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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, March 18, 2007

1996 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Keith Hernandez, Chet Lemon, Fred Lynn, Rick Reuschel, Frank White, Bill Buckner, Bob Boone and Dan Quisenberry.

Top-ten returnees: Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, Nellie Fox, Edd Roush, Pete Browning, Jake Beckley and Rollie Fingers.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 18, 2007 at 10:59 PM | 182 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Sean Gilman Posted: March 24, 2007 at 10:37 AM (#2317075)
1996

1. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

2. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Keith Hernandez (-)-- He’s Keith Hernandez. Defense, even at first base, counts.

4. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

5. Edd Roush (5)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

6. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

7. Hugh Duffy (7)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

8. George Van Haltren (8)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

9. Carl Mays (9)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

10. Alejandro Oms (10)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

11. Ken Singleton (11)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

12. Jimmy Wynn (12)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms. (1994)

13. Bobby Bonds (13)--Very close to Wynn and the fourth in my series of underrated outfielders. (1995)

14. Charlie Keller (14)--Just edges out Howard thanks to WARP.

15. Frank Howard (15)--His Win Shares peak advantage over Fox gets him on the ballot, though WARP sees their peaks as very similar.

(Joe Gordon)
(Dwight Evans)
16. Nellie Fox (17)
(Quincey Trouppe)
(Red Faber)
17. Graig Nettles (19)
(Red Ruffing)
18. John McGraw (20)
19. Rollie Fingers (21)
20. Sal Bando (22)
(Bob Lemon)
21. Bucky Walters (23)
22. Wally Berger (24)
23. Mike Tiernan (25)
24. Cesar Cedeno (26)
25. George Foster (27)
(Ted Lyons)
26. Dick Redding (28)
27. Dave Concepcion (29)
28. Ed Williamson (30)
(Dobie Moore)
29. Tony Perez (31)
30. Rusty Staub (32)
31. Vada Pinson (33)
32. Dan Quisenberry (-)
33. Ron Cey (34)
34. Norm Cash (35)
35. Bruce Sutter (36)
36. Bobby Murcer (37)
37. Orlando Cepeda (38)
(Billy Pierce)
38. Buddy Bell (39)
39. Vern Stephens (40)
40. Roger Bresnahan (41)
41. Lou Brock (42)
42. Dave Bancroft (43)
43. Jimmy Ryan (44)
44. Rabbit Maranville (45)
45. Tony Lazzeri (46)
46. Bob Elliott (47)
47. Phil Rizzuto (48)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
48. Gavy Cravath (49)
49. Reggie Smith (50)
50. Jake Beckley (51)

Hernandez, Keller and Howard make my PHOM this year.
   102. Chris Cobb Posted: March 24, 2007 at 05:01 PM (#2317148)
1996 Ballot

A lot of fine players newly eligible this year, but most of them are clearly a little short of HoM standards: Reuschel, Lynn, Quisenberry, Lemon, Boone. Keith Hernandez, to the surprise of many (myself included), matches up very well against the backlog.

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments. I have recently become concerned at the impact of the very-low-replacement level of both WARP1 and WS on my rankings. I include a rate stat in my system, but I am not confident that it compensates sufficiently for the overvaluing of pure playing time by the comprehensive metrics. I haven’t had time to revamp my system to adjust replacement level yet, but one of my subjective adjustments identifies players who are likely to be overrated somewhat for this reason.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Keith Hernandez (n/e). % = 1.1134. I am a bit surprised to have him in the top slot, but the discussion of him didn’t reveal anything about his on-the-field performance that called my system’s placement of him into question. He’s definitely better than Darrell Evans, who I placed conservatively at #9 last year and whom we elected. He is probably the greatest defensive first basemen of all time, very good offensively, with a long and strong prime. Relatively little of his value comes from “hang-around” seasons, so I don’t believe that the low replacement levels of WARP and WS are overrating him significantly for this reason. To sum up his case: his hitting is as good or nearly as good over an extended prime as that of any other bat candidate, and he has the most defensive value of that group: the best-fielding first baseman of all time with a career EQA of .301 is more valuable than an average-fielding centerfielder with a career EQA of .296 (That’s Edd Roush, who captures the #2 slot.)
2. Edd Roush (3). % = 1.0487. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me. This is Roush’s second year in an elect-me spot on my ballot. Will he go in this year?
3. Charlie Keller (4). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value. His first time in an elect-me spot on my ballot.
4. Rollie Fingers (5) % = 1.0419. Fingers shows up comfortably above the in/out line in my system. He was not as lights-out as we have come to expect the modern closer to be, but he was still highly effective, extremely durable, and highly leveraged.
5. Dave Bancroft (6). % = 1.0463. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
6. Alejandro Oms (7) % = 1.0407. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
7. Tommy Leach (8). % = 1.0381. Outstanding player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent.
8. Jimmy Wynn (10). % = 1.0386. Not the perfect candidate, but his peak is that bit better than the other medium career outfielders who are his near contemporaries, and his career stacks up well with theirs, also.
9. Jake Beckley (11). % = 1.0250. At the top of a large set of long-career, low peak candidates that make up about 2/3 of the next 10 candidates. The two group includes Maranville, Perez, Bell, Nettles, Cash, Fox, and Staub. The “bat” candidate at the other end of this group is Rusty Staub. Staub’s record and Beckley’s are highly comparable, so there’s very little separating #9 from #20 in my rankings, but Beckley is at the top of the group because his defensive performance was consistently superior when that was more valuable, and he was durable when that was a rarer commodity. I hope we will elect several players from this group in upcoming backlog years. The slight bias of the electorate toward peak value against career value has, I think, led us to underrate this group of career candidates a little bit.
10. Rabbit Maranville (12) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study indicates that my system overvalues him, but he still has a strong career argument.
11. Bus Clarkson (13). % = 1.00. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him the edge over Perez.
12. Tony Perez (14). % = 1.0327. In a tightly bunched group of long career, relatively low peak players. Overall, he places in the top third of this tightly bunched group, while also comparing favorably to strong prime candidates Bonds and Jones. An excellent hitter for a few years, a very good hitter for many years. Helped by being a decent third baseman for a while, and being good defensively at first. (Win shares has him at B-, just above average, at each position. He never won a WS gold glove at first, but he was among the top 5 in fws at first every season during the 1970s.) It’s his defense, surprisingly enough, that pushes him ahead of Staub, who was a little better with the bat. It’s durability that pushes him ahead of Cash. His 12-year prime and Bonds’ 12-year prime were almost identical in value; Perez’s decline phase gives him the nod over Bonds. Win shares _hugely_ overrates this tail period, which is why I have adjusted Perez downward from his rank according to my system (I haven’t had time to make a comprehensive adjustment to the system yet). However, he did have some value, which is more than Bonds did when he wasn’t playing.
13. Bobby Bonds (15) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
14. Charley Jones (16). % = 1.00. Back on my ballot; he last got a vote from me in 1988. I give him 2+ years credit for the blacklisting. The only player on the ballot with an argument to have been the best player in baseball at his peak.
15. Luis Tiant (17). % = 1.0024. Best backlog starting pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce. His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Worthy of election, but I’m not in any hurry to push his candidacy.
   103. Chris Cobb Posted: March 24, 2007 at 05:03 PM (#2317150)
1996 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Buddy Bell (18). % = 1.0349. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to Nettles, but his defensive excellence appears to have lasted longer. I have ranked him below what his percentile ranking suggests because I am not exactly sure where the in-out line for the 1980s will end up. Right now that in-out line is quite low, but it could rise as I finish evaluating that decade’s candidates.
17. Graig Nettles (19). % = 1.00. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time. Looks identical to Bell in overall merit, and I prefer both to Nellie Fox.
18. Norm Cash. (20) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Bell and Nettles on league-strength considerations.
19. Nellie Fox (21). % = 1.00. I thought he wasn’t going to make my ballot before he was elected. Since his drive to election has slowed, maybe he will. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Bancroft, Maranville, Bell, and Nettles have to offer as bat-glove packages.
20. Rusty Staub (22) % = 1.0457. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am ranking him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
21. Gavvy Cravath (23). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
22. Joe Tinker (24). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
23. Tommy John (25). % = 1.0308. Slightly overrated in my system. People talked about Sutton as lacking peak. He was loaded with peak compared to John. I like his career fine, but if you look at innings and rate, he was above average for less than half of his career, so his peak is really weak. I don’t oppose his election, but I certainly don’t favor it at present, either.
24. Herman Long (26). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts.
25. Bob Johnson (27). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
26. Dom Dimaggio (28). % = 1.00. Likewise
27. Jimmy Ryan (29). % = 1.00. Likewise
28. Dick Redding (30). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

29. Bill Monroe .9922
30. Don Newcombe .9886
31. Urban Shocker .9867
32. Burleigh Grimes .9845
33. George Burns .9879
34. Willie Davis .9896
35. Ron Cey .9800
36. Reggie Smith .9791
37. Ken Singleton .9780
38. Johnny Evers .9779
39. Fielder Jones .9778
40. Bruce Sutter .9755
41. Ron Guidry .9735.
42. Jim Kaat .9725.
43. Lave Cross .9709
44. Hugh Duffy .9686
45. Johnny Pesky .9676
46. Ben Taylor .9667
47. Cy Seymour .9665
48. Rick Reuschel .9657 . Big Daddy was a heck of a pitcher. Didn’t quite have the longevity of Kaat; didn’t quite have the peak excellence of Guidry.
49. Dick Bartell .9653
50. George Van Haltren .9538
51. Larry Doyle .9614
52. Bobby Veach .9609
53. Buzz Arlett .9602
54. Vada Pinson .9599
55. Jose Cruz .9587.
56. Leroy Matlock .9544
57. Fred Lynn .9526. At his best, had HoM talent, but unfortunately he only realized that potential in a couple of seasons.
58. Chet Lemon .9521. Lynn’s exact contemporary, and a player no one (that I recall) ever described as a Hall-of-Fame talent. But he was highly talented, and though his peak was lower than Lynn’s, he had more above average seasons. I remember him as a White Sock: I had completely forgotten that he was an important part of the great Tigers teams of the mid-1980s. WARP1 sees Lemon as a HoMer, actually, but WS is much less approving, mostly because it values post-1970 centerfield defense much less highly.
59. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #19 above

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in. There was a bit of talk about “our biggest mistake” election. The only two choices we have made that I see as clear “mistakes” are Bill Terry and Sam Thompson, with Thompson being the bigger of the two. Browning is distinctly less qualified than Thompson. All three players were overrated, I think, because they have very gaudy batting statistics that aren’t as meritorious as they appear.

Dick Redding. See #28 above.

Bob Johnson. See #25 above. I’m actually rather pleased to see Johnson in the returning top 10. He was unfairly neglected for many years after he first became eligible, and I was among those who didn’t give him as much support as he merited. I’m not advocating his election, but I don’t see him as a bad choice. If I had a pHOM, which I might get around to creating once we are caught up to the present, I would guess that Johnson would have a good shot at entry during a backlog year between 2007 and 2012.

New Arrivals worthy of note but not within 5% of the in-out line. All this year are sometime KC Royals:

Dan Quisenberry. .8238. I was surprised that Quiz wasn’t more meritorious than this. His career was rather short, and his usage wasn’t all that highly leveraged, though he was one of the last closers to routinely throw 100 innings in a season. WARP may undervalue him because he wasn’t a strikeout pitcher, but there’s no way he is close to the ballot even so. My system sees him a similar in value to Mike Marshall, Tug McGraw, and (not yet eligible) Kent Tekulve. That’s not bad company, but it’s not the reliever wing of the HoM.

Bob Boone. .8168 . A good catcher for a long time, but never great. When he hit, he was very good, when he didn’t, he was still good enough defensively to be a legitimate starter. A Ray Schalk type, though not as outstanding defensively in context as Schalk.

Frank White. He doesn’t have quite enough value for me to do a formal workup for him. A brilliant defensive second baseman and a weak hitter. Mazeroski was about the same as a hitter, and even more brilliant defensively, and he isn’t within 5% of my all-time in-out line. Still, White was an asset to a good team for many years.
   104. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 24, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2317161)
Firstbasemen with 1000+ assists 1978-86
1—1155 Keith Hernandez
2—1123 Bill Buckner


Hernandez had more assists on plays not made at 1B than did Buckner. From 1979-1983, Retrosheet has Hernandez with 630 assists, of which 253 were on plays other than those made at 1B. Buckner had 599 assists, but only 153 on plays other than those made at 1B. Hernandez's percentage of assists on plays not made at 1B was the fourth-highest among the 22 1Bs with 200 or more assists over those five seasons, behind Ron Jackson, Mike Squires, and Tony Perez; Buckner's was 17th. Steve Garvey was, as usual, the worst in this regard.

-- MWE
   105. OCF Posted: March 24, 2007 at 06:05 PM (#2317169)
MWE - I think that the only thing that DanG comment you responded to really shows is that the tables Dan posts with his ballots aren't arguments and never have been arguments. They're there for entertainment pursposes, mostly - I'm pretty sure Dan would admit as much.
   106. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 24, 2007 at 06:06 PM (#2317170)
Following up on 105, also from Retrosheet:

Plays at 1B, 1979-1983 (unassisted putouts plus assists at 1B):
Hernandez 1448
Buckner 1293

Assists on plays at other bases, 1979-1983:
Hernandez 253
Buckner 153

The point here being that while Buckner did have nearly as many assists as did Hernandez, he was still making about 30 fewer plays a year at 1B, and 20 fewer at other bases, than was Hernandez.

-- MWE
   107. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 24, 2007 at 06:11 PM (#2317171)
OCF:

I know that Dan isn't using those tables to make arguments - he's said as much in the past. But someone else who didn't know the history might look at this and think "Wow, Buckner was making nearly as many plays as Hernandez - he must have been pretty d****ed good with the glove".

