (2930 hits) for his playing 154-game skeds (and fewer). If he was any good, he'd have convinced the commish to change to 162 games, as Brock did after the 1961 season.

:)
   62. rico vanian Posted: March 23, 2007 at 03:01 AM (#2316435)
Wow, I think I've voted for the last 12 or so elections and this is the first time I've ever gotten my arse kicked like this. I feel so honored.
especially for a guy who was 15th on my ballot.
I dunno...Buckner had a long career, good career stats, led the league in a couple of different stats, accumulated some solid seasons along the way.

I'm getting impeached for one selection?
And no I'm not Yest, I don't particularly overvalue fielding.

If it pleases the jury, just eliminate my ballot...it's not really worth the hassle.

Peace out
   63. DanG Posted: March 23, 2007 at 04:07 AM (#2316459)
I don't think rico ever "got it".
   64. Chris Cobb Posted: March 23, 2007 at 04:22 AM (#2316463)
I dunno...Buckner had a long career, good career stats, led the league in a couple of different stats, accumulated some solid seasons along the way.

Well, the problem folks are having is that there are a lot of guys like this who are eligible. The mere fact that Buckner has these things doesn't necessarily make him ballot-worthy.

I'm getting impeached for one selection?

You're not getting impeached, but folks have asked questions about your ballot. If it makes you feel any better, pretty much all questions about ballots focus on a single ranking. In a backlog election, every vote may affect the outcome, so the voters tend to examine ballots carefully in these years. Also, placement of new candidates is more likely to draw scrutiny, as a player's initial placement in the rankings will affect his chances of election greatly. Giving a #15 vote as a tip-of-the-cap to an obviously unelectable player was something that a few voters tended to do in the early years, and it was frowned on then, so, if that was a factor in your decision, you are continuing an ancient, honorable, but not permissible, tradition.

If it pleases the jury, just eliminate my ballot...it's not really worth the hassle.

As John suggested, if you flipped your #15 and #16 spots, I suspect the question of the ballot's validity would probably be put to rest. We may kvetch about below-ballot rank order, but the 15 names on ballot are all that counts.

Peace out

I hope you'll be back in on the project soon, even if you decline to revise your ballot for this election.
   65. yest Posted: March 23, 2007 at 04:42 AM (#2316472)
Maybe rico and yest are really the same person. Maybe yest made up rico to taunt us in light of our many inquiries into his ballots?


10) Phil Rizzuto
15) Bill Buckner


both of them aren't in my top 150

I'm getting impeached for one selection?

If it pleases the jury, just eliminate my ballot...it's not really worth the hassle.

Peace out

don't quit keep on with your positions as long as you belive them to be right. eventualy people might even partily warm up to it.

after all George Sisler got elected


41) Cecil Cooper – He had a heckuva peak. As a Yankees fan, I absolutely hated seeing him come up. As scary to any Yankees fan in the early 80’s as David Ortiz is now.

the only one's worse were Brett and Yount (though not by much)
   66. sunnyday2 Posted: March 23, 2007 at 11:02 AM (#2316538)
I don't know what rico is going to do but...

My understanding would be that his ballot will count, yes,even the six points for Billy B.

So I would say to rico: You can tune out the stuff and sit tight, no problem.

Still, "is this the end of rico" is one of the better lines in the whole HoM project.
   67. rawagman Posted: March 23, 2007 at 11:45 AM (#2316542)
Until I hear otherwise, I have counted rico's ballot in its entirely in my tabulations.
   68. andrew siegel Posted: March 23, 2007 at 11:55 AM (#2316546)
Rico's ballot should count. As far as I always understood our procedures, everyone's vote counts no matter whho they vote for, as long as they don't violate a few specific rules. If someone's votes are completely irrational in toto, we are to have a discussion as to whether to exclude the voter or not. A vote for Buckner without votes for Staub, Perez, Beckley, etc. is probably bad enough to be one data point for exclusion but you need ten or twenty such data points before I would even think about excluding a voter.
   69. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 12:13 PM (#2316551)
Rico's ballot should count.