-- MWE
   108. dan b Posted: March 25, 2007 at 12:36 AM (#2317276)
PHoM 1994 – Lyons, Hernandez, Burns

1. Keller PHoM 1967. I am honored to be Charlie’s best friend. 1989 re-evaluation moves him ahead of Duffy in my backlog. Now giving him 20 WS for 1938, 32 WS for 1944 and 1945. We are shortchanging the WWII generation.
2. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time.
3. Roush PHoM 1942. Better than Ashburn
4. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
5. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
6. Wynn, J PHoM 1986. NHBA #10 CF.
7. Fox, N PHoM 1987.If Maz could hit like Nellie, the 1960 WS hero would have been elected by now.
8. Bando PHoM 1994. Close to Boyer, James has him ahead. NHBA #11.
9. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
10. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Another player deserving more WWII credit.
11. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
12. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus.
13. Hernandez, K PHoM 1996.
14. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
15. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds
16. Singleton How much better would the HoM be than the HOF if the worst player in our hall was Ken Singleton?
17. Leach PHoM 1926.
18. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
19. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
20. Browning PHoM 1912.
21. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
22. Munson NHBA #14
23. Berger
24. Perez
25. Staub
26. Newcombe Giving more war and mle credit (1993)
27. Cepeda
28. Tiant
29. Cash, N
30. Mays, C
31. Doyle PHoM 1930.
32. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
33. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
34. Grimes
35. Ryan
36. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan?
37. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles and Dobie Moore.
38. Elliott
39. Brock not enough peak to be higher
40. Pinson
41. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
42. Rosen If Moore, why not Rosen? If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
43. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
44. Arlett
45. Traynor
46. Nettles
47. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
48. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
49. Bell
50. Murcer

Not close to ballot – Beckley, Concepcion, Fingers (53)
   109. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 25, 2007 at 12:45 AM (#2317281)
I am honored to be Charlie’s best friend.

Dan, don't let Shirk hear you say that! ; )
   110. Howie Menckel Posted: March 25, 2007 at 01:48 AM (#2317309)
"11. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras."

Well, I've got Ewing finishing up behind the plate in 1890.
Then Bennett and Kelly as regulars in 1891
Kelly in 1892
Santop 1910-17, and 1920-22
Mackey 1920-22
then Hartnett joins Santop and Mackey in 1923.

but I realize you're talking about just AL/NL, so I guess the point holds.
   111. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 25, 2007 at 12:26 PM (#2317402)
but I realize you're talking about just AL/NL, so I guess the point holds.

As the greatest friend of Bresnahan, I still think that Santop and Mackey have to be included.

With that said, one other thing that is in his favor is that by the time Santop became a standout, Bresnahan was on his way out. IOW, while there is overlap in their careers, Bresnahan was clearly the best backstop (yes, I'm including the Duke's entire career, since his OF seasons would have been just as outstanding compared to the catchers of his time if he had been wearing the "tools of ignorance" instead) of his era despite the efforts of Kling and later Myers by a considerable amount.
   112. Jeff M Posted: March 25, 2007 at 08:49 PM (#2317617)
1996 Ballot

1. Browning, Pete – He proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

2. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

3. Sutter, Bruce – Hard to separate from Fingers, but I give him the edge because he was an innovator with the split-fingered fastball. He also had a higher peak, and his success was more attributable to great stuff.

4. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

5. Fingers, Rollie – One of the few relief pitchers from this era that arguably deserves a spot in the HoM. One of the first consistently good relievers used as a true closer. His numbers indicate, however, that he got away with less than great stuff during some seasons.

6. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust, but he still fares well overall. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position in the outfield, I rank him higher than Billy Williams.

7. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhit the average batter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

8. Dean, Dizzy -- Hard to get this high a ballot position with only five or so seasons, but Dean is the exception.

9. McGraw, John -- Has always lingered near the bottom of the ballot because of that OBP, good defense, and his position occupying a more difficult slot on the defensive spectrum during his era.

10. Roush, Edd -- 300+ WS; 100+ WARP1; normalized .322/.368/.444; good grey ink; and an above average defender in the outfield.

11. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years.

12. Keller, Charlie -- Another solid year and he’s in the middle of the ballot. I certainly don’t doubt his abilities. He's much better than Wynn, even with the shortened career.

13. Fox, Nellie – Pretty much tied with Boyer in my system.

14. Long, Herman – 300+ season-length adjusted Win Shares; WARP1 over 100, even before any season-length adjustments.

15. Monroe, Bill – The forgotten Negro Leaguer, back from the days before we started finding ways to make up careers for these players (see e.g., Trouppe).


Required Disclosure(s):

Wynn, Jimmy –Can’t give him much credit for being a center fielder because he probably shouldn’t have been there. He seems like a candidate only for extreme peak voters, and even then it seems a stretch to consider him as a truly great player.

Beckley, Jake – I guess if we can elect Darrell Evans (who should have been ranked about 100th), place Tony Perez at #12 (when he should be about 99th) and place Wynn at #5 (when he should be about #60), I can’t complain much about Beckley being at #10.
   113. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 25, 2007 at 09:02 PM (#2317627)
His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

Jeff, Manush still isn't a HOMer; are you meaning to say pHOMer?
   114. Chris Cobb Posted: March 25, 2007 at 09:19 PM (#2317635)
Jeff, while I understand your point about Cuyler being "under the radar," in that he ought to be getting more attention than he is, he seems very similar to Jimmy Wynn in a head-to-head comparison across eras--careers very nearly the same length (Cuyler 1879/1977 g by 154/162 g seasons; Wynn 1920 g), defensive value about the same (both split time between center and the corners, Cuyler a B grade, Wynn a B-), offensive value about the same (Wynn .303 EQA, Cuyler .297 EQA; Wynn 128 OPS+, Cuyler 125 OPS+). Obviously the candidates are very tightly bunched, but when I see you making the case for Cuyler and against Wynn, I'm a bit puzzled as to why you support the one but not the other. What do you see as the difference maker?
   115. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 25, 2007 at 09:27 PM (#2317640)
Can’t give him much credit for being a center fielder because he probably shouldn’t have been there.


I don't understand this, Jeff. If he had been a bad center fielder, okay, but he was, at the very least, just an average one. Why penalize him for that?
   116. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 25, 2007 at 09:32 PM (#2317645)
Jeff, Manush still isn't a HOMer; are you meaning to say pHOMer?


I'm not sure if Jeff responds to our posts anymore, since I mentioned this at least 2 (probably 4) months ago. Since he had a dustup with one of the electorate a while back, he appears to be gun shy around here. I hope he joins in the discussion again, since his posts were always thoughtful and informative.
   117. Mark Donelson Posted: March 25, 2007 at 09:50 PM (#2317653)
If John's post is accurate, this may not go anywhere, but to add another query re Jeff's ballot: If Sutter is third on it, Jeff, I'm curious as to your placement of Quisenberry.
   118. Chris Cobb Posted: March 25, 2007 at 10:12 PM (#2317661)
I hope he joins in the discussion again, since his posts were always thoughtful and informative.

Me, too. I somehow missed the dust-up, but I had noticed that Jeff wasn't posting much anymore. I'm glad that he is at least still voting, though!
   119. yest Posted: March 26, 2007 at 12:57 AM (#2317709)
Except Buckner was no where near the player Gorgeous George was.

John if he could have got Buckner in the top 100 of anybody else's ballot he would have had a major victory
   120. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 26, 2007 at 02:32 AM (#2317735)
1996 ballot

Alejandro Oms, Willard Brown, and Billy Pierce make my PHOM, Hernandez, Willis, and Bresnahan are on deck.

1. Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) – Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey). If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

2. Hugh Duffy (3, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections. That said, I still think WS overrates Duffy’s peak for other reasons.

3. Dick Redding (4, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

4. Bucky Walters (5, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

5. Jimmy Wynn (6, PHOM) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 30. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome. I wonder how he would have looked in an era where a lower replacement level meant great players had more great seasons.

6. Elston Howard (9, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

7. Pete Browning (10, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

8. Gavvy Cravath (11, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

9. Dizzy Dean (12, PHOM) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

10. Rollie Fingers (13, PHOM) – Not 100% sure what to do with him. Out of the relievers we have seen thus far I would have to agree that he is second to Wilhelm. Out of the relievers that we can look at I only prefer Wilhelm and Gossage. If he isn’t elected this year, I could seem him moving wildly as we look at more relievers. Leaps over Oms this week.

11. Alejandro Oms (14, PHOM) – I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMer Willard Brown. He had a low peak but it was a long one that accrued value in the Billy Williams/Al Kaline mold.

12. Keith Hernandez (x) – I have him about even with HOMer George Sisler and future candidate Don Mattingly, this is roughly where Sisler would be and Mattingly will be. Best fielding 1B ever and he had a solid bat.

13. Vic Willis (15) – First time on my ballot. He made a jump into my top 25 about 30 or 40 years ago and now I have finally decided to vote for him. He has a great DERA and he was a horse for some very good pitching staff

14. Roger Bresnahan (16) – Just like Peaches and Herb, Roger and my ballot are “Re-United and it feels So GOOD!” Best MLB catcher between 1900 and 1920. Very nice peak, even after I adjust for his time in CF.

15. Larry Doyle (17) – First vote for him ever! Doyle started in my 20, fell down into the 30’s, and now has climbed back up. He and Fox have suffered opposite fates recently as I have decided that I would rather have the bopper over the fielder in this case. However, there are concerns with both his defense and the status of turn of the century 2B.


16-20 GVH, Shocker, Rosen, Roush, Leach
21-25 McGraw, Fox, C. Jones, Berger, Elliot
26-30 Newcombe, Rizzuto, F. Howard, John, Kaat
31-35 Tiant, Burns, Cepeda, Singleton, Chance
36-40 Munson, Tenace, Veach, Lundy, H. Wilson
41-45 Bancroft, Thomas, Nettles, Concepcion, Perez
46-50 Monroe, Ryan, Stephens, Quisenberry, Traynor

Required Disclosures:

Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet and he has taken a recent ‘dive’ in my rankings. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat and that I am not sure I want to give credit for being the best of a bad lot..

Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

Roush – Good player, but I think not playing full seasons for whatever reason (injury, holdout) really hurts his peak. Has moved up a little in my re-eval. Better than Carey, Bell, and Minoso, however.

C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

Newbies:

Quisenberry – I really like his peak and he is the first reliever to make my top 50 that didn’t also make my ballot. However, I would not stump for his induction.

Lynn – He had a very good top two years and he gets into my top 60. However, years 3-7 aren’t very impressive relative to other OF candidates.

Reuschel – Interesting candidate, but I prefere a number of other pitchers over him.
   121. Patrick W Posted: March 26, 2007 at 02:47 AM (#2317738)
1. Keith Hernandez (n/a), St.L – N.Y. (N), 1B (’75-’90) (1996) – Looks to be better than Evans in every category, which means it’s not as weak an election as I thought going in.
2. Rollie Fingers (3), Oak. (A) – S.D. (N) RP (’70-’84) (1991) – 33% bonus on his pitching runs to account for leverage. This could be low, but I don’t think I can support using a higher multiplier.
3. Tony Perez (4), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
4. Luis Tiant (5), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
5. Jim Kaat (6), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
6. Rusty Staub (7), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
7. Jimmy Wynn (8), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) (1985) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
8. Rick Reuschel (n/a), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
9. Graig Nettles (9), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
10. Dutch Leonard (10), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
11. Dizzy Trout (11), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
12. Norm Cash (12), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
13. Buddy Bell (13), Clev. – Tex. (A) 3B (’72-’89) – Close enough to Nettles that he has to have a place on the ballot. Graig has more value offensively, and thus gets the nod.
14. Alejandro Oms (14), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
15. George Van Haltren (15), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.

Charlie Keller – DiMaggio, Ryan and Hooper rank above him among the OF’s. I know each of them has previously appeared on my ballot, so I wouldn’t be surprised if I’ve given Keller a few votes over the years. A 23% bonus for war credit still leaves him short of 5,000 AB’s; it’ll be a hard sell to make the ballot again.
Nellie Fox – Not the best glove man missing from the ballot.
Edd Roush – I can’t even tell if career voters or peak voters should be voting for Roush. Near the bottom of the OF consideration set.
Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed below, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Jake Beckley – P-Hall. That’s gonna have to be good enough for now.

Five players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   122. DanG Posted: March 26, 2007 at 03:16 AM (#2317749)
MWE - I think that the only thing that DanG comment you responded to really shows is that the tables Dan posts with his ballots aren't arguments and never have been arguments. They're there for entertainment pursposes, mostly - I'm pretty sure Dan would admit as much.

Sort of. The idea is to tell something not generally known and maybe to make people think a bit. MWE's response to the Buckner tables was great, unmasking a deception in the numbers.

However, many of the tables are contributions to arguments in favor of the player. Look at the recently-added table in the Leach comment, for instance. Who knew he was #6 in total bases for the decade? Right behind sluggers Harry Davis and Cy Seymour and just ahead of HoMers Fred Clarke and Jimmy Sheckard. It shows a great fielder who was among the leading hitters of his era. As I say, not bad for a "glove". If there is some deception hidden in that table, nobody has bothered to point it out.
   123. Andrew M Posted: March 26, 2007 at 04:35 AM (#2317769)
1996 Ballot

I began this project as a 5-7 year prime voter, but got sucked into seeing the merit of both Hughie Jennings and Eppa Rixey and lost my ideological fervor.

My ballot was starting to reveal a prejudice for older players, so I bumped up some of the newer guys this week.

1. (2) Nellie Fox.
2. (3) Larry Doyle.
Fox was durable (he never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. His 94 OPS+ is OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career. His MVP season was neither undeserved nor a fluke. I’m not convinced he should be first on this ballot, but I do think he should be in the HoM.

Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. Assessments of his fielding vary from average to poor.

They were very different players, but both Fox and Doyle seem to me to be above the in/out line we have established for 2B.

3. (4) Edd Roush.
4. (5) Charlie Keller.

Both of these guys are hard for me to rank. There are some peculiar things about Roush’s career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc. At his peak between 1917-1921 he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF (according to Win Shares—WARP thinks less of his fielding). Plus he played long enough to get over the 100 WARP/300 WS plateau.

Keller’s even peakier than Roush, but he has only 4600 plate appearances. His rate stats benefit from not having a real decline phase, but there aren’t many guys who hit like he did at ages 24-26.

5. (8) Tommy Bridges. He’s not really a peak or career candidate. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. In his favor, he’s probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.) And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

6. (10) Jimmy Wynn. Another unusual, relatively brief, career, but he got on base a ton, hit for power, seems to have been a decent fielder. Rises above the backlog for his 4 MVP type seasons (65, 68, 69, 74)

7. (9) Bob Johnson. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. Comparable to Medwick and Averill in the lower tier of HoM OFs.

8. (new) Tony Perez. Moved up this week because I don’t think I was giving him enough credit for having a pretty good glove at 3B for 760 games. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

9. (new) Luis Tiant
10. (6) Dick Redding
Both of these guys are perfect pitchers for the prime voter. The best pitcher in the league at their best and decent career length. (This is more speculative for Redding, of course.) Bucky Walters is another guy in this category.

11. (12) Tommie Leach. Long career, excellent fielder at both CF and 3B. Hit enough for 3B.

12. (13) George J. Burns. Rarely missed a game, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. I’ve never been convinced Roush was the better player, to be honest.

13. (14) Dave Bancroft. Strikes me as a slightly lesser version of Nellie Fox--Great glove, league average hitter, walked a lot. Not as durable as Fox. A Hall of Fame “mistake” that really wasn’t.

14. (15) Tommy John. I’m really surprised by how few votes he got in his first year. Not much of a peak, but he’s got too many innings of above-average to good pitching to ignore. Also, by reputation, an excellent fielder.

15. (new) Bucky Walters. See comments above.

Next 7 (more or less in order)
Keith Hernandez
Phil Rizzuto
Ken Singleton
Rollie Fingers
Alejandro Oms
Orlando Cepeda or Norm Cash or Jake Beckley
Geo. Van Haltren

Required Disclosures:
Rollie Fingers, Pete Browning, Jake Beckley. I wouldn’t object to any of these guys getting elected, but I’d put them in the YMMV category. As to specifics, I guess like relief pitchers less than most voters; I think there are too many questions about Browning; and Beckley, I suppose it’s the old “not enough peak” argument, but it would sure steam me were I a Beckley guy and I saw all these top of the ballot votes for Keith Hernandez....
   124. SWW Posted: March 26, 2007 at 04:53 AM (#2317775)
So I took a long, hard look at this ballot, knowing that the backlog would be moving to the forefront. And a very interesting thing happened…

<u>1996 Ballot</u>
1) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
This was not the top spot I was expecting. But comparing Fox and Grimes’ career numbers, I couldn’t in good conscience say that Grimes had the stronger case. A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Roland Glen Fingers – “Rollie”
Interestingly, watching Rich Gossage’s unnecessarily-long march to Cooperstown has helped me assess my placement of relief pitchers. I think the weirdness of the position has led this electorate to underrate him, and not entirely unfairly. But Fingers is one of the best at his position, outdistances guys like Sutter, Lyle, and McGraw. Also, DanG calls him “the Grimes of RP’s”, which seems almost calculated to get my attention. 76th on SABR Top 100. 82nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 97th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
5) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
A similar pair. Tony has the edge in Win Shares. Cha Cha shows a greater impact compared to his team and his league. Tony has higher career and higher prime numbers, so right now he gets the one-point advantage. Perez is 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
6) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. I think another review of pitchers may be in order, but I still believe that the pitchers of this era get short shrift.
7) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
8) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
9) Keith Hernandez
An unexpected debut. Rusty Staub’s presence on my ballot should tell you how much I value career numbers. I’m kind of lowballing him because of his low prime, as well as fear of the Shiny New Toy. But I could see moving him up on future ballots, if the opportunity presented itself. After all, he’s Keith Hernandez.
10) Edd J Roush
One of those center fielders, just sitting there with their big career numbers and not much else. I knocked Hugh Duffy down several spots because of my concerns about his one great season. Roush has more consistency, so he hangs in there.
11) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
An impressive career considering his late start. Not much in the way of peak, but considering how few Win Shares the Senators had to divvy up, he did pretty well.
12) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
13) James Sherman Wynn – “The Toy Cannon”
Fine career numbers, and I’m always surprised by his prime. Neck and neck with Duffy, but Jimmy isn’t so reliant on a single season. The 6 Top 10 WS finishes and solid career numbers carry a lot of weight with me, and he compares favorably with Roush. I will always be troubled by the fact that he was not especially acclaimed in his day.
14) Graig Nettles
Making his ballot debut. I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast.
15) Charles Herbert Klein – “Chuck”
A surprising return to the ballot. Although I veer away from sharply peak candidates, sometimes the prime is so strong that it can’t be ignored. I always had Klein ahead of Ralph Kiner, and I think he’s the best of the purely peak candidates on the ballot. I’ve even moved him ahead of Hugh Duffy, who was on my ballot for many years. 92nd on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Charles Ernest Keller
An enormous peak and the obvious need for war credit are in his favor. But I’m honestly not convinced that his peaks were as strong as those of guys like Kiner and Klein, who each just barely made it onto the bottom of my ballot. Like Dobie Moore, whose election I did not endorse, a career unfairly abbreviated.
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I favor career numbers, so he’s still hovering close to the ballot. However, his career is so utterly peakless, his seasonal performances are so completely without contributions above the norm, I’m hard pressed to call him a great. He and Luis Aparicio are both appealing to my preference for a consistent career, but remain just short of the ballot.
   125. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: March 26, 2007 at 05:22 AM (#2317780)
OK, last year I was complaining about all the third basemen under consideration, this year it's trying to distinguish between the first base candidates. I almost had 4 on my ballot, but I ultimately took Cash off. Still, I wouldn't blame anyone who wanted to put any of them on top. If last year's voting patterns hold, I'll get another artfully-timed HoM/PHoM match. Hernandez, Mackey and Keller make my PHoM. Reuschel, Quiz and Lynn are all down in the 60s and 70s. Lemon's below 100.

1. Jimmy Wynn (2) I was a bit surprised to see I alone was his Best Friend. But I'm OK with it. He was a heck of a hitter for a CFer, and had some truly outstanding seasons. His fielding wasn't the best, although WARP finds him more acceptable than WS in that department. Made my PHoM in 1985.

2. Bill Monroe (4) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. And honestly, outside of knowing what the actual numbers are, I don’t know of any particular advantage Nellie Fox has over him. Made my PHoM in 1939.

3. George Van Haltren (5) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

4. Dick Redding (6) After reading Chris's interpretation of the HoF numbers, it does appear I need to pull him back a bit. Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

5. Gavvy Cravath (7) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

6. Keith Hernandez (new) Not a great slugger, but still a very effective hitter, and of course an outstanding defender. Significantly better than the 1B average in an era that is not weak at the position (Murray, Perez, Garvey, Mattingly and more)

7. Bob Johnson (8) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am. Made my PHoM in 1992.

8. Tommy Leach (9) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

9. Jake Beckley. (10) I still think his typical season was pretty weak for a HoM candidate, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Has more above-average seasons than Perez, who padded his career with just-OK years. Made my PHoM in 1987.

10. Reggie Smith (11) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP definitely has him with less fielding value than Wynn. Made my PHoM last year.

(10A Biz Mackey)

11. Edd Roush (14) I can surprise myself sometimes. I am still leery about giving out holdout credit, but even with the missed time, he does have a pretty good peak by WS. He’s pretty similar to Wynn, and I like Wynn a lot. WARP isn't crazy about his defense, though. Made my PHoM in 1992.

12. Charlie Keller (15) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.) Moves ahead of Clarkson because I'm sure he'd make my PHoM next year anyway, and I can't quite say that about Bus (or Griffith). Makes my PHoM this year.

13. Bus Clarkson (13) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO. I really need to decide whether I’m going to accept the MLEs and put him in my PHoM, or don’t do so and drop him down. Also looks a lot like Ron Cey, with possibly more defensive value.

(13A Clark Griffith)

14. Tony Perez (17) Maybe the HOF got this one right. Moved ahead of Cash because I hadn't realized how much of an advantage he had in in-season durability. Still, his late-70s years aren't much above average.

15. Phil Rizzuto (16) On my ballot for the first time since 1964. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. The HOF might have been right here as well.

16. Norm Cash (23) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1
17. Luis Tiant (20) After the deluge of 1970s-era pitchers, he’ll have to be reevaluated, but he could move up. Caught up on my pitcher evaluation system, and he didn't do so hot.
18. Alejandro Oms (21) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.
19. Ron Cey (19) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He's wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
20. Bobby Bonds (22) On further review, I was a bit too bullish on him when he first showed up, but he is quite good.
21. Nellie Fox (18) Not quite up to the standard of Doerr/Gordon/Childs, and the HoM is not notably short on 2Bmen.
22. Bucky Walters (27) I guess I am sort of light on pitchers, but for now I can’t put him any higher due to wartime.
(22A Max Carey, 22B Cool Papa Bell, 22C Rube Foster)
23. Elston Howard (26) I wasn't giving him enough credit, and still might not be.
24. Rusty Staub (29) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Definitely behind Perez.
(24A Ralph Kiner, 24B Sam Thompson, 24C Richie Ashburn)
25. Bob Elliott (24) Moves up partly for era balance, but he also comes out in the same group as the 70s 3B candidates.
26. Ben Taylor (28) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
27. Dizzy Dean (33) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering.
28. Vern Stephens (25) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
29. Charley Jones (30) Even with the missed time credit, there's just not quite enough to make the ballot.
30. Orlando Cepeda (31) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another.
31. Don Newcombe
(31A Hughie Jennings, 31B George Sisler)
32. Rollie Fingers (36) First, I’m not convinced he’s really ahead of all the other reliever candidates, and second, I’m not convinced that he would be worth induction even if he was.
33. Ken Singleton
34. Graig Nettles
35. Pete Browning (34) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
36. Roger Bresnahan
37. Lou Brock
38. Tony Lazzeri
39. Burleigh Grimes
40. Dave Bancroft
   126. Tiboreau Posted: March 26, 2007 at 08:34 AM (#2317812)
1. 1b Luke Easter—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
2. cf Alejandro Oms—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
3. lf Charlie Keller—After WWII credit Keller’s peak, while not quite as high, is sufficiently stronger than Kiner’s to slip ahead. King Kong also receives credit for his last year with the Newark Bears.
4. sp Dizzy Dean—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
5. cf Edd Roush—Missed playing time hurts, but still has a real good peak that is a bit overshadowed by WWI. Career puts him ahead of Wynn & Berger, while peak puts him ahead of Ryan & Van Haltren (Pen. Add., excluding pitching WS: Roush, .793; Ryan, .781; Van Haltren, .771).
6. rp Rollie Fingers—The definition of a borderline HoM reliever, IMO. While he did not have the peak of other relief candidates (Hiller, Marshall), he did have a couple excellent years as well as several real good ones, which is important IMO considering the nature of relieving.
7. cf Jimmy Wynn—One of my favorite ballplayers from before my time, an underrated ballplayer considering era and ballpark who combined speed and patience with surprising power for his stature, I’m happy to see him rate well. A real good peak, although the Toy Cannon’s inconsistency, mixing mediocre seasons with superb, hurts him a bit.
8. sp Leroy Matlock—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from ’34 to ’36. In fact, according to the MLEs, Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s. However, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock a bit below Dizzy.
9. 3b Al Rosen—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
10. rf Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
11. sp Bucky Walters—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
12. 3b John McGraw—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.
13. c Elston Howard—After pre-MLB credit, a similar player to Roger Bresnahan; his peak is slightly better, career slightly shorter. Howard jumps ahead Bresnahan, however, due to the fact that he was entirely a catcher during his peak, while Bresnahan spent significant time in the outfield during his best years.
14. lf Frank Howard—One of the good hit, no field outfield backloggers; like the rest, Win Shares and WARP disagree violently on Howard’s value. Since I primarily look at WS for position players Hondo is, IMO, a strong candidate for election; however, my WS-tinted view is tempered by WARP’s perspective.
15. sp Urban Shocker—Jumped back on my radar screen due to Joe Dimino’s pitcher numbers and this year finally makes my ballot. Like the rest, short career but packed in quality seasons for the majority of that time.

Required Disclosures:
19. 2b Nellie Fox—A very different player from Larry Doyle, but similar in value, IMO. Outside ’57, Fox’s career was solid but does not have enough peak for me to justify a place on this ballot.
49. 1b Jake Beckley—I'm just not convinced that first base defense is that much important than it is now, more important, yes, but not enough to boost Eagle Eye near my ballot.
52. cf Pete Browning—Brent's AA translations make me more comfortable with where I have the Gladiator. A real good hitter, just not enough after adjustments considering his defense and the representation of his era.
   127. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 26, 2007 at 12:14 PM (#2317824)
37 ballots tallied up to this point. Still missing ballots from: sunnyday2, andrew siegel, EricC, Mike Webber, James Newburg, Don F, David Foss, mulder and scully, Trevor P., Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, jwinfrey, Tom D, Michael Bass, Carl Goetz, NeverJustaGame, Dan Rosenheck and dzop.

If yest doesn't post a revised ballot, I will use his prelim.

Since they didn't vote in the last five elections, fra paolo, rdfc and Craig K have been removed from the list.

Remember: the election ends at 8 PM EDT, not 10 PM.
   128. sunnyday2 Posted: March 26, 2007 at 12:34 PM (#2317828)
1996 (elect 3)

I’m comfortable with my top 5 but in a backlog year it gets dicey as early as #6. But I’ve made those choices long ago (PHoM process), though I’m uncertain of Ellie Howard or Dick Redding at #15.

Willie Keeler, Darrell Evans and Ezra Sutton (after all these years) are PHoMers as I continue my drive toward a respectable consensus score )-;

The list goes down just far enough to pick up all the required disclosures.

1. Edd Roush (2-2-4, PHoM 1976)—nice peak of 38*-33-30 (*short WWI season adjusted to 154), very well-rounded skills.

2. Charlie Keller (3-4-6, PHoM 1985)—the ultimate all-peak candidate.

3. Rollie Fingers (4-6-7, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat that says Fingers is ballot-worthy, but I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time (as of 1995) in mine.

4. Pete Browning (6-15-10, PHoM 1961)—do you believe in numbers?

5. Addie Joss (5-8-9, PHoM 1967)—not a workhorse, to be sure, but damn effective and not a “small sample” of IP.

6. Orlando Cepeda (8-9-16, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard, Cravath and Tony Perez, but the best of the group.

7. Reggie Smith (9-13-17, PHoM 1988)—cannot quite see how he’s not better than Jim Wynn.

8. Charley Jones (10-17-30, PHoM 1921)—even with hefty AA discounts.

9. Phil Rizzuto (7-10-22, PHoM 1995)—306 career WS with war credit. His tenth best season is 21 WS, compared to Nellie Fox at 19, Darrell Evans at 18, e.g.

10. Larry Doyle (11-5-15, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Ed Roush.

11. Ed Williamson (12-14-13, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than Darrell Evans.

12. Frank Howard (14-23-27, PHoM 1987)—PHoM opening forced me to re-evaluate a lot of guys, and his numbers are just too good.

13. Nellie Fox (13-12-8, PHoM 1971)—I’ve decided I like Rizzuto a bit better, though they are two very very comparable players. I think Phil’s peak was a bit more valuable.