No one said it wouldn't or even hinted at that proposition. We're supposed to ask questions so that we arrive at the best candidates on our ballots.

With that said, I would take any of Rico's #'s 16-41 easily over Buckner. Again, Beckley destroys Buckner as a player - why is he behind him?
   70. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 12:17 PM (#2316552)
don't quit keep on with your positions as long as you belive them to be right. eventualy people might even partily warm up to it.

after all George Sisler got elected


Except Buckner was no where near the player Gorgeous George was.
   71. Daryn Posted: March 23, 2007 at 12:31 PM (#2316558)
I'd say that Rico ought to be obligated to reconsider this one.

I read this as at least hinting at the proposition that rico's ballot should not count.
   72. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 12:44 PM (#2316566)
I'd say that Rico ought to be obligated to reconsider this one.

I read this as at least hinting at the proposition that rico's ballot should not count.


Many of us (including myself) have been asked to reconsider a ballot at one time without the threat of having that ballot not count.
   73. Daryn Posted: March 23, 2007 at 01:08 PM (#2316575)
Were you asked or obligated?
   74. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 01:20 PM (#2316578)
Were you asked or obligated?

I honestly don't remember. Either way, I wouldn't have considered it a threat.

This is a moot point anyway, since I have zero intention of not allowing Rico's ballot. Unless he rethinks his ballot, his ballot stays.
   75. Chris Cobb Posted: March 23, 2007 at 01:23 PM (#2316581)
From the Constitution:

The HoM ballot committee will review and tally all ballots. The committee will identify any obviously unintelligent or especially questionable votes (e.g., voting for Clay Bellinger). The committee would then email the voter asking him to re-submit an adjusted ballot. If the voter chooses not to do so, the ballot committee has the authority to exclude the voter’s entire ballot and/or the specific unintelligent or questionable votes.

In practice, we operate as a committee of the whole on this one, without actual authority to exclude ballots, an authority that still resides with the Commissioner. The question for the "the committee" is -- is a vote for Bill Buckner an "obviously unintelligent or especially questionable vote," such that we think the Commissioner ought to ake a call on the validity of the ballot? Obviously a vote fore Buckner is not the equivalent of a vote for Clay Bellinger: Buckner has a discussion thread, Buckner has 2700 hits, etc. However, it seems a vote that _no other_ voter can see a rational justification for. Does that rise to the standard of "especially questionable"? I think this is a matter for Joe to weigh in about.

My sense of the situation--

Many voters have asked Rico Vanian to reconsider in light of the obvious problems with his vote for Buckner.

Rico Vanian, rather than reconsider, has said that his ballot should be eliminated.

There is a procedural question about whether his vote for Buckner should be treated as an invalid vote.

There is a procedural question about whether his statement that his ballot should be eliminated should be honored, since it may have been given under the mistaken impression that his ballot would be disqualified if he did not alter it.

My sense of what ought to be done:

Since Rico has said that his ballot should be withdrawn, I think it has to be considered withdrawn.

It ought to be clarified , however, that although the ballot has been questioned, it has not been invalidated.

With that clarification, Rico might want to reconsider his withdrawal of his ballot.

It would be helpful for Joe to weigh in on the subject of whether a vote for Buckner is "especially questionable" or not.

I would call it an "especially questionable" vote, but I recognize that I probably have a lower threshold for "special questionability" than do most voters.
   76. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 01:34 PM (#2316589)
Since Rico has said that his ballot should be withdrawn, I think it has to be considered withdrawn.


I don't know what Joe will think about this, but I have no intention of disallowing his ballot. Not to pick on my friend yest :-), but his overall ballots have been more puzzling to our more sabermetrical thought patterns than anything that Rico has submitted, but we have allowed each one of his.

The only thing that I would ask of Rico is to explain his vote a little bit better than he has. But other than that, I don't see what else we should do.
   77. rico vanian Posted: March 23, 2007 at 02:18 PM (#2316606)
revised

1) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
2) Chuck Klein – 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
3) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
4) Pie Trayner – .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
5) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
6) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
7) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as much as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
8) Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
9) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
10) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
11) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller gets more votes than him.
12) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
13) Keith Hernandez – Very good hitter, great fielder, nailed Elaine Benes.
14) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
15) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits. He was freakin' awesome!
____________________________________________________________________
16) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
19) Edd Roush – I like Rice better.
20) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
21) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
22) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished. My memories of Munson involve him coming out of the clubhuse after a game at Shea in 1975 when Yankee Stadium was being renovated). He cursed out a kid with Down's syndrome who wanted an autograph.
23) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
24) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
25) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
26) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
27) Tommy John &
28) Jim Kaat &
29) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
30) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
31) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
32) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
33) Vida Blue – What might have been…
34) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
35) Don Baylor &
36) Reggie Smith &
37) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons
38) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
39) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
40) Cecil Cooper – He had a heckuva peak. As a Yankees fan, I absolutely hated seeing him come up. Of course, other Yankee fans might have viewed him as the second coming of Mario Mendoza and disagree. In fact, he might have completely sucked. But I remember differently. Of course, it might have been because I was so young, and Cecil Cooper was so big. And he carried a big wooden bat.

1986) Bill Buckner- Absolutely sucked. The very thought of Buckner qualifying for anything other than total derision is absurd. Buckner is garbage wrapped in skin.
   78. DavidFoss Posted: March 23, 2007 at 02:59 PM (#2316629)
1986) Bill Buckner- Absolutely sucked. The very thought of Buckner qualifying for anything other than total derision is absurd. Buckner is garbage wrapped in skin.

:-)

He did get a thread and I do remember him being regarded as a "minor star" before the error. I was actually shocked that he had only been to one all-star game.

Sabermetrically, he was almost perennially a below average hitter for his position. (The main exceptions being 1974 and 1981). He does rank as the worst RCAP in history for a guy with 10000 PA. Which surprised me again. I know a lot of minor stars of the past turned out to be overrated in retrospect, but I didn't expect a "worst" to pop up out of the SBE. Dropping the requirement to 9000 PA, Buckner is easily passed in worst RCAP by glovemen Doc Cramer and Tommy Corcoran as well as first basement Charlie Grimm. I'd rate Grimm as worse than Buckner.

Anyhow, I'm beating a dead horse here... but I do remember him being a "name".
   79. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 03:04 PM (#2316632)
1986) Bill Buckner- Absolutely sucked. The very thought of Buckner qualifying for anything other than total derision is absurd. Buckner is garbage wrapped in skin.

:-)


Glad to see that emoticon, Rico. :-D
   80. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 23, 2007 at 03:07 PM (#2316633)
It would be helpful for Joe to weigh in on the subject of whether a vote for Buckner is "especially questionable" or not.

I would call it an "especially questionable" vote, but I recognize that I probably have a lower threshold for "special questionability" than do most voters.


I don't think a 15th place vote for Bucks rises to the bar of extraordinarily questionable by any stretch. He may have been a sub-average player but he has markers of the sort that can be reasonably described as meriting consideration. The Clay Bellinger example in our constitution makes it abundantly clear what kind of player we're talking about: guys with zero credentials who are obviously intended as pet-favorites or as jokes or as gum in the wheel of progress.

I think rico's crazy to have Buckner on board, even at 15th, but as a voter in good standing, I don't think that vote rises to the level of ludicrousness that the constitutional example suggests. I mean it passes the stink test in some way. We've allowed weirder ones. And so I support John's defense of rico's original ballot on its own merits and his decision to ignore any implications of striking the ballot. However, more clarification from rico about his decision on Buckner would also have been helpful, as it almost always is in these types of cases.

In these situations it's easy for feelings to get hurt, and I'm almost certain that no one in this bunch wants to hurt anyone's feelings. I think we're all just on-mission here, and sometimes we're zealous. Not overzealous, just zealous...after all, we've seen how not intervening and people pleasing has ruined the HOF's credibility.
   81. ronw Posted: March 23, 2007 at 03:44 PM (#2316653)
Chris, I respect your opinion and baseball knowledge, but I think that you are being way too self-righteous with your ballot policing. Criticism is one thing, but obliging a relatively stable participant to reconsider a ballot is just plain wrong.