(13a. Darrell Evans [18-new], PHoM 1996—not quite the peak I usually like to see, plenty of career, high borderline)

14. Gavvy Cravath (21-21-14, PHoM 1995)—if I’m in a generous mood with MLEs, which I am today.

15. Elston Howard (15-7-12, PHoM 1994)—never really thought of him as a HoM or HoF or PHoM type of player, but I now see him as one of those few players whose opportunities were least commensurate to his ability. Still prefer him to Trouppe.

Very Very Close to Ballot

16. Dick Redding (16-11-26, PHoM 1971)—next best arm, great peak.

(16a. Willie Keeler [24a-30a-22a], PHoM 1996—after all these years)

(16b. Ezra Sutton [18a-39a-32a], PHoM 1996—after all these years, double. Thank Darrell Evans for having reviewed his case.)

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another 10 or so backloggers before we’re done

17. Keith Hernandez (new)—under-rated among the english, but likely to get over-rated here

18. Tony Perez (19-19-18)
19. Don Newcombe (20-22-20)
20. Tommy Leach (21-16-29)
(20a. Quincy Trouppe [22-50-54])

21. Norm Cash (21-43-31)
22. Dan Quisenberry (new)—the closest thing to Gossage’s peak, clearly if narrowly better than Sutter
23. Al Rosen (24-18-37)
24. Hack Wilson (25-28-39)
25. Burleigh Grimes (26-38-70)

HoVVG

26. Roger Bresnahan (27-31-36)
27. Jim Wynn (28-52-52)
28. Sal Bando (29-29-49)
29. Johnny Pesky (30-80-76)
30. Eddie Cicotte (31-24-29)
(30a. Jim Bunning [31a-30b-28a])

31. Ken Singleton (32-71-72)
32. Bruce Sutter (33-44-new)
(32a. Joe Sewell [33a-30a-28b])
33. Alejandro Oms (34-40-53)
34. Fred Lynn (new)—never fulfilled his promise, but how many turn out to be the second coming of Joe DiMaggio; what he did was pretty damn impressive
(34a. Ken Boyer [33b-22a-22a])
35. Bob Elliott (35-57-61)
(35a. Don Sutton [35a-20-new])
36. Lefty Gomez (36-32-46)
37. Luis Tiant (37-48-85)
38. Thurman Munson (38-37-19)
39. Chuck Klein (39-30-24)
40. Luke Easter (40-25-60)

41. Vern Stephens (41-33-33)
42. Bill Monroe (42-46-63)
43. Bobby Bonds (43-45-51)
(43a. Jimmy Sheckard [43a-45a-54a])
44. Bus Clarkson (44-82-66)
45. Cesar Cedeno (45-49-32)
46. Wally Berger (46-47-40)
47. Tommy Bridges (47-58-93)
48. Bucky Walters (48-27-25)
49. Fred Dunlap (49-59-58)
(49a. Cool Papa Bell [49a-49a-76a])
50. Graig Nettles (50-53-new)

51. Pie Traynor (51-39-45)
52. Bob Johnson (52-60-64)
53. Luis Tiant (53-new)
(53a. Wes Ferrell [53a-51a-54b])
54. Hilton Smith (54-51-43)
55. Dick Lundy (55-26-23)
56. Dizzy Dean (56-33-14)
57. Dave Bancroft (57-35-38)
58. Tommy Bond (58-34-11, PHoM 1929)

HoVG

59. Jake Beckley (59-54-48)
   129. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 26, 2007 at 12:59 PM (#2317835)
Unless their e-mail wasn't operational, I was able to contact everyone who hasn't submitted a ballot yet. The third slot is going to be close.
   130. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: March 26, 2007 at 01:16 PM (#2317845)
Sorry for the late and abbeviated ballot; my oral quals in my PhD program is tomorrow. Couldn't miss a backlog election, though:


1. Charlie Keller-Hopefully, this is the last vote I cast for Keller

2. Dizzy Dean- All-time great pitching peak. Bumped him up this year to put the two best remaining backlog peaksters in the spots they deserved. The 1930's NL was a historic low for great SP.

3. David Concepción-A great turf SS, at a time when it was a brutal position.

4. John McGraw-Astonishing peak, Dan R's STDEV work brings out how extraordinary McGraw was.

5. Reggie Smith-Dan's work convinces me of his merit. Not as peaky as I'd like, but clearly more valuble than any player that follows (and maybe even some before...)

6. Ron Cey
7. Graig Nettles- Two underrated 70's 3B's. Better than Boyer, fer sure.

8. Jimmy Wynn-Gets docked for his non-consecutive peak. However, his 3 great years were pretty freakin awesome, and he played in the low stdev 70's.

9. Dave Bancroft-Dan sold me. Better than the established baseline for SS in the HOM.

10. Keith Hernandez-Shockingly high

11. Rollie Fingers- I'm inclined to believe that if the baseball world valued a player highly, then the default assumption should be that the player was very valuble until it can be conclusively shown that he's not. IMO, the case against Fingers hasn't reached that level of persuasion.

12. Edd Roush- The $ added system has him slightly below the in/out line, but I like the peak and the all-around play.

13. Pete Browning- Would be the worst HoM outfielder in everything but hitting. But he was probably that good a hitter. League quality dings him, drunkeness dings him.

14. Roger Breshnahan- Weird case, but he looks much better judged in the context of his peers...

15. Charley Jones- Slim pickin's at the bottom of the ballot.
------------------
Disclosures:
Fox- Sucked.
Beckley-I'd rather elect the inanimate carbon rod.
   131. OCF Posted: March 26, 2007 at 02:12 PM (#2317870)
1. 1b Luke Easter

Gadfly hasn't voted here in a long time, but someone seems to be channeling him.
   132. rawagman Posted: March 26, 2007 at 02:12 PM (#2317871)
'zop - nothing personal, but as this is the type of thing you've called out others on, so here goes:
'm inclined to believe that if the baseball world valued a player highly, then the default assumption should be that the player was very valuble until it can be conclusively shown that he's not.

I'm not bringing this up in reference to Fingers, but for your ballot as a whole.
If that statement is true, then does it also hold true in reverse: if the baseball world does not value a player highly then the default assumption should be that he was NOT valuable?
Also, using the above statement as a beginning guide for qualification for this venerable institute, could you please follow up and give just a wee bit more of a conclusive type reasoning as to why Fox and Beckley are so execrable to you, but rather highly thought of by an underwhelming majority of the rest of us?
   133. OCF Posted: March 26, 2007 at 02:17 PM (#2317878)
Just a quick count, and I could be off by one or two, but I have 21 different candidates receiving #1 votes and 42 candidates receiving "elect me" votes.
   134. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 26, 2007 at 02:36 PM (#2317894)
my oral quals in my PhD program is tomorrow.

Good luck Zop!!!!
   135. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 26, 2007 at 03:11 PM (#2317934)
Just a quick count, and I could be off by one or two, but I have 21 different candidates receiving #1 votes and 42 candidates receiving "elect me" votes.


I have 22 #1 votes and 44 candidates receiving "elect me" votes.
   136. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: March 26, 2007 at 03:28 PM (#2317951)
Rawagman, I state: "I'm inclined to believe that if the baseball world valued a player highly, then the default assumption should be that the player was very valuble until it can be conclusively shown that he's not.

In the case of Beckley, I believe it has been conclusively shown that his peak seasons were not particularly valuble compared to any other player on my ballot; I think that's indisputable by all but Beckley's biggest, most irrational, friends.

In the case of Fox, Dan R.'s work has persuaded me that he's much less valuble than he first appears. In addition, I have my own personal bias against players with non-consecutive peak seasons, which I think has less value for their team than peak seasons.

In contrast, with Fingers, I am concerned that our quantitative measures of relief performance do not adequately capture the value of the role. It sure seems that, qualitatively, teams think relievers are very important.
   137. andrew siegel Posted: March 26, 2007 at 04:14 PM (#2318003)
I've spent a lot of time on the ballot making sure that I stand by my top-end placements. For the most part, I do, although we are now down to a point on the talent curve where the difference between number 1 and number 80 is not particularly large. Here goes nothing:

(1) Keller (2nd)--Identical to Dick Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). Played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner and Berger, only reached for 4 or 5.

(2) Keith Hernandez (new)--I guess I shouldn't have found this surprising since (1) I am primarily a prime voter and (2) one fo Norm Cash's biggest fans. Over a 7 or 8 year period, he was the number 2 offensive player in the an excellent major league while defending 1B as well as anyone ever has.

(3) Roush (4th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except the new guys and the third basemen. A star in his own time--a decent fielding CF always near the league lead in OPS. While his record is superficially similar to Van Haltren, his performances produced leaderboard offense while GVH did not, plus there were not a bunch of almost-as-good guys like Ryan, Griffin, etc. clipping at his heels.

(4) Bridges (5th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no one outside the HoM has more.

(5) Oms (6th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Moves way up as others slide down the ballot. His case has no holes.

(6) Cash (7th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot. Dan's study costs him a few points b/c/ his big years based on the ease of dominance in the 1960s AL, but others drop too. A lot like Hernandez, only in a substantially weaker league.

(7) Reggie Smith (9th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn. Moves ahead of Wynn on consistency-basis.

(8) Wynn (10th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers. This might be his year. Inconsistent for a player of this calibre or he'd rank a few spots higher.

(9) Bob Johnson (10th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. Since his era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, he losses the most when Dan's numbers take him down a peg.

(10) Leach (11th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(11) Elliot (12th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(12) Cravath (13th)--I've got no problem giving minor league credit and that brings him on ballot. Looking at the total package he offered, however, my personal jury is still out. A great hitter, but so were Jones, Browning, Fournier, Tiernan, Frank Howard, etc. He feels like one of those. Career length comparison to those others gets him on the ballot, but it is tenuous.

(13) Jack Beckley (14th)--Like Rusty Staub or Tony Perez, only with much less competition at his position. A truly borderline HoMer, but a deserving one.

(14) Urban Shocker (unranked/16th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb.

(15) Tony Perez (unranked/18th)--Jumps two slots to make the ballot. I would never have guessed that he would be on ballot, but when you realize how much 3rd base he played, he has a very nice prime followed by a series of bulk seasons that in contrast with some candidates (like Staub) actually had some real value.


Nellie Fox is an ok candidate; I just prefer my middle infielders hit a bit more. I have him 42th.

Fingers is number 16. When you make adjustments for leverage and postseason performance he is right in the mix with Shocker.

When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere around 50th.

I have Reuschel 52nd but am still working on him. Lynn is somewhere between 60 and 100; Quiz is in the 90's. None of the others crack the top 100.
   138. OCF Posted: March 26, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2318054)
Keller --Identical to Dick Allen offensively

The shortest is explanation of the difference between your ballot placement and mine is that I disagree with this specific statement.
   139. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 26, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2318067)
The shortest is explanation of the difference between your ballot placement and mine is that I disagree with this specific statement.


As a huge supporter of Keller, I still have to agree that Allen was the better hitter, even when you give appropriate credit to King Kong.
   140. mulder & scully Posted: March 26, 2007 at 06:36 PM (#2318110)
Used to be Kelly in SD

1996 Ballot

To recap my balloting:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.

1. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): The weight of the evidence.

2. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906): The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders with Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
Top 10 position player in 1876, 1878, 1879, 1883, 1884, 1885. Eleventh in 1877. Pro-rated 10th or 11th after blacklisted in 1880. Blacklisted in 1881 and 1882. Best player in 1884, top 4 in 1878, 1879 and 1885.

3. Charlie Keller (PHOM 1957): MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979. Top 10 position player in AL in 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, and 1946. If you pro-rate his 1945 season, he is top 10 that year also. Ranks: 10th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th. 1945 pro-rated he comes out the best position player along with Greenberg.

4. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958): Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

5. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921): Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

6. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919): A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

7. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966): Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

8. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979): Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis.

9. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942): Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906.

10. Keith Hernandez (PHOM 1996): I don’t have my files at work, but from memory, he had a great prime. Also, the discussion of his fielding convinces me that Win Shares underrates him a good deal.

11. Jimmy Wynn (PHOM 1984): 4 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors. Best centerfielder eligible from Mays until ... Dale Murphy? Five years after Griffey, Jr. retires? Top 10 in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, and 1974. 9th, 3rd, 4th, 11th, 6th, 4th.

12. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

13. Roush (PHOM 1940): 3 MVP type years, excellent defense. Top 10 in NL in 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1923, 1925, 1926. 4th t/9th t, 5th t/11th t, 1st/2nd, 2nd/5th, 3rd t/8th t, 9th/15th t, 9th t/22nd t.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1917-20, 1923. Top 3 in majors in 1919, 1920.

14. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964): Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) After being close to returning the ballot for years, he finally does.

15. Rollie Fingers: I’m still not sure about him. Without him, the A’s don’t win at least one World Series. He was very durable for a very long time. He didn’t have the peak of a Gossage or a Hiller or a Sutter. Could move up or down in near future.
   141. mulder & scully Posted: March 26, 2007 at 06:40 PM (#2318112)
16. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985): Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

17: Cooper, Wilbur (PHOM 1985): He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

18: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961): Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

19. Don Newcombe: Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starters in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.

20. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987): I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1906, 1908. Rank in league/majors: 5th/8th, 10th/24th, 7th/11th, 8th/15th. Best catcher in majors in 1905, 1906, 1908. Best centerfielder in majors 1903.

21. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

22. Jack Fournier: Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career.

23. Frank Howard: Just slightly below the left field knot at 14/16/18 and Billy Williams. Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.

24. Luke Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.

25. Herman Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889

26. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. May need to do a recall election...

27. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

28. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

29. Graig Nettles: A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978

30. Dan Quisenberry: He was very effective in the early 80s. I understand that he gave up more inherited baserunners than expected, but the innings pitched, lack of walks and lack of homeruns are very impressive to me. He and Stieb were the best AL pitchers of the first half of the 1980s.
   142. Ken Fischer Posted: March 26, 2007 at 06:54 PM (#2318122)
1996 Ballot

Sorry about missing 1995. I had my ballot ready to go on my computer and I sat down for a minute and fell asleep. Next thing I knew the deadline had passed the results posted!

1-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days. Dick should move up this time!

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I refuse to desert Van.

3-Mickey Welch 354 WS
How can we forget that 1885 season! 300-game winners aren't automatic in the HOM!

4-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive. Carl needs some love.

5-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

6-Keith Hernandez 311 WS
A quick fade at the end hurts Hernandez. But his glove makes up the difference. He does great hair commercials.

7-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

8-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

9-Rollie Fingers 188 WS
Best reliever to come on the ballot in awhile. Hard to judge…he may move up next time.