From above:

However, it seems a vote that _no other_ voter can see a rational justification for.

Chris, I note that you used to feature Bobo Newsom pretty prominently on your ballot when no one else saw it. karl is the only one to vote for Sam Leever. yest had a Tony Oliva fiasco a few years ago.

I think rico gave a reason. He said Buckner had a long career, good career stats, led the league in a couple of different stats, accumulated some solid seasons along the way.

All of us may disagree with the reason, but I think that the original ballot should stand. (I realize Rico revised his ballot).

If we are going to bring up the "Hall of Merit ballot committee" again lets actually form it instead of just arbitrarily deciding that In practice, we operate as a committee of the whole on this one... In other words,if we're going to cite the Constitution against a ballot, lets actually follow it. I want to serve on that committee, particularly so I can defend voters from having their ballots disregarded.

If this sounds a little bitter, it is because I am a bit upset about this practice. Something really bothers me when a long-time voter is "obligated" to reconsider his ballot. Criticizing the ballot is fine, but forcing someone who has participated for several months or years to reconsider is insulting to the voter, because it assumes that the voter had not actually considered his ballot. In a way, it is insulting to all of us. Do you assume that I don't consider my ballot? What about Rob Wood, Ken Fischer, who post limited explanations and/or don't post often.
   82. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: March 23, 2007 at 04:04 PM (#2316674)
I, for one, would really appreciate it if the voters who only post a sentence or phrase with their ballots would take the time to explain their selections more thoroughly, in particular explaining why they've chosen one backlog player in a "category" (long-career gloves at SS, high-peak pitchers, defensively challenged sluggers, etc.) over his comparables.
   83. Rusty Priske Posted: March 23, 2007 at 04:35 PM (#2316696)
Stand by your ballot, Rico.

I don't agree with it, but I don't agree with lots of the votes on here (and a lot of people don't agree with mine). That is why we vote.
   84. sunnyday2 Posted: March 23, 2007 at 04:43 PM (#2316700)
Shall the "is this the end of rico" debate now officially move to the discussion thread? ;-)

The 6 points for Beckley, it should be noted, howsomever, could be a difference-maker. It is up to Rico and/or Joe which ballot to accept, certainly not up to me. But those 6 votes could be a difference-maker. Best not to wait to tabulate and find that it is so.
   85. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2316757)
Furthermore, I don't see why Rico's 2nd ballot should be any more acceptable than his first. He knocked Buckner down almost 2000 places. That placement was tongue-in-cheek, but even if he was convinced Buckner is not that meritorious (and I don't think he has been), why didn't he put him 20th, or 40th? It seems this is just a ballot to appease other voters, and not an accurate depiction of his thoughts.


Where he has Buckner off the ballot is meaningless and unnecessary, since he's not (or will ever be) a top-ten returnee. But I do agree with the sentiment of your last sentence. If Rico honestly feels that Buckner deserves a 15th-place vote, then he should have defended it. Of course, Billy Buck may have been the recipient of a "gift" vote (which we have had a few in the past, though those voters may have thought no one had noticed them ;-)and not really a serious candidate on his ballot. I honestly can't tell since Rico didn't give us a reason for Buckner instead of, for example, any of the candidates he had listed at numbers 16-41.
   86. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 06:11 PM (#2316758)
But those 6 votes could be a difference-maker.