10-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

11-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

12-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

13-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

14-Nellie Fox 304 WS
Fox gets lost in the bridge between eras. Some great years in the late 50s get him on my ballot.

15-Jim Wynn 305 WS
The Toy Cannon finally makes my ballot. He had solid OPS from mid-60s to mid-70s during an era that was tough on hitters.

I’m still confused about the group’s strong support for Keller. He needed to play a little longer. Yes, you can say the same thing about others I’ve voted for…and yes, the war years hurt him. I’m just not ready to put him on my ballot. But that may be a moot point next week.
   143. mulder & scully Posted: March 26, 2007 at 06:56 PM (#2318127)
31. Orlando Cepeda: A little ahead of Cash based on in-season durability. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
Top 10/12/15 in league (up to 62/62-68/69 - ): 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1967
Rank in league: 9th t/19th t, 6th/8th, 6th/11th t, 7th t/11th t, 7th/7th, 3rd/5th, (11th in 1958)
Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. Best LF in 1960.

32. Vern Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense. The AL in the 1940s had the following shortstops: Boudreau, Appling, Rizzuto, Joost, and Pesky. Pretty good grouping.
Top 10 in league in 1944, 1945, 1948, 1949 (11th 1943, 1947, 13th in 1950)
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd, 3rd/9th t, 9th t/14th t, 3rd/6th t.
Best shortstop in league in 1944, 1945. 2nd to HoMer Boudreau in 1943, to Joost in 1949, to Rizzuto in 1950 (by far), 3rd to Boudreau and Joost in 1948. In majors in 1944, 1945.

33. Elston Howard: I kept overlooking him. I don’t know what to do about balancing his actual value to the team compared with his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

34. Dave Concepcion:
Top 15 in league in 1974, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1981
Rank in league/majors: 13th t/19th t, 15th t/31st t, 12th t/20th t, 14th t/28th t, 4th/9th t,
Best Shortstop in league in 1974, 1976, 1978, (2nd in 1979 by 1), 1980, 1981.
In majors in 1974, 1976 t, 1978, (2nd in 1979 by 1), 1981.

35. Fred Lynn: If only he could stay healthy. Yes, he took advantage of Fenway, but that was a phenomenal peak. But it was not consecutive and he just didn’t play enough games.

36. Sal Bando: A conservative placement. There are so many good thirdbasemen in this era that I want to be careful. Could move up if I see a good enough argument. His peak is very good, his prime is good but his career is so-so as are his per-year numbers.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1978
Rank in league/majors: 3rd/6th t, 3rd t/9th t, 12th t/25th t, 2nd t/6th t, 12th t/24th t, 11th t/28ht t.
Top 3b in league in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973. In majors in 1969, 1972, 1973.

37. Dizzy Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there. Hello, Al Rosen.
Top 5 starters in league in 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/6th, 5th/9th, 1st/1st, 1st/2nd, 2nd/2nd

38. Wally Berger: Not enough career for me. Reevaluated. Excellent peak, 5 other all-star years after I give one year of MLE credit for 1929.
Top 10 in league in 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1936.
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/21st t, 1st/6th, 6th/14th, 1st/2nd t, 3rd/5th t, 10th t/21st t (13th in 1935).
Top 3 OF in league: 1931, 1933, 1934 and NL best CF in 1932 (5th overall). In majors 1931, 1933, 1934.

39. John McGraw: Just not healthy enough. After having looked at the following McGraw gets a move up.
Top 10 (15 from 92-99) in league: 1893, 1894, 1898, 1899
Rank in league/majors: 14th t, 5th t, 5th, 2nd, (16th in 1895 but 4th among non-OF, 17th in 1897 but 6th among non-OF, 11th in 1900 but 2nd among non-OF)
Best in league at position, 3rd base: 1899, 1900. In majors in 1899, 1900.

40. Buddy Bell: Not quite Nettles.

41. Norm Cash: I had been overrating him. I did not look close enough at how he compared to other 60s players. Top 10 in league only 4 times: 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966. Adjusting for additional teams only adds 1971. 2nd/2nd, 10th t/27th t, 10th t/25th t, 6th/13th, 13th w/24 (71).
Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Best in majors in 1961. Even with the missed games.

42. Nellie Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
Top 10 in league in 1952, 1954, 1955, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960 (11th in 1951, 1953): .
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/24th t, 8th t/14th t, 5th/14th t, 3rd/6th, 10th t/17th t, 1st t/5th t, 9th t/22nd t,
Best 2b in league in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1960. In majors in 1955, 1957, 1959, 1960 t.

43. Wally Schang: I see the arguments. 6 times top 10 in OBP, 4 times in SLG and OPS, 5 times in OPS+.
Never in top 10 players in league because of playing time.
Best catcher in league in 1913, 1914, 1919, 1921. In majors in 1914, 1919, 1921.

44. Bob Elliott: I need to review his candidacy. Reviewed Boyer and I like Elliott better.
Top 10 in league in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950.
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/14th t, 8th t/13th t, 3rd/5th, 4th/8th, 10th t/20th t, 7th t/12th t. (12th in 1942)
Best 3rd baseman in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950. In majors in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948 and virtual ties in 1949, 1950.
Very little difference for me between Bando, McGraw, Elliott, Boyer, Lyons, and Williamson.

45. Jim Rice: Little difference between Singleton and Bonds/Staub.

46. Jack Stivetts: 4th best pitcher in the 1890s. Trouble was he pitched right as the distance changed and he was worked to death to start his career.
Top 4 (6 in 12 team era) in league: 1890, 1891, 1892, 1894
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/9th (even with a 15% discount), 1st/2nd (no discount) or 4th (20% discount), 1st, 8th in 1893, 6th, 8th in 1896.
   144. mulder & scully Posted: March 26, 2007 at 06:59 PM (#2318131)
47. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939): Moved down in comparison with Mike Tiernan. Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
Top 10 in league (top 15 in 12 team era) in 1890, 1891, 1894, 1895, 1896, 1897, 1898 (11th t in 1889 and 1900)
Rank in league/majors: combination pitcher/outfielder ranked 5th best player with all pitchers ahead of him, 5th/7th t, 11th t, 13th t, 12th, 9th t, 6th t.
Top 3 in outfielders in league(top 5 in 12-team era) in 1898. In majors in 1898.

48. Mike Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
Top 10 (15 from 1892-1899) in league in 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1895, 1896, 1897 .
Rank in league/majors: 7th/9th, 1st t/3rd t, 4th t/8th t, 3rd t/7th t, 13th, 8th, 11th.
Top 3 OF or top 5 in 12-team league: 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1896. Top 3/5 in majors: 1889, 1890, 1891, 1896.

49. Luis Tiant: A lot of pitchers put up great numbers in the 60s and 70s. Tiant doesn’t match them. Hall of Very Good. 3 times a major league all-star is good.
Top 5 starter (61-68) top 6 (69- ) in league: 1968, 1974, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd, 2nd/2nd, 5th/5th (7th t in 1967, 7th t in 1972, 9th t in 1973)

50. Sal Maglie: Credit for Mexican League helps

51. Carl Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding, by Chris J’s RSI and Defensive support measures. Too bad he doesn’t have an “average” aging pattern in 1922, 1923, and 1925.
Top 5 starters in league in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1920, 1921.
Rank in league/majors: 5th t/9th t, 4th/5th, 4th/5th t, 3rd t/6th t, 2nd/2nd

52. Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw

53. George Scales: Pretty good player. Will probably move up after I adjust for Hall of Fame’s new numbers.

54. Hippo Vaughn: Excellent peak, but not enough career in the majors.
Top 5 starters in league in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920
Rank in league/majors: 3rd t/7th t, 3rd/8th, 1st/4th, 1st/1st (I don’t count Cicotte’s year), 4th/11th t (plus an 8th in the AL in 1910 and NL in 1915)

55. Thurman Munson: Career wasn’t long enough and peak wasn’t high enough. There were a lot of excellent catcher years/careers in the 1970s: Bench/Fisk/Tenace/Simmons. Munson is definitely Hall of Very Good.
Top 15 in league in 1970, 1973, 1975, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 12th/25th t, 9th t/22nd t, 12th t/27th t, 12th t/24th t.
Top C in league: 1970, 1973, 1976. In majors: 1976.

56. Gene Tenace:
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/18th t, 13th t/31st t, 2nd/5th, 10th t/20th t, 14th t/28th t, (19th in 1976, 1978)
Best catcher in league in 1975 (2nd in league in 1977 and 1979). In majors in 1975.
Best first baseman in league in (2nd in 1973).

57. Lon Warneke: A good peak, but not as high as Dean and his career is not long enough.
Top 5 starters in league in 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935
Rank in league/majors: 1st/2nd, 2nd t/2nd t, 3rd/6th, 5th t/9th t (plus a 6th in 1940 and 1941.

58. Bus Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.

59. Urban Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
Top 5 starters in league in (1920), 1921, 1922, 1923, 1926
Rank in league/majors: 6th/10th, 3rd/3rd, 2nd/2nd, 2nd t/5th t, 4th/10th t (plus an 8th in 1924, a 9th in 1925

60. Fielder Jones: Excellent defender, 7 Gold Gloves by Win Shares. Quit after 1908 because Comiskey was such an ass with which to deal.
Top 10 in league: 1901, 1902, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/16th t, 5th t/9th t, 3rd t/7th t, 7th/14th, 8th/13th, 4th t/5th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1901, 1902, 1905, 1906, 1908. In majors in 1908.

61. Denny Lyons:
Top 10 in league in 1887, 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893.
Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 9th t/24th t, 6th t/10th t, 2nd/5th t (no reduction) or 16th (with 15% reduction), 8th t/between 16th and 20th, 12th t.
Best 3rd baseman in league in 1887, 1890, 1891. In majors in 1887.

62. Ed Williamson:
Top 10 in league in 1879, 1882, 1884, 1885.
Rank in league/majors: 4th, 8th t/10th t, 9th t/20th t, 9th/16th, (12th in 1881 but 5th among non-OF)
Best 3rd baseman in 1879 (King Kelly is Utility with his 33 g at 3rd, 29 OF, and 21 C), 1882. In majors in 1879, 1882.

63: Bobby Bonds: 4 very good years is not enough, especially considering how many good outfielders there are in the late 60s/early 70s. Very good peak, but many outfielders had better in that era.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1977. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/11th t, 4th/8th, 4th/5th t, 14th t/25th t, 5th t/6th t, 11th t/25th t, 14th t/25th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1970, 1971, 1973. In majors in 1970, 1971.

and

Rusty Staub: A great run in his 20s gets him in the conversation. But the injury in 1972 when he was on pace for 30-32 win share season and the loss of power when he turned 29 derailed a HoM career. There are a lot of almost, not quite outfielders in the 1970s.
Top 15 in league in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/14th t, 10th t/15th t, 11th t/18th t, 5th/10th t, 4th/5th t, 15th t/30th t, 13th t/21st t, 5th/12th.
Top 3 outfielder in Lg: 1970, 1971
In majors in 1970 (tied with many), 1971.

New players:
Bob Boone: Not enough hitting to go with the long career at catcher.

Bill Buckner: What a poor player for such a long career.

Chet Lemon: Good power, took walks, covered a lot of ground. Just not quite there by career/peak/or prime.

Rick Reuschel: Did have some big years, but there were many other pitchers of the era who did as well. Need to re-evaluate in “1997.”

Frank White: Great fielder. I remember Roberto Alomar-plus range. Too bad he didn’t learn to hit until late. And try taking a walk.
   145. DavidFoss Posted: March 26, 2007 at 07:36 PM (#2318151)
Here goes. As promised I did a re-eval to try to boost expansion era candidates and remove the 'teddy bear' biases I've picked up in 70+ years of voting (has it really been that long?). Anyhow, its hard work. I really like my teddy bears. My top four is still my pre-live ball group of faves. After that, I was able to find room for Cash, Howard & Hernandez among the later generations.

Anyhow, I'm on the lookout for glove-position candidates from the expansion era. Part of the problem is that I'm a big fan of bats and it appears that most of MLB went with light-hitting defensive specialists at 2B and SS during the 60s and 70s (or that we've already inducted guys like Bobby Grich).

1996 Ballot

1. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
2. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
3. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
4. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
5. Charlie Keller -- With war credit, his peak ranks right up with guys like Kiner.
6. Norm Cash -- Took another look at him. I'm liking him better than Keith Hernandez.
7. Roger Bresnahan -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
8. Rollie Fingers -- Best reliever eligible.
9. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
10. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
11. Charley Jones -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
12. Keith Hernandez -- Surprisingly high. Very consistent (not a high peak), yet a career rate that's higher than many backlog career guys.
13. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
14. Frank Howard -- Gets a boost from the post-expansion re-eval. This guy could really mash.
15. Pete Browning -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.

16-20. Rosen, Roush, Lombardi, Fox, BJohnson,
21-25. Beckley, Leach, Nettles, Bando, JWynn,
26-30. Cepeda, TJohn, Cey, Tiant, TPerez,
31-35. Singleton, Brock, Staub, Walters, Kaat
   146. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 26, 2007 at 09:14 PM (#2318268)
Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

Note that the previous ballot ranking dates to 1993, I missed 1994:

1. Rick Reuschel SP (n/e) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #30 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out. I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #46 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #35 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

2. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

3. Jack Quinn SP (4) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

4. Jake Beckley 1B (9) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore. He moves up this week because I noticed I had 6 of the first 7 as pitchers. I do think we are way too tough on the non-no-brainer pitchers, but I don't think it's quite that unbalanced.

5. Rollie Fingers RP (5) - Very easily the number 3 reliever we've seen through 1990, behind only Wilhelm and Gossage, way ahead of Sutter. He's the best I've found at preventing inherited runners from scoring. He was as leveraged as high as just about anyone. His peak is only beaten by Gossage (and Hiller if you call 1-year a peak). ERA+ severely understates how much he prevented runs from scoring, when I adjust for everything, I get his DRA+ at 124. His career was as long as any reliever except for Wilhelm. He's a laughably easy choice IMO, unless you think we should only have 1 or 2 relievers.

6. Tommy John SP (6) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

7. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

8. Tommy Bridges SP (8) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

9. Keith Hernandez 1B (n/e) - Another one that surprises me by how high he ranks. He was much better than I realized. Great defense, high OBP, gap power. I realize he didn't hit a ton of HR, but he didn't play in HR parks, and he still managed a career EQA of .301 and an OPS+ of 129. It wasn't a very long career, basically 13-14 years, but he was a great player.