That would be a major upset, Marc. IOW, I wouldn't bet any money on that.
   87. Daryn Posted: March 23, 2007 at 06:27 PM (#2316764)
For the record, I don't think the vote for Buckner was the worst vote we have seen. I just think it was unusual given that the ballot did not include Beckley, Perez and Staub, real comparables who seem to stand above Buckner. I'd like to see the original ballot back too (unless it was originally a tip of the hat token vote), and I am a friend of Beckley's.
   88. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 23, 2007 at 06:33 PM (#2316766)
unless it was originally a tip of the hat token vote


That's the phrase I was looking for, Daryn. I like that better than referring to it as a gift vote.
   89. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: March 23, 2007 at 07:31 PM (#2316798)
I like it when someone votes away from the consensus. Remember Dickey Pearce and Rube Waddell and everyone else who floundered in the lower echelon before eventually getting elected. I'm hoping Rico's caught something about Buckner that everyone else has missed. I wish he'd explain what it is. I also agree with Zarqawi's comment that the explanations are often too vague. Too bad he's not the real Zarqawi.
   90. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 23, 2007 at 07:40 PM (#2316807)
1. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

2. Elston Howard: I’ve finally incorporated MLEs into my new system, and Howard benefits extensively. He vaults upward from around Munson to around Simmons.

3. Alejandro Oms: An outstanding CFer of the 1920s in the NgLs and CWL. Oms may not have a superior peak (it’ll be a long time before we can assess that with a lot of certainty), but we know now that he had a ton of career value to go with enough peak that he’s a wonderful prime/career candidate.

4. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons. I’m becoming more comfortable with the conclusions of my Keltner-based system, and this vote is reflective of that.

5. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

6. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

7. Herman Long: Highest rated shortstop out there for me; I’ve never quite understood why he’s not in the same discussion as Bancroft and Sewell. On the other hand, with Dan’s queries in mind, I’ve spotted him lower on the ballot than I had originally intended.

8. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

9. Keith Hernandez: Best damn 1B I ever watched. Ain’t too many 1Bs you can cite for their fielding excellence, but he’s one. And his bat, while not exactly flashy, was highly effective in the line drives and walks department. He’d have been a perfect number two hitter for a team with a great leadoff man. 40% of the time you’d end up with first and third after a liner through the hole or first and second after a Hernandez walk. Or something like that. The truth is, however, that with his long but not low prime he’s not quite Bill Terry, but he’s better than Sisler (in my system), and that qualifies him fully for the HOM because Sisler is pretty much on the wrong side of the bubble. (Which side would that be anyway?)

10. Edd Roush: He and Duffy score the same in this system, and they are right in the middle of the HOM-level pack of CFs. This rating only includes holdout credit tangentially as a tie-breaker between Edd and Hugh.

11. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a solid selection.

12. Gavy Cravath: The inclusion of MLE credit pushes Cravath northward on my ballot, too. He went from off-ballot (around Reggie Smith or Bobby Murcer) to the range of the very much electable (between Singleton and Goslin). But that’s what happens when you translate a guy’s peak years and add them to his resume.

13. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

14. Sal Bando (11th) 35 pts: There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that

a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey
Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

15. Bobby Bonds: Percolation brings Bonds to the last slot on my ballot again. It was him or Burns. Both offer the same package of stuff: lots of All-Star years, positional dominance, good MVP performances, strong primes. I prefer Bonds personally, though the system likes Burns better. I think there’s enough little tie breakers (strength of league, timeline, that kind of stuff) that Bonds is just a nose past Burns. But I’m really rationalizing my gut feeling on this one. And I like misunderstood types, lest we forget. Or yest we forget, as it were. But really they are equivalent candidates to my mind, and I just went with the one I like better.

NEW GUYS
-Chet Lemon: The Mike Cameron of his day; not good enough.
-Fred Lynn: The Cliff Floyd of his day…at least physically. Better all around player in every way, of course. He had some great years, but not enough to compete with the borderline guys at CF like Wally Berger or Hackmatack Wilson. Curiously his name is the name of a town right outside Boston, in fact, he’s a member of the All-Boston-Metro Team

C: Quincy Trouppe
1B: Greg Norton
2B: Willie Randolph
3B: Mike Lowell
SS: Adam Everett
LF: Daryl Boston
CF: Fred Lynn
RF: Billy Hamilton
SP: Tim Wakefield
SP: Brian Lawrence
SP: Eric Milton
RP: Bob Stanley