10. Charlie Keller LF (10) - Gave him minor league credit for 1938, when he was clearly major league quality, and I threw in war credit. He comes out way ahead of Kiner once I do this.

11. Graig Nettles (11) - Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I think he's a fairly easy choice, especially considering our lack of 3B.

12. Thurman Munson C (12) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

13. Buddy Bell 3B (13) - Just a hair behind Nettles - arguably as good as fielder (though about a season less at 3B) and a hair behind as a hitter also. Who realized at the time that he was one of the best players in the game from 1980-82?

14. Dave Concepcion SS (14) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

15. Wally Schang C (15) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bennett and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense was questionable.
   147. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 26, 2007 at 09:15 PM (#2318272)
Honorable Mention:

16. Ben Taylor 1B (16) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

17. Rusty Staub RF (17) - Finally pushed him higher, I like career candidates with nice peaks, and from 1967-71 Staub was one of the best players in baseball. Looking at Jose Cruz made me realize I had Staub way too low.

18. Pie Traynor 3B (18) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one. He gets another bump this week. I don't agree with rating Boyer above him. Traynor far outhit his 3B peers relative to Boyer and his.

Honorable Mention:

19. Dave Bancroft SS (19) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

20. Jimmy Wynn CF (20) - I had him too low. Man this ballot is jammed with great players.

21. Darrell Porter C (21) - A lot higher than I thought he'd be. His 1979 was an MVP caliber season - of course it came in the one year between 1977-81 that the Royals didn't make the playoffs, so he finished 9th behind guys like Mike Flanagan and Gorman Thomas. As a catcher, in 679 PA, he had as good of an offensive season as the LF/DH that won the award. I could see ranking him almost as high as Freehan. I wish I'd looked at this sooner - I'd like to see him get the close look that Ron Cey got. Porter was definitely a better player.

22. Charley Jones LF (22) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player. I have dropped him this week. I still think he was great, but I think I'd been giving him a little too much credit for his AA seasons.

23. Jim Fregosi SS (23) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

24. Don Newcombe SP (24) - Gets color-line and Korea credit. Moving up this week after a few tweaks in the system adjusting for fielding behind him.

25. Bucky Walters SP (25) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

27. Ken Singleton RF (26) - I've got him as very similar to Henrich. Singleton lasted longer (ever after accounting for the war), but Henrich was a much better fielder. Henrich had more power and Singleton more OBP. But when you add it all up, their overall value was quite similar.

26. Burleigh Grimes SP (27) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. The updated fielding adjustments in WARP drop him a little in the rankings.

27. Phil Rizzuto SS (28) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

28. Norm Cash 1B (29) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

29. Roger Bresnahan C/OF (30) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

31. Tommy Henrich RF (31) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

32. Luis Tiant SP (32) - Very nice career. Said I could see ranking him a little higher, now I've done it.

33. Cecil Travis SS (33) - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

34. Nellie Fox 2B (34) - Long solid career at a key position.

35. Reggie Smith OF (44) - Very good player, but missed a lot of time in his good years. Only played 150 games 3 times. Ranking Lynn made me realize I had Smith too low.

36. Alejandro Oms OF (43) - Pretty good hitter, conservative ranking, I really don't have a handle on him. Moved him up somet his week.

37. Tony Lazzeri 2B (35) - Great hitter for a 2B. Short career and fielding keep him from being higher.

38. Virgil Trucks SP (36) - Very underrated pitcher, hurt by the war.

39. Waite Hoyt SP (37) - Peak is nothing special, but good pitcher for a long time.

40. Bob Johnson LF (38) - Overlooked star, not much difference between Johnson and Medwick.

41. Fred Lynn CF (n/e) - Not a lot of difference between #20 and #50. 130 OPS+ CF with 8000 PA. Imagine if he could have stayed healthy.

42. Bert Campaneris SS (39) - He would be much higher if I only compared him to his peers. SS didn't hit at all when he played (average OWP for SS during his career was .370). I split the difference and here is where he ends up. I could see moving him higher.

43. Toby Harrah 3B/SS (40) - This guy could flat hit. If he wasn't so bad with the glove, I could see myself endorsing him for election - he was clearly a good enough hitter for the positions he played. But I can't get him past Lazzeri. He's also under 9000 PA, and I just can't get him past HoVG. But he was a much better player than I realized as an 11 year old watching him on the 1984 Yankees . . .

44. Ron Cey (41) - I see him as similar to Boyer, with a lower peak.

45. Chet Lemon (n/e) - Don't skip over him. 88 FRAA mostly in CF, .289 career EQA, 121 OPS+, almost 8000 PA.

46. Gene Tenace C/1B (42) - Could go higher than this, just a machine as a hitter, and 900 games caught. Kind of a poor man's Joe Torre.

47. Jim Rice (45) - Not as a good a hitter for his career as Smith. Not close really. Also, Smith played CF. Rice catches him with his extra 2 seasons.

48. Dick Redding SP (46) - I'm just not seeing what everyone else does for some reason.

49. Dizzy Trout SP (47) - Great peak. Funny that I only have Dean as the #2 ranked "Dizzy", but that's how I see it.

50. John McGraw 3B (48) - If only he could have stayed in the lineup more.

51. Edd Roush CF (49) - I can't argue with guys that vote for him.

52. Jose Cruz LF (50) - If only he'd gotten off to a better start.

Pete Browning - Let's be careful here guys. He was not a good fielder, in an era where fielding was very important. He played in extremely weak leagues during the prime of his career. If he'd had a long career, I could see getting on board, but he has too many weaknesses to overcome his short career - this isn't Albert Belle or Charlie Keller - this is Hack Wilson.

Newbies:

Dan Quisenberry - good pitcher, but wasn't leveraged nearly as much as some of the other closers, and his career was short. Among eligible relievers, I have Quisenberry 11th, behind Wilhelm, Fingers, Sutter, Miller, McDaniel, McGraw, Hiller, Tekulve, Marshall and Face. I also have him behind contemporaries Gossage, Smith, Righetti (if you count his starting) and Reardon.

Quis was just terrible with inherited runners, the worst I've found, except for Jack Baldschun. Quisenberry allowed 27.5 more inherited runners to score than average, which is an enormous total. I wonder if it has something to do with his low strikeout rates?

He had some very good years, especially 1983. But his career was extremely short (basically 1980-87). His defenses were generally phenomenal, and he was in the weaker league (the NL was way ahead from 1980-83, the AL kind of caught up in 1984 as expansion washed out, but was still a little behind until 1988).

All of the little things knock Quisenberry down the ladder to the HoVG.

White, Boone and Buckner. All pretty good (in that order). If White could have hit in his 20s, like he did in his 30s, he'd probably be near the top of the ballot.
   148. Mike Webber Posted: March 26, 2007 at 09:40 PM (#2318304)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) EDD ROUSH – 314 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Edd is better than Wynn. More career win shares, with out any schedule adjustment. Played his whole career in center field, while Wynn spent 1/3 of his career elsewhere while Ron Davis and Roland Office played center. Significant lead in both black and gray ink – both played in generally poor hitters parks.
2) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a top of the ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 20 player at his position.
3) JIMMY WYNN – 305 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Jimmy Wynn is better than Edd. PRO+ is slightly higher. Played in a tougher environment, especially when you add in the Federal League. While both played in poor hitters parks, Wynn’s style was more adversely affected by the Astrodome than Redland/Crosley Field hurt singles hitting Roush.
4) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
5) NELLIE FOX –304 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
6) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
7) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
8) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
9) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
10) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
11) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 mvp type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
12) ORLANDO CEPEDA 310 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ win shares.
13) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
14) Larry Doyle 289 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
15) Keith Hernandez 311 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 10 seasons 20+ win shares.


Disclosures:

Charlie Keller – four MVP type seasons, I am not comfortable figuring MVP type seasons for 1944 and 1945. If you give him 30 win share seasons those two years I can see how you have him near the top of the ballot. I think 25 Win Share seasons are more reasonable, and thus he is short.

Rollie Fingers – not convinced that there is enough leverage available to make his career and peak values big enough to put him on the ballot. I have been thinking about what the minimum amount of career win shares it would take to make my ballot. Koufax has the fewest of any player I have voted for, 194 and he had 3 MVP type seasons.

Pete Browning – Heck of a hitter, short seasons, suspect league, suspect fielding, suspect teammate.

Newbies –
Fred Lynn – I see behind the trio of 1890’s guys in center.

Frank White – if he had only hit a big homer in the 1980 World Series maybe he’d get a plaque in Cooperstown next to Maz!

Dan Quiz – Better than Fingers! (Puts foam finger that says Royals #1 back into storage).
   149. sunnyday2 Posted: March 26, 2007 at 09:53 PM (#2318322)
>1. Rick Reuschel SP (n/e) - This ranking surprises me a great deal.

Rico, all is forgiven.
   150. mulder & scully Posted: March 26, 2007 at 09:54 PM (#2318323)
Oh, I forgot to mention Beckley.

Not to reopen old wounds, but I am one of his biggest detractors. I think most everyone knows my reasons.
   151. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:00 PM (#2318333)
Rico, all is forgiven.

I don't buy Joe's analysis in regard to Reuschel, but you can't say that he didn't give all of us a detailed reasoning for his selection at #1. That's all we can ask.
   152. Esteban Rivera Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:05 PM (#2318336)
1996 Ballot:

1. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

2. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

3. Edd Roush – Includes considerations for hold out credit.

4. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

5. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

6. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

7. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

8. Rollie Fingers – Given some post-season credit. His career taken all together is around the bubble.

9. Keith Hernandez – The biggest headache for me this year. His defense is what actually edges him ahead of the other first basemen on my ballot.

10. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good.

11. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

12. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

13. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

14. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

15. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Jimmy Wynn – In my top 30.

Charlie Keller – Gets some credit but not enough to overcome the playing time issues to get him on my ballot.
   153. Michael Bass Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:11 PM (#2318344)
I use WARP3 as my primary tool, with mental adjustments to downgrade (not eliminate, but downgrade) the timeline. I prefer gloves with moderate bats to bats with terrible gloves; both Stargell and Killebrew are not in my PHOM, though they're in the queue. I'm peak-oriented, but my system is much more friendly to long career candidates than it once was, when those long careers stand out, or have an extended prime, if not an outstanding peaks.

PHOM this year is Hernandez, Wynn, and Buddy Bell


1. Fred Dunlap (PHOM 1926) - I'm close to alone on this one. My case for him is simple, he was one of baseball's best players for 6 straight years. Win shares underrates him, just as it overrates pitchers from the era. Very good hitter, great fielder from an era when fielding meant more.

2. Bob Elliot (PHOM 1968) - Never understood the lack of love for him. I have always viewed him as very close, just short of Stan Hack. This time around, I liked Hack a lot, so Elliot slots in very highly, as we're real deep into the backlog at this point.

3. Bob Johnson (PHOM 1971) - Maybe the foremost all-prime career. Gets no minor league credit despite his late start (it was investigated at the time, he was just a late bloomer). Like Elliot takes a slight minus from his raw stats for the inflated 44-45 years when they were playing with a bunch of AA guys. Clockwork hitter for 12 of his 13 years.

4. Phil Rizzuto (PHOM 1972) - Scooter is the first pure glove man on my ballot; an outstanding shortstop with an average bat (MVP level the year he was more than an average bat). Add in 3 years of war credit (which came right in the middle of his best years), and you get him to this spot.

5. Keith Hernandez (PHOM 1996) - Honestly did not expect him to slot in this high, but here we are. Better than Evans, as he brought more consistency to the table. Great prime candidate, with some peak in the mix as well. Other than that, I'll just echo what everyone else said, strong bat, amazing glove man.

6. Rabbit Maranville (PHOM 1976) - Rizzuto for an earlier generation. Longer career (gets nearly a year of war credit), doesn't have the one year peak of Rizzuto, and was a moderately worse hitter. But an amazing fielder forever. I'll be a big Ozzie supporter, and this guy was Ozzie-lite.

7. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1979) - Had a very nice peak just before the war, and some shoulder seasons before that and during the war.

8. Dick Redding (PHOM 1981) - Had a nice career length, and the numbers indicate a strong peak as well. Not long enough career or high enough peak to go higher than this, but enough of both to land here.

9. Dave Concepcion (PHOM 1994) - Well, I'm voting for Rizzuto and Maranville, so this vote should shock no one. Good career value, plenty of prime value, lacks Rizzuto's peak or Maranville's career, and is thus 3rd of the 3.

10. Urban Shocker (PHOM 1942) - Nice prime, nice 1920-1923 peak, all in the strong league at the time.

11. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1986) - Long career, wrong league, but some nice seasons along the way. He's in my view what Eppa Rixey (who I didn't like) was to most other people. Not overly enthused by him, or anyone else on this portion of the ballot (after Trouppe I'd say), but we're deep into the backlog, both for PHOM purposes and for my ballot.

12. Dave Bancroft (PHOM 1987) - Rizzuto-esque candidate. A little more consistent bat, not quite the glove, though still real good with it. Long career, plenty of prime.

13. Bill Monroe (PHOM 1930) - Largely forgotten 2B from the first documented days of the Negro Leagues, was a solid glove a pretty good bat for a long time. In retrospect, wish we'd centered on him, rather than Grant, about whom there was very little evidence and a whole lot of guesswork.

14. Thurman Munson (PHOM 1987) - Plenty of defense, plenty of hitting, durable. I'm honestly surprised he doesn't get more support, the untimely death didn't really cut much off his career, he left behind a very strong HOM case.

15. Jake Beckley (PHOM 1931) - Yeah, I'll never hear the end of this one, but his career stands out for the era, even if he's still peakless. It's a testament to how deep we are into the backlog that he's on the ballot, but anyone who stands out like his career does is looking pretty good at this point.


16. Dizzy Dean (PHOM 1988) - I wonder how many ballots have Beckley and Dean side by side. Anyway, all peak, obviously.
17. Lave Cross (PHOM 1988) - Back to the career, plus a touch of catching credit (even when not catching, he played a tough position and played it well).
18. Tony Perez (PHOM 1995) - Lots of career, and plenty of prime as well. Never understood the irritation many statheads expressed when he got in. Sure there are better players out, but he is not any sort of slouch by the Hall's induction standards. If he'd stayed at 3B longer, he'd be a particularly obvious HOMer.
19. Jimmy Wynn (PHOM 1996) - Another peak/prime candidate, kinda vanilla otherwise, but he was a very strong player for several years, and good for a few more. Would be on my ballot easily if his defense were a plus.
20. Buddy Bell (PHOM 1996) - Never though I'd be PHOMing Bell, but here we are. Nearly identical to Nettles, who is next in the queue. Neither had a great peak, but had a strong career that oozed with prime.


Other top 10 returnees

37. Charlie Keller - Missed some games at his peak which kept it from being high enough to overcome his very short career. Only 1.5 years of war credit.
22. Nellie Fox - Basically Rizzuto, but at 2B rather than SS, and the difference hurts on a ballot this bunched up.
NR. Edd Roush - Consistently missing games, in the weak league, not a good fielder, not a great hitter. Pass.
81. Pete Browning - Not in love, no fielding, career is short for an OF.
26. Rollie Fingers - Might squeeze into my PHOM one day, but I believe the importance of relievers is vastly overblown by baseball men, and I don't feel compelled to go along with it too much. If pressed on it, I'd say Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera were the only HOM relievers, with a couple others (including Fingers) right on the borderline.
71. Charley Jones - Even with blacklist credit, he just didn't have a long enough career for an OF of this era. I'd rather have Dunlap a million times over.



Other newcomers

34. Reuschel - Nice player, but not as good as Tiant, who also lingers off my ballot.
66. Lemon - In the Speier zone; closer to the HOVG than I would have ever thought to be honest.
90. Lynn - Wow. I just don't see it at all. I know some people don't weigh seasonal stuff much, but the man played 140 games *4* times in his career. Four. Unless he was Hughie Jennings in those 4 years (he wasn't), I see no way to make him into a viable candidate. Rice was a much, much more meritorious player.

NR. Quisenberry - Nice couple years, not enough, not close to Fingers or Marshall, the top two non-elected relievers in my view.
   154. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:29 PM (#2318361)
Regarding the 'rico' situation . . . I don't think anyone was out of line asking for an explanation.

Especially when someone posted the stats for some similar career length players who had him by 20+ points of OPS+.

I do think that in that case, it is up to the voter to either justify the ballot or change it, can't just go with no response.

Rico changed his ballot which is fine, and I assume ends the discussion.

Regarding Reuschel, I explained everything above, if anyone wants to continue the discussion on his ballot thread, that would be fine. I urge anyone whose career value system doesn't have Reuschel high to take another look at their system.
   155. DL from MN Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:33 PM (#2318363)
Michael Bass, where do you rank Dick Lundy? You vote for lots of ++defense glove men.
   156. EricC Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:39 PM (#2318369)
996 ballot. Some very good newcomers, but none of them make my ballot.

1. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards.

2. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar, and scrapes my ballot this year. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of
their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the mock BBWAA election shows some level of support exists.

3. Charlie Keller Consistent all-star to MVP level of play at corner OF 1939-1947, with a peak that looks as high and more sustained to me than Kiner's did. Believe that his peak would have been maintained during WWII and thus give war credit at this level.

4. Nellie Fox Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to some peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s IF, helps to boost his chance of eventual election. For those who don't see it, perhaps you aren't considering his "A" defense?

5. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF, unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). Maybe I should call all the bats that crowd the middle to bottom of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates".

6. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

7. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

8. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

9. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

10. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

11. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

12. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

13. Jimmy Wynn Multiple years of all-star quality CF play. Sabermetric poster child- 0.250 BA, but played a defensive position, had a 0.400ish secondary average, and played in a pitcher's era.

14. Jim Kaat

15. Roger Bresnahan Mutiple years of all-star level C play and wasn't too shabby in the CF either.

Edd Roush was the 43rd greatest ML CF and 428th greatest ML player. Too many great centerfielders as exact contemporaries for Roush to stand out.

Fingers looks to me like a "career reliever" candidate, like Lee Smith. This type does not come out highly in my system, though I can see the argument for having more relievers than I'm likely to put in my PHoM.

Considering the context of thin and weak competition, lack of durability, and career shortness, there is less than meets the eye in Browning's case. Would be a mistake to elect him before more worthy 1890s candidates such as Beckley, Duffy, McGraw, Ryan, and Van Haltren.
   157. ronw Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:44 PM (#2318376)
Wait a minute. Wasn't rico's ballot comment plus his explanation a couple of posts below enough justification?

Let's assume rico didn't change his ballot. Would you have bounced rico's ballot without more?
   158. Michael Bass Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:45 PM (#2318378)
Lundy is currently in my 30s, though I could stand to look at him again to make sure that's accurate; he's a good comp to several people on my ballot, you are correct. I was definately looking with interest when Chris Cobb posted about his offense earlier this ballot period. An upward adjustment certainly would have placed him on my ballot.
   159. Chris Fluit Posted: March 26, 2007 at 10:49 PM (#2318382)
Not to be picky, Eric, but do you have any comments on Kaat?
   160. Trevor P. Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:02 PM (#2318389)
1) Keith Hernandez (ne). I was going to be conservative and place him lower, but then I thought - what's really going to change in my analysis? The case is pretty straightforward: 7 seasons with 8.0+ WARP3; 5 seasons with 140+ OPS, 7 with 130+, and many are OBP-heavy. More prime than Bob Johnson, my favorite prime candidate. And that glove.
2) George Van Haltren (2). Why Ashburn and (possibly) Wynn, yet no love any more for GVH? 9,000+ PA, 121 OPS+ that would be higher if not for his final two years, and almost 700 IP.
3) Jake Beckley (3). Too much career to ignore, even though I give more weight to prime than I used to.
4) Bob Johnson (6). Can't wait for him to make the top 10 and revisit all the Minnie Minoso/Joe Medwick comparisons. Beats Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s. And this is his ranking without minor league credit (which he could deserve).
5) Edd Roush (7). Also comparable to Ashburn. Nice to see his recent rise.
6) Tony Perez (8). Could be anywhere from #3 to the bottom of this ballot. Has a more typical career arc than Beckley, and played 1/3 of his career at 3B, but long careers were more predominant in Perez’s day.
7) Jimmie Wynn (9). Got the spot on my ballot I’d originally reserved for Reggie Smith. Undeniably strong OBP+.
8) Burleigh Grimes (10). If he’d grouped his great and middling seasons together, rather than vacillating between the highs and lows, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
9) Bob Elliott (11). Tough call between him, Nettles, and Cey, but Elliott’s 124 OPS+ stands out more from his peers.
10) Jimmy Ryan (12). All the GVH comparisons are valid.
11) Dick Redding (13). A slightly-lesser version of Grimes.
12) Alejandro Oms (14). Fits my preferred CF profile - long career, decent prime, OPS above 120. Echoes of Roush and GVH.
13) Dave Bancroft (15). Won't be elected ahead of Nellie Fox, but they're not really that far apart.
14) Luis Tiant (ne). Really tight with Rick Reuschel. I prefer his slight advantage in DERA and top years.
15) Ken Singleton (ne). Five top-flight offensive seasons, lots of walks, a bit underrated by OPS given that he played in the DH league. Gets the nudge ahead of a number of similar 1B/OF types, including Norm Cash, Reggie Smith, Frank Howard, and Orlando Cepeda.

Reuschel - Playing it conservative for now, but he could be neck-and-neck with Tiant.
Keller - It looks like he'll go in before I vote for him. He's about the same as Kiner, in my opinion, with lots of bat-heavy peak, but even with full war credit (which brings him to about 85 WARP3) he's stuck in the high 20s.
Fingers - About #25. He’s probably the fifth or sixth best reliever of all time, in my system, and that’s not quite enough.
Quisenberry - Below Fingers. Way below.
Lynn - Suffers from the same durability issues that hamper Reggie Smith to a lesser degree. Offensive force, but doesn't really stick out. About #50.
Fox - Why Fox, but not Dave Bancroft? Heck, why not Dave Concepcion? Bancroft hit a bit more, Concepcion a bit less, but regardless, both were better fielders at more important positions. Still Fox is close, just off ballot.
Browning - Keller-lite. Career, fielding, league quality issues. Will likely never make ballot.
   161. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:03 PM (#2318390)
EricC where you at with Hernandez?

Not to be picky, Eric, but do you have any comments on Kaat?

Well, I always thought he had one of those puckery I-just-sucked-on-a-lemon kind of faces.

Ohhhh, you meant the other Eric C....
   162. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:05 PM (#2318393)
Wait a minute. Wasn't rico's ballot comment plus his explanation a couple of posts below enough justification?


Well...for one thing, he didn't respond to a few of our observations that he had quite a few guys off his ballot that were far superior to Buckner. Now, he may have a reason why Buckner should be placed above them, but he never gave us that reason. Probably because it may have been a "tip of the hat" selection, which might be why he didn't fight to keep him on. But as I have posted here a few times already, I honestly don't know.

As for disqualifying his original ballot, I'm still on record against that and haven't wavered from that position.
   163. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:11 PM (#2318397)
I would agree with wanting to see a comment on Kaat, who I don't have as one of the 30 best pitchers eligible, let alone players.

Ron - his explanation that he had a long career wasn't very convincing, especially when comparing him directly to Beckley and the others mentioned (I forget exactly who and the pages are loading slower than hell right now). I would have asked for a deeper explanation of how exactly he came to reason that Buckner was better than Beckley for one.

I'm glad I didn't have to make the decision on whether or not to bounce that ballot . . . but this whole project was started with the idea that people would question ballots. If some brings up an obvious lack of consistency in ones own rankings for example, you have to at least explain yourself. No one should take that personally. Heck, I anticipated it with my Reuschel comment, which is longer than just about anything I've posted on a ballot thread before.

You have to convince others to change their minds, but you at least have to convince us that you have a legitimate justification for what you are doing, based on logic and reason.

I don't think this would have been enough:

"I dunno...Buckner had a long career, good career stats, led the league in a couple of different stats, accumulated some solid seasons along the way."

I mean the obvious counter (which was mentioned) is that that also applies to a bunch of other guys, why is Buckner ahead of them?

Again not calling rico out, please don't take it personally. If anything this type of thing should be happening more often. No one was trying to 'impeach' you. But we were asking for an explanation of something that seems awfully tough to justify.

The #15 spot is not a throw-away spot. We've had elections decided by fewer points. Every spot counts, and we need to keep an eye on each other and be accountable to each other.
   164. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:11 PM (#2318398)
I'm submitting yest's prelim:

293. yest Posted: March 23, 2007 at 12:54 AM (#2316475)

John I'm still trying to work on my ballot and I might not have time to post the final version if I don't post a ballot by the end off the election can you please count this

1996 ballot
Hernadez , Buddy Myer, and Covelski make my PHOM this year


1. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
2. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
9. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
11. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
12. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
13. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1984)
14. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
15. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
16. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (made my personal HoM in 1991)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
25. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
28. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
29. Keith Hernandez 11 gold gloves (makes my personal HoM this year)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
37. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
38. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
39. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
41. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
42. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
44. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
45. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
46. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (makes my personal HoM this year)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Jimmy Wynn don’t buy the Houston logic
Charley Jones no black list points
Charle Keller I’m not giving him WWII or minor league credit of MVP seasons like others.
   165. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:25 PM (#2318413)
1996 ballot:


1. Rollie Fingers, rp: 3rd best reliever to date, behind the just-retired Gossage. (eligible & PHOM 1991)

2. Keith Hernandez, 1b: He, Cepeda and Cash are very close in several respects. Hernandez’s defense and career edges in WARP3 & TPR tip the scales for him. (eligible & PHOM 1996)

3. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

4. Nellie Fox, 2b: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

5. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

6. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

7. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

8. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

9. Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. 6 STATS all-star teams, 11 quality seasons. If we discount 10% for wartime performance, it’s 5.9 and 10.8 respectively. ;-) (eligible 1951)

10. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994)

11. Pie Traynor, 3b: 11 quality seasons, 6-time STATS all-star, but the OPS+ is just ordinary and defense isn’t outstanding. Slips a bit, as he may well have been a standout over a weak field. (eligible 1941, PHOM 1987)

12. Phil Rizzuto, ss: I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962)

13. Vern Stephens, ss: Best bat among the eligible shortstops, decent glove. (eligible 1961)

14. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985)

15. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA. Pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)



Required comments:
Jimmy Wynn: Pretty good peak, career, but I’m not as impressed as others, and think the home-park business is overstated. His home/road numbers don’t seem to support it.
Pete Browning, cf: Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. A force when in the lineup, but some in-season durability problems. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)
Charlie Keller: Even if I credit ~240 games of good performance in ’44-’45, he comes up short on career value. Only 7 full-time seasons including those, and a precipitous decline after WW2. No credit pre-1939 -- lots of people are “blocked” at ages 20-21.
Edd Roush: I’m not inclined to give him credit for his mini-, midi- and maxi-holdouts, so I see durability issues and him hurting his team by his absences. I’m also not wowed by his numbers in context of the time. I have Wynn & Reggie Smith ahead of him.
Jake Beckley: Very good for a long time. He went into my PHOM in ’26, but I’ve cooled off on him since.
   166. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:35 PM (#2318423)
1996 ballot

Note: This is sort of a ballot "in transition" as I wasn't able to finish AL and pitcher WARP, but I can estimate them well enough to vote in good conscience. I should have everything up to go by next "year."

1. John McGraw, $110,427,852
Downward revision of pre-1947 standard deviations, plus the fact that I was missing his .500 OBP half of 1901 from my spreadsheet (whoops!), zooms him up to an elect-me spot. I know, I know, he couldn't stay on the field. But I'm a sucker for peak rate, and the guy rang up a .500 OBP for a five-year stretch where offensive levels were similar to the recent "steroid era" rather than 1894-type absurdity, while wreaking havoc on the basepaths and playing an extremely scarce and demanding position, sometimes very well. I have his 1899 played at almost the same rate as Honus Wagner's 1908, before taking into account standard deviations. Yes, he was too fragile and played for too little time to add tons of wins to his teams' ledgers over his career. But he played at the level of an inner circle Hall member's peak when he did, and that's good enough for me.

2. David Concepción, $102,035,859
Given the amount of virtual ink I've spilled on him, it should surprise no one at this point that I have him this high. To rehash briefly: He was a career league average hitter, often notably better in his prime, a plus basestealer, and one of the best fielders ever at the most important defensive position (ask Michael Humphreys, whose Defensive Regression Analysis confirms him as an all-time elite glove man). And he played in an era where replacement shortstops were absolutely putrid and where standard deviations were historically low (a low-scoring, integrated league, many years removed from expansion). Thus, by my criteria--exceeding the positional replacement level of your time by the greatest number of standard deviations--he laps the field. Please save your vitriol for the Concepción thread, or for the thread on my WARP system--I'm happy to argue this one forever.