-Frank White: Bill James’ favorite. I agree with James that White and Maz are really similar candidates. That’s why I vote for neither.
-Bill Buckner: We didn’t elect Harry Buckner either…. It’s amazing that guys like Buckner, Cramer, Corcoran could get so many at bats while the Bilkos, Petagines, and Raths are mired in the minors.
-Bob Boone: I guess framing pitches can’t get you into the HOM. Nor can paternity.
-Dan Quisenberry: Toughest new guy for me. He scores very well in my reliever-only rankings, top 5, ahead of Fingers. But as I say below, I’m not convinced we should putting more than two or three in. No Sutter? No Fingers? No Quis. Plus my system isn’t capturing the information about his IHR problems. So there’s reason for skepticism.
-Rick Reuschel: Needed either those missing injury years or a couple big, big years for me. He’s still one of the best 100-150 pitchers out there, and that’s something.


RETURNING FAVORITES
-Nellie Fox: Just off my ballot, a very solid HOM citizen some day.
-Pete Browning: Just off my ballot, a very solid, if drunken, HOM citizen some day.
-Jimmy Wynn: Just off my ballot, a very solid HOM citizen some day, but with big, awesome sideburns.
-Charlie Keller: He's just far enough off that 1+ season of war credit doesn't push his profile over the in/out line. But he’s better than Jim Rice for sure.
-Rollie Fingers: I think we'll be overpopulating RP if we choose Fingers and Gossage from their era.
-Jake Beckley: Never heard of him.
   91. DanG Posted: March 23, 2007 at 07:55 PM (#2316818)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady excellence over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #3 and #13 were elected. New exhibits for Buckner. The class of 1996 has no shoo-ins, with Hernandez, Quisenberry, Reuschel and Lynn heading the newbies. The HoM shifts to the right(fielders) in 1997, when Dwight Evans and Dave Parker grace the ballot. A strong class in 1998 with shoo-ins Carter and Blyleven, as well as Stieb and Randolph. Then the super class of 1999.

1) Tony Perez (2,4,5) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great.

2) Keith Hernandez – Tossup with Perez. Drug involvement hurt his teams somewhat, so he loses the coin flip.

3) George Van Haltren (4,5,6) – We’ve now elected 13 players who were behind him in 1970. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? In six years, 1982 to 1988, he went from the #6 unelected player to #13. Now in his 88th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Two non-HoMers here, Players with 3400 times on base 1871-1909:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

4) Edd Roush (5,6,7) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Played 89.2% of his games in CF. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. The last decade has seen him move into position for eventual election. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

5) Tommy Leach (6,7,8) – Poised to finish in the top twenty for the second time since 1949, his candidacy’s “not dead yet”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

6) Jake Beckley (7,8,9) - We’ve now elected 7 players who were behind him in 1977. In 31 HoM elections JB is the leading unelected player. He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top 15 seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era; after the top two years JB gradually blows them all away:
23-21-21-20-19/19-18-18-18-17/17-17-16-16-15 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19/19-18-17-17-14/13-10—8—2—1 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19/19-17-17-17-15/12—9—9—7—7 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16/14-13-13-12-11/11—6—0—0—0 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16/13-12-11-11-10/09—8—2—0—0 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17/12-12-10-10-10/09—9—9—4—2 J. Doyle

7) Charlie Keller (8,9,10) – This could be his year. He’s Dick Allen without the baggage. Kiner’s election should cinch his. Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with OPS within .090 of CK’s, 1938-51, minimum 4500 PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize
5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine

8) Burleigh Grimes (9,10,11) – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


9) Rusty Staub (10,11,12) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

10) Roger Bresnahan (11,12,13) – A couple more voters now (12) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

11) Jimmy Ryan (12,13,14) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

12) Graig Nettles (14,15,ne) – Another looonggg career 1970’s star. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

13) Rollie Fingers (15,--,--) – Definitely a bubble candidate. It all depends on what angle you view him from. One of four pitchers with 1500 relief IP, there may never be another. OK, so maybe he’s the Grimes of RP’s.