3. Reggie Smith, $93,755,717 + unspecified Japan credit
I've outlined my case for Smith on my WARP thread, where I argue he was equal to Stargell (a much better fielder, and played half his career at CF while Stargell had nearly half at 1B). I haven't figured out how much to boost him for his Japan play, but it's not enough to get him past Concepción.

4. Charley Jones, $93,471,511 - 1884 discount
Appears to have been a truly dominant player in the early years of the NL, particularly in 1879 which seems like one of the great single seasons of the era. I take him over Browning for playing half his career in the NL and for being a good and sometimes superb fielder. 'Zop has convinced me only to give credit for one blacklist year, which drops him below Smith. Downward revision of pre-integration standard deviations improves his standing relative to my previous ballot. His 1884 should be docked due to UA dilution, but not enough let Cey pass him.

5. Ron Cey, $89,682,011
My argument for him is on the WARP thread as well. In an era that was extremely tough to dominate and where replacement level for infielders was low, he combined All-Star hitting with notably plus defense for a decade.

6. Pete Browning, $88,997,116 - 1884 discount
There's no doubt the man could rake. But I'm not convinced by the "greatness can't take advantage of weaker competition" argument--Fred Dunlap would like a word with you, sir--and Browning clearly *did* take advantage of it just about as well as one could by racking up a .403 EqA in 1882. His short career, weaker league, and defensive misadventures--check out that .791 fielding percentage one year--drop him notably below Jones for me. Also benefits from my downward revision of standard deviations before 1947. I'm using BP's league difficulty factors to convert AA stats to NL. UA dilution discount won't drop him to #9.

7. Graig Nettles, $85,738,616
An unspectacular hitter at an offensive position, but one of the all-time defensive greats--his 1971 in particular is about the theoretical maximum for how much a player can contribute with the glove. The usual schtick about low stdevs and low replacement level for infielders in the 1970's, combined with a long career and great durability, get him here.

8. Charlie Keller, $83,786,487
I'm giving him war credit at a nudge below his 1942 level of performance, and neither giving him minor league credit nor penalizing him for wartime competiion in '43 and '45, which I'm assuming even out. Undoubtedly a great player, but just not for long enough.

9. Alejandro Oms, $82,593,158
With the help of a lower standard deviation estimate, his MLE's plus two years as an above-average regular in 1919-20 get him onto my ballot.

10. Dave Bancroft, $81,824,590
An all-time great fielder at shortstop, a very strong hitter for the position, and played in the lowest-stdev era of the prewar period. Takes his peer Rabbit to school.

11. Eddie Cicotte, $81,258,027
Clearly the best of the backlog pitchers in my opinion. A legitimate superstar from 1917-19 (he was hit-unlucky in 1918 compared to the two surrounding years), with a bunch of other useful seasons. He'd definitely have made my PHoM if he had kept on pitching and hadn't gotten himself, you know, banned from baseball by throwing the World Series. Kind of a late debut, not counting his cup of coffee with Detroit in 1905--is there any case for minor league credit here?

12. Roger Bresnahan
I haven't finished my catcher WARP yet, but I have seen that deadball C offense was *so* putrid that his value over replacement had to have been pretty substantial.

13. Norm Cash, $80,058,334
Yes, he corked his bat. Yes, it was an expansion year. Even so, his 1961 was worth a cool $21 million. He also played at an All-Star level in 1962 and 1965, and was a very consistently above average first baseman for the rest of his career.

14. Dick Redding
I'd rather vote for someone who may be deserving (since his record is spotty, there is a real possibility he was great) than for someone whom I know isn't.

15. Elston Howard
His MLB years were at a Meritorious level; it's not his fault he was blocked.

Missing

Jimmy Wynn
I see him as markedly inferior to Reggie Smith, as you can see on my WARP thread--equal hitters on a rate basis, but while Smith was slightly above average in the field for his career and sometimes much more so, Wynn was a bit of a defensive liability, and he played 1.4 fewer seasons than Reggie.

Nellie Fox
Are you kidding me? $51,106,516...Color me baffled. The guy had a grand total of one All-Star year by my count, maybe two if you include '59. I don't see him even smelling the Hall of the Very Good. 2B is not SS, people; don't get them confused.

Edd Roush
$72M before the Federal League and holdout seasons, and I don't think they add enough.

Rollie Fingers
I'm extremely persuaded by the "chaining" argument that relievers are even less valuable than one would otherwise think (see http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/jonathan-papelbon-and-replacement-level/), and my PHoM will include Wilhelm, Rivera, and possibly Gossage--none other.

Keith Hernandez
I'll have to see *conclusive* evidence that a 1B can really save 15-20 runs a year at his peak to elect a 1B whose offense was this pedestrian.

Jake Beckley
And there's no way I'd ever vote for a guy who didn't hit as well as Hernandez, wasn't on the same planet as a fielder, and played in easy-to-dominate leagues.
   167. Max Parkinson Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2318436)
1996 ballot (MP HoMers in bold):

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

MP HoM / not HoM: C. Jones, P. Browning, D. Redding, G. Cravath, J. McGraw, N. Williamson, B. Taylor, C. Keller, R. Fingers, B. Walters (I missed a couple of elections)
HoM / not MP HoM: E. Sutton, F. Grant, P. Hill, M. Carey, P. Reese, E. Rixey, R. Ashburn, J. Gordon, D. Allen, B. Freehan, M. Minoso, K. Boyer, P. Rose, D. Evans, Q. Trouppe

1. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

2. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

3. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

4. Dick Redding

5. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

6. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

7. Rollie Fingers

It’s taken a couple of years, but I’ve become more confident that he’s on the right side of the In/Out line for relievers.

8. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

9. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

10. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

11. Charlie Keller

He's been just off and just on my ballot for a while, but I've just hopscotched him over Burns and Veach, because at the end of it all - this is pretty darn close to the borderline of the MP Hall of Merit, and I'm more convinced that he should be in than either of them.

12. Keith Hernandez

If you had asked me before this project started if I thought that Keith Hernandez was a HoMer, I'd have giggled. But, we're committed to elect 256 players that retired by this year, and damn if Keith isn't one of them. He was possibly the finest left-handed fielder of all time.

***Please note that the gentleman two spots above had a reputation that was nearly as fine as Keith's, and had a longer career, and was in all probability a better hitter. He's about to get 4 or 5 votes this week. I'm just saying.

13. George Burns

Maybe I'm crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and had been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think that he'd either be in already, or at least above Roush.

14. Tony Perez

Good player - too bad that knowing Joe Morgan doesn't get him bonus points here.

15. Urban Shocker

Vaults up a few spots as I rebalance between peak-centred and career-centred pitchers. Right now, he’s just outside of my personal hall.



16-20. Veach, Cash, Nettles, Lazzeri, Tiant
21-25. J. Rice, Bancroft, Sutter, G. Foster, Duffy
26-30. Cey, Reuschel, Konetchy, W. Wood, Trout
31-35. Bridges, B. Bell, B. Johnson, R. White, Munson
36-40. Cuyler, Monroe, Seymour, Youngs, Roush
41-45. Klein, Tiernan, Rucker, Gomez, Singleton
46-50. Tenace, Luque, Willis, Harder, Matlock
51-55. Hooper, Uhle, E. Howard, Cicotte, F. Jones
56-60. C. Hunter, Traynor, Newsom, Campaneris, Guidry
61-65. Mays, T. John, Bonds, Bradley, Grimes
66-70. F. Howard, Blue, Pennock, Wynn, Concepcion
71-75. Kaat, S.J. Wood, Oms, Leach, Chance
76-80. Griffin, Staub, Cepeda, Quinn, R. Thomas
81-85. Ryan, Schang, R. Smith, Nash, Beckley
86-90. Bottomley, Bando, Elliott, Dunlap, Bresnahan

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Roush – 40.
Wynn – 69.
Beckley – 85.
Fox – 99.

I just don’t see any of these as particularly electable. I’m closest with Roush, but I fear that the gap between my HoM and the general one will grow once we get past the 89-92 rush. Note that this comment is a few years old, but it’s already proven true with Boyer & Trouppe (and soon to be Wynn and Fox).
   168. KJOK Posted: March 26, 2007 at 11:57 PM (#2318444)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

4. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

5. KEITH HERNANDEZ, 1B. 35 POW, 311 Win Shares, 110 WARP1, 255 RCAP & .644 OWP in 8,553 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Couldn’t put him ahead of a CF that hit better.

6. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

7. GENE TENACE, C/1B. 26 POW, 231 Win Shares, 73 WARP1, 244 RCAP & .670 OWP in 5,525 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Highly underrated, and very close to Bresnahan in performance.

8. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

9. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

10. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

11. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

12.JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 305 Win Shares, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Better than Kiner overall.

13. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

14.RON CEY, 3B. 21 POW, 280 Win Shares, 95 WARP1, 180 RCAP & .586 OWP in 8,344 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Very good hitter for his position.

15. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

Explanations for those not on ballot in part II below...
   169. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 27, 2007 at 12:02 AM (#2318450)
The election is now over. Results will be posted in about 15 minutes.
   170. Max Parkinson Posted: March 27, 2007 at 12:05 AM (#2318451)
So it didn't end up close after all....
   171. KJOK Posted: March 27, 2007 at 12:06 AM (#2318453)
LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

RICK REUSCHEL, P.23 POW, 240 Win Shares, 96 WARP1, 202 RSAA, 186 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 ERA+ in 3,548 innings. Highly underrated, but doesn’t stand out in the glut of “almost HOM-worthy” pitchers.

RETURNEES:

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, 93 WARP1, 129 RCAP & .483 OWP in 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Would rank Concepcion and Monroe ahead of him.

EDD ROUSH, CF. 10 POW, 110 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .622 OWP in 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

ROLLIE FINGERS, RP. 23 POW, 188 Win Shares, 80 WARP1, 103 RSAA, & 119 ERA+ in 1,701 innings. Even with post season and leverage, can’t match up to starters with that ERA+.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   172. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: March 27, 2007 at 12:09 AM (#2318454)
A quick thought - we might want to put a bigger gap in between the ballot closing and the announcement. If someone has a problem with KJOK's ballot (or any other last-minute poster), they should have time to register their complaint. Close the ballot at 8, announce the results at 10?
   173. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 27, 2007 at 12:11 AM (#2318456)
"And there's no way I'd ever vote for a guy who didn't hit as well as Hernandez, wasn't on the same planet as a fielder, and played in easy-to-dominate leagues."

You do realize his prime was in the 1-league NL, right? What is his dollar value in your system?
   174. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 27, 2007 at 12:45 AM (#2318487)
wasn't on the same planet as a fielder


Dr. Strangeglove wasn't on the same planet as Hernandez. While Beckley wasn't Hernandez compared to their respective contemporaries, Eagle Eye was still outstanding.

A quick thought - we might want to put a bigger gap in between the ballot closing and the announcement. If someone has a problem with KJOK's ballot (or any other last-minute poster), they should have time to register their complaint. Close the ballot at 8, announce the results at 10?


That sounds okay with me, Devin. Anybody object to that?
   175. EricC Posted: March 27, 2007 at 01:10 AM (#2318509)
Not to be picky, Eric, but do you have any comments on Kaat?

Chris and Joe- I mentioned Kaat in my Tommy John comment; basically I see Kaat as Tommy John lite. His placement is the result of a consistent system, though it is the kind of outcome that makes me look again at the peak/career/era balance of my ratings.

EricC where you at with Hernandez?

Eric Ch- I looked at Hernandez, of course. He ended up Hall of Very Good in my system, similar to many other players in the close to, but not quite, PHoM level.
   176. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 27, 2007 at 01:17 AM (#2318513)
Yeah Eric - I always thought Kaat was kind of Tommy John lite too, but once I really looked at everything, I think he is way down the pecking order. He just wasn't all that good, he played in weak leagues for good teams, etc. . . . if I don't like a long career pitcher, there has to be something to it, I'm definitely probably the best friend of that type of pitcher. I like Koosman better than Kaat even, and I don't like Koosman all that much. Frank Tanana even blows him away (15% more pennants added).
   177. ronw Posted: March 27, 2007 at 01:33 AM (#2318521)
OK, so you weren't convinced by rico's explanation. I don't think you have to be. Until we have an actual ballot committee, I think the rule is arbitrarily and unfairly applied, and is not constitutional.

Again, I don't care if challenges are to ballots or questions are asked about ballots, or every voter posts a harsh comment about someone's weird ballot. I oppose any long-time (10+ elections) voter being "obligated" to reconsider his or her ballot.
   178. Cblau Posted: March 27, 2007 at 01:52 AM (#2318538)
Michael Bass, in placing Fred Lynn in 90th place, you wrote:
I know some people don't weigh seasonal stuff much, but the man played 140 games *4* times in his career.
You've got Rollie Fingers in 26th. Fingers pitched 140 innings *1* time in his career. One. Even if you think relief pitchers are 9 times as important as center fielders, this seems inconsistent.
   179. Michael Bass Posted: March 27, 2007 at 02:36 AM (#2318565)
Well, that seems like a pretty false comparison to me. Centerfielders routinely play tons more than Lynn did. Fingers' workload was typical or high for a reliever of his day, and very high compared to more modern relievers. Any vote or high placement of a reliever necessarily gives them a huge boost for leverage, otherwise they'd be nowhere near any ballot ever (which may, of course, be a valid sentiment).

Either way, using a relief pitchers to justify Lynn's gross lack of durability seems like a pretty poor analogy to me
   180. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 27, 2007 at 02:54 AM (#2318575)
Again, I don't care if challenges are to ballots or questions are asked about ballots, or every voter posts a harsh comment about someone's weird ballot. I oppose any long-time (10+ elections) voter being "obligated" to reconsider his or her ballot.


Long-time voters can still make silly and indefensible decisions, though. Are we immune from fanboyitis? I think not.

If I put Mookie Wilson (one of my favorite players) in the 15th spot, I would expect Joe to disqualify my ballot, unless I had a logical reason for him there (which would be impossible, BTW). As someone about to submit their 100th ballot, I still shouldn't receive a pass. The integrity of the project is more important than any one voter, IMO.
   181. Chris Fluit Posted: March 27, 2007 at 04:34 AM (#2318625)
Chris and Joe- I mentioned Kaat in my Tommy John comment; basically I see Kaat as Tommy John lite. His placement is the result of a consistent system, though it is the kind of outcome that makes me look again at the peak/career/era balance of my ratings.

Thanks, Eric. I didn't see that. So many ballots are posted on the last day that I tend to do more skimming than reading. One thing you could do though is to include a line such as "see Tommy John comments" so that it doesn't seem like a "no comment" even at first blush.
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