14) Rabbit Maranville (--,--,--) – Pulling a couple of my old Lost Causes out of the backlog. Back after three years off, seventh time on ballot. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

15) Wally Schang (--,--,--) – Back after four years off. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

Somewhere between 16 and 616) Bill Buckner – He was thisclose to Hernandez, as evidenced by:
Firstbasemen with 1000+ assists 1978-86
1—1155 Keith Hernandez
2—1123 Bill Buckner

Players with 300+ doubles, 1978-86
1—314 Bill Buckner
2—304 George Brett
3—301 Keith Hernandez
3—301 Cecil Cooper

Top tenners off ballot:

Fox has been on my ballot and may be again. Weaker league weighs him down.

Wynn is a bit short on career, but definitely on my radar. Would be on if he’d played more center field.

If we elect Browning it will be our biggest mistake. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.
   92. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 23, 2007 at 09:03 PM (#2316861)
If we elect Browning it will be our biggest mistake. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Mr. Greenia, a Mr. Thompson is holding on line three for you. He says it's urgent....
   93. sunnyday2 Posted: March 23, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2316863)
Well, there's a certain Mr. Galvin, who, well, is dead, but....
   94. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: March 23, 2007 at 11:36 PM (#2316926)
I thought everyone agreed the biggest mistake was Terry...
   95. DavidFoss Posted: March 23, 2007 at 11:52 PM (#2316930)
Terry was a surprise. No one expected him to show up atop the results page that monday night. Thompson went in during the 'candidate drought' of the late 1920s. The backlog was not as deep then and we had several years in a row with very few shoo-ins. We knew at the time that some of those guys were going to be in the lower part of the HOM.

Its been a long time since 1943 though. Voters preferred Terry over Sisler (who was elected 30+ years later) and Beckley who still has a good shot. I have a hard time believing that we shouldn't have inducted him anyways... but there was a lot of teeth-gnashing that night. (I was more annoyed with Faber the year or two before...)
   96. sunnyday2 Posted: March 24, 2007 at 12:09 AM (#2316943)
>I thought everyone agreed the biggest mistake was Terry.

Certainly not everyone.
   97. jimd Posted: March 24, 2007 at 12:42 AM (#2316956)
Ballot for 1996 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

I have cut back my "catcher bonus" due to the influx of good candidates lately.

1) K. HERNANDEZ -- Better than the existing backlog. Prime 1977-87. Best player candidate 1979 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1979 and 1980, WS adds 1984. Other star seasons include 1977, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987.

2) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

3) J. WYNN -- Splitting hairs between him and Singleton. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

4) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

6) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

7) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

8) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

9) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

10) R. CEY -- Scored better than expected. Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

11) B. BONDS -- Scored much higher than I thought he would. Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

12) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

13) P. TRAYNOR -- I see the HOM as being somewhat heavy on "bats" (OF/1B) and went to a system organized around position groups (arms/bats/gloves). Traynor was the major beneficiary of the reorg. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

14) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

15) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

16) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but I have him ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

17) T. MUNSON -- Close to Howard and Freehan. Don't understand the lack of support. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

18) N. FOX -- Prime 1951-60. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1957 and 1958; WS adds 1955 and 1960. Other star seasons include 1951, 1952, 1954, 1958. HM in 1953.

19) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

20) R. FINGERS -- Doesn't score well in my system, but that's because relievers have problems in both WS and WARP, on which my All-Star system is based. I had similar problems with Wilhelm. Tentative placement, based on the work of Joe Dimino and Chris Cobb.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Graig Nettles, Bobby Veach, Dizzy Dean,
24-26) Dizzy Trout, Ron Guidry, Hugh Duffy,
27-29) Jake Beckley, Edd Roush, Dick Redding,
30-32) Vida Blue, Wilbur Wood, Jim McCormick,
33-35) Roger Bresnahan, Charley Jones, Bob Johnson,

Keller: peak is not high enough, career is not long enough, when compared to other marginal OFers.

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.
   98. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 24, 2007 at 04:07 AM (#2317027)
I thought everyone agreed the biggest mistake was Terry...

I thought so at the time; now I think he is a lower-tier but fully qualified candidate. But Thompson has always seemed to me like the one really glaring mistake to me. I wasn't around for that vote, so that is probably unfair of me to say so.
   99. OCF Posted: March 24, 2007 at 04:28 AM (#2317035)
I was there, Eric, and I thought Thompson was a mistake then and still think that. There have been elections that I wasn't on board with, like Pearce or Jennings, but those were legitimate disagreements between me and a lot of other voters on the nature and interpretation of the evidence. Thompson I thought was a mistake. In particular, I think that any of Van Haltren, Duffy, or Ryan would have been a better choice than Thompson. I don't particularly like Browning as a candidate, but would still take him over Thompson. And it might very well true that the election of Thompson claimed a space that would otherwise have gone to Van Haltren in some other year.

But I thought Terry was a pretty good candidate. I had him somewhere around 5th or 6th on my ballot that year.
   100. Brent Posted: March 24, 2007 at 06:19 AM (#2317061)
1996 Ballot:

1. Keith Hernandez – If you'd shown me the list of this year's class 25 years ago and asked me which one might merit the HoF, I would have said Lynn. Twenty years ago I would have said Quisenberry. Fifteen years ago I probably would have said none of them. Frankly, I didn't realize that Hernandez was such a strong candidate until two weeks ago, when he became eligible here and I finally studied his case. (PHoM 1996)

2. Phil Rizzuto – Excellent defense; above average hitter at his position; key contributor to many pennants. (PHoM 1967)

3. Ken Singleton – (PHoM 1991)
4. Hugh Duffy – (PHoM 1931)
5. Alejandro Oms – (PHoM 1967)
6. Jimmy Wynn – (PHoM 1985)
7. Bobby Bonds – (PHoM 1987)
A cluster of outfielders who didn’t have super-high peaks or super-long careers, but each of them put up many seasons at the all-star level.

8. Tony Pérez – He had a lot of empty seasons on either side, but from 1967-78 he was right up there too. (PHoM 1994)

9. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

10. Gavy Cravath – Among the pure hitters, he has the strongest credentials. In his prime, he was a better hitter than Browning, and with appropriate credit for his performance in Los Angeles and Minneapolis, he had significantly more career value. (PHoM 1976)

11. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (PHoM 1958)

12. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 117 DERA+, 74 OPS+. (PHoM 1966)

13. Dick Redding – Because his peak came before the organization of formal Negro leagues in the 1920s, there is some uncertainty about his credentials. Nevertheless, the evidence points to a pitcher with a long career and several seasons of dominance. (PHoM 1976)

14. Nellie Fox – Three gold gloves (even though the award wasn't given until he was 29), high OBP, seldom missed a game. Won the 1959 MVP award; another five seasons finished in the top 10. (PHoM 1979)

15. Elston Howard – An outstanding peak from 1961-64 and a bit of extra credit for delays in integration. (PHoM 1977)

Near misses:

16–20. Bando (PHoM 1987), Grimes (PHoM 1940), Keller (PHoM 1996), F Howard, Bresnahan
21–25. Newcombe, R Smith, Cepeda, Brock, Van Haltren
26–30. Leach (PHoM 1932), Quisenberry, Arlett, Easter, Staub

Other consensus top 10:

Charlie Keller – # 18. He makes my PHoM this year; will he also make the HoM?

Edd Roush – He had only 5 seasons in which he played 90 percent of his team’s games. In a field this tight, that's enough to knock him out of the running.

Pete Browning – As a hitter, he’s in the same class as Gavy Cravath, Frank Howard, and Buzz Arlett, except that the Gladiator was finished at age 32. Which makes Hack Wilson a better comp.

Jake Beckley – Sometime soon he'll be elected and I won't have to write any more comments about why he's such an awful choice.

Rollie Fingers – I see him as part of a cluster of fine relievers who don’t quite rise to my ballot cutoff.

Other new arrivals:

Dan Quisenberry - # 27. His fine prime from 1980-85 wasn't quite long enough.

Fred Lynn, Rick Reuschel, and Chet Lemon all missed my top 100 (though Lynn and Reuschel came close).
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